Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 190600Z SEP 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current operational picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (Confidence: HIGH)

RF forces maintain multi-axis pressure across the Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia axes, with heavy reciprocal battles in Sumy Oblast. RF claims unverified advances in Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, and occupation of the medical college area in Kupiansk, with military control and fortifications on the Velikoburlukskoye direction. RF claims a 5km advance on the Gulyaipole direction, entering Novoivanivka, and new positions south of Novoivanivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF claims full control of Serebryansky forestry, representing a significant territorial gain on the Lyman direction, if verified. RF claims UAF "complains" about RF advances in Kupiansk, with RF sources amplifying reports of "chaos and disorganization" and a "failed defense." RF footage displays dynamic combat engagements in a forest environment, explosions, and smoke. Kotsnews posts video claiming "liberation of Novonikolaevka" with Russian assault troops detailing mine clearing. Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming soldiers of the 270th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Akhmat-Caucasus" destroyed enemy positions in Malaya Tokmachka area. ТАСС posts video claiming Tornado-S MLRS crews destroyed three temporary deployment points of a UAF brigade in Konstantinovka. Colonelcassad reports a cluster Iskander strike on a UAF company tactical group near Druzhkivka. Воин DV posts video detailing renewed artillery strikes and attacks on enemy personnel in the Polozhskoye direction by the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo message showing a tactical map of a contested area, suggesting ongoing ground combat and RF claims of UAF setbacks in Kupiansk. Colonelcassad posts video claiming successful FPV drone and artillery strikes by RF's 3rd Army Corps on a UAF 155mm M109A5 self-propelled howitzer near Konstantinovka, implying continued RF precision targeting of UAF heavy artillery. Воин DV posts a video claiming "hunting" by RF "CENTER" and "VOSTOK" groups in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with drone footage showing military vehicles and explosions, suggesting continued RF ground activity and pressure in this region. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports over 80 combat engagements in the last 24 hours. The Kramatorsk direction saw 15 RF assaults near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Mykolayivka, Stupochky, Bila Hora, and Andriivka, with UAF repelling 12. The Pokrovsk direction remains the hottest, with 28 assaults near Volodymyrivka, Zapovidne, Novoekonomichne, Shevchenko, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne, Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Vilne, Chervonyi Lyman, Myrnohrad, Rodynske, Promin, Zvirove, Molodetske, Novopidhorodne, Novopavlivka, and Filiya, with 20 repelled. On the Novopavlivka direction, 26 assaults were near Yalta, Shevchenko, Komyshuvakha, Vorone, Ternove, Novoivanivka, Filiya, Ivanivka, Iskra, Sichneve, Olhivske, and Poltavka, with 21 repelled. On the Orikhiv direction, 7 assaults occurred near Kamyanske and towards Novodanylivka, with 6 repelled. On the Kherson direction, UAF repelled 4 Russian army assaults. On the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions, UAF repelled 7 Russian army assaults. This indicates sustained and heavy RF pressure across all key axes, particularly Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka. UAF has confirmed the liberation of Pankivka, Donetsk Oblast, and Zarichne. UAF reports eliminating a Russian breakthrough near Pokrovsk with ongoing cleanup operations. Drone footage from the 'Battle for Pokrovsk,' displays successful strikes against RF targets. UAF "Pion" artillery is operating on the Donetsk direction. FPV drone footage of night combat operations by the 6th Battalion of the Azov Brigade shows thermal imagery of strikes. UAF forces have flooded a gas pipe in Kupiansk, attempting to thwart RF infiltration, and deny RF claims of fighting in the city center. UAF 15th Separate Artillery Reconnaissance Brigade "Black Forest" successfully destroyed an RF Buk-M2 SAM system (video confirmed). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts video claiming six accurate strikes by the "STRIKS" unit on the Southern Slobozhansky direction. Олександр Вілкул posts photo messages of the 77th Airmobile Brigade on the front. Оперативний ЗСУ posts drone footage showing Ukrainian forces identifying and striking a Russian artillery position and communication antenna in Kharkiv Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС highlights how the 1st Assault Regiment (1-й ОШП) "cut the pincers" of Russians near Dobropillya. President Zelenskyy met with soldiers of the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade participating in the defense of Myrnohrad and the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation, reporting 160 sq km liberated and 7 settlements freed. UAF's "Shadow" unit posts video of successful drone strikes on RF shelters ("укриттям"), indicating continued precision targeting of enemy fortifications. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts video showing the UAF 1st Assault Battalion holding its front line in Zaporizhzhia, destroying enemy forces "far from the line of contact" using FPV drones, indicating robust long-range defensive capabilities. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts video of "STRIKS" unit FPV drone operators from the 4th Border Guard Detachment destroying two enemy positions, a shelter, a BMP, and two vehicles (one laden with ammunition) on the Southern Slobozhansky direction. This highlights continued UAF tactical successes using FPV drones. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts photos of President Zelenskyy meeting with the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade at their command post, acknowledging their participation in the defense of Mirnohrad and the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video depicting drone footage of Ukrainian military positions, specifically trenches, being targeted and struck by munitions, with a logo of what appears to be a Ukrainian military insignia and a unit emblem with drones and an eagle, suggesting successful strikes against enemy positions. The caption reads "Окупантам не сховатися" (Occupiers cannot hide). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a video compilation showing intense combat engagements from a drone's perspective on the Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Kupiansk directions, documenting numerous RF artillery strikes and personnel losses. Two Ukrainian reconnaissance companies, including the "VARTOVI" unmanned systems battalion of Mykolaiv marines, are actively engaging Russian military assets, targeting vehicle convoys, artillery, and infantry positions. UAF drone operators from the 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" successfully destroyed eight Russian assault troops on the Pokrovsk direction. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides an operational update for 22:00, 18.09.2025, confirming UAF repelled the majority of RF assaults across multiple axes, indicating successful defensive operations despite heavy pressure. ТАСС reports RF Deputy Commander of a VDV assault battalion claims UAF forces are abandoning NATO weapons during retreat in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (UNVERIFIED RF IO) Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posted a video claiming to show aerial combat on the Zaporizhzhia front, displaying FPV drone footage, telemetry data, and what appears to be a Ukrainian drone targeting Russian equipment. This indicates continued intense drone warfare.

NEW INTELLIGENCE:

• Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast (RF Claim): "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming the 1009th regiment destroyed UAF infantry in Volchansk. Footage shows explosions, smoke, and what appears to be incendiary munitions. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (UAF Report): "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports on the consequences of enemy night attacks on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating ongoing RF aerial activity and damage. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast (UAF Report): "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" reports a 74-year-old man was injured due to an enemy attack on the Stepnohirsk community. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• General Staff Update (UAF Report): "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" provides operational information as of 08:00, 19.09.2025, stating UAF repelled 10 enemy assaults in the Southern Slobozhansky direction (Staromayorske district), 8 in the Orikhiv direction (Robotyne, Verkhnya Tersa, Novodanylivka, Stepnohirska communities), and 1 in the Kherson direction (Krynyk). UAF confirmed 70 combat engagements over the past day, including 26 on the Pokrovsk direction, and 25 on the Novopavlivka direction. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• RF Casualties: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports an additional 1150 personnel neutralized in the last 24 hours. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)
• RF Assistance for Frontline: Операция Z (RF source) amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" videos showing a man with crutches and another in tactical gear receiving medical supplies and radios for fighters on the Pokrovsk and Dnipropetrovsk fronts. (FACT, RF CLAIM - Donation deliveries for RF units)
• RF Mine Warfare Tactics: ТАСС (RF source) posts a video claiming UAF is leaving booby-trapped mines with water for RF assault troops in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• Yampil, DNR (RF Claim): ТАСС reports Marochko claimed RF Army broke through UAF defenses and entered Yampil in DNR. If verified, this represents a significant RF advance. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• RF SOF Operations (Vremevsky Direction): "Colonelcassad" posts video claiming the 14th Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade destroyed UAF militants on the Vremevsky direction. Footage shows drone thermal imagery and ground combat. (FACT, RF CLAIM)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (Confidence: HIGH)

Current conditions are generally clear and favorable for air operations across most of Ukraine. A cold front is moving into the Carpathians with temperatures dropping to -2°C, and snow is possible soon. The strongest geomagnetic storm in 3 months (G3) continues to impact satellite communications and GPS for both sides.

RF launched three S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles, one Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile, and 75 drones (over 40 of them Shaheds) overnight against Ukraine. 48 RF UAVs were shot down/suppressed. Persistent RF UAV threats affect Sumy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Odesa, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Poltava Oblasts. Zaporizhzhia experienced at least TEN strikes, killing one person and injuring 20, causing power outages. Sumy Oblast suffered two drone impacts, causing power outages and a warehouse fire. RF dropped three FAB-250 glide bombs on Kramatorsk, injuring 19. UAF Air Force warns of guided aerial bomb launches on Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Nizhyn suffered the "most massive strike from the beginning of the war" with dozens of drones, damaging critical infrastructure. Explosions confirmed in Sumy. Yampil is reported to be burning. Large fire at Kyiv logistics center liquidated after repeated morning attacks. UAF Air Force warns of several UAV groups past Derhachi, heading towards Kharkiv. RF sources report "powerful explosions in Balakliia (Kharkiv Oblast)" with videos of large smoke plumes. New RF drone group detections for Chernihiv Oblast towards Baturyn and renewed explosions in Kropyvnytskyi. Critical infrastructure hit by RF UAVs in Cherkasy Oblast. Large fire engulfing a multi-story building in Kyiv reported. КАБы on Kherson, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts. Five strong explosions in Petrovsky district of Donetsk. RF drone strike on a gas station in Poltava district, causing a fire and one casualty. UAF Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs (КАБ) on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. РБК-Україна reports Russians struck a residential area of Konstantinovka with a guided aerial bomb (КАБ), killing 5 people. Air Force of Ukraine reports tactical aviation activity in the northeast direction, specifically launching guided aerial bombs (КАБ) towards Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБы ➡️ на Донеччину! (Guided aerial bombs towards Donetsk Oblast!). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district). Николаевский Ванёк reports three UAVs approaching Pavlohrad, and subsequent defensive actions and successful downing of UAVs in Pavlohrad. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a person was injured in Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast, due to a drone attack and falling debris. Three women were injured in Vozdvyzhivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, due to an enemy attack, further increasing civilian casualties. The Kyiv City Military Administration (КМВА) has reported the all-clear for Kyiv, while the subway restores normal operations.

NEW INTELLIGENCE:

• Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast (RF Claim): "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming the 1009th regiment destroyed UAF infantry in Volchansk. Footage shows explosions, smoke, and what appears to be incendiary munitions. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (UAF Report): "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports on the consequences of enemy night attacks on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating ongoing RF aerial activity and damage. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast (UAF Report): "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" reports a 74-year-old man was injured due to an enemy attack on the Stepnohirsk community. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Kyiv (UAF Report): "РБК-Україна" and "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" report possible disruptions to card payments and ticket validation on high-speed trams and funiculars in Kyiv due to the night shelling. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• RF Air Defense: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) reports RF air defense destroyed 4 enemy UAVs over annexed Crimea overnight. ASTRA corroborates RF claims of 4 drones shot down over Crimea. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• Pavlohrad Drone Attack: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (UAF source) reports RF massively attacked Pavlohrad with drones overnight. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Air Defense Activity: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (UAF source) reports a group of UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast heading south. РБК-Україна corroborates with a map showing air alert zones. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Moscow Weather: Новости Москвы reports September 2025 in Moscow will be one of the driest. (FACT)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (Confidence: HIGH)

RF Forces:

• Ground: Multi-axis offensives continue with claims of advances in Krasnoarmeysk-Dmitrov, "grinding down" elite UAF units on Dobropillya direction, and entering Konstantinovka city limits. RF claims offensive development at the junction of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with claims of "liberating" Olhivske and Sosnovka. "Kurier" and "Fagot" UGVs deployed. Heavy reciprocal battles in Sumy Oblast. FAB strikes continue in Kalinovsky, targeting UAF logistics. Assault on Yampil has started, utilizing civilian clothing for disguise and human shields. North Korean 107-mm Type1963 MLRS observed. RF expanding bridgehead in Volchansk. RF Naval Infantry advancing in Sumy Oblast. RF Army actively advancing in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF detailing movements and territorial control changes in Zaporizhzhia (Stepnohirsk, Orikhiv, Tokmak). RF has taken fire control of approximately 5 km of H-26 highway near Stepova Novoselivka, leading to Kupiansk. RF continues to advance on Konstantinovka direction, with "pincers closing." Putin observed "Zapad-2025" exercises. RF claims full control of Serebryansky forestry. VDV performing parachute and armored vehicle air-dropping operations during "Zapad-2025." Tactical map claiming RF is developing an offensive at the junction of DPR, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. RF claims "Anwar" special forces destroyed a Swedish "S-tank" while supporting an offensive towards Sumy (highly unusual, likely IO). Multiple videos claiming the liberation of Novopetrovskoye. RF claims UAF attacks on DPR border led to increased RF strikes on enemy rear. RF claims destruction of a Paladin SAU, and successful destruction of UAF attempts to cross Dnieper. Video of a captured Russian soldier, Mikhail Stepanov, describing harsh combat conditions, coercive tactics, and low morale. Forced evacuation from 18 settlements in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. "Akhmat" SpN Regiment FPV drone reconnaissance on Sumy direction. Duma committee approved veteran status for volunteers in assault units. RF claims "Sparta" unit destroyed a UAF UAV control post. RF and UAF-affiliated sources amplify Deep State's report that RF forces are entering and consolidating in residential areas of Kupiansk. The captured RF soldier claims his unit used a gas pipe to infiltrate Kupiansk. RF military expert claims UAF created powerful underground fortifications in residential Konstantinovka. RF claims an offensive behind Chasiv Yar, with airborne forces destroying enemy defenses. Special incendiary detachment of 16th Guards NBC Protection Brigade, "Vostok" Group, using thermobaric munitions on Vremevskoye direction. MoD Russia posts video features Russian soldiers discussing UAV attacks, small group infiltrations by AFU, and the establishment of a buffer zone. MoD Russia claim of destroying a 3-person Ukrainian DRG attempting to infiltrate Kursk Oblast near Tetkino. Colonelcassad posts drone footage claiming to show a destroyed UAF M1A1 Abrams tank on the Sumy front (unverified). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claims "Anwar" special forces hit a rare Swedish Strv 103 tank in the Sumy border region (unverified). MoD Russia posts video showcasing RF MLRS firing rounds. Colonelcassad claims RF forces successfully crossed the Volchya River and are advancing in eastern Ivanovka. MoD Russia posts video claiming a T-80BVM tank crew destroyed an enemy stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a message: "Family, friends, brothers and sisters, we urgently need drones🚀." Старше Эдды claims RF forces have taken control of the outskirts of Kupiansk. Операция Z amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" video claiming RF VDV are destroying UAF positions and advancing on the Sumy front. Colonelcassad posts map claiming assault groups occupied new positions south of Novoivanivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of captured Russian soldiers in Kupiansk detailing orders to kill Ukrainian men and infiltration via a gas pipe. ТАСС reports Russian sergeant Dinir Shavaleev broke into an enemy dugout alone and eliminated two Ukrainian soldiers. Два майора posts video regarding drone repair and creation for marine infantry on Sumy direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video of RF soldiers evacuating a heavy, injured soldier. MoD Russia posts video of T-72B3M tanks neutralizing UAF positions in the LPR. Colonelcassad posts new map updates detailing RF ground advances over the past 24 hours, particularly around Kupiansk. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Kotsnews post drone footage of artillery strikes by "Vostok" Group on UAF fortified positions near Gavrilovka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк claims 18 officers of the operational staff of the RF 35th Combined Arms Army were killed in a sabotage operation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (unverified by UAF, but casualty list adds credibility). «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» posts thermal and daylight drone footage from the Sumy direction showing interception of an enemy drone and strike on an "enemy antenna." MoD Russia posts a photo message summarizing the progress of the special military operation as of 18 September 2025. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a video showing a Russian T-72 variant tank maneuvering and firing. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video claiming RF forces eliminated a UAF platoon in Konstantinovka. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video of Solovyov proposing replacing Russian border guards with North Koreans. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of Ukrainian border guards striking three enemy vehicles and manpower in the Southern direction. Janus Putkonen posts an image with the caption "Army Corps Zapad-2025 ended and training troops are moving to real operations against Kyiv forces." Alex Parker Returns posts video about high financial incentives for contract service in Moscow (6M rubles annually, 3.1M lump sum, 260k salary, 10M debt forgiveness). MoD Russia posts video showing signal units of the Tsentr Group of Forces deploying a secured radio network between forward units and a command post in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Воин DV posts video detailing the situation on the Southern Donetsk direction, specifically mentioning fighting in Novoivanovka, and shows drone footage of artillery strikes. Рыбарь posts a tactical map overlay for "fights in the agglomeration." Операция Z amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" claiming RF Army is breaking through to Zaporizhzhia via Kamyanske and Plavni, citing Ukrainian speaker Voloshyn. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video quoting Putin on over 700,000 Russian military personnel on the line of contact. Воин DV posts photos of Russian tank brigade soldiers from Buryatia being awarded. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video with captured RF soldiers discussing murder charges. Colonelcassad reports a cluster Iskander strike on a UAF company tactical group near Druzhkivka. "Два майора" posts a message from Putin to State Duma leaders, emphasizing the government's reliance on their support, indicating an ongoing effort to maintain political cohesion for the war. "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" posts a photo message claiming a person accused of raping a minor stepdaughter was released to fight in the war, indicating continued controversial recruitment practices. "Николаевский Ванёк" posts an exclusive video of a captured Cuban national from the 81st Airmobile Brigade, providing HUMINT on RF recruitment of foreign nationals and their combat experience. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming strikes on UAF positions on the Donetsk direction. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition amplifies Putin's statement that the "combined grouping of Russian forces in the SMO zone is over 700,000 servicemen," claiming "our fighters have no equals in the world." Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming "Akhmat" special forces successfully used a KVN drone to strike a UAF pickup truck with infantry in a wooded area on the Kharkiv direction, claiming "3 dead fighters." Игорь Артамонов posts a photo message highlighting a father of three, a Cossack and patriot, serving as a volunteer on the front since 2022, indicating continued RF volunteer recruitment and morale boosting. Воин DV posts video of drone operators from the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade conducting effective strikes against enemy manpower in the Polozhskoye direction, demonstrating continued offensive operations. Два майора posts a video compilation, including what appears to be a Russian tank being destroyed by UAF forces, suggesting ongoing tactical losses for RF. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo of a tactical map claiming a critical situation in Kupiansk, implying potential RF advances or UAF tactical setbacks in the area. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" states that their unit is experiencing a "difficult period," indicating possible operational strain. Russian forces are distributing leaflets in Velyka Pysarivka, Sumy Oblast, calling for "evacuation." "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a video showing Russian military personnel loading crates with Cyrillic text onto a vehicle, indicating routine logistical operations. Colonelcassad highlights "Aid's" comments on shotguns against FPV drones, suggesting tactical adaptations. Военкор Котенок posts a video showing a mix of medical emergency response and military training/operations footage, with a caption indicating a deficit of medics at the front. Операция Z amplifies a video showing Russian President Vladimir Putin discussing the establishment of a federal holiday for veterans of special military operations. Colonelcassad posts video claiming successful FPV drone and artillery strikes by RF's 3rd Army Corps on a UAF 155mm M109A5 self-propelled howitzer near Konstantinovka, supporting claims of continued high-intensity combat and RF precision capabilities. Воин DV posts a video showing military vehicles and apparent combat in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by RF "CENTER" and "VOSTOK" groups, suggesting ongoing RF ground operations and pressure in the area. Два майора posts a photo message showing a body exchange, confirming the ongoing process of exchanging fallen soldiers between both sides. Alex Parker Returns posts a grim video showing decomposing bodies in military fatigues and a scorched forest, indicating recent heavy combat and significant casualties, likely RF losses given the channel's general bias. Colonelcassad posts video claiming an UAF DRG of 4 militants armed with a "Baba-Yaga" heavy hexacopter was destroyed on the right bank of the Dnieper in Kherson Oblast while attempting to cross to the left bank. Alex Parker Returns shares information from Russian sources alleging that Rostec structures are servicing UAF helicopters (Mi-8MT/MTB) via AAL Group Ltd., registered in the UAE. Colonelcassad posts video on Wagner Group training Belarusian forces for 2 years, highlighting their combat experience in Syria and Africa. Alex Parker Returns posts video depicting a green pickup truck with supplies driving through a heavily damaged village, possibly from a forward logistics operation. New intelligence shows that the Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration, Dmitry Kozak, has been dismissed. Colonelcassad has posted videos of an exhibition "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" in Moscow's Victory Museum, showcasing Russian military heroism and destroyed enemy equipment. This includes an interactive map of military operations. OSINT-analyst Brady Africk reports RF has recently built a new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast, 35 km from the Ukrainian border. "Военкоры Русской Весны" (amplified by Операция Z) claims a former UAF officer who defected in 2014 is commanding the Russian offensive on Kupiansk. ТАСС reports RF Deputy Commander of a VDV assault battalion claims UAF forces are abandoning NATO weapons during retreat in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ТАСС reports RF forces advanced near Kupyansk, specifically at Kucherovka and Petropavlovka, clearing a tree line and destroying a UAF fortified area. ТАСС posts a video claiming a Croatian citizen, who recently obtained Russian citizenship, surrendered to Russian FPV drone operators in Zaporizhzhia Oblast while serving with UAF. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message with the caption " Airborne brotherhood, good morning!", a morale-boosting message likely depicting RF VDV forces.
• Air/Naval: High concentration of strategic bombers. "West-2025" and "Rubezh 2025" exercises ongoing, involving significant naval deployments and strategic aviation. OAK handed over another batch of new Su-34 fighter-bombers. RF launched three S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles and 75 drones (over 40 of them Shaheds) overnight. Tu-22M3 bombers patrolled over Barents Sea for "Zapad-2025." MoD Russia posts video of "Zapad 2025" Baltic Fleet repelling uncrewed surface vehicle attack. Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeployed. Baltic Fleet naval aviation conducted combat use of UMPK and Kh-31A anti-ship missiles. MoD Russia posts video of Iskander-M missile system electronic launches in Kaliningrad. MoD Russia and Basurin confirm successful missile launch from a submarine in Barents-Sea. Convoy of at least one military truck with two attack helicopters providing escort observed in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Bangladesh, India, Iran, Burkina Faso, Congo, and Mali participated in "Zapad-2025." Russia tested naval hypersonic weapons. "Massive use of unmanned aircraft and ground robots" as a feature of "Zapad-2025." Frigate "Admiral Golovko" conducted a Zircon hypersonic missile strike. MoD Russia posts video of "Zapad-2025" exercises showing landing craft disembarking BMPs and IL-76 transport aircraft conducting large-scale airdrops. Practical phase of "Zapad-2025" exercises concluded in Leningrad Oblast. RF strikes on railway infrastructure. UAF Air Force reports enemy tactical aviation activity in Sea of Azov, and КАБы on Kherson, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts. First regular flight from Moscow to Krasnodar since 2022. CSTO command-staff exercises "Rubezh-2025" began in Kyrgyzstan. Reports RF troops leaving Belarusian training grounds. Video showcasing a Russian naval parade. US Commerce Department denied "Belavia" permission to operate Boeing flights to Russia. UAF Air Force reports new launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aviation on the border of Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. UAF Air Force warns of a high-speed target heading towards Kharkiv. MoD Russia posts video of Il-38 anti-submarine aircraft conducting practical bombing of ground targets. UAF Air Force reports attack UAVs in Synelnykove, Novgorod-Siversky districts, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk Oblasts, and heading towards Kryvyi Rih district. An RF drone strike on a gas station in Poltava district. Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs (КАБ) on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photos of RF Su-25s flying low. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Zaliznychne, Rizdvyanka, Kamyanske, Hryhorivka, Veselyanka of Zaporizhzhia region, Antonivka, Inhulets of Kherson region, citing UAF General Staff. MoD Russia posts video compilation "Rubikon in action." Полиция Хабаровского края posts video of RF Minister of Internal Affairs Kolokoltsev visiting a police armaments exhibition in China. ТАСС reports Lavrov is planning to meet with UN Secretary-General Guterres. MoD Russia posts video showing Army Aviation Ka-52m helicopter hitting AFU manpower and armored vehicles in the Sever Group of Forces responsibility. Air Force of Ukraine reports tactical aviation activity in the northeast direction, specifically launching guided aerial bombs (КАБ) towards Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБы ➡️ на Донеччину! (Guided aerial bombs towards Donetsk Oblast!). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district). ТАСС reports the US State Department approved a possible sale of Javelin missiles to Poland for $780 million. ТАСС posts video of "Красноярск" and "Омск" nuclear submarines of the Pacific Fleet performing "Onyx" and "Granit" cruise missile launches in the Okhotsk Sea during exercises. Colonelcassad posts a video showcasing China's military development, specifically the testing of armed "robot dogs." The video shows a quadruped robot firing what appears to be an RPG.
• UAV/EW: Persistent FPV drone operations, reconnaissance UAV activity. Claims of destroying 80 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. "Molniya-2" UAVs adapted with fiber optics. Mass Shahed launches from three locations. Claims destruction of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone via FPV drone. Russia has managed to create a "drone production empire". RF air defense claims 87 RF UAVs were shot down overnight. UAF Air Force warns of multiple groups of RF UAVs approaching Kharkiv via Vilcha, Vovchansk, and Slatyne. Video claiming 218th Guards Tank Regiment air defense battery clearing skies of enemy drones. "Zephyr-M" UAV. UAF Air Force reports several UAV groups past Derhachi, heading towards Kharkiv. Russian drone invaded Lithuania was launched from Belarus. UAF Air Force reports a group of UAVs (mopeds) heading towards Nizhyn, Chernihiv Oblast. "Drone safety" in Saratov, Tambov, Voronezh, Rostov, and Volgograd Oblasts. A fire at Morozovsk airfield in Rostov Oblast. UAF Air Force reports new groups of RF attack UAVs (mopeds) detected over Kherson Oblast, heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast. MoD Russia posts new video showcasing diverse drone activity. UAF Air Force reports UAVs in Poltava suburbs and multiple groups of UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast heading towards Kamianske. UAF Air Force reports new groups of RF attack UAVs (mopeds) moving through Okhtyrka district, Sumy Oblast, towards Poltava Oblast. New drone danger warning for Bryansk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a new RF UAV (moped) heading towards Myrhorod in Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a UAV in Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Baturyn. "Ostatok po mopedam" update. Video of the "Torn-MDM" complex being used during "Zapad-2025" exercises. RF anti-icing technology for UAVs for extreme cold. Plans for anti-drone protected security zones in Russian border areas. UAF General Staff states RF has used over 2000 drones. RF FPV drone strike on a minibus in Vasylivsky district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF air defense destroyed 8 enemy UAVs overnight. Enemy reconnaissance UAV in Zaporizhzhia. Enemy attack UAV in Kramatorsk. Video of a UAF soldier picking up an RF fiber-optic FPV drone "KVN", which then detonates. UAF Air Force, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-УкраїНА all report 136 RF UAVs shot down/suppressed out of 172 launched, including over 100 Shaheds. Video with an Orlan-30 drone operator discussing its EW resistance. Bakonov states an analog of Starlink will soon appear in Russia. Claims Russian "Geraniums" (Shaheds) hit two substations overnight. Video of "Akhmat" SpN Regiment FPV drone reconnaissance on Sumy direction. Roscosmos CEO reported Russia will soon have its own satellite communication terminal. UAF Air Force warns of a high-speed target heading towards Kharkiv. Kotsnews claims "Rubikon" fighters shot down 1000 enemy drones. UAF Air Force reports attack UAVs in Synelnykove, Novgorod-Siversky districts, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk Oblasts, and heading towards Kryvyi Rih district. Colonelcassad reports the development of a polyamide net capable of neutralizing 50-100% of the kinetic energy of loitering munitions. Kotsnews reports AI is being implemented in the process of updating the Ruviki encyclopedia at Kazan Digital Week 2025. Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming "Akhmat" special forces successfully used a KVN drone to strike a UAF pickup truck with infantry in a wooded area on the Kharkiv direction, claiming "3 dead fighters." Два майора posts a video showcasing a possible Russian drone destroying a Ukrainian tank, implying RF drone effectiveness. "Операция Z" amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" claiming "Otvazhnye" forces are using "BABA-YAGA" drones to destroy NATO equipment, infantry, and enemy positions near Pokrovsk. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report a fragment of a Russian "Gerbera" (likely a UAV) was discovered on a beach in Latvia, indicating potential operational failures or increased reconnaissance activity by RF near NATO borders. Prime Minister Shmyhal states Ukraine will use 1000 interceptor drones per day in the near future. This indicates an urgent and substantial scale-up of UAF counter-UAV capabilities. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement that Ukraine will use 1000 interceptor drones per day in the near future, indicating a strategic shift towards large-scale counter-UAV operations. New intelligence from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS indicates Ukraine is producing 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month and aims for 7 missiles daily by year-end, signaling an increase in domestic missile production. Николаевский Ванёк reports three UAVs approaching Pavlohrad, and subsequent defensive actions and successful downing of UAVs in Pavlohrad. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine report over 20 Shaheds are heading from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv. The Air Force of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast. РБК-Україна posts a video message reporting RF has recently built a new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast, 35 km from the Ukrainian border, attributed to OSINT-analyst Brady Africk. РБК-Україна also posts a tactical analysis of a satellite image of the Bryansk Oblast launch site. This new site likely implies an increased and more direct drone threat to northern Ukraine, particularly Kyiv and Sumy Oblasts. Воин DV posts a video showing FPV drone operators from RF intercepting Ukrainian UAVs in the sky of Donbass. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posted a video claiming to show aerial combat on the Zaporizhzhia front, displaying FPV drone footage, telemetry data, and what appears to be a Ukrainian drone targeting Russian equipment. This indicates active RF counter-drone operations and intense drone warfare in the region.
• Air Defense: Photos of a Pantsir-S1/S2 air defense system. RF air defense destroyed 10 enemy UAVs over Bryansk Oblast overnight. MoD Russia posts video of MiG-31bm fighter jets protecting long-range aircraft. PPO is working on drones in Kyiv Oblast and in Kyiv. Temporary flight restrictions at Volgograd, Kaluga, and Saratov airports. RF air defense intercepted and destroyed UAVs in five districts of Rostov Oblast. RF air defense destroyed 8 enemy UAVs overnight. UAF Air Force, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-УкраїНА all report 136 RF UAVs shot down/suppressed out of 172 launched. UAF Air Force reports the threat for Kharkiv has been lifted. RF MoD claims 6 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Belgorod Oblast. 7 RF UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in the evening. ТАСС reports PVO forces shot down six Ukrainian UAVs over Kursk, Belgorod, and Rostov Oblasts. The air raid alarm in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted. ASTRA reports temporary flight restrictions at Samara airport. Air Force of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeast. Николаевский Ванёк reports Pavlohrad began defending against the drone attack, with a subsequent successful downing of drones. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports an air raid alert, followed by an all-clear. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a UAV was shot down over Kyiv overnight, with debris falling in multiple locations, as confirmed by KMVA.

