Situation Report

SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - 120900Z SEP 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (Confidence: HIGH)

RF forces maintain multi-axis pressure, with an emphasis on the Pokrovsk axis where urban combat continues in Muravka and Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). RF forces of the "Vostok" Grouping have "liberated" Sosnovka and Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, aiming to enhance encirclement of a UAF grouping in Velykomykhailivka. Combat is reported south of Stepnohirsk with active RF aviation support. On the Lyman axis, RF claims to be assaulting Zarechnoye and reports activity near Kolodyazi. Colonelcassad reports RF forces have established control over Kolodyazi and are advancing on the Krasny Liman direction. TASS further reports RF troops have "practically dislodged" UAF from Kirovsk on the Krasny Liman direction, with UAF suffering heavy losses, which, if true, would significantly consolidate RF control over this sector. Intense combat continues near Krasny Liman, DPR, with the RF 103rd Regiment advancing towards Konstantinovka, now reportedly 7 km from the city. On the Siverske direction, RF forces claim control of approximately 50% of Pereyizne and advances in the Kremensky forests, taking control of approximately 3 km of the administrative border. RF UAVs are establishing "fire control" over UAF logistical routes near Krasny Liman and Izium-Barvinkove, and claim control of 1.5 km of a supply route in Kupyansk. RF claims "liberation" of Zelenyi Hai and fighting for Torske, indicating sustained offensive operations on the Lyman direction. RF forces have "expelled the enemy from Katerynivka" and continue to advance in the Konstantinovka direction, near Kleban-Byk and Pleshcheyevka, maintaining pressure on this critical UAF defensive axis. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) reports RF forces are advancing towards Konstantinovka, breaking through enemy defenses near Predtechino and Pleshcheyevka, confirming continued pressure on the Konstantinovka axis. Offensive action near Chasiv Yar involves airborne units engaging enemy infantry. Рыбарь (RF milblogger) provides a tactical analysis video documenting RF offensive operations and territorial gains in the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd agglomeration area between 24 AUG and 10 SEP 25, confirming sustained pressure and advances. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" (UAF milblogger) claims Ukrainian Defense Forces (СОУ) have "cleared and liberated" the villages of Shakhove and Volodymyrivka on the Dobropillya direction. This, if verified, represents a UAF tactical success and potentially reverses some RF gains. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" (RF milblogger) projects the Special Military Operation (SVO) will conclude in 2027 with the capture of Odesa and Mykolaiv, indicating long-term RF strategic aspirations. TASS reports Russian forces have "practically dislodged" UAF from the settlement of Novomykolaivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, according to Russian security forces. This is a new and significant claim, indicating further RF advances and expansion of the Dnipropetrovsk salient. NEW: "Z комитет + карта СВО" shares multiple map images showing advances around Velykomykhailivka and Novoivanivka, reinforcing RF claims of continued pressure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Novopavlivka direction. NEW: DeepState map update indicates changes, requiring further analysis for specifics.

GSU reports indicate a significant concentration of RF forces and 130 combat engagements over the past 24 hours on the Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka, and Shakhtarske directions, with UAF repelling numerous attacks. RF is attempting to advance near Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, and claims to have repelled a UAF counterattack on the left bank of the Vovcha River, occupying four technical buildings. RF Special Forces (14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, "Sida" detachment of AHMAT, "Anvar" detachment) are actively supporting ground assaults on the South Donetsk direction and conducting precision strikes against UAF artillery on the Sumy direction, with "Anvar" operating in buffer zones along the Kharkiv and Chernihiv borders. RF is reportedly bringing up reserves to Vovchansk. The Kherson-Mykolaiv highway is claimed to be under RF fire control. UAF forces successfully destroyed a bridge over the Siverskyi Donets river near Nova Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, Russia, using FPV drones and pre-planted mines, disrupting RF logistical movement. Widespread destruction in Vovchansk confirms heavy combat and significant damage. RF forces continue FPV drone operations targeting UAF logistics and personnel across multiple sectors. Drone footage indicates RF strikes on trenches, a command post, and a communications tower on the Rubtsovsk direction, with suggested electronic warfare activity against "STARLINK." RF forces are actively countering UAF attempts to regain Udachnoye, displaying a presence in previously contested structures. RF "Молния-2" UAVs reportedly struck a UAF temporary deployment point (PVD) in Sumy Oblast. RF UAV operators are disrupting UAF rotations in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF reports one civilian killed in Polohy Raion due to enemy attacks. Oleg Sinegubov, Governor of Kharkiv Oblast, reports 18 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were subjected to enemy attacks over the past day, confirming widespread and persistent RF pressure in the region. "Воин DV" (RF milblogger) shares thermal drone footage of 35th Army Special Forces (Vostok Grouping) targeting UAF personnel with FPV drones and grenade drops in the Polohy direction, indicating continued RF FPV drone effectiveness and localized ground pressure. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" (RF milblogger) shares video of army aviation operations in Kharkiv Oblast, Iziumskyi district, near Borovska Andriyivka, targeting areas in support of the 1st Tank Army's assault units, indicating concentrated RF air support for ground advances in this sector. "Народная милиция ДНР" shares video of RF 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (ORB) destroying UAF communications antenna/Starlink in a rural area, confirming continued RF counter-C2 efforts. Liveuamap Source reports on daily clashes across South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv), Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, and Kherson directions, with UAF repelling numerous attacks, underscoring the widespread nature of combat. NEW: Colonelcassad reports FPV drone operators from "Sparta" battalion, 51st Guards Combined Arms Army, destroyed two UAF UAV control points and a communication antenna near Dimitrov. This is a significant claim regarding counter-UAF C2. NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that during raid actions by "Morok" assault battalion, 225th Separate Assault Regiment, in the rear of the RF 810th Brigade, remote mining by "Pentagon" pilots stopped an RF attempt to intercept UAF. This suggests effective UAF counter-interdiction and FPV drone support for ground operations. NEW: Oleg Sinegubov, Governor of Kharkiv Oblast, reports RF attacked a civilian vehicle with a drone in Shevchenkivska community, confirming continued RF targeting of civilian transport.

