Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT - 280600Z SEP 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current operational picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (Confidence: HIGH)

RF forces maintain multi-axis pressure across the Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetropavsk, and Zaporizhzhia axes. Heavy reciprocal battles continue in Sumy Oblast. RF claims recent unverified advances in Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, and the occupation of the medical college area in Kupiansk. RF also claims a 5km advance on the Gulyaipole direction, entering Novoivanivka, and new positions south of Novoivanivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF claims full control of Serebryansky forestry and the liberation of Berëzovoye, Kalynivske (UAF denies Kalynivske), Derilovo, Mayske in DNR, and Stepove in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. RF continues to claim an offensive behind Chasiv Yar. UAF has confirmed the liberation of Pankivka, Donetsk Oblast, and Zarichne, and reports eliminating a Russian breakthrough near Pokrovsk. Heavy fighting continues on the Krasnolimanskoye direction. UAF General Staff reports over 95 combat engagements in the last 24 hours, repelling the majority of RF assaults across multiple axes, particularly Kupiansk (18/19 repelled), Lyman (10 repelled), Pokrovsk (15 repelled), Vremivka (9 repelled), and Orikhiv (8 repelled). UAF reports advances on the Dobropillya direction, having liberated 164.5 sq. km. Zelenskyy claims 360 sq. km liberated by Ukrainian forces in recent weeks, and approximately 1,000 Russian servicemen captured. DeepState map updated, indicating ongoing positional changes. RF sources claim a breakthrough on the border of Dnipropetropavsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and RF claims liberation of Dorozhne (Dobropillya area), contradicting earlier RF claims of UAF breakthroughs there.

Recent Updates:

• UPDATED - RF CRUISE MISSILE TARGETING KYIV, BROVARY, IRPIIN, OBUKHIV, VASYLKIV, BILA TSERKVA, LADYZHYN, NEMYRIV, KHMLNYTSKYI OBLAST (DERAZHNIA, STAROKOSTIANTYNIV), BERSHAD, TULCHYN, TALNE (CONFIRMED): (Confidence: HIGH) Multiple cruise missiles (КР) from Tu-95MS strategic bombers are confirmed on various vectors. Confirmed impacts in Kyiv. All missile threats are now assessed to be receding/intercepted.
• UPDATED - RF UAVs ON KYIV APPROACH (BORODYANKA, IRPIIN, BUCHA, BOYARKA, VASYLKIV, OBUKHIV, UKRAINKA, BORISPYIL, VISHNEVE): (Confidence: HIGH) A large group of UAVs approached Kyiv. Multiple UAVs were reported over Vyshhorod/Kyiv/Irpin/Bucha. The drone attack is still ongoing despite missile threats subsiding. Main portion of strike UAVs are over Kyiv and Chernihiv Oblasts, continuing to attack Kyiv and its surrounding communities. "Shaheds" have virtually "surrounded" Kyiv, with remnants circling the capital. Mykolaivskyi Vanok reports "minus" on all 5 drones previously reported coming from Ukrainka and Boyarka towards Kyiv.
• UPDATED - RF KALIBR MISSILE ON ZAPORIZHZIA & MYKOLAIV OBLAST: (Confidence: HIGH) A Kalibr missile was confirmed on approach to Zaporizhzhia. No new updates on these specific threats, indicating they have likely subsided or been intercepted.
• UPDATED - RF BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (SUMY, LEBEDYN, KURSK GOVERNORATE): (Confidence: HIGH) Ballistic missile threat declared from Kursk Governorate. No new updates on this specific threat, indicating it has likely subsided or been intercepted.
• UPDATED - KYIV DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (CRITICAL): (Confidence: HIGH) Damage to residential buildings is confirmed in Solomianskyi and Holosiivskyi districts of Kyiv. The number of injured in Kyiv has risen to 10. Tragically, two fatalities are confirmed, including a 12-year-old girl in Solomianskyi district. New debris is reported to have fallen on a building in Sviatoshynskyi district and impacting a non-residential building in Obolonskyi district. A hospital in Kyiv is reported on fire with potential casualties. A total of three fatalities are now preliminarily reported in Kyiv. Clichko reports damage to almost 20 locations in six districts. NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports two fatalities at the Institute of Cardiology in Kyiv.
• UPDATED - ZAPORIZHZIA DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (CRITICAL): (Confidence: HIGH) A multi-story residential building in Zaporizhzhia caught fire due to the enemy attack. Casualties in Zaporizhzhia have risen to 21 injured, with two in serious condition. RF launched at least 8 strikes on Zaporizhzhia from 01:00 to 05:30, hitting a multi-story building and damaging 9 private houses and 14 multi-story buildings, primarily in Shevchenkivskyi district. Photos confirm extensive damage.
• UPDATED - UAF AIR DEFENSE ENGAGEMENT CONFIRMED: (Confidence: HIGH) UAF confirms multiple interceptions of RF missiles and drones. UAF Naval Forces claim to have destroyed 15 Shaheds. UAF PPO forces have also shot down several drones over Kirovohrad Oblast. Mykolaivskyi Vanok reports all previous "mopeds" to Bila Tserkva are intercepted, and "minus" on the 5 mopeds from Ukrainka/Boyarka, indicating successful interception of these groups as well. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts multiple videos claiming to show Shahed interceptions in Kyiv.
• UPDATED - POLAND SCRAMBLES FIGHTERS: (Confidence: HIGH) Poland has scrambled its fighter jets in response to the combined attack on Ukraine. TASS also reports this, attributing it to Russian long-range aviation actions in Ukraine.
• UPDATED - HIGH-SPEED TARGET (ODESKYI OBLAST): (Confidence: HIGH) A high-speed target was confirmed on Mykolaiv Oblast, heading towards Kirovohrad Oblast. No new updates on these specific threats, indicating they have likely subsided or been intercepted.
• NEW - RF CLAIMS ADVANCES IN KHARKIV OBLAST: (Confidence: HIGH) RF (TASS via military expert Marochko) claims RF forces advanced in the areas of Tykhyi and Vovchanski Khutory, and expanded the zone of control southwest and west of Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast. RF also claims the Khatnye sector was the most successful for RF forces in the Kharkiv direction over the past week.
• NEW - RF CLAIMS RESCUE OF UAF SOLDIERS ATTEMPTING TO SURRENDER: (Confidence: HIGH) RF (TASS via Russian law enforcement) claims "Zapad" group soldiers rescued two UAF soldiers in Kirovske who were under UAF artillery fire for attempting to surrender with a white flag. This is a likely propaganda piece, but needs to be noted.
• NEW - RF CLAIMS REFLECTION OF UAF COUNTERATTACKS IN SUMY OBLAST: (Confidence: HIGH) RF (TASS via Russian law enforcement) claims four UAF counterattacks were repelled in Sumy Oblast.
• NEW - RF CLAIMS UAF BRIGADE AT VOLCHANSK NOT RECEIVING DRONES DUE TO POROSHENKO'S INTERESTS: (Confidence: MEDIUM) TASS reports, citing Russian security forces, that a UAF brigade near Volchansk is not receiving drones because its commander is promoting the interests of former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. This is a likely disinformation attempt to sow discord within UAF.
• NEW - RF CLAIMS UAF UNITS BLOCKED IN SYNELNYKIVSKYI FOREST, KHARKIV OBLAST: (Confidence: MEDIUM) TASS, citing Russian security forces, claims about 20 UAF soldiers remain blocked in the Synelnykivskyi forest area of Kharkiv Oblast.
• UPDATE - Nationwide Air Alert Re-Issued: (Confidence: HIGH) The nationwide air alert remains highly dynamic, with drone attacks ongoing. Total active air threats (missiles + drones) are assessed as approximately 40.
• PREVIOUS - Nationwide Air Alert, Kinzhal Launches towards Khmelnytskyi Oblast: (Confidence: HIGH) A nationwide air raid alert was declared for Kinzhal, targeting Khmelnytskyi Oblast. No new updates on these specific Kinzhal threats, indicating they have likely subsided or been intercepted.
• PREVIOUS - Ballistic Missile Launches from Crimea: (Confidence: HIGH) Multiple ballistic missile launches from Crimea were reported. No new updates on these specific ballistic threats, indicating they have likely subsided or been intercepted.
• NEW - RF Reports Drone Interceptions over Russia: (Confidence: HIGH) RF MoD claims 41 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down overnight across Russian regions. Separately, RF Governor of Tula Oblast reports 4 UAVs destroyed over Tula Oblast. Governor of Bryansk Oblast (AV БогомаZ) also reports 10 enemy UAVs destroyed overnight over Bryansk Oblast.
• NEW - RF Reports Artillery and FPV Drone Attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: (Confidence: HIGH) Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetrovsk OVA) reports that RF forces attacked Nikopol district with heavy artillery and FPV drones overnight, affecting the district center and Pokrovska community. Damage assessment is ongoing.
• NEW - RF Reports on Mariinka Destruction: (Confidence: HIGH) TASS reports, with video, on the near-total destruction of Mariinka, DNR, and features a single remaining resident. This is likely a propaganda piece emphasizing the human cost of the conflict.
• NEW - RF Claims Democratic Elections Impossible in Ukraine: (Confidence: HIGH) RF (Aksyonov via TASS) claims that democratic elections in Ukraine are impossible under the current regime. This is a clear political IO effort to undermine Ukrainian leadership.
• NEW - RF Lifts Airport Restrictions: (Confidence: HIGH) Rosaviatsiya reports that airspace restrictions have been lifted at Pskov, Kaluga, Zhukovsky, and Samara airports. NEW: Rosaviatsiya also reports restrictions lifted at Yaroslavl airport.
• NEW - UAF General Staff Daily Report (08:00 28.09.2025): (Confidence: HIGH) UAF General Staff provides updated operational information including claimed RF losses (1110 soldiers, 7 tanks, 40+ artillery systems) and maps of various directions.
• NEW - RF CLAIMS HEAVY STRIKES ON DRONOVKA (DNR): (Confidence: HIGH) TASS via military expert Marochko claims RF forces are launching dense strikes on Dronovka, the last UAF stronghold near Siversk, DNR.
• NEW - RF CLAIMS 500-650 DRONES, 55 STRATEGIC AIRCRAFT MISSILES, 8 KALIBRS, 2 KINZHAL, SEVERAL KH-59 MISSILES: (Confidence: MEDIUM) Russian channels (Два майора) are claiming UAF sources reported these numbers for the current RF attack. This is an RF amplification of UAF reports.
• NEW - RF Drone Destroys 5 Trucks in Sumy: (Confidence: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports that Russians used a drone to burn five trucks in Sumy. Video shows firefighters on scene.
• NEW - RF Attacks Odesa Oblast: (Confidence: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports Russia attacked Odesa Oblast overnight. Video from Оперативний ЗСУ shows firefighters extinguishing a blaze in a damaged building, confirming damage to civilian infrastructure.
• NEW - RF Milbloggers Comment on Kyiv Civilian Damage: (Confidence: HIGH) Russian milbloggers (Два майора) acknowledge UAF channels publishing images of a fallen missile and civilian destruction in Kyiv, but frame it as UAF attempting to "evoke pity." This confirms significant damage.
• NEW - RF Drone Strike in Eastern Grouping Area: (Confidence: MEDIUM) Воин DV (RF source) posts video of a drone strike by the 35th Army of the "Vostok" Group of Forces, targeting enemy personnel and vehicles in a concealed wooded position. The caption indicates destruction of personnel and automotive equipment.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (Confidence: HIGH)

