Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT - 280730Z SEP 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current operational picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (Confidence: HIGH)

RF forces maintain multi-axis pressure across the Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetropavsk, and Zaporizhzhia axes. Heavy reciprocal battles continue in Sumy Oblast. RF claims recent unverified advances in Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, and the occupation of the medical college area in Kupiansk. RF also claims a 5km advance on the Gulyaipole direction, entering Novoivanivka, and new positions south of Novoivanivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF claims full control of Serebryansky forestry and the liberation of Berëzovoye, Kalynivske (UAF denies Kalynivske), Derilovo, Mayske in DNR, and Stepove in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. RF continues to claim an offensive behind Chasiv Yar. UAF has confirmed the liberation of Pankivka, Donetsk Oblast, and Zarichne, and reports eliminating a Russian breakthrough near Pokrovsk. Heavy fighting continues on the Krasnolimanskoye direction. UAF General Staff reports over 95 combat engagements in the last 24 hours, repelling the majority of RF assaults across multiple axes, particularly Kupiansk (18/19 repelled), Lyman (10 repelled), Pokrovsk (15 repelled), Vremivka (9 repelled), and Orikhiv (8 repelled). UAF reports advances on the Dobropillya direction, having liberated 164.5 sq. km. Zelenskyy claims 360 sq. km liberated by Ukrainian forces in recent weeks, and approximately 1,000 Russian servicemen captured. DeepState map updated, indicating ongoing positional changes. RF sources claim a breakthrough on the border of Dnipropetropavsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and RF claims liberation of Dorozhne (Dobropillya area), contradicting earlier RF claims of UAF breakthroughs there.

Recent Updates:

• UPDATED - RF CRUISE MISSILE TARGETING KYIV, BROVARY, IRPIIN, OBUKHIV, VASYLKIV, BILA TSERKVA, LADYZHYN, NEMYRIV, KHMLNYTSKYI OBLAST (DERAZHNIA, STAROKOSTIANTYNIV), BERSHAD, TULCHYN, TALNE (CONFIRMED): (Confidence: HIGH) Multiple cruise missiles (КР) from Tu-95MS strategic bombers are confirmed on various vectors. Confirmed impacts in Kyiv. All missile threats are now assessed to be receding/intercepted. Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) claims at least two Kinzhal hypersonic missiles hit fortified storage facilities for F-16s at Starokostiantyniv airbase, Khmelnytskyi Oblast. NEW: Zelenskyy claims RF launched over 40 missiles, including Kinzhals.
• UPDATED - RF UAVs ON KYIV APPROACH (BORODYANKA, IRPIIN, BUCHA, BOYARKA, VASYLKIV, OBUKHIV, UKRAINKA, BORISPYIL, VISHNEVE): (Confidence: HIGH) A large group of UAVs approached Kyiv. Multiple UAVs were reported over Vyshhorod/Kyiv/Irpin/Bucha. The drone attack is still ongoing despite missile threats subsiding. Main portion of strike UAVs are over Kyiv and Chernihiv Oblasts, continuing to attack Kyiv and its surrounding communities. "Shaheds" have virtually "surrounded" Kyiv, with remnants circling the capital. Mykolaivskyi Vanok reports "minus" on all 5 drones previously reported coming from Ukrainka and Boyarka towards Kyiv. NEW: Zelenskyy claims RF launched almost 500 strike UAVs.
• UPDATED - RF KALIBR MISSILE ON ZAPORIZHZIA & MYKOLAIV OBLAST: (Confidence: HIGH) A Kalibr missile was confirmed on approach to Zaporizhzhia. No new updates on these specific threats, indicating they have likely subsided or been intercepted.
• UPDATED - RF BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (SUMY, LEBEDYN, KURSK GOVERNORATE): (Confidence: HIGH) Ballistic missile threat declared from Kursk Governorate. No new updates on this specific threat, indicating it has likely subsided or been intercepted.
• UPDATED - KYIV DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (CRITICAL): (Confidence: HIGH) Damage to residential buildings is confirmed in Solomianskyi and Holosiivskyi districts of Kyiv. The number of injured in Kyiv has risen to 13 (Kyiv Mayor), with a preliminary report of 27 injured across Kyiv Oblast (ОВА). Tragically, four fatalities are confirmed in Kyiv, including a 12-year-old girl in Solomianskyi district. New debris is reported to have fallen on a building in Sviatoshynskyi district and impacting a non-residential building in Obolonskyi district. A hospital in Kyiv is reported on fire with potential casualties, and RBC-Ukraine reports two fatalities at the Institute of Cardiology in Kyiv. Clichko reports damage to almost 20 locations in six districts. Operatyvnyi ZSU posts images of completely destroyed buildings in Petropavlivska Borshchahivka, Kyiv Oblast, and a journalist from Kyiv24 News confirms casualties including a 12-year-old girl and several other injured individuals, with some fatalities reported, and an ongoing air raid siren. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video and photos showing damaged apartment buildings, civilian vehicles, and emergency services in Kyiv, with a significant smoke plume. Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts images/video of Kyiv impacts. КМВА (Kyiv Military Administration) confirms enemy combined missile-drone strike on Kyiv, with damage to civilian infrastructure in Solomianskyi district, including residential buildings, and preliminary reports of dead and injured. Operatsiya Z (RF milblogger) posts videos of a large, powerful fire in Kyiv. NEW: RBC-Ukraine and DSNS confirm 4 fatalities in Kyiv. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports a kindergarten damaged in Darnytskyi district, Kyiv.
• UPDATED - ZAPORIZHZIA DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (CRITICAL): (Confidence: HIGH) A multi-story residential building in Zaporizhzhia caught fire due to the enemy attack. Casualties in Zaporizhzhia have risen to 27 injured, including three children (Zaporizhzhia OVA). RF launched at least 8 strikes on Zaporizhzhia from 01:00 to 05:30, hitting a multi-story building and damaging 9 private houses and 14 multi-story buildings, primarily in Shevchenkivskyi district. Photos confirm extensive damage. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video of multi-story residential building on fire in Zaporizhzhia. Zaporizhzhia OVA posts video of emergency services responding overnight. NEW: Zaporizhzhia OVA confirms three children (aged 11, 12, 9) hospitalized.
• UPDATED - UAF AIR DEFENSE ENGAGEMENT CONFIRMED: (Confidence: HIGH) UAF confirms multiple interceptions of RF missiles and drones. UAF Naval Forces claim to have destroyed 15 Shaheds. UAF PPO forces have also shot down several drones over Kirovohrad Oblast. Mykolaivskyi Vanok reports all previous "mopeds" to Bila Tserkva are intercepted, and "minus" on the 5 mopeds from Ukrainka/Boyarka, indicating successful interception of these groups as well. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts multiple videos claiming to show Shahed interceptions in Kyiv. STERNENKO (UAF source) posts video showing a Shahed interception by a drone-interceptor. Mykolaivskyi Vanok reports "nothing to comment" on the shelling, implying no new threats in his region. NEW: Mykolaivskyi Vanok provides a remaining drone assessment: 1 Shahed towards Poltava Oblast, 1 in Kropyvnytskyi district, Kirovohrad Oblast, heading west. Air alert for Kyiv has been lifted after almost 7 hours. Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny (UAF source) reports 17 Shahed-136 drones destroyed over southern regions last night, out of "more than a hundred" used.
• UPDATED - POLAND SCRAMBLES FIGHTERS: (Confidence: HIGH) Poland has scrambled its fighter jets in response to the combined attack on Ukraine. TASS also reports this, attributing it to Russian long-range aviation actions in Ukraine.
• UPDATED - HIGH-SPEED TARGET (ODESKYI OBLAST): (Confidence: HIGH) A high-speed target was confirmed on Mykolaiv Oblast, heading towards Kirovohrad Oblast. No new updates on these specific threats, indicating they have likely subsided or been intercepted.
• NEW - RF CLAIMS ADVANCES IN KHARKIV OBLAST: (Confidence: HIGH) RF (TASS via military expert Marochko) claims RF forces advanced in the areas of Tykhyi and Vovchanski Khutory, and expanded the zone of control southwest and west of Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast. RF also claims the Khatnye sector was the most successful for RF forces in the Kharkiv direction over the past week.
• NEW - RF CLAIMS RESCUE OF UAF SOLDIERS ATTEMPTING TO SURRENDER: (Confidence: HIGH) RF (TASS via Russian law enforcement) claims "Zapad" group soldiers rescued two UAF soldiers in Kirovske who were under UAF artillery fire for attempting to surrender with a white flag. This is a likely propaganda piece, but needs to be noted.
• NEW - RF CLAIMS REFLECTION OF UAF COUNTERATTACKS IN SUMY OBLAST: (Confidence: HIGH) RF (TASS via Russian law enforcement) claims four UAF counterattacks were repelled in Sumy Oblast.
• NEW - RF CLAIMS UAF BRIGADE AT VOLCHANSK NOT RECEIVING DRONES DUE TO POROSHENKO'S INTERESTS: (Confidence: MEDIUM) TASS reports, citing Russian security forces, that a UAF brigade near Volchansk is not receiving drones because its commander is promoting the interests of former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. This is a likely disinformation attempt to sow discord within UAF.
• NEW - RF CLAIMS UAF UNITS BLOCKED IN SYNELNYKIVSKYI FOREST, KHARKIV OBLAST: (Confidence: MEDIUM) TASS, citing Russian security forces, claims about 20 UAF soldiers remain blocked in the Synelnykivskyi forest area of Kharkiv Oblast.
• UPDATE - Nationwide Air Alert Re-Issued: (Confidence: HIGH) The nationwide air alert remains highly dynamic, with drone attacks ongoing. Total active air threats (missiles + drones) are assessed as approximately 40. NEW: Air alert in Kyiv has been lifted after almost 7 hours.
• PREVIOUS - Nationwide Air Alert, Kinzhal Launches towards Khmelnytskyi Oblast: (Confidence: HIGH) A nationwide air raid alert was declared for Kinzhal, targeting Khmelnytskyi Oblast. No new updates on these specific Kinzhal threats, indicating they have likely subsided or been intercepted, though Colonelcassad claims hits.
• PREVIOUS - Ballistic Missile Launches from Crimea: (Confidence: HIGH) Multiple ballistic missile launches from Crimea were reported. No new updates on these specific ballistic threats, indicating they have likely subsided or been intercepted.
• NEW - RF Reports Drone Interceptions over Russia: (Confidence: HIGH) RF MoD claims 41 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down overnight across Russian regions. Separately, RF Governor of Tula Oblast reports 4 UAVs destroyed over Tula Oblast. Governor of Bryansk Oblast (AV БогомаZ) also reports 10 enemy UAVs destroyed overnight over Bryansk Oblast.
• NEW - RF Reports Artillery and FPV Drone Attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: (Confidence: HIGH) Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetrovsk OVA) reports that RF forces attacked Nikopol district with heavy artillery and FPV drones overnight, affecting the district center and Pokrovska community. Damage assessment is ongoing.
• NEW - RF Reports on Mariinka Destruction: (Confidence: HIGH) TASS reports, with video, on the near-total destruction of Mariinka, DNR, and features a single remaining resident. This is likely a propaganda piece emphasizing the human cost of the conflict.
• NEW - RF Claims Democratic Elections Impossible in Ukraine: (Confidence: HIGH) RF (Aksyonov via TASS) claims that democratic elections in Ukraine are impossible under the current regime. This is a clear political IO effort to undermine Ukrainian leadership.
• NEW - RF Lifts Airport Restrictions: (Confidence: HIGH) Rosaviatsiya reports that airspace restrictions have been lifted at Pskov, Kaluga, Zhukovsky, and Samara airports. NEW: Rosaviatsiya also reports restrictions lifted at Yaroslavl airport.
• NEW - UAF General Staff Daily Report (08:00 28.09.2025): (Confidence: HIGH) UAF General Staff provides updated operational information including claimed RF losses (1110 soldiers, 7 tanks, 40+ artillery systems) and maps of various directions.
• NEW - RF CLAIMS HEAVY STRIKES ON DRONOVKA (DNR): (Confidence: HIGH) TASS via military expert Marochko claims RF forces are launching dense strikes on Dronovka, the last UAF stronghold near Siversk, DNR. This claim is further elaborated by TASS, stating that the liberation of Dronovka and advancement towards Platonovka would destroy UAF logistics north of Siversk.
• NEW - RF CLAIMS 500-650 DRONES, 55 STRATEGIC AIRCRAFT MISSILES, 8 KALIBRS, 2 KINZHAL, SEVERAL KH-59 MISSILES: (Confidence: MEDIUM) Russian channels (Два майора) are claiming UAF sources reported these numbers for the current RF attack. This is an RF amplification of UAF reports. Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) also reports this. NEW: Zelenskyy's official statement reports "almost 500" drones and "over 40 missiles, including Kinzhals," after "over 12 hours" of attack. This largely aligns with RF milblogger amplification of UAF reports, giving medium confidence to these high numbers.
• NEW - RF Drone Destroys 5 Trucks in Sumy: (Confidence: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports that Russians used a drone to burn five trucks in Sumy. Video shows firefighters on scene. Операция Z and Басурин о главном (RF milbloggers) post videos of firefighters on scene, confirming the attack and damage.
• NEW - RF Attacks Odesa Oblast: (Confidence: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports Russia attacked Odesa Oblast overnight. Video from Оперативний ЗСУ shows firefighters extinguishing a blaze in a damaged building, confirming damage to civilian infrastructure. Операция Z and Басурин о главном (RF milbloggers) post videos of large-scale fires in industrial/urban areas, which could be related to Odesa attacks. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts videos of firefighters in Odesa Oblast.
• NEW - RF Milbloggers Comment on Kyiv Civilian Damage: (Confidence: HIGH) Russian milbloggers (Два майора) acknowledge UAF channels publishing images of a fallen missile and civilian destruction in Kyiv, but frame it as UAF attempting to "evoke pity." This confirms significant damage. Colonelcassad also posts images of Kyiv impacts with "truha" watermarks. Operatsiya Z posts videos of a large, powerful fire in Kyiv, implicitly confirming impacts. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF milblogger) claims Ukrainian airbases in Starokostiantyniv and Vasylkiv, and military targets in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia were hit. NEW: НгП раZVедка (RF milblogger) mocks Kyiv residents for being awake during the attacks ("Kiyevlyane, why didn't you sleep? Maybe something happened?"). Fighterbomber (RF milblogger) reports "12 hours of combined strike on targets in Ukraine."
• NEW - RF Drone Strike in Eastern Grouping Area: (Confidence: MEDIUM) Воин DV (RF source) posts video of a drone strike by the 35th Army of the "Vostok" Group of Forces, targeting enemy personnel and vehicles in a concealed wooded position. The caption indicates destruction of personnel and automotive equipment.
• NEW - UAF GENERAL STAFF MEETING: (Confidence: HIGH) The UAF General Staff, chaired by Lieutenant General Andrii Hnatov, held a working meeting on developing defense capabilities in the context of the dynamic battlefield and rapid technological advancements.
• NEW - UAF 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade Claims FPV Drone Interceptions: (Confidence: HIGH) ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» (UAF source) posts video claiming "Minus 2310 enemy FPVs in a month!" This likely refers to counter-FPV drone operations.
• NEW - RF Milblogger Appeals for Donations: (Confidence: HIGH) Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts multiple videos appealing for donations for "Bears-17" volunteer detachment and a storm unit, specifically for body armor, helmets, and medicine, showcasing supplies being delivered. Два майора (RF milblogger) also posts a video appealing for donations for "stormtroopers on the Slavic direction."
• NEW - RF Milblogger Posts Soldier Morale Video: (Confidence: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF milblogger) posts a video showing military supplies and debris in a dugout, framed as a touching message from a soldier to his family.
• NEW - UAF Command Structure Adaptations: (Confidence: HIGH) Два майора (RF milblogger) reports that UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrsky recently discussed the creation of new branches of troops: assault troops and air defense unmanned systems troops. This indicates UAF is adapting its force structure to the current battlefield.
• NEW - Moldova Elections Uncertainty: (Confidence: HIGH) TASS reports Moldovan President Sandu does not rule out parliamentary election results being annulled due to interference claims. TASS also reports low voter turnout after 3 hours (5.6%). This indicates ongoing political instability and potential for RF interference.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (Confidence: HIGH)

