Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT - 221449Z SEP 25

---

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current operational picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (Confidence: HIGH)

RF forces maintain multi-axis pressure across the Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia axes. Heavy reciprocal battles continue in Sumy Oblast, although enemy activity has noticeably decreased in September. RF claims recent unverified advances in Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, and the occupation of the medical college area in Kupiansk, with military control and fortifications on the Velikoburlukskoye direction. RF also claims a 5km advance on the Gulyaipole direction, entering Novoivanivka, and new positions south of Novoivanivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF claims full control of Serebryansky forestry and the liberation of Berëzovoye and Kalynivske in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (CONFIRMED by RF MoD and DeepState for Berëzovoye). RF continues to claim an offensive behind Chasiv Yar. UAF has confirmed the liberation of Pankivka, Donetsk Oblast, and Zarichne, and reports eliminating a Russian breakthrough near Pokrovsk. Heavy fighting continues on the Krasnolimanskoye direction. UAF General Staff reports over 80 combat engagements in the last 24 hours, repelling the majority of RF assaults across multiple axes, particularly Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka. UAF reports advances on the Dobropillya direction, having liberated 164.5 sq. km.

Key Updates:

• Kyiv Oblast:
  • Air raid threat previously reported has been lifted. (FACT, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Multiple reports confirmed a significant drone attack in Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast, with a three-story residential building and two private homes set on fire. One person was injured. Rescue workers liquidated the consequences of enemy attacks in four districts of Kyiv Oblast (Boryspil, Obukhiv, Brovary, and Vyshhorod). This confirms widespread damage across multiple districts. (FACT, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Confidence: HIGH).
  • UAVs from Cherkasy Oblast were heading towards Kyiv Oblast (Boryspil district). Air raid declared in Kyiv, UAVs approaching from northeast and east. UAF reports 10 Shaheds inbound to Brovary. Air defense actively engaged in Kyiv Oblast. Air raid alert cancelled for Kyiv. Last reported remaining Shahed activity was concentrated towards Kyiv Oblast from northern and northeastern directions. (FACT, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), Confidence: HIGH).
  • RF sources are claiming to have attacked a Patriot air defense system position near Kyiv, likely using the ongoing drone and missile activity as cover. (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH - of claim, LOW - of verification).
  • Air raid alert declared in Kyiv due to ballistic missile threat from east and north. Subsequently cancelled. (FACT, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), РБК-Україна, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Kotsnews shares a video of a Russian drone operator not engaging Ukrainian humanitarian workers, possibly for propaganda purposes or demonstrating rules of engagement. (FACT, Kotsnews, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Damage to the contact line of public transport on Akademika Glushkova Avenue in Kyiv has complicated traffic in both directions. (FACT, РБК-Україна, Confidence: HIGH).
• Crimea (Yanila/Foros): RF MoD confirms 3 personnel killed and 16 wounded in a UAF drone attack on a sanatorium and school in Foros. TASS now reports 4 individuals are in serious condition, two of whom are in intensive care. Sever.Realii confirms 3 fatalities. A school in Foros, damaged by a UAF UAV, has shifted students to remote learning. RF MoD declares the UAF attack on Crimea a "premeditated terrorist attack on civilian objects." (FACT, Операция Z, Военкор Котенок, Colonelcassad, ASTRA, ТАСС, Sever.Realii, Confidence: HIGH). Crimean prosecution has launched a hotline for citizens affected by the UAV attack in Yalta. UAF sources confirm hitting the Sanatorium Terletsky, a school, and the Foros sanatorium. (FACT, КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno, Confidence: HIGH). RF MoD reiterates the narrative of a "deliberate terrorist attack against civilian objects" in Crimea, emphasizing the civilian nature of targets. TASS and ASTRA confirm imagery of damage to the school in Foros. A video from RF sources (Два майора) shows extensive damage inside a classroom of the A.S. Terletsky secondary school in Foros, depicting overturned bookshelves, scattered debris, and broken windows, consistent with an explosion or shelling. Alex Parker Returns adds that the targeted sanatorium is a departmental FSB sanatorium, where a "special event" was taking place, suggesting military relevance. Colonelcassad reports 12 patients hospitalized from Foros in the Yalta FMBA medical center. TASS reports that dangerous item neutralization in Foros school has concluded. TASS reports that among the injured in the UAF attack on Crimea are citizens of Belarus. Vladimir Konstantinov, head of the State Council of the region, stated the "Kiev regime will be punished." (FACT, MoD Russia, ТАСС, ASTRA, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that collaborator Saldo may have died during the strike on the "FSB dacha" in Crimea, citing Russian media (LOW - of verification). TASS now states Saldo was in Moscow during the strike, refuting UAF claims. (FACT, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, TASS, Confidence: HIGH - of claim, MEDIUM - of refutation).
  • Николаевский Ванёк shares video showing the aftermath of a helicopter crash, with significant debris, and a functional military helicopter in the background, likely related to the GUR strike. (FACT, Николаевский Ванёк, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports preliminary damage from the attack on Foros exceeds 18.7 million rubles. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Alex Parker Returns shares video from Foros showing a sunset with faint lights, captioned "Attack on Foros. We must admit that air defense tried to repel the strike." This could be an attempt to downplay damage or show RF resilience. (FACT, Alex Parker Returns, Confidence: HIGH).
• Lviv Oblast: Explosion reported near Lviv, damaging windows and vehicles. Police detained a suspect. (FACT, РБК-Україна, Confidence: HIGH).
• Kharkiv Oblast: RF tactical aviation launches guided aerial bombs (КАБ) towards northern Kharkiv Oblast. RF sources (TASS, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) claim UAF was unable to liberate the encircled 57th and 127th brigades, suffering losses and retreating to initial positions (MEDIUM - RF claim, unverified). WarGonzo also reports intense fighting and claims of RF success on the Kharkiv front. Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv OVA, reports that 7 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes in the past day. (FACT, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, WarGonzo, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Confidence: HIGH). RF media also reports on the Kupiansk direction. (FACT, Два майора, Confidence: HIGH - of claim).
  • In Kharkiv, an action "Do not be silent. Captivity kills" was held in support of missing and captured defenders. (FACT, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Confidence: HIGH).
  • UAF Khartia unit drone operators are actively engaging and destroying Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast using aerial reconnaissance and artillery targeting. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Clashes reported near Vovchansk, Tykhe, Zapadne and towards Odradne (South Slobozhansky/Kharkiv direction). (FACT, Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Clashes reported near Stepova Novoselivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka and Kupiansk (Kupiansk direction). (FACT, Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • An explosion was heard in Kharkiv. (FACT, РБК-Україна, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Around 11:24, RF launched a missile strike on Bobrivka, Kharkiv district. (FACT, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv OVA, reports 840 million UAH allocated for the protection of energy facilities in the Kharkiv region. (FACT, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Kadyrov_95 shares video of FPV drone attacks by the Sheikh Mansur rifle battalion on Ukrainian military positions and equipment in the Kharkiv direction. (FACT, Kadyrov_95, Confidence: HIGH).
  • RF reports advances in Volchansk. (FACT, Старше Эдды, Confidence: HIGH - of claim, LOW - of verification).
• Pokrovsk Direction: UAF 28th Mechanized Brigade artillery actively engaging RF targets near Konstantinovka (Pokrovsk axis). UAF SSO 144th Center 1st Detachment successfully cleared a depot building and captured nine RF soldiers on the Pokrovsk direction. Video evidence shows 28th Mechanized Brigade artillery targeting RF forces advancing on Konstantinovka. (FACT, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH). RF sources are publishing drone footage of heavily damaged residential areas in Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, located near Pokrovsk, highlighting widespread destruction. (FACT, Colonelcassad, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports an RF assault trooper, 'Pastukh,' claims to have single-handedly captured a UAF strongpoint in Kamenskoye (LOW - verification). (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH - of claim).
  • Colonelcassad reports 'Sparta' unit destroying three UAF UAV control points (ПУ БЛА ВСУ) in Dimitrov (likely Myrnohrad region). (FACT, Colonelcassad, Confidence: HIGH).
  • A video features a captured Russian soldier from Irkutsk expressing despair and criticizing Russian command, suggesting low morale and heavy losses in RF units, particularly on the Pokrovsk direction. (FACT, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Confidence: HIGH). UAF General Staff provides updated maps showing RF assaults repelled on the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions, indicating continued UAF defensive success. (FACT, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH). WarGonzo also reports on the Donetsk front and "Storm" holding success on the Pokrovsk direction. The video shows Russian soldiers driving through a devastated urban area, discussing supply line and logistics challenges. (FACT, WarGonzo, Confidence: HIGH - of claim).
  • Colonelcassad reports RF operations in Malynivka, Zaporizhzhia region, and Poddubnoye, claiming liberation. These operations involved the 36th Motor Rifle Brigade and 5th Army of the "Vostok" group. They also claim liberation of Dachnoye and Novoukrainka by the 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and Novoselovka in Dnipropetrovsk region. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports a video of an assault trooper "Enot" from the 114th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment of the "Vostok" group in Olhivske, Gulyaipole district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, claiming a battle took place there. MoD Russia also shares details on the liberation of Olgovskoye (Olhivske). (FACT, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Старше Эдды, MoD Russia, Confidence: HIGH - of claim, LOW - of verification).
  • РБК-Україна indicates RF forces are complaining about "meat assaults" near Pokrovsk, suggesting high casualty rates for RF. (FACT, РБК-Україна, Confidence: HIGH).
  • A UAF video shows a soldier collecting and filtering murky water near Pokrovsk, highlighting severe logistical challenges for UAF forces in accessing clean water. (FACT, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • A Z-blogger, Romanov, described RF offensive on Pokrovsk direction from the perspective of RF assault troops. (FACT, БУТУСУ ПЛЮС, Confidence: HIGH - of claim).
  • STERNENKO reports RF has intensified assault actions in the responsibility area of the 7th Corps of the Airborne Assault Troops and is trying to block logistical routes. (FACT, STERNENKO, Confidence: HIGH).
  • The "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" channel shares an image of a military map with red lines and arrows, indicating RF troop movements on the Lyman direction. Сливочный каприз also shares imagery of Krasny Lyman - Derilovo, showing drone footage of an explosion and casualties. (FACT, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Сливочный каприз, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Clashes reported near Pankivka, Nykanorivka, Novoekonomichne, Chervonyy Lyman, Promin, Chunyshyne, Zvirove, Udachne, Kotlyne and Dachne (Pokrovsk direction). (FACT, Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Clashes reported near Stupochky and Novomarkove (Kramatorsk direction). (FACT, Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Clashes reported near Pleschiyivka, Rusyn Yar, Poltavka and Toretsk (Toretsk direction). (FACT, Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Video shows drone footage of artillery strikes against Russian military positions near Pokrovsk by Khartia unit drone operators. (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH).
  • RF is shelling Horlivka, DNR; there are casualties. (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH).
  • "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares a map with red arrows indicating RF advances in the Konstantinovka direction, suggesting a potential offensive from existing positions. Video in the message shows combat footage. (FACT, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Kotsnews shares thermal imaging footage showing a Ukrainian hexacopter drone (R-18/LF240) being targeted and struck on the Kramatorsk-Druzhkovsk direction, indicating RF counter-UAV successes in this area. (FACT, Kotsnews, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Народная милиция ДНР shares video of the 'Metis' crew of the 238th Brigade targeting and eliminating UAF infantry in Stepanivka. (FACT, Народная милиция ДНР, Confidence: HIGH).
  • STERNENKO shares drone footage showing UAF attacks on RF military vehicles, including trucks and an armored personnel carrier, targeting RF logistics on the Pokrovsk direction. The video features a QR code for Ukrainian defense force donations. (FACT, STERNENKO, Confidence: HIGH).
  • РБК-Україна reports that "Shaheds" hit a school in Kramatorsk, confirming new RF strikes on civilian educational facilities in Donetsk Oblast. (FACT, РБК-Україна, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Сливочный каприз shares an image and video captioned "22.09.25 Константиновка - Предтечино," showing what appears to be a military map and an aerial drone video of explosions in a wooded area. This indicates active combat and targeting by RF or UAF forces. (FACT, Сливочный каприз, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) shares drone footage of Ukrainian combatants reportedly detonating on mines in Stepanivka on the Konstantinovka direction, implying successful RF mine-laying or UAF operational errors. (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH).
• Chernihiv Oblast: RF UAVs reported north of Chernihiv, constantly changing direction, and heading south. Moment of overflight and strike of a reactive "Geran-3" on objects in Chernihiv Oblast, targeting a Ukrainian oil refinery. (FACT, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonelcassad, Военкор Котенок, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Два майора shares video claiming a "Geran-3" reactive UAV attacked an oil depot in Bakhmach, Chernihiv Oblast. The video depicts a large fire and smoke plume. (FACT, Два майора, Confidence: HIGH).
• Poltava Oblast: Four RF Shahed drones reported heading towards/through Poltava. UAVs reported in southern and central Poltava Oblast, heading north. Another UAV group heading towards Kremenchuk from the southeast. (FACT, Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ show videos of a damaged Ukrainian Railways (UZ) passenger train in Poltava Oblast, which was hit by RF. (FACT, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
• Siversk Direction: UAF FPV drones successfully intercepted two Russian Lancet drones. Clashes reported near Serebryanka and towards Vyyimka and Yampil (Siversk direction). (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of soldiers of the 95th Polissia Separate Air Assault Brigade using anti-aircraft FPV drones to destroy an expensive Russian "Forpost" reconnaissance drone, costing nearly $7 million, in the Siversk direction. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Сливочный каприз shares an image captioned "22.09.25 Северск - Выемка," and a drone video showing explosions in a wooded area, likely indicating active combat. (FACT, Сливочный каприз, Confidence: HIGH).
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: RF claims an "Orlan-10" UAV crew helped destroy a UAF deployment point on the right bank of the Dnipro. TASS reports RF forces have taken a large UAF logistics hub in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast into a "semi-encirclement," according to Igor Kimakovsky, advisor to the DPR head (LOW - verification). Two districts of Dnipropetropavsk Oblast were under enemy fire, confirming damage to residential buildings. (FACT, ТАСС, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Confidence: HIGH).
  • RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Havrylivka of Dnipropetropetrovsk region. (FACT, Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Воин DV claims that the "Vostok" Group of Forces liberated another settlement in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast (Kalynivske). TASS, Kotsnews, and Mash na Donbasse also report the liberation of Kalinovskoye in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also posts a map of the Dnipropetrovsk direction, which may indicate RF advances. (FACT, Воин DV, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, Kotsnews, Mash на Донбассе, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Confidence: HIGH - of claim, LOW - of verification). РБК-Україна reports that UAF has responded to these claims, denying RF's capture of Kalynivske. (FACT, РБК-Україна, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Explosions reported in Pavlohrad, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, amid ballistic missile threat. STERNENKO reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV operating over Pavlohrad, possibly correcting fire. (FACT, РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, STERNENKO, Confidence: HIGH).
• General Ground Operations: UAF FPV drones from 4th "Wormbusters" unit successfully liquidated two RF personnel. RF unit "Sever V" is using thermal-equipped drones to hunt UAF infantry and disrupt counterattacks near Chasiv Yar. Ussuri airborne troops are shown destroying a UAF "Baba Yaga" drone. RF claims a Ka-52M helicopter crew destroyed three drones with "Igla" missiles during a night operation. RF MoD claims TOS-1A "Solntsepek" systems destroyed UAF strongpoints in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF FPV drone operators from the 414th UAV Brigade "Birds of Madyar" are publishing posthumous photos of Russian assault troops. RF 1st Tank Army FPV drone operators claim a successful ambush near Borova. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, TASS, БУТУСУ ПЛЮС, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF left dozens of bodies of fellow servicemen in Olhivske, Zaporizhzhia direction (LOW - RF claim, unverified). (FACT, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Confidence: LOW - RF claim, unverified).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the "Sapsan" battalion of the 10th Army Corps has targeted and destroyed two enemy "Bukhanka" vehicles and one motorcycle. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Kotsnews share a video, described as "Crouching Vandal, Hidden Crab" from "Baltic drone operators of the 'Sever' group," claiming to have hit two camouflaged enemy self-propelled artillery units (SAU) (LOW - verification of hit). (FACT, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Kotsnews, Confidence: HIGH - of claim).
  • "Два майора" posts a video with three soldiers identifying them as the "first assault brigade of the Volkov Wolves," appealing for donations for assault troops on the Slavyansk direction. (FACT, Два майора, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Clashes reported near Hrekivka, Novomykhaylivka, Shandryholove, Kolodyazi, Torske and Novoselivka (Lyman direction). (FACT, Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Clashes reported near Filiya, Zelenyy Hay, Piddubne, Maliyivka, Sichneve, Komyshuvakha, Vorone, Novomykolayivka and Zaporizke (Novopavlivka direction). (FACT, Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Clashes reported near Olhivske and towards Poltavka (Orikhiv direction). (FACT, Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Clashes reported near Kamyanske and towards Mala Tokmachka and Novodanylivka (Huliaipole direction). (FACT, Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • MoD Russia shares a video of a TOS-1A Solntsepyok heavy flamethrower system smashing a stronghold of the AFU near Chervonoye, Zaporozhye region. (FACT, MoD Russia, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Pidrozdil Shadow shares drone footage of a destroyed building or structure with smoke and targeting reticles, which could indicate a successful strike on RF positions. (FACT, Підрозділ Shadow, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Бутусов Плюс shares a video of RF infantry being engaged by UAF, with an explosion occurring, and a vehicle being destroyed by fire, described as "double suicide." (FACT, БУТУСУ ПЛЮС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Народная милиция ДНР shares video of the 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment shooting down UAF drones over Nova Poltavka and Poltavka. (FACT, Народная милиция ДНР, Confidence: HIGH - RF claim, LOW - of verification).
  • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares video of RF special forces using motorcycles for rapid assault on a fortified UAF position. Два майора also shares a similar video. (FACT, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора, Confidence: HIGH - RF claim, LOW - of verification).
  • ГрВ "Днепр" and BARS-SARMAT demonstrating the importance of drones for supporting ground troops. (FACT, Два майора, Confidence: HIGH).
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video report from a Russian serviceman claiming that for 4 consecutive days, his comrades have been detonating on mines remotely dropped by Ukrainian heavy drones on RF logistical routes. (FACT, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Два майора shares video of an alleged UAF military convoy being destroyed by an aerial attack, with a pilot's cockpit perspective and a large explosion. The caption states "Hairy terrorists wanted to gain a foothold, but only managed to annihilate themselves." (FACT, Два майора, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Kotsnews shares video from the "liberation of Muravka," featuring RF assault troopers discussing tactical movements, minefields, and the engagement of fortified positions, suggesting active ground operations and infantry advances. Another Kotsnews video shows an RF soldier discussing night operations due to UAF aerial surveillance. (FACT, Kotsnews, Confidence: HIGH).
  • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a highly-pixelated and distorted video with explosions, captioned "Froze? We'll warm you up!", implying aggressive combat action by RF special forces. (FACT, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Colonelcassad is organizing a fundraiser for "assault troopers and scouts operating in the South Donetsk direction," appealing for drones, anti-drone equipment, and thermal imagers, indicating ongoing materiel needs for this axis. The associated video shows soldiers in military gear. (FACT, Colonelcassad, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of soldiers of the 5th Assault Brigade successfully striking two guns and a self-propelled artillery unit (SAU) of the enemy, featuring drone footage with targeting reticles and explosions. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares drone footage of the "Steel Border" brigade of the State Border Guard Service operating in Sumy Oblast, showing successful engagements against Russian forces in wooded areas, preventing them from approaching the contact line. (FACT, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Confidence: HIGH).
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Four new RF Shahed drones heading towards Zaporizhzhia. Air raid alerts were declared and cancelled. An RF attack targeted a civilian infrastructure object, destroying and damaging vehicles, causing a fire. Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration reports 5 strikes on civilian infrastructure and industrial facilities. Video corroborates burning vehicles. A woman died, with the head of Zaporizhzhia OVA, Ivan Fedorov, confirming two dead and two wounded, later revised to three fatalities. STERNENKO (UAF-aligned) reports RF hit Zaporizhzhia with КАБ (guided aerial bombs). An unexploded КАБ munition was found. (FACT, Николаевский Ванёк, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація, РБК-Україна, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Zelenskiy / Official, Север.Реалії, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Zaporizhzhia OVA reports Ivan Fedorov stating 7-8 shells were fired, hitting residential buildings and critical infrastructure. Videos show extensive damage to civilian infrastructure. Rescue workers recovered the body of a 75-year-old woman. (FACT, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ, Zelenskiy / Official, РБК-Україна, ASTRA, Confidence: HIGH).
  • RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Orikhiv of Zaporizhzhia region. (FACT, Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast amid ballistic missile threat. (FACT, РБК-Україна, Confidence: HIGH). A loud explosion heard by Zaporizhzhia residents was identified as air defense activity. (FACT, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Олексій Білошицький (UAF source) shares video of aftermath in Zaporizhzhia, captioning "Enemy night attack with guided aerial bombs again brought pain to Zaporizhzhia." (FACT, Олексій Білошицький, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Two individuals, a man and a 16-year-old boy, remain under medical supervision due to shrapnel wounds, injuries, and acute stress reactions. (FACT, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ shares a photo of an unexploded guided aerial bomb (КАБ) used by RF in Zaporizhzhia, indicating munition malfunction and an ongoing threat. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration shares video depicting extensive destruction to residential buildings and infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia from missile strikes, with emergency services responding. (FACT, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the SBU has sentenced a kindergarten security guard to 15 years for adjusting RF strikes on Zaporizhzhia, highlighting internal security successes. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
• Mykolaiv Oblast: UAV reported from Kherson Oblast heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAV from Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast. Sil'y Oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny reports 19 Shahed-136 drones were destroyed in the southern regions during the past day. (FACT, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Сили оборони Півдня України, Confidence: HIGH).
• Sumy Oblast: UAV reported in the Sumy region, heading southwest. A hit in one of the districts of Sumy, one person injured due to a hostile UAV attack. Acting Mayor of Sumy reports two Shahed drones hit industrial and educational facilities, with damage to residential buildings. Head of Sumy OVA reports a security guard injured. ASTRA publishes a video confirming missile strikes (two cruise, one Shahed drone) on industrial and educational institutions, with one injured civilian. TASS reports five UAF servicemen surrendered to the Russian army in Sumy Oblast. WarGonzo also reports on the Sumy front. UAF Air Force reports launches of КАБ on Sumy Oblast. ASTRA reports that local authorities state two people were injured. (FACT, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна, ASTRA, ТАСС, WarGonzo, Confidence: HIGH).
  • "Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН "Ахмат" (RF Telegram channel) posts a video claiming surveillance in Velikaya Pisarevka, Sumy Oblast, with a text overlay suggesting counter-surveillance or EW activity. (FACT, «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат», Confidence: HIGH).
  • Ukrainian forces have repelled 6 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction. (FACT, Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • A UAV is reported on the north of Sumy region, heading towards Chernihiv region. (FACT, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • UAF Air Force reports launches of КАБ on Sumy Oblast. (FACT, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares drone footage of the "Steel Border" brigade of the State Border Guard Service operating in Sumy Oblast, showing successful engagements against Russian forces in wooded areas, preventing them from approaching the contact line. (FACT, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Confidence: HIGH).
• Krasnodar Krai, RF: Fire reported at an electrical substation in Staroderevyankovskaya village, Kanevsky district, due to falling UAV debris. Multiple reports and video indicate drone attacks also targeting Slavyansk-on-Kuban, with damage and a grass fire. UAF Defense Forces (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) claim to have struck the Kanevskaya substation. (FACT, ТАСС, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
• Yaroslavl, RF: Airport operations were temporarily restricted and then lifted. UAF Defense Forces claim strikes on enemy energy facilities in Yaroslavl, indicating the airport restrictions were likely related to a UAF drone attack. (FACT, ТАСС, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
• Ivanovo, RF: Ivanovo airport was temporarily closed for arrivals and departures, then lifted. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
• Volgograd, RF: Restrictions on flights have been lifted. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
• Rostov Oblast, RF: Governor Slyusar reports a massive UAV attack was repelled in Taganrog and three districts of Rostov Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a threat of ballistic missile launches from Taganrog. (FACT, ТАСС, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • One of the deputy directors of the Ministry of Transport's security department in Rostov Oblast has been detained in a bribery case. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • The court transferred ownership of JSC "Rostovvodokanal" to the Russian Federation. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
• Belgorod Oblast, RF: Governor Gladkov reports 3 fatalities and 10 wounded due to UAF attacks. Two people were injured due to a UAF UAV detonating near the city administration building in Belgorod. ASTRA reports a second drone attack. TASS and ASTRA report 28 Ukrainian drones were destroyed over Belgorod Oblast. Sever.Realii confirms two injured in Belgorod attack. Two children were wounded in Belgorod district as a result of drone attack, an operator of a Ukrainian UAV aimed it at a civilian car. (FACT, ТАСС, ASTRA, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Операция Z, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Sever.Realii, Kotsnews, Confidence: HIGH).
  • RF MoD reports 13 Ukrainian drones destroyed over Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts between 12:00 and 15:00 MSK. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports 4 wounded in Belgorod Oblast, two of them children, due to UAF attacks. This is an update to previous reports of 2 children wounded. (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Colonelcassad reports a drone attack on a vehicle with children in Belgorod Oblast, reiterating the narrative of UAF civilian targeting. (FACT, Colonelcassad, Confidence: HIGH).
  • UAF Air Force reports a threat of ballistic missile launches from Kursk. (FACT, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
• Bryansk Oblast, RF: Russian MoD reports 7 UAF UAVs intercepted and destroyed over Bryansk Oblast overnight. (FACT, AV БогомаZ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • AV БогомаZ shares images of a formal meeting discussing the "Clean Country" federal project, indicating non-military internal administrative focus. (FACT, AV БогомаZ, Confidence: HIGH).
• Donetsk Oblast, RF (Occupied): Colonelcassad shares drone footage of damaged buildings and equipment. RF is shelling Horlivka, DNR. (FACT, Colonelcassad, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH). RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Dobropillya, Druzhkivka, Kostyantynivka of Donetsk region. (FACT, Liveuamap Source, General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Mash na Donbasse shares video of a gas station on fire after a drone strike in Severodonetsk. (FACT, Mash на Донбассе, Confidence: HIGH).
  • A drone is reported on the north of Donetsk region, heading south, towards Novodonetsky district. (FACT, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of a fuel station engulfed in flames in occupied Severodonetsk, with firefighters present. The caption suggests a drone hit a military truck at the station. (FACT, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Confidence: HIGH).
• Samara Oblast, RF: ASTRA reports that all 4 fatalities in Samara Oblast from the September 20 drone attack were employees of the oil production company "RITEK-Samara-Nafta." (FACT, ASTRA, Confidence: HIGH).
• Leningrad Oblast, RF: TASS reports law enforcement detained a St. Petersburg resident who organized the arson of a cell tower in Toksovo, Leningrad Oblast on September 1. (FACT, ТАСС, Kotsnews, Confidence: HIGH).
• General Infrastructure: RF source reports a bridge destruction, location unknown (LOW - details not provided). (FACT, Colonelcassad, Confidence: LOW - details not provided).
• New RF Technology: RF is reporting successful testing of a "Posokh" laser mine-clearing system. Engineers from RF's "Vostok" grouping claim to have re-programmed a captured UAF "Baba Yaga" drone. RF is deploying "Hortenzia" drones, equipped with grenade launchers, for remote attacks on UAF. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares images of a "Molniya" UAV reportedly repurposed by RF as a "mother drone" for FPV drones, indicating continued RF innovation in drone warfare. (FACT, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Confidence: HIGH).
• RF Drone Interception: Colonelcassad claims a Russian drone-interceptor successfully intercepted Ukrainian UAVs. Video shows aerial footage of a destroyed village attributed to the 98th Airborne Division (VDV). Colonelcassad posts a video claiming drone operators of the 1466th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment are shooting down enemy agricultural drones. (FACT, Colonelcassad, Confidence: HIGH).
• RF Advances (Lyman Direction): TASS reports Marochko claims RF Armed Forces improved their position near Yampol, DPR, and Kremenna, LPR, over the week. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports that the liberation of Kalynivske and RF advances on the border of DNR, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts are forcing Kyiv to send reserves to this direction, thereby exposing other front sections. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
• RF General Overview: Rybar provides a "Chronicle of the SMO for September 20-21." "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares a "Good morning!" message. WarGonzo provides a "Frontline summary for the morning of 22.09.25" with updated maps. Arkhangel Spetsnaza also posts a "Good morning" message. (FACT, Рыбарь, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, WarGonzo, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Confidence: HIGH - of claim).
  • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 publishes a summary of a new RF Ministry of Defense briefing. (FACT, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Fighterbomber provides an "IMMEDIATE ASSESSMENT," suggesting significant new information is forthcoming from RF. Fighterbomber also shares a video of a Ka-52 helicopter escorting a civilian convoy, captioned "Traffic control." (FACT, Fighterbomber, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Басурин о главном shares a video of Putin discussing strategic threats, stating "RF is ready to respond to any strategic threats, not in words, but with military-technical measures." (FACT, Басурин о главном, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports a summary of current events, including Putin's statements on New START, autumn conscription, liberation of Kalynivske, damage from UAF attack on Foros, and a bill on mortgage holidays. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Kotsnews shares a video on what Putin hinted at during the Security Council meeting, focusing on strategic stability and the New START treaty. (FACT, Kotsnews, Confidence: HIGH).
  • WarGonzo shares a video on RF transitioning to electronic conscription and key decisions for the Autumn 2025 campaign. (FACT, WarGonzo, Confidence: HIGH).
• RF Claims on UAF Situational Awareness: TASS reports a deputy commander of RF's 35th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade claims UAF did not know for at least a week about RF forces entering Muravka (LOW - verification). TASS shares video of Commander Rakushev discussing an ambush for UAF near Muravka, Donetsk People's Republic (DPR). (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH - of claim).
• UAF General Staff Report on RF Losses: UAF General Staff provides updated estimated combat losses for RF personnel and equipment up to 22 SEP 25. UAF General Staff provides an operational summary and maps for 22.09.2025 (08:00), detailing combat engagements. UAF General Staff confirms 132 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed. (FACT, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the General Staff claims the UAF destroyed two enemy UAV and ammunition depots. (FACT, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • UAF General Staff provides an updated operational summary as of 16:00 22.09.2025, detailing recent Russian invasion activities. (FACT, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares multiple photos of soldiers in training with various weapons, both Ukrainian and foreign, new and old, to demonstrate readiness and training. (FACT, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
• UA Channel Reporting on RF Losses: "Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"" reports at least 6899 RF officers "demobilized" (killed/wounded) as of 21 SEP 25. UAF Air Force reports 132/141 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed, including 80 Shaheds. A UAF video shows leafleting by RF representatives from the air. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts an image claiming "successfully demobilized" RF personnel. UAF shot down a "Geran" (Shahed) drone. (FACT, Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц", Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Confidence: HIGH).
• Fighterbomber (RF): Posts a "Good morning, country!" message. Fighterbomber provides a military weekly summary. Fighterbomber reports that Putin will make important statements at an operational meeting with Security Council members. (FACT, Fighterbomber, Confidence: HIGH).
• Kryvyi Rih: The situation in Kryvyi Rih is reported as controlled. Over 1 million free food kits distributed. Curfew changed to 24:00 - 05:00. (FACT, Олександр Вілкул, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Oleksandr Vilkul shares photos of underground educational hubs being created in Kryvyi Rih, showing efforts to protect children during education. (FACT, Олександр Вілкул, Confidence: HIGH).
• UAF Deep Strike in Crimea (Naval Amphibious Aircraft): UAF GUR "Ghosts" special unit successfully struck two Russian Be-12 "Chaika" amphibious aircraft and one Mi-8 helicopter in occupied Crimea. ASTRA also confirms. БУТУСУ ПЛЮС provides video evidence from the GUR "Prymary" unit. Николаевский Ванёк also provides video of the aftermath of a helicopter crash. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of the aftermath. (FACT, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO, ASTRA, БУТУСУ ПЛЮС, Николаевский Ванёк, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video displaying wreckage of at least two aircraft, including a heavily damaged Mi-24 attack helicopter, in Crimea, corroborating the GUR strike. (FACT, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Confidence: HIGH).
• Non-Military News: Various non-military news items from both sides (e.g., crime, weather, cultural events, political congratulations, economic reports) are present but are not directly relevant to military operations. (FACT, ТАСС, Новости Москвы, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Старше Эдды, Alex Parker Returns, Два майора, Mash на Донбассе, Север.Реалії, Басурин о главном, Военкор Котенок, Офіс Генерального прокурора, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, РБК-Україна, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Север.Реалії reports a mobilized soldier's mother detained at a picket in Moscow has been out of contact for a day, highlighting concerns about dissent suppression. (FACT, Север.Реалії, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports a market mortgage revival and growth in auto lending in Russia, suggesting some economic stabilization. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports a former head of Ples city, Alexey Shevtsov, had 1 billion rubles seized, indicating ongoing anti-corruption efforts or politically motivated actions. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report a former State Security Administration (UGO) employee who killed a teenager on the funicular in Kyiv was sentenced to life imprisonment, addressing a high-profile domestic crime. (FACT, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH). The Prosecutor General of Ukraine, Ruslan Kravchenko, provided additional commentary on the case, emphasizing the severe nature of the crime and the pursuit of justice. (FACT, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Полиция Хабаровского края shares video of a formal arrival of dignitaries at an airport, potentially indicating a high-level visit or diplomatic event. (FACT, Полиция Хабаровского края, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Новости Москвы shares a promotional video for "Grow Food" delivery, demonstrating civilian commercial activity. (FACT, Новости Москвы, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ТАСС reports the former wife of Sverdlovsk Vice-Governor Oleg Chemezov, Irina Chemezova, denies guilt under house arrest, indicating ongoing internal legal/political issues. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Два майора reports the detention of former State Duma deputy and ex-deputy chairman of the Crimean Council of Ministers, Ruslan Balbek. (FACT, Два майора, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Colonelcassad shares an image related to "why the Interior Minister of Britain became a Pakistani," a potentially inflammatory social/political commentary. (FACT, Colonelcassad, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Новости Москвы shares a video demonstrating a new iOS feature allowing users to scroll with their tongue and like with lip movements. This is entirely civilian in nature. (FACT, Новости Москвы, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ТАСС reports on the top 7 types of fraud schemes on free classified ad platforms, indicating general law enforcement concerns. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ТАСС shares a photo and report that Trump will approve a TikTok deal with ByteDance this week, a civilian-political-business development. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ reports that a new bipartisan bill on confiscation of frozen RF assets has been submitted to the US Senate for consideration. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports that Britain has lifted sanctions on Vladimir Evtushenkov's daughter, Tatiana Evtushenkova. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports that Charles de Gaulle's grandson, Pierre de Gaulle, made an ironic comment about Kyiv imposing sanctions on him. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Alex Parker Returns shares information about the Palestinian Embassy in London being upgraded and flags being raised, claiming Ukraine opened a Palestinian embassy in 2001. This is a subtle attempt to draw parallels or discredit Ukrainian foreign policy. (FACT, Alex Parker Returns, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports FIS will consider the participation of Russian athletes in the Olympics on September 23. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports a train fire in Kuban was preliminarily caused by a short circuit. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports a former Deputy Governor of Yugra, Shipilov, was placed under house arrest until November 14, 2025, in a bribery case. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports an explosion at a wholesale trade base in Demre, Turkey. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Север.Реалії reports that a court has refused to toughen sentences for Navalny's lawyers, indicating ongoing legal processes concerning political opposition figures. (FACT, Север.Реалії, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ТАСС reports on a judicial decision prohibiting three former Navalny lawyers from practicing law for 3 years, after being included in Russia's list of terrorists and extremists. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ASTRA shares a photo message that a former customs colonel, sentenced to 10 years for bribery, has gone to war, highlighting a societal issue with potential military impact. (FACT, ASTRA, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Новости Москвы reports heating in social facilities in the Moscow region will start on Tuesday, and in residential buildings in a week, indicating seasonal preparations. (FACT, Новости Москвы, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports discussions between Lavrov and US officials are being worked out for the UN General Assembly. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports visa issuance for the Russian delegation to the UN General Assembly is ongoing, with not all visas yet received. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
• Commemoration: UAF channels are displaying graphics and videos for a daily 09:00 minute of silence to commemorate fallen defenders. Serhii Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk OVA shares a video emphasizing empathy, showing a Ukrainian soldier in rehabilitation. Kyiv. Khreshchatyk will be blocked daily during the minute of silence. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), РБК-Україна, Confidence: HIGH).
• Internal UAF Corruption: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports specialized defense prosecutors are systematically exposing and prosecuting individuals involved in corruption schemes, draft evasion, and illegal border crossings. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the SBU detained FSB agents who were supplying Ukrainian SIM cards to Russian kamikaze drones. In Lviv, a college lecturer organized a scheme for draft evasion. (FACT, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports on a priest being caught for accepting $10,000 to consecrate a draft dodger as a deacon to avoid mobilization. (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH).
• UAF Digital System: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ and Оперативний ЗСУ report the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine is deploying a digital military accounting system "Impulse." (FACT, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України reports that the command of the Airborne Assault Troops (DSHV) has responded to accusations regarding the creation of assault troops. (FACT, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ shares a recruitment video encouraging Ukrainians to choose a military branch and specialty via army.gov.ua, suggesting ongoing recruitment efforts. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
• UAF Deep Strike on S-400: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Special Operations Forces (SSO) struck a Russian S-400 "Triumph" air defense system in Kaluga Oblast. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Confidence: HIGH).
• UAF Training: Ukrainian Naval Infantry (ВМС ЗСУ) conducting training exercises, focusing on crossing water obstacles. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • РБК-Україна reports that Poland and Sweden have for the first time in history started military exercises in the Baltic Sea. (FACT, РБК-Україна, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ reports Poland and Sweden are conducting joint exercises in the Baltic Sea, quoting the Polish Minister of Defense. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares multiple photos of soldiers in training with various weapons, both Ukrainian and foreign, new and old, to demonstrate readiness and training. (FACT, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
• Poland Airspace: Poland does not intend to shoot down objects violating its airspace on its own, - Tusk. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Colonelcassad reports that Poland has once again acknowledged that no combat drones were found on its territory, only empty decoy drones, implying Russian denial of offensive intent. (FACT, Colonelcassad, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Peskov denies accusations of Estonian airspace violation, calling them "empty and baseless." (FACT, Север.Реалії, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ASTRA reports that Poland will shoot down any objects violating its airspace, but only "if they are completely clear." This contradicts a previous report about Tusk's statement. (FACT, ASTRA, Confidence: HIGH).
• UAF Advance Dobropillya direction: ЗСУ просуваються на Добропільському напрямку, звільнено вже 164,5 кв. км, - Сирський. (FACT, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
• RF Statement on Strategic Stability: Putin instructed to carefully monitor the build-up of US missile defense components and stated that the situation in strategic stability continues to degrade. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video of Putin speaking on strategic planning, tracking US anti-missile systems, and emphasizing a defensive posture, confirming previous TASS reports. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Rybar shares video of Putin speaking at a Security Council meeting, discussing strategic stability, the New START treaty, and concerns about Western actions, reinforcing the previous TASS report. (FACT, Рыбарь, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports that Russia's decision to adhere to New START limits for a year after its expiration reflects a balanced and constructive approach by the country's leadership, according to Slutsky. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
• RF Northern Fleet Exercise: Northern Fleet's nuclear-powered cruise missile submarine Arkhangelsk hit target simulating surface ship of mock enemy in Sea of Barents. (FACT, MoD Russia, Confidence: HIGH).
• RF Intermediate-Range Missiles: Putin announced Russia will deploy intermediate-range missiles and abandon moratorium. (FACT, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
• Uman Rosh Hashanah Celebration: Оперативний ЗСУ shares video from Uman during Rosh Hashanah, with individuals making anti-Putin statements, indicating local sentiment amidst the conflict. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
• RF-EU Dialogue: TASS reports the Director of the Department of International Organizations of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kirill Logvinov, states there are no prerequisites for a substantive dialogue between Russia and the EU at the moment. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
• RF Military Celebrations: Воин DV shares photos of solemn events at the 40th Separate Guards Krasnodar-Kharbin Twice Red Banner Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet in Kamchatka, celebrating its 107th anniversary, indicating morale-boosting activities within the RF military. (FACT, Воин DV, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Воин DV shares photo messages promoting "Отряд Ковпака," indicating continued efforts to boost morale and recruit support for various RF-aligned units. (FACT, Воин DV, Confidence: HIGH).
• UAF POW/MIA Support: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими reports a meeting with families of servicemen from the 225th Separate Assault Battalion, part of the 115th Separate Mechanized Brigade, addressing support for military families. (FACT, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Confidence: HIGH).
• Estonia NATO/UN Request: Estonia has called for an emergency NATO meeting and a UN Security Council meeting at its request. (FACT, Colonelcassad, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ASTRA reports that the mother of a mobilized soldier, who was detained near the Ministry of Defense building, has been out of contact for a day. (FACT, ASTRA, Confidence: HIGH).
  • РБК-Україна reports a "bunker boom" in Germany after "Shaheds" in Poland, highlighting increased civilian anxiety in NATO states regarding potential spillover effects. (FACT, РБК-Україна, Confidence: HIGH).
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares multiple photo messages with no caption, but they likely relate to ongoing events or commentary within their channel. (FACT, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares photo messages about the "trajectory of lies" of Russian Z-bloggers, highlighting their shifting narratives about the war and the need for more mobilization. This is a UAF information operation. (FACT, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Николаевский Ванёк shares a link to a bank for donations, indicating ongoing UAF fundraising efforts. (FACT, Николаевский Ванёк, Confidence: HIGH).
• Hungary's Position: TASS reports that Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó states that NATO countries' calls for a more aggressive response to airspace violations lead to further escalation. He also hopes there will be no escalation between NATO and Russia in the future. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
• RF EOD Operations: MoD Russia shares a video of the Zapad Group's 92nd EOD regiment defusing AFU explosives in liberated territories in the Lugansk People's Republic. (FACT, MoD Russia, Confidence: HIGH).
• Alex Parker Returns' Disinformation: Alex Parker Returns shares a photo with the caption "Military dictator Zelensky submitted a bill that will allow him to use the Armed Forces abroad, in other states. The most obvious direction for the use of the Armed Forces abroad is Moldova. What a twist!" This is a clear example of RF disinformation. (FACT, Alex Parker Returns, Confidence: HIGH).
• ASTRA Reports on Convicted Murderer in RF Military: ASTRA reports that a participant in the invasion of Ukraine, previously convicted of murder, was awarded in Oryol Oblast. (FACT, ASTRA, Confidence: HIGH).
• UAF Donkey "Trophy": БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video humorously titled "Equipment of the 'second army of the world': the first trophy donkey!", depicting a UAF soldier with a donkey. (FACT, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Confidence: HIGH).
• Zelenskyy's Bill on UAF Overseas Deployment: РБК-Україна reports that Zelenskyy proposed to the Rada to allow the deployment of Ukrainian Navy units abroad. (FACT, РБК-Україна, Confidence: HIGH).
• RF Sanctions Evasion: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Russia wants to achieve a softening of sanctions on its aviation industry through the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), given that existing restrictions have jeopardized flight safety, according to Reuters. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (Confidence: HIGH)