NEW INTELLIGENCE:

• Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast (RF Claim): "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming the 1009th regiment destroyed UAF infantry in Volchansk. Footage shows explosions, smoke, and what appears to be incendiary munitions. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (UAF Report): "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports on the consequences of enemy night attacks on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating ongoing RF aerial activity and damage. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast (UAF Report): "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" reports a 74-year-old man was injured due to an enemy attack on the Stepnohirsk community. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Kyiv (UAF Report): "РБК-Україна" and "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" report possible disruptions to card payments and ticket validation on high-speed trams and funiculars in Kyiv due to the night shelling. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• RF Air Defense: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) reports RF air defense destroyed 4 enemy UAVs over annexed Crimea overnight. ASTRA corroborates RF claims of 4 drones shot down over Crimea. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• Pavlohrad Drone Attack: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (UAF source) reports RF massively attacked Pavlohrad with drones overnight. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Air Defense Activity: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (UAF source) reports a group of UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast heading south. РБК-Україна corroborates with a map showing air alert zones. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• RF Air Defense Production: ТАСС (RF source) reports the "High-Precision Systems" holding delivered a batch of new "Pantsir-SMD" SAM systems to the RF Armed Forces. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• RF Mining Policy: ТАСС (RF source) reports the Ministry of Energy does not expect new bans on cryptocurrency mining in RF regions soon. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• RF Information Control: ТАСС (RF source) reports the list of Russian services and websites available during mobile network restrictions for security purposes will be updated weekly. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• RF Drone Superiority Claim: Операция Z (RF source) amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" video claiming "Rubikon" (Lekka-100 drone) achieves air superiority. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• RF Civilian Casualties (Belgorod): ASTRA (RF source) reports two people were injured in Belgorod Oblast due to drone strikes. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• UAF Deep Strike (Kursk Oblast): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) posts video claiming SSO struck a logistics hub of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade (OBRMPS) in Kursk Oblast. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)
• Geopolitical Speculation (Venezuela): Рыбарь (RF source) posts about forecasts of a possible US invasion of Venezuela. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• Israel's Iron Beam (Два майора): "Два майора" posts video claiming Israel's Iron Beam laser air defense system is ready for use this year. (FACT, RF REPORT on foreign military technology).

UAF Forces:

• Defensive: Actively defending across all major axes, repelling numerous RF assaults (11 in Kursk/Sumy directions, 2 in Kherson). President Zelenskyy met with soldiers of the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade, highlighting their participation in the defense of Myrnohrad. Presidential Brigade of UAF posts video showing night combat operations on the front, emphasizing vigilance. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts video of the UAF 1st Assault Battalion holding its front line in Zaporizhzhia and destroying enemy forces with FPV drones, confirming strong defensive posture. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts photos of President Zelenskyy meeting with the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade at their command post, acknowledging their participation in the defense of Mirnohrad and the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation. Олександр Вілкул provides a briefing outlining the continuation of systemic aid to the military, including specialized vehicles, trucks, and 10 DJI Matrice 4T quadcopters for the 77th Airmobile Brigade, reinforcing defensive posture. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a video showing defensive actions with significant engagements on Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Kupiansk directions. Kyiv subway's red line services partially suspended due to an air raid alarm, indicating a defensive control measure. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's operational update confirms UAF repelled the majority of RF assaults on all key axes, demonstrating strong defensive posture and effectiveness. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a UAV was shot down over Kyiv overnight, with debris falling in multiple locations, as confirmed by KMVA, indicating successful defensive action.
• Localized Counter-Offensives: Confirmed liberation of Pankivka, Donetsk Oblast, and Zarichne. UAF reports eliminating a Russian breakthrough near Pokrovsk with ongoing cleanup operations. The "STRIKS" unit's successful strikes on the Southern Slobozhansky direction and border guard strikes on RF vehicles demonstrate tactical offensive readiness. President Zelenskyy's visit to Donetsk Oblast, where he discussed liberated territories and met with soldiers of the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation, confirms active UAF offensive operations, including 160 sq km liberated and 7 settlements freed. The 1st Assault Regiment successfully repelled an RF "pincer" maneuver near Dobropillya. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts video of the "STRIKS" unit (4th Border Guard Detachment) successfully destroying two enemy positions, a shelter, a BMP, and two vehicles (one with ammunition) on the Southern Slobozhansky direction using FPV drones, indicating continued effective localized offensive action. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts photos of President Zelenskyy meeting with the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade at their command post, acknowledging their participation in the defense of Mirnohrad and the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation, and discussing a "Dobropillya counter-offensive operation." Оперативний ЗСУ posts video depicting drone footage of Ukrainian military positions, specifically trenches, being targeted and struck by munitions, with a logo of what appears to be a Ukrainian military insignia and a unit emblem with drones and an eagle, suggesting successful counter-offensive actions or defensive strikes against enemy positions. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a video compilation showing intense combat engagements from a drone's perspective on the Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Kupiansk directions, documenting numerous RF artillery strikes and personnel losses. Two Ukrainian reconnaissance companies, including the "VARTOVI" unmanned systems battalion of Mykolaiv marines, are actively engaging Russian military assets, targeting vehicle convoys, artillery, and infantry positions. UAF drone operators from the 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" successfully destroyed eight Russian assault troops on the Pokrovsk direction.
• High Readiness in Key Sectors: Sustained commitment of forces in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction and efforts to hold Kupiansk demonstrate readiness. Visual confirmation of the 77th Airmobile Brigade's presence.
• Tactical Drone Integration: Extensive use of FPV and thermal-imaging drones for night operations and precision strikes (Azov Brigade, "Shadow" unit), including new 10-inch FPV drones from volunteer efforts. New cooperation agreement with Poland on drones, and joint operational group on UAVs. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of the 1st Assault Battalion using FPV drones against RF checkpoints and transport. President Zelenskyy's discussions with commanders of the 82nd Air Assault Brigade explicitly included drone systems. "Підрозділ Shadow" posts video of successful drone strikes on RF shelters, confirming continued effective tactical drone use. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts video of the UAF 1st Assault Battalion destroying enemy forces with FPV drones in Zaporizhzhia, highlighting effective drone integration for long-range engagements. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts video of the "STRIKS" unit's FPV drone successes on the Southern Slobozhansky direction, further confirming advanced tactical drone integration. Олександр Вілкул posts a briefing detailing the transfer of 10 DJI Matrice 4T quadcopters to the 77th Airmobile Brigade. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a photo message featuring a drone with the caption "Дальність? Вітер? Борт заармовано?" (Range? Wind? Board armed?), indicating UAF's technical focus on drone operations. The "VARTOVI" unmanned systems battalion and 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" are actively demonstrating effective drone operations. Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement about Ukraine using 1000 interceptor drones daily indicates an immediate and significant scaling of UAF counter-UAV capabilities. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement that Ukraine will use 1000 interceptor drones per day in the near future, indicating a strategic shift towards large-scale counter-UAV operations. New intelligence from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS indicates Ukraine is producing 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month and aims for 7 missiles daily by year-end, signaling an increase in domestic missile production. Николаевский Ванёк reports three UAVs approaching Pavlohrad, and subsequent downing of drones. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine report over 20 Shaheds are heading from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv. The Air Force of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast. РБК-Україна posts a video message reporting RF has recently built a new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast, 35 km from the Ukrainian border, attributed to OSINT-analyst Brady Africk. РБК-Україна also posts a tactical analysis of a satellite image of the Bryansk Oblast launch site. This new site likely implies an increased and more direct drone threat to northern Ukraine, particularly Kyiv and Sumy Oblasts. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posted a video claiming to show aerial combat on the Zaporizhzhia front, displaying FPV drone footage, telemetry data, and what appears to be a Ukrainian drone targeting Russian equipment. This visual confirmation reinforces UAF's active and successful use of drones in combat.
• Personnel Mobilization: DPSU is transferring data on men attempting to illegally cross the border to TCCs. The new Law on the Military Ombudsman indicates a focus on personnel welfare. Training activities by the Zaporizhzhia Center for National Resistance. РБК-Україна posts a photo message claiming a Ministry of Defense official was exposed in an evasion scheme, indicating ongoing efforts to combat corruption related to mobilization. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo message reporting the exposure of heads of military medical commissions in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts who helped military personnel transfer to rear units for bribes, indicating continued issues with personnel integrity within the mobilization system.
• Morale: Exhibitions for Tank Troops Day and commemoration of rescuers. Positive messaging about the 77th Airmobile Brigade. Discussions with families of POW/MIA personnel. Opening of a memorial alley in Zaporizhzhia. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts reinforcing soldier camaraderie. President Zelenskyy has visited a command post of the Air Assault Forces (DSHV) in Donetsk Oblast, discussing active defense, training, manning, and drone systems. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (Kharkiv ODA Head) posts photo messages about stable mobile communication and internet being guaranteed even under enemy shelling. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of captured Russian soldiers, including one who claims to have been captured just two weeks after signing a contract. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts photo messages of President Zelenskyy awarding soldiers participating in the Dobropillya counter-offensive. "Николаевский Ванёк" posts an exclusive video of a captured Cuban mercenary, providing HUMINT on RF recruitment of foreign nationals and their combat experience. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts photos of President Zelenskyy meeting with the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade at their command post, acknowledging their participation in the defense of Mirnohrad and the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo message announcing the opening of a mental health center for military personnel, veterans, and their families in Ternopil, highlighting UAF efforts to support the well-being of its forces and their families. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" is running a fundraiser/raffle for a "cool shell casing," indicative of continued grassroots support and morale-boosting efforts. "Оперативний ЗСУ" is actively soliciting donations for troops on the Pokrovsk direction, demonstrating continued public engagement in supporting the military. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video showing the Motherland Monument in Kyiv illuminated with patriotic laser projections ("UNITY", "VOLIA"), directly reinforcing UAF morale and national identity. STERNENKO posts a message encouraging donations, connecting financial contributions to reducing Russian presence.
• Internal Security: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video with captured RF soldiers discussing murder charges. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the conviction of a "Rashist" (Russian) who oversaw the "Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation" during the occupation of Kherson, signaling continued UAF efforts to prosecute collaborators and war criminals. РБК-Україна reports that claims of a "data leak" from e-Notariat (Ukrainian electronic notary system) are false and that Ukrainian data is secure, indicating continued efforts to counter disinformation regarding internal security. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts multiple photo messages related to RF casualties.
• External Support: NATO confirms the first US weapons delivery under PURL (Presidential Ukraine Reconnaissance and Logistics) has arrived in Ukraine, with more expected soon. РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS corroborate this. Олександр Вілкул's briefing details the transfer of 6.423 million UAH in aid to the 77th Airmobile Brigade, including private funds, from Кривий Ріг. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 posts a photo message highlighting that the USA and Great Britain signed a technology cooperation agreement. ТАСС reports the EU is discussing using frozen RF assets for a loan to Kyiv, bypassing Hungary, indicating continued EU support initiatives. РБК-Україна posts a photo message stating Zelenskyy invited Qatar to a summit in New York regarding the return of Ukrainian children, indicating ongoing international diplomatic efforts to address humanitarian issues. Reuters reports the EU plans to accelerate its rejection of Russian LNG due to pressure from Trump. This signals continued strong international support for decoupling from Russian energy. Рыбарь posts an image depicting the Polish Navy's projected strength, providing intelligence on regional force disposition. Bloomberg reports the EU plans to accelerate its rejection of Russian LNG due to pressure from Trump. This signals continued strong international support for decoupling from Russian energy. РБК-Україна reports Poland is conducting large-scale checks of bomb shelters. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a photo showing Rustem Umierov (Secretary of NSDC) and Patrick Turner (Head of NATO Representation in Ukraine) in a meeting, discussing security guarantees, indicating continued high-level engagement between Ukraine and NATO. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports that part of the weapons purchased by the EU from the USA for Kyiv has already arrived in Ukraine, confirming continued material support. ТАСС reports the US State Department approved a possible sale of Javelin missiles to Poland for $780 million. РБК-Україна reports that Rustem Umierov (Secretary of NSDC) met with Patrick Turner (Head of NATO Representation in Ukraine) to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine.

NEW INTELLIGENCE:

• Kryvyi Rih Situation: Олександр Вілкул (UAF source) reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of the morning of 19.09.25. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Pavlohrad Drone Attack: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (UAF source) reports RF massively attacked Pavlohrad with drones overnight. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• General Staff Update (UAF Report): "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" provides operational information as of 08:00, 19.09.2025, stating UAF repelled 10 enemy assaults in the Southern Slobozhansky direction (Staromayorske district), 8 in the Orikhiv direction (Robotyne, Verkhnya Tersa, Novodanylivka, Stepnohirska communities), and 1 in the Kherson direction (Krynyk). UAF confirmed 70 combat engagements over the past day. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Fundraising: "STERNENKO" reports collecting an additional 8 million UAH for the UAF yesterday. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• IAEA Resolution: РБК-Україна (UAF source) reports the IAEA General Conference adopted a resolution calling on Russia to return control of the Zaporizhzhia NPP to Ukraine. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• EU LNG Policy: "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports Bloomberg's statement that the EU plans to reject Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) as quickly as possible. (FACT, UAF REPORT)

1.4. Information Environment (Cognitive domain)

Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (Confidence: HIGH):

• RF Narratives: RF is heavily amplifying claims of "chaos and disorganization" and a "failed defense" in Kupiansk, leveraging quotes from Ukrainian military bloggers to lend false credibility. The claim of breakthroughs to Zaporizhzhia via Kamyanske and Plavni, citing a UAF speaker, is an attempt to amplify perceived UAF weakness. "РБК-Україна" reports on an alleged "conflict between GUR and the President's Office," which RF IO will immediately amplify to sow discord and undermine confidence in Ukrainian leadership and C2. Extensive reporting on FSB thwarting "terrorist attacks" in St. Petersburg, detaining "Ukrainian intelligence agents," and capturing "extremists," alongside the sentencing of a school guard for a Bucha repost, a resident for VKontakte audio recordings, and a new fine for wishing death to Russian soldiers, serves to project an image of a secure and capable state, while demonizing Ukraine and suppressing dissent. The narrative of "Colombian mercenaries organizing criminal business" in Ukraine also serves to discredit foreign fighters and link the conflict to criminality. Reports of detentions in Britain for spying for Russia also fit this narrative. The harsh 14-year sentence for a Zaporizhzhia resident supporting UAF reinforces the narrative of stringent control and suppression of dissent in occupied territories. The release of Baza producer Lukyanova to house arrest is a nuanced internal security narrative. The "drunk serviceman" in St. Petersburg hospital is also a negative internal security incident. Colonelcassad amplifies explanation from "Saperavi" restaurant on "Russophobic video," indicating RF's continued active monitoring and response to internal dissent and narratives. TASS reports Baza editor-in-chief Trifonov admitted guilt, confirming continued internal security operations targeting media perceived as hostile. Putin's statements on migration policy reinforce a narrative of strong internal security and control. TASS reports three Russian children were added to "Myrotvorets," a clear narrative to demonize Ukraine and portray Russians as victims. Claims of destroying Swedish "S-tanks" and "NATO supersystems" (e.g., PzH 2000), and "liberating Novonikolaevka," "Malaya Tokmachka," and Otradnoye, aim to exaggerate RF battlefield achievements and discredit Western military aid. New claims of precision strikes by Tornado-S MLRS crews in Konstantinovka, allegedly eliminating a UAF platoon. The "IPSO with cats" aims to humanize RF soldiers. The amplification of a 1000:24 UAF to RF body exchange ratio (highly likely exaggerated) reinforces the narrative of high UAF casualties. Promotion of financial incentives for contract soldiers also aims to project military strength and attractiveness. Putin's claims of 700,000 personnel on the line of contact is a significant IO effort to project scale. The awarding of soldiers from a tank brigade in Buryatia (Воин DV) serves to boost military morale and project success. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's video featuring Putin alongside individuals with "Z" symbols, implying that pardoned criminals are being presented as a "replacement" (замена) for those in power or for military service, aims to normalize controversial recruitment practices, although БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС's framing is highly critical. Colonelcassad reports a cluster Iskander strike on a UAF company tactical group, portraying RF precision strike capability. TASS reports Russia gaining control of "Музыка" publishing house with a 150-year archive, which can be spun as a victory of cultural influence and control. "Рыбарь" posts "Radicals at the doorstep" - a clear IO attempt to demonize Ukrainian nationalist groups and portray them as an existential threat, often used to justify RF actions. Reports on heating season starting, domestic incidents (crocodiles in "Moskvarium", MinFin's wine commentary, family mortgage discussions, protein quality reports, housing construction, sports nutrition labeling), and political appointments/resignations (Kozak, Gerasimov's extension - Colonelcassad) aim to project an image of stability and normalcy within Russia, despite the ongoing conflict. Discounting regional debts also contributes to this narrative. Putin's meeting with faction leaders (TASS) is framed as normal governance. RF assisting citizens in Gaza is a foreign policy normalcy report. Gold export restrictions suggest economic control, framed as stability. The wrestling tournament in Chechnya also projects regional pride and normalcy. The Veterans Association promotes patriotism and community. High financial incentives for contract soldiers aim to attract and retain personnel. Putin's integration of SMO veterans into political parties aims to further nationalize the war effort. Putin's comments on Stalingrad and macro-economic stability are designed for public reassurance. Putin's claims of lowest unemployment highlight economic normalcy. Putin's discussions on inflation (ТАСС) are part of this narrative of economic control and stability. New, highly inflammatory narratives claiming UAF attacked an ambulance in Oleshky and an FPV drone operator deliberately killed a civilian hostage on the Krasnolimansky direction. These are likely false flag operations or misattributed incidents designed to demonize UAF. RF is amplifying a UAF commander's statement predicting winter blackouts due to shelling, to further demoralize and signal continued attacks. Propaganda about "Europe pays, USA earns" directly targets the transatlantic alliance, aiming to sow discord and undermine support for Ukraine. Reports of US domestic issues and French protests against a defense factory (TASS report on Paris protests) are used to highlight Western internal divisions and problems. The satirical BBC headline about Macron is a direct attack. Lavrov's statements blaming the EU for prolonging the conflict reinforce this. Trump's statements that "Putin let me down" regarding Ukraine (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, Операция Z) and Starmer's discussions on "how to make Putin agree to peace" (РБК-УкраїНА, ASTRA) are being carefully monitored and likely spun by RF IO to highlight perceived Western confusion or disagreements. ТАСС also reports Trump's hope for "good news" regarding Ukraine settlement, further adding to the narrative of Western figures pushing for a resolution. TASS amplifies Trump's claims that falling oil prices could end the conflict, an IO narrative to shift blame and pressure Western economic policy. Alex Parker Returns amplifies Trump's "Putin let me down" statement, but frames it as crying, potentially for humorous or dismissive effect. TASS reports protests in Paris against austerity, explicitly linking them to "Katyusha" music, portraying Western internal disunity and anti-government sentiment. РБК-Україна reports Trump wants to return troops to Afghanistan, possibly as an IO attempt to highlight perceived US strategic missteps or a shift in focus away from Ukraine. TASS amplifies Trump's statement that the "threat of World War 3 has passed," aiming to portray RF as having de-escalated and to implicitly blame the West for initial tensions. "Операция Z" amplifies Trump's confused statement about "Azerbaijan and Albania," intending to portray Western leadership as inept and disorganized. Solovyov's proposal to replace Russian border guards with North Koreans, while presented as a discussion, could be a subtle IO effort to float the idea of greater North Korean involvement in the conflict or security arrangements. The claim that "Zapad-2025 ended and training troops are moving to real operations against Kyiv forces" (Janus Putkonen) is a direct IO threat, aiming to create fear and divert UAF resources. The proposal from RF Ministry of Defense "politruks" to create a state concept for "constructing the image of Russia's enemy" indicates a more formalized and long-term approach to information warfare, aiming to unify internal support and justify aggression. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА's memorial graphic, while seemingly commemorating, is an RF IO attempt to highlight UAF losses, particularly from special forces. The "Fate of a Man" video aims to humanize the conflict from an RF perspective. The video about a restaurant manager making anti-Russian statements aims to highlight and suppress internal dissent or perceived threats to the RF narrative. The "kolkhoz woman" video also aims to identify and demonize internal dissent. Zakharova's briefing on Lavrov's UNGA plans highlights RF's diplomatic efforts on the international stage. Рыбарь's "Trap for Turks" image, though artistic, suggests IO targeting specific international relationships, likely related to NATO or regional influence. Colonelcassad highlights a Saudi-Pakistan mutual defense pact, likely intending to show a shifting global alignment away from Western influence. MoD Russia meeting with Nigerian Chief of Defence Staff is used to project growing global partnerships. "Colonelcassad" posts a book cover of "Sudzha. There and back," likely intending to reinforce the narrative of RF presence and control in border regions, and potentially to commemorate or romanticize military actions. "Kotsnews" posts a video of Putin thanking State Duma deputies, a clear IO effort to project internal unity and strong leadership. "Рыбарь" posts an image with the caption "Radicals at the doorstep," aiming to frame Ukrainian nationalist groups as a threat and justify RF actions. ASTRA reports that "Peace to All" has been declared "undesirable" in Russia, indicating intensified suppression of dissent and anti-war sentiment. Colonelcassad posts a photo message stating that Tetyana Chornovol has been appointed to the Verkhovna Rada "instead of the killed Parubiy," and claims she "has a certificate of schizophrenia." This is a direct RF IO attack to discredit Ukrainian political figures and institutions. Игорь Артамонов posts a photo message promoting a father of three, a Cossack and patriot, serving as a volunteer on the front since 2022, aimed at boosting morale and volunteerism. Военкор Котенок reports that European media is writing about Poles conducting a large-scale revision of bomb shelters in preparation for a possible war with Russia, which is RF IO amplifying perceived NATO fear and justifying RF military posture. Операция Z amplifies a "Военкоры Русской Весны" report claiming "every third Pole will leave Poland if Russia attacks," which is a clear RF IO tactic to sow fear and demonstrate perceived weakness in Poland. STERNENKO posts a video of Donald Trump stating that Putin "kills many people" and "loses more people than he kills," and that "Russian soldiers are dying more than Ukrainian," which is US-based IO but will be amplified by UAF. Рыбарь posts a video on "illegals as a threat to Kazakhstan" which is an RF IO effort to promote internal security narratives and link migration to threats, potentially aiming to justify tighter border controls or influence regional policy. Alex Parker Returns reports Trump's statement that the "Ukrainian conflict no longer threatens World War III," which RF IO will amplify to project a de-escalatory narrative. Новости Москвы posts a photo message about "Tanuki preparing to open a restaurant on the Moon," a clear RF IO attempt to distract from the conflict and project normalcy. Глеб Никитин posts a video presenting a "Sports Nizhny Novgorod" metaverse, a soft power IO effort to project Russian technological advancement and civic engagement. Два майора posts a video "Ukrainian Record or At the sight of a Russian drone, take off your hat," which is a clear RF IO effort to portray Russian drone superiority and demoralize UAF. Kotsnews posts a video "Evening Bell" with images of the LADA Niva production line, which is an RF IO attempt to project civilian industrial normalcy and resilience. "Два майора" posts a video promoting the "depoliticization" of Joseph Stalin's contribution to WWII, a clear RF IO attempt to rehabilitate Stalin's image and leverage historical narratives for contemporary political goals. "Рыбарь" posts a video titled "Timely Terrorist Attack" (Своевременный теракт), which depicts armed individuals in an urban environment with Arabic exclamations. This is likely an RF IO attempt to link terrorism to external actors or to preemptively blame UAF for any internal incidents, potentially indicating a false flag operation or an attempt to divert attention. Colonelcassad posts images of a public protest in Paris, aiming to highlight Western internal disunity and instability. "Новости Москвы" posts a photo message about an iPhone launch, a blatant RF IO attempt to distract from the conflict and project normalcy. "РБК-Україна" reports that a former Ukrainian brigadier general who betrayed Ukraine in 2014 is commanding the assault on Kupiansk, which RF IO will amplify to portray internal Ukrainian weakness and defection. TASS reports RF is challenging the ICAO decision on MH17 at the ICJ. TASS reports Володин stated the State Duma will support the Ministry of Economic Development on migration issues, reinforcing the narrative of state control and internal stability. Alex Parker Returns broadcasts a statement from Trump saying it is "not the time to ask Putin for a ceasefire", which RF IO will leverage to depict Western disunity and an inability to influence Russian policy. ASTRA reports details of a school attack in Voronezh Oblast with the caption "You won't live, I'm already close." This serves RF IO to highlight internal security threats and potentially justify tightening controls. TASS reports the former Deputy Head of Khimki, Kaygorodov, was detained for large-scale fraud. This internal RF legal action will be spun as a fight against corruption, maintaining an image of rule of law. Операция Z amplifies Trump's statement about not asking Putin for a ceasefire, reinforcing RF IO on Western disunity. ТАСС reports the USA in the UN Security Council vetoed a resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. Alex Parker Returns posts inflammatory photo and video messages against "Ukrainians" and "Nazis," using a meme of Navalny as a zombie. ТАСС reports Trump expressed hope that the incident in Poland (likely referring to the F-16 missile incident from prior reports) was caused by loss of drone control. РБК-Україна reports Trump stating that relations between Putin and Zelenskyy are "terrible" and they "hate each other." РБК-Україна shares a video of Donald Trump commenting on the incident where Russian drones entered Polish airspace. Trump expresses disappointment in Putin and claims he could have ended the war quickly, indicating RF IO will likely spin this as Western confusion or disagreement on Russian actions, or a sign of Trump's desire for a quick resolution. Оперативний ЗСУ amplifies Trump's statement, "Russian drones should not have attacked Poland: they were quickly put out of action, and I don't want to comment on this," indicating UAF IO is monitoring and leveraging perceived contradictions or uncertainties in Western statements regarding border incidents. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message amplifying Trump's statement that relations between Putin and Zelensky are "terrible" and they "hate each other," serving as RF IO to portray an irreconcilable conflict. РБК-Україна further amplifies Trump's statements, emphasizing his disappointment in Putin and the mutual hatred between Putin and Zelenskyy, but also adding Trump's belief that "we will find a solution," creating a complex narrative that RF IO will try to exploit. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo and video message about an "Entrance forbidden to Jews" sign in Northern Germany, linking it to rising antisemitism and likely aiming to draw parallels with historical injustices or highlight European societal issues, potentially to deflect from RF's own actions or criticize European values. ТАСС posts a photo message with a caption criticizing "begging for protection from the aggressor," directly aiming to discredit Western aid to Ukraine and portray Ukraine as dependent. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message claiming Rostec structures service UAF helicopters, intended to create distrust and suggest internal corruption/collaboration. Colonelcassad posts a video depicting the destruction of a UAF "Baba-Yaga" heavy hexacopter and DRG, designed to project RF defensive successes and UAF losses. Colonelcassad also promotes Wagner Group training in Belarus, emphasizing their "unique combat experience" to portray RF and allied military superiority. Alex Parker Returns posts images and videos of a damaged residential area, but with a text that states it cannot be used for military analysis, an odd meta-commentary that could be a subtle IO tactic itself, or a poorly executed one. MoD Russia posts "Top News Today" as a collage, serving as a general IO effort to project activity and control the narrative of daily events. ТАСС reports Putin released Kozak from his position as Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration, indicating a high-level personnel change which RF IO will attempt to frame positively. Alex Parker Returns publishes a photo message indicating a proposal for new "contributions from restaurant checks for SVO needs," framed as a positive citizen initiative for the war effort, while implicitly criticizing an "endless source of funding" in "one special republic" (likely referring to Chechnya), indicating subtle internal RF IO. Новости Москвы posts a video of S7 Airlines presenting new employee uniforms, a blatant RF IO attempt to project normalcy and a functioning civilian economy. ТАСС reports Trump believes China is ready to finalize the TikTok sale to US companies, demonstrating RF's continued monitoring and reporting on international business and geopolitical events, often for IO purposes. Colonelcassad posts a photo message quoting Trump saying it is "not the time to ask Putin for a ceasefire," which RF IO will amplify to project RF strength and an unwavering stance. Minister of Finance Siluanov's statement on an expected 12-13% key rate for the 2026 budget indicates continued focus on economic stability messaging. Операция Z amplifies a Business Insider report predicting a world crisis in 2026, which RF IO will likely leverage to portray Western economic instability. Colonelcassad posts videos and images from the "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition, promoting RF military heroism and displaying destroyed enemy equipment (unattributed to specific units). "Военкоры Русской Весны" (amplified by Операция Z) claims a former UAF officer who defected in 2014 is commanding the Russian offensive on Kupiansk, a narrative that RF will leverage to sow discord within UAF. RF IO is actively disseminating content (Операция Z) that claims "shooting and explosions" in Kyiv, aiming to amplify the psychological impact of the drone attack and generate panic or demoralization among the Ukrainian population. Рыбарь's recent message (🇺🇸🇻🇪Вы думаете, это реально оказалась по итогу лодка с 60-тью наркосами?) could be a diversionary tactic to draw attention away from the Kyiv attack and other RF military actions. ТАСС reports that the "Fair Russia — For Truth" party proposes to increase maternity capital for a second child to 1 million rubles and for a third to 1.5 million rubles. This is RF IO aimed at boosting internal morale and addressing demographic challenges, projecting stability and state care. Операция Z reports on a man discussing salary disparities between military and civilian personnel in Ukraine. This is an RF IO attempt to sow discord, highlight perceived economic hardship, and potentially portray military service as economically unviable or emotionally taxing in Ukraine. ТАСС reports Roskomnadzor (Russian federal service for supervision in the sphere of communications) blocked over 70,000 fraudulent SIM cards using internal systems of the domestic messenger Max. This is an RF IO effort to project effective internal security and control over digital communications, likely to reassure the public and potentially to signal greater control over information flow. TASS reports that individuals involved in the murder of General Kirillov have been accused of organizing a terrorist community. This is an RF IO message to project internal security and control. TASS reports an interview with Viktor Vodolatsky, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee for CIS Affairs, Eurasian Integration, and Relations with Compatriots, stating that the settlement process in Ukraine could drag on until Trump's victory over the "deep state." This is a significant RF IO effort to leverage perceived Western internal divisions and to project a long-term, politically-influenced conflict resolution timeline favorable to RF. The video also features nationalistic rhetoric, emphasizing Russian historical resilience and asserting confidence in Russia's eventual victory and reclaiming of historical lands. This reinforces a narrative of historical destiny and inevitable triumph. РБК-Україна posts a photo message stating Russia has appealed the ICAO decision regarding MH17 at the UN Court. This is a continuation of RF's legal and information warfare to deny responsibility. ТАСС posts a video claiming a Croatian citizen, who recently obtained Russian citizenship, surrendered to Russian FPV drone operators in Zaporizhzhia Oblast while serving with UAF. This is an RF IO attempt to demonstrate UAF disorganization and RF success. Рыбарь posts a daily situation summary, "Chronicle of the SMO for September 18," indicating continued structured RF information dissemination.
• UAF Narratives: Emphasis on repelling RF assaults, successful deep strikes (Salavat refinery, Buk-M2), and the capture of RF personnel (425th Regiment "Skelya", "STRIKS" unit successes, border guard strikes, SBU agent detention, Kharkiv spotter detention, 35th Combined Arms Army casualties list) reinforces UAF's fighting capability and resolve. Zelenskyy's report of successful counter-offensive in Donetsk Oblast, including liberated territory and significant RF casualties, is a major boost to this narrative. The active public fundraising for advanced FPV drones ("best drones to work with") is a key part of this narrative. Reconnaissance personnel are highlighted as key to victory. The destroyed Poltava monument helicopter also serves as a symbol of resilience. UAF artillery displaying adaptability and continuous operation also reinforces this. President Zelenskyy's direct engagement with frontline units in Donetsk Oblast and the 82nd Air Assault Brigade command post further supports this narrative. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts reinforcing soldier morale. The 1st Assault Regiment's success near Dobropillya reinforces this. President Zelenskyy meeting with 79th Air Assault Brigade soldiers directly supports the narrative of resilience and success, highlighting specific unit involvement in current operations. The arrival of US PURL weapons is a strong narrative for continued international support and UAF capabilities. The Presidential Brigade of UAF posts a video showcasing night combat operations, emphasizing vigilance and effectiveness. Dnipropetrovsk ODA Head visiting emergency medical services championship highlights preparedness and resilience in the face of attacks. Zaporizhzhia ODA posts about evacuating young footballers, highlighting humanitarian efforts amidst conflict. "Підрозділ Shadow" posts video of successful drone strikes on RF shelters, reinforcing UAF precision strike capabilities. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts video of the UAF 1st Assault Battalion holding its front line in Zaporizhzhia and destroying enemy forces with FPV drones, confirming UAF effectiveness and morale. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts video of the "STRIKS" unit's FPV drone successes on the Southern Slobozhansky direction, further confirming advanced tactical drone integration. Олександр Вілкул posts a briefing detailing the transfer of 10 DJI Matrice 4T quadcopters to the 77th Airmobile Brigade. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a photo message featuring a drone with the caption "Дальність? Вітер? Борт заармовано?" (Range? Wind? Board armed?), indicating UAF's technical focus on drone operations. The "VARTOVI" unmanned systems battalion and 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" are actively demonstrating effective drone operations. Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement about Ukraine using 1000 interceptor drones daily indicates an immediate and significant scaling of UAF counter-UAV capabilities. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts multiple photo messages showcasing a tactical screen with telemetry data. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement that Ukraine will use 1000 interceptor drones per day in the near future, indicating a strategic shift towards large-scale counter-UAV operations. Ukraine is producing 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month and aims for 7 missiles daily by year-end, which will be leveraged to project growing domestic defense capabilities. Documenting casualties (Konstantinovka КАБ strike killing 5 civilians), damage to civilian infrastructure (Nizhyn, Zaporizhzhia), and war crimes allegations (exhumation videos, Donetsk displacement photos) aims to highlight RF atrocities and maintain international support. The opening of a memorial alley in Zaporizhzhia directly reinforces the narrative of sacrifice and remembrance. Demining efforts highlight UAF efforts to protect civilians. Dnipropetrovsk ODA reporting КАБ and drone strikes on civilian communities highlights RF aggression and humanitarian impact. Renewed air alerts in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast are implicitly used to highlight ongoing RF aggression against civilian areas. Reports on investigations into TCC officials and high-level fraud, recent corruption busts in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the investigation into a pro-Russian judge, the detention of Novinsky (RPC curator), and the uncovering of an organized gambling network in Kyiv demonstrate commitment to transparency and good governance. Prosecution of an FSB officer for war crimes. Life sentence for an FSB officer who brutally treated civilians in Kherson Oblast demonstrates accountability for war crimes. Exposure of a human trafficking ring led by a PRC citizen. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the conviction of a "Rashist" who oversaw the "Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation" during the occupation of Kherson, which serves to project UAF's commitment to justice and accountability. Zelenskyy's statements confirming successful operations on RF territory and the impact on the RF fuel sector highlight UAF's growing asymmetrical capabilities. Highlighting security cooperation agreements with partners like Greece and the new drone cooperation agreement with Poland, including a joint operational group. New military aid from Ireland. Poland checking bomb shelters also indirectly signals allied seriousness about RF threats. РБК-Україна reporting Starmer's commitment to help Ukraine with Trump (photo message) promotes this. Trump's statements about "Putin letting him down" and hopes for "good news" on the Ukraine settlement are being used by UAF IO to highlight potential divisions in the West's perception of Putin's actions and a desire for peace on Ukraine's terms. Confirmation of US PURL weapons arrival is a strong narrative for continued international support and UAF capabilities. Operatyvny ZSU also reports the first US PURL weapon delivery. An EU Ambassador emphasizing the need for energy reforms in Ukraine (РБК-Україна) highlights continued international interest and support for Ukraine's long-term stability. UAF IO material depicting soldiers in combat and sacrifice, often leveraging emotional elements like a fallen soldier with a cat, reinforces patriotic narratives. Training initiatives for national resistance also foster patriotism. The Military Ombudsman law emphasizes caring for service members. The Coordination Headquarters provides critical support for families of POWs/MIA, bolstering morale. Active reporting on the return of bodies of fallen servicemen demonstrates transparency and care for personnel. Report on no elections in 2026 implies UAF IO to justify wartime measures. Appointment of Tetyana Chornovol as people's deputy highlights democratic processes. РБК-Україна posts a photo message featuring an analytical piece titled "War, Ukraine, the world. What to pay attention to today," which frames ongoing events from a Ukrainian perspective. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the EU will accelerate its rejection of Russian liquefied natural gas due to pressure from Trump, positioning this as a positive outcome for Ukraine. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video with an inflammatory caption against the "second army," displaying strong anti-RF sentiment and bolstering UAF morale and resolve. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a video compilation documenting over 1300 combat engagements in the last seven days, with nearly a third on the Pokrovsk direction. РБК-Україна posts a photo message stating Zelenskyy invited Qatar to a summit in New York regarding the return of Ukrainian children, highlighting humanitarian diplomacy. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo message detailing the exposure of heads of military medical commissions in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts for bribery, promoting transparency and anti-corruption efforts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo message announcing the opening of a mental health center in Ternopil for military personnel and veterans, emphasizing support for service members. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts drone footage of Mykolaiv marines (VARTOVI battalion) successfully striking Russian vehicles, artillery, and infantry, demonstrating UAF effectiveness and boosting morale. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts drone footage of the 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" destroying eight Russian assault troops on the Pokrovsk direction, further reinforcing the narrative of successful UAF operations and precision. "РБК-Україна" refutes claims of a "data leak" from e-Notariat, serving to reassure the public about data security and counter RF disinformation. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports RF is distributing "evacuation" leaflets in Velyka Pysarivka, Sumy Oblast, which UAF IO can frame as a sign of RF desperation or fear of UAF counter-action. "Оперативний ЗСУ" crowdfunding for the Pokrovsk direction highlights continued public support. "Colonelcassad" posts an image claiming Russian forces destroyed "Georgian mercenary Yura Kalandarishvili," which RF IO will use to discredit foreign fighters and claim successes against NATO-aligned personnel, but UAF IO can use it to highlight the international nature of the conflict and RF's willingness to target foreign fighters. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a humorous video with "victory music," likely a morale-boosting effort. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that a former Ukrainian brigadier general who betrayed Ukraine in 2014 is commanding the assault on Kupiansk, a narrative highlighting internal betrayal which UAF IO can use to emphasize the enemy's reliance on such figures. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна reporting on the "Gerbera" UAV fragment found on a Latvian beach highlights RF external aggression. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement about 1000 interceptor drones daily, boosting morale by projecting a strong, adaptive, and technologically advanced defense. UAF IO will likely frame the EU's accelerated rejection of Russian LNG (Bloomberg) as a victory for international pressure and a sign of weakening Russian economic power. UAF IO will counter RF amplification of Trump's "no ceasefire" statement by highlighting it as evidence that international leaders recognize Putin's unwillingness to genuinely negotiate, reinforcing UAF's resolve to continue fighting. РБК-Україна highlights Poland conducting large-scale checks of bomb shelters, framing it within the context of European readiness to RF threats. РБК-Україна shares a video of Donald Trump suggesting Europe taking action against China could accelerate the end of the war in Ukraine, which UAF IO will likely monitor for opportunities to reinforce narratives of international pressure on RF. Оперативний ЗСУ posts messages regarding Russia's challenge to the ICAO decision on MH17, framing it as Russia attempting to evade responsibility. РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Pavlohrad, and Николаевский Ванёк reports successful downing of drones. These immediate reports from UAF-aligned channels serve as direct IO reinforcing UAF's active defense and effectiveness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting that Ukraine produces 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month, aiming for 7 daily by year-end, which will be leveraged to project growing domestic defense capabilities. The UAF Air Force (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) reporting 20+ Shaheds from Chernihiv to Kyiv is a direct and immediate UAF IO response highlighting ongoing RF threats and UAF defensive vigilance. The Air Force of Ukraine (Повітряні Сили ЗС України) report on a group of UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast also serves as a critical, immediate UAF IO communication. РБК-Україна posts a video message reporting RF has recently built a new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast, 35 km from the Ukrainian border, attributed to OSINT-analyst Brady Africk. РБК-Україна also posts a tactical analysis of a satellite image of the Bryansk Oblast launch site. This new site likely implies an increased and more direct drone threat to northern Ukraine, particularly Kyiv and Sumy Oblasts. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posted a video claiming to show aerial combat on the Zaporizhzhia front, displaying FPV drone footage, telemetry data, and what appears to be a Ukrainian drone targeting Russian equipment. This visual confirmation reinforces UAF's active and successful use of drones in combat.