Deep strikes persist on Ukrainian energy, industrial, and civilian infrastructure across 15 oblasts. Confirmed damage to the Sumy Oblast Administration (OVA) building, Ukrainian Government Headquarters in Kyiv, Sokil ice arena, Cabinet of Ministers building, and the Trypilska TPP. The death toll from the aviation bomb strike on Yarova, Donetsk Oblast, has risen to 25. Civilian casualties and damage from combined missile and drone attacks are confirmed in Vinnytsia (31 injured), Khmelnytskyi (sewing factory destroyed, 3 injured), Zhytomyr (1 killed, 5 injured), and Kramatorsk (central square, residential areas, market hit by drones). An energy object in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast has been hit by drones. Zaporizhzhia suffered a drone attack on a residential building, injuring two civilians, with four additional wounded reported from attacks on Prymorske and Zaporizhzhia. The 68-year-old man severely injured in a drone strike on Prymorske yesterday has died in hospital. Mykolaiv has experienced drone threats and explosions. Berdychiv (Zhytomyr Oblast) was hit by missile strikes. An enemy strike on an educational institution and the Holy Resurrection Cathedral in Sumy is confirmed. A "Shahed" drone hit one of Chernihiv's enterprises, causing a fire. Strikes on Nikopol region continued all day, affecting Nikopol, Marhanets, Pokrovsk, Myrove, and Chervonohryhorivka communities with artillery and drones. Acting Mayor of Sumy, Artem Kobzar, confirms two drone strikes on a non-residential building in Sumy, with casualty information being clarified. RBC-Ukraine reports RF struck a "promyslova zona" (industrial zone) on the outskirts of Sumy with drones. Explosions and a significant fire are reported at an oil depot in Smolensk Oblast and Primorsk port in Leningrad Oblast, attributed to UAF drone attacks. RBC-Ukraine reports an update, confirming one security guard killed under the rubble in Sumy. RBC-Ukraine reports RF launched missiles at Sumy Oblast, causing fatalities and destruction in residential areas, confirming continued RF missile targeting of civilian populations. RBC-Ukraine reports 2 people killed and 5 houses destroyed in a village in Sumy Oblast due to RF strike. ASTRA reports three people killed after a Russian attack in Sumy Oblast, as confirmed by local authorities. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF milblogger) reports two people killed and five injured in the village of Bytytsia, Sumy Oblast, as a result of a missile strike, confirming the ASTRA report and specifying the location. STERNENKO (UAF milblogger) and Sumy Oblast Military Administration (OVA) confirm one person killed in Sumy due to RF drone strike this morning. "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" reports "Another tragedy in Nikopol region, caused by enemy terror." The accompanying images, however, do not show military targets or direct damage, but rather a neglected civilian vehicle. This implies an ongoing, if less severe, impact on civilian life from RF actions, though the immediate assessment of the photos indicates no direct military significance. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares video of an alleged UAV strike on a Transneft oil pumping station "Vtorovo" in Vladimir Oblast, Russia, if verified, this represents a significant expansion of UAF deep strike range and target type. Colonelcassad reports FAB guided aerial bomb strikes on UAF positions in Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, indicating continued RF use of KABs on rear areas. TASS reports 1 killed, 6 wounded in Kherson Oblast due to UAF shelling, which RF will use for IO. ASTRA reports the woman killed in Belgorod this morning died from the impact of a "Pantsir" air defense missile booster, confirming RF air defense malfunction/collateral damage and contradicting earlier RF claims. NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports an "explosive morning" in Leningrad Oblast, with videos of explosions, reinforcing previous UAF deep strike claims. NEW: Colonelcassad provides a "chronicle of strikes on Ukraine" for 11-12 September, indicating ongoing RF analysis and reporting of its own strike activities.

Reports indicate at least eight explosions in occupied Donetsk, with TASS claiming UAF missile attacks repelled. Mash on Donbas reports power outages in Kyivskyi district of Donetsk and damaged windows in a traumatology hospital and nearby residential buildings, with a new video claiming a multi-apartment building in Donetsk was hit, "presumably by NATO MLRS." UAF FPV drones reportedly attacked a civilian vehicle near Polyana, Starodubsky Municipal District, Belgorod Oblast, Russia. ASTRA reports 6 people were injured in attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Belgorod Oblast, with a Pyaterochka supermarket among the affected targets. An ammunition depot in occupied Luhansk is also reported to be exploding due to UAF drone strikes. An attack by over 30 UAVs was repelled in three municipalities of Rostov Oblast, causing damage to a private house and two cars, but no casualties. A massive drone attack was launched on Leningrad Oblast overnight, with a fire reported on a vessel in Primorsk port, which has since been extinguished. ASTRA reports a fire on a pumping station in Primorsk was also extinguished, without casualties. TASS reports one person killed and 24 injured over two days in Belgorod Oblast from UAF attacks. Russian MoD claims to have shot down 221 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions overnight, with 9 of them over the Moscow region. Russian Governor Gladkov (Belgorod Oblast) reports 1 killed, 24 injured in Belgorod Oblast over two days from UAF attacks. Bryansk Oblast Governor reports UAF strikes on a passenger minibus, injuring 5 people, including 2 "Bars-Bryansk" fighters. WarGonzo further clarifies seven people wounded in a mass drone attack on Bryansk Oblast. Mash on Donbas reports a large traffic jam towards Khartsyzk due to an accident, with a military-style truck present, potentially indicating local logistical disruption or increased security measures for RF forces. Поддубный (RF milblogger) reports two people killed in Belgorod Oblast due to UAF drone attacks over the past three days, specifically mentioning a woman killed this morning in Belgorod city, and overall 24 injured, reiterating and amplifying previous reports of civilian casualties. ASTRA reports the mayor of Belgorod confirms a woman killed by a UAF strike in Belgorod. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (UAF milblogger) shares graphic video footage depicting the aftermath of what appears to be an artillery strike in a rural area, showing multiple deceased and dismembered individuals. The context implies high-casualty combat or indiscriminate targeting of personnel, further underscoring the brutality of the conflict.

UAV activity remains extremely high. UAF Air Force reports 62 of 66 enemy UAV targets were shot down/suppressed overnight. Groups of enemy UAVs are entering southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast from Temporarily Occupied Territories (TOT), course - north/northwest, and additional KABs are launched on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. RF claims destruction of 225 Ukrainian UAVs, one Neptune guided missile, and three HIMARS MLRS rockets over the past day. RF reconnaissance UAVs are active in the Black Sea towards Odesa and in Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts. RF drones are confirmed active across central, western, and northern Ukraine. UAF Air Force reports guided aerial bombs launched on Donetsk Oblast and Sumy Oblast. A RF kamikaze drone "Upyr" was reported engaging a UAF interceptor drone near Prykolotne, Kharkiv Oblast. UAF 'Lazar' unit utilized FPV drones to destroy a bridge near Nova Tavolzhanka. A Ukrainian "Yozhka" drone was reportedly shot down near Lyman. Reconnaissance UAVs are reported in central Chernihiv Oblast. A captured Ukrainian reconnaissance drone ("Shark") was showcased, claimed to be destroyed by RF "Fever" fighters. UAF thermal imaging drone video shows a series of artillery strikes impacting Russian military positions in Kharkiv direction. RF drone footage showcases identification and engagement of various enemy assets including a pickup truck, a Leopard-1 tank, artillery, an unknown vehicle, and an 'BABA-YAGA' drone. UAF General Staff reports RF combat losses over the last 24 hours include 890 personnel. UAF General Staff reports 890 RF personnel eliminated over the past 24 hours (Sept 11-12). UAF General Staff provides a tactical map analysis of enemy failed attempts to advance. RF milblogger Colonelcassad presents video of FPV drone operations targeting UAF transport in forest belts of Chernihiv Oblast. Ukrainian Defense Forces (DSHV) share video of RF "motorcycle assaults," depicting both RF tactics and UAF counter-engagement. UAF Air Force reports 33 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed, indicating continued air defense effectiveness against persistent RF drone attacks. RBC-Ukraine reports RF launched 40 drones overnight, including 20 Shaheds, with 33 shot down. RF milblogger Colonelcassad presents video evidence of RF snipers successfully downing Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" heavy strike drones on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. UAF 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" shares video of new advanced UAVs being deployed. Colonelcassad reports 221 Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted and destroyed by RF air defense overnight. This is a significant claim, almost matching the previous RF MOD claim. ASTRA reports the Ukrainian Air Force states Russia attacked with 40 drones overnight. UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity in northern Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, indicating continued ISR pressure on the northern border. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports air strike warnings for Zaporizhzhia, indicating continued aerial threat. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares multiple videos depicting night-time explosions and missile trails, including an alleged UAV strike on Primorsk Port and a significant explosion in an urban/industrial area, reinforcing UAF deep strike claims. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports new reconnaissance UAV activity on the north of Chernihiv and east of Sumy Oblasts, indicating persistent RF ISR. NEW: Kotsnews reports RF is testing a "heavy drone evading EW," potentially indicating new RF drone development.