Current conditions are generally clear and favorable for air operations across most of Ukraine, but a cold snap is expected, with wet snow possible in Moscow by end of week. A cold front is moving into the Carpathians with temperatures dropping to -2°C, and snow is possible soon. The strongest geomagnetic storm in 3 months (G3) continues to impact satellite communications and GPS for both sides. TASS reports that the number of solar flares will continue to grow, potentially impacting satellite communication and GPS. Thermal imagery from RF drone footage north of Chasiv Yar indicates low temperatures (-7.5°C to -12.7°C), necessitating thermal optics for detection. Temporary restrictions on air traffic at Sochi airport were lifted.

Key Updates:

• Geomagnetic Storm: The G3 geomagnetic storm continues to impact satellite communications and GPS for both sides. TASS reports that the number of solar flares will continue to grow, potentially impacting satellite communication and GPS. (FACT, Previous Report, TASS, Confidence: HIGH). A double emission of large prominences occurred on the Sun during the eclipse, passing planetary orbits (no military relevance). (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
• Thermal Imagery in Drone Footage: Colonelcassad's video shows drone footage from a thermal imager documenting engagements in a winter environment north of Chasov Yar, suggesting low temperatures. RF "Sever V" unit is actively utilizing thermal-equipped drones. TASS video featuring an RF FPV drone operator discusses intensive use of FPV drones in combat, including thermal imagery footage. Colonelcassad's new videos on RF ground operations highlight the use of FPV drones by both sides and the challenges of night operations due to enemy drones. Colonelcassad's new video claiming drone operators of the 1466th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment are shooting down enemy agricultural drones appears to be low-light or thermal imagery. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition and Старше Эдды's video also appears to include thermal imagery drone footage. Оперативний ЗСУ's video of the "Sapsan" battalion also uses thermal imaging. Alex Parker Returns shares thermal imagery drone footage. MoD Russia also shares footage consistent with thermal or night vision use during combat operations in Olhivske. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Kotsnews share a video with first-person perspective footage through a forested area with defensive trench lines, possibly taken with thermal or night vision. MoD Russia shares a video of a TOS-1A Solntsepyok system in use, likely in a thermal/night vision mode. Бутусов Плюс shares a drone video with thermal imaging or night vision to identify and engage RF infantry. Colonelcassad's "Donbas" video uses drone footage and thermal imaging. Олексій Білошицький (UAF source) shares drone video of Zaporizhzhia aftermath, likely using night vision or thermal. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Ukrainian Marine Corps heavy unmanned systems operators working at night. (FACT, Colonelcassad, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, TASS, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Старше Эдды, Оперативний ЗСУ, Alex Parker Returns, MoD Russia, Kotsnews, БУТУСУ ПЛЮС, Олексій Білошицький, Confidence: HIGH).
• Ongoing Drone Activity: UAF Air Force reports continuous UAV activity across various regions, with a new drone group from Kherson Oblast heading towards Mykolaiv and multiple groups heading towards Kyiv. RF Governor Slyusar's report of a "massive UAV attack repelled" in Taganrog and Rostov Oblast indicates widespread drone activity. UAF Air Force reports 141 enemy UAVs, including 80 Shaheds, were launched overnight, with 132 shot down/suppressed. This indicates a significant increase in the scale of RF drone attacks. Operatsiya Z reports 'Geran' drones (Shaheds) hit a UAF 156th Brigade deployment point. Басурин о главном shares a video of the aftermath of a drone attack in Donetsk, which RF attributes to UAF drones. Operatyvny ZSU reports the SBU detained FSB agents who were supplying Ukrainian SIM cards to Russian kamikaze drones. "Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН "Ахмат" video shows drone surveillance in Sumy Oblast. UAF shot down a "Geran" (Shahed) drone. Sil'y Oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny reports 19 Shahed-136 drones were destroyed in the southern regions during the past day. Colonelcassad reports 114 Ukrainian UAVs of airplane type were intercepted and destroyed overnight by air defense. RF tactical aviation activity reported in the southeastern direction. Narodnaya miliiya DNR shares video of the 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment shooting down UAF drones. Kotsnews shares video of a Russian drone operator not engaging Ukrainian humanitarian workers. Операция Z and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS share video of a "Geran" drone strike on a Ukrainian oil depot. A UAV is reported on the north of Sumy region, heading towards Chernihiv region. (FACT, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Николаевский Ванёк, РБК-Україна, TASS, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Басурин о главном, «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат», Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц", Сили оборони Півдня України, Colonelcassad, Народная милиция ДНР, Kotsnews, Confidence: HIGH).
  • RF MoD reports 13 Ukrainian drones destroyed over Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts between 12:00 and 15:00 MSK. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Mash na Donbasse shares video of a gas station on fire after a drone strike in Severodonetsk, indicating persistent drone activity impacting infrastructure. (FACT, Mash на Донбассе, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Kotsnews shares thermal imagery footage showing a Ukrainian hexacopter drone (R-18/LF240) being targeted and struck on the Kramatorsk-Druzhkovsk direction. This confirms continued RF counter-UAV operations. (FACT, Kotsnews, Confidence: HIGH).
  • A drone is reported on the north of Donetsk region, heading south. (FACT, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern direction and launches of КАБ in Donetsk Oblast. (FACT, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video captured by a Ukrainian firefighter showing a Russian "Shahed" drone hitting an oil depot just meters away. This is critical for assessing RF's ability to penetrate air defenses and the immediate dangers faced by emergency services. (FACT, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Confidence: HIGH).
  • A new drone group is reported in Kharkiv Oblast, heading towards Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. (FACT, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
• Aviation Restrictions in Sochi/Volgograd/Yaroslavl/Ivanovo: Temporary restrictions on air traffic were imposed in Sochi, Volgograd, Yaroslavl, and Ivanovo, then lifted. UAF claims strikes on energy facilities in Yaroslavl, indicating airport restrictions were likely related to a UAF drone attack. About 60 flights are delayed at Sochi airport, and two flights from Moscow have been canceled. (FACT, TASS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
• Air Raid Siren in Sevastopol: Colonelcassad posts a video of an air raid siren warning and instructions for civilians in Sevastopol. (FACT, Colonelcassad, Confidence: HIGH).
• Weather Forecast: A cold snap is expected in Ukraine in the coming days. Wet snow is possible in Moscow and the Moscow region by the end of the week. (FACT, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, Новости Москвы, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Новости Москвы reports heating in social facilities in the Moscow region will start on Tuesday, and in residential buildings in a week, indicating seasonal preparations. (FACT, Новости Москвы, Confidence: HIGH).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (Confidence: HIGH)

RF Forces:

• Offensive Posture: RF maintains offensive pressure on multiple axes, with confirmed gains in Berëzovoye, Kalynivske (Dnipropetropavsk Oblast), and claims of advancing in Volchansk, Kupiansk, Gulyaipole, Serebryansky forestry, Novoekonomichne, and Romanivka. RF is also consolidating positions and supporting offensives beyond Chasiv Yar. RF claims significant success for its "Center" and "East" force groups. RF is conducting offensive operations in Sumy Oblast and assaulting Shandryholove and Serednye towards Lyman. RF drone operators from the 35th Army are actively conducting strikes, and video from "🅾️тважные" (RF unit) shows active burning of UAF equipment and positions at Pokrovsk day and night. RF troops are gradually advancing northeast of Gulyaipole. RF "Sever V" unit is actively engaged in suppressing UAF counterattacks and supporting RF advances near Chasiv Yar. TASS reports an RF assault trooper, 'Pastukh,' claims to have single-handedly captured a UAF strongpoint in Kamenskoye. RF MoD claims TOS-1A "Solntsepek" systems destroyed UAF strongpoints in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Colonelcassad reports 'Sparta' unit destroyed three UAF UAV control points in Dimitrov. TASS reports Marochko claims RF improved positions near Yampol and Kremenna. TASS reports RF forces have taken a large UAF logistics hub in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast into a "semi-encirclement." Rybar provides an operational overview for Sep 20-21. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" channel's posts suggest routine operational readiness or morale boosting within RF airborne units. Fighterbomber also posts a "Good morning" message. RF claims UAF was unable to liberate encircled brigades in Kharkiv, retreating with losses. WarGonzo reports RF advances in several sectors. RF 1st Tank Army FPV drone operators claim a successful ambush near Borova. RF media also reports on the Kupiansk direction. "Воин DV" (5th Army, "Vostok" Group) claims continued offensive from liberated Novoivanivka and Olhivske. Colonelcassad reports detailed operations by various RF units, including the 36th Motor Rifle Brigade, 29th Army, and 114th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition and Старше Эдды share video evidence of ground operations and captured UAF equipment in Olhivske. MoD Russia also shares details on the liberation of Olgovskoye (Olhivske). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF left dozens of bodies of fellow servicemen in Olhivske, Zaporizhzhia direction (LOW - RF claim, unverified). STERNENKO reports RF has intensified assault actions in the responsibility area of the 7th Corps of the Airborne Assault Troops and is trying to block logistical routes. The "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" channel shares an image of a military map with red lines and arrows, indicating RF troop movements on the Lyman direction. "Два майора" is fundraising for assault troops on the Slavyansk direction. Воин DV claims that the "Vostok" Group of Forces liberated another settlement in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast (Kalynivske). MoD Russia shares a video of a TOS-1A Solntsepyok heavy flamethrower system smashing a stronghold of the AFU near Chervonoye, Zaporozhye region. Бутусов Плюс shares a video depicting RF infantry being engaged by UAF, with an explosion and vehicle destruction. Narodnaya miliiya DNR shares video of the 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment shooting down UAF drones over Nova Poltavka and Poltavka. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares video of RF special forces using motorcycles for rapid assault on a fortified UAF position. Архангел Спецназа and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 post maps indicating RF control or areas of operation in the Pokrovsk and Kupiansk directions respectively. (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, TASS, Colonelcassad, Рыбарь, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Fighterbomber, WarGonzo, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Два майора, Воин DV, Старше Эдды, MoD Russia, STERNENKO, Сливочный каприз, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, БУТУСУ ПЛЮС, Народная милиция ДНР, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Kadyrov_95 shares video of FPV drone attacks by the Sheikh Mansur rifle battalion on Ukrainian military positions and equipment in the Kharkiv direction, demonstrating continued localized offensive actions. (FACT, Kadyrov_95, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Народная милиция ДНР shares video of the 'Metis' crew of the 238th Brigade targeting and eliminating UAF infantry in Stepanivka. (FACT, Народная милиция ДНР, Confidence: HIGH).
  • STERNENKO shares drone footage showing UAF attacks on RF military vehicles, targeting RF logistics on the Pokrovsk direction. (FACT, STERNENKO, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports that the liberation of Kalynivske and RF advances on the border of DNR, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts are forcing Kyiv to send reserves to this direction, thereby exposing other front sections. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Kotsnews shares video from the "liberation of Muravka," featuring RF assault troopers discussing tactical movements, minefields, and the engagement of fortified positions, indicating active ground operations and infantry advances. Another Kotsnews video shows an RF soldier discussing night operations due to UAF aerial surveillance. (FACT, Kotsnews, Confidence: HIGH).
  • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a highly-pixelated and distorted video with explosions, captioned "Froze? We'll warm you up!", implying aggressive combat action by RF special forces. (FACT, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Colonelcassad is organizing a fundraiser for "assault troopers and scouts operating in the South Donetsk direction," appealing for drones, anti-drone equipment, and thermal imagers, indicating ongoing materiel needs for this axis. The associated video shows soldiers in military gear. (FACT, Colonelcassad, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) shares drone footage of Ukrainian combatants reportedly detonating on mines in Stepanivka on the Konstantinovka direction, implying successful RF mine-laying or UAF operational errors. (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH).
• Air Activity: RF tactical aviation is launching guided aerial bombs (КАБ) towards northern Kharkiv Oblast and Sumy/Donetsk Oblasts. RF UAVs are operating north of Chernihiv and are inbound towards/through Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetropavsk Oblasts. RF is utilizing drones equipped with thermal imagers to target UAF infantry, and is actively engaging UAF drones. Multiple new groups of strike UAVs are active. 10 Shaheds reported inbound to Brovary. Remaining RF Shaheds are heading towards Kyiv Oblast from northern/northeastern directions. RF reports a Ka-52M helicopter crew destroyed three drones with "Igla" missiles. An RF "Orlan-10" UAV crew reportedly assisted in destroying a UAF deployment point. RF sources are claiming attacks on Patriot air defense systems near Kyiv. Colonelcassad reports a Russian drone-interceptor successfully shot down Ukrainian UAVs. A TASS video features an RF FPV drone operator for the 'Dnepr' troop grouping discussing intensive use of 40 FPV drones. The Sumy OVA head reports missile strikes (2 cruise) alongside a Shahed drone. RF MoD claims 114 UAF UAVs intercepted overnight. STERNENKO (UAF-aligned) reports RF used КАБ in the Zaporizhzhia attack. Operatsiya Z and Poddubny report two injured from a UAF drone detonating near the Belgorod city administration. UAF Air Force reports 141 enemy UAVs, including 80 Shaheds, were launched overnight, with 132 shot down/suppressed. Operatsiya Z reports 'Geran' drones hit a UAF 156th Brigade deployment point. TASS reports destruction of an ammunition depot and two UAF robotic platforms. Воин DV shares video of RF Aerospace Forces (VKS RF) at work. RF is deploying "Hortenzia" drones, equipped with grenade launchers. RF tactical aviation activity reported in the southeastern direction. RF launched a missile strike on Bobrivka, Kharkiv district. Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast amid ballistic missile threat, identified as air defense activity. Операция Z and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS share video of a "Geran" drone strike on a Ukrainian oil depot. (FACT, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Николаевский Ванёк, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Colonelcassad, TASS, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, АSTRA, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Воин DV, Confidence: HIGH).
  • RF MoD reports 13 Ukrainian drones destroyed over Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts between 12:00 and 15:00 MSK, indicating continued active air defense operations. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Два майора shares video of an alleged UAF military convoy being destroyed by an aerial attack, indicating RF air-to-ground strike capabilities. (FACT, Два майора, Confidence: HIGH).
  • A drone is reported on the north of Donetsk region, heading south. (FACT, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern direction and launches of КАБ in Donetsk Oblast. (FACT, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video captured by a Ukrainian firefighter showing a Russian "Shahed" drone hitting an oil depot just meters away. This is critical for assessing RF's ability to penetrate air defenses. (FACT, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Два майора shares video claiming a "Geran-3" reactive UAV attacked an oil depot in Bakhmach, Chernihiv Oblast. The video depicts a large fire and smoke plume. (FACT, Два майора, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Fighterbomber shares a video of a Ka-52 helicopter escorting a civilian convoy, captioned "Traffic control," implying RF air support for internal security/logistics. (FACT, Fighterbomber, Confidence: HIGH).
  • A new drone group is reported in Kharkiv Oblast, heading towards Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. (FACT, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
• Logistics & Sustainment: RF frontline units continue to rely on a mix of state and non-governmental aid. Severe localized logistics issues were reported in Sumy Oblast due to UAF FPV drone activity. RF is actively recruiting foreign nationals. Fundraising efforts by various pro-RF military bloggers indicate persistent financial and materiel needs at the unit level. RF reports successful testing of a "Posokh" laser mine-clearing system. RF cabinet has supported a bill to strip acquired RF citizenship from draft evaders. RBK-Ukraine reports a signal from Moscow to limit funding for occupied territories of Ukraine. The captured RF soldier's video implies severe logistical and medical supply issues. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's fundraising appeal confirms ongoing materiel needs. Colonelcassad's reports describe RF soldiers overcoming logistical challenges. A UAF video shows a soldier struggling to obtain clean water near Pokrovsk, implying that RF is successfully disrupting UAF access to resources. Operatyvny ZSU reports the SBU detained FSB agents who were supplying Ukrainian SIM cards to Russian kamikaze drones, highlighting an RF logistical dependency on Ukrainian infrastructure for drone operations. "Два майора" is fundraising for assault troops on the Slavyansk direction. Colonelcassad is organizing a fundraiser for the "Autumn-Winter Campaign 2025". (FACT, TASS, РБК-Україна, Полиция Хабаровского края, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Fighterbomber, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Colonelcassad, БУТУСУ ПЛЮС, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора, Confidence: MEDIUM).
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video report from a Russian serviceman claiming that for 4 consecutive days, his comrades have been detonating on mines remotely dropped by Ukrainian heavy drones on RF logistical routes, indicating significant and persistent logistical disruptions. (FACT, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • STERNENKO shares drone footage showing UAF attacks on RF military vehicles and personnel on the Pokrovsk direction, emphasizing continued pressure on RF logistics. (FACT, STERNENKO, Confidence: HIGH).
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of a fuel station engulfed in flames in occupied Severodonetsk, with firefighters present. The caption suggests a drone hit a military truck at the station, indicating a potential logistical setback for RF in occupied territories. (FACT, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Операция Z shares a Politico article suggesting Russia can obtain US aircraft parts through Belarus, highlighting potential circumvention of sanctions and sustainment strategies. (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH).
  • STERNENKO reports that the USA is trying to block the supply of aircraft parts to Russia via Belavia, confirming the strategic importance of this logistical pathway. (FACT, STERNENKO, Confidence: HIGH).
  • RF is attempting to soften sanctions on its aviation industry through ICAO, indicating sustained pressure on aviation logistics. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
• Personnel: General-Colonel Alexander Lapin has been dismissed from military service. RF continues to promote youth militarization programs and recruit individuals with criminal backgrounds. Khabarovsk Krai police are actively recruiting for various civilian law enforcement positions. TASS reports on signs of extremism influencing teenagers. TASS reports Igor Marochko's claim of Kiev losing ~4,500 soldiers and mercenaries in Luhansk Oblast in a week. TASS reports five UAF servicemen surrendered to the Russian army in Sumy Oblast. A captured RF soldier's video from the Pokrovsk direction indicates significant morale issues. РБК-Україна reports RF soldiers near Pokrovsk are complaining about "meat assaults." TASS reports that citizens of Belarus are among the injured in the UAF drone attack in Crimea. (FACT, Полиция Хабаровского края, TASS, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, РБК-Україна, Confidence: HIGH). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) share a video discussing the Autumn conscription campaign in Russia, noting 160,000 conscripts for Spring 2025 and 12-month service. All conscripts drafted in the fall of 2025 will serve only on Russian territory. (FACT, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Север.Реалії reports a mobilized soldier's mother detained at a picket in Moscow, has been out of contact for a day, potentially indicating a crackdown on dissent or internal security issues affecting military families. (FACT, Север.Реалії, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ASTRA reports that the mother of a mobilized soldier, who was detained near the Ministry of Defense building, has been out of contact for a day, highlighting internal pressures. (FACT, ASTRA, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Операция Z reports on a priest being caught for accepting $10,000 to consecrate a draft dodger as a deacon to avoid mobilization, highlighting internal UAF issues that RF may exploit. (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ASTRA shares a photo message that a former customs colonel, sentenced to 10 years for bribery, has gone to war, highlighting a societal issue with potential military impact. (FACT, ASTRA, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ASTRA reports that an invasion participant previously convicted of murder was awarded in Oryol Oblast. (FACT, ASTRA, Confidence: HIGH).
• Command & Control: Despite tactical confusion in some areas, strategic C2 remains centralized. Targeting of UAF C2 assets (antennas, drones) is evident in Pokrovsk. Localized C2 responses to UAF drone attacks in Crimea are observed. The ongoing restrictions at Sochi, Volgograd, Yaroslavl, and now Ivanovo airports indicate immediate, localized security measures. The reported fire at an electrical substation in Krasnodar Krai due to UAV debris demonstrates RF's ongoing challenges in air defense. The coordination between Ka-52M helicopters and Igla missiles suggests effective real-time tactical C2 for air defense operations. The successful reprogramming of a captured UAF "Baba Yaga" drone demonstrates technical C2 effectiveness. The claim of a single trooper capturing a UAF strongpoint implies a degree of decentralized command initiative. RF sources claiming attacks on Patriot air defense systems near Kyiv suggests a coordinated targeting effort. Governor Slyusar's report of a "massive UAV attack repelled" suggests an effective localized C2 response. The claimed success of a drone-interceptor suggests effective tactical C2 for specialized counter-UAV operations. The claimed destruction of three UAF UAV control points in Dimitrov indicates effective tactical C2 for intelligence and targeting. The ZNPP director discusses forming the organizational structure of personnel according to RF legislation by end of 2025. The report of a signal from Moscow to limit funding for occupied territories suggests centralized control. The claim that UAF was unaware of RF presence in Muravka for a week suggests RF's capabilities for intelligence gathering. UAF claims of strikes on energy facilities in Yaroslavl and Kuban, if accurate, point to ongoing RF C2 challenges. The temporary traffic restrictions in Zaporizhzhia indicate local C2 response. The captured RF soldier's video specifically blames RF command. The renewed large-scale drone attack (141 UAVs launched) indicates RF maintains the C2 capability to coordinate significant air assaults. TASS reports destruction of an ammunition depot and UAF robotic platforms, indicating effective C2 for target acquisition. Colonelcassad's detailed operational reports across various RF units suggest effective tactical C2 for ground offensives. Kotsnews discusses the "isolation of the battlefield and subsidized Kyiv." TASS reports that dangerous item neutralization in Foros school has concluded. One of the deputy directors of the Ministry of Transport's security department in Rostov Oblast has been detained in a bribery case. About 60 flights are delayed at Sochi airport. Colonelcassad reports an air raid siren and instructions for civilians in Sevastopol. Peskov states Putin will make an important statement at an operational meeting with Security Council members. Putin is holding a meeting with members of the RF Security Council. TASS reports Peskov redirected questions about the UAF Crimea attack to the MoD. TASS reports the Kremlin dismissed Estonian claims of airspace violation. TASS: First Deputy Head of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky urban district Vladislav Maslo detained. TASS reports that the FSB, МВД, and Rosgvardia seized 356 mines, 1,500 grenades, and over 250 kg of explosives. ASTRA reports the mayor of Vladimir is accused of receiving a bribe. (FACT, TASS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Colonelcassad, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Kotsnews, ASTRA, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS confirms Saldo was in Moscow, refuting claims of his death, indicating RF maintains C2 over key personnel and rapid information control. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Putin discussing strategic planning and US missile defense systems, confirming high-level C2 focus on strategic stability. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Rybar shares video of Putin at a Security Council meeting discussing strategic stability and the New START treaty, confirming centralized C2 for high-level security policy. (FACT, Рыбарь, Confidence: HIGH).
  • AV БогомаZ shares photos of a formal meeting on a federal ecology project, indicating routine internal governmental C2 functions in Bryansk Oblast. (FACT, AV БогомаZ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS shares video of Commander Rakushev discussing an ambush for UAF near Muravka, DPR, indicating effective tactical C2 at the unit level. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Peskov denies accusations of Estonian airspace violation, calling them "empty and baseless," demonstrating RF's C2 over diplomatic denials. (FACT, Север.Реалії, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Басурин о главном shares a video of Putin discussing strategic threats, stating "RF is ready to respond to any strategic threats, not in words, but with military-technical measures." This reaffirms high-level C2 focus on strategic deterrence and response. (FACT, Басурин о главном, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports that Russia's decision to adhere to New START limits for a year after its expiration reflects a balanced and constructive approach by the country's leadership, according to Slutsky, demonstrating controlled messaging on strategic stability. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports discussions between Lavrov and US officials are being worked out for the UN General Assembly. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports visa issuance for the Russian delegation to the UN General Assembly is ongoing, with not all visas yet received. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
• Internal Security: TASS reporting on signs of extremism influencing teenagers indicates ongoing internal security concerns. The criminal case in Krasnodar Krai (father confessing to killing daughter), while non-military, reflects internal social pressures. TASS reports on corruption accusations against the head of Vladimir city and an ex-wife of a Sverdlovsk Vice-Governor. The Russian government supported a bill that would allow for stripping acquired Russian citizenship from those who evade military registration. TASS reports on law enforcement operations in Novosibirsk seizing a significant arsenal of illegal weapons. Два майора reports on the detention of a St. Petersburg resident who organized a terrorist attack. Полиция Хабаровского края reports on police conducting fraud prevention discussions. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and ASTRA report on the arrest of a 15-year-old in Moscow for arson of a railway relay cabinet. (FACT, TASS, РБК-Україна, Два майора, Север.Реалії, Полиция Хабаровского края, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Север.Реалії reports a mobilized soldier's mother detained at a picket in Moscow has been out of contact for a day, suggesting internal security measures against dissent. (FACT, Север.Реалії, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports a former head of Ples city had 1 billion rubles seized, indicating a focus on financial irregularities. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ТАСС reports the former wife of Sverdlovsk Vice-Governor Irina Chemezova denies guilt under house arrest, showing ongoing high-profile legal cases. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Два майора reports the detention of former State Duma deputy Ruslan Balbek, indicating internal political/security actions, possibly linked to Crimea. (FACT, Два майора, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ASTRA reports that the mother of a mobilized soldier, who was detained near the Ministry of Defense building, has been out of contact for a day, highlighting internal security challenges. (FACT, ASTRA, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports a train fire in Kuban was preliminarily caused by a short circuit. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports a former Deputy Governor of Yugra, Shipilov, was placed under house arrest until November 14, 2025, in a bribery case. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports an explosion at a wholesale trade base in Demre, Turkey. While not directly military, it indicates a security incident outside of Ukraine that RF C2 might monitor. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Север.Реалії reports that a court has refused to toughen sentences for Navalny's lawyers, indicating ongoing legal processes concerning political opposition figures. (FACT, Север.Реалії, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ТАСС reports on a judicial decision prohibiting three former Navalny lawyers from practicing law for 3 years, after being included in Russia's list of terrorists and extremists. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ASTRA shares a photo message that a former customs colonel, sentenced to 10 years for bribery, has gone to war, highlighting a societal issue with potential military impact. (FACT, ASTRA, Confidence: HIGH).
  • RF MoD shares video of EOD unit clearing AFU explosives in Lugansk People's Republic. (FACT, MoD Russia, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ASTRA reports that a participant in the invasion of Ukraine, previously convicted of murder, was awarded in Oryol Oblast. (FACT, ASTRA, Confidence: HIGH).
• Abkhazia Air Connectivity: Abkhazia's airport has received permission for flights to Ufa and Nalchik. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
• RF Statements on Strategic Stability & Nuclear Moratorium: Putin instructed to carefully monitor the build-up of US missile defense components, stated that the situation in strategic stability continues to degrade, and announced Russia will deploy intermediate-range missiles and abandon moratorium. (FACT, ТАСС, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
• RF Northern Fleet Exercise: Northern Fleet's nuclear-powered cruise missile submarine Arkhangelsk hit target simulating surface ship of mock enemy in Sea of Barents. (FACT, MoD Russia, Confidence: HIGH).
• RF Military Industrial Capabilities: Russia has offered India a proposal for the supply and localized production of Su-57 fighter jets. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
• RF Technological Sovereignty: Russian Deputy Prime Minister Mishustin states that Russia will not achieve full technological sovereignty if it blindly follows microelectronics leaders. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
• Воин DV shares photos of solemn events at the 40th Separate Guards Krasnodar-Kharbin Twice Red Banner Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet in Kamchatka, celebrating its 107th anniversary, indicating an ongoing focus on military traditions and esprit de corps. (FACT, Воин DV, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Воин DV shares photo messages promoting "Отряд Ковпака," indicating continued efforts to boost morale and recruit support for various RF-aligned units. (FACT, Воин DV, Confidence: HIGH).

UAF Forces:

• Active Defense: UAF maintains a resilient and active defensive posture across all major axes, with consistent repelling of RF assaults. UAF is conducting effective deep strike operations into occupied Crimea and RF territory, with a recent claim of striking Kanevskaya substation and energy facilities in Yaroslavl. Active monitoring and response to RF air activity are continuous. The 28th Mechanized Brigade is actively employing artillery to defend Konstantinovka. UAF SSO demonstrated successful urban clearing and prisoner capture on the Pokrovsk direction. UAF FPV drone units are effectively engaging RF personnel. UAF also utilizes larger attack drones ('Baba Yaga'). The situation in Kryvyi Rih is reported as controlled. UAF GUR "Ghosts" special unit successfully struck two Russian Be-12 "Chaika" amphibious aircraft and one Mi-8 helicopter in occupied Crimea. UAF FPV drone operators from the 414th UAV Brigade "Birds of Madyar" are publishing posthumous photos of Russian assault troops. UAF channels are observing a daily 09:00 minute of silence to commemorate fallen defenders. UAF Air Force reports a threat of ballistic missile launches from Taganrog, and on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the "Sapsan" battalion of the 10th Army Corps has targeted and destroyed two enemy "Bukhanka" vehicles and one motorcycle. In Kharkiv, an action "Do not be silent. Captivity kills" was held in support of missing and captured defenders. UAF Khartia unit drone operators are actively engaging and destroying Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainian forces have repelled 6 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction. Pidrozdil Shadow shares drone footage of a destroyed building. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Special Operations Forces (SSO) struck a Russian S-400 "Triumph" air defense system in Kaluga Oblast. Serhii Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk OVA shares a video emphasizing empathy, showing a Ukrainian soldier who lost limbs undergoing rehabilitation. Ukrainian Naval Infantry (ВМС ЗСУ) conducting training exercises. A UAF video shows drone footage documenting military engagements, including destruction of armored vehicles or military hardware on the Pokrovsk direction, associated with the 14th Brigade of Operational Purpose "Chervona Kalyna." Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares multiple photo messages with the caption "In war, there is only the weapon that works here and now." Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of operators of heavy unmanned systems from the 426th Separate Battalion of Unmanned Systems, 30th Marine Corps, working at night. UAF General Staff reports that RF troops have fully exited Belarus. UAF is advancing on the Dobropillya direction. (FACT, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), STERNENKO, АSTRA, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Олександр Вілкул, БУТУСУ ПЛЮС, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Liveuamap Source, Підрозділ Shadow, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), ВМС ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Oleksandr Vilkul shares photos of underground educational hubs being created in Kryvyi Rih, demonstrating adaptive measures for civilian protection and continuity of education. (FACT, Олександр Вілкул, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими reports a meeting with families of servicemen from the 225th Separate Assault Battalion, part of the 115th Separate Mechanized Brigade, highlighting ongoing support structures for military families. (FACT, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts several photo messages with the caption "The resistance movement is a continuation of the underground and partisan struggle waged by our ancestors," reinforcing a historical narrative of resilience and popular support for defense. (FACT, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • UAF General Staff provides an updated operational summary as of 16:00 22.09.2025, detailing recent Russian invasion activities, indicating continuous reporting and operational awareness. (FACT, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • STERNENKO shares drone footage showing UAF attacks on RF military vehicles and personnel on the Pokrovsk direction, highlighting active UAF tactical engagements. (FACT, STERNENKO, Confidence: HIGH).
  • РБК-Україна reports that Poland and Sweden have for the first time in history started military exercises in the Baltic Sea. (FACT, РБК-Україна, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ reports Poland and Sweden are conducting joint exercises in the Baltic Sea, quoting the Polish Minister of Defense. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України reports that the command of the Airborne Assault Troops (DSHV) has responded to accusations regarding the creation of assault troops, indicating an internal focus on organizational structure and effectiveness. (FACT, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ shares a recruitment video encouraging Ukrainians to choose a military branch and specialty via army.gov.ua. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares multiple photos of soldiers in training with various weapons, both Ukrainian and foreign, new and old, to demonstrate readiness and training. (FACT, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of soldiers of the 95th Polissia Separate Air Assault Brigade using anti-aircraft FPV drones to destroy an expensive Russian "Forpost" reconnaissance drone in the Siversk direction, demonstrating active air defense successes. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of soldiers of the 5th Assault Brigade successfully striking two guns and a self-propelled artillery unit (SAU) of the enemy, demonstrating effective counter-battery fire. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares drone footage of the "Steel Border" brigade of the State Border Guard Service operating in Sumy Oblast, showing successful engagements against Russian forces in wooded areas, preventing them from approaching the contact line. (FACT, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • РБК-Україна reports that Zelenskyy proposed to the Rada to allow the deployment of Ukrainian Navy units abroad. (FACT, РБК-Україна, Confidence: HIGH).
• Readiness: UAF demonstrates high combat readiness, effectively repelling intense RF assaults and conducting complex air defense and deep strike operations. Adaptive capabilities, such as the formal establishment of "drone assault troops" and successful F-16 operations (previous report), are notable. However, ongoing fundraising shortfalls for critical supplies, and issues with fraudulent fundraising, highlight persistent resource constraints that could impact long-term readiness. The current distributed RF drone attacks will stress UAF air defense assets and personnel. The concentration of Shaheds on Brovary demonstrates that even smaller, focused attacks can challenge UAF's ability to protect specific areas due to resource constraints. The confirmed fires in residential buildings in Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast, with one injured, due to RF drone attacks indicate a partial penetration of UAF air defenses, raising concerns about readiness against persistent, dispersed attacks. RF propaganda efforts, portraying UAF police apprehending individuals for conscription, aim to undermine public trust and morale. The hit and injury in Sumy due to UAV attack also underscore these constraints. The 5 strikes on Zaporizhzhia (now with three fatalities and two wounded civilians) and 2 hits in Sumy (now with two injured civilians and missile strikes), resulting in damage to industrial, educational, and residential facilities, further highlight constraints on UAF air defense readiness. TASS reports five UAF servicemen surrendered in Sumy Oblast, indicating potential localized readiness issues. The claimed "semi-encirclement" of a UAF logistics hub in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, if successful, would pose a significant readiness challenge. TASS reports Igor Marochko's claim of Kiev losing ~4,500 soldiers and mercenaries in Luhansk Oblast in a week. UAF General Staff provides updated RF loss figures. Damage reported in two districts of Dnipropetropavsk Oblast from enemy fire further stresses UAF readiness in civilian protection. RF claims UAF failed to liberate encircled brigades in Kharkiv (MEDIUM - RF claim, unverified). The defection of Ukrainian judoka Yelyzaveta Lytvynenko to the UAE represents a minor, but potentially morale-impacting, loss. UAF Air Force reports 132/141 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed, indicating continuous pressure on UAF air defense readiness. The 7 settlements hit in Kharkiv Oblast further indicates continuous pressure on UAF readiness. The "Rubizh" brigade's fundraising for destroyed property and equipment underscores ongoing readiness challenges. DeepState reports UAF is launching a digital military accounting system "Impulse". A UAF video shows a soldier struggling to obtain clean water near Pokrovsk. Alex Parker Returns reports on a fraudulent fundraising campaign. The Office of the Prosecutor Prosecutor General's report on corruption schemes, draft evasion, and illegal border crossings highlights internal challenges to UAF readiness and personnel integrity. Operatyvny ZSU reports the SBU detained FSB agents who were supplying Ukrainian SIM cards to Russian kamikaze drones. РБК-Україна is supporting a fundraiser for cars for the 153rd Mechanized Brigade. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a fundraising graphic for EcoFlow DELTA 2 Max, parts for "combat horses," and equipment for the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade. STERNENKO shares a fundraising graphic for 350 FPV drones, including 40 Shahed interceptors. In Lviv, a college lecturer organized a scheme for draft evasion. Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration posts a graphic about new opportunities for defenders. The decreased enemy activity in Sumy Oblast in September could also indicate a lull before renewed RF pressure, which would constrain UAF resources. (FACT, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, TASS, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація, Десантно-штурмові війські ЗС України, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, БУТУСУ ПЛЮС, Alex Parker Returns, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv OVA, reports 840 million UAH allocated for the protection of energy facilities in the Kharkiv region, demonstrating proactive measures to enhance readiness against RF strikes. (FACT, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the SBU has sentenced a kindergarten security guard to 15 years for adjusting RF strikes on Zaporizhzhia, highlighting ongoing counter-espionage efforts critical to UAF readiness. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Операция Z reports on a priest being caught for accepting $10,000 to consecrate a draft dodger as a deacon to avoid mobilization, highlighting internal UAF issues that RF may exploit. (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH).
• Digital Military Accounting System: The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine is deploying a digital military accounting system "Impulse," which will streamline personnel management. (FACT, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
• Naval Infantry Training: Ukrainian Naval Infantry (ВМС ЗСУ) conducting training exercises, focusing on crossing water obstacles. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
• Poland Airspace: Poland does not intend to shoot down objects violating its airspace on its own. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ASTRA reports that Poland will shoot down any objects violating its airspace, but only "if they are completely clear." This contradicts a previous report about Tusk's statement, and reflects internal debate or differing opinions within Poland's leadership regarding airspace security protocols. (FACT, ASTRA, Confidence: HIGH).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (Confidence: HIGH)

