Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT - 181530Z SEP 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current operational picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (Confidence: HIGH)

RF forces maintain multi-axis pressure across the Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia axes, with heavy reciprocal battles in Sumy Oblast. RF claims continued fierce fighting on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, where UAF is reportedly committing new groups to stabilize. RF claims unverified advances in Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, and occupation of the medical college area in Kupiansk, with military control and fortifications on the Velikoburlukskoye direction. RF claims a 5km advance on the Gulyaipole direction, entering Novoivanivka, and new positions south of Novoivanivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF claims full control of Serebryansky forestry, representing a significant territorial gain on the Lyman direction, if verified. Drone footage shows destroyed UAF equipment near Krasnoarmeysk and Dimitrov. RF continues map-based updates detailing advances around Konstantinovka, Chasov Yar, and Kleban-Byk Reservoir. RF sources amplify Deep State's report that RF forces are threatening to encircle UAF forces in Serebryansky forestry. RF posted tactical maps detailing claimed changes in battlefield geometry over the past 24 hours around Kupiansk. RF claims UAF "complains" about RF advances in Kupiansk, with RF sources amplifying reports of "chaos and disorganization" and a "failed defense." RF footage displays dynamic combat engagements in a forest environment, explosions, and smoke. Kotsnews posts video claiming "liberation of Novonikolaevka" with Russian assault troops detailing mine clearing. Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming soldiers of the 270th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Akhmat-Caucasus" destroyed enemy positions in Malaya Tokmachka area. ТАСС posts video claiming Tornado-S MLRS crews destroyed three temporary deployment points of a UAF brigade in Konstantinovka. RF IO claims to discredit UAF actions (e.g., ambulance hit, FPV drone killing a hostage) are circulating. New RF map updates continue to indicate claimed advances on multiple axes. MoD Russia posts video claiming Ka-52m helicopter strikes on AFU manpower and armored vehicles in the Sever Group of Forces area of responsibility. TASS reports fierce clashes near Konstantinovka, DNR. Colonelcassad reports a cluster Iskander strike on a UAF company tactical group near Druzhkivka.

UAF has confirmed the liberation of Pankivka, Donetsk Oblast, and Zarichne. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Mykolayivka, Stupochky and Bila Hora on the Kramatorsk direction. Clashes were also reported near Scherbynivka, Katerynivka, Ivanopillya, Pleschiyivka, Rusyn Yar, and Poltavka on the Toretsk direction. On the Pokrovsk direction, clashes occurred near Volodymyrivka, Zapovidne, Novoekonomichne, Shevchenko, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne, Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Vilne, Chervonyi Lyman, Myrnohrad, Rodynske, Promin, Zvirove, Molodetske, Novopidhorodne, Novopavlivka, and Filiya. On the Novopavlivka direction, clashes were near Yalta, Shevchenko, Komyshuvakha, Vorone, Ternove, Novoivanivka, Filiya, Ivanivka, Iskra, Sichneve, Olhivske, and Poltavka. On the Orikhiv direction, clashes were near Kamyanske and towards Novodanylivka. UAF repelled 4 Russian army assaults on the Kherson direction and 7 Russian army assaults on the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. UAF reports eliminating a Russian breakthrough near Pokrovsk with ongoing cleanup operations. Drone footage from the 'Battle for Pokrovsk,' displays successful strikes against RF targets. UAF General Staff claims over 305,000 RF personnel neutralized since the start of the year. UAF "Pion" artillery is operating on the Donetsk direction. FPV drone footage of night combat operations by the 6th Battalion of the Azov Brigade shows thermal imagery of strikes. Kharkiv ODA Head, Oleg Synegubov, reports on shelling, attacks on populated areas, and successful counter-actions. UAF forces have flooded a gas pipe in Kupiansk, attempting to thwart RF infiltration, and deny RF claims of fighting in the city center. UAF 15th Separate Artillery Reconnaissance Brigade "Black Forest" successfully destroyed an RF Buk-M2 SAM system (video confirmed). UAF Special Operations Forces (SSO) have reportedly struck the Volgograd Oil Refinery. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts video claiming six accurate strikes by the "STRIKS" unit on the Southern Slobozhansky direction. Олександр Вілкул posts photo messages of the 77th Airmobile Brigade on the front. Оперативний ЗСУ posts drone footage showing Ukrainian forces identifying and striking a Russian artillery position and communication antenna in Kharkiv Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС highlights how the 1st Assault Regiment (1-й ОШП) "cut the pincers" of Russians near Dobropillya. President Zelenskyy met with soldiers of the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade participating in the defense of Myrnohrad and the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation, reporting 160 sq km liberated and 7 settlements freed.

Air defenses remain activated across Ukraine due to persistent RF drone and missile activity. UAF deep strikes continue against industrial and logistical targets within RF territory. RF reports widespread drone attacks across Russia. STERNENKO reports that drones attacked "Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat" in Bashkortostan, confirmed by ASTRA and Bashkortostan Governor. Народная милиция ДНР posts video claiming the destruction of a UAF D-30 howitzer. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video messages claiming RF strikes on military targets in Kyiv Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports three OMON officers in Oryol Oblast detonated a mine during demining. Colonelcassad posts video showing a large explosion and subsequent fire at night in Kyiv. НгП раZVедка posts video showing an explosion in Kyiv at night. Klichko reports a hostile UAV is flying over Kyiv, near the city center. KMVA reports no aerial targets over Kyiv. Presidential Brigade of UAF posts video showing night combat operations on the front.

Confidence: HIGH

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (Confidence: HIGH)

• Current Conditions: Generally clear and favorable for air operations across most of Ukraine. Rapidly changing weather for Kyiv tomorrow, potentially impacting operations. Cold front moving into Carpathians with temperatures dropping to -2°C. Snow is possible soon.
• Geomagnetic Storm: The strongest geomagnetic storm in 3 months (G3) continues to impact satellite communications, GPS, and other electronic systems for both sides.
• UAV/Missile Threat (OVERNIGHT & ONGOING): RF launched three S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles, one Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile, and 75 drones (over 40 of them Shaheds) overnight against Ukraine. 48 RF UAVs were shot down/suppressed. Persistent RF UAV threats affect Sumy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Odesa, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Poltava Oblasts. Zaporizhzhia experienced at least TEN strikes, killing one person and injuring 20, causing power outages. Sumy Oblast suffered two drone impacts, causing power outages and a warehouse fire. RF dropped three FAB-250 glide bombs on Kramatorsk, injuring 19. UAF Air Force warns of guided aerial bomb launches on Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Nizhyn suffered the "most massive strike from the beginning of the war" with dozens of drones, damaging critical infrastructure. Explosions confirmed in Sumy. Yampil is reported to be burning. Large fire at Kyiv logistics center liquidated after repeated morning attacks. UAF Air Force warns of several UAV groups past Derhachi, heading towards Kharkiv. RF sources report "powerful explosions in Balakliia (Kharkiv Oblast)" with videos of large smoke plumes. New RF drone group detections for Chernihiv Oblast towards Baturyn and renewed explosions in Kropyvnytskyi. Critical infrastructure hit by RF UAVs in Cherkasy Oblast. Large fire engulfing a multi-story building in Kyiv reported. КАБы on Kherson, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts. Five strong explosions in Petrovsky district of Donetsk. RF drone strike on a gas station in Poltava district, causing a fire and one casualty. UAF Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs (КАБ) on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. РБК-Україна reports Russians struck a residential area of Konstantinovka with a guided aerial bomb (КАБ), killing 5 people, confirmed by Север.Реалии and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS. Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports a UAV on Kherson Oblast heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast. STERNENKO reports a UAV threat in Kyiv. Klichko reports a hostile UAV flying over Kyiv near the city center. KMVA reports no aerial targets over Kyiv. NEW: UAF Air Force reports a UAV moving towards the northwest in Mykolaiv Oblast. NEW: UAF Air Force reports КАБ (guided aerial bomb) activity over Zaporizhzhia Oblast. NEW: KMVA reports approximately ten drones heading from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv Oblast. NEW: Serhiy Lysak (Dnipropetrovsk ODA) reports drone and КАБ strikes on Mezhevska, Pokrovska, Novopavlivska, and Malomykhailivska communities in Synelnykove district.

Confidence: HIGH

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (Confidence: HIGH)

• RF Forces:
  • Ground: Multi-axis offensives continue with claims of advances in Krasnoarmeysk-Dmitrov, "grinding down" elite UAF units on Dobropillya direction, and entering Konstantinovka city limits. RF claims offensive development at the junction of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with claims of "liberating" Olhivske and Sosnovka. "Kurier" and "Fagot" UGVs deployed. Heavy reciprocal battles in Sumy Oblast. FAB strikes continue in Kalinovsky, targeting UAF logistics. Assault on Yampil has started, utilizing civilian clothing for disguise and human shields. North Korean 107-mm Type1963 MLRS observed. RF expanding bridgehead in Volchansk. RF Naval Infantry advancing in Sumy Oblast. "Vostok" assault groups discovered foreign weapons depot in South Donetsk. RF Army actively advancing in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF detailing movements and territorial control changes in Zaporizhzhia (Stepnohirsk, Orikhiv, Tokmak). RF has taken fire control of approximately 5 km of H-26 highway near Stepova Novoselivka, leading to Kupiansk. RF continues to advance on Konstantinovka direction, with "pincers closing." Putin observed "Zapad-2025" exercises. RF claims full control of Serebryansky forestry. VDV performing parachute and armored vehicle air-dropping operations during "Zapad-2025." RF efforts to camouflage Msta-S self-propelled howitzers. Videos of "Otvazhnye" on Pokrovsk direction. Tactical map claiming RF is developing an offensive at the junction of DPR, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Compilation of drone footage from Dnipropetrovsk, Pokrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia directions. RF claims "Anwar" special forces destroyed a Swedish "S-tank" while supporting an offensive towards Sumy (highly unusual, likely IO). Multiple videos claiming the liberation of Novopetrovskoye. RF claims UAF attacks on DPR border led to increased RF strikes on enemy rear. RF claims destruction of a Paladin SAU, and successful destruction of UAF attempts to cross Dnieper. Map-based analysis of encirclement of Scherbynivka and battles in Konstantinovka. Video of a captured Russian soldier, Mikhail Stepanov, describing harsh combat conditions, coercive tactics, and low morale. Forced evacuation from 18 settlements in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. "Akhmat" SpN Regiment FPV drone reconnaissance on Sumy direction. Duma committee approved veteran status for volunteers in assault units. RF claims "Sparta" unit destroyed a UAF UAV control post. RF and UAF-affiliated sources amplify Deep State's report that RF forces are entering and consolidating in residential areas of Kupiansk. The captured RF soldier claims his unit used a gas pipe to infiltrate Kupiansk. RF military expert claims UAF created powerful underground fortifications in residential Konstantinovka. RF claims an offensive behind Chasiv Yar, with airborne forces destroying enemy defenses. Special incendiary detachment of 16th Guards NBC Protection Brigade, "Vostok" Group, using thermobaric munitions on Vremevskoye direction. MoD Russia video features Russian soldiers discussing UAV attacks, small group infiltrations by AFU, and the establishment of a buffer zone. MoD Russia claim of destroying a 3-person Ukrainian DRG attempting to infiltrate Kursk Oblast near Tetkino. Colonelcassad posts drone footage claiming to show a destroyed UAF M1A1 Abrams tank on the Sumy front (unverified). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claims "Anwar" special forces hit a rare Swedish Strv 103 tank in the Sumy border region (unverified). MoD Russia posts video showcasing RF MLRS firing rounds. Colonelcassad claims RF forces successfully crossed the Volchya River and are advancing in eastern Ivanovka. Два майора posts drone footage of an artillery strike near a military vehicle. MoD Russia posts video claiming a T-80BVM tank crew destroyed an enemy stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a message: "Family, friends, brothers and sisters, we urgently need drones🚀." Старше Эдды claims RF forces have taken control of the outskirts of Kupiansk. Операция Z amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" video claiming RF VDV are destroying UAF positions and advancing on the Sumy front. Colonelcassad posts map claiming assault groups occupied new positions south of Novoivanivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of captured Russian soldiers in Kupiansk detailing orders to kill Ukrainian men and infiltration via a gas pipe. Colonelcassad posts video of a damaged UAF Roshel Senator armored vehicle. ТАСС reports Russian sergeant Dinir Shavaleev broke into an enemy dugout alone and eliminated two Ukrainian soldiers. Два майора posts video regarding drone repair and creation for marine infantry on Sumy direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video of RF soldiers evacuating a heavy, injured soldier. MoD Russia posts video of T-72B3M tanks neutralizing UAF positions in the LPR. Colonelcassad posts new map updates detailing RF ground advances over the past 24 hours, particularly around Kupiansk. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Kotsnews post drone footage of artillery strikes by "Vostok" Group on UAF fortified positions near Gavrilovka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк claims 18 officers of the operational staff of the RF 35th Combined Arms Army were killed in a sabotage operation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (unverified by UAF, but casualty list adds credibility). «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» posts thermal and daylight drone footage from the Sumy direction showing interception of an enemy drone and strike on an "enemy antenna." Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports having collected over 11,000₽ for drones. MoD Russia posts a photo message summarizing the progress of the special military operation as of 18 September 2025. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a video showing a Russian T-72 variant tank maneuvering and firing. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video claiming RF forces eliminated a UAF platoon in Konstantinovka. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video of Solovyov proposing replacing Russian border guards with North Koreans. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of Ukrainian border guards striking three enemy vehicles and manpower in the Southern direction. Janus Putkonen posts an image with the caption "Army Corps Zapad-2025 ended and training troops are moving to real operations against Kyiv forces." Alex Parker Returns posts video about high financial incentives for contract service in Moscow (6M rubles annually, 3.1M lump sum, 260k salary, 10M debt forgiveness). MoD Russia posts video showing signal units of the Tsentr Group of Forces deploying a secured radio network between forward units and a command post in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Воин DV posts video detailing the situation on the Southern Donetsk direction, specifically mentioning fighting in Novoivanovka, and shows drone footage of artillery strikes. Рыбарь posts a tactical map overlay for "fights in the agglomeration." Операция Z amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" claiming RF Army is breaking through to Zaporizhzhia via Kamyanske and Plavni, citing Ukrainian speaker Voloshyn. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a tactical map overlay for the Kherson direction. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video quoting Putin on over 700,000 Russian military personnel on the line of contact. Воин DV posts photos of Russian tank brigade soldiers from Buryatia being awarded. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video with captured RF soldiers discussing murder charges. NEW: Colonelcassad reports a cluster Iskander strike on a UAF company tactical group near Druzhkivka.
  • Air/Naval: High concentration of strategic bombers. "West-2025" and "Rubezh 2025" exercises ongoing, involving significant naval deployments and strategic aviation. OAK handed over another batch of new Su-34 fighter-bombers. RF launched three S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles and 75 drones (over 40 of them Shaheds) overnight. UAF Air Force warns of guided aerial bomb launches on Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Tu-22M3 bombers patrolled over Barents Sea for "Zapad-2025." MoD Russia posts video of "Zapad 2025" Baltic Fleet repelling uncrewed surface vehicle attack. Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeployed. Baltic Fleet naval aviation conducted combat use of UMPK and Kh-31A anti-ship missiles. MoD Russia posts video of Iskander-M missile system electronic launches in Kaliningrad. MoD Russia and Basurin confirm successful missile launch from a submarine in Barents-Sea. Convoy of at least one military truck with two attack helicopters providing escort observed in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Bangladesh, India, Iran, Burkina Faso, Congo, and Mali participated in "Zapad-2025." Russia tested naval hypersonic weapons. "Massive use of unmanned aircraft and ground robots" as a feature of "Zapad-2025." Frigate "Admiral Golovko" conducted a Zircon hypersonic missile strike. MoD Russia posts video of "Zapad-2025" exercises showing landing craft disembarking BMPs and IL-76 transport aircraft conducting large-scale airdrops. Practical phase of "Zapad-2025" exercises concluded in Leningrad Oblast. RF strikes on railway infrastructure. UAF Air Force reports enemy tactical aviation activity in Sea of Azov, and КАБы on Kherson, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts. First regular flight from Moscow to Krasnodar since 2022. CSTO command-staff exercises "Rubezh-2025" began in Kyrgyzstan. Reports RF troops leaving Belarusian training grounds. Video showcasing a Russian naval parade. US Commerce Department denied "Belavia" permission to operate Boeing flights to Russia. UAF Air Force reports new launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aviation on the border of Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. UAF Air Force warns of a high-speed target heading towards Kharkiv. MoD Russia posts video of Il-38 anti-submarine aircraft conducting practical bombing of ground targets. UAF Air Force reports attack UAVs in Synelnykove, Novgorod-Siversky districts, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk Oblasts, and heading towards Kryvyi Rih district. An RF drone strike on a gas station in Poltava district. Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs (КАБ) on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photos of RF Su-25s flying low. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Zaliznychne, Rizdvyanka, Kamyanske, Hryhorivka, Veselyanka of Zaporizhzhia region, Antonivka, Inhulets of Kherson region, citing UAF General Staff. MoD Russia posts video compilation "Rubikon in action." Полиция Хабаровского края posts video of RF Minister of Internal Affairs Kolokoltsev visiting a police armaments exhibition in China. ТАСС reports Lavrov is planning to meet with UN Secretary-General Guterres. MoD Russia posts video showing Army Aviation Ka-52m helicopter hitting AFU manpower and armored vehicles in the Sever Group of Forces responsibility. STERNENKO reports a UAV threat in Kyiv. Klichko reports a hostile UAV is flying over Kyiv, near the city center. KMVA reports no aerial targets over Kyiv.
  • UAV/EW: Persistent FPV drone operations, reconnaissance UAV activity. Claims of destroying 80 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. "Molniya-2" UAVs adapted with fiber optics. Mass Shahed launches from three locations. Claims destruction of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone via FPV drone. Russia has managed to create a "drone production empire". RF air defense claims 87 RF UAVs were shot down overnight. UAF Air Force warns of multiple groups of RF UAVs approaching Kharkiv via Vilcha, Vovchansk, and Slatyne. Video claiming 218th Guards Tank Regiment air defense battery clearing skies of enemy drones. "Zephyr-M" UAV. UAF Air Force reports several UAV groups past Derhachi, heading towards Kharkiv. Russian drone invaded Lithuania was launched from Belarus. UAF Air Force reports a group of UAVs (mopeds) heading towards Nizhyn, Chernihiv Oblast. "Drone safety" in Saratov, Tambov, Voronezh, Rostov, and Volgograd Oblasts. A fire at Morozovsk airfield in Rostov Oblast. UAF Air Force reports new groups of RF attack UAVs (mopeds) detected over Kherson Oblast, heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast. MoD Russia posts new video showcasing diverse drone activity. UAF Air Force reports UAVs in Poltava suburbs and multiple groups of UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast heading towards Kamianske. UAF Air Force reports new groups of RF attack UAVs (mopeds) moving through Okhtyrka district, Sumy Oblast, towards Poltava Oblast. New drone danger warning for Bryansk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a new RF UAV (moped) heading towards Myrhorod in Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a UAV in Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Baturyn. "Ostatok po mopedam" update. Video of the "Torn-MDM" complex being used during "Zapad-2025" exercises. RF anti-icing technology for UAVs for extreme cold. Plans for anti-drone protected security zones in Russian border areas. UAF General Staff states RF has used over 2000 drones. RF FPV drone strike on a minibus in Vasylivsky district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF air defense destroyed 8 enemy UAVs overnight. Enemy reconnaissance UAV in Zaporizhzhia. Enemy attack UAV in Kramatorsk. Video of a UAF soldier picking up an RF fiber-optic FPV drone "KVN", which then detonates. UAF Air Force, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-УкраїНА all report 136 RF UAVs shot down/suppressed out of 172 launched, including over 100 Shaheds. Video with an Orlan-30 drone operator discussing its EW resistance. Bakonov states an analog of Starlink will soon appear in Russia. Claims Russian "Geraniums" (Shaheds) hit two substations overnight. Video of "Akhmat" SpN Regiment FPV drone reconnaissance on Sumy direction. Roscosmos CEO reported Russia will soon have its own satellite communication terminal. UAF Air Force warns of a high-speed target heading towards Kharkiv. Kotsnews claims "Rubikon" fighters shot down 1000 enemy drones. UAF Air Force reports attack UAVs in Synelnykove, Novgorod-Siversky districts, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk Oblasts, and heading towards Kryvyi Rih district. Colonelcassad reports the development of a polyamide net capable of neutralizing 50-100% of the kinetic energy of loitering munitions. Kotsnews reports AI is being implemented in the process of updating the Ruviki encyclopedia at Kazan Digital Week 2025. NEW: UAF Air Force reports a UAV moving towards the northwest in Mykolaiv Oblast. NEW: KMVA reports approximately ten drones heading from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv Oblast.
  • Air Defense: Photos of a Pantsir-S1/S2 air defense system. RF air defense destroyed 10 enemy UAVs over Bryansk Oblast overnight. MoD Russia posts video of MiG-31bm fighter jets protecting long-range aircraft. PPO is working on drones in Kyiv Oblast and in Kyiv. Temporary flight restrictions at Volgograd, Kaluga, and Saratov airports. RF air defense intercepted and destroyed UAVs in five districts of Rostov Oblast. RF air defense destroyed 8 enemy UAVs overnight. UAF Air Force, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-УкраїНА all report 136 RF UAVs shot down/suppressed out of 172 launched. UAF Air Force reports the threat for Kharkiv has been lifted. RF MoD claims 6 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Belgorod Oblast. 7 RF UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in the evening. ТАСС reports PVO forces shot down six Ukrainian UAVs over Kursk, Belgorod, and Rostov Oblasts. The air raid alarm in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted. ASTRA reports temporary flight restrictions at Samara airport. KMVA reports no aerial targets over Kyiv.
• UAF Forces:
  • Defensive: Actively defending across all major axes, repelling numerous RF assaults (11 in Kursk/Sumy directions, 2 in Kherson). President Zelenskyy met with soldiers of the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade, highlighting their participation in the defense of Myrnohrad. Klichko reports a hostile UAV is flying over Kyiv, near the city center. Presidential Brigade of UAF posts video showing night combat operations on the front, emphasizing vigilance.
  • Localized Counter-Offensives: Confirmed liberation of Pankivka, Donetsk Oblast, and Zarichne. UAF reports eliminating a Russian breakthrough near Pokrovsk with ongoing cleanup operations. The "STRIKS" unit's successful strikes on the Southern Slobozhansky direction and border guard strikes on RF vehicles demonstrate tactical offensive readiness. President Zelenskyy's visit to Donetsk Oblast, where he discussed liberated territories and met with soldiers of the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation, confirms active UAF offensive operations, including 160 sq km liberated and 7 settlements freed. The 1st Assault Regiment successfully repelled an RF "pincer" maneuver near Dobropillya.
  • High Readiness in Key Sectors: Sustained commitment of forces in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction and efforts to hold Kupiansk demonstrate readiness. Visual confirmation of the 77th Airmobile Brigade's presence.
  • Tactical Drone Integration: Extensive use of FPV and thermal-imaging drones for night operations and precision strikes (Azov Brigade, "Shadow" unit), including new 10-inch FPV drones from volunteer efforts. New cooperation agreement with Poland on drones, and joint operational group on UAVs. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of the 1st Assault Battalion using FPV drones against RF checkpoints and transport. President Zelenskyy's discussions with commanders of the 82nd Air Assault Brigade explicitly included drone systems.
  • Personnel Mobilization: DPSU is transferring data on men attempting to illegally cross the border to TCCs. The new Law on the Military Ombudsman indicates a focus on personnel welfare. Training activities by the Zaporizhzhia Center for National Resistance.
  • Morale: Exhibitions for Tank Troops Day and commemoration of rescuers. Positive messaging about the 77th Airmobile Brigade. Discussions with families of POW/MIA personnel. Opening of a memorial alley in Zaporizhzhia. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts photos reinforcing soldier camaraderie. President Zelenskyy has visited a command post of the Air Assault Forces (DSHV) in Donetsk Oblast, discussing active defense, training, manning, and drone systems. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (Kharkiv ODA Head) posts photo messages about stable mobile communication and internet being guaranteed even under enemy shelling. КМВА (Kyiv City Military Administration) calls on businesses to join in building an accessible environment, indicating civilian recovery and support efforts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of captured Russian soldiers, including one who claims to have been captured just two weeks after signing a contract. NEW: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts photo messages of President Zelenskyy awarding soldiers participating in the Dobropillya counter-offensive.
  • Internal Security: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video with captured RF soldiers discussing murder charges.
  • External Support: NEW: NATO confirms the first US weapons delivery under PURL (Presidential Ukraine Reconnaissance and Logistics) has arrived in Ukraine, with more expected soon. РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS corroborate this.

Confidence: HIGH

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (Confidence: HIGH)

Capabilities:

• Persistent Multi-axis Ground Offensives: RF maintains the capability to conduct sustained offensives across numerous axes (Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy), with new claims of "liberating Novonikolaevka," "Malaya Tokmachka," and Otradnoye (Kharkiv Oblast). Claims of 5km advances and urban penetration in Kupiansk indicate continued, albeit often slow, ground pressure. New RF claims of precision strikes by Tornado-S MLRS crews in Konstantinovka, allegedly eliminating a UAF platoon. Colonelcassad's map updates indicate continued claimed offensive operations in Dnipropetrovsk and Eastern Zaporizhzhia. High financial incentives for contract soldiers (6M rubles annually) indicate RF's capability to sustain recruitment. Рыбарь's tactical map for "fights in the agglomeration" (Pokrovsk direction) confirms continued capability for intense urban/semi-urban combat. RF Army is breaking through to Zaporizhzhia via Kamyanske and Plavni according to RF IO citing a UAF speaker, suggesting perceived or actual ground advances in the south. MoD Russia posts video claiming Ka-52m helicopter strikes on AFU manpower and armored vehicles, confirming continued RF Army Aviation support for ground operations. Putin's statement of over 700,000 personnel on the line of contact, while likely inflated, represents a projection of significant manpower capability (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники). NEW: Colonelcassad reports a cluster Iskander strike on a UAF company tactical group near Druzhkivka, demonstrating precision strike capability against tactical concentrations.
• Large-Scale Aerial Strike Capacity: Demonstrated capability to launch high-volume drone and missile attacks (75 UAVs, 4 missiles overnight), systematically targeting critical infrastructure and military objects in Kyiv Oblast. Confirmed continued "night arrival" strikes near Kyiv. The fatal КАБ strike on Konstantinovka residential area demonstrates continued capability for devastating aerial attacks on civilian targets. Putin's statement on high combat aviation development reinforces this. NEW: Recent КАБ activity in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts confirms persistent use of guided aerial bombs.
• Advanced Robotics and UAV Integration: Continued integration of UGVs ("Kurier", "Fagot") and diverse UAVs (FPV, reconnaissance, 'Baba Yaga' equivalents) for ISR, strike, and ground support. "Zapad-2025" showcased robotic systems. Fiber-optic FPV drones (KVN) are being deployed. RF is also observing new large Chinese drones for potential acquisition and showcasing advanced police robots and drones during visits to China, indicating potential dual-use technology transfer. The "Akhmat" special forces are conducting counter-drone and ISR operations on the Sumy axis. Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition's drone footage from Kupiansk confirms persistent drone ISR. RF's development in AI for civilian applications (Ruviki encyclopedia) indicates broader technological capabilities that could be adapted for military use.
• EW and Air Defense: Active EW capabilities (Torn-MDM complex) and layered air defense (Pantsir-S1/S2, reported destruction of UAF drones) for both offensive and defensive operations. Active counter-drone operations on Sumy direction.
• Deep Reconnaissance and Special Operations: "Akhmat" SpN Regiment FPV drone reconnaissance on the Sumy direction and "exclusive footage of our guys' work in the enemy's rear" suggest active deep reconnaissance and special operations. The claimed "Anwar" special forces strikes on UAF bases near the border indicate continued cross-border deep operations.
• Information Warfare (IO): Sophisticated capability to amplify narratives, including leveraging Ukrainian military blogger concerns to demoralize UAF and sow disorganization (Kupiansk narrative), and promoting internal security successes. RF is actively discrediting foreign fighters by linking them to organized crime. The new claims of UAF hitting an ambulance and deliberately killing a civilian with an FPV drone are highly inflammatory IO. The video on historical precedents of punishing Nazism reinforces RF's war justification. Propaganda targeting Europe and the US aims to undermine Western unity. The satirical BBC headline targeting Macron is another example of RF IO. The proposal to create a state concept for "constructing the image of Russia's enemy" indicates a strategic, long-term approach to information warfare. Lavrov's statements on Russia's readiness for compromise (with security interests) and the EU's desire to prolong the conflict are part of this IO. Zakharova's statements and Putin's comments on Stalingrad and economic stability are also part of this. Putin's claims of 700,000 personnel on the line of combat are a significant IO effort to project scale. Colonelcassad amplifies explanation from "Saperavi" restaurant on "Russophobic video," indicating RF's continued active monitoring and response to internal dissent and narratives. TASS reports Baza editor-in-chief Trifonov admitted guilt, confirming continued internal security operations targeting media perceived as hostile. Trump's "Putin let me down" comments are also being amplified by RF IO (Операция Z, Оперативний ЗСУ). Putin's statements about inflation are part of his overall IO narrative of economic control. NEW: TASS reports Trump's assertion that falling oil prices could end the conflict, an IO narrative potentially aimed at externalizing blame or shaping Western policy discussions. NEW: "Два майора" posts historical nationalist IO. NEW: "Ахмат" SpN channel posts highly nationalistic and aggressive IO from General-Lieutenant Apty Alaudinov. NEW: TASS claims three Russian children were added to the "Myrotvorets" database, a narrative designed to demonize Ukraine.
• Command and Control (C2) Enhancement: RF Signal units are actively deploying secured radio networks in offensive directions (e.g., Krasnoarmeysk) to ensure uninterrupted command and control. The extension of General Gerasimov's service suggests continuity and stability at the highest military command level. Putin's meeting with leaders of parliamentary factions discussing inflation indicates continued high-level economic and political governance, crucial for sustaining the war effort. NEW: MoD Russia meeting with Nigerian Chief of Defence Staff indicates ongoing efforts to build international military partnerships and influence.

Intentions:

• Territorial Seizure and Consolidation: Clear intent to gain and hold territory, particularly in key strategic sectors like Serebryansky forestry and Kupiansk, aiming for local encirclements and urban control, as well as localized advances in Novonikolaevka, Malaya Tokmachka, Otradnoye, and in Dnipropetrovsk/Eastern Zaporizhzhia. Continued claims of advances in Dnipropetropvsk and Eastern Zaporizhzhia show this intent on multiple axes. The claim of breaking through to Zaporizhzhia via Kamyanske and Plavni indicates a significant southward territorial intent.
• Degrade Ukrainian Logistics and Energy: Systematic targeting of railway infrastructure and energy nodes indicates an intent to cripple Ukraine's logistical and economic resilience, especially ahead of winter.
• Undermine Ukrainian C2 and Morale: Active intelligence operations (Lviv wiretap, SBU detention of RF agent, Kharkiv spotter detention) and information campaigns (Kupiansk "chaos", ambulance/civilian death narratives, "military ombudsman" framing, targeting European/US relations) are intended to disrupt UAF command structures and diminish morale. Discrediting foreign fighters is part of this effort. The harsh sentencing in occupied Zaporizhzhia for supporting UAF also aims to terrorize and suppress dissent in occupied territories.
• Project Military Strength and Regional Influence: Large-scale exercises like "Zapad-2025" and "Rubezh-2025" (with international participation) are designed to project RF military power and influence globally and regionally. Continued S-400 sales to Turkey reinforce this. High-level visits to China to discuss security cooperation and showcase technology also contribute to this. Discussions about replacing Russian border guards with North Koreans could indicate a strategic partnership in this domain. The claim of Zapad-2025 troops moving to "real operations against Kyiv forces" suggests intent to project a direct threat to Kyiv. NEW: MoD Russia meeting with Nigerian Chief of Defence Staff shows intent to build new military partnerships in Africa.
• Repress Internal Dissent: Harsh sentencing for expressing views on Bucha and for VKontakte audio recordings, and the new fine for wishing death to Russian soldiers, indicates RF's intent to maintain tight control over information and suppress internal opposition, with proposals for internet shutdowns further emphasizing this. The use of a "contract for war" as an alternative to criminal punishment (e.g., for rape) highlights a disturbing recruitment method. The detention of the Baza producer and the amplification of the "kolkhoz woman" narrative further underscore this intent. Putin's focus on enforcing migration policy also highlights intent for social control. Colonelcassad reporting on a "Russophobic video" from a Moscow restaurant and TASS reporting on Baza editor-in-chief's admission of guilt indicate a sustained intent to control information and suppress dissent within Russia. Putin's statements on migration policy (Военкор Котенок) indicate an intent to strengthen internal security and social control. Putin's support for selling "beautiful" car numbers on Gosuslugi aims to project a sense of order and civil society functionality despite wartime conditions (Новости Москвы). The video from БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС featuring Putin alongside individuals with "Z" symbols discussing potentially controversial policies (likely referring to pardoned criminals serving in the military) indicates RF's intent to normalize such practices and control the narrative around them. NEW: TASS reports a 14.5-year sentence for a former bodyguard, indicating continued internal law enforcement and punishment. NEW: TASS reports on AI-generated photos impacting passport issuance, indicating an intent to control information and identity internally.
• International Diplomatic Offensive: Lavrov's planned meeting with Guterres, combined with his public statements, indicates an intent to push Russia's narrative on the international stage and seek diplomatic leverage. Starmer's comments about discussing with Trump how to "make Putin agree to peace" (РБК-Україна, ASTRA) suggest that RF diplomacy is a key part of international political discourse. Trump's statement that "Putin let me down" regarding Ukraine (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, Операция Z) is being carefully amplified by RF IO to highlight perceived Western confusion or disagreements, but also potentially reflects a miscalculation by Putin. NEW: TASS amplifying Trump's claims about oil prices ending the conflict is a clear attempt to shape international discourse and pressure Western nations regarding energy policy. NEW: Colonelcassad highlights a Saudi-Pakistan mutual defense pact, likely intending to show a shifting global alignment away from Western influence. NEW: TASS reports on protests in Paris against austerity, likely intending to highlight Western internal disunity and instability.

Courses of Action (COAs):

• COA 1 (Likely - Ground Offensive): Intensify ground assaults on the Lyman axis to achieve a decisive encirclement in Serebryansky forestry, simultaneously reinforcing urban infiltration tactics in Kupiansk to collapse defenses. Localized pushes, such as on Novonikolaevka, Malaya Tokmachka, Otradnoye, and in Dnipropetrovsk/Eastern Zaporizhzhia, will continue to apply pressure, with a sustained focus on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, including urban/semi-urban combat, and renewed pushes towards Zaporizhzhia (Kamyanske, Plavni). Precision MLRS strikes will continue on UAF positions. RF forces from "Zapad-2025" may be redeployed to active combat zones, potentially including the Kyiv axis, as implied by Janus Putkonen. Aggressive recruitment with high financial incentives will be sustained to back these operations. RF will also continue to enhance C2 networks in key offensive areas (e.g., Krasnoarmeysk direction). Putin's statements on over 700k personnel on the line of contact, though possibly inflated, suggest a high readiness to commit manpower. RF Army Aviation (Ka-52m) will continue to provide direct fire support to ground operations in relevant sectors (MoD Russia). RF will continue to use controversial recruitment methods (e.g., pardoned criminals) to sustain manpower for these offensives (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС). NEW: Cluster Iskander strikes against UAF company tactical groups (Druzhkivka) indicate an ongoing intent to target UAF troop concentrations.
• COA 2 (Likely - Aerial Campaign): Continue high-volume drone and missile attacks, maintaining focus on critical railway junctions, energy substations, and logistics hubs nationwide, with potential for renewed strikes on urban centers and identified military targets in Kyiv Oblast. Precision artillery strikes on identified UAF positions (e.g., Konstantinovka) will continue. The lethal КАБ strike on Konstantinovka residential area indicates a continued willingness to use high-yield guided munitions on populated areas. RF tactical aviation will remain active on the eastern direction, posing a threat to Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. A UAV threat has been reported in Kyiv (STERNENKO, Klichko), which indicates ongoing intent to target the capital. NEW: Persistent КАБ activity in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts confirms this as an ongoing COA. A new group of drones heading from Chernihiv to Kyiv Oblast confirms renewed targeting of the capital region.
• COA 3 (Possible - Hybrid Escalation): Conduct further covert intelligence operations and sophisticated disinformation campaigns to exploit perceived weaknesses in Ukrainian C2 and internal cohesion, potentially linking to real or fabricated security incidents, and further intensifying repression of internal dissent. This will likely include discrediting foreign military assistance and personnel, and promoting narratives of UAF war crimes (e.g., attacking ambulances, killing civilians with FPV drones), and efforts to weaken international support for Ukraine. RF will also use non-military events (e.g., wrestling tournaments, housing construction reports) and discussions on a state concept for "constructing the image of Russia's enemy" to project internal normalcy and external influence. Lavrov's statements signal a continued diplomatic offensive to frame RF as seeking peace under its own terms, while blaming the West for prolonging the conflict. RF will further integrate SMO veterans into political life. Increased focus on domestic security concerns (e.g., the St. Petersburg hospital incident, advice on scammers, migration policy enforcement) could be amplified to divert attention from the conflict. RF will continue to use legal and security mechanisms to suppress internal dissent and control information, as seen with the Baza editor-in-chief's admission of guilt. RF will actively monitor and attempt to counter or spin Western diplomatic developments, particularly Trump's critical statements regarding Putin (РБК-Україна, Операция Z). Putin's statements about inflation during parliamentary meetings will also serve to project economic control and stability. NEW: RF will intensify IO about US foreign policy (e.g., Afghanistan) to highlight perceived Western failures and divisions. NEW: RF will use highly nationalistic and aggressive IO (Alaudinov) to rally internal support. NEW: RF will continue to use narratives about Ukrainian "extremist sites" (e.g., "Myrotvorets") to demonize Ukraine.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations (Confidence: HIGH)

• RF:
  • Urban Infiltration Tactics: Use of gas pipes for infiltration in Kupiansk's urban quarters indicates adaptation to dense urban environments.
  • Disguise and Human Shields: Employment of civilian clothing for DRGs and use of human shields in Yampil (Lyman axis) demonstrates a willingness to disregard laws of armed conflict for tactical gain.
  • Increased Integration of UGVs: Showcasing UGVs (Zefir-M, Atlas-M) in exercises and combat suggests a growing role for unmanned ground systems. RF is also monitoring foreign drone developments and showcasing advanced police robots and drones in China, indicating potential dual-use technology transfer.
  • Adaptive Concealment: Camouflage of Msta-S howitzers to evade UAF drones indicates adaptation to UAF ISR capabilities.
  • High-Volume Drone Launch Locations: Mass Shahed launches from multiple locations complicate UAF air defense response.
  • Focus on Railway Infrastructure: The systematic targeting of railway substations across Ukraine highlights a refined targeting strategy against UAF logistics.
  • Unit-Level Crowdfunding for Drones: Individual RF ground units are actively soliciting public donations for drones, indicating a decentralized, adaptive approach to resourcing tactical UAVs.
  • Internal Security Demining: Use of OMON officers for demining railway tracks in border regions, highlighting an unconventional role for internal security forces in operational areas, potentially due to shortage of dedicated EOD.
  • Exploitation of Criminals for Military Service: Offering contracts for war as an alternative to criminal punishment (e.g., for rape) indicates a desperate adaptation to personnel shortages. This is further corroborated by the video from БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, showing captured RF soldiers discussing murder charges, indicating these individuals may be ex-criminals.
  • Consideration of Foreign Personnel for Border Guarding: Solovyov's proposal to use North Korean personnel on Russian borders suggests a strategic adaptation to personnel management or a new avenue of foreign military cooperation.
  • Strategic IO Development: Proposal from RF Ministry of Defense "politruks" to create a state concept for "constructing the image of Russia's enemy" indicates a more formalized and long-term approach to information warfare.
  • Aggressive Recruitment Incentives: Offering substantial financial packages, including debt forgiveness, to attract contract soldiers from Moscow (6M rubles annually, 3.1M lump sum) indicates an adaptation to overcome personnel shortages.
  • AI Integration: Implementation of AI in the Ruviki encyclopedia indicates a broader push towards technological integration that could have dual-use applications in information warfare or military intelligence.
  • Enhanced C2 Networks: Deployment of secured radio networks by signal units in offensive directions (e.g., Krasnoarmeysk) to ensure uninterrupted command and control reflects adaptation to battlefield communications challenges.
  • Leadership Continuity: Extension of General Gerasimov's service by five years demonstrates an adaptation to maintain experienced command at the highest levels of the military during ongoing conflict (Colonelcassad).
  • Economic Messaging: Putin discussing inflation with parliamentary leaders (TASS) indicates an adaptive approach to economic messaging during wartime, aiming to project stability.
  • Precision Targeting of UAF Tactical Groups: The use of cluster Iskander missiles against a UAF company tactical group (Druzhkivka) demonstrates a refined targeting adaptation to strike concentrated UAF forces.
• UAF:
  • Counter-Infiltration Measures: Flooding gas pipes in Kupiansk to counter RF infiltration.
  • Persistent Counter-Battery and Deep Strikes: Successful destruction of RF Buk-M2 SAM system and oil refinery strikes (Salavat) demonstrate continued effectiveness of UAF long-range precision and counter-battery fire.
  • Enhanced Counter-UAV Capabilities: Deployment of "STING" interceptor drones and continued success in downing a large percentage of RF UAVs demonstrates adaptive air defense. New agreement to share drone observation systems with Poland, and a new agreement with Poland to create a joint operational group for UAVs.
  • Human Intelligence Exploitation: Immediate dissemination of HUMINT from captured RF soldiers to highlight RF morale issues and coercive tactics. This now includes specific lists of alleged RF casualties from the 35th Combined Arms Army. The captured soldier from 9th Brigade further supports this. The video from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS showing a captured RF soldier after only two weeks of service provides fresh HUMINT.
  • Public Fundraising for Drones: Continued significant public donations for FPV and interceptor drones demonstrate strong civilian support and rapid procurement for tactical adaptations.
  • Increased Use of Advanced ISR Drones: Deployment of German Vector drones by the 47th Mechanized Brigade indicates enhanced battlefield awareness.
  • Diplomatic Engagement for Security: Ratification of security cooperation agreement with Greece. New drone cooperation agreement with Poland, including the creation of a joint operational group. New military aid from Ireland.
  • Personnel Welfare Focus: Coordination meetings with families of POW/MIA personnel and the signing of the "Law on the Military Ombudsman" indicate continued focus on morale and welfare. The Coordination Headquarters continues to provide support.
  • Humanitarian Aid Control: New wartime law to control humanitarian transport, indicating efforts to regulate and secure aid flows.
  • Counter-Intelligence Successes: SBU detention of an RF agent in Ukraine, and investigation into collaborators, including the recent detention of an RF attacks spotter in Kharkiv Oblast, and the detention of Novinsky (RPC curator). Successful prosecution of an FSB officer for war crimes.
  • Demining: Over 280 hectares of Kharkiv Oblast demined in a week.
  • Individual Gear Sourcing: Continual adaptation by individual soldiers to source tactical gear (pouches, tourniquets) to supplement standard issue, possibly indicating ongoing logistical shortfalls.
  • Artillery Adaptability: UAF artillery units demonstrate continuous operations in all weather and effective camouflage, highlighting adaptive tactical use of artillery.
  • Communications Resilience: Kharkov ODA Head's statement on guaranteeing mobile communication and internet under shelling demonstrates efforts to maintain C2 and civilian connectivity.
  • Leadership Engagement: President Zelenskyy's meeting with 79th Air Assault Brigade and DSHV commanders, and discussions on training, manning, and drone systems, directly highlights adaptive leadership and a focus on critical battlefield technologies.
  • Civilian Support for Recovery: КМВА's call for business involvement in building an accessible environment indicates adaptive civilian support for wartime efforts and long-term recovery.
  • Expedited Foreign Military Aid Integration: The rapid arrival of the first US PURL weapons package in Ukraine demonstrates an adaptive and streamlined process for integrating foreign military aid.

Confidence: HIGH

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• RF:
  • Challenges: Video of RF soldiers soliciting donations for medical supplies and for drones suggests localized logistical challenges or a supplementary funding mechanism for tactical assets. Continued RF targeting of Ukrainian railway infrastructure implies a strategic priority, possibly reflecting their own challenges or a desire to prevent UAF from leveraging rail for sustainment. The reported OMON casualties during demining operations on railway tracks in Oryol Oblast highlight a potentially growing resource strain in securing logistics in border regions. Increased efforts to control gold exports suggest economic pressures. ARHANHEL SPETSNZ posts about a "Marathon of Hundreds" related to damaged electronic equipment, likely for drone parts or similar, indicating continued internal efforts to support supply chains. Solovyov's suggestion to use North Koreans on the border may imply manpower issues for sustained border defense. Mandatory labeling of sports nutrition could indicate attempts to regulate or control this segment of the economy, potentially affecting military supplies if civilian channels are used. ExxonMobil's withdrawal from Russia signals continued economic pressure. The St. Petersburg hospital incident with a drunk serviceman highlights internal challenges impacting welfare and order.
  • Resilience: The ability to conduct massive aerial attacks (172 UAVs) and multi-axis ground operations, alongside large-scale exercises ("Zapad-2025"), indicates a robust, albeit stressed, logistical and sustainment network capable of supporting high-intensity operations. North Korean MLRS observed, confirming external military aid. Russia is managing regional debts to maintain internal financial stability. RF also seeking technology (e.g., advanced police robotics/drones) from China, indicating potential future logistical/technological support. Reports of EU importing goods from Russia despite sanctions suggest some economic resilience. High financial incentives for contract soldiers (6M rubles annually, 3.1M lump sum, 260k salary, 10M debt forgiveness) demonstrate a significant resource allocation to personnel sustainment. Investment in AI development for civilian purposes could indirectly support military capabilities. Putin's emphasis on macro-economic stability signals a strategic focus on sustaining the war effort through economic means. Putin's claim of 700k personnel on the line of combat, while inflated, points to a large personnel reserve. Putin's discussion on inflation (ТАСС) highlights ongoing efforts to manage the national economy under wartime conditions. The awarding of soldiers from a tank brigade in Buryatia (Воин DV) suggests ongoing recognition and support for military personnel. NEW: Басурин о главном posts commercial for "reliable cars," subtly implying a functional civilian economy supporting the war effort.
• UAF:
  • Challenges: RF strikes on railway infrastructure are a direct threat to UAF logistical lines, causing train delays and requiring repair efforts. A UAF soldier's video appeal about insufficient pay and lack of support after injury indicates potential morale and sustainment issues impacting individual service members. The captured RF soldier's testimony about UAF officers taking money and abusing subordinates also highlights internal issues impacting morale and efficiency, if true. The video from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS showing a captured RF soldier who signed a contract for a 4 million ruble bonus highlights the significant financial incentives RF offers, which Ukraine must match to sustain its forces.
  • Resilience: Continuous public support for drone procurement (250+ FPV drones, 20 Shahed interceptors daily, new 10-inch FPV drones) and the ability to conduct deep strikes (Salavat refinery) indicate a resilient, decentralized, and internationally supported sustainment model. Humanitarian aid and military-civilian coordination (Kyiv memorandums) indicate ongoing efforts to maintain civilian infrastructure support. The new security agreement with Greece and drone cooperation agreement with Poland could bolster future logistical support. New military aid from Ireland. The new law controlling humanitarian transport aims to improve efficiency and security. Kharkov Oblast demining efforts support long-term economic and logistical recovery. UAF artillery maintaining tempo in all weather conditions indicates a robust logistical chain for ammunition and maintenance. Efforts by the Coordination Headquarters to support families of missing/captured servicemen also contributes to long-term personnel sustainment. UAF efforts to maintain mobile communication and internet under shelling are crucial for C2 and logistics. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition promoting pre-orders for transport bags on wheels indicates continued efforts to support soldiers' personal logistics, possibly to address equipment shortfalls or improve field mobility. NEW: The arrival of the first US PURL weapons package indicates a streamlined and responsive international supply chain. The Dnipropetrovsk ODA Head visiting an emergency medical services championship highlights efforts to sustain medical support infrastructure for both military and civilian needs.

Confidence: MEDIUM

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• RF:
  • Centralized Planning: The synchronized large-scale aerial attacks and multi-axis ground offensives point to centralized command and control. "Zapad-2025" exercises demonstrating joint headquarters work (Mulino) reinforce this. The proposed state concept for "constructing the image of Russia's enemy" further indicates a centralized approach to strategic information control. Lavrov's statements on preconditions for compromise and blame for EU's actions reflect a coordinated diplomatic and IO strategy. The deployment of secured radio networks in Krasnoarmeysk direction to ensure uninterrupted C2 during offensives demonstrates an active effort to maintain and improve C2 effectiveness at the operational level. Putin's active engagement with military leaders and focus on macro-economic stability highlights centralized strategic control. The extension of General Gerasimov's service reinforces stability at the top (Colonelcassad). Putin's meeting with leaders of parliamentary factions, discussing economic policy, reinforces the image of centralized governance and command, crucial for wartime decision-making. NEW: MoD Russia meeting with Nigerian Chief of Defence Staff indicates a coordinated foreign policy and military strategy.
  • Decentralized Tactical Adaptations: The adoption of urban infiltration tactics (gas pipes in Kupiansk) and adaptive concealment (Msta-S) at lower echelons suggests a degree of tactical autonomy within the overall command structure.
  • Concerns: Reports of "chaos and disorganization" in Kupiansk (amplified by RF IO) could be an indication of local UAF C2 disruption, but this is an RF narrative. Resignation of Deputy Head of Presidential Administration Dmitry Kozak, while domestic, could impact high-level political coordination. The captured soldier's testimony about "complete incompetence of commanders" and arbitrary orders, if indicative of broader issues, could suggest localized C2 problems. The video from БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС featuring captured RF soldiers discussing murder charges, if representing widespread issues of criminal elements in the military, could indicate significant C2 challenges related to discipline and adherence to military law.
• UAF:
  • Resilience under Pressure: UAF General Staff provides consistent operational updates and effectively repels numerous RF assaults, demonstrating a functional and resilient C2 structure. The immediate denial of RF claims in Kupiansk by OSK "Dnipro" spokesperson suggests proactive C2 communications. President Zelenskyy signing the Military Ombudsman law and drone cooperation with Poland, and his visit to Donetsk Oblast, demonstrates continued top-level leadership and strategic planning, including direct engagement with frontline units and discussions on drone systems. The ongoing counter-offensive in Donetsk Oblast, reported by Zelenskyy, further highlights effective C2 in complex operations. The Kharkov ODA Head's focus on communications resilience reinforces this. President Zelenskyy's visit to the 82nd Air Assault Brigade command post confirms direct engagement with frontline C2. The 1st Assault Regiment's success in "cutting the pincers" near Dobropillya indicates effective tactical C2. President Zelenskyy's meeting with 79th Air Assault Brigade soldiers indicates direct engagement with frontline unit C2 and a focus on operational effectiveness. KMVA reports no aerial targets over Kyiv, indicating effective monitoring and control in the capital. NEW: The Presidential Brigade of UAF posting night combat video with a message about vigilance highlights unit-level C2 and operational awareness. Dnipropetrovsk ODA's focus on emergency medical services preparedness contributes to broader civilian resilience and medical C2. NEW: The announcement of the first US PURL weapons delivery to Ukraine, through NATO, demonstrates effective international logistical and strategic C2.
  • Internal Threats: The discovery of a listening device in the Lviv Mayor's office and the SBU detention of an RF agent and Kharkiv spotter and Novinsky's detention represent significant and active threats to C2 security, indicating RF attempts at deep penetration. This highlights a critical vulnerability that could be exploited. Investigations into collaborators further reinforce this internal threat. The prosecution of the FSB officer for war crimes demonstrates a commitment to accountability within the justice system, which contributes to broader rule of law and thus C2 effectiveness.
  • Coordination: Coordination between DPSU and TCCs for mobilization and with international partners (Greece security agreement, Poland drone agreement, Ireland military aid, US PURL) indicates continued internal administrative control and external C2 integration. The Coordination Headquarters for POWs maintains critical links with families, a key morale factor impacting C2. КМВА calling for business involvement in accessibility projects indicates coordination between civilian and military administrations for broader societal resilience.

Confidence: MEDIUM

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (Confidence: HIGH)

• Defensive Stance: UAF maintains an active defensive posture across all major axes, successfully repelling numerous RF assaults (11 in Kursk/Sumy directions, 2 in Kherson). President Zelenskyy met with soldiers of the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade, highlighting their participation in the defense of Myrnohrad. Presidential Brigade of UAF posts video showing night combat operations on the front, emphasizing vigilance.
• Localized Counter-Offensives: Confirmed liberation of Pankivka, Donetsk Oblast, and Zarichne, and elimination of a Russian breakthrough near Pokrovsk with ongoing cleanup operations, indicates continued offensive capability for localized gains. The "STRIKS" unit's successful strikes on the Southern Slobobozhansky direction and border guard strikes on RF vehicles also demonstrate tactical offensive readiness. President Zelenskyy's visit to Donetsk Oblast, discussing liberated territories and meeting soldiers of the Dobropillya counter-offensive operation, confirms active UAF offensive operations and leadership engagement in this sector, reporting 160 sq km liberated and 7 settlements freed. The 1st Assault Regiment's successful counter to an RF "pincer" maneuver near Dobropillya demonstrates strong readiness. NEW: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts photo messages of President Zelenskyy awarding soldiers participating in the Dobropillya counter-offensive, reinforcing success and readiness.
• High Readiness in Key Sectors: Sustained commitment of forces in the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction and efforts to hold Kupiansk demonstrate readiness to engage in high-intensity combat. Visual confirmation of the 77th Airmobile Brigade's presence on the front reinforces this. UAF artillery units demonstrating continuous operations in all weather (Олексій Білошицький) highlights a key aspect of readiness.
• Tactical Drone Integration: Extensive use of FPV and thermal-imaging drones for night operations and precision strikes (Azov Brigade, "Shadow" unit), including new 10-inch FPV drones from volunteer efforts, highlights advanced tactical readiness and adaptability. New cooperation agreement with Poland on drones, and joint operational group on UAVs. Оперативний ЗСУ's video of the 1st Assault Battalion using FPV drones against RF checkpoints and transport confirms robust tactical drone integration in Zaporizhzhia. President Zelenskyy's discussions with DSHV commanders in Donetsk Oblast explicitly included drone systems.
• Personnel Mobilization: DPSU is transferring data on men attempting to illegally cross the border to TCCs, indicating ongoing efforts to maintain personnel readiness and combat draft evasion. The new Law on the Military Ombudsman indicates a focus on personnel welfare to support readiness. Training activities by the Zaporizhzhia Center for National Resistance also contribute to overall societal readiness. The video from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS showing a captured RF soldier after only two weeks of service suggests that UAF forces are effectively identifying and capturing recently mobilized/contracted RF personnel, which can contribute to UAF morale and intelligence.
• Morale: Exhibitions for Tank Troops Day and commemoration of rescuers, along with positive messaging about the 77th Airmobile Brigade, contribute to maintaining morale, though the "extremely difficult situation in Kupiansk" reported by a UAF-affiliated source (STERNENKO) suggests localized morale challenges. Discussions with families of POW/MIA personnel also address morale and welfare. The opening of a memorial alley in Zaporizhzhia for fallen heroes is a direct effort to boost public and military morale. UAF IO material depicting soldiers in combat and sacrifice is also used to bolster morale, as are images of reconnaissance personnel. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts photos reinforcing soldier camaraderie. President Zelenskyy has visited a command post of the 82nd Air Assault Brigade in Donetsk Oblast, discussing active defense, training, manning, and drone systems. This high-level engagement directly with frontline commanders and focus on critical technologies demonstrates sustained readiness and adaptability. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (Kharkiv ODA Head) posts photo messages about stable mobile communication and internet being guaranteed even under enemy shelling. This reflects UAF efforts to maintain critical communications infrastructure resilience.
• External Support: NEW: First US PURL weapons package arrived in Ukraine, enhancing immediate combat readiness.

Confidence: HIGH

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (Confidence: HIGH)

• Successes:
  • Counter-Offensive Operations: President Zelenskyy's report of a successful counter-offensive in Donetsk Oblast, around Pokrovsk and Dobropillya, resulting in 160 square kilometers liberated, 7 settlements freed, and over 2,500 Russian casualties (1,300 killed), is a significant operational success. This also led to nearly 100 Russian POWs, significantly boosting the exchange fund. President Zelenskyy's meeting with 79th Air Assault Brigade confirms their involvement in this counter-offensive. NEW: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts photo messages of President Zelenskyy awarding soldiers participating in the Dobropillya counter-offensive, underscoring this success.
  • Ground Defense/Counter-Attack: The 1st Assault Regiment (1-й ОШП) successfully "cut the pincers" of Russians near Dobropillya, demonstrating effective defensive and limited counter-offensive capabilities.
  • Deep Strike - Energy Infrastructure: Successful UAF drone attack on "Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat" petrochemical complex in Bashkortostan, over 1300km from the border, represents a significant strategic deep strike, now corroborated by multiple sources and visual evidence. The strike on the ELOU-AVT-4 unit within the complex is a specific targeting success.
  • Deep Strike - Command Personnel (Unverified but Corroborated): Claim of 18 officers of RF 35th Combined Arms Army operational staff killed in a sabotage operation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. While the "sabotage operation" part remains unverified, the list of 18 names from Anatoliy Shtefan lends significant credibility to the casualty claim. If verified, this is a significant HVT strike.
  • Air Defense (HVT): Destruction of an RF Buk-M2 SAM system by UAF 15th Separate Artillery Reconnaissance Brigade "Black Forest" (video confirmed) is a high-value target elimination.
  • Ground Engagement: The 425th Regiment "Skelya" captured 17 RF occupiers in a week. "Rubizh" Brigade repelled a mechanized assault, inflicting heavy RF infantry casualties. "STRIKS" unit achieved six accurate strikes against RF positions, including an artillery position and antenna in Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainian border guards struck three enemy vehicles and manpower in the Southern direction. The 1st Assault Battalion is successfully using FPV drones against RF targets in Zaporizhzhia. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of captured RF soldiers, including one captured only two weeks after signing a contract, highlighting successful tactical intelligence and capture operations.
  • Long-Range Precision Strike: HIMARS striking a large concentration of RF moto-assault troops on the Kramatorsk direction.
  • Counter-Infiltration: Flooding a gas pipe in Kupiansk to thwart RF infiltration.
  • Counter-UAV Procurement: Acquisition of an additional 370 FPV drones, including 20 Shahed interceptors, through public donations in one day, and continuous acquisition of advanced FPV drones, demonstrates rapid adaptation and public support.
  • Diplomatic Achievements: Ratification of security cooperation agreement with Greece. New drone cooperation agreement with Poland, including a joint operational group. New military aid from Ireland. NEW: First US PURL weapons delivery to Ukraine, with more expected, is a significant diplomatic and logistical success.
  • Internal Anti-Corruption: Uncovering significant corruption in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (embezzlement, fraud, drug crimes), ongoing investigations into TCC officials, investigation into a pro-Russian judge, the detention of Novinsky (RPC curator), and the uncovering of an organized gambling network in Kyiv demonstrates continued efforts to improve governance. Prosecution of an FSB officer for war crimes. Life sentence for an FSB officer who brutally treated civilians in Kherson Oblast demonstrates accountability for war crimes.
  • Counter-Intelligence: SBU detention of an RF agent in Ukraine, including a specific RF attacks spotter in Kharkiv Oblast. A group of Russian intelligence agents planning four terrorist attacks was detained in Lithuania. Exposure of a group, led by a PRC citizen, who recruited and exploited Uzbek citizens in Kyiv Oblast, indicates continued UAF law enforcement against human trafficking and highlights potential international criminal networks operating in Ukraine.
  • Demining: Over 280 hectares of Kharkiv Oblast demined in a week.
  • Repatriation of War Dead: Return of 1000 bodies (claimed by RF as Ukrainian servicemen) by RF and 24 RF bodies returned by Ukraine, indicates ongoing efforts to repatriate war dead. Confirmed by МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, and Рыбарь.
  • Leadership Engagement: President Zelenskyy's visit to Donetsk Oblast and meetings with soldiers of the Dobropillya counter-offensive provide direct support and recognition to frontline units. His visit to the 82nd Air Assault Brigade command post in Donetsk Oblast further reinforces this.
• Setbacks:
  • Kupiansk Defensive Deterioration: UAF-affiliated sources (STERNENKO) reporting "extremely difficult situation in Kupiansk" and RF expanding control within the city contradicts earlier UAF claims and indicates a significant setback in urban defense, regardless of General Staff denials of central city fighting. This could indicate a strategic withdrawal or consolidation of forces.
  • Railway Infrastructure Damage: Confirmed damage to several sections of railway in Poltava Oblast due to RF night shelling will impact logistics.
  • Aerial Attack BDA (Civilian Casualties): Significant damage to critical infrastructure in Nizhyn, Cherkasy, and Kirovohrad from RF drone and missile attacks, including the "most massive strike" on Nizhyn. The warehouse fire near Kyiv is also a setback. The КАБ strike on Konstantinovka residential area killing 5 civilians is a severe setback in terms of human cost and civilian infrastructure damage. A hostile UAV threat has been reported over Kyiv (STERNENKO, Klichko), indicating an ongoing threat to the capital. NEW: Multiple drones heading from Chernihiv to Kyiv Oblast pose an immediate threat. Persistent КАБ activity in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
  • C2 Security Compromise: Discovery of a listening device in the Lviv Mayor's office represents a significant intelligence penetration.
  • Personnel Morale/Sustainment: A video from a wounded UAF soldier expressing financial struggles and lack of respect is a significant indicator of potential morale issues within segments of the military, potentially resonating with the broader public. The captured RF soldier's testimony about internal issues in the RF army (bribes, abuse) could also serve to boost UAF morale by highlighting enemy weakness.
  • Potential UAF Losses: RF IO posts, such as АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА's memorial graphic, potentially indicate UAF losses. NEW: Colonelcassad claims an Iskander cluster munition struck a UAF company tactical group in Druzhkivka, suggesting potential UAF personnel and equipment losses.

Confidence: HIGH

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• Requirements:
  • Air Defense Assets: Continued high-volume RF drone attacks necessitate persistent resupply and deployment of air defense systems and interceptor drones. The daily public donations for drones underscore this ongoing need. New drone cooperation with Poland is critical for this.
  • Counter-Intelligence Capabilities: The Lviv wiretap and captured RF agent/spotter highlight an urgent need for enhanced TSCM and counter-intelligence resources to protect C2 across all levels of government and military. Heavy Artillery and Precision Munitions: Continued engagement across multiple axes and successful HIMARS strikes indicate an ongoing requirement for heavy artillery and precision-guided munitions. UAF artillery units' continuous operations require sustained ammunition supply.
  • Winterization: With cold fronts moving into the Carpathians and snow predicted, winter equipment and supplies will become a critical requirement.
  • Personnel Support: The appeal from the wounded soldier indicates a requirement to review and improve financial compensation and overall support systems for service members, particularly those wounded or in rear areas, to maintain morale and retention. The substantial financial incentives offered by RF (e.g., 4 million ruble bonus for contract soldiers, as noted by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) suggest a need for UAF to ensure its compensation packages remain competitive and motivating.
  • Communications Resilience: Investment in hardening mobile communication and internet infrastructure to ensure stable connectivity under enemy shelling.
  • Military Aid: New military aid from Ireland helps address ongoing equipment needs. NEW: The arrival of the first US PURL weapons package indicates a continued requirement for foreign military aid, and this specific package helps fulfill immediate needs.
• Constraints:
  • Logistical Strain: Damage to railway infrastructure, especially in Poltava Oblast, will constrain UAF's ability to move personnel and materiel efficiently.
  • Personnel Mobility: DPSU measures against illegal border crossing, though necessary, could impact the availability of personnel if conscription drives are perceived as overly harsh.
  • Infrastructure Protection: The scale of RF aerial attacks forces UAF to commit significant resources to protecting critical civilian infrastructure, potentially diverting from frontline needs. The Konstantinovka КАБ strike adds to this burden.
  • Humanitarian Aid Regulation: The new law on humanitarian transport, while necessary, could create temporary logistical friction during implementation.
  • Individual Equipment Sourcing: The continued reliance on individual soldier efforts and crowdfunding for items like tactical gear and drones (as indicated by "Soldier's everyday life" photos and STERNENKO's fundraiser) suggests that official supply chains may still have shortfalls. The "Marathon of Hundreds" mentioned by ARHANHEL SPETSNZ, although for RF, highlights the ongoing need for electronic equipment, which both sides likely face constraints in procuring.

Confidence: MEDIUM

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (Confidence: HIGH)

• RF Narratives:
  • UAF Disorganization/Collapse: RF is heavily amplifying claims of "chaos and disorganization" and a "failed defense" in Kupiansk, leveraging quotes from Ukrainian military bloggers to lend false credibility. This is a deliberate psychological operation to undermine UAF morale and confidence. The claim of breakthroughs to Zaporizhzhia via Kamyanske and Plavni, citing a UAF speaker, is an attempt to amplify perceived UAF weakness.
  • Internal Security Successes: Extensive reporting on FSB thwarting "terrorist attacks" in St. Petersburg, detaining "Ukrainian intelligence agents," and capturing "extremists," alongside the sentencing of a school guard for a Bucha repost, a resident for VKontakte audio recordings, and a new fine for wishing death to Russian soldiers, serves to project an image of a secure and capable state, while demonizing Ukraine and suppressing dissent. The narrative of "Colombian mercenaries organizing criminal business" in Ukraine also serves to discredit foreign fighters and link the conflict to criminality. Reports of detentions in Britain for spying for Russia also fit this narrative. The harsh 14-year sentence for a Zaporizhzhia resident supporting UAF reinforces the narrative of stringent control and suppression of dissent in occupied territories. The release of Baza producer Lukyanova to house arrest is a nuanced internal security narrative. The "drunk serviceman" in St. Petersburg hospital is also a negative internal security incident. Colonelcassad amplifies explanation from "Saperavi" restaurant on "Russophobic video," indicating RF's continued active monitoring and response to internal dissent and narratives. TASS reports Baza editor-in-chief Trifonov admitted guilt, confirming continued internal security operations targeting media perceived as hostile. Putin's statements on migration policy reinforce a narrative of strong internal security and control. Putin's support for selling "beautiful" car numbers on Gosuslugi aims to project a sense of order and civil society functionality (Новости Москвы). NEW: TASS reports a 14.5-year sentence for a former bodyguard, indicating continued internal law enforcement and punishment. NEW: TASS reports AI-generated photos can lead to passport denial, indicating control over personal data and identity. NEW: TASS reports three Russian children were added to "Myrotvorets," a clear narrative to demonize Ukraine and portray Russians as victims.
  • Military Successes/Western Equipment Destruction: Claims of destroying Swedish "S-tanks" and "NATO supersystems" (e.g., PzH 2000), and "liberating Novonikolaevka," "Malaya Tokmachka," and Otradnoye, aim to exaggerate RF battlefield achievements and discredit Western military aid. New claims of precision strikes by Tornado-S MLRS crews in Konstantinovka, allegedly eliminating a UAF platoon. The video on "how Storm troopers train" also aims to project RF military capability and resilience. The "IPSO with cats" aims to humanize RF soldiers. The amplification of a 1000:24 UAF to RF body exchange ratio (highly likely exaggerated) reinforces the narrative of high UAF casualties. Promotion of financial incentives for contract soldiers also aims to project military strength and attractiveness. RF is also promoting its efforts to improve C2 in offensive operations. Putin's statements on high combat aviation development reinforce this. Putin's claim of 700,000 personnel on the line of combat is a significant IO effort to project scale (Kotsnews, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники). The awarding of soldiers from a tank brigade in Buryatia (Воин DV) serves to boost military morale and project success. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's video featuring Putin alongside individuals with "Z" symbols, implying that pardoned criminals are being presented as a "replacement" (замена) for those in power or for military service, aims to normalize controversial recruitment practices, although БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС's framing is highly critical. NEW: Colonelcassad reports a cluster Iskander strike on a UAF company tactical group, portraying RF precision strike capability.
  • Normalcy/Stability: Reports on heating season starting, domestic incidents (crocodiles in "Moskvarium", MinFin's wine commentary, family mortgage discussions, protein quality reports, housing construction, sports nutrition labeling), and political appointments/resignations (Kozak, Gerasimov's extension - Colonelcassad) aim to project an image of stability and normalcy within Russia, despite the ongoing conflict. Discounting regional debts also contributes to this narrative. Putin's meeting with faction leaders (TASS) is framed as normal governance. RF assisting citizens in Gaza is a foreign policy normalcy report. Gold export restrictions suggest economic control, framed as stability. The wrestling tournament in Chechnya also projects regional pride and normalcy. Reports of EU importing goods from Russia despite sanctions promote RF economic resilience. AI updates to civilian encyclopedias promote a sense of progress. Xzibit concert in Moscow projects cultural normalcy. Putin's comment on Volgograd/Stalingrad taps into historical patriotism. Putin's emphasis on macro-economic stability is designed to reassure. Putin's claims of lowest unemployment highlight economic normalcy. Putin's discussions on inflation (ТАСС) are part of this narrative of economic control and stability. TASS reporting on a world speed record on a Ferrari on an aircraft carrier also promotes a sense of technological prowess and normalcy. NEW: Басурин о главном posts a commercial for cars, subtly promoting a sense of normalcy and consumer confidence.
  • UAF Atrocities/War Crimes: New, highly inflammatory narratives claiming UAF attacked an ambulance in Oleshky and an FPV drone operator deliberately killed a civilian hostage on the Krasnolimansky direction. These are likely false flag operations or misattributed incidents designed to demonize UAF.
  • Ukrainian Weakness/Winter Blackouts: RF is amplifying a UAF commander's statement predicting winter blackouts due to shelling, to further demoralize and signal continued attacks.
  • Western Disunity/Failures: Propaganda about "Europe pays, USA earns" directly targets the transatlantic alliance, aiming to sow discord and undermine support for Ukraine. Reports of US domestic issues and French protests against a defense factory (TASS report on Paris protests) are used to highlight Western internal divisions and problems. The satirical BBC headline about Macron is a direct attack. Lavrov's statements blaming the EU for prolonging the conflict reinforce this. Trump's statements that "Putin let me down" regarding Ukraine (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, Операция Z) and Starmer's discussions on "how to make Putin agree to peace" (РБК-УкраїНА, ASTRA) are being carefully monitored and likely spun by RF IO to highlight perceived Western confusion or disagreements. ТАСС also reports Trump's hope for "good news" regarding Ukraine settlement, further adding to the narrative of Western figures pushing for a resolution. NEW: TASS amplifies Trump's claims that falling oil prices could end the conflict, an IO narrative to shift blame and pressure Western economic policy. NEW: Alex Parker Returns amplifies Trump's "Putin let me down" statement, but frames it as crying, potentially for humorous or dismissive effect. NEW: TASS reports protests in Paris against austerity, explicitly linking them to "Katyusha" music, portraying Western internal disunity and anti-government sentiment. NEW: РБК-Україна reports Trump wants to return troops to Afghanistan, possibly as an IO attempt to highlight perceived US strategic missteps or a shift in focus away from Ukraine.
  • North Korean Involvement: Solovyov's proposal to replace Russian border guards with North Koreans, while presented as a discussion, could be a subtle IO effort to float the idea of greater North Korean involvement in the conflict or security arrangements.
  • Redeployment to Kyiv Threat: The claim that "Zapad-2025 ended and training troops are moving to real operations against Kyiv forces" (Janus Putkonen) is a direct IO threat, aiming to create fear and divert UAF resources.
  • Strategic IO Development: The proposal from RF Ministry of Defense "politruks" to create a state concept for "constructing the image of Russia's enemy" indicates a more formalized and long-term approach to information warfare, aiming to unify internal support and justify aggression.
  • Propaganda through Memorials: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА's memorial graphic, while seemingly commemorating, is an RF IO attempt to highlight UAF losses, particularly from special forces.
  • Humanizing the Conflict: The "Fate of a Man" video aims to humanize the conflict from an RF perspective.
  • Anti-Russian Sentiment as Internal Threat: The video about a restaurant manager making anti-Russian statements aims to highlight and suppress internal dissent or perceived threats to the RF narrative. The "kolkhoz woman" video also aims to identify and demonize internal dissent.
  • Foreign Policy Engagements: Zakharova's briefing on Lavrov's UNGA plans highlights RF's diplomatic efforts on the international stage. Рыбарь's "Trap for Turks" image, though artistic, suggests IO targeting specific international relationships, likely related to NATO or regional influence. NEW: Colonelcassad highlights a Saudi-Pakistan mutual defense pact, likely intending to show a shifting global alignment away from Western influence. NEW: MoD Russia meeting with Nigerian Chief of Defence Staff is used to project growing global partnerships.
• UAF Narratives:
  • Resilience and Effectiveness: Emphasis on repelling RF assaults, successful deep strikes (Salavat refinery, Buk-M2), and the capture of RF personnel (425th Regiment "Skelya", "STRIKS" unit successes, border guard strikes, SBU agent detention, Kharkiv spotter detention, 35th Combined Arms Army casualties list) reinforces UAF's fighting capability and resolve. Zelenskyy's report of successful counter-offensive in Donetsk Oblast, including liberated territory and significant RF casualties, is a major boost to this narrative. The active public fundraising for advanced FPV drones ("best drones to work with") is a key part of this narrative. Reconnaissance personnel are highlighted as key to victory. The destroyed Poltava monument helicopter also serves as a symbol of resilience. UAF artillery displaying adaptability and continuous operation also reinforces this. President Zelenskyy's direct engagement with frontline units in Donetsk Oblast and the 82nd Air Assault Brigade command post further supports this narrative. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts reinforcing soldier morale. The 1st Assault Regiment's success near Dobropillya reinforces this. President Zelenskyy meeting with 79th Air Assault Brigade soldiers directly supports the narrative of resilience and success, highlighting specific unit involvement in current operations. KMVA reports no aerial targets over Kyiv, indicating successful air defense. NEW: The arrival of US PURL weapons is a strong narrative for continued international support and UAF capabilities. NEW: The Presidential Brigade of UAF posts a video showcasing night combat operations, emphasizing vigilance and effectiveness. NEW: Dnipropetrovsk ODA Head visiting emergency medical services championship highlights preparedness and resilience in the face of attacks. NEW: Zaporizhzhia ODA posts about evacuating young footballers, highlighting humanitarian efforts amidst conflict.
  • Humanitarian Impact of RF Aggression: Documenting casualties (Konstantinovka КАБ strike killing 5 civilians), damage to civilian infrastructure (Nizhyn, Zaporizhzhia), and war crimes allegations (exhumation videos, Donetsk displacement photos) aims to highlight RF atrocities and maintain international support. The opening of the memorial alley in Zaporizhzhia directly reinforces the narrative of sacrifice and remembrance. Demining efforts highlight UAF efforts to protect civilians. NEW: Dnipropetrovsk ODA reporting КАБ and drone strikes on civilian communities highlights RF aggression and humanitarian impact.
  • Internal Anti-Corruption: Reports on investigations into TCC officials and high-level fraud, recent corruption busts in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the investigation into a pro-Russian judge, the detention of Novinsky (RPC curator), and the uncovering of an organized gambling network in Kyiv demonstrate commitment to transparency and good governance. Prosecution of an FSB officer for war crimes. Life sentence for an FSB officer who brutally treated civilians in Kherson Oblast. Exposure of a human trafficking ring led by a PRC citizen.
  • Deep Strike Effectiveness: Zelenskyy's statements confirming successful operations on RF territory and the impact on the RF fuel sector highlight UAF's growing asymmetrical capabilities.
  • International Support: Highlighting security cooperation agreements with partners like Greece and the new drone cooperation agreement with Poland, including a joint operational group. New military aid from Ireland. Poland checking bomb shelters also indirectly signals allied seriousness about RF threats. РБК-Україна reporting Starmer's commitment to help Ukraine with Trump (photo message) promotes the narrative of strong international backing. Trump's statements about "Putin letting him down" and hopes for "good news" on the Ukraine settlement are being used by UAF IO to highlight potential divisions in the West's perception of Putin's actions and a desire for peace on Ukraine's terms. NEW: Confirmation of US PURL weapons arrival is a major positive for international support narratives. NEW: Operatyvny ZSU amplifies Trump's "oil price" statement, but from a Ukrainian perspective, possibly to highlight potential pressure points on Russia.
  • Sacrifice and Patriotism: UAF IO material depicting soldiers in combat and sacrifice, often leveraging emotional elements like a fallen soldier with a cat, reinforces patriotic narratives. Training initiatives for national resistance also foster patriotism. The Military Ombudsman law emphasizes caring for service members. The Coordination Headquarters provides critical support for families of POWs/MIAs, bolstering morale.
  • Repatriation Efforts: Active reporting on the return of bodies of fallen servicemen demonstrates transparency and care for personnel.
  • Democratic Norms: Report on no elections in 2026 implies UAF IO to justify wartime measures. Appointment of Tetyana Chornovol as people's deputy highlights democratic processes.

Confidence: HIGH

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• Ukrainian Public Sentiment:
  • Resilience and Support: Continued public donations for FPV drones (370+ in one day, "best drones") and strong participation in memorial/rescuer events indicate sustained public support for the war effort and resilience. Meetings with families of POW/MIA personnel contribute to maintaining support. The memorial in Zaporizhzhia is a powerful symbol for remembrance and patriotism. Civilian resistance training indicates preparedness. President Zelenskyy's direct engagement with frontline units in Donetsk Oblast and the 82nd Air Assault Brigade command post will significantly boost morale, especially after reporting successful counter-offensive operations. Soldier morale is reinforced by IO from Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України. Kharkov ODA Head's focus on communications resilience will also be a positive factor. The success of the 1st Assault Regiment near Dobropillya will be a morale boost. President Zelenskyy's meeting with the 79th Air Assault Brigade reinforces direct leadership support, likely boosting morale. КМВА's call for business involvement in accessibility (photo messages) reflects efforts to maintain normalcy and address societal needs during wartime, which can boost public morale. NEW: The arrival of US PURL weapons will provide a morale boost, demonstrating continued tangible international support. NEW: Dnipropetrovsk ODA Head's visit to the emergency medical services championship promotes a sense of preparedness and civilian resilience. NEW: Zaporizhzhia ODA's post about evacuating young footballers emphasizes care for children and continued efforts to protect citizens.
  • Concern over Kupiansk: The "extremely difficult situation" reported by STERNENKO likely causes significant concern, especially given the General Staff's official denials. This divergence could strain public trust if the situation in Kupiansk worsens.
  • Impact of Strikes: The "most massive strike" on Nizhyn and the continued targeting of civilian infrastructure (Zaporizhzhia casualties, Kyiv residential fire, Donetsk displacement, Konstantinovka КАБ strike with 5 fatalities) will inevitably impact civilian morale and create localized distress. RF amplification of a UAF commander predicting winter blackouts will further exacerbate these fears. The hostile UAV threat over Kyiv (STERNENKO, Klichko) also contributes to public anxiety. NEW: Renewed drone threat for Kyiv from Chernihiv Oblast will cause immediate anxiety in the capital. Persistent КАБ activity in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
  • Mobilization Concerns: The DPSU handing over data on illegal border crossers to TCCs could create anxiety regarding conscription efforts.
  • Source of Strength: The interview with a Ukrainian soldier highlighting "love" as a driving force provides insight into the psychological resilience of UAF personnel.
  • Dissatisfaction with Support: The video from a wounded soldier expressing financial struggles and lack of respect is a significant indicator of potential morale issues within segments of the military, potentially resonating with the broader public. The captured RF soldier's testimony about internal issues in the RF army (bribes, abuse) could also serve to boost UAF morale by highlighting enemy weakness.
  • Justice Efforts: Reports on corruption busts and judicial investigations (including Novinsky's detention, FSB officer prosecution, human trafficking exposure) will likely be viewed positively by the public, boosting trust in governance. The investigation into children without proper care in Donetsk Oblast also shows a focus on domestic welfare issues.
  • Political Stability: The statement that elections will not be held in 2026 is likely to be accepted given wartime conditions, but consistent messaging is needed.
• Russian Public Sentiment:
  • Reinforced Patriotism: IO narratives about internal security successes and military victories in Ukraine (e.g., liberating Otradnoye, Konstantinovka strike) are designed to boost patriotic sentiment and morale. The priest leaving for the front, and the death of an 18-year-old son of a mobilized soldier, though tragic, might be framed to evoke patriotic sacrifice. The rescue of a Chinese tourist by a Russian citizen is a positive IO effort. The "IPSO with cats" aims to humanize and endear soldiers to the public. The wrestling tournament in Chechnya also projects regional pride and normalcy. The Veterans Association promotes patriotism and community. High financial incentives for contract soldiers aim to attract and retain personnel. Putin's integration of SMO veterans into political parties aims to further nationalize the war effort. Putin's comments on Stalingrad and macro-economic stability are designed for public reassurance. Putin's claims of lowest unemployment and 700k personnel on the line of combat aim to boost confidence. Putin's support for land grants to veterans further reinforces patriotic narratives. The image of a ruble coin is a subtle patriotic/normalcy message. The awarding of soldiers from Buryatia (Воин DV) contributes to this. NEW: "Два майора" post on national pride and history aims to reinforce patriotism. "Ахмат" SpN channel's General-Lieutenant Alaudinov's speech is highly nationalistic and aims to boost morale and unity.
  • Distraction: Domestic "normalcy" reporting (e.g., "Moskvarium" crocodiles, wedding convoys in Chechnya, MinFin's wine commentary, family mortgage discussions, protein quality reports, housing construction, sports nutrition labeling, taxi ads, selling "beautiful" car numbers - Новости Москвы) serves to distract from military losses and economic difficulties. AI updates to civilian encyclopedias promote a sense of progress. Xzibit concert in Moscow projects cultural normalcy. TASS reporting on a world speed record with a Ferrari also contributes to a sense of normalcy and technical achievement. NEW: Басурин о главном posts a car commercial, serving as a distraction and promoting consumerism.
  • Internal Stress: Reports of "bosses causing stress" and other domestic incidents (accidents, corruption in LNR, St. Petersburg hospital knife fight) suggest underlying societal pressures, potentially exacerbated by the war. The arrest and sentencing of a Baza editor-in-chief, a school guard for dissent, a resident for VKontakte audio recordings, and a new fine for wishing death to Russian soldiers signal increased suppression of independent information and freedom of speech, which could generate fear. Proposals to disconnect the internet indicate a readiness for extreme measures of social control, potentially causing internal friction. The resignation of Dmitry Kozak is a notable internal political event, the public perception of which remains to be seen. The "restaurant not needed" comment and the "kolkhoz woman" video may point to further internal crackdowns on perceived dissent. Advice from MVD on scammers also points to internal anxieties. Putin's focus on migration enforcement also indicates areas of social stress. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's critical framing of Putin's statements about using criminals (замена) might resonate with some segments of the population who are uncomfortable with such practices. NEW: ASTRA reports Baza editor-in-chief moved to house arrest, a nuanced development, but still indicative of internal pressures on media.
  • Moral Compromises: The report of a rapist being offered military service instead of prison could deeply divide or disturb some segments of the population, even if accepted by others as a pragmatic solution to manpower needs.
  • Personnel Concerns: Solovyov's proposal to use North Korean border guards suggests potential domestic concern or pressure regarding Russian military personnel deployment.
  • Casualty Management: The body exchange, with RF promoting a highly skewed casualty ratio, aims to manage domestic perception of losses.
  • Economic Anxiety: Putin's discussion on inflation (ТАСС) acknowledges public concern over economic stability, even while attempting to reassure.

Confidence: MEDIUM

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments (Confidence: HIGH)

• For Ukraine:
  • Continued Military Aid: US commitment to sending 33,000 AI drones by year-end signals sustained military support. New military aid from Ireland. NEW: NATO confirms the first US weapons delivery under PURL has arrived in Ukraine, with more expected. This is a significant tangible boost.
  • Diplomatic Engagement: Potential Trump-Zelenskyy meeting indicates ongoing high-level diplomatic efforts to maintain international alliances. Ratification of security cooperation with Greece diversifies and strengthens international defense partnerships. Trump meeting with British PM Starmer indicates continued Western diplomatic engagement, including a new "Tech Prosperity Deal." New drone cooperation agreement with Poland, including a joint operational group. Ukrainian PM Shmyhal's meeting in Poland indicates further bilateral cooperation. РБК-Україна reporting Starmer's statement that he and Trump are working together to help Ukraine (photo message) promotes this. Starmer's statement on discussing with Trump how to "make Putin agree to peace" (РБК-Україна, ASTRA) suggests continued diplomatic pressure on Russia. Trump's statements about "good news" for Ukraine (ТАСС, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) and that the war will end with things done "correctly" provide positive messaging for Ukraine. NEW: Operatyvny ZSU also reports the first US PURL weapon delivery.
  • International Condemnation (Implicit): The unverified but potentially escalating F-16 missile incident in Poland could lead to increased international scrutiny if attributed to an RF-aligned actor or cause. Australia's new sanctions against Russian oil and its "shadow fleet" demonstrate continued international economic pressure on RF. The ongoing body exchange highlights the human cost of the conflict internationally. Lavrov's statements blaming the EU for prolonging the war will likely be condemned by Western allies. Estonia's expansion of the ban on Russian natural gas signifies continued European economic pressure. Poland checking bomb shelters also indirectly signals allied seriousness about RF threats.
• For Russia:
  • Military Cooperation/Bloc Building: Participation of Bangladesh, India, Iran, Burkina Faso, Congo, and Mali in "Zapad-2025" demonstrates RF's efforts to build a non-Western military bloc and showcase its influence. CSTO exercises "Rubezh-2025" in Kyrgyzstan further reinforce regional alliances. Continued S-400 sales to Turkey. High-level security and migration talks with China (Kolokoltsev's visit), including a police armament exhibition, signal deepening strategic ties and potential for dual-use technology transfer. Discussions about North Korean border guards may signal deeper security cooperation. NEW: Colonelcassad highlights a Saudi-Pakistan mutual defense pact, likely intending to show a shifting global alignment away from Western influence. NEW: MoD Russia meeting with Nigerian Chief of Defence Staff underscores efforts to build new military partnerships.
  • Economic Isolation: US denial of "Belavia" Boeing flights to Russia and Rospatent refusal of Renault trademarks highlight ongoing economic isolation, though Russia seeks alternatives (e.g., self-developed Starlink analog). Slovakia and Hungary's resistance to reducing Russian energy imports provides some economic leverage for RF. Australia's new sanctions add to this pressure. Gold export restrictions indicate efforts to control capital flight and currency stability. However, reports of EU importing 8.7 billion euros of goods from Russia in Q1 2025 suggest some leakage in sanctions enforcement or continued dependency. ExxonMobil's confirmed departure also signals continued economic pressure. Estonia's expanded ban on Russian natural gas adds to this. Putin's statements on inflation during a meeting with parliamentary leaders (ТАСС) demonstrate an ongoing effort to manage the economic impact of sanctions.
  • Negative Perceptions: Claims from an ethnographer in Afghanistan that the Taliban consider Russians as enemies could signal growing diplomatic challenges in certain regions. French protests blocking a defense factory (TASS report on Paris protests) are being amplified by RF to highlight Western internal divisions. US visa restrictions on Lavrov's media pool highlight ongoing diplomatic tensions. Reports of British detentions for spying for Russia indicate continued international counter-intelligence efforts against RF. The proposal to create a state concept for "constructing the image of Russia's enemy" is a clear indication of RF's intent to shape international perceptions. Lavrov's statements on preconditions for compromise are designed for a global audience, particularly countries that may be neutral or sympathetic to Russia. Lavrov's planned meeting with Guterres also aims to shape international dialogue. TASS reports the Russian Embassy in Thailand is clarifying the disappearance of an RF citizen and child, which, while humanitarian, is a diplomatic issue that can attract negative international attention. Trump's direct criticism ("Putin let me down") is a significant negative diplomatic development for Russia on the international stage.

Confidence: HIGH

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA 1: Sustained Ground Offensive on Kupiansk-Lyman, Southern Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Axes (Confidence: HIGH)

• Actions: RF will continue to concentrate forces and intensify ground assaults on Kupiansk and the Serebryansky forestry area, aiming for local encirclements and urban control. They will likely attempt to capitalize on claimed advances and reported UAF disorganization in Kupiansk, employing urban infiltration tactics (e.g., via gas pipes, sewers). On the Lyman axis, RF will push for a decisive encirclement in Serebryansky forestry, using combined arms and possibly disguised DRGs. Concurrently, RF will maintain and potentially intensify offensives on the Southern Donetsk direction, specifically around Novoivanovka, leveraging artillery and drone support, and continue to pressure the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) agglomeration, including urban fighting. Furthermore, RF will likely escalate attempts to break through towards Zaporizhzhia via Kamyanske and Plavni. Localized advances on targets like Novonikolaevka, Malaya Tokmachka, Otradnoye, and in Dnipropetrovsk/Eastern Zaporizhzhia will persist to stretch UAF defenses. Precision MLRS strikes will continue on UAF positions, with a continued willingness to use guided aerial bombs on civilian targets (e.g., Konstantinovka). RF forces from "Zapad-2025" may be redeployed to active combat zones, potentially including the Kyiv axis, as implied by Janus Putkonen. Aggressive recruitment with high financial incentives will be sustained to back these operations. RF will also continue to enhance C2 networks in key offensive areas (e.g., Krasnoarmeysk direction). Putin's statements on over 700k personnel on the line of contact, though possibly inflated, suggest a high readiness to commit manpower. RF Army Aviation (Ka-52m) will continue to provide direct fire support to ground operations in relevant sectors (MoD Russia). RF will continue to leverage controversial recruitment methods (e.g., pardoned criminals) to sustain manpower for these offensives (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС). NEW: Cluster Iskander strikes against UAF company tactical groups (Druzhkivka) indicate an ongoing intent to target UAF troop concentrations as part of ground preparation or interdiction.
• Indicators: Continued RF tactical map updates showing small, incremental advances; increased drone activity for ISR and fire correction in these sectors; amplification of "UAF collapse" narratives by RF IO; sustained high-intensity artillery and glide bomb strikes in these areas. HUMINT from captured RF soldiers will detail specific infiltration tactics. Continued RF claims of destroying UAF strongholds and temporary deployment points in key areas like Konstantinovka and Malaya Tokmachka. Increased reports of RF armor (e.g., T-72 variants) in offensive actions. Visual evidence of ongoing fighting in Novoivanovka. MoD Russia reports on C2 improvements in Krasnoarmeysk. Рыбарь's map updates confirming "fights in the agglomeration." RF IO citing UAF sources on advances towards Zaporizhzhia. MoD Russia video showing Ka-52m strikes on AFU positions. Continued reports from TASS of fierce clashes near Konstantinovka. NEW: Increased reports of Iskander missile use against tactical targets.

MLCOA 2: High-Volume Aerial Campaign Targeting Critical Infrastructure (Confidence: HIGH)

• Actions: RF will launch another large-scale drone (Shahed) and possibly missile attack within 24-48 hours, maintaining the increased volume seen in the last wave (70-100+ UAVs, potential for 170+). The primary focus will remain on degrading Ukraine's energy grid (substations) and railway network (junctions, depots) to disrupt logistics and civilian resilience as winter approaches. Secondary targets may include military repair facilities and large logistics hubs, and military objects in Kyiv Oblast, as seen with the recent "night arrival" strikes. The detected UAV heading to Kramatorsk indicates continued localized aerial threats. The lethal КАБ strike on Konstantinovka suggests continued use of guided aerial bombs on urban areas. RF tactical aviation will remain active on the eastern direction, posing a threat to Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. A UAV threat has been reported in Kyiv (STERNENKO, Klichko), which indicates ongoing intent to target the capital. NEW: The confirmed presence of drones moving towards northwest Mykolaiv Oblast and a significant group from Chernihiv to Kyiv Oblast, along with persistent КАБ activity in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, suggests continuous, multi-directional aerial pressure. This will likely be intensified as a retaliatory measure for the Salavat refinery strike.
• Indicators: Reconnaissance UAV activity preceding strikes; warning from UAF Air Force about multiple drone groups and guided aerial bombs (e.g., in Kharkiv Oblast); increased media reporting on power outages and railway delays; RF IO claiming successful strikes on Ukrainian military targets; RF IO amplifying UAF commander statements predicting winter blackouts. Continued UAF Air Force warnings of aviation munition threats in Eastern Oblasts. STERNENKO and Klichko's reports of UAV threats in Kyiv, followed by KMVA's all clear, indicates an active aerial threat environment over the capital. NEW: Further UAF Air Force warnings regarding UAV movement in Mykolaiv and Chernihiv/Kyiv Oblasts, and КАБ launches in Zaporizhzhia.

MLCOA 3: Intensified Hybrid and Information Operations (Confidence: HIGH)

• Actions: RF will leverage the discovery of the Lviv wiretap and their claims of UAF disorganization in Kupiansk to launch a coordinated disinformation campaign. This campaign will aim to sow distrust between the Ukrainian military leadership and civilian government, and within the UAF ranks, while simultaneously portraying Ukraine as a failed state riddled with corruption and internal betrayal. They will continue to use "captured agent confessions" and internal security successes (St. Petersburg terror plot, Bucha repost sentencing, VKontakte fines, new fines for anti-war sentiment, harsh sentences in occupied territories, Baza producer release to house arrest, "drunk serviceman" incident, advice on scammers, migration policy enforcement) as part of this narrative to bolster their own image and demonize Ukraine. A new focus will be on discrediting foreign fighters and linking them to criminal activity, and promoting narratives of UAF war crimes (e.g., attacking ambulances, killing civilians with FPV drones). The SBU detention of an RF agent and Kharkiv spotter will likely be counter-narrated. Propaganda aimed at undermining international support for Ukraine (e.g., "Europe pays, USA earns") will be amplified. RF will also use non-military events like sports tournaments and domestic reports to project normalcy. The RF Ministry of Defense's proposal for a state concept of "constructing the image of Russia's enemy" signals a long-term, coordinated information warfare strategy. Lavrov's statements will be disseminated to frame RF's diplomatic stance, including his UNGA meeting. RF will further integrate SMO veterans into political activities to reinforce patriotic narratives. RF media will amplify internal dissent incidents (e.g., Moscow restaurant manager, "kolkhoz woman") to demonstrate state control. RF will specifically attempt to spin or counter the impact of Trump's statements about Putin "letting him down" regarding Ukraine, and Starmer's diplomatic efforts, to avoid perceptions of RF diplomatic isolation or failure. Putin's statements on inflation during parliamentary meetings will also serve to project economic control and stability. The IO will also use the messaging from БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (regarding Putin's comments on criminals as "replacements") to further their narrative about Ukraine's leadership. NEW: RF will specifically target narratives about US/NATO military aid (PURL) to undermine confidence and claim Western "escalation." RF will amplify Trump's claims about oil prices impacting the war to sow confusion and externalize blame. RF IO will continue to use highly nationalistic and aggressive content (e.g., Alaudinov's speech) to counter any UAF morale boosts. RF will amplify any Western internal divisions (e.g., Paris protests) to demonstrate weakness. RF will use claims about "Myrotvorets" adding Russian children to demonize Ukraine internationally.
• Indicators: Increased RF media output focusing on internal Ukrainian divisions, corruption, and "spy scandals"; specific targeting of UAF commanders or government officials in IO narratives; amplification of any domestic Ukrainian protests or social tensions (e.g., wounded soldier's appeal); increased reporting on RF internal security successes, and content discrediting foreign fighters, and new claims of UAF atrocities. Continued RF IO on veteran integration and domestic normalcy. Putin's focus on migration policy and land grants for veterans. RF statements attempting to downplay or reframe international diplomatic discourse regarding Ukraine, particularly Trump's comments. NEW: Direct RF media commentary on PURL or other Western aid packages. RF media focusing on commodity prices and their impact on global politics. Increased nationalistic and anti-Western rhetoric from high-level RF figures. Increased reporting on alleged Ukrainian "war crimes" against civilians or children.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA 1: Operational Encirclement and Collapse of Kupiansk/Serebryansky Defense (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• Actions: RF achieves a rapid breakthrough or encirclement of UAF forces in Serebryansky forestry or Kupiansk, leading to a large-scale withdrawal or surrender of UAF units. This could involve an unexpected deep strike, coordinated mechanized assault, or the successful exploitation of a command and control vulnerability exposed by intelligence operations like the Lviv wiretap or the detention of the Kharkiv spotter. This would free up significant RF forces for redeployment to other axes.
• Impact: A significant strategic and psychological blow to Ukraine, potentially destabilizing the entire Northeastern front and granting RF a major territorial gain.

MDCOA 2: Mass Cyberattack Synchronized with Physical Strikes (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• Actions: RF launches a sophisticated, widespread cyberattack against Ukraine's critical infrastructure (energy, communications, banking) synchronized with a large-scale physical missile and drone strike wave. This could aim to disable key C2 networks, emergency services, and civilian communications, causing widespread chaos and disrupting UAF response capabilities.
• Impact: Severe disruption to civilian life and UAF operations, potentially overwhelming emergency response and creating significant C2 challenges across multiple domains.

MDCOA 3: Provocation Escalation on NATO Border (Confidence: LOW)

• Actions: Following the F-16 missile incident in Poland (if RF-aligned, or a false flag), RF conducts a deliberate, low-intensity military provocation against a NATO border country (e.g., a drone incursion into Polish or Baltic airspace with intent to cause damage, or a direct border incident), aiming to test NATO's response and exploit any perceived divisions. The identified drone launch from Belarus into Lithuania underscores this capability, as does the reported OMON casualties during demining operations near the border. Increased RF-China security cooperation could embolden RF to take such actions. Estonia's "Lightning" exercises will be closely watched by RF. Solovyov's proposal regarding North Korean border guards, if implemented, could further complicate border dynamics. Poland's heightened alert (bomb shelter checks) indicates a perceived risk. NEW: Colonelcassad highlighting the Saudi-Pakistan defense pact demonstrates RF's awareness and potential leveraging of shifting global power dynamics.
• Impact: Significant escalation of regional tensions, with potential for miscalculation and wider conflict involving NATO.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Kupiansk/Lyman/Southern Donetsk/Pokrovsk/Zaporizhzhia Offensives: Within 24-72 hours, RF will likely attempt to consolidate gains and push for decisive actions in Kupiansk, Serebryansky forestry, Novoivanovka, the Pokrovsk agglomeration, and towards Zaporizhzhia (Kamyanske, Plavni). Decision Point: If RF is confirmed to have encircled or severely compromised UAF positions in Serebryansky forestry or is actively fighting in the center of Kupiansk or achieving significant penetration in Pokrovsk or towards Zaporizhzhia, UAF Command will need to decide on either reinforcing, attempting a counter-encirclement, or a strategic withdrawal to preserve forces. President Zelenskyy's engagement in Dobropillya suggests intent to reinforce/stabilize the front and leverage successful counter-offensives. The success of the 1st Assault Regiment near Dobropillya needs to be factored in.
• Aerial Campaign: Another large-scale RF aerial attack is likely within 24-48 hours, potentially aligned with seasonal conditions or tactical developments on the ground. A UAV threat has been reported in Kyiv, indicating immediate air defense engagement. Decision Point: UAF Air Force and relevant commands must anticipate, prepare, and allocate air defense assets to mitigate damage, particularly to railway infrastructure and energy nodes, and civilian areas. The new drone cooperation with Poland should be swiftly integrated into planning. The arrival of PURL weapons should be integrated into air defense planning if applicable.
• Hybrid Operations: RF IO and intelligence operations will be continuous. Decision Point: UAF STRATCOM and CI must proactively counter RF narratives and conduct immediate sweeps following any new intelligence threats, especially concerning C2 integrity, and strengthen physical and cyber defenses. The new law on humanitarian transport will require rapid implementation to mitigate disruption. The appeal from the wounded soldier requires an urgent response to address potential morale issues. Lavrov's statements will require careful counter-narratives. The incident with the "kolkhoz woman" and any associated targeting of businesses by RF activists will need to be monitored. UAF STRATCOM must immediately integrate the narrative of the first PURL weapons delivery to bolster morale and deter RF IO efforts. Counter-narratives must also be prepared for RF claims about "Myrotvorets" and Russian children.

INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CR)

1. Verification of RF Territorial Claims (CRITICAL - PRIORITY 1)

• Gap: Independent verification of RF claims regarding full control of Serebryansky forestry (Lyman axis) and the extent of RF penetration into Kupiansk's urban quarters, and the "liberation of Novonikolaevka," "Malaya Tokmachka," and "Otradnoye," and advances in Dnipropetrovsk/Eastern Zaporizhzhia, specifically Novoivanovka on the Southern Donetsk direction, claimed gains in the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) agglomeration, and the alleged breakthrough to Zaporizhzhia via Kamyanske and Plavni.
• Requirement: Task all-source ISR (SAR, EO/IR satellite imagery, drone overflights, HUMINT/SIGINT intercepts) to establish precise Lines of Contact (LOCs), confirm territorial control, and identify any UAF encirclement threats. Prioritize real-time imagery from these sectors.

2. Attribution and Network of Lviv Wiretap (CRITICAL - PRIORITY 2)

• Gap: Definitive attribution of the listening device in Lviv Mayor's office to RF intelligence agencies and identification of the full network involved.
• Requirement: Immediate, comprehensive counter-intelligence (CI) investigation, including forensic analysis of the device, technical surveillance counter-measures (TSCM) sweeps of all sensitive government/military facilities, and HUMINT collection on potential collaborators. This is a critical C2 protection requirement.

3. Impact Assessment of RF Railway Strikes (HIGH - PRIORITY 3)

• Gap: Detailed Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the impact of RF strikes on Ukrainian railway infrastructure in Poltava and other regions, specifically regarding operational capacity and repair timelines.
• Requirement: Obtain specific imagery and technical reports on damaged railway sections, assessment of repair timelines, and impact on UAF logistics flow. Monitor RF intelligence for follow-up targeting.

4. UAF Morale and Sustainment Issues (HIGH - PRIORITY 4)

• Gap: Full assessment of the scope and depth of morale and sustainment issues among UAF personnel, as highlighted by the wounded soldier's appeal and any similar reports. Assess the impact of RF's financial incentives for contract soldiers on UAF personnel retention and morale.
• Requirement: Conduct targeted HUMINT collection among UAF personnel (focusing on non-sensitive issues), analyze social media for similar sentiments, and review internal reports on pay, benefits, and support systems to identify systemic issues impacting morale and readiness.

5. Verification of RF Casualties/Losses and Atrocity Claims (MEDIUM - PRIORITY 5)

• Gap: Independent verification of claims of 18 RF 35th Combined Arms Army officers killed in Zaporizhzhia due to sabotage (while the list of names adds credibility, the sabotage aspect remains unconfirmed) and the death of the 18-year-old son of a mobilized soldier. Verification of the OMON casualties in Oryol Oblast. Critically, independent verification of RF claims of UAF attacking an ambulance and deliberately killing a civilian with an FPV drone. Verification of the highly exaggerated casualty exchange ratios, and Putin's claim of 700k personnel on the line of combat. Verification of the specific charges and contexts of the captured RF soldiers discussing murder (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС). Verification of UAF casualties from the Iskander strike near Druzhkivka.
• Requirement: Cross-reference UAF claims with available SIGINT, social media monitoring (RF casualty reports/obituaries), and satellite imagery for any large gatherings (funerals) or changes in command personnel. Investigate RF atrocity claims through open-source forensics, satellite imagery of claimed locations, and HUMINT/SIGINT if possible, to counter disinformation rapidly. Conduct BDA for the Druzhkivka strike using imagery and HUMINT.

6. RF Recruitment Practices and Force Quality (LOW - PRIORITY 6)

• Gap: Understanding the full extent and impact of RF's recruitment practices involving criminals (e.g., offering military service in lieu of punishment for serious crimes) on overall force quality, discipline, and unit cohesion. The potential for utilizing North Korean personnel on Russian borders.
• Requirement: Monitor Russian legal system and social media for further instances and public reaction to these practices, and assess the potential implications for RF military discipline and composition through HUMINT from captured personnel and defectors. Monitor any developments regarding North Korean deployment in Russia.

7. Redeployment of Zapad-2025 Forces (MEDIUM - PRIORITY 7)

• Gap: Confirming the scale and destination of redeployments of forces involved in "Zapad-2025" exercises, specifically if they are being integrated into active combat operations against Kyiv or other axes, as claimed by RF IO (Janus Putkonen).
• Requirement: Utilize satellite imagery, SIGINT, and open-source intelligence to track significant troop movements from Belarusian training grounds and other "Zapad-2025" exercise areas.

ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Immediate Defensive Posture Adjustments for Kupiansk-Lyman, Southern Donetsk, Pokrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia Axes:

   • Recommendation: Based on the high confidence of RF offensive pressure and potential encirclement threats in Serebryansky forestry and urban penetration in Kupiansk, and ongoing heavy fighting in Novoivanovka on the Southern Donetsk axis, continued pressure on Pokrovsk, and renewed push towards Zaporizhzhia, conduct immediate, localized force adjustments. Reinforce key defensive positions with readily available reserves, bolster fire support, and establish multiple fallback positions. Focus on counter-infiltration tactics in urban environments. Prioritize protection against precision missile strikes on tactical formations (e.g., Iskander cluster munitions).
   • Action: Commanders in the Kupiansk, Lyman, Southern Donetsk, Pokrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia sectors are to review current defensive plans, pre-position fire assets, and ensure clear lines of communication and withdrawal routes for threatened units. Implement enhanced anti-infiltration measures for urban defense, leveraging lessons learned and available counter-drone technologies. Prioritize aerial ISR to verify RF claims of territorial gains (e.g., Otradnoye, Serebryansky forestry, Novoivanovka, Pokrovsk, Kamyanske, Plavni). Disperse tactical formations to mitigate the impact of cluster munition strikes.

2. Nationwide CI Alert & Sweeps:

   • Recommendation: Elevate CI alert status across all military and government institutions. Initiate an immediate and systematic program of TSCM sweeps for listening devices and other forms of electronic espionage, prioritizing top-tier leadership offices and critical C2 centers.
   • Action: SBU and GUR CI elements are to coordinate a national program, sharing best practices and intelligence on RF espionage methods, and brief relevant personnel on enhanced personal security measures. Exploitation of the captured RF agent and Kharkiv spotter should be prioritized to identify broader networks. Investigate the judge from Marinka for potential collaboration. Prioritize investigation and action regarding Novinsky's alleged role as an "RPC curator in Ukraine." Ensure continued prosecution of war crimes, such as that of the FSB officer in Kherson.

3. Strategic Communication Counter-Narrative for Kupiansk, Southern Donetsk, Pokrovsk & RF Atrocity Claims:

   • Recommendation: Develop and disseminate a robust, fact-based counter-narrative to RF claims of UAF "chaos and disorganization" in Kupiansk, and emphasize the successful counter-offensive in Donetsk Oblast reported by President Zelenskyy (Pokrovsk/Dobropillya area) and the success of the 1st Assault Regiment. Highlight UAF resilience, successful tactical engagements (e.g., STRIKS unit, border guard strikes, Dobropillya counter-offensive), and controlled defensive actions, emphasizing the heavy cost to RF. Proactively counter RF narratives discrediting foreign fighters and undermining Western unity, and immediately address exaggerated casualty ratios and Putin's inflated troop numbers. Counter Lavrov's statements by emphasizing Ukraine's commitment to sovereignty and a just peace. Immediately address the civilian casualties from the Konstantinovka airstrike. Actively promote efforts to maintain communications resilience. Actively highlight and counter RF IO efforts to spin international statements, such as Trump's comments about Putin "letting him down." Leverage the arrival of the first US PURL weapons package to demonstrate continued, tangible international support and UAF capacity. Prepare and disseminate counter-narratives against RF claims regarding "Myrotvorets" and Russian children.
   • Action: STRATCOM should release verified combat footage, statements from on-the-ground commanders, and official General Staff reports that directly address and refute RF disinformation, targeting both domestic and international audiences, including leveraging information from captured RF personnel (including the detailed casualty list and insights from recently captured soldiers). Rapidly investigate and refute RF atrocity claims (e.g., attacking ambulance, civilian killing by FPV drone) with clear evidence or credible denials. Address the wounded soldier's concerns transparently to maintain public and military morale.

4. Prioritized Offensive Actions Against RF Rail Logistics:

   • Recommendation: Intensify deep strike and sabotage operations against RF railway infrastructure supporting frontline operations, particularly in border regions and occupied territories, in response to RF targeting of Ukrainian railways.
   • Action: GUR and SSO are to prioritize targets such as railway bridges, major switching yards, locomotive depots, and repair facilities to disrupt RF's ability to sustain its forces and compensate for Ukrainian rail damage.

5. Enhanced Air Defense for Critical Railway Infrastructure & Drone Cooperation:

   • Recommendation: Reallocate mobile air defense assets to better protect critical railway junctions, depots, and energy substations that power the railway network. Immediately operationalize the drone cooperation agreement with Poland to enhance early warning and interception capabilities. Maintain high alert for UAV threats, especially over Kyiv.
   • Action: UAF Air Force and ground forces with organic air defense assets are to coordinate to establish overlapping coverage for key railway targets, anticipating future RF strikes, and deploying new interceptor drone technology where feasible. Integrate Polish drone observation data into UAF air defense networks without delay. Integrate any air defense capabilities provided by the PURL package immediately.

6. Address Internal Personnel Support and Morale:

   • Recommendation: UAF Command, working with the newly appointed Military Ombudsman, should immediately review and address the concerns regarding soldier pay, support for wounded personnel, and general welfare. Review and adjust compensation packages to remain competitive with the substantial financial incentives offered by RF.
   • Action: Implement transparent communication channels for soldiers to voice grievances, and initiate rapid reviews of compensation policies and support services to ensure fair treatment and maintain high morale, particularly among those serving on the front lines and those recovering from injuries.

7. Monitor North Korean Involvement:

   • Recommendation: Closely monitor any further public or intelligence reports regarding Russia's potential utilization of North Korean military or paramilitary personnel for border security or other roles.
   • Action: Direct HUMINT and SIGINT assets to collect on this potential development. Prepare contingency plans for dealing with such foreign military elements if deployed.

//END REPORT//