Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT - 280600Z SEP 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current operational picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (Confidence: HIGH)

RF forces maintain multi-axis pressure across the Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetropavsk, and Zaporizhzhia axes. Heavy reciprocal battles continue in Sumy Oblast. RF claims recent unverified advances in Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, and the occupation of the medical college area in Kupiansk. RF also claims a 5km advance on the Gulyaipole direction, entering Novoivanivka, and new positions south of Novoivanivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF claims full control of Serebryansky forestry and the liberation of Berëzovoye, Kalynivske (UAF denies Kalynivske), Derilovo, Mayske in DNR, and Stepove in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. RF continues to claim an offensive behind Chasiv Yar. UAF has confirmed the liberation of Pankivka, Donetsk Oblast, and Zarichne, and reports eliminating a Russian breakthrough near Pokrovsk. Heavy fighting continues on the Krasnolimanskoye direction. UAF General Staff reports over 95 combat engagements in the last 24 hours, repelling the majority of RF assaults across multiple axes, particularly Kupiansk (18/19 repelled), Lyman (10 repelled), Pokrovsk (15 repelled), Vremivka (9 repelled), and Orikhiv (8 repelled). UAF reports advances on the Dobropillya direction, having liberated 164.5 sq. km. Zelenskyy claims 360 sq. km liberated by Ukrainian forces in recent weeks, and approximately 1,000 Russian servicemen captured. DeepState map updated, indicating ongoing positional changes. RF sources claim a breakthrough on the border of Dnipropetropavsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and RF claims liberation of Dorozhne (Dobropillya area), contradicting earlier RF claims of UAF breakthroughs there.

Recent Updates:

• UPDATED - RF CRUISE MISSILE TARGETING KYIV, BROVARY, IRPIIN, OBUKHIV, VASYLKIV, BILA TSERKVA, LADYZHYN, NEMYRIV, KHMLNYTSKYI OBLAST (DERAZHNIA, STAROKOSTIANTYNIV), BERSHAD, TULCHYN, TALNE (CONFIRMED): (Confidence: HIGH) Multiple cruise missiles (КР) from Tu-95MS strategic bombers are confirmed on various vectors. Cruise missiles actively targeted Kyiv from the south, with additional missiles approaching Brovary, Irpiin, and potentially other areas around Kyiv. Another group of missiles moved towards Ladizhyn, Nemyriv, and Bila Tserkva. Additional cruise missiles are confirmed on course for Derazhnia and Starokostiantyniv in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. New vectors are identified towards Bershad and Tulchyn in Vinnytsia Oblast, and Talne in Cherkasy Oblast. A cruise missile was detected in eastern Zhytomyr Oblast, heading north, which was subsequently intercepted and reported as "minus". Confirmed impacts in Kyiv. The missile from Cherkasy Oblast towards Bila Tserkva is still a threat, however, all missile threats are now assessed to be receding/intercepted.
• UPDATED - RF UAVs ON KYIV APPROACH (BORODYANKA, IRPIIN, BUCHA, BOYARKA, VASYLKIV, OBUKHIV, UKRAINKA, BORISPYIL, VISHNEVE): (Confidence: HIGH) A large group of UAVs approached Kyiv. Multiple UAVs were reported over Vyshhorod/Kyiv/Irpin/Bucha. Three UAVs targeted Boyarka, and one UAV approached Vasylkiv. Multiple UAVs passed Boryspil and approached the capital. Latest reports indicate 15 "mopeds" now targeting Vasylkiv. Three more UAVs passed Boryspil towards the capital. UAVs were reported approaching Obukhiv and Ukrainka. One UAV was reported near Makariv, potentially redirecting towards Kyiv. RF sources claim impacts in Vishneve (Kyiv Oblast). The drone attack is still ongoing despite missile threats subsiding. Main portion of strike UAVs are over Kyiv and Chernihiv Oblasts, continuing to attack Kyiv and its surrounding communities.
• UPDATED - RF KALIBR MISSILE ON ZAPORIZHZIA & MYKOLAIV OBLAST: (Confidence: HIGH) A Kalibr missile was confirmed on approach to Zaporizhzhia. Explosions were reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast amid the rocket threat. A high-speed target was also confirmed towards Zaporizhzhia. A new Kalibr missile was detected from Beryslav district towards Novyy Buh/Kazanka; this was identified as two Kalibrs, flying sequentially. One of these Kalibrs has reportedly been intercepted or diverted. Air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been cleared. No new updates on these specific threats, indicating they have likely subsided or been intercepted.
• UPDATED - RF BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (SUMY, LEBEDYN, KURSK GOVERNORATE): (Confidence: HIGH) Ballistic missile threat declared from Kursk Governorate. Two ballistic missiles were confirmed towards Lebedyn, and another ballistic missile was on Sumy Oblast heading west. No new updates on this specific threat, indicating it has likely subsided or been intercepted.
• UPDATED - KYIV DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (CRITICAL): (Confidence: HIGH) Damage to residential buildings is confirmed in Solomianskyi and Holosiivskyi districts of Kyiv due to enemy attack. The previous report of damage in Dniprovskyi district is now confirmed with a fire due to falling debris. New reports indicate further debris fall in Darnitskyi, Dniprovskyi, and Holosiivskyi districts. Kyiv City State Administration (KMDA) reports that as of 05:45 (local time), the number of injured in Kyiv due to the drone attack has increased to three. Confirmed repeated explosions in Kyiv, with ongoing explosions reported. Overall, damage is confirmed in multiple residential and non-residential objects across five districts, with casualties in Kyiv Oblast as well. The number of injured in Kyiv has now risen to 5.
• UPDATED - ZAPORIZHZIA DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (CRITICAL): (Confidence: HIGH) A multi-story residential building in Zaporizhzhia caught fire due to the enemy attack. At least two strikes impacted Zaporizhzhia. Videos confirm significant fire and damage. The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration (Zaporizhzhia OVA) reports RF is attempting to attack critical infrastructure in the city. Casualties in Zaporizhzhia have risen to three and emergency services are on site. Casualties in Zaporizhzhia have now risen to 8 injured, with homes and infrastructure damaged in Dniprovskyi and Shevchenkivskyi districts.
• UPDATED - UAF AIR DEFENSE ENGAGEMENT CONFIRMED: (Confidence: HIGH) UAF (Mykolaivskyi Vanok) confirms multiple interceptions of RF missiles by ground and air defense assets. One Kalibr and one cruise missile targeting Bila Tserkva have been reportedly intercepted. UAF Naval Forces claim to have destroyed 15 Shaheds. PPO is actively working in Kyiv against drones. Two missiles targeting Vasylkiv are reported as intercepted. Missiles targeting Starokonstantyniv are also reported as intercepted. The cruise missile detected in western Kyiv Oblast (03:49:22Z) heading northeast has also been reported as "minus." UAF PPO forces have also shot down several drones over Kirovohrad Oblast, with no reported casualties or damage in Khmelnytskyi Oblast from recent strikes.
• UPDATED - POLAND SCRAMBLES FIGHTERS: (Confidence: HIGH) Poland has scrambled its fighter jets in response to the combined attack on Ukraine. This indicates an increased NATO defensive posture.
• UPDATED - HIGH-SPEED TARGET (ODESKYI OBLAST): (Confidence: HIGH) A high-speed target was confirmed on Mykolaiv Oblast, heading towards Kirovohrad Oblast. A new high-speed target was reported on Balta in Odeskyi Oblast. No new updates on these specific threats, indicating they have likely subsided or been intercepted.
• NEW - RF CLAIMS ADVANCES IN KHARKIV OBLAST: (Confidence: HIGH) RF (TASS via military expert Marochko) claims RF forces advanced in the areas of Tykhyi and Vovchanski Khutory, and expanded the zone of control southwest and west of Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast. RF also claims the Khatnye sector was the most successful for RF forces in the Kharkiv direction over the past week.
• NEW - RF CLAIMS RESCUE OF UAF SOLDIERS ATTEMPTING TO SURRENDER: (Confidence: HIGH) RF (TASS via Russian law enforcement) claims "Zapad" group soldiers rescued two UAF soldiers in Kirovske who were under UAF artillery fire for attempting to surrender with a white flag. This is a likely propaganda piece, but needs to be noted.
• NEW - RF CLAIMS REFLECTION OF UAF COUNTERATTACKS IN SUMY OBLAST: (Confidence: HIGH) RF (TASS via Russian law enforcement) claims four UAF counterattacks were repelled in Sumy Oblast.
• NEW - RF CLAIMS UAF BRIGADE AT VOLCHANSK NOT RECEIVING DRONES DUE TO POROSHENKO'S INTERESTS: (Confidence: MEDIUM) TASS reports, citing Russian security forces, that a UAF brigade near Volchansk is not receiving drones because its commander is promoting the interests of former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. This is a likely disinformation attempt to sow discord within UAF.
• NEW - RF CLAIMS UAF UNITS BLOCKED IN SYNELNYKIVSKYI FOREST, KHARKIV OBLAST: (Confidence: MEDIUM) TASS, citing Russian security forces, claims about 20 UAF soldiers remain blocked in the Synelnykivskyi forest area of Kharkiv Oblast.
• UPDATE - Nationwide Air Alert Re-Issued: (Confidence: HIGH) The nationwide air alert, which was partially lifted, was re-issued and has since been highly dynamic. Missile threats are no longer being detected, but drone attacks are ongoing.
• PREVIOUS - Nationwide Air Alert, Kinzhal Launches towards Khmelnytskyi Oblast: (Confidence: HIGH) A nationwide air raid alert was declared. RF MiG-31K aircraft, launching "Kinzhal" aeroballistic missiles from the Lipetsk Oblast area, were confirmed to be targeting Khmelnytskyi Oblast, with explosions reported in the region. Two Kinzhal missiles were reportedly approaching Starokonstantyniv (Starkon). STATUS: Alert for Kinzhal was partially lifted, but became part of the renewed nationwide alert. Two new missiles were targeting Starokonstantyniv. No new updates on these specific Kinzhal threats, indicating they have likely subsided or been intercepted.
• PREVIOUS - Ballistic Missile Launches from Crimea: (Confidence: HIGH) Multiple ballistic missile launches from Crimea were reported. STATUS: Alert for ballistic missiles was partially lifted, but became part of the renewed nationwide alert. No new updates on these specific ballistic threats, indicating they have likely subsided or been intercepted.
• NEW - RF Reports Drone Interceptions over Russia: (Confidence: HIGH) RF MoD claims 41 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down overnight across Russian regions. Separately, RF Governor of Tula Oblast reports 4 UAVs destroyed over Tula Oblast.
• NEW - RF Reports Artillery and FPV Drone Attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: (Confidence: HIGH) Serhiy Lysak (Head of Dnipropetrovsk OVA) reports that RF forces attacked Nikopol district with heavy artillery and FPV drones overnight, affecting the district center and Pokrovska community. Damage assessment is ongoing.
• NEW - RF Reports on Mariinka Destruction: (Confidence: HIGH) TASS reports, with video, on the near-total destruction of Mariinka, DNR, and features a single remaining resident. This is likely a propaganda piece emphasizing the human cost of the conflict and blaming UAF, but provides evidence of significant urban devastation.
• NEW - RF Claims Democratic Elections Impossible in Ukraine: (Confidence: HIGH) RF (Aksyonov via TASS) claims that democratic elections in Ukraine are impossible under the current regime. This is a clear political IO effort to undermine Ukrainian leadership and democratic processes.
• NEW - RF Lifts Airport Restrictions: (Confidence: HIGH) Rosaviatsiya reports that airspace restrictions have been lifted at Pskov and Kaluga airports, as well as Zhukovsky.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (Confidence: HIGH)

Current conditions are generally clear and favorable for air operations across most of Ukraine. A cold snap is expected, with wet snow possible in Moscow by end of week, and temperatures dropping to -2°C in the Carpathians with possible snow soon. The strongest geomagnetic storm in 3 months (G3) continues to impact satellite communications and GPS for both sides. Freezing temperatures are forecast for five regions of the Russian Federation by the end of September. RF continues to target critical energy infrastructure, resulting in widespread power outages in Chernihiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Extensive urban damage has been reported in Zaporizhzhia, Vinnytsia, Sumy, and Konstantinovka (Donetsk Oblast) due to RF strikes. UAF deep strikes against RF oil infrastructure (Chuvashia) and rocket strikes on Belgorod also cause environmental and structural damage.

