Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 190903Z SEP 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current operational picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (Confidence: HIGH)

RF forces maintain multi-axis pressure across the Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia axes. Heavy reciprocal battles continue in Sumy Oblast. RF claims unverified advances in Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, and occupation of the medical college area in Kupiansk, with military control and fortifications on the Velikoburlukskoye direction. RF claims a 5km advance on the Gulyaipole direction, entering Novoivanivka, and new positions south of Novoivanivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF claims full control of Serebryansky forestry, representing a significant territorial gain on the Lyman direction, if verified. RF claims UAF "complains" about RF advances in Kupiansk, with RF sources amplifying reports of "chaos and disorganization" and a "failed defense." RF footage displays dynamic combat engagements in a forest environment, explosions, and smoke. Kotsnews posts video claiming "liberation of Novonikolaevka" with Russian assault troops detailing mine clearing. Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming soldiers of the 270th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Akhmat-Caucasus" destroyed enemy positions in Malaya Tokmachka area. ТАСС posts video claiming Tornado-S MLRS crews destroyed three temporary deployment points of a UAF brigade in Konstantinovka. Colonelcassad reports a cluster Iskander strike on a UAF company tactical group near Druzhkivka. Воин DV posts video detailing renewed artillery strikes and attacks on enemy personnel in the Polozhskoye direction by the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo message showing a tactical map of a contested area, suggesting ongoing ground combat and RF claims of UAF setbacks in Kupiansk. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports over 80 combat engagements in the last 24 hours. The Kramatorsk direction saw 15 RF assaults near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Mykolayivka, Stupochky, Bila Hora, and Andriivka, with UAF repelling 12. The Pokrovsk direction remains the hottest, with 28 assaults near Volodymyrivka, Zapovidne, Novoekonomichne, Shevchenko, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne, Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Vilne, Chervonyi Lyman, Myrnohrad, Rodynske, Promin, Zvirove, Molodetske, Novopidhorodne, Novopavlivka, and Filiya, with 20 repelled. On the Novopavlivka direction, 26 assaults were near Yalta, Shevchenko, Komyshuvakha, Vorone, Ternove, Novoivanivka, Filiya, Ivanivka, Iskra, Sichneve, Olhivske, and Poltavka, with 21 repelled. On the Orikhiv direction, 7 assaults occurred near Kamyanske and towards Novodanylivka, with 6 repelled. On the Kherson direction, UAF repelled 4 Russian army assaults. On the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions, UAF repelled 7 Russian army assaults. This indicates sustained and heavy RF pressure across all key axes, particularly Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka. UAF has confirmed the liberation of Pankivka, Donetsk Oblast, and Zarichne. UAF reports eliminating a Russian breakthrough near Pokrovsk with ongoing cleanup operations. Drone footage from the 'Battle for Pokrovsk,' displays successful strikes against RF targets. UAF "Pion" artillery is operating on the Donetsk direction. FPV drone footage of night combat operations by the 6th Battalion of the Azov Brigade shows thermal imagery of strikes. UAF forces have flooded a gas pipe in Kupiansk, attempting to thwart RF infiltration, and deny RF claims of fighting in the city center. UAF 15th Separate Artillery Reconnaissance Brigade "Black Forest" successfully destroyed an RF Buk-M2 SAM system (video confirmed). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts video claiming six accurate strikes by the "STRIKS" unit on the Southern Slobozhansky direction. Олександр Вілкул posts photo messages of the 77th Airmobile Brigade on the front. Оперативний ЗСУ posts drone footage showing Ukrainian forces identifying and striking a Russian artillery position and communication antenna in Kharkiv Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС highlights how the 1st Assault Regiment (1-й ОШП) "cut the pincers" of Russians near Dobropillya. President Zelenskyy met with soldiers of the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade participating in the defense of Myrnohrad and the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation, reporting 160 sq km liberated and 7 settlements freed. UAF's "Shadow" unit posts video of successful drone strikes on RF shelters ("укриттям"), indicating continued precision targeting of enemy fortifications. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts video showing the UAF 1st Assault Battalion holding its front line in Zaporizhzhia, destroying enemy forces "far from the line of contact" using FPV drones, indicating robust long-range defensive capabilities. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts video of "STRIKS" unit FPV drone operators from the 4th Border Guard Detachment destroying two enemy positions, a shelter, a BMP, and two vehicles (one laden with ammunition) on the Southern Slobozhansky direction. This highlights continued UAF tactical successes using FPV drones. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts photos of President Zelenskyy meeting with the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade at their command post, acknowledging their participation in the defense of Mirnohrad and the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video depicting drone footage of Ukrainian military positions, specifically trenches, being targeted and struck by munitions, with a logo of what appears to be a Ukrainian military insignia and a unit emblem with drones and an eagle, suggesting successful strikes against enemy positions. The caption reads "Окупантам не сховатися" (Occupiers cannot hide). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a video compilation showing intense combat engagements from a drone's perspective on the Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Kupiansk directions, documenting numerous RF artillery strikes and personnel losses. Two Ukrainian reconnaissance companies, including the "VARTOVI" unmanned systems battalion of Mykolaiv marines, are actively engaging Russian military assets, targeting vehicle convoys, artillery, and infantry positions. UAF drone operators from the 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" successfully destroyed eight Russian assault troops on the Pokrovsk direction. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides an operational update for 22:00, 18.09.2025, confirming UAF repelled the majority of RF assaults across multiple axes, indicating successful defensive operations despite heavy pressure. ТАСС reports RF Deputy Commander of a VDV assault battalion claims UAF forces are abandoning NATO weapons during retreat in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (UNVERIFIED RF IO) Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posted a video claiming to show aerial combat on the Zaporizhzhia front, displaying FPV drone footage, telemetry data, and what appears to be a Ukrainian drone targeting Russian equipment. This indicates continued intense drone warfare.

NEW INTELLIGENCE:

• Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast: RF launches КАБ towards Kupiansk community. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Novomykolaivka, Kharkiv Oblast: RF launches КАБ towards Novomykolaivka, Kharkiv Oblast. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Konstantinovka - Oleksandro-Shultyno (Donetsk Oblast): Map imagery showing contested area and troop dispositions, indicating ongoing ground combat. (FACT, UAF-aligned report)
• Tendra Spit (Kherson Oblast): UAF GUR "Viking" unit landed and mined Tendra Spit overnight. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Prymorske: An RF FPV drone attack resulted in one UAF casualty. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: An RF reconnaissance UAV is detected near Zaporizhzhia and in the northeast of the oblast, with UAF countermeasures underway. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Kupiansk Direction (Kharkiv Oblast): Thermal drone footage from an RF source (Colonelcassad) shows UAF positions (dugouts/foxholes) in a forested area, suggesting continued close-quarters reconnaissance and targeting by RF. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• Kupiansk Area: RF source map shows ongoing territorial control changes, particularly around the city, confirming continued RF pressure. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• Serebryansky Forestry: RF "Военкоры Русской Весны" (amplified by Операция Z) posts video claiming initial footage from the "liberated" Serebryansky forestry, showing combat operations in a heavily forested, entrenched environment. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• Novoiivanivka (Southern Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia): Воин DV posts drone footage of Novoiivanivka with Russian flags on structures, claiming the settlement is cleared by the "Vostok" group. (FACT, RF CLAIM). Confirmed by "Два майора" as taken by 394th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment of 127th Division.
• Zarichne (Krasnolimanskoe Direction): RF map (Z комитет + карта СВО) shows Zarichne as a contested area with both UAF and RF forces present, RF claims advancement in the area. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• Volchansk (Kharkiv Oblast): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims one UAF battalion in eastern Volchansk has lost combat effectiveness. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• Kozachi Laheri (Kherson Oblast): RF forces conducted raids on houses and shot three people around midnight on 18.09.2025 in occupied Kozachi Laheri. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Krasnodar Airport: The first regular flight from Pulkovo to Krasnodar since 2022 has been completed following the reopening of Pashkovsky airport. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• Pulkovo Airport Website: The website for Pulkovo Airport in St. Petersburg has been hacked. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF 47th Brigade Command Change: The commander of the UAF 47th Brigade has been replaced by 26-year-old Lieutenant Colonel Maksym Danylschuk. (FACT, RF CLAIM, LIKELY ACCURATE)
• Novoiivanivka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Russian 394th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment, 127th Division, 5th Combined Arms Army, "Vostok" Group, claims control of Novoiivanivka and is consolidating positions for further advance. (FACT, RF CLAIM)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (Confidence: HIGH)

Current conditions are generally clear and favorable for air operations across most of Ukraine. A cold front is moving into the Carpathians with temperatures dropping to -2°C, and snow is possible soon. The strongest geomagnetic storm in 3 months (G3) continues to impact satellite communications and GPS for both sides.

RF launched three S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles, one Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile, and 75 drones (over 40 of them Shaheds) overnight against Ukraine. 48 RF UAVs were shot down/suppressed. Persistent RF UAV threats affect Sumy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Odesa, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Poltava Oblasts. Zaporizhzhia experienced at least TEN strikes, killing one person and injuring 20, causing power outages. Sumy Oblast suffered two drone impacts, causing power outages and a warehouse fire. RF dropped three FAB-250 glide bombs on Kramatorsk, injuring 19. UAF Air Force warns of guided aerial bomb launches on Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Nizhyn suffered the "most massive strike from the beginning of the war" with dozens of drones, damaging critical infrastructure. Explosions confirmed in Sumy. Yampil is reported to be burning. Large fire at Kyiv logistics center liquidated after repeated morning attacks. UAF Air Force warns of several UAV groups past Derhachi, heading towards Kharkiv. RF sources report "powerful explosions in Balakliia (Kharkiv Oblast)" with videos of large smoke plumes. New RF drone group detections for Chernihiv Oblast towards Baturyn and renewed explosions in Kropyvnytskyi. Critical infrastructure hit by RF UAVs in Cherkasy Oblast. Large fire engulfing a multi-story building in Kyiv reported. КАБы on Kherson, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts. Five strong explosions in Petrovsky district of Donetsk. RF drone strike on a gas station in Poltava district, causing a fire and one casualty. UAF Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs (КАБ) on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. РБК-Україна reports Russians struck a residential area of Konstantinovka with a guided aerial bomb (КАБ), killing 5 people. Air Force of Ukraine reports tactical aviation activity in the northeast direction, specifically launching guided aerial bombs (КАБ) towards Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБы ➡️ на Донеччину! (Guided aerial bombs towards Donetsk Oblast!). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district). Николаевский Ванёк reports three UAVs approaching Pavlohrad, and subsequent defensive actions and successful downing of UAVs in Pavlohrad. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a person was injured in Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast, due to a drone attack and falling debris. Three women were injured in Vozdvyzhivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, due to an enemy attack, further increasing civilian casualties. The Kyiv City Military Administration (КМВА) has reported the all-clear for Kyiv, while the subway restores normal operations.

NEW INTELLIGENCE:

• Overnight Drone Interceptions (UAF Report): UAF Air Force reports 71 RF UAVs shot down or suppressed overnight. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Chernihiv Oblast: Multiple groups of RF attack UAVs detected heading towards Chernihiv. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Konotop (Sumy Oblast): RF sources claim "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes in Konotop. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• Donetsk Oblast: UAF Air Force warns of КАБ launches towards Donetsk Oblast. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district): UAF Air Force warns of aerial attack means (КАБ) launched in the region. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Sumy Oblast: UAF Air Force reports an RF UAV approaching Sumy, with countermeasures underway. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Belgorod Oblast: Sever.Realii reports two people injured after drone attacks in Belgorod Oblast. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• Poltava Oblast: UAF Air Force reports an RF UAV in Poltava district. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Air Alert (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): An air raid alert has been declared in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Guided Aerial Bombs (Donetsk Oblast): UAF Air Force warns of КАБ launches towards Donetsk Oblast. (FACT, UAF REPORT)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (Confidence: HIGH)

RF Forces:

