Situation Report

SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - 121333Z SEP 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (Confidence: HIGH)

RF forces maintain multi-axis pressure, with an emphasis on the Pokrovsk axis where urban combat continues in Muravka and Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). RF forces of the "Vostok" Grouping have "liberated" Sosnovka and Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, aiming to enhance encirclement of a UAF grouping in Velykomykhailivka. Combat is reported south of Stepnohirsk with active RF aviation support. On the Lyman axis, RF claims to be assaulting Zarechnoye and reports activity near Kolodyazi. Colonelcassad reports RF forces have established control over Kolodyazi and are advancing on the Krasny Liman direction. TASS further reports RF troops have "practically dislodged" UAF from Kirovsk on the Krasny Liman direction, with UAF suffering heavy losses, which, if true, would significantly consolidate RF control over this sector. Intense combat continues near Krasny Liman, DPR, with the RF 103rd Regiment advancing towards Konstantinovka, now reportedly 7 km from the city. On the Siverske direction, RF forces claim control of approximately 50% of Pereyizne and advances in the Kremensky forests, taking control of approximately 3 km of the administrative border. RF UAVs are establishing "fire control" over UAF logistical routes near Krasny Liman and Izium-Barvinkove, and claim control of 1.5 km of a supply route in Kupyansk. RF claims "liberation" of Zelenyi Hai and fighting for Torske, indicating sustained offensive operations on the Lyman direction. RF forces have "expelled the enemy from Katerynivka" and continue to advance in the Konstantinovka direction, near Kleban-Byk and Pleshcheyevka, maintaining pressure on this critical UAF defensive axis. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) reports RF forces are advancing towards Konstantinovka, breaking through enemy defenses near Predtechino and Pleshcheyevka, confirming continued pressure on the Konstantinovka axis. Offensive action near Chasiv Yar involves airborne units engaging enemy infantry. Рыбарь (RF milblogger) provides a tactical analysis video documenting RF offensive operations and territorial gains in the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd agglomeration area between 24 AUG and 10 SEP 25, confirming sustained pressure and advances. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" (UAF milblogger) claims Ukrainian Defense Forces (СОУ) have "cleared and liberated" the villages of Shakhove and Volodymyrivka on the Dobropillya direction. This, if verified, represents a UAF tactical success and potentially reverses some RF gains. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" (RF milblogger) projects the Special Military Operation (SVO) will conclude in 2027 with the capture of Odesa and Mykolaiv, indicating long-term RF strategic aspirations. TASS reports Russian forces have "practically dislodged" UAF from the settlement of Novomykolaivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, according to Russian security forces. This is a new and significant claim, indicating further RF advances and expansion of the Dnipropetrovsk salient. "Z комитет + карта СВО" shares multiple map images showing advances around Velykomykhailivka and Novoivanivka, reinforcing RF claims of continued pressure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Novopavlivka direction. DeepState map update indicates changes, requiring further analysis for specifics. "Два майора" (RF milblogger) and "Сливочный каприз" (RF milblogger) reinforce claims of RF capture of Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, providing video evidence of artillery strikes and claimed M-777 destruction, with "Vostok" Grouping involved. "Сливочный каприз" shares video showing drone footage of a settlement under artillery bombardment (likely Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk area, identified by caption 12.09.25 Красноармейска - Октябрьское(Шахово)), and now also Krasnoarmeysk - Vladimirovka (12.09.25). "Воин DV" (RF milblogger) shares drone footage of operators from the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, "Vostok" Grouping, engaged in active military activity targeting a dark-colored vehicle and what appears to be a motorcycle or smaller vehicle, followed by thermal imaging of multiple targets, explosions, and muzzle flashes, with individuals (likely soldiers) moving in the environment. This suggests active RF FPV drone operations and engagement of UAF light vehicles/personnel. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF milblogger) shares video depicting a coordinated assault on enemy trench positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction by SSO snipers, involving grenades and small arms fire in close-quarters combat, highlighting active UAF ground engagements. New video from БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows Ukrainian soldiers from the '3rd Army Corps' in a rural environment conducting tactical movements, RPG use, and interaction with captured individuals, indicating active offensive/clearing operations. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) also shows a video from Bryansk-Chernihiv direction where "border guards" are destroying UAF equipment, infantry, and positions, including mortar positions, a fuel station, and communications antenna. This indicates active RF operations against UAF on border areas.

GSU reports indicate a significant concentration of RF forces and 130 combat engagements over the past 24 hours on the Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka, and Shakhtarske directions, with UAF repelling numerous attacks. RF is attempting to advance near Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, and claims to have repelled a UAF counterattack on the left bank of the Vovcha River, occupying four technical buildings. RF Special Forces (14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, "Sida" detachment of AHMAT, "Anvar" detachment) are actively supporting ground assaults on the South Donetsk direction and conducting precision strikes against UAF artillery on the Sumy direction, with "Anvar" operating in buffer zones along the Kharkiv and Chernihiv borders. RF is reportedly bringing up reserves to Vovchansk. The Kherson-Mykolaiv highway is claimed to be under RF fire control. UAF forces successfully destroyed a bridge over the Siverskyi Donets river near Nova Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, Russia, using FPV drones and pre-planted mines, disrupting RF logistical movement. Widespread destruction in Vovchansk confirms heavy combat and significant damage. RF forces continue FPV drone operations targeting UAF logistics and personnel across multiple sectors. Drone footage indicates RF strikes on trenches, a command post, and a communications tower on the Rubtsovsk direction, with suggested electronic warfare activity against "STARLINK." RF forces are actively countering UAF attempts to regain Udachnoye, displaying a presence in previously contested structures. RF "Молния-2" UAVs reportedly struck a UAF temporary deployment point (PVD) in Sumy Oblast. RF UAV operators are disrupting UAF rotations in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF reports one civilian killed in Polohy Raion due to enemy attacks. Oleg Sinegubov, Governor of Kharkiv Oblast, reports 18 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were subjected to enemy attacks over the past day, confirming widespread and persistent RF pressure in the region. "Воин DV" (RF milblogger) shares thermal drone footage of 35th Army Special Forces (Vostok Grouping) targeting UAF personnel with FPV drones and grenade drops in the Polohy direction, indicating continued RF FPV drone effectiveness and localized ground pressure. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" (RF milblogger) shares video of army aviation operations in Kharkiv Oblast, Iziumskyi district, near Borovska Andriyivka, targeting areas in support of the 1st Tank Army's assault units, indicating concentrated RF air support for ground advances in this sector. "Народная милиция ДНР" shares video of RF 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (ORB) destroying UAF communications antenna/Starlink in a rural area, confirming continued RF counter-C2 efforts. Liveuamap Source reports on daily clashes across South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv), Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, and Kherson directions, with UAF repelling numerous attacks, underscoring the widespread nature of combat. Colonelcassad reports FPV drone operators from "Sparta" battalion, 51st Guards Combined Arms Army, destroyed two UAF UAV control points and a communication antenna near Dimitrov. This is a significant claim regarding counter-UAF C2. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that during raid actions by "Morok" assault battalion, 225th Separate Assault Regiment, in the rear of the RF 810th Brigade, remote mining by "Pentagon" pilots stopped an RF attempt to intercept UAF. This suggests effective UAF counter-interdiction and FPV drone support for ground operations. Oleg Sinegubov, Governor of Kharkiv Oblast, reports RF attacked a civilian vehicle with a drone in Shevchenkivska community, confirming continued RF targeting of civilian transport. MoD Russia reports 215th Combined Arms Army's motorised rifle regiment (Zapad Group of Forces) conducting drills with AGS-17 Plamya at a training ground in the SVO zone, indicating continued RF combat training and the importance of AGS-17. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) reports "Работайте братья" showing "our little birds" (drones) invading Hryshyno, suggesting active RF drone operations in that area (likely Pokrovsk axis). "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares a thermal drone video depicting a Russian soldier attempting to hide from a UAF drone operator (79th Airmobile Brigade), indicating active UAF drone hunter-killer operations and highlighting RF vulnerability. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shares thermal imaging drone footage of a convoy attacked on a dirt road, which the caption attributes to "Anvar" special forces hunting UAF equipment and militants, supporting the Sumy offensive. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of Ukrainian snipers eliminating six Russian assault troops on the Toretsk front, Donetsk Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF milblogger) shares video indicating RF is increasingly using FPV "Zhduny" (waiting/ambush drones) in combat, with the video showing a Ukrainian soldier engaging a stationary target.

Deep strikes persist on Ukrainian energy, industrial, and civilian infrastructure across 15 oblasts. Confirmed damage to the Sumy Oblast Administration (OVA) building, Ukrainian Government Headquarters in Kyiv, Sokil ice arena, Cabinet of Ministers building, and the Trypilska TPP. The death toll from the aviation bomb strike on Yarova, Donetsk Oblast, has risen to 25. Civilian casualties and damage from combined missile and drone attacks are confirmed in Vinnytsia (31 injured), Khmelnytskyi (sewing factory destroyed, 3 injured), Zhytomyr (1 killed, 5 injured), and Kramatorsk (central square, residential areas, market hit by drones). An energy object in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast has been hit by drones. Zaporizhzhia suffered a drone attack on a residential building, injuring two civilians, with four additional wounded reported from attacks on Prymorske and Zaporizhzhia. The 68-year-old man severely injured in a drone strike on Prymorske yesterday has died in hospital. Mykolaiv has experienced drone threats and explosions. Berdychiv (Zhytomyr Oblast) was hit by missile strikes. An enemy strike on an educational institution and the Holy Resurrection Cathedral in Sumy is confirmed. A "Shahed" drone hit one of Chernihiv's enterprises, causing a fire. Strikes on Nikopol region continued all day, affecting Nikopol, Marhanets, Pokrovsk, Myrove, and Chervonohryhorivka communities with artillery and drones. Acting Mayor of Sumy, Artem Kobzar, confirms two drone strikes on a non-residential building in Sumy, with casualty information being clarified. RBC-Ukraine reports RF struck a "promyslova zona" (industrial zone) on the outskirts of Sumy with drones. Explosions and a significant fire are reported at an oil depot in Smolensk Oblast and Primorsk port in Leningrad Oblast, attributed to UAF drone attacks. RBC-Ukraine reports an update, confirming one security guard killed under the rubble in Sumy. RBC-Ukraine reports RF launched missiles at Sumy Oblast, causing fatalities and destruction in residential areas, confirming continued RF missile targeting of civilian populations. RBC-Ukraine reports 2 people killed and 5 houses destroyed in a village in Sumy Oblast due to RF strike. ASTRA reports three people killed after a Russian attack in Sumy Oblast, as confirmed by local authorities. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF milblogger) reports two people killed and five injured in the village of Bytytsia, Sumy Oblast, as a result of a missile strike, confirming the ASTRA report and specifying the location. STERNENKO (UAF milblogger) and Sumy Oblast Military Administration (OVA) confirm one person killed in Sumy due to RF drone strike this morning. "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" reports "Another tragedy in Nikopol region, caused by enemy terror." The accompanying images, however, do not show military targets or direct damage, but rather a neglected civilian vehicle. This implies an ongoing, if less severe, impact on civilian life from RF actions, though the immediate assessment of the photos indicates no direct military significance. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares video of an alleged UAV strike on a Transneft oil pumping station "Vtorovo" in Vladimir Oblast, Russia, if verified, this represents a significant expansion of UAF deep strike range and target type. Colonelcassad reports FAB guided aerial bomb strikes on UAF positions in Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, indicating continued RF use of KABs on rear areas. TASS reports 1 killed, 6 wounded in Kherson Oblast due to UAF shelling, which RF will use for IO. ASTRA reports the woman killed in Belgorod this morning died from the impact of a "Pantsir" air defense missile booster, confirming RF air defense malfunction/collateral damage and contradicting earlier RF claims. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports an "explosive morning" in Leningrad Oblast, with videos of explosions, reinforcing previous UAF deep strike claims. Colonelcassad provides a "chronicle of strikes on Ukraine" for 11-12 September, indicating ongoing RF analysis and reporting of its own strike activities. "Alex Parker Returns" shares video of an alleged strike on a fuel object in Vladimir Oblast, further supporting the claim of a UAF deep strike on a Transneft oil pumping station and commenting on the lack of RF air defense. "Север.Реалии" reports that the woman killed in Belgorod was killed by a "Pantsir" air defense missile booster, reaffirming the ASTRA report. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's video highlights restoration work on energy facilities, construction of protective structures for transformers, and winter preparations in Zaporizhzhia, following enemy attacks. TASS reports a UAF drone attacked the Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant, hitting ancillary facilities and breaking several windows, but not affecting safety. Colonelcassad reports a UAF drone attack on the Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) and "Военкор Котенок" also amplify the claim of UAF attacking the Smolensk NPP, framing it as "nuclear terrorism." ASTRA, citing SBU sources, confirms the strike on Primorsk oil loading port. Росатом (RF State Nuclear Energy Corporation) reports no damage to critical infrastructure at the Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant, only minor damage to a fence and an administrative building from a Ukrainian drone. This contradicts previous reports of ancillary facilities being hit, reducing the scope of potential damage and RF's previous claims of "nuclear terrorism" framing. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UAF milblogger) provides an analysis of the alleged UAF UAV strike on the Transneft oil pumping station "Vtorovo," concluding that a "Lyutyy" UAV hit a technological overpass with pipelines, signal, and power cables. This provides specific BDA and target information, increasing the confidence in the success and impact of the strike.

Reports indicate at least eight explosions in occupied Donetsk, with TASS claiming UAF missile attacks repelled. Mash on Donbas reports power outages in Kyivskyi district of Donetsk and damaged windows in a traumatology hospital and nearby residential buildings, with a new video claiming a multi-apartment building in Donetsk was hit, "presumably by NATO MLRS." UAF FPV drones reportedly attacked a civilian vehicle near Polyana, Starodubsky Municipal District, Belgorod Oblast, Russia. ASTRA reports 6 people were injured in attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Belgorod Oblast, with a Pyaterochka supermarket among the affected targets. An ammunition depot in occupied Luhansk is also reported to be exploding due to UAF drone strikes. An attack by over 30 UAVs was repelled in three municipalities of Rostov Oblast, causing damage to a private house and two cars, but no casualties. A massive drone attack was launched on Leningrad Oblast overnight, with a fire reported on a vessel in Primorsk port, which has since been extinguished. ASTRA reports a fire on a pumping station in Primorsk was also extinguished, without casualties. TASS reports one person killed and 24 injured over two days in Belgorod Oblast from UAF attacks. Russian MoD claims to have shot down 221 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions overnight, with 9 of them over the Moscow region. Russian Governor Gladkov (Belgorod Oblast) reports 1 killed, 24 injured in Belgorod Oblast over two days from UAF attacks. Bryansk Oblast Governor reports UAF strikes on a passenger minibus, injuring 5 people, including 2 "Bars-Bryansk" fighters. WarGonzo further clarifies seven people wounded in a mass drone attack on Bryansk Oblast. Mash on Donbas reports a large traffic jam towards Khartsyzk due to an accident, with a military-style truck present, potentially indicating local logistical disruption or increased security measures for RF forces. Поддубный (RF milblogger) reports two people killed in Belgorod Oblast due to UAF drone attacks over the past three days, specifically mentioning a woman killed this morning in Belgorod city, and overall 24 injured, reiterating and amplifying previous reports of civilian casualties. ASTRA reports the mayor of Belgorod confirms a woman killed by a UAF strike in Belgorod. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (UAF milblogger) shares graphic video footage depicting the aftermath of what appears to be an artillery strike in a rural area, showing multiple deceased and dismembered individuals. The context implies high-casualty combat or indiscriminate targeting of personnel, further underscoring the brutality of the conflict. RBC-Ukraine reports that SBU drones have hit the Primorsk port, leading to suspension of oil shipments. This is a significant claim regarding the impact on RF energy exports. Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF milblogger) reports a shootout with two fatalities occurred in an auto service office in Lviv Oblast, confirming an internal security incident. Басурин о главном (RF milblogger) shares a map depicting alleged Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian regions outside the SVO zone, claiming "terrorist war against civilians." Maria Zakharova (RF MFA spokesperson) confirms RF's narrative of Ukrainian "terrorist war" against Russian civilians, citing specific incidents in Belgorod, Bryansk, Moscow, and Voronezh regions, as well as alleged shelling in DPR/LPR.

UAV activity remains extremely high. UAF Air Force reports 62 of 66 enemy UAV targets were shot down/suppressed overnight. Groups of enemy UAVs are entering southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast from Temporarily Occupied Territories (TOT), course - north/northwest, and additional KABs are launched on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. RF claims destruction of 225 Ukrainian UAVs, one Neptune guided missile, and three HIMARS MLRS rockets over the past day. RF reconnaissance UAVs are active in the Black Sea towards Odesa and in Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts. RF drones are confirmed active across central, western, and northern Ukraine. UAF Air Force reports guided aerial bombs launched on Donetsk Oblast and Sumy Oblast. A RF kamikaze drone "Upyr" was reported engaging a UAF interceptor drone near Prykolotne, Kharkiv. UAF 'Lazar' unit utilized FPV drones to destroy a bridge near Nova Tavolzhanka. A Ukrainian "Yozhka" drone was reportedly shot down near Lyman. Reconnaissance UAVs are reported in central Chernihiv Oblast. A captured Ukrainian reconnaissance drone ("Shark") was showcased, claimed to be destroyed by RF "Fever" fighters. UAF thermal imaging drone video shows a series of artillery strikes impacting Russian military positions in Kharkiv direction. RF drone footage showcases identification and engagement of various enemy assets including a pickup truck, a Leopard-1 tank, artillery, an unknown vehicle, and an 'BABA-YAGA' drone. UAF General Staff reports RF combat losses over the last 24 hours include 890 personnel. UAF General Staff reports 890 RF personnel eliminated over the past 24 hours (Sept 11-12). UAF General Staff provides a tactical map analysis of enemy failed attempts to advance. RF milblogger Colonelcassad presents video of FPV drone operations targeting UAF transport in forest belts of Chernihiv Oblast. Ukrainian Defense Forces (DSHV) share video of RF "motorcycle assaults," depicting both RF tactics and UAF counter-engagement. UAF Air Force reports 33 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed, indicating continued air defense effectiveness against persistent RF drone attacks. RBC-Ukraine reports RF launched 40 drones overnight, including 20 Shaheds, with 33 shot down. RF milblogger Colonelcassad presents video evidence of RF snipers successfully downing Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" heavy strike drones on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. UAF 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" shares video of new advanced UAVs being deployed. Colonelcassad reports 221 Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted and destroyed by RF air defense overnight. This is a significant claim, almost matching the previous RF MOD claim. ASTRA reports the Ukrainian Air Force states Russia attacked with 40 drones overnight. UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity in northern Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, indicating continued ISR pressure on the northern border. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports air strike warnings for Zaporizhzhia, indicating continued aerial threat. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares multiple videos depicting night-time explosions and missile trails, including an alleged UAV strike on Primorsk Port and a significant explosion in an urban/industrial area, reinforcing UAF deep strike claims. "Повітряні Сиили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports new reconnaissance UAV activity on the north of Chernihiv and east of Sumy Oblasts, indicating persistent RF ISR. Kotsnews reports RF is testing a "heavy drone evading EW," potentially indicating new RF drone development. "Два майора" shares an image of an alleged Ukrainian drone payload, implying UAF drone attacks. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports no information on destruction or casualties at 101, 102, 103, regarding current air raid activity in Zaporizhzhia. This confirms ongoing vigilance but no confirmed impact yet. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shares video titled "Работайте братья" depicting RF drone operations, indicating active deployment of UAVs. Kotsnews shares drone footage of an artillery impact, showing a soldier moving through smoky terrain, underscoring ongoing combat. "Два майора" shares video of a Russian exhibition of UAVs and counter-drone technologies ("Дронница"), suggesting a significant investment in developing drone capabilities. MoD Russia reports that from 6 to 12 September, RF conducted one massive and six group strikes against Ukrainian defense industry, transport, and energy infrastructure, military airfields, and depots. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares new video footage from a drone's perspective, showing active combat operations with explosions and destruction of military vehicles in wooded and open areas, indicating continued RF drone surveillance and targeting. STERNENKO (UAF milblogger) reports 5 more enemy UAVs shot down, sharing drone footage of a small, white, fixed-wing UAV ("SKY RUSORIZ") flying over a rural area, indicating ongoing UAF counter-UAV efforts and potential fundraising for this project.

Ukrainian HUR (Main Intelligence Directorate) units successfully struck and disabled an RF Black Sea Fleet vessel (Project MPSV07) near Novorossiysk. Russian channels are circulating video of a missile attack on artillery depots of RF's "Dnipro" Grouping of Forces located in Sonyachna Dolyna near Sudak in occupied Crimea. Ukrainian "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares multiple videos and text suggesting successful UAF drone attacks causing fires and explosions in Smolensk and Leningrad Oblasts, including a LUKOIL facility and Primorsk. The 46th Separate Airmobile Podilsky Brigade of the UAF DSHV shares photos celebrating a soldier who "burned 16 tanks and returned every time after being wounded," an internal UAF morale-boosting message. Colonelcassad shares video claiming an optical fiber FPV drone "VT-40" destroyed a storage site of 155mm M203A1 propelling charges, with a stated range of 30km. This, if verified, demonstrates effective RF counter-battery intelligence and drone-based targeting of UAF artillery logistics. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" and TASS report new batches of BMP-3s with enhanced protection kits and BMD-2s (after overhaul and modernization) have been delivered to RF troops, indicating sustained military production and improved armored vehicle capabilities. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) provides a series of photos under the caption "#Филия," which are tactical map screenshots of the Novopavlovsk direction. These images appear to depict Russian advances and territorial control in this area, indicating ongoing offensive operations or consolidation of gains, though the specific details of the map legend and symbols are not fully discernable without further context. "Воин DV" (RF milblogger) provides video footage claiming the "liberation" of Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by "Vostok" Grouping, with supporting drone footage of artillery strikes and claimed M-777 destruction. TASS provides video of Northern Fleet deployments for "West-2025" exercises, showcasing frigates, destroyers, and submarines, highlighting large-scale naval activity. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shares video of alleged liberation of Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by RF MOD, reinforcing Colonelcassad's claim. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the 141st Mechanized Brigade has received Croatian M-84 tanks, indicating continued Western military aid and UAF modernization. TASS reports the Pacific Fleet has started planned exercises with nuclear submarines and Bastion coastal missile systems, indicating further large-scale RF naval exercises. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares video of a military chaplain interacting with soldiers, offering spiritual support in combat zones, indicating efforts to boost morale through religious means. MoD Russia shares video of Northern Fleet forces deployed in near-shore and off-shore maritime zones for Zapad 2025, confirming naval component of the exercises. "Сливочный каприз" shares charts indicating the "Pace of offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces in the SMO zone," claiming advances of up to 40 km² per day, providing RF's internal assessment of offensive tempo. Colonelcassad reports an ongoing criminal case against former head of RF Ministry of Defense military representation, Andrei Tyurin, for abuse of power in state defense orders. "Сливочный каприз" shares drone footage of a settlement under artillery bombardment (Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk area), confirming continued ground pressure. "Воин DV" comments on Ukraine's delayed admission of territorial losses, indicating RF's view of UAF's information control. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF milblogger) shares video showing armored personnel carriers (APCs) or infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) moving in formation through wooded and open terrain, an attack helicopter (Ka-52 or Mi-28) in flight, a Tu-160 strategic bomber on a runway, and naval operations with warships, a hovercraft, and a submarine, with the caption "Кадры начала учений "Запад-2025"", confirming the commencement of large-scale military exercises involving multiple RF service branches. "Два майора" (RF milblogger) shares a video featuring three Russian soldiers expressing gratitude for donations of an armored vehicle and batteries, suggesting direct support for their operations. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" (RF milblogger) makes a public appeal for donations for "desantniks" (airborne troops). Colonelcassad posts a video about a "Collection for the 4th auto column," showcasing the restoration and modification of a civilian vehicle (likely a Niva) with military-inspired paint and "Z" symbols, indicating ongoing volunteer efforts to supply vehicles for RF forces. "Воин DV" shares a video from the Zaporizhzhia direction featuring a soldier with the callsign "Kizovsky," showing the work of an evacuation group under fire, including destroyed military equipment and bodies of deceased soldiers, with a Turkish self-loading rifle (AKdal MKA-1919) identified in the footage. This highlights intense combat and ongoing efforts to retrieve casualties and equipment. "Старше Эдды" shares a video titled "Svoi. Douglas — Cortes: on the work of reactive artillery and loyalty to the Russian army," which likely features RF reactive artillery in action and promotes loyalty narratives.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (Confidence: HIGH)

Conditions remained generally clear and favorable for air operations, including missile and UAV strikes across most of Ukraine. Localized heavy rainfall caused significant flooding in Kyiv. Expected thunderstorms in Kharkiv could temporarily impact local air operations. Storm weather is reported in Donetsk. RF tactical aviation is actively launching KABs on Sumy, Donetsk, and northern Kharkiv Oblasts. A ballistic missile threat from the northeast has been reported and subsequently lifted for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reconnaissance UAVs are active in the Black Sea towards Odesa and in Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts. RF drones are confirmed active across central, western, and northern Ukraine. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is under missile threat, with drone attacks confirmed on Synelnykove. A nationwide air raid alert was active due to the launch of an RF MiG-31K, a carrier of the "Kinzhal" aeroballistic missile, which was subsequently lifted. Fields and dry grass caught fire on the outskirts of Yenakiieve, potentially impacting visibility. Over 201 hectares of Kharkiv Oblast territory demined in a week. Krasnodar airport has reopened for civilian flights for the first time since the start of the war, indicating an improving logistical environment in southern RF. A Mi-8 helicopter made a hard landing in Kaliningrad due to bad weather. Poland has closed its border with Belarus, with military personnel deploying barricades and concertina wire. Air defense forces are active against UAVs over the southwestern part of Leningrad Oblast, and Pulkovo airport has implemented a "Carpet" plan (airspace closure). Enemy UAVs are detected in eastern Sumy Oblast, moving west. Additional UAVs heading towards Moscow have been destroyed. Pulkovo airport has warned of possible schedule adjustments. Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation are reported in Sumy Oblast. Enemy strike UAVs are detected in the Kakhovka region (Kherson Oblast), moving towards Mykolaiv Oblast. Over 20 UAVs have been destroyed over Leningrad Oblast, with debris fall recorded in Tosno. Enemy drones are approaching Kharkiv from the east. Air defense is active in Kyiv Oblast. Restrictions have been imposed in the airports of Ivanovo, Pskov, Yaroslavl, and St. Petersburg overnight. Enemy UAVs are detected in the northeastern part of Sumy Oblast. An explosion has been heard in Sumy, followed by several more explosions amidst drone activity. A ballistic missile threat from Kursk Oblast has been issued and subsequently lifted. The fire on a vessel in Primorsk port has been extinguished. "West-2025" joint exercises of Belarusian and Russian armed forces have started on training grounds in both countries and in the Baltic and Barents Seas. TASS reports "Pobeda" airline is adjusting flight schedules due to temporary restrictions at Pulkovo airport and Leningrad Oblast airspace, with some flights delayed. ASTRA reports 28 flights delayed, 13 cancelled, and 11 diverted at Pulkovo airport due to drone attacks. UAF Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by RF tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. TASS reports that flight restrictions have been lifted at the airports of Ivanovo and Yaroslavl. TASS reports that flight service for departures has resumed at Pulkovo airport. UAF Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by RF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast, indicating persistent air support for ground operations. "Север.Реалии" reports Pskov Governor has moved information about drone attacks to the state messenger Max, possibly indicating increased sensitivity or control over public information regarding deep strikes. "Новости Москвы" reports geomagetic disturbances from a new coronal hole may last up to 6 days, which could potentially impact satellite communications or other electronic systems. "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" issues an air raid alert and "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports KABs on Zaporizhzhia, indicating continued RF use of guided aerial bombs in the area, likely for close air support of ground operations. TASS reports earthquake in Bishkek, likely unrelated to conflict, but can serve as a distraction for RF population. TASS reports Pskov airport restrictions have been lifted, indicating a return to normalcy for this civilian air hub, previously impacted by UAF deep strikes. TASS and Новости Москвы report a record dry start to autumn in Moscow, which could impact agriculture and increase fire risk, but has no direct military significance at this time. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports the air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia city has been lifted, but missile danger for the region persists, indicating localized and ongoing threats. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports the air raid alert has been fully lifted, indicating a temporary cessation of immediate aerial threats in the region. UAF Air Force reports enemy attack UAVs heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast from northern Kherson Oblast. TASS reports the Northern Fleet has deployed forces in the Arctic Ocean for "West-2025" exercises. Germany's MFA summoned the Russian ambassador regarding the drone incident in Poland, highlighting the diplomatic severity of these events. Mash on Donbas reports explosions over Donetsk and active air defense, indicating continued aerial threats in the occupied territories. TASS reports Aeroflot has opened ticket sales for direct flights from Krasnodar for international programs, confirming further normalization of air travel from this southern RF hub.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (Confidence: HIGH)

