Situation Report

SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - 130433Z SEP 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (Confidence: HIGH)

RF forces maintain multi-axis pressure, with an emphasis on the Pokrovsk axis where urban combat continues in Muravka and Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). RF forces of the "Vostok" Grouping have "liberated" Sosnovka and Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, aiming to enhance encirclement of a UAF grouping in Velykomykhailivka. Combat is reported south of Stepnohirsk with active RF aviation support. On the Lyman axis, RF claims to be assaulting Zarechnoye and reports activity near Kolodyazi. Colonelcassad reports RF forces have established control over Kolodyazi and are advancing on the Krasny Liman direction. TASS further reports RF troops have "practically dislodged" UAF from Kirovsk on the Krasny Liman direction, with UAF suffering heavy losses, which, if true, would significantly consolidate RF control over this sector. TASS also reports RF forces are clearing the outskirts of Krasny Liman near Torske and Kirovsk. Intense combat continues near Krasny Liman, DPR, with the RF 103rd Regiment advancing towards Konstantinovka, now reportedly 7 km from the city. TASS claims RF forces have destroyed a UAF grouping trapped in northern Konstantinovka. On the Siverske direction, RF forces claim control of approximately 50% of Pereyizne and advances in the Kremensky forests, taking control of approximately 3 km of the administrative border. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports the 88th Assault Brigade has successfully assaulted and captured an enemy stronghold near Fedorovka on the Siverske direction, using 122mm artillery. RF UAVs are establishing "fire control" over UAF logistical routes near Krasny Liman and Izium-Barvinkove, and claim control of 1.5 km of a supply route in Kupyansk. RF claims "liberation" of Zelenyi Hai and fighting for Torske, indicating sustained offensive operations on the Lyman direction. RF forces have "expelled the enemy from Katerynivka" and continue to advance in the Konstantinovka direction, near Kleban-Byk and Pleshcheyevka, maintaining pressure on this critical UAF defensive axis. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) reports RF forces are advancing towards Konstantinovka, breaking through enemy defenses near Predtechino and Pleshcheyevka, confirming continued pressure on the Konstantinovka axis. Offensive action near Chasiv Yar involves airborne units engaging enemy infantry. Рыбарь (RF milblogger) provides a tactical analysis video documenting RF offensive operations and territorial gains in the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd agglomeration area between 24 AUG and 10 SEP 25, confirming sustained pressure and advances. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" (UAF milblogger) claims Ukrainian Defense Forces (СОУ) have "cleared and liberated" the villages of Shakhove and Volodymyrivka on the Dobropillya direction. This, if verified, represents a UAF tactical success and potentially reverses some RF gains. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" (RF milblogger) projects the Special Military Operation (SVO) will conclude in 2027 with the capture of Odesa and Mykolaiv, indicating long-term RF strategic aspirations. TASS reports Russian forces have "practically dislodged" UAF from the settlement of Novomykolaivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, according to Russian security forces. This is a new and significant claim, indicating further RF advances and expansion of the Dnipropetrovsk salient. "Z комитет + карта СВО" shares multiple map images showing advances around Velykomykhailivka and Novoivanivka, reinforcing RF claims of continued pressure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Novopavlivka direction. DeepState map update indicates changes, requiring further analysis for specifics. "Два майора" (RF milblogger) and "Сливочный каприз" (RF milblogger) reinforce claims of RF capture of Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, providing video evidence of artillery strikes and claimed M-777 destruction, with "Vostok" Grouping involved. "Сливочный каприз" shares video showing drone footage of a settlement under artillery bombardment (likely Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk area, identified by caption 12.09.25 Красноармейска - Октябрьское(Шахово)), and now also Krasnoarmeysk - Vladimirovka (12.09.25). "Воин DV" (RF milblogger) shares drone footage of operators from the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, "Vostok" Grouping, engaged in active military activity targeting a dark-colored vehicle and what appears to be a motorcycle or smaller vehicle, followed by thermal imaging of multiple targets, explosions, and muzzle flashes, with individuals (likely soldiers) moving in the environment. This suggests active RF FPV drone operations and engagement of UAF light vehicles/personnel. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF milblogger) shares video depicting a coordinated assault on enemy trench positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction by SSO snipers, involving grenades and small arms fire in close-quarters combat, highlighting active UAF ground engagements. New video from БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows Ukrainian soldiers from the '3rd Army Corps' in a rural environment conducting tactical movements, RPG use, and interaction with captured individuals, indicating active offensive/clearing operations. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) also shows a video from Bryansk-Chernihiv direction where "border guards" are destroying UAF equipment, infantry, and positions, including mortar positions, a fuel station, and communications antenna. This indicates active RF operations against UAF on border areas. Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF milblogger) reports that the "Shkval" battalion of the "Skelya" regiment conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF milblogger) reports the appearance of Russian FPV drones in the central part of Kramatorsk. Военкор Котенок (RF milblogger) shares aerial footage of Vovchansk showing widespread destruction and smoke plumes, attributed to combat on the Kharkiv direction. "Рыбарь" shares a map detailing RF forces "taking the East," specifically highlighting active ground combat on the eastern front (Confidence: HIGH). "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares a photo of RF airborne troops on the Konstantinovka direction, indicating continued RF pressure in this sector (Confidence: HIGH). "Воин DV" shares drone footage displaying aerial reconnaissance over urban and rural environments, showing military vehicles (trucks, ATV) with camouflage/protective measures, interspersed with Russian propaganda emblems and slogans. (Confidence: HIGH)

GSU reports indicate a significant concentration of RF forces and 130 combat engagements over the past 24 hours on the Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka, and Shakhtarske directions, with UAF repelling numerous attacks. RF is attempting to advance near Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, and claims to have repelled a UAF counterattack on the left bank of the Vovcha River, occupying four technical buildings. RF Special Forces (14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, "Sida" detachment of AHMAT, "Anvar" detachment) are actively supporting ground assaults on the South Donetsk direction and conducting precision strikes against UAF artillery on the Sumy direction, with "Anvar" operating in buffer zones along the Kharkiv and Chernihiv borders. RF is reportedly bringing up reserves to Vovchansk. The Kherson-Mykolaiv highway is claimed to be under RF fire control. UAF forces successfully destroyed a bridge over the Siverskyi Donets river near Nova Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, Russia, using FPV drones and pre-planted mines, disrupting RF logistical movement. Widespread destruction in Vovchansk confirms heavy combat and significant damage. RF forces continue FPV drone operations targeting UAF logistics and personnel across multiple sectors. Drone footage indicates RF strikes on trenches, a command post, and a communications tower on the Rubtsovsk direction, with suggested electronic warfare activity against "STARLINK." RF forces are actively countering UAF attempts to regain Udachnoye, displaying a presence in previously contested structures. RF "Молния-2" UAVs reportedly struck a UAF temporary deployment point (PVD) in Sumy Oblast. RF UAV operators are disrupting UAF rotations in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF reports one civilian killed in Polohy Raion due to enemy attacks. Oleg Sinegubov, Governor of Kharkiv Oblast, reports 18 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were subjected to enemy attacks over the past day, confirming widespread and persistent RF pressure in the region. "Воин DV" (RF milblogger) shares thermal drone footage of 35th Army Special Forces (Vostok Grouping) targeting UAF personnel with FPV drones and grenade drops in the Polohy direction, indicating continued RF FPV drone effectiveness and localized ground pressure. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" (RF milblogger) shares video of army aviation operations in Kharkiv Oblast, Iziumskyi district, near Borovska Andriyivka, targeting areas in support of the 1st Tank Army's assault units, indicating concentrated RF air support for ground advances in this sector. "Народная милиция ДНР" shares video of RF 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (ORB) destroying UAF communications antenna/Starlink in a rural area, confirming continued RF counter-C2 efforts. Liveuamap Source reports on daily clashes across South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv), Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, and Kherson directions, with UAF repelling numerous attacks, underscoring the widespread nature of combat. Colonelcassad reports FPV drone operators from "Sparta" battalion, 51st Guards Combined Arms Army, destroyed two UAF UAV control points and a communication antenna near Dimitrov. This is a significant claim regarding counter-UAF C2. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that during raid actions by "Morok" assault battalion, 225th Separate Assault Regiment, in the rear of the RF 810th Brigade, remote mining by "Pentagon" pilots stopped an RF attempt to intercept UAF. This suggests effective UAF counter-interdiction and FPV drone support for ground operations. Oleg Sinegubov, Governor of Kharkiv Oblast, reports RF attacked a civilian vehicle with a drone in Shevchenkivska community, confirming continued RF targeting of civilian transport. MoD Russia reports 215th Combined Arms Army's motorised rifle regiment (Zapad Group of Forces) conducting drills with AGS-17 Plamya at a training ground in the SVO zone, indicating continued RF combat training and the importance of AGS-17. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) reports "Работайте братья" showing "our little birds" (drones) invading Hryshyno, suggesting active RF drone operations in that area (likely Pokrovsk axis). "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares a thermal drone video depicting a Russian soldier attempting to hide from a UAF drone operator (79th Airmobile Brigade), indicating active UAF drone hunter-killer operations and highlighting RF vulnerability. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shares thermal imaging drone footage of a convoy attacked on a dirt road, which the caption attributes to "Anvar" special forces hunting UAF equipment and militants, supporting the Sumy offensive. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of Ukrainian snipers eliminating six Russian assault troops on the Toretsk front, Donetsk Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF milblogger) reports that RF is increasingly using FPV "Zhduny" (waiting/ambush drones) in combat, with the video showing a Ukrainian soldier engaging a stationary target. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts videos showcasing new Russian "Kurier" (Courier) unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) with machine guns and mine-laying capabilities, and 'Fagot' remote-controlled robotic platforms with autocannons and mine-laying systems, indicating advanced robotic combat deployments. Colonelcassad reports on a destroyed dark-colored vehicle and a damaged two-story building (possibly a temporary deployment point, PVD) in Sumy Oblast, with three units of enemy (UAF) automotive equipment destroyed, attributed to Russian operators. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares video of a captured hexacopter "Baba Yaga" being operated by RF forces against its former owners, showcasing adaptive use of captured UAF equipment. Kadyrov_95 shares video footage of the 78th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Sever-Akhmat" conducting artillery strikes on enemy positions, demonstrating active combat operations. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares FPV drone footage showing a truck on a dirt road in a wooded area, indicating active RF reconnaissance and targeting operations in the Iziumskyi district of Kharkiv Oblast. "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares video showing a UAF MiG-29 conducting an aerial attack, described as "master class on dismantling the invaders' battalion headquarters" in Zaporizhzhia (Confidence: MEDIUM). "STERNENKO" shares drone footage indicating successful strikes by the 100th Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBr) against an RF tank, armored fighting vehicle (BBBM), and personnel. The video also shows extensive damage to urban areas. (Confidence: HIGH) MoD Russia shares a video of Russian military personnel preparing and deploying a multi-rotor drone in a dry, grassy field, suggesting reconnaissance or surveillance. (Confidence: HIGH) MoD Russia reports that in Dnepropetrovsk region, operators of the Vostok Group's UAVs successfully overwhelmed control channels of an enemy heavy hexacopter. (Confidence: HIGH) TASS reports RF forces, along with the Antonovsky railway bridge over the Dnipro, have taken control of Alekseevsky Island. This indicates an RF advance in the Kherson direction, potentially securing key positions on the Dnipro River. (Confidence: MEDIUM) "Воин DV" shares archive footage of FPV drone operations on the South Donetsk direction, showing "Vostok" Grouping operators destroying engineering equipment and defensive positions. This reinforces RF's persistent use of FPV drones for tactical advantage. (Confidence: HIGH) RF milbloggers (Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z, Colonelcassad, «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат») are widely reporting that RF forces have penetrated Kupiansk via gas pipes ("Труба 3.0" tactic), describing a "whole underground artery" from Perviy Liman, used for moving assault groups on electric scooters and carts, with the journey taking 4 days. This suggests a highly adaptive and covert infiltration method, with a significant number of troops already dispersed in Kupiansk. (Confidence: HIGH) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UAF milblogger) reports RF struck a communal brigade in Kramatorsk, implying RF targeting of civilian infrastructure maintenance personnel. (Confidence: MEDIUM) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports RF killed civilians near Kramatorsk using a "Molniya" UAV. The accompanying video shows a car hit by an explosive strike on a dirt road. This is a grave allegation of a war crime. (Confidence: HIGH) Kotsnews and Рыбарь share drone footage, accompanied by map overlays (including "Deep State" watermark), showing a person, likely a soldier, in a trench or concealed position in a wooded area, possibly near Kupiansk. The "Купянский рывок" (Kupiansk Breakthrough) caption suggests these milbloggers are documenting RF advances or UAF defensive positions in the Kupiansk sector, confirming continued high-intensity combat in this area. (Confidence: HIGH) TASS reports that Russian forces have advanced near Kupiansk and taken two railway stations under fire control, according to Марочко. (Confidence: HIGH) Colonelcassad posts video of drone footage from what appears to be a military operation near Hryshyno, depicting a motorcycle group, thermal imaging of a vehicle and skull icon, and later identifying a pickup truck and an artillery piece. The video seems to document reconnaissance and possible targeting activities. (Confidence: HIGH) TASS reports RF forces have taken control of forests southwest of Vovchansk. This indicates continued RF pressure and localized territorial gains in the Kharkiv direction. (Confidence: HIGH) TASS reports RF forces are advancing on Siversk in the DPR from three sides, intensifying pressure on UAF. (Confidence: HIGH). TASS reports RF forces have started battles for Zvanovka near Siversk in the DPR. (Confidence: HIGH). TASS reports the AFU went into deep defense in the Orikhiv direction, with RF claiming full control of the front line, destruction of UAF sabotage/reconnaissance groups, and pushing the enemy back, with "grey zones" also under RF control. (Confidence: HIGH).

Deep strikes persist on Ukrainian energy, industrial, and civilian infrastructure across 15 oblasts. Confirmed damage to the Sumy Oblast Administration (OVA) building, Ukrainian Government Headquarters in Kyiv, Sokil ice arena, Cabinet of Ministers building, and the Trypilska TPP. The death toll from the aviation bomb strike on Yarova, Donetsk Oblast, has risen to 25. Civilian casualties and damage from combined missile and drone attacks are confirmed in Vinnytsia (31 injured), Khmelnytskyi (sewing factory destroyed, 3 injured), Zhytomyr (1 killed, 5 injured), and Kramatorsk (central square, residential areas, market hit by drones). An energy object in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast has been hit by drones. Zaporizhzhia suffered a drone attack on a residential building, injuring two civilians, with four additional wounded reported from attacks on Prymorske and Zaporizhzhia. The 68-year-old man severely injured in a drone strike on Prymorske yesterday has died in hospital. Mykolaiv has experienced drone threats and explosions. Berdychiv (Zhytomyr Oblast) was hit by missile strikes. An enemy strike on an educational institution and the Holy Resurrection Cathedral in Sumy is confirmed. A "Shahed" drone hit one of Chernihiv's enterprises, causing a fire. Strikes on Nikopol region continued all day, affecting Nikopol, Marhanets, Pokrovsk, Myrove, and Chervonohryhorivka communities with artillery and drones. Acting Mayor of Sumy, Artem Kobzar, confirms two drone strikes on a non-residential building in Sumy, with casualty information being clarified. RBC-Ukraine reports RF struck a "promyslova zona" (industrial zone) on the outskirts of Sumy with drones. Explosions and a significant fire are reported at an oil depot in Smolensk Oblast and Primorsk port in Leningrad Oblast, attributed to UAF drone attacks. RBC-Ukraine reports an update, confirming one security guard killed under the rubble in Sumy. RBC-Ukraine reports RF launched missiles at Sumy Oblast, causing fatalities and destruction in residential areas, confirming continued RF missile targeting of civilian populations. RBC-Ukraine reports 2 people killed and 5 houses destroyed in a village in Sumy Oblast due to RF strike. ASTRA reports three people killed after a Russian attack in Sumy Oblast, as confirmed by local authorities. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports two people killed and five injured in the village of Bytytsia, Sumy Oblast, as a result of a missile strike, confirming the ASTRA report and specifying the location. STERNENKO (UAF milblogger) and Sumy Oblast Military Administration (OVA) confirm one person killed in Sumy due to RF drone strike this morning. "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" reports "Another tragedy in Nikopol region, caused by enemy terror." The accompanying images, however, do not show military targets or direct damage, but rather a neglected civilian vehicle. This implies an ongoing, if less severe, impact on civilian life from RF actions, though the immediate assessment of the photos indicates no direct military significance. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares video of an alleged UAV strike on a Transneft oil pumping station "Vtorovo" in Vladimir Oblast, Russia, if verified, this represents a significant expansion of UAF deep strike range and target type. Colonelcassad reports FAB guided aerial bomb strikes on UAF positions in Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, indicating continued RF use of KABs on rear areas. TASS reports 1 killed, 6 wounded in Kherson Oblast due to UAF shelling, which RF will use for IO. ASTRA reports the woman killed in Belgorod this morning died from the impact of a "Pantsir" air defense missile booster, confirming RF air defense malfunction/collateral damage and contradicting earlier RF claims. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports an "explosive morning" in Leningrad Oblast, with videos of explosions, reinforcing previous UAF deep strike claims. Colonelcassad provides a "chronicle of strikes on Ukraine" for 11-12 September, indicating ongoing RF analysis and reporting of its own strike activities. "Alex Parker Returns" shares video of an alleged strike on a fuel object in Vladimir Oblast, further supporting the claim of a UAF deep strike on a Transneft oil pumping station and commenting on the lack of RF air defense. "Север.Реалии" reports that the woman killed in Belgorod was killed by a "Pantsir" air defense missile booster, reaffirming the ASTRA report. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's video highlights restoration work on energy facilities, construction of protective structures for transformers, and winter preparations in Zaporizhzhia, following enemy attacks. TASS reports a UAF drone attacked the Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant, hitting ancillary facilities and breaking several windows, but not affecting safety. Colonelcassad reports a UAF drone attack on the Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) and "Военкор Котенок" also amplify the claim of UAF attacking the Smolensk NPP, framing it as "nuclear terrorism." ASTRA, citing SBU sources, confirms the strike on Primorsk oil loading port. Росатом (RF State Nuclear Energy Corporation) reports no damage to critical infrastructure at the Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant, only minor damage to a fence and an administrative building from a Ukrainian drone. This contradicts previous reports of ancillary facilities being hit, reducing the scope of potential damage and RF's previous claims of "nuclear terrorism" framing. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UAF milblogger) provides an analysis of the alleged UAF UAV strike on the Transneft oil pumping station "Vtorovo," concluding that a "Lyutyy" UAV hit a technological overpass with pipelines, signal, and power cables. This provides specific BDA and target information, increasing the confidence in the success and impact of the strike. ASTRA reports that two berths and an oil tanker were damaged in the Primorsk oil loading port after a UAV attack, providing additional BDA for the UAF deep strike. TASS reports the body of a third deceased person was discovered on Elbrus after a cable car accident, a civilian incident (Confidence: HIGH). TASS reports one teenager died and two were injured in a pit bike collision with a truck in Stavropol, a civilian incident (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares a video which visually represents an animated scheme of strikes on the territory of Ukraine between September 11-12, 2025. This indicates a summary of recent RF strike operations (Confidence: HIGH). The new messages from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (18:07:31, 18:07:31) show videos of a large industrial facility engulfed in flames and dark smoke. The timestamp and description suggest this may be additional BDA from a UAF deep strike, potentially in the Leningrad or Smolensk Oblasts as previously reported, or a new target. The scale of the fire indicates a significant incident.

Reports indicate at least eight explosions in occupied Donetsk, with TASS claiming UAF missile attacks repelled. Mash on Donbas reports power outages in Kyivskyi district of Donetsk and damaged windows in a traumatology hospital and nearby residential buildings, with a new video claiming a multi-apartment building in Donetsk was hit, "presumably by NATO MLRS." UAF FPV drones reportedly attacked a civilian vehicle near Polyana, Starodubsky Municipal District, Belgorod Oblast, Russia. ASTRA reports 6 people were injured in attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Belgorod Oblast, with a Pyaterochka supermarket among the affected targets. An ammunition depot in occupied Luhansk is also reported to be exploding due to UAF drone strikes. An attack by over 30 UAVs was repelled in three municipalities of Rostov Oblast, causing damage to a private house and two cars, but no casualties. A massive drone attack was launched on Leningrad Oblast overnight, with a fire reported on a vessel in Primorsk port, which has since been extinguished. ASTRA reports a fire on a pumping station in Primorsk was also extinguished, without casualties. TASS reports one person killed and 24 injured over two days in Belgorod Oblast from UAF attacks. Russian MoD claims to have shot down 221 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions overnight, with 9 of them over the Moscow region. Russian Governor Gladkov (Belgorod Oblast) reports 1 killed, 24 injured in Belgorod Oblast over two days from UAF attacks. Bryansk Oblast Governor reports UAF strikes on a passenger minibus, injuring 5 people, including 2 "Bars-Bryansk" fighters. WarGonzo further clarifies seven people wounded in a mass drone attack on Bryansk Oblast. Mash on Donbas reports a large traffic jam towards Khartsyzk due to an accident, with a military-style truck present, potentially indicating local logistical disruption or increased security measures for RF forces. Поддубный (RF milblogger) reports two people killed in Belgorod Oblast due to UAF drone attacks over the past three days, specifically mentioning a woman killed this morning in Belgorod city, and overall 24 injured, reiterating and amplifying previous reports of civilian casualties. ASTRA reports the mayor of Belgorod confirms a woman killed by a UAF strike in Belgorod. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (UAF milblogger) shares graphic video footage depicting the aftermath of what appears to be an artillery strike in a rural area, showing multiple deceased and dismembered individuals. The context implies high-casualty combat or indiscriminate targeting of personnel, further underscoring the brutality of the conflict. RBC-Ukraine reports that SBU drones have hit the Primorsk port, leading to suspension of oil shipments. This is a significant claim regarding the impact on RF energy exports. Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF milblogger) reports a shootout with two fatalities occurred in an auto service office in Lviv Oblast, confirming an internal security incident. Басурин о главном (RF milblogger) shares a map depicting alleged Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian regions outside the SVO zone, claiming "terrorist war against civilians." Maria Zakharova (RF MFA spokesperson) confirms RF's narrative of Ukrainian "terrorist war" against Russian civilians, citing specific incidents in Belgorod, Bryansk, Moscow, and Voronezh regions, as well as alleged shelling in DPR/LPR. RBC-Україна reports on the possibility of a nuclear accident at the "Neutron Source" facility in Kharkiv due to RF strikes. Mash on Donbas reports that a house in Makeyevka, DPR, previously damaged, has now been declared unsafe. TASS reports two people, a married couple, were killed in a cable car accident on Elbrus, in Russia, a civilian incident.