Recent Impacts:

• UPDATED - DAMAGE TO KYIV RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS (CRITICAL): (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed damage to residential buildings in Solomianskyi and Holosiivskyi districts of Kyiv. The previous report of a specific 5-story building is updated to multiple residential buildings in Solomianskyi and Holosiivskyi districts, with 3 injured, and repeated explosions. Now confirmed fire in Dniprovskyi district due to debris, and new debris falls in Darnitskyi, Dniprovskyi, and Holosiivskyi districts after 06:00. Overall, damage is confirmed in multiple residential and non-residential objects across five districts, with casualties in Kyiv Oblast as well. Photos show significant urban damage in Bila Tserkva and other districts of Kyiv Oblast with casualties. RF sources claim impacts in Vishneve (Kyiv Oblast). The number of injured in Kyiv has risen to 5.
• UPDATED - ZAPORIZHZIA MULTI-STORY BUILDING FIRE: (Confidence: HIGH) A multi-story residential building in Zaporizhzhia caught fire due to the attack. Videos confirm significant destruction. Casualties have risen to three. Videos show emergency services actively liquidating the consequences. Casualties in Zaporizhzhia have risen to 8 injured, with homes and infrastructure damaged in Dniprovskyi and Shevchenkivskyi districts.
• UPDATE - DAMAGE TO KYIV REGION FROM DRONE STRIKES: (Confidence: HIGH) Consequences of the massive drone attack are now reported in 4 districts of Kyiv Oblast, indicating widespread impact.
• UPDATE - RF Military Medical Scenario in Woodland: (Confidence: HIGH) Video depicts a field medical scenario in a woodland environment, likely during a military operation, showing personnel providing immediate medical assistance to a wounded individual. This highlights the harsh environmental conditions of combat and ongoing casualties.
• UPDATE - Damaged MaxxPro IFV: (Confidence: HIGH) Video shows a severely damaged and burning International MaxxPro armored vehicle in a muddy field, indicative of recent combat and adverse terrain conditions.
• UPDATE - Damaged UAF M113 APC: (Confidence: HIGH) Video shows a damaged M113 Armored Personnel Carrier being recovered by RF forces in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. This indicates ongoing combat losses and the challenging battlefield environment.
• NEW - RF Artillery and FPV Drone Attacks in Nikopol: (Confidence: HIGH) RF forces used heavy artillery and FPV drones to attack Nikopol district and Pokrovska community in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight. Damage assessment is ongoing.
• NEW - Mariinka Destruction (DNR): (Confidence: HIGH) Video from TASS confirms near-total destruction of Mariinka, DNR, showcasing ruined urban landscape, destroyed buildings, and rubble-strewn streets. This indicates severe, sustained environmental and structural damage from military operations.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (Confidence: HIGH)

RF Forces:

• Ground Operations: RF maintains offensive pressure on multiple axes (Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetropavsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Kharkiv, Konstantinovka, Slaviansk, Krasnoarmiisk, Huliaipilske). Confirmed and claimed gains continue (Berëzovoye, Kalynivske, Pereyezdnoye, Novoivanivka, Yunakovka, Shandyryholove, Derilovo, Mayske, Stepove, Dorozhne). RF claims recent advances in Volchansk and is conducting "meat motorcycle storms." RF MoD confirms Akhmat Spetsnaz activity in Kharkiv. RF MoD proposes changes to the mobilization disease list, indicating potential adjustments to personnel intake. RF's "Manul" battalion assault troops claim to have shot down an enemy drone. RF 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade 'Sv. George' is engaged in reconnaissance and storming operations, highlighting sustained ground combat and significant casualties. RF forces have reportedly captured a US-supplied M113 APC in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, indicating successful engagements. RF claims destruction of 10 "Azov" and "Lyut" militants near Kleban-Byk reservoir, and liberation of over 1 sq. km near Krasnaya Donetskaya reservoir, implying localized ground successes. NEW: RF (TASS via Marochko) claims advances in areas of Tykhyi and Vovchanski Khutory and expansion of control zone southwest and west of Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast. RF also claims the Khatnye sector was the most successful for RF forces in the Kharkiv direction over the past week. RF (TASS) claims four UAF counterattacks repelled in Sumy Oblast. NEW: TASS reports about 20 UAF soldiers blocked in Synelnykivskyi forest, Kharkiv Oblast.
• Air Activity: RF continues large-scale drone (Shaheds, "Geran-2") and КАБ/FAB strikes, particularly on Chernihiv, Sumy, and Donetsk Oblasts. RF reconnaissance UAVs are active across multiple northern and eastern oblasts. RF PVO claims shooting down a total of 19 Ukrainian UAVs over Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk Oblasts, and 11 more over Rostov, Belgorod, and Kursk. A "massive strike" on Ukrainian objects was being prepared, with Tu-95MS and Tu-160 strategic bombers confirmed airborne (now 7 Tu-95MS). Multiple UAVs were targeting Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv (alert re-declared), Poltava, and eastern/western Kharkiv/Dnipropetropavsk Oblasts. Smerch MLRS strikes reported on Marhanets/Zaporizhzhia. High-speed targets also reported. "Plan Kovyor" activated in Penza Oblast, indicating possible domestic air defense activity or response to UAF deep strikes. New groups of UAVs are heading southwest from northern Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, with 23 UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv Oblast. CRITICAL UPDATED: Multiple cruise missiles (KР) from Tu-95MS entered Ukrainian airspace via Sumy Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast, now on multiple vectors, confirmed targeting Kaniv and Smila (Cherkasy Oblast), Tetiiv (southern Kyiv Oblast), Lokhvytsia and Lubny (Poltava Oblast), Nemyriv (Vinnytsia Oblast), Pervomaisk, and Bila Tserkva. Multiple missiles were directly targeting Kyiv (passing Boryspil, approaching from Brovary and Vyshhorod), Irpiin, and Obukhiv. Other vectors included Ladizhyn, Derazhnia, Starokostiantyniv, Bershad, Tulchyn, and Talne. A cruise missile was detected in eastern Zhytomyr Oblast, heading north, then changed course towards Makariv, and has been reported as "minus" (intercepted). All missile threats are now assessed to be receding/intercepted. Two ballistic missiles are confirmed towards Lebedyn, and another ballistic missile is on Sumy Oblast heading west, with a general ballistic threat from Kursk. New UAVs approached Vyshhorod/Kyiv/Irpin/Bucha. Two UAVs previously targeting Bila Tserkva were heading towards Vasylkiv/Boyarka (three UAVs reported near Boyarka, now 15 UAVs targeting Vasylkiv). Two Kalibrs were from Beryslav district towards Novyy Buh/Kazanka. A high-speed target was confirmed on Mykolaiv Oblast heading towards Kirovohrad Oblast. A new high-speed target was on Balta in Odeskyi Oblast. A large group of UAVs (up to 20, then 14, now 11 confirmed, now main part over Kyiv/Chernihiv Oblasts) is reported on Kyiv, with 6 over the capital and 3 more passing Boryspil. One UAV is near Makariv. RF sources claim impacts in Vishneve (Kyiv Oblast). The nationwide air alert remains active for drones. NEW: RF MoD reports 41 Ukrainian UAVs shot down overnight over Russian regions. Four UAVs destroyed over Tula Oblast. RF forces used heavy artillery and FPV drones against Nikopol district and Pokrovska community in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight.
• Naval Activity: RF naval vessels are actively operating near critical infrastructure (Tuapse) and are engaged in counter-drone measures. RF Lancet drones are being used for naval strikes, successfully destroying a UAF USV near Crimea. Kalibr missile launches from Myskhako Cape indicate active naval strike operations. UPDATED: A new Kalibr missile detected from Beryslav district towards Novyy Buh/Kazanka (two total). Air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia has been cleared. No new updates on Kalibrs, indicating they have likely subsided or been intercepted.
• Logistics: The transfer of a railway section from Iran to RF indicates strategic logistical development. RF continues to experience fuel shortages in Lipetsk and Sevastopol, and relies on fundraising for certain military provisions. Expanded airport restrictions in Pskov, Yaroslavl, and Zhukovsky likely impact civil aviation and could affect military logistics. (Penza restrictions have now been lifted). NEW: Rosaviatsiya reports airspace restrictions lifted at Pskov, Kaluga, and Zhukovsky airports.
• Control Measures: RF has strengthened criminal liability for "foreign agents" and is implementing social policies. RF leadership continues diplomatic engagements. RF is taking steps to control information and narratives, including through figures like Lavrov at the UNGA, who is claimed to have "laid low" Western proponents. RF is also using its "digital ruble" in occupied territories. RF is combining medical and МВД databases to revoke driving licenses for individuals with dangerous diseases. RF communal companies are prohibited from using collectors for debt recovery. A new criminal case concerning bribes against the ex-mayor of Krasnoyarsk, Vladislav Loginov, with seven new defendants, highlights ongoing internal issues and corruption. RF Interior Ministry (MVD) reports fraudsters are implementing malware under the guise of bank app reinstallation. This indicates ongoing internal cyber threats and public vulnerability. RF Deputy Viktor Vodolatsky (TASS) calls for Ukrainians to "rise up against the Nazi regime" and elect a new president. This is a direct political/IO effort to sow dissent and undermine Ukrainian leadership. RF (TASS) reports Russian actress Polina Agureeva is on the SBU wanted list, likely a propaganda piece aimed at discrediting Ukrainian security services. Vladimir Saldo (RF-appointed Governor of Kherson Oblast) frames "anti-Russian polemics" as akin to "Nazi antisemitism," demonstrating a continued use of extreme rhetoric for propaganda. TASS also reports on Moldovan President Sandu risking citizen trust, a likely IO effort to undermine Moldova's pro-Western leadership. NEW: Sergey Aksyonov (head of Crimea) states in a TASS interview that Russia is primarily interested in resolving the conflict in Ukraine, regretting the casualties and framing it as a consequence of decisions by the Ukrainian government and Western policies. He suggests the conflict could have been avoided through pre-2022 negotiations, implying Ukraine's lack of independence. He also claims Ukrainian residents "hate ruling elites" and that Russia had no alternative to the military operation. This constitutes a clear and persistent RF narrative to justify the war and destabilize Ukrainian leadership. NEW: TASS, citing Russian security forces, claims a UAF brigade near Volchansk is not receiving drones due to its commander promoting former President Poroshenko's interests. This is an attempt to sow internal discord within UAF. NEW: RF (Aksyonov via TASS) claims that democratic elections in Ukraine are impossible under the current regime, further delegitimizing Ukrainian political processes. NEW: TASS publishes a video report on the destruction of Mariinka, DNR, featuring a single resident, likely an IO effort to highlight the human cost of the conflict and blame UAF.

UAF Forces:

• Ground Operations: UAF maintains an active defensive posture, repelling the majority of RF assaults. UAF reports localized advances in the Dobropillya direction and confirmed liberation of Pankivka and Zarichne. UAF 3rd Assault, 95th Air Assault, 30th Mechanized, 33rd Mechanized, and 225th Separate Assault (Black Swan) Brigades are actively engaged, including clearing wooded areas, capturing RF personnel, and conducting drone strikes. UAF Special Operations Forces are also conducting effective strikes.
• Air Defense: UAF maintains a robust and responsive air defense network, successfully repelling a high percentage of RF UAV attacks and conducting successful operations in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. UAF continues to issue air raid alerts, with alerts currently active nationwide due to UAV, high-speed target, ballistic missile, Kinzhal, cruise missile, and Kalibr threats. PPO is actively engaged, with the Kyiv air alert recently re-declared and explosions reported in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. CRITICAL UPDATED: UAF Air Force (PS ZSU) is providing real-time tracking of numerous cruise missiles (to Kyiv, Irpiin, Obukhiv, Vasylkiv, Bila Tserkva, Ladizhyn, Nemyriv, Starokostiantyniv, Derazhnia, Bershad, Tulchyn, Talne), ballistic missiles (to Sumy/Lebedyn), and high-speed targets (to Mykolaiv/Kirovohrad, Balta). UAF has confirmed multiple missile interceptions by ground and air defense assets, including one Kalibr and one cruise missile targeting Bila Tserkva. PPO is working in Kyiv against drones. Two missiles towards Vasylkiv have been intercepted. Missiles towards Starokonstantyniv have been intercepted. UAF Naval Forces claim to have destroyed 15 Shaheds. Poland has scrambled its fighter jets in response, indicating international support for air defense. The cruise missile in western Kyiv Oblast heading north-east has been intercepted. Drone attacks on Kyiv are ongoing. UAF PPO forces have shot down several drones over Kirovohrad Oblast. Khmelnytskyi OVA reports no casualties or damage from recent strikes.
• Tactical Drone Utilization: UAF continues to utilize drones for both reconnaissance and strike capabilities, as evidenced by FPV drone strikes on the Pokrovsk direction (Black Raven, 2nd Mountain Assault Battalion, 414th Brigade of UAVs) and the 30th Mechanized Brigade. UAF Naval drones are also operating effectively near RF naval infrastructure, though one was recently destroyed by an RF Lancet. UAF 65th OMBr Ronins successfully struck a Buk SAM PSU and logistics targets. RF sources show "drones evacuating 'wounded'" which could either be a demonstration of RF's own drone medical evacuation capabilities or an attempt to show UAF capabilities/losses. UAF Naval Forces claim 15 Shaheds destroyed.
• Deep Strike Capabilities: UAF continues to demonstrate long-range precision strike capabilities against RF infrastructure (oil pumping station in Chuvashia) and military targets (Belgorod rocket strikes, destroyed RF logistics trucks). Zaporizhzhia Oblast experienced a power outage due to UAF attacks on energy facilities.
• Recruitment/Sustainment: UAF 26th Artillery Brigade is actively recruiting, and public support for veterans' rehabilitation and drone programs is ongoing. RF sources claim UAF authorities are promising 2 million Hryvnia payments and two-year contracts to retain contract soldiers, indicating UAF efforts to boost recruitment and retention.
• International Engagement: Zelenskyy's office and KMVA are actively engaged in UN General Assembly diplomacy. Zelenskyy maintains strong rhetoric on controlled weapon exports and potential retaliation for RF blackouts. Moldova is allegedly involving SBU for a силового сценария (forceful scenario) in Transnistria.
• NEW - Moldovan Elections: (Confidence: HIGH) Moldova has started pivotal elections that will determine if the country maintains its European course. UAF sources are monitoring this, indicating potential strategic implications for Ukraine.