Current conditions are generally clear and favorable for air operations across most of Ukraine. The strongest geomagnetic storm in 3 months (G3) continues to impact satellite communications and GPS for both sides. RF continues to target critical energy infrastructure, resulting in widespread power outages in Chernihiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Extensive urban damage has been reported in Zaporizhzhia, Vinnytsia, Sumy, and Konstantinovka (Donetsk Oblast) due to RF strikes. UAF deep strikes against RF oil infrastructure (Chuvashia) and rocket strikes on Belgorod also cause environmental and structural damage.

Recent Impacts:

• UPDATED - DAMAGE TO KYIV RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS (CRITICAL): (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed damage to residential buildings in Solomianskyi and Holosiivskyi districts of Kyiv. The number of injured has risen to 13 (Kyiv Mayor), with 27 injured across Kyiv Oblast (ОВА). Four fatalities are confirmed (including a 12-year-old girl, and two at the Institute of Cardiology). New debris falls in Darnitskyi, Dniprovskyi, Holosiivskyi, Sviatoshynskyi, and Obolonskyi districts. A hospital in Kyiv is reported on fire with potential casualties. Videos confirm an entire street damaged in the capital (Petropavlivska Borshchahivka). RBC-Ukraine reports a fire at an gas station in Solomianskyi district due to falling debris has been extinguished. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS post video/images of extensive civilian destruction and emergency response in Kyiv/Kyiv Oblast. КМВА also posts damage photos. Operatsiya Z (RF milblogger) posts videos of a large, powerful fire in Kyiv. NEW: RBC-Ukraine and DSNS confirm 4 fatalities in Kyiv. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports a kindergarten damaged in Darnytskyi district, Kyiv.
• UPDATED - ZAPORIZHZIA MULTI-STORY BUILDING FIRE: (Confidence: HIGH) A multi-story residential building in Zaporizhzhia caught fire due to the attack. Casualties have risen to 27 injured (including three children), with 9 private houses and 14 multi-story buildings damaged in Dniprovskyi and Shevchenkivskyi districts. Photos confirm extensive damage to residential areas. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video of multi-story residential building on fire. Zaporizhzhia OVA posts video showing emergency services response to apartment building damage. NEW: Zaporizhzhia OVA confirms three children (aged 11, 12, 9) hospitalized.
• UPDATE - DAMAGE TO KYIV REGION FROM DRONE STRIKES: (Confidence: HIGH) Consequences of the massive drone attack are now reported in 4 districts of Kyiv Oblast, indicating widespread impact. RBC-Ukraine confirms 27 injured in Kyiv Oblast.
• NEW - RF Artillery and FPV Drone Attacks in Nikopol: (Confidence: HIGH) RF forces used heavy artillery and FPV drones to attack Nikopol district and Pokrovska community in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast overnight. Damage assessment is ongoing.
• NEW - Mariinka Destruction (DNR): (Confidence: HIGH) Video from TASS confirms near-total destruction of Mariinka, DNR, showcasing ruined urban landscape.
• NEW - RF Drone Destroys 5 Trucks in Sumy: (Confidence: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports that Russians used a drone to burn five trucks in Sumy. Video from Оперативний ЗСУ shows firefighters on scene. Операция Z and Басурин о главном (RF milbloggers) post videos confirming firefighters on scene.
• NEW - Kharkiv Oblast Civilian Damage: (Confidence: HIGH) Oleh Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv OVA, reports that 7 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes in the past day.
• NEW - Odesa Oblast Attack Damage: (Confidence: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports an overnight attack on Odesa Oblast, with video from Оперативний ЗСУ showing firefighters extinguishing a blaze in a damaged building. Операция Z and Басурин о главном (RF milbloggers) post videos of large-scale fires in industrial/urban areas, which could be related to Odesa attacks. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts videos of firefighters in Odesa Oblast.
• NEW - Chernihiv Energy Infrastructure Damage: (Confidence: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF milblogger) posts video showing a "Geran-2" drone strike on a power substation in Chernihiv Oblast, causing significant fire and smoke, indicating successful targeting of critical energy infrastructure.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (Confidence: HIGH)

RF Forces:

• Ground Operations: RF maintains offensive pressure on multiple axes. Claims of recent advances in Volchansk, Tykhyi, and Vovchanski Khutory in Kharkiv Oblast, with the Khatnye sector being most successful. Claims of repelling four UAF counterattacks in Sumy Oblast. RF (TASS) claims about 20 UAF soldiers blocked in the Synelnykivskyi forest area of Kharkiv Oblast. RF (TASS via Marochko) claims dense strikes on Dronovka, the last UAF stronghold near Siversk, DNR, specifically stating that liberation would destroy UAF logistics north of Siversk. Video from Воин DV (RF source) depicts a drone strike by the 35th Army (Vostok Group) targeting enemy personnel and automotive equipment in a concealed wooded position. TASS publishes a video of a captured Ukrainian soldier from the 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, who describes his unit being destroyed near Kirovsk and commanders losing their positions. Операция Z posts video of "Solntsepyoki" (TOS-1A) destroying UAF UAV control points near Stepanivka. Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) posts videos appealing for donations for "Bears-17" volunteer detachment and a storm unit, indicating ongoing operations requiring material support. Два майора (RF milblogger) posts a video of camouflaged soldiers appealing for donations for "stormtroopers on the Slavic direction." АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF milblogger) posts a video showing military supplies and debris in a dugout. WarGonzo (RF milblogger) provides a morning frontline summary (28.09.25), including maps for Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Kharkiv-Luhansk, and Sumy fronts, reinforcing claims of active engagement on multiple axes.
• Air Activity: RF continues large-scale drone (Shaheds, "Geran-2") and КАБ/FAB strikes. CRITICAL UPDATED: Multiple cruise missiles (KР) from Tu-95MS strategic bombers, ballistic missiles from Kursk Governorate (with Colonelcassad claiming Kinzhal hits on F-16 storage at Starokostiantyniv), and UAVs (main portion over Kyiv/Chernihiv Oblasts, with remnants circling Kyiv) have been used in a coordinated attack. RF MoD reports 41 Ukrainian UAVs shot down overnight over Russian regions, with 4 over Tula Oblast and 10 over Bryansk Oblast. RF forces used heavy artillery and FPV drones against Nikopol district and Pokrovska community in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast overnight. RBC-Ukraine reports RF drone burned 5 trucks in Sumy. RBC-Ukraine reports Russia attacked Odesa Oblast overnight. A UAV is reported in Oleksandriyskyi district, Kirovohrad Oblast, heading west, and another near Konotop, Sumy Oblast. КАБ launches are reported towards Donetsk Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF milblogger) posts video of "Geran-2" drone strike on Chernihiv energy infrastructure. NEW: Zelenskyy claims RF launched almost 500 strike UAVs and over 40 missiles, including Kinzhals, in over 12 hours of attack. Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition (RF milblogger) claims airbases in Starokostiantyniv and Vasylkiv, and military targets in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia were hit. Colonelcassad posts videos claiming combined X-101 cruise missile and Geran UAV strikes on Kyiv and Bila Tserkva.
• Naval Activity: Kalibr missile launches from Myskhako Cape indicate active naval strike operations, though no new updates on these specific threats, indicating likely subsidence/interception.
• Logistics: Rosaviatsiya reports airspace restrictions lifted at Pskov, Kaluga, Zhukovsky, Samara, and Yaroslavl airports. Colonelcassad and Два майора's appeals for donations for military equipment suggest ongoing logistical strains for some RF units.
• Control Measures: RF leadership continues diplomatic engagements and information control. TASS reports, citing Russian security forces, that a UAF brigade near Volchansk is not receiving drones because its commander is promoting the interests of former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. RF (Aksyonov via TASS) claims that democratic elections in Ukraine are impossible under the current regime. The TASS Mariinka video is likely an IO effort. TASS reports that ZNPP Communications Director, Evgenia Yashina, claims UAF is striking the Zaporizhzhia NPP. TASS reports Igor Kimakovsky, advisor to the head of the DNR (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also posts this), claims over 90% of Donbas residents who fell into Ukrainian hands experienced torture. TASS reports Vladimir Saldo claims UAF deliberately strikes civilian targets. Russian milbloggers (Два майора, Операция Z, Басурин о главном, Colonelcassad, НгП раZVедка, Fighterbomber, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition) acknowledge UAF channels publishing images of civilian destruction in Kyiv but frame it as UAF attempting to "evoke pity," after "enemy objects," or mock Kyiv residents. RF recruiting advertisements are being disseminated (e.g., Сахалин). TASS reports Moldovan President Sandu's statement on alliances only with pro-European forces, and potential annulment of elections due to interference claims. TASS reports low voter turnout in Moldova. TASS reports Roman Abramovich is on the "Myrotvorets" website, likely as an IO piece. TASS via Aksyonov expresses hope that after the SMO, residents of DNR, LNR, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions will not feel hostile towards their neighbors. Colonelcassad uses "Gleiwitz scenario of the 21st century" in a post, indicating a focus on false flag narratives. TASS also features a Russian Deputy (Butskaya) discussing educational qualifications, reflecting domestic concerns.