• RF:
  • Ground Forces: RF continues its multi-axis ground offensive, notably on the Pokrovsk axis (Chynyshyn, Muravka, Krasnoarmeysk), Novopavlivka, Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, South Slobozhansky (Vovchansk), and Kupyansk directions. The "Vostok" Grouping has liberated Sosnovka and Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, aiming to encircle UAF in Velykomykhailivka. Specific units involved include marine infantry, "Somali" battalion elements, and the RF 103rd Regiment. "Otvazhnye" units are heavily engaged near Pokrovsk. TASS reports RF forces have taken control of approximately 50% of Pereyizne, south of Siversk, DPR. RF has introduced 'Kur'er' robotic complexes and "Veterok" fiber-optic drones. "Anvar" special forces are active near the Sumy/Chernihiv border, clearing buffer zones. Rosgvardia has been armed with tank and anti-tank guns, self-propelled artillery, and MLRS, and has executed over 60,000 fire and tactical missions. The RF 238th Brigade claims to have destroyed a UAF UAV control post in Berestok. "Terminator" tank support fighting vehicles are training in a rear area. Rosgvardia has recreated tank units and significantly increased artillery firepower. Assault groups of the 20th Army are undergoing combat training. "West-AHMAT" battalion (RF MoD) and Russian Internal Affairs Ministry (OMVD) personnel, along with the RF 128th Brigade, are engaged in combat operations in the Vovchansk area, Kharkiv direction, using FPV drones. RF forces have "expelled the enemy from Katerynivka" and continue to advance in the Konstantinovka direction, near Kleban-Byk and Pleshcheyevka, and on the Borovskoe direction. Combat is confirmed in the vicinity of Konstantinovka. Airborne units are engaging enemy infantry near Chasiv Yar. RF forces are operating on the Rubtsovsk direction, conducting strikes on trenches, a command post, and a communications tower, with suggested electronic warfare activity. RF forces are actively engaging UAF attempts to regain Udachnoye, utilizing drone-guided strikes. "Молния-2" UAVs from Tula paratroopers reportedly hit a UAF temporary deployment point (PVD) in Sumy Oblast. The "Pyatnashka" International Brigade is active in reconnaissance and artillery roles. FPV drone crews of the RF 68th Motorized Rifle Division are conducting ambushes on UAF transport in Kharkiv Oblast. RF UAV operators are disrupting UAF rotations in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The RF 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (Vostok Grouping) is conducting reconnaissance operations in the South Donetsk direction. The 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment is reported to be advancing on the Sumy front, near Yunakovka, utilizing drones for reconnaissance and targeting. Colonelcassad claims RF forces have established control over Kolodyazi and are advancing on the Krasny Liman direction. TASS reports RF troops have "practically dislodged" UAF from Kirovsk on the Krasny Liman direction, indicating a potential significant territorial gain. RF airborne assault troops (DSHV) are reportedly using motorcycles in combat, as depicted in Ukrainian intelligence video. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) reports RF forces are advancing towards Konstantinovka, breaking through enemy defenses near Predtechino and Pleshcheyevka. "Воин DV" (RF milblogger) shares thermal drone footage of 35th Army Special Forces (Vostok Grouping) targeting UAF personnel with FPV drones and grenade drops in the Polohy direction. WarGonzo (RF milblogger) provides a tactical analysis of the Sumy Front, indicating sustained RF interest and potential for further advances. RF snipers are actively engaged in counter-drone operations, specifically against UAF "Baba Yaga" heavy strike drones on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. Colonelcassad shares video claiming an optical fiber FPV drone "VT-40" destroyed a storage site of 155mm M203A1 propelling charges, indicating RF capability for drone-based precision strikes on UAF artillery logistics. Рыбарь (RF milblogger) reports a "breakthrough to New Shakhovo and Myrnograd," providing a map-based analysis of RF offensive operations in the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd agglomeration area, visually confirming advances between 24 AUG and 10 SEP 25. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" and TASS report new batches of BMP-3s with enhanced protection kits and BMD-2s (after overhaul and modernization) have been delivered to RF troops, indicating sustained military production and improved armored vehicle capabilities. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" shares video of army aviation operations in Kharkiv Oblast, Iziumskyi district, near Borovska Andriyivka, with supporting caption indicating it's in the direction of the 1st Tank Army's assault units, confirming concentrated air support for ground advances. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" (RF milblogger) posts a video of military personnel deploying barricades and concertina wire on a wet asphalt road at night, captioning "Poland closed border with Belarus indefinitely", confirming RF awareness and commentary on NATO defensive measures. TASS reports Russian forces have "practically dislodged" UAF from Novomykolaivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This, if confirmed, signals further RF commitment to expanding their Dnipropetrovsk salient. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) provides tactical maps of the Novopavlovsk direction, indicating ongoing RF offensive operations or consolidation of territorial control in this sector. "Воин DV" provides video evidence of the "liberation" of Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by "Vostok" Grouping, with visuals of drone reconnaissance and artillery strikes, and claimed destruction of an M-777 howitzer. "Народная милиция ДНР" shares drone footage of the RF 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (ORB) destroying a UAF communications antenna/Starlink in a rural area, confirming continued RF counter-C2 efforts. "Z комитет + карта СВО" shares several tactical maps indicating advances in the Velykomykhailivka and Novoivanivka areas, further supporting RF claims of ongoing pressure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Novopavlivka. Liveuamap Source reports on daily clashes across a wide front, detailing settlements near Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, and Kherson where UAF repelled attacks. Colonelcassad reports FPV drone operators from "Sparta" battalion, 51st Guards Combined Arms Army, destroyed two UAF UAV control points and a communication antenna near Dimitrov, indicating active RF counter-UAV and counter-C2 operations. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shares photo of claimed liberation of Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by RF MOD, reinforcing Colonelcassad's claim. MoD Russia reports 215th Combined Arms Army's motorised rifle regiment (Zapad Group of Forces) conducting drills with AGS-17 Plamya at a training ground in the SVO zone, confirming continued combat training. "Два майора" (RF milblogger) and "Сливочный каприз" (RF milblogger) further support claims of RF capture of Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetropvsk Oblast, with map and video evidence, including drone reconnaissance, artillery strikes, and claimed M-777 howitzer destruction. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) reports "Работайте братья" showing "our little birds" (drones) invading Hryshyno, suggesting active RF drone operations in that area (likely Pokrovsk axis). "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares a thermal drone video depicting a Russian soldier attempting to hide from a UAF drone operator (79th Airmobile Brigade), indicating active UAF drone hunter-killer operations and highlighting RF vulnerability. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shares thermal imaging drone footage attributed to "Anvar" special forces, showing an attack on a convoy, supporting offensive operations on the Sumy axis. "Сливочный каприз" provides charts showing "Pace of offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces in the SMO zone," claiming daily advances, indicating RF's internal assessment of operational tempo and sustained offensive. Colonelcassad, "Два майора," and "Alex Parker Returns" all report on the detention of an individual in Dimitrovgrad for allegedly plotting to assassinate Vladimir Solovyev, framed as an operation by Ukrainian special services, indicating RF counter-intelligence efforts and its immediate use for IO. MoD Russia reports on the progress of the special military operation from 6-12 September, claiming strikes on Ukrainian defense industry, transport, energy, military airfields, and depots. "Сливочный каприз" shares drone footage of a settlement under artillery bombardment (Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk area), confirming continued ground pressure. "Воин DV" comments on Ukraine's delayed admission of territorial losses, indicating RF's view of UAF's information control. "Воин DV" shares drone footage of operators from the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, "Vostok" Grouping, actively engaging targets (vehicle, motorcycle, personnel) using FPV drones, indicating continued effective localized ground pressure and reconnaissance. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF milblogger) shares video of military vehicles (APCs/IFVs), attack helicopters, and a strategic bomber participating in "West-2025" exercises, confirming large-scale, multi-branch military drills are underway. "Два майора" share a video of three Russian soldiers expressing gratitude for donations (armored vehicle, batteries), confirming reliance on public support. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" makes a public appeal for donations for "desantniks" (airborne troops). Colonelcassad posts a video about a "Collection for the 4th auto column," showcasing the restoration and customization of a Niva-like vehicle with military markings, further indicating volunteer support for RF ground forces. "Воин DV" shares a video from the Zaporizhzhia direction featuring a soldier with the callsign "Kizovsky," showing the work of an evacuation group under fire, including destroyed military equipment and bodies of deceased soldiers, with a Turkish self-loading rifle (AKdal MKA-1919) identified in the footage. This highlights intense combat and ongoing efforts to retrieve casualties and equipment. "Старше Эдды" shares a video titled "Svoi. Douglas — Cortes: on the work of reactive artillery and loyalty to the Russian army," which likely features RF reactive artillery in action and promotes loyalty narratives. New information from "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shows Russian border guards destroying UAF equipment, infantry, and positions on the Bryansk-Chernihiv direction. Colonelcassad reports 38 US M1A2 Abrams tanks have arrived in Poland, an important NATO defensive measure.
  • Air/Missile Forces: RF executed a UAV-centric air attack, with UAF Air Force reporting a 94% interception rate (62 of 66 UAVs) from the previous wave. UAF Air Force reports 33 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed in the latest wave (from 40 launched, 20 Shaheds, per RBC-Ukraine). Groups of enemy UAVs are entering southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast from TOT, course - north/northwest. Launches of KABs on Sumy, Northern Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts. TASS reports 5 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over Belgorod Oblast. RF Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs on eastern Kharkiv Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, and Sumy Oblast. A RF kamikaze drone "Upyr" engaged a UAF interceptor drone near Prykolotne, Kharkiv. A Ukrainian "Yozhka" drone was reportedly shot down near Lyman. Reconnaissance UAVs are reported in central Chernihiv Oblast and south of Zaporizhzhia. RF drone footage showcases identification and engagement of various enemy assets including a 'BABA-YAGA' drone. A ballistic missile threat from the north was issued. Enemy UAVs are moving towards Zaporizhzhia city from the east. RF Air Defense Forces destroyed five enemy UAVs heading towards Moscow, with a total of seven destroyed. Air defense forces are active against UAVs over the southwestern part of Leningrad Oblast, and Pulkovo airport has implemented a "Carpet" plan (airspace closure). Enemy UAVs are detected in eastern Sumy Oblast, moving west. Two more UAVs heading towards Moscow have been destroyed. Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation are reported in Sumy Oblast. Enemy strike UAVs are detected in the Kakhovka region (Kherson Oblast), moving towards Mykolaiv Oblast. Over 20 UAVs have been destroyed over Leningrad Oblast. Enemy drones are approaching Kharkiv from the east. An enemy UAV has been detected in Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorod and Bucha districts), moving west, with PVO active. Restrictions have been imposed in the airports of Ivanovo, Pskov, Yaroslavl, and St. Petersburg overnight. Enemy UAVs are detected in the northeastern part of Sumy Oblast, followed by explosions in Sumy. A ballistic missile threat from Kursk Oblast has been issued. Over 30 UAVs were repelled in three municipalities of Rostov Oblast. A massive drone attack was launched on Leningrad Oblast overnight, with a fire reported on a vessel in Primorsk port. Drone footage from an Orlan-10 variant shows identification and targeting of Ukrainian military positions/vehicles on the Zaporizhzhia front, followed by a missile launch. The Russian MoD claims to have shot down 221 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions overnight, with 9 of them over the Moscow region. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs on the north of Chernihiv Oblast, north of Kharkiv Oblast, and east of Sumy Oblast. Fighterbomber (RF milblogger) shares video from a helicopter with a Gatling gun flying low over water, indicating active RF tactical aviation operations, potentially in coastal or riverine areas. TASS reports RF Southern Grouping of Forces destroyed three UAF UAV control posts and a Starlink antenna on the Siversk direction, demonstrating effective counter-C2 and counter-communications capabilities. Colonelcassad and Военкор Котенок report the Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have shot down 221 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity in northern Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, indicating continued ISR pressure on the northern border. UAF Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by RF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports air strike warnings for Zaporizhzhia and KABs on Zaporizhzhia, confirming active RF aerial strike operations in this key southern sector, likely in support of ground forces. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares video of an alleged missile trail and explosion at night, and other videos of night-time fires and explosions in urban/industrial areas, reinforcing the visual evidence of deep strikes. "Повітряні Сиили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports new reconnaissance UAV activity on the north of Chernihiv and east of Sumy Oblasts. Kotsnews reports RF is testing a "heavy drone evading EW," potentially indicating new RF drone development. "Два майора" shares an image of an alleged Ukrainian drone payload, implying UAF drone attacks. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports no information on destruction or casualties at 101, 102, 103, regarding current air raid activity in Zaporizhzhia. This confirms ongoing vigilance but no confirmed impact yet. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shares video titled "Работайте братья" depicting RF drone operations, indicating active deployment of UAVs. Kotsnews shares drone footage of an artillery impact, showing a soldier moving through smoky terrain, underscoring ongoing combat. "Два майора" shares video of a Russian exhibition of UAVs and counter-drone technologies ("Дронница"), suggesting a significant investment in developing drone capabilities. TASS reports a UAF drone attacked the Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant, hitting ancillary facilities and breaking several windows, but not affecting safety. Colonelcassad, "Операция Z", and "Военкор Котенок" amplify the claim of a UAF drone attack on the Smolensk NPP. Росатом (RF State Nuclear Energy Corporation) reports no damage to critical infrastructure at the Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant, only minor damage to a fence and an administrative building from a Ukrainian drone. STERNENKO (UAF milblogger) reports 5 more enemy UAVs shot down. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" issues an air raid alert for Cherkasy Oblast, warning of missile danger. TASS reports RF Central Bank lowered the key rate to 16%, and also considered maintaining it at 18%, indicating ongoing economic policy adjustments. TASS reports Nabiullina (RF Central Bank head) believes higher rates are working and inflation is declining, but uncertainty remains. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports enemy UAVs heading southwest from northern Kherson Oblast. TASS reports Nabiullina does not expect a new surge in housing prices due to lower mortgage rates. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports KABs on Donetsk Oblast again, indicating persistent air support for ground operations. Mash on Donbas reports explosions over Donetsk and active air defense.
  • Naval Forces: USV attack on Novorossiysk confirmed, disabling an RF Black Sea Fleet vessel (Project MPSV07). "Операция Z" (RusVesna) reports a massive enemy attack on Leningrad Oblast, with a fire on a tanker and pumping station in Primorsk, with accompanying video footage. Sever.Realii also reports drones attacked Russia's largest oil loading port in Primorsk. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) and Janus Putkonen (Finnish milblogger) share similar videos showcasing naval assets, including frigates, hovercraft, and submarines, participating in "West-2025" exercises, indicating a demonstration of naval power projection. TASS provides video of Northern Fleet deployments for "West-2025" exercises, showcasing a range of naval assets including a Slava-class cruiser, a Udaloy-class destroyer, a Kilo-class submarine, and smaller patrol vessels operating in coastal waters, suggesting ongoing readiness and operational activity in strategic maritime areas. TASS reports the Pacific Fleet has started planned exercises with nuclear submarines and Bastion coastal missile systems, further confirming large-scale RF naval exercises. MoD Russia shares video of Northern Fleet forces deployed in near-shore and off-shore maritime zones for Zapad 2025, confirming naval component of the exercises. TASS reports the Northern Fleet has deployed forces in the Arctic Ocean for "West-2025" exercises. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF milblogger) shares video footage of naval operations (warships, hovercraft, submarine) as part of the "West-2025" exercises.
  • Information Warfare (IO): RF is actively pushing narratives to discredit Ukraine, sow discord among allies, leveraging various diplomatic and internal events (e.g., Zelenskyy's statements, Hungarian FM's accusations, US internal issues like the Charlie Kirk assassination). RF media denies deliberate drone incursions into Poland while milbloggers promote narratives questioning their origin. RF leverages statements on Germany's need to increase Bundeswehr strength to portray NATO as weak. RF promotes narratives on Slovakia rejecting Western troops in Ukraine. RF IO also focuses on internal morale-boosting and patriotism, such as the increased military personnel salaries and celebrating military education bodies. RF claims UAF units on the Serebryansk direction received direct orders to shoot at civilians. RF continues to use child-centric propaganda. RF continues to amplify civilian casualties in Belgorod and Bryansk Oblasts, blaming UAF for "barbaric crimes." TASS continues to circulate images and narratives about the Charlie Kirk assassination, suggesting UAF/Western involvement, for psychological influence. "Два майора" promote a religious procession in St. Petersburg, a domestic morale-boosting and patriotism-enhancing event. TASS attributes UAF "looting" in Krasny Liman to a preparation for withdrawal, a clear RF IO attempt to demoralize UAF and signal RF battlefield dominance. "Военкор Котенок" (RF milblogger) pushes a narrative of UAF repressing citizens who report "correct behavior" by RF soldiers in Kyiv Oblast, aiming to delegitimize Ukrainian authorities and promote a false image of RF forces. "Два майора" claim the house damaged in Poland by an alleged drone was previously damaged by a storm, attempting to discredit UAF actions and Polish/NATO claims. "Два майора" celebrate the birthday of Ella Pamfilova, Chair of RF Central Election Commission, reinforcing stability narratives. ТАСС amplifies a New York Times article arguing that Trump's reaction to the drone incident in Poland shows US detachment from European defense, further pushing narratives of Western disunity. Операция Z (RusVesna) circulates highly inflammatory and graphic content, alleging a "deadly clash with TCC" (Ukrainian Territorial Recruitment Centers) where a priest with a pistol attempted to decapitate military commissars with an axe, a clear attempt to demonize Ukrainian authorities and sow discord. ФСБ (Russian Federal Security Service) reports the detention in Klimovsk, Moscow region, of a Russian citizen who allegedly financed UAF and planned to join combat on the enemy side, an internal security measure likely leveraged for propaganda. Басурин о главном (RF milblogger) promotes a propaganda image about the "Admiral Kuznetsov" aircraft carrier making billions for Russia, a clear attempt at domestic morale-boosting and projecting naval strength despite the vessel's operational challenges. TASS promotes a "Moscow helps to vote" center on Pokrovka, which is likely part of internal election-related IO to encourage participation and project normalcy/stability. TASS reports a 14-year-old son of a Russian officer participating in the SVO was added to the Ukrainian "Myrotvorets" extremist website, which RF will use to demonstrate alleged Ukrainian extremism and target Russian military families for propaganda purposes. TASS reports a resident of Crimea was sentenced to 17 years for preparing a terrorist attack, which RF will leverage for internal security messaging and demonization of Ukrainian supporters. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) uses videos of Russian schoolchildren handling firearms and "FAKE" overlays to discredit Ukrainian claims about militarization of Russian youth, while simultaneously promoting patriotic education, demonstrating complex IO. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" projects the Special Military Operation (SVO) will conclude in 2027 with the capture of Odesa and Mykolaiv, indicating long-term RF strategic aspirations. "Воин DV" (RF milblogger) reports on upcoming US-South Korea nuclear exercises, which RF will use to frame NATO/US as aggressive. "Alex Parker Returns" shares another image of the Charlie Kirk assassination, reiterating the RF IO narrative. "Kotsnews" discusses a video regarding a boy on "Mirotvorets", claiming the original video was "fake" to discredit Ukrainian media/IO, demonstrating continued RF efforts to control narratives around youth militarization and alleged Ukrainian extremism. "Alex Parker Returns" shares a post regarding the sentencing of former Brazilian president Bolsonaro, leveraging it to highlight US pressure and push Brazil towards BRICS, furthering a narrative of anti-Western alliances. ASTRA reports 90 polling stations across Russia are named in honor of participants in the war with Ukraine, a clear RF IO effort to normalize and glorify the conflict within civilian life and promote military patriotism during elections. TASS publishes an interview with Rodion Miroshnik claiming Ukraine attacked border regions to disrupt Russia-US summit in Alaska, a clear IO attempt to blame UAF for cross-border strikes and frame UAF as disruptive to diplomacy. TASS claims Tatiana Kurtukova, singer of "Matushka," was added to Ukrainian "Myrotvorets" extremist website, another RF IO play to demonstrate alleged Ukrainian extremism and target cultural figures. "Басурин о главном" disseminates RT information on the mother of defector pilot Kuzminov, suggesting an ongoing RF effort to discredit defectors and their families. "Старше Эдды" shares a video and caption claiming a video of a boy on "Myrotvorets" was "fake," continuing RF efforts to control narratives around youth militarization and alleged Ukrainian extremism. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares a video and caption about Alla Pugacheva giving an interview to a "foreign agent," an IO attempt to discredit dissenting cultural figures. "Полиция Хабаровского края" shares a video celebrating a Russian TV program focused on law enforcement, projecting internal stability and competence. "Colonelcassad" claims former Pentagon aide Stephen Bryen stated fallen drones in Poland were under Ukrainian control, amplifying a narrative to shift blame. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shares a graphic claim that the father of a Ukrainian killed in the US was not allowed to leave Ukraine due to conscription age, another RF IO effort to demonize Ukrainian authorities and create sympathy for draft evaders. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares images and video commemorating a deceased project leader, aimed at internal morale and heroism narratives. "Z комитет + карта СВО" shares tactical maps of Velykomykhailivka and Novoivanivka to promote RF advances. "Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration" shares video of President Zelenskyy speaking at the Fifth Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen, emphasizing education and international solidarity, a UAF counter-IO effort. "Два майора" accuse Ukraine of issuing "another fake" and circulating it in social networks, specifically referencing a video about children learning to handle firearms, reinforcing RF's efforts to counter Ukrainian information. TASS quotes Rodion Miroshnik claiming the West supplies Ukraine with "inoperable Patriot air defenses," a clear IO attempt to discredit Western aid and boost RF confidence. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" amplifies former Pentagon aide Stephen Bryen's claim that fallen drones in Poland were under Ukrainian control, further shifting blame away from RF. "Два майора" post a memorial for a project leader of "Archangel Spetsnaz," another internal morale-boosting and heroism narrative. TASS quotes Florian Philippot, French "Patriots" party leader, claiming Western countries want to accelerate a full-scale war, an RF IO effort to portray the West as aggressive. "Alex Parker Returns" amplifies the claim by former Pentagon aide Stephen Bryen that fallen drones in Poland were under Ukrainian control and part of a provocation for more NATO weapons, reinforcing a key RF disinformation narrative. "Alex Parker Returns" shares a derogatory post about Finnish President Stubb's closeness to Zelenskyy, aiming to undermine the perception of Western unity and leadership. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares a video promoting "Faith in the SVO" project, showing a priest with soldiers, reinforcing religious and morale-boosting narratives within RF armed forces. Рыбарь's "Historical Decision" post appears to be political propaganda, without direct military significance, but aiming to reinforce RF narratives. Alex Parker Returns shares multiple posts about Donald Trump potentially visiting Uzbekistan, likely to highlight his global influence or to contrast with the ongoing conflict. Maria Zakharova (TASS) states that Denmark's plans to produce solid rocket fuel for long-range missiles in Ukraine are an "adventure" and a "militarist course" that would escalate the conflict, indicating a new RF IO narrative to counter Western aid. TASS and Alex Parker Returns report the detention of an individual planning an assassination attempt on Vladimir Solovyev, framed as a Ukrainian special services operation, which RF will use for internal security messaging and demonization of Ukraine. TASS, Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, RBC-Ukraine, and Оперативний ЗСУ all report Peskov's statement about a "pause" in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, which RF will use to project a desire for dialogue while blaming European interference. Maria Zakharova (ТАСС) claims the West is trying to "fit" a legal base for stealing Russian assets, indicating continued RF IO regarding Western sanctions. Рыбарь discusses Moldovan President Sandu's statements, likely for IO against Moldova or to highlight its pro-Western stance. Maria Zakharova (Операция Z) claims "Zelenskyy is killing you for Western money," a highly inflammatory statement designed to undermine UAF and Western support. TASS shares a statement from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban claiming Ursula von der Leyen is leading the EU into an abyss with her political course, reinforcing narratives of EU disunity. TASS shares Maria Zakharova's statement accusing Kyiv of "gloating" over the Kirk assassination, proving the West has "raised a bloody monster" out of Kyiv, escalating inflammatory rhetoric. "Воин DV" sarcastically comments on Ukraine's delayed admission of territorial losses, implying UAF information manipulation. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reports on the "pause" in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, reinforcing the Kremlin's narrative. Colonelcassad reports the FSB detention of a Russian citizen in Klimovsk for allegedly financing UAF, which RF will use for internal security and propaganda. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares graphic combat footage, likely to demonstrate RF combat effectiveness or the brutality of war from their perspective. "Рыбарь" posts about "Prince on a white horse?" possibly a sarcastic comment on high-profile visits or a general IO message. AV БогомаZ posts about opening a new school in Bryansk, a civilian IO effort to project normalcy and development. "Операция Z" and "Военкор Котенок" amplify the claim of UAF attacking the Smolensk NPP, framing it as "nuclear terrorism," a severe escalation of RF IO. Maria Zakharova's statements are amplified by TASS, furthering RF's diplomatic IO. Colonelcassad's comment on the "fool" Vice-Mayor of Riga reinforces anti-Western sentiment. TASS reports Maria Zakharova's statements from a briefing, including criticisms of the West, indicating ongoing diplomatic IO. ТАСС reports on comments from the Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Financial Markets, Aksakov, stating that further reductions in the key interest rate are possible by the end of 2025, which will be used to project economic stability. Операция Z (RusVesna) shares video and images with the caption "Дети «для войны» и дети «для Европы»," contrasting statements by Ukrainian officials with the perceived lifestyle of their children abroad, a clear RF IO effort to expose alleged hypocrisy and sow discontent within Ukraine. Maria Zakharova (Басурин о главном) uses her official platform to accuse the "Kyiv regime" of conducting "terrorist war against peaceful residents of Russia," citing specific incidents in various regions, reinforcing RF's narrative for both domestic and international audiences. ТАСС reports that the German MFA summoned the Russian Ambassador regarding the drone incident in Poland, which RF will use to frame NATO as overly aggressive or to project its own diplomatic strength by having its ambassador summoned. TASS reports Trump stating the suspect in the Charlie Kirk murder is "very likely" in custody, leveraging US domestic news for IO. "Военкор Котенок" amplifies Trump's statement on the Charlie Kirk suspect. Alex Parker Returns and Оперативний ЗСУ also amplify Trump's statement on the Charlie Kirk suspect, further disseminating this US domestic news in the RF IO space. Alex Parker Returns shares a video featuring Donald Trump discussing the death penalty for the Kirk suspect, further amplifying this narrative. TASS also reports Trump hopes for the death penalty for Kirk's killer, reinforcing the RF IO focus on this event. Рыбарь shares a map titled "Cocaine Bridge," which, while not directly military, may allude to illicit activities or narratives for IO. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares a photo message about the "First ban on leaving the country due to the electronic register of subpoenas," indicating a new RF IO narrative on mobilization and internal control. ТАСС reports that Dmitry Bykov (recognized as a foreign agent and extremist in RF) is accused of spreading false information about RF shelling of Kharkiv, indicating RF IO targeting dissenting voices and controlling narratives about its actions in Ukraine. РБК-Україна shares a photo message about "Departure abroad for guys aged 18-22: has business felt the outflow of personnel," indicating a UAF-aligned IO focusing on the impact of mobilization on Ukrainian society. "Два майора" shares photo messages and text expressing concern about "United Russia" candidates in regional elections, specifically mentioning issues with diaspora leaders, which may represent an internal RF IO critique or concern. "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" shares photo messages about opening a memorial plaque to fallen defender Oleksandr Dokukin, a UAF IO effort to honor fallen soldiers and boost morale. Офіс Генерального прокурора shares a photo message about a "scheme of fictitious employment in 'fake' educational institutions to evade mobilization," indicating a UAF internal IO effort to combat draft evasion. TASS now identifies the Charlie Kirk killer suspect as 22-year-old Tyler Robinson from Utah, using NYP as a source, continuing to amplify US domestic news for IO purposes. TASS shares a video of Nabiullina discussing housing construction growth (10%) and price doubling (2x) since 2020, likely for domestic economic IO. Новости Москвы advertises a cashback program from Alfa-Bank for train tickets, another domestic IO effort to promote normalcy and consumerism. The Coordination Staff for POWs is holding a meeting with families of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade (UAF) fighters, demonstrating UAF commitment to POW support. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of Ukrainian soldiers from the '3rd Army Corps' operating in a rural environment, including interaction with captured individuals, indicating active UAF ground operations and potentially POW capture. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА share video of a meeting with Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, discussing further support, defense aid, joint weapons production, and EU membership, highlighting continued UAF diplomatic efforts. STERNENKO shares video of the UAF BAS Fenix unit working daily on Russian logistics in Donetsk Oblast, showcasing UAF operational effectiveness against RF supply lines. РБК-Україна reports the State Bureau of Investigation (DBR) has completed its investigation into Ukrainian MP Yevhen Shevchenko for treason and fraud, demonstrating continued UAF anti-corruption efforts. Олександр Вілкул shares multiple photo messages with the caption "ЖИТТЯ ТРИВАЄ!" (Life Continues!), depicting civilian events with traditional Ukrainian attire, a UAF IO effort to boost morale and project normalcy amidst the conflict. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational information as of 16:00, 12.09.2025, continuing regular updates. TASS reports the Central Bank is concerned about unsubstantiated blocking of citizen funds and will take measures, an RF IO effort to reassure the public about economic stability. Colonelcassad amplifies former Polish MEP Janusz Korwin-Mikke's accusation that Ukraine launched drones towards Poland, reinforcing RF's narrative to shift blame. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photo messages on "Ukraine on the way to the EU: Zaporizhzhia entrepreneurs and experts discussed legislative changes," a UAF IO effort to promote economic integration and European aspirations.
• Friendly Forces (Blue Force Tracking):
  • UAF:
    • Ground Forces: UAF repelled 130 RF attacks across all major axes in the last 24 hours. UAF drone operators are demonstrating tactical effectiveness against RF infantry, vehicles, and logistics. UAF 'Lazar' unit successfully destroyed a bridge near Nova Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, Russia. Ukrainian special forces destroyed an RF BMD-3 in the Zaporizhzhia direction. UAF 'UA_reg' special forces conducted successful strikes against enemy artillery and personnel in Kursk Oblast. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provides video showcasing significant delivery of logistics vehicles (trucks, vans, pickups) to the front. UAF General Staff provides a tactical map analysis of failed enemy advances. The 46th Separate Airmobile Podilsky Brigade of the UAF DSHV shares photos celebrating a soldier who "burned 16 tanks and returned every time after being wounded," aiming to boost internal morale and highlight valor. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares graphic video of a UAF soldier receiving immediate medical aid for a close-quarters bullet wound to the face, underscoring the intensity of combat and the importance of field medicine. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares video of humanitarian aid (including body bags) being delivered to soldiers, highlighting the harsh realities of the front line and the continued need for support. UAF 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" shares video of new advanced UAVs being deployed, indicating a focus on enhancing drone capabilities. Сили оборони Півдня України (Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine) claims to continue striking enemy deployment points, firing positions, and rear areas, with supporting photo/video. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" (UAF milblogger) claims Ukrainian Defense Forces (СОУ) have "cleared and liberated" the villages of Shakhove and Volodymyrivka on the Dobropillya direction, a tactical success if verified. RBC-Ukraine reports the National Guard unit "Rubizh" is collecting funds for the restoration of destroyed property and equipment, indicating localized resource shortfalls. "Два майора" (RF milblogger) posts a video appeal for Mavic drones for assault units on the Sumy direction, implying these drones are crucial for UAF reconnaissance and protection, and are a capability they seek to counter or obtain. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports SBU detained a Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate) priest who was allegedly adjusting RF strikes on Sumy Oblast for military intelligence, indicating successful UAF counter-intelligence operations. Liveuamap Source reports on daily clashes across South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv), Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, and Kherson directions, with UAF repelling numerous attacks, underscoring the widespread nature of combat. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims UAF has moved military aircraft to airfields in Poland and Romania, which, if true, indicates a strategic withdrawal or dispersal of air assets to avoid destruction and preserve combat capability. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports raid actions by "Morok" assault battalion, 225th Separate Assault Regiment, in the rear of the RF 810th Brigade, with remote mining by "Pentagon" pilots successfully stopping an RF interception attempt. This highlights successful UAF small unit tactics and drone support. STERNENKO reports +280 FPV drones purchased in the last day through public donations, indicating strong public support for UAF drone procurement. RBC-Україна supports fundraising for vehicles for the 153rd Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBR), indicating ongoing UAF logistical needs and public support. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares images and videos of a UAF vehicle ("Techik") undergoing repair, indicating maintenance and sustainment efforts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the 141st Mechanized Brigade has received Croatian M-84 tanks, indicating continued Western military aid and UAF modernization. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports an ex-commander of a military unit in Lviv Oblast is suspected of million-dollar damages during the purchase of army beds, highlighting UAF internal anti-corruption efforts. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a thermal drone video depicting a Russian soldier attempting to hide from a UAF drone operator (79th Airmobile Brigade), showcasing successful UAF drone hunter-killer operations. Zelenskiy / Official and Oleh Syniehubov, Governor of Kharkiv ODA, share photos celebrating Electronic Warfare (EW) personnel, showing soldiers with EW equipment, highlighting the importance of this capability for UAF. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UAF General Staff) announces a new training course "SEDO: digital document management in the army" for Army+ app users, indicating modernization of administrative procedures. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of Ukrainian snipers eliminating six Russian assault troops on the Toretsk front, Donetsk Oblast. "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares photos regarding the National Police liquidating a scheme for profiting from humanitarian vehicles for UAF in Kyiv, indicating ongoing efforts to combat corruption affecting military aid. "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" confirms a working trip to the Pokrovsk and Dobropillya directions, indicating high-level attention to these critical sectors. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration shares a video about a relocated art school operating in a bomb shelter in Zaporizhzhia, highlighting civilian resilience and educational continuity amidst the conflict. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Staff for POWs) emphasizes support for families of missing persons and those captured, and requests public support to disseminate important messages, indicating continued efforts to address the human impact of the conflict on military families. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF milblogger) shares video of SSO snipers engaging in close-quarters combat during an assault on enemy trench positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction by SSO snipers, involving grenades and small arms fire in close-quarters combat, highlighting active UAF ground engagements. Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF milblogger) shares video indicating RF is increasingly using FPV "Zhduny" (waiting/ambush drones) in combat, with the video showing a Ukrainian soldier engaging a stationary target. "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" shares photo messages celebrating EW personnel on their professional day, highlighting their crucial role. "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" shares photo messages about opening a memorial plaque for fallen defender Oleksandr Dokukin, indicating UAF efforts to honor military personnel. Офіс Генерального прокурора shares a photo message about a "scheme of fictitious employment in 'fake' educational institutions to evade mobilization," indicating UAF efforts to combat draft evasion. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational information as of 16:00, 12.09.2025, maintaining transparency. UAF General Staff provides updated operational information as of 16:00, 12.09.2025, detailing ongoing resistance against RF. The Coordination Staff for POWs is holding a meeting with families of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade (UAF) fighters, demonstrating UAF commitment to POW support. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of Ukrainian soldiers from the '3rd Army Corps' operating in a rural environment, including interaction with captured individuals, indicating active UAF ground operations and potentially POW capture.
    • Air/Missile Forces: UAF Air Defenses achieved a 94% interception rate (62 of 66 UAVs) against a significant RF air attack in the previous wave. HUR MOD specialists shot down 20 enemy drones. Shahed drone debris was found in Odesa. UAF kamikaze drones cleared an RF roadblock. A ballistic missile threat from the north was lifted. Air raid alerts for Zaporizhzhia and Odesa Oblasts were lifted, indicating successful air defense. UAF drone attacks are reported to have caused explosions and fires at an oil depot in Smolensk Oblast and Primorsk port in Leningrad Oblast. Ukrainian channels "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" share multiple videos and text suggesting successful UAF drone attacks causing fires and explosions in Smolensk and Leningrad Oblasts, including a LUKOIL facility and Primorsk. UAF Air Force reports 33 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed in the latest wave (from 40 launched). STERNENKO reports over 400 air targets intercepted by "Shahedoriz" project, indicating ongoing counter-UAV efforts. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" issues an air strike warning for Zaporizhzhia. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares video of an alleged UAV strike on a Transneft oil pumping station "Vtorovo" in Vladimir Oblast, Russia, indicating a significant expansion of UAF deep strike range and target type if verified. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares multiple videos depicting night-time explosions and missile trails, including an alleged UAV strike on Primorsk Port and a significant explosion in an urban/industrial area, reinforcing UAF deep strike claims. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports new reconnaissance UAV activity on the north of Chernihiv and east of Sumy Oblasts, indicating persistent RF ISR that UAF must monitor. Germany calls on partners to supply long-range weapons for strikes on Russia, signaling continued international support for UAF offensive capabilities. "Alex Parker Returns" shares video of an alleged strike on a fuel object in Vladimir Oblast, further supporting the claim of a UAF deep strike on a Transneft oil pumping station. RBC-Ukraine reports SBU drones hit Primorsk port, suspending oil shipments, indicating successful UAF deep strike and significant impact. UAF Air Force reports enemy attack UAVs heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast from northern Kherson Oblast. STERNENKO (UAF milblogger) reports 5 more enemy UAVs shot down. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UAF milblogger) provides an analysis of the alleged UAF UAV strike on the Transneft oil pumping station "Vtorovo," concluding that a "Lyutyy" UAV hit a technological overpass with pipelines, signal, and power cables. This provides specific BDA and target information, increasing the confidence in the success and impact of the strike. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno also shares maps of oil and gas pipelines, suggesting strategic targeting. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" issues an air raid alert for Cherkasy Oblast, warning of missile danger. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports enemy UAVs heading southwest from northern Kherson Oblast. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports KABs on Donetsk Oblast.
    • Naval Forces: Ukrainian HUR units successfully struck and disabled an RF Black Sea Fleet vessel (Project MPSV07) near Novorossiysk.
    • Information Warfare/Diplomacy: UAF continues to demonstrate asymmetric warfare capabilities through resistance movements like "ATESH." Poland has committed to cooperating with Ukraine on anti-drone systems. Sweden has provided its 20th package of military aid ($836M) and committed $4.276B annually for 2026-2027. Rheinmetall will deploy shell production in a safe region of Ukraine. President Zelenskyy met with US Special Representative General Keith Kellogg, as well as Danish, Finnish, and Estonian officials, confirming continued high-level support. UAF is actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to enhance international cooperation and air defense capabilities, including sharing expertise on countering Shaheds and training Polish military personnel on drone interception. UAF recognizes EW personnel day. UAF General Staff provides regular operational information and RF combat losses. UAF General Staff reports a productive conversation with the Polish Chief of General Staff, General Wiesław Kukuła, likely concerning drone incursions and border security. "STERNENKO" (UAF milblogger) notes UAF has "again failed to meet the norm for cutting Russians," possibly indicating a slowdown in RF personnel losses or a high internal expectation for combat effectiveness, or a sardonic comment. RBC-Ukraine reports the British Foreign Minister is in Kyiv to announce a winter aid package of $190 million, demonstrating continued international support. RBC-Ukraine reports Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski arrived in Kyiv, indicating ongoing high-level diplomatic engagement amidst the border crisis. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA), and the Office of the Prosecutor General all share "Minute of Silence" tributes, reinforcing national unity and remembrance. STERNENKO and Оперативний ЗСУ report the arrival of British Prince Harry in Kyiv, a high-profile visit boosting international attention and potentially morale. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a bipartisan group of US senators insists on naming Russia a state sponsor of terrorism, indicating continued pressure on RF from the US. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports six employees of a correctional facility in Poltava Oblast will be tried for torturing an inmate, highlighting Ukrainian efforts to address internal legal accountability. RBC-Ukraine reports Sikorski reacted to Trump's statement about drones in Poland, stating "This was not a mistake," reinforcing the Polish stance and countering Trump's narrative. Zelenskyy's official channel and KMVA share videos of the "Fifth Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen" with international guests from Austria, Denmark, Estonia, Lithuania, Finland, Serbia, Germany, emphasizing international support and diplomatic engagement on education and humanitarian themes. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the first train departed Uzhhorod on a newly built European gauge track to Budapest and Vienna, signifying efforts to improve economic and transport links with Europe, with potential dual-use benefits for logistics. Оперативний ЗСУ criticizes Trump as an "empty talker" not respected by enemies or allies, reflecting UAF dissatisfaction with his statements. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski stated "The invasion of 19 Russian UAVs into Poland was not a mistake," directly countering Trump's narrative and reinforcing a strong stance from a key NATO ally. "Alex Parker Returns" shares a photo message about Prince Harry's arrival in Ukraine by train from Warsaw, with a caption implying surprise or significance ("Вот это поворот!"). RBC-Ukraine also publishes video of Prince Harry arriving in Kyiv by train. This indicates a high-profile visit that boosts morale and international attention. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports Great Britain and Japan have introduced new sanctions against Russia, and the EU will present new sanctions on September 15, confirming continued international economic and diplomatic pressure. "Офіс Генерального прокурора" reports the detention of a woman in Kyiv selling cars imported as humanitarian aid for UAF, demonstrating UAF efforts to combat corruption and maintain integrity of aid. "Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація" shares a video of President Zelenskyy speaking at the Fifth Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen, emphasizing education and international solidarity, which is a UAF IO effort to showcase international support. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares images and videos of a UAF vehicle ("Techik") undergoing repair, indicating maintenance and sustainment efforts. RBC-Україна reports on the launch of new direct trains from Ukraine to Europe, further boosting diplomatic ties and transport links. "Alex Parker Returns" shares a derogatory post about Finnish President Stubb's closeness to Zelenskyy, attempting to undermine UAF diplomatic efforts. "Филолог в засаде" shares a photo of military personnel, possibly UAF, indicating ongoing efforts to document and share information on military activities. RBC-Ukraine reports EU countries have extended sanctions against Moscow and are preparing a 19th package. UAF (Оперативний ЗСУ), RBC-Ukraine, and TASS (Peskov) all comment on the "pause" in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, indicating a shared recognition of this diplomatic stagnation. UAF General Staff issued a decree establishing the Day of Electronic Warfare Troops on September 12, recognizing the importance of this branch. The Coordination Staff for the Treatment of Prisoners of War met with families of "Lyut" Assault Brigade fighters of the National Police, indicating continued support for POWs and their families. "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares two photo messages about "Day without booze," likely a morale-boosting or health-focused initiative among UAF. RBC-Ukraine reports a new state holiday in Ukraine, signed by Zelenskyy, further boosting national identity and morale. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports completion of a pre-trial investigation into a Ukrainian MP accused of fraud, demonstrating continued anti-corruption efforts. Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF milblogger) reports a shootout with two fatalities occurred in an auto service office in Lviv Oblast, confirming an internal security incident. RBC-Україна reports that the pre-trial detention of Ruslan Magomedrasulov, an NABU official, has been extended, indicating ongoing Ukrainian anti-corruption efforts. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) express gratitude to Great Britain for a new sanctions package against Russia's shadow fleet and military supply chains. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on Head of Bundestag Defense Committee Thomas Röwekamp stating that Russian drones threatening NATO territory should be shot down over Ukraine, indicating a clear allied position. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS amplifies Thomas Röwekamp's statement, further pushing this narrative within Ukraine. RBC-Україна reports that Ukrainian specialists will train Poles to shoot down drones, but not in Ukraine, indicating continued cooperation on air defense. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА share video of a meeting with Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, discussing further support for Ukraine.
    • Casualties: One civilian killed in Polohy Raion due to enemy attacks. The death of a 15-year-old boy in Kharkiv due to RF shelling. The 68-year-old man severely injured in a drone strike on Prymorske yesterday has died in hospital. UAF General Staff reports RF combat losses over the last 24 hours include 890 personnel. One security guard killed under the rubble in Sumy. RBC-Ukraine reports fatalities and destruction in residential areas of Sumy Oblast due to RF missile strikes. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares graphic video of a UAF soldier receiving immediate medical aid for a close-quarters bullet wound to the face, highlighting the direct human cost of intense combat. RBC-Ukraine reports 2 people killed and 5 houses destroyed in a village in Sumy Oblast due to RF strike. RBC-Ukraine reports at least 5 injured in a village in Sumy Oblast due to RF strike. ASTRA reports three people killed after a Russian attack in Sumy Oblast, as confirmed by local authorities. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF milblogger) reports two people killed and five injured in the village of Bytytsia, Sumy Oblast, as a result of a missile strike. STERNENKO (UAF milblogger) and Sumy Oblast Military Administration (OVA) confirm one person killed in Sumy due to RF drone strike this morning. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares graphic video footage depicting multiple deceased and dismembered individuals after an alleged artillery strike in a rural area. TASS reports 1 killed, 6 wounded in Kherson Oblast due to UAF shelling, which RF will use for IO. ASTRA reports the woman killed in Belgorod this morning died from the impact of a "Pantsir" air defense missile booster, confirming RF air defense malfunction/collateral damage. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports that Andriy Kuzmin, a resident of Tambov Oblast and father of 12, was eliminated near Byle in Kursk Oblast after signing a contract with the RF MoD, highlighting individual RF combat losses. "Север.Реалии" reports that the woman killed in Belgorod was killed by a "Pantsir" air defense missile booster, reaffirming the ASTRA report. RBC-Ukraine reports a shootout in an auto service office in Lviv Oblast with fatalities, indicating internal security challenges. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of Ukrainian snipers eliminating six Russian assault troops on the Toretsk front, Donetsk Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF milblogger) reports a shootout with two fatalities occurred in an auto service office in Lviv Oblast, confirming internal security incident with casualties. "Воин DV" shares a video from Zaporizhzhia showing deceased soldiers and destroyed military equipment after an engagement, highlighting casualties on the battlefield. "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" shares photo messages about opening a memorial plaque for fallen defender Oleksandr Dokukin, which confirms a UAF casualty. TASS reports 🚨 an accident on a cable car on Elbrus killed a local resident and a tourist. This is a civilian incident.

