Sitrep 2025-09-19 07:08:38

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 190703Z SEP 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current operational picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (Confidence: HIGH)

RF forces maintain multi-axis pressure across the Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia axes. Heavy reciprocal battles continue in Sumy Oblast. RF claims unverified advances in Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, and occupation of the medical college area in Kupiansk, with military control and fortifications on the Velikoburlukskoye direction. RF claims a 5km advance on the Gulyaipole direction, entering Novoivanivka, and new positions south of Novoivanivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF claims full control of Serebryansky forestry, representing a significant territorial gain on the Lyman direction, if verified. RF claims UAF "complains" about RF advances in Kupiansk, with RF sources amplifying reports of "chaos and disorganization" and a "failed defense." RF footage displays dynamic combat engagements in a forest environment, explosions, and smoke. Kotsnews posts video claiming "liberation of Novonikolaevka" with Russian assault troops detailing mine clearing. Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming soldiers of the 270th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Akhmat-Caucasus" destroyed enemy positions in Malaya Tokmachka area. ТАСС posts video claiming Tornado-S MLRS crews destroyed three temporary deployment points of a UAF brigade in Konstantinovka. Colonelcassad reports a cluster Iskander strike on a UAF company tactical group near Druzhkivka. Воин DV posts video detailing renewed artillery strikes and attacks on enemy personnel in the Polozhskoye direction by the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo message showing a tactical map of a contested area, suggesting ongoing ground combat and RF claims of UAF setbacks in Kupiansk. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports over 80 combat engagements in the last 24 hours. The Kramatorsk direction saw 15 RF assaults near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Mykolayivka, Stupochky, Bila Hora, and Andriivka, with UAF repelling 12. The Pokrovsk direction remains the hottest, with 28 assaults near Volodymyrivka, Zapovidne, Novoekonomichne, Shevchenko, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne, Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Vilne, Chervonyi Lyman, Myrnohrad, Rodynske, Promin, Zvirove, Molodetske, Novopidhorodne, Novopavlivka, and Filiya, with 20 repelled. On the Novopavlivka direction, 26 assaults were near Yalta, Shevchenko, Komyshuvakha, Vorone, Ternove, Novoivanivka, Filiya, Ivanivka, Iskra, Sichneve, Olhivske, and Poltavka, with 21 repelled. On the Orikhiv direction, 7 assaults occurred near Kamyanske and towards Novodanylivka, with 6 repelled. On the Kherson direction, UAF repelled 4 Russian army assaults. On the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions, UAF repelled 7 Russian army assaults. This indicates sustained and heavy RF pressure across all key axes, particularly Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka. UAF has confirmed the liberation of Pankivka, Donetsk Oblast, and Zarichne. UAF reports eliminating a Russian breakthrough near Pokrovsk with ongoing cleanup operations. Drone footage from the 'Battle for Pokrovsk,' displays successful strikes against RF targets. UAF "Pion" artillery is operating on the Donetsk direction. FPV drone footage of night combat operations by the 6th Battalion of the Azov Brigade shows thermal imagery of strikes. UAF forces have flooded a gas pipe in Kupiansk, attempting to thwart RF infiltration, and deny RF claims of fighting in the city center. UAF 15th Separate Artillery Reconnaissance Brigade "Black Forest" successfully destroyed an RF Buk-M2 SAM system (video confirmed). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts video claiming six accurate strikes by the "STRIKS" unit on the Southern Slobozhansky direction. Олександр Вілкул posts photo messages of the 77th Airmobile Brigade on the front. Оперативний ЗСУ posts drone footage showing Ukrainian forces identifying and striking a Russian artillery position and communication antenna in Kharkiv Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС highlights how the 1st Assault Regiment (1-й ОШП) "cut the pincers" of Russians near Dobropillya. President Zelenskyy met with soldiers of the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade participating in the defense of Myrnohrad and the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation, reporting 160 sq km liberated and 7 settlements freed. UAF's "Shadow" unit posts video of successful drone strikes on RF shelters ("укриттям"), indicating continued precision targeting of enemy fortifications. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts video showing the UAF 1st Assault Battalion holding its front line in Zaporizhzhia, destroying enemy forces "far from the line of contact" using FPV drones, indicating robust long-range defensive capabilities. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts video of "STRIKS" unit FPV drone operators from the 4th Border Guard Detachment destroying two enemy positions, a shelter, a BMP, and two vehicles (one laden with ammunition) on the Southern Slobozhansky direction. This highlights continued UAF tactical successes using FPV drones. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts photos of President Zelenskyy meeting with the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade at their command post, acknowledging their participation in the defense of Mirnohrad and the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video depicting drone footage of Ukrainian military positions, specifically trenches, being targeted and struck by munitions, with a logo of what appears to be a Ukrainian military insignia and a unit emblem with drones and an eagle, suggesting successful strikes against enemy positions. The caption reads "Окупантам не сховатися" (Occupiers cannot hide). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a video compilation showing intense combat engagements from a drone's perspective on the Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Kupiansk directions, documenting numerous RF artillery strikes and personnel losses. Two Ukrainian reconnaissance companies, including the "VARTOVI" unmanned systems battalion of Mykolaiv marines, are actively engaging Russian military assets, targeting vehicle convoys, artillery, and infantry positions. UAF drone operators from the 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" successfully destroyed eight Russian assault troops on the Pokrovsk direction. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides an operational update for 22:00, 18.09.2025, confirming UAF repelled the majority of RF assaults across multiple axes, indicating successful defensive operations despite heavy pressure. ТАСС reports RF Deputy Commander of a VDV assault battalion claims UAF forces are abandoning NATO weapons during retreat in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (UNVERIFIED RF IO) Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posted a video claiming to show aerial combat on the Zaporizhzhia front, displaying FPV drone footage, telemetry data, and what appears to be a Ukrainian drone targeting Russian equipment. This indicates continued intense drone warfare.

NEW INTELLIGENCE:

Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast (RF Claim): "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming the 1009th regiment destroyed UAF infantry in Volchansk. Footage shows explosions, smoke, and what appears to be incendiary munitions. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (UAF Report): "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports on the consequences of enemy night attacks on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating ongoing RF aerial activity and damage. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (UAF Report): "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" reports a 74-year-old man was injured due to an enemy attack on the Stepnohirsk community. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
General Staff Update (UAF Report): "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" provides operational information as of 08:00, 19.09.2025, stating UAF repelled 10 enemy assaults in the Southern Slobozhansky direction (Staromayorske district), 8 in the Orikhiv direction (Robotyne, Verkhnya Tersa, Novodanylivka, Stepnohirska communities), and 1 in the Kherson direction (Krynyk). UAF confirmed 70 combat engagements over the past day, including 26 on the Pokrovsk direction, and 25 on the Novopavlivka direction. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Casualties: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports an additional 1150 personnel neutralized in the last 24 hours. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)
RF Assistance for Frontline: Операция Z (RF source) amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" videos showing a man with crutches and another in tactical gear receiving medical supplies and radios for fighters on the Pokrovsk and Dnipropetrovsk fronts. (FACT, RF CLAIM - Donation deliveries for RF units)
RF Mine Warfare Tactics: ТАСС (RF source) posts a video claiming UAF is leaving booby-trapped mines with water for RF assault troops in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Yampil, DNR (RF Claim): ТАСС reports Marochko claimed RF Army broke through UAF defenses and entered Yampil in DNR. If verified, this represents a significant RF advance. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
RF SOF Operations (Vremevsky Direction): "Colonelcassad" posts video claiming the 14th Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade destroyed UAF militants on the Vremevsky direction. Footage shows drone thermal imagery and ground combat. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Siversk Axis (RF Claim): ТАСС reports Kimakovsky claimed RF forces are fighting in Vyemka and Pereyizne, aiming to straighten the front line and encircle Siversk. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Novopetrovske/Ternove (RF Claim): Colonelcassad posts video claiming the 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade "Vostok" Group liberated Novopetrovske (Ternove), encountering heavy UAF defenses including minefields and FPV drones. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Novoyekonomichne, Donetsk Oblast (UAF Report): Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video showing a village under what appears to be artillery or missile strikes, with multiple houses on fire, confirming active combat in Novoyekonomichne, Donetsk Oblast. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Tendra Spit Operation (UAF GUR): РБК-Україна reports a video of GUR special forces conducting a naval operation on the Tendra Spit, destroying a Russian landing craft. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
EU Sanctions Discussion: ТАСС reports EU ambassadors will meet today to discuss the 19th package of anti-Russian sanctions. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Chernihiv Explosion (UAF Report): РБК-Україна reports an explosion was heard in Chernihiv. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Southern Front Civilian Shelling: Сили оборони Півдня України (UAF source) reports RF conducted 7 shellings on 6 settlements in the Southern operational zone yesterday, affecting civilians. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Southern Front Shahed Interceptions: Сили оборони Півдня України (UAF source) reports 3 Shahed-136/131 UAVs were destroyed in the Southern operational zone yesterday. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Kupiansk/Lyman POWs (UAF Claim): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming soldiers of the 425th Regiment "Skelya" captured 17 POWs in a week on the Pokrovsk and Lyman directions. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)
Slavyansk Direction Fundraising (RF Source): Два майора posts a video appealing for donations for assault troops on the Slavyansk direction. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Novoyvanovka Fatalities (RF Source): Воин DV posts graphic images (21+) claiming Ukrainian servicemen defending Novoyvanovka made the "wrong choice," implying significant UAF casualties. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Krasnoarmeysk Logistics Fire Control (RF Claim): ТАСС reports Kimakovsky claimed RF forces took full fire control of all UAF logistics around Krasnoarmeysk. (FACT, RF CLAIM)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (Confidence: HIGH)

Current conditions are generally clear and favorable for air operations across most of Ukraine. A cold front is moving into the Carpathians with temperatures dropping to -2°C, and snow is possible soon. The strongest geomagnetic storm in 3 months (G3) continues to impact satellite communications and GPS for both sides.

RF launched three S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles, one Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile, and 75 drones (over 40 of them Shaheds) overnight against Ukraine. 48 RF UAVs were shot down/suppressed. Persistent RF UAV threats affect Sumy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Odesa, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Poltava Oblasts. Zaporizhzhia experienced at least TEN strikes, killing one person and injuring 20, causing power outages. Sumy Oblast suffered two drone impacts, causing power outages and a warehouse fire. RF dropped three FAB-250 glide bombs on Kramatorsk, injuring 19. UAF Air Force warns of guided aerial bomb launches on Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Nizhyn suffered the "most massive strike from the beginning of the war" with dozens of drones, damaging critical infrastructure. Explosions confirmed in Sumy. Yampil is reported to be burning. Large fire at Kyiv logistics center liquidated after repeated morning attacks. UAF Air Force warns of several UAV groups past Derhachi, heading towards Kharkiv. RF sources report "powerful explosions in Balakliia (Kharkiv Oblast)" with videos of large smoke plumes. New RF drone group detections for Chernihiv Oblast towards Baturyn and renewed explosions in Kropyvnytskyi. Critical infrastructure hit by RF UAVs in Cherkasy Oblast. Large fire engulfing a multi-story building in Kyiv reported. КАБы on Kherson, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts. Five strong explosions in Petrovsky district of Donetsk. RF drone strike on a gas station in Poltava district, causing a fire and one casualty. UAF Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs (КАБ) on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. РБК-Україна reports Russians struck a residential area of Konstantinovka with a guided aerial bomb (КАБ), killing 5 people. Air Force of Ukraine reports tactical aviation activity in the northeast direction, specifically launching guided aerial bombs (КАБ) towards Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБы ➡️ на Донеччину! (Guided aerial bombs towards Donetsk Oblast!). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district). Николаевский Ванёк reports three UAVs approaching Pavlohrad, and subsequent defensive actions and successful downing of UAVs in Pavlohrad. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a person was injured in Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast, due to a drone attack and falling debris. Three women were injured in Vozdvyzhivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, due to an enemy attack, further increasing civilian casualties. The Kyiv City Military Administration (КМВА) has reported the all-clear for Kyiv, while the subway restores normal operations.

NEW INTELLIGENCE:

Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast (RF Claim): "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming the 1009th regiment destroyed UAF infantry in Volchansk. Footage shows explosions, smoke, and what appears to be incendiary munitions. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (UAF Report): "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports on the consequences of enemy night attacks on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating ongoing RF aerial activity and damage. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (UAF Report): "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" reports a 74-year-old man was injured due to an enemy attack on the Stepnohirsk community. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Kyiv (UAF Report): "РБК-Україна" and "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" report possible disruptions to card payments and ticket validation on high-speed trams and funiculars in Kyiv due to the night shelling. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Air Defense (Crimea): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) reports RF air defense destroyed 4 enemy UAVs over annexed Crimea overnight. ASTRA corroborates RF claims of 4 drones shot down over Crimea. (FACT, RF CLAIM) However, ASTRA also reports an attack on a Russian radar station in annexed Crimea, injuring two servicemen, indicating UAF successful penetration of RF air defense. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Pavlohrad Drone Attack: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (UAF source) reports RF massively attacked Pavlohrad with drones overnight. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF Air Defense Activity: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (UAF source) reports a group of UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast heading south. РБК-Україна corroborates with a map showing air alert zones. (FACT, UAF REPORT) NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also reports new UAV activity: 🛵 Чернігівщина: БпЛА на сході, курсом на захід та в центрі, курсом на схід. and 🛵 Небезпека застосування ворожих БпЛА на Сумщині! and 🛵 БпЛА в напрямку Чернігова. Перебувайте в укриттях! (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Air Defense Production: ТАСС (RF source) reports the "High-Precision Systems" holding delivered a batch of new "Pantsir-SMD" SAM systems to the RF Armed Forces. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Mining Policy: ТАСС (RF source) reports the Ministry of Energy does not expect new bans on cryptocurrency mining in RF regions soon. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Information Control: ТАСС (RF source) reports the list of Russian services and websites available during mobile network restrictions for security purposes will be updated weekly. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Drone Superiority Claim: Операция Z (RF source) amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" video claiming "Rubikon" (Lekka-100 drone) achieves air superiority. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
RF Civilian Casualties (Belgorod): ASTRA (RF source) reports two people were injured in Belgorod Oblast due to drone strikes. (FACT, RF REPORT)
UAF Deep Strike (Kursk Oblast): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) posts video claiming SSO struck a logistics hub of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade (OBRMPS) in Kursk Oblast. (FACT, UAF CLAIM) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS corroborates this with video evidence of the strike, showing an industrial or military complex. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)
Geopolitical Speculation (Venezuela): Рыбарь (RF source) posts about forecasts of a possible US invasion of Venezuela. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Israel's Iron Beam (Два майора): "Два майора" posts video claiming Israel's Iron Beam laser air defense system is ready for use this year. (FACT, RF REPORT on foreign military technology).
Kyiv Drone Debris (UAF Report): Оперативний ЗСУ reports an unexploded enemy UAV was found in Shevchenkivskyi district, Kyiv, with specialists working on site. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Vremevsky Direction (RF Drone Ops): Воин DV posts video claiming drone operators of the 5th Guards Army "Vostok" Group are active on the Vremevsky direction, showing thermal imagery and explosions. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Overnight Strikes (RF Claim): Операция Z amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" video claiming massive strikes were carried out overnight against enemy targets in Pavlohrad, Kyiv, and Sumy. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
UAF Air Defense Success: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, and Генеральний штаб ЗСУ all report 71 RF UAVs shot down/suppressed out of 86 launched overnight. РБК-Україна corroborates this, but notes a new group is already airborne. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Cruise Missile Launches (Okhotsk Sea): Басурин о главном reports RF Project 667BDRM (Delta IV) class submarines "Krasnoyarsk" and "Omsk" conducted cruise missile launches (likely Onyx) in the Okhotsk Sea during exercises. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Japan Railgun Test (Colonelcassad): Colonelcassad reports Japan conducted test firing of an electromagnetic railgun from a ship against a target vessel at sea. (FACT, RF REPORT on foreign military technology)
КАБ Launches (Sumy Oblast): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБ launches on Sumy Oblast (Khotin community). (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Vyborog Flooding (RF Report): Север.Реалии reports heavy flooding in Vyborog, Leningrad Oblast, causing power outages. (FACT, RF REPORT)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (Confidence: HIGH)

RF Forces:

Ground: Multi-axis offensives continue with claims of advances in Krasnoarmeysk-Dmitrov, "grinding down" elite UAF units on Dobropillya direction, and entering Konstantinovka city limits. RF claims offensive development at the junction of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with claims of "liberating" Olhivske and Sosnovka. "Kurier" and "Fagot" UGVs deployed. Heavy reciprocal battles in Sumy Oblast. FAB strikes continue in Kalinovsky, targeting UAF logistics. Assault on Yampil has started, utilizing civilian clothing for disguise and human shields. North Korean 107-mm Type1963 MLRS observed. RF expanding bridgehead in Volchansk. RF Naval Infantry advancing in Sumy Oblast. RF Army actively advancing in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF detailing movements and territorial control changes in Zaporizhzhia (Stepnohirsk, Orikhiv, Tokmak). RF has taken fire control of approximately 5 km of H-26 highway near Stepova Novoselivka, leading to Kupiansk. RF continues to advance on Konstantinovka direction, with "pincers closing." Putin observed "Zapad-2025" exercises. RF claims full control of Serebryansky forestry. VDV performing parachute and armored vehicle air-dropping operations during "Zapad-2025." Tactical map claiming RF is developing an offensive at the junction of DPR, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. RF claims "Anwar" special forces destroyed a Swedish "S-tank" while supporting an offensive towards Sumy (highly unusual, likely IO). Multiple videos claiming the liberation of Novopetrovskoye. RF claims UAF attacks on DPR border led to increased RF strikes on enemy rear. RF claims destruction of a Paladin SAU, and successful destruction of UAF attempts to cross Dnieper. Video of a captured Russian soldier, Mikhail Stepanov, describing harsh combat conditions, coercive tactics, and low morale. Forced evacuation from 18 settlements in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. "Akhmat" SpN Regiment FPV drone reconnaissance on Sumy direction. Duma committee approved veteran status for volunteers in assault units. RF claims "Sparta" unit destroyed a UAF UAV control post. RF and UAF-affiliated sources amplify Deep State's report that RF forces are entering and consolidating in residential areas of Kupiansk. The captured RF soldier claims his unit used a gas pipe to infiltrate Kupiansk. RF military expert claims UAF created powerful underground fortifications in residential Konstantinovka. RF claims an offensive behind Chasiv Yar, with airborne forces destroying enemy defenses. Special incendiary detachment of 16th Guards NBC Protection Brigade, "Vostok" Group, using thermobaric munitions on Vremevskoye direction. MoD Russia posts video features Russian soldiers discussing UAV attacks, small group infiltrations by AFU, and the establishment of a buffer zone. MoD Russia claim of destroying a 3-person Ukrainian DRG attempting to infiltrate Kursk Oblast near Tetkino. Colonelcassad posts drone footage claiming to show a destroyed UAF M1A1 Abrams tank on the Sumy front (unverified). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claims "Anwar" special forces hit a rare Swedish Strv 103 tank in the Sumy border region (unverified). MoD Russia posts video showcasing RF MLRS firing rounds. Colonelcassad claims RF forces successfully crossed the Volchya River and are advancing in eastern Ivanovka. MoD Russia posts video claiming a T-80BVM tank crew destroyed an enemy stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a message: "Family, friends, brothers and sisters, we urgently need drones🚀." Старше Эдды claims RF forces have taken control of the outskirts of Kupiansk. Операция Z amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" video claiming RF VDV are destroying UAF positions and advancing on the Sumy front. Colonelcassad posts map claiming assault groups occupied new positions south of Novoivanivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of captured Russian soldiers in Kupiansk detailing orders to kill Ukrainian men and infiltration via a gas pipe. ТАСС reports Russian sergeant Dinir Shavaleev broke into an enemy dugout alone and eliminated two Ukrainian soldiers. Два майора posts video regarding drone repair and creation for marine infantry on Sumy direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video of RF soldiers evacuating a heavy, injured soldier. MoD Russia posts video of T-72B3M tanks neutralizing UAF positions in the LPR. Colonelcassad posts new map updates detailing RF ground advances over the past 24 hours, particularly around Kupiansk. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Kotsnews post drone footage of artillery strikes by "Vostok" Group on UAF fortified positions near Gavrilovka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк claims 18 officers of the operational staff of the RF 35th Combined Arms Army were killed in a sabotage operation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (unverified by UAF, but casualty list adds credibility). «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» posts thermal and daylight drone footage from the Sumy direction showing interception of an enemy drone and strike on an "enemy antenna." MoD Russia posts a photo message summarizing the progress of the special military operation as of 18 September 2025. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a video showing a Russian T-72 variant tank maneuvering and firing. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video claiming RF forces eliminated a UAF platoon in Konstantinovka. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video of Solovyov proposing replacing Russian border guards with North Koreans. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of Ukrainian border guards striking three enemy vehicles and manpower in the Southern direction. Janus Putkonen posts an image with the caption "Army Corps Zapad-2025 ended and training troops are moving to real operations against Kyiv forces." Alex Parker Returns posts video about high financial incentives for contract service in Moscow (6M rubles annually, 3.1M lump sum, 260k salary, 10M debt forgiveness). MoD Russia posts video showing signal units of the Tsentr Group of Forces deploying a secured radio network between forward units and a command post in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Воин DV posts video detailing the situation on the Southern Donetsk direction, specifically mentioning fighting in Novoivanovka, and shows drone footage of artillery strikes. Рыбарь posts a tactical map overlay for "fights in the agglomeration." Операция Z amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" claiming RF Army is breaking through to Zaporizhzhia via Kamyanske and Plavni, citing Ukrainian speaker Voloshyn. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video quoting Putin on over 700,000 Russian military personnel on the line of contact. Воин DV posts photos of Russian tank brigade soldiers from Buryatia being awarded. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video with captured RF soldiers discussing murder charges. Colonelcassad reports a cluster Iskander strike on a UAF company tactical group near Druzhkivka. "Два майора" posts a message from Putin to State Duma leaders, emphasizing the government's reliance on their support, indicating an ongoing effort to maintain political cohesion for the war. "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" posts a photo message claiming a person accused of raping a minor stepdaughter was released to fight in the war, indicating continued controversial recruitment practices. "Николаевский Ванёк" posts an exclusive video of a captured Cuban national from the 81st Airmobile Brigade, providing HUMINT on RF recruitment of foreign nationals and their combat experience. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming strikes on UAF positions on the Donetsk direction. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition amplifies Putin's statement that the "combined grouping of Russian forces in the SMO zone is over 700,000 servicemen," claiming "our fighters have no equals in the world." Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming "Akhmat" special forces successfully used a KVN drone to strike a UAF pickup truck with infantry in a wooded area on the Kharkiv direction, claiming "3 dead fighters." Игорь Артамонов posts a photo message highlighting a father of three, a Cossack and patriot, serving as a volunteer on the front since 2022, indicating continued RF volunteer recruitment and morale boosting. Воин DV posts video of drone operators from the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade conducting effective strikes against enemy manpower in the Polozhskoye direction, demonstrating continued offensive operations. Два майора posts a video compilation, including what appears to be a Russian tank being destroyed by UAF forces, suggesting ongoing tactical losses for RF. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo of a tactical map claiming a critical situation in Kupiansk, implying potential RF advances or UAF tactical setbacks in the area. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" states that their unit is experiencing a "difficult period," indicating possible operational strain. Russian forces are distributing leaflets in Velyka Pysarivka, Sumy Oblast, calling for "evacuation." "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a video showing Russian military personnel loading crates with Cyrillic text onto a vehicle, indicating routine logistical operations. Colonelcassad highlights "Aid's" comments on shotguns against FPV drones, suggesting tactical adaptations. Военкор Котенок posts a video showing a mix of medical emergency response and military training/operations footage, with a caption indicating a deficit of medics at the front. Операция Z amplifies a video showing Russian President Vladimir Putin discussing the establishment of a federal holiday for veterans of special military operations. Colonelcassad posts video claiming successful FPV drone and artillery strikes by RF's 3rd Army Corps on a UAF 155mm M109A5 self-propelled howitzer near Konstantinovka, supporting claims of continued high-intensity combat and RF precision capabilities. Воин DV posts a video showing military vehicles and apparent combat in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by RF "CENTER" and "VOSTOK" groups, suggesting ongoing RF ground operations and pressure in the area. Два майора posts a photo message showing a body exchange, confirming the ongoing process of exchanging fallen soldiers between both sides. Alex Parker Returns posts a grim video showing decomposing bodies in military fatigues and a scorched forest, indicating recent heavy combat and significant casualties, likely RF losses given the channel's general bias. Colonelcassad posts video claiming an UAF DRG of 4 militants armed with a "Baba-Yaga" heavy hexacopter was destroyed on the right bank of the Dnieper in Kherson Oblast while attempting to cross to the left bank. Alex Parker Returns shares information from Russian sources alleging that Rostec structures are servicing UAF helicopters (Mi-8MT/MTB) via AAL Group Ltd., registered in the UAE. Colonelcassad posts video on Wagner Group training Belarusian forces for 2 years, highlighting their combat experience in Syria and Africa. Alex Parker Returns posts video depicting a green pickup truck with supplies driving through a heavily damaged village, possibly from a forward logistics operation. New intelligence shows that the Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration, Dmitry Kozak, has been dismissed. Colonelcassad has posted videos of an exhibition "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" in Moscow's Victory Museum, showcasing Russian military heroism and destroyed enemy equipment. This includes an interactive map of military operations. OSINT-analyst Brady Africk reports RF has recently built a new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast, 35 km from the Ukrainian border. "Военкоры Русской Весны" (amplified by Операция Z) claims a former UAF officer who defected in 2014 is commanding the Russian offensive on Kupiansk. ТАСС reports RF Deputy Commander of a VDV assault battalion claims UAF forces are abandoning NATO weapons during retreat in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ТАСС reports RF forces advanced near Kupyansk, specifically at Kucherovka and Petropavlovka, clearing a tree line and destroying a UAF fortified area. ТАСС posts a video claiming a Croatian citizen, who recently obtained Russian citizenship, surrendered to Russian FPV drone operators in Zaporizhzhia Oblast while serving with UAF. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message with the caption " Airborne brotherhood, good morning!", a morale-boosting message likely depicting RF VDV forces.
Air/Naval: High concentration of strategic bombers. "West-2025" and "Rubezh 2025" exercises ongoing, involving significant naval deployments and strategic aviation. OAK handed over another batch of new Su-34 fighter-bombers. RF launched three S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles and 75 drones (over 40 of them Shaheds) overnight. Tu-22M3 bombers patrolled over Barents Sea for "Zapad-2025." MoD Russia posts video of "Zapad 2025" Baltic Fleet repelling uncrewed surface vehicle attack. Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeployed. Baltic Fleet naval aviation conducted combat use of UMPK and Kh-31A anti-ship missiles. MoD Russia posts video of Iskander-M missile system electronic launches in Kaliningrad. MoD Russia and Basurin confirm successful missile launch from a submarine in Barents-Sea. Convoy of at least one military truck with two attack helicopters providing escort observed in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Bangladesh, India, Iran, Burkina Faso, Congo, and Mali participated in "Zapad-2025." Russia tested naval hypersonic weapons. "Massive use of unmanned aircraft and ground robots" as a feature of "Zapad-2025." Frigate "Admiral Golovko" conducted a Zircon hypersonic missile strike. MoD Russia posts video of "Zapad-2025" exercises showing landing craft disembarking BMPs and IL-76 transport aircraft conducting large-scale airdrops. Practical phase of "Zapad-2025" exercises concluded in Leningrad Oblast. RF strikes on railway infrastructure. UAF Air Force reports enemy tactical aviation activity in Sea of Azov, and КАБы on Kherson, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts. First regular flight from Moscow to Krasnodar since 2022. CSTO command-staff exercises "Rubezh-2025" began in Kyrgyzstan. Reports RF troops leaving Belarusian training grounds. Video showcasing a Russian naval parade. US Commerce Department denied "Belavia" permission to operate Boeing flights to Russia. UAF Air Force reports new launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aviation on the border of Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. UAF Air Force warns of a high-speed target heading towards Kharkiv. MoD Russia posts video of Il-38 anti-submarine aircraft conducting practical bombing of ground targets. UAF Air Force reports attack UAVs in Synelnykove, Novgorod-Siversky districts, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk Oblasts, and heading towards Kryvyi Rih district. An RF drone strike on a gas station in Poltava district. Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs (КАБ) on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photos of RF Su-25s flying low. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Zaliznychne, Rizdvyanka, Kamyanske, Hryhorivka, Veselyanka of Zaporizhzhia region, Antonivka, Inhulets of Kherson region, citing UAF General Staff. MoD Russia posts video compilation "Rubikon in action." Полиция Хабаровского края posts video of RF Minister of Internal Affairs Kolokoltsev visiting a police armaments exhibition in China. ТАСС reports Lavrov is planning to meet with UN Secretary-General Guterres. MoD Russia posts video showing Army Aviation Ka-52m helicopter hitting AFU manpower and armored vehicles in the Sever Group of Forces responsibility. Air Force of Ukraine reports tactical aviation activity in the northeast direction, specifically launching guided aerial bombs (КАБ) towards Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБы ➡️ на Донеччину! (Guided aerial bombs towards Donetsk Oblast!). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district). ТАСС reports the US State Department approved a possible sale of Javelin missiles to Poland for $780 million. ТАСС posts video of "Красноярск" and "Омск" nuclear submarines of the Pacific Fleet performing "Onyx" and "Granit" cruise missile launches in the Okhotsk Sea during exercises. Colonelcassad posts a video showcasing China's military development, specifically the testing of armed "robot dogs." The video shows a quadruped robot firing what appears to be an RPG.
UAV/EW: Persistent FPV drone operations, reconnaissance UAV activity. Claims of destroying 80 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. "Molniya-2" UAVs adapted with fiber optics. Mass Shahed launches from three locations. Claims destruction of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone via FPV drone. Russia has managed to create a "drone production empire". RF air defense claims 87 RF UAVs were shot down overnight. UAF Air Force warns of multiple groups of RF UAVs approaching Kharkiv via Vilcha, Vovchansk, and Slatyne. Video claiming 218th Guards Tank Regiment air defense battery clearing skies of enemy drones. "Zephyr-M" UAV. UAF Air Force reports several UAV groups past Derhachi, heading towards Kharkiv. Russian drone invaded Lithuania was launched from Belarus. UAF Air Force reports a group of UAVs (mopeds) heading towards Nizhyn, Chernihiv Oblast. "Drone safety" in Saratov, Tambov, Voronezh, Rostov, and Volgograd Oblasts. A fire at Morozovsk airfield in Rostov Oblast. UAF Air Force reports new groups of RF attack UAVs (mopeds) detected over Kherson Oblast, heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast. MoD Russia posts new video showcasing diverse drone activity. UAF Air Force reports UAVs in Poltava suburbs and multiple groups of UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast heading towards Kamianske. UAF Air Force reports new groups of RF attack UAVs (mopeds) moving through Okhtyrka district, Sumy Oblast, towards Poltava Oblast. New drone danger warning for Bryansk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a new RF UAV (moped) heading towards Myrhorod in Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a UAV in Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Baturyn. "Ostatok po mopedam" update. Video of the "Torn-MDM" complex being used during "Zapad-2025" exercises. RF anti-icing technology for UAVs for extreme cold. Plans for anti-drone protected security zones in Russian border areas. UAF General Staff states RF has used over 2000 drones. RF FPV drone strike on a minibus in Vasylivsky district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF air defense destroyed 8 enemy UAVs overnight. Enemy reconnaissance UAV in Zaporizhzhia. Enemy attack UAV in Kramatorsk. Video of a UAF soldier picking up an RF fiber-optic FPV drone "KVN", which then detonates. UAF Air Force, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-УкраїНА all report 136 RF UAVs shot down/suppressed out of 172 launched, including over 100 Shaheds. Video with an Orlan-30 drone operator discussing its EW resistance. Bakonov states an analog of Starlink will soon appear in Russia. Claims Russian "Geraniums" (Shaheds) hit two substations overnight. Video of "Akhmat" SpN Regiment FPV drone reconnaissance on Sumy direction. Roscosmos CEO reported Russia will soon have its own satellite communication terminal. UAF Air Force warns of a high-speed target heading towards Kharkiv. Kotsnews claims "Rubikon" fighters shot down 1000 enemy drones. UAF Air Force reports attack UAVs in Synelnykove, Novgorod-Siversky districts, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk Oblasts, and heading towards Kryvyi Rih district. Colonelcassad reports the development of a polyamide net capable of neutralizing 50-100% of the kinetic energy of loitering munitions. Kotsnews reports AI is being implemented in the process of updating the Ruviki encyclopedia at Kazan Digital Week 2025. Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming "Akhmat" special forces successfully used a KVN drone to strike a UAF pickup truck with infantry in a wooded area on the Kharkiv direction, claiming "3 dead fighters." Два майора posts a video showcasing a possible Russian drone destroying a Ukrainian tank, implying RF drone effectiveness. "Операция Z" amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" claiming "Otvazhnye" forces are using "BABA-YAGA" drones to destroy NATO equipment, infantry, and enemy positions near Pokrovsk. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report a fragment of a Russian "Gerbera" (likely a UAV) was discovered on a beach in Latvia, indicating potential operational failures or increased reconnaissance activity by RF near NATO borders. Prime Minister Shmyhal states Ukraine will use 1000 interceptor drones per day in the near future. This indicates an urgent and substantial scale-up of UAF counter-UAV capabilities. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement that Ukraine will use 1000 interceptor drones per day in the near future, indicating a strategic shift towards large-scale counter-UAV operations. New intelligence from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS indicates Ukraine is producing 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month and aims for 7 missiles daily by year-end, signaling an increase in domestic missile production. Николаевский Ванёк reports three UAVs approaching Pavlohrad, and subsequent defensive actions and successful downing of UAVs in Pavlohrad. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine report over 20 Shaheds are heading from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv. The Air Force of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast. РБК-Україна posts a video message reporting RF has recently built a new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast, 35 km from the Ukrainian border, attributed to OSINT-analyst Brady Africk. РБК-Україна also posts a tactical analysis of a satellite image of the Bryansk Oblast launch site. This new site likely implies an increased and more direct drone threat to northern Ukraine, particularly Kyiv and Sumy Oblasts. Воин DV posts a video showing FPV drone operators from RF intercepting Ukrainian UAVs in the sky of Donbass. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posted a video claiming to show aerial combat on the Zaporizhzhia front, displaying FPV drone footage, telemetry data, and what appears to be a Ukrainian drone targeting Russian equipment. This indicates active RF counter-drone operations and intense drone warfare.
Air Defense: Photos of a Pantsir-S1/S2 air defense system. RF air defense destroyed 10 enemy UAVs over Bryansk Oblast overnight. MoD Russia posts video of MiG-31bm fighter jets protecting long-range aircraft. PPO is working on drones in Kyiv Oblast and in Kyiv. Temporary flight restrictions at Volgograd, Kaluga, and Saratov airports. RF air defense intercepted and destroyed UAVs in five districts of Rostov Oblast. RF air defense destroyed 8 enemy UAVs overnight. UAF Air Force, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-УкраїНА all report 136 RF UAVs shot down/suppressed out of 172 launched. UAF Air Force reports the threat for Kharkiv has been lifted. RF MoD claims 6 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Belgorod Oblast. 7 RF UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in the evening. ТАСС reports PVO forces shot down six Ukrainian UAVs over Kursk, Belgorod, and Rostov Oblasts. The air raid alarm in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted. ASTRA reports temporary flight restrictions at Samara airport. Air Force of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeast. Николаевский Ванёк reports Pavlohrad began defending against the drone attack, with a subsequent successful downing of drones. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports an air raid alert, followed by an all-clear. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a UAV was shot down over Kyiv overnight, with debris falling in multiple locations, as confirmed by KMVA, indicating successful defensive action.