UAF Forces:

• Ground Operations: UAF maintains an active defensive posture, repelling the majority of RF assaults. UAF reports localized advances in the Dobropillya direction. UAF General Staff daily report for 08:00 28.09.2025 provides updated operational information including claimed RF losses of 1110 soldiers, 7 tanks, and 40+ artillery systems. Video from БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF source) shows over 20 units of destroyed Russian equipment near Mirnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, indicating effective UAF defense against costly RF assaults.
• Air Defense: UAF maintains a robust and responsive air defense network. CRITICAL UPDATED: UAF Air Force (PS ZSU) is providing real-time tracking of numerous cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and high-speed targets. UAF has confirmed multiple missile and drone interceptions. UAF PPO forces have shot down several drones over Kirovohrad Oblast. STERNENKO (UAF source) posts video of a Shahed interception by a drone-interceptor, highlighting adaptive C-UAS capabilities. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» claims "Minus 2310 enemy FPVs in a month!", demonstrating effective counter-FPV operations. NEW: Zelenskyy's statement confirms a massive, prolonged air attack (over 12 hours) with almost 500 drones and over 40 missiles, including Kinzhals, confirming the scale of UAF AD engagement. Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny (UAF source) reports 17 Shahed-136 drones destroyed over southern regions out of "more than a hundred" used.
• Tactical Drone Utilization: RBC-Ukraine reports RF drone burned 5 trucks in Sumy, which could imply a successful UAF drone operation.
• Recruitment/Sustainment: Video from Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України showcases psychological recovery for 46th Airmobile Brigade soldiers using new technologies and nature. Оперативний ЗСУ features a National Guard of Ukraine unit (3rd Brigade) appealing for donations for counter-battery radar systems. Dnipropetrovsk OVA posts a video celebrating Machine Builder's Day, highlighting industrial capacity.
• International Engagement: Poland has scrambled its fighter jets in response to the combined attack on Ukraine, indicating an increased NATO defensive posture and support for UAF air defense.
• NEW - Humanitarian Response: Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) shares videos and photos of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine (ДСНС) actively extinguishing a large fire on a car park in Sumy, following a Russian UAV attack. This highlights the ongoing humanitarian response to RF aggression. Similar ДСНС activity reported in Kyiv, Kyiv Oblast (Petropavlivska Borshchahivka), and Odesa. Zaporizhzhia OVA posts video of emergency services responding overnight. RBC-Ukraine confirms 4 fatalities in Kyiv.
• NEW - UAF General Staff Meeting: The UAF General Staff, chaired by Lieutenant General Andrii Hnatov, held a working meeting on developing defense capabilities in the context of the dynamic battlefield and rapid technological advancements, highlighting proactive strategic planning. NEW: RF milblogger Два майора reports UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrsky is creating new branches of troops: assault troops and air defense unmanned systems troops, indicating UAF adaptations.
• NEW - Civilian Sheltering: Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of Kyiv residents sheltering in subway stations, demonstrating adaptive civilian protection measures during air raids.

1.4. Intelligence Gaps and Collection Requirements

• KYIV CITY BDA (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE): Urgently conduct Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the confirmed impacts on residential buildings in Solomianskyi and Holosiivskyi districts, the non-residential building in Obolonskyi district, the building in Sviatoshynskyi district, the Institute of Cardiology, the reported "whole street" in Kyiv, specifically Petropavlivska Borshchahivka, and the kindergarten in Darnytskyi district. Confirm the status of the hospital fire and potential casualties. Verify RF claims of impacts in Vishneve. Confirm the total number of fatalities (currently 4) and injured (currently 13 in Kyiv, 27 in Kyiv Oblast) in Kyiv. Conduct BDA for the gas station fire. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF CRUISE MISSILE BDA (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE): Confirm specific targets hit by cruise missiles in Kyiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, southern Kyiv Oblast, Vinnytsia Oblast, Pervomaisk, Bila Tserkva, Starokostiantyniv, and Derazhnia. Urgently verify Colonelcassad's and Poddubny's claims of Kinzhal hits on F-16 storage at Starokostiantyniv and airbases in Vasylkiv. Verify the overall receding status of all missile threats. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF KALIBR/BALLISTIC MISSILE BDA (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE): Confirm targets and damage for Kalibr missile launches towards Zaporizhzhia, Novyy Buh/Kazanka, and ballistic missiles towards Sumy Oblast and Lebedyn. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF Widespread UAV Threat Assessment (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE): Determine the specific types, origins, and intended targets of the remaining active UAVs (1 towards Poltava Oblast, 1 in Kropyvnytskyi district, Kirovohrad Oblast, heading west), and new group near Konotop, Sumy Oblast. Assess immediate threat to critical infrastructure, UAF forces, and civilian populations. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF Claims Kharkiv Oblast Advances (CRITICAL): Independent verification of RF claims of advances in Tykhyi, Vovchanski Khutory, and expanded control southwest and west of Vovchansk (Kharkiv Oblast). Verify claims of Khatnye sector being most successful. (CRITICAL)
• RF Claims UAF Counterattacks Repelled in Sumy Oblast (CRITICAL): Independent verification of RF claims of repelling four UAF counterattacks in Sumy Oblast. (CRITICAL)
• RF Claims UAF Surrender/Friendly Fire (CRITICAL): Independent verification of RF claims of rescuing two UAF soldiers in Kirovske. (CRITICAL)
• RF Claims UAF Brigade at Volchansk Not Receiving Drones (CRITICAL): Independent verification of RF claims regarding UAF drone supply issues due to political interests. (CRITICAL)
• RF Claims UAF Units Blocked in Synelnykivskyi Forest (CRITICAL): Independent verification of RF claims of about 20 UAF soldiers blocked in Synelnykivskyi forest, Kharkiv Oblast. (CRITICAL)
• RF Claims Kleban-Byk Reservoir (CRITICAL): Urgent and independent verification is required for RF claims of eliminating 10 "Azov"/"Lyut" militants near Kleban-Byk reservoir. (CRITICAL)
• RF Claims of UAF Torture in Donbas (CRITICAL): Independently verify RF (TASS via Kimakovsky, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) claims of widespread torture of Donbas residents by UAF. (CRITICAL)
• RF Claims of UAF Strikes on ZNPP (CRITICAL): Independently verify RF (TASS via Yashina) claims of UAF striking Zaporizhzhia NPP. (CRITICAL)
• RF Claims of Dronovka Strikes (CRITICAL): Independently verify RF (TASS via Marochko) claims of dense strikes on Dronovka and heavy UAF losses near Siversk, and the claimed impact on UAF logistics. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF Claimed Attack Statistics (CRITICAL): Assess the veracity of RF claims regarding UAF reporting on the number of drones, missiles, etc., in the current attack (500-650 drones, 55 strategic aircraft missiles, 8 Kalibrs, 2 Kinzhal, several Kh-59 missiles) against Zelenskyy's statement of "almost 500" drones and "over 40 missiles, including Kinzhals". (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF Drone Attack on Sumy Trucks BDA (CRITICAL): Conduct immediate BDA for the drone attack that burned five trucks in Sumy. Determine specific targets and full extent of damage. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• Odesa Oblast Attack BDA (CRITICAL): Conduct immediate BDA for the overnight attack on Odesa Oblast. Determine targets, extent of damage, and casualties. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF Drone Strike in Eastern Grouping Area (CRITICAL): Confirm the location, specific targets (personnel, vehicles), and precise damage assessment from the Воин DV video. Identify the type of drone used. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade Status (CRITICAL): Independently verify the claims made by the captured UAF soldier regarding the destruction of the 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade near Kirovsk and the loss of command positions. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• Mirnohrad Destroyed Equipment Verification (CRITICAL): Independently verify the claim of over 20 units of destroyed Russian equipment near Mirnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, from the БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video. Confirm types of equipment and battle damage. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF TOS-1A Strikes on UAV Control Points (CRITICAL): Verify the claims by Операция Z of "Solntsepyoki" destroying UAF UAV control points near Stepanivka. Confirm location and assess impact on UAF drone operations. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• UAF 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade FPV Claim Verification (CRITICAL): Verify the claim of "Minus 2310 enemy FPVs in a month!" by ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура». Assess methodology of counting and tactical impact. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• Moldova Election Interference (CRITICAL): Monitor Moldovan parliamentary elections closely for signs of RF interference or influence operations, especially given President Sandu's statement and low turnout. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• UAF New Force Structure (MEDIUM): Gather more intelligence on the development and implementation of UAF's new assault troops and air defense unmanned systems troops, as reported by RF sources. (MEDIUM)
• RF Milblogger Donation Appeals (MEDIUM): Analyze the types of equipment being requested (body armor, helmets, medicine, UAV platoon supplies) in Colonelcassad's and Два майора's appeals to understand specific RF unit needs and potential logistical shortfalls. (MEDIUM)
• RF Soldier Morale Video Context (MEDIUM): Analyze the AРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video for additional insights into RF soldier morale, equipment, and living conditions in forward positions. (MEDIUM)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (Confidence: HIGH)

Capabilities:

• Persistent Mass Aerial Strike Capability (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF maintains an extremely high capability for large-scale, coordinated UAV, guided bomb (КАБ/FAB), MLRS (Smerch), ballistic, and missile attacks across Ukraine. This includes confirmed "Kinzhal" launches (with Colonelcassad claiming hits on F-16 storage at Starokostiantyniv), ballistic missile launches from Crimea and Kursk, confirmed Kalibr missile launches, confirmed cruise missile launches from Tu-95 strategic bombers (now with confirmed impacts in Kyiv and 4 fatalities), and a significant concentration of UAVs still active (Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Sumy, Odesa). RF air defenses remain active and effective over Russian territory. RF MoD claims 41 Ukrainian UAVs shot down overnight, and 4 over Tula Oblast, 10 over Bryansk Oblast. Overnight, RF used FPV drones in conjunction with heavy artillery against Nikopol district. A drone is reported in central Poltava Oblast, heading towards Myrhorod, and another near Konotop, Sumy Oblast. RF drone burned 5 trucks in Sumy. Video from Воин DV (RF source) confirms drone strike capabilities by the 35th Army (Vostok Group) targeting personnel and automotive equipment. КАБ launches are reported towards Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad (RF milblogger) echoes high numbers of drones and missiles used in current attack. Операция Z posts video of TOS-1A destroying UAF UAV control points. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video of "Geran-2" drone strike on Chernihiv energy infrastructure. NEW: Zelenskyy's statement confirms the use of almost 500 drones and over 40 missiles, including Kinzhals, in a single attack. Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny reports over 100 Shahed-136 used in southern regions.
• IO/PsyOps Capabilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF demonstrates advanced and adaptive capabilities in information operations. This is evidenced by Lavrov's statements, Orban's anti-Ukraine rhetoric, and now direct calls from RF Deputy Vodolatsky for Ukrainians to "rise up" and elect a new president. TASS reporting on Polina Agureeva being on the SBU wanted list is another such effort. Vladimir Saldo's statements comparing "anti-Russian polemics" to "Nazi antisemitism" demonstrates extreme rhetoric. TASS's reporting on Moldovan President Sandu's statement regarding pro-European alliances shows attempts to destabilize pro-Western governments and influence Moldovan politics, now including her comments on potential election annulment due to interference. TASS amplifying statements from a soldier claiming UAF methodically destroyed homes in Tetkino, Kursk, despite no military presence, is another specific propaganda piece. Sergey Aksyonov's interview with TASS reinforces a narrative of Russia's regret, justification for the conflict, and criticism of Ukrainian/Western leadership. The claim about UAF drone supply issues due to Poroshenko's interests further exemplifies RF's capacity for sowing internal discord. Aksyonov via TASS claims democratic elections are impossible in Ukraine under the current regime. The TASS Mariinka video is a clear IO effort to blame UAF for devastation. RF Deputy Defense Minister Viktor Goremykin's awards ceremony in Orenburg is a morale-boosting and public relations event. TASS reports that ZNPP Communications Director, Evgenia Yashina, claims UAF is striking the Zaporizhzhia NPP. TASS reports Igor Kimakovsky, advisor to the head of the DNR (echoed by Дневник Десантника🇷🇺), claims over 90% of Donbas residents who fell into Ukrainian hands experienced torture. TASS reports Vladimir Saldo claims UAF deliberately strikes civilian targets. Russian milbloggers (Два майора, Операция Z, Басурин о главном, Colonelcassad, НгП раZVедка, Fighterbomber, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition) are engaging in counter-IO, framing UAF reports of Kyiv damage as attempts to "evoke pity," results of strikes on "enemy objects," or mocking Kyiv residents. RF recruiting advertisements are being disseminated to project strength and purpose. The TASS video of the captured 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade soldier is a clear RF propaganda piece to demonstrate UAF weakness and demoralization. TASS also uses Roman Abramovich on "Myrotvorets" as an IO piece. Aksyonov via TASS hopes for no "enemy neighbors" after the SMO. Colonelcassad uses "Gleiwitz scenario" in an IO post.
• Targeted UAV Warfare Capabilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF maintains structured efforts to enhance drone warfare capabilities, including direct recruitment for specialized UAV battalions and advanced counter-UAV systems. The sheer volume of UAVs (multiple directly targeting Kyiv with confirmed impacts, and other regions) underscores this capability. Overnight, RF used FPV drones in conjunction with heavy artillery against Nikopol district. RF drone burned 5 trucks in Sumy. A drone is reported in Oleksandriyskyi district, Kirovohrad Oblast, heading west, and another near Konotop, Sumy Oblast. Воин DV video confirms targeted drone strikes against personnel and vehicles. Операция Z posts video of TOS-1A destroying UAF UAV control points. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video of "Geran-2" drone strike on Chernihiv energy infrastructure. NEW: Zelenskyy's statement confirms almost 500 drones used in a single attack. Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny reports over 100 Shahed-136 used in southern regions.
• Counter-Battery and Counter-Armor Capabilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF continues to demonstrate effective counter-battery and counter-armor capabilities through artillery and drone strikes, including targeting moving vehicles and Western-supplied equipment. Overnight, RF used heavy artillery in Nikopol district. The Воин DV video shows a drone strike on automotive equipment. Операция Z posts video of TOS-1A destroying UAF UAV control points. КАБ launches are reported towards Donetsk Oblast.
• Logistic Resilience (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Rosaviatsiya lifting restrictions at Pskov, Kaluga, Zhukovsky, Samara, and Yaroslavl indicates some normalization or reduced perceived threat to air travel, potentially easing some logistical constraints. However, RF milblogger appeals for donations (Colonelcassad, Два майора) suggest ongoing, localized logistical shortfalls for some units.
• Tactical C2 and ISR (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The coordinated multiple UAV and cruise missile attacks on diverse regions, now including direct targeting of Kyiv with confirmed impacts, and the confirmed widespread cruise missile launches, indicate effective C2. RF claims of advances in Kharkiv Oblast (Khatnye sector most successful) and dense strikes on Dronovka reinforce effective C2 over ground forces there. Claims of repelling UAF counterattacks in Sumy also suggest active C2. The coordinated heavy artillery and FPV drone attacks in Nikopol indicate effective tactical C2. The Воин DV video shows coordinated drone operations by the 35th Army. The TASS video of the captured UAF soldier gives a sense of RF's ability to interrogate and extract information, highlighting their HUMINT capabilities. Операция Z posts video of TOS-1A destroying UAF UAV control points near Stepanivka, indicating RF's capability to detect and strike UAF C2.