1.4. Intelligence Gaps (Confidence: HIGH)

• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the UAF drone strikes on the oil depot in Smolensk Oblast and Primorsk port in Leningrad Oblast? What specific types of facilities were hit (e.g., storage tanks, pumping stations, vessels), what is the estimated damage, and what is the operational impact on RF military/energy logistics? (Previous Critical for Smolensk, New for Primorsk Oil Depot) ASTRA reports no damage or casualties in Smolensk according to Governor Anokhin. This directly contradicts previous UAF claims and requires immediate verification. RBC-Ukraine reports oil shipments suspended from Primorsk, requiring verification of this specific impact. TASS claims a UAF drone attacked the Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant, hitting ancillary facilities. What is the verifiable BDA of this new strike? RF milblogger reporting also indicates the attack on Smolensk NPP. NEW: Росатом's claim of minor damage (fence, admin building) and no impact on critical infrastructure requires independent verification, as does the previous claim of ancillary facilities hit. This is a crucial intelligence gap regarding the true impact and potential for escalation.
• CRITICAL: What is the specific composition, strength, and immediate objectives of the RF 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment operating in the Sumy direction, particularly near Yunakovka? What is the current UAF force posture and defensive readiness in this sector? What specific village in Sumy Oblast was hit by the latest RF strike causing fatalities and destruction, and what is the confirmed BDA? ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS specifies Bytytsia as the village, requiring verification of BDA and confirmation of casualties.
• CRITICAL: What is the specific BDA of the alleged "liberation" of Sosnovka and Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by the RF "Vostok" Grouping/Russian Army? What UAF units were defending it, and what is the current UAF posture in Velykomykhailivka, which RF claims to be encircling? What is the verifiable BDA for the RF claim of "practically dislodging" UAF from Novomykolaivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast? What UAF units were involved, and what are the immediate RF intentions for exploitation? What are the precise details and verified advances depicted in the "Z комитет + карта СВО" maps for Velykomykhailivka and Novoivanivka? What are the specific changes reflected in the DeepState map update?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific BDA of the alleged RF strikes on the Lviv Armored Plant, Lviv Aviation Plant, and other DIB facilities in western Ukraine?
• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA and specific details of the alleged defection of a Russian soldier to the UAF after killing two officers and destroying his position, as reported by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС? What unit was he from, and what actionable intelligence has he provided?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific impact and BDA of the new RF mechanized offensive on the Kostiantynivka direction, as reported by STERNENKO? What RF units are involved, and what UAF forces are counter-attacking? What specific details are available regarding the RF breakthrough near Predtechino and Pleshcheyevka?
• CRITICAL: What is the verifiable BDA and source for the claim of 80% destruction of UAF assault groups near Andriyivka, Sumy Oblast (TASS)? What UAF units were involved, and what is the overall impact on UAF offensive capabilities in the Sumy region?
• CRITICAL: What is the current status of RF "motorcycle assaults"? Are these isolated incidents or a new, broader tactical adaptation? What are the specific vulnerabilities of these tactics to UAF counter-engagement?
• CRITICAL: What is the confirmed BDA of the alleged RF "practical dislodgement" of UAF from Kirovsk on the Krasny Liman direction? What UAF units were involved, and what are the immediate RF intentions for further exploitation?
• CRITICAL: What is the confirmed BDA of the RF claim regarding the destruction of a storage site for 155mm M203A1 propelling charges by a "VT-40" fiber-optic FPV drone? What UAF unit was affected, and what is the operational impact on UAF artillery sustainment?
• CRITICAL: What is the verifiable BDA and source for the claim by "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" that UAF has "cleared and liberated" the villages of Shakhove and Volodymyrivka on the Dobropillya direction? What RF units were defending these villages, and what are the immediate UAF intentions for further exploitation or consolidation?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific details of the SBU operation regarding the UOC-MP priest accused of adjusting RF strikes in Sumy Oblast? What intelligence was gathered, and how does this impact RF intelligence gathering networks?
• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA and context of the graphic video of multiple deceased and dismembered individuals shared by "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС"? What was the cause of casualties, and in what specific location did this occur?
• CRITICAL: What is the full scope and specific objectives of the "West-2025" exercises? What RF and Belarusian units are participating, what new capabilities are being tested, and what are the implications for potential future offensive operations against Ukraine or NATO? (Previously Critical, Reconfirmed) NEW: What is the specific composition of forces (unit breakdown, equipment numbers) involved in the "West-2025" exercises as depicted in the Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video? What specific tactical scenarios are being rehearsed?
• CRITICAL: What specific RF air defense system or air-to-air asset was responsible for the downing of the UAF Su-27 in the Zaporizhzhia direction, and what is the operational impact on UAF air superiority in this sector? (Previously Critical, Reconfirmed) MoD Russia claims it was destroyed in aerial combat by Russian Aerospace Forces, this needs independent verification.
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA and operational impact of the alleged UAV strike on the Transneft oil pumping station "Vtorovo" in Vladimir Oblast, Russia? What specific assets were targeted, and what is the estimated repair time and economic impact? NEW: КіберБорошно's analysis provides specific BDA (technological overpass, pipelines, cables), but independent verification and assessment of repair time/economic impact are still critical.
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA of the RF 68th ORB's claimed destruction of a UAF communications antenna/Starlink? What unit was affected and what is the impact on UAF C2?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable status of the claimed UAF relocation of military aircraft to airfields in Poland and Romania? What types and numbers of aircraft are involved, and what are the implications for UAF air operations and NATO-Ukraine cooperation?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA of the RF "Sparta" battalion's claimed destruction of two UAF UAV control points and a communication antenna near Dimitrov? What UAF units and C2 were affected?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the specific details of the RF Southern Grouping of Forces destroying three UAF UAV control posts and a Starlink antenna on the Siversk direction? What units were affected, and what is the impact on UAF C2?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the full scope and capabilities of the newly introduced Croatian M-84 tanks to the UAF 141st Mechanized Brigade? What is their deployment location and immediate impact on UAF armored capabilities?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA and tactical context of RF drone operations against Hryshyno, as reported by "Операция Z"? What specific UAF assets or personnel were targeted?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the full BDA and tactical significance of the RF Pacific Fleet exercises, specifically the involvement of nuclear submarines and Bastion coastal missile systems? How does this impact RF's overall strategic posture and potential for power projection?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verified BDA and full context of the thermal imaging footage shared by "Операция Z" of "Anvar" special forces attacking a convoy on the Sumy axis? What type of vehicles were targeted, and what was the impact?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA and specific location of the UAF sniper operation reported by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС on the Toretsk front, Donetsk Oblast, resulting in six RF assault troops eliminated?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the full extent of the "Day without booze" initiative by "Оперативний ЗСУ"? Is it a UAF-wide campaign, and what is its specific intent beyond general health?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the specific details and impact of the new state holiday announced by Zelenskyy, and how does it relate to military or national morale?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What are the full details and the financial impact of the fraud investigation into the Ukrainian MP reported by the Office of the Prosecutor General? How does this impact public trust in UAF government and aid efforts?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What are the specifics of the combat scenarios (wooded, open fields, destroyed vehicles) depicted in the new "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video? What RF units are involved, and what is the operational context? NEW: What are the specific targets and BDA of the RF FPV drone operations by the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, "Vostok" Grouping, as shown in the "Воин DV" video? What types of vehicles/personal were engaged?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the operational impact and specific targets of the artillery bombardment depicted in "Сливочный каприз" video of the Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk area?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the true nature and impact of the shootout with two fatalities in an auto service office in Lviv Oblast? Was it an isolated criminal act, or does it indicate broader internal security concerns with potential links to the conflict?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA and context of the SSO snipers' close-quarters combat during an assault on enemy trench positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction, as shown in the БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video? What enemy units were encountered?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What are the specific tactical applications and vulnerabilities of RF's FPV "Zhduny" drones, as highlighted by Оперативний ЗСУ? How are UAF forces adapting to counter this tactic?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA of the RF reactive artillery engagement shown in "Старше Эдды"'s video? What UAF targets were engaged, and what was the impact?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the current status and capabilities of the VAZ-2121 (Niva) or similar Soviet-era vehicles being restored and customized with military markings for RF forces, as shown in Colonelcassad's "4th auto column" video? What is their intended role and impact on RF ground mobility?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What are the current and future resource requirements for RF airborne troops, as implied by "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺"'s donation appeal? What does this indicate about their sustainment status?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the specific impact of the scheme for fictitious employment in 'fake' educational institutions to evade mobilization in Kyiv, as reported by Офіс Генерального прокурора? How widespread is this issue, and what is its impact on UAF mobilization efforts?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What are the specific targets and BDA of the Russian border guard operations against UAF equipment, infantry, and positions on the Bryansk-Chernihiv direction, as reported by "Операция Z"?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the specific operational context and BDA of the UAF '3rd Army Corps' operations as shown in the БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video, particularly regarding the captured individuals? What intelligence can be derived from these interactions?
• HIGH: What is the exact damage assessment and long-term operational impact of the HUR strike on the RF Black Sea Fleet Project MPSV07 vessel near Novorossiysk? How long will repairs take, and how does this affect RF maritime operations in the Black Sea?
• HIGH: What is the specific BDA and the full impact of the RF assault groups using the "Potok" ("Kursk pipe") method for infiltration on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction? What are the defensive countermeasures required for such subterranean/culvert-based movements?
• HIGH: What are NATO's specific military Rules of Engagement (ROE) and force posture changes following the Article 4 consultation regarding future RF incursions? What are RF's strategic red lines for a direct NATO military response?
• HIGH: What is the strength, composition, and immediate objective of RF second-echelon forces positioned to exploit the Pokrovsk breakthrough?
• HIGH: What is the specific military significance of the restrictions imposed at the airports of Ivanovo, Pskov, Yaroslavl, and St. Petersburg overnight? Are these linked to UAF deep strikes or internal RF security incidents, and what assets/operations are affected? TASS reports restrictions lifted for Ivanovo, Yaroslavl, and Pskov, reducing this gap's scope.
• HIGH: What is the specific target and BDA of the allegedly destroyed ammunition depot in occupied Luhansk, and what UAF assets were responsible for this strike?
• HIGH: What is the exact status and operational implications of RF control over Kolodyazi on the Krasny Liman direction? What UAF units were defending, and what are the immediate RF intentions following this alleged capture?
• HIGH: What is the specific military significance of the traffic jam reported towards Khartsyzk, including the presence of military-style trucks? Does this indicate a RF logistical movement, increased security, or a response to an incident?
• HIGH: What is the confirmed success rate and methodology of RF snipers against UAF "Baba Yaga" drones? What counter-measures are effective against this new RF tactical adaptation?
• HIGH: What is the verifiable BDA for the purported "Rubizh" brigade funding drive for destroyed property/equipment? Does this indicate systemic logistical issues or localized combat losses?
• HIGH: What is the full impact and the intent behind RF FSB detaining a Russian citizen in Klimovsk for allegedly financing UAF and planning to join combat? Is this an isolated incident or part of a broader internal security crackdown?
• HIGH: What is the specific impact of the observed geomagetic disturbances on military C2, ISR, or navigation systems for both UAF and RF forces?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA and context of the RF FAB guided aerial bomb strikes on UAF positions in Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast?
• HIGH (NEW): What specific capabilities are being tested in RF's "heavy drone evading EW"? What is its current stage of development and potential deployment timeline?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the specific impact of the internal RF investigation and charges against the ex-commander of a military unit in Lviv Oblast regarding million-dollar damages during army bed procurement? How does this affect UAF procurement and anti-corruption efforts?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the effectiveness of UAF's 79th Airmobile Brigade's drone hunter-killer operations against camouflaged RF soldiers, as depicted in the БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video? What counter-measures are RF soldiers employing?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA of the RF drone exhibition ("Дронница")? What new technologies were showcased, and what are their potential military implications?
• HIGH (NEW): What are the specific implications for RF naval operations in the Arctic Ocean from the Northern Fleet deployments during "West-2025"?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the full context and impact of the "Воин DV" comment on Ukraine's delayed admission of territorial losses?
• HIGH (NEW): What are the specific details and operational context of the new combat video shared by "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺"? What are the identified types of military vehicles destroyed?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the veracity and full context of the identified Turkish self-loading rifle (AKdal MKA-1919) in "Воин DV"'s video from Zaporizhzhia? Does this indicate a new source of weapons for either side or a captured weapon?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the full BDA and contextual information for the image of three Russian soldiers in "Два майора"'s video, given their expressions of gratitude for donations? What specific armored vehicle was donated, and what is its operational status?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the military significance of AV БогомаZ's photo message? Is it related to combat operations or purely internal messaging?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the specific military intelligence value of the multiple photo messages of EW personnel shared by "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)"? Are there any identifiable equipment or unit markings?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the specific military intelligence value of the "СТИКЕРПАК «АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА»" photo messages? Are these for morale, recruitment, or commercial purposes?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the tactical significance of the "Кокаиновый мост" (Cocaine Bridge) map shared by Рыбарь? Does it imply RF counter-narcotics operations or an IO narrative related to UAF/Western illicit activities?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the full impact and the intent behind the "First ban on leaving the country due to the electronic register of subpoenas" reported by МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники? Does this indicate a new phase of RF mobilization or stricter enforcement?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the current status of Dmitry Bykov's case, accused of spreading false information about RF shelling of Kharkiv? What evidence is being presented by TASS?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the specific context and impact of "РБК-Україна" reporting on the departure abroad of young Ukrainian men (18-22) and its effect on business? Does this indicate a new mobilization trend or social concern?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the full context and impact of the internal RF IO concern raised by "Два майора" regarding "United Russia" candidates and diaspora leaders in regional elections? Does this indicate internal political friction relevant to the war effort?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the full significance of the memorial plaque for fallen defender Oleksandr Dokukin in Zaporizhzhia? What unit was he from, and does this indicate a recent casualty or a commemorative act?
• HIGH (NEW): What are the specific items seized in the "scheme of fictitious employment in 'fake' educational institutions to evade mobilization" in Kyiv, as reported by Офіс Генерального прокурора? Do they reveal any organizational structure or patterns?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the status of the 38 US M1A2 Abrams tanks reported to have arrived in Poland? Are they fully operational, and what are their intended deployment and role?
• MEDIUM: What are the specific capabilities and tactical applications of the newly delivered BMP-3s with enhanced protection and modernized BMD-2s? Where are these being deployed, and what is their immediate impact on RF ground combat effectiveness?
• MEDIUM: What is the full scope and impact of the RF army aviation operations in Kharkiv Oblast, Iziumskyi district, particularly near Borovska Andriyivka? What specific targets were engaged, and what UAF units were affected?
• MEDIUM: What is the current status and capacity of the newly built European gauge rail line from Uzhhorod to Budapest/Vienna for potential military/dual-use logistics?
• MEDIUM: What specific details are discernable from the "Novopavlovsk direction" tactical map screenshots shared by "Операция Z" and "Z комитет + карта СВО"? What do the symbols and territorial markings indicate about RF objectives and control in this sector?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the full context and impact of the detention of a woman in Kyiv for selling cars imported as humanitarian aid for UAF? How widespread is this issue, and what measures are being taken to prevent it?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the specific location and BDA of the UAF drone strike on a civilian vehicle in Shevchenkivska community, Kharkiv Oblast?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the specific tactical context of the raid actions by UAF's "Morok" assault battalion and the remote mining by "Pentagon" pilots in the rear of the RF 810th Brigade? What RF units were involved in the attempted interception?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the specific impact of the Central Bank of Russia lowering the key interest rate? What does this indicate about the broader RF economic situation and its ability to sustain the war effort? NEW: What is the specific impact of further interest rate reductions to 15% by end of 2025, as suggested by Aksakov?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What are the implications of the internal criminal case against former RF Ministry of Defense military representation head, Andrei Tyurin, for corruption?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What are the specifics of the relocated Malobilozerska specialized aesthetic school "Dyvosvit" in Zaporizhzhia, and how does its operation in a bomb shelter reflect civilian resilience?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the specific impact of the extension of pre-trial detention for NABU official Ruslan Magomedrasulov on Ukrainian anti-corruption efforts and public trust?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What are the specific discussions and outcomes from President Zelenskyy's meeting with Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, particularly regarding defense aid and joint weapons production?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the full scope and capabilities of the UAF BAS Fenix unit operating in Donetsk Oblast, and what is the specific BDA of their strikes on Russian logistics?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the specific evidence and full context of the State Bureau of Investigation (DBR) completing its investigation into Ukrainian MP Yevhen Shevchenko for treason and fraud? How might this impact UAF internal politics or public trust?
• LOW (NEW): What are the implications of the reported increase in basic food product prices in Ukraine, and the relative decrease in cabbage prices, for civilian morale and economic stability?
• LOW (NEW): What is the precise nature and impact of the reported "geomagnetic disturbances" on military operations or communication systems?
• LOW (NEW): What are the specific details of Sberbank's reduction in deposit rates and the overall impact on the RF financial sector and public confidence?
• LOW (NEW): What is the specific context and impact of the International Bobsleigh and Skeleton Federation's decision to exclude Russians from Olympic qualification?
• LOW (NEW): What is the full scope and intent of the State Duma's proposal to equate vapes to narcotics?
• LOW (NEW): What is the specific nature of the technical work causing temporary unavailability of the Alfa-Bank mobile application, and does it indicate any underlying cyber vulnerabilities?
• LOW (NEW): What is the full context and impact of the Coordination Staff for POWs meeting with families of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade? What specific information or support was provided, and what are the key concerns of the families?
• LOW (NEW): What are the specific actions being taken by the Coordination Staff for POWs in terms of public messaging, and what is their intended effect on families of missing persons and POWs?
• LOW (NEW): What is the significance of the Peterburg artist's administrative arrest in Vyborg due to lack of space in a Petersburg insulator, as reported by "Север.Реалии"? Does this reflect systemic issues in RF's judicial or detention system?
• LOW (NEW): What is the specific impact of the Central Bank of Russia lowering the key rate to 16%, and Nabiullina's statements on inflation and housing prices, on the broader RF economy and its ability to sustain the war effort?
• LOW (NEW): What is the military significance of TASS reporting on a cable car accident on Elbrus resulting in fatalities?