UAV activity remains extremely high. UAF Air Force reports 62 of 66 enemy UAV targets were shot down/suppressed overnight. Groups of enemy UAVs are entering southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast from Temporarily Occupied Territories (TOT), course - north/northwest, and additional KABs are launched on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. RF claims destruction of 225 Ukrainian UAVs, one Neptune guided missile, and three HIMARS MLRS rockets over the past day. RF reconnaissance UAVs are active in the Black Sea towards Odesa and in Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts. RF drones are confirmed active across central, western, and northern Ukraine. UAF Air Force reports guided aerial bombs launched on Donetsk Oblast and Sumy Oblast. A RF kamikaze drone "Upyr" was reported engaging a UAF interceptor drone near Prykolotne, Kharkiv. UAF 'Lazar' unit utilized FPV drones to destroy a bridge near Nova Tavolzhanka. A Ukrainian "Yozhka" drone was reportedly shot down near Lyman. Reconnaissance UAVs are reported in central Chernihiv Oblast. A captured Ukrainian reconnaissance drone ("Shark") was showcased, claimed to be destroyed by RF "Fever" fighters. UAF thermal imaging drone video shows a series of artillery strikes impacting Russian military positions in Kharkiv direction. RF drone footage showcases identification and engagement of various enemy assets including a pickup truck, a Leopard-1 tank, artillery, an unknown vehicle, and a 'BABA-YAGA' drone. UAF General Staff reports RF combat losses over the last 24 hours include 890 personnel. UAF General Staff reports 890 RF personnel eliminated over the past 24 hours (Sept 11-12). UAF General Staff provides a tactical map analysis of enemy failed attempts to advance. RF milblogger Colonelcassad presents video of FPV drone operations targeting UAF transport in forest belts of Chernihiv Oblast. Ukrainian Defense Forces (DSHV) share video of RF "motorcycle assaults," depicting both RF tactics and UAF counter-engagement. UAF Air Force reports 33 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed, indicating continued air defense effectiveness against persistent RF drone attacks. RBC-Ukraine reports RF launched 40 drones overnight, including 20 Shaheds, with 33 shot down. RF milblogger Colonelcassad presents video evidence of RF snipers successfully downing Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" heavy strike drones on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. UAF 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" shares video of new advanced UAVs being deployed. Colonelcassad reports 221 Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted and destroyed by RF air defense overnight. This is a significant claim, almost matching the previous RF MOD claim. ASTRA reports the Ukrainian Air Force states Russia attacked with 40 drones overnight. UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity in northern Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, indicating continued ISR pressure on the northern border. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports air strike warnings for Zaporizhzhia, indicating continued aerial threat. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares multiple videos depicting night-time explosions and missile trails, including an alleged UAV strike on Primorsk Port and a significant explosion in an urban/industrial area, reinforcing UAF deep strike claims. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports new reconnaissance UAV activity on the north of Chernihiv and east of Sumy Oblasts, indicating persistent RF ISR. Kotsnews reports RF is testing a "heavy drone evading EW," potentially indicating new RF drone development. "Два майора" shares an image of an alleged Ukrainian drone payload, implying UAF drone attacks. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports no information on destruction or casualties at 101, 102, 103, regarding current air raid activity in Zaporizhzhia. This confirms ongoing vigilance but no confirmed impact yet. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shares video titled "Работайте братья" depicting RF drone operations, indicating active deployment of UAVs. Kotsnews shares drone footage of an artillery impact, showing a soldier moving through smoky terrain, underscoring ongoing combat. "Два майора" shares video of a Russian exhibition of UAVs and counter-drone technologies ("Дронница"), suggesting a significant investment in developing drone capabilities. MoD Russia reports that from 6 to 12 September, RF conducted one massive and six group strikes against Ukrainian defense industry, transport, and energy infrastructure, military airfields, and depots. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares new video footage from a drone's perspective, showing active combat operations with explosions and destruction of military vehicles in wooded and open areas, indicating continued RF drone surveillance and targeting. STERNENKO (UAF milblogger) reports 5 more enemy UAVs shot down, sharing drone footage of a small, white, fixed-wing UAV ("SKY RUSORIZ") flying over a rural area, indicating ongoing UAF counter-UAV efforts and potential fundraising for this project. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports a threat of aviation munition use in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykove district). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a strike UAV in northern Kherson Oblast moving southwest. Colonelcassad reports a hexacopter "Baba Yaga" was shot down by "Viking" operators with one precise strike, showing continued RF counter-UAV efforts. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a threat of aviation munitions use for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. "Военкор Котенок" shares photo of wreckage of a Ukrainian Su-27, claimed to be shot down yesterday in Zaporizhzhia (Confidence: HIGH). "Военкор Котенок" provides an immediate assessment of the wreckage (Confidence: HIGH). "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the air raid alert has been lifted for Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Confidence: HIGH). MoD Russia shares a video of Russian military personnel preparing and deploying a multi-rotor drone in a dry, grassy field, suggesting reconnaissance or surveillance. (Confidence: HIGH) MoD Russia reports that in Dnepropetrovsk region, operators of the Vostok Group's UAVs successfully overwhelmed control channels of an enemy heavy hexacopter. (Confidence: HIGH) Підрозділ Shadow (UAF milblogger) shares video showing drone footage of Ukrainian forces engaged in combat operations against Russian soldiers in trench positions, with an explosion visible near the trench, indicating active engagements and UAF drone reconnaissance/targeting (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares an animated scheme of strikes on the territory of Ukraine between September 11-12, 2025, detailing Geran and UMPK (guided aerial bombs) targeting Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. This provides a clear overview of RF's recent air/missile activity (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAVs in southern Kharkiv Oblast moving west/south (18:12:23), indicating continued RF drone activity in the region. РБК-Україна shares an updated map of air raid alerts in Ukraine (18:14:54), indicating ongoing aerial threats in various regions. STERNENKO (UAF milblogger) reports on "Drone safety" in several Russian oblasts (Rostov, Smolensk, Kaluga, Voronezh, Saratov, Tambov, Volgograd, Belgorod, Bryansk, Kuban, and occupied Crimea), implying UAF drone activity or threats in these areas. (Confidence: MEDIUM) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast moving westward. (Confidence: HIGH) РБК-Україна shares an updated map of enemy drone movements, indicating ongoing aerial threats. (Confidence: HIGH) MoD Russia shares drone footage of military vehicles being targeted by FPV drones, including trucks and armored vehicles, with successful strikes visible. The video also shows a camouflaged armored vehicle under artillery strike. This confirms active RF FPV drone and artillery operations against UAF targets. (Confidence: HIGH) Kotsnews and Рыбарь share drone footage with map overlays indicating an overhead view of a wooded area, showing a soldier in a trench or concealed position. The captions "Купянский рывок" suggest this is related to RF operations or UAF defenses in the Kupiansk sector. (Confidence: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a new group of strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast moving south, and others on the south of Mykolaiv Oblast heading towards Odesa. (Confidence: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports explosions in Odesa. (Confidence: HIGH) Colonelcassad posts an interview with a civilian, Aleksandr Aleksandrovich Gudkov, who describes being detained, threatened, and robbed by Russian soldiers in Sudzha, Kursk Oblast. (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна (00:15:16) reports almost 50 UN member states condemned RF drone attack on Poland, suggesting continued international support for Ukraine in diplomatic forums. UPDATE: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on Donetsk Oblast, strike UAVs in Kherson Oblast moving towards Mykolaiv Oblast, and KABs on Sumy Oblast. (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна shares photo messages with a map of Ukraine indicating air alerts, showing strike UAVs in Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts. (Confidence: HIGH).

Ukrainian HUR (Main Intelligence Directorate) units successfully struck and disabled an RF Black Sea Fleet vessel (Project MPSV07) near Novorossiysk. Russian channels are circulating video of a missile attack on artillery depots of RF's "Dnipro" Grouping of Forces located in Sonyachna Dolyna near Sudak in occupied Crimea. Ukrainian "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares multiple videos and text suggesting successful UAF drone attacks causing fires and explosions in Smolensk and Leningrad Oblasts, including a LUKOIL facility and Primorsk. The 46th Separate Airmobile Podilsky Brigade of the UAF DSHV shares photos celebrating a soldier who "burned 16 tanks and returned every time after being wounded," an internal UAF morale-boosting message. Colonelcassad shares video claiming an optical fiber FPV drone "VT-40" destroyed a storage site of 155mm M203A1 propelling charges, with a stated range of 30km. This, if verified, demonstrates effective RF counter-battery intelligence and drone-based targeting of UAF artillery logistics. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" and TASS report new batches of BMP-3s with enhanced protection kits and BMD-2s (after overhaul and modernization) have been delivered to RF troops, indicating sustained military production and improved armored vehicle capabilities. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) provides a series of photos under the caption "#Филия," which are tactical map screenshots of the Novopavlovsk direction. These images appear to depict Russian advances and territorial control in this area, indicating ongoing offensive operations or consolidation of gains, though the specific details of the map legend and symbols are not fully discernable without further context. "Воин DV" (RF milblogger) provides video footage claiming the "liberation" of Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by "Vostok" Grouping, with supporting drone footage of artillery strikes and claimed M-777 destruction. TASS provides video of Northern Fleet deployments for "West-2025" exercises, showcasing frigates, destroyers, and submarines, highlighting large-scale naval activity. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shares video of alleged liberation of Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by RF MOD, reinforcing Colonelcassad's claim. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the 141st Mechanized Brigade has received Croatian M-84 tanks, indicating continued Western military aid and UAF modernization. TASS reports the Pacific Fleet has started planned exercises with nuclear submarines and Bastion coastal missile systems, indicating further large-scale RF naval exercises. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares video of a military chaplain interacting with soldiers, offering spiritual support in combat zones, indicating efforts to boost morale through religious means. MoD Russia shares video of Northern Fleet forces deployed in near-shore and off-shore maritime zones for Zapad 2025, confirming naval component of the exercises. "Сливочный каприз" shares charts indicating the "Pace of offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces in the SMO zone," claiming advances of up to 40 km² per day, providing RF's internal assessment of offensive tempo. Colonelcassad reports an ongoing criminal case against former head of RF Ministry of Defense military representation, Andrei Tyurin, for abuse of power in state defense orders. "Сливочный каприз" shares drone footage of a settlement under artillery bombardment (Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk area), confirming continued ground pressure. "Воин DV" comments on Ukraine's delayed admission of territorial losses, indicating RF's view of UAF's information control. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF milblogger) shares video showing armored personnel carriers (APCs) or infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) moving in formation through wooded and open terrain, an attack helicopter (Ka-52 or Mi-28) in flight, a Tu-160 strategic bomber on a runway, and naval operations with warships, a hovercraft, and a submarine, with the caption "Кадры начала учений "Запад-2025"", confirming the commencement of large-scale military exercises involving multiple RF service branches. "Два майора" (RF milblogger) and "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" (RF milblogger) make public appeals for donations for their respective units, suggesting direct support for their operations. Colonelcassad posts a video about a "Collection for the 4th auto column," showcasing the restoration and modification of a civilian vehicle (likely a Niva) with military-inspired paint and "Z" symbols, indicating ongoing volunteer efforts to supply vehicles for RF forces. "Воин DV" shares a video from the Zaporizhzhia direction featuring a soldier with the callsign "Kizovsky," showing the work of an evacuation group under fire, including destroyed military equipment and bodies of deceased soldiers, with a Turkish self-loading rifle (AKdal MKA-1919) identified in the footage. This highlights intense combat and ongoing efforts to retrieve casualties and equipment. "Старше Эдды" shares a video titled "Svoi. Douglas — Cortes: on the work of reactive artillery and loyalty to the Russian army," which likely features RF reactive artillery in action and promotes loyalty narratives. "Старше Эдды" also shares a video from Senior Lieutenant Ivan Kurbatov of the 90th Tank Division, from a tank in a combat zone, delivering a patriotic message to Moscow. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video depicting Ukrainian soldiers carrying a body on a stretcher through wooded and open terrain, implying ongoing casualty evacuation operations. "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares a video showing a UAF MiG-29 conducting an aerial attack, described as "master class on dismantling the invaders' battalion headquarters" in Zaporizhzhia (Confidence: MEDIUM). "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares a video depicting drone thermal imaging footage of a moving vehicle at night, with a crosshair reticle, suggesting active surveillance or targeting. (Confidence: HIGH) "Игорь Артамонов" shares video depicting civilian development projects, including school construction and kindergarten renovation, unrelated to military operations. (Confidence: HIGH) "Басурин о главном" shares video of a Russian Ministry of Defense meeting discussing economical management principles and digitalization, featuring Shoigu and Belousov, focused on internal efficiency. (Confidence: HIGH) "Два майора" shares video of mobile groups of marine special forces with FPV drones protecting the coast of Crimea from uncrewed surface vessels (BEC) and other threats at night, showing drone deployment and monitoring. (Confidence: HIGH) Colonelcassad shares video of Lada Niva vehicles being painted in matte green camouflage, indicating ongoing volunteer efforts to supply modified civilian vehicles for RF forces. (Confidence: HIGH). MoD Russia shares a video detailing servicemen of the 37th Separate Guards Motorised Rifle Brigade (Vostok Group of Forces) liberating Novopetrovskoye (Dnepropetrovsk region) during offensive operations. This confirms unit involvement in a key territorial gain (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad (18:17:02) shares graphic photo messages of alleged UAF serviceman remains in the border zone. While I cannot analyze the content directly, the presence of such imagery from an RF milblogger aims to fuel IO narratives of UAF losses and atrocities. ТАСС (18:23:46) shares a video of rescuers evacuating a third body from a cable car accident on Elbrus. This is a civilian incident, but RF milbloggers may use such events to show the resilience of Russian emergency services or to divert attention. Kadyrov_95 (18:26:17) shares a video of the opening of a newly renovated highway from Grozny. This civilian infrastructure project aims to project normalcy, economic development, and positive governance, serving as internal morale-boosting IO. Zelenskiy / Official (18:28:53) and КМВА (18:29:22) share videos of President Zelenskyy meeting with advisors from UK, Germany, France, and Italy to discuss support and security guarantees. This confirms high-level diplomatic efforts to secure continued Western aid. Два майора (18:33:00) shares video of thermal imaging from a drone, showing multiple explosions and artillery impacts in the Siverske direction. This indicates active RF artillery and drone operations in that area, likely targeting UAF positions or concentrations.

UPDATE: Оперативний ЗСУ (18:10:05) highlights an urgent need for a retranslator for the 72nd Brigade on the Kupiansk direction, indicating potential communication and C2 challenges for this UAF unit. The UAF General Staff (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS 18:17:55, Оперативний ЗСУ 18:30:14) is considering implementing mobile network shutdowns or internet slowdowns during air raid alerts, a significant control measure impacting friendly forces and civilian population alike. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (18:42:02) shares drone footage of a destroyed and burning vehicle, identifying it as a civilian vehicle struck by an RF "Molniya" kamikaze drone near Kramatorsk. This highlights the ongoing threat to civilian movement and confirms RF's disregard for non-combatants. DeepState (18:54:31) and Оперативний ЗСУ (19:01:50, 19:03:35) reveal RF forces utilizing gas pipes to cross the Oskil River and infiltrate Kupiansk, demonstrating an adaptive and covert infiltration tactic that UAF forces will need to counter. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (19:00:57) shares an interview with the former mayor of Kherson, Volodymyr Mykolaenko, discussing perceived failures in the initial defense of Kherson, which may be relevant for UAF internal reviews and accountability. TASS reports RF forces have taken control of Alekseevsky Island along with the Antonovsky railway bridge over the Dnipro. This indicates an RF advance in the Kherson direction, potentially securing key positions on the Dnipro River. (Confidence: MEDIUM) "Воин DV" shares archive footage of FPV drone operations on the South Donetsk direction, showing "Vostok" Grouping operators destroying engineering equipment and defensive positions. This reinforces RF's persistent use of FPV drones for tactical advantage. (Confidence: HIGH) RF milbloggers (Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z, Colonelcassad, «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат») are widely reporting that RF forces have penetrated Kupiansk via gas pipes ("Труба 3.0" tactic), describing a "whole underground artery" from Perviy Liman, used for moving assault groups on electric scooters and carts, with the journey taking 4 days. This suggests a highly adaptive and covert infiltration method, with a significant number of troops already dispersed in Kupiansk. (Confidence: HIGH) MoD Russia shares drone footage of military vehicles being targeted by FPV drones, including trucks and armored vehicles, with successful strikes visible. The video also shows a camouflaged armored vehicle under artillery strike. This confirms active RF FPV drone and artillery operations against UAF targets. (Confidence: HIGH) TASS reports that the USA has imposed restrictions against entities in several countries, accusing them of supplying various products to the Russian Federation. This indicates continued Western economic pressure on Russia. (Confidence: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video featuring a young Polish volunteer, Wojciech Antoni, serving in the 25th Airborne Brigade in Ukraine. This highlights the presence of foreign fighters and cross-border solidarity against RF aggression. (Confidence: HIGH) TASS reports that the majority of UN countries did not sign a statement on RF's involvement in the UAV incident in Poland. This is an RF IO attempt to counter accusations and sow doubt about its responsibility. (Confidence: HIGH) TASS shares a photo message stating that the Central Election Commission (CEC) will analyze electoral legislation and prepare proposals for its improvement after the unified voting day. This is a domestic RF IO message aimed at projecting democratic process and good governance. (Confidence: HIGH) TASS reports that Russian forces have advanced near Kupiansk and taken two railway stations under fire control, according to Марочко. (Confidence: HIGH) TASS reports US authorities believe Kirk's killer acted alone. (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts photo messages and text regarding Poland's reaction to alleged Russian UAV incursions, highlighting the "Why us?" sentiment and perceived NATO preparations. (Confidence: HIGH). Операция Z (RusVesna) reports the majority of UN countries did not support Poland's accusations against Russia regarding UAV incursions. (Confidence: HIGH). TASS reports the USA stated to other G7 countries that they should impose duties against buyers of Russian oil. (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts video of drone footage from what appears to be a military operation near Hryshyno, depicting a motorcycle group, thermal imaging of a vehicle and skull icon, and later identifying a pickup truck and an artillery piece. The video seems to document reconnaissance and possible targeting activities. (Confidence: HIGH) TASS reports RF forces have taken control of forests southwest of Vovchansk. This indicates continued RF pressure and localized territorial gains in the Kharkiv direction. (Confidence: HIGH) TASS reports RF forces are advancing on Siversk in the DPR from three sides, intensifying pressure on UAF. (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad (00:28:01) posts photo messages with the caption "Убийство Кирка по новостным заголовкам" (Kirk's Murder by News Headlines). This indicates RF milbloggers are leveraging the Kirk assassination for IO, likely to sow distrust in Western narratives or exploit internal US political events. UPDATE: TASS reports that residents of Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Kyiv-controlled parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts are being mobilized into the UAF more frequently than others. This suggests targeted mobilization efforts by UAF in these regions, which RF will use for IO. (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad (01:03:01) reports TCC officers beat a man in Dnipro, sharing video. (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: TASS (03:28:24Z) reports that the military commandant of a railway station, Mikhail Demidov, prevented the destruction of an RF ammunition train. This suggests an active UAF interdiction attempt against a critical RF logistical asset. (Confidence: HIGH)

• 03:37:53Z, ТАСС: RF Armed Forces, during a night assault, occupied UAF positions in a forest belt in the South Donetsk direction. Reported by a senior rifleman of the "Vostok" assault group with callsign Mamai. (Confidence: HIGH)
• 03:47:01Z, ТАСС: A UAF group is surrounded in a forest area near Ambarnoye in Kharkiv Oblast. This was reported to TASS by Russian security forces. (Confidence: HIGH)
• 04:02:26Z, ТАСС: Bastion complexes from Franz Josef Land struck conditional enemy targets with Oniks missiles as part of "West-2025" exercises. (Confidence: HIGH)
• 04:10:16Z, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦: A 38-year-old woman sustained injuries due to enemy shelling in Zaporizhzhia Raion. (Confidence: HIGH)
• 04:15:33Z, РБК-Україна: A military drone was washed ashore on a beach in Bulgaria. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
• 04:30:05Z, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА): Aggressor targeted Nikopol Raion with FPV drones and artillery, attacking the district center and Marhanets community. Photo message shows damage consistent with shelling. (Confidence: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (Confidence: HIGH)