Intentions:

• Intention to Degrade UAF Capabilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF's sustained ground offensives and continuous aerial strikes aim to degrade UAF's combat effectiveness, logistical capacity, and civilian resilience. The recent widespread aerial campaign, including "Kinzhal" (with claimed hits on F-16 storage), ballistic missile threats, confirmed cruise missile launches from strategic bombers (now targeting multiple critical civilian centers including Kyiv with confirmed impacts and 4 fatalities), confirmed Kalibr missile launches, and direct UAV attacks on Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, and Odesa, underscores this intent. Claims of advances in Kharkiv Oblast (especially Khatnye sector), and dense strikes on Dronovka reinforce this intention, aiming to destroy UAF logistics north of Siversk. The TASS report on UAF drone supply issues near Volchansk indicates an intent to exploit perceived UAF weaknesses or internal divisions. Overnight attacks on Nikopol district with heavy artillery and FPV drones demonstrate intent to degrade UAF in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF false flag claims of UAF striking ZNPP also serve to degrade Ukraine's international standing. RF drone attack on Sumy trucks is a specific intent to disrupt logistics. Overnight attacks on Odesa Oblast also degrade UAF assets. The Воин DV video illustrates the intent to directly destroy UAF personnel and equipment. The TASS video of the captured UAF soldier reinforces the intent to demonstrate UAF operational degradation. КАБ launches towards Donetsk Oblast also indicate intent to degrade UAF capabilities. Targeting UAV control points (Stepanivka) demonstrates intent to directly impact UAF ISR and strike capabilities. The Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video of the Chernihiv substation strike confirms intent to degrade energy infrastructure. NEW: Zelenskyy's statement labels the attack "conscious and targeted terror against ordinary cities," confirming RF intent of terror and degradation of civilian life.
• Intention for Information Dominance (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF is committed to dominating the information environment through rapid dissemination of false-flag narratives, amplification of anti-Western sentiment, and efforts to discredit UAF and Western governments. This includes claims regarding Moldova/Transnistria and UAF recruitment/payment issues, and now direct calls from RF Deputy Vodolatsky for Ukrainians to "rise up" and elect a new president. The propagation of images of "liquidated AFU servicemen" with US flag chevrons and reporting on Polina Agureeva's SBU wanted status are explicit attempts to shape public perception and discredit Ukraine. Vladimir Saldo's extreme rhetoric further reinforces anti-Ukrainian rhetoric. TASS reporting on Moldovan President Sandu serves to undermine pro-Western leadership, now including her comments on election annulment due to interference claims. TASS reports about UAF destroying homes in Tetkino, Kursk, and claims of rescuing UAF soldiers attempting to surrender, are part of this effort. Aksyonov's TASS interview serves to reinforce RF's justification for the war and undermine Ukrainian leadership. The TASS report on UAF drone supply issues due to Poroshenko's interests clearly aims to create internal divisions within Ukraine. Aksyonov's statement on the impossibility of democratic elections in Ukraine is a direct political IO to delegitimize the Ukrainian government. The TASS Mariinka video is an IO effort to highlight UAF responsibility for devastation. TASS claims of UAF striking ZNPP and torturing Donbas residents (echoed by Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) are high-impact false flag/propaganda efforts. TASS via Vladimir Saldo continues to claim UAF deliberately strikes civilian targets. Russian milbloggers (Два майора, Операция Z, Басурин о главном, Colonelcassad, НгП раZVедка, Fighterbomber, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition) are engaging in counter-IO, framing UAF reports of Kyiv damage as attempts to "evoke pity," results of strikes on "enemy objects," or mocking Kyiv residents. RF recruiting advertisements aim to project strength and purpose internally. The TASS video of the captured UAF soldier is a direct IO effort to demoralize UAF and bolster RF morale by showing enemy weakness. TASS using Abramovich on "Myrotvorets" is also an IO effort. Aksyonov's hope for "no enemy neighbors" is an IO piece. Colonelcassad's "Gleiwitz scenario" is a clear false-flag narrative push.
• Intention to Consolidate Russian National Identity (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF leadership is focused on consolidating a specific, traditional narrative of Russian identity. RF awards ceremony for SMO participants is a direct attempt to bolster morale and acknowledge military personnel. RF milblogger appeals for donations (Colonelcassad, Два майора) and soldier morale videos (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА) also contribute to this. Dnipropetrovsk OVA's video for Machine Builder's Day highlights Ukrainian industrial identity, implicitly contrasting with RF's narrative.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations (Confidence: HIGH)

• Expanded Air Campaign Effort (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF has significantly expanded and intensified its primary air campaign effort across multiple Ukrainian oblasts, now including confirmed deployment of MiG-31K with Kinzhal missiles (with claimed hits on F-16 storage), multiple ballistic missile launches from Crimea and Kursk, an increased number of strategic bombers (7 Tu-95MS) with confirmed cruise missile launches on new, widespread vectors (targeting multiple central Ukrainian cities, including direct hits on Kyiv with confirmed impacts and 4 fatalities), and newly confirmed Kalibr missile launches from the Black Sea, in addition to UAVs (including a massive concentration in Kyiv Oblast with direct targeting of Kyiv City and confirmed impacts), MLRS (Smerch), and high-speed missiles. This demonstrates an adaptive and persistent strategy aimed at systemic degradation. The dynamic nature of the ongoing missile/drone attack, with some cruise missiles being intercepted and drone activity persisting (Kirovohrad Oblast, Sumy Oblast), indicates adaptive UAF air defense responses and RF adapting follow-on waves. RF also adapted to use heavy artillery and FPV drones in coordinated attacks on Nikopol. RF drone burned 5 trucks in Sumy. RF attacked Odesa Oblast overnight, impacting civilian infrastructure. The Воин DV video shows the 35th Army utilizing drones for targeted strikes. КАБ launches towards Donetsk Oblast signify adaptive air-to-ground strike capabilities. Targeting UAV control points with TOS-1A (Stepanivka) is an adaptive counter-UAV tactic. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video confirms "Geran-2" drone strikes on Chernihiv energy infrastructure. NEW: Zelenskyy's statement confirms a prolonged attack (over 12 hours) with almost 500 drones and over 40 missiles, including Kinzhals, confirming a scaled-up, combined arms air attack. Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny reports over 100 Shahed-136 used in southern regions.
• New Ground Offensive Axis (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF continues to adapt its ground operations, with claimed territorial gains in Dnipropetropavsk and Donetsk, and renewed assault operations in the Huliaipilske direction. RF claims advances in Kharkiv Oblast (Tykhyi, Vovchanski Khutory, Vovchansk, Khatnye sector) and repelling UAF counterattacks in Sumy Oblast show adaptive ground operations. The claim of UAF units blocked in Synelnykivskyi forest points to adaptive encirclement tactics. RF is launching dense strikes on Dronovka near Siversk, indicating an adapted approach to clear UAF strongholds and destroy UAF logistics. The TASS video of the captured 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade soldier mentions commanders losing positions, indicating localized UAF tactical setbacks that RF forces may be adapting to exploit.
• Adaptive IO for Casualties and Justification (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF quickly adapts its information operations to leverage high-profile events, exploit perceived adversary divisions, and justify its actions through various propaganda narratives. Direct political messaging from RF Deputy Vodolatsky calling for regime change in Ukraine represents an escalation in IO tactics. The immediate amplification of images of "liquidated AFU servicemen" with US flag chevrons and reporting on individuals on SBU wanted lists (Polina Agureeva, Roman Abramovich) are adaptive IO tactics. Vladimir Saldo's extreme rhetoric demonstrates an adaptive escalation of dehumanizing rhetoric. TASS reporting on Moldovan President Sandu is an adaptive attempt to destabilize pro-Western governments, including her comments on potential election annulment. TASS reports about UAF destroying homes in Tetkino, Kursk, and claims of rescuing UAF soldiers attempting to surrender, are new adaptive IO efforts. Aksyonov's TASS interview exemplifies adaptive messaging to justify the war and destabilize Ukraine. The TASS report on UAF drone supply issues due to Poroshenko's interests is an adaptive attempt to sow internal discord. Aksyonov's statement on the impossibility of democratic elections in Ukraine is an adaptive political IO. The TASS Mariinka video is an adaptive IO piece. TASS claims of UAF striking ZNPP and torturing Donbas residents (echoed by Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) are adaptive false flag/propaganda efforts. TASS via Vladimir Saldo continues to claim UAF deliberately strikes civilian targets. Russian milbloggers' framing of Kyiv damage as "evoking pity" or targeting "enemy objects" (Operatsiya Z, Colonelcassad, НгП раZVедка) is an adaptive counter-IO tactic. The TASS video of the captured UAF soldier is an adaptive propaganda piece to highlight UAF operational failures and demoralization. Colonelcassad uses "Gleiwitz scenario" in an IO post. RF milblogger appeals for donations (Colonelcassad, Два майора) are adaptive for material support, and soldier morale videos (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА) are adaptive for internal messaging.
• Escalated Hybrid Operations Against NATO (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The confirmed drone activity over Danish Ministry of Defense facilities, disruption of Vilnius International Airport, and drone swarms in Germany, Norway, and the Netherlands indicate a significant escalation in RF's hybrid operations targeting NATO member states. Poland scrambling fighters is a direct consequence of this. TASS reports this, acknowledging Polish claims of Russian long-range aviation activity.
• Domestic Air Defense Posture: Rosaviatsiya lifting restrictions at Pskov, Kaluga, Zhukovsky, Samara, and Yaroslavl suggests an adaptation to reduced perceived threat or operational tempo, allowing for more normalized air travel.
• UAF Force Structure Adaptation (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF milblogger reports of UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrsky creating new branches of troops (assault troops and air defense unmanned systems troops) indicate UAF is proactively adapting its force structure and doctrine to current battlefield realities, specifically to improve offensive capabilities and counter evolving air threats.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• RF Fuel Shortages: A severe and growing fuel crisis is impacting Lipetsk and Sevastopol Oblasts. (Confidence: HIGH)
• RF Logistics Infrastructure Targeted: UAF continues to target RF oil infrastructure and railway logistics. RF drone burned 5 trucks in Sumy, representing a direct hit to RF logistics. (Confidence: HIGH)
• RF Military Procurement Issues: Ongoing reliance on public fundraising for equipment and soldier sustenance highlights deficiencies in official military supply chains. RF recruiting advertisements (Сахалин) emphasize bonuses, suggesting efforts to attract personnel. NEW: Colonelcassad and Два майора (RF milbloggers) are actively appealing for donations for specific units (Bears-17, stormtroopers), requesting body armor, helmets, medicine, and UAV platoon supplies. This confirms continued reliance on public support for critical equipment. (Confidence: HIGH)
• RF Internal Supply Chain Disruptions: Rosaviatsiya lifting restrictions at Pskov, Kaluga, Zhukovsky, Samara, and Yaroslavl may ease some internal logistical constraints for air travel. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Personnel Support Challenges: Claims of injured soldiers being sent to the front and allegations of soldier suicides indicate significant personnel sustainment issues. The TASS video of the captured UAF soldier implicitly suggests RF's operational context includes capturing enemy combatants, which requires logistical support for POWs. (Confidence: HIGH)
• ZNPP Power Status: Conflicting reports on ZNPP's power status highlight ongoing logistical and safety concerns. TASS claims UAF is striking ZNPP to destabilize it. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• RF Centralized C2 and Adaptive Targeting (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF maintains a centralized C2 structure capable of coordinating multi-axis ground offensives and large-scale, adaptive aerial campaigns, as evidenced by the widespread aerial attacks (including Kinzhal (with claimed F-16 storage hits), ballistic, confirmed cruise missile, confirmed Kalibr missile launches, plus massive UAV deployments and direct targeting of Kyiv with confirmed impacts and 4 fatalities). RF claims of advances in Kharkiv Oblast (Khatnye sector most successful) and repelling UAF counterattacks in Sumy Oblast further demonstrate active C2 over ground forces. The claims of UAF units blocked in Synelnykivskyi forest also suggest RF C2 of encirclement tactics. Coordinated heavy artillery and FPV drone attacks in Nikopol indicate effective tactical C2. Rosaviatsiya lifting airport restrictions suggests C2 decision-making regarding internal airspace. RF awards ceremony for SMO participants indicates C2 oversight of personnel recognition. Dense strikes on Dronovka also show coordinated ground efforts. The Воин DV video demonstrates effective C2 for drone operations within the Vostok Group. The TASS video of the captured UAF soldier, if authentic, highlights a failure of UAF C2 to prevent unit destruction. Targeting UAF UAV control points (Stepanivka) with TOS-1A indicates effective C2 for counter-UAS operations. The Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video confirms C2 over drone strikes on energy infrastructure. RF milblogger appeals for donations (Colonelcassad, Два майора) demonstrate decentralized, but coordinated, efforts to support C2.
• RF IO Control and Narrative Management (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF C2 effectively manages the information environment, swiftly deploying narratives to counter threats and exploit opportunities. The direct political appeal from RF Deputy Vodolatsky for Ukrainians to overthrow their government demonstrates a coordinated C2 effort. The coordinated dissemination of "liquidated AFU servicemen" images, the Polina Agureeva story, Vladimir Saldo's extreme rhetoric, and TASS reporting on Moldovan President Sandu (including election annulment comments) show central control over propaganda. TASS reports about UAF destroying homes in Tetkino, Kursk, and claims of rescuing UAF soldiers under friendly fire are also centrally controlled IO. Aksyonov's TASS interview reinforces this centralized narrative control. The TASS report on UAF drone supply issues due to Poroshenko's interests attempts to manipulate perceptions of UAF leadership. Aksyonov's statement on the impossibility of democratic elections in Ukraine is a centrally controlled political IO. The TASS Mariinka video is a coordinated IO piece. TASS claims of UAF striking ZNPP and torturing Donbas residents (echoed by Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) are centrally controlled false flag/propaganda efforts. TASS reports on Moldovan elections and bridge operations are centrally controlled IO to frame events. Russian milbloggers' counter-IO regarding Kyiv damage (Операция Z, Colonelcassad, НгП раZVедка) is also centrally aligned. RF recruiting advertisements are centrally managed. TASS using Abramovich on "Myrotvorets" is a centrally controlled IO effort. Colonelcassad's "Gleiwitz scenario" post indicates a centrally guided false-flag narrative push.
• UAF C2 Resilience Under Pressure (HIGH CONFIDENCE): UAF General Staff provides regular operational updates, and high repel rates for RF assaults, along with effective drone and SOF operations, demonstrate resilient tactical and operational C2 despite intense pressure. Active air defense responses and public alerts show effective real-time C2 under aerial threats. UAF Air Force (PS ZSU) is providing real-time updates on missile and UAV movements across numerous regions, demonstrating robust C2 and situational awareness for the current multi-vector missile and UAV attack. Confirmation of multiple missile interceptions further highlights UAF C2 effectiveness. UAF Naval Forces destroying 15 Shaheds also demonstrates coordinated C2 for air defense. UAF PPO forces shooting down drones over Kirovohrad Oblast, and Khmelnytskyi OVA reporting no casualties/damage, indicate effective regional C2. Mykolaivskyi Vanok reporting "minus" on drone groups indicates rapid battle damage assessment and effective C2 dissemination. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posting videos of Shahed interceptions confirms active PPO engagement and public information dissemination. STERNENKO (UAF source) also posts drone-interceptor video. The БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing destroyed RF equipment near Mirnohrad indicates effective UAF C2 in defense. The UAF General Staff meeting on developing defense capabilities under dynamic conditions indicates proactive and adaptive C2. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» claiming high FPV drone interceptions demonstrates effective, decentralized C2 for counter-drone operations. Dnipropetrovsk OVA posts a morale video for Machine Builder's Day, indicating resilient regional C2 and focus on industrial support. КМВА (Kyiv Military Administration) provides real-time updates on casualties and damage, demonstrating effective local C2 for civilian protection and response. NEW: Zelenskyy's statement provides high-level C2 and public communication of the scale of the RF attack. RF milblogger reports of UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrsky creating new force branches demonstrates UAF C2 adaptation and strategic planning.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (Confidence: HIGH)

