Archived operational intelligence briefing
RF forces maintain multi-axis pressure, with an emphasis on the Pokrovsk axis where urban combat continues in Muravka and Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). RF forces of the "Vostok" Grouping have "liberated" Sosnovka and Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, aiming to enhance encirclement of a UAF grouping in Velykomykhailivka. Combat is reported south of Stepnohirsk with active RF aviation support. On the Lyman axis, RF claims to be assaulting Zarechnoye and reports activity near Kolodyazi. Colonelcassad reports RF forces have established control over Kolodyazi and are advancing on the Krasny Liman direction. TASS further reports RF troops have "practically dislodged" UAF from Kirovsk on the Krasny Liman direction, with UAF suffering heavy losses, which, if true, would significantly consolidate RF control over this sector. Intense combat continues near Krasny Liman, DPR, with the RF 103rd Regiment advancing towards Konstantinovka, now reportedly 7 km from the city. On the Siverske direction, RF forces claim control of approximately 50% of Pereyizne and advances in the Kremensky forests, taking control of approximately 3 km of the administrative border. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports the 88th Assault Brigade has successfully assaulted and captured an enemy stronghold near Fedorovka on the Siverske direction, using 122mm artillery. RF UAVs are establishing "fire control" over UAF logistical routes near Krasny Liman and Izium-Barvinkove, and claim control of 1.5 km of a supply route in Kupyansk. RF claims "liberation" of Zelenyi Hai and fighting for Torske, indicating sustained offensive operations on the Lyman direction. RF forces have "expelled the enemy from Katerynivka" and continue to advance in the Konstantinovka direction, near Kleban-Byk and Pleshcheyevka, maintaining pressure on this critical UAF defensive axis. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) reports RF forces are advancing towards Konstantinovka, breaking through enemy defenses near Predtechino and Pleshcheyevka, confirming continued pressure on the Konstantinovka axis. Offensive action near Chasiv Yar involves airborne units engaging enemy infantry. Рыбарь (RF milblogger) provides a tactical analysis video documenting RF offensive operations and territorial gains in the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd agglomeration area between 24 AUG and 10 SEP 25, confirming sustained pressure and advances. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" (UAF milblogger) claims Ukrainian Defense Forces (СОУ) have "cleared and liberated" the villages of Shakhove and Volodymyrivka on the Dobropillya direction. This, if verified, represents a UAF tactical success and potentially reverses some RF gains. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" (RF milblogger) projects the Special Military Operation (SVO) will conclude in 2027 with the capture of Odesa and Mykolaiv, indicating long-term RF strategic aspirations. TASS reports Russian forces have "practically dislodged" UAF from the settlement of Novomykolaivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, according to Russian security forces. This is a new and significant claim, indicating further RF advances and expansion of the Dnipropetrovsk salient. "Z комитет + карта СВО" shares multiple map images showing advances around Velykomykhailivka and Novoivanivka, reinforcing RF claims of continued pressure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Novopavlivka direction. DeepState map update indicates changes, requiring further analysis for specifics. "Два майора" (RF milblogger) and "Сливочный каприз" (RF milblogger) reinforce claims of RF capture of Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, providing video evidence of artillery strikes and claimed M-777 destruction, with "Vostok" Grouping involved. "Сливочный каприз" shares video showing drone footage of a settlement under artillery bombardment (likely Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk area, identified by caption 12.09.25 Красноармейска - Октябрьское(Шахово)), and now also Krasnoarmeysk - Vladimirovka (12.09.25). "Воин DV" (RF milblogger) shares drone footage of operators from the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, "Vostok" Grouping, engaged in active military activity targeting a dark-colored vehicle and what appears to be a motorcycle or smaller vehicle, followed by thermal imaging of multiple targets, explosions, and muzzle flashes, with individuals (likely soldiers) moving in the environment. This suggests active RF FPV drone operations and engagement of UAF light vehicles/personnel. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF milblogger) shares video depicting a coordinated assault on enemy trench positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction by SSO snipers, involving grenades and small arms fire in close-quarters combat, highlighting active UAF ground engagements. New video from БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows Ukrainian soldiers from the '3rd Army Corps' in a rural environment conducting tactical movements, RPG use, and interaction with captured individuals, indicating active offensive/clearing operations. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) also shows a video from Bryansk-Chernihiv direction where "border guards" are destroying UAF equipment, infantry, and positions, including mortar positions, a fuel station, and communications antenna. This indicates active RF operations against UAF on border areas. Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF milblogger) reports that the "Shkval" battalion of the "Skelya" regiment conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF milblogger) reports the appearance of Russian FPV drones in the central part of Kramatorsk. Военкор Котенок (RF milblogger) shares aerial footage of Vovchansk showing widespread destruction and smoke plumes, attributed to combat on the Kharkiv direction. "Рыбарь" shares a map detailing RF forces "taking the East," specifically highlighting active ground combat on the eastern front (Confidence: HIGH). "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares a photo of RF airborne troops on the Konstantinovka direction, indicating continued RF pressure in this sector (Confidence: HIGH). "Воин DV" shares drone footage displaying aerial reconnaissance over urban and rural environments, showing military vehicles (trucks, ATV) with camouflage/protective measures, interspersed with Russian propaganda emblems and slogans. (Confidence: HIGH)
GSU reports indicate a significant concentration of RF forces and 130 combat engagements over the past 24 hours on the Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka, and Shakhtarske directions, with UAF repelling numerous attacks. RF is attempting to advance near Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, and claims to have repelled a UAF counterattack on the left bank of the Vovcha River, occupying four technical buildings. RF Special Forces (14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, "Sida" detachment of AHMAT, "Anvar" detachment) are actively supporting ground assaults on the South Donetsk direction and conducting precision strikes against UAF artillery on the Sumy direction, with "Anvar" operating in buffer zones along the Kharkiv and Chernihiv borders. RF is reportedly bringing up reserves to Vovchansk. The Kherson-Mykolaiv highway is claimed to be under RF fire control. UAF forces successfully destroyed a bridge over the Siverskyi Donets river near Nova Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, Russia, using FPV drones and pre-planted mines, disrupting RF logistical movement. Widespread destruction in Vovchansk confirms heavy combat and significant damage. RF forces continue FPV drone operations targeting UAF logistics and personnel across multiple sectors. Drone footage indicates RF strikes on trenches, a command post, and a communications tower on the Rubtsovsk direction, with suggested electronic warfare activity against "STARLINK." RF forces are actively countering UAF attempts to regain Udachnoye, displaying a presence in previously contested structures. RF "Молния-2" UAVs reportedly struck a UAF temporary deployment point (PVD) in Sumy Oblast. RF UAV operators are disrupting UAF rotations in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF reports one civilian killed in Polohy Raion due to enemy attacks. Oleg Sinegubov, Governor of Kharkiv Oblast, reports 18 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were subjected to enemy attacks over the past day, confirming widespread and persistent RF pressure in the region. "Воин DV" (RF milblogger) shares thermal drone footage of 35th Army Special Forces (Vostok Grouping) targeting UAF personnel with FPV drones and grenade drops in the Polohy direction, indicating continued RF FPV drone effectiveness and localized ground pressure. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" (RF milblogger) shares video of army aviation operations in Kharkiv Oblast, Iziumskyi district, near Borovska Andriyivka, targeting areas in support of the 1st Tank Army's assault units, indicating concentrated RF air support for ground advances in this sector. "Народная милиция ДНР" shares video of RF 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (ORB) destroying UAF communications antenna/Starlink in a rural area, confirming continued RF counter-C2 efforts. Liveuamap Source reports on daily clashes across South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv), Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, and Kherson directions, with UAF repelling numerous attacks, underscoring the widespread nature of combat. Colonelcassad reports FPV drone operators from "Sparta" battalion, 51st Guards Combined Arms Army, destroyed two UAF UAV control points and a communication antenna near Dimitrov. This is a significant claim regarding counter-UAF C2. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that during raid actions by "Morok" assault battalion, 225th Separate Assault Regiment, in the rear of the RF 810th Brigade, remote mining by "Pentagon" pilots stopped an RF attempt to intercept UAF. This suggests effective UAF counter-interdiction and FPV drone support for ground operations. Oleg Sinegubov, Governor of Kharkiv Oblast, reports RF attacked a civilian vehicle with a drone in Shevchenkivska community, confirming continued RF targeting of civilian transport. MoD Russia reports 215th Combined Arms Army's motorised rifle regiment (Zapad Group of Forces) conducting drills with AGS-17 Plamya at a training ground in the SVO zone, indicating continued RF combat training and the importance of AGS-17. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) reports "Работайте братья" showing "our little birds" (drones) invading Hryshyno, suggesting active RF drone operations in that area (likely Pokrovsk axis). "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares a thermal drone video depicting a Russian soldier attempting to hide from a UAF drone operator (79th Airmobile Brigade), indicating active UAF drone hunter-killer operations and highlighting RF vulnerability. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shares thermal imaging drone footage of a convoy attacked on a dirt road, which the caption attributes to "Anvar" special forces hunting UAF equipment and militants, supporting the Sumy offensive. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of Ukrainian snipers eliminating six Russian assault troops on the Toretsk front, Donetsk Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF milblogger) reports that RF is increasingly using FPV "Zhduny" (waiting/ambush drones) in combat, with the video showing a Ukrainian soldier engaging a stationary target. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts videos showcasing new Russian "Kurier" (Courier) unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) with machine guns and mine-laying capabilities, and 'Fagot' remote-controlled robotic platforms with autocannons and mine-laying systems, indicating advanced robotic combat deployments. Colonelcassad reports on a destroyed dark-colored vehicle and a damaged two-story building (possibly a temporary deployment point, PVD) in Sumy Oblast, with three units of enemy (UAF) automotive equipment destroyed, attributed to Russian operators. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares video of a captured hexacopter "Baba Yaga" being operated by RF forces against its former owners, showcasing adaptive use of captured UAF equipment. Kadyrov_95 shares video footage of the 78th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Sever-Akhmat" conducting artillery strikes on enemy positions, demonstrating active combat operations. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares FPV drone footage showing a truck on a dirt road in a wooded area, indicating active RF reconnaissance and targeting operations in the Iziumskyi district of Kharkiv Oblast. "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares video showing a UAF MiG-29 conducting an aerial attack, described as "master class on dismantling the invaders' battalion headquarters" in Zaporizhzhia (Confidence: MEDIUM). "STERNENKO" shares drone footage indicating successful strikes by the 100th Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBr) against an RF tank, armored fighting vehicle (BBBM), and personnel. The video also shows extensive damage to urban areas. (Confidence: HIGH) MoD Russia shares a video of Russian military personnel preparing and deploying a multi-rotor drone in a dry, grassy field, suggesting reconnaissance or surveillance. (Confidence: HIGH) MoD Russia reports that in Dnepropetrovsk region, operators of the Vostok Group's UAVs successfully overwhelmed control channels of an enemy heavy hexacopter. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports RF forces, along with the Antonovsky railway bridge over the Dnipro, have taken control of Alekseevsky Island. This indicates an RF advance in the Kherson direction, potentially securing key positions on the Dnipro River. (Confidence: MEDIUM) NEW: "Воин DV" shares archive footage of FPV drone operations on the South Donetsk direction, showing "Vostok" Grouping operators destroying engineering equipment and defensive positions. This reinforces RF's persistent use of FPV drones for tactical advantage. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: RF milbloggers (Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z, Colonelcassad) are widely reporting that RF forces have penetrated Kupiansk via gas pipes ("Труба 3.0" tactic), describing a "whole underground artery" from Perviy Liman, used for moving assault groups on electric scooters and carts, with the journey taking 4 days. This suggests a highly adaptive and covert infiltration method, with a significant number of troops already dispersed in Kupiansk. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UAF milblogger) reports RF struck a communal brigade in Kramatorsk, implying RF targeting of civilian infrastructure maintenance personnel. (Confidence: MEDIUM) NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports RF killed civilians near Kramatorsk using a "Molniya" UAV. The accompanying video shows a car hit by an explosive strike on a dirt road. This is a grave allegation of a war crime. (Confidence: HIGH)
Deep strikes persist on Ukrainian energy, industrial, and civilian infrastructure across 15 oblasts. Confirmed damage to the Sumy Oblast Administration (OVA) building, Ukrainian Government Headquarters in Kyiv, Sokil ice arena, Cabinet of Ministers building, and the Trypilska TPP. The death toll from the aviation bomb strike on Yarova, Donetsk Oblast, has risen to 25. Civilian casualties and damage from combined missile and drone attacks are confirmed in Vinnytsia (31 injured), Khmelnytskyi (sewing factory destroyed, 3 injured), Zhytomyr (1 killed, 5 injured), and Kramatorsk (central square, residential areas, market hit by drones). An energy object in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast has been hit by drones. Zaporizhzhia suffered a drone attack on a residential building, injuring two civilians, with four additional wounded reported from attacks on Prymorske and Zaporizhzhia. The 68-year-old man severely injured in a drone strike on Prymorske yesterday has died in hospital. Mykolaiv has experienced drone threats and explosions. Berdychiv (Zhytomyr Oblast) was hit by missile strikes. An enemy strike on an educational institution and the Holy Resurrection Cathedral in Sumy is confirmed. A "Shahed" drone hit one of Chernihiv's enterprises, causing a fire. Strikes on Nikopol region continued all day, affecting Nikopol, Marhanets, Pokrovsk, Myrove, and Chervonohryhorivka communities with artillery and drones. Acting Mayor of Sumy, Artem Kobzar, confirms two drone strikes on a non-residential building in Sumy, with casualty information being clarified. RBC-Ukraine reports RF struck a "promyslova zona" (industrial zone) on the outskirts of Sumy with drones. Explosions and a significant fire are reported at an oil depot in Smolensk Oblast and Primorsk port in Leningrad Oblast, attributed to UAF drone attacks. RBC-Ukraine reports an update, confirming one security guard killed under the rubble in Sumy. RBC-Ukraine reports RF launched missiles at Sumy Oblast, causing fatalities and destruction in residential areas, confirming continued RF missile targeting of civilian populations. RBC-Ukraine reports 2 people killed and 5 houses destroyed in a village in Sumy Oblast due to RF strike. ASTRA reports three people killed after a Russian attack in Sumy Oblast, as confirmed by local authorities. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports two people killed and five injured in the village of Bytytsia, Sumy Oblast, as a result of a missile strike, confirming the ASTRA report and specifying the location. STERNENKO (UAF milblogger) and Sumy Oblast Military Administration (OVA) confirm one person killed in Sumy due to RF drone strike this morning. "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" reports "Another tragedy in Nikopol region, caused by enemy terror." The accompanying images, however, do not show military targets or direct damage, but rather a neglected civilian vehicle. This implies an ongoing, if less severe, impact on civilian life from RF actions, though the immediate assessment of the photos indicates no direct military significance. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares video of an alleged UAV strike on a Transneft oil pumping station "Vtorovo" in Vladimir Oblast, Russia, if verified, this represents a significant expansion of UAF deep strike range and target type. Colonelcassad reports FAB guided aerial bomb strikes on UAF positions in Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, indicating continued RF use of KABs on rear areas. TASS reports 1 killed, 6 wounded in Kherson Oblast due to UAF shelling, which RF will use for IO. ASTRA reports the woman killed in Belgorod this morning died from the impact of a "Pantsir" air defense missile booster, confirming RF air defense malfunction/collateral damage and contradicting earlier RF claims. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports an "explosive morning" in Leningrad Oblast, with videos of explosions, reinforcing previous UAF deep strike claims. Colonelcassad provides a "chronicle of strikes on Ukraine" for 11-12 September, indicating ongoing RF analysis and reporting of its own strike activities. "Alex Parker Returns" shares video of an alleged strike on a fuel object in Vladimir Oblast, further supporting the claim of a UAF deep strike on a Transneft oil pumping station and commenting on the lack of RF air defense. "Север.Реалии" reports that the woman killed in Belgorod was killed by a "Pantsir" air defense missile booster, reaffirming the ASTRA report. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's video highlights restoration work on energy facilities, construction of protective structures for transformers, and winter preparations in Zaporizhzhia, following enemy attacks. TASS reports a UAF drone attacked the Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant, hitting ancillary facilities and breaking several windows, but not affecting safety. Colonelcassad reports a UAF drone attack on the Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) and "Военкор Котенок" also amplify the claim of UAF attacking the Smolensk NPP, framing it as "nuclear terrorism." ASTRA, citing SBU sources, confirms the strike on Primorsk oil loading port. Росатом (RF State Nuclear Energy Corporation) reports no damage to critical infrastructure at the Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant, only minor damage to a fence and an administrative building from a Ukrainian drone. This contradicts previous reports of ancillary facilities being hit, reducing the scope of potential damage and RF's previous claims of "nuclear terrorism" framing. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UAF milblogger) provides an analysis of the alleged UAF UAV strike on the Transneft oil pumping station "Vtorovo," concluding that a "Lyutyy" UAV hit a technological overpass with pipelines, signal, and power cables. This provides specific BDA and target information, increasing the confidence in the success and impact of the strike. ASTRA reports that two berths and an oil tanker were damaged in the Primorsk oil loading port after a UAV attack, providing additional BDA for the UAF deep strike. TASS reports the body of a third deceased person was discovered on Elbrus after a cable car accident, a civilian incident (Confidence: HIGH). TASS reports one teenager died and two were injured in a pit bike collision with a truck in Stavropol, a civilian incident (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares a video which visually represents an animated scheme of strikes on the territory of Ukraine between September 11-12, 2025. This indicates a summary of recent RF strike operations (Confidence: HIGH). The new messages from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (18:07:31, 18:07:31) show videos of a large industrial facility engulfed in flames and dark smoke. The timestamp and description suggest this may be additional BDA from a UAF deep strike, potentially in the Leningrad or Smolensk Oblasts as previously reported, or a new target. The scale of the fire indicates a significant incident.
Reports indicate at least eight explosions in occupied Donetsk, with TASS claiming UAF missile attacks repelled. Mash on Donbas reports power outages in Kyivskyi district of Donetsk and damaged windows in a traumatology hospital and nearby residential buildings, with a new video claiming a multi-apartment building in Donetsk was hit, "presumably by NATO MLRS." UAF FPV drones reportedly attacked a civilian vehicle near Polyana, Starodubsky Municipal District, Belgorod Oblast, Russia. ASTRA reports 6 people were injured in attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Belgorod Oblast, with a Pyaterochka supermarket among the affected targets. An ammunition depot in occupied Luhansk is also reported to be exploding due to UAF drone strikes. An attack by over 30 UAVs was repelled in three municipalities of Rostov Oblast, causing damage to a private house and two cars, but no casualties. A massive drone attack was launched on Leningrad Oblast overnight, with a fire reported on a vessel in Primorsk port, which has since been extinguished. ASTRA reports a fire on a pumping station in Primorsk was also extinguished, without casualties. TASS reports one person killed and 24 injured over two days in Belgorod Oblast from UAF attacks. Russian MoD claims to have shot down 221 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions overnight, with 9 of them over the Moscow region. Russian Governor Gladkov (Belgorod Oblast) reports 1 killed, 24 injured in Belgorod Oblast over two days from UAF attacks. Bryansk Oblast Governor reports UAF strikes on a passenger minibus, injuring 5 people, including 2 "Bars-Bryansk" fighters. WarGonzo further clarifies seven people wounded in a mass drone attack on Bryansk Oblast. Mash on Donbas reports a large traffic jam towards Khartsyzk due to an accident, with a military-style truck present, potentially indicating local logistical disruption or increased security measures for RF forces. Поддубный (RF milblogger) reports two people killed in Belgorod Oblast due to UAF drone attacks over the past three days, specifically mentioning a woman killed this morning in Belgorod city, and overall 24 injured, reiterating and amplifying previous reports of civilian casualties. ASTRA reports the mayor of Belgorod confirms a woman killed by a UAF strike in Belgorod. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (UAF milblogger) shares graphic video footage depicting the aftermath of what appears to be an artillery strike in a rural area, showing multiple deceased and dismembered individuals. The context implies high-casualty combat or indiscriminate targeting of personnel, further underscoring the brutality of the conflict. RBC-Ukraine reports that SBU drones have hit the Primorsk port, leading to suspension of oil shipments. This is a significant claim regarding the impact on RF energy exports. Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF milblogger) reports a shootout with two fatalities occurred in an auto service office in Lviv Oblast, confirming an internal security incident. Басурин о главном (RF milblogger) shares a map depicting alleged Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian regions outside the SVO zone, claiming "terrorist war against civilians." Maria Zakharova (RF MFA spokesperson) confirms RF's narrative of Ukrainian "terrorist war" against Russian civilians, citing specific incidents in Belgorod, Bryansk, Moscow, and Voronezh regions, as well as alleged shelling in DPR/LPR. RBC-Україна reports on the possibility of a nuclear accident at the "Neutron Source" facility in Kharkiv due to RF strikes. Mash on Donbas reports that a house in Makeyevka, DPR, previously damaged, has now been declared unsafe. TASS reports two people, a married couple, were killed in a cable car accident on Elbrus, in Russia, a civilian incident.
