Archived operational intelligence briefing
RF forces maintain multi-axis pressure across the Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia axes. Heavy reciprocal battles are reported in Sumy Oblast. RF sources claim continued fierce fighting on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, where UAF is reportedly committing new groups of fighters from other axes to stabilize the situation. This indicates sustained, high-intensity combat in this critical sector and UAF commitment to holding the line.
RF claims unverified advances in Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, and occupation of the medical college area in Kupiansk. RF reports military control and fortifications on the Velikoburlukskoye direction (Kharkiv Oblast). RF claims advance of 5km on the Gulyaipole direction, entering Novoivanivka, and claims new positions south of Novoivanivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF claims full control of Serebryansky forestry, which, if verified, would represent a significant RF territorial gain on the Lyman direction. Satellite imagery and video from UAF sources show smoke plumes and heavy fighting in Serebryansky forestry and Yampil, crucial for verification. Drone footage shows destroyed UAF equipment at a road junction between Krasnoarmeysk and Dimitrov, indicating continued RF pressure and successful engagements on that axis. RF provides map-based updates on Russian military advances, specifically detailing operations around Konstantinovka and related settlements, highlighting offensive actions towards Chasov Yar, Kleban-Byk Reservoir, and the outskirts of Konstantinovka. RF sources amplify Deep State's report that RF forces are threatening to encircle UAF forces in the Serebryansky forestry area, which RF claims is the last UAF-controlled territory in LNR. RF sources further claim RF has met UAF 'suicide attacks' near Tetkino, Kursk, implying UAF cross-border activity. RF posted tactical maps detailing claimed changes in battlefield geometry over the past 24 hours, indicating ongoing RF assessment of territorial control and operational advances, particularly around Kupiansk. RF reports that UAF complains about RF forces continuing to advance in Kupiansk, suggesting sustained RF pressure on this axis. Colonelcassad reports "hysteria" from a Ukrainian military blogger regarding events in Kupiansk's urban quarters, which RF frames as a sign of successful RF penetration and UAF disorganization. Операция Z amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" claims of "chaos and disorganization" and a "failed defense" in Kupiansk based on UAF military sources. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА posts video displaying dynamic combat engagements in a forest environment, with soldiers using camouflage, advancing on fortified enemy positions, approaching trenches and dugouts, and engaging targets with firearms. Explosions and smoke indicate active fighting. UAF's ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports map has been updated, indicating fluid battlefield geometry, particularly on critical sectors. Старше Эдды posts graphic video of a residential area under attack, with multiple buildings on fire and extensive smoke plumes, suggesting recent heavy strikes in an urban environment. This footage, presented with highly inflammatory anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, indicates RF is actively documenting damage to areas they likely consider Ukrainian-controlled. Colonelcassad posts drone footage from the Kupiansk direction, showing alleged destruction of a Ukrainian militant crossing, enemy transport, and armored vehicles with supplies, confirming active drone-supported offensive operations and significant damage to UAF assets. Colonelcassad posts video of RF 'Vostok' Group operators detecting and destroying heavy hexacopters attempting to drop munitions on RF positions in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Colonelcassad posts map messages showing the frontline in Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) and its suburbs, indicating RF operational assessment of control. New RF map updates indicate continued claims of advances on multiple axes. (Confidence: HIGH - RF claims) Kotsnews posts video claiming "liberation of Novonikolaevka" with Russian assault troops detailing mine clearing and encountering reinforced positions. This indicates continued localized RF ground advances and tactical challenges in breaching UAF defenses. (Confidence: MEDIUM - RF claims) Z комитет + карта СВО posts map updates for #Melovoye, indicating continued RF assessment of territorial control. (Confidence: HIGH - RF claims) Kadyrov_95 posts video claiming soldiers of the 270th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Akhmat-Caucasus" successfully shelled and destroyed enemy positions in the Malaya Tokmachka area of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This indicates continued RF artillery engagement and claimed successes, particularly involving Chechen-aligned units. (Confidence: MEDIUM - RF claims) ТАСС posts video claiming Tornado-S MLRS crews of the Southern Group of Forces destroyed three temporary deployment points of a UAF brigade in Konstantinovka, DPR. The video contains aerial footage of explosions hitting buildings. This indicates continued RF long-range precision strikes against UAF targets. (Confidence: MEDIUM - RF claims, UAF property) Военкор Котенок posts photo messages claiming that in Oleshky, after Ukrainian nationalists attacked an Orthodox church, a Red Cross ambulance on its way to a call was hit by UAF fire. This is an RF IO claim to discredit UAF and likely a false flag/misattribution of damage. (Confidence: LOW - RF claim, unverified, highly suspicious) Colonelcassad posts drone footage claiming that on the Krasnolimansky direction, a "neo-Nazi" held a woman and child hostage, and a UAF FPV drone operator deliberately killed her. This is a highly inflammatory RF IO narrative, designed to demonize UAF, and is unverified. (Confidence: LOW - RF claim, unverified, highly suspicious) Colonelcassad posts photo messages claiming RF forces continue their advance in Kharkiv Oblast and have "liberated" Otradnoye. (Confidence: MEDIUM - RF claims, unverified)
UAF has confirmed the liberation of Pankivka, Donetsk Oblast, and Zarichne. UAF General Staff reports clashes yesterday near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Mykolayivka, Stupochky and Bila Hora on the Kramatorsk direction. Clashes were also reported near Scherbynivka, Katerynivka, Ivanopillya, Pleschiyivka, Rusyn Yar, and Poltavka on the Toretsk direction. On the Pokrovsk direction, clashes occurred near Volodymyrivka, Zapovidne, Novoekonomichne, Shevchenko, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne, Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Vilne, Chervonyi Lyman, Myrnohrad, Rodynske, Promin, Zvirove, Molodetske, Novopidhorodne, Novopavlivka, and Filiya. On the Novopavlivka direction, clashes were near Yalta, Shevchenko, Komyshuvakha, Vorone, Ternove, Novoivanivka, Filiya, Ivanivka, Iskra, Sichneve, Olhivske, and Poltavka. On the Orikhiv direction, clashes were near Kamyanske and towards Novodanylivka. UAF repelled 4 Russian army assaults on the Kherson direction and 7 Russian army assaults on the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. UAF reports eliminating a Russian breakthrough near Pokrovsk with ongoing cleanup operations. Drone footage from the 'Battle for Pokrovsk,' displays successful strikes against RF targets including an APC/IFV, 'Baba Yaga' drone, antenna tower, 'Paladin' SAU, and a 'Hummer,' providing visual evidence of continued UAF effectiveness in this sector. UAF General Staff claims over 305,000 RF personnel neutralized since the start of the year. UAF "Pion" (2S7 Pion 203mm self-propelled artillery) is operating on the Donetsk direction, indicating continued UAF heavy artillery engagement in that sector. Video depicts a Ukrainian artillery crew operating a 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer in a wooded area, demonstrating UAF artillery capabilities. UAF Southern Defense Forces (Сили оборони Півдня України) reports operational information as of 08:00 on 17.09.2025. FPV drone footage of night combat operations by the 6th Battalion of the Azov Brigade shows thermal imagery of strikes on a wooded area, indicating continued UAF tactical drone effectiveness. UAF General Staff provides updated operational information as of 16:00 17.09.2025, detailing continued clashes and defensive actions across various axes. Kharkiv ODA Head, Oleg Synegubov, reports on the operational situation in Kharkiv Oblast, discussing shelling, attacks on populated areas, infrastructure, and educational institutions, with casualties and civilian evacuation efforts. He also mentions successful counter-actions against RF advances. UAF forces have flooded a gas pipe in Kupiansk, attempting to thwart RF infiltration, and deny RF claims of fighting in the city center. UAF General Staff provides operational information as of 22:00 17.09.2025. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts photo messages regarding mobility and crew protection for mission execution (06:40:37Z). This indicates UAF is highlighting key tactical factors. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the 425th Regiment "Skelya" captured 17 Russian occupiers in a week (06:46:42Z). This is a significant tactical success for UAF. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports HIMARS striking a large concentration of Russian moto-assault troops on the Kramatorsk direction (06:56:31Z). This indicates successful UAF long-range precision strikes against RF concentrations. UAF 15th Separate Artillery Reconnaissance Brigade "Black Forest" successfully destroyed an RF Buk-M2 SAM system. Video evidence shows the Buk-M2 system, identified with an estimated cost of $25 million, being directly hit and engulfed in flames. This is a significant UAF counter-battery success against a high-value RF air defense asset. UAF Special Operations Forces (SSO) have reportedly struck the Volgograd Oil Refinery, potentially halting its operations. This is a significant UAF deep strike against critical RF energy infrastructure. UAF General Staff continues to report on heavy fighting across various axes, confirming a fluid but actively defended frontline. (Confidence: HIGH) ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts video claiming six accurate strikes by the "STRIKS" unit on the Southern Slobozhansky direction, showing drone footage of explosions on enemy positions, trenches, and an armored personnel carrier. This confirms continued UAF tactical successes in neutralizing RF ground assets. (Confidence: HIGH) Олександр Вілкул posts photo messages of the 77th Airmobile Brigade on the front, showcasing soldiers in uniform with military vehicles (including a Humvee and possibly a pickup truck with a mounted weapon). This visually confirms UAF personnel presence and equipment, likely for morale boosting and showing operational readiness. (Confidence: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts video of the opening of a memorial alley in Zaporizhzhia for fallen heroes. This is a UAF IO effort to boost morale and commemorate sacrifices. (Confidence: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ posts drone footage showing Ukrainian forces identifying and striking a Russian artillery position and communication antenna in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued UAF tactical successes and precision targeting against RF assets. (Confidence: HIGH) Военкор Котенок posts video showing Ukrainian flags, then Russian flags, and soldiers in combat, with a final segment showing a fallen soldier with a cat, overlaid with Ukrainian flags and text suggesting sacrifice. This is UAF IO material, possibly from a combat zone. (Confidence: HIGH) Підрозділ Shadow posts drone footage of aerial strikes on what appear to be RF military positions, with multiple impacts and explosions observed. This confirms continued UAF drone strike capabilities. (Confidence: HIGH)
Air defenses remain activated across Ukraine due to persistent RF drone and missile activity. UAF deep strikes continue against industrial and logistical targets within RF territory. RF reports widespread drone attacks across Russia. STERNENKO reports that drones attacked "Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat" in Bashkortostan. ASTRA and the Governor of Bashkortostan confirm the drone attack on the petrochemical complex in Salavat (Bashkiria), with explosions reported. This is a confirmed UAF deep strike on critical RF energy infrastructure. Народная милиция ДНР posts video claiming the destruction of a UAF D-30 howitzer in the Mykolaypillya area. (Confidence: MEDIUM) This indicates continued reciprocal artillery engagements. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts video messages claiming RF strikes on military targets in Kyiv Oblast, showing nighttime explosions and fires. This indicates continued RF aerial activity against critical UAF infrastructure or military assets. (Confidence: MEDIUM - RF claims) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports that three OMON officers in Oryol Oblast were trying to demilitarize railway tracks but detonated a mine, suggesting RF internal security forces are conducting demining operations in border areas and suffering casualties. (Confidence: MEDIUM - UAF-affiliated source) Colonelcassad posts video showing a large explosion and subsequent fire at night in the Kyiv area, claiming it as a "night arrival" (strike). This indicates continued RF aerial activity against critical UAF infrastructure or military assets. (Confidence: MEDIUM - RF claims) NEW: НгП раZVедка posts video showing an explosion in Kyiv at night, with sarcastic text about a "warehouse of children's toys and lard in chocolate" exploding. This is RF IO, likely related to the Kyiv logistics hub fire. (Confidence: LOW - RF IO)
Current Conditions: Generally clear and favorable for air operations across most of Ukraine. Rapidly changing weather for Kyiv tomorrow, potentially impacting operations. Cold front moving into Carpathians with temperatures dropping to -2°C. Snow is possible in Ukraine soon.
Geomagnetic Storm: The strongest geomagnetic storm in 3 months (G3) continues to impact satellite communications, GPS, and other electronic systems for both sides.
