Situation Report

SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - 121700Z SEP 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (Confidence: HIGH)

RF forces maintain multi-axis pressure, with an emphasis on the Pokrovsk axis where urban combat continues in Muravka and Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). RF forces of the "Vostok" Grouping have "liberated" Sosnovka and Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, aiming to enhance encirclement of a UAF grouping in Velykomykhailivka. Combat is reported south of Stepnohirsk with active RF aviation support. On the Lyman axis, RF claims to be assaulting Zarechnoye and reports activity near Kolodyazi. Colonelcassad reports RF forces have established control over Kolodyazi and are advancing on the Krasny Liman direction. TASS further reports RF troops have "practically dislodged" UAF from Kirovsk on the Krasny Liman direction, with UAF suffering heavy losses, which, if true, would significantly consolidate RF control over this sector. Intense combat continues near Krasny Liman, DPR, with the RF 103rd Regiment advancing towards Konstantinovka, now reportedly 7 km from the city. On the Siverske direction, RF forces claim control of approximately 50% of Pereyizne and advances in the Kremensky forests, taking control of approximately 3 km of the administrative border. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports the 88th Assault Brigade has successfully assaulted and captured an enemy stronghold near Fedorovka on the Siverske direction, using 122mm artillery. RF UAVs are establishing "fire control" over UAF logistical routes near Krasny Liman and Izium-Barvinkove, and claim control of 1.5 km of a supply route in Kupyansk. RF claims "liberation" of Zelenyi Hai and fighting for Torske, indicating sustained offensive operations on the Lyman direction. RF forces have "expelled the enemy from Katerynivka" and continue to advance in the Konstantinovka direction, near Kleban-Byk and Pleshcheyevka, maintaining pressure on this critical UAF defensive axis. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) reports RF forces are advancing towards Konstantinovka, breaking through enemy defenses near Predtechino and Pleshcheyevka, confirming continued pressure on the Konstantinovka axis. Offensive action near Chasiv Yar involves airborne units engaging enemy infantry. Рыбарь (RF milblogger) provides a tactical analysis video documenting RF offensive operations and territorial gains in the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd agglomeration area between 24 AUG and 10 SEP 25, confirming sustained pressure and advances. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" (UAF milblogger) claims Ukrainian Defense Forces (СОУ) have "cleared and liberated" the villages of Shakhove and Volodymyrivka on the Dobropillya direction. This, if verified, represents a UAF tactical success and potentially reverses some RF gains. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" (RF milblogger) projects the Special Military Operation (SVO) will conclude in 2027 with the capture of Odesa and Mykolaiv, indicating long-term RF strategic aspirations. TASS reports Russian forces have "practically dislodged" UAF from the settlement of Novomykolaivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, according to Russian security forces. This is a new and significant claim, indicating further RF advances and expansion of the Dnipropetrovsk salient. "Z комитет + карта СВО" shares multiple map images showing advances around Velykomykhailivka and Novoivanivka, reinforcing RF claims of continued pressure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Novopavlivka direction. DeepState map update indicates changes, requiring further analysis for specifics. "Два майора" (RF milblogger) and "Сливочный каприз" (RF milblogger) reinforce claims of RF capture of Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, providing video evidence of artillery strikes and claimed M-777 destruction, with "Vostok" Grouping involved. "Сливочный каприз" shares video showing drone footage of a settlement under artillery bombardment (likely Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk area, identified by caption 12.09.25 Красноармейска - Октябрьское(Шахово)), and now also Krasnoarmeysk - Vladimirovka (12.09.25). "Воин DV" (RF milblogger) shares drone footage of operators from the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, "Vostok" Grouping, engaged in active military activity targeting a dark-colored vehicle and what appears to be a motorcycle or smaller vehicle, followed by thermal imaging of multiple targets, explosions, and muzzle flashes, with individuals (likely soldiers) moving in the environment. This suggests active RF FPV drone operations and engagement of UAF light vehicles/personnel. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF milblogger) shares video depicting a coordinated assault on enemy trench positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction by SSO snipers, involving grenades and small arms fire in close-quarters combat, highlighting active UAF ground engagements. New video from БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows Ukrainian soldiers from the '3rd Army Corps' in a rural environment conducting tactical movements, RPG use, and interaction with captured individuals, indicating active offensive/clearing operations. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) also shows a video from Bryansk-Chernihiv direction where "border guards" are destroying UAF equipment, infantry, and positions, including mortar positions, a fuel station, and communications antenna. This indicates active RF operations against UAF on border areas. Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF milblogger) reports that the "Shkval" battalion of the "Skelya" regiment conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF milblogger) reports the appearance of Russian FPV drones in the central part of Kramatorsk. Военкор Котенок (RF milblogger) shares aerial footage of Vovchansk showing widespread destruction and smoke plumes, attributed to combat on the Kharkiv direction. NEW: "Рыбарь" shares a map detailing RF forces "taking the East," specifically highlighting active ground combat on the eastern front (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares a photo of RF airborne troops on the Konstantinovka direction, indicating continued RF pressure in this sector (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: "Воин DV" shares drone footage displaying aerial reconnaissance over urban and rural environments, showing military vehicles (trucks, ATV) with camouflage/protective measures, interspersed with Russian propaganda emblems and slogans. (Confidence: HIGH)

GSU reports indicate a significant concentration of RF forces and 130 combat engagements over the past 24 hours on the Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka, and Shakhtarske directions, with UAF repelling numerous attacks. RF is attempting to advance near Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, and claims to have repelled a UAF counterattack on the left bank of the Vovcha River, occupying four technical buildings. RF Special Forces (14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, "Sida" detachment of AHMAT, "Anvar" detachment) are actively supporting ground assaults on the South Donetsk direction and conducting precision strikes against UAF artillery on the Sumy direction, with "Anvar" operating in buffer zones along the Kharkiv and Chernihiv borders. RF is reportedly bringing up reserves to Vovchansk. The Kherson-Mykolaiv highway is claimed to be under RF fire control. UAF forces successfully destroyed a bridge over the Siverskyi Donets river near Nova Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, Russia, using FPV drones and pre-planted mines, disrupting RF logistical movement. Widespread destruction in Vovchansk confirms heavy combat and significant damage. RF forces continue FPV drone operations targeting UAF logistics and personnel across multiple sectors. Drone footage indicates RF strikes on trenches, a command post, and a communications tower on the Rubtsovsk direction, with suggested electronic warfare activity against "STARLINK." RF forces are actively countering UAF attempts to regain Udachnoye, displaying a presence in previously contested structures. RF "Молния-2" UAVs reportedly struck a UAF temporary deployment point (PVD) in Sumy Oblast. RF UAV operators are disrupting UAF rotations in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF reports one civilian killed in Polohy Raion due to enemy attacks. Oleg Sinegubov, Governor of Kharkiv Oblast, reports 18 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were subjected to enemy attacks over the past day, confirming widespread and persistent RF pressure in the region. "Воин DV" (RF milblogger) shares thermal drone footage of 35th Army Special Forces (Vostok Grouping) targeting UAF personnel with FPV drones and grenade drops in the Polohy direction, indicating continued RF FPV drone effectiveness and localized ground pressure. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" (RF milblogger) shares video of army aviation operations in Kharkiv Oblast, Iziumskyi district, near Borovska Andriyivka, targeting areas in support of the 1st Tank Army's assault units, indicating concentrated RF air support for ground advances in this sector. "Народная милиция ДНР" shares video of RF 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (ORB) destroying UAF communications antenna/Starlink in a rural area, confirming continued RF counter-C2 efforts. Liveuamap Source reports on daily clashes across South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv), Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, and Kherson directions, with UAF repelling numerous attacks, underscoring the widespread nature of combat. Colonelcassad reports FPV drone operators from "Sparta" battalion, 51st Guards Combined Arms Army, destroyed two UAF UAV control points and a communication antenna near Dimitrov. This is a significant claim regarding counter-UAF C2. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that during raid actions by "Morok" assault battalion, 225th Separate Assault Regiment, in the rear of the RF 810th Brigade, remote mining by "Pentagon" pilots stopped an RF attempt to intercept UAF. This suggests effective UAF counter-interdiction and FPV drone support for ground operations. Oleg Sinegubov, Governor of Kharkiv Oblast, reports RF attacked a civilian vehicle with a drone in Shevchenkivska community, confirming continued RF targeting of civilian transport. MoD Russia reports 215th Combined Arms Army's motorised rifle regiment (Zapad Group of Forces) conducting drills with AGS-17 Plamya at a training ground in the SVO zone, indicating continued RF combat training and the importance of AGS-17. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) reports "Работайте братья" showing "our little birds" (drones) invading Hryshyno, suggesting active RF drone operations in that area (likely Pokrovsk axis). "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares a thermal drone video depicting a Russian soldier attempting to hide from a UAF drone operator (79th Airmobile Brigade), indicating active UAF drone hunter-killer operations and highlighting RF vulnerability. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shares thermal imaging drone footage of a convoy attacked on a dirt road, which the caption attributes to "Anvar" special forces hunting UAF equipment and militants, supporting the Sumy offensive. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of Ukrainian snipers eliminating six Russian assault troops on the Toretsk front, Donetsk Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF milblogger) shares video indicating RF is increasingly using FPV "Zhduny" (waiting/ambush drones) in combat, with the video showing a Ukrainian soldier engaging a stationary target. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts videos showcasing new Russian "Kurier" (Courier) unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) with machine guns and mine-laying capabilities, and 'Fagot' remote-controlled robotic platforms with autocannons and mine-laying systems, indicating advanced robotic combat deployments. Colonelcassad reports on a destroyed dark-colored vehicle and a damaged two-story building (possibly a temporary deployment point, PVD) in Sumy Oblast, with three units of enemy (UAF) automotive equipment destroyed, attributed to Russian operators. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares video of a captured hexacopter "Baba Yaga" being operated by RF forces against its former owners, showcasing adaptive use of captured UAF equipment. Kadyrov_95 shares video footage of the 78th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Sever-Akhmat" conducting artillery strikes on enemy positions, demonstrating active combat operations. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares FPV drone footage showing a truck on a dirt road in a wooded area, indicating active RF reconnaissance and targeting operations in the Iziumskyi district of Kharkiv Oblast. NEW: "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares video showing a UAF MiG-29 conducting an aerial attack, described as "master class on dismantling the invaders' battalion headquarters" in Zaporizhzhia (Confidence: MEDIUM). NEW: "STERNENKO" shares drone footage indicating successful strikes by the 100th Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBr) against an RF tank, armored fighting vehicle (BBBM), and personnel. The video also shows extensive damage to urban areas. (Confidence: HIGH)

Deep strikes persist on Ukrainian energy, industrial, and civilian infrastructure across 15 oblasts. Confirmed damage to the Sumy Oblast Administration (OVA) building, Ukrainian Government Headquarters in Kyiv, Sokil ice arena, Cabinet of Ministers building, and the Trypilska TPP. The death toll from the aviation bomb strike on Yarova, Donetsk Oblast, has risen to 25. Civilian casualties and damage from combined missile and drone attacks are confirmed in Vinnytsia (31 injured), Khmelnytskyi (sewing factory destroyed, 3 injured), Zhytomyr (1 killed, 5 injured), and Kramatorsk (central square, residential areas, market hit by drones). An energy object in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast has been hit by drones. Zaporizhzhia suffered a drone attack on a residential building, injuring two civilians, with four additional wounded reported from attacks on Prymorske and Zaporizhzhia. The 68-year-old man severely injured in a drone strike on Prymorske yesterday has died in hospital. Mykolaiv has experienced drone threats and explosions. Berdychiv (Zhytomyr Oblast) was hit by missile strikes. An enemy strike on an educational institution and the Holy Resurrection Cathedral in Sumy is confirmed. A "Shahed" drone hit one of Chernihiv's enterprises, causing a fire. Strikes on Nikopol region continued all day, affecting Nikopol, Marhanets, Pokrovsk, Myrove, and Chervonohryhorivka communities with artillery and drones. Acting Mayor of Sumy, Artem Kobzar, confirms two drone strikes on a non-residential building in Sumy, with casualty information being clarified. RBC-Ukraine reports RF struck a "promyslova zona" (industrial zone) on the outskirts of Sumy with drones. Explosions and a significant fire are reported at an oil depot in Smolensk Oblast and Primorsk port in Leningrad Oblast, attributed to UAF drone attacks. RBC-Ukraine reports an update, confirming one security guard killed under the rubble in Sumy. RBC-Ukraine reports RF launched missiles at Sumy Oblast, causing fatalities and destruction in residential areas, confirming continued RF missile targeting of civilian populations. RBC-Ukraine reports 2 people killed and 5 houses destroyed in a village in Sumy Oblast due to RF strike. ASTRA reports three people killed after a Russian attack in Sumy Oblast, as confirmed by local authorities. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports two people killed and five injured in the village of Bytytsia, Sumy Oblast, as a result of a missile strike, confirming the ASTRA report and specifying the location. STERNENKO (UAF milblogger) and Sumy Oblast Military Administration (OVA) confirm one person killed in Sumy due to RF drone strike this morning. "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" reports "Another tragedy in Nikopol region, caused by enemy terror." The accompanying images, however, do not show military targets or direct damage, but rather a neglected civilian vehicle. This implies an ongoing, if less severe, impact on civilian life from RF actions, though the immediate assessment of the photos indicates no direct military significance. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares video of an alleged UAV strike on a Transneft oil pumping station "Vtorovo" in Vladimir Oblast, Russia, if verified, this represents a significant expansion of UAF deep strike range and target type. Colonelcassad reports FAB guided aerial bomb strikes on UAF positions in Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, indicating continued RF use of KABs on rear areas. TASS reports 1 killed, 6 wounded in Kherson Oblast due to UAF shelling, which RF will use for IO. ASTRA reports the woman killed in Belgorod this morning died from the impact of a "Pantsir" air defense missile booster, confirming RF air defense malfunction/collateral damage and contradicting earlier RF claims. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports an "explosive morning" in Leningrad Oblast, with videos of explosions, reinforcing previous UAF deep strike claims. Colonelcassad provides a "chronicle of strikes on Ukraine" for 11-12 September, indicating ongoing RF analysis and reporting of its own strike activities. "Alex Parker Returns" shares video of an alleged strike on a fuel object in Vladimir Oblast, further supporting the claim of a UAF deep strike on a Transneft oil pumping station and commenting on the lack of RF air defense. "Север.Реалии" reports that the woman killed in Belgorod was killed by a "Pantsir" air defense missile booster, reaffirming the ASTRA report. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's video highlights restoration work on energy facilities, construction of protective structures for transformers, and winter preparations in Zaporizhzhia, following enemy attacks. TASS reports a UAF drone attacked the Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant, hitting ancillary facilities and breaking several windows, but not affecting safety. Colonelcassad reports a UAF drone attack on the Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) and "Военкор Котенок" also amplify the claim of UAF attacking the Smolensk NPP, framing it as "nuclear terrorism." ASTRA, citing SBU sources, confirms the strike on Primorsk oil loading port. Росатом (RF State Nuclear Energy Corporation) reports no damage to critical infrastructure at the Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant, only minor damage to a fence and an administrative building from a Ukrainian drone. This contradicts previous reports of ancillary facilities being hit, reducing the scope of potential damage and RF's previous claims of "nuclear terrorism" framing. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UAF milblogger) provides an analysis of the alleged UAF UAV strike on the Transneft oil pumping station "Vtorovo," concluding that a "Lyutyy" UAV hit a technological overpass with pipelines, signal, and power cables. This provides specific BDA and target information, increasing the confidence in the success and impact of the strike. ASTRA reports that two berths and an oil tanker were damaged in the Primorsk oil loading port after a UAV attack, providing additional BDA for the UAF deep strike. NEW: TASS reports the body of a third deceased person was discovered on Elbrus after a cable car accident, a civilian incident (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: TASS reports one teenager died and two were injured in a pit bike collision with a truck in Stavropol, a civilian incident (Confidence: HIGH).

Reports indicate at least eight explosions in occupied Donetsk, with TASS claiming UAF missile attacks repelled. Mash on Donbas reports power outages in Kyivskyi district of Donetsk and damaged windows in a traumatology hospital and nearby residential buildings, with a new video claiming a multi-apartment building in Donetsk was hit, "presumably by NATO MLRS." UAF FPV drones reportedly attacked a civilian vehicle near Polyana, Starodubsky Municipal District, Belgorod Oblast, Russia. ASTRA reports 6 people were injured in attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Belgorod Oblast, with a Pyaterochka supermarket among the affected targets. An ammunition depot in occupied Luhansk is also reported to be exploding due to UAF drone strikes. An attack by over 30 UAVs was repelled in three municipalities of Rostov Oblast, causing damage to a private house and two cars, but no casualties. A massive drone attack was launched on Leningrad Oblast overnight, with a fire reported on a vessel in Primorsk port, which has since been extinguished. ASTRA reports a fire on a pumping station in Primorsk was also extinguished, without casualties. TASS reports one person killed and 24 injured over two days in Belgorod Oblast from UAF attacks. Russian MoD claims to have shot down 221 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions overnight, with 9 of them over the Moscow region. Russian Governor Gladkov (Belgorod Oblast) reports 1 killed, 24 injured in Belgorod Oblast over two days from UAF attacks. Bryansk Oblast Governor reports UAF strikes on a passenger minibus, injuring 5 people, including 2 "Bars-Bryansk" fighters. WarGonzo further clarifies seven people wounded in a mass drone attack on Bryansk Oblast. Mash on Donbas reports a large traffic jam towards Khartsyzk due to an accident, with a military-style truck present, potentially indicating local logistical disruption or increased security measures for RF forces. Поддубный (RF milblogger) reports two people killed in Belgorod Oblast due to UAF drone attacks over the past three days, specifically mentioning a woman killed this morning in Belgorod city, and overall 24 injured, reiterating and amplifying previous reports of civilian casualties. ASTRA reports the mayor of Belgorod confirms a woman killed by a UAF strike in Belgorod. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (UAF milblogger) shares graphic video footage depicting the aftermath of what appears to be an artillery strike in a rural area, showing multiple deceased and dismembered individuals. The context implies high-casualty combat or indiscriminate targeting of personnel, further underscoring the brutality of the conflict. RBC-Ukraine reports that SBU drones have hit the Primorsk port, leading to suspension of oil shipments. This is a significant claim regarding the impact on RF energy exports. Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF milblogger) reports a shootout with two fatalities occurred in an auto service office in Lviv Oblast, confirming an internal security incident. Басурин о главном (RF milblogger) shares a map depicting alleged Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian regions outside the SVO zone, claiming "terrorist war against civilians." Maria Zakharova (RF MFA spokesperson) confirms RF's narrative of Ukrainian "terrorist war" against Russian civilians, citing specific incidents in Belgorod, Bryansk, Moscow, and Voronezh regions, as well as alleged shelling in DPR/LPR. RBC-Україна reports on the possibility of a nuclear accident at the "Neutron Source" facility in Kharkiv due to RF strikes. Mash on Donbas reports that a house in Makeyevka, DPR, previously damaged, has now been declared unsafe. TASS reports two people, a married couple, were killed in a cable car accident on Elbrus, in Russia, a civilian incident.

UAV activity remains extremely high. UAF Air Force reports 62 of 66 enemy UAV targets were shot down/suppressed overnight. Groups of enemy UAVs are entering southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast from Temporarily Occupied Territories (TOT), course - north/northwest, and additional KABs are launched on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. RF claims destruction of 225 Ukrainian UAVs, one Neptune guided missile, and three HIMARS MLRS rockets over the past day. RF reconnaissance UAVs are active in the Black Sea towards Odesa and in Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts. RF drones are confirmed active across central, western, and northern Ukraine. UAF Air Force reports guided aerial bombs launched on Donetsk Oblast and Sumy Oblast. A RF kamikaze drone "Upyr" was reported engaging a UAF interceptor drone near Prykolotne, Kharkiv. UAF 'Lazar' unit utilized FPV drones to destroy a bridge near Nova Tavolzhanka. A Ukrainian "Yozhka" drone was reportedly shot down near Lyman. Reconnaissance UAVs are reported in central Chernihiv Oblast. A captured Ukrainian reconnaissance drone ("Shark") was showcased, claimed to be destroyed by RF "Fever" fighters. UAF thermal imaging drone video shows a series of artillery strikes impacting Russian military positions in Kharkiv direction. RF drone footage showcases identification and engagement of various enemy assets including a pickup truck, a Leopard-1 tank, artillery, an unknown vehicle, and a 'BABA-YAGA' drone. UAF General Staff reports RF combat losses over the last 24 hours include 890 personnel. UAF General Staff reports 890 RF personnel eliminated over the past 24 hours (Sept 11-12). UAF General Staff provides a tactical map analysis of enemy failed attempts to advance. RF milblogger Colonelcassad presents video of FPV drone operations targeting UAF transport in forest belts of Chernihiv Oblast. Ukrainian Defense Forces (DSHV) share video of RF "motorcycle assaults," depicting both RF tactics and UAF counter-engagement. UAF Air Force reports 33 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed, indicating continued air defense effectiveness against persistent RF drone attacks. RBC-Ukraine reports RF launched 40 drones overnight, including 20 Shaheds, with 33 shot down. RF milblogger Colonelcassad presents video evidence of RF snipers successfully downing Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" heavy strike drones on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. UAF 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" shares video of new advanced UAVs being deployed. Colonelcassad reports 221 Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted and destroyed by RF air defense overnight. This is a significant claim, almost matching the previous RF MOD claim. ASTRA reports the Ukrainian Air Force states Russia attacked with 40 drones overnight. UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity in northern Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, indicating continued ISR pressure on the northern border. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports air strike warnings for Zaporizhzhia, indicating continued aerial threat. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares multiple videos depicting night-time explosions and missile trails, including an alleged UAV strike on Primorsk Port and a significant explosion in an urban/industrial area, reinforcing UAF deep strike claims. "Повітряні Сиили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports new reconnaissance UAV activity on the north of Chernihiv and east of Sumy Oblasts, indicating persistent RF ISR. Kotsnews reports RF is testing a "heavy drone evading EW," potentially indicating new RF drone development. "Два майора" shares an image of an alleged Ukrainian drone payload, implying UAF drone attacks. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports no information on destruction or casualties at 101, 102, 103, regarding current air raid activity in Zaporizhzhia. This confirms ongoing vigilance but no confirmed impact yet. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shares video titled "Работайте братья" depicting RF drone operations, indicating active deployment of UAVs. Kotsnews shares drone footage of an artillery impact, showing a soldier moving through smoky terrain, underscoring ongoing combat. "Два майора" shares video of a Russian exhibition of UAVs and counter-drone technologies ("Дронница"), suggesting a significant investment in developing drone capabilities. MoD Russia reports that from 6 to 12 September, RF conducted one massive and six group strikes against Ukrainian defense industry, transport, and energy infrastructure, military airfields, and depots. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares new video footage from a drone's perspective, showing active combat operations with explosions and destruction of military vehicles in wooded and open areas, indicating continued RF drone surveillance and targeting. STERNENKO (UAF milblogger) reports 5 more enemy UAVs shot down, sharing drone footage of a small, white, fixed-wing UAV ("SKY RUSORIZ") flying over a rural area, indicating ongoing UAF counter-UAV efforts and potential fundraising for this project. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports a threat of aviation munition use in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykove district). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a strike UAV in northern Kherson Oblast moving southwest. Colonelcassad reports a hexacopter "Baba Yaga" was shot down by "Viking" operators with one precise strike, showing continued RF counter-UAV efforts. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a threat of aviation munitions use for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. NEW: "Военкор Котенок" shares photo of wreckage of a Ukrainian Su-27, claimed to be shot down yesterday in Zaporizhzhia (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: "Военкор Котенок" provides an immediate assessment of the wreckage (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the air raid alert has been lifted for Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: MoD Russia shares a video of Russian military personnel preparing and deploying a multi-rotor drone in a dry, grassy field, suggesting reconnaissance or surveillance. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: MoD Russia reports that in Dnepropetrovsk region, operators of the Vostok Group's UAVs successfully overwhelmed control channels of an enemy heavy hexacopter. (Confidence: HIGH)

Ukrainian HUR (Main Intelligence Directorate) units successfully struck and disabled an RF Black Sea Fleet vessel (Project MPSV07) near Novorossiysk. Russian channels are circulating video of a missile attack on artillery depots of RF's "Dnipro" Grouping of Forces located in Sonyachna Dolyna near Sudak in occupied Crimea. Ukrainian "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares multiple videos and text suggesting successful UAF drone attacks causing fires and explosions in Smolensk and Leningrad Oblasts, including a LUKOIL facility and Primorsk. The 46th Separate Airmobile Podilsky Brigade of the UAF DSHV shares photos celebrating a soldier who "burned 16 tanks and returned every time after being wounded," an internal UAF morale-boosting message. Colonelcassad shares video claiming an optical fiber FPV drone "VT-40" destroyed a storage site of 155mm M203A1 propelling charges, with a stated range of 30km. This, if verified, demonstrates effective RF counter-battery intelligence and drone-based targeting of UAF artillery logistics. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" and TASS report new batches of BMP-3s with enhanced protection kits and BMD-2s (after overhaul and modernization) have been delivered to RF troops, indicating sustained military production and improved armored vehicle capabilities. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) provides a series of photos under the caption "#Филия," which are tactical map screenshots of the Novopavlovsk direction. These images appear to depict Russian advances and territorial control in this area, indicating ongoing offensive operations or consolidation of gains, though the specific details of the map legend and symbols are not fully discernable without further context. "Воин DV" (RF milblogger) provides video footage claiming the "liberation" of Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by "Vostok" Grouping, with supporting drone footage of artillery strikes and claimed M-777 destruction. TASS provides video of Northern Fleet deployments for "West-2025" exercises, showcasing frigates, destroyers, and submarines, highlighting large-scale naval activity. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shares video of alleged liberation of Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by RF MOD, reinforcing Colonelcassad's claim. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the 141st Mechanized Brigade has received Croatian M-84 tanks, indicating continued Western military aid and UAF modernization. TASS reports the Pacific Fleet has started planned exercises with nuclear submarines and Bastion coastal missile systems, indicating further large-scale RF naval exercises. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares video of a military chaplain interacting with soldiers, offering spiritual support in combat zones, indicating efforts to boost morale through religious means. MoD Russia shares video of Northern Fleet forces deployed in near-shore and off-shore maritime zones for Zapad 2025, confirming naval component of the exercises. "Сливочный каприз" shares charts indicating the "Pace of offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces in the SMO zone," claiming advances of up to 40 km² per day, providing RF's internal assessment of offensive tempo. Colonelcassad reports an ongoing criminal case against former head of RF Ministry of Defense military representation, Andrei Tyurin, for abuse of power in state defense orders. "Сливочный каприз" shares drone footage of a settlement under artillery bombardment (Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk area), confirming continued ground pressure. "Воин DV" comments on Ukraine's delayed admission of territorial losses, indicating RF's view of UAF's information control. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF milblogger) shares video showing armored personnel carriers (APCs) or infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) moving in formation through wooded and open terrain, an attack helicopter (Ka-52 or Mi-28) in flight, a Tu-160 strategic bomber on a runway, and naval operations with warships, a hovercraft, and a submarine, with the caption "Кадры начала учений "Запад-2025"", confirming the commencement of large-scale military exercises involving multiple RF service branches. "Два майора" (RF milblogger) shares a video featuring three Russian soldiers expressing gratitude for donations of an armored vehicle and batteries, suggesting direct support for their operations. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" (RF milblogger) makes a public appeal for donations for "desantniks" (airborne troops). Colonelcassad posts a video about a "Collection for the 4th auto column," showcasing the restoration and modification of a civilian vehicle (likely a Niva) with military-inspired paint and "Z" symbols, indicating ongoing volunteer efforts to supply vehicles for RF forces. "Воин DV" shares a video from the Zaporizhzhia direction featuring a soldier with the callsign "Kizovsky," showing the work of an evacuation group under fire, including destroyed military equipment and bodies of deceased soldiers, with a Turkish self-loading rifle (AKdal MKA-1919) identified in the footage. This highlights intense combat and ongoing efforts to retrieve casualties and equipment. "Старше Эдды" shares a video titled "Svoi. Douglas — Cortes: on the work of reactive artillery and loyalty to the Russian army," which likely features RF reactive artillery in action and promotes loyalty narratives. "Старше Эдды" also shares a video from Senior Lieutenant Ivan Kurbatov of the 90th Tank Division, from a tank in a combat zone, delivering a patriotic message to Moscow. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video depicting Ukrainian soldiers carrying a body on a stretcher through wooded and open terrain, implying ongoing casualty evacuation operations. NEW: "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares a video showing a UAF MiG-29 conducting an aerial attack, described as "master class on dismantling the invaders' battalion headquarters" in Zaporizhzhia. The video includes thermal imaging and explosions, and concludes with destroyed military equipment (Confidence: MEDIUM). NEW: "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares a video depicting drone thermal imaging footage of a moving vehicle at night, with a crosshair reticle, suggesting active surveillance or targeting. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "Игорь Артамонов" shares video depicting civilian development projects, including school construction and kindergarten renovation, unrelated to military operations. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "Басурин о главном" shares video of a Russian Ministry of Defense meeting discussing economical management principles and digitalization, featuring Shoigu and Belousov, focused on internal efficiency. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "Два майора" shares video of mobile groups of marine special forces with FPV drones protecting the coast of Crimea from uncrewed surface vessels (BEC) and other threats at night, showing drone deployment and monitoring. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad shares video of Lada Niva vehicles being painted in matte green camouflage, indicating ongoing volunteer efforts to supply modified civilian vehicles for RF forces. (Confidence: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (Confidence: HIGH)