UAV activity remains extremely high. UAF Air Force reports 62 of 66 enemy UAV targets were shot down/suppressed overnight. Groups of enemy UAVs are entering southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast from Temporarily Occupied Territories (TOT), course - north/northwest, and additional KABs are launched on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. RF claims destruction of 225 Ukrainian UAVs, one Neptune guided missile, and three HIMARS MLRS rockets over the past day. RF reconnaissance UAVs are active in the Black Sea towards Odesa and in Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts. RF drones are confirmed active across central, western, and northern Ukraine. UAF Air Force reports guided aerial bombs launched on Donetsk Oblast and Sumy Oblast. A RF kamikaze drone "Upyr" was reported engaging a UAF interceptor drone near Prykolotne, Kharkiv. UAF 'Lazar' unit utilized FPV drones to destroy a bridge near Nova Tavolzhanka. A Ukrainian "Yozhka" drone was reportedly shot down near Lyman. Reconnaissance UAVs are reported in central Chernihiv Oblast. A captured Ukrainian reconnaissance drone ("Shark") was showcased, claimed to be destroyed by RF "Fever" fighters. UAF thermal imaging drone video shows a series of artillery strikes impacting Russian military positions in Kharkiv direction. RF drone footage showcases identification and engagement of various enemy assets including a pickup truck, a Leopard-1 tank, artillery, an unknown vehicle, and a 'BABA-YAGA' drone. UAF General Staff reports RF combat losses over the last 24 hours include 890 personnel. UAF General Staff reports 890 RF personnel eliminated over the past 24 hours (Sept 11-12). UAF General Staff provides a tactical map analysis of enemy failed attempts to advance. RF milblogger Colonelcassad presents video of FPV drone operations targeting UAF transport in forest belts of Chernihiv Oblast. Ukrainian Defense Forces (DSHV) share video of RF "motorcycle assaults," depicting both RF tactics and UAF counter-engagement. UAF Air Force reports 33 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed, indicating continued air defense effectiveness against persistent RF drone attacks. RBC-Ukraine reports RF launched 40 drones overnight, including 20 Shaheds, with 33 shot down. RF milblogger Colonelcassad presents video evidence of RF snipers successfully downing Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" heavy strike drones on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. UAF 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" shares video of new advanced UAVs being deployed. Colonelcassad reports 221 Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted and destroyed by RF air defense overnight. This is a significant claim, almost matching the previous RF MOD claim. ASTRA reports the Ukrainian Air Force states Russia attacked with 40 drones overnight. UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity in northern Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, indicating continued ISR pressure on the northern border. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports air strike warnings for Zaporizhzhia, indicating continued aerial threat. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares multiple videos depicting night-time explosions and missile trails, including an alleged UAV strike on Primorsk Port and a significant explosion in an urban/industrial area, reinforcing UAF deep strike claims. "Повітряні Сиили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports new reconnaissance UAV activity on the north of Chernihiv and east of Sumy Oblasts, indicating persistent RF ISR. Kotsnews reports RF is testing a "heavy drone evading EW," potentially indicating new RF drone development. "Два майора" shares an image of an alleged Ukrainian drone payload, implying UAF drone attacks. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports no information on destruction or casualties at 101, 102, 103, regarding current air raid activity in Zaporizhzhia. This confirms ongoing vigilance but no confirmed impact yet. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shares video titled "Работайте братья" depicting RF drone operations, indicating active deployment of UAVs. Kotsnews shares drone footage of an artillery impact, showing a soldier moving through smoky terrain, underscoring ongoing combat. "Два майора" shares video of a Russian exhibition of UAVs and counter-drone technologies ("Дронница"), suggesting a significant investment in developing drone capabilities. MoD Russia reports that from 6 to 12 September, RF conducted one massive and six group strikes against Ukrainian defense industry, transport, and energy infrastructure, military airfields, and depots. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares new video footage from a drone's perspective, showing active combat operations with explosions and destruction of military vehicles in wooded and open areas, indicating continued RF drone surveillance and targeting. STERNENKO (UAF milblogger) reports 5 more enemy UAVs shot down, sharing drone footage of a small, white, fixed-wing UAV ("SKY RUSORIZ") flying over a rural area, indicating ongoing UAF counter-UAV efforts and potential fundraising for this project. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports a threat of aviation munition use in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykove district). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a strike UAV in northern Kherson Oblast moving southwest. Colonelcassad reports a hexacopter "Baba Yaga" was shot down by "Viking" operators with one precise strike, showing continued RF counter-UAV efforts. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a threat of aviation munitions use for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. "Военкор Котенок" shares photo of wreckage of a Ukrainian Su-27, claimed to be shot down yesterday in Zaporizhzhia (Confidence: HIGH). "Военкор Котенок" provides an immediate assessment of the wreckage (Confidence: HIGH). "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the air raid alert has been lifted for Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Confidence: HIGH). MoD Russia shares a video of Russian military personnel preparing and deploying a multi-rotor drone in a dry, grassy field, suggesting reconnaissance or surveillance. (Confidence: HIGH) MoD Russia reports that in Dnepropetrovsk region, operators of the Vostok Group's UAVs successfully overwhelmed control channels of an enemy heavy hexacopter. (Confidence: HIGH) Підрозділ Shadow (UAF milblogger) shares video showing drone footage of Ukrainian forces engaged in combat operations against Russian soldiers in trench positions, with an explosion visible near the trench, indicating active engagements and UAF drone reconnaissance/targeting (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares an animated scheme of strikes on the territory of Ukraine between September 11-12, 2025, detailing Geran and UMPK (guided aerial bombs) targeting Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. This provides a clear overview of RF's recent air/missile activity (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAVs in southern Kharkiv Oblast moving west/south (18:12:23), indicating continued RF drone activity in the region. РБК-Україна shares an updated map of air raid alerts in Ukraine (18:14:54), indicating ongoing aerial threats in various regions. NEW: STERNENKO (UAF milblogger) reports on "Drone safety" in several Russian oblasts (Rostov, Smolensk, Kaluga, Voronezh, Saratov, Tambov, Volgograd, Belgorod, Bryansk, Kuban, and occupied Crimea), implying UAF drone activity or threats in these areas. (Confidence: MEDIUM) NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast moving westward. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: РБК-Україна shares an updated map of enemy drone movements, indicating ongoing aerial threats. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: MoD Russia shares drone footage of military vehicles being targeted by FPV drones, including trucks and armored vehicles, with successful strikes visible. The video also shows a camouflaged armored vehicle under artillery strike. This confirms active RF FPV drone and artillery operations against UAF targets. (Confidence: HIGH)
Ukrainian HUR (Main Intelligence Directorate) units successfully struck and disabled an RF Black Sea Fleet vessel (Project MPSV07) near Novorossiysk. Russian channels are circulating video of a missile attack on artillery depots of RF's "Dnipro" Grouping of Forces located in Sonyachna Dolyna near Sudak in occupied Crimea. Ukrainian "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares multiple videos and text suggesting successful UAF drone attacks causing fires and explosions in Smolensk and Leningrad Oblasts, including a LUKOIL facility and Primorsk. The 46th Separate Airmobile Podilsky Brigade of the UAF DSHV shares photos celebrating a soldier who "burned 16 tanks and returned every time after being wounded," an internal UAF morale-boosting message. Colonelcassad shares video claiming an optical fiber FPV drone "VT-40" destroyed a storage site of 155mm M203A1 propelling charges, with a stated range of 30km. This, if verified, demonstrates effective RF counter-battery intelligence and drone-based targeting of UAF artillery logistics. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" and TASS report new batches of BMP-3s with enhanced protection kits and BMD-2s (after overhaul and modernization) have been delivered to RF troops, indicating sustained military production and improved armored vehicle capabilities. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) provides a series of photos under the caption "#Филия," which are tactical map screenshots of the Novopavlovsk direction. These images appear to depict Russian advances and territorial control in this area, indicating ongoing offensive operations or consolidation of gains, though the specific details of the map legend and symbols are not fully discernable without further context. "Воин DV" (RF milblogger) provides video footage claiming the "liberation" of Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by "Vostok" Grouping, with supporting drone footage of artillery strikes and claimed M-777 destruction. TASS provides video of Northern Fleet deployments for "West-2025" exercises, showcasing frigates, destroyers, and submarines, highlighting large-scale naval activity. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shares video of alleged liberation of Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by RF MOD, reinforcing Colonelcassad's claim. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the 141st Mechanized Brigade has received Croatian M-84 tanks, indicating continued Western military aid and UAF modernization. TASS reports the Pacific Fleet has started planned exercises with nuclear submarines and Bastion coastal missile systems, indicating further large-scale RF naval exercises. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares video of a military chaplain interacting with soldiers, offering spiritual support in combat zones, indicating efforts to boost morale through religious means. MoD Russia shares video of Northern Fleet forces deployed in near-shore and off-shore maritime zones for Zapad 2025, confirming naval component of the exercises. "Сливочный каприз" shares charts indicating the "Pace of offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces in the SMO zone," claiming advances of up to 40 km² per day, providing RF's internal assessment of offensive tempo. Colonelcassad reports an ongoing criminal case against former head of RF Ministry of Defense military representation, Andrei Tyurin, for abuse of power in state defense orders. "Сливочный каприз" shares drone footage of a settlement under artillery bombardment (Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk area), confirming continued ground pressure. "Воин DV" comments on Ukraine's delayed admission of territorial losses, indicating RF's view of UAF's information control. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF milblogger) shares video showing armored personnel carriers (APCs) or infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) moving in formation through wooded and open terrain, an attack helicopter (Ka-52 or Mi-28) in flight, a Tu-160 strategic bomber on a runway, and naval operations with warships, a hovercraft, and a submarine, with the caption "Кадры начала учений "Запад-2025"", confirming the commencement of large-scale military exercises involving multiple RF service branches. "Два майора" (RF milblogger) shares a video featuring three Russian soldiers expressing gratitude for donations of an armored vehicle and batteries, suggesting direct support for their operations. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" (RF milblogger) makes a public appeal for donations for "desantniks" (airborne troops). Colonelcassad posts a video about a "Collection for the 4th auto column," showcasing the restoration and modification of a civilian vehicle (likely a Niva) with military-inspired paint and "Z" symbols, indicating ongoing volunteer efforts to supply vehicles for RF forces. "Воин DV" shares a video from the Zaporizhzhia direction featuring a soldier with the callsign "Kizovsky," showing the work of an evacuation group under fire, including destroyed military equipment and bodies of deceased soldiers, with a Turkish self-loading rifle (AKdal MKA-1919) identified in the footage. This highlights intense combat and ongoing efforts to retrieve casualties and equipment. "Старше Эдды" shares a video titled "Svoi. Douglas — Cortes: on the work of reactive artillery and loyalty to the Russian army," which likely features RF reactive artillery in action and promotes loyalty narratives. "Старше Эдды" also shares a video from Senior Lieutenant Ivan Kurbatov of the 90th Tank Division, from a tank in a combat zone, delivering a patriotic message to Moscow. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video depicting Ukrainian soldiers carrying a body on a stretcher through wooded and open terrain, implying ongoing casualty evacuation operations. "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares a video showing a UAF MiG-29 conducting an aerial attack, described as "master class on dismantling the invaders' battalion headquarters" in Zaporizhzhia (Confidence: MEDIUM). "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares a video depicting drone thermal imaging footage of a moving vehicle at night, with a crosshair reticle, suggesting active surveillance or targeting. (Confidence: HIGH) "Игорь Артамонов" shares video depicting civilian development projects, including school construction and kindergarten renovation, unrelated to military operations. (Confidence: HIGH) "Басурин о главном" shares video of a Russian Ministry of Defense meeting discussing economical management principles and digitalization, featuring Shoigu and Belousov, focused on internal efficiency. (Confidence: HIGH) "Два майора" shares video of mobile groups of marine special forces with FPV drones protecting the coast of Crimea from uncrewed surface vessels (BEC) and other threats at night, showing drone deployment and monitoring. (Confidence: HIGH) Colonelcassad shares video of Lada Niva vehicles being painted in matte green camouflage, indicating ongoing volunteer efforts to supply modified civilian vehicles for RF forces. (Confidence: HIGH). MoD Russia shares a video detailing servicemen of the 37th Separate Guards Motorised Rifle Brigade (Vostok Group of Forces) liberating Novopetrovskoye (Dnepropetrovsk region) during offensive operations. This confirms unit involvement in a key territorial gain (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad (18:17:02) shares graphic photo messages of alleged UAF serviceman remains in the border zone. While I cannot analyze the content directly, the presence of such imagery from an RF milblogger aims to fuel IO narratives of UAF losses and atrocities. ТАСС (18:23:46) shares a video of rescuers evacuating a third body from a cable car accident on Elbrus. This is a civilian incident, but RF milbloggers may use such events to show the resilience of Russian emergency services or to divert attention. Kadyrov_95 (18:26:17) shares a video of the opening of a newly renovated highway from Grozny. This civilian infrastructure project aims to project normalcy, economic development, and positive governance, serving as internal morale-boosting IO. Zelenskiy / Official (18:28:53) and КМВА (18:29:22) share videos of President Zelenskyy meeting with advisors from UK, Germany, France, and Italy to discuss support and security guarantees. This confirms high-level diplomatic efforts to secure continued Western aid. Два майора (18:33:00) shares a video of thermal imaging from a drone, showing multiple explosions and artillery impacts in the Siverske direction. This indicates active RF artillery and drone operations in that area, likely targeting UAF positions or concentrations.
UPDATE: Оперативний ЗСУ (18:10:05) highlights an urgent need for a retranslator for the 72nd Brigade on the Kupiansk direction, indicating potential communication and C2 challenges for this UAF unit. The UAF General Staff (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS 18:17:55, Оперативний ЗСУ 18:30:14) is considering implementing mobile network shutdowns or internet slowdowns during air raid alerts, a significant control measure impacting friendly forces and civilian population alike. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (18:42:02) shares drone footage of a destroyed and burning vehicle, identifying it as a civilian vehicle struck by an RF "Molniya" kamikaze drone near Kramatorsk. This highlights the ongoing threat to civilian movement and confirms RF's disregard for non-combatants. DeepState (18:54:31) and Оперативний ЗСУ (19:01:50, 19:03:35) reveal RF forces utilizing gas pipes to cross the Oskil River and infiltrate Kupiansk, demonstrating an adaptive and covert infiltration tactic that UAF forces will need to counter. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (19:00:57) shares an interview with the former mayor of Kherson, Volodymyr Mykolaenko, discussing perceived failures in the initial defense of Kherson, which may be relevant for UAF internal reviews and accountability.