1.4. Intelligence Gaps and Collection Requirements

• KYIV CITY BDA (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE): Urgently conduct Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the confirmed impacts on residential buildings in Solomianskyi and Holosiivskyi districts, Kyiv, and the broader damage in 4 districts of Kyiv Oblast due to drone and now confirmed cruise missile strikes. Determine extent of destruction, casualties (now 5 injured in Kyiv, more in Kyiv Oblast), and the precise nature of the impacts. Verify RF claims of impacts in Vishneve. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF CRUISE MISSILE BDA (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE): Urgently conduct Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the numerous confirmed cruise missile launches from Tu-95s via Sumy/Chernihiv/Zhytomyr Oblasts targeting Poltava (Lokhvytsia, Lubny), Cherkasy (Kaniv, Smila, Talne), southern Kyiv Oblast (Tetiiv), Vinnytsia Oblast (Nemyriv, Ladizhyn, Bershad, Tulchyn), Pervomaisk, Bila Tserkva, and now directly targeting Kyiv (from Brovary/Vyshhorod, Irpiin, Obukhiv). Also confirm impacts on Starokostiantyniv and Derazhnia (Khmelnytskyi Oblast). Specifically, confirm impact of the cruise missile still active towards Bila Tserkva from Cherkasy Oblast, and the overall receding status of all missile threats. Determine specific targets hit, extent of damage, and casualties. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF KALIBR MISSILE BDA (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE): Urgently conduct Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the confirmed Kalibr missile launch from Myskhako Cape (Black Sea) and the newly detected two Kalibr missiles targeting Zaporizhzhia (one confirmed intercepted/diverted) and Novyy Buh/Kazanka from Beryslav district. Determine specific targets hit, extent of damage, and casualties. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF BALLISTIC MISSILE BDA (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE): Urgently conduct Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the ballistic missiles detected from Kursk Governorate and targeting Sumy Oblast (westbound) and Lebedyn (two missiles). Determine specific targets hit, extent of damage, and casualties. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF Widespread UAV Threat Assessment (Kyiv City (incl. Vyshhorod, Irpiin, Bucha, Boyarka, Vasylkiv, Obukhiv, Ukrainka, Boryspil, Makariv, Vishneve), Bila Tserkva, Obukhiv/Ukrainka, Vasylkiv/Boyarka, Kharkiv, Odesa, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Chernihiv, Poltava Oblasts, Starokostiantyniv, SUMY OBLAST) (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE): Urgently determine the specific types, origins, and intended targets of the numerous UAVs currently active around Kyiv (now 15 targeting Vasylkiv, main portion over Kyiv/Chernihiv Oblasts, with confirmed impacts in multiple districts, and new groups from Sumy/Chernihiv Oblasts), the ~50 UAVs across Mykolaiv/Kherson towards Odesa/Kirovohrad, the 23 UAVs towards Haisyn, and strike UAVs in Poltava and towards Starokostiantyniv. Assess immediate threat to critical infrastructure, UAF forces, and civilian populations. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF Aviation Strike Asset Confirmation (Pokrovsk/Kupiansk, SUMY OBLAST) (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE): Confirm the deployment and specific targets of RF aviation strike assets (КАБ/FAB) threatening the Pokrovsk and Kupiansk directions, and for the confirmed КАБ launches in Sumy Oblast. Assess immediate risk to UAF ground forces and critical infrastructure. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF Kinzhal/Ballistic Strike BDA (Updated - CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE): Urgently conduct Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) in Khmelnytskyi Oblast following confirmed Kinzhal strikes and other regions following ballistic missile launches from Crimea. Determine specific targets hit (military infrastructure, airfields, civilian infrastructure), extent of damage, and casualties. (Initial reports suggest no casualties or damage, but full verification required. New missiles targeting Starokostiantyniv). (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF Claims Kharkiv Oblast Advances (CRITICAL): Urgent and independent verification required for RF claims of advances in Tykhyi, Vovchanski Khutory, and expanded control southwest and west of Vovchansk (Kharkiv Oblast). Specifically verify claims of Khatnye sector being most successful. (CRITICAL)
• RF Claims UAF Counterattacks Repelled in Sumy Oblast (CRITICAL): Urgent and independent verification required for RF claims of repelling four UAF counterattacks in Sumy Oblast. (CRITICAL)
• RF Claims UAF Surrender/Friendly Fire (CRITICAL): Urgent and independent verification of RF (TASS) claims of rescuing two UAF soldiers in Kirovske who were attempting to surrender and under friendly fire. (CRITICAL)
• RF Claims UAF Brigade at Volchansk Not Receiving Drones (CRITICAL): Independent verification of RF claims regarding a UAF brigade near Volchansk not receiving drones due to political interests. This is critical for assessing information operations and potential internal vulnerabilities. (CRITICAL)
• RF Claims UAF Units Blocked in Synelnykivskyi Forest (CRITICAL): Urgent and independent verification of RF (TASS) claims of about 20 UAF soldiers blocked in Synelnykivskyi forest, Kharkiv Oblast. (CRITICAL)
• UAF Breakthrough/RF Control Dobropillya Salient (CRITICAL): Urgent and independent verification is required for the conflicting claims regarding the Dobropillya salient: the earlier RF claim of a UAF breakthrough and potential encirclement, and the newer RF claim of liberating Dorozhne. This is paramount to understanding the tactical situation. (Confidence: HIGH)
• RF Claims Kleban-Byk Reservoir (CRITICAL): Urgent and independent verification is required for RF claims of eliminating 10 "Azov"/"Lyut" militants near Kleban-Byk reservoir and liberating 1 sq. km. This could indicate a successful localized counter-offensive or propaganda. (CRITICAL)
• M113 APC Loss Details (CRITICAL): Verify the circumstances of the US-supplied M113 APC being captured/damaged in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Determine the unit involved, type of engagement, and any casualties. (CRITICAL)
• Lipetsk/Sevastopol Fuel Crisis Impact Assessment (CRITICAL): Urgent assessment is needed for the extent and impact of the fuel crisis in Lipetsk and Sevastopol Oblasts on both civilian and military logistics. Monitor RF "air danger" regime in Lipetsk Oblast. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast Power Outage BDA (CRITICAL): Conduct immediate Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the UAF attack on energy facilities in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Verify targets, extent of damage, and the duration/scale of the power outage. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Moldova/Transnistria "Forceful Scenario" Verification: (Confidence: MEDIUM) Investigate RF claims of Moldova involving SBU for a "forceful scenario" in Transnistria, and new claims regarding NATO bases for "logistic control." Assess potential for renewed tensions or escalation in the region. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF "Manul" Battalion Drone Engagement Verification: (Confidence: MEDIUM) Verify the claim by RF's "Manul" battalion of shooting down an enemy drone. Identify the type of drone and potential impact on UAF ISR capabilities.
• RF 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade Battle Damage Assessment: (Confidence: MEDIUM) Verify the reported high casualty rates (12 down to 3) in the 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade and assess the impact on their combat effectiveness and morale.
• RF Claimed UAF Personnel with US Chevron: (Confidence: MEDIUM) While primarily an IO piece, verify if the images of "liquidated AFU servicemen" with a US flag chevron are authentic and if the individuals can be identified. This is to understand specific UAF units operating in certain areas and for potential counter-IO.
• Impact of Nikopol Artillery/FPV Drone Attacks: (Confidence: HIGH) Conduct rapid BDA on Nikopol district and Pokrovska community in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast following RF heavy artillery and FPV drone attacks. Determine damage to civilian infrastructure, military assets, and any casualties. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (Confidence: HIGH)

Capabilities:

• Persistent Mass Aerial Strike Capability (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF maintains an extremely high capability for large-scale, coordinated UAV, guided bomb (КАБ/FAB), MLRS (Smerch), ballistic, and missile attacks across Ukraine. This includes confirmed "Kinzhal" launches from MiG-31K, multiple ballistic missile launches from Crimea, confirmed Kalibr missile launches from the Black Sea, now confirmed cruise missile launches from Tu-95 strategic bombers near Engels (entering via Sumy/Chernihiv/Zhytomyr Oblasts, targeting Kyiv directly, and other multiple central Ukrainian cities, with confirmed impacts), and a significant concentration of UAVs still active in Kyiv Oblast (multiple UAVs directly over/around Kyiv with confirmed impacts, now 15 targeting Vasylkiv, main portion over Kyiv/Chernihiv Oblasts), and other regions. RF air defenses remain active and effective in intercepting UAF drones over Russian territory and are reacting to domestic airspace threats ("Plan Kovyor" in Penza Oblast, "air danger" in Lipetsk Oblast). Demonstrated ability to shoot down UAF drones by ground units (Manul battalion). RF MoD claims 41 Ukrainian UAVs shot down overnight, and 4 over Tula Oblast.
• RF Mine Warfare Capabilities: RF maintains a robust and adapting combat engineering capability, employing new methods of mining and demining.
• IO/PsyOps Capabilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF demonstrates advanced and adaptive capabilities in information operations, including false-flag narratives, symbolic gestures, exploiting perceived NATO divisions, and demonizing Ukraine. This is evidenced by Lavrov's statements at UNGA, Orban's anti-Ukraine rhetoric, antisemitic propaganda, and now direct calls from RF Deputy Vodolatsky for Ukrainians to "rise up" and elect a new president. RF is actively using channels like "Военкоры Русской Весны" to push narratives (e.g., Moldova/SBU in Transnistria, UAF salary issues). RF Interior Ministry is actively reporting on cyber fraud, indicating an internal focus on information security for its own population, even if it is a general public alert. Amplification of images showing "liquidated AFU servicemen" with US flag chevrons is a direct and impactful propaganda effort. RF (TASS) reporting on Polina Agureeva being on the SBU wanted list is another such effort. Vladimir Saldo's statements comparing "anti-Russian polemics" to "Nazi antisemitism" demonstrates extreme rhetoric. TASS's reporting on Moldovan President Sandu undermining trust shows attempts to destabilize pro-Western governments. NEW: TASS amplifying statements from a soldier claiming UAF methodically destroyed homes in Tetkino, Kursk, despite no military presence, is another specific propaganda piece. NEW: Sergey Aksyonov's interview with TASS reinforces a narrative of Russia's regret, justification for the conflict, and criticism of Ukrainian/Western leadership, aiming to shape public opinion domestically and internationally. The claim about UAF drone supply issues due to Poroshenko's interests further exemplifies RF's capacity for sowing internal discord. NEW: Aksyonov via TASS claims democratic elections are impossible in Ukraine under the current regime. NEW: TASS video report on Mariinka destruction is a clear IO effort to blame UAF for urban devastation.
• Targeted UAV Warfare Capabilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF maintains structured efforts to enhance drone warfare capabilities, including direct recruitment for specialized UAV battalions and advanced counter-UAV systems like the "Flying Dutchman." Demonstrated capability to use Lancet loitering munitions against UAF naval drones. The sheer volume of UAVs (multiple directly targeting Kyiv with confirmed impacts, and other regions) underscores this capability. RF also demonstrates capability for drone medical evacuation ("drones evacuating 'wounded'") though the context needs verification. Overnight, RF used FPV drones in conjunction with heavy artillery against Nikopol district.
• Financial Control Mechanisms for ТОТ (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF's implementation of the "digital ruble" in occupied territories indicates a new capability to exert financial and economic control.
• Counter-Battery and Counter-Armor Capabilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF continues to demonstrate effective counter-battery and counter-armor capabilities through artillery and drone strikes, including targeting moving vehicles and Western-supplied equipment. MLRS (Smerch) are being actively used. Confirmed destruction of UAF MaxxPro IFV and now capture of a UAF M113 APC. RF claims destruction of UAF armored personnel carriers (3x APCs) near Kleban-Byk reservoir. Overnight, RF used heavy artillery in Nikopol district.
• Logistic Resilience (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF is diversifying and strengthening long-range logistical capabilities, such as the railway section transfer from Iran. Domestic airspace restrictions previously highlighted either security measures or a response to internal air threats, potentially impacting logistics. NEW: Rosaviatsiya lifting restrictions at Pskov, Kaluga, and Zhukovsky indicates some normalization or reduced perceived threat.
• Tactical C2 and ISR (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF command posts are actively engaged in combat operations, utilizing drone footage and coordinating ground movements, indicating effective tactical C2 and integrated ISR. The detailed combat experience recounted by a fighter from the 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade 'Sv. George' points to coordinated reconnaissance and storming tactics. The coordinated multiple UAV and cruise missile attacks on diverse regions, now including direct targeting of Kyiv with confirmed impacts, and the confirmed widespread cruise missile launches, indicate effective C2. RF (Astafyev) reports indicate operational command and control during the alleged engagement near Kleban-Byk reservoir. NEW: RF claims of advances in Kharkiv Oblast (Khatnye sector most successful) suggest continued C2 over ground forces there. Claims of repelling UAF counterattacks in Sumy also suggest active C2. The coordinated heavy artillery and FPV drone attacks in Nikopol indicate effective tactical C2.
• Hybrid Warfare Swarm Tactics (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The reported "swarms of drones" over Schleswig-Holstein, Germany, and drone activity near Denmark, Lithuania, Norway, and the Netherlands, indicates an advanced capability in hybrid warfare.
• Motorcycle Assaults (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF is utilizing motorcycle-mounted assault groups for rapid deployment, though these are vulnerable to UAF targeting.
• Counter-USV Capabilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF has demonstrated the ability to capture and analyze advanced UAF unmanned surface vessels and use Lancet drones for naval strikes, indicating developing counter-USV capabilities. Confirmed destruction of a UAF USV by Lancet.
• Soft Power Initiatives (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF is deploying soft power initiatives, such as aid to Central Asian countries, to strengthen geopolitical influence. RF also uses cultural events (e.g., rapper Xzibit concerts) for soft power, though this is a low military concern.
• Adjusted Mobilization Capability (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF is adjusting personnel intake criteria by proposing changes to the mobilization disease list. Unverified intelligence suggests potential mobilization in December. RF is also using databases to revoke driving licenses.
• NATO Reinforcement Awareness: RF is aware of NATO force posture adjustments in the Baltic region.