• Ground: Multi-axis offensives continue with claims of advances in Krasnoarmeysk-Dmitrov, "grinding down" elite UAF units on Dobropillya direction, and entering Konstantinovka city limits. RF claims offensive development at the junction of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with claims of "liberating" Olhivske and Sosnovka. "Kurier" and "Fagot" UGVs deployed. Heavy reciprocal battles in Sumy Oblast. FAB strikes continue in Kalinovsky, targeting UAF logistics. Assault on Yampil has started, utilizing civilian clothing for disguise and human shields. North Korean 107-mm Type1963 MLRS observed. RF expanding bridgehead in Volchansk. RF Naval Infantry advancing in Sumy Oblast. RF Army actively advancing in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF detailing movements and territorial control changes in Zaporizhzhia (Stepnohirsk, Orikhiv, Tokmak). RF has taken fire control of approximately 5 km of H-26 highway near Stepova Novoselivka, leading to Kupiansk. RF continues to advance on Konstantinovka direction, with "pincers closing." Putin observed "Zapad-2025" exercises. RF claims full control of Serebryansky forestry. VDV performing parachute and armored vehicle air-dropping operations during "Zapad-2025." Tactical map claiming RF is developing an offensive at the junction of DPR, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. RF claims "Anwar" special forces destroyed a Swedish "S-tank" while supporting an offensive towards Sumy (highly unusual, likely IO). Multiple videos claiming the liberation of Novopetrovskoye. RF claims UAF attacks on DPR border led to increased RF strikes on enemy rear. RF claims destruction of a Paladin SAU, and successful destruction of UAF attempts to cross Dnieper. Video of a captured Russian soldier, Mikhail Stepanov, describing harsh combat conditions, coercive tactics, and low morale. Forced evacuation from 18 settlements in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. "Akhmat" SpN Regiment FPV drone reconnaissance on Sumy direction. Duma committee approved veteran status for volunteers in assault units. RF claims "Sparta" unit destroyed a UAF UAV control post. RF and UAF-affiliated sources amplify Deep State's report that RF forces are entering and consolidating in residential areas of Kupiansk. The captured RF soldier claims his unit used a gas pipe to infiltrate Kupiansk. RF military expert claims UAF created powerful underground fortifications in residential Konstantinovka. RF claims an offensive behind Chasiv Yar, with airborne forces destroying enemy defenses. Special incendiary detachment of 16th Guards NBC Protection Brigade, "Vostok" Group, using thermobaric munitions on Vremevskoye direction. MoD Russia posts video features Russian soldiers discussing UAV attacks, small group infiltrations by AFU, and the establishment of a buffer zone. MoD Russia claim of destroying a 3-person Ukrainian DRG attempting to infiltrate Kursk Oblast near Tetkino. Colonelcassad posts drone footage claiming to show a destroyed UAF M1A1 Abrams tank on the Sumy front (unverified). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claims "Anwar" special forces hit a rare Swedish Strv 103 tank in the Sumy border region (unverified). MoD Russia posts video showcasing RF MLRS firing rounds. Colonelcassad claims RF forces successfully crossed the Volchya River and are advancing in eastern Ivanovka. MoD Russia posts video claiming a T-80BVM tank crew destroyed an enemy stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a message: "Family, friends, brothers and sisters, we urgently need drones🚀." Старше Эдды claims RF forces have taken control of the outskirts of Kupiansk. Операция Z amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" video claiming RF VDV are destroying UAF positions and advancing on the Sumy front. Colonelcassad posts map claiming assault groups occupied new positions south of Novoivanivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of captured Russian soldiers in Kupiansk detailing orders to kill Ukrainian men and infiltration via a gas pipe. ТАСС reports Russian sergeant Dinir Shavaleev broke into an enemy dugout alone and eliminated two Ukrainian soldiers. Два майора posts video regarding drone repair and creation for marine infantry on Sumy direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video of RF soldiers evacuating a heavy, injured soldier. MoD Russia posts video of T-72B3M tanks neutralizing UAF positions in the LPR. Colonelcassad posts new map updates detailing RF ground advances over the past 24 hours, particularly around Kupiansk. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Kotsnews post drone footage of artillery strikes by "Vostok" Group on UAF fortified positions near Gavrilovka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк claims 18 officers of the operational staff of the RF 35th Combined Arms Army were killed in a sabotage operation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (unverified by UAF, but casualty list adds credibility). «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» posts thermal and daylight drone footage from the Sumy direction showing interception of an enemy drone and strike on an "enemy antenna." MoD Russia posts a photo message summarizing the progress of the special military operation as of 18 September 2025. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a video showing a Russian T-72 variant tank maneuvering and firing. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming RF forces eliminated a UAF platoon in Konstantinovka. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video of Solovyov proposing replacing Russian border guards with North Koreans. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of Ukrainian border guards striking three enemy vehicles and manpower in the Southern direction. Janus Putkonen posts an image with the caption "Army Corps Zapad-2025 ended and training troops are moving to real operations against Kyiv forces." Alex Parker Returns posts video about high financial incentives for contract service in Moscow (6M rubles annually, 3.1M lump sum, 260k salary, 10M debt forgiveness). MoD Russia posts video showing signal units of the Tsentr Group of Forces deploying a secured radio network between forward units and a command post in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Воин DV posts video detailing the situation on the Southern Donetsk direction, specifically mentioning fighting in Novoivanovka, and shows drone footage of artillery strikes. Рыбарь posts a tactical map overlay for "fights in the agglomeration." Операция Z amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" claiming RF Army is breaking through to Zaporizhzhia via Kamyanske and Plavni, citing Ukrainian speaker Voloshyn. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video quoting Putin on over 700,000 Russian military personnel on the line of contact. Воин DV posts photos of Russian tank brigade soldiers from Buryatia being awarded. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video with captured RF soldiers discussing murder charges. Colonelcassad reports a cluster Iskander strike on a UAF company tactical group near Druzhkivka. "Два майора" posts a message from Putin to State Duma leaders, emphasizing the government's reliance on their support, indicating an ongoing effort to maintain political cohesion for the war. "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" posts a photo message claiming a person accused of raping a minor stepdaughter was released to fight in the war, indicating continued controversial recruitment practices. "Николаевский Ванёк" posts an exclusive video of a captured Cuban national from the 81st Airmobile Brigade, providing HUMINT on RF recruitment of foreign nationals and their combat experience. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming strikes on UAF positions on the Donetsk direction. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition amplifies Putin's statement that the "combined grouping of Russian forces in the SMO zone is over 700,000 servicemen," claiming "our fighters have no equals in the world." Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming "Akhmat" special forces successfully used a KVN drone to strike a UAF pickup truck with infantry in a wooded area on the Kharkiv direction, claiming "3 dead fighters." Игорь Артамонов posts a photo message highlighting a father of three, a Cossack and patriot, serving as a volunteer on the front since 2022, indicating continued RF volunteer recruitment and morale boosting. Воин DV posts video of drone operators from the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade conducting effective strikes against enemy manpower in the Polozhskoye direction, demonstrating continued offensive operations. Два майора posts a video compilation, including what appears to be a Russian tank being destroyed by UAF forces, suggesting ongoing tactical losses for RF. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo of a tactical map claiming a critical situation in Kupiansk, implying potential RF advances or UAF tactical setbacks in the area. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" states that their unit is experiencing a "difficult period," indicating possible operational strain. Russian forces are distributing leaflets in Velyka Pysarivka, Sumy Oblast, calling for "evacuation." "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a video showing Russian military personnel loading crates with Cyrillic text onto a vehicle, indicating routine logistical operations. Colonelcassad highlights "Aid's" comments on shotguns against FPV drones, suggesting tactical adaptations. Военкор Котенок posts a video showing a mix of medical emergency response and military training/operations footage, with a caption indicating a deficit of medics at the front. Операция Z amplifies a video showing Russian President Vladimir Putin discussing the establishment of a federal holiday for veterans of special military operations. Colonelcassad posts video claiming successful FPV drone and artillery strikes by RF's 3rd Army Corps on a UAF 155mm M109A5 self-propelled howitzer near Konstantinovka, supporting claims of continued high-intensity combat and RF precision capabilities. Воин DV posts a video showing military vehicles and apparent combat in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by RF "CENTER" and "VOSTOK" groups, suggesting ongoing RF ground operations and pressure in the area. Два майора posts a photo message showing a body exchange, confirming the ongoing process of exchanging fallen soldiers between both sides. Alex Parker Returns posts a grim video showing decomposing bodies in military fatigues and a scorched forest, indicating recent heavy combat and significant casualties, likely RF losses given the channel's general bias. Colonelcassad posts video claiming an UAF DRG of 4 militants armed with a "Baba-Yaga" heavy hexacopter was destroyed on the right bank of the Dnieper in Kherson Oblast while attempting to cross to the left bank. Alex Parker Returns shares information from Russian sources alleging that Rostec structures are servicing UAF helicopters (Mi-8MT/MTB) via AAL Group Ltd., registered in the UAE. Colonelcassad posts video on Wagner Group training Belarusian forces for 2 years, highlighting their combat experience in Syria and Africa. Alex Parker Returns posts video depicting a green pickup truck with supplies driving through a heavily damaged village, possibly from a forward logistics operation. New intelligence shows that the Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration, Dmitry Kozak, has been dismissed. Colonelcassad has posted videos of an exhibition "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" in Moscow's Victory Museum, showcasing Russian military heroism and destroyed enemy equipment. This includes an interactive map of military operations. OSINT-analyst Brady Africk reports RF has recently built a new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast, 35 km from the Ukrainian border. "Военкоры Русской Весны" (amplified by Операция Z) claims a former UAF officer who defected in 2014 is commanding the Russian offensive on Kupiansk. ТАСС reports RF Deputy Commander of a VDV assault battalion claims UAF forces are abandoning NATO weapons during retreat in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ТАСС reports RF forces advanced near Kupyansk, specifically at Kucherovka and Petropavlovka, clearing a tree line and destroying a UAF fortified area. ТАСС posts a video claiming a Croatian citizen, who recently obtained Russian citizenship, surrendered to Russian FPV drone operators in Zaporizhzhia Oblast while serving with UAF. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message with the caption " Airborne brotherhood, good morning!", a morale-boosting message likely depicting RF VDV forces.
• Air/Naval: High concentration of strategic bombers. "West-2025" and "Rubezh 2025" exercises ongoing, involving significant naval deployments and strategic aviation. OAK handed over another batch of new Su-34 fighter-bombers. RF launched three S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles and 75 drones (over 40 of them Shaheds) overnight. Tu-22M3 bombers patrolled over Barents Sea for "Zapad-2025." MoD Russia posts video of "Zapad 2025" Baltic Fleet repelling uncrewed surface vehicle attack. Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeployed. Baltic Fleet naval aviation conducted combat use of UMPK and Kh-31A anti-ship missiles. MoD Russia posts video of Iskander-M missile system electronic launches in Kaliningrad. MoD Russia and Basurin confirm successful missile launch from a submarine in Barents-Sea. Convoy of at least one military truck with two attack helicopters providing escort observed in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Bangladesh, India, Iran, Burkina Faso, Congo, and Mali participated in "Zapad-2025." Russia tested naval hypersonic weapons. "Massive use of unmanned aircraft and ground robots" as a feature of "Zapad-2025." Frigate "Admiral Golovko" conducted a Zircon hypersonic missile strike. MoD Russia posts video of "Zapad-2025" exercises showing landing craft disembarking BMPs and IL-76 transport aircraft conducting large-scale airdrops. Practical phase of "Zapad-2025" exercises concluded in Leningrad Oblast. RF strikes on railway infrastructure. UAF Air Force reports enemy tactical aviation activity in Sea of Azov, and КАБы on Kherson, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts. First regular flight from Moscow to Krasnodar since 2022. CSTO command-staff exercises "Rubezh-2025" began in Kyrgyzstan. Reports RF troops leaving Belarusian training grounds. Video showcasing a Russian naval parade. US Commerce Department denied "Belavia" permission to operate Boeing flights to Russia. UAF Air Force reports new launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aviation on the border of Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. UAF Air Force warns of a high-speed target heading towards Kharkiv. MoD Russia posts video of Il-38 anti-submarine aircraft conducting practical bombing of ground targets. UAF Air Force reports attack UAVs in Synelnykove, Novgorod-Siversky districts, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk Oblasts, and heading towards Kryvyi Rih district. An RF drone strike on a gas station in Poltava district. Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs (КАБ) on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photos of RF Su-25s flying low. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Zaliznychne, Rizdvyanka, Kamyanske, Hryhorivka, Veselyanka of Zaporizhzhia region, Antonivka, Inhulets of Kherson region, citing UAF General Staff. MoD Russia posts video compilation "Rubikon in action." Полиция Хабаровского края posts video of RF Minister of Internal Affairs Kolokoltsev visiting a police armaments exhibition in China. ТАСС reports Lavrov is planning to meet with UN Secretary-General Guterres. MoD Russia posts video showing Army Aviation Ka-52m helicopter hitting AFU manpower and armored vehicles in the Sever Group of Forces responsibility. Air Force of Ukraine reports tactical aviation activity in the northeast direction, specifically launching guided aerial bombs (КАБ) towards Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБы ➡️ на Донеччину! (Guided aerial bombs towards Donetsk Oblast!). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district). ТАСС reports the US State Department approved a possible sale of Javelin missiles to Poland for $780 million. ТАСС posts video of "Красноярск" and "Омск" nuclear submarines of the Pacific Fleet performing "Onyx" and "Granit" cruise missile launches in the Okhotsk Sea during exercises. Colonelcassad posts a video showcasing China's military development, specifically the testing of armed "robot dogs." The video shows a quadruped robot firing what appears to be an RPG.
• UAV/EW: Persistent FPV drone operations, reconnaissance UAV activity. Claims of destroying 80 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. "Molniya-2" UAVs adapted with fiber optics. Mass Shahed launches from three locations. Claims destruction of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone via FPV drone. Russia has managed to create a "drone production empire". RF air defense claims 87 RF UAVs were shot down overnight. UAF Air Force warns of multiple groups of RF UAVs approaching Kharkiv via Vilcha, Vovchansk, and Slatyne. Video claiming 218th Guards Tank Regiment air defense battery clearing skies of enemy drones. "Zephyr-M" UAV. UAF Air Force reports several UAV groups past Derhachi, heading towards Kharkiv. Russian drone invaded Lithuania was launched from Belarus. UAF Air Force reports a group of UAVs (mopeds) heading towards Nizhyn, Chernihiv Oblast. "Drone safety" in Saratov, Tambov, Voronezh, Rostov, and Volgograd Oblasts. A fire at Morozovsk airfield in Rostov Oblast. UAF Air Force reports new groups of RF attack UAVs (mopeds) detected over Kherson Oblast, heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast. MoD Russia posts new video showcasing diverse drone activity. UAF Air Force reports UAVs in Poltava suburbs and multiple groups of UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast heading towards Kamianske. UAF Air Force reports new groups of RF attack UAVs (mopeds) moving through Okhtyrka district, Sumy Oblast, towards Poltava Oblast. New drone danger warning for Bryansk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a new RF UAV (moped) heading towards Myrhorod in Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a UAV in Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Baturyn. "Ostatok po mopedam" update. Video of the "Torn-MDM" complex being used during "Zapad-2025" exercises. RF anti-icing technology for UAVs for extreme cold. Plans for anti-drone protected security zones in Russian border areas. UAF General Staff states RF has used over 2000 drones. RF FPV drone strike on a minibus in Vasylivsky district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF air defense destroyed 8 enemy UAVs overnight. Enemy reconnaissance UAV in Zaporizhzhia. Enemy attack UAV in Kramatorsk. Video of a UAF soldier picking up an RF fiber-optic FPV drone "KVN", which then detonates. UAF Air Force, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-УкраїНА all report 136 RF UAVs shot down/suppressed out of 172 launched, including over 100 Shaheds. Video with an Orlan-30 drone operator discussing its EW resistance. Bakonov states an analog of Starlink will soon appear in Russia. Claims Russian "Geraniums" (Shaheds) hit two substations overnight. Video of "Akhmat" SpN Regiment FPV drone reconnaissance on Sumy direction. Roscosmos CEO reported Russia will soon have its own satellite communication terminal. UAF Air Force warns of a high-speed target heading towards Kharkiv. Kotsnews claims "Rubikon" fighters shot down 1000 enemy drones. UAF Air Force reports attack UAVs in Synelnykove, Novgorod-Siversky districts, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk Oblasts, and heading towards Kryvyi Rih district. Colonelcassad reports the development of a polyamide net capable of neutralizing 50-100% of the kinetic energy of loitering munitions. Kotsnews reports AI is being implemented in the process of updating the Ruviki encyclopedia at Kazan Digital Week 2025. Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming "Akhmat" special forces successfully used a KVN drone to strike a UAF pickup truck with infantry in a wooded area on the Kharkiv direction, claiming "3 dead fighters." Два майора posts a video showcasing a possible Russian drone destroying a Ukrainian tank, implying RF drone effectiveness. "Операция Z" amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" claiming "Otvazhnye" forces are using "BABA-YAGA" drones to destroy NATO equipment, infantry, and enemy positions near Pokrovsk. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report a fragment of a Russian "Gerbera" (likely a UAV) was discovered on a beach in Latvia, indicating potential operational failures or increased reconnaissance activity by RF near NATO borders. Prime Minister Shmyhal states Ukraine will use 1000 interceptor drones per day in the near future. This indicates an urgent and substantial scale-up of UAF counter-UAV capabilities. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement that Ukraine will use 1000 interceptor drones per day in the near future, indicating a strategic shift towards large-scale counter-UAV operations. New intelligence from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS indicates Ukraine is producing 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month and aims for 7 missiles daily by year-end, signaling an increase in domestic missile production. Николаевский Ванёк reports three UAVs approaching Pavlohrad, and subsequent defensive actions and successful downing of UAVs in Pavlohrad. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine report over 20 Shaheds are heading from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv. The Air Force of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast. РБК-Україна posts a video message reporting RF has recently built a new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast, 35 km from the Ukrainian border, attributed to OSINT-analyst Brady Africk. РБК-Україна also posts a tactical analysis of a satellite image of the Bryansk Oblast launch site. This new site likely implies an increased and more direct drone threat to northern Ukraine, particularly Kyiv and Sumy Oblasts. Воин DV posts a video showing FPV drone operators from RF intercepting Ukrainian UAVs in the sky of Donbass. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posted a video claiming to show aerial combat on the Zaporizhzhia front, displaying FPV drone footage, telemetry data, and what appears to be a Ukrainian drone targeting Russian equipment. This indicates continued intense drone warfare.
• Air Defense: Photos of a Pantsir-S1/S2 air defense system. RF air defense destroyed 10 enemy UAVs over Bryansk Oblast overnight. MoD Russia posts video of MiG-31bm fighter jets protecting long-range aircraft. PPO is working on drones in Kyiv Oblast and in Kyiv. Temporary flight restrictions at Volgograd, Kaluga, and Saratov airports. RF air defense intercepted and destroyed UAVs in five districts of Rostov Oblast. RF air defense destroyed 8 enemy UAVs overnight. UAF Air Force, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-УкраїНА all report 136 RF UAVs shot down/suppressed out of 172 launched. UAF Air Force reports the threat for Kharkiv has been lifted. RF MoD claims 6 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Belgorod Oblast. 7 RF UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in the evening. ТАСС reports PVO forces shot down six Ukrainian UAVs over Kursk, Belgorod, and Rostov Oblasts. The air raid alarm in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted. ASTRA reports temporary flight restrictions at Samara airport. Air Force of Ukraine reports tactical aviation activity in the northeast. Николаевский Ванёк reports Pavlohrad began defending against the drone attack, with a subsequent successful downing of drones. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports an air raid alert, followed by an all-clear. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a UAV was shot down over Kyiv overnight, with debris falling in multiple locations, as confirmed by KMVA, indicating successful defensive action.

NEW INTELLIGENCE:

• RF Air Defense Deliveries: Almaz-Antey concern delivered air defense equipment to RF troops ahead of schedule. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• Ukraine Air Force F-16 Claim: Video depicts an alleged UAF F-16 shooting down an RF Shahed-136 with an AIM-9M/L missile. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)
• Zaporizhzhia Anti-Drone Tunnels: Zaporizhzhia Oblast is building dozens of kilometers of anti-drone tunnels to protect logistics. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• RF Internal Security (Moscow Bomb Plot): Russian FSB reports thwarting a bomb plot in Moscow targeting a military vehicle, allegedly by an individual disguised as a woman and working under Ukrainian orders. The plot also reportedly targeted an RF Investigative Committee officer. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• RF Internal Security (Cocaine Smuggling): FSB reports intercepting over 1.5 tons of cocaine from Ecuador in St. Petersburg port, valued at over 20 billion rubles. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• RF Mining Prohibition Proposal: TASS reports a proposal to ban cryptocurrency mining during daytime in most RF regions to prevent electricity deficits in autumn/winter. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• Russian-Laotian Military Exercise: MoD Russia reports the "Laros 2025" joint exercise has begun in Lao People's Democratic Republic. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• North Korean UAV Demonstration: Alex Parker Returns and Военкор Котенок report North Korea demonstrated a new long-range UAV (10,000km range, nuclear capable), likely for strategic IO effect. (FACT, RF/PRO-RF IO)
• RF EW Development: MoD Russia is establishing a separate institution for military-scientific research in EW system development. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• Pulkovo Airport Cyberattack: TASS and Sever.Realii report the Pulkovo Airport website has been hacked, with service currently restricted. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• RF Mine Clearance Robot: Colonelcassad posts video of a "Kamikaze" robot-trawl for detecting and detonating anti-personnel mines. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• Kozachi Laheri (Kherson Oblast): RF forces conducted raids on houses and shot three people around midnight on 18.09.2025 in occupied Kozachi Laheri. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• RF Response to European Council Structure: Dmitry Medvedev (RF) states Moscow will give a harsh response to the creation of a "Russophobic" structure in the Council of Europe for collecting "compensation" from RF. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• Russia-Philippines Aviation Resumption: Resumption of direct air travel between Russia and the Philippines is planned for October. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• EU LNG Ban: The European Commission will propose banning Russian LNG imports by January 1, 2027, one year earlier than planned. (FACT, RF REPORT via Reuters)

UAF Forces:

• Defensive: Actively defending across all major axes, repelling numerous RF assaults (11 in Kursk/Sumy directions, 2 in Kherson). President Zelenskyy met with soldiers of the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade, highlighting their participation in the defense of Myrnohrad. Presidential Brigade of UAF posts video showing night combat operations on the front, emphasizing vigilance. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts video of the UAF 1st Assault Battalion holding its front line in Zaporizhzhia and destroying enemy forces with FPV drones, confirming strong defensive posture. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts photos of President Zelenskyy meeting with the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade at their command post, acknowledging their participation in the defense of Mirnohrad and the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation. Олександр Вілкул provides a briefing outlining the continuation of systemic aid to the military, including specialized vehicles, trucks, and 10 DJI Matrice 4T quadcopters for the 77th Airmobile Brigade, reinforcing defensive posture. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a video showing defensive actions with significant engagements on Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Kupiansk directions. Kyiv subway's red line services partially suspended due to an air raid alarm, indicating a defensive control measure. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's operational update confirms UAF repelled the majority of RF assaults on all key axes, demonstrating strong defensive posture and effectiveness. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a UAV was shot down over Kyiv overnight, with debris falling in multiple locations, as confirmed by KMVA, indicating successful defensive action.
• Localized Counter-Offensives: Confirmed liberation of Pankivka, Donetsk Oblast, and Zarichne. UAF reports eliminating a Russian breakthrough near Pokrovsk with ongoing cleanup operations. The "STRIKS" unit's successful strikes on the Southern Slobozhansky direction and border guard strikes on RF vehicles demonstrate tactical offensive readiness. President Zelenskyy's visit to Donetsk Oblast, where he discussed liberated territories and met with soldiers of the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation, confirms active UAF offensive operations, including 160 sq km liberated and 7 settlements freed. The 1st Assault Regiment successfully repelled an RF "pincer" maneuver near Dobropillya. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts video of the "STRIKS" unit (4th Border Guard Detachment) successfully destroying two enemy positions, a shelter, a BMP, and two vehicles (one with ammunition) on the Southern Slobozhansky direction using FPV drones, indicating continued effective localized offensive action. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts photos of President Zelenskyy meeting with the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade at their command post, acknowledging their participation in the defense of Mirnohrad and the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation, and discussing a "Dobropillya counter-offensive operation." Оперативний ЗСУ posts video depicting drone footage of Ukrainian military positions, specifically trenches, being targeted and struck by munitions, with a logo of what appears to be a Ukrainian military insignia and a unit emblem with drones and an eagle, suggesting successful counter-offensive actions or defensive strikes against enemy positions. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a video compilation showing intense combat engagements from a drone's perspective on the Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Kupiansk directions, documenting numerous RF artillery strikes and personnel losses. Two Ukrainian reconnaissance companies, including the "VARTOVI" unmanned systems battalion of Mykolaiv marines, are actively engaging Russian military assets, targeting vehicle convoys, artillery, and infantry positions. UAF drone operators from the 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" successfully destroyed eight Russian assault troops on the Pokrovsk direction.
• High Readiness in Key Sectors: Sustained commitment of forces in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction and efforts to hold Kupiansk demonstrate readiness. Visual confirmation of the 77th Airmobile Brigade's presence.
• Tactical Drone Integration: Extensive use of FPV and thermal-imaging drones for night operations and precision strikes (Azov Brigade, "Shadow" unit), including new 10-inch FPV drones from volunteer efforts. New cooperation agreement with Poland on drones, and joint operational group on UAVs. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of the 1st Assault Battalion using FPV drones against RF checkpoints and transport. President Zelenskyy's discussions with commanders of the 82nd Air Assault Brigade explicitly included drone systems. "Підрозділ Shadow" posts video of successful drone strikes on RF shelters, confirming continued effective tactical drone use. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts video of the UAF 1st Assault Battalion destroying enemy forces with FPV drones in Zaporizhzhia, highlighting effective drone integration for long-range engagements. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts video of the "STRIKS" unit's FPV drone successes on the Southern Slobozhansky direction, further confirming advanced tactical drone integration. Олександр Вілкул posts a briefing detailing the transfer of 10 DJI Matrice 4T quadcopters to the 77th Airmobile Brigade. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a photo message featuring a drone with the caption "Дальність? Вітер? Борт заармовано?" (Range? Wind? Board armed?), indicating UAF's technical focus on drone operations. The "VARTOVI" unmanned systems battalion and 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" are actively demonstrating effective drone operations. Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement about Ukraine using 1000 interceptor drones daily indicates an immediate and significant scaling of UAF counter-UAV capabilities. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement that Ukraine will use 1000 interceptor drones per day in the near future, indicating a strategic shift towards large-scale counter-UAV operations. New intelligence from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS indicates Ukraine is producing 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month and aims for 7 missiles daily by year-end, signaling an increase in domestic missile production. Николаевский Ванёк reports three UAVs approaching Pavlohrad, and subsequent downing of drones. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine report over 20 Shaheds are heading from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv. The Air Force of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast. РБК-Україна posts a video message reporting RF has recently built a new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast, 35 km from the Ukrainian border, attributed to OSINT-analyst Brady Africk. РБК-Україна also posts a tactical analysis of a satellite image of the Bryansk Oblast launch site. This new site likely implies an increased and more direct drone threat to northern Ukraine, particularly Kyiv and Sumy Oblasts. Воин DV posts a video showing FPV drone operators from RF intercepting Ukrainian UAVs in the sky of Donbass. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posted a video claiming to show aerial combat on the Zaporizhzhia front, displaying FPV drone footage, telemetry data, and what appears to be a Ukrainian drone targeting Russian equipment. This visual confirmation reinforces UAF's active and successful use of drones in combat.
• Personnel Mobilization: DPSU is transferring data on men attempting to illegally cross the border to TCCs. The new Law on the Military Ombudsman indicates a focus on personnel welfare. Training activities by the Zaporizhzhia Center for National Resistance. РБК-Україна posts a photo message claiming a Ministry of Defense official was exposed in an evasion scheme, indicating ongoing efforts to combat corruption related to mobilization. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo message reporting the exposure of heads of military medical commissions in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts who helped military personnel transfer to rear units for bribes, indicating continued issues with personnel integrity within the mobilization system.
• Morale: Exhibitions for Tank Troops Day and commemoration of rescuers. Positive messaging about the 77th Airmobile Brigade. Discussions with families of POW/MIA personnel. Opening of a memorial alley in Zaporizhzhia. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts reinforcing soldier camaraderie. President Zelenskyy has visited a command post of the Air Assault Forces (DSHV) in Donetsk Oblast, discussing active defense, training, manning, and drone systems. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (Kharkiv ODA Head) posts photo messages about stable mobile communication and internet being guaranteed even under enemy shelling. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of captured Russian soldiers, including one who claims to have been captured just two weeks after signing a contract. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts photo messages of President Zelenskyy awarding soldiers participating in the Dobropillya counter-offensive. "Николаевский Ванёк" posts an exclusive video of a captured Cuban mercenary, providing HUMINT on RF recruitment of foreign nationals and their combat experience. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts photos of President Zelenskyy meeting with the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade at their command post, acknowledging their participation in the defense of Mirnohrad and the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo message announcing the opening of a mental health center for military personnel, veterans, and their families in Ternopil, highlighting UAF efforts to support the well-being of its forces and their families. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" is running a fundraiser/raffle for a "cool shell casing," indicative of continued grassroots support and morale-boosting efforts. "Оперативний ЗСУ" is actively soliciting donations for troops on the Pokrovsk direction, demonstrating continued public engagement in supporting the military. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video showing the Motherland Monument in Kyiv illuminated with patriotic laser projections ("UNITY", "VOLIA"), directly reinforcing UAF morale and national identity. STERNENKO posts a message encouraging donations, connecting financial contributions to reducing Russian presence.
• Internal Security: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video with captured RF soldiers discussing murder charges. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the conviction of a "Rashist" (Russian) who oversaw the "Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation" during the occupation of Kherson, signaling continued UAF efforts to prosecute collaborators and war criminals. РБК-Україна refutes claims of a "data leak" from e-Notariat (Ukrainian electronic notary system) are false and that Ukrainian data is secure, indicating continued efforts to counter disinformation regarding internal security. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts multiple photo messages related to RF casualties.
• External Support: NATO confirms the first US weapons delivery under PURL (Presidential Ukraine Reconnaissance and Logistics) has arrived in Ukraine, with more expected soon. РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS corroborate this. Олександр Вілкул's briefing details the transfer of 6.423 million UAH in aid to the 77th Airmobile Brigade, including private funds, from Кривий Ріг. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 posts a photo message highlighting that the USA and Great Britain signed a technology cooperation agreement. ТАСС reports the EU is discussing using frozen RF assets for a loan to Kyiv, bypassing Hungary, indicating continued EU support initiatives. РБК-Україна posts a photo message stating Zelenskyy invited Qatar to a summit in New York regarding the return of Ukrainian children, indicating ongoing international diplomatic efforts to address humanitarian issues. Reuters reports the EU plans to accelerate its rejection of Russian LNG due to pressure from Trump. This signals continued strong international support for decoupling from Russian energy. Рыбарь posts an image depicting the Polish Navy's projected strength, providing intelligence on regional force disposition. Bloomberg reports the EU plans to accelerate its rejection of Russian LNG due to pressure from Trump. This signals continued strong international support for decoupling from Russian energy. РБК-Україна reports Poland is conducting large-scale checks of bomb shelters. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a photo showing Rustem Umierov (Secretary of NSDC) and Patrick Turner (Head of NATO Representation in Ukraine) in a meeting, discussing security guarantees, indicating continued high-level engagement between Ukraine and NATO. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports that part of the weapons purchased by the EU from the USA for Kyiv has already arrived in Ukraine, confirming continued material support. ТАСС reports the US State Department approved a possible sale of Javelin missiles to Poland for $780 million. РБК-Україна reports that Rustem Umierov (Secretary of NSDC) met with Patrick Turner (Head of NATO Representation in Ukraine) to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine.
• NEW: UAF Internal Corruption: Russian sources amplify a UAF report (Oфіс Генерального прокурора) claiming a former UAF unit commander in Dnipropetrovsk helped Ukrainians flee units. (FACT, RF IO via UAF report)
• NEW: UAF Donations: STERNENKO reports current donations are "a bit worse than yesterday," indicating continued reliance on public support but potential fluctuations. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• NEW: UAF Casualty Statistics: Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" posts "successfully demobilized" statistics, likely UAF reporting of RF casualties. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• NEW: UAF GUR Raid: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS share video of UAF GUR "Viking" unit destroying an RF "Vityaz" multi-purpose tracked transporter on Tendra Spit. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• NEW: Zhytomyr Incident: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a pre-trial investigation has begun into a fatal traffic accident in Zhytomyr involving the death of a prosecutor. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• NEW: Zaporizhzhia Humanitarian Efforts: Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація posts on expanding cooperation with "Відповідальні громадяни" (Responsible Citizens) NGO to protect children and support families. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• NEW: UAF Border Guard Commander Absence (RF IO): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims the commander of the 11th Border Detachment of the State Border Service of Ukraine left for vacation while his unit was retreating with losses on the Kharkiv direction. (FACT, RF CLAIM - likely IO)
• NEW: UAF Training: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts photos and a caption detailing first-year cadets at a Military Institute completing an obstacle course, the final stage of basic combined-arms training, highlighting continued training and personnel readiness. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• NEW: EU Drone Wall: Оперативний ЗСУ reports next week EU defense ministers will discuss creating a "wall of drones" along the EU's eastern border. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• NEW: Zelenskyy Meeting: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy may meet with Navrotsky for the first time in the coming days. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• NEW: Vinnytsia Corruption: The Vinnytsia Prosecutor's Office is countering schemes of budget fund, land, and communal property embezzlement, uncovering over 30 million UAH in damages. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• NEW: Azovstal Defender Operation: A bullet has been successfully removed from the heart of an Azovstal defender in Kyiv, who spent three years in captivity with the bullet. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• NEW: FPV Drone Procurement: 370 FPV drones, including 40 Shahed interceptors, were procured in the last day through public donations. (FACT, UAF REPORT)

1.4. Information Environment (Cognitive domain)

Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (Confidence: HIGH):

