Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT - 280057Z SEP 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current operational picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (Confidence: HIGH)

RF forces maintain multi-axis pressure across the Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetropavsk, and Zaporizhzhia axes. Heavy reciprocal battles continue in Sumy Oblast. RF claims recent unverified advances in Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, and the occupation of the medical college area in Kupiansk. RF also claims a 5km advance on the Gulyaipole direction, entering Novoivanivka, and new positions south of Novoivanivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF claims full control of Serebryansky forestry and the liberation of Berëzovoye, Kalynivske (UAF denies Kalynivske), Derilovo, Mayske in DNR, and Stepove in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. RF continues to claim an offensive behind Chasiv Yar. UAF has confirmed the liberation of Pankivka, Donetsk Oblast, and Zarichne, and reports eliminating a Russian breakthrough near Pokrovsk. Heavy fighting continues on the Krasnolimanskoye direction. UAF General Staff reports over 95 combat engagements in the last 24 hours, repelling the majority of RF assaults across multiple axes, particularly Kupiansk (18/19 repelled), Lyman (10 repelled), Pokrovsk (15 repelled), Vremivka (9 repelled), and Orikhiv (8 repelled). UAF reports advances on the Dobropillya direction, having liberated 164.5 sq. km. Zelenskyy claims 360 sq. km liberated by Ukrainian forces in recent weeks, and approximately 1,000 Russian servicemen captured. DeepState map updated, indicating ongoing positional changes. RF sources claim a breakthrough on the border of Dnipropetropavsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and RF claims liberation of Dorozhne (Dobropillya area), contradicting earlier RF claims of UAF breakthroughs there.

Recent Updates:

• NEW - RF Strategic Bomber Missile Launches Confirmed: (Confidence: HIGH) Pre-launch maneuvers of all Tu-95 strategic bombers near Engels have been completed, and the Ukrainian Air Force reports probable launches of cruise missiles. This indicates a renewed phase of high-end missile strikes. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України, РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
• NEW - RF UAVs Towards Odesa/Kirovohrad: (Confidence: HIGH) Approximately 50 UAVs reported across Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts, heading towards Odesa and Kirovohrad Oblasts. Threat of strike UAVs in Uman, Zvenyhorod, Haisyn (Cherkasy/Vinnytsia Oblasts) and Nizhyn (Chernihiv Oblast) districts. Approximately 23 UAVs are moving towards/through Haisyn, indicating a concentrated threat. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Николаевский Ванёк)
• NEW - RF UAVs Targeting Kharkiv City: (Confidence: HIGH) UAV detected in central and western Kharkiv Oblast, moving west, and another one towards Kharkiv city. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України)
• NEW - RF Air Threat to Pokrovsk & Kupiansk: (Confidence: HIGH) Aviation strike assets (КАБ/FAB) are reported as a threat for the Pokrovsk and Kupiansk directions. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України)
• NEW - Large RF UAV Group Near Bila Tserkva: (Confidence: HIGH) Approximately 60 UAVs are reported in the Bila Tserkva district, Kyiv Oblast. Three UAVs are specifically heading towards Bila Tserkva, with two on approach. Five UAVs are also reported towards/through Obukhiv/Ukrainka. This constitutes a significant and immediate threat to Kyiv Oblast. (Николаевский Ванёк)
• NEW - RF UAVs Over Kyiv Oblast (Active PPO): (Confidence: HIGH) UAVs are confirmed in Kyiv Oblast, with active air defense (PPO) working. One UAV has already passed Boryspil and is heading towards Kyiv. (РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Сили ЗС України)
• UPDATE - Nationwide Air Alert Re-Issued: (Confidence: HIGH) The nationwide air alert, which was partially lifted, is now being re-issued in response to renewed strategic bomber activity and missile launches. This indicates a dynamic and immediate high-threat environment. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України)
• UPDATE - Zaporizhzhia Casualties and Damage: (Confidence: HIGH) Video and photo evidence from Zaporizhzhia confirms widespread destruction to civilian infrastructure including residential buildings and a gas station following RF attacks. The number of injured has increased to 3. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, РБК-Україна)
• UPDATE - RF Airspace Restrictions (Kaluga, Penza, Samara): (Confidence: HIGH) Temporary restrictions on aircraft arrivals and departures have been introduced at airports in Kaluga, Penza, and Samara, RF. This likely indicates domestic air defense activity or security measures in response to perceived threats. (ТАСС)
• UPDATE - RF Air Alert in Lipetsk Oblast: (Confidence: HIGH) Air danger regime introduced across the entire Lipetsk Oblast, RF, possibly related to MiG-31K launches. (Игорь Артамонов)
• UPDATE - RF UAV Towards Poltava: (Confidence: HIGH) UAV detected moving towards Poltava, one Shahed confirmed. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України, Николаевский Ванёк)
• UPDATE - RF Lancet Destroys UAF USV near Crimea: (Confidence: HIGH) Video evidence confirms an RF Lancet loitering munition destroyed a Ukrainian unmanned surface vessel near the coast of Crimea. (Colonelcassad)
• UPDATE - "Plan Kovyor" Activated in Penza Oblast, RF: (Confidence: HIGH) Governor reports activation of "Plan Kovyor" (Carpet Plan), indicating potential air threat or airspace restriction. (ТАСС)
• UPDATE - Damaged American International MaxxPro IFV: (Confidence: HIGH) Video footage confirms a severely damaged and burning American International MaxxPro infantry fighting vehicle in a muddy field. This indicates ongoing combat losses for UAF and effective RF targeting. (Colonelcassad)
• PREVIOUS - Nationwide Air Alert, Kinzhal Launches towards Khmelnytskyi Oblast: (Confidence: HIGH) A nationwide air raid alert was declared. RF MiG-31K aircraft, launching "Kinzhal" aeroballistic missiles from the Lipetsk Oblast area, were confirmed to be targeting Khmelnytskyi Oblast, with explosions reported in the region. Two Kinzhal missiles were reportedly approaching Starokonstantyniv (Starkon). (РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Повітряні Сили ЗС України) STATUS: Alert for Kinzhal was partially lifted, but is now part of the renewed nationwide alert.
• PREVIOUS - Ballistic Missile Launches from Crimea: (Confidence: HIGH) Multiple ballistic missile launches from Crimea were reported. (Николаевский Ванёк) STATUS: Alert for ballistic missiles was partially lifted, but is now part of the renewed nationwide alert.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (Confidence: HIGH)

Current conditions are generally clear and favorable for air operations across most of Ukraine. A cold snap is expected, with wet snow possible in Moscow by end of week, and temperatures dropping to -2°C in the Carpathians with possible snow soon. The strongest geomagnetic storm in 3 months (G3) continues to impact satellite communications and GPS for both sides. Freezing temperatures are forecast for five regions of the Russian Federation by the end of September. RF continues to target critical energy infrastructure, resulting in widespread power outages in Chernihiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Extensive urban damage has been reported in Zaporizhzhia, Vinnytsia, Sumy, and Konstantinovka (Donetsk Oblast) due to RF strikes. UAF deep strikes against RF oil infrastructure (Chuvashia) and rocket strikes on Belgorod also cause environmental and structural damage.