• Active Defense and Counter-Offensive Operations: UAF maintains active defense across multiple axes, repelling most RF assaults and making localized advances (Pankivka, Zarichne, Dobropillya direction). UAF General Staff daily report for 08:00 28.09.2025 provides updated operational information and maps, confirming ongoing active defense. The БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video of destroyed RF equipment near Mirnohrad indicates UAF's effective defensive posture.
• Air Defense Effectiveness: UAF air defense remains highly engaged and effective against mass drone, ballistic, and missile attacks, with high interception rates and successful regional operations. UAF Air Force (PS ZSU) is providing real-time tracking of numerous cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and high-speed targets. Confirmed missile interceptions by UAF AD assets further underscore readiness. UAF Naval Forces claim to have destroyed 15 Shaheds. UAF PPO forces shot down several drones over Kirovohrad Oblast. STERNENKO (UAF source) posts video of a Shahed interception by a drone-interceptor. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» claims "Minus 2310 enemy FPVs in a month!", demonstrating effective counter-FPV operations. NEW: Zelenskyy's statement confirms a massive, prolonged air attack (over 12 hours) with almost 500 drones and over 40 missiles, including Kinzhals, confirming the scale of UAF AD engagement. Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny (UAF source) reports 17 Shahed-136 drones destroyed over southern regions out of "more than a hundred" used, showing significant AD success.
• Tactical Drone Utilization: RBC-Ukraine reports RF drone burned 5 trucks in Sumy, which could imply a successful UAF drone operation.
• Long-Range Precision Strike Capabilities: UAF demonstrates capability for deep strikes into RF territory (oil pumping station, Chuvashia) and against critical infrastructure in occupied territories (Zaporizhzhia power outage). NEW: Zelenskyy's statement "We will strike back to force Russia into diplomacy" reinforces the intent and capability for retaliatory strikes.
• Recruitment Efforts: Video from Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України showcases psychological recovery for 46th Airmobile Brigade soldiers highlights UAF's focus on personnel well-being and morale, crucial for sustained readiness. Оперативний ЗСУ features a National Guard of Ukraine unit (3rd Brigade) appealing for donations for counter-battery radar systems, highlighting direct unit-level engagement in force readiness. Dnipropetrovsk OVA posts a morale video celebrating Machine Builder's Day, highlighting industrial capacity supporting the war effort.
• International Support (Poland): Poland scrambling its fighter jets in response to the combined attack on Ukraine demonstrates active, responsive international support for UAF air defense.
• NEW - Kharkiv Oblast Defense: Oleh Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv OVA, reporting 7 settlements hit by enemy strikes indicates ongoing UAF defensive actions and resilience in the region.
• NEW - Odesa Oblast Defense: RBC-Ukraine reports on firefighters in Odesa Oblast, and Оперативний ЗСУ shares images, indicating local response and defense efforts against overnight attacks. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts videos of firefighters in Odesa Oblast.
• NEW - Humanitarian Response: Оперативний ЗСУ shares videos and photos of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine (ДСНС) actively extinguishing a large fire on a car park in Sumy, following a Russian UAV attack. This highlights the ongoing humanitarian response capabilities. Similar ДСНС activity reported in Kyiv, Kyiv Oblast (Petropavlivska Borshchahivka), and Zaporizhzhia. RBC-Ukraine confirms 4 fatalities in Kyiv.
• NEW - UAF General Staff Meeting: The UAF General Staff meeting underscores a proactive and adaptive approach to maintaining and developing defense capabilities in a dynamic environment. NEW: RF milblogger Два майора reports UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrsky is creating new branches of troops: assault troops and air defense unmanned systems troops, indicating UAF adaptations to enhance readiness.
• NEW - Civilian Protection: Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of Kyiv residents sheltering in subway stations, demonstrating organized civilian protection and UAF's commitment to public safety.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• Successes:
  • High Repel Rate: Successfully repelled a high percentage of RF assaults across multiple axes. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Localized Advances: Confirmed liberation of Pankivka, Zarichne, and advances on the Dobropillya direction. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Effective Air Defense: High success rate against RF UAV attacks, and successful air defense operations in Dnipropetropavsk and Kirovohrad. UAF Air Force providing real-time tracking of new missile and UAV groups, and confirmation of multiple missile and drone interceptions. UAF Naval Forces destroyed 15 Shaheds. Air alert in Kyiv lifted after almost 7 hours. STERNENKO (UAF source) posts video of a Shahed interception by a drone-interceptor. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» claims "Minus 2310 enemy FPVs in a month!", demonstrating effective counter-FPV operations. NEW: Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny (UAF source) reports 17 Shahed-136 drones destroyed over southern regions out of "more than a hundred" used, indicating substantial AD success against a large swarm. Zelenskyy's statement confirms the AD engagement against almost 500 drones and over 40 missiles.
  • Deep Strikes into RF Territory & ТОТ: Successful UAV attacks on RF oil infrastructure (Chuvashia), rocket strikes on Belgorod, and power outage in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. NEW: Zelenskyy's statement "We will strike back to force Russia into diplomacy" signals continued intent for successful retaliatory strikes.
  • Effective Tactical Drone Strikes: Significant successes in FPV drone strikes on Pokrovsk direction. RBC-Ukraine reports RF drone burned 5 trucks in Sumy, potentially indicating successful UAF drone strike on RF logistics. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • NEW - Claimed RF Losses: UAF General Staff claims 1110 RF soldiers, 7 tanks, and 40+ artillery systems eliminated in the last 24 hours. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing over 20 units of destroyed Russian equipment near Mirnohrad supports significant RF losses. (Confidence: MEDIUM - UAF claim)
  • NEW - Psychological Rehabilitation Success: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України video highlights effective psychological recovery programs for soldiers. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • NEW - Proactive C2 Planning: UAF General Staff meeting focuses on developing capabilities for a dynamic battlefield, showing proactive strategic planning. NEW: RF milblogger Два майора reports UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrsky is creating new branches of troops: assault troops and air defense unmanned systems troops, indicating strategic force adaptation. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • NEW - Civilian Support & Industrial Resilience: Dnipropetrovsk OVA celebrating Machine Builder's Day highlights continued industrial production capacity supporting the war effort. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Setbacks:
  • RF Advances on Multiple Axes: RF claims unverified advances in Volchansk, Tykhyi, Vovchanski Khutory (Kharkiv Oblast), and claims the Khatnye sector was most successful. RF is launching dense strikes on Dronovka near Siversk, claiming heavy UAF losses. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
  • Civilian Infrastructure Damage & Casualties (CRITICAL): Continued RF strikes cause significant damage to civilian infrastructure and casualties. CRITICAL UPDATED: In Kyiv, 13 injured and 4 fatalities (including a 12-year-old girl, and two at the Institute of Cardiology) are reported. 27 injured across Kyiv Oblast. Damage in almost 20 locations across six districts of Kyiv, with Operatyvnyi ZSU showing completely destroyed buildings in Petropavlivska Borshchahivka. A gas station fire was also reported. In Zaporizhzhia, 27 injured (including three children) with extensive damage to residential buildings. RF artillery and FPV drone attacks overnight on Nikopol district have also caused damage, with assessment ongoing. 7 settlements hit in Kharkiv Oblast. Overnight attacks on Odesa Oblast, damaging civilian infrastructure. A power substation in Chernihiv Oblast was hit by a "Geran-2" drone, causing fire and smoke. NEW: Zaporizhzhia OVA confirms three children (aged 11, 12, 9) hospitalized. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports a kindergarten damaged in Darnytskyi district, Kyiv. Zelenskyy's statement underscores the massive scale of destruction and terror. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Potential Encirclement: RF claims of encircling UAF units in Synelnykivskyi forest, if verified, would be a severe tactical setback. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
  • RF Air Defense Successes: RF's successful interception of numerous UAF UAVs over Russian territory (41 reported down overnight, 4 over Tula, 10 over Bryansk). (Confidence: HIGH)
  • RF Artillery/MLRS/Ballistic/Cruise/Kalibr Strikes on UAF Assets/Cities: Confirmed cruise missile launches from Tu-95 strategic bombers (now with direct impacts in Kyiv and 4 fatalities). RF artillery and FPV drone attacks in Nikopol district. RF drone burned 5 trucks in Sumy. RF attacked Odesa Oblast. КАБ launches towards Donetsk Oblast. Colonelcassad claims Kinzhal hits on F-16 storage at Starokostiantyniv. NEW: Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition claims Ukrainian airbases in Starokostiantyniv and Vasylkiv, and military targets in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia were hit. Zelenskyy confirms over 40 missiles, including Kinzhals, used. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Loss of American M113 APC: Video evidence from RF sources confirms the capture of a damaged US-supplied M113 Armored Personnel Carrier by RF forces in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • RF Claims Elimination of Azov/Lyut: If verified, RF claims of destroying 10 personnel from Azov and Lyut brigades near Kleban-Byk reservoir would be a significant tactical setback. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
  • NEW - RF Claims UAF Friendly Fire: RF claims of UAF soldiers being fired upon by their own forces for attempting to surrender, if true, would be a serious setback related to morale/discipline. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
  • NEW - RF Claims UAF Drone Supply Issues: RF claims a UAF brigade near Volchansk is not receiving drones due to its commander promoting Poroshenko's interests. (Confidence: LOW, highly likely IO)
  • NEW - 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade Destruction Claims: The TASS video featuring a captured UAF soldier from the 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade claiming his unit was destroyed near Kirovsk and commanders lost their positions, suggests a significant localized tactical setback for UAF if verified. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
  • NEW - UAF UAV Control Point Destruction Claims: RF sources claim "Solntsepyoki" destroyed UAF UAV control points near Stepanivka. If verified, this would directly impact UAF ISR and strike capabilities. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (Confidence: HIGH)