Intentions:

• Intention for Geopolitical Reshaping (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF continues its long-term strategy to build a multi-polar world order, challenge Western dominance, and strengthen alliances with non-Western powers, as evidenced by diplomatic engagements and military cooperation, including Lavrov's UNGA address. RF is also using statements about Trump/Putin dialogue opening possibilities for Crimea to project international legitimacy. NEW: Aksyonov's interview confirms RF's intention to frame itself as a peacemaker while blaming Ukraine and the West for the conflict, and to sow division within Ukraine.
• Intention to Degrade UAF Capabilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF's sustained ground offensives and continuous aerial strikes aim to degrade UAF's combat effectiveness, logistical capacity, and civilian resilience, specifically targeting drone infrastructure, artillery, and armored assets. The recent widespread aerial campaign, including "Kinzhal," ballistic missile threats, confirmed cruise missile launches from strategic bombers (now targeting multiple critical civilian centers including Kyiv, Irpiin, Obukhiv, Vasylkiv, Bila Tserkva, Ladizhyn, Nemyriv, Starokostiantyniv, Derazhnia, Bershad, Tulchyn, Talne), confirmed Kalibr missile launches, and direct UAV attacks on Kyiv (confirmed impacts), underscores this intent. Claims of destroying UAF personnel and equipment near Kleban-Byk reservoir, and advances in Kharkiv Oblast (especially Khatnye sector), reinforce this intention. The TASS report on UAF drone supply issues near Volchansk indicates an intent to exploit perceived UAF weaknesses or internal divisions. Overnight attacks on Nikopol district with heavy artillery and FPV drones demonstrate intent to degrade UAF in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
• Intention to Isolate and Encircle (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF aims to tactically isolate and destroy UAF forces on key axes, aiming for localized operational breakthroughs, as evidenced by stated goals in storming operations and reported casualty tolerance. Claims of UAF units blocked in Synelnykivskyi forest indicate this intention.
• Intention to Open New Fronts (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The claimed capture of Yunakovka and continued advances in Volchansk and other sectors (now confirmed in Tykhyi and Vovchanski Khutory, Kharkiv Oblast) indicate an intention to open new major ground offensive axes and expand territorial control.
• Intention for Information Dominance (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF is committed to dominating the information environment through rapid dissemination of false-flag narratives, amplification of anti-Western sentiment, and efforts to discredit UAF and Western governments. This includes claims regarding Moldova/Transnistria and UAF recruitment/payment issues, and now direct calls from RF Deputy Vodolatsky for Ukrainians to overthrow their government. RF's renewed focus on the "NATO Cyber Headquarters against Russia" narrative indicates an intent to frame its hybrid actions as defensive. RF is also warning its own population about cyber fraud, a likely domestic IO effort. The propagation of images of "liquidated AFU servicemen" with US flag chevrons and reporting on Polina Agureeva's SBU wanted status are explicit attempts to shape public perception and discredit Ukraine. Vladimir Saldo's extreme rhetoric further reinforces anti-Ukrainian rhetoric. TASS reporting on Moldovan President Sandu serves to undermine pro-Western leadership. NEW: TASS claims about UAF destroying homes in Tetkino, Kursk, and claims of rescuing UAF soldiers under friendly fire are part of this effort. Aksyonov's statements in TASS serve to reinforce RF's justification for the war and undermine Ukrainian leadership. The TASS report on UAF drone supply issues due to Poroshenko's interests clearly aims to create internal divisions within Ukraine. NEW: Aksyonov's statement on the impossibility of democratic elections in Ukraine is a direct political IO to delegitimize the Ukrainian government. The TASS video on Mariinka's destruction is an IO effort to highlight UAF responsibility for devastation.
• Intention to Control Occupied Territories and Resources (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF aims to further integrate and legitimize its control over seized Ukrainian land and resources through economic (digital ruble) and energy leverage.
• Intention to Consolidate Russian National Identity (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF leadership is focused on consolidating a specific, traditional narrative of Russian identity, influencing social and political policies.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations (Confidence: HIGH)

• Expanded Air Campaign Effort (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF has significantly expanded and intensified its primary air campaign effort across multiple Ukrainian oblasts (Odesa, Sumy, Kyiv, Kropyvnytskyi, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia, Chernihiv), now including confirmed deployment of MiG-31K with Kinzhal missiles, multiple ballistic missile launches from Crimea, an increased number of strategic bombers (7 Tu-95MS) with confirmed cruise missile launches on new, widespread vectors (targeting multiple central Ukrainian cities, including direct hits on Kyiv and areas around Kyiv, Cherkasy, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Pervomaisk, Bila Tserkva, Ladizhyn, Nemyriv, Starokostiantyniv, Derazhnia, Bershad, Tulchyn, Talne), and newly confirmed Kalibr missile launches from the Black Sea, in addition to UAVs (including a massive concentration in Kyiv Oblast, with direct targeting of Kyiv City and confirmed impacts), MLRS (Smerch), and high-speed missiles (now including one from Mykolaiv to Kirovohrad and a new one to Balta, Odeskyi Oblast). This demonstrates an adaptive and persistent strategy aimed at systemic degradation. New UAV groups in northern Sumy/Chernihiv Oblasts indicate adapting attack vectors, with 23 UAVs now moving from Chernihiv towards Kyiv, others targeting Poltava, a new threat to Kharkiv city, Starokostiantyniv, and new groups in northern Vinnytsia heading west, plus new UAVs near Vyshhorod/Irpin/Bucha, Boyarka, Vasylkiv. The renewed nationwide air alert confirms the immediate and high-level nature of this adapted offensive. КАБ launches now confirmed against Sumy Oblast, showing adaptation of guided bomb usage. Ballistic missile threat from Kursk Governorate to Sumy/Lebedyn is also a new vector. The dynamic nature of the ongoing missile/drone attack, with some cruise missiles being intercepted and drone activity persisting, indicates adaptive UAF air defense responses and RF adapting follow-on waves. All missile threats are now assessed as receding/intercepted, while drone threats persist, particularly towards Vasylkiv and in Kyiv/Chernihiv Oblasts. RF also adapted to use heavy artillery and FPV drones in coordinated attacks on Nikopol.
• New Ground Offensive Axis (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF continues to adapt its ground operations, with claimed territorial gains in Dnipropetropavsk and Donetsk, and renewed assault operations in the Huliaipilske direction. The Yunakovka bridgehead remains a potential new axis. RF units, like the 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade, continue complex reconnaissance and storming missions despite high casualties, indicating a persistent, albeit costly, ground offensive strategy. Threat from aviation strike assets is now present for Pokrovsk and Kupiansk. Capture of UAF M113 APC in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast indicates successful localized ground engagements. RF claims of successfully eliminating UAF personnel and equipment near Kleban-Byk reservoir also indicate adaptive localized ground tactics. NEW: RF claims advances in Kharkiv Oblast (Tykhyi, Vovchanski Khutory, Vovchansk, Khatnye sector) and repelling UAF counterattacks in Sumy Oblast show adaptive ground operations. The claim of UAF units blocked in Synelnykivskyi forest points to adaptive encirclement tactics.
• Enhanced Counter-Naval Drone Tactics (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF is actively employing small arms, Lancet loitering munitions (confirmed successful), and improved ISR to counter UAF unmanned surface vessels.
• Adaptive IO for Casualties and Justification (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF quickly adapts its information operations to leverage high-profile events, exploit perceived adversary divisions, and justify its actions through various propaganda narratives (e.g., Lavrov's UNGA speech, Moldova/Transnistria claims, UAF payment narratives). The new focus on NATO's "Cyber Headquarters" suggests an adaptive framing of its own hybrid actions. Direct political messaging from RF Deputy Vodolatsky calling for regime change in Ukraine represents an escalation in IO tactics. The immediate amplification of images of "liquidated AFU servicemen" with US flag chevrons and reporting on individuals on SBU wanted lists are adaptive IO tactics. Vladimir Saldo's extreme rhetoric comparing "anti-Russian polemics" to "Nazi antisemitism" demonstrates an adaptive escalation of dehumanizing rhetoric. TASS reporting on Moldovan President Sandu is an adaptive attempt to destabilize pro-Western governments. NEW: TASS reports about UAF destroying homes in Tetkino, Kursk, and claims of rescuing UAF soldiers attempting to surrender, are new adaptive IO efforts. Aksyonov's TASS interview exemplifies adaptive messaging to justify the war and destabilize Ukraine. The TASS report on UAF drone supply issues due to Poroshenko's interests is an adaptive attempt to sow internal discord. Aksyonov's statement on the impossibility of democratic elections in Ukraine is an adaptive political IO. The TASS Mariinka video is an adaptive IO piece.
• Escalated Hybrid Operations Against NATO (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The confirmed drone activity over Danish Ministry of Defense facilities, disruption of Vilnius International Airport, and drone swarms in Germany, Norway, and the Netherlands indicate a significant escalation in RF's hybrid operations targeting NATO member states. RF is also framing NATO's actions in Moldova as "control of logistics," indicating an adaptive justification for potential future escalations there. Poland scrambling fighters is a direct consequence of this.
• Direct Recruitment for UAV Units (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF is directly recruiting for specialized UAV battalions and relying on fundraising for equipment and basic soldier sustenance, indicating adaptive personnel sourcing and procurement strategies.
• Financial Control in ТОТ (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The introduction of "digital rubles" in occupied territories is a new adaptation in economic warfare and control.
• IO Adaptations to Internal Dissent (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF's C2 is attempting to manage growing internal dissent, adapting its IO to address public discontent and troop morale issues. Unverified intelligence suggests potential mobilization in December. RF is also using databases to track and potentially restrict civilian activities (driving licenses). Internal corruption cases, like the Krasnoyarsk bribery investigation, highlight ongoing internal governance challenges. RF Interior Ministry warning about bank app malware could be a public awareness campaign or an attempt to deflect from state-sponsored cyber threats.
• Adaptive Counter-Battery and Counter-Armor Tactics (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF continues to adapt its ISR and precision fires to neutralize UAF artillery and armored assets, now including active MLRS (Smerch) strikes. Confirmed destruction of MaxxPro IFV by RF and now capture of UAF M113 APC. RF claims of destroying UAF APCs near Kleban-Byk reservoir. Overnight heavy artillery and FPV drone attacks in Nikopol district demonstrate adaptive combined arms tactics.
• Strategic Logistics Diversification (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The transfer of a railway section from Iran to RF signifies a strategic logistical development for long-term supply.
• Lavrov's UNGA Diplomatic Offensive (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Lavrov's diplomatic offensive at the UNGA, including specific narratives on Ukraine, NATO, and global order, represents a coordinated and adaptive effort to shape international discourse.
• Domestic Air Defense Posture: RF is adapting its domestic air defense posture with "Plan Kovyor" activations and airspace restrictions in Kaluga, Penza, Samara, Pskov, Yaroslavl, and Zhukovsky, likely in response to increased UAF deep strike capabilities or perceived threats. (Penza restrictions have now been lifted). NEW: Rosaviatsiya lifting restrictions at Pskov, Kaluga, and Zhukovsky suggests an adaptation to reduced perceived threat or operational tempo.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• RF Fuel Shortages: A severe and growing fuel crisis is impacting Lipetsk and Sevastopol Oblasts, indicating internal logistical challenges that could affect military resupply. The declaration of "air danger" in Lipetsk could further disrupt logistics. (Confidence: HIGH)
• RF Logistics Infrastructure Targeted: UAF continues to target RF oil infrastructure and railway logistics (e.g., Vinnytsia traction substation), causing disruptions. (Confidence: HIGH)
• RF Military Procurement Issues: Ongoing reliance on public fundraising for equipment and soldier sustenance (food, mobile air defense, marine infantry) highlights deficiencies in official military supply chains. (Confidence: HIGH)
• RF Internal Supply Chain Disruptions: Transportation disruptions (train accidents, airport restrictions, now in Kaluga, Penza, Samara, Pskov, Yaroslavl, Zhukovsky, though Penza restrictions lifted) and crop losses indicate broader vulnerabilities to internal logistics. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: Rosaviatsiya lifting restrictions at Pskov, Kaluga, and Zhukovsky may ease some internal logistical constraints for air travel.
• Personnel Support Challenges: High numbers of fighters requiring psychological support, claims of injured soldiers being sent to the front, and allegations of soldier suicides indicate significant and growing personnel sustainment issues for RF. The combat account from the 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade, detailing high casualties and injured personnel needing treatment, underscores this. Unverified intelligence suggests potential mobilization in December to address personnel shortfalls. RF is also consolidating medical and МВД databases which could affect personnel for both military and civilian roles. RF sources show "drones evacuating 'wounded'" which could be an attempt to highlight advanced medical evacuation capabilities, potentially to improve morale or propaganda, while also reflecting ongoing casualties. NEW: TASS reporting on RF rescuing UAF soldiers under friendly fire, while propaganda, suggests ongoing engagements that necessitate such "rescue" operations, indirectly supporting ongoing personnel needs/casualty rates. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Naval Operational Issues: UAF claims of collisions damaging Black Sea Fleet vessels, if verified, indicate internal operational issues. (Confidence: MEDIUM) UPDATE: Active Kalibr missile launches from the Black Sea, including one targeting Zaporizhzhia and two others, demonstrate RF naval strike capabilities are still robust despite potential issues. (No new Kalibr updates, indicating receding threat).
• ZNPP Power Status: Conflicting reports on ZNPP's power status highlight ongoing logistical and safety concerns. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
• Strategic Logistics Enhancement: The transfer of a railway section from Iran to RF signifies a long-term strategic logistical enhancement. (Confidence: HIGH)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• RF Centralized C2 and Adaptive Targeting (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF maintains a centralized C2 structure capable of coordinating multi-axis ground offensives and large-scale, adaptive aerial campaigns, as evidenced by the widespread aerial attacks (including Kinzhal, ballistic, confirmed cruise missile, confirmed Kalibr missile launches, plus massive UAV deployments and direct targeting of Kyiv with confirmed impacts), coordinated ground movements, and the activation of domestic airspace control ("Plan Kovyor" in Penza, "air danger" in Lipetsk, and airspace restrictions in Kaluga, Penza, Samara, Pskov, Yaroslavl, Zhukovsky). The detailed account from the 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade confirms operational command and control during reconnaissance and storming missions. RF claims of coordinated ground engagement near Kleban-Byk reservoir also point to effective tactical C2. The multi-vector and coordinated nature of the current missile/UAV attacks confirms sophisticated C2. NEW: RF claims of advances in Kharkiv Oblast (Khatnye sector most successful) and repelling UAF counterattacks in Sumy Oblast further demonstrate active C2 over ground forces. The claims of UAF units blocked in Synelnykivskyi forest also suggest RF C2 of encirclement tactics. Coordinated heavy artillery and FPV drone attacks in Nikopol indicate effective tactical C2. Rosaviatsiya lifting airport restrictions suggests C2 decision-making regarding internal airspace.
• RF IO Control and Narrative Management (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF C2 effectively manages the information environment, swiftly deploying narratives to counter threats and exploit opportunities, including during Lavrov's UNGA address and in spreading claims about Moldova and UAF internal financial issues. The immediate framing of "NATO Cyber Headquarters against Russia" demonstrates proactive narrative control. The MVD warning on cyber fraud is likely a coordinated effort to control information or public perception domestically. The direct political appeal from RF Deputy Vodolatsky for Ukrainians to overthrow their government demonstrates a coordinated C2 effort to influence adversary populations. The coordinated dissemination of "liquidated AFU servicemen" images, the Polina Agureeva story, Vladimir Saldo's extreme rhetoric, and TASS reporting on Moldovan President Sandu show central control over propaganda. NEW: TASS reports about UAF destroying homes in Tetkino, Kursk, and claims of rescuing UAF soldiers under friendly fire are also centrally controlled IO. Aksyonov's TASS interview reinforces this centralized narrative control to justify the war and discredit Ukraine. The TASS report on UAF drone supply issues due to Poroshenko's interests attempts to manipulate perceptions of UAF leadership. Aksyonov's statement on the impossibility of democratic elections in Ukraine is a centrally controlled political IO. The TASS Mariinka video is a coordinated IO piece.
• UAF C2 Resilience Under Pressure (HIGH CONFIDENCE): UAF General Staff provides regular operational updates, and high repel rates for RF assaults, along with effective drone and SOF operations, demonstrate resilient tactical and operational C2 despite intense pressure. Active air defense responses and public alerts show effective real-time C2 under aerial threats, including rapid declaration of nationwide air alerts for Kinzhal, ballistic missile, cruise missile, and now Kalibr missile threats. Active PPO in Kyiv Oblast and Kyiv City against UAVs, with rapid public alerts from KMVA and Air Force, further demonstrates responsive C2. CRITICAL NEW: UAF Air Force (PS ZSU) is providing real-time updates on missile and UAV movements across numerous regions, demonstrating robust C2 and situational awareness for the current multi-vector missile and UAV attack. Confirmation of multiple missile interceptions (e.g., Vasylkiv, Starokonstantyniv, Bila Tserkva, and the cruise missile over western Kyiv Oblast) further highlights UAF C2 effectiveness. UAF Naval Forces destroying 15 Shaheds also demonstrates coordinated C2 for air defense. UAF PPO forces shooting down drones over Kirovohrad Oblast, and Khmelnytskyi OVA reporting no casualties/damage, indicate effective regional C2.
• RF Internal Dissent as C2 Challenge (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Growing public criticism of RF military leadership, mobilization, and social issues, along with significant public discontent at Putin's reception, highlights an internal C2 challenge in maintaining public support and troop morale. The unverified December mobilization intelligence would exacerbate this. RF's attempts to control internal information (e.g., through newspaper distribution or by revoking driving licenses) reflect this underlying concern about public sentiment. The Krasnoyarsk bribery case also points to internal governance and corruption issues potentially impacting C2 integrity. NEW: The case against ex-military court judge Albert Trishkin for causing moderate harm due to hooliganism, while not directly military, adds to a narrative of internal legal and social issues that can indirectly impact military morale and public trust in institutions.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (Confidence: HIGH)

