Archived operational intelligence briefing
TIME: 191200Z SEP 25
RF forces maintain multi-axis pressure across the Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia axes. Heavy reciprocal battles continue in Sumy Oblast. RF claims unverified advances in Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, and occupation of the medical college area in Kupiansk, with military control and fortifications on the Velikoburlukskoye direction. RF claims a 5km advance on the Gulyaipole direction, entering Novoivanivka, and new positions south of Novoivanivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF claims full control of Serebryansky forestry, representing a significant territorial gain on the Lyman direction, if verified. RF claims UAF "complains" about RF advances in Kupiansk, with RF sources amplifying reports of "chaos and disorganization" and a "failed defense." RF footage displays dynamic combat engagements in a forest environment, explosions, and smoke. Kotsnews posts video claiming "liberation of Novonikolaevka" with Russian assault troops detailing mine clearing. Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming soldiers of the 270th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Akhmat-Caucasus" destroyed enemy positions in Malaya Tokmachka area. ТАСС posts video claiming Tornado-S MLRS crews destroyed three temporary deployment points of a UAF brigade in Konstantinovka. Colonelcassad reports a cluster Iskander strike on a UAF company tactical group near Druzhkivka. Воин DV posts video detailing renewed artillery strikes and attacks on enemy personnel in the Polozhskoye direction by the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo message showing a tactical map of a contested area, suggesting ongoing ground combat and RF claims of UAF setbacks in Kupiansk. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports over 80 combat engagements in the last 24 hours. The Kramatorsk direction saw 15 RF assaults near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Mykolayivka, Stupochky, Bila Hora, and Andriivka, with UAF repelling 12. The Pokrovsk direction remains the hottest, with 28 assaults near Volodymyrivka, Zapovidne, Novoekonomichne, Shevchenko, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne, Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Vilne, Chervonyi Lyman, Myrnohrad, Rodynske, Promin, Zvirove, Molodetske, Novopidhorodne, Novopavlivka, and Filiya, with 20 repelled. On the Novopavlivka direction, 26 assaults were near Yalta, Shevchenko, Komyshuvakha, Vorone, Ternove, Novoivanivka, Filiya, Ivanivka, Iskra, Sichneve, Olhivske, and Poltavka, with 21 repelled. On the Orikhiv direction, 7 assaults occurred near Kamyanske and towards Novodanylivka, with 6 repelled. On the Kherson direction, UAF repelled 4 Russian army assaults. On the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions, UAF repelled 7 Russian army assaults. This indicates sustained and heavy RF pressure across all key axes, particularly Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka. UAF has confirmed the liberation of Pankivka, Donetsk Oblast, and Zarichne. UAF reports eliminating a Russian breakthrough near Pokrovsk with ongoing cleanup operations. Drone footage from the 'Battle for Pokrovsk,' displays successful strikes against RF targets. UAF "Pion" artillery is operating on the Donetsk direction. FPV drone footage of night combat operations by the 6th Battalion of the Azov Brigade shows thermal imagery of strikes. UAF forces have flooded a gas pipe in Kupiansk, attempting to thwart RF infiltration, and deny RF claims of fighting in the city center. UAF 15th Separate Artillery Reconnaissance Brigade "Black Forest" successfully destroyed an RF Buk-M2 SAM system (video confirmed). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts video claiming six accurate strikes by the "STRIKS" unit on the Southern Slobozhansky direction. Олександр Вілкул posts photo messages of the 77th Airmobile Brigade on the front. Оперативний ЗСУ posts drone footage showing Ukrainian forces identifying and striking a Russian artillery position and communication antenna in Kharkiv Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС highlights how the 1st Assault Regiment (1-й ОШП) "cut the pincers" of Russians near Dobropillya. President Zelenskyy met with soldiers of the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade participating in the defense of Myrnohrad and the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation, reporting 160 sq km liberated and 7 settlements freed. UAF's "Shadow" unit posts video of successful drone strikes on RF shelters ("укриттям"), indicating continued precision targeting of enemy fortifications. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts video showing the UAF 1st Assault Battalion holding its front line in Zaporizhzhia, destroying enemy forces "far from the line of contact" using FPV drones, indicating robust long-range defensive capabilities. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts video of "STRIKS" unit FPV drone operators from the 4th Border Guard Detachment destroying two enemy positions, a shelter, a BMP, and two vehicles (one laden with ammunition) on the Southern Slobozhansky direction. This highlights continued UAF tactical successes using FPV drones. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts photos of President Zelenskyy meeting with the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade at their command post, acknowledging their participation in the defense of Mirnohrad and the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video depicting drone footage of Ukrainian military positions, specifically trenches, being targeted and struck by munitions, with a logo of what appears to be a Ukrainian military insignia and a unit emblem with drones and an eagle, suggesting successful strikes against enemy positions. The caption reads "Окупантам не сховатися" (Occupiers cannot hide). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a video compilation showing intense combat engagements from a drone's perspective on the Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Kupiansk directions, documenting numerous RF artillery strikes and personnel losses. Two Ukrainian reconnaissance companies, including the "VARTOVI" unmanned systems battalion of Mykolaiv marines, are actively engaging Russian military assets, targeting vehicle convoys, artillery, and infantry positions. UAF drone operators from the 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" successfully destroyed eight Russian assault troops on the Pokrovsk direction. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides an operational update for 22:00, 18.09.2025, confirming UAF repelled the majority of RF assaults across multiple axes, indicating successful defensive operations despite heavy pressure. ТАСС reports RF Deputy Commander of a VDV assault battalion claims UAF forces are abandoning NATO weapons during retreat in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (UNVERIFIED RF IO) Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posted a video claiming to show aerial combat on the Zaporizhzhia front, displaying FPV drone footage, telemetry data, and what appears to be a Ukrainian drone targeting Russian equipment. This indicates continued intense drone warfare.
NEW INTELLIGENCE:
Current conditions are generally clear and favorable for air operations across most of Ukraine. A cold front is moving into the Carpathians with temperatures dropping to -2°C, and snow is possible soon. The strongest geomagnetic storm in 3 months (G3) continues to impact satellite communications and GPS for both sides.
RF launched three S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles, one Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile, and 75 drones (over 40 of them Shaheds) overnight against Ukraine. 48 RF UAVs were shot down/suppressed. Persistent RF UAV threats affect Sumy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Odesa, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Poltava Oblasts. Zaporizhzhia experienced at least TEN strikes, killing one person and injuring 20, causing power outages. Sumy Oblast suffered two drone impacts, causing power outages and a warehouse fire. RF dropped three FAB-250 glide bombs on Kramatorsk, injuring 19. UAF Air Force warns of guided aerial bomb launches on Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Nizhyn suffered the "most massive strike from the beginning of the war" with dozens of drones, damaging critical infrastructure. Explosions confirmed in Sumy. Yampil is reported to be burning. Large fire at Kyiv logistics center liquidated after repeated morning attacks. UAF Air Force warns of several UAV groups past Derhachi, heading towards Kharkiv. RF sources report "powerful explosions in Balakliia (Kharkiv Oblast)" with videos of large smoke plumes. New RF drone group detections for Chernihiv Oblast towards Baturyn and renewed explosions in Kropyvnytskyi. Critical infrastructure hit by RF UAVs in Cherkasy Oblast. Large fire engulfing a multi-story building in Kyiv reported. КАБы on Kherson, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts. Five strong explosions in Petrovsky district of Donetsk. RF drone strike on a gas station in Poltava district, causing a fire and one casualty. UAF Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs (КАБ) on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. РБК-Україна reports Russians struck a residential area of Konstantinovka with a guided aerial bomb (КАБ), killing 5 people. Air Force of Ukraine reports tactical aviation activity in the northeast direction, specifically launching guided aerial bombs (КАБ) towards Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБы ➡️ на Донеччину! (Guided aerial bombs towards Donetsk Oblast!). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district). Николаевский Ванёк reports three UAVs approaching Pavlohrad, and subsequent defensive actions and successful downing of UAVs in Pavlohrad. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a person was injured in Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast, due to a drone attack and falling debris. Three women were injured in Vozdvyzhivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, due to an enemy attack, further increasing civilian casualties. The Kyiv City Military Administration (КМВА) has reported the all-clear for Kyiv, while the subway restores normal operations.