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (Confidence: HIGH)

• Capabilities:

  • Sustained Ground Offensive with Massed Forces & Expanded Scope: RF demonstrates the capability for sustained, multi-axis ground offensives, achieving localized breakthroughs (Pokrovsk, Siversk, Lyman, Konstantinovka, Kirovsk, Novomykolaivka, Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye), urban combat, and deploying new robotic systems ('Kur'er'). Confirmed capability for new advances and "liberation" in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye, Novomykolaivka), a significant expansion of operational scope, with objectives to encircle UAF forces in Velykomykhailivka. Rosgvardia has been armed with tank/anti-tank guns, SPGs, and MLRS, enhancing RF's ground combat capability. RF has specialized armored units ("Terminator") and a T-90M Proryv tank capability against UAF UAV command posts. RF is proficient in FPV drone operations for close-quarters combat and strikes on urban positions (e.g., Polohy direction) and against UAF artillery logistics (e.g., 155mm charge destruction). RF units can conduct integrated ISR and direct engagement on multiple fronts (e.g., South Donetsk). RF is capable of managing combat casualties and maintaining medical support. RF is also employing non-standard vehicles (buggies, ATVs, motorcycles) for tactical purposes. RF airborne units can conduct offensive actions. RF demonstrates enhanced homeland air defense capabilities against mass drone attacks, claiming 221 UAVs shot down overnight, and effectively downing 33 UAVs in the latest wave. RF demonstrates capability to conduct large-scale, multi-domain military training through the "West-2025" exercises, including naval power projection. RF demonstrates capability for effective counter-drone operations using snipers against heavy strike UAVs ("Baba Yaga"). RF's Southern Grouping of Forces can destroy UAF UAV control posts and Starlink antennas, impacting UAF C2. RF demonstrates sustained military industrial production and modernization capabilities, delivering new BMP-3s and modernized BMD-2s to troops, as further confirmed by Poddubny. RF army aviation provides direct air support for ground advances (e.g., Iziumskyi district, Zaporizhzhia). The RF 68th ORB demonstrates capability for precise counter-C2 strikes against UAF communications (Starlink). RF "Sparta" battalion demonstrates capability for precision FPV drone strikes to destroy UAF UAV control points and communication antennas. RF is reportedly testing a "heavy drone evading EW," indicating an advanced counter-EW capability in development. RF 215th Combined Arms Army demonstrates combat training with AGS-17 Plamya, indicating continued readiness in the SVO zone. RF shows capability for active drone operations against Hryshyno. RF demonstrates ability to use military chaplains to support and motivate troops. RF "Anvar" special forces demonstrate capability to conduct thermal imaging drone-assisted attacks on convoys, supporting offensive operations on the Sumy axis. RF demonstrates a significant and sustained offensive tempo, claiming daily advances of up to 40 km² per day. MoD Russia claims capability to strike Ukrainian defense industry, transport, energy infrastructure, military airfields, and depots from 6-12 September, demonstrating sustained, high-precision strike capabilities. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows RF capability for active combat operations with drone surveillance and targeting, including destruction of military vehicles. "Воин DV" video shows RF capability for active FPV drone operations, engaging light vehicles and personnel. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video confirms RF capability for large-scale, multi-branch exercises ("West-2025") with strategic assets (bombers, submarines). Оперативний ЗСУ highlights RF's increasing use of FPV "Zhduny" (ambush) drones, indicating a specialized FPV drone tactic. "Два майора" video highlights RF reliance on public donations for armored vehicles and batteries. Colonelcassad's video on "4th auto column" demonstrates RF's ability to mobilize volunteer efforts for vehicle supply and modification. "Воин DV"'s video from Zaporizhzhia demonstrates RF's capability to operate evacuation groups under fire and highlights identification of enemy weapons (Turkish self-loading rifle). "Старше Эдды" video implies RF capability in reactive artillery operations. New video from "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shows Russian border guards destroying UAF equipment, infantry, and positions on the Bryansk-Chernihiv direction, indicating a sustained cross-border interdiction capability.
  • Ballistic Missile Strike Capability (North and Kursk Oblast): RF has the capability to conduct long-range precision strikes from the north and from Kursk Oblast, including against residential areas.
  • Drone Swarm Capability (Zaporizhzhia): RF maintains the capability to conduct persistent drone attacks, potentially in coordinated swarms, against key urban centers.
  • Adaptive FPV Drone Operations: RF is increasingly employing FPV drones for specialized tactical roles, demonstrating effective targeting against high-value assets and personnel, including against UAF transport concealed in forest belts and in combat zones (Polohy direction) and against artillery ammunition stores, and against UAF UAV control posts and communications. RF's use of FPV "Zhduny" drones indicates an adaptive and evolving FPV drone doctrine.
  • Persistent IO and Cyber Operations (Highly Adaptive): RF maintains a robust capability for multi-layered information warfare, including rapid adaptation to new narratives, highly inflammatory accusations (e.g., TCC priest incident), and efforts to sow discord. RF is capable of immediate and coordinated IO, generating and disseminating narratives of Western weakness (e.g., Trump's comments), exploiting US internal events, and attempting to discredit Western media. RF conducts internal IO to reinforce domestic support and justify the conflict, including youth indoctrination and promoting nationalistic religious events. RF is capable of proactively shaping battlefield narratives (e.g., "looting" in Krasny Liman, "correct behavior" by RF troops, discrediting NATO drone claims, denying damage in Smolensk, blaming UAF for Myrotvorets listing of children). RF also demonstrates the capability for internal security operations against alleged pro-Ukrainian individuals, leveraged for propaganda. RF is capable of projecting long-term strategic goals (e.g., capture of Odesa and Mykolaiv by 2027). RF also intends to continue targeting UAF UAV C2 and communications. RF intends to actively conduct drone operations to support ground advances (e.g., Hryshyno, new combat video). RF intends to accelerate the pace of offensive operations, as indicated by its internal assessments. RF also demonstrates the capability for internal security operations against alleged pro-Ukrainian individuals, leveraged for propaganda. RF is capable of projecting long-term strategic goals (e.g., capture of Odesa and Mykolaiv by 2027). RF is also actively using events in third-party countries (e.g., Brazil) to promote narratives of anti-Western sentiment and the rise of BRICS. RF is capable of integrating its IO into domestic political activities, such as naming polling stations after war participants. RF is capable of generating narratives to deflect blame for civilian casualties from its own air defenses (e.g., Belgorod Pantsir incident). RF IO capability includes discrediting Western aid (e.g., "inoperable Patriot" claim, Danish rocket fuel production), shifting blame for drone incursions (e.g., Bryen's claims, former Polish MEP's accusation), and rapidly creating counter-narratives to Ukrainian deep strikes or IO efforts (e.g., "fake" videos of children with firearms). RF IO leverages statements from European politicians (Florian Philippot) to portray the West as escalating the war. RF IO attempts to undermine Western unity and leadership by attacking personal relationships between leaders (Stubb-Zelenskyy). RF IO capability includes promoting domestic cultural events (Intervision) and consumerism (Moscow car giveaway, Alfa-Bank cashback for train tickets) to project normalcy and deflect from the war. RF IO leverages international events (Trump's potential Uzbekistan visit) to project influence. RF IO frames the pause in negotiations by blaming Europe and Ukraine. RF IO uses high-profile internal security operations (e.g., assassination plot against Solovyev) for propaganda. RF IO attempts to counter Western sanctions narratives by portraying them as illegal theft. RF IO discusses Moldovan President Sandu's statements for IO purposes. RF IO uses inflammatory rhetoric (Zakharova: "Zelenskyy is killing you for Western money") to demonize Ukrainian leadership. RF IO leverages statements from Hungarian PM Orban to portray EU disunity. RF IO escalates inflammatory rhetoric regarding the Charlie Kirk assassination to demonize Kyiv. "Воин DV" sarcastically comments on Ukraine's delayed admission of territorial losses, implying UAF information manipulation. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reports on the "pause" in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, reinforcing the Kremlin's narrative. Colonelcassad reports the FSB detention of a Russian citizen in Klimovsk for allegedly financing UAF, which RF will use for internal security and propaganda. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares graphic combat footage, likely to demonstrate RF combat effectiveness or the brutality of war from their perspective. "Рыбарь" posts about "Prince on a white horse?" possibly a sarcastic comment on high-profile visits or a general IO message. AV БогомаZ posts about opening a new school in Bryansk, a civilian IO effort to project normalcy and development. "Операция Z" and "Военкор Котенок" amplify the claim of UAF attacking the Smolensk NPP, framing it as "nuclear terrorism," a severe escalation of RF IO. Maria Zakharova's statements are amplified by TASS, furthering RF's diplomatic IO. Colonelcassad's comment on the "fool" Vice-Mayor of Riga reinforces anti-Western sentiment. TASS reports Maria Zakharova's statements from a briefing, including criticisms of the West, indicating ongoing diplomatic IO. ТАСС reports on comments from the Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Financial Markets, Aksakov, stating that further reductions in the key interest rate are possible by the end of 2025, which will be used to project economic stability. Операция Z (RusVesna) shares video and images with the caption "Дети «для войны» и дети «для Европы»," contrasting statements by Ukrainian officials with the perceived lifestyle of their children abroad, a clear RF IO effort to expose alleged hypocrisy and sow discontent within Ukraine. Maria Zakharova (Басурин о главном) uses her official platform to accuse the "Kyiv regime" of conducting "terrorist war against peaceful residents of Russia," citing specific incidents in various regions, reinforcing RF's narrative for both domestic and international audiences. ТАСС reports that the German MFA summoned the Russian Ambassador regarding the drone incident in Poland, which RF will use to frame NATO as overly aggressive or to project its own diplomatic strength by having its ambassador summoned. TASS reports Trump stating the suspect in the Charlie Kirk murder is "very likely" in custody, leveraging US domestic news for IO. "Военкор Котенок" amplifies Trump's statement on the Charlie Kirk suspect. Alex Parker Returns and Оперативний ЗСУ also amplify Trump's statement on the Charlie Kirk suspect, further disseminating this US domestic news in the RF IO space. Alex Parker Returns shares a video featuring Donald Trump discussing the death penalty for the Kirk suspect, further amplifying this narrative. TASS also reports Trump hopes for the death penalty for Kirk's killer, reinforcing the RF IO focus on this event. Рыбарь shares a map titled "Cocaine Bridge," which, while not directly military, may allude to illicit activities or narratives for IO. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares a photo message about the "First ban on leaving the country due to the electronic register of subpoenas," indicating a new RF IO narrative on mobilization and internal control. ТАСС reports that Dmitry Bykov (recognized as a foreign agent and extremist in RF) is accused of spreading false information about RF shelling of Kharkiv, indicating RF IO targeting dissenting voices and controlling narratives about its actions in Ukraine. "Два майора" shares photo messages and text expressing concern about "United Russia" candidates in regional elections, specifically mentioning issues with diaspora leaders, which may represent an internal RF IO critique or concern. TASS identifying the Charlie Kirk killer suspect shows RF's continued capability to rapidly disseminate relevant (to their IO) international news. TASS shares a video of Nabiullina discussing housing construction and prices, demonstrating RF's capability to use economic data for domestic IO. Новости Москвы advertising Alfa-Bank's cashback for train tickets indicates RF's ability to maintain public morale through consumer-focused IO.
  • Overwhelming Long-Range Strike & Air Presence (Escalated Volume): RF maintains overwhelming long-range strike capability (Iskander-K, Shaheds, KABs, cruise missiles), capable of massed, multi-platform, and precision strikes against critical DIB, energy, and national C2 infrastructure, as well as residential areas. RF army aviation provides close air support, including FAB guided aerial bombs. TASS reports RF capability to attack nuclear power plants, as demonstrated by the Smolensk NPP incident, even if for ancillary facilities. RF milbloggers are amplifying the Smolensk NPP attack, framing it as "nuclear terrorism," indicating a capability to rapidly frame events for propaganda. Росатом's statement implies RF capability to downplay damage to sensitive targets like nuclear power plants.
  • Homeland Air Defense: RF demonstrates capability to defend its capital and critical infrastructure against aerial threats. RF has successfully repelled over 30 UAVs in Rostov Oblast and destroyed over 30 UAVs in Leningrad Oblast, demonstrating robust air defense against mass deep strikes. RF is also capable of rapid response and damage mitigation at critical naval infrastructure, as demonstrated at Primorsk port. RF claims a high number of UAVs downed (221 overnight). RF is capable of quickly restoring civilian air traffic after drone incidents (e.g., Pskov, Krasnodar).
  • Naval Power Projection: Demonstrated capability to conduct naval exercises with multi-branch assets, including submarines and strategic bombers, in the Baltic and Barents Seas as part of "West-2025." The deployment of the Northern Fleet for "West-2025" confirms capability for large-scale, multi-domain naval exercises, including surface and subsurface assets. The Pacific Fleet's planned exercises with nuclear submarines and Bastion coastal missile systems further demonstrate large-scale naval power projection across different RF fleets. TASS reports Northern Fleet deployed forces in the Arctic Ocean for "West-2025" exercises. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video confirms RF capability for large-scale naval exercises with multiple assets.
  • Economic Resilience (Adaptation): RF Central Bank's decision to lower the key interest rate for the third time indicates an adaptive economic policy to manage inflation and maintain economic stability under sanctions. RF demonstrates capacity to target the energy sector and youth militarization through sanctions (Japan on Alabuga and "new pioneers"). VTB's rate reductions for consumer loans, mortgages, and auto loans reflect a coordinated economic response to the Central Bank's policy, aiming to stimulate domestic consumption and maintain economic stability. Sberbank is lowering deposit rates from 15 September, further indicating adaptive economic policy to manage financial conditions. Aksakov's statement regarding further interest rate reductions projects confidence in RF's economic adaptation and ability to sustain the war effort. TASS reports on Central Bank rate reductions and Nabiullina's statements indicate an adaptive strategy for economic messaging. TASS reports Nabiullina discussing increased housing construction and prices, demonstrating RF's capability to use economic data for domestic IO, while also revealing a housing affordability challenge. TASS reports the Central Bank is concerned about unsubstantiated blocking of citizen funds and will take measures, demonstrating a capability for internal financial regulation and public reassurance.
  • Internal Control & Accountability: The criminal case against a former head of RF Ministry of Defense military representation, Andrei Tyurin, indicates internal mechanisms for addressing corruption and abuse of power within the defense sector.
  • Domestic Policy Adaptation: RF State Duma considering equating vapes to narcotics indicates domestic policy focus beyond the immediate conflict, potentially to address social issues or for internal control.

• Intentions:

  • Achieve Decisive Breakthrough on Pokrovsk Axis and Expand Dnipropetrovsk/Lyman/Sumy/Novopavlovsk Offensive: RF's primary intent is to exploit current breakthroughs to gain significant operational depth on the Pokrovsk axis and to consolidate and expand the new salient at Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye, and Novomykolaivka, threatening Velykomykhailivka. RF intends to maintain pressure on urban areas (e.g., Vovchansk, Chasiv Yar) and degrade UAF artillery. RF also intends to initiate or expand offensive actions on the Sumy direction (Yunakovka) and continue advances on the Krasny Liman direction, including the claimed capture of Kolodyazi and Kirovsk. RF intends to break through UAF defenses near Predtechino and Pleshcheyevka to further advance on Konstantinovka. The reported advances on Pokrovsk-Myrnograd and Novopavlovsk direction further confirm this intent, including around Velykomykhailivka and Novoivanivka. RF intends to sustain these operations until strategic objectives, such as the capture of Odesa and Mykolaiv, are met (projected 2027). RF also intends to continue targeting UAF UAV C2 and communications. RF intends to actively conduct drone operations to support ground advances (e.g., Hryshyno, new combat video). RF intends to accelerate the pace of offensive operations, as indicated by its internal assessments. RF intends to use advanced FPV drone tactics, like "Zhduny," to ambush UAF forces. RF intends to continue border interdiction operations, as seen on the Bryansk-Chernihiv direction.
  • Degrade Ukrainian Winter Resilience & Overwhelm Air Defenses: RF intends to continue systematic mass strikes against Ukrainian DIB, energy, industrial, and logistical infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's ability to sustain operations through winter and to saturate/overwhelm UAF air defenses. This includes persistent ballistic missile and drone pressure, targeting residential areas to induce fear and erode morale. RF will also employ FAB guided aerial bombs against UAF rear areas. RF intends to prevent UAF from acquiring long-range strike capabilities, as evidenced by Zakharova's statements on Danish rocket fuel production. RF intends to demonstrate the capability and willingness to attack Ukrainian nuclear facilities (e.g., Smolensk NPP, even if ancillary facilities) as a means of psychological pressure and potential escalation. RF intends to frame UAF deep strikes against sensitive Russian targets like nuclear power plants as "nuclear terrorism" for propaganda. Росатом's statement implies RF intent to downplay damage to sensitive targets like nuclear power plants.
  • Undermine Western Support and Ukrainian Morale: RF will continue aggressive information operations to discredit UAF, sow distrust, amplify internal challenges, and exploit any perceived cracks in Western unity (e.g., Trump's comments on Poland, US internal events). This includes leveraging diplomatic incidents and internal US political events, as well as blaming UAF for civilian casualties in border regions (Bryansk, Belgorod) and promoting narratives of UAF military misconduct (e.g., TCC priest incident, SBU arrest of UOC-MP priest) and impending UAF withdrawals. RF will also attempt to deny successful UAF deep strikes (e.g., Smolensk) to maintain its narrative of invulnerability, and leverage claims about UAF listing children on "Myrotvorets." RF will also use IO to shift blame for collateral damage from its own air defenses (e.g., Belgorod Pantsir incident). RF intends to use domestic events, such as elections and naming polling stations after war participants, to normalize the conflict and boost patriotic sentiment. RF also intends to use claims of UAF targeting border regions to disrupt international diplomacy (Russia-US summit). RF intends to discredit defectors (Kuzminov) and dissenting cultural figures (Pugacheva). RF intends to amplify narratives of Ukrainian extremism (Myrotvorets listing of Kurtukova). RF intends to discredit Western military aid by claiming it is inoperable, and to continue shifting blame for drone incursions to Ukraine (amplifying former Polish MEP's claims). RF intends to amplify anti-Western sentiment from European politicians and undermine relationships between Western and Ukrainian leaders. RF intends to exploit the "pause" in negotiations by blaming European and Ukrainian leaders. RF intends to use highly inflammatory language (Zakharova: "Zelenskyy is killing you for Western money") to demonize Ukrainian leadership. RF IO, through milbloggers, is capable of discrediting UAF reporting on territorial losses. RF IO, through "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺," can spread disinformation about UAF unit commanders (Mariupol brigade officer). RF intends to use specific instances, like contrasting Ukrainian officials' children abroad with calls for duty, to generate internal discontent within Ukraine. RF intends to systematically frame Ukrainian actions against Russia as "terrorist war" to justify its military campaign and discredit UAF internationally. RF intends to leverage diplomatic summons (Germany-Russia ambassador) to frame NATO as hostile or to assert its own diplomatic standing. RF intends to actively exploit US domestic news (Charlie Kirk murder suspect apprehension, identification of suspect) for its IO narratives, implying connections to Ukraine/West or using it to deflect. "Два майора" messaging about "United Russia" candidates suggests an RF intent for internal critique or managing political narratives regarding regional elections. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники's message about a "ban on leaving the country" indicates an RF intent to control mobilization narratives and deter draft evasion. TASS intent to target dissenting voices like Dmitry Bykov demonstrates a persistent effort to control the information space regarding the conflict. TASS will continue to use economic reporting (e.g., housing construction) for domestic IO to project stability. TASS will continue to use internal financial policy (citizen fund blocking concerns) for public reassurance IO. Новости Москвы will continue using consumer-focused promotions (Alfa-Bank cashback) for normalcy IO.
  • Sustained Probing of NATO Air Defenses with Hybrid Warfare Elements: RF intends to continue launching UAVs into or towards NATO member states' airspace to test response thresholds and sow discord, escalating hybrid actions based on perceived successes. This is further reinforced by the "West-2025" exercises and the demonstration of naval power projection. The deployment of the Northern Fleet for "West-2025" indicates an intent to project power and test NATO's maritime responses, including in the Arctic Ocean. The Pacific Fleet exercises further demonstrate RF's intent to project naval power across multiple strategic regions. The commencement of "West-2025" exercises with strategic assets (bombers, submarines) indicates a strong intent for strategic power projection and signaling to NATO.
  • Maintain Internal Stability and Project Strength: RF will continue internal propaganda to maintain domestic stability, projecting military strength, accountability, and normalcy. This includes promoting military successes and leveraging major exercises for internal morale, while downplaying the impact of UAF deep strikes (e.g., Smolensk denial). This also includes using legal actions against corrupt officials to project accountability and promoting domestic political events. The FSB action against the alleged UAF financier reinforces this intent. Promoting electoral processes (e.g., Moscow voting centers, polling stations named after war participants) is part of this. Celebrating law enforcement efforts (Habarovskiy Kray Police) is part of projecting stability. RF will also use IO to counter narratives about youth militarization. RF will also use military chaplains to support and motivate troops. RF intends to use economic policy (interest rate cuts, consumer loan reductions, Sberbank deposit rate cuts) to stabilize its economy and project normalcy. RF intends to use internal security operations (Solovyev assassination plot) to reassure the population and demonize Ukraine. The criminal case against Andrei Tyurin aligns with projecting accountability within the defense sector. Opening new schools (Bryansk) is a domestic IO effort to project normalcy and development. The State Duma's vape proposal indicates an intent to address domestic social issues. Aksakov's statement regarding further interest rate reductions projects economic confidence and stability. "Север.Реалии" reporting on the Peterburg artist's administrative arrest suggests an RF intent to maintain control over dissenting voices, even if the method is clumsy. TASS reporting on the Elbrus cable car accident, while civilian, serves to demonstrate neutral reporting and maintain an appearance of normalcy.
  • Leverage Diplomatic Openings: RF intends to exploit any perceived cracks in Western unity or new diplomatic initiatives to improve its international standing or secure concessions, including by leveraging sanctions relief and economic relations. RF will closely monitor new EU and British sanctions, and new sanctions against its defense sector, while attempting to mitigate their impact. RF will also seek to counter German efforts to implement stricter visa restrictions. US pressure on G7 countries to impose tariffs on Indian and Chinese oil purchases could significantly impact RF's oil revenues and thus its long-term sustainment. RF intends to manage the narrative around the "pause" in negotiations, portraying itself as open to dialogue while blaming external actors.

• Courses of Action (COA):

  • MLCOA 1 (Ground Offensive Reinforcement & Consolidation - Pokrovsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Lyman, Sumy, Konstantinovka, Dobropillya, Novopavlovsk): RF will continue to intensify ground offensives on the Pokrovsk axis, attempting to clear UAF from urban areas of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and consolidate gains towards Myrnograd. Simultaneously, RF will commit significant forces to consolidate and expand the new salient in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye, Novomykolaivka area), aiming to complete the encirclement of Velykomykhailivka, and continue advances towards Novoivanivka. RF will exploit the claimed control of Kolodyazi and Kirovsk and continue advances on the Krasny Liman direction, with a focus on Predtechino and Pleshcheyevka to enable further advance on Konstantinovka. RF's 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment and other units will initiate or intensify offensive operations on the Sumy front (Yunakovka area) to draw UAF reserves, supported by army aviation, including "Anvar" special forces-led attacks. High-tempo probing attacks will continue on the Kupyansk and South Donetsk axes to fix UAF reserves and prevent redeployments. RF will continue employing snipers for counter-UAV operations and utilize fiber-optic FPV drones for precision strikes against UAF logistics. RF will integrate newly delivered and modernized armored vehicles into these ground operations and continue offensive operations in the Novopavlovsk direction. RF will also use FAB guided aerial bombs on UAF rear positions (Druzhkivka). RF FPV drone units (e.g., "Sparta" battalion) will continue to target UAF UAV control points and communications. RF ground units will continue combat training, including with AGS-17 Plamya. RF will continue active drone support for ground advances. RF will increasingly use FPV "Zhduny" drones for ambushes. The confirmed start of "West-2025" exercises will likely coincide with or support some level of offensive or deterrent activity, possibly involving multi-branch deployments. RF will also continue cross-border interdiction operations, particularly on the Bryansk-Chernihiv direction. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • MLCOA 2 (Sustained Air/Missile Campaign Targeting Critical Infrastructure & Probing Homeland Defense): RF will conduct multiple waves of UAV strikes (30-60 drones per wave) and widespread guided aerial bomb (KAB) attacks, prioritizing Ukrainian energy, industrial, and logistical infrastructure, with continued ballistic missile threats from the north and Kursk Oblast, including against residential areas (e.g., Sumy Oblast, Zaporizhzhia, Leningrad Oblast, Druzhkivka). RF will aim to inflict maximum damage and civilian casualties in an attempt to erode morale. RF will also continue to conduct UAV incursions into Russian territory, likely for reconnaissance and to test UAF deep strike capabilities, while showcasing its enhanced air defense responses (e.g., claiming 221 UAVs downed) and amplifying claims of civilian casualties (e.g., Belgorod, Bryansk) but will attempt to redirect blame for collateral damage from its own systems (Belgorod Pantsir incident). RF will prioritize strikes on UAF UAV C2 and communications (Starlink) and artillery ammunition storage. RF will continue to test new drone systems, including those designed to evade EW. RF will also target UAF long-range missile production capabilities, as evidenced by Zakharova's statements. RF will likely continue to conduct limited drone attacks on sensitive targets within Russia (e.g., Smolensk NPP ancillary facilities) to demonstrate UAF capabilities to its domestic audience and to justify its own actions, while maintaining claims of no significant damage. RF will frame UAF deep strikes against sensitive Russian targets like nuclear power plants as "nuclear terrorism" for propaganda. RF will likely continue to downplay damage to sensitive targets like the Smolensk NPP via official channels like Росатом. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • MLCOA 3 (Escalated Hybrid Operations and Information Warfare with Border Provocations): RF will continue to probe NATO airspace with smaller, coordinated groups of UAVs to test response thresholds and identify vulnerabilities. This will be accompanied by an an aggressive, multi-layered information campaign to deny responsibility for incursions (e.g., Poland drone damage pre-existing, Smolensk no damage), blame Ukraine (especially for civilian casualties in border regions like Bryansk, Belgorod, Kharkiv civilian vehicle), mock NATO's response, and amplify perceived disunity within the alliance (e.g., Trump's comments on Poland). RF will leverage the "West-2025" exercises for a show of force and internal propaganda, potentially staging border provocations involving Belarusian forces to maintain pressure on Poland and Lithuania, and projecting naval power in the Baltic/Barents Seas via Northern Fleet deployments (including Arctic Ocean) and in the Pacific via Pacific Fleet exercises. RF will also proactively frame battlefield developments (e.g., "looting" in Krasny Liman, "liberation" of Novopetrovskoye) and employ highly inflammatory narratives (e.g., TCC priest incident, SBU priest arrest, Myrotvorets listing of children/Kurtukova, Kuzminov's mother, father of murdered Ukrainian, blaming UAF for disrupting diplomacy, discrediting Patriot aid, Polish drone incident staging claims, derogatory posts about Western leaders, Danish rocket fuel production, Solovyev assassination plot, "Zelenskyy killing for Western money," Orban's criticism of von der Leyen, Zakharova's "bloody monster" Kyiv, UAF commander from Mariupol brigade) to control the narrative and demonize Ukrainian authorities. RF will also use internal security operations (e.g., FSB Klimovsk, Solovyev assassination plot, Tyurin corruption case) for propaganda and promote internal electoral processes (naming polling stations after war participants). RF will continue to leverage international events (e.g., Brazil, Trump's potential Uzbekistan visit) and blame UAF for disrupting diplomacy (Russia-US summit). RF will also actively work to discredit Western military aid (e.g., Danish rocket fuel production, "inoperable Patriot" claims) and counter Ukrainian IO efforts, including claims of "fake" videos. RF will continue to use external political statements (Philippot, Orban) to support its IO and attempt to undermine Western unity. RF will continue to use religious themes to boost military morale. RF will leverage the "pause" in negotiations by blaming European and Ukrainian leaders. RF will intensify propaganda efforts against Ukrainian officials' alleged hypocrisy (e.g., children abroad vs. calls for duty). RF will systematically frame UAF actions as "terrorist war" against Russian civilians. RF will leverage diplomatic actions (Germany summoning ambassador) to reinforce its IO narratives. RF IO will exploit US domestic news (Charlie Kirk murder suspect apprehension, identification of suspect Tyler Robinson) to further its narratives. RF IO will use internal political discussions (United Russia candidates) for narrative control. RF IO will use mobilization narratives (ban on leaving country) to control internal population. RF IO will target dissenting voices (Dmitry Bykov). RF will continue to use economic reporting (e.g., housing construction) and financial policy (citizen fund blocking) for domestic IO to project stability and reassurance. RF will also use consumer-focused promotions (Alfa-Bank cashback for train tickets) for normalcy IO. (Confidence: HIGH)