Conditions remained generally clear and favorable for air operations, including missile and UAV strikes across most of Ukraine. Localized heavy rainfall caused significant flooding in Kyiv. Expected thunderstorms in Kharkiv could temporarily impact local air operations. Storm weather is reported in Donetsk. RF tactical aviation is actively launching KABs on Sumy, Donetsk, and northern Kharkiv Oblasts. A ballistic missile threat from the northeast has been reported and subsequently lifted for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reconnaissance UAVs are active in the Black Sea towards Odesa and in Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts. RF drones are confirmed active across central, western, and northern Ukraine. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is under missile threat, with drone attacks confirmed on Synelnykove. A nationwide air raid alert was active due to the launch of an RF MiG-31K, a carrier of the "Kinzhal" aeroballistic missile, which was subsequently lifted. Fields and dry grass caught fire on the outskirts of Yenakiieve, potentially impacting visibility. Over 201 hectares of Kharkiv Oblast territory demined in a week. Krasnodar airport has reopened for civilian flights for the first time since the start of the war, indicating an improving logistical environment in southern RF. A Mi-8 helicopter made a hard landing in Kaliningrad due to bad weather. Poland has closed its border with Belarus, with military personnel deploying barricades and concertina wire. Air defense forces are active against UAVs over the southwestern part of Leningrad Oblast, and Pulkovo airport has implemented a "Carpet" plan (airspace closure). Enemy UAVs are detected in eastern Sumy Oblast, moving west. Additional UAVs heading towards Moscow have been destroyed. Pulkovo airport has warned of possible schedule adjustments. Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation are reported in Sumy Oblast. Enemy strike UAVs are detected in the Kakhovka region (Kherson Oblast), moving towards Mykolaiv Oblast. Over 20 UAVs have been destroyed over Leningrad Oblast, with debris fall recorded in Tosno. Enemy drones are approaching Kharkiv from the east. Air defense is active in Kyiv Oblast. Restrictions have been imposed in the airports of Ivanovo, Pskov, Yaroslavl, and St. Petersburg overnight. Enemy UAVs are detected in the northeastern part of Sumy Oblast. An explosion has been heard in Sumy, followed by several more explosions amidst drone activity. A ballistic missile threat from Kursk Oblast has been issued and subsequently lifted. The fire on a vessel in Primorsk port has been extinguished. "West-2025" joint exercises of Belarusian and Russian armed forces have started on training grounds in both countries and in the Baltic and Barents Seas. TASS reports "Pobeda" airline is adjusting flight schedules due to temporary restrictions at Pulkovo airport and Leningrad Oblast airspace, with some flights delayed. ASTRA reports 28 flights delayed, 13 cancelled, and 11 diverted at Pulkovo airport due to drone attacks. UAF Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by RF tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. TASS reports that flight restrictions have been lifted at the airports of Ivanovo and Yaroslavl. TASS reports that flight service for departures has resumed at Pulkovo airport. UAF Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by RF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast, indicating persistent air support for ground operations. "Север.Реалии" reports Pskov Governor has moved information about drone attacks to the state messenger Max, possibly indicating increased sensitivity or control over public information regarding deep strikes. "Новости Москвы" reports geomagetic disturbances from a new coronal hole may last up to 6 days, which could potentially impact satellite communications or other electronic systems. "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" issues an air raid alert and "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports KABs on Zaporizhzhia, indicating continued RF use of guided aerial bombs in the area, likely for close air support of ground operations. TASS reports earthquake in Bishkek, likely unrelated to conflict, but can serve as a distraction for RF population. TASS reports Pskov airport restrictions have been lifted, indicating a return to normalcy for this civilian air hub, previously impacted by UAF deep strikes. TASS and Новости Москвы report a record dry start to autumn in Moscow, which could impact agriculture and increase fire risk, but has no direct military significance at this time. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports the air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia city has been lifted, but missile danger for the region persists, indicating localized and ongoing threats. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports the air raid alert has been fully lifted, indicating a temporary cessation of immediate aerial threats in the region. UAF Air Force reports enemy attack UAVs heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast from northern Kherson Oblast. TASS reports the Northern Fleet has deployed forces in the Arctic Ocean for "West-2025" exercises. Germany's MFA summoned the Russian ambassador regarding the drone incident in Poland, highlighting the diplomatic severity of these events. Mash on Donbas reports explosions over Donetsk and active air defense, indicating continued aerial threats in the occupied territories. TASS reports Aeroflot has opened ticket sales for direct flights from Krasnodar for international programs, confirming further normalization of air travel from this southern RF hub. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" issues a threat of aviation munition use in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykove district). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a threat of aviation munitions use for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Новости Москвы reports anticipated frosts down to -2°C in some areas of Moscow region, which could impact ground operations and personnel comfort in the coming days. STERNENKO (UAF milblogger) reports that Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania have partially closed their airspace, indicating a direct response to recent RF drone incursions and heightened regional security. NEW: "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" reports the air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: ASTRA reports that Lithuania and Estonia have closed their airspace for the duration of the Russian-Belarusian military exercises "West-2025." (Confidence: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (Confidence: HIGH)

• RF:

  • Ground Forces: RF continues its multi-axis ground offensive, notably on the Pokrovsk axis (Chynyshyn, Muravka, Krasnoarmeysk), Novopavlivka, Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, South Slobozhansky (Vovchansk), and Kupyansk directions. The "Vostok" Grouping has liberated Sosnovka and Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, aiming to encircle UAF in Velykomykhailivka. Specific units involved include marine infantry, "Somali" battalion elements, and the RF 103rd Regiment. "Otvazhnye" units are heavily engaged near Pokrovsk. TASS reports RF forces have taken control of approximately 50% of Pereyizne, south of Siversk, DPR. RF has introduced 'Kur'er' robotic complexes and "Veterok" fiber-optic drones. "Anvar" special forces are active near the Sumy/Chernihiv border, clearing buffer zones. Rosgvardia has been armed with tank and anti-tank guns, self-propelled artillery, and MLRS, and has executed over 60,000 fire and tactical missions. The RF 238th Brigade claims to have destroyed a UAF UAV control post in Berestok. "Terminator" tank support fighting vehicles are training in a rear area. Rosgvardia has recreated tank units and significantly increased artillery firepower. Assault groups of the 20th Army are undergoing combat training. "West-AHMAT" battalion (RF MoD) and Russian Internal Affairs Ministry (OMVD) personnel, along with the RF 128th Brigade, are engaged in combat operations in the Vovchansk area, Kharkiv direction, using FPV drones. RF forces have "expelled the enemy from Katerynivka" and continue to advance in the Konstantinovka direction, near Kleban-Byk and Pleshcheyevka, and on the Borovskoe direction. Combat is confirmed in the vicinity of Konstantinovka. Airborne units are engaging enemy infantry near Chasiv Yar. RF forces are operating on the Rubtsovsk direction, conducting strikes on trenches, a command post, and a communications tower, with suggested electronic warfare activity. RF forces are actively engaging UAF attempts to regain Udachnoye, utilizing drone-guided strikes. "Молния-2" UAVs from Tula paratroopers reportedly hit a UAF temporary deployment point (PVD) in Sumy Oblast. The "Pyatnashka" International Brigade is active in reconnaissance and artillery roles. FPV drone crews of the RF 68th Motorized Rifle Division are conducting ambushes on UAF transport in Kharkiv Oblast. RF UAV operators are disrupting UAF rotations in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The RF 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (Vostok Grouping) is conducting reconnaissance operations in the South Donetsk direction. The 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment is reported to be advancing on the Sumy front, near Yunakovka, utilizing drones for reconnaissance and targeting. Colonelcassad claims RF forces have established control over Kolodyazi and are advancing on the Krasny Liman direction. TASS reports RF troops have "practically dislodged" UAF from Kirovsk on the Krasny Liman direction, indicating a potential significant territorial gain. RF airborne assault troops (DSHV) are reportedly using motorcycles in combat, as depicted in Ukrainian intelligence video. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) reports RF forces are advancing towards Konstantinovka, breaking through enemy defenses near Predtechino and Pleshcheyevka. "Воин DV" (RF milblogger) shares thermal drone footage of 35th Army Special Forces (Vostok Grouping) targeting UAF personnel with FPV drones and grenade drops in the Polohy direction. WarGonzo (RF milblogger) provides a tactical analysis of the Sumy Front, indicating sustained RF interest and potential for further advances. RF snipers are actively engaged in counter-drone operations, specifically against UAF "Baba Yaga" heavy strike drones on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. Colonelcassad shares video claiming an optical fiber FPV drone "VT-40" destroyed a storage site of 155mm M203A1 propelling charges, with a stated range of 30km. This, if verified, demonstrates effective RF counter-battery intelligence and drone-based targeting of UAF artillery logistics. Рыбарь (RF milblogger) reports a "breakthrough to New Shakhovo and Myrnograd," providing a map-based analysis of RF offensive operations in the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd agglomeration area, visually confirming advances between 24 AUG and 10 SEP 25. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" and TASS report new batches of BMP-3s with enhanced protection kits and BMD-2s (after overhaul and modernization) have been delivered to RF troops, indicating sustained military production and improved armored vehicle capabilities. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" shares video of army aviation operations in Kharkiv Oblast, Iziumskyi district, near Borovska Andriyivka, with supporting caption indicating it's in the direction of the 1st Tank Army's assault units, confirming concentrated air support for ground advances. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a video of military personnel deploying barricades and concertina wire on a wet asphalt road at night, captioning "Poland closed border with Belarus indefinitely", confirming RF awareness and commentary on NATO defensive measures. TASS reports Russian forces have "practically dislodged" UAF from Novomykolaivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This, if confirmed, signals further RF commitment to expanding their Dnipropetrovsk salient. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) provides tactical maps of the Novopavlovsk direction, indicating ongoing RF offensive operations or consolidation of territorial control in this sector. "Воин DV" provides video evidence of the "liberation" of Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by "Vostok" Grouping, with visuals of drone reconnaissance and artillery strikes, and claimed destruction of an M-777 howitzer. "Народная милиция ДНР" shares drone footage of the RF 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (ORB) destroying a UAF communications antenna/Starlink in a rural area, confirming continued RF counter-C2 efforts. "Z комитет + карта СВО" shares several tactical maps indicating advances in the Velykomykhailivka and Novoivanivka areas, further supporting RF claims of ongoing pressure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Novopavlivka. Liveuamap Source reports on daily clashes across a wide front, detailing settlements near Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, and Kherson where UAF repelled attacks. Colonelcassad reports FPV drone operators from "Sparta" battalion, 51st Guards Combined Arms Army, destroyed two UAF UAV control points and a communication antenna near Dimitrov, indicating active RF counter-UAV and counter-C2 operations. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shares photo of claimed liberation of Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by RF MOD, reinforcing Colonelcassad's claim. MoD Russia reports 215th Combined Arms Army's motorised rifle regiment (Zapad Group of Forces) conducting drills with AGS-17 Plamya at a training ground in the SVO zone, confirming continued combat training. "Два майора" (RF milblogger) and "Сливочный каприз" (RF milblogger) further support claims of RF capture of Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetropvsk Oblast, with map and video evidence, including drone reconnaissance, artillery strikes, and claimed M-777 howitzer destruction. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) reports "Работайте братья" showing "our little birds" (drones) invading Hryshyno, suggesting active RF drone operations in that area (likely Pokrovsk axis). "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares a thermal drone video depicting a Russian soldier attempting to hide from a UAF drone operator (79th Airmobile Brigade), indicating active UAF drone hunter-killer operations and highlighting RF vulnerability. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shares thermal imaging drone footage attributed to "Anvar" special forces, showing an attack on a convoy, supporting offensive operations on the Sumy axis. "Сливочный каприз" provides charts showing "Pace of offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces in the SMO zone," claiming daily advances, indicating RF's internal assessment of operational tempo and sustained offensive. Colonelcassad, "Два майора," and "Alex Parker Returns" all report on the detention of an individual in Dimitrovgrad for allegedly plotting to assassinate Vladimir Solovyev, framed as an an operation by Ukrainian special services, indicating RF counter-intelligence efforts and its immediate use for IO. MoD Russia reports on the progress of the special military operation from 6-12 September, claiming strikes on Ukrainian defense industry, transport, energy, military airfields, and depots. "Сливочный каприз" shares drone footage of a settlement under artillery bombardment (Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk area), confirming continued ground pressure. "Воин DV" comments on Ukraine's delayed admission of territorial losses, indicating RF's view of UAF's information control. "Воин DV" shares drone footage of operators from the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, "Vostok" Grouping, actively engaging targets (vehicle, motorcycle, personnel) using FPV drones, indicating continued effective localized ground pressure and reconnaissance. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF milblogger) shares video of military vehicles (APCs/IFVs), attack helicopters, and a strategic bomber participating in "West-2025" exercises, confirming large-scale, multi-branch military drills are underway. "Два майора" share a video of three Russian soldiers expressing gratitude for donations (armored vehicle, batteries), confirming reliance on public support. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" makes a public appeal for donations for "desantniks" (airborne troops). Colonelcassad posts a video about a "Collection for the 4th auto column," showcasing the restoration and modification of a civilian vehicle (likely a Niva) with military-inspired paint and "Z" symbols, indicating ongoing volunteer efforts to supply vehicles for RF forces. "Воин DV" shares a video from the Zaporizhzhia direction featuring a soldier with the callsign "Kizovsky," showing the work of an evacuation group under fire, including destroyed military equipment and bodies of deceased soldiers, with a Turkish self-loading rifle (AKdal MKA-1919) identified in the footage. This highlights intense combat and ongoing efforts to retrieve casualties and equipment. "Старше Эдды" shares a video titled "Svoi. Douglas — Cortes: on the work of reactive artillery and loyalty to the Russian army," which likely features RF reactive artillery in action and promotes loyalty narratives. New information from "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shows Russian border guards destroying UAF equipment, infantry, and positions on the Bryansk-Chernihiv direction. Colonelcassad reports 38 US M1A2 Abrams tanks have arrived in Poland, an important NATO defensive measure. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts videos showcasing new Russian "Kurier" (Courier) unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) with machine guns and mine-laying capabilities, and 'Fagot' remote-controlled robotic platforms with autocannons and mine-laying systems, indicating advanced robotic combat deployments. "Старше Эдды" also shares a video from Senior Lieutenant Ivan Kurbatov of the 90th Tank Division, from a tank in a combat zone, delivering a patriotic message to Moscow. Colonelcassad reports Russian operators destroying a UAF temporary deployment point and three units of UAF automotive equipment in Sumy Oblast. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares video of RF forces operating a captured UAF hexacopter "Baba Yaga" against its former owners. Kadyrov_95 shares video footage of the 78th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Sever-Akhmat" conducting artillery strikes on enemy positions, demonstrating active combat operations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports the appearance of Russian FPV drones in the central part of Kramatorsk. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares FPV drone footage showing a truck on a dirt road in a wooded area, indicating active RF reconnaissance and targeting operations in the Iziumskyi district of Kharkiv Oblast. NEW: "Рыбарь" shares a map showing RF advances on the eastern front, with key labeled areas, suggesting continued focus on territorial gains (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a photo of RF airborne troops on the Konstantinovka direction, indicating a sustained ground presence and offensive intent (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: "Воин DV" shares drone footage displaying aerial reconnaissance over urban and rural environments, showing military vehicles (trucks, ATV) with camouflage/protective measures, interspersed with Russian propaganda emblems and slogans. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares a video depicting drone thermal imaging footage of a moving vehicle at night, with a crosshair reticle, suggesting active surveillance or targeting. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "Два майора" shares video of mobile groups of marine special forces with FPV drones protecting the coast of Crimea from uncrewed surface vessels (BEC) and other threats at night, showing drone deployment and monitoring. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad shares video of Lada Niva vehicles being painted in matte green camouflage, indicating ongoing volunteer efforts to supply modified civilian vehicles for RF forces. (Confidence: HIGH)

  • Air/Missile Forces: RF executed a UAV-centric air attack, with UAF Air Force reporting a 94% interception rate (62 of 66 UAVs) from the previous wave. UAF Air Force reports 33 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed in the latest wave (from 40 launched, 20 Shaheds, per RBC-Ukraine). Groups of enemy UAVs are entering southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast from TOT, course - north/northwest. Launches of KABs on Sumy, Northern Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts. TASS reports 5 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over Belgorod Oblast. RF Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs on eastern Kharkiv Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, and Sumy Oblast. A RF kamikaze drone "Upyr" engaged a UAF interceptor drone near Prykolotne, Kharkiv. A Ukrainian "Yozhka" drone was reportedly shot down near Lyman. Reconnaissance UAVs are reported in central Chernihiv Oblast and south of Zaporizhzhia. RF drone footage showcases identification and engagement of various enemy assets including a 'BABA-YAGA' drone. A ballistic missile threat from the north was issued. Enemy UAVs are moving towards Zaporizhzhia city from the east. RF Air Defense Forces destroyed five enemy UAVs heading towards Moscow, with a total of seven destroyed. Air defense forces are active against UAVs over the southwestern part of Leningrad Oblast, and Pulkovo airport has implemented a "Carpet" plan (airspace closure). Enemy UAVs are detected in eastern Sumy Oblast, moving west. Two more UAVs heading towards Moscow have been destroyed. Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation are reported in Sumy Oblast. Enemy strike UAVs are detected in the Kakhovka region (Kherson Oblast), moving towards Mykolaiv Oblast. Over 20 UAVs have been destroyed over Leningrad Oblast. Enemy drones are approaching Kharkiv from the east. An enemy UAV has been detected in Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorod and Bucha districts), moving west, with PVO active. Restrictions have been imposed in the airports of Ivanovo, Pskov, Yaroslavl, and St. Petersburg overnight. Enemy UAVs are detected in the northeastern part of Sumy Oblast, followed by explosions in Sumy. A ballistic missile threat from Kursk Oblast has been issued. Over 30 UAVs were repelled in three municipalities of Rostov Oblast. A massive drone attack was launched on Leningrad Oblast overnight, with a fire reported on a vessel in Primorsk port. Drone footage from an Orlan-10 variant shows identification and targeting of Ukrainian military positions/vehicles on the Zaporizhzhia front, followed by a missile launch. The Russian MoD claims to have shot down 221 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions overnight, with 9 of them over the Moscow region. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs on the north of Chernihiv Oblast, north of Kharkiv Oblast, and east of Sumy Oblast. Fighterbomber (RF milblogger) shares video from a helicopter with a Gatling gun flying low over water, indicating active RF tactical aviation operations, potentially in coastal or riverine areas. TASS reports RF Southern Grouping of Forces destroyed three UAF UAV control posts and a Starlink antenna on the Siversk direction, demonstrating effective counter-C2 and counter-communications capabilities. Colonelcassad and Военкор Котенок report the Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have shot down 221 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity in northern Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, indicating continued ISR pressure on the northern border. UAF Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by RF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports air strike warnings for Zaporizhzhia and KABs on Zaporizhzhia, confirming active RF aerial strike operations in this key southern sector, likely in support of ground forces. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares multiple videos depicting night-time explosions and missile trails, including an alleged UAV strike on Primorsk Port and a significant explosion in an urban/industrial area, reinforcing UAF deep strike claims. "Повітряні Сиили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports new reconnaissance UAV activity on the north of Chernihiv and east of Sumy Oblasts. Kotsnews reports RF is testing a "heavy drone evading EW," potentially indicating new RF drone development. "Два майора" shares an image of an alleged Ukrainian drone payload, implying UAF drone attacks. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports no information on destruction or casualties at 101, 102, 103, regarding current air raid activity in Zaporizhzhia. This confirms ongoing vigilance but no confirmed impact yet. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shares video titled "Работайте братья" depicting RF drone operations, indicating active deployment of UAVs. Kotsnews shares drone footage of an artillery impact, showing a soldier moving through smoky terrain, underscoring ongoing combat. "Два майора" shares video of a Russian exhibition of UAVs and counter-drone technologies ("Дронница"), suggesting a significant investment in developing drone capabilities. MoD Russia reports that from 6 to 12 September, RF conducted one massive and six group strikes against Ukrainian defense industry, transport, and energy infrastructure, military airfields, and depots. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares new video footage from a drone's perspective, showing active combat operations with explosions and destruction of military vehicles in wooded and open areas, indicating continued RF drone surveillance and targeting. STERNENKO (UAF milblogger) reports 5 more enemy UAVs shot down, sharing drone footage of a small, white, fixed-wing UAV ("SKY RUSORIZ") flying over a rural area, indicating ongoing UAF counter-UAV efforts and potential fundraising for this project. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports a threat of aviation munition use in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykove district). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a strike UAV in northern Kherson Oblast moving southwest. Colonelcassad reports a hexacopter "Baba Yaga" was shot down by "Viking" operators with one precise strike, showing continued RF counter-UAV efforts. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a threat of aviation munitions use for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. NEW: "Военкор Котенок" shares photo of wreckage of a Ukrainian Su-27, claimed to be shot down yesterday in Zaporizhzhia (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares a video of a UAF MiG-29 conducting an aerial attack, described as "master class on dismantling the invaders' battalion headquarters" in Zaporizhzhia (Confidence: MEDIUM). NEW: MoD Russia shares a video of Russian military personnel preparing and deploying a multi-rotor drone in a dry, grassy, open field environment, likely for reconnaissance or surveillance. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: MoD Russia reports that in Dnepropetrovsk region, operators of the Vostok Group's UAVs successfully overwhelmed control channels of an enemy heavy hexacopter. (Confidence: HIGH)

  • Naval Forces: USV attack on Novorossiysk confirmed, disabling an RF Black Sea Fleet vessel (Project MPSV07). "Операция Z" (RusVesna) reports a massive enemy attack on Leningrad Oblast, with a fire on a tanker and pumping station in Primorsk, with accompanying video footage. Sever.Realii also reports drones attacked Russia's largest oil loading port in Primorsk. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) and Janus Putkonen (Finnish milblogger) share similar videos showcasing naval assets, including frigates, hovercraft, and submarines, participating in "West-2025" exercises, indicating a demonstration of naval power projection. TASS provides video of Northern Fleet deployments for "West-2025" exercises, showcasing a range of naval assets including a Slava-class cruiser, a Udaloy-class destroyer, a Kilo-class submarine, and smaller patrol vessels operating in coastal waters, suggesting ongoing readiness and operational activity in strategic maritime areas. TASS reports the Pacific Fleet has started planned exercises with nuclear submarines and Bastion coastal missile systems, further confirming large-scale RF naval exercises. MoD Russia shares video of Northern Fleet forces deployed in near-shore and off-shore maritime zones for Zapad 2025, confirming naval component of the exercises. TASS reports the Northern Fleet has deployed forces in the Arctic Ocean for "West-2025" exercises. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF milblogger) shares video footage of naval operations (warships, hovercraft, submarine) as part of the "West-2025" exercises. ASTRA reports that two berths and an oil tanker were damaged in the Primorsk oil loading port after a UAV attack, confirming BDA. NEW: "Два майора" shares video of mobile groups of marine special forces with FPV drones protecting the coast of Crimea from uncrewed surface vessels (BEC) and other threats at night, showing drone deployment and monitoring. (Confidence: HIGH)