Ukrainian HUR (Main Intelligence Directorate) units successfully struck and disabled an RF Black Sea Fleet vessel (Project MPSV07) near Novorossiysk. Russian channels are circulating video of a missile attack on artillery depots of RF's "Dnipro" Grouping of Forces located in Sonyachna Dolyna near Sudak in occupied Crimea. Ukrainian "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares multiple videos and text suggesting successful UAF drone attacks causing fires and explosions in Smolensk and Leningrad Oblasts, including a LUKOIL facility and Primorsk. The 46th Separate Airmobile Podilsky Brigade of the UAF DSHV shares photos celebrating a soldier who "burned 16 tanks and returned every time after being wounded," an internal UAF morale-boosting message. Colonelcassad shares video claiming an optical fiber FPV drone "VT-40" destroyed a storage site of 155mm M203A1 propelling charges, with a stated range of 30km. This, if verified, demonstrates effective RF counter-battery intelligence and drone-based targeting of UAF artillery logistics. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" and TASS report new batches of BMP-3s with enhanced protection kits and BMD-2s (after overhaul and modernization) have been delivered to RF troops, indicating sustained military production and improved armored vehicle capabilities. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) provides a series of photos under the caption "#Филия," which are tactical map screenshots of the Novopavlovsk direction. These images appear to depict Russian advances and territorial control in this area, indicating ongoing offensive operations or consolidation of gains, though the specific details of the map legend and symbols are not fully discernable without further context. "Воин DV" (RF milblogger) provides video footage claiming the "liberation" of Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by "Vostok" Grouping, with supporting drone footage of artillery strikes and claimed M-777 destruction. TASS provides video of Northern Fleet deployments for "West-2025" exercises, showcasing frigates, destroyers, and submarines, highlighting large-scale naval activity. NEW: "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shares video of alleged liberation of Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by RF MOD, reinforcing Colonelcassad's claim.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (Confidence: HIGH)

Conditions remained generally clear and favorable for air operations, including missile and UAV strikes across most of Ukraine. Localized heavy rainfall caused significant flooding in Kyiv. Expected thunderstorms in Kharkiv could temporarily impact local air operations. Storm weather is reported in Donetsk. RF tactical aviation is actively launching KABs on Sumy, Donetsk, and northern Kharkiv Oblasts. A ballistic missile threat from the northeast has been reported and subsequently lifted for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reconnaissance UAVs are active over the Black Sea towards Odesa and in Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts. RF drones are confirmed active across central, western, and northern Ukraine. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is under missile threat, with drone attacks confirmed on Synelnykove. A nationwide air raid alert was active due to the launch of an RF MiG-31K, a carrier of the "Kinzhal" aeroballistic missile, which was subsequently lifted. Fields and dry grass caught fire on the outskirts of Yenakiieve, potentially impacting visibility. Over 201 hectares of Kharkiv Oblast territory demined in a week. Krasnodar airport has reopened for civilian flights for the first time since the start of the war, indicating an improving logistical environment in southern RF. A Mi-8 helicopter made a hard landing in Kaliningrad due to bad weather. Poland has closed its border with Belarus, with military personnel deploying barricades and concertina wire. Air defense forces are active against UAVs over the southwestern part of Leningrad Oblast, and Pulkovo airport has implemented a "Carpet" plan (airspace closure). Enemy UAVs are detected in eastern Sumy Oblast, moving west. Additional UAVs heading towards Moscow have been destroyed. Pulkovo airport has warned of possible schedule adjustments. Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation are reported in Sumy Oblast. Enemy strike UAVs are detected in the Kakhovka region (Kherson Oblast), moving towards Mykolaiv Oblast. Over 20 UAVs have been destroyed over Leningrad Oblast, with debris fall recorded in Tosno. Enemy drones are approaching Kharkiv from the east. Air defense is active in Kyiv Oblast. Restrictions have been imposed in the airports of Ivanovo, Pskov, Yaroslavl, and St. Petersburg overnight. Enemy UAVs are detected in the northeastern part of Sumy Oblast. An explosion has been heard in Sumy, followed by several more explosions amidst drone activity. A ballistic missile threat from Kursk Oblast has been issued and subsequently lifted. The fire on a vessel in Primorsk port has been extinguished. "West-2025" joint exercises of Belarusian and Russian armed forces have started on training grounds in both countries and in the Baltic and Barents Seas. TASS reports "Pobeda" airline is adjusting flight schedules due to temporary restrictions at Pulkovo airport and Leningrad Oblast airspace, with some flights delayed. ASTRA reports 28 flights delayed, 13 cancelled, and 11 diverted at Pulkovo airport due to drone attacks. UAF Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by RF tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. TASS reports that flight restrictions have been lifted at the airports of Ivanovo and Yaroslavl. TASS reports that flight service for departures has resumed at Pulkovo airport. UAF Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by RF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast, indicating persistent air support for ground operations. "Север.Реалии" reports Pskov Governor has moved information about drone attacks to the state messenger Max, possibly indicating increased sensitivity or control over public information regarding deep strikes. "Новости Москвы" reports geomagetic disturbances from a new coronal hole may last up to 6 days, which could potentially impact satellite communications or other electronic systems. "🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦" issues an air raid alert and "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports KABs on Zaporizhzhia, indicating continued RF use of guided aerial bombs in the area, likely for close air support of ground operations. TASS reports earthquake in Bishkek, likely unrelated to conflict, but can serve as a distraction for RF population. TASS reports Pskov airport restrictions have been lifted, indicating a return to normalcy for this civilian air hub, previously impacted by UAF deep strikes. NEW: TASS and Новости Москвы report a record dry start to autumn in Moscow, which could impact agriculture and increase fire risk, but has no direct military significance at this time.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (Confidence: HIGH)