NEW INTELLIGENCE:
RF Forces:
Ground: Multi-axis offensives continue with claims of advances in Krasnoarmeysk-Dmitrov, "grinding down" elite UAF units on Dobropillya direction, and entering Konstantinovka city limits. RF claims offensive development at the junction of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with claims of "liberating" Olhivske and Sosnovka. "Kurier" and "Fagot" UGVs deployed. Heavy reciprocal battles in Sumy Oblast. FAB strikes continue in Kalinovsky, targeting UAF logistics. Assault on Yampil has started, utilizing civilian clothing for disguise and human shields. North Korean 107-mm Type1963 MLRS observed. RF expanding bridgehead in Volchansk. RF Naval Infantry advancing in Sumy Oblast. RF Army actively advancing in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF detailing movements and territorial control changes in Zaporizhzhia (Stepnohirsk, Orikhiv, Tokmak). RF has taken fire control of approximately 5 km of H-26 highway near Stepova Novoselivka, leading to Kupiansk. RF continues to advance on Konstantinovka direction, with "pincers closing." Putin observed "Zapad-2025" exercises. RF claims full control of Serebryansky forestry. VDV performing parachute and armored vehicle air-dropping operations during "Zapad-2025." Tactical map claiming RF is developing an offensive at the junction of DPR, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. RF claims "Anwar" special forces destroyed a Swedish "S-tank" while supporting an offensive towards Sumy (highly unusual, likely IO). Multiple videos claiming the liberation of Novopetrovskoye. RF claims UAF attacks on DPR border led to increased RF strikes on enemy rear. RF claims destruction of a Paladin SAU, and successful destruction of UAF attempts to cross Dnieper. Video of a captured Russian soldier, Mikhail Stepanov, describing harsh combat conditions, coercive tactics, and low morale. Forced evacuation from 18 settlements in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. "Akhmat" SpN Regiment FPV drone reconnaissance on Sumy direction. Duma committee approved veteran status for volunteers in assault units. RF claims "Sparta" unit destroyed a UAF UAV control post. RF and UAF-affiliated sources amplify Deep State's report that RF forces are entering and consolidating in residential areas of Kupiansk. The captured RF soldier claims his unit used a gas pipe to infiltrate Kupiansk. RF military expert claims UAF created powerful underground fortifications in residential Konstantinovka. RF claims an offensive behind Chasiv Yar, with airborne forces destroying enemy defenses. Special incendiary detachment of 16th Guards NBC Protection Brigade, "Vostok" Group, using thermobaric munitions on Vremevskoye direction. MoD Russia posts video features Russian soldiers discussing UAV attacks, small group infiltrations by AFU, and the establishment of a buffer zone. MoD Russia claim of destroying a 3-person Ukrainian DRG attempting to infiltrate Kursk Oblast near Tetkino. Colonelcassad posts drone footage claiming to show a destroyed UAF M1A1 Abrams tank on the Sumy front (unverified). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claims "Anwar" special forces hit a rare Swedish Strv 103 tank in the Sumy border region (unverified). MoD Russia posts video showcasing RF MLRS firing rounds. Colonelcassad claims RF forces successfully crossed the Volchya River and are advancing in eastern Ivanovka. MoD Russia posts video claiming a T-80BVM tank crew destroyed an enemy stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a message: "Family, friends, brothers and sisters, we urgently need drones🚀." Старше Эдды claims RF forces have taken control of the outskirts of Kupiansk. Операция Z amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" video claiming RF VDV are destroying UAF positions and advancing on the Sumy front. Colonelcassad posts map claiming assault groups occupied new positions south of Novoivanivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of captured Russian soldiers in Kupiansk detailing orders to kill Ukrainian men and infiltration via a gas pipe. ТАСС reports Russian sergeant Dinir Shavaleev broke into an enemy dugout alone and eliminated two Ukrainian soldiers. Два майора posts video regarding drone repair and creation for marine infantry on Sumy direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video of RF soldiers evacuating a heavy, injured soldier. MoD Russia posts video of T-72B3M tanks neutralizing UAF positions in the LPR. Colonelcassad posts new map updates detailing RF ground advances over the past 24 hours, particularly around Kupiansk. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Kotsnews post drone footage of artillery strikes by "Vostok" Group on UAF fortified positions near Gavrilovka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк claims 18 officers of the operational staff of the RF 35th Combined Arms Army were killed in a sabotage operation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (unverified by UAF, but casualty list adds credibility). «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» posts thermal and daylight drone footage from the Sumy direction showing interception of an enemy drone and strike on an "enemy antenna." MoD Russia posts a photo message summarizing the progress of the special military operation as of 18 September 2025. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a video showing a Russian T-72 variant tank maneuvering and firing. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming RF forces eliminated a UAF platoon in Konstantinovka. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video of Solovyov proposing replacing Russian border guards with North Koreans. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of Ukrainian border guards striking three enemy vehicles and manpower in the Southern direction. Janus Putkonen posts an image with the caption "Army Corps Zapad-2025 ended and training troops are moving to real operations against Kyiv forces." Alex Parker Returns posts video about high financial incentives for contract service in Moscow (6M rubles annually, 3.1M lump sum, 260k salary, 10M debt forgiveness). MoD Russia posts video showing signal units of the Tsentr Group of Forces deploying a secured radio network between forward units and a command post in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Воин DV posts video detailing the situation on the Southern Donetsk direction, specifically mentioning fighting in Novoivanovka, and shows drone footage of artillery strikes. Рыбарь posts a tactical map overlay for "fights in the agglomeration." Операция Z amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" claiming RF Army is breaking through to Zaporizhzhia via Kamyanske and Plavni, citing Ukrainian speaker Voloshyn. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video quoting Putin on over 700,000 Russian military personnel on the line of contact. Воин DV posts photos of Russian tank brigade soldiers from Buryatia being awarded. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video with captured RF soldiers discussing murder charges. Colonelcassad reports a cluster Iskander strike on a UAF company tactical group near Druzhkivka. "Два майора" posts a message from Putin to State Duma leaders, emphasizing the government's reliance on their support, indicating an ongoing effort to maintain political cohesion for the war. "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" posts a photo message claiming a person accused of raping a minor stepdaughter was released to fight in the war, indicating continued controversial recruitment practices. "Николаевский Ванёк" posts an exclusive video of a captured Cuban national from the 81st Airmobile Brigade, providing HUMINT on RF recruitment of foreign nationals and their combat experience. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming strikes on UAF positions on the Donetsk direction. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition amplifies Putin's statement that the "combined grouping of Russian forces in the SMO zone is over 700,000 servicemen," claiming "our fighters have no equals in the world." Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming "Akhmat" special forces successfully used a KVN drone to strike a UAF pickup truck with infantry in a wooded area on the Kharkiv direction, claiming "3 dead fighters." Игорь Артамонов posts a photo message highlighting a father of three, a Cossack and patriot, serving as a volunteer on the front since 2022, indicating continued RF volunteer recruitment and morale boosting. Воин DV posts video of drone operators from the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade conducting effective strikes against enemy manpower in the Polozhskoye direction, demonstrating continued offensive operations. Два майора posts a video compilation, including what appears to be a Russian tank being destroyed by UAF forces, suggesting ongoing tactical losses for RF. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo of a tactical map claiming a critical situation in Kupiansk, implying potential RF advances or UAF tactical setbacks in the area. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" states that their unit is experiencing a "difficult period," indicating possible operational strain. Russian forces are distributing leaflets in Velyka Pysarivka, Sumy Oblast, calling for "evacuation." "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a video showing Russian military personnel loading crates with Cyrillic text onto a vehicle, indicating routine logistical operations. Colonelcassad highlights "Aid's" comments on shotguns against FPV drones, suggesting tactical adaptations. Военкор Котенок posts a video showing a mix of medical emergency response and military training/operations footage, with a caption indicating a deficit of medics at the front. Операция Z amplifies a video showing Russian President Vladimir Putin discussing the establishment of a federal holiday for veterans of special military operations. Colonelcassad posts video claiming successful FPV drone and artillery strikes by RF's 3rd Army Corps on a UAF 155mm M109A5 self-propelled howitzer near Konstantinovka, supporting claims of continued high-intensity combat and RF precision capabilities. Воин DV posts a video showing military vehicles and apparent combat in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by RF "CENTER" and "VOSTOK" groups, suggesting ongoing RF ground operations and pressure in the area. Два майора posts a photo message showing a body exchange, confirming the ongoing process of exchanging fallen soldiers between both sides. Alex Parker Returns posts a grim video showing decomposing bodies in military fatigues and a scorched forest, indicating recent heavy combat and significant casualties, likely RF losses given the channel's general bias. Colonelcassad posts video claiming an UAF DRG of 4 militants armed with a "Baba-Yaga" heavy hexacopter was destroyed on the right bank of the Dnieper in Kherson Oblast while attempting to cross to the left bank. Alex Parker Returns shares information from Russian sources alleging that Rostec structures are servicing UAF helicopters (Mi-8MT/MTB) via AAL Group Ltd., registered in the UAE. Colonelcassad posts video on Wagner Group training Belarusian forces for 2 years, highlighting their combat experience in Syria and Africa. Alex Parker Returns posts video depicting a green pickup truck with supplies driving through a heavily damaged village, possibly from a forward logistics operation. New intelligence shows that the Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration, Dmitry Kozak, has been dismissed. Colonelcassad has posted videos of an exhibition "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" in Moscow's Victory Museum, showcasing Russian military heroism and destroyed enemy equipment. This includes an interactive map of military operations. OSINT-analyst Brady Africk reports RF has recently built a new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast, 35 km from the Ukrainian border. "Военкоры Русской Весны" (amplified by Операция Z) claims a former UAF officer who defected in 2014 is commanding the Russian offensive on Kupiansk. ТАСС reports RF Deputy Commander of a VDV assault battalion claims UAF forces are abandoning NATO weapons during retreat in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ТАСС reports RF forces advanced near Kupyansk, specifically at Kucherovka and Petropavlovka, clearing a tree line and destroying a UAF fortified area. ТАСС posts a video claiming a Croatian citizen, who recently obtained Russian citizenship, surrendered to Russian FPV drone operators in Zaporizhzhia Oblast while serving with UAF. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message with the caption " Airborne brotherhood, good morning!", a morale-boosting message likely depicting RF VDV forces. Astra reports 17 high-ranking military officers died in a dugout fire in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (FACT, RF-aligned REPORT).
[New] Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS: WarGonzo posts video showing a Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS firing in a wooded area, with interviews of crew members (callsigns 'MANGUST', 'DZHANGO'). This confirms active artillery support and operational context for MLRS. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Air/Naval: High concentration of strategic bombers. "West-2025" and "Rubezh 2025" exercises ongoing, involving significant naval deployments and strategic aviation. OAK handed over another batch of new Su-34 fighter-bombers. RF launched three S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles and 75 drones (over 40 of them Shaheds) overnight. Tu-22M3 bombers patrolled over Barents Sea for "Zapad-2025." MoD Russia posts video of "Zapad 2025" Baltic Fleet repelling uncrewed surface vehicle attack. Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeployed. Baltic Fleet naval aviation conducted combat use of UMPK and Kh-31A anti-ship missiles. MoD Russia posts video of Iskander-M missile system electronic launches in Kaliningrad. MoD Russia and Basurin confirm successful missile launch from a submarine in Barents-Sea. Convoy of at least one military truck with two attack helicopters providing escort observed in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Bangladesh, India, Iran, Burkina Faso, Congo, and Mali participated in "Zapad-2025." Russia tested naval hypersonic weapons. "Massive use of unmanned aircraft and ground robots" as a feature of "Zapad-2025." Frigate "Admiral Golovko" conducted a Zircon hypersonic missile strike. MoD Russia posts video of "Zapad-2025" exercises showing landing craft disembarking BMPs and IL-76 transport aircraft conducting large-scale airdrops. Practical phase of "Zapad-2025" exercises concluded in Leningrad Oblast. RF strikes on railway infrastructure. UAF Air Force reports enemy tactical aviation activity in Sea of Azov, and КАБы on Kherson, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts. First regular flight from Moscow to Krasnodar since 2022. CSTO command-staff exercises "Rubezh-2025" began in Kyrgyzstan. Reports RF troops leaving Belarusian training grounds. Video showcasing a Russian naval parade. US Commerce Department denied "Belavia" permission to operate Boeing flights to Russia. UAF Air Force reports new launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aviation on the border of Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. UAF Air Force warns of a high-speed target heading towards Kharkiv. MoD Russia posts video of Il-38 anti-submarine aircraft conducting practical bombing of ground targets. UAF Air Force reports attack UAVs in Synelnykove, Novgorod-Siversky districts, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk Oblasts, and heading towards Kryvyi Rih district. An RF drone strike on a gas station in Poltava district. Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs (КАБ) on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photos of RF Su-25s flying low. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Zaliznychne, Rizdvyanka, Kamyanske, Hryhorivka, Veselyanka of Zaporizhzhia region, Antonivka, Inhulets of Kherson region, citing UAF General Staff. MoD Russia posts video compilation "Rubikon in action." Полиция Хабаровского края posts video of RF Minister of Internal Affairs Kolokoltsev visiting a police armaments exhibition in China. ТАСС reports Lavrov is planning to meet with UN Secretary-General Guterres. MoD Russia posts video showing Army Aviation Ka-52m helicopter hitting AFU manpower and armored vehicles in the Sever Group of Forces responsibility. Air Force of Ukraine reports tactical aviation activity in the northeast direction, specifically launching guided aerial bombs (КАБ) towards Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБы ➡️ на Донеччину! (Guided aerial bombs towards Donetsk Oblast!). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district). ТАСС reports the US State Department approved a possible sale of Javelin missiles to Poland for $780 million. ТАСС posts video of "Красноярск" and "Омск" nuclear submarines of the Pacific Fleet performing "Onyx" and "Granit" cruise missile launches in the Okhotsk Sea during exercises. Colonelcassad posts a video showcasing China's military development, specifically the testing of armed "robot dogs." The video shows a quadruped robot firing what appears to be an RPG. Russian MO reports destroying over 85,000 UAF drones since the start of the SMO. (FACT, RF REPORT).