Conditions remained generally clear and favorable for air operations, including missile and UAV strikes across most of Ukraine. Localized heavy rainfall caused significant flooding in Kyiv. Expected thunderstorms in Kharkiv could temporarily impact local air operations. Storm weather is reported in Donetsk. RF tactical aviation is actively launching KABs on Sumy, Donetsk, and northern Kharkiv Oblasts. A ballistic missile threat from the northeast has been reported and subsequently lifted for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reconnaissance UAVs are active in the Black Sea towards Odesa and in Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts. RF drones are confirmed active across central, western, and northern Ukraine. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is under missile threat, with drone attacks confirmed on Synelnykove. A nationwide air raid alert was active due to the launch of an RF MiG-31K, a carrier of the "Kinzhal" aeroballistic missile, which was subsequently lifted. Fields and dry grass caught fire on the outskirts of Yenakiieve, potentially impacting visibility. Over 201 hectares of Kharkiv Oblast territory demined in a week. Krasnodar airport has reopened for civilian flights for the first time since the start of the war, indicating an improving logistical environment in southern RF. A Mi-8 helicopter made a hard landing in Kaliningrad due to bad weather. Poland has closed its border with Belarus, with military personnel deploying barricades and concertina wire. Air defense forces are active against UAVs over the southwestern part of Leningrad Oblast, and Pulkovo airport has implemented a "Carpet" plan (airspace closure). Enemy UAVs are detected in eastern Sumy Oblast, moving west. Additional UAVs heading towards Moscow have been destroyed. Pulkovo airport has warned of possible schedule adjustments. Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation are reported in Sumy Oblast. Enemy strike UAVs are detected in the Kakhovka region (Kherson Oblast), moving towards Mykolaiv Oblast. Over 20 UAVs have been destroyed over Leningrad Oblast, with debris fall recorded in Tosno. Enemy drones are approaching Kharkiv from the east. Air defense is active in Kyiv Oblast. Restrictions have been imposed in the airports of Ivanovo, Pskov, Yaroslavl, and St. Petersburg overnight. Enemy UAVs are detected in the northeastern part of Sumy Oblast. An explosion has been heard in Sumy, followed by several more explosions amidst drone activity. A ballistic missile threat from Kursk Oblast has been issued and subsequently lifted. The fire on a vessel in Primorsk port has been extinguished. "West-2025" joint exercises of Belarusian and Russian armed forces have started on training grounds in both countries and in the Baltic and Barents Seas. TASS reports "Pobeda" airline is adjusting flight schedules due to temporary restrictions at Pulkovo airport and Leningrad Oblast airspace, with some flights delayed. ASTRA reports 28 flights delayed, 13 cancelled, and 11 diverted at Pulkovo airport due to drone attacks. UAF Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by RF tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. TASS reports that flight restrictions have been lifted at the airports of Ivanovo and Yaroslavl. TASS reports that flight service for departures has resumed at Pulkovo airport. UAF Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by RF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast, indicating persistent air support for ground operations. "Север.Реалии" reports Pskov Governor has moved information about drone attacks to the state messenger Max, possibly indicating increased sensitivity or control over public information regarding deep strikes. "Новости Москвы" reports geomagetic disturbances from a new coronal hole may last up to 6 days, which could potentially impact satellite communications or other electronic systems. "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" issues an air raid alert and "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports KABs on Zaporizhzhia, indicating continued RF use of guided aerial bombs in the area, likely for close air support of ground operations. TASS reports earthquake in Bishkek, likely unrelated to conflict, but can serve as a distraction for RF population. TASS reports Pskov airport restrictions have been lifted, indicating a return to normalcy for this civilian air hub, previously impacted by UAF deep strikes. TASS and Новости Москвы report a record dry start to autumn in Moscow, which could impact agriculture and increase fire risk, but has no direct military significance at this time. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports the air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia city has been lifted, but missile danger for the region persists, indicating localized and ongoing threats. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports the air raid alert has been fully lifted, indicating a temporary cessation of immediate aerial threats in the region. UAF Air Force reports enemy attack UAVs heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast from northern Kherson Oblast. TASS reports the Northern Fleet has deployed forces in the Arctic Ocean for "West-2025" exercises. Germany's MFA summoned the Russian ambassador regarding the drone incident in Poland, highlighting the diplomatic severity of these events. Mash on Donbas reports explosions over Donetsk and active air defense, indicating continued aerial threats in the occupied territories. TASS reports Aeroflot has opened ticket sales for direct flights from Krasnodar for international programs, confirming further normalization of air travel from this southern RF hub. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" issues a threat of aviation munition use in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykove district). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a threat of aviation munitions use for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Новости Москвы reports anticipated frosts down to -2°C in some areas of Moscow region, which could impact ground operations and personnel comfort in the coming days. STERNENKO (UAF milblogger) reports that Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania have partially closed their airspace, indicating a direct response to recent RF drone incursions and heightened regional security. "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" reports the air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA reports that Lithuania and Estonia have closed their airspace for the duration of the Russian-Belarusian military exercises "West-2025." (Confidence: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAVs in southern Kharkiv Oblast moving west/south (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a ballistic missile threat from the east (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports a high-speed target in Kharkiv Oblast moving west (Confidence: HIGH). AV БогомаZ reports that RF MOD air defense units detected and suppressed a UAF UAV over Bryansk Oblast (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:10:24) reports the lifting of a ballistic missile threat, likely for Zaporizhzhia given the previous alert, indicating a temporary cessation of immediate aerial danger in that region. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (18:10:59) confirms the air raid alert has been lifted, supporting the Air Force report for Zaporizhzhia.
UPDATE: The UAF Air Force (18:12:23) reports strike UAVs in southern Kharkiv Oblast are moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating a continued aerial threat. An updated map of air raid alerts in Ukraine from РБК-Україна (18:14:54) shows ongoing aerial threats in various regions. TASS (18:56:06) reports KAB launches on Sumy Oblast, indicating continued RF aerial bombardment. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of strike UAVs in Kharkiv Oblast moving westward. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: РБК-Україна shares an updated map of enemy drone movements. (Confidence: HIGH)
UPDATE: Оперативний ЗСУ (18:10:05) highlights an urgent need for a retranslator for the 72nd Brigade on the Kupiansk direction, indicating potential communication and C2 challenges for this UAF unit. The UAF General Staff (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS 18:17:55, Оперативний ЗСУ 18:30:14) is considering implementing mobile network shutdowns or internet slowdowns during air raid alerts, a significant control measure impacting friendly forces and civilian population alike. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (18:42:02) shares drone footage of a destroyed and burning vehicle, identifying it as a civilian vehicle struck by an RF "Molniya" kamikaze drone near Kramatorsk. This highlights the ongoing threat to civilian movement and confirms RF's disregard for non-combatants. DeepState (18:54:31) and Оперативний ЗСУ (19:01:50, 19:03:35) reveal RF forces utilizing gas pipes to cross the Oskil River and infiltrate Kupiansk, demonstrating an adaptive and covert infiltration tactic that UAF forces will need to counter. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (19:00:57) shares an interview with the former mayor of Kherson, Volodymyr Mykolaenko, discussing perceived failures in the initial defense of Kherson, which may be relevant for UAF internal reviews and accountability. NEW: TASS reports RF forces have taken control of Alekseevsky Island along with the Antonovsky railway bridge over the Dnipro. This indicates an RF advance in the Kherson direction, potentially securing key positions on the Dnipro River. (Confidence: MEDIUM) NEW: "Воин DV" shares archive footage of FPV drone operations on the South Donetsk direction, showing "Vostok" Grouping operators destroying engineering equipment and defensive positions. This reinforces RF's persistent use of FPV drones for tactical advantage. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: RF milbloggers (Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z, Colonelcassad) are widely reporting that RF forces have penetrated Kupiansk via gas pipes ("Труба 3.0" tactic), describing a "whole underground artery" from Perviy Liman, used for moving assault groups on electric scooters and carts, with the journey taking 4 days. This suggests a highly adaptive and covert infiltration method, with a significant number of troops already dispersed in Kupiansk. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: MoD Russia shares drone footage of military vehicles being targeted by FPV drones, including trucks and armored vehicles, with successful strikes visible. The video also shows a camouflaged armored vehicle under artillery strike. This confirms active RF FPV drone and artillery operations against UAF targets. (Confidence: HIGH)
Sustained Ground Offensive with Massed Forces & Expanded Scope: RF demonstrates the capability for sustained, multi-axis ground offensives, achieving localized breakthroughs (Pokrovsk, Siversk, Lyman, Konstantinovka, Kirovsk, Novomykolaivka, Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye, Berezove, Novoselivka), urban combat, and deploying new robotic systems ('Kur'er'). Confirmed capability for new advances and "liberation" in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye, Novomykolaivka, Berezove, Novoselivka), a significant expansion of operational scope, with objectives to encircle UAF forces in Velykomykhailivka. Rosgvardia has been armed with tank/anti-tank guns, SPGs, and MLRS, enhancing RF's ground combat capability. RF has specialized armored units ("Terminator") and a T-90M Proryv tank capability against UAF UAV command posts. RF is proficient in FPV drone operations for close-quarters combat and strikes on urban positions (e.g., Polohy direction) and against UAF artillery logistics (e.g., 155mm charge destruction). RF units can conduct integrated ISR and direct engagement on multiple fronts (e.g., South Donetsk). RF is capable of managing combat casualties and maintaining medical support. RF is also employing non-standard vehicles (buggies, ATVs, motorcycles) for tactical purposes. RF airborne units can conduct offensive actions. RF demonstrates enhanced homeland air defense capabilities against mass drone attacks, claiming 221 UAVs shot down overnight, and effectively downing 33 UAVs in the latest wave. RF demonstrates capability to conduct large-scale, multi-domain military training through the "West-2025" exercises, including naval power projection. RF demonstrates capability for effective counter-drone operations using snipers against heavy strike UAVs ("Baba Yaga"). RF's Southern Grouping of Forces can destroy UAF UAV control posts and Starlink antennas, impacting UAF C2. RF demonstrates sustained military industrial production and modernization capabilities, delivering new BMP-3s and modernized BMD-2s to troops, as further confirmed by Poddubny. RF army aviation provides direct air support for ground advances (e.g., Iziumskyi district, Zaporizhzhia). The RF 68th ORB demonstrates capability for precise counter-C2 strikes against UAF communications (Starlink). RF "Sparta" battalion demonstrates capability for precision FPV drone strikes to destroy UAF UAV control points and communication antennas. RF is reportedly testing a "heavy drone evading EW," indicating an advanced counter-EW capability in development. RF 215th Combined Arms Army demonstrates combat training with AGS-17 Plamya, indicating continued readiness in the SVO zone. RF shows capability for active drone operations against Hryshyno. RF demonstrates ability to use military chaplains to support and motivate troops. RF "Anvar" special forces demonstrate capability to conduct thermal imaging drone-assisted attacks on convoys, supporting offensive operations on the Sumy axis. RF demonstrates a significant and sustained offensive tempo, claiming daily advances of up to 40 km² per day. MoD Russia claims capability to strike Ukrainian defense industry, transport, energy infrastructure, military airfields, and depots from 6-12 September, demonstrating sustained, high-precision strike capabilities. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows RF capability for active combat operations with drone surveillance and targeting, including destruction of military vehicles. "Воин DV" video shows RF capability for active FPV drone operations, engaging light vehicles and personnel. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video confirms RF capability for large-scale, multi-branch exercises ("West-2025") with strategic assets (bombers, submarines). Оперативний ЗСУ highlights RF's increasing use of FPV "Zhduny" (ambush) drones, indicating a specialized FPV drone tactic. "Два майора" video acknowledging donations suggests RF reliance on public support for armored vehicles and batteries. Colonelcassad's video on "4th auto column" demonstrates RF's ability to mobilize volunteer efforts for vehicle supply and modification. "Воин DV"'s video from Zaporizhzhia demonstrates RF's capability to operate evacuation groups under fire and highlights identification of enemy weapons (Turkish self-loading rifle). "Старше Эдды" video implies RF capability in reactive artillery operations. New video from "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shows Russian border guards destroying UAF equipment, infantry, and positions on the Bryansk-Chernihiv direction, indicating a sustained cross-border interdiction capability. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" videos showcasing new Russian UGVs ('Kurier', 'Fagot') for direct fire support, mine-laying, and reconnaissance, representing a significant technological advancement in ground combat. "Старше Эдды" video featuring Senior Lieutenant Ivan Kurbatov from the 90th Tank Division demonstrates RF's operational capability with modern tanks in assault operations and their ability to integrate combat footage into morale-boosting propaganda. Colonelcassad's report on a destroyed UAF PVD and automotive equipment in Sumy Oblast indicates RF's capability to conduct effective localized strikes against UAF rear area assets. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition's video of RF forces operating a captured hexacopter "Baba Yaga" demonstrates RF's adaptive capability to integrate and exploit captured enemy technology for its own combat operations. Kadyrov_95 shares video footage of the 78th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Sever-Akhmat" conducting artillery strikes on enemy positions, demonstrating active combat operations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports the appearance of Russian FPV drones in the central part of Kramatorsk, indicating RF's capability to conduct FPV operations deep within UAF-controlled urban areas. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares FPV drone footage showing a truck on a dirt road in a wooded area in the Iziumskyi district of Kharkiv Oblast, confirming RF's continuous FPV drone reconnaissance and targeting capabilities in this sector. Военкор Котенок's aerial footage of Vovchansk indicates RF's sustained destructive capability in urban warfare, likely from artillery and air strikes. "Рыбарь" map "Армия берет восток" (Army takes the East) visually confirms RF's ability to document and publicize territorial gains, reinforcing a narrative of successful offensive operations (Confidence: HIGH). "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" photo of airborne troops on the Konstantinovka direction confirms RF's ability to maintain a strong ground presence in key offensive sectors (Confidence: HIGH). "Воин DV" video displays RF's capability for aerial reconnaissance over urban and rural environments, showcasing military vehicles and demonstrating their ability to operate in contested areas. (Confidence: HIGH) "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" video shows RF's capability for active drone surveillance and potentially targeting of vehicles at night using thermal imaging. (Confidence: HIGH) "Два майора" video highlights RF marine special forces' capability in coastal defense operations, effectively using FPV drones against USVs and other threats, particularly at night. (Confidence: HIGH) Colonelcassad's video about the "4th auto column" highlights RF's intent to sustain and enhance its logistical support for ground forces through civilian mobilization. (Confidence: HIGH) RF Spetsnaz "Anvar" will continue cross-border interdiction operations and engagement of UAF PVDs and positions along the border (Confidence: HIGH). RF "Otvazhnye" units will maintain high-intensity offensive operations around Pokrovsk, focusing on degrading NATO-provided equipment and UAF positions (Confidence: HIGH). "Сливочный каприз" video demonstrates RF's ongoing ISR and targeting capabilities, employing thermal imaging drones to identify and track UAF vehicles and movements in both urban and rural settings (Confidence: HIGH). MoD Russia shares a video detailing servicemen of the 37th Separate Guards Motorised Rifle Brigade (Vostok Group of Forces) liberating Novopetrovskoye (Dnepropetrovsk region) during offensive operations. This confirms unit involvement in a key territorial gain (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports the Stavropol Airborne Assault Regiment was awarded the Order of Kutuzov, indicating recognition of combat effectiveness and potentially a morale boost (Confidence: HIGH). Басурин о главном shares a video of Ukrainian military personnel handling a hexacopter drone in Dnepropetrovsk region, with a Russian overlay implying RF forces have either captured or repurposed the drone, or are conducting counter-UAV operations. This highlights RF's adaptive capabilities (Confidence: HIGH). Два майора (18:23:25) shares video of RF soldiers loading heavy ammunition, indicating continued RF capacity for sustained artillery or heavy machine gun fire, particularly on the Siverske direction. Два майора (18:33:00) shares drone thermal imagery showing multiple explosions and artillery impacts in the Siverske direction, confirming active RF artillery capabilities and effective targeting of UAF positions. NEW: TASS reports RF forces have taken control of Alekseevsky Island. This indicates RF's capability to secure key terrain along the Dnipro River, likely through combined ground and riverine operations. (Confidence: MEDIUM) NEW: "Воин DV" archive footage demonstrates RF's continued capability for effective FPV drone operations against UAF engineering equipment and defensive positions on the South Donetsk direction. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: RF milbloggers (Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z, Colonelcassad) confirming RF penetration of Kupiansk via gas pipes demonstrates a highly innovative and covert infiltration capability, leveraging existing infrastructure to bypass UAF defenses. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: MoD Russia shares drone footage showcasing RF's integrated FPV drone and artillery targeting capabilities against UAF convoys, armored vehicles, and personnel, demonstrating high combat effectiveness. (Confidence: HIGH)
Ballistic Missile Strike Capability (North and Kursk Oblast): RF has the capability to conduct long-range precision strikes from the north and from Kursk Oblast, including against residential areas.
Drone Swarm Capability (Zaporizhzhia): RF maintains the capability to conduct persistent drone attacks, potentially in coordinated swarms, against key urban centers.
Adaptive FPV Drone Operations: RF is increasingly employing FPV drones for specialized tactical roles, demonstrating effective targeting against high-value assets and personnel, including against UAF transport concealed in forest belts and in combat zones (Polohy direction) and against artillery ammunition stores, and against UAF UAV control posts and communications. RF's use of FPV "Zhduny" drones indicates an adaptive and evolving FPV drone doctrine. The reported presence of Russian FPV drones in central Kramatorsk indicates a further adaptation to conduct operations deep within UAF-controlled urban areas.
Persistent IO and Cyber Operations (Highly Adaptive): RF maintains a robust capability for multi-layered information warfare, including rapid adaptation to new narratives, highly inflammatory accusations (e.g., TCC priest incident, Charlie Kirk assassination related narratives), and efforts to sow discord. RF is capable of immediate and coordinated IO, generating and disseminating narratives of Western weakness (e.g., Trump's comments), exploiting US internal events, and attempting to discredit Western media. RF conducts internal IO to reinforce domestic support and justify the conflict, including youth indoctrination and promoting nationalistic religious events. RF is capable of proactively shaping battlefield narratives (e.g., "looting" in Krasny Liman, "correct behavior" by RF troops, discrediting NATO drone claims, denying damage in Smolensk, blaming UAF for Myrotvorets listing of children). RF also demonstrates the capability for internal security operations against alleged pro-Ukrainian individuals, leveraged for propaganda. RF is capable of projecting long-term strategic goals (e.g., capture of Odesa and Mykolaiv by 2027). RF also intends to continue targeting UAF UAV C2 and communications. RF intends to actively conduct drone operations to support ground advances (e.g., Hryshyno, new combat video). RF intends to accelerate the pace of offensive operations, as indicated by its internal assessments. RF intends to use advanced FPV drone tactics, like "Zhduny," to ambush UAF forces. The confirmed start of "West-2025" exercises will likely coincide with or support some level of offensive or deterrent activity, possibly involving multi-branch deployments. RF will also continue cross-border interdiction operations, particularly on the Bryansk-Chernihiv direction. RF will utilize its new robotic ground vehicles ('Kurier', 'Fagot') to enhance offensive operations, mine-laying, and close support. RF will leverage tank units like the 90th Tank Division for assault operations. RF will continue localized strikes against UAF rear area assets, as demonstrated in Sumy Oblast. RF will adapt and exploit captured UAF equipment for its own operations. RF will use FPV drones in deep urban areas like Kramatorsk to increase pressure and conduct reconnaissance/strikes. RF will use formations like the 78th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Sever-Akhmat" for effective combat operations, including artillery strikes. RF will use FPV drone operations for continuous reconnaissance and targeting in key areas like the Iziumskyi district. RF will maintain destructive urban warfare on axes like Vovchansk. RF will counter narratives about Putin's intent to continue the war, as articulated by Polish FM Sikorski (Confidence: HIGH). RF IO will continue to frame NATO's involvement as indirect conflict, with Russia fighting NATO through Ukraine, as stated by Polish FM Sikorski, to justify its own actions and discredit Western support (Confidence: HIGH). RF will continue to use official MoD summaries to frame the conflict narrative and project operational success (Confidence: HIGH). RF IO demonstrates capability to leverage international political events (Israel/UN GA) to portray global instability and divert attention (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad's message indicates RF has the capability to monitor and identify "bot counter-offensives" within Telegram, demonstrating a focus on internal information control and the ability to detect and comment on such activities (Confidence: MEDIUM). TASS shares a photo message of Pavel Durov's statement identifying Charlie Kirk's death as an "assault on free speech," reinforcing RF's strategy of leveraging US domestic events for anti-Western IO. (Confidence: HIGH) Colonelcassad amplifies Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski's statement that NATO is not fighting Russia, but Russia is fighting NATO through Ukraine, providing a critical Western framing that RF IO will attempt to counter. (Confidence: HIGH) "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares a video celebrating Sergey Parchevsky, a boxing trainer and DPR People's Council deputy, focusing on his commitment to sports and community in Donbas amidst conflict, a form of internal morale-boosting propaganda. (Confidence: HIGH) "Janus Putkonen" (Finnish milblogger) shares multiple videos (memes) from Poland satirizing the "Russian drone attack," as well as a video of a downed commercial drone with "Терроризировать" (Terrorize) written on it. This indicates RF-aligned milbloggers are actively using humor and documented incidents to shape narratives around drone attacks and Ukrainian actions. (Confidence: HIGH) TASS reports Polish FM Sikorski acknowledged some drones violating Polish airspace came from Ukraine, not solely Belarus. This is a significant development that RF IO will immediately leverage to shift blame for airspace violations and undermine the narrative of exclusive Russian aggression. (Confidence: HIGH) "Игорь Артамонов" shares video depicting civilian development projects, including school construction and kindergarten renovation. This represents local RF IO to project normalcy and development, particularly in regions that may have proximity to the conflict or receive support from the government. (Confidence: HIGH) "Басурин о главном" shares video of a Russian Ministry of Defense meeting discussing economical management principles and digitalization, featuring Shoigu and Belousov. This is a domestic IO effort to project efficiency and modernization within the RF military. (Confidence: HIGH) "РБК-Україна" reports a NATO general states "Operation Eastern Guardian" does not include integration with Ukrainian air defense, which RF IO could leverage to highlight perceived limitations of NATO support for Ukraine. (Confidence: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message of a UN General Assembly vote on Palestine, with a caption claiming Russia and Ukraine united against Israeli "occupiers, murderers, and bloodsuckers." This is a highly inflammatory RF IO narrative seeking to create a false sense of unity with Ukraine against a common perceived enemy (Israel) while also demonizing Israel. (Confidence: HIGH). Рыбарь shares a photo message with the caption "Вакуум власти" (Vacuum of Power), without direct military context but potentially alluding to a political situation that RF IO could exploit (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports a court extended the arrest of Artemiy Ostanin, a comedian accused of inciting hatred against SVO participants. This is a clear RF internal IO effort to suppress dissent and demonstrate the consequences of criticizing the military operation. (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares a photo message re-amplifying the extended arrest of Artemiy Ostanin, reinforcing the internal IO effort (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns re-amplifies the extended arrest of Artemiy Ostanin, adding "Jokes are over," further emphasizing the severity of the internal crackdown and the intolerance of dissent (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Putin's speech at the cultural forum emphasizes national culture, interaction, love, friendship, and historical memory, consistent with RF's soft power and ideological narratives. (Confidence: HIGH). Новости Москвы reports that a service for ordering a killer has been blocked by a Moscow court, indicating RF's internal security efforts and information control. (Confidence: HIGH). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of an RF "SVO participant" (soldier) after a prisoner exchange, claiming to be unfit for service due to injuries but being sent back to the front. This is a potential UAF IO piece to highlight RF's disregard for its soldiers and potential mobilization issues (Confidence: HIGH). Рыбарь shares a photo message with the caption "В Лондоне уломали Санду," indicating an IO narrative about Moldovan President Sandu being influenced by Western powers, likely for RF's geopolitical messaging (Confidence: HIGH). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) shares photo messages and text claiming young Ukrainian men (18-22) are massively fleeing Ukraine after borders opened for that age group. This is an RF IO effort to highlight perceived draft evasion and demoralize Ukraine (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad provides details on former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov's corruption charges, including 1.3 billion rubles in bribes and over 4 billion in total fraud. This highlights ongoing internal RF corruption issues (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad provides photos from September 11, 2025, titled "Темп наступления," which appear to be charts detailing the pace of Russian offensive operations. This suggests a continued RF IO effort to project progress and control the narrative of battlefield momentum. (Confidence: HIGH). TASS (18:11:27) shares Putin's statements on cultural diplomacy, indicating RF's intent to project a peaceful, culturally rich image to the international community, countering narratives of military aggression and undermining international support for Ukraine. ТАСС (18:20:05) reports on extended EU sanctions. RF intends to downplay the impact of these sanctions and frame them as an attempt by the West to harm the Russian economy, but ultimately failing. Басурин о главном (18:24:42), Операция Z (18:30:32), and Alex Parker Returns (18:25:45, 18:31:02, 18:33:36) all amplify Putin's cultural forum speech and statements. RF intends to leverage these messages for broad IO, aiming to boost national morale, promote traditional values, and project an image of Russia as a strong, unified, and culturally rich nation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (18:17:55) and Оперативний ЗСУ (18:30:14) report on potential mobile network shutdowns during air raid alerts. RF will likely exploit this for IO, framing it as a desperate measure by Ukraine, a sign of its inability to defend its populace, or a suppression of information, aiming to erode public trust in Ukrainian authorities. NEW: ASTRA reports the European Parliament refused to honor Charlie Kirk with a minute of silence, which RF IO will leverage to highlight perceived Western hypocrisy and discredit Western institutions. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: STERNENKO (UAF milblogger) reports on "Drone safety" in several Russian oblasts, implying continued UAF drone activity or threats in these areas. RF IO will likely attempt to downplay or deny the impact of these, or frame them as "terrorism." (Confidence: MEDIUM)
UPDATE: RF IO will continue to leverage Putin's statements on cultural diplomacy, as reported by TASS (18:38:55) and TASS (18:58:57), to project a positive image of Russia internationally and domestically, deflecting from military aggression. Colonelcassad (18:47:02) and TASS (18:56:56) indicate an intent for intensified RF IO to discredit UAF leadership and demoralize its forces, particularly through accusations of corruption and mass desertion. Операция Z (18:54:45) is actively leveraging statements from Polish FM Sikorski, framing the drone incident as a "Russian operation" and "moment of truth," demonstrating RF's opportunistic IO to sow discord within NATO and influence narratives about the drone incursions. NEW: The widespread RF milblogger reporting on the Kupiansk infiltration ("Труба 3.0" tactic) by Alex Parker Returns (19:19:23), Операция Z (19:19:34), and Colonelcassad (19:15:08) indicates a concerted RF IO effort to publicize a significant tactical success, highlight RF ingenuity, and demoralize UAF forces. This narrative will be heavily pushed. (Confidence: HIGH)
RF IO Vulnerability: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The confirmed death of a civilian in Belgorod from a malfunctioning RF Pantsir air defense missile booster (ASTRA, Sever.Realii) creates a significant IO vulnerability for RF, contradicting its narrative of UAF sole responsibility for civilian casualties and potentially eroding public trust in its air defense systems. This will be an immediate target for UAF counter-IO.
