Archived operational intelligence briefing
TIME: 191233Z SEP 25
RF forces maintain multi-axis pressure across the Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia axes. Heavy reciprocal battles continue in Sumy Oblast. RF claims unverified advances in Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, and occupation of the medical college area in Kupiansk, with military control and fortifications on the Velikoburlukskoye direction. RF claims a 5km advance on the Gulyaipole direction, entering Novoivanivka, and new positions south of Novoivanivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF claims full control of Serebryansky forestry, representing a significant territorial gain on the Lyman direction, if verified. RF claims UAF "complains" about RF advances in Kupiansk, with RF sources amplifying reports of "chaos and disorganization" and a "failed defense." RF footage displays dynamic combat engagements in a forest environment, explosions, and smoke. Kotsnews posts video claiming "liberation of Novonikolaevka" with Russian assault troops detailing mine clearing. Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming soldiers of the 270th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Akhmat-Caucasus" destroyed enemy positions in Malaya Tokmachka area. ТАСС posts video claiming Tornado-S MLRS crews destroyed three temporary deployment points of a UAF brigade in Konstantinovka. Colonelcassad reports a cluster Iskander strike on a UAF company tactical group near Druzhkivka. Воин DV posts video detailing renewed artillery strikes and attacks on enemy personnel in the Polozhskoye direction by the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo message showing a tactical map of a contested area, suggesting ongoing ground combat and RF claims of UAF setbacks in Kupiansk. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports over 80 combat engagements in the last 24 hours. The Kramatorsk direction saw 15 RF assaults near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Mykolayivka, Stupochky, Bila Hora, and Andriivka, with UAF repelling 12. The Pokrovsk direction remains the hottest, with 28 assaults near Volodymyrivka, Zapovidne, Novoekonomichne, Shevchenko, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne, Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Vilne, Chervonyi Lyman, Myrnohrad, Rodynske, Promin, Zvirove, Molodetske, Novopidhorodne, Novopavlivka, and Filiya, with 20 repelled. On the Novopavlivka direction, 26 assaults were near Yalta, Shevchenko, Komyshuvakha, Vorone, Ternove, Novoivanivka, Filiya, Ivanivka, Iskra, Sichneve, Olhivske, and Poltavka, with 21 repelled. On the Orikhiv direction, 7 assaults occurred near Kamyanske and towards Novodanylivka, with 6 repelled. On the Kherson direction, UAF repelled 4 Russian army assaults. On the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions, UAF repelled 7 Russian army assaults. This indicates sustained and heavy RF pressure across all key axes, particularly Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka. UAF has confirmed the liberation of Pankivka, Donetsk Oblast, and Zarichne. UAF reports eliminating a Russian breakthrough near Pokrovsk with ongoing cleanup operations. Drone footage from the 'Battle for Pokrovsk,' displays successful strikes against RF targets. UAF "Pion" artillery is operating on the Donetsk direction. FPV drone footage of night combat operations by the 6th Battalion of the Azov Brigade shows thermal imagery of strikes. UAF forces have flooded a gas pipe in Kupiansk, attempting to thwart RF infiltration, and deny RF claims of fighting in the city center. UAF 15th Separate Artillery Reconnaissance Brigade "Black Forest" successfully destroyed an RF Buk-M2 SAM system (video confirmed). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts video claiming six accurate strikes by the "STRIKS" unit on the Southern Slobozhansky direction. Олександр Вілкул posts photo messages of the 77th Airmobile Brigade on the front. Оперативний ЗСУ posts drone footage showing Ukrainian forces identifying and striking a Russian artillery position and communication antenna in Kharkiv Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС highlights how the 1st Assault Regiment (1-й ОШП) "cut the pincers" of Russians near Dobropillya. President Zelenskyy met with soldiers of the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade participating in the defense of Myrnohrad and the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation, reporting 160 sq km liberated and 7 settlements freed. UAF's "Shadow" unit posts video of successful drone strikes on RF shelters ("укриттям"), indicating continued precision targeting of enemy fortifications. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts video showing the UAF 1st Assault Battalion holding its front line in Zaporizhzhia, destroying enemy forces "far from the line of contact" using FPV drones, indicating robust long-range defensive capabilities. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts video of "STRIKS" unit FPV drone operators from the 4th Border Guard Detachment destroying two enemy positions, a shelter, a BMP, and two vehicles (one laden with ammunition) on the Southern Slobozhansky direction. This highlights continued UAF tactical successes using FPV drones. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts photos of President Zelenskyy meeting with the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade at their command post, acknowledging their participation in the defense of Mirnohrad and the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video depicting drone footage of Ukrainian military positions, specifically trenches, being targeted and struck by munitions, with a logo of what appears to be a Ukrainian military insignia and a unit emblem with drones and an eagle, suggesting successful strikes against enemy positions. The caption reads "Окупантам не сховатися" (Occupiers cannot hide). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a video compilation showing intense combat engagements from a drone's perspective on the Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Kupiansk directions, documenting numerous RF artillery strikes and personnel losses. Two Ukrainian reconnaissance companies, including the "VARTOVI" unmanned systems battalion of Mykolaiv marines, are actively engaging Russian military assets, targeting vehicle convoys, artillery, and infantry positions. UAF drone operators from the 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" successfully destroyed eight Russian assault troops on the Pokrovsk direction. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides an operational update for 22:00, 18.09.2025, confirming UAF repelled the majority of RF assaults across multiple axes, indicating successful defensive operations despite heavy pressure. ТАСС reports RF Deputy Commander of a VDV assault battalion claims UAF forces are abandoning NATO weapons during retreat in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (UNVERIFIED RF IO) Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posted a video claiming to show aerial combat on the Zaporizhzhia front, displaying FPV drone footage, telemetry data, and what appears to be a Ukrainian drone targeting Russian equipment. This indicates continued intense drone warfare.