Recent Impacts:

• UPDATE - Damage Assessment in Zaporizhzhia: (Confidence: HIGH) Images and video confirm significant damage to civilian infrastructure (gas station, residential buildings) in Zaporizhzhia following RF strikes. At least four strikes impacted the city. Casualties have risen to 3. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, РБК-Україна)
• UPDATE - RF Military Medical Scenario in Woodland: (Confidence: HIGH) Video depicts a field medical scenario in a woodland environment, likely during a military operation, showing personnel providing immediate medical assistance to a wounded individual. This highlights the harsh environmental conditions of combat and ongoing casualties.
• UPDATE - Damaged MaxxPro IFV: (Confidence: HIGH) Video shows a severely damaged and burning International MaxxPro armored vehicle in a muddy field, indicative of recent combat and adverse terrain conditions. (Colonelcassad)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (Confidence: HIGH)

RF Forces:

• Ground Operations: RF maintains offensive pressure on multiple axes (Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetropavsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Kharkiv, Konstantinovka, Slaviansk, Krasnoarmiisk, Druzhkovka, Huliaipilske). Confirmed and claimed gains continue (Berëzovoye, Kalynivske, Pereyezdnoye, Novoivanivka, Yunakovka, Shandyryholove, Derilovo, Mayske, Stepove, Dorozhne). RF claims recent advances in Volchansk and is conducting "meat motorcycle storms." RF MoD confirms Akhmat Spetsnaz activity in Kharkiv. RF MoD proposes changes to the mobilization disease list, indicating potential adjustments to personnel intake. RF's "Manul" battalion assault troops claim to have shot down an enemy drone. RF 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade 'Sv. George' is engaged in reconnaissance and storming operations, highlighting sustained ground combat and significant casualties.
• Air Activity: RF continues large-scale drone (Shaheds, "Geran-2") and КАБ/FAB strikes, particularly on Chernihiv, Sumy, and Donetsk Oblasts. RF reconnaissance UAVs are active across multiple northern and eastern oblasts. RF PVO claims shooting down a total of 19 Ukrainian UAVs over Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk Oblasts, and 11 more over Rostov, Belgorod, and Kursk. A "massive strike" on Ukrainian objects was being prepared, with Tu-95MS and Tu-160 strategic bombers confirmed airborne (now 7 Tu-95MS). Multiple UAVs were targeting Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv (alert re-declared), Poltava, and eastern/western Kharkiv/Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Smerch MLRS strikes reported on Marhanets/Zaporizhzhia. High-speed targets also reported. "Plan Kovyor" activated in Penza Oblast, indicating possible domestic air defense activity or response to UAF deep strikes. New groups of UAVs are heading southwest from northern Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, with one now moving from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv Oblast. NEW: Multiple UAVs are now confirmed heading towards Kyiv, including 6 towards/through Boryspil, and strike UAVs in Poltava Oblast. NEW: Nationwide air alerts are being gradually lifted, indicating the immediate threat from strategic bombers and Kinzhal missiles may have passed, though UAV threats persist. RF MiG-31K, carrier of the "Kinzhal" missile, launched Kinzhals towards Khmelnytskyi Oblast, with explosions reported. Multiple ballistic missile launches from Crimea. RF has also declared an air danger regime in Lipetsk Oblast, RF. Temporary airspace restrictions in Kaluga, Penza, and Samara airports. NEW: Air alerts are now re-issued nationwide, with probable cruise missile launches from Tu-95s near Engels, and a significant concentration of ~60 UAVs in Bila Tserkva district, Kyiv Oblast, with multiple UAVs targeting Kyiv (including one passing Boryspil) and Kharkiv. Air threat from aviation strike assets is also present for Pokrovsk and Kupiansk directions.
• Naval Activity: RF naval vessels are actively operating near critical infrastructure (Tuapse) and are engaged in counter-drone measures. RF Lancet drones are being used for naval strikes, successfully destroying a UAF USV near Crimea.
• Logistics: The transfer of a railway section from Iran to RF indicates strategic logistical development. RF continues to experience fuel shortages in Lipetsk and Sevastopol, and relies on fundraising for certain military provisions.
• Control Measures: RF has strengthened criminal liability for "foreign agents" and is implementing social policies. RF leadership continues diplomatic engagements. RF is taking steps to control information and narratives, including through figures like Lavrov at the UNGA, who is claimed to have "laid low" Western proponents. RF is also using its "digital ruble" in occupied territories. RF is combining medical and МВД databases to revoke driving licenses for individuals with dangerous diseases. RF communal companies are prohibited from using collectors for debt recovery. A new criminal case concerning bribes against the ex-mayor of Krasnoyarsk, Vladislav Loginov, with seven new defendants, highlights ongoing internal issues and corruption.

UAF Forces:

• Ground Operations: UAF maintains an active defensive posture, repelling the majority of RF assaults. UAF reports localized advances in the Dobropillya direction and confirmed liberation of Pankivka and Zarichne. UAF 3rd Assault, 95th Air Assault, 30th Mechanized, 33rd Mechanized, and 225th Separate Assault (Black Swan) Brigades are actively engaged, including clearing wooded areas, capturing RF personnel, and conducting drone strikes. UAF Special Operations Forces are also conducting effective strikes.
• Air Defense: UAF maintains a robust and responsive air defense network, successfully repelling a high percentage of RF UAV attacks and conducting successful operations in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. UAF continues to issue air raid alerts, with alerts currently active nationwide due to UAV, high-speed target, ballistic missile, and MiG-31K threats. PVO is actively engaged, with the Kyiv air alert recently re-declared and explosions reported in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. NEW: Air alerts are now being re-issued across Ukraine in response to cruise missile launches from Tu-95s, and PPO is actively working in Kyiv Oblast against multiple UAVs, including a large group in Bila Tserkva district.
• Tactical Drone Utilization: UAF continues to utilize drones for both reconnaissance and strike capabilities, as evidenced by FPV drone strikes on the Pokrovsk direction (Black Raven, 2nd Mountain Assault Battalion, 414th Brigade of UAVs) and the 30th Mechanized Brigade. UAF Naval drones are also operating effectively near RF naval infrastructure, though one was recently destroyed by an RF Lancet. UAF 65th OMBr Ronins successfully struck a Buk SAM PSU and logistics targets.
• Deep Strike Capabilities: UAF continues to demonstrate long-range precision strike capabilities against RF infrastructure (oil pumping station in Chuvashia) and military targets (Belgorod rocket strikes, destroyed RF logistics trucks). Zaporizhzhia Oblast experienced a power outage due to UAF attacks on energy facilities.
• Recruitment/Sustainment: UAF 26th Artillery Brigade is actively recruiting, and public support for veterans' rehabilitation and drone programs is ongoing. RF sources claim UAF authorities are promising 2 million Hryvnia payments and two-year contracts to retain contract soldiers, indicating UAF efforts to boost recruitment and retention.
• International Engagement: Zelenskyy's office and KMVA are actively engaged in UN General Assembly diplomacy. Zelenskyy maintains strong rhetoric on controlled weapon exports and potential retaliation for RF blackouts. Moldova is allegedly involving SBU for a силового сценария (forceful scenario) in Transnistria.