2.2. Recent tactical changes or adaptations (Confidence: HIGH)

• Expanded Offensive Zones and Tactics: RF is demonstrating an expanded scope of ground operations, with new claims of advances in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye, Novomykolaivka) and the reported capture of Kolodyazi and Kirovsk on the Krasny Liman direction, a significant shift from traditional axes. This indicates an adaptation to probe new areas or divert UAF resources. New offensive directions are observed on the Rubtsovsk axis and now explicitly on the Sumy front (Yunakovka), with reported use of "Anvar" special forces for drone-assisted convoy hunting. The use of motorcycle assaults by DSHV, if widespread, represents a tactical adaptation for rapid, light-infantry movement in certain terrains or for shock assault. The reported breakthrough near Predtechino and Pleshcheyevka indicates an adaptation to overcome fortified UAF positions on the Konstantinovka axis. Sustained advances in the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd agglomeration are confirmed. Army aviation is now observed providing direct support for assault units on specific axes (e.g., Iziumskyi district, Zaporizhzhia). RF milbloggers' long-term projections (Odesa/Mykolaiv by 2027) indicate a sustained, adaptive strategic intent. Tactical map activity in the Novopavlovsk direction (including Novoivanivka) further indicates adaptive shifts in operational focus. RF is also using FAB guided aerial bombs in rear areas (Druzhkivka). RF is continuing to conduct combat training for ground units in the SVO zone, including with AGS-17 Plamya. RF is adapting drone operations to support ground advances (e.g., Hryshyno). RF ground forces are adapting tactics to evade UAF drone hunter-killer operations (e.g., hiding from drones). RF is demonstrating a sustained and self-assessed high pace of offensive operations (up to 40 km² per day). MoD Russia's summary of strikes from 6-12 September confirms a sustained, adaptive strategy of targeting critical Ukrainian infrastructure and military assets. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video provides further evidence of adaptive RF combat tactics, using drones for surveillance and targeting in various terrains. "Сливочный каприз" video shows continued adaptive use of drones for artillery targeting in urban combat (Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk). "Воин DV" video confirms adaptive RF FPV drone operations for engaging light vehicles and personnel. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights RF's increasing use of FPV "Zhduny" (ambush) drones, indicating a specialized FPV drone tactic. "Два майора" video acknowledging donations suggests an adaptation to rely on public support for equipment. Colonelcassad's video on "4th auto column" indicates an adaptive, volunteer-driven effort for vehicle procurement and modification for combat use. "Воин DV"'s video from Zaporizhzhia demonstrates adaptive efforts in casualty evacuation under fire, an essential battlefield adaptation. "Старше Эдды" video on reactive artillery indicates continued adaptation and use of this fire support. "Операция Z" video on Bryansk-Chernihiv border interdiction demonstrates an adaptive focus on cross-border operations to degrade UAF presence.
• Enhanced Tactical Air Defense and Counter-UAV: RF is adapting its short-range air defense to protect offensive axes and is improving counter-UAV capabilities through modernized systems and drone-on-drone combat. RF is also using armored vehicles for counter-UAV C2 strikes. RF homeland air defense is demonstrating reactive and intensified responses to deep strikes (e.g., Moscow, Leningrad, Rostov), resulting in significant flight disruptions. The latest UAF Air Force report of 33 downed UAVs indicates an ongoing, persistent, and successful RF drone strategy, even with lower numbers than previous mass strikes. RF snipers are being employed as an effective counter-UAV measure against heavy strike drones. RF is also actively targeting UAF UAV C2 and communications infrastructure (Starlink), and demonstrating drone-based precision strikes against UAF artillery ammunition stores. RF claims of 221 UAVs downed overnight, if accurate, indicate a significant adaptation and improvement in overall air defense posture. The Pskov Governor moving information to a state messenger indicates an adaptive approach to information control and public response. The Pskov airport lifting restrictions indicates an adaptive response to normalize civilian operations after deep strikes. RF IO is also adapting to shift blame for collateral damage from its own air defenses (e.g., Belgorod Pantsir incident). RF's "Sparta" battalion is demonstrating adaptive FPV drone tactics to destroy UAF UAV C2 and communication infrastructure. The reported testing of a "heavy drone evading EW" by RF indicates an adaptive strategy to counter UAF EW capabilities and improve drone survivability. RF is making significant investments in the development and display of drone and counter-drone technologies, indicating adaptive procurement and R&D. RF's ability to respond to and mitigate damage from UAF drone attacks on sensitive targets like the Smolensk NPP, as reported by TASS, demonstrates adaptive protective measures for critical infrastructure. Росатом's statement regarding minimal damage to Smolensk NPP suggests an adaptive PR strategy to downplay impact.
• Expanded Role for Internal Security Forces: Rosgvardia has been armed with tank/anti-tank guns, SPGs, and MLRS, and has executed over 60,000 fire missions, integrating these internal security forces into direct combat operations. The FSB detention of an alleged UAF financier and the alleged Solovyev assassination plot demonstrates an adaptation of internal security efforts to counter perceived domestic support for Ukraine and leverage for propaganda.
• Persistent Urban Combat Focus: RF continues to adapt to protracted, high-intensity urban warfare in areas like Pokrovsk and Vovchansk, employing specialized units and FPV drones.
• Increased Depth of Hybrid Operations into NATO: The deliberate, large-scale drone incursions into Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania demonstrate an adaptation in RF's hybrid warfare, testing NATO's response thresholds with greater audacity. This has led to reactive airspace and border closures by NATO members. RF milbloggers are adapting their narrative to counter Polish/NATO claims (e.g., pre-existing damage, former Polish MEP's accusations). The "West-2025" exercises further demonstrate a large-scale, multi-domain adaptation for strategic projection, including Northern Fleet deployments (including Arctic Ocean) and Pacific Fleet exercises. RF is adapting its IO to counter Western aid (Danish rocket fuel production). The commencement of "West-2025" exercises with strategic assets (bombers, submarines) highlights a significant adaptive display of multi-domain power projection. Germany summoning the Russian ambassador for the drone incident in Poland indicates an adaptive diplomatic response from NATO members. The arrival of 38 US M1A2 Abrams tanks in Poland represents a significant NATO adaptation to reinforce its eastern flank.
• Youth Military Indoctrination and Religious Mobilization: RF is integrating military training and patriotic education at a young age to prepare a future cadre of soldiers. The promotion of religious processions with nationalistic overtones (e.g., Alexander Nevsky in St. Petersburg) indicates an adaptation to leverage religious sentiment for morale and political consolidation. The use of children handling firearms in propaganda videos demonstrates a further adaptation of youth indoctrination efforts. RF is also adapting its IO to counter Ukrainian narratives about this (e.g., "fake" video claims). RF is also integrating war commemoration into civilian life by naming polling stations after war participants. RF is actively using military chaplains to support and motivate troops in combat zones, adapting to use religious means for morale. RF's IO contrasting Ukrainian officials' children abroad with calls for duty is an adaptive approach to sow internal discord.
• Intensified Blame-Shifting for Civilian Casualties and Denial of Damage: RF has adapted its IO to rapidly attribute civilian casualties in its border regions (Belgorod, Bryansk) to UAF "terrorist attacks," seeking to justify further aggression and rally internal support, even using passenger vehicles as targets for this narrative (e.g., Bryansk minibus, Kharkiv civilian vehicle). RF is also actively discrediting Polish/NATO claims of drone damage by attributing it to prior natural events, and attempting to outright deny damage from UAF deep strikes (e.g., Smolensk). RF IO is also adapting to shift blame for collateral damage from its own air defenses (e.g., Belgorod Pantsir incident). Maria Zakharova's statements exemplify RF's adaptive strategy to systematically accuse Ukraine of "terrorist war" to justify its actions.
• Adapted Deep Strike Response: RF demonstrates a significantly adapted defensive response to UAF deep strikes, reporting a high number of downed UAVs (221 overnight) and rapid damage control at critical infrastructure (Primorsk port), but still experiencing significant disruption to civilian operations (Pulkovo airport), though some airport restrictions are now being lifted.
• Large-Scale Combined Arms Training: RF demonstrates a significant tactical adaptation for large-scale combined arms training through the "West-2025" exercises, indicating a focus on enhancing operational readiness and potentially showcasing new doctrine, including naval component with Northern Fleet deployments (including Arctic Ocean) and Pacific Fleet exercises. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video confirms the adaptive strategy of large-scale, multi-branch "West-2025" exercises.
• IO Pre-emptive Narrative Control and Demonization: RF IO has adapted to proactively frame UAF actions, such as alleging UAF "looting" in Krasny Liman in preparation for withdrawal, and employing highly inflammatory narratives to demonize Ukrainian authorities (e.g., TCC priest incident, SBU priest arrest, Myrotvorets listing of children/Kurtukova, Kuzminov's mother, father of murdered Ukrainian not allowed to leave) to control the narrative and demonize Ukrainian authorities. RF is also leveraging international media narratives to sow discord within NATO (e.g., Trump's comments on Poland, former Polish MEP's accusations) and is promoting internal electoral processes (Moscow voting centers, polling stations named after war participants) for stability. RF is also actively using non-Ukrainian international political events to push its anti-Western narrative (e.g., Bolsonaro sentencing, Trump's potential Uzbekistan visit). RF is actively using narratives to discredit defectors (Kuzminov) and dissenting cultural figures (Pugacheva). RF is also adapting its IO to blame UAF for disrupting international diplomacy (Russia-US summit). RF IO is adapting to discredit Western military aid as "inoperable" and to blame UAF for drone incursions into NATO territory. RF IO uses external political statements to support its narratives and attempts to undermine Western unity and leadership through derogatory personal attacks. RF is adapting its IO to frame the "pause" in negotiations to its advantage, blaming European and Ukrainian leaders. RF is using internal security operations (Solovyev assassination plot) for IO purposes. RF is adapting to counter Western sanctions by framing them as illegal. RF is using highly inflammatory rhetoric from official sources (Zakharova) to delegitimize Ukrainian leadership. RF IO adapts to amplify statements from figures like Hungarian PM Orban to highlight perceived divisions within the EU. RF IO escalates inflammatory rhetoric regarding the Charlie Kirk assassination to demonize Kyiv. "Воин DV" sarcastically comments on Ukraine's delayed admission of territorial losses, implying UAF information manipulation. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reports on the "pause" in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, reinforcing the Kremlin's narrative. Colonelcassad reports the FSB detention of a Russian citizen in Klimovsk for allegedly financing UAF, which RF will use for internal security and propaganda. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares graphic combat footage, likely to demonstrate RF combat effectiveness or the brutality of war from their perspective. "Рыбарь" posts about "Prince on a white horse?" possibly a sarcastic comment on high-profile visits or a general IO message. AV БогомаZ posts about opening a new school in Bryansk, a civilian IO effort to project normalcy and development. "Операция Z" and "Военкор Котенок" amplify the claim of UAF attacking the Smolensk NPP, framing it as "nuclear terrorism," a severe escalation of RF IO. Maria Zakharova's statements are amplified by TASS, furthering RF's diplomatic IO. Colonelcassad's comment on the "fool" Vice-Mayor of Riga reinforces anti-Western sentiment. TASS reports Maria Zakharova's statements from a briefing, including criticisms of the West, indicating ongoing diplomatic IO. ТАСС reports on comments from the Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Financial Markets, Aksakov, stating that further reductions in the key interest rate are possible by the end of 2025, which will be used to project economic stability. Операция Z (RusVesna) shares video and images with the caption "Дети «для войны» и дети «для Европы»," contrasting statements by Ukrainian officials with the perceived lifestyle of their children abroad, a clear RF IO effort to expose alleged hypocrisy and sow discontent within Ukraine. Maria Zakharova (Басурин о главном) uses her official platform to accuse the "Kyiv regime" of conducting "terrorist war against peaceful residents of Russia," citing specific incidents in various regions, reinforcing RF's narrative for both domestic and international audiences. ТАСС reports that the German MFA summoned the Russian Ambassador regarding the drone incident in Poland, which RF will use to frame NATO as overly aggressive or to project its own diplomatic strength by having its ambassador summoned. TASS reports Trump stating the suspect in the Charlie Kirk murder is "very likely" in custody, leveraging US domestic news for IO. "Военкор Котенок" amplifies Trump's statement on the Charlie Kirk suspect. Alex Parker Returns and Оперативний ЗСУ also amplify Trump's statement on the Charlie Kirk suspect, further disseminating this US domestic news in the RF IO space. Alex Parker Returns shares a video featuring Donald Trump discussing the death penalty for the Kirk suspect, further amplifying this narrative. TASS also reports Trump hopes for the death penalty for Kirk's killer, reinforcing the RF IO focus on this event. Рыбарь shares a map titled "Cocaine Bridge," which, while not directly military, may allude to illicit activities or narratives for IO. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares a photo message about the "First ban on leaving the country due to the electronic register of subpoenas," indicating a new RF IO narrative on mobilization and internal control. ТАСС reports that Dmitry Bykov (recognized as a foreign agent and extremist in RF) is accused of spreading false information about RF shelling of Kharkiv, indicating RF IO targeting dissenting voices and controlling narratives about its actions in Ukraine. "Два майора" shares photo messages and text expressing concern about "United Russia" candidates in regional elections, specifically mentioning issues with diaspora leaders, which may represent an internal RF IO critique or concern. TASS identifying the Charlie Kirk killer suspect as Tyler Robinson indicates an adaptive approach to using US domestic news for IO, providing specific details to make the narrative more concrete. TASS shares a video of Nabiullina discussing housing construction growth and prices since 2020, an adaptive use of economic data for domestic IO to project stability and growth, albeit with underlying challenges. Новости Москвы advertising Alfa-Bank cashback for train tickets demonstrates adaptive use of consumer-focused IO for normalcy.
• Military Production and Modernization: RF is actively modernizing its armored vehicle fleet, with new deliveries of BMP-3s and modernized BMD-2s, indicating a continued focus on improving ground combat capabilities. Japan's sanctions on SEZ Alabuga indicate RF's significant investment in domestic UAV production.
• Economic Adaptation: The Central Bank's interest rate cuts represent an adaptive measure to manage economic pressures under sanctions. VTB's rate reductions for consumer loans, mortgages, and auto loans reflect a coordinated economic response to the Central Bank's policy, aiming to stimulate domestic consumption and maintain economic stability. Sberbank's decision to lower deposit rates from September 15 is another adaptive measure in RF's economic policy. Aksakov's statement regarding further interest rate reductions shows an adaptive economic strategy to maintain confidence. TASS reports on Central Bank rate reductions and Nabiullina's statements indicate an adaptive strategy for economic messaging. TASS reports Nabiullina discussing housing construction and prices, which, while positive, also highlights a challenge of affordability, showing an adaptive approach to reporting complex economic data. TASS reports the Central Bank is concerned about unsubstantiated blocking of citizen funds, an adaptive response to public sentiment regarding financial stability.
• Internal Accountability: The criminal case against Andrei Tyurin indicates an adaptive response to corruption within the defense sector, potentially aimed at improving efficiency or maintaining internal discipline.
• Domestic Policy Adaptation: State Duma's consideration to equate vapes to narcotics indicates an adaptive focus on domestic social issues beyond the direct conflict. The temporary unavailability of Alfa-Bank's mobile app, if due to technical issues, shows a potential vulnerability in civilian IT infrastructure that RF would need to adapt to protect. "Север.Реалии" reporting on a Peterburg artist's administrative arrest in Vyborg suggests an adaptive approach to dealing with dissent, even if cumbersome. TASS reports on the Elbrus cable car accident, which, while a civilian incident, shows a responsive adaptive approach to reporting domestic non-conflict related news.

2.3. Logistics and sustainment status (Confidence: MEDIUM)

RF continues to demonstrate the ability to sustain multi-axis ground offensives and massed air attacks, suggesting sufficient, albeit strained, logistical capacity. The new Dnipropetrovsk salient (Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye, Novomykolaivka), advances on Krasny Liman/Kirovsk, Novopavlovsk (including Novoivanivka) and potential Sumy offensive will place additional demands. The call for drone donations from "Два майора" indicates a potential shortfall in organic drone supply for some units. High consumption of artillery ammunition by Rosgvardia requires robust logistical support. UAF's successful destruction of a bridge near Nova Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, represents a localized logistical disruption for RF. The re-opening of Krasnodar airport may improve civilian logistics, with indirect implications for military flow. Civilian/volunteer support for specific RF ground units (e.g., 135th Assault Battalion) indicates reliance on non-state supply chains. The Russian Central Bank raising the dollar exchange rate above ₽85 could indicate growing economic strain, impacting long-term sustainment. RF claims over half of UAF-supplied drones are defective, an IO narrative that also highlights the critical nature of drone logistics.

• The UAF drone attack on the oil depot in Smolensk Oblast and Primorsk port in Leningrad Oblast represents a potentially significant disruption to RF energy and naval logistics, especially if damage is extensive and prolonged. The specific mention of a LUKOIL facility implies targeting of a major energy company. However, the Smolensk Governor's claim of no damage directly contradicts this, creating an intelligence gap and requiring further verification. The alleged strike on the Transneft oil pumping station in Vladimir Oblast, if verified, would represent a significant logistical disruption in a deeper RF region. RBC-Ukraine's report of suspended oil shipments from Primorsk indicates a significant logistical impact. TASS reports a UAF drone attacked the Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant, hitting ancillary facilities. This incident, while not affecting safety, highlights a security breach and potential for logistical strain if critical infrastructure protection needs to be ramped up. Росатом's report of only minor damage (fence, admin building) at Smolensk NPP suggests less impact on critical infrastructure/logistics than previously implied. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno's BDA on Transneft oil pumping station "Vtorovo" (technological overpass, pipelines, cables hit) indicates a direct hit on a crucial part of energy infrastructure, suggesting a significant logistical impact if verified.
• Over 30 flights cancelled/delayed at Pulkovo Airport indicate continued disruption to civilian air travel in Northwestern Russia, suggesting broader logistical impact due to security concerns and potential resource diversion for air defense. The resumption of flights at Pulkovo (departures) and full lifting of restrictions at Ivanovo, Yaroslavl, and Pskov indicates a partial restoration of civilian logistical flow, but the impact of previous disruptions remains. TASS reports Aeroflot has opened ticket sales for direct flights from Krasnodar for international programs, further normalizing air travel and logistics from this hub.
• The "West-2025" exercises will place significant logistical demands on both RF and Belarusian forces, potentially straining existing supply chains for fuel, ammunition, and other consumables. Northern Fleet deployments (including Arctic Ocean) further add to this logistical burden. The Pacific Fleet exercises further increase logistical demands across multiple RF military districts. The confirmed commencement of "West-2025" exercises (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video) means these logistical demands are now active.
• The Russian General Prosecutor's attempt to seize 79 billion rubles in assets from a former mayor's family could indicate efforts to consolidate state resources or address corruption, which might indirectly impact economic stability and long-term sustainment. The increased bribery charge against a former Deputy Shoigu could also be part of efforts to address internal corruption or consolidate power, with potential indirect impacts on logistical efficiency and trust within the military-industrial complex. The criminal case against former RF Ministry of Defense military representation head, Andrei Tyurin, for abuse of power in state defense orders, further indicates ongoing efforts to address corruption within the military-industrial complex, which can impact overall logistical efficiency.
• The reported traffic jam towards Khartsyzk involving a military-style truck suggests local logistical disruption, potentially due to an accident, increased security, or mass movement that could strain road networks.
• TASS reports increased cost for Chinese auto service in Russia which, while civilian, may indicate broader economic and supply chain pressures affecting RF's ability to maintain equipment.
• New EU and British sanctions, including specific sanctions against RF defense sector companies, will further strain RF's ability to procure critical components, particularly for high-tech military applications, and will affect companies from China, India, Turkey, and Thailand, potentially impacting RF's grey market supply chains. The UK's targeted sanctions against RF's "shadow fleet" and suppliers of electronics/chemicals for missile production will directly impact RF's ability to sustain its long-range strike capabilities. German efforts for stricter visa restrictions may impact RF's access to Western markets indirectly. US pressure on G7 countries to impose tariffs on Indian and Chinese oil purchases could significantly impact RF's oil revenues and thus its long-term sustainment. Japan's sanctions on SEZ Alabuga (UAV production) directly impact RF's military-industrial complex and its ability to sustain drone production. The upcoming 19th package of EU sanctions will likely add further strain to RF's economic and logistical sustainment. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА's gratitude for UK sanctions highlights the continued pressure on RF logistics and sustainment.
• The RF drone strike on a UAF 155mm charge storage site, if verified, directly impacts UAF artillery sustainment and logistics.
• The "Rubizh" brigade's fundraising for destroyed equipment indicates localized UAF logistical shortfalls or combat losses.
• The delivery of new BMP-3s and modernized BMD-2s indicates that despite sanctions, RF's military-industrial complex retains the capacity to produce and upgrade armored vehicles, contributing to sustained ground force capabilities.
• "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" sharing videos of a UAF vehicle ("Techik") undergoing repair indicates ongoing maintenance and sustainment efforts, and the need for spare parts. RBC-Україна's fundraising for vehicles for the 153rd OMBR further highlights ongoing UAF logistical needs. RBC-Ukraine reporting on rising food prices in Ukraine (basic products up a third) indicates economic pressures that could impact civilian morale and long-term sustainment capacity.
• The report on the ex-commander in Lviv Oblast suspected of million-dollar damages during army bed procurement indicates potential corruption issues within UAF logistics, which, if widespread, could undermine sustainment and morale.
• The Russian Central Bank lowering interest rates could stimulate the economy but also indicates potential underlying inflationary pressures, which could impact long-term sustainment if not managed effectively. VTB's rate reductions for consumer loans, mortgages, and auto loans reflect a coordinated economic response to the Central Bank's policy, aiming to stimulate domestic credit, which could indirectly support economic activity and tax revenues for military sustainment. Sberbank's decision to lower deposit rates is another adaptive measure in RF's economic policy. Aksakov's statement regarding further rate reductions suggests ongoing confidence in managing economic conditions. TASS reports on the Central Bank's rate decisions and Nabiullina's statements are part of RF's economic messaging on sustainment.
• The International Bobsleigh and Skeleton Federation's decision to exclude Russians from Olympic qualification, while not directly military, may impact national pride and resources allocated to sports programs, indirectly affecting state priorities.
• The temporary unavailability of Alfa-Bank's mobile app, if due to technical issues, could indicate a vulnerability in civilian IT infrastructure that RF would need to adapt to protect, potentially impacting financial and economic stability. "Два майора" video and "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" donation appeals confirm reliance on civilian donations for equipment and sustainment, indicating potential gaps in official supply lines. Colonelcassad's "4th auto column" video further reinforces the role of volunteer efforts in RF vehicle supply, suggesting official logistics are insufficient. TASS shares a video of Nabiullina discussing housing construction and prices, which highlights significant growth but also doubling prices, indicating a mixed logistical picture related to the housing sector's ability to support personnel. TASS reports the Central Bank is concerned about unsubstantiated blocking of citizen funds, suggesting internal financial logistical challenges or administrative issues that could impact public trust and economic activity. Новости Москвы advertises Alfa-Bank cashback for train tickets, which promotes domestic travel and indirectly eases pressure on other transport systems, but is not direct military logistics. The arrival of 38 US M1A2 Abrams tanks in Poland represents a significant logistical inflow for NATO, enhancing their defensive capabilities.

2.4. Command and control effectiveness (Confidence: HIGH)

RF Command and Control (C2) demonstrates high effectiveness in coordinating multi-domain operations. This includes multi-domain synchronization of air attacks, ground offensives (including new axes), and hybrid operations. RF C2 shows adaptive targeting capabilities, rapidly prioritizing high-value targets (e.g., UAF UAV command posts, critical infrastructure, residential areas, Starlink antennas, UAF artillery ammunition stores). Ground C2 is effective for offensive, defensive, and counter-offensive actions (e.g., Rubtsovsk, Udachnoye, Yunakovka, Krasny Liman, Kirovsk, Predtechino/Pleshcheyevka, Pokrovsk-Myrnograd, Borovska Andriyivka, Novomykolaivka, Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye, Novoivanivka, Hryshyno), including "Anvar" special forces-led drone-assisted operations. Tactical C2 is effective in directing drone assets for reconnaissance and precision strikes, including against camouflaged UAF transport and personnel in combat zones (Polohy direction). Information Warfare (IO) is highly integrated into strategic and operational C2, allowing for rapid exploitation of events for propaganda and disinformation, including pre-emptive narrative control and the demonization of Ukrainian authorities. RF C2 is effective in managing internal political processes and using them for IO, including leveraging religious events and electoral events (naming polling stations after war participants). Emerging drone C2 capabilities are evident with special UAV detachments and control centers. RF also demonstrates decentralized tactical initiative under overall strategic guidance.

• Robust homeland air defense C2 is evident in the successful repulsion of mass drone attacks over Rostov and Leningrad Oblasts, indicating effective coordination of detection, tracking, and interception, despite significant civilian flight disruptions. The claims of 221 UAVs downed overnight, if accurate, would reflect highly effective C2. RF C2 also demonstrates the ability to quickly restore civilian air traffic after drone incidents (e.g., Pskov, Krasnodar). RF's C2 demonstrated effective response to the Smolensk NPP drone attack, as reported by TASS, quickly assessing and reporting no impact on safety. The rapid amplification of the Smolensk NPP attack by milbloggers and state media ("nuclear terrorism") demonstrates effective C2 over IO messaging and rapid narrative framing. Росатом's statement implies effective C2 in managing crisis communication regarding sensitive infrastructure.
• Rapid response naval/industrial C2 was demonstrated in extinguishing the fire at Primorsk port, indicating effective emergency response protocols.
• RF C2 is effective in planning, coordinating, and executing complex military maneuvers across multiple domains and geographical areas, as seen in the "West-2025" exercises, including Northern Fleet deployments (including Arctic Ocean) and Pacific Fleet exercises. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video confirms effective C2 in coordinating multi-branch "West-2025" exercises with strategic assets.
• The internal investigation and increased charges against a former Deputy Shoigu suggest ongoing C2 oversight and accountability mechanisms, albeit with potential political undertones. The criminal case against Andrei Tyurin (former RF MoD military representation head) further highlights RF C2's focus on maintaining discipline and accountability in defense procurement.
• Effective C2 is demonstrated by the reported destruction of multiple UAF UAV control posts and a Starlink antenna by RF Southern Grouping artillery, and the RF 68th ORB's destruction of a UAF communications antenna/Starlink. RF "Sparta" battalion's destruction of two UAF UAV control points and a communication antenna further reinforces effective RF counter-C2.
• The FSB operation in Klimovsk and the alleged Solovyev assassination plot demonstrates RF C2 over internal security and counter-intelligence operations and the SBU operation in Sumy regarding the UOC-MP priest indicates an effective UAF counter-intelligence C2.
• The Pskov Governor moving information to a state messenger indicates centralized control over information dissemination, reflecting effective C2 in managing crisis communication.
• RF demonstrates C2 effectiveness in coordinating responses to Western sanctions, as shown by the Central Bank's interest rate cuts.
• TASS and Alex Parker Returns' swift reporting on the Solovyev assassination plot highlights RF C2 over immediate IO response to internal security events.
• The coordinated reporting by RF state media and milbloggers on Peskov's "pause" in negotiations demonstrates effective C2 over a unified IO message.
• The Bryansk Governor's posts on school openings, while civilian, demonstrate C2 over local civilian initiatives for domestic IO purposes. Aksakov's statement regarding interest rates indicates coordinated C2 messaging on economic policy. Maria Zakharova's statements demonstrate effective C2 over RF MFA messaging to frame the conflict. RF C2 is effective in rapidly leveraging US domestic news (Charlie Kirk murder suspect apprehension, identification of suspect Tyler Robinson) for its IO. "Два майора" internal critique of "United Russia" candidates indicates a C2 function for internal political messaging or feedback. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники's message about a "ban on leaving the country" is a clear example of RF C2 over mobilization-related information. TASS targeting Dmitry Bykov demonstrates RF C2 over media control and narrative enforcement. TASS shares a video of Nabiullina discussing housing construction and prices, which, while positive, also highlights a challenge of affordability, showing effective C2 in managing complex economic messaging. TASS reports the Central Bank is concerned about unsubstantiated blocking of citizen funds, indicating effective C2 in responding to public financial concerns. Новости Москвы advertising Alfa-Bank cashback for train tickets is an example of C2 coordinating consumer-focused IO. The Coordination Staff for POWs (UAF) is holding a meeting, indicating effective C2 for managing POW support and family engagement. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing UAF '3rd Army Corps' tactical movements and POW interaction implies effective UAF C2 at the small unit level. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА sharing video of a meeting with Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen demonstrates effective UAF C2 over diplomatic messaging and international relations. STERNENKO video of UAF BAS Fenix unit shows effective UAF C2 for drone-based logistics interdiction. РБК-Україна reporting on DBR investigation into MP Shevchenko demonstrates effective UAF C2 for transparency and anti-corruption. Олександр Вілкул sharing messages of "Life Continues!" shows effective UAF C2 over regional morale-boosting efforts. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational information as of 16:00, 12.09.2025, demonstrating effective C2 in regular, transparent reporting of battlefield status.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian force posture and readiness (Confidence: HIGH)