• RF Narratives: RF is actively attempting to discredit UAF's counter-offensive success in Donetsk, downplay its own losses, and amplify any perceived UAF setbacks or disorganization. They are aggressively using the Konstantinovka civilian casualties and the 1000:24 body exchange ratio (highly exaggerated) to paint a picture of UAF failure and RF military prowess. RF IO is leveraging Trump's statements to sow confusion and portray Western disunity on Ukraine support, particularly his "Putin let me down" and "terrible relations between Putin and Zelenskyy" comments. They are attempting to link rising antisemitism in Europe to broader societal decay (Flensburg incident) to deflect from their own actions. RF is also using narratives of internal RF stability and normalcy (Kamchatka earthquake, civilian fundraising efforts for armor) to mask the impact of the war. They actively promote their military technology and manpower. RF will use the US Gaza ceasefire veto to portray the US as hypocritical. Alex Parker Returns's claim of Rostec structures servicing UAF helicopters is a new, subtle IO attempt to sow distrust and imply corruption or collaboration. Colonelcassad's video of UAF DRG destruction aims to project RF defensive successes and UAF losses. Colonelcassad's promotion of Wagner training in Belarus aims to enhance the image of RF military capability and expertise. RF continues to challenge international decisions (MH17) to portray itself as a victim of international bias. MoD Russia's "Top News Today" serves as a general IO effort to control the daily narrative. The ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ channel's complaints about a low-participation fundraising marathon might inadvertently reveal internal strains within some pro-RF volunteer networks, but is framed as a call for more support. ТАСС reports Putin released Kozak from his position as Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration. RF IO will likely frame this as a routine or positive administrative change to reinforce an image of strong, decisive leadership. Alex Parker Returns's post on "contributions from restaurant checks for SVO needs" is an IO effort to promote public support for the war, while also subtly criticizing perceived resource allocation disparities, possibly aimed at internal dissent. Новости Москвы's video about S7 Airlines' new uniforms and TASS's report on Trump's TikTok statements are examples of RF IO attempting to project normalcy, economic stability, and engagement with international issues unrelated to the conflict, as a distraction. Colonelcassad posts a photo message quoting Trump saying it is "not the time to ask Putin for a ceasefire," which RF IO will amplify to project RF strength and an unwavering stance. Minister of Finance Siluanov's statement on an expected 12-13% key rate for the 2026 budget indicates continued focus on economic stability messaging. Операция Z amplifies a Business Insider report predicting a world crisis in 2026, which RF IO will likely leverage to portray Western economic instability. Colonelcassad posts videos and images from the "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition, promoting RF military heroism and displaying destroyed enemy equipment (unattributed to specific units). "Военкоры Русской Весны" (amplified by Операция Z) claims a former UAF officer who defected in 2014 is commanding the Russian offensive on Kupiansk, a narrative that RF will leverage to sow discord within UAF. RF IO is actively disseminating content (Операция Z) that claims "shooting and explosions" in Kyiv, aiming to amplify the psychological impact of the drone attack and generate panic or demoralization among the Ukrainian population. Рыбарь's recent message (🇺🇸🇻🇪Вы думаете, это реально оказалась по итогу лодка с 60-тью наркосами?) could be a diversionary tactic to draw attention away from the Kyiv attack and other RF military actions. ТАСС reports that the "Fair Russia — For Truth" party proposes to increase maternity capital for a second child to 1 million rubles and for a third to 1.5 million rubles. This is RF IO aimed at boosting internal morale and addressing demographic challenges, projecting stability and state care. Операция Z reports on a man discussing salary disparities between military and civilian personnel in Ukraine. This is an RF IO attempt to sow discord, highlight perceived economic hardship, and potentially portray military service as economically unviable or emotionally taxing in Ukraine. ТАСС reports Roskomnadzor (Russian federal service for supervision in the sphere of communications) blocked over 70,000 fraudulent SIM cards using internal systems of the domestic messenger Max. This is an RF IO effort to project effective internal security and control over digital communications, likely to reassure the public and potentially to signal greater control over information flow. TASS reports that individuals involved in the murder of General Kirillov have been accused of organizing a terrorist community. This is an RF IO message to project internal security and control. TASS reports an interview with Viktor Vodolatsky, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee for CIS Affairs, Eurasian Integration, and Relations with Compatriots, stating that the settlement process in Ukraine could drag on until Trump's victory over the "deep state." This is a significant RF IO effort to leverage perceived Western internal divisions and to project a long-term, politically-influenced conflict resolution timeline favorable to RF. The video also features nationalistic rhetoric, emphasizing Russian historical resilience and asserting confidence in Russia's eventual victory and reclaiming of historical lands. This reinforces a narrative of historical destiny and inevitable triumph. РБК-Україна posts a photo message stating Russia has appealed the ICAO decision regarding MH17 at the UN Court. This is a continuation of RF's legal and information warfare to deny responsibility. ТАСС posts a video claiming a Croatian citizen, who recently obtained Russian citizenship, surrendered to Russian FPV drone operators in Zaporizhzhia Oblast while serving with UAF. This is an RF IO attempt to demonstrate UAF disorganization and RF success. Рыбарь posts a daily situation summary, "Chronicle of the SMO for September 18," indicating continued structured RF information dissemination.
• NEW: ТАСС (Maria Zakharova) is actively pushing the narrative that European accusations of RF UAV airspace violations are intended to disrupt conflict resolution in Ukraine. This is a classic deflection tactic, attempting to discredit valid concerns and shift blame. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF Telegram channels (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) are amplifying claims of UAF command failures, specifically alleging the commander of the 11th Border Detachment went on vacation during unit retreat on the Kharkiv direction. This is designed to demoralize UAF and sow distrust in leadership. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF sources (Alex Parker Returns, Военкор Котенок) are showcasing North Korea's new "nuclear-capable" UAV. This is likely an IO effort to project the strength of RF's allies and potentially signal a broadened threat spectrum. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: TASS reports that Minister of Health Murashko stated doctor's salaries should be almost double the regional average. This is an internal RF IO effort to project state care for vital professions and improve morale, especially in a wartime economy. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: TASS (Maria Zakharova) claims the "drone coalition" providing UAVs to Ukraine needs to see "crimes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces" striking civilian targets. This is a direct deflection and false equivalency attempt in response to UAF drone capabilities. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF IO will leverage reports of children with cancer being transported within Russia to project state care and normalcy. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF IO will promote discussions led by Sergey Lavrov at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Business Council to project normalcy and international engagement. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF IO will promote civilian cultural events (e.g., giant vegetable festival in Moscow) to distract from the war and project normalcy. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF IO will leverage the Pulkovo airport cyberattack to either blame UAF (unlikely without direct evidence, but possible implication) or to project RF's own vulnerability and need for robust cyber defenses. (FACT, RF REPORT, JUDGEMENT)
• NEW: RF IO will exploit reports of Ukrainian refugees in Russia inhabiting the apartment of a "traitor" to create narratives of justice and internal stability. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF IO will attempt to downplay the impact of sanctions by showcasing the availability of Western products like iPhones in Russia. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF IO will attempt to deflect from internal issues (e.g., military deaths caused by comrades) to maintain morale and cohesion. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF IO will leverage reports about "reducing product packaging weight" as a sign of economic adaptation and efficiency rather than economic strain. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF IO will focus on discrediting the EU's proposed "wall of drones" along its eastern border, attempting to portray it as an aggressive or ineffective measure. (FACT, RF IO via Рыбарь)
• NEW: RF IO will continue to emphasize perceived UAF military setbacks (e.g., Volchansk) to boost RF morale. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF IO will use reports of their mine clearance robots to project technological advancement and commitment to demining. (FACT, RF REPORT/IO)
• NEW: RF IO will leverage changes to the school curriculum (e.g., excluding "complex topics") to project an image of improving the education system, while subtly enabling easier information control. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF IO is actively promoting discussions about "citizen protection and control over housing and communal services tariffs" with high-level officials (Putin, Volodin) to project effective domestic governance and address public concerns, likely to boost internal morale and deflect from wartime issues. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• NEW: RF IO will leverage the reported decline in Russia's food market (TASS) to highlight external pressures or as a justification for domestic policy, potentially attempting to frame it as a temporary difficulty. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• NEW: RF IO will use car recalls (Geely Emgrand) as a routine administrative issue to project normalcy and effective consumer protection, deflecting from the war. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• NEW: RF IO will frame its "harsh response" to European compensation structures as a strong, sovereign act against "Russophobia." (FACT, RF REPORT)
• NEW: RF IO will use reports of resumed direct flights (Russia-Philippines) to project renewed international engagement and normalisation, despite ongoing conflict. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• NEW: RF IO will attempt to downplay or deflect from the EU's planned ban on Russian LNG by 2027, portraying it as an economically irrational or politically motivated decision. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• NEW: RF IO will leverage claims about UAF 47th Brigade command changes (Operatsiya Z) to sow discord and doubt about UAF leadership effectiveness. (FACT, RF IO)
• UAF Narratives: Emphasis on repelling RF assaults, successful deep strikes (Salavat refinery, Buk-M2), and the capture of RF personnel (425th Regiment "Skelya", "STRIKS" unit successes, border guard strikes, SBU agent detention, Kharkiv spotter detention, 35th Combined Arms Army casualties list) reinforces UAF's fighting capability and resolve. Zelenskyy's report of successful counter-offensive in Donetsk Oblast, including liberated territory and significant RF casualties, is a major boost to this narrative. The active public fundraising for advanced FPV drones ("best drones to work with") is a key part of this narrative. Reconnaissance personnel are highlighted as key to victory. The destroyed Poltava monument helicopter also serves as a symbol of resilience. UAF artillery displaying adaptability and continuous operation also reinforces this. President Zelenskyy's direct engagement with frontline units in Donetsk Oblast and the 82nd Air Assault Brigade command post further supports this narrative. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts reinforcing soldier morale. The 1st Assault Regiment's success near Dobropillya reinforces this. President Zelenskyy meeting with 79th Air Assault Brigade soldiers directly supports the narrative of resilience and success, highlighting specific unit involvement in current operations. The arrival of US PURL weapons is a strong narrative for continued international support and UAF capabilities. The Presidential Brigade of UAF posts a video showcasing night combat operations, emphasizing vigilance and effectiveness. Dnipropetrovsk ODA Head visiting emergency medical services championship highlights preparedness and resilience in the face of attacks. Zaporizhzhia ODA posts about evacuating young footballers, highlighting humanitarian efforts amidst conflict. "Підрозділ Shadow" posts video of successful drone strikes on RF shelters, reinforcing UAF precision strike capabilities. "БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС" posts video of the UAF 1st Assault Battalion holding its front line in Zaporizhzhia and destroying enemy forces with FPV drones, confirming UAF effectiveness and morale. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts video of the "STRIKS" unit's FPV drone successes on the Southern Slobozhansky direction, further confirming advanced tactical drone integration. Олександр Вілкул posts a briefing detailing the transfer of 10 DJI Matrice 4T quadcopters to the 77th Airmobile Brigade. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a photo message featuring a drone with the caption "Дальність? Вітер? Борт заармовано?" (Range? Wind? Борт armed?), indicating UAF's technical focus on drone operations. The "VARTOVI" unmanned systems battalion and 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" are actively demonstrating effective drone operations. Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement about Ukraine using 1000 interceptor drones daily indicates an immediate and significant scaling of UAF counter-UAV capabilities. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts multiple photo messages showcasing a tactical screen with telemetry data. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement that Ukraine will use 1000 interceptor drones per day in the near future, indicating a strategic shift towards large-scale counter-UAV operations. Ukraine is producing 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month and aims for 7 missiles daily by year-end, which will be leveraged to project growing domestic defense capabilities. Documenting casualties (Konstantinovka КАБ strike killing 5 civilians), damage to civilian infrastructure (Nizhyn, Zaporizhzhia), and war crimes allegations (exhumation videos, Donetsk displacement photos) aims to highlight RF atrocities and maintain international support. The opening of a memorial alley in Zaporizhzhia directly reinforces the narrative of sacrifice and remembrance. Demining efforts highlight UAF efforts to protect civilians. Dnipropetrovsk ODA reporting КАБ and drone strikes on civilian communities highlights RF aggression and humanitarian impact. Renewed air alerts in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast are implicitly used to highlight ongoing RF aggression against civilian areas. Reports on investigations into TCC officials and high-level fraud, recent corruption busts in Dnipropetrop- sk Oblast, the investigation into a pro-Russian judge, the detention of Novinsky (RPC curator), and the uncovering of an organized gambling network in Kyiv demonstrate commitment to transparency and good governance. Prosecution of an FSB officer for war crimes. Life sentence for an FSB officer who brutally treated civilians in Kherson Oblast demonstrates accountability for war crimes. Exposure of a human trafficking ring led by a PRC citizen. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the conviction of a "Rashist" who oversaw the "Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation" during the occupation of Kherson, which serves to project UAF's commitment to justice and accountability. Zelenskyy's statements confirming successful operations on RF territory and the impact on the RF fuel sector highlight UAF's growing asymmetrical capabilities. Highlighting security cooperation agreements with partners like Greece and the new drone cooperation agreement with Poland, including a joint operational group. New military aid from Ireland. Poland checking bomb shelters also indirectly signals allied seriousness about RF threats. РБК-Україна reporting Starmer's commitment to help Ukraine with Trump (photo message) promotes this. Trump's statements about "Putin letting him down" and hopes for "good news" on the Ukraine settlement are being used by UAF IO to highlight potential divisions in the West's perception of Putin's actions and a desire for peace on Ukraine's terms. Confirmation of US PURL weapons arrival is a strong narrative for continued international support and UAF capabilities. Operatyvny ZSU also reports the first US PURL weapon delivery. An EU Ambassador emphasizing the need for energy reforms in Ukraine (РБК-Україна) highlights continued international interest and support for Ukraine's long-term stability. UAF IO material depicting soldiers in combat and sacrifice, often leveraging emotional elements like a fallen soldier with a cat, reinforces patriotic narratives. Training initiatives for national resistance also foster patriotism. The Military Ombudsman law emphasizes caring for service members. The Coordination Headquarters provides critical support for families of POWs/MIA, bolstering morale. Active reporting on the return of bodies of fallen servicemen demonstrates transparency and care for personnel. Report on no elections in 2026 implies UAF IO to justify wartime measures. Appointment of Tetyana Chornovol as people's deputy highlights democratic processes. РБК-Україна posts a photo message featuring an analytical piece titled "War, Ukraine, the world. What to pay attention to today," which frames ongoing events from a Ukrainian perspective. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the EU will accelerate its rejection of Russian LNG due to pressure from Trump, positioning this as a positive outcome for Ukraine. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video with an inflammatory caption against the "second army," displaying strong anti-RF sentiment and bolstering UAF morale and resolve. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a video compilation documenting over 1300 combat engagements in the last seven days, with nearly a third on the Pokrovsk direction. РБК-Україна posts a photo message stating Zelenskyy invited Qatar to a summit in New York regarding the return of Ukrainian children, highlighting humanitarian diplomacy. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo message detailing the exposure of heads of military medical commissions in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts for bribery, promoting transparency and anti-corruption efforts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo message announcing the opening of a mental health center in Ternopil for military personnel and veterans, emphasizing support for service members. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts drone footage of Mykolaiv marines (VARTOVI battalion) successfully striking Russian vehicles, artillery, and infantry, demonstrating UAF effectiveness and boosting morale. "БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС" posts drone footage of the 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" destroying eight Russian assault troops on the Pokrovsk direction, further reinforcing the narrative of successful UAF operations and precision. "РБК-Україна" refutes claims of a "data leak" from e-Notariat, serving to reassure the public about data security and counter RF disinformation. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports RF is distributing "evacuation" leaflets in Velyka Pysarivka, Sumy Oblast, which UAF IO can frame as a sign of RF desperation or fear of UAF counter-action. "Оперативний ЗСУ" crowdfunding for the Pokrovsk direction highlights continued public support. "Colonelcassad" posts an image claiming Russian forces destroyed "Georgian mercenary Yura Kalandarishvili," which RF IO will use to discredit foreign fighters and claim successes against NATO-aligned personnel, but UAF IO can use it to highlight the international nature of the conflict and RF's willingness to target foreign fighters. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a humorous video with "victory music," likely a morale-boosting effort. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that a former Ukrainian brigadier general who betrayed Ukraine in 2014 is commanding the assault on Kupiansk, a narrative highlighting internal betrayal which UAF IO can use to emphasize the enemy's reliance on such figures. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна reporting on the "Gerbera" UAV fragment found on a Latvian beach highlights RF external aggression. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement about 1000 interceptor drones daily, boosting morale by projecting a strong, adaptive, and technologically advanced defense. UAF IO will likely frame the EU's accelerated rejection of Russian LNG (Bloomberg) as a victory for international pressure and a sign of weakening Russian economic power. UAF IO will counter RF amplification of Trump's "no ceasefire" statement by highlighting it as evidence that international leaders recognize Putin's unwillingness to genuinely negotiate, reinforcing UAF's resolve to continue fighting. РБК-Україна highlights Poland conducting large-scale checks of bomb shelters, framing it within the context of European readiness to RF threats. РБК-Україна shares a video of Donald Trump suggesting Europe taking action against China could accelerate the end of the war in Ukraine, which UAF IO will likely monitor for opportunities to reinforce narratives of international pressure on RF. Оперативний ЗСУ posts messages regarding Russia's challenge to the ICAO decision on MH17, framing it as Russia attempting to evade responsibility. РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Pavlohrad, and Николаевский Ванёк reports successful downing of drones. These immediate reports from UAF-aligned channels serve as direct IO reinforcing UAF's active defense and effectiveness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting that Ukraine produces 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month, aiming for 7 daily by year-end, which will be leveraged to project growing domestic defense capabilities. The UAF Air Force (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) reporting 20+ Shaheds from Chernihiv to Kyiv is a direct and immediate UAF IO response highlighting ongoing RF threats and UAF defensive vigilance. The Air Force of Ukraine (Повітряні Сили ЗС України) report on a group of UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast also serves as a critical, immediate UAF IO communication. РБК-Україна posts a video message reporting RF has recently built a new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast, 35 km from the Ukrainian border, attributed to OSINT-analyst Brady Africk. РБК-Україна also posts a tactical analysis of a satellite image of the Bryansk Oblast launch site. This new site likely implies an increased and more direct drone threat to northern Ukraine, particularly Kyiv and Sumy Oblasts. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posted a video claiming to show aerial combat on the Zaporizhzhia front, displaying FPV drone footage, telemetry data, and what appears to be a Ukrainian drone targeting Russian equipment. This visual confirmation reinforces UAF's active and successful use of drones in combat.

NEW INTELLIGENCE:

• RF Casualties: Ukrainian General Staff "Friday Mathematics" photo message (Два майора, RF source) likely reporting UAF claims of RF casualties. (FACT, RF IO)
• UAF Drone Strike on RF Vehicle: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video showing a UAF drone strike on an RF vehicle on a rural road, with "BOMB ARMED" overlay. This directly reinforces UAF precision strike capabilities. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Drone Strike/Artillery on RF Positions: Сливочный каприз (UAF-aligned) posts video of UAF drone-directed artillery strikes on RF positions in a wooded area near Konstantinovka - Oleksandro-Shultyno. This demonstrates continued effective UAF targeting. (FACT, UAF-ALIGNED REPORT)
• UAF Counter-Offensive Operations (Pokrovsk): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts drone footage of 414th Brigade "Madjar's Birds" destroying eight RF assault troops near Pokrovsk. This highlights continued UAF offensive pressure and tactical success. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Civilian Support: Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація posts on expanding cooperation with "Відповідальні громадяни" NGO for child protection and family support. This reinforces the narrative of state care and humanitarian efforts. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Fundraising: STERNENKO reporting slightly lower donations indicates a potential need for increased public engagement or diversified funding efforts. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Zhytomyr Incident (Internal Affairs): The Prosecutor General's Office initiating an investigation into a prosecutor's death in Zhytomyr demonstrates UAF's commitment to rule of law and internal accountability. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Public Trust: РБК-Україна posts poll data from KIIS on public trust in Zelenskyy in September, providing insights into public sentiment. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Drone Procurement: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video discussing the ongoing procurement of drone detection equipment, highlighting UAF's proactive measures against drone threats and public support. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Military Training: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts photos and a caption detailing first-year cadets at a Military Institute completing an obstacle course, the final stage of basic combined-arms training, highlighting continued training and personnel readiness. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Diplomacy: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy may meet with Navrotsky for the first time in the coming days, indicating ongoing diplomatic efforts. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Internal Corruption (Vinnytsia): The Vinnytsia Prosecutor's Office is countering schemes of budget fund, land, and communal property embezzlement, uncovering over 30 million UAH in damages. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Medical Success (Azovstal Defender): A video by Оперативний ЗСУ highlights the successful surgical removal of a bullet from the heart of an Azovstal defender in Kyiv. This narrative reinforces resilience and successful medical care. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF FPV Drone Procurement (Public Support): STERNENKO reports that 370 FPV drones, including 40 Shahed interceptors, were procured in the last day through public donations. This demonstrates continued public engagement and UAF efforts to scale drone capabilities. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Living Wage Review: The Ministry of Finance is reviewing the living wage in Ukraine. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Heating Season Preparations: Less than a month remains until the formal start of the heating season on October 15th. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Criticism of RF Tactics: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video depicting RF soldiers driving over mines, with the caption criticizing Russian commanders for not caring about casualties. This is a clear UAF IO effort to demoralize RF forces and highlight their callous leadership. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Commander's 100 Days: "Николаевский Ванёк" posts about the "100 days of the SBS Commander," likely a positive internal UAF message or recognition. (FACT, UAF REPORT)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Capabilities (Confidence: HIGH): RF continues to demonstrate robust ground offensive capabilities on multiple axes, supported by significant artillery and glide bomb resources. They possess advanced FPV drone and reconnaissance UAV capabilities. RF maintains a strong strategic aviation and naval presence, conducting exercises like "Zapad-2025" and "Rubezh 2025," and "Laros 2025" with Laos. The capability to conduct deep strikes (Salavat refinery implies UAF capability) and high-volume drone attacks is confirmed. RF retains a sophisticated information warfare apparatus capable of multi-layered disinformation campaigns. Their ability to recruit and deploy foreign nationals (Cuban mercenaries, Croatian citizens) and controversial personnel (pardoned criminals) reflects ongoing efforts to augment manpower. RF is adapting its tactics, experimenting with UGVs and attempting urban infiltration. They possess advanced EW capabilities (Orlan-30 drone EW resistance). The reported construction of a new "Shahed" drone launch facility (Bryansk Oblast) indicates growing production capacity for UAVs and an advanced launch posture. RF continues to train allied forces, as evidenced by Wagner's training of Belarusian forces. RF leadership has demonstrated the capability to make high-level personnel changes, as seen with Kozak's release. RF maintains economic stability, as indicated by the Ministry of Finance's budget forecasts. RF has secured a commander for the Kupiansk offensive with prior UAF experience, potentially offering a tactical advantage. RF demonstrates a continued capability for high-intensity, multi-wave drone attacks targeting the capital, specifically Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast. RF continues to demonstrate naval construction capabilities, albeit with significant delays, as evidenced by the launch of the "Strelok" missile boat. This highlights a persistent, long-term effort to maintain and modernize its naval fleet. RF has the capability to intercept and destroy Ukrainian FPV drones, as demonstrated by the Воин DV video and the new Операция Z video from Zaporizhzhia. RF possesses the capability for extensive cyber and information control, as evidenced by Roskomnadzor blocking a large number of fraudulent SIM cards associated with messenger services. This indicates a sophisticated state-level capability to monitor and manipulate digital communication infrastructure. RF's Pacific Fleet demonstrated cruise missile launch capabilities from nuclear submarines, underscoring their strategic naval power projection. China's testing of armed robot dogs (Colonelcassad) demonstrates advancements in unmanned ground systems, which, while not RF capabilities, highlights global trends in military technology that RF may seek to emulate or counter. RF has a demonstrated capability to conduct multi-wave drone attacks, as seen in the overnight attack on Pavlohrad. RF is capable of sustained ground assaults, including the use of incendiary munitions against UAF infantry, as reported in Volchansk. RF has the capability to inflict civilian casualties through precision strikes, as evidenced by the attack on the Stepnohirsk community. RF has the capability to conduct targeted SOF operations, as claimed by Colonelcassad on the Vremevsky direction. RF has demonstrated the capability to develop and field sophisticated air defense systems, as evidenced by Israel's Iron Beam (reported by RF source) which may influence RF's own R&D. RF has delivered a batch of new "Pantsir-SMD" SAM systems, indicating continued modernization of air defense capabilities. RF has demonstrated surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities using drones, as seen with the "Rubikon" video. RF has shown the ability to inflict civilian casualties through drone strikes in Belgorod Oblast. UAF SSO has demonstrated deep strike capability against RF logistics hubs in Kursk Oblast. RF's 5th Guards Army "Vostok" Group drone operators are active on the Vremevsky direction, demonstrating continued drone ISR and strike capability. RF naval capabilities include long-range cruise missile launches from nuclear submarines, as demonstrated by the Pacific Fleet exercises in the Okhotsk Sea. (Басурин о главном) RF possesses foreign military technology analysis capabilities, as evidenced by reports on Japan's railgun test. (Colonelcassad) RF maintains control over its telecommunications to combat fraud, which could be extended for broader information control. (ТАСС) RF has demonstrated capability to interdict large-scale narcotics smuggling, projecting internal security capability. (ТАСС) RF can provide drone air cover for assault groups to counter UAF heavy copters. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)
• NEW: RF demonstrates continued capability for ISR and FPV drone strikes in the Zaporizhzhia sector. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• NEW: RF has demonstrated long-range UAV development or acquisition capabilities, as evidenced by the North Korean "nuclear-capable" drone. While not directly an RF capability, it signifies potential future procurement or technological influence. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF has a declared intention to develop and improve its electronic warfare (EW) systems and troops, indicating a long-term strategic focus on this domain. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• NEW: RF maintains the capability to conduct cyberattacks against critical infrastructure, as demonstrated by the hack of Pulkovo airport's website. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• NEW: RF is deploying advanced mine clearance robots, indicating a capability to address minefields and protect advancing forces. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• Intentions (Confidence: HIGH): RF intends to maintain offensive pressure on key axes (Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia) to achieve territorial gains and attrit UAF forces. They aim to degrade Ukrainian critical infrastructure (energy, railways) through persistent aerial attacks. RF intends to continue robust information warfare to sow discord, demoralize UAF, and undermine international support. They will leverage geopolitical events and Western internal divisions for IO. RF also intends to protect its internal security and project an strong image of stability. The continuation of large-scale military exercises (Zapad-2025, Laros 2025) indicates intent for sustained long-term military readiness and projection of power. RF intends to continue targeting UAF heavy artillery, as evidenced by the Konstantinovka M109A5 strike. RF appears to be increasing pressure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, as claimed by Воин DV. RF intends to project internal unity and strong leadership (MoD Russia's "Top News Today"). Russia's challenge to the ICAO decision on MH17 at the ICJ indicates an intention to continue challenging international legal frameworks and deny accountability. The "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition indicates an intent to sustain public support and morale for the conflict. RF's new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast signals an intention to increase aerial pressure on northern Ukraine. RF will continue to leverage historical narratives, as reported in the new message "Two majors", to promote national unity and justify current actions. RF intends to sustain and potentially escalate aerial pressure on Kyiv, likely as a retaliatory measure for the Salavat deep strike, and to inflict psychological impact and further degrade air defense systems. The ongoing drone attack on Kyiv confirms this immediate intention. RF intends to maintain its long-term naval modernization program (Project 12418 missile boats). RF intends to circumvent Western financial sanctions through cooperation with China (independent depository). RF will continue to leverage international forums and IO (IAEA abstentions, MI6 darknet portal, derisive comments about Kyiv attacks) to project international support, demonize Western intelligence, and demoralize Ukrainians. RF intends to develop and implement social support programs (e.g., increased maternity capital) to project state care and domestic stability, aiming to bolster long-term internal stability amidst the conflict. RF intends to maintain its counter-UAV capabilities and operations against Ukrainian drones. RF intends to maintain and enhance its control over the domestic information environment and communications, likely to counter internal dissent and foreign influence, as indicated by Roskomnadror's actions. RF intends to continue pursuing and prosecuting individuals it deems responsible for internal "terrorist" acts, as seen in the General Kirillov murder case. RF intends to shape international perceptions of the conflict's duration and resolution, leveraging Western political dynamics, as expressed in the Vodolatsky interview. RF intends to continue challenging international legal decisions, as seen in their appeal against the MH17 ruling at the UN Court. RF intends to continue showcasing its strategic naval and missile capabilities through exercises. RF's daily "Chronicle of the SMO" by Рыбарь confirms their intention to maintain a consistent narrative regarding ongoing operations. RF intends to leverage any perceived vulnerabilities in the Netherlands' refugee policy to further its IO goals, portraying a lack of Western unity or support for Ukraine. RF intends to frame NATO as an aggressor, as seen in the Ambassador's comments regarding Bornholm. RF intends to exploit the perception of UAF abandoning NATO weapons to demoralize UAF forces and boost RF morale. RF intends to demonstrate control over annexed territories and project defensive capability, as seen in the RF Air Defense reports from Crimea. RF intends to maintain a consistent narrative of providing essential supplies to its frontline units, as seen in the "Военкоры Русской Весны" videos. RF intends to engage in psychological warfare and attrition against UAF personnel by deploying booby traps, as described by the RF demining group commander. RF intends to continue using high-volume drone attacks, as demonstrated by the overnight assault on Pavlohrad, to overwhelm UAF air defenses and strike infrastructure. RF intends to press ground assaults in Volchansk, likely seeking to attrit UAF forces and secure localized gains, employing incendiary munitions. RF intends to inflict civilian casualties through precision strikes, as evidenced by the attack on the Stepnohirsk community. RF intends to use social welfare policies (e.g., family capital) to bolster domestic support and project state care. RF intends to leverage the US veto on the Gaza ceasefire to portray US diplomatic isolation and hypocrisy. RF intends to showcase its military industrial complex capabilities by announcing new SAM system deliveries. RF intends to maintain the current regulatory framework for cryptocurrency mining, signaling a degree of internal economic stability. RF intends to control information access during mobile network restrictions, reinforcing state control and security. RF intends to project air superiority through drone operations, as claimed by "Rubikon." RF intends to portray UAF as aggressive by reporting civilian casualties from drone strikes in Belgorod. RF intends to monitor and comment on broader geopolitical events, such as a possible US invasion of Venezuela, to demonstrate its global awareness and influence. RF intends to encircle Siversk by conducting battles in Vyemka and Pereyizne. RF intends to continue offensive operations in Novopetrovske (Ternove) area despite encountering heavy UAF defenses, indicating persistence in achieving territorial gains. RF intends to leverage foreign military technology developments (Japan's railgun test) for strategic advantage in its military-industrial complex and future warfare planning. (Colonelcassad) RF intends to further control domestic information, as seen by potential restrictions on roaming SIM cards. (ТАСС) RF intends to promote traditional social values through policy proposals like banning contraceptives for married couples. (Новости Москвы) RF intends to exploit ongoing combat in Novoyekonomichne, Donetsk Oblast, to project military progress. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦) RF intends to continue discussions and planning for additional EU sanctions packages. (ТАСС) RF intends to project internal security success (e.g., cocaine interception). (ТАСС) RF intends to use internal social control mechanisms (e.g., fines for 'insulting' words). (Новости Москвы) RF intends to use "gamification" narratives for military actions (БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС) for internal consumption. (Оперативний ЗСУ) RF intends to project military control over UAF logistics around Krasnoarmeysk. (ТАСС) RF intends to strike Ukrainian WPK facilities, as claimed in Pavlohrad. (Военкор Котенок)
• NEW: RF intends to deny violations of European airspace by its UAVs, using this as an IO tactic to discredit accusations and frame efforts to hold them accountable as attempts to disrupt peace. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF intends to highlight UAF command failures, as seen in the claim about the 11th Border Detachment commander, to demoralize UAF and undermine trust in its leadership. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF intends to project an image of internal stability and care for its populace through statements about improving doctors' salaries and preventing electricity deficits. (FACT, RF REPORT/IO)
• NEW: RF will leverage reports of children with cancer being transported within Russia to project state care and normalcy. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF intends to project normalcy and international engagement through high-level diplomatic discussions (Lavrov). (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF intends to deflect from the war and project normalcy through promoting civilian cultural events. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF intends to downplay the impact of sanctions by showcasing the availability of Western consumer goods in Russia. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF intends to continue efforts to develop and improve its electronic warfare capabilities. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• NEW: RF intends to use cyberattacks against critical infrastructure and potentially military targets. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• NEW: RF intends to address minefield challenges through the deployment of specialized mine clearance robots. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• NEW: RF intends to maintain control over educational content, as suggested by proposals to exclude "complex topics" from the school curriculum, to shape public opinion and reduce potential dissent. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF intends to highlight perceived UAF military setbacks (e.g., Volchansk) to boost RF morale. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF intends to maintain control over claimed newly occupied territories, as evidenced by lethal raids in Kozachi Laheri to suppress local resistance or extract information. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• NEW: RF intends to project an image of return to normalcy and economic activity by reopening previously closed infrastructure, such as the Krasnodar airport. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• NEW: RF intends to exploit internal UAF command changes for IO purposes, as seen with the 47th Brigade. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF intends to consolidate control over newly seized settlements like Novoiivanivka and use them as staging grounds for further advances. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• NEW: RF intends to use legal and political channels (Medvedev's statement) to aggressively counter European efforts to hold them accountable for war damages. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• Courses of Action (Confidence: HIGH):
  • Ground: Sustained ground offensives on Kupiansk-Lyman, Southern Donetsk (Novoivanovka), Pokrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia (Kamyanske, Plavni) axes, with attempts at localized encirclements and urban combat. Continued use of combined arms, FPV drones, and possibly unconventional infiltration tactics. Counter-DRG operations (e.g., against "Baba Yaga" drones) will continue. The use of a former UAF officer to command the Kupiansk assault suggests an intent to exploit specific knowledge of UAF defenses and vulnerabilities. RF claims of advances near Kucherovka and Petropavlovka in the Kupiansk sector indicate an immediate continuation of localized ground offensives. Concurrently, RF will intensify ground operations in Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, utilizing incendiary munitions and drone support against UAF infantry. RF will push for a rapid breakthrough or envelopment of Yampil, DNR, capitalizing on claimed initial entry. RF will also continue to utilize mine warfare and booby traps, as reported in Zaporizhzhia, to inflict casualties and psychological impact on UAF ground forces. RF SOF units will continue localized operations to destroy UAF militants, as claimed on the Vremevsky direction. RF will continue battles in Vyemka and Pereyizne to encircle Siversk. RF will persist in offensive operations in Novopetrovske (Ternove), utilizing drones and small group infiltration tactics, despite minefields and anti-tank ditches. Localized advances on targets like Novonikolaevka, Malaya Tokmachka, Otradnoye, and in Dnipropetrovsk/Eastern Zaporizhzhia will persist to stretch UAF defenses. Precision MLRS strikes will continue on UAF positions, with a continued willingness to use guided aerial bombs on civilian targets (e.g., Konstantinovka). RF forces from "Zapad-2025" may be redeployed to active combat zones, potentially including the Kyiv axis, as implied by Janus Putkonen. Aggressive recruitment with high financial incentives will be sustained to back these operations. RF will also continue to enhance C2 networks in key offensive areas (e.g., Krasnoarmeysk direction). Putin's statements on over 700k personnel on the line of contact, though possibly inflated, suggest a high readiness to commit manpower. RF Army Aviation (Ka-52m) will continue to provide direct fire support to ground operations in relevant sectors (MoD Russia). RF will continue to leverage controversial recruitment methods (e.g., pardoned criminals, foreign nationals) to sustain manpower for these offensives (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, ТАСС). Cluster Iskander strikes against UAF company tactical groups (Druzhkivka) indicate an ongoing intent to target UAF troop concentrations. Deployment of foreign mercenary personnel (e.g., Cubans) will continue to supplement RF ground forces (Николаевский Ванёк). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming strikes on UAF positions on the Donetsk direction, indicating continued localized ground offensive support. Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming "Akhmat" special forces successfully used a KVN drone to strike a UAF pickup truck with infantry in a wooded area on the Kharkiv direction, claiming "3 dead fighters," directly indicating ground offensive actions supported by precision UAVs. Воин DV posts video detailing renewed artillery strikes and attacks on enemy personnel in the Polozhskoye direction, demonstrating continued offensive operations. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo of a tactical map implying RF claims of significant territorial control or advances in Kupiansk, supporting the likelihood of continued ground offensives. Despite "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reporting a "difficult period," RF ground offensives are likely to continue, with emphasis on using "evacuation" leaflets in Sumy Oblast (Velyka Pysarivka) as a psychological operation possibly preceding or accompanying ground incursions in border regions. Военкор Котенок's report on a deficit of medics suggests RF is facing sustainment strain for prolonged offensives, which could present an opportunity for UAF. The General Staff reports from UAF indicate significant RF ground engagement across multiple axes. RF will intensify counter-DRG operations (e.g., against UAF "Baba Yaga" drone groups on the Dnieper) to protect their positions and logistical routes. RF Wagner Group personnel training Belarusian forces indicates an intent to increase readiness and potentially integrate these forces into future operations. The "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition promotes a narrative of heroism to support ongoing ground operations. The appointment of a former UAF officer to command the Kupiansk offensive suggests a deliberate strategy to leverage insider knowledge for potential breakthroughs. Military police of the Western Group of Forces providing assistance to farmers in LNR (Colonelcassad) indicates continued RF presence and attempts to stabilize occupied territories while freeing up other units for combat. RF will leverage IO (TASS claims) about UAF abandoning NATO weapons to reinforce narratives of UAF tactical setbacks and demoralization. TASS claims of advances at Kucherovka and Petropavlovka are immediate indicators of continued localized ground offensives. The "Два майора" video from Nesterianka, showing intense UAF artillery and drone attacks on RF positions, indicates a high level of reciprocal ground activity. TASS claims of RF SOF destroying UAF militants on the Vremevsky direction indicate continued RF ground operations with specialized units. RF will also continue to utilize mine warfare and booby traps, as reported in Zaporizhzhia, to inflict casualties and psychological impact on UAF ground forces, requiring UAF to commit demining resources. RF will continue to apply pressure in Novoyekonomichne, Donetsk Oblast, as evidenced by ongoing artillery/missile strikes and fires. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦) RF will seek to take full fire control of UAF logistics around Krasnoarmeysk, as claimed by Kimakovsky. (ТАСС) RF will continue to provide air cover for ground assault groups using drones to counter UAF heavy copters. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)
  • NEW: RF will continue FPV drone attacks, resulting in UAF casualties, as seen in the Primorske attack. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
  • NEW: RF will intensify operations in Novoiivanivka, aiming to consolidate control as claimed by "Vostok" group and further by "Два майора." (FACT, RF CLAIM)
  • NEW: RF will attempt to advance in Zarichne, Krasnolimanskoe direction. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
  • NEW: RF will amplify claims of UAF battalions losing combat effectiveness in Volchansk (Kharkiv Oblast) to demoralize UAF. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
  • NEW: RF forces will continue brutalizing civilians in occupied areas, as demonstrated by lethal raids in Kozachi Laheri. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
  • Aerial: High-volume drone and missile attacks targeting critical infrastructure, particularly energy and railway networks, with a continued willingness to use guided aerial bombs on civilian targets (e.g., Konstantinovka). Expect retaliatory strikes for UAF deep strikes. Continued drone activity towards Pavlohrad, and now, significantly, increased drone threats to Kyiv from Chernihiv and Bryansk Oblasts. The newly reported Shahed launch facility in Bryansk Oblast indicates a potential for increased drone volume and shorter flight times to northern Ukraine. The immediate high-volume drone attack against Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast has just concluded. While the immediate aerial threat to Kyiv has passed, the persistent pattern of high-volume drone and missile attacks dictates that RF will likely launch another large-scale aerial campaign within 24-48 hours, targeting critical infrastructure across Ukraine, potentially including Kyiv again. RF will continue FPV drone operations, including anti-UAV missions, in contested airspace. RF will continue targeted drone attacks on cities like Pavlohrad, likely to degrade air defenses and disrupt logistical hubs. RF will continue to project air defense successes over annexed territories, such as Crimea, to reassure its population and demonstrate control. RF will continue aerial attacks causing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, as seen in the latest reports. RF will seek to disrupt payment systems in Kyiv public transport through aerial attacks. RF will deploy new Pantsir-SMD SAM systems to enhance its air defense, particularly against UAF drones and missiles, and potentially in forward combat zones. RF will conduct drone reconnaissance and surveillance missions, as observed with the "Rubikon" (Lekka-100) drone, particularly over agricultural areas. RF will continue to launch drone strikes into Belgorod Oblast, risking civilian casualties, potentially as a retaliatory measure or to assert control over border regions. RF will continue to launch multi-directional drone attacks in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, as indicated by recent UAF Air Force warnings. RF will continue to target Ukrainian military-industrial complex (WPK) sites, as claimed in Pavlohrad. (Военкор Котенок)
  • NEW: RF will continue to use reconnaissance UAVs near Zaporizhzhia and in the northeast of the oblast, likely as spotters for further strikes. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
  • NEW: RF will continue КАБ launches towards Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk (Synelnykivskyi district) oblasts. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
  • NEW: RF will continue drone strikes in Sumy Oblast, potentially using UAVs as spotters for other attack means. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
  • NEW: RF will continue drone attacks in Poltava Oblast. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
  • NEW: RF will continue drone attacks in Belgorod Oblast, resulting in civilian casualties. (FACT, RF REPORT)
  • Hybrid/IO: Intensified disinformation campaigns focusing on UAF disorganization, corruption, and internal divisions (e.g., the alleged GUR vs. President's Office conflict, the former UAF brigadier general commanding the Kupiansk assault). Amplification of RF internal security successes and alleged UAF atrocities. Leveraging any Western political statements or domestic issues to sow discord. RF will actively attempt to discredit UAF external support by claiming internal corruption or illicit dealings (e.g., Rostec servicing UAF helicopters). They will continue to challenge international legal decisions (e.g., MH17) to undermine international consensus against them. RF will leverage high-level personnel changes (Kozak's dismissal) to project an image of effective governance and adapt its internal narratives. RF IO will continue to monitor and leverage international political statements (e.g., Trump's comments on TikTok, China, and ceasefire, Taiwan aid) to shape global perceptions. RF will also leverage internal economic news (e.g., budget forecasts) to project stability, and portray Western economies as facing crisis (e.g., Business Insider report). The "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition is an ongoing IO effort to reinforce patriotism and military heroism. RF IO will continue to promote the rehabilitation of historical figures like Stalin to unify narratives. RF will use ambiguous or pre-emptive messaging (e.g., "Timely Terrorist Attack" video) to create confusion or prepare for false flag operations. RF will continue to attempt to distract from the conflict by promoting narratives of normalcy within Russia (e.g., iPhone launch, S7 uniforms). RF will amplify any Western statements (e.g., Trump's "no ceasefire" stance) that appear to align with RF's position of strength. RF will also use external geopolitical developments (e.g., Turkey's interest in BRICS/ASEAN) to project a shifting global alignment away from Western dominance. RF IO is attempting to create alternative narratives (e.g., "boat with 60 drug addicts" by Рыбарь) to distract or misdirect from current events, potentially attempting to counter UAF successes or deflect from RF military actions. RF diplomatic channels are open for discussion with the US regarding diplomatic missions, implying an intention to maintain low-level communication despite military conflict. RF IO will continue to promote narratives of international support for Russia (IAEA abstentions) and portray Western intelligence as aggressive (MI6 darknet portal). RF IO will proactively promote social welfare initiatives (e.g., increased maternity capital) to project state care and domestic stability, aiming to bolster public trust and support for the government and its policies, including the war effort. RF IO will also promote internal narratives regarding military and civilian salary disparities, portraying UAF personnel as potentially exploited or facing significant psychological tolls (Операция Z message). RF will continue to undermine international support for Ukraine, as seen in the TASS claim of UAF abandoning NATO weapons in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Roskomnadzor's actions to block fraudulent SIM cards will be leveraged by RF IO to project effective internal security and control over digital communications. RF IO will intensify narratives around internal security and "terrorism," leveraging cases like the General Kirillov murder to justify state actions and portray Ukraine as a source of instability. RF IO will actively use statements from figures like Vodolatsky to shape narratives about the conflict's duration and resolution, specifically linking it to Western political developments (e.g., US elections) to manage expectations and maintain domestic support for a protracted conflict. RF will continue its legal challenges against international decisions (MH17 appeal) to undermine international consensus and deny accountability. Colonelcassad's video showcasing China's robot dog firing an RPG, while not RF action, presents a powerful visual that RF IO could leverage to promote the idea of rapid technological advancement by its allies or potential future threats to UAF, serving as psychological warfare. RF IO will leverage Trump's alleged refusal of military aid to Taiwan for a deal with China to highlight perceived US geopolitical shifts and potential weakening of US alliances (РБК-Україна). ТАСС's video on the captured Croatian citizen from UAF will be extensively used for IO, focusing on foreign national involvement and UAF disorganization. Рыбарь posts a daily situation summary, "Chronicle of the SMO for September 18," indicating continued structured RF information dissemination.
  • NEW: RF will use Maria Zakharova to deflect European accusations of airspace violations by RF UAVs, attempting to frame them as attempts to sabotage peace. (FACT, RF IO)
  • NEW: RF will amplify claims of UAF command failures (e.g., 11th Border Detachment commander) to undermine UAF morale and sow distrust. (FACT, RF IO)
  • NEW: RF will leverage internal economic statements (e.g., cryptocurrency mining ban proposals, doctor salary increases) to project stability and good governance. (FACT, RF REPORT/IO)
  • NEW: RF will exploit any available content, even civilian traffic accidents (Zhytomyr), for IO if it can be framed to portray instability or negative developments in Ukraine, though the direct military relevance is low. (JUDGEMENT)
  • NEW: RF will utilize geopolitical events (e.g., Taliban directives in Afghanistan) to distract or draw parallels to perceived Western failures in other regions, rather than direct military relevance. (FACT, RF IO)
  • NEW: RF will promote its international military cooperation (e.g., Laros 2025 with Laos) to project global influence and support. (FACT, RF REPORT)
  • NEW: RF will continue efforts to project internal normalcy and stability, as seen with product recalls (Geely Emgrand). (FACT, RF REPORT)
  • NEW: RF will leverage reports of children with cancer being transported within Russia to project state care and normalcy. (FACT, RF IO)
  • NEW: RF will promote discussions led by Sergey Lavrov at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Business Council to project normalcy and international engagement. (FACT, RF IO)
  • NEW: RF will promote civilian cultural events (e.g., giant vegetable festival in Moscow) to distract from the war and project normalcy. (FACT, RF IO)
  • NEW: RF will leverage the Pulkovo airport cyberattack to either blame UAF (unlikely without direct evidence, but possible implication) or to project RF's own vulnerability and need for robust cyber defenses. (FACT, RF REPORT, JUDGEMENT)
  • NEW: RF will exploit reports of Ukrainian refugees in Russia inhabiting the apartment of a "traitor" to create narratives of justice and internal stability. (FACT, RF IO)
  • NEW: RF will attempt to downplay the impact of sanctions by showcasing the availability of Western products like iPhones in Russia. (FACT, RF IO)
  • NEW: RF will attempt to deflect from internal issues (e.g., military deaths caused by comrades) to maintain morale and cohesion. (FACT, RF IO)
  • NEW: RF will leverage reports about "reducing product packaging weight" as a sign of economic adaptation and efficiency rather than economic strain. (FACT, RF IO)
  • NEW: RF IO will focus on discrediting the EU's proposed "wall of drones" along its eastern border, attempting to portray it as an aggressive or ineffective measure. (FACT, RF IO via Рыбарь)
  • NEW: RF IO will continue to emphasize perceived UAF military setbacks (e.g., Volchansk) to boost RF morale. (FACT, RF IO)
  • NEW: RF IO will use reports of their mine clearance robots to project technological advancement and commitment to demining. (FACT, RF REPORT/IO)
  • NEW: RF IO will leverage changes to the school curriculum (e.g., excluding "complex topics") to project an image of improving the education system, while subtly enabling easier information control. (FACT, RF IO)
  • NEW: RF IO will continue to leverage the narrative of a "special military operation" (SMO) to frame the conflict, as evidenced by Рыбарь's regular "Chronicle of the SMO." (FACT, RF IO)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (Confidence: HIGH):

• UAF maintains a generally defensive posture but is capable of localized counter-offensives (e.g., Pankivka, Zarichne, Dobropillya-Pokrovsk sector, Tendra Spit naval operation). Readiness is high across key axes, demonstrated by repelling numerous RF assaults. Units like the 77th Airmobile Brigade, 6th Azov Battalion, 1st Assault Regiment, "Shadow" unit, STRIKS unit, Mykolaiv marines' "VARTOVI" battalion, 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds", and GUR special forces on Tendra Spit are actively engaged and demonstrating effectiveness.
• UAF is actively integrating tactical drones (FPV, thermal) for ISR, precision strikes, and night operations, with a significant scale-up anticipated (1000 interceptor drones daily). Ukraine is also increasing domestic missile production, with 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month, aiming for 7 daily. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast is actively building anti-drone tunnels to protect logistics, indicating an adaptive defensive posture.
• Personnel mobilization and welfare are ongoing priorities, with efforts to combat corruption within the TCC system and support for POW/MIA families and mental health services. UAF is actively training new personnel, as evidenced by military institute cadets completing basic combined-arms training.
• Strategic deep strike capability has been demonstrated against the Salavat petrochemical complex, extending UAF's operational reach.
• UAF maintains vigilance against RF's international legal maneuvers, as evidenced by monitoring Russia's challenge to the MH17 decision.
• UAF Air Defense is actively engaged in defending Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast against an ongoing RF drone attack, demonstrating high readiness and effectiveness. UAF Air Defense successfully repelled the recent drone attack on Kyiv, neutralizing incoming UAVs, as confirmed by all-clear reports and preliminary damage assessments (ASTRA, КМВА, РБК-Україна). This demonstrates sustained high readiness and effective tactical control.
• High-level diplomatic engagement with NATO, as evidenced by the meeting between Rustem Umierov and Patrick Turner, confirms a robust commitment to securing Ukraine's long-term security guarantees and integration into Western defense structures.
• UAF continues to acquire specialized equipment, such as drone detection technology, through public support.
• NEW: UAF forces in Zaporizhzhia Oblast are actively countering RF reconnaissance UAVs. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• NEW: UAF GUR "Viking" unit continues to conduct effective special operations, as evidenced by the raid on Tendra Spit. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• NEW: UAF drone units, such as the 414th Brigade "Madjar's Birds," maintain high proficiency in precision strikes against RF ground personnel, as seen near Pokrovsk. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• NEW: UAF forces demonstrate effective drone-directed artillery capabilities, as shown near Konstantinovka - Oleksandro-Shultyno. (FACT, UAF-ALIGNED REPORT)
• NEW: UAF's command structure is engaging in high-level meetings (Zelenskyy meeting with Navrotsky). (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• NEW: UAF Prosecutor's Offices are actively combating corruption, as seen in Vinnytsia, reinforcing internal integrity. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• NEW: UAF medical services demonstrate high capability and dedication, as evidenced by the complex surgery on the Azovstal defender. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• NEW: UAF's defense readiness is continuously bolstered by public donations for FPV drones and other equipment. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• NEW: UAF remains vigilant about the heating season, indicating strategic planning for winter operations. (FACT, UAF REPORT)

Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes:
  • Successful UAF counter-offensive in the Dobropillya-Pokrovsk area, liberating 160 sq km and 7 settlements, and inflicting significant RF casualties (100 POWs, 2500+ casualties).
  • Successful deep strike on the Salavat petrochemical complex in Bashkortostan.
  • Successful defense against RF "pincer" maneuver near Dobropillya by the 1st Assault Regiment.
  • Repelling numerous RF assaults on Kramatorsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Kherson, Kursk, and North Slobozhansky directions. UAF General Staff reports repelling 10 enemy assaults in the Southern Slobozhansky direction, 8 in the Orikhiv direction, and 1 in the Kherson direction.
  • Destruction of an RF Buk-M2 SAM system by the 15th Separate Artillery Reconnaissance Brigade "Black Forest."
  • Successful FPV drone strikes by various units (Azov, Shadow, STRIKS, 1st Assault Battalion, Mykolaiv marines, 414th UAV Brigade) on RF personnel, positions, and equipment. The new Операция Z video from Zaporizhzhia showcasing UAF drone strikes on RF equipment reinforces this. The "Два майора" video, while posted by RF, visually confirms intense UAF artillery and drone activity against RF positions in Nesterianka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating effective UAF localized offensive/defensive capabilities.
  • Successful internal security operations: detention of Novinsky (RPC curator), SBU detention of RF agent, exposure of corruption in military medical commissions. NEW: Detention of a former military unit commander in Dnipro for organizing desertion schemes. NEW: Vinnytsia Prosecutor's Office uncovering 30M UAH in embezzlement schemes.
  • Confirmation of first US PURL weapons delivery.
  • Successful body exchange, returning 1000 fallen servicemen. NEW: An additional 1000 bodies of Ukrainians were returned.
  • Successful air defense against drone attacks on Pavlohrad. NEW: 3 Shahed UAVs destroyed in the Southern operational zone.
  • Increased domestic missile production of "Flamingo" missiles.
  • Continued high-level engagement with NATO on security guarantees.
  • UAF Air Defense successfully neutralized the latest RF drone attack on Kyiv, with preliminary reports indicating all incoming UAVs were shot down. Damage to the trolleybus network in Shevchenkivskyi district was caused by falling debris from a downed UAV (ASTRA). This represents a tactical success in defending the capital from direct drone impacts. A UAV was shot down over Kyiv overnight, with debris falling in multiple locations, as confirmed by KMVA, indicating continued effective air defense. UAF reported neutralizing an additional 1150 RF personnel in the last 24 hours. UAF successfully shot down 71 of 86 RF UAVs launched overnight, with 48 previously reported, meaning 23 new successful interceptions, maintaining a high interception rate. UAF secured an IAEA resolution calling for RF to return control of the Zaporizhzhia NPP. Kryvyi Rih remains controlled by UAF forces. UAF secured 8 million UAH in donations, demonstrating strong public support. The EU's planned rejection of Russian LNG is a diplomatic success for Ukraine. UAF SSO conducted a successful deep strike against an RF logistics hub in Kursk Oblast. Discovery of an unexploded UAV in Kyiv's Shevchenkivskyi district indicates successful interception and prevention of detonation. UAF FPV interceptor pilots (71st Separate Jaeger Brigade) are proving effective in reconnaissance and striking enemy targets.
  • Civilian resilience in Kherson region demonstrated by agricultural activity amidst conflict.
  • UAF GUR naval operation on Tendra Spit, destroying an RF landing craft. NEW: UAF GUR "Viking" unit landed and mined Tendra Spit overnight, demonstrating continued special forces projection and territorial denial operations, and destroying an RF "Vityaz" transporter.
  • 425th Regiment "Skelya" captured 17 POWs on Pokrovsk and Lyman directions.
  • UAF F-16 claim of shooting down a Shahed-136, if verified, would be a significant tactical air-to-air victory and an operational milestone for F-16 integration.
  • NEW: UAF drone strike on an RF vehicle by Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
  • NEW: UAF drone-directed artillery strikes on RF positions near Konstantinovka-Oleksandro-Shultyno. (FACT, UAF-ALIGNED REPORT)
  • NEW: 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" destroying 8 RF assault troops near Pokrovsk. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
  • NEW: Successful detection and counter-action against an RF UAV approaching Sumy (UAF Air Force). (FACT, UAF REPORT)
  • NEW: Successful medical operation removing a bullet from an Azovstal defender's heart in Kyiv. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
  • NEW: Successful procurement of 370 FPV drones, including 40 Shahed interceptors, via public donations. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Setbacks:
  • Sustained heavy RF pressure on multiple axes (Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia), forcing UAF to commit new groups. UAF General Staff reports 70 combat engagements over the past day, indicating continued heavy pressure.
  • Lethal RF guided aerial bomb strike on Konstantinovka residential area (5 killed, 19 injured), and drone strikes on civilian infrastructure across multiple oblasts. RF aerial attacks on Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, including injury to a 74-year-old in Stepnohirsk and disruptions in Kyiv public transport payment systems, represent continued setbacks for civilian protection and infrastructure.
  • Ongoing issues with corruption in mobilization system (military medical commissions). NEW: Internal UAF corruption, as evidenced by the detention of a former military commander in Dnipro for desertion schemes.
  • Russian forces reportedly entering and consolidating in residential areas of Kupiansk (Deep State amplified by RF). NEW: RF launches КАБ towards Kupiansk community, indicating continued pressure and potential advances.
  • Reports of an RF FPV drone and artillery strike destroying a UAF M109A5 howitzer near Konstantinovka (Colonelcassad).
  • Reports of RF ground activity by "CENTER" and "VOSTOK" groups in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Воин DV).
  • Continued heavy RF aerial activity, including threats to Kyiv from Chernihiv and potentially the newly identified Bryansk launch site. Damage to the trolleybus network in Shevchenkivskyi district due to falling drone debris can be considered a minor localized setback, indicating that while direct impacts were averted, the defensive actions themselves can cause collateral damage. NEW: RF launches КАБ towards Novomykolaivka, Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued air-to-ground threats. RF claims "Geran" (Shahed) drone strikes in Konotop (Sumy Oblast). New RF drone groups detected heading towards Chernihiv.
  • Reports (unverified RF IO) of UAF forces abandoning NATO weapons in Zaporizhzhia Oblast during retreat, if true, would represent a tactical setback in terms of equipment retention and troop morale. TASS claims RF forces advanced near Kucherovka and Petropavlovka, clearing a tree line and destroying a UAF fortified area, which, if verified, would represent a localized setback for UAF in the Kupiansk sector. The RF claim of entering Yampil, DNR, if verified, represents a significant localized territorial setback. RF's mine warfare tactics in Zaporizhzhia Oblast pose a persistent threat to UAF assault teams. RF successfully conducted a mass drone attack on Pavlohrad. RF ground forces using incendiary munitions against UAF infantry in Volchansk poses a significant tactical challenge and risk of further casualties. RF SOF operations on the Vremevsky direction also pose a threat to UAF personnel. RF drone strikes resulted in two injuries in Belgorod Oblast. RF claims of intense fighting in Vyemka and Pereyizne, and encirclement of Siversk, pose a potential significant setback if true. UAF air defense successfully mitigated a significant portion of the RF drone attack, but 15 UAVs still penetrated, indicating some vulnerability, and a new group of drones is airborne. (РБК-Україна) An attack on a Russian radar station in annexed Crimea, injuring two servicemen, while a success for UAF, resulted in injuries to RF personnel, which can be seen as a setback for RF, not UAF. (ASTRA)
  • Explosion in Chernihiv. (РБК-Україна)
  • 7 shellings by RF on civilian settlements in the Southern operational zone. (Сили оборони Півдня України)
  • UAF casualties implied by graphic images from Novoyvanovka (Воин DV).
  • RF claims of full fire control over UAF logistics around Krasnoarmeysk (ТАСС), if verified, would significantly hamper UAF operations.
  • RF claims of hitting WPK targets in Pavlohrad (Военкор Котенок), if verified, would represent a significant setback for Ukrainian defense industry.
  • NEW: One UAF casualty from an FPV drone attack in Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
  • NEW: STERNENKO reporting slightly lower donations than yesterday indicates a minor setback in immediate public fundraising for military needs. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
  • NEW: The RF claim of a UAF battalion in eastern Volchansk losing combat effectiveness, if verified, represents a tactical setback in Kharkiv Oblast. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
  • NEW: RF forces conducting lethal raids in occupied Kozachi Laheri, resulting in three civilian deaths, represents a severe setback for humanitarian protection and UAF's ability to protect civilians in occupied areas. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
  • NEW: RF claims of taking full control of Novoiivanivka and consolidating positions (Два майора, Colonelcassad) represent a localized territorial setback for UAF in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, if confirmed.
  • NEW: RF IO (Операция Z) claims a change of commander for UAF 47th Brigade, potentially indicating perceived instability or challenges within UAF command. (FACT, RF CLAIM, LIKELY ACCURATE)
• Resource Requirements and Constraints:
  • Requirements: Continued air defense assets (especially counter-UAV and anti-glide bomb capabilities), advanced ISR platforms, FPV drones, artillery ammunition, and medical supplies (given reported RF medical deficit). Sustainment of international military and financial aid, including Javelin missiles for Poland, which indirectly strengthens NATO's eastern flank. Continued increase in domestic missile production. Proactive proposals to the US for drone and weapon agreements (Zelenskyy). The construction of anti-drone tunnels in Zaporizhzhia highlights an urgent requirement for specialized engineering and materials to protect logistics, potentially diverting resources. Continued procurement of drone detection equipment. Continued support for anti-corruption efforts within military and civilian structures. Sustained public donations for military needs. Proactive humanitarian aid and protection for civilians in occupied territories and near frontlines.
  • Constraints: High operational tempo and persistent RF aerial attacks place a strain on air defense resources. Manpower constraints necessitate efficient recruitment and retention strategies. The ongoing threat of cyberattacks demands robust cyber defense. The reported corruption in military medical commissions highlights a constraint on effective personnel mobilization. The ongoing drone attack on Kyiv underscores the continuous high demand for air defense munitions and operational capacity, potentially constraining resources for other sectors. The need for rapid damage assessment and repair of urban infrastructure (e.g., trolleybus network, Kyiv public transport payment systems) following drone attacks adds a minor but ongoing constraint on civilian resources and potentially sums some military-technical support. RF's mine warfare tactics further constrain UAF movement and require specialized demining resources. The detention of a former military commander for desertion schemes indicates ongoing internal challenges in maintaining military discipline and strength. (Офіс Генерального прокурора) The ongoing need for meetings with POW/MIA families highlights the continuing human cost and the significant demand for support services. (Координаційний штаб) The Netherlands' potential exclusion of Ukrainian male refugees from housing could impact future mobilization efforts and place an additional burden on social support systems within Ukraine. (РБК-Україна)
  • NEW: The ongoing need for public donations (STERNENKO) highlights resource constraints, even with international aid. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
  • NEW: The upcoming heating season (РБК-Україна) poses a critical energy security constraint, requiring proactive planning and resource allocation to prevent widespread outages amidst RF attacks. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
  • NEW: The continuous flow of RF targets across mined fields, as depicted by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, requires UAF to maintain significant mine-laying and defensive obstacle capabilities, placing a constraint on resources for other offensive operations. (FACT, UAF REPORT)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (Confidence: HIGH):

• RF Narratives: RF is actively attempting to discredit UAF's counter-offensive success in Donetsk, downplay its own losses, and amplify any perceived UAF setbacks or disorganization. They are aggressively using the Konstantinovka civilian casualties and the 1000:24 body exchange ratio (highly exaggerated) to paint a picture of UAF failure and RF military prowess. RF IO is leveraging Trump's statements to sow confusion and portray Western disunity on Ukraine support, particularly his "Putin let me down" and "terrible relations between Putin and Zelenskyy" comments. They are attempting to link rising antisemitism in Europe to broader societal decay (Flensburg incident) to deflect from their own actions. RF is also using narratives of internal RF stability and normalcy (Kamchatka earthquake, civilian fundraising efforts for armor) to mask the impact of the war. They actively promote their military technology and manpower. RF will use the US Gaza ceasefire veto to portray the US as hypocritical. Alex Parker Returns's claim of Rostec structures servicing UAF helicopters is a new, subtle IO attempt to sow distrust and imply corruption or collaboration. Colonelcassad's video of UAF DRG destruction aims to project RF defensive successes and UAF losses. Colonelcassad's promotion of Wagner training in Belarus aims to enhance the image of RF military capability and expertise. RF continues to challenge international decisions (MH17) to portray itself as a victim of international bias. MoD Russia's "Top News Today" serves as a general IO effort to control the daily narrative. The ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ channel's complaints about a low-participation fundraising marathon might inadvertently reveal internal strains within some pro-RF volunteer networks, but is framed as a call for more support. ТАСС reports Putin released Kozak from his position as Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration. RF IO will likely frame this as a routine or positive administrative change to reinforce an image of strong, decisive leadership. Alex Parker Returns's post on "contributions from restaurant checks for SVO needs" is an IO effort to promote public support for the war, while also subtly criticizing perceived resource allocation disparities, possibly aimed at internal dissent. Новости Москвы's video about S7 Airlines' new uniforms and TASS's report on Trump's TikTok statements are examples of RF IO attempting to project normalcy, economic stability, and engagement with international issues unrelated to the conflict, as a distraction. Colonelcassad posts a photo message quoting Trump saying it is "not the time to ask Putin for a ceasefire," which RF IO will amplify to project RF strength and an unwavering stance. Minister of Finance Siluanov's statement on an expected 12-13% key rate for the 2026 budget indicates continued focus on economic stability messaging. Операция Z amplifies a Business Insider report predicting a world crisis in 2026, which RF IO will likely leverage to portray Western economic instability. Colonelcassad posts videos and images from the "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition, promoting RF military heroism and displaying destroyed enemy equipment (unattributed to specific units). "Военкоры Русской Весны" (amplified by Операция Z) claims a former UAF officer who defected in 2014 is commanding the Russian offensive on Kupiansk, a narrative that RF will leverage to sow discord within UAF. RF IO is actively disseminating content (Операция Z) that claims "shooting and explosions" in Kyiv, aiming to amplify the psychological impact of the drone attack and generate panic or demoralization among the Ukrainian population. Рыбарь's recent message (🇺🇸🇻🇪Вы думаете, это реально оказалась по итогу лодка с 60-тью наркосами?) could be a diversionary tactic to draw attention away from the Kyiv attack and other RF military actions. ТАСС reports that the "Fair Russia — For Truth" party proposes to increase maternity capital for a second child to 1 million rubles and for a third to 1.5 million rubles. This is RF IO aimed at boosting internal morale and addressing demographic challenges, projecting stability and state care. Операция Z reports on a man discussing salary disparities between military and civilian personnel in Ukraine. This is an RF IO attempt to sow discord, highlight perceived economic hardship, and potentially portray military service as economically unviable or emotionally taxing in Ukraine. ТАСС reports Roskomnadzor (Russian federal service for supervision in the sphere of communications) blocked over 70,000 fraudulent SIM cards using internal systems of the domestic messenger Max. This is an RF IO effort to project effective internal security and control over digital communications, likely to reassure the public and potentially to signal greater control over information flow. TASS reports that individuals involved in the murder of General Kirillov have been accused of organizing a terrorist community. This is an RF IO message to project internal security and control. TASS reports an interview with Viktor Vodolatsky, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee for CIS Affairs, Eurasian Integration, and Relations with Compatriots, stating that the settlement process in Ukraine could drag on until Trump's victory over the "deep state." This is a significant RF IO effort to leverage perceived Western internal divisions and to project a long-term, politically-influenced conflict resolution timeline favorable to RF. The video also features nationalistic rhetoric, emphasizing Russian historical resilience and asserting confidence in Russia's eventual victory and reclaiming of historical lands. This reinforces a narrative of historical destiny and inevitable triumph. РБК-Україна posts a photo message stating Russia has appealed the ICAO decision regarding MH17 at the UN Court. This is a continuation of RF's legal and information warfare to deny responsibility. ТАСС posts a video claiming a Croatian citizen, who recently obtained Russian citizenship, surrendered to Russian FPV drone operators in Zaporizhzhia Oblast while serving with UAF. This is an RF IO attempt to demonstrate UAF disorganization and RF success. Рыбарь posts a daily situation summary, "Chronicle of the SMO for September 18," indicating continued structured RF information dissemination.
• NEW: ТАСС (Maria Zakharova) is actively pushing the narrative that European accusations of RF UAV airspace violations are intended to disrupt conflict resolution in Ukraine. This is a classic deflection tactic, attempting to discredit valid concerns and shift blame. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF Telegram channels (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) are amplifying claims of UAF command failures, specifically alleging the commander of the 11th Border Detachment went on vacation during unit retreat on the Kharkiv direction. This is designed to demoralize UAF and sow distrust in leadership. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF sources (Alex Parker Returns, Военкор Котенок) are showcasing North Korea's new "nuclear-capable" UAV. This is likely an IO effort to project the strength of RF's allies and potentially signal a broadened threat spectrum. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: TASS reports that Minister of Health Murashko stated doctor's salaries should be almost double the regional average. This is an internal RF IO effort to project state care for vital professions and improve morale, especially in a wartime economy. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: TASS (Maria Zakharova) claims the "drone coalition" providing UAVs to Ukraine needs to see "crimes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces" striking civilian targets. This is a direct deflection and false equivalency attempt in response to UAF drone capabilities. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF IO will leverage reports of children with cancer being transported within Russia to project state care and normalcy. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF IO will promote discussions led by Sergey Lavrov at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Business Council to project normalcy and international engagement. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF IO will promote civilian cultural events (e.g., giant vegetable festival in Moscow) to distract from the war and project normalcy. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF IO will leverage the Pulkovo airport cyberattack to either blame UAF (unlikely without direct evidence, but possible implication) or to project RF's own vulnerability and need for robust cyber defenses. (FACT, RF REPORT, JUDGEMENT)
• NEW: RF IO will exploit reports of Ukrainian refugees in Russia inhabiting the apartment of a "traitor" to create narratives of justice and internal stability. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF IO will attempt to downplay the impact of sanctions by showcasing the availability of Western products like iPhones in Russia. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF IO will attempt to deflect from internal issues (e.g., military deaths caused by comrades) to maintain morale and cohesion. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF IO will leverage reports about "reducing product packaging weight" as a sign of economic adaptation and efficiency rather than economic strain. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF IO will focus on discrediting the EU's proposed "wall of drones" along its eastern border, attempting to portray it as an aggressive or ineffective measure. (FACT, RF IO via Рыбарь)
• NEW: RF IO will continue to emphasize perceived UAF military setbacks (e.g., Volchansk) to boost RF morale. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF IO will use reports of their mine clearance robots to project technological advancement and commitment to demining. (FACT, RF REPORT/IO)
• NEW: RF IO will leverage changes to the school curriculum (e.g., excluding "complex topics") to project an image of improving the education system, while subtly enabling easier information control. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF IO is actively promoting discussions about "citizen protection and control over housing and communal services tariffs" with high-level officials (Putin, Volodin) to project effective domestic governance and address public concerns, likely to boost internal morale and deflect from wartime issues. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• NEW: RF IO will leverage the reported decline in Russia's food market (TASS) to highlight external pressures or as a justification for domestic policy, potentially attempting to frame it as a temporary difficulty. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• NEW: RF IO will use car recalls (Geely Emgrand) as a routine administrative issue to project normalcy and effective consumer protection, deflecting from the war. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• NEW: RF IO will frame its "harsh response" to European compensation structures as a strong, sovereign act against "Russophobia." (FACT, RF REPORT)
• NEW: RF IO will use reports of resumed direct flights (Russia-Philippines) to project renewed international engagement and normalisation, despite ongoing conflict. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• NEW: RF IO will attempt to downplay or deflect from the EU's planned ban on Russian LNG by 2027, portraying it as an economically irrational or politically motivated decision. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• NEW: RF IO will leverage claims about UAF 47th Brigade command changes (Operatsiya Z) to sow discord and doubt about UAF leadership effectiveness. (FACT, RF IO)
• NEW: RF IO will amplify claims of success in settlements like Novoiivanivka (Два майора, Colonelcassad) to project military progress and demoralize UAF. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• UAF Narratives: Emphasis on repelling RF assaults, successful deep strikes (Salavat refinery, Buk-M2), and the capture of RF personnel (425th Regiment "Skelya", "STRIKS" unit successes, border guard strikes, SBU agent detention, Kharkiv spotter detention, 35th Combined Arms Army casualties list) reinforces UAF's fighting capability and resolve. Zelenskyy's report of successful counter-offensive in Donetsk Oblast, including liberated territory and significant RF casualties, is a major boost to this narrative. The active public fundraising for advanced FPV drones ("best drones to work with") is a key part of this narrative. Reconnaissance personnel are highlighted as key to victory. The destroyed Poltava monument helicopter also serves as a symbol of resilience. UAF artillery displaying adaptability and continuous operation also reinforces this. President Zelenskyy's direct engagement with frontline units in Donetsk Oblast and the 82nd Air Assault Brigade command post further supports this narrative. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts reinforcing soldier morale. The 1st Assault Regiment's success near Dobropillya reinforces this. President Zelenskyy meeting with 79th Air Assault Brigade soldiers directly supports the narrative of resilience and success, highlighting specific unit involvement in current operations. The arrival of US PURL weapons is a strong narrative for continued international support and UAF capabilities. The Presidential Brigade of UAF posts a video showcasing night combat operations, emphasizing vigilance and effectiveness. Dnipropetrovsk ODA Head visiting emergency medical services championship highlights preparedness and resilience in the face of attacks. Zaporizhzhia ODA posts about evacuating young footballers, highlighting humanitarian efforts amidst conflict. "Підрозділ Shadow" posts video of successful drone strikes on RF shelters, reinforcing UAF precision strike capabilities. "БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС" posts video of the UAF 1st Assault Battalion holding its front line in Zaporizhzhia and destroying enemy forces with FPV drones, confirming UAF effectiveness and morale. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts video of the "STRIKS" unit's FPV drone successes on the Southern Slobozhansky direction, further confirming advanced tactical drone integration. Олександр Вілкул posts a briefing detailing the transfer of 10 DJI Matrice 4T quadcopters to the 77th Airmobile Brigade. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a photo message featuring a drone with the caption "Дальність? Вітер? Борт заармовано?" (Range? Wind? Борт armed?), indicating UAF's technical focus on drone operations. The "VARTOVI" unmanned systems battalion and 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" are actively demonstrating effective drone operations. Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement about Ukraine using 1000 interceptor drones daily indicates an immediate and significant scaling of UAF counter-UAV capabilities. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts multiple photo messages showcasing a tactical screen with telemetry data. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement that Ukraine will use 1000 interceptor drones per day in the near future, indicating a strategic shift towards large-scale counter-UAV operations. Ukraine is producing 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month and aims for 7 missiles daily by year-end, which will be leveraged to project growing domestic defense capabilities. Documenting casualties (Konstantinovka КАБ strike killing 5 civilians), damage to civilian infrastructure (Nizhyn, Zaporizhzhia), and war crimes allegations (exhumation videos, Donetsk displacement photos) aims to highlight RF atrocities and maintain international support. The opening of a memorial alley in Zaporizhzhia directly reinforces the narrative of sacrifice and remembrance. Demining efforts highlight UAF efforts to protect civilians. Dnipropetrovsk ODA reporting КАБ and drone strikes on civilian communities highlights RF aggression and humanitarian impact. Renewed air alerts in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast are implicitly used to highlight ongoing RF aggression against civilian areas. Reports on investigations into TCC officials and high-level fraud, recent corruption busts in Dnipropetrop- sk Oblast, the investigation into a pro-Russian judge, the detention of Novinsky (RPC curator), and the uncovering of an organized gambling network in Kyiv demonstrate commitment to transparency and good governance. Prosecution of an FSB officer for war crimes. Life sentence for an FSB officer who brutally treated civilians in Kherson Oblast demonstrates accountability for war crimes. Exposure of a human trafficking ring led by a PRC citizen. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the conviction of a "Rashist" who oversaw the "Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation" during the occupation of Kherson, which serves to project UAF's commitment to justice and accountability. Zelenskyy's statements confirming successful operations on RF territory and the impact on the RF fuel sector highlight UAF's growing asymmetrical capabilities. Highlighting security cooperation agreements with partners like Greece and the new drone cooperation agreement with Poland, including a joint operational group. New military aid from Ireland. Poland checking bomb shelters also indirectly signals allied seriousness about RF threats. РБК-Україна reporting Starmer's commitment to help Ukraine with Trump (photo message) promotes this. Trump's statements about "Putin letting him down" and hopes for "good news" on the Ukraine settlement are being used by UAF IO to highlight potential divisions in the West's perception of Putin's actions and a desire for peace on Ukraine's terms. Confirmation of US PURL weapons arrival is a strong narrative for continued international support and UAF capabilities. Operatyvny ZSU also reports the first US PURL weapon delivery. An EU Ambassador emphasizing the need for energy reforms in Ukraine (РБК-Україна) highlights continued international interest and support for Ukraine's long-term stability. UAF IO material depicting soldiers in combat and sacrifice, often leveraging emotional elements like a fallen soldier with a cat, reinforces patriotic narratives. Training initiatives for national resistance also foster patriotism. The Military Ombudsman law emphasizes caring for service members. The Coordination Headquarters provides critical support for families of POWs/MIA, bolstering morale. Active reporting on the return of bodies of fallen servicemen demonstrates transparency and care for personnel. Report on no elections in 2026 implies UAF IO to justify wartime measures. Appointment of Tetyana Chornovol as people's deputy highlights democratic processes. РБК-Україна posts a photo message featuring an analytical piece titled "War, Ukraine, the world. What to pay attention to today," which frames ongoing events from a Ukrainian perspective. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the EU will accelerate its rejection of Russian LNG due to pressure from Trump, positioning this as a positive outcome for Ukraine. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video with an inflammatory caption against the "second army," displaying strong anti-RF sentiment and bolstering UAF morale and resolve. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a video compilation documenting over 1300 combat engagements in the last seven days, with nearly a third on the Pokrovsk direction. РБК-Україна posts a photo message stating Zelenskyy invited Qatar to a summit in New York regarding the return of Ukrainian children, highlighting humanitarian diplomacy. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo message detailing the exposure of heads of military medical commissions in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts for bribery, promoting transparency and anti-corruption efforts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo message announcing the opening of a mental health center in Ternopil for military personnel and veterans, emphasizing support for service members. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts drone footage of Mykolaiv marines (VARTOVI battalion) successfully striking Russian vehicles, artillery, and infantry, demonstrating UAF effectiveness and boosting morale. "БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС" posts drone footage of the 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" destroying eight Russian assault troops on the Pokrovsk direction, further reinforcing the narrative of successful UAF operations and precision. "РБК-Україна" refutes claims of a "data leak" from e-Notariat, serving to reassure the public about data security and counter RF disinformation. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports RF is distributing "evacuation" leaflets in Velyka Pysarivka, Sumy Oblast, which UAF IO can frame as a sign of RF desperation or fear of UAF counter-action. "Оперативний ЗСУ" crowdfunding for the Pokrovsk direction highlights continued public support. "Colonelcassad" posts an image claiming Russian forces destroyed "Georgian mercenary Yura Kalandarishvili," which RF IO will use to discredit foreign fighters and claim successes against NATO-aligned personnel, but UAF IO can use it to highlight the international nature of the conflict and RF's willingness to target foreign fighters. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a humorous video with "victory music," likely a morale-boosting effort. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that a former Ukrainian brigadier general who betrayed Ukraine in 2014 is commanding the assault on Kupiansk, a narrative highlighting internal betrayal which UAF IO can use to emphasize the enemy's reliance on such figures. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна reporting on the "Gerbera" UAV fragment found on a Latvian beach highlights RF external aggression. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement about 1000 interceptor drones daily, boosting morale by projecting a strong, adaptive, and technologically advanced defense. UAF IO will likely frame the EU's accelerated rejection of Russian LNG (Bloomberg) as a victory for international pressure and a sign of weakening Russian economic power. UAF IO will counter RF amplification of Trump's "no ceasefire" statement by highlighting it as evidence that international leaders recognize Putin's unwillingness to genuinely negotiate, reinforcing UAF's resolve to continue fighting. РБК-Україна highlights Poland conducting large-scale checks of bomb shelters, framing it within the context of European readiness to RF threats. РБК-Україна shares a video of Donald Trump suggesting Europe taking action against China could accelerate the end of the war in Ukraine, which UAF IO will likely monitor for opportunities to reinforce narratives of international pressure on RF. Оперативний ЗСУ posts messages regarding Russia's challenge to the ICAO decision on MH17, framing it as Russia attempting to evade responsibility. РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Pavlohrad, and Николаевский Ванёк reports successful downing of drones. These immediate reports from UAF-aligned channels serve as direct IO reinforcing UAF's active defense and effectiveness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting that Ukraine produces 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month, aiming for 7 daily by year-end, which will be leveraged to project growing domestic defense capabilities. The UAF Air Force (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) reporting 20+ Shaheds from Chernihiv to Kyiv is a direct and immediate UAF IO response highlighting ongoing RF threats and UAF defensive vigilance. The Air Force of Ukraine (Повітряні Сили ЗС України) report on a group of UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast also serves as a critical, immediate UAF IO communication. РБК-Україна posts a video message reporting RF has recently built a new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast, 35 km from the Ukrainian border, attributed to OSINT-analyst Brady Africk. РБК-Україна also posts a tactical analysis of a satellite image of the Bryansk Oblast launch site. This new site likely implies an increased and more direct drone threat to northern Ukraine, particularly Kyiv and Sumy Oblasts. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posted a video claiming to show aerial combat on the Zaporizhzhia front, displaying FPV drone footage, telemetry data, and what appears to be a Ukrainian drone targeting Russian equipment. This visual confirmation reinforces UAF's active and successful use of drones in combat.

NEW INTELLIGENCE:

• RF Casualties: Ukrainian General Staff "Friday Mathematics" photo message (Два майора, RF source) likely reporting UAF claims of RF casualties. (FACT, RF IO)
• UAF Drone Strike on RF Vehicle: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video showing a UAF drone strike on an RF vehicle on a rural road, with "BOMB ARMED" overlay. This directly reinforces UAF precision strike capabilities. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Drone Strike/Artillery on RF Positions: Сливочный каприз (UAF-aligned) posts video of UAF drone-directed artillery strikes on RF positions in a wooded area near Konstantinovka - Oleksandro-Shultyno. This demonstrates continued effective UAF targeting. (FACT, UAF-ALIGNED REPORT)
• UAF Counter-Offensive Operations (Pokrovsk): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts drone footage of 414th Brigade "Madjar's Birds" destroying eight RF assault troops near Pokrovsk. This highlights continued UAF offensive pressure and tactical success. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Civilian Support: Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація posts on expanding cooperation with "Відповідальні громадяни" NGO for child protection and family support. This reinforces the narrative of state care and humanitarian efforts. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Fundraising: STERNENKO reporting slightly lower donations indicates a potential need for increased public engagement or diversified funding efforts. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Zhytomyr Incident (Internal Affairs): The Prosecutor General's Office initiating an investigation into a prosecutor's death in Zhytomyr demonstrates UAF's commitment to rule of law and internal accountability. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Public Trust: РБК-Україна posts poll data from KIIS on public trust in Zelenskyy in September, providing insights into public sentiment. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Drone Procurement: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video discussing the ongoing procurement of drone detection equipment, highlighting UAF's proactive measures against drone threats and public support. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Military Training: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts photos and a caption detailing first-year cadets at a Military Institute completing an obstacle course, the final stage of basic combined-arms training, highlighting continued training and personnel readiness. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Diplomacy: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy may meet with Navrotsky for the first time in the coming days, indicating ongoing diplomatic efforts. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Internal Corruption (Vinnytsia): The Vinnytsia Prosecutor's Office is countering schemes of budget fund, land, and communal property embezzlement, uncovering over 30 million UAH in damages. This reinforces UAF's commitment to transparency and anti-corruption efforts. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Medical Success (Azovstal Defender): Оперативний ЗСУ highlights a successful surgery to remove a bullet from an Azovstal defender's heart. This reinforces resilience and successful medical care. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF FPV Drone Procurement (Public Support): STERNENKO reports 370 FPV drones, including 40 Shahed interceptors, were procured in the last day through public donations. This demonstrates continued public engagement and UAF efforts to scale drone capabilities. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Living Wage Review: РБК-Україна reports the Ministry of Finance is reviewing the living wage in Ukraine. This projects state care for its citizens during wartime. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Heating Season Preparations: РБК-Україна posts that less than a month remains until the formal start of the heating season on October 15th. This highlights proactive planning and public awareness. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Public Condemnation of RF Tactics: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video depicting RF soldiers driving over mines, with the caption criticizing Russian commanders for not caring about casualties. This is a clear UAF IO effort to demoralize RF forces and highlight their callous leadership. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Internal Morale (SBS Commander): Николаевский Ванёк posts about the "100 days of the SBS Commander," likely a positive internal UAF message or recognition, aimed at boosting morale or public confidence. (FACT, UAF REPORT)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(Confidence: HIGH)

1. Sustained Multi-Axis Ground Offensives with Emphasis on Eastern Sectors: RF will continue relentless ground assaults on the Kupiansk-Lyman, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka axes. Specific focus will be on attempts to advance in Kupiansk (including urban areas), to complete claimed encirclements in Serebryansky forestry, and in areas like Yampil, Zarichne, and Novoiivanivka (with RF claims of consolidation). RF will likely intensify ground operations in Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast. The deployment of mine warfare and booby traps will persist. RF will continue FPV drone attacks to cause UAF casualties. RF forces will also continue lethal raids in occupied areas (e.g., Kozachi Laheri) to suppress local resistance and solidify control.
2. High-Volume Aerial Attacks on Critical Infrastructure and Military Targets: RF will continue extensive use of attack UAVs (Shaheds) and guided aerial bombs (КАБ) targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure, railway networks, and military-industrial complex facilities. There is a high likelihood of a large-scale retaliatory strike within 24-48 hours for the UAF deep strike on Salavat, potentially exceeding previous volumes (~150+ UAVs and cruise missiles), and focusing on critical infrastructure in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Kyiv will likely remain a high-priority target for psychological and infrastructure impact. RF will continue reconnaissance UAV activity, particularly in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, to guide these strikes. Drone attacks will persist in Sumy and Poltava Oblasts.
3. Intensified Information Warfare to Demoralize and Divide: RF IO will focus on denying or significantly downplaying UAF counter-offensive successes and deep strikes, while amplifying narratives of UAF disorganization, corruption (e.g., desertion schemes, bribery in medical commissions, alleged command failures like the 11th Border Detachment commander, and the 47th Brigade change), and heavy casualties (e.g., the 1000:24 body exchange ratio). They will continue to exploit Western political statements (e.g., Trump's comments on Putin/Zelenskyy) and international accusations (e.g., UAV airspace violations) to sow discord within the alliance and undermine international support for Ukraine. RF will also leverage internal security narratives (e.g., Moscow bomb plot, cocaine interception, domestic stability via salary increases) to project an image of state strength. RF IO will likely discredit discussions on the "wall of drones" and amplify claims of UAF military ineffectiveness (e.g., Volchansk). They will frame their responses to European compensation structures as strong and justified.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(Confidence: MEDIUM)

1. Major Escalation in Border Incursions/Hybrid Operations (Sumy/Chernihiv/Kharkiv Oblasts): Leveraging the "Zapad-2025" exercise forces and new drone launch sites in Bryansk, RF could attempt a more significant cross-border ground incursion in Sumy or Chernihiv Oblasts. This would aim to divert UAF resources from eastern fronts and create a new axis of pressure, potentially using disguised personnel or human shields as reported in Yampil. This could be preceded by intense air and missile strikes on border communities and accompanied by further lethal raids against civilians in newly occupied areas.
2. Deliberate Mass-Casualty Strike on Civilian Population Center with Advanced Weaponry: In response to perceived UAF successes or to psychologically terrorize the population, RF could conduct a deliberate mass-casualty attack on a non-military, high-visibility civilian target in a major Ukrainian city (e.g., Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, Dnipro). This could involve a coordinated strike using a mix of ballistic and hypersonic missiles to increase penetration against air defenses, potentially including recently demonstrated advanced long-range UAVs (North Korean type), maximizing civilian casualties and disrupting public order.
3. Widespread Cyberattacks on Critical Infrastructure/Government Systems: Concurrent with or prior to a major offensive, RF could unleash a coordinated and highly disruptive cyberattack campaign targeting Ukraine's critical infrastructure (energy grid, telecommunications, financial systems) or central government/military C2 networks. This would aim to create chaos, disrupt UAF operations and logistics, and degrade public confidence in the government's ability to maintain essential services, potentially also attempting to disrupt payment systems in public transport on a larger scale. The Pulkovo airport hack suggests a continued capability and intent for such operations.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Next 24-48 Hours (Immediate): High probability of an RF large-scale aerial retaliatory strike for the Salavat refinery attack. This is a critical window for UAF air defense readiness. Continued heavy ground engagements are expected on existing axes, with RF attempting to consolidate claimed gains in Kupiansk, Serebryansky forestry, Novoiivanivka, and Zarichne. Decision point: allocation of air defense assets to high-risk zones, and deployment of ground forces to reinforce critical sectors under heavy RF pressure.
• Next 72 Hours (Short-Term): Assessment of RF's ability to reinforce or counter-attack in the Dobropillya-Pokrovsk sector will be crucial. UAF's ability to hold ground and exploit RF vulnerabilities in this area will dictate the tactical momentum. Decision point: commitment of UAF reserves or further offensive actions. Continued monitoring of RF UAV and КАБ activity in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Monitoring of RF activity in Kozachi Laheri and other occupied areas to assess potential for further civilian atrocities.
• Next 1-2 Weeks (Mid-Term): Monitoring RF force redeployments from "Zapad-2025" and assessing any increased activity along the northern border (Sumy/Chernihiv). Evaluating the effectiveness of anti-drone tunnel construction in Zaporizhzhia. Assessing the long-term impact of UAF deep strikes on RF logistics and morale. Decision point: adjustments to border defense postures and resource allocation for infrastructure protection, especially for the upcoming heating season. Continued monitoring of public trust in Zelenskyy and potential shifts in domestic political narratives.

Intelligence Gaps and Collection Requirements:

• CRITICAL (PRIORITY 1): Full verification of RF claims of territorial gains (Yampil, Serebryansky forestry, Kupiansk urban areas, Novomykolaivka, Novopetrovske/Ternove, Novoiivanivka, Zarichne) and accurate Line of Contact mapping, especially in the Zaporizhzhia and Krasnolimanskoye directions. IMINT/HUMINT/OSINT (task 24/7 coverage).
• HIGH (PRIORITY 2): Detailed Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the UAF strike on the Salavat petrochemical complex, including impact on fuel production capacity. OSINT/MASINT (commercial satellite imagery).
• HIGH (PRIORITY 2): Confirmation and assessment of the reported UAF F-16 shootdown of a Shahed. If verified, assess implications for future air defense tactics and F-16 deployment strategy. SIGINT/ELINT/IMINT.
• HIGH (PRIORITY 2): Monitor for signs of RF preparation for larger cross-border incursions into Sumy/Chernihiv, particularly troop concentrations and logistics buildup in Bryansk Oblast and Belarus, given the new drone launch site and RF IO regarding the 11th Border Detachment. IMINT/HUMINT/OSINT.
• HIGH (PRIORITY 2): Investigate reports of RF atrocities and civilian killings in occupied areas, specifically in Kozachi Laheri. HUMINT/OSINT (forensic analysis of open-source reports).
• MEDIUM (PRIORITY 3): Assess the immediate and projected impact of RF's new Pantsir-SMD SAM systems deliveries on the air defense landscape. OSINT/TECHINT.
• MEDIUM (PRIORITY 3): Detailed analysis of North Korean UAV capabilities and potential for RF acquisition or collaborative development. TECHINT/OSINT.
• MEDIUM (PRIORITY 3): Monitor for and assess the effectiveness of RF's new EW development institution. OSINT/SIGINT.
• MEDIUM (PRIORITY 3): Investigate the Pulkovo Airport cyberattack: attribution, methodology, and potential for future, more impactful attacks. CYBINT.
• MEDIUM (PRIORITY 3): Assess the impact of the UAF 47th Brigade command change on its operational effectiveness and morale. HUMINT/OSINT.
• LOW (PRIORITY 4): Continued monitoring of RF internal security and political narratives, especially those related to corruption and social policy, to gauge regime stability and potential for unexpected shifts in military strategy. OSINT/HUMINT.
• LOW (PRIORITY 4): Monitor the impact of the proposed RF cryptocurrency mining ban on regional electricity grids, especially near border areas. OSINT.

Recommendations:

1. Maximize Air Defense Readiness and Counter-UAV Capabilities: Immediately elevate air defense alert levels across Ukraine, especially for Kyiv and other major cities. Prioritize allocation of available AD assets to protect critical energy and railway infrastructure. Emphasize counter-UAV and anti-glide bomb capabilities, leveraging the planned increase in interceptor drones and the recent procurement of 370 FPV drones. Focus on disrupting RF reconnaissance UAVs in contested areas. Continue procurement and deployment of drone detection equipment. Proactively prepare air defense for upcoming heating season.
2. Exploit RF Vulnerabilities in Donetsk and Southern Donetsk: Capitalize on the reported RF casualties and disorganization in the Dobropillya-Pokrovsk sector. Push for further tactical gains and disrupt RF consolidation efforts in areas like Novoiivanivka and Zarichne, while carefully managing UAF force protection. Continue effective drone-directed artillery and precision FPV strikes against RF personnel and equipment.
3. Amplify UAF Successes and Counter RF Disinformation Proactively: Launch a robust STRATCOM campaign highlighting the Dobropillya counter-offensive (liberated territory, RF casualties), the Salavat deep strike, the Tendra Spit GUR raid, and the successful Azovstal defender's surgery. Actively and immediately counter RF narratives regarding UAF failures, alleged command corruption (e.g., 11th Border Detachment commander, 47th Brigade change), and the 1000:24 body exchange ratio. Use evidence of RF war crimes (Konstantinovka КАБ strike, Primorske FPV drone fatality, Kozachi Laheri killings) to maintain international support. Leverage current public trust in Zelenskyy to reinforce national unity. Highlight internal UAF anti-corruption efforts (Vinnytsia Prosecutor's Office).
4. Strengthen Northern Border Defenses and Situational Awareness: Conduct enhanced ISR and reconnaissance along the Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. Increase readiness for rapid response to potential RF cross-border incursions, leveraging the new drone launch site intelligence from Bryansk. Actively counter RF IO targeting UAF border guard command. Monitor RF claims of UAF battalion combat effectiveness loss in Volchansk and be prepared to counter.
5. Accelerate Anti-Drone Tunnel Deployment and Enhance Civilian Protection: Prioritize resources and accelerate the construction of anti-drone tunnels for logistics and critical infrastructure protection in Zaporizhzhia and other frontline regions. Implement enhanced civilian warning and shelter protocols in areas prone to КАБ and FPV drone attacks. Provide humanitarian aid and safe evacuation routes for civilians in areas like Kozachi Laheri.
6. Investigate and Mitigate Internal Corruption and Maintain Morale: Continue aggressive internal security efforts to root out corruption within the TCC system and other military structures, as highlighted by the Dnipro detention and Vinnytsia investigations. Maintain public trust and military effectiveness. Reinforce morale through transparent communication and continued support for service members and their families, including continued military training for new recruits.

//END REPORT//