1.4. Intelligence Gaps and Collection Requirements

• RF Cruise Missile BDA (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE): Urgently conduct Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the probable cruise missile launches from Tu-95s near Engels. Determine specific targets hit, extent of damage, and casualties. This is a primary concern given the renewed nationwide alert. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF Widespread UAV Threat Assessment (Kyiv, Bila Tserkva, Obukhiv/Ukrainka, Kharkiv, Odesa, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Chernihiv, Poltava Oblasts) (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE): Urgently determine the specific types, origins, and intended targets of the approximately 60 UAVs in Bila Tserkva district, the UAVs targeting Kyiv (including Boryspil), Kharkiv city, the ~50 UAVs across Mykolaiv/Kherson towards Odesa/Kirovohrad, the 23 UAVs towards Haisyn, and strike UAVs in Poltava. Assess immediate threat to critical infrastructure, UAF forces, and civilian populations. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF Aviation Strike Asset Confirmation (Pokrovsk/Kupiansk) (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE): Confirm the deployment and specific targets of RF aviation strike assets (КАБ/FAB) threatening the Pokrovsk and Kupiansk directions. Assess immediate risk to UAF ground forces and critical infrastructure. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF Kinzhal/Ballistic Strike BDA (Updated - CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE): Urgently conduct Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) in Khmelnytskyi Oblast following confirmed Kinzhal strikes and other regions following ballistic missile launches from Crimea. Determine specific targets hit (military infrastructure, airfields, civilian infrastructure), extent of damage, and casualties. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• UAF Breakthrough/RF Control Dobropillya Salient (CRITICAL): Urgent and independent verification is required for the conflicting claims regarding the Dobropillya salient: the earlier RF claim of a UAF breakthrough and potential encirclement, and the newer RF claim of liberating Dorozhne. This is paramount to understanding the tactical situation. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Synelnykivskyi Forest Encirclement Verification (CRITICAL): Urgent and independent verification is required for the RF (TASS) claim that UAF units are encircled in the Synelnykivskyi forest, Kharkiv Oblast, and have been abandoned by command. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Shandyryholove RF Advance Verification (CRITICAL): Urgent and independent verification is required for the RF (TASS via Marochko) claim that UAF forces have left Shandyryholove, DNR, and RF forces are conducting clearance operations. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Derilovo, Mayske, Stepove RF Control Verification (CRITICAL): Urgent and independent verification is required for the RF (MoD, TASS, Военкор Котенок, Операция Z, MoD Russia, Басурин о главном) claim of liberation and control over Derilovo and Mayske in DNR, and Stepove in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Lipetsk/Sevastopol Fuel Crisis Impact Assessment (CRITICAL): Urgent assessment is needed for the extent and impact of the fuel crisis in Lipetsk and Sevastopol Oblasts on both civilian and military logistics. Monitor RF "air danger" regime in Lipetsk Oblast. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast Power Outage BDA (CRITICAL): Conduct immediate Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the UAF attack on energy facilities in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Verify targets, extent of damage, and the duration/scale of the power outage. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Penza, Kaluga, Samara Airspace Restrictions Rationale: (Confidence: MEDIUM) Determine the specific reason for activating temporary airspace restrictions in Kaluga, Penza, and Samara airports. Is this a response to a perceived UAF drone threat, internal security concern, or a training exercise?
• Moldova/Transnistria "Forceful Scenario" Verification: (Confidence: MEDIUM) Investigate RF claims of Moldova involving SBU for a "forceful scenario" in Transnistria. Assess potential for renewed tensions or escalation in the region. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
• RF "Manul" Battalion Drone Engagement Verification: (Confidence: MEDIUM) Verify the claim by RF's "Manul" battalion of shooting down an enemy drone. Identify the type of drone and potential impact on UAF ISR capabilities.
• RF 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade Battle Damage Assessment: (Confidence: MEDIUM) Verify the reported high casualty rates (12 down to 3) in the 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade and assess the impact on their combat effectiveness and morale.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (Confidence: HIGH)

Capabilities:

• Persistent Mass Aerial Strike Capability (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF maintains an extremely high capability for large-scale, coordinated UAV, guided bomb (КАБ/FAB), MLRS (Smerch), ballistic, and missile attacks across Ukraine. This includes confirmed "Kinzhal" launches from MiG-31K, multiple ballistic missile launches from Crimea, and now probable cruise missile launches from Tu-95 strategic bombers near Engels, and a significant concentration of ~60 UAVs in Kyiv Oblast alone. RF air defenses remain active and effective in intercepting UAF drones over Russian territory and are reacting to domestic airspace threats ("Plan Kovyor" in Penza Oblast, "air danger" in Lipetsk Oblast, and airspace restrictions in Kaluga, Penza, Samara). Demonstrated ability to shoot down UAF drones by ground units (Manul battalion).
• RF Mine Warfare Capabilities: RF maintains a robust and adapting combat engineering capability, employing new methods of mining and demining.
• IO/PsyOps Capabilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF demonstrates advanced and adaptive capabilities in information operations, including false-flag narratives, symbolic gestures, exploiting perceived NATO divisions, and demonizing Ukraine. This is evidenced by Lavrov's statements at UNGA, Orban's anti-Ukraine rhetoric, and antisemitic propaganda. RF is actively using channels like "Военкоры Русской Весны" to push narratives (e.g., Moldova/SBU in Transnistria, UAF salary issues).
• Targeted UAV Warfare Capabilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF maintains structured efforts to enhance drone warfare capabilities, including direct recruitment for specialized UAV battalions and advanced counter-UAV systems like the "Flying Dutchman." Demonstrated capability to use Lancet loitering munitions against UAF naval drones. The sheer volume of UAVs (60 in Bila Tserkva district, ~50 towards Odesa/Kirovohrad, multiple towards Kyiv, Kharkiv) underscores this capability.
• Financial Control Mechanisms for ТОТ (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF's implementation of the "digital ruble" in occupied territories indicates a new capability to exert financial and economic control.
• Counter-Battery and Counter-Armor Capabilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF continues to demonstrate effective counter-battery and counter-armor capabilities through artillery and drone strikes, including targeting moving vehicles and Western-supplied equipment. MLRS (Smerch) are being actively used. Confirmed destruction of UAF MaxxPro IFV.
• Logistic Resilience (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF is diversifying and strengthening long-range logistical capabilities, such as the railway section transfer from Iran, while also relying on ad-hoc fundraising for soldier sustenance and equipment due to internal fuel shortages.
• Tactical C2 and ISR (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF command posts are actively engaged in combat operations, utilizing drone footage and coordinating ground movements, indicating effective tactical C2 and integrated ISR. The detailed combat experience recounted by a fighter from the 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade 'Sv. George' points to coordinated reconnaissance and storming tactics. The coordinated multiple UAV attacks on diverse regions indicate effective C2.
• Hybrid Warfare Swarm Tactics (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The reported "swarms of drones" over Schleswig-Holstein, Germany, and drone activity near Denmark, Lithuania, Norway, and the Netherlands, indicates an advanced capability in hybrid warfare.
• Motorcycle Assaults (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF is utilizing motorcycle-mounted assault groups for rapid deployment, though these are vulnerable to UAF targeting.
• Counter-USV Capabilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF has demonstrated the ability to capture and analyze advanced UAF unmanned surface vessels and use Lancet drones for naval strikes, indicating developing counter-USV capabilities. Confirmed destruction of a UAF USV by Lancet.
• Soft Power Initiatives (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF is deploying soft power initiatives, such as aid to Central Asian countries, to strengthen geopolitical influence. RF also uses cultural events (e.g., rapper Xzibit concerts) for soft power, though this is a low military concern.
• Adjusted Mobilization Capability (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF is adjusting personnel intake criteria by proposing changes to the mobilization disease list. Unverified intelligence suggests potential mobilization in December. RF is also using databases to revoke driving licenses.
• NATO Reinforcement Awareness: RF is aware of NATO force posture adjustments in the Baltic region.