  • Information Warfare (IO): RF is actively pushing narratives to discredit Ukraine, sow discord among allies, leveraging various diplomatic and internal events (e.g., Zelenskyy's statements, Hungarian FM's accusations, US internal issues like the Charlie Kirk assassination). RF media denies deliberate drone incursions into Poland while milbloggers promote narratives questioning their origin. RF leverages statements on Germany's need to increase Bundeswehr strength to portray NATO as weak. RF promotes narratives on Slovakia rejecting Western troops in Ukraine. RF IO also focuses on internal morale-boosting and patriotism, such as the increased military personnel salaries and celebrating military education bodies. RF claims UAF units on the Serebryansk direction received direct orders to shoot at civilians. RF continues to use child-centric propaganda. RF continues to amplify civilian casualties in Belgorod and Bryansk Oblasts, blaming UAF for "barbaric crimes." TASS continues to circulate images and narratives about the Charlie Kirk assassination, suggesting UAF/Western involvement, for psychological influence. "Два майора" promote a religious procession in St. Petersburg, a domestic morale-boosting and patriotism-enhancing event. TASS attributes UAF "looting" in Krasny Liman to a preparation for withdrawal, a clear RF IO attempt to demoralize UAF and signal RF battlefield dominance. "Военкор Котенок" (RF milblogger) pushes a narrative of UAF repressing citizens who report "correct behavior" by RF soldiers in Kyiv Oblast, aiming to delegitimize Ukrainian authorities and promote a false image of RF forces. "Два майора" claim the house damaged in Poland by an alleged drone was previously damaged by a storm, attempting to discredit UAF actions and Polish/NATO claims. "Два майора" celebrate the birthday of Ella Pamfilova, Chair of RF Central Election Commission, reinforcing stability narratives. ТАСС amplifies a New York Times article arguing that Trump's reaction to the drone incident in Poland shows US detachment from European defense, further pushing narratives of Western disunity. Операция Z (RusVesna) circulates highly inflammatory and graphic content, alleging a "deadly clash with TCC" (Ukrainian Territorial Recruitment Centers) where a priest with a pistol attempted to decapitate military commissars with an axe, a clear attempt to demonize Ukrainian authorities and sow discord. ФСБ (Russian Federal Security Service) reports the detention in Klimovsk, Moscow region, of a Russian citizen who allegedly financed UAF and planned to join combat on the enemy side, an internal security measure likely leveraged for propaganda. Басурин о главном (RF milblogger) promotes a propaganda image about the "Admiral Kuznetsov" aircraft carrier making billions for Russia, a clear attempt at domestic morale-boosting and projecting naval strength despite the vessel's operational challenges. TASS promotes a "Moscow helps to vote" center on Pokrovka, which is likely part of internal election-related IO to encourage participation and project normalcy/stability. TASS reports a 14-year-old son of a Russian officer participating in the SVO was added to the Ukrainian "Myrotvorets" extremist website, which RF will use to demonstrate alleged Ukrainian extremism and target Russian military families for propaganda purposes. TASS reports a resident of Crimea was sentenced to 17 years for preparing a terrorist attack, which RF will leverage for internal security messaging and demonization of Ukrainian supporters. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) uses videos of Russian schoolchildren handling firearms and "FAKE" overlays to discredit Ukrainian claims about militarization of Russian youth, while simultaneously promoting patriotic education, demonstrating complex IO. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" projects the Special Military Operation (SVO) will conclude in 2027 with the capture of Odesa and Mykolaiv, indicating long-term RF strategic aspirations. "Воин DV" (RF milblogger) reports on upcoming US-South Korea nuclear exercises, which RF will use to frame NATO/US as aggressive. "Alex Parker Returns" shares another image of the Charlie Kirk assassination, reiterating the RF IO narrative. "Kotsnews" discusses a video regarding a boy on "Mirotvorets", claiming the original video was "fake" to discredit Ukrainian media/IO, demonstrating continued RF efforts to control narratives around youth militarization and alleged Ukrainian extremism. "Alex Parker Returns" shares a post regarding the sentencing of former Brazilian president Bolsonaro, leveraging it to highlight US pressure and push Brazil towards BRICS, furthering a narrative of anti-Western alliances. ASTRA reports 90 polling stations across Russia are named in honor of participants in the war with Ukraine, a clear RF IO effort to normalize and glorify the conflict within civilian life and promote military patriotism during elections. TASS publishes an interview with Rodion Miroshnik claiming Ukraine attacked border regions to disrupt Russia-US summit in Alaska, a clear IO attempt to blame UAF for cross-border strikes and frame UAF as disruptive to diplomacy. TASS claims Tatiana Kurtukova, singer of "Matushka," was added to Ukrainian "Myrotvorets" extremist website, another RF IO play to demonstrate alleged Ukrainian extremism and target cultural figures. "Басурин о главном" disseminates RT information on the mother of defector pilot Kuzminov, suggesting an ongoing RF effort to discredit defectors and their families. "Старше Эдды" shares a video and caption claiming a video of a boy on "Myrotvorets" was "fake," continuing RF efforts to control narratives around youth militarization and alleged Ukrainian extremism. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares a video and caption about Alla Pugacheva giving an interview to a "foreign agent," an IO attempt to discredit dissenting cultural figures. "Полиция Хабаровского края" shares a video celebrating a Russian TV program focused on law enforcement, projecting internal stability and competence. "Colonelcassad" claims former Pentagon aide Stephen Bryen stated fallen drones in Poland were under Ukrainian control, amplifying a narrative to shift blame. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shares a graphic claim that the father of a Ukrainian killed in the US was not allowed to leave Ukraine due to conscription age, another RF IO effort to demonize Ukrainian authorities and create sympathy for draft evaders. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares images and video commemorating a deceased project leader, aimed at internal morale and heroism narratives. "Z комитет + карта СВО" shares tactical maps of Velykomykhailivka and Novoivanivka to promote RF advances. "Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration" shares video of President Zelenskyy speaking at the Fifth Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen, emphasizing education and international solidarity, a UAF counter-IO effort. "Два майора" accuse Ukraine of issuing "another fake" and circulating it in social networks, specifically referencing a video about children learning to handle firearms, reinforcing RF's efforts to counter Ukrainian information. TASS quotes Rodion Miroshnik claiming the West supplies Ukraine with "inoperable Patriot air defenses," a clear IO attempt to discredit Western aid and boost RF confidence. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" amplifies former Pentagon aide Stephen Bryen's claim that fallen drones in Poland were under Ukrainian control, further shifting blame away from RF. "Два майора" post a memorial for a project leader of "Archangel Spetsnaz," another internal morale-boosting and heroism narrative. TASS quotes Florian Philippot, French "Patriots" party leader, claiming Western countries want to accelerate a full-scale war, an RF IO effort to portray the West as aggressive. "Alex Parker Returns" amplifies the claim by former Pentagon aide Stephen Bryen that fallen drones in Poland were under Ukrainian control and part of a provocation for more NATO weapons, reinforcing a key RF disinformation narrative. "Alex Parker Returns" shares a derogatory post about Finnish President Stubb's closeness to Zelenskyy, aiming to undermine the perception of Western unity and leadership. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares a video promoting "Faith in the SVO" project, showing a priest with soldiers, reinforcing religious and morale-boosting narratives within RF armed forces. Рыбарь's "Historical Decision" post appears to be political propaganda, without direct military significance, but aiming to reinforce RF narratives. Alex Parker Returns shares multiple posts about Donald Trump potentially visiting Uzbekistan, likely to highlight his global influence or to contrast with the ongoing conflict. Maria Zakharova (TASS) states that Denmark's plans to produce solid rocket fuel for long-range missiles in Ukraine are an "adventure" and a "militarist course" that would escalate the conflict, indicating a new RF IO narrative to counter Western aid. TASS and Alex Parker Returns report the detention of an individual planning an assassination attempt on Vladimir Solovyev, framed as a Ukrainian special services operation, which RF will use for internal security messaging and demonification of Ukraine. TASS, Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, RBC-Ukraine, and Оперативний ЗСУ all report Peskov's statement about a "pause" in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, which RF will use to project a desire for dialogue while blaming European interference. Maria Zakharova (ТАСС) claims the West is trying to "fit" a legal base for stealing Russian assets, indicating continued RF IO regarding Western sanctions. Рыбарь discusses Moldovan President Sandu's statements, likely for IO against Moldova or to highlight its pro-Western stance. Maria Zakharova (Операция Z) claims "Zelenskyy is killing you for Western money," a highly inflammatory statement designed to undermine UAF and Western support. TASS shares a statement from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban claiming Ursula von der Leyen is leading the EU into an abyss with her political course, reinforcing narratives of EU disunity. TASS shares Maria Zakharova's statement accusing Kyiv of "gloating" over the Kirk assassination, proving the West has "raised a bloody monster" out of Kyiv, escalating inflammatory rhetoric. "Воин DV" sarcastically comments on Ukraine's delayed admission of territorial losses, implying UAF information manipulation. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reports on the "pause" in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, reinforcing the Kremlin's narrative. Colonelcassad reports the FSB detention of a Russian citizen in Klimovsk for allegedly financing UAF, which RF will use for internal security and propaganda. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares graphic combat footage, likely to demonstrate RF combat effectiveness or the brutality of war from their perspective. "Рыбарь" posts about "Prince on a white horse?" possibly a sarcastic comment on high-profile visits or a general IO message. AV БогомаZ posts about opening a new school in Bryansk, a civilian IO effort to project normalcy and development. "Операция Z" and "Военкор Котенок" amplify the claim of UAF attacking the Smolensk NPP, framing it as "nuclear terrorism," a severe escalation of RF IO. Maria Zakharova's statements are amplified by TASS, furthering RF's diplomatic IO. Colonelcassad's comment on the "fool" Vice-Mayor of Riga reinforces anti-Western sentiment. TASS reports Maria Zakharova's statements from a briefing, including criticisms of the West, indicating ongoing diplomatic IO. ТАСС reports on comments from the Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Financial Markets, Aksakov, stating that further reductions in the key interest rate are possible by the end of 2025, which will be used to project economic stability. Операция Z (RusVesna) shares video and images with the caption "Дети «для войны» и дети «для Европы»," contrasting statements by Ukrainian officials with the perceived lifestyle of their children abroad, a clear RF IO effort to expose alleged hypocrisy and sow discontent within Ukraine. Maria Zakharova (Басурин о главном) uses her official platform to accuse the "Kyiv regime" of conducting "terrorist war against peaceful residents of Russia," citing specific incidents in various regions, reinforcing RF's narrative for both domestic and international audiences. ТАСС reports that the German MFA summoned the Russian Ambassador regarding the drone incident in Poland, which RF will use to frame NATO as overly aggressive or to project its own diplomatic strength by having its ambassador summoned. TASS reports Trump stating the suspect in the Charlie Kirk murder is "very likely" in custody, leveraging US domestic news for IO. "Военкор Котенок" amplifies Trump's statement on the Charlie Kirk suspect. Alex Parker Returns and Оперативний ЗСУ also amplify Trump's statement on the Charlie Kirk suspect, further disseminating this US domestic news in the RF IO space. Alex Parker Returns shares a video featuring Donald Trump discussing the death penalty for the Kirk suspect, further amplifying this narrative. TASS also reports Trump hopes for the death penalty for Kirk's killer, reinforcing the RF IO focus on this event. Рыбарь shares a map titled "Cocaine Bridge," which, while not directly military, may allude to illicit activities or narratives for IO. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares a photo message about the "First ban on leaving the country due to the electronic register of subpoenas," indicating a new RF IO narrative on mobilization and internal control. ТАСС reports that Dmitry Bykov (recognized as a foreign agent and extremist in RF) is accused of spreading false information about RF shelling of Kharkiv, indicating RF IO targeting dissenting voices and controlling narratives about its actions in Ukraine. РБК-Україна shares a photo message about "Departure abroad for guys aged 18-22: has business felt the outflow of personnel," indicating a UAF-aligned IO focusing on the impact of mobilization on Ukrainian society. "Два майора" shares photo messages and text expressing concern about "United Russia" candidates in regional elections, specifically mentioning issues with diaspora leaders, which may represent an internal RF IO critique or concern. "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" shares photo messages about opening a memorial plaque to fallen defender Oleksandr Dokukin, a UAF IO effort to honor fallen soldiers and boost morale. Офіс Генерального прокурора shares a photo message about a "scheme of fictitious employment in 'fake' educational institutions to evade mobilization," indicating a UAF internal IO effort to combat draft evasion. TASS now identifies the Charlie Kirk killer suspect as 22-year-old Tyler Robinson from Utah, using NYP as a source, continuing to amplify US domestic news for IO purposes. TASS shares a video of Nabiullina discussing housing construction growth (10%) and price doubling (2x) since 2020, likely for domestic economic IO. Новости Москвы advertises a cashback program from Alfa-Bank for train tickets, another domestic IO effort to promote normalcy and consumerism. The Coordination Staff for POWs is holding a meeting with families of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade (UAF) fighters, demonstrating UAF commitment to POW support. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of Ukrainian soldiers from the '3rd Army Corps' operating in a rural environment, including interaction with captured individuals, indicating active offensive/clearing operations. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА share video of a meeting with Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, discussing further support, defense aid, joint weapons production, and EU membership, highlighting continued UAF diplomatic efforts. STERNENKO shares video of the UAF BAS Fenix unit working daily on Russian logistics in Donetsk Oblast, showcasing UAF operational effectiveness against RF supply lines. РБК-Україна reports the State Bureau of Investigation (DBR) has completed its investigation into Ukrainian MP Yevhen Shevchenko for treason and fraud, demonstrating continued UAF anti-corruption efforts. Олександр Вілкул shares multiple photo messages with the caption "ЖИТТЯ ТРИВАЄ!" (Life Continues!), depicting civilian events with traditional Ukrainian attire, a UAF IO effort to boost morale and project normalcy amidst the conflict. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational information as of 16:00, 12.09.2025, continuing regular updates. TASS reports the Central Bank is concerned about unsubstantiated blocking of citizen funds and will take measures, an RF IO effort to reassure the public about economic stability. Colonelcassad amplifies former Polish MEP Janusz Korwin-Mikke's accusation that Ukraine launched drones towards Poland, reinforcing RF's narrative to shift blame. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photo messages on "Ukraine on the way to the EU: Zaporizhzhia entrepreneurs and experts discussed legislative changes," a UAF IO effort to promote economic integration and European aspirations. AV БогомаZ (Bryansk Governor) shares multiple photo messages depicting civilian development projects in Zhurinichi (Bryansk Oblast), including new school-kindergarten, medical post, sports complex, and a greenhouse complex, representing local IO to project normalcy and development. Kotsnews shares photo messages of an "artilleryman's amulet" ("Оберег артиллериста. Окопная проза «Адлера»"), likely for RF troop morale. Hungarian PM Orban reiterates solidarity with Poland regarding drone incursions, despite previous RF efforts to portray disunity. This is a diplomatic setback for RF IO that RF will need to address in its information environment. "Военкор Котенок" shares a photo message identifying the Charlie Kirk killer suspect as 22-year-old Tyler Robinson from Utah, indicating continued amplification of this US domestic news for IO. TASS reports that Fadeev, head of the Human Rights Council (RF), stated that returning to oral exams in schools will help objectively assess knowledge amid the use of AI by students, indicating an RF IO focus on adapting education and implicitly acknowledging challenges posed by AI. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports that the Telegram channel VChK-OGPU, close to RF security forces, reports a social explosion in occupied Donetsk Oblast due to catastrophic water supply issues, as evidenced by closed sociological surveys, indicating a potential internal weakness for RF. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine launched an integration program for 375 million Euros, supported by Denmark, focusing on resilience, energy security, and green energy transition, highlighting continued international support. РБК-Україна reports that a delegation of Polish military personnel will arrive in Ukraine next week to work with Ukrainian forces on counter-drone issues, confirming strengthening military cooperation. РБК-Україна reports Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha named expectations for the 19th package of European sanctions against Russia, focusing on financial infrastructure and oil exports, indicating continued economic pressure on RF. Zelenskiy / Official and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, share a video of President Zelenskyy stating "Putin's goal is the occupation of all Ukraine... Russia's war machine will only stop when it runs out of fuel," indicating a clear and resolute UAF stance. Басурин о главном shares a video of Junior Sergeant Andrei Lavrov from Moscow promoting a propaganda message about loyalty and the SVO, demonstrating RF internal morale boosting efforts. Операція Z and its "Voenkory Russkoy Vesny" (Russian Spring War Correspondents) contradict earlier reports, stating that Polish military personnel will NOT come to Ukraine for counter-drone training, but will learn FROM UAF specialists on Polish territory. This represents a nuanced adjustment in the narrative of Polish-Ukrainian military cooperation from an RF perspective, possibly to downplay direct NATO involvement in Ukraine. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy jokingly compared Kellogg's to air defense, offering citizenship to the company, indicating a lighthearted approach to IO and an attempt to attract foreign investment/support. ТАСС reports the State Duma may consider a bill for year-round conscription on September 24th, indicating RF's focus on maintaining troop numbers. Alex Parker Returns posts a derogatory caption about Zelenskyy and General Kellogg, accusing Zelenskyy of being a "military dictator" and offering citizenship to Kellogg if it stops shelling, framing it as hysterical and desperate. Zelenskiy / Official shares a video of a meeting with British Foreign Minister Yvette Cooper, thanking her for her first visit being to Ukraine, indicating continued high-level diplomatic support. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy states giving land to Putin is not a solution, but a pause. Операция Z amplifies Zelenskyy's statement about Putin's goal as an "hysterical" reaction. Два майора posts multiple photo messages alleging US funding of NGOs to "maidanize" Belarusian people, implying Western interference. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Zelenskyy states that to destroy 800 Shahed UAVs, 1600 interceptor drones are needed, or at least 500, with other weapons, indicating a critical need for air defense assets. ТАСС reports a tenfold increase in "Sber" fraud cases with fake "Gosuslugi" accounts, indicating an internal cyber security threat impacting civilian financial services. Colonelcassad reports inscriptions on Kirk's killer's rifle ammunition ("If you read this, you're gay, lol", "Hey fascist, catch", and "Bella Ciao"), which RF will leverage for IO to demonize the killer and link him to Western/leftist extremist narratives. ТАСС reports Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski stated that Poland does not see any reason to sever diplomatic relations with Russia, providing a nuanced diplomatic stance from a key NATO member. NEW: RBC-Україна reports Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski stating that intensified attacks after the Alaska summit indicate Putin's intent to continue the war (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: ASTRA and "Операция Z" amplify Polish FM Sikorski's statement that NATO is not fighting Russia, but Russia is fighting NATO through Ukraine, indicating a clear framing of the conflict by Poland (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: Colonelcassad provides a weekly summary of the Special Military Operation from 6 to 12 September 2025, from the RF MoD, indicating an effort to control the overall narrative (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: TASS reports Israel rejects a UN General Assembly resolution on a two-state solution for Palestine, calling the assembly a "political circus," indicating RF attention to international events beyond Ukraine (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: Colonelcassad shares a text message about Telegram bots temporarily not working due to glitches, and the resulting "counter-offensive of bot accounts" in comments, indicating RF awareness of internal IO challenges (Confidence: MEDIUM). NEW: TASS shares a photo message of Pavel Durov's statement identifying Charlie Kirk's death as an "assault on free speech." (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad amplifies Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski's statement that NATO is not fighting Russia, but Russia is fighting NATO through Ukraine. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares a video celebrating Sergey Parchevsky, a boxing trainer and DPR People's Council deputy, focusing on his commitment to sports and community in Donbas amidst conflict. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "Janus Putkonen" (Finnish milblogger) shares multiple videos (memes) from Poland, satirizing the "Russian drone attack" by showing toy airplanes, and another of a downed commercial drone with "Терроризировать" (Terrorize) written on it. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "РБК-Україна" reports a NATO general states "Operation Eastern Guardian" does not include integration with Ukrainian air defense. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Polish FM Sikorski acknowledged some drones violating Polish airspace came from Ukraine, not solely Belarus. (Confidence: HIGH)

1.4. Intelligence Gaps (Confidence: HIGH)

• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the UAF drone strikes on the oil depot in Smolensk Oblast and Primorsk port in Leningrad Oblast? What specific types of facilities were hit (e.g., storage tanks, pumping stations, vessels), what is the estimated damage, and what is the operational impact on RF military/energy logistics? (Previous Critical for Smolensk, New for Primorsk Oil Depot) ASTRA reports no damage or casualties in Smolensk according to Governor Anokhin. This directly contradicts previous UAF claims and requires immediate verification. RBC-Ukraine reports oil shipments suspended from Primorsk, requiring verification of this specific impact. TASS claims a UAF drone attacked the Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant, hitting ancillary facilities. What is the verifiable BDA of this new strike? RF milblogger reporting also indicates the attack on Smolensk NPP. NEW: Росатом's claim of minor damage (fence, admin building) and no impact on critical infrastructure requires independent verification, as does the previous claim of ancillary facilities hit. This is a crucial intelligence gap regarding the true impact and potential for escalation. NEW: ASTRA's report of two berths and an oil tanker damaged at Primorsk provides specific BDA, but confirmation of the extent of damage and its operational/economic impact remains critical. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares new satellite imagery confirming damage to at least two tanks at Transneft's Vtorovo oil pumping station in Vladimir Oblast. This BDA from a UAF-aligned source needs independent verification, but increases confidence in the strike's success and impact.
• CRITICAL: What is the specific composition, strength, and immediate objectives of the RF 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment operating in the Sumy direction, particularly near Yunakovka? What is the current UAF force posture and defensive readiness in this sector? What specific village in Sumy Oblast was hit by the latest RF strike causing fatalities and destruction, and what is the confirmed BDA? ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS specifies Bytytsia as the village, requiring verification of BDA and confirmation of casualties. NEW: Colonelcassad's claim of a destroyed UAF PVD and three vehicles in Sumy Oblast requires BDA verification and identification of the specific UAF unit affected.
• CRITICAL: What is the specific BDA of the alleged "liberation" of Sosnovka and Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by the RF "Vostok" Grouping/Russian Army? What UAF units were defending it, and what is the current UAF posture in Velykomykhailivka, which RF claims to be encircling? What is the verifiable BDA for the RF claim of "practically dislodging" UAF from Novomykolaivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast? What UAF units were involved, and what are the immediate RF intentions for exploitation? What are the precise details and verified advances depicted in the "Z комитет + карта СВО" maps for Velykomykhailivka and Novoivanivka? What are the specific changes reflected in the DeepState map update? NEW: What is the verifiable BDA and tactical significance of the "Shkval" battalion's successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts? What RF units were impacted, and what is the current UAF disposition in the area?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific BDA of the alleged RF strikes on the Lviv Armored Plant, Lviv Aviation Plant, and other DIB facilities in western Ukraine?
• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA and specific details of the alleged defection of a Russian soldier to the UAF after killing two officers and destroying his position, as reported by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС? What unit was he from, and what actionable intelligence has he provided?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific impact and BDA of the new RF mechanized offensive on the Kostiantynivka direction, as reported by STERNENKO? What RF units are involved, and what UAF forces are counter-attacking? What specific details are available regarding the RF breakthrough near Predtechino and Pleshcheyevka?
• CRITICAL: What is the verifiable BDA and source for the claim of 80% destruction of UAF assault groups near Andriyivka, Sumy Oblast (TASS)? What UAF units were involved, and what is the overall impact on UAF offensive capabilities in the Sumy region?
• CRITICAL: What is the current status of RF "motorcycle assaults"? Are these isolated incidents or a new, broader tactical adaptation? What are the specific vulnerabilities of these tactics to UAF counter-engagement?
• CRITICAL: What is the confirmed BDA of the alleged RF "practical dislodgement" of UAF from Kirovsk on the Krasny Liman direction? What UAF units were involved, and what are the immediate RF intentions for further exploitation?
• CRITICAL: What is the confirmed BDA of the RF claim regarding the destruction of a storage site for 155mm M203A1 propelling charges by a "VT-40" fiber-optic FPV drone? What UAF unit was affected, and what is the operational impact on UAF artillery sustainment?
• CRITICAL: What is the verifiable BDA and source for the claim by "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" that UAF has "cleared and liberated" the villages of Shakhove and Volodymyrivka on the Dobropillya direction? What RF units were defending these villages, and what are the immediate UAF intentions for further exploitation or consolidation?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific details of the SBU operation regarding the UOC-MP priest accused of adjusting RF strikes in Sumy Oblast? What intelligence was gathered, and how does this impact RF intelligence gathering networks?
• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA and context of the graphic video of multiple deceased and dismembered individuals shared by "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС"? What was the cause of casualties, and in what specific location did this occur?
• CRITICAL: What is the full scope and specific objectives of the "West-2025" exercises? What RF and Belarusian units are participating, what new capabilities are being tested, and what are the implications for potential future offensive operations against Ukraine or NATO? (Previously Critical, Reconfirmed) NEW: What is the specific composition of forces (unit breakdown, equipment numbers) involved in the "West-2025" exercises as depicted in the Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video? What specific tactical scenarios are being rehearsed?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific RF air defense system or air-to-air asset was responsible for the downing of the UAF Su-27 in the Zaporizhzhia direction, and what is the operational impact on UAF air superiority in this sector? (Previously Critical, Reconfirmed) MoD Russia claims it was destroyed in aerial combat by Russian Aerospace Forces, this needs independent verification. NEW: Colonelcassad reports finding the wreckage of the Su-27 near Dobropillya, which requires immediate UAF verification and BDA to confirm the loss. NEW: "Военкор Котенок" shares a photo of the wreckage of a Ukrainian Su-27, claimed to be shot down yesterday in Zaporizhzhia. Independent BDA and verification of this specific loss (location, date, cause) are critically needed to confirm the impact on UAF air superiority.
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA and operational impact of the alleged UAV strike on the Transneft oil pumping station "Vtorovo" in Vladimir Oblast, Russia? What specific assets were targeted, and what is the estimated repair time and economic impact? NEW: КіберБорошно's analysis provides specific BDA (technological overpass, pipelines, cables), but independent verification and assessment of repair time/economic impact are still critical. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares satellite imagery claiming damage to at least two tanks at Transneft's Vtorovo station. This requires immediate independent verification.
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA of the RF 68th ORB's claimed destruction of a UAF communications antenna/Starlink? What unit was affected and what is the impact on UAF C2?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable status of the claimed UAF relocation of military aircraft to airfields in Poland and Romania? What types and numbers of aircraft are involved, and what are the implications for UAF air operations and NATO-Ukraine cooperation?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA of the RF "Sparta" battalion's claimed destruction of two UAF UAV control points and a communication antenna near Dimitrov? What UAF units and C2 were affected?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the specific details of the RF Southern Grouping of Forces destroying three UAF UAV control posts and a Starlink antenna on the Siversk direction? What units were affected, and what is the impact on UAF C2?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the full scope and capabilities of the newly introduced Croatian M-84 tanks to the UAF 141st Mechanized Brigade? What is their deployment location and immediate impact on UAF armored capabilities?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA and tactical context of RF drone operations against Hryshyno, as reported by "Операция Z"? What specific UAF assets or personnel were targeted?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the full BDA and tactical significance of the RF Pacific Fleet exercises, specifically the involvement of nuclear submarines and Bastion coastal missile systems? How does this impact RF's overall strategic posture and potential for power projection?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA and full context of the thermal imaging footage shared by "Операция Z" of "Anvar" special forces attacking a convoy on the Sumy axis? What type of vehicles were targeted, and what was the impact?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA and specific location of the UAF sniper operation reported by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС on the Toretsk front, Donetsk Oblast, resulting in six RF assault troops eliminated?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the full scope and intent of the "Day without booze" initiative by "Оперативний ЗСУ"? Is it a UAF-wide campaign, and what is its specific intent beyond general health?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the specific details of the new state holiday announced by Zelenskyy, and how does it relate to military or national morale?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What are the full details and the financial impact of the fraud investigation into the Ukrainian MP reported by the Office of the Prosecutor General? How does this impact public trust in UAF government and aid efforts?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What are the specifics of the combat scenarios (wooded, open fields, destroyed vehicles) depicted in the new "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video? What RF units are involved, and what is the operational context? NEW: What are the specific targets and BDA of the RF FPV drone operations by the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, "Vostok" Grouping, as shown in the "Воин DV" video? What types of vehicles/personal were engaged?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the operational impact and specific targets of the artillery bombardment depicted in "Сливочный каприз" video of the Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk area?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the true nature and impact of the shootout with two fatalities in an auto service office in Lviv Oblast? Was it an isolated criminal act, or does it indicate broader internal security concerns with potential links to the conflict?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA and context of the SSO snipers' close-quarters combat during an assault on enemy trench positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction, as shown in the БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video? What enemy units were encountered?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What are the specific tactical applications and vulnerabilities of RF's FPV "Zhduny" drones, as highlighted by Оперативний ЗСУ? How are UAF forces adapting to counter this tactic?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA of the RF reactive artillery engagement shown in "Старше Эдды"'s video? What UAF targets were engaged, and what was the impact?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the current status and capabilities of the VAZ-2121 (Niva) or similar Soviet-era vehicles being restored and customized with military markings for RF forces, as shown in Colonelcassad's "4th auto column" video? What is their intended role and impact on RF ground mobility?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What are the current and future resource requirements for RF airborne troops, as implied by "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺"'s donation appeal? What does this indicate about their sustainment status?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the specific impact of the scheme for fictitious employment in 'fake' educational institutions to evade mobilization in Kyiv, as reported by Офіс Генерального прокурора? How widespread is this issue, and what is its impact on UAF mobilization efforts?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the specific targets and BDA of the Russian border guard operations against UAF equipment, infantry, and positions on the Bryansk-Chernihiv direction, as reported by "Операция Z"?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the specific operational context and BDA of the UAF '3rd Army Corps' operations as shown in the БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video, particularly regarding the captured individuals? What intelligence can be derived from these interactions?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA of the 88th Assault Brigade's claimed capture of an enemy stronghold near Fedorovka on the Siverske direction? What UAF units were involved, and what are the immediate RF intentions for exploitation?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What are the specific capabilities, deployment status, and tactical implications of the newly showcased Russian "Kurier" (Courier) unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) and 'Fagot' remote-controlled robotic platforms? What are UAF's immediate countermeasures for these systems?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the specific military intelligence value of the image of a soldier holding a crocheted panda toy ("Оберег артиллериста. Окопная проза «Адлера»")? Is this specific to a unit, or a broader cultural phenomenon?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the full context and military significance of the video featuring Senior Lieutenant Ivan Kurbatov of the 90th Tank Division delivering a patriotic message from a tank? What specific combat operations is he referencing?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the specific implications for the "Neutron Source" facility in Kharkiv regarding the risk of a nuclear accident due to RF strikes, as reported by RBC-Україна? What is the current status of the facility and its defenses?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA and context of the claimed UAF capture of a hexacopter "Baba Yaga" by RF forces and its subsequent use against UAF, as reported by Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition? What RF unit is operating it, and what are the tactical implications?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA and context of the 78th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Sever-Akhmat" conducting artillery strikes? What are their specific targets and what is the impact on UAF forces?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA of the Russian FPV drones appearing in central Kramatorsk? What specific targets are they engaging, and what is the immediate threat to UAF forces or civilian infrastructure?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the veracity and full context of the FPV drone footage showing a truck on a dirt road in the Iziumskyi district, Kharkiv Oblast? What type of truck was it, what was its cargo, and what was the outcome of the engagement?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the full scope and tactical impact of the RF State Duma considering a bill for year-round conscription? What are the projected numbers, timeline, and impact on RF's long-term troop strength and mobilization efforts?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What are the specific details of the closure of airspace by Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania? What is the duration, extent (military vs. civilian), and specific trigger for this action, and what are the diplomatic implications with Russia? (STERNENKO message)
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA of the UAF MiG-29 aerial attack in Zaporizhzhia, specifically targeting the "invaders' battalion headquarters"? What specific RF unit was targeted, what was the impact on personnel and equipment, and what UAF unit executed the strike? (Оперативний ЗСУ video)
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA and operational impact of the 100th Separate Mechanized Brigade's strikes on an RF tank, BBBM, and personnel? What specific RF units were targeted, and what were the locations of these engagements? (STERNENKO video 16:41:23)
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the tactical significance of the drone footage from "Воин DV" (16:36:59)? Are the camouflaged vehicles and ATVs specifically identified RF assets, and what is the current threat level posed by such movements?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the specific context and BDA of the "enemy heavy hexacopter" whose control channels were reportedly overwhelmed by RF "Vostok" Group's UAV operators in Dnepropetrovsk region (MoD Russia 16:37:49)? What UAF unit was operating it, and what was its mission?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What are the full details and implications of Poland's Foreign Minister Sikorski acknowledging that some drones violating Polish airspace came from Ukraine, not solely Belarus (TASS 17:01:12)? Does this imply a change in the official Polish narrative or a new intelligence assessment shared by NATO? How does this impact NATO's collective defense planning and messaging?
• HIGH: What is the exact damage assessment and long-term operational impact of the HUR strike on the RF Black Sea Fleet Project MPSV07 vessel near Novorossiysk? How long will repairs take, and how does this affect RF maritime operations in the Black Sea?
• HIGH: What is the specific BDA and the full impact of the RF assault groups using the "Potok" ("Kursk pipe") method for infiltration on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction? What are the defensive countermeasures required for such subterranean/culvert-based movements?
• HIGH: What are NATO's specific military Rules of Engagement (ROE) and force posture changes following the Article 4 consultation regarding future RF incursions? What are RF's strategic red lines for a direct NATO military response?
• HIGH: What is the strength, composition, and immediate objective of RF second-echelon forces positioned to exploit the Pokrovsk breakthrough?
• HIGH: What is the specific military significance of the restrictions imposed at the airports of Ivanovo, Pskov, Yaroslavl, and St. Petersburg overnight? Are these linked to UAF deep strikes or internal RF security incidents, and what assets/operations are affected? TASS reports restrictions lifted for Ivanovo, Yaroslavl, and Pskov, reducing this gap's scope.
• HIGH: What is the specific target and BDA of the allegedly destroyed ammunition depot in occupied Luhansk, and what UAF assets were responsible for this strike?
• HIGH: What is the exact status and operational implications of RF control over Kolodyazi on the Krasny Liman direction? What UAF units were defending, and what are the immediate RF intentions following this alleged capture?
• HIGH: What is the specific military significance of the traffic jam reported towards Khartsyzk, including the presence of military-style trucks? Does this indicate a RF logistical movement, increased security, or a response to an incident?
• HIGH: What is the confirmed success rate and methodology of RF snipers against UAF "Baba Yaga" drones? What counter-measures are effective against this new RF tactical adaptation?
• HIGH: What is the verifiable BDA for the purported "Rubizh" brigade funding drive for destroyed property/equipment? Does this indicate systemic logistical issues or localized combat losses?
• HIGH: What is the full impact and the intent behind RF FSB detaining a Russian citizen in Klimovsk for allegedly financing UAF and planning to join combat? Is this an isolated incident or part of a broader internal security crackdown?
• HIGH: What is the specific impact of the observed geomagetic disturbances on military C2, ISR, or navigation systems for both UAF and RF forces?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA and context of the RF FAB guided aerial bomb strikes on UAF positions in Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast?
• HIGH (NEW): What specific capabilities are being tested in RF's "heavy drone evading EW"? What is its current stage of development and potential deployment timeline?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the specific impact of the internal RF investigation and charges against the ex-commander of a military unit in Lviv Oblast regarding million-dollar damages during army bed procurement? How does this affect UAF procurement and anti-corruption efforts?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the effectiveness of UAF's 79th Airmobile Brigade's drone hunter-killer operations against camouflaged RF soldiers, as depicted in the БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video? What counter-measures are RF soldiers employing?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA of the RF drone exhibition ("Дронница")? What new technologies were showcased, and what are their potential military implications?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the specific implications for RF naval operations in the Arctic Ocean from the Northern Fleet deployments during "West-2025"?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the full context and impact of the "Воин DV" comment on Ukraine's delayed admission of territorial losses?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the full BDA and contextual information for the image of three Russian soldiers in "Два майора"'s video, given their expressions of gratitude for donations? What specific armored vehicle was donated, and what is its operational status?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the military significance of AV БогомаZ's photo message? Is it related to combat operations or purely internal messaging?
• HIGH (NEW): What are the specific military intelligence value of the multiple photo messages of EW personnel shared by "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)"? Are there any identifiable equipment or unit markings?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the specific military intelligence value of the "СТИКЕРПАК «АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА»" photo messages? Are these for morale, recruitment, or commercial purposes?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the tactical significance of the "Кокаиновый мост" (Cocaine Bridge) map shared by Рыбарь? Does it imply RF counter-narcotics operations or an IO narrative related to UAF/Western illicit activities?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the full impact and the intent behind the "First ban on leaving the country due to the electronic register of subpoenas" reported by МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники? Does this indicate a new phase of RF mobilization or stricter enforcement?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the current status of Dmitry Bykov's case, accused of spreading false information about RF shelling of Kharkiv? What evidence is being presented by TASS?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the specific context and impact of "РБК-Україна" reporting on the departure abroad of young Ukrainian men (18-22) and its effect on business? Does this indicate a new mobilization trend or social concern?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the full context and impact of the internal RF IO concern raised by "Два майора" regarding "United Russia" candidates and diaspora leaders in regional elections? Does this indicate internal political friction relevant to the war effort?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the full significance of the memorial plaque for fallen defender Oleksandr Dokukin in Zaporizhzhia? What unit was he from, and does this indicate a recent casualty or a commemorative act?
• HIGH (NEW): What are the specific items seized in the "scheme of fictitious employment in 'fake' educational institutions to evade mobilization" in Kyiv, as reported by Офіс Генерального прокурора? Do they reveal any organizational structure or patterns?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the status of the 38 US M1A2 Abrams tanks reported to have arrived in Poland? Are they fully operational, and what are their intended deployment and role?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the specific military intelligence value of the civilian development projects (school, medical post, sports complex, greenhouse) in Zhurinichi, Bryansk Oblast, shared by AV БогомаZ? Are these located in close proximity to military installations or border areas?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the current status of the damaged house in Makeyevka, DPR, that was declared unsafe? Was the damage recent due to conflict, or an older issue that has only now been officially recognized?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the military significance of the RF MoD's summary of the SVO from 6-12 SEP, particularly regarding any new claims or changes in assessment of UAF capabilities and intentions? (Colonelcassad message)
• HIGH (NEW): What is the full military significance and BDA of the drone thermal imaging footage shared by "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" (17:01:38) showing a moving vehicle at night with a crosshair reticle? What type of vehicle was it, and was it targeted?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the military intelligence value of the civilian development projects detailed by "Игорь Артамонов" (16:54:04)? Are these projects indicative of a broader RF strategy to integrate occupied territories or specific border regions?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the full scope and tactical implications of the discussion by Shoigu and Belousov on economical management and digitalization within the RF MoD (Басурин о главном 16:53:41)? How will these changes impact RF's sustained war effort?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the full BDA and specific location of the drone strike by the 1st Separate Territorial Defense Brigade "Black Swarm" on a truck and a cannon in Bryansk Oblast (STERNENKO 16:41:23)? What were the specific types of targets, and what is the operational impact on RF logistics and artillery capabilities?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the full BDA and specific location of the RF "Vostok" Group's UAV operators overwhelming control channels of an enemy heavy hexacopter in Dnepropetrovsk region (MoD Russia 16:37:49)? What was the hexacopter's mission, and what is the impact on UAF ISR capabilities?
• HIGH (NEW): What are the precise details and implications of the NATO general's statement that "Operation Eastern Guardian" does not include integration with Ukrainian air defense (РБК-Україна 16:58:10)? Does this represent a shift in NATO policy or a clarification, and how does it affect UAF's long-term air defense strategy?
• MEDIUM: What are the specific capabilities and tactical applications of the newly delivered BMP-3s with enhanced protection and modernized BMD-2s? Where are these being deployed, and what is their immediate impact on RF ground combat effectiveness?
• MEDIUM: What is the full scope and impact of the RF army aviation operations in Kharkiv Oblast, Iziumskyi district, particularly near Borovska Andriyivka? What specific targets were engaged, and what UAF units were affected?
• MEDIUM: What is the current status and capacity of the newly built European gauge rail line from Uzhhorod to Budapest/Vienna for potential military/dual-use logistics?
• MEDIUM: What specific details are discernable from the "Novopavlovsk direction" tactical map screenshots shared by "Операция Z" and "Z комитет + карта СВО"? What do the symbols and territorial markings indicate about RF objectives and control in this sector?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the full context and impact of the detention of a woman in Kyiv for selling cars imported as humanitarian aid for UAF? How widespread is this issue, and what measures are being taken to prevent it?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the specific location and BDA of the UAF drone strike on a civilian vehicle in Shevchenkivska community, Kharkiv Oblast?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the specific tactical context of the raid actions by UAF's "Morok" assault battalion and the remote mining by "Pentagon" pilots in the rear of the RF 810th Brigade? What RF units were involved in the attempted interception?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the specific impact of the Central Bank of Russia lowering the key interest rate? What does this indicate about the broader RF economic situation and its ability to sustain the war effort? NEW: What is the specific impact of further interest rate reductions to 15% by end of 2025, as suggested by Aksakov?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What are the implications of the internal criminal case against former RF Ministry of Defense military representation head, Andrei Tyurin, for corruption?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What are the specifics of the relocated Malobilozerska specialized aesthetic school "Dyvosvit" in Zaporizhzhia, and how does its operation in a bomb shelter reflect civilian resilience?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the specific impact of the extension of pre-trial detention for NABU official Ruslan Magomedrasulov on Ukrainian anti-corruption efforts and public trust?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What are the specific discussions and outcomes from President Zelenskyy's meeting with Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, particularly regarding defense aid and joint weapons production?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the full scope and capabilities of the UAF BAS Fenix unit operating in Donetsk Oblast, and what is the specific BDA of their strikes on Russian logistics?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the specific evidence and full context of the State Bureau of Investigation (DBR) completing its investigation into Ukrainian MP Yevhen Shevchenko for treason and fraud? How might this impact UAF internal politics or public trust?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the specific content and messaging of the "Оберег артиллериста. Окопная проза «Адлера»" (artilleryman's amulet) propaganda, and what is its intended effect on troop morale?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the impact of Hungarian PM Orban's reiterated solidarity with Poland regarding drone incursions, despite previous RF efforts to portray disunity?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What are the specific capabilities and operational context of the 78th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Sever-Akhmat" as demonstrated by their artillery strikes?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the specific source, targeting, and impact of the Russian FPV drones appearing in central Kramatorsk?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the operational and intelligence value of the FPV drone footage showing a truck in the Iziumskyi district, Kharkiv Oblast?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the military intelligence value of the photo shared by "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" showing RF airborne troops on the Konstantinovka direction? What units are identifiable, and what tactical context does it provide? (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 message 16:10:29)
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the intelligence value of the detailed map shared by "Рыбарь" regarding "Army taking the East"? What specific geographical areas are depicted, and what do the markings imply about RF control or offensive intent? (Рыбарь message 16:19:02)
• MEDIUM (NEW): What are the specific capabilities and deployment status of RF mobile groups of marine special forces with FPV drones for coastal defense in Crimea, as shown in the "Два майора" video (16:59:03)? What is their primary mission and effectiveness against USV threats?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the current operational status and capabilities of the modified Lada Niva vehicles being supplied to RF forces, as shown in Colonelcassad's video (17:00:42)? What is their intended role in combat or logistics?
• LOW (NEW): What are the implications of the reported increase in basic food product prices in Ukraine, and the relative decrease in cabbage prices, for civilian morale and economic stability?
• LOW (NEW): What is the precise nature and impact of the reported "geomagnetic disturbances" on military operations or communication systems?
• LOW (NEW): What are the specific details of Sberbank's reduction in deposit rates and the overall impact on the RF financial sector and public confidence?
• LOW (NEW): What is the specific context and impact of the International Bobsleigh and Skeleton Federation's decision to exclude Russians from Olympic qualification?
• LOW (NEW): What is the full scope and intent of the State Duma's proposal to equate vapes to narcotics?
• LOW (NEW): What is the precise nature of the technical work causing temporary unavailability of the Alfa-Bank mobile application, and does it indicate any underlying cyber vulnerabilities?
• LOW (NEW): What is the full context and impact of the Coordination Staff for POWs meeting with families of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade? What specific information or support was provided, and what are the key concerns of the families?
• LOW (NEW): What are the specific actions being taken by the Coordination Staff for POWs in terms of public messaging, and what is their intended effect on families of missing persons and POWs?
• LOW (NEW): What is the significance of the Peterburg artist's administrative arrest in Vyborg due to lack of space in a Petersburg insulator, as reported by "Север.Реалии"? Does this reflect systemic issues in RF's judicial or detention system?
• LOW (NEW): What is the specific impact of the Central Bank of Russia lowering the key rate to 16%, and Nabiullina's statements on inflation and housing prices, on the broader RF economy and its ability to sustain the war effort?
• LOW (NEW): What is the military significance of TASS reporting on a cable car accident on Elbrus resulting in fatalities?
• LOW (NEW): What is the exact purpose and military significance of the images shared by "Полиция Хабаровского края" that do not depict military activity, but instead religious ceremonies, crypts, and civilian handshakes?
• LOW (NEW): What is the military significance of RF Human Rights Council head Fadeev discussing returning to oral exams in schools due to AI use? Does this indicate a broader RF concern about the impact of AI on education or a specific security concern?
• LOW (NEW): What is the full context and impact of the VChK-OGPU report on catastrophic water supply issues in occupied Donetsk Oblast and the potential for a social explosion? Does this represent a significant internal weakness for RF control?
• LOW (NEW): What are the specific goals and intended impact of Zelenskyy's statement about how to stop the war?
• LOW (NEW): What is the specific context and message behind Zelenskyy's humorous comparison of Kellogg's to air defense?
• LOW (NEW): What are the specific details and implications of the RF State Duma considering a bill for year-round conscription?
• LOW (NEW): What is the intelligence value of the cat image shared by Два майора? (Два майора message).
• LOW (NEW): What is the intelligence value of the Басурин о главном messages containing images of a nursery or medical facility? (Басурин о главном messages).
• LOW (NEW): What is the intelligence value of Alex Parker Returns' "Апчхи" photo message? (Alex Parker Returns message).
• LOW (NEW): What is the intelligence value of Alex Parker Returns' photo message about Tyler Robinson's father, and the dining scene? (Alex Parker Returns message).
• LOW (NEW): What is the intelligence value of the Басурин о главном messages recommending other channels? (Басурин о главном message).
• LOW (NEW): What is the intelligence value of the Colonelcassad message about Telegram bot failures and "bot counter-offensives" in comments? Does this reveal internal RF IO vulnerabilities or technical issues? (Colonelcassad message 16:10:08)
• LOW (NEW): What is the military intelligence value of the civilian traffic incident in Stavropol reported by TASS? (TASS message 16:26:01)
• LOW (NEW): What are the specific implications of Israel rejecting a UN GA resolution on a two-state solution? How does this influence RF or UAF diplomatic efforts or international support? (TASS message 16:33:03)
• LOW (NEW): What are the details of "Time for Friday repression" message from Colonelcassad? Is this military, political, or social in nature? (Colonelcassad message 16:33:01)
• LOW (NEW): What are the specific details regarding the "Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Weekly summary" video from 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦? Specifically, are there any identifiable military units mentioned or significant tactical developments beyond the humanitarian aid and infrastructure efforts? (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 message 16:24:29)
• LOW (NEW): What is the military significance of the announcement from РБК-Україна about Sibiga announcing exhumations of Ukrainian victims of the Volyn tragedy in Poland? Is this likely to impact current military operations or primarily a diplomatic/historical issue? (РБК-Україна message 16:32:57)
• LOW (NEW): What is the tactical significance of the drone footage showing a small toy airplane with text overlays satirizing Russian drone attacks, as shared by "Janus Putkonen" (16:50:33)? Is this a widespread IO tactic in Poland, and what is its effectiveness?
• LOW (NEW): What is the specific context and military intelligence value of the downed commercial quadcopter with "Терроризировать" (Terrorize) written on it, found in a cemetery, as shown in "Janus Putkonen"'s video (16:50:33)? Was this drone successfully intercepted by UAF, and what was its intended mission?