Capabilities:

• Long-Range Precision Strike: RF maintains the capability for large-scale combined missile and UAV attacks. Persistent launches of guided aerial bombs (КАБ) towards Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts, and general drone activity across various regions (Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Krasnodar Krai, Bryansk, Belgorod), demonstrate continuous kinetic and reconnaissance capabilities. RF successfully targeted a UAF locomotive with a kamikaze UAV. The confirmed drone attacks on Slavyansk-on-Kuban and the general pattern of dispersed drone strikes confirm RF's ability to conduct simultaneous, multi-directional drone operations. The confirmed fires in Kyiv Oblast due to RF drones demonstrate continued capability to penetrate UAF air defenses and cause damage. RF also possesses TOS-1A "Solntsepek" systems for thermobaric strikes. Five strikes on civilian infrastructure and industry in Zaporizhzhia, and two Shahed hits on industrial/educational facilities in Sumy, demonstrate continued capability to penetrate UAF air defense. The reported repulsion of a "massive UAV attack" in Rostov Oblast indicates RF maintains active and capable air defenses within its territory. The Sumy OVA head reports missile strikes (2 cruise) alongside a Shahed drone. RF MoD claims 114 UAF UAVs intercepted overnight. Confirmed use of КАБ in the Zaporizhzhia strike. The strikes on two districts in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, causing damage to residential buildings, further indicate RF's capability to conduct widespread fire missions. Two people were injured from a UAF drone detonating near the Belgorod city administration building. UAF Air Force reports 141 enemy UAVs, including 80 Shaheds, were launched overnight, indicating RF maintains significant drone launch capability. Operatsiya Z reports 'Geran' drones hit a UAF 156th Brigade deployment point. TASS reports destruction of an ammunition depot and two UAF robotic platforms. Zelenskiy / Official and Север.Реалії confirm 3 fatalities in Zaporizhzhia from RF guided aerial bomb attacks. UAF Air Force reports launches of КАБ on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports a threat of ballistic missile launches from Taganrog, and on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. Басурин о главном uses the narrative "Kyiv regime has finally dropped its mask and demonstrates its true essence – a terrorist organization." The TASS video showing damage to a school in Crimea after a UAF drone attack, and interviews with school officials, indicates RF's intent to highlight UAF targeting of civilian educational facilities. Воин DV activity targeting a UAF 141st Mechanized Brigade deployment point within a populated area. Vladimir Konstantinov states "Kiev regime will be punished." MoD Russia shares a video of a TOS-1A Solntsepyok heavy flamethrower system smashing a stronghold of the AFU. RF launched a missile strike on Bobrivka, Kharkiv district. Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast amid ballistic missile threat. Операция Z and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS share video of a "Geran" drone strike on a Ukrainian oil depot. Missile strike reported in Pavlohrad, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Moment of overflight and strike of a reactive "Geran-3" on objects in Chernihiv Oblast, targeting a Ukrainian oil refinery. Two children were wounded in Belgorod district. RF is shelling Horlivka, DNR. (FACT, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, TASS, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація, РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Zelenskiy / Official, Север.Реалії, Басурин о главном, Воин DV, Liveuamap Source, MoD Russia, Kotsnews, Confidence: HIGH).
  • RF MoD reports 13 Ukrainian drones destroyed over Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts between 12:00 and 15:00 MSK, confirming ongoing air defense capabilities against UAF UAVs. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Mash na Donbasse shares video of a gas station on fire after a drone strike in Severodonetsk, demonstrating RF's ability to sustain strikes against infrastructure in occupied territories. (FACT, Mash на Донбассе, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Два майора shares video of an alleged UAF military convoy being destroyed by an aerial attack, indicating RF air-to-ground strike capabilities. (FACT, Два майора, Confidence: HIGH).
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of a fuel station engulfed in flames in occupied Severodonetsk, with firefighters present. The caption suggests a drone hit a military truck at the station. This indicates RF's capability to sustain strikes against military-related infrastructure even in occupied territories. (FACT, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern direction and launches of КАБ in Donetsk Oblast. (FACT, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • UAF Air Force reports a threat of ballistic missile launches from Kursk. (FACT, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • РБК-Україна reports that "Shaheds" hit a school in Kramatorsk, confirming new RF strikes on civilian educational facilities in Donetsk Oblast. (FACT, РБК-УкраїНА, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video captured by a Ukrainian firefighter showing a Russian "Shahed" drone hitting an oil depot just meters away. This demonstrates RF's capability for precision strikes on fuel infrastructure. (FACT, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Confidence: HIGH).
  • A new drone group is reported in Kharkiv Oblast, heading towards Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. (FACT, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
• Ground Offensive Operations: RF has demonstrated the capability to conduct multi-axis, persistent ground offensives, achieving localized territorial gains in Dnipropetropavsk (Berëzovoye, Kalynivske) and Donetsk Oblasts (Novoekonomichne, Romanivka), and maintaining pressure around Chasiv Yar and Lyman. RF special forces are capable of urban combat. RF units like "Sever V" are effectively employing thermal drones to support ground offensives. RF also utilizes "Orlan-10" UAVs for reconnaissance and targeting. RF claims a single assault trooper successfully captured a UAF strongpoint in Kamenskoye. The reported destruction of three UAF UAV control points in Dimitrov suggests a capability to identify and target critical UAF drone infrastructure. RF claims of improved positions near Yampol and Kremenna further highlight their ground offensive capabilities. The claimed "semi-encirclement" of a UAF logistics hub in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast indicates RF's capability for deeper operational maneuvers. The claim that UAF was unaware of RF presence in Muravka for a week suggests RF's capabilities for stealthy infiltration or intelligence gathering. RF claims about UAF failing to liberate encircled brigades in Kharkiv. WarGonzo maps indicate continued RF offensive efforts. RF 1st Tank Army FPV drone operators claiming a successful ambush near Borova also reflects an intent to disrupt UAF movement. "Воин DV" (5th Army, "Vostok" Group) claims continued offensive from Novoivanivka and Olhivske. Colonelcassad reports detailed operations by various RF units. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition and Старше Эдды share video evidence of ground operations and captured UAF equipment in Olhivske. MoD Russia also shares details on the liberation of Olgovskoye (Olhivske). РБК-Україна reports RF soldiers near Pokrovsk are complaining about "meat assaults," confirming their capability for persistent, high-attrition offensives. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF left dozens of bodies of fellow servicemen in Olhivske, Zaporizhzhia direction, implying RF intent to inflict heavy losses on UAF (LOW - verification). STERNENKO reports RF has intensified assault actions in the responsibility area of the 7th Corps of the Airborne Assault Troops. The "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" channel shares an image of a military map with red lines and arrows, indicating RF troop movements on the Lyman direction. "Два майора" is fundraising for assault troops on the Slavyansk direction. Воин DV claims that the "Vostok" Group of Forces liberated another settlement in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast (Kalynivske). MoD Russia shares a video of a TOS-1A Solntsepyok heavy flamethrower system smashing a stronghold of the AFU. Бутусов Плюс shares a video depicting RF infantry being engaged by UAF, with an explosion and vehicle destruction. Narodnaya miliiya DNR shares video of the 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment shooting down UAF drones. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares video of RF special forces using motorcycles for rapid assault on a fortified UAF position. Архангел Спецназа posts a map with red-colored areas indicating RF control or areas of operation in the Pokrovsk direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also posts a map of the Kupiansk direction. (FACT, TASS, Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, WarGonzo, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Воин DV, Старше Эдды, MoD Russia, РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, Сливочный каприз, Два майора, БУТУСУ ПЛЮС, Народная милиция ДНР, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Kadyrov_95 shares video of FPV drone attacks by the Sheikh Mansur rifle battalion on Ukrainian military positions and equipment in the Kharkiv direction, demonstrating continued localized offensive actions. (FACT, Kadyrov_95, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS shares video of Commander Rakushev discussing an ambush for UAF near Muravka, DPR, indicating small-unit tactical engagement capabilities. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Народная милиция ДНР shares video of the 'Metis' crew of the 238th Brigade targeting and eliminating UAF infantry in Stepanivka. This confirms persistent RF ground engagements. (FACT, Народная милиция ДНР, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports that the liberation of Kalynivske and RF advances on the border of DNR, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts are forcing Kyiv to send reserves to this direction, thereby exposing other front sections. This indicates RF intent to leverage tactical gains for broader operational advantage. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares an image related to "Druzhkovka direction," which could indicate ongoing ground operations or reconnaissance in that area. (FACT, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Confidence: HIGH).
  • WarGonzo shares a video of a soldier discussing tactics against FPV drones using a shotgun, indicating adaptive small-unit tactics in response to UAF drone threat. (FACT, WarGonzo, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Kotsnews shares video from the "liberation of Muravka," featuring RF assault troopers discussing tactical movements, minefields, and the engagement of fortified positions, demonstrating capability for deliberate, multi-faceted ground advances. (FACT, Kotsnews, Confidence: HIGH).
  • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a highly-pixelated and distorted video with explosions, captioned "Froze? We'll warm you up!", implying aggressive combat action by RF special forces. (FACT, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Colonelcassad is organizing a fundraiser for "assault troopers and scouts operating in the South Donetsk direction," appealing for drones, anti-drone equipment, and thermal imagers, indicating ongoing materiel needs for this axis and implying sustained offensive capability. (FACT, Colonelcassad, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) shares drone footage of Ukrainian combatants reportedly detonating on mines in Stepanivka on the Konstantinovka direction, indicating RF's capability for effective mine warfare. (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Сливочный каприз shares an image and video captioned "22.09.25 Константиновка - Предтечино," showing what appears to be a military map and an aerial drone video of explosions in a wooded area. This indicates active combat and targeting by RF or UAF forces. (FACT, Сливочный каприз, Confidence: HIGH).
  • RF MoD shares video of EOD unit clearing AFU explosives in Lugansk People's Republic. (FACT, MoD Russia, Confidence: HIGH).
• Hybrid Warfare: RF continues to employ sophisticated hybrid operations, including direct military provocations against NATO airspace/territory, large-scale unattributed cyberattacks, and comprehensive information operations.
• Drone Warfare: RF possesses and is developing advanced drone systems, including "mother drones." RF claims successful interdiction of UAF naval drones and has demonstrated effective counter-UAV measures. Their drones are actively used for kinetic strikes and reconnaissance, with new capabilities observed in thermal imaging. RF is demonstrating an adaptive capability to launch multiple smaller waves of Shaheds. RF has demonstrated air-to-air drone interception capability using Ka-52M helicopters with Igla missiles. RF engineers are demonstrating the capability to re-program captured UAF "Baba Yaga" drones. The confirmed successful interception of Ukrainian UAVs by a Russian drone-interceptor indicates an advanced and effective counter-UAV capability. The TASS video detailing an RF FPV drone operator discusses deploying "around 40 drones" in Zaporizhzhia. The claimed interception of 114 UAF UAVs overnight demonstrates a significant and active RF counter-UAV capability. Persistent UAV activity in northern Chernihiv Oblast, heading south, indicates continuous RF reconnaissance and potential strike capabilities. RF 1st Tank Army FPV drone operators claiming a successful ambush near Borova demonstrates adaptive use of drones for tactical engagements. "Воин DV" explicitly states UAV operators are working to reduce enemy defensive potential. Colonelcassad's reports frequently mention the extensive use of FPV and other drones in ground operations. Colonelcassad claims drone operators of the 1466th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment are shooting down enemy agricultural drones. Басурин о главном shares a video showing drone debris after an attack in Donetsk. Operatyvny ZSU reports the SBU detained FSB agents who were supplying Ukrainian SIM cards to Russian kamikaze drones. "Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН "Ахмат" video shows drone surveillance in Sumy Oblast. RF is deploying "Hortenzia" drones, equipped with grenade launchers. Sil'y Oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny reports 19 Shahed-136 drones were destroyed in the southern regions during the past day. Narodnaya miliiya ДНР shares video of the 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment shooting down UAF drones. Kotsnews shares video of a Russian drone operator not engaging Ukrainian humanitarian workers. Операция Z and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS share video of a "Geran" drone strike on a Ukrainian oil depot. (FACT, Colonelcassad, TASS, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Два майора, Воин DV, Басурин о главном, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат», Сили оборони Півдня України, Народная милиция ДНР, Kotsnews, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Kotsnews shares thermal imagery footage showing a Ukrainian hexacopter drone (R-18/LF240) being targeted and struck on the Kramatorsk-Druzhkovsk direction, demonstrating RF's continued counter-UAV capabilities. (FACT, Kotsnews, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares images of a "Molniya" UAV reportedly repurposed by RF as a "mother drone" for FPV drones, indicating continued RF innovation and capability in drone warfare. (FACT, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Confidence: HIGH).
• Specialized Engineering: RF has successfully tested a "Posokh" laser mine-clearing system. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
• Regional Air Connectivity: Abkhazia's airport receiving permission for flights to Ufa and Nalchik demonstrates RF's capability to improve civilian and potentially logistical connectivity. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
• Internal Security Operations: TASS reports that the FSB, МВД, and Rosgvardia seized 356 mines, 1,500 grenades, and over 250 kg of explosives from illegal arms dealers across 37 regions of Russia. Kotsnews shares a video on FSB revealing an underground arsenal network. TASS reports the detention of a St. Petersburg resident who organized the arson of a cell tower in Toksovo, Leningrad Oblast. (FACT, TASS, Kotsnews, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Два майора reports the detention of former State Duma deputy Ruslan Balbek, indicating continued internal security actions impacting political figures, possibly related to occupied territories. (FACT, Два майора, Confidence: HIGH).
• Military Industrial Capabilities: Russia has offered India a proposal for the supply and localized production of Su-57 fighter jets. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
• Technological Sovereignty Initiative: Russian Deputy Prime Minister Mishustin states that Russia will not achieve full technological sovereignty if it blindly follows microelectronics leaders. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
• Strategic Nuclear Capabilities: Putin instructed to carefully monitor the build-up of US missile defense components, stated that the situation in strategic stability continues to degrade, and announced Russia will deploy intermediate-range missiles and abandon moratorium. Northern Fleet's nuclear-powered cruise missile submarine Arkhangelsk hit target simulating surface ship of mock enemy in Sea of Barents. (FACT, ТАСС, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, MoD Russia, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports that Russia's decision to adhere to New START limits for a year after its expiration reflects a balanced and constructive approach by the country's leadership, according to Slutsky. This indicates a continued capability for strategic messaging and maintaining a "responsible" image, even with the new missile announcement. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
• Diplomatic Engagement: TASS reports discussions between Lavrov and US officials are being worked out for the UN General Assembly. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).

Intentions:

• Degrade UAF Warfighting Capability and Civilian Morale: RF intends to continue kinetic operations against military assets, infrastructure, and civilian targets to degrade UAF's ability to fight and to undermine public morale. The continued use of КАБ and Shahed drones, as well as the targeted strikes in Crimea (which RF frames as targeting civilian objects), the strike on an electrical substation in Krasnodar Krai, the residential building fires in Kyiv Oblast, the civilian infrastructure hit in Zaporizhzhia (now with confirmed three fatalities and two wounded, and use of КАБ, and unexploded munitions), the industrial/educational hits in Sumy (now with missile strikes alongside drones and two injured civilians), the damage in Dnipropetropavsk Oblasts, and the RF-acknowledged casualties in Belgorod Oblast support this. The multiple, dispersed drone attacks observed currently suggest an intent to maintain pressure across multiple regions, cause anxiety, and exhaust UAF air defense assets. The reported 10 Shaheds inbound to Brovary underscores the intent to maintain psychological pressure. The strike on three UAF UAV control points in Dimitrov indicates an intent to directly degrade UAF drone operational capabilities. RF's actions in Belgorod Oblast, resulting in civilian casualties, further confirm an intent to inflict damage on Ukrainian territory, framing it as retaliation for UAF strikes. RF claims "5 strikes were carried out on Zaporizhzhia. Industrial and infrastructure facilities of the enemy were attacked." The confirmed two injured from a UAF drone detonation near Belgorod city administration will likely fuel RF's narrative. The overnight launch of 141 enemy UAVs, including 80 Shaheds, against Ukraine suggests a renewed intent for significant, widespread drone attacks. Operatsiya Z reports 'Geran' drones hit a UAF 156th Brigade deployment point. TASS reports destruction of an ammunition depot and UAF robotic platforms. Zelenskiy / Official and Север.Реалії confirm 3 fatalities in Zaporizhzhia from RF guided aerial bomb attacks. UAF Air Force reports launches of КАБ on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports a threat of ballistic missile launches from Taganrog, and on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. Басурин о главном uses the narrative "Kyiv regime has finally dropped its mask and demonstrates its true essence – a terrorist organization." The TASS video showing damage to a school in Crimea after a UAF drone attack, and interviews with school officials, indicates RF's intent to highlight UAF targeting of civilian educational facilities. Воин DV activity targeting a UAF 141st Mechanized Brigade deployment point within a populated area. Vladimir Konstantinov states "Kiev regime will be punished." MoD Russia shares a video of a TOS-1A Solntsepyok heavy flamethrower system smashing a stronghold of the AFU. RF launched a missile strike on Bobrivka, Kharkiv district. Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast amid ballistic missile threat. Операция Z and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS share video of a "Geran" drone strike on a Ukrainian oil depot. Missile strike reported in Pavlohrad, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. Moment of overflight and strike of a reactive "Geran-3" on objects in Chernihiv Oblast, targeting a Ukrainian oil refinery. Two children were wounded in Belgorod district. RF is shelling Horlivka, DNR. (FACT, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, TASS, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація, РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Zelenskiy / Official, Север.Реалії, Басурин о главном, Воин DV, MoD Russia, Kotsnews, Confidence: HIGH).
  • RF MoD reports 13 Ukrainian drones destroyed over Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts, amplifying their success in countering UAF attacks. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Операция Z reports 4 wounded in Belgorod Oblast, two of them children, due to UAF attacks. This is an update to previous reports of 2 children wounded, further amplifying the narrative of UAF civilian targeting. (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Mash na Donbasse shares video of a gas station on fire after a drone strike in Severodonetsk, implicitly blaming UAF for infrastructure damage. (FACT, Mash на Донбассе, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports preliminary damage from the attack on Foros exceeds 18.7 million rubles, further amplifying the cost and impact of UAF attacks. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Kadyrov_95 shares video of FPV drone attacks by the Sheikh Mansur rifle battalion in the Kharkiv direction, demonstrating continued kinetic operations. (FACT, Kadyrov_95, Confidence: HIGH).
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of a fuel station engulfed in flames in occupied Severodonetsk, with firefighters present. The caption suggests a drone hit a military truck at the station. This implicitly blames UAF for damage. (FACT, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Colonelcassad reports a drone attack on a vehicle with children in Belgorod Oblast, directly targeting the narrative of UAF civilian harm. (FACT, Colonelcassad, Confidence: HIGH).
  • UAF Air Force reports a threat of ballistic missile launches from Kursk. This indicates RF intent to maintain widespread threat. (FACT, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • РБК-Україна reports that "Shaheds" hit a school in Kramatorsk, confirming new RF strikes on civilian educational facilities in Donetsk Oblast and underscoring intent to degrade civilian morale. (FACT, РБК-УкраїНА, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video captured by a Ukrainian firefighter showing a Russian "Shahed" drone hitting an oil depot just meters away. This highlights RF's intent to target energy infrastructure. (FACT, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Confidence: HIGH).
  • A new drone group is reported in Kharkiv Oblast, heading towards Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. (FACT, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • RF MoD shares video of EOD unit clearing AFU explosives in Lugansk People's Republic. (FACT, MoD Russia, Confidence: HIGH).
• Sustain Ground Pressure and Achieve Territorial Gains: RF intends to maintain the operational initiative on key axes, particularly Pokrovsk and Lyman, to achieve incremental territorial gains and exhaust UAF defenses. The deployment of laser mine-clearing systems further supports this intention. The reported capture of a UAF strongpoint in Kamenskoye and the use of TOS-1A systems indicate an intent for continued tactical advances. Claims of improved positions near Yampol and Kremenna further highlight this intention. The claimed "semi-encirclement" of a UAF logistics hub in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast indicates an intent for deeper, more decisive operational gains. The claim about UAF lack of awareness in Muravka, while unverified, suggests an intent to highlight UAF defensive vulnerabilities. RF claims about UAF failing to liberate encircled brigades in Kharkiv suggests an intent to defend current gains and potentially continue offensive operations. WarGonzo maps indicate continued RF offensive efforts. RF 1st Tank Army FPV drone operators claiming a successful ambush near Borova also reflects an intent to disrupt UAF movement. "Воин DV" explicitly states its UAV operators are working to reduce enemy defensive potential as ground forces advance. Colonelcassad reports detailed operations by various RF units. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition and Старше Эдды share video evidence of ground operations and captured UAF equipment in Olhivske. MoD Russia also shares details on the liberation of Olgovskoye (Olhivske). РБК-Україна reports RF soldiers near Pokrovsk are complaining about "meat assaults," confirming RF's intent to sustain these offensives despite losses. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF left dozens of bodies of fellow servicemen in Olhivske, Zaporizhzhia direction, implying RF intent to inflict heavy losses on UAF (LOW - verification). STERNENKO reports RF has intensified assault actions in the responsibility area of the 7th Corps of the Airborne Assault Troops. The "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" channel shares an image of a military map with red lines and arrows, indicating RF troop movements on the Lyman direction. "Два майора" is fundraising for assault troops on the Slavyansk direction. Воин DV claims that the "Vostok" Group of Forces liberated another settlement in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast (Kalynivske). MoD Russia shares a video of a TOS-1A Solntsepyok heavy flamethrower system smashing a stronghold of the AFU. Бутусов Плюс shares a video depicting RF infantry being engaged by UAF, with an explosion and vehicle destruction. Narodnaya miliiya DNR shares video of the 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment shooting down UAF drones. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares video of RF special forces using motorcycles for rapid assault on a fortified UAF position. Архангел Спецназа posts a map with red-colored areas indicating RF control or areas of operation in the Pokrovsk direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 also posts a map of the Kupiansk direction. (FACT, TASS, Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, WarGonzo, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Воин DV, Старше Эдды, MoD Russia, РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, Сливочный каприз, Два майора, БУТУСУ ПЛЮС, Народная милиция ДНР, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Confidence: HIGH).
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video report from a Russian serviceman claiming that for 4 consecutive days, his comrades have been detonating on mines remotely dropped by Ukrainian heavy drones on RF logistical routes, indicating RF intent to overcome these disruptions. (FACT, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Два майора shares video of an alleged UAF military convoy being destroyed by an aerial attack, framed as a successful RF engagement. (FACT, Два майора, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Народная милиция ДНР shares video of the 'Metis' crew of the 238th Brigade targeting and eliminating UAF infantry in Stepanivka. This highlights an intent for persistent direct engagement. (FACT, Народная милиция ДНР, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports that the liberation of Kalynivske and RF advances on the border of DNR, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts are forcing Kyiv to send reserves to this direction, thereby exposing other front sections. This indicates RF intent to leverage tactical gains for broader operational advantage. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Kotsnews shares video from the "liberation of Muravka," featuring RF assault troopers discussing tactical movements, minefields, and the engagement of fortified positions, indicating a sustained intent for ground advances. (FACT, Kotsnews, Confidence: HIGH).
  • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a highly-pixelated and distorted video with explosions, captioned "Froze? We'll warm you up!", implying aggressive combat action by RF special forces. (FACT, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Colonelcassad is organizing a fundraiser for "assault troopers and scouts operating in the South Donetsk direction," appealing for drones, anti-drone equipment, and thermal imagers, indicating ongoing materiel needs for this axis and implying sustained offensive intent. (FACT, Colonelcassad, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) shares drone footage of Ukrainian combatants reportedly detonating on mines in Stepanivka on the Konstantinovka direction, indicating RF's intent to utilize mine warfare. (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Сливочный каприз shares an image and video captioned "22.09.25 Константиновка - Предтечино," showing what appears to be a military map and an aerial drone video of explosions in a wooded area. This indicates active combat and targeting by RF or UAF forces. (FACT, Сливочный каприз, Confidence: HIGH).
• Test NATO Resolve and Sow Discord: RF will continue probing NATO's borders and amplifying narratives that highlight divisions within the alliance. The "mass protests" narrative in Warsaw is a direct attempt to sow discord. Colonelcassad reports Macron does not see genocide in Gaza. Операция Z reports Netanyahu accusing Palestine-recognizing countries of supporting terrorism and threatening a response. TASS reports that the EU is rushing to adopt a new seven-year budget plan due to fears of Marine Le Pen's forces winning the 2027 French presidential elections. Janus Putkonen states that NATO is preparing for a new conflict with Russia and that the destruction of the Finnish economy is due to the economic war against Russia. Poland does not intend to shoot down objects violating its airspace on its own. TASS: The majority of EU countries in the UN demonstrate "herd mentality". (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia), Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports the Director of the Department of International Organizations of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kirill Logvinov, states there are no prerequisites for a substantive dialogue between Russia and the EU at the moment, indicating an intent to maintain diplomatic isolation and pressure on the EU. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Colonelcassad shares an image related to "why the Interior Minister of Britain became a Pakistani," used to sow discord and exploit social anxieties in Western countries. (FACT, Colonelcassad, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Estonia has called for an emergency NATO meeting and a UN Security Council meeting at its request. RF will likely frame this as Western overreaction and aggression. (FACT, Colonelcassad, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Colonelcassad reports that Poland has once again acknowledged that no combat drones were found on its territory, only empty decoy drones, reinforcing the Russian narrative of non-aggressive intent and undermining NATO claims. (FACT, Colonelcassad, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Peskov denies accusations of Estonian airspace violation, calling them "empty and baseless," aiming to discredit NATO claims and sow doubt. (FACT, Север.Реалії, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports that Charles de Gaulle's grandson, Pierre de Gaulle, made an ironic comment about Kyiv imposing sanctions on him, used to highlight perceived divisions or criticism of Ukraine among Western figures. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • РБК-Україна reports a "bunker boom" in Germany after "Shaheds" in Poland, which RF will likely exploit to highlight Western fear and division. (FACT, РБК-Україна, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ASTRA reports that Poland will shoot down any objects violating its airspace, but only "if they are completely clear." This contradicts a previous report about Tusk's statement and provides RF with material to highlight disunity or conflicting policies within NATO. (FACT, ASTRA, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports that Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó states that NATO countries' calls for a more aggressive response to airspace violations lead to further escalation. He also hopes there will be no escalation between NATO and Russia in the future. This demonstrates RF intent to leverage statements from perceived NATO outliers to sow discord. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
• Consolidate Control in Occupied Territories: RF intends to normalize its control over occupied territories, including through infrastructure projects and the imposition of its administrative systems. This includes the alleged 'colonial policy' of dividing Ukrainian land. The establishment of new flight routes to Abkhazia from RF cities reflects an intention to further integrate. The ZNPP director's statement about forming the organizational structure of personnel by end of 2025 according to RF legislation is a clear indicator of RF's intent to fully integrate and control critical infrastructure. The reported signal from Moscow to limit funding for occupied territories could indicate an intent to re-prioritize resource allocation. (FACT, TASS, РБК-Україна, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports preliminary damage from the attack on Foros exceeds 18.7 million rubles, indicating RF's intent to quantify and publicize the impact of UAF strikes on occupied territories. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Alex Parker Returns shares information about the Palestinian Embassy in London being upgraded and flags being raised, claiming Ukraine opened a Palestinian embassy in 2001. This is a subtle attempt to draw parallels or discredit Ukrainian foreign policy within the context of occupied territories. (FACT, Alex Parker Returns, Confidence: HIGH).
• Geopolitical Exploitation: RF will continue to leverage international developments, such as the recognition of Palestine, to highlight perceived Western hypocrisy or divisions. RF will also leverage perceived US internal divisions/political events (e.g., Trump/Musk appearance, Kirk's pro-Russia stance) to advance its narrative of Western decline. The continued promotion of Charlie Kirk by TASS is part of this effort. RF continues to amplify US political narratives. RF continues to cultivate relations with rogue states like North Korea. Kim Jong Un's statement on North Korea not giving up nuclear weapons, obtaining "secret weapons," and not dialoguing with South Korea, aligns with RF's broader anti-Western strategic goals. The US receiving the President of Syria for the first time since 1967 is a significant diplomatic development that RF will likely exploit. Japan's commitment to denuclearize North Korea, while expressing willingness to cooperate with the US, will likely be framed by RF as further Western interference. The TASS claim about US citizens recognizing Biden's "false narratives." Donald Trump's positive remarks about his conversation with Elon Musk. The defection of Ukrainian judoka Yelyzaveta Lytvynenko to the UAE will be used by RF to demonstrate a loss of national talent for Ukraine. Zelenskyy's upcoming meeting with Trump in New York will be heavily scrutinized. Rybar reports growing chaos in the Middle East. TASS reporting on Cond Nast applying for Vogue trademark in Russia could be used to project a return to normalcy. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on Trump's statement about a UFC fight in the White House. Alex Parker Returns highlights Putin's Rosh Hashanah greetings and Mishustin's influence. Операция Z promotes a quote from Trump to Elon Musk ("Let's fix the situation, I missed you"). Басурин о главном shows a video of a large crowd at the State Farm Stadium in Arizona for political activist Charlie Kirk's farewell. Colonelcassad reports Kim Jong Un stating he has created "secret weapons." ASTRA reports that North Korea has announced the creation of "secret weapons." The woman in the Butusov Plus video expresses strong anti-Western sentiments, implying a desire for stronger leadership. The Russian government supported a bill that would allow for stripping acquired Russian citizenship from those who evade military registration. Alex Parker Returns shares a video with Donald Trump and Elon Musk, promoting a narrative of "peace, brotherhood, love and goodness." TASS reports Amirkhanian claimed in court he was framed in the Kiva murder. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts on the US developing a plan to resume enriched uranium production. TASS reports that a new package of EU sanctions against Russia has been agreed with the US. Alex Parker Returns shares a video of Palestinian refugees arriving in Dagestan. TASS reports Mishustin's statement on Russia strengthening microelectronics cooperation with Belarus and China. Операция Z also shares this statement. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares historical footage of a joint Soviet-German parade in 1939. TASS: Putin stated that the situation in strategic stability continues to degrade. (FACT, Alex Parker Returns, TASS, РБК-Україна, Рыбарь, Оперативний ЗСУ, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Басурин о главном, Colonelcassad, ASTRA, БУТУСУ ПЛЮС, Север.Реалії, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ shares video from Uman during Rosh Hashanah with anti-Putin statements, which RF will likely dismiss or counter with claims of foreign interference. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ТАСС shares a photo and report that Trump will approve a TikTok deal with ByteDance this week, likely used to suggest US domestic concerns overshadow international support for Ukraine. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports discussions between Lavrov and US officials are being worked out for the UN General Assembly. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
• Internal Security: TASS reports that the FSB, МВД, and Rosgvardia seized 356 mines, 1,500 grenades, and over 250 kg of explosives from illegal arms dealers across 37 regions of Russia. TASS reports an arrest in Omsk for preparing contract murder of a cousin. The Russian Prosecutor General's Office demanded nationalization of St. Petersburg Humanitarian University of Trade Unions property. (FACT, TASS, Север.Реалії, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Север.Реалії reports a mobilized soldier's mother detained at a picket in Moscow has been out of contact for a day, suggesting an intent to suppress dissent. (FACT, Север.Реалії, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports a former head of Ples city had 1 billion rubles seized, indicating an intent to prosecute corruption or politically motivated financial crimes. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports the former wife of Sverdlovsk Vice-Governor Irina Chemezova denies guilt under house arrest, indicating an intent to pursue high-profile legal cases. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Два майора reports the detention of former State Duma deputy Ruslan Balbek, indicating an intent to target political figures, especially those from Crimea. (FACT, Два майора, Confidence: HIGH).
• Military Personnel Management: All conscripts drafted in the fall of 2025 will serve only on Russian territory, according to Russian military official Tsimlyansky. (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH).
• Technological Advancement: Russian Deputy Prime Minister Mishustin states that Russia will not achieve full technological sovereignty if it blindly follows microelectronics leaders. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports that Russia's decision to adhere to New START limits for a year after its expiration reflects a balanced and constructive approach by the country's leadership, according to Slutsky. This is designed to show RF as a responsible nuclear power. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations (Confidence: HIGH)