Intentions:

• Intention for Geopolitical Reshaping (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF continues its long-term strategy to build a multi-polar world order, challenge Western dominance, and strengthen alliances with non-Western powers, as evidenced by diplomatic engagements and military cooperation, including Lavrov's UNGA address.
• Intention to Degrade UAF Capabilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF's sustained ground offensives and continuous aerial strikes aim to degrade UAF's combat effectiveness, logistical capacity, and civilian resilience, specifically targeting drone infrastructure, artillery, and armored assets. The recent widespread aerial campaign, including "Kinzhal," ballistic missile threats, and now probable cruise missile launches from strategic bombers, underscores this intent.
• Intention to Isolate and Encircle (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF aims to tactically isolate and destroy UAF forces on key axes, aiming for localized operational breakthroughs, as evidenced by stated goals in storming operations and reported casualty tolerance.
• Intention to Open New Fronts (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The claimed capture of Yunakovka and continued advances in Volchansk and other sectors indicate an intention to open new major ground offensive axes and expand territorial control.
• Intention for Information Dominance (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF is committed to dominating the information environment through rapid dissemination of false-flag narratives, amplification of anti-Western sentiment, and efforts to discredit UAF and Western governments. This includes claims regarding Moldova/Transnistria and UAF recruitment/payment issues. RF's renewed focus on the "NATO Cyber Headquarters against Russia" narrative indicates an intent to frame its hybrid actions as defensive.
• Intention to Control Occupied Territories and Resources (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF aims to further integrate and legitimize its control over seized Ukrainian land and resources through economic (digital ruble) and energy leverage.
• Intention to Consolidate Russian National Identity (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF leadership is focused on consolidating a specific, traditional narrative of Russian identity, influencing social and political policies.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations (Confidence: HIGH)

• Expanded Air Campaign Effort (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF has significantly expanded and intensified its primary air campaign effort across multiple Ukrainian oblasts (Odesa, Sumy, Kyiv, Kropyvnytskyi, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi), now including confirmed deployment of MiG-31K with Kinzhal missiles, multiple ballistic missile launches from Crimea, an increased number of strategic bombers (7 Tu-95MS) with probable cruise missile launches, in addition to UAVs (including a massive concentration in Kyiv Oblast), MLRS (Smerch), and high-speed missiles. This demonstrates an adaptive and persistent strategy aimed at systemic degradation. New UAV groups in northern Sumy/Chernihiv Oblasts indicate adapting attack vectors, with one now moving from Chernihiv towards Kyiv, others targeting Poltava, and a new threat to Kharkiv city. The renewed nationwide air alert confirms the immediate and high-level nature of this adapted offensive.
• New Ground Offensive Axis (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF continues to adapt its ground operations, with claimed territorial gains in Dnipropetropavsk and Donetsk, and renewed assault operations in the Huliaipilske direction. The Yunakovka bridgehead remains a potential new axis. RF units, like the 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade, continue complex reconnaissance and storming missions despite high casualties, indicating a persistent, albeit costly, ground offensive strategy. Threat from aviation strike assets is now present for Pokrovsk and Kupiansk.
• Enhanced Counter-Naval Drone Tactics (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF is actively employing small arms, Lancet loitering munitions (confirmed successful), and improved ISR to counter UAF unmanned surface vessels.
• Adaptive IO for Casualties and Justification (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF quickly adapts its information operations to leverage high-profile events, exploit perceived adversary divisions, and justify its actions through various propaganda narratives (e.g., Lavrov's UNGA speech, Moldova/Transnistria claims, UAF payment narratives). The new focus on NATO's "Cyber Headquarters" suggests an adaptive framing of its own hybrid actions.
• Escalated Hybrid Operations Against NATO (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The confirmed drone activity over Danish Ministry of Defense facilities, disruption of Vilnius International Airport, and drone swarms in Germany, Norway, and the Netherlands indicate a significant escalation in RF's hybrid operations targeting NATO member states. RF is also framing NATO's actions in Moldova as "control of logistics," indicating an adaptive justification for potential future escalations there.
• Direct Recruitment for UAV Units (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF is directly recruiting for specialized UAV battalions and relying on fundraising for equipment and basic soldier sustenance, indicating adaptive personnel sourcing and procurement strategies.
• Financial Control in ТОТ (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The introduction of "digital rubles" in occupied territories is a new adaptation in economic warfare and control.
• IO Adaptations to Internal Dissent (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF's C2 is attempting to manage growing internal dissent, adapting its IO to address public discontent and troop morale issues. Unverified intelligence suggests potential mobilization in December. RF is also using databases to track and potentially restrict civilian activities (driving licenses). Internal corruption cases, like the Krasnoyarsk bribery investigation, highlight ongoing internal governance challenges.
• Adaptive Counter-Battery and Counter-Armor Tactics (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF continues to adapt its ISR and precision fires to neutralize UAF artillery and armored assets, now including active MLRS (Smerch) strikes. Confirmed destruction of MaxxPro IFV by RF.
• Strategic Logistics Diversification (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The transfer of a railway section from Iran to RF signifies a strategic logistical development for long-term supply.
• Lavrov's UNGA Diplomatic Offensive (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Lavrov's diplomatic offensive at the UNGA, including specific narratives on Ukraine, NATO, and global order, represents a coordinated and adaptive effort to shape international discourse.
• Domestic Air Defense Posture: RF is adapting its domestic air defense posture with "Plan Kovyor" activations and airspace restrictions in Kaluga, Penza, and Samara, likely in response to increased UAF deep strike capabilities or perceived threats.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• RF Fuel Shortages: A severe and growing fuel crisis is impacting Lipetsk and Sevastopol Oblasts, indicating internal logistical challenges that could affect military resupply. The declaration of "air danger" in Lipetsk could further disrupt logistics. (Confidence: HIGH)
• RF Logistics Infrastructure Targeted: UAF continues to target RF oil infrastructure and railway logistics (e.g., Vinnytsia traction substation), causing disruptions. (Confidence: HIGH)
• RF Military Procurement Issues: Ongoing reliance on public fundraising for equipment and soldier sustenance (food, mobile air defense, marine infantry) highlights deficiencies in official military supply chains. (Confidence: HIGH)
• RF Internal Supply Chain Disruptions: Transportation disruptions (train accidents, airport restrictions, now in Kaluga, Penza, Samara) and crop losses indicate broader vulnerabilities to internal logistics. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Personnel Support Challenges: High numbers of fighters requiring psychological support, claims of injured soldiers being sent to the front, and allegations of soldier suicides indicate significant and growing personnel sustainment issues for RF. The combat account from the 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade, detailing high casualties and injured personnel needing treatment, underscores this. Unverified intelligence suggests potential mobilization in December to address personnel shortfalls. RF is also consolidating medical and МВД databases which could affect personnel for both military and civilian roles. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Naval Operational Issues: UAF claims of collisions damaging Black Sea Fleet vessels, if verified, indicate internal operational issues. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
• ZNPP Power Status: Conflicting reports on ZNPP's power status highlight ongoing logistical and safety concerns. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
• Strategic Logistics Enhancement: The transfer of a railway section from Iran to RF signifies a long-term strategic logistical enhancement. (Confidence: HIGH)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• RF Centralized C2 and Adaptive Targeting (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF maintains a centralized C2 structure capable of coordinating multi-axis ground offensives and large-scale, adaptive aerial campaigns, as evidenced by the widespread aerial attacks (including Kinzhal, ballistic, and now probable cruise missile launches, plus massive UAV deployments), coordinated ground movements, and the activation of domestic airspace control ("Plan Kovyor" in Penza, "air danger" in Lipetsk, and airspace restrictions in Kaluga, Penza, Samara). The detailed account from the 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade confirms operational command and control during reconnaissance and storming missions.
• RF IO Control and Narrative Management (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF C2 effectively manages the information environment, swiftly deploying narratives to counter threats and exploit opportunities, including during Lavrov's UNGA address and in spreading claims about Moldova and UAF internal financial issues. The immediate framing of "NATO Cyber Headquarters against Russia" demonstrates proactive narrative control.
• UAF C2 Resilience Under Pressure (HIGH CONFIDENCE): UAF General Staff provides regular operational updates, and high repel rates for RF assaults, along with effective drone and SOF operations, demonstrate resilient tactical and operational C2 despite intense pressure. Active air defense responses and public alerts show effective real-time C2 under aerial threats, including rapid declaration of nationwide air alerts for Kinzhal, ballistic missile, and now cruise missile threats. Active PPO in Kyiv Oblast against UAVs further demonstrates responsive C2.
• RF Internal Dissent as C2 Challenge (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Growing public criticism of RF military leadership, mobilization, and social issues, along with significant public discontent at Putin's reception, highlights an internal C2 challenge in maintaining public support and troop morale. The unverified December mobilization intelligence would exacerbate this. RF's attempts to control internal information (e.g., through newspaper distribution or by revoking driving licenses) reflect this challenge. The Krasnoyarsk bribery case also points to internal governance and corruption issues potentially impacting C2 integrity.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (Confidence: HIGH)