• Active Defense and Counter-Offensive Operations: UAF maintains active defense across multiple axes, repelling most RF assaults and making localized advances (Pankivka, Zarichne, Dobropillya direction). Specialized brigades (3rd Assault, 95th AAB, 30th Mechanized, 33rd Mechanized, 225th Separate Assault) demonstrate high readiness in ground and drone operations.
• Air Defense Effectiveness: UAF air defense remains highly engaged and effective against mass drone, ballistic, and missile attacks, with high interception rates and successful regional operations. Nationwide air alerts are promptly declared, indicating responsive air defense C2. PPO is actively working in Kyiv Oblast and Kyiv City against multiple UAVs, demonstrating continued effectiveness. KMVA confirms PPO activity in Kyiv. Zelenskyy's statements suggest ongoing strengthening of air defense capabilities. CRITICAL UPDATED: Immediate and widespread alerts for Kalibr launches and rocket danger to the south demonstrate UAF AD systems are tracking these new threats. UAF Air Force (PS ZSU) is providing real-time updates on missile and UAV movements across numerous regions, demonstrating robust C2 and situational awareness for the current multi-vector missile and UAV attack. Confirmed missile interceptions by UAF AD assets (e.g., Vasylkiv, Starokonstantyniv, Bila Tserkva, and the cruise missile over western Kyiv Oblast) further underscore readiness. UAF Naval Forces claim 15 Shaheds destroyed. Poland scrambling its fighter jets is a positive indicator of international support for air defense. UAF PPO forces shot down several drones over Kirovohrad Oblast, and Khmelnytskyi OVA reports no casualties or damage from recent strikes.
• Special Operations Capabilities: UAF SOF elements continue to demonstrate high readiness and tactical effectiveness in ground operations, including capturing enemy personnel.
• Tactical Drone Utilization: UAF continues to effectively utilize drones for reconnaissance and strike capabilities, with specialized units (Black Raven, 2nd Mountain Assault Battalion, 414th Brigade, 65th OMBr Ronins) achieving significant tactical successes. Naval drones demonstrate advanced capabilities, though one was recently destroyed by an RF Lancet. UAF Naval Forces claim 15 Shaheds destroyed.
• Long-Range Precision Strike Capabilities: UAF demonstrates capability for deep strikes into RF territory (oil pumping station, Belgorod) and against critical infrastructure in occupied territories (Zaporizhzhia power outage).
• Recruitment Efforts: Active recruitment by various brigades and regional administrations indicates efforts to strengthen force posture. RF claims of UAF offering 2 million Hryvnia payments and two-year contracts to retain contract soldiers, if true, indicate proactive measures to address personnel retention.
• Strong Presidential Rhetoric: Zelenskyy's strong statements on retaliation for blackouts and engagement with international partners demonstrate clear political resolve and strategic intent.
• Rehabilitation Services: Robust rehabilitation services in Kharkiv demonstrate a commitment to personnel care, positively impacting long-term readiness and morale.
• International Legal Efforts: UAF actively disseminates reports on Russian war crimes, using international legal frameworks to counter RF aggression.
• Moldova Alleged Cooperation: RF claims of Moldova involving SBU for a "forceful scenario" in Transnistria, if true, would indicate a strengthening of regional security cooperation against RF influence. (Confidence: LOW for truth, HIGH for RF claim)
• International Support (Poland): Poland scrambling its fighter jets in response to the combined attack on Ukraine demonstrates active, responsive international support for UAF air defense.
• NEW - Monitoring Moldovan Elections: UAF sources are actively monitoring the pivotal elections in Moldova, indicating an awareness of regional geopolitical implications and readiness to adapt to outcomes.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• Successes:
  • High Repel Rate: Successfully repelled a high percentage of RF assaults across multiple axes. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Localized Advances: Confirmed liberation of Pankivka, Zarichne, and advances on the Dobropillya direction. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Effective Air Defense: High success rate against RF UAV attacks, and successful air defense operations in Dnipropetropavsk. PPO active nationwide with prompt alerts for Kinzhal, ballistic, cruise, and now Kalibr missile threats, and currently active in Kyiv Oblast and Kyiv City against UAVs, with confirmed PPO activity. CRITICAL UPDATED: UAF Air Force providing real-time tracking of new missile and UAV groups, and confirmation of multiple missile interceptions (e.g., Vasylkiv, Starokonstantyniv, Bila Tserkva, and the cruise missile over western Kyiv Oblast). UAF Naval Forces destroyed 15 Shaheds. UAF PPO forces shot down several drones over Kirovohrad Oblast. Khmelnytskyi OVA reports no casualties or damage from recent strikes. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Capture of RF Personnel: Successful capture of enemy soldiers during ground engagements. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Deep Strikes into RF Territory & ТОТ: Successful UAV attacks on RF oil infrastructure, rocket strikes on Belgorod, and power outage in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Effective Tactical Drone Strikes: Significant successes in FPV drone strikes on Pokrovsk direction and other areas, leading to high RF casualties and equipment destruction. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Counter-Recruitment Success: Shutdown of a Russian recruitment channel in Kenya. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • UAF SOF and Assault Units Successes: Effective engagements by 3rd Assault, 95th AAB, 30th Mechanized, 33rd Mechanized, 225th Separate Assault Brigades. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Setbacks:
  • RF Advances on Multiple Axes: RF claims unverified advances in Volchansk and Kupiansk, along with claimed liberation of Derilovo, Mayske, Stepove, and Dorozhne (Dobropillya area). NEW: RF claims advances in Tykhyi, Vovchanski Khutory, and Vovchansk (Kharkiv Oblast), and the Khatnye sector was most successful. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
  • Loss of Yunakovka: RF's claimed capture of Yunakovka, Sumy Oblast, if confirmed, represents a significant territorial loss. (Confidence: HIGH for claim, verification pending)
  • Civilian Infrastructure Damage & Casualties (CRITICAL): Continued RF strikes cause significant damage to civilian infrastructure and casualties (Vinnytsia, Sumy, Chernihiv, Konstantinovka, Zaporizhzhia, Khmelnytskyi). Explosions and fire reported in Zaporizhzhia, with images and video confirming damage to a gas station and residential buildings, including a multi-story building fire. Casualties in Zaporizhzhia have risen to three and now 8 injured. Confirmed Kinzhal strikes in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. Confirmed damage to residential buildings in Solomianskyi and Holosiivskyi districts, Kyiv, along with other damage in the capital, indicates direct and severe impact on civilian areas, with 3 injured, now 5 injured. CRITICAL UPDATED: Renewed nationwide air alert and confirmed cruise missile launches from strategic bombers (now directly hitting Kyiv and other central Ukrainian cities on multiple vectors, with damage confirmed in five districts of Kyiv, and casualties in Kyiv Oblast), along with massive UAV attacks (Kyiv City and surrounding areas, Kharkiv, Odesa, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Sumy, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy), and now Kalibr missile launches and ballistic missile threats to Sumy/Lebedyn, and rocket danger to the south indicate high potential for further civilian damage and casualties. RF sources claim impacts in Vishneve (Kyiv Oblast). Photos confirm significant urban damage in Bila Tserkva and other districts of Kyiv Oblast with casualties. RF artillery and FPV drone attacks overnight on Nikopol district have also caused damage, with assessment ongoing. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Potential Encirclement: RF claims of encircling UAF units in Synelnykivskyi forest, if verified, would be a severe tactical setback. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
  • UAF Withdrawal from Zarichne (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) Claim: If verified, would be a localized tactical setback. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
  • RF Air Defense Successes: RF's successful interception of numerous UAF UAVs over Russian territory (41 reported down overnight, 4 over Tula). RF ground units also claim drone shootdowns. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • RF Artillery/MLRS/Ballistic/Cruise/Kalibr Strikes on UAF Assets/Cities: Claimed destruction of UAF howitzers, tanks, and vehicles by RF artillery/drones. Smerch MLRS strikes on Marhanets/Zaporizhzhia. Multiple ballistic missile launches from Crimea. Confirmed cruise missile launches from Tu-95 strategic bombers pose an immediate and significant threat, now targeting multiple central Ukrainian cities, with confirmed impacts in Kyiv. UPDATE: Kalibr missile launches from the Black Sea introduce another potent naval strike threat. RF artillery and FPV drone attacks in Nikopol district. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Hungarian Drone Invasion: Documented invasion of Ukrainian airspace by a Hungarian drone. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Captured/Destroyed Ukrainian USV: Capture of a UAF unmanned surface vessel by RF forces, and confirmed destruction of another by Lancet near Crimea. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • RF Claims UAF 95th AAB Destroyed: If verified, RF claims of destroying the 95th AAB near Krasnoarmiysk would be a major UAF setback. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • RF Eliminates UAF SOF Commander: If verified, this would be a significant tactical setback for UAF SOF. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Severe Damage in Konstantinovka: Extensive damage to multi-story residential buildings in Konstantinovka from Russian strikes. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Loss of American MaxxPro IFV: Video evidence of a severely damaged and burning International MaxxPro IFV indicates a combat loss for UAF. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Loss of American M113 APC: Video evidence from RF sources confirms the capture of a damaged US-supplied M113 Armored Personnel Carrier by RF forces in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. This represents a combat loss for UAF. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • High Casualties in RF Units: Accounts from RF units like the 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade detailing significant personnel losses (12 down to 3) suggest effective UAF resistance and high combat intensity. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • RF Claims Elimination of Azov/Lyut: If verified, RF claims of destroying 10 personnel from Azov and Lyut brigades near Kleban-Byk reservoir would be a significant tactical setback. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
  • NEW - RF Claims UAF Friendly Fire: RF claims of UAF soldiers being fired upon by their own forces for attempting to surrender, if true, would be a serious setback related to morale/discipline. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
  • NEW - RF Claims UAF Drone Supply Issues: RF claims a UAF brigade near Volchansk is not receiving drones due to its commander promoting Poroshenko's interests. If true, this could indicate internal political interference affecting UAF combat capabilities. (Confidence: LOW, highly likely IO)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (Confidence: HIGH)