Conditions remained generally clear and favorable for air operations, including missile and UAV strikes across most of Ukraine. Localized heavy rainfall caused significant flooding in Kyiv. Expected thunderstorms in Kharkiv could temporarily impact local air operations. Storm weather is reported in Donetsk. RF tactical aviation is actively launching KABs on Sumy, Donetsk, and northern Kharkiv Oblasts. A ballistic missile threat from the northeast has been reported and subsequently lifted for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reconnaissance UAVs are active in the Black Sea towards Odesa and in Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts. RF drones are confirmed active across central, western, and northern Ukraine. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is under missile threat, with drone attacks confirmed on Synelnykove. A nationwide air raid alert was active due to the launch of an RF MiG-31K, a carrier of the "Kinzhal" aeroballistic missile, which was subsequently lifted. Fields and dry grass caught fire on the outskirts of Yenakiieve, potentially impacting visibility. Over 201 hectares of Kharkiv Oblast territory demined in a week. Krasnodar airport has reopened for civilian flights for the first time since the start of the war, indicating an improving logistical environment in southern RF. A Mi-8 helicopter made a hard landing in Kaliningrad due to bad weather. Poland has closed its border with Belarus, with military personnel deploying barricades and concertina wire. Air defense forces are active against UAVs over the southwestern part of Leningrad Oblast, and Pulkovo airport has implemented a "Carpet" plan (airspace closure). Enemy UAVs are detected in eastern Sumy Oblast, moving west. Additional UAVs heading towards Moscow have been destroyed. Pulkovo airport has warned of possible schedule adjustments. Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation are reported in Sumy Oblast. Enemy strike UAVs are detected in the Kakhovka region (Kherson Oblast), moving towards Mykolaiv Oblast. Over 20 UAVs have been destroyed over Leningrad Oblast, with debris fall recorded in Tosno. Enemy drones are approaching Kharkiv from the east. Air defense is active in Kyiv Oblast. Restrictions have been imposed in the airports of Ivanovo, Pskov, Yaroslavl, and St. Petersburg overnight. Enemy UAVs are detected in the northeastern part of Sumy Oblast. An explosion has been heard in Sumy, followed by several more explosions amidst drone activity. A ballistic missile threat from Kursk Oblast has been issued and subsequently lifted. The fire on a vessel in Primorsk port has been extinguished. "West-2025" joint exercises of Belarusian and Russian armed forces have started on training grounds in both countries and in the Baltic and Barents Seas. TASS reports "Pobeda" airline is adjusting flight schedules due to temporary restrictions at Pulkovo airport and Leningrad Oblast airspace, with some flights delayed. ASTRA reports 28 flights delayed, 13 cancelled, and 11 diverted at Pulkovo airport due to drone attacks. UAF Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by RF tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. TASS reports that flight restrictions have been lifted at the airports of Ivanovo and Yaroslavl. TASS reports that flight service for departures has resumed at Pulkovo airport. UAF Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by RF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast, indicating persistent air support for ground operations. "Север.Реалии" reports Pskov Governor has moved information about drone attacks to the state messenger Max, possibly indicating increased sensitivity or control over public information regarding deep strikes. "Новости Москвы" reports geomagetic disturbances from a new coronal hole may last up to 6 days, which could potentially impact satellite communications or other electronic systems. "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" issues an air raid alert and "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports KABs on Zaporizhzhia, indicating continued RF use of guided aerial bombs in the area, likely for close air support of ground operations. TASS reports earthquake in Bishkek, likely unrelated to conflict, but can serve as a distraction for RF population. TASS reports Pskov airport restrictions have been lifted, indicating a return to normalcy for this civilian air hub, previously impacted by UAF deep strikes. TASS and Новости Москвы report a record dry start to autumn in Moscow, which could impact agriculture and increase fire risk, but has no direct military significance at this time. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports the air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia city has been lifted, but missile danger for the region persists, indicating localized and ongoing threats. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports the air raid alert has been fully lifted, indicating a temporary cessation of immediate aerial threats in the region. UAF Air Force reports enemy attack UAVs heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast from northern Kherson Oblast. TASS reports the Northern Fleet has deployed forces in the Arctic Ocean for "West-2025" exercises. Germany's MFA summoned the Russian ambassador regarding the drone incident in Poland, highlighting the diplomatic severity of these events. Mash on Donbas reports explosions over Donetsk and active air defense, indicating continued aerial threats in the occupied territories. TASS reports Aeroflot has opened ticket sales for direct flights from Krasnodar for international programs, confirming further normalization of air travel from this southern RF hub. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" issues a threat of aviation munition use in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykove district). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia. Повітряні Сиили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a threat of aviation munitions use for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Новости Москвы reports anticipated frosts down to -2°C in some areas of Moscow region, which could impact ground operations and personnel comfort in the coming days. STERNENKO (UAF milblogger) reports that Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania have partially closed their airspace, indicating a direct response to recent RF drone incursions and heightened regional security. "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" reports the air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA reports that Lithuania and Estonia have closed their airspace for the duration of the Russian-Belarusian military exercises "West-2025." (Confidence: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAVs in southern Kharkiv Oblast moving west/south (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a ballistic missile threat from the east (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports a high-speed target in Kharkiv Oblast moving west (Confidence: HIGH). AV БогомаZ reports that RF MOD air defense units detected and suppressed a UAF UAV over Bryansk Oblast (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:10:24) reports the lifting of a ballistic missile threat, likely for Zaporizhzhia given the previous alert, indicating a temporary cessation of immediate aerial danger in that region. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (18:10:59) confirms the air raid alert has been lifted, supporting the Air Force report for Zaporizhzhia.

UPDATE: The UAF Air Force (18:12:23) reports strike UAVs in southern Kharkiv Oblast are moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating a continued aerial threat. An updated map of air raid alerts in Ukraine from РБК-Україна (18:14:54) shows ongoing aerial threats in various regions. TASS (18:56:06) reports KAB launches on Sumy Oblast, indicating continued RF aerial bombardment. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast moving westward. (Confidence: HIGH) РБК-Україна shares an updated map of enemy drone movements, indicating ongoing aerial threats. (Confidence: HIGH) Prolonged geomagnetic storms are expected to begin on Sunday, potentially lasting up to six days. This could significantly impact satellite communications, GPS, and other electronic systems critical for both friendly and enemy operations. (Confidence: MEDIUM) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a new group of strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast moving south, and others on the south of Mykolaiv Oblast heading towards Odesa. (Confidence: HIGH) RBC-Ukraine reports explosions in Odesa. (Confidence: HIGH) Colonelcassad posts an interview with a civilian, Aleksandr Aleksandrovich Gudkov, who describes being detained, threatened, and robbed by Russian soldiers in Sudzha, Kursk Oblast. (Confidence: HIGH). TASS (00:22:01) reports that August temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere were the third highest on record. This is a general environmental factor but does not directly impact current military operations. UPDATE: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs on Donetsk Oblast, strike UAVs in Kherson Oblast moving towards Mykolaiv Oblast, and KABs on Sumy Oblast. (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна shares photo messages with a map of Ukraine indicating air alerts, showing strike UAVs in Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts. (Confidence: HIGH).

NEW MESSAGES

• 01:40:48Z, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Strike UAVs reported in Zaporizhzhia moving towards Kirovohrad Oblast. (Confidence: HIGH)
• 01:46:56Z, РБК-Україна: Confirms strike UAVs in Zaporizhzhia moving towards Kirovohrad Oblast. (Confidence: HIGH)
• 01:55:13Z, РБК-Україна (Photo message): Caption: "😱 RF will not stop at Poland? Ukraine at the UN announced where to expect enemy drones next." (Confidence: HIGH)
• 01:55:14Z, РБК-Україна: Image of a man in a suit, gesturing, likely a Ukrainian representative at the UN. (Confidence: HIGH)
• 02:03:01Z, Colonelcassad (Video message): Caption details Chinese Air Force combat training for fighter and refueling aircraft (Yun-20U refueling Jian-16 fighters, day/night operations). (Confidence: HIGH)
• 02:03:02Z, Colonelcassad (Video message description): Details Chinese Air Force mid-air refueling training, featuring J-11 variants and Y-20 variants, emphasizing range extension and comprehensive mission readiness. (Confidence: HIGH)
• 02:03:37Z, ТАСС (Video message): Caption: "▶️ The AFU went into deep defense in the Orikhiv direction. This was stated to TASS by the commander of a tank battalion of the 70th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 'Dnepr' group, callsign 'Diplom'." (Confidence: HIGH)
• 02:03:38Z, ТАСС (Video message description): Russian soldier discusses tactics, claiming full control of the front line, destruction of UAF sabotage/reconnaissance groups, and pushing the enemy back, with "grey zones" also under RF control. (Confidence: HIGH)
• 02:16:08Z, ТАСС: Temporary restrictions have been introduced at Volgograd and Yaroslavl airports. (Confidence: HIGH)
• 02:30:16Z, ТАСС: A successful launch of "Soyuz-2.1b" from Plesetsk Cosmodrome was carried out in the interests of the RF Ministry of Defense. (Confidence: HIGH)
• 03:14:31Z, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦: Air raid alert lifted for Zaporizhzhia. (Confidence: HIGH)
• 03:18:04Z, ТАСС: Tsunami threat announced on Kamchatka after a 6.3 magnitude earthquake. (Confidence: HIGH)
• 03:22:59Z, РБК-Україна (Video message): Caption: "🔴На Камчатці, у Росії, стався землетрус магнітудою 7,7 бала" (In Kamchatka, Russia, a 7.7 magnitude earthquake occurred). (Confidence: HIGH)
• 03:23:00Z, РБК-Україна (Video message description): Video shows residential building, narrator announces tsunami warning issued by EMERCOM of Russia for Kamchatka. (Confidence: HIGH)
• 03:29:37Z, ТАСС: Fire localized on an area of 4 thousand sq. meters in Priangarye. (Confidence: HIGH)
• 03:58:32Z, ТАСС: A residential building was damaged as a result of a UAV debris fall in Volgograd Oblast. According to preliminary data, there were no destructions, fires, or casualties, the regional administration reported. (Confidence: HIGH)
• 04:02:26Z, ТАСС: [Video message] Caption: ▶️ Комплексы "Бастионы" с Земли Франца Иосифа нанесли удар ракетами "Оникс" по условному противнику в рамках учений "Запад-2025". (Confidence: HIGH)
• 04:02:27Z, ТАСС: The video displays various aspects of Russian military operations in an Arctic environment. It begins with aerial footage of a barren, possibly tundra-like landscape near a body of water, possibly an ocean bay or large lake. Subsequently, it shows military personnel in a command center, followed by more aerial shots revealing military tents, trucks, and what appears to be a radar installation. The latter half of the video focuses on a mobile missile launch system, including close-ups of its components and a dramatic launch sequence with a missile ascending into a cloudy sky. The presence of multiple trucks, the radar system, and the missile launch indicate a coordinated military exercise or deployment. The distinct Arctic environment suggests operations in a strategically important but logistically challenging region. (Confidence: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (Confidence: HIGH)

• RF:
  • Ground Forces: RF continues its multi-axis ground offensive, notably on the Pokrovsk axis (Chynyshyn, Muravka, Krasnoarmeysk), Novopavlivka, Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, South Slobozhansky (Vovchansk), and Kupyansk directions. The "Vostok" Grouping has liberated Sosnovka and Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, aiming to encircle UAF in Velykomykhailivka. Specific units involved include marine infantry, "Somali" battalion elements, and the RF 103rd Regiment. "Otvazhnye" units are heavily engaged near Pokrovsk. TASS reports RF forces have taken control of approximately 50% of Pereyizne, south of Siversk, DPR. RF has introduced 'Kur'er' robotic complexes and "Veterok" fiber-optic drones. "Anvar" special forces are active near the Sumy/Chernihiv border, clearing buffer zones. Rosgvardia has been armed with tank and anti-tank guns, self-propelled artillery, and MLRS, and has executed over 60,000 fire and tactical missions. The RF 238th Brigade claims to have destroyed a UAF UAV control post in Berestok. "Terminator" tank support fighting vehicles are training in a rear area. Rosgvardia has recreated tank units and significantly increased artillery firepower. Assault groups of the 20th Army are undergoing combat training. "West-AHMAT" battalion (RF MoD) and Russian Internal Affairs Ministry (OMVD) personnel, along with the RF 128th Brigade, are engaged in combat operations in the Vovchansk area, Kharkiv direction, using FPV drones. RF forces have "expelled the enemy from Katerynivka" and continue to advance in the Konstantinovka direction, near Kleban-Byk and Pleshcheyevka, and on the Borovskoe direction. Combat is confirmed in the vicinity of Konstantinovka. Airborne units are engaging enemy infantry near Chasiv Yar. RF forces are operating on the Rubtsovsk direction, conducting strikes on trenches, a command post, and a communications tower, with suggested electronic warfare activity. RF forces are actively engaging UAF attempts to regain Udachnoye, utilizing drone-guided strikes. "Молния-2" UAVs from Tula paratroopers reportedly hit a UAF temporary deployment point (PVD) in Sumy Oblast. The "Pyatnashka" International Brigade is active in reconnaissance and artillery roles. FPV drone crews of the RF 68th Motorized Rifle Division are conducting ambushes on UAF transport in forest belts in Kharkiv Oblast. RF UAV operators are disrupting UAF rotations in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The RF 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (Vostok Grouping) is conducting reconnaissance operations in the South Donetsk direction. The 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment is reported to be advancing on the Sumy front, near Yunakovka, utilizing drones for reconnaissance and targeting. Colonelcassad claims RF forces have established control over Kolodyazi and are advancing on the Krasny Liman direction. TASS reports RF troops have "practically dislodged" UAF from Kirovsk on the Krasny Liman direction, indicating a potential significant territorial gain. TASS also reports RF are clearing the outskirts of Krasny Liman near Torske and Kirovsk. RF airborne assault troops (DSHV) are reportedly using motorcycles in combat, as depicted in Ukrainian intelligence video. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) reports RF forces are advancing towards Konstantinovka, breaking through enemy defenses near Predtechino and Pleshcheyevka. "Воин DV" (RF milblogger) shares thermal drone footage of 35th Army Special Forces (Vostok Grouping) targeting UAF personnel with FPV drones and grenade drops in the Polohy direction. WarGonzo (RF milblogger) provides a tactical analysis of the Sumy Front, indicating sustained RF interest and potential for further advances. RF snipers are actively engaged in counter-drone operations, specifically against UAF "Baba Yaga" heavy strike drones on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. Colonelcassad shares video claiming an optical fiber FPV drone "VT-40" destroyed a storage site of 155mm M203A1 propelling charges, with a stated range of 30km. This, if verified, demonstrates effective RF counter-battery intelligence and drone-based targeting of UAF artillery logistics. Рыбарь (RF milblogger) reports a "breakthrough to New Shakhovo and Myrnograd," providing a map-based analysis of RF offensive operations in the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd agglomeration area, visually confirming advances between 24 AUG and 10 SEP 25. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" and TASS report new batches of BMP-3s with enhanced protection kits and BMD-2s (after overhaul and modernization) have been delivered to RF troops, indicating sustained military production and improved armored vehicle capabilities. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" shares video of army aviation operations in Kharkiv Oblast, Iziumskyi district, near Borovska Andriyivka, with supporting caption indicating it's in the direction of the 1st Tank Army's assault units, confirming concentrated air support for ground advances. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a video of military personnel deploying barricades and concertina wire on a wet asphalt road at night, captioning "Poland closed border with Belarus indefinitely", confirming RF awareness and commentary on NATO defensive measures. TASS reports Russian forces have "practically dislodged" UAF from Novomykolaivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This, if confirmed, signals further RF commitment to expanding their Dnipropetrovsk salient. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) provides tactical maps of the Novopavlovsk direction, indicating ongoing RF offensive operations or consolidation of territorial control in this sector. "Воин DV" provides video evidence of the "liberation" of Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by "Vostok" Grouping, with visuals of drone reconnaissance and artillery strikes, and claimed destruction of an M-777 howitzer. "Народная милиция ДНР" shares drone footage of the RF 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (ORB) destroying a UAF communications antenna/Starlink in a rural area, confirming continued RF counter-C2 efforts. "Z комитет + карта СВО" shares several tactical maps indicating advances in the Velykomykhailivka and Novoivanivka areas, further supporting RF claims of ongoing pressure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Novopavlivka. Liveuamap Source reports on daily clashes across a wide front, detailing settlements near Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, and Kherson where UAF repelled attacks. Colonelcassad reports FPV drone operators from "Sparta" battalion, 51st Guards Combined Arms Army, destroyed two UAF UAV control points and a communication antenna near Dimitrov, indicating active RF counter-UAV and counter-C2 operations. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shares photo of claimed liberation of Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by RF MOD, reinforcing Colonelcassad's claim. MoD Russia reports 215th Combined Arms Army's motorised rifle regiment (Zapad Group of Forces) conducting drills with AGS-17 Plamya at a training ground in the SVO zone, confirming continued combat training. "Два майора" (RF milblogger) and "Сливочный каприз" (RF milblogger) further support claims of RF capture of Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetropvsk Oblast, with map and video evidence, including drone reconnaissance, artillery strikes, and claimed M-777 howitzer destruction. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) reports "Работайте братья" showing "our little birds" (drones) invading Hryshyno, suggesting active RF drone operations in that area (likely Pokrovsk axis). "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares a thermal drone video depicting a Russian soldier attempting to hide from a UAF drone operator (79th Airmobile Brigade), indicating active UAF drone hunter-killer operations and highlighting RF vulnerability. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shares thermal imaging drone footage attributed to "Anvar" special forces, showing an attack on a convoy, supporting offensive operations on the Sumy axis. "Сливочный каприз" provides charts showing "Pace of offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces in the SMO zone," claiming daily advances, indicating RF's internal assessment of operational tempo and sustained offensive. Colonelcassad, "Два майора," and "Alex Parker Returns" all report on the detention of an individual in Dimitrovgrad for allegedly plotting to assassinate Vladimir Solovyev, framed as an an operation by Ukrainian special services, indicating RF counter-intelligence efforts and its immediate use for IO. MoD Russia reports on the progress of the special military operation from 6-12 September, claiming strikes on Ukrainian defense industry, transport, energy infrastructure, military airfields, and depots. "Сливочный каприз" shares drone footage of a settlement under artillery bombardment (Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk area), confirming continued ground pressure. "Воин DV" comments on Ukraine's delayed admission of territorial losses, indicating RF's view of UAF's information control. "Воин DV" shares drone footage of operators from the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, "Vostok" Grouping, actively engaging targets (vehicle, motorcycle, personnel) using FPV drones, indicating continued effective localized ground pressure and reconnaissance. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF milblogger) shares video of military vehicles (APCs/IFVs), attack helicopters, and a strategic bomber participating in "West-2025" exercises, confirming large-scale, multi-branch military drills are underway. "Два майора" share a video of three Russian soldiers expressing gratitude for donations (armored vehicle, batteries), confirming reliance on public support. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" makes a public appeal for donations for "desantniks" (airborne troops). Colonelcassad posts a video about a "Collection for the 4th auto column," showcasing the restoration and modification of a civilian vehicle (likely a Niva) with military-inspired paint and "Z" symbols, indicating ongoing volunteer efforts to supply vehicles for RF forces. "Воин DV" shares a video from the Zaporizhzhia direction featuring a soldier with the callsign "Kizovsky," showing the work of an evacuation group under fire, including destroyed military equipment and bodies of deceased soldiers, with a Turkish self-loading rifle (AKdal MKA-1919) identified in the footage. This highlights intense combat and ongoing efforts to retrieve casualties and equipment. "Старше Эдды" shares a video titled "Svoi. Douglas — Cortes: on the work of reactive artillery and loyalty to the Russian army," which likely features RF reactive artillery in action and promotes loyalty narratives. "Старше Эдды" also shares a video from Senior Lieutenant Ivan Kurbatov of the 90th Tank Division, from a tank in a combat zone, delivering a patriotic message to Moscow. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video depicting Ukrainian soldiers carrying a body on a stretcher through wooded and open terrain, implying ongoing casualty evacuation operations. "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares a video showing a UAF MiG-29 conducting an aerial attack, described as "master class on dismantling the invaders' battalion headquarters" in Zaporizhzhia (Confidence: MEDIUM). "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares a video depicting drone thermal imaging footage of a moving vehicle at night, with a crosshair reticle, suggesting active surveillance or targeting. (Confidence: HIGH) "Игорь Артамонов" shares video depicting civilian development projects, including school construction and kindergarten renovation, unrelated to military operations. (Confidence: HIGH) "Басурин о главном" shares video of a Russian Ministry of Defense meeting discussing economical management principles and digitalization, featuring Shoigu and Belousov, focused on internal efficiency. (Confidence: HIGH) "Два майора" shares video of mobile groups of marine special forces with FPV drones protecting the coast of Crimea from uncrewed surface vessels (BEC) and other threats at night, showing drone deployment and monitoring. (Confidence: HIGH) Colonelcassad shares video of Lada Niva vehicles being painted in matte green camouflage, indicating ongoing volunteer efforts to supply modified civilian vehicles for RF forces. (Confidence: HIGH). MoD Russia shares a video detailing servicemen of the 37th Separate Guards Motorised Rifle Brigade (Vostok Group of Forces) liberating Novopetrovskoye (Dnepropetrovsk region) during offensive operations. This confirms unit involvement in a key territorial gain (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad (18:17:02) shares graphic photo messages of alleged UAF serviceman remains in the border zone. While I cannot analyze the content directly, the presence of such imagery from an RF milblogger aims to fuel IO narratives of UAF losses and atrocities. ТАСС (18:23:46) shares a video of rescuers evacuating a third body from a cable car accident on Elbrus. This is a civilian incident, but RF milbloggers may use such events to show the resilience of Russian emergency services or to divert attention. Kadyrov_95 (18:26:17) shares a video of the opening of a newly renovated highway from Grozny. This civilian infrastructure project aims to project normalcy, economic development, and positive governance, serving as internal morale-boosting IO. Zelenskiy / Official (18:28:53) and КМВА (18:29:22) share videos of President Zelenskyy meeting with advisors from UK, Germany, France, and Italy to discuss support and security guarantees. This confirms high-level diplomatic efforts to secure continued Western aid. Два майора (18:33:00) shares video of thermal imaging from a drone, showing multiple explosions and artillery impacts in the Siverske direction. This indicates active RF artillery and drone operations in that area, likely targeting UAF positions or concentrations.