Current conditions are generally clear and favorable for air operations across most of Ukraine. The strongest geomagnetic storm in 3 months (G3) continues to impact satellite communications and GPS for both sides. RF continues to target critical energy infrastructure, resulting in widespread power outages in Chernihiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Extensive urban damage has been reported in Zaporizhzhia, Vinnytsia, Sumy, and Konstantinovka (Donetsk Oblast) due to RF strikes. UAF deep strikes against RF oil infrastructure (Chuvashia) and rocket strikes on Belgorod also cause environmental and structural damage.

Recent Impacts:

• UPDATED - DAMAGE TO KYIV RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS (CRITICAL): (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed damage to residential buildings in Solomianskyi and Holosiivskyi districts of Kyiv. The number of injured has risen to 10, with 3 fatalities reported (including a 12-year-old girl). New debris falls in Darnitskyi, Dniprovskyi, Holosiivskyi, Sviatoshynskyi, and Obolonskyi districts. A hospital in Kyiv is reported on fire with potential casualties. RBC-Ukraine confirms two fatalities at the Institute of Cardiology. Videos confirm an entire street damaged in the capital.
• UPDATED - ZAPORIZHZIA MULTI-STORY BUILDING FIRE: (Confidence: HIGH) A multi-story residential building in Zaporizhzhia caught fire due to the attack. Casualties have risen to 21 injured (two in serious condition), with 9 private houses and 14 multi-story buildings damaged in Dniprovskyi and Shevchenkivskyi districts. Photos confirm extensive damage to residential areas.
• UPDATE - DAMAGE TO KYIV REGION FROM DRONE STRIKES: (Confidence: HIGH) Consequences of the massive drone attack are now reported in 4 districts of Kyiv Oblast, indicating widespread impact.
• NEW - RF Artillery and FPV Drone Attacks in Nikopol: (Confidence: HIGH) RF forces used heavy artillery and FPV drones to attack Nikopol district and Pokrovska community in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast overnight. Damage assessment is ongoing.
• NEW - Mariinka Destruction (DNR): (Confidence: HIGH) Video from TASS confirms near-total destruction of Mariinka, DNR, showcasing ruined urban landscape.
• NEW - RF Drone Destroys 5 Trucks in Sumy: (Confidence: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports that Russians used a drone to burn five trucks in Sumy. Video from Оперативний ЗСУ shows firefighters on scene.
• NEW - Kharkiv Oblast Civilian Damage: (Confidence: HIGH) Oleh Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv OVA, reports that 7 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes in the past day.
• NEW - Odesa Oblast Attack Damage: (Confidence: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports an overnight attack on Odesa Oblast, with video from Оперативний ЗСУ showing firefighters extinguishing a blaze in a damaged building.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (Confidence: HIGH)

RF Forces:

• Ground Operations: RF maintains offensive pressure on multiple axes. Claims of recent advances in Volchansk, Tykhyi, and Vovchanski Khutory in Kharkiv Oblast, with the Khatnye sector being most successful. Claims of repelling four UAF counterattacks in Sumy Oblast. RF (TASS) claims about 20 UAF soldiers blocked in the Synelnykivskyi forest area of Kharkiv Oblast. RF (TASS via Marochko) claims dense strikes on Dronovka, the last UAF stronghold near Siversk, DNR. Video from Воин DV (RF source) depicts a drone strike by the 35th Army (Vostok Group) targeting enemy personnel and automotive equipment in a concealed wooded position. TASS publishes a video of a captured Ukrainian soldier from the 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, who describes his unit being destroyed near Kirovsk and commanders losing their positions.
• Air Activity: RF continues large-scale drone (Shaheds, "Geran-2") and КАБ/FAB strikes. CRITICAL UPDATED: Multiple cruise missiles (KР) from Tu-95MS strategic bombers, ballistic missiles from Kursk Governorate, and UAVs (main portion over Kyiv/Chernihiv Oblasts, with remnants circling Kyiv) have been used in a coordinated attack. RF MoD reports 41 Ukrainian UAVs shot down overnight over Russian regions, with 4 over Tula Oblast and 10 over Bryansk Oblast. RF forces used heavy artillery and FPV drones against Nikopol district and Pokrovska community in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast overnight. RBC-Ukraine reports RF drone burned 5 trucks in Sumy. RBC-Ukraine reports Russia attacked Odesa Oblast overnight. A UAV is reported in Oleksandriyskyi district, Kirovohrad Oblast, heading west.
• Naval Activity: Kalibr missile launches from Myskhako Cape indicate active naval strike operations, though no new updates on these specific threats, indicating likely subsidence/interception.
• Logistics: Rosaviatsiya reports airspace restrictions lifted at Pskov, Kaluga, Zhukovsky, Samara, and Yaroslavl airports.
• Control Measures: RF leadership continues diplomatic engagements and information control. TASS reports, citing Russian security forces, that a UAF brigade near Volchansk is not receiving drones because its commander is promoting the interests of former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. RF (Aksyonov via TASS) claims that democratic elections in Ukraine are impossible under the current regime. TASS video report on Mariinka destruction is likely an IO effort. TASS reports that ZNPP Communications Director, Evgenia Yashina, claims UAF is striking the Zaporizhzhia NPP. TASS reports Igor Kimakovsky, advisor to the head of the DNR, claims over 90% of Donbas residents who fell into Ukrainian hands experienced torture. TASS reports Vladimir Saldo claims UAF deliberately strikes civilian targets. Russian milbloggers (Два майора) acknowledge UAF channels publishing images of civilian destruction in Kyiv but frame it as UAF attempting to "evoke pity." RF recruiting advertisements are being disseminated (e.g., Сахалин).

UAF Forces:

• Ground Operations: UAF maintains an active defensive posture, repelling the majority of RF assaults. UAF reports localized advances in the Dobropillya direction. UAF General Staff daily report for 08:00 28.09.2025 provides updated operational information including claimed RF losses of 1110 soldiers, 7 tanks, and 40+ artillery systems. Video from БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF source) shows over 20 units of destroyed Russian equipment near Mirnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, indicating effective UAF defense against costly RF assaults.
• Air Defense: UAF maintains a robust and responsive air defense network. CRITICAL UPDATED: UAF Air Force (PS ZSU) is providing real-time tracking of numerous cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and high-speed targets. UAF has confirmed multiple missile and drone interceptions. UAF PPO forces have shot down several drones over Kirovohrad Oblast.
• Tactical Drone Utilization: RBC-Ukraine reports RF drone burned 5 trucks in Sumy, which could imply a successful UAF drone operation.
• Recruitment/Sustainment: Video from Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України showcases psychological recovery for 46th Airmobile Brigade soldiers using new technologies and nature.
• International Engagement: Poland has scrambled its fighter jets in response to the combined attack on Ukraine, indicating an increased NATO defensive posture and support for UAF air defense.
• NEW - Humanitarian Response: Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) shares videos and photos of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine (ДСНС) actively extinguishing a large fire on a car park in Sumy, following a Russian UAV attack. This highlights the ongoing humanitarian response to RF aggression.