UAV/EW: Persistent FPV drone operations, reconnaissance UAV activity. Claims of destroying 80 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. "Molniya-2" UAVs adapted with fiber optics. Mass Shahed launches from three locations. Claims destruction of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone via FPV drone. Russia has managed to create a "drone production empire". RF air defense claims 87 RF UAVs were shot down overnight. UAF Air Force warns of multiple groups of RF UAVs approaching Kharkiv via Vilcha, Vovchansk, and Slatyne. Video claiming 218th Guards Tank Regiment air defense battery clearing skies of enemy drones. "Zephyr-M" UAV. UAF Air Force reports several UAV groups past Derhachi, heading towards Kharkiv. Russian drone invaded Lithuania was launched from Belarus. UAF Air Force reports a group of UAVs (mopeds) heading towards Nizhyn, Chernihiv Oblast. "Drone safety" in Saratov, Tambov, Voronezh, Rostov, and Volgograd Oblasts. A fire at Morozovsk airfield in Rostov Oblast. UAF Air Force reports new groups of RF attack UAVs (mopeds) detected over Kherson Oblast, heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast. MoD Russia posts new video showcasing diverse drone activity. UAF Air Force reports UAVs in Poltava suburbs and multiple groups of UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast heading towards Kamianske. UAF Air Force reports new groups of RF attack UAVs (mopeds) moving through Okhtyrka district, Sumy Oblast, towards Poltava Oblast. New drone danger warning for Bryansk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a new RF UAV (moped) heading towards Myrhorod in Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a UAV in Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Baturyn. "Ostatok po mopedam" update. Video of the "Torn-MDM" complex being used during "Zapad-2025" exercises. RF anti-icing technology for UAVs for extreme cold. Plans for anti-drone protected security zones in Russian border areas. UAF General Staff states RF has used over 2000 drones. RF FPV drone strike on a minibus in Vasylivsky district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF air defense destroyed 8 enemy UAVs overnight. Enemy reconnaissance UAV in Zaporizhzhia. Enemy attack UAV in Kramatorsk. Video of a UAF soldier picking up an RF fiber-optic FPV drone "KVN", which then detonates. UAF Air Force, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-УкраїНА all report 136 RF UAVs shot down/suppressed out of 172 launched, including over 100 Shaheds. Video with an Orlan-30 drone operator discussing its EW resistance. Bakonov states an analog of Starlink will soon appear in Russia. Claims Russian "Geraniums" (Shaheds) hit two substations overnight. Video of "Akhmat" SpN Regiment FPV drone reconnaissance on Sumy direction. Roscosmos CEO reported Russia will soon have its own satellite communication terminal. UAF Air Force warns of a high-speed target heading towards Kharkiv. Kotsnews claims "Rubikon" fighters shot down 1000 enemy drones. UAF Air Force reports attack UAVs in Synelnykove, Novgorod-Siversky districts, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk Oblasts, and heading towards Kryvyi Rih district. Colonelcassad reports the development of a polyamide net capable of neutralizing 50-100% of the kinetic energy of loitering munitions. Kotsnews reports AI is being implemented in the process of updating the Ruviki encyclopedia at Kazan Digital Week 2025. Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming "Akhmat" special forces successfully used a KVN drone to strike a UAF pickup truck with infantry in a wooded area on the Kharkiv direction, claiming "3 dead fighters." Два майора posts a video showcasing a possible Russian drone destroying a Ukrainian tank, implying RF drone effectiveness. "Операция Z" amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" claiming "Otvazhnye" forces are using "BABA-YAGA" drones to destroy NATO equipment, infantry, and enemy positions near Pokrovsk. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report a fragment of a Russian "Gerbera" (likely a UAV) was discovered on a beach in Latvia, indicating potential operational failures or increased reconnaissance activity by RF near NATO borders. Prime Minister Shmyhal states Ukraine will use 1000 interceptor drones per day in the near future. This indicates an urgent and substantial scale-up of UAF counter-UAV capabilities. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement that Ukraine will use 1000 interceptor drones per day in the near future, indicating a strategic shift towards large-scale counter-UAV operations. New intelligence from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS indicates Ukraine is producing 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month and aims for 7 missiles daily by year-end, signaling an increase in domestic missile production. Николаевский Ванёк reports three UAVs approaching Pavlohrad, and subsequent downing of drones. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine report over 20 Shaheds are heading from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv. The Air Force of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast. РБК-Україна posts a video message reporting RF has recently built a new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast, 35 km from the Ukrainian border, attributed to OSINT-analyst Brady Africk. РБК-Україна also posts a tactical analysis of a satellite image of the Bryansk Oblast launch site. This new site likely implies an increased and more direct drone threat to northern Ukraine, particularly Kyiv and Sumy Oblasts. Воин DV posts a video showing FPV drone operators from RF intercepting Ukrainian UAVs in the sky of Donbass. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posted a video claiming to show aerial combat on the Zaporizhzhia front, displaying FPV drone footage, telemetry data, and what appears to be a Ukrainian drone targeting Russian equipment. This indicates continued intense drone warfare. Kotsnews reports "Pantsir" anti-drone systems are now in service. (FACT, RF REPORT).
[New] RF Intercepted Geran (Shahed): RF sources (Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны) publish video claiming to show the interception of a "Geran" (Shahed) drone by UAF using a "dear American missile." This implies RF is aware of UAF's advanced interception capabilities. (FACT, RF IO/CLAIM)
Air Defense: Photos of a Pantsir-S1/S2 air defense system. RF air defense destroyed 10 enemy UAVs over Bryansk Oblast overnight. MoD Russia posts video of MiG-31bm fighter jets protecting long-range aircraft. PPO is working on drones in Kyiv Oblast and in Kyiv. Temporary flight restrictions at Volgograd, Kaluga, and Saratov airports. RF air defense intercepted and destroyed UAVs in five districts of Rostov Oblast. RF air defense destroyed 8 enemy UAVs overnight. UAF Air Force, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-УкраїНА all report 136 RF UAVs shot down/suppressed out of 172 launched. UAF Air Force reports the threat for Kharkiv has been lifted. RF MoD claims 6 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Belgorod Oblast. 7 RF UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in the evening. ТАСС reports PVO forces shot down six Ukrainian UAVs over Kursk, Belgorod, and Rostov Oblasts. The air raid alarm in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted. ASTRA reports temporary flight restrictions at Samara airport. Air Force of Ukraine reports tactical aviation activity in the northeast. Николаевский Ванёк reports Pavlohrad began defending against the drone attack, with a subsequent successful downing of drones. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports an air raid alert, followed by an all-clear. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a UAV was shot down over Kyiv overnight, with debris falling in multiple locations, as confirmed by KMVA, indicating successful defensive action. NEW INTELLIGENCE:
RF Air Defense Deliveries: Almaz-Antey concern delivered air defense equipment to RF troops ahead of schedule. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Ukraine Air Force F-16 Claim: Video depicts an alleged UAF F-16 shooting down an RF Shahed-136 with an AIM-9M/L missile. (FACT, UAF CLAIM, OPERATYVNY ZSU)
Zaporizhzhia Anti-Drone Tunnels: Zaporizhzhia Oblast is building dozens of kilometers of anti-drone tunnels to protect logistics. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Internal Security (Moscow Bomb Plot): Russian FSB reports thwarting a bomb plot in Moscow targeting a military vehicle, allegedly by an individual disguised as a woman and working under Ukrainian orders. The plot also reportedly targeted an RF Investigative Committee officer. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Internal Security (Cocaine Smuggling): FSB reports intercepting over 1.5 tons of cocaine from Ecuador in St. Petersburg port, valued at over 20 billion rubles. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Mining Prohibition Proposal: TASS reports a proposal to ban cryptocurrency mining during daytime in most RF regions to prevent electricity deficits in autumn/winter. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Russian-Laotian Military Exercise: MoD Russia reports the "Laros 2025" joint exercise has begun in Lao People's Democratic Republic. (FACT, RF REPORT)
North Korean UAV Demonstration: Alex Parker Returns and Военкор Котенок report North Korea demonstrated a new long-range UAV (10,000km range, nuclear capable), likely for strategic IO effect. (FACT, RF/PRO-RF IO) ASTRA reports North Korea has tested Kumsong series tactical strike drones. (FACT, RF REPORT).
RF EW Development: MoD Russia is establishing a separate institution for military-scientific research in EW system development. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Pulkovo Airport Cyberattack: TASS and Sever.Realii report the Pulkovo Airport website has been hacked, with service currently restricted. (FACT, RF REPORT) TASS later reported Pulkovo airport is operating normally and infrastructure is autonomous. (FACT, RF REPORT).
