Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT

TIME: 182233Z SEP 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current operational picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (Confidence: HIGH)

RF forces maintain multi-axis pressure across the Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia axes, with heavy reciprocal battles in Sumy Oblast. RF claims unverified advances in Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, and occupation of the medical college area in Kupiansk, with military control and fortifications on the Velikoburlukskoye direction. RF claims a 5km advance on the Gulyaipole direction, entering Novoivanivka, and new positions south of Novoivanivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF claims full control of Serebryansky forestry, representing a significant territorial gain on the Lyman direction, if verified. Drone footage shows destroyed UAF equipment near Krasnoarmeysk and Dimitrov. RF continues map-based updates detailing advances around Konstantinovka, Chasov Yar, and Kleban-Byk Reservoir. RF sources amplify Deep State's report that RF forces are threatening to encircle UAF forces in Serebryansky forestry. RF posted tactical maps detailing claimed changes in battlefield geometry over the past 24 hours around Kupiansk. RF claims UAF "complains" about RF advances in Kupiansk, with RF sources amplifying reports of "chaos and disorganization" and a "failed defense." RF footage displays dynamic combat engagements in a forest environment, explosions, and smoke. Kotsnews posts video claiming "liberation of Novonikolaevka" with Russian assault troops detailing mine clearing. Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming soldiers of the 270th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Akhmat-Caucasus" destroyed enemy positions in Malaya Tokmachka area. ТАСС posts video claiming Tornado-S MLRS crews destroyed three temporary deployment points of a UAF brigade in Konstantinovka. RF IO claims to discredit UAF actions (e.g., ambulance hit, FPV drone killing a hostage) are circulating. New RF map updates continue to indicate claimed advances on multiple axes. MoD Russia posts video claiming Ka-52m helicopter strikes on AFU manpower and armored vehicles in the Sever Group of Forces area of responsibility. TASS reports fierce clashes near Konstantinovka, DNR. Colonelcassad reports a cluster Iskander strike on a UAF company tactical group near Druzhkivka. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming strikes on UAF positions on the Donetsk direction. Воин DV posts video detailing renewed artillery strikes and attacks on enemy personnel in the Polozhskoye direction by the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade. Два майора posts a video depicting an RF tank being destroyed by UAF forces, likely a recent engagement. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo message showing a tactical map of a contested area, suggesting ongoing ground combat and RF claims of UAF setbacks in Kupiansk. Colonelcassad posts video claiming successful FPV drone and artillery strikes by RF's 3rd Army Corps on a UAF 155mm M109A5 self-propelled howitzer near Konstantinovka, implying continued RF precision targeting of UAF heavy artillery. Воин DV posts a video claiming "hunting" by RF "CENTER" and "VOSTOK" groups in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with drone footage showing military vehicles and explosions, suggesting continued RF ground activity and pressure in this region. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports over 80 combat engagements in the last 24 hours. The Kramatorsk direction saw 15 RF assaults near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Mykolayivka, Stupochky, Bila Hora, and Andriivka, with UAF repelling 12. The Pokrovsk direction remains the hottest, with 28 assaults near Volodymyrivka, Zapovidne, Novoekonomichne, Shevchenko, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne, Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Vilne, Chervonyi Lyman, Myrnohrad, Rodynske, Promin, Zvirove, Molodetske, Novopidhorodne, Novopavlivka, and Filiya, with 20 repelled. On the Novopavlivka direction, 26 assaults were near Yalta, Shevchenko, Komyshuvakha, Vorone, Ternove, Novoivanivka, Filiya, Ivanivka, Iskra, Sichneve, Olhivske, and Poltavka, with 21 repelled. On the Orikhiv direction, 7 assaults occurred near Kamyanske and towards Novodanylivka, with 6 repelled. On the Kherson direction, UAF repelled 4 Russian army assaults. On the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions, UAF repelled 7 Russian army assaults. This indicates sustained and heavy RF pressure across all key axes, particularly Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka.

UAF has confirmed the liberation of Pankivka, Donetsk Oblast, and Zarichne. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Mykolayivka, Stupochky and Bila Hora on the Kramatorsk direction. Clashes were also reported near Scherbynivka, Katerynivka, Ivanopillya, Pleschiyivka, Rusyn Yar, and Poltavka on the Toretsk direction. On the Pokrovsk direction, clashes occurred near Volodymyrivka, Zapovidne, Novoekonomichne, Shevchenko, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne, Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Vilne, Chervonyi Lyman, Myrnohrad, Rodynske, Promin, Zvirove, Molodetske, Novopidhorodne, Novopavlivka, and Filiya. On the Novopavlivka direction, clashes were near Yalta, Shevchenko, Komyshuvakha, Vorone, Ternove, Novoivanivka, Filiya, Ivanivka, Iskra, Sichneve, Olhivske, and Poltavka. On the Orikhiv direction, clashes were near Kamyanske and towards Novodanylivka. UAF repelled 4 Russian army assaults on the Kherson direction and 7 Russian army assaults on the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. UAF reports eliminating a Russian breakthrough near Pokrovsk with ongoing cleanup operations. Drone footage from the 'Battle for Pokrovsk,' displays successful strikes against RF targets. UAF General Staff claims over 305,000 RF personnel neutralized since the start of the year. UAF "Pion" artillery is operating on the Donetsk direction. FPV drone footage of night combat operations by the 6th Battalion of the Azov Brigade shows thermal imagery of strikes. Kharkiv ODA Head, Oleg Synegubov, reports on shelling, attacks on populated areas, and successful counter-actions. UAF forces have flooded a gas pipe in Kupiansk, attempting to thwart RF infiltration, and deny RF claims of fighting in the city center. UAF 15th Separate Artillery Reconnaissance Brigade "Black Forest" successfully destroyed an RF Buk-M2 SAM system (video confirmed). UAF Special Operations Forces (SSO) have reportedly struck the Volgograd Oil Refinery. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts video claiming six accurate strikes by the "STRIKS" unit on the Southern Slobozhansky direction. Олександр Вілкул posts photo messages of the 77th Airmobile Brigade on the front. Оперативний ЗСУ posts drone footage showing Ukrainian forces identifying and striking a Russian artillery position and communication antenna in Kharkiv Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС highlights how the 1st Assault Regiment (1-й ОШП) "cut the pincers" of Russians near Dobropillya. President Zelenskyy met with soldiers of the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade participating in the defense of Myrnohrad and the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation, reporting 160 sq km liberated and 7 settlements freed. UAF's "Shadow" unit posts video of successful drone strikes on RF shelters ("укриттям"), indicating continued precision targeting of enemy fortifications. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts video showing the UAF 1st Assault Battalion holding its front line in Zaporizhzhia, destroying enemy forces "far from the line of contact" using FPV drones, indicating robust long-range defensive capabilities. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts video of "STRIKS" unit FPV drone operators from the 4th Border Guard Detachment destroying two enemy positions, a shelter, a BMP, and two vehicles (one laden with ammunition) on the Southern Slobozhansky direction. This highlights continued UAF tactical successes using FPV drones. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts photos of President Zelenskyy meeting with the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade at their command post, acknowledging their participation in the defense of Mirnohrad and the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video depicting drone footage of Ukrainian military positions, specifically trenches, being targeted and struck by munitions, with a logo of what appears to be a Ukrainian military insignia and a unit emblem with drones and an eagle, suggesting successful strikes against enemy positions. The caption reads "Окупантам не сховатися" (Occupiers cannot hide). Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a video compilation showing intense combat engagements from a drone's perspective on the Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Kupiansk directions, documenting numerous RF artillery strikes and personnel losses. This directly contradicts RF claims of widespread UAF setbacks and highlights the fierce, reciprocal nature of the fighting. Two Ukrainian reconnaissance companies, including the "VARTOVI" unmanned systems battalion of Mykolaiv marines, are actively engaging Russian military assets, targeting vehicle convoys, artillery, and infantry positions. UAF drone operators from the 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" successfully destroyed eight Russian assault troops on the Pokrovsk direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts an "IMMEDIATE ASSESSMENT" with no specific content, but indicates ongoing monitoring. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides an operational update for 22:00, 18.09.2025, confirming UAF repelled the majority of RF assaults across multiple axes, indicating successful defensive operations despite heavy pressure. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video showing the Motherland Monument in Kyiv illuminated with patriotic laser projections ("UNITY", "VOLIA"), indicating ongoing UAF morale-boosting efforts. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a photo showing Rustem Umierov (Secretary of NSDC) and Patrick Turner (Head of NATO Representation in Ukraine) in a meeting, discussing security guarantees, indicating continued high-level engagement between Ukraine and NATO.

Air defenses remain activated across Ukraine due to persistent RF drone and missile activity. UAF deep strikes continue against industrial and logistical targets within RF territory. RF reports widespread drone attacks across Russia. STERNENKO reports that drones attacked "Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat" in Bashkortostan, confirmed by ASTRA and Bashkortostan Governor. Народная милиция ДНР posts video claiming the destruction of a UAF D-30 howitzer. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video messages claiming RF strikes on military targets in Kyiv Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports three OMON officers in Oryol Oblast detonated a mine during demining. Colonelcassad posts video showing a large explosion and subsequent fire at night in Kyiv. НгП раZVедка posts video showing an explosion in Kyiv at night. Klichko reports a hostile UAV is flying over Kyiv, near the city center. KMVA reports no aerial targets over Kyiv. Presidential Brigade of UAF posts video showing night combat operations on the front. UAF Air Force reports a UAV moving towards the northwest in Mykolaiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports КАБ (guided aerial bomb) activity over Zaporizhzhia Oblast. KMVA reports approximately ten drones heading from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv Oblast. Serhiy Lysak (Dnipropetrovsk ODA) reports drone and КАБ strikes on Mezhevska, Pokrovska, Novopavlivska, and Malomykhailivska communities in Synelnykove district. РБК-Україна reports air defense is active against drones in Kyiv Oblast. КМВА reports air raid alert in Kyiv due to enemy UAV threat. РБК-Україна confirms renewed air raid alert in Kyiv due to drones. UAF Air Force reports a group of UAVs ("mopeds") in Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Poltava Oblast. РБК-Україна posts an updated map of Ukraine showing air alert zones. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV (moped) on the outskirts of Kyiv. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) posts video claiming air defenders shot down a drone in the oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video showing a village under what appears to be artillery or missile strikes, with multiple houses on fire and individuals moving on the ground. Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming "Akhmat" special forces successfully used a KVN drone to strike a UAF pickup truck with infantry in a wooded area on the Kharkiv direction, claiming "3 dead fighters." Оперативний ЗСУ reports a person was injured in Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast, due to a drone attack and falling debris. Kyiv subway's red line services are partially suspended due to an air raid alert. A fragment of a Russian "Gerbera" (likely a UAV) was discovered on a beach in Latvia, indicating potential operational failures or increased reconnaissance activity by RF near NATO borders. Air Force of Ukraine reports tactical aviation activity in the northeast direction, specifically launching guided aerial bombs (КАБ) towards Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБы ➡️ на Донеччину! (Guided aerial bombs towards Donetsk Oblast!). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district). Николаевский Ванёк reports three UAVs approaching Pavlohrad, and subsequent defensive actions and successful downing of UAVs in Pavlohrad. New data indicates continued RF drone activity. РБК-Україна reports continued enemy drone activity and posts a map showing air alert zones. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports an air raid alert. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has issued an all-clear.

LATEST INTELLIGENCE (182209Z - 182232Z SEP 25):

• KYIV UNDER DRONE ATTACK: Air raid sirens activated in Kyiv at 22:09Z. Николаевский Ванёк reports 12 RF UAVs ("mopeds") initially inbound for Brovary/Boryspil/Kyiv. Повітряні Сили ЗС України confirms strike UAVs heading towards the city. КМВА confirms an air raid alert due to enemy UAV threat. At 22:13Z, Николаевский Ванёк states the main group (approx. 8 UAVs) turned towards Kyiv.
• AIR DEFENSE ACTIVE: At 22:16Z, РБК-Україна reports air defense working in Kyiv. КМВА and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirm PVO activity over the capital.
• EXPLOSIONS AND IMPACTS IN KYIV: At 22:23Z, STERNENKO reports "loud" drone activity in Kyiv. РБК-Україна reports a "loud explosion." Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) amplifies videos of "shooting and explosions" in Kyiv, attributing it to an attack. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming "many are being shot down, but also reports of hits" in Kyiv.
• SOLOMIANSKYI DISTRICT HIT: At 22:32Z, Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klichko reports, "Preliminarily, a drone fell and exploded in the Solomianskyi district of Kyiv. Emergency services are heading to the scene." This confirms an impact within the city limits.
• KYIV OBLAST DRONE ACTIVITY: РБК-Україна reports drones in Kyiv Oblast with active air defense. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports a UAV heading towards Bila Tserkva.
• DIPLOMATIC CONTACTS: ТАСС reports Washington hopes to agree on next diplomatic mission talks with Moscow when convenient for both sides.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (Confidence: HIGH)

• Current Conditions: Generally clear and favorable for air operations across most of Ukraine. Rapidly changing weather for Kyiv tomorrow, potentially impacting operations. Cold front moving into Carpathians with temperatures dropping to -2°C. Snow is possible soon. Moscow is predicted to experience a heatwave next week.
• Geomagnetic Storm: The strongest geomagnetic storm in 3 months (G3) continues to impact satellite communications, GPS, and other electronic systems for both sides.
• UAV/Missile Threat (OVERNIGHT & ONGOING): RF launched three S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles, one Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile, and 75 drones (over 40 of them Shaheds) overnight against Ukraine. 48 RF UAVs were shot down/suppressed. Persistent RF UAV threats affect Sumy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Odesa, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Poltava Oblasts. Zaporizhzhia experienced at least TEN strikes, killing one person and injuring 20, causing power outages. Sumy Oblast suffered two drone impacts, causing power outages and a warehouse fire. RF dropped three FAB-250 glide bombs on Kramatorsk, injuring 19. UAF Air Force warns of guided aerial bomb launches on Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Nizhyn suffered the "most massive strike from the beginning of the war" with dozens of drones, damaging critical infrastructure. Explosions confirmed in Sumy. Yampil is reported to be burning. Large fire at Kyiv logistics center liquidated after repeated morning attacks. UAF Air Force warns of several UAV groups past Derhachi, heading towards Kharkiv. RF sources report "powerful explosions in Balakliia (Kharkiv Oblast)" with videos of large smoke plumes. New RF drone group detections for Chernihiv Oblast towards Baturyn and renewed explosions in Kropyvnytskyi. Critical infrastructure hit by RF UAVs in Cherkasy Oblast. Large fire engulfing a multi-story building in Kyiv reported. КАБы on Kherson, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts. Five strong explosions in Petrovsky district of Donetsk. RF drone strike on a gas station in Poltava district, causing a fire and one casualty. UAF Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs (КАБ) on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. РБК-Україна reports Russians struck a residential area of Konstantinovka with a guided aerial bomb (КАБ), killing 5 people, confirmed by Север.Реалии and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports a UAV on Kherson Oblast heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast. STERNENKO reports a UAV threat in Kyiv. Klichko reports a hostile UAV flying over Kyiv near the city center. KMVA reports no aerial targets over Kyiv. UAF Air Force reports a UAV moving towards the northwest in Mykolaiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports КАБ (guided aerial bomb) activity over Zaporizhzhia Oblast. KMVA reports approximately ten drones heading from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv Oblast. Serhiy Lysak (Dnipropetrovsk ODA) reports drone and КАБ strikes on Mezhevska, Pokrovska, Novopavlivska, and Malomykhailivska communities in Synelnykove district. РБК-Україна reports air defense is active against drones in Kyiv Oblast. КМВА reports air raid alert in Kyiv due to enemy UAV threat. РБК-Україна confirms renewed air raid alert in Kyiv due to drones. UAF Air Force reports a group of UAVs ("mopeds") in Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Poltava Oblast. РБК-Україна posts an updated map of Ukraine showing air alert zones. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV (moped) on the outskirts of Kyiv. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) posts video claiming air defenders shot down a drone in the oblast. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video showing a village under what appears to be artillery or missile strikes, with multiple houses on fire, likely in eastern Ukraine. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs (mopeds) from Kharkiv Oblast heading towards Poltava Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a person was injured in Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast, due to a drone attack and falling debris. Three women were injured in Vozdvyzhivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, due to an enemy attack, further increasing civilian casualties. The Kyiv City Military Administration (КМВА) has reported the all-clear for Kyiv, while the subway restores normal operations. Air Force of Ukraine reports guided aerial bombs (КАБ) targeting Kharkiv Oblast and Sumy Oblast. This confirms continued use of high-yield munitions against populated areas. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБы ➡️ на Донеччину! (Guided aerial bombs towards Donetsk Oblast!). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports a new earthquake on Kamchatka (magnitude 5.7 aftershock), indicating a natural event in RF territory, but without direct impact on current combat operations. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs (mopeds) from Kharkiv Oblast heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. ТАСС reports a 30cm wave entered the mouth of the Nalychevo River due to a Kamchatka tsunami, a natural event with no direct military impact. New reports confirm general RF drone activity with air alerts across Ukraine. A group of UAVs is reported on Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast. Another group of 20+ Shaheds is reported from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv. There are continued reports of drone activity in Ukraine with air alerts. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast air alert has been lifted.