• RF:

  • Ground Forces: RF continues its multi-axis ground offensive, notably on the Pokrovsk axis (Chynyshyn, Muravka, Krasnoarmeysk), Novopavlivka, Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, South Slobozhansky (Vovchansk), and Kupyansk directions. The "Vostok" Grouping has liberated Sosnovka and Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, aiming to encircle UAF in Velykomykhailivka. Specific units involved include marine infantry, "Somali" battalion elements, and the RF 103rd Regiment. "Otvazhnye" units are heavily engaged near Pokrovsk. TASS reports RF forces have taken control of approximately 50% of Pereyizne, south of Siversk, DPR. RF has introduced 'Kur'er' robotic complexes and "Veterok" fiber-optic drones. "Anvar" special forces are active near the Sumy/Chernihiv border, clearing buffer zones. Rosgvardia has been armed with tank and anti-tank guns, self-propelled artillery, and MLRS, and has executed over 60,000 fire and tactical missions. The RF 238th Brigade claims to have destroyed a UAF UAV control post in Berestok. "Terminator" tank support fighting vehicles are training in a rear area. Rosgvardia has recreated tank units and significantly increased artillery firepower. Assault groups of the 20th Army are undergoing combat training. "West-AHMAT" battalion (RF MoD) and Russian Internal Affairs Ministry (OMVD) personnel, along with the RF 128th Brigade, are engaged in combat operations in the Vovchansk area, Kharkiv direction, using FPV drones. RF forces have "expelled the enemy from Katerynivka" and continue to advance in the Konstantinovka direction, near Kleban-Byk and Pleshcheyevka, and on the Borovskoe direction. Combat is confirmed in the vicinity of Konstantinovka. Airborne units are engaging enemy infantry near Chasiv Yar. RF forces are operating on the Rubtsovsk direction, conducting strikes on trenches, a command post, and a communications tower, with suggested electronic warfare activity. RF forces are actively engaging UAF attempts to regain Udachnoye, utilizing drone-guided strikes. "Молния-2" UAVs from Tula paratroopers reportedly hit a UAF temporary deployment point (PVD) in Sumy Oblast. The "Pyatnashka" International Brigade is active in reconnaissance and artillery roles. FPV drone crews of the RF 68th Motorized Rifle Division are conducting ambushes on UAF transport in Kharkiv Oblast. RF UAV operators are disrupting UAF rotations in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The RF 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (Vostok Grouping) is conducting reconnaissance operations in the South Donetsk direction. The 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment is reported to be advancing on the Sumy front, near Yunakovka, utilizing drones for reconnaissance and targeting. Colonelcassad claims RF forces have established control over Kolodyazi and are advancing on the Krasny Liman direction. TASS reports RF troops have "practically dislodged" UAF from Kirovsk on the Krasny Liman direction, indicating a potential significant territorial gain. RF airborne assault troops (DSHV) are reportedly using motorcycles in combat, as depicted in Ukrainian intelligence video. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) reports RF forces are advancing towards Konstantinovka, breaking through enemy defenses near Predtechino and Pleshcheyevka. "Воин DV" (RF milblogger) shares thermal drone footage of 35th Army Special Forces (Vostok Grouping) targeting UAF personnel with FPV drones and grenade drops in the Polohy direction. WarGonzo (RF milblogger) provides a tactical analysis of the Sumy Front, indicating sustained RF interest and potential for further advances. RF snipers are actively engaged in counter-drone operations, specifically against UAF "Baba Yaga" heavy strike drones on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. Colonelcassad shares video claiming an optical fiber FPV drone "VT-40" destroyed a storage site of 155mm M203A1 propelling charges, indicating RF capability for drone-based precision strikes on UAF artillery logistics. Рыбарь (RF milblogger) reports a "breakthrough to New Shakhovo and Myrnograd," providing a map-based analysis of RF offensive operations in the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd agglomeration area, visually confirming advances between 24 AUG and 10 SEP 25. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" and TASS report new batches of BMP-3s with enhanced protection kits and BMD-2s (after overhaul and modernization) have been delivered to RF troops, indicating sustained military production and improved armored vehicle capabilities. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" shares video of army aviation operations in Kharkiv Oblast, Iziumskyi district, near Borovska Andriyivka, with supporting caption indicating it's in the direction of the 1st Tank Army's assault units, confirming concentrated air support for ground advances. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" (RF milblogger) posts a video of military personnel deploying barricades and concertina wire on a wet asphalt road at night, captioning "Poland closed border with Belarus indefinitely", confirming RF awareness and commentary on NATO defensive measures. TASS reports Russian forces have "practically dislodged" UAF from Novomykolaivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This, if confirmed, signals further RF commitment to expanding their Dnipropetrovsk salient. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) provides tactical maps of the Novopavlovsk direction, indicating ongoing RF offensive operations or consolidation of territorial control in this sector. "Воин DV" provides video evidence of the "liberation" of Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by "Vostok" Grouping, with visuals of drone reconnaissance and artillery strikes, and claimed destruction of an M-777 howitzer. "Народная милиция ДНР" shares drone footage of the RF 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (ORB) destroying a UAF communications antenna/Starlink in a rural area, confirming continued RF counter-C2 efforts. "Z комитет + карта СВО" shares several tactical maps indicating advances in the Velykomykhailivka and Novoivanivka areas, further supporting RF claims of ongoing pressure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Novopavlivka. Liveuamap Source reports on daily clashes across a wide front, detailing settlements near Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, and Kherson where UAF repelled attacks. NEW: Colonelcassad reports FPV drone operators from "Sparta" battalion, 51st Guards Combined Arms Army, destroyed two UAF UAV control points and a communication antenna near Dimitrov, indicating active RF counter-UAV and counter-C2 operations. NEW: "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shares photo of claimed liberation of Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by RF MOD, reinforcing Colonelcassad's claim.