NEW INTELLIGENCE:

Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast (RF Claim): "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming the 1009th regiment destroyed UAF infantry in Volchansk. Footage shows explosions, smoke, and what appears to be incendiary munitions. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (UAF Report):: "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports on the consequences of enemy night attacks on Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast, indicating ongoing RF aerial activity and damage. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (UAF Report): "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" reports a 74-year-old man was injured due to an enemy attack on the Stepnohirsk community. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Kyiv (UAF Report): "РБК-Україна" and "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" report possible disruptions to card payments and ticket validation on high-speed trams and funiculars in Kyiv due to the night shelling. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Air Defense (Crimea): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) reports RF air defense destroyed 4 enemy UAVs over annexed Crimea overnight. ASTRA corroborates RF claims of 4 drones shot down over Crimea. (FACT, RF CLAIM) However, ASTRA also reports an attack on a Russian radar station in annexed Crimea, injuring two servicemen, indicating UAF successful penetration of RF air defense. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Pavlohrad Drone Attack: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (UAF source) reports RF massively attacked Pavlohrad with drones overnight. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF Air Defense Activity: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (UAF source) reports a group of UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast heading south. РБК-Україна corroborates with a map showing air alert zones. (FACT, UAF REPORT) NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also reports new UAV activity: 🛵 Чернігівщина: БпЛА на сході, курсом на захід та в центрі, курсом на схід. and 🛵 Небезпека застосування ворожих БпЛА на Сумщині! and 🛵 БпЛА в напрямку Чернігова. Перебувайте в укриттях! (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Air Defense Production: ТАСС (RF source) reports the "High-Precision Systems" holding delivered a batch of new "Pantsir-SMD" SAM systems to the RF Armed Forces. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Mining Policy: ТАСС (RF source) reports the Ministry of Energy does not expect new bans on cryptocurrency mining in RF regions soon. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Information Control: ТАСС (RF source) reports the list of Russian services and websites available during mobile network restrictions for security purposes will be updated weekly. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Drone Superiority Claim: Операция Z (RF source) amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" video claiming "Rubikon" (Lekka-100 drone) achieves air superiority. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
RF Civilian Casualties (Belgorod): ASTRA (RF source) reports two people were injured in Belgorod Oblast due to drone strikes. (FACT, RF REPORT)
UAF Deep Strike (Kursk Oblast): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) posts video claiming SSO struck a logistics hub of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade (OBRMPS) in Kursk Oblast. (FACT, UAF CLAIM) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS corroborates this with video evidence of the strike, showing an industrial or military complex. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)
Geopolitical Speculation (Venezuela): Рыбарь (RF source) posts about forecasts of a possible US invasion of Venezuela. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Israel's Iron Beam (Два майора): "Два майора" posts video claiming Israel's Iron Beam laser air defense system is ready for use this year. (FACT, RF REPORT on foreign military technology).
Kyiv Drone Debris (UAF Report): Оперативний ЗСУ reports an unexploded enemy UAV was found in Shevchenkivskyi district, Kyiv, with specialists working on site. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Vremevsky Direction (RF Drone Ops): Воин DV posts video claiming drone operators of the 5th Guards Army "Vostok" Group are active on the Vremevsky direction, showing thermal imagery and explosions. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Overnight Strikes (RF Claim): Операция Z amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" video claiming massive strikes were carried out overnight against enemy targets in Pavlohrad, Kyiv, and Sumy. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
UAF Air Defense Success: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, and Генеральний штаб ЗСУ all report 71 RF UAVs shot down/suppressed out of 86 launched overnight. РБК-Україна corroborates this, but notes a new group is already airborne. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Cruise Missile Launches (Okhotsk Sea): Басурин о главном reports RF Project 667BDRM (Delta IV) class submarines "Krasnoyarsk" and "Omsk" conducted cruise missile launches (likely Onyx) in the Okhotsk Sea during exercises. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Japan Railgun Test (Colonelcassad): Colonelcassad reports Japan conducted test firing of an electromagnetic railgun from a ship against a target vessel at sea. (FACT, RF REPORT on foreign military technology)
КАБ Launches (Sumy Oblast): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБ launches on Sumy Oblast (Khotin community). (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Vyborog Flooding (RF Report): Север.Реалии reports heavy flooding in Vyborog, Leningrad Oblast, causing power outages. (FACT, RF REPORT)
New RF Drone Video (Air Cover): Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts video claiming to show RF drone air cover for assault groups, countering UAF heavy copters. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Russian Internal Security (Cocaine): ТАСС reports FSB and FTS thwarted cocaine smuggling (1750 kg, 20 billion rubles). (FACT, RF REPORT)

UAF Forces:

Defensive: Actively defending across all major axes, repelling numerous RF assaults (11 in Kursk/Sumy directions, 2 in Kherson). President Zelenskyy met with soldiers of the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade, highlighting their participation in the defense of Myrnohrad. Presidential Brigade of UAF posts video showing night combat operations on the front, emphasizing vigilance. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts video of the UAF 1st Assault Battalion holding its front line in Zaporizhzhia and destroying enemy forces with FPV drones, confirming strong defensive posture. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts photos of President Zelenskyy meeting with the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade at their command post, acknowledging their participation in the defense of Mirnohrad and the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation. Олександр Вілкул provides a briefing outlining the continuation of systemic aid to the military, including specialized vehicles, trucks, and 10 DJI Matrice 4T quadcopters for the 77th Airmobile Brigade, reinforcing defensive posture. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a video showing defensive actions with significant engagements on Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Kupiansk directions. Kyiv subway's red line services partially suspended due to an air raid alarm, indicating a defensive control measure. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's operational update confirms UAF repelled the majority of RF assaults on all key axes, demonstrating strong defensive posture and effectiveness. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a UAV was shot down over Kyiv overnight, with debris falling in multiple locations, as confirmed by KMVA, indicating successful defensive action.
Localized Counter-Offensives: Confirmed liberation of Pankivka, Donetsk Oblast, and Zarichne. UAF reports eliminating a Russian breakthrough near Pokrovsk with ongoing cleanup operations. The "STRIKS" unit's successful strikes on the Southern Slobozhansky direction and border guard strikes on RF vehicles demonstrate tactical offensive readiness. President Zelenskyy's visit to Donetsk Oblast, where he discussed liberated territories and met with soldiers of the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation, confirms active UAF offensive operations, including 160 sq km liberated and 7 settlements freed. The 1st Assault Regiment successfully repelled an RF "pincer" maneuver near Dobropillya. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts video of the "STRIKS" unit (4th Border Guard Detachment) successfully destroying two enemy positions, a shelter, a BMP, and two vehicles (one with ammunition) on the Southern Slobozhansky direction using FPV drones, indicating continued effective localized offensive action. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts photos of President Zelenskyy meeting with the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade at their command post, acknowledging their participation in the defense of Mirnohrad and the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation, and discussing a "Dobropillya counter-offensive operation." Оперативний ЗСУ posts video depicting drone footage of Ukrainian military positions, specifically trenches, being targeted and struck by munitions, with a logo of what appears to be a Ukrainian military insignia and a unit emblem with drones and an eagle, suggesting successful counter-offensive actions or defensive strikes against enemy positions. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a video compilation showing intense combat engagements from a drone's perspective on the Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Kupiansk directions, documenting numerous RF artillery strikes and personnel losses. Two Ukrainian reconnaissance companies, including the "VARTOVI" unmanned systems battalion of Mykolaiv marines, are actively engaging Russian military assets, targeting vehicle convoys, artillery, and infantry positions. UAF drone operators from the 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" successfully destroyed eight Russian assault troops on the Pokrovsk direction.
High Readiness in Key Sectors: Sustained commitment of forces in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction and efforts to hold Kupiansk demonstrate readiness. Visual confirmation of the 77th Airmobile Brigade's presence.
Tactical Drone Integration: Extensive use of FPV and thermal-imaging drones for night operations and precision strikes (Azov Brigade, "Shadow" unit), including new 10-inch FPV drones from volunteer efforts. New cooperation agreement with Poland on drones, and joint operational group on UAVs. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of the 1st Assault Battalion using FPV drones against RF checkpoints and transport. President Zelenskyy's discussions with commanders of the 82nd Air Assault Brigade explicitly included drone systems. "Підрозділ Shadow" posts video of successful drone strikes on RF shelters, confirming continued effective tactical drone use. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts video of the UAF 1st Assault Battalion destroying enemy forces with FPV drones in Zaporizhzhia, highlighting effective drone integration for long-range engagements. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts video of the "STRIKS" unit's FPV drone successes on the Southern Slobozhansky direction, further confirming advanced tactical drone integration. Олександр Вілкул posts a briefing detailing the transfer of 10 DJI Matrice 4T quadcopters to the 77th Airmobile Brigade. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a photo message featuring a drone with the caption "Дальність? Вітер? Борт заармовано?" (Range? Wind? Board armed?), indicating UAF's technical focus on drone operations. The "VARTOVI" unmanned systems battalion and 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" are actively demonstrating effective drone operations. Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement about Ukraine using 1000 interceptor drones daily indicates an immediate and significant scaling of UAF counter-UAV capabilities. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement that Ukraine will use 1000 interceptor drones per day in the near future, indicating a strategic shift towards large-scale counter-UAV operations. New intelligence from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS indicates Ukraine is producing 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month and aims for 7 missiles daily by year-end, signaling an increase in domestic missile production. Николаевский Ванёк reports three UAVs approaching Pavlohrad, and subsequent downing of drones. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine report over 20 Shaheds are heading from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv. The Air Force of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast. РБК-Україна posts a video message reporting RF has recently built a new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast, 35 km from the Ukrainian border, attributed to OSINT-analyst Brady Africk. РБК-Україна also posts a tactical analysis of a satellite image of the Bryansk Oblast launch site. This new site likely implies an increased and more direct drone threat to northern Ukraine, particularly Kyiv and Sumy Oblasts. Воин DV posts a video showing FPV drone operators from RF intercepting Ukrainian UAVs in the sky of Donbass. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posted a video claiming to show aerial combat on the Zaporizhzhia front, displaying FPV drone footage, telemetry data, and what appears to be a Ukrainian drone targeting Russian equipment. This visual confirmation reinforces UAF's active and successful use of drones in combat.
Personnel Mobilization: DPSU is transferring data on men attempting to illegally cross the border to TCCs. The new Law on the Military Ombudsman indicates a focus on personnel welfare. Training activities by the Zaporizhzhia Center for National Resistance. РБК-Україна posts a photo message claiming a Ministry of Defense official was exposed in an evasion scheme, indicating ongoing efforts to combat corruption related to mobilization. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo message reporting the exposure of heads of military medical commissions in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts who helped military personnel transfer to rear units for bribes, indicating continued issues with personnel integrity within the mobilization system.
Morale: Exhibitions for Tank Troops Day and commemoration of rescuers. Positive messaging about the 77th Airmobile Brigade. Discussions with families of POW/MIA personnel. Opening of a memorial alley in Zaporizhzhia. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts reinforcing soldier camaraderie. President Zelenskyy has visited a command post of the Air Assault Forces (DSHV) in Donetsk Oblast, discussing active defense, training, manning, and drone systems. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (Kharkiv ODA Head) posts photo messages about stable mobile communication and internet being guaranteed even under enemy shelling. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of captured Russian soldiers, including one who claims to have been captured just two weeks after signing a contract. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts photo messages of President Zelenskyy awarding soldiers participating in the Dobropillya counter-offensive. "Николаевский Ванёк" posts an exclusive video of a captured Cuban mercenary, providing HUMINT on RF recruitment of foreign nationals and their combat experience. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts photos of President Zelenskyy meeting with the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade at their command post, acknowledging their participation in the defense of Mirnohrad and the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo message announcing the opening of a mental health center for military personnel, veterans, and their families in Ternopil, highlighting UAF efforts to support the well-being of its forces and their families. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" is running a fundraiser/raffle for a "cool shell casing," indicative of continued grassroots support and morale-boosting efforts. "Оперативний ЗСУ" is actively soliciting donations for troops on the Pokrovsk direction, demonstrating continued public engagement in supporting the military. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video showing the Motherland Monument in Kyiv illuminated with patriotic laser projections ("UNITY", "VOLIA"), directly reinforcing UAF morale and national identity. STERNENKO posts a message encouraging donations, connecting financial contributions to reducing Russian presence.
Internal Security: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video with captured RF soldiers discussing murder charges. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the conviction of a "Rashist" (Russian) who oversaw the "Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation" during the occupation of Kherson, signaling continued UAF efforts to prosecute collaborators and war criminals. РБК-Україна refutes claims of a "data leak" from e-Notariat (Ukrainian electronic notary system) are false and that Ukrainian data is secure, indicating continued efforts to counter disinformation regarding internal security. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts multiple photo messages related to RF casualties.
External Support: NATO confirms the first US weapons delivery under PURL (Presidential Ukraine Reconnaissance and Logistics) has arrived in Ukraine, with more expected soon. РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS corroborate this. Олександр Вілкул's briefing details the transfer of 6.423 million UAH in aid to the 77th Airmobile Brigade, including private funds, from Кривий Ріг. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 posts a photo message highlighting that the USA and Great Britain signed a technology cooperation agreement. ТАСС reports the EU is discussing using frozen RF assets for a loan to Kyiv, bypassing Hungary, indicating continued EU support initiatives. РБК-Україна posts a photo message stating Zelenskyy invited Qatar to a summit in New York regarding the return of Ukrainian children, indicating ongoing international diplomatic efforts to address humanitarian issues. Reuters reports the EU plans to accelerate its rejection of Russian LNG due to pressure from Trump. This signals continued strong international support for decoupling from Russian energy. Рыбарь posts an image depicting the Polish Navy's projected strength, providing intelligence on regional force disposition. Bloomberg reports the EU plans to accelerate its rejection of Russian LNG due to pressure from Trump. This signals continued strong international support for decoupling from Russian energy. РБК-Україна reports Poland is conducting large-scale checks of bomb shelters. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a photo showing Rustem Umierov (Secretary of NSDC) and Patrick Turner (Head of NATO Representation in Ukraine) in a meeting, discussing security guarantees, indicating continued high-level engagement between Ukraine and NATO. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports that part of the weapons purchased by the EU from the USA for Kyiv has already arrived in Ukraine, confirming continued material support. ТАСС reports the US State Department approved a possible sale of Javelin missiles to Poland for $780 million. РБК-Україна reports that Rustem Umierov (Secretary of NSDC) met with Patrick Turner (Head of NATO Representation in Ukraine) to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine.

NEW INTELLIGENCE:

Kryvyi Rih Situation: Олександр Вілкул (UAF source) reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of the morning of 19.09.25. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Pavlohrad Drone Attack: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (UAF source) reports RF massively attacked Pavlohrad with drones overnight. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
General Staff Update (UAF Report): "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" provides operational information as of 08:00, 19.09.2025, stating UAF repelled 10 enemy assaults in the Southern Slobozhansky direction (Staromayorske district), 8 in the Orikhiv direction (Robotyne, Verkhnya Tersa, Novodanylivka, Stepnohirska communities), and 1 in the Kherson direction (Krynyk). UAF confirmed 70 combat engagements over the past day. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF Fundraising: "STERNENKO" reports collecting an additional 8 million UAH for the UAF yesterday. (FACT, UAF REPORT) NEW: STERNENKO further posts an image indicating more coffee/donations are "flying" to cut down "Russians." (FACT, UAF REPORT)
IAEA Resolution: РБК-Україна (UAF source) reports the IAEA General Conference adopted a resolution calling on Russia to return control of the Zaporizhzhia NPP to Ukraine. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
EU LNG Policy: "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports Bloomberg's statement that the EU plans to reject Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) as quickly as possible. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Kyiv Memorial: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts photo messages commemorating fallen defenders from Kyiv. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Minute of Silence (UAF): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ, and Офіс Генерального прокурора post messages commemorating a nationwide minute of silence for fallen soldiers. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Nationalization: Север.Реалии reports the nationalization of the "Музыка" publishing house in Russia. (FACT, RF REPORT)
UAF FPV Interceptors: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts a video showcasing the "most effective FPV interceptor pilot" of the 71st Separate Jaeger Brigade of the Air Assault Forces (DSHV), highlighting their role in reconnaissance and striking enemy equipment. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Internal UAF Corruption: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the detention in Dnipro of a former military unit commander who allegedly organized a "profitable scheme for desertion." (FACT, UAF REPORT)
POW/MIA Family Meeting: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) reports a meeting with families of captured and missing defenders from various brigades. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Civilian Presence in Kherson Region: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video of a man in military attire in a watermelon field in Vinogradova, Kherson region, with the caption "My field - my watermelons!" (FACT, UAF-aligned report, suggests UAF presence in civilian-populated areas of Kherson).
UAF Naval Operations (Tendra Spit): РБК-Україна posts video claiming GUR special forces landed on Tendra Spit and ambushed RF forces, destroying a landing craft. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Kupiansk/Lyman POWs (UAF Claim): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming soldiers of the 425th Regiment "Skelya" captured 17 POWs in a week on the Pokrovsk and Lyman directions. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)
Southern Front Civilian Shelling: Сили оборони Півдня України (UAF source) reports RF conducted 7 shellings on 6 settlements in the Southern operational zone yesterday, affecting civilians. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Southern Front Shahed Interceptions: Сили оборони Півдня України (UAF source) reports 3 Shahed-136/131 UAVs were destroyed in the Southern operational zone yesterday. (FACT, UAF REPORT)

1.4. Information Environment (Cognitive domain)

Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (Confidence: HIGH):