1.4. Intelligence Gaps and Collection Requirements

• KYIV CITY BDA (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE): Urgently conduct Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the confirmed impacts on residential buildings in Solomianskyi and Holosiivskyi districts, the non-residential building in Obolonskyi district, the building in Sviatoshynskyi district, the Institute of Cardiology, and the reported "whole street" in Kyiv. Confirm the status of the hospital fire and potential casualties. Verify RF claims of impacts in Vishneve. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF CRUISE MISSILE BDA (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE): Confirm specific targets hit by cruise missiles in Kyiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, southern Kyiv Oblast, Vinnytsia Oblast, Pervomaisk, Bila Tserkva, Starokostiantyniv, and Derazhnia. Verify the overall receding status of all missile threats. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF KALIBR/BALLISTIC MISSILE BDA (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE): Confirm targets and damage for Kalibr missile launches towards Zaporizhzhia, Novyy Buh/Kazanka, and ballistic missiles towards Sumy Oblast and Lebedyn. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF Widespread UAV Threat Assessment (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE): Determine the specific types, origins, and intended targets of the numerous UAVs still active around Kyiv, Poltava (Oleksandriyskyi district, Kirovohrad Oblast, heading west), Odesa, and other affected regions. Assess immediate threat to critical infrastructure, UAF forces, and civilian populations. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF Claims Kharkiv Oblast Advances (CRITICAL): Independent verification of RF claims of advances in Tykhyi, Vovchanski Khutory, and expanded control southwest and west of Vovchansk (Kharkiv Oblast). Verify claims of Khatnye sector being most successful. (CRITICAL)
• RF Claims UAF Counterattacks Repelled in Sumy Oblast (CRITICAL): Independent verification of RF claims of repelling four UAF counterattacks in Sumy Oblast. (CRITICAL)
• RF Claims UAF Surrender/Friendly Fire (CRITICAL): Independent verification of RF claims of rescuing two UAF soldiers in Kirovske. (CRITICAL)
• RF Claims UAF Brigade at Volchansk Not Receiving Drones (CRITICAL): Independent verification of RF claims regarding UAF drone supply issues due to political interests. (CRITICAL)
• RF Claims UAF Units Blocked in Synelnykivskyi Forest (CRITICAL): Independent verification of RF claims of about 20 UAF soldiers blocked in Synelnykivskyi forest, Kharkiv Oblast. (CRITICAL)
• RF Claims Kleban-Byk Reservoir (CRITICAL): Urgent and independent verification is required for RF claims of eliminating 10 "Azov"/"Lyut" militants near Kleban-Byk reservoir. (CRITICAL)
• RF Claims of UAF Torture in Donbas (CRITICAL): Independently verify RF (TASS via Kimakovsky) claims of widespread torture of Donbas residents by UAF. (CRITICAL)
• RF Claims of UAF Strikes on ZNPP (CRITICAL): Independently verify RF (TASS via Yashina) claims of UAF striking Zaporizhzhia NPP. (CRITICAL)
• RF Claims of Dronovka Strikes (CRITICAL): Independently verify RF (TASS via Marochko) claims of dense strikes on Dronovka and heavy UAF losses near Siversk. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF Claimed Attack Statistics (CRITICAL): Assess the veracity of RF claims regarding UAF reporting on the number of drones, missiles, etc., in the current attack. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF Drone Attack on Sumy Trucks BDA (CRITICAL): Conduct immediate BDA for the drone attack that burned five trucks in Sumy. Determine specific targets and full extent of damage. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• Odesa Oblast Attack BDA (CRITICAL): Conduct immediate BDA for the overnight attack on Odesa Oblast. Determine targets, extent of damage, and casualties. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF Drone Strike in Eastern Grouping Area (CRITICAL): Confirm the location, specific targets (personnel, vehicles), and precise damage assessment from the Воин DV video. Identify the type of drone used. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade Status (CRITICAL): Independently verify the claims made by the captured UAF soldier regarding the destruction of the 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade near Kirovsk and the loss of command positions. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• Mirnohrad Destroyed Equipment Verification (CRITICAL): Independently verify the claim of over 20 units of destroyed Russian equipment near Mirnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, from the БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video. Confirm types of equipment and battle damage. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (Confidence: HIGH)

Capabilities:

• Persistent Mass Aerial Strike Capability (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF maintains an extremely high capability for large-scale, coordinated UAV, guided bomb (КАБ/FAB), MLRS (Smerch), ballistic, and missile attacks across Ukraine. This includes confirmed "Kinzhal" launches, ballistic missile launches from Crimea and Kursk, confirmed Kalibr missile launches, confirmed cruise missile launches from Tu-95 strategic bombers (now with confirmed impacts in Kyiv), and a significant concentration of UAVs still active (Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Sumy, Odesa). RF air defenses remain active and effective over Russian territory. RF MoD claims 41 Ukrainian UAVs shot down overnight, and 4 over Tula Oblast, 10 over Bryansk Oblast. Overnight, RF used FPV drones in conjunction with heavy artillery against Nikopol district. A drone is reported in central Poltava Oblast, heading towards Myrhorod. RF drone burned 5 trucks in Sumy. Video from Воин DV (RF source) confirms drone strike capabilities by the 35th Army (Vostok Group) targeting personnel and automotive equipment.
• IO/PsyOps Capabilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF demonstrates advanced and adaptive capabilities in information operations. This is evidenced by Lavrov's statements, Orban's anti-Ukraine rhetoric, and now direct calls from RF Deputy Vodolatsky for Ukrainians to "rise up" and elect a new president. TASS reporting on Polina Agureeva being on the SBU wanted list is another such effort. Vladimir Saldo's statements comparing "anti-Russian polemics" to "Nazi antisemitism" demonstrates extreme rhetoric. TASS's reporting on Moldovan President Sandu shows attempts to destabilize pro-Western governments. TASS amplifying statements from a soldier claiming UAF methodically destroyed homes in Tetkino, Kursk, despite no military presence, is another specific propaganda piece. Sergey Aksyonov's interview with TASS reinforces a narrative of Russia's regret, justification for the conflict, and criticism of Ukrainian/Western leadership. The claim about UAF drone supply issues due to Poroshenko's interests further exemplifies RF's capacity for sowing internal discord. Aksyonov via TASS claims democratic elections are impossible in Ukraine under the current regime. TASS video report on Mariinka destruction is a clear IO effort to blame UAF. RF Deputy Defense Minister Viktor Goremykin's awards ceremony in Orenburg is a morale-boosting and public relations event. TASS reports that ZNPP Communications Director, Evgenia Yashina, claims UAF is striking the Zaporizhzhia NPP. TASS reports Igor Kimakovsky, advisor to the head of the DNR, claims over 90% of Donbas residents who fell into Ukrainian hands experienced torture. TASS reports Vladimir Saldo claims UAF deliberately strikes civilian targets. Russian milbloggers are engaging in counter-IO, framing UAF reports of Kyiv damage as attempts to "evoke pity." RF recruiting advertisements are being disseminated to project strength and purpose. The video of the captured 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade soldier is a clear RF propaganda piece to demonstrate UAF weakness and demoralization.
• Targeted UAV Warfare Capabilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF maintains structured efforts to enhance drone warfare capabilities, including direct recruitment for specialized UAV battalions and advanced counter-UAV systems. The sheer volume of UAVs (multiple directly targeting Kyiv with confirmed impacts, and other regions) underscores this capability. Overnight, RF used FPV drones in conjunction with heavy artillery against Nikopol district. RF drone burned 5 trucks in Sumy. A drone is reported in Oleksandriyskyi district, Kirovohrad Oblast, heading west. Воин DV video confirms targeted drone strikes against personnel and vehicles.
• Counter-Battery and Counter-Armor Capabilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF continues to demonstrate effective counter-battery and counter-armor capabilities through artillery and drone strikes, including targeting moving vehicles and Western-supplied equipment. Overnight, RF used heavy artillery in Nikopol district. The Воин DV video shows a drone strike on automotive equipment.
• Logistic Resilience (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Rosaviatsiya lifting restrictions at Pskov, Kaluga, Zhukovsky, Samara, and Yaroslavl indicates some normalization or reduced perceived threat to air travel, potentially easing some logistical constraints.
• Tactical C2 and ISR (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The coordinated multiple UAV and cruise missile attacks on diverse regions, now including direct targeting of Kyiv with confirmed impacts, and the confirmed widespread cruise missile launches, indicate effective C2. RF claims of advances in Kharkiv Oblast (Khatnye sector most successful) and dense strikes on Dronovka suggest continued C2 over ground forces there. Claims of repelling UAF counterattacks in Sumy also suggest active C2. The coordinated heavy artillery and FPV drone attacks in Nikopol indicate effective tactical C2. The Воин DV video shows coordinated drone operations by the 35th Army. The TASS video of the captured UAF soldier gives a sense of RF's ability to interrogate and extract information, highlighting their HUMINT capabilities.