• Air Defense Assets: Continued high tempo of RF aerial attacks necessitates sustained supply of air defense munitions and platforms, particularly for drone and missile defense. The confirmed cruise missile launches from Tu-95 strategic bombers, combined with Kinzhal, ballistic missile launches, Kalibr launches, and massive UAV deployments (multiple UAVs directly targeting Kyiv with confirmed impacts and numerous other groups), highlights an immediate, critical need. Mobile C-UAS systems are continuously required. A UAV is reported in Oleksandriyskyi district, Kirovohrad Oblast, heading west, and another near Konotop, Sumy Oblast. The appeal for donations for counter-battery radar systems highlights immediate needs for C-UAS capabilities. The confirmed hit on a power substation in Chernihiv by a "Geran-2" drone underscores the need for robust air defense for critical infrastructure. Zelenskyy's statement of almost 500 drones and over 40 missiles in a single attack highlights extreme resource consumption by UAF AD systems.
• Long-Range Precision Strike Capabilities: UAF relies heavily on Western-supplied and indigenous long-range weapons. Continued support and resupply are critical. NEW: Zelenskyy's statement "We will strike back to force Russia into diplomacy" implicitly underlines the need for continued long-range strike capabilities.
• Munitions and Equipment: Sustained combat operations require continuous supply of ammunition, artillery shells, FPV drones, and combat vehicles. Losses of equipment like the M113 APC necessitate replacement. The intensity of ground engagements, as highlighted by RF accounts of high casualties and new claims of UAF personnel/equipment destruction (Воин DV video) underscores this need. UAF General Staff claims of RF losses (7 tanks, 40+ artillery) imply continuous UAF munition expenditure. The drone attack burning 5 trucks in Sumy implies a need for counter-drone measures and protection for logistics. The БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing destroyed RF equipment indicates successful UAF munition expenditure. The need for counter-battery radar systems is highlighted by a National Guard unit. RF milblogger appeals for donations (Colonelcassad, Два майора) confirm that even RF units are experiencing equipment shortfalls requiring external support, suggesting a comparable or greater need for UAF.
• Personnel and Training: Ongoing recruitment efforts, potentially including increased financial incentives as claimed by RF, indicate a need for continuous personnel intake and specialized training for various roles. The psychological rehabilitation programs highlighted by UAF airborne forces are critical for maintaining personnel mental health and combat effectiveness. The TASS video of the captured 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade soldier indicates ongoing personnel losses and potential impact on training and morale. The UAF General Staff meeting on capability development underscores the continuous need for training and adaptation. NEW: RF milblogger reports of UAF Commander-in-Chief Syrsky creating new branches of troops (assault troops and air defense unmanned systems troops) suggests a deliberate resource allocation for training and equipping these specialized units.
• Medical and Rehabilitation Support: The extensive rehabilitation services in Kharkiv underscore the ongoing human cost. Casualties in Kyiv (13 injured, 4 killed) and Zaporizhzhia (27 injured, including three children) from the current strikes will add to this burden. NEW: Zaporizhzhia OVA confirms three children (aged 11, 12, 9) hospitalized, highlighting the critical need for pediatric and general trauma care.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (Confidence: HIGH)

• RF Propaganda Themes: Victimhood, Destabilization of NATO/EU, Demonization of Ukraine/West, Justification for Aggression/Maximalist Demands, Internal Cohesion/Morale Boosting, Hybrid Warfare Narratives, "Big War" Narrative, Non-Military Propaganda, "Wise Politician" Narrative, Gloating over UAF Setbacks, Regional Destabilization (Moldova/Transnistria), UAF Financial/Personnel Crisis, Western Hypocrisy/Internal Disarray, NATO Cyber War, Russian Technological Prowess. RF continues to push these vigorously. The destruction of a UAF M113 APC will be amplified. RF will likely leverage the detention of George Galloway in London on terrorism charges. RF Deputy Viktor Vodolatsky (TASS) explicitly calls for Ukrainians to "rise up against the Nazi regime, electing another president." RF claims of eliminating Azov/Lyut militants near Kleban-Byk reservoir will be amplified. Images of "liquidated AFU servicemen" with US flag chevrons will be used to reinforce the narrative of UAF fighting for "Western interests." The reporting on Polina Agureeva being on the SBU wanted list will be used to portray SBU as persecuting Russian cultural figures. Vladimir Saldo's statement (TASS) equating "anti-Russian polemics" to "Nazi antisemitism" demonstrates continued use of extreme rhetoric. TASS's reporting on Moldovan President Sandu serves to undermine pro-Western leadership and influence Moldovan politics by highlighting her pro-European stance, now including comments on election annulment due to interference. TASS amplifying statements from an RF soldier claiming UAF methodically destroyed homes in Tetkino, Kursk, despite no military presence, is a new propaganda piece. TASS reporting on "Zapad" group soldiers rescuing UAF soldiers attempting to surrender under friendly fire is designed to portray RF forces as humane. Statements from Sergey Aksyonov (Crimea) about Putin/Trump dialogue opening new possibilities for Crimea reinforce the narrative of RF legitimacy. Aksyonov's interview (TASS) claiming Ukrainian residents "hate ruling elites" and Russia's primary interest is peace, is a continuous effort to sow political discord and justify RF actions. The TASS report claiming drone supply issues for a UAF brigade due to Poroshenko's interests is an attempt to generate internal friction. Aksyonov via TASS claims democratic elections are impossible in Ukraine under the current regime. TASS video report on Mariinka destruction, featuring a sole resident, will be used to emphasize devastation and blame UAF. RF Deputy Defense Minister Viktor Goremykin's awards ceremony in Orenburg is a propaganda piece to boost military and volunteer morale. TASS reports from ZNPP Communications Director, Evgenia Yashina, blaming UAF for striking the NPP is a false flag/propaganda effort. TASS reports from Igor Kimakovsky (echoed by Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) claiming torture of Donbas residents by UAF is another propaganda effort. TASS reports from Vladimir Saldo claiming UAF deliberately strikes civilian targets reinforces anti-Ukrainian rhetoric. Russian milbloggers (Два майора, Операция Z, Басурин о главном, Colonelcassad, НгП раZVедка, Fighterbomber, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition) post aerial images of Ukraine and attempt to dismiss UAF reports of Kyiv civilian destruction as attempts to "evoke pity," targeting "enemy objects," or mocking Kyiv residents. RF recruitment ads are also propaganda. The TASS video of the captured UAF soldier from the 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade is a direct propaganda piece aimed at demoralizing UAF and portraying RF successes. RF milbloggers also gloat over "massive fires" after strikes on "enemy objects" in Ukraine, reinforcing a narrative of successful strikes. TASS using Roman Abramovich on "Myrotvorets" is an IO piece. TASS via Aksyonov hopes for no "enemy neighbors" after the SMO. Colonelcassad's "Gleiwitz scenario" is a direct false-flag narrative push. RF milblogger appeals for donations (Colonelcassad, Два майора) and soldier morale videos (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА) are aimed at boosting internal cohesion and morale. NEW: WarGonzo's "Frontline Summary" provides a continuous narrative of RF advances. Basurin o Glavnom posts a quote from Stalin on traitors and thieves, potentially aligning with current RF narratives of internal cleansing or targeting "corrupt" elements. TASS reports low voter turnout in Moldova, likely used to delegitimize the electoral process if pro-Western parties win.
• UAF Counter-Propaganda/Information Operations (IO) Themes: Exposing RF Atrocities/War Crimes, Highlighting RF Losses/Weaknesses, Mocking RF Disinformation, Diplomatic Pressure/International Support, Internal Resilience/Morale Boosting, Exposing RF Hybrid Operations, Zelenskyy on Retaliation. UAF actively engages in counter-propaganda. Official reporting of damage and casualties in Zaporizhzhia and Kyiv directly counters RF narratives. Counter-narratives will focus on the confirmed impact in Kyiv (13 injured, 4 fatalities, including a 12-year-old girl and two at the Institute of Cardiology) and civilian casualties from widespread missile and UAV attacks. UAF will highlight international support, such as Poland scrambling its fighter jets, and UAF Air Defense successes (e.g., 15 Shaheds destroyed by Naval Forces, multiple missile interceptions, STERNENKO drone-interceptor video, ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» FPV claims, Silly oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny reporting 17 Shaheds destroyed). UAF General Staff (Оперативний ЗСУ) images on RF losses ("Кацапів меншає" - Fewer Kacaps) are direct morale boosters. The БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing over 20 units of destroyed Russian equipment near Mirnohrad is a powerful UAF counter-narrative. The Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України video on psychological recovery is a strong morale-boosting piece. UAF will actively refute RF claims of striking ZNPP and torturing Donbas residents. UAF will also highlight the human cost of the attacks in Kharkiv and Odesa Oblasts. The ДСНС videos and photos of firefighters in Sumy, Kyiv, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia highlight RF's targeting of civilians and UAF's humanitarian response. UAF General Staff meeting photos (Hnatov) project stability and continuous strategic planning. Оперативний ЗСУ features a National Guard unit making a direct appeal for donations for counter-battery radar systems, engaging public support for the war effort. Dnipropetrovsk OVA posts a video celebrating Machine Builder's Day, emphasizing Ukrainian industrial capacity and resilience. КМВА (Kyiv Military Administration) provides real-time updates and images of damage and casualties, directly countering RF narrative control and emphasizing civilian impact. NEW: Zelenskyy's official statement "over 12 hours of massive Russian attack... conscious and targeted terror against ordinary cities" is a powerful counter-narrative. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports kindergarten damage in Kyiv, highlighting RF targeting of civilian, non-military infrastructure. Zaporizhzhia OVA confirms three children hospitalized, humanizing the impact of RF terror.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• Ukrainian Public Sentiment (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Resilience and resolve remain strong but are severely tested by ongoing attacks. The current widespread aerial attack, including confirmed cruise missile launches, Kalibr missile launches, ballistic missile threats, and direct UAV attacks on Kyiv, will severely test this resilience. The renewed nationwide air alert brings renewed anxiety. Casualties in Zaporizhzhia (27 injured, including three children) and now Kyiv (13 injured, 4 killed, including a 12-year-old girl and two at the Institute of Cardiology), with significant damage reported in almost 20 locations and completely destroyed buildings, will intensely impact local and national morale. The massive UAV threat to Kyiv and other cities will cause widespread fear. RF calls for regime change will reinforce determination against RF aggression. Poland's decision to scramble fighter jets will provide a temporary morale boost. UAF Air Defense successes will also boost morale. The ongoing explosions in Kyiv will fuel public anxiety. Damage in Kharkiv, Chernihiv, and Odesa Oblasts will also affect local morale. The ДСНС videos and photos show the courage of emergency services and the solidarity of the Ukrainian people in responding to attacks. The National Guard unit's appeal for donations also indicates a strong societal engagement in the war effort. КМВА (Kyiv Military Administration) addresses ongoing challenges of assisting civilians under attack. Dnipropetrovsk OVA's Machine Builder's Day video aims to boost morale and sense of national purpose. NEW: Zelenskyy's direct address, acknowledging the scale of attack and calling it "terror," aims to bolster resolve and frame the narrative. Operatyvnyi ZSU's video of Kyiv residents sheltering in subway stations highlights public fear but also collective action for safety. Zaporizhzhia OVA's report of injured children will evoke strong emotional responses.
• Russian Public Sentiment (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): Growing discontent is evident regarding fuel shortages, alleged mistreatment of military personnel, and frustration with official narratives. Propaganda continues to shape perceptions, but social tensions are visible. Rosaviatsiya lifting airport restrictions might ease public anxiety about internal security/travel. RF MoD claims of shooting down 41 Ukrainian UAVs will be used to bolster public confidence in RF air defense capabilities. RF awards ceremony for SMO participants aims to boost morale. RF recruitment ads (Сахалин) highlight efforts to attract new personnel. The TASS video of the captured UAF soldier implicitly suggests RF's operational successes, which can boost morale among RF loyalists. RF milbloggers' gloating over fires and damage in Ukraine also aims to boost morale among pro-war segments of the population. RF milblogger appeals for donations (Colonelcassad, Два майора) highlight the need for public support, but also potentially foster a sense of collective participation in the war effort. Soldier morale videos (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА) are directly designed to influence public sentiment. NEW: НгП раZVедка's mocking post about Kyiv residents demonstrates an attempt to project callousness and superiority to an internal RF audience. Fighterbomber's claim of 12-hour combined strikes aims to project strength and success. Basurin o Glavnom's Stalin quote might appeal to a segment of the population advocating for stricter internal control.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments (Confidence: HIGH)

