Archived operational intelligence briefing
RF forces maintain multi-axis pressure across the Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia axes. NATO exercises continue in Lithuania, specifically "Grand Eagle 2025" involving airborne operations. Air defenses remain activated across Ukraine due to persistent RF drone and missile activity. UAF deep strikes continue against industrial and logistical targets within RF territory. RF has successfully conducted a space docking mission and continues military exercises (Zapad 2025).
KEY DEVELOPMENTS (LAST 30 MINUTES):
Continued Air/Missile Strikes (Reiteration and Diversification): RF has already executed a high-speed missile strike on Zaporizhzhia Oblast, causing power outages and private homes burning, and additional strikes in Zaporizhzhia district are confirmed, including civilian casualties in Polohy district (04:10:17Z). A previous "🚨УВАГА🚨" alert for Zaporizhzhia was active, and attack drones were confirmed inbound, but this air alert has now been terminated (03:55:01Z). RF will launch another significant air/missile strike within the next 6-12 hours (prior to 151200Z SEP 25), targeting critical energy infrastructure and DIB facilities. The attack will likely feature a high volume of Shahed-type UAVs launched from multiple vectors, including the one now on the Sumy/Chernihiv border heading west. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast will likely remain a target, as 6 UAVs were recently shot down there (04:30:14Z, 04:48:58Z).
Ground Consolidation and Pressure (Konstantinovka, Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk Border, Pokrovsk, Lyman, Siversk, Sumy Border, Kupiansk): RF's main ground effort will be to exploit and solidify any gains in Konstantinovka, the Myrnohrad/Kazatskoe sector, at the junction of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, and potentially around Siversk (if claims are verifiable) within the next 24-48 hours. This will involve continuous localized ground assaults supported by artillery, guided aerial bombs (FABs), and FPV drones. This will be supported by ongoing engineer operations, including de-mining (TASS 02:06:11Z). Secondary efforts will continue pressure on the Pokrovsk and Lyman axes, and in Sumy Oblast, seeking to fix UAF forces. RF will continue showcasing combat operations to project success and maintain internal morale (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 04:01:01Z). RF's intent to advance on Sumy and Pokrovsk is explicitly stated by their milbloggers (Операция Z 04:21:02Z), indicating continued ground pressure on these axes. UAF General Staff maps (05:01:01Z) show continued RF pressure across multiple axes, confirming ongoing ground operations. (Confidence: HIGH)
Escalated Information Warfare and Suppression (Starlink Exploitation): RF will significantly intensify its information warfare campaign over the next 24-72 hours, with a critical focus on exploiting the Starlink outage.
Tactical Nuclear/Strategic Attack Signal: In conjunction with "Zapad-2025," RF could conduct a highly publicized, unambiguous, and provocative test of a tactical nuclear weapon or a strategic missile launch with a declared (but non-nuclear) warhead into an uninhabited area. This is a significantly higher-risk option than current signaling.
Limited Cross-Border Ground Incursion (Northern Front Diversion): RF could conduct a limited, deniable ground incursion into the Sumy/Chernihiv region, utilizing hybrid forces or Special Operations elements. This would be designed to fix UAF forces, force redeployments, create panic, and open a new, active front. This would be coupled with an intense IO campaign.
Cyber-Attack on Critical Infrastructure (NATO Member State): RF could launch a highly disruptive cyber-attack against a critical infrastructure sector of a NATO member state directly bordering Ukraine. This would be a hybrid escalation, intended to demonstrate RF's capability to inflict costs on NATO without direct kinetic military action.
//END REPORT//
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