1.5. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures - Analysis of new messages (Confidence: HIGH)

• RF:
  • Ground Forces: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares a photo of RF airborne troops on the Konstantinovka direction, reinforcing continuous ground pressure in this sector. "Рыбарь" shares a map detailing RF forces "taking the East," indicating a sustained focus on offensive operations and territorial gains on the eastern front. NEW: "Воин DV" shares drone footage displaying aerial reconnaissance over urban and rural environments, showing military vehicles (trucks, ATV) with camouflage/protective measures, interspersed with Russian propaganda emblems and slogans, confirming continued RF ISR and ground presence. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares a video depicting drone thermal imaging footage of a moving vehicle at night, with a crosshair reticle, suggesting active RF surveillance or targeting. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "Два майора" shares video of mobile groups of marine special forces with FPV drones protecting the coast of Crimea from uncrewed surface vessels (BEC) and other threats at night, showing drone deployment and monitoring, highlighting specialized RF coastal defense capabilities. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad shares video of Lada Niva vehicles being painted in matte green camouflage, indicating ongoing volunteer efforts to supply modified civilian vehicles for RF forces. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Air/Missile Forces: "Военкор Котенок" shares photo of wreckage of a Ukrainian Su-27, claimed to be shot down yesterday in Zaporizhzhia, indicating successful RF air defense or air-to-air engagement, thereby impacting UAF air capabilities. NEW: MoD Russia shares a video of Russian military personnel preparing and deploying a multi-rotor drone in a dry, grassy, open field environment, likely for reconnaissance or surveillance, confirming ongoing RF drone operations. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: MoD Russia reports that in Dnepropetrovsk region, operators of the Vostok Group's UAVs successfully overwhelmed control channels of an enemy heavy hexacopter, indicating effective RF counter-UAV capabilities. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Naval Forces: None explicitly mentioned in new messages.
  • Information Warfare (IO): TASS report of Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski stating Poland sees no reason to sever diplomatic relations with Russia is a significant development for RF IO. While potentially a diplomatic setback if RF was hoping for a more aggressive NATO stance, RF can frame this as a sign of Poland's pragmatism or a weakening of NATO's resolve. ASTRA and Alex Parker Returns amplifying Pavel Durov's statement on Charlie Kirk's death being an "assault on free speech" continues RF's strategy of leveraging US domestic events for anti-Western IO. Alex Parker Returns' post about Tyler Robinson's father and the alleged $100k payment, framed as "Being good!", is a highly inflammatory IO tactic to imply financial incentives for violence and further demonize the event, linking it to the broader anti-Western narrative. Басурин о главном recommending other pro-SVO channels reinforces RF's network-centric IO and community building within the milblogger space. NEW: RBC-Україна reports Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski stated that intensified attacks after the Alaska summit indicate Putin's intent to continue the war, which RF IO will attempt to counter by denying this interpretation or blaming UAF for provocation (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: ASTRA and "Операция Z" amplify Polish FM Sikorski's statement that NATO is not fighting Russia, but Russia is fighting NATO through Ukraine, providing a clear Western framing of the conflict which RF IO will likely address through denial of direct engagement and continued blame of Ukraine (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: Colonelcassad provides a weekly summary of the Special Military Operation from 6 to 12 September 2025, from the RF MoD, demonstrating RF's systematic effort to control the narrative of the conflict over time (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: TASS reports Israel rejects a UN General Assembly resolution on a two-state solution, calling the assembly a "political circus," which RF can leverage to reinforce narratives of a chaotic international order and the futility of UN actions without RF's direct involvement (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: Colonelcassad's message about Telegram bot failures and a "counter-offensive of bot accounts" highlights RF's awareness of IO vulnerabilities within its own platforms and indicates ongoing efforts to manage the information space (Confidence: MEDIUM). NEW: TASS shares a photo message of Pavel Durov's statement identifying Charlie Kirk's death as an "assault on free speech," reinforcing RF's strategy of leveraging US domestic events for anti-Western IO. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad amplifies Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski's statement that NATO is not fighting Russia, but Russia is fighting NATO through Ukraine, providing a critical Western framing that RF IO will attempt to counter. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares a video celebrating Sergey Parchevsky, a boxing trainer and DPR People's Council deputy, focusing on his commitment to sports and community in Donbas amidst conflict, a form of internal morale-boosting propaganda. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "Janus Putkonen" (Finnish milblogger) shares multiple videos (memes) from Poland satirizing the "Russian drone attack," as well as a video of a downed commercial drone with "Терроризировать" (Terrorize) written on it. This indicates RF-aligned milbloggers are actively using humor and documented incidents to shape narratives around drone attacks and Ukrainian actions. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "РБК-Україна" reports a NATO general states "Operation Eastern Guardian" does not include integration with Ukrainian air defense, which RF IO could leverage to highlight perceived limitations of NATO support for Ukraine. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Polish FM Sikorski acknowledged some drones violating Polish airspace came from Ukraine, not solely Belarus. This is a significant development that RF IO will immediately leverage to shift blame for airspace violations and undermine the narrative of exclusive Russian aggression. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "Игорь Артамонов" shares video depicting civilian development projects, including school construction and kindergarten renovation. This represents local RF IO to project normalcy and development, particularly in regions that may have proximity to the conflict or receive support from the government. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "Басурин о главном" shares video of a Russian Ministry of Defense meeting discussing economical management principles and digitalization, featuring Shoigu and Belousov. This is a domestic IO effort to project efficiency and modernization within the RF military. (Confidence: HIGH)
• UAF:
  • Air/Missile Forces: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy UAVs on Chernihiv Oblast moving towards Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorod district), requiring UAF air defense to be active in the capital region. NEW: "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares a video of a UAF MiG-29 conducting an aerial attack in Zaporizhzhia, targeting what is described as "invaders' battalion headquarters," demonstrating continued UAF aerial combat operations (Confidence: MEDIUM).
  • Information Warfare (IO): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares video of a youth conference focused on resilience and future prospects, featuring Ukrainian flags and motivational messages. This is a clear UAF IO effort to boost morale, encourage national unity, and project a positive future despite the conflict. РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ amplifying Rutte's statement on NATO launching "Eastern Guardian" to strengthen its eastern flank in response to Russian drone incursions into Poland demonstrates UAF's effective use of allied statements to highlight NATO's commitment and RF's aggressive actions. РБК-Україна reports that "Резерв+" (Reserve+ app) functionality will be limited for several hours, indicating a technical issue or planned maintenance, which UAF will need to manage carefully to avoid negative public sentiment regarding mobilization efforts. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 provides a weekly summary video highlighting enemy shelling, UAF support (vehicles, drones), and preparations for winter, serving as a comprehensive IO piece to inform and reassure the public while demonstrating ongoing resilience and support from allies (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: РБК-Україна's report on Sibiga announcing exhumations of Ukrainian victims of the Volyn tragedy in Poland indicates UAF's continued diplomatic efforts to address sensitive historical issues with key allies, which could be leveraged for IO to strengthen ties with Poland (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: "STERNENKO" shares drone footage indicating successful strikes by the 100th Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBr) against an RF tank, armored fighting vehicle (BBBM), and personnel. The video also shows extensive damage to urban areas. This serves as a significant UAF IO effort to highlight combat effectiveness and RF losses. (Confidence: HIGH)
• NATO:
  • NATO is launching "Operation Eastern Guardian" to strengthen its eastern flank in response to Russian drone incursions into Poland, as reported by РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (citing Rutte). This signifies a direct, coordinated military response to RF hybrid actions, increasing NATO's forward presence and readiness. Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania have partially closed their airspace (STERNENKO), indicating a heightened state of alert and direct defensive measures. NEW: Polish FM Sikorski's statements on Putin's intent to continue the war and Russia fighting NATO through Ukraine provide a unified, clear narrative from a key NATO member, reinforcing the alliance's stance (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: ASTRA reports that Lithuania and Estonia have closed their airspace for the duration of the Russian-Belarusian military exercises "West-2025." This is a defensive control measure by NATO allies in response to regional military activity. (Confidence: HIGH)

1.6. Intelligence Gaps - New messages (Confidence: HIGH)

• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the specific nature and objectives of NATO's "Operation Eastern Guardian"? What forces are being deployed, where, and what are their specific ROE? How does this operation interact with "West-2025" exercises? (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS messages)
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the full extent and impact of the partial airspace closures by Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania? What specific airspace is affected, for what duration, and what military and civilian air operations are impacted? What are the implications for potential UAF air asset relocation? (STERNENKO message)
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA and verified impact of the UAF drone strike on at least two tanks at the Transneft oil pumping station "Vtorovo" in Vladimir Oblast? What is the estimated repair time and economic impact? (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС satellite imagery)
• CRITICAL (NEW): What are the full details and implications of Poland's Foreign Minister Sikorski acknowledging that some drones violating Polish airspace came from Ukraine, not solely Belarus (TASS 17:01:12)? Does this imply a change in the official Polish narrative or a new intelligence assessment shared by NATO? How does this impact NATO's collective defense planning and messaging?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the current disposition and immediate objective of the RF UAVs detected over Chernihiv Oblast moving towards Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorod district)? What UAF air defense assets are engaged? (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine message)
• HIGH (NEW): What is the specific context and operational implications of RF arbitral court introducing bankruptcy proceedings against Russian assets of Volkswagen AG? Does this indicate broader state seizure of foreign assets, and what is the potential impact on RF's industrial and economic capacity to sustain the war? (ТАСС message)
• HIGH (NEW): What is the precise nature and duration of the "Резерв+" app functional limitations? Is this a technical issue, a security measure, or an update related to mobilization? What is the impact on UAF mobilization efforts and public perception? (РБК-Україна message)
• HIGH (NEW): What is the full operational and intelligence value of the "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" weekly summary video? Are there any identifiable military units mentioned or specific tactical developments beyond the humanitarian aid and infrastructure efforts? (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 message 16:24:29)
• HIGH (NEW): What is the specific military intelligence value of the drone footage from "Воин DV" (16:36:59)? Are the camouflaged vehicles and ATVs specifically identified RF assets, and what is the current threat level posed by such movements?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the specific context and BDA of the "enemy heavy hexacopter" whose control channels were reportedly overwhelmed by RF "Vostok" Group's UAV operators in Dnepropetrovsk region (MoD Russia 16:37:49)? What UAF unit was operating it, and what was its mission?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the specific military intelligence value of the drone thermal imaging footage shared by "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" (17:01:38) showing a moving vehicle at night with a crosshair reticle? What type of vehicle was it, and was it targeted?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the full BDA and specific location of the drone strike by the 1st Separate Territorial Defense Brigade "Black Swarm" on a truck and a cannon in Bryansk Oblast (STERNENKO 16:41:23)? What were the specific types of targets, and what is the operational impact on RF logistics and artillery capabilities?
• HIGH (NEW): What are the precise details and implications of the NATO general's statement that "Operation Eastern Guardian" does not include integration with Ukrainian air defense (РБК-Україна 16:58:10)? Does this represent a shift in NATO policy or a clarification, and how does it affect UAF's long-term air defense strategy?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What are the implications of the anticipated frosts (-2°C) in some areas of Moscow region for RF military logistics and personnel? (Новости Москвы message)
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the intelligence value of Pavel Durov's statement on Charlie Kirk's death, as amplified by ASTRA? Is there any specific element that could be leveraged for IO or counter-IO? (ASTRA message)
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the military intelligence value of the civilian development projects detailed by "Игорь Артамонов" (16:54:04)? Are these projects indicative of a broader RF strategy to integrate occupied territories or specific border regions?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the full scope and tactical implications of the discussion by Shoigu and Belousov on economical management and digitalization within the RF MoD (Басурин о главном 16:53:41)? How will these changes impact RF's sustained war effort?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What are the specific capabilities and deployment status of RF mobile groups of marine special forces with FPV drones for coastal defense in Crimea, as shown in the "Два майора" video (16:59:03)? What is their primary mission and effectiveness against USV threats?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the current operational status and capabilities of the modified Lada Niva vehicles being supplied to RF forces, as shown in Colonelcassad's video (17:00:42)? What is their intended role in combat or logistics?
• LOW (NEW): What is the intelligence value of the cat image shared by Два майора? (Два майора message).
• LOW (NEW): What is the intelligence value of the Басурин о главном messages containing images of a nursery or medical facility? (Басурин о главном messages).
• LOW (NEW): What is the specific intelligence value of Alex Parker Returns' "Апчхи" photo message? (Alex Parker Returns message).
• LOW (NEW): What is the intelligence value of Alex Parker Returns' photo message about Tyler Robinson's father, and the dining scene? (Alex Parker Returns message).
• LOW (NEW): What is the intelligence value of the Басурин о главном messages recommending other channels? (Басурин о главном message).
• LOW (NEW): What is the intelligence value of the Colonelcassad message about Telegram bot failures and "bot counter-offensives" in comments? Does this reveal internal RF IO vulnerabilities or technical issues? (Colonelcassad message 16:10:08)
• LOW (NEW): What is the military intelligence value of the civilian traffic incident in Stavropol reported by TASS? (TASS message 16:26:01)
• LOW (NEW): What are the specific implications of Israel rejecting a UN GA resolution on a two-state solution? How does this influence RF or UAF diplomatic efforts or international support? (TASS message 16:33:03)
• LOW (NEW): What are the details of "Time for Friday repression" message from Colonelcassad? Is this military, political, or social in nature? (Colonelcassad message 16:33:01)
• LOW (NEW): What are the specific details regarding the "Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Weekly summary" video from 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦? Specifically, are there any identifiable military units mentioned or significant tactical developments beyond the humanitarian aid and infrastructure efforts? (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 message 16:24:29)
• LOW (NEW): What is the military significance of the announcement from РБК-Україна about Sibiga announcing exhumations of Ukrainian victims of the Volyn tragedy in Poland? Is this likely to impact current military operations or primarily a diplomatic/historical issue? (РБК-Україна message 16:32:57)
• LOW (NEW): What is the tactical significance of the drone footage showing a small toy airplane with text overlays satirizing Russian drone attacks, as shared by "Janus Putkonen" (16:50:33)? Is this a widespread IO tactic in Poland, and what is its effectiveness?
• LOW (NEW): What is the specific context and military intelligence value of the downed commercial quadcopter with "Терроризировать" (Terrorize) written on it, found in a cemetery, as shown in "Janus Putkonen"'s video (16:50:33)? Was this drone successfully intercepted by UAF, and what was its intended mission?