UPDATE: Оперативний ЗСУ (18:10:05) highlights an urgent need for a retranslator for the 72nd Brigade on the Kupiansk direction, indicating potential communication and C2 challenges for this UAF unit. The UAF General Staff (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS 18:17:55, Оперативний ЗСУ 18:30:14) is considering implementing mobile network shutdowns or internet slowdowns during air raid alerts, a significant control measure impacting friendly forces and civilian population alike. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (18:42:02) shares drone footage of a destroyed and burning vehicle, identifying it as a civilian vehicle struck by an RF "Molniya" kamikaze drone near Kramatorsk. This highlights the ongoing threat to civilian movement and confirms RF's disregard for non-combatants. DeepState (18:54:31) and Оперативний ЗСУ (19:01:50, 19:03:35) reveal RF forces utilizing gas pipes to cross the Oskil River and infiltrate Kupiansk, demonstrating an adaptive and covert infiltration tactic that UAF forces will need to counter. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (19:00:57) shares an interview with the former mayor of Kherson, Volodymyr Mykolaenko, discussing perceived failures in the initial defense of Kherson, which may be relevant for UAF internal reviews and accountability. TASS reports RF forces have taken control of Alekseevsky Island along with the Antonovsky railway bridge over the Dnipro. This indicates an RF advance in the Kherson direction, potentially securing key positions on the Dnipro River. (Confidence: MEDIUM) "Воин DV" shares archive footage of FPV drone operations on the South Donetsk direction, showing "Vostok" Grouping operators destroying engineering equipment and defensive positions. This reinforces RF's persistent use of FPV drones for tactical advantage. (Confidence: HIGH) RF milbloggers (Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z, Colonelcassad, «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат») are widely reporting that RF forces have penetrated Kupiansk via gas pipes ("Труба 3.0" tactic), describing a "whole underground artery" from Perviy Liman, used for moving assault groups on electric scooters and carts, with the journey taking 4 days. This suggests a highly adaptive and covert infiltration method, with a significant number of troops already dispersed in Kupiansk. (Confidence: HIGH) MoD Russia shares drone footage of military vehicles being targeted by FPV drones, including trucks and armored vehicles, with successful strikes visible. The video also shows a camouflaged armored vehicle under artillery strike. This confirms active RF FPV drone and artillery operations against UAF targets. (Confidence: HIGH) TASS reports that the USA has imposed restrictions against entities in several countries, accusing them of supplying various products to the Russian Federation. This indicates continued Western economic pressure on Russia. (Confidence: HIGH) Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video featuring a young Polish volunteer, Wojciech Antoni, serving in the 25th Airborne Brigade in Ukraine. This highlights the presence of foreign fighters and cross-border solidarity against RF aggression. (Confidence: HIGH) TASS reports that the majority of UN countries did not sign a statement on RF's involvement in the UAV incident in Poland. This is an RF IO attempt to counter accusations and sow doubt about its responsibility. (Confidence: HIGH) TASS shares a photo message stating that the Central Election Commission (CEC) will analyze electoral legislation and prepare proposals for its improvement after the unified voting day. This is a domestic RF IO message aimed at projecting democratic process and good governance. (Confidence: HIGH) TASS reports that Russian forces have advanced near Kupiansk and taken two railway stations under fire control, according to Марочко. (Confidence: HIGH) TASS reports US authorities believe Kirk's killer acted alone. (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts photo messages and text regarding Poland's reaction to alleged Russian UAV incursions, highlighting the "Why us?" sentiment and perceived NATO preparations. (Confidence: HIGH). Операция Z (RusVesna) reports the majority of UN countries did not support Poland's accusations against Russia regarding UAV incursions. (Confidence: HIGH). TASS reports the USA stated to other G7 countries that they should impose duties against buyers of Russian oil. (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad posts video of drone footage from what appears to be a military operation near Hryshyno, depicting a motorcycle group, thermal imaging of a vehicle and skull icon, and later identifying a pickup truck and an artillery piece. The video seems to document reconnaissance and possible targeting activities. (Confidence: HIGH) TASS reports RF forces have taken control of forests southwest of Vovchansk. This indicates continued RF pressure and localized territorial gains in the Kharkiv direction. (Confidence: HIGH) TASS reports RF forces are advancing on Siversk in the DPR from three sides, intensifying pressure on UAF. (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad (00:28:01) posts photo messages with the caption "Убийство Кирка по новостным заголовкам" (Kirk's Murder by News Headlines). This indicates RF milbloggers are leveraging the Kirk assassination for IO, likely to sow distrust in Western narratives or exploit internal US political events. UPDATE: TASS reports that residents of Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Kyiv-controlled parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts are being mobilized into the UAF more frequently than others. This suggests targeted mobilization efforts by UAF in these regions, which RF will use for IO. (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad (01:03:01) reports TCC officers beat a man in Dnipro, sharing video. (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: TASS (03:28:24Z) reports that the military commandant of a railway station, Mikhail Demidov, prevented the destruction of an RF ammunition train. This suggests an active UAF interdiction attempt against a critical RF logistical asset. (Confidence: HIGH)

• 03:37:53Z, ТАСС: RF Armed Forces, during a night assault, occupied UAF positions in a forest belt in the South Donetsk direction. Reported by a senior rifleman of the "Vostok" assault group with callsign Mamai. (Confidence: HIGH)
• 03:47:01Z, ТАСС: A UAF group is surrounded in a forest area near Ambarnoye in Kharkiv Oblast. This was reported to TASS by Russian security forces. (Confidence: HIGH)
• 04:02:26Z, ТАСС: Bastion complexes from Franz Josef Land struck conditional enemy targets with Oniks missiles as part of "West-2025" exercises. (Confidence: HIGH)
• 04:10:16Z, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦: A 38-year-old woman sustained injuries due to enemy shelling in Zaporizhzhia Raion. (Confidence: HIGH)
• 04:15:33Z, РБК-Україна: A military drone was washed ashore on a beach in Bulgaria. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
• 04:30:05Z, 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА): Aggressor targeted Nikopol Raion with FPV drones and artillery, attacking the district center and Marhanets community. Photo message shows damage consistent with shelling. (Confidence: HIGH)