NEW INTELLIGENCE:

• Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast (RF Claim): "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming the 1009th regiment destroyed UAF infantry in Volchansk. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (UAF Report): "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports on the consequences of enemy night attacks on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast (UAF Report): "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" reports a 74-year-old man was injured due to an enemy attack on the Stepnohirsk community. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Kyiv (UAF Report): "РБК-Україна" and "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" report possible disruptions to card payments and ticket validation on high-speed trams and funiculars in Kyiv due to the night shelling. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Netherlands Refugee Policy: РБК-Україна reports that the Netherlands is considering excluding Ukrainian male refugees from the housing system. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Bornholm (RF Allegation): ТАСС reports Russian Ambassador to Denmark, Vladimir Barbin, claimed Bornholm Island is used by Copenhagen to create security threats to Russia, particularly Kaliningrad Oblast. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• Yampil, DNR (RF Claim): ТАСС reports Marochko claimed RF Army broke through UAF defenses and entered Yampil in DNR. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• Nesterianka (RF Claims): "Два майора" posts video claiming UAF "radio-controlled kamikaze drones, fiber-optic attack UAVs, artillery shelling, and tank fire" on RF positions in Nesterianka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• RF Casualties: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports an additional 1150 personnel neutralized in the last 24 hours. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)
• RF External IO (Poland): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) reports a channel for transferring Ukrainian draft evaders was blocked in Poland. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• RF Assistance for Frontline: Операция Z (RF source) amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" videos showing a man with crutches and another in tactical gear receiving medical supplies and radios for fighters on the Pokrovsk and Dnipropetrovsk fronts. (FACT, RF CLAIM - Donation deliveries for RF units)
• RF Mine Warfare Tactics: ТАСС (RF source) posts a video claiming UAF is leaving booby-trapped mines with water for RF assault troops in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• RF Air Defense: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) reports RF air defense destroyed 4 enemy UAVs over annexed Crimea overnight. ASTRA corroborates this. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• US Veto on Gaza Ceasefire: Два майора (RF source) reports the US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution on a Gaza ceasefire. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• Moscow Weather: Новости Москвы reports September 2025 in Moscow will be one of the driest. (FACT)
• RF Social Welfare (TASS): "ТАСС" reports Olga Yaroslavskaya, Moscow Children's Rights Commissioner, supported the idea of payments to families with three or more children, proposing it be called "family capital" instead of "father's capital." (FACT, RF REPORT)
• RF Consumer Spending (Новости Москвы): "Новости Москвы" reports every fifth Russian spends over 40% of income on food. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• UAF Fundraising: "STERNENKO" reports collecting an additional 8 million UAH for the UAF yesterday. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• EU LNG Policy: "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports Bloomberg's statement that the EU plans to reject Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) as quickly as possible. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• RF SOF Operations (Vremevsky Direction): "Colonelcassad" posts video claiming the 14th Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade destroyed UAF militants on the Vremevsky direction. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• Israel's Iron Beam (Два майора): "Два майора" posts video claiming Israel's Iron Beam laser air defense system is ready for use this year. (FACT, RF REPORT on foreign military technology).
• RF Air Defense Production: ТАСС (RF source) reports the "High-Precision Systems" holding delivered a batch of new "Pantsir-SMD" SAM systems to the RF Armed Forces. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• RF Mining Policy: ТАСС (RF source) reports the Ministry of Energy does not expect new bans on cryptocurrency mining in RF regions soon. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• RF Information Control: ТАСС (RF source) reports the list of Russian services and sites available during mobile network restrictions for security purposes will be updated weekly. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• RF Drone Superiority Claim: Операция Z (RF source) amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" video claiming "Rubikon" (Lekka-100 drone) achieves air superiority. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• RF Civilian Casualties (Belgorod): ASTRA (RF source) reports two people were injured in Belgorod Oblast due to drone strikes. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• UAF Deep Strike (Kursk Oblast): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) posts video claiming SSO struck a logistics hub of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade (OBRMPS) in Kursk Oblast. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)
• Geopolitical Speculation (Venezuela): Рыбарь (RF source) posts about forecasts of a possible US invasion of Venezuela. (FACT, RF REPORT)

Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian Sentiment (Confidence: HIGH): Morale is bolstered by the successful counter-offensive in Donetsk and the Salavat deep strike. Public support for the military is strong, evident in crowdfunding for drones. There is ongoing concern for civilian casualties from RF aerial attacks (Konstantinovka) and a determination to resist. Patriotism is reinforced through symbolic displays (Motherland Monument). Morale is also boosted by successful air defense responses (Pavlohrad). Increasing domestic missile production will further boost morale and sense of self-reliance. Continued air alerts, especially on Kyiv, will maintain a state of heightened vigilance but also reinforce resolve against aggression. The ongoing drone attack on Kyiv will undoubtedly heighten public anxiety and fear, but simultaneously reinforce national resolve and support for air defense efforts. Reports of successful interceptions will be crucial for maintaining morale. The successful repelling of the Kyiv drone attack, promptly reported with initial damage assessment limited to debris, will likely boost public morale and reinforce confidence in UAF air defense capabilities. However, continued awareness of the drone threat remains. The Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) video, despite its RF origin, showcases UAF drone effectiveness, which could inadvertently boost UAF morale if widely seen. Public sentiment will be sensitive to reports of the Netherlands' potential exclusion of Ukrainian male refugees from housing, as this could be perceived as a reduction in international support or a discriminatory policy. UAF claims of 1150 RF casualties in 24 hours will boost Ukrainian morale. The IAEA resolution on Zaporizhzhia NPP will be perceived as a diplomatic victory and boost morale. The reported controlled situation in Kryvyi Rih will reassure the local population and project stability. The continued fundraising success for UAF (STERNENKO) is a strong indicator of high public morale and support. The EU's accelerated rejection of Russian LNG (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) will be perceived as a positive development, boosting morale by indicating economic pressure on RF. The reporting of civilian casualties in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia (Stepnohirsk) will likely galvanize public anger and resolve against RF aggression. Disruptions to Kyiv public transport payment systems may cause frustration but also reinforce resolve against RF attacks.
• Russian Sentiment (Confidence: MEDIUM): RF leadership attempts to project high morale and inexhaustible resources (700k troops, Zapad-2025). However, reports of internal unit difficulties (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) and reliance on civilian fundraising (Два майора, Alex Parker Returns) suggest underlying strains. The Alex Parker Returns video of decomposing bodies implies significant losses. The ongoing censorship and suppression of dissent indicate internal vulnerabilities. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ's complaints about fundraising indicate potential public apathy or fatigue within the pro-RF segment. The internal criticism within Alex Parker Returns's post regarding funding sources suggests some public discontent or awareness of corruption. The "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition aims to bolster public sentiment by showcasing heroism. The narrative about a former UAF officer commanding the Kupiansk assault might be intended to boost morale by suggesting insider advantage. The ongoing Kyiv attack will be portrayed by RF IO as a successful retaliation, boosting pro-war sentiment. RF IO attempting to portray international support for Russia (IAEA abstentions) aims to bolster public sentiment. The proposal to increase maternity capital is a direct attempt to bolster public sentiment by projecting state support for families and long-term domestic stability. The RF IO narrative about UAF abandoning NATO weapons and the discussion on salary disparities within Ukraine aim to undermine Ukrainian morale and sow internal discontent, implicitly boosting Russian sentiment by portraying UAF weakness and internal problems. The TASS report on the "terrorist community" responsible for General Kirillov's murder will be used to reinforce a narrative of internal security success and justify actions against alleged enemies, boosting public confidence in RF's ability to maintain order. The Vodolatsky interview, by linking the conflict's resolution to Trump's victory, aims to provide a long-term, potentially optimistic outlook for pro-RF audiences, suggesting external factors (Western politics) will ultimately favor Russia. The RF IO claim of a Croatian citizen surrendering from UAF will be used to demonstrate UAF weakness and further boost RF morale. The Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo message aims to boost morale among RF VDV forces. RF claims of entering Yampil, DNR, will be used to boost domestic morale and project military success.
• RF External IO (Poland): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) reports a channel for transferring Ukrainian draft evaders was blocked in Poland. This will be used to demonstrate perceived Ukrainian weakness and Polish cooperation, potentially boosting Russian sentiment. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• RF Assistance for Frontline: Операция Z (RF source) amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" videos showing donation deliveries for fighters on the Pokrovsk and Dnipropetrovsk fronts. This aims to boost morale by demonstrating public support for frontline troops. (FACT, RF CLAIM - Donation deliveries for RF units)
• RF Air Defense: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) reports RF air defense destroyed 4 enemy UAVs over annexed Crimea overnight. This will boost Russian public confidence in their air defense capabilities. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• US Veto on Gaza Ceasefire: Два майора (RF source) reports the US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution on a Gaza ceasefire. This will be leveraged by RF IO to portray US diplomatic isolation and hypocrisy, potentially impacting international sentiment and indirectly influencing perceptions of the Ukraine conflict. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• Moscow Weather: Новости Москвы reports September 2025 in Moscow will be one of the driest. This is a normalcy narrative, distracting from the conflict and projecting an image of stability. (FACT)
• RF Social Welfare (TASS): "ТАСС" reports Olga Yaroslavskaya, Moscow Children's Rights Commissioner, supported the idea of payments to families with three or more children, proposing it be called "family capital" instead of "father's capital." This is likely to be received positively, boosting domestic morale and projecting state care. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• RF Consumer Spending (Новости Москвы): "Новости Москвы" reports every fifth Russian spends over 40% of income on food. This is an economic reality that could cause public strain if not addressed, potentially impacting morale. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• RF SOF Operations (Vremevsky Direction): "Colonelcassad" posts video claiming the 14th Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade destroyed UAF militants on the Vremevsky direction. This RF IO aims to boost morale by showcasing military effectiveness. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• RF Air Defense Production: ТАСС (RF source) reports the "High-Precision Systems" holding delivered a batch of new "Pantsir-SMD" SAM systems to the RF Armed Forces. This is an IO effort to project military industrial strength. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• RF Mining Policy: ТАСС (RF source) reports the Ministry of Energy does not expect new bans on cryptocurrency mining in RF regions soon. This is a normalcy narrative for domestic audience. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• RF Information Control: ТАСС (RF source) reports the list of Russian services and sites available during mobile network restrictions for security purposes will be updated weekly. This projects state control and competence. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• RF Drone Superiority Claim: Операция Z (RF source) amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" video claiming "Rubikon" (Lekka-100 drone) achieves air superiority. This is a direct IO effort to boost morale and project technological advantage. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• RF Civilian Casualties (Belgorod): ASTRA (RF source) reports two people were injured in Belgorod Oblast due to drone strikes. This will be used by RF IO to portray Ukraine as aggressive and RF citizens as victims. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• Geopolitical Speculation (Venezuela): Рыбарь (RF source) posts about forecasts of a possible US invasion of Venezuela. This is an RF IO attempt to divert attention and portray US aggression globally. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• Israel's Iron Beam (Два майора): "Два майора" posts video claiming Israel's Iron Beam laser air defense system is ready for use this year. This is RF IO reporting on foreign military technology, potentially for comparative purposes or to highlight perceived Western advanced capabilities. (FACT, RF REPORT on foreign military technology).

International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Support for Ukraine (Confidence: HIGH): Continued US military aid (PURL) and high-level engagement with NATO (Umierov-Turner meeting) underscore robust international support. Discussions within the EU about using frozen RF assets for Ukraine indicate sustained financial commitment. Poland's heightened alert (bomb shelter checks) reflects a serious allied posture. The US State Department's approval of Javelin sales to Poland further demonstrates commitment to NATO's eastern flank.
• Diplomatic Engagement: Trump's comments create a complex diplomatic environment, with both UAF and RF IO attempting to leverage his statements. The US veto of the Gaza ceasefire in the UNSC may be used by RF to undermine US credibility internationally. Russia's legal challenge to the MH17 decision at the ICJ is a continuation of their diplomatic efforts to deny responsibility and challenge international judicial processes. Trump's statements on TikTok and China's readiness to finalize a deal indicate ongoing US-China economic and diplomatic activity, which has indirect implications for global stability and thus for Ukraine. TASS reporting on RF economic forecasts and global economic crises will be part of RF's diplomatic messaging. Turkey's interest in BRICS and ASEAN (TASS) indicates a multipolar diplomatic landscape that RF will seek to exploit to undermine Western influence. TASS reports that Washington hopes to agree on the next diplomatic negotiations with Moscow regarding diplomatic missions "when it is convenient for both sides." This indicates a continuation of low-level diplomatic engagement despite active hostilities. RF is actively pursuing financial independence from Western systems through cooperation with China (independent depository). TASS reports on MI6 launching a darknet portal, which is a diplomatic narrative used to portray Western covert aggression. TASS reports on a record number of abstentions at the IAEA conference, which RF will use to claim international backing for its position. Vodolatsky's statements in the TASS interview directly contribute to RF's diplomatic messaging strategy by outlining a long-term political dimension to the conflict's resolution, aiming to influence international perceptions and leverage divisions within Western alliances. TASS reports RF's Pacific Fleet nuclear submarines "Krasnoyarsk" and "Omsk" conducted cruise missile launches in the Okhotsk Sea during exercises, showcasing continued naval readiness and missile capabilities. РБК-Україна reports Russia has appealed the ICAO decision regarding MH17 at the UN Court, which is a continued diplomatic maneuver to challenge international findings. РБК-Україна reports Trump refused military aid to Taiwan for a deal with China. This indicates a potential shift in US foreign policy which could have indirect global implications, impacting geopolitical stability.
• IAEA Resolution: РБК-Україна (UAF source) reports the IAEA General Conference adopted a resolution calling on Russia to return control of the Zaporizhzhia NPP to Ukraine. This represents a diplomatic victory for Ukraine, reinforcing international pressure on Russia. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• US Veto on Gaza Ceasefire: Два майора (RF source) reports the US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution on a Gaza ceasefire. This diplomatic action will be used by RF to portray US diplomatic isolation and hypocrisy on the international stage. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• EU LNG Policy: "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports Bloomberg's statement that the EU plans to reject Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) as quickly as possible. This is a significant diplomatic development, indicating continued international pressure on Russia. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Netherlands Refugee Policy: РБК-Україна reports that the Netherlands is considering excluding Ukrainian male refugees from the housing system. This external development could become a point of diplomatic tension and be exploited by RF to demonstrate disunity in the European response. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Bornholm (RF Allegation): ТАСС reports Russian Ambassador to Denmark, Vladimir Barbin, claimed Bornholm Island is used by Copenhagen to create security threats to Russia, particularly Kaliningrad Oblast. This is a clear RF IO attempt to justify its military posture, demonize NATO, and potentially divert international attention from Ukraine. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• Geopolitical Speculation (Venezuela): Рыбарь (RF source) posts about forecasts of a possible US invasion of Venezuela. This is an RF IO attempt to divert attention and portray US aggression globally. (FACT, RF REPORT)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Capabilities (Confidence: HIGH): RF continues to demonstrate robust ground offensive capabilities on multiple axes, supported by significant artillery and glide bomb resources. They possess advanced FPV drone and reconnaissance UAV capabilities. RF maintains a strong strategic aviation and naval presence, conducting exercises like "Zapad-2025" and "Rubezh 2025." The capability to conduct deep strikes (Salavat refinery implies UAF capability) and high-volume drone attacks is confirmed. RF retains a sophisticated information warfare apparatus capable of multi-layered disinformation campaigns. Their ability to recruit and deploy foreign nationals (Cuban mercenaries, Croatian citizens) and controversial personnel (pardoned criminals) reflects ongoing efforts to augment manpower. RF is adapting its tactics, experimenting with UGVs and attempting urban infiltration. They possess advanced EW capabilities (Orlan-30 drone EW resistance). The reported construction of a new "Shahed" drone launch facility (Bryansk Oblast) indicates growing production capacity for UAVs and an advanced launch posture. RF continues to train allied forces, as evidenced by Wagner's training of Belarusian forces. RF leadership has demonstrated the capability to make high-level personnel changes, as seen with Kozak's release. RF maintains economic stability, as indicated by the Ministry of Finance's budget forecasts. RF has secured a commander for the Kupiansk offensive with prior UAF experience, potentially offering a tactical advantage. RF demonstrates a continued capability for high-intensity, multi-wave drone attacks targeting the capital, specifically Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast. RF continues to demonstrate naval construction capabilities, albeit with significant delays, as evidenced by the launch of the "Strelok" missile boat. This highlights a persistent, long-term effort to maintain and modernize its naval fleet. RF has the capability to intercept and destroy Ukrainian FPV drones, as demonstrated by the Воин DV video and the new Операция Z video from Zaporizhzhia. RF possesses the capability for extensive cyber and information control, as evidenced by Roskomnadzor blocking a large number of fraudulent SIM cards associated with messenger services. This indicates a sophisticated state-level capability to monitor and manipulate digital communication infrastructure. RF's Pacific Fleet demonstrated cruise missile launch capabilities from nuclear submarines, underscoring their strategic naval power projection. China's testing of armed robot dogs (Colonelcassad) demonstrates advancements in unmanned ground systems, which, while not RF capabilities, highlights global trends in military technology that RF may seek to emulate or counter. RF has a demonstrated capability to conduct multi-wave drone attacks, as seen in the overnight attack on Pavlohrad. RF is capable of sustained ground assaults, including the use of incendiary munitions against UAF infantry, as reported in Volchansk. RF has the capability to inflict civilian casualties through precision strikes, as evidenced by the attack on the Stepnohirsk community. RF has the capability to conduct targeted SOF operations, as claimed by Colonelcassad on the Vremevsky direction. RF has demonstrated the capability to develop and field sophisticated air defense systems, as evidenced by Israel's Iron Beam (reported by RF source) which may influence RF's own R&D. RF has delivered a batch of new "Pantsir-SMD" SAM systems, indicating continued modernization of air defense capabilities. RF has demonstrated surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities using drones, as seen with the "Rubikon" video. RF has shown the ability to inflict civilian casualties in Belgorod Oblast through drone strikes. UAF SSO has demonstrated deep strike capability against RF logistics hubs in Kursk Oblast.