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (Confidence: HIGH)

• Capabilities:

  • Sustained Ground Offensive with Massed Forces & Expanded Scope: RF demonstrates the capability for sustained, multi-axis ground offensives, achieving localized breakthroughs (Pokrovsk, Siversk, Lyman, Konstantinovka, Kirovsk, Novomykolaivka, Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye), urban combat, and deploying new robotic systems ('Kur'er'). Confirmed capability for new advances and "liberation" in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye, Novomykolaivka), a significant expansion of operational scope, with objectives to encircle UAF forces in Velykomykhailivka. Rosgvardia has been armed with tank/anti-tank guns, SPGs, and MLRS, enhancing RF's ground combat capability. RF has specialized armored units ("Terminator") and a T-90M Proryv tank capability against UAF UAV command posts. RF is proficient in FPV drone operations for close-quarters combat and strikes on urban positions (e.g., Polohy direction) and against UAF artillery logistics (e.g., 155mm charge destruction). RF units can conduct integrated ISR and direct engagement on multiple fronts (e.g., South Donetsk). RF is capable of managing combat casualties and maintaining medical support. RF is also employing non-standard vehicles (buggies, ATVs, motorcycles) for tactical purposes. RF airborne units can conduct offensive actions. RF demonstrates enhanced homeland air defense capabilities against mass drone attacks, claiming 221 UAVs shot down overnight, and effectively downing 33 UAVs in the latest wave. RF demonstrates capability to conduct large-scale, multi-domain military training through the "West-2025" exercises, including naval power projection. RF demonstrates capability for effective counter-drone operations using snipers against heavy strike UAVs ("Baba Yaga"). RF's Southern Grouping of Forces can destroy UAF UAV control posts and Starlink antennas, impacting UAF C2. RF demonstrates sustained military industrial production and modernization capabilities, delivering new BMP-3s and modernized BMD-2s to troops, as further confirmed by Poddubny. RF army aviation provides direct air support for ground advances (e.g., Iziumskyi district, Zaporizhzhia). The RF 68th ORB demonstrates capability for precise counter-C2 strikes against UAF communications (Starlink). RF "Sparta" battalion demonstrates capability for precision FPV drone strikes to destroy UAF UAV control points and communication antennas. RF is reportedly testing a "heavy drone evading EW," indicating an advanced counter-EW capability in development. RF 215th Combined Arms Army demonstrates combat training with AGS-17 Plamya, indicating continued readiness in the SVO zone. RF shows capability for active drone operations against Hryshyno. RF demonstrates ability to use military chaplains to support and motivate troops. RF "Anvar" special forces demonstrate capability to conduct thermal imaging drone-assisted attacks on convoys, supporting offensive operations on the Sumy axis. RF demonstrates a significant and sustained offensive tempo, claiming daily advances of up to 40 km² per day. MoD Russia claims capability to strike Ukrainian defense industry, transport, energy infrastructure, military airfields, and depots from 6-12 September, demonstrating sustained, high-precision strike capabilities. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows RF capability for active combat operations with drone surveillance and targeting, including destruction of military vehicles. "Воин DV" video shows RF capability for active FPV drone operations, engaging light vehicles and personnel. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video confirms RF capability for large-scale, multi-branch exercises ("West-2025") with strategic assets (bombers, submarines). Оперативний ЗСУ highlights RF's increasing use of FPV "Zhduny" (ambush) drones, indicating a specialized FPV drone tactic. "Два майора" video acknowledging donations suggests RF reliance on public support for armored vehicles and batteries. Colonelcassad's video on "4th auto column" demonstrates RF's ability to mobilize volunteer efforts for vehicle supply and modification. "Воин DV"'s video from Zaporizhzhia demonstrates RF's capability to operate evacuation groups under fire and highlights identification of enemy weapons (Turkish self-loading rifle). "Старше Эдды" video implies RF capability in reactive artillery operations. New video from "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shows Russian border guards destroying UAF equipment, infantry, and positions on the Bryansk-Chernihiv direction, indicating a sustained cross-border interdiction capability. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" videos showcasing new Russian UGVs ('Kurier', 'Fagot') for direct fire support, mine-laying, and reconnaissance, representing a significant technological advancement in ground combat. "Старше Эдды" video featuring Senior Lieutenant Ivan Kurbatov from the 90th Tank Division demonstrates RF's operational capability with modern tanks in assault operations and their ability to integrate combat footage into morale-boosting propaganda. Colonelcassad's report on a destroyed UAF PVD and automotive equipment in Sumy Oblast indicates RF's capability to conduct effective localized strikes against UAF rear area assets. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition's video of RF forces operating a captured hexacopter "Baba Yaga" demonstrates RF's adaptive capability to integrate and exploit captured enemy technology for its own combat operations. Kadyrov_95 shares video footage of the 78th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Sever-Akhmat" conducting artillery strikes on enemy positions, demonstrating active combat operations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports the appearance of Russian FPV drones in the central part of Kramatorsk, indicating RF's capability to conduct FPV operations deep within UAF-controlled urban areas. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares FPV drone footage showing a truck on a dirt road in a wooded area in the Iziumskyi district of Kharkiv Oblast, confirming RF's continuous FPV drone reconnaissance and targeting capabilities in this sector. Военкор Котенок's aerial footage of Vovchansk indicates RF's sustained destructive capability in urban warfare, likely from artillery and air strikes. NEW: "Рыбарь" map "Армия берет восток" (Army takes the East) visually confirms RF's ability to document and publicize territorial gains, reinforcing a narrative of successful offensive operations (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" photo of airborne troops on the Konstantinovka direction confirms RF's ability to maintain a strong ground presence in key offensive sectors (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: "Воин DV" video displays RF's capability for aerial reconnaissance over urban and rural environments, showcasing military vehicles and demonstrating their ability to operate in contested areas. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" video shows RF's capability for active drone surveillance and potentially targeting of vehicles at night using thermal imaging. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "Два майора" video highlights RF marine special forces' capability in coastal defense operations, effectively using FPV drones against USVs and other threats, particularly at night. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad video confirms RF's reliance on volunteer efforts for vehicle supply, demonstrating a capability to mobilize public support for logistical needs. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Ballistic Missile Strike Capability (North and Kursk Oblast): RF has the capability to conduct long-range precision strikes from the north and from Kursk Oblast, including against residential areas.
  • Drone Swarm Capability (Zaporizhzhia): RF maintains the capability to conduct persistent drone attacks, potentially in coordinated swarms, against key urban centers.
  • Adaptive FPV Drone Operations: RF is increasingly employing FPV drones for specialized tactical roles, demonstrating effective targeting against high-value assets and personnel, including against UAF transport concealed in forest belts and in combat zones (Polohy direction) and against artillery ammunition stores, and against UAF UAV control posts and communications. RF's use of FPV "Zhduny" drones indicates an adaptive and evolving FPV drone doctrine. The reported presence of Russian FPV drones in central Kramatorsk indicates a further adaptation to conduct operations deep within UAF-controlled urban areas.
  • Persistent IO and Cyber Operations (Highly Adaptive): RF maintains a robust capability for multi-layered information warfare, including rapid adaptation to new narratives, highly inflammatory accusations (e.g., TCC priest incident, Charlie Kirk assassination related narratives), and efforts to sow discord. RF is capable of immediate and coordinated IO, generating and disseminating narratives of Western weakness (e.g., Trump's comments), exploiting US internal events, and attempting to discredit Western media. RF conducts internal IO to reinforce domestic support and justify the conflict, including youth indoctrination and promoting nationalistic religious events. RF is capable of proactively shaping battlefield narratives (e.g., "looting" in Krasny Liman, "correct behavior" by RF troops, discrediting NATO drone claims, denying damage in Smolensk, blaming UAF for Myrotvorets listing of children). RF also demonstrates the capability for internal security operations against alleged pro-Ukrainian individuals, leveraged for propaganda. RF is capable of projecting long-term strategic goals (e.g., capture of Odesa and Mykolaiv by 2027). RF also intends to continue targeting UAF UAV C2 and communications. RF intends to actively conduct drone operations to support ground advances (e.g., Hryshyno, new combat video). RF intends to accelerate the pace of offensive operations, as indicated by its internal assessments. RF intends to use advanced FPV drone tactics, like "Zhduny," to ambush UAF forces. The confirmed start of "West-2025" exercises will likely coincide with or support some level of offensive or deterrent activity, possibly involving multi-branch deployments. RF will also continue cross-border interdiction operations, particularly on the Bryansk-Chernihiv direction. RF intends to utilize its new robotic ground vehicles ('Kurier', 'Fagot') to enhance offensive operations, mine-laying, and close support. RF intends to leverage tank units like the 90th Tank Division for assault operations. RF intends to continue localized strikes against UAF rear area assets, as demonstrated in Sumy Oblast. RF intends to adapt and exploit captured UAF equipment for its own operations. RF intends to use FPV drones in deep urban areas like Kramatorsk to increase pressure and conduct reconnaissance/strikes. RF intends to use formations like the 78th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Sever-Akhmat" for effective combat operations, including artillery strikes. RF intends to use FPV drone operations for continuous reconnaissance and targeting in key areas like the Iziumskyi district. RF intends to maintain destructive urban warfare on axes like Vovchansk. NEW: RF intends to counter narratives about Putin's intent to continue the war, as articulated by Polish FM Sikorski (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: RF IO will continue to frame NATO's involvement as indirect conflict, with Russia fighting NATO through Ukraine, as stated by Polish FM Sikorski, to justify its own actions and discredit Western support (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: RF will continue to use official MoD summaries to frame the conflict narrative and project operational success (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: RF IO demonstrates capability to leverage international political events (Israel/UN GA) to portray global instability and divert attention (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: Colonelcassad's message indicates RF has the capability to monitor and identify "bot counter-offensives" within Telegram, demonstrating a focus on internal information control and the ability to detect and comment on such activities (Confidence: MEDIUM). NEW: TASS shares a photo message of Pavel Durov's statement identifying Charlie Kirk's death as an "assault on free speech," reinforcing RF's strategy of leveraging US domestic events for anti-Western IO. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad amplifies Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski's statement that NATO is not fighting Russia, but Russia is fighting NATO through Ukraine, providing a critical Western framing that RF IO will attempt to counter. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares a video celebrating Sergey Parchevsky, a boxing trainer and DPR People's Council deputy, focusing on his commitment to sports and community in Donbas amidst conflict, a form of internal morale-boosting propaganda. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "Janus Putkonen" (Finnish milblogger) shares multiple videos (memes) from Poland satirizing the "Russian drone attack," as well as a video of a downed commercial drone with "Терроризировать" (Terrorize) written on it. This indicates RF-aligned milbloggers are actively using humor and documented incidents to shape narratives around drone attacks and Ukrainian actions. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Polish FM Sikorski acknowledged some drones violating Polish airspace came from Ukraine, not solely Belarus. This is a significant development that RF IO will immediately leverage to shift blame for airspace violations and undermine the narrative of exclusive Russian aggression. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "Игорь Артамонов" shares video depicting civilian development projects, including school construction and kindergarten renovation. This represents local RF IO to project normalcy and development, particularly in regions that may have proximity to the conflict or receive support from the government. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "Басурин о главном" shares video of a Russian Ministry of Defense meeting discussing economical management principles and digitalization, featuring Shoigu and Belousov. This is a domestic IO effort to project efficiency and modernization within the RF military. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Overwhelming Long-Range Strike & Air Presence (Escalated Volume): RF maintains overwhelming long-range strike capability (Iskander-K, Shaheds, KABs, cruise missiles), capable of massed, multi-platform, and precision strikes against critical DIB, energy, and national C2 infrastructure, as well as residential areas. RF army aviation provides close air support, including FAB guided aerial bombs. TASS reports RF capability to attack nuclear power plants, as demonstrated by the Smolensk NPP incident, even if for ancillary facilities. RF milbloggers are amplifying the Smolensk NPP attack, framing it as "nuclear terrorism," indicating a capability to rapidly frame events for propaganda. Росатом's statement implies RF capability to downplay damage to sensitive targets like nuclear power plants. NEW: "Военкор Котенок" sharing wreckage of a UAF Su-27 demonstrates RF's capability to document and publicize UAF air losses, likely for morale-boosting and IO (Confidence: HIGH).
  • Homeland Air Defense: RF demonstrates capability to defend its capital and critical infrastructure against aerial threats. RF has successfully repelled over 30 UAVs in Rostov Oblast and destroyed over 30 UAVs in Leningrad Oblast, demonstrating robust air defense against mass deep strikes. RF is also capable of rapid response and damage mitigation at critical naval infrastructure, as demonstrated at Primorsk port. RF claims a high number of UAVs downed (221 overnight). RF is capable of quickly restoring civilian air traffic after drone incidents (e.g., Pskov, Krasnodar). NEW: MoD Russia shares a video of Russian military personnel preparing and deploying a multi-rotor drone in a dry, grassy, open field environment, likely for reconnaissance or surveillance. This confirms RF's ongoing drone operations and their capability to launch ISR assets. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: MoD Russia reports that in Dnepropetrovsk region, operators of the Vostok Group's UAVs successfully overwhelmed control channels of an enemy heavy hexacopter. This highlights RF's capability to conduct effective counter-UAV operations, including against more advanced enemy drones. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Naval Power Projection: Demonstrated capability to conduct naval exercises with multi-branch assets, including submarines and strategic bombers, in the Baltic and Barents Seas as part of "West-2025." The deployment of the Northern Fleet for "West-2025" confirms capability for large-scale, multi-domain naval exercises, including surface and subsurface assets. The Pacific Fleet's planned exercises with nuclear submarines and Bastion coastal missile systems further demonstrate large-scale naval power projection across different RF fleets. TASS reports Northern Fleet deployed forces in the Arctic Ocean for "West-2025" exercises. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video confirms RF capability for large-scale naval exercises with multiple assets. NEW: "Два майора" video highlights RF marine special forces' capability in coastal defense operations, effectively using FPV drones against USVs and other threats, particularly at night. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Economic Resilience (Adaptation): RF Central Bank's decision to lower the key interest rate for the third time indicates an adaptive economic policy to manage inflation and maintain economic stability under sanctions. RF demonstrates capacity to target the energy sector and youth militarization through sanctions (Japan on Alabuga and "new pioneers"). VTB's rate reductions for consumer loans, mortgages, and auto loans reflect a coordinated economic response to the Central Bank's policy, aiming to stimulate domestic consumption and maintain economic stability. Sberbank is lowering deposit rates from 15 September, further indicating adaptive economic policy to manage financial conditions. Aksakov's statement regarding further interest rate reductions projects confidence in RF's economic adaptation and ability to sustain the war effort. TASS reports on Central Bank rate reductions and Nabiullina's statements indicate an adaptive strategy for economic messaging. TASS reports Nabiullina discussing increased housing construction and prices, demonstrating RF's capability to use economic data for domestic IO, while also revealing a housing affordability challenge. TASS reports the Central Bank is concerned about unsubstantiated blocking of citizen funds and will take measures, demonstrating a capability for internal financial regulation and public reassurance. TASS reports on Nabiullina's statements on inflation and the Central Bank's policy, reinforcing RF's capability to project economic stability. RF arbitral court introducing bankruptcy proceedings against Russian assets of Volkswagen AG indicates a capability for state-level economic retaliation and asset seizure, which could be replicated against other foreign companies.
  • Internal Control & Accountability: The criminal case against a former head of RF Ministry of Defense military representation, Andrei Tyurin, indicates internal mechanisms for addressing corruption and abuse of power within the defense sector.
  • Domestic Policy Adaptation: RF State Duma considering equating vapes to narcotics indicates domestic policy focus beyond the immediate conflict, potentially to address social issues or for internal control. RF Human Rights Council head Fadeev highlights the capability to adapt education policy in response to new technologies like AI. TASS reports the State Duma may consider a bill for year-round conscription on September 24th, indicating a capability to rapidly implement significant changes in military personnel policy to sustain troop numbers.

• Intentions:

  • Achieve Decisive Breakthrough on Pokrovsk Axis and Expand Dnipropetrovsk/Lyman/Sumy/Novopavlovsk Offensive: RF's primary intent is to exploit current breakthroughs to gain significant operational depth on the Pokrovsk axis and to consolidate and expand the new salient at Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye, and Novomykolaivka, threatening Velykomykhailivka. RF intends to maintain pressure on urban areas (e.g., Vovchansk, Chasiv Yar, Kramatorsk) and degrade UAF artillery. RF also intends to initiate or expand offensive actions on the Sumy direction (Yunakovka) and continue advances on the Krasny Liman direction, including the claimed capture of Kolodyazi and Kirovsk. RF intends to break through UAF defenses near Predtechino and Pleshcheyevka to further advance on Konstantinovka. The reported advances on Pokrovsk-Myrnograd and Novopavlovsk direction further confirm this intent, including around Velykomykhailivka and Novoivanivka. RF intends to sustain these operations until strategic objectives, such as the capture of Odesa and Mykolaiv, are met (projected 2027). RF also intends to continue targeting UAF UAV C2 and communications. RF intends to actively conduct drone operations to support ground advances (e.g., Hryshyno, new combat video). RF intends to accelerate the pace of offensive operations, as indicated by its internal assessments. RF intends to use advanced FPV drone tactics, like "Zhduny," to ambush UAF forces. The confirmed start of "West-2025" exercises will likely coincide with or support some level of offensive or deterrent activity, possibly involving multi-branch deployments. RF will also continue cross-border interdiction operations, particularly on the Bryansk-Chernihiv direction. RF intends to utilize its new robotic ground vehicles ('Kurier', 'Fagot') to enhance offensive operations, mine-laying, and close support. RF intends to leverage tank units like the 90th Tank Division for assault operations. RF intends to continue localized strikes against UAF rear area assets, as demonstrated in Sumy Oblast. RF intends to adapt and exploit captured UAF equipment for its own operations. RF intends to use FPV drones in deep urban areas like Kramatorsk to increase pressure and conduct reconnaissance/strikes. RF intends to use formations like the 78th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Sever-Akhmat" for effective combat operations, including artillery strikes. RF intends to use FPV drone operations for continuous reconnaissance and targeting in key areas like the Iziumskyi district. RF intends to maintain destructive urban warfare on axes like Vovchansk. NEW: RF's intent to continue offensive operations on the eastern front is confirmed by the "Рыбарь" map (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: RF intends to maintain pressure on the Konstantinovka direction, as evidenced by the presence of airborne troops (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: "Воин DV" drone footage indicates RF's intent for continuous aerial reconnaissance and documentation of military movements and potentially propaganda dissemination. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" video demonstrates RF's intent to conduct sustained drone surveillance and targeting operations, particularly at night. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "Два майора" video on marine special forces in Crimea indicates RF's intent to maintain robust coastal defenses against USV threats using FPV drones. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad's video about the "4th auto column" highlights RF's intent to sustain and enhance its logistical support for ground forces through civilian mobilization. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Degrade Ukrainian Winter Resilience & Overwhelm Air Defenses: RF intends to continue systematic mass strikes against Ukrainian DIB, energy, industrial, and logistical infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's ability to sustain operations through winter and to saturate/overwhelm UAF air defenses. This includes persistent ballistic missile and drone pressure, targeting residential areas to induce fear and erode morale. RF will also employ FAB guided aerial bombs against UAF rear areas. RF intends to prevent UAF from acquiring long-range strike capabilities, as evidenced by Zakharova's statements on Danish rocket fuel production. RF intends to demonstrate the capability and willingness to attack Ukrainian nuclear facilities (e.g., Smolensk NPP, even if ancillary facilities) as a means of psychological pressure and potential escalation. RF intends to frame UAF deep strikes against sensitive Russian targets like nuclear power plants as "nuclear terrorism" for propaganda. Росатом's statement implies RF intent to downplay damage to sensitive targets like nuclear power plants. RF will continue to generate narratives about the risk of nuclear accidents at Ukrainian facilities (e.g., Kharkiv "Neutron Source") to sow fear and pressure UAF. Zelenskiy's statement about Putin's goal of occupying all Ukraine and the war machine only stopping when it runs out of fuel accurately reflects RF's broader strategic intention. RF will continue UAV operations targeting Kyiv Oblast, including Vyshhorod district. NEW: RF will continue to attempt to degrade UAF air capabilities through air-to-air engagements or air defense systems, and will publicize any confirmed UAF air losses for IO purposes, as seen with the Su-27 wreckage (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: MoD Russia's video of drone deployment and subsequent report of overwhelming an enemy hexacopter's control channels indicates RF's intent to maintain ISR dominance and counter UAF air assets, particularly in key regions like Dnepropetrovsk. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Undermine Western Support and Ukrainian Morale: RF will continue aggressive information operations to discredit UAF, sow distrust, amplify internal challenges, and exploit any perceived cracks in Western unity (e.g., Trump's comments on Poland, US internal events). This includes leveraging diplomatic incidents and internal US political events, as well as blaming UAF for civilian casualties in border regions (Bryansk, Belgorod) and promoting narratives of UAF military misconduct (e.g., TCC priest incident, SBU priest arrest, Myrotvorets listing of children/Kurtukova, Kuzminov's mother, father of murdered Ukrainian, blaming UAF for disrupting diplomacy, discrediting Patriot aid, Polish drone incident staging claims, derogatory posts about Western leaders, Danish rocket fuel production, Solovyev assassination plot, "Zelenskyy killing for Western money," Orban's criticism of von der Leyen, Zakharova's "bloody monster" Kyiv, UAF commander from Mariupol brigade) to control the narrative and demonize Ukrainian authorities. RF will also use internal security operations (e.g., FSB Klimovsk, Solovyev assassination plot, Tyurin corruption case) for propaganda and promote internal electoral processes (naming polling stations after war participants). RF will continue to leverage international events (e.g., Brazil, Trump's potential Uzbekistan visit) and blame UAF for disrupting diplomacy (Russia-US summit). RF will also actively work to discredit Western military aid (e.g., Danish rocket fuel production, "inoperable Patriot" claims) and counter Ukrainian IO efforts, including claims of "fake" videos. RF will continue to use external political statements (Philippot, Orban) to support its IO and attempt to undermine Western unity. RF will continue to use religious themes to boost military morale. RF will leverage the "pause" in negotiations by blaming European and Ukrainian leaders. RF will intensify propaganda efforts against Ukrainian officials' alleged hypocrisy (e.g., children abroad vs. calls for duty). RF will systematically frame UAF actions as "terrorist war" against Russian civilians. RF will leverage diplomatic actions (Germany summoning ambassador) to reinforce its IO narratives. RF IO will exploit US domestic news (Charlie Kirk murder suspect apprehension, identification of suspect Tyler Robinson) to further its narratives. RF IO will use internal political discussions (United Russia candidates) for narrative control. RF IO will use mobilization narratives (ban on leaving country) to control internal population. RF IO will target dissenting voices (Dmitry Bykov). RF will continue to use economic reporting (e.g., housing construction) and financial policy (citizen fund blocking) for domestic IO to project stability and reassurance. RF will also use consumer-focused promotions (Alfa-Bank cashback for train tickets) for normalcy IO. RF IO will continue to leverage Hungarian PM Orban's solidarity with Poland, despite previous efforts to portray disunity, to reinforce narratives of a unified Eastern European stance against RF aggression, or potentially to highlight a perceived shift by Hungary if their stance differs from the EU mainstream. AV БогомаZ's civilian development projects will be used in local IO to project normalcy and development. Kotsnews's "artilleryman's amulet" will be used to reinforce troop morale. RF IO will adapt educational narratives to incorporate AI considerations. RF IO will attempt to manage and exploit reports of internal socio-economic problems in occupied territories (e.g., Donetsk water crisis) to control narratives. RF IO will adjust narratives on military cooperation with NATO to downplay direct NATO involvement in Ukraine. RF IO will use lighthearted (Zelenskyy/Kellogg's) and negative (Makeyevka house unsafe) narratives to shape perceptions. RF milbloggers like Alex Parker Returns continue to adapt derogatory and inflammatory IO against Ukrainian and Western leadership (Zelenskyy, Kellogg). RF IO will continue to use detailed (even if sensationalized) information about US domestic incidents (Charlie Kirk assassination) to further its anti-Western narratives and demonize alleged "extremist" elements. RF IO will leverage Polish FM Sikorski's statement about maintaining diplomatic ties with Russia to sow confusion and potentially undermine the perception of NATO unity against Russia. NEW: RF will actively counter Polish diplomatic framing that Putin intends to continue the war, as well as the narrative that Russia is fighting NATO through Ukraine, likely through denial of direct aggression and re-emphasis on UAF provocations (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: RF will continue to use MoD reports to control the narrative of the overall conflict, highlighting perceived successes and downplaying setbacks (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: RF will continue to leverage international political events (Israel/UN GA) to portray a chaotic global order, reinforcing its own position and deflecting attention from Ukraine (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: Colonelcassad's message about Telegram bot failures and "bot counter-offensives" indicates RF's intent to manage internal information flow and combat perceived information attacks (Confidence: MEDIUM). NEW: TASS shares a photo message of Pavel Durov's statement identifying Charlie Kirk's death as an "assault on free speech," reinforcing RF's strategy of leveraging US domestic events for anti-Western IO. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad amplifies Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski's statement that NATO is not fighting Russia, but Russia is fighting NATO through Ukraine, providing a critical Western framing that RF IO will attempt to counter. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares a video celebrating Sergey Parchevsky, a boxing trainer and DPR People's Council deputy, focusing on his commitment to sports and community in Donbas amidst conflict, a form of internal morale-boosting propaganda. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "Janus Putkonen" (Finnish milblogger) shares multiple videos (memes) from Poland satirizing the "Russian drone attack," as well as a video of a downed commercial drone with "Терроризировать" (Terrorize) written on it. This indicates RF-aligned milbloggers are actively using humor and documented incidents to shape narratives around drone attacks and Ukrainian actions. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Polish FM Sikorski acknowledged some drones violating Polish airspace came from Ukraine, not solely Belarus. This is a significant development that RF IO will immediately leverage to shift blame for airspace violations and undermine the narrative of exclusive Russian aggression. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "Игорь Артамонов" shares video depicting civilian development projects, including school construction and kindergarten renovation. This represents local RF IO to project normalcy and development, particularly in regions that may have proximity to the conflict or receive support from the government. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "Басурин о главном" shares video of a Russian Ministry of Defense meeting discussing economical management principles and digitalization, featuring Shoigu and Belousov. This is a domestic IO effort to project efficiency and modernization within the RF military. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "РБК-Україна" reports a NATO general states "Operation Eastern Guardian" does not include integration with Ukrainian air defense, which RF IO could leverage to highlight perceived limitations of NATO support for Ukraine. (Confidence: HIGH)

• RF IO Vulnerability: (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The confirmed death of a civilian in Belgorod from a malfunctioning RF Pantsir air defense missile booster (ASTRA, Sever.Realii) creates a significant IO vulnerability for RF, contradicting its narrative of UAF sole responsibility for civilian casualties and potentially eroding public trust in its air defense systems. This will be an immediate target for UAF counter-IO.

• RF Internal IO Challenges: (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad's message about Telegram bot failures and a "bot counter-offensive" suggests internal challenges in maintaining RF's information dominance and controlling online narratives.

• Courses of Action (COA):

  • MLCOA 1 (Ground Offensive Reinforcement & Consolidation - Pokrovsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Lyman, Sumy, Konstantinovka, Dobropillya, Novopavlovsk, Siverske): RF will intensify ground offensives on the Pokrovsk axis, attempting to clear UAF from urban areas of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and consolidate gains towards Myrnograd. Simultaneously, RF will commit significant forces to consolidate and expand the new salient in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye, Novomykolaivka area), aiming to complete the encirclement of Velykomykhailivka, and continue advances towards Novoivanivka. RF will exploit the claimed control of Kolodyazi and Kirovsk and continue advances on the Krasny Liman direction, with a focus on Predtechino and Pleshcheyevka to enable further advance on Konstantinovka. RF's 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment and other units will initiate or intensify offensive operations on the Sumy front (Yunakovka area) to draw UAF reserves, supported by army aviation, including "Anvar" special forces-led attacks. High-tempo probing attacks will continue on the Kupyansk and South Donetsk axes to fix UAF reserves and prevent redeployments. RF will continue employing snipers for counter-UAV operations and utilize fiber-optic FPV drones for precision strikes against UAF logistics. RF will integrate newly delivered and modernized armored vehicles into these ground operations and continue offensive operations in the Novopavlovsk direction. RF will also use FAB guided aerial bombs on UAF rear positions (Druzhkivka). RF FPV drone units (e.g., "Sparta" battalion) will continue to target UAF UAV control points and communications. RF ground units will continue combat training, including with AGS-17 Plamya. RF will continue active drone support for ground advances. RF will increasingly use FPV "Zhduny" drones for ambushes. The confirmed start of "West-2025" exercises will likely coincide with or support some level of offensive or deterrent activity, possibly involving multi-branch deployments. RF will also continue cross-border interdiction operations, particularly on the Bryansk-Chernihiv direction. RF will deploy and integrate new robotic ground vehicles ('Kurier', 'Fagot') to enhance offensive and area denial capabilities, especially on key axes like Siversk. RF will continue to utilize its 90th Tank Division in assault operations, likely focusing on breakthrough or exploitation objectives. RF will continue to conduct localized strikes against UAF temporary deployment points and automotive equipment in Sumy Oblast. RF will adaptively use captured UAF hexacopters for its own reconnaissance or strike missions. RF will conduct FPV drone operations in central Kramatorsk, aiming to disrupt UAF logistics, C2, or create psychological impact. RF will continue to use formations like the 78th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Sever-Akhmat" for sustained artillery support and combat operations. RF will conduct FPV drone reconnaissance and targeting operations in the Iziumskyi district of Kharkiv Oblast. RF will continue destructive urban warfare operations on axes like Vovchansk, as evidenced by aerial footage. NEW: RF will continue to focus ground combat operations on the eastern front, as indicated by the "Рыбарь" map, reinforcing gains and advancing where possible (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: RF will sustain ground pressure on the Konstantinovka direction, utilizing airborne troops for assault or holding actions (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: RF will maintain continuous aerial reconnaissance over combat zones, using drones to monitor enemy movements and identify targets, as evidenced by "Воин DV" video. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: RF will continue drone surveillance and targeting operations, including at night using thermal imaging, to support ground forces and interdict enemy movements, as indicated by "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" video. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: RF marine special forces will continue to conduct FPV drone-assisted coastal defense operations in Crimea, specifically targeting USVs and other threats at night, as seen in "Два майора" video. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: RF will continue to rely on volunteer efforts and modifications of civilian vehicles (e.g., Lada Niva) to enhance tactical mobility and logistical support for its forces. (Confidence: HIGH) (Confidence: HIGH)
  • MLCOA 2 (Sustained Air/Missile Campaign Targeting Critical Infrastructure & Probing Homeland Defense): RF will conduct multiple waves of UAV strikes (30-60 drones per wave) and widespread guided aerial bomb (KAB) attacks, prioritizing Ukrainian energy, industrial, and logistical infrastructure, with continued ballistic missile threats from the north and Kursk Oblast, including against residential areas (e.g., Sumy Oblast, Zaporizhzhia, Leningrad Oblast, Druzhkivka, Synelnykove district). RF will aim to inflict maximum damage and civilian casualties in an attempt to erode morale. RF will also continue to conduct UAV incursions into Russian territory, likely for reconnaissance and to test UAF deep strike capabilities, while showcasing its enhanced air defense responses (e.g., claiming 221 UAVs downed) and amplifying claims of civilian casualties (e.g., Belgorod, Bryansk) but will attempt to redirect blame for collateral damage from its own systems (Belgorod Pantsir incident). RF will prioritize strikes on UAF UAV C2 and communications (Starlink) and artillery ammunition storage. RF will continue to test new drone systems, including those designed to evade EW. RF will also target UAF long-range missile production capabilities, as evidenced by Zakharova's statements. RF will likely continue to conduct limited drone attacks on sensitive targets within Russia (e.g., Smolensk NPP ancillary facilities) to demonstrate UAF capabilities to its domestic audience and to justify its own actions, while maintaining claims of no significant damage. RF will frame UAF deep strikes against sensitive Russian targets like nuclear power plants as "nuclear terrorism" for propaganda. RF will likely continue to downplay damage to sensitive targets like the Smolensk NPP via official channels like Росатом. RF will also continue to spread narratives about the risk of nuclear accidents at Ukrainian facilities due to RF strikes. RF will continue UAV operations targeting Kyiv Oblast, including Vyshhorod district. NEW: RF will continue to attempt to degrade UAF air capabilities through air-to-air engagements or air defense systems, and will publicize any confirmed UAF air losses for IO purposes, as seen with the Su-27 wreckage (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: RF will continue to deploy and operate multi-rotor drones for reconnaissance and surveillance, as seen in MoD Russia's video (16:37:50). (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: RF will continue to conduct counter-UAV operations, including electronic warfare to overwhelm enemy drone control channels, specifically targeting heavy hexacopters, as reported by MoD Russia (16:37:49). (Confidence: HIGH) (Confidence: HIGH)
  • MLCOA 3 (Escalated Hybrid Operations and Information Warfare with Border Provocations): RF will continue to probe NATO airspace with smaller, coordinated groups of UAVs to test response thresholds and identify vulnerabilities. This will be accompanied by an an aggressive, multi-layered information campaign to deny responsibility for incursions (e.g., Poland drone damage pre-existing, Smolensk no damage), blame Ukraine (especially for civilian casualties in border regions like Bryansk, Belgorod, Kharkiv civilian vehicle), mock NATO's response, and amplify perceived disunity within the alliance (e.g., Trump's comments on Poland). RF will leverage the "West-2025" exercises for a show of force and internal propaganda, potentially staging border provocations involving Belarusian forces to maintain pressure on Poland and Lithuania, and projecting naval power in the Baltic/Barents Seas via Northern Fleet deployments (including Arctic Ocean) and in the Pacific via Pacific Fleet exercises. RF will also proactively frame battlefield developments (e.g., "looting" in Krasny Liman, "liberation" of Novopetrovskoye) and employ highly inflammatory narratives (e.g., TCC priest incident, SBU priest arrest, Myrotvorets listing of children/Kurtukova, Kuzminov's mother, father of murdered Ukrainian, blaming UAF for disrupting diplomacy, discrediting Patriot aid, Polish drone incident staging claims, derogatory posts about Western leaders, Danish rocket fuel production, Solovyev assassination plot, "Zelenskyy killing for Western money," Orban's criticism of von der Leyen, Zakharova's "bloody monster" Kyiv, UAF commander from Mariupol brigade) to control the narrative and demonize Ukrainian authorities. RF will also use internal security operations (e.g., FSB Klimovsk, Solovyev assassination plot, Tyurin corruption case) for propaganda and promote internal electoral processes (naming polling stations after war participants). RF will continue to leverage international events (e.g., Brazil, Trump's potential Uzbekistan visit) and blame UAF for disrupting diplomacy (Russia-US summit). RF will also actively work to discredit Western military aid (e.g., Danish rocket fuel production, "inoperable Patriot" claims) and counter Ukrainian IO efforts, including claims of "fake" videos. RF will continue to use external political statements (Philippot, Orban) to support its IO and attempt to undermine Western unity. RF will continue to use religious themes to boost military morale. RF will leverage the "pause" in negotiations by blaming European and Ukrainian leaders. RF will intensify propaganda efforts against Ukrainian officials' alleged hypocrisy (e.g., children abroad vs. calls for duty). RF will systematically frame UAF actions as "terrorist war" against Russian civilians. RF will leverage diplomatic actions (Germany summoning ambassador) to reinforce its IO narratives. RF IO will exploit US domestic news (Charlie Kirk murder suspect apprehension, identification of suspect Tyler Robinson) to further its narratives. RF IO will use internal political discussions (United Russia candidates) for narrative control. RF IO will use mobilization narratives (ban on leaving country) to control internal population. RF IO will target dissenting voices (Dmitry Bykov). RF will continue to use economic reporting (e.g., housing construction) and financial policy (citizen fund blocking) for domestic IO to project stability and reassurance. RF will also use consumer-focused promotions (Alfa-Bank cashback for train tickets) for normalcy IO. RF IO will continue to leverage Hungarian PM Orban's solidarity with Poland, despite previous efforts to portray disunity, to reinforce narratives of a unified Eastern European stance against RF aggression, or potentially to highlight a perceived shift by Hungary if their stance differs from the EU mainstream. AV БогомаZ's civilian development projects will be used in local IO to project normalcy and development. Kotsnews's "artilleryman's amulet" will be used to reinforce troop morale. RF IO will adapt educational narratives to incorporate AI considerations. RF IO will attempt to manage and exploit reports of internal socio-economic problems in occupied territories (e.g., Donetsk water crisis) to control narratives. RF IO will adjust narratives on military cooperation with NATO to downplay direct NATO involvement in Ukraine. RF IO will use lighthearted (Zelenskyy/Kellogg's) and negative (Makeyevka house unsafe) narratives to shape perceptions. RF milbloggers like Alex Parker Returns continue to adapt derogatory and inflammatory IO against Ukrainian and Western leadership (Zelenskyy, Kellogg). RF IO will continue to use detailed (even if sensationalized) information about US domestic incidents (Charlie Kirk assassination) to further its anti-Western narratives and demonize alleged "extremist" elements. RF IO will leverage Polish FM Sikorski's statement about maintaining diplomatic ties with Russia to sow confusion and potentially undermine the perception of NATO unity against Russia. NEW: RF will actively counter Polish diplomatic framing that Putin intends to continue the war, as well as the narrative that Russia is fighting NATO through Ukraine, likely through denial of direct aggression and re-emphasis on UAF provocations (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: RF will continue to use MoD reports to control the narrative of the overall conflict, highlighting perceived successes and downplaying setbacks (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: RF will continue to leverage international political events (Israel/UN GA) to portray a chaotic global order, reinforcing its own position and deflecting attention from Ukraine (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: Colonelcassad's message about Telegram bot failures and "bot counter-offensives" indicates RF's intent to manage internal information flow and combat perceived information attacks (Confidence: MEDIUM). NEW: TASS shares a photo message of Pavel Durov's statement identifying Charlie Kirk's death as an "assault on free speech," reinforcing RF's strategy of leveraging US domestic events for anti-Western IO. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad amplifies Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski's statement that NATO is not fighting Russia, but Russia is fighting NATO through Ukraine, providing a critical Western framing that RF IO will attempt to counter. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares a video celebrating Sergey Parchevsky, a boxing trainer and DPR People's Council deputy, focusing on his commitment to sports and community in Donbas amidst conflict, a form of internal morale-boosting propaganda. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "Janus Putkonen" (Finnish milblogger) shares multiple videos (memes) from Poland satirizing the "Russian drone attack," as well as a video of a downed commercial drone with "Терроризировать" (Terrorize) written on it. This indicates RF-aligned milbloggers are actively using humor and documented incidents to shape narratives around drone attacks and Ukrainian actions. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Polish FM Sikorski acknowledged some drones violating Polish airspace came from Ukraine, not solely Belarus. This is a significant development that RF IO will immediately leverage to shift blame for airspace violations and undermine the narrative of exclusive Russian aggression. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "Игорь Артамонов" shares video depicting civilian development projects, including school construction and kindergarten renovation. This represents local RF IO to project normalcy and development, particularly in regions that may have proximity to the conflict or receive support from the government. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "Басурин о главном" shares video of a Russian Ministry of Defense meeting discussing economical management principles and digitalization, featuring Shoigu and Belousov. This is a domestic IO effort to project efficiency and modernization within the RF military. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "РБК-Україна" reports a NATO general states "Operation Eastern Guardian" does not include integration with Ukrainian air defense, which RF IO could leverage to highlight perceived limitations of NATO support for Ukraine. (Confidence: HIGH) (Confidence: HIGH)