• Active Defense and Counter-Offensive Operations: UAF maintains active defense across multiple axes, repelling most RF assaults and making localized advances (Pankivka, Zarichne, Dobropillya direction). Specialized brigades (3rd Assault, 95th AAB, 30th Mechanized, 33rd Mechanized, 225th Separate Assault) demonstrate high readiness in ground and drone operations.
• Air Defense Effectiveness: UAF air defense remains highly engaged and effective against mass drone, ballistic, and missile attacks, with high interception rates and successful regional operations. Nationwide air alerts are promptly declared, indicating responsive air defense C2. PPO is actively working in Kyiv Oblast against multiple UAVs, demonstrating continued effectiveness. Zelenskyy's statements suggest ongoing strengthening of air defense capabilities.
• Special Operations Capabilities: UAF SOF elements continue to demonstrate high readiness and tactical effectiveness in ground operations, including capturing enemy personnel.
• Tactical Drone Utilization: UAF continues to effectively utilize drones for reconnaissance and strike capabilities, with specialized units (Black Raven, 2nd Mountain Assault Battalion, 414th Brigade, 65th OMBr Ronins) achieving significant tactical successes. Naval drones demonstrate advanced capabilities, though they are subject to RF counter-drone measures.
• Long-Range Precision Strike Capabilities: UAF demonstrates capability for deep strikes into RF territory (oil pumping station, Belgorod) and against critical infrastructure in occupied territories (Zaporizhzhia power outage).
• Recruitment Efforts: Active recruitment by various brigades and regional administrations indicates efforts to strengthen force posture. RF claims of UAF offering 2 million Hryvnia payments and two-year contracts to retain contract soldiers, if true, indicate proactive measures to address personnel retention.
• Strong Presidential Rhetoric: Zelenskyy's strong statements on retaliation for blackouts and engagement with international partners demonstrate clear political resolve and strategic intent.
• Rehabilitation Services: Robust rehabilitation services in Kharkiv demonstrate a commitment to personnel care, positively impacting long-term readiness and morale.
• International Legal Efforts: UAF actively disseminates reports on Russian war crimes, using international legal frameworks to counter RF aggression.
• Moldova Alleged Cooperation: RF claims of Moldova involving SBU for a "forceful scenario" in Transnistria, if true, would indicate a strengthening of regional security cooperation against RF influence. (Confidence: LOW for truth, HIGH for RF claim)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• Successes:
  • High Repel Rate: Successfully repelled a high percentage of RF assaults across multiple axes. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Localized Advances: Confirmed liberation of Pankivka, Zarichne, and advances on the Dobropillya direction. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Effective Air Defense: High success rate against RF UAV attacks, and successful air defense operations in Dnipropetropavsk. PPO active nationwide with prompt alerts for Kinzhal and ballistic missile threats, and currently active in Kyiv Oblast against UAVs. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Capture of RF Personnel: Successful capture of enemy soldiers during ground engagements. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Deep Strikes into RF Territory & ТОТ: Successful UAV attacks on RF oil infrastructure, rocket strikes on Belgorod, and power outage in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Effective Tactical Drone Strikes: Significant successes in FPV drone strikes on Pokrovsk direction and other areas, leading to high RF casualties and equipment destruction. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Counter-Recruitment Success: Shutdown of a Russian recruitment channel in Kenya. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • UAF SOF and Assault Units Successes: Effective engagements by 3rd Assault, 95th AAB, 30th Mechanized, 33rd Mechanized, 225th Separate Assault Brigades. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Setbacks:
  • RF Advances on Multiple Axes: RF claims unverified advances in Volchansk and Kupiansk, along with claimed liberation of Derilovo, Mayske, Stepove, and Dorozhne (Dobropillya area). (Confidence: MEDIUM)
  • Loss of Yunakovka: RF's claimed capture of Yunakovka, Sumy Oblast, if confirmed, represents a significant territorial loss. (Confidence: HIGH for claim, verification pending)
  • Civilian Infrastructure Damage & Casualties: Continued RF strikes cause significant damage to civilian infrastructure and casualties (Vinnytsia, Sumy, Chernihiv, Konstantinovka, Zaporizhzhia, Khmelnytskyi). Explosions and fire reported in Zaporizhzhia, with images and video confirming damage to a gas station and residential buildings. Casualties in Zaporizhzhia have risen to 3. Confirmed Kinzhal strikes in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. NEW: Renewed nationwide air alert and probable cruise missile launches from strategic bombers, along with massive UAV attacks (Kyiv, Bila Tserkva, Obukhiv/Ukrainka, Kharkiv, Odesa, Kirovohrad, Poltava) indicate high potential for further civilian damage and casualties. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Potential Encirclement: RF claims of encircling UAF units in Synelnykivskyi forest, if verified, would be a severe tactical setback. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
  • UAF Withdrawal from Zarichne (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) Claim: If verified, would be a localized tactical setback. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
  • RF Air Defense Successes: RF's successful interception of numerous UAF UAVs over Russian territory. RF ground units also claim drone shootdowns. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • RF Artillery/MLRS/Ballistic/Cruise Strikes on UAF Assets/Cities: Claimed destruction of UAF howitzers, tanks, and vehicles by RF artillery/drones. Smerch MLRS strikes on Marhanets/Zaporizhzhia. Multiple ballistic missile launches from Crimea. NEW: Probable cruise missile launches from Tu-95 strategic bombers pose an immediate and significant threat. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Hungarian Drone Invasion: Documented invasion of Ukrainian airspace by a Hungarian drone. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Captured/Destroyed Ukrainian USV: Capture of a UAF unmanned surface vessel by RF forces, and confirmed destruction of another by Lancet near Crimea. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • RF Claims UAF 95th AAB Destroyed: If verified, RF claims of destroying the 95th AAB near Krasnoarmiysk would be a major UAF setback. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • RF Eliminates UAF SOF Commander: If verified, this would be a significant tactical setback for UAF SOF. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Severe Damage in Konstantinovka: Extensive damage to multi-story residential buildings in Konstantinovka from Russian strikes. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Loss of American MaxxPro IFV: Video evidence of a severely damaged and burning International MaxxPro IFV indicates a combat loss for UAF. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • High Casualties in RF Units: Accounts from RF units like the 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade detailing significant personnel losses (12 down to 3) suggest effective UAF resistance and high combat intensity. (Confidence: HIGH)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (Confidence: HIGH)