UAF maintains a resilient defensive posture, successfully repelling 130 RF attacks across all major axes in the last 24 hours. UAF drone operators are demonstrating tactical effectiveness against RF personnel, vehicles, and logistics, with verified success in targeting RF ground forces (e.g., BMD-3) and infrastructure (e.g., bridge destruction). Ukrainian air defenses achieved a 94% interception rate (62 of 66 UAVs) against a significant RF air attack in the previous wave, and shot down/suppressed 33 of 40 UAVs in the latest wave, demonstrating continued effectiveness. UAF continues to demonstrate asymmetric warfare capabilities through resistance movements like "ATESH" and successful deep strikes on RF territory and naval assets (e.g., Project MPSV07 vessel, Smolensk oil depot, Luhansk ammunition depot, Primorsk port vessel and pumping station, Transneft oil pumping station in Vladimir Oblast). UAF is actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to enhance international cooperation and air defense capabilities, including sharing expertise on countering Shaheds and training Polish military personnel on drone interception. UAF is committed to internal transparency and anti-corruption efforts (e.g., Poltava prison torture trial, detention of woman selling humanitarian aid cars, ex-commander corruption investigation, Ukrainian MP fraud investigation). Morale is bolstered by public solidarity, recognition of valor (e.g., "Man in the Military" award, the DSHV celebration of a soldier who "burned 16 tanks"), and official support for POW families. Rheinmetall's planned shell production in Ukraine significantly enhances long-term readiness. High-level US, Danish, Finnish, Estonian, British (Foreign Minister), and Polish (Foreign Minister) diplomatic engagement confirms strong international support. The arrival of British Prince Harry further raises international awareness and support. UAF is also focused on protecting civilian life through initiatives like underground schools in Vilnyansk. UAF General Staff reports 890 RF combat losses over the last 24 hours. UAF is preparing for continued intense defensive operations on multiple fronts, as evidenced by the delivery of logistical vehicles to the Zaporizhzhia front. The graphic video of a UAF soldier receiving field medical aid highlights the resilience of UAF personnel and the importance of combat medicine. UAF 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" demonstrates proactive development and deployment of advanced UAVs, signaling enhanced tactical capabilities. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" (UAF milblogger) claims Ukrainian Defense Forces (СОУ) have "cleared and liberated" the villages of Shakhove and Volodymyrivka on the Dobropillya direction, demonstrating local offensive success. The "Rubizh" brigade's fundraising indicates active recovery efforts and sustained combat operations despite potential equipment losses. The successful SBU detention of a UOC-MP priest for alleged strike adjustment indicates effective UAF counter-intelligence and security readiness. The opening of a new European gauge rail line from Uzhhorod to Budapest/Vienna improves Ukraine's westward transportation and logistical connectivity, enhancing long-term readiness. UAF Air Force reports continued reconnaissance UAV activity by RF in northern Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, indicating UAF maintains vigilance and intelligence gathering capability in these areas. "Оперативний ЗСУ" highlights Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski's strong stance against RF drone incursions into Poland, showcasing strong diplomatic readiness and alignment with NATO allies. The high-profile visit of Prince Harry further boosts UAF's international standing and public morale. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims UAF has moved military aircraft to airfields in Poland and Romania, which, if true, indicates a strategic decision to preserve air assets and maintain combat readiness through dispersal, potentially enhancing long-term readiness and survivability. Germany's call for long-range weapons for strikes on Russia indicates continued efforts to enhance UAF offensive capabilities. Liveuamap Source reports on UAF repelling numerous attacks across multiple axes, confirming continued UAF defensive effectiveness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports successful raid actions by "Morok" assault battalion, 225th Separate Assault Regiment, with drone support, highlighting UAF small unit tactical effectiveness and readiness. STERNENKO reports +280 FPV drones purchased in the last day through public donations, demonstrating strong public support for UAF drone procurement. RBC-Україна supports fundraising for vehicles for the 153rd Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBR), indicating ongoing UAF logistical needs and public support. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares images and videos of a UAF vehicle ("Techik") undergoing repair, indicating maintenance and sustainment efforts, crucial for readiness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the 141st Mechanized Brigade has received Croatian M-84 tanks, indicating continued Western military aid and UAF modernization. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports an ex-commander of a military unit in Lviv Oblast is suspected of million-dollar damages during the purchase of army beds, highlighting UAF internal anti-corruption efforts. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a thermal drone video depicting a Russian soldier attempting to hide from a UAF drone operator (79th Airmobile Brigade), showcasing successful UAF drone hunter-killer operations. Zelenskiy / Official and Oleh Syniehubov, Governor of Kharkiv ODA, share photos celebrating Electronic Warfare (EW) personnel, showing soldiers with EW equipment, highlighting the importance of this capability for UAF. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UAF General Staff) announces a new training course "SEDO: digital document management in the army" for Army+ app users, indicating modernization of administrative procedures. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of Ukrainian snipers eliminating six Russian assault troops on the Toretsk front, Donetsk Oblast. "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares photos regarding the National Police liquidating a scheme for profiting from humanitarian vehicles for UAF in Kyiv, indicating ongoing efforts to combat corruption affecting military aid. "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" confirms a working trip to the Pokrovsk and Dobropillya directions, indicating high-level attention to these critical sectors. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration shares a video about a relocated art school operating in a bomb shelter in Zaporizhzhia, highlighting civilian resilience and educational continuity amidst the conflict. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Staff for POWs) emphasizes support for families of missing persons and those captured, and requests public support to disseminate important messages, indicating continued efforts to address the human impact of the conflict on military families. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF milblogger) video of SSO snipers engaging in close-quarters combat during an assault on enemy trench positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction by SSO snipers, involving grenades and small arms fire in close-quarters combat, highlighting active UAF ground engagements. Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF milblogger) highlights RF's increasing use of FPV "Zhduny" (waiting/ambush drones) in combat, with the video showing a Ukrainian soldier engaging a stationary target. STERNENKO (UAF milblogger) reports on the continued success of the "SKY RUSORIZ" project in downing enemy UAVs, demonstrating persistent UAF counter-UAV capabilities and public support for this effort. "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" shares photo messages celebrating EW personnel on their professional day, highlighting their crucial role. "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" shares photo messages about opening a memorial plaque for fallen defender Oleksandr Dokukin, indicating UAF efforts to honor military personnel. Офіс Генерального прокурора shares a photo message about a "scheme of fictitious employment in 'fake' educational institutions to evade mobilization," indicating UAF efforts to combat draft evasion. Оперативний ЗСУ amplifies Head of Bundestag Defense Committee Thomas Röwekamp stating Russian drones threatening NATO territory should be shot down over Ukraine, indicating a clear allied position. RBC-Україна reports that Ukrainian specialists will train Poles to shoot down drones, but not in Ukraine, indicating continued cooperation on air defense. The Coordination Staff for POWs is holding a meeting with families of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade (UAF) fighters, demonstrating UAF commitment to POW support. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of Ukrainian soldiers from the '3rd Army Corps' operating in a rural environment, including interaction with captured individuals, indicating active UAF ground operations and potentially POW capture. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА share video of a meeting with Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, discussing further support, defense aid, joint weapons production, and EU membership, highlighting continued UAF diplomatic efforts. STERNENKO shares video of the UAF BAS Fenix unit working daily on Russian logistics in Donetsk Oblast, showcasing UAF operational effectiveness against RF supply lines. РБК-Україна reports the State Bureau of Investigation (DBR) has completed its investigation into Ukrainian MP Yevhen Shevchenko for treason and fraud, demonstrating continued UAF anti-corruption efforts. Олександр Вілкул shares multiple photo messages with the caption "ЖИТТЯ ТРИВАЄ!" (Life Continues!), depicting civilian events with traditional Ukrainian attire, a UAF IO effort to boost morale and project normalcy amidst the conflict. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational information as of 16:00, 12.09.2025, maintaining transparency and regular updates on battlefield status. * Air/Missile Forces: UAF Air Defenses achieved a 94% interception rate (62 of 66 UAVs) against a significant RF air attack in the previous wave. HUR MOD specialists shot down 20 enemy drones. Shahed drone debris was found in Odesa. UAF kamikaze drones cleared an RF roadblock. A ballistic missile threat from the north was lifted. Air raid alerts for Zaporizhzhia and Odesa Oblasts were lifted, indicating successful air defense. UAF drone attacks are reported to have caused explosions and fires at an oil depot in Smolensk Oblast and Primorsk port in Leningrad Oblast. Ukrainian channels "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" share multiple videos and text suggesting successful UAF drone attacks causing fires and explosions in Smolensk and Leningrad Oblasts, including a LUKOIL facility and Primorsk. UAF Air Force reports 33 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed in the latest wave (from 40 launched). STERNENKO reports over 400 air targets intercepted by "Shahedoriz" project, indicating ongoing counter-UAV efforts. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" issues an air strike warning for Zaporizhzhia. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares video of an alleged UAV strike on a Transneft oil pumping station "Vtorovo" in Vladimir Oblast, Russia, indicating a significant expansion of UAF deep strike range and target type if verified. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares multiple videos depicting night-time explosions and missile trails, including an alleged UAV strike on Primorsk Port and a significant explosion in an urban/industrial area, reinforcing UAF deep strike claims. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports new reconnaissance UAV activity on the north of Chernihiv and east of Sumy Oblasts, indicating persistent RF ISR that UAF must monitor. Germany calls on partners to supply long-range weapons for strikes on Russia, signaling continued international support for UAF offensive capabilities. "Alex Parker Returns" shares video of an alleged strike on a fuel object in Vladimir Oblast, further supporting the claim of a UAF deep strike on a Transneft oil pumping station. RBC-Ukraine reports SBU drones hit Primorsk port, suspending oil shipments, indicating successful UAF deep strike and significant impact. UAF Air Force reports enemy attack UAVs heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast from northern Kherson Oblast. STERNENKO (UAF milblogger) reports 5 more enemy UAVs shot down. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UAF milblogger) provides an analysis of the alleged UAF UAV strike on the Transneft oil pumping station "Vtorovo," concluding that a "Lyutyy" UAV hit a technological overpass with pipelines, signal, and power cables. This provides specific BDA and target information, increasing the confidence in the success and impact of the strike. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno also shares maps of oil and gas pipelines, suggesting strategic targeting. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" issues an air raid alert for Cherkasy Oblast, warning of missile danger. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports enemy UAVs heading southwest from northern Kherson Oblast. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports KABs on Donetsk Oblast. * Naval Forces: Ukrainian HUR units successfully struck and disabled an RF Black Sea Fleet vessel (Project MPSV07) near Novorossiysk. * Information Warfare/Diplomacy: UAF continues to demonstrate asymmetric warfare capabilities through resistance movements like "ATESH." Poland has committed to cooperating with Ukraine on anti-drone systems. Sweden has provided its 20th package of military aid ($836M) and committed $4.276B annually for 2026-2027. Rheinmetall will deploy shell production in a safe region of Ukraine. President Zelenskyy met with US Special Representative General Keith Kellogg, as well as Danish, Finnish, and Estonian officials, confirming continued high-level support. UAF is actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to enhance international cooperation and air defense capabilities, including sharing expertise on countering Shaheds and training Polish military personnel on drone interception. UAF recognizes EW personnel day. UAF General Staff provides regular operational information and RF combat losses. UAF General Staff reports a productive conversation with the Polish Chief of General Staff, General Wiesław Kukuła, likely concerning drone incursions and border security. "STERNENKO" (UAF milblogger) notes UAF has "again failed to meet the norm for cutting Russians," possibly indicating a slowdown in RF personnel losses or a high internal expectation for combat effectiveness, or a sardonic comment. RBC-Ukraine reports the British Foreign Minister is in Kyiv to announce a winter aid package of $190 million, demonstrating continued international support. RBC-Ukraine reports Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski arrived in Kyiv, indicating ongoing high-level diplomatic engagement amidst the border crisis. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA), and the Office of the Prosecutor General all share "Minute of Silence" tributes, reinforcing national unity and remembrance. STERNENKO and Оперативний ЗСУ report the arrival of British Prince Harry in Kyiv, a high-profile visit boosting international attention and potentially morale. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a bipartisan group of US senators insists on naming Russia a state sponsor of terrorism, indicating continued pressure on RF from the US. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports six employees of a correctional facility in Poltava Oblast will be tried for torturing an inmate, highlighting Ukrainian efforts to address internal legal accountability. RBC-Ukraine reports Sikorski reacted to Trump's statement about drones in Poland, stating "This was not a mistake," reinforcing the Polish stance and countering Trump's narrative. Zelenskyy's official channel and KMVA share videos of the "Fifth Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen" with international guests from Austria, Denmark, Estonia, Lithuania, Finland, Serbia, Germany, emphasizing international support and diplomatic engagement on education and humanitarian themes. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the first train departed Uzhhorod on a newly built European gauge track to Budapest and Vienna, signifying efforts to improve economic and transport links with Europe, with potential dual-use benefits for logistics. Оперативний ЗСУ criticizes Trump as an "empty talker" not respected by enemies or allies, reflecting UAF dissatisfaction with his statements. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski stated "The invasion of 19 Russian UAVs into Poland was not a mistake," directly countering Trump's narrative and reinforcing a strong stance from a key NATO ally. "Alex Parker Returns" shares a photo message about Prince Harry's arrival in Ukraine by train from Warsaw, with a caption implying surprise or significance ("Вот это поворот!"). RBC-Ukraine also publishes video of Prince Harry arriving in Kyiv by train. This indicates a high-profile visit that boosts morale and international attention. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports Great Britain and Japan have introduced new sanctions against Russia, and the EU will present new sanctions on September 15, confirming continued international economic and diplomatic pressure. "Офіс Генерального прокурора" reports the detention of a woman in Kyiv selling cars imported as humanitarian aid for UAF, demonstrating UAF efforts to combat corruption and maintain integrity of aid. "Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація" shares a video of President Zelenskyy speaking at the Fifth Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen, emphasizing education and international solidarity, which is a UAF IO effort to showcase international support. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares images and videos of a UAF vehicle ("Techik") undergoing repair, indicating maintenance and sustainment efforts. RBC-Україна reports on the launch of new direct trains from Ukraine to Europe, further boosting diplomatic ties and transport links. "Alex Parker Returns" shares a derogatory post about Finnish President Stubb's closeness to Zelenskyy, attempting to undermine UAF diplomatic efforts. "Филолог в засаде" shares a photo of military personnel, possibly UAF, indicating ongoing efforts to document and share information on military activities. RBC-Ukraine reports EU countries have extended sanctions against Moscow and are preparing a 19th package. UAF (Оперативний ЗСУ), RBC-Ukraine, and TASS (Peskov) all comment on the "pause" in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, indicating a shared recognition of this diplomatic stagnation. UAF General Staff issued a decree establishing the Day of Electronic Warfare Troops on September 12, recognizing the importance of this branch. The Coordination Staff for the Treatment of Prisoners of War met with families of "Lyut" Assault Brigade fighters of the National Police, indicating continued support for POWs and their families. "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares two photo messages about "Day without booze," likely a morale-boosting or health-focused initiative among UAF. RBC-Ukraine reports a new state holiday in Ukraine, signed by Zelenskyy, further boosting national identity and morale. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports completion of a pre-trial investigation into a Ukrainian MP accused of fraud, demonstrating continued anti-corruption efforts. Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF milblogger) reports a shootout with two fatalities occurred in an auto service office in Lviv Oblast, confirming an internal security incident. RBC-Україна reports that the pre-trial detention of Ruslan Magomedrasulov, an NABU official, has been extended, indicating ongoing Ukrainian anti-corruption efforts. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) express gratitude to Great Britain for a new sanctions package against Russia's shadow fleet and military supply chains. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on Head of Bundestag Defense Committee Thomas Röwekamp stating that Russian drones threatening NATO territory should be shot down over Ukraine, indicating a clear allied position. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS amplifies Thomas Röwekamp's statement, further pushing this narrative within Ukraine. RBC-Україна reports that Ukrainian specialists will train Poles to shoot down drones, but not in Ukraine, indicating continued cooperation on air defense. The Coordination Staff for POWs is holding a meeting with families of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade (UAF) fighters, demonstrating UAF commitment to POW support. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of Ukrainian soldiers from the '3rd Army Corps' operating in a rural environment, including interaction with captured individuals, indicating active UAF ground operations and potentially POW capture. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА share video of a meeting with Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, discussing further support, defense aid, joint weapons production, and EU membership, highlighting continued UAF diplomatic efforts. STERNENKO shares video of the UAF BAS Fenix unit working daily on Russian logistics in Donetsk Oblast, showcasing UAF operational effectiveness against RF supply lines. РБК-Україна reports the State Bureau of Investigation (DBR) has completed its investigation into Ukrainian MP Yevhen Shevchenko for treason and fraud, demonstrating continued UAF anti-corruption efforts. Олександр Вілкул shares multiple photo messages with the caption "ЖИТТЯ ТРИВАЄ!" (Life Continues!), depicting civilian events with traditional Ukrainian attire, a UAF IO effort to boost morale and project normalcy amidst the conflict. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational information as of 16:00, 12.09.2025, maintaining transparency and regular updates on battlefield status. * Casualties: One civilian killed in Polohy Raion due to enemy attacks. The death of a 15-year-old boy in Kharkiv due to RF shelling. The 68-year-old man severely injured in a drone strike on Prymorske yesterday has died in hospital. UAF General Staff reports RF combat losses over the last 24 hours include 890 personnel. One security guard killed under the rubble in Sumy. RBC-Ukraine reports fatalities and destruction in residential areas of Sumy Oblast due to RF missile strikes. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares graphic video of a UAF soldier receiving immediate medical aid for a close-quarters bullet wound to the face, highlighting the direct human cost of intense combat. RBC-Ukraine reports 2 people killed and 5 houses destroyed in a village in Sumy Oblast due to RF strike. RBC-Ukraine reports at least 5 injured in a village in Sumy Oblast due to RF strike. ASTRA reports three people killed after a Russian attack in Sumy Oblast, as confirmed by local authorities. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF milblogger) reports two people killed and five injured in the village of Bytytsia, Sumy Oblast, as a result of a missile strike. STERNENKO (UAF milblogger) and Sumy Oblast Military Administration (OVA) confirm one person killed in Sumy due to RF drone strike this morning. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares graphic video footage depicting multiple deceased and dismembered individuals after an alleged artillery strike in a rural area. TASS reports 1 killed, 6 wounded in Kherson Oblast due to UAF shelling, which RF will use for IO. ASTRA reports the woman killed in Belgorod this morning died from the impact of a "Pantsir" air defense missile booster, confirming RF air defense malfunction/collateral damage. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports that Andriy Kuzmin, a resident of Tambov Oblast and father of 12, was eliminated near Byle in Kursk Oblast after signing a contract with the RF MoD, highlighting individual RF combat losses. "Север.Реалии" reports that the woman killed in Belgorod was killed by a "Pantsir" air defense missile booster, reaffirming the ASTRA report. RBC-Ukraine reports a shootout in an auto service office in Lviv Oblast with fatalities, indicating internal security challenges. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of Ukrainian snipers eliminating six Russian assault troops on the Toretsk front, Donetsk Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF milblogger) reports a shootout with two fatalities occurred in an auto service office in Lviv Oblast, confirming internal security incident with casualties. "Воин DV" shares a video from Zaporizhzhia showing deceased soldiers and destroyed military equipment after an engagement, highlighting casualties on the battlefield. "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" shares photo messages about opening a memorial plaque for fallen defender Oleksandr Dokukin, which confirms a UAF casualty. TASS reports an accident on a cable car on Elbrus killed a local resident and a tourist. This is a civilian incident.

3.2. Recent tactical successes or setbacks (Confidence: HIGH)

• Successes:
  • High interception rate (94% previously, 33 of 40 in the latest wave, 5 more reported by STERNENKO) against RF UAV attack.
  • Successful repulsion of 130 RF attacks across multiple axes.
  • Effective drone operations by UAF units against RF personnel and equipment, particularly significant with 890 RF personnel eliminated in 24 hours. UAF sniper team eliminated six RF assault troops on the Toretsk front. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video shows destruction of RF military vehicles during combat operations, which could be attributed to UAF actions. SSO snipers engaging in close-quarters combat on Zaporizhzhia direction (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) demonstrates ground tactical success. STERNENKO reporting 5 more enemy UAVs shot down indicates continued counter-UAV success.
  • Successful HUR strike on an RF Black Sea Fleet Project MPSV07 vessel, disabling a key support asset.
  • Successful destruction of a bridge near Nova Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, disrupting RF logistics.
  • Successful deep strikes into RF territory: explosions and fires at an oil depot in Smolensk Oblast and Primorsk port/pumping station in Leningrad Oblast; Luhansk ammunition depot; and numerous UAV incursions in Leningrad Oblast, Rostov Oblast, and Moscow region. Verified UAF videos from "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" confirming fires and explosions in Smolensk and Leningrad Oblasts, including a LUKOIL facility. Alleged UAV strike on Transneft oil pumping station "Vtorovo" in Vladimir Oblast, if verified, represents a significant success, expanding UAF deep strike range and target type. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares multiple videos depicting night-time explosions and missile trails, reinforcing UAF deep strike claims. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports an "explosive morning" in Leningrad Oblast, with videos, further reinforcing successful UAF deep strike claims. "Alex Parker Returns" shares video further supporting the Vladimir Oblast deep strike claim. RBC-Ukraine reports SBU drones hit Primorsk port, suspending oil shipments, indicating successful UAF deep strike and significant impact. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a direct hit on an RF location in occupied Kadiivka (Stakhanov), causing fire/explosions, demonstrating successful deep strike capability within occupied territories. ASTRA, citing SBU sources, confirms strike on Primorsk oil port. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno's analysis provides specific BDA for the Transneft strike, increasing confidence in its success.
  • US Congress approved $400 million in military aid, and Sweden committed $836M (20th package) and $4.276B annually for 2026-2027. British Foreign Minister in Kyiv announces $190 million winter aid package. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports Great Britain and Japan have introduced new sanctions against Russia, and the EU will present new sanctions on September 15, confirming continued international economic and diplomatic pressure. Germany calls on partners to supply long-range weapons for strikes on Russia. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports US will pressure G7 to impose tariffs on Indian and Chinese purchases of Russian oil, indicating potential future economic pressure on RF. RBC-Ukraine reports EU countries have extended sanctions and are preparing a 19th package. TASS reports the EU Commission will announce a 19th package of sanctions against RF on September 17. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА express gratitude for new UK sanctions, highlighting continued international support.
  • Effective counter-offensive drone operations against RF mechanized advances in Kostiantynivka direction.
  • UAF special forces destroyed an RF BMD-3 in the Zaporizhzhia direction and conducted successful strikes against RF artillery/personal in Kursk Oblast.
  • Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania closed border airspace, and Poland closed all border crossings with Belarus, demonstrating a coordinated NATO response to RF hybrid operations.
  • Deployment of Rafale and Eurofighter jets by Britain and France to NATO's eastern flank.
  • UAF recognition of EW personnel day highlights commitment to critical capabilities. UAF General Staff issued a decree establishing the Day of Electronic Warfare Troops on September 12.
  • UAF General Staff reports a productive conversation with Polish Chief of General Staff, strengthening coordination amidst border crisis. Polish Foreign Minister arrived in Kyiv, signaling continued high-level diplomatic support.
  • Significant delivery of transport vehicles to the Zaporizhzhia front enhances UAF logistics and mobility.
  • UAF DSHV channels boosting morale by highlighting valorous individual soldiers.
  • Arrival of British Prince Harry in Kyiv boosts international attention and morale.
  • UAF 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" showcases new advanced UAVs.
  • STERNENKO reports over 400 air targets intercepted by "Shahedoriz" project. STERNENKO reports significant public fundraising for FPV drones (+280 in one day).
  • "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" (UAF milblogger) claims Ukrainian Defense Forces (СОУ) have "cleared and liberated" the villages of Shakhove and Volodymyrivka on the Dobropillya direction, a tactical success if verified.
  • The Office of the Prosecutor General reporting a trial for prison staff for torture demonstrates commitment to internal legal accountability and transparency. "Офіс Генерального прокурора" reports the detention of a woman in Kyiv selling cars imported as humanitarian aid for UAF, demonstrating UAF efforts to combat corruption. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports an ex-commander of a military unit in Lviv Oblast is suspected of million-dollar damages during the purchase of army beds, highlighting UAF internal anti-corruption efforts. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports completion of a pre-trial investigation into a Ukrainian MP accused of fraud, demonstrating continued anti-corruption efforts at higher levels. RBC-Україна reports that the pre-trial detention of Ruslan Magomedrasulov, an NABU official, has been extended, indicating ongoing Ukrainian anti-corruption efforts. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on a scheme to evade mobilization, showing successful counter-mobilization fraud efforts.
  • The bipartisan US Senate push to name Russia a state sponsor of terrorism indicates continued strong political support in the US.
  • RBC-Ukraine reports Sikorski's strong reaction to Trump's statement ("This was not a mistake") strengthens the pro-Ukrainian narrative and diplomatic alignment.
  • Zelenskyy's hosting of the "Fifth Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen" with various European dignitaries demonstrates continued high-level diplomatic engagement and international support for Ukraine's humanitarian and educational initiatives.
  • The SBU detention of the UOC-MP priest accused of adjusting RF strikes in Sumy Oblast represents a successful counter-intelligence operation, degrading RF's intelligence network.
  • The opening of a new European gauge rail line from Uzhhorod to Budapest and Vienna represents a significant logistical and economic success, improving Ukraine's connectivity with Europe.
  • Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski reiterating that the drone incursions into Poland were "not a mistake" is a clear diplomatic success, maintaining a strong, unified front against RF's hybrid actions and countering divisive narratives. Prince Harry's visit is a significant diplomatic and public relations success, drawing positive international attention and boosting morale.
  • UAF Air Force reports continued reconnaissance UAV activity by RF in northern Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, indicating UAF maintains vigilance and intelligence gathering capability in these areas.
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports successful raid actions by "Morok" assault battalion, 225th Separate Assault Regiment, using remote mining by "Pentagon" pilots to prevent RF interception, indicating successful tactical innovation and drone support.
  • "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares images and videos of a UAF vehicle undergoing repair, indicating successful maintenance efforts to sustain equipment.
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the 141st Mechanized Brigade has received Croatian M-84 tanks, indicating continued Western military aid and UAF modernization.
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a thermal drone video depicting a Russian soldier attempting to hide from a UAF drone operator (79th Airmobile Brigade), showcasing successful UAF drone hunter-killer operations.
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the elimination of Andriy Kuzmin, an RF contract soldier, near Byle in Kursk Oblast after signing a contract with the RF MoD, representing a human cost from RF's perspective, but an operational success for UAF if he was eliminated by UAF forces during a cross-border raid.
  • UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's video on energy facility restoration and winter preparations highlights resilience and proactive measures.
  • UAF leadership celebrating EW personnel day (Zelenskyy, Oleh Syniehubov) reinforces the importance of this capability and boosts morale. "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" also celebrates EW personnel.
  • UAF General Staff's announcement of a new digital document management course indicates successful efforts towards military modernization and efficiency.
  • The Coordination Staff for the Treatment of Prisoners of War met with families of "Lyut" Assault Brigade fighters provides direct support, crucial for morale.
  • RBC-Ukraine reports a shootout in Lviv, while an internal security issue, could be framed transparently to maintain public trust.
  • "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares content on "Day without booze," which could indicate a successful morale or health initiative within UAF. RBC-Ukraine reports a new state holiday in Ukraine, signed by Zelenskyy, further boosting national identity and morale. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the National Police liquidating a scheme for profiting from humanitarian vehicles for UAF in Kyiv, demonstrating transparent anti-corruption efforts. "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" reports high-level command's attention to critical fronts, bolstering confidence. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's video about a relocated art school in a bomb shelter showcases civilian resilience. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Staff for POWs) emphasizes continued support for military families and information dissemination, highlighting ongoing efforts to address the human dimension of the conflict. Оперативний ЗСУ reporting on the Lviv shootout transparently manages internal security incidents. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА express gratitude for new UK sanctions, using diplomatic messaging to reinforce international support. "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" celebrating EW personnel contributes to military morale. "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" commemorating Oleksandr Dokukin fosters national unity and honors sacrifices. Оперативний ЗСУ amplifies Head of Bundestag Defense Committee Thomas Röwekamp stating Russian drones threatening NATO territory should be shot down over Ukraine, indicating a clear allied position. RBC-Україна reports that Ukrainian specialists will train Poles to shoot down drones, but not in Ukraine, indicating continued cooperation on air defense, maintaining focus on defensive capabilities. The Coordination Staff for POWs is holding a meeting with families of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade (UAF) fighters, demonstrating UAF commitment to POW support. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of Ukrainian soldiers from the '3rd Army Corps' in a rural environment conducting tactical movements, RPG use, and interaction with captured individuals, indicating active offensive/clearing operations. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА share video of a meeting with Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, discussing further support, defense aid, joint weapons production, and EU membership, highlighting continued UAF diplomatic efforts and EU integration. STERNENKO shares video of the UAF BAS Fenix unit working daily on Russian logistics in Donetsk Oblast, showcasing UAF operational effectiveness against RF supply lines. РБК-Україна reports the State Bureau of Investigation (DBR) has completed its investigation into Ukrainian MP Yevhen Shevchenko for treason and fraud, demonstrating continued UAF anti-corruption efforts. Олександр Вілкул shares multiple photo messages with the caption "ЖИТТЯ ТРИВАЄ!" (Life Continues!), depicting civilian events with traditional Ukrainian attire, a UAF IO effort to boost morale and project normalcy amidst the conflict. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides operational information as of 16:00, 12.09.2025, detailing ongoing resistance against RF and maintaining transparency.
• Setbacks:
  • RF exploitation of the Pokrovsk breakthrough, leading to urban combat within Pokrovsk city limits. "Сливочный каприз" video confirms intense artillery bombardment of a settlement in the Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk area, indicating ongoing destruction and pressure, including in Vladimirovka.
  • Continued significant damage to DIB, energy, and civilian infrastructure from RF deep strikes (e.g., Sumy, Kramatorsk, Trypilska TPP). One security guard killed under rubble in Sumy. Fatalities and destruction in residential areas of Sumy Oblast due to RF missile strikes (2 killed, 5 houses destroyed in one village, 3 killed overall per ASTRA, 2 killed, 5 injured in Bytytsia per ЦАПЛІЄНКО). At least 5 injured in a village in Sumy Oblast. "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" reporting "tragedy" in Nikopol region due to enemy terror, implying ongoing civilian impact.
  • Civilian casualties from RF attacks remain high (Yarova, Polohy Raion, Prymorske, Sumy security guard, Sumy residential areas). TASS reports 1 killed, 6 wounded in Kherson Oblast due to UAF shelling, which RF will use for IO. Oleg Sinegubov reports RF drone attack on a civilian vehicle in Shevchenkivska community, Kharkiv Oblast.
  • RF's "liberation" of Sosnovka and Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, represents a significant territorial setback for UAF and a new threat of encirclement to Velykomykhailivka. TASS reporting RF "practically dislodged" UAF from Novomykolaivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast represents a further territorial setback, expanding RF's Dnipropetropvsk salient. "Z комитет + карта СВО" tactical maps indicate RF advances around Velykomykhailivka and Novoivanivka, further reinforcing this territorial pressure.
  • The loss of UAF Major Oleksandr Borovyk and a Su-27 aircraft in Zaporizhzhia direction is a critical operational setback, impacting air defense and offensive air capabilities. MoD Russia claiming the Su-27 was destroyed in aerial combat highlights a direct air-to-air loss.
  • Localized territorial loss with RF claims of controlling 50% of Pereyizne (Siversk direction). RF claims control over Kolodyazi and "practically dislodged" UAF from Kirovsk on the Krasny Liman direction, representing further territorial losses. Confirmed sustained RF advances in Pokrovsk-Myrnograd area by Рыбарь. "Операция Z" tactical maps suggesting advances in the Novopavlovsk direction imply additional territorial pressure. "Воин DV" implicitly criticizes UAF's delayed acknowledgement of territorial losses, suggesting an information setback.
  • Persistent diplomatic friction with Hungary and Slovakia due to political statements, indicating challenges in maintaining international unity.
  • RF claims of destroying a UAF UAV control point and communication antenna (Starlink) in Siversk direction, if verified, represents a setback for UAF drone operations and C2. "Народная милиция ДНР" shares drone footage of RF 68th ORB destroying a UAF communications antenna/Starlink. Colonelcassad reports RF "Sparta" battalion destroying two UAF UAV control points and a communication antenna near Dimitrov.
  • RF FPV drone ambushes are successfully targeting UAF transport in Kharkiv Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast. Thermal drone footage from RF's 35th Army targeting UAF personnel with FPV drones on the Polohy direction demonstrates continued RF FPV effectiveness. Thermal drone footage of "Anvar" special forces attacking a convoy on Sumy axis indicates another successful RF drone operation.
  • RF UAV operators are disrupting UAF rotations in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • RF claims of destroying ~30% of UAF vehicles in DPR rear areas represents a potential significant logistical setback (requires verification).
  • RF claims of up to 80% destruction of UAF assault groups near Andriyivka, Sumy Oblast, if accurate, represents a severe tactical setback in personnel and offensive capacity (requires verification).
  • RF 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment reportedly advancing on Sumy front, indicating new pressure on a previously stable sector.
  • Civilian casualties in Belgorod and Bryansk Oblasts, attributed to UAF by RF, present an IO challenge and potential for escalation. Bryansk Governor reports 5 injured, including 2 "Bars-Bryansk" fighters, from UAF strikes on a passenger minibus, a severe IO challenge. Poddubny and Belgorod Mayor confirm a woman killed in Belgorod. ASTRA reports the woman killed in Belgorod this morning died from the impact of a "Pantsir" air defense missile booster, confirming RF air defense malfunction/collateral damage. This presents a new IO challenge for RF.
  • RF snipers successfully targeting UAF "Baba Yaga" drones indicates an effective counter-UAV tactic.
  • RF claim of destruction of a UAF 155mm charge storage site by a VT-40 FPV drone, if verified, represents a setback for UAF artillery logistics.
  • RF MOD claims of 221 Ukrainian UAVs shot down overnight, if accurate, indicate significant losses for UAF deep strike capabilities.
  • ASTRA reports Smolensk Governor Anokhin claims no damage or casualties from UAF drone attacks in Smolensk, which, if accurate, would negate a previous UAF success claim.
  • The "Rubizh" brigade fundraising for destroyed equipment implies recent combat losses that require replacement.
  • The graphic video of multiple deceased and dismembered individuals shared by "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" highlights the extreme human cost and severity of combat, which can impact morale.
  • UAF dissatisfaction with Trump's statements ("empty talker") reflects a setback in perceived unwavering US political unity.
  • Continued RF reconnaissance UAV activity in northern Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts indicates persistent threat and UAF resource expenditure on defense in these border regions.
  • RBC-Ukraine reporting on rising food prices in Ukraine could negatively impact civilian morale and stability.
  • "Alex Parker Returns" shares a derogatory post about Finnish President Stubb's closeness to Zelenskyy, attempting to undermine UAF diplomatic efforts.
  • The "pause" in negotiations reported by Peskov indicates a diplomatic setback, or at least a stagnation of efforts to find a peaceful resolution, which could be exploited by RF.
  • RBC-Ukraine reports a shootout in an auto service office in Lviv Oblast with fatalities, indicating an internal security incident that could divert resources or impact morale.
  • TASS reports a UAF drone attacked the Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant, even if only hitting ancillary facilities. This represents a significant security breach and a potential escalation by RF in its IO. Росатом's statement downplaying damage at Smolensk NPP may also be a setback for UAF IO if the true impact was indeed minor.
  • RF claims of strikes on Ukrainian defense industry and military assets from 6-12 September, if accurate, represent continued attrition of UAF capabilities.
  • "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares graphic video of combat scenarios, including destruction of military vehicles, representing a possible RF tactical setback or at least intense attrition for both sides. "Воин DV" video showing destroyed military equipment and deceased soldiers in Zaporizhzhia indicates a setback in terms of losses on the battlefield.
  • "Воин DV" video capturing RF FPV drone operations targeting light vehicles and personnel suggests that UAF continues to face effective RF tactical engagements and associated losses.
  • Оперативний ЗСУ highlights RF's increasing use of FPV "Zhduny" drones, suggesting UAF is facing a new, evolving threat that could lead to increased ambushes and losses.
  • The extension of pre-trial detention for NABU official Ruslan Magomedrasulov, while an internal anti-corruption effort, could be perceived as a setback for UAF's image of transparency if the case becomes protracted or contentious.
  • "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" reports opening a memorial plaque for fallen defender Oleksandr Dokukin, which confirms a UAF casualty.
  • TASS reports an accident on a cable car on Elbrus killed a local resident and a tourist. While a civilian incident, this represents a domestic setback for RF in terms of safety and public services.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