RF Tactical Changes:

• De-escalation in Air Attack Scale, Followed by Resurgence: A significant reduction in the scale of large-scale combined missile and UAV attacks, potentially for reconstitution, while maintaining persistent smaller-scale drone and КАБ attacks. The current multi-directional Shahed activity demonstrates an adaptation to disperse UAF air defense efforts. The concentration of 10 Shaheds on Brovary suggests RF is still capable of focusing smaller, harassing strikes on specific targets. The Sumy OVA head reports RF missile strikes (2 cruise) alongside a Shahed drone, indicating an adaptation to combine different air assets. The claimed interception of 114 UAF UAVs overnight indicates an adaptation to higher-tempo UAF drone operations. The confirmed use of КАБ in Zaporizhzhia (killing two, injuring two) highlights an adaptation to employ precision-guided aerial munitions against urban targets. The discovery of an unexploded КАБ in Zaporizhzhia indicates tactical adaptation in munition choice. The overnight launch of 141 enemy UAVs, including 80 Shaheds, against Ukraine suggests a renewed adaptation for significant, widespread drone attacks after a temporary lull. Zaporizhzhia OVA's report of 7-8 shells hitting residential buildings and critical infrastructure suggests RF adaptation to widespread damage with fewer, focused strikes. Operatsiya Z reports 'Geran' drones hit a UAF 156th Brigade deployment point, demonstrating adapted intelligence-led targeting. UAF Air Force reports launches of КАБ on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts, confirming adaptive use of guided aerial bombs. UAF Air Force reports a threat of ballistic missile launches from Taganrog, and on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts, confirming adaptive use of ballistic missiles. Воин DV shares video of RF Aerospace Forces (VKS RF) at work, suggesting adaptive use of VKS. RF is deploying "Hortenzia" drones, equipped with grenade launchers, for remote attacks on UAF, indicating adaptive drone weaponry. Sil'y Oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny reports 19 Shahed-136 drones were destroyed in the southern regions during the past day, suggesting RF adapted by continuing Shahed attacks despite UAF defenses. Colonelcassad reports 114 Ukrainian UAVs of airplane type were intercepted and destroyed overnight by air defense, demonstrating RF's adapted air defense response. RF tactical aviation activity reported in the southeastern direction. RF launched a missile strike on Bobrivka, Kharkiv district. Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast amid ballistic missile threat. Операция Z and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS share video of a "Geran" drone strike on an unspecified oil depot. A UAV is reported on the north of Sumy region. Missile strike reported in Pavlohrad, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. STERNENKO reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV operating over Pavlohrad, possibly correcting fire. Moment of overflight and strike of a reactive "Geran-3" on objects in Chernihiv Oblast. Two children were wounded in Belgorod district. (FACT, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Воин DV, Liveuamap Source, ТАСС, Сили оборони Півдня України, Colonelcassad, Kotsnews, Confidence: HIGH).
  • RF MoD reports 13 Ukrainian drones destroyed over Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts between 12:00 and 15:00 MSK, confirming continuous air defense adaptation. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Два майора shares video of an alleged UAF military convoy being destroyed by an aerial attack, demonstrating adaptive air-to-ground tactics. (FACT, Два майора, Confidence: HIGH).
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of a fuel station engulfed in flames in occupied Severodonetsk, with firefighters present. The caption suggests a drone hit a military truck at the station. This indicates RF's adaptive targeting of military-related infrastructure. (FACT, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern direction and launches of КАБ in Donetsk Oblast, indicating continued aerial adaptation. (FACT, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • UAF Air Force reports a threat of ballistic missile launches from Kursk. (FACT, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • РБК-Україна reports that "Shaheds" hit a school in Kramatorsk, confirming new RF strikes on civilian educational facilities in Donetsk Oblast and adaptive targeting of civilian infrastructure. (FACT, РБК-УкраїНА, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video captured by a Ukrainian firefighter showing a Russian "Shahed" drone hitting an oil depot just meters away. This confirms adaptive targeting of fuel infrastructure and a continued threat from "Shaheds." (FACT, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Confidence: HIGH).
  • A new drone group is reported in Kharkiv Oblast, heading towards Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. (FACT, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
• Targeting of UAF Logistics: Demonstrated capability and intent to strike UAF railway logistics with kamikaze UAVs (Pavlograd locomotive strike). The claimed "semi-encirclement" of a UAF logistics hub in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, if successful, would demonstrate a significant RF capability to disrupt UAF sustainment. TASS reports destruction of an ammunition depot and UAF robotic platforms, indicating adaptation to target UAF rear logistical and support assets. The damaged Ukrainian Railways passenger train in Poltava Oblast demonstrates adaptive targeting of civilian transport infrastructure. Операция Z and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS share video of a "Geran" drone strike on an unspecified oil depot, claimed by RF to be supplying Ukrainian forces, represents a potential logistical disruption for UAF. (FACT, TASS, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Операция Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video report from a Russian serviceman claiming that for 4 consecutive days, his comrades have been detonating on mines remotely dropped by Ukrainian heavy drones on RF logistical routes, indicating significant and persistent logistical disruptions. (FACT, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • STERNENKO shares drone footage showing UAF attacks on RF military vehicles and personnel on the Pokrovsk direction, which RF will need to adapt to. (FACT, STERNENKO, Confidence: HIGH).
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of a fuel station engulfed in flames in occupied Severodonetsk, with firefighters present. The caption suggests a drone hit a military truck at the station, indicating an adaptive targeting of military-related infrastructure. (FACT, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Операция Z shares a Politico article suggesting Russia can obtain US aircraft parts through Belarus, highlighting potential adaptive procurement strategies despite sanctions. (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH).
  • STERNENKO reports that the USA is trying to block the supply of aircraft parts to Russia via Belavia, confirming the strategic importance of this logistical pathway. (FACT, STERNENKO, Confidence: HIGH).
  • RF is attempting to soften sanctions on its aviation industry through ICAO, indicating adaptive efforts to alleviate logistical constraints. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
• Urban Special Operations: Use of special forces for clearing urban areas and capturing prisoners (Pokrovsk depot operation). The claim of a single trooper capturing a UAF strongpoint in Kamenskoye suggests a focus on small-unit infiltration. The targeting and destruction of UAF UAV control points in Dimitrov indicates an adaptation to degrade UAF drone capabilities directly. Colonelcassad reports on various RF units adapting to conduct assault operations against heavily fortified enemy positions, including urban environments, and using FPV drones. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition and Старше Эдды share video of a soldier examining captured UAF equipment. MoD Russia also shares details on the liberation of Olgovskoye (Olhivske). STERNENKO reports RF has intensified assault actions in the responsibility area of the 7th Corps of the Airborne Assault Troops. "Два майора" is fundraising for assault troops on the Slavyansk direction. Воин DV claims that the "Vostok" Group of Forces liberated another settlement in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast (Kalynivske), which includes aerial footage of military operations and flags being placed, indicating adaptive urban assault tactics. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares video of RF special forces using motorcycles for rapid assault on a fortified UAF position. (FACT, TASS, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Старше Эдды, MoD Russia, STERNENKO, Два майора, Воин DV, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Народная милиция ДНР shares video of the 'Metis' crew of the 238th Brigade targeting and eliminating UAF infantry in Stepanivka, indicating adaptive small-unit tactics. (FACT, Народная милиция ДНР, Confidence: HIGH).
  • WarGonzo shares a video of a soldier discussing tactics against FPV drones using a shotgun, indicating adaptive small-unit tactics for counter-drone operations. (FACT, WarGonzo, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Kotsnews shares video from the "liberation of Muravka," featuring RF assault troopers discussing tactical movements, minefields, and the engagement of fortified positions, demonstrating adaptive infantry tactics. (FACT, Kotsnews, Confidence: HIGH).
  • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a highly-pixelated and distorted video with explosions, captioned "Froze? We'll warm you up!", implying aggressive combat action by RF special forces. (FACT, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) shares drone footage of Ukrainian combatants reportedly detonating on mines in Stepanivka on the Konstantinovka direction, indicating RF's adaptive use of mine warfare. (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH).
• "Mother Drones": Reported deployment of "mother drones" to extend UAV operational range.
  • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares images of a "Molniya" UAV reportedly repurposed by RF as a "mother drone" for FPV drones, indicating this adaptive capability is real and deployed. (FACT, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Confidence: HIGH).
• Adaptive C2 (Local): Rapid, localized C2 responses and narrative control around UAF drone attacks in Crimea. Similarly, immediate airport restrictions in Sochi, Volgograd, Yaroslavl, and now Ivanovo airports demonstrate rapid tactical-level C2 responses to perceived threats. The reported fire at an electrical substation in Krasnodar Krai indicates a level of internal information flow. The coordination between Ka-52M helicopters and Igla missiles suggests effective real-time tactical C2 for air defense operations. The successful reprogramming of a captured UAF "Baba Yaga" drone demonstrates technical C2 effectiveness. The claim of a single trooper capturing a UAF strongpoint implies a degree of decentralized command initiative. RF sources claiming attacks on Patriot air defense systems near Kyiv suggests a coordinated targeting effort. Governor Slyusar's report of a "massive UAV attack repelled" in Rostov Oblast suggests an effective and coordinated C2 response. The claimed success of a drone-interceptor suggests effective tactical C2 for specialized counter-UAV operations. The claimed destruction of three UAF UAV control points in Dimitrov indicates effective tactical C2 for intelligence and targeting. The ZNPP director discusses forming the organizational structure of personnel according to RF legislation by end of 2025. The report of a signal from Moscow to limit funding for occupied territories suggests centralized control. The claim that UAF was unaware of RF presence in Muravka for a week suggests RF's capabilities for intelligence gathering. UAF claims of strikes on energy facilities in Yaroslavl and Kuban, if accurate, point to ongoing RF C2 challenges. The temporary traffic restrictions in Zaporizhzhia indicate local C2 response. The captured RF soldier's video implies that RF command is adapting to personnel shortages. Colonelcassad's reports suggest various RF units are adapting to night operations due to UAF drone activity. Kotsnews discusses the "isolation of the battlefield and subsidized Kyiv." TASS reports that dangerous item neutralization in Foros school has concluded. One of the deputy directors of the Ministry of Transport's security department in Rostov Oblast has been detained in a bribery case. About 60 flights are delayed at Sochi airport. Colonelcassad reports an air raid siren and instructions for civilians in Sevastopol. Peskov states Putin will make an important statement at an operational meeting with Security Council members. Putin is holding a meeting with members of the RF Security Council. TASS reports Peskov redirected questions about the UAF Crimea attack to the MoD. TASS reports the Kremlin dismissed Estonian claims of airspace violation. TASS: First Deputy Head of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky urban district Vladislav Maslo detained. TASS reports that the FSB, МВД, and Rosgvardia seized 356 mines, 1,500 grenades, and over 250 kg of explosives. ASTRA reports the mayor of Vladimir is accused of receiving a bribe. (FACT, TASS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Colonelcassad, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Kotsnews, ASTRA, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS confirms Saldo was in Moscow, demonstrating rapid and coordinated information control in response to UAF claims. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Putin discussing strategic planning and US missile defense systems, confirming high-level C2 adaptation to geopolitical threats. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Rybar shares video of Putin at a Security Council meeting discussing strategic stability and the New START treaty, indicating adaptive C2 at the highest levels. (FACT, Рыбарь, Confidence: HIGH).
  • AV БогомаZ shares photos of a formal meeting on a federal ecology project, indicating routine internal governmental C2 functions in Bryansk Oblast. (FACT, AV БогомаZ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS shares video of Commander Rakushev discussing an ambush for UAF near Muravka, DPR, indicating adaptive small-unit tactical C2. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Peskov denies accusations of Estonian airspace violation, calling them "empty and baseless," consistent with RF's adaptive C2 for diplomatic denials. (FACT, Север.Реалії, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Басурин о главном shares a video of Putin discussing strategic threats, stating "RF is ready to respond to any strategic threats, not in words, but with military-technical measures." This shows adaptive C2 at strategic level. (FACT, Басурин о главном, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports that Russia's decision to adhere to New START limits for a year after its expiration reflects a balanced and constructive approach by the country's leadership, according to Slutsky, demonstrating adaptive strategic messaging. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports discussions between Lavrov and US officials are being worked out for the UN General Assembly. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
• Enhanced Drone Reconnaissance/Strike: Demonstrated use of thermal-equipped drones ("Sever V" unit) for hunting UAF infantry. Use of "Orlan-10" UAVs for reconnaissance and targeting. The TASS video on RF FPV drone operators highlights the intensive and adaptive use of 40 drones for both reconnaissance and kinetic strikes. Persistent UAV activity in northern Chernihiv Oblast, heading south, indicates continued adaptive reconnaissance. RF 1st Tank Army FPV drone operators claiming a successful ambush near Borova demonstrates adaptive use of drones for tactical engagements. "Воин DV" explicitly states UAV operators are working to reduce enemy defensive potential. Colonelcassad's reports frequently mention the extensive use of FPV drones by both sides and the use of 'Baba Yaga' heavy attack drones. Colonelcassad claims drone operators of the 1466th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment are shooting down enemy agricultural drones. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Старше Эдды also share drone footage of strikes on military positions. Alex Parker Returns shares thermal imagery drone footage. MoD Russia also shares footage consistent with thermal or night vision use during combat operations in Olhivske. "Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН "Ахмат" video shows drone surveillance in Sumy Oblast. RF is deploying "Hortenzia" drones, equipped with grenade launchers. Colonelcassad's "Donbas" video uses drone footage and thermal imaging. Narodnaya miliiya DNR shares video of RF 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment shooting down UAF drones. Операция Z and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS share video of a "Geran" drone strike on an unspecified oil depot. Олексій Білошицький shares drone video of Zaporizhzhia aftermath. Moment of overflight and strike of a reactive "Geran-3" on objects in Chernihiv Oblast. (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, TASS, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Воин DV, Colonelcassad, Старше Эдды, Alex Parker Returns, MoD Russia, «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат», Народная милиция ДНР, Операция Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Олексій Білошицький, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Kadyrov_95 shares video of FPV drone attacks by the Sheikh Mansur rifle battalion on Ukrainian military positions and equipment in the Kharkiv direction, demonstrating continued adaptive drone warfare. (FACT, Kadyrov_95, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Kotsnews shares thermal imagery footage showing a Ukrainian hexacopter drone (R-18/LF240) being targeted and struck on the Kramatorsk-Druzhkovsk direction, indicating adaptive counter-UAV measures. (FACT, Kotsnews, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares images of a "Molniya" UAV reportedly repurposed by RF as a "mother drone" for FPV drones, highlighting adaptive drone capabilities. (FACT, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Kotsnews shares video from Muravka, which includes aerial reconnaissance footage of a wooded area, showing explosions and personnel movements. (FACT, Kotsnews, Confidence: HIGH).
• Counter-UAV Focus: Active measures to counter UAF drones, including specific targeting of "Baba Yaga" type drones. Demonstrated air-to-air drone interception capability using Ka-52M helicopters with Igla missiles. Adaptive reuse of captured UAF "Baba Yaga" drones. The deployment and success of a dedicated "drone-interceptor" unit further indicate a tactical adaptation. The RF FPV drone operator in Zaporizhzhia claimed to have repelled a UAF attack using 40 drones. The claimed interception of 114 UAF UAVs overnight demonstrates a significant and active RF counter-UAV capability. Colonelcassad's reports suggest various RF units are encountering and countering UAF FPV drones and 'Baba Yaga' drones. Colonelcassad claims drone operators of the 1466th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment are shooting down enemy agricultural drones. Басурин о главном shares a video of the aftermath of a drone attack in Donetsk. Operatyvny ZSU reports the SBU detained FSB agents who were supplying Ukrainian SIM cards to Russian kamikaze drones. Narodnaya miliiya DNR shares video of RF 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment shooting down UAF drones. Kotsnews shares video of a Russian drone operator not engaging Ukrainian humanitarian workers. (FACT, Colonelcassad, TASS, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Два майора, Басурин о главном, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Народная милиция ДНР, Kotsnews, Confidence: HIGH).
  • RF MoD reports 13 Ukrainian drones destroyed over Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts, indicating continued adaptive counter-UAV operations. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Два майора shares video of an alleged UAF military convoy being destroyed by an aerial attack, framed as a successful RF engagement that includes air defense elements. (FACT, Два майора, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Kotsnews shares thermal imagery footage showing a Ukrainian hexacopter drone (R-18/LF240) being targeted and struck on the Kramatorsk-Druzhkovsk direction. This confirms RF's adaptive counter-UAV capabilities are effective. (FACT, Kotsnews, Confidence: HIGH).
  • WarGonzo shares a video of a soldier discussing tactics against FPV drones using a shotgun, indicating adaptive small-unit tactics for counter-drone operations. (FACT, WarGonzo, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Alex Parker Returns shares video from Foros showing a sunset with faint lights, captioned "Attack on Foros. We must admit that air defense tried to repel the strike." This implies RF adaptive air defense efforts against UAF drones. (FACT, Alex Parker Returns, Confidence: HIGH).
• Engineering Adaptation (Mine Clearing): Deployment and successful testing of a laser mine-clearing system ("Posokh") indicates an adaptation to improve mobility. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
• Thermobaric Weaponry: Confirmed use of TOS-1A "Solntsepek" systems for concentrated thermobaric strikes on UAF strongpoints. MoD Russia shares a video of a TOS-1A Solntsepyok heavy flamethrower system smashing a stronghold of the AFU. (FACT, TASS, MoD Russia, Confidence: HIGH).
• Regional Air Connectivity (Normalization): Permission for Abkhazia airport to connect with RF cities suggests a strategic adaptation to normalize and integrate regions within RF's sphere of influence. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
• Military-Industrial Complex Development: Russia has offered India a proposal for the supply and localized production of Su-57 fighter jets. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
• Microelectronic Sovereignty: Russian Deputy Prime Minister Mishustin states that Russia will not achieve full technological sovereignty if it blindly follows microelectronics leaders. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
• Internal Security Operations: TASS reports that the FSB, МВД, and Rosgvardia seized 356 mines, 1,500 grenades, and over 250 kg of explosives from illegal arms dealers across 37 regions of Russia. Kotsnews shares a video on FSB revealing an underground arsenal network. TASS reports the detention of a St. Petersburg resident who organized the arson of a cell tower in Toksovo, Leningrad Oblast. (FACT, TASS, Kotsnews, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Два майора reports the detention of former State Duma deputy Ruslan Balbek, indicating adaptive internal security operations targeting political figures, possibly related to occupied territories. (FACT, Два майора, Confidence: HIGH).
• RF-EU Diplomatic Stance: TASS reports the Director of the Department of International Organizations of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kirill Logvinov, states there are no prerequisites for a substantive dialogue between Russia and the EU at the moment. This indicates an adaptive diplomatic posture, maintaining a hard line. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
• Воин DV shares photos of solemn events at the 40th Separate Guards Krasnodar-Kharbin Twice Red Banner Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet in Kamchatka, celebrating its 107th anniversary, indicating an adaptive focus on internal morale and glorifying military history. (FACT, Воин DV, Confidence: HIGH).
• Hungary's Position: TASS reports that Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó states that NATO countries' calls for a more aggressive response to airspace violations lead to further escalation. He also hopes there will be no escalation between NATO and Russia in the future. This indicates RF's adaptive use of diplomatic avenues to highlight its concerns. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
• RF EOD Operations: MoD Russia shares a video of the Zapad Group's 92nd EOD regiment defusing AFU explosives in liberated territories in the Lugansk People's Republic, demonstrating adaptive engineering and security operations. (FACT, MoD Russia, Confidence: HIGH).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status (Confidence: MEDIUM)

RF Logistics: Strained at the tactical level, as evidenced by localized equipment failures and inability to resupply under UAF drone pressure in Sumy Oblast. Reliance on non-governmental aid indicates state-level logistical challenges. Persistent fundraising appeals for frontline units underscore ongoing materiel and financial needs. However, RF also demonstrates the capability to produce new military equipment (SARM MLRS) and deploy specialized engineering systems (laser mine clearing). Economic strain from rising fuel prices and potential tax increases could indirectly impact logistical costs. The continued operation of multiple dispersed drone groups suggests that drone production and deployment can still be sustained. The cabinet's support for stripping acquired RF citizenship from draft evaders indicates a legislative effort to strengthen military recruitment. The restoration of air traffic to Abkhazia from RF cities could improve regional logistical flow. RBK-Ukraine reports a signal from Moscow to limit funding for occupied territories of Ukraine, which could impact sustainment or reconstruction efforts. The claimed "semi-encirclement" of a UAF logistics hub in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, if successful, would demonstrate a significant RF capability to disrupt UAF sustainment. The captured RF soldier's video implies severe logistical and medical supply issues. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's fundraising appeal confirms ongoing materiel needs. Colonelcassad's reports describe RF soldiers overcoming logistical challenges like improvising rafts. A UAF video shows a soldier struggling to obtain clean water near Pokrovsk, implying that RF is successfully disrupting UAF access to resources. Operatyvny ZSU reports the SBU detained FSB agents who were supplying Ukrainian SIM cards to Russian kamikaze drones, highlighting an RF logistical dependency on Ukrainian infrastructure for drone operations. "Два майора" is fundraising for assault troops on the Slavyansk direction. Colonelcassad is organizing a fundraiser for the "Autumn-Winter Campaign 2025". (FACT, TASS, РБК-Україна, Полиция Хабаровского края, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Fighterbomber, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Colonelcassad, БУТУСУ ПЛЮС, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора, Confidence: MEDIUM).