RF Internal IO Challenges: (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad's message about Telegram bot failures and a "bot counter-offensive" suggests internal challenges in maintaining RF's information dominance and controlling online narratives. Colonelcassad (18:33:01) discussing "pirated content" may also hint at internal information control issues or the difficulty of suppressing unofficial narratives.
Courses of Action (COA):
MLCOA 1 (Ground Offensive Reinforcement & Consolidation - Pokrovsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Lyman, Sumy, Konstantinovka, Dobropillya, Novopavlovsk, Siverske, Kupiansk, Kherson): RF will intensify ground offensives on the Pokrovsk axis, attempting to clear UAF from urban areas of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and consolidate gains towards Myrnograd. Simultaneously, RF will commit significant forces to consolidate and expand the new salient in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye, Novomykolaivka, Berezove, Novoselivka area), aiming to complete the encirclement of Velykomykhailivka, and continue advances towards Novoivanivka. RF will exploit the claimed control of Kolodyazi and Kirovsk and continue advances on the Krasny Liman direction, with a focus on Predtechino and Pleshcheyevka to enable further advance on Konstantinovka. RF's 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment and other units will initiate or intensify offensive operations on the Sumy front (Yunakovka area) to draw UAF reserves, supported by army aviation, including "Anvar" special forces-led attacks. High-tempo probing attacks will continue on the Kupyansk and South Donetsk axes to fix UAF reserves and prevent redeployments. RF will continue employing snipers for counter-UAV operations and utilize fiber-optic FPV drones for precision strikes against UAF logistics. RF will integrate newly delivered and modernized armored vehicles into these ground operations and continue offensive operations in the Novopavlivka direction. RF will also use FAB guided aerial bombs on UAF rear positions (Druzhkivka). RF FPV drone units (e.g., "Sparta" battalion) will continue to target UAF UAV control points and communications. RF ground units will continue combat training, including with AGS-17 Plamya. RF will continue active drone support for ground advances. RF will increasingly use FPV "Zhduny" drones for ambushes. The confirmed start of "West-2025" exercises will likely coincide with or support some level of offensive or deterrent activity, possibly involving multi-branch deployments. RF will also continue cross-border interdiction operations, particularly on the Bryansk-Chernihiv direction. RF will deploy and integrate new robotic ground vehicles ('Kurier', 'Fagot') to enhance offensive and area denial capabilities, especially on key axes like Siversk. RF will utilize its 90th Tank Division in assault operations, likely focusing on breakthrough or exploitation objectives. RF will continue to conduct localized strikes against UAF temporary deployment points and automotive equipment in Sumy Oblast. RF will adaptively use captured UAF hexacopters for its own reconnaissance or strike missions. RF will conduct FPV drone operations in central Kramatorsk, aiming to disrupt UAF logistics, C2, or create psychological impact. RF will continue to use formations like the 78th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Sever-Akhmat" for sustained artillery support and combat operations. RF will conduct FPV drone reconnaissance and targeting operations in the Iziumskyi district of Kharkiv Oblast. RF will maintain destructive urban warfare operations on axes like Vovchansk, as evidenced by aerial footage. RF will continue to focus ground combat operations on the eastern front, as indicated by the "Рыбарь" map, reinforcing gains and advancing where possible (Confidence: HIGH). RF will sustain ground pressure on the Konstantinovka direction, utilizing airborne troops for assault or holding actions (Confidence: HIGH). RF will maintain continuous aerial reconnaissance over combat zones, using drones to monitor enemy movements and identify targets, as evidenced by "Воин DV" video. (Confidence: HIGH) RF will continue drone surveillance and targeting operations, including at night using thermal imaging, to support ground forces and interdict enemy movements, as indicated by "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" video. (Confidence: HIGH) RF marine special forces will continue to conduct FPV drone-assisted coastal defense operations in Crimea, specifically targeting USVs and other threats at night, as seen in "Два майора" video. (Confidence: HIGH) Colonelcassad's video about the "4th auto column" highlights RF's intent to sustain and enhance its logistical support for ground forces through civilian mobilization. (Confidence: HIGH) RF Spetsnaz "Anvar" will continue cross-border interdiction operations and engagement of UAF PVDs and positions along the border (Confidence: HIGH). RF "Otvazhnye" units will maintain high-intensity offensive operations around Pokrovsk, focusing on degrading NATO-provided equipment and UAF positions (Confidence: HIGH). RF will continue drone-based ISR and targeting of UAF ground movements, including the identification and engagement of various enemy vehicles (Confidence: HIGH). (Confidence: HIGH) Два майора (18:33:00) video from the Siverske direction confirms RF's intent to sustain artillery fire and drone-based targeting against UAF positions in this area, likely in support of continued ground advances. NEW: RF will consolidate control of Alekseevsky Island and the Antonovsky railway bridge in the Kherson direction, using these positions to enhance riverine security and potentially launch limited probing attacks across the Dnipro or to interdict UAF movement. (Confidence: MEDIUM) NEW: RF will leverage the new infiltration tactic via gas pipes ("Труба 3.0") to reinforce its presence in Kupiansk, aiming to establish a stronger foothold and disrupt UAF defenses from within the urban area, potentially leading to further advances or an attempt at encirclement. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: RF will continue to use FPV drones for precision strikes against UAF engineering equipment and defensive positions on the South Donetsk direction, as demonstrated in the "Воин DV" archive footage. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: RF will continue to use integrated FPV drone and artillery operations to target UAF convoys, armored vehicles, and personnel, as shown in the MoD Russia drone footage, aiming to degrade UAF combat potential and logistics. (Confidence: HIGH)
MLCOA 2 (Sustained Air/Missile Campaign Targeting Critical Infrastructure & Probing Homeland Defense): RF will conduct multiple waves of UAV strikes (30-60 drones per wave) and widespread guided aerial bomb (KAB) attacks, prioritizing Ukrainian energy, industrial, and logistical infrastructure, with continued ballistic missile threats from the east, including against residential areas (e.g., Sumy Oblast, Zaporizhzhia, Leningrad Oblast, Druzhkivka, Synelnykove district, southern Kharkiv Oblast). RF will aim to inflict maximum damage and civilian casualties in an attempt to erode morale. RF will also employ FAB guided aerial bombs against UAF rear areas. RF intends to prevent UAF from acquiring long-range strike capabilities, as evidenced by Zakharova's statements on Danish rocket fuel production. RF intends to demonstrate the capability and willingness to attack Ukrainian nuclear facilities (e.g., Smolensk NPP, even if ancillary facilities) as a means of psychological pressure and potential escalation. RF intends to frame UAF deep strikes against sensitive Russian targets like nuclear power plants as "nuclear terrorism" for propaganda. Росатом's statement implies RF intent to downplay damage to sensitive targets like nuclear power plants. RF will also continue to spread narratives about the risk of nuclear accidents at Ukrainian facilities due to RF strikes. RF will continue UAV operations targeting Kyiv Oblast, including Vyshhorod district. RF will continue to attempt to degrade UAF air capabilities through air-to-air engagements or air defense systems, and will publicize any confirmed UAF air losses for IO purposes, as seen with the Su-27 wreckage (Confidence: HIGH). MoD Russia's video of drone deployment and subsequent report of overwhelming an enemy hexacopter's control channels indicates RF's intent to maintain ISR dominance and counter UAF air assets, particularly in key regions like Dnepropetrovsk. (Confidence: HIGH) "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reporting UAF reactive drones implies RF's intent to counter this new threat and potentially escalate its own long-range strike capabilities (Confidence: HIGH). RF will continue to deploy offensive air assets in southern Kharkiv Oblast, as indicated by strike UAVs moving west/south (Confidence: HIGH). RF will persist with ballistic missile threats from the east, demonstrating their intent to maintain long-range strike capability (Confidence: HIGH). RF will continue to deploy high-speed targets in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating ongoing aerial reconnaissance or probing attacks (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports an FPV-drone attacking the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZAES) was shot down. This indicates RF's intent to actively defend critical infrastructure, and potentially to leverage such incidents for IO purposes, framing UAF as reckless (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad's animated scheme of strikes on Ukraine highlights RF's intent to systematically target various regions with drones and guided aerial bombs, demonstrating a persistent strategy to degrade Ukrainian capabilities and infrastructure (Confidence: HIGH). (Confidence: HIGH) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:12:23) reports strike UAVs moving from southern Kharkiv to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF intends to continue these strike operations, likely targeting critical infrastructure or military assets in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. NEW: RF will conduct further UAV strikes in Kharkiv Oblast, following westward courses, as indicated by UAF Air Force reports. These strikes will likely target UAF logistics, troop concentrations, or critical infrastructure. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: RF will continue missile and drone strikes against civilian targets, including communal brigades and civilian vehicles, particularly near frontlines or in areas of UAF presence (e.g., Kramatorsk), aiming to disrupt normal life and inflict terror, while denying responsibility or framing as legitimate military targets. (Confidence: HIGH)
MLCOA 3 (Escalated Hybrid Operations and Information Warfare with Border Provocations): RF will continue to probe NATO airspace with smaller, coordinated groups of UAVs to test response thresholds and identify vulnerabilities. This will be accompanied by an an aggressive, multi-layered information campaign to deny responsibility for incursions (e.g., Poland drone damage pre-existing, Smolensk no damage), blame Ukraine (especially for civilian casualties in border regions like Bryansk, Belgorod, Kharkiv civilian vehicle, Kramatorsk communal brigade, civilians near Kramatorsk), mock NATO's response, and amplify perceived disunity within the alliance (e.g., Trump's comments on Poland, US internal events). RF will leverage the "West-2025" exercises for a show of force and internal propaganda, potentially staging border provocations involving Belarusian forces to maintain pressure on Poland and Lithuania, and projecting naval power in the Baltic/Barents Seas via Northern Fleet deployments (including Arctic Ocean) and in the Pacific via Pacific Fleet exercises. RF will also proactively frame battlefield developments (e.g., "looting" in Krasny Liman, "liberation" of Novopetrovskoye, Kupiansk infiltration) and employ highly inflammatory narratives (e.g., TCC priest incident, SBU priest arrest, Myrotvorets listing of children/Kurtukova, Kuzminov's mother, father of murdered Ukrainian, blaming UAF for disrupting diplomacy, discrediting Patriot aid, Polish drone incident staging claims, derogatory posts about Western leaders, Danish rocket fuel production, Solovyev assassination plot, "Zelenskyy killing for Western money," Orban's criticism of von der Leyen, Zakharova's "bloody monster" Kyiv, UAF commander from Mariupol brigade) to control the narrative and demonize Ukrainian authorities. RF will also use internal security operations (e.g., FSB Klimovsk, Solovyev assassination plot, Tyurin corruption case, Artemiy Ostanin arrest) for propaganda and promote internal electoral processes (naming polling stations after war participants). RF will continue to leverage international events (e.g., Brazil, Trump's potential Uzbekistan visit) and blame UAF for disrupting diplomacy (Russia-US