NEW INTELLIGENCE:
Current conditions are generally clear and favorable for air operations across most of Ukraine. A cold front is moving into the Carpathians with temperatures dropping to -2°C, and snow is possible soon. The strongest geomagnetic storm in 3 months (G3) continues to impact satellite communications and GPS for both sides.
RF launched three S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles, one Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile, and 75 drones (over 40 of them Shaheds) overnight against Ukraine. 48 RF UAVs were shot down/suppressed. Persistent RF UAV threats affect Sumy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Odesa, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Poltava Oblasts. Zaporizhzhia experienced at least TEN strikes, killing one person and injuring 20, causing power outages. Sumy Oblast suffered two drone impacts, causing power outages and a warehouse fire. RF dropped three FAB-250 glide bombs on Kramatorsk, injuring 19. UAF Air Force warns of guided aerial bomb launches on Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Nizhyn suffered the "most massive strike from the beginning of the war" with dozens of drones, damaging critical infrastructure. Explosions confirmed in Sumy. Yampil is reported to be burning. Large fire at Kyiv logistics center liquidated after repeated morning attacks. UAF Air Force warns of several UAV groups past Derhachi, heading towards Kharkiv. RF sources report "powerful explosions in Balakliia (Kharkiv Oblast)" with videos of large smoke plumes. New RF drone group detections for Chernihiv Oblast towards Baturyn and renewed explosions in Kropyvnytskyi. Critical infrastructure hit by RF UAVs in Cherkasy Oblast. Large fire engulfing a multi-story building in Kyiv reported. КАБы on Kherson, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts. Five strong explosions in Petrovsky district of Donetsk. RF drone strike on a gas station in Poltava district, causing a fire and one casualty. UAF Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs (КАБ) on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. РБК-Україна reports Russians struck a residential area of Konstantinovka with a guided aerial bomb (КАБ), killing 5 people. Air Force of Ukraine reports tactical aviation activity in the northeast direction, specifically launching guided aerial bombs (КАБ) towards Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБы ➡️ на Донеччину! (Guided aerial bombs towards Donetsk Oblast!). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district). Николаевский Ванёк reports three UAVs approaching Pavlohrad, and subsequent defensive actions and successful downing of UAVs in Pavlohrad. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a person was injured in Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast, due to a drone attack and falling debris. Three women were injured in Vozdvyzhivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, due to an enemy attack, further increasing civilian casualties. The Kyiv City Military Administration (КМВА) has reported the all-clear for Kyiv, while the subway restores normal operations.
