Sitrep 2025-09-24 07:24:43

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT - 240719Z SEP 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current operational picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (Confidence: HIGH)

RF forces maintain multi-axis pressure across the Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia axes. Heavy reciprocal battles continue in Sumy Oblast. RF claims recent unverified advances in Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, and the occupation of the medical college area in Kupiansk. RF also claims a 5km advance on the Gulyaipole direction, entering Novoivanivka, and new positions south of Novoivanivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF claims full control of Serebryansky forestry and the liberation of Berëzovoye and Kalynivske in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast (CONFIRMED by RF MoD and DeepState for Berëzovoye, but UAF denies Kalynivske). RF continues to claim an offensive behind Chasiv Yar. UAF has confirmed the liberation of Pankivka, Donetsk Oblast, and Zarichne, and reports eliminating a Russian breakthrough near Pokrovsk. Heavy fighting continues on the Krasnolimanskoye direction. UAF General Staff reports over 95 combat engagements in the last 24 hours, repelling the majority of RF assaults across multiple axes, particularly Kupiansk (18/19 repelled), Lyman (10 repelled), Pokrovsk (15 repelled), Vremivka (9 repelled), and Orikhiv (8 repelled). UAF reports advances on the Dobropillya direction, having liberated 164.5 sq. km. Zelenskyy claims 360 sq. km liberated by Ukrainian forces in recent weeks, and approximately 1,000 Russian servicemen captured.

Key Updates:

Zaporizhzhia Oblast: RF has conducted multiple (at least five, preliminarily six FAB, now confirmed as 5 Shahed drone strikes) strikes on Zaporizhzhia for the second consecutive night, targeting private residential areas and industrial infrastructure. Multiple photo/video messages confirm extensive fires and destruction. UAF OBA and local authorities (ASTRA, RBC-Ukraine, Zaporizhzhia OBA) confirm one fatality and the number of injured has increased to fifteen (up from twelve). Threat of ballistic missile launches from Crimea toward Zaporizhzhia and Odesa Oblasts has been re-declared. RF military sources show drone footage of reconnaissance and assault operations in open fields, indicating continued ground operations, likely on the Zaporizhzhia front. New RF UAVs are reported inbound to Zaporizhzhia from the south, with a new danger alert for strike UAVs in Nikopol district. Pro-RF sources (Alex Parker Returns) claim "Geran" drones hit Zaporizhzhia, and UAF air defense "could not counter them." Video messages from UAF source "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" show explosions in Zaporizhzhia. UAF Air Force reports launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (КАБ) in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. An air raid alert has been ongoing in Zaporizhzhia Oblast for over 6 hours, but has now been declared 'All Clear'. Video from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ shows impacts of 3 reactive UAVs on Zaporizhzhia. Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны also shares video of 3 "Geran" strikes on Zaporizhzhia. Colonelcassad shares thermal imaging footage showing multiple explosions at the Motor Sich enterprise in Zaporizhzhia, confirming a successful RF strike on a critical defense-related industrial site. UAF source "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" reports on 5 reactive Shaheds striking Zaporizhzhia in 20 minutes, reinforcing the high tempo of attacks on critical infrastructure and urban areas. RBC-Україна reports a tenth blackout at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant since Russian occupation, indicating potential further RF pressure or neglect on critical energy infrastructure. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація shares photos of anti-drone tunnels being built to protect front-line roads in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating defensive adaptation to RF drone threats. TASS reports ZNPP disconnected from its last external power line. UAF Air Force reports a group of RF UAVs heading for Zaporizhzhia from the southeast. UAF Air Force reports an RF UAV heading for Nikopol district from Zaporizhzhia. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims power supply to ZNPP was cut after a UAF strike. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV in Zaporizhzhia, moving north/northwest on/past the regional center. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new groups of UAVs on/past Zaporizhzhia from the southeast. UAF sources confirm a 30-year-old man, severely wounded in a daytime attack, died in the hospital, bringing the total fatalities in Zaporizhzhia to two. Explosions are reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target east of Zaporizhzhia moving north. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target from occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Nikopol. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repeated КАБ launches on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. NEW: Николаевский Ванёк reports a КАБ launched on Zaporizhzhia. NEW: РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Zaporizhzhia. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports fire and damage to private homes in one district of Zaporizhzhia after RF attack. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photo messages of one of the damaged houses in Zaporizhzhia due to enemy attack, reinforcing high impact. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photo messages of emergency services (ДСНС ЗАПОРІЖЖЯ) responding to two RF FAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia. NEW: РБК-Україна shares photo message of a damaged house in Zaporizhzhia due to RF attack. NEW: РБК-Україна shares photo message of two RF FAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an 'All Clear' for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. NEW: ASTRA shares photo messages showing the aftermath of a nighttime RF attack on Zaporizhzhia, with unknown casualties. This reinforces the ongoing targeting of civilian areas. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports that in Zaporizhzhia one high-rise building and three private houses were damaged due to a nighttime enemy attack. This confirms further civilian infrastructure damage. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that in the Shevchenkivskyi district of Zaporizhzhia, as a result of a Russian attack, one apartment building and three private houses were damaged, citing OBA. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares a video featuring Ivan Fedorov, head of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, discussing the increase of the defense fund to nearly 3.5 billion hryvnias and the goal to build approximately 100 kilometers of anti-drone trenches and other logistical infrastructure by the end of the year, commencing with brigades on the Zaporizhzhia front. This highlights a significant UAF defensive adaptation and resource commitment to the Zaporizhzhia axis.
Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: NEW: "Suspilne" reports sounds of explosions in Kryvyi Rih.
Odesa Oblast: RF attacked Odesa Oblast, damaging a hotel and administrative buildings, causing one confirmed fatality and three injured civilians. RF MOD claims retaliatory strikes on SSO and foreign mercenaries in Tatarbunary and Rasseika, Odesa Oblast, in response to the Crimea "terror attack." NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV continuing towards Odesa Oblast (vector - Dobroslav). NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV in northern Odesa Oblast, heading northwest. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs are moving towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district, Odesa Oblast, from the Black Sea. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Kherson region on course for Mykolaiv region. NEW: Сили оборони Півдня України reports 20 shellings on 12 settlements in the past day, resulting in civilian suffering. This implies continued RF pressure on the Southern operational zone.
Kupiansk Direction: RF sources are claiming their "Valkyrie" drones are demonstrating that "nothing is happening in Kupiansk" is false, implying ongoing RF activity and possibly advances. UAF's 14th Brigade successfully destroyed two RF "Bukhanka" vehicles and one motorcycle near Kupiansk at night using thermal-equipped UAVs. RF MoD claims units of the "West" group are successfully advancing to liberate Kupiansk, with 5.6k out of 8.6k buildings taken under control. RF MoD further states UAF is partially encircled in Kupiansk from the north and west, with continued blocking from the south. Pro-RF sources "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" and "Старше Эдды" echo these claims. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares a new map image with a caption "🪂 Купянское направление," showing additional claimed RF advances, including areas south of Vilshana and towards Hryanykivka, further corroborating continued RF pressure. Kotsnews reports on "The Battle for Kupiansk," indicating continued RF information operations to emphasize their offensive actions and presence in the area. Colonelcassad reports that units of the "West" grouping are successfully fulfilling tasks to liberate Kupiansk, reinforcing RF claims. NEW: Zvиздец Мангусту (RF source) reports RF command recognizes the need to avoid a pause in offensive operations in the 6th Combined Arms Army's sector to maintain stability in advanced Kupiansk units, which have penetrated the city but operate in a limited 4x4 km area, constrained by the Oskil River. RF acknowledges UAF's currently limited forces in the area but anticipates this will not last indefinitely. NEW: Colonelcassad shares video of Russian pilots striking the 24th Mechanized Brigade of the UAF with FAB-250s with UMPK. NEW: Colonelcassad provides contextual detail about the video, confirming urban environment and multiple smoke plumes, likely from ongoing FAB strikes. NEW: Colonelcassad reports "S.P.A.R.T.A. Battalion" destroying a UAF UAV control point in Dmytrivka. NEW: ТАСС reports Russian Armed Forces are tightening the ring around Kupiansk, citing Russian security forces. This reinforces RF claims of advancing encirclement. NEW: ТАСС reports that Kyiv has sent national battalions to Kupiansk in an attempt to hold back the Russian army, citing Marochko. NEW: ТАСС shares video footage of a group of Ukrainian soldiers surrendering in Kupiansk, according to Russian security forces. This is a significant RF claim that, if verified, could indicate a tactical breakthrough or collapse of UAF defenses in a critical area.
Lyman-Siversk Direction: TASS reports that RF forces have established full fire control over the highway connecting Krasny Lyman and Siversk in DNR, according to Igor Kimakovsky, advisor to the head of the DPR. This would effectively cut off UAF forces between these two locations. RF claims to have practically pushed UAF out of Kirovsk on the Krasnolimanskoye direction. RF sources ("Z комитет + karta SVO" and "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺") provide new maps indicating advances towards Torske and Shandryholove on the Krasnolimanskoye (Siversk) direction. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports that RF units, after liberating Pereyezdnoye, are preparing for battles for the neighboring Zvanovka in DNR, according to military expert Andrey Marochko. Colonelcassad shares multiple tactical maps, including one for the Krasnolimanskoye direction as of 23.09.2025, which would corroborate claimed RF advances. NEW: Военкор Котенок shares map overlays for the Krasnolimanskoye/Severkoye directions, suggesting continued RF focus on this area. NEW: ТАСС reports Marochko states RF has formed a fire pocket for UAF southeast of Zvanovka in DNR. NEW: РБК-Україна shares a map showing enemy attacks in the Lyman-Siversk area (Hrekivka, Novomykhailivka, Serednje, Kolodiazi, Novoselivka, Torske, Shandryholove), indicating 15 attacks repelled. This directly challenges RF claims of fire control and advances.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: DeepState reports RF advances near four settlements in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. A 70-year-old woman was killed in Nikopol due to an RF FPV drone strike. Colonelcassad shares a tactical map for the "Dnepropetrovsk direction" as of 23.09.2025, further supporting claimed RF advances in this area. Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) shares photo messages from a Defense Council meeting, emphasizing protection of people and territories, indicating UAF administrative focus on regional defense. Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports over 40 enemy attacks on the region throughout the day. ASTRA reports one person died and three were injured as a result of a Russian attack in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. NEW: Николаевский Ванёк reports Smerch launch targeting Nikopol/Pokrov. NEW: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports shelling of Nikopol with heavy artillery and FPV drones, damaging a five-story building, a car, and a power line.
Zaporizhzhia Direction (Huliaipole): Colonelcassad shares a tactical map for the "Гуляйпольское направление" (Huliaipole direction) as of 23.09.2025, which would corroborate claimed RF advances in this area. "Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны" claims the Russian Army has forded the Vovcha River and entered Ivanivka, advancing at the junction of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Colonelcassad confirms that "East" Group units have forded the Vovcha River and taken positions in eastern Ivanivka, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. NEW: TASS reports the "Dnepr" grouping struck a UAF dugout in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This indicates continued RF artillery and ground operations in the area. NEW: ТАСС reports that drones from the 'Dnepr' grouping destroyed a US-made Paladin self-propelled artillery unit in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This is a significant claim of successful RF C-UAS and precision strike capabilities against high-value UAF equipment. The accompanying video describes the FPV drone operator's process of targeting, including using dust trails from artillery fire for identification.
Novotroitske Area: "Николаевский Ванёк" shares video footage of a successful UAF engagement against an 8-person RF assault group attempting to infiltrate Novotroitske, resulting in the complete annihilation of the group and their motorcycles. This demonstrates effective UAF tactical defense and drone-supported operations. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of two fighters from 425 OSHB "Skelya," supported by drone operators, destroying an 8-person RF assault group in Novotoretsk, corroborating effective UAF tactical defense.
Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast: Colonelcassad shares a map with caption "Продвижение ВС РФ возле Волчанска и в Харьковской области," indicating continued RF offensive pressure in this area. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a tactical map for "Kharkiv direction" with a red shaded area, suggesting continued RF activity or contested territory.
Kharkiv Oblast: NEW: НгП раZVедка (RF source) claims a power substation "Ivanivka" in Kharkiv city was destroyed overnight by 21 strike UAVs as part of "radical decommunization." NEW: РБК-Україна reports an explosion was heard in Kharkiv, likely outside the city, according to "Suspilne." NEW: Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны shares video and photo messages claiming a massive attack on Kharkiv, resulting in powerful fires and power outages. NEW: Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares video messages showing explosions and fires in Kharkiv, with commentary expressing distress and loss of power. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares videos and photos claiming massive RF strikes on military objects in Kharkiv, showing explosions and fires. NEW: РБК-Україна shares a video of emergency services responding to an RF attack on Kharkiv. NEW: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, shares images of a large fire in Kharkiv as a result of enemy strikes. NEW: ASTRA shares video footage of firefighters in Kharkiv responding to a fire in a damaged structure, reinforcing the impact of RF strikes. NEW: Colonelcassad shares video showing strikes by "Geran" drones on the Ivanivka substation in Kharkiv on September 23, 2025, confirming the target and date of the RF strike on critical infrastructure.
Konstantinovka Direction: NEW: ТАСС reports RF forces have approached Konstantinovka from several directions, citing DNR head Pushilin. This indicates sustained RF offensive pressure on this key logistical hub.
Kherson Oblast: NEW: РБК-Україна shares video showing the aftermath of shelling on the center of Kherson, with damaged historical residential buildings and an active fire, indicating continued RF targeting of civilian areas. Оперативний ЗСУ also shares similar video, reinforcing the impact.
General Ground Operations (RF Claims/UAF Confirmation): MoD Russia reports that the Yug Group's units liberated Pereyezdnoye (Donetsk People's Republic). TASS shares video footage showing Russian military personnel, deploying a Russian flag, confirming the liberation. New RF milblogger video shows footage of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army artillery union targeting Ukrainian positions with FPV drones, loitering munitions, and high-precision ammunition on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. UAF General Staff reports over 95 combat engagements in the last 24 hours, repelling the majority of RF assaults across multiple axes, particularly Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka. "Z комитет + karta SVO" provides new map images with captions indicating advances in Kalynivske and Poltavka. RF 5th Army artillery targeted a concentration of UAF manpower (seven personnel) identified by 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade reconnaissance. UAF Flying Skull unit's Tureta operators conducting FPV drone strikes on Russian positions/vehicles on the Pokrovsk direction, including a vehicle and individuals in wooded areas. Colonelcassad shares photos of damage in Kurakhove, Donetsk Oblast, dated September 2025, showing extensive structural damage to civilian buildings, indicative of recent RF shelling. MoD Russia claims a T-80BVM tank crew destroyed an AFU UAV command post on the approaches to Krasnoarmeysk with indirect fire. "Z комитет + karta SVO" shares a new map image for "Меловое," which indicates further RF consolidation or minor advances in the Luhansk Oblast region bordering Russia. Colonelcassad shares a tactical map for the "Южно-Донецком направлении" (South Donetsk direction) as of 23.09.2025, further supporting claimed RF advances in this area. "Воин DV" also reports on the "ОБСТАНОВКА НА ЮЖНО-ДОНЕЦКОМ НАПРАВЛЕНИИ В ЗОНЕ ОТВЕТСТВЕННОСТИ ГРУППИРОВКИ ВОЙСК "ВОСТОК"," supporting the notion of active RF operations and claimed advances. Президентська бригада ЗСУ shares drone footage showing UAF targeting and destroying two RF Tor-M2 air defense systems, indicating effective counter-battery fire and precision strikes. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares a map showing the Konstantinovka direction, indicating continued RF focus on this area. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" shares drone footage of a damaged road, suggesting combat operations in a rural or semi-rural area. RBC-Україна shares video footage showing the destruction of two Russian TOR-M2 short-range air defense systems by the 412th 'Nemesis' Regiment of the Ukrainian Air Force. Colonelcassad states "ОБСТАНОВКА НА ЮЖНО-ДОНЕЦКОМ НАПРАВЛЕНИИ В ЗОНЕ ОТВЕТСТВЕННОСТИ ГРУППИРОВКИ ВОЙСК "ВОСТОК"." DeepState shares drone footage of UAF drone operators from 241st Territorial Defense Brigade successfully targeting Russian positions on the western outskirts of Stepnohirsk. Rybar shares tactical maps for the "Novoselovskoye Direction" and "Konstantinovskoye Direction" for September 22-23, 2025, providing visual corroboration of active RF operations. NEW: DeepState shares video of 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Iron Falcons" striking enemy manpower east of Tovste. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of a series of successful UAF strikes on Russian military equipment. NEW: Colonelcassad shares video of the 16th Guards Brigade of Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Defense (RHB Protection) using FPV drones with thermobaric charges in the "Vostok" grouping. This indicates adaptive use of specialized units with highly destructive munitions in ground operations. NEW: Рыбарь posts a video titled "SVO Chronicle for September 22-23," which likely contains further details and maps of claimed RF advances. NEW: ТАСС reports Russian operators of unmanned aerial vehicles in the area of the special military operation destroyed a tank and two octocopters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, citing the Ministry of Defense. This indicates successful RF counter-UAV and anti-armor operations. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports drone operators of the 108th Kodak Territorial Defense Brigade continue to systematically destroy equipment, fortifications, and manpower of the Russian occupiers. This indicates continued UAF tactical successes. NEW: ТАСС reports that assault groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces special company retreated with heavy losses near Synelnykove, Kharkiv Oblast, citing Russian security forces. This is an RF claim of successful defensive action and UAF losses. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares videos and photos claiming massive RF strikes on military objects in Kharkiv, showing explosions and fires. NEW: WarGonzo provides a "Frontline summary for the morning of 24.09.25", including tactical maps for Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv and Sumy fronts, indicating continued RF operations and claimed advances on these axes. NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 95 combat engagements occurred over the last 24 hours. The situation remains difficult, particularly on the Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Vremivka (South Donetsk), and Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia) axes. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF forces struck UAF dislocaton points of the 425th regiment and 47th brigade near Yunakivka on the Sumy direction. NEW: Colonelcassad shares video of the 57th Separate Reconnaissance Spetsnaz Unit (orSpN) destroying two UAF temporary deployment points (PVD) near Oktyabrsky. NEW: Colonelcassad shares a video showcasing Russian military activities, including artillery fire, troop movements, and drone footage of explosions and equipment. NEW: ТАСС shares video footage of FSB of DNR destroying enemy DRG by "Gorynych" counter-terrorism unit on Dzerzhinsk direction. NEW: Mash na Donbashe shares video of police rescuing a woman from a burning apartment in Kurakhovo, claimed by RF to be recently liberated. This suggests recent combat or fire activity in the area and RF presence. NEW: Два майора shares a video of three masked and armed individuals in military camouflage, stating it's a "Collection for assault troops on the Slaviansk direction," indicating continued RF fundraising and operations on this front.
RF Internal Security: TASS reports the MVD is temporarily blocking subscriber numbers of messenger account owners that are rented out. ASTRA reports a Wagner Group supporter was sentenced to 3 years for a comment about "shell hunger." The FSB detained a father and son in Samara Oblast committing sabotage since 2023, while preparing to blow up a railway bridge over the Samara River. A treason case was initiated in the Urals for financing UAF. An individual suspected of financing UAF was detained in Yekaterinburg. RF Prosecutor General's office is demanding seizure of assets worth 9 billion rubles from Viktor Momotov, Chairman of the Council of Judges. TASS reports Judge Momotov has appealed to the Council of Judges commission to investigate alleged violations of anti-corruption legislation. ASTRA reports that Alexey Bobrov, beneficiary of "Oblkommunenergo," was detained in Yekaterinburg by security forces. TASS reports that goods from Western brands (Zara, Bershka, Stradivarius, Massimo Dutti) that previously exited the Russian market have reappeared for sale under the 'TEBOE' umbrella. TASS reports the State Duma adopted in the first reading a bill on insurance pensions for children conceived via IVF after the father's death. Mash na Donbashe shares a video of an intoxicated individual threatening bus passengers with a handgun in Mariupol. TASS reports the Federal Tax Service (FNS) began sending notifications for tax payments on bank deposit interest for 2024, due by December 1, 2025. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of the FSB detaining a father and son attempting to blow up a bridge over the Samara River. ASTRA and Север.Реалии report the Belgorod governor proposed using old textbooks to cover school windows during shelling for safety. ASTRA reports a mother of a mobilized soldier, detained for a solo picket near the RF Ministry of Defense building, was released after two days. TASS reports an investigation is seeking an arrest warrant for Maxim Katz (recognized as a foreign agent in RF) for violating the law on foreign agents. Mash na Donbashe reports on a double homicide of pensioners in Stakhanov for 70,000 rubles and jewelry. Alex Parker Returns shares a video about mass arrests and deportations at a "Friendship of Peoples" wedding in Krasnoyarsk. TASS reports a Moscow Regional Court rejected an appeal for early release for Mitvol, who has six months left on his sentence. TASS reports a court upheld a decision to deny boarding to a family who did not print boarding passes. ТАСС reports a court deprived a Russian woman, Burnashkina, of parental rights after she left her daughter in an Antalya airport toilet after birth. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА shares a video from the Russian State Duma discussing resource-supplying organizations. ТАСС reports on proposed legislation that would ban dog owners from visiting shops, public catering establishments, schools, and hospitals with pets, with an exception for guide dogs. Kotsnews reports on why a veteran of the "SVO" (Special Military Operation) gave his deputy mandate to the governor's grandson. ТАСС reports that time for advertising domestic toys on children's TV channels should be increased because foreign toys carry values alien to Russian society. TASS reports court attracting Maria Korzhilova in lawsuit against her husband and KDV Group owner Shtengelov for property forfeiture to RF. ТАСС reports MVD is not proposing additional burdens on right-hand drive cars. Alex Parker Returns reports that hundreds of thousands of migrants from Nepal, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and India are expected to arrive in Russia soon due to labor shortages, citing the head of the RF Chamber of Commerce and Industry. TASS reports a bill has been introduced in the State Duma on tax deductions for businesses supporting sports sections. Новости Москвы reports heating will be switched on in Moscow tomorrow. ASTRA reports that a mother of a mobilized soldier, previously detained, was fined 33,000 rubles for protesting near the RF Ministry of Defense. TASS reports a fire at Novosibirsk Zoo, with two buildings burning and the fire now localized. TASS reports a bill was introduced to the State Duma allowing a fine for driving without OSAGO only once per day if caught by cameras multiple times. ASTRA reports a prosecutor's check has been organized for the fire at Novosibirsk Zoo. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a fire in Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast, with photo messages of significant fire. ASTRA reports Rostov Oblast authorities admit reduced oil product production and export due to UAV attacks. Mash na Donbashe shares video and reports on a fire at Novosibirsk Zoo, with footage showing a forest fire and an illuminated object resembling a camel. Alex Parker Returns shares a video report of an ex-official fleeing a St. Petersburg court and hiding in the Armenian consulate. ASTRA reports a Moscow court will consider a lawsuit from a "combat veteran" against Alla Pugacheva. STERNENKO reports fire and impacts in the Valuyki region of Belgorod Oblast, near railway infrastructure, from a UAV attack. NEW: Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны reports missile strike on Belgorod, 6 injured civilians. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares multiple videos/photos of impacts in different parts of RF, including Kursk Oblast (Lgov) and Taganrog. NEW: Colonelcassad shares video about the detention of a father and son involved in sabotage in Samara Oblast. NEW: ТАСС reports the number of citizens' appeals to Putin's reception has significantly decreased after the entry into force of norms prohibiting anonymous electronic complaints. NEW: ТАСС reports the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) proposes not to allocate shares to foreigners in housing purchased with maternity capital. NEW: TASS reports Italian actress Claudia Cardinale died at 87. NEW: TASS reports a Steam outage in Russia. NEW: TASS reports a proposal to introduce voluntary OSAGO for couriers using personal mobility devices. NEW: ТАСС reports the average nominal salary in RF was 103.2 thousand rubles in June and is expected to grow by 3-4% by year-end. NEW: TASS reports that Russians do not have enough time to take their 28 days of annual leave. NEW: TASS reports the Ministry of Education supports an initiative to allow ninth-graders who fail state exams to pursue vocational training. NEW: TASS reports two people were injured by shrapnel after a UAV attack in Rostov Oblast. NEW: TASS reports that seven out of ten Russians swear regularly, with one third swearing daily, with one third swearing daily, according to a VCIOM poll. NEW: Полиция Хабаровского края reports on a resident of the Vanino district losing 220 thousand rubles to fraudsters. NEW: TASS reports The Coca-Cola Company may lose trademark rights in Russia by end of October. NEW: TASS reports the "SRZP" party (Social Justice for Russia) insists on introducing free hot meals for all schoolchildren from 2026. This indicates ongoing social welfare initiatives aimed at maintaining domestic stability. NEW: ТАСС reports for residents damaged by a gas explosion in Tolyatti, temporary accommodation centers have been prepared. NEW: ТАСС reports Samara airport operations are temporarily restricted. NEW: ТАСС reports that a terrorist attack against an official of the regional branch of the Federal Bailiff Service (ФССП) was prevented in Novosibirsk by the FSB. This highlights continued internal security threats and RF counter-terrorism efforts. NEW: ТАСС reports a massive UAV attack was repelled in Volgograd Oblast, and ASTRA confirms that air defense repelled a drone attack on fuel and energy facilities in Volgograd Oblast. This indicates a new UAF deep strike target area and RF air defense activity. NEW: ТАСС reports that power outages occurred in one district of Belgorod Oblast due to a UAF attack, according to the head of the Krasnoyaruzhsky district administration. This confirms ongoing UAF deep strikes on RF territory. NEW: ASTRA reports that the FSB reported preventing a terrorist attack in Novosibirsk against an official of the Federal Bailiff Service. This highlights the ongoing internal security efforts by RF. NEW: ТАСС reports Maxim Katz (recognized as a foreign agent in RF) has been arrested in absentia for violating foreign agent laws. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of the FSB detaining a resident of Yekaterinburg on suspicion of financing UAF, indicating continued internal security actions. NEW: ASTRA reports a Moscow court has upheld the absentee arrest of Maxim Katz. NEW: Север.Реалии reports an ex-official of Rosreestr fled court in St. Petersburg and was found dead in a toilet in the Armenian consulate. This is a significant internal security incident involving a high-profile individual. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 announces the autumn conscription drive from October 1 to December 31, with electronic summonses. This indicates a new phase of RF mobilization.
UAF Deep Strike (Personnel Targeting): Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video showing a Russian "occupier" being eliminated by drone operators from the 4th "Wormbusters" unit. STERNENKO claims a new record for FPV drone penetration into RF deep rear (55km from front line, 40km from contact line) targeting military transport. STERNENKO shares video of "Hornets of Dovbush" unit destroying RF transport on the Pokrovsk direction with drone strikes. UAF "Николаевский Ванёк" shares video showing a captured RF soldier on the Novopavlivka direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Air Force accurately struck an occupier's command post in southern Ukraine. UAF "Підрозділ Shadow" shares drone footage of precision strikes against fortified Russian positions. STERNENKO reports an occupier being killed on the Pokrovsk direction with UAF assistance. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS claims confirmed destruction of two Iskander launchers. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares drone footage claiming 18 Russian assault troops were burned alive by new napalm fragmentation bombs. Alex Parker Returns shares FPV drone footage showing a motorcycle with two individuals being attacked. STERNENKO claims confirmed destruction of an "Iskander" system at the Molkino training ground in Kuban using 14 strike drones. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА shares a video of a drone strike on a group of RF soldiers in a forest, indicating successful UAF action. STERNENKO shares FPV drone footage showing the destruction of a car and engagement with military trucks/personal, indicating continued UAF tactical successes. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА shares a video showing an FPV drone strike on personnel in a forested area, likely RF. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of a drone-kamikaze hitting a Russian soldier, followed by the soldier appearing severely incapacitated. MoD Russia shares a video compilation showcasing a "series of accurate drone strikes," including hits on ground targets, explosions, fires, and targeting of vehicle positions, potential supply depots, and command posts. STERNENKO shares video showing aerial reconnaissance footage with targeting reticles, an explosion, and a QR code. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the SBU detained a 31-year-old local FSB agent in Khmelnytskyi. ASTRA reports that a summer UAF strike on the Molkino training ground damaged "Iskander" OTRK and "Pantsir-S1" anti-aircraft missile-gun systems. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares videos of strikes against the enemy in various parts of RF. NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video of a distressed Russian soldier, indicating significant psychological impact or injury. NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video of a 62-year-old Russian soldier surrendering, claiming he was misled into service as an assault trooper. NEW: Colonelcassad shares an interview with a captured Russian soldier. NEW: Colonelcassad shares photo messages (18+) of a deceased UAF soldier, indicating RF efforts to highlight UAF casualties. NEW: Colonelcassad posts a video of a captured UAF serviceman recounting being tied to a tree and beaten by his commander, "Babai," for desertion. This is a significant RF information operation to discredit UAF leadership and demoralize troops. The soldier claims he was part of a "convict" brigade (225th) and that deserters were killed, highlighting dire conditions. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a distressed man in military attire stating his group has left him and he needs help. This indicates an RF soldier in distress, potentially abandoned or separated from his unit.
UAF Air Defense Results: Сили оборони Півдня України reports 23 "Shahed-136" UAVs were destroyed in the Southern operational zone. UAF Air Force (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ) confirms 103 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed from a total of 115 launched by RF, indicating an 89.5% interception rate. UAF Air Force declared an "All Clear" for ballistic missile threats. Basurin о главном shares a video demonstrating a custom-made "setkomyot" (net gun) designed to be fired from a rifle to disable FPV drones. Николаевский Ванёк reports total Shahed (moped) targets. NEW: ТАСС reports 19 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF regions and the Black Sea in two hours. NEW: ASTRA reports 19 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF regions and Black Sea. NEW: Николаевский Ванёк reports on the remaining "moped" targets. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues an "Attention!" warning. NEW: ТАСС reports that over 70 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russia overnight by air defense forces, according to the Ministry of Defense. NEW: ТАСС reports that air defense forces and the Black Sea Fleet shot down 16 UAVs over Sevastopol overnight, with no damage to city facilities, according to Razvozhayev. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 126 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed from a total of 152 launched by RF, indicating an 82.9% interception rate. NEW: Сили оборони Півдня України reports 16 "Shahed-136" UAVs were destroyed in the Southern operational zone during the night.
RF Casualties/Manpower Issues: "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" shares a UAF video discussing significant RF manpower shortages and rapid personnel depletion. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video from an RF soldier stating only a company remains from his 700-man battalion, with most mobilized KIA/WIA. ASTRA reports an Indian student was sent to war with Ukraine. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares graphic video from a combat zone showing human remains. Colonelcassad reports 15 foreign mercenaries killed and over 100 wounded in a strike on a Kirovohrad training ground on July 21st (historical claim, unverified). "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" makes an appeal for donations for "vital drones," stating they collected less than 10k rubles in a day. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares a video of a Russian BMP mechanic-driver expressing pessimism about an upcoming assault with a new crew, stating he was the only survivor from the previous one. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a Russian soldier stating over 20 personnel were killed, blaming incompetent command. "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" shares a video message with the caption "🤬Командование доводит военных до самоубийства," showing a distressed soldier requesting assistance for another incapacitated soldier. РБК-Україна reports Trump's claim of "5,000 to 7,000 young soldiers... from both sides" being killed "every week." БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports a "huge incident" again in the ranks of the RF Armed Forces. "Военкор Котенок" shares a video appeal from Russian soldiers on the Kharkiv direction requesting tactical medical kits and body armor. "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" shares a photo message about a "fight for the son's rights" being labeled "discrediting the RF army." MoD Russia shares a video of an alleged AFU POW stating his commander tied soldiers to a tree and beat them with sticks for going AWOL. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares a video of a young man discussing surviving 11 days without food and frostbite, suggesting severe conditions for RF personnel. MoD Russia shares a video of servicemen of the Yug Group of Forces practicing assault operations in the rear of the LPR, showing one soldier appearing injured or in distress, and another providing aid. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a post about "Airborne brotherhood, family!" which is a morale-boosting message. NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video of a distressed Russian soldier and a video of a 62-year-old Russian soldier surrendering. NEW: Colonelcassad shares an interview with a captured Russian soldier. NEW: Colonelcassad shares photo messages (18+) of a deceased UAF soldier, indicating RF efforts to highlight UAF casualties. NEW: Colonelcassad posts a video of a captured UAF serviceman recounting being tied to a tree and beaten by his commander, "Babai," for desertion. This narrative, if widely disseminated, could impact UAF morale and recruitment. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of a soldier in camouflage uniform carrying another soldier, who appears to be wounded or incapacitated, on his back. This indicates RF continues to suffer casualties and require medical evacuation, even at the tactical level. NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 970 Russian occupiers were eliminated in the last day. NEW: РБК-Україна shares a graphic with estimated daily RF losses, including 970 personnel, 11 tanks, 18 armored combat vehicles, and other equipment. NEW: Colonelcassad shares a video showcasing a Russian soldier, "Sava," from Krasnoyarsk, recounting his combat experience, including being injured by FPV drones and gas, successfully repelling an assault, and receiving the Order of Courage. NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares a video of a former prisoner not receiving payments for a combat injury, which will further exacerbate morale issues among RF forces, particularly those recruited from penal colonies. NEW: Военкор Котенок shares a video claiming manipulations with a "Volga" fighter's severe injury, recorded as a domestic trauma. This indicates institutional issues with injury reporting and support for RF personnel, potentially further undermining morale. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a distressed man in military attire stating his group has left him and he needs help. This reinforces narratives of RF soldiers being abandoned or in distress.
UAF Corruption: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports uncovering a military unit commander in Rivne region who forced subordinates to build his private house. A man will be tried in Kharkiv for shooting and beating a veteran of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Misappropriation of over 5.3 billion UAH from a bank is also under investigation. The Prosecutor General's Office returned 17 hectares of Ministry of Defense land, valued at over 119 million UAH. NEW: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports uncovering illegal kaolin mining in Cherkasy region, valued at almost 190 million UAH, indicating continued efforts to combat corruption and resource exploitation. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares images of an SBU operation, showing an individual being apprehended in a residential setting. The caption indicates the SBU detained an FSB agent who was adjusting Russian strikes on southern Ukraine, suggesting a successful counter-intelligence operation.
Energy Infrastructure Damage (Ukraine): Гендиректор «Нафтогазу» Корецький reports that since February, Russians have destroyed about 42% of Ukraine's daily gas production capabilities. The oil refining industry was completely destroyed in the summer. "Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны" shares a Washington Post article snippet stating Kyiv anticipates large-scale attacks on its energy infrastructure in coming months. RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia has launched a large-scale wave of attacks on the Ukrainian railway system. "Военкор Котенок" shares a Washington Post screenshot claiming Kyiv expects large-scale attacks on energy infrastructure in coming months. RBC-Україна reports a tenth blackout at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant since Russian occupation. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) reports that power supply to ZNPP was cut after a UAF strike. UAF-aligned sources are holding a virtual meeting with the Minister of Energy and other sector representatives to discuss substation defense. ASTRA reports that RF forces struck Kharkiv, causing power outages in the city. NEW: РБК-Україна reports UN Secretary-General António Guterres states Russia is trying to create blackouts ahead of winter. NEW: Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны states a massive attack is underway on the energy infrastructure of border regions, likely referring to UAF strikes on Russia. NEW: TASS reports parts of five districts in Kursk Oblast are without electricity after UAF strikes. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video and photo messages of a large fire at night in Kharkiv, confirming power outages. NEW: НгП раZVедка (RF source) claims a power substation "Ivanivka" in Kharkiv city was destroyed overnight by 21 strike UAVs as part of "radical decommunization." NEW: ТАСС reports UAF continuously shelling the damaged 750 kV "Dniprovska" power line of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), delaying its restoration. This directly impacts Ukrainian energy infrastructure and RF narratives. NEW: Colonelcassad shares video showing strikes by "Geran" drones on the Ivanivka substation in Kharkiv on September 23, 2025, confirming the target and date of the RF strike on critical infrastructure.
RF Logistics (Fuel Shortage): ASTRA reports the disappearance of A-95 gasoline in Sakhalin. Colonelcassad shares a video titled "Collection for the 4th auto-column," showing camouflaged civilian vehicles being repaired and prepared. ASTRA reports the Druzhba oil pipeline station in Bryansk Oblast was shelled by missiles. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant halted gasoline and diesel production due to a UAV attack on September 22. RBC-Україна reports that RF diesel exports fell to a 5-year low due to drone strikes on refineries. Colonelcassad shares a video of UAZ vans being prepared for a 4th auto-column, reinforcing reliance on civilian vehicles for logistics. ASTRA reports Rostov Oblast authorities admit reduced oil product production and export due to UAV attacks. NEW: ASTRA reports a petrochemical complex in Bashkiria, likely Salavat, has been attacked again. This is corroborated by Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, and STERNENKO, all sharing videos/photos of significant fires and smoke plumes, indicating a successful deep strike on critical RF energy infrastructure. The attack is explicitly linked to "good drones" (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) and described as a "morning at the Bashkir NPP after meeting good drones" (STERNENKO). NEW: Два майора queries about the state of oil refineries and gasoline at gas stations, indicating ongoing concern about fuel supply issues within RF. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports a fire at the Zenzevatka oil pumping station in Volgograd Oblast, Russia, based on media reports. NEW: Два майора shares video of Ukrainian UAVs attacking the Salavat oil refinery.
NATO Response: NATO states Russia bears full responsibility for escalatory airspace violations. NATO reaffirms its commitment to Article 5 amid Russian drone flights over Europe. RBC-Ukraine reports NATO accuses Russia of escalation and threatens a resolute response. TASS reports NATO did not see an "immediate threat" from Russian fighters allegedly invading Estonian airspace, citing Rutte. Alex Parker Returns echoes TASS, stating NATO Secretary General Rutte said NATO did not see an "immediate threat" from alleged Russian fighter incursions into Estonian airspace. Оперативний ЗСУ and "Два майора" report NATO Secretary General Rutte stated decisions to shoot down Russian aircraft violating Alliance airspace would be made in real-time. "Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны" re-posts Rutte's statement, emphasizing that NATO will not shoot down every aircraft violating airspace but will assess in real-time. WarGonzo reports the Polish Foreign Minister threatened Russia in the UN Security Council. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Norway states Russia violated its airspace three times this year. Operatyvny ZSU reports that US Secretary of State Rubio stated NATO will not shoot down Russian aircraft if they do not engage in aggressive actions. РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report Trump stating that NATO countries should shoot down Russian aircraft violating Alliance airspace. NEW: ТАСС reports Britain is ready to act to protect the sky over NATO countries, stated UK Foreign Minister Yvette Cooper. NEW: ТАСС reports Pentagon head Pete Hegseth stated he would monitor the situation with fighters in Estonia, noting any violation of NATO airspace is unacceptable. NEW: ТАСС reports Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin stated to "Izvestia" that the "war party in the EU" is trying to disrupt dialogue between the US and Russia by accusing Russia of provocations over alleged NATO airspace violations. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Polish President Navrotsky states Russian aggression is purely ideological. NEW: ASTRA shares video of the Polish President speaking at the UN General Assembly, condemning Russia's colonial ambitions. NEW: ТАСС shares Maria Zakharova's comment about anticipating trouble in Moldova if the people cannot repel Sandu's ideas of "Romanianization," linking it to alleged NATO/Western influence.
RF Leadership: Putin is holding a meeting with Pasechnik (LPR leader). Putin also held a meeting with Shoigu, discussing the "line of combat contact" and "full-scale combat actions." Kadyrov_95 shares a video of a meeting with Denis Pushilin, Head of the DNR. NEW: TASS reports Lavrov arrived in New York for the 80th UN General Assembly. NEW: TASS reports the meeting between Rubio and Lavrov in New York is scheduled for Wednesday at 12:00 local time (19:00 MSK), indicating an important upcoming diplomatic engagement. NEW: TASS publishes footage of Lavrov arriving in New York, reinforcing his presence at the UNGA. NEW: РБК-Україна shares photo of Rubio's meeting schedule, confirming the Lavrov meeting. NEW: РБК-Україна shares video of a Russian Il-96 aircraft, likely related to diplomatic travel of a high-ranking official like Lavrov. NEW: Два майора reports "Novorossiysk. Head:", indicating local leadership is engaged. NEW: Басурин о главном shares a photo of Lavrov arriving in New York, emphasizing Russia's resolve on the world stage. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Lavrov arriving in New York. NEW: ТАСС reports Peskov denied Trump's assertion that Russia is a "paper tiger," stating Russia is a bear and "paper bears" do not exist, indicating high-level RF official response to international criticism. NEW: ТАСС reports a phone conversation between Putin and Trump is not yet scheduled but can be quickly organized, signaling potential for high-level diplomatic engagement. NEW: ТАСС reports Putin remains ready to meet with Zelenskyy, but without preparation, it would be a "PR event doomed to failure," as emphasized by Peskov. This is an RF condition for diplomatic engagement.
US Military Aid: US Air Force signed a $26M contract with Lockheed Martin to support the F-16 transfer program to Ukraine. Colonelcassad shares satellite imagery of Ozernoye airfield, Zhytomyr Oblast, showing new hangars likely for F-16s. RBC-Ukraine reports that Syrskyi reported to the US Commander about the front situation, prioritizing air defense and missiles. TASS reports Trump stated that American weapon supplies to Ukraine will continue. Alex Parker Returns reports Trump believes the US will not provide free weapons, but NATO countries will buy US weapons for Ukraine. NEW: ТАСС reports Trump preserves the possibility of tightening sanctions against RF and supplying weapons to Ukraine, according to Rubio.
Components for RF Weaponry: Ukraine's Prosecutor General's Office highlights the global challenge of preventing the supply of components to Russia. "Север.Реалии" reports 20 people detained in Poland for selling ~600 expensive cars to Belarus and Russia, circumventing sanctions. The reappearance of Western brands in Russia ('TEBOE' stores) indicates persistent efforts to circumvent sanctions on consumer goods, which likely extends to military components.
Shahed Range: Defense Express analysis indicates Russian Shahed drones can reach almost all European capitals, except one, emphasizing their strategic threat.
Other: Alex Parker Returns reports a Chinese container ship (Heng Yang 9, Panamanian flag) arrived in a Crimean port, ignoring sanctions. "Два майора" shares a video of RF personnel with a rocket launcher, discussing equipment and morale. RF State Duma adopted in first reading a bill granting veteran status to volunteers who contracted with MoD between Oct 2022 and Sep 2023. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts anti-migrant propaganda. UAF General Staff shares a video demonstrating the 'Army+' mobile application for changing service location. TASS reports the State Duma adopted in the first reading a bill on mortgage holidays for families with children up to 1.5 years old. TASS also reports the State Duma adopted in the first reading a project on premises for student families in university dormitories. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими promotes a cybersecurity workshop for teenagers. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a new unit has been created in the NGU "Khartiia" corps holding defenses in Kharkiv Oblast, with a focus on unmanned systems. Николаевский Ванёк shares a video of the "Mriya 4.5.0" drone being delivered to the 3rd Omega Special Forces unit on the Pokrovsk direction. "НгП раZVедка" shares a video of Ukrainian soldiers posing with multiple boxes of thermal imagers. "Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України" shares a video showcasing the use of a UAF ground robotic complex for evacuating wounded soldiers. "Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"" makes an appeal for donations for UAF units. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno shares a photo analysis, possibly of military vehicles. Олексій Білошицький shares a video of Kyiv Patrol Police assisting in a childbirth. ТАСС reports 3 of 13 Russians injured in a car accident in Alanya, Turkey, remain in serious condition. Новости Москвы shares a photo of a "gothic dump truck" installed at a museum in ZIL. Старше Эдды asks how Americans will receive Putin's initiative to adhere to the New START treaty for another year. Народная милиция ДНР shares video of humanitarian aid (solar panels, batteries) delivered to a rehabilitation center for wounded fighters. AV БогомаZ shares photos of a meeting with RF Minister of Construction and Housing. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a new fatality from RF strike in Sviatoshynskyi district of Kyiv on Sep 7. "Два майора" shares a video titled "Evacuation of the smallest," depicting kittens being bottle-fed. ASTRA reports the Chinese container ship has entered occupied Sevastopol three times. DeepState posts a recruitment advertisement for IT specialists. Rybar posts a graphic for "Rybar in MAX," likely a new social media or streaming platform presence. Rybar shares a map depicting military exercises named "TARASSIS" in the Baltic Sea region between September 1st and October 20th, 2025. Oleg Synehubov, Head of Kharkiv ODA, shares photos of constructing new safe learning spaces for children in Kharkiv Oblast. Архангел Спецназа shares a video titled "From rescuer of bodies to rescuer of souls." TASS reports Canada's attempt to seize an An-124 aircraft from Russia's Volga-Dnepr is "robbery". Fighterbomber shares two photo messages labeled "Beautiful from a subscriber." "Мотовилихинские заводы" (RF source) presented a new MLRS "Sarma" - this indicates ongoing RF military industrial production and upgrades. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares multiple photo messages with military personnel and equipment. НгП раZVедка shares a video of a woman singing a Russian song with Russian flags in the audience. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a request for help/support for an EcoFlow DELTA 2 Max charging station, spare parts for drones, and equipment for soldiers of the 57th Separate Motorized Brigade, 10th Separate Motorized Battalion, and 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a "Call for the Paratrooper" (СБОР ДЛЯ ДЕСАНТНИКА), likely a fundraising effort for RF forces. Colonelcassad presents a project for the restoration and reconstruction of Luhansk Airport. Полиция Хабаровского края shares a positive morale-boosting message. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) is participating in a high-level UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine. Zelenskiy / Official is participating in a high-level UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video of operators from the 73rd Marine Center of Special Operations conducting special actions in RF rear, with footage showing individuals in camouflage and an RPG, suggesting continued deep reconnaissance and sabotage operations. NEW: Kotsnews shares a photo of a significant fire with smoke plumes, likely from an explosion. NEW: MoD Russia shares photos of "Top News Today," likely propaganda. NEW: Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны reports a massive attack on energy infrastructure of border regions. NEW: ТАСС reports temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been introduced at Volgograd airport. NEW: Rybar shares photo messages with the caption "Аэростаты на службе ВСУ" (Aerostats in service of the AFU), indicating RF is noting UAF adaptive tactics. NEW: Colonelcassad shares a video of a nighttime explosion with fire and smoke. NEW: ТАСС reports Viktor Vodolatsky, First Deputy Chairman of the Duma Committee for CIS Affairs, Eurasian Integration, and Relations with Compatriots, states that regions reunited with the Russian Federation will repay investments, contributing at least 10% to GDP. NEW: Воин DV reports that the US and Japan have signed an agreement on AI development for unmanned aviation needs. This highlights Western advancements in drone warfare that could impact future battlefield dynamics. NEW: ТАСС reports the first arctic unmanned boat "Breeze" was shown at the "Neva-2025" exhibition. This indicates RF development of advanced unmanned maritime systems with potential military applications. NEW: ТАСС shares a video of popular musician Kasper giving his first interview for TASS on his performance before soldiers, aiming to boost morale among RF forces. NEW: ТАСС reports that figure skater Mark Kondratyuk has been added to the database of the Ukrainian extremist website "Mirotvorets," according to the resource's data. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares images of Ukrainians observing a moment of silence. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares a video of a moment of silence. NEW: ТАСС releases a video of the "Severny Veter" drone, which recently underwent trials in the SVO zone, depicting its assembly, launch, and aerial reconnaissance capabilities, including thermal imaging of Ukrainian positions. This indicates RF's continued development and deployment of new drone technology. NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА shares photo messages labeled "Магуры добрались до Португалии" with images of USVs and what appears to be Portugal's coastline. This is an RF information operation alleging UAF USV reach to NATO territory, which needs further investigation.
Poland-Belarus Border: ASTRA and Оперативний ЗСУ report that Poland will reopen border crossings with Belarus from midnight on September 25, following the conclusion of "Zapad-2025" exercises. "Два майора" echoes this. ТАСС reports the Belarusian State Customs Committee is ready to open the border with Poland and awaits official documents from Warsaw. Север.Реалии also reports Poland will reopen border crossings with Belarus from September 25. Colonelcassad reports Poland reopened border with Belarus, noting Ukrainian response of calling Tusk a "Muscovite dog." NEW: ТАСС reports Belarus has received official notification from Poland on border opening from September 25.
UAF Morale / Outlook: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a photo message with a caption from Yanis Tereshchenko stating, "There are no grounds to believe that this war can end in the nearest future." Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими held a meeting with families of servicemen from the 105th Border Detachment. Олександр Вілкул provides a briefing on the results of September 23. STERNENKO shares a photo message quoting Trump stating Ukraine, with EU support, can fight and WIN, returning to its original form. РБК-Україна reports Trump stated Ukraine can return to its original form and possibly achieve more. Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны also reports Trump's statement on Ukraine's ability to fight and WIN. Alex Parker Returns reports Trump believes Ukraine, with EU help, can regain all its territory and even advance into Russian territory, directly boosting UAF morale and confidence and signaling strong Western backing. NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares Zelenskyy's statements about his meeting with Trump, likely to boost morale and highlight international support. NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy explains how he convinced Trump not to believe Putin's "fairytales" about the battlefield situation. NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy's statement that Trump now believes in Ukraine's ability to regain all its territory and views Trump as a "game-changer." NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy at the UN Security Council states if there is no war in the sky, Russia cannot continue to fight on the ground, emphasizing the continued strategic focus on air defense capabilities. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares videos of Zelenskyy's interview on Fox News, further amplifying his positive diplomatic engagements. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares images of Ukrainians observing a moment of silence for fallen defenders. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares a video of a moment of silence. NEW: STERNENKO is hosting a stream about Trump, indicating continued public engagement with these diplomatic developments. NEW: STERNENKO shares a video of a pro-Russian figure being indignant about a "forced pause" on Khreshchatyk for a minute of silence, framing it as a "cemetery." This indicates internal Ukrainian dissent being amplified by RF IO. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaking at the UN, stating that Putin is afraid to sit face-to-face with Ukraine and the world, and to openly admit that he only seeks war. This frames RF leadership as unwilling to engage in genuine peace.
UAF Resource Mobilization: "Николаевский Ванёк" reports that less than 3,000,000 UAH remains to be collected after approximately one day of fundraising. РБК-Україна reports Reserve+ app functionality has been restored. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports Reserve+ app restored. Оперативний ЗСУ shares an appeal for an EcoFlow charging station, drone spare parts, and soldier equipment. NEW: TASS reports Ukraine expects to start drone production for the US by mid-2026. NEW: TASS reports Ukraine is requesting an additional $15 billion from the West for military-industrial complex development in 2025-2026. This indicates a significant future resource requirement and ambition for indigenous production. NEW: РБК-Україна reports the "Rubizh" National Guard Brigade is collecting funds to restore destroyed property and equipment. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing kilometers of fiber optic cables from drones, which "do not biologically decompose and remain in the environment for hundreds of years, potentially releasing toxic substances." This suggests a new UAF propaganda angle focusing on the environmental impact of RF drone usage.
US Sanctions Policy: TASS quotes Marco Rubio stating the US is not inclined to impose new sanctions on Moscow as long as Europe continues to purchase large volumes of Russian oil and gas. RBC-Ukraine also reports Rubio's statement. РБК-Україна reports Trump's statement at the UN GA: "If you illegally enter the United States, you go to prison or return to where you came from, or maybe even further." NEW: ТАСС reports Trump preserves the possibility of tightening sanctions against RF and supplying weapons to Ukraine, according to Rubio.
EU Policy: TASS reports Ursula von der Leyen stated the EU will "forever" abandon Russian energy carriers by 2027. РБК-Україна reports the European Commission explained how a "drone wall" will protect the EU. NEW: ТАСС reports European project "drone wall" could be implemented within a year, citing EU Commissioner for Defense Andrius Kubilius. This indicates a focus on border security against drone threats from RF.
Iran: Colonelcassad reports Iranian sources claim Iran is acquiring Su-35 and MiG-29 fighters, as well as S-400 systems from Russia, and HQ-9 SAMs from China. Colonelcassad advises Iran not to negotiate with Trump. NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy stating on Fox News that Iran will never be on Ukraine's side.
Russia Internal Affairs: TASS reports a lawsuit has been filed against Alla Pugacheva over her statements about Chechen separatist leader Dzhokhar Dudayev. Старше Эдды reports RT learned that traitor Stupnikov's mother insisted his ex-wife leave Transbaikalia. WarGonzo shares a special report on "Spiritual Brotherhood: Clergy marching in step with fighters." NEW: Новости Москвы reports the Russian Ministry of Finance has submitted amendments to the tax code, including increasing VAT from 20% to 22%, to the government. This is a significant economic policy shift. NEW: Два майора states the Ministry of Finance proposes these changes (increasing VAT) to primarily finance defense and security. NEW: Новости Москвы reports a new Orthodox messenger "Zosima" has been launched in Russia, indicating state-supported efforts to create alternative communication platforms with an ideological bent.
Diplomatic/Legal: TASS reports Nebenzya stated Palestinians are not objects of social experiments and have the right to sovereign existence. TASS reports Nebenzya stated that meaningless slaughter in the Middle East will continue if the US doesn't realize that the Palestinian issue can only be resolved through diplomacy. NEW: РБК-Україна shares Zelenskyy's photo message stating the Budapest Memorandum failed, leading Ukraine to build a new security architecture. NEW: Офіс Генерального прокурора posts an image of a moment of silence.
Weapon Smuggling: Colonelcassad reports that NATO weapons from the Ukrainian direction have surfaced with Spanish drug cartels.
RF Construction Projects: Colonelcassad presents a project for the restoration and reconstruction of Luhansk Airport.
India: NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy stating on Fox News that India is mostly with Ukraine.
US First Lady: NEW: TASS reports Melania Trump rejected requests from Ukraine's First Lady Olena Zelenska for a meeting in New York.
Air Traffic Restrictions (RF): NEW: TASS reports temporary restrictions have been introduced at Sochi and Gelendzhik airports. NEW: TASS reports temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been introduced at Volgograd airport. This is likely a security measure in response to recent drone attacks on Russian territory, not directly related to battlefield geometry but impacting Russian internal movement and possibly military air logistics. NEW: ТАСС reports a massive UAV attack was repelled in Volgograd Oblast, and ASTRA confirms that air defense repelled a drone attack on fuel and energy facilities in Volgograd Oblast. This confirms a new UAF deep strike target area and significant RF air defense activity. NEW: ТАСС reports that power outages occurred in one district of Belgorod Oblast due to a UAF attack, according to the head of the Krasnoyaruzhsky district administration. This confirms ongoing UAF deep strikes on RF territory. NEW: ТАСС reports the Orenburg airport is temporarily not accepting or sending planes, citing Rosaviatsia. NEW: ASTRA reports temporary restrictions have been introduced at Orenburg airport for receiving and sending planes, citing Rosaviatsia. NEW: ТАСС reports restrictions on air traffic at Ufa airport. NEW: TASS reports that Samara airport operations have resumed.
RF Drone Development (Civilian/Dual-Use): NEW: TASS reports that Russia is developing drone-delivery postamats (parcel lockers). This is a civilian technological development, but could have dual-use applications for logistics. NEW: ТАСС reports the first arctic unmanned boat "Breeze" was shown at the "Neva-2025" exhibition. This indicates RF development of advanced unmanned maritime systems with potential military applications. NEW: ТАСС reports Russian operators of unmanned aerial vehicles in the area of the special military operation destroyed a tank and two octocopters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, citing the Ministry of Defense. This demonstrates ongoing RF military production and deployment of advanced drone systems. NEW: ТАСС releases a video of the "Severny Veter" drone, which recently underwent trials in the SVO zone, depicting its assembly, launch, and aerial reconnaissance capabilities, including thermal imaging of Ukrainian positions. This indicates RF's continued development and deployment of new drone technology.
RF Information Operations (UNGA): NEW: TASS shares a video of Georgy Muradov, Permanent Representative of Crimea to the President of Russia, stating that the US is beginning to understand that a deal with RF will avoid World War III. He also discusses Russia's nuclear capabilities and the need for dialogue. This is a continuation of RF IO to frame the conflict as a choice between negotiation (on RF terms) and global escalation. NEW: ТАСС shares a video of popular musician Kasper giving his first interview for TASS on his performance before soldiers, aiming to boost morale among RF forces through cultural propaganda. NEW: Басурин о главном shares a photo of Lavrov arriving in New York to show Russia's determination to remain a key global player. NEW: Kotsnews provides a commentary piece titled "What Zelensky showed Trump. And what he didn't," indicating RF's immediate analysis and counter-narrative to UAF diplomatic engagements.
RF Propaganda (Domestic Social Media Shift): NEW: TASS reports 59% of bloggers have moved to Telegram following advertising restrictions on Instagram. This indicates a shift in the RF information environment, with a greater concentration of influence on Telegram, a platform less easily controlled by external censorship.
RF Internal Security Update (Maxym Katz): NEW: TASS reports Maxim Katz (recognized as a foreign agent in RF) has been arrested in absentia for violating foreign agent laws. NEW: ASTRA reports a Moscow court has upheld the absentee arrest of Maxim Katz.
WarGonzo Frontline Summary: NEW: WarGonzo provides a "Frontline summary for the morning of 24.09.25", including tactical maps for Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv and Sumy fronts, indicating continued RF operations and claimed advances on these axes. NEW: WarGonzo shares a photo message about "Grigory Potemkin: How the Russian hinterland gives birth to creators of empire," which is a propaganda piece glorifying Russian historical figures and potentially linking them to the ongoing conflict to boost national pride.
RF Budget: NEW: TASS reports the RF Ministry of Finance has submitted a package of bills to the cabinet, including amendments to the 2025 budget law and the 2026-2028 budget. The priorities include social support for citizens and SVO participants, RF security, and achieving national goals by 2030. They also propose lowering the income threshold for taxpayers using a simplified taxation system from 60 million to 10 million rubles, introducing a 25% profit tax on bookmakers, and extending maternity capital until 2030 with inflation indexing. NEW: ASTRA reports the Ministry of Finance proposed to increase VAT from 20% to 22% for "financing the defense and security of Russia."
RF Military Aviation: NEW: Басурин о главном shares a video of new Su-35S fighter jets being delivered to the Russian army after ground and flight factory tests. This indicates continued RF military industrial production and capability upgrades.
RF Troop Protection/Equipment Development: NEW: Colonelcassad shares a video of Rostec testing a lightweight version of the "Obereg" assault body armor, highlighting RF efforts to improve soldier protection and combat effectiveness.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (Confidence: HIGH)

Current conditions are generally clear and favorable for air operations across most of Ukraine. A cold snap is expected, with wet snow possible in Moscow by end of week, and temperatures dropping to -2°C in the Carpathians with possible snow soon. The strongest geomagnetic storm in 3 months (G3) continues to impact satellite communications and GPS for both sides. TASS reports that the number of solar flares will continue to grow. Thermal imagery from RF drone footage north of Chasiv Yar indicates low temperatures (-7.5°C to -12°C). Temporary restrictions on air traffic at Sochi, Saratov, Samara, Nizhnekamsk, Kazan, and Gelendzhik airports were introduced and then lifted, likely due to perceived threats rather than solely weather. The reported use of air balloons in drone attacks on Russian regions could be influenced by weather patterns and present a different challenge for air defense systems. Bad weather is forecast for Kharkiv Oblast, which could impact ground and air operations there. UAF source "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares a video of a severely burnt area in Kherson Oblast, showing significant environmental impact, likely from previous military activity. Новости Москвы reports heating will be switched on in Moscow tomorrow, indicating colder weather. A fire at Novosibirsk Zoo and its localization are reported. ASTRA reports a prosecutor's check has been organized for the fire at Novosibirsk Zoo. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a fire in Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast. Mash na Donbashe shares video of a forest fire at Novosibirsk Zoo, further confirming environmental impact. STERNENKO reports fire and impacts in the Valuyki region of Belgorod Oblast, near railway infrastructure, from a UAV attack, indicating environmental damage and disruption. Explosions and subsequent fires are reported in Kharkiv. NEW: Kotsnews shares photo of fire and smoke, possibly from an explosion, indicating environmental impact from ongoing conflict. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of significant fire/explosion in Kursk (Lgov), attributed to a UAF strike on RF territory. NEW: Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны shares photo and video messages depicting a significant fire, attributed to a massive attack on energy infrastructure of border regions. NEW: ТАСС reports temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure have been introduced at Saratov airport. NEW: ТАСС reports air defense forces are repelling a UAV attack in seven municipalities of Rostov Oblast. A private house caught fire in Sholokhov district. NEW: Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны shares video and photo messages claiming powerful fires on enemy objects in Kharkiv and disappearance of light, indicating significant environmental damage. NEW: Colonelcassad shares a video of a nighttime explosion with fire and smoke. NEW: TASS reports five animals died in a fire at Novosibirsk Zoo. NEW: ASTRA shares multiple photo messages showing the aftermath of a nighttime RF attack on Zaporizhzhia, highlighting destruction and significant environmental impact. NEW: ТАСС reports for residents damaged by a gas explosion in Tolyatti, temporary accommodation centers have been prepared, indicating a civilian incident with environmental impact. NEW: ТАСС reports Samara airport operations are temporarily restricted, possibly due to weather or security alerts. NEW: TASS reports temporary restrictions have been introduced at Sochi and Gelendzhik airports. This indicates a widespread environmental or security concern impacting air travel in RF. NEW: ТАСС reports that power outages occurred in one district of Belgorod Oblast due to a UAF attack. This confirms further environmental impact from UAF deep strikes on RF territory. NEW: ASTRA confirms air defense repelled a drone attack on fuel and energy facilities in Volgograd Oblast, implying environmental impact from the drone attack or its interception. NEW: Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares video of explosions and fires in Kharkiv, reinforcing the environmental and infrastructural impact of ongoing strikes. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares photos of a fire at the Zenzevatka oil pumping station in Volgograd Oblast, Russia, based on media reports. NEW: РБК-Україна shares a video of firefighters responding to an RF attack in Kharkiv. NEW: ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, and STERNENKO all report on a significant fire at the Salavat petrochemical complex in Bashkiria, attributed to drone attacks. This indicates a major environmental and industrial impact from UAF deep strikes. NEW: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, shares images of a large fire in Kharkiv. NEW: Сили оборони Півдня України shares photo messages showing damage to civilian structures, reinforcing environmental and infrastructural impacts of RF aggression in the Southern operational zone. NEW: РБК-Україна shares video of damage to historical residential buildings and an active fire in Kherson, indicating further environmental and infrastructural damage from RF shelling. NEW: Mash na Donbashe shares video of a rescue operation in Kurakhovo, depicting fire damage and debris, confirming environmental impact of recent hostilities.