• Propaganda and disinformation campaigns:

  • RF Narratives (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF continues to push aggressive, multi-layered propaganda. Key narratives include: portraying UAF as targeting civilian infrastructure (e.g., ZNPP training center, Sumy non-residential building, Polohy Raion, Belgorod/Bryansk civilian casualties, Western Ukraine missile incident), specifically leveraging the Bryansk minibus attack and the latest Belgorod casualties to blame UAF for attacking civilians and "Bars-Bryansk" fighters; blaming Ukraine for attacks on RF territory (e.g., Belgorod, Bryansk, and now Leningrad Oblast, Rostov Oblast, Smolensk, Vladimir Oblast, Smolensk NPP) while claiming successful homeland air defense (e.g., 221 UAVs downed) and even denying damage (Smolensk, Росатом on Smolensk NPP); denying responsibility for NATO airspace violations (e.g., Polish drone incident) while amplifying Trump's "could be a mistake" statement, and now claiming the damage was pre-existing (amplifying former Polish MEP's accusation); framing NATO's response as escalatory (e.g., Poland's troop deployment, Rafale/Eurofighter deployment, Abrams tanks in Poland); dismissing Western support as ineffective; exploiting internal Western political issues (e.g., US internal divisions, Charlie Kirk murder, alleged LGBT/Antifa links to the weapon, using images from the Charlie Kirk investigation to tie to broader anti-Western narratives, US Congress repealing AUMFs, Bolsonaro's sentencing in Brazil to highlight US pressure and push for BRICS, identifying Charlie Kirk suspect Tyler Robinson from Utah); and sowing discord (e.g., between Poland/Ukraine, critical of NATO's response). RF milbloggers are key amplifiers, mocking NATO's "slow" response to drone incursions and amplifying perceived Western disunity (e.g., Slovak FM statements). Lavrov's statement blaming the US for arming Ukraine is a core RF narrative. RF is leveraging the "West-2025" exercises to project military strength and unity, including naval power (Northern Fleet deployments (including Arctic Ocean) and Pacific Fleet exercises). RF is conducting internal IO to boost morale (e.g., increased military salaries, celebrating educational work bodies, using children in propaganda, promoting nationalistic religious events like the Alexander Nevsky procession in St. Petersburg, celebrating Ella Pamfilova, propaganda for "Admiral Kuznetsov," promoting Moscow voting centers, naming 90 polling stations after war participants). RF denies the existence or location of successful UAF deep strikes (e.g., initially for Smolensk/Primorsk, now explicitly Smolensk). RF claims UAF units on the Serebryansk direction received direct orders to shoot at civilians. RF seeks to control historical narratives (e.g., Mannerheim). RF frames Japan's sanctions as aggressive economic warfare. RF also claims UAF is using "unprepared recruits" for assault groups (e.g., Poltava's "Skala" regiment), attempting to portray UAF as desperate and ineffective. RF claims control of Kolodyazi and Kirovsk to project battlefield success. TASS attributes UAF "looting" in Krasny Liman to a preparation for withdrawal, a clear RF IO attempt to demoralize UAF and signal RF battlefield dominance. "Военкор Котенок" (RF milblogger) pushes a narrative of UAF repressing citizens who report "correct behavior" by RF soldiers in Kyiv Oblast, aiming to delegitimize Ukrainian authorities and promote a false image of RF forces. RF claims to be effectively countering "Baba Yaga" drones with snipers. Операция Z circulates highly inflammatory and graphic content to demonize Ukrainian authorities (TCC priest incident, and now the SBU arrest of the UOC-MP priest in Sumy). The FSB detention of an alleged UAF financier will be used to portray RF as actively countering internal threats. TASS reports a 14-year-old son of a Russian officer participating in the SVO was added to the Ukrainian "Myrotvorets" extremist website, which RF will use to demonstrate alleged Ukrainian extremism and target Russian military families for propaganda purposes. TASS reports a resident of Crimea was sentenced to 17 years for preparing a terrorist attack, which RF will leverage for internal security messaging and demonization of Ukrainian supporters. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) uses videos of Russian schoolchildren handling firearms and "FAKE" overlays to discredit Ukrainian claims about militarization of Russian youth, while simultaneously promoting patriotic education, demonstrating complex IO. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" projects the Special Military Operation (SVO) will conclude in 2027 with the capture of Odesa and Mykolaiv, a long-term strategic IO goal. "Воин DV" (RF milblogger) reports on upcoming US-South Korea nuclear exercises, which RF will use to frame NATO/US as aggressive. "Alex Parker Returns" shares another image of the Charlie Kirk assassination, reiterating the RF IO narrative. "Kotsnews" discusses a video regarding a boy on "Mirotvorets", claiming the original video was "fake" to discredit Ukrainian media/IO, demonstrating continued RF efforts to control narratives around youth militarization and alleged Ukrainian extremism. "Alex Parker Returns" shares a post regarding the sentencing of former Brazilian president Bolsonaro, leveraging it to highlight US pressure and push Brazil towards BRICS, furthering a narrative of anti-Western alliances. ASTRA reports 90 polling stations across Russia are named in honor of participants in the war with Ukraine, a clear RF IO effort to normalize and glorify the conflict within civilian life and promote military patriotism during elections. TASS publishes an interview with Rodion Miroshnik claiming Ukraine attacked border regions to disrupt Russia-US summit in Alaska, a clear IO attempt to blame UAF for cross-border strikes and frame UAF as disruptive to diplomacy. TASS claims Tatiana Kurtukova, singer of "Matushka," was added to Ukrainian "Myrotvorets" extremist website, another RF IO play to demonstrate alleged Ukrainian extremism and target cultural figures. "Басурин о главном" disseminates RT information on the mother of defector pilot Kuzminov, suggesting an ongoing RF effort to discredit defectors and their families. "Старше Эдды" shares a video and caption claiming a video of a boy on "Myrotvorets" was "fake," continuing RF efforts to control narratives around youth militarization and alleged Ukrainian extremism. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares a video and caption about Alla Pugacheva giving an interview to a "foreign agent," an IO attempt to discredit dissenting cultural figures. "Полиция Хабаровского края" shares a video celebrating a Russian TV program focused on law enforcement, projecting internal stability and competence. "Colonelcassad" claims former Pentagon aide Stephen Bryen stated fallen drones in Poland were under Ukrainian control, amplifying a narrative to shift blame. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shares a graphic claim that the father of a Ukrainian killed in the US was not allowed to leave Ukraine due to conscription age, another RF IO effort to demonize Ukrainian authorities and create sympathy for draft evaders. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares images and video commemorating a deceased project leader, aimed at internal morale and heroism narratives. "Z комитет + карта СВО" shares tactical maps of Velykomykhailivka and Novoivanivka to promote RF advances. "Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration" shares video of President Zelenskyy speaking at the Fifth Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen, emphasizing education and international solidarity, a UAF counter-IO effort. "Два майора" accuse Ukraine of issuing "another fake" and circulating it in social networks, specifically referencing a video about children learning to handle firearms, reinforcing RF's efforts to counter Ukrainian information. TASS quotes Rodion Miroshnik claiming the West supplies Ukraine with "inoperable Patriot air defenses," a clear IO attempt to discredit Western aid and boost RF confidence. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" amplifies former Pentagon aide Stephen Bryen's claim that fallen drones in Poland were under Ukrainian control, further shifting blame away from RF. "Два майора" post a memorial for a project leader of "Archangel Spetsnaz," another internal morale-boosting and heroism narrative. TASS quotes Florian Philippot, French "Patriots" party leader, claiming Western countries want to accelerate a full-scale war, an RF IO effort to portray the West as aggressive. "Alex Parker Returns" amplifies the claim by former Pentagon aide Stephen Bryen that fallen drones in Poland were under Ukrainian control and part of a provocation for more NATO weapons, reinforcing a key RF disinformation narrative. "Alex Parker Returns" shares a derogatory post about Finnish President Stubb's closeness to Zelenskyy, aiming to undermine the perception of Western unity and leadership. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares a video promoting "Faith in the SVO" project, showing a priest with soldiers, reinforcing religious and morale-boosting narratives within RF armed forces. Рыбарь's "Historical Decision" post appears to be political propaganda, without direct military significance, but aiming to reinforce RF narratives. RF utilizes weather (Moscow dryness) for neutral reporting, maintaining an appearance of normalcy. Alex Parker Returns shares multiple posts about Donald Trump potentially visiting Uzbekistan, likely to highlight his global influence or to contrast with the ongoing conflict. Maria Zakharova (TASS) states that Denmark's plans to produce solid rocket fuel for long-range missiles in Ukraine are an "adventure" and a "militarist course" that would escalate the conflict, indicating a new RF IO narrative to counter Western aid. TASS and Alex Parker Returns report the detention of an individual planning an assassination attempt on Vladimir Solovyev, framed as a Ukrainian special services operation, which RF will use for internal security messaging and demonization of Ukraine. TASS, Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, RBC-Ukraine, and Оперативний ЗСУ all report Peskov's statement about a "pause" in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, which RF will use to project a desire for dialogue while blaming European interference. Maria Zakharova (ТАСС) claims the West is trying to "fit" a legal base for stealing Russian assets, indicating continued RF IO regarding Western sanctions. Рыбарь discusses Moldovan President Sandu's statements, likely for IO against Moldova or to highlight its pro-Western stance. Maria Zakharova (Операция Z) claims "Zelenskyy is killing you for Western money," a highly inflammatory statement designed to undermine UAF and Western support. TASS shares a statement from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban claiming Ursula von der Leyen is leading the EU into an abyss with her political course, reinforcing narratives of EU disunity. TASS shares Maria Zakharova's statement accusing Kyiv of "gloating" over the Kirk assassination, proving the West has "raised a bloody monster" out of Kyiv, escalating inflammatory rhetoric. "Воин DV" sarcastically comments on Ukraine's delayed admission of territorial losses, implying UAF information manipulation. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reports on the "pause" in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, reinforcing the Kremlin's narrative. Colonelcassad reports the FSB detention of a Russian citizen in Klimovsk for allegedly financing UAF, which RF will use for internal security and propaganda. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares graphic combat footage, likely to demonstrate RF combat effectiveness or the brutality of war from their perspective. "Рыбарь" posts about "Prince on a white horse?" possibly a sarcastic comment on high-profile visits or a general IO message. AV БогомаZ posts about opening a new school in Bryansk, a civilian IO effort to project normalcy and development. "Операция Z" and "Военкор Котенок" amplify the claim of UAF attacking the Smolensk NPP, framing it as "nuclear terrorism," a severe escalation of RF IO. Maria Zakharova's statements are amplified by TASS, furthering RF's diplomatic IO. Colonelcassad's comment on the "fool" Vice-Mayor of Riga reinforces anti-Western sentiment. TASS reports Maria Zakharova's statements from a briefing, including criticisms of the West, indicating ongoing diplomatic IO. ТАСС reports on comments from the Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Financial Markets, Aksakov, stating that further reductions in the key interest rate are possible by the end of 2025, which will be used to project economic stability. Операция Z (RusVesna) shares video and images with the caption "Дети «для войны» и дети «для Европы»," contrasting statements by Ukrainian officials with the perceived lifestyle of their children abroad, a clear RF IO effort to expose alleged hypocrisy and sow discontent within Ukraine. Maria Zakharova (Басурин о главном) uses her official platform to accuse the "Kyiv regime" of conducting "terrorist war against peaceful residents of Russia," citing specific incidents in various regions, reinforcing RF's narrative for both domestic and international audiences. ТАСС reports that the German MFA summoned the Russian Ambassador regarding the drone incident in Poland, which RF will use to frame NATO as overly aggressive or to project its own diplomatic strength by having its ambassador summoned. TASS reports Trump stating the suspect in the Charlie Kirk murder is "very likely" in custody, leveraging US domestic news for IO. "Военкор Котенок" amplifies Trump's statement on the Charlie Kirk suspect. Alex Parker Returns and Оперативний ЗСУ also amplify Trump's statement on the Charlie Kirk suspect, further disseminating this US domestic news in the RF IO space. Alex Parker Returns shares a video featuring Donald Trump discussing the death penalty for the Kirk suspect, further amplifying this narrative. TASS also reports Trump hopes for the death penalty for Kirk's killer, reinforcing the RF IO focus on this event. Рыбарь shares a map titled "Cocaine Bridge," which, while not directly military, may allude to illicit activities or narratives for IO. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares a photo message about the "First ban on leaving the country due to the electronic register of subpoenas," indicating a new RF IO narrative on mobilization and internal control. ТАСС reports that Dmitry Bykov (recognized as a foreign agent and extremist in RF) is accused of spreading false information about RF shelling of Kharkiv, indicating RF IO targeting dissenting voices and controlling narratives about its actions in Ukraine. РБК-Україна shares a photo message about "Departure abroad for guys aged 18-22: has business felt the outflow of personnel," indicating a UAF-aligned IO focusing on the impact of mobilization on Ukrainian society. "Два майора" shares photo messages and text expressing concern about "United Russia" candidates in regional elections, specifically mentioning issues with diaspora leaders, which may represent an internal RF IO critique or concern. "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" shares photo messages about opening a memorial plaque to fallen defender Oleksandr Dokukin, a UAF IO effort to honor fallen soldiers and boost morale. Офіс Генерального прокурора shares a photo message about a "scheme of fictitious employment in 'fake' educational institutions to evade mobilization," indicating a UAF internal IO effort to combat draft evasion. General SVR (RF milblogger) continues to post, often with critical or satirical content, representing a more independent RF IO voice, though with limited direct military significance. Рыбарь shares a post "Empty talks," likely a dismissive commentary on ongoing discussions or negotiations, consistent with their IO tone. TASS shares a photo of a woman with the caption "I'm not going to protect anyone," which could be used to frame Ukrainian leaders as abandoning their people or to push narratives of self-preservation. Филолог в засаде references the "Дронница" exhibition, indicating discussion of RF drone capabilities and counter-drone measures, contributing to public awareness and IO around technological superiority. RF milbloggers "Сливочный каприз" continue to provide tactical maps (Krasnoarmeysk - Vladimirovka) to promote RF advances, while their drone video of artillery bombardment reinforces an image of battlefield dominance. Новости Москвы advertises a cashback program for train tickets from Alfa-Bank, reflecting RF IO's focus on domestic normalcy and consumerism. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on the Charlie Kirk suspect, engaging in information sharing, though without direct military IO framing. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares messages about "Ukraine on the way to the EU" discussing legislative changes, a UAF IO effort to promote European integration and future prosperity. Олександр Вілкул shares messages of "ЖИТТЯ ТРИВАЄ!" (Life Continues!), with images of civilian events, a UAF IO effort to project resilience and normalcy.
  • UAF Counter-Narratives (HIGH CONFIDENCE): UAF and allied media are countering RF narratives by: highlighting successful UAF operations (e.g., HUR naval strike, bridge destruction, drone interceptions, 890 RF personnel losses, deep strikes on RF territory, successful targeting of RF armored vehicles and logistics, confirming RF "motorcycle assaults", showcasing new advanced UAVs, "Shahedoriz" project success, claiming liberation of Shakhove/Volodymyrivka, SBU counter-intelligence success, new rail line, alleged Transneft strike, alleged aircraft relocation to NATO airfields, Croatian M-84 tanks, successful drone hunter-killer operations, elimination of RF contract soldier Kuzmin, Primorsk oil shipment suspension, Kadiivka strike, Toretsk sniper ops, confirmed successful SSO trench assault, successful "SKY RUSORIZ" drone operations, targeting of FPV "Zhduny" drones, UAF '3rd Army Corps' operations); emphasizing continued international support (e.g., US aid, Swedish aid, Rheinmetall production, high-level diplomatic meetings, productive talks with Polish Gen Staff, British/Polish FM visits, Prince Harry's visit, Zelenskyy's First Ladies Summit, new UK/Japan/EU sanctions, German call for long-range weapons, US pressure on G7 for oil tariffs, EU sanctions extension, Danish FM visit); exposing RF lies and disinformation (e.g., challenging Smolensk location, countering false claims about UAF drones, exposing RF propaganda videos, contradicting RF claims about Polish drone damage, strongly reacting to Trump's comments, with Polish FM Sikorski stating "This was not a mistake", countering RF narratives on Belgorod civilian casualties due to Pantsir booster); bolstering domestic and military morale (e.g., recognizing EW personnel, support for POW families, public solidarity, commemorating liberations, showcasing logistical support from civilian-military partnerships, celebrating individual valor like the DSHV soldier, humanitarian aid deliveries including body bags); framing RF actions as deliberate hybrid warfare (e.g., Zelenskyy on Polish drones); and emphasizing the human cost of the war due to RF aggression (e.g., Sumy security guard killed, residential destruction, graphic combat injury video, Sumy fatalities, graphic video of aftermath, tragedy in Nikopol, drone attack on civilian vehicle in Kharkiv). UAF is actively engaging in diplomatic efforts to maintain and strengthen alliances and counter divisive narratives from Hungary and Slovakia. UAF milbloggers (e.g., STERNENKO) track RF personnel losses, reflecting internal expectations for combat effectiveness. The Office of the Prosecutor General highlighting internal legal accountability (Poltava prison torture trial, humanitarian aid car sales detention, ex-commander corruption investigation, Ukrainian MP fraud investigation) counters RF narratives about Ukrainian corruption. "Оперативний ЗСУ" criticizes Trump, reflecting frustration and an effort to manage narrative surrounding US support. The promotion of Prince Harry's visit is a key counter-narrative to RF attempts to portray Ukraine as isolated. "Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація" showcases President Zelenskyy at the First Ladies Summit, a clear UAF IO effort. UAF continues to document RF combat losses, including specific individuals like Andriy Kuzmin, to counter RF morale. UAF milbloggers (e.g., ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) immediately amplify successful deep strikes into RF territory (Leningrad Oblast). "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares images and videos of a UAF vehicle undergoing repair, demonstrating transparency and commitment to maintenance. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's neutral updates on air raid alerts maintain public trust and provide accurate information. RBC-Ukraine highlights new train routes to Europe as a positive development, showcasing European integration. UAF reports on the "pause" in negotiations, presenting it neutrally or with implicit criticism of RF. STERNENKO reports donating to "rusoriz," a term implying the destruction of Russians, reinforcing nationalist sentiment and support for the war effort. UAF General Staff promotes a new digital document management course for Army+, showcasing modernization efforts. UAF sources like ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS immediately amplify successful strikes on occupied territory (Kadiivka). UAF General Staff and Coordination Staff for POWs report on internal support mechanisms, reinforcing public trust and morale. RBC-Ukraine reports on a shootout in Lviv, suggesting transparency in reporting internal challenges. "Оперативний ЗСУ" shares content on "Day without booze," likely a morale-boosting initiative. RBC-Ukraine reports a new state holiday, fostering national identity. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the National Police liquidating a scheme for profiting from humanitarian vehicles for UAF in Kyiv, demonstrating transparent anti-corruption efforts. "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" reports high-level command's attention to critical fronts, bolstering confidence. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's video about a relocated art school in a bomb shelter showcases civilian resilience. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Staff for POWs) emphasizes continued support for military families and information dissemination, highlighting ongoing efforts to address the human dimension of the conflict. Оперативний ЗСУ reporting on the Lviv shootout transparently manages internal security incidents. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА express gratitude for new UK sanctions, using diplomatic messaging to reinforce international support. "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" celebrating EW personnel contributes to military morale. "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" commemorating Oleksandr Dokukin fosters national unity and honors sacrifices. Оперативний ЗСУ amplifies Head of Bundestag Defense Committee Thomas Röwekamp stating Russian drones threatening NATO territory should be shot down over Ukraine, indicating a clear allied position. РБК-Україна reporting on young men leaving the country suggests UAF-aligned IO addressing a societal issue, potentially to galvanize action or support. RBC-Україна reports that Ukrainian specialists will train Poles to shoot down drones, but not in Ukraine, indicating a continued and transparent effort to enhance air defense capabilities with allies. The Coordination Staff for POWs is holding a meeting with families of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade (UAF) fighters, demonstrating UAF commitment to POW support and family welfare, a key morale factor. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing UAF '3rd Army Corps' operations and captured individuals, if verified, can be used for IO to demonstrate UAF combat effectiveness and adherence to Geneva Conventions. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА sharing video of a meeting with Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, discussing further support, defense aid, joint weapons production, and EU membership, highlights continued UAF diplomatic success and commitment to European integration. STERNENKO shares video of the UAF BAS Fenix unit working daily on Russian logistics in Donetsk Oblast, providing visual evidence of UAF operational success and morale. РБК-Україна reporting on the DBR investigation into MP Shevchenko demonstrates UAF's commitment to transparency and anti-corruption, bolstering public trust. Олександр Вілкул's messages and images ("Life Continues!") promote civilian resilience and normalcy, directly countering RF attempts to demoralize the population. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's regular operational information updates maintain transparency and public confidence.

• Public sentiment and morale factors:

  • Ukraine (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Public sentiment remains generally resilient, bolstered by military successes (HUR naval strike, successful drone interceptions, 890 RF personnel losses, deep strikes, logistical support to the front, DSHV valor stories, new UAVs, claims of liberated villages, SBU counter-intelligence success, new rail line, alleged Transneft strike, alleged aircraft relocation, Croatian M-84 tanks, successful drone hunter-killer operations, elimination of RF contract soldier Kuzmin, Primorsk oil shipment suspension, Kadiivka strike, Toretsk sniper ops, confirmed successful SSO trench assault, successful "SKY RUSORIZ" drone operations, targeting of FPV "Zhduny" drones, UAF '3rd Army Corps' operations), and continued international support (e.g., British/Polish FM visits, Prince Harry's visit, US Senate push for state sponsor of terrorism, First Ladies Summit, new UK/Japan/EU sanctions, German call for long-range weapons, US pressure on G7 for oil tariffs, EU sanctions extension, Danish FM visit). However, sustained RF deep strikes on civilian infrastructure (Sumy, Kramatorsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy residential areas, Nikopol region) and high civilian casualties (Yarova, Polohy Raion, Prymorske, Sumy security guard, Sumy residential areas, Bytytsia, graphic aftermath video, drone attack on civilian vehicle in Kharkiv) will put pressure on civilian morale. The loss of UAF Major Borovyk and the Su-27 is a blow to military morale but will likely be framed heroically. Continued efforts to support POW families and recognize military valor are critical for sustaining morale. Graphic videos of battlefield injuries (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) serve to galvanize support and highlight the sacrifices being made. National unity is reinforced by minute of silence tributes. Humanitarian aid efforts (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) highlight community support despite the grim reality. The "Rubizh" brigade's fundraising drive indicates a public willingness to support military units. Public dissatisfaction with Trump's comments (Оперативний ЗСУ) reflects the importance of perceived unwavering US political support. The detention of a woman selling humanitarian aid cars in Kyiv (Офіс Генерального прокурора) could negatively impact public trust in aid distribution if not handled transparently and swiftly, potentially dampening morale. Public fundraising for FPV drones and vehicles demonstrates strong morale and active participation in supporting the military. RBC-Ukraine reporting on rising food prices could add to civilian pressure. The investigation into corruption by an ex-commander in Lviv and the Ukrainian MP fraud investigation could impact public trust in institutions if not handled transparently. UAF government officials celebrating EW personnel contribute to a sense of national resilience and competence. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration highlighting winter preparations will reassure the public of ongoing efforts to protect them. Donation to "rusoriz" reflects strong nationalistic and anti-RF sentiment among a segment of the population. UAF General Staff promoting digital document management can boost morale by showing a commitment to modernization and efficiency. The Coordination Staff for the Treatment of Prisoners of War met with families of "Lyut" Assault Brigade fighters provides direct support, crucial for morale. RBC-Ukraine's report on a shootout in Lviv, while an internal security issue, could be framed transparently to maintain public trust. "Оперативний ЗСУ" posts about "Day without booze" could be a morale-boosting initiative. RBC-Ukraine reports a new state holiday, fostering national identity. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports on anti-corruption efforts concerning humanitarian aid, maintaining public trust. "Генеральний штаб ЗСУ" reports on high-level command visits, potentially boosting troop morale. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's video about a relocated art school in a bomb shelter showcases civilian resilience. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими's messaging on family support for POWs is critical for maintaining long-term morale and trust among military personnel and their families. Оперативний ЗСУ reporting on the Lviv shootout transparently manages internal security incidents. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА express gratitude for new UK sanctions, using diplomatic messaging to reinforce international support. "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" celebrating EW personnel contributes to military morale. "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" commemorating Oleksandr Dokukin fosters national unity and honors sacrifices. RBC-Україна reports Ukrainian specialists training Poles on drone interception, even if not in Ukraine, shows a positive cooperative effort which boosts morale. The Coordination Staff for POWs is meeting with families of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade (UAF) fighters, providing crucial support for families and maintaining morale within the armed forces. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing UAF '3rd Army Corps' operations and captured individuals, if verified and handled according to protocols, could boost UAF morale by demonstrating combat effectiveness and adherence to international law. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА sharing video of a meeting with Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, discussing further support, defense aid, joint weapons production, and EU membership, boosts morale by highlighting strong international backing and future prospects. STERNENKO video of the UAF BAS Fenix unit working daily on Russian logistics in Donetsk Oblast, by showing active combat success, boosts morale. РБК-Україна reporting on the DBR investigation into MP Shevchenko demonstrates commitment to transparency and anti-corruption, which helps maintain public trust and morale. Олександр Вілкул's messages ("Life Continues!") and images of civilian events actively contribute to positive public sentiment and resilience. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's regular operational information updates reinforce transparency and trust in leadership.
  • Russia (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): RF public sentiment is largely controlled by state propaganda, which projects military strength, internal stability, and blames Ukraine/West for conflict. Increases in military salaries aim to boost morale and retention. However, RF drone attacks and claims of destruction of UAF vehicles aim to show effectiveness. Unverified reports of neglected soldiers' graves could pose a challenge to morale if widely disseminated internally. Economic strains (e.g., ruble depreciation, market volatility, impact of UAF deep strikes on energy infrastructure, increased car service costs, new EU/UK sanctions, sanctions against defense sector) could indirectly impact public sentiment. Regional and local elections will be used to project stability (e.g., Moscow voting centers, polling stations named after war participants). Casualties in Belgorod and Bryansk Oblasts, amplified by governors and milbloggers, aim to rally patriotic sentiment and justify continued military action. The effectiveness of Russian homeland air defense (221 UAVs downed, 33 in latest wave) will be used to reassure the public, though significant flight disruptions at major airports (Pulkovo) could cause public frustration. Promotion of religious and nationalistic events seeks to rally public support and divert attention from negative developments. The internal corruption charges against a former Deputy Shoigu and the Tyurin criminal case could be a double-edged sword: projecting accountability but also revealing potential systemic issues. Celebrating electoral officials aims to project internal stability. The FSB detention of an alleged UAF financier and the Solovyev assassination plot will be used to reassure the public about internal security. The Myrotvorets listing of a Russian officer's son will be leveraged to rally public outrage and support for the SVO. The ASTRA report about the Pantsir booster causing civilian death in Belgorod could, if widely known, erode public trust in RF air defenses and the narrative of UAF sole responsibility, potentially impacting morale negatively or causing public questioning. The Bishkek earthquake, while unrelated, could distract some RF citizens. The lifting of Pskov airport restrictions may boost local morale. The death of Andriy Kuzmin, father of 12, near Byle (Kursk Oblast), if amplified by UAF IO, could further erode RF public morale about the human cost of the conflict. Celebration of "Archangel Spetsnaz" project leader aims to boost internal morale through heroism narratives. State media (TASS, Novosti Moskvy) reporting on Moscow's dry autumn aims to maintain an appearance of normalcy and stability. Promoting cultural events (Intervision) and consumer events (Moscow car giveaway) contribute to a sense of normalcy. Derogatory posts against Western leaders (Stubb) could resonate with anti-Western segments of the population. The Central Bank lowering interest rates could signal economic stability to the public. RF IO regarding the "pause" in negotiations aims to portray RF as reasonable while shifting blame for lack of progress. TASS reporting on VTB's lowered loan rates will be used to project economic stability and support for citizens. The criminal case against Andrei Tyurin (former RF MoD military representation head) could serve as a demonstration of accountability for the public. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's disinformation about a UAF commander could impact how some RF citizens perceive UAF leadership. "Воин DV" comments on Ukraine's delayed admission of territorial losses, which could resonate with RF citizens by reinforcing narratives of UAF weakness. TASS reports Sberbank lowering deposit rates, which might be interpreted as a positive economic signal by some. Bryansk Governor's posts on school openings aim to project normalcy and development locally. Aksakov's statement regarding further interest rate reductions projects economic confidence, which could boost public sentiment regarding the economy. The temporary unavailability of Alfa-Bank's mobile app could cause public frustration if widespread or prolonged, potentially impacting trust in financial institutions. "Два майора" internal political messaging regarding regional elections could impact public sentiment towards the ruling party. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" donation appeals and "Два майора" acknowledging donations suggest a reliance on public charity, which, if perceived as a systemic failure of state support, could negatively impact morale. "Воин DV"'s graphic video from Zaporizhzhia, while showcasing combat reality, could also contribute to negative morale if widely disseminated without proper framing. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники's message about travel bans could increase anxiety or resentment. "Север.Реалии" reporting on a Peterburg artist's administrative arrest could highlight issues of freedom of expression and detention conditions, potentially affecting public sentiment. TASS reports on the Elbrus cable car accident, which, while a civilian incident, could subtly impact public sentiment on safety and public services. TASS shares a video of Nabiullina discussing housing construction and prices, which, while intended to project stability, also highlights housing affordability challenges that could negatively impact public sentiment. TASS reports the Central Bank is concerned about unsubstantiated blocking of citizen funds, which could affect public trust in the banking system if not resolved. Новости Москвы advertising Alfa-Bank cashback for train tickets aims to boost consumer confidence and normalcy. Colonelcassad amplifying former Polish MEP's accusation against Ukraine regarding drones aims to shift public blame. Рыбарь's "Empty talks" post could reflect frustration with perceived diplomatic stagnation. TASS using a photo with the caption "I'm not going to protect anyone" seeks to resonate with narratives of self-preservation or abandonment by leaders. Филолог в засаде discussing "Дронница" could boost public confidence in RF technological development.
  • International (HIGH CONFIDENCE): International support for Ukraine remains strong, evidenced by continued military and financial aid, and diplomatic engagements. NATO's coordinated response to RF airspace incursions (Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania border closures, fighter jet deployments) demonstrates resolve, although the crisis also reveals potential for diplomatic friction among allies (e.g., Hungary, Slovakia, Trump's statements). Japanese sanctions indicate continued international pressure on RF. British and Polish Foreign Ministers' visits to Kyiv signal strong bilateral and multilateral support. Prince Harry's visit garners positive international media attention. The new EU and British sanctions underscore continued international pressure. The US Senate push to name Russia a state sponsor of terrorism further indicates sustained pressure. Polish FM Sikorski's direct rebuttal to Trump regarding drone incursions is a significant statement reinforcing NATO unity and resolve. Germany's call for long-range weapons for Ukraine signals continued strong support from a key European partner. US pressure on G7 countries regarding oil tariffs could gain momentum. The "pause" in negotiations is being closely watched, with various international actors attributing blame. Hungarian PM Orban's criticism of Ursula von der Leyen's course could be amplified by RF to demonstrate EU divisions. Maria Zakharova's strong statements about Kyiv and the West will be used to harden anti-Ukrainian and anti-Western sentiment internationally. The upcoming 19th package of EU sanctions will be a significant international development closely watched. The International Bobsleigh and Skeleton Federation's decision to exclude Russians from Olympic qualification demonstrates continued international isolation for RF. Germany's MFA summoning the Russian Ambassador regarding the drone incident in Poland highlights international diplomatic pressure on Russia due to its hybrid actions. Kotsnews's comment ("let's be the first to raise the stakes") reflects hawkish sentiment in some international circles that could fuel escalation narratives. Thomas Röwekamp's statement on shooting down Russian drones over Ukraine indicates an alignment of narratives between Ukraine and key NATO members. RBC-Україна reports that Ukrainian specialists will train Poles to shoot down drones, but not in Ukraine, signaling continued and strengthening international cooperation. The arrival of 38 US M1A2 Abrams tanks in Poland is a significant signal of NATO's resolve and enhanced capabilities to the international community. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА sharing video of a meeting with Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, discussing further support, highlights continued international diplomatic engagement for Ukraine.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most likely enemy courses of action (MLCOA)