NEW INTELLIGENCE:
RF Forces:
Ground: Multi-axis offensives continue with claims of advances in Krasnoarmeysk-Dmitrov, "grinding down" elite UAF units on Dobropillya direction, and entering Konstantinovka city limits. RF claims offensive development at the junction of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with claims of "liberating" Olhivske and Sosnovka. "Kurier" and "Fagot" UGVs deployed. Heavy reciprocal battles in Sumy Oblast. FAB strikes continue in Kalinovsky, targeting UAF logistics. Assault on Yampil has started, utilizing civilian clothing for disguise and human shields. North Korean 107-mm Type1963 MLRS observed. RF expanding bridgehead in Volchansk. RF Naval Infantry advancing in Sumy Oblast. RF Army actively advancing in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF detailing movements and territorial control changes in Zaporizhzhia (Stepnohirsk, Orikhiv, Tokmak). RF has taken fire control of approximately 5 km of H-26 highway near Stepova Novoselivka, leading to Kupiansk. RF continues to advance on Konstantinovka direction, with "pincers closing." Putin observed "Zapad-2025" exercises. RF claims full control of Serebryansky forestry. VDV performing parachute and armored vehicle air-dropping operations during "Zapad-2025." Tactical map claiming RF is developing an offensive at the junction of DPR, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. RF claims "Anwar" special forces destroyed a Swedish "S-tank" while supporting an offensive towards Sumy (highly unusual, likely IO). Multiple videos claiming the liberation of Novopetrovskoye. RF claims UAF attacks on DPR border led to increased RF strikes on enemy rear. RF claims destruction of a Paladin SAU, and successful destruction of UAF attempts to cross Dnieper. Video of a captured Russian soldier, Mikhail Stepanov, describing harsh combat conditions, coercive tactics, and low morale. Forced evacuation from 18 settlements in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. "Akhmat" SpN Regiment FPV drone reconnaissance on Sumy direction. Duma committee approved veteran status for volunteers in assault units. RF claims "Sparta" unit destroyed a UAF UAV control post. RF and UAF-affiliated sources amplify Deep State's report that RF forces are entering and consolidating in residential areas of Kupiansk. The captured RF soldier claims his unit used a gas pipe to infiltrate Kupiansk. RF military expert claims UAF created powerful underground fortifications in residential Konstantinovka. RF claims an offensive behind Chasiv Yar, with airborne forces destroying enemy defenses. Special incendiary detachment of 16th Guards NBC Protection Brigade, "Vostok" Group, using thermobaric munitions on Vremevskoye direction. MoD Russia posts video features Russian soldiers discussing UAV attacks, small group infiltrations by AFU, and the establishment of a buffer zone. MoD Russia claim of destroying a 3-person Ukrainian DRG attempting to infiltrate Kursk Oblast near Tetkino. Colonelcassad posts drone footage claiming to show a destroyed UAF M1A1 Abrams tank on the Sumy front (unverified). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claims "Anwar" special forces hit a rare Swedish Strv 103 tank in the Sumy border region (unverified). MoD Russia posts video showcasing RF MLRS firing rounds. Colonelcassad claims RF forces successfully crossed the Volchya River and are advancing in eastern Ivanovka. MoD Russia posts video claiming a T-80BVM tank crew destroyed an enemy stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a message: "Family, friends, brothers and sisters, we urgently need drones🚀." Старше Эдды claims RF forces have taken control of the outskirts of Kupiansk. Операция Z amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" video claiming RF VDV are destroying UAF positions and advancing on the Sumy front. Colonelcassad posts map claiming assault groups occupied new positions south of Novoivanivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of captured Russian soldiers in Kupiansk detailing orders to kill Ukrainian men and infiltration via a gas pipe. ТАСС reports Russian sergeant Dinir Shavaleev broke into an enemy dugout alone and eliminated two Ukrainian soldiers. Два майора posts video regarding drone repair and creation for marine infantry on Sumy direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video of RF soldiers evacuating a heavy, injured soldier. MoD Russia posts video of T-72B3M tanks neutralizing UAF positions in the LPR. Colonelcassad posts new map updates detailing RF ground advances over the past 24 hours, particularly around Kupiansk. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Kotsnews post drone footage of artillery strikes by "Vostok" Group on UAF fortified positions near Gavrilovka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк claims 18 officers of the operational staff of the RF 35th Combined Arms Army were killed in a sabotage operation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (unverified by UAF, but casualty list adds credibility). «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» posts thermal and daylight drone footage from the Sumy direction showing interception of an enemy drone and strike on an "enemy antenna." MoD Russia posts a photo message summarizing the progress of the special military operation as of 18 September 2025. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a video showing a Russian T-72 variant tank maneuvering and firing. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming RF forces eliminated a UAF platoon in Konstantinovka. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video of Solovyov proposing replacing Russian border guards with North Koreans. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of Ukrainian border guards striking three enemy vehicles and manpower in the Southern direction. Janus Putkonen posts an image with the caption "Army Corps Zapad-2025 ended and training troops are moving to real operations against Kyiv forces." Alex Parker Returns posts video about high financial incentives for contract service in Moscow (6M rubles annually, 3.1M lump sum, 260k salary, 10M debt forgiveness). MoD Russia posts video showing signal units of the Tsentr Group of Forces deploying a secured radio network between forward units and a command post in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Воин DV posts video detailing the situation on the Southern Donetsk direction, specifically mentioning fighting in Novoivanovka, and shows drone footage of artillery strikes. Рыбарь posts a tactical map overlay for "fights in the agglomeration." Операция Z amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" claiming RF Army is breaking through to Zaporizhzhia via Kamyanske and Plavni, citing Ukrainian speaker Voloshyn. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video quoting Putin on over 700,000 Russian military personnel on the line of contact. Воин DV posts photos of Russian tank brigade soldiers from Buryatia being awarded. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video with captured RF soldiers discussing murder charges. Colonelcassad reports a cluster Iskander strike on a UAF company tactical group near Druzhkivka. "Два майора" posts a message from Putin to State Duma leaders, emphasizing the government's reliance on their support, indicating an ongoing effort to maintain political cohesion for the war. "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" posts a photo message claiming a person accused of raping a minor stepdaughter was released to fight in the war, indicating continued controversial recruitment practices. "Николаевский Ванёк" posts an exclusive video of a captured Cuban national from the 81st Airmobile Brigade, providing HUMINT on RF recruitment of foreign nationals and their combat experience. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming strikes on UAF positions on the Donetsk direction. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition amplifies Putin's statement that the "combined grouping of Russian forces in the SMO zone is over 700,000 servicemen," claiming "our fighters have no equals in the world." Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming "Akhmat" special forces successfully used a KVN drone to strike a UAF pickup truck with infantry in a wooded area on the Kharkiv direction, claiming "3 dead fighters." Игорь Артамонов posts a photo message highlighting a father of three, a Cossack and patriot, serving as a volunteer on the front since 2022, indicating continued RF volunteer recruitment and morale boosting. Воин DV posts video of drone operators from the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade conducting effective strikes against enemy manpower in the Polozhskoye direction, demonstrating continued offensive operations. Два майора posts a video compilation, including what appears to be a Russian tank being destroyed by UAF forces, suggesting ongoing tactical losses for RF. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo of a tactical map claiming a critical situation in Kupiansk, implying potential RF advances or UAF tactical setbacks in the area. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" states that their unit is experiencing a "difficult period," indicating possible operational strain. Russian forces are distributing leaflets in Velyka Pysarivka, Sumy Oblast, calling for "evacuation." "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a video showing Russian military personnel loading crates with Cyrillic text onto a vehicle, indicating routine logistical operations. Colonelcassad highlights "Aid's" comments on shotguns against FPV drones, suggesting tactical adaptations. Военкор Котенок posts a video showing a mix of medical emergency response and military training/operations footage, with a caption indicating a deficit of medics at the front. Операция Z amplifies a video showing Russian President Vladimir Putin discussing the establishment of a federal holiday for veterans of special military operations. Colonelcassad posts video claiming successful FPV drone and artillery strikes by RF's 3rd Army Corps on a UAF 155mm M109A5 self-propelled howitzer near Konstantinovka, supporting claims of continued high-intensity combat and RF precision capabilities. Воин DV posts a video showing military vehicles and apparent combat in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by RF "CENTER" and "VOSTOK" groups, suggesting ongoing RF ground operations and pressure in the area. Два майора posts a photo message showing a body exchange, confirming the ongoing process of exchanging fallen soldiers between both sides. Alex Parker Returns posts a grim video showing decomposing bodies in military fatigues and a scorched forest, indicating recent heavy combat and significant casualties, likely RF losses given the channel's general bias. Colonelcassad posts video claiming an UAF DRG of 4 militants armed with a "Baba-Yaga" heavy hexacopter was destroyed on the right bank of the Dnieper in Kherson Oblast while attempting to cross to the left bank. Alex Parker Returns shares information from Russian sources alleging that Rostec structures are servicing UAF helicopters (Mi-8MT/MTB) via AAL Group Ltd., registered in the UAE. Colonelcassad posts video on Wagner Group training Belarusian forces for 2 years, highlighting their combat experience in Syria and Africa. Alex Parker Returns posts video depicting a green pickup truck with supplies driving through a heavily damaged village, possibly from a forward logistics operation. New intelligence shows that the Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration, Dmitry Kozak, has been dismissed. Colonelcassad has posted videos of an exhibition "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" in Moscow's Victory Museum, showcasing Russian military heroism and destroyed enemy equipment. This includes an interactive map of military operations. OSINT-analyst Brady Africk reports RF has recently built a new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast, 35 km from the Ukrainian border. "Военкоры Русской Весны" (amplified by Операция Z) claims a former UAF officer who defected in 2014 is commanding the Russian offensive on Kupiansk. ТАСС reports RF Deputy Commander of a VDV assault battalion claims UAF forces are abandoning NATO weapons during retreat in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ТАСС reports RF forces advanced near Kupyansk, specifically at Kucherovka and Petropavlovka, clearing a tree line and destroying a UAF fortified area. ТАСС posts a video claiming a Croatian citizen, who recently obtained Russian citizenship, surrendered to Russian FPV drone operators in Zaporizhzhia Oblast while serving with UAF. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message with the caption " Airborne brotherhood, good morning!", a morale-boosting message likely depicting RF VDV forces. Astra reports 17 high-ranking military officers died in a dugout fire in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (FACT, RF-aligned REPORT).
Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS: WarGonzo posts video showing a Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS firing in a wooded area, with interviews of crew members (callsigns 'MANGUST', 'DZHANGO'). This confirms active artillery support and operational context for MLRS. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Ground Operations (Krasnoarmeysk-Muravka): Video showcases Russian military operations, focusing on advances through wooded and open terrain, and engaging enemy positions, with specific unit patches suggesting identifiable Russian military units. The narrative suggests a deliberate, methodical approach to offensive operations, emphasizing coordinated fire and movement. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Ground Casualties: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the liquidation of two brothers (Sergei and Yegor Kotov) from Vladimir, Russia, who volunteered for service in Ukraine and were killed on the same day. This indicates continued RF personnel losses. (FACT, UAF-ALIGNED REPORT)
RF IO (Kupiansk): Два майора posts a photo message titled "Fortress Kupyansk" turns into "Strategically unimportant city," indicating a narrative shift by RF to downplay the significance of Kupiansk. (FACT, RF IO)
RF Fund Raising (Airborne Forces): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports raising 6,700 rubles for "a powerful salvo," indicating continued, albeit possibly slow, fundraising efforts for RF airborne units. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Public Opinion (SMO Participants): General SVR reports a negative opinion from the Politburo regarding quotas for SMO participants in government structures, suggesting an internal power dynamic where combat veterans are not intended for political leadership roles. (FACT, RF-aligned report)
RF Volunteer Aid: Два майора posts a video thanking "Armor 31" and "Two Majors" for providing armor to a military truck, highlighting volunteer support networks within RF. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Muravka (DNR): ТАСС reports heavy UAF losses during the liberation of Muravka by RF forces, confirming RF claims of territorial gains and UAF casualties in the area. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Military Aircraft Operations: Fighterbomber posts a video showing two military aircraft, one potentially refueling, with discussion of engine behavior. This indicates active RF air operations. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Bryansk Oblast Governor Re-inauguration: AV БогомаZ posts a video of Alexander Bogomaz's inauguration ceremony as Governor of Bryansk Oblast, emphasizing an oath to the Russian Constitution and regional prosperity. This signals political continuity and stability in a border region. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Ministry of Defense - Scientific Approach: Два майора posts a message about the RF Minister of Defense's "important decision regarding a scientific and systemic approach," suggesting a new strategic emphasis on military-scientific research and development, possibly related to EW or drone capabilities. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Air/Naval: High concentration of strategic bombers. "West-2025" and "Rubezh 2025" exercises ongoing, involving significant naval deployments and strategic aviation. OAK handed over another batch of new Su-34 fighter-bombers. RF launched three S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles and 75 drones (over 40 of them Shaheds) overnight. Tu-22M3 bombers patrolled over Barents Sea for "Zapad-2025." MoD Russia posts video of "Zapad 2025" Baltic Fleet repelling uncrewed surface vehicle attack. Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeployed. Baltic Fleet naval aviation conducted combat use of UMPK and Kh-31A anti-ship missiles. MoD Russia posts video of Iskander-M missile system electronic launches in Kaliningrad. MoD Russia and Basurin confirm successful missile launch from a submarine in Barents-Sea. Convoy of at least one military truck with two attack helicopters providing escort observed in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Bangladesh, India, Iran, Burkina Faso, Congo, and Mali participated in "Zapad-2025." Russia tested naval hypersonic weapons. "Massive use of unmanned aircraft and ground robots" as a feature of "Zapad-2025." Frigate "Admiral Golovko" conducted a Zircon hypersonic missile strike. MoD Russia posts video of "Zapad-2025" exercises showing landing craft disembarking BMPs and IL-76 transport aircraft conducting large-scale airdrops. Practical phase of "Zapad-2025" exercises concluded in Leningrad Oblast. RF strikes on railway infrastructure. UAF Air Force reports enemy tactical aviation activity in Sea of Azov, and КАБы on Kherson, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts. First regular flight from Moscow to Krasnodar since 2022. CSTO command-staff exercises "Rubezh-2025" began in Kyrgyzstan. Reports RF troops leaving Belarusian training grounds. Video showcasing a Russian naval parade. US Commerce Department denied "Belavia" permission to operate Boeing flights to Russia. UAF Air Force reports new launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aviation on the border of Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. UAF Air Force warns of a high-speed target heading towards Kharkiv. MoD Russia posts video of Il-38 anti-submarine aircraft conducting practical bombing of ground targets. UAF Air Force reports attack UAVs in Synelnykove, Novgorod-Siversky districts, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk Oblasts, and heading towards Kryvyi Rih district. An RF drone strike on a gas station in Poltava district. Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs (КАБ) on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photos of RF Su-25s flying low. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Zaliznychne, Rizdvyanka, Kamyanske, Hryhorivka, Veselyanka of Zaporizhzhia region, Antonivka, Inhulets of Kherson region, citing UAF General Staff. MoD Russia posts video compilation "Rubikon in action." Полиция Хабаровского края posts video of RF Minister of Internal Affairs Kolokoltsev visiting a police armaments exhibition in China. ТАСС reports Lavrov is planning to meet with UN Secretary-General Guterres. MoD Russia posts video showing Army Aviation Ka-52m helicopter hitting AFU manpower and armored vehicles in the Sever Group of Forces responsibility. Air Force of Ukraine reports tactical aviation activity in the northeast direction, specifically launching guided aerial bombs (КАБ) towards Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБы ➡️ на Донеччину! (Guided aerial bombs towards Donetsk Oblast!). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district). ТАСС reports the US State Department approved a possible sale of Javelin missiles to Poland for $780 million. ТАСС posts video of "Красноярск" and "Омск" nuclear submarines of the Pacific Fleet performing "Onyx" and "Granit" cruise missile launches in the Okhotsk Sea during exercises. Colonelcassad posts a video showcasing China's military development, specifically the testing of armed "robot dogs." The video shows a quadruped robot firing what appears to be an RPG. Russian MO reports destroying over 85,000 UAF drones since the start of the SMO. (FACT, RF REPORT).