  • Air/Missile Forces: RF executed a UAV-centric air attack, with UAF Air Force reporting a 94% interception rate (62 of 66 UAVs) from the previous wave. UAF Air Force reports 33 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed in the latest wave (from 40 launched, 20 Shaheds, per RBC-Ukraine). Groups of enemy UAVs are entering southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast from TOT, course - north/northwest. Launches of KABs on Sumy, Northern Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts. TASS reports 5 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over Belgorod Oblast. RF Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs on eastern Kharkiv Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, and Sumy Oblast. A RF kamikaze drone "Upyr" engaged a UAF interceptor drone near Prykolotne, Kharkiv Oblast. A Ukrainian "Yozhka" drone was reportedly shot down near Lyman. Reconnaissance UAVs are reported in central Chernihiv Oblast and south of Zaporizhzhia. RF drone footage showcases identification and engagement of various enemy assets including a 'BABA-YAGA' drone. A ballistic missile threat from the north was issued. Enemy UAVs are moving towards Zaporizhzhia city from the east. RF Air Defense Forces destroyed five enemy UAVs heading towards Moscow, with a total of seven destroyed. Air defense forces are active against UAVs over the southwestern part of Leningrad Oblast, and Pulkovo airport has implemented a "Carpet" plan (airspace closure). Enemy UAVs are detected in eastern Sumy Oblast, moving west. Two more UAVs heading towards Moscow have been destroyed. Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation are reported in Sumy Oblast. Enemy strike UAVs are detected in the Kakhovka region (Kherson Oblast), moving towards Mykolaiv Oblast. Over 20 UAVs have been destroyed over Leningrad Oblast. Enemy drones are approaching Kharkiv from the east. An enemy UAV has been detected in Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorod and Bucha districts), moving west, with PVO active. Restrictions have been imposed in the airports of Ivanovo, Pskov, Yaroslavl, and St. Petersburg overnight. Enemy UAVs are detected in the northeastern part of Sumy Oblast, followed by explosions in Sumy. A ballistic missile threat from Kursk Oblast has been issued. Over 30 UAVs were repelled in three municipalities of Rostov Oblast. A massive drone attack was launched on Leningrad Oblast overnight, with a fire reported on a vessel in Primorsk port. Drone footage from an Orlan-10 variant shows identification and targeting of Ukrainian military positions/vehicles on the Zaporizhzhia front, followed by a missile launch. The Russian MoD claims to have shot down 221 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions overnight, with 9 of them over the Moscow region. UAF Air Force reports enemy UAVs on the north of Chernihiv Oblast, north of Kharkiv Oblast, and east of Sumy Oblast. Fighterbomber (RF milblogger) shares video from a helicopter with a Gatling gun flying low over water, indicating active RF tactical aviation operations, potentially in coastal or riverine areas. TASS reports RF Southern Grouping of Forces destroyed three UAF UAV control posts and a Starlink antenna on the Siversk direction, demonstrating effective counter-C2 and counter-communications capabilities. Colonelcassad and Военкор Котенок report the Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have shot down 221 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAV activity in northern Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, indicating continued ISR pressure on the northern border. UAF Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by RF tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports air strike warnings for Zaporizhzhia and KABs on Zaporizhzhia, confirming active RF aerial strike operations in this key southern sector, likely in support of ground forces. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares video of an alleged missile trail and explosion at night, and other videos of night-time fires and explosions in urban/industrial areas, reinforcing the visual evidence of deep strikes. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports new reconnaissance UAV activity on the north of Chernihiv and east of Sumy Oblasts. NEW: Kotsnews reports RF is testing a "heavy drone evading EW," suggesting new drone development for enhanced survivability against UAF EW.
  • Naval Forces: USV attack on Novorossiysk confirmed, disabling an RF Black Sea Fleet vessel (Project MPSV07). "Операция Z" (RusVesna) reports a massive enemy attack on Leningrad Oblast, with a fire on a tanker and pumping station in Primorsk, with accompanying video footage. Sever.Realii also reports drones attacked Russia's largest oil loading port in Primorsk. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) and Janus Putkonen (Finnish milblogger) share similar videos showcasing naval assets, including frigates, hovercraft, and submarines, participating in "West-2025" exercises, indicating a demonstration of naval power projection. TASS provides video of Northern Fleet deployments for "West-2025" exercises, showcasing a range of naval assets including a Slava-class cruiser, a Udaloy-class destroyer, a Kilo-class submarine, and smaller patrol vessels operating in coastal waters, suggesting ongoing readiness and operational activity in strategic maritime areas.
  • Information Warfare (IO): RF is actively pushing narratives to discredit Ukraine, sow discord among allies, leveraging various diplomatic and internal events (e.g., Zelenskyy's statements, Hungarian FM's accusations, US internal issues like the Charlie Kirk assassination). RF media denies deliberate drone incursions into Poland while milbloggers promote narratives questioning their origin. RF leverages statements on Germany's need to increase Bundeswehr strength to portray NATO as weak. RF promotes narratives on Slovakia rejecting Western troops in Ukraine. RF IO also focuses on internal morale-boosting and patriotism, such as the increased military personnel salaries and celebrating military education bodies. RF claims UAF units on the Serebryansk direction received direct orders to shoot at civilians. RF continues to use child-centric propaganda. RF continues to amplify civilian casualties in Belgorod and Bryansk Oblasts, blaming UAF for "barbaric crimes." TASS continues to circulate images and narratives about the Charlie Kirk assassination, suggesting UAF/Western involvement, for psychological influence. "Два майора" promote a religious procession in St. Petersburg, a domestic morale-boosting and patriotism-enhancing event. TASS attributes UAF "looting" in Krasny Liman to a preparation for withdrawal, a clear RF IO attempt to demoralize UAF and signal RF battlefield dominance. "Военкор Котенок" (RF milblogger) pushes a narrative of UAF repressing citizens who report "correct behavior" by RF soldiers in Kyiv Oblast, aiming to delegitimize Ukrainian authorities and promote a false image of RF forces. "Два майора" claim the house damaged in Poland by an alleged drone was previously damaged by a storm, attempting to discredit UAF actions and Polish/NATO claims. "Два майора" celebrate the birthday of Ella Pamfilova, Chair of RF Central Election Commission, reinforcing stability narratives. ТАСС amplifies a New York Times article arguing that Trump's reaction to the drone incident in Poland shows US detachment from European defense, further pushing narratives of Western disunity. Операция Z (RusVesna) circulates highly inflammatory and graphic content, alleging a "deadly clash with TCC" (Ukrainian Territorial Recruitment Centers) where a priest with a pistol attempted to decapitate military commissars with an axe, a clear attempt to demonize Ukrainian authorities and sow discord. ФСБ (Russian Federal Security Service) reports the detention in Klimovsk, Moscow region, of a Russian citizen who allegedly financed UAF and planned to join combat on the enemy side, an internal security measure likely leveraged for propaganda. Басурин о главном (RF milblogger) promotes a propaganda image about the "Admiral Kuznetsov" aircraft carrier making billions for Russia, a clear attempt at domestic morale-boosting and projecting naval strength despite the vessel's operational challenges. TASS promotes a "Moscow helps to vote" center on Pokrovka, which is likely part of internal election-related IO to encourage participation and project normalcy/stability. TASS reports a 14-year-old son of a Russian officer participating in the SVO was added to the Ukrainian "Myrotvorets" extremist website, which RF will use to demonstrate alleged Ukrainian extremism and target Russian military families for propaganda purposes. TASS reports a resident of Crimea was sentenced to 17 years for preparing a terrorist attack, which RF will leverage for internal security messaging and demonization of Ukrainian supporters. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) uses videos of Russian schoolchildren handling firearms and "FAKE" overlays to discredit Ukrainian claims about militarization of Russian youth, while simultaneously promoting patriotic education, demonstrating complex IO. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" projects the Special Military Operation (SVO) will conclude in 2027 with the capture of Odesa and Mykolaiv, a long-term strategic IO goal. "Воин DV" (RF milblogger) reports on upcoming US-South Korea nuclear exercises, which RF will use to frame NATO/US as aggressive. "Alex Parker Returns" shares another image of the Charlie Kirk assassination, reiterating the RF IO narrative. "Kotsnews" discusses a video regarding a boy on "Mirotvorets", claiming the original video was "fake" to discredit Ukrainian media/IO, demonstrating continued RF efforts to control narratives around youth militarization and alleged Ukrainian extremism. "Alex Parker Returns" shares a post regarding the sentencing of former Brazilian president Bolsonaro, leveraging it to highlight US pressure and push Brazil towards BRICS, furthering a narrative of anti-Western alliances. ASTRA reports 90 polling stations across Russia are named in honor of participants in the war with Ukraine, a clear RF IO effort to normalize and glorify the conflict within civilian life and promote military patriotism during elections. TASS publishes an interview with Rodion Miroshnik claiming Ukraine attacked border regions to disrupt Russia-US summit in Alaska, a clear IO attempt to blame UAF for cross-border strikes and frame UAF as disruptive to diplomacy. TASS claims Tatiana Kurtukova, singer of "Matushka," was added to Ukrainian "Myrotvorets" extremist website, another RF IO play to demonstrate alleged Ukrainian extremism and target cultural figures. "Басурин о главном" disseminates RT information on the mother of defector pilot Kuzminov, suggesting an ongoing RF effort to discredit defectors and their families. "Старше Эдды" shares a video and caption claiming a video of a boy on "Myrotvorets" was "fake," continuing RF efforts to control narratives around youth militarization and alleged Ukrainian extremism. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares a video and caption about Alla Pugacheva giving an interview to a "foreign agent," an IO attempt to discredit dissenting cultural figures. "Полиция Хабаровского края" shares a video celebrating a Russian TV program focused on law enforcement, projecting internal stability and competence. "Colonelcassad" claims former Pentagon aide Stephen Bryen stated fallen drones in Poland were under Ukrainian control, amplifying a narrative to shift blame. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) shares a graphic claim that the father of a Ukrainian killed in the US was not allowed to leave Ukraine due to conscription age, another RF IO effort to demonize Ukrainian authorities and create sympathy for draft evaders. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" shares images and video commemorating a deceased project leader, aimed at internal morale and heroism narratives. "Z комитет + карта СВО" shares tactical maps of Velykomykhailivka and Novoivanivka to promote RF advances. "Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration" shares video of President Zelenskyy speaking at the Fifth Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen, emphasizing education and international solidarity, a UAF counter-IO effort. NEW: "Два майора" accuse Ukraine of issuing "another fake" and circulating it in social networks, specifically referencing a video about children learning to handle firearms, reinforcing RF's efforts to counter Ukrainian information. NEW: TASS quotes Rodion Miroshnik claiming the West supplies Ukraine with "inoperable Patriot air defenses," a clear IO attempt to discredit Western aid and boost RF confidence. NEW: "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" amplifies former Pentagon aide Stephen Bryen's claim that fallen drones in Poland were under Ukrainian control, further shifting blame away from RF. NEW: "Два майора" post a memorial for a project leader of "Archangel Spetsnaz," another internal morale-boosting and heroism narrative.
  • Diplomatic/Economic: Japan has imposed sanctions on 14 individuals and 48 companies/organizations from RF, 3 companies from Seychelles and Marshall Islands, and export restrictions against 2 RF companies and 9 companies from UAE, Turkey, and China. Japan has lowered the price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $47.6 per barrel. Japan has excluded Karina Rotenberg from its sanctions list. Japan's MFA states Sakhalin-2 oil is exempt from price cap for energy security reasons. TASS reports the Russian General Prosecutor's Office intends to seize assets worth 79 billion rubles belonging to relatives of former Vladivostok mayor Igor Pushkarev (convicted of corruption, now serving in the SVO), highlighting domestic anti-corruption efforts or asset consolidation. "Два майора" reports an increased bribery charge against a former Deputy Shoigu, signaling internal anti-corruption or political maneuvering within the RF Ministry of Defense. TASS reports 11% increase in average cost of Chinese car service in Russia (to 9.4k rubles), indicating potential economic shifts. Basurin o Glavnom highlights political chaos in the US and the House of Representatives voting to repeal old AUMFs from 1991/9/11/2003, indicating RF interest in US internal political divisions. TASS reports the EU will present a new package of sanctions against Russia on Monday, according to the French MFA. TASS reports Britain has expanded its sanctions list against Russia by 30 positions and introduced restrictions on companies from China, India, Turkey, and Thailand, indicating widening international pressure. TASS reports Britain has introduced sanctions against several Russian defense sector companies including "Anozit," "Proton," "Sinvent," and "Ikar," further impacting RF's military-industrial complex. TASS reports "New People" party proposed introducing "phygital activities" in school physical education lessons, demonstrating ongoing domestic policy discussions. TASS reports on potential new models allowed for taxi work, indicating domestic economic management. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports Great Britain and Japan have introduced new sanctions against Russia, and the EU will present new sanctions on September 15, confirming continued international economic and diplomatic pressure. Germany intends to seek stricter visa restrictions on Russians as part of a new EU sanctions package, signaling further diplomatic isolation. STERNENKO reports UK sanctions against 70 vessels of RF's "shadow fleet" and 30 companies/individuals supplying electronics, chemicals, explosives for missile production, including Chinese firms, indicating a targeted approach to disrupt RF's military-industrial complex and its supply chains. NEW: "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the USA will pressure G7 countries to impose high tariffs on Indian and Chinese purchases of Russian oil (FT source), indicating potential future economic pressure on RF's key oil markets.

• UAF:

  • Ground Forces: UAF repelled 130 RF attacks across all major axes in the last 24 hours. UAF drone operators are demonstrating tactical effectiveness against RF infantry, vehicles, and logistics. UAF 'Lazar' unit successfully destroyed a bridge near Nova Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, Russia. Ukrainian special forces destroyed an RF BMD-3 in the Zaporizhzhia direction. UAF 'UA_reg' special forces conducted successful strikes against enemy artillery and personnel in Kursk Oblast. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provides video showcasing significant delivery of logistics vehicles (trucks, vans, pickups) to the front. UAF General Staff provides a tactical map analysis of failed enemy advances. The 46th Separate Airmobile Podilsky Brigade of the UAF DSHV shares photos celebrating a soldier who "burned 16 tanks and returned every time after being wounded," aiming to boost internal morale and highlight valor. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares graphic video of a UAF soldier receiving immediate medical aid for a close-quarters bullet wound to the face, underscoring the intensity of combat and the importance of field medicine. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares video of humanitarian aid (including body bags) being delivered to soldiers, highlighting the harsh realities of the front line and the continued need for support. UAF 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" shares video of new advanced UAVs being deployed, indicating a focus on enhancing drone capabilities. Сили оборони Півдня України (Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine) claims to continue striking enemy deployment points, firing positions, and rear areas, with supporting photo/video. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" (UAF milblogger) claims Ukrainian Defense Forces (СОУ) have "cleared and liberated" the villages of Shakhove and Volodymyrivka on the Dobropillya direction, a tactical success if verified. RBC-Ukraine reports the National Guard unit "Rubizh" is collecting funds for the restoration of destroyed property and equipment, indicating localized resource shortfalls. "Два майора" (RF milblogger) posts a video appeal for Mavic drones for assault units on the Sumy direction, implying these drones are crucial for UAF reconnaissance and protection, and are a capability they seek to counter or obtain. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports SBU detained a Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate) priest who was allegedly adjusting RF strikes on Sumy Oblast for military intelligence, indicating successful UAF counter-intelligence operations. Liveuamap Source reports on daily clashes across South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv), Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, and Kherson directions, with UAF repelling numerous attacks, underscoring the widespread nature of combat and successful UAF defense. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims UAF has moved military aircraft to airfields in Poland and Romania, which, if true, indicates a strategic withdrawal or dispersal of air assets to avoid destruction and preserve combat capability. NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports raid actions by "Morok" assault battalion, 225th Separate Assault Regiment, in the rear of the RF 810th Brigade, with remote mining by "Pentagon" pilots successfully stopping an RF interception attempt. This highlights successful UAF small unit tactics and drone support. NEW: STERNENKO reports +280 FPV drones purchased in the last day through public donations, indicating strong public support for UAF drone procurement. NEW: RBC-Україна supports fundraising for vehicles for the 153rd Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBR), indicating ongoing UAF logistical needs and public support.