• Intentions (Confidence: HIGH): RF intends to maintain offensive pressure on key axes (Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia) to achieve territorial gains and attrit UAF forces. They aim to degrade Ukrainian critical infrastructure (energy, railways) through persistent aerial attacks. RF intends to continue robust information warfare to sow discord, demoralize UAF, and undermine international support. They will leverage geopolitical events and Western internal divisions for IO. RF also intends to protect its internal security and project an strong image of stability. The continuation of large-scale military exercises (Zapad-2025) indicates intent for sustained long-term military readiness and projection of power. RF intends to continue targeting UAF heavy artillery, as evidenced by the Konstantinovka M109A5 strike. RF appears to be increasing pressure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, as claimed by Воин DV. RF intends to project internal unity and strong leadership (MoD Russia's "Top News Today"). Russia's challenge to the ICAO decision on MH17 at the ICJ indicates an intention to continue challenging international legal frameworks and deny accountability. The "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition indicates an intent to sustain public support and morale for the conflict. RF's new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast signals an intention to increase aerial pressure on northern Ukraine. RF will continue to leverage historical narratives, as reported in the new message "Two majors", to promote national unity and justify current actions. RF intends to sustain and potentially escalate aerial pressure on Kyiv, likely as a retaliatory measure for the Salavat deep strike, and to inflict psychological impact and further degrade air defense systems. The ongoing drone attack on Kyiv confirms this immediate intention. RF intends to maintain its long-term naval modernization program (Project 12418 missile boats). RF intends to circumvent Western financial sanctions through cooperation with China (independent depository). RF will continue to leverage international forums and IO (IAEA abstentions, MI6 darknet portal, derisive comments about Kyiv attacks) to project international support, demonize Western intelligence, and demoralize Ukrainians. RF intends to develop and implement social support programs (e.g., increased maternity capital) to project state care and address demographic challenges, bolstering long-term internal stability amidst the conflict. RF intends to maintain its counter-UAV capabilities and operations against Ukrainian drones. RF intends to maintain and enhance its control over the domestic information environment and communications, likely to counter internal dissent and foreign influence, as indicated by Roskomnadzor's actions. RF intends to continue pursuing and prosecuting individuals it deems responsible for internal "terrorist" acts, as seen in the General Kirillov murder case. RF intends to shape international perceptions of the conflict's duration and resolution, leveraging Western political dynamics, as expressed in the Vodolatsky interview. RF intends to continue challenging international legal decisions, as seen in their appeal against the MH17 ruling at the UN Court. RF intends to continue showcasing its strategic naval and missile capabilities through exercises. RF's daily "Chronicle of the SMO" by Рыбарь confirms their intention to maintain a consistent narrative regarding ongoing operations. RF intends to leverage any perceived vulnerabilities in the Netherlands' refugee policy to further its IO goals, portraying a lack of Western unity or support for Ukraine. RF intends to continue framing NATO as an aggressor, as seen in the Ambassador's comments regarding Bornholm. RF intends to exploit the perception of UAF abandoning NATO weapons to demoralize UAF forces and boost RF morale. RF intends to demonstrate control over annexed territories and project defensive capability, as seen in the RF Air Defense reports from Crimea. RF intends to maintain a consistent narrative of providing essential supplies to its frontline units, as seen in the "Военкоры Русской Весны" videos. RF intends to engage in psychological warfare and attrition against UAF personnel by deploying booby traps, as described by the RF demining group commander. RF intends to continue using high-volume drone attacks, as demonstrated by the overnight assault on Pavlohrad, to overwhelm UAF air defenses and strike infrastructure. RF intends to press ground assaults in Volchansk, likely seeking to attrit UAF forces and secure localized gains, employing incendiary munitions. RF intends to inflict civilian casualties and damage infrastructure in areas like Zaporizhzhia Oblast through aerial attacks. RF intends to use social welfare policies (e.g., family capital) to bolster domestic support and project state care. RF intends to leverage the US veto on the Gaza ceasefire to portray US diplomatic isolation and hypocrisy. RF intends to showcase its military industrial complex capabilities by announcing new SAM system deliveries. RF intends to maintain the current regulatory framework for cryptocurrency mining, signaling a degree of internal economic stability. RF intends to control information access during mobile network restrictions, reinforcing state control and security. RF intends to project air superiority through drone operations, as claimed by "Rubikon." RF intends to portray UAF as aggressive by reporting civilian casualties from drone strikes in Belgorod. RF intends to monitor and comment on broader geopolitical events, such as a possible US invasion of Venezuela, to demonstrate its global awareness and influence.

• Courses of Action (Confidence: HIGH):

  • Ground: Sustained ground offensives on Kupiansk-Lyman, Southern Donetsk (Novoivanovka), Pokrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia (Kamyanske, Plavni) axes, with attempts at localized encirclements and urban combat. Continued use of combined arms, FPV drones, and possibly unconventional infiltration tactics. Counter-DRG operations (e.g., against "Baba Yaga" drones) will continue. The use of a former UAF officer to command the Kupiansk assault suggests an intent to exploit specific knowledge of UAF defenses and vulnerabilities. RF claims of advances near Kucherovka and Petropavlovka in the Kupiansk sector indicate an immediate continuation of localized ground offensives. Concurrently, RF will intensify ground operations in Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, utilizing incendiary munitions and drone support against UAF infantry. RF will push for a rapid breakthrough or envelopment of Yampil, DNR, capitalizing on claimed initial entry. RF will also continue to utilize mine warfare and booby traps, as reported in Zaporizhzhia, to inflict casualties and psychological impact on UAF ground forces. RF SOF units will continue localized operations to destroy UAF militants, as claimed on the Vremevsky direction.
  • Aerial: High-volume drone and missile attacks targeting critical infrastructure, particularly energy and railway networks, with a continued willingness to use guided aerial bombs on civilian targets (e.g., Konstantinovka). Expect retaliatory strikes for UAF deep strikes. Continued drone activity towards Pavlohrad, and now, significantly, increased drone threats to Kyiv from Chernihiv and Bryansk Oblasts. The newly reported Shahed launch facility in Bryansk Oblast indicates a potential for increased drone volume and shorter flight times to northern Ukraine. The immediate high-volume drone attack against Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast has just concluded. While the immediate aerial threat to Kyiv has passed, the persistent pattern of high-volume drone and missile attacks dictates that RF will likely launch another large-scale aerial campaign within 24-48 hours, targeting critical infrastructure across Ukraine, potentially including Kyiv again. RF will continue FPV drone operations, including anti-UAV missions, in contested airspace. RF will continue targeted drone attacks on cities like Pavlohrad, likely to degrade air defenses and disrupt logistical hubs. RF will continue to project air defense successes over annexed territories, such as Crimea, to reassure its population and demonstrate control. RF will continue aerial attacks causing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, as seen in the latest reports. RF will seek to disrupt payment systems in Kyiv public transport through aerial attacks. RF will deploy new Pantsir-SMD SAM systems to enhance its air defense, particularly against UAF drones and missiles, and potentially in forward combat zones. RF will conduct drone reconnaissance and surveillance missions, as observed with the "Rubikon" (Lekka-100) drone, particularly over agricultural areas. RF will continue to launch drone strikes into Belgorod Oblast, risking civilian casualties, potentially as a retaliatory measure or to assert control over border regions.
  • Hybrid/IO: Intensified disinformation campaigns focusing on UAF disorganization, corruption, and internal divisions (e.g., the alleged GUR vs. President's Office conflict, the former UAF brigadier general commanding the Kupiansk assault). Amplification of RF internal security successes and alleged UAF atrocities. Leveraging any Western political statements or domestic issues to sow discord. RF will actively attempt to discredit UAF external support by claiming internal corruption or illicit dealings (e.g., Rostec servicing UAF helicopters). They will continue to challenge international legal decisions (e.g., MH17) to undermine international consensus against them. RF will leverage high-level personnel changes (Kozak's dismissal) to project an image of effective governance and adapt its internal narratives. RF IO will continue to monitor and leverage international political statements (e.g., Trump's comments on TikTok, China, and ceasefire, Taiwan aid) to shape global perceptions. RF will also leverage internal economic news (e.g., budget forecasts) to project stability, and portray Western economies as facing crisis (e.g., Business Insider report). The "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition is an ongoing IO effort to reinforce patriotism and military heroism. RF IO will continue to promote the rehabilitation of historical figures like Stalin to unify narratives. RF will use ambiguous or pre-emptive messaging (e.g., "Timely Terrorist Attack" video) to create confusion or prepare for false flag operations. RF will continue to attempt to distract from the conflict by promoting narratives of normalcy within Russia (e.g., iPhone launch, S7 uniforms). RF will amplify any Western statements (e.g., Trump's "no ceasefire" stance) that appear to align with RF's position of strength. RF will also use external geopolitical developments (e.g., Turkey's interest in BRICS/ASEAN) to project a shifting global alignment away from Western dominance. RF IO is attempting to create alternative narratives (e.g., "boat with 60 drug addicts" by Рыбарь) to distract or misdirect from current events, potentially attempting to counter UAF successes or deflect from RF actions. RF diplomatic channels are open for discussion with the US regarding diplomatic missions, implying an intention to maintain low-level communication despite military conflict. RF IO will continue to promote narratives of international support for Russia (IAEA abstentions) and portray Western intelligence as aggressive (MI6 darknet portal). RF IO will proactively promote social welfare initiatives (e.g., increased maternity capital, family capital) to project state care and domestic stability, aiming to bolster public trust and support for the government and its policies, including the war effort. RF IO will also promote internal narratives regarding military and civilian salary disparities, portraying UAF personnel as potentially exploited or facing significant psychological tolls (Операция Z message). RF will continue to undermine international support for Ukraine, as seen in the TASS claim of UAF abandoning NATO weapons in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Roskomnadzor's actions to block fraudulent SIM cards will be leveraged by RF IO to project effective internal security and control over digital communications. RF IO will intensify narratives around internal security and "terrorism," leveraging cases like the General Kirillov murder to justify state actions and portray Ukraine as a source of instability. RF IO will actively use statements from figures like Vodolatsky to shape narratives about the conflict's duration and resolution, specifically linking it to Western political developments (e.g., US elections) to manage expectations and maintain domestic support for a protracted conflict. RF will continue its legal challenges against international decisions (MH17 appeal) to undermine international consensus and deny accountability. Colonelcassad's video showcasing China's robot dog firing an RPG, while not RF action, presents a powerful visual that RF IO could leverage to promote the idea of rapid technological advancement by its allies or potential future threats to UAF, serving as psychological warfare. RF IO will leverage Trump's alleged refusal of military aid to Taiwan to highlight perceived US geopolitical shifts and potential weakening of US alliances (РБК-Україна). ТАСС's video on the captured Croatian citizen from UAF will be extensively used for IO, focusing on foreign national involvement and UAF disorganization. Рыбарь's daily situation summary, "Chronicle of the SMO for September 18," will be a key RF IO product, controlling the overall narrative of events. RF IO will exploit reports of the Netherlands' potential exclusion of Ukrainian male refugees from housing to sow discord and undermine confidence in Western support for Ukraine. RF IO will amplify geopolitical accusations, leveraging claims such as Denmark using Bornholm to threaten Kaliningrad, to justify their own military build-up and operations. RF IO will amplify claims of successful entry into Yampil, DNR, to project military success and progress. RF IO will leverage the "Два майора" video from Nesterianka, portraying intense UAF attacks on RF positions, to highlight RF resilience and the ferocity of the fighting, potentially justifying future RF actions. RF IO will attempt to downplay or counter UAF claims of 1150 RF casualties in the last 24 hours. RF IO will promote narratives of internal stability and counter alleged channels for draft evaders, as seen in reports from Poland. RF IO will exploit the US veto on the Gaza ceasefire to portray US diplomatic isolation and hypocrisy. RF IO will continue to use normalcy narratives (e.g., Moscow weather, consumer spending reports) to distract from the conflict. RF IO will leverage exhibitions of Chinese police technology to indirectly project technological advancement or potential future capabilities. RF IO will amplify claims of successful SOF operations, such as on the Vremevsky direction, to boost morale and project military effectiveness. RF IO will reinforce the message that the Ministry of Energy does not expect new cryptocurrency mining bans, aiming to portray economic stability. RF IO will emphasize the weekly updates of available Russian services during mobile network restrictions to showcase state control and citizen support. RF IO will continue to claim air superiority through drone footage, as seen with "Rubikon." RF IO will use reports of civilian casualties in Belgorod to portray Ukraine as aggressive and RF citizens as victims. RF IO will engage in geopolitical speculation, as seen with the Venezuela invasion forecasts, to divert attention and portray US aggression.
  • Strategic Naval Drills: RF will conduct further naval exercises demonstrating long-range cruise missile capabilities. The documented launches by the Pacific Fleet's nuclear submarines ("Krasnoyarsk" and "Omsk") using "Onyx" and "Granit" missiles in the Okhotsk Sea during exercises is an immediate example of this COA.
  • Asymmetric: Continued deep strikes into RF territory (e.g., Salavat refinery, SSO strike on Kursk logistics hub) against industrial and logistical targets by UAF. RF will respond with intensified aerial campaigns.

• Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

  • RF urban infiltration tactics (via gas pipes) in Kupiansk.
  • Deployment of "Kurier" and "Fagot" UGVs.
  • Alleged use of civilian clothing for disguise and human shields in Yampil assault.
  • Increased claims of targeting UAF M109A5 howitzers using FPV drones and artillery in coordinated strikes.
  • Development of polyamide nets to neutralize loitering munitions.
  • Increased focus on identifying and neutralizing UAF DRGs, particularly those utilizing heavy drones ("Baba Yaga" type), on the Dnieper axis.
  • Allegations of RF-affiliated entities (Rostec) indirectly providing maintenance support to UAF helicopters, if true, indicate potential covert logistical channels or deliberate economic opportunism.
  • RF has established a new "Shahed" drone launch facility near Ukraine in Bryansk Oblast, indicating a tactical adaptation to sustain or increase drone attack capabilities, particularly against northern Ukraine.
  • RF is using a former UAF brigadier general to command the Kupiansk assault, which is a tactical adaptation to exploit specific knowledge of UAF defenses and vulnerabilities.
  • The naval industry's ability to complete long-delayed projects (missile boats) signals an adaptation to long-term resource constraints and modernization goals, potentially impacting future maritime capabilities. RF FPV drone operators are actively being used to intercept Ukrainian UAVs, suggesting a tactical adaptation to counter UAF drone superiority. The testing of armed robot dogs by China (Colonelcassad) highlights an emerging military technology that could be adopted by RF, representing a potential tactical adaptation for future ground combat, offering mobile fire support or reconnaissance. RF is using captured foreign nationals (e.g., the claimed Croatian citizen) for propaganda and potentially HUMINT purposes, indicating a tactical adaptation to exploit UAF weaknesses. RF is deploying intense, coordinated artillery and drone barrages against UAF positions, as evidenced by the "Два майора" video from Nesterianka. RF continues to employ mine warfare and booby traps, as reported by TASS, indicating an adaptation to attrit UAF personnel and instill psychological fear. RF is using incendiary munitions in ground assaults, as reported in Volchansk, as a tactical adaptation to clear fortified positions or demoralize UAF infantry. RF is deploying new Pantsir-SMD SAM systems, indicating an adaptation to enhance air defense capabilities. RF is conducting drone reconnaissance using its "Rubikon" (Lekka-100) drones, an adaptation for enhanced battlefield awareness.

• Logistics and Sustainment Status:

  • RF continues to resupply forces on multiple axes, indicated by sustained offensive operations. Railway infrastructure within Ukraine remains a target, but the extent of disruption to RF logistics is unclear. RF continues to recruit personnel through financial incentives and controversial methods (pardoned criminals), suggesting a need to sustain manpower. Public fundraising for "Front-line armor" by "Два майора" suggests some reliance on civilian support for equipment, though this is likely supplementary. Военкор Котенок's report about a deficit of medics at the front indicates potential strain on RF medical sustainment capabilities, especially relevant for prolonged, high-intensity offensives. Alex Parker Returns's video of a logistics truck in a damaged village confirms ongoing forward logistics operations, likely facing harsh conditions. The proposal for new "contributions from restaurant checks for SVO needs" (Alex Parker Returns) suggests a continuing reliance on alternative or supplementary funding for military needs, indicating potential strain on official budgets or a desire to broaden public involvement. Military police of the Western Group of Forces are reported to be assisting farmers in LNR, indicating resource allocation to maintain basic economic functions in occupied territories, potentially leveraging military assets. Ongoing naval construction, despite delays, indicates a long-term industrial sustainment effort for high-value military assets. RF's pursuit of independent financial depositories suggests a strategic move to ensure long-term economic sustainment against Western sanctions. RF is relying on civilian donations for critical supplies such as medical equipment and radios for units on the Pokrovsk and Dnipropetrovsk fronts, suggesting potential gaps in official military logistics, as shown in the "Военкоры Русской Весны" videos. RF claims that the Ministry of Energy does not expect new cryptocurrency mining bans indicates a stable energy supply for this industry, potentially freeing up other energy resources for military use or reducing domestic energy strain.

• Command and Control Effectiveness (Confidence: HIGH): RF maintains operational cohesion across multiple axes. Putin's involvement in "Zapad-2025" and meetings with Duma leaders (Два майора) suggest high-level political engagement with military operations. RF is reportedly enhancing C2 networks in key offensive areas like Krasnoarmeysk. The resignation of Dmitry Kozak and extension of General Gerasimov's term (previous report) indicate high-level continuity and political-military alignment. The incident with the Lviv wiretap (previous report) suggests persistent RF intelligence efforts to compromise UAF C2. The dismissal of Kozak, while a high-level personnel change, is presented as a controlled administrative decision by RF IO. The claim of a former UAF officer commanding the Kupiansk assault, if true, suggests RF is leveraging specific expertise for improved tactical C2. The coordinated drone attack on Kyiv and ongoing naval construction efforts suggest RF maintains effective operational C2, capable of directing multi-domain operations. Roskomnadzor's actions to block fraudulent SIM cards indicate a concerted effort to maintain control over communication channels, which is crucial for effective military and state-level C2, especially in an information warfare environment. The accusations in the General Kirillov murder case, specifically "organizing a terrorist community," demonstrate RF's capability to apply severe legal and security measures, reinforcing state control and C2 authority. The successful missile launches by RF nuclear submarines, as part of exercises, indicate effective C2 over strategic naval assets. The successful multi-wave drone attack on Pavlohrad indicates effective RF C2 for coordinated aerial operations. The continued ground assaults in Volchansk suggest effective tactical C2 at the regimental level. The coordination required for targeted attacks on civilian infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts also indicates effective C2. RF SOF operations on the Vremevsky direction suggest effective C2 for specialized units. The delivery of new Pantsir-SMD systems indicates effective C2 over the military-industrial complex and procurement. The "Rubikon" drone's claimed air superiority, if accurate, suggests effective C2 for tactical drone operations. The reported drone strikes in Belgorod, whether retaliatory or not, indicate C2 over tactical air assets. The UAF SSO strike on the 810th OBRMP logistics hub in Kursk indicates a temporary RF C2 failure in logistics protection.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (Confidence: HIGH):

• UAF maintains a generally defensive posture but is capable of localized counter-offensives (e.g., Pankivka, Zarichne, Dobropillya-Pokrovsk sector). Readiness is high across key axes, demonstrated by repelling numerous RF assaults. Units like the 77th Airmobile Brigade, 6th Azov Battalion, 1st Assault Regiment, "Shadow" unit, STRIKS unit, Mykolaiv marines' "VARTOVI" battalion, and 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" are actively engaged and demonstrating effectiveness.
• UAF is actively integrating tactical drones (FPV, thermal) for ISR, precision strikes, and night operations, with a significant scale-up anticipated (1000 interceptor drones daily). Ukraine is also increasing domestic missile production, with 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month, aiming for 7 daily.
• Personnel mobilization and welfare are ongoing priorities, with efforts to combat corruption within the TCC system and support for POW/MIA families and mental health services.
• Strategic deep strike capability has been demonstrated against the Salavat petrochemical complex, extending UAF's operational reach.
• UAF maintains vigilance against RF's international legal maneuvers, as evidenced by monitoring Russia's challenge to the MH17 decision.
• UAF Air Defense is actively engaged in defending Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast against an ongoing RF drone attack, demonstrating high readiness and effectiveness. UAF Air Defense successfully repelled the recent drone attack on Kyiv, neutralizing incoming UAVs, as confirmed by all-clear reports and preliminary damage assessments (ASTRA, КМВА, РБК-Україна). This demonstrates sustained high readiness and effective tactical control.
• High-level diplomatic engagement with NATO, as evidenced by the meeting between Rustem Umierov and Patrick Turner, confirms a robust commitment to securing Ukraine's long-term security guarantees and integration into Western defense structures.
• Kryvyi Rih Situation: Олександр Вілкул (UAF source) reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of the morning of 19.09.25. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Pavlohrad Drone Attack: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (UAF source) reports RF massively attacked Pavlohrad with drones overnight. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• General Staff Update (UAF Report): "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" provides operational information as of 08:00, 19.09.25, stating UAF repelled 10 enemy assaults in the Southern Slobozhansky direction (Staromayorske district), 8 in the Orikhiv direction (Robotyne, Verkhnya Tersa, Novodanylivka, Stepnohirska communities), and 1 in the Kherson direction (Krynyk). UAF confirmed 70 combat engagements over the past day. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Fundraising: "STERNENKO" reports collecting an additional 8 million UAH for the UAF yesterday. This indicates strong public support and UAF's ability to leverage it. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• IAEA Resolution: РБК-Україна (UAF source) reports the IAEA General Conference adopted a resolution calling on Russia to return control of the Zaporizhzhia NPP to Ukraine. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• EU LNG Policy: "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports Bloomberg's statement that the EU plans to reject Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) as quickly as possible. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Deep Strike (Kursk Oblast): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) posts video claiming SSO struck a logistics hub of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade (OBRMPS) in Kursk Oblast. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)

Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes:
  • Successful UAF counter-offensive in the Dobropillya-Pokrovsk area, liberating 160 sq km and 7 settlements, and inflicting significant RF casualties (100 POWs, 2500+ casualties).
  • Successful deep strike on the Salavat petrochemical complex in Bashkortostan.
  • Successful defense against RF "pincer" maneuver near Dobropillya by the 1st Assault Regiment.
  • Repelling numerous RF assaults on Kramatorsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Kherson, Kursk, and North Slobozhansky directions. UAF General Staff reports repelling 10 enemy assaults in the Southern Slobozhansky direction, 8 in the Orikhiv direction, and 1 in the Kherson direction.
  • Destruction of an RF Buk-M2 SAM system by the 15th Separate Artillery Reconnaissance Brigade "Black Forest."
  • Successful FPV drone strikes by various units (Azov, Shadow, STRIKS, 1st Assault Battalion, Mykolaiv marines, 414th UAV Brigade) on RF personnel, positions, and equipment. The new Операция Z video from Zaporizhzhia showcasing UAF drone strikes on RF equipment reinforces this. The "Два майора" video, while posted by RF, visually confirms intense UAF artillery and drone activity against RF positions in Nesterianka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating effective UAF localized offensive/defensive capabilities.
  • Successful internal security operations: detention of Novinsky (RPC curator), SBU detention of RF agent, exposure of corruption in military medical commissions.
  • Confirmation of first US PURL weapons delivery.
  • Successful body exchange, returning 1000 fallen servicemen.
  • Successful air defense against drone attacks on Pavlohrad.
  • Increased domestic missile production of "Flamingo" missiles.
  • Continued high-level engagement with NATO on security guarantees.
  • UAF Air Defense successfully neutralized the latest RF drone attack on Kyiv, with preliminary reports indicating all incoming UAVs were shot down. Damage to the trolleybus network in Shevchenkivskyi district was caused by falling debris from a downed UAV (ASTRA). This represents a tactical success in defending the capital from direct drone impacts. A UAV was shot down over Kyiv overnight, with debris falling in multiple locations, as confirmed by KMVA, indicating continued effective air defense. UAF reported neutralizing an additional 1150 RF personnel in the last 24 hours. UAF successfully shot down 48 of 75 RF UAVs launched overnight. UAF secured an IAEA resolution calling for RF to return control of the Zaporizhzhia NPP. Kryvyi Rih remains controlled by UAF forces. UAF secured 8 million UAH in donations, demonstrating strong public support. UAF achieved a diplomatic success with the EU's planned rejection of Russian LNG. UAF SSO conducted a successful deep strike against an RF logistics hub in Kursk Oblast.
• Setbacks:
  • Sustained heavy RF pressure on multiple axes (Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia), forcing UAF to commit new groups. UAF General Staff reports 70 combat engagements over the past day, indicating continued heavy pressure.
  • Lethal RF guided aerial bomb strike on Konstantinovka residential area (5 killed, 19 injured), and drone strikes on civilian infrastructure across multiple oblasts. RF aerial attacks on Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, including injury to a 74-year-old in Stepnohirsk and disruptions in Kyiv public transport payment systems, represent continued setbacks for civilian protection and infrastructure.
  • Ongoing issues with corruption in mobilization system (military medical commissions).
  • Russian forces reportedly entering and consolidating in residential areas of Kupiansk (Deep State amplified by RF).
  • Reports of an RF FPV drone and artillery strike destroying a UAF M109A5 howitzer near Konstantinovka (Colonelcassad).
  • Reports of RF ground activity by "CENTER" and "VOSTOK" groups in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Воин DV).
  • Continued heavy RF aerial activity, including threats to Kyiv from Chernihiv and potentially the newly identified Bryansk launch site. Damage to the trolleybus network in Shevchenkivskyi district due to falling drone debris can be considered a minor localized setback, indicating that while direct impacts were averted, the defensive actions themselves can cause collateral damage.
  • RF claims (unverified) of UAF forces abandoning NATO weapons in Zaporizhzhia Oblast during retreat, if true, would represent a tactical setback in terms of equipment retention and troop morale. TASS claims RF forces advanced near Kucherovka and Petropavlovka, clearing a tree line and destroying a UAF fortified area, which, if verified, would represent a localized setback for UAF in the Kupiansk sector. The RF claim of entering Yampil, DNR, if verified, represents a significant localized territorial setback. RF's mine warfare tactics in Zaporizhzhia Oblast pose a persistent threat to UAF assault teams. RF successfully conducted a mass drone attack on Pavlohrad. RF ground forces using incendiary munitions against UAF infantry in Volchansk poses a significant tactical challenge and risk of further casualties. RF SOF operations on the Vremevsky direction also pose a threat to UAF personnel. RF drone strikes resulted in two injuries in Belgorod Oblast.
• Resource Requirements and Constraints:
  • Requirements: Continued air defense assets (especially counter-UAV and anti-glide bomb capabilities), advanced ISR platforms, FPV drones, artillery ammunition, and medical supplies (given reported RF medical deficit). Sustainment of international military and financial aid, including Javelin missiles for Poland, which indirectly strengthens NATO's eastern flank. Continued increase in domestic missile production.
  • Constraints: High operational tempo and persistent RF aerial attacks place a strain on air defense resources. Manpower constraints necessitate efficient recruitment and retention strategies. The ongoing threat of cyberattacks demands robust cyber defense. The reported corruption in military medical commissions highlights a constraint on effective personnel mobilization. The ongoing drone attack on Kyiv underscores the continuous high demand for air defense munitions and operational capacity, potentially constraining resources for other sectors. The need for rapid damage assessment and repair of urban infrastructure (e.g., trolleybus network, Kyiv public transport payment systems) following drone attacks adds a minor but ongoing constraint on civilian resources and potentially sums some military-technical support. RF's mine warfare tactics further constrain UAF movement and require specialized demining resources.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (Confidence: HIGH):

