Situation Report

TIME: 280233Z SEP 25

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT - 280233Z SEP 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current operational picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (Confidence: HIGH)

RF forces maintain multi-axis pressure across the Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetropavsk, and Zaporizhzhia axes. Heavy reciprocal battles continue in Sumy Oblast. RF claims recent unverified advances in Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, and the occupation of the medical college area in Kupiansk. RF also claims a 5km advance on the Gulyaipole direction, entering Novoivanivka, and new positions south of Novoivanivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF claims full control of Serebryansky forestry and the liberation of Berëzovoye, Kalynivske (UAF denies Kalynivske), Derilovo, Mayske in DNR, and Stepove in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. RF continues to claim an offensive behind Chasiv Yar. UAF has confirmed the liberation of Pankivka, Donetsk Oblast, and Zarichne, and reports eliminating a Russian breakthrough near Pokrovsk. Heavy fighting continues on the Krasnolimanskoye direction. UAF General Staff reports over 95 combat engagements in the last 24 hours, repelling the majority of RF assaults across multiple axes, particularly Kupiansk (18/19 repelled), Lyman (10 repelled), Pokrovsk (15 repelled), Vremivka (9 repelled), and Orikhiv (8 repelled). UAF reports advances on the Dobropillya direction, having liberated 164.5 sq. km. Zelenskyy claims 360 sq. km liberated by Ukrainian forces in recent weeks, and approximately 1,000 Russian servicemen captured. DeepState map updated, indicating ongoing positional changes. RF sources claim a breakthrough on the border of Dnipropetropavsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and RF claims liberation of Dorozhne (Dobropillya area), contradicting earlier RF claims of UAF breakthroughs there.

Recent Updates:

• NEW - RF CRUISE MISSILES ENTER UKRAINIAN AIRSPACE: (Confidence: HIGH) Multiple cruise missiles (KР) from Tu-95MS strategic bombers are confirmed to have entered Ukrainian airspace via Sumy Oblast, moving south towards Poltava Oblast, with some moving towards Pyriatyn and then possibly Cherkasy Oblast/Zolotonosha. A separate group entered via Konotop/Nizhyn, moving west. This is a critical development, confirming the large-scale strategic missile strike previously anticipated.
• NEW - KALIBR MISSILE ON ZAPORIZHZHIA: (Confidence: HIGH) A Kalibr missile has been detected on a course towards Zaporizhzhia. Explosions are reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast amid the rocket threat. A high-speed target is also confirmed towards Zaporizhzhia.
• NEW - RF UAVs ON VINNYTSIA HEADING WEST: (Confidence: HIGH) UAVs are now reported on the north of Vinnytsia Oblast, heading west.
• NEW - RF UAVS TOWARDS BILA TSERKVA (KYIV OBLAST): (Confidence: HIGH) Two additional UAVs are reported to be flying towards Bila Tserkva.
• NEW - RF CLAIMS DESTRUCTION OF AZOV/LYUT FIGHTERS NEAR KLEBAN-BYK RESERVOIR: (Confidence: MEDIUM) RF (TASS via Astafyev, Southern Group of Forces) claims the destruction of 10 "blocked militants" of Azov and Lyut brigades near the Kleban-Byk reservoir, who allegedly refused to surrender. RF also claims liberation of over 1 sq. km near Krasnaya Donetskaya reservoir, destruction of 3 APCs, 6 EW stations, and 3 logistics units. This is a significant claim of successful localized ground engagement and elimination of UAF personnel.
• NEW - RF AIRSPACE RESTRICTIONS (PSKOV, YAROSLAVL, ZHUKOVSKY): (Confidence: HIGH) Restrictions on operations have been introduced at airports in Pskov, Yaroslavl, and Zhukovsky, RF, as reported by Rosaviatsiya. This expands previously noted restrictions and likely indicates domestic air defense activity or security measures.
• NEW - RF CLAIMS LIQUIDATED UAF PERSONNEL WITH US FLAG CHEVRON: (Confidence: HIGH) Colonelcassad (RF source) has posted images allegedly showing "liquidated AFU servicemen" with a US flag chevron, implying they "died for the interests of the West." This is a propaganda effort leveraging UAF casualties and Western support.
• UPDATE - KYIV DAMAGE ASSESSMENT: (Confidence: HIGH) Preliminary information indicates casualties in Kyiv, with consequences of the massive drone strike confirmed in 4 districts of Kyiv Oblast. This reinforces the severity of the aerial attack on the capital region.
• UPDATE - RF UAVs CONCENTRATING ON CHERNIHIV/KYIV OBLASTS: (Confidence: HIGH) 23 UAVs are now reported in Chernihiv Oblast, heading towards Kyiv Oblast. This represents a concentrated and immediate threat to the capital region.
• UPDATE - DIRECT HIT ON KYIV RESIDENTIAL BUILDING: (Confidence: HIGH) Video and preliminary reports confirm an impact on a five-story residential building in the Solomianskyi district of Kyiv, causing partial destruction. Debris from the attack also fell on non-residential structures. Medical personnel have been called to a residential building in the Dniprovskyi district. This is a direct, confirmed attack on civilian infrastructure within the capital.
• UPDATE - RF CALIBER MISSILE LAUNCHES CONFIRMED (Black Sea): (Confidence: HIGH) Kalibr missile launches reported from the Myskhako Cape area (Black Sea). Expected to enter Ukrainian airspace closer to 04:30 - 04:40Z. Monitoring groups are reporting on these launches. This represents a new, immediate, and significant threat from naval platforms.
• UPDATE - RF UAVs STRIKING KYIV CITY: (Confidence: HIGH) Multiple strike UAVs confirmed heading for the capital. Explosions and active air defense (PPO) work reported in Kyiv, with the KMVA confirming PPO activity. The air threat to Kyiv remains.
• UPDATE - RF UAV TOWARDS STAROKOSTIANTYNIV (KHMELNYTSKYI OBLAST): (Confidence: HIGH) A UAV is detected in eastern Khmelnytskyi Oblast, with a course towards Starokostiantyniv. This continues the threat to a key UAF air base.
• UPDATE - ROCKET DANGER TO SOUTHERN DIRECTION: (Confidence: HIGH) Rocket danger declared for the southern direction of Ukraine. This is separate from the Kalibr launches, indicating a broader and immediate missile threat.
• UPDATE - RF UAVs ENTERING SUMY OBLAST (NEW GROUPS): (Confidence: HIGH) New groups of Russian UAVs are reported to be entering Sumy Oblast, indicating continued and evolving drone attack vectors from the north.
• UPDATE - RF LAUNCHES KABs ON SUMY OBLAST: (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (КАБ) targeting Sumy Oblast.
• UPDATE - RF TROPHIES UAF M113 APC IN DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST: (Confidence: HIGH) Video evidence from RF sources (Colonelcassad) shows RF forces recovering a damaged US-supplied M113 Armored Personnel Carrier in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. This indicates ongoing combat losses for UAF and RF successful targeting/counter-mobility.
• UPDATE - RF Strategic Bomber Missile Launches Confirmed: (Confidence: HIGH) Pre-launch maneuvers of all Tu-95 strategic bombers near Engels have been completed, and the Ukrainian Air Force reports probable launches of cruise missiles. STERNENKO warns of additional cruise missiles from strategic aviation and naval carriers. This indicates a renewed phase of high-end missile strikes.
• UPDATE - RF UAVs Towards Odesa/Kirovohrad: (Confidence: HIGH) Approximately 50 UAVs reported across Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts, heading towards Odesa and Kirovohrad Oblasts. Threat of strike UAVs in Uman, Zvenyhorod, Haisyn (Cherkasy/Vinnytsia Oblasts) and Nizhyn (Chernihiv Oblast) districts. Approximately 23 UAVs are moving towards/through Haisyn, indicating a concentrated threat.
• UPDATE - RF UAVs Targeting Kharkiv City: (Confidence: HIGH) UAV detected in central and western Kharkiv Oblast, moving west, and another one towards Kharkiv city.
• UPDATE - RF Air Threat to Pokrovsk & Kupiansk: (Confidence: HIGH) Aviation strike assets (КАБ/FAB) are reported as a threat for the Pokrovsk and Kupiansk directions.
• UPDATE - RF UAVs Over Kyiv Oblast (Active PPO): (Confidence: HIGH) UAVs are confirmed in Kyiv Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast, moving southwest, with active air defense (PPO) working in Kyiv. NOTE: Kyiv is now being directly targeted with confirmed impacts.
• UPDATE - Nationwide Air Alert Re-Issued: (Confidence: HIGH) The nationwide air alert, which was partially lifted, is now being re-issued in response to renewed strategic bomber activity and missile launches. This indicates a dynamic and immediate high-threat environment.
• UPDATE - Zaporizhzhia Casualties and Damage: (Confidence: HIGH) Video and photo evidence from Zaporizhzhia confirms widespread destruction to civilian infrastructure including residential buildings and a gas station following RF attacks. The number of injured has increased to 3.
• UPDATE - RF Airspace Restrictions (Kaluga, Penza, Samara): (Confidence: HIGH) Temporary restrictions on aircraft arrivals and departures have been introduced at airports in Kaluga, Penza, and Samara, RF. This likely indicates domestic air defense activity or security measures in response to perceived threats.
• UPDATE - RF Air Alert in Lipetsk Oblast: (Confidence: HIGH) Air danger regime introduced across the entire Lipetsk Oblast, RF, possibly related to MiG-31K launches.
• UPDATE - RF UAV Towards Poltava: (Confidence: HIGH) UAV detected moving towards Poltava, one Shahed confirmed.
• UPDATE - RF Lancet Destroys UAF USV near Crimea: (Confidence: HIGH) Video evidence confirms an RF Lancet loitering munition destroyed a Ukrainian unmanned surface vessel near the coast of Crimea.
• UPDATE - "Plan Kovyor" Activated in Penza Oblast, RF: (Confidence: HIGH) Governor reports activation of "Plan Kovyor" (Carpet Plan), indicating potential air threat or airspace restriction.
• UPDATE - Damaged American International MaxxPro IFV: (Confidence: HIGH) Video footage confirms a severely damaged and burning American International MaxxPro infantry fighting vehicle in a muddy field. This indicates ongoing combat losses for UAF and effective RF targeting.
• PREVIOUS - Nationwide Air Alert, Kinzhal Launches towards Khmelnytskyi Oblast: (Confidence: HIGH) A nationwide air raid alert was declared. RF MiG-31K aircraft, launching "Kinzhal" aeroballistic missiles from the Lipetsk Oblast area, were confirmed to be targeting Khmelnytskyi Oblast, with explosions reported in the region. Two Kinzhal missiles were reportedly approaching Starokonstantyniv (Starkon). STATUS: Alert for Kinzhal was partially lifted, but is now part of the renewed nationwide alert.
• PREVIOUS - Ballistic Missile Launches from Crimea: (Confidence: HIGH) Multiple ballistic missile launches from Crimea were reported. STATUS: Alert for ballistic missiles was partially lifted, but is now part of the renewed nationwide alert.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (Confidence: HIGH)

Current conditions are generally clear and favorable for air operations across most of Ukraine. A cold snap is expected, with wet snow possible in Moscow by end of week, and temperatures dropping to -2°C in the Carpathians with possible snow soon. The strongest geomagnetic storm in 3 months (G3) continues to impact satellite communications and GPS for both sides. Freezing temperatures are forecast for five regions of the Russian Federation by the end of September. RF continues to target critical energy infrastructure, resulting in widespread power outages in Chernihiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Extensive urban damage has been reported in Zaporizhzhia, Vinnytsia, Sumy, and Konstantinovka (Donetsk Oblast) due to RF strikes. UAF deep strikes against RF oil infrastructure (Chuvashia) and rocket strikes on Belgorod also cause environmental and structural damage.

Recent Impacts:

• NEW - DAMAGE TO KYIV REGION FROM DRONE STRIKES: (Confidence: HIGH) Consequences of the massive drone attack are now reported in 4 districts of Kyiv Oblast, indicating widespread impact.
• UPDATE - Damage Assessment in Zaporizhzhia: (Confidence: HIGH) Images and video confirm significant damage to civilian infrastructure (gas station, residential buildings) in Zaporizhzhia following RF strikes. At least four strikes impacted the city. Casualties have risen to 3.
• UPDATE - RF Military Medical Scenario in Woodland: (Confidence: HIGH) Video depicts a field medical scenario in a woodland environment, likely during a military operation, showing personnel providing immediate medical assistance to a wounded individual. This highlights the harsh environmental conditions of combat and ongoing casualties.
• UPDATE - Damaged MaxxPro IFV: (Confidence: HIGH) Video shows a severely damaged and burning International MaxxPro armored vehicle in a muddy field, indicative of recent combat and adverse terrain conditions.
• UPDATE - Damaged UAF M113 APC: (Confidence: HIGH) Video shows a damaged M113 Armored Personnel Carrier being recovered by RF forces in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. This indicates ongoing combat losses and the challenging battlefield environment.
• UPDATE - Damage to Kyiv Residential Building: (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed partial destruction of a five-story residential building in Kyiv (Solomianskyi district) due to falling debris from an aerial attack. This highlights the direct impact on urban civilian areas.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (Confidence: HIGH)

RF Forces:

• Ground Operations: RF maintains offensive pressure on multiple axes (Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetropavsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Kharkiv, Konstantinovka, Slaviansk, Krasnoarmiisk, Druzhkovka, Huliaipilske). Confirmed and claimed gains continue (Berëzovoye, Kalynivske, Pereyezdnoye, Novoivanivka, Yunakovka, Shandyryholove, Derilovo, Mayske, Stepove, Dorozhne). RF claims recent advances in Volchansk and is conducting "meat motorcycle storms." RF MoD confirms Akhmat Spetsnaz activity in Kharkiv. RF MoD proposes changes to the mobilization disease list, indicating potential adjustments to personnel intake. RF's "Manul" battalion assault troops claim to have shot down an enemy drone. RF 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade 'Sv. George' is engaged in reconnaissance and storming operations, highlighting sustained ground combat and significant casualties. RF forces have reportedly captured a US-supplied M113 APC in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, indicating successful engagements. NEW: RF claims destruction of 10 "Azov" and "Lyut" militants near Kleban-Byk reservoir, and liberation of over 1 sq. km near Krasnaya Donetskaya reservoir, implying localized ground successes.
• Air Activity: RF continues large-scale drone (Shaheds, "Geran-2") and КАБ/FAB strikes, particularly on Chernihiv, Sumy, and Donetsk Oblasts. RF reconnaissance UAVs are active across multiple northern and eastern oblasts. RF PVO claims shooting down a total of 19 Ukrainian UAVs over Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk Oblasts, and 11 more over Rostov, Belgorod, and Kursk. A "massive strike" on Ukrainian objects was being prepared, with Tu-95MS and Tu-160 strategic bombers confirmed airborne (now 7 Tu-95MS). Multiple UAVs were targeting Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv (alert re-declared), Poltava, and eastern/western Kharkiv/Dnipropetropavsk Oblasts. Smerch MLRS strikes reported on Marhanets/Zaporizhzhia. High-speed targets also reported. "Plan Kovyor" activated in Penza Oblast, indicating possible domestic air defense activity or response to UAF deep strikes. New groups of UAVs are heading southwest from northern Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, with one now moving from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv Oblast. UPDATE: Multiple UAVs are now confirmed heading towards Kyiv, including strike UAVs and one having passed Boryspil, with active PPO in Kyiv. The concentration of UAVs in Bila Tserkva district has reduced to 4-7. NEW: Nationwide air alerts are now re-issued with confirmed probable cruise missile launches from Tu-95s near Engels, confirmed Kalibr missile launches from Myskhako Cape (Black Sea) expected to enter Ukrainian airspace around 04:30 - 04:40Z, and a significant concentration of UAVs still active in Kyiv Oblast (Bila Tserkva, Obukhiv/Ukrainka, Boryspil) and directly targeting Kyiv City, as well as Kharkiv, Odesa, Kirovohrad, Poltava, and Starokostiantyniv. Rocket danger declared for the southern direction. КАБ launches confirmed against Sumy Oblast. NEW: Confirmed cruise missiles (KР) from Tu-95MS have entered Ukrainian airspace via Sumy Oblast, moving south towards Poltava/Pyriatyn/Cherkasy. Another group entered via Konotop/Nizhyn heading west. A Kalibr missile is confirmed on approach to Zaporizhzhia, with explosions reported. High-speed targets are also confirmed towards Zaporizhzhia. UAVs are reported in northern Vinnytsia heading west, and two additional UAVs are towards Bila Tserkva. 23 UAVs are now in Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast, posing a concentrated threat to the capital region.
• Naval Activity: RF naval vessels are actively operating near critical infrastructure (Tuapse) and are engaged in counter-drone measures. RF Lancet drones are being used for naval strikes, successfully destroying a UAF USV near Crimea. UPDATE: Kalibr missile launches from Myskhako Cape indicate active naval strike operations, and now a Kalibr missile is targeting Zaporizhzhia.
• Logistics: The transfer of a railway section from Iran to RF indicates strategic logistical development. RF continues to experience fuel shortages in Lipetsk and Sevastopol, and relies on fundraising for certain military provisions. NEW: Expanded airport restrictions in Pskov, Yaroslavl, and Zhukovsky likely impact civil aviation and could affect military logistics.
• Control Measures: RF has strengthened criminal liability for "foreign agents" and is implementing social policies. RF leadership continues diplomatic engagements. RF is taking steps to control information and narratives, including through figures like Lavrov at the UNGA, who is claimed to have "laid low" Western proponents. RF is also using its "digital ruble" in occupied territories. RF is combining medical and МВД databases to revoke driving licenses for individuals with dangerous diseases. RF communal companies are prohibited from using collectors for debt recovery. A new criminal case concerning bribes against the ex-mayor of Krasnoyarsk, Vladislav Loginov, with seven new defendants, highlights ongoing internal issues and corruption. RF Interior Ministry (MVD) reports fraudsters are implementing malware under the guise of bank app reinstallation. This indicates ongoing internal cyber threats and public vulnerability. RF Deputy Viktor Vodolatsky (TASS) calls for Ukrainians to "rise up against the Nazi regime" and elect a new president. This is a direct political/IO effort to sow dissent and undermine Ukrainian leadership. NEW: RF (TASS) reports Russian actress Polina Agureeva is on the SBU wanted list, likely a propaganda piece aimed at discrediting Ukrainian security services.

UAF Forces:

• Ground Operations: UAF maintains an active defensive posture, repelling the majority of RF assaults. UAF reports localized advances in the Dobropillya direction and confirmed liberation of Pankivka and Zarichne. UAF 3rd Assault, 95th Air Assault, 30th Mechanized, 33rd Mechanized, and 225th Separate Assault (Black Swan) Brigades are actively engaged, including clearing wooded areas, capturing RF personnel, and conducting drone strikes. UAF Special Operations Forces are also conducting effective strikes.
• Air Defense: UAF maintains a robust and responsive air defense network, successfully repelling a high percentage of RF UAV attacks and conducting successful operations in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. UAF continues to issue air raid alerts, with alerts currently active nationwide due to UAV, high-speed target, ballistic missile, Kinzhal, cruise missile, and Kalibr threats. PVO is actively engaged, with the Kyiv air alert recently re-declared and explosions reported in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. UPDATE: Air alerts are now being re-issued across Ukraine in response to cruise missile launches from Tu-95s, and PPO is actively working in Kyiv Oblast against multiple UAVs, including a group in Bila Tserkva district and directly in Kyiv City, with confirmed impacts. UAF Air Force (PS ZSU) has issued warnings about missile danger for the southern direction and UAVs targeting Starokostiantyniv, and confirms КАБ launches against Sumy Oblast. NEW: UAF Air Force confirms cruise missiles on Sumy Oblast moving south, and on Chernihiv Oblast. UAF Air Force is tracking UAVs in northern Vinnytsia heading west, and two additional UAVs towards Bila Tserkva.
• Tactical Drone Utilization: UAF continues to utilize drones for both reconnaissance and strike capabilities, as evidenced by FPV drone strikes on the Pokrovsk direction (Black Raven, 2nd Mountain Assault Battalion, 414th Brigade of UAVs) and the 30th Mechanized Brigade. UAF Naval drones are also operating effectively near RF naval infrastructure, though one was recently destroyed by an RF Lancet. UAF 65th OMBr Ronins successfully struck a Buk SAM PSU and logistics targets. RF sources show "drones evacuating 'wounded'" which could either be a demonstration of RF's own drone medical evacuation capabilities or an attempt to show UAF capabilities/losses.
• Deep Strike Capabilities: UAF continues to demonstrate long-range precision strike capabilities against RF infrastructure (oil pumping station in Chuvashia) and military targets (Belgorod rocket strikes, destroyed RF logistics trucks). Zaporizhzhia Oblast experienced a power outage due to UAF attacks on energy facilities.
• Recruitment/Sustainment: UAF 26th Artillery Brigade is actively recruiting, and public support for veterans' rehabilitation and drone programs is ongoing. RF sources claim UAF authorities are promising 2 million Hryvnia payments and two-year contracts to retain contract soldiers, indicating UAF efforts to boost recruitment and retention.
• International Engagement: Zelenskyy's office and KMVA are actively engaged in UN General Assembly diplomacy. Zelenskyy maintains strong rhetoric on controlled weapon exports and potential retaliation for RF blackouts. Moldova is allegedly involving SBU for a силового сценария (forceful scenario) in Transnistria.

1.4. Intelligence Gaps and Collection Requirements

• KYIV CITY BDA (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE): Urgently conduct Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the confirmed impact on the five-story residential building in Solomianskyi district, Kyiv, the medical call-out in Dniprovskyi district, and the broader damage in 4 districts of Kyiv Oblast due to drone strikes. Determine extent of destruction, casualties, and the precise nature of the impact (direct hit, debris). (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF CRUISE MISSILE BDA (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE): Urgently conduct Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the confirmed cruise missile launches from Tu-95s via Sumy/Chernihiv Oblasts targeting Poltava, Pyriatyn, and potentially Cherkasy/Zolotonosha. Determine specific targets hit, extent of damage, and casualties. This is a primary concern given the renewed nationwide alert and new vector of attack. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF KALIBR MISSILE BDA (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE): Urgently conduct Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the confirmed Kalibr missile launch from Myskhako Cape (Black Sea) and the newly detected Kalibr missile targeting Zaporizhzhia. Determine specific targets hit, extent of damage, and casualties. This is a primary concern given the renewed nationwide alert and new vector of attack. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF Widespread UAV Threat Assessment (Kyiv City, Bila Tserkva, Obukhiv/Ukrainka, Kharkiv, Odesa, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Chernihiv, Poltava Oblasts, Starokostiantyniv, SUMY OBLAST) (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE): Urgently determine the specific types, origins, and intended targets of the approximately 4-7 UAVs in Bila Tserkva district (plus the 2 new ones reported), the multiple UAVs now targeting Kyiv (including new groups from Sumy/Chernihiv Oblasts, particularly the 23 UAVs from Chernihiv), the UAV targeting Starokostiantyniv, the ~50 UAVs across Mykolaiv/Kherson towards Odesa/Kirovohrad, the 23 UAVs towards Haisyn, and strike UAVs in Poltava. Assess immediate threat to critical infrastructure, UAF forces, and civilian populations. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF Aviation Strike Asset Confirmation (Pokrovsk/Kupiansk, SUMY OBLAST) (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE): Confirm the deployment and specific targets of RF aviation strike assets (КАБ/FAB) threatening the Pokrovsk and Kupiansk directions, and for the confirmed КАБ launches in Sumy Oblast. Assess immediate risk to UAF ground forces and critical infrastructure. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF Kinzhal/Ballistic Strike BDA (Updated - CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE): Urgently conduct Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) in Khmelnytskyi Oblast following confirmed Kinzhal strikes and other regions following ballistic missile launches from Crimea. Determine specific targets hit (military infrastructure, airfields, civilian infrastructure), extent of damage, and casualties. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• UAF Breakthrough/RF Control Dobropillya Salient (CRITICAL): Urgent and independent verification is required for the conflicting claims regarding the Dobropillya salient: the earlier RF claim of a UAF breakthrough and potential encirclement, and the newer RF claim of liberating Dorozhne. This is paramount to understanding the tactical situation. (Confidence: HIGH)
• RF Claims Kleban-Byk Reservoir (CRITICAL): Urgent and independent verification is required for RF claims of eliminating 10 "Azov"/"Lyut" militants near Kleban-Byk reservoir and liberating 1 sq. km. This could indicate a successful localized counter-offensive or propaganda. (CRITICAL)
• Synelnykivskyi Forest Encirclement Verification (CRITICAL): Urgent and independent verification is required for the RF (TASS) claim that UAF units are encircled in the Synelnykivskyi forest, Kharkiv Oblast, and have been abandoned by command. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Shandyryholove RF Advance Verification (CRITICAL): Urgent and independent verification is required for the RF (TASS via Marochko) claim that UAF forces have left Shandyryholove, DNR, and RF forces are conducting clearance operations. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Derilovo, Mayske, Stepove RF Control Verification (CRITICAL): Urgent and independent verification is required for the RF (MoD, TASS, Военкор Котенок, Операция Z, MoD Russia, Басурин о главном) claim of liberation and control over Derilovo and Mayske in DNR, and Stepove in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. (Confidence: HIGH)
• M113 APC Loss Details (CRITICAL): Verify the circumstances of the US-supplied M113 APC being captured/damaged in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Determine the unit involved, type of engagement, and any casualties. (CRITICAL)
• Lipetsk/Sevastopol Fuel Crisis Impact Assessment (CRITICAL): Urgent assessment is needed for the extent and impact of the fuel crisis in Lipetsk and Sevastopol Oblasts on both civilian and military logistics. Monitor RF "air danger" regime in Lipetsk Oblast. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast Power Outage BDA (CRITICAL): Conduct immediate Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the UAF attack on energy facilities in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Verify targets, extent of damage, and the duration/scale of the power outage. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Penza, Kaluga, Samara, Pskov, Yaroslavl, Zhukovsky Airspace Restrictions Rationale: (Confidence: MEDIUM) Determine the specific reason for activating temporary airspace restrictions in these RF airports. Is this a response to a perceived UAF drone threat, internal security concern, or a training exercise?
• Moldova/Transnistria "Forceful Scenario" Verification: (Confidence: MEDIUM) Investigate RF claims of Moldova involving SBU for a "forceful scenario" in Transnistria. Assess potential for renewed tensions or escalation in the region. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF "Manul" Battalion Drone Engagement Verification: (Confidence: MEDIUM) Verify the claim by RF's "Manul" battalion of shooting down an enemy drone. Identify the type of drone and potential impact on UAF ISR capabilities.
• RF 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade Battle Damage Assessment: (Confidence: MEDIUM) Verify the reported high casualty rates (12 down to 3) in the 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade and assess the impact on their combat effectiveness and morale.
• RF Claimed UAF Personnel with US Chevron: (Confidence: MEDIUM) While primarily an IO piece, verify if the images of "liquidated AFU servicemen" with a US flag chevron are authentic and if the individuals can be identified. This is to understand specific UAF units operating in certain areas and for potential counter-IO.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (Confidence: HIGH)

Capabilities:

• Persistent Mass Aerial Strike Capability (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF maintains an extremely high capability for large-scale, coordinated UAV, guided bomb (КАБ/FAB), MLRS (Smerch), ballistic, and missile attacks across Ukraine. This includes confirmed "Kinzhal" launches from MiG-31K, multiple ballistic missile launches from Crimea, confirmed Kalibr missile launches from the Black Sea (including one targeting Zaporizhzhia), now confirmed cruise missile launches from Tu-95 strategic bombers near Engels (entering via Sumy/Chernihiv Oblasts towards Poltava/Cherkasy), and a significant concentration of UAVs still active in Bila Tserkva district (4-7, plus 2 new ones), with additional UAVs directly targeting Kyiv (confirmed impacts) and 23 UAVs now approaching Kyiv from Chernihiv Oblast. RF air defenses remain active and effective in intercepting UAF drones over Russian territory and are reacting to domestic airspace threats ("Plan Kovyor" in Penza Oblast, "air danger" in Lipetsk Oblast, and airspace restrictions in Kaluga, Penza, Samara, Pskov, Yaroslavl, Zhukovsky). Demonstrated ability to shoot down UAF drones by ground units (Manul battalion).
• RF Mine Warfare Capabilities: RF maintains a robust and adapting combat engineering capability, employing new methods of mining and demining.
• IO/PsyOps Capabilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF demonstrates advanced and adaptive capabilities in information operations, including false-flag narratives, symbolic gestures, exploiting perceived NATO divisions, and demonizing Ukraine. This is evidenced by Lavrov's statements at UNGA, Orban's anti-Ukraine rhetoric, antisemitic propaganda, and now direct calls from RF Deputy Vodolatsky for Ukrainians to "rise up" and elect a new president. RF is actively using channels like "Военкоры Русской Весны" to push narratives (e.g., Moldova/SBU in Transnistria, UAF salary issues). RF Interior Ministry is actively reporting on cyber fraud, indicating an internal focus on information security for its own population, even if it is a general public alert. NEW: Amplification of images showing "liquidated AFU servicemen" with US flag chevrons is a direct and impactful propaganda effort. RF (TASS) reporting on Polina Agureeva being on the SBU wanted list is another such effort.
• Targeted UAV Warfare Capabilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF maintains structured efforts to enhance drone warfare capabilities, including direct recruitment for specialized UAV battalions and advanced counter-UAV systems like the "Flying Dutchman." Demonstrated capability to use Lancet loitering munitions against UAF naval drones. The sheer volume of UAVs (4-7 plus 2 new ones in Bila Tserkva district, multiple directly targeting Kyiv and Kharkiv, ~50 towards Odesa/Kirovohrad, 23 UAVs in Chernihiv heading towards Kyiv, plus new groups from Sumy Oblast and Vinnytsia) underscores this capability. RF also demonstrates capability for drone medical evacuation ("drones evacuating 'wounded'") though the context needs verification.
• Financial Control Mechanisms for ТОТ (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF's implementation of the "digital ruble" in occupied territories indicates a new capability to exert financial and economic control.
• Counter-Battery and Counter-Armor Capabilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF continues to demonstrate effective counter-battery and counter-armor capabilities through artillery and drone strikes, including targeting moving vehicles and Western-supplied equipment. MLRS (Smerch) are being actively used. Confirmed destruction of UAF MaxxPro IFV and now capture of a UAF M113 APC. NEW: RF claims destruction of UAF armored personnel carriers (3x APCs) near Kleban-Byk reservoir.
• Logistic Resilience (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF is diversifying and strengthening long-range logistical capabilities, such as the railway section transfer from Iran, while also relying on ad-hoc fundraising for soldier sustenance and equipment due to internal fuel shortages. NEW: Domestic airspace restrictions (Pskov, Yaroslavl, Zhukovsky) highlight either security measures or a response to internal air threats, potentially impacting logistics.
• Tactical C2 and ISR (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF command posts are actively engaged in combat operations, utilizing drone footage and coordinating ground movements, indicating effective tactical C2 and integrated ISR. The detailed combat experience recounted by a fighter from the 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade 'Sv. George' points to coordinated reconnaissance and storming tactics. The coordinated multiple UAV attacks on diverse regions, now including direct targeting of Kyiv with confirmed impacts, and the confirmed widespread cruise missile launches, indicate effective C2. NEW: RF (Astafyev) reports indicate operational command and control during the alleged engagement near Kleban-Byk reservoir.
• Hybrid Warfare Swarm Tactics (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The reported "swarms of drones" over Schleswig-Holstein, Germany, and drone activity near Denmark, Lithuania, Norway, and the Netherlands, indicates an advanced capability in hybrid warfare.
• Motorcycle Assaults (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF is utilizing motorcycle-mounted assault groups for rapid deployment, though these are vulnerable to UAF targeting.
• Counter-USV Capabilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF has demonstrated the ability to capture and analyze advanced UAF unmanned surface vessels and use Lancet drones for naval strikes, indicating developing counter-USV capabilities. Confirmed destruction of a UAF USV by Lancet.
• Soft Power Initiatives (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF is deploying soft power initiatives, such as aid to Central Asian countries, to strengthen geopolitical influence. RF also uses cultural events (e.g., rapper Xzibit concerts) for soft power, though this is a low military concern.
• Adjusted Mobilization Capability (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF is adjusting personnel intake criteria by proposing changes to the mobilization disease list. Unverified intelligence suggests potential mobilization in December. RF is also using databases to revoke driving licenses.
• NATO Reinforcement Awareness: RF is aware of NATO force posture adjustments in the Baltic region.

Intentions:

• Intention for Geopolitical Reshaping (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF continues its long-term strategy to build a multi-polar world order, challenge Western dominance, and strengthen alliances with non-Western powers, as evidenced by diplomatic engagements and military cooperation, including Lavrov's UNGA address.
• Intention to Degrade UAF Capabilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF's sustained ground offensives and continuous aerial strikes aim to degrade UAF's combat effectiveness, logistical capacity, and civilian resilience, specifically targeting drone infrastructure, artillery, and armored assets. The recent widespread aerial campaign, including "Kinzhal," ballistic missile threats, confirmed cruise missile launches from strategic bombers, confirmed Kalibr missile launches (including one targeting Zaporizhzhia), and direct UAV attacks on Kyiv (confirmed impacts), underscores this intent. NEW: Claims of destroying UAF personnel and equipment near Kleban-Byk reservoir reinforce this intention.
• Intention to Isolate and Encircle (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF aims to tactically isolate and destroy UAF forces on key axes, aiming for localized operational breakthroughs, as evidenced by stated goals in storming operations and reported casualty tolerance.
• Intention to Open New Fronts (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The claimed capture of Yunakovka and continued advances in Volchansk and other sectors indicate an intention to open new major ground offensive axes and expand territorial control.
• Intention for Information Dominance (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF is committed to dominating the information environment through rapid dissemination of false-flag narratives, amplification of anti-Western sentiment, and efforts to discredit UAF and Western governments. This includes claims regarding Moldova/Transnistria and UAF recruitment/payment issues, and now direct calls for Ukrainians to overthrow their government. RF's renewed focus on the "NATO Cyber Headquarters against Russia" narrative indicates an intent to frame its hybrid actions as defensive. RF is also warning its own population about cyber fraud, a likely domestic IO effort. NEW: The propagation of images of "liquidated AFU servicemen" with US flag chevrons and reporting on Polina Agureeva's SBU wanted status are explicit attempts to shape public perception and discredit Ukraine.
• Intention to Control Occupied Territories and Resources (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF aims to further integrate and legitimize its control over seized Ukrainian land and resources through economic (digital ruble) and energy leverage.
• Intention to Consolidate Russian National Identity (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF leadership is focused on consolidating a specific, traditional narrative of Russian identity, influencing social and political policies.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations (Confidence: HIGH)

• Expanded Air Campaign Effort (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF has significantly expanded and intensified its primary air campaign effort across multiple Ukrainian oblasts (Odesa, Sumy, Kyiv, Kropyvnytskyi, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia, Chernihiv), now including confirmed deployment of MiG-31K with Kinzhal missiles, multiple ballistic missile launches from Crimea, an increased number of strategic bombers (7 Tu-95MS) with confirmed cruise missile launches (entering via Sumy/Chernihiv Oblasts towards Poltava/Cherkasy), and newly confirmed Kalibr missile launches from the Black Sea (including one targeting Zaporizhzhia), in addition to UAVs (including a massive concentration in Kyiv Oblast, with direct targeting of Kyiv City and confirmed impacts), MLRS (Smerch), and high-speed missiles. This demonstrates an adaptive and persistent strategy aimed at systemic degradation. New UAV groups in northern Sumy/Chernihiv Oblasts indicate adapting attack vectors, with 23 UAVs now moving from Chernihiv towards Kyiv, others targeting Poltava, a new threat to Kharkiv city, Starokostiantyniv, and new groups in northern Vinnytsia heading west, plus 2 more towards Bila Tserkva. The renewed nationwide air alert confirms the immediate and high-level nature of this adapted offensive. КАБ launches now confirmed against Sumy Oblast, showing adaptation of guided bomb usage.
• New Ground Offensive Axis (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF continues to adapt its ground operations, with claimed territorial gains in Dnipropetropavsk and Donetsk, and renewed assault operations in the Huliaipilske direction. The Yunakovka bridgehead remains a potential new axis. RF units, like the 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade, continue complex reconnaissance and storming missions despite high casualties, indicating a persistent, albeit costly, ground offensive strategy. Threat from aviation strike assets is now present for Pokrovsk and Kupiansk. Capture of UAF M113 APC in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast indicates successful localized ground engagements. NEW: RF claims of successfully eliminating UAF personnel and equipment near Kleban-Byk reservoir also indicate adaptive localized ground tactics.
• Enhanced Counter-Naval Drone Tactics (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF is actively employing small arms, Lancet loitering munitions (confirmed successful), and improved ISR to counter UAF unmanned surface vessels.
• Adaptive IO for Casualties and Justification (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF quickly adapts its information operations to leverage high-profile events, exploit perceived adversary divisions, and justify its actions through various propaganda narratives (e.g., Lavrov's UNGA speech, Moldova/Transnistria claims, UAF payment narratives). The new focus on NATO's "Cyber Headquarters" suggests an adaptive framing of its own hybrid actions. Direct political messaging from RF Deputy Vodolatsky calling for regime change in Ukraine represents an escalation in IO tactics. NEW: The immediate amplification of images of "liquidated AFU servicemen" with US flag chevrons and reporting on individuals on SBU wanted lists are adaptive IO tactics.
• Escalated Hybrid Operations Against NATO (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The confirmed drone activity over Danish Ministry of Defense facilities, disruption of Vilnius International Airport, and drone swarms in Germany, Norway, and the Netherlands indicate a significant escalation in RF's hybrid operations targeting NATO member states. RF is also framing NATO's actions in Moldova as "control of logistics," indicating an adaptive justification for potential future escalations there.
• Direct Recruitment for UAV Units (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF is directly recruiting for specialized UAV battalions and relying on fundraising for equipment and basic soldier sustenance, indicating adaptive personnel sourcing and procurement strategies.
• Financial Control in ТОТ (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The introduction of "digital rubles" in occupied territories is a new adaptation in economic warfare and control.
• IO Adaptations to Internal Dissent (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF's C2 is attempting to manage growing internal dissent, adapting its IO to address public discontent and troop morale issues. Unverified intelligence suggests potential mobilization in December. RF is also using databases to track and potentially restrict civilian activities (driving licenses). Internal corruption cases, like the Krasnoyarsk bribery investigation, highlight ongoing internal governance challenges. RF Interior Ministry warning about bank app malware could be a public awareness campaign or an attempt to deflect from state-sponsored cyber threats.
• Adaptive Counter-Battery and Counter-Armor Tactics (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF continues to adapt its ISR and precision fires to neutralize UAF artillery and armored assets, now including active MLRS (Smerch) strikes. Confirmed destruction of MaxxPro IFV by RF and now capture of UAF M113 APC. NEW: Claims of destroying UAF APCs near Kleban-Byk reservoir.
• Strategic Logistics Diversification (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The transfer of a railway section from Iran to RF signifies a strategic logistical development for long-term supply.
• Lavrov's UNGA Diplomatic Offensive (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Lavrov's diplomatic offensive at the UNGA, including specific narratives on Ukraine, NATO, and global order, represents a coordinated and adaptive effort to shape international discourse.
• Domestic Air Defense Posture: RF is adapting its domestic air defense posture with "Plan Kovyor" activations and airspace restrictions in Kaluga, Penza, Samara, Pskov, Yaroslavl, and Zhukovsky, likely in response to increased UAF deep strike capabilities or perceived threats.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• RF Fuel Shortages: A severe and growing fuel crisis is impacting Lipetsk and Sevastopol Oblasts, indicating internal logistical challenges that could affect military resupply. The declaration of "air danger" in Lipetsk could further disrupt logistics. (Confidence: HIGH)
• RF Logistics Infrastructure Targeted: UAF continues to target RF oil infrastructure and railway logistics (e.g., Vinnytsia traction substation), causing disruptions. (Confidence: HIGH)
• RF Military Procurement Issues: Ongoing reliance on public fundraising for equipment and soldier sustenance (food, mobile air defense, marine infantry) highlights deficiencies in official military supply chains. (Confidence: HIGH)
• RF Internal Supply Chain Disruptions: Transportation disruptions (train accidents, airport restrictions, now in Kaluga, Penza, Samara, Pskov, Yaroslavl, Zhukovsky) and crop losses indicate broader vulnerabilities to internal logistics. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Personnel Support Challenges: High numbers of fighters requiring psychological support, claims of injured soldiers being sent to the front, and allegations of soldier suicides indicate significant and growing personnel sustainment issues for RF. The combat account from the 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade, detailing high casualties and injured personnel needing treatment, underscores this. Unverified intelligence suggests potential mobilization in December to address personnel shortfalls. RF is also consolidating medical and МВД databases which could affect personnel for both military and civilian roles. RF sources show "drones evacuating 'wounded'" which could be an attempt to highlight advanced medical evacuation capabilities, potentially to improve morale or propaganda, while also reflecting ongoing casualties. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Naval Operational Issues: UAF claims of collisions damaging Black Sea Fleet vessels, if verified, indicate internal operational issues. (Confidence: MEDIUM) UPDATE: Active Kalibr missile launches from the Black Sea, including one targeting Zaporizhzhia, demonstrate RF naval strike capabilities are still robust despite potential issues.
• ZNPP Power Status: Conflicting reports on ZNPP's power status highlight ongoing logistical and safety concerns. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
• Strategic Logistics Enhancement: The transfer of a railway section from Iran to RF signifies a long-term strategic logistical enhancement. (Confidence: HIGH)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• RF Centralized C2 and Adaptive Targeting (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF maintains a centralized C2 structure capable of coordinating multi-axis ground offensives and large-scale, adaptive aerial campaigns, as evidenced by the widespread aerial attacks (including Kinzhal, ballistic, confirmed cruise missile, confirmed Kalibr missile launches (including one targeting Zaporizhzhia), plus massive UAV deployments and direct targeting of Kyiv with confirmed impacts), coordinated ground movements, and the activation of domestic airspace control ("Plan Kovyor" in Penza, "air danger" in Lipetsk, and airspace restrictions in Kaluga, Penza, Samara, Pskov, Yaroslavl, Zhukovsky). The detailed account from the 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade confirms operational command and control during reconnaissance and storming missions. NEW: RF claims of coordinated ground engagement near Kleban-Byk reservoir also point to effective tactical C2.
• RF IO Control and Narrative Management (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF C2 effectively manages the information environment, swiftly deploying narratives to counter threats and exploit opportunities, including during Lavrov's UNGA address and in spreading claims about Moldova and UAF internal financial issues. The immediate framing of "NATO Cyber Headquarters against Russia" demonstrates proactive narrative control. The MVD warning on cyber fraud is likely a coordinated effort to control information or public perception domestically. The direct political appeal from RF Deputy Vodolatsky for Ukrainians to overthrow their government demonstrates a coordinated C2 effort to influence adversary populations. NEW: The coordinated dissemination of "liquidated AFU servicemen" images and the Polina Agureeva story show central control over propaganda.
• UAF C2 Resilience Under Pressure (HIGH CONFIDENCE): UAF General Staff provides regular operational updates, and high repel rates for RF assaults, along with effective drone and SOF operations, demonstrate resilient tactical and operational C2 despite intense pressure. Active air defense responses and public alerts show effective real-time C2 under aerial threats, including rapid declaration of nationwide air alerts for Kinzhal, ballistic missile, cruise missile, and now Kalibr missile threats. Active PPO in Kyiv Oblast and Kyiv City against UAVs, with rapid public alerts from KMVA and Air Force, further demonstrates responsive C2. NEW: UAF Air Force (PS ZSU) is providing real-time updates on missile and UAV movements, demonstrating robust C2 and situational awareness.
• RF Internal Dissent as C2 Challenge (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Growing public criticism of RF military leadership, mobilization, and social issues, along with significant public discontent at Putin's reception, highlights an internal C2 challenge in maintaining public support and troop morale. The unverified December mobilization intelligence would exacerbate this. RF's attempts to control internal information (e.g., through newspaper distribution or by revoking driving licenses) reflect this challenge. The Krasnoyarsk bribery case also points to internal governance and corruption issues potentially impacting C2 integrity.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (Confidence: HIGH)

• Active Defense and Counter-Offensive Operations: UAF maintains active defense across multiple axes, repelling most RF assaults and making localized advances (Pankivka, Zarichne, Dobropillya direction). Specialized brigades (3rd Assault, 95th AAB, 30th Mechanized, 33rd Mechanized, 225th Separate Assault) demonstrate high readiness in ground and drone operations.
• Air Defense Effectiveness: UAF air defense remains highly engaged and effective against mass drone, ballistic, and missile attacks, with high interception rates and successful regional operations. Nationwide air alerts are promptly declared, indicating responsive air defense C2. PPO is actively working in Kyiv Oblast and Kyiv City against multiple UAVs, demonstrating continued effectiveness. KMVA confirms PPO activity in Kyiv. Zelenskyy's statements suggest ongoing strengthening of air defense capabilities. UPDATE: Immediate and widespread alerts for Kalibr launches and rocket danger to the south demonstrate UAF AD systems are tracking these new threats. NEW: UAF Air Force is tracking and reporting on confirmed cruise missile launches from Tu-95s, a Kalibr missile towards Zaporizhzhia, and multiple UAV groups across Vinnytsia, Chernihiv, and Kyiv Oblasts, demonstrating real-time situational awareness and responsiveness.
• Special Operations Capabilities: UAF SOF elements continue to demonstrate high readiness and tactical effectiveness in ground operations, including capturing enemy personnel.
• Tactical Drone Utilization: UAF continues to effectively utilize drones for reconnaissance and strike capabilities, with specialized units (Black Raven, 2nd Mountain Assault Battalion, 414th Brigade, 65th OMBr Ronins) achieving significant tactical successes. Naval drones demonstrate advanced capabilities, though they are subject to RF counter-drone measures.
• Long-Range Precision Strike Capabilities: UAF demonstrates capability for deep strikes into RF territory (oil pumping station, Belgorod) and against critical infrastructure in occupied territories (Zaporizhzhia power outage).
• Recruitment Efforts: Active recruitment by various brigades and regional administrations indicates efforts to strengthen force posture. RF claims of UAF offering 2 million Hryvnia payments and two-year contracts to retain contract soldiers, if true, indicate proactive measures to address personnel retention.
• Strong Presidential Rhetoric: Zelenskyy's strong statements on retaliation for blackouts and engagement with international partners demonstrate clear political resolve and strategic intent.
• Rehabilitation Services: Robust rehabilitation services in Kharkiv demonstrate a commitment to personnel care, positively impacting long-term readiness and morale.
• International Legal Efforts: UAF actively disseminates reports on Russian war crimes, using international legal frameworks to counter RF aggression.
• Moldova Alleged Cooperation: RF claims of Moldova involving SBU for a "forceful scenario" in Transnistria, if true, would indicate a strengthening of regional security cooperation against RF influence. (Confidence: LOW for truth, HIGH for RF claim)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• Successes:
  • High Repel Rate: Successfully repelled a high percentage of RF assaults across multiple axes. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Localized Advances: Confirmed liberation of Pankivka, Zarichne, and advances on the Dobropillya direction. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Effective Air Defense: High success rate against RF UAV attacks, and successful air defense operations in Dnipropetropavsk. PPO active nationwide with prompt alerts for Kinzhal, ballistic, cruise, and now Kalibr missile threats, and currently active in Kyiv Oblast and Kyiv City against UAVs, with confirmed PPO activity. NEW: UAF Air Force providing real-time tracking of new missile and UAV groups. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Capture of RF Personnel: Successful capture of enemy soldiers during ground engagements. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Deep Strikes into RF Territory & ТОТ: Successful UAV attacks on RF oil infrastructure, rocket strikes on Belgorod, and power outage in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Effective Tactical Drone Strikes: Significant successes in FPV drone strikes on Pokrovsk direction and other areas, leading to high RF casualties and equipment destruction. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Counter-Recruitment Success: Shutdown of a Russian recruitment channel in Kenya. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • UAF SOF and Assault Units Successes: Effective engagements by 3rd Assault, 95th AAB, 30th Mechanized, 33rd Mechanized, 225th Separate Assault Brigades. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Setbacks:
  • RF Advances on Multiple Axes: RF claims unverified advances in Volchansk and Kupiansk, along with claimed liberation of Derilovo, Mayske, Stepove, and Dorozhne (Dobropillya area). (Confidence: MEDIUM)
  • Loss of Yunakovka: RF's claimed capture of Yunakovka, Sumy Oblast, if confirmed, represents a significant territorial loss. (Confidence: HIGH for claim, verification pending)
  • Civilian Infrastructure Damage & Casualties (CRITICAL): Continued RF strikes cause significant damage to civilian infrastructure and casualties (Vinnytsia, Sumy, Chernihiv, Konstantinovka, Zaporizhzhia, Khmelnytskyi). Explosions and fire reported in Zaporizhzhia, with images and video confirming damage to a gas station and residential buildings. Casualties in Zaporizhzhia have risen to 3. Confirmed Kinzhal strikes in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. A confirmed impact on a five-story residential building in Solomianskyi district, Kyiv, resulting in partial destruction, along with other damage in the capital, indicates direct and severe impact on civilian areas. NEW: Consequences of drone strikes now confirmed in 4 districts of Kyiv Oblast. UPDATE: Renewed nationwide air alert and confirmed cruise missile launches from strategic bombers, along with massive UAV attacks (Kyiv City, Bila Tserkva, Obukhiv/Ukrainka, Boryspil, Kharkiv, Odesa, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Sumy, Vinnytsia), and now Kalibr missile launches towards Zaporizhzhia and rocket danger to the south indicate high potential for further civilian damage and casualties. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Potential Encirclement: RF claims of encircling UAF units in Synelnykivskyi forest, if verified, would be a severe tactical setback. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
  • UAF Withdrawal from Zarichne (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) Claim: If verified, would be a localized tactical setback. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
  • RF Air Defense Successes: RF's successful interception of numerous UAF UAVs over Russian territory. RF ground units also claim drone shootdowns. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • RF Artillery/MLRS/Ballistic/Cruise/Kalibr Strikes on UAF Assets/Cities: Claimed destruction of UAF howitzers, tanks, and vehicles by RF artillery/drones. Smerch MLRS strikes on Marhanets/Zaporizhzhia. Multiple ballistic missile launches from Crimea. Confirmed cruise missile launches from Tu-95 strategic bombers pose an immediate and significant threat. UPDATE: Kalibr missile launches from the Black Sea, including one now targeting Zaporizhzhia, introduce another potent naval strike threat. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Hungarian Drone Invasion: Documented invasion of Ukrainian airspace by a Hungarian drone. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Captured/Destroyed Ukrainian USV: Capture of a UAF unmanned surface vessel by RF forces, and confirmed destruction of another by Lancet near Crimea. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • RF Claims UAF 95th AAB Destroyed: If verified, RF claims of destroying the 95th AAB near Krasnoarmiysk would be a major UAF setback. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • RF Eliminates UAF SOF Commander: If verified, this would be a significant tactical setback for UAF SOF. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Severe Damage in Konstantinovka: Extensive damage to multi-story residential buildings in Konstantinovka from Russian strikes. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Loss of American MaxxPro IFV: Video evidence of a severely damaged and burning International MaxxPro IFV indicates a combat loss for UAF. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Loss of American M113 APC: Video evidence from RF sources confirms the capture of a damaged US-supplied M113 Armored Personnel Carrier by RF forces in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. This represents a combat loss for UAF. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • High Casualties in RF Units: Accounts from RF units like the 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade detailing significant personnel losses (12 down to 3) suggest effective UAF resistance and high combat intensity. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • NEW - RF Claims Elimination of Azov/Lyut: If verified, RF claims of destroying 10 personnel from Azov and Lyut brigades near Kleban-Byk reservoir would be a significant tactical setback. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (Confidence: HIGH)

• Air Defense Assets: Continued high tempo of RF aerial attacks (UAVs, MLRS, strategic bomber-launched cruise missiles, Kalibr missiles, high-speed targets, Kinzhal from MiG-31K, ballistic missiles from Crimea) necessitates sustained supply of air defense munitions and platforms, particularly for drone and missile defense. The confirmed cruise missile launches from Tu-95s, combined with the MiG-31K, ballistic missile launches, Kalibr launches (including one targeting Zaporizhzhia), and massive UAV deployments (4-7 plus 2 new ones in Bila Tserkva district alone, plus multiple UAVs targeting Kyiv City with confirmed impacts, and other regions, including Sumy, Vinnytsia, Chernihiv Oblasts), highlights an immediate, critical need. Mobile C-UAS systems are continuously required, especially for the ongoing UAV threats to Kyiv, Bila Tserkva, Obukhiv/Ukrainka, Poltava, Kharkiv, Odesa, Kirovohrad, Starokostiantyniv, and Sumy.
• Long-Range Precision Strike Capabilities: UAF relies heavily on Western-supplied and indigenous long-range weapons for deep strikes. Continued support and resupply are critical for maintaining offensive pressure and reciprocal deterrence.
• Munitions and Equipment: Sustained combat operations across multiple axes, including offensive and defensive engagements, require continuous supply of ammunition, artillery shells, FPV drones, and combat vehicles. Losses of equipment like the MaxxPro IFV and M113 APC necessitate replacement. The intensity of ground engagements, as highlighted by RF accounts of high casualties and new claims of UAF personnel/equipment destruction, underscores this need.
• Personnel and Training: Ongoing recruitment efforts, potentially including increased financial incentives as claimed by RF, indicate a need for continuous personnel intake and specialized training for various roles, particularly in UAS and air defense.
• Medical and Rehabilitation Support: The extensive rehabilitation services in Kharkiv underscore the ongoing human cost of the conflict and the need for sustained medical and psychological support for military and civilian casualties. The graphic details of injured RF soldiers also illustrate the constant demand for field medical support.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (Confidence: HIGH)

• RF Propaganda Themes:
  • Victimhood, Destabilization of NATO/EU, Demonization of Ukraine/West, Justification for Aggression/Maximalist Demands, Internal Cohesion/Morale Boosting, Hybrid Warfare Narratives, "Big War" Narrative, Non-Military Propaganda, "Wise Politician" Narrative, Gloating over UAF Setbacks, Regional Destabilization (Moldova/Transnistria), UAF Financial/Personnel Crisis, Western Hypocrisy/Internal Disarray, NATO Cyber War, Russian Technological Prowess. RF continues to push these narratives vigorously, leveraging state media, milbloggers, and diplomatic platforms like the UNGA (where Lavrov is claimed to have "laid low" opponents). The destruction of a UAF USV, MaxxPro IFV, and now M113 APC will be amplified. Unverified intelligence suggesting a "December mobilization" could be an IO effort to test public reaction or deter UAF actions. RF is actively promoting claims of Ukrainian actions in Moldova to sow discord and also framing NATO's involvement in Moldova as "control of logistics." RF claims about UAF struggling to pay soldiers or enticing them with large payments due to budget shortfalls will be used to undermine morale. RF will likely leverage the detention of George Galloway in London on terrorism charges as an example of Western hypocrisy or internal political instability, attempting to deflect from its own actions. RF will heavily leverage the narrative of a "NATO Cyber Headquarters against Russia" to justify its own offensive cyber and hybrid operations. RF sources (Colonelcassad) are amplifying news about China's "most powerful flying wind turbine" in a way that suggests Russian interest in advanced technology and possibly a subtle hint at future military applications, potentially to counter Western technological dominance narratives. RF Interior Ministry reports on cyber fraud may also be framed as a general public security issue to bolster public trust in domestic security while potentially deflecting from state-sponsored cyber threats. RF Deputy Viktor Vodolatsky (TASS) explicitly calls for Ukrainians to "rise up against the Nazi regime, electing another president" to "protect its people and negotiate a peaceful settlement." This is a direct, open call for regime change and political subversion, aiming to foster internal dissent and delegitimize the Ukrainian government. RF is also using videos of "drones evacuating 'wounded'" potentially to project competence and care for personnel. NEW: RF claims of eliminating Azov/Lyut militants near Kleban-Byk reservoir will be amplified to demonstrate combat successes and demoralize UAF. Images of "liquidated AFU servicemen" with US flag chevrons will be used to reinforce the narrative of UAF fighting for "Western interests." The reporting on Polina Agureeva being on the SBU wanted list will be used to portray SBU as persecuting Russian cultural figures.
  • New - Heroism and Sacrifice: RF will amplify stories of combat heroism, such as the account from 'Yakut' of the 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade, to bolster internal morale and portray Russian forces as resilient and dedicated despite high casualties. This narrative will focus on their combat experience and bravery.
• UAF Counter-Propaganda/Information Operations (IO) Themes:
  • Exposing RF Atrocities/War Crimes, Highlighting RF Losses/Weaknesses, Mocking RF Disinformation, Diplomatic Pressure/International Support, Internal Resilience/Morale Boosting, Exposing RF Hybrid Operations, Zelenskyy on Retaliation. UAF actively engages in counter-propaganda, utilizing official channels and social media to expose RF actions, boost morale, and maintain international support. Official reporting of damage and casualties in Zaporizhzhia (e.g., #RUSSIAISATERRORISTSTATE) directly counters RF narratives. Counter-narratives will focus on the confirmed impact in Kyiv (including 4 districts of Kyiv Oblast), civilian casualties, and the illegitimacy of RF's calls for regime change. UAF will also counter RF claims of eliminating Azov/Lyut militants and the narrative of UAF fighting for "Western interests."

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• Ukrainian Public Sentiment (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Resilience and resolve remain strong despite ongoing attacks. Anticipation of attacks leads to preparedness but also sustained psychological strain. Concerns about future international support persist, alongside a strong sense of solidarity with NATO. The current widespread aerial attack, including the Kinzhal threat to Khmelnytskyi, ballistic missile launches, confirmed cruise missile launches from strategic bombers, confirmed Kalibr missile launches (including one targeting Zaporizhzhia), and direct UAV attacks on Kyiv (confirmed impacts in Solomianskyi and Dniprovskyi districts, and consequences in 4 districts of Kyiv Oblast), will severely test this resilience. The renewed nationwide air alert brings renewed anxiety. Casualties in Zaporizhzhia, damage in Khmelnytskyi, and now direct hits in Kyiv will further impact local morale. The massive UAV threat to Kyiv (Bila Tserkva, Obukhiv/Ukrainka, Boryspil) and Kharkiv will cause widespread fear and disruption. RF calls for regime change will be seen as further evidence of RF aggression and an attempt to undermine national unity.
• Russian Public Sentiment (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): Growing discontent is evident regarding fuel shortages, alleged mistreatment of military personnel, and frustration with official narratives. Propaganda continues to shape perceptions, but social tensions and internal dissent are increasingly visible. Unverified intelligence of "December mobilization" could trigger significant public anxiety. "Plan Kovyor" in Penza Oblast, the "air danger" regime in Lipetsk Oblast, and airport restrictions in Kaluga, Penza, Samara, Pskov, Yaroslavl, and Zhukovsky could generate fear or questions about internal security. RF attempts to control information (e.g., through newspaper distribution or driving license revocations) reflect this underlying concern about public sentiment. The new criminal case concerning bribes against the ex-mayor of Krasnoyarsk could fuel public cynicism about corruption. The MVD warning about cyber fraud might also be an attempt to manage public anxiety around security.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments (Confidence: HIGH)

• Continued Western Support (Conditional/Evolving): US military aid remains critical but uncertain depending on political outcomes. European support faces challenges (Hungary's veto). NATO is reinforcing its eastern flank (Sweden/Finland brigade, US Abrams to Estonia, Baltic Sea surveillance). Marco Rubio's statement regarding the Iran nuclear program deal could indicate US diplomatic priorities shifting towards non-European issues.
• RF Diplomatic Offensive: Lavrov's UNGA presence is a platform for RF's geopolitical agenda and narrative shaping, despite low attendance. RF is strengthening non-Western alliances (Iran, India) and exploiting other global crises. RF claims of Lavrov's success at the UNGA reflect internal narrative shaping. Cultural events (Xzibit concerts) may be used for soft power projection. RF Deputy Viktor Vodolatsky's direct political calls for Ukrainians to replace their president could be a prelude to further diplomatic or IO efforts to delegitimize the current Ukrainian government on the international stage.
• International Condemnation/Legal Action: The OSCE report on Russian war crimes increases legal and diplomatic pressure on RF. The detention of George Galloway in London may be leveraged by RF in its anti-Western narratives.
• Moldovan Political Context: RF actively seeks to exploit political instability in Moldova, leveraging internal developments and propagating claims of Moldovan/SBU "forceful scenarios" in Transnistria, and now claiming NATO bases in Moldova for "logistic control." This is a significant escalation of IO regarding Moldova.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(Confidence: HIGH) RF will continue multi-axis ground pressure across the Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetropavsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy axes. The immediate priority will be to contain and roll back any UAF tactical gains in the Dobropillya salient, specifically focusing on Dorozhne and surrounding areas, to prevent an encirclement of its forward-deployed units. RF will persist in attempting to consolidate and expand its claimed territorial gains in Derilovo, Mayske (DNR), and Stepove (Dnipropetropavsk Oblast), potentially leveraging successes like the capture of the UAF M113 APC and alleged elimination of Azov/Lyut militants near Kleban-Byk reservoir. Offensive operations in the Huliaipilske direction will likely intensify, aimed at regaining lost positions or testing UAF defenses. Reconnaissance and probing attacks from the Yunakovka bridgehead in Sumy Oblast will continue to fix UAF forces, but a large-scale offensive here is less likely in the immediate 24-48 hours given the focus on Dobropillya and the ongoing widespread aerial campaign. RF units will likely continue localized storming operations, accepting high casualties if tactical objectives are deemed sufficiently important. The threat of aviation strike assets (КАБ/FAB) will persist for the Pokrovsk and Kupiansk directions and intensify for Sumy Oblast.

(Confidence: HIGH) RF is currently executing and will continue a focused, high-intensity aerial strike campaign. This will primarily target critical energy infrastructure, airfields (e.g., Starokonstantyniv), and urban centers, particularly Kyiv City (with confirmed impacts, and consequences in 4 districts of Kyiv Oblast), Bila Tserkva (with new UAVs), Obukhiv/Ukrainka, Kharkiv, Vinnytsia (with new UAVs), Chernihiv (with 23 UAVs heading towards Kyiv), Zaporizhzhia (with Kalibr missile and high-speed target), Poltava (with confirmed cruise missiles), Khmelnytskyi, and potentially Dnipro, Odesa, and Kirovohrad. This strike will heavily utilize UAVs (Shaheds/Gerans, including the 4-7 plus 2 new UAVs in Bila Tserkva district, multiple directly targeting Kyiv, Kharkiv city, the ~50 UAVs heading towards Odesa/Kirovohrad, 23 UAVs towards Haisyn, and a UAV towards Starokostiantyniv, plus new groups from Sumy Oblast). The confirmed cruise missile launches from Tu-95 strategic bombers near Engels (via Sumy/Chernihiv towards Poltava/Cherkasy), in addition to previously reported Kinzhal, ballistic missile launches, and now Kalibr missile launches from the Black Sea (one targeting Zaporizhzhia), indicate a renewed and extremely dangerous phase of the widespread air campaign. MLRS (Smerch) and high-speed targets will also be used, aiming for widespread disruption and psychological impact ahead of winter. RF air defenses in border regions (Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk, Penza, Lipetsk, Kaluga, Samara, Pskov, Yaroslavl, Zhukovsky) will remain on high alert to counter UAF deep strikes, as evidenced by recent interceptions, "Plan Kovyor" activation, and airspace restrictions.

(Confidence: HIGH) RF will escalate hybrid operations against NATO member states, likely continuing drone overflights or disruptive activities targeting sensitive military and civilian infrastructure in the Baltic Sea region (Denmark, Lithuania, Norway, Netherlands, Germany), and possibly expanding to new regions. Concurrently, RF will intensify its information operations, focusing on:

1. Denying responsibility for provocations against NATO and shifting blame, leveraging the "NATO Cyber Headquarters against Russia" narrative.
2. Amplifying narratives of NATO/EU disunity and portraying Western nations as aggressive or subservient to the US, leveraging statements from figures like Orban and promoting antisemitic propaganda to sow division, potentially exploiting events like the detention of George Galloway.
3. Undermining Ukraine's legitimacy and morale, particularly through narratives of "atrocities," "tightening mobilization," and denying territorial integrity, and focusing on perceived UAF financial/personal issues. RF will also likely highlight perceived RF military heroism and resilience, such as the combat experiences of the 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade, claims of eliminating Azov/Lyut militants, and potentially use "drone medical evacuations" as a soft power/morale-boosting narrative. RF will aggressively push for regime change in Ukraine through IO, as evidenced by Deputy Vodolatsky's statements and the amplification of images of "liquidated AFU servicemen" with US flag chevrons. RF will also use the SBU wanted list for Russian actress Polina Agureeva as a point of criticism.
4. Promoting RF's diplomatic narrative of being open to talks on "root causes" while maintaining maximalist demands for Ukraine's demilitarization and territorial concessions.
5. Exploiting regional tensions, specifically amplifying claims about Moldova and SBU involvement in Transnistria, and now alleging NATO bases in Moldova for "logistic control," to sow instability and distract from ongoing events in Ukraine.
6. Highlighting RF/Chinese technological advancements (e.g., "flying wind turbine") to counter Western technological dominance narratives and project strength.
7. Domestic warnings on cyber security (MVD report) will be used to demonstrate government concern for its citizens, possibly deflecting from state-sponsored cyber activities.

(Confidence: HIGH) RF will continue its efforts to financially integrate occupied Ukrainian territories through mechanisms like the "digital ruble," aiming to solidify administrative control. Internal RF domestic policies, such as combining medical and МВД databases for driving license revocations, will continue to be implemented, indicating an increasing effort to control civilian life. Efforts to combat internal corruption, like the Krasnoyarsk bribery case, may be highlighted to project an image of internal order.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(Confidence: MEDIUM) RF assesses that NATO's response to the escalating drone provocations and the current geopolitical climate (China's demands, Israeli conflict) is weak and launches a coordinated, large-scale multi-domain offensive operation:

1. Ground Offensive: RF commits significant operational reserves (including forces currently fixing UAF in other sectors) to violently crush the UAF salient at Dobropillya, aiming for a decisive encirclement and destruction of UAF units. Simultaneously, a secondary major ground assault is launched from the Yunakovka bridgehead towards Sumy City, employing armored thrusts and airborne elements, designed to open a new operational front and stretch UAF defenses to their breaking point. This would involve a significant disregard for personnel losses in pursuit of strategic objectives. RF will also launch simultaneous ground assaults in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, leveraging recent tactical gains like the capture of the M113 APC and claimed elimination of Azov/Lyut militants near Kleban-Byk reservoir.
2. Air/Missile Offensive: Building on the currently executing "massive strike" with confirmed cruise missile launches, RF unleashes a catastrophic, prolonged missile and drone campaign against Kyiv and all major Ukrainian population centers, targeting all remaining government infrastructure, critical air defense systems, and the entire energy grid, aimed at causing widespread collapse, societal paralysis, and a complete, irreversible blackout. This strike would utilize all available strategic bombers (7 Tu-95MS, Tu-160) with sustained cruise missile launches, hypersonic (Kinzhal from MiG-31K), ballistic (from Crimea), Kalibr (from Black Sea platforms, including one confirmed towards Zaporizhzhia), and conventional ballistic missiles, alongside mass drone swarm attacks (including the 4-7 plus 2 new UAVs in Bila Tserkva district, multiple towards Kyiv with confirmed impacts and 23 UAVs from Chernihiv, Kharkiv, the ~50 UAVs now active and the newly identified groups from northern Sumy and Vinnytsia), and active Smerch MLRS and high-speed targets, launched from multiple vectors, to overwhelm UAF air defenses. This would involve rapid re-arming and re-launch of strategic assets previously involved in the initial wave, sustained over 24-48 hours.
3. Hybrid Warfare Escalation: Concurrently, RF launches coordinated cyberattacks against NATO critical infrastructure (energy, financial systems, transportation, military C2), coupled with drone swarm attacks against multiple sensitive military installations within NATO territory (e.g., airbases, command centers) and strategic infrastructure (e.g., ports, airports), aimed at overwhelming NATO response capabilities and directly challenging the credibility of Article 5. RF also conducts covert sabotage operations against critical infrastructure in Western Europe, potentially including acts of terrorism in response to perceived UAF provocations in NATO countries. RF exploits the Moldovan political instability and its fabricated "forceful scenario" narrative, now compounded by claims of NATO bases in Moldova, to further destabilize the country, potentially creating a new flashpoint and diverting international attention. RF launches overt and covert efforts to destabilize the Ukrainian government, leveraging IO to call for regime change and foment internal unrest, coinciding with the military offensive.

This MDCOA would be designed to shatter UAF command and control, force a catastrophic choice on the allocation of strategic reserves, and directly challenge NATO's deterrence posture, potentially initiating a broader conflict, while simultaneously aiming to achieve a decisive victory in Ukraine before international response can fully materialize.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Immediate (0-6 hours - CRITICAL, ACTIVELY UNFOLDING):
  • Decision Point: UAF must decide on rapid reinforcement or tactical withdrawal in the Dobropillya salient if RF counter-attacks are successful. CRITICAL: UAF Air Command is currently making immediate decisions regarding the deployment of interceptors, activation of additional air defense systems, and potential dispersal of high-value assets in response to the ongoing widespread UAV, MLRS, high-speed threats, confirmed cruise missile launches from Tu-95 strategic bombers, Kalibr missile launches (including one targeting Zaporizhzhia), and rocket danger to the south. This specifically targets Kyiv (with confirmed impacts, and new UAV groups towards Boryspil, Bila Tserkva, Obukhiv/Ukrainka, with 23 UAVs now in Chernihiv heading for Kyiv), Poltava, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Marhanets, Kharkiv (including city), Pokrovsk, Kupiansk (aviation strike assets), Sumy Oblast (new UAV groups, КАБ launches, and now confirmed cruise missiles), Vinnytsia Oblast (new UAV groups), and other regions, including Starokostiantyniv. The renewed nationwide alert demands immediate and adaptive AD.
  • Timeline: RF ground forces will attempt to stabilize or exploit the Dobropillya situation, and continue localized engagements in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Continued, intense RF aerial activity (UAVs, cruise missiles, Kalibrs, KABs) can be expected across eastern, northern, central, and southern Ukraine.
• Near-Term (6-48 hours):
  • Decision Point: UAF High Command must decide on the level of response to the current widespread RF aerial strikes and further RF territorial gains in Dnipropetropavsk/Donetsk, as well as any escalation of hybrid attacks against NATO. UAF must decide on resource allocation for emergency services and infrastructure repair following the current attacks, especially in Zaporizhzhia, Khmelnytskyi, and now Kyiv.
  • Timeline: Intensified RF ground operations are likely in Dobropillya and Huliaipilske directions. Post-strike Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for Kinzhal/ballistic/cruise/Kalibr strikes will be critical to inform recovery and defensive operations. NATO allies will likely convene urgent consultations regarding RF hybrid operations and the potential for Article 5 implications. Continued RF information operations regarding Moldova, UAF financial issues, the "NATO Cyber Headquarters," and calls for regime change in Ukraine are expected.

6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. IMMEDIATE AIR DEFENSE ACTIVATION & CIVILIAN ALERT (CRITICAL MULTI-VECTOR THREAT): All available air defense systems must be at their highest readiness level and actively engaged against the persistent and multi-vector threats, now including confirmed cruise missile launches from Tu-95 strategic bombers and confirmed Kalibr missile launches from the Black Sea (one targeting Zaporizhzhia). Continue to disseminate immediate, urgent civilian air raid alerts nationwide, especially for Vinnytsia, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Dnipro, Odesa, Kropyvnytskyi, Marhanets, Uman, Zvenyhorod, Haisyn, Nizhyn, Khmelnytskyi (Starokostiantyniv), **Kyiv (Kyiv City, Bila Tserkva, Obukhiv/Ukrainka, Boryspil), Kharkiv (city), Sumy Oblast, and the southern direction. Prioritize mobile C-UAS and missile interceptor deployment to protect critical energy infrastructure and population centers from current and anticipated follow-on strikes. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE - GIVEN ONGOING MISSILE AND UAV THREATS)
2. ISR Re-tasking (BDA, Strategic Asset Status, UAV Tracking & New UAV Vectors, Aviation Strike Threat, Kalibr Launches, M113 APC Loss, Kleban-Byk claims): Prioritize all available ISR assets (HUMINT, SIGINT, IMINT, OSINT verification) to immediately confirm the extent of UAF breakthroughs or RF consolidation around Dobropillya. Simultaneously, dedicate all available ISR to conduct immediate BDA for Kinzhal strikes in Khmelnytskyi, identify origins/targets of ballistic missiles from Crimea, urgently confirm impact points and damage from confirmed cruise missile launches from Tu-95s, and track and conduct BDA for Kalibr missile launches from Myskhako Cape (Black Sea) and the specific Kalibr targeting Zaporizhzhia, and other rocket threats to the south. Focus on real-time tracking of current UAV, MLRS, and high-speed missile trajectories, especially the 4-7 plus 2 new UAVs in Bila Tserkva district, multiple UAVs targeting Kyiv (including Boryspil, with confirmed impacts, and the 23 UAVs from Chernihiv) and Kharkiv, the ~50 UAVs now active from Mykolaiv/Kherson, the multiple UAVs targeting Poltava and Starokostiantyniv, and new UAV groups and КАБ launches in Sumy Oblast and new UAVs in Vinnytsia Oblast. Provide immediate updates on any observed aviation strike assets (КАБ/FAB) threatening Pokrovsk and Kupiansk. Confirm details of the captured UAF M113 APC in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Urgently verify RF claims of eliminating Azov/Lyut militants and equipment near Kleban-Byk reservoir. Provide real-time updates to tactical and strategic commanders. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
3. Enhanced Cross-Border Threat Assessment (Sumy/Kharkiv & Transnistria): Elevate threat assessment for renewed RF ground offensive in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Position mobile reserves and conduct pre-emptive artillery strikes on suspected RF staging areas/logistics near Yunakovka or Volchansk. Continue monitoring of "Plan Kovyor" activation in Penza Oblast, the "air danger" regime in Lipetsk Oblast, and airspace restrictions in Kaluga, Penza, Samara, Pskov, Yaroslavl, Zhukovsky for insights into RF domestic air defense posture and potential logistical vulnerabilities. Concurrently, intensify monitoring of the Transnistria region for any unusual troop movements or heightened rhetoric following RF claims of Moldovan/SBU involvement and alleged NATO bases for "logistic control." (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
4. Strengthen Counter-Hybrid Defenses & NATO Coordination: Share all available intelligence on RF drone capabilities and tactics (e.g., swarm attacks, drone types from Norwegian/Dutch incidents, Lancet USV destruction) with NATO partners. Urgently request heightened electronic warfare support and shared air domain awareness. Implement enhanced physical security protocols around critical infrastructure nationwide, including against potential RF covert sabotage. Proactively counter RF narratives about "NATO Cyber Headquarters against Russia" by highlighting RF's own aggressive cyber and hybrid operations. (CRITICAL/HIGH)
5. Proactive Information Warfare Counter-Narratives: Develop and immediately disseminate proactive counter-narratives to RF propaganda, specifically addressing Orban's anti-Ukraine rhetoric, the antisemitic cartoon, RF gloating over Chernihiv blackouts, the destruction of the UAF USV, MaxxPro IFV, and M113 APC, the detention of George Galloway, RF claims regarding UAF financial/personal issues, and especially RF claims regarding Moldova and SBU in Transnistria, the new narrative of NATO bases for "logistic control," RF Deputy Vodolatsky's calls for regime change in Ukraine, RF claims of eliminating Azov/Lyut militants, the images of "liquidated AFU servicemen" with US flag chevrons, and the reporting on Polina Agureeva. Counter RF narratives of military heroism by highlighting the high cost in personnel losses for RF units and the indiscriminate targeting of civilians in Kyiv (including 4 districts of Kyiv Oblast). Leverage the MVD cyber fraud report to highlight internal RF vulnerabilities and lack of capacity to protect its own citizens. Focus on fact-based reporting, highlighting RF's own internal struggles, and emphasizing Ukrainian resilience. Monitor and counter any RF IO related to an unverified "December mobilization." (HIGH)
6. Resource Prioritization (Long-Range Precision Strike & Air Defense): Advocate forcefully for the immediate delivery of Western long-range precision strike capabilities and additional modern air defense systems (including Patriots). Highlight their proven effectiveness against RF logistics and critical infrastructure. The current wave of cruise missile, Kalibr, and drone attacks, particularly the direct impacts in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia, underscores this urgent requirement. (HIGH)
7. Monitor RF Logistics & Internal Dissension: Intensify ISR on fuel and transportation networks within Lipetsk, Sevastopol, and other RF regions. Monitor for signs of increased public discontent (e.g., Putin's reception queues, impact of Krasnoyarsk bribery case) that could impact RF's ability to sustain operations. Target vulnerable logistics nodes. Address any confirmed impact from a potential "December mobilization" on RF morale. Track implementation and impact of RF's new driving license revocation policy and the expanded airport restrictions. (MEDIUM)
8. Target RF C2: Continue to prioritize targeting RF command and control nodes, especially UAV C2 points and command posts overseeing ground offensives. Precision strikes on these targets directly degrade RF's ability to coordinate adaptive operations and mitigate the impact of continued high-casualty ground operations. (HIGH)