5.2. Most dangerous enemy courses of action (MDCOA)

• MDCOA 1 (Breakthrough to Strategic Depth & Encirclement Operations): RF conducts a rapid, multi-echelon breakthrough on the Lyman or Dnipropetrovsk axis, exploiting existing gains at Kolodyazi, Kirovsk, Novopetrovskoye, and Novomykolaivka. This would involve rapid deployment of reserves, including possibly newly formed armored units and UGVs, to achieve strategic depth, potentially encircling a large UAF grouping in Velykomykhailivka or the Konstantinovka/Kramatorsk agglomeration. This offensive would be supported by an overwhelming volume of precision-guided munitions and KABs, aimed at disrupting UAF C2 and logistical nodes in the operational rear. A simultaneous, sustained offensive push on the Sumy front could draw UAF reserves away from critical areas, enabling the main effort to achieve decisive operational effects. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
• MDCOA 2 (Massive Combined Arms Deep Strike Campaign Targeting Kyiv and DIB): RF launches an unprecedented, synchronized, multi-platform air and missile strike (100+ UAVs, multiple ballistic and cruise missiles) against Kyiv and other major urban centers, as well as critical DIB, energy, and government C2 facilities across Ukraine. This strike would aim to overwhelm UAF air defenses, inflict maximum civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, and generate mass panic. The campaign could specifically target areas around the "Neutron Source" facility in Kharkiv or other sensitive civilian targets, amplified by "nuclear terrorism" narratives, to create fear and potentially force a UAF capitulation or international intervention on RF terms. The inclusion of new EW-evading drones could increase the effectiveness of such an attack. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
• MDCOA 3 (Direct Hybrid Attack on NATO Member State with Force Mobilization): RF stages a significant hybrid operation against a NATO member state (e.g., Poland, Lithuania) under the guise of "West-2025" exercises. This could involve a deliberate, large-scale (multiple waves of 50-100+ UAVs) airspace violation aimed at causing mass casualties or significant damage, or even a limited ground incursion/sabotage operation by disguised Spetsnaz units. This would be coupled with a rapid mobilization of Belarusian forces on the border and aggressive information operations to justify the attack and sow panic within NATO, attempting to trigger a disunified or delayed Article 5 response. The goal would be to demonstrate NATO's vulnerability and willingness to escalate beyond Ukraine. (Confidence: LOW)

5.3. Timeline estimates and decision points

• Next 24-48 Hours (Critical): RF will likely attempt to consolidate and expand its gains on the Lyman and Dnipropetrovsk axes, focusing on securing Kolodyazi, Kirovsk, Novopetrovskoye, and Novomykolaivka, and increasing pressure on Velykomykhailivka and Konstantinovka. UAF will need to immediately respond to stabilize these fronts. Expect continued high-volume drone and KAB attacks across Ukraine, especially on frontline areas and logistics, and persistent RF IO efforts to exploit alleged UAF "nuclear terrorism" and amplify battlefield gains. The deployment of RF UGVs on these axes should be anticipated and countered.
  • Decision Point: If RF is able to quickly consolidate its Lyman and Dnipropetrovsk gains and bring up significant reserves, UAF command will face a decision on whether to commit strategic reserves to counter-attack or to establish new defensive lines to prevent deeper penetration.
• Next 72 Hours (High Impact): If initial RF breakthroughs are successful, RF will attempt to exploit them to achieve greater operational depth, potentially threatening major urban centers like Krasny Liman or Kramatorsk on the Lyman axis, or deeper into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This could trigger more intense and sustained ground engagements and an increase in UAF attrition rates.
  • Decision Point: Should RF achieve significant additional territorial gains, UAF leadership will need to decide on potential tactical withdrawals from less defensible positions to consolidate forces and prevent encirclement, or commit critical resources to holding current lines at all costs.
• Next 1-2 Weeks (Strategic Implications): The outcome of current and near-term RF offensives will determine the winter campaign's trajectory. If RF can secure significant territorial gains on multiple axes and degrade UAF's ability to resist, it will likely initiate new massed strikes on critical infrastructure to maximize pressure ahead of winter. Ongoing international diplomatic efforts (e.g., 19th EU sanctions package, discussions on long-range weapons for Ukraine) will also be critical during this period.
  • Decision Point: Based on the effectiveness of UAF defenses and the level of international support, UAF will need to decide on long-term defensive strategies, potential limited counter-offensives, or prioritizing specific sectors for reinforcement, particularly concerning air defense assets.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian force posture and readiness (Confidence: HIGH)

UAF maintains a resilient defensive posture, successfully repelling 130 RF attacks across all major axes in the last 24 hours. UAF drone operators are demonstrating tactical effectiveness against RF personnel, vehicles, and logistics, with verified success in targeting RF ground forces (e.g., BMD-3) and infrastructure (e.g., bridge destruction). Ukrainian air defenses achieved a 94% interception rate (62 of 66 UAVs) against a significant RF air attack in the previous wave, and shot down/suppressed 33 of 40 UAVs in the latest wave, demonstrating continued effectiveness. UAF continues to demonstrate asymmetric warfare capabilities through resistance movements like "ATESH" and successful deep strikes on RF territory and naval assets (e.g., Project MPSV07 vessel, Smolensk oil depot, Luhansk ammunition depot, Primorsk port vessel and pumping station, Transneft oil pumping station in Vladimir Oblast). UAF is actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to enhance international cooperation and air defense capabilities, including sharing expertise on countering Shaheds and training Polish military personnel on drone interception. UAF is committed to internal transparency and anti-corruption efforts (e.g., Poltava prison torture trial, detention of woman selling humanitarian aid cars, ex-commander corruption investigation, Ukrainian MP fraud investigation). Morale is bolstered by public solidarity, recognition of valor (e.g., "Man in the Military" award, the DSHV celebration of a soldier who "burned 16 tanks"), and official support for POW families. Rheinmetall's planned shell production in Ukraine significantly enhances long-term readiness. High-level US, Danish, Finnish, Estonian, British (Foreign Minister), and Polish (Foreign Minister) diplomatic engagement confirms strong international support. The arrival of British Prince Harry further raises international awareness and support. UAF is also focused on protecting civilian life through initiatives like underground schools in Vilnyansk. UAF General Staff reports 890 RF combat losses over the last 24 hours. UAF is preparing for continued intense defensive operations on multiple fronts, as evidenced by the delivery of logistical vehicles to the Zaporizhzhia front. The graphic video of a UAF soldier receiving field medical aid highlights the resilience of UAF personnel and the importance of combat medicine. UAF 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" demonstrates proactive development and deployment of advanced UAVs, signaling enhanced tactical capabilities. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" (UAF milblogger) claims Ukrainian Defense Forces (СОУ) have "cleared and liberated" the villages of Shakhove and Volodymyrivka on the Dobropillya direction, demonstrating local offensive success. The "Rubizh" brigade's fundraising indicates active recovery efforts and sustained combat operations despite potential equipment losses. The successful SBU detention of a UOC-MP priest for alleged strike adjustment indicates effective UAF counter-intelligence and security readiness. The opening of a new European gauge rail line from Uzhhorod to Budapest/Vienna improves Ukraine's westward transportation and logistical connectivity, enhancing long-term readiness. UAF Air Force reports continued reconnaissance UAV activity by RF in northern Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, indicating UAF maintains vigilance and intelligence gathering capability in these areas. "Оперативний ЗСУ" highlights Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski's strong stance against RF drone incursions into Poland, showcasing strong diplomatic readiness and alignment with NATO allies. The high-profile visit of Prince Harry further boosts UAF's international standing and public morale. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims UAF has moved military aircraft to airfields in Poland and Romania, which, if true, indicates a strategic decision to preserve air assets and maintain combat readiness through dispersal, potentially enhancing long-term readiness and survivability. Germany's call for long-range weapons for strikes on Russia indicates continued efforts to enhance UAF offensive capabilities. Liveuamap Source reports on UAF repelling numerous attacks across multiple axes, confirming continued UAF defensive effectiveness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports successful raid actions by "Morok" assault battalion, 225th Separate Assault Regiment, with drone support, highlighting UAF small unit tactical effectiveness and readiness. STERNENKO reports +280 FPV drones purchased in the last day through public donations, demonstrating strong public support for UAF drone procurement. RBC-Україна supports fundraising for vehicles for the 153rd Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBR), indicating ongoing UAF logistical needs and public support. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares images and videos of a UAF vehicle ("Techik") undergoing repair, indicating maintenance and sustainment efforts, crucial for readiness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the 141st Mechanized Brigade has received Croatian M-84 tanks, indicating continued Western military aid and UAF modernization. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports an ex-commander of a military unit in Lviv Oblast is suspected of million-dollar damages during the purchase of army beds, highlighting UAF internal anti-corruption efforts. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a thermal drone video depicting a Russian soldier attempting to hide from a UAF drone operator (79th Airmobile Brigade), showcasing successful UAF drone hunter-killer operations. Zelenskiy / Official and Oleh Syniehubov, Governor of Kharkiv ODA, share photos celebrating Electronic Warfare (EW) personnel, showing soldiers with EW equipment, highlighting the importance of this capability for UAF. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UAF General Staff) announces a new training course "SEDO: digital document management in the army" for Army+ app users, indicating modernization of administrative procedures. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of Ukrainian snipers eliminating six Russian assault troops on the Toretsk front, Donetsk Oblast. "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares photos regarding the National Police liquidating a scheme for profiting from humanitarian vehicles for UAF in Kyiv, indicating ongoing efforts to combat corruption affecting military aid. "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" confirms a working trip to the Pokrovsk and Dobropillya directions, indicating high-level attention to these critical sectors. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration shares a video about a relocated art school operating in a bomb shelter in Zaporizhzhia, highlighting civilian resilience and educational continuity amidst the conflict. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Staff for POWs) emphasizes support for families of missing persons and those captured, and requests public support to disseminate important messages, indicating continued efforts to address the human impact of the conflict on military families. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF milblogger) video of SSO snipers engaging in close-quarters combat during an assault on enemy trench positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction by SSO snipers, involving grenades and small arms fire in close-quarters combat, highlighting active UAF ground engagements. Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF milblogger) shares video indicating RF is increasingly using FPV "Zhduny" (waiting/ambush drones) in combat, with the video showing a Ukrainian soldier engaging a stationary target. STERNENKO (UAF milblogger) reports on the continued success of the "SKY RUSORIZ" project in downing enemy UAVs, demonstrating persistent UAF counter-UAV capabilities and public support for this effort. "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" shares photo messages celebrating EW personnel on their professional day, highlighting their crucial role. "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" shares photo messages about opening a memorial plaque for fallen defender Oleksandr Dokukin, indicating UAF efforts to honor military personnel. Офіс Генерального прокурора shares a photo message about a "scheme of fictitious employment in 'fake' educational institutions to evade mobilization," indicating UAF efforts to combat draft evasion. Оперативний ЗСУ amplifies Head of Bundestag Defense Committee Thomas Röwekamp stating Russian drones threatening NATO territory should be shot down over Ukraine, indicating a clear allied position. RBC-Україна reports that Ukrainian specialists will train Poles to shoot down drones, but not in Ukraine, indicating continued cooperation on air defense. The Coordination Staff for POWs is holding a meeting with families of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade (UAF) fighters, demonstrating UAF commitment to POW support. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of Ukrainian soldiers from the '3rd Army Corps' operating in a rural environment, including interaction with captured individuals, indicating active offensive/clearing operations. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА share video of a meeting with Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, discussing further support, defense aid, joint weapons production, and EU membership, highlighting continued UAF diplomatic efforts. STERNENKO shares video of the UAF BAS Fenix unit working daily on Russian logistics in Donetsk Oblast, showcasing UAF operational effectiveness against RF supply lines. РБК-Україна reports the State Bureau of Investigation (DBR) has completed its investigation into Ukrainian MP Yevhen Shevchenko for treason and fraud, demonstrating continued UAF anti-corruption efforts. Олександр Вілкул shares multiple photo messages with the caption "ЖИТТЯ ТРИВАЄ!" (Life Continues!), depicting civilian events with traditional Ukrainian attire, a UAF IO effort to boost morale and project normalcy amidst the conflict. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational information as of 16:00, 12.09.2025, maintaining transparency and regular updates on battlefield status. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА share a video of President Zelenskyy meeting with Polish Vice Prime Minister – Minister of Foreign Affairs Radosław Sikorski, discussing the drone attack on Poland, and expressing readiness to share experience, assist with training Polish military, and build a joint defense system. Zelenskyy expresses gratitude for Polish support and emphasizes close neighbor relations. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the "Shkval" battalion of the "Skelya" regiment conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine launched an integration program for 375 million Euros, supported by Denmark, focusing on resilience, energy security, and green energy transition, indicating a strong international commitment to Ukraine's long-term stability and defense. РБК-Україна reports that a delegation of Polish military personnel will arrive in Ukraine next week to work with Ukrainian forces on counter-drone issues, confirming strengthening military cooperation and knowledge transfer. РБК-Україна reports Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha named expectations for the 19th package of European sanctions against Russia, focusing on financial infrastructure and oil exports, highlighting continued diplomatic readiness to impose economic pressure. Zelenskiy / Official and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, share a video of President Zelenskyy stating "Putin's goal is the occupation of all Ukraine... Russia's war machine will only stop when it runs out of fuel," demonstrating UAF leadership's clear understanding of the enemy's intent and commitment to resistance. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy jokingly compared Kellogg's to air defense, offering citizenship to the company, indicating a proactive and creative approach to seeking international support and investment. Zelenskiy / Official shares a video of a meeting with British Foreign Minister Yvette Cooper, thanking her for her first visit being to Ukraine, indicating continued high-level diplomatic support. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy states giving land to Putin is not a solution, but a pause, demonstrating clear UAF resolve and refusal of territorial concessions. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Zelenskyy states that 1600 interceptor drones (or at least 500 with other weapons) are needed to destroy 800 Shahed UAVs, clearly indicating UAF's urgent air defense needs. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration shares a video depicting an outdoor youth event with Ukrainian flags and a focus on resilience and future prospects. This highlights UAF efforts to foster morale, national identity, and future development despite the conflict. UAF is managing the "Резерв+" app limitation transparently. NEW: "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares a video depicting a UAF MiG-29 conducting an aerial attack, claiming it targeted an "invaders' battalion headquarters" in Zaporizhzhia, showcasing UAF's offensive air capabilities (Confidence: MEDIUM). NEW: "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" reports a weekly summary of activities in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, detailing 3300+ enemy attacks, 5 deaths, 23 injuries, delivery of 25 vehicles and hundreds of drones to defense forces (37M UAH), a visit by PM Svyrydenko, inspection of resilient infrastructure (11th underground education space), and delivery of new communal equipment to 10 hromadas, indicating robust civil-military resilience and international support (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: РБК-Україна reports Foreign Minister Sybiha announced exhumations of Ukrainian victims of the Volyn tragedy in Poland, indicating ongoing efforts to address sensitive historical issues with key allies (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: "STERNENKO" shares drone footage indicating successful strikes by the 100th Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBr) against an RF tank, armored fighting vehicle (BBBM), and personnel. (Confidence: HIGH)

3.2. Recent tactical successes or setbacks (Confidence: HIGH)

• Successes:
  • High interception rate (94% previously, 33 of 40 in the latest wave, 5 more reported by STERNENKO) against RF UAV attack.
  • Successful repulsion of 130 RF attacks across multiple axes.
  • Effective drone operations by UAF units against RF personnel and equipment, particularly significant with 890 RF personnel eliminated in 24 hours. UAF sniper team eliminated six RF RF assault troops on the Toretsk front. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows destruction of RF military vehicles during combat operations, which could be attributed to UAF actions. SSO snipers engaging in close-quarters combat on Zaporizhzhia direction (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) demonstrates ground tactical success. STERNENKO reporting 5 more enemy UAVs shot down indicates continued counter-UAV success. STERNENKO also reports the 1st Separate Territorial Defense Brigade "Black Swarm" used fiber-optic drones to destroy a truck hidden in a large hangar and a cannon in Bryansk Oblast, indicating a successful deep strike and counter-logistics operation. NEW: "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares video showing a UAF MiG-29 conducting an aerial attack, described as "master class on dismantling the invaders' battalion headquarters" in Zaporizhzhia, indicating successful offensive air operations (Confidence: MEDIUM). NEW: "STERNENKO" shares drone footage indicating successful strikes by the 100th Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBr) against an RF tank, armored fighting vehicle (BBBM), and personnel. This represents a significant tactical success in degrading RF combat power. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Successful HUR strike on an RF Black Sea Fleet Project MPSV07 vessel, disabling a key support asset.
  • Successful destruction of a bridge near Nova Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, disrupting RF logistics.
  • Successful deep strikes into RF territory: explosions and fires at an oil depot in Smolensk Oblast and Primorsk port/pumping station in Leningrad Oblast; Luhansk ammunition depot; and numerous UAV incursions in Leningrad Oblast, Rostov Oblast, and Moscow region. Verified UAF videos from "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" confirming fires and explosions in Smolensk and Leningrad Oblasts, including a LUKOIL facility. Alleged UAV strike on Transneft oil pumping station "Vtorovo" in Vladimir Oblast, if verified, represents a significant success, expanding UAF deep strike range and target type. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares multiple videos depicting night-time explosions and missile trails, reinforcing UAF deep strike claims. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports an "explosive morning" in Leningrad Oblast, with videos, further reinforcing successful UAF deep strike claims. "Alex Parker Returns" shares video further supporting the Vladimir Oblast deep strike claim. RBC-Ukraine reports SBU drones hit Primorsk port, suspending oil shipments, indicating successful UAF deep strike and significant impact. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a direct hit on an RF location in occupied Kadiivka (Stakhanov), causing fire/explosions, demonstrating successful deep strike capability within occupied territories. ASTRA, citing SBU sources, confirms strike on Primorsk oil port. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno's analysis provides specific BDA for the Transneft strike, increasing confidence in its success. ASTRA reports that two berths and an oil tanker were damaged in the Primorsk oil loading port after a UAV attack, providing additional BDA for the UAF deep strike. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares new satellite imagery confirming damage to at least two tanks at Transneft's Vtorovo oil pumping station in Vladimir Oblast, further reinforcing the success of this deep strike.
  • US Congress approved $400 million in military aid, and Sweden committed $836M (20th package) and $4.276B annually for 2026-2027. British Foreign Minister in Kyiv announces $190 million winter aid package. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports Great Britain and Japan have introduced new sanctions against Russia, and the EU will present new sanctions on September 15, confirming continued international economic and diplomatic pressure. Germany calls on partners to supply long-range weapons for strikes on Russia. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports US will pressure G7 to impose tariffs on Indian and Chinese purchases of Russian oil, indicating potential future economic pressure on RF. RBC-Ukraine reports EU countries have extended sanctions and are preparing a 19th package. TASS reports the EU Commission will announce a 19th package of sanctions against RF on September 17. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА express gratitude for new UK sanctions, highlighting continued international support. RBC-Україна reports Ukraine launched an integration program for 375 million Euros, supported by Denmark, focusing on resilience, energy security, and green energy transition, highlighting continued international support. РБК-Україна reports Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha named expectations for the 19th package of European sanctions against Russia, focusing on financial infrastructure and oil exports, highlighting continued diplomatic readiness to impose economic pressure. Zelenskiy / Official shares a video of a meeting with British Foreign Minister Yvette Cooper, thanking her for her first visit being to Ukraine, indicating continued high-level diplomatic support.
  • Effective counter-offensive drone operations against RF mechanized advances in Kostiantynivka direction.
  • UAF special forces destroyed an RF BMD-3 in the Zaporizhzhia direction and conducted successful strikes against RF artillery/personal in Kursk Oblast.
  • Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania closed border airspace, and Poland closed all border crossings with Belarus, demonstrating a coordinated NATO response to RF hybrid operations. STERNENKO reports Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania have partially closed their airspace, confirming a strong, coordinated NATO defensive measure. NEW: ASTRA reports that Lithuania and Estonia have closed their airspace for the duration of the Russian-Belarusian military exercises "West-2025." This is a significant defensive control measure by NATO allies. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Deployment of Rafale and Eurofighter jets by Britain and France to NATO's eastern flank.
  • UAF recognition of EW personnel day highlights commitment to critical capabilities. UAF General Staff issued a decree establishing the Day of Electronic Warfare Troops on September 12.
  • UAF General Staff reports a productive conversation with Polish Chief of General Staff, strengthening coordination amidst border crisis. Polish Foreign Minister arrived in Kyiv, signaling continued high-level diplomatic support.
  • Significant delivery of transport vehicles to the Zaporizhzhia front enhances UAF logistics and mobility.
  • UAF DSHV channels boosting morale by highlighting valorous individual soldiers.
  • Arrival of British Prince Harry in Kyiv boosts international attention and morale.
  • UAF 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" showcases new advanced UAVs.
  • STERNENKO reports over 400 air targets intercepted by "Shahedoriz" project. STERNENKO reports significant public fundraising for FPV drones (+280 in one day).
  • "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" (UAF milblogger) claims Ukrainian Defense Forces (СОУ) have "cleared and liberated" the villages of Shakhove and Volodymyrivka on the Dobropillya direction, a tactical success if verified.
  • The Office of the Prosecutor General reporting a trial for prison staff for torture demonstrates commitment to internal legal accountability and transparency. "Офіс Генерального прокурора" reports the detention of a woman in Kyiv selling cars imported as humanitarian aid for UAF, demonstrating UAF efforts to combat corruption. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports an ex-commander of a military unit in Lviv Oblast is suspected of million-dollar damages during the purchase of army beds, highlighting UAF internal anti-corruption efforts. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports completion of a pre-trial investigation into a Ukrainian MP accused of fraud, demonstrating continued anti-corruption efforts at higher levels. RBC-Україна reports that the pre-trial detention of Ruslan Magomedrasulov, an NABU official, has been extended, indicating ongoing Ukrainian anti-corruption efforts. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on a scheme to evade mobilization, showing successful counter-mobilization fraud efforts.
  • The bipartisan US Senate push to name Russia a state sponsor of terrorism indicates continued strong political support in the US.
  • RBC-Ukraine reports Sikorski's strong reaction to Trump's statement ("This was not a mistake") strengthens the pro-Ukrainian narrative and diplomatic alignment.
  • Zelenskyy's hosting of the "Fifth Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen" with various European dignitaries demonstrates continued high-level diplomatic engagement and international support for Ukraine's humanitarian and educational initiatives.
  • The SBU detention of the UOC-MP priest accused of adjusting RF strikes in Sumy Oblast represents a successful counter-intelligence operation, degrading RF's intelligence network.
  • The opening of a new European gauge rail line from Uzhhorod to Budapest and Vienna represents a significant logistical and economic success, improving Ukraine's connectivity with Europe.
  • Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski reiterating that the drone incursions into Poland were "not a mistake" is a clear diplomatic success, maintaining a strong, unified front against RF's hybrid actions and countering divisive narratives. Prince Harry's visit is a significant diplomatic and public relations success, drawing positive international attention and boosting morale.
  • UAF Air Force reports continued reconnaissance UAV activity by RF in northern Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, indicating UAF maintains vigilance and intelligence gathering capability in these areas.
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports successful raid actions by "Morok" assault battalion, 225th Separate Assault Regiment, using remote mining by "Pentagon" pilots to prevent RF interception, indicating successful tactical innovation and drone support.
  • "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares images and videos of a UAF vehicle undergoing repair, demonstrating successful maintenance efforts to sustain equipment.
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the 141st Mechanized Brigade has received Croatian M-84 tanks, indicating continued Western military aid and UAF modernization.
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a thermal drone video depicting a Russian soldier attempting to hide from a UAF drone operator (79th Airmobile Brigade), showcasing successful UAF drone hunter-killer operations.
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the elimination of Andriy Kuzmin, an RF contract soldier, near Byle in Kursk Oblast after signing a contract with the RF MoD, representing a human cost from RF's perspective, but an operational success for UAF if he was eliminated by UAF forces during a cross-border raid.
  • UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's video on energy facility restoration and winter preparations highlights resilience and proactive measures.
  • UAF leadership celebrating EW personnel day (Zelenskyy, Oleh Syniehubov) reinforces the importance of this capability and boosts morale. "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" also celebrates EW personnel.
  • UAF General Staff's announcement of a new digital document management course indicates successful efforts towards military modernization and efficiency.
  • The Coordination Staff for the Treatment of Prisoners of War met with families of "Lyut" Assault Brigade fighters provides direct support, crucial for morale.
  • RBC-Ukraine reports a shootout in Lviv, while an internal security issue, could be framed transparently to maintain public trust.
  • "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares content on "Day without booze," which could indicate a successful morale or health initiative within UAF. RBC-Ukraine reports a new state holiday in Ukraine, signed by Zelenskyy, fostering national identity. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the National Police liquidating a scheme for profiting from humanitarian vehicles for UAF in Kyiv, demonstrating transparent anti-corruption efforts. "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" reports high-level command's attention to critical fronts, bolstering confidence. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's video about a relocated art school in a bomb shelter showcases civilian resilience. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Staff for POWs) emphasizes continued support for military families and information dissemination, highlighting ongoing efforts to address the human dimension of the conflict on military families. Оперативний ЗСУ reporting on the Lviv shootout transparently manages internal security incidents. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА express gratitude for new UK sanctions, using diplomatic messaging to reinforce international support. "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" celebrating EW personnel contributes to military morale. "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" commemorating Oleksandr Dokukin fosters national unity and honors sacrifices. Оперативний ЗСУ amplifies Head of Bundestag Defense Committee Thomas Röwekamp stating Russian drones threatening NATO territory should be shot down over Ukraine, indicating a clear allied position. RBC-Україна reports that Ukrainian specialists will train Poles to shoot down drones, but not in Ukraine, shows a positive cooperative effort which boosts morale. The Coordination Staff for POWs is meeting with families of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade (UAF) fighters, providing crucial support for families and maintaining morale within the armed forces. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing UAF '3rd Army Corps' operations and captured individuals, if verified and handled according to protocols, can be used for IO to demonstrate UAF combat effectiveness and adherence to Geneva Conventions. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА share video of a meeting with Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, discussing further support, highlights continued UAF diplomatic success and commitment to European integration. STERNENKO video of the UAF BAS Fenix unit working daily on Russian logistics in Donetsk Oblast, by showing active combat success, boosts morale. РБК-Україна reporting on the DBR investigation into MP Shevchenko demonstrates commitment to transparency and anti-corruption, which helps maintain public trust and morale. Олександр Вілкул's messages ("ЖИТТЯ ТРИВАЄ!" - Life Continues!) and images of civilian events actively contribute to positive public sentiment and resilience. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's regular operational information updates reinforce transparency and trust in leadership. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА sharing a video of President Zelenskyy meeting with Polish Vice Prime Minister – Minister of Foreign Affairs Radosław Sikorski, discussing drone attack on Poland, and expressing readiness to share experience and train Polish military, and build a joint defense system. Zelenskyy expresses gratitude for Polish support and emphasizes close neighbor relations. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the "Shkval" battalion of the "Skelya" regiment conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine launched an integration program for 375 million Euros, supported by Denmark, focusing on resilience, energy security, and green energy transition, indicating a strong international commitment to Ukraine's long-term stability and defense. РБК-Україна reports that a delegation of Polish military personnel will arrive in Ukraine next week to work with Ukrainian forces on counter-drone issues, confirming strengthening military cooperation and knowledge transfer. РБК-Україна reports Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha named expectations for the 19th package of European sanctions against Russia, focusing on financial infrastructure and oil exports, highlighting continued diplomatic readiness to impose economic pressure. Zelenskiy / Official and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, share a video of President Zelenskyy stating "Putin's goal is the occupation of all Ukraine... Russia's war machine will only stop when it runs out of fuel," demonstrating UAF leadership's clear understanding of the enemy's intent and commitment to resistance. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy jokingly compared Kellogg's to air defense, offering citizenship to the company, indicating a proactive and creative approach to seeking international support and investment. Zelenskiy / Official shares a video of a meeting with British Foreign Minister Yvette Cooper, thanking her for her first visit being to Ukraine, which reinforces the narrative of strong international support. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy states giving land to Putin to stop the war is not a solution, but a pause, unequivocally reinforcing Ukrainian resolve against territorial concessions. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Zelenskyy states that 1600 interceptor drones (or at least 500 with other weapons) are needed to destroy 800 Shahed UAVs, openly communicating critical defensive requirements, which can serve to galvanize further public and international support. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration shares a video depicting an outdoor youth event with Ukrainian flags and a focus on resilience and future prospects, a morale-boosting initiative. UAF is managing the "Резерв+" app limitation transparently. NEW: "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" weekly summary video highlights significant enemy attacks (3300+), but also showcases UAF resilience through logistical support, infrastructure development (underground education), and humanitarian aid, effectively countering RF narratives of overwhelming force (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: РБК-Україна reporting on Foreign Minister Sybiha announcing exhumations of Ukrainian victims of the Volyn tragedy in Poland, by addressing sensitive historical issues, can help improve bilateral relations and public trust, indirectly supporting morale (Confidence: HIGH).