• RF Narratives: RF is actively attempting to discredit UAF's counter-offensive success in Donetsk, downplay its own losses, and amplify any perceived UAF setbacks or disorganization. They are aggressively using the Konstantinovka civilian casualties and the 1000:24 body exchange ratio (highly exaggerated) to paint a picture of UAF failure and RF military prowess. RF IO is leveraging Trump's statements to sow confusion and portray Western disunity on Ukraine support, particularly his "Putin let me down" and "terrible relations between Putin and Zelenskyy" comments. They are attempting to link rising antisemitism in Europe to broader societal decay (Flensburg incident) to deflect from their own actions. RF is also using narratives of internal RF stability and normalcy (Kamchatka earthquake, civilian fundraising efforts for armor) to mask the impact of the war. They actively promote their military technology and manpower (700k troops). RF will use the US Gaza ceasefire veto to portray the US as hypocritical. Alex Parker Returns's claim of Rostec structures servicing UAF helicopters is a new, subtle IO attempt to sow distrust and imply corruption or collaboration. Colonelcassad's video of UAF DRG destruction aims to project RF defensive successes and UAF losses. Colonelcassad's promotion of Wagner training in Belarus aims to enhance the image of RF military capability and expertise. RF continues to challenge international decisions (MH17) to portray itself as a victim of international bias. MoD Russia's "Top News Today" serves as a general IO effort to control the daily narrative. The ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ channel's complaints about a low-participation fundraising marathon might inadvertently reveal internal strains within some pro-RF volunteer networks, but is framed as a call for more support. ТАСС reports Putin released Kozak from his position as Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration. RF IO will likely frame this as a routine or positive administrative change to reinforce an image of strong, decisive leadership. Alex Parker Returns's post on "contributions from restaurant checks for SVO needs" is an IO effort to promote public support for the war, while also subtly criticizing perceived resource allocation disparities, possibly aimed at internal dissent. Новости Москвы's video about S7 Airlines' new uniforms and TASS's report on Trump's TikTok statements are examples of RF IO attempting to project normalcy, economic stability, and engagement with international issues unrelated to the conflict, as a distraction. Colonelcassad posts a photo message quoting Trump saying it is "not the time to ask Putin for a ceasefire," which RF IO will amplify to project RF strength and an unwavering stance. Minister of Finance Siluanov's statement on an expected 12-13% key rate for the 2026 budget indicates continued focus on economic stability messaging. Операция Z amplifies a Business Insider report predicting a world crisis in 2026, which RF IO will likely leverage to portray Western economic instability. Colonelcassad posts videos and images from the "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition, promoting RF military heroism and displaying destroyed enemy equipment (unattributed to specific units). "Военкоры Русской Весны" (amplified by Операция Z) claims a former UAF officer who defected in 2014 is commanding the Russian offensive on Kupiansk, a narrative that RF will leverage to sow discord within UAF. RF IO is actively disseminating content (Операция Z) that claims "shooting and explosions" in Kyiv, aiming to amplify the psychological impact of the drone attack and generate panic or demoralization among the Ukrainian population. Рыбарь's recent message (🇺🇸🇻🇪Вы думаете, это реально оказалась по итогу лодка с 60-тью наркосами?) could be a diversionary tactic to draw attention away from the Kyiv attack and other RF military actions. ТАСС reports that the "Fair Russia — For Truth" party proposes to increase maternity capital for a second child to 1 million rubles and for a third to 1.5 million rubles. This is RF IO aimed at boosting internal morale and addressing demographic challenges, projecting stability and state care. Операция Z reports on a man discussing salary disparities between military and civilian personnel in Ukraine. This is an RF IO attempt to sow discord, highlight perceived economic hardship, and potentially portray military service as economically unviable or emotionally taxing in Ukraine. ТАСС reports Roskomnadzor (Russian federal service for supervision in the sphere of communications) blocked over 70,000 fraudulent SIM cards using internal systems of the domestic messenger Max. This is an RF IO effort to project effective internal security and control over digital communications, likely to reassure the public and potentially to signal greater control over information flow. TASS reports that individuals involved in the murder of General Kirillov have been accused of organizing a terrorist community. This is an RF IO message to project internal security and control. TASS reports an interview with Viktor Vodolatsky, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee for CIS Affairs, Eurasian Integration, and Relations with Compatriots, stating that the settlement process in Ukraine could drag on until Trump's victory over the "deep state." This is a significant RF IO effort to leverage perceived Western internal divisions and to project a long-term, politically-influenced conflict resolution timeline favorable to RF. The video also features nationalistic rhetoric, emphasizing Russian historical resilience and asserting confidence in Russia's eventual victory and reclaiming of historical lands. This reinforces a narrative of historical destiny and inevitable triumph. РБК-Україна posts a photo message stating Russia has appealed the ICAO decision regarding MH17 at the UN Court. This is a continuation of RF's legal and information warfare to deny responsibility. ТАСС posts a video claiming a Croatian citizen, who recently obtained Russian citizenship, surrendered to Russian FPV drone operators in Zaporizhzhia Oblast while serving with UAF. This is an RF IO attempt to demonstrate UAF disorganization and RF success. Рыбарь posts a daily situation summary, "Chronicle of the SMO for September 18," indicating continued structured RF information dissemination.
• UAF Narratives: Emphasis on repelling RF assaults, successful deep strikes (Salavat refinery, Buk-M2), and the capture of RF personnel (425th Regiment "Skelya", "STRIKS" unit successes, border guard strikes, SBU agent detention, Kharkiv spotter detention, 35th Combined Arms Army casualties list) reinforces UAF's fighting capability and resolve. Zelenskyy's report of successful counter-offensive in Donetsk Oblast, including liberated territory and significant RF casualties, is a major boost to this narrative. The active public fundraising for advanced FPV drones ("best drones to work with") is a key part of this narrative. Reconnaissance personnel are highlighted as key to victory. The destroyed Poltava monument helicopter also serves as a symbol of resilience. UAF artillery displaying adaptability and continuous operation also reinforces this. President Zelenskyy's direct engagement with frontline units in Donetsk Oblast and the 82nd Air Assault Brigade command post further supports this narrative. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts reinforcing soldier morale. The 1st Assault Regiment's success near Dobropillya reinforces this. President Zelenskyy meeting with 79th Air Assault Brigade soldiers directly supports the narrative of resilience and success, highlighting specific unit involvement in current operations. The arrival of US PURL weapons is a strong narrative for continued international support and UAF capabilities. The Presidential Brigade of UAF posts a video showcasing night combat operations, emphasizing vigilance and effectiveness. Dnipropetrovsk ODA Head visiting emergency medical services championship highlights preparedness and resilience in the face of attacks. Zaporizhzhia ODA posts about evacuating young footballers, highlighting humanitarian efforts amidst conflict. "Підрозділ Shadow" posts video of successful drone strikes on RF shelters, reinforcing UAF precision strike capabilities. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts video of the UAF 1st Assault Battalion holding its front line in Zaporizhzhia and destroying enemy forces with FPV drones, confirming UAF effectiveness and morale. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts video of the "STRIKS" unit's FPV drone successes on the Southern Slobozhansky direction, further confirming advanced tactical drone integration. Олександр Вілкул posts a briefing detailing the transfer of 10 DJI Matrice 4T quadcopters to the 77th Airmobile Brigade. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a photo message featuring a drone with the caption "Дальність? Вітер? Борт заармовано?" (Range? Wind? Board armed?), indicating UAF's technical focus on drone operations. The "VARTOVI" unmanned systems battalion and 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" are actively demonstrating effective drone operations. Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement about Ukraine using 1000 interceptor drones daily indicates an immediate and significant scaling of UAF counter-UAV capabilities. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts multiple photo messages showcasing a tactical screen with telemetry data. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement that Ukraine will use 1000 interceptor drones per day in the near future, indicating a strategic shift towards large-scale counter-UAV operations. Ukraine is producing 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month and aims for 7 missiles daily by year-end, which will be leveraged to project growing domestic defense capabilities. Documenting casualties (Konstantinovka КАБ strike killing 5 civilians), damage to civilian infrastructure (Nizhyn, Zaporizhzhia), and war crimes allegations (exhumation videos, Donetsk displacement photos) aims to highlight RF atrocities and maintain international support. The opening of a memorial alley in Zaporizhzhia directly reinforces the narrative of sacrifice and remembrance. Demining efforts highlight UAF efforts to protect civilians. Dnipropetrovsk ODA reporting КАБ and drone strikes on civilian communities highlights RF aggression and humanitarian impact. Renewed air alerts in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast are implicitly used to highlight ongoing RF aggression against civilian areas. Reports on investigations into TCC officials and high-level fraud, recent corruption busts in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the investigation into a pro-Russian judge, the detention of Novinsky (RPC curator), and the uncovering of an organized gambling network in Kyiv demonstrate commitment to transparency and good governance. Prosecution of an FSB officer for war crimes. Life sentence for an FSB officer who brutally treated civilians in Kherson Oblast demonstrates accountability for war crimes. Exposure of a human trafficking ring led by a PRC citizen. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the conviction of a "Rashist" who oversaw the "Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation" during the occupation of Kherson, which serves to project UAF's commitment to justice and accountability. Zelenskyy's statements confirming successful operations on RF territory and the impact on the RF fuel sector highlight UAF's growing asymmetrical capabilities. Highlighting security cooperation agreements with partners like Greece and the new drone cooperation agreement with Poland, including a joint operational group. New military aid from Ireland. Poland checking bomb shelters also indirectly signals allied seriousness about RF threats. РБК-Україна reporting Starmer's commitment to help Ukraine with Trump (photo message) promotes this. Trump's statements about "Putin letting him down" and hopes for "good news" on the Ukraine settlement are being used by UAF IO to highlight potential divisions in the West's perception of Putin's actions and a desire for peace on Ukraine's terms. Confirmation of US PURL weapons arrival is a strong narrative for continued international support and UAF capabilities. Operatyvny ZSU also reports the first US PURL weapon delivery. An EU Ambassador emphasizing the need for energy reforms in Ukraine (РБК-Україна) highlights continued international interest and support for Ukraine's long-term stability. UAF IO material depicting soldiers in combat and sacrifice, often leveraging emotional elements like a fallen soldier with a cat, reinforces patriotic narratives. Training initiatives for national resistance also foster patriotism. The Military Ombudsman law emphasizes caring for service members. The Coordination Headquarters provides critical support for families of POWs/MIA, bolstering morale. Active reporting on the return of bodies of fallen servicemen demonstrates transparency and care for personnel. Report on no elections in 2026 implies UAF IO to justify wartime measures. Appointment of Tetyana Chornovol as people's deputy highlights democratic processes. РБК-Україна posts a photo message featuring an analytical piece titled "War, Ukraine, the world. What to pay attention to today," which frames ongoing events from a Ukrainian perspective. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the EU will accelerate its rejection of Russian liquefied natural gas due to pressure from Trump, positioning this as a positive outcome for Ukraine. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video with an inflammatory caption against the "second army," displaying strong anti-RF sentiment and bolstering UAF morale and resolve. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a video compilation documenting over 1300 combat engagements in the last seven days, with nearly a third on the Pokrovsk direction. РБК-Україна posts a photo message stating Zelenskyy invited Qatar to a summit in New York regarding the return of Ukrainian children, highlighting humanitarian diplomacy. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo message detailing the exposure of heads of military medical commissions in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts for bribery, promoting transparency and anti-corruption efforts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo message announcing the opening of a mental health center in Ternopil for military personnel and veterans, emphasizing support for service members. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts drone footage of Mykolaiv marines (VARTOVI battalion) successfully striking Russian vehicles, artillery, and infantry, demonstrating UAF effectiveness and boosting morale. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts drone footage of the 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" destroying eight Russian assault troops on the Pokrovsk direction, further reinforcing the narrative of successful UAF operations and precision. "РБК-Україна" refutes claims of a "data leak" from e-Notariat, serving to reassure the public about data security and counter RF disinformation. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports RF is distributing "evacuation" leaflets in Velyka Pysarivka, Sumy Oblast, which UAF IO can frame as a sign of RF desperation or fear of UAF counter-action. "Оперативний ЗСУ" crowdfunding for the Pokrovsk direction highlights continued public support. "Colonelcassad" posts an image claiming Russian forces destroyed "Georgian mercenary Yura Kalandarishvili," which RF IO will use to discredit foreign fighters and claim successes against NATO-aligned personnel, but UAF IO can use it to highlight the international nature of the conflict and RF's willingness to target foreign fighters. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a humorous video with "victory music," likely a morale-boosting effort. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that a former Ukrainian brigadier general who betrayed Ukraine in 2014 is commanding the assault on Kupiansk, a narrative highlighting internal betrayal which UAF IO can use to emphasize the enemy's reliance on such figures. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна reporting on the "Gerbera" UAV fragment found on a Latvian beach highlights RF external aggression. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement about 1000 interceptor drones daily, boosting morale by projecting a strong, adaptive, and technologically advanced defense. UAF IO will likely frame the EU's accelerated rejection of Russian LNG (Bloomberg) as a victory for international pressure and a sign of weakening Russian economic power. UAF IO will counter RF amplification of Trump's "no ceasefire" statement by highlighting it as evidence that international leaders recognize Putin's unwillingness to genuinely negotiate, reinforcing UAF's resolve to continue fighting. РБК-Україна highlights Poland conducting large-scale checks of bomb shelters, framing it within the context of European readiness to RF threats. РБК-Україна shares a video of Donald Trump suggesting Europe taking action against China could accelerate the end of the war in Ukraine, which UAF IO will likely monitor for opportunities to reinforce narratives of international pressure on RF. Оперативний ЗСУ posts messages regarding Russia's challenge to the ICAO decision on MH17, framing it as Russia attempting to evade responsibility. РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Pavlohrad, and Николаевский Ванёк reports successful downing of drones. These immediate reports from UAF-aligned channels serve as direct IO reinforcing UAF's active defense and effectiveness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting that Ukraine produces 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month, aiming for 7 daily by year-end, which will be leveraged to project growing domestic defense capabilities. The UAF Air Force (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) reporting 20+ Shaheds from Chernihiv to Kyiv is a direct and immediate UAF IO response highlighting ongoing RF threats and UAF defensive vigilance. The Air Force of Ukraine (Повітряні Сили ЗС України) report on a group of UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast also serves as a critical, immediate UAF IO communication. РБК-Україна posts a video message reporting RF has recently built a new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast, 35 km from the Ukrainian border, attributed to OSINT-analyst Brady Africk. РБК-Україна also posts a tactical analysis of a satellite image of the Bryansk Oblast launch site. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posted a video claiming to show aerial combat on the Zaporizhzhia front, displaying FPV drone footage, telemetry data, and what appears to be a Ukrainian drone targeting Russian equipment. This visual confirmation reinforces UAF's active and successful use of drones in combat.

NEW INTELLIGENCE:

• Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast (RF Claim): "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video claiming the 1009th regiment destroyed UAF infantry in Volchansk. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (UAF Report): "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports on the consequences of enemy night attacks on Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast (UAF Report): "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" reports a 74-year-old man was injured due to an enemy attack on the Stepnohirsk community. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Kyiv (UAF Report): "РБК-Україна" and "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" report possible disruptions to card payments and ticket validation on high-speed trams and funiculars in Kyiv due to the night shelling. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Netherlands Refugee Policy: РБК-Україна reports that the Netherlands is considering excluding Ukrainian male refugees from the housing system. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Bornholm (RF Allegation): ТАСС reports Russian Ambassador to Denmark, Vladimir Barbin, claimed Bornholm Island is used by Copenhagen to create security threats to Russia, particularly Kaliningrad Oblast. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• Yampil, DNR (RF Claim): ТАСС reports Marochko claimed RF Army broke through UAF defenses and entered Yampil in DNR. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• Nesterianka (RF Claims): "Два майора" posts video claiming UAF "radio-controlled kamikaze drones, fiber-optic attack UAVs, artillery shelling, and tank fire" on RF positions in Nesterianka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• RF Casualties: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports an additional 1150 personnel neutralized in the last 24 hours. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)
• IAEA Resolution: РБК-Україна (UAF source) reports the IAEA General Conference adopted a resolution calling on Russia to return control of the Zaporizhzhia NPP to Ukraine. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Kryvyi Rih Situation: Олександр Вілкул (UAF source) reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of the morning of 19.09.25. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Fundraising: "STERNENKO" reports collecting an additional 8 million UAH for the UAF yesterday. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• EU LNG Policy: "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports Bloomberg's statement that the EU plans to reject Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) as quickly as possible. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• UAF Deep Strike (Kursk Oblast): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) posts video claiming SSO struck a logistics hub of the 810th Separate Marine Brigade (OBRMPS) in Kursk Oblast. (FACT, UAF CLAIM)

Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian Sentiment (Confidence: HIGH): Morale is bolstered by the successful counter-offensive in Donetsk and the Salavat deep strike. Public support for the military is strong, evident in crowdfunding for drones. There is ongoing concern for civilian casualties from RF aerial attacks (Konstantinovka) and a determination to resist. Patriotism is reinforced through symbolic displays (Motherland Monument). Morale is also boosted by successful air defense responses (Pavlohrad). Increasing domestic missile production will further boost morale and sense of self-reliance. Continued air alerts, especially on Kyiv, will maintain a state of heightened vigilance but also reinforce resolve against aggression. The ongoing drone attack on Kyiv will undoubtedly heighten public anxiety and fear, but simultaneously reinforce national resolve and support for air defense efforts. Reports of successful interceptions will be crucial for maintaining morale. The successful repelling of the Kyiv drone attack, promptly reported with initial damage assessment limited to debris, will likely boost public morale and reinforce confidence in UAF air defense capabilities. However, continued awareness of the drone threat remains. The Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) video, despite its RF origin, showcases UAF drone effectiveness, which could inadvertently boost UAF morale if widely seen. Public sentiment will be sensitive to reports of the Netherlands' potential exclusion of Ukrainian male refugees from housing, as this could be perceived as a reduction in international support or a discriminatory policy. UAF claims of 1150 RF casualties in 24 hours will boost Ukrainian morale. The IAEA resolution on Zaporizhzhia NPP will be perceived as a diplomatic victory and boost morale. The reported controlled situation in Kryvyi Rih will reassure the local population and project stability. The continued fundraising success for UAF (STERNENKO) is a strong indicator of high public morale and support. The EU's accelerated rejection of Russian LNG (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) will be perceived as a positive development, boosting morale by indicating economic pressure on RF. The reporting of civilian casualties in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia (Stepnohirsk) will likely galvanize public anger and resolve against RF aggression. Disruptions to Kyiv public transport payment systems may cause frustration but also reinforce resolve against RF attacks.
• Russian Sentiment (Confidence: MEDIUM): RF leadership attempts to project high morale and inexhaustible resources (700k troops, Zapad-2025). However, reports of internal unit difficulties (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) and reliance on civilian fundraising (Два майора, Alex Parker Returns) suggest underlying strains. The Alex Parker Returns video of decomposing bodies implies significant losses. The ongoing censorship and suppression of dissent indicate internal vulnerabilities. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ's complaints about fundraising indicate potential public apathy or fatigue within the pro-RF segment. The internal criticism within Alex Parker Returns's post regarding funding sources suggests some public discontent or awareness of corruption. The "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition aims to bolster public sentiment by showcasing heroism. The narrative about a former UAF officer commanding the Kupiansk assault might be intended to boost morale by suggesting insider advantage. The ongoing Kyiv attack will be portrayed by RF IO as a successful retaliation, boosting pro-war sentiment. RF IO attempting to portray international support for Russia (IAEA abstentions) aims to bolster public sentiment. The proposal to increase maternity capital is a direct attempt to bolster public sentiment by projecting state support for families and long-term domestic stability. The RF IO narrative about UAF abandoning NATO weapons and the discussion on salary disparities within Ukraine aim to undermine Ukrainian morale and sow internal discontent, implicitly boosting Russian sentiment by portraying UAF weakness and internal problems. The TASS report on the "terrorist community" responsible for General Kirillov's murder will be used to reinforce a narrative of internal security success and justify actions against alleged enemies, boosting public confidence in RF's ability to maintain order. The Vodolatsky interview, by linking the conflict's resolution to Trump's victory, aims to provide a long-term, potentially optimistic outlook for pro-RF audiences, suggesting external factors (Western politics) will ultimately favor Russia. The RF IO claim of a Croatian citizen surrendering from UAF will be used to demonstrate UAF weakness and further boost RF morale. The Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo message aims to boost morale among RF VDV forces. RF claims of entering Yampil, DNR, will be used to boost domestic morale and project military success.
• RF External IO (Poland): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) reports a channel for transferring Ukrainian draft evaders was blocked in Poland. This will be used to demonstrate perceived Ukrainian weakness and Polish cooperation, potentially boosting Russian sentiment. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• RF Assistance for Frontline: Операция Z (RF source) amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" videos showing donation deliveries for fighters on the Pokrovsk and Dnipropetrovsk fronts. This aims to boost morale by demonstrating public support for frontline troops. (FACT, RF CLAIM - Donation deliveries for RF units)
• RF Air Defense: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) reports RF air defense destroyed 4 enemy UAVs over annexed Crimea overnight. This will boost Russian public confidence in their air defense capabilities. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• US Veto on Gaza Ceasefire: Два майора (RF source) reports the US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution on a Gaza ceasefire. This will be leveraged by RF IO to portray US diplomatic isolation and hypocrisy, potentially impacting international sentiment and indirectly influencing perceptions of the Ukraine conflict. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• Moscow Weather: Новости Москвы reports September 2025 in Moscow will be one of the driest. This is a normalcy narrative, distracting from the conflict and projecting an image of stability. (FACT)
• RF Social Welfare (TASS): "ТАСС" reports Olga Yaroslavskaya, Moscow Children's Rights Commissioner, supported the idea of payments to families with three or more children, proposing it be called "family capital" instead of "father's capital." This is likely to be received positively, boosting domestic morale and projecting state care. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• RF Consumer Spending (Новости Москвы): "Новости Москвы" reports every fifth Russian spends over 40% of income on food. This is an economic reality that could cause public strain if not addressed, potentially impacting morale. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• RF SOF Operations (Vremevsky Direction): "Colonelcassad" posts video claiming the 14th Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade destroyed UAF militants on the Vremevsky direction. This RF IO aims to boost morale by showcasing military effectiveness. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• RF Air Defense Production: ТАСС (RF source) reports the "High-Precision Systems" holding delivered a batch of new "Pantsir-SMD" SAM systems to the RF Armed Forces. This will contribute to a narrative of military modernization and strength. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• RF Mining Policy: ТАСС (RF source) reports the Ministry of Energy does not expect new bans on cryptocurrency mining in RF regions soon. This projects internal economic stability. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• RF Information Control: ТАСС (RF source) reports the list of Russian services and sites available during mobile network restrictions for security purposes will be updated weekly. This projects state control and security. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• RF Drone Superiority Claim: Операция Z (RF source) amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" video claiming "Rubikon" (Lekka-100 drone) achieves air superiority. This aims to boost morale and project technological advantage. (FACT, RF CLAIM)
• RF Civilian Casualties (Belgorod): ASTRA (RF source) reports two people were injured in Belgorod Oblast due to drone strikes. This will be used to portray Ukraine as aggressive and RF citizens as victims, potentially galvanizing support for the war. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• Geopolitical Speculation (Venezuela): Рыбарь (RF source) posts about forecasts of a possible US invasion of Venezuela. This is an RF IO attempt to divert attention and portray US aggression globally. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• Israel's Iron Beam (Два майора): "Два майора" posts video claiming Israel's Iron Beam laser air defense system is ready for use this year. This is RF IO reporting on foreign military technology, potentially for comparative purposes or to highlight perceived Western advanced capabilities. (FACT, RF REPORT on foreign military technology).

International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Support for Ukraine (Confidence: HIGH): Continued US military aid (PURL) and high-level engagement with NATO (Umierov-Turner meeting) underscore robust international support. Discussions within the EU about using frozen RF assets for Ukraine indicate sustained financial commitment. Poland's heightened alert (bomb shelter checks) reflects a serious allied posture. The US State Department's approval of Javelin sales to Poland further demonstrates commitment to NATO's eastern flank.
• Diplomatic Engagement: Trump's comments create a complex diplomatic environment, with both UAF and RF IO attempting to leverage his statements. The US veto of the Gaza ceasefire in the UNSC may be used by RF to undermine US credibility internationally. Russia's legal challenge to the MH17 decision at the ICJ is a continuation of their diplomatic efforts to deny responsibility and challenge international judicial processes. Trump's statements on TikTok and China's readiness to finalize a deal indicate ongoing US-China economic and diplomatic activity, which has indirect implications for global stability and thus for Ukraine. TASS reporting on RF economic forecasts and global economic crises will be part of RF's diplomatic messaging. Turkey's interest in BRICS and ASEAN (TASS) indicates a multipolar diplomatic landscape that RF will seek to exploit to undermine Western influence. TASS reports that Washington hopes to agree on the next diplomatic negotiations with Moscow regarding diplomatic missions "when it is convenient for both sides." This indicates a continuation of low-level diplomatic engagement despite active hostilities. RF is actively pursuing financial independence from Western systems through cooperation with China (independent depository). TASS reports on MI6 launching a darknet portal, which is a diplomatic narrative used to portray Western covert aggression. TASS reports on a record number of abstentions at the IAEA conference, which RF will use to claim international backing for its position. Vodolatsky's statements in the TASS interview directly contribute to RF's diplomatic messaging strategy by outlining a long-term political dimension to the conflict's resolution, aiming to influence international perceptions and leverage divisions within Western alliances. TASS reports RF's Pacific Fleet nuclear submarines "Krasnoyarsk" and "Omsk" conducted cruise missile launches in the Okhotsk Sea during exercises, showcasing continued naval readiness and missile capabilities. РБК-Україна reports Russia has appealed the ICAO decision regarding MH17 at the UN Court, which is a continued diplomatic maneuver to challenge international findings. РБК-Україна reports Trump refused military aid to Taiwan for a deal with China. This indicates a potential shift in US foreign policy which could have indirect global implications, impacting geopolitical stability.
• IAEA Resolution: РБК-Україна (UAF source) reports the IAEA General Conference adopted a resolution calling on Russia to return control of the Zaporizhzhia NPP to Ukraine. This represents a diplomatic victory for Ukraine, reinforcing international pressure on Russia. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• US Veto on Gaza Ceasefire: Два майора (RF source) reports the US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution on a Gaza ceasefire. This diplomatic action will be used by RF to portray US diplomatic isolation and hypocrisy on the international stage. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• EU LNG Policy: "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports Bloomberg's statement that the EU plans to reject Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) as quickly as possible. This is a significant diplomatic development, indicating continued international pressure on Russia. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Netherlands Refugee Policy: РБК-Україна reports that the Netherlands is considering excluding Ukrainian male refugees from the housing system. This external development could become a point of diplomatic tension and be exploited by RF to demonstrate disunity in the European response. (FACT, UAF REPORT)
• Bornholm (RF Allegation): ТАСС reports Russian Ambassador to Denmark, Vladimir Barbin, claimed Bornholm Island is used by Copenhagen to create security threats to Russia, particularly Kaliningrad Oblast. This is a clear RF IO attempt to justify its military posture, demonize NATO, and potentially divert international attention from Ukraine. (FACT, RF REPORT)
• Geopolitical Speculation (Venezuela): Рыбарь (RF source) posts about forecasts of a possible US invasion of Venezuela. This is an RF IO attempt to divert attention and portray US aggression globally. (FACT, RF REPORT)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA 1: Sustained Ground Offensive on Kupiansk-Lyman, Southern Donetsk, Pokrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Volchansk, and Yampil Axes (Confidence: HIGH)

• Actions: RF will continue to concentrate forces and intensify ground assaults on Kupiansk and the Serebryansky forestry area, aiming for local encirclements and urban control. They will likely attempt to capitalize on claimed advances and reported UAF disorganization in Kupiansk, employing urban infiltration tactics (e.g., via gas pipes, sewers). On the Lyman axis, RF will push for a decisive encirclement in Serebryansky forestry, using combined arms and possibly disguised DRGs. Concurrently, RF will maintain and potentially intensify offensives on the Southern Donetsk direction, specifically around Novoivanovka, leveraging artillery and drone support, and continue to pressure the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) agglomeration, including urban/semi-urban combat. Furthermore, RF will likely escalate attempts to break through towards Zaporizhzhia via Kamyanske and and Plavni. RF will also attempt to consolidate gains and expand control in Yampil, DNR, following claimed entry. RF will intensify ground operations in Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, using incendiary munitions and drone support. Localized advances on targets like Novonikolaevka, Malaya Tokmachka, Otradnoye, and in Dnipropetrovsk/Eastern Zaporizhzhia will persist to stretch UAF defenses. Precision MLRS strikes will continue on UAF positions, with a continued willingness to use guided aerial bombs on civilian targets (e.g., Konstantinovka). RF forces from "Zapad-2025" may be redeployed to active combat zones, potentially including the Kyiv axis, as implied by Janus Putkonen. Aggressive recruitment with high financial incentives will be sustained to back these operations. RF will also continue to enhance C2 networks in key offensive areas (e.g., Krasnoarmeysk direction). Putin's statements on over 700k personnel on the line of contact, though possibly inflated, suggest a high readiness to commit manpower. RF Army Aviation (Ka-52m) will continue to provide direct fire support to ground operations in relevant sectors (MoD Russia). RF will continue to leverage controversial recruitment methods (e.g., pardoned criminals, foreign nationals) to sustain manpower for these offensives (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, ТАСС). Cluster Iskander strikes against UAF company tactical groups (Druzhkivka) indicate an ongoing intent to target UAF troop concentrations. Deployment of foreign mercenary personnel (e.g., Cubans) will continue to supplement RF ground forces (Николаевский Ванёк). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming strikes on UAF positions on the Donetsk direction, indicating continued localized ground offensive support. Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming "Akhmat" special forces successfully used a KVN drone to strike a UAF pickup truck with infantry on the Kharkiv direction, claiming "3 dead fighters," directly indicating ground offensive actions supported by precision UAVs. Воин DV posts video detailing renewed artillery strikes and attacks on enemy personnel in the Polozhskoye direction, demonstrating continued offensive operations. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo of a tactical map implying RF claims of significant territorial control or advances in Kupiansk, supporting the likelihood of continued ground offensives. Despite "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reporting a "difficult period," RF ground offensives are likely to continue, with emphasis on using "evacuation" leaflets in Sumy Oblast (Velyka Pysarivka) as a psychological operation possibly preceding or accompanying ground incursions in border regions. Военкор Котенок's report on a deficit of medics suggests RF is facing sustainment strain for prolonged offensives, which could present an opportunity for UAF. The General Staff reports from UAF indicate significant RF ground engagement across multiple axes. RF will intensify counter-DRG operations (e.g., against UAF "Baba Yaga" drone groups on the Dnieper) to protect their positions and logistical routes. RF Wagner Group personnel training Belarusian forces indicates an intent to increase readiness and potentially integrate these forces into future operations. The "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition promotes a narrative of heroism to support ongoing ground operations. The appointment of a former UAF officer to command the Kupiansk offensive suggests a deliberate strategy to leverage insider knowledge for potential breakthroughs. Military police of the Western Group of Forces providing assistance to farmers in LNR (Colonelcassad) indicates continued RF presence and attempts to stabilize occupied territories while freeing up other units for combat. RF will leverage IO (TASS claims) about UAF abandoning NATO weapons to reinforce narratives of UAF tactical setbacks and demoralization. TASS claims of advances at Kucherovka and Petropavlovka are immediate indicators of continued localized ground offensives. The "Два майора" video from Nesterianka, showing intense UAF artillery and drone attacks on RF positions, indicates a high level of reciprocal ground activity. TASS claims of RF SOF destroying UAF militants on the Vremevsky direction indicate continued RF ground operations with specialized units. RF will also continue to utilize mine warfare and booby traps, as reported in Zaporizhzhia, to inflict casualties and psychological impact on UAF ground forces, requiring UAF to commit demining resources.
• Indicators: Continued RF tactical map updates showing small, incremental advances; increased drone activity for ISR and fire correction in these sectors; amplification of "UAF collapse" narratives by RF IO; sustained high-intensity artillery and glide bomb strikes in these areas. HUMINT from captured RF soldiers and foreign nationals will detail specific infiltration tactics. Continued RF claims of destroying UAF strongholds and temporary deployment points in key areas like Konstantinovka and Malaya Tokmachka. Increased reports of RF armor (e.g., T-72 variants) in offensive actions. Visual evidence of ongoing fighting in Novoivanovka. MoD Russia reports on C2 improvements in Krasnoarmeysk. Рыбарь's map updates confirming "fights in the agglomeration." RF IO citing UAF sources on advances towards Zaporizhzhia. MoD Russia video showing Ka-52m strikes on AFU positions. Continued reports from TASS of fierce clashes near Konstantinovka. Increased reports of Iskander missile use against tactical targets. Reports of foreign mercenaries (e.g., Cubans, Croatians) in combat indicate a sustained effort to augment ground forces. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming strikes on UAF positions on the Donetsk direction, serving as an indicator of continued ground pressure. Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming "Akhmat" special forces successfully used a KVN drone to strike a UAF pickup truck with infantry on the Kharkiv direction, serving as an indicator of continued tactical offensive operations. Воин DV posts video of drone operators hitting enemy manpower, indicating continued tactical offensive operations. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo of a tactical map claiming a critical situation in Kupiansk, indicating ongoing ground combat and RF claims of UAF setbacks. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reporting operational strain for RF units could be an indicator of unsustainable tempo, but RF still maintains offensive. Distribution of "evacuation" leaflets in Sumy Oblast is a key indicator of potential RF ground operations in border areas. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a video of RF logistical activity, which is an indicator of sustained ground operations. The "Every 5 minutes a new doctor at the heart" video from Военкор Котенок, despite the medical focus, is used as an indicator of ongoing and intense combat, requiring such medical efforts. Операция Z's amplification of the "veterans day" proposal is an indicator of continued efforts to maintain internal morale for ongoing and future operations. Colonelcassad's video of the M109A5 destruction near Konstantinovka indicates ongoing precision targeting of UAF artillery. Воин DV's video claiming "hunting" in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with drone footage of military vehicles and explosions, indicates continued RF ground activity. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's report of over 80 combat engagements and RF assaults across multiple axes confirms ongoing heavy RF ground pressure. Colonelcassad's video of a destroyed UAF DRG and "Baba Yaga" drone is an indicator of active RF counter-DRG operations. Alex Parker Returns's video of a logistics truck in a damaged village confirms ongoing forward logistics operations in contested areas. The "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition, by portraying military achievements, indicates an ongoing commitment to the ground conflict. The claim of a former UAF officer commanding the Kupiansk assault (Операция Z) will be a key indicator for RF IO. Military police assisting farmers (Colonelcassad) indicates RF's broader presence and control in occupied areas. Воин DV's video showing RF FPV drone operators intercepting Ukrainian UAVs demonstrates RF's active counter-UAV operations in support of ground forces. TASS claims of UAF abandoning NATO weapons in Zaporizhzhia Oblast serve as an indicator of RF IO attempting to shape narratives around ground combat. TASS claims of RF advances at Kucherovka and Petropavlovka are immediate indicators of continued localized ground offensives. TASS video of a Croatian citizen surrendering to Russian FPV drone operators in Zaporizhzhia Oblast serves as an indicator of continued RF efforts to exploit and publicize UAF personnel losses, especially those involving foreign nationals. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo message ("Airborne brotherhood, good morning!") is an indicator of continued efforts to boost morale within VDV units engaged in ground operations. Рыбарь's "Chronicle of the SMO" provides a daily overview of RF claims regarding ground operations. TASS report on RF entry into Yampil, DNR, will be a key indicator of confirmed RF territorial gains. The "Два майора" video from Nesterianka, showing intense UAF drone and artillery attacks on RF positions, indicates a high level of reciprocal ground activity. TASS reports of UAF leaving booby-trapped mines with water in Zaporizhzhia is an indicator of ongoing RF exposure to UAF mine warfare. "Военкоры Русской Весны" videos showing donation deliveries to RF units, while intended to show support, also serve as indicators of the necessity for external funding and potential logistical gaps within the RF military. "Операция Z" video of Volchansk combat, showing incendiary munitions, indicates continued offensive action and specific targeting tactics. "Colonelcassad" video of SOF destroying UAF militants on the Vremevsky direction indicates ongoing specialized ground operations.
• MLCOA 2: High-Volume Aerial Campaign Targeting Critical Infrastructure, particularly in Northeastern Oblasts and Kyiv (Confidence: HIGH)
• Actions: RF will launch another large-scale drone (Shahed) and possibly missile attack within 24-48 hours, maintaining the increased volume seen in the last wave (70-100+ UAVs, potential for 170+). The primary focus will remain on degrading Ukraine's energy grid (substations) and railway network (junctions, depots) to disrupt logistics and civilian resilience as winter approaches. Secondary targets may include military repair facilities and large logistics hubs, and military objects in Kyiv Oblast, as seen with the recent "night arrival" strikes. The detected UAV heading to Kramatorsk indicates continued localized aerial threats. The lethal КАБ strike on Konstantinovka suggests continued use of guided aerial bombs on urban areas. RF tactical aviation will remain active on the eastern direction, posing a threat to Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. Persistent КАБ activity in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts confirms this as an ongoing COA. A new group of drones heading from Chernihiv to Kyiv Oblast confirms renewed targeting of the capital region. This will likely be intensified as a retaliatory measure for the Salavat refinery strike. Renewed air alerts and drone activity over Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast indicate an immediate continuation of this COA (РБК-Україна, КМВА). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV (moped) on the outskirts of Kyiv, confirming an immediate aerial threat. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video showing a village under what appears to be artillery or missile strikes, with multiple houses on fire, directly indicating continuation of aerial/artillery attacks on populated areas. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs (mopeds) moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast, indicating persistent RF aerial threats. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a person was injured in Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast, due to a drone attack and falling debris. Air Force of Ukraine reports immediate КАБ activity on Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. This indicates ongoing execution of this COA. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports immediate КАБ activity on Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, suggesting a wider geographic focus for these attacks. Николаевский Ванёк's reports of drones approaching Pavlohrad and air defense engagement indicate immediate and ongoing execution of this COA. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs (mopeds) from Kharkiv Oblast heading towards Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast, signaling continued immediate threats. The current drone attack on Kyiv has concluded. While the immediate aerial threat to Kyiv has passed, the persistent pattern of high-volume drone and missile attacks dictates that RF will likely launch another large-scale aerial campaign within 24-48 hours, targeting critical infrastructure across Ukraine, potentially including Kyiv again. RF will continue targeted drone attacks on cities like Pavlohrad, as demonstrated by the overnight assault. RF will continue to project air defense successes over annexed territories, such as Crimea, to reassure its population and demonstrate control. RF will continue aerial attacks causing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, as seen in the latest reports. RF will seek to disrupt payment systems in Kyiv public transport through aerial attacks. RF will deploy new Pantsir-SMD SAM systems to enhance its air defense, particularly against UAF drones and missiles, and potentially in forward combat zones. RF will continue drone reconnaissance and surveillance missions, as observed with the "Rubikon" (Lekka-100) drone, particularly over agricultural areas. RF will continue to launch drone strikes into Belgorod Oblast, risking civilian casualties, potentially as a retaliatory measure or to assert control over border regions.
• Indicators: Reconnaissance UAV activity preceding strikes; warning from UAF Air Force about multiple drone groups and guided aerial bombs (e.g., in Kharkiv Oblast); increased media reporting on power outages and railway delays; RF IO claiming successful strikes on Ukrainian military targets; RF IO amplifying UAF commander statements predicting winter blackouts. Continued UAF Air Force warnings of aviation munition threats in Eastern Oblasts. Further UAF Air Force warnings regarding UAV movement in Mykolaiv and Chernihiv/Kyiv Oblasts, and КАБ launches in Zaporizhzhia. Active air defense responses in Kyiv Oblast and Kyiv itself indicate ongoing drone threats. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV (moped) on the outskirts of Kyiv, serving as an immediate indicator of renewed aerial threats. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video showing a village under what appears to be artillery or missile strikes, serving as an indicator of continued aerial/artillery attacks. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs (mopeds) moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast, indicating persistent drone threats. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a person was injured in Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast, due to a drone attack and falling debris, which serves as an immediate indicator of renewed aerial threats. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting on a new "Shahed" drone launch facility is a strong indicator of intent for continued aerial campaigns. The partial suspension of Kyiv subway services due to an air raid alarm is a direct, immediate indicator of ongoing aerial threats. The discovery of a "Gerbera" UAV fragment in Latvia is an indicator of RF drone operational reach and potential failures. UAF Air Force warnings regarding КАБ launches on Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts are immediate, real-time indicators of this COA being executed. UAF Air Force reports of КАБ activity on Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts are immediate, real-time indicators of this COA expanding. Николаевский Ванёк's report of drones approaching Pavlohrad and air defense activity are immediate indicators of this COA in action. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs (mopeds) from Kharkiv Oblast heading towards Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast, indicating a continued aerial threat. The lifting of air raid alerts in Kyiv, combined with reports of successful drone interceptions, indicates that the latest aerial campaign has concluded. The observed explosion over Kyiv (НгП раZVедка) and damage reports (ASTRA) are strong indicators of continued RF intent to conduct aerial attacks. Оперативний ЗСУ and KMVA reporting a downed UAV over Kyiv overnight with debris falling is an immediate indicator of continued aerial threats and UAF air defense effectiveness. Reports of a group of UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast heading south are immediate indicators of renewed RF aerial threats against central Ukraine. The massive drone attack on Pavlohrad overnight is a clear indicator of continued RF intent and capability for high-volume drone strikes. RF Air Defense claims of 4 drones destroyed over Crimea indicate ongoing RF air defense operations, likely in response to UAF drone activity. UAF reports of aerial attacks on Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and disruptions in Kyiv, are direct indicators of this COA. TASS report on new Pantsir-SMD SAM deliveries is an indicator of RF efforts to strengthen air defense capabilities. The "Rubikon" (Lekka-100) drone video serves as an indicator of RF's active drone reconnaissance and surveillance operations. ASTRA's report on Belgorod casualties is an indicator of ongoing RF drone strikes in border areas.
• MLCOA 3: Intensified Hybrid and Information Operations (Confidence: HIGH)
• Actions: RF will leverage the discovery of the Lviv wiretap and their claims of UAF disorganization in Kupiansk to launch a coordinated disinformation campaign. This campaign will aim to sow distrust between the Ukrainian military leadership and civilian government, and within the UAF ranks, while simultaneously portraying Ukraine as a failed state riddled with corruption and internal betrayal. They will continue to use "captured agent confessions" and internal security successes (St. Petersburg terror plot, Bucha repost sentencing, VKontakte fines, new fines for anti-war sentiment, harsh sentences in occupied territories, Baza producer release to house arrest, "drunk serviceman" incident, advice on scammers, migration policy enforcement) as part of this narrative to bolster their own image and demonize Ukraine. A new focus will be on discrediting foreign fighters and linking them to criminal activity, and promoting narratives of UAF war crimes (e.g., attacking ambulances, killing civilians with FPV drones). The SBU detention of an RF agent and Kharkiv spotter will likely be counter-narrated. Propaganda aimed at undermining international support for Ukraine (e.g., "Europe pays, USA earns") will be amplified. RF will also use non-military events like sports tournaments and domestic reports to project normalcy. The RF Ministry of Defense's proposal for a state concept of "constructing the image of Russia's enemy" signals a long-term, coordinated information warfare strategy. Lavrov's statements will be disseminated to frame RF's diplomatic stance, including his UNGA meeting. RF will further integrate SMO veterans into political activities to reinforce patriotic narratives. RF media will amplify internal dissent incidents (e.g., Moscow restaurant manager, "kolkhoz woman") to demonstrate state control. RF will specifically attempt to spin or counter the impact of Trump's statements about Putin "letting him down" regarding Ukraine, and Starmer's diplomatic efforts, to avoid perceptions of RF diplomatic isolation or failure. Putin's statements on inflation during parliamentary meetings will also serve to project economic control and stability. The IO will also use the messaging from БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (regarding Putin's comments on criminals as "replacements") to further their narrative about Ukraine's leadership. RF will specifically target narratives about US/NATO military aid (PURL) to undermine confidence and claim Western "escalation." RF will amplify Trump's claims about oil prices impacting the war to sow confusion and externalize blame. RF IO will continue to use highly nationalistic and aggressive content (e.g., Alaudinov's speech) to counter any UAF morale boosts. RF will amplify any Western internal divisions (e.g., Paris protests) to demonstrate weakness. RF will use claims about "Myrotvorets" adding Russian children to demonize Ukraine internationally. RF will specifically exploit reports of internal Ukrainian leadership "conflict" (e.g., GUR vs. President's Office) to amplify discord and undermine confidence in Kyiv's leadership (РБК-Україна). RF will continue to amplify statements from Western leaders (e.g., Trump) that align with RF narratives, such as the idea that the "threat of WW3 has passed" or that falling oil prices can end the conflict (TASS). RF will use soft propaganda (e.g., "Mash na Донбассе" cat videos, TASS reports on domestic issues) to distract and project normalcy. ASTRA reports "Peace to All" declared "undesirable" in Russia, indicating direct hybrid action to suppress dissenting viewpoints and reinforce state narratives. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of Donald Trump making a confused statement about resolving a conflict between "AzerbaiZhan and Albania," which RF IO will actively amplify to portray Western leadership as inept and disorganized. Colonelcassad posts a photo message stating that Tetyana Chornovol has been appointed to the Verkhovna Rada "instead of the killed Parubiy," and claims she "has a certificate of schizophrenia," directly demonstrating a hybrid operation to discredit Ukrainian political figures through disinformation. ТАСС reports on Putin's closed-door meeting with Duma faction leaders, where he reportedly discussed the front situation in detail, which is part of a larger IO effort to project strong, unified leadership and internal stability. Операция Z amplifies a "Военкоры Русской Весны" report claiming Poland is preparing for war with Russia by checking bomb shelters nationwide, which RF IO uses to portray NATO as aggressive and justify RF's military posture. This narrative, if acted upon, presents a dangerous escalation pathway. Военкор Котенок reports European media coverage of Polish bomb shelter checks, an RF IO narrative aiming to portray NATO aggression. Операция Z amplifies a "Военкоры Русской Весны" report claiming one-third of Poles would flee if Russia attacked, which is an RF IO tactic that could precede or accompany such a provocation. The "Рыбарь" video "Timely Terrorist Attack," while vague, could be a precursor to a false flag or misattributed incident that RF could use as a pretext for border escalation. The discovery of a "Gerbera" UAV fragment on a Latvian beach could be an unplanned precursor to such a provocation, or RF could use it as a pretext for aggressive rhetoric. Военкор Котенок's report of a Yemeni drone striking a hotel in Eilat, Israel, while not a direct RF action, could be observed and potentially replicated by RF or its proxies to test air defense responses or cause limited escalation in other regions. The ongoing large-scale checks of bomb shelters in Poland (РБК-Україна) suggest heightened NATO border concerns, making a provocation more impactful if successful. Trump's hope that the F-16 missile incident was due to loss of drone control suggests a desire to de-escalate, but this could be misinterpreted by RF as a sign of weakness, emboldening a calculated provocation. РБК-Україна's video of Trump commenting on drones in Poland, and Оперативний ЗСУ's amplification of his statements, indicate ongoing attention to the drone incident, which RF could still attempt to leverage or exploit. The US State Department's approval of Javelin sales to Poland (TASS) could be framed by RF as an aggressive act by NATO, potentially used as a pretext for increased border activity. RF IO will leverage the limited damage from the Kyiv drone attack (damaged trolleybus network) to claim success, and will continue to deploy dehumanizing and sarcastic narratives (НгП раZVедка's "Каклы в Кыюве веселятся") to demoralize Ukrainians. RF will also continue to portray itself as a victim of Western aggression (MI6 darknet portal) and amplify perceived international support (IAEA abstentions). RF IO will prioritize social welfare narratives, such as increasing maternity capital, to project a caring state and foster internal support for the government and its policies. RF IO will also promote internal narratives regarding military and civilian salary disparities, portraying UAF personnel as potentially exploited or facing significant psychological tolls (Операция Z message). RF will continue to undermine international support for Ukraine, as seen in the TASS claim of UAF abandoning NATO weapons in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Roskomnadzor's actions to block fraudulent SIM cards will be leveraged by RF IO to project effective internal security and control over digital communications. RF IO will intensify narratives around internal security and "terrorism," leveraging cases like the General Kirillov murder to justify state actions and portray Ukraine as a source of instability. RF IO will actively use statements from figures like Vodolatsky to shape narratives about the conflict's duration and resolution, specifically linking it to Western political developments (e.g., US elections) to manage expectations and maintain domestic support for a protracted conflict. RF will continue its legal challenges against international decisions (MH17 appeal) to undermine international consensus and deny accountability. Colonelcassad's video showcasing China's robot dog firing an RPG, while not RF action, presents a powerful visual that RF IO could leverage to promote the idea of rapid technological advancement by its allies or potential future threats to UAF, serving as psychological warfare. RF IO will leverage Trump's alleged refusal of military aid to Taiwan to highlight perceived US geopolitical shifts and potential weakening of US alliances (РБК-Україна). ТАСС's video on the captured Croatian citizen from UAF will be extensively used for IO, focusing on foreign national involvement and UAF disorganization. Рыбарь's daily situation summary, "Chronicle of the SMO for September 18," will be a key RF IO product, controlling the overall narrative of events. RF IO will exploit reports of the Netherlands' potential exclusion of Ukrainian male refugees from housing, framing it as a decline in Western support and internal European division. RF IO will amplify geopolitical accusations, leveraging claims such as Denmark using Bornholm to threaten Kaliningrad, to justify their own military build-up and operations. RF IO will amplify claims of successful entry into Yampil, DNR, to project military success and progress. RF IO will leverage the "Два майора" video from Nesterianka, portraying intense UAF attacks on RF positions, to highlight RF resilience and the ferocity of the fighting, potentially justifying future RF actions. RF IO will attempt to downplay or ignore UAF claims of 1150 RF casualties in the last 24 hours. RF IO will promote narratives of internal stability and highlight alleged issues with Ukrainian mobilization, as seen in the reports from Poland regarding draft evaders. RF IO will exploit the US veto on the Gaza ceasefire to portray US diplomatic isolation and hypocrisy. RF IO will continue to use normalcy narratives (e.g., Moscow weather, consumer spending reports) to distract from the conflict. RF IO will leverage exhibitions of Chinese police technology to indirectly project technological advancement or potential future capabilities. RF IO will amplify claims of successful SOF operations, such as on the Vremevsky direction, to boost morale and project military effectiveness. RF IO will continue to reinforce narratives about the stability of the Russian economy, as seen in the Ministry of Energy's stance on cryptocurrency mining. RF IO will project an image of state control and security over the information environment, as evidenced by weekly updates on accessible Russian services during mobile network restrictions. RF IO will continue to claim air superiority for its drones, as seen with "Rubikon," to boost morale. RF IO will use reports of civilian casualties in Belgorod Oblast to portray Ukraine as aggressive and RF citizens as victims, rallying domestic support. RF IO will engage in geopolitical speculation, such as on Venezuela, to divert attention from Ukraine and portray broader US aggression.
• Indicators: Increased RF media output focusing on internal Ukrainian divisions, corruption, and "spy scandals"; specific targeting of UAF commanders or government officials in IO narratives; amplification of any domestic Ukrainian protests or social tensions (e.g., wounded soldier's appeal); increased reporting on RF internal security successes, and content discrediting foreign fighters, and new claims of UAF atrocities. Continued RF IO on veteran integration and domestic normalcy. Putin's focus on migration policy and land grants for veterans. RF statements attempting to downplay or reframe international diplomatic discourse regarding Ukraine, particularly Trump's comments. Direct RF media commentary on PURL or other Western aid packages. RF media focusing on commodity prices and their impact on global politics. Increased nationalistic and anti-Western rhetoric from high-level RF figures. Increased reporting on alleged Ukrainian "war crimes" against civilians or children. RF amplification of internal Ukrainian reports of GUR/President's Office "conflict." ASTRA reports "Peace to All" declared "undesirable" in Russia, serving as an indicator of intensified censorship and information control. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of Donald Trump making a confused statement about resolving a conflict between "Azerbaijan and Albania," serving as an indicator that RF IO will amplify narratives portraying Western leadership as inept. Colonelcassad posts a photo message claiming a Ukrainian politician has "schizophrenia" and was "shoved" into the Rada, serving as an indicator of continued RF IO to discredit Ukrainian political figures. ТАСС reports on Putin's closed-door meeting with Duma faction leaders, serving as an indicator of RF's efforts to project strong leadership and internal unity. Операция Z amplifies a "Военкоры Русской Весны" report claiming Poland is preparing for war with Russia by checking bomb shelters nationwide, serving as an indicator of RF IO to portray NATO as aggressive. Новости Москвы reports a proposal to deprive unemployed Russians of free medicine, serving as an indicator of potential social engineering or propaganda related to internal policy. Игорь Артамонов posts a photo message promoting a volunteer, serving as an indicator of morale-boosting IO. Военкор Котенок reports European media coverage of Polish bomb shelter checks, serving as an indicator of RF IO to amplify perceived NATO threats. Операция Z amplifies a "Военкоры Русской Весны" report claiming one-third of Poles would flee, serving as an indicator of RF IO to sow fear and imply weakness. Рыбарь posts a video on "illegals - a threat to Kazakhstan," serving as an indicator of RF IO to promote internal security narratives. Alex Parker Returns reports Trump's statement about WW3 no longer being threatened, serving as an indicator of RF IO to project de-escalation. Новости Москвы posts a photo message about "Tanuki preparing to open a restaurant on the Moon," serving as an indicator of RF IO to distract and project normalcy. Глеб Никитин posts a video presenting a "Sports Nizhny Novgorod" metaverse, serving as an indicator of RF soft power IO. Два майора's video "Ukrainian Record or At the sight of a Russian drone, take off your hat" serves as a direct indicator of RF IO to portray drone superiority. Kotsnews posts a video "Evening Bell" with images of the LADA Niva production line, serving as an indicator of RF IO for industrial normalcy. "Два майора" post on "depoliticizing" Stalin. "Рыбарь"'s "Timely Terrorist Attack" video will be followed by further IO if a false flag is conducted. RF amplification of the former Ukrainian brigadier general commanding the Kupiansk assault will indicate RF's specific targeting of internal Ukrainian divisions. RF IO will monitor the Trump-Xi Jinping call for any narratives that can be spun to RF's advantage. The discovery of a "Gerbera" UAV fragment in Latvia might trigger new RF IO narratives blaming NATO or Ukraine for border incidents. Immediate amplification of Trump's "no ceasefire" statement by RF-aligned channels (Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z) is a direct indicator of this COA in action. Военкор Котенок's rapid assessment and visual dissemination of alleged incidents serve as immediate indicators of RF's responsive IO. ASTRA's reports on internal security incidents like the Voronezh school attack, and TASS reports on corruption arrests, will be actively leveraged by RF IO to control narratives around internal stability and security. TASS reporting the US veto on Gaza ceasefire is an indicator of RF IO immediately seizing on international events to discredit Western foreign policy. Alex Parker Returns's inflammatory anti-Ukrainian posts are indicators of the continued use of extreme propaganda by RF-aligned channels. TASS reporting Trump's view on the Poland incident as drone control loss is an indicator of RF IO attempting to shape narratives around border security incidents. РБК-Україна reporting Trump's view on Putin/Zelenskyy relations is an indicator that RF IO will amplify narratives of irreconcilable differences. РБК-Україна shares a video of Donald Trump commenting on drones in Poland, and Оперативний ЗСУ's amplification of his statements, indicate ongoing attention to the drone incident, which RF could still attempt to leverage or exploit. Alex Parker Returns and РБК-Україна emphasizing Trump's "Putin and Zelenskyy hate each other" statement directly indicates RF IO's efforts to portray an unresolvable conflict. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS's posts on antisemitism in Germany are an indicator of RF IO attempting to create negative narratives about European societies. ТАСС's photo message criticizing "begging" for defense aid is a direct indicator of RF IO trying to delegitimize international support. Alex Parker Returns's photo message claiming Rostec servicing UAF helicopters is an indicator of new, subtle IO to sow distrust. Colonelcassad's video of UAF DRG destruction is an indicator of RF IO projecting defensive success. Colonelcassad's promotion of Wagner training is an indicator of RF IO projecting strength. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZA's complaints about fundraising are an indicator of potential internal strain that RF IO may attempt to spin. TASS reports Putin released Kozak from his position. This is an indicator of RF leadership making visible internal changes, which will be framed positively by RF IO. Alex Parker Returns's post on "contributions from restaurant checks for SVO needs" is an indicator of RF IO attempting to rally public support for the war effort, while also hinting at internal resource discussions. Новости Москвы's video of S7 Airlines presenting new employee uniforms, a blatant RF IO attempt to project normalcy and a functioning civilian economy. ТАСС reports Trump believes China is ready to finalize the TikTok sale to US companies, demonstrating RF's continued monitoring and reporting on international business and geopolitical events, often for IO purposes. Colonelcassad posts a photo message quoting Trump saying it is "not the time to ask Putin for a ceasefire," which RF IO will amplify to project RF strength and an unwavering stance. Minister of Finance Siluanov's statement on an expected 12-13% key rate for the 2026 budget indicates continued focus on economic stability messaging. Операция Z amplifies a Business Insider report predicting a world crisis in 2026, which RF IO will likely leverage to portray Western economic instability. Colonelcassad posts videos and images from the "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition, promoting RF military heroism and displaying destroyed enemy equipment (unattributed to specific units). "Военкоры Русской Весны" (amplified by Операция Z) claims a former UAF officer who defected in 2014 is commanding the Russian offensive on Kupiansk, a narrative that RF will leverage to sow discord within UAF. RF IO is actively disseminating content (Операция Z) that claims "shooting and explosions" in Kyiv, aiming to amplify the psychological impact of the drone attack and generate fear. Рыбарь's recent message (🇺🇸🇻🇪Вы думаете, это реально оказалась по итогу лодка с 60-тью наркосами?) could be a diversionary tactic to draw attention away from the Kyiv attack and other RF military actions. TASS reports on the proposal to increase maternity capital, which is an indicator of RF IO promoting social welfare narratives to boost domestic support. Операция Z reporting on man discussing salary disparities between military and civilian personnel in Ukraine is an indicator of RF IO attempting to sow economic discontent and morale issues within Ukraine. TASS claims of UAF abandoning NATO weapons in Zaporizhzhia Oblast are an indicator of RF IO seeking to influence perceptions of ground combat and demoralize UAF forces. Roskomnadzor's actions to block fraudulent SIM cards are an indicator of RF IO efforts to project internal security and control information flow. TASS reports on General Kirillov's murder suspects being accused of organizing a terrorist community. This indicates an RF IO effort to reinforce internal security narratives and demonize alleged enemies. Vodolatsky's interview (TASS), linking the Ukraine conflict's resolution to Trump's victory over the "deep state," is a key indicator of RF IO attempting to influence international perceptions and manage domestic expectations for a prolonged conflict. The nationalistic and historical rhetoric in the accompanying video further indicates a strong IO push. ТАСС posts video of nuclear submarine cruise missile launches, indicating RF IO to project military strength and readiness. РБК-Україна reports Russia's appeal of the ICAO decision on MH17, indicating a continued RF IO effort to deny responsibility. Colonelcassad's video showcasing China's robot dog firing an RPG provides a visual of emerging military technology that RF IO could use to project power or future threats. РБК-Україна's report on Trump's alleged refusal of military aid to Taiwan for a deal with China will be monitored closely for how RF IO frames this to undermine Western alliances. TASS video of a Croatian citizen surrendering from UAF will be heavily used as an IO tool by RF. Рыбарь's "Chronicle of the SMO" serves as a continuous indicator of RF's attempts to control the daily narrative. РБК-Україна reports on the Netherlands' potential exclusion of Ukrainian male refugees from housing, which is an indicator for RF IO to exploit perceived Western disunity and declining support. ТАСС report on Bornholm as a threat to Russia is an indicator of RF IO to justify aggressive posture and demonize NATO. ТАСС report on RF entry into Yampil, DNR, is an indicator of RF IO to project military success. The "Два майора" video from Nesterianka, portraying intense UAF attacks, is an indicator of RF IO to highlight the ferocity of fighting and RF resilience. RF IO will attempt to downplay or ignore UAF claims of 1150 RF casualties in 24 hours (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ) and will continue to promote narratives of providing essential supplies to their frontline units (Операция Z). RF IO will highlight RF air defense successes in Crimea (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ASTRA) to project defensive capability. RF IO will also highlight internal Ukrainian issues with mobilization (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 report on Poland) and leverage the US veto on the Gaza ceasefire (Два майора) to portray Western hypocrisy. RF IO will continue to use normalcy narratives (e.g., Moscow weather, consumer spending reports) to distract from the conflict. TASS report on Olga Yaroslavskaya's support for "family capital" is an indicator of RF IO promoting social welfare. TASS report on Chinese police technology exhibition is an indicator of RF IO promoting technological prowess or future capabilities. Colonelcassad's claim of RF SOF success on the Vremevsky direction is an indicator of RF IO boosting morale. TASS report on new Pantsir-SMD SAM deliveries is an indicator of RF IO to project military industrial strength. TASS report on RF mining policy indicates RF IO for economic stability. TASS report on RF information control updates indicates RF IO for state control. Операция Z's "Rubikon" video is an indicator of RF IO claiming air superiority. ASTRA's report on Belgorod civilian casualties is an indicator of RF IO portraying Ukraine as aggressive. РБК-Україна's summary of night news, while a UAF source, provides indicators of key narratives for both sides. Оперативний ЗСУ's report on SSO deep strike in Kursk Oblast is an indicator for UAF IO. Рыбарь's geopolitical speculation on Venezuela is an indicator of RF IO's broader focus.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA 1: Operational Encirclement and Collapse of Kupiansk/Serebryansky/Yampil/Volchansk Defense (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• Actions: RF achieves a rapid breakthrough or encirclement of UAF forces in Serebryansky forestry, Yampil, Kupiansk, or Volchansk, leading to a large-scale withdrawal or surrender of UAF units. This could involve an unexpected deep strike, coordinated mechanized assault, or the successful exploitation of a command and control vulnerability exposed by intelligence operations like the Lviv wiretap or the detention of the Kharkiv spotter. This would free up significant RF forces for redeployment to other axes. The reported former Ukrainian brigadier general commanding the Kupiansk assault, if true, could provide RF with critical insights into UAF defenses, increasing the risk of encirclement. RF claims of advances near Kucherovka and Petropavlovka in Kupiansk indicate immediate and sustained pressure, increasing the risk of such an encirclement. The RF claim of entering Yampil, DNR, raises the risk of a rapid collapse of UAF defenses in that sector, potentially freeing up RF forces. The continued use of incendiary munitions and ground assaults by the 1009th regiment in Volchansk increases the risk of UAF defensive collapse in that sector.
• Impact: A significant strategic and psychological blow to Ukraine, potentially destabilizing the entire Northeastern front and granting RF a major territorial gain.

MDCOA 2: Mass Cyberattack Synchronized with Physical Strikes (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• Actions: RF launches a sophisticated, widespread cyberattack against Ukraine's critical infrastructure (energy, communications, banking) synchronized with a large-scale physical missile and drone strike wave. This could aim to disable key C2 networks, emergency services, and civilian communications, causing widespread chaos and disrupting UAF response capabilities. The construction of a new "Shahed" drone launch facility (Bryansk Oblast) indicates a potential for increased drone volume to support such a synchronized attack. The recent drone attack on Kyiv, while repelled, demonstrates RF's intent to conduct simultaneous aerial operations. A future synchronized cyberattack would leverage this capability to maximize disruption. RF's demonstrated capability to block tens of thousands of fraudulent SIM cards (Roskomnadzor) indicates advanced state-level control over communication infrastructure, which could be leveraged to disrupt or manipulate civilian and even military communications during such a cyberattack.
• Impact: Severe disruption to civilian life and UAF operations, potentially overwhelming emergency response and creating significant C2 challenges across multiple domains.

MDCOA 3: Provocation Escalation on NATO Border (Confidence: LOW)

• Actions: Following the F-16 missile incident in Poland (if RF-aligned, or a false flag), RF conducts a deliberate, low-intensity military provocation against a NATO border country (e.g., a drone incursion into Polish or Baltic airspace with intent to cause damage, or a direct border incident), aiming to test NATO's response and exploit any perceived divisions. The identified drone launch from Belarus into Lithuania underscores this capability, as does the reported OMON casualties during demining operations near the border. Increased RF-China security cooperation could embolden RF to take such actions. Estonia's "Lightning" exercises will be closely watched by RF. Solovyov's proposal regarding North Korean border guards, if implemented, could further complicate border dynamics. Poland's heightened alert (bomb shelter checks) indicates a perceived risk. Colonelcassad highlighting the Saudi-Pakistan defense pact demonstrates RF's awareness and potential leveraging of shifting global power dynamics. Операция Z amplifies a "Военкоры Русской Весны" report claiming Poland is preparing for war with Russia by checking bomb shelters nationwide, which RF IO uses to portray NATO aggression and justify RF's military posture. This narrative, if acted upon, presents a dangerous escalation pathway. Военкор Котенок reports European media coverage of Polish bomb shelter checks, an RF IO narrative aiming to portray NATO aggression. Операция Z amplifies a "Военкоры Русской Весны" report claiming one-third of Poles would flee if Russia attacked, which is an RF IO tactic that could precede or accompany such a provocation. The "Рыбарь" video "Timely Terrorist Attack," while vague, could be a precursor to a false flag or misattributed incident that RF could use as a pretext for border escalation. The discovery of a "Gerbera" UAV fragment on a Latvian beach could be an unplanned precursor to such a provocation, or RF could use it as a pretext for aggressive rhetoric. Военкор Котенок's report of a Yemeni drone striking a hotel in Eilat, Israel, while not a direct RF action, could be observed and potentially replicated by RF or its proxies to test air defense responses or cause limited escalation in other regions. The ongoing large-scale checks of bomb shelters in Poland (РБК-Україна) suggest heightened NATO border concerns, making a provocation more impactful if successful. Trump's hope that the F-16 missile incident was due to loss of drone control suggests a desire to de-escalate, but this could be misinterpreted by RF as a sign of weakness, emboldening a calculated provocation. РБК-Україна's video of Trump commenting on drones in Poland, and Оперативний ЗСУ's amplification of his statements, indicate ongoing attention to the drone incident, which RF could still attempt to leverage or exploit. The US State Department's approval of Javelin sales to Poland (TASS) could be framed by RF as an aggressive act by NATO, potentially used as a pretext for increased border activity. RF's diplomatic complaints about Denmark using Bornholm to threaten Kaliningrad are an early indicator of increased rhetorical and potential physical pressure on NATO borders. RF IO efforts to highlight alleged issues with Ukrainian draft evaders in Poland could be a precursor to border-related provocations, framing Poland as assisting RF indirectly. RF's focus on military industrial capabilities (Pantsir-SMD delivery) could be framed as a response to perceived NATO threats, justifying further military build-up. RF drone reconnaissance near NATO borders (Gerbera fragment in Latvia) indicates continued intelligence gathering relevant to such provocations.
• Impact: Significant escalation of regional tensions, with potential for miscalculation and wider conflict involving NATO.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Kupiansk/Lyman/Southern Donetsk/Pokrovsk/Zaporizhzhia/Volchansk/Yampil Offensives: Within 24-72 hours, RF will likely attempt to consolidate gains and push for decisive actions in Kupiansk, Serebryansky forestry, Novoivanovka, the Pokrovsk agglomeration, towards Zaporizhzhia (Kamyanske, Plavni), Volchansk, and Yampil. Decision Point: If RF is confirmed to have encircled or severely compromised UAF positions in Serebryansky forestry or is actively fighting in the center of Kupiansk or achieving significant penetration in Pokrovsk or towards Zaporizhzhia, or has consolidated control of Yampil or Volchansk, UAF Command will need to decide on either reinforcing, attempting a counter-encirclement, or a strategic withdrawal to preserve forces. President Zelenskyy's engagement in Dobropillya suggests intent to reinforce/stabilize the front and leverage successful counter-offensives. The success of the 1st Assault Regiment near Dobropillya needs to be factored in. The video from Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, detailing ongoing intense engagements across these axes, suggests that such decision points are imminent or already being addressed. The immediate operational strain reported by "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" may present a localized UAF opportunity on these axes if RF units are indeed degraded. Военкор Котенок's report on a deficit of medics suggests RF is facing sustainment strain for prolonged offensives, which could present an opportunity for UAF. The General Staff's report of over 80 combat engagements in the last 24 hours, with the majority being repelled, indicates that UAF decision points for these axes are being actively addressed through robust defensive operations. The counter-DRG operation by RF on the Dnieper highlights RF's efforts to interdict UAF offensive or reconnaissance actions and could impact UAF decision-making on that axis. The Wagner training of Belarusian forces implies longer-term readiness rather than an immediate decision point. The "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition, by boosting internal morale, suggests RF plans for sustained ground operations. The claim of a former UAF officer commanding the Kupiansk offensive necessitates an immediate internal assessment by UAF to identify potential vulnerabilities and inform tactical decisions. TASS reports of RF advances near Kucherovka and Petropavlovka indicate this decision point is immediate and ongoing in the Kupiansk sector, requiring a rapid UAF assessment of these claims. The claimed capture of a Croatian citizen from UAF in Zaporizhzhia suggests a continued focus on this axis and potential UAF tactical setbacks, requiring further assessment. The RF claim of entering Yampil, DNR, necessitates an immediate UAF assessment of the tactical situation and potential defensive adjustments. The intense UAF artillery and drone activity in Nesterianka (Два майора video) indicates an ongoing, active engagement, requiring continuous tactical assessment and adjustment by UAF command. RF mine warfare tactics in Zaporizhzhia require continuous assessment for UAF ground operations and demining efforts. The RF ground assault in Volchansk, as reported by Операция Z, necessitates an immediate UAF assessment of the tactical situation and potential defensive adjustments to counter incendiary munitions. RF SOF operations on the Vremevsky direction require UAF to assess and counter localized threats.
• Aerial Campaign: Another large-scale RF aerial attack is likely within 24-48 hours, potentially aligned with seasonal conditions or tactical developments on the ground. Renewed air alerts in Kyiv Oblast and Kyiv itself indicate an immediate continuation of RF aerial attacks. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs (mopeds) moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a person was injured in Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast, due to a drone attack and falling debris. Air Force of Ukraine reports immediate КАБ activity on Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. This indicates ongoing execution of this COA. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports immediate КАБ activity on Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, suggesting a wider geographic focus for these attacks. Николаевский Ванёк's reports of drones approaching Pavlohrad and air defense engagement indicate immediate and ongoing execution of this COA. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs (mopeds) from Kharkiv Oblast heading towards Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast, signaling continued immediate threats. The current drone attack on Kyiv has been repelled. While the immediate aerial threat to Kyiv has passed, the persistent pattern of high-volume drone and missile attacks dictates that RF will likely launch another large-scale aerial campaign within 24-48 hours, targeting critical infrastructure across Ukraine, potentially including Kyiv again. Decision Point: UAF Air Force Command must conduct a rapid post-action review of the Kyiv defense, assessing munition expenditure, system performance, and potential vulnerabilities. This information will inform preparedness for the next anticipated wave and any re-allocation of air defense assets. The confirmed downing of a UAV over Kyiv overnight necessitates an immediate review of air defense effectiveness, munition expenditure, and any new RF drone tactics or approach vectors identified should be immediately integrated into air defense protocols. The mass drone attack on Pavlohrad necessitates a similar immediate review and adjustment of air defense posture in that region. The reported group of UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast heading south indicates an immediate, ongoing decision point for UAF Air Defense to track and intercept. UAF Air Defense must continue to respond to RF aerial attacks on Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, and adapt to disruptions in Kyiv public transport payment systems caused by attacks. UAF Air Defense must assess the capabilities of new Pantsir-SMD SAM systems delivered to RF forces and adapt counter-tactics. UAF Air Defense must continue to assess and counter RF drone reconnaissance, as indicated by the "Rubikon" drone. UAF must assess the impact of RF drone strikes in Belgorod Oblast on civilian morale and infrastructure, and factor this into broader defensive strategies for border regions.
• Hybrid Operations: RF IO and intelligence operations will be continuous. Decision Point: UAF STRATCOM and CI must proactively counter RF narratives and conduct immediate sweeps following any new intelligence threats, especially concerning C2 integrity, and strengthen physical and cyber defenses. The new law on humanitarian transport will require rapid implementation to mitigate disruption. The appeal from the wounded soldier requires an urgent response to address potential morale issues. Lavrov's statements will require careful counter-narratives. The incident with the "kolkhoz woman" and any associated targeting of businesses by RF activists will need to be monitored. UAF STRATCOM must immediately integrate the narrative of the first PURL weapons delivery to bolster morale and deter RF IO efforts. Prepare and disseminate counter-narratives against RF claims regarding "Myrotvorets" and Russian children. Immediately address and refute any RF amplification of alleged "conflict between GUR and the President's Office" to maintain internal cohesion. Promote UAF efforts in providing mental health support to service members and veterans. Counter RF IO about NATO aggression and Polish fears. Actively refute RF IO linking "terrorism" to UAF, especially concerning the "Timely Terrorist Attack" video by "Рыбарь." Immediately counter RF IO narratives (e.g., Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z) amplifying Trump's "no ceasefire" statement, reframing it as a recognition of Putin's unwillingness to negotiate, and emphasizing UAF's continued resolve. UAF STRATCOM should prepare to preemptively counter or refute RF IO narratives that may arise from the Voronezh school attack (ASTRA) or the Khimki fraud detention (TASS), framing them within the context of RF's internal repression and corruption, rather than allowing RF to project an image of stability. Immediately counter RF IO narratives (TASS) portraying the US as a warmonger due to the Gaza ceasefire veto, emphasizing the complexities of the conflict and Ukraine's alignment with international law. Develop specific counter-narratives to the inflammatory rhetoric from Alex Parker Returns (Navalny zombie meme) to delegitimize RF-aligned propaganda and maintain morale. Address Trump's statements (РБК-Україна) about the "terrible" relationship between Putin and Zelenskyy by emphasizing Ukrainian unity against external aggression and the unprovoked nature of the conflict. UAF STRATCOM should proactively counter any RF attempts to exploit Trump's comments on drones in Poland, framing them within the context of RF's aggressive actions and the necessity of NATO vigilance. Discredit RF IO (ТАСС) that criticizes international aid as "begging," emphasizing the rightful support for a sovereign nation under attack. Leverage the visible patriotic display at the Motherland Monument to reinforce national unity and resilience. Address and refute the Alex Parker Returns claim about Rostec servicing UAF helicopters, highlighting it as a clear disinformation tactic intended to sow distrust. Proactively counter RF IO regarding their challenge to the MH17 decision, emphasizing the international community's findings. UAF STRATCOM should develop narratives that highlight internal RF leadership changes (Kozak's dismissal) as potential signs of weakness or internal re-shuffling rather than strength. UAF STRATCOM should monitor and potentially leverage any internal RF dissent or criticism surrounding proposals like "restaurant contributions" to highlight potential public fatigue or economic strain. UAF STRATCOM should be prepared to counter RF IO narratives that use distracting civilian news (S7 uniforms, TikTok) to divert attention from the conflict, by re-centering focus on the ongoing war and its realities. UAF STRATCOM should prepare to counter RF's amplification of Trump's "no ceasefire" statement by emphasizing that Ukraine remains committed to defending its sovereignty and will not yield to pressure. UAF STRATCOM should also counter RF IO narratives that promote narratives of global economic crisis or Russian economic stability (e.g., Siluanov's statements, Business Insider report) by highlighting the true costs of the war on Russia's economy and the resilience of the Ukrainian economy with international support. Leverage the "Flamingo" missile production announcement to project strength and self-reliance. A critical immediate decision point for UAF STRATCOM is to rapidly counter the RF IO narrative (Операция Z) that a former UAF officer is commanding the Kupiansk assault, as this aims to sow internal distrust. Decision Point: UAF STRATCOM must immediately analyze and counter RF IO narratives emerging from the Kyiv drone attack (e.g., RF claims of successful hits vs. UAF reports of debris damage). Rapid, fact-based communication is essential to maintain public trust and international support. Monitoring and countering distracting or foreign-focused RF IO (e.g., MI6 darknet portal, IAEA abstentions) is also crucial. UAF STRATCOM must immediately prepare counter-narratives to RF IO promoting social welfare initiatives (e.g., maternity capital increase, family capital) to prevent these from bolstering RF domestic support or distracting from RF aggression. UAF STRATCOM must immediately address the new RF IO narrative (Операция Z) regarding military and civilian salary disparities in Ukraine, presenting factual information on UAF remuneration and support, and highlighting the unified national resolve. UAF STRATCOM must immediately prepare to counter RF IO (TASS claims) regarding UAF abandoning NATO weapons in Zaporizhzhia Oblast by emphasizing UAF resilience and the effective use of Western aid. STRATCOM should actively highlight continued high-level engagement with NATO, such as the Umierov-Turner meeting, to reinforce narratives of strong international support and progress on security guarantees, directly countering RF narratives of isolation or abandonment. UAF STRATCOM must immediately develop and disseminate counter-narratives to RF IO efforts that link the Ukraine conflict's resolution to Western political shifts (e.g., Vodolatsky's statements), emphasizing Ukrainian agency and international law. Simultaneously, UAF STRATCOM must frame RF's internal security narratives (General Kirillov murder case) as evidence of growing internal instability or repression within Russia. UAF STRATCOM must immediately prepare responses to RF's renewed legal challenges concerning MH17 at the UN Court, emphasizing accountability and established international findings. UAF STRATCOM must immediately counter RF IO claims of advances in Kupiansk (TASS) by highlighting successful UAF defensive operations and the heavy cost to RF. UAF STRATCOM should proactively monitor and, if necessary, counter narratives that feature advanced military technologies (such as China's armed robot dogs) to prevent their use as a psychological tool by RF IO. UAF STRATCOM should immediately address the RF IO narratives surrounding Trump's alleged refusal of military aid to Taiwan for a deal with China, contextualizing it within global power dynamics and reaffirming the importance of international support for Ukraine (РБК-Україна). UAF STRATCOM must immediately prepare counter-narratives to the RF IO video claiming a Croatian citizen surrendered from UAF, emphasizing the diverse and motivated composition of UAF forces and the continued fight. UAF STRATCOM should monitor Рыбарь's "Chronicle of the SMO" for new narratives or claims and prepare rapid, factual counter-messaging. UAF STRATCOM must immediately counter RF IO leveraging the Netherlands' potential exclusion of Ukrainian male refugees from housing, emphasizing continued international support while acknowledging individual national policies. UAF STRATCOM must immediately counter RF IO leveraging geopolitical accusations (Bornholm) to demonize NATO, reinforcing Ukraine's alignment with international norms and defensive alliances. UAF STRATCOM must immediately verify and, if necessary, counter RF claims of entering Yampil, DNR, with factual information and demonstrate continued defensive actions. UAF STRATCOM should leverage the "Два майора" video (despite its RF origin) to highlight UAF's effective and intense use of modern tactics (drones, artillery) against RF positions in Nesterianka, turning an RF narrative into a UAF morale booster and demonstrating combat effectiveness. UAF STRATCOM must immediately highlight the 1150 RF casualties in 24 hours (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ) as a major success and counter RF attempts to portray successful aid deliveries to their frontline units as proof of popular support. UAF STRATCOM must immediately leverage the IAEA resolution on Zaporizhzhia NPP as a diplomatic victory and a call for international accountability. UAF STRATCOM must immediately address RF IO claiming the blocking of Ukrainian draft evaders in Poland, emphasizing the efforts to repatriate individuals for military service and refuting any implied lack of commitment. UAF STRATCOM should monitor the US veto on the Gaza ceasefire and prepare a nuanced response that aligns with Ukrainian diplomatic positions, countering RF attempts to exploit it for anti-Western propaganda. UAF STRATCOM should promote the controlled situation in Kryvyi Rih as a sign of stability and UAF effectiveness. UAF STRATCOM must immediately counter RF IO claims of successful operations in Volchansk (Операция Z) by highlighting UAF resilience and the costs of RF attacks, and emphasize RF's use of incendiary munitions as a war crime. UAF STRATCOM must immediately highlight RF's infliction of civilian casualties in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts (Оперативний ЗСУ, Запорізька ОВА) to underscore RF aggression and humanitarian violations, and highlight disruptions to Kyiv public transport payment systems. UAF STRATCOM should leverage the successful UAF fundraising efforts (STERNENKO) to boost morale and demonstrate national unity. UAF STRATCOM should highlight the EU's accelerated rejection of Russian LNG (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) as a diplomatic victory and a sign of economic pressure on Russia. UAF STRATCOM should monitor and counter RF IO promoting foreign military technology (e.g., Israel's Iron Beam) to prevent any perceived implications for RF's own capabilities. UAF STRATCOM should highlight UAF SSO deep strikes against RF logistics hubs (Kursk Oblast) as evidence of UAF offensive capability and effectiveness.
• Naval Exercises: Continuous, particularly in Pacific/Arctic regions. Decision Point: Continue to monitor for any RF naval deployments or exercises that could be re-tasked for operations in the Black Sea or Baltic Sea, or any that involve strategic long-range missile capabilities. RF's Pacific Fleet nuclear submarine drills demonstrate continued strategic naval readiness, but no immediate impact on Ukraine is projected.

INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CR)

1. Verification of RF Territorial Claims (CRITICAL - PRIORITY 1)

• Gap: Independent verification of RF claims regarding full control of Serebryansky forestry (Lyman axis) and the extent of RF penetration into Kupiansk's urban quarters, and the "liberation of Novonikolaevka," "Malaya Tokmachka," and "Otradnoye," and advances in Dnipropetrovsk/Eastern Zaporizhzhia, specifically Novoivanovka on the Southern Donetsk direction, claimed gains in the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) agglomeration, and the alleged breakthrough to Zaporizhzhia via Kamyanske and Plavni. Also, verify RF claims (TASS) of UAF forces abandoning NATO weapons during retreat in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Verify RF claims of advances near Kucherovka and Petropavlovka, clearing a tree line and destroying a UAF fortified area in the Kupiansk sector. CRITICALLY, verify RF claims of the army breaking through defenses and entering Yampil, DNR. CRITICALLY, verify RF claims of the 1009th regiment destroying UAF infantry in Volchansk, and specifically identify the extent of RF ground advances and the use of incendiary munitions in that area. Verify RF claims of SOF destroying UAF militants on the Vremevsky direction.
• Requirement: Task all-source ISR (SAR, EO/IR satellite imagery, drone overflights, HUMINT/SIGINT intercepts) to establish precise Lines of Contact (LOCs), confirm territorial control, and identify any UAF encirclement threats. Prioritize real-time imagery from these sectors.

2. Attribution and Network of Lviv Wiretap (CRITICAL - PRIORITY 2)

• Gap: Definitive attribution of the listening device in Lviv Mayor's office to RF intelligence agencies and identification of the full network involved.
• Requirement: Immediate, comprehensive counter-intelligence (CI) investigation, including forensic analysis of the device, technical surveillance counter-measures (TSCM) sweeps of all sensitive government/military facilities, and HUMINT collection on potential collaborators. This is a critical C2 protection requirement.

3. RF "Shahed" Drone Launch Facility (CRITICAL - PRIORITY 3)

• Gap: Verification of the newly reported "Shahed" drone launch facility (РБК-Україна, OSINT-analyst Brady Africk) in Bryansk Oblast, its exact location, capacity, and operational status. Confirm if it is a new facility or an adaptation of an existing one.
• Requirement: Task satellite imagery and SIGINT assets to confirm the existence and characteristics of this facility. Assess its potential impact on RF drone strike capabilities and logistics, especially for northern Ukraine.

4. Impact Assessment of RF Railway Strikes (HIGH - PRIORITY 4)

• Gap: Detailed Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the impact of RF strikes on Ukrainian railway infrastructure in Poltava and other regions, specifically regarding operational capacity and repair timelines.
• Requirement: Obtain specific imagery and technical reports on damaged railway sections, assessment of repair timelines, and impact on UAF logistics flow. Monitor RF intelligence for follow-up targeting.

5. UAF Morale and Sustainment Issues (HIGH - PRIORITY 5)

• Gap: Full assessment of the scope and depth of morale and sustainment issues among UAF personnel, as highlighted by the wounded soldier's appeal and any similar reports. Assess the impact of RF's financial incentives for contract soldiers on UAF personnel retention and morale. Specifically investigate the new RF IO narrative (Операция Z) regarding military and civilian salary disparities in Ukraine and its impact on UAF personnel morale and recruitment.
• Requirement: Conduct targeted HUMINT collection among UAF personnel (focusing on non-sensitive issues), analyze social media for similar sentiments, and review internal reports on pay, benefits, and support systems to identify systemic issues impacting morale and readiness.

6. Verification of RF Casualties/Losses and Atrocity Claims (MEDIUM - PRIORITY 6)

• Gap: Independent verification of claims of 18 RF 35th Combined Arms Army officers killed in Zaporizhzhia due to sabotage (while the list of names adds credibility, the sabotage aspect remains unconfirmed) and the death of the 18-year-old son of a mobilized soldier. Verification of the OMON casualties in Oryol Oblast. Critically, independent verification of RF claims of UAF attacking an ambulance and deliberately killing a civilian with an FPV drone. Verification of the highly exaggerated casualty exchange ratios, and Putin's claim of 700k personnel on the line of combat. Verification of the specific charges and contexts of the captured RF soldiers discussing murder (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС). Verification of UAF casualties from the Iskander strike near Druzhkivka. Verification of "3 dead fighters" from the Kadyrov_95 video. Verification of the RF tank destruction footage posted by Два майора to confirm unit and location. Verification of "military truck on fire" incident and its attribution from Военкор Котенок's message. Verify the exact unit and location of RF medical deficit, as claimed by Военкор Котенок, to assess potential RF combat strain and operational tempo. Verify the specific charges and contexts of the RF casualties depicted in БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's new photo messages. Verify the destruction of the UAF M109A5 howitzer near Konstantinovka (Colonelcassad), including the specific unit affected and the munition used. Conduct BDA on the decomposing bodies shown in Alex Parker Returns's video, including unit identification and estimated time of death, to ascertain RF combat losses. Verify the destruction of the UAF DRG and "Baba-Yaga" heavy hexacopter on the right bank of the Dnieper in Kherson Oblast while attempting to cross to the left bank (Colonelcassad), including unit affiliation and specific location. Verify the claims from the Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) video of UAF drones striking RF military equipment in Zaporizhzhia, to assess RF losses. Verify the UAF claim of 1150 RF personnel neutralized in the last 24 hours (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ). Verify RF claims of 4 drones destroyed over Crimea (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ASTRA). Verify claims of RF 1009th regiment destroying UAF infantry in Volchansk and any associated UAF casualties. Verify any specific UAF casualties resulting from RF SOF operations on the Vremevsky direction. Verify civilian casualties from RF drone strikes in Belgorod Oblast (ASTRA).
• Requirement: Cross-reference UAF claims with available SIGINT, social media monitoring (RF casualty reports/obituaries), and satellite imagery for any large gatherings (funerals) or changes in command personnel. Investigate RF atrocity claims through open-source forensics, satellite imagery of claimed locations, and HUMINT/SIGINT if possible, to counter disinformation rapidly. Conduct BDA for the Druzhkivka strike using imagery and HUMINT.

7. RF Recruitment Practices and Force Quality (MEDIUM - PRIORITY 7)

• Gap: Understanding the full extent and impact of RF's recruitment practices involving criminals (e.g., offering military service in lieu of punishment for serious crimes) on overall force quality, discipline, and unit cohesion. The potential for utilizing North Korean personnel on Russian borders. The extent and effectiveness of foreign mercenary recruitment (e.g., Cubans, Croatians).
• Requirement: Monitor Russian legal system and social media for further instances and public reaction to these practices, and assess the potential implications for RF military discipline and composition through HUMINT from captured personnel and defectors. Monitor any developments regarding North Korean deployment in Russia. Analyze HUMINT from captured foreign mercenaries to understand recruitment, training, and operational realities. Interrogate the claimed captured Croatian citizen to gain insights into RF recruitment and treatment of foreign fighters.

8. Redeployment of Zapad-2025 Forces (MEDIUM - PRIORITY 8)

• Gap: Confirming the scale and destination of redeployments of forces involved in "Zapad-2025" exercises, specifically if they are being integrated into active combat operations against Kyiv or other axes, as claimed by RF IO (Janus Putkonen).
• Requirement: Utilize satellite imagery, SIGINT, and open-source intelligence to track significant troop movements from Belarusian training grounds and other "Zapad-2025" exercise areas.

9. Internal Ukrainian Information Environment (MEDIUM - PRIORITY 9)

• Gap: Assess the credibility and impact of reports regarding alleged "conflict between GUR and the President's Office" on Ukrainian public sentiment and military cohesion. Assess the impact of the RF IO narrative on military-civilian salary disparities on UAF morale.
• Requirement: Monitor internal Ukrainian media, social media, and HUMINT to gauge public reaction and verify or refute the existence and extent of any such internal tensions. Coordinate with UAF STRATCOM for appropriate counter-messaging.