• Internal Security: TASS reports that the FSB, МВД, and Rosgvardia seized 356 mines, 1,500 grenades, and over 250 kg of explosives from illegal arms dealers across 37 regions of Russia. Kotsnews shares a video on FSB revealing an underground arsenal network. TASS reports the detention of a St. Petersburg resident who organized the arson of a cell tower in Toksovo, Leningrad Oblast. (FACT, TASS, Kotsnews, Confidence: HIGH).
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video report from a Russian serviceman claiming that for 4 consecutive days, his comrades have been detonating on mines remotely dropped by Ukrainian heavy drones on RF logistical routes, indicating significant and persistent logistical disruptions. (FACT, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of a fuel station engulfed in flames in occupied Severodonetsk, with firefighters present. The caption suggests a drone hit a military truck at the station, indicating a potential logistical setback for RF in occupied territories. (FACT, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Операция Z shares a Politico article suggesting Russia can obtain US aircraft parts through Belarus, highlighting potential circumvention of sanctions and sustainment strategies. (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH).
  • STERNENKO reports that the USA is trying to block the supply of aircraft parts to Russia via Belavia, confirming the strategic importance of this logistical pathway. (FACT, STERNENKO, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Colonelcassad is organizing a fundraiser for "assault troopers and scouts operating in the South Donetsk direction," appealing for drones, anti-drone equipment, and thermal imagers, indicating ongoing materiel needs for this axis. (FACT, Colonelcassad, Confidence: HIGH).
  • RF is attempting to soften sanctions on its aviation industry through ICAO, indicating a recognition of logistical challenges and efforts to alleviate them. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness (Confidence: MEDIUM)

RF C2: Degraded at tactical/operational levels, particularly in high-pressure environments, with reports of "complete confusion" in radio communications. Strategic C2 remains centralized, but the dismissal of General-Colonel Lapin suggests potential internal friction or efforts to improve C2 effectiveness. RF is demonstrating effective tactical coordination of special forces, drones, and artillery in specific ground operations. Their immediate and coordinated response to UAF strikes in Crimea indicates effective localized C2. The rapid implementation of flight restrictions at Sochi, Volgograd, Yaroslavl, and now Ivanovo airports suggests a functional, albeit reactive, localized C2 network for air security. The coordination between Ka-52M helicopters and Igla missiles suggests effective real-time tactical C2 for air defense operations. The successful reprogramming of a captured UAF "Baba Yaga" drone demonstrates technical C2 effectiveness. The claim of a single trooper capturing a UAF strongpoint implies a degree of decentralized command initiative. RF sources claiming attacks on Patriot air defense systems near Kyiv suggests a coordinated targeting effort. Governor Slyusar's report of a "massive UAV attack repelled" in Rostov Oblast suggests an effective and coordinated C2 response. The claimed success of a drone-interceptor suggests effective tactical C2 for specialized counter-UAV operations. The claimed destruction of three UAF UAV control points in Dimitrov indicates effective tactical C2 for intelligence and targeting. The ZNPP director discusses forming the organizational structure of personnel according to RF legislation by end of 2025. The report of a signal from Moscow to limit funding for occupied territories suggests centralized control. The claim that UAF was unaware of RF presence in Muravka for a week suggests RF's capabilities for intelligence gathering. UAF claims of strikes on energy facilities in Yaroslavl and Kuban, if accurate, point to ongoing RF C2 challenges. The temporary traffic restrictions in Zaporizhzhia indicate local C2 response. The captured RF soldier's video specifically blames RF command for their incompetence. The renewed large-scale drone attack (141 UAVs launched) indicates RF maintains the C2 capability to coordinate significant air assaults. TASS reports destruction of an ammunition depot and UAF robotic platforms, indicating effective C2 for intelligence, target acquisition, and engagement. Colonelcassad's detailed operational reports across various RF units suggest effective tactical C2 for ground offensives. Kotsnews discusses the "isolation of the battlefield and subsidized Kyiv." TASS reports that dangerous item neutralization in Foros school has concluded. One of the deputy directors of the Ministry of Transport's security department in Rostov Oblast has been detained in a bribery case. About 60 flights are delayed at Sochi airport. Colonelcassad reports an air raid siren and instructions for civilians in Sevastopol. Peskov states Putin will make an important statement at an operational meeting with Security Council members. Putin is holding a meeting with members of the RF Security Council. TASS reports Peskov redirected questions about the UAF Crimea attack to the MoD. TASS reports the Kremlin dismissed Estonian claims of airspace violation. TASS: First Deputy Head of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky urban district Vladislav Maslo detained. TASS reports that the FSB, МВД, and Rosgvardia seized 356 mines, 1,500 grenades, and over 250 kg of explosives. ASTRA reports the mayor of Vladimir is accused of receiving a bribe. (FACT, TASS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Colonelcassad, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Kotsnews, ASTRA, Confidence: HIGH).

• Military Personnel Management C2: All conscripts drafted in the fall of 2025 will serve only on Russian territory, according to Russian military official Tsimlyansky. (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH).
• Technological Sovereignty C2: Russian Deputy Prime President Mishustin states that Russia will not achieve full technological sovereignty if it blindly follows microelectronics leaders. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS confirms Saldo was in Moscow, refuting UAF claims, indicating effective internal C2 for information response regarding high-profile officials. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Putin discussing strategic planning and US missile defense systems, confirming C2 at the strategic level remains focused on geopolitical defense. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Rybar shares video of Putin at a Security Council meeting discussing strategic stability and the New START treaty, confirming centralized C2 for high-level security policy. (FACT, Рыбарь, Confidence: HIGH).
  • AV БогомаZ shares photos of a formal meeting on a federal ecology project, indicating C2 for domestic policy in Bryansk Oblast is functioning. (FACT, AV БогомаZ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS shares video of Commander Rakushev discussing an ambush for UAF near Muravka, DPR, indicating effective tactical C2 at the unit level. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports the Director of the Department of International Organizations of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kirill Logvinov, states there are no prerequisites for a substantive dialogue between Russia and the EU at the moment, indicating controlled diplomatic C2. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Воин DV shares photos of solemn events for a Marine Brigade, indicating C2 emphasis on morale and unit cohesion. (FACT, Воин DV, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Peskov denies accusations of Estonian airspace violation, calling them "empty and baseless," demonstrating RF's C2 over diplomatic denials. (FACT, Север.Реалії, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Басурин о главном shares a video of Putin discussing strategic threats, stating "RF is ready to respond to any strategic threats, not in words, but with military-technical measures." This highlights effective C2 in strategic messaging. (FACT, Басурин о главном, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports that Russia's decision to adhere to New START limits for a year after its expiration reflects a balanced and constructive approach by the country's leadership, according to Slutsky. This demonstrates C2 over strategic arms messaging. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports discussions between Lavrov and US officials are being worked out for the UN General Assembly. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports visa issuance for the Russian delegation to the UN General Assembly is ongoing, with not all visas yet received. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (Confidence: HIGH)

Posture: UAF maintains a resilient and active defensive posture across all major axes, with consistent repelling of RF assaults. UAF is conducting effective deep strike operations into occupied Crimea and RF territory, with a recent claim of striking Kanevskaya substation and energy facilities in Yaroslavl. Active monitoring and response to RF air activity are continuous, with current warnings for multiple drone groups. The 28th Mechanized Brigade is actively employing artillery to defend Konstantinovka. UAF SSO demonstrated successful urban clearing and prisoner capture on the Pokrovsk direction. UAF FPV drone units are effectively engaging RF personnel. UAF also utilizes larger attack drones ('Baba Yaga'). The situation in Kryvyi Rih is reported as controlled. UAF GUR "Ghosts" special unit successfully struck two Russian Be-12 "Chaika" amphibious aircraft and one Mi-8 helicopter in occupied Crimea. UAF FPV drone operators from the 414th UAV Brigade "Birds of Madyar" are publishing posthumous photos of Russian assault troops. UAF channels are observing a daily 09:00 minute of silence to commemorate fallen defenders. UAF Air Force reports a threat of ballistic missile launches from Taganrog, and on Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the "Sapsan" battalion of the 10th Army Corps has targeted and destroyed two enemy "Bukhanka" vehicles and one motorcycle. In Kharkiv, an action "Do not be silent. Captivity kills" was held in support of missing and captured defenders. UAF Khartia unit drone operators are actively engaging and destroying Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainian forces have repelled 6 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction. Pidrozdil Shadow shares drone footage of a destroyed building. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Special Operations Forces (SSO) struck a Russian S-400 "Triumph" air defense system in Kaluga Oblast. Serhii Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk OVA shares a video emphasizing empathy, showing a Ukrainian soldier who lost limbs undergoing rehabilitation. Ukrainian Naval Infantry (ВМС ЗСУ) conducting training exercises. A UAF video shows drone footage documenting military engagements, including destruction of armored vehicles or military hardware on the Pokrovsk direction, associated with the 14th Brigade of Operational Purpose "Chervona Kalyna." Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares multiple photo messages with the caption "In war, there is only the weapon that works here and now." Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of operators of heavy unmanned systems from the 426th Separate Battalion of Unmanned Systems, 30th Marine Corps, working at night. UAF General Staff reports that RF troops have fully exited Belarus. UAF is advancing on the Dobropillya direction. (FACT, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), STERNENKO, АSTRA, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Олександр Вілкул, БУТУСУ ПЛЮС, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Liveuamap Source, Підрозділ Shadow, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), ВМС ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH). * Oleksandr Vilkul shares photos of underground educational hubs being created in Kryvyi Rih, demonstrating adaptive measures for civilian protection and continuity of education. (FACT, Олександр Вілкул, Confidence: HIGH). * Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими reports a meeting with families of servicemen from the 225th Separate Assault Battalion, part of the 115th Separate Mechanized Brigade, highlighting ongoing support structures for military families. (FACT, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Confidence: HIGH). * Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts several photo messages with the caption "The resistance movement is a continuation of the underground and partisan struggle waged by our ancestors," reinforcing a historical narrative of resilience and popular support for defense. (FACT, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH). * UAF General Staff provides an updated operational summary as of 16:00 22.09.2025, detailing recent Russian invasion activities, indicating continuous reporting and operational awareness. (FACT, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH). * STERNENKO shares drone footage showing UAF attacks on RF military vehicles and personnel on the Pokrovsk direction, highlighting active UAF tactical engagements. (FACT, STERNENKO, Confidence: HIGH). * РБК-Україна reports that Poland and Sweden have for the first time in history started military exercises in the Baltic Sea. (FACT, РБК-Україна, Confidence: HIGH). * Оперативний ЗСУ reports Poland and Sweden are conducting joint exercises in the Baltic Sea, quoting the Polish Minister of Defense. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH). * Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України reports that the command of the Airborne Assault Troops (DSHV) has responded to accusations regarding the creation of assault troops, indicating an internal focus on organizational structure and effectiveness. (FACT, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Confidence: HIGH). * Оперативний ЗСУ shares a recruitment video encouraging Ukrainians to choose a military branch and specialty via army.gov.ua. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH). * Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares multiple photos of soldiers in training with various weapons, both Ukrainian and foreign, new and old, to demonstrate readiness and training. (FACT, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH). * Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of soldiers of the 95th Polissia Separate Air Assault Brigade using anti-aircraft FPV drones to destroy an expensive Russian "Forpost" reconnaissance drone in the Siversk direction, demonstrating active air defense successes. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH). * Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of soldiers of the 5th Assault Brigade successfully striking two guns and a self-propelled artillery unit (SAU) of the enemy, demonstrating effective counter-battery fire. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH). * ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares drone footage of the "Steel Border" brigade of the State Border Guard Service operating in Sumy Oblast, showing successful engagements against Russian forces in wooded areas, preventing them from approaching the contact line. (FACT, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Confidence: HIGH). * РБК-Україна reports that Zelenskyy proposed to the Rada to allow the deployment of Ukrainian Navy units abroad. (FACT, РБК-Україна, Confidence: HIGH).

• Readiness: UAF demonstrates high combat readiness, effectively repelling intense RF assaults and conducting complex air defense and deep strike operations. Adaptive capabilities, such as the formal establishment of "drone assault troops" and successful F-16 operations (previous report), are notable. However, ongoing fundraising shortfalls for critical supplies, and issues with fraudulent fundraising, highlight persistent resource constraints that could impact long-term readiness. The current distributed RF drone attacks will stress UAF air defense assets and personnel. The concentration of Shaheds on Brovary demonstrates that even smaller, focused attacks can challenge UAF's ability to protect specific areas due to resource constraints. The confirmed fires in residential buildings in Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast, with one injured, due to RF drone attacks indicate a partial penetration of UAF air defenses, raising concerns about readiness against persistent, dispersed attacks. RF propaganda efforts, portraying UAF police apprehending individuals for conscription, aim to undermine public trust and morale. The hit and injury in Sumy due to UAV attack also underscore these constraints. The 5 strikes on Zaporizhzhia (now with three fatalities and two wounded civilians) and 2 hits in Sumy (now with two injured civilians and missile strikes), resulting in damage to industrial, educational, and residential facilities, further highlight constraints on UAF air defense readiness. TASS reports five UAF servicemen surrendered in Sumy Oblast, indicating potential localized readiness issues. The claimed "semi-encirclement" of a UAF logistics hub in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, if successful, would pose a significant readiness challenge. TASS reports Igor Marochko's claim of Kiev losing ~4,500 soldiers and mercenaries in Luhansk Oblast in a week. UAF General Staff provides updated RF loss figures. Damage reported in two districts of Dnipropetropavsk Oblast from enemy fire further stresses UAF readiness in civilian protection. RF claims UAF failed to liberate encircled brigades in Kharkiv (MEDIUM - RF claim, unverified). The defection of Ukrainian judoka Yelyzaveta Lytvynenko to the UAE represents a minor, but potentially morale-impacting, loss. UAF Air Force reports 132/141 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed, indicating continuous pressure on UAF air defense readiness. The 7 settlements hit in Kharkiv Oblast further indicates continuous pressure on UAF readiness. The "Rubizh" brigade's fundraising for destroyed property and equipment underscores ongoing readiness challenges. DeepState reports UAF is launching a digital military accounting system "Impulse". A UAF video shows a soldier struggling to obtain clean water near Pokrovsk. Alex Parker Returns reports on a fraudulent fundraising campaign. The Office of the Prosecutor Prosecutor General's report on corruption schemes, draft evasion, and illegal border crossings highlights internal challenges to UAF readiness and personnel integrity. Operatyvny ZSU reports the SBU detained FSB agents who were supplying Ukrainian SIM cards to Russian kamikaze drones. РБК-Україна is supporting a fundraiser for cars for the 153rd Mechanized Brigade. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a fundraising graphic for EcoFlow DELTA 2 Max, parts for "combat horses," and equipment for the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade. STERNENKO shares a fundraising graphic for 350 FPV drones, including 40 Shahed interceptors. In Lviv, a college lecturer organized a scheme for draft evasion. Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration posts a graphic about new opportunities for defenders. The decreased enemy activity in Sumy Oblast in September could also indicate a lull before renewed RF pressure, which would constrain UAF resources. (FACT, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, TASS, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація, Десантно-штурмові війські ЗС України, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, БУТУСУ ПЛЮС, Alex Parker Returns, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv OVA, reports 840 million UAH allocated for the protection of energy facilities in the Kharkiv region, demonstrating proactive measures to enhance readiness against RF strikes. (FACT, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the SBU has sentenced a kindergarten security guard to 15 years for adjusting RF strikes on Zaporizhzhia, highlighting ongoing counter-espionage efforts critical to UAF readiness. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Операция Z reports on a priest being caught for accepting $10,000 to consecrate a draft dodger as a deacon to avoid mobilization, highlighting internal UAF issues that RF may exploit. (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH).
• Digital Military Accounting System: The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine is deploying a digital military accounting system "Impulse," which will streamline personnel management. (FACT, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
• Naval Infantry Training: Ukrainian Naval Infantry (ВМС ЗСУ) conducting training exercises, focusing on crossing water obstacles. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
• Poland Airspace: Poland does not intend to shoot down objects violating its airspace on its own. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ASTRA reports that Poland will shoot down any objects violating its airspace, but only "if they are completely clear." This contradicts a previous report about Tusk's statement, and reflects internal debate or differing opinions within Poland's leadership regarding airspace security protocols. (FACT, ASTRA, Confidence: HIGH).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (Confidence: HIGH)

Successes:

• Air Defense: UAF FPV drones successfully intercepted two Russian Lancet drones on the Siversk direction. UAF air defense has successfully intercepted/suppressed 132 out of 141 RF UAVs overnight, demonstrating sustained effectiveness against larger waves. UAF air defense actively engaged in Kyiv Oblast. UAF shot down a "Geran" (Shahed) drone. Sil'y Oborony Pivdnya Ukrayiny reports 19 Shahed-136 drones were destroyed. A loud explosion heard by Zaporizhzhia residents was identified as air defense activity. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), ASTRA, Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц", Сили оборони Півдня України, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of soldiers of the 95th Polissia Separate Air Assault Brigade using anti-aircraft FPV drones to destroy an expensive Russian "Forpost" reconnaissance drone, costing nearly $7 million, in the Siversk direction, confirming a significant air defense success against a high-value RF asset. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
• Deep Strikes: Successful drone attacks on RF oil refineries, oil depots, three Mi-8 helicopters, and a Nebo-U radar system in Crimea. UAF drone attacks on the "Foros" sanatorium and a school/pension in Crimea, resulting in casualties and damage. UAF has claimed responsibility for a UAV strike on the Kanevskaya electrical substation in Krasnodar Krai, RF. Further drone attacks on Slavyansk-on-Kuban. UAF operations in Belgorod Oblast, resulting in 3 fatalities and 10 wounded. UAF Defense Forces confirm strikes on enemy energy facilities in Yaroslavl and Kuban. A UAF UAV detonated near the Belgorod city administration building, injuring two people. UAF GUR "Ghosts" special unit successfully struck two Russian Be-12 "Chaika" amphibious aircraft and one Mi-8 helicopter in occupied Crimea. БУТУСУ ПЛЮС provides video evidence from the GUR "Prymary" unit. STERNENKO also reports drones hitting the Kanevskaya traction substation in Kuban overnight. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the General Staff claims the UAF destroyed two enemy UAV and ammunition depots. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Special Operations Forces (SSO) struck a Russian S-400 "Triumph" air defense system in Kaluga Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк also provides video of the aftermath of a helicopter crash. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of the aftermath of a GUR drone strike on a Mi-8 helicopter in occupied Crimea. (FACT, КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno, TASS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, БУТУСУ ПЛЮС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video displaying wreckage of at least two aircraft, including a heavily damaged Mi-24 attack helicopter, in Crimea, corroborating the GUR strike. (FACT, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Confidence: HIGH).
• Ground Operations: UAF repelled over 80 RF combat engagements in the last 24 hours, eliminated an RF breakthrough near Pokrovsk. UAF SSO successfully cleared a depot and captured nine RF soldiers on the Pokrovsk direction. Confirmed liberation of Pankivka and Zarichne, Donetsk Oblast. UAF FPV drones successfully neutralized two RF personnel. UAF 28th Mechanized Brigade artillery is effectively engaging RF advances on Konstantinovka. UAF General Staff maps show successful repulsion of RF assaults. UAF FPV drone operators from the 414th UAV Brigade "Birds of Madyar" are inflicting significant casualties on RF assault troops. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the "Sapsan" battalion of the 10th Army Corps has targeted and destroyed two enemy "Bukhanka" vehicles and one motorcycle. UAF Khartia unit drone operators are actively engaging and destroying Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainian forces have repelled 6 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction. Pidrozdil Shadow shares drone footage of a destroyed building. A UAF video shows drone footage documenting military engagements, including destruction of armored vehicles or military hardware on the Pokrovsk direction, associated with the 14th Brigade of Operational Purpose "Chervona Kalyna." UAF is advancing on the Dobropillya direction, having liberated 164.5 sq. km. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, БУТУСУ ПЛЮС, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Liveuamap Source, Підрозділ Shadow, РБК-Україна, Confidence: HIGH).
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video report from a Russian serviceman claiming that for 4 consecutive days, his comrades have been detonating on mines remotely dropped by Ukrainian heavy drones on RF logistical routes, indicating successful UAF drone mining operations. (FACT, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • STERNENKO shares drone footage showing UAF attacks on RF military vehicles and personnel on the Pokrovsk direction, demonstrating successful interdiction. (FACT, STERNENKO, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of soldiers of the 5th Assault Brigade successfully striking two guns and a self-propelled artillery unit (SAU) of the enemy, demonstrating effective counter-battery fire against RF targets. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares drone footage of the "Steel Border" brigade of the State Border Guard Service operating in Sumy Oblast, showing successful engagements against Russian forces in wooded areas, preventing them from approaching the contact line. (FACT, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Confidence: HIGH).
• Counter-Armor: Successful UAF strike on a Russian "Terminator" armored vehicle and destruction of an RF IMP-3M engineering vehicle.
• Kryvyi Rih: Situation controlled in Kryvyi Rih indicates successful maintenance of local security and defensive posture. Over 1 million free food kits distributed. Curfew changed to 24:00 - 05:00. (FACT, Олександр Вілкул, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Oleksandr Vilkul shares photos of underground educational hubs being created in Kryvyi Rih, demonstrating successful adaptation to wartime conditions for civilian infrastructure. (FACT, Олександр Вілкул, Confidence: HIGH).
• Internal Security/Counter-Intelligence: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports that specialized defense prosecutors are systematically exposing and prosecuting individuals involved in corruption schemes, organizing draft evasion, and illegal border crossings. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the SBU detained FSB agents who were supplying Ukrainian SIM cards to Russian kamikaze drones. SBU materials have led to suspicion notices for 147 individuals working with Russia in Crimea in 2025. (FACT, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report a former UGO employee who killed a teenager in Kyiv was sentenced to life imprisonment, demonstrating the rule of law on domestic issues. (FACT, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH). The Prosecutor General of Ukraine, Ruslan Kravchenko, provided additional commentary on the case, emphasizing the severe nature of the crime and the pursuit of justice. (FACT, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the SBU has sentenced a kindergarten security guard to 15 years for adjusting RF strikes on Zaporizhzhia, highlighting ongoing counter-espionage successes. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
• Military Accounting System: The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine is deploying a digital military accounting system "Impulse," which will streamline personnel management. (FACT, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
• RF Troop Withdrawal from Belarus: UAF General Staff reports that RF troops have fully exited Belarus after joint "strategic" exercises "West-2025." (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
• Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими reports a meeting with families of servicemen from the 225th Separate Assault Battalion, part of the 115th Separate Mechanized Brigade, demonstrating ongoing support for military families. (FACT, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Confidence: HIGH).
• У Сенаті США винесено на розгляд новий двопартійний законопроект щодо конфіскації заморожених активів рф, — Sky News. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
• РБК-Україна reports that Poland and Sweden have for the first time in history started military exercises in the Baltic Sea. (FACT, РБК-Україна, Confidence: HIGH).
• Оперативний ЗСУ reports Poland and Sweden are conducting joint exercises in the Baltic Sea, quoting the Polish Minister of Defense. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України reports that the command of the Airborne Assault Troops (DSHV) has responded to accusations regarding the creation of assault troops, demonstrating internal cohesion and addressing concerns. (FACT, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ shares a recruitment video encouraging Ukrainians to choose a military branch and specialty via army.gov.ua, which is a positive sign for recruitment and morale. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).

Setbacks:

• Civilian Casualties/Infrastructure Damage: Explosion near Lviv (unconfirmed cause) and continued civilian casualties from RF strikes (Konstantinovka). Damage to a school/pension in Crimea from UAF drone attack, resulting in 3 fatalities and 16 wounded (RF MoD claim). TASS reports 4 wounded in serious condition, 2 in intensive care. Sever.Realii confirms 3 fatalities. Multiple ongoing RF drone attacks targeting various civilian areas. 10 Shaheds inbound to Brovary highlights the persistent threat. Confirmed damage and fires to residential buildings in Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast, from RF drone attacks, with one person injured. The incident in Slavyansk-on-Kuban, with an RF missile booster hitting a residential building, is a setback for RF internal security. The images of extensive damage in Myrnohrad, near Pokrovsk, highlight the devastating impact of prolonged conflict. RF attack on civilian infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, causing fire and vehicle damage. Hit in Sumy region due to UAV attack, resulting in one injured person. 5 strikes by RF on civilian infrastructure and industrial facilities in Zaporizhzhia. Two Shahed drones hit industrial and educational facilities in Sumy, with damage to residential buildings. Security guard injured in Sumy due to UAV attack on enterprise. CRITICAL: Three dead and two wounded in Zaporizhzhia due to the RF attack. The acting mayor of Sumy confirms missile strikes (2 cruise) alongside a Shahed drone, with one injured civilian. STERNENKO reports RF hit Zaporizhzhia with КАБ. There is a possibility that a person is under the rubble of a destroyed private house in Zaporizhzhia. Two districts in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast were under enemy fire, causing damage to residential buildings. The body of a 75-year-old woman was recovered from under rubble in Zaporizhzhia. 7 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes. Zaporizhzhia OVA's report of 7-8 shells hitting residential buildings and civilian vehicles. Videos from Zaporizhzhia OVA and Оперативний ЗСУ, and Zelenskiy / Official corroborate extensive damage to civilian infrastructure. A video from RF sources (Два майора) shows extensive damage inside a classroom of the A.S. Terletsky secondary school in Foros, Crimea. TASS confirms dangerous item neutralization in Foros school. Басурин о главном shares a video of the aftermath of a drone attack in Donetsk. РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ show videos of a damaged Ukrainian Railways (UZ) passenger train in Poltava Oblast. An explosion was heard in Kharkiv. RF launched a missile strike on Bobrivka, Kharkiv district. Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast amid ballistic missile threat. Олексій Білошицький shares drone video of Zaporizhzhia aftermath. Missile strike reported in Pavlohrad, Dnipropetropavsk Oblast. The Office of the Prosecutor General posts photos with the caption "Only three of the promised ten modular houses have been built for residents of the village of Moshchun in the Kyiv region." Two children were wounded in Belgorod district as a result of drone attack. RF is shelling Horlivka, DNR. (FACT, РБК-Україна, TASS, Операция Z, ASTRA, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Colonelcassad, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація, STERNENKO, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Zelenskiy / Official, Север.Реалії, Два майора, Басурин о главном, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Kotsnews, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Операция Z reports 4 wounded in Belgorod Oblast, two of them children, due to UAF attacks, an increase in reported civilian casualties. (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports preliminary damage from the attack on Foros exceeds 18.7 million rubles, quantifying the financial impact of the strike. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Mash na Donbasse shares video of a gas station on fire after a drone strike in Severodonetsk, indicating damage to infrastructure. (FACT, Mash на Донбассе, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration shares video depicting extensive destruction to residential buildings and infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia from missile strikes. (FACT, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Confidence: HIGH).
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of a fuel station engulfed in flames in occupied Severodonetsk, with firefighters present. The caption suggests a drone hit a military truck at the station. This represents damage to infrastructure. (FACT, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Colonelcassad reports a drone attack on a vehicle with children in Belgorod Oblast, exacerbating the civilian casualty narrative. (FACT, Colonelcassad, Confidence: HIGH).
  • UAF Air Force reports a threat of ballistic missile launches from Kursk. (FACT, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
  • РБК-Україна reports that "Shaheds" hit a school in Kramatorsk, confirming new RF strikes on civilian educational facilities in Donetsk Oblast and highlighting ongoing civilian casualties. (FACT, РБК-УкраїНА, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video captured by a Ukrainian firefighter showing a Russian "Shahed" drone hitting an oil depot just meters away. This represents a civilian safety setback and infrastructure damage. (FACT, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Damage to the contact line of public transport on Akademika Glushkova Avenue in Kyiv has complicated traffic in both directions. (FACT, РБК-Україна, Confidence: HIGH).
  • A new drone group is reported in Kharkiv Oblast, heading towards Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. (FACT, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Confidence: HIGH).
• Logistical Disruption: Kamikaze UAV strike on a UAF locomotive near Pavlograd. The claimed "semi-encirclement" of a UAF logistics hub in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast, if verified, represents a significant operational setback for UAF logistics. Temporary traffic restrictions in Zaporizhzhia due to damage indicate disruption to local movement. A UAF video shows a soldier struggling to obtain clean water near Pokrovsk. STERNENKO reports RF is attempting to block UAF logistical routes. A drone video from RF sources showing "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes on an unspecified oil depot, claimed by RF to be supplying Ukrainian forces, represents a potential logistical disruption for UAF. (FACT, TASS, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація, БУТУСУ ПЛЮС, STERNENKO, Операция Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video report from a Russian serviceman claiming that for 4 consecutive days, his comrades have been detonating on mines remotely dropped by Ukrainian heavy drones on RF logistical routes, indicating successful UAF disruption of RF logistics. (FACT, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Confidence: HIGH).
• Resource Constraints: Munitions depletion for air defense, potential fluctuations in Western aid, vulnerabilities in logistical networks, and challenges with public support and legitimate fundraising efforts. The disavowal of a fraudulent fundraising campaign highlights a significant constraint on public trust. The current wave of dispersed RF drone attacks will place a significant strain on finite UAF air defense resources and personnel, particularly with the renewed large-scale attack (141 UAVs launched overnight). The concentration of Shaheds on Brovary demonstrates that even smaller, focused attacks can challenge UAF's ability to protect specific areas due to resource constraints. RF's propaganda regarding "man-catchers" might also affect recruitment. The confirmed residential fires in Kyiv Oblast highlight the persistent challenge of 100% interception against sustained drone threats, pointing to existing constraints. The hit and injury in Sumy due to UAV attack also underscore these constraints. The 5 strikes on Zaporizhzhia (now with three fatalities and two wounded civilians) and 2 hits in Sumy (now with two injured civilians and missile strikes), resulting in damage to industrial, educational, and residential facilities, further highlight constraints on UAF air defense. The signal from Moscow to limit funding for occupied territories could indirectly impact UAF counter-efforts. TASS reports Igor Marochko's claim of Kiev losing ~4,500 soldiers and mercenaries in Luhansk Oblast in a week. Damage to residential buildings in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast from enemy fire further highlights constraints. RF claims UAF failed to liberate encircled brigades in Kharkiv (MEDIUM - RF claim, unverified). The temporary traffic restrictions in Zaporizhzhia due to damage indicate infrastructure constraints. The defection of a prominent Ukrainian athlete (Yelyzaveta Lytvynenko) may reflect potential soft power losses. The widespread damage across four districts in Kyiv Oblast stretches rescue and recovery resources. The discovery of an unexploded КАБ in Zaporizhzhia presents an additional constraint. A UAF video shows a soldier struggling to obtain clean water near Pokrovsk, highlighting severe logistical constraints for frontline units. Alex Parker Returns reports on a fraudulent fundraising campaign. The Office of the Prosecutor General's report on corruption schemes, draft evasion, and illegal border crossings highlights internal challenges to resource management and personnel integrity. In Lviv, a college lecturer organized a scheme for draft evasion. The decreased enemy activity in Sumy Oblast in September could also indicate a lull before renewed RF pressure, which would constrain UAF resources. (FACT, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, TASS, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, БУТУСУ ПЛЮС, Alex Parker Returns, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Операция Z reports on a priest being caught for accepting $10,000 to consecrate a draft dodger as a deacon to avoid mobilization, highlighting internal UAF issues that RF may exploit and that could constrain personnel readiness. (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Николаевский Ванёк shares a link to a bank for donations, indicating ongoing UAF fundraising efforts to address resource constraints. (FACT, Николаевский Ванёк, Confidence: HIGH).
• Drone Losses: Destruction of a UAF "Baba Yaga" drone by RF airborne troops. RF claims a Ka-52M helicopter crew destroyed three drones, likely UAF. The reported reprogramming of a captured UAF "Baba Yaga" drone for use against UAF represents a loss of critical technology. The destruction of three UAF UAV control points in Dimitrov represents a significant setback. The RF FPV drone operator in Zaporizhzhia claimed to have repelled a UAF attack using 40 drones. RF MoD claims 114 UAF UAVs intercepted overnight across RF regions. UAF Air Force reports 9 UAVs successfully penetrated air defenses out of 141 launched, indicating limited penetration by RF drones. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the General Staff claims the UAF destroyed two enemy UAV and ammunition depots. TASS reports destruction of an ammunition depot and two UAF robotic ground platforms. Народная милиция ДНР shares video of the 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment shooting down UAF drones. STERNENKO shares video of another Merlin-VR ($300,000) being destroyed. (FACT, Colonelcassad, TASS, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, ASTRA, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Народная милиция ДНР, STERNENKO, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Kotsnews shares thermal imagery footage showing a Ukrainian hexacopter drone (R-18/LF240) being targeted and struck on the Kramatorsk-Druzhkovsk direction. This confirms UAF drone losses due to RF counter-UAV capabilities. (FACT, Kotsnews, Confidence: HIGH).
• Personnel Losses/Defections: TASS reports five UAF servicemen surrendered to the Russian army in Sumy Oblast. TASS reports Igor Marochko's claim of Kiev losing ~4,500 soldiers and mercenaries in Luhansk Oblast in a week. RF claims UAF failed to liberate encircled brigades in Kharkiv, suffering losses and retreating (MEDIUM - RF claim, unverified). The defection of Ukrainian judoka Yelyzaveta Lytvynenko to the UAE represents a minor loss. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF left dozens of bodies of fellow servicemen in Olhivske (LOW - verification). Бутусов Плюс shares a video depicting RF infantry engaging in what is described as "double suicide," which could indicate high UAF effectiveness in close-quarters combat. (FACT, TASS, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, БУТУСУ ПЛЮС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Операция Z reports on a priest being caught for accepting $10,000 to consecrate a draft dodger as a deacon to avoid mobilization, highlighting internal UAF issues. (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH).
• Information Operations (RF Exploitation of Internal Security): RF is actively disseminating videos attempting to portray UAF police as "man-catchers" forcibly conscripting individuals. Alex Parker Returns reports on a fraudulent fundraising campaign for the UAF involving Arestovich. The Office of the Prosecutor General's report on corruption schemes, draft evasion, and illegal border crossings, while showcasing UAF's efforts, inherently highlights their existence, which can be exploited by RF information operations. In Lviv, a college lecturer organized a scheme for draft evasion. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) shares multiple videos purporting to show Ukrainian Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCC) engaging in "genocide of the population of Ukraine." (FACT, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH).
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares photo messages about the "trajectory of lies" of Russian Z-bloggers, highlighting their shifting narratives about the war and the need for more mobilization. This is a UAF information operation to counter RF narratives. (FACT, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Confidence: HIGH).
• RF Situational Awareness Claim: RF claims UAF was unaware of RF presence in Muravka for a week (LOW - verification). (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH - of claim).
• Reduced Activity in Sumy Oblast: In September, enemy activity in Sumy Oblast has noticeably decreased. (FACT, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Confidence: HIGH).
• Contradictory Reports on Kalynivske: RF claims to have captured Kalynivske, but UAF has denied this claim. (FACT, РБК-Україна, Confidence: HIGH).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (Confidence: HIGH)

Requirements: Critical need for advanced air defense systems and munitions (especially for Shahed interceptors), anti-drone capabilities, and long-range precision strike assets. Ongoing requirements for engineering assets (including mine clearing capabilities), personnel, training, and medical supplies. Continued financial support for units through legitimate fundraising is vital. Specific need for additional mobile air defense and EW assets to counter distributed, multi-axis drone attacks, particularly in urban areas currently under threat (e.g., Kyiv Oblast, including Brovary, and Sumy Oblast, Zaporizhzhia Oblast). Immediate requirements for humanitarian aid and medical support for civilians impacted by strikes in Zaporizhzhia (three fatalities, two wounded, and potentially one more under rubble, including a confirmed 75-year-old female casualty found) and Sumy (two injured civilians), and Dnipropetropavsk Oblast (residential damage), and for those impacted by the damaged train in Poltava Oblast. Increased air defense and civilian protection resources are required in Kharkiv Oblast following enemy strikes on 7 settlements and the new missile strike on Bobrivka. Immediate resources are needed to address severe logistical challenges, particularly access to clean water, in frontline areas like Pokrovsk. Resources are needed to support missing and captured defenders, as highlighted by the Kharkiv action. РБК-Україна is supporting a fundraiser for cars for the 153rd Mechanized Brigade. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a fundraising graphic for EcoFlow DELTA 2 Max, parts for "combat horses," and equipment for the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade. STERNENKO shares a fundraising graphic for 350 FPV drones, including 40 Shahed interceptors. (FACT, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, БУТУСУ ПЛЮС, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Confidence: HIGH). * Oleg Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv OVA, reports 840 million UAH allocated for the protection of energy facilities in the Kharkiv region, demonstrating a critical resource requirement being met. (FACT, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Confidence: HIGH). * Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими reports a meeting with families of servicemen from the 225th Separate Assault Battalion, highlighting the ongoing human and support requirements for military families. (FACT, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Confidence: HIGH). * У Сенаті США винесено на розгляд новий двопартійний законопроект щодо конфіскації заморожених активів рф, — Sky News. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH). If passed, this could provide significant additional resources. * РБК-Україна reports a "bunker boom" in Germany, indicating increased demand for civilian protection infrastructure in NATO countries. (FACT, РБК-Україна, Confidence: HIGH). * Николаевский Ванёк shares a link to a bank for donations, indicating ongoing UAF fundraising efforts for critical resources. (FACT, Николаевский Ванёк, Confidence: HIGH). * Colonelcassad is organizing a fundraiser for "assault troopers and scouts operating in the South Donetsk direction," appealing for drones, anti-drone equipment, and thermal imagers, indicating ongoing materiel needs for this axis. (FACT, Colonelcassad, Confidence: HIGH). Constraints: Munitions depletion for air defense, potential fluctuations in Western aid, vulnerabilities in logistical networks, and challenges with public support and legitimate fundraising efforts. The disavowal of a fraudulent fundraising campaign highlights a significant constraint on public trust. The current wave of dispersed RF drone attacks will place a significant strain on finite UAF air defense resources and personnel, particularly with the renewed large-scale attack (141 UAVs launched overnight). The concentration of Shaheds on Brovary demonstrates that even smaller, focused attacks can challenge UAF's ability to protect specific areas due to resource constraints. RF's propaganda regarding "man-catchers" might also affect recruitment. The confirmed residential fires in Kyiv Oblast highlight the persistent challenge of 100% interception against sustained drone threats, pointing to existing constraints. The hit and injury in Sumy due to UAV attack also underscore these constraints. The 5 strikes on Zaporizhzhia (now with three fatalities and two wounded civilians) and 2 hits in Sumy (now with two injured civilians and missile strikes), resulting in damage to industrial, educational, and residential facilities, further highlight constraints on UAF air defense. The signal from Moscow to limit funding for occupied territories could indirectly impact UAF counter-efforts. TASS reports Igor Marochko's claim of Kiev losing ~4,500 soldiers and mercenaries in Luhansk Oblast in a week. Damage to residential buildings in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast from enemy fire further highlights constraints. RF claims UAF failed to liberate encircled brigades in Kharkiv (MEDIUM - RF claim, unverified). The temporary traffic restrictions in Zaporizhzhia due to damage indicate infrastructure constraints. The defection of a prominent Ukrainian athlete (Yelyzaveta Lytvynenko) may reflect potential soft power losses. The widespread damage across four districts in Kyiv Oblast stretches rescue and recovery resources. The discovery of an unexploded КАБ in Zaporizhzhia presents an additional constraint. A UAF video shows a soldier struggling to obtain clean water near Pokrovsk, highlighting severe logistical constraints for frontline units. Alex Parker Returns reports on a fraudulent fundraising campaign. The Office of the Prosecutor General's report on corruption schemes, draft evasion, and illegal border crossings highlights internal challenges to resource management and personnel integrity. In Lviv, a college lecturer organized a scheme for draft evasion. The decreased enemy activity in Sumy Oblast in September could also indicate a lull before renewed RF pressure, which would constrain UAF resources. (FACT, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, TASS, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, БУТУСУ ПЛЮС, Alex Parker Returns, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Confidence: HIGH). * Операция Z reports on a priest being caught for accepting $10,000 to consecrate a draft dodger as a deacon to avoid mobilization, highlighting internal UAF issues that RF may exploit and that could constrain personnel readiness. (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH). * STERNENKO reports that the USA is trying to block the supply of aircraft parts to Russia via Belavia, highlighting ongoing constraints on RF logistics and the need for UAF/allies to maintain this pressure. (FACT, STERNENKO, Confidence: HIGH).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (Confidence: HIGH)

RF Propaganda/Disinformation:

• Narrative of Victory/Control: RF continues to push narratives of successful operations and territorial gains, aimed at boosting domestic morale and projecting strength. RF MoD frames the UAF attack on Crimea as a "premeditated terrorist attack on civilian objects" to delegitimize UAF actions and generate outrage, emphasizing civilian casualties, now updated to "3 killed, 16 wounded, with 4 serious, 2 in ICU, and 3 confirmed fatalities by Sever.Realii." RF political figures are directly amplifying this narrative, framing it as Kyiv targeting children. The dismissal of Gen. Lapin is likely to be downplayed or spun as routine. RF claims of destroying UAF deployment points, intercepting UAF drones, and destroying UAF strongpoints are used to project military effectiveness. RF is leveraging the successful testing of its "Posokh" laser mine-clearing system to showcase technological advancement. RF is publicizing the reprogramming of a captured UAF "Baba Yaga" drone for use against UAF. RF is using drone footage of heavily damaged civilian infrastructure in Myrnohrad, near Pokrovsk, to implicitly blame UAF. TASS reports an RF assault trooper claims to have single-handedly captured a UAF strongpoint. RF sources are also claiming to have attacked a Patriot air defense system near Kyiv. Colonelcassad's claim of a Russian drone-interceptor successfully shooting down Ukrainian UAVs serves to project RF air superiority. The video of a destroyed village, attributed to the 98th Airborne Division, is likely used to portray RF operational effectiveness. The claim by Marochko of improved RF positions near Yampol and Kremenna will be used to demonstrate continued battlefield success. The targeting and destruction of UAF UAV control points in Dimitrov will be amplified. Rybar provides a "Chronicle of the SMO for September 20-21," serving as a consolidated narrative. The "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" channel's "Good morning!" message is a routine morale booster. The TASS video featuring an RF FPV drone operator discussing repelling a UAF attack in Zaporizhzhia using 40 drones will be used to project RF defensive and counter-UAV capabilities. The claim of a "semi-encirclement" of a UAF logistics hub in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast will be amplified. TASS reports Igor Marochko's claim of Kiev losing ~4,500 soldiers and mercenaries in Luhansk Oblast in a week. The director of ZNPP discussing the plant's integration under RF law by end of 2025 will be used to project a narrative of normalized control. RF MoD claims 114 UAF UAVs intercepted overnight. The Fighterbomber's "Good morning" message reinforces morale. The TASS claim about UAF being unaware of RF presence in Muravka aims to portray UAF C2 failures. TASS claims that US citizens are recognizing Biden's "false narratives." The inclusion of footballer Artem Dzyuba on Myrotvorets will be framed by TASS as Ukrainian extremism. RF sources (TASS, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) claim UAF was unable to liberate encircled brigades in Kharkiv. RF claims "5 strikes were carried out on Zaporizhzhia. Industrial and infrastructure facilities of the enemy were attacked." WarGonzo's frontline summary will reinforce narratives of RF success. Arkhangel Spetsnaza's "Good morning" reinforces morale. TASS continues to publish imagery of the damaged school in Foros, Crimea. The RF media report on the Kupiansk direction shows active drone reconnaissance/strike operations by RF. "Воин DV" claims continued offensive from liberated Novoivanivka and Olhivske. Colonelcassad reports detailed accounts of RF units liberating Malynivka, Poddubnoye, Dachnoye, Novoukrainka, and Novoselovka. Operatsiya Z reports 'Geran' drones hitting a UAF 156th Brigade deployment point. TASS reports destruction of an ammunition depot and UAF robotic platforms. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Старше Эдды share video evidence of ground operations and captured UAF equipment in Olhivske. MoD Russia also shares details on the liberation of Olgovskoye (Olhivske). Басурин о главном posts on "DAY in HISTORY." Kotsnews discusses the "isolation of the battlefield and subsidized Kyiv." Басурин о главном shares a video with the caption "Kyiv regime has finally dropped its mask and demonstrates its true essence – a terrorist organization." The TASS video of damage to a school in Crimea after a UAF drone attack is designed to generate outrage. "Два майора" is using its platform to fundraise for assault troops on the Slavyansk direction. The woman in the Butusov Plus video expresses strong anti-Western sentiments, implying a desire for stronger leadership. Vladimir Konstantinov states "Kiev regime will be punished." Воин DV claims that the "Vostok" Group of Forces liberated another settlement in Dnipropetropavsk Oblast (Kalynivske). MoD Russia shares a video of a TOS-1A Solntsepyok heavy flamethrower system smashing a stronghold of the AFU. Alex Parker Returns shares a video about Charlie Kirk's wife forgiving his killer (no military relevance). Alex Parker Returns shares a video with Donald Trump and Elon Musk, promoting a narrative of "peace, brotherhood, love and goodness." Colonelcassad reports 114 Ukrainian UAVs of airplane type were intercepted. RF Z-blogger Romanov's description of the RF offensive on the Pokrovsk direction. Народная милиция ДНР shares video of RF 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment shooting down UAF drones. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares video of RF special forces using motorcycles for rapid assault. Kotsnews shares video of a Russian drone operator not engaging Ukrainian humanitarian workers, possibly for propaganda purposes. Операция Z and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS share video of a "Geran" drone strike on an unspecified oil depot. TASS reports Peskov states Putin will make an important statement at an operational meeting with Security Council members. TASS reports Peskov redirected questions about the UAF Crimea attack to the MoD. TASS reports the Kremlin dismissed Estonian claims of airspace violation. TASS: Vladimir Putin is holding a meeting with members of the RF Security Council. TASS: Putin stated that the situation in strategic stability continues to degrade. TASS reports that lessons in the Crimean school damaged by a UAF UAV will resume within three days. TASS reports Roskomnadzor called messages about a new coronavirus hotline fake. TASS reports a State Duma committee member advocated for continued use of right-hand drive cars in Siberia and the Far East. TASS reports Margarita Simonyan announced she is undergoing cancer treatment. TASS reports the former State Duma deputy and ex-deputy chairman of the Crimean government, Balbek, was detained in Kabardino-Balkar Republic. TASS reports the LDPR proposed requiring migrants in Russia to have medical insurance. Новости Москвы advertises laser vision correction in Moscow. (FACT, TASS, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Рыбарь, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Fighterbomber, WarGonzo, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Два майора, Воин DV, Старше Эдды, MoD Russia, Басурин о главном, Kotsnews, БУТУСУ ПЛЮС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS confirms Saldo was in Moscow, refuting UAF claims, showcasing RF's ability to quickly counter disinformation and protect key figures. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of Putin discussing strategic planning and US missile defense systems, confirming that strategic stability remains a key narrative for RF. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Rybar shares video of Putin at a Security Council meeting discussing strategic stability and the New START treaty, reinforcing the narrative of RF's careful and strategic approach to global security. (FACT, Рыбарь, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Kadyrov_95 shares video of FPV drone attacks by the Sheikh Mansur rifle battalion in the Kharkiv direction, used to project military effectiveness and training. (FACT, Kadyrov_95, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS shares video of Commander Rakushev discussing an ambush for UAF near Muravka, DPR, used to highlight RF tactical successes. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Воин DV shares photos of solemn events for a Marine Brigade, used to boost morale and project strength domestically. (FACT, Воин DV, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Fighterbomber provides an "IMMEDIATE ASSESSMENT," indicating active RF information operations are ongoing and likely to be used to frame current events. Fighterbomber also shares a video of a Ka-52 helicopter escorting a civilian convoy, captioned "Traffic control," used to show RF military presence and control. (FACT, Fighterbomber, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Colonelcassad reports that Poland has once again acknowledged that no combat drones were found on its territory, only empty decoy drones, reinforcing the Russian narrative of non-aggressive intent and undermining NATO claims. (FACT, Colonelcassad, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Peskov denies accusations of Estonian airspace violation, calling them "empty and baseless," aiming to discredit NATO claims. (FACT, Север.Реалії, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Rybar posts two photo messages with the caption "Spies on demand," suggesting a new information campaign related to espionage or counter-espionage, potentially targeting Western intelligence. (FACT, Рыбарь, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports that Britain has lifted sanctions on Vladimir Evtushenkov's daughter, Tatiana Evtushenkova. This could be used to show a softening of Western stance or to highlight alleged hypocrisy. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports that Charles de Gaulle's grandson, Pierre de Gaulle, made an ironic comment about Kyiv imposing sanctions on him, used to discredit Ukrainian foreign policy and sow discord among Western allies. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Alex Parker Returns shares information about the Palestinian Embassy in London being upgraded and flags being raised, claiming Ukraine opened a Palestinian embassy in 2001. This is a subtle attempt to draw parallels or discredit Ukrainian foreign policy. (FACT, Alex Parker Returns, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ASTRA shares two graphic messages with the caption "To be the first to know the news, subscribe to Twitter (X) ASTRA," indicating active social media presence for news dissemination. (FACT, ASTRA, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports FIS will consider the participation of Russian athletes in the Olympics on September 23, used to highlight Russia's presence on the international stage and challenge Western efforts to isolate it. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports a train fire in Kuban was preliminarily caused by a short circuit, an attempt to downplay or deny potential sabotage by UAF. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Alex Parker Returns shares a video with inflammatory anti-Chechen rhetoric and misogynistic commentary, which could be part of a broader divisive internal information campaign. (FACT, Alex Parker Returns, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports a former Deputy Governor of Yugra, Shipilov, was placed under house arrest until November 14, 2025, in a bribery case, likely framed as anti-corruption success domestically. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports that Russia's decision to adhere to New START limits for a year after its expiration reflects a balanced and constructive approach by the country's leadership, according to Slutsky. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Alex Parker Returns shares video from Foros showing a sunset with faint lights, captioned "Attack on Foros. We must admit that air defense tried to repel the strike." This could be an attempt to downplay damage or show RF resilience, or shift focus away from the damage. (FACT, Alex Parker Returns, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Kotsnews shares video from Muravka, featuring RF assault troopers discussing tactical movements and engagements, contributing to narratives of RF combat effectiveness. (FACT, Kotsnews, Confidence: HIGH).
  • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a highly-pixelated and distorted video with explosions, captioned "Froze? We'll warm you up!", implying aggressive combat action by RF special forces, boosting morale. (FACT, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Alex Parker Returns shares disinformation claiming Zelenskyy has submitted a bill to use UAF abroad, specifically mentioning Moldova. (FACT, Alex Parker Returns, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ASTRA reports that an invasion participant previously convicted of murder was awarded in Oryol Oblast. This could be used by RF to showcase "rehabilitation" of criminals through military service, or by UAF to highlight the problematic nature of RF recruitment. (FACT, ASTRA, Confidence: HIGH).
• Demoralization of UAF: RF attempts to demoralize UAF forces by highlighting perceived personnel shortages and challenges. RF sources are actively circulating videos depicting UAF police forcibly apprehending individuals for conscription, labeling them "man-catchers." The cabinet's support for stripping acquired RF citizenship from draft evaders is a move to increase the pool of potential military personnel, which could also be spun by RF media as a measure to ensure "fairness" or "national duty" to its domestic audience. TASS reports five UAF servicemen surrendered in Sumy Oblast, which will be amplified. The defection of Ukrainian judoka Yelyzaveta Lytvynenko to the UAE will be used by RF. РБК-Україна reports RF soldiers near Pokrovsk are complaining about "meat assaults," which RF could use to claim UAF is sacrificing its soldiers recklessly. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF left dozens of bodies of fellow servicemen in Olhivske, which will be used to demoralize UAF (LOW - verification). Alex Parker Returns promotes a report on Arestovich's fraudulent fundraising as a way to undermine trust. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts a video showing leafleting by RF from the air, which likely contains propaganda targeting UAF soldiers. The Russian government supported a bill that would allow for stripping acquired Russian citizenship from those who evade military registration. Alex Parker Returns shares a video discussing alleged fraud related to Ukrainian fundraising. In Lviv, a college lecturer organized a scheme for draft evasion, which RF will exploit. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) shares multiple videos purporting to show Ukrainian Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCC) engaging in "genocide of the population of Ukraine." (FACT, Colonelcassad, TASS, РБК-Україна, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Alex Parker Returns, Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц", Север.Реалії, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Север.Реалії reports a mobilized soldier's mother detained at a picket in Moscow has been out of contact for a day, which RF will try to downplay, but is a potential counter-narrative for UAF to exploit to highlight internal Russian dissent. (FACT, Север.Реалії, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Операция Z reports on a priest being caught for accepting $10,000 to consecrate a draft dodger as a deacon to avoid mobilization. This will be widely exploited by RF to portray UAF draft issues and corruption. (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH).
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares photo messages about the "trajectory of lies" of Russian Z-bloggers, highlighting their shifting narratives about the war and the need for more mobilization. This is a UAF information operation. (FACT, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video humorously titled "Equipment of the 'second army of the world': the first trophy donkey!", which subtly mocks RF's military capabilities. (FACT, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Confidence: HIGH).
• Testing NATO Resolve and Sowing Discord: RF uses drone incursions near NATO borders to test response mechanisms and create narratives of NATO overreaction. RF is actively promoting narratives of "Mass protests in Warsaw against Poland being drawn into the Ukrainian conflict." Colonelcassad reports Macron does not see genocide in Gaza. Операция Z reports Netanyahu accusing Palestine-recognizing countries of supporting terrorism and threatening a response. TASS reports that the EU is rushing to adopt a new seven-year budget plan due to fears of Marine Le Pen's forces winning the 2027 French presidential elections. Janus Putkonen states that NATO is preparing for a new conflict with Russia and that the destruction of the Finnish economy is due to the economic war against Russia. Poland does not intend to shoot down objects violating its airspace on its own. TASS: The majority of EU countries in the UN demonstrate "herd mentality". (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia), Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports the Director of the Department of International Organizations of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kirill Logvinov, states there are no prerequisites for a substantive dialogue between Russia and the EU at the moment, reinforcing the narrative of EU intransigence. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Colonelcassad shares an image related to "why the Interior Minister of Britain became a Pakistani," used to sow discord and exploit social anxieties in Western countries. (FACT, Colonelcassad, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Estonia has called for an emergency NATO meeting and a UN Security Council meeting at its request. RF will likely frame this as Western overreaction and aggression. (FACT, Colonelcassad, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Colonelcassad reports that Poland has once again acknowledged that no combat drones were found on its territory, only empty decoy drones, reinforcing the Russian narrative of non-aggressive intent. (FACT, Colonelcassad, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Peskov denies accusations of Estonian airspace violation, calling them "empty and baseless," aiming to discredit NATO claims and sow doubt. (FACT, Север.Реалії, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports that Charles de Gaulle's grandson, Pierre de Gaulle, made an ironic comment about Kyiv imposing sanctions on him, used to highlight perceived divisions or criticism of Ukraine among Western figures. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • РБК-Україна reports a "bunker boom" in Germany after "Shaheds" in Poland, which RF will likely exploit to highlight Western fear and division. (FACT, РБК-Україна, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ASTRA reports that Poland will shoot down any objects violating its airspace, but only "if they are completely clear." This contradicts a previous report about Tusk's statement and provides RF with material to highlight disunity or conflicting policies within NATO. (FACT, ASTRA, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports that Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó states that NATO countries' calls for a more aggressive response to airspace violations lead to further escalation. He also hopes there will be no escalation between NATO and Russia in the future. This provides RF with a perceived voice of dissent within NATO. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
• Exploiting Geopolitical Tensions: RF continues to leverage international diplomatic developments (e.g., Palestine recognition by Portugal) to highlight perceived Western hypocrisy or divisions. The flags on the Eiffel Tower are being framed by RF as a significant geopolitical shift. RF state media's focus on individuals like Charlie Kirk aims to highlight perceived internal pro-Russia sentiment. RF media is actively using statements from Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and Charlie Kirk, framing them to suggest internal US political division. TASS reports on Kim Jong Un's statement about not giving up nuclear weapons, accompanied by a photo with Russian and North Korean flags, reinforcing a narrative of strong anti-Western alliances. The arrest of Araik Amirkhanian, accused of murdering former Rada deputy Ilya Kiva, is likely to be exploited. RF Deputy Viktor Vodolatsky's interview on TASS, claiming Donbas was a "donor" exploited by Ukrainian authorities, is a direct attempt to rewrite history. The "historical visit" of the Syrian President to the US will be seized upon by RF media as a sign of US hypocrisy. Kim Jong Un's statement that North Korea does not intend to dialogue with South Korea will be used to demonstrate geopolitical alignment. TASS reporting on Cond Nast applying for Vogue trademark in Russia could be used to project a return to normalcy. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on Trump's statement about a UFC fight in the White House. Alex Parker Returns highlights Putin's Rosh Hashanah greetings and Mishustin's influence. Операция Z promotes a quote from Trump to Elon Musk. Басурин о главном shows a video of a large crowd at the State Farm Stadium in Arizona. Colonelcassad reports Kim Jong Un stating he has created "secret weapons." ASTRA reports that North Korea has announced the creation of "secret weapons." The woman in the Butusov Plus video expresses strong anti-Western sentiments. The Russian government supported a bill that would allow for stripping acquired Russian citizenship from those who evade military registration. Alex Parker Returns shares a video with Donald Trump and Elon Musk, promoting a narrative of "peace, brotherhood, love and goodness." TASS reports Amirkhanian claimed in court he was framed in the Kiva murder. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts on the US developing a plan to resume enriched uranium production. TASS reports that a new package of EU sanctions against Russia has been agreed with the US. Alex Parker Returns shares a video of Palestinian refugees arriving in Dagestan. TASS reports Mishustin's statement on Russia strengthening microelectronics cooperation with Belarus and China. Операция Z also shares this statement. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares historical footage of a joint Soviet-German parade in 1939. TASS: Putin stated that the situation in strategic stability continues to degrade. (FACT, Alex Parker Returns, TASS, РБК-Україна, Рыбарь, Оперативний ЗСУ, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Басурин о главном, Colonelcassad, ASTRA, БУТУСУ ПЛЮС, Север.Реалії, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Оперативний ЗСУ shares video from Uman during Rosh Hashanah with anti-Putin statements, which RF will likely dismiss or counter with claims of foreign interference. (FACT, Оперативний ЗСУ, Confidence: HIGH).
  • ТАСС shares a photo and report that Trump will approve a TikTok deal with ByteDance this week, likely used to suggest US domestic concerns overshadow international support for Ukraine. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports discussions between Lavrov and US officials are being worked out for the UN General Assembly. This could be used by RF to signal a willingness for dialogue while maintaining its stance. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
• Internal Security: TASS reports that the FSB, МВД, and Rosgvardia seized 356 mines, 1,500 grenades, and over 250 kg of explosives from illegal arms dealers across 37 regions of Russia. TASS reports an arrest in Omsk for preparing contract murder of a cousin. The Russian Prosecutor General's Office demanded nationalization of St. Petersburg Humanitarian University of Trade Unions property. (FACT, TASS, Север.Реалії, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Север.Реалії reports a mobilized soldier's mother detained at a picket in Moscow has been out of contact for a day, indicating RF's proactive suppression of domestic dissent related to the conflict. (FACT, Север.Реалії, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports a former head of Ples city had 1 billion rubles seized, which will be framed as a success in anti-corruption efforts. (FACT, TASS, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports the former wife of Sverdlovsk Vice-Governor Irina Chemezova denies guilt under house arrest, used to show that legal processes are transparent. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • Два майора reports the detention of former State Duma deputy Ruslan Balbek, used to highlight internal political actions and counter any potential dissent from within occupied territories. (FACT, Два майора, Confidence: HIGH).
• Military Personnel Management: All conscripts drafted in the fall of 2025 will serve only on Russian territory, according to Russian military official Tsimlyansky. (FACT, Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны, Confidence: HIGH).
• Technological Advancement: Russian Deputy Prime Minister Mishustin states that Russia will not achieve full technological sovereignty if it blindly follows microelectronics leaders. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).
  • TASS reports that Russia's decision to adhere to New START limits for a year after its expiration reflects a balanced and constructive approach by the country's leadership, according to Slutsky. This is designed to show RF as a responsible nuclear power. (FACT, ТАСС, Confidence: HIGH).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

1. Sustained, Distributed Kinetic Strikes (Air/Missile/UAV): RF will continue with high-volume, multi-vector drone and guided aerial bomb (КАБ) attacks against Ukrainian military infrastructure, energy facilities, and civilian targets. These attacks will aim to degrade UAF defensive capabilities, exhaust air defense munitions, and generate psychological pressure on the civilian population. RF will likely continue to combine missile and UAV attacks, particularly against urban centers, to maximize the challenge for UAF air defense. (Confidence: HIGH)
2. Increased Ground Pressure on Pokrovsk and Lyman Axes: RF will likely continue to prioritize offensive operations on the Pokrovsk and Lyman axes, seeking to exploit recent tactical gains (Novoekonomichne, Romanivka, Berëzovoye, Kalynivske) and disrupt UAF defensive lines. Expect persistent "meat assaults" (high-attrition infantry waves) supported by heavy artillery, thermobaric weapons (TOS-1A), and enhanced drone reconnaissance/strike capabilities (thermal drones, FPVs). The intent will be to achieve incremental territorial gains and exhaust UAF personnel and resources. The reported RF claims of UAF diverting reserves to the Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia border highlight a potential RF strategy to exploit perceived UAF vulnerabilities from redeployments. (Confidence: HIGH)
3. Continued Hybrid Probing of NATO Borders and IO Amplification: RF will continue to conduct low-level, deniable provocations against NATO borders (e.g., drone incursions, airspace violations) to test alliance response mechanisms and identify vulnerabilities. These actions will be coupled with intensive information operations aimed at sowing discord within NATO, discrediting Western support for Ukraine, and amplifying narratives of internal Western divisions or hypocrisy. The call for emergency NATO and UN Security Council meetings by Estonia will likely be framed by RF as an overreaction, with RF officials (Peskov, Colonelcassad, Szijjártó) already denying responsibility for airspace violations or advocating against aggressive responses. (Confidence: HIGH)
4. Information Operations (IO) Focusing on UAF Internal Weaknesses and RF Strength: RF information channels will intensify narratives highlighting perceived UAF personnel shortages, forced conscription ("man-catchers"), and internal corruption within Ukraine (e.g., priest bribed for draft evasion) to undermine public morale and international support. Simultaneously, RF state media will continue to project an image of military effectiveness, technological advancement, and strong, stable leadership (e.g., Putin's statements on strategic stability, military exercises, new weapons, and conscription policy for conscripts remaining within RF territory). RF will also continue to use instances like the unexploded КАБ in Zaporizhzhia to implicitly shift blame or downplay the destructive intent. (Confidence: HIGH)
5. Targeted Disruptions of UAF Logistics: RF will continue to attempt to disrupt key UAF logistical routes and nodes, including railway lines, fuel depots, and supply convoys, using kamikaze UAVs and guided aerial bombs. The goal is to constrain UAF's ability to reinforce and resupply frontline units, particularly in areas under heavy RF pressure, though RF will have to contend with UAF drone mining operations on their own GLOCs. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

1. Major Escalation in Strategic Strike Capabilities: Putin's announcement of deploying intermediate-range missiles and abandoning the moratorium, coupled with instructions to monitor US missile defense, could precede a significant and overt escalation in RF's conventional or non-conventional long-range strike capabilities. This could involve the deployment of new missile systems or a more aggressive posture regarding nuclear doctrines, aimed at directly deterring Western intervention and further complicating Ukraine's security calculus. This is particularly dangerous as Putin has publicly stated "RF is ready to respond to any strategic threats, not in words, but with military-technical measures." (Confidence: MEDIUM)
2. Coordinated Breakthrough on a Critical Axis: RF could launch a highly concentrated, large-scale offensive on a single, critical axis (e.g., Pokrovsk or Chasiv Yar), utilizing reserves, air superiority (including concentrated КАБ strikes), and specialized engineering units (e.g., laser mine clearing systems) to achieve a decisive operational breakthrough. This could aim to encircle or cut off a significant UAF force grouping or capture a strategic urban center, potentially altering the front-line dynamics significantly. The reported UAF need to divert reserves to counter RF advances on the Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia border could create vulnerabilities for such an RF breakthrough elsewhere. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
3. Widespread and Sustained Cyberattack Campaign against Critical Ukrainian Infrastructure: Building on existing hybrid warfare capabilities, RF could launch a sustained, multi-layered cyberattack campaign targeting Ukraine's critical infrastructure (power grid, telecommunications, financial systems, government networks) in conjunction with kinetic strikes. The objective would be to induce widespread chaos, cripple governance, and severely degrade the logistical and C2 capabilities of the UAF and the state. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
4. Expanded Deep Strike Operations within NATO Territory (Deniable): Following continued probing of NATO borders with drones, RF could conduct a more impactful, deniable deep strike against critical infrastructure within a frontline NATO member state (e.g., Poland or the Baltics). This could involve the use of advanced cyber capabilities, sabotage by proxies, or even disguised drone attacks, designed to inflict significant damage, test Article 5, and sow fear without providing clear attribution. The immediate response by Estonia to call for NATO and UN Security Council meetings indicates a heightened sensitivity to such actions, but also a potential RF motivation to further expose perceived NATO divisions or hesitancy. The reported "bunker boom" in Germany indicates the population is already sensitive to this threat. (Confidence: LOW)

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Immediate (Next 24-48 hours): Expect continued high-tempo RF drone and КАБ activity across central and eastern Ukraine, especially targeting Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy. Ground operations will remain intense on the Pokrovsk and Lyman axes. UAF must decide on resource allocation for air defense and ground reinforcements. The outcome of Estonia's requested NATO and UN Security Council meetings will shape immediate diplomatic and military responses, and RF's denials and Hungary's statements indicate they are prepared to counter this narrative. The joint Poland-Sweden naval exercises are a critical development to watch for any RF response.
• Short-Term (Next 72 hours - 1 week): Assessment of RF's ability to sustain high-volume drone attacks and ground offensive tempo will be crucial. If RF is able to maintain this, UAF will face increasing strain on air defense resources and personnel. Putin's statements on strategic stability and intermediate-range missiles require close monitoring for any immediate follow-up actions or deployments that would necessitate an urgent UAF and NATO response. The impact of Estonia's diplomatic efforts will clarify the international response to RF's hybrid actions. Russia's efforts to acquire US aircraft parts via Belarus (Politico report) suggest a short-term focus on maintaining aviation capabilities despite sanctions.
• Medium-Term (1-2 weeks): The impact of recent UAF deep strikes on RF air and air defense assets in Crimea and internal RF energy infrastructure will become clearer. UAF's ability to address internal logistical challenges (e.g., clean water in frontline areas) and counter RF's intensified ground pressure will be key decision points regarding defensive strategy and counter-offensive preparations. The implementation of Russia's autumn conscription will indicate their personnel sustainment strategy. The outcome of the FIS meeting regarding Russian athletes (23 SEP) will be an IO event.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• CRITICAL (PERSISTING - PRIORITY 1): Obtain comprehensive Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the 20 SEP massive RF air strike and subsequent high-volume drone attacks. This remains the highest intelligence priority to determine RF's strategic targeting success versus terror objectives and to accurately assess the impact on UAF air defense capabilities.
• CRITICAL (NEW - PRIORITY 2): Verify the full extent of RF's claimed territorial gains at Novoekonomichne, Romanivka, Kalynivske, Malynivka, Poddubnoye, Dachnoye, Novoukrainka, and Novoselovka, and simultaneously confirm the UAF claim of liberating 164.5 sq. km on the Dobropillya direction. Task ISR to identify likely RF follow-on objectives and force compositions on these axes, especially on the Pokrovsk and Dnipropetropavsk directions, and identify UAF force posture for potential exploitation of the Dobropillya advance. Confirm the impact of UAF diverting reserves to the Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia border as claimed by RF. Reconcile conflicting reports regarding the capture of Kalynivske.
• HIGH (NEW - PRIORITY 3): Assess the immediate and observable implications of Putin's announcement regarding intermediate-range missiles. Task strategic ISR (SIGINT, IMINT) to monitor for any changes in RF missile force posture, deployments, or alert levels that would indicate a shift from declaratory policy to actual capabilities.
• HIGH (PERSISTING): Assess the primary reason for General Lapin's dismissal. Determine if it signals a change in strategy, is a result of operational failure (e.g., in Kharkiv), or is due to internal political friction. Assess the likely impact on C2 of the "Center" and Leningrad Military District forces.
• HIGH (PERSISTING): Assess the true tactical situation in the Serebryansky forestry and Shandryholove. Verify the extent of RF control and the stability of UAF defensive lines.
• MEDIUM (NEW): Obtain BDA for the UAF GUR strike on the Mi-8 helicopters and Nebo-U radar in Crimea and the Be-12 amphibious aircraft to confirm the extent of damage and impact on RF capabilities.
• MEDIUM (NEW): Verify reports of RF deploying "mother drones" and "Hortenzia" grenade launcher drones to understand their operational capabilities and tactical impact. Specifically, confirm the operational status of the "Molniya" UAV as an FPV "mother drone."
• MEDIUM (NEW): Assess the impact of the detention of FSB agents supplying Ukrainian SIM cards to Russian kamikaze drones on RF drone logistics and operations.
• MEDIUM (NEW): Monitor and verify RF efforts to obtain US aircraft parts via Belarus (Belavia) and assess the effectiveness of US efforts to block these supplies. This is critical for assessing RF long-term aviation sustainment.
• LOW (NEW): Monitor RF internal security operations (e.g., illegal arms seizures, arrests related to sabotage, detention of mobilized soldiers' mothers, awards for convicted murderers) for any indicators of wider internal resistance or UAF-supported subversive activities within RF territory, and to gauge the human resource situation in RF.
• LOW (NEW): Verify the RF claims of Saldo's whereabouts during the Crimea strike. This is important for understanding RF's information control and UAF intelligence accuracy.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Enhance Air Defense and EW Capabilities in High-Threat Areas:
   • ACTION: Immediately deploy additional mobile air defense systems (e.g., NASAMS, IRIS-T, Avenger, Gepard) and robust Electronic Warfare (EW) assets to key urban centers (Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy) and critical infrastructure (rail hubs, energy facilities) to counter the sustained, multi-vector RF drone and missile threats, particularly following the renewed high-volume attacks. Prioritize layered defenses to ensure redundancy.
   • JUSTIFICATION: The significant volume of RF drone attacks (141 UAVs launched overnight, 132 intercepted/suppressed) and the confirmed use of guided aerial bombs (КАБ) against urban targets highlight the persistent and evolving threat. Mobile systems are critical for dynamic defense against dispersed attacks, while EW can disrupt drone navigation and communications.
2. Prioritize ISR and Offensive Exploitation on Dobropillya-Pokrovsk Axis:
   • ACTION: Immediately re-task all available ISR assets (UAVs, SIGINT, IMINT) to focus on the newly liberated areas around Dobropillya, identifying opportunities for further exploitation and potential RF vulnerabilities. Simultaneously, maintain intense ISR on the Pokrovsk and Lyman axes to identify RF force composition, logistical routes, artillery positions, and newly deployed specialized engineering systems (e.g., "Posokh" mine clearers). Reinforce defensive lines with additional personnel, anti-tank capabilities, and minefields in anticipation of continued RF ground offensives while capitalizing on the Dobropillya advance. Closely monitor any RF redeployments of UAF reserves in the Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia border region to identify and exploit newly exposed front sections.
   • JUSTIFICATION: The significant UAF territorial gain on the Dobropillya direction presents a critical opportunity to regain initiative. RF's confirmed incremental gains and continued high-intensity ground assaults on the Pokrovsk-Lyman axes demand proactive defensive measures and real-time intelligence to prevent significant breakthroughs and mitigate attrition, while UAF exploits its own successes. RF claims of UAF diverting reserves indicate an operational opportunity for RF that UAF must anticipate.
3. Amplify UAF Deep Strike Successes and Counter RF Narrative on NATO/UN:
   • ACTION: Direct PSYOP and STRATCOM to immediately publicize the successful deep strikes on RF military assets in Crimea (Be-12 aircraft, Mi-8 helicopter, Nebo-U radar) and the S-400 system in Kaluga Oblast. Additionally, amplify the news of General Lapin's dismissal, framing it as evidence of command chaos, operational failure, and internal purges within the RF military leadership. Counter RF claims regarding Saldo's whereabouts if UAF intelligence suggests otherwise. Prepare counter-narratives to RF attempts to frame Estonia's calls for NATO/UN meetings as "overreactions" or "provocations," instead emphasizing RF's continued hybrid aggressions and denying responsibility for its own airspace violations. Explicitly highlight RF disinformation regarding Zelenskyy's bill on UAF deployment abroad.
   • JUSTIFICATION: These actions boost UAF and civilian morale, demonstrate continued capability to hold high-value RF targets at risk, and sow distrust and demoralization within RF forces and the Russian populace. Proactive narrative control concerning NATO/UN meetings is crucial to maintain international support and diplomatic leverage, especially given RF's immediate denials.
4. Strengthen Humanitarian and Logistical Support for Frontline Civilians and Troops:
   • ACTION: Allocate immediate resources for humanitarian aid, medical supplies, and reconstruction efforts in areas affected by RF strikes, particularly Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Kyiv Oblasts. Prioritize efforts to address critical logistical challenges for UAF units, such as providing access to clean water in frontline areas like Pokrovsk, and mitigating the effects of RF drone-deployed mines on logistics. Support existing UAF initiatives for POW/MIA families and for developing underground educational facilities.
   • JUSTIFICATION: Mitigating civilian suffering and addressing basic troop needs are crucial for maintaining morale, public trust, and combat effectiveness, directly impacting UAF readiness and resilience.
5. Conduct Comprehensive Review of Airspace Security and NATO Coordination:
   • ACTION: Engage with Polish and NATO counterparts at military and diplomatic levels regarding the recent RF drone incursions and Poland's stance on shooting down objects. Actively support Estonia's call for NATO and UN Security Council meetings by sharing all available intelligence on RF hybrid activities, including the nature of RF decoy drones and the strategic intent behind their deployment near NATO borders. Review and refine protocols for airspace monitoring, threat response, and intelligence sharing along NATO's eastern flank. Acknowledge and support Poland-Sweden joint military exercises as a deterrent to RF aggression in the Baltic Sea. Address Hungary's concerns on escalation, while maintaining firm collective defense posture.
   • JUSTIFICATION: Continued RF probing of NATO borders necessitates a unified, robust, and unambiguous response to deter escalation and demonstrate alliance cohesion, preventing RF from exploiting perceived vulnerabilities. Active engagement with allies reinforces collective security, especially in light of RF's immediate denials. The joint exercises signal increased readiness and interoperability.
6. Develop Counter-Measures to RF Adaptive Drone Warfare:
   • ACTION: Prioritize R&D and procurement of advanced counter-UAS technologies, including electronic warfare systems capable of disrupting RF "mother drones," "Hortenzia" drones, and sophisticated FPV/reconnaissance UAVs. Conduct rapid analysis of captured RF drones, including reprogrammed "Baba Yaga" units and the "Molniya" repurposed as an FPV mother drone, to develop effective countermeasures and exploit vulnerabilities. Pay particular attention to developing effective tactics against hexacopter drones used by RF, as demonstrated by the recent RF interception.
   • JUSTIFICATION: RF's continuous adaptation in drone warfare, including new systems (e.g., Molniya as a mother drone) and adaptive tactics, requires a dynamic and technologically advanced UAF response to maintain battlefield advantage and protect personnel/equipment.

//END REPORT//