• Continued Western Support (Conditional/Evolving): US military aid remains critical but uncertain. European support faces challenges. NATO is reinforcing its eastern flank. Poland has actively demonstrated support by scrambling its fighter jets in response to the current combined attack, indicating a responsive NATO posture. TASS also reports this, acknowledging Polish claims.
• RF Diplomatic Offensive: Lavrov's UNGA presence is a platform for RF's geopolitical agenda. RF is strengthening non-Western alliances. RF Deputy Viktor Vodolatsky's direct political calls for Ukrainians to replace their president could be a prelude to further diplomatic or IO efforts to delegitimize the current Ukrainian government. Vladimir Saldo's statements (TASS) are likely intended for an international audience. TASS's reporting on Moldovan President Sandu's statement on pro-European alliances serves to undermine pro-Western leadership and influence Moldovan politics, now including her comments on potential election annulment due to interference claims. Sergey Aksyonov's (Crimea) statements about Putin/Trump dialogue opening new possibilities for Crimea are part of this diplomatic offensive. His TASS interview reinforces this diplomatic push to justify RF actions internationally. TASS is also reporting on Moldovan parliamentary elections, including low voter turnout. Aksyonov via TASS claims democratic elections are impossible in Ukraine, intended to delegitimize the Ukrainian government internationally. TASS reports of UAF striking ZNPP and torturing Donbas residents are part of a broader diplomatic offensive to discredit Ukraine. TASS using Roman Abramovich on "Myrotvorets" is also part of this diplomatic offensive to challenge Ukrainian narratives. Colonelcassad's "Gleiwitz scenario" IO piece could be directed at an international audience to deflect blame.
• International Condemnation/Legal Action: The OSCE report on Russian war crimes increases legal and diplomatic pressure on RF. NEW: Zelenskyy's statement, characterizing the attack as "terror," will likely be amplified by international allies and human rights organizations, strengthening condemnation against Russia.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(Confidence: HIGH) RF will continue multi-axis ground pressure across the Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetropavsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy axes. RF will persist in attempting to consolidate and expand its claimed territorial gains in Derilovo, Mayske (DNR), and Stepove (Dnipropetropavsk Oblast). RF will likely continue to push advances in Kharkiv Oblast (Tykhyi, Vovchanski Khutory, Vovchansk, especially the Khatnye sector) and test UAF defenses in Sumy Oblast, as indicated by claims of repelling UAF counterattacks. Reconnaissance and probing attacks from the Yunakovka bridgehead in Sumy Oblast will continue to fix UAF forces. RF units will likely continue localized storming operations, accepting high casualties if tactical objectives are deemed sufficiently important. The alleged blocking of UAF units in Synelnykivskyi forest will be exploited. RF will likely focus on containing any UAF tactical gains in the Dobropillya salient. RF will continue heavy artillery and FPV drone attacks in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast (Nikopol district). RF will continue dense strikes on Dronovka near Siversk to attempt to clear UAF strongholds and destroy UAF logistics north of Siversk. Targeted drone strikes against personnel and vehicles in concealed positions, as seen in the Воин DV video, will continue. RF will also attempt to exploit UAF unit destruction (e.g., 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade near Kirovsk) for further tactical advances. RF will continue to target UAF UAV control points using systems like TOS-1A (Stepanivka).

(Confidence: HIGH) RF is currently executing and will continue a focused, high-intensity aerial strike campaign, which is now assessed to be aimed at maximum degradation and psychological impact, though the missile phase is largely receding, with drone threats persisting. This will primarily target critical energy infrastructure, airfields, and urban centers, particularly Kyiv City (with confirmed impacts, including residential buildings and the Institute of Cardiology, with 13 injured and 4 killed, kindergarten also hit), Bila Tserkva, Kharkiv (including city), Vinnytsia, Chernihiv (confirmed energy infrastructure hit), Zaporizhzhia (with confirmed residential fires, 27 injured, three children hospitalized), Poltava (including central Poltava Oblast towards Myrhorod), Khmelnytskyi (with claimed Kinzhal hits on F-16 storage), Cherkasy, Pervomaisk, Mykolaiv/Kirovohrad (Kropyvnytskyi district, Oleksandriyskyi district), Balta (Odeskyi Oblast), Fastiv, Sumy Oblast (Konotop area, with new UAV groups), and Donetsk Oblast (КАБ launches). This strike will heavily utilize UAVs (Shaheds/Gerans, including multiple directly targeting Kyiv, Kharkiv city, Sumy, and Odesa). The confirmed cruise missile launches from Tu-95 strategic bombers, in addition to previously reported Kinzhal, ballistic missile launches, and Kalibr missile launches, indicate a renewed and extremely dangerous phase of the widespread air campaign. MLRS (Smerch) and high-speed targets will also be used, aiming for widespread disruption and psychological impact ahead of winter. RF air defenses in border regions (Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk, Penza, Lipetsk, Kaluga, Samara, Pskov, Yaroslavl, Zhukovsky) will remain on high alert. Rosaviatsiya lifting restrictions at Pskov, Kaluga, Zhukovsky, Samara, and Yaroslavl suggests some degree of confidence in their domestic air defense or a reduction in perceived threat from UAF deep strikes. RF will also continue targeted drone strikes on logistics, as seen in Sumy. NEW: Zelenskyy's statement confirming almost 500 drones and over 40 missiles indicates RF's sustained capability and intent for such mass attacks.

(Confidence: HIGH) RF will escalate hybrid operations against NATO member states, likely continuing drone overflights or disruptive activities targeting sensitive military and civilian infrastructure in the Baltic Sea region (Denmark, Lithuania, Norway, Netherlands, Germany), and possibly expanding to new regions. Poland's fighter scramble is a direct consequence. Concurrently, RF will intensify its information operations, focusing on:

1. Denying responsibility for provocations against NATO and shifting blame, leveraging the "NATO Cyber Headquarters against Russia" narrative, and potentially using "Gleiwitz scenario" narratives (Colonelcassad).
2. Amplifying narratives of NATO/EU disunity and portraying Western nations as aggressive or subservient to the US, leveraging statements from figures like Orban. Vladimir Saldo's statements comparing "anti-Russian polemics" to "Nazi antisemitism" will be amplified. TASS's reporting on Moldovan President Sandu will be used to destabilize Moldova and influence its political trajectory, especially given her comments on potential election annulment due to interference and low voter turnout.
3. Undermining Ukraine's legitimacy and morale, particularly through narratives of "atrocities" (e.g., torture claims by Kimakovsky/Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ZNPP strikes by Yashina), "tightening mobilization," and denying territorial integrity. RF will aggressively push for regime change in Ukraine through IO, as evidenced by Deputy Vodolatsky's statements and the amplification of images of "liquidated AFU servicemen" with US flag chevrons. RF will also use the SBU wanted list for Russian actress Polina Agureeva and Roman Abramovich on "Myrotvorets" as points of criticism. TASS claims about UAF destroying homes in Tetkino, Kursk, and claims of rescuing UAF soldiers attempting to surrender, will be heavily disseminated. Aksyonov's TASS interview will be widely disseminated to justify RF's actions and blame Ukraine/West, and express hope for "no enemy neighbors." The TASS report on UAF drone supply issues near Volchansk will be used to create internal divisions within Ukraine. Aksyonov's statement on the impossibility of democratic elections in Ukraine will be a key IO piece. The TASS Mariinka video will be used to highlight devastation and blame UAF. RF milbloggers will continue to frame UAF reports of civilian damage as attempts to "evoke pity" or results of strikes on "enemy objects" (Операция Z, Colonelcassad, НгП раZVедка). The TASS video of the captured UAF soldier will be used to demonstrate UAF weakness and bolster RF morale. RF recruitment efforts will be publicized as evidence of military strength.
4. Promoting RF's diplomatic narrative of being open to talks on "root causes" while maintaining maximalist demands. Aksyonov's statements on Putin/Trump dialogue opening opportunities for Crimea will be used to legitimize RF claims.
5. Exploiting regional tensions, specifically amplifying claims about Moldova and SBU involvement in Transnistria, and now alleging NATO bases in Moldova for "logistic control," to sow instability. RF will monitor and potentially exploit the ongoing Moldovan elections, including reporting on diaspora voting and infrastructure, and TASS reporting on President Sandu's political stances.
6. Domestic warnings on cyber security (MVD report) will be used to demonstrate government concern for its citizens.
7. Internal morale boosting activities such as awards ceremonies (Orenburg) will continue to be publicized. RF milblogger appeals for donations (Colonelcassad, Два майора) and soldier morale videos (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА) will continue to be disseminated to foster internal cohesion and support.

(Confidence: HIGH) RF will continue its efforts to financially integrate occupied Ukrainian territories through mechanisms like the "digital ruble," aiming to solidify administrative control. Internal RF domestic policies will continue to be implemented, indicating an increasing effort to control civilian life.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(Confidence: MEDIUM) RF assesses that NATO's response to the escalating drone provocations and the current geopolitical climate (China's demands, Israeli conflict) is weak and launches a coordinated, large-scale multi-domain offensive operation:

1. Ground Offensive: RF commits significant operational reserves to crush the UAF salient at Dobropillya, aiming for a decisive encirclement and destruction of UAF units. Simultaneously, a secondary major ground assault is launched from the Yunakovka bridgehead towards Sumy City, employing armored thrusts and airborne elements, designed to open a new operational front and stretch UAF defenses to their breaking point. This would involve a significant disregard for personnel losses in pursuit of strategic objectives. RF will also launch simultaneous ground assaults in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, leveraging recent tactical gains like the capture of the M113 APC, and intensify offensive actions in Kharkiv Oblast (Vovchansk area, Khatnye sector), including attempting to encircle any remaining UAF units in Synelnykivskyi forest. A simultaneous escalation of heavy artillery and FPV drone attacks in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast (Nikopol district) to fix UAF forces, coupled with a renewed push on Dronovka near Siversk to fully cut UAF logistics. RF would exploit the claimed destruction of the 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade near Kirovsk for further tactical gains, potentially coupled with a new thrust from the Krasnolimanskoye direction. RF would also scale up TOS-1A strikes against UAF UAV control points.
2. Air/Missile Offensive: Building on the currently executing "massive strike" with confirmed cruise missile launches, RF unleashes a catastrophic, prolonged missile and drone campaign against Kyiv and all major Ukrainian population centers, targeting all remaining government infrastructure, critical air defense systems, and the entire energy grid, aimed at causing widespread collapse, societal paralysis, and a complete, irreversible blackout. This strike would utilize all available strategic bombers (7 Tu-95MS, Tu-160) with sustained cruise missile launches, hypersonic (Kinzhal from MiG-31K, with claimed hits on F-16 storage), ballistic (from Crimea and now Kursk Governorate to Sumy/Lebedyn), Kalibr (from Black Sea platforms, including one confirmed towards Zaporizhzhia, and two others towards Novyy Buh/Kazanka), and conventional ballistic missiles, alongside mass drone swarm attacks (including multiple UAVs directly targeting Kyiv with confirmed impacts and numerous other groups, including new groups from northern Sumy and Vinnytsia, and a drone in central Poltava Oblast towards Myrhorod), and active Smerch MLRS and high-speed targets (Mykolaiv/Kirovohrad, Balta), launched from multiple vectors, to overwhelm UAF air defenses. This would involve rapid re-arming and re-launch of strategic assets previously involved in the initial wave, sustained over 24-48 hours. Targeted drone strikes against logistics nodes, such as those seen in Sumy, would be scaled up significantly. Sustained КАБ launches on Donetsk Oblast would aim to break UAF defenses. Confirmed drone strikes on critical energy infrastructure, such as the Chernihiv substation, would be scaled up nationwide. This MDCOA would incorporate the nearly 500 drones and over 40 missiles claimed by Zelenskyy as a baseline, escalating the numbers and persistence of such attacks.
3. Hybrid Warfare Escalation: Concurrently, RF launches coordinated cyberattacks against NATO critical infrastructure (energy, financial systems, transportation, military C2), coupled with drone swarm attacks against multiple sensitive military installations within NATO territory (e.g., airbases, command centers) and strategic infrastructure (e.g., ports, airports), aimed at overwhelming NATO response capabilities and directly challenging the credibility of Article 5. RF also conducts covert sabotage operations against critical infrastructure in Western Europe, potentially including acts of terrorism in response to perceived UAF provocations in NATO countries. RF exploits the Moldovan political instability and its fabricated "forceful scenario" narrative, now compounded by claims of NATO bases in Moldova, to further destabilize the country, potentially creating a new flashpoint and diverting international attention. RF launches overt and covert efforts to destabilize the Ukrainian government, leveraging IO to call for regime change and foment internal unrest, coinciding with the military offensive. This would include direct interference in the ongoing Moldovan elections to install a pro-RF government, potentially using Sandu's pro-European stance as a wedge.