1.4. Intelligence Gaps (Confidence: HIGH)

• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the UAF drone strikes on the oil depot in Smolensk Oblast and Primorsk port in Leningrad Oblast? What specific types of facilities were hit (e.g., storage tanks, pumping stations, vessels), what is the estimated damage, and what is the operational impact on RF military/energy logistics? (Previous Critical for Smolensk, New for Primorsk Oil Depot) ASTRA reports no damage or casualties in Smolensk according to Governor Anokhin. This directly contradicts previous UAF claims and requires immediate verification. RBC-Ukraine reports oil shipments suspended from Primorsk, requiring verification of this specific impact. TASS claims a UAF drone attacked the Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant, hitting ancillary facilities. What is the verifiable BDA of this new strike? RF milblogger reporting also indicates the attack on Smolensk NPP. Росатом's claim of minor damage (fence, admin building) and no impact on critical infrastructure requires independent verification, as does the previous claim of ancillary facilities hit. This is a crucial intelligence gap regarding the true impact and potential for escalation. ASTRA's report of two berths and an oil tanker damaged at Primorsk provides specific BDA, but confirmation of the extent of damage and its operational/economic impact remains critical. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares new satellite imagery confirming damage to at least two tanks at Transneft's Vtorovo oil pumping station in Vladimir Oblast. This BDA from a UAF-aligned source needs independent verification, but increases confidence in the strike's success and impact. The new videos from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (18:07:31) show a large industrial facility on fire. It is CRITICAL to determine if this footage is additional BDA from previously reported deep strikes (Smolensk, Primorsk, Vtorovo) or if it represents a new, as yet unreported, successful UAF deep strike. The specific location and nature of the industrial facility are critical to assess its operational impact.
• CRITICAL: What is the specific composition, strength, and immediate objectives of the RF 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment operating in the Sumy direction, particularly near Yunakovka? What is the current UAF force posture and defensive readiness in this sector? What specific village in Sumy Oblast was hit by the latest RF strike causing fatalities and destruction, and what is the confirmed BDA? ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS specifies Bytytsia as the village, requiring verification of BDA and confirmation of casualties. Colonelcassad's claim of a destroyed UAF PVD and three vehicles in Sumy Oblast requires BDA verification and identification of the specific UAF unit affected. Zelenskyy's statement of the Russian offensive on Sumy being completely thwarted (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ) requires detailed ground truth verification to assess the extent of the RF setback and UAF success.
• CRITICAL: What is the specific BDA of the alleged "liberation" of Sosnovka and Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by the RF "Vostok" Grouping/Russian Army? What UAF units were defending it, and what is the current UAF posture in Velykomykhailivka, which RF claims to be encircling? What is the verifiable BDA for the RF claim of "practically dislodging" UAF from Novomykolaivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast? What UAF units were involved, and what are the immediate RF intentions for exploitation? What are the precise details and verified advances depicted in the "Z комитет + карта СВО" maps for Velykomykhailivka and Novoivanivka? What are the specific changes reflected in the DeepState map update? What is the verifiable BDA and tactical significance of the "Shkval" battalion's successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts? What RF units were impacted, and what is the current UAF disposition in the area? ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a DeepState map update showing enemy advances to Sosnivka, Berezove, and Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This requires independent verification and detailed analysis of UAF force disposition in these newly threatened areas. MoD Russia's video confirming the 37th Separate Guards Motorised Rifle Brigade liberated Novopetrovskoye provides unit identification, but detailed BDA and UAF disposition remain critical gaps.
• CRITICAL: What is the specific BDA of the alleged RF strikes on the Lviv Armored Plant, Lviv Aviation Plant, and other DIB facilities in western Ukraine?
• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA and specific details of the alleged defection of a Russian soldier to the UAF after killing two officers and destroying his position, as reported by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС? What unit was he from, and what actionable intelligence has he provided?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific impact and BDA of the new RF mechanized offensive on the Kostiantynivka direction, as reported by STERNENKO? What RF units are involved, and what UAF forces are counter-attacking? What specific details are available regarding the RF breakthrough near Predtechino and Pleshcheyevka?
• CRITICAL: What is the verifiable BDA and source for the claim of 80% destruction of UAF assault groups near Andriyivka, Sumy Oblast (TASS)? What UAF units were involved, and what is the overall impact on UAF offensive capabilities in the Sumy region?
• CRITICAL: What is the current status of RF "motorcycle assaults"? Are these isolated incidents or a new, broader tactical adaptation? What are the specific vulnerabilities of these tactics to UAF counter-engagement?
• CRITICAL: What is the confirmed BDA of the alleged RF "practical dislodgement" of UAF from Kirovsk on the Krasny Liman direction? What UAF units were involved, and what are the immediate RF intentions for further exploitation? What is the verifiable BDA of the current RF "clearing" operations around Krasny Liman near Torske and Kirovsk? What specific gains are being made and what UAF units are impacted?
• CRITICAL: What is the confirmed BDA of the RF claim regarding the destruction of a storage site for 155mm M203A1 propelling charges by a "VT-40" fiber-optic FPV drone? What UAF unit was affected, and what is the operational impact on UAF artillery sustainment?
• CRITICAL: What is the verifiable BDA and source for the claim by "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" that UAF has "cleared and liberated" the villages of Shakhove and Volodymyrivka on the Dobropillya direction? What RF units were defending these villages, and what are the immediate UAF intentions for further exploitation or consolidation? ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirming Ukrainian forces pushed back the enemy near Volodymyrivka and Shakhove (17:42:00) requires verification for the term "liberated" and the full tactical context.
• CRITICAL: What is the specific details of the SBU operation regarding the UOC-MP priest accused of adjusting RF strikes in Sumy Oblast? What intelligence was gathered, and how does this impact RF intelligence gathering networks?
• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA and context of the graphic video of multiple deceased and dismembered individuals shared by "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС"? What was the cause of casualties, and in what specific location did this occur? The new message from Colonelcassad (18:17:02) sharing graphic photos of alleged UAF serviceman remains in the border zone. It is CRITICAL to verify the authenticity of this imagery, the location, and whether it corresponds to any known UAF engagements or RF cross-border operations. This is essential for counter-IO and casualty assessment.
• CRITICAL: What is the full scope and specific objectives of the "West-2025" exercises? What RF and Belarusian units are participating, what new capabilities are being tested, and what are the implications for potential future offensive operations against Ukraine or NATO? (Previously Critical, Reconfirmed) What is the specific composition of forces (unit breakdown, equipment numbers) involved in the "West-2025" exercises as depicted in the Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video? What specific tactical scenarios are being rehearsed?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific RF air defense system or air-to-air asset was responsible for the downing of the UAF Su-27 in the Zaporizhzhia direction, and what is the operational impact on UAF air superiority in this sector? (Previously Critical, Reconfirmed) MoD Russia claims it was destroyed in aerial combat by Russian Aerospace Forces, this needs independent verification. Colonelcassad reports finding the wreckage of the Su-27 near Dobropillya, which requires immediate UAF verification and BDA to confirm the loss. "Военкор Котенок" shares a photo of the wreckage of a Ukrainian Su-27, claimed to be shot down yesterday in Zaporizhzhia. Independent BDA and verification of this specific loss (location, date, cause) are critically needed to confirm the impact on UAF air superiority.
• CRITICAL: What is the verifiable BDA and operational impact of the alleged UAV strike on the Transneft oil pumping station "Vtorovo" in Vladimir Oblast, Russia? What specific assets were targeted, and what is the estimated repair time and economic impact? КіберБорошно's analysis provides specific BDA (technological overpass, pipelines, cables), but independent verification and assessment of repair time/economic impact are still critical. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares satellite imagery claiming damage to at least two tanks at Transneft's Vtorovo station. This requires immediate independent verification.
• CRITICAL: What is the verifiable BDA of the RF 68th ORB's claimed destruction of a UAF communications antenna/Starlink? What unit was affected and what is the impact on UAF C2?
• CRITICAL: What is the verifiable status of the claimed UAF relocation of military aircraft to airfields in Poland and Romania? What types and numbers of aircraft are involved, and what are the implications for UAF air operations and NATO-Ukraine cooperation?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific impact and BDA of the RF "Sparta" battalion's claimed destruction of two UAF UAV control points and a communication antenna near Dimitrov? What UAF units and C2 were affected?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific details of the RF Southern Grouping of Forces destroying three UAF UAV control posts and a Starlink antenna on the Siversk direction? What units were affected, and what is the impact on UAF C2?
• CRITICAL: What is the full scope and capabilities of the newly introduced Croatian M-84 tanks to the UAF 141st Mechanized Brigade? What is their deployment location and immediate impact on UAF armored capabilities?
• CRITICAL: What is the verifiable BDA and tactical context of RF drone operations against Hryshyno, as reported by "Операция Z"? What specific UAF assets or personnel were targeted?
• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA and tactical significance of the RF Pacific Fleet exercises, specifically the involvement of nuclear submarines and Bastion coastal missile systems? How does this impact RF's overall strategic posture and potential for power projection?
• CRITICAL: What is the verifiable BDA and full context of the thermal imaging footage shared by "Операция Z" of "Anvar" special forces attacking a convoy on the Sumy axis? What type of vehicles were targeted, and what was the impact?
• CRITICAL: What is the verifiable BDA and specific location of the UAF sniper operation reported by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС on the Toretsk front, Donetsk Oblast, resulting in six RF assault troops eliminated?
• CRITICAL: What is the full scope and intent of the "Day without booze" initiative by "Оперативний ЗСУ"? Is it a UAF-wide campaign, and what is its specific intent beyond general health?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific details of the new state holiday announced by Zelenskyy, and how does it relate to military or national morale?
• CRITICAL: What are the full details and the financial impact of the fraud investigation into the Ukrainian MP reported by the Office of the Prosecutor General? How does this impact public trust in UAF government and aid efforts?
• CRITICAL: What are the specifics of the combat scenarios (wooded, open fields, destroyed vehicles) depicted in the new "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video? What RF units are involved, and what is the operational context? What are the specific targets and BDA of the RF FPV drone operations by the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, "Vostok" Grouping, as shown in the "Воин DV" video? What types of vehicles/personal were engaged?
• CRITICAL: What is the operational impact and specific targets of the artillery bombardment depicted in "Сливочный каприз" video of the Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk area?
• CRITICAL: What is the true nature and impact of the shootout with two fatalities in an auto service office in Lviv Oblast? Was it an isolated criminal act, or does it indicate broader internal security concerns with potential links to the conflict?
• CRITICAL: What is the verifiable BDA and context of the SSO snipers' close-quarters combat during an assault on enemy trench positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction by SSO snipers, involving grenades and small arms fire in close-quarters combat, highlighting active UAF ground engagements. What enemy units were encountered?
• CRITICAL: What are the specific tactical applications and vulnerabilities of RF's FPV "Zhduny" drones, as highlighted by Оперативний ЗСУ? How are UAF forces adapting to counter this tactic?
• CRITICAL: What is the verifiable BDA of the RF reactive artillery engagement shown in "Старше Эдды"'s video? What UAF targets were engaged, and what was the impact?
• CRITICAL: What is the current status and capabilities of the VAZ-2121 (Niva) or similar Soviet-era vehicles being restored and customized with military markings for RF forces, as shown in Colonelcassad's "4th auto column" video? What is their intended role and impact on RF ground mobility?
• CRITICAL: What are the current and future resource requirements for RF airborne troops, as implied by "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺"'s donation appeal? What does this indicate about their sustainment status?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific impact of the scheme for fictitious employment in 'fake' educational institutions to evade mobilization in Kyiv, as reported by Офіс Генерального прокурора? How widespread is this issue, and what is its impact on UAF mobilization efforts?
• CRITICAL: What are the specific targets and BDA of the Russian border guard operations against UAF equipment, infantry, and positions on the Bryansk-Chernihiv direction, as reported by "Операция Z"?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific operational context and BDA of the UAF '3rd Army Corps' operations as shown in the БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video, particularly regarding the captured individuals? What intelligence can be derived from these interactions?
• CRITICAL: What is the verifiable BDA and tactical significance of the 88th Assault Brigade's claimed capture of an enemy stronghold near Fedorovka on the Siverske direction? What UAF units were involved, and what are the immediate RF intentions for exploitation?
• CRITICAL: What are the specific capabilities, deployment status, and tactical implications of the newly showcased Russian "Kurier" (Courier) unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) and 'Fagot' remote-controlled robotic platforms? What are UAF's immediate countermeasures for these systems?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific military intelligence value of the image of a soldier holding a crocheted panda toy ("Оберег артиллериста. Окопная проза «Адлера»")? Is this specific to a unit, or a broader cultural phenomenon?
• CRITICAL: What is the full context and military significance of the video featuring Senior Lieutenant Ivan Kurbatov of the 90th Tank Division delivering a patriotic message from a tank? What specific combat operations is he referencing?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific implications for the "Neutron Source" facility in Kharkiv regarding the risk of a nuclear accident due to RF strikes, as reported by RBC-Україна? What is the current status of the facility and its defenses?
• CRITICAL: What is the verifiable BDA and context of the claimed UAF capture of a hexacopter "Baba Yaga" by RF forces and its subsequent use against UAF, as reported by Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition? What RF unit is operating it, and what are the tactical implications?
• CRITICAL: What is the verifiable BDA and context of the 78th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Sever-Akhmat" conducting artillery strikes? What are their specific targets and what is the impact on UAF forces?
• CRITICAL: What is the verifiable BDA of the Russian FPV drones appearing in central Kramatorsk? What specific targets are they engaging, and what is the immediate threat to UAF forces or civilian infrastructure?
• CRITICAL: What is the full scope and tactical impact of the RF State Duma considering a bill for year-round conscription? What are the projected numbers, timeline, and impact on RF's long-term troop strength and mobilization efforts?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific details of the closure of airspace by Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania? What is the duration, extent (military vs. civilian), and specific trigger for this action, and what are the diplomatic implications with Russia? (STERNENKO message)
• CRITICAL: What is the verifiable BDA of the UAF MiG-29 aerial attack in Zaporizhzhia, specifically targeting the "invaders' battalion headquarters"? What specific RF unit was targeted, what was the impact on personnel and equipment, and what UAF unit executed the strike? (Оперативний ЗСУ video)
• CRITICAL: What is the verifiable BDA and operational impact of the 100th Separate Mechanized Brigade's strikes on an RF tank, armored fighting vehicle (BBBM), and personnel? What specific RF units were targeted, and what were the locations of these engagements? (STERNENKO video 16:41:23)
• CRITICAL: What is the tactical significance of the drone footage from "Воин DV" (16:36:59)? Are the camouflaged vehicles and ATVs specifically identified RF assets, and what is the current threat level posed by such movements?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific context and BDA of the "enemy heavy hexacopter" whose control channels were reportedly overwhelmed by RF "Vostok" Group's UAV operators in Dnepropetrovsk region (MoD Russia 16:37:49)? What UAF unit was operating it, and what was its mission? Басурин о главном shares a video of Ukrainian military personnel handling a hexacopter drone in Dnepropetrovsk region, with a Russian overlay stating "Retrained hexacopter of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," implying RF forces either captured or repurposed the drone, or are conducting counter-UAV operations. This provides additional context but the ultimate BDA and UAF unit remain critical gaps.
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the full BDA and operational impact of RF gaining control of Alekseevsky Island and the Antonovsky railway bridge over the Dnipro in the Kherson direction? What UAF units were defending, and what are the implications for riverine and ground operations in the region?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What are the specific capabilities, deployment status, and tactical implications of the alleged "underground artery" and infiltration tactics ("Труба 3.0") used by RF forces to penetrate Kupiansk via gas pipes? What UAF units are currently engaged with these infiltrated forces, and what immediate countermeasures are being implemented?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA of the RF strike on a communal brigade in Kramatorsk, as reported by Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (19:30:27)? What type of munition was used, and what is the extent of casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA and full context of the alleged RF "Molniya" UAV strike killing civilians near Kramatorsk, as reported by Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (19:32:52)? What type of UAV was used, what was the specific target, and what measures are being taken to document this alleged war crime?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the precise tactical context, specific location, and confirmed unit affiliation of the soldier in the trench in the Kupiansk wooded area footage shared by Kotsnews and Рыбарь? Is this an RF or UAF position? What are the immediate threats and opportunities this observation presents?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA and operational impact of RF gaining fire control over two railway stations near Kupiansk, as reported by TASS (22:01:17)? What is the specific location of these stations, and how does this affect UAF logistics and troop movement in the Kupiansk sector?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the full BDA, RF unit involvement, and UAF losses (personnel, equipment) from the RF drone operations targeting Hryshyno, as depicted by Colonelcassad (23:03:01, 23:03:02)? Specifically, were the identified motorcycle group, pickup, and artillery piece successfully engaged and destroyed?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the full BDA and specific RF units involved in taking control of the forests southwest of Vovchansk? What UAF units were defending, and what are the implications for the Vovchansk front? (TASS 23:15:11)
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the specific BDA and impact of the reported advance by RF forces on Siversk in the DPR from three sides? What UAF units are currently defending, and what is their force posture and readiness against multi-directional pressure? (TASS 00:02:44)
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable context and specific details of the civilian testimony from Aleksandr Aleksandrovich Gudkov regarding robbery and violence by Russian soldiers in Sudzha, Kursk Oblast, as shared by Colonelcassad (00:03:02)? What RF units were involved, and what is the implication for RF troop discipline and adherence to international humanitarian law in border regions?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the full context and specific details of the news headlines about Kirk's murder shared by Colonelcassad (00:28:01)? What specific aspects of the coverage are being amplified, and what is the intended IO effect?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the specific BDA and impact of the reported initial battles for Zvanovka near Siversk in the DPR? What RF and UAF units are currently engaged? (TASS 01:01:11).
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the full verifiable context and BDA of the reported beating of a man by TCC officers in Dnipro? What specific UAF units or TCC personnel were involved, what was the reason for the alleged beating, and what are the implications for UAF public trust and mobilization efforts? (Colonelcassad 01:03:01).
• CRITICAL (NEW): What are the specific capabilities, deployment patterns, and immediate objectives of the RF 70th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment in the Orikhiv direction, as reported by TASS (02:03:37)? What is the verifiable status of UAF's "deep defense" in this area, and what specific RF "offensive gains" or "destruction of sabotage/reconnaissance groups" are being claimed?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the military intelligence value of the successful launch of "Soyuz-2.1b" from Plesetsk Cosmodrome in the interests of the RF Ministry of Defense? What is its payload, and does it represent a new ISR, communication, or military satellite capability? (TASS 02:30:16Z)
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA for the RF claim of destroying a UAF grouping in northern Konstantinovka? What UAF units were involved, and what is the impact on the overall UAF defensive posture in the Konstantinovka direction? (TASS 03:22:02Z).
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the full context and BDA of the UAF attempt to destroy an RF ammunition train at a railway station, and what RF units or logistical operations were targeted? (TASS 03:28:24Z).
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA and operational impact of the RF claim of occupying UAF positions in a forest belt in the South Donetsk direction during a night assault? What specific UAF units were displaced, and what RF units (Vostok assault group) were involved? (TASS 03:37:53Z, 03:37:54Z).
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable status and precise location of the UAF group allegedly surrounded in a forest area near Ambarnoye in Kharkiv Oblast? What RF forces are involved in this encirclement, and what are the immediate threats to the UAF group? (TASS 03:47:01Z).
• CRITICAL (NEW): What are the military and strategic implications of the "West-2025" exercises featuring Bastion complexes launching Oniks missiles from Franz Josef Land in an Arctic environment? What is the range and target of these missiles, and how does this impact RF's Arctic defense and power projection capabilities? (TASS 04:02:26Z, 04:02:27Z).
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the full BDA, current status of the injured woman, and specific RF unit responsible for the shelling in Zaporizhzhia Raion? (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 04:10:16Z).
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the specific type, origin, and capabilities of the military drone washed ashore in Bulgaria? What was its mission profile, and does this indicate a new area of operation for either side? (РБК-Україна 04:15:33Z).
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the specific BDA, casualties, and impact on local infrastructure of the FPV drone and artillery attacks in Nikopol Raion and Marhanets community, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast? What specific RF units were involved in these attacks? (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) 04:30:05Z).
• HIGH: What is the exact damage assessment and long-term operational impact of the HUR strike on the RF Black Sea Fleet Project MPSV07 vessel near Novorossiysk? How long will repairs take, and how does this affect RF maritime operations in the Black Sea?
• HIGH: What is the specific military significance of the restrictions imposed at the airports of Volgograd and Yaroslavl? Are these linked to UAF deep strikes or internal RF security incidents, and what assets/operations are affected? (TASS 02:16:08Z). This follows previous restrictions and needs to be continually assessed.
• HIGH: What is the specific target and BDA of the allegedly destroyed ammunition depot in occupied Luhansk, and what UAF assets were responsible for this strike?
• HIGH: What is the exact status and operational implications of RF control over Kolodyazi on the Krasny Liman direction? What UAF units were defending, and what are the immediate RF intentions following this alleged capture?
• HIGH: What is the specific military significance of the traffic jam reported towards Khartsyzk, including the presence of military-style trucks? Does this indicate a RF logistical movement, increased security, or a response to an incident?
• HIGH: What is the confirmed success rate and methodology of RF snipers against UAF "Baba Yaga" drones? What counter-measures are effective against this new RF tactical adaptation?
• HIGH: What is the full impact and the intent behind RF FSB detaining a Russian citizen in Klimovsk for allegedly financing UAF and planning to join combat? Is this an isolated incident or part of a broader internal security crackdown?
• HIGH: What is the specific impact of the observed geomagetic disturbances on military C2, ISR, or navigation systems for both UAF and RF forces?
• HIGH: What is the verifiable BDA and context of the RF FAB guided aerial bomb strikes on UAF positions in Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast?
• HIGH: What specific capabilities are being tested in RF's "heavy drone evading EW"? What is its current stage of development and potential deployment timeline?
• HIGH: What is the specific impact of the internal RF investigation and charges against the ex-commander of a military unit in Lviv Oblast regarding million-dollar damages during army bed procurement? How does this impact UAF procurement and anti-corruption efforts?
• HIGH: What is the effectiveness of UAF's 79th Airmobile Brigade's drone hunter-killer operations against camouflaged RF soldiers, as depicted in the БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video? What counter-measures are RF soldiers employing?
• HIGH: What is the verifiable BDA of the RF drone exhibition ("Дронница")? What new technologies were showcased, and what are their potential military implications?
• HIGH: What is the specific implications for RF naval operations in the Arctic Ocean from the Northern Fleet deployments during "West-2025"?
• HIGH: What is the full context and impact of the "Воин DV" comment on Ukraine's delayed admission of territorial losses?
• HIGH: What is the full BDA and contextual information for the image of three Russian soldiers in "Два майора"'s video, given their expressions of gratitude for donations? What specific armored vehicle was donated, and what is its operational status?
• HIGH: What is the military significance of AV БогомаZ's photo message? Is it related to combat operations or purely internal messaging?
• HIGH: What are the specific military intelligence value of the multiple photo messages of EW personnel shared by "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)"? Are there any identifiable equipment or unit markings?
• HIGH: What is the specific military intelligence value of the "СТИКЕРПАК «АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА»" photo messages? Are these for morale, recruitment, or commercial purposes?
• HIGH: What is the tactical significance of the "Кокаиновый мост" (Cocaine Bridge) map shared by Рыбарь? Does it imply RF counter-narcotics operations or an IO narrative related to UAF/Western illicit activities?
• HIGH: What is the full impact and the intent behind the "First ban on leaving the country due to the electronic register of subpoenas" reported by МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники? Does this indicate a new phase of RF mobilization or stricter enforcement?
• HIGH: What is the current status of Dmitry Bykov's case, accused of spreading false information about RF shelling of Kharkiv? What evidence is being presented by TASS?
• HIGH: What is the specific context and impact of "РБК-Україна" reporting on the departure abroad of young Ukrainian men (18-22) and its effect on business? Does this indicate a new mobilization trend or social concern?
• HIGH: What is the full context and impact of the internal RF IO concern raised by "Два майора" regarding "United Russia" candidates and diaspora leaders in regional elections? Does this indicate internal political friction relevant to the war effort?
• HIGH: What is the full significance of the memorial plaque for fallen defender Oleksandr Dokukin in Zaporizhzhia? What unit was he from, and does this indicate a recent casualty or a commemorative act?
• HIGH: What are the specific items seized in the "scheme of fictitious employment in 'fake' educational institutions to evade mobilization" in Kyiv, as reported by Офіс Генерального прокурора? Do they reveal any organizational structure or patterns?
• HIGH: What is the status of the 38 US M1A2 Abrams tanks reported to have arrived in Poland? Are they fully operational, and what are their intended deployment and role?
• HIGH: What is the specific military intelligence value of the civilian development projects (school, medical post, sports complex, greenhouse) in Zhurinichi, Bryansk Oblast, shared by AV БогомаZ? Are these located in close proximity to military installations or border areas?
• HIGH: What is the current status of the damaged house in Makeyevka, DPR, that was declared unsafe? Was the damage recent due to conflict, or an older issue that has only now been officially recognized?
• HIGH: What is the military significance of the RF MoD's summary of the SVO from 6-12 SEP, particularly regarding any new claims or changes in assessment of UAF capabilities and intentions? (Colonelcassad message)
• HIGH: What is the full military significance and BDA of the drone thermal imaging footage shared by "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" (17:01:38) showing a moving vehicle at night with a crosshair reticle? What type of vehicle was it, and was it targeted?
• HIGH: What is the military intelligence value of the civilian development projects detailed by "Игорь Артамонов" (16:54:04)? Are these projects indicative of a broader RF strategy to integrate occupied territories or specific border regions?
• HIGH: What is the full scope and tactical implications of the discussion by Shoigu and Belousov on economical management and digitalization within the RF MoD (Басурин о главном 16:53:41)? How will these changes impact RF's sustained war effort?
• HIGH: What are the precise details and implications of the NATO general's statement that "Operation Eastern Guardian" does not include integration with Ukrainian air defense (РБК-Україна 16:58:10)? Does this represent a shift in NATO policy or a clarification, and how does it affect UAF's long-term air defense strategy?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the current disposition and immediate objective of the RF UAVs detected over Chernihiv Oblast moving towards Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorod district)? What UAF air defense assets are engaged? (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine message)
• HIGH (NEW): What is the specific context and operational implications of RF arbitral court introducing bankruptcy proceedings against Russian assets of Volkswagen AG? Does this indicate broader state seizure of foreign assets, and what is the potential impact on RF's industrial and economic capacity to sustain the war? (ТАСС message)
• HIGH (NEW): What is the precise nature and duration of the "Резерв+" app functional limitations? Is this a technical issue, a security measure, or an update related to mobilization? What is the impact on UAF mobilization efforts and public perception? (РБК-Україна message)
• HIGH (NEW): What is the full operational and intelligence value of the "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" weekly summary video? Are there any identifiable military units mentioned or specific tactical developments beyond the humanitarian aid and infrastructure efforts? (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 message 16:24:29)
• HIGH (NEW): What is the specific military intelligence value of the drone footage from "Воин DV" (16:36:59)? Are the camouflaged vehicles and ATVs specifically identified RF assets, and what is the current threat level posed by such movements?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the specific context and BDA of the "enemy heavy hexacopter" whose control channels were reportedly overwhelmed by RF "Vostok" Group's UAV operators in Dnepropetrovsk region (MoD Russia 16:37:49)? What UAF unit was operating it, and what was its mission?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the specific military intelligence value of the drone thermal imaging footage shared by "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" (17:01:38) showing a moving vehicle at night with a crosshair reticle, suggesting active surveillance or targeting. (Confidence: HIGH)
• HIGH (NEW): What are the specific capabilities, deployment patterns, and operational impact of the strike UAVs detected in southern Kharkiv Oblast moving west/south? What UAF air defense assets are being tasked to intercept them? (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine message 17:17:31)
• HIGH (NEW): What is the full context and BDA of the UAF UAV detected and suppressed over Bryansk Oblast by RF MOD air defense units, as reported by AV БогомаZ (17:13:04)? What type of UAV was it, what was its intended target, and what is the impact on UAF deep strike capabilities?
• HIGH (NEW): What are the specific operational implications of the expanded military cooperation between Poland and Ukraine, specifically regarding the 47 billion Euro SAFE European instrument for joint defense projects, as reported by Оперативний ЗСУ (17:31:54)? What specific projects are envisioned, and what is the timeline for implementation?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the military intelligence value of the multiple photo messages by Oleg Sinegubov (Харківської ОДА) celebrating athletes and coaches on Physical Culture and Sports Day (17:17:46)? Is this a morale-boosting effort for military personnel or a broader civilian IO?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the full BDA and specific outcomes of the UAF drone engagement with Russian soldiers in trench positions in the video shared by Підрозділ Shadow (17:48:09)? What RF unit was affected, and what was the extent of personnel/equipment losses?
• HIGH (NEW): What are the specific regions and targets identified in Colonelcassad's animated scheme of strikes on Ukraine (17:50:01), and what is the specific BDA for these strikes between September 11-12, 2025? Does this confirm or contradict other strike reports?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the specific evidence for the claim by Басурин о главном (17:45:09) that RF operators in Dnepropetrovsk region "retrained" a UAF hexacopter, and what are the tactical implications if RF can regularly repurpose captured UAF drones?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the military intelligence value of the US imposing restrictions against entities in several countries accused of supplying various products to the Russian Federation, as reported by TASS (21:24:01)? What specific products or entities are targeted, and what is the anticipated impact on RF's access to critical supplies for its war effort?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the full context and specific intent of the UAF video featuring a young Polish volunteer, Wojciech Antoni, serving in the 25th Airborne Brigade in Ukraine, as shared by Оперативний ЗСУ (21:29:41)? Is this part of a broader recruitment campaign for foreign fighters, or primarily an IO effort to highlight international solidarity?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the military intelligence value of the РБК-Україна photo message about Trump and Putin meeting in Malaysia in October? Is there any indication of US or RF intent to use this for diplomatic breakthroughs or is it primarily an IO event? (РБК-Україна message 21:46:01)
• HIGH (NEW): What is the military intelligence value of the TASS report about the confiscation of 68 million rubles from an ex-investigator in Russia? Does this indicate broader anti-corruption efforts within RF or a specific political purging? (TASS message 21:47:01)
• HIGH (NEW): What is the military intelligence value of the Операция Z (RusVesna) video claiming Trump has started a powerful persecution of George Soros? Is this a concerted RF IO effort to leverage US internal politics for anti-Western propaganda? (Операция Z message 21:56:09)
• HIGH (NEW): What are the full implications of Ahmed ash-Shaara's (Syria) statement about maintaining ties with Russia, as reported by TASS (21:57:01) and Colonelcassad (22:01:29)? Does this signal renewed or strengthened military cooperation with Syria, and how might this affect RF's deployment options or regional influence?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the precise nature of the document images posted by Colonelcassad (22:18:01-22:18:02)? While the content isn't directly analyzable, the sheer volume of images suggests a potential leak or a deliberate information dump aimed at a specific narrative. (Confidence: HIGH)
• HIGH (NEW): What is the impact on France's ability to provide military or financial aid to Ukraine following Fitch's downgrade due to national debt and political crisis, as reported by TASS (22:59:42)? (Confidence: MEDIUM)
• HIGH (NEW): What is the full military significance of RF's strategic focus on the Arctic, including the role of autonomous stations like 'Snezhnika' and resource development? What are the dual-use military intelligence applications of the scientific research being conducted? (Операция Z 23:40:04).
• HIGH (NEW): What is the verifiable context and BDA of Donald Trump's renewed promise to "deal with Soros," as reported by TASS (23:43:59)? How will this be leveraged by RF IO to impact US domestic politics and international perceptions?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the specific context and military significance of the РБК-Україна (00:15:16) report that almost 50 UN member states condemned RF drone attack on Poland? What specific UN forum or resolution is being referred to, and what are the implications for Russia's diplomatic isolation?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the military intelligence value of the TASS report that residents of Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Kyiv-controlled parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts are being mobilized into the UAF more frequently than others? What are the specific numbers or percentages, and what does this indicate about UAF's overall mobilization strategy and manpower challenges? (TASS 00:46:01).
• HIGH (NEW): What is the military intelligence value of Colonelcassad's video messages about Chinese Air Force combat training (02:03:01Z, 02:03:02Z)? Does this signal potential Chinese military aid to Russia, or is it merely observation of general military developments?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the military intelligence value of the residential building damage from UAV debris in Volgograd Oblast? What type of UAV caused the damage, and was it a UAF deep strike or an RF air defense malfunction? (TASS 03:58:32Z).
• HIGH (NEW): What is the specific Russian Ministry of Defense unit or command responsible for the claim of 42 Ukrainian UAVs shot down overnight? (ТАСС 04:09:14Z).
• MEDIUM (NEW): What are the implications of the anticipated frosts (-2°C) in some areas of Moscow region for RF military logistics and personnel? (Новости Москвы message)
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the intelligence value of Pavel Durov's statement on Charlie Kirk's death, as amplified by ASTRA? Is there any specific element that could be leveraged for IO or counter-IO? (ASTRA message)
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the military intelligence value of the civilian development projects detailed by "Игорь Артамонов" (16:54:04)? Are these projects indicative of a broader RF strategy to integrate occupied territories or specific border regions?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the full scope and tactical implications of the discussion by Shoigu and Belousov on economical management principles and digitalization within the RF MoD (Басурин о главном 16:53:41)? How will these changes impact RF's sustained war effort?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What are the specific capabilities and deployment status of RF mobile groups of marine special forces with FPV drones for coastal defense in Crimea, as shown in the "Два майора" video (16:59:03)? What is their primary mission and effectiveness against USV threats?
• MEDIUM (NEW):): What are the specific details of the drone surveillance and targeting operations, including thermal imaging, conducted by RF units as shown in the "Сливочный каприз" video (17:26:50)? What specific types of enemy vehicles were identified (e.g., SAU M109 Paladin, MRAP), and what was the outcome of the engagements?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the military significance and message of the "Geranium" drone image shared by Alex Parker Returns (17:18:42), and how does it relate to RF IO campaigns?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What are the specific discussions and outcomes between Ukrainian PM Shmyhal and General Kellogg regarding the transfer of new Patriot systems to Ukraine, as reported by РБК-Україна (17:17:27)? What is the timeline for potential delivery, and what are the specific capabilities of these "new" Patriot systems?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the military intelligence value of the Alex Parker Returns photo message (17:13:23) showing a UN General Assembly vote, with the caption claiming Russia and Ukraine united against Israeli "occupiers, murderers, and bloodsuckers"? Is this a genuine alignment on a specific issue, or an RF IO attempt to create a false narrative of unity?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the military intelligence value of the "Вакуум власти" (Vacuum of Power) message from Рыбарь (17:14:02)? Does it refer to a specific political situation in Ukraine, Russia, or elsewhere, and what are its potential implications?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What are the specific details of the extended arrest of Artemiy Ostanin, the comedian accused of inciting hatred against SVO participants, as reported by TASS (17:14:56), Colonelcassad (17:15:09), and Alex Parker Returns (17:31:00)? What is the full extent of the charges, and how is this case being used for RF internal IO?
• MEDIUM (NEW):: What is the military intelligence value of FBI Director Kash Patel's statement regarding Charlie Kirk, as shared by STERNENKO (17:15:22)? Is this being leveraged by UAF for IO to reinforce Western commitment or to counter RF disinformation about the incident?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the direct military relevance of the reported award of the Order of Kutuzov to the Stavropol Airborne Assault Regiment (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 17:41:01)? What specific actions led to this award, and does it indicate heightened operational tempo or success for this unit?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What are the specific details and implications of women signing the "18-24" contract with the UAF General Staff for the first time (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS 17:45:31)? What is the projected number of female recruits, and what roles will they fill? How does this impact UAF's overall manpower and combat readiness?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the precise nature of Donald Trump's "patience running out" statement regarding Putin, as reported by Военкор Котенок (17:46:40)? Is this a direct quote, or an interpretation, and how might it influence RF's decision-making or IO?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the full context and impact of the video shared by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (17:57:01) showing an RF "SVO participant" after a prisoner exchange, claiming to be unfit for service but being sent back to the front? What is the RF unit of the soldier, and what are the implications for RF mobilization and troop morale?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the intelligence value of the discussion by TASS (18:03:01) regarding former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov's corruption charges? Does this internal RF corruption indicate systemic weaknesses in logistics or procurement that UAF could exploit?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What are the specific implications of the expected prolonged geomagnetic storms for military operations, particularly regarding communications, navigation, and ISR systems for both RF and UAF? (TASS 21:19:01)
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the precise legal basis and potential impact of the EU's intention to tighten visa policy for Russian citizens? Will this include all citizens or specific categories? (ТАСС 04:27:01Z).
• LOW (NEW): What are the implications of the reported increase in basic food product prices in Ukraine, and the relative decrease in cabbage prices, for civilian morale and economic stability?
• LOW (NEW): What is the precise nature and impact of the reported "geomagnetic disturbances" on military operations or communication systems?
• LOW (NEW): What is the full scope and intent of the State Duma's proposal to equate vapes to narcotics?
• LOW (NEW): What is the precise nature of the technical work causing temporary unavailability of the Alfa-Bank mobile application, and does it indicate any underlying cyber vulnerabilities?
• LOW (NEW): What is the full context and impact of the Coordination Staff for POWs meeting with families of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade? What specific information or support was provided, and what are the key concerns of the families?
• LOW (NEW): What are the specific actions being taken by the Coordination Staff for POWs in terms of public messaging, and what is their intended effect on families of missing persons and POWs?
• LOW (NEW): What is the significance of the Peterburg artist's administrative arrest in Vyborg due to lack of space in a Petersburg insulator, as reported by "Север.Реалии"? Does this reflect systemic issues in RF's judicial or detention system?
• LOW (NEW): What is the specific impact of the Central Bank of Russia lowering the key rate to 16%, and Nabiullina's statements on inflation and housing prices, on the broader RF economy and its ability to sustain the war effort?
• LOW (NEW): What is the military significance of TASS reporting on a cable car accident on Elbrus resulting in fatalities?
• LOW (NEW): What is the exact purpose and military significance of the images shared by "Полиция Хабаровского края" that do not depict military activity, but instead religious ceremonies, crypts, and civilian handshakes?
• LOW (NEW): What is the military significance of RF Human Rights Council head Fadeev discussing returning to oral exams in schools due to AI use? Does this indicate a broader RF concern about the impact of AI on education or a specific security concern?
• LOW (NEW): What is the full context and impact of the VChK-OGPU report on catastrophic water supply issues in occupied Donetsk Oblast and the potential for a social explosion? Does this represent a significant internal weakness for RF control?
• LOW (NEW): What are the specific goals and intended impact of Zelenskyy's statement about how to stop the war?
• LOW (NEW):: What are the specific context and message behind Zelenskyy's humorous comparison of Kellogg's to air defense?
• LOW (NEW):: What are the specific details and implications of the RF State Duma considering a bill for year-round conscription?
• LOW (NEW): What is the intelligence value of the cat image shared by Два майора? (Два майора message).
• LOW (NEW):: What is the intelligence value of the Басурин о главном messages containing images of a nursery or medical facility? (Басурин о главном messages).
• LOW (NEW): What is the intelligence value of Alex Parker Returns' "Апчхи" photo message? (Alex Parker Returns message).
• LOW (NEW): What is the intelligence value of Alex Parker Returns' photo message about Tyler Robinson's father, and the dining scene? (Alex Parker Returns message).
• LOW (NEW):: What is the intelligence value of the Басурин о главном messages recommending other channels? (Басурин о главном message).
• LOW (NEW): What is the intelligence value of the Colonelcassad message about Telegram bot failures and "bot counter-offensives" in comments? Does this reveal internal RF IO vulnerabilities or technical issues? (Colonelcassad message 16:10:08)
• LOW (NEW): What is the military intelligence value of the civilian traffic incident in Stavropol reported by TASS? (TASS message 16:26:01)
• LOW (NEW): What are the specific implications of Israel rejecting a UN GA resolution on a two-state solution? How does this influence RF or UAF diplomatic efforts or international support? (TASS message 16:33:03)
• LOW (NEW): What are the details of "Time for Friday repression" message from Colonelcassad? Is this military, political, or social in nature? (Colonelcassad message 16:33:01)
• LOW (NEW): What are the specific details regarding the "Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Weekly summary" video from 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦? Specifically, are there any identifiable military units mentioned or significant tactical developments beyond the humanitarian aid and infrastructure efforts? (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 message 16:24:29)
• LOW (NEW): What is the military significance of the announcement from РБК-Україна about Sibiga announcing exhumations of Ukrainian victims of the Volyn tragedy in Poland? Is this likely to impact current military operations or primarily a diplomatic/historical issue? (РБК-Україна message 16:32:57)
• LOW (NEW): What is the tactical significance of the drone footage showing a small toy airplane with text overlays satirizing Russian drone attacks, as shared by "Janus Putkonen" (16:50:33)? Is this a widespread IO tactic in Poland, and what is its effectiveness?
• LOW (NEW): What is the specific context and military intelligence value of the downed commercial quadcopter with "Терроризировать" (Terrorize) written on it, found in a cemetery, as shown in "Janus Putkonen"'s video (16:50:33)? Was this drone successfully intercepted by UAF, and what was its intended mission?
• LOW (NEW): What is the military intelligence value of Oleg Sinegubov's (Харківської ОДА) multiple photo messages celebrating athletes and coaches (17:17:46)? Is this a broader civilian morale-boosting effort or is there a direct link to military personnel or readiness?
• LOW (NEW):: What is the significance of the TASS report (21:30:15) that the majority of UN countries did not sign a statement on RF's involvement in the UAV incident in Poland? Does this indicate weakening international consensus against RF, or is it a limited diplomatic development without broader implications? What is the specific content of the statement that was not signed?
• LOW (NEW): What is the military intelligence value of the TASS photo message (21:33:34) regarding the RF Central Election Commission's analysis of electoral legislation? Is this a standard post-election process, or does it signal potential changes to electoral law that could impact mobilization or future referendums?
• LOW (NEW): What is the intelligence value of the "Клуб Алиева" (Aliyev's Club) in Russia, as reported by Операция Z (23:08:30)? Is this a political or social movement, and what are its implications for internal Russian stability or foreign relations with Azerbaijan? TASS (00:10:17) reports that scammers are using "Госуслуги" (Russian government services portal) to steal codes under the pretext of confirming residency. This is a domestic internal security/cyber crime issue with no direct military intelligence value at this time. UPDATE: Colonelcassad (01:03:01) reports TCC officers beat a man in Dnipro, sharing video. (Confidence: HIGH). TASS (03:09:13Z) shares photo messages related to the criminal case of ex-Deputy Minister of Defense Timur Ivanov, showing "personalized watches with the engraving 'There is only one Timur Ivanov like this'". This is an internal RF anti-corruption/propaganda effort, not directly military but could signal internal power struggles. (Confidence: LOW) NEW: TASS (03:14:34Z) reports that the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade recommends that regional authorities abandon the "pejorative" name "medovukha" (mead). This is a purely civilian, domestic cultural/economic issue with no direct military intelligence value. (Confidence: LOW)
• 03:42:38Z, Два майора: "Summary for the morning of September 13, 2025" (Confidence: HIGH)
• 03:45:33Z, РБК-Україна: Photo message about Kim Jong Un's potential successor (13 years old). (Confidence: LOW)
• 04:01:01Z, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺: Photo message: "Airborne brotherhood, family!" (Confidence: LOW)
• 04:03:01Z, Colonelcassad: Photo message: "USA risks losing 'drone war': why Washington lags behind China in countering drones". (Confidence: HIGH)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (Confidence: HIGH)