  • Air/Missile Forces: UAF Air Defenses achieved a 94% interception rate (62 of 66 UAVs) against a significant RF air attack in the previous wave. HUR MOD specialists shot down 20 enemy drones. Shahed drone debris was found in Odesa. UAF kamikaze drones cleared an RF roadblock. A ballistic missile threat from the north was lifted. Air raid alerts for Zaporizhzhia and Odesa Oblasts were lifted, indicating successful air defense. UAF drone attacks are reported to have caused explosions and fires at an oil depot in Smolensk Oblast and Primorsk port in Leningrad Oblast. Ukrainian channels "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" share multiple videos and text suggesting successful UAF drone attacks causing fires and explosions in Smolensk and Leningrad Oblasts, including a LUKOIL facility and Primorsk. UAF Air Force reports 33 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed in the latest wave (from 40 launched). STERNENKO reports over 400 air targets intercepted by "Shahedoriz" project, indicating ongoing counter-UAV efforts. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" issues an air strike warning for Zaporizhzhia. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares video of an alleged UAV strike on a Transneft oil pumping station "Vtorovo" in Vladimir Oblast, Russia, indicating a significant expansion of UAF deep strike range and target type if verified. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares multiple videos depicting night-time explosions and missile trails, including an alleged UAV strike on Primorsk Port and a significant explosion in an urban/industrial area, reinforcing UAF deep strike claims. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" reports new reconnaissance UAV activity on the north of Chernihiv and east of Sumy Oblasts, indicating persistent RF ISR that UAF must monitor. Germany calls on partners to supply long-range weapons for strikes on Russia, signaling continued international support for UAF offensive capabilities.
  • Naval Forces: Ukrainian HUR units successfully struck and disabled an RF Black Sea Fleet vessel (Project MPSV07) near Novorossiysk.
  • Information Warfare/Diplomacy: UAF continues to demonstrate asymmetric warfare capabilities through resistance movements like "ATESH." Poland has committed to cooperating with Ukraine on anti-drone systems. Sweden has provided its 20th package of military aid ($836M) and committed $4.276B annually for 2026-2027. Rheinmetall will deploy shell production in a safe region of Ukraine. President Zelenskyy met with US Special Representative General Keith Kellogg, as well as Danish, Finnish, and Estonian officials, confirming continued high-level support. UAF is actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to enhance international cooperation and air defense capabilities, including sharing expertise on countering Shaheds and training Polish military personnel on drone interception. UAF recognizes EW personnel day. UAF General Staff provides regular operational information and RF combat losses. UAF General Staff reports a productive conversation with the Polish Chief of General Staff, General Wiesław Kukuła, likely concerning drone incursions and border security. "STERNENKO" (UAF milblogger) notes UAF has "again failed to meet the norm for cutting Russians," possibly indicating a slowdown in RF personnel losses or a high internal expectation for combat effectiveness, or a sardonic comment. RBC-Ukraine reports the British Foreign Minister is in Kyiv to announce a winter aid package of $190 million, demonstrating continued international support. RBC-Ukraine reports Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski arrived in Kyiv, indicating ongoing high-level diplomatic engagement amidst the border crisis. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA), and the Office of the Prosecutor General all share "Minute of Silence" tributes, reinforcing national unity and remembrance. STERNENKO and Оперативний ЗСУ report the arrival of British Prince Harry in Kyiv, a high-profile visit boosting international attention and potentially morale. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a bipartisan group of US senators insists on naming Russia a state sponsor of terrorism, indicating continued pressure on RF from the US. Офіс Генерального прокурора (Office of the Prosecutor General) reports six employees of a correctional facility in Poltava Oblast will be tried for torturing an inmate, highlighting Ukrainian efforts to address internal legal accountability. RBC-Ukraine reports Sikorski reacted to Trump's statement about drones in Poland, stating "This was not a mistake," reinforcing the Polish stance and countering Trump's narrative. Zelenskyy's official channel and KMVA share videos of the "Fifth Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen" with international guests from Austria, Denmark, Estonia, Lithuania, Finland, Serbia, Germany, emphasizing international support and diplomatic engagement on education and humanitarian themes. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the first train departed Uzhhorod on a newly built European gauge track to Budapest and Vienna, signifying efforts to improve westward transportation infrastructure and European integration, with potential dual-use benefits for logistics. Оперативний ЗСУ criticizes Trump as an "empty talker" not respected by enemies or allies, reflecting UAF dissatisfaction with his statements. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski stated "The invasion of 19 Russian UAVs into Poland was not a mistake," directly countering Trump's narrative and reinforcing a strong stance from a key NATO ally. "Alex Parker Returns" shares a photo message about Prince Harry's arrival in Ukraine by train from Warsaw, with a caption implying surprise or significance ("Вот это поворот!"). RBC-Ukraine also publishes video of Prince Harry arriving in Kyiv by train. This indicates a high-profile visit that boosts morale and international attention. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports Great Britain and Japan have introduced new sanctions against Russia, and the EU will present new sanctions on September 15, confirming continued international economic and diplomatic pressure. "Офіс Генерального прокурора" reports the detention of a woman in Kyiv selling cars imported as humanitarian aid for UAF, demonstrating UAF efforts to combat corruption and maintain integrity of aid. "Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація" shares a video of President Zelenskyy speaking at the Fifth Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen, emphasizing education and international solidarity, which is a UAF IO effort to showcase international support. NEW: "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares images and videos of a UAF vehicle ("Techik") undergoing repair, indicating maintenance and sustainment efforts.
  • Casualties: One civilian killed in Polohy Raion due to enemy attacks. The death of a 15-year-old boy in Kharkiv due to RF shelling. The 68-year-old man severely injured in a drone strike on Prymorske yesterday has died in hospital. UAF General Staff reports RF combat losses over the last 24 hours include 890 personnel. One security guard killed under the rubble in Sumy. RBC-Ukraine reports fatalities and destruction in residential areas of Sumy Oblast due to RF missile strikes. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares graphic video of a UAF soldier receiving immediate medical aid for a close-quarters bullet wound to the face, highlighting the direct human cost of intense combat. RBC-Ukraine reports 2 people killed and 5 houses destroyed in a village in Sumy Oblast due to RF strike. RBC-Ukraine reports at least 5 injured in a village in Sumy Oblast due to RF strike. ASTRA reports three people killed after a Russian attack in Sumy Oblast, as confirmed by local authorities. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF milblogger) reports two people killed and five injured in the village of Bytytsia, Sumy Oblast, as a result of a missile strike. STERNENKO (UAF milblogger) and Sumy Oblast Military Administration (OVA) confirm one person killed in Sumy due to RF drone strike this morning. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares graphic video footage depicting multiple deceased and dismembered individuals after an alleged artillery strike in a rural area. TASS reports 1 killed, 6 wounded in Kherson Oblast due to UAF shelling, which RF will use for IO. ASTRA reports the woman killed in Belgorod this morning died from the impact of a "Pantsir" air defense missile booster, confirming RF air defense malfunction/collateral damage. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports that Andriy Kuzmin, a resident of Tambov Oblast and father of 12, was eliminated near Byle in Kursk Oblast after signing a contract with the RF MoD, highlighting individual RF combat losses.