Intentions:

• Intention to Degrade UAF Capabilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF's sustained ground offensives and continuous aerial strikes aim to degrade UAF's combat effectiveness, logistical capacity, and civilian resilience. The recent widespread aerial campaign, including "Kinzhal," ballistic missile threats, confirmed cruise missile launches from strategic bombers (now targeting multiple critical civilian centers including Kyiv with confirmed impacts), confirmed Kalibr missile launches, and direct UAV attacks on Kyiv, underscores this intent. Claims of advances in Kharkiv Oblast (especially Khatnye sector), and dense strikes on Dronovka reinforce this intention. The TASS report on UAF drone supply issues near Volchansk indicates an intent to exploit perceived UAF weaknesses or internal divisions. Overnight attacks on Nikopol district with heavy artillery and FPV drones demonstrate intent to degrade UAF in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF false flag claims of UAF striking ZNPP also serve to degrade Ukraine's international standing. RF drone attack on Sumy trucks is a specific intent to disrupt logistics. Overnight attacks on Odesa Oblast also degrade UAF assets. The Воин DV video illustrates the intent to directly destroy UAF personnel and equipment. The TASS video of the captured UAF soldier reinforces the intent to demonstrate UAF operational degradation.
• Intention for Information Dominance (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF is committed to dominating the information environment through rapid dissemination of false-flag narratives, amplification of anti-Western sentiment, and efforts to discredit UAF and Western governments. This includes claims regarding Moldova/Transnistria and UAF recruitment/payment issues, and now direct calls from RF Deputy Vodolatsky for Ukrainians to overthrow their government. The propagation of images of "liquidated AFU servicemen" with US flag chevrons and reporting on Polina Agureeva's SBU wanted status are explicit attempts to shape public perception and discredit Ukraine. Vladimir Saldo's extreme rhetoric further reinforces anti-Ukrainian rhetoric. TASS reporting on Moldovan President Sandu serves to undermine pro-Western leadership. TASS reports about UAF destroying homes in Tetkino, Kursk, and claims of rescuing UAF soldiers attempting to surrender, are part of this effort. Aksyonov's TASS interview serves to reinforce RF's justification for the war and undermine Ukrainian leadership. The TASS report on UAF drone supply issues due to Poroshenko's interests clearly aims to create internal divisions within Ukraine. Aksyonov's statement on the impossibility of democratic elections in Ukraine is a direct political IO to delegitimize the Ukrainian government. The TASS Mariinka video is an IO effort to highlight UAF responsibility for devastation. TASS claims of UAF striking ZNPP and torturing Donbas residents are high-impact false flag/propaganda efforts. TASS via Vladimir Saldo continues to claim UAF deliberately strikes civilian targets. Russian milbloggers' framing of Kyiv damage as "evoking pity" is a clear attempt to control the narrative and deflect blame. RF recruiting advertisements aim to project strength and purpose internally. The TASS video of the captured UAF soldier is a direct IO effort to demoralize UAF and bolster RF morale by showing enemy weakness.
• Intention to Consolidate Russian National Identity (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF leadership is focused on consolidating a specific, traditional narrative of Russian identity. RF awards ceremony for SMO participants is a direct attempt to bolster morale and acknowledge military personnel.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations (Confidence: HIGH)

• Expanded Air Campaign Effort (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF has significantly expanded and intensified its primary air campaign effort across multiple Ukrainian oblasts, now including confirmed deployment of MiG-31K with Kinzhal missiles, multiple ballistic missile launches from Crimea and Kursk, an increased number of strategic bombers (7 Tu-95MS) with confirmed cruise missile launches on new, widespread vectors (targeting multiple central Ukrainian cities, including direct hits on Kyiv with confirmed impacts), and newly confirmed Kalibr missile launches from the Black Sea, in addition to UAVs (including a massive concentration in Kyiv Oblast with direct targeting of Kyiv City and confirmed impacts), MLRS (Smerch), and high-speed missiles. This demonstrates an adaptive and persistent strategy aimed at systemic degradation. The dynamic nature of the ongoing missile/drone attack, with some cruise missiles being intercepted and drone activity persisting (Kirovohrad Oblast), indicates adaptive UAF air defense responses and RF adapting follow-on waves. RF also adapted to use heavy artillery and FPV drones in coordinated attacks on Nikopol. RF drone burned 5 trucks in Sumy. RF attacked Odesa Oblast overnight, impacting civilian infrastructure. The Воин DV video shows the 35th Army utilizing drones for targeted strikes.
• New Ground Offensive Axis (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF continues to adapt its ground operations, with claimed territorial gains in Dnipropetropavsk and Donetsk, and renewed assault operations in the Huliaipilske direction. RF claims advances in Kharkiv Oblast (Tykhyi, Vovchanski Khutory, Vovchansk, Khatnye sector) and repelling UAF counterattacks in Sumy Oblast show adaptive ground operations. The claim of UAF units blocked in Synelnykivskyi forest points to adaptive encirclement tactics. RF is launching dense strikes on Dronovka near Siversk, indicating an adapted approach to clear UAF strongholds. The TASS video of the captured 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade soldier mentions commanders losing positions, indicating localized UAF tactical setbacks that RF forces may be adapting to exploit.
• Adaptive IO for Casualties and Justification (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF quickly adapts its information operations to leverage high-profile events, exploit perceived adversary divisions, and justify its actions through various propaganda narratives. Direct political messaging from RF Deputy Vodolatsky calling for regime change in Ukraine represents an escalation in IO tactics. The immediate amplification of images of "liquidated AFU servicemen" with US flag chevrons and reporting on individuals on SBU wanted lists are adaptive IO tactics. Vladimir Saldo's extreme rhetoric demonstrates an adaptive escalation of dehumanizing rhetoric. TASS reporting on Moldovan President Sandu is an adaptive attempt to destabilize pro-Western governments. TASS reports about UAF destroying homes in Tetkino, Kursk, and claims of rescuing UAF soldiers attempting to surrender, are new adaptive IO efforts. Aksyonov's TASS interview exemplifies adaptive messaging to justify the war and destabilize Ukraine. The TASS report on UAF drone supply issues due to Poroshenko's interests is an adaptive attempt to sow internal discord. Aksyonov's statement on the impossibility of democratic elections in Ukraine is an adaptive political IO. The TASS Mariinka video is an adaptive IO piece. TASS claims of UAF striking ZNPP and torturing Donbas residents are adaptive false flag/propaganda efforts. TASS via Vladimir Saldo continues to claim UAF deliberately strikes civilian targets. Russian milbloggers' framing of Kyiv damage as "evoking pity" is an adaptive counter-IO tactic. The TASS video of the captured UAF soldier is an adaptive propaganda piece to highlight UAF operational failures and demoralization.
• Escalated Hybrid Operations Against NATO (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The confirmed drone activity over Danish Ministry of Defense facilities, disruption of Vilnius International Airport, and drone swarms in Germany, Norway, and the Netherlands indicate a significant escalation in RF's hybrid operations targeting NATO member states. Poland scrambling fighters is a direct consequence of this. TASS reports this, acknowledging Polish claims of Russian long-range aviation activity.
• Domestic Air Defense Posture: Rosaviatsiya lifting restrictions at Pskov, Kaluga, Zhukovsky, Samara, and Yaroslavl suggests an adaptation to reduced perceived threat or operational tempo, allowing for more normalized air travel.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• RF Fuel Shortages: A severe and growing fuel crisis is impacting Lipetsk and Sevastopol Oblasts. (Confidence: HIGH)
• RF Logistics Infrastructure Targeted: UAF continues to target RF oil infrastructure and railway logistics. RF drone burned 5 trucks in Sumy, representing a direct hit to RF logistics. (Confidence: HIGH)
• RF Military Procurement Issues: Ongoing reliance on public fundraising for equipment and soldier sustenance highlights deficiencies in official military supply chains. RF recruiting advertisements (Сахалин) emphasize bonuses, suggesting efforts to attract personnel. (Confidence: HIGH)
• RF Internal Supply Chain Disruptions: Rosaviatsiya lifting restrictions at Pskov, Kaluga, Zhukovsky, Samara, and Yaroslavl may ease some internal logistical constraints for air travel. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Personnel Support Challenges: Claims of injured soldiers being sent to the front and allegations of soldier suicides indicate significant personnel sustainment issues. The TASS video of the captured UAF soldier implicitly suggests RF's operational context includes capturing enemy combatants, which requires logistical support for POWs. (Confidence: HIGH)
• ZNPP Power Status: Conflicting reports on ZNPP's power status highlight ongoing logistical and safety concerns. TASS claims UAF is striking ZNPP to destabilize it. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• RF Centralized C2 and Adaptive Targeting (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF maintains a centralized C2 structure capable of coordinating multi-axis ground offensives and large-scale, adaptive aerial campaigns, as evidenced by the widespread aerial attacks (including Kinzhal, ballistic, confirmed cruise missile, confirmed Kalibr missile launches, plus massive UAV deployments and direct targeting of Kyiv with confirmed impacts). RF claims of advances in Kharkiv Oblast (Khatnye sector most successful) and repelling UAF counterattacks in Sumy Oblast further demonstrate active C2 over ground forces. The claims of UAF units blocked in Synelnykivskyi forest also suggest RF C2 of encirclement tactics. Coordinated heavy artillery and FPV drone attacks in Nikopol indicate effective tactical C2. Rosaviatsiya lifting airport restrictions suggests C2 decision-making regarding internal airspace. RF awards ceremony for SMO participants indicates C2 oversight of personnel recognition. Dense strikes on Dronovka also show coordinated ground efforts. The Воин DV video demonstrates effective C2 for drone operations within the Vostok Group. The TASS video of the captured UAF soldier, if authentic, highlights a failure of UAF C2 to prevent unit destruction.
• RF IO Control and Narrative Management (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF C2 effectively manages the information environment, swiftly deploying narratives to counter threats and exploit opportunities. The direct political appeal from RF Deputy Vodolatsky for Ukrainians to overthrow their government demonstrates a coordinated C2 effort. The coordinated dissemination of "liquidated AFU servicemen" images, the Polina Agureeva story, Vladimir Saldo's extreme rhetoric, and TASS reporting on Moldovan President Sandu show central control over propaganda. TASS reports about UAF destroying homes in Tetkino, Kursk, and claims of rescuing UAF soldiers under friendly fire are also centrally controlled IO. Aksyonov's TASS interview reinforces this centralized narrative control. The TASS report on UAF drone supply issues due to Poroshenko's interests attempts to manipulate perceptions of UAF leadership. Aksyonov's statement on the impossibility of democratic elections in Ukraine is a centrally controlled political IO. The TASS Mariinka video is a coordinated IO piece. TASS claims of UAF striking ZNPP and torturing Donbas residents are centrally controlled false flag/propaganda efforts. TASS reports on Moldovan elections and bridge operations are centrally controlled IO to frame events. Russian milbloggers' counter-IO regarding Kyiv damage is also centrally aligned. RF recruiting advertisements are centrally managed.
• UAF C2 Resilience Under Pressure (HIGH CONFIDENCE): UAF General Staff provides regular operational updates, and high repel rates for RF assaults, along with effective drone and SOF operations, demonstrate resilient tactical and operational C2 despite intense pressure. Active air defense responses and public alerts show effective real-time C2 under aerial threats. UAF Air Force (PS ZSU) is providing real-time updates on missile and UAV movements across numerous regions, demonstrating robust C2 and situational awareness for the current multi-vector missile and UAV attack. Confirmation of multiple missile interceptions further highlights UAF C2 effectiveness. UAF Naval Forces destroying 15 Shaheds also demonstrates coordinated C2 for air defense. UAF PPO forces shooting down drones over Kirovohrad Oblast, and Khmelnytskyi OVA reporting no casualties/damage, indicate effective regional C2. Mykolaivskyi Vanok reporting "minus" on drone groups indicates rapid battle damage assessment and effective C2 dissemination. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posting videos of Shahed interceptions confirms active PPO engagement and public information dissemination. The БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing destroyed RF equipment near Mirnohrad indicates effective UAF C2 in defense.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (Confidence: HIGH)