RF Mine Clearance Robot: Colonelcassad posts video of a "Kamikaze" robot-trawl for detecting and detonating anti-personnel mines. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Kozachi Laheri (Kherson Oblast): RF forces conducted raids on houses and shot three people around midnight on 18.09.2025 in occupied Kozachi Laheri. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Response to European Council Structure: Dmitry Medvedev (RF) states Moscow will give a harsh response to the creation of a "Russophobic" structure in the Council of Europe for collecting "compensation" from RF. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Russia-Philippines Aviation Resumption: Resumption of direct air travel between Russia and the Philippines is planned for October. (FACT, RF REPORT)
EU LNG Ban: The European Commission will propose banning Russian LNG imports by January 1, 2027, one year earlier than planned. (FACT, RF REPORT via Reuters)
Hungary Anti-Antifa: Hungary intends to recognize Antifa as a terrorist organization, following the USA. (FACT, RF REPORT via TASS)
RF Officer Casualties (Zaporizhzhia): ASTRA reports a widow confirmed 17 high-ranking officers died in a dugout fire in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (FACT, RF-aligned REPORT).
RF Artillery Air Cover (Kotsnews): Video showing RF drones providing air cover for assault groups against UAF heavy copters. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF SIM Card Restrictions (Roaming): Roskomnadzor plans to introduce restrictions for Russian SIM cards in roaming. (FACT, RF REPORT). This is likely an information control measure.
FSB Detention in Kaliningrad: "Операция Z" (citing "Военкоры Русской Весны") reports FSB detained an individual in Kaliningrad accused of aiding UAF. (FACT, RF REPORT).
RF Deputy Defense Minister Arrest: Former RF Deputy Minister of Defense Pavel Popov has been transferred back to "Lefortovo" pre-trial detention center for rehabilitation. (FACT, RF REPORT). This indicates ongoing internal investigations and challenges within RF military leadership.
EU Sanctions: The European Commission has approved the 19th package of sanctions against Russia. (FACT, UAF REPORT).
UN Meeting (Lavrov/Rubio): Lavrov and Rubio are planning a meeting on the sidelines of the 80th UNGA session. (FACT, RF REPORT).
Novosibirsk (RF): FSB/Police detained a suspect for setting fire to a cellular communication tower. (FACT, RF REPORT)
UAF Forces:
Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (Confidence: HIGH):
RF Narratives: RF is actively attempting to discredit UAF's counter-offensive success in Donetsk, downplay its own losses, and amplify any perceived UAF setbacks or disorganization. They are aggressively using the Konstantinovka civilian casualties and the 1000:24 body exchange ratio (highly exaggerated) to paint a picture of UAF failure and RF military prowess. RF IO is leveraging Trump's statements to sow confusion and portray Western disunity on Ukraine support, particularly his "Putin let me down" and "terrible relations between Putin and Zelenskyy" comments. They are attempting to link rising antisemitism in Europe to broader societal decay (Flensburg incident) to deflect from their own actions. RF is also using narratives of internal RF stability and normalcy (Kamchatka earthquake, civilian fundraising efforts for armor) to mask the impact of the war. They actively promote their military technology and manpower. RF will use the US Gaza ceasefire veto to portray the US as hypocritical. Alex Parker Returns's claim of Rostec structures servicing UAF helicopters is a new, subtle IO attempt to sow distrust and imply corruption or collaboration. Colonelcassad's video of UAF DRG destruction aims to project RF defensive successes and UAF losses. Colonelcassad's promotion of Wagner training in Belarus aims to enhance the image of RF military capability and expertise. RF continues to challenge international decisions (MH17) to portray itself as a victim of international bias. MoD Russia's "Top News Today" serves as a general IO effort to control the daily narrative. The ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ channel's complaints about a low-participation fundraising marathon might inadvertently reveal internal strains within some pro-RF volunteer networks, but is framed as a call for more support. ТАСС reports Putin released Kozak from his position as Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration. RF IO will likely frame this as a routine or positive administrative change to reinforce an image of strong, decisive leadership. Alex Parker Returns's post on "contributions from restaurant checks for SVO needs" is an IO effort to promote public support for the war, while also subtly criticizing perceived resource allocation disparities, possibly aimed at internal dissent. Новости Москвы's video about S7 Airlines' new uniforms and TASS's report on Trump's TikTok statements are examples of RF IO attempting to project normalcy, economic stability, and engagement with international issues unrelated to the conflict, as a distraction. Colonelcassad posts a photo message quoting Trump saying it is "not the time to ask Putin for a ceasefire," which RF IO will amplify to project RF strength and an unwavering stance. Minister of Finance Siluanov's statement on an expected 12-13% key rate for the 2026 budget indicates continued focus on economic stability messaging. Операция Z amplifies a Business Insider report predicting a world crisis in 2026, which RF IO will likely leverage to portray Western economic instability. Colonelcassad posts videos and images from the "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition, promoting RF military heroism and displaying destroyed enemy equipment (unattributed to specific units). "Военкоры Русской Весны" (amplified by Операция Z) claims a former UAF officer who defected in 2014 is commanding the Russian offensive on Kupiansk, a narrative that RF will leverage to sow discord within UAF. RF IO is actively disseminating content (Операция Z) that claims "shooting and explosions" in Kyiv, aiming to amplify the psychological impact of the drone attack and generate panic or demoralization among the Ukrainian population. Рыбарь's recent message (🇺🇸🇻🇪Вы думаете, это реально оказалась по итогу лодка с 60-тью наркосами?) could be a diversionary tactic to draw attention away from the Kyiv attack and other RF military actions. ТАСС reports that the "Fair Russia — For Truth" party proposes to increase maternity capital for a second child to 1 million rubles and for a third to 1.5 million rubles. This is RF IO aimed at boosting internal morale and addressing demographic challenges, projecting stability and state care. Операция Z reports on a man discussing salary disparities between military and civilian personnel in Ukraine. This is an RF IO attempt to sow discord, highlight perceived economic hardship, and potentially portray military service as economically unviable or emotionally taxing in Ukraine. ТАСС reports Roskomnadzor (Russian federal service for supervision in the sphere of communications) blocked over 70,000 fraudulent SIM cards using internal systems of the domestic messenger Max. This is an RF IO effort to project effective internal security and control over digital communications, likely to reassure the public and potentially to signal greater control over information flow. TASS reports that individuals involved in the murder of General Kirillov have been accused of organizing a terrorist community. This is an RF IO message to project internal security and control. TASS reports an interview with Viktor Vodolatsky, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee for CIS Affairs, Eurasian Integration, and Relations with Compatriots, stating that the settlement process in Ukraine could drag on until Trump's victory over the "deep state." This is a significant RF IO effort to leverage perceived Western internal divisions and to project a long-term, politically-influenced conflict resolution timeline favorable to RF. The video also features nationalistic rhetoric, emphasizing Russian historical resilience and asserting confidence in Russia's eventual victory and reclaiming of historical lands. This reinforces a narrative of historical destiny and inevitable triumph. РБК-Україна posts a photo message stating Russia has appealed the ICAO decision regarding MH17 at the UN Court. This is a continuation of RF's legal and information warfare to deny responsibility. ТАСС posts a video claiming a Croatian citizen, who recently obtained Russian citizenship, surrendered to Russian FPV drone operators in Zaporizhzhia Oblast while serving with UAF. This is an RF IO attempt to demonstrate UAF disorganization and RF success. Рыбарь posts a daily situation summary, "Chronicle of the SMO for September 18," indicating continued structured RF information dissemination. Alex Parker Returns is circulating a video attempting to portray Putin's ultimate failure due to a failing army of convicts and alcoholics, a collapsing economy, and widespread destruction. This is an internal Russian opposition IO attempt, which UAF could leverage. (FACT, RUSSIAN INTERNAL IO, ANALYTICAL JUDGEMENT). Colonelcassad is using video of Ukrainian strikes against Russian territory, specifically the Salavat refinery, to frame Russia as a victim and justify further strikes on Ukraine (FACT, RF IO). Janus Putkonen posts a video showcasing reconstruction in Luhansk as evidence of successful integration and stability under Russian control, attempting to counter Western narratives of "criminal aggression." (FACT, RF IO). TASS reports RF MoD statements on advancing after liberating Serebryansky forestry, with UAF retreating and surrendering. (FACT, RF IO). WarGonzo posts on French intelligence presence in Transcaucasia, likely an IO attempt to highlight perceived Western interference in RF's sphere of influence. (FACT, RF IO). TASS reports the "liberation" of Muravka in DNR. (FACT, RF IO). TASS reports that an individual was fined 90k rubles for proposing Trump take the Urals, indicating internal suppression of dissent. (FACT, RF REPORT, IO). Новости Москвы proposes increasing VAT to 22% and lowering the exemption limit, signaling economic challenges but framing them as necessary adjustments. (FACT, RF REPORT, IO).
NEW: ТАСС (Maria Zakharova) is actively pushing the narrative that European accusations of RF UAV airspace violations are intended to disrupt conflict resolution in Ukraine. This is a classic deflection tactic, attempting to discredit valid concerns and shift blame. (FACT, RF IO) ТАСС also uses Zakharova to point to Washington Post's "double standards" in reporting about Charlie Kirk. (FACT, RF IO).
NEW: RF Telegram channels (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) are amplifying claims of UAF command failures, specifically alleging the commander of the 11th Border Detachment went on vacation during unit retreat on the Kharkiv direction. This is designed to demoralize UAF and sow distrust in leadership. (FACT, RF IO)
NEW: RF sources (Alex Parker Returns, Военкор Котенок) are showcasing North Korea's new "nuclear-capable" UAV. This is likely an IO effort to project the strength of RF's allies and potentially signal a broadened threat spectrum. (FACT, RF IO) ASTRA reports North Korea has tested Kumsong series tactical strike drones. This suggests RF allies are developing advanced drone capabilities. (FACT, RF IO).
NEW: TASS reports that Minister of Health Murashko stated doctor's salaries should be almost double the regional average. This is an internal RF IO effort to project state care for vital professions and improve morale, especially in a wartime economy. (FACT, RF IO)
NEW: TASS (Maria Zakharova) claims the "drone coalition" providing UAVs to Ukraine needs to see "crimes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces" striking civilian targets. This is a direct deflection and false equivalency attempt in response to UAF drone capabilities. (FACT, RF IO)
NEW: RF IO will leverage reports of children with cancer being transported within Russia to project state care and normalcy. (FACT, RF IO)
NEW: RF IO will promote discussions led by Sergey Lavrov at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Business Council to project normalcy and international engagement. (FACT, RF IO)
NEW: RF IO will promote civilian cultural events (e.g., giant vegetable festival in Moscow) to distract from the war and project normalcy. (FACT, RF IO) Kadyrov_95 promoting a cultural festival is an RF IO effort to project normalcy and regional pride. (FACT, RF IO).