• Capabilities:

  • Sustained Ground Offensive with Massed Forces & Expanded Scope: RF demonstrates the capability for sustained, multi-axis ground offensives, achieving localized breakthroughs (Pokrovsk, Siversk, Lyman, Konstantinovka, Kirovsk, Novomykolaivka, Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye, Berezove, Novoselivka, South Donetsk). Confirmed capability for new advances and "liberation" in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye, Novomykolaivka, Berezove, Novoselivka), a significant expansion of operational scope, with objectives to encircle UAF forces in Velykomykhailivka. Rosgvardia has been armed with tank/anti-tank guns, SPGs, and MLRS, enhancing RF's ground combat capability. RF has specialized armored units ("Terminator") and a T-90M Proryv tank capability against UAF UAV command posts. RF is proficient in FPV drone operations for close-quarters combat and strikes on urban positions (e.g., Polohy direction) and against UAF artillery logistics (e.g., 155mm charge destruction) and against UAF UAV control posts and communications. RF units can conduct integrated ISR and direct engagement on multiple fronts (e.g., South Donetsk). RF is capable of managing combat casualties and maintaining medical support. RF is also employing non-standard vehicles (buggies, ATVs, motorcycles) for tactical purposes. RF airborne units can conduct offensive actions. RF demonstrates enhanced homeland air defense capabilities against mass drone attacks, claiming 42 UAVs shot down overnight, and effectively downing 33 UAVs in the latest wave. RF demonstrates capability to conduct large-scale, multi-domain military training through the "West-2025" exercises, including naval power projection and long-range missile strikes from Arctic positions (Bastion complexes). RF demonstrates capability for effective counter-drone operations using snipers against heavy strike UAVs ("Baba Yaga"). RF's Southern Grouping of Forces can destroy UAF UAV control posts and Starlink antennas, impacting UAF C2. RF demonstrates sustained military industrial production and modernization capabilities, delivering new BMP-3s and modernized BMD-2s to troops, as further confirmed by Poddubny. RF army aviation provides direct air support for ground advances (e.g., Iziumskyi district, Zaporizhzhia). The RF 68th ORB demonstrates capability for precise counter-C2 strikes against UAF communications (Starlink). RF "Sparta" battalion demonstrates capability for precision FPV drone strikes to destroy UAF UAV control points and communication antennas. RF is reportedly testing a "heavy drone evading EW," indicating an advanced counter-EW capability in development. RF 215th Combined Arms Army demonstrates combat training with AGS-17 Plamya, indicating continued readiness in the SVO zone. RF shows capability for active drone operations against Hryshyno. RF demonstrates ability to use military chaplains to support and motivate troops. RF "Anvar" special forces demonstrate capability to conduct thermal imaging drone-assisted attacks on convoys, supporting offensive operations on the Sumy axis. RF demonstrates a significant and sustained offensive tempo, claiming daily advances of up to 40 km² per day. MoD Russia claims capability to strike Ukrainian defense industry, transport, energy infrastructure, military airfields, and depots from 6-12 September, demonstrating sustained, high-precision strike capabilities. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows RF capability for active combat operations with drone surveillance and targeting, including destruction of military vehicles. "Воин DV" video shows RF capability for active FPV drone operations, engaging light vehicles and personnel. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video confirms RF capability for large-scale, multi-branch exercises ("West-2025") with strategic assets (bombers, submarines). Оперативний ЗСУ highlights RF's increasing use of FPV "Zhduny" (ambush) drones, indicating a specialized FPV drone tactic. "Два майора" video acknowledging donations suggests RF reliance on public support for armored vehicles and batteries. Colonelcassad's video on "4th auto column" highlights RF's intent to sustain and enhance its logistical support for ground forces through civilian mobilization. "Воин DV"'s video from Zaporizhzhia demonstrates RF's capability to operate evacuation groups under fire and highlights identification of enemy weapons (Turkish self-loading rifle). "Старше Эдды" video implies RF capability in reactive artillery operations. New video from "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shows Russian border guards destroying UAF equipment, infantry, and positions on the Bryansk-Chernihiv direction, indicating a sustained cross-border interdiction capability. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" videos showcasing new Russian UGVs ('Kurier', 'Fagot') for direct fire support, mine-laying, and reconnaissance, representing a significant technological advancement in ground combat. "Старше Эдды" video featuring Senior Lieutenant Ivan Kurbatov from the 90th Tank Division demonstrates RF's operational capability with modern tanks in assault operations and their ability to integrate combat footage into morale-boosting propaganda. Colonelcassad's report on a destroyed UAF PVD and three vehicles in Sumy Oblast indicates RF's capability to conduct effective localized strikes against UAF rear area assets. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition's video of RF forces operating a captured hexacopter "Baba Yaga" demonstrates RF's adaptive capability to integrate and exploit captured enemy technology for its own combat operations. Kadyrov_95 shares video footage of the 78th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Sever-Akhmat" conducting artillery strikes on enemy positions, demonstrating active combat operations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports the appearance of Russian FPV drones in the central part of Kramatorsk, indicating RF's capability to conduct FPV operations deep within UAF-controlled urban areas. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares FPV drone footage showing a truck on a dirt road in a wooded area in the Iziumskyi district of Kharkiv Oblast, confirming RF's continuous FPV drone reconnaissance and targeting capabilities in this sector. Военкор Котенок's aerial footage of Vovchansk indicates RF's sustained destructive capability in urban warfare, likely from artillery and air strikes. "Рыбарь" map "Армия берет восток" (Army takes the East) visually confirms RF's ability to document and publicize territorial gains, reinforcing a narrative of successful offensive operations (Confidence: HIGH). "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" photo of RF airborne troops on the Konstantinovka direction confirms RF's ability to maintain a strong ground presence in key offensive sectors (Confidence: HIGH). "Воин DV" video displays RF's capability for aerial reconnaissance over urban and rural environments, showcasing military vehicles and demonstrating their ability to operate in contested areas. (Confidence: HIGH) "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" video shows RF's capability for active drone surveillance and potentially targeting of vehicles at night using thermal imaging. (Confidence: HIGH) "Два майора" video highlights RF marine special forces' capability in coastal defense operations, effectively using FPV drones against USVs and other threats, particularly at night. (Confidence: HIGH) Colonelcassad's video about the "4th auto column" highlights RF's intent to sustain and enhance its logistical support for ground forces through civilian mobilization. (Confidence: HIGH) RF Spetsnaz "Anvar" will continue cross-border interdiction operations and engagement of UAF PVDs and positions along the border (Confidence: HIGH). RF "Otvazhnye" units will maintain high-intensity offensive operations around Pokrovsk, focusing on degrading NATO-provided equipment and UAF positions (Confidence: HIGH). "Сливочный каприз" video demonstrates RF's ongoing ISR and targeting capabilities, employing thermal imaging drones to identify and track UAF vehicles and movements in both urban and rural settings (Confidence: HIGH). MoD Russia shares a video detailing servicemen of the 37th Separate Guards Motorised Rifle Brigade (Vostok Group of Forces) liberating Novopetrovskoye (Dnepropetrovsk region) during offensive operations. This confirms unit involvement in a key territorial gain (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports the Stavropol Airborne Assault Regiment was awarded the Order of Kutuzov, indicating recognition of combat effectiveness and potentially a morale boost (Confidence: HIGH). Басурин о главном shares a video of Ukrainian military personnel handling a hexacopter drone in Dnepropetrovsk region, with a Russian overlay implying RF forces have either captured or repurposed the drone, or are conducting counter-UAV operations. This highlights RF's adaptive capabilities (Confidence: HIGH). Два майора (18:23:25) shares video of RF soldiers loading heavy ammunition, indicating continued RF capacity for sustained artillery or heavy machine gun fire, particularly on the Siverske direction. Два майора (18:33:00) shares drone thermal imagery showing multiple explosions and artillery impacts in the Siverske direction, confirming active RF artillery capabilities and effective targeting of UAF positions. TASS reports RF forces have taken control of Alekseevsky Island. This indicates RF's capability to secure key terrain along the Dnipro River, likely through combined ground and riverine operations. (Confidence: MEDIUM) "Воин DV" archive footage demonstrates RF's continued capability for effective FPV drone operations against UAF engineering equipment and defensive positions on the South Donetsk direction. (Confidence: HIGH) RF milbloggers (Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z, Colonelcassad, «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат») confirming RF penetration of Kupiansk via gas pipes demonstrates a highly innovative and covert infiltration capability, leveraging existing infrastructure to bypass UAF defenses. (Confidence: HIGH) MoD Russia shares drone footage showcasing RF's integrated FPV drone and artillery targeting capabilities against UAF convoys, armored vehicles, and personnel, demonstrating high combat effectiveness. (Confidence: HIGH) Kotsnews and Рыбарь share drone footage depicting a soldier in a trench in a wooded area, likely near Kupiansk, suggesting RF's continuous ISR capabilities to monitor UAF positions. (Confidence: HIGH) TASS reports Russian forces have advanced near Kupiansk and taken two railway stations under fire control. This demonstrates RF's capability to disrupt UAF logistical lines and exert greater control over key transportation nodes in the Kupiansk sector. (Confidence: HIGH) Colonelcassad's drone footage near Hryshyno, depicting a motorcycle group, a pickup, and an artillery piece under surveillance, indicates RF's ongoing capability for localized ground reconnaissance, target identification, and potential engagement using drone assets, including against light vehicle groups and artillery. (Confidence: HIGH) TASS reports RF forces have taken control of forests southwest of Vovchansk, indicating an ability to conduct localized advances and consolidate positions in contested areas. (Confidence: HIGH) TASS reports RF forces are advancing on Siversk in the DPR from three sides, highlighting a coordinated multi-directional offensive capability and intent to encircle or further pressure UAF positions. (Confidence: HIGH). "Операция Z" (RusVesna) provides a detailed text on Russia's strategic focus on the Arctic, including resource development and advanced technology deployment. This indicates a long-term strategic capability for resource acquisition, scientific development, and potentially dual-use military applications in extreme environments. (Confidence: HIGH). TASS reports RF forces have started battles for Zvanovka near Siversk in the DPR, further demonstrating RF's capability to initiate ground engagements in a contested sector. (Confidence: HIGH). TASS (02:08:01Z) reports RF Armed Forces are clearing the outskirts of Krasny Liman near Torske and Kirovsk in the DPR, indicating ongoing ground and special operations to consolidate control and eliminate remaining UAF resistance in the area. (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: TASS (03:22:02Z) reports RF Armed Forces destroyed a UAF grouping trapped in northern Konstantinovka. This indicates a capability for localized encirclement and destruction of UAF forces. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: TASS (03:28:24Z) reports a military commandant prevented the destruction of an RF ammunition train. This suggests RF has measures in place to protect critical logistical assets from UAF interdiction attempts. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: TASS (03:37:53Z, 03:37:54Z) reports RF "Vostok" assault group conducted a night assault to occupy UAF positions in a forest belt on the South Donetsk direction, indicating capability for tactical night operations and localized gains. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: TASS (03:47:01Z) reports a UAF group is surrounded in a forest area near Ambarnoye in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating RF's capability for localized encirclement tactics and an active threat to UAF forces. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: TASS (04:09:14Z) reports RF MoD stated 42 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions overnight, indicating a robust air defense capability against a persistent drone threat. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (04:10:16Z) reports a 38-year-old woman injured in Zaporizhzhia Raion due to enemy shelling, demonstrating RF's continued capability to target civilian areas with artillery. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (04:30:05Z) reports RF targeted Nikopol Raion with FPV drones and artillery, attacking the district center and Marhanets community. This indicates RF's continued capability for persistent, localized FPV drone and artillery strikes against UAF-controlled areas. (Confidence: HIGH)

• Air/Naval Forces: RF continues large-scale "West-2025" exercises with Northern and Pacific Fleets (frigates, destroyers, submarines, strategic bombers), demonstrating multi-domain power projection capability. Tactical aviation (MiG-31K, other tactical aircraft) capable of launching Kinzhal and KABs. RF Air Force is capable of mid-air refueling operations (as depicted in Chinese Air Force training video, implying similar RF capabilities for extended air operations). Bastion complexes from Franz Josef Land launched Oniks missiles as part of "West-2025" exercises, demonstrating long-range missile strike capability from Arctic positions. (Confidence: HIGH)

• UAV/EW Capabilities: Highly active and adaptive FPV drone operations (including "Zhduny" ambush drones), reconnaissance UAVs, and EW against UAF C2 (Starlink, UAV control points). RF is testing "heavy drones evading EW." RF homeland air defense is active, reporting UAV debris fall in Volgograd Oblast and claiming 42 UAVs shot down overnight. (Confidence: HIGH)

• Logistics & Sustainment: Sustained military industrial production (new BMP-3s, modernized BMD-2s). Reliance on volunteer efforts for vehicle supply (Niva modifications). Evidence of robust medical/evacuation groups operating under fire. RF demonstrated the ability to prevent the destruction of an RF ammunition train, indicating a focus on protecting critical logistical assets. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• Command & Control: Effective coordination of multi-axis ground offensives with air and drone support. Centralized messaging via MoD reports and state media. (Confidence: HIGH)

• Hybrid & IO: Robust, adaptive, multi-layered information warfare capabilities, including state media (TASS), milbloggers (Colonelcassad, RusVesna, Rybar, Poddubny), and diplomatic channels (Zakharova). Capable of rapid narrative generation ("nuclear terrorism," "TCC brutality," "USA risks losing 'drone war'"), exploiting Western internal divisions, and promoting long-term strategic goals. (Confidence: HIGH)

• Intentions:

  • Strategic Objective: To fully control Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts, and establish a "buffer zone" along the Russian border. Long-term aspiration for Odesa and Mykolaiv by 2027. Maintain Arctic strategic presence and project power. Undermine Western support for Ukraine.
  • Tactical Objectives:
    • Kupiansk Axis: Consolidate gains from "Труба 3.0" infiltration, secure railway stations, and establish full control of the city.
    • Lyman Axis: Exploit recent gains at Kolodyazi, Kirovsk, and Zarechnoye to advance on Krasny Liman, potentially linking up with Konstantinovka axis, and conducting clearing operations in surrounding areas (Torske, Kirovsk). Initiate battles for Zvanovka.
    • Siversk Axis: Continue multi-directional pressure and engage in battles for Zvanovka to encircle/force UAF withdrawal.
    • Pokrovsk-Myrnograd Agglomeration: Continue urban combat in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and advance towards Myrnograd.
    • Dnipropetrovsk Salient: Complete encirclement of Velykomykhailivka, expand control (Novopetrovskoye, Novomykolaivka), and secure flanks. Maintain FPV drone and artillery pressure on Nikopol Raion.
    • Vovchansk Axis: Consolidate control of forests southwest of Vovchansk and maintain pressure.
    • Orikhiv Axis: Maintain strong defensive posture, destroy UAF sabotage/reconnaissance groups, and consolidate recent offensive gains to control "grey zones" and potentially push UAF further back.
    • Konstantinovka Axis: Continue to press UAF defenses and exploit any weaknesses, as claimed by the destruction of a UAF grouping in northern Konstantinovka.
    • South Donetsk Axis: Secure and expand recently occupied positions in forest belts through night assaults.
    • Kharkiv Oblast (Ambarnoye): Exploit the encirclement of UAF forces near Ambarnoye.
    • Sumy/Chernihiv Border: Conduct cross-border interdiction and "buffer zone" clearing operations.
    • Deep Strikes: Continue to degrade Ukrainian DIB, energy, and transport infrastructure, aiming to reduce UAF combat effectiveness and civilian resilience.
    • Information Operations: Exploit any UAF setbacks, civilian casualties, or internal Ukrainian issues (e.g., TCC actions) for propaganda purposes. Promote RF military prowess and Western weaknesses.
    • Space Domain: Continue military space launches to enhance ISR, communications, and navigation capabilities to support ongoing operations.
    • Arctic Operations: Demonstrate and enhance Arctic defense and power projection capabilities through exercises like "West-2025" including long-range missile strikes.

• Courses of Action (COA): (No change from previous MLCOAs/MDCOAs, but added detail based on new messages).

2.2. Recent tactical changes or adaptations (Confidence: HIGH)

• Kupiansk Infiltration ("Труба 3.0"): RF forces are using gas pipes under the Oskil River for covert infiltration into Kupiansk with assault groups on scooters/carts, demonstrating significant tactical ingenuity and adaptive use of terrain/infrastructure. This is a critical and unique adaptation.
• Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs): Deployment of "Kurier" (machine guns, mine-laying) and "Fagot" (autocannons, mine-laying) UGVs indicates a new phase of robotic warfare.
• Targeted Mobilization: TASS reports UAF is mobilizing residents from Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts more frequently. RF will use this for IO, but it highlights UAF's efforts to address manpower needs in specific regions.
• Aggressive FPV Drone Deployment: Increased use of FPV drones in urban environments (central Kramatorsk) and specialized "Zhduny" ambush drones indicates a refined FPV doctrine. RF continues FPV drone and artillery attacks in Nikopol Raion, indicating persistent localized pressure.
• Multi-Directional Pressure (Siversk): RF is explicitly advancing on Siversk from three sides, a coordinated tactical approach to overwhelm UAF defenses.
• Consolidated Defensive Operations (Orikhiv): RF is now openly claiming a "deep defense" posture in Orikhiv while also claiming offensive gains, suggesting a strategy of holding key lines while conducting localized offensive actions. This is an adaptation from previously solely offensive narratives.
• Military Space Launch: The successful launch of a "Soyuz-2.1b" from Plesetsk for the RF MoD indicates a continued and possibly intensified focus on enhancing space-based military capabilities to support ground operations and ISR.
• Logistical Security (NEW): RF demonstrated an immediate response and capability to prevent the destruction of an ammunition train, highlighting a focus on securing critical supply lines.
• Arctic Power Projection (NEW): The use of Bastion complexes to launch Oniks missiles from Franz Josef Land during "West-2025" exercises demonstrates RF's increasing focus on and capability for long-range power projection and military operations in the Arctic region.
• Night Assault Operations (NEW): RF "Vostok" assault groups conducting night assaults to occupy UAF positions in forest belts on the South Donetsk direction indicates a refinement of tactical TTPs for exploiting low visibility conditions.
• Localized Encirclement (NEW): The reported encirclement of a UAF group near Ambarnoye in Kharkiv Oblast suggests RF's continued use of localized encirclement tactics to gain tactical advantage.
• Enhanced Homeland Air Defense: RF claims 42 Ukrainian UAVs shot down overnight across its regions, indicating a continued, high-volume drone threat to Russian territory and RF's sustained air defense response.

2.3. Logistics and sustainment status (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• Production & Deliveries: Sustained military production and delivery of new and modernized armored vehicles (BMP-3s, BMD-2s) suggest RF continues to manage its industrial capacity despite sanctions.
• Volunteer Support: Continued reliance on volunteer efforts for vehicles (e.g., Niva conversions) and donations for airborne troops suggests some gaps in official supply chains or a supplementary system for specialized needs.
• Logistical Routes: UAF deep strikes on the Transneft oil pumping station in Vladimir Oblast and Primorsk port have disrupted RF energy and potentially military fuel supply lines. The reported suspension of oil shipments from Primorsk (RBC-Ukraine) would be a significant economic and logistical impact. RF has also established fire control over UAF logistical routes near Krasny Liman and Izium-Barvinkove. RF claims a military commandant prevented the destruction of an ammunition train, suggesting that while UAF interdiction efforts are active, RF has some defensive measures in place.
• Ammunition: Unconfirmed claims of a "VT-40" FPV drone destroying a 155mm M203A1 propelling charge storage site would indicate successful RF targeting of UAF artillery ammunition, impacting UAF sustainment.
• Air Defense & Supply Chain Resilience: The large number of UAVs claimed shot down by RF (42 overnight) indicates a high rate of consumption of air defense munitions. The repeated UAF deep strikes against RF industrial and energy infrastructure (Smolensk, Primorsk, Vtorovo) highlight vulnerabilities in RF's rear area logistics and energy supply. The damage from UAV debris in Volgograd Oblast indicates continued vulnerability of RF territory to drone attacks, regardless of origin.
• Manpower: RF's internal reporting of the "SVO participant" unfit for service but sent back to the front (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) suggests potential stress on manpower and a disregard for soldier welfare after prisoner exchanges. UAF's alleged targeted mobilization (TASS) also points to ongoing manpower needs.