LATEST INTELLIGENCE (182209Z - 182232Z SEP 25):

• RF drone activity is ongoing. Kyiv is currently under a drone attack, with multiple UAVs reported heading towards the city from Chernihiv Oblast. Air defense systems are active, with explosions reported. A drone fall and explosion have been reported in the Solomianskyi district of Kyiv.
• The weather conditions are currently clear, which is favorable for ongoing drone operations.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (Confidence: HIGH)

• RF Forces:
  • Ground: Multi-axis offensives continue with claims of advances in Krasnoarmeysk-Dmitrov, "grinding down" elite UAF units on Dobropillya direction, and entering Konstantinovka city limits. RF claims offensive development at the junction of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with claims of "liberating" Olhivske and Sosnovka. "Kurier" and "Fagot" UGVs deployed. Heavy reciprocal battles in Sumy Oblast. FAB strikes continue in Kalinovsky, targeting UAF logistics. Assault on Yampil has started, utilizing civilian clothing for disguise and human shields. North Korean 107-mm Type1963 MLRS observed. RF expanding bridgehead in Volchansk. RF Naval Infantry advancing in Sumy Oblast. "Vostok" assault groups discovered foreign weapons depot in South Donetsk. RF Army actively advancing in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF detailing movements and territorial control changes in Zaporizhzhia (Stepnohirsk, Orikhiv, Tokmak). RF has taken fire control of approximately 5 km of H-26 highway near Stepova Novoselivka, leading to Kupiansk. RF continues to advance on Konstantinovka direction, with "pincers closing." Putin observed "Zapad-2025" exercises. RF claims full control of Serebryansky forestry. VDV performing parachute and armored vehicle air-dropping operations during "Zapad-2025." RF efforts to camouflage Msta-S self-propelled howitzers. Videos of "Otvazhnye" on Pokrovsk direction. Tactical map claiming RF is developing an offensive at the junction of DPR, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Compilation of drone footage from Dnipropetrovsk, Pokrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia directions. RF claims "Anwar" special forces destroyed a Swedish "S-tank" while supporting an offensive towards Sumy (highly unusual, likely IO). Multiple videos claiming the liberation of Novopetrovskoye. RF claims UAF attacks on DPR border led to increased RF strikes on enemy rear. RF claims destruction of a Paladin SAU, and successful destruction of UAF attempts to cross Dnieper. Map-based analysis of encirclement of Scherbynivka and battles in Konstantinovka. Video of a captured Russian soldier, Mikhail Stepanov, describing harsh combat conditions, coercive tactics, and low morale. Forced evacuation from 18 settlements in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. "Akhmat" SpN Regiment FPV drone reconnaissance on Sumy direction. Duma committee approved veteran status for volunteers in assault units. RF claims "Sparta" unit destroyed a UAF UAV control post. RF and UAF-affiliated sources amplify Deep State's report that RF forces are entering and consolidating in residential areas of Kupiansk. The captured RF soldier claims his unit used a gas pipe to infiltrate Kupiansk. RF military expert claims UAF created powerful underground fortifications in residential Konstantinovka. RF claims an offensive behind Chasiv Yar, with airborne forces destroying enemy defenses. Special incendiary detachment of 16th Guards NBC Protection Brigade, "Vostok" Group, using thermobaric munitions on Vremevskoye direction. MoD Russia posts video features Russian soldiers discussing UAV attacks, small group infiltrations by AFU, and the establishment of a buffer zone. MoD Russia claim of destroying a 3-person Ukrainian DRG attempting to infiltrate Kursk Oblast near Tetkino. Colonelcassad posts drone footage claiming to show a destroyed UAF M1A1 Abrams tank on the Sumy front (unverified). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claims "Anwar" special forces hit a rare Swedish Strv 103 tank in the Sumy border region (unverified). MoD Russia posts video showcasing RF MLRS firing rounds. Colonelcassad claims RF forces successfully crossed the Volchya River and are advancing in eastern Ivanovka. Два майора posts drone footage of an artillery strike near a military vehicle. MoD Russia posts video claiming a T-80BVM tank crew destroyed an enemy stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a message: "Family, friends, brothers and sisters, we urgently need drones🚀." Старше Эдды claims RF forces have taken control of the outskirts of Kupiansk. Операция Z amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" video claiming RF VDV are destroying UAF positions and advancing on the Sumy front. Colonelcassad posts map claiming assault groups occupied new positions south of Novoivanivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of captured Russian soldiers in Kupiansk detailing orders to kill Ukrainian men and infiltration via a gas pipe. Colonelcassad posts video of a damaged UAF Roshel Senator armored vehicle. ТАСС reports Russian sergeant Dinir Shavaleev broke into an enemy dugout alone and eliminated two Ukrainian soldiers. Два майора posts video regarding drone repair and creation for marine infantry on Sumy direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video of RF soldiers evacuating a heavy, injured soldier. MoD Russia posts video of T-72B3M tanks neutralizing UAF positions in the LPR. Colonelcassad posts new map updates detailing RF ground advances over the past 24 hours, particularly around Kupiansk. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Kotsnews post drone footage of artillery strikes by "Vostok" Group on UAF fortified positions near Gavrilovka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк claims 18 officers of the operational staff of the RF 35th Combined Arms Army were killed in a sabotage operation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (unverified by UAF, but casualty list adds credibility). «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» posts thermal and daylight drone footage from the Sumy direction showing interception of an enemy drone and strike on an "enemy antenna." Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports having collected over 11,000₽ for drones. MoD Russia posts a photo message summarizing the progress of the special military operation as of 18 September 2025. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a video showing a Russian T-72 variant tank maneuvering and firing. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video claiming RF forces eliminated a UAF platoon in Konstantinovka. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video of Solovyov proposing replacing Russian border guards with North Koreans. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of Ukrainian border guards striking three enemy vehicles and manpower in the Southern direction. Janus Putkonen posts an image with the caption "Army Corps Zapad-2025 ended and training troops are moving to real operations against Kyiv forces." Alex Parker Returns posts video about high financial incentives for contract service in Moscow (6M rubles annually, 3.1M lump sum, 260k salary, 10M debt forgiveness). MoD Russia posts video showing signal units of the Tsentr Group of Forces deploying a secured radio network between forward units and a command post in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Воин DV posts video detailing the situation on the Southern Donetsk direction, specifically mentioning fighting in Novoivanovka, and shows drone footage of artillery strikes. Рыбарь posts a tactical map overlay for "fights in the agglomeration." Операция Z amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" claiming RF Army is breaking through to Zaporizhzhia via Kamyanske and Plavni, citing Ukrainian speaker Voloshyn. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a tactical map overlay for the Kherson direction. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video quoting Putin on over 700,000 Russian military personnel on the line of contact. Воин DV posts photos of Russian tank brigade soldiers from Buryatia being awarded. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video with captured RF soldiers discussing murder charges. Colonelcassad reports a cluster Iskander strike on a UAF company tactical group near Druzhkivka. "Два майора" posts a message from Putin to State Duma leaders, emphasizing the government's reliance on their support, indicating an ongoing effort to maintain political cohesion for the war. "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" posts a photo message claiming a person accused of raping a minor stepdaughter was released to fight in the war, indicating continued controversial recruitment practices. "Николаевский Ванёк" posts an exclusive video of a captured Cuban national from the 81st Airmobile Brigade, providing HUMINT on RF recruitment of foreign nationals and their combat experience. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming strikes on UAF positions on the Donetsk direction. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition amplifies Putin's statement that the "combined grouping of Russian forces in the SMO zone is over 700,000 servicemen," claiming "our fighters have no equals in the world." Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming "Akhmat" special forces successfully used a KVN drone to strike a UAF pickup truck with infantry in a wooded area on the Kharkiv direction, claiming "3 dead fighters." Игорь Артамонов posts a photo message highlighting a father of three, a Cossack and patriot, serving as a volunteer on the front since 2022, indicating continued RF volunteer recruitment and morale boosting. Воин DV posts video of drone operators from the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade conducting effective strikes against enemy manpower in the Polozhskoye direction, demonstrating continued offensive operations. Два майора posts a video compilation, including what appears to be a Russian tank being destroyed by UAF forces, suggesting ongoing tactical losses for RF. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo of a tactical map claiming a critical situation in Kupiansk, implying potential RF advances or UAF tactical setbacks in the area. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" states that their unit is experiencing a "difficult period," indicating possible operational strain. Russian forces are distributing leaflets in Velyka Pysarivka, Sumy Oblast, calling for "evacuation." "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a video showing Russian military personnel loading crates with Cyrillic text onto a vehicle, indicating routine logistical operations. Colonelcassad highlights "Aid's" comments on shotguns against FPV drones, suggesting tactical adaptations. Военкор Котенок posts a video showing a mix of medical emergency response and military training/operations footage, with a caption indicating a deficit of medics at the front. Операция Z amplifies a video showing Russian President Vladimir Putin discussing the establishment of a federal holiday for veterans of special military operations. Colonelcassad posts video claiming successful FPV drone and artillery strikes by RF's 3rd Army Corps on a UAF 155mm M109A5 self-propelled howitzer near Konstantinovka, supporting claims of continued high-intensity combat and RF precision capabilities. Воин DV posts a video showing military vehicles and apparent combat in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by RF "CENTER" and "VOSTOK" groups, suggesting ongoing RF ground operations and pressure in the area. Два майора posts a photo message showing a body exchange, confirming the ongoing process of exchanging fallen soldiers between both sides. Alex Parker Returns posts a grim video showing decomposing bodies in military fatigues and a scorched forest, indicating recent heavy combat and significant casualties, likely RF losses given the channel's general bias. Colonelcassad posts video claiming an UAF DRG of 4 militants armed with a "Baba-Yaga" heavy hexacopter was destroyed on the right bank of the Dnieper in Kherson Oblast while attempting to cross to the left bank. Alex Parker Returns shares information from Russian sources alleging that Rostec structures are servicing UAF helicopters (Mi-8MT/MTB) via AAL Group Ltd., registered in the UAE. Colonelcassad posts video on Wagner Group training Belarusian forces for 2 years, highlighting their combat experience in Syria and Africa. Alex Parker Returns posts video depicting a green pickup truck with supplies driving through a heavily damaged village, possibly from a forward logistics operation. New intelligence shows that the Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration, Dmitry Kozak, has been dismissed. Colonelcassad has posted videos of an exhibition "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" in Moscow's Victory Museum, showcasing Russian military heroism and destroyed enemy equipment. This includes an interactive map of military operations. OSINT-analyst Brady Africk reports RF has recently built a new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast, 35 km from the Ukrainian border. "Военкоры Русской Весны" (amplified by Операция Z) claims a former UAF officer who defected in 2014 is commanding the Russian offensive on Kupiansk.
  • Air/Naval: High concentration of strategic bombers. "West-2025" and "Rubezh 2025" exercises ongoing, involving significant naval deployments and strategic aviation. OAK handed over another batch of new Su-34 fighter-bombers. RF launched three S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles and 75 drones (over 40 of them Shaheds) overnight. UAF Air Force warns of guided aerial bomb launches on Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Tu-22M3 bombers patrolled over Barents Sea for "Zapad-2025." MoD Russia posts video of "Zapad 2025" Baltic Fleet repelling uncrewed surface vehicle attack. Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeployed. Baltic Fleet naval aviation conducted combat use of UMPK and Kh-31A anti-ship missiles. MoD Russia posts video of Iskander-M missile system electronic launches in Kaliningrad. MoD Russia and Basurin confirm successful missile launch from a submarine in Barents-Sea. Convoy of at least one military truck with two attack helicopters providing escort observed in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Bangladesh, India, Iran, Burkina Faso, Congo, and Mali participated in "Zapad-2025." Russia tested naval hypersonic weapons. "Massive use of unmanned aircraft and ground robots" as a feature of "Zapad-2025." Frigate "Admiral Golovko" conducted a Zircon hypersonic missile strike. MoD Russia posts video of "Zapad-2025" exercises showing landing craft disembarking BMPs and IL-76 transport aircraft conducting large-scale airdrops. Practical phase of "Zapad-2025" exercises concluded in Leningrad Oblast. RF strikes on railway infrastructure. UAF Air Force reports enemy tactical aviation activity in Sea of Azov, and КАБы on Kherson, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts. First regular flight from Moscow to Krasnodar since 2022. CSTO command-staff exercises "Rubezh-2025" began in Kyrgyzstan. Reports RF troops leaving Belarusian training grounds. Video showcasing a Russian naval parade. US Commerce Department denied "Belavia" permission to operate Boeing flights to Russia. UAF Air Force reports new launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aviation on the border of Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. UAF Air Force warns of a high-speed target heading towards Kharkiv. MoD Russia posts video of Il-38 anti-submarine aircraft conducting practical bombing of ground targets. UAF Air Force reports attack UAVs in Synelnykove, Novgorod-Siversky districts, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk Oblasts, and heading towards Kryvyi Rih district. An RF drone strike on a gas station in Poltava district. Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs (КАБ) on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photos of RF Su-25s flying low. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Zaliznychne, Rizdvyanka, Kamyanske, Hryhorivka, Veselyanka of Zaporizhzhia region, Antonivka, Inhulets of Kherson region, citing UAF General Staff. MoD Russia posts video compilation "Rubikon in action." Полиция Хабаровского края posts video of RF Minister of Internal Affairs Kolokoltsev visiting a police armaments exhibition in China. ТАСС reports Lavrov is planning to meet with UN Secretary-General Guterres. MoD Russia posts video showing Army Aviation Ka-52m helicopter hitting AFU manpower and armored vehicles in the Sever Group of Forces responsibility. STERNENKO reports a UAV threat in Kyiv. Klichko reports a hostile UAV is flying over Kyiv, near the city center. KMVA reports no aerial targets over Kyiv. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video showing a village under what appears to be artillery or missile strikes, with multiple houses on fire, likely from an RF aerial or artillery attack. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs (mopeds) moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast, indicating continued RF aerial threats. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Russia has constructed a new facility resembling a "Shahed" drone launch site. ТАСС reports RF has challenged the ICAO decision on MH17 at the ICJ. Air Force of Ukraine reports tactical aviation activity in the northeast direction, specifically launching guided aerial bombs (КАБ) towards Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. This indicates immediate and active RF aerial operations in these border regions. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБы ➡️ на Донеччину! (Guided aerial bombs towards Donetsk Oblast!). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district). New intelligence reports a group of UAVs on Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast, and 20+ Shaheds from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv. ТАСС reports the US State Department approved a possible sale of Javelin missiles to Poland for $780 million.
  • UAV/EW: Persistent FPV drone operations, reconnaissance UAV activity. Claims of destroying 80 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. "Molniya-2" UAVs adapted with fiber optics. Mass Shahed launches from three locations. Claims destruction of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone via FPV drone. Russia has managed to create a "drone production empire". RF air defense claims 87 RF UAVs were shot down overnight. UAF Air Force warns of multiple groups of RF UAVs approaching Kharkiv via Vilcha, Vovchansk, and Slatyne. Video claiming 218th Guards Tank Regiment air defense battery clearing skies of enemy drones. "Zephyr-M" UAV. UAF Air Force reports several UAV groups past Derhachi, heading towards Kharkiv. Russian drone invaded Lithuania was launched from Belarus. UAF Air Force reports a group of UAVs (mopeds) heading towards Nizhyn, Chernihiv Oblast. "Drone safety" in Saratov, Tambov, Voronezh, Rostov, and Volgograd Oblasts. A fire at Morozovsk airfield in Rostov Oblast. UAF Air Force reports new groups of RF attack UAVs (mopeds) detected over Kherson Oblast, heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast. MoD Russia posts new video showcasing diverse drone activity. UAF Air Force reports UAVs in Poltava suburbs and multiple groups of UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast heading towards Kamianske. UAF Air Force reports new groups of RF attack UAVs (mopeds) moving through Okhtyrka district, Sumy Oblast, towards Poltava Oblast. New drone danger warning for Bryansk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a new RF UAV (moped) heading towards Myrhorod in Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a UAV in Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Baturyn. "Ostatok po mopedam" update. Video of the "Torn-MDM" complex being used during "Zapad-2025" exercises. RF anti-icing technology for UAVs for extreme cold. Plans for anti-drone protected security zones in Russian border areas. UAF General Staff states RF has used over 2000 drones. RF FPV drone strike on a minibus in Vasylivsky district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF air defense destroyed 8 enemy UAVs overnight. Enemy reconnaissance UAV in Zaporizhzhia. Enemy attack UAV in Kramatorsk. Video of a UAF soldier picking up an RF fiber-optic FPV drone "KVN", which then detonates. UAF Air Force, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-УкраїНА all report 136 RF UAVs shot down/suppressed out of 172 launched, including over 100 Shaheds. Video with an Orlan-30 drone operator discussing its EW resistance. Bakonov states an analog of Starlink will soon appear in Russia. Claims Russian "Geraniums" (Shaheds) hit two substations overnight. Video of "Akhmat" SpN Regiment FPV drone reconnaissance on Sumy direction. Roscosmos CEO reported Russia will soon have its own satellite communication terminal. UAF Air Force warns of a high-speed target heading towards Kharkiv. Kotsnews claims "Rubikon" fighters shot down 1000 enemy drones. UAF Air Force reports attack UAVs in Synelnykove, Novgorod-Siversky districts, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk Oblasts, and heading towards Kryvyi Rih district. Colonelcassad reports the development of a polyamide net capable of neutralizing 50-100% of the kinetic energy of loitering munitions. Kotsnews reports AI is being implemented in the process of updating the Ruviki encyclopedia at Kazan Digital Week 2025. UAF Air Force reports a UAV moving towards the northwest in Mykolaiv Oblast. KMVA reports approximately ten drones heading from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv Oblast. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України" reports a group of UAVs (mopeds) in Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Poltava Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV (moped) on the outskirts of Kyiv. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) posts video claiming air defenders shot down a drone in the oblast. Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming "Akhmat" special forces successfully used a KVN drone to strike a UAF pickup truck with infantry in a wooded area on the Kharkiv direction, claiming "3 dead fighters." Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs (mopeds) moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast, indicating persistent drone threats. Два майора posts a video showcasing a possible Russian drone destroying a Ukrainian tank, implying RF drone effectiveness. "Операция Z" amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" video claiming "Otvazhnye" forces are using "BABA-YAGA" drones to destroy NATO equipment, infantry, and enemy positions near Pokrovsk. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report a fragment of a Russian "Gerbera" UAV found on a Latvian beach. Prime Minister Shmyhal states Ukraine will use 1000 interceptor drones per day in the near future. This indicates an urgent and substantial scale-up of UAF counter-UAV capabilities. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts multiple photo messages showcasing a tactical screen with telemetry data. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement that Ukraine will use 1000 interceptor drones per day in the near future, indicating a strategic shift towards large-scale counter-UAV operations. Два майора posts a video showing a collection effort for "Front-line armor," which appears to be a fundraising effort for RF forces, indicating continued reliance on public support for equipment. Николаевский Ванёк reports three UAVs approaching Pavlohrad, and subsequent downing of drones. New data from Николаевский Ванёк reports overall "moped" activity. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine report over 20 Shaheds are heading from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv. The Air Force of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast. РБК-Україна posts a video message reporting RF has recently built a new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast, 35 km from the Ukrainian border, attributed to OSINT-analyst Brady Africk. РБК-Україна also posts a tactical analysis of a satellite image of the Bryansk Oblast launch site. This new site likely implies an increased and more direct drone threat to northern Ukraine, particularly Kyiv and Sumy Oblasts. The tactical analysis refers to an aerial object over a gridded surface.
  • Air Defense: Photos of a Pantsir-S1/S2 air defense system. RF air defense destroyed 10 enemy UAVs over Bryansk Oblast overnight. MoD Russia posts video of MiG-31bm fighter jets protecting long-range aircraft. PPO is working on drones in Kyiv Oblast and in Kyiv. Temporary flight restrictions at Volgograd, Kaluga, and Saratov airports. RF air defense intercepted and destroyed UAVs in five districts of Rostov Oblast. RF air defense destroyed 8 enemy UAVs overnight. UAF Air Force, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-УкраїНА all report 136 RF UAVs shot down/suppressed out of 172 launched. UAF Air Force reports the threat for Kharkiv has been lifted. RF MoD claims 6 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Belgorod Oblast. 7 RF UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in the evening. ТАСС reports PVO forces shot down six Ukrainian UAVs over Kursk, Belgorod, and Rostov Oblasts. The air raid alarm in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted. ASTRA reports temporary flight restrictions at Samara airport. KMVA reports no aerial targets over Kyiv. РБК-Україна reports air defense is working against drones in Kyiv Oblast. КМВА reports air raid alert in Kyiv due to enemy UAV threat. РБК-Україна confirms renewed air raid alert in Kyiv due to drones. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) posts video claiming air defenders shot down a drone in the oblast. КМВА (Kyiv City Military Administration) reports the all-clear for Kyiv. Air Force of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeast. Николаевский Ванёк reports Pavlohrad began defending against the drone attack, with a subsequent successful downing of drones. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports an air raid alert, followed by an all-clear.

LATEST INTELLIGENCE (182209Z - 182232Z SEP 25):

• KYIV AIR DEFENSE ACTIVE: UAF Air Defense is actively engaging RF UAVs over Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast. Reports indicate successful interceptions.

• DRONE STRIKE IN KYIV: An RF drone impact and explosion has occurred in the Solomianskyi district, Kyiv. Damage and casualties are not yet reported.

• RF UAV NUMBERS: Николаевский Ванёк reports initial waves of 12, then 8, then 6 UAVs converging on Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast. Remaining UAVs are also reported by Николаевский Ванёк.

• Air Force of Ukraine and KMVA are providing real-time updates and coordinating defensive actions.

• UAF Forces:

  • Defensive: Actively defending across all major axes, repelling numerous RF assaults (11 in Kursk/Sumy directions, 2 in Kherson). President Zelenskyy met with soldiers of the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade, highlighting their participation in the defense of Myrnohrad. Klichko reports a hostile UAV is flying over Kyiv, near the city center. Presidential Brigade of UAF posts video showing night combat operations on the front, emphasizing vigilance. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts video of the UAF 1st Assault Battalion holding its front line in Zaporizhzhia and destroying enemy forces with FPV drones, confirming strong defensive posture. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts photos of President Zelenskyy meeting with the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade at their command post, acknowledging their participation in the defense of Mirnohrad and the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation. Олександр Вілкул provides a briefing outlining the continuation of systemic aid to the military, including specialized vehicles, trucks, and 10 DJI Matrice 4T quadcopters for the 77th Airmobile Brigade, reinforcing defensive posture. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a video showing defensive actions with significant engagements on Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Kupiansk directions. Kyiv subway's red line services partially suspended due to an air raid alert, indicating a defensive control measure. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's operational update confirms UAF repelled the vast majority of RF assaults on all key axes, demonstrating strong defensive posture and effectiveness. Оперативний ЗСУ posts photo messages regarding Russia's challenge to the ICAO decision on MH17, indicating UAF's continued monitoring of RF's international legal maneuvers.
  • Localized Counter-Offensives: Confirmed liberation of Pankivka, Donetsk Oblast, and Zarichne. UAF reports eliminating a Russian breakthrough near Pokrovsk with ongoing cleanup operations. The "STRIKS" unit's successful strikes on the Southern Slobozhansky direction and border guard strikes on RF vehicles demonstrate tactical offensive readiness. President Zelenskyy's visit to Donetsk Oblast, where he discussed liberated territories and met with soldiers of the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation, confirms active UAF offensive operations, including 160 sq km liberated and 7 settlements freed. The 1st Assault Regiment successfully repelled an RF "pincer" maneuver near Dobropillya. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts video of the "STRIKS" unit (4th Border Guard Detachment) successfully destroying two enemy positions, a shelter, a BMP, and two vehicles (one with ammunition) on the Southern Slobozhansky direction using FPV drones, indicating continued effective localized offensive action. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts photos of President Zelenskyy meeting with the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade at their command post, acknowledging their participation in the defense of Mirnohrad and the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation, and discussing a "Dobropillya counter-offensive operation." Оперативний ЗСУ posts video depicting drone footage of Ukrainian military positions, specifically trenches, being targeted and struck by munitions, with a logo and unit emblem, and the caption "Окупантам не сховатися" (Occupiers cannot hide), implying successful counter-offensive actions or defensive strikes against enemy positions. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a video compilation showing intense combat engagements from a drone's perspective on the Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Kupiansk directions, documenting numerous RF artillery strikes and personnel losses. This directly contradicts RF claims of widespread UAF setbacks and highlights the fierce, reciprocal nature of the fighting. Two Ukrainian reconnaissance companies, including the "VARTOVI" unmanned systems battalion of Mykolaiv marines, are actively engaging Russian military assets, targeting vehicle convoys, artillery, and infantry positions. Drone operators from the 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" successfully destroyed eight Russian assault troops on the Pokrovsk direction.
  • High Readiness in Key Sectors: Sustained commitment of forces in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction and efforts to hold Kupiansk demonstrate readiness. Visual confirmation of the 77th Airmobile Brigade's presence.
  • Tactical Drone Integration: Extensive use of FPV and thermal-imaging drones for night operations and precision strikes (Azov Brigade, "Shadow" unit), including new 10-inch FPV drones from volunteer efforts. New cooperation agreement with Poland on drones, and joint operational group on UAVs. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of the 1st Assault Battalion using FPV drones against RF checkpoints and transport. President Zelenskyy's discussions with commanders of the 82nd Air Assault Brigade explicitly included drone systems. "Підрозділ Shadow" posts video of successful drone strikes on RF shelters, confirming continued effective tactical drone use. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts video of the UAF 1st Assault Battalion destroying enemy forces with FPV drones in Zaporizhzhia, highlighting effective drone integration for long-range engagements. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts video of the "STRIKS" unit's FPV drone successes on the Southern Slobozhansky direction, further confirming advanced tactical drone integration. Олександр Вілкул posts a briefing detailing the transfer of 10 DJI Matrice 4T quadcopters to the 77th Airmobile Brigade. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a photo message featuring a drone with the caption "Дальність? Вітер? Борт заармовано?" (Range? Wind? Board armed?), indicating UAF's technical focus on drone operations. The "VARTOVI" unmanned systems battalion and 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" are actively demonstrating effective drone operations. Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement about Ukraine using 1000 interceptor drones daily indicates an immediate and significant scaling of UAF counter-UAV capabilities. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts multiple photo messages showcasing a tactical screen with telemetry data. New intelligence from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS indicates Ukraine is producing 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month and aims for 7 missiles daily by year-end, signaling an increase in domestic missile production.
  • Personnel Mobilization: DPSU is transferring data on men attempting to illegally cross the border to TCCs. The new Law on the Military Ombudsman indicates a focus on personnel welfare. Training activities by the Zaporizhzhia Center for National Resistance. РБК-Україна posts a photo message claiming a Ministry of Defense official was exposed in an evasion scheme, indicating ongoing efforts to combat corruption related to mobilization. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo message reporting the exposure of heads of military medical commissions in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts who helped military personnel transfer to rear units for bribes, indicating continued issues with personnel integrity within the mobilization system.
  • Morale: Exhibitions for Tank Troops Day and commemoration of rescuers. Positive messaging about the 77th Airmobile Brigade. Discussions with families of POW/MIA personnel. Opening of a memorial alley in Zaporizhzhia. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts reinforcing soldier camaraderie. President Zelenskyy has visited a command post of the Air Assault Forces (DSHV) in Donetsk Oblast, discussing active defense, training, manning, and drone systems. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (Kharkiv ODA Head) posts photo messages about stable mobile communication and internet being guaranteed even under enemy shelling. КМВА (Kyiv City Military Administration) calls on businesses to join in building an accessible environment, indicating civilian recovery and support efforts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of captured Russian soldiers, including one who claims to have been captured just two weeks after signing a contract. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts photo messages of President Zelenskyy awarding soldiers participating in the Dobropillya counter-offensive. "Николаевский Ванёк" posts an exclusive video of a captured Cuban mercenary, providing HUMINT on RF recruitment of foreign nationals and their combat experience. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts photos of President Zelenskyy meeting with the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade at their command post, acknowledging their participation in the defense of Mirnohrad and the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo message announcing the opening of a mental health center for military personnel, veterans, and their families in Ternopil, highlighting UAF efforts to support the well-being of its forces and their families. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" is running a fundraiser/raffle for a "cool shell casing," indicative of continued grassroots support and morale-boosting efforts. "Оперативний ЗСУ" is actively soliciting donations for troops on the Pokrovsk direction, demonstrating continued public engagement in supporting the military. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video showing the Motherland Monument in Kyiv illuminated with patriotic laser projections ("UNITY", "VOLIA"), directly reinforcing UAF morale and national identity. STERNENKO posts a message encouraging donations, connecting financial contributions to reducing Russian presence. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a message expressing disappointment with low participation in a fundraising marathon, indicating morale and resource challenges for some RF-aligned entities.
  • Internal Security: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video with captured RF soldiers discussing murder charges. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the conviction of a "Rashist" (Russian) who oversaw the "Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation" during the occupation of Kherson, signaling continued UAF efforts to prosecute collaborators and war criminals. Colonelcassad posts a photo message stating that Tetyana Chornovol has been appointed to the Verkhovna Rada "instead of the killed Parubiy," and claims she "has a certificate of schizophrenia." This is RF IO intended to discredit Ukrainian political figures. РБК-Україна reports that claims of a "data leak" from e-Notariat (Ukrainian electronic notary system) are false and that Ukrainian data is secure, indicating continued efforts to counter disinformation regarding internal security. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts multiple photo messages related to RF casualties.
  • External Support: NATO confirms the first US weapons delivery under PURL (Presidential Ukraine Reconnaissance and Logistics) has arrived in Ukraine, with more expected soon. РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS corroborate this. Олександр Вілкул's briefing details the transfer of 6.423 million UAH in aid to the 77th Airmobile Brigade, including private funds, from Кривий Ріг. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 posts a photo message highlighting that the USA and Great Britain signed a technology cooperation agreement. Операция Z amplifies a "Военкоры Русской Весны" report claiming Poland is preparing for war with Russia by checking bomb shelters nationwide, which RF IO uses to portray NATO aggression. ТАСС reports the EU is discussing using frozen RF assets for a loan to Kyiv, bypassing Hungary, indicating continued EU support initiatives. РБК-Україна posts a photo message stating Zelenskyy invited Qatar to a summit in New York regarding the return of Ukrainian children, indicating ongoing international diplomatic efforts to address humanitarian issues. Reuters reports the EU is preparing a plan to bypass Hungary's veto to provide Russian frozen funds to Ukraine, indicating continued and evolving diplomatic support. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports a phone conversation between US President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, which could indirectly impact international dynamics relevant to Ukraine. Рыбарь posts an image depicting the Polish Navy's projected strength, providing intelligence on regional force disposition. Bloomberg reports the EU plans to accelerate its rejection of Russian LNG due to pressure from Trump. This signals continued strong international support for decoupling from Russian energy. РБК-Україна reports Poland is conducting large-scale checks of bomb shelters. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a photo showing Rustem Umierov (Secretary of NSDC) and Patrick Turner (Head of NATO Representation in Ukraine) discussing security guarantees, emphasizing continued high-level engagement between Ukraine and NATO. ТАСС posts a photo message with a caption criticizing "begging for protection from the aggressor," likely referring to Western aid to Ukraine, indicating RF IO attempts to discredit international support. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports that part of the weapons purchased by the EU from the USA for Kyiv has already arrived in Ukraine, confirming continued material support. New intelligence reports TASS stating that Turkey is evaluating cooperation with BRICS and ASEAN. ТАСС also reports that the US State Department has approved the possible sale of Javelin missiles to Poland for $780 million.

LATEST INTELLIGENCE (182209Z - 182232Z SEP 25):

• KYIV AIR DEFENSE: UAF Air Defense is actively engaged in repelling the drone attack on Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast. This indicates a high state of readiness and continued defensive operations.
• UAF MORALE: Public sentiment is likely heightened due to the ongoing attack on the capital, reinforcing the narrative of RF aggression and the need for UAF defense.
• DIPLOMATIC: US-Russia diplomatic dialogue regarding diplomatic missions is being discussed (TASS), indicating low-level, routine diplomatic engagement despite ongoing hostilities.

1.4. Information Environment (Cognitive domain)

• Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:
  • RF Narratives: RF is heavily amplifying claims of "chaos and disorganization" and a "failed defense" in Kupiansk, leveraging quotes from Ukrainian military bloggers to lend false credibility. The claim of breakthroughs to Zaporizhzhia via Kamyanske and Plavni, citing a UAF speaker, is an attempt to amplify perceived UAF weakness. "РБК-Україна" reports on an alleged "conflict between GUR and the President's Office," which RF IO will immediately amplify to sow discord and undermine confidence in Ukrainian leadership and C2. Extensive reporting on FSB thwarting "terrorist attacks" in St. Petersburg, detaining "Ukrainian intelligence agents," and capturing "extremists," alongside the sentencing of a school guard for a Bucha repost, a resident for VKontakte audio recordings, and a new fine for wishing death to Russian soldiers, serves to project an image of a secure and capable state, while demonizing Ukraine and suppressing dissent. The narrative of "Colombian mercenaries organizing criminal business" in Ukraine also serves to discredit foreign fighters and link the conflict to criminality. Reports of detentions in Britain for spying for Russia also fit this narrative. The harsh 14-year sentence for a Zaporizhzhia resident supporting UAF reinforces the narrative of stringent control and suppression of dissent in occupied territories. The release of Baza producer Lukyanova to house arrest is a nuanced internal security narrative. The "drunk serviceman" in St. Petersburg hospital is also a negative internal security incident. Colonelcassad amplifies explanation from "Saperavi" restaurant on "Russophobic video," indicating RF's continued active monitoring and response to internal dissent and narratives. TASS reports Baza editor-in-chief Trifonov admitted guilt, confirming continued internal security operations targeting media perceived as hostile. Putin's statements on migration policy reinforce a narrative of strong internal security and control. Putin's support for selling "beautiful" car numbers on Gosuslugi aims to project a sense of order and civil society functionality (Новости Москвы). TASS reports a 14.5-year sentence for a former bodyguard, indicating continued internal law enforcement and punishment. TASS reports AI-generated photos can lead to passport denial, indicating control over personal data and identity. TASS reports three Russian children were added to "Myrotvorets," a clear narrative to demonize Ukraine and portray Russians as victims. Claims of destroying Swedish "S-tanks" and "NATO supersystems" (e.g., PzH 2000), and "liberating Novonikolaevka," "Malaya Tokmachka," and Otradnoye, aim to exaggerate RF battlefield achievements and discredit Western military aid. New claims of precision strikes by Tornado-S MLRS crews in Konstantinovka, allegedly eliminating a UAF platoon. The video on "how Storm troopers train" also aims to project RF military capability and resilience. The "IPSO with cats" aims to humanize RF soldiers. The amplification of a 1000:24 UAF to RF body exchange ratio (highly likely exaggerated) reinforces the narrative of high UAF casualties. Promotion of financial incentives for contract soldiers also aims to project military strength and attractiveness. RF is also promoting its efforts to improve C2 networks in offensive operations. Putin's statements on high combat aviation development reinforce this. Putin's claim of 700,000 personnel on the line of contact is a significant IO effort to project scale (Kotsnews, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники). The awarding of soldiers from a tank brigade in Buryatia (Воин DV) serves to boost military morale and project success. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's video featuring Putin alongside individuals with "Z" symbols, implying that pardoned criminals are being presented as a "replacement" (замена) for those in power or for military service, aims to normalize controversial recruitment practices, although БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС's framing is highly critical. Colonelcassad reports a cluster Iskander strike on a UAF company tactical group, portraying RF precision strike capability. TASS reports Russia gaining control of "Музыка" publishing house with a 150-year archive, which can be spun as a victory of cultural influence and control. "Fighterbomber" posts a photo with the caption "It was getting dark," a subtle IO attempt to project RF presence and operational continuity. "Рыбарь" posts "Radicals at the doorstep" - a clear IO attempt to demonize Ukrainian nationalist groups and portray them as an existential threat, often used to justify RF actions. Reports on heating season starting, domestic incidents (crocodiles in "Moskvarium", MinFin's wine commentary, family mortgage discussions, protein quality reports, housing construction, sports nutrition labeling), and political appointments/resignations (Kozak, Gerasimov's extension - Colonelcassad) aim to project an image of stability and normalcy within Russia, despite the ongoing conflict. Discounting regional debts also contributes to this narrative. Putin's meeting with faction leaders (TASS) is framed as normal governance. RF assisting citizens in Gaza is a foreign policy normalcy report. Gold export restrictions suggest economic control, framed as stability. The wrestling tournament in Chechnya also projects regional pride and normalcy. The Veterans Association promotes patriotism and community. High financial incentives for contract soldiers aim to attract and retain personnel. Putin's integration of SMO veterans into political parties aims to further nationalize the war effort. Putin's comments on Stalingrad and macro-economic stability are designed for public reassurance. Putin's claims of lowest unemployment highlight economic normalcy. Putin's discussions on inflation (ТАСС) are part of this narrative of economic control and stability. TASS reporting on a world speed record on a Ferrari on an aircraft carrier also promotes a sense of technological prowess and normalcy. Басурин о главном posts commercial for "reliable cars," subtly implying a functional civilian economy supporting the war effort. TASS reports on regulating overbooking in hotels, an internal domestic issue used to project normal governance. TASS reports on school curriculum overload, another domestic issue used to project normal governance. "Mash на Донбассе" posts videos about a cat with a broken jaw, a blatant attempt to distract from the conflict and promote a sense of mundane normalcy. New, highly inflammatory narratives claiming UAF attacked an ambulance in Oleshky and an FPV drone operator deliberately killed a civilian hostage on the Krasnolimansky direction. These are likely false flag operations or misattributed incidents designed to demonize UAF. RF is amplifying a UAF commander's statement predicting winter blackouts due to shelling, to further demoralize and signal continued attacks. Propaganda about "Europe pays, USA earns" directly targets the transatlantic alliance, aiming to sow discord and undermine support for Ukraine. Reports of US domestic issues and French protests against a defense factory (TASS report on Paris protests) are used to highlight Western internal divisions and problems. The satirical BBC headline about Macron is a direct attack. Lavrov's statements blaming the EU for prolonging the conflict reinforce this. Trump's statements that "Putin let me down" regarding Ukraine (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, Операция Z) and Starmer's discussions on "how to make Putin agree to peace" (РБК-УкраїНА, ASTRA) are being carefully monitored and likely spun by RF IO to highlight perceived Western confusion or disagreements. ТАСС also reports Trump's hope for "good news" regarding Ukraine settlement, further adding to the narrative of Western figures pushing for a resolution. TASS amplifies Trump's claims that falling oil prices could end the conflict, an IO narrative to shift blame and pressure Western economic policy. Alex Parker Returns amplifies Trump's "Putin let me down" statement, but frames it as crying, potentially for humorous or dismissive effect. TASS reports protests in Paris against austerity, explicitly linking them to "Katyusha" music, portraying Western internal disunity and anti-government sentiment. РБК-Україна reports Trump wants to return troops to Afghanistan, possibly as an IO attempt to highlight perceived US strategic missteps or a shift in focus away from Ukraine. TASS amplifies Trump's statement that the "threat of World War 3 has passed," aiming to portray RF as having de-escalated and to implicitly blame the West for initial tensions. "Операция Z" amplifies Trump's confused statement about "Azerbaijan and Albania," intending to portray Western leadership as inept and disorganized. Solovyov's proposal to replace Russian border guards with North Koreans, while presented as a discussion, could be a subtle IO effort to float the idea of greater North Korean involvement in the conflict or security arrangements. The claim that "Zapad-2025 ended and training troops are moving to real operations against Kyiv forces" (Janus Putkonen) is a direct IO threat, aiming to create fear and divert UAF resources. The proposal from RF Ministry of Defense "politruks" to create a state concept for "constructing the image of Russia's enemy" indicates a more formalized and long-term approach to information warfare, aiming to unify internal support and justify aggression. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА's memorial graphic, while seemingly commemorating, is an RF IO attempt to highlight UAF losses, particularly from special forces. The "Fate of a Man" video aims to humanize the conflict from an RF perspective. The video about a restaurant manager making anti-Russian statements aims to highlight and suppress internal dissent or perceived threats to the RF narrative. The "kolkhoz woman" video also aims to identify and demonize internal dissent. Zakharova's briefing on Lavrov's UNGA plans highlights RF's diplomatic efforts on the international stage. Рыбарь's "Trap for Turks" image, though artistic, suggests IO targeting specific international relationships, likely related to NATO or regional influence. Colonelcassad highlights a Saudi-Pakistan mutual defense pact, likely intending to show a shifting global alignment away from Western influence. MoD Russia meeting with Nigerian Chief of Defence Staff is used to project growing global partnerships. "Colonelcassad" posts a book cover of "Sudzha. There and back," likely intending to reinforce the narrative of RF presence and control in border regions, and potentially to commemorate or romanticize military actions. "Kotsnews" posts a video of Putin thanking State Duma deputies, a clear IO effort to project internal unity and strong leadership. "Рыбарь" posts an image with the caption "Radicals at the doorstep," aiming to frame Ukrainian nationalist groups as a threat and justify RF actions. ASTRA reports that "Peace to All" has been declared "undesirable" in Russia, indicating intensified suppression of dissent and anti-war sentiment. Colonelcassad posts a photo message stating that Tetyana Chornovol has been appointed to the Verkhovna Rada "instead of the killed Parubiy," and claims she "has a certificate of schizophrenia." This is a direct RF IO attack to discredit Ukrainian political figures and institutions. Игорь Артамонов posts a photo message promoting a father of three, a Cossack and patriot, serving as a volunteer on the front since 2022, aimed at boosting morale and volunteerism. Военкор Котенок reports that European media is writing about Poles conducting a large-scale revision of bomb shelters in preparation for a possible war with Russia, which is RF IO amplifying perceived NATO fear and justifying RF military posture. Операция Z amplifies a "Военкоры Русской Весны" report claiming that "every third Pole will leave Poland if Russia attacks," which is a clear RF IO tactic to sow fear and demonstrate perceived weakness in Poland. STERNENKO posts a video of Donald Trump stating that Putin "kills many people" and "loses more people than he kills," and that "Russian soldiers are dying more than Ukrainian," which is US-based IO but will be amplified by UAF. Рыбарь posts a video on "illegals as a threat to Kazakhstan" which is an RF IO effort to promote internal security narratives and link migration to threats, potentially aiming to justify tighter border controls or influence regional policy. Alex Parker Returns reports Trump's statement that the "Ukrainian conflict no longer threatens World War III," which RF IO will amplify to project a de-escalatory narrative. Новости Москвы posts a photo message about "Tanuki preparing to open a restaurant on the Moon," a clear RF IO attempt to distract from the conflict and project normalcy. Глеб Никитин posts a video presenting a "Sports Nizhny Novgorod" metaverse, a soft power IO effort to project Russian technological advancement and civic engagement. Два майора posts a video "Ukrainian Record or At the sight of a Russian drone, take off your hat," which is a clear RF IO effort to portray Russian drone superiority and demoralize UAF. Kotsnews posts a video "Evening Bell" with images of the LADA Niva production line, which is an RF IO attempt to project civilian industrial normalcy and resilience. "Два майора" posts a video promoting the "depoliticization" of Joseph Stalin's contribution to WWII, a clear RF IO attempt to rehabilitate Stalin's image and leverage historical narratives for contemporary political goals. "Рыбарь" posts a video titled "Timely Terrorist Attack" (Своевременный теракт), which depicts armed individuals in an urban environment with Arabic exclamations. This is likely an RF IO attempt to link terrorism to external actors or to preemptively blame UAF for any internal incidents, potentially indicating a false flag operation or an attempt to divert attention. Colonelcassad posts images of a public protest in Paris, aiming to highlight Western internal disunity and instability. "Новости Москвы" posts a photo message about an iPhone launch, a blatant RF IO attempt to distract from the conflict and project normalcy. "РБК-Україна" reports that a former Ukrainian brigadier general who betrayed Ukraine in 2014 is commanding the assault on Kupiansk, which RF IO will amplify to portray internal Ukrainian weakness and defection. TASS reports RF is challenging the ICAO decision on MH17 at the ICJ. TASS reports Володин stated the State Duma will support the Ministry of Economic Development on migration issues, reinforcing the narrative of state control and internal stability. Alex Parker Returns broadcasts a statement from Trump saying it is "not the time to ask Putin for a ceasefire", which RF IO will leverage to depict Western disunity and an inability to influence Russian policy. ASTRA reports details of a school attack in Voronezh Oblast with the caption "You won't live, I'm already close." This serves RF IO to highlight internal security threats and potentially justify tightening controls. TASS reports the former Deputy Head of Khimki, Kaygorodov, was detained for large-scale fraud. This internal RF legal action will be spun as a fight against corruption, maintaining an image of rule of law. Операция Z amplifies Trump's statement about not asking Putin for a ceasefire, reinforcing RF IO on Western disunity. ТАСС reports the USA in the UN Security Council vetoed a resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. Alex Parker Returns posts inflammatory photo and video messages against "Ukrainians" and "Nazis," using a meme of Navalny as a zombie. ТАСС reports Trump expressed hope that the incident in Poland (likely referring to the F-16 missile incident from prior reports) was caused by loss of drone control. РБК-Україна reports Trump stating that relations between Putin and Zelenskyy are "terrible" and they "hate each other." РБК-Україна shares a video of Donald Trump commenting on the incident where Russian drones entered Polish airspace. Trump expresses disappointment in Putin and claims he could have ended the war quickly, indicating RF IO will likely spin this as Western confusion or disagreement on Russian actions, or a sign of Trump's desire for a quick resolution. Оперативний ЗСУ amplifies Trump's statement, "Russian drones should not have attacked Poland: they were quickly put out of action, and I don't want to comment on this," indicating UAF IO is monitoring and leveraging perceived contradictions or uncertainties in Western statements regarding border incidents. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message amplifying Trump's statement that relations between Putin and Zelensky are "terrible" and they "hate each other," serving as RF IO to portray an irreconcilable conflict. РБК-Україна further amplifies Trump's statements, emphasizing his disappointment in Putin and the mutual hatred between Putin and Zelenskyy, but also adding Trump's belief that "we will find a solution," creating a complex narrative that RF IO will try to exploit. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo and video message about an "Entrance forbidden to Jews" sign in Northern Germany, linking it to rising antisemitism and likely aiming to draw parallels with historical injustices or highlight European societal issues, potentially to deflect from RF's own actions or criticize European values. ТАСС posts a photo message with a caption criticizing "begging for protection from the aggressor," directly aiming to discredit Western aid to Ukraine and portray Ukraine as dependent. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message claiming Rostec structures service UAF helicopters, intended to create distrust and suggest internal corruption/collaboration. Colonelcassad posts a video depicting the destruction of a UAF "Baba-Yaga" heavy hexacopter and DRG, designed to project RF defensive successes and UAF losses. Colonelcassad also promotes Wagner Group training in Belarus, emphasizing their "unique combat experience" to portray RF and allied military superiority. Alex Parker Returns posts images and videos of a damaged residential area, but with a text that states it cannot be used for military analysis, an odd meta-commentary that could be a subtle IO tactic itself, or a poorly executed one. MoD Russia posts "Top News Today" as a collage, serving as a general IO effort to project activity and control the narrative of daily events. ТАСС reports Putin released Kozak from his position as Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration, indicating a high-level personnel change which RF IO will attempt to frame positively. Alex Parker Returns publishes a photo message indicating a proposal for new "contributions from restaurant checks for SVO needs," framed as a positive citizen initiative for the war effort, while implicitly criticizing an "endless source of funding" in "one special republic" (likely referring to Chechnya), indicating subtle internal RF IO. Новости Москвы posts a video of S7 Airlines presenting new employee uniforms, a blatant RF IO attempt to project normalcy and a functioning civilian economy. ТАСС reports Trump believes China is ready to finalize the TikTok sale to US companies, demonstrating RF's continued monitoring and reporting on international business and geopolitical events, often for IO purposes. Colonelcassad posts a photo message quoting Trump saying it is "not the time to ask Putin for a ceasefire," which RF IO will amplify to project RF strength and an unwavering stance. New intelligence shows TASS reports Minister of Finance Siluanov's statement on an expected 12-13% key rate for the 2026 budget, indicating continued focus on economic stability messaging. Операция Z amplifies a Business Insider report predicting a world crisis in 2026, which RF IO will likely leverage to portray Western economic instability. Colonelcassad posts videos and images from the "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition, promoting RF military heroism and displaying destroyed enemy equipment (unattributed to specific units). "Военкоры Русской Весны" (amplified by Операция Z) claims a former UAF officer who defected in 2014 is commanding the Russian offensive on Kupiansk, a narrative that RF will leverage to sow discord within UAF.
  • UAF Narratives: Emphasis on repelling RF assaults, successful deep strikes (Salavat refinery, Buk-M2), and the capture of RF personnel (425th Regiment "Skelya", "STRIKS" unit successes, border guard strikes, SBU agent detention, Kharkiv spotter detention, 35th Combined Arms Army casualties list) reinforces UAF's fighting capability and resolve. Zelenskyy's report of successful counter-offensive in Donetsk Oblast, including liberated territory and significant RF casualties, is a major boost to this narrative. The active public fundraising for advanced FPV drones ("best drones to work with") is a key part of this narrative. Reconnaissance personnel are highlighted as key to victory. The destroyed Poltava monument helicopter also serves as a symbol of resilience. UAF artillery displaying adaptability and continuous operation also reinforces this. President Zelenskyy's direct engagement with frontline units in Donetsk Oblast and the 82nd Air Assault Brigade command post further supports this narrative. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts reinforcing soldier morale. The 1st Assault Regiment's success near Dobropillya reinforces this. President Zelenskyy meeting with 79th Air Assault Brigade soldiers directly supports the narrative of resilience and success, highlighting specific unit involvement in current operations. KMVA reports no aerial targets over Kyiv, indicating successful air defense. The arrival of US PURL weapons is a strong narrative for continued international support and UAF capabilities. The Presidential Brigade of UAF posts a video showcasing night combat operations, emphasizing vigilance and effectiveness. Dnipropetrovsk ODA Head visiting emergency medical services championship highlights preparedness and resilience in the face of attacks. Zaporizhzhia ODA posts about evacuating young footballers, highlighting humanitarian efforts amidst conflict. "Підрозділ Shadow" posts video of successful drone strikes on RF shelters, reinforcing UAF precision strike capabilities. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts video of the UAF 1st Assault Battalion holding its front line in Zaporizhzhia and destroying enemy forces with FPV drones, confirming UAF effectiveness and morale. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts video of the "STRIKS" unit's FPV drone successes on the Southern Slobozhansky direction, further confirming advanced tactical drone integration. Олександр Вілкул posts a briefing detailing the transfer of 10 DJI Matrice 4T quadcopters to the 77th Airmobile Brigade. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a photo message featuring a drone with the caption "Дальність? Вітер? Борт заармовано?" (Range? Wind? Board armed?), indicating UAF's technical focus on drone operations. The "VARTOVI" unmanned systems battalion and 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" are actively demonstrating effective drone operations. Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement about Ukraine using 1000 interceptor drones daily indicates an immediate and significant scaling of UAF counter-UAV capabilities. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts multiple photo messages showcasing a tactical screen with telemetry data. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement that Ukraine will use 1000 interceptor drones per day in the near future, indicating a strategic shift towards large-scale counter-UAV operations. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts video of the 1st Assault Battalion using FPV drones against RF checkpoints and transport. "Николаевский Ванёк" posts a video of a captured Cuban mercenary, used to expose RF recruitment issues and highlight the disillusionment of RF foreign fighters, boosting UAF morale. Documenting casualties (Konstantinovka КАБ strike killing 5 civilians), damage to civilian infrastructure (Nizhyn, Zaporizhzhia), and war crimes allegations (exhumation videos, Donetsk displacement photos) aims to highlight RF atrocities and maintain international support. The opening of a memorial alley in Zaporizhzhia directly reinforces the narrative of sacrifice and remembrance. Demining efforts highlight UAF efforts to protect civilians. Dnipropetrovsk ODA reporting КАБ and drone strikes on civilian communities highlights RF aggression and humanitarian impact. Renewed air alerts in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast are implicitly used to highlight ongoing RF aggression against civilian areas. Reports on investigations into TCC officials and high-level fraud, recent corruption busts in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the investigation into a pro-Russian judge, the detention of Novinsky (RPC curator), and the uncovering of an organized gambling network in Kyiv demonstrate commitment to transparency and good governance. Prosecution of an FSB officer for war crimes. Life sentence for an FSB officer who brutally treated civilians in Kherson Oblast demonstrates accountability for war crimes. Exposure of a human trafficking ring led by a PRC citizen. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the conviction of a "Rashist" who oversaw the "Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation" during the occupation of Kherson, which serves to project UAF's commitment to justice and accountability. Zelenskyy's statements confirming successful operations on RF territory and the impact on the RF fuel sector highlight UAF's growing asymmetrical capabilities. Highlighting security cooperation agreements with partners like Greece and the new drone cooperation agreement with Poland, including a joint operational group. New military aid from Ireland. Poland checking bomb shelters also indirectly signals allied seriousness about RF threats. РБК-Україна reporting Starmer's commitment to help Ukraine with Trump (photo message) promotes this. Trump's statements about "Putin letting him down" and hopes for "good news" on the Ukraine settlement are being used by UAF IO to highlight potential divisions in the West's perception of Putin's actions and a desire for peace on Ukraine's terms. Confirmation of US PURL weapons arrival is a strong narrative for continued international support and UAF capabilities. Operatyvny ZSU also reports the first US PURL weapon delivery. An EU Ambassador emphasizing the need for energy reforms in Ukraine (РБК-Україна) highlights continued international interest and support for Ukraine's long-term stability. UAF IO material depicting soldiers in combat and sacrifice, often leveraging emotional elements like a fallen soldier with a cat, reinforces patriotic narratives. Training initiatives for national resistance also foster patriotism. The Military Ombudsman law emphasizes caring for service members. The Coordination Headquarters provides critical support for families of POWs/MIAs, bolstering morale. Active reporting on the return of bodies of fallen servicemen demonstrates transparency and care for personnel. Report on no elections in 2026 implies UAF IO to justify wartime measures. Appointment of Tetyana Chornovol as people's deputy highlights democratic processes. РБК-Україна posts a photo message featuring an analytical piece titled "War, Ukraine, the world. What to pay attention to today," which frames ongoing events from a Ukrainian perspective. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the EU will accelerate its rejection of Russian liquefied natural gas due to pressure from Trump, positioning this as a positive outcome for Ukraine. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video with an inflammatory caption against the "second army," displaying strong anti-RF sentiment and bolstering UAF morale and resolve. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a video compilation documenting over 1300 combat engagements in the last seven days, with nearly a third on the Pokrovsk direction. This is a direct UAF IO effort to demonstrate the intensity of fighting and the active engagement of UAF forces across multiple axes, countering RF claims of disorganization. РБК-Україна posts a photo message stating Zelenskyy invited Qatar to a summit in New York regarding the return of Ukrainian children, highlighting humanitarian diplomacy. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo message detailing the exposure of heads of military medical commissions in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts for bribery, promoting transparency and anti-corruption efforts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo message announcing the opening of a mental health center in Ternopil for military personnel and veterans, emphasizing support for service members. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts drone footage of Mykolaiv marines (VARTOVI battalion) successfully striking Russian vehicles, artillery, and infantry, demonstrating UAF effectiveness and boosting morale. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts drone footage of the 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" destroying eight Russian assault troops on the Pokrovsk direction, further reinforcing the narrative of successful UAF operations and precision. "РБК-Україна" refutes claims of a "data leak" from e-Notariat, serving to reassure the public about data security and counter RF disinformation. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports RF is distributing "evacuation" leaflets in Velyka Pysarivka, Sumy Oblast, which UAF IO can frame as a sign of RF desperation or fear of UAF counter-action. "Оперативний ЗСУ" crowdfunding for the Pokrovsk direction highlights continued public support. "Colonelcassad" posts an image claiming Russian forces destroyed "Georgian mercenary Yura Kalandarishvili," which RF IO will use to discredit foreign fighters and claim successes against NATO-aligned personnel, but UAF IO can use it to highlight the international nature of the conflict and RF's willingness to target foreign fighters. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a humorous video with "victory music," likely a morale-boosting effort. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that a former Ukrainian brigadier general who betrayed Ukraine in 2014 is commanding the assault on Kupiansk, a narrative highlighting internal betrayal which UAF IO can use to emphasize the enemy's reliance on such figures. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна reporting on the "Gerbera" UAV fragment found in Latvia highlights RF external aggression. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights Prime Minister Shmyhal's statement about 1000 interceptor drones daily, boosting morale by projecting a strong, adaptive, and technologically advanced defense. UAF IO will likely frame the EU's accelerated rejection of Russian LNG (Bloomberg) as a victory for international pressure and a sign of weakening Russian economic power. UAF IO will counter RF amplification of Trump's "no ceasefire" statement by highlighting it as evidence that international leaders recognize Putin's unwillingness to genuinely negotiate, reinforcing UAF's resolve to continue fighting. РБК-Україна highlights Poland conducting large-scale checks of bomb shelters, framing it within the context of European readiness to RF threats. РБК-Україна shares a video of Donald Trump suggesting Europe taking action against China could accelerate the end of the war in Ukraine, which UAF IO will likely monitor for opportunities to reinforce narratives of international pressure on RF. Оперативний ЗСУ posts messages regarding Russia's challenge to the ICAO decision on MH17, framing it as Russia attempting to evade responsibility. РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Pavlohrad, and Николаевский Ванёк reports successful downing of drones. These immediate reports from UAF-aligned channels serve as direct IO reinforcing UAF's active defense and effectiveness. New intelligence shows ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting that Ukraine produces 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month, aiming for 7 daily by year-end, which will be leveraged to project growing domestic defense capabilities. The UAF Air Force (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) reporting 20+ Shaheds from Chernihiv to Kyiv is a direct and immediate UAF IO response highlighting ongoing RF threats and UAF defensive vigilance. The Air Force of Ukraine (Повітряні Сили ЗС України) report on a group of UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Kyiv Oblast also serves as a critical, immediate UAF IO communication.

LATEST INTELLIGENCE (182209Z - 182232Z SEP 25):

• RF IO (Rybаr): Рыбарь posts a message "🇺🇸🇻🇪Вы думаете, это реально оказалась по итогу лодка с 60-тью наркосами?", which is likely an attempt to deflect or create an alternative narrative about US operations or internal issues. The Dempster-Shafer analysis attributes a "Law Enforcement Operation: Drug Interdiction by United States Coast Guard in Caribbean Sea" belief to this, indicating a possible misdirection or highly specific, localized IO.
• UAF IO (Active Defense): UAF-aligned channels are actively reporting on the ongoing drone attack on Kyiv, emphasizing air defense work and confirming impacts. This serves to maintain public awareness, boost morale through demonstrating active defense, and highlight RF aggression. The direct reports from КМВА, РБК-Україна, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, and Николаевский Ванёк are examples of real-time, transparent IO.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

• Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:
  • Capabilities (Confidence: HIGH): RF continues to demonstrate robust ground offensive capabilities on multiple axes, supported by significant artillery and glide bomb resources. They possess advanced FPV drone and reconnaissance UAV capabilities. RF maintains a strong strategic aviation and naval presence, conducting exercises like "Zapad-2025" and "Rubezh 2025." The capability to conduct deep strikes (Salavat refinery implies UAF capability) and high-volume drone attacks is confirmed. RF retains a sophisticated information warfare apparatus capable of multi-layered disinformation campaigns. Their ability to recruit and deploy foreign nationals (Cuban mercenaries) and controversial personnel (pardoned criminals) reflects ongoing efforts to augment manpower. RF is adapting its tactics, experimenting with UGVs and attempting urban infiltration. They possess advanced EW capabilities (Orlan-30 drone EW resistance). The reported construction of a new "Shahed" drone launch facility (Bryansk Oblast) indicates growing production capacity for UAVs and an advanced launch posture. RF continues to train allied forces, as evidenced by Wagner's training of Belarusian forces. RF leadership has demonstrated the capability to make high-level personnel changes, as seen with Kozak's release. RF maintains economic stability, as indicated by the Ministry of Finance's budget forecasts. RF has secured a commander for the Kupiansk offensive with prior UAF experience, potentially offering a tactical advantage. LATEST: RF demonstrates a continued capability for high-intensity, multi-wave drone attacks targeting the capital, specifically Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast.
  • Intentions (Confidence: HIGH): RF intends to maintain offensive pressure on key axes (Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia) to achieve territorial gains and attrit UAF forces. They aim to degrade Ukrainian critical infrastructure (energy, railways) through persistent aerial attacks. RF intends to continue robust information warfare to sow discord, demoralize UAF, and undermine international support. They will leverage geopolitical events and Western internal divisions for IO. RF also intends to protect its internal security and project an image of stability. The continuation of large-scale military exercises (Zapad-2025) indicates intent for sustained long-term military readiness and projection of power. RF intends to continue targeting UAF heavy artillery, as evidenced by the Konstantinovka M109A5 strike. RF appears to be increasing pressure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, as claimed by Воин DV. RF intends to project internal unity and strong leadership (MoD Russia's "Top News Today"). Russia's challenge to the ICAO decision on MH17 at the ICJ indicates an intention to continue challenging international legal frameworks and deny accountability. The "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition indicates an intent to sustain public support and morale for the conflict. RF's new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast signals an intention to increase aerial pressure on northern Ukraine. RF will continue to leverage historical narratives, such as Stalin's role in WWII, to promote national unity and justify current actions. LATEST: RF intends to sustain and potentially escalate aerial pressure on Kyiv, likely as a retaliatory measure for the Salavat deep strike, and to inflict psychological impact and further degrade air defense systems. The ongoing drone attack on Kyiv confirms this immediate intention.
  • Courses of Action (Confidence: HIGH):
    • Ground: Sustained ground offensives on Kupiansk-Lyman, Southern Donetsk (Novoivanovka), Pokrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia (Kamyanske, Plavni) axes, with attempts at localized encirclements and urban combat. Continued use of combined arms, FPV drones, and possibly unconventional infiltration tactics. Counter-DRG operations (e.g., against "Baba Yaga" drones) will continue. The use of a former UAF officer to command the Kupiansk assault suggests an intent to exploit specific knowledge of UAF defenses and vulnerabilities.
    • Aerial: High-volume drone and missile attacks targeting critical infrastructure, particularly energy and railway networks, with a continued willingness to use guided aerial bombs on civilian targets (e.g., Konstantinovka). Expect retaliatory strikes for UAF deep strikes. Continued drone activity towards Pavlohrad, and now, significantly, increased drone threats to Kyiv from Chernihiv and Bryansk Oblasts. The newly reported Shahed launch facility in Bryansk Oblast indicates a potential for increased drone volume and shorter flight times to northern Ukraine. LATEST: Immediate high-volume drone attack against Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast. This COA is currently active.
    • Hybrid/IO: Intensified disinformation campaigns focusing on UAF disorganization, corruption, and internal divisions (e.g., the alleged GUR vs. President's Office conflict, the former UAF brigadier general commanding the Kupiansk assault). Amplification of RF internal security successes and alleged UAF atrocities. Leveraging any Western political statements or domestic issues to sow discord. RF will actively attempt to discredit UAF external support by claiming internal corruption or illicit dealings (e.g., Rostec servicing UAF helicopters). They will continue to challenge international legal decisions (e.g., MH17) to undermine international consensus against them. RF will leverage high-level personnel changes (Kozak's dismissal) to project an image of effective governance and adapt its internal narratives. RF IO will continue to monitor and leverage international political statements (e.g., Trump's comments on TikTok, China, and ceasefire) to shape global perceptions. RF will also leverage internal economic news (e.g., budget forecasts) to project stability, and portray Western economies as facing crisis (e.g., Business Insider report). The "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition is an ongoing IO effort to reinforce patriotism and military heroism. RF IO will continue to promote the rehabilitation of historical figures like Stalin to unify narratives. RF will use ambiguous or pre-emptive messaging (e.g., "Timely Terrorist Attack" video) to create confusion or prepare for false flag operations. RF will continue to attempt to distract from the conflict by promoting narratives of normalcy within Russia (e.g., iPhone launch, S7 uniforms). RF will amplify any Western statements (e.g., Trump's "no ceasefire" stance) that appear to align with RF's position of strength. RF will also use external geopolitical developments (e.g., Turkey's interest in BRICS/ASEAN) to project a shifting global alignment away from Western dominance. LATEST: RF IO is attempting to create alternative narratives (e.g., "boat with 60 drug addicts" by Рыбарь) to distract or misdirect from current events, potentially attempting to counter UAF successes or deflect from RF actions. RF diplomatic channels are open for discussion with the US regarding diplomatic missions, implying an intention to maintain low-level communication despite military conflict.
    • Asymmetric: Continued deep strikes into RF territory (e.g., Salavat refinery) against industrial and logistical targets by UAF. RF will respond with intensified aerial campaigns.
• Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:
  • RF urban infiltration tactics (via gas pipes) in Kupiansk.
  • Deployment of "Kurier" and "Fagot" UGVs.
  • Alleged use of civilian clothing for disguise and human shields in Yampil assault.
  • Increased claims of targeting UAF M109A5 howitzers using FPV drones and artillery in coordinated strikes.
  • Development of polyamide nets to neutralize loitering munitions.
  • Increased focus on identifying and neutralizing UAF DRGs, particularly those utilizing heavy drones ("Baba Yaga" type), on the Dnieper axis.
  • Allegations of RF-affiliated entities (Rostec) indirectly providing maintenance support to UAF helicopters, if true, indicate potential covert logistical channels or deliberate economic opportunism.
  • RF has established a new "Shahed" drone launch facility near Ukraine in Bryansk Oblast, indicating a tactical adaptation to sustain or increase drone attack capabilities, particularly against northern Ukraine.
  • RF is using a former UAF brigadier general to command the Kupiansk assault, which is a tactical adaptation to exploit specific knowledge of UAF defenses.
• Logistics and Sustainment Status:
  • RF continues to resupply forces on multiple axes, indicated by sustained offensive operations. Railway infrastructure within Ukraine remains a target, but the extent of disruption to RF logistics is unclear. RF continues to recruit personnel through financial incentives and controversial methods (pardoned criminals), suggesting a need to sustain manpower. Public fundraising for "Front-line armor" by "Два майора" suggests some reliance on civilian support for equipment, though this is likely supplementary. Военкор Котенок's report about a deficit of medics at the front indicates potential strain on RF medical sustainment capabilities, especially relevant for prolonged, high-intensity offensives. Alex Parker Returns's video of a logistics truck in a damaged village confirms ongoing forward logistics operations, likely facing harsh conditions. The proposal for new "contributions from restaurant checks for SVO needs" (Alex Parker Returns) suggests a continuing reliance on alternative or supplementary funding for military needs, indicating potential strain on official budgets or a desire to broaden public involvement. Military police of the Western Group of Forces are reported to be assisting farmers in LNR, indicating resource allocation to maintain basic economic functions in occupied territories, potentially leveraging military assets.
• Command and Control Effectiveness:
  • RF maintains operational cohesion across multiple axes. Putin's involvement in "Zapad-2025" and meetings with Duma leaders (Два майора) suggest high-level political engagement with military operations. RF is reportedly enhancing C2 networks in key offensive areas like Krasnoarmeysk. The resignation of Dmitry Kozak and extension of General Gerasimov's term (previous report) indicate high-level continuity and political-military alignment. The incident with the Lviv wiretap (previous report) suggests persistent RF intelligence efforts to compromise UAF C2. The dismissal of Kozak, while a high-level personnel change, is presented as a controlled administrative decision by RF IO. The claim of a former UAF officer commanding the Kupiansk assault, if true, suggests RF is leveraging specific expertise for improved tactical C2.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

• Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:
  • UAF maintains a generally defensive posture but is capable of localized counter-offensives (e.g., Pankivka, Zarichne, Dobropillya-Pokrovsk sector). Readiness is high across key axes, demonstrated by repelling numerous RF assaults. Units like the 77th Airmobile Brigade, 6th Azov Battalion, 1st Assault Regiment, "Shadow" unit, STRIKS unit, Mykolaiv marines' "VARTOVI" battalion, and 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds" are actively engaged and demonstrating effectiveness.
  • UAF is actively integrating tactical drones (FPV, thermal) for ISR, precision strikes, and night operations, with a significant scale-up anticipated (1000 interceptor drones daily). Ukraine is also increasing domestic missile production, with 50 "Flamingo" missiles per month, aiming for 7 daily.
  • Personnel mobilization and welfare are ongoing priorities, with efforts to combat corruption within the TCC system and support for POW/MIA families and mental health services.
  • Strategic deep strike capability has been demonstrated against the Salavat petrochemical complex, extending UAF's operational reach.
  • UAF maintains vigilance against RF's international legal maneuvers, as evidenced by monitoring Russia's challenge to the MH17 decision. LATEST: UAF Air Defense is actively engaged in defending Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast against an ongoing RF drone attack, demonstrating high readiness and effectiveness.
• Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:
  • Successes:
    • Successful UAF counter-offensive in the Dobropillya-Pokrovsk area, liberating 160 sq km and 7 settlements, and inflicting significant RF casualties (100 POWs, 2500+ casualties).
    • Successful deep strike on the Salavat petrochemical complex in Bashkortostan.
    • Successful defense against RF "pincer" maneuver near Dobropillya by the 1st Assault Regiment.
    • Repelling numerous RF assaults on Kramatorsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Kherson, Kursk, and North Slobozhansky directions.
    • Destruction of an RF Buk-M2 SAM system by the 15th Separate Artillery Reconnaissance Brigade "Black Forest."
    • Successful FPV drone strikes by various units (Azov, Shadow, STRIKS, 1st Assault Battalion, Mykolaiv marines, 414th UAV Brigade) on RF personnel, positions, and equipment.
    • Successful internal security operations: detention of Novinsky (RPC curator), SBU detention of RF agent, exposure of corruption in military medical commissions.
    • Confirmation of first US PURL weapons delivery.
    • Successful body exchange, returning 1000 fallen servicemen.
    • Successful air defense against drone attacks on Pavlohrad.
    • Increased domestic missile production of "Flamingo" missiles.
    • Continued high-level engagement with NATO on security guarantees.
  • Setbacks:
    • Sustained heavy RF pressure on multiple axes (Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Southern Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia), forcing UAF to commit new groups.
    • Lethal RF guided aerial bomb strike on Konstantinovka residential area (5 killed, 19 injured), and drone strikes on civilian infrastructure across multiple oblasts.
    • Ongoing issues with corruption in mobilization system (military medical commissions).
    • Russian forces reportedly entering and consolidating in residential areas of Kupiansk (Deep State amplified by RF).
    • Reports of an RF FPV drone and artillery strike destroying a UAF M109A5 howitzer near Konstantinovka (Colonelcassad).
    • Reports of RF ground activity by "CENTER" and "VOSTOK" groups in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Воин DV).
    • Continued heavy RF aerial activity, including threats to Kyiv from Chernihiv and potentially the newly identified Bryansk launch site. LATEST: A drone fall and explosion has occurred in the Solomianskyi district of Kyiv, indicating a partial success of the RF drone attack, despite active air defense.
• Resource Requirements and Constraints:
  • Requirements: Continued air defense assets (especially counter-UAV and anti-glide bomb capabilities), advanced ISR platforms, FPV drones, artillery ammunition, and medical supplies (given reported RF medical deficit). Sustainment of international military and financial aid, including Javelin missiles for Poland, which indirectly strengthens NATO's eastern flank. Continued increase in domestic missile production.
  • Constraints: High operational tempo and persistent RF aerial attacks place a strain on air defense resources. Manpower constraints necessitate efficient recruitment and retention strategies. The ongoing threat of cyberattacks demands robust cyber defense. The reported corruption in military medical commissions highlights a constraint on effective personnel mobilization. LATEST: The ongoing drone attack on Kyiv underscores the continuous high demand for air defense munitions and operational capacity, potentially constraining resources for other sectors.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

• Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:
  • RF Narratives (Confidence: HIGH): RF is actively attempting to discredit UAF's counter-offensive success in Donetsk, downplay its own losses, and amplify any perceived UAF setbacks or disorganization. They are aggressively using the Konstantinovka civilian casualties and the 1000:24 body exchange ratio (highly exaggerated) to paint a picture of UAF failure and RF military prowess. RF IO is leveraging Trump's statements to sow confusion and portray Western disunity on Ukraine support, particularly his "Putin let me down" and "terrible relations between Putin and Zelenskyy" comments. They are attempting to link rising antisemitism in Europe to broader societal decay (Flensburg incident) to deflect from their own actions. RF is also using narratives of internal RF stability and normalcy (Kamchatka earthquake, civilian fundraising efforts for armor) to mask the impact of the war. They actively promote their military technology and manpower (700k troops). RF will use the US Gaza ceasefire veto to portray the US as hypocritical. Alex Parker Returns's claim of Rostec structures servicing UAF helicopters is a new, subtle IO attempt to sow distrust and imply corruption or collaboration. Colonelcassad's video of UAF DRG destruction aims to project RF defensive successes and UAF losses. Colonelcassad's promotion of Wagner training in Belarus aims to enhance the image of RF military capability and expertise. RF continues to challenge international decisions (MH17) to portray itself as a victim of international bias. MoD Russia's "Top News Today" serves as a general IO effort to control the daily narrative. The ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ channel's complaints about a low-participation fundraising marathon might inadvertently reveal internal strains within some pro-RF volunteer networks, but is framed as a call for more support. ТАСС reports Putin released Kozak from his position as Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration. RF IO will likely frame this as a routine or positive administrative change to reinforce an image of strong, decisive leadership. Alex Parker Returns's post on "contributions from restaurant checks for SVO needs" is an IO effort to promote public support for the war, while also subtly criticizing perceived resource allocation disparities, possibly aimed at internal dissent. Новости Москвы's video about S7 Airlines' new uniforms and TASS's report on Trump's TikTok statements are examples of RF IO attempting to project normalcy, economic stability, and engagement with international issues unrelated to the conflict, as a distraction. Colonelcassad's quote of Trump on "not asking Putin for a ceasefire" will be amplified to project RF strength and an unwavering stance, implying that only RF's terms will lead to peace. TASS reports Minister of Finance Siluanov's statement on an expected 12-13% key rate for the 2026 budget, indicating continued focus on economic stability messaging. Операция Z amplifies a Business Insider report predicting a world crisis in 2026, which RF IO will likely leverage to portray Western economic instability. Colonelcassad posts videos and images from the "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition, promoting RF military heroism and displaying destroyed enemy equipment (unattributed to specific units). "Военкоры Русской Весны" (amplified by Операция Z) claims a former UAF officer who defected in 2014 is commanding the Russian offensive on Kupiansk, a narrative that RF will leverage to sow discord within UAF. LATEST: Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) is actively propagating video messages depicting "shooting and explosions" in Kyiv, aiming to amplify the perceived impact of the drone attack and generate panic or demoralization among the Ukrainian population. Рыбарь's message about "60 drug addicts" in the Caribbean attempts to distract from the current situation by focusing on unrelated, sensationalist topics.
  • UAF Narratives (Confidence: HIGH): UAF is actively promoting its counter-offensive success in Donetsk and the strategic deep strike on Salavat as evidence of military capability and resolve. They highlight successful defensive actions and tactical drone effectiveness. UAF emphasizes international support (PURL, NATO discussions) and democratic accountability (anti-corruption efforts, prosecution of collaborators). Patriotic symbols (Motherland Monument projections) are used to boost morale. UAF is actively collecting and disseminating HUMINT from captured RF personnel to expose RF recruitment issues and low morale. UAF seeks to counter RF claims of atrocities and disorganization with verified facts and footage. UAF uses Trump's "Putin let me down" statement to highlight perceived divisions in the West's view of Putin's actions and a desire for peace on Ukraine's terms. UAF actively monitors and counters Russia's international legal maneuvering (MH17). UAF-aligned channels will emphasize successful air defense operations against drone attacks (Pavlohrad). UAF IO will leverage the increased domestic production of "Flamingo" missiles to project growing self-sufficiency and strength. UAF IO will continue to report on incoming drone threats to maintain vigilance and highlight RF aggression, particularly with the new drone launch site near Bryansk Oblast. The US approval of Javelin sales to Poland reinforces a narrative of strong allied support against RF threats. LATEST: UAF-aligned channels (КМВА, РБК-Україна, Повітряні Сили ЗС України, Николаевский Ванёк, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) are actively providing real-time updates on the ongoing drone attack on Kyiv, confirming air raid alerts, PVO operations, and impacts. This serves as transparent communication to the public, reinforces the image of active defense, and counters RF narratives of unchallenged success.
• Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:
  • Ukrainian Sentiment (Confidence: HIGH): Morale is bolstered by the successful counter-offensive in Donetsk and the Salavat deep strike. Public support for the military is strong, evident in crowdfunding for drones. There is ongoing concern for civilian casualties from RF aerial attacks (Konstantinovka) and a determination to resist. Patriotism is reinforced through symbolic displays (Motherland Monument). Morale is also boosted by successful air defense responses (Pavlohrad). Increasing domestic missile production will further boost morale and sense of self-reliance. Continued air alerts, especially on Kyiv, will maintain a state of heightened vigilance but also reinforce resolve against aggression. LATEST: The ongoing drone attack on Kyiv will undoubtedly heighten public anxiety and fear, but simultaneously reinforce national resolve and support for air defense efforts. Reports of successful interceptions will be crucial for maintaining morale. The reported impact in Solomianskyi district could cause localized fear and anger.
  • Russian Sentiment (Confidence: MEDIUM): RF leadership attempts to project high morale and inexhaustible resources (700k troops, Zapad-2025). However, reports of internal unit difficulties (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) and reliance on civilian fundraising (Два майора, Alex Parker Returns) suggest underlying strains. The Alex Parker Returns video of decomposing bodies implies significant losses. The ongoing censorship and suppression of dissent indicate internal vulnerabilities. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ's complaints about fundraising indicate potential public apathy or fatigue within the pro-RF segment. The internal criticism within Alex Parker Returns's post regarding funding sources suggests some public discontent or awareness of corruption. The "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition aims to bolster public sentiment by showcasing heroism. The narrative about a former UAF officer commanding the Kupiansk assault might be intended to boost morale by suggesting insider advantage. LATEST: No direct new information on Russian sentiment, but the ongoing Kyiv attack will be portrayed by RF IO as a successful retaliation, boosting pro-war sentiment.
• International Support and Diplomatic Developments:
  • Support for Ukraine (Confidence: HIGH): Continued US military aid (PURL) and high-level engagement with NATO (Umierov-Turner meeting) underscore robust international support. Discussions within the EU about using frozen RF assets for Ukraine indicate sustained financial commitment. Poland's heightened alert (bomb shelter checks) reflects a serious allied posture. The US State Department's approval of Javelin sales to Poland further demonstrates commitment to NATO's eastern flank.
  • Diplomatic Engagement: Trump's comments create a complex diplomatic environment, with both UAF and RF IO attempting to leverage his statements. The US veto of the Gaza ceasefire in the UNSC may be used by RF to undermine US credibility internationally. Russia's legal challenge to the MH17 decision at the ICJ is a continuation of their diplomatic efforts to deny responsibility and challenge international judicial processes. Trump's statements on TikTok and China's readiness to finalize a deal indicate ongoing US-China economic and diplomatic activity, which has indirect implications for global stability and thus for Ukraine. TASS reporting on RF economic forecasts and global economic crises will be part of RF's diplomatic messaging. Turkey's interest in BRICS and ASEAN (TASS) indicates a multipolar diplomatic landscape that RF will seek to exploit to undermine Western influence. LATEST: TASS reports that Washington hopes to agree on the next diplomatic negotiations with Moscow regarding diplomatic missions "when it is convenient for both sides." This indicates a continuation of low-level diplomatic engagement despite active hostilities.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA 1: Sustained Ground Offensive on Kupiansk-Lyman, Southern Donetsk, Pokrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia Axes (Confidence: HIGH)

• Actions: RF will continue to concentrate forces and intensify ground assaults on Kupiansk and the Serebryansky forestry area, aiming for local encirclements and urban control. They will likely attempt to capitalize on claimed advances and reported UAF disorganization in Kupiansk, employing urban infiltration tactics (e.g., via gas pipes, sewers). On the Lyman axis, RF will push for a decisive encirclement in Serebryansky forestry, using combined arms and possibly disguised DRGs. Concurrently, RF will maintain and potentially intensify offensives on the Southern Donetsk direction, specifically around Novoivanovka, leveraging artillery and drone support, and continue to pressure the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) agglomeration, including urban/semi-urban combat. Furthermore, RF will likely escalate attempts to break through towards Zaporizhzhia via Kamyanske and and Plavni. Localized advances on targets like Novonikolaevka, Malaya Tokmachka, Otradnoye, and in Dnipropetrovsk/Eastern Zaporizhzhia will persist to stretch UAF defenses. Precision MLRS strikes will continue on UAF positions, with a continued willingness to use guided aerial bombs on civilian targets (e.g., Konstantinovka). RF forces from "Zapad-2025" may be redeployed to active combat zones, potentially including the Kyiv axis, as implied by Janus Putkonen. Aggressive recruitment with high financial incentives will be sustained to back these operations. RF will also continue to enhance C2 networks in key offensive areas (e.g., Krasnoarmeysk direction). Putin's statements on over 700k personnel on the line of contact, though possibly inflated, suggest a high readiness to commit manpower. RF Army Aviation (Ka-52m) will continue to provide direct fire support to ground operations in relevant sectors (MoD Russia). RF will continue to leverage controversial recruitment methods (e.g., pardoned criminals) to sustain manpower for these offensives (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС). Cluster Iskander strikes against UAF company tactical groups (Druzhkivka) indicate an ongoing intent to target UAF troop concentrations. Deployment of foreign mercenary personnel (e.g., Cubans) will continue to supplement RF ground forces (Николаевский Ванёк). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming strikes on UAF positions on the Donetsk direction, indicating continued localized ground offensive support. Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming "Akhmat" special forces successfully used a KVN drone to strike a UAF pickup truck with infantry in a wooded area on the Kharkiv direction, claiming "3 dead fighters," directly indicating ground offensive actions supported by precision UAVs. Воин DV posts video detailing renewed artillery strikes and attacks on enemy personnel in the Polozhskoye direction, demonstrating continued offensive operations. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo of a tactical map implying RF claims of significant territorial control or advances in Kupiansk, supporting the likelihood of continued ground offensives. Despite "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reporting a "difficult period," RF ground offensives are likely to continue, with emphasis on using "evacuation" leaflets in Sumy Oblast (Velyka Pysarivka) as a psychological operation possibly preceding or accompanying ground incursions in border regions. Военкор Котенок's video, highlighting a deficit of medics, suggests a potential for RF to continue large-scale offensives despite sustainment challenges. Операция Z amplifying discussions about a "veterans day" holiday reinforces RF's intent to sustain morale for continued operations. RF's 3rd Army Corps will continue to conduct FPV drone and artillery strikes against UAF heavy equipment (M109A5 howitzer near Konstantinovka) to degrade UAF fire support. RF "CENTER" and "VOSTOK" groups will continue ground operations in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to maintain pressure and potentially achieve localized advances. The General Staff reports from UAF indicate significant RF ground engagement across multiple axes. RF will intensify counter-DRG operations (e.g., against UAF "Baba Yaga" drone groups on the Dnieper) to protect their positions and logistical routes. RF Wagner Group personnel training Belarusian forces indicates an intent to increase readiness and potentially integrate these forces into future operations. The "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition promotes a narrative of heroism to support ongoing ground operations. The appointment of a former UAF officer to command the Kupiansk offensive suggests a deliberate strategy to leverage insider knowledge for potential breakthroughs. Military police of the Western Group of Forces providing assistance to farmers in LNR (Colonelcassad) indicates continued RF presence and attempts to stabilize occupied territories while freeing up other units for combat.
• Indicators: Continued RF tactical map updates showing small, incremental advances; increased drone activity for ISR and fire correction in these sectors; amplification of "UAF collapse" narratives by RF IO; sustained high-intensity artillery and glide bomb strikes in these areas. HUMINT from captured RF soldiers will detail specific infiltration tactics. Continued RF claims of destroying UAF strongholds and temporary deployment points in key areas like Konstantinovka and Malaya Tokmachka. Increased reports of RF armor (e.g., T-72 variants) in offensive actions. Visual evidence of ongoing fighting in Novoivanovka. MoD Russia reports on C2 improvements in Krasnoarmeysk. Рыбарь's map updates confirming "fights in the agglomeration." RF IO citing UAF sources on advances towards Zaporizhzhia. MoD Russia video showing Ka-52m strikes on AFU positions. Continued reports from TASS of fierce clashes near Konstantinovka. Increased reports of Iskander missile use against tactical targets. Reports of foreign mercenaries (e.g., Cubans) in combat indicate a sustained effort to augment ground forces. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video claiming strikes on UAF positions on the Donetsk direction, serving as an indicator of continued ground pressure. Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming "Akhmat" special forces successfully used a KVN drone to strike a UAF pickup truck with infantry on the Kharkiv direction, serving as an indicator of continued tactical offensive operations. Воин DV posts video of drone operators hitting enemy manpower, indicating continued tactical offensive operations. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a photo of a tactical map claiming a critical situation in Kupiansk, indicating ongoing ground combat and RF claims of UAF setbacks. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reporting operational strain for RF units could be an indicator of unsustainable tempo, but RF still maintains offensive. Distribution of "evacuation" leaflets in Sumy Oblast is a key indicator of potential RF ground operations in border areas. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a video of RF logistical activity, which is an indicator of sustained ground operations. The "Every 5 minutes a new doctor at the heart" video from Военкор Котенок, despite the medical focus, is used as an indicator of ongoing and intense combat, requiring such medical efforts. Операция Z's amplification of the "veterans day" proposal is an indicator of continued efforts to maintain internal morale for ongoing and future operations. Colonelcassad's video of the M109A5 destruction near Konstantinovka indicates ongoing precision targeting of UAF artillery. Воин DV's video claiming "hunting" in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with drone footage of military vehicles and explosions, indicates continued RF ground activity. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's report of over 80 combat engagements and RF assaults across multiple axes confirms ongoing heavy RF ground pressure. Colonelcassad's video of a destroyed UAF DRG and "Baba Yaga" drone is an indicator of active RF counter-DRG operations. Alex Parker Returns's video of a logistics truck in a damaged village confirms ongoing forward logistics operations in contested areas. The "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition, by portraying military achievements, indicates an ongoing commitment to the ground conflict. The claim of a former UAF officer commanding the Kupiansk assault (Операция Z) will be a key indicator for RF IO. Military police assisting farmers (Colonelcassad) indicates RF's broader presence and control in occupied areas.
• MLCOA 2: High-Volume Aerial Campaign Targeting Critical Infrastructure, particularly in Northeastern Oblasts (Confidence: HIGH)
• Actions: RF will launch another large-scale drone (Shahed) and possibly missile attack within 24-48 hours, maintaining the increased volume seen in the last wave (70-100+ UAVs, potential for 170+). The primary focus will remain on degrading Ukraine's energy grid (substations) and railway network (junctions, depots) to disrupt logistics and civilian resilience as winter approaches. Secondary targets may include military repair facilities and large logistics hubs, and military objects in Kyiv Oblast, as seen with the recent "night arrival" strikes. The detected UAV heading to Kramatorsk indicates continued localized aerial threats. The lethal КАБ strike on Konstantinovka suggests continued use of guided aerial bombs on urban areas. RF tactical aviation will remain active on the eastern direction, posing a threat to Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. A UAV threat has been reported in Kyiv (STERNENKO, Klichko), which indicates ongoing intent to target the capital. Persistent КАБ activity in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts confirms this as an ongoing COA. A new group of drones heading from Chernihiv to Kyiv Oblast confirms renewed targeting of the capital region. This will likely be intensified as a retaliatory measure for the Salavat refinery strike. Renewed air alerts and drone activity over Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast indicate an immediate continuation of this COA (РБК-Україна, КМВА). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV (moped) on the outskirts of Kyiv, confirming an immediate aerial threat. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video showing a village under what appears to be artillery or missile strikes, with multiple houses on fire, directly indicating continuation of aerial/artillery attacks on populated areas. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs (mopeds) moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast, indicating persistent RF aerial threats. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a person was injured in Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast, due to a drone attack and falling debris, which confirms ongoing aerial strikes impacting populated areas. The reported construction of a new "Shahed" drone launch facility (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) indicates an intent to sustain or increase the volume of drone attacks. Kyiv subway's partial suspension due to an air raid alarm highlights the immediate and ongoing aerial threat. A fragment of a Russian "Gerbera" UAV found on a Latvian beach suggests continued RF drone activity with potential to stray or fail over NATO territory. Air Force of Ukraine reports active tactical aviation in the northeast and guided aerial bomb (КАБ) launches towards Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. This indicates immediate and sustained threat of precision aerial attacks in these regions, likely targeting both military and civilian infrastructure. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБы ➡️ на Донеччину! (Guided aerial bombs towards Donetsk Oblast!). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district). Николаевский Ванёк reports three UAVs approaching Pavlohrad, and Pavlohrad commencing defensive actions, indicating immediate execution of this COA. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs (mopeds) from Kharkiv Oblast heading towards Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast, confirming continued drone threat to Dnipropetrovsk. LATEST: RF is currently conducting a drone attack on Kyiv. Based on real-time reporting, multiple UAVs (approx. 12 initially, 6-8 remaining) are targeting Kyiv, and an impact has already been reported in the Solomianskyi district. This confirms the ongoing execution of a high-volume aerial campaign, specifically targeting the capital. This action likely serves as immediate retaliation for the Salavat refinery strike.
• Indicators: Reconnaissance UAV activity preceding strikes; warning from UAF Air Force about multiple drone groups and guided aerial bombs (e.g., in Kharkiv Oblast); increased media reporting on power outages and railway delays; RF IO claiming successful strikes on Ukrainian military targets; RF IO amplifying UAF commander statements predicting winter blackouts. Continued UAF Air Force warnings of aviation munition threats in Eastern Oblasts. STERNENKO and Klichko's reports of UAV threats in Kyiv, followed by KMVA's all clear, indicates an active aerial threat environment over the capital. Further UAF Air Force warnings regarding UAV movement in Mykolaiv and Chernihiv/Kyiv Oblasts, and КАБ launches in Zaporizhzhia. Active air defense responses in Kyiv Oblast and Kyiv itself indicate ongoing drone threats. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV (moped) on the outskirts of Kyiv, serving as an immediate indicator of renewed aerial threats. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video showing a village under what appears to be artillery or missile strikes, serving as an indicator of continued aerial/artillery attacks. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs (mopeds) moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast, indicating persistent drone threats. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a person was injured in Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast, due to a drone attack and falling debris, which serves as an immediate indicator of renewed aerial threats. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting on a new "Shahed" drone launch facility is a strong indicator of intent for continued aerial campaigns. The partial suspension of Kyiv subway services due to an air raid alarm is a direct, immediate indicator of ongoing aerial threats. The discovery of a "Gerbera" UAV fragment in Latvia is an indicator of RF drone operational reach and potential failures. UAF Air Force warnings regarding КАБ launches on Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts are immediate, real-time indicators of this COA being executed. UAF Air Force reports of КАБ activity on Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts are immediate, real-time indicators of this COA expanding. Николаевский Ванёк's report of drones approaching Pavlohrad and air defense activity are immediate indicators of this COA in action. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs (mopeds) from Kharkiv Oblast heading towards Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast, indicating a continued aerial threat. LATEST: Air raid alerts in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast, real-time reports of inbound UAVs, active air defense (PPO), explosions, and a confirmed drone impact in Solomianskyi district, Kyiv, are all direct and immediate indicators that this MLCOA is actively being executed. The high volume of drones reported (12+ initially) is consistent with a retaliatory large-scale strike.
• MLCOA 3: Intensified Hybrid and Information Operations (Confidence: HIGH)
• Actions: RF will leverage the discovery of the Lviv wiretap and their claims of UAF disorganization in Kupiansk to launch a coordinated disinformation campaign. This campaign will aim to sow distrust between the Ukrainian military leadership and civilian government, and within the UAF ranks, while simultaneously portraying Ukraine as a failed state riddled with corruption and internal betrayal. They will continue to use "captured agent confessions" and internal security successes (St. Petersburg terror plot, Bucha repost sentencing, VKontakte fines, new fines for anti-war sentiment, harsh sentences in occupied territories, Baza producer release to house arrest, "drunk serviceman" incident, advice on scammers, migration policy enforcement) as part of this narrative to bolster their own image and demonize Ukraine. A new focus will be on discrediting foreign fighters and linking them to criminal activity, and promoting narratives of UAF war crimes (e.g., attacking ambulances, killing civilians with FPV drones). The SBU detention of an RF agent and Kharkiv spotter will likely be counter-narrated. Propaganda aimed at undermining international support for Ukraine (e.g., "Europe pays, USA earns") will be amplified. RF will also use non-military events like sports tournaments and domestic reports to project normalcy. The RF Ministry of Defense's proposal for a state concept of "constructing the image of Russia's enemy" signals a long-term, coordinated information warfare strategy. Lavrov's statements will be disseminated to frame RF's diplomatic stance, including his UNGA meeting. RF will further integrate SMO veterans into political activities to reinforce patriotic narratives. RF media will amplify internal dissent incidents (e.g., Moscow restaurant manager, "kolkhoz woman") to demonstrate state control. RF will specifically attempt to spin or counter the impact of Trump's statements about Putin "letting him down" regarding Ukraine, and Starmer's diplomatic efforts, to avoid perceptions of RF diplomatic isolation or failure. Putin's statements on inflation during parliamentary meetings will also serve to project economic control and stability. The IO will also use the messaging from БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (regarding Putin's comments on criminals as "replacements") to further their narrative about Ukraine's leadership. RF will specifically target narratives about US/NATO military aid (PURL) to undermine confidence and claim Western "escalation." RF will amplify Trump's claims about oil prices impacting the war to sow confusion and externalize blame. RF IO will continue to use highly nationalistic and aggressive content (e.g., Alaudinov's speech) to counter any UAF morale boosts. RF will amplify any Western internal divisions (e.g., Paris protests) to demonstrate weakness. RF will use claims about "Myrotvorets" adding Russian children to demonize Ukraine internationally. RF will specifically exploit reports of internal Ukrainian leadership "conflict" (e.g., GUR vs. President's Office) to amplify discord and undermine confidence in Kyiv's leadership (РБК-Україна). RF will continue to amplify statements from Western leaders (e.g., Trump) that align with RF narratives, such as the idea that the "threat of WW3 has passed" or that falling oil prices can end the conflict (TASS). RF will use soft propaganda (e.g., "Mash na Донбассе" cat videos, TASS reports on domestic issues) to distract and project normalcy. ASTRA reports "Peace to All" declared "undesirable" in Russia, indicating direct hybrid action to suppress dissenting viewpoints and reinforce state narratives. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of Donald Trump making a confused statement about resolving a conflict between "AzerbaiZhan and Albania," which RF IO will actively amplify to portray Western leadership as inept and disorganized. Colonelcassad posts a photo message stating that Tetyana Chornovol has been appointed to the Verkhovna Rada "instead of the killed Parubiy," and claims she "has a certificate of schizophrenia," directly demonstrating a hybrid operation to discredit Ukrainian political figures through disinformation. ТАСС reports on Putin's closed-door meeting with Duma faction leaders, where he reportedly discussed the front situation in detail, which is part of a larger IO effort to project strong, unified leadership and internal stability. Операция Z amplifies a "Военкоры Русской Весны" report claiming Poland is preparing for war with Russia by checking bomb shelters nationwide, which RF IO uses to portray NATO as aggressive and justify RF's military posture. Новости Москвы reports a proposal to deprive unemployed Russians of free medicine, which could be part of a broader social engineering strategy linked to hybrid warfare, aiming to exert economic pressure or control on segments of the population. Игорь Артамонов posts a photo message promoting a father of three, a Cossack and patriot, serving as a volunteer on the front since 2022, aimed at boosting patriotism. Военкор Котенок reports European media coverage of Polish bomb shelter checks for possible war with Russia, which is RF IO amplifying perceived NATO fear and justifying RF military posture. Операция Z amplifies a "Военкоры Русской Весны" report claiming that "every third Pole will leave Poland if Russia attacks," which is a clear RF IO tactic to sow fear and demonstrate perceived weakness in Poland. STERNENKO posts a video of Donald Trump stating that Putin "kills many people" and "loses more people than he kills," and that "Russian soldiers are dying more than Ukrainian," which is US-based IO but will be amplified by UAF. Рыбарь posts a video on "illegals as a threat to Kazakhstan" which is an RF IO effort to promote internal security narratives and link migration to threats, potentially aiming to justify tighter border controls or influence regional policy. Alex Parker Returns reports Trump's statement that the "Ukrainian conflict no longer threatens World War III," which RF IO will amplify to project a de-escalatory narrative. Новости Москвы posts a photo message about "Tanuki preparing to open a restaurant on the Moon," a clear RF IO attempt to distract from the conflict and project normalcy. Глеб Никитин posts a video presenting a "Sports Nizhny Novgorod" metaverse, a soft power IO effort to project Russian technological advancement and civic engagement. Два майора posts a video "Ukrainian Record or At the sight of a Russian drone, take off your hat," which is a clear RF IO effort to portray Russian drone superiority and demoralize UAF. Kotsnews posts a video "Evening Bell" with images of the LADA Niva production line, which is an RF IO attempt to project civilian industrial normalcy and resilience. "Два майора" posts a video promoting the "depoliticization" of Joseph Stalin's contribution to WWII, a clear RF IO attempt to rehabilitate Stalin's image and leverage historical narratives for contemporary political goals. "Рыбарь" posts a video titled "Timely Terrorist Attack" (Своевременный теракт), which depicts armed individuals in an urban environment with Arabic exclamations. This is likely an RF IO attempt to link terrorism to external actors or to preemptively blame UAF for any internal incidents, potentially indicating a false flag operation or an attempt to divert attention. Colonelcassad posts images of a public protest in Paris, aiming to highlight Western internal disunity and instability. "Новости Москвы" posts a photo message about an iPhone launch, a blatant RF IO attempt to distract from the conflict and project normalcy. "РБК-Україна" reports that a former Ukrainian brigadier general who betrayed Ukraine in 2014 is commanding the assault on Kupiansk, which RF IO will amplify to portray internal Ukrainian weakness and defection. TASS reports RF is challenging the ICAO decision on MH17 at the ICJ. TASS reports Володин stated the State Duma will support the Ministry of Economic Development on migration issues, reinforcing the narrative of state control and internal stability. Alex Parker Returns broadcasts a statement from Trump saying it is "not the time to ask Putin for a ceasefire", which RF IO will leverage to depict Western disunity and an inability to influence Russian policy. ASTRA reports details of a school attack in Voronezh Oblast with the caption "You won't live, I'm already close." This serves RF IO to highlight internal security threats and potentially justify tightening controls. TASS reports the former Deputy Head of Khimki, Kaygorodov, was detained for large-scale fraud. This internal RF legal action will be spun as a fight against corruption, maintaining an image of rule of law. Операция Z amplifies Trump's statement about not asking Putin for a ceasefire, reinforcing RF IO on Western disunity. ТАСС reports the USA in the UN Security Council vetoed a resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. Alex Parker Returns posts inflammatory photo and video messages against "Ukrainians" and "Nazis," using a meme of Navalny as a zombie. ТАСС reports Trump expressed hope that the incident in Poland (likely referring to the F-16 missile incident from prior reports) was caused by loss of drone control. РБК-Україна reports Trump stating that relations between Putin and Zelenskyy are "terrible" and they "hate each other." РБК-Україна shares a video of Donald Trump commenting on the incident where Russian drones entered Polish airspace. Trump expresses disappointment in Putin and claims he could have ended the war quickly, indicating RF IO will likely spin this as Western confusion or disagreement on Russian actions, or a sign of Trump's desire for a quick resolution. Оперативний ЗСУ amplifies Trump's statement, "Russian drones should not have attacked Poland: they were quickly put out of action, and I don't want to comment on this," indicating UAF IO is monitoring and leveraging perceived contradictions or uncertainties in Western statements regarding border incidents. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message amplifying Trump's statement that relations between Putin and Zelensky are "terrible" and they "hate each other," serving as RF IO to portray an irreconcilable conflict. РБК-Україна further amplifies Trump's statements, emphasizing his disappointment in Putin and the mutual hatred between Putin and Zelenskyy, but also adding Trump's belief that "we will find a solution," creating a complex narrative that RF IO will try to exploit. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo and video message about an "Entrance forbidden to Jews" sign in Northern Germany, linking it to rising antisemitism and likely aiming to draw parallels with historical injustices or highlight European societal issues, potentially to deflect from RF's own actions or criticize European values. ТАСС posts a photo message with a caption criticizing "begging for protection from the aggressor," directly aiming to discredit Western aid to Ukraine and portray Ukraine as dependent. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message claiming Rostec structures service UAF helicopters, intended to create distrust and suggest internal corruption/collaboration. Colonelcassad posts a video depicting the destruction of a UAF "Baba-Yaga" heavy hexacopter and DRG, designed to project RF defensive successes and UAF losses. Colonelcassad also promotes Wagner Group training in Belarus, emphasizing their "unique combat experience" to portray RF and allied military superiority. Alex Parker Returns posts images and videos of a damaged residential area, but with a text that states it cannot be used for military analysis, an odd meta-commentary that could be a subtle IO tactic itself, or a poorly executed one. MoD Russia posts "Top News Today" as a collage, serving as a general IO effort to project activity and control the narrative of daily events. ТАСС reports Putin released Kozak from his position as Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration, indicating a high-level personnel change which RF IO will attempt to frame positively. Alex Parker Returns publishes a photo message indicating a proposal for new "contributions from restaurant checks for SVO needs," framed as a positive citizen initiative for the war effort, while implicitly criticizing an "endless source of funding" in "one special republic" (likely referring to Chechnya), indicating subtle internal RF IO. Новости Москвы posts a video of S7 Airlines presenting new employee uniforms, a blatant RF IO attempt to project normalcy and a functioning civilian economy. ТАСС reports Trump believes China is ready to finalize the TikTok sale to US companies, demonstrating RF's continued monitoring and reporting on international business and geopolitical events, often for IO purposes. Colonelcassad posts a photo message quoting Trump saying it is "not the time to ask Putin for a ceasefire," which RF IO will amplify to project RF strength and an unwavering stance. New intelligence shows TASS reports Minister of Finance Siluanov's statement on an expected 12-13% key rate for the 2026 budget, indicating continued focus on economic stability messaging. Операция Z amplifies a Business Insider report predicting a world crisis in 2026, which RF IO will likely leverage to portray Western economic instability. Colonelcassad posts videos and images from the "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition, promoting RF military heroism and displaying destroyed enemy equipment (unattributed to specific units). "Военкоры Русской Весны" (amplified by Операция Z) claims a former UAF officer who defected in 2014 is commanding the Russian offensive on Kupiansk, a narrative that RF will leverage to sow discord within UAF. LATEST: RF IO is actively disseminating content (Операция Z) that claims "shooting and explosions" in Kyiv, aiming to amplify the psychological impact of the drone attack and generate fear. Рыбарь's recent message (🇺🇸🇻🇪Вы думаете, это реально оказалась по итогу лодка с 60-тью наркосами?) could be a diversionary tactic to draw attention away from the Kyiv attack and other RF military actions.
• Indicators: Increased RF media output focusing on internal Ukrainian divisions, corruption, and "spy scandals"; specific targeting of UAF commanders or government officials in IO narratives; amplification of any domestic Ukrainian protests or social tensions (e.g., wounded soldier's appeal); increased reporting on RF internal security successes, and content discrediting foreign fighters, and new claims of UAF atrocities. Continued RF IO on veteran integration and domestic normalcy. Putin's focus on migration policy and land grants for veterans. RF statements attempting to downplay or reframe international diplomatic discourse regarding Ukraine, particularly Trump's comments. Direct RF media commentary on PURL or other Western aid packages. RF media focusing on commodity prices and their impact on global politics. Increased nationalistic and anti-Western rhetoric from high-level RF figures. Increased reporting on alleged Ukrainian "war crimes" against civilians or children. RF amplification of internal Ukrainian reports of GUR/President's Office "conflict." ASTRA reports "Peace to All" declared "undesirable" in Russia, serving as an indicator of intensified censorship and information control. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of Donald Trump making a confused statement about resolving a conflict between "Azerbaijan and Albania," serving as an indicator that RF IO will amplify narratives portraying Western leadership as inept. Colonelcassad posts a photo message claiming a Ukrainian politician has "schizophrenia" and was "shoved" into the Rada, serving as an indicator of continued RF IO to discredit Ukrainian political figures. ТАСС reports on Putin's closed-door meeting with Duma faction leaders, serving as an indicator of RF's efforts to project strong leadership and internal unity. Операция Z amplifies a "Военкоры Русской Весны" report claiming Poland is preparing for war with Russia by checking bomb shelters nationwide, serving as an indicator of RF IO to portray NATO as aggressive. Новости Москвы reports a proposal to deprive unemployed Russians of free medicine, serving as an indicator of potential social engineering or propaganda related to internal policy. Игорь Артамонов posts a photo message promoting a volunteer, serving as an indicator of morale-boosting IO. Военкор Котенок reports European media coverage of Polish bomb shelter checks, serving as an indicator of RF IO to amplify perceived NATO threats. Операция Z amplifies a "Военкоры Русской Весны" report claiming one-third of Poles would flee, serving as an indicator of RF IO to sow fear and imply weakness. Рыбарь posts a video on "illegals - a threat to Kazakhstan," serving as an indicator of RF IO to promote internal security narratives. Alex Parker Returns reports Trump's statement about WW3 no longer being threatened, serving as an indicator of RF IO to project de-escalation. Новости Москвы posts a photo message about "Tanuki preparing to open a restaurant on the Moon," serving as an indicator of RF IO to distract and project normalcy. Глеб Никитин posts a video presenting a "Sports Nizhny Novgorod" metaverse, serving as an indicator of RF soft power IO. Два майора's video "Ukrainian Record or At the sight of a Russian drone, take off your hat" serves as a direct indicator of RF IO to portray drone superiority. Kotsnews posts a video "Evening Bell" with images of the LADA Niva production line, serving as an indicator of RF IO for industrial normalcy. "Два майора" post on "depoliticizing" Stalin. "Рыбарь"'s "Timely Terrorist Attack" video will be followed by further IO if a false flag is conducted. RF amplification of the former Ukrainian brigadier general commanding the Kupiansk assault will indicate RF's specific targeting of internal Ukrainian divisions. RF IO will monitor the Trump-Xi Jinping call for any narratives that can be spun to RF's advantage. The discovery of a "Gerbera" UAV fragment in Latvia might trigger new RF IO narratives blaming NATO or Ukraine for border incidents. Immediate amplification of Trump's "no ceasefire" statement by RF-aligned channels (Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z) is a direct indicator of this COA in action. Военкор Котенок's rapid assessment and visual dissemination of alleged incidents serve as immediate indicators of RF's responsive IO. ASTRA's reports on internal security incidents like the Voronezh school attack, and TASS reports on corruption arrests, will be actively leveraged by RF IO to control narratives around internal stability and security. TASS reporting the US veto on Gaza ceasefire is an indicator of RF IO immediately seizing on international events to discredit Western foreign policy. Alex Parker Returns's inflammatory anti-Ukrainian posts are indicators of the continued use of extreme propaganda by RF-aligned channels. TASS reporting Trump's view on the Poland incident as drone control loss is an indicator of RF IO attempting to shape narratives around border security incidents. РБК-Україна reporting Trump's view on Putin/Zelenskyy relations is an indicator that RF IO will amplify narratives of irreconcilable differences. РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ amplifying Trump's comments on drones in Poland indicates RF IO will attempt to exploit any Western ambiguity on such incidents. Alex Parker Returns and РБК-Україна emphasizing Trump's "Putin and Zelenskyy hate each other" statement directly indicates RF IO's efforts to portray an unresolvable conflict. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS's posts on antisemitism in Germany are an indicator of RF IO attempting to create negative narratives about European societies. ТАСС's photo message criticizing "begging" for defense aid is a direct indicator of RF IO trying to delegitimize international support. Alex Parker Returns's photo message claiming Rostec servicing UAF helicopters is an indicator of new, subtle IO to sow distrust. Colonelcassad's video of UAF DRG destruction is an indicator of RF IO projecting defensive success. Colonelcassad's promotion of Wagner training is an indicator of RF IO projecting strength. ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZA's complaints about fundraising are an indicator of potential internal strain that RF IO may attempt to spin. TASS reports Putin released Kozak from his position. This is an indicator of RF leadership making visible internal changes, which will be framed positively by RF IO. Alex Parker Returns's post on "contributions from restaurant checks for SVO needs" is an indicator of RF IO attempting to rally public support for the war effort, while also hinting at internal resource discussions. Новости Москвы's S7 Airlines video and TASS's TikTok report are indicators of RF IO efforts to distract from the conflict and project normalcy. Colonelcassad's quote of Trump on "no ceasefire" is an indicator of RF IO using statements from influential Western figures to reinforce their own narratives of strength and determination. LATEST: Операция Z's immediate dissemination of "shooting and explosions" in Kyiv is a direct and rapid IO response to the ongoing drone attack, designed to amplify fear and chaos. Рыбарь's message about "narcotics" is an indicator of diversionary IO tactics being employed.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA 1: Operational Encirclement and Collapse of Kupiansk/Serebryansky Defense (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• Actions: RF achieves a rapid breakthrough or encirclement of UAF forces in Serebryansky forestry or Kupiansk, leading to a large-scale withdrawal or surrender of UAF units. This could involve an unexpected deep strike, coordinated mechanized assault, or the successful exploitation of a command and control vulnerability exposed by intelligence operations like the Lviv wiretap or the detention of the Kharkiv spotter. This would free up significant RF forces for redeployment to other axes. The reported former Ukrainian brigadier general commanding the Kupiansk assault, if true, could provide RF with critical insights into UAF defenses, increasing the risk of encirclement.
• Impact: A significant strategic and psychological blow to Ukraine, potentially destabilizing the entire Northeastern front and granting RF a major territorial gain.

MDCOA 2: Mass Cyberattack Synchronized with Physical Strikes (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• Actions: RF launches a sophisticated, widespread cyberattack against Ukraine's critical infrastructure (energy, communications, banking) synchronized with a large-scale physical missile and drone strike wave. This could aim to disable key C2 networks, emergency services, and civilian communications, causing widespread chaos and disrupting UAF response capabilities. The construction of a new "Shahed" drone launch facility (Bryansk Oblast) indicates a potential for increased drone volume to support such a synchronized attack.
• Impact: Severe disruption to civilian life and UAF operations, potentially overwhelming emergency response and creating significant C2 challenges across multiple domains.

MDCOA 3: Provocation Escalation on NATO Border (Confidence: LOW)

• Actions: Following the F-16 missile incident in Poland (if RF-aligned, or a false flag), RF conducts a deliberate, low-intensity military provocation against a NATO border country (e.g., a drone incursion into Polish or Baltic airspace with intent to cause damage, or a direct border incident), aiming to test NATO's response and exploit any perceived divisions. The identified drone launch from Belarus into Lithuania underscores this capability, as does the reported OMON casualties during demining operations near the border. Increased RF-China security cooperation could embolden RF to take such actions. Estonia's "Lightning" exercises will be closely watched by RF. Solovyov's proposal regarding North Korean border guards, if implemented, could further complicate border dynamics. Poland's heightened alert (bomb shelter checks) indicates a perceived risk. Colonelcassad highlighting the Saudi-Pakistan defense pact demonstrates RF's awareness and potential leveraging of shifting global power dynamics. Операция Z amplifies a "Военкоры Русской Весны" report claiming Poland is preparing for war with Russia by checking bomb shelters nationwide, which RF IO uses to portray NATO aggression and justify RF's military posture. This narrative, if acted upon, presents a dangerous escalation pathway. Военкор Котенок reports European media coverage of Polish bomb shelter checks, an RF IO narrative aiming to portray NATO aggression. Операция Z amplifies a "Военкоры Русской Весны" report claiming one-third of Poles would flee if Russia attacked, which is an RF IO tactic that could precede or accompany such a provocation. The "Рыбарь" video "Timely Terrorist Attack," while vague, could be a precursor to a false flag or misattributed incident that RF could use as a pretext for border escalation. The discovery of a "Gerbera" UAV fragment on a Latvian beach could be an unplanned precursor to such a provocation, or RF could use it as a pretext for aggressive rhetoric. Военкор Котенок's report of a Yemeni drone striking a hotel in Eilat, Israel, while not a direct RF action, could be observed and potentially replicated by RF or its proxies to test air defense responses or cause limited escalation in other regions. The ongoing large-scale checks of bomb shelters in Poland (РБК-Україна) suggest heightened NATO border concerns, making a provocation more impactful if successful. Trump's hope that the F-16 missile incident was due to loss of drone control suggests a desire to de-escalate, but this could be misinterpreted by RF as a sign of weakness, emboldening a calculated provocation. РБК-Україна's video of Trump commenting on drones in Poland, and Оперативний ЗСУ's amplification of his statements, indicate ongoing attention to the drone incident, which RF could still attempt to leverage or exploit. The US State Department's approval of Javelin sales to Poland (TASS) could be framed by RF as an aggressive act by NATO, potentially used as a pretext for increased border activity.
• Impact: Significant escalation of regional tensions, with potential for miscalculation and wider conflict involving NATO.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Kupiansk/Lyman/Southern Donetsk/Pokrovsk/Zaporizhzhia Offensives: Within 24-72 hours, RF will likely attempt to consolidate gains and push for decisive actions in Kupiansk, Serebryansky forestry, Novoivanovka, the Pokrovsk agglomeration, and towards Zaporizhzhia (Kamyanske, Plavni). Decision Point: If RF is confirmed to have encircled or severely compromised UAF positions in Serebryansky forestry or is actively fighting in the center of Kupiansk or achieving significant penetration in Pokrovsk or towards Zaporizhzhia, UAF Command will need to decide on either reinforcing, attempting a counter-encirclement, or a strategic withdrawal to preserve forces. President Zelenskyy's engagement in Dobropillya suggests intent to reinforce/stabilize the front and leverage successful counter-offensives. The success of the 1st Assault Regiment near Dobropillya needs to be factored in. The video from Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, detailing ongoing intense engagements across these axes, suggests that such decision points are imminent or already being addressed. The immediate operational strain reported by "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" may present a localized UAF opportunity on these axes if RF units are indeed degraded. Военкор Котенок's report on a deficit of medics suggests RF is facing sustainment strain for prolonged offensives, which could present an opportunity for UAF. The General Staff's report of over 80 combat engagements in the last 24 hours, with the majority being repelled, indicates that UAF decision points for these axes are being actively addressed through robust defensive operations. The counter-DRG operation by RF on the Dnieper highlights RF's efforts to interdict UAF offensive or reconnaissance actions and could impact UAF decision-making on that axis. The Wagner training of Belarusian forces implies longer-term readiness rather than an immediate decision point. The "SVO. Defenders of the Fatherland" exhibition, by boosting internal morale, suggests RF plans for sustained ground operations. The claim of a former UAF officer commanding the Kupiansk offensive necessitates an immediate internal assessment by UAF to identify potential vulnerabilities and inform tactical decisions.
• Aerial Campaign: Another large-scale RF aerial attack is likely within 24-48 hours, potentially aligned with seasonal conditions or tactical developments on the ground. A UAV threat has been reported in Kyiv, indicating immediate air defense engagement. Renewed air alerts in Kyiv Oblast and Kyiv itself indicate an immediate continuation of RF aerial attacks. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs (mopeds) moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a person was injured in Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast, due to a drone attack and falling debris. Air Force of Ukraine reports immediate КАБ activity on Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. This indicates ongoing execution of this COA. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports immediate КАБ activity on Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, suggesting a wider geographic focus for these attacks. Николаевский Ванёк's reports of drones approaching Pavlohrad and air defense engagement indicate immediate and ongoing execution of this COA. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of UAVs (mopeds) from Kharkiv Oblast heading towards Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast, signaling continued immediate threats. The ongoing drone activity, including air alerts in Zaporizhzhia, confirms this COA is active. The new drone launch site in Bryansk Oblast and reports of 20+ Shaheds and other UAV groups heading for Kyiv from Chernihiv Oblast indicate a critical, immediate decision point for Kyiv's air defenses. LATEST: The current drone attack on Kyiv is an immediate, ongoing execution of this COA. Decision Point: UAF Air Force and relevant commands are currently engaged in the immediate decision to allocate air defense assets and conduct active defense. Commanders must assess real-time intelligence on drone trajectories and remaining assets to prioritize targets and protect critical infrastructure, including civilian areas impacted by drone debris/impacts. The confirmed impact in Solomianskyi district necessitates immediate damage assessment and emergency response.
• Hybrid Operations: RF IO and intelligence operations will be continuous. Decision Point: UAF STRATCOM and CI must proactively counter RF narratives and conduct immediate sweeps following any new intelligence threats, especially concerning C2 integrity, and strengthen physical and cyber defenses. The new law on humanitarian transport will require rapid implementation to mitigate disruption. The appeal from the wounded soldier requires an urgent response to address potential morale issues. Lavrov's statements will require careful counter-narratives. The incident with the "kolkhoz woman" and any associated targeting of businesses by RF activists will need to be monitored. UAF STRATCOM must immediately integrate the narrative of the first PURL weapons delivery to bolster morale and deter RF IO efforts. Prepare and disseminate counter-narratives against RF claims regarding "Myrotvorets" and Russian children. Immediately address and refute any RF amplification of alleged "conflict between GUR and the President's Office" to maintain internal cohesion. Promote UAF efforts in providing mental health support to service members and veterans. Counter RF IO about NATO aggression and Polish fears. Actively refute RF IO linking "terrorism" to UAF, especially concerning the "Timely Terrorist Attack" video by "Рыбарь." Immediately counter RF IO narratives (e.g., Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z) amplifying Trump's "no ceasefire" statement, reframing it as a recognition of Putin's unwillingness to negotiate, and emphasizing UAF's continued resolve. UAF STRATCOM should prepare to preemptively counter or refute RF IO narratives that may arise from the Voronezh school attack (ASTRA) or the Khimki fraud detention (TASS), framing them within the context of RF's internal repression and corruption, rather than allowing RF to project an image of stability. Immediately counter RF IO narratives (TASS) portraying the US as a warmonger due to the Gaza ceasefire veto, emphasizing the complexities of the conflict and Ukraine's alignment with international law. Develop specific counter-narratives to the inflammatory rhetoric from Alex Parker Returns (Navalny zombie meme) to delegitimize RF-aligned propaganda and maintain morale. Address Trump's statements (РБК-Україна) about the "terrible" relationship between Putin and Zelenskyy by emphasizing Ukrainian unity against external aggression and the unprovoked nature of the conflict. UAF STRATCOM should proactively counter any RF attempts to exploit Trump's comments on drones in Poland, framing them within the context of RF's aggressive actions and the necessity of NATO vigilance. Discredit RF IO (ТАСС) that criticizes international aid as "begging," emphasizing the rightful support for a sovereign nation under attack. Leverage the visible patriotic display at the Motherland Monument to reinforce national unity and resilience. Address and refute the Alex Parker Returns claim about Rostec servicing UAF helicopters, highlighting it as a clear disinformation tactic intended to sow distrust. Proactively counter RF IO regarding their challenge to the MH17 decision, emphasizing the international community's findings. UAF STRATCOM should develop narratives that highlight internal RF leadership changes (Kozak's dismissal) as potential signs of weakness or internal re-shuffling rather than strength. UAF STRATCOM should monitor and potentially leverage any internal RF dissent or criticism surrounding proposals like "restaurant contributions" to highlight potential public fatigue or economic strain. UAF STRATCOM should be prepared to counter RF IO narratives that use distracting civilian news (S7 uniforms, TikTok) to divert attention from the conflict, by re-centering focus on the ongoing war and its realities. UAF STRATCOM should prepare to counter RF's amplification of Trump's "no ceasefire" statement by emphasizing that Ukraine remains committed to defending its sovereignty and will not yield to pressure. UAF STRATCOM should also counter RF IO narratives that promote narratives of global economic crisis or Russian economic stability (e.g., Siluanov's statements, Business Insider report) by highlighting the true costs of the war on Russia's economy and the resilience of the Ukrainian economy with international support. Leverage the "Flamingo" missile production announcement to project strength and self-reliance. A critical immediate decision point for UAF STRATCOM is to rapidly counter the RF IO narrative (Операция Z) that a former UAF officer is commanding the Kupiansk assault, as this aims to sow internal distrust. LATEST: UAF STRATCOM must immediately monitor and respond to RF IO regarding the ongoing Kyiv drone attack, preemptively countering narratives of overwhelming success and emphasizing UAF defensive capabilities.

INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CR)

1. Verification of RF Territorial Claims (CRITICAL - PRIORITY 1)

• Gap: Independent verification of RF claims regarding full control of Serebryansky forestry (Lyman axis) and the extent of RF penetration into Kupiansk's urban quarters, and the "liberation of Novonikolaevka," "Malaya Tokmachka," and "Otradnoye," and advances in Dnipropetrovsk/Eastern Zaporizhzhia, specifically Novoivanovka on the Southern Donetsk direction, claimed gains in the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) agglomeration, and the alleged breakthrough to Zaporizhzhia via Kamyanske and Plavni.
• Requirement: Task all-source ISR (SAR, EO/IR satellite imagery, drone overflights, HUMINT/SIGINT intercepts) to establish precise Lines of Contact (LOCs), confirm territorial control, and identify any UAF encirclement threats. Prioritize real-time imagery from these sectors.

2. Attribution and Network of Lviv Wiretap (CRITICAL - PRIORITY 2)

• Gap: Definitive attribution of the listening device in Lviv Mayor's office to RF intelligence agencies and identification of the full network involved.
• Requirement: Immediate, comprehensive counter-intelligence (CI) investigation, including forensic analysis of the device, technical surveillance counter-measures (TSCM) sweeps of all sensitive government/military facilities, and HUMINT collection on potential collaborators. This is a critical C2 protection requirement.

3. RF "Shahed" Drone Launch Facility (CRITICAL - PRIORITY 3)

• Gap: Verification of the newly reported "Shahed" drone launch facility (РБК-Україна, OSINT-analyst Brady Africk) in Bryansk Oblast, its exact location, capacity, and operational status. Confirm if it is a new facility or an adaptation of an existing one.
• Requirement: Task satellite imagery and SIGINT assets to confirm the existence and characteristics of this facility. Assess its potential impact on RF drone strike capabilities and logistics, especially for northern Ukraine.

4. Impact Assessment of RF Railway Strikes (HIGH - PRIORITY 4)

• Gap: Detailed Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the impact of RF strikes on Ukrainian railway infrastructure in Poltava and other regions, specifically regarding operational capacity and repair timelines.
• Requirement: Obtain specific imagery and technical reports on damaged railway sections, assessment of repair timelines, and impact on UAF logistics flow. Monitor RF intelligence for follow-up targeting.

5. UAF Morale and Sustainment Issues (HIGH - PRIORITY 5)

• Gap: Full assessment of the scope and depth of morale and sustainment issues among UAF personnel, as highlighted by the wounded soldier's appeal and any similar reports. Assess the impact of RF's financial incentives for contract soldiers on UAF personnel retention and morale.
• Requirement: Conduct targeted HUMINT collection among UAF personnel (focusing on non-sensitive issues), analyze social media for similar sentiments, and review internal reports on pay, benefits, and support systems to identify systemic issues impacting morale and readiness.

6. Verification of RF Casualties/Losses and Atrocity Claims (MEDIUM - PRIORITY 6)

• Gap: Independent verification of claims of 18 RF 35th Combined Arms Army officers killed in Zaporizhzhia due to sabotage (while the list of names adds credibility, the sabotage aspect remains unconfirmed) and the death of the 18-year-old son of a mobilized soldier. Verification of the OMON casualties in Oryol Oblast. Critically, independent verification of RF claims of UAF attacking an ambulance and deliberately killing a civilian with an FPV drone. Verification of the highly exaggerated casualty exchange ratios, and Putin's claim of 700k personnel on the line of combat. Verification of the specific charges and contexts of the captured RF soldiers discussing murder (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС). Verification of UAF casualties from the Iskander strike near Druzhkivka. Verification of "3 dead fighters" from the Kadyrov_95 video. Verification of the RF tank destruction footage posted by Два майора to confirm unit and location. Verification of "military truck on fire" incident and its attribution from Военкор Котенок's message. Verify the exact unit and location of RF medical deficit, as claimed by Военкор Котенок, to assess potential RF combat strain and operational tempo. Verify the specific charges and contexts of the RF casualties depicted in БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's new photo messages. Verify the destruction of the UAF M109A5 howitzer near Konstantinovka (Colonelcassad), including the specific unit affected and the munition used. Conduct BDA on the decomposing bodies shown in Alex Parker Returns's video, including unit identification and estimated time of death, to ascertain RF combat losses. Verify the destruction of the UAF DRG and "Baba-Yaga" heavy hexacopter on the Dnieper's right bank (Colonelcassad), including unit affiliation and specific location.
• Requirement: Cross-reference UAF claims with available SIGINT, social media monitoring (RF casualty reports/obituaries), and satellite imagery for any large gatherings (funerals) or changes in command personnel. Investigate RF atrocity claims through open-source forensics, satellite imagery of claimed locations, and HUMINT/SIGINT if possible, to counter disinformation rapidly. Conduct BDA for the Druzhkivka strike using imagery and HUMINT.

7. RF Recruitment Practices and Force Quality (MEDIUM - PRIORITY 7)

• Gap: Understanding the full extent and impact of RF's recruitment practices involving criminals (e.g., offering military service in lieu of punishment for serious crimes) on overall force quality, discipline, and unit cohesion. The potential for utilizing North Korean personnel on Russian borders. The extent and effectiveness of foreign mercenary recruitment (e.g., Cubans).
• Requirement: Monitor Russian legal system and social media for further instances and public reaction to these practices, and assess the potential implications for RF military discipline and composition through HUMINT from captured personnel and defectors. Monitor any developments regarding North Korean deployment in Russia. Analyze HUMINT from captured foreign mercenaries to understand recruitment, training, and operational realities.

8. Redeployment of Zapad-2025 Forces (MEDIUM - PRIORITY 8)

• Gap: Confirming the scale and destination of redeployments of forces involved in "Zapad-2025" exercises, specifically if they are being integrated into active combat operations against Kyiv or other axes, as claimed by RF IO (Janus Putkonen).
• Requirement: Utilize satellite imagery, SIGINT, and open-source intelligence to track significant troop movements from Belarusian training grounds and other "Zapad-2025" exercise areas.

9. Internal Ukrainian Information Environment (MEDIUM - PRIORITY 9)

• Gap: Assess the credibility and impact of reports regarding alleged "conflict between GUR and the President's Office" on Ukrainian public sentiment and military cohesion.
• Requirement: Monitor internal Ukrainian media, social media, and HUMINT to gauge public reaction and verify or refute the existence and extent of any such internal tensions. Coordinate with UAF STRATCOM for appropriate counter-messaging.

10. RF Leadership of Kupiansk Assault (LOW - PRIORITY 10)

• Gap: Verification of the claim that a former Ukrainian brigadier general who betrayed Ukraine in 2014 is commanding the assault on Kupiansk. Assess his specific expertise and potential impact on operations.
• Requirement: Task HUMINT from captured RF personnel in the Kupiansk sector and SIGINT to identify the commander. If confirmed, assess the intelligence implications for UAF defensive strategies in the region.

11. "Gerbera" UAV Fragment in Latvia (LOW - PRIORITY 11)

• Gap: Confirm the origin, specific model, and intended flight path of the "Gerbera" UAV fragment found in Latvia. Assess whether it was a failed operational drone or a reconnaissance asset.
• Requirement: Coordinate with Latvian authorities for forensic analysis of the drone fragment. Review flight patterns and RF launches to identify potential launch sites and operational intent.

12. Alleged Rostec Servicing of UAF Helicopters (LOW - PRIORITY 12)

• Gap: Verify the claim by Alex Parker Returns (RF IO) that Rostec-affiliated entities are servicing UAF Mi-8MT/MTB helicopters via a UAE-registered company.
• Requirement: Conduct open-source intelligence on AAL Group Ltd., cross-reference with UAF maintenance logs and procurement records (if accessible), and investigate potential illicit supply chains or RF disinformation tactics.

13. RF Leadership Personnel Change (LOW - PRIORITY 13)

• Gap: Assess the reasons behind Dmitry Kozak's release from his position as Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration, and its potential impact on RF policy towards Ukraine or internal power dynamics.
• Requirement: Monitor Russian political analysis, insider reports, and official statements for insights into Kozak's departure. Assess if this signifies a shift in policy or merely a bureaucratic change.

14. Impact of "Restaurant Contributions for SVO" (LOW - PRIORITY 14)

• Gap: Determine the genuine intent and likely impact of the proposal to introduce contributions from restaurant checks for SVO needs, and the extent of public support or opposition within Russia.
• Requirement: Monitor Russian social media, public opinion polls (if available), and state media commentary to gauge the public's reaction and the likelihood of such a measure being implemented and its effect on RF war funding and public sentiment.

15. Ukraine's "Flamingo" Missile Production (LOW - PRIORITY 15)

• Gap: Independent verification of Ukraine's current and projected "Flamingo" missile production rates (50 per month, aiming for 7 daily by year-end). Assess the type and capabilities of these missiles.
• Requirement: Conduct open-source intelligence on the company-developer and the missile type. Where possible, use SIGINT or imagery to confirm production facilities or launch activity.

16. BDA of Kyiv Drone Attack and Tactical Assessment (CRITICAL - PRIORITY 1)

• Gap: Immediate Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) of the ongoing drone attack on Kyiv. Confirm the location and nature of the drone impact in Solomianskyi district, any resulting casualties (civilian/military), and damage to infrastructure. Assess the effectiveness of UAF air defense response in terms of interception rates and damage mitigation.
• Requirement: Rapid deployment of emergency services for BDA and casualty assessment. Prioritize forensic analysis of any recovered drone debris. Conduct real-time analysis of air defense engagement data and post-strike imagery.

ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Immediate Defensive Posture Adjustments for Kupiansk-Lyman, Southern Donetsk, Pokrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia Axes:

   • Recommendation: Based on the high confidence of RF offensive pressure and potential encirclement threats in Serebryansky forestry and urban penetration in Kupiansk, and ongoing heavy fighting in Novoivanovka on the Southern Donetsk axis, continued pressure on Pokrovsk, and renewed push towards Zaporizhzhia, conduct immediate, localized force adjustments. Reinforce key defensive positions with readily available reserves, bolster fire support, and establish multiple fallback positions. Focus on counter-infiltration tactics in urban environments. Prioritize protection against precision missile strikes on tactical formations (e.g., Iskander cluster munitions). Leverage effective tactical drone operations (e.g., "Shadow" unit, 1st Assault Battalion, "STRIKS" unit, Mykolaiv marines' VARTOVI battalion, 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds") for enhanced ISR and precision interdiction of RF advances. Monitor and respond to RF psychological operations (e.g., "evacuation" leaflets in Sumy Oblast) to prevent panic and maintain civilian resilience.
   • Action: Commanders in the Kupiansk, Lyman, Southern Donetsk, Pokrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia sectors are to review current defensive plans, pre-position fire assets, and ensure clear lines of communication and withdrawal routes for threatened units. Implement enhanced anti-infiltration measures for urban defense, leveraging lessons learned and available counter-drone technologies. Prioritize aerial ISR to verify RF claims of territorial gains (e.g., Otradnoye, Serebryansky forestry, Novoivanovka, Pokrovsk, Kamyanske, Plavni). Disperse tactical formations to mitigate the impact of cluster munition strikes. Integrate FPV drone units into forward defensive and reconnaissance roles. Monitor Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's reports and respond to high combat intensity. Commanders must specifically address the threat of RF FPV drone and artillery strikes against UAF heavy artillery, as seen near Konstantinovka, and implement counter-battery measures and dispersal tactics. Maintain vigilance against RF ground activity in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and reinforce defensive lines where necessary. Implement enhanced counter-DRG measures, particularly against heavy drones like "Baba Yaga," along riverine crossings such as the Dnieper. Conduct an immediate internal assessment regarding the alleged former UAF officer commanding the Kupiansk assault to identify and mitigate any C2 vulnerabilities.

2. Nationwide CI Alert & Sweeps:

   • Recommendation: Elevate CI alert status across all military and government institutions. Initiate an immediate and systematic program of TSCM sweeps for listening devices and other forms of electronic espionage, prioritizing top-tier leadership offices and critical C2 centers. Continue aggressive prosecution of collaborators and RF agents, leveraging recent successes (e.g., Kherson "MIA RF" conviction). Address and investigate the bribery schemes within military medical commissions in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. Actively monitor for disinformation campaigns regarding internal UAF data security (e.g., e-Notariat leaks) and counter them rapidly. Investigate the claims of a former Ukrainian brigadier general commanding the Kupiansk assault as a potential CI breach. Investigate the Alex Parker Returns claim of Rostec servicing UAF helicopters as a potential new vector of hybrid warfare or a disinformation attempt.
   • Action: SBU and GUR CI elements are to coordinate a national program, sharing best practices and intelligence on RF espionage methods, and brief relevant personnel on enhanced personal security measures. Exploitation of the captured RF agent and Kharkiv spotter should be prioritized to identify broader networks. Investigate the judge from Marinka for potential collaboration. Prioritize investigation and action regarding Novinsky's alleged role as an "RPC curator in Ukraine." Ensure continued prosecution of war crimes, such as that of the FSB officer in Kherson. Implement stringent oversight and investigations into military medical commissions to root out corruption.

3. Strategic Communication Counter-Narrative for Kupiansk, Southern Donetsk, Pokrovsk & RF Atrocity Claims:

   • Recommendation: Develop and disseminate a robust, fact-based counter-narrative to RF claims of UAF "chaos and disorganization" in Kupiansk, and emphasize the successful counter-offensive in Donetsk Oblast reported by President Zelenskyy (Pokrovsk/Dobropillya area) and the success of the 1st Assault Regiment. Highlight UAF resilience, successful tactical engagements (e.g., STRIKS unit, border guard strikes, Dobropillya counter-offensive, "Shadow" unit strikes, Mykolaiv marines' VARTOVI battalion, 414th UAV Brigade "Madjar's Birds"), and controlled defensive actions, emphasizing the heavy cost to RF. Proactively counter RF narratives discrediting foreign fighters (including using HUMINT from captured individuals like the Cuban mercenary) and undermining Western unity, and immediately address exaggerated casualty ratios and Putin's inflated troop numbers. Counter Lavrov's statements by emphasizing Ukraine's commitment to sovereignty and a just peace. Immediately address the civilian casualties from the Konstantinovka airstrike. Actively promote efforts to maintain communications resilience. Actively highlight and counter RF IO efforts to spin international statements, such as Trump's comments about Putin "letting him down." Leverage the arrival of the first US PURL weapons package to demonstrate continued, tangible international support and UAF capacity. Prepare and disseminate counter-narratives against RF claims regarding "Myrotvorets" and Russian children. Immediately address and refute any RF amplification of alleged "conflict between GUR and the President's Office" to maintain internal cohesion. Promote UAF efforts in providing mental health support to service members and veterans. Counter RF IO about NATO aggression and Polish fears. Actively refute RF IO linking "terrorism" to UAF, especially concerning the "Timely Terrorist Attack" video by "Рыбарь." Immediately counter RF IO narratives (e.g., Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z) amplifying Trump's "no ceasefire" statement, reframing it as a recognition of Putin's unwillingness to negotiate, and emphasizing UAF's continued resolve. UAF STRATCOM should prepare to preemptively counter or refute RF IO narratives that may arise from the Voronezh school attack (ASTRA) or the Khimki fraud detention (TASS), framing them within the context of RF's internal repression and corruption, rather than allowing RF to project an image of stability. Immediately counter RF IO narratives (TASS) portraying the US as a warmonger due to the Gaza ceasefire veto, emphasizing the complexities of the conflict and Ukraine's alignment with international law. Develop specific counter-narratives to the inflammatory rhetoric from Alex Parker Returns (Navalny zombie meme) to delegitimize RF-aligned propaganda and maintain morale. Address Trump's statements (РБК-Україна) about the "terrible" relationship between Putin and Zelenskyy by emphasizing Ukrainian unity against external aggression and the unprovoked nature of the conflict. UAF STRATCOM should proactively counter any RF attempts to exploit Trump's comments on drones in Poland, framing them within the context of RF's aggressive actions and the necessity of NATO vigilance. Discredit RF IO (ТАСС) that criticizes international aid as "begging," emphasizing the rightful support for a sovereign nation under attack. Leverage the visible patriotic display at the Motherland Monument to reinforce national unity and resilience. Address and refute the Alex Parker Returns claim about Rostec servicing UAF helicopters, highlighting it as a clear disinformation tactic intended to sow distrust. Proactively counter RF IO regarding their challenge to the MH17 decision, emphasizing the international community's findings. UAF STRATCOM should develop narratives that highlight internal RF leadership changes (Kozak's dismissal) as potential signs of weakness or internal re-shuffling rather than strength. UAF STRATCOM should monitor and potentially leverage any internal RF dissent or criticism surrounding proposals like "restaurant contributions" to highlight potential public fatigue or economic strain. UAF STRATCOM should be prepared to counter RF IO narratives that use distracting civilian news (S7 uniforms, TikTok) to divert attention from the conflict, by re-centering focus on the ongoing war and its realities. UAF STRATCOM should prepare to counter RF's amplification of Trump's "no ceasefire" statement by emphasizing that Ukraine remains committed to defending its sovereignty and will not yield to pressure. UAF STRATCOM should also counter RF IO narratives that promote narratives of global economic crisis or Russian economic stability (e.g., Siluanov's statements, Business Insider report) by highlighting the true costs of the war on Russia's economy and the resilience of the Ukrainian economy with international support. Leverage the "Flamingo" missile production announcement to project strength and self-reliance. Immediately prepare and disseminate strong counter-narratives to the RF IO claim (Операция Z) that a former UAF officer is commanding the Kupiansk assault, framing it as a desperate attempt by RF to sow internal division and delegitimize UAF command.

4. Prioritized Offensive Actions Against RF Rail Logistics:

   • Recommendation: Intensify deep strike and sabotage operations against RF railway infrastructure supporting frontline operations, particularly in border regions and occupied territories, in response to RF targeting of Ukrainian railways.
   • Action: GUR and SSO are to prioritize targets such as railway bridges, major switching yards, locomotive depots, and repair facilities to disrupt RF's ability to sustain its forces and compensate for Ukrainian rail damage.

5. Enhanced Air Defense for Critical Railway Infrastructure & Drone Cooperation:

   • Recommendation: Reallocate mobile air defense assets to better protect critical railway junctions, depots, and energy substations that power the railway network. Immediately operationalize the drone cooperation agreement with Poland to enhance early warning and interception capabilities. Maintain high alert for UAV threats, especially over Kyiv and now immediately for Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and the Kyiv region due to renewed КАБ activity and increased drone threats from the new Bryansk launch site. Integrate Prime Minister Shmyhal's stated goal of 1000 interceptor drones daily into immediate counter-UAV strategies. LATEST: Reinforce air defense around critical infrastructure in Kyiv, given the confirmed drone impact. Prioritize mobile air defense units to cover potential impact zones within the city.
   • Action: UAF Air Force and ground forces with organic air defense assets are to coordinate to establish overlapping coverage for key railway targets, anticipating future RF strikes, and deploying new interceptor drone technology where feasible. Integrate Polish drone observation data into UAF air defense networks without delay. Integrate any air defense capabilities provided by the PURL package immediately. Prioritize the protection of civilian infrastructure in areas prone to КАБ strikes (e.g., Konstantinovka, Vozdvyzhivka, Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk) and maintain public awareness via air alerts. Ensure immediate and robust air defense response to drone attacks, as demonstrated in Pavlohrad. Special attention should be given to Kyiv's air defense posture given the increased number of Shaheds reported. LATEST: Emergency services are to conduct immediate BDA in Solomianskyi district. All air defense units are to maintain maximum readiness and coordinate targeting to mitigate further impacts in urban areas.

6. Address Internal Personnel Support and Morale:

   • Recommendation: UAF Command, working with the newly appointed Military Ombudsman, should immediately review and address the concerns regarding soldier pay, support for wounded personnel, and general welfare. Review and adjust compensation packages to remain competitive with the substantial financial incentives offered by RF. Acknowledge and promote grassroots support for the military (e.g., crowdfunding efforts for drones) to boost morale and highlight national unity. Specifically address the reported deficit of medics on the front (Военкор Котенок's video) by assessing current medical personnel strength and accelerating training or deployment of field medics.
   • Action: Implement transparent communication channels for soldiers to voice grievances, and initiate rapid reviews of compensation policies and support services to ensure fair treatment and maintain high morale, particularly among those serving on the front lines and those recovering from injuries. Actively promote the availability of mental health services for military personnel and their families.

7. Monitor North Korean Involvement:

   • Recommendation: Closely monitor any further public or intelligence reports regarding Russia's potential utilization of North Korean military or paramilitary personnel for border security or other roles.
   • Action: Direct HUMINT and SIGINT assets to collect on this potential development. Prepare contingency plans for dealing with such foreign military elements if deployed.

//END REPORT//