• Active Defense and Counter-Offensive Operations: UAF maintains active defense across multiple axes, repelling most RF assaults and making localized advances (Pankivka, Zarichne, Dobropillya direction). UAF General Staff daily report for 08:00 28.09.2025 provides updated operational information and maps, confirming ongoing active defense. The БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video of destroyed RF equipment near Mirnohrad indicates UAF's effective defensive posture.
• Air Defense Effectiveness: UAF air defense remains highly engaged and effective against mass drone, ballistic, and missile attacks, with high interception rates and successful regional operations. UAF Air Force (PS ZSU) is providing real-time tracking of numerous cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and high-speed targets. Confirmed missile interceptions by UAF AD assets further underscore readiness. UAF Naval Forces claim to have destroyed 15 Shaheds. UAF PPO forces shot down several drones over Kirovohrad Oblast.
• Tactical Drone Utilization: RBC-Ukraine reports RF drone burned 5 trucks in Sumy, which could imply a successful UAF drone operation.
• Long-Range Precision Strike Capabilities: UAF demonstrates capability for deep strikes into RF territory (oil pumping station, Belgorod) and against critical infrastructure in occupied territories (Zaporizhzhia power outage).
• Recruitment Efforts: Video from Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України showcasing psychological recovery for 46th Airmobile Brigade soldiers highlights UAF's focus on personnel well-being and morale, crucial for sustained readiness.
• International Support (Poland): Poland scrambling its fighter jets in response to the combined attack on Ukraine demonstrates active, responsive international support for UAF air defense.
• NEW - Kharkiv Oblast Defense: Oleh Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv OVA, reporting 7 settlements hit by enemy strikes indicates ongoing UAF defensive actions and resilience in the region.
• NEW - Odesa Oblast Defense: RBC-Ukraine reports on firefighters in Odesa Oblast, and Оперативний ЗСУ shares images, indicating local response and defense efforts against overnight attacks.
• NEW - Humanitarian Response: Оперативний ЗСУ shares videos and photos of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine (ДСНС) actively extinguishing a large fire on a car park in Sumy, following a Russian UAV attack. This highlights the ongoing humanitarian response capabilities.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• Successes:
  • High Repel Rate: Successfully repelled a high percentage of RF assaults across multiple axes. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Localized Advances: Confirmed liberation of Pankivka, Zarichne, and advances on the Dobropillya direction. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Effective Air Defense: High success rate against RF UAV attacks, and successful air defense operations in Dnipropetropavsk and Kirovohrad. UAF Air Force providing real-time tracking of new missile and UAV groups, and confirmation of multiple missile and drone interceptions. UAF Naval Forces destroyed 15 Shaheds. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Deep Strikes into RF Territory & ТОТ: Successful UAV attacks on RF oil infrastructure, rocket strikes on Belgorod, and power outage in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Effective Tactical Drone Strikes: Significant successes in FPV drone strikes on Pokrovsk direction. RBC-Ukraine reports RF drone burned 5 trucks in Sumy, potentially indicating successful UAF drone strike on RF logistics. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • NEW - Claimed RF Losses: UAF General Staff claims 1110 RF soldiers, 7 tanks, and 40+ artillery systems eliminated in the last 24 hours. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing over 20 units of destroyed Russian equipment near Mirnohrad supports significant RF losses. (Confidence: MEDIUM - UAF claim)
  • NEW - Psychological Rehabilitation Success: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України video highlights effective psychological recovery programs for soldiers. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Setbacks:
  • RF Advances on Multiple Axes: RF claims unverified advances in Volchansk, Tykhyi, Vovchanski Khutory (Kharkiv Oblast), and claims the Khatnye sector was most successful. RF is launching dense strikes on Dronovka near Siversk, claiming heavy UAF losses. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
  • Civilian Infrastructure Damage & Casualties (CRITICAL): Continued RF strikes cause significant damage to civilian infrastructure and casualties. CRITICAL UPDATED: In Kyiv, 10 injured and 3 fatalities (including a 12-year-old girl, and two at the Institute of Cardiology) are reported. Damage in almost 20 locations across six districts of Kyiv. In Zaporizhzhia, 21 injured (two in serious condition) with extensive damage to residential buildings and a gas station. RF artillery and FPV drone attacks overnight on Nikopol district have also caused damage, with assessment ongoing. 7 settlements hit in Kharkiv Oblast. Overnight attacks on Odesa Oblast, damaging civilian infrastructure. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Potential Encirclement: RF claims of encircling UAF units in Synelnykivskyi forest, if verified, would be a severe tactical setback. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
  • RF Air Defense Successes: RF's successful interception of numerous UAF UAVs over Russian territory (41 reported down overnight, 4 over Tula, 10 over Bryansk). (Confidence: HIGH)
  • RF Artillery/MLRS/Ballistic/Cruise/Kalibr Strikes on UAF Assets/Cities: Confirmed cruise missile launches from Tu-95 strategic bombers (now with direct impacts in Kyiv). RF artillery and FPV drone attacks in Nikopol district. RF drone burned 5 trucks in Sumy. RF attacked Odesa Oblast. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Loss of American M113 APC: Video evidence from RF sources confirms the capture of a damaged US-supplied M113 Armored Personnel Carrier by RF forces in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • RF Claims Elimination of Azov/Lyut: If verified, RF claims of destroying 10 personnel from Azov and Lyut brigades near Kleban-Byk reservoir would be a significant tactical setback. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
  • NEW - RF Claims UAF Friendly Fire: RF claims of UAF soldiers being fired upon by their own forces for attempting to surrender, if true, would be a serious setback related to morale/discipline. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
  • NEW - RF Claims UAF Drone Supply Issues: RF claims a UAF brigade near Volchansk is not receiving drones due to its commander promoting Poroshenko's interests. (Confidence: LOW, highly likely IO)
  • NEW - 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade Destruction Claims: The TASS video featuring a captured UAF soldier from the 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade claiming his unit was destroyed near Kirovsk and commanders lost their positions, suggests a significant localized tactical setback for UAF if verified. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (Confidence: HIGH)