2.4. Command and control effectiveness (Confidence: HIGH)

• Coordinated Operations: RF continues to demonstrate coordinated multi-axis ground offensives with integrated air and drone support, including night assaults and long-range missile strikes from remote locations.
• Counter-C2 Operations: RF FPV drone operators are actively targeting UAF UAV control points and communications antennas (Starlink, Dimitrov, Siversk), indicating an intent to disrupt UAF C2.
• Information Control: RF maintains a robust and adaptive information control mechanism, rapidly deploying narratives (e.g., "nuclear terrorism," "TCC brutality") and engaging in extensive IO campaigns. The ability to coordinate milblogger reports (e.g., Kupiansk infiltration) across multiple channels indicates strong centralized guidance.
• Geomagnetic Storm Vulnerability: The upcoming prolonged geomagnetic storms could severely impact both RF and UAF C2, particularly satellite communications and GPS-dependent systems. RF's ability to maintain C2 during such an event will be a critical test.
• Internal Security: RF detention of individuals for financing UAF or planning assassination plots suggests ongoing internal security concerns that their C2 attempts to mitigate. The internal criminal case against ex-Deputy Minister of Defense Timur Ivanov indicates ongoing anti-corruption efforts or internal power struggles that could impact C2 effectiveness if widespread.
• Training & Readiness: The "West-2025" exercises demonstrate RF's ability to plan and execute large-scale, multi-domain training, which contributes to C2 effectiveness. The presence of the 215th Combined Arms Army's motorized rifle regiment conducting drills with AGS-17 Plamya suggests ongoing combat training and readiness.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian force posture and readiness (Confidence: HIGH)

• Defensive Posture: UAF is engaged in active defensive operations across multiple axes, repelling numerous RF attacks (130 engagements reported in 24 hours). TASS reports a "deep defense" posture on the Orikhiv direction. UAF forces in Zaporizhzhia Raion are under enemy shelling, highlighting continued defensive pressure.
• Tactical Successes: UAF forces have reportedly "cleared and liberated" Shakhove and Volodymyrivka on the Dobropillya direction (requires verification), indicating localized counter-offensive capability. The "Shkval" battalion conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. UAF SSO snipers demonstrated effective close-quarters combat in the Zaporizhzhia direction. UAF's 100th Separate Mechanized Brigade conducted successful strikes on RF armor and personnel.
• Air Defense: UAF Air Force reports 33 of 40 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed in the last wave, demonstrating continued effectiveness against persistent RF drone attacks. RF claims of 42 UAVs shot down over its regions overnight (TASS 04:09:14Z) suggest a high volume of UAF deep strike attempts, indicating continued offensive drone operations.
• Deep Strike Capabilities: HUR successfully struck and disabled an RF Black Sea Fleet vessel (Project MPSV07) near Novorossiysk. UAF drones conducted successful deep strikes against the Transneft oil pumping station in Vladimir Oblast and Primorsk port, demonstrating expanded range and strategic targeting capability. An active UAF interdiction attempt against an RF ammunition train was reported.
• Adaptive Counter-Tactics: UAF 'Lazar' unit successfully used FPV drones and pre-planted mines to destroy a bridge near Nova Tavolzhanka, disrupting RF logistics. UAF drone operators are actively engaging camouflaged RF soldiers (79th Airmobile Brigade). UAF is deploying new advanced UAVs (47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura").
• Manpower & Mobilization: Reports of 6100 young men (18-22) leaving Ukraine for Poland in a week, and targeted mobilization efforts in southern/eastern oblasts, suggest ongoing manpower challenges. The potential consideration of mobile network shutdowns during air raid alerts suggests drastic measures to control public information and likely a response to challenges in maintaining order during alerts. The alleged beating of a man by TCC officers in Dnipro (Colonelcassad 01:03:01) indicates potential issues with mobilization practices and public trust.
• Resource Requirements: The 72nd Brigade on the Kupiansk direction has an urgent need for a retranslator, indicating potential communication and C2 challenges for this unit.
• Internal Security: A shootout with two fatalities in Lviv Oblast indicates internal security incidents, though the link to the conflict is not yet clear.
• Western Aid: The 141st Mechanized Brigade has received Croatian M-84 tanks, indicating continued Western military aid and modernization efforts. President Zelenskyy meeting with UK, German, French, and Italian advisors underscores ongoing high-level diplomatic efforts to secure continued Western support. Expanded military cooperation with Poland (47 billion Euro SAFE instrument) indicates future joint defense projects.

3.2. Recent tactical successes or setbacks (Confidence: HIGH)

• Successes:

  • Dobropillya Axis: Claimed "clearing and liberation" of Shakhove and Volodymyrivka. (Verification required)
  • Dnipropetrovsk/Donetsk Border: "Shkval" battalion's successful offensive operation.
  • Zaporizhzhia Direction: SSO snipers' successful close-quarters assault on enemy trenches.
  • Deep Strikes: Successful strikes on RF Black Sea Fleet vessel (Project MPSV07), Transneft oil pumping station (Vladimir Oblast), and Primorsk oil port. UAF drone attacks on Russian regions continue, with 42 UAVs claimed shot down by RF overnight (TASS 04:09:14Z).
  • Air Defense: Effective interception of 33 of 40 RF UAVs.
  • Counter-Interdiction: "Morok" assault battalion's remote mining operations stopping an RF intercept attempt. UAF attempt to destroy an RF ammunition train (TASS 03:28:24Z).
  • Infrastructure Destruction (RF territory): Destruction of a bridge near Nova Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, disrupting RF logistics.
  • Anti-Armor/Personnel: 100th Separate Mechanized Brigade's successful strikes on RF tank, armored vehicle, and personnel.
  • RF Losses: UAF General Staff reports 890 RF personnel eliminated in the last 24 hours.

• Setbacks:

  • Lyman Axis: RF claims significant gains at Kolodyazi and Kirovsk, and are clearing the outskirts of Krasny Liman near Torske and Kirovsk. (Verification critical)
  • Konstantinovka Axis: RF claims destruction of a UAF grouping in northern Konstantinovka (TASS 03:22:02Z). (Verification critical)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Salient: RF "liberation" of Sosnovka and Novopetrovskoye, and claimed "dislodgement" from Novomykolaivka, creating a threat of encirclement at Velykomykhailivka. FPV drone and artillery attacks in Nikopol Raion continue to put pressure on UAF. (Verification critical)
  • Kupiansk Axis: RF penetration via "Труба 3.0" tactic and fire control over two railway stations pose a significant threat.
  • Siverske Axis: RF claims capture of an enemy stronghold near Fedorovka and multi-directional advance.
  • South Donetsk Axis: RF "Vostok" assault group reports occupying UAF positions in a forest belt during a night assault. (Verification critical)
  • Kharkiv Oblast (Ambarnoye): Reported encirclement of a UAF group in a forest area near Ambarnoye. (Verification critical)
  • Civilian Casualties/Damage: Continued RF strikes on civilian infrastructure and personnel (Sumy, Kramatorsk, Polohy, Zaporizhzhia Raion).
  • UAF Air Losses: Claimed downing of a UAF Su-27 in Zaporizhzhia (photo evidence, verification critical).

3.3. Resource requirements and constraints (Confidence: HIGH)

• Air Defense Assets: Continued high rate of RF UAV attacks necessitates sustained supply of interceptor missiles and air defense systems. The increasing range of RF KABs on Sumy, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts requires robust multi-layered air defense.
• Counter-UAV Capabilities: Urgent need for advanced counter-UAV technologies and training to counter RF's evolving FPV drone tactics (e.g., "Zhduny"). The appeal for "Lyuti" pilots (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 19:14:55) suggests a focus on specific offensive drone capabilities.
• Communication Equipment: Urgent need for retranslators for units like the 72nd Brigade on the Kupiansk direction to maintain C2 effectiveness.
• Manpower: Ongoing mobilization efforts, including targeted recruitment from specific oblasts and potential departures of young men, highlight continuous manpower requirements.
• Armored Vehicles: Receipt of Croatian M-84 tanks provides a boost, but continued need for modern armored vehicles.
• Artillery Ammunition: Potential RF destruction of 155mm propelling charge storage sites highlights vulnerability in artillery sustainment.
• Winter Preparations: Ongoing restoration work on energy facilities and construction of protective structures for transformers in Zaporizhzhia indicates preparations for sustained operations through winter.
• Medical Supplies/Evacuation: High combat intensity implies ongoing demand for medical supplies and robust casualty evacuation capabilities, especially in areas like Zaporizhzhia Raion experiencing shelling.
• Anti-Infiltration Technology: Immediate need for technology and personnel to detect and counter RF's "Труба 3.0" pipeline infiltration tactic.
• Forest Warfare Training/Equipment: The reported night assault and encirclement in forest areas (South Donetsk, Ambarnoye) highlights a need for specialized training and equipment for forest combat and counter-encirclement.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

4.1. Propaganda and disinformation campaigns (Confidence: HIGH)

• RF Narratives:

  • "Nuclear Terrorism": RF is heavily promoting the narrative of UAF attacking nuclear facilities (Smolensk NPP, Kharkiv Neutron Source) to portray Ukraine as a rogue state and potentially justify escalatory actions.
  • "Ukrainian Weakness/Collapse": Claims of UAF going into "deep defense" in Orikhiv, suffering heavy losses in Lyman/Kirovsk, the claimed destruction of a UAF grouping in northern Konstantinovka, and widespread draft evasion (young men fleeing to Poland) aim to demoralize UAF forces and erode international support. Allegations of TCC officers beating a man in Dnipro are amplified to demonize UAF mobilization efforts and authorities. The reported encirclement of a UAF group near Ambarnoye will be heavily amplified to showcase UAF losses and RF tactical superiority. RF also frames UAF drone activity over Russian regions (42 UAVs shot down overnight) as aggressive acts of a collapsing regime.
  • "RF Ingenuity/Success": The "Труба 3.0" Kupiansk infiltration tactic is being heavily publicized as a significant RF victory and demonstration of tactical innovation. RF reports of "liberations" and advances across multiple axes are consistently amplified, including night assaults on the South Donetsk direction. RF claims of clearing operations around Krasny Liman (Torske, Kirovsk) reinforces this narrative. RF highlights the prevention of an ammunition train destruction as a success. Exercises like "West-2025" and the long-range missile strike from Franz Josef Land are used to project military strength and advanced capabilities. RF milbloggers are leveraging the perceived US "drone war" lagging behind China to highlight RF's own drone capabilities.
  • "Western Hypocrisy/Instability": RF continues to leverage perceived divisions or events in Western countries (e.g., UN not condemning drone incident in Poland, Kirk assassination narratives, Trump's statements, Fitch downgrading France) to portray Western weakness and internal chaos.
  • "Russian Resilience/Development": Civilian development projects (e.g., Grozny highway), economic discussions within MoD, Arctic strategic focus, and the successful launch of a military "Soyuz" rocket are used to project normalcy, stability, and long-term vision domestically. Military exercises ("West-2025") are showcased as a demonstration of strength. Anti-corruption efforts (Timur Ivanov case) are used to project accountability.
  • "Terrorist War Against Civilians": RF continues to claim UAF is conducting a "terrorist war" against Russian civilians (Belgorod, Bryansk, Moscow, Voronezh), aiming to justify its own actions. This narrative is undermined by the civilian death in Belgorod from a malfunctioning RF Pantsir missile booster. Damage to a residential building from UAV debris in Volgograd Oblast will be used to further this narrative. RF will also highlight civilian casualties from UAF shelling (Zaporizhzhia Raion) and drone activity (Bulgaria drone wash-up) to fuel this narrative.
  • "False Flags/Blame Shifting": RF statements regarding drones over Poland being from Ukraine (Sikorski's comments) aim to deflect blame and sow discord.
  • "Public Health Concerns": TASS video message featuring an epidemiologist discussing vaccinations, while seemingly civilian, can subtly reinforce a narrative of a functioning state concerned with public well-being, contrasting with the alleged chaos in Ukraine.

• UAF Counter-Narratives:

  • Documenting RF War Crimes: UAF milbloggers are actively documenting civilian casualties and damage from RF strikes (Kramatorsk, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia Raion, civilian vehicles), including graphic evidence, to highlight RF brutality. Civilian testimony of RF soldier misconduct (Sudzha) is emerging.
  • Highlighting UAF Successes: UAF deep strikes (Novorossiysk, Transneft, Primorsk) are used to demonstrate expanded capabilities and strategic impact. Tactical successes on Dobropillya and Dnipropetrovsk/Donetsk border are emphasized.
  • International Support: Zelenskyy's meetings with Western advisors and reports of international condemnation of RF drone attacks (e.g., almost 50 UN member states condemning attack on Poland) are used to reinforce international solidarity.
  • Morale Boosting: Videos of Ukrainian soldiers in action, stories of decorated soldiers (46th Brigade), and images of foreign volunteers (Polish volunteer in 25th Airborne Brigade) aim to boost domestic and international morale. Urgent appeals for drone pilots also serve to galvanize public support and donations.

4.2. Public sentiment and morale factors (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• Ukrainian Public:

  • Resilience: Continued resilience despite persistent missile and drone attacks, particularly in frontline cities and regions (e.g., Zaporizhzhia winter preparations, Sumy recovery).
  • Concern: Heightened anxiety due to RF deep strikes (Kyiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia), civilian casualties (Zaporizhzhia Raion), and potential escalation risks (Smolensk NPP).
  • Mobilization Strain: Reports of young men leaving the country and potential TCC misconduct in Dnipro could erode public trust in mobilization efforts. Mobile network shutdowns during air alerts would further impact public sentiment.
  • Mixed Morale: While tactical successes provide a boost, significant RF advances (Lyman, Dnipropetrovsk, Kupiansk infiltration, claimed destruction of a UAF grouping in Konstantinovka, South Donetsk, Ambarnoye) could dampen morale if not effectively countered or explained. The persistent attacks on Nikopol Raion will also impact local morale.

• Russian Public:

  • State-Controlled Narrative: Highly influenced by state media, which consistently portrays RF military success, demonizes Ukraine, and downplays domestic issues.
  • War Fatigue (Limited): While not explicitly stated, appeals for donations for airborne troops and vehicles suggest a need to supplement official resources, indicating potential strain.
  • Growing Dissent (Suppressed): The extended arrest of Artemiy Ostanin for "inciting hatred against SVO participants" indicates internal efforts to suppress dissent and a chilling effect on public criticism. Civilian testimony of soldier misconduct (Sudzha) could cause internal disquiet if widely known.
  • Homeland Security Concerns: Mass drone attacks on RF territory (Leningrad, Rostov, Bryansk, Belgorod, Smolensk, Volgograd) undoubtedly raise concerns about homeland security, even with high interception rates (42 UAVs shot down overnight). The Belgorod Pantsir incident is a significant vulnerability. Civilian airport restrictions in Volgograd and Yaroslavl (TASS 02:16:08Z) will also impact public convenience and could fuel domestic unease. Natural disasters (Kamchatka tsunami threat, Priangarye fire) could divert attention from the conflict but also strain domestic resources.

4.3. International support and diplomatic developments (Confidence: HIGH)

• Continued Western Support: Zelenskyy's meetings with UK, German, French, and Italian advisors confirm ongoing high-level diplomatic engagement to secure continued military and financial support. Expanded military cooperation with Poland (47 billion Euro SAFE instrument) indicates long-term commitment. EU considering tightening visa policy for Russian citizens (TASS 04:27:01Z) signals continued pressure.
• RF Diplomatic Isolation: Almost 50 UN member states condemned RF drone attack on Poland, indicating continued international diplomatic pressure.
• RF Counter-Efforts: RF is actively working to undermine international consensus against it:
  • UN Vote Leveraging: TASS reports the majority of UN countries did not sign a statement on RF's involvement in the UAV incident in Poland, which RF will amplify to project a lack of international unity.
  • Exploiting Western Internal Politics: RF is leveraging the Kirk assassination and Trump's statements (e.g., "persecution of Soros") to sow discord and exploit US political divisions, attempting to undermine Western leadership. The TASS report on USA believing Kirk's killer acted alone feeds into this narrative.
  • Diplomatic Ties: Syria's intent to maintain ties with Russia (TASS) indicates RF is shoring up existing alliances.
  • Economic Pressure: TASS reports US urging G7 countries to impose duties against buyers of Russian oil, indicating continued Western economic pressure, which RF will portray as desperate and ineffective.
  • NATO Clarifications: The NATO general's statement that "Operation Eastern Guardian" does not include integration with Ukrainian air defense could be leveraged by RF to highlight perceived limitations of NATO support.
• China Factor: Colonelcassad's posts about Chinese Air Force training (air-to-air refueling) could be interpreted by RF as a subtle signal of potential future support or at least a demonstration of capable allies, even if the content itself is general military training. RF milbloggers are also actively assessing "why Washington lags behind China in countering drones," indicating an awareness of and interest in global military-technological shifts.
• EU Sanctions: TASS reports on extended EU sanctions, which RF will continue to attempt to mitigate or dismiss.
• Fitch Downgrade of France: This will be leveraged by RF to highlight Western economic and political instability.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most likely enemy courses of action (MLCOA)

• MLCOA 1 (Ground Offensive Reinforcement & Consolidation - Pokrovsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Lyman, Kupiansk, Kherson, South Donetsk, Sumy, Siverske, Konstantinovka, Vovchansk, Orikhiv): RF main effort will focus on consolidating and exploiting recent gains.
  • Kupiansk Axis (CRITICAL): RF will reinforce the infiltration into Kupiansk via the "Труба 3.0" tactic, attempting to establish a strong foothold within the city, expanding its control, and disrupting UAF defenses from within. The observed soldier in a trench («Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» 03:18:51) in the Kupiansk area suggests RF is preparing for or conducting further consolidation/advance here. RF will also leverage its newly gained fire control over two railway stations near Kupiansk to further disrupt UAF logistics and reinforce its offensive posture.
  • Lyman Axis: RF will commit significant forces to solidify control over Kolodyazi and Kirovsk, pushing towards Krasny Liman, and seeking to link up with forces advancing on the Konstantinovka axis. Clearing operations around Torske and Kirovsk will continue to eliminate remaining UAF resistance.
  • Dnipropetrovsk Salient: RF will continue to expand the salient, aiming to complete the encirclement of Velykomykhailivka, and will likely attempt to seize Novoivanivka and other key settlements to secure the flanks of its new positions. Persistent FPV drone and artillery attacks in Nikopol Raion will continue to fix UAF forces.
  • Pokrovsk Axis: Sustained urban combat in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) will continue, with RF aiming to achieve full control and advance towards Myrnograd.
  • Sumy Axis: RF will continue probing and localized offensive operations on the Sumy front (Yunakovka area), potentially reactivating the 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment's advance, to draw UAF reserves and fix forces, despite recent setbacks.
  • Kherson Direction: RF will consolidate control of Alekseevsky Island and the Antonovsky railway bridge, using these positions to enhance defensive posture along the Dnipro and potentially launch limited probing attacks or interdiction operations.
  • South Donetsk Axis: RF "Vostok" assault group will seek to reinforce and expand their newly occupied positions in the forest belt following the night assault, potentially with further localized offensive actions.
  • Kharkiv Oblast (Ambarnoye): RF will press its advantage against the surrounded UAF group near Ambarnoye, attempting to eliminate or capture these forces.
  • Vovchansk Axis: RF will consolidate control of the forests southwest of Vovchansk and maintain pressure on the city, aiming for further localized gains.
  • Siversk Axis: RF will maintain multi-directional pressure on Siversk, attempting to envelop UAF defensive positions and force a withdrawal or breakthrough from three sides. This will include launching battles for Zvanovka.
  • Orikhiv Axis: RF will maintain a strong defensive posture and continue to launch localized offensive operations to eliminate UAF sabotage and reconnaissance groups, consolidating gains in "grey zones" and further pushing back UAF.
  • Konstantinovka Axis: RF will likely exploit the claimed destruction of a UAF grouping in northern Konstantinovka to press further advances in the area.
  • Robotics Integration: RF will increasingly integrate its newly deployed "Kurier" and "Fagot" UGVs into assault operations on these main axes, particularly in urban or heavily fortified areas, to provide direct fire support, mine-laying, and reduce personnel risk.
  • FPV Drone Support: FPV drone operations will intensify across all active ground axes, providing real-time ISR, precision strikes against UAF personnel, logistics, engineering equipment, and counter-battery efforts. RF will likely increase FPV drone operations in central Kramatorsk and continue in Nikopol Raion. RF drone activity, as seen near Hryshyno, will continue to target UAF positions and movements, aiming to inflict "significant losses."
  • Air Support: RF tactical aviation will provide close air support using FAB guided aerial bombs to clear UAF defensive positions and support ground advances on the Lyman, Dnipropetrovsk, Pokrovsk, Sumy, Siversk, Vovchansk, Orikhiv, and Konstantinovka axes. Shelling of Zaporizhzhia Raion will likely continue.
  • Timeline: Ongoing, with high tempo for consolidation and exploitation in the next 24-48 hours.

Confidence: HIGH

• MLCOA 2 (Sustained Air/Missile Campaign Targeting Critical Infrastructure & Probing Homeland Defense): RF will maintain its multi-layered air and missile campaign.
  • UAV Swarms: Multiple waves of UAVs (30-60 per wave), including Shaheds, will target Ukrainian energy infrastructure, industrial zones, and logistical hubs, particularly in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy Oblasts, aiming to degrade resilience and civilian morale. New groups of strike UAVs are moving south in Kharkiv Oblast and towards Odesa from Mykolaiv Oblast, indicating potential for new strikes in these areas. Explosions in Odesa (RBC-Ukraine 23:29:44) suggest an ongoing strike. Strike UAVs will continue to target Kherson Oblast en route to Mykolaiv Oblast, and new reports indicate UAVs moving from Zaporizhzhia towards Kirovohrad Oblast.
  • KAB Strikes: Persistent KAB launches will continue against front-line and rear positions in Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts to support ground offensives and suppress UAF defenses.
  • Homeland Defense Probes: RF will continue probing NATO airspace with UAVs (potentially from Ukraine, as per new RF IO) and conducting reconnaissance UAV missions along border areas (Chernihiv, Sumy) and in the Black Sea towards Odesa. RF's strategic focus on the Arctic could imply expanded long-range ISR capabilities potentially relevant for this COA. Restrictions at Volgograd and Yaroslavl airports suggest a heightened awareness or response to potential UAF deep strikes. The damage from UAV debris in Volgograd Oblast indicates that RF homeland defense is still under pressure. The 42 UAVs claimed shot down overnight (TASS 04:09:14Z) indicate a continued high volume of UAF drone attacks on Russian territory, and RF's sustained air defense response.
  • Targeting Civilian Infrastructure/Personnel: RF will continue direct strikes against civilian infrastructure and personnel (e.g., communal brigades, civilian vehicles near Kramatorsk, Zaporizhzhia Raion) using UAVs and artillery, particularly in areas near the frontlines, as a means of terror or disruption.
  • Counter-UAF/EW: RF will intensify its counter-UAF and EW operations, targeting UAF heavy hexacopters, UAV control points, and Starlink antennas to degrade UAF ISR and C2 capabilities.
  • Exploiting Geomagnetic Disturbances: RF may attempt to exploit the expected prolonged geomagnetic storms to disrupt UAF C2 and navigation, potentially launching attacks during periods of maximum electromagnetic interference.
  • Military Space Support: Following the successful launch of a Soyuz-2.1b, RF will likely continue to integrate and leverage new or existing satellite capabilities for enhanced ISR and communications support to ongoing military operations.
  • Timeline: Daily, with varying intensity, for the foreseeable future.