3.2. Recent tactical successes or setbacks (Confidence: HIGH)

• Successes:

  • High interception rate (94% previously, 33 of 40 in the latest wave, 5 more reported by STERNENKO) against RF UAV attack.
  • Successful repulsion of 130 RF attacks across multiple axes.
  • Effective drone operations by UAF units against RF personnel and equipment, particularly significant with 890 RF personnel eliminated in 24 hours. UAF sniper team eliminated six RF RF assault troops on the Toretsk front. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows destruction of RF military vehicles during combat operations, which could be attributed to UAF actions. SSO snipers engaging in close-quarters combat on Zaporizhzhia direction (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) demonstrates ground tactical success. STERNENKO reporting 5 more enemy UAVs shot down indicates continued counter-UAV success. STERNENKO also reports the 1st Separate Territorial Defense Brigade "Black Swarm" used fiber-optic drones to destroy a truck hidden in a large hangar and a cannon in Bryansk Oblast, indicating a successful deep strike and counter-logistics operation. NEW: "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares video showing a UAF MiG-29 conducting an aerial attack, described as "master class on dismantling the invaders' battalion headquarters" in Zaporizhzhia, indicating successful offensive air operations (Confidence: MEDIUM). NEW: "STERNENKO" shares drone footage indicating successful strikes by the 100th Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBr) against an RF tank, armored fighting vehicle (BBBM), and personnel. This represents a significant tactical success in degrading RF combat power. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Successful HUR strike on an RF Black Sea Fleet Project MPSV07 vessel, disabling a key support asset.
  • Successful destruction of a bridge near Nova Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, disrupting RF logistics.
  • Successful deep strikes into RF territory: explosions and fires at an oil depot in Smolensk Oblast and Primorsk port/pumping station in Leningrad Oblast; Luhansk ammunition depot; and numerous UAV incursions in Leningrad Oblast, Rostov Oblast, and Moscow region. Verified UAF videos from "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" confirming fires and explosions in Smolensk and Leningrad Oblasts, including a LUKOIL facility. Alleged UAV strike on Transneft oil pumping station "Vtorovo" in Vladimir Oblast, if verified, represents a significant success, expanding UAF deep strike range and target type. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares multiple videos depicting night-time explosions and missile trails, reinforcing UAF deep strike claims. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports an "explosive morning" in Leningrad Oblast, with videos, further reinforcing successful UAF deep strike claims. "Alex Parker Returns" shares video further supporting the Vladimir Oblast deep strike claim. RBC-Ukraine reports SBU drones hit Primorsk port, suspending oil shipments, indicating successful UAF deep strike and significant impact. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a direct hit on an RF location in occupied Kadiivka (Stakhanov), causing fire/explosions, demonstrating successful deep strike capability within occupied territories. ASTRA, citing SBU sources, confirms strike on Primorsk oil port. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno's analysis provides specific BDA for the Transneft strike, increasing confidence in its success. ASTRA reports that two berths and an oil tanker were damaged in the Primorsk oil loading port after a UAV attack, providing additional BDA for the UAF deep strike. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares new satellite imagery confirming damage to at least two tanks at Transneft's Vtorovo oil pumping station in Vladimir Oblast, further reinforcing the success of this deep strike.
  • US Congress approved $400 million in military aid, and Sweden committed $836M (20th package) and $4.276B annually for 2026-2027. British Foreign Minister in Kyiv announces $190 million winter aid package. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports Great Britain and Japan have introduced new sanctions against Russia, and the EU will present new sanctions on September 15, confirming continued international economic and diplomatic pressure. Germany calls on partners to supply long-range weapons for strikes on Russia. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports US will pressure G7 to impose tariffs on Indian and Chinese purchases of Russian oil, indicating potential future economic pressure on RF. RBC-Ukraine reports EU countries have extended sanctions and are preparing a 19th package. TASS reports the EU Commission will announce a 19th package of sanctions against RF on September 17. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА express gratitude for new UK sanctions, highlighting continued international support. RBC-Україна reports Ukraine launched an integration program for 375 million Euros, supported by Denmark, focusing on resilience, energy security, and green energy transition, highlighting continued international support. РБК-Україна reports Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha named expectations for the 19th package of European sanctions against Russia, focusing on financial infrastructure and oil exports, highlighting continued diplomatic readiness to impose economic pressure. Zelenskiy / Official shares a video of a meeting with British Foreign Minister Yvette Cooper, thanking her for her first visit being to Ukraine, indicating continued high-level diplomatic support.
  • Effective counter-offensive drone operations against RF mechanized advances in Kostiantynivka direction.
  • UAF special forces destroyed an RF BMD-3 in the Zaporizhzhia direction and conducted successful strikes against RF artillery/personal in Kursk Oblast.
  • Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania closed border airspace, and Poland closed all border crossings with Belarus, demonstrating a coordinated NATO response to RF hybrid operations. STERNENKO reports Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania have partially closed their airspace, confirming a strong, coordinated NATO defensive measure. NEW: ASTRA reports that Lithuania and Estonia have closed their airspace for the duration of the Russian-Belarusian military exercises "West-2025." This is a significant defensive control measure by NATO allies. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Deployment of Rafale and Eurofighter jets by Britain and France to NATO's eastern flank.
  • UAF recognition of EW personnel day highlights commitment to critical capabilities. UAF General Staff issued a decree establishing the Day of Electronic Warfare Troops on September 12.
  • UAF General Staff reports a productive conversation with Polish Chief of General Staff, strengthening coordination amidst border crisis. Polish Foreign Minister arrived in Kyiv, signaling continued high-level diplomatic support.
  • Significant delivery of transport vehicles to the Zaporizhzhia front enhances UAF logistics and mobility.
  • UAF DSHV channels boosting morale by highlighting valorous individual soldiers.
  • Arrival of British Prince Harry in Kyiv boosts international attention and morale.
  • UAF 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" showcases new advanced UAVs.
  • STERNENKO reports over 400 air targets intercepted by "Shahedoriz" project. STERNENKO reports significant public fundraising for FPV drones (+280 in one day).
  • "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" (UAF milblogger) claims Ukrainian Defense Forces (СОУ) have "cleared and liberated" the villages of Shakhove and Volodymyrivka on the Dobropillya direction, a tactical success if verified.
  • The Office of the Prosecutor General reporting a trial for prison staff for torture demonstrates commitment to internal legal accountability and transparency. "Офіс Генерального прокурора" reports the detention of a woman in Kyiv selling cars imported as humanitarian aid for UAF, demonstrating UAF efforts to combat corruption. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports an ex-commander of a military unit in Lviv Oblast is suspected of million-dollar damages during the purchase of army beds, highlighting UAF internal anti-corruption efforts. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports completion of a pre-trial investigation into a Ukrainian MP accused of fraud, demonstrating continued anti-corruption efforts at higher levels. RBC-Україна reports that the pre-trial detention of Ruslan Magomedrasulov, an NABU official, has been extended, indicating ongoing Ukrainian anti-corruption efforts. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on a scheme to evade mobilization, showing successful counter-mobilization fraud efforts.
  • The bipartisan US Senate push to name Russia a state sponsor of terrorism indicates continued strong political support in the US.
  • RBC-Ukraine reports Sikorski's strong reaction to Trump's statement ("This was not a mistake") strengthens the pro-Ukrainian narrative and diplomatic alignment.
  • Zelenskyy's hosting of the "Fifth Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen" with various European dignitaries demonstrates continued high-level diplomatic engagement and international support for Ukraine's humanitarian and educational initiatives.
  • The SBU detention of the UOC-MP priest accused of adjusting RF strikes in Sumy Oblast represents a successful counter-intelligence operation, degrading RF's intelligence network.
  • The opening of a new European gauge rail line from Uzhhorod to Budapest and Vienna represents a significant logistical and economic success, improving Ukraine's connectivity with Europe.
  • Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski reiterating that the drone incursions into Poland were "not a mistake" is a clear diplomatic success, maintaining a strong, unified front against RF's hybrid actions and countering divisive narratives. Prince Harry's visit is a significant diplomatic and public relations success, drawing positive international attention and boosting morale.
  • UAF Air Force reports continued reconnaissance UAV activity by RF in northern Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, indicating UAF maintains vigilance and intelligence gathering capability in these areas.
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports successful raid actions by "Morok" assault battalion, 225th Separate Assault Regiment, using remote mining by "Pentagon" pilots to prevent RF interception, indicating successful tactical innovation and drone support.
  • "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares images and videos of a UAF vehicle undergoing repair, demonstrating successful maintenance efforts to sustain equipment.
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the 141st Mechanized Brigade has received Croatian M-84 tanks, indicating continued Western military aid and UAF modernization.
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a thermal drone video depicting a Russian soldier attempting to hide from a UAF drone operator (79th Airmobile Brigade), showcasing successful UAF drone hunter-killer operations.
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the elimination of Andriy Kuzmin, an RF contract soldier, near Byle in Kursk Oblast after signing a contract with the RF MoD, representing a human cost from RF's perspective, but an operational success for UAF if he was eliminated by UAF forces during a cross-border raid.
  • UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's video on energy facility restoration and winter preparations highlights resilience and proactive measures.
  • UAF leadership celebrating EW personnel day (Zelenskyy, Oleh Syniehubov) reinforces the importance of this capability and boosts morale. "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" also celebrates EW personnel.
  • UAF General Staff's announcement of a new digital document management course indicates successful efforts towards military modernization and efficiency.
  • The Coordination Staff for the Treatment of Prisoners of War met with families of "Lyut" Assault Brigade fighters provides direct support, crucial for morale.
  • RBC-Ukraine reports a shootout in Lviv, while an internal security issue, could be framed transparently to maintain public trust.
  • "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares content on "Day without booze," which could indicate a successful morale or health initiative within UAF. RBC-Ukraine reports a new state holiday in Ukraine, signed by Zelenskyy, fostering national identity. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the National Police liquidating a scheme for profiting from humanitarian vehicles for UAF in Kyiv, demonstrating transparent anti-corruption efforts. "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" reports high-level command's attention to critical fronts, bolstering confidence. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's video about a relocated art school in a bomb shelter showcases civilian resilience. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Staff for POWs) emphasizes continued support for military families and information dissemination, highlighting ongoing efforts to address the human dimension of the conflict on military families. Оперативний ЗСУ reporting on the Lviv shootout transparently manages internal security incidents. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА express gratitude for new UK sanctions, using diplomatic messaging to reinforce international support. "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" celebrating EW personnel contributes to military morale. "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" commemorating Oleksandr Dokukin fosters national unity and honors sacrifices. Оперативний ЗСУ amplifies Head of Bundestag Defense Committee Thomas Röwekamp stating Russian drones threatening NATO territory should be shot down over Ukraine, indicating a clear allied position. RBC-Україна reports that Ukrainian specialists will train Poles to shoot down drones, but not in Ukraine, shows a positive cooperative effort which boosts morale. The Coordination Staff for POWs is meeting with families of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade (UAF) fighters, providing crucial support for families and maintaining morale within the armed forces. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing UAF '3rd Army Corps' operations and captured individuals, if verified and handled according to protocols, can be used for IO to demonstrate UAF combat effectiveness and adherence to Geneva Conventions. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА sharing video of a meeting with Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, discussing further support, highlights continued UAF diplomatic success and commitment to European integration. STERNENKO video of the UAF BAS Fenix unit working daily on Russian logistics in Donetsk Oblast, by showing active combat success, boosts morale. РБК-Україна reporting on the DBR investigation into MP Shevchenko demonstrates commitment to transparency and anti-corruption, which helps maintain public trust and morale. Олександр Вілкул's messages ("ЖИТТЯ ТРИВАЄ!" - Life Continues!) and images of civilian events actively contribute to positive public sentiment and resilience. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's regular operational information updates reinforce transparency and trust in leadership. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА sharing a video of President Zelenskyy meeting with Polish Vice Prime Minister – Minister of Foreign Affairs Radosław Sikorski, discussing drone attack on Poland, and expressing readiness to share experience and train Polish military, and build a joint defense system. Zelenskyy expresses gratitude for Polish support and emphasizes close neighbor relations. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the "Shkval" battalion of the "Skelya" regiment conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine launched an integration program for 375 million Euros, supported by Denmark, focusing on resilience, energy security, and green energy transition, indicating a strong international commitment to Ukraine's long-term stability and defense. РБК-Україна reports that a delegation of Polish military personnel will arrive in Ukraine next week to work with Ukrainian forces on counter-drone issues, confirming strengthening military cooperation and knowledge transfer. РБК-Україна reports Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha named expectations for the 19th package of European sanctions against Russia, focusing on financial infrastructure and oil exports, highlighting continued diplomatic readiness to impose economic pressure. Zelenskiy / Official and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, share a video of President Zelenskyy stating "Putin's goal is the occupation of all Ukraine... Russia's war machine will only stop when it runs out of fuel," demonstrating UAF leadership's clear understanding of the enemy's intent and commitment to resistance. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy jokingly compared Kellogg's to air defense, offering citizenship to the company, indicating a proactive and creative approach to seeking international support and investment. Zelenskiy / Official shares a video of a meeting with British Foreign Minister Yvette Cooper, thanking her for her first visit being to Ukraine, which reinforces the narrative of strong international support. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy states giving land to Putin to stop the war is not a solution, but a pause, unequivocally reinforcing Ukrainian resolve against territorial concessions. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Zelenskyy states that 1600 interceptor drones (or at least 500 with other weapons) are needed to destroy 800 Shahed UAVs, openly communicating critical defensive requirements, which can serve to galvanize further public and international support. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration shares a video depicting an outdoor youth event with Ukrainian flags and a focus on resilience and future prospects, a morale-boosting initiative. UAF is managing the "Резерв+" app limitation transparently. NEW: "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" weekly summary video highlights significant enemy attacks but also showcases resilience through logistical support and community preparedness, which will likely boost local and national morale (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: РБК-Україна reporting on Foreign Minister Sybiha announcing exhumations of Ukrainian victims of the Volyn tragedy in Poland, by addressing sensitive historical issues, can help improve bilateral relations and public trust, indirectly supporting morale (Confidence: HIGH).

• Setbacks:

  • RF exploitation of the Pokrovsk breakthrough, leading to urban combat within Pokrovsk city limits. "Сливочный каприз" video confirms intense artillery bombardment of a settlement in the Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk area, indicating ongoing destruction and pressure, including in Vladimirovka.
  • Continued significant damage to DIB, energy, and civilian infrastructure from RF deep strikes (e.g., Sumy, Kramatorsk, Trypilska TPP). One security guard killed under rubble in Sumy. Fatalities and destruction in residential areas of Sumy Oblast due to RF missile strikes (2 killed, 5 houses destroyed in one village, 3 killed overall per ASTRA, 2 killed, 5 injured in Bytytsia per ЦАПЛІЄНКО). At least 5 injured in a village in Sumy Oblast. "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" reporting "tragedy" in Nikopol region due to enemy terror, implying ongoing civilian impact. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports a threat of aviation munition use in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykove district), indicating ongoing air threats. RBC-Україна reports on the potential risk of a nuclear accident at the Kharkiv Neutron Source facility due to RF strikes. RF UAVs are moving towards Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorod district), posing an immediate threat.
  • Civilian casualties from RF attacks remain high (Yarova, Polohy Raion, Prymorske, Sumy security guard, Sumy residential areas). TASS reports 1 killed, 6 wounded in Kherson Oblast due to UAF shelling, which RF will use for IO. Oleg Sinegubov reports RF drone attack on a civilian vehicle in Shevchenkivska community, Kharkiv Oblast.
  • RF's "liberation" of Sosnovka and Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, represents a significant territorial setback for UAF and a new threat of encirclement to Velykomykhailivka. TASS reporting RF "practically dislodged" UAF from Novomykolaivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast represents a further territorial setback, expanding RF's Dnipropetropvsk salient. "Z комитет + карта СВО" tactical maps indicate RF advances around Velykomykhailivka and Novoivanivka, further reinforcing this territorial pressure. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reporting capture of enemy stronghold near Fedorovka on Siverske direction represents a localized territorial setback for UAF.
  • The loss of UAF Major Oleksandr Borovyk and a Su-27 aircraft in Zaporizhzhia direction is a critical operational setback, impacting air defense and offensive air capabilities. MoD Russia claiming the Su-27 was destroyed in aerial combat highlights a direct air-to-air loss. Colonelcassad reports finding the wreckage of the Su-27 near Dobropillya, which requires immediate UAF verification and BDA to confirm the loss. NEW: "Военкор Котенок" shares a photo of the wreckage of a Ukrainian Su-27, claimed to be shot down yesterday in Zaporizhzhia, representing a confirmed UAF air asset loss and a significant setback (Confidence: HIGH).
  • Localized territorial loss with RF claims of controlling 50% of Pereyizne (Siversk direction). RF claims control over Kolodyazi and "practically dislodged" UAF from Kirovsk on the Krasny Liman direction, representing further territorial losses. Confirmed sustained RF advances in Pokrovsk-Myrnograd area by Рыбарь. "Операция Z" tactical maps suggesting advances in the Novopavlovsk direction imply additional territorial pressure. "Воин DV" implicitly criticizes UAF's delayed acknowledgement of territorial losses, suggesting an information setback.
  • Persistent diplomatic friction with Hungary and Slovakia due to political statements, indicating challenges in maintaining international unity. While Hungarian PM Orban expressed solidarity with Poland, his broader alignment with RF narratives remains a challenge for UAF diplomatic unity efforts.
  • RF claims of destroying a UAF UAV control point and communication antenna (Starlink) in Siversk direction, if verified, represents a setback for UAF drone operations and C2. "Народная милиция ДНР" shares drone footage of RF 68th ORB destroying a UAF communications antenna/Starlink. Colonelcassad reports RF "Sparta" battalion destroying two UAF UAV control points and a communication antenna near Dimitrov.
  • RF FPV drone ambushes are successfully targeting UAF transport in Kharkiv Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast. Thermal drone footage from RF's 35th Army targeting UAF personnel with FPV drones on the Polohy direction demonstrates continued RF FPV effectiveness. Thermal drone footage of "Anvar" special forces attacking a convoy on Sumy axis indicates another successful RF drone operation.
  • RF UAV operators are disrupting UAF rotations in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • RF claims of destroying ~30% of UAF vehicles in DPR rear areas represents a potential significant logistical setback (requires verification).
  • RF claims of up to 80% destruction of UAF assault groups near Andriyivka, Sumy Oblast, if accurate, represents a severe tactical setback in personnel and offensive capacity (requires verification).
  • RF 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment reportedly advancing on Sumy front, indicating new pressure on a previously stable sector.
  • Civilian casualties in Belgorod and Bryansk Oblasts, attributed to UAF by RF, present an IO challenge and potential for escalation. Bryansk Governor reports 5 injured, including 2 "Bars-Bryansk" fighters, from UAF strikes on a passenger minibus, a severe IO challenge. Poddubny and Belgorod Mayor confirm a woman killed in Belgorod. ASTRA reports the Pantsir booster causing civilian death in Belgorod could, if widely known, erode public trust in RF air defenses and the narrative of UAF sole responsibility, potentially impacting morale negatively or causing public questioning. This presents a new IO challenge for RF.
  • RF snipers successfully targeting UAF "Baba Yaga" drones indicates an effective counter-UAV tactic. Colonelcassad reports a "Baba Yaga" hexacopter was shot down by "Viking" operators, highlighting a tactical setback for UAF drone operations.
  • RF claim of destruction of a UAF 155mm charge storage site by a VT-40 FPV drone, if verified, represents a setback for UAF artillery logistics.
  • RF MOD claims of 221 Ukrainian UAVs shot down overnight, if accurate, indicate significant losses for UAF deep strike capabilities.
  • ASTRA reports Smolensk Governor Anokhin claims no damage or casualties from UAF drone attacks in Smolensk, which, if accurate, would negate a previous UAF success claim.
  • The "Rubizh" brigade fundraising for destroyed equipment implies recent combat losses that require replacement.
  • The graphic video of multiple deceased and dismembered individuals shared by "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" highlights the extreme human cost and severity of combat, which can impact morale.
  • UAF dissatisfaction with Trump's statements ("empty talker") reflects a setback in perceived unwavering US political unity.
  • Continued RF reconnaissance UAV activity in northern Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts indicates persistent threat and UAF resource expenditure on defense in these border regions.
  • RBC-Ukraine reporting on rising food prices in Ukraine could negatively impact civilian morale and stability.
  • "Alex Parker Returns" shares a derogatory post about Finnish President Stubb's closeness to Zelenskyy, attempting to undermine UAF diplomatic efforts.
  • The "pause" in negotiations reported by Peskov indicates a diplomatic setback, or at least a stagnation of efforts to find a peaceful resolution, which could be exploited by RF.
  • RBC-Ukraine reports a shootout in an auto service office in Lviv Oblast with fatalities, indicating an internal security incident that could divert resources or impact morale.
  • TASS reports a UAF drone attacked the Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant, even if only hitting ancillary facilities. This represents a significant security breach and a potential escalation by RF in its IO. Росатом's statement downplaying damage at Smolensk NPP may also be a setback for UAF IO if the true impact was indeed minor.
  • RF claims of strikes on Ukrainian defense industry and military assets from 6-12 September, if accurate, represent continued attrition of UAF capabilities.
  • "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares graphic video of combat scenarios, including destruction of military vehicles, representing a possible RF tactical setback or at least intense attrition for both sides. "Воин DV" video showing destroyed military equipment and deceased soldiers in Zaporizhzhia indicates a setback in terms of losses on the battlefield.
  • "Воин DV" video capturing RF FPV drone operations targeting light vehicles and personnel suggests that UAF continues to face effective RF tactical engagements and associated losses.
  • Оперативний ЗСУ highlights RF's increasing use of FPV "Zhduny" drones, suggesting UAF is facing a new, evolving threat that could lead to increased ambushes and losses.
  • The extension of pre-trial detention for NABU official Ruslan Magomedrasulov, while an internal anti-corruption effort, could be perceived as a setback for UAF's image of transparency if the case becomes protracted or contentious.
  • "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" reports opening a memorial plaque for fallen defender Oleksandr Dokukin, which confirms a UAF casualty.
  • TASS reports an accident on a cable car on Elbrus killed a local resident and a tourist. While a civilian incident, this represents a domestic setback for RF in terms of safety and public services. Colonelcassad's report of a destroyed UAF PVD and three automotive units in Sumy Oblast represents a tactical setback for UAF logistics and personnel. Операція Z and its "Voenkory Russkoy Vesny" (Russian Spring War Correspondents) report that Polish military personnel will NOT come to Ukraine for counter-drone training, indicating a potential diplomatic setback or at least a miscommunication in cooperation efforts, which RF IO will exploit. The appearance of Russian FPV drones in central Kramatorsk (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) represents a significant security breach and tactical setback for UAF in maintaining control of deep urban areas. The "Резерв+" app limitation (РБК-Україна) could be a setback for UAF if it impacts mobilization efforts or public perception. NEW: MoD Russia reports that in Dnepropetrovsk region, operators of the Vostok Group's UAVs successfully overwhelmed control channels of an enemy heavy hexacopter. This represents a tactical setback for UAF drone operations. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Polish FM Sikorski acknowledged some drones violating Polish airspace came from Ukraine, not solely Belarus. This represents a diplomatic setback for UAF, as it provides RF with new leverage for IO to shift blame for airspace violations and potentially complicate future military aid. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "РБК-Україна" reports a NATO general states "Operation Eastern Guardian" does not include integration with Ukrainian air defense. This is a potential diplomatic setback or clarification that may limit direct NATO support for UAF air defense, which could impact UAF's long-term air defense strategy. (Confidence: HIGH)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

• Propaganda and disinformation campaigns:

  • RF Narratives (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF continues to push aggressive, multi-layered propaganda. Key narratives include: portraying UAF as targeting civilian infrastructure (e.g., ZNPP training center, Sumy non-residential building, Polohy Raion, Belgorod/Bryansk civilian casualties, Western Ukraine missile incident), specifically leveraging the Bryansk minibus attack and the latest Belgorod casualties to blame UAF for attacking civilians and "Bars-Bryansk" fighters; blaming Ukraine for attacks on RF territory (e.g., Belgorod, Bryansk, and now Leningrad Oblast, Rostov Oblast, Smolensk, Vladimir Oblast, Smolensk NPP) while claiming successful homeland air defense (e.g., 221 UAVs downed) and even denying damage (Smolensk, Росатом on Smolensk NPP); denying responsibility for NATO airspace violations (e.g., Polish drone incident) while amplifying Trump's "could be a mistake" statement, and now claiming the damage was pre-existing (amplifying former Polish MEP's accusation); framing NATO's response as escalatory (e.g., Poland's troop deployment, Rafale/Eurofighter deployment, Abrams tanks in Poland); dismissing Western support as ineffective; exploiting internal Western political issues (e.g., US internal divisions, Charlie Kirk murder, alleged LGBT/Antifa links to the weapon, using images from the Charlie Kirk investigation to tie to broader anti-Western narratives, US Congress repealing AUMFs, Bolsonaro's sentencing in Brazil to highlight US pressure and push for BRICS, identifying Charlie Kirk suspect Tyler Robinson from Utah); and sowing discord (e.g., between Poland/Ukraine, critical of NATO's response). RF milbloggers are key amplifiers, mocking NATO's "slow" response to drone incursions and amplifying perceived Western disunity (e.g., Slovak FM statements). Lavrov's statement blaming the US for arming Ukraine is a core RF narrative. RF is leveraging the "West-2025" exercises to project military strength and unity, including naval power (Northern Fleet deployments (including Arctic Ocean) and Pacific Fleet exercises). RF is conducting internal IO to boost morale (e.g., increased military salaries, celebrating educational work bodies, using children in propaganda, promoting nationalistic religious events like the Alexander Nevsky procession in St. Petersburg, celebrating Ella Pamfilova, propaganda for "Admiral Kuznetsov," promoting Moscow voting centers, naming 90 polling stations after war participants). RF denies the existence or location of successful UAF deep strikes (e.g., initially for Smolensk/Primorsk, now explicitly Smolensk). RF claims UAF units on the Serebryansk direction received direct orders to shoot at civilians. RF seeks to control historical narratives (e.g., Mannerheim). RF frames Japan's sanctions as aggressive economic warfare. RF also claims UAF is using "unprepared recruits" for assault groups (e.g., Poltava's "Skala" regiment), attempting to portray UAF as desperate and ineffective. RF claims control of Kolodyazi and Kirovsk to project battlefield success. TASS attributes UAF "looting" in Krasny Liman to a preparation for withdrawal, a clear RF IO attempt to demoralize UAF and signal RF battlefield dominance. "Военкор Котенок" (RF milblogger) pushes a narrative of UAF repressing citizens who report "correct behavior" by RF soldiers in Kyiv Oblast, aiming to delegitimize Ukrainian authorities and promote a false image of RF forces. RF claims to be effectively countering "Baba Yaga" drones with snipers. Операция Z circulates highly inflammatory and graphic content to demonize Ukrainian authorities (TCC priest incident, and now the SBU arrest of the UOC-MP priest in Sumy). The FSB detention of an alleged UAF financier will be used to portray RF as actively countering internal threats. TASS reports a 14-year-old son of a Russian officer participating in the SVO was added to the Ukrainian "Myrotvorets" extremist website, which RF will use to demonstrate alleged Ukrainian extremism and target Russian military families for propaganda purposes. TASS reports a resident of Crimea was sentenced to 17 years for preparing a terrorist attack, which RF will leverage for internal security messaging and demonization of Ukrainian supporters. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) uses videos of Russian schoolchildren handling firearms and "FAKE" overlays to discredit Ukrainian claims about militarization of Russian youth, while simultaneously promoting patriotic education, demonstrating complex IO. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" projects the Special Military Operation (SVO) will conclude in 2027 with the capture of Odesa and Mykolaiv, a long-term strategic IO goal. "Воин DV" (RF milblogger) reports on upcoming US-South Korea nuclear exercises, which RF will use to frame NATO/US as aggressive. "Alex Parker Returns" shares another image of the Charlie Kirk assassination, reiterating the RF IO narrative. "Kotsnews" discusses a video regarding a boy on "Mirotvorets", claiming the original video was "fake" to discredit Ukrainian media/IO, demonstrating continued RF efforts to control narratives around youth militarization and alleged Ukrainian extremism. "Alex Parker Returns" shares a post regarding the sentencing of former Brazilian president Bolsonaro, leveraging it to highlight US pressure and push Brazil towards BRICS, furthering a narrative of anti-Western alliances. ASTRA reports 90 polling stations across Russia are named in honor of participants in the war with Ukraine, a clear RF IO effort to normalize and glorify the conflict within civilian life and promote military patriotism during elections. TASS publishes an interview with Rodion Miroshnik claiming Ukraine attacked border regions to disrupt Russia-US summit in Alaska, a clear IO attempt to blame UAF for cross-border strikes and frame UAF as disruptive to diplomacy. TASS claims Tatiana Kurtukova, singer of "Matushka," was added to Ukrainian "Myrotvorets" extremist website, another RF IO play to demonstrate alleged Ukrainian extremism and target cultural figures. "Басурин о главном" disseminates RT information on the mother of defector pilot Kuzminov, suggesting an ongoing RF effort to discredit defectors and their families. "Старше Эдды" shares a video and caption claiming a video of a boy on "Myrotvorets" was "fake," continuing RF efforts to control narratives around youth militarization and alleged Ukrainian extremism. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares a video and caption about Alla Pugacheva giving an interview to a "foreign agent," an IO attempt to discredit dissenting cultural figures. "Полиция Хабаровского края" shares a video celebrating a Russian TV program focused on law enforcement, projecting internal stability and competence. "Colonelcassad" claims former Pentagon aide Stephen Bryen stated fallen drones in Poland were under Ukrainian control, amplifying a narrative to shift blame. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shares a graphic claim that the father of a Ukrainian killed in the US was not allowed to leave Ukraine due to conscription age, another RF IO effort to demonize Ukrainian authorities and create sympathy for draft evaders. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares images and video commemorating a deceased project leader, aimed at internal morale and heroism narratives. "Z комитет + карта СВО" shares tactical maps of Velykomykhailivka and Novoivanivka to promote RF advances. "Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration" shares video of President Zelenskyy speaking at the Fifth Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen, emphasizing education and international solidarity, a UAF counter-IO effort. "Два майора" accuse Ukraine of issuing "another fake" and circulating it in social networks, specifically referencing a video about children learning to handle firearms, reinforcing RF's efforts to counter Ukrainian information. TASS quotes Rodion Miroshnik claiming the West supplies Ukraine with "inoperable Patriot air defenses," a clear IO attempt to discredit Western aid and boost RF confidence. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" amplifies former Pentagon aide Stephen Bryen's claim that fallen drones in Poland were under Ukrainian control, further shifting blame away from RF. "Два майора" post a memorial for a project leader of "Archangel Spetsnaz," another internal morale-boosting and heroism narrative. TASS quotes Florian Philippot, French "Patriots" party leader, claiming Western countries want to accelerate a full-scale war, an RF IO effort to portray the West as aggressive. "Alex Parker Returns" amplifies the claim by former Pentagon aide Stephen Bryen that fallen drones in Poland were under Ukrainian control and part of a provocation for more NATO weapons, reinforcing a key RF disinformation narrative. "Alex Parker Returns" shares a derogatory post about Finnish President Stubb's closeness to Zelenskyy, aiming to undermine the perception of Western unity and leadership. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares a video promoting "Faith in the SVO" project, showing a priest with soldiers, reinforcing religious and morale-boosting narratives within RF armed forces. Рыбарь's "Historical Decision" post appears to be political propaganda, without direct military significance, but aiming to reinforce RF narratives. RF utilizes weather (Moscow dryness) for neutral reporting, maintaining an appearance of normalcy. Alex Parker Returns shares multiple posts about Donald Trump potentially visiting Uzbekistan, likely to highlight his global influence or to contrast with the ongoing conflict. Maria Zakharova (TASS) states that Denmark's plans to produce solid rocket fuel for long-range missiles in Ukraine are an "adventure" and a "militarist course" that would escalate the conflict, indicating a new RF IO narrative to counter Western aid. TASS and Alex Parker Returns report the detention of an individual planning an assassination attempt on Vladimir Solovyev, framed as a Ukrainian special services operation, which RF will use for internal security messaging and demonification of Ukraine. TASS, Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, RBC-Ukraine, and Оперативний ЗСУ all report Peskov's statement about a "pause" in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, which RF will use to project a desire for dialogue while blaming European interference. Maria Zakharova (ТАСС) claims the West is trying to "fit" a legal base for stealing Russian assets, indicating continued RF IO regarding Western sanctions. Рыбарь discusses Moldovan President Sandu's statements, likely for IO against Moldova or to highlight its pro-Western stance. Maria Zakharova (Операция Z) claims "Zelenskyy is killing you for Western money," a highly inflammatory statement designed to undermine UAF and Western support. TASS shares a statement from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban claiming Ursula von der Leyen is leading the EU into an abyss with her political course, reinforcing narratives of EU disunity. TASS shares Maria Zakharova's statement accusing Kyiv of "gloating" over the Kirk assassination, proving the West has "raised a bloody monster" out of Kyiv, escalating inflammatory rhetoric. "Воин DV" sarcastically comments on Ukraine's delayed admission of territorial losses, implying UAF information manipulation. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reports on the "pause" in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, reinforcing the Kremlin's narrative. Colonelcassad reports the FSB detention of a Russian citizen in Klimovsk for allegedly financing UAF, which RF will use for internal security and propaganda. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares graphic combat footage, likely to demonstrate RF combat effectiveness or the brutality of war from their perspective. "Рыбарь" posts about "Prince on a white horse?" possibly a sarcastic comment on high-profile visits or a general IO message. AV БогомаZ posts about opening a new school in Bryansk, a civilian IO effort to project normalcy and development. "Операция Z" and "Военкор Котенок" amplify the claim of UAF attacking the Smolensk NPP, framing it as "nuclear terrorism," a severe escalation of RF IO. Maria Zakharova's statements are amplified by TASS, furthering RF's diplomatic IO. Colonelcassad's comment on the "fool" Vice-Mayor of Riga reinforces anti-Western sentiment. TASS reports Maria Zakharova's statements from a briefing, including criticisms of the West, indicating ongoing diplomatic IO. ТАСС reports on comments from the Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Financial Markets, Aksakov, stating that further reductions in the key interest rate are possible by the end of 2025, which will be used to project economic stability. Операция Z (RusVesna) shares video and images with the caption "Дети «для войны» и дети «для Европы»," contrasting statements by Ukrainian officials with the perceived lifestyle of their children abroad, a clear RF IO effort to expose alleged hypocrisy and sow discontent within Ukraine. Maria Zakharova (Басурин о главном) uses her official platform to accuse the "Kyiv regime" of conducting "terrorist war against peaceful residents of Russia," citing specific incidents in various regions, reinforcing RF's narrative for both domestic and international audiences. ТАСС reports that the German MFA summoned the Russian Ambassador regarding the drone incident in Poland, which RF will use to frame NATO as overly aggressive or to project its own diplomatic strength by having its ambassador summoned. TASS reports Trump stating the suspect in the Charlie Kirk murder is "very likely" in custody, leveraging US domestic news for IO. "Военкор Котенок" amplifies Trump's statement on the Charlie Kirk suspect. Alex Parker Returns and Оперативний ЗСУ also amplify Trump's statement on the Charlie Kirk suspect, further disseminating this US domestic news in the RF IO space. Alex Parker Returns shares a video featuring Donald Trump discussing the death penalty for the Kirk suspect, further amplifying this narrative. TASS also reports Trump hopes for the death penalty for Kirk's killer, reinforcing the RF IO focus on this event. Рыбарь shares a map titled "Cocaine Bridge," which, while not directly military, may allude to illicit activities or narratives for IO. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares a photo message about the "First ban on leaving the country due to the electronic register of subpoenas," indicating a new RF IO narrative on mobilization and internal control. ТАСС reports that Dmitry Bykov (recognized as a foreign agent and extremist in RF) is accused of spreading false information about RF shelling of Kharkiv, indicating RF IO targeting dissenting voices and controlling narratives about its actions in Ukraine. РБК-Україна shares a photo message about "Departure abroad for guys aged 18-22: has business felt the outflow of personnel," indicating a UAF-aligned IO focusing on the impact of mobilization on Ukrainian society. "Два майора" shares photo messages and text expressing concern about "United Russia" candidates in regional elections, specifically mentioning issues with diaspora leaders, which may represent an internal RF IO critique or concern. "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" shares photo messages about opening a memorial plaque to fallen defender Oleksandr Dokukin, a UAF IO effort to honor fallen soldiers and boost morale. Офіс Генерального прокурора shares a photo message about a "scheme of fictitious employment in 'fake' educational institutions to evade mobilization," indicating a UAF internal IO effort to combat draft evasion. TASS now identifies the Charlie Kirk killer suspect as 22-year-old Tyler Robinson from Utah, using NYP as a source, continuing to amplify US domestic news for IO purposes. TASS shares a video of Nabiullina discussing housing construction growth (10%) and price doubling (2x) since 2020, likely for domestic economic IO. Новости Москвы advertises a cashback program from Alfa-Bank for train tickets, another domestic IO effort to promote normalcy and consumerism. The Coordination Staff for POWs is holding a meeting with families of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade (UAF) fighters, demonstrating UAF commitment to POW support. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of Ukrainian soldiers from the '3rd Army Corps' operating in a rural environment, including interaction with captured individuals, indicating active offensive/clearing operations. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА share video of a meeting with Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, discussing further support, defense aid, joint weapons production, and EU membership, highlighting continued UAF diplomatic efforts. STERNENKO shares video of the UAF BAS Fenix unit working daily on Russian logistics in Donetsk Oblast, showcasing UAF operational effectiveness against RF supply lines. РБК-Україна reports the State Bureau of Investigation (DBR) has completed its investigation into Ukrainian MP Yevhen Shevchenko for treason and fraud, demonstrating continued UAF anti-corruption efforts. Олександр Вілкул shares multiple photo messages with the caption "ЖИТТЯ ТРИВАЄ!" (Life Continues!), depicting civilian events with traditional Ukrainian attire, a UAF IO effort to boost morale and project normalcy amidst the conflict. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational information as of 16:00, 12.09.2025, continuing regular updates. TASS reports the Central Bank is concerned about unsubstantiated blocking of citizen funds and will take measures, an RF IO effort to reassure the public about economic stability. Colonelcassad amplifies former Polish MEP Janusz Korwin-Mikke's accusation that Ukraine launched drones towards Poland, reinforcing RF's narrative to shift blame. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photo messages on "Ukraine on the way to the EU: Zaporizhzhia entrepreneurs and experts discussed legislative changes," a UAF IO effort to promote economic integration and European aspirations. AV БогомаZ (Bryansk Governor) shares multiple photo messages depicting civilian development projects in Zhurinichi (Bryansk Oblast), including new school-kindergarten, medical post, sports complex, and a greenhouse complex, representing local IO to project normalcy and development. Kotsnews shares photo messages of an "artilleryman's amulet" ("Оберег артиллериста. Окопная проза «Адлера»"), likely for RF troop morale. Hungarian PM Orban reiterates solidarity with Poland regarding drone incursions, despite previous RF efforts to portray disunity. This is a diplomatic setback for RF IO that RF will need to address in its information environment. "Военкор Котенок" shares a photo message identifying the Charlie Kirk killer suspect as 22-year-old Tyler Robinson from Utah, indicating continued amplification of this US domestic news for IO. TASS reports that Fadeev, head of the Human Rights Council (RF), stated that returning to oral exams in schools will help objectively assess knowledge amid the use of AI by students, indicating an RF IO focus on adapting education and implicitly acknowledging challenges posed by AI. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports that the Telegram channel VChK-OGPU, close to RF security forces, reports a social explosion in occupied Donetsk Oblast due to catastrophic water supply issues, as evidenced by closed sociological surveys, indicating a potential internal weakness for RF. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine launched an integration program for 375 million Euros, supported by Denmark, focusing on resilience, energy security, and green energy transition, highlighting continued international support. РБК-Україна reports that a delegation of Polish military personnel will arrive in Ukraine next week to work with Ukrainian forces on counter-drone issues, confirming strengthening military cooperation. РБК-Україна reports Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha named expectations for the 19th package of European sanctions against Russia, focusing on financial infrastructure and oil exports, indicating continued economic pressure on RF. Zelenskiy / Official and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, share a video of President Zelenskyy stating "Putin's goal is the occupation of all Ukraine... Russia's war machine will only stop when it runs out of fuel," indicating a clear and resolute UAF stance. Басурин о главном shares a video of Junior Sergeant Andrei Lavrov from Moscow promoting a propaganda message about loyalty and the SVO, demonstrating RF internal morale boosting efforts. Операція Z and its "Voenkory Russkoy Vesny" (Russian Spring War Correspondents) contradict earlier reports, stating that Polish military personnel will NOT come to Ukraine for counter-drone training, but will learn FROM UAF specialists on Polish territory. This represents a nuanced adjustment in the narrative of Polish-Ukrainian military cooperation from an RF perspective, possibly to downplay direct NATO involvement in Ukraine. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy jokingly compared Kellogg's to air defense, offering citizenship to the company, indicating a lighthearted approach to IO and an attempt to attract foreign investment/support. ТАСС reports the State Duma may consider a bill for year-round conscription on September 24th, indicating RF's focus on maintaining troop numbers. Alex Parker Returns posts a derogatory caption about Zelenskyy and General Kellogg, accusing Zelenskyy of being a "military dictator" and offering citizenship to Kellogg if it stops shelling, framing it as hysterical and desperate. Zelenskiy / Official shares a video of a meeting with British Foreign Minister Yvette Cooper, thanking her for her first visit being to Ukraine, indicating continued high-level diplomatic support. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy states giving land to Putin is not a solution, but a pause. Операция Z amplifies Zelenskyy's statement about Putin's goal as an "hysterical" reaction. Два майора posts multiple photo messages alleging US funding of NGOs to "maidanize" Belarusian people, implying Western interference. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Zelenskyy states that to destroy 800 Shahed UAVs, 1600 interceptor drones are needed, or at least 500, with other weapons, indicating a critical need for air defense assets. ТАСС reports a tenfold increase in "Sber" fraud cases with fake "Gosuslugi" accounts, indicating an internal cyber security threat impacting civilian financial services. Colonelcassad reports inscriptions on Kirk's killer's rifle ammunition ("If you read this, you're gay, lol", "Hey fascist, catch", and "Bella Ciao"), which RF will leverage for IO to demonize the killer and link him to Western/leftist extremist narratives. ТАСС reports Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski stated that Poland does not see any reason to sever diplomatic relations with Russia, providing a nuanced diplomatic stance from a key NATO member. NEW: RBC-Україна reports Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski stating that intensified attacks after the Alaska summit indicate Putin's intent to continue the war, providing a critical narrative that RF IO will attempt to counter (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: ASTRA and "Операция Z" amplify Polish FM Sikorski's statement that NATO is not fighting Russia, but Russia is fighting NATO through Ukraine, a strong framing of the conflict by a NATO member that RF IO will vigorously challenge (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: Colonelcassad's weekly SVO summary provides RF's official narrative of the conflict's progress, a key IO tool (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: TASS reporting on Israel's rejection of a UN GA resolution can be used by RF IO to portray UN ineffectiveness or Western bias (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: Colonelcassad's message about Telegram bot failures and "bot counter-offensives" indicates RF's ongoing struggle with, and awareness of, maintaining IO dominance in the online sphere (Confidence: MEDIUM). NEW: TASS shares a photo message of Pavel Durov's statement identifying Charlie Kirk's death as an "assault on free speech," reinforcing RF's strategy of leveraging US domestic events for anti-Western IO. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: Colonelcassad amplifies Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski's statement that NATO is not fighting Russia, but Russia is fighting NATO through Ukraine, providing a critical Western framing that RF IO will attempt to counter. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares a video celebrating Sergey Parchevsky, a boxing trainer and DPR People's Council deputy, focusing on his commitment to sports and community in Donbas amidst conflict, a form of internal morale-boosting propaganda. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "Janus Putkonen" (Finnish milblogger) shares multiple videos (memes) from Poland satirizing the "Russian drone attack," as well as a video of a downed commercial drone with "Терроризировать" (Terrorize) written on it. This indicates RF-aligned milbloggers are actively using humor and documented incidents to shape narratives around drone attacks and Ukrainian actions. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: TASS reports Polish FM Sikorski acknowledged some drones violating Polish airspace came from Ukraine, not solely Belarus. This is a significant development that RF IO will immediately leverage to shift blame for airspace violations and undermine the narrative of exclusive Russian aggression. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "Игорь Артамонов" shares video depicting civilian development projects, including school construction and kindergarten renovation. This represents local RF IO to project normalcy and development, particularly in regions that may have proximity to the conflict or receive support from the government. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "Басурин о главном" shares video of a Russian Ministry of Defense meeting discussing economical management principles and digitalization, featuring Shoigu and Belousov. This is a domestic IO effort to project efficiency and modernization within the RF military. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "РБК-Україна" reports a NATO general states "Operation Eastern Guardian" does not include integration with Ukrainian air defense, which RF IO could leverage to highlight perceived limitations of NATO support for Ukraine. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • UAF Counter-Narratives (HIGH CONFIDENCE): UAF and allied media are countering RF narratives by: highlighting successful UAF operations (e.g., HUR naval strike, bridge destruction, drone interceptions, 890 RF personnel losses, deep strikes on RF territory, successful targeting of RF armored vehicles and logistics, confirming RF "motorcycle assaults", showcasing new advanced UAVs, "Shahedoriz" project success, claiming liberation of Shakhove/Volodymyrivka, SBU counter-intelligence success, new rail line, alleged Transneft strike, alleged aircraft relocation to NATO airfields, Croatian M-84 tanks, successful drone hunter-killer operations, elimination of RF contract soldier Kuzmin, Primorsk oil shipment suspension, Kadiivka strike, Toretsk sniper ops, confirmed successful SSO trench assault, successful "SKY RUSORIZ" drone operations, targeting of FPV "Zhduny" drones, UAF '3rd Army Corps' operations, "Shkval" battalion offensive operation, STERNENKO's Bryansk deep strike, UAF MiG-29 strike on RF HQ); emphasizing continued international support (e.g., US aid, Swedish aid, Rheinmetall production, high-level diplomatic meetings, productive talks with Polish Gen Staff, British/Polish FM visits, Prince Harry's visit, Zelenskyy's First Ladies Summit, new UK/Japan/EU sanctions, German call for long-range weapons, US pressure on G7 for oil tariffs, EU sanctions extension, Danish FM visit, 375 million Euro integration program); exposing RF lies and disinformation (e.g., challenging Smolensk location, countering false claims about UAF drones, exposing RF propaganda videos, contradicting RF claims about Polish drone damage, strongly reacting to Trump's comments, with Polish FM Sikorski stating "This was not a mistake", countering RF narratives on Belgorod civilian casualties due to Pantsir booster); bolstering domestic and military morale (e.g., recognizing EW personnel, support for POW families, public solidarity, commemorating liberations, showcasing logistical support from civilian-military partnerships, celebrating individual valor like the DSHV soldier, humanitarian aid deliveries including body bags); framing RF actions as deliberate hybrid warfare (e.g., Zelenskyy on Polish drones); and emphasizing the human cost of the war due to RF aggression (e.g., Sumy security guard killed, residential destruction, graphic combat injury video, Sumy fatalities, residential areas, Bytytsia, graphic aftermath video, tragedy in Nikopol, drone attack on civilian vehicle in Kharkiv, Synelnykove district aviation munition threat) . UAF is actively engaging in diplomatic efforts to maintain and strengthen alliances and counter divisive narratives from Hungary and Slovakia. UAF milbloggers (e.g., STERNENKO) track RF personnel losses, reflecting internal expectations for combat effectiveness. The Office of the Prosecutor General highlighting internal legal accountability (Poltava prison torture trial, humanitarian aid car sales detention, ex-commander corruption investigation, Ukrainian MP fraud investigation) counters RF narratives about Ukrainian corruption. "Оперативний ЗСУ" criticizes Trump, reflecting frustration and an effort to manage narrative surrounding US support. The promotion of Prince Harry's visit is a key counter-narrative to RF attempts to portray Ukraine as isolated. "Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація" showcases President Zelenskyy at the First Ladies Summit, a clear UAF IO effort. UAF continues to document RF combat losses, including specific individuals like Andriy Kuzmin, to counter RF morale. UAF milbloggers (e.g., ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) immediately amplify successful deep strikes into RF territory (Leningrad Oblast). "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares images and videos of a UAF vehicle undergoing repair, demonstrating transparency and commitment to maintenance. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's neutral updates on air raid alerts maintain public trust and provide accurate information. RBC-Ukraine highlights new train routes to Europe as a positive development, showcasing European integration. UAF reports on the "pause" in negotiations, presenting it neutrally or with implicit criticism of RF. STERNENKO reports donating to "rusoriz," a term implying the destruction of Russians, reinforcing nationalist sentiment and support for the war effort. UAF General Staff promotes a new digital document management course for Army+, showcasing modernization efforts. UAF sources like ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS immediately amplify successful strikes on occupied territory (Kadiivka). UAF General Staff and Coordination Staff for POWs report on internal support mechanisms, reinforcing public trust and morale. RBC-Ukraine reports on a shootout in Lviv, suggesting transparency in reporting internal challenges. "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares content on "Day without booze," which could indicate a successful morale or health initiative within UAF. RBC-Ukraine reports a new state holiday, fostering national identity. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports on anti-corruption efforts concerning humanitarian aid, maintaining public trust. "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" reports high-level command visits, potentially boosting troop morale. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's video about a relocated art school in a bomb shelter showcases civilian resilience. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Staff for POWs) emphasizes continued support for military families and information dissemination, highlighting ongoing efforts to address the human dimension of the conflict on military families. Оперативний ЗСУ reporting on the Lviv shootout transparently manages internal security incidents. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА express gratitude for new UK sanctions, using diplomatic messaging to reinforce international support. "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" celebrating EW personnel contributes to military morale. "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" commemorating Oleksandr Dokukin fosters national unity and honors sacrifices. Оперативний ЗСУ amplifies Head of Bundestag Defense Committee Thomas Röwekamp stating Russian drones threatening NATO territory should be shot down over Ukraine, indicating a clear allied position. РБК-Україна reporting on young men leaving the country suggests UAF-aligned IO addressing a societal issue, potentially to galvanize action or support. RBC-Україна reports that Ukrainian specialists will train Poles to shoot down drones, but not in Ukraine, shows a positive cooperative effort which boosts morale. The Coordination Staff for POWs is meeting with families of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade (UAF) fighters, providing crucial support for families and maintaining morale within the armed forces. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing UAF '3rd Army Corps' operations and captured individuals, if verified and handled according to protocols, can be used for IO to demonstrate UAF combat effectiveness and adherence to Geneva Conventions. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА sharing video of a meeting with Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, discussing further support, highlights continued UAF diplomatic success and commitment to European integration. STERNENKO video of the UAF BAS Fenix unit working daily on Russian logistics in Donetsk Oblast, by showing active combat success, boosts morale. РБК-Україна reporting on the DBR investigation into MP Shevchenko demonstrates commitment to transparency and anti-corruption, which helps maintain public trust and morale. Олександр Вілкул's messages ("ЖИТТЯ ТРИВАЄ!" - Life Continues!) and images of civilian events actively contribute to positive public sentiment and resilience. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's regular operational information updates reinforce transparency and trust in leadership. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА sharing a video of President Zelenskyy meeting with Polish Vice Prime Minister – Minister of Foreign Affairs Radosław Sikorski, discussing drone attack on Poland, and expressing readiness to share experience and train Polish military, and build a joint defense system. Zelenskyy expresses gratitude for Polish support and emphasizes close neighbor relations. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the "Shkval" battalion of the "Skelya" regiment conducted a successful offensive operation on the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine launched an integration program for 375 million Euros, supported by Denmark, focusing on resilience, energy security, and green energy transition, indicating a strong international commitment to Ukraine's long-term stability and defense. РБК-Україна reports that a delegation of Polish military personnel will arrive in Ukraine next week to work with Ukrainian forces on counter-drone issues, confirming strengthening military cooperation and knowledge transfer. РБК-Україна reports Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha named expectations for the 19th package of European sanctions against Russia, focusing on financial infrastructure and oil exports, highlighting continued diplomatic readiness to impose economic pressure. Zelenskiy / Official and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, share a video of President Zelenskyy stating "Putin's goal is the occupation of all Ukraine... Russia's war machine will only stop when it runs out of fuel," demonstrating UAF leadership's clear understanding of the enemy's intent and commitment to resistance. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy jokingly compared Kellogg's to air defense, offering citizenship to the company, indicating a proactive and creative approach to seeking international support and investment. Zelenskiy / Official shares a video of a meeting with British Foreign Minister Yvette Cooper, thanking her for her first visit being to Ukraine, which reinforces the narrative of strong international support. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy states giving land to Putin to stop the war is not a solution, but a pause, unequivocally reinforcing Ukrainian resolve against territorial concessions. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Zelenskyy states that 1600 interceptor drones (or at least 500 with other weapons) are needed to destroy 800 Shahed UAVs, openly communicating critical defensive requirements, which can serve to galvanize further public and international support. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration shares a video depicting an outdoor youth event with Ukrainian flags and a focus on resilience and future prospects, serving as a positive IO piece. UAF is managing the "Резерв+" app limitation transparently to maintain public trust. NEW: "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" weekly summary video highlights significant enemy attacks but also showcases resilience through logistical support and community preparedness, which will likely boost local and national morale (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: РБК-Україна reporting on Foreign Minister Sybiha announcing exhumations of Ukrainian victims of the Volyn tragedy in Poland, by addressing sensitive historical issues, can help improve bilateral relations and public trust, indirectly supporting morale (Confidence: HIGH). NEW: "STERNENKO" shares drone footage indicating successful strikes by the 100th Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBr) against an RF tank, armored fighting vehicle (BBBM), and personnel. This provides positive UAF IO highlighting combat effectiveness. (Confidence: HIGH) NEW: "РБК-Україна" reports a NATO general states "Operation Eastern Guardian" does not include integration with Ukrainian air defense. UAF IO will likely frame this as a NATO clarification rather than a reduction in support, to maintain confidence. (Confidence: HIGH)

• Public sentiment and morale factors:

  • Ukraine (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Public sentiment remains generally resilient, bolstered by military successes (HUR naval strike, successful drone interceptions, 890 RF personnel losses, deep strikes, logistical support to the front, DSHV valor stories, new UAVs, claims of liberated