summit). RF will also actively work to discredit Western military aid (e.g., Danish rocket fuel production, "inoperable Patriot" claims) and counter Ukrainian IO efforts, including claims of "fake" videos. RF will continue to use external political statements (Philippot, Orban) to support its IO and attempt to undermine Western unity. RF will continue to use religious themes to boost military morale. RF will leverage the "pause" in negotiations by blaming European and Ukrainian leaders. RF will intensify propaganda efforts against Ukrainian officials' alleged hypocrisy (e.g., children abroad vs. calls for duty). RF will systematically frame UAF actions as "terrorist war" against Russian civilians. RF will leverage diplomatic actions (Germany summoning ambassador) to reinforce its IO narratives. RF IO will exploit US domestic news (Charlie Kirk murder suspect apprehension, identification of suspect Tyler Robinson, EU Parliament refusal for minute of silence) to further its narratives. RF IO will use internal political discussions (United Russia candidates) for narrative control. RF IO will use mobilization narratives (ban on leaving country) to control internal population. RF IO will target dissenting voices (Dmitry Bykov, Eduard Charlotte). RF will continue to use economic reporting (e.g., housing construction) and financial policy (citizen fund blocking) for domestic IO to project stability and reassurance. RF will also use consumer-focused promotions (Alfa-Bank cashback for train tickets) for normalcy IO. RF IO will continue to leverage Hungarian PM Orban's solidarity with Poland, despite previous efforts to portray disunity, to reinforce narratives of a unified Eastern European stance against RF aggression, or potentially to highlight a perceived shift by Hungary if their stance differs from the EU mainstream. AV БогомаZ's civilian development projects will be used in local IO to project normalcy and development. Kotsnews's "artilleryman's amulet" will be used to reinforce troop morale. RF IO will adapt educational narratives to incorporate AI considerations. RF IO will attempt to manage and exploit reports of internal socio-economic problems in occupied territories (e.g., Donetsk water crisis) to control narratives. RF IO will adjust narratives on military cooperation with NATO to downplay direct NATO involvement in Ukraine. RF IO will use lighthearted (Zelenskyy/Kellogg's) and negative (Makeyevka house unsafe) narratives to shape perceptions. RF milbloggers like Alex Parker Returns continue to adapt derogatory and inflammatory IO against Ukrainian and Western leadership (Zelenskyy, Kellogg). RF IO will continue to use detailed (even if sensationalized) information about US domestic incidents (Charlie Kirk assassination) to further its anti-Western narratives and demonize alleged "extremist" elements. RF IO will leverage Polish FM Sikorski's statement about maintaining diplomatic ties with Russia to sow confusion and potentially undermine the perception of NATO unity against Russia. RF will actively counter Polish diplomatic framing that Putin intends to continue the war, as well as the narrative that Russia is fighting NATO through Ukraine, likely through denial of direct aggression and re-emphasis on UAF provocations (Confidence: HIGH). RF will continue to use MoD reports to control the narrative of the overall conflict, highlighting perceived successes and downplaying setbacks (Confidence: HIGH). RF will continue to leverage international political events (Israel/UN GA) to portray a chaotic global order, reinforcing its own position and deflecting attention from Ukraine (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad's message about Telegram bot failures and "bot counter-offensives" indicates RF's intent to manage internal information flow and combat perceived information attacks (Confidence: MEDIUM). TASS shares a photo message of Pavel Durov's statement identifying Charlie Kirk's death as an "assault on free speech," reinforcing RF's strategy of leveraging US domestic events for anti-Western IO. (Confidence: HIGH) Colonelcassad amplifies Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski's statement that NATO is not fighting Russia, but Russia is fighting NATO through Ukraine, providing a critical Western framing that RF IO will attempt to counter. (Confidence: HIGH) "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares a video celebrating Sergey Parchevsky, a boxing trainer and DPR People's Council deputy, focusing on his commitment to sports and community in Donbas amidst conflict, a form of internal morale-boosting propaganda. (Confidence: HIGH) "Janus Putkonen" (Finnish milblogger) shares multiple videos (memes) from Poland satirizing the "Russian drone attack," as well as a video of a downed commercial drone with "Терроризировать" (Terrorize) written on it. This indicates RF-aligned milbloggers are actively using humor and documented incidents to shape narratives around drone attacks and Ukrainian actions. (Confidence: HIGH) TASS reports Polish FM Sikorski acknowledged some drones violating Polish airspace came from Ukraine, not solely Belarus. This is a significant development that RF IO will immediately leverage to shift blame for airspace violations and undermine the narrative of exclusive Russian aggression. (Confidence: HIGH) "Игорь Артамонов" shares video depicting civilian development projects, including school construction and kindergarten renovation. This represents local RF IO to project normalcy and development, particularly in regions that may have proximity to the conflict or receive support from the government. (Confidence: HIGH) "Басурин о главном" shares video of a Russian Ministry of Defense meeting discussing economical management principles and digitalization, featuring Shoigu and Belousov. This is a domestic IO effort to project efficiency and modernization within the RF military. (Confidence: HIGH) "РБК-Україна" reports a NATO general states "Operation Eastern Guardian" does not include integration with Ukrainian air defense, which RF IO could leverage to highlight perceived limitations of NATO support for Ukraine. (Confidence: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message of a UN General Assembly vote on Palestine, with a caption claiming Russia and Ukraine united against Israeli "occupiers, murderers, and bloodsuckers." This is a highly inflammatory RF IO narrative seeking to create a false sense of unity with Ukraine against a common perceived enemy (Israel) while also demonizing Israel. (Confidence: HIGH). Рыбарь shares a photo message with the caption "Вакуум власти" (Vacuum of Power), without direct military context but potentially alluding to a political situation that RF IO could exploit (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports a court extended the arrest of Artemiy Ostanin, a comedian accused of inciting hatred against SVO participants. This is a clear RF internal IO effort to suppress dissent and demonstrate the consequences of criticizing the military operation. (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares a photo message re-amplifying the extended arrest of Artemiy Ostanin, reinforcing the internal IO effort (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns re-amplifies the extended arrest of Artemiy Ostanin, adding "Jokes are over," further emphasizing the severity of the internal crackdown and the intolerance of dissent (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Putin's speech at the cultural forum emphasizes national culture, interaction, love, friendship, and historical memory, consistent with RF's soft power and ideological narratives. (Confidence: HIGH). Новости Москвы reports that a service for ordering a killer has been blocked by a Moscow court, indicating RF's internal security efforts and information control. (Confidence: HIGH). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of an RF "SVO participant" (soldier) after a prisoner exchange, claiming to be unfit for service dues to injuries but being sent back to the front. This is a potential UAF IO piece to highlight RF's disregard for its soldiers and potential mobilization issues (Confidence: HIGH). Рыбарь shares a photo message with the caption "В Лондоне уломали Санду," indicating an IO narrative about Moldovan President Sandu being influenced by Western powers, likely for RF's geopolitical messaging (Confidence: HIGH). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) shares photo messages and text claiming young Ukrainian men (18-22) are massively fleeing Ukraine after borders opened for that age group. This is an RF IO effort to highlight perceived draft evasion and demoralize Ukraine (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad provides details on former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov's corruption charges, including 1.3 billion rubles in bribes and over 4 billion in total fraud. This highlights ongoing internal RF corruption issues (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad provides photos from September 11, 2025, titled "Темп наступления," which appear to be charts detailing the pace of Russian offensive operations. This suggests a continued RF IO effort to project progress and control the narrative of battlefield momentum. (Confidence: HIGH). TASS (18:11:27) shares Putin's statements at the cultural forum. RF intends to use this as a platform for cultural diplomacy, aiming to project a non-aggressive, unifying image of Russia globally, countering the narrative of military aggression and undermining international support for Ukraine. ТАСС (18:20:05) reports on extended EU sanctions. RF intends to frame these sanctions as economically inconsequential or as further evidence of Western hostility, for both domestic and international audiences. Басурин о главном (18:24:42), Операция Z (18:30:32), and Alex Parker Returns (18:25:45, 18:31:02, 18:33:36) all amplify Putin's cultural forum speech and statements. RF intends to leverage these messages for broad IO, aiming to boost national morale, promote traditional values, and project an image of Russia as a strong, unified, and culturally rich nation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (18:17:55) and Оперативний ЗСУ (18:30:14) report on potential mobile network shutdowns during air raid alerts. RF will likely exploit this for IO, framing it as a desperate measure by Ukraine, a sign of its inability to defend its populace, or a suppression of information, aiming to erode public trust in Ukrainian authorities. NEW: ASTRA reports the European Parliament refused to honor Charlie Kirk with a minute of silence. RF IO will leverage this to highlight perceived Western hypocrisy and discredit Western institutions and the US. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: RF will likely deny or frame the reported strike on a communal brigade and civilian fatalities near Kramatorsk as UAF actions or legitimate military targets, for immediate IO counter-narratives. (Confidence: HIGH)
UPDATE: RF IO will continue to leverage Putin's statements on cultural diplomacy, as reported by TASS (18:38:55) and TASS (18:58:57), to project a positive image of Russia internationally and domestically, deflecting from military aggression. Colonelcassad (18:47:02) and TASS (18:56:56) indicate an intent for intensified RF IO to discredit UAF leadership and demoralize its forces, particularly through accusations of corruption and mass desertion. Операция Z (18:54:45) is actively leveraging statements from Polish FM Sikorski, framing the drone incident as a "Russian operation" and "moment of truth," demonstrating RF's opportunistic IO to sow discord within NATO and influence narratives about the drone incursions. NEW: The widespread RF milblogger reporting on the Kupiansk infiltration ("Труба 3.0" tactic) by Alex Parker Returns (19:19:23), Операция Z (19:19:34), and Colonelcassad (19:15:08) indicates a concerted RF IO effort to publicize a significant tactical success, highlight RF ingenuity, and demoralize UAF forces. This narrative will be heavily pushed. (Confidence: HIGH)
RF Ground:
RF Air/Missile:
RF Information Warfare (IO):
UPDATE: Оперативний ЗСУ (18:10:05) highlights an urgent logistical requirement for a retranslator for the 72nd Brigade on the Kupiansk direction, indicating immediate needs for effective communications and drone operations in that heavily contested sector. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (19:14:55) also appeals for help for "Lyuti" pilots, indicating ongoing resource needs for UAF drone operations. The confirmed infiltration tactic ("Труба 3.0") by RF in Kupiansk via gas pipes (DeepState 18:54:31, Оперативний ЗСУ 19:01:50, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS 19:03:35, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 19:11:46, Alex Parker Returns 19:19:23, Операция Z 19:19:34, Colonelcassad 19:15:08) presents a new and immediate challenge to UAF logistical security in the area, as traditional defenses may be bypassed.
UPDATE: Оперативний ЗСУ (18:10:05) highlights a potential C2 vulnerability for the 72nd Brigade on the Kupiansk direction due to an urgent need for a retranslator. This indicates a localized but critical gap in communication and potentially drone operational control. The UAF General Staff's consideration of shutting down mobile networks or slowing internet during air raid alerts (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS 18:17:55, Оперативний ЗСУ 18:30:14) is a significant C2 decision point with wide-ranging implications for civilian communication and emergency response. This will require careful management and public messaging. RF's use of gas pipes to infiltrate Kupiansk (DeepState 18:54:31, Оперативний ЗСУ 19:01:50, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS 19:03:35, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 19:11:46, Alex Parker Returns 19:19:23, Операция Z 19:19:34, Colonelcassad 19:15:08) suggests a tactical C2 adaptation to bypass conventional UAF defensive structures, challenging established perimeter control measures and requiring UAF to rapidly adapt its C2 to counter such infiltration.
UAF maintains a resilient defensive posture, successfully repelling 130 RF attacks across all major axes in the last 24 hours. UAF drone operators are demonstrating tactical effectiveness against RF personnel, vehicles, and logistics, with verified success in targeting RF ground forces (e.g., BMD-3) and infrastructure (e.g., bridge destruction). Ukrainian air defenses achieved a 94% interception rate (62 of 66 UAVs) against a significant RF air attack in the previous wave, and shot down/suppressed 33 of 40 UAVs in the latest wave, demonstrating continued effectiveness. UAF continues to demonstrate asymmetric warfare capabilities through resistance movements like "ATESH" and successful deep strikes on RF territory and naval assets (e.g., Project MPSV07 vessel, Smolensk oil depot, Luhansk ammunition depot, Primorsk port vessel and pumping station, Transneft oil pumping station in Vladimir Oblast). UAF is actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to enhance international cooperation and air defense capabilities, including sharing expertise on countering Shaheds and training Polish military personnel on drone interception. UAF is committed to internal transparency and anti-corruption efforts (e.g., Poltava prison torture trial, detention of woman selling humanitarian aid cars, ex-commander corruption investigation, Ukrainian MP fraud investigation). Morale is bolstered by public solidarity, recognition of valor (e.g., "Man in the Military" award, the DSHV celebration of a soldier who "burned 16 tanks"), and official support for POW families. Rheinmetall's planned shell production in Ukraine significantly enhances long-term readiness. High-level US, Danish, Finnish, Estonian, British (Foreign Minister), and Polish (Foreign Minister) diplomatic engagement confirms strong international support. The arrival of British Prince Harry further raises international awareness and support. UAF is also focused on protecting civilian life through initiatives like underground schools in Vilnyansk. UAF General Staff reports 890 RF combat losses over the last 24 hours. UAF is preparing for continued intense defensive operations on multiple fronts, as evidenced by the delivery of logistical vehicles to the Zaporizhzhia front. The graphic video of a UAF soldier receiving field medical aid highlights the resilience of UAF personnel and the importance of combat medicine. UAF 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" demonstrates proactive development and deployment of advanced UAVs, signaling enhanced tactical capabilities. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" (UAF milblogger) claims Ukrainian Defense Forces (СОУ) have "cleared and liberated" the villages of Shakhove and Volodymyrivka on the Dobropillya direction, a tactical success if verified. The "Rubizh" brigade's fundraising indicates active recovery efforts and sustained combat operations despite potential equipment losses. The successful SBU detention of a UOC-MP priest for alleged strike adjustment indicates effective UAF counter-intelligence and security readiness. The opening of a new European gauge rail line from Uzhhorod to Budapest/Vienna improves Ukraine's westward transportation and logistical connectivity, enhancing long-term readiness. UAF Air Force reports continued reconnaissance UAV activity by RF in northern Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, indicating UAF maintains vigilance and intelligence gathering capability in these areas. "Оперативний ЗСУ" highlights Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski's strong stance against RF drone incursions into Poland, showcasing strong diplomatic readiness and alignment with NATO allies. The high-profile visit of Prince Harry further boosts UAF's international standing and public morale. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims UAF has moved military aircraft to airfields in Poland and Romania, which, if true, indicates a strategic decision to preserve air assets and maintain combat readiness through dispersal, potentially enhancing long-term readiness and survivability. Germany's call for long-range weapons for strikes on Russia indicates continued efforts to enhance UAF offensive capabilities. Liveuamap Source reports on UAF repelling numerous attacks across multiple axes, confirming continued UAF defensive effectiveness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports successful raid actions by "Morok" assault battalion, 225th Separate Assault Regiment, with drone support, stopping an RF interdiction attempt on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts, highlight UAF small unit tactical effectiveness. STERNENKO reports +280 FPV drones purchased in the last day through public donations, demonstrating strong public support for UAF drone procurement. RBC-Україна supports fundraising for vehicles for the 153rd Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBR), indicating ongoing UAF logistical needs and public support. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares images and videos of a UAF vehicle ("Techik") undergoing repair, indicating maintenance and sustainment efforts, crucial for readiness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the 141st Mechanized Brigade has received Croatian M-84 tanks, indicating continued Western military aid and UAF modernization. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports an ex-commander of a military unit in Lviv Oblast is suspected of million-dollar damages during the purchase of army beds, highlighting UAF internal anti-corruption efforts. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a thermal drone video depicting a Russian soldier attempting to hide from a UAF drone operator (79th Airmobile Brigade), showcasing successful UAF drone hunter-killer operations. Zelenskiy / Official and Oleh Syniehubov, Governor of Kharkiv ODA, share photos celebrating Electronic Warfare (EW) personnel, showing soldiers with EW equipment, highlighting the importance of this capability for UAF. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UAF General Staff) announces a new training course "SEDO: digital document management in the army" for Army+ app users, indicating modernization of administrative procedures. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of Ukrainian snipers eliminating six Russian assault troops on the Toretsk front, Donetsk Oblast. "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares photos regarding the National Police liquidating a scheme for profiting from humanitarian vehicles for UAF in Kyiv, indicating ongoing efforts to combat corruption affecting military aid. "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" confirms a working trip to the Pokrovsk and Dobropillya directions, indicating high-level attention to these critical sectors. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration shares a video about a relocated art school operating in a bomb shelter in Zaporizhzhia, highlighting civilian resilience and educational continuity amidst the conflict. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Staff for POWs) emphasizes support for families of missing persons and those captured, and requests public support to disseminate important messages, indicating continued efforts to address the human impact of the conflict on military families. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF milblogger) video of SSO snipers engaging in close-quarters combat during an assault on enemy trench positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction by SSO snipers, involving grenades and small arms fire in close-quarters combat, highlighting active UAF ground engagements. Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF milblogger) shares video indicating RF is increasingly using FPV "Zhduny" (waiting/ambush drones) in combat, with the video showing a Ukrainian soldier engaging a stationary target. STERNENKO (UAF milblogger) reports on the continued success of the "SKY RUSORIZ" project in downing enemy UAVs, demonstrating persistent UAF counter-UAV capabilities and public support for this effort. "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" shares photo messages celebrating EW personnel on their professional day, highlighting their crucial role. "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" shares photo messages about opening a memorial plaque for fallen defender Oleksandr Dokukin, indicating UAF efforts to honor military personnel. Офіс Генерального прокурора shares a photo message about a "scheme of fictitious employment in 'fake' educational institutions to evade mobilization," indicating UAF efforts to combat draft evasion. Оперативний ЗСУ amplifies Head of Bundestag Defense Committee Thomas Röwekamp stating Russian drones threatening NATO territory should be shot down over Ukraine, indicating a clear allied position. RBC-Україна reports that Ukrainian specialists will train Poles to shoot down drones, but not in Ukraine, indicating continued cooperation on air defense. The Coordination Staff for POWs is holding a meeting with families of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade (UAF) fighters, demonstrating UAF commitment to POW support. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of Ukrainian soldiers from the '3rd Army Corps' operating in a rural environment, including interaction with captured individuals, indicating active offensive/clearing operations. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА share video of a meeting with Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, discussing further support, defense aid, joint weapons production, and EU membership, highlighting continued UAF diplomatic efforts. STERNENKO shares video of the UAF BAS Fenix unit working daily on Russian logistics in Donetsk Oblast, showcasing UAF operational effectiveness against RF supply lines. РБК-Україна reports the State Bureau of Investigation (DBR) has completed its investigation into Ukrainian MP Yevhen Shevchenko for treason and fraud, demonstrating continued UAF anti-corruption efforts. Олександр Вілкул shares multiple photo messages with the caption "ЖИТТЯ ТРИВАЄ!" (Life Continues!), depicting civilian events with traditional Ukrainian attire, a UAF IO effort to boost morale and project normalcy amidst the conflict. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational information as of 16:00, 12.09.2025, maintaining transparency and regular updates on battlefield status. Zelenskiy NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UAF milblogger) makes an urgent appeal for help for "Lyuti" pilots, indicating critical resource needs for UAF drone operations. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares drone footage of a Ukrainian soldier in a trench in a damaged wooded area, indicating active frontline presence and defensive posture. (Confidence: HIGH)
Successes:
Setbacks:
RF Narratives:
UAF Counter-Narratives:
MLCOA 1 (Intensified Ground Offensive and Consolidation of Gains on Key Axes - Pokrovsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Lyman, Kupiansk, Kherson, Sumy, Siverske, Konstantinovka): RF main effort will focus on consolidating and exploiting recent gains.
Confidence: HIGH
MLCOA 2 (Sustained Air/Missile Campaign with Continued Deep Strikes and Homeland Defense Probes): RF will maintain its multi-layered air and missile campaign.
Confidence: HIGH
MLCOA 3 (Aggressive Hybrid Operations and Information Warfare with Escalated Narratives): RF will escalate its multi-domain influence operations.
Confidence: HIGH
MDCOA 1 (Rapid Breakthrough and Encirclement on Lyman/Konstantinovka or Dnipropetrovsk Axes with Massed Combined Arms): RF commits significant second-echelon forces (including newly delivered armor and UGVs) to achieve a rapid, deep breakthrough on one of the critical axes.
Confidence: MEDIUM
MDCOA 2 (Massive, Coordinated Multi-Domain Strike & Strategic Diversion): RF launches a massive, coordinated missile and drone strike against multiple high-value targets across Ukraine, including renewed strikes on Kyiv's administrative and government centers, DIB facilities in Western Ukraine, and simultaneous large-scale conventional ground operations on a secondary axis (e.g., Sumy/Chernihiv border, Kharkiv North) to draw UAF reserves.
Confidence: MEDIUM
Immediate Counter-Infiltration Operations in Kupiansk:
Reinforce and Stabilize Lyman and Dnipropetrovsk Axes:
Expedited Counter-UGV Doctrine and Training:
Enhanced Civilian Protection and Accountability for War Crimes:
Proactive Information Environment Management:
//END REPORT//
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