UAV/Missile Threat (OVERNIGHT & ONGOING - UPDATED): RF launched three S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles, one Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile, and 75 drones (over 40 of them Shaheds) overnight against Ukraine. 48 RF UAVs were shot down/suppressed. This indicates a lower volume of successful interceptions but also a smaller attack wave. Persistent RF UAV threats affect Sumy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Odesa, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Poltava Oblasts. Zaporizhzhia experienced at least TEN strikes, killing one person and injuring 20, including children in critical but stable condition, causing power outages and significant damage to a logistics convoy and a building. Sumy Oblast suffered two drone impacts overnight, causing power outages and a warehouse fire. RF dropped three FAB-250 glide bombs on the center of Kramatorsk, injuring 19 people. UAF Air Force warns of guided aerial bomb launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Nizhyn suffered the "most massive strike from the beginning of the war" with dozens of drones, causing damage to critical infrastructure and injuring three rescuers. Explosions confirmed in Sumy, with two drone impacts and power outages. One strike hit a warehouse building, causing a fire. Yampil is reported to be burning from drone footage. A large fire at a logistics center near Kyiv has been liquidated after repeated morning attacks, following drone impacts and damage to an "Epicenter" building in Kyiv Oblast. UAF Air Force warns of several UAV groups past Derhachi, heading towards Kharkiv, indicating continued RF drone activity in the region. UAF Air Defense reports the lifting of the air raid alarm in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, but the threat remains active elsewhere. RF sources report "powerful explosions in Balakliia (Kharkiv Oblast)" with videos of large smoke plumes, indicating continued RF aerial/artillery strikes on Kharkiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a group of UAVs (mopeds) heading towards Nizhyn, Chernihiv Oblast, indicating continued aerial threats to northern regions. Videos show plumes of dark smoke rising from Balakliia, Kharkiv Oblast, indicating significant strikes on urban areas. Videos confirm the large fire at the Kyiv logistics hub following night drone attacks. UAF Air Force reports the lifting of the ballistic missile threat. New RF drone group detections for Chernihiv Oblast towards Baturyn and renewed explosions in Kropyvnytskyi confirm continued aerial threats to central and northern Ukraine. A new air alarm was declared in Kyiv but has since been lifted. New RF drone detected in Chernihiv Oblast towards Smila. Critical infrastructure hit by RF UAVs in Cherkasy Oblast. Large fire engulfing a multi-story building in Kyiv reported, potentially from an RF air/missile strike. UAF Air Force reports a UAV in the Pavlohrad district of Dnipropetrovsk. UAF Air Force reports КАБы (Guided Aerial Bombs) on Kherson Oblast. A specific КАБ launch on Poniatiivka/Inhulets is reported. RF strike on critical infrastructure in Cherkasy Oblast. Power outages and train delays in Kirovohrad due to energy infrastructure damage. RF again attacked railway infrastructure overnight, causing train delays in Dnipro direction. Video of powerful strike on transformer station in Balakliia. RF FPV drone strike on a minibus in Vasylivsky district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. New RF strikes on railway substations overnight. Photo messages of rescuers liquidating the consequences of a drone attack in Kirovohrad Oblast. Enemy strikes on infrastructure in Kirovohrad Oblast. Photo messages confirming explosions in Kirovohrad and Cherkasy Oblasts overnight. A fire at an enterprise in Poltava district due to UAV debris overnight. Enemy reconnaissance UAV in Zaporizhzhia area, with air defense engaged. Enemy attack UAV in Kramatorsk in Donetsk Oblast, indicating persistent localized aerial threats. A fire on the roof of a residential building in Shevchenkivskyi district, Kyiv, covering 1500 sq. m., likely due to recent aerial attacks, represents a significant civilian impact. RF again launched a complex strike on railway infrastructure, indicating continued targeting of critical civilian-military dual-use infrastructure. UAF Air Force reports КАБы (Guided Aerial Bombs) heading towards Sumy Oblast, indicating continued air-launched guided munition threat. Photo messages and immediate assessment of a nighttime fire at a multi-story building in Kyiv, actively being fought by State Emergency Service (ДСНС), likely a consequence of recent aerial attacks. UAF Air Force reports КАБы (Guided Aerial Bombs) heading towards Kharkiv Oblast from the east. UAF Air Force reports КАБы (Guided Aerial Bombs) heading towards Donetsk Oblast. At least five strong explosions heard in Petrovsky district of Donetsk. This indicates continued shelling in occupied territories. Explosions and smoke plumes in occupied Donetsk, with accompanying commentary suggesting an ammunition depot fire. This indicates successful UAF targeting of an RF military logistics/storage facility. UAF Air Force warns of an aviation munition threat in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykove district). This indicates ongoing immediate threat from RF tactical aviation, likely utilizing guided aerial bombs (КАБ). Videos captioned "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine September 16 - September 17, 2025," show thick smoke plumes and an urban impact. One video shows "PROKURATURA UKRAINY" watermark, suggesting official documentation of strikes, likely related to civilian infrastructure damage or war crime investigation. UAF Air Force reports new launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aviation on the border of Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. UAF Air Force warns of a high-speed target heading towards Kharkiv. UAF Air Force warns of attack UAV danger in Nikopol district. UAF Air Force reports attack UAVs in Synelnykove, Novgorod-Siversky districts, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk Oblasts, posing a threat to citizens. Attack UAVs also reported heading towards Kryvyi Rih district. UAF Air Force reports a UAV in Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Snovsk from the northeast. UAF Air Force reports a UAV in Sumy Oblast on a course towards Konotop. New groups of RF UAVs (mopeds) in eastern Kharkiv Oblast, heading west. UAVs heading towards Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro, and Kharkiv, indicating continued widespread aerial threats. Fires in Dnipro district due to UAV attack, with consequences being clarified. An RF drone strike on a gas station (АЗС) in Poltava district, causing a fire and one casualty. Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs (КАБ) on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Сливочный каприз posts drone footage showing a rural/semi-urban area subjected to conflict, with numerous damaged/destroyed buildings and power lines, suggesting widespread destruction from recent strikes. РБК-Україна reports explosions in Konotop on the background of a drone attack, citing the city mayor. Север.Реалии reports a Russian army strike on a gas station in Poltava Oblast injured six people (06:53:01Z). This confirms civilian casualties and impact on critical infrastructure. Операция Z reports powerful strikes on enemy targets in Kyiv Oblast overnight (07:29:00Z). STERNENKO posts video showing a significant smoke plume over a residential area, likely from an explosion or large fire. STERNENKO posts video showing a large explosion in an urban/semi-urban environment. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of a large, dense smoke plume rising from an urban environment, suggesting a significant incident. РБК-Україна and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report that Ukrainian UAVs attacked the "Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat" petrochemical complex in Bashkortostan, over 1300km from the border. Videos show large plumes of smoke and fire. This is a confirmed, significant UAF deep strike on critical RF energy infrastructure. Explosions reported in Kharkiv, potentially outside the city. (Confidence: HIGH) Colonelcassad posts animated map summarizing RF strikes on Ukraine from 17-18 September 2025, detailing flight paths and impact areas of drones (Geran) and missiles (UMPK, OTRK). This confirms continued, planned multi-vector aerial campaigns by RF. (Confidence: HIGH) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts videos of a large industrial fire producing a massive column of dark smoke, captioned "Republic of Bashkortostan, swamps." This corroborates the UAF deep strike on the Salavat petrochemical complex and confirms the significant damage. (Confidence: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports "All clear," indicating the lifting of an air raid alarm in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (Confidence: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a new UAV (moped) heading towards Nizhyn, Chernihiv Oblast. This indicates continued RF drone incursions in Northern Ukraine. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV (moped) heading towards Kramatorsk in Donetsk Oblast. This indicates continued RF drone incursions in Eastern Ukraine. (Confidence: HIGH)
RF Environmental/Domestic Incident: Wildfires spreading to residential homes in Rostov Oblast. Firefighters in Crimea liquidating a dry vegetation fire. A gas-air mixture explosion in Angarsk, Irkutsk Oblast, has caused one fatality and necessitated a state of emergency, with 5 casualties. A large fire is reported on the roof of a building with commercial stalls in Irkutsk, further stressing RF emergency services. Elbrus cable car accident further stressed domestic emergency services. The Holy Trinity Church in Sudzha (Kursk Oblast) was robbed and damaged from shelling. Multiple explosions in Kursk. A series of claps occurred near administrative buildings in Schitovaya village, Vladivostok. A series of explosions also occurred in Vladivostok this morning. FSB detained a woman in Novosibirsk for involvement in a sabotage act on the Trans-Siberian Railway in Trans-Baikal Krai. RF Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov stated that the US is not yet ready to completely abandon Russian uranium. An all-terrain vehicle with 9 passengers fell into a lake in Transbaikalia, with 5 presumed drowned. The arrest of the Elbrus cable car director. A fire at Morozovsk airfield in Rostov Oblast. Temporary internet outage in Kamchatka. MAK published final words of An-24 pilots crashed in Amur Oblast, indicating ongoing domestic aviation incidents. The State Duma committee approved a bill on using narcotics for service dog training, an internal RF policy development. Rospatent temporarily refused Renault Group registration of "Reno" trademark in Russia, along with over 30 other countries, indicating ongoing economic isolation and internal bureaucratic issues. Severe flooding in Makhachkala, Dagestan, due to heavy rains. This is a domestic environmental event, which could strain local emergency services. Rescuers, police, and emergency services are searching for a tourist missing since September 1st in "Ergaki" natural park, Krasnoyarsk Krai. This confirms ongoing domestic emergency situations, diverting resources from military support. Rescuers have discovered the location of the sunken all-terrain vehicle in Transbaikalia and are extracting bodies. This confirms an ongoing domestic emergency, likely resulting in multiple fatalities, continuing to strain RF emergency services. A woman on a car killed a bear cub in Sochi. A video shows the exhumation of what appears to be a soldier's body in Donbas. This indicates RF is conducting either war dead recovery or forensics. Two people died and six were injured in a bus accident in Vladimir Oblast, indicating continued domestic incidents requiring emergency services. TASS reports that an online advertisement for selling a giraffe into private hands disappeared after a court ruling, but offers for two calves remain. TASS reports the death of ballet master Yuri Papko at 86, indicating domestic normalcy reporting. Mash на Донбассе posts video claiming residents of Kirovskoye (occupied Donetsk) are not surprised by trash near their homes, suggesting local governance failures or social decay in occupied areas, likely for RF IO to deflect blame. Игорь Артамонов posts video about doctors saving an extremely low birth weight baby in a perinatal center, promoting positive domestic healthcare narratives. Военкор Котенок posts video of a "positive footage from Chechnya" showing a luxury wedding convoy worth "about a billion," indicating an RF IO effort to project normalcy, wealth, and stability in a volatile region, potentially as a distraction from military news. Новости Москвы reports a person falling onto subway tracks at "Ploshchad Revolyutsii" station, but survived, indicating a civilian accident. Новости Москвы posts video of a moose crossing a highway at night, highlighting a civilian road hazard. ТАСС reports former Vologda head Yevgeny Shulepov, accused of corruption, has died. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts video of exhumation of a soldier's body in Donbas. This indicates RF is conducting either war dead recovery or forensics, or UAF is documenting war crimes. ТАСС reports rescuers are working to extract an all-terrain vehicle from the shore (06:44:01Z), which appears to be a submerged military vehicle from the accompanying text. This indicates an ongoing domestic recovery effort, possibly military equipment. TASS reports the heating season has begun in 20 regions of Russia. This is a routine seasonal domestic development, indicating normalcy. "Moskvarium" in Moscow has new Gavial crocodiles, a domestic normalcy report. (Confidence: HIGH) ТАСС reports former Vologda head Yevgeny Shulepov died in a hospital, not pre-trial detention, providing clarity on a domestic incident. (Confidence: HIGH) Новости Москвы posts video of MinFin head stating "Muscovites can drink a glass of wine or beer for lunch," framed as a commentary on productivity. This is domestic IO, not directly military. (Confidence: HIGH) ТАСС reports Deputy Finance Minister Kadochnikov expects about 50 billion rubles of regional debts to be written off by the end of the year, indicating RF efforts to manage internal financial stability. (Confidence: HIGH) ТАСС reports that the date for Putin's address to the Federal Assembly has not yet been set, according to Peskov. This is a routine domestic political report. (Confidence: HIGH) ТАСС reports Peskov confirmed Putin will meet with faction leaders today. This is a routine domestic political report. (Confidence: HIGH) ТАСС reports on a Russian citizen saving a Chinese tourist in Hong Kong. This is a positive domestic/foreign relations IO narrative, not directly military. (Confidence: HIGH) ASTRA reports Dmitry Kozak, Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration, resigned "at his own request," confirmed by Peskov. This is a significant internal political development in RF. (Confidence: HIGH) ТАСС reports Peskov discussed Dmitry Kozakov's resignation. (Confidence: HIGH) ТАСС reports the Ministry of Finance is considering a mechanism to reduce the rate on "Family Mortgages" with an increase in the number of children in the family. This is a domestic social policy initiative. (Confidence: HIGH) ТАСС reports that Russia's representation in Ramallah helped Russians evacuate from Gaza. This is a routine domestic/foreign policy report. (Confidence: HIGH) ТАСС reports new restrictions for gold exports for individuals from Russia through the Customs Union, limited to 100 grams in monetary bars. This indicates RF efforts to control capital flight and currency stability. (Confidence: HIGH) Новости Москвы reports a check of 20 protein brands found 11 samples with protein content not matching the label. This is a domestic consumer report, not military. (Confidence: HIGH) ТАСС reports visas for journalists accompanying Lavrov to the UN General Assembly are limited to a 25-mile radius from NYC, indicating US restrictions on RF diplomatic/media presence. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: ТАСС reports Deputy Chairman of the Russian Government Marat Khusnullin states there are no major risks regarding the postponement of housing construction deadlines in Russia. This is a domestic normalcy report. (Confidence: HIGH)
RF Internal Security: In St. Petersburg, the FSB uncovered mediation in bribes for hospitalization from the SMO zone. In LNR, law enforcement found almost two kilograms of salts in vehicle tires, preventing drug trafficking from Moscow Oblast. A teenager was detained in Vologda for allegedly swearing allegiance to a Ukrainian "terrorist organization." Moscow Prosecutor's Office approved charges against a blogger for fraud. A Russian-Cypriot citizen, owner of the vessel that exploded in Beirut in 2020, was detained in Bulgaria. FSB detained suspects who promised SMO participants release from service for 3.5 million rubles due to injury, highlighting ongoing corruption within RF military-related processes. A criminal case against a former Playboy editor-in-chief was suspended due to his deployment to the war. A drone danger warning for Bryansk Oblast, indicating continued internal security concerns from UAV activity. A warning about remote scams issued in Khabarovsk Krai, indicating persistent domestic cyber/information security concerns. A decrease in illegally employed workers, an RF domestic IO point. Low wage arrears, indicating domestic IO to project economic stability. Yury Dud*, a prominent Russian journalist, denies guilt in a criminal case regarding evading foreign agent duties, indicating continued internal security and media control efforts. A co-conspirator of ex-Deputy Minister of Energy Mochalnikov, Andrei Moiseenko, fully admitted guilt in a judicial proceeding, indicating ongoing domestic legal processes. RF air defense destroyed UAVs in three districts of Rostov Oblast, indicating active internal security measures against perceived UAV threats. The lifting of the drone danger alert, suggesting a temporary de-escalation of internal threats. An arrest in Vladivostok for illegal border crossing, highlighting continued internal security focus. Former Dynamo Kyiv goalkeeper Rudko attempted to cross the Ukraine-Moldova border, reinforcing RF domestic security concerns. The arrest of a suspect for intentional infliction of moderate bodily harm in Khabarovsk, indicating continued domestic law enforcement activity. Rada deputy Artem Dmitruk claiming he was forced to flee Ukraine after threats to his family due to fighting Zelenskyy's regime, a continued RF IO point. Video of security forces conducting searches of journalists and activists in Ufa this morning, demonstrating continued internal security actions against perceived dissent. State prosecution seeks a 600,000 ruble fine for Mikhail Volkov for financing an extremist organization, indicating ongoing legal actions against political opponents. FSB detained an African national in Astrakhan for espionage for Ukrainian military intelligence, indicating active RF counter-intelligence operations against perceived UAF infiltration. Further amplification of the detention of an African national for espionage for Ukrainian military intelligence. A French cyclist detained in Vladivostok is in Ussuriysk pre-trial detention, indicating ongoing RF internal security actions against foreign nationals. A conviction for drug trafficking in Komsomolsk-on-Amur, indicating routine domestic law enforcement operations. A request to check Rada Russkikh for involvement in drug and murder propaganda. This indicates continued RF internal security measures and control over information and public figures. Yulia Navalnaya claims Alexei Navalny was poisoned in prison. This is a significant internal political event in RF, likely requiring increased internal security and IO management. A Russian woman sentenced in Belarus for involvement with independent media (Север.Реалии 09:42:13Z, ASTRA 10:33:31Z). Former Ukrainian prisoners recount torture in Mordovian IK-10. A Perm resident was fined 20,000 rubles for insulting a known acquaintance. This indicates domestic legal processes for minor offenses. A listening device (with SIM and memory card) was discovered in the office of Lviv Mayor Sadovyi, suggesting a sophisticated intelligence operation targeting Ukrainian officials. TASS reports that US authorities claim palladium imports from RF harm American producers, potentially leading to US tariffs. Север.Реалии reports that recruited billionaire fraudster Jan Marsalek has settled in Moscow and is involved in "special operations" in Ukraine, indicating potential high-level RF intelligence involvement. TASS reports electronic documents can be signed via "Госключ" and Max apps from September 26, promoting domestic digital infrastructure and potential state control. Colonelcassad posts video message claiming a Crimean resident received 14 years in a strict regime colony for preparing a terrorist act. The video shows an individual recounting being detained by Ukrainian special services and tasked with photographing military equipment and planting a bomb, before leaving Kryvyi Rih. This is RF IO intended to highlight internal security successes and demonize Ukrainian intelligence. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА posts video captioned "Escape failed!", showing RF soldiers apprehending an individual. ASTRA reports that approximately 90 Ukrainians, subject to deportation, are being held in Smolensk Oblast as an "exchange reserve," with some expressing willingness to stay in Russia or join the SMO. Colonelcassad reports a 19-year-old extremist sentenced in St. Petersburg for preparing high treason and participation in a terrorist organization. TASS reports Tyler James Robinson, accused in the Charlie Kirk murder, agreed to surrender to law enforcement, fearing he might be shot during detention. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video of apprehended individuals allegedly involved in an assassination plot in St. Petersburg, including supposed confessions. This is a key RF counter-intelligence and IO narrative. Kotsnews also posts a related video, theatricalizing the event. Colonelcassad posts video of "ukragents" confessing to joining a terrorist organization (06:41:49Z). This reinforces RF claims of Ukrainian terrorism and internal security threats. Басурин о главном posts multiple videos detailing FSB thwarting a terrorist attack in St. Petersburg, showing detentions, alleged confessions, and devices (06:59:02Z). This is a significant RF counter-intelligence and IO effort. TASS reports an ex-deputy of the Kursk Regional Duma, accused of embezzlement, wants to volunteer for the SMO (07:11:01Z), which suggests a method for RF to replenish personnel or offer reduced sentences. Colonelcassad reports FSB prevented an assassination attempt on the head of a defense enterprise in St. Petersburg (07:24:04Z), reinforcing the RF internal security narrative. TASS reports suspects in providing financial services to Ukrainian call centers were detained (07:25:08Z). ASTRA reports that former Kursk Regional Duma deputy Vasilyev, accused of embezzlement, wants to volunteer for the war. This highlights RF's efforts to recruit even those with criminal charges. ТАСС reports on the appointment of Krasnov as the head of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation and Gutsan as Prosecutor General. These are routine RF political/judicial appointments, indicative of internal governance. ASTRA reports that Putin has proposed Alexander Gutsan as the candidate for Prosecutor General. This is a routine RF political appointment. Alex Parker Returns reports that an ethnographer, held in an Afghan prison, claims the Taliban consider Russians as enemies, citing harsh interrogations and historical grievances. (Confidence: MEDIUM) This indicates potential foreign policy challenges and counter-IO narratives for RF. The Russian Investigative Committee has requested that Baza editor-in-chief Trifonov be transferred from pre-trial detention to house arrest. (Confidence: HIGH) Video of an RF Orthodox priest, Ierey Georgy Shabalov, leaving his Moscow service to be with soldiers on the front, indicating efforts to boost morale and religious support for RF forces. (Confidence: HIGH) ASTRA reports a school security guard in St. Petersburg was sentenced to 5 years for reposting content about Bucha. This confirms continued severe repression of dissent and information control in Russia, with direct implications for civilian freedom of speech. (Confidence: HIGH) МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports the death of an 18-year-old son of a mobilized soldier, indicating potential RF ground losses and the human cost of the conflict on RF families. (Confidence: MEDIUM) Mash на Донбассе reports an LNR energy inspector demanded 50k from a commercial entity for illegal connection. This indicates continued corruption in occupied territories under RF control. (Confidence: HIGH) Военкор Котенок posts video of FSB thwarting a terrorist attack against the head of a Russian defense enterprise. This is a continued RF IO narrative to highlight internal security successes and demonize Ukrainian intelligence activities. (Confidence: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video alleging FSB prevented a terrorist attack in St. Petersburg against the head of a defense enterprise, featuring an interrogation of a blurred individual. This reinforces the RF narrative of internal security successes and alleged Ukrainian terrorist activity. (Confidence: HIGH - RF claims) Colonelcassad reports that Colombian mercenaries organized a criminal business in Ukraine, involving drug trafficking, mercenary activities, and drone/explosive component supplies. This is an RF IO effort to discredit foreign fighters in Ukraine and link the conflict to organized crime. (Confidence: LOW - RF claims, unverified) Fighterbomber reports State Duma Deputy Nikolai Arefyev proposed disconnecting Russians from the internet for a week or at least on weekends. This indicates potential RF consideration of extreme information control measures. (Confidence: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports the SBU detained an RF agent attempting to infiltrate Ukrainian military units to adjust shelling. This indicates continued RF attempts at intelligence gathering and targeting UAF, and successful UAF counter-intelligence. (Confidence: HIGH) ASTRA reports that an stepfather who repeatedly raped his stepdaughter in Krasnoyarsk Krai was offered to sign a contract and go to war instead of punishment, and he agreed. This highlights RF's controversial recruitment practices. (Confidence: HIGH) Рыбарь posts a photo message captioned "Another 'comrade' expelled," depicting a document for the expulsion of a person from Russia. This indicates continued RF internal security measures, possibly related to foreign nationals or undesirables. (Confidence: HIGH) Басурин о главном posts a video on historical precedents for punishing Nazism, implying RF's ongoing justification for the conflict. (Confidence: HIGH - RF IO) NEW: ASTRA reports the detention of individuals in Britain suspected of spying for Russia. This indicates continued RF espionage activity and successful counter-intelligence by Western allies. (Confidence: HIGH)
Drone Incident (Poland): A drone was neutralized over Polish government buildings in Warsaw, with two Belarusian citizens detained. РБК-Україна reports that a Russian drone that invaded Lithuania was launched from Belarus. Poland is deporting a Ukrainian citizen who launched a drone over government buildings in Warsaw. This confirms the nationality of the perpetrator and indicates a different narrative than RF IO. Alex Parker Returns confirms the Ukrainian citizen is 21 years old, will be fined 1000 Euros, and banned from Poland/Schengen for 5 years, while a 17-year-old Belarusian was released as a witness, further detailing the Polish legal response. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Poland is deporting a 21-year-old Ukrainian who flew a drone over Warsaw government quarter. Poland confirmed that a missile, launched from an F-16 fighter jet, hit a residential building in Wyryki village. (Confidence: HIGH - This is a significant and potentially escalating development, though the source of the F-16 or its purpose is not clear from the message itself.)
RF Increase in ARVI Cases: ARVI incidence in RF increased by 63.8% over the week, doubling among schoolchildren. No quarantine measures are needed.
Explosion in Kharkiv (NEW - РБК-Україна 09:54:32Z, 09:59:26Z): An explosion was reported in Kharkiv, with initial reports suggesting it occurred outside the city.
UAF Domestic Crime (NEW - Офіс Генерального прокурора 12:15:12Z): 15 years imprisonment for rape of 12-year-old stepdaughter in Zakarpattia. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the completion of an investigation into the former head of the Odesa TCC & SP, accused of document forgery and obstructing the Armed Forces of Ukraine (07:00:01Z). This highlights ongoing internal anti-corruption efforts. НАБУ declared a Yanukovych associate on a wanted list for large-scale land fraud (РБК-Україна 07:15:01Z), indicating continued UAF efforts against high-level corruption. The Donetsk Regional Prosecutor's Office has initiated an investigation into the possible inaction of social services, which resulted in three children being without proper care for over a year. (Confidence: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора reports uncovering embezzlement of budget funds (including those for children), abuse of office, fraud, illegal logging, drug crimes, and environmental pollution in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This confirms continued UAF efforts against domestic corruption and crime. (Confidence: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the completion of an investigation into a judge from Marinka district court for spreading pro-Russian narratives and denying RF aggression. This indicates continued UAF efforts against collaborators and internal threats. (Confidence: HIGH)
UAF Domestic Incident - TCC (NEW): РБК-Україна reports a drunk TCC employee in Ternopil Oblast caused multiple traffic accidents and a police chase. The Ukrainian State Border Guard Service (DPSU) is transferring data on men who attempted to illegally illegally cross the border to the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCC), indicating enhanced efforts to combat draft evasion. (Confidence: HIGH)
UAF Counter-Intelligence - Lithuania (NEW): Оперативний ЗСУ reports a group of Russian intelligence agents detained in Lithuania, who were planning four terrorist attacks.
RF Domestic Politics - Sports (NEW): ТАСС posts a photo message stating that the issue of Russian participation in the Olympic Games may be discussed at the IOC Executive Board meeting in Milan.
RF Air Travel - Volgaograd (NEW): ТАСС reports temporary flight restrictions at Volgograd airport. UPDATED: TASS reports restrictions lifted. ТАСС reports that restrictions on takeoffs and landings at Orenburg airport have been lifted.
Kyiv Oblast - Warehouse Fire (NEW): RBC-Ukraine reports a warehouse fire in Kyiv Oblast due to an enemy attack.
Kyiv Oblast - Attack (NEW): Оперативний ЗСУ reports RF again attacked Kyiv Oblast.
US Domestic Issue (NEW): РБК-Україна reports a man shot at police during arrest in the US, with casualties. This is likely RF IO material.
RF Civilian Casualty (NEW): ASTRA reports a civilian was killed by a drone attack on a car in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, overnight.
Samara Airport Restrictions (NEW): ASTRA reports temporary flight restrictions at Samara airport.
Railway Infrastructure Damage (NEW): РБК-Україна reports "Ukrzaliznytsia" confirmed damage to several sections of railway in Poltava Oblast due to night shelling. This confirms continued RF targeting of critical railway infrastructure.
Kyiv Oblast Warehouse Fire (NEW): ASTRA reports a warehouse fire in Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast, due to RF drone attack overnight.
Kryvyi Rih Situation (NEW): Олександр Вілкул reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of morning 18.09.25.
RF Internal Security (NEW): TASS reports that in St. Petersburg, FSB prevented an assassination attempt on the head of a defense enterprise by a Ukrainian intelligence network.
RF VDV Training (NEW): Два майора posts video of demanding obstacle course and hand-to-hand combat training, implying it's for internal security forces or elite VDV units.
Eastern Timor Unrest (NEW): Рыбарь notes that Eastern Timor is "flaring up." (Confidence: MEDIUM) This refers to a domestic issue in a distant country, which might be amplified by RF IO to show global instability.
Southern Ukraine Civilian Shelling: Сили оборони Півдня України reports 35 shellings across 13 settlements in Southern Ukraine in the past day, confirming continued RF aggression against civilians.
Kyiv Traffic Accident (NEW): A traffic accident occurred on Stolychne Highway in Kyiv, causing transport difficulties towards the city exit. (Confidence: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ posts photo messages stating the Verkhovna Rada ratified a security cooperation agreement between Ukraine and Greece. This signifies continued UAF diplomatic efforts to secure international support and defense partnerships. (Confidence: HIGH) Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими posts multiple photo messages from a meeting with families of captured and missing servicemen from the 14th Brigade of the NGU. This highlights ongoing efforts to address personnel welfare and maintain morale among families, crucial for sustaining the war effort. (Confidence: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports Australia lowered the price of Russian oil and imposed sanctions against the "shadow fleet." This indicates continued international pressure on RF's energy sector and maritime logistics. (Confidence: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports Ukraine will control humanitarian transport under a new wartime law, indicating UAF efforts to regulate and secure humanitarian aid flows. (Confidence: HIGH) ТАСС reports on protests blocking a defense factory in France. This is an RF IO effort to highlight social unrest in Western countries. (Confidence: HIGH) Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА posts photo messages claiming over 280 hectares of Kharkiv Oblast territory have been demined in a week. This highlights UAF efforts in post-conflict recovery and ensuring civilian safety. (Confidence: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports that Ukraine will provide Poland with access to drone observation systems near its territory. This signifies enhanced bilateral security cooperation and a tactical adaptation to counter RF drone threats. (Confidence: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns posts photo messages with text questioning why Ukraine is mining and fortifying its borders with NATO and Moldova, implying confusion or contradictions. This is RF IO. (Confidence: LOW - RF IO) NEW: Colonelcassad reports a new exchange of fallen soldiers on the border of Ukraine and Belarus. This indicates ongoing efforts to repatriate war dead, but the casualty ratio claimed by Alex Parker Returns (1000 Ukrainian to 24 Russian) is highly likely an RF IO exaggeration. (Confidence: MEDIUM - RF claims on ratio are LOW) NEW: Kadyrov_95 posts video about an international wrestling tournament in Grozny, Chechnya. This is an RF IO effort to project normalcy, stability, and international engagement in Chechnya, diverting from military news. (Confidence: HIGH)
Current Conditions: Generally clear and favorable for air operations across most of Ukraine. Rapidly changing weather for Kyiv tomorrow, potentially impacting operations. Cold front moving into Carpathians with temperatures dropping to -2°C. Snow is possible in Ukraine soon.
Geomagnetic Storm: The strongest geomagnetic storm in 3 months (G3) continues to impact satellite communications, GPS, and other electronic systems for both sides.
UAV/Missile Threat (OVERNIGHT & ONGOING - UPDATED): RF launched three S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles, one Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile, and 75 drones (over 40 of them Shaheds) overnight against Ukraine. 48 RF UAVs were shot down/suppressed. This indicates a lower volume of successful interceptions but also a smaller attack wave. Persistent RF UAV threats affect Sumy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Odesa, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Poltava Oblasts. Zaporizhzhia experienced at least TEN strikes, killing one person and injuring 20, including children in critical but stable condition, causing power outages and significant damage to a logistics convoy and a building. Sumy Oblast suffered two drone impacts overnight, causing power outages and a warehouse fire. RF dropped three FAB-250 glide bombs on the center of Kramatorsk, injuring 19 people. UAF Air Force warns of guided aerial bomb launches by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Nizhyn suffered the "most massive strike from the beginning of the war" with dozens of drones, causing damage to critical infrastructure and injuring three rescuers. Explosions confirmed in Sumy, with two drone impacts and power outages. One strike hit a warehouse building, causing a fire. Yampil is reported to be burning from drone footage. A large fire at a logistics center near Kyiv has been liquidated after repeated morning attacks, following drone impacts and damage to an "Epicenter" building in Kyiv Oblast. UAF Air Force warns of several UAV groups past Derhachi, heading towards Kharkiv, indicating continued RF drone activity in the region. UAF Air Defense reports the lifting of the air raid alarm in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, but the threat remains active elsewhere. RF sources report "powerful explosions in Balakliia (Kharkiv Oblast)" with videos of large smoke plumes, indicating continued RF aerial/artillery strikes on Kharkiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a group of UAVs (mopeds) heading towards Nizhyn, Chernihiv Oblast, indicating continued aerial threats to northern regions. Videos show plumes of dark smoke rising from Balakliia, Kharkiv Oblast, indicating significant strikes on urban areas. Videos confirm the large fire at the Kyiv logistics hub following night drone attacks. UAF Air Force reports the lifting of the ballistic missile threat. New RF drone group detections for Chernihiv Oblast towards Baturyn and renewed explosions in Kropyvnytskyi confirm continued aerial threats to central and northern Ukraine. A new air alarm was declared in Kyiv but has since been lifted. New RF drone detected in Chernihiv Oblast towards Smila. Critical infrastructure hit by RF UAVs in Cherkasy Oblast. Large fire engulfing a multi-story building in Kyiv reported, potentially from an RF air/missile strike. UAF Air Force reports a UAV in the Pavlohrad district of Dnipropetrovsk. UAF Air Force reports КАБы (Guided Aerial Bombs) on Kherson Oblast. A specific КАБ launch on Poniatiivka/Inhulets is reported. RF strike on critical infrastructure in Cherkasy Oblast. Power outages and train delays in Kirovohrad due to energy infrastructure damage. RF again attacked railway infrastructure overnight, causing train delays in Dnipro direction. Video of powerful strike on transformer station in Balakliia. RF FPV drone strike on a minibus in Vasylivsky district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. New RF strikes on railway substations overnight. Photo messages of rescuers liquidating the consequences of a drone attack in Kirovohrad Oblast. Enemy strikes on infrastructure in Kirovohrad Oblast. Photo messages confirming explosions in Kirovohrad and Cherkasy Oblasts overnight. A fire at an enterprise in Poltava district due to UAV debris overnight. Enemy reconnaissance UAV in Zaporizhzhia area, with air defense engaged. Enemy attack UAV in Kramatorsk in Donetsk Oblast, indicating persistent localized aerial threats. A fire on the roof of a residential building in Shevchenkivskyi district, Kyiv, covering 1500 sq. m., likely due to recent aerial attacks, represents a significant civilian impact. RF again launched a complex strike on railway infrastructure, indicating continued targeting of critical civilian-military dual-use infrastructure. UAF Air Force reports КАБы (Guided Aerial Bombs) heading towards Sumy Oblast, indicating continued air-launched guided munition threat. Photo messages and immediate assessment of a nighttime fire at a multi-story building in Kyiv, actively being fought by State Emergency Service (ДСНС), likely a consequence of recent aerial attacks. UAF Air Force reports КАБы (Guided Aerial Bombs) heading towards Kharkiv Oblast from the east. UAF Air Force reports КАБы (Guided Aerial Bombs) heading towards Donetsk Oblast. At least five strong explosions heard in Petrovsky district of Donetsk. This indicates continued shelling in occupied territories. Explosions and smoke plumes in occupied Donetsk, with accompanying commentary suggesting an ammunition depot fire. This indicates successful UAF targeting of an RF military logistics/storage facility. UAF Air Force warns of an aviation munition threat in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykove district). This indicates ongoing immediate threat from RF tactical aviation, likely utilizing guided aerial bombs (КАБ). Videos captioned "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine September 16 - September 17, 2025," show thick smoke plumes and an urban impact. One video shows "PROKURATURA UKRAINY" watermark, suggesting official documentation of strikes, likely related to civilian infrastructure damage or war crime investigation. UAF Air Force reports new launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aviation on the border of Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. UAF Air Force warns of a high-speed target heading towards Kharkiv. UAF Air Force warns of attack UAV danger in Nikopol district. UAF Air Force reports attack UAVs in Synelnykove, Novgorod-Siversky districts, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk Oblasts, posing a threat to citizens. Attack UAVs also reported heading towards Kryvyi Rih district. UAF Air Force reports a UAV in Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Snovsk from the northeast. UAF Air Force reports a UAV in Sumy Oblast on a course towards Konotop. New groups of RF UAVs (mopeds) in eastern Kharkiv Oblast, heading west. UAVs heading towards Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro, and Kharkiv, indicating continued widespread aerial threats. Fires in Dnipro district due to UAV attack, with consequences being clarified. An RF drone strike on a gas station (АЗС) in Poltava district, causing a fire and one casualty. Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs (КАБ) on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Сливочный каприз posts drone footage showing a rural/semi-urban area subjected to conflict, with numerous damaged/destroyed buildings and power lines, suggesting widespread destruction from recent strikes. РБК-Україна reports explosions in Konotop on the background of a drone attack, citing the city mayor. Север.Реалии reports a Russian army strike on a gas station in Poltava Oblast injured six people (06:53:01Z). This confirms civilian casualties and impact on critical infrastructure. Операция Z reports powerful strikes on enemy targets in Kyiv Oblast overnight (07:29:00Z). STERNENKO posts video showing a significant smoke plume over a residential area, likely from an explosion or large fire. STERNENKO posts video showing a large explosion in an urban/semi-urban environment. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of a large, dense smoke plume rising from an urban environment, suggesting a significant incident. РБК-Україна and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report that Ukrainian UAVs attacked the "Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat" petrochemical complex in Bashkortostan, over 1300km from the border. Videos show large plumes of smoke and fire. This is a confirmed, significant UAF deep strike on critical RF energy infrastructure. Explosions reported in Kharkiv, potentially outside the city. (Confidence: HIGH) Colonelcassad posts animated map summarizing RF strikes on Ukraine from 17-18 September 2025, detailing flight paths and impact areas of drones (Geran) and missiles (UMPK, OTRK). This confirms continued, planned multi-vector aerial campaigns by RF. (Confidence: HIGH) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts videos of a large industrial fire producing a massive column of dark smoke, captioned "Republic of Bashkortostan, swamps." This corroborates the UAF deep strike on the Salavat petrochemical complex and confirms the significant damage. (Confidence: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports "All clear," indicating the lifting of an air raid alarm in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (Confidence: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a new UAV (moped) heading towards Nizhyn, Chernihiv Oblast. This indicates continued RF drone incursions in Northern Ukraine. (Confidence: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV (moped) heading towards Kramatorsk in Donetsk Oblast. This indicates continued RF drone incursions in Eastern Ukraine. (Confidence: HIGH)
RF Environmental/Domestic Incident: Wildfires spreading to residential homes in Rostov Oblast. Firefighters in Crimea liquidating a dry vegetation fire. A gas-air mixture explosion in Angarsk, Irkutsk Oblast, has caused one fatality and necessitated a state of emergency, with 5 casualties. A large fire is reported on the roof of a building with commercial stalls in Irkutsk, further stressing RF emergency services. Elbrus cable car accident further stressed domestic emergency services. The Holy Trinity Church in Sudzha (Kursk Oblast) was robbed and damaged from shelling. Multiple explosions in Kursk. A series of claps occurred near administrative buildings in Schitovaya village, Vladivostok. A series of explosions also occurred in Vladivostok this morning. FSB detained a woman in Novosibirsk for involvement in a sabotage act on the Trans-Siberian Railway in Trans-Baikal Krai. RF Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov stated that the US is not yet ready to completely abandon Russian uranium. An all-terrain vehicle with 9 passengers fell into a lake in Transbaikalia, with 5 presumed drowned. The arrest of the Elbrus cable car director. A fire at Morozovsk airfield in Rostov Oblast. Temporary internet outage in Kamchatka. MAK published final words of An-24 pilots crashed in Amur Oblast, indicating ongoing domestic aviation incidents. The State Duma committee approved a bill on using narcotics for service dog training, an internal RF policy development. Rospatent temporarily refused Renault Group registration of "Reno" trademark in Russia, along with over 30 other countries, indicating ongoing economic isolation and internal bureaucratic issues. Severe flooding in Makhachkala, Dagestan, due to heavy rains. This is a domestic environmental event, which could strain local emergency services. Rescuers, police, and emergency services are searching for a tourist missing since September 1st in "Ergaki" natural park, Krasnoyarsk Krai. This confirms ongoing domestic emergency situations, diverting resources from military support. Rescuers have discovered the location of the sunken all-terrain vehicle in Transbaikalia and are extracting bodies. This confirms an ongoing domestic emergency, likely resulting in multiple fatalities, continuing to strain RF emergency services. A woman on a car killed a bear cub in Sochi. A video shows the exhumation of what appears to be a soldier's body in Donbas. This indicates RF is conducting either war dead recovery or forensics. Two people died and six were injured in a bus accident in Vladimir Oblast, indicating continued domestic incidents requiring emergency services. TASS reports that an online advertisement for selling a giraffe into private hands disappeared after a court ruling, but offers for two calves remain. TASS reports the death of ballet master Yuri Papko at 86, indicating domestic normalcy reporting. Mash на Донбассе posts video claiming residents of Kirovskoye (occupied Donetsk) are not surprised by trash near their homes, suggesting local governance failures or social decay in occupied areas, likely for RF IO to deflect blame. Игорь Артамонов posts video about doctors saving an extremely low birth weight baby in a perinatal center, promoting positive domestic healthcare narratives. Военкор Котенок posts video of a "positive footage from Chechnya" showing a luxury wedding convoy worth "about a billion," indicating an RF IO effort to project normalcy, wealth, and stability in a volatile region, potentially as a distraction from military news. Новости Москвы reports a person falling onto subway tracks at "Ploshchad Revolyutsii" station, but survived, indicating a civilian accident. Новости Москвы posts video of a moose crossing a highway at night, highlighting a civilian road hazard. ТАСС reports former Vologda head Yevgeny Shulepov, accused of corruption, has died. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts video of exhumation of a soldier's body in Donbas. This indicates RF is conducting either war dead recovery or forensics, or UAF is documenting war crimes. ТАСС reports rescuers are working to extract an all-terrain vehicle from the shore (06:44:01Z), which appears to be a submerged military vehicle from the accompanying text. This indicates an ongoing domestic recovery effort, possibly military equipment. TASS reports the heating season has begun in 20 regions of Russia. This is a routine seasonal domestic development, indicating normalcy. "Moskvarium" in Moscow has new Gavial crocodiles, a domestic normalcy report. (Confidence: HIGH) ТАСС reports former Vologda head Yevgeny Shulepov died in a hospital, not pre-trial detention, providing clarity on a domestic incident. (Confidence: HIGH) Новости Москвы posts video of MinFin head stating "Muscovites can drink a glass of wine or beer for lunch," framed as a commentary on productivity. This is domestic IO, not directly military. (Confidence: HIGH) ТАСС reports Deputy Finance Minister Kadochnikov expects about 50 billion rubles of regional debts to be written off by the end of the year, indicating RF efforts to manage internal financial stability. (Confidence: HIGH) ТАСС reports that the date for Putin's address to the Federal Assembly has not yet been set, according to Peskov. This is a routine domestic political report. (Confidence: HIGH) ТАСС reports Peskov confirmed Putin will meet with faction leaders today. This is a routine domestic political report. (Confidence: HIGH) ТАСС reports on a Russian citizen saving a Chinese tourist in Hong Kong. This is a positive domestic/foreign relations IO narrative, not directly military. (Confidence: HIGH) ASTRA reports Dmitry Kozak, Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration, resigned "at his own request," confirmed by Peskov. This is a significant internal political development in RF. (Confidence: HIGH) ТАСС reports Peskov discussed Dmitry Kozakov's resignation. (Confidence: HIGH) ТАСС reports the Ministry of Finance is considering a mechanism to reduce the rate on "Family Mortgages" with an increase in the number of children in the family. This is a domestic social policy initiative. (Confidence: HIGH) ТАСС reports that Russia's representation in Ramallah helped Russians evacuate from Gaza. This is a routine domestic/foreign policy report. (Confidence: HIGH) ТАСС reports new restrictions for gold exports for individuals from Russia through the Customs Union, limited to 100 grams in monetary bars. This indicates RF efforts to control capital flight and currency stability. (Confidence: HIGH) Новости Москвы reports a check of 20 protein brands found 11 samples with protein content not matching the label. This is a domestic consumer report, not military. (Confidence: HIGH) ТАСС reports visas for journalists accompanying Lavrov to the UN General Assembly are limited to a 25-mile radius from NYC, indicating US restrictions on RF diplomatic/media presence. (Confidence: HIGH) ТАСС reports Deputy Chairman of the Russian Government Marat Khusnullin states there are no major risks regarding the postponement of housing construction deadlines in Russia. This is a domestic normalcy report. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: ТАСС reports that the EU imported 8.7 billion euros worth of goods from Russia in Q1 2025, despite sanctions. This is an RF IO point highlighting the limitations of sanctions. (Confidence: HIGH)
RF Internal Security: In St. Petersburg, the FSB uncovered mediation in bribes for hospitalization from the SMO zone. In LNR, law enforcement found almost two kilograms of salts in vehicle tires, preventing drug trafficking from Moscow Oblast. A teenager was detained in Vologda for allegedly swearing allegiance to a Ukrainian "terrorist organization." Moscow Prosecutor's Office approved charges against a blogger for fraud. A Russian-Cypriot citizen, owner of the vessel that exploded in Beirut in 2020, was detained in Bulgaria. FSB detained suspects who promised SMO participants release from service for 3.5 million rubles due to injury, highlighting ongoing corruption within RF military-related processes. A criminal case against a former Playboy editor-in-chief was suspended due to his deployment to the war. A drone danger warning for Bryansk Oblast, indicating continued internal security concerns from UAV activity. A warning about remote scams issued in Khabarovsk Krai, indicating persistent domestic cyber/information security concerns. A decrease in illegally employed workers, an RF domestic IO point. Low wage arrears, indicating domestic IO to project economic stability. Yury Dud*, a prominent Russian journalist, denies guilt in a criminal case regarding evading foreign agent duties, indicating continued internal security and media control efforts. A co-conspirator of ex-Deputy Minister of Energy Mochalnikov, Andrei Moiseenko, fully admitted guilt in a judicial proceeding, indicating ongoing domestic legal processes. RF air defense destroyed UAVs in three districts of Rostov Oblast, indicating active internal security measures against perceived UAV threats. The lifting of the drone danger alert, suggesting a temporary de-escalation of internal threats. An arrest in Vladivostok for illegal border crossing, highlighting continued internal security focus. Former Dynamo Kyiv goalkeeper Rudko attempted to cross the Ukraine-Moldova border, reinforcing RF domestic security concerns. The arrest of a suspect for intentional infliction of moderate bodily harm in Khabarovsk, indicating continued domestic law enforcement activity. Rada deputy Artem Dmitruk claiming he was forced to flee Ukraine after threats to his family due to fighting Zelenskyy's regime, a continued RF IO point. Video of security forces conducting searches of journalists and activists in Ufa this morning, demonstrating continued internal security actions against perceived dissent. State prosecution seeks a 600,000 ruble fine for Mikhail Volkov for financing an extremist organization, indicating ongoing legal actions against political opponents. FSB detained an African national in Astrakhan for espionage for Ukrainian military intelligence, indicating active RF counter-intelligence operations against perceived UAF infiltration. Further amplification of the detention of an African national for espionage for Ukrainian military intelligence. A French cyclist detained in Vladivostok is in Ussuriysk pre-trial detention, indicating ongoing RF internal security actions against foreign nationals. A conviction for drug trafficking in Komsomolsk-on-Amur, indicating routine domestic law enforcement operations. A request to check Rada Russkikh for involvement in drug and murder propaganda. This indicates continued RF internal security measures and control over information and public figures. Yulia Navalnaya claims Alexei Navalny was poisoned in prison. This is a significant internal political event in RF, likely requiring increased internal security and IO management. A Russian woman sentenced in Belarus for involvement with independent media (Север.Реалии 09:42:13Z, ASTRA 10:33:31Z). Former Ukrainian prisoners recount torture in Mordovian IK-10. A Perm resident was fined 20,000 rubles for insulting a known acquaintance. This indicates domestic legal processes for minor offenses. A listening device (with SIM and memory card) was discovered in the office of Lviv Mayor Sadovyi, suggesting a sophisticated intelligence operation targeting Ukrainian officials. TASS reports that US authorities claim palladium imports from RF harm American producers, potentially leading to US tariffs. Север.Реалии reports that recruited billionaire fraudster Jan Marsalek has settled in Moscow and is involved in "special operations" in Ukraine, indicating potential high-level RF intelligence involvement. TASS reports electronic documents can be signed via "Госключ" and Max apps from September 26, promoting domestic digital infrastructure and potential state control. Colonelcassad posts video message claiming a Crimean resident received 14 years in a strict regime colony for preparing a terrorist act. The video shows an individual recounting being detained by Ukrainian special services and tasked with photographing military equipment and planting a bomb, before leaving Kryvyi Rih. This is RF IO intended to highlight internal security successes and demonize Ukrainian intelligence. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА posts video captioned "Escape failed!", showing RF soldiers apprehending an individual. ASTRA reports that approximately 90 Ukrainians, subject to deportation, are being held in Smolensk Oblast as an "exchange reserve," with some expressing willingness to stay in Russia or join the SMO. Colonelcassad reports a 19-year-old extremist sentenced in St. Petersburg for preparing high treason and participation in a terrorist organization. TASS reports Tyler James Robinson, accused in the Charlie Kirk murder, agreed to surrender to law enforcement, fearing he might be shot during detention. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts video of apprehended individuals allegedly involved in an assassination plot in St. Petersburg, including supposed confessions. This is a key RF counter-intelligence and IO narrative. Kotsnews also posts a related video, theatricalizing the event. Colonelcassad posts video of "ukragents" confessing to joining a terrorist organization (06:41:49Z). This reinforces RF claims of Ukrainian terrorism and internal security threats. Басурин о главном posts multiple videos detailing FSB thwarting a terrorist attack in St. Petersburg, showing detentions, alleged confessions, and devices (06:59:02Z). This is a significant RF counter-intelligence and IO effort. TASS reports an ex-deputy of the Kursk Regional Duma, accused of embezzlement, wants to volunteer for the SMO (07:11:01Z), which suggests a method for RF to replenish personnel or offer reduced sentences. Colonelcassad reports FSB prevented an assassination attempt on the head of a defense enterprise in St. Petersburg (07:24:04Z), reinforcing the RF internal security narrative. TASS reports suspects in providing financial services to Ukrainian call centers were detained (07:25:08Z). ASTRA reports that former Kursk Regional Duma deputy Vasilyev, accused of embezzlement, wants to volunteer for the war. This highlights RF's efforts to recruit even those with criminal charges. ТАСС reports on the appointment of Krasnov as the head of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation and Gutsan as Prosecutor General. These are routine RF political/judicial appointments, indicative of internal governance. ASTRA reports that Putin has proposed Alexander Gutsan as the candidate for Prosecutor General. This is a routine RF political appointment. Alex Parker Returns reports that an ethnographer, held in an Afghan prison, claims the Taliban consider Russians as enemies, citing harsh interrogations and historical grievances. (Confidence: MEDIUM) This indicates potential foreign policy challenges and counter-IO narratives for RF. The Russian Investigative Committee has requested that Baza editor-in-chief Trifonov be transferred from pre-trial detention to house arrest. (Confidence: HIGH) Video of an RF Orthodox priest, Ierey Georgy Shabalov, leaving his Moscow service to be with soldiers on the front, indicating efforts to boost morale and religious support for RF forces. (Confidence: HIGH) ASTRA reports a school security guard in St. Petersburg was sentenced to 5 years for reposting content about Bucha. This confirms continued severe repression of dissent and information control in Russia, with direct implications for civilian freedom of speech. (Confidence: HIGH) МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports the death of an 18-year-old son of a mobilized soldier, indicating potential RF ground losses and the human cost of the conflict on RF families. (Confidence: MEDIUM) Mash на Донбассе reports an LNR energy inspector demanded 50k from a commercial entity for illegal connection. This indicates continued corruption in occupied territories under RF control. (Confidence: HIGH) Военкор Котенок posts video of FSB thwarting a terrorist attack against the head of a Russian defense enterprise. This is a continued RF IO narrative to highlight internal security successes and demonize Ukrainian intelligence activities. (Confidence: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video alleging FSB prevented a terrorist attack in St. Petersburg against the head of a defense enterprise, featuring an interrogation of a blurred individual. This reinforces the RF narrative of internal security successes and alleged Ukrainian terrorist activity. (Confidence: HIGH - RF claims) Colonelcassad reports that Colombian mercenaries organized a criminal business in Ukraine, involving drug trafficking, mercenary activities, and drone/explosive component supplies. This is an RF IO effort to discredit foreign fighters in Ukraine and link the conflict to organized crime. (Confidence: LOW - RF claims, unverified) Fighterbomber reports State Duma Deputy Nikolai Arefyev proposed disconnecting Russians from the internet for a week or at least on weekends. This indicates potential RF consideration of extreme information control measures. (Confidence: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ reports the SBU detained an RF agent attempting to infiltrate Ukrainian military units to adjust shelling. This indicates continued RF attempts at intelligence gathering and targeting UAF, and successful UAF counter-intelligence. (Confidence: HIGH) ASTRA reports that an stepfather who repeatedly raped his stepdaughter in Krasnoyarsk Krai was offered to sign a contract and go to war instead of punishment, and he agreed. This highlights RF's controversial recruitment practices. (Confidence: HIGH) Рыбарь posts a photo message captioned "Another 'comrade' expelled," depicting a document for the expulsion of a person from Russia. This indicates continued RF internal security measures, possibly related to foreign nationals or undesirables. (Confidence: HIGH) Басурин о главном posts a video on historical precedents for punishing Nazism, implying RF's ongoing justification for the conflict. (Confidence: HIGH - RF IO) ASTRA reports the detention of individuals in Britain suspected of spying for Russia. This indicates continued RF espionage activity and successful counter-intelligence by Western allies. (Confidence: HIGH)
Drone Incident (Poland): A drone was neutralized over Polish government buildings in Warsaw, with two Belarusian citizens detained. РБК-Україна reports that a Russian drone that invaded Lithuania was launched from Belarus. Poland is deporting a Ukrainian citizen who launched a drone over government buildings in Warsaw. This confirms the nationality of the perpetrator and indicates a different narrative than RF IO. Alex Parker Returns confirms the Ukrainian citizen is 21 years old, will be fined 1000 Euros, and banned from Poland/Schengen for 5 years, while a 17-year-old Belarusian was released as a witness, further detailing the Polish legal response. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Poland is deporting a 21-year-old Ukrainian who flew a drone over Warsaw government quarter. Poland confirmed that a missile, launched from an F-16 fighter jet, hit a residential building in Wyryki village. (Confidence: HIGH - This is a significant and potentially escalating development, though the source of the F-16 or its purpose is not clear from the message itself.)
RF Increase in ARVI Cases: ARVI incidence in RF increased by 63.8% over the week, doubling among schoolchildren. No quarantine measures are needed.
Explosion in Kharkiv (NEW - РБК-Україна 09:54:32Z, 09:59:26Z): An explosion was reported in Kharkiv, with initial reports suggesting it occurred outside the city.
UAF Domestic Crime (NEW - Офіс Генерального прокурора 12:15:12Z): 15 years imprisonment for rape of 12-year-old stepdaughter in Zakarpattia. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the completion of an investigation into the former head of the Odesa TCC & SP, accused of document forgery and obstructing the Armed Forces of Ukraine (07:00:01Z). This highlights ongoing internal anti-corruption efforts. НАБУ declared a Yanukovych associate on a wanted list for large-scale land fraud (РБК-Україна 07:15:01Z), indicating continued UAF efforts against high-level corruption. The Donetsk Regional Prosecutor's Office has initiated an investigation into the possible inaction of social services, which resulted in three children being without proper care for over a year. (Confidence: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора reports uncovering embezzlement of budget funds (including those for children), abuse of office, fraud, illegal logging, drug crimes, and environmental pollution in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This confirms continued UAF efforts against domestic corruption and crime. (Confidence: HIGH) Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the completion of an investigation into a judge from Marinka district court for spreading pro-Russian narratives and denying RF aggression. This indicates continued UAF efforts against collaborators and internal threats. (Confidence: HIGH)
UAF Domestic Incident - TCC (NEW): РБК-Україна reports a drunk TCC employee in Ternopil Oblast caused multiple traffic accidents and a police chase. The Ukrainian State Border Guard Service (DPSU) is transferring data on men who attempted to illegally illegally cross the border to the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCC), indicating enhanced efforts to combat draft evasion. (Confidence: HIGH)
UAF Counter-Intelligence - Lithuania (NEW): Оперативний ЗСУ reports a group of Russian intelligence agents detained in Lithuania, who were planning four terrorist attacks.
RF Domestic Politics - Sports (NEW): ТАСС posts a photo message stating that the issue of Russian participation in the Olympic Games may be discussed at the IOC Executive Board meeting in Milan.
RF Air Travel - Volgaograd (NEW): ТАСС reports temporary flight restrictions at Volgograd airport. UPDATED: TASS reports restrictions lifted. ТАСС reports that restrictions on takeoffs and landings at Orenburg airport have been lifted.
Kyiv Oblast - Warehouse Fire (NEW): RBC-Ukraine reports a warehouse fire in Kyiv Oblast due to an enemy attack.
Kyiv Oblast - Attack (NEW): Оперативний ЗСУ reports RF again attacked Kyiv Oblast.
US Domestic Issue (NEW): РБК-Україна reports a man shot at police during arrest in the US, with casualties. This is likely RF IO material.
RF Civilian Casualty (NEW): ASTRA reports a civilian was killed by a drone attack on a car in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, overnight.
Samara Airport Restrictions (NEW): ASTRA reports temporary flight restrictions at Samara airport.
Railway Infrastructure Damage (NEW): РБК-Україна reports "Ukrzaliznytsia" confirmed damage to several sections of railway in Poltava Oblast due to night shelling. This confirms continued RF targeting of critical railway infrastructure.
Kyiv Oblast Warehouse Fire (NEW): ASTRA reports a warehouse fire in Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast, due to RF drone attack overnight.
Kryvyi Rih Situation (NEW): Олександр Вілкул reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled as of morning 18.09.25.
RF Internal Security (NEW): TASS reports that in St. Petersburg, FSB prevented an assassination attempt on the head of a defense enterprise by a Ukrainian intelligence network.
RF VDV Training (NEW): Два майора posts video of demanding obstacle course and hand-to-hand combat training, implying it's for internal security forces or elite VDV units.
Eastern Timor Unrest (NEW): Рыбарь notes that Eastern Timor is "flaring up." (Confidence: MEDIUM) This refers to a domestic issue in a distant country, which might be amplified by RF IO to show global instability.
Southern Ukraine Civilian Shelling: Сили оборони Півдня України reports 35 shellings across 13 settlements in Southern Ukraine in the past day, confirming continued RF aggression against civilians.
Kyiv Traffic Accident (NEW): A traffic accident occurred on Stolychne Highway in Kyiv, causing transport difficulties towards the city exit. (Confidence: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ posts photo messages stating the Verkhovna Rada ratified a security cooperation agreement between Ukraine and Greece. This signifies continued UAF diplomatic efforts to secure international support and defense partnerships. (Confidence: HIGH) Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими posts multiple photo messages from a meeting with families of captured and missing servicemen from the 14th Brigade of the NGU. This highlights ongoing efforts to address personnel welfare and maintain morale among families, crucial for sustaining the war effort. (Confidence: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports Australia lowered the price of Russian oil and imposed sanctions against the "shadow fleet." This indicates continued international pressure on RF's energy sector and maritime logistics. (Confidence: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports Ukraine will control humanitarian transport under a new wartime law, indicating UAF efforts to regulate and secure humanitarian aid flows. (Confidence: HIGH) ТАСС reports on protests blocking a defense factory in France. This is an RF IO effort to highlight social unrest in Western countries. (Confidence: HIGH) Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА posts photo messages claiming over 280 hectares of Kharkiv Oblast territory has been demined in a week. This highlights UAF efforts in post-conflict recovery and ensuring civilian safety. (Confidence: HIGH) РБК-Україна reports that Ukraine will provide Poland with access to drone observation systems near its territory. This signifies enhanced bilateral security cooperation and a tactical adaptation to counter RF drone threats. (Confidence: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns posts photo messages with text questioning why Ukraine is mining and fortifying its borders with NATO and Moldova, implying confusion or contradictions. This is RF IO. (Confidence: LOW - RF IO) Colonelcassad reports a new exchange of fallen soldiers on the border of Ukraine and Belarus. This indicates ongoing efforts to repatriate war dead, but the casualty ratio claimed by Alex Parker Returns (1000 Ukrainian to 24 Russian) is highly likely an RF IO exaggeration. (Confidence: MEDIUM - RF claims on ratio are LOW) Kadyrov_95 posts video about an international wrestling tournament in Grozny, Chechnya. This is an RF IO effort to project normalcy, stability, and international engagement in Chechnya, diverting from military news. (Confidence: HIGH)
Ground: Multi-axis offensives continue with claims of advances in Krasnoarmeysk-Dmitrov agglomeration, "grinding down" elite UAF units on Dobropillya direction, and entering Konstantinovka city limits ("Yagodka" cooperative). RF claims offensive development at the junction of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with claims of "liberating" Olhivske and Sosnovka. "Kurier" and "Fagot" UGVs deployed. Heavy reciprocal battles reported in Sumy Oblast. FAB strikes continue in Kalinovsky, targeting UAF logistics. Assault on Yampil on the Krasnolimansky direction has started by RF forces, utilizing civilian clothing for disguise and human shields. RF forces have allegedly penetrated Yampil. The presence of a North Korean 107-mm Type1963 multiple rocket launcher in the "SMO zone." RF Armed Forces are expanding their bridgehead in Volchansk. RF Naval Infantry are reportedly advancing in Sumy Oblast against UAF infantry, with artillery strikes. "Vostok" assault groups discovered a foreign weapons depot in the South Donetsk direction. "Vostok" grouping's 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade scouts are conducting ambushes. RF Army is actively advancing in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF details RF military movements and territorial control changes in Zaporizhzhia (Stepnohirsk, Orikhiv, Tokmak). RF forces have taken fire control of approximately 5 km of the H-26 highway near Stepova Novoselivka, leading to Kupiansk. RF continues to advance on the Konstantinovka direction, with "pincers closing." Drone reconnaissance footage, allegedly showing UAF forward observation posts and temporary deployment points being hit in the Kharkiv direction. RF Northern Fleet's marines are performing anti-landing defense missions on Sredny Peninsula, Murmansk region. Soldier from 238th Guards 152mm/155mm shells due to drone threats. FPV drone footage shows strikes on what are described as fortified VSU positions, indicating continued tactical FPV drone usage in offensive operations. Putin arrived at Mulino training ground for the main stage of "Zapad-2025" exercises and inspected weapons, indicating high-level political engagement with ongoing military training. Putin inspecting combat motorcycles, ATVs, and drones, indicating focus on mobility and UAVs. Video of RF soldiers on the Kharkiv direction soliciting donations for medical supplies, indicating ongoing operations and potential logistical challenges. Tactical map for the Serebryansky direction, detailing RF perspectives on control. Drone footage claiming the 47th Tank Division detected a UAF mobile UAV team in Kharkiv region, indicating continued RF counter-UAV ISR efforts. Photos on the "Kupiansk direction," indicating ongoing RF activity. RF claims full control of Serebryansky forestry after 3 years of heavy fighting, which, if verified, would represent a significant RF territorial gain on the Lyman direction. Video of Putin inspecting drones and motorcycles at "Zapad-2025," highlighting a continued focus on technological integration and ground mobility. VDV performing parachute and armored vehicle air-dropping operations during "Zapad-2025," demonstrating complex large-scale airborne capabilities. Basurin further amplifies Putin's presence and engagement at "Zapad-2025" exercises. Video showcasing a military exercise involving tanks and drones, emphasizing combined arms operations. Video of matte green SUVs being prepared for a "4th auto convoy," indicating logistical support efforts. Compilation of drone footage, showing targeted destruction of armored vehicles (HMMWV, Pickup Truck), reconnaissance over damaged civilian settlements, and engagements with various ground vehicles, highlighting continued RF drone ISR and strike capabilities. Video implying a UAF soldier with a shovel against RF special forces KVN drone near Stepnohirsk, attempting to showcase RF drone superiority. Photos and text on Putin observing "Zapad-2025," highlighting the active phase of joint strategic exercises. Tactical maps depicting claimed RF ground advances on the Konstantinovskoye direction. RF efforts to camouflage Msta-S self-propelled howitzers in dense foliage to evade UAF drones, highlighting adaptive concealment tactics. Videos of "Otvazhnye" (Brave Ones) operating on the Pokrovsk direction, showing drone footage of armored vehicles and fortified positions. Map with the caption "Vostok goes to Zaporizhzhia," indicating claimed RF ground movement in this direction. Tactical map claiming RF is developing an offensive at the junction of DPR, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Tactical map for the Sloboda direction, showing combat on the border. Videos depicting artillery strikes and drone activity in what is identified as the "Dnipro" grouping's area of operation, showing continued engagement. Compilation of drone footage from Dnipropetrovsk, Pokrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia directions, showing strikes on armored vehicles, trucks, ATVs, and fortified positions, indicating active RF drone ISR and strike capabilities across multiple fronts. Video of "Zapad-2025" exercises showcasing robotic systems (UGVs) ensuring the advancement of offensive units, demonstrating integration of unmanned ground platforms. Drone footage showing a damaged landscape with numerous craters. A camouflaged vehicle, possibly a light utility vehicle or SUV, is seen moving across the terrain. It appears to be evading fire as puffs of smoke erupt near its vicinity. Later in the video, the vehicle is directly hit by an explosive, resulting in a large fireball and secondary explosions. The video also shows imagery of destroyed vehicles and personnel in a wooded area, with Russian flags and numerical indicators like '200' (fatalities) suggests confirmed enemy losses on the Dobropillya axis. RF claims "Anwar" special forces destroyed a Swedish "S-tank" while supporting an offensive towards Sumy. This is a highly unusual claim given the tank type and indicates RF IO to amplify successes and demonize Western equipment. Video and photos claiming "exclusive footage of our guys' work in the enemy's rear," depicting drone footage and thermal imagery of a forested area, showing Russian special forces insignia, likely indicating active RF deep reconnaissance and targeting operations. New video footage of "Zapad 2025" exercises in the Leningrad region, showcasing tanks and artillery maneuvering and engaging targets in a forested area. Drone footage showing a "graveyard" of UAF equipment destroyed by Russian drone operators between Krasnoarmeysk and Dimitrov, indicating successful RF tactical engagements and continued offensive pressure. New aerial surveillance footage, documenting military vehicles, static positions, and destroyed equipment, indicating continued RF drone ISR and strike capabilities in support of ground operations. Video of Novo-Donetskoye aftermath, depicting extensive damage to buildings and destroyed vehicles in a settlement, consistent with RF strikes on contested areas. Drone footage captioned "57 орСпН громит пехоту ВСУ в районе Владимировки," explicitly claiming the destruction of UAF infantry, confirming continued tactical offensive capability. Image of artillery firing exercise confirms continued ground-oriented training for RF forces. Multiple videos claiming the liberation of Novopetrovskoye, depicting drone reconnaissance, mine clearing, and direct engagement with UAF positions, confirming active ground capabilities. Video of tank crews of the Central Group engaging an AFU stronghold, displaying continued ground combat capabilities with armor support. RF claims UAF attacks on DPR border led to increased RF strikes on enemy rear. RF claims destruction of a Paladin SAU, indicating anti-armor capabilities. RF claims successful destruction of UAF attempts to cross the Dnieper, indicating effective riverine defense. Map-based analysis of the encirclement of Scherbynivka and battles in Konstantinovka, demonstrating RF's capability to conduct complex maneuver and assault operations on key urban and strategic targets. RF amplifies Deep State's report that RF Army is threatening to encircle UAF forces in Serebryansky forestry, indicating continued high-intensity offensive operations with the intent to achieve decisive local gains. RF claims UAF 'suicide attacks' at Tetkino, Kursk, met by RF paratroopers, suggesting RF ground forces are active in border defense operations. Photo message depicting a destroyed RF motorcyclist in Donbas, implying RF ground losses. Video of a UAF soldier picking up an RF fiber-optic FPV drone "KVN", which then detonates, confirming the deployment of such advanced drones by RF forces and ongoing tactical engagements. Multiple videos of Russian assault troops detailing tactical operations including drone reconnaissance, mine clearing, and direct engagement, confirming ongoing ground offensive capabilities and adaptive tactics. The soldier narration provides evidence of RF ground forces adapting to complex terrain and defensive obstacles. Military map overlay for the "Druzhkovskoye direction," confirming RF's continued capability for operational mapping and planning in contested areas. Video with an Orlan-30 drone operator discussing its EW resistance, extended range, and precision targeting capabilities (M-777 howitzers, ammunition depots), confirming robust RF ISR and strike coordination for ground support. Video confirming the completion of "Zapad 2025" coalition group of forces joint headquarters work at Mulino training ground, indicating the culmination of large-scale strategic training exercises involving ground forces. Images of a "Commemorative belt for Russian men" with what appears to be a Wagner-related insignia, indicating continued IO and possible association with paramilitary recruitment. Video of a captured Russian soldier, Mikhail Stepanov (122nd Motor Rifle Division), describing harsh combat conditions, coercive tactics, and low morale. This provides crucial HUMINT on RF ground force capabilities, and indicates a lack of proper equipment (scooters/carts for movement) suggesting logistical strains or ad-hoc tactics. Forced evacuation from 18 settlements in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, suggesting increased RF ground pressure or anticipated offensive actions. Tactical maps showing RF claims of ground advances in various sectors over the past 24 hours, particularly around Kupiansk. Reports that "the enemy (UAF) complains that the RF Armed Forces continue to advance in Kupiansk," reinforcing claims of sustained RF ground offensive pressure on this key axis. Video of "Akhmat" SpN Regiment FPV drone reconnaissance on the Sumy direction, identifying Ukrainian-made and German-made drones. This indicates RF special forces maintain capabilities for deep reconnaissance and targeting across the border, confirming active ground and ISR operations. The Duma committee approved veteran status for volunteers in assault units, suggesting an ongoing legislative effort to formalize and potentially incentivize participation in ground combat roles, signaling continued commitment to these units. Claims "Sparta" unit destroyed a UAF UAV control post, indicating RF ground units are actively engaged in counter-UAV and C2 targeting. RF and UAF-affiliated sources amplify Deep State's report that RF forces are entering and consolidating in residential areas of Kupiansk from both north and northwest. This signifies an escalation of RF ground pressure on Kupiansk, with a shift to urban infiltration tactics, confirmed by UAF-affiliated sources. The captured RF soldier (Оперативний ЗСУ 08:31:18Z) claims his unit used a gas pipe to infiltrate Kupiansk, indicating specific and adapted urban infiltration tactics. RF military expert claims UAF created powerful underground fortifications in residential Konstantinovka. This signals RF's expectation of intense urban combat in this area and could be used to justify future destructive strikes. RF claims an offensive behind Chasiv Yar, with airborne forces destroying enemy defenses and advancing from the city, indicating continued high-intensity ground operations with specific unit involvement. Special incendiary detachment of 16th Guards NBC Protection Brigade, "Vostok" Group, using thermobaric munitions on Vremevskoye direction. MoD Russia video features Russian soldiers discussing UAV attacks, small group infiltrations by AFU, and the establishment of a buffer zone. They claim to eliminate enemy forces on approaches, use "birds" (drones/scouts) for intelligence, and note a significant presence of mercenaries (primarily Polish, then African American, with only 20-30% Ukrainian). They claim to use automatic grenade launchers and heavy mortars (120mm, 80mm) and Grad systems against detected positions. The video conveys resilience, high morale, and determination, emphasizing adaptive tactics and effective hardware use. RF MoD claim of destroying a 3-person Ukrainian DRG attempting to infiltrate Kursk Oblast near Tetkino. Photo messages from Gulyaipole - Novoivanivka, indicating continued ground activity in that area. Video showcases new Zefir-M drone and Atlas-M ground robot, highlighting RF's integration of advanced robotics into ground support. Dnеvnik Desantnika🇷🇺 posts photos on the Siversk direction, likely indicating RF activity. Colonelcassad posts FPV drone footage claiming to show a destroyed UAF M1A1 Abrams tank on the Sumy front. This claim requires verification. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claims "Anwar" special forces hit a rare Swedish Strv 103 tank in the Sumy border region. This highly unusual claim needs verification. RF MoD claims 6 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Belgorod Oblast between 08:00 and 15:00, indicating active internal air defense for border areas. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА posts video displaying dynamic combat engagements in a forest environment, with soldiers using camouflage, advancing on fortified enemy positions, approaching trenches and dugouts, and engaging targets with firearms. Explosions and smoke indicate active fighting. Старше Эдды posts video claiming "Our special forces operations continue!" featuring tactical footage. MoD Russia posts video showcasing RF MLRS firing rounds in daylight and nighttime operations, with aerial perspective, likely for propaganda purposes. Colonelcassad posts photo message claiming RF forces successfully crossed the Volchya River and are advancing in eastern Ivanovka. Операция Z amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" video claiming RF forces are "burning NATO equipment, infantry, and enemy positions day and night" at Pokrovsk, implying continued and successful RF ground engagements. Два майора posts two video messages captioned "FAB on exposed AFU manpower," showing drone footage of an artillery strike near a military vehicle, suggesting a successful RF tactical strike. MoD Russia posts video claiming a T-80BVM tank crew of the Tsentr Group destroyed an enemy stronghold camouflaged in a forest belt in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Два майора posts video showing RF special forces operating in a forested area, suggesting continued tactical engagements and use of camouflage. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts photo and video messages indicating activity on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a message: "Family, friends, brothers and sisters, we urgently need drones🚀," indicating an RF unit's urgent resource requirement for drones. Старше Эдды claims RF forces have taken control of the outskirts of Kupiansk. Операция Z amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" video claiming RF VDV are destroying UAF positions and advancing on the Sumy front. Операция Z amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" video claiming RF VDV are destroying UAF positions and advancing on the Sumy front, showing drone footage of artillery/mortar strikes. Colonelcassad (20:01:26Z) posts a map message claiming assault groups occupied new positions south of Novoivanivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts graphic video footage of human remains, indicating RF ground casualties or recovery efforts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of captured Russian soldiers in Kupiansk detailing orders to kill Ukrainian men and infiltration via a gas pipe, confirming aggressive RF tactics. Colonelcassad posts video of a damaged UAF Roshel Senator armored vehicle, claimed destroyed by RF UAV operators in Sumy Oblast. ТАСС reports Russian sergeant Dinir Shavaleev broke into an enemy dugout alone and eliminated two Ukrainian soldiers. (Confidence: LOW) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a summary of the day for September 17. Операция Z amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" claims that the Cavalier of the Order of Courage from "Heroes' Time" has been appointed director of the Center for Sports Training of Russian national teams. Colonelcassad posts drone footage from the Kupiansk direction, featuring the "Svyatogor" group, showing the destruction of a Ukrainian militant crossing, enemy transport, an armored vehicle with supplies, and another enemy armored vehicle. Операция Z amplifies "Военкоры Русской Весны" claims that RF's 4th base is burning NATO "supersystems" in support of the offensive on the Zaporizhzhia front, featuring drone footage of a PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer. (Confidence: MEDIUM - PzH 2000 is NATO, but "4th base" is ambiguous, and the imagery could be old or miscontextualized) Воин DV posts video claiming the 14th Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade is destroying UAF militants on the Vremevsky direction, with thermal imagery of combat. (Confidence: MEDIUM) Colonelcassad posts video featuring an RF assault company deputy commander ("Dmitrich") operating on the Kherson direction, emphasizing his combat experience and awards. Военкор Котенок posts photo messages for the Zaporizhzhia direction (06:47:06Z), indicating continued RF presence and operations in that area. Два майора posts video "Russian 'occupiers' after liberating the south of Kherson region treacherously leave behind new roads, schools, sports facilities" (06:49:00Z). This is RF IO but indicates continued construction/infrastructure efforts in occupied territories. Два майора posts video regarding drone repair and creation for marine infantry (06:50:17Z) on the Sumy direction. This highlights RF efforts in drone logistics and operations, and suggests continued activity on the Sumy axis. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video of RF soldiers evacuating a heavy, injured soldier from the frontline (07:12:01Z), indicating RF ground losses and challenges in casualty evacuation. MoD Russia posts video of T-72B3M tanks neutralizing UAF positions in the LPR (07:15:52Z), confirming continued RF armor deployment. Сливочный каприз posts a photo message and video for the Krasny Lyman - Shandrygolovo direction, showing aerial footage of a residential area under shelling and military movement, indicating continued RF offensive operations (07:26:15Z). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts photo message for the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating continued RF ground presence. Colonelcassad posts a compilation video from Donbas, showcasing drone footage of military engagements including strikes on enemy positions, destruction of equipment, and reconnaissance of terrain. The video includes Russian MoD elements and Rubikon production, suggesting it's RF propaganda. It narrates a pro-military story of bravery and victory. Два майора publishes a photo series under the rubric "Soldier's everyday life." The images are non-military in nature (e.g., a domestic kitchen, possibly a private residence) and do not provide any direct intelligence on force dispositions or control measures. Colonelcassad posts new map updates detailing RF ground advances over the past 24 hours, particularly around Kupiansk. (Confidence: HIGH - RF claims) Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Kotsnews post drone footage of artillery strikes by "Vostok" Group on UAF fortified positions near Gavrilovka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming active RF artillery engagement. (Confidence: HIGH) Николаевский Ванёк claims 18 officers of the operational staff of the RF 35th Combined Arms Army were killed in a sabotage operation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (Confidence: MEDIUM - UAF-affiliated source, significant claim but requires external verification) «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» posts thermal and daylight drone footage from the Sumy direction showing the interception of an enemy drone, identification of an "enemy drone launch point," and a drone strike on an "enemy antenna," causing an explosion and fire. This indicates active RF counter-drone operations, ISR capabilities, and precision strike against UAF C2/ISR assets on the Sumy axis. (Confidence: HIGH) Fighterbomber posts video of a Ka-29K helicopter with guns "somewhere on the coast." This reinforces RF naval aviation capabilities and presence in maritime areas. (Confidence: MEDIUM) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports having collected over 11,000₽ for drones, stating "drones are now success in advancement and saving lives of fighters." This highlights ongoing RF ground unit reliance on drones and unit-level crowdfunding for critical equipment. (Confidence: HIGH) Басурин о главном posts photo messages of a "new large drone shown in China." This indicates RF is closely observing foreign drone developments, potentially for future acquisition or technology transfer, impacting long-term RF UAV capabilities. (Confidence: HIGH) Воин DV posts an interview with fighters from the 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the "Vostok" Group, who participated in battles for Novopetrovskoye (Ternovoye). The video includes drone reconnaissance, combat footage, and a captured UAF EW system. This provides insight into RF ground tactics, successes, and intelligence gathering on enemy equipment. (Confidence: HIGH) Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts drone footage claiming "Anwar" special forces are destroying UAF bases in the border area. This indicates continued RF special forces activity and claimed successes in deep strikes. (Confidence: MEDIUM - RF claims) Colonelcassad reports that Estonia is starting two-week "Lightning" exercises. This indicates NATO/allied military activity in the region, which RF will be monitoring. (Confidence: HIGH) MoD Russia posts a photo message summarizing the progress of the special military operation as of 18 September 2025. This is routine RF reporting. (Confidence: HIGH) Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a video showing a Russian T-72 variant tank maneuvering and firing, with subsequent footage of smoke and potential explosions in a forested area. This confirms continued RF offensive ground capabilities and armor support. (Confidence: HIGH) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video claiming RF forces eliminated a UAF platoon in Konstantinovka with a high-precision Tornado-S strike. This indicates continued RF long-range precision strikes and claimed successes. (Confidence: MEDIUM - RF claims) WarGonzo posts a video featuring a Russian soldier discussing the importance of endurance and training for "Storm" assault troops. This provides insight into RF troop training and morale-boosting efforts. (Confidence: HIGH) Два майора posts a video showcasing a woman in military uniform interacting with a kitten, captioned about "IPSO with cats." This is likely an RF IO effort to humanize soldiers and boost morale. (Confidence: HIGH) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА posts photo messages regarding a "Marathon of Hundreds" related to damaged electronic equipment, likely for drone parts or similar. This indicates internal RF initiatives to support military supply chains, possibly through volunteer efforts. (Confidence: MEDIUM) NEW: Colonelcassad posts photo messages about the situation on the Dnipropetrovsk and Eastern Zaporizhzhia directions. The included tactical map displays various arrows and markings, indicating claimed RF advances and positions. This confirms continued RF assessment and claimed offensive operations in these key southern axes. (Confidence: HIGH - RF claims) NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts FPV drone footage from Kupiansk direction (near Kovsharovka), showing a camouflaged structure and civilian vehicle. This indicates continued RF drone ISR on this axis, targeting UAF logistics or concealed positions. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts video of Solovyov proposing replacing Russian border guards with North Koreans. This highlights RF's potential consideration of leveraging North Korean military personnel for border defense or other roles in Russia, and suggests a perceived shortage of Russian personnel. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
Air/Naval: High concentration of strategic bombers. "West-2025" and "Rubezh 2025" exercises ongoing, involving significant naval deployments and strategic aviation. Military space launches successful. Iskander OTRK systems deployed near Kaliningrad. Su-34 tactical aviation launching guided aerial bombs. OAK has handed over another batch of new Su-34 fighter-bombers to the RF Ministry of Defense. RF launched three S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles and 75 drones (over 40 of them Shaheds) overnight against Ukraine. UAF Air Force warns of guided aerial bomb launches on Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Tu-22M3 bombers patrolled over Barents Sea for "Zapad-2025." MoD Russia posts video of "Zapad 2025" Baltic Fleet repelling uncrewed surface vehicle attack. Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeployed, indicating a heightened missile strike threat. Baltic Fleet naval aviation crews conducted combat use of UMPK and Kh-31A anti-ship missiles. MoD Russia posts video of Iskander-M missile system electronic launches in Kaliningrad. MoD Russia posts video of Msta-S self-propelled artillery system smashing an AFU stronghold in Krasnoarmeysk direction. MoD Russia and Basurin confirm a successful missile launch from a submarine in the Barents-Sea during "Zapad-2025." A convoy of at least one military truck with two attack helicopters providing escort was observed in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Video of trucks engulfed in flames in Zaporizhzhia, confirming RF strike BDA. Bangladesh, India, Iran, Burkina Faso, Congo, and Mali participated in "Zapad-2025," confirming broad international participation in strategic exercises, demonstrating RF's efforts to build a non-Western military bloc. "Massive use of unmanned aircraft and ground robots" as a feature of "Zapad-2025," highlighting technological focus. Russia tested naval hypersonic weapons, indicating continued development of advanced naval strike capabilities. "What's inside the 'Reactive Geranium'," indicating RF analysis of drone components, likely from downed UAF drones, for countermeasure development or propaganda. Video allegedly showing RF air force operations, though the video actually depicts a large explosion in an urban area with UAF insignia, inadvertently demonstrating RF's capability to inflict significant damage on urban/civilian areas. Multiple videos showing plumes of dark smoke rising from Balakliia, Kharkiv Oblast, indicating significant strikes on urban areas. The frigate "Admiral Golovko" conducted a Zircon hypersonic missile strike on a coastal target as part of "Zapad-2025" exercises. Video confirms the Zircon hypersonic missile launch. MoD Russia posts video of "Zapad-2025" exercises showing landing craft disembarking BMPs, covered by naval aviation, landing troops in a mock enemy port, demonstrating amphibious assault capabilities. MoD Russia posts video of "Zapad-2025" exercises showing IL-76 transport aircraft conducting large-scale airdrops of airborne troops (VDV) and armored vehicles, confirming capability for complex large-scale airborne operations. Photo message emphasizing the threat of the RF FAB-500 glide bomb. The practical phase of "Zapad-2025" exercises has concluded in Leningrad Oblast, showcasing artillery operations, confirming ongoing high-level military exercises. Explosions in Kropyvnytskyi, indicating continued RF air/missile strike capabilities against central Ukraine. An air alarm in Kyiv was declared but has since been lifted. RF UAVs hit critical infrastructure in Cherkasy Oblast, confirming continued successful air strike capabilities. RF strikes on railway infrastructure, demonstrating a continued capability to target logistical networks. UAF Air Force reports enemy tactical aviation activity in the Sea of Azov, indicating continued air presence and potential for strikes. UAF Air Force reports КАБы (Guided Aerial Bombs) on Kherson Oblast. Specific КАБ launch on Poniatiivka/Inhulets, confirming precise air-launched guided munition capabilities. Video of powerful strike on transformer station in Balakliia, indicating continued capability for precision strikes on critical infrastructure. The first regular flight from Moscow to Krasnodar since 2022, indicating a normalization of domestic air traffic, potentially freeing up military air assets for other purposes. Image of a helicopter, reinforcing RF military aviation capabilities and presence. New RF strikes on railway substations overnight, confirming continued capability for precision strikes on critical infrastructure. Photos of model airplanes for domestic IO/morale, potentially subtly promoting RF airpower capabilities. UAF Air Force reports КАБы (Guided Aerial Bombs) heading towards Sumy Oblast, indicating continued RF aerial strike capability, particularly with guided munitions. UAF Air Force reports КАБы (Guided Aerial Bombs) heading towards Kharkiv Oblast from the east. UAF Air Force reports КАБы (Guided Aerial Bombs) heading towards Donetsk Oblast. At least five strong explosions heard in Petrovsky district of Donetsk, indicating continued shelling. Claims Russian "Geraniums" (Shaheds) hit two substations overnight, confirming continued RF targeting of critical energy infrastructure with UAVs. The reopening of Krasnodar airport and its first flight since 2022, presented as a normalization of domestic air traffic. This implies that civilian infrastructure resilience is a priority, and also potentially frees up air assets for military use in other regions. UAF Air Force warn of a threat from aviation munitions in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykove district). This confirms active RF tactical aviation operations in southern Ukraine, likely utilizing guided aerial bombs (КАБ). Videos showing "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine September 16 - September 17, 2025," including an urban impact. This confirms continued RF air/missile strike capabilities, including targeting populated areas. Video of the first flight to Krasnodar airport, indicating continued RF efforts to project normalcy and potentially freeing up military transport assets. CSTO command-staff exercises "Rubezh-2025" have begun in Kyrgyzstan (17-20 Sept). This indicates RF's continued capability to conduct large-scale, multi-national exercises, projecting regional influence and potentially testing C2 capabilities. Reports that RF troops are leaving Belarusian training grounds after "Zapad-2025," indicating a redeployment or conclusion of a major exercise cycle. A video showcasing a Russian naval parade, including warships, missile boats, a cruiser, fighter jets, transport aircraft, and a submarine. This demonstrates RF's continued capacity for projecting naval and air power in a ceremonial context. UAF Air Force reports new launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aviation on the border of Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. UAF Air Force warns of a high-speed target heading towards Kharkiv. MoD Russia posts video of Il-38 anti-submarine aircraft conducting practical bombing of ground targets as part of Pacific Fleet exercise. The US Commerce Department denied "Belavia" (Belarusian airline) permission to operate Boeing flights to Russia, potentially impacting RF's strategic airlift capacity through proxies. UAF Air Force reports attack UAVs in Synelnykove, Novgorod-Siversky districts, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk Oblasts, and heading towards Kryvyi Rih district (Dnipropetrovsk). Fires in Dnipro district due to UAV attack, with consequences being clarified. An RF drone strike on a gas station (АЗС) in Poltava district, causing a fire and one casualty. Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs (КАБ) on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Рыбарь posts photo messages titled "Battle for the Sky," which are tactical analyses of RF air defense systems (likely Pantsir-S1/S2 and Buk-M2/M3) and drones (Orlan-30), implying ongoing air defense activity and aerial combat. A UAV from Cherkasy Oblast continues movement towards Kyiv Oblast (Yagotyn). Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs (КАБ) on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Colonelcassad posts an animated map summarizing RF strikes on Ukraine from 16-17 September 2025, detailing flight paths and impact areas of drones (Geran) and missiles (UMPK, OTRK). РБК-Україна reports Trump's plane nearly collided with a passenger flight over New York. ТАСС reports temporary flight restrictions at Volgograd airport. Colonelcassad posts photo messages captioned "Footage from the airshow in Changchun." UAF Air Force reports КАБы (Guided Aerial Bombs) heading towards the border of Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. UAF Air Force reports RF attack UAVs in Kyiv, with air defense active in Obolon. UAF Air Force reports КАБы (Guided Aerial Bombs) heading towards Sumy Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a photo message showing RF Su-25s flying low to avoid radar (07:21:53Z), suggesting RF tactical aviation is adapting to UAF air defense capabilities. Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports КАБы (Guided Aerial Bombs) are heading towards Sumy Oblast. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Zaliznychne, Rizdvyanka, Kamyanske, Hryhorivka, Veselyanka of Zaporizhzhia region, Antonivka, Inhulets of Kherson region, citing UAF General Staff. This indicates continued RF tactical aviation activity in southern Ukraine. Два майора posts information on a British company's new long-range kamikaze UAV with a 300kg warhead. While not directly RF disposition, this indicates awareness of advanced foreign military technology, potentially for counter-measures or future acquisition. MoD Russia posts video compilation "Rubikon in action," showcasing RF drone ISR and strike operations, including strikes on vehicles and personnel, confirming persistent aerial capabilities. (Confidence: HIGH) ТАСС reports Russian S-400 SAM systems remain in service with the Turkish army. This confirms ongoing military cooperation and arms sales between RF and Turkey, potentially influencing regional power balances. (Confidence: HIGH) Полиция Хабаровского края posts video of RF Minister of Internal Affairs Kolokoltsev visiting a police armaments exhibition in Lianyungang, China, showcasing advanced police motorcycles, patrol robots, and drones with munitions. This indicates potential RF interest in acquiring or developing similar technologies, with dual-use military applications, and demonstrates deepening Russia-China security cooperation. (Confidence: HIGH) Полиция Хабаровского края posts video of Kolokoltsev and Chinese Deputy Minister of Public Security discussing migration issues. While not directly military, this indicates high-level diplomatic engagement with China, which can have broader geopolitical and resource implications. (Confidence: HIGH)
UAV/EW: Persistent FPV drone operations, reconnaissance UAV activity. Claims of destroying 80 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. "Molniya-2" UAVs adapted with fiber optics. Mass Shahed launches from three locations. Claims destruction of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone via FPV drone. Russia has managed to create a "drone production empire". RF air defense claims 87 RF UAVs were shot down overnight. Drone footage claiming to show effective RF ISR and strike coordination. UAF Air Force warns of multiple groups of RF UAVs approaching Kharkiv via Vilcha, Vovchansk, and Slatyne. Multiple groups of RF UAVs heading towards Sumy. Video claiming 218th Guards Tank Regiment air defense battery clearing skies of enemy drones, enabling ground unit advances. "Zephyr-M" UAV. Video of "Heroes of the Fog" USV tests. Claims to destroy UAF UAV C2. Video of detained teenager in Vologda, claiming allegiance to a Ukrainian "terrorist organization." UAF Air Force reports several UAV groups past Derhachi, heading towards Kharkiv, indicating continued RF drone incursions. Drone footage claiming the 47th Tank Division detected a UAF mobile UAV team in Kharkiv region, indicating continued RF counter-UAV ISR efforts. A Russian drone that invaded Lithuania was launched from Belarus, confirming continued RF hybrid operations from Belarusian territory. UAF Air Force reports a group of UAVs (mopeds) heading towards Nizhyn, Chernihiv Oblast, confirming continued RF drone incursions in Northern Ukraine. Compilation of drone footage, showing targeted destruction of armored vehicles (HMMWV, Pickup Truck), reconnaissance over damaged civilian settlements, and engagements with various ground vehicles, highlighting continued RF drone ISR and strike capabilities. Video implying a UAF soldier with a shovel against RF special forces KVN drone near Stepnohirsk, attempting to showcase RF drone superiority. UAF Air Force reports new groups of RF attack UAVs (mopeds) heading towards/past Kharkiv, confirming continued RF drone ISR and strike capabilities. "Drone safety" in Saratov, Tambov, Voronezh, Rostov, and Volgograd Oblasts, indicating RF's ongoing perception of UAV threats and defensive posture. A fire at Morozovsk airfield in Rostov Oblast. Compilation of drone footage from Dnipropetrovsk, Pokrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia directions, showing strikes on various vehicles and fortified positions, confirming active RF drone ISR and strike capabilities. Video of "Zapad-2025" exercises showcasing robotic systems (UGVs) ensuring the advancement of offensive units, which includes drone elements, demonstrating advanced unmanned systems integration. UAF Air Force reports new groups of RF attack UAVs (mopeds) detected over Kherson Oblast, heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast. MoD Russia posts new video showcasing diverse drone activity (quadcopters for recon/strike, fixed-wing for surveillance, FPV operator), indicating continued integration of various UAV types into RF ground operations, with clear C4I implications. UAF Air Force reports UAVs in Poltava suburbs and multiple groups of UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast heading towards Kamianske, indicating continued RF drone incursions and targeting. UAF Air Force reports new groups of RF attack UAVs (mopeds) moving through Okhtyrka district, Sumy Oblast, towards Poltava Oblast. New drone danger warning for Bryansk Oblast, indicating active RF drone activity near the border. UAF Air Force reports new groups of RF attack UAVs (mopeds) moving through Mykolaiv Oblast, past Bratske, towards Kirovohrad. An updated summary of RF drone movements. UAF Air Force reports a new RF UAV (moped) heading towards Myrhorod in Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a UAV in Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Baturyn, corroborated by РБК-Україна. This indicates sustained RF drone capabilities, particularly in northern Ukraine. An "ostatok po mopedam" (remaining mopeds) update, confirming ongoing drone threat. Video of the "Torn-MDM" complex being used during "Zapad-2025" exercises, demonstrating advanced EW capabilities and their integration into military operations. UAF Air Force reports a new RF attack UAV (moped) in Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Smila, indicating continued drone incursions. RF anti-icing technology for UAVs for extreme cold, indicating continued development of drone capabilities for prolonged winter operations. Plans for anti-drone protected security zones in Russian border areas, indicating RF's defensive capabilities against UAVs and the ongoing threat perception. UAF General Staff states RF has used over 2000 drones, indicating the extensive scale of RF UAV operations and persistent capability. Drone footage with a warning about high winds affecting drone return, indicating ongoing operational challenges but continued reliance on UAVs. UAF Air Force reports a UAV in the Pavlohrad district of Dnipropetrovsk. New Chinese drone development suggests RF's ongoing efforts to explore and potentially acquire external sources for advanced military hardware, indicating a focus on long-term technological sustainment. RF FPV drone strike on a minibus in Vasylivsky district, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF air defense destroyed 8 enemy UAVs overnight, confirming active counter-UAV measures. Enemy reconnaissance UAV in Zaporizhzhia, highlighting persistent RF ISR capabilities. Enemy attack UAV in Kramatorsk, indicating continued tactical drone activity. Video of a UAF soldier picking up an RF fiber-optic FPV drone "KVN", which then detonates, confirming the deployment of such advanced drones by RF forces and ongoing tactical engagements. Videos include a Russian soldier using a drone for reconnaissance and targeting, demonstrating continued reliance on and integration of UAVs for both ISR and tactical strike missions. Drone footage in Pokrovsk shows RF 'Baba Yaga' drones and other equipment, confirming RF's diverse drone capabilities. UAF Air Force, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-УкраїНА all report 136 RF UAVs shot down/suppressed out of 172 launched, including over 100 Shaheds, confirming RF's capability for high-volume, multi-vector drone attacks. Video with an Orlan-30 drone operator discussing its EW resistance, extended range, and precision targeting capabilities, confirming robust RF ISR capabilities for battlefield awareness and target acquisition. Bakonov states an analog of Starlink will soon appear in Russia, indicating RF's development of independent, resilient C4ISR capabilities. Claims Russian "Geraniums" (Shaheds) hit two substations overnight, confirming continued RF capability to launch UAVs for deep strikes against energy infrastructure. Video of "Akhmat" SpN Regiment FPV drone reconnaissance on the Sumy direction, identifying a Ukrainian-made 'Leleka-100' or similar drone and a German 'Vector' drone. This confirms active RF special forces ISR capabilities and counter-drone operations, including the ability to identify and target enemy UAVs. Claims "Sparta" unit destroyed a UAF UAV control post. This, if verified, demonstrates continued RF counter-UAV and C2 targeting capabilities. An analysis of the night strikes, which likely includes drone and missile activities, indicating continued RF intelligence gathering and assessment of their aerial campaigns. UAF Air Force reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, heading towards Bakhmach, confirming continued RF ISR in northern sectors. Roscosmos CEO reported Russia will soon have its own satellite communication terminal, analogous to Starlink. UAF Air Force warns of a high-speed target heading towards Kharkiv. UAF Air Force reports a UAV in eastern Kharkiv Oblast, heading west. UAF Air Force reports attack UAVs in southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading northwest. UAF Air Force reports an enemy UAV south of Zaporizhzhia, heading towards the city. Kotsnews claims "Rubikon" fighters shot down 1000 enemy drones, showing a Leleka-100 reconnaissance drone. UAF Air Force reports attack UAVs in Synelnykove, Novgorod-Siversky districts, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk Oblasts, and heading towards Kryvyi Rih district (Dnipropetrovsk). UAF Air Force reports a UAV in Chernihiv Oblast heading towards Snovsk from the northeast. UAF Air Force reports a UAV in Sumy Oblast on a course towards Konotop. New groups of RF UAVs (mopeds) in eastern Kharkiv Oblast, heading west. UAVs heading towards Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro, and Kharkiv, indicating continued widespread aerial threats. Fires in Dnipro district due to UAV attack, with consequences being clarified. An RF drone strike on a gas station (АЗС) in Poltava district, causing a fire and one casualty. Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs (КАБ) on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports active UAV (moped) threats in Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photos of a downed "reactive Shahed" (Geran-3) allegedly brought down by EW means. Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports UAV activity on the border of Dnipropetropavsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, heading towards Poltava Oblast. Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports UAV activity in Donetsk Oblast, heading towards Sloviansk from the northwest. Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports UAV activity on the south of Sumy Oblast, heading towards Poltava Oblast. Colonelcassad reports the development of a polyamide net capable of neutralizing 50-100% of the kinetic energy of loitering munitions. UAF Air Force reports an enemy UAV in Sumy Oblast (Shostkinsky district) moving south. Повітряні Силі ЗС України reports a UAV in Chernihiv Oblast in the area of Kholmy (07:00:31Z). This indicates continued RF drone reconnaissance in northern Ukraine. Colonelcassad posts an animated map summarizing RF strikes on Ukraine from 16-17 September 2025, detailing flight paths and impact areas of drones (Geran) and missiles (UMPK, OTRK), confirming RF's ability to plan and execute multi-vector aerial campaigns. (Confidence: HIGH)
Air Defense: Photos of a Pantsir-S1/S2 air defense system, implying readiness. RF air defense destroyed 10 enemy UAVs over Bryansk Oblast overnight, and that the drone danger alert has been lifted in Bryansk Oblast. MoD Russia posts video of MiG-31bm fighter jets protecting long-range aircraft during "Zapad 2025," demonstrating strategic air defense capabilities. "Drone safety" in Rostov, Bryansk, and Kursk Oblasts and occupied Luhansk and Donetsk is reported. PPO is working on drones in Kyiv Oblast and in Kyiv. Temporary flight restrictions at Volgograd, Kaluga, and Saratov airports. RF air defense intercepted and destroyed UAVs in five districts of Rostov Oblast. New drone danger warning for Bryansk Oblast, indicating active RF air defense response measures. RF air defense destroyed UAVs in three districts of Rostov Oblast. RF air defense destroyed 8 enemy UAVs overnight, confirming active counter-UAV measures. UAF Air Force, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-УкраїНА all report 136 RF UAVs shot down/suppressed out of 172 launched. The Russian sources claim "destroyed/suppressed," indicating both kinetic and EW air defense responses are active. Claims "Sparta" unit destroyed a UAF UAV control post. This indicates continued RF counter-UAV and C2 targeting capabilities, utilizing ground forces with air defense elements. UAF Air Force reports the threat for Kharkiv has been lifted. Temporary flight restrictions at Tambov airport. Restrictions on Tambov airport have been lifted. RF MoD claims 6 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Belgorod Oblast between 08:00 and 15:00. 7 RF UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in the evening. ТАСС reports PVO forces shot down six Ukrainian UAVs over Kursk, Belgorod, and Rostov Oblasts. The air raid alarm in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted. ТАСС reports temporary flight restrictions at Volgograd airport. ТАСС reports that restrictions on takeoffs and landings at Orenburg airport have been lifted. ASTRA reports temporary flight restrictions at Samara airport. (Confidence: HIGH)
Capabilities:
Intentions:
Courses of Action (COAs):
MLCOA 1: Sustained Ground Offensive on Kupiansk-Lyman Axes (Confidence: HIGH)
MLCOA 2: High-Volume Aerial Campaign Targeting Critical Infrastructure (Confidence: HIGH)
MLCOA 3: Intensified Hybrid and Information Operations (Confidence: HIGH)
MDCOA 1: Operational Encirclement and Collapse of Kupiansk Defense (Confidence: MEDIUM)
MDCOA 2: Mass Cyberattack Synchronized with Physical Strikes (Confidence: MEDIUM)
MDCOA 3: Provocation Escalation on NATO Border (Confidence: LOW)
1. Verification of RF Territorial Claims (CRITICAL - PRIORITY 1)
2. Attribution and Network of Lviv Wiretap (CRITICAL - PRIORITY 2)
3. Impact Assessment of RF Railway Strikes (HIGH - PRIORITY 3)
4. UAF Morale and Sustainment Issues (HIGH - PRIORITY 4)
5. Verification of RF Casualties/Losses and Atrocity Claims (MEDIUM - PRIORITY 5)
6. RF Recruitment Practices and Force Quality (LOW - PRIORITY 6)
Immediate Defensive Posture Adjustments for Kupiansk-Lyman:
Nationwide CI Alert & Sweeps:
Strategic Communication Counter-Narrative for Kupiansk & RF Atrocity Claims:
Prioritized Offensive Actions Against RF Rail Logistics:
Enhanced Air Defense for Critical Railway Infrastructure & Drone Cooperation:
Address Internal Personnel Support and Morale:
Monitor North Korean Involvement:
//END REPORT//
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