UAV/EW: Persistent FPV drone operations, reconnaissance UAV activity. Claims of destroying 80 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. "Molniya-2" UAVs adapted with fiber optics. Mass Shahed launches from three locations. Claims destruction of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone via FPV drone. Russia has managed to create a "drone production empire". RF air defense claims 87 RF UAVs were shot down overnight. UAF Air Force warns of multiple groups of RF UAVs approaching Kharkiv via Vilcha, Vovchansk, and Slatyne. Video claiming 218th Guards Tank Regiment air defense battery clearing skies of enemy drones. "Zephyr-M" UAV. UAF Air Force reports several UAV groups past Derhachi, heading towards Kharkiv. Russian drone invaded Lithuania was launched from Belarus. UAF Air Force reports a group of UAVs (mopeds) heading towards Nizhyn, Chernihiv Oblast. "Drone safety" in Saratov, Tambov, Voronezh, Rostov, and Volgograd Oblasts. A fire at Morozovsk airfield in Rostov Oblast. UAF Air Force reports new groups of RF attack UAVs (mopeds) detected over Kherson Oblast, heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast. MoD Russia posts new video showcasing diverse drone activity. UAF Air Force reports UAVs in Poltava suburbs and multiple groups of UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast heading towards Kamianske. UAF Air Force reports new groups of RF attack UAVs (mopeds) moving through Okhtyrka district, Sumy Oblast, towards Poltava Oblast. New drone danger warning for Bryansk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a new RF UAV (moped) heading towards Myrhorod in Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a UAV in Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Baturyn. "Ostatok po mopedam" update. Video of the "Torn-MDM" complex being used during "Zapad-2025" exercises. RF anti-icing technology for UAVs for extreme cold. Plans for anti-drone protected security zones in Russian border areas. UAF General Staff states RF has used over 2000 drones. RF FPV drone strike on a minibus in Vasylivsky district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF air defense destroyed 8 enemy UAVs overnight. Enemy reconnaissance UAV in Zaporizhzhia. Enemy attack UAV in Kramatorsk. Video of a UAF soldier picking up an RF fiber-optic FPV drone "KVN", which then detonates. UAF Air Force, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-УкраїНА all report 136 RF UAVs shot down/suppressed out of 172 launched, including over 100 Shaheds. Video with an Orlan-30 drone operator discussing its EW resistance. Bakonov states an analog of Starlink will soon appear in Russia. Claims Russian "Geraniums" (Shaheds) hit two substations overnight. Video of "Akhmat" SpN Regiment FPV drone reconnaissance on Sumy direction. Roscosmos CEO reported Russia will soon have its own satellite communication terminal. UAF Air Force warns of a high-speed target heading towards Kharkiv. Kotsnews claims "Rubikon" fighters shot down 1000 enemy drones. UAF Air Force reports attack UAVs in Synelnykove, Novgorod-Siversky districts, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk Oblasts, and heading towards Kryvyi Rih district. Colonelcassad reports the development of a polyamide net capable of neutralizing 50-100% of the kinetic energy of loitering munitions. Kotsnews reports AI is being implemented in the process of updating the Ruviki encyclopedia at Kazan Digital Week 2025. Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming "Akhmat" special forces successfully used a KVN drone to strike a UAF pickup truck with infantry in a wooded area on the Kharkiv direction, claiming "3 dead fighters." Два майора posts a video showcasing a possible Russian drone destroying a Ukrainian tank, implying RF drone effectiveness. "Операция Z" amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" claiming "Otvazhnye" forces are using "BABA-YAGA" drones to destroy NATO equipment, infantry, and enemy positions near Pokrovsk. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report a fragment of a Russian "Gerbera" (likely a UAV) was discovered on a beach in Latvia, indicating potential operational failures or increased reconnaissance activity by RF near NATO borders. Prime Minister Shmyhal states Ukraine will use 1000 interceptor drones per day in the near future. This indicates an urgent and substantial scale-up of UAF counter-UAV capabilities. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement that Ukraine will use 1000 interceptor drones per day in the near future, indicating a strategic shift towards large-scale counter-UAV operations. New intelligence from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS indicates Ukraine is producing 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month and aims for 7 missiles daily by year-end, signaling an increase in domestic missile production. Николаевский Ванёк reports three UAVs approaching Pavlohrad, and subsequent downing of drones. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine report over 20 Shaheds are heading from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv. The Air Force of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast. РБК-Україна posts a video message reporting RF has recently built a new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast, 35 km from the Ukrainian border, attributed to OSINT-analyst Brady Africk. РБК-Україна also posts a tactical analysis of a satellite image of the Bryansk Oblast launch site. This new site likely implies an increased and more direct drone threat to northern Ukraine, particularly Kyiv and Sumy Oblasts. Воин DV posts a video showing FPV drone operators from RF intercepting Ukrainian UAVs in the sky of Donbass. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posted a video claiming to show aerial combat on the Zaporizhzhia front, displaying FPV drone footage, telemetry data, and what appears to be a Ukrainian drone targeting Russian equipment. This indicates continued intense drone warfare. Kotsnews reports "Pantsir" anti-drone systems are now in service. (FACT, RF REPORT).