10. RF Leadership of Kupiansk Assault (LOW - PRIORITY 10)

• Gap: Verification of the claim that a former Ukrainian brigadier general who betrayed Ukraine in 2014 is commanding the assault on Kupiansk. Assess his specific expertise and potential impact on operations.
• Requirement: Task HUMINT from captured RF personnel in the Kupiansk sector and SIGINT to identify the commander. If confirmed, assess the intelligence implications for UAF defensive strategies in the region.

11. "Gerbera" UAV Fragment in Latvia (LOW - PRIORITY 11)

• Gap: Confirm the origin, specific model, and intended flight path of the "Gerbera" UAV fragment found in Latvia. Assess whether it was a failed operational drone or a reconnaissance asset.
• Requirement: Coordinate with Latvian authorities for forensic analysis of the drone fragment. Review flight patterns and RF launches to identify potential launch sites and operational intent.

12. Alleged Rostec Servicing of UAF Helicopters (LOW - PRIORITY 12)

• Gap: Verify the claim by Alex Parker Returns (RF IO) that Rostec-affiliated entities are servicing UAF Mi-8MT/MTB helicopters via a UAE-registered company.
• Requirement: Conduct open-source intelligence on AAL Group Ltd., cross-reference with UAF maintenance logs and procurement records (if accessible), and investigate potential illicit supply chains or RF disinformation tactics.

13. RF Leadership Personnel Change (LOW - PRIORITY 13)

• Gap: Assess the reasons behind Dmitry Kozak's release from his position as Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration, and its potential impact on RF policy towards Ukraine or internal power dynamics.
• Requirement: Monitor Russian political analysis, insider reports, and official statements for insights into Kozak's departure. Assess if this signifies a shift in policy or merely a bureaucratic change.

14. Impact of "Restaurant Contributions for SVO" (LOW - PRIORITY 14)

• Gap: Determine the genuine intent and likely impact of the proposal to introduce contributions from restaurant checks for SVO needs, and the extent of public support or opposition within Russia.
• Requirement: Monitor Russian social media, public opinion polls (if available), and state media commentary to gauge the public's reaction and the likelihood of such a measure being implemented and its effect on RF war funding and public sentiment.

15. Ukraine's "Flamingo" Missile Production (LOW - PRIORITY 15)

• Gap: Independent verification of Ukraine's current and projected "Flamingo" missile production rates (50 per month, aiming for 7 daily by year-end). Assess the type and capabilities of these missiles.
• Requirement: Conduct open-source intelligence on the company-developer and the missile type. Where possible, use SIGINT or imagery to confirm production facilities or launch activity.

16. BDA of Kyiv Drone Attack and Tactical Assessment (CRITICAL - PRIORITY 1)

• Gap: Immediate Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) of the drone attack on Kyiv. Confirm the full extent of damage to the trolleybus network in Shevchenkivskyi district and any other potential impacts from drone debris or air defense actions. Verify the claim by Николаевский Ванёк that all "mopeds" were shot down. Assess the effectiveness of UAF air defense response in terms of interception rates and damage mitigation. Specifically assess the extent of disruptions to card payments and ticket validation in Kyiv public transport and their impact.
• Requirement: Rapid deployment of emergency services for BDA and casualty assessment. Prioritize forensic analysis of any recovered drone debris. Conduct real-time analysis of air defense engagement data and post-strike imagery. Expedite a full BDA report for Kyiv, including verification of full drone interception and assessment of repair timelines for damaged infrastructure.

17. RF Naval Production (LOW - PRIORITY 16)

• Gap: Verify the official launch and current status of the "Strelok" missile boat (Project 12418). Assess the implications of its long construction period for RF naval modernization efforts and overall fleet readiness.
• Requirement: Task open-source intelligence and imagery to confirm the official launch ceremony, if any, and track the vessel's progress through sea trials and operational deployment. Analyze shipbuilding capacity reports for trends.

18. RF Social Welfare Proposals (LOW - PRIORITY 17)

• Gap: Assess the true intent and potential impact of RF proposals to increase maternity capital and other social support measures on public sentiment and economic stability, particularly as a long-term strategy amidst the conflict. Specifically, assess the potential impact of the proposed "family capital" on Russian demographics and public sentiment.
• Requirement: Monitor Russian official announcements, state media coverage, and public discourse to gauge the sincerity and likely effectiveness of these proposals. Analyze their budgetary implications and potential for bolstering internal support.

19. RF Information Control (LOW - PRIORITY 18)

• Gap: Assess the overall impact of Roskomnadzor's actions (e.g., blocking fraudulent SIM cards) on the RF domestic information environment, particularly regarding its effect on dissent, information flow, and potential for use against internal opposition. Specifically, evaluate the effectiveness and public reception of the weekly updates on available Russian services during mobile network restrictions.
• Requirement: Monitor Russian independent media (where available), human rights reports, and social media discussions to understand the broader implications of these information control measures.

20. RF Internal Security "Terrorist Community" Claims (LOW - PRIORITY 19)

• Gap: Verify the details and independence of RF claims regarding the General Kirillov murder suspects being accused of organizing a terrorist community. Assess the extent to which this is a genuine internal security development versus an IO narrative.
• Requirement: Monitor Russian official legal proceedings, independent reporting (if any), and human rights assessments to ascertain the credibility of these accusations and their implications for RF internal security messaging.

21. RF IO on Conflict Resolution Timeline (LOW - PRIORITY 20)

• Gap: Analyze the deeper implications of statements like Viktor Vodolatsky's regarding the conflict's resolution being tied to US political outcomes. Understand the specific target audience and intended effect of this messaging.
• Requirement: Monitor international and Russian political commentary, and public sentiment analysis to gauge the reception and impact of such narratives on both domestic and international audiences. Assess how this shapes expectations for the conflict's duration.

22. RF Strategic Naval Exercises (LOW - PRIORITY 21)

• Gap: Assess the full scope and strategic implications of the cruise missile launches by RF's Pacific Fleet nuclear submarines. Specifically, determine if these exercises indicate new capabilities or shifts in strategic posture relevant to global power projection.
• Requirement: Monitor international naval intelligence reports, satellite imagery, and naval aviation activity in the Okhotsk Sea and surrounding areas. Analyze missile types used for range and payload implications.

23. RF Legal Challenge to MH17 Decision (LOW - PRIORITY 22)

• Gap: Understand the specific legal arguments and diplomatic strategy behind Russia's appeal of the ICAO decision regarding MH17 at the UN Court. Assess the potential international impact of this legal challenge.
• Requirement: Monitor UN Court proceedings, official statements from RF Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and international legal commentary to analyze the arguments and potential outcomes.

24. China's "Robot Dog" Weaponization (LOW - PRIORITY 23)

• Gap: While not a direct RF capability, assess the implications of China's "robot dog" weaponization demonstrations (Colonelcassad video) for potential future military technologies available to RF or future battlefield adaptations. Specifically, assess the capabilities of the robotic platforms shown at the Chinese police equipment exhibition, and their potential for dual military/security use.
• Requirement: Monitor open-source reporting and military technology assessments on unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) development and weaponization, particularly from countries aligned with RF. Evaluate potential for reverse engineering or direct acquisition by RF.

25. Trump's Policy on Taiwan and China (LOW - PRIORITY 24)

• Gap: Analyze the broader implications of Trump's alleged refusal of military aid to Taiwan for a deal with China on global geopolitical alignments and Western unity, particularly as it relates to support for Ukraine.
• Requirement: Monitor international political analysis, statements from US and Chinese officials, and reactions from allied nations to assess the real and perceived shifts in global power dynamics.

26. RF Daily Situation Summary by Rybar (LOW - PRIORITY 25)

• Gap: Continuously monitor and analyze Рыбарь's "Chronicle of the SMO" for new or evolving RF narratives, operational claims, and potential intelligence gaps that can be derived from RF's structured information dissemination.
• Requirement: Regular review of Рыбарь's posts for content, tone, and specific claims that may indicate shifts in RF strategy, propaganda focus, or emerging capabilities.

27. Netherlands Refugee Policy (LOW - PRIORITY 26)

• Gap: Assess the exact scope and proposed implementation timeline for the Netherlands' potential exclusion of Ukrainian male refugees from the housing system. Understand the rationale behind the policy and potential exceptions.
• Requirement: Monitor official Dutch government statements, legislative proposals, and media reports for detailed information. Gather insights from humanitarian organizations on the ground regarding the impact on Ukrainian refugees.

28. RF Accusations Regarding Bornholm (LOW - PRIORITY 27)

• Gap: Understand the specific "threats to Russian security" that RF alleges Denmark is creating using Bornholm Island. Identify any specific military activities or infrastructure RF is referencing.
• Requirement: Monitor RF state media and diplomatic statements for elaboration on these claims. Compare with open-source intelligence on Danish military presence or activities on Bornholm.

29. UAF Tactical Activity in Nesterianka (LOW - PRIORITY 28)

• Gap: Verify the details of the reported UAF artillery and drone attacks on RF positions in Nesterianka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, as claimed by "Два майора." Confirm the types and quantities of munitions used and the effectiveness of these attacks.
• Requirement: Task all-source ISR (drone footage, HUMINT, SIGINT) to corroborate RF claims and assess the actual impact of UAF operations in this sector.

30. RF Mine Warfare Tactics (LOW - PRIORITY 29)

• Gap: Assess the prevalence and effectiveness of RF's booby-trap tactics, particularly "mines with water," in Zaporizhzhia Oblast as claimed by TASS. Understand the specific types of devices and their impact on UAF personnel.
• Requirement: Gather HUMINT from frontline units in Zaporizhzhia, forensic analysis of recovered devices, and intelligence from EOD teams.

31. RF Reliance on Civilian Donations (LOW - PRIORITY 30)

• Gap: Assess the extent to which RF frontline units are reliant on civilian donations for critical supplies (medical equipment, radios) on axes like Pokrovsk and Dnipropetrovsk, as depicted in "Военкоры Русской Весны" videos. Is this supplementary or indicative of systemic logistical failures?
• Requirement: Monitor RF military bloggers and social media for further fundraising appeals. Collect HUMINT from captured RF personnel regarding their supply lines and reliance on external aid.

32. Moscow Weather Impact (LOW - PRIORITY 31)

• Gap: Assess if the predicted dry September weather in Moscow could have any indirect operational or strategic implications for RF, such as impact on agricultural output or water resources, even if not directly military.
• Requirement: Monitor agricultural reports and environmental data for Moscow and surrounding regions.

33. Kryvyi Rih Stability (LOW - PRIORITY 32)

• Gap: Continuously monitor the security situation in Kryvyi Rih to ensure it remains "controlled" as reported by Oleksandr Vilkul. Identify any subtle RF infiltration attempts or sabotage efforts.
• Requirement: Maintain active local HUMINT networks and enhanced security patrols.

34. Israel's Iron Beam Development (LOW - PRIORITY 33)

• Gap: While not directly affecting UAF operations, assess the true readiness and capabilities of Israel's Iron Beam laser air defense system, as reported by RF sources. Understand its potential long-term implications for air defense doctrines and technology acquisition by other nations, including RF.
• Requirement: Monitor open-source reporting and defense analyses regarding the Iron Beam system.

35. UAF SSO Deep Strike in Kursk Oblast (LOW - PRIORITY 34)

• Gap: Obtain Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the UAF SSO strike on the RF 810th Separate Marine Brigade logistics hub in Kursk Oblast. Confirm the types and quantities of equipment destroyed and the impact on RF logistical capabilities.
• Requirement: Task all-source ISR (satellite imagery, SIGINT, HUMINT) to verify UAF claims and assess the strategic impact of the strike.

ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Immediate Defensive Posture Adjustments for Kupiansk-Lyman, Southern Donetsk, Pokrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Volchansk, and Yampil Axes:

   • Recommendation: Based on the high confidence of RF offensive pressure and potential encirclement threats in Serebryansky forestry and urban penetration in Kupiansk, and ongoing heavy fighting in Novoivanovka on the Southern Donetsk axis, continued pressure on Pokrovsk, and renewed push towards Zaporizhzhia, and the claimed entry into Yampil and sustained ground assaults in Volchansk, conduct immediate, localized force adjustments. Reinforce key defensive positions with readily available reserves, bolster fire support, and establish multiple fallback positions. Focus on counter-infiltration tactics in urban environments. Prioritize protection against precision missile strikes on tactical formations (e.g., Iskander cluster munitions). Leverage effective tactical drone operations (e.g., "Shadow" unit, 1st Assault Battalion, "STRIKS" unit, Mykolaiv marines' VARTOVI battalion, 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds", effective drone/artillery strikes in Nesterianka) for enhanced ISR and precision interdiction of RF advances. Monitor and respond to RF psychological operations (e.g., "evacuation" leaflets in Sumy Oblast) to prevent panic and maintain civilian resilience. Immediately verify and counter RF claims of advances near Kucherovka and Petropavlovka in Kupiansk through tactical intelligence and defensive adjustments. Urgently verify and, if necessary, reinforce defenses in the Yampil sector. Implement counter-measures against incendiary munitions and reinforce defenses in Volchansk. Implement enhanced mine-clearing procedures and booby-trap awareness for all ground units, particularly in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Assess and counter RF SOF operations on the Vremevsky direction.
   • Action: Commanders in the Kupiansk, Lyman, Southern Donetsk, Pokrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Volchansk, and Yampil sectors are to review current defensive plans, pre-position fire assets, and ensure clear lines of communication and withdrawal routes for threatened units. Implement enhanced anti-infiltration measures for urban defense, leveraging lessons learned and available counter-drone technologies. Prioritize aerial ISR to verify RF claims of territorial gains (e.g., Otradnoye, Serebryansky forestry, Novoivanovka, Pokrovsk, Kamyanske, Plavni, Yampil, Volchansk). Disperse tactical formations to mitigate the impact of cluster munition strikes. Integrate FPV drone units into forward defensive and reconnaissance roles. Monitor Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's reports and respond to high combat intensity. Commanders must specifically address the threat of RF FPV drone and artillery strikes against UAF heavy artillery, as seen near Konstantinovka, and implement counter-battery measures and dispersal tactics. Maintain vigilance against RF ground activity in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and reinforce defensive lines where necessary. Implement enhanced counter-DRG measures, particularly against heavy drones like "Baba Yaga," along riverine crossings such as the Dnieper. Conduct an immediate internal assessment regarding the alleged former UAF officer commanding the Kupiansk assault to identify and mitigate any C2 vulnerabilities.

2. Nationwide CI Alert & Sweeps:

   • Recommendation: Elevate CI alert status across all military and government institutions. Initiate an immediate and systematic program of TSCM sweeps for listening devices and other forms of electronic espionage, prioritizing top-tier leadership offices and critical C2 centers. Continue aggressive prosecution of collaborators and RF agents, leveraging recent successes (e.g., Kherson "MIA RF" conviction, Novinsky detention, SBU agent detention). Address and investigate the bribery schemes within military medical commissions in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. Actively monitor for disinformation campaigns regarding internal UAF data security (e.g., e-Notariat leaks) and counter them rapidly. Investigate the claims of a former Ukrainian brigadier general commanding the Kupiansk assault as a potential CI breach. Investigate the Alex Parker Returns claim of Rostec servicing UAF helicopters as a potential new vector of hybrid warfare or a disinformation attempt. Heighten vigilance against recruitment efforts by hostile foreign intelligence services (e.g., MI6 darknet portal). Maintain vigilance against RF efforts to disrupt communications and control information, as indicated by Roskomnadzor's actions. Implement robust cybersecurity measures for UAF digital infrastructure. Investigate the claimed capture of a Croatian citizen from UAF in Zaporizhzhia, and develop counter-IO strategies.
   • Action: SBU and GUR CI elements are to coordinate a national program, sharing best practices and intelligence on RF espionage methods, and brief relevant personnel on enhanced personal security measures. Exploitation of the captured RF agent and Kharkiv spotter should be prioritized to identify broader networks. Investigate the judge from Marinka for potential collaboration. Prioritize investigation and action regarding Novinsky's alleged role as an "RPC curator in Ukraine." Ensure continued prosecution of war crimes, such as that of the FSB officer in Kherson. Implement stringent oversight and investigations into military medical commissions to root out corruption.

3. Strategic Communication Counter-Narrative for Kupiansk, Southern Donetsk, Pokrovsk, Yampil & RF Atrocity Claims:

   • Recommendation: Develop and disseminate a robust, fact-based counter-narrative to RF claims of UAF "chaos and disorganization" in Kupiansk, and emphasize the successful counter-offensive in Donetsk Oblast reported by President Zelenskyy (Pokrovsk/Dobropillya area) and the success of the 1st Assault Regiment. Highlight UAF resilience, successful tactical engagements (e.g., STRIKS unit, border guard strikes, Dobropillya counter-offensive, "Shadow" unit strikes, Mykolaiv marines' VARTOVI battalion, 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds", effective drone/artillery strikes in Nesterianka, and successful fundraising efforts like STERNENKO's, and the UAF SSO deep strike in Kursk Oblast) and controlled defensive actions, emphasizing the heavy cost to RF. Proactively counter RF narratives discrediting foreign fighters (including using HUMINT from captured individuals like the Cuban mercenary, and the recently claimed Croatian citizen) and undermining Western unity, and immediately address exaggerated casualty ratios and Putin's inflated troop numbers. Counter Lavrov's statements by emphasizing Ukraine's commitment to sovereignty and a just peace. Immediately address the civilian casualties from the Konstantinovka airstrike. Actively promote efforts to maintain communications resilience. Actively highlight and counter RF IO efforts to spin international statements, such as Trump's comments about Putin "letting him down." Leverage the arrival of the first US PURL weapons package to demonstrate continued, tangible international support and UAF capacity. Prepare and disseminate counter-narratives against RF claims regarding "Myrotvorets" and Russian children. Immediately address and refute any RF amplification of alleged "conflict between GUR and the President's Office" to maintain internal cohesion. Promote UAF efforts in providing mental health support to service members and veterans. Counter RF IO about NATO aggression and Polish fears. Actively refute RF IO linking "terrorism" to UAF, especially concerning the "Timely Terrorist Attack" video by "Рыбарь." Immediately counter RF IO narratives (e.g., Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z) amplifying Trump's "no ceasefire" statement, reframing it as a recognition of Putin's unwillingness to negotiate, and emphasizing UAF's continued resolve. UAF STRATCOM should prepare to preemptively counter or refute RF IO narratives that may arise from the Voronezh school attack (ASTRA) or the Khimki fraud detention (TASS), framing them within the context of RF's internal repression and corruption, rather than allowing RF to project an image of stability. Immediately counter RF IO narratives (TASS) portraying the US as a warmonger due to the Gaza ceasefire veto, emphasizing the complexities of the conflict and Ukraine's alignment with international law. Develop specific counter-narratives to the inflammatory rhetoric from Alex Parker Returns (Navalny zombie meme) to delegitimize RF-aligned propaganda and maintain morale. Address Trump's statements (РБК-Україна) about the "terrible" relationship between Putin and Zelenskyy by emphasizing Ukrainian unity against external aggression and the unprovoked nature of the conflict. UAF STRATCOM should proactively counter any RF attempts to exploit Trump's comments on drones in Poland, framing them within the context of RF's aggressive actions and the necessity of NATO vigilance. Discredit RF IO (ТАСС) that criticizes international aid as "begging," emphasizing the rightful support for a sovereign nation under attack. Leverage the visible patriotic display at the Motherland Monument to reinforce national unity and resilience. Address and refute the Alex Parker Returns claim about Rostec servicing UAF helicopters, highlighting it as a clear disinformation tactic intended to sow distrust. Proactively counter RF IO regarding their challenge to the MH17 decision, emphasizing the international community's findings. UAF STRATCOM should develop narratives that highlight internal RF leadership changes (Kozak's dismissal) as potential signs of weakness or internal re-shuffling rather than strength. UAF STRATCOM should monitor and potentially leverage any internal RF dissent or criticism surrounding proposals like "restaurant contributions" to highlight potential public fatigue or economic strain. UAF STRATCOM should be prepared to counter RF IO narratives that use distracting civilian news (S7 uniforms, TikTok) to divert attention from the conflict, by re-centering focus on the ongoing war and its realities. UAF STRATCOM should prepare to counter RF's amplification of Trump's "no ceasefire" statement by emphasizing that Ukraine remains committed to defending its sovereignty and will not yield to pressure. UAF STRATCOM should also counter RF IO narratives that promote narratives of global economic crisis or Russian economic stability (e.g., Siluanov's statements, Business Insider report) by highlighting the true costs of the war on Russia's economy and the resilience of the Ukrainian economy with international support. Leverage the "Flamingo" missile production announcement to project strength and self-reliance. Immediately prepare and disseminate strong counter-narratives to the RF IO claim (Операция Z) that a former UAF officer is commanding the Kupiansk assault, as this aims to sow internal distrust. STRATCOM must immediately disseminate confirmed information regarding the successful interception of RF drones over Kyiv and the limited damage from debris (not direct impacts) to counter RF claims of significant success. Proactively address RF IO attempts to dehumanize Ukrainians (НгП раZVедка) and dismiss UAF resilience. Emphasize the strong international consensus against RF aggression, countering RF claims of international support (IAEA abstentions). UAF STRATCOM must immediately prepare counter-narratives to RF IO promoting social welfare initiatives (e.g., maternity capital increase, family capital) to prevent these from bolstering RF domestic support or distracting from RF aggression. UAF STRATCOM must immediately address the new RF IO narrative (Операция Z) regarding military and civilian salary disparities in Ukraine, presenting factual information on UAF remuneration and support, and highlighting the unified national resolve. UAF STRATCOM must immediately prepare to counter RF IO (TASS claims) regarding UAF abandoning NATO weapons in Zaporizhzhia Oblast by emphasizing UAF resilience and the effective use of Western aid. STRATCOM should actively highlight recent high-level meetings with NATO (e.g., Umierov-Turner) to underscore strong international support and progress on security guarantees, directly countering RF narratives of isolation or abandonment. UAF STRATCOM must immediately develop and disseminate counter-narratives to RF IO efforts that link the Ukraine conflict's resolution to Western political shifts (e.g., Vodolatsky's statements), emphasizing Ukrainian agency and international law. Simultaneously, UAF STRATCOM must frame RF's internal security narratives (General Kirillov murder case) as evidence of growing internal instability or repression within Russia. UAF STRATCOM must immediately prepare responses to RF's renewed legal challenges concerning MH17 at the UN Court, emphasizing accountability and established international findings. UAF STRATCOM must immediately counter RF IO claims of advances in Kupiansk (TASS) by highlighting successful UAF defensive operations and the heavy cost to RF. UAF STRATCOM should proactively monitor and, if necessary, counter narratives that feature advanced military technologies (such as China's armed robot dogs) to prevent their use as a psychological tool by RF IO. UAF STRATCOM should immediately address the RF IO narratives surrounding Trump's alleged refusal of military aid to Taiwan for a deal with China, contextualizing it within global power dynamics and reaffirming the importance of international support for Ukraine (РБК-Україна). UAF STRATCOM must immediately prepare counter-narratives to the RF IO video claiming a Croatian citizen surrendered from UAF, emphasizing the diverse and motivated composition of UAF forces and the continued fight. UAF STRATCOM should monitor Рыбарь's "Chronicle of the SMO" for new narratives or claims and prepare rapid, factual counter-messaging. UAF STRATCOM must immediately counter RF IO leveraging the Netherlands' potential exclusion of Ukrainian male refugees from housing, emphasizing continued international support while acknowledging individual national policies. UAF STRATCOM must immediately counter RF IO leveraging geopolitical accusations (Bornholm) to demonize NATO, reinforcing Ukraine's alignment with international norms and defensive alliances. UAF STRATCOM must immediately verify and, if necessary, counter RF claims of entering Yampil, DNR, with factual information and demonstrate continued defensive actions. UAF STRATCOM should leverage the "Два майора" video (despite its RF origin) to highlight UAF's effective and intense use of modern tactics (drones, artillery) against RF positions in Nesterianka, turning an RF narrative into a UAF morale booster and demonstrating combat effectiveness. UAF STRATCOM must immediately highlight the 1150 RF casualties in 24 hours (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ) as a major success and counter RF attempts to portray successful aid deliveries to their frontline units as proof of popular support. UAF STRATCOM must immediately leverage the IAEA resolution on Zaporizhzhia NPP as a diplomatic victory and a call for international accountability. UAF STRATCOM must immediately address RF IO claiming the blocking of Ukrainian draft evaders in Poland, emphasizing the efforts to repatriate individuals for military service and refuting any implied lack of commitment. UAF STRATCOM should monitor the US veto on the Gaza ceasefire and prepare a nuanced response that aligns with Ukrainian diplomatic positions, countering RF attempts to exploit it for anti-Western propaganda. UAF STRATCOM should promote the controlled situation in Kryvyi Rih as a sign of stability and UAF effectiveness. UAF STRATCOM must immediately counter RF IO claims of successful operations in Volchansk (Операция Z) by highlighting UAF resilience and the costs of RF attacks, and emphasize RF's use of incendiary munitions as a war crime. UAF STRATCOM must immediately highlight RF's infliction of civilian casualties in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts (Оперативний ЗСУ, Запорізька ОВА) to underscore RF aggression and humanitarian violations, and highlight disruptions to Kyiv public transport payment systems. UAF STRATCOM should leverage the successful UAF fundraising efforts (STERNENKO) to boost morale and demonstrate national unity. UAF STRATCOM should highlight the EU's accelerated rejection of Russian LNG (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) as a diplomatic victory and a sign of economic pressure on Russia. UAF STRATCOM should monitor and counter RF IO promoting foreign military technology (e.g., Israel's Iron Beam) to prevent any perceived implications for RF's own capabilities. UAF STRATCOM should highlight UAF SSO deep strikes against RF logistics hubs (Kursk Oblast) as evidence of UAF offensive capability and effectiveness.

4. Prioritized Offensive Actions Against RF Rail Logistics:

   • Recommendation: Intensify deep strike and sabotage operations against RF railway infrastructure supporting frontline operations, particularly in border regions and occupied territories, in response to RF targeting of Ukrainian railways.
   • Action: GUR and SSO are to prioritize targets such as railway bridges, major switching yards, locomotive depots, and repair facilities to disrupt RF's ability to sustain its forces and compensate for Ukrainian rail damage.

5. Enhanced Air Defense for Critical Railway Infrastructure & Drone Cooperation:

   • Recommendation: Reallocate mobile air defense assets to better protect critical railway junctions, depots, and energy substations that power the railway network. Immediately operationalize the drone cooperation agreement with Poland to enhance early warning and interception capabilities. Maintain high alert for UAV threats, especially over Kyiv and now immediately for Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and the Kyiv region due to renewed КАБ activity and increased drone threats from the new Bryansk launch site. Integrate Prime Minister Shmyhal's stated goal of 1000 interceptor drones daily into immediate counter-UAV strategies. The confirmed drone impact in Solomianskyi district necessitates immediate damage assessment and emergency response. Air defense units across Ukraine must maintain heightened readiness due to the persistent and demonstrated RF intent for aerial attacks. Resources should be pre-positioned and ready for deployment. Expedite damage assessment and repairs to the trolleybus network in Shevchenkivskyi district. Elevate air defense readiness for Pavlohrad and all relevant urban centers in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Prioritize protection of civilian areas from aerial attacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, including Stepnohirsk, and ensure rapid response for civilian casualties.
   • Action: UAF Air Force and ground forces with organic air defense assets are to coordinate to establish overlapping coverage for key railway targets, anticipating future RF strikes, and deploying new interceptor drone technology where feasible. Integrate Polish drone observation data into UAF air defense networks without delay. Integrate any air defense capabilities provided by the PURL package immediately. Prioritize the protection of civilian infrastructure in areas prone to КАБ strikes (e.g., Konstantinovka, Vozdvyzhivka, Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk) and maintain public awareness via air alerts. Ensure immediate and robust air defense response to drone attacks, as demonstrated in Pavlohrad. Special attention should be given to Kyiv's air defense posture given the increased number of Shaheds reported. Following the overnight UAV downing over Kyiv, a rapid assessment of air defense effectiveness and munition expenditure must be conducted, and any new RF drone tactics or approach vectors identified should be immediately integrated into air defense protocols.

6. Address Internal Personnel Support and Morale:

   • Recommendation: UAF Command, working with the newly appointed Military Ombudsman, should immediately review and address the concerns regarding soldier pay, support for wounded personnel, and general welfare. Review and adjust compensation packages to remain competitive with the substantial financial incentives offered by RF. Acknowledge and promote grassroots support for the military (e.g., crowdfunding efforts for drones, STERNENKO's fundraising) to boost morale and highlight national unity. Specifically address the reported deficit of medics on the front (Военкор Котенок's video) by assessing current medical personnel strength and accelerating training or deployment of field medics. Formulate a clear and accurate public statement regarding military and civilian salary disparities, addressing the new RF IO narrative directly to maintain morale and prevent internal division. Monitor and counteract RF IO attempting to exploit the Netherlands' potential refugee policy changes to demoralize Ukrainian male soldiers.
   • Action: Implement transparent communication channels for soldiers to voice grievances, and initiate rapid reviews of compensation policies and support services to ensure fair treatment and maintain high morale, particularly among those serving on the front lines and those recovering from injuries. Actively promote the availability of mental health services for military personnel and their families.

7. Monitor North Korean Involvement:

   • Recommendation: Closely monitor any further public or intelligence reports regarding Russia's potential utilization of North Korean military or paramilitary personnel for border security or other roles.
   • Action: Direct HUMINT and SIGINT assets to collect on this potential development. Prepare contingency plans for dealing with such foreign military elements if deployed.

//END REPORT//