This MDCOA would be designed to shatter UAF command and control, force a catastrophic choice on the allocation of strategic reserves, and directly challenge NATO's deterrence posture, potentially initiating a broader conflict, while simultaneously aiming to achieve a decisive victory in Ukraine before international response can fully materialize.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Immediate (0-6 hours - CRITICAL, ACTIVELY UNFOLDING):
  • Decision Point: UAF Air Command is currently making immediate decisions regarding the deployment of interceptors, activation of additional air defense systems, and potential dispersal of high-value assets in response to the ongoing widespread UAV threats, though missile threats appear to be receding, with drone threats persist, particularly towards central Poltava Oblast (towards Myrhorod) and in Kropyvnytskyi district, Kirovohrad Oblast, and near Konotop, Sumy Oblast. This specifically targets Kyiv (with confirmed impacts), Poltava, Cherkasy, southern Kyiv Oblast, Vinnytsia Oblast, Pervomaisk, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Marhanets, Kharkiv (including city), Pokrovsk, Kupiansk (aviation strike assets), Sumy Oblast (new UAV groups, КАБ launches, and now confirmed cruise missiles and ballistic missiles), Vinnytsia Oblast (new UAV groups and confirmed cruise missiles), and other regions, including Starokostiantyniv, Derazhnia. The renewed nationwide alert demands immediate and adaptive AD.
  • Timeline: RF ground forces will attempt to stabilize or exploit the Dobropillya situation, and continue localized engagements in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast (Nikopol) and Kharkiv Oblast (Khatnye, Vovchansk), and dense strikes on Dronovka. Targeted drone strikes against personnel and vehicles in concealed positions, as per the Воин DV video, will continue. Exploitation of claimed destruction of UAF 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade near Kirovsk may commence. Continued, intense RF aerial activity (UAVs) can be expected across eastern, northern, central, and southern Ukraine, though missile threats appear to be subsiding, while drone threats persist, following Zelenskyy's confirmation of a prolonged, 12-hour attack. КАБ launches will continue towards Donetsk Oblast. RF will attempt to exploit success in targeting UAV control points near Stepanivka.
• Near-Term (6-48 hours):
  • Decision Point: UAF High Command must decide on the level of response to the current widespread RF aerial strikes and further RF territorial gains in Dnipropetropavsk/Donetsk/Kharkiv/Sumy, as well as any escalation of hybrid attacks against NATO. UAF must decide on resource allocation for emergency services and infrastructure repair following the current attacks, especially in Zaporizhzhia, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, and Odesa. The UAF General Staff meeting on capability development indicates ongoing strategic discussions for these decisions. UAF High Command must also prioritize the integration and training of new "assault troops" and "air defense unmanned systems troops," as reported by RF sources, and allocate resources accordingly.
  • Timeline: Intensified RF ground operations are likely in Dobropillya, Huliaipilske, Siversk, and Kharkiv directions. Post-strike Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for Kinzhal/ballistic/cruise/Kalibr strikes will be critical to inform recovery and defensive operations. NATO allies will likely convene urgent consultations regarding RF hybrid operations and the potential for Article 5 implications, especially following Poland's fighter scramble. Continued RF information operations regarding Moldova, UAF financial issues, the "NATO Cyber Headquarters," and calls for regime change in Ukraine are expected. RF will closely monitor Moldovan elections, potentially with an intent to interfere, particularly given President Sandu's concerns and low voter turnout.

6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. IMMEDIATE AIR DEFENSE ACTIVATION & CIVILIAN ALERT (CRITICAL MULTI-VECTOR DRONE THREAT): All available air defense systems must be at their highest readiness level and actively engaged against the persistent and multi-vector drone threats, now focused on central Poltava Oblast (towards Myrhorod), Kropyvnytskyi district in Kirovohrad Oblast (heading west), and near Konotop, Sumy Oblast. Prioritize mobile C-UAS and missile interceptor deployment to protect critical energy infrastructure (especially after the Chernihiv substation hit) and population centers from current and anticipated follow-on drone strikes. Maintain public awareness for potential renewed missile threats despite current receding status. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE - GIVEN ONGOING DRONE THREATS, CONFIRMED BY ZELENSKYY'S STATEMENT)
2. ISR Re-tasking (BDA, Strategic Asset Status, UAV Tracking & New UAV Vectors, Aviation Strike Threat, Kalibr Launches, Ballistic Launches, Kleban-Byk claims, Kharkiv Advances, UAF Surrender/Friendly Fire, UAF Drone Supply, Synelnykivskyi Forest, Nikopol Damage, Mariinka, ZNPP, Donbas Torture, Dronovka Strikes, RF Attack Stats, Sumy Trucks, Odesa Attacks, RF Drone Strikes (Воин DV), 63rd Brigade Status, Mirnohrad Equipment, RF TOS-1A Strikes, Chernihiv Substation, Kindergarten Damage, Moldova Elections, UAF New Force Structure): Prioritize all available ISR assets (HUMINT, SIGINT, IMINT, OSINT verification) to conduct immediate BDA for Kinzhal, ballistic, cruise, and Kalibr missile strikes. Urgently verify Colonelcassad's and Poddubny's claims of Kinzhal hits on F-16 storage at Starokostiantyniv and airbases in Vasylkiv. Focus on real-time tracking of current UAV, MLRS, and high-speed missile trajectories, especially the remaining active UAVs. Provide immediate updates on any observed aviation strike assets (КАБ/FAB) threatening Donetsk Oblast. Urgently verify RF claims of eliminating Azov/Lyut militants and equipment near Kleban-Byk reservoir, RF claims of advances in Kharkiv Oblast (especially Khatnye sector), RF claims of repelling UAF counterattacks in Sumy, RF claims of UAF soldiers attempting to surrender under friendly fire, RF claims of UAF drone supply issues near Volchansk, and RF claims of UAF units blocked in Synelnykivskyi forest. Conduct BDA for Nikopol district following overnight attacks. Analyze TASS Mariinka video for tactical insights into urban destruction. Urgently verify RF claims of UAF striking ZNPP and torturing Donbas residents. Urgently verify RF claims of dense strikes on Dronovka and UAF losses near Siversk. Assess the veracity of RF claims regarding UAF reporting on attack statistics against Zelenskyy's statement. Conduct BDA for the drone attack on 5 trucks in Sumy. Conduct BDA for the overnight attacks on Odesa Oblast. Confirm the location, specific targets, and precise damage assessment from the Воин DV video. Independently verify the claims made by the captured UAF soldier regarding the destruction of the 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade near Kirovsk. Independently verify the claim of over 20 units of destroyed Russian equipment near Mirnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, from the БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video. Urgently verify RF claims of TOS-1A strikes on UAF UAV control points near Stepanivka, assess impact on UAF drone operations. Conduct immediate BDA for the Chernihiv power substation hit by "Geran-2". Assess the veracity of ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура»'s FPV drone interception claims. Conduct BDA for kindergarten damage in Darnytskyi district, Kyiv. Monitor Moldovan parliamentary elections for interference. Collect intelligence on the formation and training of UAF's new assault troops and air defense unmanned systems troops. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
3. Enhanced Cross-Border Threat Assessment (Sumy/Kharkiv & Transnistria): Elevate threat assessment for renewed RF ground offensive in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Position mobile reserves and conduct pre-emptive artillery strikes on suspected RF staging areas/logistics near Yunakovka, Volchansk, Tykhyi, Vovchanski Khutory, and Dronovka. Intensify monitoring of the Transnistria region for any unusual troop movements or heightened rhetoric. Closely monitor Moldovan parliamentary elections for any RF IO attempts to influence them. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
4. Strengthen Counter-Hybrid Defenses & NATO Coordination: Share all available intelligence on RF drone capabilities and tactics with NATO partners. Urgently request heightened electronic warfare support and shared air domain awareness. Implement enhanced physical security protocols around critical infrastructure nationwide. Proactively counter RF narratives about "NATO Cyber Headquarters against Russia" and "Gleiwitz scenario." Coordinate closely with Poland following their fighter jet scramble. (CRITICAL/HIGH)
5. Proactive Information Warfare Counter-Narratives: Develop and immediately disseminate proactive counter-narratives to RF propaganda, specifically addressing RF Deputy Vodolatsky's calls for regime change in Ukraine, RF claims of eliminating Azov/Lyut militants, the images of "liquidated AFU servicemen" with US flag chevrons, the reporting on Polina Agureeva and Roman Abramovich, Vladimir Saldo's extreme rhetoric, RF claims of UAF destroying homes in Tetkino, Kursk, RF claims of UAF soldiers attempting to surrender under friendly fire, Aksyonov's TASS interview (including "no enemy neighbors" narrative), the TASS report on UAF drone supply issues near Volchansk, Aksyonov's claims that democratic elections in Ukraine are impossible, RF claims of dense strikes on Dronovka, RF milbloggers' attempts to frame Kyiv damage as "evoking pity" or results of strikes on "enemy objects," and the mocking tone of НгП раZVедка. Counter RF claims of UAF striking ZNPP and torturing Donbas residents. Counter RF narratives of military heroism by highlighting the high cost in personnel losses for RF units and the indiscriminate targeting of civilians in Kyiv (13 injured, 4 killed, kindergarten hit) and Zaporizhzhia (27 injured, including three children). Leverage the ДСНС videos and photos to highlight RF's targeting of civilians and UAF's humanitarian response capabilities. Highlight UAF psychological rehabilitation efforts. Leverage the UAF General Staff meeting photos to project stability and strategic foresight. Emphasize industrial resilience (Dnipropetrovsk OVA Machine Builder's Day). NEW: Amplify Zelenskyy's statement calling the attack "conscious and targeted terror against ordinary cities" to an international audience. (HIGH)
6. Resource Prioritization (Long-Range Precision Strike & Air Defense): Advocate forcefully for the immediate delivery of Western long-range precision strike capabilities and additional modern air defense systems (including Patriots). Highlight their proven effectiveness. The current wave of cruise missile, Kalibr, ballistic missile, and drone attacks, particularly the direct impacts in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia and the Chernihiv substation hit, underscores this urgent requirement. Support the National Guard's appeal for counter-battery radar systems. NEW: Zelenskyy's statement confirming almost 500 drones and over 40 missiles, including Kinzhals, emphasizes the urgent need for comprehensive air defense systems to counter such scale and sophistication. The confirmed kindergarten strike in Kyiv further underscores the need for robust AD. (HIGH)
7. Monitor RF Logistics & Internal Dissension: Intensify ISR on fuel and transportation networks within Lipetsk, Sevastopol, and other RF regions. Monitor for signs of increased public discontent. Target vulnerable logistics nodes. Track implementation and impact of RF's new driving license revocation policy and the expanded airport restrictions. Analyze RF milblogger donation appeals (Colonelcassad, Два майора) to identify specific unit shortfalls and potential for exploitation. (MEDIUM)
8. Target RF C2: Continue to prioritize targeting RF command and control nodes, especially UAV C2 points and command posts overseeing ground offensives. Precision strikes on these targets directly degrade RF's ability to coordinate adaptive operations. (HIGH)