NEW: RF IO will leverage the Pulkovo airport cyberattack to either blame UAF (unlikely without direct evidence, but possible implication) or to project RF's own vulnerability and need for robust cyber defenses. (FACT, RF REPORT, JUDGEMENT)
NEW: RF IO will exploit reports of Ukrainian refugees in Russia inhabiting the apartment of a "traitor" to create narratives of justice and internal stability. (FACT, RF IO)
NEW: RF IO will attempt to downplay the impact of sanctions by showcasing the availability of Western products like iPhones in Russia. (FACT, RF IO) TASS reporting on Russian cancer and obesity drugs being in demand abroad is an IO effort to project Russian medical and pharmaceutical strength. (FACT, RF IO).
NEW: RF IO will attempt to deflect from internal issues (e.g., military deaths caused by comrades) to maintain morale and cohesion. (FACT, RF IO)
NEW: RF IO will leverage reports about "reducing product packaging weight" as a sign of economic adaptation and efficiency rather than economic strain. (FACT, RF IO)
NEW: RF IO will focus on discrediting the EU's proposed "wall of drones" along its eastern border, attempting to portray it as an aggressive or ineffective measure. (FACT, RF IO via Басурин о главном)
NEW: RF IO will continue to emphasize perceived UAF military setbacks (e.g., Volchansk) to boost RF morale. (FACT, RF IO)
NEW: RF IO will use reports of their mine clearance robots to project technological advancement and commitment to demining. (FACT, RF REPORT/IO)
NEW: RF IO will leverage changes to the school curriculum (e.g., excluding "complex topics") to project an image of improving the education system, while subtly enabling easier information control. (FACT, RF IO) ASTRA reports a teacher in Yekaterinburg was convicted for a conflict with a soldier's son, indicating RF IO supporting military families and potentially suppressing dissent in education. (FACT, RF IO).
NEW: RF IO is actively promoting discussions about "citizen protection and control over housing and communal services tariffs" with high-level officials (Putin, Volodin) to project effective domestic governance and address public concerns, likely to boost internal morale and deflect from wartime issues. (FACT, RF REPORT)
NEW: RF IO will leverage the reported decline in Russia's food market (TASS) to highlight external pressures or as a justification for domestic policy, potentially attempting to frame it as a temporary difficulty. (FACT, RF REPORT)
NEW: RF IO will use car recalls (Geely Emgrand) as a routine administrative issue to project normalcy and effective consumer protection, deflecting from the war. (FACT, RF REPORT)
NEW: RF IO will frame its "harsh response" to European compensation structures as a strong, sovereign act against "Russophobia." (FACT, RF REPORT)
NEW: RF IO will use reports of resumed direct flights (Russia-Philippines) to project renewed international engagement and normalisation, despite ongoing conflict. (FACT, RF REPORT)
NEW: RF IO will attempt to downplay or deflect from the EU's planned ban on Russian LNG by 2027, portraying it as an economically irrational or politically motivated decision. (FACT, RF REPORT)
NEW: RF IO will amplify claims of success in settlements like Novoiivanivka (Два майора, Colonelcassad, Военкор Котенок, ТАСС, Kotsnews, MoD Russia) to project military progress and demoralize UAF. (FACT, RF CLAIM/REPORT).
NEW: RF IO is framing Hungary's recognition of Antifa as a terrorist organization as a positive development aligning with US policy, potentially to sow discord within the EU or highlight shared conservative values. (FACT, RF IO via TASS).
NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts an IO piece highlighting perceived disagreements between Trump and Starmer on Ukraine, Israel, and other issues, aiming to emphasize disunity among Western allies. (FACT, RF IO).
NEW: Старше Эдды posts an IO piece celebrating "Gladkov - 4 years in office," likely designed to project stability and effective regional governance amidst border attacks. (FACT, RF IO).
NEW: RF MOD is summarizing weekly progress of the "special military operation" with official photos and claims of strikes against UAF infrastructure and personnel. This is a consistent, high-level IO effort. (FACT, RF REPORT).
NEW: RF reports a former Kursk regional Duma deputy confessed to embezzling 86 million rubles, concluding a pre-trial agreement. This is internal RF IO to project anti-corruption efforts. (FACT, RF REPORT).
NEW: RF IO will exploit humanitarian aid to Ukraine (WFP) to claim UAF is misusing it or that it is being destroyed by RF, aiming to discredit both UAF and international aid efforts. (FACT, RF IO via Colonelcassad).
NEW: RF IO (Alex Parker Returns) will leverage comments from Israeli defense officials about placing their flag in Sanaa to implicitly justify RF's own aggressive actions in Ukraine by portraying such actions as "normal practice" by powerful states. (FACT, RF IO).
NEW: RF IO (MoD Russia) will frame UAF's denial of peace talks as Ukrainian intransigence, while projecting RF's willingness to negotiate humanitarian issues. (FACT, RF IO via Операция Z).
NEW: RF IO will continue to project a positive image of Chechen leadership and culture, as seen in the Kadyrov_95 video of the "Voice of the Caucasus" festival. (FACT, RF IO).
NEW: RF IO (ТАСС) is announcing a 19th package of sanctions against Russia, which they will likely frame as ineffective or unjust. (FACT, RF IO). STERNENKO also reports the 19th EU sanctions package. (FACT, UAF REPORT).
NEW: RF IO (Fighterbomber) is using video of missile guidance systems to project advanced military technology. (FACT, RF IO).
NEW: RF IO (ТАСС) is amplifying claims of UAF shooting its own soldiers attempting to surrender in Serebryansky forestry, aiming to demoralize UAF and portray RF as a humane alternative. (FACT, RF IO).
NEW: RF IO (Colonelcassad) is promoting official delegations from Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso visiting Crimea, aiming to project international recognition of Crimea and undermine Western narratives of isolation. (FACT, RF IO).
NEW: RF IO is attempting to create a narrative of a "catastrophe" for UAF in Kupiansk, using comments from "Bezuglaya" (Операция Z, Военкоры Русской Весны). (FACT, RF IO).
NEW: ASTRA reports a criminal case has been opened against an ex-deputy candidate from Komi for "calls for and justification of terrorism." This is internal RF IO to project continued suppression of dissent. (FACT, RF REPORT, IO).
[New] RF IO - Alleged UAF Officer's Trial: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video of an alleged UAF officer from the 44th Separate Mechanized Brigade facing trial for terrorism, claiming he crossed the border with weapons and intimidated civilians. This is a clear RF IO effort to demonize UAF personnel and justify RF border security measures. (FACT, RF IO)
[New] RF IO - Drone Interception Propaganda: Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны amplify video claiming UAF intercepted a "Geran" (Shahed) drone using a "dear American missile," subtly implying Western military aid is being expensively wasted or that UAF is reliant on foreign resources for defense. (FACT, RF IO)
[New] RF IO - Consumer Goods Normalization: Новости Москвы posts photo message claiming new iPhone 17s "scratch easily." This is an RF IO attempt to project normalcy by discussing Western consumer products available in Russia, implicitly downplaying the impact of sanctions. (FACT, RF IO)
[New] RF IO - Public Morale Boost (Military Veterans): WarGonzo posts video with veterans discussing combat experiences and casualties, aimed at glorifying military service and sacrifice, bolstering public morale. (FACT, RF IO)
[New] RF IO - Civilian Normalcy (Festival): ТАСС posts video of "Giant Vegetables" festival in "Aptekarsky Ogorod," a classic RF IO tactic to project normalcy and distract from the war. (FACT, RF IO)
[New] RF IO - Anti-Poland Sentiment: «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» posts a comedic video with the caption "Poland Last Days," suggesting Ukrainian citizens are leaving Poland. This is RF IO aimed at sowing discord between Ukraine and Poland, and portraying instability in Poland. (FACT, RF IO)
UAF Narratives: Emphasis on repelling RF assaults, successful deep strikes (Salavat refinery, Buk-M2), and the capture of RF personnel (425th Regiment "Skelya", "STRIKS" unit successes, border guard strikes, SBU agent detention, Kharkiv spotter detention, 35th Combined Arms Army casualties list) reinforces UAF's fighting capability and resolve. Zelenskyy's report of successful counter-offensive in Donetsk Oblast, including liberated territory and significant RF casualties, is a major boost to this narrative. The active public fundraising for advanced FPV drones ("best drones to work with") is a key part of this narrative. Reconnaissance personnel are highlighted as key to victory. The destroyed Poltava monument helicopter also serves as a symbol of resilience. UAF artillery displaying adaptability and continuous operation also reinforces this. President Zelenskyy's direct engagement with frontline units in Donetsk Oblast and the 82nd Air Assault Brigade command post further supports this narrative. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts reinforcing soldier morale. The 1st Assault Regiment's success near Dobropillya reinforces this. President Zelenskyy meeting with 79th Air Assault Brigade soldiers directly supports the narrative of resilience and success, highlighting specific unit involvement in current operations. The arrival of US PURL weapons is a strong narrative for continued international support and UAF capabilities. The Presidential Brigade of UAF posts a video showcasing night combat operations, emphasizing vigilance and effectiveness. Dnipropetrovsk ODA Head visiting emergency medical services championship highlights preparedness and resilience in the face of attacks. Zaporizhzhia ODA posts about evacuating young footballers, highlighting humanitarian efforts amidst conflict. "Підрозділ Shadow" posts video of successful drone strikes on RF shelters, reinforcing UAF precision strike capabilities. "БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС" posts video of the UAF 1st Assault Battalion holding its front line in Zaporizhzhia and destroying enemy forces with FPV drones, confirming UAF effectiveness and morale. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts video of the "STRIKS" unit's FPV drone successes on the Southern Slobozhansky direction, further confirming advanced tactical drone integration. Олександр Вілкул posts a briefing detailing the transfer of 10 DJI Matrice 4T quadcopters to the 77th Airmobile Brigade. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a photo message featuring a drone with the caption "Дальність? Вітер? Борт заармовано?" (Range? Wind? Борт armed?), indicating UAF's technical focus on drone operations. The "VARTOVI" unmanned systems battalion and 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" are actively demonstrating effective drone operations. Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement about Ukraine using 1000 interceptor drones daily indicates an immediate and significant scaling of UAF counter-UAV capabilities. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts multiple photo messages showcasing a tactical screen with telemetry data. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement that Ukraine will use 1000 interceptor drones per day in the near future, indicating a strategic shift towards large-scale counter-UAV operations. Ukraine is producing 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month and aims for 7 missiles daily by year-end, which will be leveraged to project growing domestic defense capabilities. Documenting casualties (Konstantinovka КАБ strike killing 5 civilians), damage to civilian infrastructure (Nizhyn, Zaporizhzhia), and war crimes allegations (exhumation videos, Donetsk displacement photos) aims to highlight RF atrocities and maintain international support. The opening of a memorial alley in Zaporizhzhia directly reinforces the narrative of sacrifice and remembrance. Demining efforts highlight UAF efforts to protect civilians. Dnipropetrovsk ODA reporting КАБ and drone strikes on civilian communities highlights RF aggression and humanitarian impact. Renewed air alerts in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast are implicitly used to highlight ongoing RF aggression against civilian areas. Reports on investigations into TCC officials and high-level fraud, recent corruption busts in Dnipropetrop- sk Oblast, the investigation into a pro-Russian judge, the detention of Novinsky (RPC curator), and the uncovering of an organized gambling network in Kyiv demonstrate commitment to transparency and good governance. Prosecution of an FSB officer for war crimes. Life sentence for an FSB officer who brutally treated civilians in Kherson Oblast demonstrates accountability for war crimes. Exposure of a human trafficking ring led by a PRC citizen. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the conviction of a "Rashist" who oversaw the "Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation" during the occupation of Kherson, which serves to project UAF's commitment to justice and accountability. Zelenskyy's statements confirming successful operations on RF territory and the impact on the RF fuel sector highlight UAF's growing asymmetrical capabilities. Highlighting security cooperation agreements with partners like Greece and the new drone cooperation agreement with Poland, including a joint operational group. New military aid from Ireland. Poland checking bomb shelters also indirectly signals allied seriousness about RF threats. РБК-Україна reporting Starmer's commitment to help Ukraine with Trump (photo message) promotes this. Trump's statements about "Putin letting me down" and hopes for "good news" on the Ukraine settlement are being used by UAF IO to highlight potential divisions in the West's perception of Putin's actions and a desire for peace on Ukraine's terms. Confirmation of US PURL weapons arrival is a strong narrative for continued international support and UAF capabilities. Operatyvny ZSU also reports the first US PURL weapon delivery. An EU Ambassador emphasizing the need for energy reforms in Ukraine (РБК-Україна) highlights continued international interest and support for Ukraine's long-term stability. UAF IO material depicting soldiers in combat and sacrifice, often leveraging emotional elements like a fallen soldier with a cat, reinforces patriotic narratives. Training initiatives for national resistance also foster patriotism. The Military Ombudsman law emphasizes caring for service members. The Coordination Headquarters provides critical support for families of POWs/MIA, bolstering morale. Active reporting on the return of bodies of fallen servicemen demonstrates transparency and care for personnel. Report on no elections in 2026 implies UAF IO to justify wartime measures. Appointment of Tetyana Chornovol as people's deputy highlights democratic processes. РБК-Україна posts a photo message featuring an analytical piece titled "War, Ukraine, the world. What to pay attention to today," which frames ongoing events from a Ukrainian perspective. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the EU will accelerate its rejection of Russian LNG due to pressure from Trump, positioning this as a positive outcome for Ukraine. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video with an inflammatory caption against the "second army," displaying strong anti-RF sentiment and bolstering UAF morale and resolve. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a video compilation documenting over 1300 combat engagements in the last seven days, with nearly a third on the Pokrovsk direction. РБК-Україна posts a photo message stating Zelenskyy invited Qatar to a summit in New York regarding the return of Ukrainian children, highlighting humanitarian diplomacy. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo message detailing the exposure of heads of military medical commissions in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts for bribery, promoting transparency and anti-corruption efforts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo message announcing the opening of a mental health center in Ternopil for military personnel and veterans, emphasizing support for service members. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts drone footage of Mykolaiv marines (VARTOVI battalion) successfully striking Russian vehicles, artillery, and infantry, demonstrating UAF effectiveness and boosting morale. "БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС" posts drone footage of the 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" destroying eight Russian assault troops on the Pokrovsk direction, further reinforcing the narrative of successful UAF operations and precision. "РБК-Україна" refutes claims of a "data leak" from e-Notariat, serving to reassure the public about data security and counter RF disinformation. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports RF is distributing "evacuation" leaflets in Velyka Pysarivka, Sumy Oblast, which UAF IO can frame as a sign of RF desperation or fear of UAF counter-action. "Оперативний ЗСУ" crowdfunding for the Pokrovsk direction highlights continued public support. "Colonelcassad" posts an image claiming Russian forces destroyed "Georgian mercenary Yura Kalandarishvili," which RF IO will use to discredit foreign fighters and claim successes against NATO-aligned personnel, but UAF IO can use it to highlight the international nature of the conflict and RF's willingness to target foreign fighters. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a humorous video with "victory music," likely a morale-boosting effort. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that a former Ukrainian brigadier general who betrayed Ukraine in 2014 is commanding the assault on Kupiansk, a narrative highlighting internal betrayal which UAF IO can use to emphasize the enemy's reliance on such figures. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна reporting on the "Gerbera" UAV fragment found on a Latvian beach highlights RF external aggression. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement about 1000 interceptor drones daily, boosting morale by projecting a strong, adaptive, and technologically advanced defense. UAF IO will likely frame the EU's accelerated rejection of Russian LNG (Bloomberg) as a victory for international pressure and a sign of weakening Russian economic power. UAF IO will counter RF amplification of Trump's "no ceasefire" statement by highlighting it as evidence that international leaders recognize Putin's unwillingness to genuinely negotiate, reinforcing UAF's resolve to continue fighting. РБК-Україна highlights Poland conducting large-scale checks of bomb shelters, framing it within the context of European readiness to RF threats. РБК-Україна shares a video of Donald Trump suggesting Europe taking action against China could accelerate the end of the war in Ukraine, which UAF IO will likely monitor for opportunities to reinforce narratives of international pressure on RF. Оперативний ЗСУ posts messages regarding Russia's challenge to the ICAO decision on MH17, framing it as Russia attempting to evade responsibility. РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Pavlohrad, and Николаевский Ванёк reports successful downing of drones. These immediate reports from UAF-aligned channels serve as direct IO reinforcing UAF's active defense and effectiveness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting that Ukraine produces 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month, aiming for 7 daily by year-end, which will be leveraged to project growing domestic defense capabilities. The UAF Air Force (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) reporting 20+ Shaheds from Chernihiv to Kyiv is a direct and immediate UAF IO response highlighting ongoing RF threats and UAF defensive vigilance. The Air Force of Ukraine (Повітряні Сили ЗС України) report on a group of UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast also serves as a critical, immediate UAF IO communication. РБК-Україна posts a video message reporting RF has recently built a new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast, 35 km from the Ukrainian border, attributed to OSINT-analyst Brady Africk. РБК-Україна also posts a tactical analysis of a satellite image of the Bryansk Oblast launch site. This new site likely implies an increased and more direct drone threat to northern Ukraine, particularly Kyiv and Sumy Oblasts. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posted a video claiming to show aerial combat on the Zaporizhzhia front, displaying FPV drone footage, telemetry data, and what appears to be a Ukrainian drone targeting Russian equipment. This visual confirmation reinforces UAF's active and successful use of drones in combat. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a BBC report on systematic torture of Ukrainian POWs in Russian prisons, linking to Russia's denunciation of the European Convention for the Prevention of Torture. (FACT, UAF IO).
NEW INTELLIGENCE:
RF Casualties: Ukrainian General Staff "Friday Mathematics" photo message (Два майора, RF source) likely reporting UAF claims of RF casualties. (FACT, RF IO)
UAF Drone Strike on RF Vehicle: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video showing a UAF drone strike on an RF vehicle on a rural road, with "BOMB ARMED" overlay. This directly reinforces UAF precision strike capabilities. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF Drone Strike/Artillery on RF Positions: Сливочный каприз (UAF-aligned) posts video of UAF drone-directed artillery strikes on RF positions in a wooded area near Konstantinovka - Oleksandro-Shultyno. This demonstrates continued effective UAF targeting. (FACT, UAF-ALIGNED REPORT)
UAF Counter-Offensive Operations (Pokrovsk): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts drone footage of 414th Brigade "Madjar's Birds" destroying eight RF assault troops near Pokrovsk. This highlights continued UAF offensive pressure and tactical success. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF Civilian Support: Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація posts on expanding cooperation with "Відповідальні громадяни" NGO for child protection and family support. This reinforces the narrative of state care and humanitarian efforts. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF Fundraising: STERNENKO reporting slightly lower donations indicates a potential need for increased public engagement or diversified funding efforts. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Zhytomyr Incident (Internal Affairs): The Prosecutor General's Office initiating an investigation into a prosecutor's death in Zhytomyr demonstrates UAF's commitment to rule of law and internal accountability. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF Public Trust: РБК-Україна posts poll data from KIIS on public trust in Zelenskyy in September, providing insights into public sentiment. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF Drone Procurement: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video discussing the ongoing procurement of drone detection equipment, highlighting UAF's proactive measures against drone threats and public support. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF Military Training: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts photos and a caption detailing first-year cadets at a Military Institute completing an obstacle course, the final stage of basic combined-arms training, highlighting continued training and personnel readiness. (FACT, UAF REPORT) A DSHV officer of the 132nd Separate Reconnaissance Battalion completed a 132 km run, demonstrating physical endurance and morale. (FACT, UAF REPORT).