• Air Defense Assets: Continued high tempo of RF aerial attacks (UAVs, MLRS, strategic bomber-launched missiles including probable cruise missiles, high-speed targets, Kinzhal from MiG-31K, ballistic missiles from Crimea) necessitates sustained supply of air defense munitions and platforms, particularly for drone and missile defense. The probable cruise missile launches from Tu-95s, combined with the MiG-31K, ballistic missile launches, and massive UAV deployments (60 in Bila Tserkva district alone), highlights an immediate, critical need. Mobile C-UAS systems are continuously required, especially for the ongoing UAV threats to Kyiv, Bila Tserkva, Obukhiv/Ukrainka, Poltava, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Kirovohrad.
• Long-Range Precision Strike Capabilities: UAF relies heavily on Western-supplied and indigenous long-range weapons for deep strikes. Continued support and resupply are critical for maintaining offensive pressure and reciprocal deterrence.
• Munitions and Equipment: Sustained combat operations across multiple axes, including offensive and defensive engagements, require continuous supply of ammunition, artillery shells, FPV drones, and combat vehicles. Losses of equipment like the MaxxPro IFV necessitate replacement. The intensity of ground engagements, as highlighted by RF accounts of high casualties, underscores this need.
• Personnel and Training: Ongoing recruitment efforts, potentially including increased financial incentives as claimed by RF, indicate a need for continuous personnel intake and specialized training for various roles, particularly in UAS and air defense.
• Medical and Rehabilitation Support: The extensive rehabilitation services in Kharkiv underscore the ongoing human cost of the conflict and the need for sustained medical and psychological support for military and civilian casualties. The graphic details of injured RF soldiers also illustrate the constant demand for field medical support.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (Confidence: HIGH)

• RF Propaganda Themes:
  • Victimhood, Destabilization of NATO/EU, Demonization of Ukraine/West, Justification for Aggression/Maximalist Demands, Internal Cohesion/Morale Boosting, Hybrid Warfare Narratives, "Big War" Narrative, Non-Military Propaganda, "Wise Politician" Narrative, Gloating over UAF Setbacks, Regional Destabilization (Moldova/Transnistria), UAF Financial/Personnel Crisis, Western Hypocrisy/Internal Disarray, NATO Cyber War. RF continues to push these narratives vigorously, leveraging state media, milbloggers, and diplomatic platforms like the UNGA (where Lavrov is claimed to have "laid low" opponents). The destruction of a UAF USV and MaxxPro IFV will be amplified. Unverified intelligence suggesting a "December mobilization" could be an IO effort to test public reaction or deter UAF actions. RF is actively promoting claims of Ukrainian actions in Moldova to sow discord and also framing NATO's involvement in Moldova as "control of logistics." RF claims about UAF struggling to pay soldiers or enticing them with large payments due to budget shortfalls will be used to undermine morale. RF will likely leverage the detention of George Galloway in London on terrorism charges as an example of Western hypocrisy or internal political instability, attempting to deflect from its own actions. NEW: RF will heavily leverage the narrative of a "NATO Cyber Headquarters against Russia" to justify its own offensive cyber and hybrid operations.
  • New - Heroism and Sacrifice: RF will amplify stories of combat heroism, such as the account from 'Yakut' of the 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade, to bolster internal morale and portray Russian forces as resilient and dedicated despite high casualties. This narrative will focus on their combat experience and bravery.
• UAF Counter-Propaganda/Information Operations (IO) Themes:
  • Exposing RF Atrocities/War Crimes, Highlighting RF Losses/Weaknesses, Mocking RF Disinformation, Diplomatic Pressure/International Support, Internal Resilience/Morale Boosting, Exposing RF Hybrid Operations, Zelenskyy on Retaliation. UAF actively engages in counter-propaganda, utilizing official channels and social media to expose RF actions, boost morale, and maintain international support. Official reporting of damage and casualties in Zaporizhzhia (e.g., #RUSSIAISATERRORISTSTATE) directly counters RF narratives.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• Ukrainian Public Sentiment (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Resilience and resolve remain strong despite ongoing attacks. Anticipation of attacks leads to preparedness but also sustained psychological strain. Concerns about future international support persist, alongside a strong sense of solidarity with NATO. The current widespread aerial attack, including the Kinzhal threat to Khmelnytskyi, ballistic missile launches, and now probable cruise missile launches from strategic bombers, will severely test this resilience. The renewed nationwide air alert brings renewed anxiety. Casualties in Zaporizhzhia and damage in Khmelnytskyi will further impact local morale. The massive UAV threat to Kyiv (Bila Tserkva, Obukhiv/Ukrainka, Boryspil) and Kharkiv will cause widespread fear and disruption.
• Russian Public Sentiment (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): Growing discontent is evident regarding fuel shortages, alleged mistreatment of military personnel, and frustration with official narratives. Propaganda continues to shape perceptions, but social tensions and internal dissent are increasingly visible. Unverified intelligence of "December mobilization" could trigger significant public anxiety. "Plan Kovyor" in Penza Oblast, the "air danger" regime in Lipetsk Oblast, and airport restrictions in Kaluga, Penza, and Samara could generate fear or questions about internal security. RF attempts to control information (e.g., through newspaper distribution or driving license revocations) indicate underlying concerns about public sentiment. The new criminal case concerning bribes against the ex-mayor of Krasnoyarsk could fuel public cynicism about corruption.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments (Confidence: HIGH)

• Continued Western Support (Conditional/Evolving): US military aid remains critical but uncertain depending on political outcomes. European support faces challenges (Hungary's veto). NATO is reinforcing its eastern flank (Sweden/Finland brigade, US Abrams to Estonia, Baltic Sea surveillance). Marco Rubio's statement regarding the Iran nuclear program deal could indicate US diplomatic priorities shifting towards non-European issues.
• RF Diplomatic Offensive: Lavrov's UNGA presence is a platform for RF's geopolitical agenda and narrative shaping, despite low attendance. RF is strengthening non-Western alliances (Iran, India) and exploiting other global crises. RF claims of Lavrov's success at the UNGA reflect internal narrative shaping. Cultural events (Xzibit concerts) may be used for soft power projection.
• International Condemnation/Legal Action: The OSCE report on Russian war crimes increases legal and diplomatic pressure on RF. The detention of George Galloway in London may be leveraged by RF in its anti-Western narratives.
• Moldovan Political Context: RF actively seeks to exploit political instability in Moldova, leveraging internal developments and propagating claims of Moldovan/SBU "forceful scenarios" in Transnistria, and now claiming NATO is forming bases in Moldova to "control logistics." This is a significant escalation of IO regarding Moldova.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(Confidence: HIGH) RF will continue multi-axis ground pressure across the Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetropavsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy axes. The immediate priority will be to contain and roll back any UAF tactical gains in the Dobropillya salient, specifically focusing on Dorozhne and surrounding areas, to prevent an encirclement of its forward-deployed units. RF will persist in attempting to consolidate and expand its claimed territorial gains in Derilovo, Mayske (DNR), and Stepove (Dnipropetropavsk Oblast). Offensive operations in the Huliaipilske direction will likely intensify, aimed at regaining lost positions or testing UAF defenses. Reconnaissance and probing attacks from the Yunakovka bridgehead in Sumy Oblast will continue to fix UAF forces, but a large-scale offensive here is less likely in the immediate 24-48 hours given the focus on Dobropillya and the ongoing widespread aerial campaign. RF units will likely continue localized storming operations, accepting high casualties if tactical objectives are deemed sufficiently important. The threat of aviation strike assets (КАБ/FAB) will persist for the Pokrovsk and Kupiansk directions.

(Confidence: HIGH) RF is currently executing and will continue a focused, high-intensity aerial strike campaign. This will primarily target critical energy infrastructure, airfields (e.g., Starokonstantyniv), and urban centers, particularly in Kyiv, Bila Tserkva, Obukhiv/Ukrainka, Kharkiv, Vinnytsia, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, and potentially Dnipro, Odesa, and Kirovohrad. This strike will heavily utilize UAVs (Shaheds/Gerans, including the ~60 UAVs in Bila Tserkva district, multiple towards Kyiv, Kharkiv city, the ~50 UAVs heading towards Odesa/Kirovohrad, and 23 UAVs towards Haisyn). The confirmed pre-launch maneuvers and probable cruise missile launches from Tu-95 strategic bombers near Engels, in addition to previously reported Kinzhal and ballistic missile launches, indicate a renewed and extremely dangerous phase of the widespread air campaign. MLRS (Smerch) and high-speed targets will also be used, aiming for widespread disruption and psychological impact ahead of winter. RF air defenses in border regions (Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk, Penza, Lipetsk, Kaluga, Samara) will remain on high alert to counter UAF deep strikes, as evidenced by recent interceptions, "Plan Kovyor" activation, and airspace restrictions.

(Confidence: HIGH) RF will escalate hybrid operations against NATO member states, likely continuing drone overflights or disruptive activities targeting sensitive military and civilian infrastructure in the Baltic Sea region (Denmark, Lithuania, Norway, Netherlands, Germany), and possibly expanding to new regions. Concurrently, RF will intensify its information operations, focusing on:

1. Denying responsibility for provocations against NATO and shifting blame, leveraging the "NATO Cyber Headquarters against Russia" narrative.
2. Amplifying narratives of NATO/EU disunity and portraying Western nations as aggressive or subservient to the US, leveraging statements from figures like Orban and promoting antisemitic propaganda to sow division, potentially exploiting events like the detention of George Galloway.
3. Undermining Ukraine's legitimacy and morale, particularly through narratives of "atrocities," "tightening mobilization," and denying territorial integrity, and focusing on perceived UAF financial/personal issues. RF will also likely highlight perceived RF military heroism and resilience, such as the combat experiences of the 7th Motorized Rifle Brigade.
4. Promoting RF's diplomatic narrative of being open to talks on "root causes" while maintaining maximalist demands for Ukraine's demilitarization and territorial concessions.
5. Exploiting regional tensions, specifically amplifying claims about Moldova and SBU involvement in Transnistria, and now alleging NATO bases in Moldova for "logistic control," to sow instability and distract from ongoing events in Ukraine.

(Confidence: HIGH) RF will continue its efforts to financially integrate occupied Ukrainian territories through mechanisms like the "digital ruble," aiming to solidify administrative control. Internal RF domestic policies, such as combining medical and МВД databases for driving license revocations, will continue to be implemented, indicating an increasing effort to control civilian life. Efforts to combat internal corruption, like the Krasnoyarsk bribery case, may be highlighted to project an image of internal order.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(Confidence: MEDIUM) RF assesses that NATO's response to the escalating drone provocations and the current geopolitical climate (China's demands, Israeli conflict) is weak and launches a coordinated, large-scale multi-domain offensive operation:

1. Ground Offensive: RF commits significant operational reserves (including forces currently fixing UAF in other sectors) to violently crush the UAF salient at Dobropillya, aiming for a decisive encirclement and destruction of UAF units. Simultaneously, a secondary major ground assault is launched from the Yunakovka bridgehead towards Sumy City, employing armored thrusts and airborne elements, designed to open a new operational front and stretch UAF defenses to their breaking point. This would involve a significant disregard for personnel losses in pursuit of strategic objectives.
2. Air/Missile Offensive: Building on the currently executing "massive strike" with probable cruise missile launches, RF unleashes a catastrophic, prolonged missile and drone campaign against Kyiv and all major Ukrainian population centers, targeting all remaining government infrastructure, critical air defense systems, and the entire energy grid, aimed at causing widespread collapse, societal paralysis, and a complete, irreversible blackout. This strike would utilize all available strategic bombers (7 Tu-95MS, Tu-160) with sustained cruise missile launches, hypersonic (Kinzhal from MiG-31K), ballistic (from Crimea), and conventional ballistic missiles, alongside mass drone swarm attacks (including the ~60 UAVs in Bila Tserkva district, multiple towards Kyiv, Kharkiv, the ~50 UAVs now active and the newly identified groups from northern Sumy and Chernihiv, and 6 UAVs towards Boryspil/Kyiv), and active Smerch MLRS and high-speed targets, launched from multiple vectors, to overwhelm UAF air defenses. This would involve rapid re-arming and re-launch of strategic assets previously involved in the initial wave, sustained over 24-48 hours.
3. Hybrid Warfare Escalation: Concurrently, RF launches coordinated cyberattacks against NATO critical infrastructure (energy, financial systems, transportation, military C2), coupled with drone swarm attacks against multiple sensitive military installations within NATO territory (e.g., airbases, command centers) and strategic infrastructure (e.g., ports, airports), aimed at overwhelming NATO response capabilities and directly challenging the credibility of Article 5. RF also conducts covert sabotage operations against critical infrastructure in Western Europe, potentially including acts of terrorism in response to perceived UAF provocations in NATO countries. RF exploits the Moldovan political instability and its fabricated "forceful scenario" narrative, now compounded by claims of NATO bases in Moldova, to further destabilize the country, potentially creating a new flashpoint and diverting international attention.

This MDCOA would be designed to shatter UAF command and control, force a catastrophic choice on the allocation of strategic reserves, and directly challenge NATO's deterrence posture, potentially initiating a broader conflict, while simultaneously aiming to achieve a decisive victory in Ukraine before international response can fully materialize.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Immediate (0-6 hours - CRITICAL, ACTIVELY UNFOLDING):
  • Decision Point: UAF must decide on rapid reinforcement or tactical withdrawal in the Dobropillya salient if RF counter-attacks are successful. CRITICAL: UAF Air Command is currently making immediate decisions regarding the deployment of interceptors, activation of additional air defense systems, and potential dispersal of high-value assets in response to the ongoing widespread UAV, MLRS, high-speed threats, and probable cruise missile launches from Tu-95 strategic bombers. This specifically targets Kyiv (including new UAV groups towards Boryspil, Bila Tserkva, Obukhiv/Ukrainka), Poltava, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Marhanets, Kharkiv (including city), Pokrovsk, Kupiansk (aviation strike assets), and other regions. The renewed nationwide alert demands immediate and adaptive AD.
  • Timeline: RF ground forces will attempt to stabilize or exploit the Dobropillya situation. Continued, intense RF aerial activity (UAVs, cruise missiles, KABs) can be expected across eastern, northern, central, and southern Ukraine.
• Near-Term (6-48 hours):
  • Decision Point: UAF High Command must decide on the level of response to the current widespread RF aerial strikes and further RF territorial gains in Dnipropetropavsk/Donetsk, as well as any escalation of hybrid attacks against NATO. UAF must decide on resource allocation for emergency services and infrastructure repair following the current attacks, especially in Zaporizhzhia and Khmelnytskyi, and now potentially Kyiv and Kharkiv.
  • Timeline: Intensified RF ground operations are likely in Dobropillya and Huliaipilske directions. Post-strike Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for Kinzhal/ballistic/cruise strikes will be critical to inform recovery and defensive operations. NATO allies will likely convene urgent consultations regarding RF hybrid operations and the potential for Article 5 implications. Continued RF information operations regarding Moldova, UAF financial issues, and the "NATO Cyber Headquarters" are expected.

6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. IMMEDIATE AIR DEFENSE ACTIVATION & CIVILIAN ALERT (CRITICAL MULTI-VECTOR THREAT): All available air defense systems must be at their highest readiness level and actively engaged against the persistent and multi-vector threats, now including probable cruise missile launches from Tu-95 strategic bombers. Continue to disseminate immediate, urgent civilian air raid alerts nationwide, especially for Vinnytsia, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Dnipro, Odesa, Kropyvnytskyi, Marhanets, Uman, Zvenyhorod, Haisyn, Nizhyn, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv (Bila Tserkva, Obukhiv/Ukrainka, Boryspil), and Kharkiv (city). Prioritize mobile C-UAS and missile interceptor deployment to protect critical energy infrastructure and population centers from current and anticipated follow-on strikes. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE - GIVEN ONGOING MISSILE AND UAV THREATS)
2. ISR Re-tasking (BDA, Strategic Asset Status, UAV Tracking & New UAV Vectors, Aviation Strike Threat): Prioritize all available ISR assets (HUMINT, SIGINT, IMINT, OSINT verification) to immediately confirm the extent of UAF breakthroughs or RF consolidation around Dobropillya. Simultaneously, dedicate all available ISR to conduct immediate BDA for Kinzhal strikes in Khmelnytskyi, identify origins/targets of ballistic missiles from Crimea, and urgently confirm impact points and damage from probable cruise missile launches from Tu-95s. Focus on real-time tracking of current UAV, MLRS, and high-speed missile trajectories, especially the ~60 UAVs in Bila Tserkva district, multiple UAVs targeting Kyiv (including Boryspil) and Kharkiv, the ~50 UAVs now active from Mykolaiv/Kherson, and the multiple UAVs targeting Poltava. Provide immediate updates on any observed aviation strike assets (КАБ/FAB) threatening Pokrovsk and Kupiansk. Provide real-time updates to tactical and strategic commanders. (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
3. Enhanced Cross-Border Threat Assessment (Sumy/Kharkiv & Transnistria): Elevate threat assessment for renewed RF ground offensive in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Position mobile reserves and conduct pre-emptive artillery strikes on suspected RF staging areas/logistics near Yunakovka or Volchansk. Continue monitoring of "Plan Kovyor" activation in Penza Oblast, the "air danger" regime in Lipetsk Oblast, and airspace restrictions in Kaluga, Penza, Samara for insights into RF domestic air defense posture and potential logistical vulnerabilities. Concurrently, intensify monitoring of the Transnistria region for any unusual troop movements or heightened rhetoric following RF claims of Moldovan/SBU involvement and alleged NATO bases for "logistic control." (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE)
4. Strengthen Counter-Hybrid Defenses & NATO Coordination: Share all available intelligence on RF drone capabilities and tactics (e.g., swarm attacks, drone types from Norwegian/Dutch incidents, Lancet USV destruction) with NATO partners. Urgently request heightened electronic warfare support and shared air domain awareness. Implement enhanced physical security protocols around critical infrastructure nationwide, including against potential RF covert sabotage. Proactively counter RF narratives about "NATO Cyber Headquarters against Russia" by highlighting RF's own aggressive cyber and hybrid operations. (CRITICAL/HIGH)
5. Proactive Information Warfare Counter-Narratives: Develop and immediately disseminate proactive counter-narratives to RF propaganda, specifically addressing Orban's anti-Ukraine rhetoric, the antisemitic cartoon, RF gloating over Chernihiv blackouts, the destruction of the UAF USV and MaxxPro IFV, the detention of George Galloway, RF claims regarding UAF financial/personnel issues, and especially RF claims regarding Moldova and SBU in Transnistria, and the new narrative of NATO bases for "logistic control." Counter RF narratives of military heroism by highlighting the high cost in personnel losses for RF units. Focus on fact-based reporting, highlighting RF's own internal struggles, and emphasizing Ukrainian resilience. Monitor and counter any RF IO related to an unverified "December mobilization." (HIGH)
6. Resource Prioritization (Long-Range Precision Strike & Air Defense): Advocate forcefully for the immediate delivery of Western long-range precision strike capabilities and additional modern air defense systems (including Patriots). Highlight their proven effectiveness against RF logistics and critical infrastructure. The current wave of cruise missile and drone attacks underscores this urgent requirement. (HIGH)
7. Monitor RF Logistics & Internal Dissension: Intensify ISR on fuel and transportation networks within Lipetsk, Sevastopol, and other RF regions. Monitor for signs of increased public discontent (e.g., Putin's reception queues, impact of Krasnoyarsk bribery case) that could impact RF's ability to sustain operations. Target vulnerable logistics nodes. Address any confirmed impact from a potential "December mobilization" on RF morale. Track implementation and impact of RF's new driving license revocation policy. (MEDIUM)
8. Target RF C2: Continue to prioritize targeting RF command and control nodes, especially UAV C2 points and command posts overseeing ground offensives. Precision strikes on these targets directly degrade RF's ability to coordinate adaptive operations and mitigate the impact of continued high-casualty ground operations. (HIGH)