• MLCOA 1 (Ground Offensive Reinforcement and Consolidation - Pokrovsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Lyman, Sumy, Konstantinovka, Dobropillya, Novopavlovsk): RF will intensify ground offensives on the Pokrovsk axis, attempting to clear UAF from urban areas of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and consolidate gains towards Myrnograd. Simultaneously, RF will commit significant forces to consolidate and expand the new salient in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye, Novomykolaivka area), aiming to complete the encirclement of Velykomykhailivka, and continue advances towards Novoivanivka. RF will exploit the claimed control of Kolodyazi and Kirovsk and continue advances on the Krasny Liman direction, with a focus on Predtechino and Pleshcheyevka to enable further advance on Konstantinovka. RF's 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment and other units will initiate or intensify offensive operations on the Sumy front (Yunakovka area) to draw UAF reserves, supported by army aviation, including "Anvar" special forces-led attacks. High-tempo probing attacks will continue on the Kupyansk and South Donetsk axes to fix UAF reserves and prevent redeployments. RF will continue employing snipers for counter-UAV operations and utilize fiber-optic FPV drones for precision strikes against UAF logistics. RF will integrate newly delivered and modernized armored vehicles into these ground operations and continue offensive operations in the Novopavlovsk direction. RF will also use FAB guided aerial bombs on UAF rear positions (Druzhkivka). RF FPV drone units (e.g., "Sparta" battalion) will continue to target UAF UAV control points and communications. RF ground units will continue combat training, including with AGS-17 Plamya. RF will continue active drone support for ground advances. RF will increasingly use FPV "Zhduny" drones for ambushes. The confirmed start of "West-2025" exercises will likely coincide with or support some level of offensive or deterrent activity, possibly involving multi-branch deployments. RF will also continue cross-border interdiction operations, particularly on the Bryansk-Chernihiv direction. (Confidence: HIGH)
• MLCOA 2 (Sustained Air/Missile Campaign Targeting Critical Infrastructure & Probing Homeland Defense): RF will conduct multiple waves of UAV strikes (30-60 drones per wave) and widespread guided aerial bomb (KAB) attacks, prioritizing Ukrainian energy, industrial, and logistical infrastructure, with continued ballistic missile threats from the north and Kursk Oblast, including against residential areas (e.g., Sumy Oblast, Zaporizhzhia, Leningrad Oblast, Druzhkivka). RF will aim to inflict maximum damage and civilian casualties in an attempt to erode morale. RF will also continue to conduct UAV incursions into Russian territory, likely for reconnaissance and to test UAF deep strike capabilities, while showcasing its enhanced air defense responses (e.g., claiming 221 UAVs downed) and amplifying claims of civilian casualties (e.g., Belgorod, Bryansk) but will attempt to redirect blame for collateral damage from its own systems (Belgorod Pantsir incident). RF will prioritize strikes on UAF UAV C2 and communications (Starlink) and artillery ammunition storage. RF will continue to test new drone systems, including those designed to evade EW. RF will also target UAF long-range missile production capabilities, as evidenced by Zakharova's statements. RF will likely continue to conduct limited drone attacks on sensitive targets within Russia (e.g., Smolensk NPP ancillary facilities) to demonstrate UAF capabilities to its domestic audience and to justify its own actions, while maintaining claims of no significant damage. RF will frame UAF deep strikes against sensitive Russian targets like nuclear power plants as "nuclear terrorism" for propaganda. RF will likely continue to downplay damage to sensitive targets like the Smolensk NPP via official channels like Росатом. (Confidence: HIGH)
• MLCOA 3 (Escalated Hybrid Operations and Information Warfare with Border Provocations): RF will continue to probe NATO airspace with smaller, coordinated groups of UAVs to test response thresholds and identify vulnerabilities. This will be accompanied by an an aggressive, multi-layered information campaign to deny responsibility for incursions (e.g., Poland drone damage pre-existing, Smolensk no damage), blame Ukraine (especially for civilian casualties in border regions like Bryansk, Belgorod, Kharkiv civilian vehicle), mock NATO's response, and amplify perceived disunity within the alliance (e.g., Trump's comments on Poland). RF will leverage the "West-2025" exercises for a show of force and internal propaganda, potentially staging border provocations involving Belarusian forces to maintain pressure on Poland and Lithuania, and projecting naval power in the Baltic/Barents Seas via Northern Fleet deployments (including Arctic Ocean) and in the Pacific via Pacific Fleet exercises. RF will also proactively frame battlefield developments (e.g., "looting" in Krasny Liman, "liberation" of Novopetrovskoye) and employ highly inflammatory narratives (e.g., TCC priest incident, SBU priest arrest, Myrotvorets listing of children/Kurtukova, Kuzminov's mother, father of murdered Ukrainian, blaming UAF for disrupting diplomacy, discrediting Patriot aid, Polish drone incident staging claims, derogatory posts about Western leaders, Danish rocket fuel production, Solovyev assassination plot, "Zelenskyy killing for Western money," Orban's criticism of von der Leyen, Zakharova's "bloody monster" Kyiv, UAF commander from Mariupol brigade) to control the narrative and demonize Ukrainian authorities. RF will also use internal security operations (e.g., FSB Klimovsk, Solovyev assassination plot, Tyurin corruption case) for propaganda and promote internal electoral processes (naming polling stations after war participants). RF will continue to leverage international events (e.g., Brazil, Trump's potential Uzbekistan visit) and blame UAF for disrupting diplomacy (Russia-US summit). RF will also actively work to discredit Western military aid (e.g., Danish rocket fuel production, "inoperable Patriot" claims) and counter Ukrainian IO efforts, including claims of "fake" videos. RF will continue to use external political statements (Philippot, Orban) to support its IO and attempt to undermine Western unity. RF will continue to use religious themes to boost military morale. RF will leverage the "pause" in negotiations by blaming European and Ukrainian leaders. RF will intensify propaganda efforts against Ukrainian officials' alleged hypocrisy (e.g., children abroad vs. calls for duty). RF will systematically frame UAF actions as "terrorist war" against Russian civilians. RF will leverage diplomatic actions (Germany summoning ambassador) to reinforce its IO narratives. RF IO will exploit US domestic news (Charlie Kirk murder suspect apprehension, identification of suspect Tyler Robinson) to further its narratives. RF IO will use internal political discussions (United Russia candidates) for narrative control. RF IO will use mobilization narratives (ban on leaving country) to control internal population. RF IO will target dissenting voices (Dmitry Bykov). RF will continue to use economic reporting (e.g., housing construction) and financial policy (citizen fund blocking) for domestic IO to project stability and reassurance. RF will also use consumer-focused promotions (Alfa-Bank cashback for train tickets) for normalcy IO. (Confidence: HIGH)

5.2. Most dangerous enemy courses of action (MDCOA)

• MDCOA 1 (Breakthrough and Deep Encirclement - Dnipropetrovsk & Sumy): RF achieves a decisive breakthrough from the Sosnovka/Novopetrovskoye/ Novomykolaivka salient, successfully encircling and isolating a significant UAF grouping in Velykomykhailivka, and rapidly advancing deeper into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, potentially towards Novoivanivka. Concurrently, a successful multi-battalion RF offensive from the Sumy direction, leveraging the 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment's advance and potentially motorcycle assault tactics and army aviation, could breach UAF defensive lines, threatening Sumy city and critical supply routes, forcing UAF to make difficult choices regarding strategic withdrawals and resource allocation, potentially leading to a collapse of defensive lines in both regions. This would be supported by a high tempo of offensive operations, as indicated by RF's internal assessments. This MDCOA is further supported by the confirmed large-scale "West-2025" exercises, which could serve as a cover or training ground for such a coordinated offensive. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
• MDCOA 2 (Coordinated Multi-National Hybrid Attack on NATO & Ukraine): RF orchestrates a large-scale, multi-national (RF/Belarus) hybrid attack targeting critical infrastructure in NATO border states (e.g., energy grids, transportation hubs, military installations) using a combination of drones, cyber attacks, and potentially special forces, aiming to overwhelm NATO's collective defense response and trigger an Article 5 scenario. This could coincide with a renewed, large-scale ground offensive in Ukraine, exploiting weakened UAF positions, possibly leveraging the "West-2025" exercises as a cover and demonstrating naval power projection from both Northern and Pacific Fleets, potentially with a long-term strategic aim of capturing Odesa and Mykolaiv. The alleged relocation of UAF military aircraft to Poland/Romania could be a precursor to this, indicating RF's intent to deny UAF air assets easy access to the battlefield. This could be further reinforced by the rumored testing of advanced EW-evading drones. This MDCOA could also include a more explicit threat or actual attack on a sensitive target like a nuclear power plant within NATO territory, designed to cause widespread panic and undermine political will. The German MFA summoning the Russian Ambassador for the drone incident in Poland indicates the increasing diplomatic sensitivity and potential for escalation of these hybrid incidents. The arrival of 38 US M1A2 Abrams tanks in Poland could be a trigger for, or a defensive measure against, such a scenario. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
• MDCOA 3 (Strategic Paralysis via Massed, Multi-Domain Strike with Chemical/Tactical Nuclear Threat): RF executes an even larger, highly coordinated multi-domain strike across Ukraine, combining an unprecedented number of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and UAVs (400+ targets) with simultaneous cyber attacks on Ukrainian C2 and critical infrastructure, aiming to achieve strategic paralysis. This could be accompanied by a credible threat of tactical chemical or nuclear weapon use against a non-combatant target to psychologically break Ukrainian resolve and force negotiations on RF terms. (Confidence: LOW)

5.3. Timeline estimates and decision points

• Next 24-48 Hours (Immediate Threat):

  • Ground Operations (Pokrovsk/Dnipropetrovsk/Lyman/Sumy/Konstantinovka/Dobropillya/Novopavlovsk): RF will likely attempt to consolidate gains in Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye, and Novomykolaivka and intensify pressure on Velykomykhailivka, potentially attempting an encirclement. Increased RF activity on the Sumy front (Yunakovka) is expected, along with consolidation and further advances from Kolodyazi and Kirovsk, supported by army aviation. Sustained pressure on Predtechino and Pleshcheyevka (Konstantinovka direction) is expected. Offensive operations in the Novopavlovsk direction (including towards Novoivanivka) will continue. UAF counter-offensive to clear Shakhove and Volodymyrivka will require consolidation and defensive preparation. Decision point for UAF is immediate counter-deployment or tactical withdrawal from Velykomykhailivka/Novomykolaivka/reinforcement of Sumy, Krasny Liman, Konstantinovka, Dobropillya, and Novopavlovsk defenses. UAF must quickly integrate newly received Croatian M-84 tanks into critical defensive sectors. UAF needs to be prepared for RF ground units actively hunting UAF drones. UAF must assess the impact of the Toretsk sniper operations on RF forces and exploit any resulting tactical advantages. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video and "Воин DV" video indicate active combat operations in various terrains. UAF must assess RF FPV drone operations (14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, "Vostok" Grouping) for tactical implications. UAF must prepare for continued intense artillery bombardment in the Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk area, as shown in "Сливочный каприз" video, including Vladimirovka, and adapt defenses in trench positions on the Zaporizhzhia direction (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС). UAF must prepare for increased use of FPV "Zhduny" drones (Оперативний ЗСУ). UAF must assess the impact of Russian border guard operations on the Bryansk-Chernihiv direction. UAF '3rd Army Corps' operations indicate active engagement with RF forces, requiring a decision point on exploitation or consolidation of gains. Zelenskiy / Official and КМВА meeting with Danish Foreign Minister indicates diplomatic efforts will continue to secure defense aid. STERNENKO video highlights continued UAF efforts against RF logistics. РБК-Україна reports DBR investigation into MP Shevchenko, requiring UAF to ensure transparency. Олександр Вілкул's civilian messaging indicates a focus on morale. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's 16:00 update requires rapid assessment and response.
  • Air Campaign: Continued high-volume UAV/KAB/missile attacks on energy and critical infrastructure, as well as residential areas across Ukraine (e.g., Sumy Oblast, Zaporizhzhia, Druzhkivka, Leningrad Oblast, Donetsk), with RF likely responding to UAF deep strikes with intensified aerial attacks. RF will continue targeting UAF UAV C2, communications (including Starlink antennas), and artillery logistics. UAF must anticipate potential follow-up RF drone activity in northern Kherson / Mykolaiv Oblast. Decision point for UAF is further dispersal of air defense assets or prioritization of targets.
  • NATO Border/RF Deep Strikes: Continued RF probing of NATO airspace, potentially with increased volume or more advanced drones. UAF deep strikes against RF territory (especially energy/military logistics, potentially including Vladimir Oblast and Smolensk NPP ancillary facilities) are likely to continue, drawing further RF air defense responses and disruptions to civilian air traffic. Decision point for NATO is escalation of ROE or direct defensive action against incursions. UAF must rapidly verify the Smolensk damage claims and the Vladimir Oblast Transneft strike. The Pskov Governor's information control indicates this is a high-priority issue for RF. RF will likely attempt to suppress or distort information regarding the Belgorod Pantsir incident. Росатом's statement implies a rapid RF response to control the narrative regarding the Smolensk NPP attack, which UAF needs to counter. Germany summoning the Russian Ambassador highlights the diplomatic urgency for NATO. The arrival of 38 US M1A2 Abrams tanks in Poland is a significant development for NATO's eastern flank and may influence RF's hybrid actions.
  • Information Environment: RF will continue aggressive IO campaigns leveraging new battlefield developments (Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye, Novomykolaivka, Kolodyazi, Kirovsk, Sumy, Predtechino/Pleshcheyevka, Pokrovsk-Myrnograd, Borovska Andriyivka, Novopavlovsk, Novoivanivka, Hryshyno), civilian casualties in Russia (Bryansk minibus, Belgorod, Kharkiv civilian vehicle), diplomatic incidents, and promoting narratives of UAF "looting" and impending withdrawals, while discrediting Polish drone claims and denying damage (Smolensk, Smolensk NPP), and amplifying former Polish MEP's accusations against Ukraine. Inflammatory narratives (TCC priest, SBU priest arrest, Myrotvorets listing of children/Kurtukova, Kuzminov's mother, father of murdered Ukrainian, blaming UAF for disrupting diplomacy, discrediting Patriot aid, Polish drone incident staging claims, derogatory posts about Western leaders, Danish rocket fuel production, Solovyev assassination plot, "Zelenskyy killing for Western money," Orban's criticism of von der Leyen, Zakharova's "bloody monster" Kyiv, UAF commander from Mariupol brigade, alleged hypocrisy of Ukrainian officials, "terrorist war" accusations, Charlie Kirk suspect identification) will be amplified. RF will also leverage the Myrotvorets listing of a Russian officer's child. RF will continue to exploit international political events (Brazil, Trump's potential Uzbekistan visit) and blame UAF for disrupting diplomacy. RF will use domestic events (e.g., election polling station names, cultural events, consumer promotions, Sberbank rate cuts, Bryansk school openings, Aksakov's economic projections, Nabiullina's housing comments, Alfa-Bank cashback) to normalize the conflict. RF will also actively discredit Western military aid (Patriot claims, Danish rocket fuel production) and counter UAF deep strike narratives. RF will continue to use external political statements to support its IO and attempts to undermine Western unity. RF will frame the "pause" in negotiations to its advantage. Decision point for UAF is to proactively counter RF narratives, amplify its own successes (e.g., 890 RF losses, deep strikes, logistical support to front, DSHV valor, liberated villages, SBU counter-intelligence, new rail line, alleged Transneft strike, alleged aircraft relocation, countering Pantsir incident blame, documenting RF losses like Kuzmin, Croatian M-84 tanks, successful drone hunter-killer ops, Primorsk oil shipment suspension, Kadiivka strike, Toretsk sniper ops, destruction of military vehicles in RF milblogger video, successful SSO trench assault, successful "SKY RUSORIZ" drone operations, targeting of FPV "Zhduny" drones, UAF '3rd Army Corps' operations), and coordinate messaging with NATO allies during high-level visits, leveraging Prince Harry's visit and the First Ladies Summit, as well as statements by Polish FM Sikorski, and Germany's call for long-range weapons. UAF will need to address economic pressures on its population (food prices) transparently and with solutions. UAF General Staff IO will highlight modernization efforts (Army+ SEDO course). UAF will promote new state holidays and transparent anti-corruption efforts (humanitarian aid cars, MP fraud, NABU official detention). UAF needs to quickly counter RF milblogger narratives regarding UAF territorial losses and leadership. UAF needs to transparently address internal security incidents (Lviv shootout). UAF needs to counter RF IO on Ukrainian officials' alleged hypocrisy. UAF must address the messaging from Coordination Staff for POWs to maintain morale. UAF needs to monitor and respond to RF IO exploiting US domestic news (Charlie Kirk murder). UAF needs to counter RF IO on mobilization and draft evasion schemes. UAF needs to monitor RF internal political narratives (United Russia candidates) for broader implications. UAF needs to amplify diplomatic successes, such as training Poles on drone interception.

• Next 72 Hours (Short-Term Escalation):

  • Ground: If successful in Velykomykhailivka, Novopetrovskoye, Novomykolaivka, Krasny Liman/Kirovsk, Konstantinovka, Novopavlovsk or on the Sumy front, RF may attempt to exploit these salients further, potentially integrating newly delivered armored vehicles. If UAF successfully consolidates Dobropillya gains, it may open opportunities for further local counter-offensives. If repelled, RF will likely reinforce and re-evaluate, but maintain pressure. RF's internal assessment of offensive tempo suggests they will aim to maintain or increase this pace. The large-scale "West-2025" exercises may see a heightened state of readiness or direct application of rehearsed tactics, posing an increased threat to Ukraine and NATO.
  • Air: RF could initiate another massed air strike (200+ targets) if previous attacks degrade UAF air defenses sufficiently or in response to UAF deep strikes. The testing of EW-evading drones could lead to early deployment if successful.
  • Hybrid: Continued and potentially more overt hybrid operations against NATO, possibly using conventional forces in Belarus to apply pressure on Polish/Lithuanian borders, coinciding with "West-2025" exercises and naval power projection from both Northern and Pacific Fleets (including Arctic Ocean). The claimed relocation of UAF aircraft to Poland/Romania will likely be a key IO and operational consideration for RF in this timeframe. Escalation of attacks on sensitive targets in Russia, such as the Smolensk NPP incident, could trigger a more severe RF response against Ukrainian critical infrastructure. The German MFA summoning the Russian Ambassador for the drone incident in Poland indicates the increasing diplomatic sensitivity and potential for escalation of these hybrid incidents. The arrival of 38 US M1A2 Abrams tanks in Poland could be a trigger for, or a defensive measure against, such a scenario.
  • Diplomatic: Expect heightened diplomatic activity and potential for emergency NATO consultations if hybrid actions escalate significantly. Continued high-level visits to Kyiv will aim to solidify support. New EU and UK sanctions will come into effect, likely drawing a strong RF response, particularly against its defense sector. Germany's push for stricter visa restrictions will become a key diplomatic issue. US pressure on G7 countries regarding oil tariffs could gain momentum. The "pause" in negotiations will likely be a subject of intense diplomatic maneuvering and blame-shifting. The upcoming 19th package of EU sanctions on September 17 will be a key event.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize Immediate Defensive Reinforcement for Velykomykhailivka, Novomykolaivka, Novopetrovskoye, Sumy Front, Krasny Liman, Konstantinovka, Dobropillya, and Novopavlovsk Directions: Immediately redeploy available combat-effective reserves (manpower, artillery, armor, including anti-armor assets) to establish a hardened defensive perimeter and counter-encirclement capability around Velykomykhailivka, Novomykolaivka, and Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Critically reinforce UAF positions on the Sumy front, particularly in the Yunakovka area, and establish strong defensive lines against advances from Kolodyazi and Kirovsk on the Krasny Liman direction. Reinforce defenses around Predtechino and Pleshcheyevka to halt advances on Konstantinovka. Support UAF forces consolidating gains in Shakhove and Volodymyrivka on the Dobropillya direction. Monitor and prepare defenses for RF activity in the Novopavlovsk direction (including Novoivanivka). Prioritize close air support and anti-armor assets for these critical sectors. Assess the impact and potential deployment of newly delivered RF BMP-3s and modernized BMD-2s in these critical areas and adapt defenses accordingly. Rapidly integrate new Croatian M-84 tanks into these critical defensive sectors. (PIR 1.4: CRITICAL: Sosnovka BDA and UAF posture in Velykomykhailivka; CRITICAL: RF 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment strength and UAF posture in Sumy; HIGH: Status of Kolodyazi and RF intentions; CRITICAL: Kirovsk BDA; CRITICAL: Konstantinovka mechanized offensive; CRITICAL: Sumy village BDA; CRITICAL: Shakhove/Volodymyrivka BDA; MEDIUM: New RF armored vehicles; MEDIUM: Kharkiv/Iziumskyi aviation ops; CRITICAL: Novomykolaivka BDA; CRITICAL: Novopetrovskoye BDA; MEDIUM: Novopavlovsk map details; CRITICAL: Novoivanivka map details; CRITICAL: DeepState map update; CRITICAL: Croatian M-84 tanks; CRITICAL: "Anvar" special forces Sumy convoy attack; CRITICAL: Toretsk sniper ops; CRITICAL: New "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video; CRITICAL: "Сливочный каприз" artillery video; NEW: CRITICAL: RF FPV drone operations (14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, "Vostok" Grouping) targeting light vehicles/personnel; NEW: CRITICAL: SSO trench assault BDA on Zaporizhzhia direction; NEW: CRITICAL: RF FPV "Zhduny" drones tactical applications; NEW: CRITICAL: RF reactive artillery BDA; NEW: CRITICAL: Niva vehicle status and role; NEW: CRITICAL: Russian border guard operations BDA (Bryansk-Chernihiv); NEW: CRITICAL: UAF '3rd Army Corps' operations BDA).
2. Expedite Advanced Air Defense Deployment to Critical Infrastructure and Western/Central Ukraine, and Enhance Battlefield Air Defense: Request immediate acceleration of Western air defense system deliveries (e.g., Patriot, NASAMS) and munitions, prioritizing deployment to critical energy, DIB, and national C2 nodes, particularly in Western and Central Ukraine. Coordinate with NATO for enhanced real-time intelligence sharing on RF strike packages. Simultaneously, enhance forward-deployed tactical air defense systems to protect ground forces and C2 nodes from RF guided aerial bombs and FPV drones, especially in the Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Mykolaiv directions. Implement rapid counter-measures against RF sniper-drone tactics. Actively counter RF FAB guided aerial bomb strikes on rear areas. Implement countermeasures against RF's claimed new EW-evading drones. Task UAF Air Force and G2 to conduct a post-action review of the Su-27 loss, identify the threat system, and adjust SEAD planning. Prepare for potential RF targeting of nuclear facilities and ensure robust air defense and protective measures are in place for such sites, and prepare counter-IO for RF "nuclear terrorism" narratives. Leverage Росатом's downplaying of damage to the Smolensk NPP for counter-IO. (PIR 1.4: CRITICAL: DIB facilities BDA; HIGH: RF sniper-drone tactics; HIGH: Druzhkivka KAB BDA; HIGH: RF EW-evading drone capabilities; CRITICAL: Su-27 loss attribution; CRITICAL: Smolensk NPP BDA; NEW: CRITICAL: Smolensk NPP BDA (Росатом claim verification); NEW: HIGH: "SKY RUSORIZ" project effectiveness).
3. Intensify Deep Strike Operations Against RF Logistical Hubs, Energy Infrastructure, and Airfields with Focus on NW RF, and Rapid BDA: Capitalize on recent successes (Primorsk oil depot/pumping station) by planning and executing follow-on deep strike operations against known RF fuel and ammunition depots, energy infrastructure (refineries, ports, LUKOIL facilities, Transneft pumping stations), transportation hubs (rail, port), and airfields to disrupt RF's ability to sustain multi-axis offensives and air campaigns. Prioritize targets in Northwestern Russia to maximize disruption to critical supply lines supporting the war effort and to increase pressure on RF's homeland air defense. Crucially, establish immediate, independent BDA verification for all deep strikes, especially in Smolensk and Vladimir Oblast, to counter RF denial narratives. Leverage the claimed oil shipment suspension from Primorsk for IO purposes. Plan and execute targeted strikes against RF command posts in occupied territories (e.g., Kadiivka). (PIR 1.4: CRITICAL: Smolensk, Primorsk BDA; CRITICAL: Transneft Vladimir Oblast BDA; CRITICAL: Kadiivka strike BDA; CRITICAL: Smolensk NPP BDA; NEW: CRITICAL: Transneft Vladimir Oblast BDA (KіберБорошно analysis verification)).
4. Launch Coordinated IO Campaign to Counter RF Narratives on Civilian Casualties, NATO Disunity, Battlefield Claims, and Inflammatory Content: Immediately task STRATCOM to develop and disseminate targeted information products. Highlight confirmed RF logistical vulnerabilities and casualties from UAF strikes (e.g., 890 RF personnel, UAF deep strike successes, graphic aftermath video, claimed Transneft strike, claimed aircraft relocation, RF contract soldier Kuzmin's elimination, Primorsk oil shipment suspension, Kadiivka strike, Toretsk sniper ops, destruction of military vehicles in RF milblogger video, successful SSO trench assault, successful "SKY RUSORIZ" drone operations, targeting of FPV "Zhduny" drones, UAF '3rd Army Corps' operations). Simultaneously, proactively counter RF narratives on UAF targeting civilians in Russia (especially regarding the Bryansk minibus and Belgorod casualties) by providing verifiable evidence of RF targeting Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure (e.g., Sumy residential areas, Bytytsia fatalities, Nikopol tragedy, drone attack on civilian vehicle in Kharkiv, energy facility attacks), and crucially, leverage the Belgorod Pantsir incident to expose RF's own responsibility for civilian casualties in its territory. Emphasize allied military cooperation and mutual defense commitments to counter claims of NATO disunity (e.g., Trump's comments, strongly amplify Polish FM Sikorski's statement). Actively discredit RF claims of UAF "looting" and impending withdrawals by showcasing UAF resilience and successful defense. Rapidly address and expose inflammatory RF narratives (e.g., TCC priest incident, Myrotvorets listing of children/Kurtukova, Kuzminov's mother, father of murdered Ukrainian, blaming UAF for disrupting diplomacy, discrediting Patriot aid, Polish drone incident staging claims, derogatory posts about Western leaders, Danish rocket fuel production, Solovyev assassination plot, "Zelenskyy killing for Western money," Orban's criticism of von der Leyen, Zakharova's "bloody monster" Kyiv, UAF commander from Mariupol brigade, alleged hypocrisy of Ukrainian officials, "terrorist war" accusations, Charlie Kirk suspect identification, former Polish MEP's accusations) as propaganda. Coordinate messaging with Polish, British, and other allied counterparts during ongoing high-level diplomatic visits (Prince Harry, FMs), leveraging the First Ladies Summit for positive messaging. Counter RF narratives on the "pause" in negotiations. Highlight UAF modernization efforts (Army+ SEDO course). Promote new state holidays and transparent anti-corruption efforts (humanitarian aid cars, MP fraud, NABU official detention). NEW: Actively counter RF milblogger narratives regarding UAF territorial losses and leadership. NEW: Highlight civilian resilience and adaptation efforts (relocated school in bomb shelter, Olexandr Vilkul's "Life Continues!" messaging). NEW: Transparently address internal security incidents (Lviv shootout). NEW: Provide support and information for families of POWs/missing persons (Coordination Staff for POWs messaging). NEW: Actively counter RF IO exploiting US domestic news (Charlie Kirk murder). NEW: Monitor and counter RF IO on mobilization and draft evasion. NEW: Highlight memorials to fallen UAF defenders to counter RF narratives and boost morale. NEW: Emphasize positive outcomes from diplomatic meetings (Danish FM visit) and anti-corruption efforts (DBR investigation). (PIR 1.4: CRITICAL: RF logistics, NATO ROE, RF IO narratives; CRITICAL: Graphic aftermath video; NEW: Belgorod Pantsir incident; NEW: Transneft Vladimir Oblast BDA; NEW: UAF aircraft relocation; NEW: RF IO on diplomacy, Myrotvorets/Kurtukova, Kuzminov, father of Ukrainian; NEW: Danish rocket fuel production; NEW: Solovyev assassination plot; NEW: "Zelenskyy killing for Western money"; NEW: Kadiivka strike BDA; NEW: Toretsk sniper ops; NEW: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video; NEW: "Сливочный каприз" artillery video; NEW: "Воин DV" comment; NEW: UAF anti-corruption efforts; NEW: Ukrainian MP fraud; NEW: UAF relocated school; NEW: CRITICAL: RF FPV drone operations (14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, "Vostok" Grouping); NEW: CRITICAL: SSO trench assault BDA on Zaporizhzhia direction; NEW: CRITICAL: RF FPV "Zhduny" drones tactical applications; NEW: CRITICAL: Lviv shootout; NEW: CRITICAL: Росатом Smolensk NPP claim; NEW: MEDIUM: NABU official detention; NEW: HIGH: Charlie Kirk murder IO; NEW: HIGH: Mobilization ban IO; NEW: HIGH: Dmitry Bykov targeting IO; NEW: HIGH: UAF memorial for Dokukin; NEW: HIGH: Charlie Kirk suspect identification; NEW: MEDIUM: DBR investigation MP Shevchenko).
5. Conduct Comprehensive Review of Drone Combat Doctrine, Counter-UAV Capabilities, and Procurement, Including Anti-Motorcycle Tactics: Task UAF G6 and Air Force to immediately review current drone combat doctrine, particularly regarding drone-on-drone engagements and anti-drone defenses. Allocate resources for accelerated procurement and development of advanced counter-UAV systems, EW capabilities, and reactive drones to maintain air superiority in the tactical and operational domains against both RF kamikaze drones and reconnaissance UAVs, including counter-measures for RF FPV drone ambushes on UAF transport in forest belts (Kharkiv, Chernihiv). Develop and disseminate specific anti-motorcycle assault tactics and deploy appropriate assets (e.g., anti-personnel mines, heavy machine guns, FPV drones) to identified high-risk areas. Incorporate lessons learned from RF sniper tactics against "Baba Yaga" drones. Investigate the claimed destruction of UAF 155mm charges for lessons learned. (PIR 1.4: HIGH: Drone-on-drone combat, reactive drones; CRITICAL: