Archived operational intelligence briefing
SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - 142303Z SEP 25
RF forces maintain multi-axis pressure, with particular focus on the Kupiansk, Lyman, Pokrovsk, Siversk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia axes. NATO exercises continue in Lithuania. Air defenses remain activated due to persistent RF drone activity. Reports of RF UAVs entering Romanian airspace have been confirmed, while Polish authorities have concluded there was no confirmed airspace violation on 13 September. UAF deep strikes against industrial and logistical targets within RF territory are confirmed (Perm Krai, Ufa, Kirishi, Oryol-Kursk railway, Sievierodonetsk military warehouse). Ukraine's Prime Minister Shmyhal estimates the cost of Ukraine's survival in 2026. RF has successfully conducted a space docking mission and continues military exercises (Zapad 2025).
KEY DEVELOPMENTS (LAST HOUR):
Capabilities:
Intention:
Courses of Action (COA):
RF Logistics:
UAF Sustainment:
Continued Air/Missile Strikes (Reiteration and Diversification): RF will launch another significant air/missile strike within the next 6-12 hours (prior to 150600Z SEP 25), targeting critical energy infrastructure (especially thermal power plants and substations) and possibly DIB facilities or military airfields (e.g., Nizhyn) in central, eastern, and western Ukraine. The attack will likely feature a high volume of Shahed-type UAVs launched from multiple vectors (including the group now east of Poltava heading south and in eastern Kharkiv heading west/southwest, as well as northern Kharkiv heading south, Western Kherson heading north/northwest, and eastern Dnipropetrovsk heading west). While the latest ballistic alert was cancelled, the threat remains. The intent is to further degrade Ukraine's energy grid ahead of winter and retaliate for UAF deep strikes.
Ground Consolidation and Pressure (Konstantinovka, Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk Border, Pokrovsk, Lyman, Siversk, Sumy Border, Kupiansk): RF's main ground effort will be to exploit and solidify any gains in Konstantinovka, the Myrnohrad/Kazatskoe sector, at the junction of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, and potentially around Siversk (if claims are verifiable) within the next 24-48 hours. This will involve continuous localized ground assaults supported by artillery, guided aerial bombs (FABs), and FPV drones. Secondary efforts will continue pressure on the Pokrovsk and Lyman axes to fix UAF forces and prevent redeployments. RF reconnaissance (e.g., 4th military base near Orikhiv) will continue to support these advances. Continued RF focus on Lyman frontlines with FPV drone operations. Rosgvardia's enhanced fire support capabilities with new mortars could also enable them to secure rear areas more effectively, indirectly supporting front-line operations. RF special forces will likely continue operations to disrupt UAF artillery and UAV C2 in border regions, particularly Sumy Oblast, in support of localized ground efforts. RF will likely maintain pressure and intelligence gathering in Kupiansk, as evidenced by recent milblogger activity. (Confidence: HIGH)
Escalated Information Warfare and Suppression: RF will significantly intensify its information warfare campaign over the next 24-72 hours, focusing on:
Tactical Nuclear/Strategic Attack Signal: In conjunction with "Zapad-2025," RF could conduct a highly publicized, unambiguous, and provocative test of a tactical nuclear weapon or a strategic missile launch with a declared (but non-nuclear) warhead into an uninhabited area (e.g., Arctic). This would be intended as a direct nuclear deterrent signal to NATO, explicitly linking "Zapad-2025" to strategic escalation and demonstrating a willingness to use such capabilities if NATO intervention or aid to Ukraine escalates beyond RF's perceived red lines. This is a significantly higher-risk option than current signaling.
Limited Cross-Border Ground Incursion (Northern Front Diversion): RF could conduct a limited, deniable ground incursion into the Sumy/Chernihiv region, utilizing hybrid forces (e.g., Border Guard Service, mobilized units, or proxy forces) or Special Operations elements. This would be designed to fix UAF forces, force redeployments from the Donbas, create panic, and open a new, active front. This would be coupled with an intense IO campaign claiming "counter-terrorist operations" or "protection of border regions." The incursion would likely target border settlements and potentially logistical nodes or small military installations.
Cyber-Attack on Critical Infrastructure (NATO Member State): RF could launch a highly disruptive cyber-attack against a critical infrastructure sector (e.g., energy, finance, transportation) of a NATO member state directly bordering Ukraine (e.g., Poland, Romania). This would be a hybrid escalation, intended to demonstrate RF's capability to inflict costs on NATO without direct kinetic military action, potentially in response to increased NATO force posture or military aid, or to test NATO's Article 5 response threshold.
//END REPORT//
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