UAF Diplomacy: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy may meet with Navrotsky for the first time in the coming days. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF Internal Corruption (Vinnytsia): The Vinnytsia Prosecutor's Office is countering schemes of budget fund, land, and communal property embezzlement, uncovering over 30 million UAH in damages. This reinforces UAF's commitment to transparency and anti-corruption efforts. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF Medical Success (Azovstal Defender): Оперативний ЗСУ highlights a successful surgery to remove a bullet from an Azovstal defender's heart. This reinforces resilience and successful medical care. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF FPV Drone Procurement (Public Support): STERNENKO reports that 370 FPV drones, including 40 Shahed interceptors, were procured in the last day through public donations. This demonstrates continued public engagement and UAF efforts to scale drone capabilities. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF Living Wage Review: РБК-Україна reports the Ministry of Finance is reviewing the living wage in Ukraine. This projects state care for its citizens during wartime. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF Heating Season Preparations: РБК-Україна posts that less than a month remains until the formal start of the heating season on October 15th. This highlights proactive planning and public awareness. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF Public Condemnation of RF Tactics: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video depicting RF soldiers driving over mines, with the caption criticizing Russian commanders for not caring about casualties. This is a clear UAF IO effort to demoralize RF forces and highlight their callous leadership. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF Commander's 100 Days: Николаевский Ванёк posts about the "100 days of the SBS Commander," likely a positive internal UAF message or recognition, aimed at boosting morale or public confidence. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF Public Support for Drones: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo highlighting the Border Guard Service joining the "Contract 18-24: Drones" project. This is a positive UAF IO message promoting recruitment for specialized drone units and public engagement. (FACT, UAF REPORT).
UAF Civilian Counter-Fraud: The Prosecutor General's Office reports exposing an international fraudulent call center in Ukraine. This reinforces UAF's commitment to internal security and combatting crime. (FACT, UAF REPORT).
UAF Strategic Air Defense Goal: Umierov states that Ukraine aims to expand air defense capabilities to counter up to 1000 RF attacks per day by year-end. (FACT, UAF REPORT). This is a critical strategic goal.
UAF BDA (Kursk Oblast): Sever.Realii reports Ukrainian military claims of a strike on a logistics hub of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade in Kursk Oblast. (FACT, UAF CLAIM).
UAF Anti-Drone Operations: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the 55th Separate Artillery Brigade in Zaporizhzhia Oblast destroyed 10 RF "Molniya" attack UAVs in one day, and nearly 100 in August. (FACT, UAF CLAIM).
[New] UAF Defense Technology Investment: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports four companies will invest over $100M USD in Ukrainian defense technologies as a result of Brave1 Defense Tech Valley 2025. This boosts UAF's narrative of innovation and self-reliance. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
[New] UAF Countering "Smiling Depression" (Psychological Welfare): РБК-Україна posts a photo message about "smiling depression," framing it in a context relevant to psychological welfare. While not directly military, this implies attention to the psychological well-being of the population, including military personnel. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
[New] Zaporizhzhia Humanitarian Efforts (Education): Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація posts about the "most important outcome of September - gratitude from children, parents, and teachers." This is a UAF IO effort to highlight normalcy and state care in the face of conflict, focusing on civilian well-being and education. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:
Capabilities (Confidence: HIGH): RF continues to demonstrate robust ground offensive capabilities on multiple axes, supported by significant artillery and glide bomb resources. They possess advanced FPV drone and reconnaissance UAV capabilities. RF maintains a strong strategic aviation and naval presence, conducting exercises like "Zapad-2025" and "Rubezh 2025," and "Laros 2025" with Laos. The capability to conduct deep strikes (Salavat refinery implies UAF capability) and high-volume drone attacks is confirmed. RF retains a sophisticated information warfare apparatus capable of multi-layered disinformation campaigns. Their ability to recruit and deploy foreign nationals (Cuban mercenaries, Croatian citizens) and controversial personnel (pardoned criminals) reflects ongoing efforts to augment manpower. RF is adapting its tactics, experimenting with UGVs and attempting urban infiltration. They possess advanced EW capabilities (Orlan-30 drone EW resistance). The reported construction of a new "Shahed" drone launch facility (Bryansk Oblast) indicates growing production capacity for UAVs and an advanced launch posture. RF continues to train allied forces, as evidenced by Wagner's training of Belarusian forces. RF leadership has demonstrated the capability to make high-level personnel changes, as seen with Kozak's release. RF has secured a commander for the Kupiansk offensive with prior UAF experience, potentially offering a tactical advantage. RF demonstrates a continued capability for high-intensity, multi-wave drone attacks targeting the capital, specifically Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast. RF continues to demonstrate naval construction capabilities, albeit with significant delays, as evidenced by the launch of the "Strelok" missile boat. This highlights a persistent, long-term effort to maintain and modernize its naval fleet. RF has the capability to intercept and destroy Ukrainian FPV drones, as demonstrated by the Воин DV video and the new Операция Z video from Zaporizhzhia. RF possesses the capability for extensive cyber and information control, as evidenced by Roskomnadzor blocking a large number of fraudulent SIM cards associated with messenger services. This indicates a sophisticated state-level capability to monitor and manipulate digital communication infrastructure. RF's Pacific Fleet demonstrated cruise missile launch capabilities from nuclear submarines, underscoring their strategic naval power projection. China's testing of armed robot dogs (Colonelcassad) demonstrates advancements in unmanned ground systems, which, while not RF capabilities, highlights global trends in military technology that RF may seek to emulate or counter. RF has a demonstrated capability to conduct multi-wave drone attacks, as seen in the overnight assault on Pavlohrad. RF is capable of sustained ground assaults, including the use of incendiary munitions against UAF infantry, as reported in Volchansk. RF has the capability to inflict civilian casualties through precision strikes, as evidenced by the attack on the Stepnohirsk community. RF has the capability to conduct targeted SOF operations, as claimed by Colonelcassad on the Vremevsky direction. RF has demonstrated the capability to develop and field sophisticated air defense systems, as evidenced by Israel's Iron Beam (reported by RF source) which may influence RF's own R&D. RF has delivered a batch of new "Pantsir-SMD" SAM systems, indicating continued modernization of air defense capabilities. RF has demonstrated surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities using drones, as seen with the "Rubikon" video. RF has shown the ability to inflict civilian casualties through drone strikes in Belgorod Oblast. UAF SSO has demonstrated deep strike capability against RF logistics hubs in Kursk Oblast. RF's 5th Guards Army "Vostok" Group drone operators are active on the Vremevsky direction, demonstrating continued drone ISR and strike capability. RF naval capabilities include long-range cruise missile launches from nuclear submarines, as demonstrated by the Pacific Fleet exercises in the Okhotsk Sea. (Басурин о главном) RF possesses foreign military technology analysis capabilities, as evidenced by reports on Japan's railgun test. (Colonelcassad) RF maintains control over its telecommunications to combat fraud, which could be extended for broader information control. (ТАСС) RF can provide drone air cover for assault groups to counter UAF heavy copters. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition) RF has the capability to rapidly deploy new anti-drone systems (Pantsir) to the front. (FACT, RF REPORT). RF has capabilities for internal suppression of dissent (fine for advocating Trump take Urals). (FACT, RF REPORT). RF demonstrates internal economic planning and adjustments (VAT increase, living wage review). (FACT, RF REPORT). RF MOD claims destruction of 85,000 UAF drones since SMO started, indicating high interception/EW capabilities, even if exaggerated. (FACT, RF REPORT). RF has capability to respond to internal sabotage attempts, as seen in the Novosibirsk cellular tower fire. (FACT, RF REPORT).
NEW: RF demonstrates continued capability for ISR and FPV drone strikes in the Zaporizhzhia sector. (FACT, UAF REPORT) Воин DV shows RF FPV drone strikes on a military vehicle and artillery strikes on a dugout, indicating persistent direct fire capabilities. (FACT, RF REPORT).
NEW: RF has demonstrated long-range UAV development or acquisition capabilities, as evidenced by the North Korean "nuclear-capable" drone. While not directly an RF capability, it signifies potential future procurement or technological influence. (FACT, RF IO) ASTRA reports North Korea has tested Kumsong series tactical strike drones. This suggests RF allies are developing advanced drone capabilities. (FACT, RF REPORT).
NEW: RF has a declared intention to develop and improve its electronic warfare (EW) systems and troops, indicating a long-term strategic focus on this domain. (FACT, RF REPORT)
NEW: RF maintains the capability to conduct cyberattacks against critical infrastructure, as demonstrated by the hack of Pulkovo airport's website. (FACT, RF REPORT)
NEW: RF is deploying advanced mine clearance robots, indicating a capability to address minefields and protect advancing forces. (FACT, RF REPORT)
NEW: RF maintains the capability to conduct offensive ground operations to seize and consolidate control of settlements, as evidenced by the liberation of Novoiivanivka and Muravka. (FACT, RF REPORT). MoD Russia officially confirms liberation of Muravka and Novoivanovka, indicating successful localized ground operations. (FACT, RF REPORT).
NEW: RF possesses robust internal security capabilities, as demonstrated by the interception of large-scale cocaine smuggling. (FACT, RF REPORT).
NEW: RF continues to conduct deep strikes using UAVs against Ukrainian territory, resulting in civilian casualties, as seen in the Khomutovsky District of Kursk Oblast. (FACT, RF REPORT).
NEW: RF has the capability to deny successful UAF deep strikes, as demonstrated by their IO about strikes in Kyiv and Pavlohrad. (FACT, RF CLAIM, ANALYTICAL JUDGEMENT).
NEW: RF possesses and utilizes advanced missile guidance technology, as seen in the X-29T video. (FACT, RF REPORT).