RF Intercepted Geran (Shahed): RF sources (Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны) publish video claiming to show the interception of a "Geran" (Shahed) drone by UAF using a "dear American missile." This implies RF is aware of UAF's advanced interception capabilities. (FACT, RF IO/CLAIM)
RF Laser Weaponry: Рыбарь posts "Laser goes to battle" in Russian, potentially indicating the deployment or development of laser weapons by RF, although this is highly speculative without further context. (FACT, RF CLAIM, HIGHLY SPECULATIVE)
RF Reconnaissance Drone (Sumy Oblast): UAF Air Force reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in northern Sumy Oblast, with countermeasures underway. These drones can serve as spotters for enemy fire. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Air Defense: Photos of a Pantsir-S1/S2 air defense system. RF air defense destroyed 10 enemy UAVs over Bryansk Oblast overnight. MoD Russia posts video of MiG-31bm fighter jets protecting long-range aircraft. PPO is working on drones in Kyiv Oblast and in Kyiv. Temporary flight restrictions at Volgograd, Kaluga, and Saratov airports. RF air defense intercepted and destroyed UAVs in five districts of Rostov Oblast. RF air defense destroyed 8 enemy UAVs overnight. UAF Air Force, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-УкраїНА all report 136 RF UAVs shot down/suppressed out of 172 launched. UAF Air Force reports the threat for Kharkiv has been lifted. RF MoD claims 6 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Belgorod Oblast. 7 RF UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in the evening. ТАСС reports PVO forces shot down six Ukrainian UAVs over Kursk, Belgorod, and Rostov Oblasts. The air raid alarm in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted. ASTRA reports temporary flight restrictions at Samara airport. Air Force of Ukraine reports tactical aviation activity in the northeast. Николаевский Ванёк reports Pavlohrad began defending against the drone attack, with a subsequent successful downing of drones. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports an air raid alert, followed by an all-clear. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a UAV was shot down over Kyiv overnight, with debris falling in multiple locations, as confirmed by KMVA, indicating successful defensive action. NEW INTELLIGENCE:
RF Air Defense Deliveries: Almaz-Antey concern delivered air defense equipment to RF troops ahead of schedule. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Ukraine Air Force F-16 Claim: Video depicts an alleged UAF F-16 shooting down an RF Shahed-136 with an AIM-9M/L missile. (FACT, UAF CLAIM, OPERATYVNY ZSU)
Zaporizhzhia Anti-Drone Tunnels: Zaporizhzhia Oblast is building dozens of kilometers of anti-drone tunnels to protect logistics. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Internal Security (Moscow Bomb Plot): Russian FSB reports thwarting a bomb plot in Moscow targeting a military vehicle, allegedly by an individual disguised as a woman and working under Ukrainian orders. The plot also reportedly targeted an RF Investigative Committee officer. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Internal Security (Cocaine Smuggling): FSB reports intercepting over 1.5 tons of cocaine from Ecuador in St. Petersburg port, valued at over 20 billion rubles. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Mining Prohibition Proposal: TASS reports a proposal to ban cryptocurrency mining during daytime in most RF regions to prevent electricity deficits in autumn/winter. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Russian-Laotian Military Exercise: MoD Russia reports the "Laros 2025" joint exercise has begun in Lao People's Democratic Republic. (FACT, RF REPORT)
North Korean UAV Demonstration: Alex Parker Returns and Военкор Котенок report North Korea demonstrated a new long-range UAV (10,000km range, nuclear capable), likely for strategic IO effect. (FACT, RF/PRO-RF IO) ASTRA reports North Korea has tested Kumsong series tactical strike drones. (FACT, RF REPORT).