RF Narratives: RF is heavily amplifying claims of "chaos and disorganization" and a "failed defense" in Kupiansk, leveraging quotes from Ukrainian military bloggers to lend false credibility. The claim of breakthroughs to Zaporizhzhia via Kamyanske and Plavni, citing a UAF speaker, is an attempt to amplify perceived UAF weakness. "РБК-Україна" reports on an alleged "conflict between GUR and the President's Office," which RF IO will immediately amplify to sow discord and undermine confidence in Ukrainian leadership and C2. Extensive reporting on FSB thwarting "terrorist attacks" in St. Petersburg, detaining "Ukrainian intelligence agents," and capturing "extremists," alongside the sentencing of a school guard for a Bucha repost, a resident for VKontakte audio recordings, and a new fine for wishing death to Russian soldiers, serves to project an image of a secure and capable state, while demonizing Ukraine and suppressing dissent. The narrative of "Colombian mercenaries organizing criminal business" in Ukraine also serves to discredit foreign fighters and link the conflict to criminality. Reports of detentions in Britain for spying for Russia also fit this narrative. The harsh 14-year sentence for a Zaporizhzhia resident supporting UAF reinforces the narrative of stringent control and suppression of dissent in occupied territories. The release of Baza producer Lukyanova to house arrest is a nuanced internal security narrative. The "drunk serviceman" in St. Petersburg hospital is also a negative internal security incident. Colonelcassad amplifies explanation from "Saperavi" restaurant on "Russophobic video," indicating RF's continued active monitoring and response to internal dissent and narratives. TASS reports Baza editor-in-chief Trifonov admitted guilt, confirming continued internal security operations targeting media perceived as hostile. Putin's statements on migration policy reinforce a narrative of strong internal security and control. TASS reports three Russian children were added to "Myrotvorets," a clear narrative to demonize Ukraine and portray Russians as victims. Claims of destroying Swedish "S-tanks" and "NATO supersystems" (e.g., PzH 2000), and "liberating Novonikolaevka," "Malaya Tokmachka," and Otradnoye, aim to exaggerate RF battlefield achievements and discredit Western military aid. New claims of precision strikes by Tornado-S MLRS crews in Konstantinovka, allegedly eliminating a UAF platoon. The "IPSO with cats" aims to humanize RF soldiers. The amplification of a 1000:24 UAF to RF body exchange ratio (highly likely exaggerated) reinforces the narrative of high UAF casualties. Promotion of financial incentives for contract soldiers also aims to project military strength and attractiveness. Putin's claims of 700,000 personnel on the line of contact is a significant IO effort to project scale. The awarding of soldiers from a tank brigade in Buryatia (Воин DV) serves to boost military morale and project success. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's video featuring Putin alongside individuals with "Z" symbols, implying that pardoned criminals are being presented as a "replacement" (замена) for those in power or for military service, aims to normalize controversial recruitment practices, although БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС's framing is highly critical. Colonelcassad reports a cluster Iskander strike on a UAF company tactical group, portraying RF precision strike capability. TASS reports Russia gaining control of "Музыка" publishing house with a 150-year archive, which can be spun as a victory of cultural influence and control. "Рыбарь" posts "Radicals at the doorstep" - a clear IO attempt to demonize Ukrainian nationalist groups and portray them as an existential threat, often used to justify RF actions. Reports on heating season starting, domestic incidents (crocodiles in "Moskvarium", MinFin's wine commentary, family mortgage discussions, protein quality reports, housing construction, sports nutrition labeling), and political appointments/resignations (Kozak, Gerasimov's extension - Colonelcassad) aim to project an image of stability and normalcy within Russia, despite the ongoing conflict. Discounting regional debts also contributes to this narrative. Putin's meeting with faction leaders (TASS) is framed as normal governance. RF assisting citizens in Gaza is a foreign policy normalcy report. Gold export restrictions suggest economic control, framed as stability. The wrestling tournament in Chechnya also projects regional pride and normalcy. The Veterans Association promotes patriotism and community. High financial incentives for contract soldiers aim to attract and retain personnel. Putin's integration of SMO veterans into political parties aims to further nationalize the war effort. Putin's comments on Stalingrad and macro-economic stability are designed for public reassurance. Putin's claims of lowest unemployment highlight economic normalcy. Putin's discussions on inflation (ТАСС) are part of this narrative of economic control and stability. New, highly inflammatory narratives claiming UAF attacked an ambulance in Oleshky and an FPV drone operator deliberately killed a civilian hostage on the Krasnolimansky direction. These are likely false flag operations or misattributed incidents designed to demonize UAF. RF is amplifying a UAF commander's statement predicting winter blackouts due to shelling, to further demoralize and signal continued attacks. Propaganda about "Europe pays, USA earns" directly targets the transatlantic alliance, aiming to sow discord and undermine support for Ukraine. Reports of US domestic issues and French protests against a defense factory (TASS report on Paris protests) are used to highlight Western internal divisions and problems. The satirical BBC headline about Macron is a direct attack. Lavrov's statements blaming the EU for prolonging the conflict reinforce this. Trump's statements that "Putin let me down" regarding Ukraine (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, Операция Z) and Starmer's discussions on "how to make Putin agree to peace" (РБК-УкраїНА, ASTRA) are being carefully monitored and likely spun by RF IO to highlight perceived Western confusion or disagreements. ТАСС also reports Trump's hope for "good news" regarding Ukraine settlement, further adding to the narrative of Western figures pushing for a resolution. TASS amplifies Trump's claims that falling oil prices could end the conflict, an IO narrative to shift blame and pressure Western economic policy. Alex Parker Returns amplifies Trump's "Putin let me down" statement, but frames it as crying, potentially for humorous or dismissive effect. TASS reports protests in Paris against austerity, explicitly linking them to "Katyusha" music, portraying Western internal disunity and anti-government sentiment. РБК-Україна reports Trump wants to return troops to Afghanistan, possibly as an IO attempt to highlight perceived US strategic missteps or a shift in focus away from Ukraine. TASS amplifies Trump's statement that the "threat of World War 3 has passed," aiming to portray RF as having de-escalated and to implicitly blame the West for initial tensions. "Операция Z" amplifies Trump's confused statement about "Azerbaijan and Albania," intending to portray Western leadership as inept and disorganized. Solovyov's proposal to replace Russian border guards with North Koreans, while presented as a discussion, could be a subtle IO effort to float the idea of greater North Korean involvement in the conflict or security arrangements. The claim that "Zapad-2025 ended and training troops are moving to real operations against Kyiv forces" (Janus Putkonen) is a direct IO threat, aiming to create fear and divert UAF resources. The proposal from RF Ministry of Defense "politruks" to create a state concept for "constructing the image of Russia's enemy" indicates a more formalized and long-term approach to information warfare, aiming to unify internal support and justify aggression. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА's memorial graphic, while seemingly commemorating, is an RF IO attempt to highlight UAF losses, particularly from special forces. The "Fate of a Man" video aims to humanize the conflict from an RF perspective. The video about a restaurant manager making anti-Russian statements aims to highlight and suppress internal dissent or perceived threats to the RF narrative. The "kolkhoz woman" video also aims to identify and demonize internal dissent. Zakharova's briefing on Lavrov's UNGA plans highlights RF's diplomatic efforts on the international stage. Рыбарь's "Trap for Turks" image, though artistic, suggests IO targeting specific international relationships, likely related to NATO or regional influence. Colonelcassad highlights a Saudi-Pakistan mutual defense pact, likely intending to show a shifting global alignment away from Western influence. MoD Russia meeting with Nigerian Chief of Defence Staff is used to project growing global partnerships. "Colonelcassad" posts a book cover of "Sudzha. There and back," likely intending to reinforce the narrative of RF presence and control in border regions, and potentially to commemorate or romanticize military actions. "Kotsnews" posts a video of Putin thanking State Duma deputies, a clear IO effort to project internal unity and strong leadership. "Рыбарь" posts an image with the caption "Radicals at the doorstep," aiming to frame Ukrainian nationalist groups as a threat and justify RF actions. ASTRA reports that "Peace to All" has been declared "undesirable" in Russia, indicating intensified suppression of dissent and anti-war sentiment. Colonelcassad posts a photo message stating that Tetyana Chornovol has been appointed to the Verkhovna Rada "instead of the killed Parubiy," and claims she "has a certificate of schizophrenia." This is a direct RF IO attack to discredit Ukrainian political figures and institutions. Игорь Артамонов posts a photo message promoting a father of three, a Cossack and patriot, serving as a volunteer on the front since 2022, aimed at boosting morale and volunteerism. Военкор Котенок reports that European media is writing about Poles conducting a large-scale revision of bomb shelters in preparation for a possible war with Russia, which is RF IO amplifying perceived NATO fear and justifying RF military posture. Операция Z amplifies a "Военкоры Русской Весны" report claiming "every third Pole will leave Poland if Russia attacks," which is a clear RF IO tactic to sow fear and demonstrate perceived weakness in Poland. STERNENKO posts a video of Donald Trump stating that Putin "kills many people" and "loses more people than he kills," and that "Russian soldiers are dying more than Ukrainian," which is US-based IO but will be amplified by UAF. Рыбарь posts a video on "illegals as a threat to Kazakhstan" which is an RF IO effort to promote internal security narratives and link migration to threats, potentially aiming to justify tighter border controls or influence regional policy. Alex Parker Returns reports Trump's statement that the "Ukrainian conflict no longer threatens World War III," which RF IO will amplify to project a de-escalatory narrative. Новости Москвы posts a photo message about "Tanuki preparing to open a restaurant on the Moon," a clear RF IO attempt to distract from the conflict and project normalcy. Глеб Никитин posts a video presenting a "Sports Nizhny Novgorod" metaverse, a soft power IO effort to project Russian technological advancement and civic engagement. Два майора posts a video "Ukrainian Record or At the sight of a Russian drone, take off your hat," which is a clear RF IO effort to portray Russian drone superiority and demoralize UAF. Kotsnews posts a video "Evening Bell" with images of the LADA Niva production line, which is an RF IO attempt to project civilian industrial normalcy and resilience. "Два майора" posts a video promoting the "depoliticization" of Joseph Stalin's contribution to WWII, a clear RF IO attempt to rehabilitate Stalin's image and leverage historical narratives for contemporary political goals. "Рыбарь" posts a video titled "Timely Terrorist Attack" (Своевременный теракт), which depicts armed individuals in an urban environment with Arabic exclamations. This is likely an RF IO attempt to link terrorism to external actors or to preemptively blame UAF for any internal incidents, potentially indicating a false flag operation or an attempt to divert attention. Colonelcassad posts images of a public protest in Paris, aiming to highlight Western internal disunity and instability. "Новости Москвы" posts a photo message about an iPhone launch, a blatant RF IO attempt to distract from the conflict and project normalcy. "РБК-Україна" reports that a former Ukrainian brigadier general who betrayed Ukraine in 2014 is commanding the assault on Kupiansk, which RF IO will amplify to portray internal Ukrainian weakness and defection. TASS reports RF is challenging the ICAO decision on MH17 at the ICJ. TASS reports Володин stated the State Duma will support the Ministry of Economic Development on migration issues, reinforcing the narrative of state control and internal stability. Alex Parker Returns broadcasts a statement from Trump saying it is "not the time to ask Putin for a ceasefire", which RF IO will leverage to depict Western disunity and an inability to influence Russian policy. ASTRA reports details of a school attack in Voronezh Oblast with the caption "You won't live, I'm already close." This serves RF IO to highlight internal security threats and potentially justify tightening controls. TASS reports the former Deputy Head of Khimki, Kaygorodov, was detained for large-scale fraud. This internal RF legal action will be spun as a fight against corruption, maintaining an image of rule of law. Операция Z amplifies Trump's statement about not asking Putin for a ceasefire, reinforcing RF IO on Western disunity. ТАСС reports the USA in the UN Security Council vetoed a resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. Alex Parker Returns posts inflammatory photo and video messages against "Ukrainians" and "Nazis," using a meme of Navalny as a zombie. ТАСС reports Trump expressed hope that the incident in Poland (likely referring to the F-16 missile incident from prior reports) was caused by loss of drone control. РБК-Україна reports Trump stating that relations between Putin and Zelenskyy are "terrible" and they "hate each other." РБК-Україна shares a video of Donald Trump commenting on the incident where Russian drones entered Polish airspace. Trump expresses disappointment in Putin and claims he could have ended the war quickly, indicating RF IO will likely spin this as Western confusion or disagreement on Russian actions, or a sign of Trump's desire for a quick resolution. Оперативний ЗСУ amplifies Trump's statement, "Russian drones should not have attacked Poland: they were quickly put out of action, and I don't want to comment on this," indicating UAF IO is monitoring and leveraging perceived contradictions or uncertainties in Western statements regarding border incidents. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message amplifying Trump's statement that relations between Putin and Zelensky are "terrible" and they "hate each other," serving as RF IO to portray an irreconcilable conflict. РБК-Україна further amplifies Trump's statements, emphasizing his disappointment in Putin and the mutual hatred between Putin and Zelenskyy, but also adding Trump's belief that "we will find a solution," creating a complex narrative that RF IO will try to exploit. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo and video message about an "Entrance forbidden to Jews" sign in Northern Germany, linking it to rising antisemitism and likely aiming to draw parallels with historical injustices or highlight European societal issues, potentially to deflect from RF's own actions or criticize European values. ТАСС posts a photo message with a caption criticizing "begging for protection from the aggressor," directly aiming to discredit Western aid to Ukraine and portray Ukraine as dependent. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message claiming Rostec structures service UAF helicopters, intended to create distrust and suggest internal corruption/collaboration. Colonelcassad posts a video depicting the destruction of a UAF "Baba-Yaga" heavy hexacopter and DRG, designed to project RF defensive successes and UAF losses. Colonelcassad also promotes Wagner Group training in Belarus, emphasizing their "unique combat experience" to portray RF and allied military superiority. Alex Parker Returns posts images and videos of a damaged residential area, but with a text that states it cannot be used for military analysis, an odd meta-commentary that could be a subtle IO tactic itself, or a poorly executed one. MoD Russia posts "Top News Today" as a collage, serving as a general IO effort to project activity and control the narrative of daily events. ТАСС reports Putin released Kozak from his position as Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration, indicating a high-level personnel change which RF IO will attempt to frame positively. Alex Parker Returns publishes a photo message indicating a proposal for new "contributions from restaurant checks for SVO needs," framed as a positive citizen initiative for the war effort, while implicitly criticizing an "endless source of funding" in "one special republic" (likely referring to Chechnya), indicating subtle internal RF IO. Новости Москвы posts a video of S7 Airlines presenting new employee uniforms, a blatant RF IO attempt to project normalcy and a functioning civilian economy. ТАСС reports Trump believes China is ready to finalize the TikTok sale to US companies, demonstrating RF's continued monitoring and reporting on international business and geopolitical events, often for IO purposes. Colonelcassad posts a photo message quoting Trump saying it is "not the time to ask Putin for a ceasefire," which RF IO will amplify to project RF strength and an unwavering stance. Minister of Finance Siluanov's statement on an expected 12-13% key rate for the 2026 budget indicates continued focus on economic stability messaging. Операция Z amplifies a Business Insider report predicting a world crisis in 2026, which RF IO will likely leverage to portray Western economic instability. Colonelcassad posts videos and images from the "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition, promoting RF military heroism and displaying destroyed enemy equipment (unattributed to specific units). "Военкоры Русской Весны" (amplified by Операция Z) claims a former UAF officer who defected in 2014 is commanding the Russian offensive on Kupiansk, a narrative that RF will leverage to sow discord within UAF. RF IO is actively disseminating content (Операция Z) that claims "shooting and explosions" in Kyiv, aiming to amplify the psychological impact of the drone attack and generate panic or demoralization among the Ukrainian population. Рыбарь's recent message (🇺🇸🇻🇪Вы думаете, это реально оказалась по итогу лодка с 60-тью наркосами?) could be a diversionary tactic to draw attention away from the Kyiv attack and other RF military actions. ТАСС reports that the "Fair Russia — For Truth" party proposes to increase maternity capital for a second child to 1 million rubles and for a third to 1.5 million rubles. This is RF IO aimed at boosting internal morale and addressing demographic challenges, projecting stability and state care. Операция Z reports on a man discussing salary disparities between military and civilian personnel in Ukraine. This is an RF IO attempt to sow discord, highlight perceived economic hardship, and potentially portray military service as economically unviable or emotionally taxing in Ukraine. ТАСС reports Roskomnadzor (Russian federal service for supervision in the sphere of communications) blocked over 70,000 fraudulent SIM cards using internal systems of the domestic messenger Max. This is an RF IO effort to project effective internal security and control over digital communications, likely to reassure the public and potentially to signal greater control over information flow. TASS reports that individuals involved in the murder of General Kirillov have been accused of organizing a terrorist community. This is an RF IO message to project internal security and control. TASS reports an interview with Viktor Vodolatsky, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee for CIS Affairs, Eurasian Integration, and Relations with Compatriots, stating that the settlement process in Ukraine could drag on until Trump's victory over the "deep state." This is a significant RF IO effort to leverage perceived Western internal divisions and to project a long-term, politically-influenced conflict resolution timeline favorable to RF. The video also features nationalistic rhetoric, emphasizing Russian historical resilience and asserting confidence in Russia's eventual victory and reclaiming of historical lands. This reinforces a narrative of historical destiny and inevitable triumph. РБК-Україна posts a photo message stating Russia has appealed the ICAO decision regarding MH17 at the UN Court. This is a continuation of RF's legal and information warfare to deny responsibility. ТАСС posts a video claiming a Croatian citizen, who recently obtained Russian citizenship, surrendered to Russian FPV drone operators in Zaporizhzhia Oblast while serving with UAF. This is an RF IO attempt to demonstrate UAF disorganization and RF success. Рыбарь posts a daily situation summary, "Chronicle of the SMO for September 18," indicating continued structured RF information dissemination.
UAF Narratives: Emphasis on repelling RF assaults, successful deep strikes (Salavat refinery, Buk-M2), and the capture of RF personnel (425th Regiment "Skelya", "STRIKS" unit successes, border guard strikes, SBU agent detention, Kharkiv spotter detention, 35th Combined Arms Army casualties list) reinforces UAF's fighting capability and resolve. Zelenskyy's report of successful counter-offensive in Donetsk Oblast, including liberated territory and significant RF casualties, is a major boost to this narrative. The active public fundraising for advanced FPV drones ("best drones to work with") is a key part of this narrative. Reconnaissance personnel are highlighted as key to victory. The destroyed Poltava monument helicopter also serves as a symbol of resilience. UAF artillery displaying adaptability and continuous operation also reinforces this. President Zelenskyy's direct engagement with frontline units in Donetsk Oblast and the 82nd Air Assault Brigade command post further supports this narrative. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts reinforcing soldier morale. The 1st Assault Regiment's success near Dobropillya reinforces this. President Zelenskyy meeting with 79th Air Assault Brigade soldiers directly supports the narrative of resilience and success, highlighting specific unit involvement in current operations. The arrival of US PURL weapons is a strong narrative for continued international support and UAF capabilities. The Presidential Brigade of UAF posts a video showcasing night combat operations, emphasizing vigilance and effectiveness. Dnipropetrovsk ODA Head visiting emergency medical services championship highlights preparedness and resilience in the face of attacks. Zaporizhzhia ODA posts about evacuating young footballers, highlighting humanitarian efforts amidst conflict. "Підрозділ Shadow" posts video of successful drone strikes on RF shelters, reinforcing UAF precision strike capabilities. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts video of the UAF 1st Assault Battalion holding its front line in Zaporizhzhia and destroying enemy forces with FPV drones, confirming UAF effectiveness and morale. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts video of the "STRIKS" unit's FPV drone successes on the Southern Slobozhansky direction, further confirming advanced tactical drone integration. Олександр Вілкул posts a briefing detailing the transfer of 10 DJI Matrice 4T quadcopters to the 77th Airmobile Brigade. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a photo message featuring a drone with the caption "Дальність? Вітер? Борт заармовано?" (Range? Wind? Борт заармовано?), indicating UAF's technical focus on drone operations. The "VARTOVI" unmanned systems battalion and 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" are actively demonstrating effective drone operations. Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement about Ukraine using 1000 interceptor drones daily indicates an immediate and significant scaling of UAF counter-UAV capabilities. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts multiple photo messages showcasing a tactical screen with telemetry data. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement that Ukraine will use 1000 interceptor drones per day in the near future, indicating a strategic shift towards large-scale counter-UAV operations. Ukraine is producing 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month and aims for 7 missiles daily by year-end, which will be leveraged to project growing domestic defense capabilities. Documenting casualties (Konstantinovka КАБ strike killing 5 civilians), damage to civilian infrastructure (Nizhyn, Zaporizhzhia), and war crimes allegations (exhumation videos, Donetsk displacement photos) aims to highlight RF atrocities and maintain international support. The opening of a memorial alley in Zaporizhzhia directly reinforces the narrative of sacrifice and remembrance. Demining efforts highlight UAF efforts to protect civilians. Dnipropetrovsk ODA reporting КАБ and drone strikes on civilian communities highlights RF aggression and humanitarian impact. Renewed air alerts in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast are implicitly used to highlight ongoing RF aggression against civilian areas. Reports on investigations into TCC officials and high-level fraud, recent corruption busts in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the investigation into a pro-Russian judge, the detention of Novinsky (RPC curator), and the uncovering of an organized gambling network in Kyiv demonstrate commitment to transparency and good governance. Prosecution of an FSB officer for war crimes. Life sentence for an FSB officer who brutally treated civilians in Kherson Oblast demonstrates accountability for war crimes. Exposure of a human trafficking ring led by a PRC citizen. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the conviction of a "Rashist" who oversaw the "Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation" during the occupation of Kherson, which serves to project UAF's commitment to justice and accountability. Zelenskyy's statements confirming successful operations on RF territory and the impact on the RF fuel sector highlight UAF's growing asymmetrical capabilities. Highlighting security cooperation agreements with partners like Greece and the new drone cooperation agreement with Poland, including a joint operational group. New military aid from Ireland. Poland checking bomb shelters also indirectly signals allied seriousness about RF threats. РБК-Україна reporting Starmer's commitment to help Ukraine with Trump (photo message) promotes this. Trump's statements about "Putin letting him down" and hopes for "good news" on the Ukraine settlement are being used by UAF IO to highlight potential divisions in the West's perception of Putin's actions and a desire for peace on Ukraine's terms. Confirmation of US PURL weapons arrival is a strong narrative for continued international support and UAF capabilities. Operatyvny ZSU also reports the first US PURL weapon delivery. An EU Ambassador emphasizing the need for energy reforms in Ukraine (РБК-Україна) highlights continued international interest and support for Ukraine's long-term stability. UAF IO material depicting soldiers in combat and sacrifice, often leveraging emotional elements like a fallen soldier with a cat, reinforces patriotic narratives. Training initiatives for national resistance also foster patriotism. The Military Ombudsman law emphasizes caring for service members. The Coordination Headquarters provides critical support for families of POWs/MIA, bolstering morale. Active reporting on the return of bodies of fallen servicemen demonstrates transparency and care for personnel. Report on no elections in 2026 implies UAF IO to justify wartime measures. Appointment of Tetyana Chornovol as people's deputy highlights democratic processes. РБК-Україна posts a photo message featuring an analytical piece titled "War, Ukraine, the world. What to pay attention to today," which frames ongoing events from a Ukrainian perspective. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the EU will accelerate its rejection of Russian LNG due to pressure from Trump, positioning this as a positive outcome for Ukraine. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video with an inflammatory caption against the "second army," displaying strong anti-RF sentiment and bolstering UAF morale and resolve. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a video compilation documenting over 1300 combat engagements in the last seven days, with nearly a third on the Pokrovsk direction. РБК-Україна posts a photo message stating Zelenskyy invited Qatar to a summit in New York regarding the return of Ukrainian children, highlighting humanitarian diplomacy. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo message detailing the exposure of heads of military medical commissions in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts for bribery, promoting transparency and anti-corruption efforts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo message announcing the opening of a mental health center in Ternopil for military personnel and veterans, emphasizing support for service members. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts drone footage of Mykolaiv marines (VARTOVI battalion) successfully striking Russian vehicles, artillery, and infantry, demonstrating UAF effectiveness and boosting morale. "БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС" posts drone footage of the 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" destroying eight Russian assault troops on the Pokrovsk direction, further reinforcing the narrative of successful UAF operations and precision. "РБК-Україна" refutes claims of a "data leak" from e-Notariat, serving to reassure the public about data security and counter RF disinformation. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports RF is distributing "evacuation" leaflets in Velyka Pysarivka, Sumy Oblast, which UAF IO can frame as a sign of RF desperation or fear of UAF counter-action. "Оперативний ЗСУ" crowdfunding for the Pokrovsk direction highlights continued public support. "Colonelcassad" posts an image claiming Russian forces destroyed "Georgian mercenary Yura Kalandarishvili," which RF IO will use to discredit foreign fighters and claim successes against NATO-aligned personnel, but UAF IO can use it to highlight the international nature of the conflict and RF's willingness to target foreign fighters. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a humorous video with "victory music," likely a morale-boosting effort. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that a former Ukrainian brigadier general who betrayed Ukraine in 2014 is commanding the assault on Kupiansk, a narrative highlighting internal betrayal which UAF IO can use to emphasize the enemy's reliance on such figures. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна reporting on the "Gerbera" UAV fragment found on a Latvian beach highlights RF external aggression. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement about 1000 interceptor drones daily, boosting morale by projecting a strong, adaptive, and technologically advanced defense. UAF IO will likely frame the EU's accelerated rejection of Russian LNG (Bloomberg) as a victory for international pressure and a sign of weakening Russian economic power. UAF IO will counter RF amplification of Trump's "no ceasefire" statement by highlighting it as evidence that international leaders recognize Putin's unwillingness to genuinely negotiate, reinforcing UAF's resolve to continue fighting. РБК-Україна highlights Poland conducting large-scale checks of bomb shelters, framing it within the context of European readiness to RF threats. РБК-Україна shares a video of Donald Trump suggesting Europe taking action against China could accelerate the end of the war in Ukraine, which UAF IO will likely monitor for opportunities to reinforce narratives of international pressure on RF. Оперативний ЗСУ posts messages regarding Russia's challenge to the ICAO decision on MH17, framing it as Russia attempting to evade responsibility. РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Pavlohrad, and Николаевский Ванёк reports successful downing of drones. These immediate reports from UAF-aligned channels serve as direct IO reinforcing UAF's active defense and effectiveness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting that Ukraine produces 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month, aiming for 7 daily by year-end, which will be leveraged to project growing domestic defense capabilities. The UAF Air Force (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) reporting 20+ Shaheds from Chernihiv to Kyiv is a direct and immediate UAF IO response highlighting ongoing RF threats and UAF defensive vigilance. The Air Force of Ukraine (Повітряні Сили ЗС України) report on a group of UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast also serves as a critical, immediate UAF IO communication. РБК-Україна posts a video message reporting RF has recently built a new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast, 35 km from the Ukrainian border, attributed to OSINT-analyst Brady Africk. РБК-Україна also posts a tactical analysis of a satellite image of the Bryansk Oblast launch site. This new site likely implies an increased and more direct drone threat to northern Ukraine, particularly Kyiv and Sumy Oblasts. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posted a video claiming to show aerial combat on the Zaporizhzhia front, displaying FPV drone footage, telemetry data, and what appears to be a Ukrainian drone targeting Russian equipment. This visual confirmation reinforces UAF's active and successful use of drones in combat.

NEW INTELLIGENCE:

Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast (RF Claim): "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming the 1009th regiment destroyed UAF infantry in Volchansk. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (UAF Report): "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports on the consequences of enemy night attacks on Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (UAF Report): "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" reports a 74-year-old man was injured due to an enemy attack on the Stepnohirsk community. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Kyiv (UAF Report): "РБК-Україна" and "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" report possible disruptions to card payments and ticket validation on high-speed trams and funiculars in Kyiv due to the night shelling. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Netherlands Refugee Policy: РБК-Україна reports that the Netherlands is considering excluding Ukrainian male refugees from the housing system. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Bornholm (RF Allegation): ТАСС reports Russian Ambassador to Denmark, Vladimir Barbin, claimed Bornholm Island is used by Copenhagen to create security threats to Russia, particularly Kaliningrad Oblast. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Yampil, DNR (RF Claim): ТАСС reports Marochko claimed RF Army broke through UAF defenses and entered Yampil in DNR. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Nesterianka (RF Claims): "Два майора" posts video claiming UAF "radio-controlled kamikaze drones, fiber-optic attack UAVs, artillery shelling, and tank fire" on RF positions in Nesterianka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
RF Casualties: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports an additional 1150 personnel neutralized in the last 24 hours. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)
IAEA Resolution: РБК-Україна (UAF source) reports the IAEA General Conference adopted a resolution calling on Russia to return control of the Zaporizhzhia NPP to Ukraine. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Kryvyi Rih Situation: Олександр Вілкул (UAF source) reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of the morning of 19.09.25. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF Fundraising: "STERNENKO" reports collecting an additional 8 million UAH for the UAF yesterday. (FACT, UAF REPORT) NEW: STERNENKO further posts an image indicating more coffee/donations are "flying" to cut down "Russians." (FACT, UAF REPORT)
EU LNG Policy: "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports Bloomberg's statement that the EU plans to reject Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) as quickly as possible. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF Deep Strike (Kursk Oblast): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) posts video claiming SSO struck a logistics hub of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade (OBRMPS) in Kursk Oblast. (FACT, UAF CLAIM) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS corroborates this with video evidence of the strike, showing an industrial or military complex. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)
Kyiv Memorial: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts photo messages commemorating fallen defenders from Kyiv. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Minute of Silence (UAF): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ, and Офіс Генерального прокурора post messages commemorating a nationwide minute of silence for fallen soldiers. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Nationalization: Север.Реалии reports the nationalization of the "Музыка" publishing house in Russia. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Vehicle Discounts: ТАСС reports Russian car dealers are reducing discounts on 2024 models due to reduced stock. (FACT, RF REPORT)
STERNENKO Assessment: STERNENKO posts an "IMMEDIATE ASSESSMENT" with no additional text, indicating continued public engagement and commentary. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (RF Gamification Claim): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video featuring Igor Kimakovsky, advisor to the head of the DNR, discussing a "scoring system" for military actions, suggesting a "gamification of war." (FACT, RF IO via UAF-aligned source)
PNV (RF Source): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts photo messages captioned "Про 4-х глазый ПНВ!", referring to 4-eyed night vision devices, likely highlighting RF special forces equipment. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Trump-Xi Jinping Call (UAF Report): РБК-Україна reports Trump and Xi Jinping are scheduled to hold a phone call today, discussing unspecified topics. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF FPV Interceptors: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts a video showcasing the "most effective FPV interceptor pilot" of the 71st Separate Jaeger Brigade of the Air Assault Forces (DSHV), highlighting their role in reconnaissance and striking enemy equipment. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Internal UAF Corruption: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the detention in Dnipro of a former military unit commander who allegedly organized a "profitable scheme for desertion." (FACT, UAF REPORT)
POW/MIA Family Meeting: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) reports a meeting with families of captured and missing defenders from various brigades. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Information Control (Roaming Scammers): ТАСС reports Roskomnadzor is considering partial restrictions on Russian SIM cards in roaming due to scammers calling from them. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Social Policy (Contraceptives): Новости Москвы reports a proposal in Russia to ban contraceptives for married couples. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Siversk Offensive (Rybar Analysis): Два майора posts a video analyzing Rybar's tactical map, indicating RF forces advancing around Serebryanka and Novoyelivka, aiming to consolidate positions and potentially encircle Ukrainian strongholds north of Serebryanka, specifically in an "offensive bypassing Siversk." (FACT, RF REPORT)
Kherson Region (UAF Civilian Presence): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video of a man in military attire in a watermelon field in Vinogradova, Kherson region, with the caption "My field - my watermelons!" (FACT, UAF-aligned report, suggests UAF presence in civilian-populated areas of Kherson).
UAF Naval Operations (Tendra Spit): РБК-Україна posts video claiming GUR special forces landed on Tendra Spit and ambushed RF forces, destroying a landing craft. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Kupiansk/Lyman POWs (UAF Claim): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming soldiers of the 425th Regiment "Skelya" captured 17 POWs in a week on the Pokrovsk and Lyman directions. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)
Southern Front Civilian Shelling: Сили оборони Півдня України (UAF source) reports RF conducted 7 shellings on 6 settlements in the Southern operational zone yesterday, affecting civilians. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Southern Front Shahed Interceptions: Сили оборони Півдня України (UAF source) reports 3 Shahed-136/131 UAVs were destroyed in the Southern operational zone yesterday. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Kitchen Knives (Propaganda): Старше Эдды posts a video promoting "kitchen knife sets," a civilian normalcy propaganda piece. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Orikhiv Anniversary (UAF Civilian): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts photos celebrating Orikhiv's 250th anniversary. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Morale (Chaplain): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts video about a priest choosing the front line over "capital calm," highlighting RF spiritual support/morale. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Vyborog Flooding (RF Report): Север.Реалии reports heavy flooding in Vyborog, Leningrad Oblast, causing power outages. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Narcotics Interception: ТАСС reports FSB and FTS thwarted cocaine smuggling (1750 kg, 20 billion rubles). (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Civilian Messaging (Fines): Новости Москвы posts a photo message about fines for "insulting with the word 'vegetable'", suggesting internal social controls. (FACT, RF REPORT)

1.4. Information Environment (Cognitive domain)

Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (Confidence: HIGH):

RF Narratives: RF is actively attempting to discredit UAF's counter-offensive success in Donetsk, downplay its own losses, and amplify any perceived UAF setbacks or disorganization. They are aggressively using the Konstantinovka civilian casualties and the 1000:24 body exchange ratio (highly exaggerated) to paint a picture of UAF failure and RF military prowess. RF IO is leveraging Trump's statements to sow confusion and portray Western disunity on Ukraine support, particularly his "Putin let me down" and "terrible relations between Putin and Zelenskyy" comments. They are attempting to link rising antisemitism in Europe to broader societal decay (Flensburg incident) to deflect from their own actions. RF is also using narratives of internal RF stability and normalcy (Kamchatka earthquake, civilian fundraising efforts for armor) to mask the impact of the war. They actively promote their military technology and manpower (700k troops). RF will use the US Gaza ceasefire veto to portray the US as hypocritical. Alex Parker Returns's claim of Rostec structures servicing UAF helicopters is a new, subtle IO attempt to sow distrust and imply corruption or collaboration. Colonelcassad's video of UAF DRG destruction aims to project RF defensive successes and UAF losses. Colonelcassad's promotion of Wagner training in Belarus aims to enhance the image of RF military capability and expertise. RF continues to challenge international decisions (MH17) to portray itself as a victim of international bias. MoD Russia's "Top News Today" serves as a general IO effort to control the daily narrative. The ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ channel's complaints about a low-participation fundraising marathon might inadvertently reveal internal strains within some pro-RF volunteer networks, but is framed as a call for more support. ТАСС reports Putin released Kozak from his position as Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration. RF IO will likely frame this as a routine or positive administrative change to reinforce an image of strong, decisive leadership. Alex Parker Returns's post on "contributions from restaurant checks for SVO needs" is an IO effort to promote public support for the war, while also subtly criticizing perceived resource allocation disparities, possibly aimed at internal dissent. Новости Москвы's video about S7 Airlines' new uniforms and TASS's report on Trump's TikTok statements are examples of RF IO attempting to project normalcy, economic stability, and engagement with international issues unrelated to the conflict, as a distraction. Colonelcassad posts a photo message quoting Trump saying it is "not the time to ask Putin for a ceasefire," which RF IO will amplify to project RF strength and an unwavering stance. Minister of Finance Siluanov's statement on an expected 12-13% key rate for the 2026 budget indicates continued focus on economic stability messaging. Операция Z amplifies a Business Insider report predicting a world crisis in 2026, which RF IO will likely leverage to portray Western economic instability. Colonelcassad posts videos and images from the "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition, promoting RF military heroism and displaying destroyed enemy equipment (unattributed to specific units). "Военкоры Русской Весны" (amplified by Операция Z) claims a former UAF officer who defected in 2014 is commanding the Russian offensive on Kupiansk, a narrative that RF will leverage to sow discord within UAF. RF IO is actively disseminating content (Операция Z) that claims "shooting and explosions" in Kyiv, aiming to amplify the psychological impact of the drone attack and generate panic or demoralization among the Ukrainian population. Рыбарь's recent message (🇺🇸🇻🇪Вы думаете, это реально оказалась по итогу лодка с 60-тью наркосами?) could be a diversionary tactic to draw attention away from the Kyiv attack and other RF military actions. ТАСС reports that the "Fair Russia — For Truth" party proposes to increase maternity capital for a second child to 1 million rubles and for a third to 1.5 million rubles. This is RF IO aimed at boosting internal morale and addressing demographic challenges, projecting stability and state care. Операция Z reports on a man discussing salary disparities between military and civilian personnel in Ukraine. This is an RF IO attempt to sow discord, highlight perceived economic hardship, and potentially portray military service as economically unviable or emotionally taxing in Ukraine. ТАСС reports Roskomnadzor (Russian federal service for supervision in the sphere of communications) blocked over 70,000 fraudulent SIM cards using internal systems of the domestic messenger Max. This is an RF IO effort to project effective internal security and control over digital communications, likely to reassure the public and potentially to signal greater control over information flow. TASS reports that individuals involved in the murder of General Kirillov have been accused of organizing a terrorist community. This is an RF IO message to project internal security and control. TASS reports an interview with Viktor Vodolatsky, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee for CIS Affairs, Eurasian Integration, and Relations with Compatriots, stating that the settlement process in Ukraine could drag on until Trump's victory over the "deep state." This is a significant RF IO effort to leverage perceived Western internal divisions and to project a long-term, politically-influenced conflict resolution timeline favorable to RF. The video also features nationalistic rhetoric, emphasizing Russian historical resilience and asserting confidence in Russia's eventual victory and reclaiming of historical lands. This reinforces a narrative of historical destiny and inevitable triumph. РБК-Україна posts a photo message stating Russia has appealed the ICAO decision regarding MH17 at the UN Court. This is a continuation of RF's legal and information warfare to deny responsibility. ТАСС posts a video claiming a Croatian citizen, who recently obtained Russian citizenship, surrendered to Russian FPV drone operators in Zaporizhzhia Oblast while serving with UAF. This is an RF IO attempt to demonstrate UAF disorganization and RF success. Рыбарь posts a daily situation summary, "Chronicle of the SMO for September 18," indicating continued structured RF information dissemination.
UAF Narratives: Emphasis on repelling RF assaults, successful deep strikes (Salavat refinery, Buk-M2), and the capture of RF personnel (425th Regiment "Skelya", "STRIKS" unit successes, border guard strikes, SBU agent detention, Kharkiv spotter detention, 35th Combined Arms Army casualties list) reinforces UAF's fighting capability and resolve. Zelenskyy's report of successful counter-offensive in Donetsk Oblast, including liberated territory and significant RF casualties, is a major boost to this narrative. The active public fundraising for advanced FPV drones ("best drones to work with") is a key part of this narrative. Reconnaissance personnel are highlighted as key to victory. The destroyed Poltava monument helicopter also serves as a symbol of resilience. UAF artillery displaying adaptability and continuous operation also reinforces this. President Zelenskyy's direct engagement with frontline units in Donetsk Oblast and the 82nd Air Assault Brigade command post further supports this narrative. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts reinforcing soldier morale. The 1st Assault Regiment's success near Dobropillya reinforces this. President Zelenskyy meeting with 79th Air Assault Brigade soldiers directly supports the narrative of resilience and success, highlighting specific unit involvement in current operations. The arrival of US PURL weapons is a strong narrative for continued international support and UAF capabilities. The Presidential Brigade of UAF posts a video showcasing night combat operations, emphasizing vigilance and effectiveness. Dnipropetrovsk ODA Head visiting emergency medical services championship highlights preparedness and resilience in the face of attacks. Zaporizhzhia ODA posts about evacuating young footballers, highlighting humanitarian efforts amidst conflict. "Підрозділ Shadow" posts video of successful drone strikes on RF shelters, reinforcing UAF precision strike capabilities. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts video of the UAF 1st Assault Battalion holding its front line in Zaporizhzhia and destroying enemy forces with FPV drones, confirming UAF effectiveness and morale. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts video of the "STRIKS" unit's FPV drone successes on the Southern Slobozhansky direction, further confirming advanced tactical drone integration. Олександр Вілкул posts a briefing detailing the transfer of 10 DJI Matrice 4T quadcopters to the 77th Airmobile Brigade. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a photo message featuring a drone with the caption "Дальність? Вітер? Борт заармовано?" (Range? Wind? Board armed?), indicating UAF's technical focus on drone operations. The "VARTOVI" unmanned systems battalion and 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" are actively demonstrating effective drone operations. Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement about Ukraine using 1000 interceptor drones daily indicates an immediate and significant scaling of UAF counter-UAV capabilities. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts multiple photo messages showcasing a tactical screen with telemetry data. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement that Ukraine will use 1000 interceptor drones per day in the near future, indicating a strategic shift towards large-scale counter-UAV operations. Ukraine is producing 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month and aims for 7 missiles daily by year-end, which will be leveraged to project growing domestic defense capabilities. Documenting casualties (Konstantinovka КАБ strike killing 5 civilians), damage to civilian infrastructure (Nizhyn, Zaporizhzhia), and war crimes allegations (exhumation videos, Donetsk displacement photos) aims to highlight RF atrocities and maintain international support. The opening of a memorial alley in Zaporizhzhia directly reinforces the narrative of sacrifice and remembrance. Demining efforts highlight UAF efforts to protect civilians. Dnipropetrovsk ODA reporting КАБ and drone strikes on civilian communities highlights RF aggression and humanitarian impact. Renewed air alerts in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast are implicitly used to highlight ongoing RF aggression against civilian areas. Reports on investigations into TCC officials and high-level fraud, recent corruption busts in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the investigation into a pro-Russian judge, the detention of Novinsky (RPC curator), and the uncovering of an organized gambling network in Kyiv demonstrate commitment to transparency and good governance. Prosecution of an FSB officer for war crimes. Life sentence for an FSB officer who brutally treated civilians in Kherson Oblast demonstrates accountability for war crimes. Exposure of a human trafficking ring led by a PRC citizen. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the conviction of a "Rashist" who oversaw the "Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation" during the occupation of Kherson, which serves to project UAF's commitment to justice and accountability. Zelenskyy's statements confirming successful operations on RF territory and the impact on the RF fuel sector highlight UAF's growing asymmetrical capabilities. Highlighting security cooperation agreements with partners like Greece and the new drone cooperation agreement with Poland, including a joint operational group. New military aid from Ireland. Poland checking bomb shelters also indirectly signals allied seriousness about RF threats. РБК-Україна reporting Starmer's commitment to help Ukraine with Trump (photo message) promotes this. Trump's statements about "Putin letting him down" and hopes for "good news" on the Ukraine settlement are being used by UAF IO to highlight potential divisions in the West's perception of Putin's actions and a desire for peace on Ukraine's terms. Confirmation of US PURL weapons arrival is a strong narrative for continued international support and UAF capabilities. Operatyvny ZSU also reports the first US PURL weapon delivery. An EU Ambassador emphasizing the need for energy reforms in Ukraine (РБК-Україна) highlights continued international interest and support for Ukraine's long-term stability. UAF IO material depicting soldiers in combat and sacrifice, often leveraging emotional elements like a fallen soldier with a cat, reinforces patriotic narratives. Training initiatives for national resistance also foster patriotism. The Military Ombudsman law emphasizes caring for service members. The Coordination Headquarters provides critical support for families of POWs/MIA, bolstering morale. Active reporting on the return of bodies of fallen servicemen demonstrates transparency and care for personnel. Report on no elections in 2026 implies UAF IO to justify wartime measures. Appointment of Tetyana Chornovol as people's deputy highlights democratic processes. РБК-Україна posts a photo message featuring an analytical piece titled "War, Ukraine, the world. What to pay attention to today," which frames ongoing events from a Ukrainian perspective. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the EU will accelerate its rejection of Russian LNG due to pressure from Trump, positioning this as a positive outcome for Ukraine. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video with an inflammatory caption against the "second army," displaying strong anti-RF sentiment and bolstering UAF morale and resolve. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a video compilation documenting over 1300 combat engagements in the last seven days, with nearly a third on the Pokrovsk direction. РБК-Україна posts a photo message stating Zelenskyy invited Qatar to a summit in New York regarding the return of Ukrainian children, highlighting humanitarian diplomacy. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo message detailing the exposure of heads of military medical commissions in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts for bribery, promoting transparency and anti-corruption efforts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo message announcing the opening of a mental health center in Ternopil for military personnel and veterans, emphasizing support for service members. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts drone footage of Mykolaiv marines (VARTOVI battalion) successfully striking Russian vehicles, artillery, and infantry, demonstrating UAF effectiveness and boosting morale. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts drone footage of the 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" destroying eight Russian assault troops on the Pokrovsk direction, further reinforcing the narrative of successful UAF operations and precision. "РБК-Україна" refutes claims of a "data leak" from e-Notariat, serving to reassure the public about data security and counter RF disinformation. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports RF is distributing "evacuation" leaflets in Velyka Pysarivka, Sumy Oblast, which UAF IO can frame as a sign of RF desperation or fear of UAF counter-action. "Оперативний ЗСУ" crowdfunding for the Pokrovsk direction highlights continued public support. "Colonelcassad" posts an image claiming Russian forces destroyed "Georgian mercenary Yura Kalandarishvili," which RF IO will use to discredit foreign fighters and claim successes against NATO-aligned personnel, but UAF IO can use it to highlight the international nature of the conflict and RF's willingness to target foreign fighters. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a humorous video with "victory music," likely a morale-boosting effort. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that a former Ukrainian brigadier general who betrayed Ukraine in 2014 is commanding the assault on Kupiansk, a narrative highlighting internal betrayal which UAF IO can use to emphasize the enemy's reliance on such figures. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна reporting on the "Gerbera" UAV fragment found on a Latvian beach highlights RF external aggression. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement about 1000 interceptor drones daily, boosting morale by projecting a strong, adaptive, and technologically advanced defense. UAF IO will likely frame the EU's accelerated rejection of Russian LNG (Bloomberg) as a victory for international pressure and a sign of weakening Russian economic power. UAF IO will counter RF amplification of Trump's "no ceasefire" statement by highlighting it as evidence that international leaders recognize Putin's unwillingness to genuinely negotiate, reinforcing UAF's resolve to continue fighting. РБК-Україна highlights Poland conducting large-scale checks of bomb shelters, framing it within the context of European readiness to RF threats. РБК-Україна shares a video of Donald Trump suggesting Europe taking action against China could accelerate the end of the war in Ukraine, which UAF IO will likely monitor for opportunities to reinforce narratives of international pressure on RF. Оперативний ЗСУ posts messages regarding Russia's challenge to the ICAO decision on MH17, framing it as Russia attempting to evade responsibility. РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Pavlohrad, and Николаевский Ванёк reports successful downing of drones. These immediate reports from UAF-aligned channels serve as direct IO reinforcing UAF's active defense and effectiveness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting that Ukraine produces 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month, aiming for 7 daily by year-end, which will be leveraged to project growing domestic defense capabilities. The UAF Air Force (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) reporting 20+ Shaheds from Chernihiv to Kyiv is a direct and immediate UAF IO response highlighting ongoing RF threats and UAF defensive vigilance. The Air Force of Ukraine (Повітряні Сили ЗС України) report on a group of UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast also serves as a critical, immediate UAF IO communication. РБК-Україна posts a video message reporting RF has recently built a new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast, 35 km from the Ukrainian border, attributed to OSINT-analyst Brady Africk. РБК-Україна also posts a tactical analysis of a satellite image of the Bryansk Oblast launch site. This new site likely implies an increased and more direct drone threat to northern Ukraine, particularly Kyiv and Sumy Oblasts. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posted a video claiming to show aerial combat on the Zaporizhzhia front, displaying FPV drone footage, telemetry data, and what appears to be a Ukrainian drone targeting Russian equipment. This visual confirmation reinforces UAF's active and successful use of drones in combat.

NEW INTELLIGENCE:

Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast (RF Claim): "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming the 1009th regiment destroyed UAF infantry in Volchansk. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (UAF Report): "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports on the consequences of enemy night attacks on Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (UAF Report): "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" reports a 74-year-old man was injured due to an enemy attack on the Stepnohirsk community. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Kyiv (UAF Report): "РБК-Україна" and "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" report possible disruptions to card payments and ticket validation on high-speed trams and funiculars in Kyiv due to the night shelling. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Netherlands Refugee Policy: РБК-Україна reports that the Netherlands is considering excluding Ukrainian male refugees from the housing system. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Bornholm (RF Allegation): ТАСС reports Russian Ambassador to Denmark, Vladimir Barbin, claimed Bornholm Island is used by Copenhagen to create security threats to Russia, particularly Kaliningrad Oblast. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Yampil, DNR (RF Claim): ТАСС reports Marochko claimed RF Army broke through UAF defenses and entered Yampil in DNR. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Nesterianka (RF Claims): "Два майора" posts video claiming UAF "radio-controlled kamikaze drones, fiber-optic attack UAVs, artillery shelling, and tank fire" on RF positions in Nesterianka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
RF Casualties: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports an additional 1150 personnel neutralized in the last 24 hours. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)
IAEA Resolution: РБК-Україна (UAF source) reports the IAEA General Conference adopted a resolution calling on Russia to return control of the Zaporizhzhia NPP to Ukraine. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Kryvyi Rih Situation: Олександр Вілкул (UAF source) reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of the morning of 19.09.25. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF Fundraising: "STERNENKO" reports collecting an additional 8 million UAH for the UAF yesterday. (FACT, UAF REPORT) NEW: STERNENKO further posts an image indicating more coffee/donations are "flying" to cut down "Russians." (FACT, UAF REPORT)
EU LNG Policy: "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports Bloomberg's statement that the EU plans to reject Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) as quickly as possible. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF Deep Strike (Kursk Oblast): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) posts video claiming SSO struck a logistics hub of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade (OBRMPS) in Kursk Oblast. (FACT, UAF CLAIM) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS corroborates this with video evidence of the strike, showing an industrial or military complex. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)
Kyiv Memorial: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts photo messages commemorating fallen defenders from Kyiv. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Minute of Silence (UAF): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ, and Офіс Генерального прокурора post messages commemorating a nationwide minute of silence for fallen soldiers. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Nationalization: Север.Реалии reports the nationalization of the "Музыка" publishing house in Russia. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Vehicle Discounts: ТАСС reports Russian car dealers are reducing discounts on 2024 models due to reduced stock. (FACT, RF REPORT)
STERNENKO Assessment: STERNENKO posts an "IMMEDIATE ASSESSMENT" with no additional text, indicating continued public engagement and commentary. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (RF Gamification Claim): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video featuring Igor Kimakovsky, advisor to the head of the DNR, discussing a "scoring system" for military actions, suggesting a "gamification of war." (FACT, RF IO via UAF-aligned source)
PNV (RF Source): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts photo messages captioned "Про 4-х глазый ПНВ!", referring to 4-eyed night vision devices, likely highlighting RF special forces equipment. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Trump-Xi Jinping Call (UAF Report): РБК-Україна reports Trump and Xi Jinping are scheduled to hold a phone call today, discussing unspecified topics. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF FPV Interceptors: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts a video showcasing the "most effective FPV interceptor pilot" of the 71st Separate Jaeger Brigade of the Air Assault Forces (DSHV), highlighting their role in reconnaissance and striking enemy equipment. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Internal UAF Corruption: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the detention in Dnipro of a former military unit commander who allegedly organized a "profitable scheme for desertion." (FACT, UAF REPORT)
POW/MIA Family Meeting: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) reports a meeting with families of captured and missing defenders from various brigades. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Information Control (Roaming Scammers): ТАСС reports Roskomnadzor is considering partial restrictions on Russian SIM cards in roaming due to scammers calling from them. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Social Policy (Contraceptives): Новости Москвы reports a proposal in Russia to ban contraceptives for married couples. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Siversk Offensive (Rybar Analysis): Два майора posts a video analyzing Rybar's tactical map, indicating RF forces advancing around Serebryanka and Novoyelivka, aiming to consolidate positions and potentially encircle Ukrainian strongholds north of Serebryanka, specifically in an "offensive bypassing Siversk." (FACT, RF REPORT)
Kherson Region (UAF Civilian Presence): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video of a man in military attire in a watermelon field in Vinogradova, Kherson region, with the caption "My field - my watermelons!" (FACT, UAF-aligned report, suggests UAF presence in civilian-populated areas of Kherson).
UAF Naval Operations (Tendra Spit): РБК-Україна posts video claiming GUR special forces landed on Tendra Spit and ambushed RF forces, destroying a landing craft. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Kupiansk/Lyman POWs (UAF Claim): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming soldiers of the 425th Regiment "Skelya" captured 17 POWs in a week on the Pokrovsk and Lyman directions. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)
Southern Front Civilian Shelling: Сили оборони Півдня України (UAF source) reports RF conducted 7 shellings on 6 settlements in the Southern operational zone yesterday, affecting civilians. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Southern Front Shahed Interceptions: Сили оборони Півдня України (UAF source) reports 3 Shahed-136/131 UAVs were destroyed in the Southern operational zone yesterday. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Kitchen Knives (Propaganda): Старше Эдды posts a video promoting "kitchen knife sets," a civilian normalcy propaganda piece. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Orikhiv Anniversary (UAF Civilian): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts photos celebrating Orikhiv's 250th anniversary. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Morale (Chaplain): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts video about a priest choosing the front line over "capital calm," highlighting RF spiritual support/morale. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Narcotics Interception: ТАСС reports FSB and FTS thwarted cocaine smuggling (1750 kg, 20 billion rubles). (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Civilian Messaging (Fines): Новости Москвы posts a photo message about fines for "insulting with the word 'vegetable'", suggesting internal social controls. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Krasnoarmeysk Logistics Fire Control (RF Claim): ТАСС reports Kimakovsky claimed RF forces took full fire control of all UAF logistics around Krasnoarmeysk. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Pavlohrad WPK Hit (RF Claim): Военкор Котенок reports "enemy resources" confirm an ammunition depot and chemical enterprise (part of Ukrainian WPK) were hit in Pavlohrad overnight. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Zelenskyy US Drone/Weapon Proposals (UAF Report): РБК-Україна posts photos and caption indicating Zelenskyy made large-scale drone and weapon proposals to the USA. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Moscow Traffic Lights (Civilian): Новости Москвы posts a photo message about testing traffic lights with contour lighting in Moscow. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Novoyvanovka Fatalities (RF Source): Воин DV posts graphic images (21+) claiming Ukrainian servicemen defending Novoyvanovka made the "wrong choice," implying significant UAF casualties. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
RF Internal Politics (Utlisbor): Басурин о главном discusses "Utlisbor" (recycling fee) and who profits, indicating internal Russian economic discussions. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Propaganda (Macron): Kotsnews reports on "disagreements of allies and justifications of Macrons," indicating RF IO amplifying Western disunity. (FACT, RF REPORT)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

Capabilities (Confidence: HIGH): RF continues to demonstrate robust ground offensive capabilities on multiple axes, supported by significant artillery and glide bomb resources. They possess advanced FPV drone and reconnaissance UAV capabilities. RF maintains a strong strategic aviation and naval presence, conducting exercises like "Zapad-2025" and "Rubezh 2025." The capability to conduct deep strikes (Salavat refinery implies UAF capability) and high-volume drone attacks is confirmed. RF retains a sophisticated information warfare apparatus capable of multi-layered disinformation campaigns. Their ability to recruit and deploy foreign nationals (Cuban mercenaries, Croatian citizens) and controversial personnel (pardoned criminals) reflects ongoing efforts to augment manpower. RF is adapting its tactics, experimenting with UGVs and attempting urban infiltration. They possess advanced EW capabilities (Orlan-30 drone EW resistance). The reported construction of a new "Shahed" drone launch facility (Bryansk Oblast) indicates growing production capacity for UAVs and an advanced launch posture. RF continues to train allied forces, as evidenced by Wagner's training of Belarusian forces. RF leadership has demonstrated the capability to make high-level personnel changes, as seen with Kozak's release. RF maintains economic stability, as indicated by the Ministry of Finance's budget forecasts. RF has secured a commander for the Kupiansk offensive with prior UAF experience, potentially offering a tactical advantage. RF demonstrates a continued capability for high-intensity, multi-wave drone attacks targeting the capital, specifically Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast. RF continues to demonstrate naval construction capabilities, albeit with significant delays, as evidenced by the launch of the "Strelok" missile boat. This highlights a persistent, long-term effort to maintain and modernize its naval fleet. RF has the capability to intercept and destroy Ukrainian FPV drones, as demonstrated by the Воин DV video and the new Операция Z video from Zaporizhzhia. RF possesses the capability for extensive cyber and information control, as evidenced by Roskomnadzor blocking a large number of fraudulent SIM cards associated with messenger services. This indicates a sophisticated state-level capability to monitor and manipulate digital communication infrastructure. RF's Pacific Fleet demonstrated cruise missile launch capabilities from nuclear submarines, underscoring their strategic naval power projection. China's testing of armed robot dogs (Colonelcassad) demonstrates advancements in unmanned ground systems, which, while not RF capabilities, highlights global trends in military technology that RF may seek to emulate or counter. RF has a demonstrated capability to conduct multi-wave drone attacks, as seen in the overnight attack on Pavlohrad. RF is capable of sustained ground assaults, including the use of incendiary munitions against UAF infantry, as reported in Volchansk. RF has the capability to inflict civilian casualties through precision strikes, as evidenced by the attack on the Stepnohirsk community. RF has the capability to conduct targeted SOF operations, as claimed by Colonelcassad on the Vremevsky direction. RF has demonstrated the capability to develop and field sophisticated air defense systems, as evidenced by Israel's Iron Beam (reported by RF source) which may influence RF's own R&D. RF has delivered a batch of new "Pantsir-SMD" SAM systems, indicating continued modernization of air defense capabilities. RF has demonstrated surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities using drones, as seen with the "Rubikon" video. RF has shown the ability to inflict civilian casualties in Belgorod Oblast through drone strikes. UAF SSO has demonstrated deep strike capability against RF logistics hubs in Kursk Oblast. RF's 5th Guards Army "Vostok" Group drone operators are active on the Vremevsky direction, demonstrating continued drone ISR and strike capability. RF naval capabilities include long-range cruise missile launches from nuclear submarines, as demonstrated by the Pacific Fleet exercises in the Okhotsk Sea. (Басурин о главном) RF possesses foreign military technology analysis capabilities, as evidenced by reports on Japan's railgun test. (Colonelcassad) RF maintains control over its telecommunications to combat fraud, which could be extended for broader information control. (ТАСС) RF has demonstrated capability to interdict large-scale narcotics smuggling, projecting internal security capability. (ТАСС) RF can provide drone air cover for assault groups to counter UAF heavy copters. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)
Intentions (Confidence: HIGH): RF intends to maintain offensive pressure on key axes (Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia) to achieve territorial gains and attrit UAF forces. They aim to degrade Ukrainian critical infrastructure (energy, railways) through persistent aerial attacks. RF intends to continue robust information warfare to sow discord, demoralize UAF, and undermine international support. They will leverage geopolitical events and Western internal divisions for IO. RF also intends to protect its internal security and project an strong image of stability. The continuation of large-scale military exercises (Zapad-2025) indicates intent for sustained long-term military readiness and projection of power. RF intends to continue targeting UAF heavy artillery, as evidenced by the Konstantinovka M109A5 strike. RF appears to be increasing pressure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, as claimed by Воин DV. RF intends to project internal unity and strong leadership (MoD Russia's "Top News Today"). Russia's challenge to the ICAO decision on MH17 at the ICJ indicates an intention to continue challenging international legal frameworks and deny accountability. The "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition indicates an intent to sustain public support and morale for the conflict. RF's new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast signals an intention to increase aerial pressure on northern Ukraine. RF will continue to leverage historical narratives, as reported in the new message "Two majors", to promote national unity and justify current actions. RF intends to sustain and potentially escalate aerial pressure on Kyiv, likely as a retaliatory measure for the Salavat deep strike, and to inflict psychological impact and further degrade air defense systems. The ongoing drone attack on Kyiv confirms this immediate intention. RF intends to maintain its long-term naval modernization program (Project 12418 missile boats). RF intends to circumvent Western financial sanctions through cooperation with China (independent depository). RF will continue to leverage international forums and IO (IAEA abstentions, MI6 darknet portal, derisive comments about Kyiv attacks) to project international support, demonize Western intelligence, and demoralize Ukrainians. RF intends to develop and implement social support programs (e.g., increased maternity capital) to project state care and domestic stability, aiming to bolster long-term internal stability amidst the conflict. RF intends to maintain its counter-UAV capabilities and operations against Ukrainian drones. RF intends to maintain and enhance its control over the domestic information environment and communications, likely to counter internal dissent and foreign influence, as indicated by Roskomnadzor's actions. RF intends to continue pursuing and prosecuting individuals it deems responsible for internal "terrorist" acts, as seen in the General Kirillov murder case. RF intends to shape international perceptions of the conflict's duration and resolution, leveraging Western political dynamics, as expressed in the Vodolatsky interview. RF intends to continue challenging international legal decisions, as seen in their appeal against the MH17 ruling at the UN Court. RF intends to continue showcasing its strategic naval and missile capabilities through exercises. RF's daily "Chronicle of the SMO" by Рыбарь confirms their intention to maintain a consistent narrative regarding ongoing operations. RF intends to leverage any perceived vulnerabilities in the Netherlands' refugee policy to further its IO goals, portraying a lack of Western unity or support for Ukraine. RF intends to continue framing NATO as an aggressor, as seen in the Ambassador's comments regarding Bornholm. RF intends to exploit the perception of UAF abandoning NATO weapons to demoralize UAF forces and boost RF morale. RF intends to demonstrate control over annexed territories and project defensive capability, as seen in the RF Air Defense reports from Crimea. RF intends to maintain a consistent narrative of providing essential supplies to its frontline units, as seen in the "Военкоры Русской Весны" videos. RF intends to engage in psychological warfare and attrition against UAF personnel by deploying booby traps, as described by the RF demining group commander. RF intends to continue using high-volume drone attacks, as demonstrated by the overnight assault on Pavlohrad, to overwhelm UAF air defenses and strike infrastructure. RF intends to press ground assaults in Volchansk, likely seeking to attrit UAF forces and secure localized gains, employing incendiary munitions. RF intends to inflict civilian casualties and damage infrastructure in areas like Zaporizhzhia Oblast through aerial attacks. RF intends to use social welfare policies (e.g., family capital) to bolster domestic support and project state care. RF intends to leverage the US veto on the Gaza ceasefire to portray US diplomatic isolation and hypocrisy. RF intends to showcase its military industrial complex capabilities by announcing new SAM system deliveries. RF intends to maintain the current regulatory framework for cryptocurrency mining, signaling a degree of internal economic stability. RF intends to control information access during mobile network restrictions, reinforcing state control and security. RF intends to project air superiority through drone operations, as claimed by "Rubikon." RF intends to portray UAF as aggressive by reporting civilian casualties from drone strikes in Belgorod. RF intends to monitor and comment on broader geopolitical events, such as a possible US invasion of Venezuela, to demonstrate its global awareness and influence. RF intends to encircle Siversk by conducting battles in Vyemka and Pereyizne. RF intends to continue offensive operations in the Novopetrovske (Ternove) area despite encountering heavy UAF defenses, indicating persistence in achieving territorial gains. RF intends to leverage foreign military technology developments (Japan's railgun test) for strategic advantage in its military-industrial complex and future warfare planning. (Colonelcassad) RF intends to further control domestic information, as seen by potential restrictions on roaming SIM cards. (ТАСС) RF intends to promote traditional social values through policy proposals like banning contraceptives for married couples. (Новости Москвы) RF intends to exploit ongoing combat in Novoyekonomichne, Donetsk Oblast, to project military progress. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦) RF intends to continue discussions and planning for additional EU sanctions packages. (ТАСС) RF intends to project internal security success (e.g., cocaine interception). (ТАСС) RF intends to use internal social control mechanisms (e.g., fines for 'insulting' words). (Новости Москвы) RF intends to use "gamification" narratives for military actions (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) for internal consumption. (Оперативний ЗСУ) RF intends to continue civilian messaging on infrastructure improvements. (Новости Москвы)
Courses of Action (Confidence: HIGH):
- Ground: Sustained ground offensives on Kupiansk-Lyman, Southern Donetsk (Novoivanovka), Pokrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia (Kamyanske, Plavni) axes, with attempts at localized encirclements and urban combat. Continued use of combined arms, FPV drones, and possibly unconventional infiltration tactics. Counter-DRG operations (e.g., against "Baba Yaga" drones) will continue. The use of a former UAF officer to command the Kupiansk assault suggests an intent to exploit specific knowledge of UAF defenses and vulnerabilities. RF claims of advances near Kucherovka and Petropavlovka in the Kupiansk sector indicate an immediate continuation of localized ground offensives. Concurrently, RF will intensify ground operations in Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, utilizing incendiary munitions and drone support against UAF infantry. RF will push for a rapid breakthrough or envelopment of Yampil, DNR, capitalizing on claimed initial entry. RF will also continue to utilize mine warfare and booby traps, as reported in Zaporizhzhia, to inflict casualties and psychological impact on UAF ground forces. RF SOF units will continue localized operations to destroy UAF militants, as claimed on the Vremevsky direction. RF will continue battles in Vyemka and Pereyizne to encircle Siversk. RF will persist in offensive operations in Novopetrovske (Ternove), utilizing drones and small group infiltration tactics, despite minefields and anti-tank ditches. Localized advances on targets like Novonikolaevka, Malaya Tokmachka, Otradnoye, and in Dnipropetrovsk/Eastern Zaporizhzhia will persist to stretch UAF defenses. Precision MLRS strikes will continue on UAF positions, with a continued willingness to use guided aerial bombs on civilian targets (e.g., Konstantinovka). RF forces from "Zapad-2025" may be redeployed to active combat zones, potentially including the Kyiv axis, as implied by Janus Putkonen. Aggressive recruitment with high financial incentives will be sustained to back these operations. RF will also continue to enhance C2 networks in key offensive areas (e.g., Krasnoarmeysk direction). Putin's statements on over 700k personnel on the line of contact, though possibly inflated, suggest a high readiness to commit manpower. RF Army Aviation (Ka-52m) will continue to provide direct fire support to ground operations in relevant sectors (MoD Russia). RF will continue to leverage controversial recruitment methods (e.g., pardoned criminals, foreign nationals) to sustain manpower for these offensives (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, ТАСС). Cluster Iskander strikes against UAF company tactical groups (Druzhkivka) indicate an ongoing intent to target UAF troop concentrations. Deployment of foreign mercenary personnel (e.g., Cubans) will continue to supplement RF ground forces (Николаевский Ванёк). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming strikes on UAF positions on the Donetsk direction, indicating continued localized ground offensive support. Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming "Akhmat" special forces successfully used a KVN drone to strike a UAF pickup truck with infantry in a wooded area on the Kharkiv direction, claiming "3 dead fighters," directly indicating ground offensive actions supported by precision UAVs. Воин DV posts video detailing renewed artillery strikes and attacks on enemy personnel in the Polozhskoye direction, demonstrating continued offensive operations. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo of a tactical map implying RF claims of significant territorial control or advances in Kupiansk, supporting the likelihood of continued ground offensives. Despite "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reporting a "difficult period," RF ground offensives are likely to continue, with emphasis on using "evacuation" leaflets in Sumy Oblast (Velyka Pysarivka) as a psychological operation possibly preceding or accompanying ground incursions in border regions. Военкор Котенок's report on a deficit of medics suggests RF is facing sustainment strain for prolonged offensives, which could present an opportunity for UAF. The General Staff reports from UAF indicate significant RF ground engagement across multiple axes. RF will intensify counter-DRG operations (e.g., against UAF "Baba Yaga" drone groups on the Dnieper) to protect their positions and logistical routes. RF Wagner Group personnel training Belarusian forces indicates an intent to increase readiness and potentially integrate these forces into future operations. The "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition promotes a narrative of heroism to support ongoing ground operations. The appointment of a former UAF officer to command the Kupiansk offensive suggests a deliberate strategy to leverage insider knowledge for potential breakthroughs. Military police of the Western Group of Forces providing assistance to farmers in LNR (Colonelcassad) indicates continued RF presence and attempts to stabilize occupied territories while freeing up other units for combat. RF will leverage IO (TASS claims) about UAF abandoning NATO weapons to reinforce narratives of UAF tactical setbacks and demoralization. TASS claims of advances at Kucherovka and Petropavlovka are immediate indicators of continued localized ground offensives. The "Два майора" video from Nesterianka, showing intense UAF artillery and drone attacks on RF positions, indicates a high level of reciprocal ground activity. TASS claims of RF SOF destroying UAF militants on the Vremevsky direction indicate continued RF ground operations with specialized units. RF will also continue to utilize mine warfare and booby traps, as reported in Zaporizhzhia, to inflict casualties and psychological impact on UAF ground forces, requiring UAF to commit demining resources. RF will continue to apply pressure in Novoyekonomichne, Donetsk Oblast, as evidenced by ongoing artillery/missile strikes and fires. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦) RF will seek to take full fire control of UAF logistics around Krasnoarmeysk, as claimed by Kimakovsky. (ТАСС) RF will continue to provide air cover for ground assault groups using drones to counter UAF heavy copters. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)
- Aerial: High-volume drone and missile attacks targeting critical infrastructure, particularly energy and railway networks, with a continued willingness to use guided aerial bombs on civilian targets (e.g., Konstantinovka). Expect retaliatory strikes for UAF deep strikes. Continued drone activity towards Pavlohrad, and now, significantly, increased drone threats to Kyiv from Chernihiv and Bryansk Oblasts. The newly reported Shahed launch facility in Bryansk Oblast indicates a potential for increased drone volume and shorter flight times to northern Ukraine. The immediate high-volume drone attack against Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast has just concluded. While the immediate aerial threat to Kyiv has passed, the persistent pattern of high-volume drone and missile attacks dictates that RF will likely launch another large-scale aerial campaign within 24-48 hours, targeting critical infrastructure across Ukraine, potentially including Kyiv again. RF will continue FPV drone operations, including anti-UAV missions, in contested airspace. RF will continue targeted drone attacks on cities like Pavlohrad, likely to degrade air defenses and disrupt logistical hubs. RF will continue to project air defense successes over annexed territories, such as Crimea, to reassure its population and demonstrate control. RF will continue aerial attacks causing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, as seen in the latest reports. RF will seek to disrupt payment systems in Kyiv public transport through aerial attacks. RF will deploy new Pantsir-SMD SAM systems to enhance its air defense, particularly against UAF drones and missiles, and potentially in forward combat zones. RF will conduct drone reconnaissance and surveillance missions, as observed with the "Rubikon" (Lekka-100) drone, particularly over agricultural areas. RF will continue to launch drone strikes into Belgorod Oblast, risking civilian casualties, potentially as a retaliatory measure or to assert control over border regions. RF will continue to launch multi-directional drone attacks in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, as indicated by recent UAF Air Force warnings. RF will continue to target Ukrainian military-industrial complex (WPK) sites, as claimed in Pavlohrad. (Военкор Котенок)
- Hybrid/IO: Intensified disinformation campaigns focusing on UAF disorganization, corruption, and internal divisions (e.g., the alleged GUR vs. President's Office conflict, the former UAF brigadier general commanding the Kupiansk assault). Amplification of RF internal security successes and alleged UAF atrocities. Leveraging any Western political statements or domestic issues to sow discord. RF will actively attempt to discredit UAF external support by claiming internal corruption or illicit dealings (e.g., Rostec servicing UAF helicopters). They will continue to challenge international legal decisions (e.g., MH17) to undermine international consensus against them. RF will leverage high-level personnel changes (Kozak's dismissal) to project an image of effective governance and adapt its internal narratives. RF IO will continue to monitor and leverage international political statements (e.g., Trump's comments on TikTok, China, and ceasefire, Taiwan aid) to shape global perceptions. RF will also leverage internal economic news (e.g., budget forecasts) to project stability, and portray Western economies as facing crisis (e.g., Business Insider report). The "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition is an ongoing IO effort to reinforce patriotism and military heroism. RF IO will continue to promote the rehabilitation of historical figures like Stalin to unify narratives. RF will use ambiguous or pre-emptive messaging (e.g., "Timely Terrorist Attack" video) to create confusion or prepare for false flag operations. RF will continue to attempt to distract from the conflict by promoting narratives of normalcy within Russia (e.g., iPhone launch, S7 uniforms). RF will amplify any Western statements (e.g., Trump's "no ceasefire" stance) that appear to align with RF's position of strength. RF will also use external geopolitical developments (e.g., Turkey's interest in BRICS/ASEAN) to project a shifting global alignment away from Western dominance. RF IO is attempting to create alternative narratives (e.g., "boat with 60 drug addicts" by Рыбарь) to distract or misdirect from current events, potentially attempting to counter UAF successes or deflect from RF military actions. RF diplomatic channels are open for discussion with the US regarding diplomatic missions, implying an intention to maintain low-level communication despite military conflict. RF IO will continue to promote narratives of international support for Russia (IAEA abstentions) and portray Western intelligence as aggressive (MI6 darknet portal). RF IO will proactively promote social welfare initiatives (e.g., increased maternity capital) to project state care and domestic stability, aiming to bolster public trust and support for the government and its policies, including the war effort. RF IO will also promote internal narratives regarding military and civilian salary disparities, portraying UAF personnel as potentially exploited or facing significant psychological tolls (Операция Z message). RF will continue to undermine international support for Ukraine, as seen in the TASS claim of UAF abandoning NATO weapons in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Roskomnadzor's actions to block fraudulent SIM cards will be leveraged by RF IO to project effective internal security and control over digital communications. RF IO will intensify narratives around internal security and "terrorism," leveraging cases like the General Kirillov murder to justify state actions and portray Ukraine as a source of instability. RF IO will actively use statements from figures like Vodolatsky to shape narratives about the conflict's duration and resolution, specifically linking it to Western political developments (e.g., US elections) to manage expectations and maintain domestic support for a protracted conflict. RF will continue its legal challenges against international decisions (MH17 appeal) to undermine international consensus and deny accountability. Colonelcassad's video showcasing China's robot dog firing an RPG, while not RF action, presents a powerful visual that RF IO could leverage to promote the idea of rapid technological advancement by its allies or potential future threats to UAF, serving as psychological warfare. RF IO will leverage Trump's alleged refusal of military aid to Taiwan for a deal with China to highlight perceived US geopolitical shifts and potential weakening of US alliances (РБК-Україна). ТАСС's video on the captured Croatian citizen from UAF will be extensively used for IO, focusing on foreign national involvement and UAF disorganization. Рыбарь posts a daily situation summary, "Chronicle of the SMO for September 18," indicating continued structured RF information dissemination.
UAF Narratives: Emphasis on repelling RF assaults, successful deep strikes (Salavat refinery, Buk-M2), and the capture of RF personnel (425th Regiment "Skelya", "STRIKS" unit successes, border guard strikes, SBU agent detention, Kharkiv spotter detention, 35th Combined Arms Army casualties list) reinforces UAF's fighting capability and resolve. Zelenskyy's report of successful counter-offensive in Donetsk Oblast, including liberated territory and significant RF casualties, is a major boost to this narrative. The active public fundraising for advanced FPV drones ("best drones to work with") is a key part of this narrative. Reconnaissance personnel are highlighted as key to victory. The destroyed Poltava monument helicopter also serves as a symbol of resilience. UAF artillery displaying adaptability and continuous operation also reinforces this. President Zelenskyy's direct engagement with frontline units in Donetsk Oblast and the 82nd Air Assault Brigade command post further supports this narrative. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts reinforcing soldier morale. The 1st Assault Regiment's success near Dobropillya reinforces this. President Zelenskyy meeting with 79th Air Assault Brigade soldiers directly supports the narrative of resilience and success, highlighting specific unit involvement in current operations. The arrival of US PURL weapons is a strong narrative for continued international support and UAF capabilities. The Presidential Brigade of UAF posts a video showcasing night combat operations, emphasizing vigilance and effectiveness. Dnipropetrovsk ODA Head visiting emergency medical services championship highlights preparedness and resilience in the face of attacks. Zaporizhzhia ODA posts about evacuating young footballers, highlighting humanitarian efforts amidst conflict. "Підрозділ Shadow" posts video of successful drone strikes on RF shelters, reinforcing UAF precision strike capabilities. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts video of the UAF 1st Assault Battalion holding its front line in Zaporizhzhia and destroying enemy forces with FPV drones, confirming UAF effectiveness and morale. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts video of the "STRIKS" unit's FPV drone successes on the Southern Slobozhansky direction, further confirming advanced tactical drone integration. Олександр Вілкул posts a briefing detailing the transfer of 10 DJI Matrice 4T quadcopters to the 77th Airmobile Brigade. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a photo message featuring a drone with the caption "Дальність? Вітер? Борт заармовано?" (Range? Wind? Board armed?), indicating UAF's technical focus on drone operations. The "VARTOVI" unmanned systems battalion and 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" are actively demonstrating effective drone operations. Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement about Ukraine using 1000 interceptor drones daily indicates an immediate and significant scaling of UAF counter-UAV capabilities. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts multiple photo messages showcasing a tactical screen with telemetry data. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement that Ukraine will use 1000 interceptor drones per day in the near future, indicating a strategic shift towards large-scale counter-UAV operations. Ukraine is producing 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month and aims for 7 missiles daily by year-end, which will be leveraged to project growing domestic defense capabilities. Documenting casualties (Konstantinovka КАБ strike killing 5 civilians), damage to civilian infrastructure (Nizhyn, Zaporizhzhia), and war crimes allegations (exhumation videos, Donetsk displacement photos) aims to highlight RF atrocities and maintain international support. The opening of a memorial alley in Zaporizhzhia directly reinforces the narrative of sacrifice and remembrance. Demining efforts highlight UAF efforts to protect civilians. Dnipropetrovsk ODA reporting КАБ and drone strikes on civilian communities highlights RF aggression and humanitarian impact. Renewed air alerts in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast are implicitly used to highlight ongoing RF aggression against civilian areas. Reports on investigations into TCC officials and high-level fraud, recent corruption busts in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the investigation into a pro-Russian judge, the detention of Novinsky (RPC curator), and the uncovering of an organized gambling network in Kyiv demonstrate commitment to transparency and good governance. Prosecution of an FSB officer for war crimes. Life sentence for an FSB officer who brutally treated civilians in Kherson Oblast demonstrates accountability for war crimes. Exposure of a human trafficking ring led by a PRC citizen. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the conviction of a "Rashist" who oversaw the "Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation" during the occupation of Kherson, which serves to project UAF's commitment to justice and accountability. Zelenskyy's statements confirming successful operations on RF territory and the impact on the RF fuel sector highlight UAF's growing asymmetrical capabilities. Highlighting security cooperation agreements with partners like Greece and the new drone cooperation agreement with Poland, including a joint operational group. New military aid from Ireland. Poland checking bomb shelters also indirectly signals allied seriousness about RF threats. РБК-Україна reporting Starmer's commitment to help Ukraine with Trump (photo message) promotes this. Trump's statements about "Putin letting him down" and hopes for "good news" on the Ukraine settlement are being used by UAF IO to highlight potential divisions in the West's perception of Putin's actions and a desire for peace on Ukraine's terms. Confirmation of US PURL weapons arrival is a strong narrative for continued international support and UAF capabilities. Operatyvny ZSU also reports the first US PURL weapon delivery. An EU Ambassador emphasizing the need for energy reforms in Ukraine (РБК-Україна) highlights continued international interest and support for Ukraine's long-term stability. UAF IO material depicting soldiers in combat and sacrifice, often leveraging emotional elements like a fallen soldier with a cat, reinforces patriotic narratives. Training initiatives for national resistance also foster patriotism. The Military Ombudsman law emphasizes caring for service members. The Coordination Headquarters provides critical support for families of POWs/MIA, bolstering morale. Active reporting on the return of bodies of fallen servicemen demonstrates transparency and care for personnel. Report on no elections in 2026 implies UAF IO to justify wartime measures. Appointment of Tetyana Chornovol as people's deputy highlights democratic processes. РБК-Україна posts a photo message featuring an analytical piece titled "War, Ukraine, the world. What to pay attention to today," which frames ongoing events from a Ukrainian perspective. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the EU will accelerate its rejection of Russian LNG due to pressure from Trump, positioning this as a positive outcome for Ukraine. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video with an inflammatory caption against the "second army," displaying strong anti-RF sentiment and bolstering UAF morale and resolve. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a video compilation documenting over 1300 combat engagements in the last seven days, with nearly a third on the Pokrovsk direction. РБК-Україна posts a photo message stating Zelenskyy invited Qatar to a summit in New York regarding the return of Ukrainian children, highlighting humanitarian diplomacy. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo message detailing the exposure of heads of military medical commissions in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts for bribery, promoting transparency and anti-corruption efforts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo message announcing the opening of a mental health center in Ternopil for military personnel and veterans, emphasizing support for service members. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts drone footage of Mykolaiv marines (VARTOVI battalion) successfully striking Russian vehicles, artillery, and infantry, demonstrating UAF effectiveness and boosting morale. "БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС" posts drone footage of the 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" destroying eight Russian assault troops on the Pokrovsk direction, further reinforcing the narrative of successful UAF operations and precision. "РБК-Україна" refutes claims of a "data leak" from e-Notariat, serving to reassure the public about data security and counter RF disinformation. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports RF is distributing "evacuation" leaflets in Velyka Pysarivka, Sumy Oblast, which UAF IO can frame as a sign of RF desperation or fear of UAF counter-action. "Оперативний ЗСУ" crowdfunding for the Pokrovsk direction highlights continued public support. "Colonelcassad" posts an image claiming Russian forces destroyed "Georgian mercenary Yura Kalandarishvili," which RF IO will use to discredit foreign fighters and claim successes against NATO-aligned personnel, but UAF IO can use it to highlight the international nature of the conflict and RF's willingness to target foreign fighters. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a humorous video with "victory music," likely a morale-boosting effort. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that a former Ukrainian brigadier general who betrayed Ukraine in 2014 is commanding the assault on Kupiansk, a narrative highlighting internal betrayal which UAF IO can use to emphasize the enemy's reliance on such figures. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна reporting on the "Gerbera" UAV fragment found on a Latvian beach highlights RF external aggression. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement about 1000 interceptor drones daily, boosting morale by projecting a strong, adaptive, and technologically advanced defense. UAF IO will likely frame the EU's accelerated rejection of Russian LNG (Bloomberg) as a victory for international pressure and a sign of weakening Russian economic power. UAF IO will counter RF amplification of Trump's "no ceasefire" statement by highlighting it as evidence that international leaders recognize Putin's unwillingness to genuinely negotiate, reinforcing UAF's resolve to continue fighting. РБК-Україна highlights Poland conducting large-scale checks of bomb shelters, framing it within the context of European readiness to RF threats. РБК-Україна shares a video of Donald Trump suggesting Europe taking action against China could accelerate the end of the war in Ukraine, which UAF IO will likely monitor for opportunities to reinforce narratives of international pressure on RF. Оперативний ЗСУ posts messages regarding Russia's challenge to the ICAO decision on MH17, framing it as Russia attempting to evade responsibility. РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Pavlohrad, and Николаевский Ванёк reports successful downing of drones. These immediate reports from UAF-aligned channels serve as direct IO reinforcing UAF's active defense and effectiveness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting that Ukraine produces 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month, aiming for 7 daily by year-end, which will be leveraged to project growing domestic defense capabilities. The UAF Air Force (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) reporting 20+ Shaheds from Chernihiv to Kyiv is a direct and immediate UAF IO response highlighting ongoing RF threats and UAF defensive vigilance. The Air Force of Ukraine (Повітряні Сили ЗС України) report on a group of UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast also serves as a critical, immediate UAF IO communication. РБК-Україна posts a video message reporting RF has recently built a new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast, 35 km from the Ukrainian border, attributed to OSINT-analyst Brady Africk. РБК-Україна also posts a tactical analysis of a satellite image of the Bryansk Oblast launch site. This new site likely implies an increased and more direct drone threat to northern Ukraine, particularly Kyiv and Sumy Oblasts. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posted a video claiming to show aerial combat on the Zaporizhzhia front, displaying FPV drone footage, telemetry data, and what appears to be a Ukrainian drone targeting Russian equipment. This visual confirmation reinforces UAF's active and successful use of drones in combat.

NEW INTELLIGENCE:

Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast (RF Claim): "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming the 1009th regiment destroyed UAF infantry in Volchansk. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (UAF Report): "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports on the consequences of enemy night attacks on Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (UAF Report): "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" reports a 74-year-old man was injured due to an enemy attack on the Stepnohirsk community. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Kyiv (UAF Report): "РБК-Україна" and "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" report possible disruptions to card payments and ticket validation on high-speed trams and funiculars in Kyiv due to the night shelling. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Netherlands Refugee Policy: РБК-Україна reports that the Netherlands is considering excluding Ukrainian male refugees from the housing system. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Bornholm (RF Allegation): ТАСС reports Russian Ambassador to Denmark, Vladimir Barbin, claimed Bornholm Island is used by Copenhagen to create security threats to Russia, particularly Kaliningrad Oblast. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Yampil, DNR (RF Claim): ТАСС reports Marochko claimed RF Army broke through UAF defenses and entered Yampil in DNR. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Nesterianka (RF Claims): "Два майора" posts video claiming UAF "radio-controlled kamikaze drones, fiber-optic attack UAVs, artillery shelling, and tank fire" on RF positions in Nesterianka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
RF Casualties: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports an additional 1150 personnel neutralized in the last 24 hours. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)
IAEA Resolution: РБК-Україна (UAF source) reports the IAEA General Conference adopted a resolution calling on Russia to return control of the Zaporizhzhia NPP to Ukraine. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Kryvyi Rih Situation: Олександр Вілкул (UAF source) reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of the morning of 19.09.25. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF Fundraising: "STERNENKO" reports collecting an additional 8 million UAH for the UAF yesterday. (FACT, UAF REPORT) NEW: STERNENKO further posts an image indicating more coffee/donations are "flying" to cut down "Russians." (FACT, UAF REPORT)
EU LNG Policy: "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports Bloomberg's statement that the EU plans to reject Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) as quickly as possible. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF Deep Strike (Kursk Oblast): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) posts video claiming SSO struck a logistics hub of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade (OBRMPS) in Kursk Oblast. (FACT, UAF CLAIM) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS corroborates this with video evidence of the strike, showing an industrial or military complex. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)
Kyiv Memorial: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts photo messages commemorating fallen defenders from Kyiv. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Minute of Silence (UAF): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ, and Офіс Генерального прокурора post messages commemorating a nationwide minute of silence for fallen soldiers. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Nationalization: Север.Реалии reports the nationalization of the "Музыка" publishing house in Russia. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Vehicle Discounts: ТАСС reports Russian car dealers are reducing discounts on 2024 models due to reduced stock. (FACT, RF REPORT)
STERNENKO Assessment: STERNENKO posts an "IMMEDIATE ASSESSMENT" with no additional text, indicating continued public engagement and commentary. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (RF Gamification Claim): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video featuring Igor Kimakovsky, advisor to the head of the DNR, discussing a "scoring system" for military actions, suggesting a "gamification of war." (FACT, RF IO via UAF-aligned source)
PNV (RF Source): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts photo messages captioned "Про 4-х глазый ПНВ!", referring to 4-eyed night vision devices, likely highlighting RF special forces equipment. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Trump-Xi Jinping Call (UAF Report): РБК-Україна reports Trump and Xi Jinping are scheduled to hold a phone call today, discussing unspecified topics. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF FPV Interceptors: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts a video showcasing the "most effective FPV interceptor pilot" of the 71st Separate Jaeger Brigade of the Air Assault Forces (DSHV), highlighting their role in reconnaissance and striking enemy equipment. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Internal UAF Corruption: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the detention in Dnipro of a former military unit commander who allegedly organized a "profitable scheme for desertion." (FACT, UAF REPORT)
POW/MIA Family Meeting: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) reports a meeting with families of captured and missing defenders from various brigades. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Information Control (Roaming Scammers): ТАСС reports Roskomnadzor is considering partial restrictions on Russian SIM cards in roaming due to scammers calling from them. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Social Policy (Contraceptives): Новости Москвы reports a proposal in Russia to ban contraceptives for married couples. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Siversk Offensive (Rybar Analysis): Два майора posts a video analyzing Rybar's tactical map, indicating RF forces advancing around Serebryanka and Novoyelivka, aiming to consolidate positions and potentially encircle Ukrainian strongholds north of Serebryanka, specifically in an "offensive bypassing Siversk." (FACT, RF REPORT)
Kherson Region (UAF Civilian Presence): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video of a man in military attire in a watermelon field in Vinogradova, Kherson region, with the caption "My field - my watermelons!" (FACT, UAF-aligned report, suggests UAF presence in civilian-populated areas of Kherson).
UAF Naval Operations (Tendra Spit): РБК-Україна posts video claiming GUR special forces landed on Tendra Spit and ambushed RF forces, destroying a landing craft. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Kupiansk/Lyman POWs (UAF Claim): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming soldiers of the 425th Regiment "Skelya" captured 17 POWs in a week on the Pokrovsk and Lyman directions. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)
Southern Front Civilian Shelling: Сили оборони Півдня України (UAF source) reports RF conducted 7 shellings on 6 settlements in the Southern operational zone yesterday, affecting civilians. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Southern Front Shahed Interceptions: Сили оборони Півдня України (UAF source) reports 3 Shahed-136/131 UAVs were destroyed in the Southern operational zone yesterday. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Kitchen Knives (Propaganda): Старше Эдды posts a video promoting "kitchen knife sets," a civilian normalcy propaganda piece. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Orikhiv Anniversary (UAF Civilian): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts photos celebrating Orikhiv's 250th anniversary. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Morale (Chaplain): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts video about a priest choosing the front line over "capital calm," highlighting RF spiritual support/morale. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Narcotics Interception: ТАСС reports FSB and FTS thwarted cocaine smuggling (1750 kg, 20 billion rubles). (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Civilian Messaging (Fines): Новости Москвы posts a photo message about fines for "insulting with the word 'vegetable'", suggesting internal social controls. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Krasnoarmeysk Logistics Fire Control (RF Claim): ТАСС reports Kimakovsky claimed RF forces took full fire control of all UAF logistics around Krasnoarmeysk. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Pavlohrad WPK Hit (RF Claim): Военкор Котенок reports "enemy resources" confirm an ammunition depot and chemical enterprise (part of Ukrainian WPK) were hit in Pavlohrad overnight. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Zelenskyy US Drone/Weapon Proposals (UAF Report): РБК-Україна posts photos and caption indicating Zelenskyy made large-scale drone and weapon proposals to the USA. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Moscow Traffic Lights (Civilian): Новости Москвы posts a photo message about testing traffic lights with contour lighting in Moscow. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Novoyvanovka Fatalities (RF Source): Воин DV posts graphic images (21+) claiming Ukrainian servicemen defending Novoyvanovka made the "wrong choice," implying significant UAF casualties. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
RF Internal Politics (Utlisbor): Басурин о главном discusses "Utlisbor" (recycling fee) and who profits, indicating internal Russian economic discussions. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Propaganda (Macron): Kotsnews reports on "disagreements of allies and justifications of Macrons," indicating RF IO amplifying Western disunity. (FACT, RF REPORT)
UAF Body Repatriation (UAF Report): Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts videos and photos stating 1000 bodies, confirmed as Ukrainians by "Rashists," were returned to Ukraine. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF "Gamification of War" (IO): Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video featuring Igor Kimakovsky discussing a "scoring system" for military actions, framed as RF "gamification of war." (FACT, UAF-aligned IO)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

Capabilities (Confidence: HIGH): RF continues to demonstrate robust ground offensive capabilities on multiple axes, supported by significant artillery and glide bomb resources. They possess advanced FPV drone and reconnaissance UAV capabilities. RF maintains a strong strategic aviation and naval presence, conducting exercises like "Zapad-2025" and "Rubezh 2025." The capability to conduct deep strikes (Salavat refinery implies UAF capability) and high-volume drone attacks is confirmed. RF retains a sophisticated information warfare apparatus capable of multi-layered disinformation campaigns. Their ability to recruit and deploy foreign nationals (Cuban mercenaries, Croatian citizens) and controversial personnel (pardoned criminals) reflects ongoing efforts to augment manpower. RF is adapting its tactics, experimenting with UGVs and attempting urban infiltration. They possess advanced EW capabilities (Orlan-30 drone EW resistance). The reported construction of a new "Shahed" drone launch facility (Bryansk Oblast) indicates growing production capacity for UAVs and an advanced launch posture. RF continues to train allied forces, as evidenced by Wagner's training of Belarusian forces. RF leadership has demonstrated the capability to make high-level personnel changes, as seen with Kozak's release. RF maintains economic stability, as indicated by the Ministry of Finance's budget forecasts. RF has secured a commander for the Kupiansk offensive with prior UAF experience, potentially offering a tactical advantage. RF demonstrates a continued capability for high-intensity, multi-wave drone attacks targeting the capital, specifically Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast. RF continues to demonstrate naval construction capabilities, albeit with significant delays, as evidenced by the launch of the "Strelok" missile boat. This highlights a persistent, long-term effort to maintain and modernize its naval fleet. RF has the capability to intercept and destroy Ukrainian FPV drones, as demonstrated by the Воин DV video and the new Операция Z video from Zaporizhzhia. RF possesses the capability for extensive cyber and information control, as evidenced by Roskomnadzor blocking a large number of fraudulent SIM cards associated with messenger services. This indicates a sophisticated state-level capability to monitor and manipulate digital communication infrastructure. RF's Pacific Fleet demonstrated cruise missile launch capabilities from nuclear submarines, underscoring their strategic naval power projection. China's testing of armed robot dogs (Colonelcassad) demonstrates advancements in unmanned ground systems, which, while not RF capabilities, highlights global trends in military technology that RF may seek to emulate or counter. RF has a demonstrated capability to conduct multi-wave drone attacks, as seen in the overnight attack on Pavlohrad. RF is capable of sustained ground assaults, including the use of incendiary munitions against UAF infantry, as reported in Volchansk. RF has the capability to inflict civilian casualties through precision strikes, as evidenced by the attack on the Stepnohirsk community. RF has the capability to conduct targeted SOF operations, as claimed by Colonelcassad on the Vremevsky direction. RF has demonstrated the capability to develop and field sophisticated air defense systems, as evidenced by Israel's Iron Beam (reported by RF source) which may influence RF's own R&D. RF has delivered a batch of new "Pantsir-SMD" SAM systems, indicating continued modernization of air defense capabilities. RF has demonstrated surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities using drones, as seen with the "Rubikon" video. RF has shown the ability to inflict civilian casualties in Belgorod Oblast through drone strikes. UAF SSO has demonstrated deep strike capability against RF logistics hubs in Kursk Oblast. RF's 5th Guards Army "Vostok" Group drone operators are active on the Vremevsky direction, demonstrating continued drone ISR and strike capability. RF naval capabilities include long-range cruise missile launches from nuclear submarines, as demonstrated by the Pacific Fleet exercises in the Okhotsk Sea. (Басурин о главном) RF possesses foreign military technology analysis capabilities, as evidenced by reports on Japan's railgun test. (Colonelcassad) RF maintains control over its telecommunications to combat fraud, which could be extended for broader information control. (ТАСС) RF has demonstrated capability to interdict large-scale narcotics smuggling, projecting internal security capability. (ТАСС) RF can provide drone air cover for assault groups to counter UAF heavy copters. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)
Intentions (Confidence: HIGH): RF intends to maintain offensive pressure on key axes (Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia) to achieve territorial gains and attrit UAF forces. They aim to degrade Ukrainian critical infrastructure (energy, railways) through persistent aerial attacks. RF intends to continue robust information warfare to sow discord, demoralize UAF, and undermine international support. They will leverage geopolitical events and Western internal divisions for IO. RF also intends to protect its internal security and project an strong image of stability. The continuation of large-scale military exercises (Zapad-2025) indicates intent for sustained long-term military readiness and projection of power. RF intends to continue targeting UAF heavy artillery, as evidenced by the Konstantinovka M109A5 strike. RF appears to be increasing pressure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, as claimed by Воин DV. RF intends to project internal unity and strong leadership (MoD Russia's "Top News Today"). Russia's challenge to the ICAO decision on MH17 at the ICJ indicates an intention to continue challenging international legal frameworks and deny accountability. The "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition indicates an intent to sustain public support and morale for the conflict. RF's new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast signals an intention to increase aerial pressure on northern Ukraine. RF will continue to leverage historical narratives, as reported in the new message "Two majors", to promote national unity and justify current actions. RF intends to sustain and potentially escalate aerial pressure on Kyiv, likely as a retaliatory measure for the Salavat deep strike, and to inflict psychological impact and further degrade air defense systems. The ongoing drone attack on Kyiv confirms this immediate intention. RF intends to maintain its long-term naval modernization program (Project 12418 missile boats). RF intends to circumvent Western financial sanctions through cooperation with China (independent depository). RF will continue to leverage international forums and IO (IAEA abstentions, MI6 darknet portal, derisive comments about Kyiv attacks) to project international support, demonize Western intelligence, and demoralize Ukrainians. RF intends to develop and implement social support programs (e.g., increased maternity capital) to project state care and domestic stability, aiming to bolster long-term internal stability amidst the conflict. RF intends to maintain its counter-UAV capabilities and operations against Ukrainian drones. RF intends to maintain and enhance its control over the domestic information environment and communications, likely to counter internal dissent and foreign influence, as indicated by Roskomnadzor's actions. RF intends to continue pursuing and prosecuting individuals it deems responsible for internal "terrorist" acts, as seen in the General Kirillov murder case. RF intends to shape international perceptions of the conflict's duration and resolution, leveraging Western political dynamics, as expressed in the Vodolatsky interview. RF intends to continue challenging international legal decisions, as seen in their appeal against the MH17 ruling at the UN Court. RF intends to continue showcasing its strategic naval and missile capabilities through exercises. RF's daily "Chronicle of the SMO" by Рыбарь confirms their intention to maintain a consistent narrative regarding ongoing operations. RF intends to leverage any perceived vulnerabilities in the Netherlands' refugee policy to further its IO goals, portraying a lack of Western unity or support for Ukraine. RF intends to continue framing NATO as an aggressor, as seen in the Ambassador's comments regarding Bornholm. RF intends to exploit the perception of UAF abandoning NATO weapons to demoralize UAF forces and boost RF morale. RF intends to demonstrate control over annexed territories and project defensive capability, as seen in the RF Air Defense reports from Crimea. RF intends to maintain a consistent narrative of providing essential supplies to its frontline units, as seen in the "Военкоры Русской Весны" videos. RF intends to engage in psychological warfare and attrition against UAF personnel by deploying booby traps, as described by the RF demining group commander. RF intends to continue using high-volume drone attacks, as demonstrated by the overnight assault on Pavlohrad, to overwhelm UAF air defenses and strike infrastructure. RF intends to press ground assaults in Volchansk, likely seeking to attrit UAF forces and secure localized gains, employing incendiary munitions. RF intends to inflict civilian casualties and damage infrastructure in areas like Zaporizhzhia Oblast through aerial attacks. RF intends to use social welfare policies (e.g., family capital) to bolster domestic support and project state care. RF intends to leverage the US veto on the Gaza ceasefire to portray US diplomatic isolation and hypocrisy. RF intends to showcase its military industrial complex capabilities by announcing new SAM system deliveries. RF intends to maintain the current regulatory framework for cryptocurrency mining, signaling a degree of internal economic stability. RF intends to control information access during mobile network restrictions, reinforcing state control and security. RF intends to project air superiority through drone operations, as claimed by "Rubikon." RF intends to portray UAF as aggressive by reporting civilian casualties from drone strikes in Belgorod. RF intends to monitor and comment on broader geopolitical events, such as a possible US invasion of Venezuela, to demonstrate its global awareness and influence. RF intends to encircle Siversk by conducting battles in Vyemka and Pereyizne. RF intends to continue offensive operations in the Novopetrovske (Ternove) area despite encountering heavy UAF defenses, indicating persistence in achieving territorial gains. RF intends to leverage foreign military technology developments (Japan's railgun test) for strategic advantage in its military-industrial complex and future warfare planning. (Colonelcassad) RF intends to further control domestic information, as seen by potential restrictions on roaming SIM cards. (ТАСС) RF intends to promote traditional social values through policy proposals like banning contraceptives for married couples. (Новости Москвы) RF intends to exploit ongoing combat in Novoyekonomichne, Donetsk Oblast, to project military progress. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦) RF intends to continue discussions and planning for additional EU sanctions packages. (ТАСС) RF intends to project internal security success (e.g., cocaine interception). (ТАСС) RF intends to use internal social control mechanisms (e.g., fines for 'insulting' words). (Новости Москвы) RF intends to use "gamification" narratives for military actions (БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС) for internal consumption. (Оперативний ЗСУ) RF intends to project military control over UAF logistics around Krasnoarmeysk. (ТАСС) RF intends to strike Ukrainian WPK facilities, as claimed in Pavlohrad. (Военкор Котенок) RF intends to inflict significant UAF casualties in areas like Novoyvanovka. (Воин DV) RF intends to continue propaganda amplifying Western disunity (e.g., Macron). (Kotsnews)
Courses of Action (Confidence: HIGH):
- Ground: Sustained ground offensives on Kupiansk-Lyman, Southern Donetsk (Novoivanovka), Pokrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia (Kamyanske, Plavni) axes, with attempts at localized encirclements and urban combat. Continued use of combined arms, FPV drones, and possibly unconventional infiltration tactics. Counter-DRG operations (e.g., against "Baba Yaga" drones) will continue. The use of a former UAF officer to command the Kupiansk assault suggests an intent to exploit specific knowledge of UAF defenses and vulnerabilities. RF claims of advances near Kucherovka and Petropavlovka in the Kupiansk sector indicate an immediate continuation of localized ground offensives. Concurrently, RF will intensify ground operations in Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, utilizing incendiary munitions and drone support against UAF infantry. RF will push for a rapid breakthrough or envelopment of Yampil, DNR, capitalizing on claimed initial entry. RF will also continue to utilize mine warfare and booby traps, as reported in Zaporizhzhia, to inflict casualties and psychological impact on UAF ground forces. RF SOF units will continue localized operations to destroy UAF militants, as claimed on the Vremevsky direction. RF will continue battles in Vyemka and Pereyizne to encircle Siversk. RF will persist in offensive operations in Novopetrovske (Ternove), utilizing drones and small group infiltration tactics, despite minefields and anti-tank ditches. Localized advances on targets like Novonikolaevka, Malaya Tokmachka, Otradnoye, and in Dnipropetrovsk/Eastern Zaporizhzhia will persist to stretch UAF defenses. Precision MLRS strikes will continue on UAF positions, with a continued willingness to use guided aerial bombs on civilian targets (e.g., Konstantinovka). RF forces from "Zapad-2025" may be redeployed to active combat zones, potentially including the Kyiv axis, as implied by Janus Putkonen. Aggressive recruitment with high financial incentives will be sustained to back these operations. RF will also continue to enhance C2 networks in key offensive areas (e.g., Krasnoarmeysk direction). Putin's statements on over 700k personnel on the line of contact, though possibly inflated, suggest a high readiness to commit manpower. RF Army Aviation (Ka-52m) will continue to provide direct fire support to ground operations in relevant sectors (MoD Russia). RF will continue to leverage controversial recruitment methods (e.g., pardoned criminals, foreign nationals) to sustain manpower for these offensives (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, ТАСС). Cluster Iskander strikes against UAF company tactical groups (Druzhkivka) indicate an ongoing intent to target UAF troop concentrations. Deployment of foreign mercenary personnel (e.g., Cubans) will continue to supplement RF ground forces (Николаевский Ванёк). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming strikes on UAF positions on the Donetsk direction, indicating continued localized ground offensive support. Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming "Akhmat" special forces successfully used a KVN drone to strike a UAF pickup truck with infantry in a wooded area on the Kharkiv direction, claiming "3 dead fighters," directly indicating ground offensive actions supported by precision UAVs. Воин DV posts video detailing renewed artillery strikes and attacks on enemy personnel in the Polozhskoye direction, demonstrating continued offensive operations. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo of a tactical map implying RF claims of significant territorial control or advances in Kupiansk, supporting the likelihood of continued ground offensives. Despite "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reporting a "difficult period," RF ground offensives are likely to continue, with emphasis on using "evacuation" leaflets in Sumy Oblast (Velyka Pysarivka) as a psychological operation possibly preceding or accompanying ground incursions in border regions. Военкор Котенок's report on a deficit of medics suggests RF is facing sustainment strain for prolonged offensives, which could present an opportunity for UAF. The General Staff reports from UAF indicate significant RF ground engagement across multiple axes. RF will intensify counter-DRG operations (e.g., against UAF "Baba Yaga" drone groups on the Dnieper) to protect their positions and logistical routes. RF Wagner Group personnel training Belarusian forces indicates an intent to increase readiness and potentially integrate these forces into future operations. The "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition promotes a narrative of heroism to support ongoing ground operations. The appointment of a former UAF officer to command the Kupiansk offensive suggests a deliberate strategy to leverage insider knowledge for potential breakthroughs. Military police of the Western Group of Forces providing assistance to farmers in LNR (Colonelcassad) indicates continued RF presence and attempts to stabilize occupied territories while freeing up other units for combat. RF will leverage IO (TASS claims) about UAF abandoning NATO weapons to reinforce narratives of UAF tactical setbacks and demoralization. TASS claims of advances at Kucherovka and Petropavlovka are immediate indicators of continued localized ground offensives. The "Два майора" video from Nesterianka, showing intense UAF artillery and drone attacks on RF positions, indicates a high level of reciprocal ground activity. TASS claims of RF SOF destroying UAF militants on the Vremevsky direction indicate continued RF ground operations with specialized units. RF will also continue to utilize mine warfare and booby traps, as reported in Zaporizhzhia, to inflict casualties and psychological impact on UAF ground forces, requiring UAF to commit demining resources. RF will continue to apply pressure in Novoyekonomichne, Donetsk Oblast, as evidenced by ongoing artillery/missile strikes and fires. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦) RF will seek to take full fire control of UAF logistics around Krasnoarmeysk, as claimed by Kimakovsky. (ТАСС) RF will continue to provide air cover for ground assault groups using drones to counter UAF heavy copters. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)
- Aerial: High-volume drone and missile attacks targeting critical infrastructure, particularly energy and railway networks, with a continued willingness to use guided aerial bombs on civilian targets (e.g., Konstantinovka). Expect retaliatory strikes for UAF deep strikes. Continued drone activity towards Pavlohrad, and now, significantly, increased drone threats to Kyiv from Chernihiv and Bryansk Oblasts. The newly reported Shahed launch facility in Bryansk Oblast indicates a potential for increased drone volume and shorter flight times to northern Ukraine. The immediate high-volume drone attack against Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast has just concluded. While the immediate aerial threat to Kyiv has passed, the persistent pattern of high-volume drone and missile attacks dictates that RF will likely launch another large-scale aerial campaign within 24-48 hours, targeting critical infrastructure across Ukraine, potentially including Kyiv again. RF will continue FPV drone operations, including anti-UAV missions, in contested airspace. RF will continue targeted drone attacks on cities like Pavlohrad, likely to degrade air defenses and disrupt logistical hubs. RF will continue to project air defense successes over annexed territories, such as Crimea, to reassure its population and demonstrate control. RF will continue aerial attacks causing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, as seen in the latest reports. RF will seek to disrupt payment systems in Kyiv public transport through aerial attacks. RF will deploy new Pantsir-SMD SAM systems to enhance its air defense, particularly against UAF drones and missiles, and potentially in forward combat zones. RF will conduct drone reconnaissance and surveillance missions, as observed with the "Rubikon" (Lekka-100) drone, particularly over agricultural areas. RF will continue to launch drone strikes into Belgorod Oblast, risking civilian casualties, potentially as a retaliatory measure or to assert control over border regions. RF will continue to launch multi-directional drone attacks in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, as indicated by recent UAF Air Force warnings. RF will continue to target Ukrainian military-industrial complex (WPK) sites, as claimed in Pavlohrad. (Военкор Котенок)
- Hybrid/IO: Intensified disinformation campaigns focusing on UAF disorganization, corruption, and internal divisions (e.g., the alleged GUR vs. President's Office conflict, the former UAF brigadier general commanding the Kupiansk assault). Amplification of RF internal security successes and alleged UAF atrocities. Leveraging any Western political statements or domestic issues to sow discord. RF will actively attempt to discredit UAF external support by claiming internal corruption or illicit dealings (e.g., Rostec servicing UAF helicopters). They will continue to challenge international legal decisions (e.g., MH17) to undermine international consensus against them. RF will leverage high-level personnel changes (Kozak's dismissal) to project an image of effective governance and adapt its internal narratives. RF IO will continue to monitor and leverage international political statements (e.g., Trump's comments on TikTok, China, and ceasefire, Taiwan aid) to shape global perceptions. RF will also leverage internal economic news (e.g., budget forecasts) to project stability, and portray Western economies as facing crisis (e.g., Business Insider report). The "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition is an ongoing IO effort to reinforce patriotism and military heroism. RF IO will continue to promote the rehabilitation of historical figures like Stalin to unify narratives. RF will use ambiguous or pre-emptive messaging (e.g., "Timely Terrorist Attack" video) to create confusion or prepare for false flag operations. RF will continue to attempt to distract from the conflict by promoting narratives of normalcy within Russia (e.g., iPhone launch, S7 uniforms). RF will amplify any Western statements (e.g., Trump's "no ceasefire" stance) that appear to align with RF's position of strength. RF will also use external geopolitical developments (e.g., Turkey's interest in BRICS/ASEAN) to project a shifting global alignment away from Western dominance. RF IO is attempting to create alternative narratives (e.g., "boat with 60 drug addicts" by Рыбарь) to distract or misdirect from current events, potentially attempting to counter UAF successes or deflect from RF military actions. RF diplomatic channels are open for discussion with the US regarding diplomatic missions, implying an intention to maintain low-level communication despite military conflict. RF IO will continue to promote narratives of international support for Russia (IAEA abstentions) and portray Western intelligence as aggressive (MI6 darknet portal). RF IO will proactively promote social welfare initiatives (e.g., increased maternity capital) to project state care and domestic stability, aiming to bolster public trust and support for the government and its policies, including the war effort. RF IO will also promote internal narratives regarding military and civilian salary disparities, portraying UAF personnel as potentially exploited or facing significant psychological tolls (Операция Z message). RF will continue to undermine international support for Ukraine, as seen in the TASS claim of UAF abandoning NATO weapons in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Roskomnadzor's actions to block fraudulent SIM cards will be leveraged by RF IO to project effective internal security and control over digital communications. RF IO will intensify narratives around internal security and "terrorism," leveraging cases like the General Kirillov murder to justify state actions and portray Ukraine as a source of instability. RF IO will actively use statements from figures like Vodolatsky to shape narratives about the conflict's duration and resolution, specifically linking it to Western political developments (e.g., US elections) to manage expectations and maintain domestic support for a protracted conflict. RF will continue its legal challenges against international decisions (MH17 appeal) to undermine international consensus and deny accountability. Colonelcassad's video showcasing China's robot dog firing an RPG, while not RF action, presents a powerful visual that RF IO could leverage to promote the idea of rapid technological advancement by its allies or potential future threats to UAF, serving as psychological warfare. RF IO will leverage Trump's alleged refusal of military aid to Taiwan for a deal with China to highlight perceived US geopolitical shifts and potential weakening of US alliances (РБК-Україна). ТАСС's video on the captured Croatian citizen from UAF will be extensively used for IO, focusing on foreign national involvement and UAF disorganization. Рыбарь posts a daily situation summary, "Chronicle of the SMO for September 18," indicating continued structured RF information dissemination.
UAF Narratives: Emphasis on repelling RF assaults, successful deep strikes (Salavat refinery, Buk-M2), and the capture of RF personnel (425th Regiment "Skelya", "STRIKS" unit successes, border guard strikes, SBU agent detention, Kharkiv spotter detention, 35th Combined Arms Army casualties list) reinforces UAF's fighting capability and resolve. Zelenskyy's report of successful counter-offensive in Donetsk Oblast, including liberated territory and significant RF casualties, is a major boost to this narrative. The active public fundraising for advanced FPV drones ("best drones to work with") is a key part of this narrative. Reconnaissance personnel are highlighted as key to victory. The destroyed Poltava monument helicopter also serves as a symbol of resilience. UAF artillery displaying adaptability and continuous operation also reinforces this. President Zelenskyy's direct engagement with frontline units in Donetsk Oblast and the 82nd Air Assault Brigade command post further supports this narrative. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts reinforcing soldier morale. The 1st Assault Regiment's success near Dobropillya reinforces this. President Zelenskyy meeting with 79th Air Assault Brigade soldiers directly supports the narrative of resilience and success, highlighting specific unit involvement in current operations. The arrival of US PURL weapons is a strong narrative for continued international support and UAF capabilities. The Presidential Brigade of UAF posts a video showcasing night combat operations, emphasizing vigilance and effectiveness. Dnipropetrovsk ODA Head visiting emergency medical services championship highlights preparedness and resilience in the face of attacks. Zaporizhzhia ODA posts about evacuating young footballers, highlighting humanitarian efforts amidst conflict. "Підрозділ Shadow" posts video of successful drone strikes on RF shelters, reinforcing UAF precision strike capabilities. "БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС" posts video of the UAF 1st Assault Battalion holding its front line in Zaporizhzhia and destroying enemy forces with FPV drones, confirming UAF effectiveness and morale. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts video of the "STRIKS" unit's FPV drone successes on the Southern Slobozhansky direction, further confirming advanced tactical drone integration. Олександр Вілкул posts a briefing detailing the transfer of 10 DJI Matrice 4T quadcopters to the 77th Airmobile Brigade. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a photo message featuring a drone with the caption "Дальність? Вітер? Борт заармовано?" (Range? Wind? Board armed?), indicating UAF's technical focus on drone operations. The "VARTOVI" unmanned systems battalion and 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" are actively demonstrating effective drone operations. Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement about Ukraine using 1000 interceptor drones daily indicates an immediate and significant scaling of UAF counter-UAV capabilities. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts multiple photo messages showcasing a tactical screen with telemetry data. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement that Ukraine will use 1000 interceptor drones per day in the near future, indicating a strategic shift towards large-scale counter-UAV operations. Ukraine is producing 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month and aims for 7 missiles daily by year-end, which will be leveraged to project growing domestic defense capabilities. Documenting casualties (Konstantinovka КАБ strike killing 5 civilians), damage to civilian infrastructure (Nizhyn, Zaporizhzhia), and war crimes allegations (exhumation videos, Donetsk displacement photos) aims to highlight RF atrocities and maintain international support. The opening of a memorial alley in Zaporizhzhia directly reinforces the narrative of sacrifice and remembrance. Demining efforts highlight UAF efforts to protect civilians. Dnipropetrovsk ODA reporting КАБ and drone strikes on civilian communities highlights RF aggression and humanitarian impact. Renewed air alerts in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast are implicitly used to highlight ongoing RF aggression against civilian areas. Reports on investigations into TCC officials and high-level fraud, recent corruption busts in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the investigation into a pro-Russian judge, the detention of Novinsky (RPC curator), and the uncovering of an organized gambling network in Kyiv demonstrate commitment to transparency and good governance. Prosecution of an FSB officer for war crimes. Life sentence for an FSB officer who brutally treated civilians in Kherson Oblast demonstrates accountability for war crimes. Exposure of a human trafficking ring led by a PRC citizen. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the conviction of a "Rashist" who oversaw the "Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation" during the occupation of Kherson, which serves to project UAF's commitment to justice and accountability. Zelenskyy's statements confirming successful operations on RF territory and the impact on the RF fuel sector highlight UAF's growing asymmetrical capabilities. Highlighting security cooperation agreements with partners like Greece and the new drone cooperation agreement with Poland, including a joint operational group. New military aid from Ireland. Poland checking bomb shelters also indirectly signals allied seriousness about RF threats. РБК-Україна reporting Starmer's commitment to help Ukraine with Trump (photo message) promotes this. Trump's statements about "Putin letting him down" and hopes for "good news" on the Ukraine settlement are being used by UAF IO to highlight potential divisions in the West's perception of Putin's actions and a desire for peace on Ukraine's terms. Confirmation of US PURL weapons arrival is a strong narrative for continued international support and UAF capabilities. Operatyvny ZSU also reports the first US PURL weapon delivery. An EU Ambassador emphasizing the need for energy reforms in Ukraine (РБК-Україна) highlights continued international interest and support for Ukraine's long-term stability. UAF IO material depicting soldiers in combat and sacrifice, often leveraging emotional elements like a fallen soldier with a cat, reinforces patriotic narratives. Training initiatives for national resistance also foster patriotism. The Military Ombudsman law emphasizes caring for service members. The Coordination Headquarters provides critical support for families of POWs/MIA, bolstering morale. Active reporting on the return of bodies of fallen servicemen demonstrates transparency and care for personnel. Report on no elections in 2026 implies UAF IO to justify wartime measures. Appointment of Tetyana Chornovol as people's deputy highlights democratic processes. РБК-Україна posts a photo message featuring an analytical piece titled "War, Ukraine, the world. What to pay attention to today," which frames ongoing events from a Ukrainian perspective. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the EU will accelerate its rejection of Russian LNG due to pressure from Trump, positioning this as a positive outcome for Ukraine. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video with an inflammatory caption against the "second army," displaying strong anti-RF sentiment and bolstering UAF morale and resolve. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a video compilation documenting over 1300 combat engagements in the last seven days, with nearly a third on the Pokrovsk direction. РБК-Україна posts a photo message stating Zelenskyy invited Qatar to a summit in New York regarding the return of Ukrainian children, highlighting humanitarian diplomacy. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo message detailing the exposure of heads of military medical commissions in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts for bribery, promoting transparency and anti-corruption efforts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo message announcing the opening of a mental health center in Ternopil for military personnel and veterans, emphasizing support for service members. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts drone footage of Mykolaiv marines (VARTOVI battalion) successfully striking Russian vehicles, artillery, and infantry, demonstrating UAF effectiveness and boosting morale. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts drone footage of the 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" destroying eight Russian assault troops on the Pokrovsk direction, further reinforcing the narrative of successful UAF operations and precision. "РБК-Україна" refutes claims of a "data leak" from e-Notariat, serving to reassure the public about data security and counter RF disinformation. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports RF is distributing "evacuation" leaflets in Velyka Pysarivka, Sumy Oblast, which UAF IO can frame as a sign of RF desperation or fear of UAF counter-action. "Оперативний ЗСУ" crowdfunding for the Pokrovsk direction highlights continued public support. "Colonelcassad" posts an image claiming Russian forces destroyed "Georgian mercenary Yura Kalandarishvili," which RF IO will use to discredit foreign fighters and claim successes against NATO-aligned personnel, but UAF IO can use it to highlight the international nature of the conflict and RF's willingness to target foreign fighters. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a humorous video with "victory music," likely a morale-boosting effort. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that a former Ukrainian brigadier general who betrayed Ukraine in 2014 is commanding the assault on Kupiansk, a narrative highlighting internal betrayal which UAF IO can use to emphasize the enemy's reliance on such figures. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна reporting on the "Gerbera" UAV fragment found on a Latvian beach highlights RF external aggression. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement about 1000 interceptor drones daily, boosting morale by projecting a strong, adaptive, and technologically advanced defense. UAF IO will likely frame the EU's accelerated rejection of Russian LNG (Bloomberg) as a victory for international pressure and a sign of weakening Russian economic power. UAF IO will counter RF amplification of Trump's "no ceasefire" statement by highlighting it as evidence that international leaders recognize Putin's unwillingness to genuinely negotiate, reinforcing UAF's resolve to continue fighting. РБК-Україна highlights Poland conducting large-scale checks of bomb shelters, framing it within the context of European readiness to RF threats. РБК-Україна shares a video of Donald Trump suggesting Europe taking action against China could accelerate the end of the war in Ukraine, which UAF IO will likely monitor for opportunities to reinforce narratives of international pressure on RF. Оперативний ЗСУ posts messages regarding Russia's challenge to the ICAO decision on MH17, framing it as Russia attempting to evade responsibility. РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Pavlohrad, and Николаевский Ванёк reports successful downing of drones. These immediate reports from UAF-aligned channels serve as direct IO reinforcing UAF's active defense and effectiveness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting that Ukraine produces 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month, aiming for 7 daily by year-end, which will be leveraged to project growing domestic defense capabilities. The UAF Air Force (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) reporting 20+ Shaheds from Chernihiv to Kyiv is a direct and immediate UAF IO response highlighting ongoing RF threats and UAF defensive vigilance. The Air Force of Ukraine (Повітряні Сили ЗС України) report on a group of UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast also serves as a critical, immediate UAF IO communication. РБК-Україна posts a video message reporting RF has recently built a new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast, 35 km from the Ukrainian border, attributed to OSINT-analyst Brady Africk. РБК-Україна also posts a tactical analysis of a satellite image of the Bryansk Oblast launch site. This new site likely implies an increased and more direct drone threat to northern Ukraine, particularly Kyiv and Sumy Oblasts. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posted a video claiming to show aerial combat on the Zaporizhzhia front, displaying FPV drone footage, telemetry data, and what appears to be a Ukrainian drone targeting Russian equipment. This visual confirmation reinforces UAF's active and successful use of drones in combat.

NEW INTELLIGENCE:

Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast (RF Claim): "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming the 1009th regiment destroyed UAF infantry in Volchansk. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (UAF Report): "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports on the consequences of enemy night attacks on Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (UAF Report): "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" reports a 74-year-old man was injured due to an enemy attack on the Stepnohirsk community. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Kyiv (UAF Report): "РБК-Україна" and "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" report possible disruptions to card payments and ticket validation on high-speed trams and funiculars in Kyiv due to the night shelling. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Netherlands Refugee Policy: РБК-Україна reports that the Netherlands is considering excluding Ukrainian male refugees from the housing system. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Bornholm (RF Allegation): ТАСС reports Russian Ambassador to Denmark, Vladimir Barbin, claimed Bornholm Island is used by Copenhagen to create security threats to Russia, particularly Kaliningrad Oblast. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Yampil, DNR (RF Claim): ТАСС reports Marochko claimed RF Army broke through UAF defenses and entered Yampil in DNR. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Nesterianka (RF Claims): "Два майора" posts video claiming UAF "radio-controlled kamikaze drones, fiber-optic attack UAVs, artillery shelling, and tank fire" on RF positions in Nesterianka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
RF Casualties: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports an additional 1150 personnel neutralized in the last 24 hours. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)
IAEA Resolution: РБК-Україна (UAF source) reports the IAEA General Conference adopted a resolution calling on Russia to return control of the Zaporizhzhia NPP to Ukraine. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Kryvyi Rih Situation: Олександр Вілкул (UAF source) reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of the morning of 19.09.25. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF Fundraising: "STERNENKO" reports collecting an additional 8 million UAH for the UAF yesterday. (FACT, UAF REPORT) NEW: STERNENKO further posts an image indicating more coffee/donations are "flying" to cut down "Russians." (FACT, UAF REPORT)
EU LNG Policy: "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports Bloomberg's statement that the EU plans to reject Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) as quickly as possible. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF Deep Strike (Kursk Oblast): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) posts video claiming SSO struck a logistics hub of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade (OBRMPS) in Kursk Oblast. (FACT, UAF CLAIM) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS corroborates this with video evidence of the strike, showing an industrial or military complex. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)
Kyiv Memorial: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts photo messages commemorating fallen defenders from Kyiv. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Minute of Silence (UAF): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ, and Офіс Генерального прокурора post messages commemorating a nationwide minute of silence for fallen soldiers. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Nationalization: Север.Реалии reports the nationalization of the "Музыка" publishing house in Russia. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Vehicle Discounts: ТАСС reports Russian car dealers are reducing discounts on 2024 models due to reduced stock. (FACT, RF REPORT)
STERNENKO Assessment: STERNENKO posts an "IMMEDIATE ASSESSMENT" with no additional text, indicating continued public engagement and commentary. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (RF Gamification Claim): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video featuring Igor Kimakovsky, advisor to the head of the DNR, discussing a "scoring system" for military actions, suggesting a "gamification of war." (FACT, RF IO via UAF-aligned source)
PNV (RF Source): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts photo messages captioned "Про 4-х глазый ПНВ!", referring to 4-eyed night vision devices, likely highlighting RF special forces equipment. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Trump-Xi Jinping Call (UAF Report): РБК-Україна reports Trump and Xi Jinping are scheduled to hold a phone call today, discussing unspecified topics. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF FPV Interceptors: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts a video showcasing the "most effective FPV interceptor pilot" of the 71st Separate Jaeger Brigade of the Air Assault Forces (DSHV), highlighting their role in reconnaissance and striking enemy equipment. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Internal UAF Corruption: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the detention in Dnipro of a former military unit commander who allegedly organized a "profitable scheme for desertion." (FACT, UAF REPORT)
POW/MIA Family Meeting: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) reports a meeting with families of captured and missing defenders from various brigades. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Information Control (Roaming Scammers): ТАСС reports Roskomnadzor is considering partial restrictions on Russian SIM cards in roaming due to scammers calling from them. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Social Policy (Contraceptives): Новости Москвы reports a proposal in Russia to ban contraceptives for married couples. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Siversk Offensive (Rybar Analysis): Два майора posts a video analyzing Rybar's tactical map, indicating RF forces advancing around Serebryanka and Novoyelivka, aiming to consolidate positions and potentially encircle Ukrainian strongholds north of Serebryanka, specifically in an "offensive bypassing Siversk." (FACT, RF REPORT)
Kherson Region (UAF Civilian Presence): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video of a man in military attire in a watermelon field in Vinogradova, Kherson region, with the caption "My field - my watermelons!" (FACT, UAF-aligned report, suggests UAF presence in civilian-populated areas of Kherson).
UAF Naval Operations (Tendra Spit): РБК-Україна posts video claiming GUR special forces landed on Tendra Spit and ambushed RF forces, destroying a landing craft. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Kupiansk/Lyman POWs (UAF Claim): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming soldiers of the 425th Regiment "Skelya" captured 17 POWs in a week on the Pokrovsk and Lyman directions. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)
Southern Front Civilian Shelling: Сили оборони Півдня України (UAF source) reports RF conducted 7 shellings on 6 settlements in the Southern operational zone yesterday, affecting civilians. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Southern Front Shahed Interceptions: Сили оборони Півдня України (UAF source) reports 3 Shahed-136/131 UAVs were destroyed in the Southern operational zone yesterday. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Kitchen Knives (Propaganda): Старше Эдды posts a video promoting "kitchen knife sets," a civilian normalcy propaganda piece. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Orikhiv Anniversary (UAF Civilian): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts photos celebrating Orikhiv's 250th anniversary. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Morale (Chaplain): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts video about a priest choosing the front line over "capital calm," highlighting RF spiritual support/morale. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Narcotics Interception: ТАСС reports FSB and FTS thwarted cocaine smuggling (1750 kg, 20 billion rubles). (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Civilian Messaging (Fines): Новости Москвы posts a photo message about fines for "insulting with the word 'vegetable'", suggesting internal social controls. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Krasnoarmeysk Logistics Fire Control (RF Claim): ТАСС reports Kimakovsky claimed RF forces took full fire control of all UAF logistics around Krasnoarmeysk. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Pavlohrad WPK Hit (RF Claim): Военкор Котенок reports "enemy resources" confirm an ammunition depot and chemical enterprise (part of Ukrainian WPK) were hit in Pavlohrad overnight. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Zelenskyy US Drone/Weapon Proposals (UAF Report): РБК-Україна posts photos and caption indicating Zelenskyy made large-scale drone and weapon proposals to the USA. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Moscow Traffic Lights (Civilian): Новости Москвы posts a photo message about testing traffic lights with contour lighting in Moscow. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Novoyvanovka Fatalities (RF Source): Воин DV posts graphic images (21+) claiming Ukrainian servicemen defending Novoyvanovka made the "wrong choice," implying significant UAF casualties. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
RF Internal Politics (Utlisbor): Басурин о главном discusses "Utlisbor" (recycling fee) and who profits, indicating internal Russian economic discussions. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Propaganda (Macron): Kotsnews reports on "disagreements of allies and justifications of Macrons," indicating RF IO amplifying Western disunity. (FACT, RF REPORT)
UAF Body Repatriation (UAF Report): Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts videos and photos stating 1000 bodies, confirmed as Ukrainians by "Rashists," were returned to Ukraine. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF "Gamification of War" (IO): Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video featuring Igor Kimakovsky discussing a "scoring system" for military actions, framed as RF "gamification of war." (FACT, UAF-aligned IO)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

Capabilities (Confidence: HIGH): RF continues to demonstrate robust ground offensive capabilities on multiple axes, supported by significant artillery and glide bomb resources. They possess advanced FPV drone and reconnaissance UAV capabilities. RF maintains a strong strategic aviation and naval presence, conducting exercises like "Zapad-2025" and "Rubezh 2025." The capability to conduct deep strikes (Salavat refinery implies UAF capability) and high-volume drone attacks is confirmed. RF retains a sophisticated information warfare apparatus capable of multi-layered disinformation campaigns. Their ability to recruit and deploy foreign nationals (Cuban mercenaries, Croatian citizens) and controversial personnel (pardoned criminals) reflects ongoing efforts to augment manpower. RF is adapting its tactics, experimenting with UGVs and attempting urban infiltration. They possess advanced EW capabilities (Orlan-30 drone EW resistance). The reported construction of a new "Shahed" drone launch facility (Bryansk Oblast) indicates growing production capacity for UAVs and an advanced launch posture. RF continues to train allied forces, as evidenced by Wagner's training of Belarusian forces. RF leadership has demonstrated the capability to make high-level personnel changes, as seen with Kozak's release. RF maintains economic stability, as indicated by the Ministry of Finance's budget forecasts. RF has secured a commander for the Kupiansk offensive with prior UAF experience, potentially offering a tactical advantage. RF demonstrates a continued capability for high-intensity, multi-wave drone attacks targeting the capital, specifically Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast. RF continues to demonstrate naval construction capabilities, albeit with significant delays, as evidenced by the launch of the "Strelok" missile boat. This highlights a persistent, long-term effort to maintain and modernize its naval fleet. RF has the capability to intercept and destroy Ukrainian FPV drones, as demonstrated by the Воин DV video and the new Операция Z video from Zaporizhzhia. RF possesses the capability for extensive cyber and information control, as evidenced by Roskomnadzor blocking a large number of fraudulent SIM cards associated with messenger services. This indicates a sophisticated state-level capability to monitor and manipulate digital communication infrastructure. RF's Pacific Fleet demonstrated cruise missile launch capabilities from nuclear submarines, underscoring their strategic naval power projection. China's testing of armed robot dogs (Colonelcassad) demonstrates advancements in unmanned ground systems, which, while not RF capabilities, highlights global trends in military technology that RF may seek to emulate or counter. RF has a demonstrated capability to conduct multi-wave drone attacks, as seen in the overnight attack on Pavlohrad. RF is capable of sustained ground assaults, including the use of incendiary munitions against UAF infantry, as reported in Volchansk. RF has the capability to inflict civilian casualties through precision strikes, as evidenced by the attack on the Stepnohirsk community. RF has the capability to conduct targeted SOF operations, as claimed by Colonelcassad on the Vremevsky direction. RF has demonstrated the capability to develop and field sophisticated air defense systems, as evidenced by Israel's Iron Beam (reported by RF source) which may influence RF's own R&D. RF has delivered a batch of new "Pantsir-SMD" SAM systems, indicating continued modernization of air defense capabilities. RF has demonstrated surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities using drones, as seen with the "Rubikon" video. RF has shown the ability to inflict civilian casualties in Belgorod Oblast through drone strikes. UAF SSO has demonstrated deep strike capability against RF logistics hubs in Kursk Oblast. RF's 5th Guards Army "Vostok" Group drone operators are active on the Vremevsky direction, demonstrating continued drone ISR and strike capability. RF naval capabilities include long-range cruise missile launches from nuclear submarines, as demonstrated by the Pacific Fleet exercises in the Okhotsk Sea. (Басурин о главном) RF possesses foreign military technology analysis capabilities, as evidenced by reports on Japan's railgun test. (Colonelcassad) RF maintains control over its telecommunications to combat fraud, which could be extended for broader information control. (ТАСС) RF has demonstrated capability to interdict large-scale narcotics smuggling, projecting internal security capability. (ТАСС) RF can provide drone air cover for assault groups to counter UAF heavy copters. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)
Intentions (Confidence: HIGH): RF intends to maintain offensive pressure on key axes (Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia) to achieve territorial gains and attrit UAF forces. They aim to degrade Ukrainian critical infrastructure (energy, railways) through persistent aerial attacks. RF intends to continue robust information warfare to sow discord, demoralize UAF, and undermine international support. They will leverage geopolitical events and Western internal divisions for IO. RF also intends to protect its internal security and project an strong image of stability. The continuation of large-scale military exercises (Zapad-2025) indicates intent for sustained long-term military readiness and projection of power. RF intends to continue targeting UAF heavy artillery, as evidenced by the Konstantinovka M109A5 strike. RF appears to be increasing pressure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, as claimed by Воин DV. RF intends to project internal unity and strong leadership (MoD Russia's "Top News Today"). Russia's challenge to the ICAO decision on MH17 at the ICJ indicates an intention to continue challenging international legal frameworks and deny accountability. The "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition indicates an intent to sustain public support and morale for the conflict. RF's new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast signals an intention to increase aerial pressure on northern Ukraine. RF will continue to leverage historical narratives, as reported in the new message "Two majors", to promote national unity and justify current actions. RF intends to sustain and potentially escalate aerial pressure on Kyiv, likely as a retaliatory measure for the Salavat deep strike, and to inflict psychological impact and further degrade air defense systems. The ongoing drone attack on Kyiv confirms this immediate intention. RF intends to maintain its long-term naval modernization program (Project 12418 missile boats). RF intends to circumvent Western financial sanctions through cooperation with China (independent depository). RF will continue to leverage international forums and IO (IAEA abstentions, MI6 darknet portal, derisive comments about Kyiv attacks) to project international support, demonize Western intelligence, and demoralize Ukrainians. RF intends to develop and implement social support programs (e.g., increased maternity capital) to project state care and domestic stability, aiming to bolster long-term internal stability amidst the conflict. RF intends to maintain its counter-UAV capabilities and operations against Ukrainian drones. RF intends to maintain and enhance its control over the domestic information environment and communications, likely to counter internal dissent and foreign influence, as indicated by Roskomnadzor's actions. RF intends to continue pursuing and prosecuting individuals it deems responsible for internal "terrorist" acts, as seen in the General Kirillov murder case. RF intends to shape international perceptions of the conflict's duration and resolution, leveraging Western political dynamics, as expressed in the Vodolatsky interview. RF intends to continue challenging international legal decisions, as seen in their appeal against the MH17 ruling at the UN Court. RF intends to continue showcasing its strategic naval and missile capabilities through exercises. RF's daily "Chronicle of the SMO" by Рыбарь confirms their intention to maintain a consistent narrative regarding ongoing operations. RF intends to leverage any perceived vulnerabilities in the Netherlands' refugee policy to further its IO goals, portraying a lack of Western unity or support for Ukraine. RF intends to continue framing NATO as an aggressor, as seen in the Ambassador's comments regarding Bornholm. RF intends to exploit the perception of UAF abandoning NATO weapons to demoralize UAF forces and boost RF morale. RF intends to demonstrate control over annexed territories and project defensive capability, as seen in the RF Air Defense reports from Crimea. RF intends to maintain a consistent narrative of providing essential supplies to its frontline units, as seen in the "Военкоры Русской Весны" videos. RF intends to engage in psychological warfare and attrition against UAF personnel by deploying booby traps, as described by the RF demining group commander. RF intends to continue using high-volume drone attacks, as demonstrated by the overnight assault on Pavlohrad, to overwhelm UAF air defenses and strike infrastructure. RF intends to press ground assaults in Volchansk, likely seeking to attrit UAF forces and secure localized gains, employing incendiary munitions. RF intends to inflict civilian casualties and damage infrastructure in areas like Zaporizhzhia Oblast through aerial attacks. RF intends to use social welfare policies (e.g., family capital) to bolster domestic support and project state care. RF intends to leverage the US veto on the Gaza ceasefire to portray US diplomatic isolation and hypocrisy. RF intends to showcase its military industrial complex capabilities by announcing new SAM system deliveries. RF intends to maintain the current regulatory framework for cryptocurrency mining, signaling a degree of internal economic stability. RF intends to control information access during mobile network restrictions, reinforcing state control and security. RF intends to project air superiority through drone operations, as claimed by "Rubikon." RF intends to portray UAF as aggressive by reporting civilian casualties from drone strikes in Belgorod. RF intends to monitor and comment on broader geopolitical events, such as a possible US invasion of Venezuela, to demonstrate its global awareness and influence. RF intends to encircle Siversk by conducting battles in Vyemka and Pereyizne. RF intends to continue offensive operations in the Novopetrovske (Ternove) area despite encountering heavy UAF defenses, indicating persistence in achieving territorial gains. RF intends to leverage foreign military technology developments (Japan's railgun test) for strategic advantage in its military-industrial complex and future warfare planning. (Colonelcassad) RF intends to further control domestic information, as seen by potential restrictions on roaming SIM cards. (ТАСС) RF intends to promote traditional social values through policy proposals like banning contraceptives for married couples. (Новости Москвы) RF intends to exploit ongoing combat in Novoyekonomichne, Donetsk Oblast, to project military progress. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦) RF intends to continue discussions and planning for additional EU sanctions packages. (ТАСС) RF intends to project internal security success (e.g., cocaine interception). (ТАСС) RF intends to use internal social control mechanisms (e.g., fines for 'insulting' words). (Новости Москвы) RF intends to use "gamification" narratives for military actions (БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС) for internal consumption. (Оперативний ЗСУ) RF intends to project military control over UAF logistics around Krasnoarmeysk. (ТАСС) RF intends to strike Ukrainian WPK facilities, as claimed in Pavlohrad. (Военкор Котенок) RF intends to inflict significant UAF casualties in areas like Novoyvanovka. (Воин DV) RF intends to continue propaganda amplifying Western disunity (e.g., Macron). (Kotsnews)
Courses of Action (Confidence: HIGH):
- Ground: Sustained ground offensives on Kupiansk-Lyman, Southern Donetsk (Novoivanovka), Pokrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia (Kamyanske, Plavni) axes, with attempts at localized encirclements and urban combat. Continued use of combined arms, FPV drones, and possibly unconventional infiltration tactics. Counter-DRG operations (e.g., against "Baba Yaga" drones) will continue. The use of a former UAF officer to command the Kupiansk assault suggests an intent to exploit specific knowledge of UAF defenses and vulnerabilities. RF claims of advances near Kucherovka and Petropavlovka in the Kupiansk sector indicate an immediate continuation of localized ground offensives. Concurrently, RF will intensify ground operations in Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, utilizing incendiary munitions and drone support against UAF infantry. RF will push for a rapid breakthrough or envelopment of Yampil, DNR, capitalizing on claimed initial entry. RF will also continue to utilize mine warfare and booby traps, as reported in Zaporizhzhia, to inflict casualties and psychological impact on UAF ground forces. RF SOF units will continue localized operations to destroy UAF militants, as claimed on the Vremevsky direction. RF will continue battles in Vyemka and Pereyizne to encircle Siversk. RF will persist in offensive operations in Novopetrovske (Ternove), utilizing drones and small group infiltration tactics, despite minefields and anti-tank ditches. Localized advances on targets like Novonikolaevka, Malaya Tokmachka, Otradnoye, and in Dnipropetrovsk/Eastern Zaporizhzhia will persist to stretch UAF defenses. Precision MLRS strikes will continue on UAF positions, with a continued willingness to use guided aerial bombs on civilian targets (e.g., Konstantinovka). RF forces from "Zapad-2025" may be redeployed to active combat zones, potentially including the Kyiv axis, as implied by Janus Putkonen. Aggressive recruitment with high financial incentives will be sustained to back these operations. RF will also continue to enhance C2 networks in key offensive areas (e.g., Krasnoarmeysk direction). Putin's statements on over 700k personnel on the line of contact, though possibly inflated, suggest a high readiness to commit manpower. RF Army Aviation (Ka-52m) will continue to provide direct fire support to ground operations in relevant sectors (MoD Russia). RF will continue to leverage controversial recruitment methods (e.g., pardoned criminals, foreign nationals) to sustain manpower for these offensives (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, ТАСС). Cluster Iskander strikes against UAF company tactical groups (Druzhkivka) indicate an ongoing intent to target UAF troop concentrations. Deployment of foreign mercenary personnel (e.g., Cubans) will continue to supplement RF ground forces (Николаевский Ванёк). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming strikes on UAF positions on the Donetsk direction, indicating continued localized ground offensive support. Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming "Akhmat" special forces successfully used a KVN drone to strike a UAF pickup truck with infantry in a wooded area on the Kharkiv direction, claiming "3 dead fighters," directly indicating ground offensive actions supported by precision UAVs. Воин DV posts video detailing renewed artillery strikes and attacks on enemy personnel in the Polozhskoye direction, demonstrating continued offensive operations. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo of a tactical map implying RF claims of significant territorial control or advances in Kupiansk, supporting the likelihood of continued ground offensives. Despite "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reporting a "difficult period," RF ground offensives are likely to continue, with emphasis on using "evacuation" leaflets in Sumy Oblast (Velyka Pysarivka) as a psychological operation possibly preceding or accompanying ground incursions in border regions. Военкор Котенок's report on a deficit of medics suggests RF is facing sustainment strain for prolonged offensives, which could present an opportunity for UAF. The General Staff reports from UAF indicate significant RF ground engagement across multiple axes. RF will intensify counter-DRG operations (e.g., against UAF "Baba Yaga" drone groups on the Dnieper) to protect their positions and logistical routes. RF Wagner Group personnel training Belarusian forces indicates an intent to increase readiness and potentially integrate these forces into future operations. The "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition promotes a narrative of heroism to support ongoing ground operations. The appointment of a former UAF officer to command the Kupiansk offensive suggests a deliberate strategy to leverage insider knowledge for potential breakthroughs. Military police of the Western Group of Forces providing assistance to farmers in LNR (Colonelcassad) indicates continued RF presence and attempts to stabilize occupied territories while freeing up other units for combat. RF will leverage IO (TASS claims) about UAF abandoning NATO weapons to reinforce narratives of UAF tactical setbacks and demoralization. TASS claims of advances at Kucherovka and Petropavlovka are immediate indicators of continued localized ground offensives. The "Два майора" video from Nesterianka, showing intense UAF artillery and drone attacks on RF positions, indicates a high level of reciprocal ground activity. TASS claims of RF SOF destroying UAF militants on the Vremevsky direction indicate continued RF ground operations with specialized units. RF will also continue to utilize mine warfare and booby traps, as reported in Zaporizhzhia, to inflict casualties and psychological impact on UAF ground forces, requiring UAF to commit demining resources. RF will continue to apply pressure in Novoyekonomichne, Donetsk Oblast, as evidenced by ongoing artillery/missile strikes and fires. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦) RF will seek to take full fire control of UAF logistics around Krasnoarmeysk, as claimed by Kimakovsky. (ТАСС) RF will continue to provide air cover for ground assault groups using drones to counter UAF heavy copters. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)
- Aerial: High-volume drone and missile attacks targeting critical infrastructure, particularly energy and railway networks, with a continued willingness to use guided aerial bombs on civilian targets (e.g., Konstantinovka). Expect retaliatory strikes for UAF deep strikes. Continued drone activity towards Pavlohrad, and now, significantly, increased drone threats to Kyiv from Chernihiv and Bryansk Oblasts. The newly reported Shahed launch facility in Bryansk Oblast indicates a potential for increased drone volume and shorter flight times to northern Ukraine. The immediate high-volume drone attack against Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast has just concluded. While the immediate aerial threat to Kyiv has passed, the persistent pattern of high-volume drone and missile attacks dictates that RF will likely launch another large-scale aerial campaign within 24-48 hours, targeting critical infrastructure across Ukraine, potentially including Kyiv again. RF will continue FPV drone operations, including anti-UAV missions, in contested airspace. RF will continue targeted drone attacks on cities like Pavlohrad, likely to degrade air defenses and disrupt logistical hubs. RF will continue to project air defense successes over annexed territories, such as Crimea, to reassure its population and demonstrate control. RF will continue aerial attacks causing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, as seen in the latest reports. RF will seek to disrupt payment systems in Kyiv public transport through aerial attacks. RF will deploy new Pantsir-SMD SAM systems to enhance its air defense, particularly against UAF drones and missiles, and potentially in forward combat zones. RF will conduct drone reconnaissance and surveillance missions, as observed with the "Rubikon" (Lekka-100) drone, particularly over agricultural areas. RF will continue to launch drone strikes into Belgorod Oblast, risking civilian casualties, potentially as a retaliatory measure or to assert control over border regions. RF will continue to launch multi-directional drone attacks in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, as indicated by recent UAF Air Force warnings. RF will continue to target Ukrainian military-industrial complex (WPK) sites, as claimed in Pavlohrad. (Военкор Котенок)
- Hybrid/IO: Intensified disinformation campaigns focusing on UAF disorganization, corruption, and internal divisions (e.g., the alleged GUR vs. President's Office conflict, the former UAF brigadier general commanding the Kupiansk assault). Amplification of RF internal security successes and alleged UAF atrocities. Leveraging any Western political statements or domestic issues to sow discord. RF will actively attempt to discredit UAF external support by claiming internal corruption or illicit dealings (e.g., Rostec servicing UAF helicopters). They will continue to challenge international legal decisions (e.g., MH17) to undermine international consensus against them. RF will leverage high-level personnel changes (Kozak's dismissal) to project an image of effective governance and adapt its internal narratives. RF IO will continue to monitor and leverage international political statements (e.g., Trump's comments on TikTok, China, and ceasefire, Taiwan aid) to shape global perceptions. RF will also leverage internal economic news (e.g., budget forecasts) to project stability, and portray Western economies as facing crisis (e.g., Business Insider report). The "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition is an ongoing IO effort to reinforce patriotism and military heroism. RF IO will continue to promote the rehabilitation of historical figures like Stalin to unify narratives. RF will use ambiguous or pre-emptive messaging (e.g., "Timely Terrorist Attack" video) to create confusion or prepare for false flag operations. RF will continue to attempt to distract from the conflict by promoting narratives of normalcy within Russia (e.g., iPhone launch, S7 uniforms). RF will amplify any Western statements (e.g., Trump's "no ceasefire" stance) that appear to align with RF's position of strength. RF will also use external geopolitical developments (e.g., Turkey's interest in BRICS/ASEAN) to project a shifting global alignment away from Western dominance. RF IO is attempting to create alternative narratives (e.g., "boat with 60 drug addicts" by Рыбарь) to distract or misdirect from current events, potentially attempting to counter UAF successes or deflect from RF military actions. RF diplomatic channels are open for discussion with the US regarding diplomatic missions, implying an intention to maintain low-level communication despite military conflict. RF IO will continue to promote narratives of international support for Russia (IAEA abstentions) and portray Western intelligence as aggressive (MI6 darknet portal). RF IO will proactively promote social welfare initiatives (e.g., increased maternity capital) to project state care and domestic stability, aiming to bolster public trust and support for the government and its policies, including the war effort. RF IO will also promote internal narratives regarding military and civilian salary disparities, portraying UAF personnel as potentially exploited or facing significant psychological tolls (Операция Z message). RF will continue to undermine international support for Ukraine, as seen in the TASS claim of UAF abandoning NATO weapons in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Roskomnadzor's actions to block fraudulent SIM cards will be leveraged by RF IO to project effective internal security and control over digital communications. RF IO will intensify narratives around internal security and "terrorism," leveraging cases like the General Kirillov murder to justify state actions and portray Ukraine as a source of instability. RF IO will actively use statements from figures like Vodolatsky to shape narratives about the conflict's duration and resolution, specifically linking it to Western political developments (e.g., US elections) to manage expectations and maintain domestic support for a protracted conflict. RF will continue its legal challenges against international decisions (MH17 appeal) to undermine international consensus and deny accountability. Colonelcassad's video showcasing China's robot dog firing an RPG, while not RF action, presents a powerful visual that RF IO could leverage to promote the idea of rapid technological advancement by its allies or potential future threats to UAF, serving as psychological warfare. RF IO will leverage Trump's alleged refusal of military aid to Taiwan for a deal with China to highlight perceived US geopolitical shifts and potential weakening of US alliances (РБК-Україна). ТАСС's video on the captured Croatian citizen from UAF will be extensively used for IO, focusing on foreign national involvement and UAF disorganization. Рыбарь posts a daily situation summary, "Chronicle of the SMO for September 18," indicating continued structured RF information dissemination.
UAF Narratives: Emphasis on repelling RF assaults, successful deep strikes (Salavat refinery, Buk-M2), and the capture of RF personnel (425th Regiment "Skelya", "STRIKS" unit successes, border guard strikes, SBU agent detention, Kharkiv spotter detention, 35th Combined Arms Army casualties list) reinforces UAF's fighting capability and resolve. Zelenskyy's report of successful counter-offensive in Donetsk Oblast, including liberated territory and significant RF casualties, is a major boost to this narrative. The active public fundraising for advanced FPV drones ("best drones to work with") is a key part of this narrative. Reconnaissance personnel are highlighted as key to victory. The destroyed Poltava monument helicopter also serves as a symbol of resilience. UAF artillery displaying adaptability and continuous operation also reinforces this. President Zelenskyy's direct engagement with frontline units in Donetsk Oblast and the 82nd Air Assault Brigade command post further supports this narrative. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts reinforcing soldier morale. The 1st Assault Regiment's success near Dobropillya reinforces this. President Zelenskyy meeting with 79th Air Assault Brigade soldiers directly supports the narrative of resilience and success, highlighting specific unit involvement in current operations. The arrival of US PURL weapons is a strong narrative for continued international support and UAF capabilities. The Presidential Brigade of UAF posts a video showcasing night combat operations, emphasizing vigilance and effectiveness. Dnipropetrovsk ODA Head visiting emergency medical services championship highlights preparedness and resilience in the face of attacks. Zaporizhzhia ODA posts about evacuating young footballers, highlighting humanitarian efforts amidst conflict. "Підрозділ Shadow" posts video of successful drone strikes on RF shelters, reinforcing UAF precision strike capabilities. "БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС" posts video of the UAF 1st Assault Battalion holding its front line in Zaporizhzhia and destroying enemy forces with FPV drones, confirming UAF effectiveness and morale. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts video of the "STRIKS" unit's FPV drone successes on the Southern Slobozhansky direction, further confirming advanced tactical drone integration. Олександр Вілкул posts a briefing detailing the transfer of 10 DJI Matrice 4T quadcopters to the 77th Airmobile Brigade. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a photo message featuring a drone with the caption "Дальність? Вітер? Борт заармовано?" (Range? Wind? Board armed?), indicating UAF's technical focus on drone operations. The "VARTOVI" unmanned systems battalion and 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" are actively demonstrating effective drone operations. Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement about Ukraine using 1000 interceptor drones daily indicates an immediate and significant scaling of UAF counter-UAV capabilities. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts multiple photo messages showcasing a tactical screen with telemetry data. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement that Ukraine will use 1000 interceptor drones per day in the near future, indicating a strategic shift towards large-scale counter-UAV operations. Ukraine is producing 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month and aims for 7 missiles daily by year-end, which will be leveraged to project growing domestic defense capabilities. Documenting casualties (Konstantinovka КАБ strike killing 5 civilians), damage to civilian infrastructure (Nizhyn, Zaporizhzhia), and war crimes allegations (exhumation videos, Donetsk displacement photos) aims to highlight RF atrocities and maintain international support. The opening of a memorial alley in Zaporizhzhia directly reinforces the narrative of sacrifice and remembrance. Demining efforts highlight UAF efforts to protect civilians. Dnipropetrovsk ODA reporting КАБ and drone strikes on civilian communities highlights RF aggression and humanitarian impact. Renewed air alerts in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast are implicitly used to highlight ongoing RF aggression against civilian areas. Reports on investigations into TCC officials and high-level fraud, recent corruption busts in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the investigation into a pro-Russian judge, the detention of Novinsky (RPC curator), and the uncovering of an organized gambling network in Kyiv demonstrate commitment to transparency and good governance. Prosecution of an FSB officer for war crimes. Life sentence for an FSB officer who brutally treated civilians in Kherson Oblast demonstrates accountability for war crimes. Exposure of a human trafficking ring led by a PRC citizen. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the conviction of a "Rashist" who oversaw the "Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation" during the occupation of Kherson, which serves to project UAF's commitment to justice and accountability. Zelenskyy's statements confirming successful operations on RF territory and the impact on the RF fuel sector highlight UAF's growing asymmetrical capabilities. Highlighting security cooperation agreements with partners like Greece and the new drone cooperation agreement with Poland, including a joint operational group. New military aid from Ireland. Poland checking bomb shelters also indirectly signals allied seriousness about RF threats. РБК-Україна reporting Starmer's commitment to help Ukraine with Trump (photo message) promotes this. Trump's statements about "Putin letting him down" and hopes for "good news" on the Ukraine settlement are being used by UAF IO to highlight potential divisions in the West's perception of Putin's actions and a desire for peace on Ukraine's terms. Confirmation of US PURL weapons arrival is a strong narrative for continued international support and UAF capabilities. Operatyvny ZSU also reports the first US PURL weapon delivery. An EU Ambassador emphasizing the need for energy reforms in Ukraine (РБК-Україна) highlights continued international interest and support for Ukraine's long-term stability. UAF IO material depicting soldiers in combat and sacrifice, often leveraging emotional elements like a fallen soldier with a cat, reinforces patriotic narratives. Training initiatives for national resistance also foster patriotism. The Military Ombudsman law emphasizes caring for service members. The Coordination Headquarters provides critical support for families of POWs/MIA, bolstering morale. Active reporting on the return of bodies of fallen servicemen demonstrates transparency and care for personnel. Report on no elections in 2026 implies UAF IO to justify wartime measures. Appointment of Tetyana Chornovol as people's deputy highlights democratic processes. РБК-Україна posts a photo message featuring an analytical piece titled "War, Ukraine, the world. What to pay attention to today," which frames ongoing events from a Ukrainian perspective. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the EU will accelerate its rejection of Russian LNG due to pressure from Trump, positioning this as a positive outcome for Ukraine. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video with an inflammatory caption against the "second army," displaying strong anti-RF sentiment and bolstering UAF morale and resolve. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a video compilation documenting over 1300 combat engagements in the last seven days, with nearly a third on the Pokrovsk direction. РБК-Україна posts a photo message stating Zelenskyy invited Qatar to a summit in New York regarding the return of Ukrainian children, highlighting humanitarian diplomacy. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo message detailing the exposure of heads of military medical commissions in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts for bribery, promoting transparency and anti-corruption efforts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo message announcing the opening of a mental health center in Ternopil for military personnel and veterans, emphasizing support for service members. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts drone footage of Mykolaiv marines (VARTOVI battalion) successfully striking Russian vehicles, artillery, and infantry, demonstrating UAF effectiveness and boosting morale. "БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС" posts drone footage of the 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" destroying eight Russian assault troops on the Pokrovsk direction, further reinforcing the narrative of successful UAF operations and precision. "РБК-Україна" refutes claims of a "data leak" from e-Notariat, serving to reassure the public about data security and counter RF disinformation. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports RF is distributing "evacuation" leaflets in Velyka Pysarivka, Sumy Oblast, which UAF IO can frame as a sign of RF desperation or fear of UAF counter-action. "Оперативний ЗСУ" crowdfunding for the Pokrovsk direction highlights continued public support. "Colonelcassad" posts an image claiming Russian forces destroyed "Georgian mercenary Yura Kalandarishvili," which RF IO will use to discredit foreign fighters and claim successes against NATO-aligned personnel, but UAF IO can use it to highlight the international nature of the conflict and RF's willingness to target foreign fighters. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a humorous video with "victory music," likely a morale-boosting effort. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that a former Ukrainian brigadier general who betrayed Ukraine in 2014 is commanding the assault on Kupiansk, a narrative highlighting internal betrayal which UAF IO can use to emphasize the enemy's reliance on such figures. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна reporting on the "Gerbera" UAV fragment found on a Latvian beach highlights RF external aggression. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement about 1000 interceptor drones daily, boosting morale by projecting a strong, adaptive, and technologically advanced defense. UAF IO will likely frame the EU's accelerated rejection of Russian LNG (Bloomberg) as a victory for international pressure and a sign of weakening Russian economic power. UAF IO will counter RF amplification of Trump's "no ceasefire" statement by highlighting it as evidence that international leaders recognize Putin's unwillingness to genuinely negotiate, reinforcing UAF's resolve to continue fighting. РБК-Україна highlights Poland conducting large-scale checks of bomb shelters, framing it within the context of European readiness to RF threats. РБК-Україна shares a video of Donald Trump suggesting Europe taking action against China could accelerate the end of the war in Ukraine, which UAF IO will likely monitor for opportunities to reinforce narratives of international pressure on RF. Оперативний ЗСУ posts messages regarding Russia's challenge to the ICAO decision on MH17, framing it as Russia attempting to evade responsibility. РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Pavlohrad, and Николаевский Ванёк reports successful downing of drones. These immediate reports from UAF-aligned channels serve as direct IO reinforcing UAF's active defense and effectiveness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting that Ukraine produces 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month, aiming for 7 daily by year-end, which will be leveraged to project growing domestic defense capabilities. The UAF Air Force (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) reporting 20+ Shaheds from Chernihiv to Kyiv is a direct and immediate UAF IO response highlighting ongoing RF threats and UAF defensive vigilance. The Air Force of Ukraine (Повітряні Сили ЗС України) report on a group of UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast also serves as a critical, immediate UAF IO communication. РБК-Україна posts a video message reporting RF has recently built a new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast, 35 km from the Ukrainian border, attributed to OSINT-analyst Brady Africk. РБК-Україна also posts a tactical analysis of a satellite image of the Bryansk Oblast launch site. This new site likely implies an increased and more direct drone threat to northern Ukraine, particularly Kyiv and Sumy Oblasts. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posted a video claiming to show aerial combat on the Zaporizhzhia front, displaying FPV drone footage, telemetry data, and what appears to be a Ukrainian drone targeting Russian equipment. This visual confirmation reinforces UAF's active and successful use of drones in combat.

NEW INTELLIGENCE:

Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast (RF Claim): "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming the 1009th regiment destroyed UAF infantry in Volchansk. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (UAF Report): "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports on the consequences of enemy night attacks on Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (UAF Report): "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" reports a 74-year-old man was injured due to an enemy attack on the Stepnohirsk community. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Kyiv (UAF Report): "РБК-Україна" and "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" report possible disruptions to card payments and ticket validation on high-speed trams and funiculars in Kyiv due to the night shelling. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Netherlands Refugee Policy: РБК-Україна reports that the Netherlands is considering excluding Ukrainian male refugees from the housing system. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Bornholm (RF Allegation): ТАСС reports Russian Ambassador to Denmark, Vladimir Barbin, claimed Bornholm Island is used by Copenhagen to create security threats to Russia, particularly Kaliningrad Oblast. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Yampil, DNR (RF Claim): ТАСС reports Marochko claimed RF Army broke through UAF defenses and entered Yampil in DNR. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Nesterianka (RF Claims): "Два майора" posts video claiming UAF "radio-controlled kamikaze drones, fiber-optic attack UAVs, artillery shelling, and tank fire" on RF positions in Nesterianka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
RF Casualties: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports an additional 1150 personnel neutralized in the last 24 hours. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)
IAEA Resolution: РБК-Україна (UAF source) reports the IAEA General Conference adopted a resolution calling on Russia to return control of the Zaporizhzhia NPP to Ukraine. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Kryvyi Rih Situation: Олександр Вілкул (UAF source) reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of the morning of 19.09.25. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF Fundraising: "STERNENKO" reports collecting an additional 8 million UAH for the UAF yesterday. (FACT, UAF REPORT) NEW: STERNENKO further posts an image indicating more coffee/donations are "flying" to cut down "Russians." (FACT, UAF REPORT)
EU LNG Policy: "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports Bloomberg's statement that the EU plans to reject Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) as quickly as possible. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF Deep Strike (Kursk Oblast): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) posts video claiming SSO struck a logistics hub of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade (OBRMPS) in Kursk Oblast. (FACT, UAF CLAIM) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS corroborates this with video evidence of the strike, showing an industrial or military complex. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)
Kyiv Memorial: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts photo messages commemorating fallen defenders from Kyiv. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Minute of Silence (UAF): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ, and Офіс Генерального прокурора post messages commemorating a nationwide minute of silence for fallen soldiers. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Nationalization: Север.Реалии reports the nationalization of the "Музыка" publishing house in Russia. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Vehicle Discounts: ТАСС reports Russian car dealers are reducing discounts on 2024 models due to reduced stock. (FACT, RF REPORT)
STERNENKO Assessment: STERNENKO posts an "IMMEDIATE ASSESSMENT" with no additional text, indicating continued public engagement and commentary. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (RF Gamification Claim): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video featuring Igor Kimakovsky, advisor to the head of the DNR, discussing a "scoring system" for military actions, suggesting a "gamification of war." (FACT, RF IO via UAF-aligned source)
PNV (RF Source): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts photo messages captioned "Про 4-х глазый ПНВ!", referring to 4-eyed night vision devices, likely highlighting RF special forces equipment. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Trump-Xi Jinping Call (UAF Report): РБК-Україна reports Trump and Xi Jinping are scheduled to hold a phone call today, discussing unspecified topics. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF FPV Interceptors: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts a video showcasing the "most effective FPV interceptor pilot" of the 71st Separate Jaeger Brigade of the Air Assault Forces (DSHV), highlighting their role in reconnaissance and striking enemy equipment. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Internal UAF Corruption: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the detention in Dnipro of a former military unit commander who allegedly organized a "profitable scheme for desertion." (FACT, UAF REPORT)
POW/MIA Family Meeting: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) reports a meeting with families of captured and missing defenders from various brigades. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Information Control (Roaming Scammers): ТАСС reports Roskomnadzor is considering partial restrictions on Russian SIM cards in roaming due to scammers calling from them. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Social Policy (Contraceptives): Новости Москвы reports a proposal in Russia to ban contraceptives for married couples. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Siversk Offensive (Rybar Analysis): Два майора posts a video analyzing Rybar's tactical map, indicating RF forces advancing around Serebryanka and Novoyelivka, aiming to consolidate positions and potentially encircle Ukrainian strongholds north of Serebryanka, specifically in an "offensive bypassing Siversk." (FACT, RF REPORT)
Kherson Region (UAF Civilian Presence): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video of a man in military attire in a watermelon field in Vinogradova, Kherson region, with the caption "My field - my watermelons!" (FACT, UAF-aligned report, suggests UAF presence in civilian-populated areas of Kherson).
UAF Naval Operations (Tendra Spit): РБК-Україна posts video claiming GUR special forces landed on Tendra Spit and ambushed RF forces, destroying a landing craft. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Kupiansk/Lyman POWs (UAF Claim): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming soldiers of the 425th Regiment "Skelya" captured 17 POWs in a week on the Pokrovsk and Lyman directions. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)
Southern Front Civilian Shelling: Сили оборони Півдня України (UAF source) reports RF conducted 7 shellings on 6 settlements in the Southern operational zone yesterday, affecting civilians. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Southern Front Shahed Interceptions: Сили оборони Півдня України (UAF source) reports 3 Shahed-136/131 UAVs were destroyed in the Southern operational zone yesterday. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Kitchen Knives (Propaganda): Старше Эдды posts a video promoting "kitchen knife sets," a civilian normalcy propaganda piece. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Orikhiv Anniversary (UAF Civilian): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts photos celebrating Orikhiv's 250th anniversary. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF Morale (Chaplain): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts video about a priest choosing the front line over "capital calm," highlighting RF spiritual support/morale. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Narcotics Interception: ТАСС reports FSB and FTS thwarted cocaine smuggling (1750 kg, 20 billion rubles). (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Civilian Messaging (Fines): Новости Москвы posts a photo message about fines for "insulting with the word 'vegetable'", suggesting internal social controls. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Krasnoarmeysk Logistics Fire Control (RF Claim): ТАСС reports Kimakovsky claimed RF forces took full fire control of all UAF logistics around Krasnoarmeysk. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Pavlohrad WPK Hit (RF Claim): Военкор Котенок reports "enemy resources" confirm an ammunition depot and chemical enterprise (part of Ukrainian WPK) were hit in Pavlohrad overnight. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
Zelenskyy US Drone/Weapon Proposals (UAF Report): РБК-Україна posts photos and caption indicating Zelenskyy made large-scale drone and weapon proposals to the USA. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Moscow Traffic Lights (Civilian): Новости Москвы posts a photo message about testing traffic lights with contour lighting in Moscow. (FACT, RF REPORT)
Novoyvanovka Fatalities (RF Source): Воин DV posts graphic images (21+) claiming Ukrainian servicemen defending Novoyvanovka made the "wrong choice," implying significant UAF casualties. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
RF Internal Politics (Utlisbor): Басурин о главном discusses "Utlisbor" (recycling fee) and who profits, indicating internal Russian economic discussions. (FACT, RF REPORT)
RF Propaganda (Macron): Kotsnews reports on "disagreements of allies and justifications of Macrons," indicating RF IO amplifying Western disunity. (FACT, RF REPORT)
UAF Body Repatriation (UAF Report): Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts videos and photos stating 1000 bodies, confirmed as Ukrainians by "Rashists," were returned to Ukraine. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
RF "Gamification of War" (IO): Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video featuring Igor Kimakovsky discussing a "scoring system" for military actions, framed as RF "gamification of war." (FACT, UAF-aligned IO)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (Confidence: HIGH):

UAF maintains a generally defensive posture but is capable of localized counter-offensives (e.g., Pankivka, Zarichne, Dobropillya-Pokrovsk sector, Tendra Spit naval operation). Readiness is high across key axes, demonstrated by repelling numerous RF assaults. Units like the 77th Airmobile Brigade, 6th Azov Battalion, 1st Assault Regiment, "Shadow" unit, STRIKS unit, Mykolaiv marines' "VARTOVI" battalion, 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds", and GUR special forces on Tendra Spit are actively engaged and demonstrating effectiveness.
UAF is actively integrating tactical drones (FPV, thermal) for ISR, precision strikes, and night operations, with a significant scale-up anticipated (1000 interceptor drones daily). Ukraine is also increasing domestic missile production, with 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month, aiming for 7 daily.
Personnel mobilization and welfare are ongoing priorities, with efforts to combat corruption within the TCC system and support for POW/MIA families and mental health services.
Strategic deep strike capability has been demonstrated against the Salavat petrochemical complex, extending UAF's operational reach.
UAF maintains vigilance against RF's international legal maneuvers, as evidenced by monitoring Russia's challenge to the MH17 decision.
UAF Air Defense is actively engaged in defending Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast against an ongoing RF drone attack, demonstrating high readiness and effectiveness. UAF Air Defense successfully repelled the recent drone attack on Kyiv, neutralizing incoming UAVs, as confirmed by all-clear reports and preliminary damage assessments (ASTRA, КМВА, РБК-Україна). This demonstrates sustained high readiness and effective tactical control.
High-level diplomatic engagement with NATO, as evidenced by the meeting between Rustem Umierov and Patrick Turner, confirms a robust commitment to securing Ukraine's long-term security guarantees and integration into Western defense structures.
Kryvyi Rih Situation: Олександр Вілкул (UAF source) reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of the morning of 19.09.25. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Pavlohrad Drone Attack: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (UAF source) reports RF massively attacked Pavlohrad with drones overnight. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
General Staff Update (UAF Report): "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" provides operational information as of 08:00, 19.09.25, stating UAF repelled 10 enemy assaults in the Southern Slobozhansky direction (Staromayorske district), 8 in the Orikhiv direction (Robotyne, Verkhnya Tersa, Novodanylivka, Stepnohirska communities), and 1 in the Kherson direction (Krynyk). UAF confirmed 70 combat engagements over the past day. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF Fundraising: "STERNENKO" reports collecting an additional 8 million UAH for the UAF yesterday. (FACT, UAF REPORT) NEW: STERNENKO further posts an image indicating more coffee/donations are "flying" to cut down "Russians." (FACT, UAF REPORT)
IAEA Resolution: РБК-Україна (UAF source) reports the IAEA General Conference adopted a resolution calling on Russia to return control of the Zaporizhzhia NPP to Ukraine. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
EU LNG Policy: "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports Bloomberg's statement that the EU plans to reject Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) as quickly as possible. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF Deep Strike (Kursk Oblast): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) posts video claiming SSO struck a logistics hub of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade (OBRMPS) in Kursk Oblast. (FACT, UAF CLAIM) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS corroborates this with video evidence of the strike, showing an industrial or military complex. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)
Kyiv Drone Debris (UAF Report): Оперативний ЗСУ reports an unexploded enemy UAV was found in Shevchenkivskyi district, Kyiv, with specialists working on site, indicating successful interception of some UAVs. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Public Commemoration (UAF): КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ, and Офіс Генерального прокурора all observe a minute of silence and commemorate fallen defenders, indicating strong public and institutional support for the military. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
UAF FPV Interceptors: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts a video showcasing the "most effective FPV interceptor pilot" of the 71st Separate Jaeger Brigade of the Air Assault Forces (DSHV), highlighting their role in reconnaissance and striking enemy equipment. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Internal UAF Corruption: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the detention in Dnipro of a former military unit commander who allegedly organized a "profitable scheme for desertion." (FACT, UAF REPORT)
POW/MIA Family Meeting: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) reports a meeting with families of captured and missing defenders from various brigades. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Civilian Presence in Kherson Region: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video of a man in military attire in a watermelon field in Vinogradova, Kherson region, with the caption "My field - my watermelons!" (FACT, UAF-aligned report, suggests UAF presence in civilian-populated areas of Kherson and maintenance of civilian life amidst conflict).
UAF Body Repatriation (UAF Report): Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts videos and photos stating 1000 bodies, confirmed as Ukrainians by "Rashists," were returned to Ukraine. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
Zelenskyy US Drone/Weapon Proposals (UAF Report): РБК-Україна posts photos and caption indicating Zelenskyy made large-scale drone and weapon proposals to the USA. (FACT, UAF REPORT)

Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

Successes:
- Successful UAF counter-offensive in the Dobropillya-Pokrovsk area, liberating 160 sq km and 7 settlements, and inflicting significant RF casualties (100 POWs, 2500+ casualties).
- Successful deep strike on the Salavat petrochemical complex in Bashkortostan.
- Successful defense against RF "pincer" maneuver near Dobropillya by the 1st Assault Regiment.
- Repelling numerous RF assaults on Kramatorsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Kherson, Kursk, and North Slobozhansky directions. UAF General Staff reports repelling 10 enemy assaults in the Southern Slobozhansky direction, 8 in the Orikhiv direction, and 1 in the Kherson direction.
- Destruction of an RF Buk-M2 SAM system by the 15th Separate Artillery Reconnaissance Brigade "Black Forest."
- Successful FPV drone strikes by various units (Azov, Shadow, STRIKS, 1st Assault Battalion, Mykolaiv marines, 414th UAV Brigade) on RF personnel, positions, and equipment. The new Операция Z video from Zaporizhzhia showcasing UAF drone strikes on RF equipment reinforces this. The "Два майора" video, while posted by RF, visually confirms intense UAF artillery and drone activity against RF positions in Nesterianka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating effective UAF localized offensive/defensive capabilities.
- Successful internal security operations: detention of Novinsky (RPC curator), SBU detention of RF agent, exposure of corruption in military medical commissions. NEW: Detention of a former military unit commander in Dnipro for organizing desertion schemes.
- Confirmation of first US PURL weapons delivery.
- Successful body exchange, returning 1000 fallen servicemen. NEW: An additional 1000 bodies of Ukrainians were returned.
- Successful air defense against drone attacks on Pavlohrad. NEW: 3 Shahed UAVs destroyed in the Southern operational zone.
- Increased domestic missile production of "Flamingo" missiles.
- Continued high-level engagement with NATO on security guarantees.
- UAF Air Defense successfully neutralized the latest RF drone attack on Kyiv, with preliminary reports indicating all incoming UAVs were shot down. Damage to the trolleybus network in Shevchenkivskyi district was caused by falling debris from a downed UAV (ASTRA). This represents a tactical success in defending the capital from direct drone impacts. A UAV was shot down over Kyiv overnight, with debris falling in multiple locations, as confirmed by KMVA, indicating continued effective air defense. UAF reported neutralizing an additional 1150 RF personnel in the last 24 hours. UAF successfully shot down 71 of 86 RF UAVs launched overnight, with 48 previously reported, meaning 23 new successful interceptions, maintaining a high interception rate. UAF secured an IAEA resolution calling for RF to return control of the Zaporizhzhia NPP. Kryvyi Rih remains controlled by UAF forces. UAF secured 8 million UAH in donations, demonstrating strong public support. The EU's planned rejection of Russian LNG is a diplomatic success for Ukraine. UAF SSO conducted a successful deep strike against an RF logistics hub in Kursk Oblast. Discovery of an unexploded UAV in Kyiv's Shevchenkivskyi district indicates successful interception and prevention of detonation. UAF FPV interceptor pilots (71st Separate Jaeger Brigade) are proving effective in reconnaissance and striking enemy targets.
- Civilian resilience in Kherson region demonstrated by agricultural activity amidst conflict.
- UAF GUR naval operation on Tendra Spit, destroying an RF landing craft.
- 425th Regiment "Skelya" captured 17 POWs on Pokrovsk and Lyman directions.
Setbacks:
- Sustained heavy RF pressure on multiple axes (Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia), forcing UAF to commit new groups. UAF General Staff reports 70 combat engagements over the past day, indicating continued heavy pressure.
- Lethal RF guided aerial bomb strike on Konstantinovka residential area (5 killed, 19 injured), and drone strikes on civilian infrastructure across multiple oblasts. RF aerial attacks on Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, including injury to a 74-year-old in Stepnohirsk and disruptions in Kyiv public transport payment systems, represent continued setbacks for civilian protection and infrastructure.
- Ongoing issues with corruption in mobilization system (military medical commissions). NEW: Internal UAF corruption, as evidenced by the detention of a former military commander in Dnipro for desertion schemes.
- Russian forces reportedly entering and consolidating in residential areas of Kupiansk (Deep State amplified by RF).
- Reports of an RF FPV drone and artillery strike destroying a UAF M109A5 howitzer near Konstantinovka (Colonelcassad).
- Reports of RF ground activity by "CENTER" and "VOSTOK" groups in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Воин DV).
- Continued heavy RF aerial activity, including threats to Kyiv from Chernihiv and potentially the newly identified Bryansk launch site. Damage to the trolleybus network in Shevchenkivskyi district due to falling drone debris can be considered a minor localized setback, indicating that while direct impacts were averted, the defensive actions themselves can cause collateral damage.
- RF claims (unverified) of UAF forces abandoning NATO weapons in Zaporizhzhia Oblast during retreat, if true, would represent a tactical setback in terms of equipment retention and troop morale. TASS claims RF forces advanced near Kucherovka and Petropavlovka, clearing a tree line and destroying a UAF fortified area, which, if verified, would represent a localized setback for UAF in the Kupiansk sector. The RF claim of entering Yampil, DNR, if verified, represents a significant localized territorial setback. RF's mine warfare tactics in Zaporizhzhia Oblast pose a persistent threat to UAF assault teams. RF successfully conducted a mass drone attack on Pavlohrad. RF ground forces using incendiary munitions against UAF infantry in Volchansk poses a significant tactical challenge and risk of further casualties. RF SOF operations on the Vremevsky direction also pose a threat to UAF personnel. RF drone strikes resulted in two injuries in Belgorod Oblast. RF claims of intense fighting in Vyemka and Pereyizne, and encirclement of Siversk, pose a potential significant setback if true. RF claims of liberating Novopetrovske (Ternove) indicate localized territorial losses for UAF, if verified. UAF air defense successfully mitigated a significant portion of the RF drone attack, but 15 UAVs still penetrated, indicating some vulnerability, and a new group of drones is airborne. (РБК-Україна) An attack on a Russian radar station in annexed Crimea, injuring two servicemen, while a success for UAF, resulted in injuries to RF personnel, which can be seen as a setback for RF, not UAF. (ASTRA)
- Explosion in Chernihiv. (РБК-Україна)
- 7 shellings by RF on civilian settlements in the Southern operational zone. (Сили оборони Півдня України)
- UAF casualties implied by graphic images from Novoyvanovka (Воин DV).
- RF claims of full fire control over UAF logistics around Krasnoarmeysk (ТАСС), if verified, would significantly hamper UAF operations.
- RF claims of hitting WPK targets in Pavlohrad (Военкор Котенок), if verified, would represent a significant setback for Ukrainian defense industry.
Resource Requirements and Constraints:
- Requirements: Continued air defense assets (especially counter-UAV and anti-glide bomb capabilities), advanced ISR platforms, FPV drones, artillery ammunition, and medical supplies (given reported RF medical deficit). Sustainment of international military and financial aid, including Javelin missiles for Poland, which indirectly strengthens NATO's eastern flank. Continued increase in domestic missile production. Proactive proposals to the US for drone and weapon agreements (Zelenskyy).
- Constraints: High operational tempo and persistent RF aerial attacks place a strain on air defense resources. Manpower constraints necessitate efficient recruitment and retention strategies. The ongoing threat of cyberattacks demands robust cyber defense. The reported corruption in military medical commissions highlights a constraint on effective personnel mobilization. The ongoing drone attack on Kyiv underscores the continuous high demand for air defense munitions and operational capacity, potentially constraining resources for other sectors. The need for rapid damage assessment and repair of urban infrastructure (e.g., trolleybus network, Kyiv public transport payment systems) following drone attacks adds a minor but ongoing constraint on civilian resources and potentially sums some military-technical support. RF's mine warfare tactics further constrain UAF movement and require specialized demining resources. The detention of a former military commander for desertion schemes indicates ongoing internal challenges in maintaining military discipline and strength. (Офіс Генерального прокурора) The ongoing need for meetings with POW/MIA families highlights the continuing human cost and the significant demand for support services. (Координаційний штаб) The Netherlands' potential exclusion of Ukrainian male refugees from housing could impact future mobilization efforts and place an additional burden on social support systems within Ukraine. (РБК-Україна)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (Confidence: HIGH):

RF Narratives: RF is actively attempting to discredit UAF's counter-offensive success in Donetsk, downplay its own losses, and amplify any perceived UAF setbacks or disorganization. They are aggressively using the Konstantinovka civilian casualties and the 1000:24 body exchange ratio (highly exaggerated) to paint a picture of UAF failure and RF military prowess. RF IO is leveraging Trump's statements to sow confusion and portray Western disunity on Ukraine support, particularly his "Putin let me down" and "terrible relations between Putin and Zelenskyy" comments. They are attempting to link rising antisemitism in Europe to broader societal decay (Flensburg incident) to deflect from their own actions. RF is also using narratives of internal RF stability and normalcy (Kamchatka earthquake, civilian fundraising efforts for armor) to mask the impact of the war. They actively promote their military technology and manpower

Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current operational picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (Confidence: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (Confidence: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (Confidence: HIGH)

1.4. Information Environment (Cognitive domain)

1.4. Information Environment (Cognitive domain)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)