• Air Defense Assets: Continued high tempo of RF aerial attacks (UAVs, MLRS, strategic bomber-launched cruise missiles (now directly targeting Kyiv and multiple central Ukrainian cities), Kalibr missiles, high-speed targets (Mykolaiv/Kirovohrad, Balta), Kinzhal from MiG-31K, ballistic missiles from Crimea and Kursk Governorate) necessitates sustained supply of air defense munitions and platforms, particularly for drone and missile defense. The confirmed cruise missile launches from Tu-95s, combined with the MiG-31K, ballistic missile launches, Kalibr launches, and massive UAV deployments (multiple UAVs directly targeting Kyiv with confirmed impacts, and other regions, including Sumy, Vinnytsia, Chernihiv Oblasts), highlights an immediate, critical need. Mobile C-UAS systems are continuously required, especially for the ongoing UAV threats to Kyiv, Bila Tserkva, Obukhiv/Ukrainka, Poltava, Kharkiv, Odesa, Kirovohrad, Starokostiantyniv, Sumy, Boyarka, Vasylkiv, Irpiin, Bucha, Vyshhorod, Makariv, Vishneve.
• Long-Range Precision Strike Capabilities: UAF relies heavily on Western-supplied and indigenous long-range weapons for deep strikes. Continued support and resupply are critical for maintaining offensive pressure and reciprocal deterrence.
• Munitions and Equipment: Sustained combat operations across multiple axes, including offensive and defensive engagements, require continuous supply of ammunition, artillery shells, FPV drones, and combat vehicles. Losses of equipment like the MaxxPro IFV and M113 APC necessitate replacement. The intensity of ground engagements, as highlighted by RF accounts of high casualties and new claims of UAF personnel/equipment destruction, underscores this need. RF overnight use of heavy artillery and FPV drones in Nikopol indicates a persistent requirement for such munitions.
• Personnel and Training: Ongoing recruitment efforts, potentially including increased financial incentives as claimed by RF, indicate a need for continuous personnel intake and specialized training for various roles, particularly in UAS and air defense.
• Medical and Rehabilitation Support: The extensive rehabilitation services in Kharkiv underscore the ongoing human cost of the conflict and the need for sustained medical and psychological support for military and civilian casualties. The graphic details of injured RF soldiers also illustrate the constant demand for field medical support. Casualties in Kyiv (5 injured) and Zaporizhzhia (8 injured) from the current strikes will add to this burden.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (Confidence: HIGH)

• RF Propaganda Themes:
  • Victimhood, Destabilization of NATO/EU, Demonization of Ukraine/West, Justification for Aggression/Maximalist Demands, Internal Cohesion/Morale Boosting, Hybrid Warfare Narratives, "Big War" Narrative, Non-Military Propaganda, "Wise Politician" Narrative, Gloating over UAF Setbacks, Regional Destabilization (Moldova/Transnistria), UAF Financial/Personnel Crisis, Western Hypocrisy/Internal Disarray, NATO Cyber War, Russian Technological Prowess. RF continues to push these narratives vigorously, leveraging state media, milbloggers, and diplomatic platforms like the UNGA (where Lavrov is claimed to have "laid low" opponents). The destruction of a UAF USV, MaxxPro IFV, and now M113 APC will be amplified. Unverified intelligence suggesting a "December mobilization" could be an IO effort to test public reaction or deter UAF actions. RF is actively promoting claims of Ukrainian actions in Moldova to sow discord and also framing NATO's involvement in Moldova as "control of logistics." RF claims about UAF struggling to pay soldiers or enticing them with large payments due to budget shortfalls will be used to undermine morale. RF will likely leverage the detention of George Galloway in London on terrorism charges as an example of Western hypocrisy or internal political instability, attempting to deflect from its own actions. RF will heavily leverage the narrative of a "NATO Cyber Headquarters against Russia" to justify its own offensive cyber and hybrid operations. RF sources (Colonelcassad) are amplifying news about China's "most powerful flying wind turbine" in a way that suggests Russian interest in advanced technology and possibly a subtle hint at future military applications, potentially to counter Western technological dominance narratives. RF Interior Ministry reports on cyber fraud may also be framed as a general public security issue to bolster public trust in domestic security while potentially deflecting from state-sponsored cyber threats. RF Deputy Viktor Vodolatsky (TASS) explicitly calls for Ukrainians to "rise up against the Nazi regime, electing another president" to "protect its people and negotiate a peaceful settlement." This is a direct, open call for regime change and political subversion, aiming to foster internal dissent and delegitimize the Ukrainian government. RF is also using videos of "drones evacuating 'wounded'" potentially to project competence and care for personnel. RF claims of eliminating Azov/Lyut militants near Kleban-Byk reservoir will be amplified to demonstrate combat successes and demoralize UAF. Images of "liquidated AFU servicemen" with US flag chevrons will be used to reinforce the narrative of UAF fighting for "Western interests." The reporting on Polina Agureeva being on the SBU wanted list will be used to portray SBU as persecuting Russian cultural figures. Vladimir Saldo's statement (TASS) equating "anti-Russian polemics" to "Nazi antisemitism" demonstrates continued use of extreme rhetoric to dehumanize Ukrainians. TASS's reporting on Moldovan President Sandu serves to undermine pro-Western leadership. NEW: TASS amplifying statements from an RF soldier claiming UAF methodically destroyed homes in Tetkino, Kursk, despite no military presence, is a new propaganda piece aimed at portraying UAF as indiscriminate/barbaric. TASS reporting on "Zapad" group soldiers rescuing UAF soldiers attempting to surrender under friendly fire is also designed to portray RF forces as humane and UAF as incompetent/brutal. Statements from Sergey Aksyonov (Crimea) about Putin/Trump dialogue opening new possibilities for Crimea reinforce the narrative of RF legitimacy. NEW: Aksyonov's interview (TASS) claiming Ukrainian residents "hate ruling elites" and Russia's primary interest is peace, is a continuous effort to sow political discord and justify RF actions. The TASS report claiming drone supply issues for a UAF brigade due to Poroshenko's interests is another attempt to generate internal friction. The image of fire/smoke from Операция Z with a watermark "INFO Kelia" is likely a visual propaganda piece to reinforce the idea of Ukrainian suffering/attacks, despite the watermark obscuring the original content. Colonelcassad's photo of a "babka ezhka" (Baba Yaga) for "blindaži" (bunkers) is likely a morale-boosting piece showcasing innovative, though likely crude, RF weapon development/use, potentially an adapted drone payload. NEW: Aksyonov via TASS claims democratic elections are impossible in Ukraine under the current regime, aiming to delegitimize Ukrainian political processes. NEW: TASS video report on Mariinka destruction, featuring a sole resident, will be used to emphasize devastation and blame UAF.
  • New - Heroism and Sacrifice: RF will amplify stories of combat heroism, such as the account from 'Yakut' of the 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade, and potentially the "rescue" of UAF soldiers, to bolster internal morale and portray Russian forces as resilient and dedicated despite high casualties. This narrative will focus on their combat experience and bravery.
• UAF Counter-Propaganda/Information Operations (IO) Themes:
  • Exposing RF Atrocities/War Crimes, Highlighting RF Losses/Weaknesses, Mocking RF Disinformation, Diplomatic Pressure/International Support, Internal Resilience/Morale Boosting, Exposing RF Hybrid Operations, Zelenskyy on Retaliation. UAF actively engages in counter-propaganda, utilizing official channels and social media to expose RF actions, boost morale, and maintain international support. Official reporting of damage and casualties in Zaporizhzhia (e.g., #RUSSIAISATERRORISTSTATE) directly counters RF narratives. Counter-narratives will focus on the confirmed impact in Kyiv (including residential buildings in Solomianskyi and Holosiivskyi districts, and consequences in 4 districts of Kyiv Oblast), civilian casualties (now 5 injured in Kyiv, 8 in Zaporizhzhia) from the widespread missile and UAV attacks, and the illegitimacy of RF's calls for regime change. UAF will also counter RF claims of eliminating Azov/Lyut militants, the narrative of UAF fighting for "Western interests," and RF claims of UAF destroying civilian homes in Kursk. UAF will highlight international support, such as Poland scrambling its fighter jets, and UAF Air Defense successes (e.g., 15 Shaheds destroyed by Naval Forces, multiple missile interceptions). UAF General Staff (Оперативний ЗСУ) images on RF losses ("Кацапів меншає" - Fewer Kacaps) are direct morale boosters and counter-narratives to RF claims of success. UAF will also highlight RF's internal issues like the former judge's case, to counter narratives of a stable RF. UAF will emphasize the democratic nature and importance of the Moldovan elections, contrasting with RF claims about Ukraine's democratic impossibility.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• Ukrainian Public Sentiment (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Resilience and resolve remain strong despite ongoing attacks. Anticipation of attacks leads to preparedness but also sustained psychological strain. Concerns about future international support persist, alongside a strong sense of solidarity with NATO. The current widespread aerial attack, including the Kinzhal threat to Khmelnytskyi, ballistic missile launches, confirmed cruise missile launches from strategic bombers (now directly targeting Kyiv and other major cities), confirmed Kalibr missile launches, and direct UAV attacks on Kyiv (confirmed impacts in Solomianskyi and Holosiivskyi districts, and consequences in 4 districts of Kyiv Oblast), will severely test this resilience. The renewed nationwide air alert brings renewed anxiety. Casualties in Zaporizhzhia (8 injured), Khmelnytskyi, and now direct hits in Kyiv (5 injured) will further impact local morale. The massive UAV threat to Kyiv (Bila Tserkva, Obukhiv/Ukrainka, Boryspil, Vasylkiv/Boyarka, Vyshhorod/Irpiin/Bucha, Makariv, Vishneve) and Kharkiv will cause widespread fear and disruption. RF calls for regime change will be seen as further evidence of RF aggression and an attempt to undermine national unity. Poland's decision to scramble fighter jets will provide a temporary morale boost and a sense of international protection. UAF Air Defense successes will also boost morale. The ongoing explosions in Kyiv will fuel public anxiety. The significant increase in casualties in Kyiv (5 injured) and Zaporizhzhia (8 injured) will intensify public distress.
• Russian Public Sentiment (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): Growing discontent is evident regarding fuel shortages, alleged mistreatment of military personnel, and frustration with official narratives. Propaganda continues to shape perceptions, but social tensions and internal dissent are increasingly visible. Unverified intelligence of "December mobilization" could trigger significant public anxiety. "Plan Kovyor" in Penza Oblast, the "air danger" regime in Lipetsk Oblast, and airport restrictions previously in Kaluga, Penza, Samara, Pskov, Yaroslavl, and Zhukovsky could generate fear or questions about internal security. RF attempts to control information (e.g., through newspaper distribution or driving license revocations) reflect this underlying concern about public sentiment. The new criminal case concerning bribes against the ex-mayor of Krasnoyarsk could fuel public cynicism about corruption. The MVD warning about cyber fraud might also be an attempt to manage public anxiety around security. Vladimir Saldo's statements will reinforce nationalist sentiment among loyalists. Aksyonov's statements about Trump/Putin dialogue may also be aimed at bolstering confidence in leadership. Aksyonov's TASS interview, particularly his claim that Ukrainian residents "hate ruling elites," aims to shape the perception of discontent within Ukraine, which may resonate with certain segments of the Russian population. "Доброе утро, десантное братство" (Good morning, Airborne Brotherhood) from Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is a clear morale-boosting message for RF forces. The case against former judge Trishkin, while small scale, adds to a narrative of internal issues that could affect public trust in institutions. RF MoD claims of shooting down 41 Ukrainian UAVs will be used to bolster public confidence in RF air defense capabilities.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments (Confidence: HIGH)