[New] RF MLRS Capabilities: The WarGonzo video confirms RF's continued capability to employ BM-21 Grad MLRS for indirect fire support, likely targeting UAF positions or areas of concentration. (FACT, RF REPORT)
[New] RF Border Security and Counter-Terrorism Capabilities: The detention of an alleged UAF officer in Kursk Oblast by RF military police demonstrates RF's capability to conduct border security operations and perceived counter-terrorism actions on its territory. The video implies a capability to investigate and prosecute alleged infiltrators. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
[New] RF Naval Products Export Impact: The reported 18% drop in naval product export from RF indicates that UAF's deep strikes on refineries are having a tangible, albeit indirect, economic impact on RF's ability to export refined products. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Intentions (Confidence: HIGH): RF intends to maintain offensive pressure on key axes (Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia) to achieve territorial gains and attrit UAF forces. They aim to degrade Ukrainian critical infrastructure (energy, railways) through persistent aerial attacks. RF intends to continue robust information warfare to sow discord, demoralize UAF, and undermine international support. They will leverage geopolitical events and Western internal divisions for IO. RF also intends to protect its internal security and project an strong image of stability. The continuation of large-scale military exercises (Zapad-2025, Laros 2025) indicates intent for sustained long-term military readiness and projection of power. RF intends to continue targeting UAF heavy artillery, as evidenced by the Konstantinovka M109A5 strike. RF appears to be increasing pressure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, as claimed by Воин DV. RF intends to project internal unity and strong leadership (MoD Russia's "Top News Today"). Russia's challenge to the ICAO decision on MH17 at the ICJ indicates an intention to continue challenging international legal frameworks and deny accountability. The "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition indicates an intent to sustain public support and morale for the conflict. RF's new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast signals an intention to increase aerial pressure on northern Ukraine. RF will continue to leverage historical narratives, as reported in the new message "Two majors", to promote national unity and justify current actions. RF intends to sustain and potentially escalate aerial pressure on Kyiv, likely as a retaliatory measure for the Salavat deep strike, and to inflict psychological impact and further degrade air defense systems. The ongoing drone attack on Kyiv confirms this immediate intention. RF intends to maintain its long-term naval modernization program (Project 12418 missile boats). RF intends to circumvent Western financial sanctions through cooperation with China (independent depository). RF will continue to leverage international forums and IO (IAEA abstentions, MI6 darknet portal, derisive comments about Kyiv attacks) to project international support, demonize Western intelligence, and demoralize Ukrainians. RF intends to develop and implement social support programs (e.g., increased maternity capital) to project state care and domestic stability, aiming to bolster long-term internal stability amidst the conflict. RF intends to maintain its counter-UAV capabilities and operations against Ukrainian drones. RF intends to maintain and enhance its control over the domestic information environment and communications, likely to counter internal dissent and foreign influence, as indicated by Roskomnadror's actions. RF intends to continue pursuing and prosecuting individuals it deems responsible for internal "terrorist" acts, as seen in the General Kirillov murder case. RF intends to shape international perceptions of the conflict's duration and resolution, leveraging Western political dynamics, as expressed in the Vodolatsky interview. RF intends to continue challenging international legal decisions, as seen in their appeal against the MH17 ruling at the UN Court. RF intends to continue showcasing its strategic naval and missile capabilities through exercises. RF's daily "Chronicle of the SMO" by Рыбарь confirms their intention to maintain a consistent narrative regarding ongoing operations. RF intends to leverage any perceived vulnerabilities in the Netherlands' refugee policy to further its IO goals, portraying a lack of Western unity or support for Ukraine. RF intends to frame NATO as an aggressor, as seen in the Ambassador's comments regarding Bornholm. RF intends to exploit the perception of UAF abandoning NATO weapons to demoralize UAF forces and boost RF morale. RF intends to demonstrate control over annexed territories and project defensive capability, as seen in the RF Air Defense reports from Crimea. RF intends to maintain a consistent narrative of providing essential supplies to its frontline units, as seen in the "Военкоры Русской Весны" videos. RF intends to engage in psychological warfare and attrition against UAF personnel by deploying booby traps, as described by the RF demining group commander. RF intends to continue using high-volume drone attacks, as demonstrated by the overnight assault on Pavlohrad, to overwhelm UAF air defenses and strike infrastructure. RF intends to press ground assaults in Volchansk, likely seeking to attrit UAF forces and secure localized gains, employing incendiary munitions. RF intends to inflict civilian casualties through precision strikes, as evidenced by the attack on the Stepnohirsk community. RF intends to use social welfare policies (e.g., family capital) to bolster domestic support and project state care. RF intends to leverage the US veto on the Gaza ceasefire to portray US diplomatic isolation and hypocrisy. RF intends to showcase its military industrial complex capabilities by announcing new SAM system deliveries. RF intends to maintain the current regulatory framework for cryptocurrency mining, signaling a degree of internal economic stability. RF intends to control information access during mobile network restrictions, reinforcing state control and security. RF intends to project air superiority through drone operations, as claimed by "Rubikon." RF intends to portray UAF as aggressive by reporting civilian casualties from drone strikes in Belgorod. RF intends to monitor and comment on broader geopolitical events, such as a possible US invasion of Venezuela, to demonstrate its global awareness and influence. RF intends to encircle Siversk by conducting battles in Vyemka and Pereyizne. RF intends to continue offensive operations in Novopetrovske (Ternove) area despite encountering heavy UAF defenses, indicating persistence in achieving territorial gains. RF intends to leverage foreign military technology developments (Japan's railgun test) for strategic advantage in its military-industrial complex and future warfare planning. (Colonelcassad) RF intends to further control domestic information, as seen by potential restrictions on roaming SIM cards. (ТАСС) RF intends to promote traditional social values through policy proposals like banning contraceptives for married couples. (Новости Москвы) RF intends to exploit ongoing combat in Novoyekonomichne, Donetsk Oblast, to project military progress. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦) RF intends to continue discussions and planning for additional EU sanctions packages. (ТАСС) RF intends to project internal security success (e.g., cocaine interception). (ТАСС) RF intends to use internal social control mechanisms (e.g., fines for 'insulting' words). (Новости Москвы) RF intends to use "gamification" narratives for military actions (БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС) for internal consumption. (Оперативний ЗСУ) RF intends to project military control over UAF logistics around Krasnoarmeysk. (ТАСС) RF intends to strike Ukrainian WPK facilities, as claimed in Pavlohrad. (Военкор Котенок) RF intends to use the narrative of "liberated" territories like Luhansk to project stability and success under Russian influence. (FACT, RF IO). RF intends to use military action (advances, destruction of UAF forces) as a primary means to achieve objectives. (FACT, RF REPORT). RF intends to counter perceived Western intelligence expansion (French intelligence in Transcaucasia). (FACT, RF IO). RF intends to suppress internal dissent (fining citizens for anti-war statements). (FACT, RF REPORT). RF MOD statements indicate an intention to quantify and boast about UAF drone losses to project air superiority. (FACT, RF REPORT). RF intends to continue diplomatic efforts, as evidenced by the planned Lavrov-Rubio meeting. (FACT, RF REPORT). RF intends to maintain internal stability and suppress perceived threats, as seen in the criminal case against an ex-deputy candidate for "terrorism" charges. (FACT, RF REPORT).
NEW: RF intends to deny violations of European airspace by its UAVs, using this as an IO tactic to discredit accusations and frame efforts to hold them accountable as attempts to disrupt peace. (FACT, RF IO)
NEW: RF intends to highlight UAF command failures, as seen in the claim about the 11th Border Detachment commander, to demoralize UAF and undermine trust in its leadership. (FACT, RF IO)
NEW: RF intends to project an image of internal stability and care for its populace through statements about improving doctors' salaries and preventing electricity deficits. (FACT, RF REPORT/IO)
NEW: RF will leverage reports of children with cancer being transported within Russia to project state care and normalcy. (FACT, RF IO)
NEW: RF intends to project normalcy and international engagement through high-level diplomatic discussions (Lavrov). (FACT, RF IO)
NEW: RF intends to deflect from the war and project normalcy through promoting civilian cultural events. (FACT, RF IO)
NEW: RF intends to downplay the impact of sanctions by showcasing the availability of Western consumer goods in Russia. (FACT, RF IO)
NEW: RF intends to continue efforts to develop and improve its electronic warfare capabilities. (FACT, RF REPORT)
NEW: RF intends to use cyberattacks against critical infrastructure and potentially military targets. (FACT, RF REPORT)
NEW: RF intends to address minefield challenges through the deployment of specialized mine clearance robots. (FACT, RF REPORT).
NEW: RF intends to maintain ground offensive pressure in key areas, as evidenced by advances in Melovoye (Kharkiv Oblast). (FACT, RF CLAIM, ANALYTICAL JUDGMENT).
NEW: RF intends to counter any UAF gains by denying their success and claiming RF victories in contested areas, as seen in the IO regarding Kyiv and Pavlohrad strikes. (FACT, RF CLAIM, ANALYTICAL JUDGEMENT).
NEW: RF intends to pursue and prosecute individuals suspected of aiding UAF within Russia, projecting internal security. (FACT, RF REPORT). This is exemplified by the detention in Novosibirsk for setting fire to a cellular tower. (FACT, RF REPORT).
NEW: RF intends to control the flow of information and maintain internal security through measures like restricting roaming SIM cards. (FACT, RF REPORT).
NEW: RF intends to communicate its claims of successful operations against UAF power, fuel, and transport infrastructure, as well as military targets. (FACT, RF REPORT).
NEW: RF intends to frame the European Commission's 19th sanctions package as a sign of "military hysteria" or an attempt to "launder money." (FACT, RF IO via Басурин о главном).
NEW: RF intends to continue targeting UAF positions to disrupt rotations, as seen in Krasnoarmeysk direction. (FACT, RF REPORT).
NEW: RF intends to utilize heavy flamethrower systems like TOS-1A for area denial and anti-personnel strikes. (FACT, RF REPORT).
[New] RF Intent to Continue MLRS Employment: The WarGonzo video reinforces RF's intent to continue using BM-21 Grad MLRS for fire support in current and future operations. (FACT, RF REPORT)
[New] RF Intent to Conduct Counter-Terrorism Operations: The RF military police detention of an alleged UAF officer in Kursk Oblast demonstrates RF's intent to conduct counter-terrorism operations and maintain strict border control. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
[New] RF Intent to Denigrate UAF Personnel: The narrative around the alleged UAF officer's trial is intended to denigrate UAF personnel and legitimize RF actions. (FACT, RF IO)
[New] RF Intent to Project Economic Normalcy: RF's continued focus on consumer products like iPhones, even with minor criticisms, is intended to project economic normalcy despite sanctions. (FACT, RF IO)
[New] RF Intent to Boost Public Morale: The WarGonzo video with veterans and the TASS festival coverage are intended to boost public morale and distract from the war's negative impacts. (FACT, RF IO)
[New] RF Intent to Sow Disunity with Poland: The "Poland Last Days" video aims to create a wedge between Ukraine and Poland and suggest instability within Poland. (FACT, RF IO)
Courses of Action (Confidence: HIGH):
Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (Confidence: HIGH):
Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (Confidence: HIGH):
Resource Requirements and Constraints (Confidence: MEDIUM):
Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (Confidence: HIGH):
Public Sentiment and Morale Factors (Confidence: MEDIUM):
International Support and Diplomatic Developments (Confidence: HIGH):
Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH):
Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: MEDIUM):
Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:
//END REPORT//
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