RF EW Development: MoD Russia is establishing a separate institution for military-scientific research in EW system development. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Pulkovo Airport Cyberattack: TASS and Sever.Realii report the Pulkovo Airport website has been hacked, with service currently restricted. (FACT, RF REPORT) TASS later reported Pulkovo airport is operating normally and infrastructure is autonomous. (FACT, RF REPORT).
RF Mine Clearance Robot: Colonelcassad posts video of a "Kamikaze" robot-trawl for detecting and detonating anti-personnel mines. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Kozachi Laheri (Kherson Oblast): RF forces conducted raids on houses and shot three people around midnight on 18.09.2025 in occupied Kozachi Laheri. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Response to European Council Structure: Dmitry Medvedev (RF) states Moscow will give a harsh response to the creation of a "Russophobic" structure in the Council of Europe for collecting "compensation" from RF. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Russia-Philippines Aviation Resumption: Resumption of direct air travel between Russia and the Philippines is planned for October. (FACT, RF REPORT)
EU LNG Ban: The European Commission will propose banning Russian LNG imports by January 1, 2027, one year earlier than planned. (FACT, RF REPORT via Reuters)
Hungary Anti-Antifa: Hungary intends to recognize Antifa as a terrorist organization, following the USA. (FACT, RF REPORT via TASS)
RF Officer Casualties (Zaporizhzhia): ASTRA reports a widow confirmed 17 high-ranking officers died in a dugout fire in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (FACT, RF-aligned REPORT).
RF Artillery Air Cover (Kotsnews): Video showing RF drones providing air cover for assault groups against UAF heavy copters. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF SIM Card Restrictions (Roaming): Roskomnadzor plans to introduce restrictions for Russian SIM cards in roaming. (FACT, RF REPORT). This is likely an information control measure.
FSB Detention in Kaliningrad: "Операция Z" (citing "Военкоры Русской Весны") reports FSB detained an individual in Kaliningrad accused of aiding UAF. (FACT, RF REPORT).
RF Deputy Defense Minister Arrest: Former RF Deputy Minister of Defense Pavel Popov has been transferred back to "Lefortovo" pre-trial detention center for rehabilitation. (FACT, RF REPORT). This indicates ongoing internal investigations and challenges within RF military leadership.
EU Sanctions: The European Commission has approved the 19th package of sanctions against Russia. (FACT, UAF REPORT).
UN Meeting (Lavrov/Rubio): Lavrov and Rubio are planning a meeting on the sidelines of the 80th UNGA session. (FACT, RF REPORT).
Novosibirsk (RF): FSB/Police detained a suspect for setting fire to a cellular communication tower. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Spanish Support for Frozen Assets: Spain supports the use of frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine, as stated by the Spanish Minister of Economy Cuerpo. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
New EU Sanctions (19th Package): DeepState and Operatyvny ZSU report the European Commission has approved the 19th package of sanctions against Russia. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
New EU Sanctions (Vessel Targets): TASS reports the EC proposed sanctions against 118 vessels as part of the 19th package, as stated by von der Leyen. (FACT, RF REPORT)
New EU Sanctions (45 Companies): TASS reports the European Commission (EC) proposed sanctions against 45 Russian and foreign companies as part of the 19th package. (FACT, RF REPORT)
New EU Sanctions (Oil Price Cap): TASS reports the EC proposed lowering the price cap on Russian oil to $47.6 per barrel. (FACT, RF REPORT)
New EU Sanctions (Mir Payment System): TASS reports the EU intends to impose restrictive measures against the Russian "Mir" payment system. (FACT, RF REPORT)
New EU Sanctions (Rosneft/Gazpromneft): TASS reports the EC proposed a complete ban on all transactions with "Rosneft" and "Gazpromneft" as part of the 19th sanctions package. (FACT, RF REPORT)
New EU Sanctions (Third Countries): TASS reports the EC will propose sanctions against third countries, including China, for allegedly aiding the Russian military-industrial complex. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Hungary Funding Unfreeze (EU): TASS reports the EC plans to unfreeze around €550 million for Hungary to bypass Budapest's veto on sanctions against RF. (FACT, RF REPORT)
EU Visa Policy (Russians): Новости Москвы reports the EU decided not to restrict Schengen visa issuance for Russians. (FACT, RF REPORT) TASS further confirms the EC head did not mention tougher visa regimes for Russian tourists. (FACT, RF REPORT)
UAF Forces:
Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (Confidence: HIGH):
Public Sentiment and Morale Factors (Confidence: MEDIUM):
International Support and Diplomatic Developments (Confidence: HIGH):
Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:
Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (Confidence: HIGH):
Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (Confidence: HIGH):
Resource Requirements and Constraints (Confidence: MEDIUM):
Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (Confidence: HIGH):
Public Sentiment and Morale Factors (Confidence: MEDIUM):
International Support and Diplomatic Developments (Confidence: HIGH):
Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH):
Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: MEDIUM):
Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:
//END REPORT//
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