Environmental Impact from Drone Optics: NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video focusing on "kilometers of fiber optics from drones," which do not decompose and potentially release toxic substances, highlighting a new concern regarding the environmental impact of extensive drone warfare. This is an information operation that will likely gain traction.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (Confidence: HIGH)

RF Forces:

Offensive Posture: RF maintains offensive pressure on multiple axes (Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetropavsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Kharkiv), with confirmed and claimed gains in Berëzovoye, Kalynivske (Dnipropetropavsk), Pereyezdnoye (Donetsk), and claims of advancing in Volchansk, Kupiansk, Gulyaipole (Novoivanivka), and Serebryansky forestry. RF claims full fire control over the Krasny Lyman-Siversk highway and claims to have pushed UAF out of Kirovsk (Krasnolimanskoye direction). New maps from pro-RF sources indicate further advances towards Torske and Shandryholove, Kalynivske, and Poltavka. Heavy flamethrower systems (TOS-1A, artillery) and FPV drones are actively used in support of ground operations. RF claims destruction of UAF drone control points and Patriot systems (unverified). "Anvar" unit is active in clearing buffer zones in Sumy/Chernihiv Oblasts. RF MoD claims UAF is being partially encircled in Kupiansk, with over 5.6k buildings controlled. RF 5th Army artillery targeted UAF manpower identified by 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade reconnaissance. Colonelcassad shares photos of significant damage to civilian buildings in Kurakhove, likely due to recent RF shelling. MoD Russia claims a T-80BVM tank crew destroyed an AFU UAV command post on the approaches to Krasnoarmeysk. RF claims on Kupiansk direction (map from "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺") and advances towards Zvanovka (report by "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" citing military expert) indicate continued offensive intent and resource commitment. "Z комитет + karta SVO" shows continued consolidation or minor advances in the Melove area, Luhansk Oblast. Colonelcassad and "Воин DV" share tactical maps and reports of activity on the South Donetsk, Dnepropetrovsk, Huliaipole, and Krasnolimanskoye directions, confirming active RF ground operations across these axes. Colonelcassad's claim that "West" grouping units are successfully liberating Kupiansk reinforces active RF offensive posture. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares a map for the Konstantinovka direction, indicating ongoing RF pressure. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" shares drone footage of a damaged road, consistent with an active combat zone and continued RF presence/movement. Colonelcassad shares a map showing claimed RF advances near Volchansk and in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating renewed or intensified offensive actions in this area. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a tactical map for the Kharkiv direction, showing continued RF activity or contested territory. Colonelcassad states "ОБСТАНОВКА НА ЮЖНО-ДОНЕЦКОМ НАПРАВЛЕНИИ В ЗОНЕ ОТВЕТСТВЕННОСТИ ГРУППИРОВКИ ВОЙСК "ВОСТОК"." "Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны" claims the Russian Army has forded the Vovcha River and entered Ivanivka, advancing at the junction of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Colonelcassad confirms that "East" Group units have forded the Vovcha River and taken positions in eastern Ivanivka, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. MoD Russia shares a video of servicemen of the Yug Group of Forces practicing assault operations in the rear area of the LPR. DeepState shares drone footage of UAF drone operators from 241st Territorial Defense Brigade successfully targeting Russian positions on the western outskirts of Stepnohirsk. Rybar shares tactical maps for the "Novoselovskoye Direction" and "Konstantinovskoye Direction" for September 22-23, 2025, providing visual corroboration of active RF operations. NEW: Военкор Котенок shares map overlays for the Krasnolimanskoye/Severkoye directions, suggesting continued RF focus on this area. NEW: DeepState shares video of 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Iron Falcons" striking enemy manpower east of Tovste. NEW: Colonelcassad shares video of Russian pilots striking the 24th Mechanized Brigade of the UAF with FAB-250s with UMPK. NEW: Colonelcassad reports "S.P.A.R.T.A. Battalion" destroying a UAF UAV control point in Dmytrivka. NEW: TASS reports the "Dnepr" grouping struck a UAF dugout in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This indicates continued RF artillery and ground operations in the area. NEW: Colonelcassad shares video showcasing thermobaric terror by the 16th Guards Brigade of RHB Protection, using FPV drones against enemy positions. This indicates adaptive use of specialized units with highly destructive munitions in ground operations. NEW: ТАСС reports Russian Armed Forces are tightening the ring around Kupiansk, citing Russian security forces, reinforcing claims of an ongoing encirclement. NEW: ТАСС reports Marochko states RF has formed a fire pocket for UAF southeast of Zvanovka in DNR, indicating efforts to trap UAF forces. NEW: ТАСС reports that Kyiv has sent national battalions to Kupiansk in an attempt to hold back the Russian army, citing Marochko. This indicates RF awareness of UAF defensive measures and potential attempts to counter them. NEW: ТАСС reports that drones from the 'Dnepr' grouping destroyed a US-made Paladin self-propelled artillery unit in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This is a significant claim of successful RF C-UAS and precision strike capabilities against high-value UAF equipment. The accompanying video describes the FPV drone operator's process of targeting, including using dust trails from artillery fire for identification. NEW: Рыбарь posts a video titled "SVO Chronicle for September 22-23," which likely contains further details and maps of claimed RF advances. NEW: ТАСС reports Russian operators of unmanned aerial vehicles in the area of the special military operation destroyed a tank and two octocopters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, citing the Ministry of Defense. This indicates continued RF ground offensive capabilities and effective drone support. NEW: ТАСС reports that assault groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces special company retreated with heavy losses near Synelnykove, Kharkiv Oblast, citing Russian security forces. This is an RF claim of successful defensive action and UAF losses. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares videos and photos claiming massive RF strikes on military objects in Kharkiv, showing explosions and fires. NEW: WarGonzo provides a "Frontline summary for the morning of 24.09.25", including tactical maps for Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv and Sumy fronts, indicating continued RF operations and claimed advances on these axes. NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports RF conducted 95 combat engagements in the last 24 hours, including 19 assaults on Kupiansk, 10 on Lyman, 15 on Pokrovsk, 9 on Vremivka, and 8 on Orikhiv directions. This confirms high-tempo, multi-axis ground offensive capabilities. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF forces struck UAF dislocaton points of the 425th regiment and 47th brigade near Yunakivka on the Sumy direction. NEW: Colonelcassad shares video of the 57th Separate Reconnaissance Spetsnaz Unit (orSpN) destroying two UAF temporary deployment points (PVD) near Oktyabrsky. NEW: Colonelcassad shares a video showcasing Russian military activities, including artillery fire, troop movements, and drone footage of explosions and equipment. NEW: ТАСС shares video footage of a group of Ukrainian soldiers surrendering in Kupiansk, indicating potential tactical breakthroughs. NEW: ТАСС shares video footage of FSB of DNR destroying enemy DRG by "Gorynych" counter-terrorism unit on Dzerzhinsk direction, indicating continued RF counter-DRG operations. NEW: ТАСС reports RF forces have approached Konstantinovka from several directions, citing DNR head Pushilin. This indicates sustained RF offensive pressure on this key logistical hub. NEW: Два майора shares a video of three masked and armed individuals in military camouflage, stating it's a "Collection for assault troops on the Slaviansk direction," indicating continued RF fundraising and operations on this front.
Air Activity: RF continues large-scale (115 launched overnight, and now claims of "Geran" hits in Zaporizhzhia) drone attacks (Shaheds, "Geran-2," possibly with air balloons) and КАБ/FAB strikes, particularly on Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Kharkiv. RF MoD claims 58 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over multiple RF oblasts and Moscow region. Damage from UAV attacks on residential areas in New Moscow is confirmed by video. New groups of RF UAVs are inbound to Zaporizhzhia and Nikopol district has a strike UAV danger alert. Moscow media confirms use of a large number of air balloons in UAV attacks on RF. Video claims RF 1st Tank Army destroying UAF drones in Kharkiv Oblast. RBC-Ukraine reports a large-scale wave of attacks on Ukrainian railways. New КАБ launches confirmed in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Sumy Oblast. ASTRA reports the Druzhba oil pipeline station in Bryansk Oblast was shelled by missiles, indicating potential UAF deep strike on RF logistics/energy infrastructure. Colonelcassad's video confirming strikes on Motor Sich and Ivchenko-Progress facilities in Zaporizhzhia demonstrates sustained RF capability to target strategic industrial assets. UAF Air Force reports КАБ launches targeting Donetsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAVs heading for Chernihiv and a group of UAVs in northeastern Chernihiv region moving southwest. UAF Air Force reports active enemy UAVs southwest of Zaporizhzhia, heading northwest, and in Kharkiv and Chernihiv Oblasts, indicating continued reconnaissance and potential strike preparation across multiple regions. Colonelcassad shares video of "Geran-2" UAV strikes on Zaporizhzhia. UAF Air Force reports RF UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast heading for Zlatopil from the east. UAF Air Force reports RF UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast heading for Balaklia from the northeast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of RF UAVs heading for Zaporizhzhia from the southeast, with one heading for Nikopol district. RF MoD claims 34 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Belgorod, Kursk, and Tula Oblasts between 14:00 and 19:00 MSK, indicating continued UAF deep strike attempts and sustained RF air defense activity. UAF Air Force reports an RF UAV in Kharkiv Oblast moving westward toward Zmiiv, Andriivka, Berestyn, and Pechenihy. UAF Air Force reports a UAV in Sumy Oblast, moving towards Lebedyn from the east. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV in Sumy Oblast, heading towards Poltava Oblast (vector Hadyach) and near Koriukivka towards Okhtyrka. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new groups of UAVs on Zaporizhzhia from the southeast. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV in Sumy Oblast, course - Okhtyrka from the southwest. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV in Zaporizhzhia, course on/past the regional center in a northern/northwestern direction. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV in Sumy Oblast from the east. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new UAVs in Sumy Oblast, south-east of Sumy, moving south-west. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new UAVs in northern Sumy Oblast and northeastern Chernihiv Oblast, moving south-west. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new groups of UAVs in eastern Kharkiv Oblast, course - western. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports several UAVs from Sumy and Kharkiv regions heading towards Poltava Oblast. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Poltava region, course - Mirhorod. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target in Kharkiv Oblast towards Pechenihy. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Kharkiv city is under a massive attack by enemy strike UAVs. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on the east of Mykolaiv Oblast, course - western. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that most of the 16 strikes in Kharkiv hit the Kholodnohirskyi district. ASTRA reports that RF forces struck Kharkiv, causing power outages in the city. ASTRA reports UAF struck Taganrog, with video showing a UAV being destroyed during the attack. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) reports a missile strike on Belgorod. TASS reports five people were wounded in the missile attack on Belgorod, according to Governor Gladkov. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repeated КАБ launches on Donetsk Oblast. NEW: Fighterbomber shares two photo messages with the caption "Отбой!", suggesting the end of an air raid or alert. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new UAVs on the border of Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts, heading towards Poltava Oblast. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV heading for Dnipro from the south. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAVs in Mykolaiv Oblast heading for Mykolaiv and Voznesensk. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV heading for Kryvyi Rih from the east. NEW: РБК-Україна shares a photo message stating enemy drones continue to fly over Ukraine. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV through Kryvyi Rih district, Dnipropetrovsk region, heading for Mykolaiv region. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Lebedyn (Sumy region) from the northeast. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV heading for Chuhuiv (Kharkiv region). NEW: ТАСС reports air defense forces are repelling a UAV attack in seven municipalities of Rostov Oblast. A private house caught fire in Sholokhov district, according to the governor. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV heading for Hadyach (Poltava Oblast) from the northeast. NEW: РБК-Україна reports RF launched several drone strikes on Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV in Kharkiv Oblast, course to Chuhuiv from the southeast. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs are moving towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district, Odesa Oblast, from the Black Sea. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAV (moped) in Poltava region, course Poltava. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation in Northeast Kharkiv region. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on course for Kyiv from the east. NEW: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) and РБК-Україна report an air raid alert in Kyiv due to drone threats. Николаевский Ванёк reports a "moped" UAV passed Boryspil towards Kyiv. Subsequently, an "all clear" was issued, with the drone reportedly moving further south. This indicates ongoing, low-level drone threats to the capital region. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Kherson region on course for Mykolaiv region. NEW: Николаевский Ванёк reports 3 new 'mopeds' (UAVs) on course for/through Snihurivka, but later states they are no longer being detected. NEW: ТАСС reports a massive UAV attack was repelled in Volgograd Oblast, and ASTRA confirms that air defense repelled a drone attack on fuel and energy facilities in Volgograd Oblast. This confirms a new UAF deep strike target area and significant RF air defense activity. NEW: ТАСС reports that power outages occurred in one district of Belgorod Oblast due to a UAF attack. This confirms ongoing UAF deep strikes on RF territory, indicating continued vulnerability to aerial attacks. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. NEW: Fighterbomber shares video from inside a military helicopter flying over a dry, grassy landscape, indicating ongoing RF aerial reconnaissance or transport operations. NEW: ТАСС shares a video claiming RF drone operators destroyed a tank and two UAF octocopters. This signals continued RF anti-armor and counter-UAV air activity. NEW: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports shelling of Nikopol with heavy artillery and FPV drones, damaging a five-story building, a car, and a power line. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares videos and photos claiming massive RF strikes on military objects in Kharkiv, showing explosions and fires. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, heading for Pryluky. NEW: НгП раZVедка claims destruction of power substation "Ivanivka" in Kharkiv by 21 strike UAVs. NEW: ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, and STERNENKO all report on a significant fire at the Salavat petrochemical complex in Bashkiria, attributed to drone attacks. NEW: Fighterbomber shares a photo message about an aviation engineer meeting an aircraft crew that landed in "zero visibility" due to sudden weather deterioration. This highlights ongoing RF air operations despite challenging conditions. NEW: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, shares images of a large fire in Kharkiv. NEW: Басурин о главном shares a video showing new Su-35S fighter jets in flight. This confirms continued operational readiness and production of advanced RF fighter aircraft. NEW: Colonelcassad shares video showing strikes by "Geran" drones on the Ivanivka substation in Kharkiv on September 23, 2025, confirming the target and date of the RF strike on critical infrastructure. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a new "Attention!" warning, indicating ongoing air threats.
RF Counter-UAS Developments: NEW: Colonelcassad shares a video showcasing Russian drone operators from the Rubicon center targeting enemy reconnaissance UAVs. The video includes images of small, lightweight drones, suggesting development or deployment of specialized C-UAS capabilities against UAF reconnaissance drones. This directly impacts battlefield geometry by contesting air superiority for tactical ISR. NEW: ТАСС reports that drones from the 'Dnepr' grouping destroyed a US-made Paladin self-propelled artillery unit in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This is a significant claim of successful RF C-UAS and precision strike capabilities against high-value UAF equipment. The accompanying video describes the FPV drone operator's process of targeting, including using dust trails from artillery fire for identification. NEW: ТАСС shares a video claiming RF drone operators destroyed a tank and two UAF octocopters. This indicates effective RF counter-UAV operations. NEW: Два майора shares video of an 18th Army FPV drone operator targeting enemy vehicles on roads covered by anti-drone nets, explicitly stating that the nets "did not help." This indicates RF adaptation to UAF defensive measures. NEW: ТАСС releases a video of the "Severny Veter" drone, which recently underwent trials in the SVO zone, depicting its assembly, launch, and aerial reconnaissance capabilities, including thermal imaging of Ukrainian positions. This indicates RF's continued development and deployment of new drone technology.
RF Troop Movement/Losses: NEW: ТАСС reports that assault groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces special company retreated with heavy losses near Synelnykove, Kharkiv Oblast, citing Russian security forces. This is an RF claim of successful defensive action and UAF losses. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video showing a soldier evacuating a wounded comrade, indicating ongoing RF casualties and the necessity of tactical medical evacuation. NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 970 Russian occupiers were eliminated in the last day. NEW: РБК-Україна shares a graphic with estimated daily RF losses, including 970 personnel, 11 tanks, 18 armored combat vehicles, and other equipment. NEW: Colonelcassad shares a video showcasing a Russian soldier, "Sava," from Krasnoyarsk, recounting his combat experience, including being injured by FPV drones and gas, successfully repelling an assault, and receiving the Order of Courage. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a distressed man in military attire stating his group has left him and he needs help. This reinforces narratives of RF soldiers being abandoned or in distress.
General Staff, UAF, Morning Report (08:00 24.09.2025): NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ releases its daily operational update. Key points: 95 combat engagements occurred over the last 24 hours. The situation remains difficult, particularly on the Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Vremivka (South Donetsk), and Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia) axes.
- Kupiansk Direction: RF conducted 19 assaults, UAF repelled 18. The situation remains tense but controlled.
- Lyman Direction: RF conducted 10 assaults. UAF repelled them, maintaining defensive lines.
- Pokrovsk Direction: RF conducted 15 assaults. UAF successfully repelled them.
- Vremivka Direction: RF conducted 9 assaults. UAF repelled them.
- Orikhiv Direction: RF conducted 8 assaults. UAF repelled them.
- Kherson Direction: UAF continues to hold the left bank of the Dnipro River.
- UAF Air Force/Missile Troops: Struck 1 RF control point, 3 areas of personnel/equipment concentration, and 1 anti-aircraft missile system.
- RF Casualties: Estimated 970 personnel, 11 tanks, 18 armored combat vehicles, 36 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 2 air defense systems, 1 helicopter, 10 UAVs, 3 cruise missiles, and 28 vehicles destroyed.
RF Autumn Conscription: NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 announces the autumn conscription drive from October 1 to December 31, with electronic summonses, indicating a new phase of RF manpower mobilization.

1.4. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (Confidence: HIGH)

Environmental Impact from Drone Optics: NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video focusing on "kilometers of fiber optics from drones," which do not decompose and potentially release toxic substances, highlighting a new concern regarding the environmental impact of extensive drone warfare. This is an information operation that will likely gain traction.

1.5. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (Confidence: HIGH)

RF Forces:

Offensive Posture: RF maintains offensive pressure on multiple axes (Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetropavsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Kharkiv), with confirmed and claimed gains in Berëzovoye, Kalynivske (Dnipropetropavsk), Pereyezdnoye (Donetsk), and claims of advancing in Volchansk, Kupiansk, Gulyaipole (Novoivanivka), and Serebryansky forestry. RF claims full fire control over the Krasny Lyman-Siversk highway and claims to have pushed UAF out of Kirovsk (Krasnolimanskoye direction). New maps from pro-RF sources indicate further advances towards Torske and Shandryholove, Kalynivske, and Poltavka. Heavy flamethrower systems (TOS-1A, artillery) and FPV drones are actively used in support of ground operations. RF claims destruction of UAF drone control points and Patriot systems (unverified). "Anvar" unit is active in clearing buffer zones in Sumy/Chernihiv Oblasts. RF MoD claims UAF is being partially encircled in Kupiansk, with over 5.6k buildings controlled. RF 5th Army artillery targeted UAF manpower identified by 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade reconnaissance. Colonelcassad shares photos of significant damage to civilian buildings in Kurakhove, likely due to recent RF shelling. MoD Russia claims a T-80BVM tank crew destroyed an AFU UAV command post on the approaches to Krasnoarmeysk. RF claims on Kupiansk direction (map from "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺") and advances towards Zvanovka (report by "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" citing military expert) indicate continued offensive intent and resource commitment. "Z комитет + karta SVO" shows continued consolidation or minor advances in the Melove area, Luhansk Oblast. Colonelcassad and "Воин DV" share tactical maps and reports of activity on the South Donetsk, Dnepropetrovsk, Huliaipole, and Krasnolimanskoye directions, confirming active RF ground operations across these axes. Colonelcassad's claim that "West" grouping units are successfully liberating Kupiansk reinforces active RF offensive posture. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares a map for the Konstantinovka direction, indicating ongoing RF pressure. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" shares drone footage of a damaged road, consistent with an active combat zone and continued RF presence/movement. Colonelcassad shares a map showing claimed RF advances near Volchansk and in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating renewed or intensified offensive actions in this area. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a tactical map for the Kharkiv direction, showing continued RF activity or contested territory. Colonelcassad states "ОБСТАНОВКА НА ЮЖНО-ДОНЕЦКОМ НАПРАВЛЕНИИ В ЗОНЕ ОТВЕТСТВЕННОСТИ ГРУППИРОВКИ ВОЙСК "ВОСТОК"." "Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны" claims the Russian Army has forded the Vovcha River and entered Ivanivka, advancing at the junction of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Colonelcassad confirms that "East" Group units have forded the Vovcha River and taken positions in eastern Ivanivka, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. MoD Russia shares a video of servicemen of the Yug Group of Forces practicing assault operations in the rear area of the LPR. DeepState shares drone footage of UAF drone operators from 241st Territorial Defense Brigade successfully targeting Russian positions on the western outskirts of Stepnohirsk. Rybar shares tactical maps for the "Novoselovskoye Direction" and "Konstantinovskoye Direction" for September 22-23, 2025, providing visual corroboration of active RF operations. NEW: Военкор Котенок shares map overlays for the Krasnolimanskoye/Severkoye directions, suggesting continued RF focus on this area. NEW: DeepState shares video of 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Iron Falcons" striking enemy manpower east of Tovste. NEW: Colonelcassad shares video of Russian pilots striking the 24th Mechanized Brigade of the UAF with FAB-250s with UMPK. NEW: Colonelcassad reports "S.P.A.R.T.A. Battalion" destroying a UAF UAV control point in Dmytrivka. NEW: TASS reports the "Dnepr" grouping struck a UAF dugout in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This indicates continued RF artillery and ground operations in the area. NEW: Colonelcassad shares video showcasing thermobaric terror by the 16th Guards Brigade of RHB Protection, using FPV drones against enemy positions. This indicates adaptive use of specialized units with highly destructive munitions in ground operations. NEW: ТАСС reports Russian Armed Forces are tightening the ring around Kupiansk, citing Russian security forces, reinforcing claims of an ongoing encirclement. NEW: ТАСС reports Marochko states RF has formed a fire pocket for UAF southeast of Zvanovka in DNR, indicating efforts to trap UAF forces. NEW: ТАСС reports that Kyiv has sent national battalions to Kupiansk in an attempt to hold back the Russian army, citing Marochko. This indicates RF awareness of UAF defensive measures and potential attempts to counter them. NEW: ТАСС reports that drones from the 'Dnepr' grouping destroyed a US-made Paladin self-propelled artillery unit in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This is a significant claim of successful RF C-UAS and precision strike capabilities against high-value UAF equipment. The accompanying video describes the FPV drone operator's process of targeting, including using dust trails from artillery fire for identification. NEW: Рыбарь posts a video titled "SVO Chronicle for September 22-23," which likely contains further details and maps of claimed RF advances. NEW: ТАСС reports Russian operators of unmanned aerial vehicles in the area of the special military operation destroyed a tank and two octocopters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, citing the Ministry of Defense. This indicates continued RF ground offensive capabilities and effective drone support. NEW: ТАСС reports that assault groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces special company retreated with heavy losses near Synelnykove, Kharkiv Oblast, citing Russian security forces. This is an RF claim of successful defensive action and UAF losses. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares videos and photos claiming massive RF strikes on military objects in Kharkiv, showing explosions and fires. NEW: WarGonzo provides a "Frontline summary for the morning of 24.09.25", including tactical maps for Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv and Sumy fronts, indicating continued RF operations and claimed advances on these axes. NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports RF conducted 95 combat engagements in the last 24 hours, including 19 assaults on Kupiansk, 10 on Lyman, 15 on Pokrovsk, 9 on Vremivka, and 8 on Orikhiv directions. This confirms high-tempo, multi-axis ground offensive capabilities. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF forces struck UAF dislocaton points of the 425th regiment and 47th brigade near Yunakivka on the Sumy direction. NEW: Colonelcassad shares video of the 57th Separate Reconnaissance Spetsnaz Unit (orSpN) destroying two UAF temporary deployment points (PVD) near Oktyabrsky. NEW: Colonelcassad shares a video showcasing Russian military activities, including artillery fire, troop movements, and drone footage of explosions and equipment. NEW: ТАСС shares video footage of a group of Ukrainian soldiers surrendering in Kupiansk, indicating potential tactical breakthroughs. NEW: ТАСС shares video footage of FSB of DNR destroying enemy DRG by "Gorynych" counter-terrorism unit on Dzerzhinsk direction, indicating continued RF counter-DRG operations. NEW: ТАСС reports RF forces have approached Konstantinovka from several directions, citing DNR head Pushilin. This indicates sustained RF offensive pressure on this key logistical hub. NEW: Mash na Donbashe shares video of police rescuing a woman from a burning apartment in Kurakhovo, claimed by RF to be recently liberated. This suggests recent combat or fire activity in the area and RF presence. NEW: Два майора shares a video of three masked and armed individuals in military camouflage, stating it's a "Collection for assault troops on the Slaviansk direction," indicating continued RF fundraising and operations on this front.
Air Activity: RF continues large-scale (115 launched overnight, and now claims of "Geran" hits in Zaporizhzhia) drone attacks (Shaheds, "Geran-2," possibly with air balloons) and КАБ/FAB strikes, particularly on Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Kharkiv. RF MoD claims 58 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over multiple RF oblasts and Moscow region. Damage from UAV attacks on residential areas in New Moscow is confirmed by video. New groups of RF UAVs are inbound to Zaporizhzhia and Nikopol district has a strike UAV danger alert. Moscow media confirms use of a large number of air balloons in UAV attacks on RF. Video claims RF 1st Tank Army destroying UAF drones in Kharkiv Oblast. RBC-Ukraine reports a large-scale wave of attacks on Ukrainian railways. New КАБ launches confirmed in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Sumy Oblast. ASTRA reports the Druzhba oil pipeline station in Bryansk Oblast was shelled by missiles, indicating potential UAF deep strike on RF logistics/energy infrastructure. Colonelcassad's video confirming strikes on Motor Sich and Ivchenko-Progress facilities in Zaporizhzhia demonstrates sustained RF capability to target strategic industrial assets. UAF Air Force reports КАБ launches targeting Donetsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports reconnaissance UAVs heading for Chernihiv and a group of UAVs in northeastern Chernihiv region moving southwest. UAF Air Force reports active enemy UAVs southwest of Zaporizhzhia, heading northwest, and in Kharkiv and Chernihiv Oblasts, indicating continued reconnaissance and potential strike preparation across multiple regions. Colonelcassad shares video of "Geran-2" UAV strikes on Zaporizhzhia. UAF Air Force reports RF UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast heading for Zlatopil from the east. UAF Air Force reports RF UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast heading for Balaklia from the northeast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of RF UAVs heading for Zaporizhzhia from the southeast, with one heading for Nikopol district. RF MoD claims 34 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Belgorod, Kursk, and Tula Oblasts between 14:00 and 19:00 MSK, indicating continued UAF deep strike attempts and sustained RF air defense activity. UAF Air Force reports an RF UAV in Kharkiv Oblast moving westward toward Zmiiv, Andriivka, Berestyn, and Pechenihy. UAF Air Force reports a UAV in Sumy Oblast, moving towards Lebedyn from the east. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV in Sumy Oblast, heading towards Poltava Oblast (vector Hadyach) and near Koriukivka towards Okhtyrka. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new groups of UAVs on Zaporizhzhia from the southeast. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV in Sumy Oblast, course - Okhtyrka from the southwest. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV in Zaporizhzhia, course on/past the regional center in a northern/northwestern direction. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV in Sumy Oblast from the east. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new UAVs in Sumy Oblast, south-east of Sumy, moving south-west. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new UAVs in northern Sumy Oblast and northeastern Chernihiv Oblast, moving south-west. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new groups of UAVs in eastern Kharkiv Oblast, course - western. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports several UAVs from Sumy and Kharkiv regions heading towards Poltava Oblast. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Poltava region, course - Mirhorod. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target in Kharkiv Oblast towards Pechenihy. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Kharkiv city is under a massive attack by enemy strike UAVs. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on the east of Mykolaiv Oblast, course - western. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that most of the 16 strikes in Kharkiv hit the Kholodnohirskyi district. ASTRA reports that RF forces struck Kharkiv, causing power outages in the city. ASTRA reports UAF struck Taganrog, with video showing a UAV being destroyed during the attack. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) reports a missile strike on Belgorod. TASS reports five people were wounded in the missile attack on Belgorod, according to Governor Gladkov. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repeated КАБ launches on Donetsk Oblast. NEW: Fighterbomber shares two photo messages with the caption "Отбой!", suggesting the end of an air raid or alert. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new UAVs on the border of Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts, heading towards Poltava Oblast. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV heading for Dnipro from the south. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAVs in Mykolaiv Oblast heading for Mykolaiv and Voznesensk. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV heading for Kryvyi Rih from the east. NEW: РБК-Україна shares a photo message stating enemy drones continue to fly over Ukraine. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV through Kryvyi Rih district, Dnipropetrovsk region, heading for Mykolaiv region. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Lebedyn (Sumy region) from the northeast. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV heading for Chuhuiv (Kharkiv region). NEW: ТАСС reports air defense forces are repelling a UAV attack in seven municipalities of Rostov Oblast. A private house caught fire in Sholokhov district, according to the governor. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV heading for Hadyach (Poltava Oblast) from the northeast. NEW: РБК-Україна reports RF launched several drone strikes on Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV in Kharkiv Oblast, course to Chuhuiv from the southeast. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs are moving towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district, Odesa Oblast, from the Black Sea. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAV (moped) in Poltava region, course Poltava. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation in Northeast Kharkiv region. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on course for Kyiv from the east. NEW: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) and РБК-Україна report an air raid alert in Kyiv due to drone threats. Николаевский Ванёк reports a "moped" UAV passed Boryspil towards Kyiv. Subsequently, an "all clear" was issued, with the drone reportedly moving further south. This indicates ongoing, low-level drone threats to the capital region. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Kherson region on course for Mykolaiv region. NEW: Николаевский Ванёк reports 3 new 'mopeds' (UAVs) on course for/through Snihurivka, but later states they are no longer being detected. NEW: ТАСС reports a massive UAV attack was repelled in Volgograd Oblast, and ASTRA confirms that air defense repelled a drone attack on fuel and energy facilities in Volgograd Oblast. This confirms a new UAF deep strike target area and significant RF air defense activity. NEW: ТАСС reports that power outages occurred in one district of Belgorod Oblast due to a UAF attack. This confirms ongoing UAF deep strikes on RF territory, indicating continued vulnerability to aerial attacks. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. NEW: Fighterbomber shares video from inside a military helicopter flying over a dry, grassy landscape, indicating ongoing RF aerial reconnaissance or transport operations. NEW: ТАСС shares a video claiming RF drone operators destroyed a tank and two UAF octocopters. This signals continued RF anti-armor and counter-UAV air activity. NEW: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports shelling of Nikopol with heavy artillery and FPV drones, damaging a five-story building, a car, and a power line. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares videos and photos claiming massive RF strikes on military objects in Kharkiv, showing explosions and fires. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, heading for Pryluky. NEW: НгП раZVедка claims destruction of power substation "Ivanivka" in Kharkiv by 21 strike UAVs. NEW: ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, and STERNENKO all report on a significant fire at the Salavat petrochemical complex in Bashkiria, attributed to drone attacks. NEW: Fighterbomber shares a photo message about an aviation engineer meeting an aircraft crew that landed in "zero visibility" due to sudden weather deterioration. This highlights ongoing RF air operations despite challenging conditions. NEW: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, shares images of a large fire in Kharkiv. NEW: Басурин о главном shares a video showing new Su-35S fighter jets in flight. This confirms continued operational readiness and production of advanced RF fighter aircraft. NEW: Colonelcassad shares video showing strikes by "Geran" drones on the Ivanivka substation in Kharkiv on September 23, 2025, confirming the target and date of the RF strike on critical infrastructure. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a new "Attention!" warning, indicating ongoing air threats.
RF Counter-UAS Developments: NEW: Colonelcassad shares a video showcasing Russian drone operators from the Rubicon center targeting enemy reconnaissance UAVs. The video includes images of small, lightweight drones, suggesting development or deployment of specialized C-UAS capabilities against UAF reconnaissance drones. This directly impacts battlefield geometry by contesting air superiority for tactical ISR. NEW: ТАСС reports that drones from the 'Dnepr' grouping destroyed a US-made Paladin self-propelled artillery unit in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This is a significant claim of successful RF C-UAS and precision strike capabilities against high-value UAF equipment. The accompanying video describes the FPV drone operator's process of targeting, including using dust trails from artillery fire for identification. NEW: ТАСС shares a video claiming RF drone operators destroyed a tank and two UAF octocopters. This indicates effective RF counter-UAV operations. NEW: Два майора shares video of an 18th Army FPV drone operator targeting enemy vehicles on roads covered by anti-drone nets, explicitly stating that the nets "did not help." This indicates RF adaptation to UAF defensive measures. NEW: ТАСС releases a video of the "Severny Veter" drone, which recently underwent trials in the SVO zone, depicting its assembly, launch, and aerial reconnaissance capabilities, including thermal imaging of Ukrainian positions. This indicates RF's continued development and deployment of new drone technology.
RF Troop Movement/Losses: NEW: ТАСС reports that assault groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces special company retreated with heavy losses near Synelnykove, Kharkiv Oblast, citing Russian security forces. This is an RF claim of successful defensive action and UAF losses. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video showing a soldier evacuating a wounded comrade, indicating ongoing RF casualties and the necessity of tactical medical evacuation. NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 970 Russian occupiers were eliminated in the last day. NEW: РБК-Україна shares a graphic with estimated daily RF losses, including 970 personnel, 11 tanks, 18 armored combat vehicles, and other equipment. NEW: Colonelcassad shares a video showcasing a Russian soldier, "Sava," from Krasnoyarsk, recounting his combat experience, including being injured by FPV drones and gas, successfully repelling an assault, and receiving the Order of Courage. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a distressed man in military attire stating his group has left him and he needs help. This reinforces narratives of RF soldiers being abandoned or in distress.
General Staff, UAF, Morning Report (08:00 24.09.2025): NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ releases its daily operational update. Key points: 95 combat engagements occurred over the last 24 hours. The situation remains difficult, particularly on the Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Vremivka (South Donetsk), and Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia) axes.
- Kupiansk Direction: RF conducted 19 assaults, UAF repelled 18. The situation remains tense but controlled.
- Lyman Direction: RF conducted 10 assaults. UAF repelled them, maintaining defensive lines.
- Pokrovsk Direction: RF conducted 15 assaults. UAF successfully repelled them.
- Vremivka Direction: RF conducted 9 assaults. UAF repelled them.
- Orikhiv Direction: RF conducted 8 assaults. UAF repelled them.
- Kherson Direction: UAF continues to hold the left bank of the Dnipro River.
- UAF Air Force/Missile Troops: Struck 1 RF control point, 3 areas of personnel/equipment concentration, and 1 anti-aircraft missile system.
- RF Casualties: Estimated 970 personnel, 11 tanks, 18 armored combat vehicles, 36 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 2 air defense systems, 1 helicopter, 10 UAVs, 3 cruise missiles, and 28 vehicles destroyed.
RF Autumn Conscription: NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 announces the autumn conscription drive from October 1 to December 31, with electronic summonses, indicating a new phase of RF manpower mobilization.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (Confidence: HIGH)

Capabilities:

Persistent Mass Aerial Strike Capability: RF sustains capability for large-scale, coordinated UAV (152 launched overnight, 126 claimed shot down/suppressed by UAF, 58 claimed shot down over RF territory, with reports of "Geran" hits in Zaporizhzhia, and use of air balloons in attacks on RF, 5 Shahed strikes on Zaporizhzhia, 5 reactive Shahed strikes on Zaporizhzhia in 20 minutes, over 70 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russia overnight, 16 UAVs shot down over Sevastopol) and guided bomb (КАБ/FAB) attacks, targeting critical infrastructure (energy, industrial, railways, Motor Sich/Ivchenko-Progress facilities) and increasingly civilian urban areas (Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, Nikopol, New Moscow residential areas, Kurakhove, Lgov in Kursk Oblast, Valuyki in Belgorod Oblast, Kharkiv city, Mykolaiv Oblast, Belgorod, Kryvyi Rih, Kursk (Lgov) fire/explosion, Volgograd airport restrictions, Rostov Oblast UAV attack, Chuhuiv, Kyiv, Snihurivka, Tolyatti, Belgorod Oblast power outages, Paladin SAU in Zaporizhzhia, Zenzevatka oil pumping station fire, Salavat petrochemical complex in Bashkiria, Kherson). Confirmed strikes on military-industrial facilities (Motor Sich, Ivchenko-Progress) and UAF C2/airfields (Chernihiv, Konstantinovka, Poltava, UAV command post near Krasnoarmeysk, 156th Separate Mechanized Brigade in Sumy Oblast, Paladin SAU in Zaporizhzhia) further underscore precision strike capabilities. Defense Express highlights Shahed range capable of almost all European capitals. New large-scale attacks on Ukrainian railway infrastructure indicate a capability to target strategic logistical networks. New КАБ launches confirmed in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Sumy Oblast indicate continued capability for precision and indiscriminate strikes. UAF Air Force reports КАБ launches targeting Donetsk Oblast, confirming continued widespread aerial bombing capability. ZNPP disconnected from its last external power line, indicating RF capability to disrupt critical energy supply. Continued UAV activity towards Zaporizhzhia, Nikopol, Zlatopil, Balaklia, Lebedyn, and now Hadyach/Okhtyrka demonstrates sustained aerial strike capabilities. RF MoD claims 34 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Belgorod, Kursk, and Tula Oblasts, indicating continued active air defense operations against UAF drone threats. UAF Air Force reports continued RF UAV activity in Kharkiv Oblast, demonstrating persistent reconnaissance/strike capabilities. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Denmark suspects civilian vessels with Russian crews of organizing drone launches over Copenhagen Airport, implying an RF capability for clandestine drone operations. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports several UAVs from Sumy and Kharkiv regions heading towards Poltava Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target in Kharkiv Oblast towards Pechenihy. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Kharkiv city is under a massive attack by enemy strike UAVs. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on the east of Mykolaiv Oblast, course - western. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that most of the 16 strikes in Kharkiv hit the Kholodnohirskyi district. ASTRA reports that RF forces struck Kharkiv, causing power outages. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports a missile strike on Belgorod, with photos confirming damage, indicating RF's own territory is vulnerable but also that they maintain missile strike capability against UAF targets. TASS reports 5 wounded in the Belgorod missile attack. NEW: TASS reports 19 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF regions and the Black Sea in two hours. NEW: ASTRA reports 19 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF regions and Black Sea. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repeated КАБ launches on Donetsk Oblast. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV continuing towards Odesa Oblast (vector - Dobroslav). NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target east of Zaporizhzhia moving north. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target from occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Nikopol. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repeated КАБ launches on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. NEW: Николаевский Ванёк reports a КАБ launched on Zaporizhzhia. NEW: "Suspilne" reports sounds of explosions in Kryvyi Rih. NEW: РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Zaporizhzhia. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports fire and damage to private homes in one district of Zaporizhzhia after RF attack. NEW: ТАСС reports air defense forces are repelling a UAV attack in seven municipalities of Rostov Oblast. A private house caught fire in Sholokhov district. NEW: Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны shares video and photo messages claiming powerful fires on enemy objects in Kharkiv and disappearance of light, indicating a tactical adaptation to target urban infrastructure. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photo messages of one of the damaged houses in Zaporizhzhia due to enemy attack, reinforcing high impact. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photo messages of emergency services (ДСНС ЗАПОРІЖЖЯ) responding to two RF FAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia. NEW: РБК-УкраїНА shares photo message of a damaged house in Zaporizhzhia due to RF attack. NEW: РБК-Україна shares photo message of two RF FAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia. NEW: РБК-Україна reports RF launched several drone strikes on Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast. NEW: TASS reports two people were injured by shrapnel after a UAV attack in Rostov Oblast, indicating continued civilian casualties. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation in Northeast Kharkiv region. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on course for Kyiv from the east. NEW: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports an air raid alert in Kyiv due to drone threats. Николаевский Ванёк reports a "moped" UAV passed Boryspil towards Kyiv, confirming a direct threat to the capital. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Kherson region on course for Mykolaiv region. NEW: Сили оборони Півдня України reports 20 shellings on 12 settlements in the past day, indicating continuous fire support capability. NEW: ТАСС reports Samara airport operations are temporarily restricted, possibly due to a drone threat. NEW: TASS reports temporary restrictions have been introduced at Sochi and Gelendzhik airports, likely due to a perceived drone threat. This indicates an adaptive security response to a broader, more persistent UAV threat. NEW: ТАСС reports a massive UAV attack was repelled in Volgograd Oblast, and ASTRA confirms that air defense repelled a drone attack on fuel and energy facilities in Volgograd Oblast. This confirms a new UAF deep strike target area and significant RF air defense activity, but also demonstrates RF capability to repel such attacks. NEW: ТАСС reports that power outages occurred in one district of Belgorod Oblast due to a UAF attack. This confirms ongoing UAF deep strikes on RF territory, indicating continued vulnerability to aerial attacks. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. NEW: Fighterbomber shares video from inside a military helicopter flying over a dry, grassy landscape, indicating ongoing RF aerial reconnaissance or transport operations. NEW: ТАСС shares a video claiming RF drone operators destroyed a tank and two UAF octocopters. This signals continued RF anti-armor and counter-UAV air activity. NEW: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports shelling of Nikopol with heavy artillery and FPV drones, damaging a five-story building, a car, and a power line. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares videos and photos claiming massive RF strikes on military objects in Kharkiv, showing explosions and fires. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, heading for Pryluky. NEW: НгП раZVедка claims destruction of power substation "Ivanivka" in Kharkiv by 21 strike UAVs. NEW: ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, and STERNENKO all report on a significant fire at the Salavat petrochemical complex in Bashkiria, attributed to drone attacks. NEW: Fighterbomber shares a photo message about an aviation engineer meeting an aircraft crew that landed in "zero visibility" due to sudden weather deterioration. This highlights ongoing RF air operations despite challenging conditions. NEW: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, shares images of a large fire in Kharkiv. NEW: Басурин о главном shares a video showing new Su-35S fighter jets in flight. This confirms continued operational readiness and production of advanced RF fighter aircraft. NEW: ТАСС reports UAF continuously shelling the damaged 750 kV "Dniprovska" power line of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), delaying its restoration, which is a key RF IO adaptation to shift blame for energy disruption. NEW: Colonelcassad shares video showing strikes by "Geran" drones on the Ivanivka substation in Kharkiv on September 23, 2025, confirming the target and date of the RF strike on critical infrastructure. NEW: РБК-Україна shares video of damage to historical residential buildings and an active fire in Kherson, indicating continued RF targeting of civilian areas. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a new "Attention!" warning, indicating ongoing air threats.
Advanced Drone Warfare & C-UAS: Continuous innovation (e.g., modular 'PUGACH' reconnaissance drone, "Hortenzia" with grenade launchers, "Geran-3" reactive UAVs, use of air balloons in attacks, FPV drones used in Bryansk Oblast and Nikopol, FPV/loitering munitions used in Krasnoarmeysk direction) and tactical adaptation (targeting UAF drone C2, repurposing captured drones) for ISR, strike, and counter-UAV operations. "Anvar" unit utilizing drones for clearing buffer zones. Video claims RF 1st Tank Army destroying UAF drones in Kharkiv Oblast. Demonstrated capability for developing and deploying novel C-UAS solutions, such as the "setkomyot" net gun, to counter UAF FPV drones. Increased reconnaissance UAV activity towards Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia indicates sustained ISR capabilities. NEW: Colonelcassad reports "S.P.A.R.T.A. Battalion" destroying a UAF UAV control point in Dmytrivka, indicating continued focus on degrading UAF drone capabilities. MoD Russia claiming a tank crew destroyed a UAF UAV command post indicates adaptive anti-drone tactics with indirect fire. MoD Russia's video compilation of drone strikes explicitly lists "ПУ БПЛА ВСУ" (Ukrainian UAV command post) as a target, reinforcing this adaptive tactic. NEW: Colonelcassad's video showcasing thermobaric FPV drones by the 16th Guards Brigade of RHB Protection indicates a sophisticated capability for specialized and destructive drone warfare. NEW: Colonelcassad shares a video showcasing Russian drone operators from the Rubicon center targeting enemy reconnaissance UAVs. This indicates an active and specialized C-UAS capability, specifically focused on eliminating UAF ISR assets, directly impacting UAF battlefield intelligence gathering. NEW: ТАСС reports that drones from the 'Dnepr' grouping destroyed a US-made Paladin self-propelled artillery unit in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This is a significant claim of successful RF C-UAS and precision strike capabilities against high-value UAF equipment. The accompanying video describes the FPV drone operator's process of targeting, including using dust trails from artillery fire for identification. NEW: ТАСС shares a video claiming RF drone operators destroyed a tank and two UAF octocopters. This indicates effective RF counter-UAV operations and adaptive tactics. NEW: Два майора shares video of an 18th Army FPV drone operator targeting enemy vehicles on roads covered by anti-drone nets, explicitly stating that the nets "did not help." This indicates RF adaptation to UAF defensive measures. NEW: ТАСС releases a video of the "Severny Veter" drone, which recently underwent trials in the SVO zone, depicting its assembly, launch, and aerial reconnaissance capabilities, including thermal imaging of Ukrainian positions. This indicates RF's continued development and deployment of new drone technology.
Ground Offensive Capabilities: Sustained capacity for localized, high-attrition ground offensives on multiple axes (Pokrovsk, Lyman-Siversk, Kupiansk, Zaporizhzhia, Volchansk, Ivanivka, Dmytrivka targeting UAV C2, and Slaviansk direction), supported by heavy fire (TOS-1A, artillery, demonstrated 5th Army artillery strikes, shelling of Kurakhove, shelling of Lgov in Kursk Oblast, Smerch launch on Nikopol/Pokrov, Rostov Oblast UAV attack, Kursk Oblast power outages) and air/drone support. Demonstrated ability to secure incremental territorial gains (Pereyezdnoye, Novoivanivka, Serebryansky Forest, DeepState confirms RF advances near four settlements in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia). RF also claims pushing UAF out of Kirovsk (Krasnolimanskoye direction). New maps indicate pressure on Torske, Shandryholove, Kalynivske, and Poltavka. RF MoD claims UAF partial encirclement in Kupiansk. Continued preparations for battles in Zvanovka and claimed advances on Kupiansk direction (including Kotsnews report) demonstrate sustained ground offensive capabilities and objectives. Ongoing minor advances and consolidation will continue in areas like Melove, Dnepropetrovsk, Huliaipole, and South Donetsk (Colonelcassad maps, "Воин DV" report). RF will continue to push for the liberation of Kupiansk as claimed by Colonelcassad. Over 40 RF attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in a day indicates continued, fierce ground engagements. The Konstantinovka direction map and the drone footage of damaged roads indicate sustained RF ground presence and activity in these areas. The appeal from "Военкор Котенок" for medical kits/body armor indicates RF is sustaining high-attrition assaults on the Kharkiv direction. Colonelcassad's map showing claimed RF advances near Volchansk and in Kharkiv Oblast suggests adaptive shifts in ground offensive focus or an intensification of efforts in this sector. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a tactical map for the Kharkiv direction, showing continued RF ground activity. Colonelcassad states "ОБСТАНОВКА НА ЮЖНО-ДОНЕЦКОМ НАПРАВЛЕНИИ В ЗОНЕ ОТВЕТСТВЕННОСТИ ГРУППИРОВКИ ВОЙСК "ВОСТОК"." "Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны" claims the Russian Army has forded the Vovcha River and entered Ivanivka, advancing at the junction of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, indicating new offensive thrusts. Colonelcassad confirms that "East" Group units have forded the Vovcha River and taken positions in eastern Ivanivka, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. MoD Russia shares a video of servicemen of the Yug Group of Forces practicing assault operations in the rear area of the LPR. DeepState shares drone footage of UAF drone operators from 241st Territorial Defense Brigade successfully targeting Russian positions on the western outskirts of Stepnohirsk. Rybar shares tactical maps for the "Novoselovskoye Direction" and "Konstantinovskoye Direction" for September 22-23, 2025, providing visual corroboration of active RF operations. NEW: Военкор Котенок shares map overlays for the Krasnolimanskoye/Severkoye directions, suggesting continued RF focus on this area. NEW: DeepState shares video of 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Iron Falcons" striking enemy manpower east of Tovste. NEW: Colonelcassad shares video of Russian pilots striking the 24th Mechanized Brigade of the UAF with FAB-250s with UMPK. NEW: TASS reports the "Dnepr" grouping struck a UAF dugout in Zaporizhzhia Oblast with artillery. This confirms active RF ground and indirect fire capabilities in the southern sector. NEW: Colonelcassad shares video showcasing thermobaric terror by the 16th Guards Brigade of RHB Protection, using FPV drones against enemy positions. This indicates adaptive use of specialized units with highly destructive munitions in ground operations. NEW: ТАСС reports Russian Armed Forces are tightening the ring around Kupiansk, citing Russian security forces, reinforcing claims of an ongoing encirclement. NEW: ТАСС reports Marochko states RF has formed a fire pocket for UAF southeast of Zvanovka in DNR, indicating efforts to trap UAF forces. NEW: ТАСС reports that Kyiv has sent national battalions to Kupiansk in an attempt to hold back the Russian army, citing Marochko. This indicates RF awareness of UAF defensive measures and potential attempts to counter them. NEW: Рыбарь posts a video titled "SVO Chronicle for September 22-23," which likely contains further details and maps of claimed RF advances. NEW: ТАСС reports Russian operators of unmanned aerial vehicles in the area of the special military operation destroyed a tank and two octocopters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, citing the Ministry of Defense. This indicates continued RF ground offensive capabilities and effective drone support. NEW: ТАСС reports that assault groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces special company retreated with heavy losses near Synelnykove, Kharkiv Oblast, citing Russian security forces. This is an RF claim of successful defensive action and UAF losses. NEW: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports shelling of Nikopol with heavy artillery and FPV drones, damaging a five-story building, a car, and a power line. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares videos and photos claiming massive RF strikes on military objects in Kharkiv, showing explosions and fires. NEW: WarGonzo provides tactical maps for various fronts, confirming continued RF ground operations and claimed advancements. NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports RF conducted 95 combat engagements in the last 24 hours, including 19 assaults on Kupiansk, 10 on Lyman, 15 on Pokrovsk, 9 on Vremivka, and 8 on Orikhiv directions. This confirms high-tempo, multi-axis ground offensive capabilities. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF forces struck UAF dislocaton points of the 425th regiment and 47th brigade near Yunakivka on the Sumy direction. NEW: Colonelcassad shares video of the 57th Separate Reconnaissance Spetsnaz Unit (orSpN) destroying two UAF temporary deployment points (PVD) near Oktyabrsky. NEW: Colonelcassad shares a video showcasing Russian military activities, including artillery fire, troop movements, and drone footage of explosions and equipment. NEW: ТАСС shares video footage of a group of Ukrainian soldiers surrendering in Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, reinforcing RF claims of successful ground operations and UAF morale decline. NEW: ТАСС shares video footage of FSB of DNR destroying enemy DRG by "Gorynych" counter-terrorism unit on Dzerzhinsk direction, confirming RF capabilities against UAF ground infiltration. NEW: РБК-Україна shares a map showing enemy attacks in the Lyman-Siversk area, with UAF successfully repelling 15 attacks, directly contradicting RF claims of fire control and advances. NEW: ТАСС reports RF forces have approached Konstantinovka from several directions, citing DNR head Pushilin. This confirms sustained offensive intent and pressure on this axis.
Strategic Deterrence & IO: Putin's declared intent to deploy intermediate-range missiles indicates a capability to escalate strategic pressure on NATO. RF maintains sophisticated, adaptive information warfare capabilities to discredit UAF, exploit Western divisions, and bolster domestic support. Capacity to circumvent Western sanctions on consumer goods (TEBOE stores) indicates adaptability in maintaining the domestic economy and potentially sourcing dual-use components. Iran's statement on not seeking nuclear weapons could be leveraged by RF in arms control narratives. TASS framing Canada's attempt to seize An-124 as "robbery" is part of this IO. Colonelcassad reports Iran is acquiring advanced fighter jets and air defense systems from Russia and China, signaling strategic military-industrial cooperation that could indirectly support RF through burden-sharing or access to new technologies/doctrines. TASS reports Nebenzya's statements on Palestinian sovereignty and the need for diplomatic resolution in the Middle East, indicating RF's capability to use international platforms to project influence and critique US foreign policy. NEW: ТАСС reports European sponsors of Kyiv want the UN Security Council to live in a parallel reality and not see that Ukraine is losing on the battlefield and Zelenskyy has lost popular support, according to Dmitry Polyansky, Russian Permanent Representative to the UN. NEW: ТАСС reports that the EU and NATO are "deeply entangled" in the anti-Russian Ukrainian project, stated Dmitry Polyansky. NEW: ТАСС reports Britain is ready to act to protect the sky over NATO countries, stated UK Foreign Minister Yvette Cooper. NEW: ТАСС reports that the SCO is considering membership applications or status changes from 19 countries, according to Secretary-General Nurlan Yermekbayev. NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy stating on Fox News that Iran will never be on Ukraine's side. NEW: ТАСС reports Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin stated to "Izvestia" that the "war party in the EU" is trying to disrupt dialogue between the US and Russia by accusing Russia of provocations over alleged NATO airspace violations. NEW: ТАСС reports Pentagon head Pete Hegseth stated he would monitor the situation with fighters in Estonia, noting any violation of NATO airspace is unacceptable. NEW: ТАСС reports Trump's statements on Ukraine should not be seen as a change in American position. NEW: ТАСС reports the meeting between Rubio and Lavrov in New York is scheduled for Wednesday at 12:00 local time (19:00 MSK), indicating an important upcoming diplomatic engagement. NEW: G7 Foreign Ministers discussed new sanctions against Russia and potential measures against third countries, demonstrating RF's capability to generate international discussion and concern over its actions. NEW: TASS reports Maria Zakharova claimed a video of Kazakh President Tokayev at UNGA was a "crude fake," which demonstrates proactive RF strategic C2 in information control. NEW: ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova commented on the Polish leader's actions at the UNGA, framing it negatively, as "Westerners inhaling the air of freedom." This is a direct attempt at character assassination and undermining Western leadership through disinformation. NEW: Colonelcassad shares photo messages (18+) of a deceased UAF soldier, indicating RF efforts to highlight UAF casualties and demoralize UAF forces. NEW: TASS shares a video of Georgy Muradov, Permanent Representative of Crimea to the President of Russia, advocating for a deal with RF to avoid World War III and discussing Russia's nuclear capabilities. This is a direct capability to project strategic deterrence and shape international perceptions through high-level diplomatic messaging. NEW: Colonelcassad posts a video of a captured UAF serviceman recounting being tied to a tree and beaten by his commander, "Babai," for desertion. This narrative is intended to discredit UAF leadership and potentially demoralize UAF troops. NEW: ТАСС shares a video of popular musician Kasper giving his first interview for TASS on his performance before soldiers, aiming to boost morale among RF forces through cultural propaganda. NEW: ТАСС reports that figure skater Mark Kondratyuk has been added to the database of the Ukrainian extremist website "Mirotvorets," according to the resource's data. This is used by RF to frame UAF as "extremist" and to highlight perceived injustices against Russian citizens. NEW: Colonelcassad's video on online fraud schemes, if framed as a Western-backed activity, could be used for further disinformation. NEW: Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны (RF source) uses "Плохая новость для Зеленского" to frame Trump's statements from The Telegraph as negative for Ukraine. This indicates an immediate and opportunistic RF IO response to international diplomatic developments. NEW: Басурин о главном shares a photo of Lavrov arriving in New York to show Russia's determination to remain a key global player. NEW: ASTRA shares video of the Polish President speaking at the UN General Assembly, condemning Russia's colonial ambitions, which RF will attempt to counter. NEW: ТАСС shares Maria Zakharova's comment about anticipating trouble in Moldova if the people cannot repel Sandu's ideas of "Romanianization," framing it as an IO tactic to discredit Moldovan leadership and create regional instability. NEW: Kotsnews provides a commentary piece titled "What Zelensky showed Trump. And what he didn't," indicating RF's immediate analysis and counter-narrative to UAF diplomatic engagements. NEW: ТАСС reports Peskov denied Trump's assertion that Russia is a "paper tiger," stating Russia is a bear and "paper bears" do not exist, indicating high-level RF official response to international criticism and maintaining a strong image.
Internal Security and Control: Robust internal security apparatus to counter sabotage (FSB detention of father-son saboteurs, Novosibirsk terror attack prevention), suppress dissent (detention of mother for picket, prosecution of Maxim Katz, Maxym Katz arrested in absentia), and control information flow within Russia and occupied territories. FSB actively detaining individuals financing UAF. High-level anti-corruption probes are ongoing, with Judge Momotov and Alexey Bobrov under investigation. Polish detentions of sanctions-evaders for cars indicate broader issues in circumventing sanctions, likely affecting military components as well. Capacity to project state care for the population through new social legislation and internal security measures like proposed textbook window covers. Law enforcement operations like the mass arrests at a wedding in Krasnoyarsk demonstrate a strong internal security apparatus to enforce state control and push specific social issues like migration. New legislation on dog ownership indicates internal social control capabilities. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant halted production due to a UAV attack indicates RF's continued vulnerability to internal strikes, which will be met with increased internal security measures. The reported influx of hundreds of thousands of migrant workers indicates a capability to address labor shortages, crucial for sustaining the war economy's sustainment capacity. The reported fire at Novosibirsk Zoo and its localization showcase RF emergency response capabilities and ability to manage civilian incidents. TASS reports a new bill on fines for driving without OSAGO, indicating continued regulatory control. ASTRA reports a prosecutor's check has been organized for the fire at Novosibirsk Zoo. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a fire in Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast, which highlights RF's internal vulnerability to strikes, requiring increased internal security measures. ASTRA reports Rostov Oblast authorities admit reduced oil product production and export due to UAV attacks, signaling adaptive measures to mitigate economic impact. TASS reports a lawsuit against Alla Pugacheva over her statements about a Chechen separatist leader, demonstrating RF's capability to use legal means for internal control and to target public figures. Alex Parker Returns reports an ex-official fleeing a St. Petersburg court and hiding in the Armenian consulate, indicating adaptive internal security challenges. ASTRA reports a Moscow court will consider a lawsuit from a "combat veteran" against Alla Pugacheva, indicating continued judicial adaptation to internal political disputes. ASTRA reports UAF struck Taganrog, with video showing a UAV being destroyed during the attack. NEW: Colonelcassad shares video about the detention of a father and son involved in sabotage in Samara Oblast. NEW: ТАСС reports air defense forces are repelling a UAV attack in seven municipalities of Rostov Oblast. A private house caught fire in Sholokhov district. NEW: ТАСС reports the number of citizens' appeals to Putin's reception has significantly decreased after the entry into force of norms prohibiting anonymous electronic complaints, indicating strong internal control over public discourse. NEW: ТАСС reports the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) proposes not to allocate shares to foreigners in housing purchased with maternity capital, indicating an adaptive policy to control foreign influence and maintain social cohesion, especially concerning perceived demographic shifts. NEW: TASS reports Italian actress Claudia Cardinale died at 87, for general public interest. NEW: TASS reports a Steam outage in Russia, for general public interest. NEW: TASS reports a proposal to introduce voluntary OSAGO for couriers using personal mobility devices, indicating a capacity for new social policies. NEW: ТАСС reports the average nominal salary in RF was 103.2 thousand rubles in June and is expected to grow by 3-4% by year-end, indicating a capability to maintain economic stability and public confidence. NEW: TASS reports that Russians do not have enough time to take their 28 days of annual leave, indicating an internal social/economic issue. NEW: TASS reports the Ministry of Education supports an initiative to allow ninth-graders who fail state exams to pursue vocational training, indicating adaptive social policy. NEW: TASS reports two people were injured by shrapnel after a UAV attack in Rostov Oblast. NEW: TASS reports that seven out of ten Russians swear regularly, with one third swearing daily, with one third swearing daily, according to a VCIOM poll, indicating internal cultural trends. NEW: Полиция Хабаровского края reports on a resident of the Vanino district losing 220 thousand rubles to fraudsters, indicating sustained internal security challenges from cybercrime, further diverting internal resources. NEW: TASS reports The Coca-Cola Company may lose trademark rights in Russia by end of October. This will be framed internally as overcoming Western economic pressure and fostering domestic resilience. NEW: TASS reports the "SRZP" party insists on introducing free hot meals for all schoolchildren from 2026. This is a clear attempt to project government care and maintain social stability. NEW: ТАСС reports for residents damaged by a gas explosion in Tolyatti, temporary accommodation centers have been prepared, demonstrating a functional civil defense response to internal incidents and projecting state care. NEW: ТАСС reports Samara airport operations are temporarily restricted. NEW: TASS reports temporary restrictions have been introduced at Sochi and Gelendzhik airports, further indicating widespread internal security measures for air traffic in response to perceived threats. NEW: ТАСС reports that 59% of bloggers have moved to Telegram, demonstrating RF's capability to adapt to changing information landscapes and potentially leverage platforms like Telegram for enhanced information control and domestic stability. NEW: ТАСС reports that a terrorist attack against an official of the regional branch of the Federal Bailiff Service (ФССП) was prevented in Novosibirsk by the FSB. This highlights continued internal security threats and RF counter-terrorism efforts. NEW: ТАСС reports a massive UAV attack was repelled in Volgograd Oblast, and ASTRA confirms that air defense repelled a drone attack on fuel and energy facilities in Volgograd Oblast. This demonstrates RF's ability to defend its territory, reinforcing narratives of strength. NEW: ТАСС reports Wildberries and Ozon are ready to discuss the Ministry of Economic Development's proposal to introduce a non-refundable tariff on a number of goods to protect against consumer abuse, indicating adaptive internal economic policy and state control over marketplaces. NEW: ASTRA reports that the FSB reported preventing a terrorist attack in Novosibirsk against an official of the Federal Bailiff Service. This highlights the ongoing internal security efforts by RF. NEW: ТАСС reports that the Novosibirsk Zoo has resumed operations after the fire. This indicates successful management of a civilian incident. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of the FSB detaining a resident of Yekaterinburg on suspicion of financing UAF, indicating continued internal security actions. NEW: TASS reports "Corporation STS" is ready to transfer "Oblkommunenergo" to state ownership if the state insists, indicating direct state pressure on private entities. NEW: ASTRA reports a Moscow court has upheld the absentee arrest of Maxim Katz. NEW: ТАСС reports the RF Ministry of Finance proposes to raise VAT from 20% to 22% for defense and security funding. NEW: Север.Реалии reports an ex-official of Rosreestr fled court in St. Petersburg and was found dead in a toilet in the Armenian consulate. This is a significant internal security incident involving a high-profile individual. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 announces the autumn conscription drive, with electronic summonses, indicating state control over mobilization. NEW: Новости Москвы reports the Russian Ministry of Finance has submitted amendments to the tax code, including increasing VAT from 20% to 22%, to the government. This is a significant economic policy shift. NEW: Два майора states the Ministry of Finance proposes these changes (increasing VAT) to primarily finance defense and security. NEW: Новости Москвы reports a new Orthodox messenger "Zosima" has been launched in Russia, indicating state-supported efforts to create alternative communication platforms with an ideological bent. NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports public outrage over Maxim Divnich, a supporter, being criticized, indicating efforts to manage internal narratives around public figures. NEW: ТАСС reports Samara airport operations have resumed.
New Military Industrial Production: The presentation of the new MLRS "Sarma" by "Мотовилихинские заводы" indicates ongoing RF military industrial production and upgrades, bolstering their offensive fire capabilities. NEW: ТАСС reports the first arctic unmanned boat "Breeze" was shown at the "Neva-2025" exhibition. This indicates RF development of advanced unmanned maritime systems with potential military applications, including reconnaissance, surveillance, or even payload delivery. NEW: ТАСС reports Russian operators of unmanned aerial vehicles in the area of the special military operation destroyed a tank and two octocopters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, citing the Ministry of Defense. This demonstrates ongoing RF military production and deployment of advanced drone systems. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares photo messages of new military equipment, labeled "НОВИНКА!", which likely indicates new production or upgrades of military hardware, boosting RF capabilities. NEW: ТАСС releases a video of the "Severny Veter" drone, which recently underwent trials in the SVO zone, depicting its assembly, launch, and aerial reconnaissance capabilities, including thermal imaging of Ukrainian positions. This indicates RF's continued development and deployment of new drone technology. NEW: Басурин о главном shares a video of new Su-35S fighter jets being delivered to the Russian army after ground and flight factory tests. This indicates continued RF military industrial production and capability upgrades. NEW: Colonelcassad shares a video of Rostec testing a lightweight version of the "Obereg" assault body armor, indicating continued development in troop protection.
Economic Potential of Occupied Territories: NEW: TASS reports Viktor Vodolatsky, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee for CIS Affairs, Eurasian Integration, and Relations with Compatriots, states that regions reunited with the Russian Federation will repay investments, contributing at least 10% to GDP. This indicates an RF capability and intent to extract economic value from occupied territories, likely to support the war effort and project internal economic resilience.
Logistical Innovation (Civilian/Dual-Use): NEW: TASS reports on projects to develop drone-delivery postamats. While a civilian initiative, this suggests ongoing technological innovation within RF that could eventually have dual-use applications for military logistics, particularly in contested areas or for last-mile delivery.

Intentions:

Degrade UAF Warfighting Capacity and Civilian Morale: Through persistent mass aerial strikes, crippling energy infrastructure (with anticipation of future strikes, and ZNPP being disconnected, and now potentially power cuts to ZNPP, and power outages in Kursk Oblast and Belgorod Oblast, destruction of Kharkiv power substation, and attack on Salavat petrochemical complex), indiscriminate attacks on urban centers (Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, Nikopol, New Moscow residential areas, Kurakhove, Lgov in Kursk Oblast, Valuyki in Belgorod Oblast, Kharkiv city, Mykolaiv Oblast, Belgorod, Kryvyi Rih, Kursk (Lgov) fire/explosion, Volgograd airport restrictions, Rostov Oblast UAV attack, Chuhuiv, Kyiv, Snihurivka, Tolyatti, Belgorod Oblast power outages, Paladin SAU in Zaporizhzhia, Zenzevatka oil pumping station fire, Salavat petrochemical complex in Bashkiria, Kherson), newly observed attacks on Ukrainian railway infrastructure, and direct strikes on defense industrial complexes (Motor Sich, Ivchenko-Progress, Paladin SAU in Zaporizhzhia). UN Secretary-General Guterres' statement confirms this RF intent. RF IO is actively highlighting massive attacks on energy infrastructure of border regions, implying a capability and intent to continue these types of strikes against Ukrainian targets. RF strikes on military objects in Kharkiv reinforce this intention to degrade UAF capabilities. The continuous shelling of the ZNPP power line, attributed to UAF by TASS, is a narrative aimed at deflecting blame for energy disruption.
Force UAF to Allocate Reserves: By maintaining multi-axis ground pressure, RF aims to stretch UAF resources and prevent concentration for counter-offensives. Claim of partial encirclement in Kupiansk and the "fire pocket" near Zvanovka reflects this intent. Advancing on Zvanovka and Volchansk further demonstrates an intent to open new tactical fronts or consolidate control. RF's claim of Kyiv sending national battalions to Kupiansk reflects an intent to stress UAF's ability to reinforce key defensive points. The reported UAF retreat with heavy losses near Synelnykove, Kharkiv Oblast, if verified, would indicate an RF intention to inflict significant attrition on UAF forces. RF acknowledged UAF's limited forces in Kupiansk but expects UAF to reinforce, thus maintaining pressure to fix UAF units. The reported surrender of Ukrainian soldiers in Kupiansk, if verifiable, would indicate a successful RF intent to break UAF morale and defensive lines.
Escalate Strategic Pressure on NATO (Mixed Signals): Putin's declared intent to deploy intermediate-range missiles indicates a capability to escalate strategic pressure on NATO. This is underscored by NATO's strong statements on RF airspace violations and Norway reporting airspace violations. TASS report on Rutte's statement about "no immediate threat" and Rutte's nuanced statement about real-time assessment of threat for engagement could indicate a tactical softening of the message to avoid over-escalation while still pushing a point. WarGonzo reporting on Polish threats aims to highlight perceived NATO aggression. RF IO will continue to frame Romanian F-16 activity near Moldova as provocative NATO action. Trump's criticism of NATO members for not increasing defense spending will be leveraged to sow discord within the alliance. TASS's Marochko report about NATO wanting to unleash conflict in Moldova highlights RF's intent to portray Western aggression. Rubio's statement that NATO will not shoot down Russian aircraft if they do not engage in aggressive actions might be used by RF to probe NATO response thresholds. Trump's statement that NATO countries should shoot down Russian aircraft violating Alliance airspace could be leveraged by RF to portray NATO as aggressive and reckless, while also testing NATO's internal cohesion. Zelenskyy's statement that Trump agreed Putin won't wait for war's end and will seek weaknesses in Europe/NATO indicates RF intent to escalate outside Ukraine. NEW: ТАСС reports Britain is ready to act to protect the sky over NATO countries, stated UK Foreign Minister Yvette Cooper, signaling a robust NATO response that RF will interpret as aggressive. NEW: ТАСС reports Pentagon head Pete Hegseth stated he would monitor the situation with fighters in Estonia, noting any violation of NATO airspace is unacceptable. NEW: ТАСС reports Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin stated to "Izvestia" that the "war party in the EU" is trying to disrupt dialogue between the US and Russia by accusing Russia of provocations over alleged NATO airspace violations. NEW: ТАСС reports Trump's statements on Ukraine should not be seen as a change in American position. NEW: G7 Foreign Ministers discussed new sanctions against Russia and potential measures against third countries, indicating a sustained intent by Western powers to apply economic pressure. NEW: ASTRA shares video of the Polish President speaking at the UN General Assembly, condemning Russia's colonial ambitions, which RF will interpret as hostile rhetoric. NEW: ТАСС shares Maria Zakharova's comment about anticipating trouble in Moldova if the people cannot repel Sandu's ideas of "Romanianization," framing it as an IO tactic to discredit Moldovan leadership and create regional instability. NEW: ТАСС reports Peskov denied Trump's assertion that Russia is a "paper tiger," stating Russia is a bear and "paper bears" do not exist, indicating high-level RF official response to international criticism and maintaining a strong image.
Exploit Western Divisions: Leverage political and diplomatic fault lines within NATO/EU to weaken collective support for Ukraine. RF IO on migrant issues in Europe (via "Два майора" post, and Alex Parker Returns, and Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны) indicates attempts to sow discord. Denial of US visas to Lavrov's press pool will be framed as an anti-Russian act. Marco Rubio's statement highlights constraints on US sanctions if Europe continues to buy Russian energy, potentially impacting the broader aid environment. To undermine Western leaders and portray them as subservient to US influence (Fighterbomber's Macron video). TASS reporting Lula da Silva's statement on "no military solution" will be heavily amplified to push for negotiations and undermine continued military aid for UAF. RBC-Ukraine reporting Trump's criticisms of Biden and claims about NATO will be used to highlight internal Western discord. Trump's claims regarding China and India as "main sponsors" of the war and NATO countries still buying Russian products will be amplified to create rifts and deflect blame. Trump's comments on climate change will be leveraged to align with RF narratives and sow scientific/political discord. Erdogan's call for recognition of Palestine could be leveraged to further divide Western diplomatic efforts. TASS reporting Trump mentioned Russia 10 times in his speech could be used to project RF's global significance. TASS reports Ursula von der Leyen's statement that the EU will "forever" abandon Russian energy carriers by 2027, which RF will leverage as a sign of Western economic self-harm or further attempts to isolate Russia. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Denmark suspects Russian-crewed civilian vessels of organizing drone launches over Copenhagen Airport, which RF will deny, using it to highlight Western "Russophobia." TASS reports Nebenzya's statements on Palestine, used to highlight perceived US hypocrisy or lack of diplomatic resolution. Colonelcassad reports NATO weapons from Ukraine with Spanish drug cartels, used to delegitimize Western military aid and support narratives of Western complicity in crime. Военкор Котенок (RF source) shares a photo message with a caption arguing that the collective West is aiming to liquidate Russia's current system of power and collapse its economy. Два майора (RF source) reports on the Trump and Zelenskyy meeting, concluding that "there will be no peace." NEW: ТАСС reports Trump preserves the possibility of tightening sanctions against RF and supplying weapons to Ukraine, according to Rubio, used by RF to frame Trump as potentially hostile to RF. NEW: Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны amplifies Zelenskyy's statement about Putin not waiting for the end of the war and seeking weaknesses in Europe/NATO, to portray Russia as an aggressive actor, justifying its own defensive actions. NEW: Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video of Zelenskyy speaking at the UN, with "Ukraine can win all of country back, Trump says" overlay, used by RF to dismiss UAF territorial claims as unrealistic. NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares Trump's statement that his relations with Putin meant nothing for conflict resolution, used to emphasize the failure of diplomatic efforts and justify continued conflict. NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares Zelenskyy's statement on his meeting with Trump, likely to project a positive outcome for Ukraine. NEW: Рыбарь shares photo messages with the caption "Аэростаты на службе ВСУ" (Aerostats in service of the AFU), used to identify UAF adaptive tactics and potentially criticize RF air defense. NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares Trump's statement that the war will not end soon, aligning with grim realities and preparing for prolonged conflict. NEW: ТАСС shares Russian Permanent Representative to the UN Polyansky's statement blaming Kyiv for ignoring international humanitarian law, used to deflect blame from RF actions. NEW: НгП раZVедка shares a derogatory statement about Kharkiv citizens, likely in response to power outages there, reflecting IO to dehumanize Ukrainians. NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy explains how he convinced Trump not to believe Putin's "fairytales" about the battlefield situation, which RF IO will likely attempt to dismiss or counter. NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy's statement that Trump now believes in Ukraine's ability to regain all its territory and views Trump as a "game-changer," which RF IO will immediately dispute. NEW: РБК-Україна shares video of Zelenskyy speaking on why Putin is absent from the UN Security Council meeting, which RF IO will likely attempt to counter. NEW: ТАСС reports Marco Rubio states the war in Ukraine will end through diplomacy, which RF IO will amplify to push for negotiations on their terms. NEW: ТАСС reports European sponsors of Kyiv want the UN Security Council to live in a parallel reality and not see that Ukraine is losing on the battlefield and Zelenskyy has lost popular support, according to Dmitry Polyansky, Russian Permanent Representative to the UN. NEW: ТАСС reports that the EU and NATO are "deeply entangled" in the anti-Russian Ukrainian project, stated Dmitry Polyansky. NEW: Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны shares video and photo messages claiming a massive attack on Kharkiv, resulting in powerful fires and power outages. NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy stating on Fox News that Trump understands "we cannot just exchange territories." NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy stating on Fox News that Trump can change Xi Jinping's attitude toward the war, and that "we don't feel that China wants to end this war." NEW: ТАСС reports Pentagon head Pete Hegseth stated he would monitor the situation with fighters in Estonia, noting any violation of NATO airspace is unacceptable. NEW: ТАСС reports Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin stated to "Izvestia" that the "war party in the EU" is trying to disrupt dialogue between the US and Russia by accusing Russia of provocations over alleged NATO airspace violations. NEW: ТАСС reports Trump's statements on Ukraine should not be seen as a change in American position. NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy states Ukraine and other countries proposed negotiations with Russia at the leadership level, even in Kazakhstan. NEW: ТАСС reports an incident at the UN, where an escalator with Trump on it stopped due to a security mechanism activated by a US delegation videographer, which RF IO will exploit to delegitimize US security operations. NEW: TASS reports Crimean head Sergey Aksyonov stated that Kyiv is trying to damage Crimea's economy by striking the peninsula, which is a direct IO attempt to justify RF defensive actions and portray UAF as an economic aggressor. NEW: Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны (RF source) reports on a veteran explaining his refusal of a deputy mandate in Voronezh, which RF IO will frame as a narrative of loyalty and continued military service, highlighting personal sacrifice and dedication, bolstering morale. NEW: Colonelcassad shares an interview with a captured Russian soldier, which will be used to portray UAF mistreatment of POWs and demoralize UAF forces. NEW: TASS reports Melania Trump rejected requests from Ukraine's First Lady Olena Zelenska for a meeting, which RF IO will leverage to highlight lack of Western support or to diminish Ukraine's diplomatic standing. NEW: TASS reports Maria Zakharova claimed a video of Kazakh President Tokayev at UNGA was a "crude fake," which will be used to discredit any positive diplomatic outcomes for Ukraine. NEW: ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova commented on the Polish leader's actions at the UNGA, framing it negatively, as "Westerners inhaling the air of freedom." This is a direct attempt at character assassination and undermining Western leadership through disinformation. NEW: Colonelcassad shares photo messages (18+) of a deceased UAF soldier, indicating RF efforts to highlight UAF casualties and demoralize UAF forces. NEW: TASS shares a video of Georgy Muradov, Permanent Representative of Crimea to the President of Russia, using the UNGA platform to project strategic deterrence and shape international perceptions, framing Russia as a nuclear power that the US must negotiate with to avoid a third world war. This is a clear adaptive IO tactic to exploit geopolitical anxieties. NEW: Colonelcassad posts a video of a captured UAF serviceman recounting being tied to a tree and beaten by his commander, "Babai," for desertion. This narrative is intended to discredit UAF leadership and potentially demoralize UAF troops. NEW: ТАСС shares a video of popular musician Kasper giving his first interview for TASS on his performance before soldiers, aiming to boost morale among RF forces through cultural propaganda. NEW: ТАСС reports that figure skater Mark Kondratyuk has been added to the database of the Ukrainian extremist website "Mirotvorets," according to the resource's data. This is used by RF to frame UAF as "extremist" and to highlight perceived injustices against Russian citizens. NEW: ТАСС reports that Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel, sent to front-line positions by deception, died in Kharkiv Oblast. This is an RF claim of successful defensive action and UAF losses due to deceptive practices. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares videos of Zelenskyy's interview on Fox News, which RF will attempt to counter. NEW: WarGonzo reports on the Ukrainian Rada's intention to limit journalist work, which will be framed as suppression of free speech and evidence of totalitarianism. NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares White House photos of the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting with the caption "He is a brave man, and he puts up a fierce fight," indicating a positive framing by US sources, which RF IO will likely attempt to counter. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Polish President Navrotsky states Russian aggression is purely ideological. NEW: STERNENKO shares a video of a pro-Russian figure being indignant about a "forced pause" on Khreshchatyk for a minute of silence, framing it as a "cemetery." This indicates RF IO's efforts to exploit internal Ukrainian dissent and discredit UAF national symbols. NEW: Два майора states the Ministry of Finance proposes these changes (increasing VAT) to primarily finance defense and security, which is a key domestic IO narrative to justify economic changes. NEW: Новости Москвы reports a new Orthodox messenger "Zosima" has been launched in Russia, indicating state-supported efforts to create alternative communication platforms with an ideological bent, serving an IO purpose. NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports public outrage over Maxim Divnich, a supporter, being criticized, indicating efforts to manage internal narratives around public figures. NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА shares photo messages labeled "Магуры добрались до Португалии" which is a propaganda piece trying to extend UAF USV reach to NATO territory to justify RF aggression.
- Consolidate and Expand Territorial Control: Achieve incremental gains on key axes to solidify occupied positions and establish more defensible lines. To inflict maximum attrition on UAF manpower (5th Army artillery strike, heavy casualties reported by RF soldier, Trump's reported casualty figures). To extract economic value from occupied territories as stated by Vodolatsky.
- Maintain Domestic Stability: Project an image of strength, resilience, and effective governance to the Russian population, counteracting UAF deep strikes and internal dissent. Veteran status for volunteers, and anti-corruption probes, serve this purpose. Domestic social initiatives (mortgage holidays, student housing, IVF pensions, tax notifications, dog ownership legislation, domestic toy advertising, tax deductions for sports) aim to project care for the population and a functioning state. To portray stability and control in occupied territories, while simultaneously framing any internal incidents as isolated or linked to Ukrainian influence (Mariupol bus incident, Stakhanov double homicide). Using old textbooks to protect schools in Belgorod aims to project state care despite external threats. The swift release of the mother after the picket might be framed as a humane, just response by a strong state. The mass arrests at a Krasnoyarsk wedding, even if framed as a "Friendship of Peoples" event gone wrong, will be used to demonstrate robust internal security and control over migrant populations. TASS report on court decisions like Mitvol's denied early release and denying boarding to a family reinforce an image of a functional, orderly legal system. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА's video from the State Duma on utility providers aims to project a caring state that fights corruption. Kotsnews video on a veteran giving up his mandate will be used to promote narratives of patriotism and service within the Russian military and political system. ТАСС's report on increased advertising for domestic toys to counter "alien Western values" demonstrates pervasive state-controlled IO to shape national identity, particularly for youth. Народная милиция ДНР's humanitarian aid delivery video supports narratives of RF care for wounded. AV БогомаZ's meeting with RF Minister of Construction and Housing emphasizes state commitment to reconstruction. TASS reports MVD is not proposing additional burdens on right-hand drive cars will be presented as responsive and caring governance. "Два майора" sharing kitten videos serves as a soft-power tactic to humanize soldiers and project a caring image. Kadyrov's meeting with Pushilin will be used to project unity and stability in occupied regions. Alex Parker Returns highlights incoming migrants to fill labor shortages, likely to project economic stability and growth. "Новости Москвы" reporting on heating NEW: ТАСС reports that the SCO is considering membership applications or status changes from 19 countries, which RF will use to project growing international influence and counter Western efforts to isolate it. NEW: ТАСС reports the number of citizens' appeals to Putin's reception has significantly decreased after the entry into force of norms prohibiting anonymous electronic complaints, used to demonstrate effective governance and control over public dissatisfaction. NEW: ТАСС reports the LDPR proposal not to allocate shares to foreigners in housing purchased with maternity capital, framed as a measure to protect national interests and social welfare. NEW: TASS reports Italian actress Claudia Cardinale died at 87, for general public interest. NEW: TASS reports a Steam outage in Russia, for general public interest. NEW: TASS reports a proposal to introduce voluntary OSAGO for couriers using personal mobility devices, indicating a capacity for new social policies. NEW: ТАСС reports the average nominal salary in RF was 103.2 thousand rubles in June and is expected to grow by 3-4% by year-end, which will be used to project economic stability. NEW: TASS reports that Russians do not have enough time to take their 28 days of annual leave, which is domestic IO to show a thriving economy with high employment. NEW: TASS reports the Ministry of Education supports an initiative to allow ninth-graders who fail state exams to pursue vocational training, which is domestic IO to show government support for education and workforce development. NEW: TASS reports two people were injured by shrapnel after a UAV attack in Rostov Oblast. NEW: TASS reports that seven out of ten Russians swear regularly, with one third swearing daily, with one third swearing daily, according to a VCIOM poll, which is domestic IO aimed at social trends. NEW: Полиция Хабаровского края reports on a resident of the Vanino district losing 220 thousand rubles to fraudsters, indicating sustained internal security challenges from cybercrime, further diverting internal resources. NEW: TASS reports The Coca-Cola Company may lose trademark rights in Russia by end of October. This will be framed internally as a successful adaptation to Western sanctions and a move towards self-sufficiency. NEW: TASS reports the "SRZP" party insists on introducing free hot meals for all schoolchildren from 2026. This is a clear attempt to project government care and maintain social stability. NEW: ТАСС reports for residents damaged by a gas explosion in Tolyatti, temporary accommodation centers have been prepared, demonstrating a functional civil defense response to internal incidents and projecting state care. NEW: ТАСС reports Samara airport operations are temporarily restricted. NEW: TASS reports temporary restrictions have been introduced at Sochi and Gelendzhik airports, which will be presented as necessary security measures in response to external threats. NEW: ТАСС reports that 59% of bloggers have moved to Telegram, demonstrating RF's capability to adapt to changing information landscapes and potentially leverage platforms like Telegram for enhanced information control and domestic stability. NEW: ТАСС reports that a terrorist attack against an official of the regional branch of the Federal Bailiff Service (ФССП) was prevented in Novosibirsk by the FSB. This highlights continued internal security threats and RF counter-terrorism efforts. NEW: ТАСС reports a massive UAV attack was repelled in Volgograd Oblast, and ASTRA confirms that air defense repelled a drone attack on fuel and energy facilities in Volgograd Oblast. This demonstrates RF's ability to defend its territory, reinforcing narratives of strength. NEW: ТАСС reports Wildberries and Ozon are ready to discuss the Ministry of Economic Development's proposal to introduce a non-refundable tariff on a number of goods to protect against consumer abuse, indicating adaptive internal economic policy and state control over marketplaces. NEW: ASTRA reports that the FSB reported preventing a terrorist attack in Novosibirsk against an official of the Federal Bailiff Service. This highlights the ongoing internal security efforts by RF. NEW: ТАСС reports that the Novosibirsk Zoo has resumed operations after the fire. This indicates successful management of a civilian incident. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of the FSB detaining a resident of Yekaterinburg on suspicion of financing UAF, indicating continued internal security actions. NEW: TASS reports "Corporation STS" is ready to transfer "Oblkommunenergo" to state ownership if the state insists, indicating direct state pressure on private entities. NEW: ASTRA reports a Moscow court has upheld the absentee arrest of Maxim Katz. NEW: ТАСС reports the RF Ministry of Finance proposes to raise VAT from 20% to 22% for defense and security funding. NEW: Север.Реалии reports an ex-official of Rosreestr fled court in St. Petersburg and was found dead in a toilet in the Armenian consulate. This is a significant internal security incident and potential for further instability. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 announces the autumn conscription drive, with electronic summonses, demonstrating intent to maintain manpower. NEW: Новости Москвы reports the Russian Ministry of Finance has submitted amendments to the tax code, including increasing VAT from 20% to 22%, to the government. This is a significant economic policy shift. NEW: Два майора states the Ministry of Finance proposes these changes (increasing VAT) to primarily finance defense and security. NEW: Новости Москвы reports a new Orthodox messenger "Zosima" has been launched in Russia, indicating state-supported efforts to create alternative communication platforms with an ideological bent. NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports public outrage over Maxim Divnich, a supporter, being criticized, indicating efforts to manage internal narratives around public figures. NEW: ТАСС reports Samara airport operations have resumed. NEW: Mash na Donbashe shares video of police rescuing a woman from a burning apartment in Kurakhovo, framing it as a humanitarian effort in "recently liberated" territory.
- Courses of Action (COAs):
1. Sustained and Intensified Multi-Domain Pressure on Key Axes, with Continued Mass Aerial Attacks on Urban Centers, Critical Energy, and now Railway Infrastructure, including Defense Industrial Complexes, and now targeting Kyiv and Northeast Kharkiv. (Confidence: HIGH) This is reinforced by the reports of the Salavat petrochemical complex attack and the Kharkiv substation destruction.
2. Increased Ground Pressure on Key Axes and Exploitation of UAF Tactical Shifts (e.g., Kupiansk, Lyman-Siversk, Zvanovka, Volchansk, Ivanivka, Dmytrivka targeting UAV C2, and Konstantinovka). (Confidence: HIGH) The RF source "Zvиздец Мангусту" explicitly outlines RF's intent to maintain offensive momentum in Kupiansk to prevent UAF from regrouping. The reported surrender of UAF soldiers in Kupiansk (TASS video) could be leveraged to intensify pressure in this area. RF will also continue operations on the Slaviansk direction.
3. Amplified Hybrid Warfare with Focus on Strategic Deterrence, Ideological Attacks, and Western Disunity, specifically leveraging UN General Assembly statements and events, EU energy policy shifts, perceived US diplomatic rejection of Ukraine's First Lady, and narratives around alleged UAF USV threats to NATO territory. (Confidence: HIGH)
4. Deepening Strategic Partnerships, Military Modernization, and Addressing Labor Shortages, while maintaining strict internal security and ideological control, extracting economic value from occupied territories, and adapting to the loss of Western brand trademarks. (Confidence: HIGH)
5. Realigning Domestic Economic Policy for War Sustenance: (Confidence: HIGH) RF will continue to introduce fiscal measures (e.g., increased VAT, changes to simplified taxation, new taxes on bookmakers) and social programs (e.g., extended maternity capital) aimed at financing the war effort and maintaining internal social stability amidst economic pressures and rising defense spending.
6. Intensified Mobilization and Conscription: (Confidence: HIGH) The autumn conscription drive with electronic summonses indicates a clear intent to replenish manpower, potentially ahead of a winter campaign.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations (Confidence: HIGH)

Re-escalation of Mass Drone Attacks and Strategic Targeting: RF returned to launching large waves of UAVs (152 overnight), indicating an adaptive production and logistics chain and sustained intent to overwhelm UAF air defenses. The use of air balloons in drone attacks further demonstrates adaptive tactics to complicate interception. The claimed shoot-down of 58 Ukrainian UAVs over RF territory indicates an active defensive air campaign and implies RF is now more openly acknowledging inbound UAVs. Claims of "Geran" hits in Zaporizhzhia highlight continued direct impacts. New КАБ launches in Zaporizhzhia and Sumy Oblasts indicate continued, varied aerial assault tactics. Strikes on Motor Sich and Ivchenko-Progress facilities indicate a renewed focus on degrading Ukraine's defense industrial base. The reported 5 reactive Shahed strikes on Zaporizhzhia in 20 minutes indicates an increased tempo and potential use of advanced UAVs for rapid, concentrated attacks. ZNPP disconnected from its last external power line is a tactical disruption to Ukraine's energy supply. Continued UAV activity towards Zaporizhzhia, Nikopol, Zlatopil, Balaklia, Lebedyn, and now Hadyach/Okhtyrka demonstrates adaptive and sustained aerial tactics. RF MoD claims 34 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Belgorod, Kursk, and Tula Oblasts, indicating continued active air defense operations against UAF drone threats. UAF Air Force reports continued RF UAV activity in Kharkiv Oblast, demonstrating persistent reconnaissance/strike capabilities. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Denmark suspects civilian vessels with Russian crews of organizing drone launches over Copenhagen Airport, implying an RF capability for clandestine drone operations. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports several UAVs from Sumy and Kharkiv regions heading towards Poltava Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target in Kharkiv Oblast towards Pechenihy. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Kharkiv city is under a massive attack by enemy strike UAVs. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on the east of Mykolaiv Oblast, course - western. STERNENKO reports fire and impacts in the Valuyki region of Belgorod Oblast, near railway infrastructure, from a UAV attack, indicating adaptive deep strikes on RF territory. ASTRA reports RF forces struck Kharkiv, causing power outages, indicating continued adaptive strikes. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports a missile strike on Belgorod, with photos confirming damage, indicating active RF strikes. NEW: TASS reports 19 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF regions and the Black Sea in two hours. NEW: ASTRA reports 19 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF regions and Black Sea. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repeated КАБ launches on Donetsk Oblast. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV continuing towards Odesa Oblast (vector - Dobroslav). NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target east of Zaporizhzhia moving north. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target from occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Nikopol. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repeated КАБ launches on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. NEW: Николаевский Ванёк reports a КАБ launched on Zaporizhzhia. NEW: "Suspilne" reports sounds of explosions in Kryvyi Rih. NEW: РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Zaporizhzhia. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports fire and damage to private homes in one district of Zaporizhzhia after RF attack. NEW: ТАСС reports air defense forces are repelling a UAV attack in seven municipalities of Rostov Oblast. A private house caught fire in Sholokhov district. NEW: Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны shares video and photo messages claiming powerful fires on enemy objects in Kharkiv and disappearance of light, indicating a tactical adaptation to target urban infrastructure. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photo messages of one of the damaged houses in Zaporizhzhia due to enemy attack, reinforcing high impact. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photo messages of emergency services (ДСНС ЗАПОРІЖЖЯ) responding to two RF FAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia. NEW: РБК-УкраїНА shares photo message of a damaged house in Zaporizhzhia due to RF attack. NEW: РБК-Україна shares photo message of two RF FAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia. NEW: РБК-Україна reports RF launched several drone strikes on Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast. NEW: TASS reports two people were injured by shrapnel after a UAV attack in Rostov Oblast, indicating continued civilian casualties. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation in Northeast Kharkiv region. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on course for Kyiv from the east. NEW: ASTRA shares multiple photo messages showing the aftermath of a nighttime RF attack on Zaporizhzhia, confirming continued strikes and damage to civilian areas. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Kherson region on course for Mykolaiv region. NEW: Сили оборони Півдня України reports 20 shellings on 12 settlements in the past day, indicating continuous fire support and targeting. NEW: ТАСС reports Samara airport operations are temporarily restricted, possibly due to a drone threat. NEW: TASS reports temporary restrictions have been introduced at Sochi and Gelendzhik airports, likely due to a perceived drone threat. This indicates an adaptive security response to a broader, more persistent UAV threat. NEW: ТАСС reports a massive UAV attack was repelled in Volgograd Oblast, and ASTRA confirms that air defense repelled a drone attack on fuel and energy facilities in Volgograd Oblast. This confirms a new UAF deep strike target area and significant RF air defense activity, but also demonstrates RF capability to repel such attacks. NEW: ТАСС reports that power outages occurred in one district of Belgorod Oblast due to a UAF attack. This confirms ongoing UAF deep strikes on RF territory, indicating continued vulnerability to aerial attacks. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. NEW: Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares video of explosions and fires in Kharkiv, reinforcing the impact of RF aerial strikes. NEW: ТАСС shares a video claiming RF drone operators destroyed a tank and two UAF octocopters. This signals continued RF anti-armor and counter-UAV air activity. NEW: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports shelling of Nikopol with heavy artillery and FPV drones, damaging a five-story building, a car, and a power line. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares videos and photos claiming massive RF strikes on military objects in Kharkiv, showing explosions and fires. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, heading for Pryluky. NEW: НгП раZVедка claims destruction of power substation "Ivanivka" in Kharkiv by 21 strike UAVs. NEW: ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, and STERNENKO all report on a significant fire at the Salavat petrochemical complex in Bashkiria, attributed to drone attacks. NEW: Fighterbomber shares a photo message about an aviation engineer meeting an aircraft crew that landed in "zero visibility" due to sudden weather deterioration, indicating operational adaptation to challenging flight conditions. NEW: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, shares images of a large fire in Kharkiv. NEW: Басурин о главном shares a video showing new Su-35S fighter jets in flight. This confirms continued operational readiness and production of advanced RF fighter aircraft, demonstrating adapted air capabilities. NEW: ТАСС reports UAF continuously shelling the damaged 750 kV "Dniprovska" power line of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), delaying its restoration, which is a key RF IO adaptation to shift blame for energy disruption. NEW: Colonelcassad shares video showing strikes by "Geran" drones on the Ivanivka substation in Kharkiv on September 23, 2025, confirming the target and date of the RF strike on critical infrastructure. NEW: РБК-Україна shares video of damage to historical residential buildings and an active fire in Kherson, indicating continued RF targeting of civilian areas. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a new "Attention!" warning, indicating ongoing air threats.
Increased Targeting of Civilian Urban Infrastructure with КАБ/FABs and FPVs: Lethal strikes on Zaporizhzhia residential areas and Odesa, and the FPV strike in Nikopol, killing a civilian, signify a tactical shift to maximize civilian casualties and psychological impact, moving beyond purely military or energy infrastructure. Confirmed damage to residential areas in New Moscow from UAV attack. Zaporizhzhia attacks confirm this continued trend, with 5 Shahed strikes and increased casualties. Artillery shelling of Kurakhove, if attributed to RF, indicates continued targeting of civilian areas near the front. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a new fatality from the Sep 7 RF strike in Sviatoshynskyi district of Kyiv. UAF Air Force reports continued RF UAV activity towards Zaporizhzhia, Nikopol, Zlatopil, Balaklia, Lebedyn, and now Hadyach/Okhtyrka, indicating sustained aerial threats. RF MoD claims 34 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Belgorod, Kursk, and Tula Oblasts, indicating continued active air defense operations against UAF drone threats. UAF Air Force reports continued RF UAV activity in Kharkiv Oblast, demonstrating persistent reconnaissance/strike capabilities. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF CLAIM, Confidence: MEDIUM) reports that power supply to ZNPP was cut after a UAF strike, representing a significant setback for Ukrainian energy infrastructure. ASTRA reports one person died and three were injured as a result of a Russian attack in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF sources confirm a second fatality in Zaporizhzhia, highlighting the increased lethality of these strikes. Explosions and UAV attacks in Kharkiv will negatively impact civilian morale, but active air defense efforts may mitigate this. A UAV is heading for Mykolaiv Oblast from the east. The governor of Kursk Oblast reports Lgov is under enemy shelling. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports most of the 16 strikes in Kharkiv hit the Kholodnohirskyi district. ASTRA reports RF forces struck Kharkiv, causing power outages. Explosions are reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. NEW: Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны reports missile strike on Belgorod, 6 injured civilians. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of significant fire/explosion in Kursk (Lgov), attributed to a UAF strike on RF territory. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV continuing towards Odesa Oblast (vector - Dobroslav). NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target east of Zaporizhzhia moving north. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target from occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Nikopol. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repeated КАБ launches on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. NEW: Николаевский Ванёк reports a КАБ launched on Zaporizhzhia. NEW: "Suspilne" reports sounds of explosions in Kryvyi Rih. NEW: РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Zaporizhzhia. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports fire and damage to private homes in one district of Zaporizhzhia after RF attack. NEW: ТАСС reports air defense forces are repelling a UAV attack in seven municipalities of Rostov Oblast. A private house caught fire in Sholokhov district. NEW: Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны shares video and photo messages claiming powerful fires on enemy objects in Kharkiv and disappearance of light, indicating a tactical adaptation to target urban infrastructure. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photo messages of one of the damaged houses in Zaporizhzhia due to enemy attack, reinforcing high impact. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photo messages of emergency services (ДСНС ЗАПОРІЖЖЯ) responding to two RF FAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia. NEW: РБК-УкраїНА shares photo message of a damaged house in Zaporizhzhia due to RF attack. NEW: РБК-Україна shares photo message of two RF FAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia. NEW: РБК-Україна reports RF launched several drone strikes on Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast. NEW: TASS reports two people were injured by shrapnel after a UAV attack in Rostov Oblast, indicating continued civilian casualties. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation in Northeast Kharkiv region. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on course for Kyiv from the east. NEW: ASTRA shares multiple photo messages showing the aftermath of a nighttime RF attack on Zaporizhzhia, confirming continued strikes and damage to civilian areas. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Kherson region on course for Mykolaiv region. NEW: Сили оборони Півдня України reports 20 shellings on 12 settlements in the past day, confirming continuous targeting of civilian areas. NEW: ТАСС reports for residents damaged by a gas explosion in Tolyatti, temporary accommodation centers have been prepared, indicating a civilian incident with environmental impact. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports that in Zaporizhzhia one high-rise building and three private houses were damaged due to a nighttime enemy attack. This confirms further civilian infrastructure damage. NEW: ТАСС reports that power outages occurred in one district of Belgorod Oblast due to a UAF attack. This confirms ongoing UAF deep strikes on RF territory, indicating continued targeting of critical infrastructure. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that in the Shevchenkivskyi district of Zaporizhzhia, as a result of a Russian attack, one apartment building and three private houses were damaged, citing OBA. This reinforces the confirmed RF adaptive tactic of targeting civilian infrastructure. NEW: Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares video of explosions and fires in Kharkiv, reinforcing the impact of RF aerial strikes. NEW: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports shelling of Nikopol with heavy artillery and FPV drones, damaging a five-story building, a car, and a power line. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares videos and photos claiming massive RF strikes on military objects in Kharkiv, showing explosions and fires. NEW: НгП раZVедка claims destruction of power substation "Ivanivka" in Kharkiv by 21 strike UAVs. NEW: ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, and STERNENKO all report on a significant fire at the Salavat petrochemical complex in Bashkiria, attributed to drone attacks. NEW: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, shares images of a large fire in Kharkiv. NEW: РБК-Україна shares video of damage to historical residential buildings and an active fire in Kherson, indicating further environmental and infrastructural damage from RF shelling.
Targeting Ukrainian Railway Infrastructure: The reported large-scale attacks on Ukrainian railways represent a new tactical objective, aimed at disrupting UAF logistics and civilian movement across the country. UN Secretary-General Guterres' statement that Russia is trying to create blackouts ahead of winter further confirms the strategic targeting of Ukrainian infrastructure.
Adaptive Drone Warfare & C-UAS: RF continues to develop and deploy new drone technologies (e.g., 'PUGACH' reconnaissance drone) and tactics (targeting UAF drone C2, suspected use of air balloons, FPV drone attacks on RF border regions, new videos showing FPV/loitering munition attacks on Krasnoarmeysk direction, and RF 1st Tank Army targeting UAF drones). Operational use of "Anvar" unit for clearing buffer zones using drones. Development and testing of a "setkomyot" net gun demonstrates adaptive tactical C-UAS development. NEW: Colonelcassad reports "S.P.A.R.T.A. Battalion" destroying a UAF UAV control point in Dmytrivka, indicating continued focus on degrading UAF drone capabilities. MoD Russia claiming a tank crew destroyed a UAF UAV command post indicates adaptive anti-drone tactics with indirect fire. MoD Russia's video compilation of drone strikes explicitly lists "ПУ БПЛА ВСУ" (Ukrainian UAV command post) as a target, reinforcing this adaptive tactic. NEW: Colonelcassad's video showcasing thermobaric FPV drones by the 16th Guards Brigade of RHB Protection indicates a sophisticated and adaptive use of specialized units in drone warfare. NEW: Colonelcassad shares a video showcasing Russian drone operators from the Rubicon center targeting enemy reconnaissance UAVs. This indicates an adaptive and specialized C-UAS capability, directly impacting UAF battlefield intelligence gathering by denying enemy ISR. NEW: ТАСС reports that drones from the 'Dnepr' grouping destroyed a US-made Paladin self-propelled artillery unit in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This is a significant claim of successful RF C-UAS and precision strike capabilities against high-value UAF equipment. The accompanying video describes the FPV drone operator's process of targeting, including using dust trails from artillery fire for identification. NEW: ТАСС shares a video claiming RF drone operators destroyed a tank and two UAF octocopters. This indicates effective RF counter-UAV operations and adaptive tactics. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video about the destruction of enemy communications equipment, demonstrating UAF's continued adaptive targeting of RF C2 elements. NEW: Два майора shares video of an 18th Army FPV drone operator targeting enemy vehicles on roads covered by anti-drone nets, explicitly stating that the nets "did not help." This indicates RF adaptation to UAF defensive measures but also limitations in their C2 to fully counter UAF drone activity. NEW: ТАСС releases a video of the "Severny Veter" drone, which recently underwent trials in the SVO zone, depicting its assembly, launch, and aerial reconnaissance capabilities, including thermal imaging of Ukrainian positions. This indicates RF's continued development and deployment of new drone technology.
Counter-Sabotage Efforts: Demonstrated adaptive internal security response to internal threats (Samara saboteurs, financing UAF, Yekaterinburg detention, high-level anti-corruption probes targeting judges and Alexey Bobrov, Polish detentions of sanctions-evaders, FSB detaining father-son attempting to blow up bridge, prosecution of Maxim Katz, mass arrests at a wedding in Krasnoyarsk, Maria Korzhilova/Shtengelov property forfeiture, Novosibirsk terror attack prevention, Maxym Katz arrested in absentia). Missile strike on Druzhba oil pipeline station in Bryansk Oblast could be a UAF sabotage operation, indicating a need for RF to adapt its critical infrastructure protection. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant halting production due to a UAV attack (likely UAF) will force RF to adapt its critical infrastructure protection and internal security. The management of the Novosibirsk Zoo fire and the implementation of local defense measures like using textbooks for school windows in Belgorod indicate localized, adaptive C2 for civil defense responses. The destruction of a UAF 156th Separate Mechanized Brigade dislocaton point in Sumy Oblast indicates effective RF operational C2 for targeting UAF formations. NEW: TASS reports the "Dnepr" grouping struck a UAF dugout in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating effective operational C2 for artillery support in ground operations. NEW: Colonelcassad's video showcasing thermobaric FPV drones by the 16th Guards Brigade of RHB Protection demonstrates effective operational C2 in deploying specialized units with adaptive tactics. NEW: ТАСС reports Russian Armed Forces are tightening the ring around Kupiansk, citing Russian security forces. This suggests effective operational C2 for directing forces in this offensive. NEW: ТАСС reports Marochko states RF has formed a fire pocket for UAF southeast of Zvanovka in DNR, indicating coordinated operational C2 for attempting encirclement. NEW: ТАСС reports that Kyiv has sent national battalions to Kupiansk in an attempt to hold back the Russian army, citing Marochko. This indicates RF awareness of UAF defensive measures and potential attempts to counter them. NEW: ТАСС reports that assault groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces special company retreated with heavy losses near Synelnykove, Kharkiv Oblast, citing Russian security forces. This suggests effective RF operational C2 in defensive operations. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video about the destruction of enemy communications equipment, demonstrating effective operational C2 for targeting UAF C2 elements. The reported fire at Novosibirsk Zoo and its localization showcase adaptive emergency response capabilities in civilian areas, indicating a functional, albeit strained, internal security apparatus. ASTRA reports a prosecutor's check has been organized for the fire at Novosibirsk Zoo, indicating adaptive investigation and response to civilian incidents. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a fire in Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast, which requires adaptive internal security responses. ASTRA reports Rostov Oblast authorities admit reduced oil product production and export due to UAV attacks, signaling adaptive measures to mitigate economic impact. TASS reports a lawsuit against Alla Pugacheva over her statements about a Chechen separatist leader, indicating adaptive legal/political maneuvers to enforce internal ideological control. Alex Parker Returns reports an ex-official fleeing a St. Petersburg court and hiding in the Armenian consulate, indicating adaptive internal security challenges. ASTRA reports a Moscow court will consider a lawsuit from a "combat veteran" against Alla Pugacheva, indicating continued judicial adaptation to internal political disputes. ASTRA reports UAF struck Taganrog, with video showing a UAV being destroyed during the attack. NEW: Colonelcassad shares video about the detention of a father and son involved in sabotage in Samara Oblast. NEW: ТАСС reports air defense forces are repelling a UAV attack in seven municipalities of Rostov Oblast. A private house caught fire in Sholokhov district. NEW: ТАСС reports the number of citizens' appeals to Putin's reception has significantly decreased after the entry into force of norms prohibiting anonymous electronic complaints, indicating adaptive C2 for managing public feedback. NEW: Полиция Хабаровского края reports on a resident of the Vanino district losing 220 thousand rubles to fraudsters, indicating adaptive internal security efforts against evolving cyber threats to citizens. NEW: TASS reports The Coca-Cola Company may lose trademark rights in Russia by end of October, forcing RF legal and economic systems to adapt to further Western brand withdrawals. NEW: ТАСС reports Samara airport operations are temporarily restricted, demonstrating responsive internal security measures for critical infrastructure. NEW: TASS reports temporary restrictions have been introduced at Sochi and Gelendzhik airports, which will be framed as necessary security measures in response to external threats, indicating an adaptive, widespread security posture for air traffic. NEW: ТАСС reports that a terrorist attack against an official of the regional branch of the Federal Bailiff Service (ФССП) was prevented in Novosibirsk by the FSB. This highlights continued internal security threats and RF counter-terrorism efforts. NEW: ТАСС reports a massive UAV attack was repelled in Volgograd Oblast, and ASTRA confirms that air defense repelled a drone attack on fuel and energy facilities in Volgograd Oblast. This demonstrates RF's ability to defend its territory, reinforcing narratives of strength. NEW: ТАСС reports Wildberries and Ozon are ready to discuss the Ministry of Economic Development's proposal to introduce a non-refundable tariff on a number of goods to protect against consumer abuse, indicating adaptive internal economic policy and state control over marketplaces. NEW: ASTRA reports that the FSB reported preventing a terrorist attack in Novosibirsk against an official of the Federal Bailiff Service. This highlights the ongoing internal security efforts by RF. NEW: ТАСС reports that the Novosibirsk Zoo has resumed operations after the fire. This indicates adaptive and effective civil defense response. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of the FSB detaining a resident of Yekaterinburg on suspicion of financing UAF, indicating continued internal security actions. NEW: TASS reports "Corporation STS" is ready to transfer "Oblkommunenergo" to state ownership if the state insists, indicating direct state pressure on private entities. NEW: ASTRA reports a Moscow court has upheld the absentee arrest of Maxim Katz. NEW: ТАСС reports the RF Ministry of Finance proposes to raise VAT from 20% to 22% for defense and security funding. NEW: Север.Реалии reports an ex-official of Rosreestr fled court in St. Petersburg and was found dead in a toilet in the Armenian consulate, indicating a high-profile internal security incident and potential for further instability within RF. NEW: ТАСС shares video footage of FSB of DNR destroying enemy DRG by "Gorynych" counter-terrorism unit on Dzerzhinsk direction, confirming continued RF counter-DRG operations. NEW: ТАСС reports Samara airport operations have resumed.
New MLRS System: The presentation of the new MLRS "Sarma" by "Мотовилихинские заводы" highlights an adaptive military-industrial complex capable of introducing new weapon systems to the battlefield, potentially increasing RF fire support capabilities. NEW: ТАСС reports the first arctic unmanned boat "Breeze" was shown at the "Neva-2025" exhibition. This indicates RF development of advanced unmanned maritime systems with potential military applications, including reconnaissance, surveillance, or even payload delivery. NEW: ТАСС reports Russian operators of unmanned aerial vehicles in the area of the special military operation destroyed a tank and two octocopters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, citing the Ministry of Defense. This demonstrates ongoing RF military production and deployment of advanced drone systems. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares photo messages of new military equipment, labeled "НОВИНКА!", which likely indicates new production or upgrades of military hardware, boosting RF capabilities. NEW: ТАСС releases a video of the "Severny Veter" drone, which recently underwent trials in the SVO zone, depicting its assembly, launch, and aerial reconnaissance capabilities, including thermal imaging of Ukrainian positions. This indicates RF's continued development and deployment of new drone technology. NEW: Басурин о главном shares a video of new Su-35S fighter jets being delivered to the Russian army after ground and flight factory tests. This indicates continued RF military industrial production and capability upgrades. NEW: Colonelcassad shares a video of Rostec testing a lightweight version of the "Obereg" assault body armor, indicating continued development in troop protection.
Strategic Messaging Adaptation: Putin's mixed signals on INF (deployment vs. extension of arms limits) indicate a nuanced adaptation in strategic communication to deter NATO while managing international perceptions. TASS report on Rutte's "no immediate threat" statement and Rutte's current statement on real-time threat assessment is part of this nuanced messaging. TASS report on Marco Rubio's statement is used to highlight perceived US/European divisions on sanctions. RF IO adapts to new diplomatic events like Zelenskyy's UN GA attendance (to counter UAF narratives) and Macron's activities (to undermine Western leaders). WarGonzo's immediate reporting on Polish threats at the UN Security Council shows rapid IO response to international diplomatic events. Rapid adaptation of IO narratives to leverage UN General Assembly statements by Lula da Silva and Trump to promote its agenda, including claims about "main sponsors" of the war. The ridiculing of the Polish President at the UN is an adaptation of IO tactics to discredit opponents. Amplification of Trump's criticisms of the UN, NATO, and other Western nations indicates a highly adaptive and opportunistic IO C2. RF IO's rapid adoption and amplification of Trump's climate change skepticism and anti-migrant rhetoric demonstrates highly adaptive and opportunistic C2 in the information domain. TASS reporting Marochko's claims on Moldova and Басурин о главном's negative framing of Zelenskyy's fundraising demonstrate coordinated IO to influence regional and international perceptions. TASS report on Moldovan ballot issues will be leveraged to promote narratives of political instability. Старше Эдды's question on New START reception indicates continued international focus on nuclear arms control. Kadyrov_95 using Trump's UN GA speech demonstrates coordinated IO. TASS reporting being the only Russian media for Trump-Gutterish talks highlights IO C2. ASTRA reports Trump called climate change the "greatest scam ever," which RF IO will leverage. Operatyvny ZSU reports Rubio's statement on NATO not shooting down non-aggressive aircraft will be leveraged by RF to portray NATO as weak or divided. TASS reports Trump mentioned Russia 10 times in his UN GA speech, which RF IO will use to emphasize their global importance. TASS reports Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei stated Iran does not need nuclear weapons, aligning with RF narrative of responsible non-proliferation. TASS framing Canada's attempt to seize an An-124 as "robbery" is an IO tactic to portray Western actions as illegal and aggressive. Fighterbomber's "Красивое от подписчика" posts serve as morale-boosting IO. Trump's recent statements about NATO countries shooting down Russian aircraft will be seized upon by RF IO to portray NATO as aggressive and reckless, while also testing NATO's internal cohesion. Рыбарь's post on French presence in Cimislia, Moldova, is a new IO push to frame Western intervention in the region. Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны reports Trump's "strange answer" on supporting Putin, which RF IO will exploit to sow confusion and question US resolve. Басурин о главном shares a video of a Ukrainian soldier evading artillery fire, which RF IO will use to highlight UAF losses and difficult battlefield conditions. Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны shares Trump's comments on NATO contributions, likely to highlight perceived Western disunity. Военкор Котенок shares a video of Trump discussing NATO contributions, serving as RF IO to highlight internal Western disagreements. Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны reports Trump's statement that the war in Ukraine may not end soon, echoing RF narratives. Kotsnews uses a video contrasting Rubio and Trump on shooting down RF planes, aimed at highlighting conflicting US messaging. ASTRA reports Rostov Oblast authorities admit reduced oil product production and export due to UAV attacks, likely prompting RF IO to minimize impact. TASS reports Ursula von der Leyen's statement that the EU will abandon Russian energy by 2027, which RF will frame as Western economic self-harm. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Denmark suspects Russian-crewed civilian vessels of organizing drone launches over Copenhagen Airport, which RF will deny and use to highlight Western "Russophobia." TASS reports Nebenzya's statements on Palestinian sovereignty, used to criticize US foreign policy and garner support from the Global South. Colonelcassad reports NATO weapons from Ukraine with Spanish drug cartels, used to delegitimize Western military aid and support narratives of Western complicity in crime. STERNENKO shares Trump's statements about Ukraine winning, which RF IO will immediately counter as unrealistic or Western propaganda, while highlighting that US weapons will not be free. TASS reports Trump stated that American weapon supplies to Ukraine will continue. РБК-Україна reports Trump stated that Ukraine will be able to return its country to its original form and potentially achieve more. Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны also reports Trump's statement that Ukraine, with EU support, is capable of fighting and WINNING, returning all of Ukraine to its original form. Alex Parker Returns reports Trump believes Ukraine, with EU help, can regain all its territory and even advance into Russian territory, directly boosting UAF morale and confidence. Alex Parker Returns and Оперативний ЗСУ also report Trump's statement that Russia has been fighting a meaningless war for three and a half years, which a real military power could win in less than a week. Alex Parker Returns reports Zelenskyy called Trump a "military dictator," which is RF IO to delegitimize Zelenskyy. Старше Эдды mocks Trump's statements about Putin and his relations with Russia, implying his statements are based on unreliable sources and will be used to ridicule Trump's perceived geopolitical understanding. Kotsnews mocks Trump's statements, stating "a month of potency" in a sarcastic manner, indicating continued RF IO against Trump's perceived capabilities or consistency. Военкор Котенок (RF source) shares a photo message with a caption arguing that the collective West is aiming to liquidate Russia's current system of power and collapse its economy. Два майора (RF source) reports on the Trump and Zelenskyy meeting, concluding that "there will be no peace." NEW: ТАСС reports Trump preserves the possibility of tightening sanctions against RF and supplying weapons to Ukraine, according to Rubio, used by RF to frame Trump as potentially hostile to RF. NEW: Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны amplifies Zelenskyy's statement about Putin not waiting for the end of the war and seeking weaknesses in Europe/NATO, to portray Russia as an aggressive actor, justifying its own defensive actions. NEW: Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video of Zelenskyy speaking at the UN, with "Ukraine can win all of country back, Trump says" overlay, used by RF to dismiss UAF territorial claims as unrealistic. NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares Trump's statement that his relations with Putin meant nothing for conflict resolution, used to emphasize the failure of diplomatic efforts and justify continued conflict. NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares Zelenskyy's statement on his meeting with Trump, likely to project a positive outcome for Ukraine. NEW: Рыбарь shares photo messages with the caption "Аэростаты на службе ВСУ" (Aerostats in service of the AFU), used to identify UAF adaptive tactics and potentially criticize RF air defense. NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares Trump's statement that the war will not end soon, aligning with grim realities and preparing for prolonged conflict. NEW: ТАСС shares Russian Permanent Representative to the UN Polyansky's statement blaming Kyiv for ignoring international humanitarian law, used to deflect blame from RF actions. NEW: НгП раZVедка shares a derogatory statement about Kharkiv citizens, likely in response to power outages there, reflecting IO to dehumanize Ukrainians. NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy explains how he convinced Trump not to believe Putin's "fairytales" about the battlefield situation, which RF IO will likely attempt to dismiss or counter. NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy's statement that Trump now believes in Ukraine's ability to regain all its territory and views Trump as a "game-changer," which RF IO will immediately dispute. NEW: РБК-Україна shares video of Zelenskyy speaking on why Putin is absent from the UN Security Council meeting, which RF IO will likely attempt to counter. NEW: ТАСС reports Marco Rubio states the war in Ukraine will end through diplomacy, which RF IO will amplify to push for negotiations on their terms. NEW: ТАСС reports European sponsors of Kyiv want the UN Security Council to live in a parallel reality and not see that Ukraine is losing on the battlefield and Zelenskyy has lost popular support, according to Dmitry Polyansky, Russian Permanent Representative to the UN. NEW: ТАСС reports that the EU and NATO are "deeply entangled" in the anti-Russian Ukrainian project, stated Dmitry Polyansky. NEW: Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны shares video and photo messages claiming a massive attack on Kharkiv, resulting in powerful fires and power outages. NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy stating on Fox News that Trump understands "we cannot just exchange territories." NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy stating on Fox News that Trump can change Xi Jinping's attitude toward the war, and that "we don't feel that China wants to end this war." NEW: ТАСС reports Pentagon head Pete Hegseth stated he would monitor the situation with fighters in Estonia, noting any violation of NATO airspace is unacceptable. NEW: ТАСС reports Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin stated to "Izvestia" that the "war party in the EU" is trying to disrupt dialogue between the US and Russia by accusing Russia of provocations over alleged NATO airspace violations. NEW: ТАСС reports Trump's statements on Ukraine should not be seen as a change in American position. NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy states Ukraine and other countries proposed negotiations with Russia at the leadership level, even in Kazakhstan. NEW: ТАСС reports an incident at the UN, where an escalator with Trump on it stopped due to a security mechanism activated by a US delegation videographer, which RF IO will exploit to delegitimize US security operations. NEW: TASS reports Crimean head Sergey Aksyonov stated that Kyiv is trying to damage Crimea's economy by striking the peninsula, which is a direct IO attempt to justify RF defensive actions and portray UAF as an economic aggressor. NEW: Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны (RF source) reports on a veteran explaining his refusal of a deputy mandate in Voronezh, which RF IO will frame as a narrative of loyalty and continued military service, highlighting personal sacrifice and dedication, bolstering morale. NEW: Colonelcassad shares an interview with a captured Russian soldier, which will be used to portray UAF mistreatment of POWs and demoralize UAF forces. NEW: TASS reports Melania Trump rejected requests from Ukraine's First Lady Olena Zelenska for a meeting, which RF IO will leverage to highlight lack of Western support or to diminish Ukraine's diplomatic standing. NEW: TASS reports Maria Zakharova claimed a video of Kazakh President Tokayev at UNGA was a "crude fake," which will be used to discredit any positive diplomatic outcomes for Ukraine. NEW: ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova commented on the Polish leader's actions at the UNGA, framing it negatively, as "Westerners inhaling the air of freedom." This is a direct attempt at character assassination and undermining Western leadership through disinformation. NEW: Colonelcassad shares photo messages (18+) of a deceased UAF soldier, indicating RF efforts to highlight UAF casualties and demoralize UAF forces. NEW: TASS shares a video of Georgy Muradov, Permanent Representative of Crimea to the President of Russia, using the UNGA platform to project strategic deterrence and shape international perceptions, framing Russia as a nuclear power that the US must negotiate with to avoid a third world war. This is a clear adaptive IO tactic to exploit geopolitical anxieties. NEW: Colonelcassad posts a video of a captured UAF serviceman recounting being tied to a tree and beaten by his commander, "Babai," for desertion. This narrative is intended to discredit UAF leadership and potentially demoralize UAF troops. NEW: ТАСС shares a video of popular musician Kasper giving his first interview for TASS on his performance before soldiers, aiming to boost morale among RF forces through cultural propaganda. NEW: ТАСС reports that figure skater Mark Kondratyuk has been added to the database of the Ukrainian extremist website "Mirotvorets," according to the resource's data. This is used by RF to frame UAF as "extremist" and to highlight perceived injustices against Russian citizens. NEW: ТАСС reports that Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel, sent to front-line positions by deception, died in Kharkiv Oblast. This is an RF claim of successful defensive action and UAF losses due to deceptive practices. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares videos of Zelenskyy's interview on Fox News, which RF will attempt to counter. NEW: WarGonzo reports on the Ukrainian Rada's intention to limit journalist work, which will be framed as suppression of free speech and evidence of totalitarianism. NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares White House photos of the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting with the caption "He is a brave man, and he puts up a fierce fight," indicating a positive framing by US sources, which RF IO will likely attempt to counter. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Polish President Navrotsky states Russian aggression is purely ideological. NEW: STERNENKO shares a video of a pro-Russian figure being indignant about a "forced pause" on Khreshchatyk for a minute of silence, framing it as a "cemetery." This indicates RF IO's efforts to exploit internal Ukrainian dissent and discredit UAF national symbols. NEW: Два майора states the Ministry of Finance proposes these changes (increasing VAT) to primarily finance defense and security, which is a key domestic IO narrative to justify economic changes. NEW: Новости Москвы reports a new Orthodox messenger "Zosima" has been launched in Russia, indicating state-supported efforts to create alternative communication platforms with an ideological bent, serving an IO purpose. NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports public outrage over Maxim Divnich, a supporter, being criticized, indicating efforts to manage internal narratives around public figures. NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА shares photo messages labeled "Магуры добрались до Португалии" which is a propaganda piece trying to extend UAF USV reach to NATO territory to justify RF aggression.
- Consolidate and Expand Territorial Control: Achieve incremental gains on key axes to solidify occupied positions and establish more defensible lines. To inflict maximum attrition on UAF manpower (5th Army artillery strike, heavy casualties reported by RF soldier, Trump's reported casualty figures). To extract economic value from occupied territories as stated by Vodolatsky.
- Maintain Domestic Stability: Project an image of strength, resilience, and effective governance to the Russian population, counteracting UAF deep strikes and internal dissent. Veteran status for volunteers, and anti-corruption probes, serve this purpose. Domestic social initiatives (mortgage holidays, student housing, IVF pensions, tax notifications, dog ownership legislation, domestic toy advertising, tax deductions for sports) aim to project care for the population and a functioning state. To portray stability and control in occupied territories, while simultaneously framing any internal incidents as isolated or linked to Ukrainian influence (Mariupol bus incident, Stakhanov double homicide). Using old textbooks to protect schools in Belgorod aims to project state care despite external threats. The swift release of the mother after the picket might be framed as a humane, just response by a strong state. The mass arrests at a Krasnoyarsk wedding, even if framed as a "Friendship of Peoples" event gone wrong, will be used to demonstrate robust internal security and control over migrant populations. TASS report on court decisions like Mitvol's denied early release and denying boarding to a family reinforce an image of a functional, orderly legal system. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА's video from the State Duma on utility providers aims to project a caring state that fights corruption. Kotsnews video on a veteran giving up his mandate will be used to promote narratives of patriotism and service within the Russian military and political system. ТАСС's report on increased advertising for domestic toys to counter "alien Western values" demonstrates pervasive state-controlled IO to shape national identity, particularly for youth. Народная милиция ДНР's humanitarian aid delivery video supports narratives of RF care for wounded. AV БогомаZ's meeting with RF Minister of Construction and Housing emphasizes state commitment to reconstruction. TASS reports MVD is not proposing additional burdens on right-hand drive cars will be presented as responsive and caring governance. "Два майора" sharing kitten videos serves as a soft-power tactic to humanize soldiers and project a caring image. Kadyrov's meeting with Pushilin will be used to project unity and stability in occupied regions. Alex Parker Returns highlights incoming migrants to fill labor shortages, likely to project economic stability and growth. "Новости Москвы" reporting on heating NEW: ТАСС reports that the SCO is considering membership applications or status changes from 19 countries, which RF will use to project growing international influence and counter Western efforts to isolate it. NEW: ТАСС reports the number of citizens' appeals to Putin's reception has significantly decreased after the entry into force of norms prohibiting anonymous electronic complaints, used to demonstrate effective governance and control over public dissatisfaction. NEW: ТАСС reports the LDPR proposal not to allocate shares to foreigners in housing purchased with maternity capital, framed as a measure to protect national interests and social welfare. NEW: TASS reports Italian actress Claudia Cardinale died at 87, for general public interest. NEW: TASS reports a Steam outage in Russia, for general public interest. NEW: TASS reports a proposal to introduce voluntary OSAGO for couriers using personal mobility devices, indicating a capacity for new social policies. NEW: ТАСС reports the average nominal salary in RF was 103.2 thousand rubles in June and is expected to grow by 3-4% by year-end, which will be used to project economic stability. NEW: TASS reports that Russians do not have enough time to take their 28 days of annual leave, which is domestic IO to show a thriving economy with high employment. NEW: TASS reports the Ministry of Education supports an initiative to allow ninth-graders who fail state exams to pursue vocational training, which is domestic IO to show government support for education and workforce development. NEW: TASS reports two people were injured by shrapnel after a UAV attack in Rostov Oblast. NEW: TASS reports that seven out of ten Russians swear regularly, with one third swearing daily, with one third swearing daily, according to a VCIOM poll, which is domestic IO aimed at social trends. NEW: Полиция Хабаровского края reports on a resident of the Vanino district losing 220 thousand rubles to fraudsters, indicating sustained internal security challenges from cybercrime, further diverting internal resources. NEW: TASS reports The Coca-Cola Company may lose trademark rights in Russia by end of October. This will be framed internally as a successful adaptation to Western sanctions and a move towards self-sufficiency. NEW: TASS reports the "SRZP" party insists on introducing free hot meals for all schoolchildren from 2026. This is a clear attempt to project government care and maintain social stability. NEW: ТАСС reports for residents damaged by a gas explosion in Tolyatti, temporary accommodation centers have been prepared, demonstrating a functional civil defense response to internal incidents and projecting state care. NEW: ТАСС reports Samara airport operations are temporarily restricted. NEW: TASS reports temporary restrictions have been introduced at Sochi and Gelendzhik airports, which will be presented as necessary security measures in response to external threats. NEW: ТАСС reports that 59% of bloggers have moved to Telegram, demonstrating RF's capability to adapt to changing information landscapes and potentially leverage platforms like Telegram for enhanced information control and domestic stability. NEW: ТАСС reports that a terrorist attack against an official of the regional branch of the Federal Bailiff Service (ФССП) was prevented in Novosibirsk by the FSB. This highlights continued internal security threats and RF counter-terrorism efforts. NEW: ТАСС reports a massive UAV attack was repelled in Volgograd Oblast, and ASTRA confirms that air defense repelled a drone attack on fuel and energy facilities in Volgograd Oblast. This demonstrates RF's ability to defend its territory, reinforcing narratives of strength. NEW: ТАСС reports Wildberries and Ozon are ready to discuss the Ministry of Economic Development's proposal to introduce a non-refundable tariff on a number of goods to protect against consumer abuse, indicating adaptive internal economic policy and state control over marketplaces. NEW: ASTRA reports that the FSB reported preventing a terrorist attack in Novosibirsk against an official of the Federal Bailiff Service. This highlights the ongoing internal security efforts by RF. NEW: ТАСС reports that the Novosibirsk Zoo has resumed operations after the fire. This indicates successful management of a civilian incident. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of the FSB detaining a resident of Yekaterinburg on suspicion of financing UAF, indicating continued internal security actions. NEW: TASS reports "Corporation STS" is ready to transfer "Oblkommunenergo" to state ownership if the state insists, indicating direct state pressure on private entities. NEW: ASTRA reports a Moscow court has upheld the absentee arrest of Maxim Katz. NEW: ТАСС reports the RF Ministry of Finance proposes to raise VAT from 20% to 22% for defense and security funding. NEW: Север.Реалии reports an ex-official of Rosreestr fled court in St. Petersburg and was found dead in a toilet in the Armenian consulate, indicating a high-profile internal security incident and potential for further instability. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 announces the autumn conscription drive, with electronic summonses, demonstrating intent to maintain manpower. NEW: Новости Москвы reports the Russian Ministry of Finance has submitted amendments to the tax code, including increasing VAT from 20% to 22%, to the government. This is a significant economic policy shift. NEW: Два майора states the Ministry of Finance proposes these changes (increasing VAT) to primarily finance defense and security. NEW: Новости Москвы reports a new Orthodox messenger "Zosima" has been launched in Russia, indicating state-supported efforts to create alternative communication platforms with an ideological bent. NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports public outrage over Maxim Divnich, a supporter, being criticized, indicating efforts to manage internal narratives around public figures. NEW: ТАСС reports Samara airport operations have resumed. NEW: Mash na Donbasse shares video of police rescuing a woman from a burning apartment in Kurakhovo, framing it as a humanitarian effort in "recently liberated" territory.
- Courses of Action (COAs):
1. Sustained and Intensified Multi-Domain Pressure with Mass Aerial Attacks (A2/AD Focus): RF will continue large-scale, adaptive UAV and guided bomb strikes targeting critical infrastructure (energy, railways, defense industry) across Ukraine, particularly Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. The use of varied UAV types and tactics (e.g., air balloons, reactive Shaheds) will persist to overwhelm and probe UAF air defenses. Expect continued attempts to target UAF C2 and ISR assets with FPV drones and precision munitions. Expect continued drone and artillery strikes on Nikopol and Kherson. This also includes intensified attacks on Kyiv and Northeast Kharkiv (e.g., the destruction of the Ivanivka power substation). RF will also continue to attribute attacks on the ZNPP power line to UAF in their information operations.
2. Increased Ground Pressure on Key Axes and Exploitation of UAF Tactical Shifts (e.g., Kupiansk, Lyman-Siversk, Zvanovka, Volchansk, Ivanivka, Dmytrivka targeting UAV C2, Konstantinovka, and Slaviansk direction). (Confidence: HIGH) The RF source "Zvиздец Мангусту" explicitly outlines RF's intent to maintain offensive momentum in Kupiansk to prevent UAF from regrouping. The reported surrender of UAF soldiers in Kupiansk (TASS video) could be leveraged to intensify pressure in this area.
3. Amplified Hybrid Warfare with Focus on Strategic Deterrence, Ideological Attacks, and Western Disunity, specifically leveraging UN General Assembly statements and events, EU energy policy shifts, perceived US diplomatic rejection of Ukraine's First Lady, and narratives around alleged UAF USV threats to NATO territory and claims of UAF human rights abuses. (Confidence: HIGH)
4. Deepening Strategic Partnerships, Military Modernization, and Addressing Labor Shortages, while maintaining strict internal security and ideological control, extracting economic value from occupied territories, and adapting to the loss of Western brand trademarks. (Confidence: HIGH)
5. Realigning Domestic Economic Policy for War Sustenance: (Confidence: HIGH) RF will continue to introduce fiscal measures (e.g., increased VAT, changes to simplified taxation, new taxes on bookmakers) and social programs (e.g., extended maternity capital) aimed at financing the war effort and maintaining internal social stability amidst economic pressures and rising defense spending.
6. Intensified Mobilization and Conscription: (Confidence: HIGH) The autumn conscription drive with electronic summonses indicates a clear intent to replenish manpower, potentially ahead of a winter campaign.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status (Confidence: MEDIUM)

Fuel Supply: ASTRA reports a disappearance of A-95 gasoline in Sakhalin, potentially indicating regional fuel shortages. The Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant halted gasoline/diesel production due to a UAV attack on September 22. RBC-Україна reports RF diesel exports fell to a 5-year low due to drone strikes on refineries. ASTRA reports Rostov Oblast authorities admit reduced oil product production and export due to UAV attacks. These indicate significant and sustained disruption to RF fuel production and export, likely impacting military and civilian supply chains. NEW: Два майора queries about the state of oil refineries and gasoline at gas stations, indicating ongoing concern about fuel supply issues within RF. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports a fire at the Zenzevatka oil pumping station in Volgograd Oblast, Russia, based on media reports, confirming ongoing disruption to RF fuel infrastructure. NEW: ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, and STERNENKO all report on a significant fire at the Salavat petrochemical complex in Bashkiria, attributed to drone attacks, confirming further disruption to RF fuel production. NEW: Два майора shares video of Ukrainian UAVs attacking the Salavat oil refinery.
Materiel & Equipment: RF continues to rely on improvised logistics, as evidenced by civilian vehicles (Ladas, UAZ vans) being prepared for military use in a "4th auto-column." Persistent unit-level fundraising appeals (e.g., "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" collecting <10k rubles for drones, "Два майора" for assault troops on Slaviansk direction) suggest that central supply chains are insufficient for all materiel needs, especially for tactical drones. The presentation of the new MLRS "Sarma" indicates some ongoing military industrial production and upgrades, but the scale of its deployment and impact remains unclear. The reappearance of Western brands in Russia under the 'TEBOE' umbrella suggests successful parallel import or rebranding efforts, indicating a degree of adaptability in circumventing sanctions for consumer goods, which could potentially extend to dual-use components. Colonelcassad reports Iran is acquiring advanced fighter jets and air defense systems from Russia and China, signaling strategic military-industrial cooperation that could indirectly support RF through burden-sharing or access to new technologies/doctrines. NEW: TASS reports The Coca-Cola Company may lose trademark rights in Russia by end of October, indicating a forced adaptation in consumer goods supply, which reflects the broader impact of sanctions. NEW: Воин DV reports that the US and Japan have signed an agreement on AI development for unmanned aviation needs. While a Western development, it suggests the future trajectory of drone warfare and the need for RF to adapt its own technological development and procurement. NEW: ТАСС reports the first arctic unmanned boat "Breeze" was shown at the "Neva-2025" exhibition. This indicates RF development of advanced unmanned maritime systems, which could have military applications. NEW: ТАСС reports Russian operators of unmanned aerial vehicles in the area of the special military operation destroyed a tank and two octocopters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, citing the Ministry of Defense. This demonstrates ongoing RF military production and deployment of advanced drone systems, challenging the notion of severe materiel shortages. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares photo messages of new military equipment, labeled "НОВИНКА!", which likely indicates new production or upgrades of military hardware, which will boost RF capabilities. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video about the destruction of enemy communications equipment, indicating a need for RF to replace or harden these assets. NEW: ТАСС releases a video of the "Severny Veter" drone, which recently underwent trials in the SVO zone, depicting its assembly, launch, and aerial reconnaissance capabilities, including thermal imaging of Ukrainian positions. This indicates RF's continued development and deployment of new drone technology. NEW: Басурин о главном shares a video of new Su-35S fighter jets being delivered to the Russian army after ground and flight factory tests, directly impacting RF air materiel. NEW: Colonelcassad shares a video of Rostec testing a lightweight version of the "Obereg" assault body armor, indicating continued investment in soldier protection equipment.
Personnel: Severe manpower shortages and high attrition rates persist, as confirmed by graphic videos from БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, the RF soldier's report of only a company remaining from a 700-man battalion, and a BMP mechanic-driver's pessimism after being the sole survivor of his previous crew. Reports of "command driving soldiers to suicide" highlight critical morale issues. RF is attempting to address this through recruitment of foreign nationals (Indian student) and the adoption of a new bill granting veteran status to volunteers. Alex Parker Returns reports hundreds of thousands of migrants are expected to arrive in Russia soon due to labor shortages, which could indirectly bolster the war economy's sustainment capacity. NEW: TASS reports that Russians do not have enough time to take their 28 days of annual leave, which may further exacerbate manpower shortages or impact morale. NEW: Colonelcassad shares an interview with a captured Russian soldier. NEW: Colonelcassad shares photo messages (18+) of a deceased UAF soldier, indicating RF efforts to highlight UAF casualties and potentially demoralize UAF personnel. NEW: Colonelcassad posts a video of a captured UAF serviceman recounting being tied to a tree and beaten by his commander, "Babai," for desertion. This narrative, if widely disseminated, could impact UAF morale and recruitment. NEW: ТАСС shares a video of popular musician Kasper giving his first interview for TASS on his performance before soldiers, aiming to boost morale among RF forces through cultural propaganda. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of a soldier in camouflage uniform carrying another soldier, who appears to be wounded or incapacitated, on his back. This indicates RF continues to suffer casualties and require medical evacuation, even at the tactical level. NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 970 Russian occupiers were eliminated in the last day, indicating continued significant personnel losses for RF. NEW: Colonelcassad shares a video showcasing a Russian soldier, "Sava," from Krasnoyarsk, recounting his combat experience, including being injured by FPV drones and gas, successfully repelling an assault, and receiving the Order of Courage. This morale-boosting narrative for domestic audience shows efforts to counter morale issues. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a fundraising appeal for a paratrooper. NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares a video of a former prisoner not receiving payments for a combat injury, directly impacting morale and potentially recruitment from penal colonies. NEW: Военкор Котенок shares a video claiming manipulations with a "Volga" fighter's severe injury, recorded as a domestic trauma. This indicates institutional issues with injury reporting and support for RF personnel, potentially further undermining morale. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a distressed man in military attire stating his group has left him and he needs help. This further highlights RF personnel issues.
Supply Routes: UAF heavy drone mining continues to disrupt RF supply routes, forcing reliance on alternative or more circuitous paths, leading to increased wear and tear on vehicles and greater exposure to attacks. The strike on the Druzhba oil pipeline station, if confirmed as a UAF action, indicates a vulnerability in energy transit infrastructure. NEW: Два майора shares video of an 18th Army FPV drone operator targeting enemy vehicles on roads covered by anti-drone nets, explicitly stating that the nets "did not help." This highlights ongoing UAF efforts to interdict RF supply routes and RF attempts to mitigate these attacks.
Internal Security: Counter-sabotage efforts (FSB detentions in Samara, Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk terror attack prevention) indicate an ongoing internal security challenge that diverts resources and attention from front-line operations. The detention of Polish citizens for selling ~600 cars to Belarus and Russia suggests persistent efforts to circumvent sanctions, implying a continuous need for components that is not fully met by domestic production or sanctioned imports. The high-level corruption probes further destabilize internal economic and governance structures. NEW: Полиция Хабаровского края reports on a resident of the Vanino district losing 220 thousand rubles to fraudsters, indicating sustained internal security challenges from cybercrime, diverting resources. NEW: Север.Реалии reports an ex-official of Rosreestr found dead in the Armenian consulate after fleeing court, indicating a high-profile internal security incident and potential for further instability.
Infrastructure (Occupied Territories): Colonelcassad presents a project for the restoration and reconstruction of Luhansk Airport, indicating long-term investment in occupied territories, but also potential logistical improvements for RF.
Economic Potential of Occupied Territories: NEW: TASS reports Viktor Vodolatsky, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee for CIS Affairs, Eurasian Integration, and Relations with Compatriots, states that regions reunited with the Russian Federation will repay investments, contributing at least 10% to GDP. This indicates a clear RF strategy to leverage these regions economically for sustainment.
Overall: RF logistics and sustainment remain strained but adaptive. Critical shortages in fuel and manpower are evident, necessitating reliance on foreign recruitment, civilian vehicle repurposing, and parallel imports. Despite these challenges, RF continues to produce new military equipment and maintain strategic partnerships. The sustained UAF deep strike campaign against RF energy and military-industrial facilities is having a demonstrable effect on RF's ability to produce and transport critical supplies. The economic integration of occupied territories is a long-term sustainment strategy. The impending loss of trademark rights for major Western brands like Coca-Cola indicates a further shift towards self-sufficiency or alternative sourcing in the consumer sector, which could indirectly impact the overall economic resilience to sustain the war effort. The SRZP party's proposal for free hot meals in schools demonstrates an intent to invest in social welfare, possibly as a measure to mitigate the long-term strain of the conflict on the civilian population. The widespread air traffic restrictions across RF airports (Sochi, Gelendzhik, Volgograd, Samara, Orenburg, Ufa) indicate that the threat of UAF deep strikes is forcing RF to implement significant, resource-intensive security measures that could impact internal logistics and civilian travel. The new focus on drone-delivery postamats suggests a longer-term effort to innovate civilian logistics, which could have military applications. The development of an arctic unmanned boat suggests a long-term investment in advanced maritime capabilities. RF internal economic policy aimed at consumer protection also reflects a broader effort to maintain domestic stability and sustainment capacity. The internal discussion about fuel supply indicates direct pressure on RF energy logistics. The daily reported RF casualties by UAF General Staff indicate a continuous and significant drain on RF manpower resources. NEW: ТАСС reports the RF Ministry of Finance's proposed budget adjustments indicate a clear shift towards war-time economy, prioritizing defense spending and social support for military personnel and their families. This will impact overall economic sustainment. NEW: The autumn conscription drive with electronic summonses aims to mitigate personnel shortages, but its effectiveness will be tested.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness (Confidence: MEDIUM)

Strategic C2: Centralized and largely effective in shaping strategic direction (e.g., Putin's meetings with Shoigu and Pasechnik, announcements on INF, response to NATO airspace violations). Putin's direct involvement in high-level meetings signals strong centralized control over key operational decisions and occupied territories. The implementation of new social policies and internal security measures, such as the proposed OSAGO for couriers, new social benefits, and changes to complaint procedures, indicates a functional top-down administrative C2 structure. The MVD's temporary blocking of messenger accounts for rented numbers, and high-level anti-corruption probes (Momotov, Bobrov), demonstrate robust C2 over internal security and governance. NEW: TASS reports the Ministry of Education supports an initiative to allow ninth-graders who fail state exams to pursue vocational training, indicating strategic C2 over social policy related to education. NEW: TASS reports Vodolatsky's statements on economic integration of occupied territories indicate centralized C2 for economic policy. NEW: TASS reports Lavrov's arrival at the UN GA indicates sustained strategic C2 for diplomatic engagement at the highest levels. NEW: TASS confirming the Rubio-Lavrov meeting demonstrates high-level, centralized C2 for diplomatic initiatives, enabling direct engagement with adversaries. NEW: G7 Foreign Ministers discussed new sanctions against Russia, indicating a response to RF's strategic C2 and actions, further demonstrating the interaction in this domain. NEW: TASS reports Maria Zakharova claimed a video of Kazakh President Tokayev at UNGA was a "crude fake," which demonstrates proactive RF strategic C2 in information control. NEW: ТАСС reports Lavrov arrived in New York for the 80th UN General Assembly. NEW: ТАСС publishes footage of Lavrov arriving in New York, reinforcing his presence at the UNGA. NEW: РБК-Україна shares photo of Rubio's meeting schedule, confirming the Lavrov meeting. NEW: РБК-Україна shares video of a Russian Il-96 aircraft, likely related to diplomatic travel of a high-ranking official like Lavrov. NEW: TASS shares a video of Georgy Muradov, Permanent Representative of Crimea to the President of Russia, discussing the need for a deal with RF to avoid World War III and asserting Russia's nuclear status, demonstrating strategic C2 for projecting deterrence and shaping geopolitical narratives at the highest levels. NEW: ТАСС reports that a terrorist attack against an official of the regional branch of the Federal Bailiff Service (ФССП) was prevented in Novosibirsk by the FSB. This highlights continued internal security threats and RF counter-terrorism efforts, demonstrating effective strategic C2 to counter internal threats. NEW: ТАСС reports Wildberries and Ozon are ready to discuss the Ministry of Economic Development's proposal to introduce a non-refundable tariff on a number of goods to protect against consumer abuse, indicating adaptive internal economic policy and state control over marketplaces. NEW: TASS reports "Corporation STS" is ready to transfer "Oblkommunenergo" to state ownership if the state insists, indicating direct state pressure on private entities. NEW: Басурин о главном shares a photo of Lavrov arriving in New York to show Russia's determination to remain a key global player. NEW: ТАСС reports the RF Ministry of Finance's proposed budget amendments indicate strong strategic C2 in re-prioritizing national resources for the war effort and domestic stability. NEW: Новости Москвы reports the Russian Ministry of Finance has submitted amendments to the tax code, including increasing VAT from 20% to 22%, to the government. This indicates strong strategic C2 in economic policy. NEW: Два майора states the Ministry of Finance proposes these changes (increasing VAT) to primarily finance defense and security, indicating strategic C2 over fiscal policy for war sustenance. NEW: Новости Москвы reports a new Orthodox messenger "Zosima" has been launched in Russia, indicating strategic C2 in information environment and ideological control. NEW: ТАСС shares Maria Zakharova's comment about anticipating trouble in Moldova if the people cannot repel Sandu's ideas of "Romanianization," demonstrating strategic C2 in projecting influence in neighboring regions. NEW: ТАСС reports Peskov denied Trump's assertion that Russia is a "paper tiger," stating Russia is a bear and "paper bears" do not exist, indicating strategic C2 in maintaining a strong national image in international discourse. NEW: ТАСС reports a phone conversation between Putin and Trump is not yet scheduled but can be quickly organized, signaling potential for high-level diplomatic engagement via strategic C2. NEW: ТАСС reports Putin remains ready to meet with Zelenskyy, but without preparation, it would be a "PR event doomed to failure," as emphasized by Peskov, indicating strategic C2 control over diplomatic optics.
Operational C2: Mixed effectiveness. RF demonstrates coordinated multi-axis pressure, indicating a degree of operational coherence. However, persistent and graphic reports from RF soldiers lamenting "incompetent command" leading to high casualties and even "suicide" (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники) highlight significant failures in operational C2 at the brigade/battalion level. The deployment of the "Anvar" unit for clearing buffer zones suggests some adaptive tactical C2. The claimed "partial encirclement" of Kupiansk and "fire control" of the Krasny Lyman-Siversk highway, if verified, would indicate effective operational C2 in those areas. The reported halt of production at the Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant due to a UAV attack indicates a failure in C2 regarding critical infrastructure protection. The management of the Novosibirsk Zoo fire and the implementation of local defense measures like using textbooks for school windows in Belgorod indicate localized, adaptive C2 for civil defense responses. The destruction of a UAF 156th Separate Mechanized Brigade dislocaton point in Sumy Oblast indicates effective RF operational C2 for targeting UAF formations. NEW: TASS reports the "Dnepr" grouping struck a UAF dugout in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating effective operational C2 for artillery support in ground operations. NEW: Colonelcassad's video showcasing thermobaric FPV drones by the 16th Guards Brigade of RHB Protection demonstrates effective operational C2 in deploying specialized units with adaptive tactics. NEW: ТАСС reports Russian Armed Forces are tightening the ring around Kupiansk, citing Russian security forces. This suggests effective operational C2 for directing forces in this offensive. NEW: ТАСС reports Marochko states RF has formed a fire pocket for UAF southeast of Zvanovka in DNR, indicating coordinated operational C2 for attempting encirclement. NEW: ТАСС reports that Kyiv has sent national battalions to Kupiansk in an attempt to hold back the Russian army, citing Marochko. This indicates RF awareness of UAF defensive measures and potential attempts to counter them. NEW: ТАСС reports that assault groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces special company retreated with heavy losses near Synelnykove, Kharkiv Oblast, citing Russian security forces. This suggests effective RF operational C2 in defensive operations. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video about the destruction of enemy communications equipment, demonstrating effective operational C2 for targeting UAF C2 elements. NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports RF conducted 95 combat engagements in the last 24 hours, indicating a sustained level of operational activity. The successful defense by UAF on multiple axes against these assaults also points to challenges in RF operational C2 to achieve decisive breakthroughs. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF forces struck UAF dislocaton points of the 425th regiment and 47th brigade near Yunakivka on the Sumy direction. NEW: Colonelcassad shares video of the 57th Separate Reconnaissance Spetsnaz Unit (orSpN) destroying two UAF temporary deployment points (PVD) near Oktyabrsky. NEW: Colonelcassad shares a video showcasing Russian military activities, including artillery fire, troop movements, and drone footage of explosions and equipment. NEW: ТАСС reports a group of Ukrainian soldiers surrendered in Kupiansk, demonstrating a potential failure in UAF operational C2 within that area, which RF would exploit. NEW: ТАСС shares video footage of FSB of DNR destroying enemy DRG by "Gorynych" counter-terrorism unit on Dzerzhinsk direction, confirming RF capabilities against UAF ground infiltration. NEW: ТАСС reports RF forces have approached Konstantinovka from several directions, citing DNR head Pushilin, indicating adaptive operational C2 to press offensives on critical axes.
Tactical C2: Adaptive, particularly in drone warfare (development of 'PUGACH' and 'Hortenzia,' FPV/loitering munition attacks, anti-drone tactics like the "setkomyot," RF 1st Tank Army drone interception, destruction of Paladin SAU by Dnepr grouping drones). However, vulnerability to UAF heavy drone mining operations and precision strikes on air defense assets (S-400, Tor-M2 systems, UAV C2 in Dmytrivka) exposes tactical C2 weaknesses. The repeated targeting of UAF drone control points by RF indicates an adaptive response to UAF tactical drone superiority. NEW: Colonelcassad shares video of RF forces from Kursk direction engaging enemy drones, indicating active and adaptive tactical C2 for counter-UAV operations. NEW: Colonelcassad shares a video showcasing Russian drone operators from the Rubicon center targeting enemy reconnaissance UAVs. This indicates a specialized tactical C2 for counter-ISR operations, directly challenging UAF drone superiority. NEW: ТАСС reports that drones from the 'Dnepr' grouping destroyed a US-made Paladin self-propelled artillery unit in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This is a significant claim of successful RF C-UAS and precision strike capabilities against high-value UAF equipment. The accompanying video describes the FPV drone operator's process of targeting, including using dust trails from artillery fire for identification. NEW: ТАСС shares a video claiming RF drone operators destroyed a tank and two UAF octocopters. This indicates effective RF tactical C2 in anti-armor and counter-UAV operations. NEW: Два майора shares video of an 18th Army FPV drone operator targeting enemy vehicles on roads covered by anti-drone nets, explicitly stating that the nets "did not help." This indicates RF adaptation to UAF defensive measures but also limitations in their C2 to fully counter UAF drone activity. NEW: ТАСС releases a video of the "Severny Veter" drone, which recently underwent trials in the SVO zone, depicting its assembly, launch, and aerial reconnaissance capabilities, including thermal imaging of Ukrainian positions. This indicates RF's continued development and deployment of new drone technology. NEW: Colonelcassad shares a video of Rostec testing a lightweight version of the "Obereg" assault body armor, indicating adaptive tactical C2 in improving soldier protection.
Information C2: Highly centralized and adaptive. Swiftly responds to international diplomatic events (UN GA, Trump-Zelenskyy meeting, NATO statements) to shape narratives and exploit divisions. Actively cultivates domestic narratives of resilience, strength, and victimhood. The immediate reporting by TASS on Trump's statements about Ukraine, and the subsequent "analysis" on their meaning by British newspapers (as reported by TASS) highlights a concerted effort to control the information flow and frame events to RF's advantage. This is a very effective and dynamic C2 function. NEW: TASS's rapid reporting on Melania Trump's rejection of a meeting with Olena Zelenska indicates immediate C2 to exploit perceived diplomatic snubs for propaganda purposes. NEW: TASS reports Maria Zakharova claimed a video of Kazakh President Tokayev at UNGA was a "crude fake," which is an immediate and aggressive use of information C2 to counter narratives. NEW: ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova commented on the Polish leader's actions at the UNGA, framing it negatively, as "Westerners inhaling the air of freedom." This demonstrates rapid and aggressive information C2 for diplomatic messaging. NEW: Colonelcassad shares photo messages (18+) of a deceased UAF soldier, indicating immediate tactical C2 to exploit UAF casualties for demoralization. NEW: TASS reports that 59% of bloggers have moved to Telegram, indicating a successful strategic C2 adaptation to shifts in the domestic information environment, allowing for continued influence on public discourse. NEW: Colonelcassad posts a video of a captured UAF serviceman recounting being tied to a tree and beaten by his commander, "Babai," for desertion. This narrative is intended to discredit UAF leadership and potentially demoralize UAF troops. NEW: ТАСС shares a video of popular musician Kasper giving his first interview for TASS on his performance before soldiers, aiming to boost morale among RF forces through cultural propaganda. NEW: ТАСС reports that figure skater Mark Kondratyuk has been added to the database of the Ukrainian extremist website "Mirotvorets," according to the resource's data. This demonstrates active information C2 to frame UAF entities as "extremist." NEW: TASS reporting Maxim Katz's arrest in absentia reinforces RF's control over the information environment regarding internal dissent. NEW: Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны (RF source) uses "Плохая новость для Зеленского" to frame Trump's statements from The Telegraph as negative for Ukraine. This indicates an immediate and opportunistic RF IO response to international diplomatic developments. NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares White House photos of the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting with the caption "He is a brave man, and he puts up a fierce fight," indicating a positive framing by US sources, which RF IO will likely attempt to counter. NEW: Басурин о главном shares a photo of Lavrov arriving in New York to show Russia's determination to remain a key global player. NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports public outrage over Maxim Divnich, a supporter, being criticized, indicating efforts to manage internal narratives around public figures. NEW: Kotsnews shares an article on "Russia's Strategy and Trump's Offensive," indicating adaptive IO to frame geopolitical events. NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА shares photo messages labeled "Магуры добрались до Португалии" which is a propaganda piece trying to extend UAF USV reach to NATO territory to justify RF aggression and deflect from internal vulnerabilities.
Overall: RF C2 is strong at the strategic and information levels, enabling centralized policy and narrative control. However, there are significant observed failures at the operational and tactical levels, particularly concerning troop welfare and localized infrastructure protection, leading to high attrition and vulnerabilities that UAF is actively exploiting. Adaptability in drone warfare and counter-sabotage measures is evident, but not always successful. The confirmed upcoming Rubio-Lavrov meeting further underscores the strategic C2's ability to engage diplomatically, even amidst conflict. The new focus on countering UAF reconnaissance drones by the "Rubicon" center indicates an adaptive and specialized tactical C2 response to UAF's drone capabilities.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (Confidence: HIGH)

Active and Resilient Defense: UAF maintains a strong, active, and resilient defensive posture, effectively repelling the vast majority of RF assaults across all major axes. This indicates high tactical readiness and discipline. The successful engagement against an 8-person RF assault group in Novotroitske demonstrates effective tactical defense. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація reports construction of anti-drone tunnels on front-line roads, indicating adaptive defensive measures and readiness against drone threats. UAF is repelling over 40 RF attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast today, indicating strong and active defensive posture. UAF-aligned sources (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)) are holding a virtual meeting with the Minister of Energy and other sector representatives to discuss substation defense. Олександр Вілкул provides a briefing on the results of September 23, likely related to local defense efforts. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of two fighters from 425 OSHB "Skelya," supported by drone operators, destroying an 8-person RF assault group in Novotoretsk, corroborating effective UAF tactical defense. DeepState shares drone footage of UAF drone operators from 241st Territorial Defense Brigade successfully targeting Russian positions on the western outskirts of Stepnohirsk. NEW: UAF Air Force reporting a UAV on course for Kyiv from the east indicates ongoing vigilance and defensive posture of capital air defenses. NEW: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports an air raid alert in Kyiv due to drone threats, confirming active defensive posture. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV on Kherson region on course for Mykolaiv region. NEW: Сили оборони Півдня України reports 20 shellings on 12 settlements in the past day, implying continuous defensive operations in the southern operational zone. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports that in Zaporizhzhia one high-rise building and three private houses were damaged due to a nighttime enemy attack, indicating continued defensive efforts against civilian targeting. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports drone operators of the 108th Kodak Territorial Defense Brigade continue to systematically destroy equipment, fortifications, and manpower of the Russian occupiers. This indicates continued UAF tactical successes and readiness. NEW: Олександр Вілкул reports that the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of the morning of 24.09.25, indicating effective local defense coordination. NEW: РБК-Україна shares a video of emergency services responding to an RF attack on Kharkiv, demonstrating readiness of civilian defense. NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports UAF repelled 95 RF combat engagements over the last 24 hours across multiple axes, confirming high readiness and effective defensive posture. NEW: Сили оборони Півдня України reports operational information as of 08:00 24.09.25, confirming ongoing defensive posture in the south and destruction of 16 Shahed-136 UAVs. NEW: РБК-Україна shares a map of the Lyman-Siversk front, showing 15 enemy attacks repelled, directly contradicting RF claims of advances and confirming UAF defensive effectiveness. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares a video discussing the increase in the defense fund and the construction of anti-drone trenches, demonstrating proactive defensive readiness.
Offensive Capabilities: Demonstrated offensive capability with liberation of Pankivka and Zarichne, and advances on the Dobropillya direction (164.5 sq. km liberated). Zelenskyy claims 360 sq. km liberated and approximately 1,000 Russian servicemen captured in recent weeks. FPV drones are achieving deep penetration into RF rear, with new video evidence of destruction of RF transport on Pokrovsk direction. UAF Flying Skull unit's effective FPV drone strikes on the Pokrovsk direction demonstrate sustained tactical offensive capabilities. NGU "Khartiia" corps has created a new unmanned systems unit in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating adaptive offensive capabilities. "Підрозділ Shadow" demonstrates high proficiency in drone-based precision strikes against fortified Russian positions, indicating effective tactical offensive capabilities. STERNENKO reports another occupier killed on the Pokrovsk direction. The destruction of two RF Tor-M2 air defense systems by UAF drones showcases potent offensive capabilities against high-value targets. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares drone footage claiming 18 Russian assault troops were burned alive by new napalm fragmentation bombs, demonstrating powerful UAF offensive capabilities. RBC-Україна shares video footage showing the destruction of two Russian TOR-M2 short-range air defense systems by the 412th 'Nemesis' Regiment of the Ukrainian Air Force. STERNENKO claims confirmed destruction of an "Iskander" system at the Molkino training ground in Kuban using 14 strike drones. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) shares video of a drone strike on a group of RF soldiers in a forest, indicating successful UAF action. STERNENKO shares FPV drone footage showing the destruction of a car and engagement with military trucks/personal, indicating continued UAF tactical successes. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА shares a video showing an FPV drone strike on personnel in a forested area, likely RF. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of a drone-kamikaze hitting a Russian soldier, followed by the soldier appearing severely incapacitated. The reported liberation of 360 sq. km and capture of 1,000 Russian servicemen by Zelenskyy indicate significant tactical and operational successes for UAF in recent weeks. DeepState shares video of 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Iron Falcons" striking enemy manpower east of Tovste. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of a series of successful UAF strikes on Russian military equipment. NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 provides anti-RF military commentary (e.g., "друга армія, йопта!"), demonstrating continued offensive information operations. NEW: TASS reports Ukraine expects to start drone production for the US by mid-2026, indicating a strategic long-term offensive capability in drone warfare and military-industrial complex development. NEW: TASS reports Ukraine is requesting an additional $15 billion from the West for military-industrial complex development in 2025-2026, highlighting ambitious offensive capabilities planning. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video of operators from the 73rd Marine Center of Special Operations conducting special actions in RF rear, with footage showing individuals in camouflage and an RPG, suggesting continued deep reconnaissance and sabotage operations. NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports UAF Air Force and Missile Troops struck 1 RF control point, 3 areas of personnel/equipment concentration, and 1 anti-aircraft missile system, demonstrating continued offensive capabilities. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports video of FPV drone pilots from the "Omega Wing" destroying enemy communications equipment, demonstrating effective targeting of RF C2 infrastructure.
Deep Strike Effectiveness: Highly effective deep strike capabilities against high-value RF strategic assets (Be-12 amphibious aircraft, Mi-8 helicopter in Crimea, S-400 system in Kaluga Oblast, two Tor-M2 systems). Potential missile strike on Druzhba oil pipeline station in Bryansk Oblast, if confirmed as UAF, represents a significant deep strike on RF energy infrastructure. UAF Air Force accurately struck an occupier's command post in southern Ukraine, demonstrating precision strike capability against C2. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" highlights a "record raid" by UAF drone pilots (Ivan Franko Group) deep into RF rear (55km), showcasing advanced deep strike capabilities. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS claims confirmed destruction of two Iskander launchers, a significant deep strike against RF ballistic missile capabilities. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant halted gasoline/diesel production due to a UAV attack on September 22, likely a successful UAF deep strike. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the SBU detained an FSB agent in Khmelnytskyi who was coordinating RF attacks on airfields and energy facilities in western Ukraine, indicating successful counter-intelligence. ASTRA reports that a summer UAF strike on the Molkino training ground damaged "Iskander" OTRK and "Pantsir-S1" anti-aircraft missile-gun systems. ASTRA reports UAF struck Taganrog, with video showing a UAV being destroyed during the attack. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares multiple videos/photos of impacts in different parts of RF, including Kursk Oblast (Lgov) and Taganrog. NEW: Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны states a massive attack is underway on the energy infrastructure of border regions, which could impact UAF logistical planning if similar tactics are used on Ukraine. NEW: TASS reports parts of five districts in Kursk Oblast are without electricity after UAF strikes. NEW: ТАСС reports a massive UAV attack was repelled in Volgograd Oblast, and ASTRA confirms that air defense repelled a drone attack on fuel and energy facilities in Volgograd Oblast. This confirms a new UAF deep strike target area and significant UAF offensive capabilities. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast, indicating continued UAF offensive pressure against RF positions. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports a fire at the Zenzevatka oil pumping station in Volgograd Oblast, Russia, based on media reports, confirming successful UAF deep strike capabilities. NEW: ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, and STERNENKO all report on a significant fire at the Salavat petrochemical complex in Bashkiria, attributed to drone attacks, confirming a successful UAF deep strike on critical RF energy infrastructure. NEW: Два майора shares video of Ukrainian UAVs attacking the Salavat oil refinery. NEW: РБК-Україна reports Ukrainian intelligence has repeatedly hacked the servers of the occupation authorities in Crimea, indicating continued cyber offensive capabilities and intelligence gathering. NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА shares photo messages labeled "Магуры добрались до Португалии" which, if it implies UAF USVs reaching NATO territory, would represent a significant, but unverified, deep strike capability.
Air Defense Prowess: Achieved an impressive 82.9% interception rate (126/152 RF UAVs), demonstrating high readiness and effective C2, though sustained attacks will test munitions. Ballistic missile threats have been cleared. Continued air defense activity against reconnaissance UAVs over Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia indicates ongoing vigilance. Air raid alerts in Kharkiv due to enemy UAVs indicate active air defense posture. NEW: TASS reports 19 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF regions and the Black Sea in two hours. NEW: ASTRA reports 19 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over RF regions and Black Sea. NEW: Николаевский Ванёк reports on the remaining "moped" targets. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues an "Attention!" warning. NEW: Zelenskyy's statement at the UN Security Council highlights the critical importance of air defense, stating "If there is no war in the sky, Russia cannot continue to fight on the ground," emphasizing the continued strategic focus on air defense capabilities. NEW: An air raid alert was declared in Kyiv due to drone threats, indicating active air defense response in the capital. NEW: ТАСС reports that over 70 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russia overnight by air defense forces, according to the Ministry of Defense. NEW: ТАСС reports that air defense forces and the Black Sea Fleet shot down 16 UAVs over Sevastopol overnight, with no damage to city facilities, according to Razvozhayev. These confirm UAF's ability to conduct sustained drone attacks on RF territory, challenging RF air defenses. NEW: Сили оборони Півдня України reports 16 "Shahed-136" UAVs were destroyed in the Southern operational zone during the night. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a new "Attention!" warning, indicating ongoing air threats.
Adaptive Warfare: Adapting tactics with innovative counter-UAV operations (FPV drones intercepting Lancet/Forpost). UAF monitoring of RF's use of air balloons in drone attacks indicates an adaptive intelligence posture. The delivery of the "Mriya 4.5.0" drone to the Pokrovsk direction unit shows continuous efforts to adapt and upgrade drone capabilities. UAF is actively acquiring thermal imagers, indicating a focus on enhancing night combat capabilities. UAF is utilizing ground robotic complexes for wounded soldier evacuation, demonstrating innovative tactical adaptation and force protection.
Training and Medical Preparedness: Ongoing training (Naval Infantry, engineering/sapper, Air Force rifle brigade training) and robust veteran recovery programs indicate efforts to maintain combat readiness and personnel care. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares multiple photo messages with military personnel and equipment, likely highlighting training or readiness.
Personnel Morale and Support: Strong societal support (daily minute of silence, veteran programs, PoW family support, Coordination HQ meeting with Azov families) helps maintain high morale. The "Resistance Movement" indicates continued local support in occupied territories. Efforts to improve military administration with the 'Army+' mobile application are underway. Zaporizhzhia OBA is actively communicating support services for POW/MIA families to maintain morale. Grassroots fundraising efforts continue to support UAF equipment needs. Cybersecurity workshops for teenagers by the Coordination Headquarters for POWs indicate long-term strategic readiness for digital threats. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими held a meeting with families of servicemen from the 105th Border Detachment, demonstrating continued high-level support for military families and their morale. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports another fatality from an RF strike in Kyiv, which, while a setback, also galvanizes resolve. DeepState posts recruitment advertisements for IT specialists, indicating proactive efforts to attract specialized talent. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that 1625 children abducted by Russia have been returned to Ukraine. ASTRA reports Zelenskyy's statement on 1625 returned children. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares images of Ukrainians observing a moment of silence for fallen defenders. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares a video of a moment of silence. NEW: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) honors fallen defenders from Kyiv. NEW: Офіс Генерального прокурора emphasizes the nationwide moment of silence.
Logistical Challenges & Constraints: High consumption of air defense munitions. Energy infrastructure significantly damaged (42% gas production, all oil refining capacity destroyed), with Kyiv anticipating further attacks, poses a major long-term logistical constraint. New attacks on railway infrastructure further compound logistical challenges. Preventing component supply to RF remains an ongoing challenge, though the Chinese ship in Crimea and parallel imports may indicate RF is finding new avenues. Ongoing fundraising appeals indicate that state-level resupply is insufficient to meet all equipment needs, creating a reliance on grassroots efforts for essential items like charging stations and drone spare parts. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF CLAIM, Confidence: MEDIUM) reports that power supply to ZNPP was cut after a UAF strike, if verified, would represent a significant new constraint on Ukraine's energy supply and, by extension, logistical capabilities. UAF-aligned sources (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)) are holding a virtual meeting with the Minister of Energy and other sector representatives to discuss substation defense, highlighting urgent resource requirements and existing constraints for energy infrastructure protection. Оперативний ЗСУ shares an appeal for an EcoFlow charging station, drone spare parts, and soldier equipment for UAF units, indicating ongoing logistical needs. ASTRA reports RF forces struck Kharkiv, causing power outages. NEW: Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны states a massive attack is underway on the energy infrastructure of border regions. NEW: НгП раZVедка claims destruction of power substation "Ivanivka" in Kharkiv by 21 strike UAVs, further damaging energy infrastructure. NEW: РБК-Україна reports the "Rubizh" National Guard Brigade is collecting funds to restore destroyed property and equipment. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС highlights the environmental impact of drone fiber optics, which could become a future resource challenge for cleanup.
Political Environment: Internal dissent within "Servant of the People" party reported. Zelenskyy's international engagements aim to secure sustained support. A new bill (No. 14057) that could restrict critical publications and journalistic investigations is being considered by the Verkhovna Rada. Reuters is reporting that Ukraine is preparing for a new stage of the war. A UAF-aligned source (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) states the war is unlikely to end soon, reflecting a realistic assessment. President Zelenskyy's presence at the UN General Assembly underscores continued diplomatic engagement for international support. The reported meeting time between Zelenskyy and Trump indicates ongoing high-level diplomatic efforts. UAF General Staff reports a videoconference with Commander of US Army Europe and Africa and NATO Ground Command, General Christopher Donahue, highlighting continued high-level military cooperation. Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports on a Defense Council meeting focused on protection of people and territories, demonstrating strong regional administrative governance and focus on defense. Zelenskiy / Official and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА participate in International Coalition meeting for return of Ukrainian children, highlighting humanitarian diplomatic efforts. RBC-Ukraine reports Syrskyi briefed the US Commander about front priorities, prioritizing air defense and missiles. Zelenskiy / Official reports a meeting with Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter, signaling ongoing diplomatic outreach and securing international partnerships. RBC-Україна reports Zelenskyy has specified the number of children abducted by Russia who have been returned to Ukraine, a humanitarian success. Oleg Synehubov, Head of Kharkiv ODA, shares photos of constructing new safe learning spaces for children in Kharkiv Oblast, demonstrating proactive civilian protection and resilience measures. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна share video of Zelenskyy heading to a bilateral meeting with Trump. Zelenskyy's public media statements with Donald Trump, widely reported by UAF-aligned sources, underscore continued high-level international diplomatic engagement to secure support and articulate Ukraine's position. Zelenskyy's direct statement on 360 sq. km liberated and 1,000 Russian POWs serves as a strong morale boost and demonstrates offensive capability. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy intriguing statement that Slovakia may refuse Russian gas and oil, potentially indicating an opportunity to secure alternative energy supplies, alleviating some constraints. РБК-Україна reports on possible Canadian peacekeepers for Ukraine. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting has concluded. РБК-Україна confirms the bilateral meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump has concluded after approximately one hour. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting has concluded, with both presidents speaking positively about it. РБК-Україна shares video of Zelenskyy sharing first impressions after his conversation with Trump, confirming the meeting. STERNENKO reports Trump stating that Ukraine, with EU support, can fight and WIN, returning all of Ukraine to its original form. TASS reports Trump stated that American weapon supplies to Ukraine will continue. РБК-Україна reports Trump stated that Ukraine will be able to return its country to its original form and potentially achieve more. Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны also reports Trump's statement that Ukraine, with EU support, is capable of fighting and WINNING, returning all of Ukraine to its original form. Alex Parker Returns reports Trump believes Ukraine, with EU help, can regain all its territory and even advance into Russian territory, directly boosting UAF morale and confidence. Alex Parker Returns and Оперативний ЗСУ also report Trump's statement that Russia has been fighting a meaningless war for three and a half years, which a real military power could win in less than a week. Zelenskyy states Trump now trusts him more than Putin regarding front information. Trump stated his good relations with Putin "meant nothing" for conflict resolution. Zelenskyy states Trump is "the one who can radically change everything." Zelenskyy reports that Trump will provide security guarantees to Ukraine after the war. Zelenskyy responded to Trump's post about Ukraine being able to regain all its territories by stating it was his dialogue with Trump and he wants it to remain between them. Zelenskyy stated that Trump agreed with him that Putin will not wait for the end of the war in Ukraine and will try to find weaknesses in Europe in NATO countries. Zelenskyy indicated that the US itself can take strong steps regarding sanctions against the Russian Federation. Zelenskyy stated that several promising ideas for bringing peace closer were discussed with Trump, and he hopes they will yield quick results. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) and Zelenskiy / Official are participating in a high-level UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine. NEW: ТАСС reports Trump preserves the possibility of tightening sanctions against RF and supplying weapons to Ukraine, according to Rubio. NEW: Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны shares Zelenskyy's statement that Trump agreed Putin will not wait for the end of the war in Ukraine and in NATO countries. NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares Zelenskyy's statements on his meeting with Trump. NEW: Zelenskiy / Official posts photos of a meeting with Annalena Baerbock, head of the 80th UN General Assembly, discussing support for Ukraine's sovereignty. NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy explains how he convinced Trump not to believe Putin's "fairytales" about the battlefield situation. NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy's statement that Trump now believes in Ukraine's ability to regain all its territory and views Trump as a "game-changer." NEW: Zelenskiy / Official posts videos of his meeting with the Hereditary Prince Alois of Liechtenstein, discussing humanitarian aid. NEW: РБК-Україна shares video of Zelenskyy speaking on why Putin is absent from the UN Security Council meeting. NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy's meeting with Prince Alois, discussing humanitarian aid and threats from RF. NEW: РБК-Україна reports US Secretary of State Marco Rubio states the war in Ukraine cannot end through combat, but through diplomacy. NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy stating on Fox News that Trump understands "we cannot just exchange territories." NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy stating on Fox News that Trump can change Xi Jinping's attitude toward the war, and that "we don't feel that China wants to end this war." NEW: ТАСС reports Trump's statements on Ukraine should not be seen as a change in American position. NEW: РБК-Україна publishes photo from White House of Zelenskyy-Trump meeting. NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy states Ukraine and other countries proposed negotiations with Russia at the leadership level, even in Kazakhstan. NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy on Fox News discusses the possibility of elections in Ukraine, which is a diplomatic success for open discussion of democratic processes during wartime. NEW: ТАСС reports an incident at the UN, where an escalator with Trump on it stopped due to a security mechanism activated by a US delegation videographer. NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy at the UN Security Council states if there is no war in the sky, Russia cannot continue to fight on the ground, highlighting a strategic understanding of the conflict and the importance of air defense. NEW: РБК-Україна shares Zelenskyy's photo message stating the Budapest Memorandum failed, leading Ukraine to build a new security architecture. This demonstrates a proactive and adaptive diplomatic response to past failures. NEW: G7 Foreign Ministers discussed new sanctions against Russia and potential measures against third countries, indicating continued diplomatic support for Ukraine. NEW: TASS reports Ukraine expects to start drone production for the US by mid-2026, indicating a significant success in long-term defense industrial cooperation and self-reliance. NEW: TASS reports Ukraine is requesting an additional $15 billion from the West for military-industrial complex development in 2025-2026. This highlights Ukraine's proactive efforts to build its defense industry and secure long-term military support. NEW: ТАСС reports Melania Trump rejected requests from Ukraine's First Lady Olena Zelenska for a meeting in New York, a minor diplomatic setback for Ukraine's soft power efforts. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares videos of Zelenskyy's interview on Fox News, further amplifying his positive diplomatic engagements. NEW: Операция Z Военкоры Русской Весны reports on the Verkhovna Rada wanting to restrict journalist work, which would be a domestic political challenge. NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares White House photos of the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting with the caption "He is a brave man, and he puts up a fierce fight," highlighting strong US diplomatic support. NEW: STERNENKO is hosting a stream about Trump, indicating continued public engagement with these diplomatic developments. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaking at the UN, stating that Putin is afraid to sit face-to-face with

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