• Continued Western Support (Conditional/Evolving): US military aid remains critical but uncertain depending on political outcomes. European support faces challenges (Hungary's veto). NATO is reinforcing its eastern flank (Sweden/Finland brigade, US Abrams to Estonia, Baltic Sea surveillance). Marco Rubio's statement regarding the Iran nuclear program deal could indicate US diplomatic priorities shifting towards non-European issues. NEW: Poland has actively demonstrated support by scrambling its fighter jets in response to the current combined attack, indicating a responsive NATO posture.
• RF Diplomatic Offensive: Lavrov's UNGA presence is a platform for RF's geopolitical agenda and narrative shaping, despite low attendance. RF is strengthening non-Western alliances (Iran, India) and exploiting other global crises. RF claims of Lavrov's success at the UNGA reflect internal narrative shaping. Cultural events (Xzibit concerts) may be used for soft power projection. RF Deputy Viktor Vodolatsky's direct political calls for Ukrainians to replace their president could be a prelude to further diplomatic or IO efforts to delegitimize the current Ukrainian government on the international stage. Vladimir Saldo's statements (TASS) are also likely intended for an international audience to push RF narratives. TASS's reporting on Moldovan President Sandu serves to undermine pro-Western leadership and international trust. NEW: Sergey Aksyonov's (Crimea) statements about Putin/Trump dialogue opening new possibilities for Crimea are part of this diplomatic offensive to legitimize RF's claims. His TASS interview reinforces this diplomatic push to justify RF actions internationally. TASS is also reporting on Moldovan parliamentary elections, an event RF will likely monitor closely for opportunities to influence or exploit. NEW: Aksyonov via TASS claims democratic elections are impossible in Ukraine, intended to delegitimize the Ukrainian government internationally.
• International Condemnation/Legal Action: The OSCE report on Russian war crimes increases legal and diplomatic pressure on RF. The detention of George Galloway in London may be leveraged by RF in its anti-Western narratives.
• Moldovan Political Context: RF actively seeks to exploit political instability in Moldova, leveraging internal developments and propagating claims of Moldovan/SBU "forceful scenarios" in Transnistria, and now alleging NATO bases in Moldova for "logistic control." This is a significant escalation of IO regarding Moldova. RF is closely watching Moldovan parliamentary elections, which could provide new avenues for political interference or propaganda. NEW: Moldovan elections have begun, a critical event for the country's European course, and an area RF will likely seek to influence with IO.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(Confidence: HIGH) RF will continue multi-axis ground pressure across the Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetropavsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy axes. The immediate priority will be to contain and roll back any UAF tactical gains in the Dobropillya salient, specifically focusing on Dorozhne and surrounding areas, to prevent an encirclement of its forward-deployed units. RF will persist in attempting to consolidate and expand its claimed territorial gains in Derilovo, Mayske (DNR), and Stepove (Dnipropetropavsk Oblast), potentially leveraging successes like the capture of the UAF M113 APC and alleged elimination of Azov/Lyut militants near Kleban-Byk reservoir. Offensive operations in the Huliaipilske direction will likely intensify, aimed at regaining lost positions or testing UAF defenses. RF will likely continue to push advances in Kharkiv Oblast (Tykhyi, Vovchanski Khutory, Vovchansk, especially the Khatnye sector) and test UAF defenses in Sumy Oblast, as indicated by claims of repelling UAF counterattacks. Reconnaissance and probing attacks from the Yunakovka bridgehead in Sumy Oblast will continue to fix UAF forces. RF units will likely continue localized storming operations, accepting high casualties if tactical objectives are deemed sufficiently important. The threat of aviation strike assets (КАБ/FAB) will persist for the Pokrovsk and Kupiansk directions and intensify for Sumy Oblast. The alleged blocking of UAF units in Synelnykivskyi forest will be exploited. RF will continue heavy artillery and FPV drone attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopol district).

(Confidence: HIGH) RF is currently executing and will continue a focused, high-intensity aerial strike campaign, which is now assessed to be aimed at maximum degradation and psychological impact, though the missile phase is largely receding, with drone threats persisting. This will primarily target critical energy infrastructure, airfields (e.g., Starokonstantyniv), and urban centers, particularly Kyiv City (with confirmed impacts on residential buildings in Solomianskyi and Holosiivskyi districts, and new UAV/missile groups towards Vyshhorod/Irpiin/Bucha, Boyarka, Vasylkiv, Obukhiv, Ukrainka, Boryspil, Vishneve, Makariv), Bila Tserkva, Kharkiv (including city), Vinnytsia (with confirmed cruise missiles and new UAVs to Nemyriv, Ladizhyn, Bershad, Tulchyn), Chernihiv (with 23 UAVs heading towards Kyiv), Zaporizhzhia (with Kalibr missile, high-speed target, and confirmed residential fires), Poltava (with confirmed cruise missiles to Lokhvytsia, Lubny), Khmelnytskyi (to Starokostiantyniv, Derazhnia), Cherkasy (with confirmed cruise missiles to Kaniv, Smila, Talne), Pervomaisk, Mykolaiv/Kirovohrad (with high-speed targets), and Balta (Odeskyi Oblast). This strike will heavily utilize UAVs (Shaheds/Gerans, including multiple directly targeting Kyiv, Kharkiv city, the ~50 UAVs heading towards Odesa/Kirovohrad, 23 UAVs towards Haisyn, and a UAV towards Starokostiantyniv, plus new groups from Sumy Oblast and Vinnytsia Oblast). The confirmed cruise missile launches from Tu-95 strategic bombers near Engels, in addition to previously reported Kinzhal, ballistic missile launches, and Kalibr missile launches, indicate a renewed and extremely dangerous phase of the widespread air campaign. MLRS (Smerch) and high-speed targets will also be used, aiming for widespread disruption and psychological impact ahead of winter. RF air defenses in border regions (Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk, Penza, Lipetsk, Kaluga, Samara, Pskov, Yaroslavl, Zhukovsky) will remain on high alert to counter UAF deep strikes, as evidenced by recent interceptions, "Plan Kovyor" activation, and airspace restrictions. Rosaviatsiya lifting restrictions at Pskov, Kaluga, and Zhukovsky suggests some degree of confidence in their domestic air defense or a reduction in perceived threat from UAF deep strikes.

(Confidence: HIGH) RF will escalate hybrid operations against NATO member states, likely continuing drone overflights or disruptive activities targeting sensitive military and civilian infrastructure in the Baltic Sea region (Denmark, Lithuania, Norway, Netherlands, Germany), and possibly expanding to new regions. Poland's fighter scramble is a direct consequence. Concurrently, RF will intensify its information operations, focusing on:

1. Denying responsibility for provocations against NATO and shifting blame, leveraging the "NATO Cyber Headquarters against Russia" narrative.
2. Amplifying narratives of NATO/EU disunity and portraying Western nations as aggressive or subservient to the US, leveraging statements from figures like Orban and promoting antisemitic propaganda to sow division, potentially exploiting events like the detention of George Galloway. Владимир Сальдо's statements comparing "anti-Russian polemics" to "Nazi antisemitism" will be amplified to demonize Ukraine and further justify RF actions. TASS's reporting on Moldovan President Sandu will be used to destabilize Moldova and undermine pro-Western governments.
3. Undermining Ukraine's legitimacy and morale, particularly through narratives of "atrocities," "tightening mobilization," and denying territorial integrity, and focusing on perceived UAF financial/personal issues. RF will also likely highlight perceived RF military heroism and resilience, such as the combat experiences of the 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade, claims of eliminating Azov/Lyut militants, and potentially use "drone medical evacuations" as a soft power/morale-boosting narrative. RF will aggressively push for regime change in Ukraine through IO, as evidenced by Deputy Vodolatsky's statements and the amplification of images of "liquidated AFU servicemen" with US flag chevrons. RF will also use the SBU wanted list for Russian actress Polina Agureeva as a point of criticism. NEW: TASS claims about UAF destroying homes in Tetkino, Kursk, and claims of rescuing UAF soldiers attempting to surrender, will be heavily disseminated. Aksyonov's TASS interview will be widely disseminated to justify RF's actions and blame Ukraine/West. The TASS report on UAF drone supply issues near Volchansk will be used to create internal divisions within Ukraine. Aksyonov's statement on the impossibility of democratic elections in Ukraine will be a key IO piece. The TASS Mariinka video will be used to highlight devastation and blame UAF.
4. Promoting RF's diplomatic narrative of being open to talks on "root causes" while maintaining maximalist demands for Ukraine's demilitarization and territorial concessions. Aksyonov's statements on Putin/Trump dialogue opening opportunities for Crimea will be used to legitimize RF claims.
5. Exploiting regional tensions, specifically amplifying claims about Moldova and SBU involvement in Transnistria, and now alleging NATO bases in Moldova for "logistic control," to sow instability and distract from ongoing events in Ukraine. RF will monitor and potentially exploit the ongoing Moldovan parliamentary elections.
6. Highlighting RF/Chinese technological advancements (e.g., "flying wind turbine") to counter Western technological dominance narratives and project strength.
7. Domestic warnings on cyber security (MVD report) will be used to demonstrate government concern for its citizens, possibly deflecting from state-sponsored cyber activities.

(Confidence: HIGH) RF will continue its efforts to financially integrate occupied Ukrainian territories through mechanisms like the "digital ruble," aiming to solidify administrative control. Internal RF domestic policies, such as combining medical and МВД databases for driving license revocations, will continue to be implemented, indicating an increasing effort to control civilian life. Efforts to combat internal corruption, like the Krasnoyarsk bribery case, may be highlighted to project an image of internal order. The legal case against ex-judge Trishkin will likely be used to project a sense of rule of law, despite its potential to reveal internal issues.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(Confidence: MEDIUM) RF assesses that NATO's response to the escalating drone provocations and the current geopolitical climate (China's demands, Israeli conflict) is weak and launches a coordinated, large-scale multi-domain offensive operation:

1. Ground Offensive: RF commits significant operational reserves (including forces currently fixing UAF in other sectors) to violently crush the UAF salient at Dobropillya, aiming for a decisive encirclement and destruction of UAF units. Simultaneously, a secondary major ground assault is launched from the Yunakovka bridgehead towards Sumy City, employing armored thrusts and airborne elements, designed to open a new operational front and stretch UAF defenses to their breaking point. This would involve a significant disregard for personnel losses in pursuit of strategic objectives. RF will also launch simultaneous ground assaults in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, leveraging recent tactical gains like the capture of the M113 APC and claimed elimination of Azov/Lyut militants near Kleban-Byk reservoir, and intensify offensive actions in Kharkiv Oblast (Vovchansk area, Khatnye sector), including attempting to encircle any remaining UAF units in Synelnykivskyi forest. A simultaneous escalation of heavy artillery and FPV drone attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopol district) to fix UAF forces.
2. Air/Missile Offensive: Building on the currently executing "massive strike" with confirmed cruise missile launches, RF unleashes a catastrophic, prolonged missile and drone campaign against Kyiv and all major Ukrainian population centers, targeting all remaining government infrastructure, critical air defense systems, and the entire energy grid, aimed at causing widespread collapse, societal paralysis, and a complete, irreversible blackout. This strike would utilize all available strategic bombers (7 Tu-95MS, Tu-160) with sustained cruise missile launches, hypersonic (Kinzhal from MiG-31K), ballistic (from Crimea and now Kursk Governorate to Sumy/Lebedyn), Kalibr (from Black Sea platforms, including one confirmed towards Zaporizhzhia, and two others towards Novyy Buh/Kazanka), and conventional ballistic missiles, alongside mass drone swarm attacks (including multiple UAVs directly targeting Kyiv with confirmed impacts and numerous other groups, including new groups from northern Sumy and Vinnytsia), and active Smerch MLRS and high-speed targets (Mykolaiv/Kirovohrad, Balta), launched from multiple vectors, to overwhelm UAF air defenses. This would involve rapid re-arming and re-launch of strategic assets previously involved in the initial wave, sustained over 24-48 hours.
3. Hybrid Warfare Escalation: Concurrently, RF launches coordinated cyberattacks against NATO critical infrastructure (energy, financial systems, transportation, military C2), coupled with drone swarm attacks against multiple sensitive military installations within NATO territory (e.g., airbases, command centers) and strategic infrastructure (e.g., ports, airports), aimed at overwhelming NATO response capabilities and directly challenging the credibility of Article 5. RF also conducts covert sabotage operations against critical infrastructure in Western Europe, potentially including acts of terrorism in response to perceived UAF provocations in NATO countries. RF exploits the Moldovan political instability and its fabricated "forceful scenario" narrative, now compounded by claims of NATO bases in Moldova, to further destabilize the country, potentially creating a new flashpoint and diverting international attention. RF launches overt and covert efforts to destabilize the Ukrainian government, leveraging IO to call for regime change and foment internal unrest, coinciding with the military offensive. This would include direct interference in the ongoing Moldovan elections to install a pro-RF government.

This MDCOA would be designed to shatter UAF command and control, force a catastrophic choice on the allocation of strategic reserves, and directly challenge NATO's deterrence posture, potentially initiating a broader conflict, while simultaneously aiming to achieve a decisive victory in Ukraine before international response can fully materialize.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Immediate (0-6 hours - CRITICAL, ACTIVELY UNFOLDING):
  • Decision Point: UAF must decide on rapid reinforcement or tactical withdrawal in the Dobropillya salient if RF counter-attacks are successful. CRITICAL: UAF Air Command is currently making immediate decisions regarding the deployment of interceptors, activation of additional air defense systems, and potential dispersal of high-value assets in response to the ongoing widespread UAV, MLRS, high-speed threats (Mykolaiv/Kirovohrad, Balta), though missile threats appear to be receding, while drone threats persist, particularly to Vasylkiv and in Kyiv/Chernihiv Oblasts. This specifically targets Kyiv (with confirmed impacts, and new UAV/missile groups towards Vyshhorod/Irpiin/Bucha, Boyarka, Vasylkiv, Obukhiv, Ukrainka, Boryspil, Vishneve, Makariv), Poltava (Lokhvytsia, Lubny), Cherkasy (Kaniv, Smila, Talne), southern Kyiv Oblast (Tetiiv), Vinnytsia Oblast (Nemyriv, Ladizhyn, Bershad, Tulchyn), Pervomaisk, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Marhanets, Kharkiv (including city), Pokrovsk, Kupiansk (aviation strike assets), Sumy Oblast (new UAV groups, КАБ launches, and now confirmed cruise missiles and ballistic missiles), Vinnytsia Oblast (new UAV groups and confirmed cruise missiles), and other regions, including Starokostiantyniv, Derazhnia. The renewed nationwide alert demands immediate and adaptive AD.
  • Timeline: RF ground forces will attempt to stabilize or exploit the Dobropillya situation, and continue localized engagements in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast (Nikopol) and Kharkiv Oblast (Khatnye, Vovchansk). Continued, intense RF aerial activity (UAVs) can be expected across eastern, northern, central, and southern Ukraine, though missile threats appear to be subsiding, while drone threats persist.
• Near-Term (6-48 hours):
  • Decision Point: UAF High Command must decide on the level of response to the current widespread RF aerial strikes and further RF territorial gains in Dnipropetropavsk/Donetsk/Kharkiv, as well as any escalation of hybrid attacks against NATO. UAF must decide on resource allocation for emergency services and infrastructure repair following the current attacks, especially in Zaporizhzhia, Khmelnytskyi, and now Kyiv.
  • Timeline: Intensified RF ground operations are likely in Dobropillya, Huliaipilske, and Kharkiv directions. Post-strike Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for Kinzhal/ballistic/cruise/Kalibr strikes will be critical to inform recovery and defensive operations. NATO allies will likely convene urgent consultations regarding RF hybrid operations and the potential for Article 5 implications, especially following Poland's fighter scramble. Continued RF information operations regarding Moldova, UAF financial issues, the "NATO Cyber Headquarters," and calls for regime change in Ukraine are expected. RF will closely monitor Moldovan elections, potentially with an intent to interfere.

6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. IMMEDIATE AIR DEFENSE ACTIVATION & CIVILIAN ALERT (CRITICAL MULTI-VECTOR DRONE THREAT): All available air defense systems must be at their highest readiness level and actively engaged against the persistent and multi-vector drone threats, now focused on Kyiv (especially Vasylkiv and the main body over Kyiv/Chernihiv Oblasts) and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopol). Continue to disseminate immediate, urgent civilian air raid alerts nationwide, especially for Vinnytsia, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Dnipro, Odesa, Kropyvnytskyi, Marhanets, Uman, Zvenyhorod, Haisyn, Nizhyn, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv (Kyiv City, Bila Tserkva, Obukhiv/Ukrainka, Boryspil, Vasylkiv/Boyarka, Vyshhorod/Irpiin/Bucha, Makariv, Vishneve), Kharkiv (city), Sumy Oblast (including Lebedyn), and the southern direction (Pervomaisk, Mykolaiv/Kirovohrad). Prioritize mobile C-UAS and missile interceptor deployment to protect critical energy infrastructure and population centers from current and anticipated follow-on drone strikes. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE - GIVEN ONGOING DRONE THREATS)
2. ISR Re-tasking (BDA, Strategic Asset Status, UAV Tracking & New UAV Vectors, Aviation Strike Threat, Kalibr Launches, Ballistic Launches, M113 APC Loss, Kleban-Byk claims, Kharkiv Advances, UAF Surrender/Friendly Fire, UAF Drone Supply, Synelnykivskyi Forest, Nikopol Damage, Mariinka): Prioritize all available ISR assets (HUMINT, SIGINT, IMINT, OSINT verification) to immediately confirm the extent of UAF breakthroughs or RF consolidation around Dobropillya. Simultaneously, dedicate all available ISR to conduct immediate BDA for Kinzhal strikes in Khmelnytskyi, identify origins/targets of ballistic missiles from Crimea and Kursk Governorate (Sumy/Lebedyn), urgently confirm impact points and damage from confirmed cruise missile launches from Tu-95s (now affecting multiple central Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv), and track and conduct BDA for Kalibr missile launches from Myskhako Cape (Black Sea) and the specific Kalibr targeting Zaporizhzhia and Novyy Buh/Kazanka, and other rocket/high-speed threats to the south (Balta). Focus on real-time tracking of current UAV, MLRS, and high-speed missile trajectories, especially the multiple UAVs in/around Kyiv (including Boryspil, with confirmed impacts, and the 23 UAVs from Chernihiv, and new UAVs near Vyshhorod/Irpiin/Bucha, Boyarka, Vasylkiv, Makariv, Vishneve) and Kharkiv, the ~50 UAVs now active from Mykolaiv/Kherson, the multiple UAVs targeting Poltava and Starokostiantyniv, and new UAV groups and КАБ launches in Sumy Oblast and new UAVs/cruise missiles in Vinnytsia Oblast. Provide immediate updates on any observed aviation strike assets (КАБ/FAB) threatening Pokrovsk and Kupiansk. Confirm details of the captured UAF M113 APC in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Urgently verify RF claims of eliminating Azov/Lyut militants and equipment near Kleban-Byk reservoir, RF claims of advances in Kharkiv Oblast (especially Khatnye sector), RF claims of repelling UAF counterattacks in Sumy, RF claims of UAF soldiers attempting to surrender under friendly fire, RF claims of UAF drone supply issues near Volchansk, and RF claims of UAF units blocked in Synelnykivskyi forest. Conduct BDA for Nikopol district following overnight attacks. Analyze TASS Mariinka video for tactical insights into urban destruction. Provide real-time updates to tactical and strategic commanders. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
3. Enhanced Cross-Border Threat Assessment (Sumy/Kharkiv & Transnistria): Elevate threat assessment for renewed RF ground offensive in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Position mobile reserves and conduct pre-emptive artillery strikes on suspected RF staging areas/logistics near Yunakovka, Volchansk, Tykhyi, or Vovchanski Khutory. Continue monitoring of "Plan Kovyor" activation in Penza Oblast, the "air danger" regime in Lipetsk Oblast, and airspace restrictions for insights into RF domestic air defense posture and potential logistical vulnerabilities. Concurrently, intensify monitoring of the Transnistria region for any unusual troop movements or heightened rhetoric following RF claims of Moldovan/SBU involvement and alleged NATO bases for "logistic control." Closely monitor Moldovan parliamentary elections for potential RF interference and strategic implications. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
4. Strengthen Counter-Hybrid Defenses & NATO Coordination: Share all available intelligence on RF drone capabilities and tactics (e.g., swarm attacks, drone types from Norwegian/Dutch incidents, Lancet USV destruction) with NATO partners. Urgently request heightened electronic warfare support and shared air domain awareness. Implement enhanced physical security protocols around critical infrastructure nationwide, including against potential RF covert sabotage. Proactively counter RF narratives about "NATO Cyber Headquarters against Russia" by highlighting RF's own aggressive cyber and hybrid operations. Coordinate closely with Poland following their fighter jet scramble. (CRITICAL/HIGH)
5. Proactive Information Warfare Counter-Narratives: Develop and immediately disseminate proactive counter-narratives to RF propaganda, specifically addressing Orban's anti-Ukraine rhetoric, the antisemitic cartoon, RF gloating over Chernihiv blackouts, the destruction of the UAF USV, MaxxPro IFV, and M113 APC, the detention of George Galloway, RF claims regarding UAF financial/personal issues, and especially RF claims regarding Moldova and SBU in Transnistria, the new narrative of NATO bases for "logistic control," RF Deputy Vodolatsky's calls for regime change in Ukraine, RF claims of eliminating Azov/Lyut militants, the images of "liquidated AFU servicemen" with US flag chevrons, the reporting on Polina Agureeva, Vladimir Saldo's extreme rhetoric (e.g., "Nazi antisemitism"), RF claims of UAF destroying homes in Tetkino, Kursk, RF claims of UAF soldiers attempting to surrender under friendly fire, Aksyonov's TASS interview, the TASS report on UAF drone supply issues near Volchansk, and Aksyonov's claims that democratic elections in Ukraine are impossible. Counter RF narratives of military heroism by highlighting the high cost in personnel losses for RF units and the indiscriminate targeting of civilians in Kyiv (including residential buildings in Solomianskyi and Holosiivskyi districts, and consequences in 4 districts of Kyiv Oblast, with 5 injured) and Zaporizhzhia (8 injured). Leverage the MVD cyber fraud report to highlight internal RF vulnerabilities and lack of capacity to protect its own citizens. Focus on fact-based reporting, highlighting RF's own internal struggles, and emphasizing Ukrainian resilience. Monitor and counter any RF IO related to an unverified "December mobilization." Actively promote the importance of democratic processes in Moldova, contrasting it with RF's anti-democratic rhetoric. (HIGH)
6. Resource Prioritization (Long-Range Precision Strike & Air Defense): Advocate forcefully for the immediate delivery of Western long-range precision strike capabilities and additional modern air defense systems (including Patriots). Highlight their proven effectiveness against RF logistics and critical infrastructure. The current wave of cruise missile, Kalibr, ballistic missile, and drone attacks, particularly the direct impacts in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia, underscores this urgent requirement. (HIGH)
7. Monitor RF Logistics & Internal Dissension: Intensify ISR on fuel and transportation networks within Lipetsk, Sevastopol, and other RF regions. Monitor for signs of increased public discontent (e.g., Putin's reception queues, impact of Krasnoyarsk bribery case) that could impact RF's ability to sustain operations. Target vulnerable logistics nodes. Address any confirmed impact from a potential "December mobilization" on RF morale. Track implementation and impact of RF's new driving license revocation policy and the expanded airport restrictions. Monitor the former judge Trishkin case for its broader implications on RF internal stability and public trust. (MEDIUM)
8. Target RF C2: Continue to prioritize targeting RF command and control nodes, especially UAV C2 points and command posts overseeing ground offensives. Precision strikes on these targets directly degrade RF's ability to coordinate adaptive operations and mitigate the impact of continued high-casualty ground operations. (HIGH)