Confidence: HIGH

• MLCOA 3 (Aggressive Hybrid Operations and Information Warfare with Escalated Narratives): RF will escalate its multi-domain influence operations.
  • "Nuclear Terrorism" Amplification: RF will aggressively promote the "UAF nuclear terrorism" narrative (Smolensk NPP, Kharkiv Neutron Source) through state media and diplomatic channels, aiming to discredit Ukraine internationally and justify potential future escalatory actions.
  • Kupiansk Infiltration Narrative: RF will heavily publicize the "Труба 3.0" infiltration into Kupiansk, portraying it as a major victory and a demonstration of RF ingenuity, aiming to demoralize UAF and boost domestic support. This will be reinforced by claims of fire control over railway stations.
  • Discrediting UAF Leadership/Fundraising: Intensified campaigns will accuse UAF leadership of corruption and claim widespread desertion (300-500k), targeting both internal Ukrainian morale and international support for Kyiv. RF will leverage alleged TCC brutality (Dnipro incident) to further demonize UAF mobilization efforts and authorities. The reported targeted mobilization in southern/eastern oblasts will also be exploited. RF will amplify any claims of UAF military setbacks, such as the claimed destruction of a UAF grouping in northern Konstantinovka, or the encirclement near Ambarnoye, to demoralize Ukrainian forces.
  • Exploiting Western Divisions: RF will continue to leverage any perceived divisions or gaffes within NATO and Western leadership (e.g., UN on Charlie Kirk, Trump's statements, Fitch downgrading France) to sow discord and undermine the alliance's resolve. The TASS report that the majority of UN countries did not sign a statement on RF's involvement in the UAV incident in Poland will be heavily amplified to undermine the perception of international unity against RF. RF will also leverage the potential Trump-Putin meeting in Malaysia as a diplomatic opportunity or IO tool. Trump's alleged "persecution" of Soros will be amplified to discredit Western figures. US authorities' belief that Kirk's killer acted alone will be used to reinforce internal US instability. RF will also leverage Fitch's downgrade of France to portray Western economic and political instability. Trump's renewed promise to "deal with Soros" (TASS 23:43:59) will be widely exploited to align with anti-Soros sentiment and reinforce narratives of internal US political instability. RF milbloggers are already amplifying Kirk's murder via "news headlines" (Colonelcassad 00:28:01) for this purpose. RF will also leverage the EU's potential tightening of visa policy for Russian citizens (TASS 04:27:01Z) to accuse the EU of Russophobia and discriminatory practices.
  • "West-2025" Show of Force: The "West-2025" exercises will be heavily propagandized as a demonstration of RF and Belarusian military might, aiming to deter NATO and reassure domestic audiences. The Arctic component of these exercises will be showcased to project RF's growing strategic influence and military capabilities in the region.
  • Targeting Mobilization: RF will amplify narratives about young Ukrainian men fleeing the country to evade mobilization, aiming to portray a crisis in UAF manpower. RF will also selectively report on UAF mobilization efforts in specific oblasts (Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson) to further this narrative.
  • Denial of War Crimes: RF will continue to deny or misattribute any attacks causing civilian casualties (e.g., Kramatorsk communal brigade/civilians, Zaporizhzhia Raion shelling), or use incidents like the Belgorod Pantsir malfunction to deflect blame. RF will likely attempt to suppress or reframe civilian testimonies of misconduct by RF soldiers in border regions (Colonelcassad 00:03:02).
  • Internal Stability and Governance: RF IO will continue to project stability and democratic process through messages from the CEC (TASS 21:33:34) and by attacking internal liberal media narratives (Операция Z 21:17:27). They will also use domestic legal actions (e.g., Zhiryutin confiscation, Timur Ivanov case) to project internal order and anti-corruption, while simultaneously leveraging US internal political narratives (e.g., Soros persecution). RF will also seek to discredit perceived internal threats, as evidenced by the "Aliyev's Club" narrative. TASS's use of a public health expert discussing vaccinations (TASS 02:21:01Z) is a subtle IO message projecting normalcy and state competence. RF will also use civilian events such as natural disasters in Kamchatka (TASS 03:18:04Z, РБК-Україна 03:22:59Z) to demonstrate state capacity for emergency response, potentially distracting from military failures.
  • Countering Sanctions: RF will attempt to downplay or discredit Western sanctions (e.g., US restrictions on suppliers, US call for G7 duties on Russian oil) as ineffective or politically motivated.
  • Diplomatic Leveraging: RF will continue to leverage existing international ties, such as with Syria (Ahmed ash-Shaara's statements), to project international support and counter isolation narratives. The UN's non-signing of a statement on Poland's accusations will be amplified to show a lack of international consensus against RF. RF's strategic focus on the Arctic, including resource and scientific development (Операция Z 23:40:04), will be used to project a long-term vision of global influence and power. Ukraine's statement at the UN (РБК-Україна 01:55:13) regarding where to expect enemy drones next suggests RF is perceived to be expanding its targets beyond current areas, which RF will deny.
  • Timeline: Continuous, adaptive, and highly responsive to events in the next 24-48 hours.

Confidence: HIGH

5.2. Most dangerous enemy courses of action (MDCOA)

MDCOA 1 (Rapid Breakthrough and Encirclement on Lyman/Konstantinovka, Dnipropetrovsk, Kupiansk, Siversk, or Kharkiv Axes with Massed Combined Arms): RF commits significant second-echelon forces (including newly delivered armor and UGVs) to achieve a rapid, deep breakthrough on one of the critical axes.

• Lyman-Konstantinovka Breakthrough: RF, leveraging gains at Kolodyazi and Kirovsk, executes a coordinated, multi-pronged mechanized assault (including UGVs, armored units like 90th Tank Division, and motorcycle assaults) aiming for a rapid envelopment or penetration towards Konstantinovka. Clearing operations around Torske and Kirovsk would rapidly transition to offensive action. This could compromise a significant portion of the UAF defensive line in Donetsk Oblast. The initiation of battles for Zvanovka suggests increased RF pressure here. RF will capitalize on its claimed destruction of a UAF grouping in northern Konstantinovka to press further.
• Dnipropetrovsk Encirclement: RF aggressively exploits the expanded Dnipropetrovsk salient, committing significant reserves (e.g., Vostok Grouping) to complete the encirclement of UAF forces in Velykomykhailivka, and potentially advancing rapidly towards a strategic objective deeper in Dnipropetropvsk Oblast.
• Kupiansk Urban Seizure: RF uses the "Труба 3.0" infiltration tactic to rapidly overwhelm UAF defenses in Kupiansk, leading to a swift seizure of the city and its key river crossings, enabling further exploitation westward or southward along the Oskil River. This could be supported by simultaneous conventional assaults to fix UAF defenses, and by leveraging fire control over key railway stations to prevent UAF reinforcement or extraction.
• Siversk Encirclement/Collapse: RF's three-pronged advance on Siversk intensifies, leading to a rapid encirclement of UAF forces in the town. Combined with heavy artillery and aviation support, this could force a costly UAF withdrawal or lead to significant losses.
• Kharkiv Oblast Envelopment: RF leverages the reported encirclement of a UAF group near Ambarnoye as a springboard for a broader envelopment operation in northern Kharkiv Oblast, aiming to cut off UAF forces or gain significant tactical territory. This could be supported by forces already pushing from Vovchansk.
• Orikhiv Defensive Consolidation and Limited Offensive: RF, having established a "deep defense" in Orikhiv and claiming to have pushed UAF back significantly, could launch a concerted, localized offensive leveraging combined arms to secure a critical tactical advantage or to seize key UAF defensive strongpoints, aiming to force a UAF withdrawal from this sector.
• Timeline: Within the next 24-72 hours, potentially timed to coincide with / exploit a perceived UAF weakness or distraction.

Confidence: MEDIUM

MDCOA 2 (Massive, Coordinated Multi-Domain Strike & Strategic Diversion): RF launches a massive, coordinated missile and drone strike against multiple high-value targets across Ukraine, including renewed strikes on Kyiv's administrative and government centers, DIB facilities in Western Ukraine, and simultaneous large-large-scale conventional ground operations on a secondary axis (e.g., Sumy/Chernihiv border, Kharkiv North) to draw UAF reserves.

• Air/Missile Focus: The strike package involves a higher proportion of precision-guided missiles (including Kinzhal, Iskander) alongside a massive drone swarm, aimed at overwhelming UAF air defenses and causing maximum disruption to C2, logistics, and critical energy/industrial infrastructure. This could include further long-range strikes from Arctic positions.
• Ground Diversion: This strike is accompanied by a renewed, large-scale RF ground offensive on the Sumy or Chernihiv axis, potentially from Belarusian territory or using forces from the "West-2025" exercises, designed to force UAF to redeploy critical assets away from the main efforts in Donbas or Dnipropetrovsk. The reported encirclement in Kharkiv Oblast could also be part of a larger diversionary effort.
• Hybrid Component: Concurrent, large-scale cyberattacks targeting Ukrainian government and military networks, potentially coupled with enhanced EW against UAF communications. This MDCOA could be exacerbated by the effects of the expected geomagnetic storms, which could create a "fog of war" for UAF. The recently launched Soyuz-2.1b satellite could enhance RF's ability to coordinate such a multi-domain strike by providing improved ISR or communications.
• Timeline: Unexpectedly, within the next 48-96 hours, possibly linked to the "West-2025" exercises or a major political event.

Confidence: MEDIUM

5.3. Timeline estimates and decision points

• Next 24-48 Hours:
  • RF Ground Consolidation: RF forces will prioritize securing and reinforcing newly gained positions on the Lyman (Kolodyazi, Kirovsk, Zvanovka, clearing operations near Torske and Kirovsk), Dnipropetrovsk (Novopetrovskoye, Novomykolaivka, Nikopol Raion), Kupiansk (infiltrated forces, railway stations under fire control), Vovchansk (forests southwest of city), Siversk (three-sided advance), South Donetsk (forest belt positions), Kharkiv (Ambarnoye encirclement), Orikhiv (consolidation of gains, deep defense), and Konstantinovka (following claimed destruction of UAF grouping) axes. Decision point for UAF: Commit immediate reserves to prevent further RF exploitation or tactical encirclement in these areas, particularly in Kupiansk, Velykomykhailivka, Siversk, and Konstantinovka, and to prevent further RF advances in Orikhiv.
  • RF UAV Strikes: Continued RF UAV activity in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with new groups moving south in Kharkiv and towards Odesa. Explosions in Odesa (RBC-Ukraine 23:29:44) require immediate BDA. Strike UAVs will continue from Kherson to Mykolaiv Oblasts, and from Zaporizhzhia towards Kirovohrad Oblast. Decision point for UAF: Maintain high alert for air defense, refine counter-UAF tactics, and prioritize protection of critical infrastructure and personnel (e.g., communal brigades).
  • RF IO Escalation: RF will aggressively push narratives of success (Kupiansk, Lyman, Dnipropetrovsk, Vovchansk, Siversk, Orikhiv, Konstantinovka, South Donetsk, Ambarnoye) and "UAF nuclear terrorism." They will also leverage alleged TCC brutality. Decision point for UAF: Implement proactive counter-IO to verify facts, highlight RF war crimes (including potential soldier misconduct in border regions, Zaporizhzhia Raion shelling), and frame Russian actions as escalatory and irresponsible. Specifically, counter the RF narrative around Kirk's murder (Colonelcassad 00:28:01) by providing factual information and exposing RF's intent to sow distrust. Leverage the condemnation of RF drone attack on Poland by almost 50 UN member states (РБК-Україна 00:15:16) to underscore RF's diplomatic isolation. Counter the narrative of expanding RF drone targets (РБК-Україна 01:55:13) by emphasizing UAF's robust air defense and the limited success of RF strikes. Counter RF claims of UAF setbacks, such as the destruction of a UAF grouping in Konstantinovka, with verified information.
  • Geomagnetic Storm Impact: Begin monitoring for early effects of geomagnetic storms on communications and navigation systems. Decision point for UAF: Implement pre-planned contingency measures for C2 and ISR degradation.
  • RF Homeland Restrictions: Monitor the duration and reason for airport restrictions in Volgograd and Yaroslavl. Decision point for UAF: Assess if these indicate successful UAF deep strikes or internal RF security issues.
  • RF Logistical Security: UAF should anticipate increased RF vigilance and countermeasures for protecting ammunition trains and other critical logistical assets, following the reported interdiction attempt.
  • Arctic Monitoring: Closely monitor the "West-2025" Arctic exercises for any unexpected deployments or escalation of activity.
• Next 48-72 Hours:
  • RF UGV Deployment Assessment: Initial operational assessment of RF "Kurier" and "Fagot" UGVs. Decision point for UAF: Rapidly develop and deploy counter-UGV capabilities and revise TTPs to mitigate this new threat.
  • Impact of Deep Strikes: Continued assessment of the operational and economic impact of UAF deep strikes on RF oil and port infrastructure. Decision point for UAF: Plan for further deep strike operations or assess shifts in RF logistical vulnerabilities.
  • "West-2025" Posturing: RF and Belarusian forces will continue large-scale exercises. Decision point for UAF: Monitor for any outward-facing aggressive posturing or deployments that indicate a shift from exercise to offensive operations, particularly along the northern border.

6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Immediate Counter-Infiltration Operations in Kupiansk:

   • Task: Deploy specialized UAF counter-infiltration units (e.g., SSO, dedicated infantry) with priority ISR support (drone, HUMINT) to immediately locate, isolate, and neutralize RF forces infiltrated into Kupiansk via the "Труба 3.0" pipeline. Immediately reinforce local forces in Kupiansk (e.g., 72nd Brigade) with necessary communication retranslators and anti-infiltration specialists. Simultaneously, assess the impact of RF fire control over railway stations and establish alternative logistical routes.
   • Action: Rapidly conduct a detailed engineering assessment of the Oskil River gas pipeline system to identify all potential infiltration points, seal breaches, and develop permanent, hardened countermeasures against this tactic.
   • Justification: This represents a highly adaptive and dangerous RF tactic that bypasses conventional defenses and directly threatens UAF logistical lines. Failure to rapidly neutralize this threat could lead to a significant UAF setback and loss of Kupiansk.
   • Confidence: HIGH

2. Reinforce and Stabilize Key Offensive Axes (Lyman, Dnipropetrovsk, Siversk, South Donetsk, Kharkiv Ambarnoye, Vovchansk, Orikhiv, Konstantinovka):

   • Task: Immediately allocate operational reserves (infantry, artillery, ATGM teams, specialized forest warfare units) to critical sectors on the Lyman (including clearing operations near Torske and Kirovsk), Dnipropetrovsk (including Nikopol Raion), Siversk (including Zvanovka), South Donetsk (forest belt), Kharkiv (Ambarnoye encirclement), Vovchansk (forests southwest of city), Orikhiv, and Konstantinovka axes. Focus on stabilizing threatened UAF positions, preventing further RF breakthroughs or encirclement attempts (e.g., Velykomykhailivka, Siversk, Ambarnoye), and counter-attacking where feasible. Prioritize precision fires against RF concentrations and logistical routes supporting these advances.
   • Action: Implement active reconnaissance-by-force operations to verify RF claims of gains (Kolodyazi, Kirovsk, Novopetrovskoye, Novomykolaivka, forests southwest of Vovchansk, Zvanovka, South Donetsk forest positions) and RF force composition/immediate exploitation objectives, including the Orikhiv direction, and verify the claimed destruction of a UAF grouping in northern Konstantinovka. For Ambarnoye, immediately assess the surrounded UAF group's strength, supply, and a viable extraction or reinforcement plan.
   • Justification: These axes represent RF's most significant ground advances and/or consolidated defensive positions in the last 24 hours. Failure to counter will cede critical territory and operational initiative.
   • Confidence: HIGH

3. Expedited Counter-UGV Doctrine and Training:

   • Task: Rapidly develop and disseminate comprehensive TTPs for countering RF's new "Kurier" and "Fagot" UGVs.
   • Action: Prioritize training for frontline units on visual and thermal detection, effective engagement ranges for anti-material rifles, dedicated FPV drone hunter-killer teams, and localized EW jamming techniques against UGV control signals. Incorporate UGV threats into all tactical exercises.
   • Justification: The deployment of UGVs is a significant technological leap for RF ground forces, posing a direct threat to UAF personnel and equipment. Proactive countermeasures are essential.
   • Confidence: HIGH

4. Enhanced Civilian Protection and Accountability for War Crimes:

   • Task: Immediately launch a full investigation and documentation of the alleged RF drone strike on a communal brigade and civilians near Kramatorsk, the explosions in Odesa, the civilian testimony of robbery and violence by Russian soldiers in Sudzha, Kursk Oblast, the alleged beating of a man by TCC officers in Dnipro, and the shelling incidents in Zaporizhzhia Raion and Nikopol Raion.
   • Action: Secure evidence (BDA, witness testimonies, drone footage) and leverage international legal mechanisms (ICC, UN) to hold RF accountable. Concurrently, bolster air defense assets and personnel protection measures in urban areas near frontlines and Odesa to mitigate future civilian casualties. Address the TCC incident with transparency and internal accountability to maintain public trust.
   • Justification: Direct targeting of civilian infrastructure maintenance personnel, civilians, and misconduct by RF soldiers and potential misconduct by UAF TCC personnel are grave concerns. Proactive documentation, international pressure, and internal accountability are critical for both justice and counter-IO, and for maintaining public trust.
   • Confidence: HIGH

5. Proactive Information Environment Management:

   • Task: Launch a coordinated STRATCOM campaign to counter RF's "Труба 3.0" Kupiansk narrative, "nuclear terrorism" claims, RF's narrative on Siversk, Orikhiv, and the perceived "TCC brutality." Highlight RF's losses and UAF resilience.
   • Action: Publicize documented evidence of RF infiltration tactics to highlight RF's disregard for international law and infrastructure. Reiterate UAF's commitment to responsible military conduct and contrast it with RF's reckless actions (e.g., Belgorod Pantsir incident, soldier misconduct). Emphasize the strategic impact of UAF deep strikes on RF logistical and financial capabilities. Use the urgent appeal for "Lyuti" pilots (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 19:14:55) and the Polish volunteer video (Оперативний ЗСУ 21:29:41) to galvanize international support for UAF air defense and drone capabilities. Actively monitor and counter RF's leveraging of US internal politics (Trump/Soros, Kirk assassination) and potential diplomatic events (Trump/Putin meeting) by exposing RF's intent to sow discord. Actively counter RF's narrative on the UN not signing the statement on Poland's drone incident by emphasizing the need for multilateral action and accountability. Leverage the condemnation of RF's drone attack on Poland by almost 50 UN member states (РБК-Україна 00:15:16) to underscore RF's diplomatic isolation. Pre-emptively address any implications for French aid from Fitch's downgrade (TASS 22:59:42). Counter RF claims of UAF losses in Hryshyno with verified information or by highlighting RF's use of drones for reconnaissance and targeting, not necessarily confirmed UAF destruction. Counter RF's internal IO regarding the "Aliyev's Club" by highlighting RF's attempts to create internal divisions. Counter RF's Arctic narrative by highlighting environmental impacts or the global implications of militarization. Proactively address the TCC incident in Dnipro with transparency and a clear statement of internal investigation, aiming to minimize RF's ability to exploit it for disinformation regarding UAF mobilization. Counter RF narratives about selective mobilization from southern/eastern oblasts (TASS 00:46:01) by providing factual data and contextualizing UAF manpower needs. Address Ukraine's UN statement regarding future drone targets by emphasizing UAF vigilance and RF's reckless targeting. Counter RF claims of UAF groupings destroyed in Konstantinovka, and highlight RF casualties from South Donetsk night assaults if verifiable.
   • Justification: RF is actively shaping narratives to gain strategic advantage and demonize Ukraine. Proactive, evidence-based counter-narratives and transparency are essential to maintain international support and domestic morale.
   • Confidence: HIGH

6. Mitigate Geomagnetic Storm Impact on C2/ISR:

   • Task: Immediately brief all C2 and ISR units on the impending prolonged geomagnetic storms.
   • Action: Advise on the potential for satellite communications degradation, GPS outages, and increased electronic noise. Implement redundant communication protocols (e.g., hardened fiber optic, encrypted radio alternatives), pre-positioning of hardened navigation devices, and reliance on map-based navigation. Prioritize collection on RF systems' resilience to such events.
   • Justification: Geomagnetic storms can severely impact electronic systems, potentially creating significant operational vulnerabilities. Proactive mitigation is essential to maintain C2 and ISR effectiveness.
   • Confidence: MEDIUM

7. Monitor RF Space and Arctic Capabilities:

   • Task: Closely monitor all intelligence on RF space launches, particularly the "Soyuz-2.1b" launch, and rapidly assess any new or enhanced ISR, communication, or navigation capabilities. Simultaneously, maintain constant vigilance on RF military activities in the Arctic, specifically the "West-2025" exercises involving Bastion complexes and Oniks missiles.
   • Action: Analyze potential impacts on RF's ability to track UAF movements, guide precision strikes, or disrupt UAF satellite communications. Develop countermeasures for any identified new threats in the space domain. Assess the strategic implications of RF's Arctic missile strike capabilities and their potential application in the Ukrainian theater or against NATO.
   • Justification: RF's continued military space launches and advanced Arctic operations indicate a commitment to enhancing capabilities in these domains. Understanding and countering these capabilities are critical to maintaining UAF operational advantage and assessing broader strategic threats.
   • Confidence: HIGH

//END REPORT//