• Air Defense Assets: Continued high tempo of RF aerial attacks necessitates sustained supply of air defense munitions and platforms, particularly for drone and missile defense. The confirmed cruise missile launches from Tu-95 strategic bombers, combined with Kinzhal, ballistic missile launches, Kalibr launches, and massive UAV deployments (multiple UAVs directly targeting Kyiv with confirmed impacts and numerous other groups), highlights an immediate, critical need. Mobile C-UAS systems are continuously required. A UAV is reported in Oleksandriyskyi district, Kirovohrad Oblast, heading west.
• Long-Range Precision Strike Capabilities: UAF relies heavily on Western-supplied and indigenous long-range weapons. Continued support and resupply are critical.
• Munitions and Equipment: Sustained combat operations require continuous supply of ammunition, artillery shells, FPV drones, and combat vehicles. Losses of equipment like the M113 APC necessitate replacement. The intensity of ground engagements, as highlighted by RF accounts of high casualties and new claims of UAF personnel/equipment destruction (Воин DV video) underscores this need. UAF General Staff claims of RF losses (7 tanks, 40+ artillery) imply continuous UAF munition expenditure. The drone attack burning 5 trucks in Sumy implies a need for counter-drone measures and protection for logistics. The БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing destroyed RF equipment indicates successful UAF munition expenditure.
• Personnel and Training: Ongoing recruitment efforts, potentially including increased financial incentives as claimed by RF, indicate a need for continuous personnel intake and specialized training for various roles. The psychological rehabilitation programs highlighted by UAF airborne forces are critical for maintaining personnel mental health and combat effectiveness. The TASS video of the captured 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade soldier indicates ongoing personnel losses and potential impact on training and morale.
• Medical and Rehabilitation Support: The extensive rehabilitation services in Kharkiv underscore the ongoing human cost. Casualties in Kyiv (10 injured, 3 killed) and Zaporizhzhia (21 injured) from the current strikes will add to this burden.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (Confidence: HIGH)

• RF Propaganda Themes: Victimhood, Destabilization of NATO/EU, Demonization of Ukraine/West, Justification for Aggression/Maximalist Demands, Internal Cohesion/Morale Boosting, Hybrid Warfare Narratives, "Big War" Narrative, Non-Military Propaganda, "Wise Politician" Narrative, Gloating over UAF Setbacks, Regional Destabilization (Moldova/Transnistria), UAF Financial/Personnel Crisis, Western Hypocrisy/Internal Disarray, NATO Cyber War, Russian Technological Prowess. RF continues to push these vigorously. The destruction of a UAF M113 APC will be amplified. RF will likely leverage the detention of George Galloway in London on terrorism charges. RF Deputy Viktor Vodolatsky (TASS) explicitly calls for Ukrainians to "rise up against the Nazi regime, electing another president." RF claims of eliminating Azov/Lyut militants near Kleban-Byk reservoir will be amplified. Images of "liquidated AFU servicemen" with US flag chevrons will be used to reinforce the narrative of UAF fighting for "Western interests." The reporting on Polina Agureeva being on the SBU wanted list will be used to portray SBU as persecuting Russian cultural figures. Vladimir Saldo's statement (TASS) equating "anti-Russian polemics" to "Nazi antisemitism" demonstrates continued use of extreme rhetoric. TASS's reporting on Moldovan President Sandu serves to undermine pro-Western leadership. TASS amplifying statements from an RF soldier claiming UAF methodically destroyed homes in Tetkino, Kursk, despite no military presence, is a new propaganda piece. TASS reporting on "Zapad" group soldiers rescuing UAF soldiers attempting to surrender under friendly fire is designed to portray RF forces as humane. Statements from Sergey Aksyonov (Crimea) about Putin/Trump dialogue opening new possibilities for Crimea reinforce the narrative of RF legitimacy. Aksyonov's interview (TASS) claiming Ukrainian residents "hate ruling elites" and Russia's primary interest is peace, is a continuous effort to sow political discord and justify RF actions. The TASS report claiming drone supply issues for a UAF brigade due to Poroshenko's interests is an attempt to generate internal friction. Aksyonov via TASS claims democratic elections are impossible in Ukraine under the current regime. TASS video report on Mariinka destruction, featuring a sole resident, will be used to emphasize devastation and blame UAF. RF Deputy Defense Minister Viktor Goremykin's awards ceremony in Orenburg is a propaganda piece to boost military and volunteer morale. TASS reports from ZNPP Communications Director, Evgenia Yashina, blaming UAF for striking the NPP is a false flag/propaganda effort. TASS reports from Igor Kimakovsky claiming torture of Donbas residents by UAF is another propaganda effort. TASS reports from Vladimir Saldo claiming UAF deliberately strikes civilian targets reinforces anti-Ukrainian rhetoric. Russian milbloggers (Два майора) post aerial images of Ukraine and attempt to dismiss UAF reports of Kyiv civilian destruction as attempts to "evoke pity." RF recruitment ads are also propaganda. The TASS video of the captured UAF soldier from the 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade is a direct propaganda piece aimed at demoralizing UAF and portraying RF successes.
• UAF Counter-Propaganda/Information Operations (IO) Themes: Exposing RF Atrocities/War Crimes, Highlighting RF Losses/Weaknesses, Mocking RF Disinformation, Diplomatic Pressure/International Support, Internal Resilience/Morale Boosting, Exposing RF Hybrid Operations, Zelenskyy on Retaliation. UAF actively engages in counter-propaganda. Official reporting of damage and casualties in Zaporizhzhia and Kyiv directly counters RF narratives. Counter-narratives will focus on the confirmed impact in Kyiv (10 injured, 3 fatalities, including a 12-year-old girl and two at the Institute of Cardiology) and civilian casualties from widespread missile and UAV attacks. UAF will highlight international support, such as Poland scrambling its fighter jets, and UAF Air Defense successes (e.g., 15 Shaheds destroyed by Naval Forces, multiple missile interceptions). UAF General Staff (Оперативний ЗСУ) images on RF losses ("Кацапів меншає" - Fewer Kacaps) are direct morale boosters. The БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing over 20 units of destroyed Russian equipment near Mirnohrad is a powerful UAF counter-narrative. The Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України video on psychological recovery is a strong morale-boosting piece. UAF will actively refute RF claims of striking ZNPP and torturing Donbas residents. UAF will also highlight the human cost of the attacks in Kharkiv and Odesa Oblasts. The ДСНС videos and photos of firefighters in Sumy and Odesa highlight RF's targeting of civilians and UAF's humanitarian response.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• Ukrainian Public Sentiment (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Resilience and resolve remain strong but are severely tested by ongoing attacks. The current widespread aerial attack, including confirmed cruise missile launches, Kalibr missile launches, ballistic missile threats, and direct UAV attacks on Kyiv, will severely test this resilience. The renewed nationwide air alert brings renewed anxiety. Casualties in Zaporizhzhia (21 injured) and now Kyiv (10 injured, 3 killed, including a 12-year-old girl and two at the Institute of Cardiology), with significant damage reported in almost 20 locations, will intensely impact local and national morale. The massive UAV threat to Kyiv and other cities will cause widespread fear. RF calls for regime change will reinforce determination against RF aggression. Poland's decision to scramble fighter jets will provide a temporary morale boost. UAF Air Defense successes will also boost morale. The ongoing explosions in Kyiv will fuel public anxiety. Damage in Kharkiv and Odesa Oblasts will also affect local morale. The ДСНС videos and photos show the courage of emergency services and the solidarity of the Ukrainian people in responding to attacks.
• Russian Public Sentiment (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): Growing discontent is evident regarding fuel shortages, alleged mistreatment of military personnel, and frustration with official narratives. Propaganda continues to shape perceptions, but social tensions are visible. Rosaviatsiya lifting airport restrictions might ease public anxiety about internal security/travel. RF MoD claims of shooting down 41 Ukrainian UAVs will be used to bolster public confidence in RF air defense capabilities. RF awards ceremony for SMO participants aims to boost morale. RF recruitment ads (Сахалин) highlight efforts to attract new personnel. The TASS video of the captured UAF soldier implicitly suggests RF's operational successes, which can boost morale among RF loyalists.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments (Confidence: HIGH)

• Continued Western Support (Conditional/Evolving): US military aid remains critical but uncertain. European support faces challenges. NATO is reinforcing its eastern flank. Poland has actively demonstrated support by scrambling its fighter jets in response to the current combined attack, indicating a responsive NATO posture. TASS also reports this, acknowledging Polish claims.
• RF Diplomatic Offensive: Lavrov's UNGA presence is a platform for RF's geopolitical agenda. RF is strengthening non-Western alliances. RF Deputy Viktor Vodolatsky's direct political calls for Ukrainians to replace their president could be a prelude to further diplomatic or IO efforts to delegitimize the current Ukrainian government. Vladimir Saldo's statements (TASS) are likely intended for an international audience. TASS's reporting on Moldovan President Sandu serves to undermine pro-Western leadership. Sergey Aksyonov's (Crimea) statements about Putin/Trump dialogue opening new possibilities for Crimea are part of this diplomatic offensive. His TASS interview reinforces this diplomatic push to justify RF actions internationally. TASS is also reporting on Moldovan parliamentary elections. Aksyonov via TASS claims democratic elections are impossible in Ukraine, intended to delegitimize the Ukrainian government internationally. TASS reports of UAF striking ZNPP and torturing Donbas residents are part of a broader diplomatic offensive to discredit Ukraine.
• International Condemnation/Legal Action: The OSCE report on Russian war crimes increases legal and diplomatic pressure on RF.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(Confidence: HIGH) RF will continue multi-axis ground pressure across the Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetropavsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy axes. RF will persist in attempting to consolidate and expand its claimed territorial gains in Derilovo, Mayske (DNR), and Stepove (Dnipropetropavsk Oblast). RF will likely continue to push advances in Kharkiv Oblast (Tykhyi, Vovchanski Khutory, Vovchansk, especially the Khatnye sector) and test UAF defenses in Sumy Oblast, as indicated by claims of repelling UAF counterattacks. Reconnaissance and probing attacks from the Yunakovka bridgehead in Sumy Oblast will continue to fix UAF forces. RF units will likely continue localized storming operations, accepting high casualties if tactical objectives are deemed sufficiently important. The alleged blocking of UAF units in Synelnykivskyi forest will be exploited. RF will likely focus on containing any UAF tactical gains in the Dobropillya salient. RF will continue heavy artillery and FPV drone attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopol district). RF will continue dense strikes on Dronovka near Siversk to attempt to clear UAF strongholds. Targeted drone strikes against personnel and vehicles in concealed positions, as seen in the Воин DV video, will continue. RF will also attempt to exploit UAF unit destruction (e.g., 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade near Kirovsk) for further tactical advances.

(Confidence: HIGH) RF is currently executing and will continue a focused, high-intensity aerial strike campaign, which is now assessed to be aimed at maximum degradation and psychological impact, though the missile phase is largely receding, with drone threats persisting. This will primarily target critical energy infrastructure, airfields, and urban centers, particularly Kyiv City (with confirmed impacts, including residential buildings and the Institute of Cardiology, with 10 injured and 3 killed), Bila Tserkva, Kharkiv (including city), Vinnytsia, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia (with confirmed residential fires, gas station damage, 21 injured), Poltava (including central Poltava Oblast towards Myrhorod), Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy, Pervomaisk, Mykolaiv/Kirovohrad, Balta (Odeskyi Oblast), and Fastiv. This strike will heavily utilize UAVs (Shaheds/Gerans, including multiple directly targeting Kyiv, Kharkiv city, Sumy, and Odesa). The confirmed cruise missile launches from Tu-95 strategic bombers, in addition to previously reported Kinzhal, ballistic missile launches, and Kalibr missile launches, indicate a renewed and extremely dangerous phase of the widespread air campaign. MLRS (Smerch) and high-speed targets will also be used, aiming for widespread disruption and psychological impact ahead of winter. RF air defenses in border regions (Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk, Penza, Lipetsk, Kaluga, Samara, Pskov, Yaroslavl, Zhukovsky) will remain on high alert. Rosaviatsiya lifting restrictions at Pskov, Kaluga, Zhukovsky, Samara, and Yaroslavl suggests some degree of confidence in their domestic air defense or a reduction in perceived threat from UAF deep strikes. RF will also continue targeted drone strikes on logistics, as seen in Sumy.

(Confidence: HIGH) RF will escalate hybrid operations against NATO member states, likely continuing drone overflights or disruptive activities targeting sensitive military and civilian infrastructure in the Baltic Sea region (Denmark, Lithuania, Norway, Netherlands, Germany), and possibly expanding to new regions. Poland's fighter scramble is a direct consequence. Concurrently, RF will intensify its information operations, focusing on:

1. Denying responsibility for provocations against NATO and shifting blame, leveraging the "NATO Cyber Headquarters against Russia" narrative.
2. Amplifying narratives of NATO/EU disunity and portraying Western nations as aggressive or subservient to the US, leveraging statements from figures like Orban. Vladimir Saldo's statements comparing "anti-Russian polemics" to "Nazi antisemitism" will be amplified. TASS's reporting on Moldovan President Sandu will be used to destabilize Moldova.
3. Undermining Ukraine's legitimacy and morale, particularly through narratives of "atrocities," "tightening mobilization," and denying territorial integrity. RF will aggressively push for regime change in Ukraine through IO, as evidenced by Deputy Vodolatsky's statements and the amplification of images of "liquidated AFU servicemen" with US flag chevrons. RF will also use the SBU wanted list for Russian actress Polina Agureeva as a point of criticism. TASS claims about UAF destroying homes in Tetkino, Kursk, and claims of rescuing UAF soldiers attempting to surrender, will be heavily disseminated. Aksyonov's TASS interview will be widely disseminated to justify RF's actions and blame Ukraine/West. The TASS report on UAF drone supply issues near Volchansk will be used to create internal divisions within Ukraine. Aksyonov's statement on the impossibility of democratic elections in Ukraine will be a key IO piece. The TASS Mariinka video will be used to highlight devastation and blame UAF. RF will continue to claim UAF strikes ZNPP and tortures Donbas residents. RF milbloggers will continue to frame UAF reports of civilian damage as attempts to "evoke pity." The TASS video of the captured UAF soldier will be used to demonstrate UAF weakness and bolster RF morale. RF recruitment efforts will be publicized as evidence of military strength.
4. Promoting RF's diplomatic narrative of being open to talks on "root causes" while maintaining maximalist demands. Aksyonov's statements on Putin/Trump dialogue opening opportunities for Crimea will be used to legitimize RF claims.
5. Exploiting regional tensions, specifically amplifying claims about Moldova and SBU involvement in Transnistria, and now alleging NATO bases in Moldova for "logistic control," to sow instability. RF will monitor and potentially exploit the ongoing Moldovan parliamentary elections, including reporting on diaspora voting and infrastructure.
6. Domestic warnings on cyber security (MVD report) will be used to demonstrate government concern for its citizens.
7. Internal morale boosting activities such as awards ceremonies (Orenburg) will continue to be publicized.

(Confidence: HIGH) RF will continue its efforts to financially integrate occupied Ukrainian territories through mechanisms like the "digital ruble," aiming to solidify administrative control. Internal RF domestic policies will continue to be implemented, indicating an increasing effort to control civilian life.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(Confidence: MEDIUM) RF assesses that NATO's response to the escalating drone provocations and the current geopolitical climate (China's demands, Israeli conflict) is weak and launches a coordinated, large-scale multi-domain offensive operation:

1. Ground Offensive: RF commits significant operational reserves to crush the UAF salient at Dobropillya, aiming for a decisive encirclement and destruction of UAF units. Simultaneously, a secondary major ground assault is launched from the Yunakovka bridgehead towards Sumy City, employing armored thrusts and airborne elements, designed to open a new operational front and stretch UAF defenses to their breaking point. This would involve a significant disregard for personnel losses in pursuit of strategic objectives. RF will also launch simultaneous ground assaults in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, leveraging recent tactical gains like the capture of the M113 APC, and intensify offensive actions in Kharkiv Oblast (Vovchansk area, Khatnye sector), including attempting to encircle any remaining UAF units in Synelnykivskyi forest. A simultaneous escalation of heavy artillery and FPV drone attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopol district) to fix UAF forces, coupled with a renewed push on Dronovka near Siversk. RF would exploit the claimed destruction of the 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade near Kirovsk for further tactical gains.
2. Air/Missile Offensive: Building on the currently executing "massive strike" with confirmed cruise missile launches, RF unleashes a catastrophic, prolonged missile and drone campaign against Kyiv and all major Ukrainian population centers, targeting all remaining government infrastructure, critical air defense systems, and the entire energy grid, aimed at causing widespread collapse, societal paralysis, and a complete, irreversible blackout. This strike would utilize all available strategic bombers (7 Tu-95MS, Tu-160) with sustained cruise missile launches, hypersonic (Kinzhal from MiG-31K), ballistic (from Crimea and now Kursk Governorate to Sumy/Lebedyn), Kalibr (from Black Sea platforms, including one confirmed towards Zaporizhzhia, and two others towards Novyy Buh/Kazanka), and conventional ballistic missiles, alongside mass drone swarm attacks (including multiple UAVs directly targeting Kyiv with confirmed impacts and numerous other groups, including new groups from northern Sumy and Vinnytsia, and a drone in central Poltava Oblast towards Myrhorod), and active Smerch MLRS and high-speed targets (Mykolaiv/Kirovohrad, Balta), launched from multiple vectors, to overwhelm UAF air defenses. This would involve rapid re-arming and re-launch of strategic assets previously involved in the initial wave, sustained over 24-48 hours. Targeted drone strikes against logistics nodes, such as those seen in Sumy, would be scaled up significantly.
3. Hybrid Warfare Escalation: Concurrently, RF launches coordinated cyberattacks against NATO critical infrastructure (energy, financial systems, transportation, military C2), coupled with drone swarm attacks against multiple sensitive military installations within NATO territory (e.g., airbases, command centers) and strategic infrastructure (e.g., ports, airports), aimed at overwhelming NATO response capabilities and directly challenging the credibility of Article 5. RF also conducts covert sabotage operations against critical infrastructure in Western Europe, potentially including acts of terrorism in response to perceived UAF provocations in NATO countries. RF exploits the Moldovan political instability and its fabricated "forceful scenario" narrative, now compounded by claims of NATO bases in Moldova, to further destabilize the country, potentially creating a new flashpoint and diverting international attention. RF launches overt and covert efforts to destabilize the Ukrainian government, leveraging IO to call for regime change and foment internal unrest, coinciding with the military offensive. This would include direct interference in the ongoing Moldovan elections to install a pro-RF government.

This MDCOA would be designed to shatter UAF command and control, force a catastrophic choice on the allocation of strategic reserves, and directly challenge NATO's deterrence posture, potentially initiating a broader conflict, while simultaneously aiming to achieve a decisive victory in Ukraine before international response can fully materialize.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Immediate (0-6 hours - CRITICAL, ACTIVELY UNFOLDING):
  • Decision Point: UAF Air Command is currently making immediate decisions regarding the deployment of interceptors, activation of additional air defense systems, and potential dispersal of high-value assets in response to the ongoing widespread UAV threats, though missile threats appear to be receding, while drone threats persist, particularly to Vasylkiv and in Kyiv/Chernihiv Oblasts, and central Poltava Oblast (towards Myrhorod). This specifically targets Kyiv (with confirmed impacts, and new UAV/missile groups towards Vyshhorod/Irpiin/Bucha, Boyarka, Vasylkiv, Obukhiv, Ukrainka, Boryspil, Vishneve, Makariv, Sviatoshynskyi, Obolonskyi), Poltava, Cherkasy, southern Kyiv Oblast, Vinnytsia Oblast, Pervomaisk, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Marhanets, Kharkiv (including city), Pokrovsk, Kupiansk (aviation strike assets), Sumy Oblast (new UAV groups, КАБ launches, and now confirmed cruise missiles and ballistic missiles), Vinnytsia Oblast (new UAV groups and confirmed cruise missiles), and other regions, including Starokostiantyniv, Derazhnia. The renewed nationwide alert demands immediate and adaptive AD.
  • Timeline: RF ground forces will attempt to stabilize or exploit the Dobropillya situation, and continue localized engagements in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast (Nikopol) and Kharkiv Oblast (Khatnye, Vovchansk), and dense strikes on Dronovka. Targeted drone strikes against personnel and vehicles in concealed positions, as per the Воин DV video, will continue. Exploitation of claimed destruction of UAF 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade near Kirovsk may commence. Continued, intense RF aerial activity (UAVs) can be expected across eastern, northern, central, and southern Ukraine, though missile threats appear to be subsiding, while drone threats persist.
• Near-Term (6-48 hours):
  • Decision Point: UAF High Command must decide on the level of response to the current widespread RF aerial strikes and further RF territorial gains in Dnipropetropavsk/Donetsk/Kharkiv/Sumy, as well as any escalation of hybrid attacks against NATO. UAF must decide on resource allocation for emergency services and infrastructure repair following the current attacks, especially in Zaporizhzhia, Khmelnytskyi, and now Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa.
  • Timeline: Intensified RF ground operations are likely in Dobropillya, Huliaipilske, Siversk, and Kharkiv directions. Post-strike Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for Kinzhal/ballistic/cruise/Kalibr strikes will be critical to inform recovery and defensive operations. NATO allies will likely convene urgent consultations regarding RF hybrid operations and the potential for Article 5 implications, especially following Poland's fighter scramble. Continued RF information operations regarding Moldova, UAF financial issues, the "NATO Cyber Headquarters," and calls for regime change in Ukraine are expected. RF will closely monitor Moldovan elections, potentially with an intent to interfere.

6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. IMMEDIATE AIR DEFENSE ACTIVATION & CIVILIAN ALERT (CRITICAL MULTI-VECTOR DRONE THREAT): All available air defense systems must be at their highest readiness level and actively engaged against the persistent and multi-vector drone threats, now focused on Kyiv (especially Vasylkiv, Fastiv, Bila Tserkva, and the main body over Kyiv/Chernihiv Oblasts), Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopol), and central Poltava Oblast (towards Myrhorod), and Oleksandriyskyi district in Kirovohrad Oblast. Continue to disseminate immediate, urgent civilian air raid alerts nationwide. Prioritize mobile C-UAS and missile interceptor deployment to protect critical energy infrastructure and population centers from current and anticipated follow-on drone strikes. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE - GIVEN ONGOING DRONE THREATS)
2. ISR Re-tasking (BDA, Strategic Asset Status, UAV Tracking & New UAV Vectors, Aviation Strike Threat, Kalibr Launches, Ballistic Launches, Kleban-Byk claims, Kharkiv Advances, UAF Surrender/Friendly Fire, UAF Drone Supply, Synelnykivskyi Forest, Nikopol Damage, Mariinka, ZNPP, Donbas Torture, Dronovka Strikes, RF Attack Stats, Sumy Trucks, Odesa Attacks, RF Drone Strikes (Воин DV), 63rd Brigade Status, Mirnohrad Equipment): Prioritize all available ISR assets (HUMINT, SIGINT, IMINT, OSINT verification) to conduct immediate BDA for Kinzhal, ballistic, cruise, and Kalibr missile strikes. Focus on real-time tracking of current UAV, MLRS, and high-speed missile trajectories, especially the multiple UAVs in/around Kyiv and Kharkiv, and new groups from Sumy and Vinnytsia Oblasts. Provide immediate updates on any observed aviation strike assets (КАБ/FAB) threatening Pokrovsk and Kupiansk. Urgently verify RF claims of eliminating Azov/Lyut militants and equipment near Kleban-Byk reservoir, RF claims of advances in Kharkiv Oblast (especially Khatnye sector), RF claims of repelling UAF counterattacks in Sumy, RF claims of UAF soldiers attempting to surrender under friendly fire, RF claims of UAF drone supply issues near Volchansk, and RF claims of UAF units blocked in Synelnykivskyi forest. Conduct BDA for Nikopol district following overnight attacks. Analyze TASS Mariinka video for tactical insights into urban destruction. Urgently verify RF claims of UAF striking ZNPP and torturing Donbas residents. Urgently verify RF claims of dense strikes on Dronovka and UAF losses near Siversk. Assess the veracity of RF claims regarding UAF reporting on attack statistics. Conduct BDA for the drone attack on 5 trucks in Sumy. Conduct BDA for the overnight attacks on Odesa Oblast. Confirm the location, specific targets, and precise damage assessment from the Воин DV video. Independently verify the claims made by the captured UAF soldier regarding the destruction of the 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade near Kirovsk. Independently verify the claim of over 20 units of destroyed Russian equipment near Mirnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, from the БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
3. Enhanced Cross-Border Threat Assessment (Sumy/Kharkiv & Transnistria): Elevate threat assessment for renewed RF ground offensive in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Position mobile reserves and conduct pre-emptive artillery strikes on suspected RF staging areas/logistics near Yunakovka, Volchansk, Tykhyi, Vovchanski Khutory, and Dronovka. Intensify monitoring of the Transnistria region for any unusual troop movements or heightened rhetoric. Closely monitor Moldovan parliamentary elections. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
4. Strengthen Counter-Hybrid Defenses & NATO Coordination: Share all available intelligence on RF drone capabilities and tactics with NATO partners. Urgently request heightened electronic warfare support and shared air domain awareness. Implement enhanced physical security protocols around critical infrastructure nationwide. Proactively counter RF narratives about "NATO Cyber Headquarters against Russia." Coordinate closely with Poland following their fighter jet scramble. (CRITICAL/HIGH)
5. Proactive Information Warfare Counter-Narratives: Develop and immediately disseminate proactive counter-narratives to RF propaganda, specifically addressing RF Deputy Vodolatsky's calls for regime change in Ukraine, RF claims of eliminating Azov/Lyut militants, the images of "liquidated AFU servicemen" with US flag chevrons, the reporting on Polina Agureeva, Vladimir Saldo's extreme rhetoric, RF claims of UAF destroying homes in Tetkino, Kursk, RF claims of UAF soldiers attempting to surrender under friendly fire, Aksyonov's TASS interview, the TASS report on UAF drone supply issues near Volchansk, Aksyonov's claims that democratic elections in Ukraine are impossible, RF claims of dense strikes on Dronovka, and RF milbloggers' attempts to frame Kyiv damage as "evoking pity." Counter RF claims of UAF striking ZNPP and torturing Donbas residents. Counter RF narratives of military heroism by highlighting the high cost in personnel losses for RF units and the indiscriminate targeting of civilians in Kyiv (10 injured, 3 killed) and Zaporizhzhia (21 injured). Leverage the ДСНС videos and photos to highlight RF's targeting of civilians and UAF's humanitarian response capabilities. Highlight UAF psychological rehabilitation efforts. (HIGH)
6. Resource Prioritization (Long-Range Precision Strike & Air Defense): Advocate forcefully for the immediate delivery of Western long-range precision strike capabilities and additional modern air defense systems (including Patriots). Highlight their proven effectiveness. The current wave of cruise missile, Kalibr, ballistic missile, and drone attacks, particularly the direct impacts in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia, underscores this urgent requirement. (HIGH)
7. Monitor RF Logistics & Internal Dissension: Intensify ISR on fuel and transportation networks within Lipetsk, Sevastopol, and other RF regions. Monitor for signs of increased public discontent. Target vulnerable logistics nodes. Track implementation and impact of RF's new driving license revocation policy and the expanded airport restrictions. (MEDIUM)
8. Target RF C2: Continue to prioritize targeting RF command and control nodes, especially UAV C2 points and command posts overseeing ground offensives. Precision strikes on these targets directly degrade RF's ability to coordinate adaptive operations. (HIGH)