1.4. Intelligence Gaps (Confidence: HIGH)

• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the UAF drone strikes on the oil depot in Smolensk Oblast and Primorsk port in Leningrad Oblast? What specific types of facilities were hit (e.g., storage tanks, pumping stations, vessels), what is the estimated damage, and what is the operational impact on RF military/energy logistics? (Previous Critical for Smolensk, New for Primorsk Oil Depot) ASTRA reports no damage or casualties in Smolensk according to Governor Anokhin. This directly contradicts previous UAF claims and requires immediate verification.
• CRITICAL: What is the specific composition, strength, and immediate objectives of the RF 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment operating in the Sumy direction, particularly near Yunakovka? What is the current UAF force posture and defensive readiness in this sector? What specific village in Sumy Oblast was hit by the latest RF strike causing fatalities and destruction, and what is the confirmed BDA? ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS specifies Bytytsia as the village, requiring verification of BDA and confirmation of casualties.
• CRITICAL: What is the specific BDA of the alleged "liberation" of Sosnovka and Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by the RF "Vostok" Grouping/Russian Army? What UAF units were defending it, and what is the current UAF posture in Velykomykhailivka, which RF claims to be encircling? What is the verifiable BDA for the RF claim of "practically dislodging" UAF from Novomykolaivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast? What UAF units were involved, and what are the immediate RF intentions for exploitation? NEW: What are the precise details and verified advances depicted in the "Z комитет + карта СВО" maps for Velykomykhailivka and Novoivanivka? NEW: What are the specific changes reflected in the DeepState map update?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific BDA of the alleged RF strikes on the Lviv Armored Plant, Lviv Aviation Plant, and other DIB facilities in western Ukraine?
• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA and specific details of the alleged defection of a Russian soldier to the UAF after killing two officers and destroying his position, as reported by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС? What unit was he from, and what actionable intelligence has he provided?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific impact and BDA of the new RF mechanized offensive on the Kostiantynivka direction, as reported by STERNENKO? What RF units are involved, and what UAF forces are counter-attacking? What specific details are available regarding the RF breakthrough near Predtechino and Pleshcheyevka?
• CRITICAL: What is the verifiable BDA and source for the claim of 80% destruction of UAF assault groups near Andriyivka, Sumy Oblast (TASS)? What UAF units were involved, and what is the overall impact on UAF offensive capabilities in the Sumy region?
• CRITICAL: What is the current status of RF "motorcycle assaults"? Are these isolated incidents or a new, broader tactical adaptation? What are the specific vulnerabilities of these tactics to UAF counter-engagement?
• CRITICAL: What is the confirmed BDA of the alleged RF "practical dislodgement" of UAF from Kirovsk on the Krasny Liman direction? What UAF units were involved, and what are the immediate RF intentions for further exploitation?
• CRITICAL: What is the confirmed BDA of the RF claim regarding the destruction of a storage site for 155mm M203A1 propelling charges by a "VT-40" fiber-optic FPV drone? What UAF unit was affected, and what is the operational impact on UAF artillery sustainment?
• CRITICAL: What is the verifiable BDA and source for the claim by "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" that UAF has "cleared and liberated" the villages of Shakhove and Volodymyrivka on the Dobropillya direction? What RF units were defending these villages, and what are the immediate UAF intentions for further exploitation or consolidation?
• CRITICAL: What are the specific details of the SBU operation regarding the UOC-MP priest accused of adjusting RF strikes in Sumy Oblast? What intelligence was gathered, and how does this impact RF intelligence gathering networks?
• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA and context of the graphic video of multiple deceased and dismembered individuals shared by "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС"? What was the cause of casualties, and in what specific location did this occur?
• CRITICAL: What is the full scope and specific objectives of the "West-2025" exercises? What RF and Belarusian units are participating, what new capabilities are being tested, and what are the implications for potential future offensive operations against Ukraine or NATO? (Previously Critical, Reconfirmed)
• CRITICAL: What specific RF air defense system or air-to-air asset was responsible for the downing of the UAF Su-27 in the Zaporizhzhia direction, and what is the operational impact on UAF air superiority in this sector? (Previously Critical, Reconfirmed)
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA and operational impact of the alleged UAV strike on the Transneft oil pumping station "Vtorovo" in Vladimir Oblast, Russia? What specific assets were targeted, and what is the estimated repair time and economic impact?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA of the RF 68th ORB's claimed destruction of a UAF communications antenna/Starlink? What unit was affected and what is the impact on UAF C2?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable status of the claimed UAF relocation of military aircraft to airfields in Poland and Romania? What types and numbers of aircraft are involved, and what are the implications for UAF air operations and NATO-Ukraine cooperation?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA of the RF "Sparta" battalion's claimed destruction of two UAF UAV control points and a communication antenna near Dimitrov? What UAF units and C2 were affected?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What are the specific details of the RF Southern Grouping of Forces destroying three UAF UAV control posts and a Starlink antenna on the Siversk direction? What units were affected, and what is the impact on UAF C2?
• HIGH: What is the exact damage assessment and long-term operational impact of the HUR strike on the RF Black Sea Fleet Project MPSV07 vessel near Novorossiysk? How long will repairs take, and how does this affect RF maritime operations in the Black Sea?
• HIGH: What is the specific BDA and the full impact of the RF assault groups using the "Potok" ("Kursk pipe") method for infiltration on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction? What are the defensive countermeasures required for such subterranean/culvert-based movements?
• HIGH: What are NATO's specific military Rules of Engagement (ROE) and force posture changes following the Article 4 consultation regarding future RF incursions? What are RF's strategic red lines for a direct NATO military response?
• HIGH: What is the strength, composition, and immediate objective of RF second-echelon forces positioned to exploit the Pokrovsk breakthrough?
• HIGH: What is the specific military significance of the restrictions imposed at the airports of Ivanovo, Pskov, Yaroslavl, and St. Petersburg overnight? Are these linked to UAF deep strikes or internal RF security incidents, and what assets/operations are affected? TASS reports restrictions lifted for Ivanovo, Yaroslavl, and Pskov, reducing this gap's scope.
• HIGH: What is the specific target and BDA of the allegedly destroyed ammunition depot in occupied Luhansk, and what UAF assets were responsible for this strike?
• HIGH: What is the exact status and operational implications of RF control over Kolodyazi on the Krasny Liman direction? What UAF units were defending, and what are the immediate RF intentions following this alleged capture?
• HIGH: What is the specific military significance of the traffic jam reported towards Khartsyzk, including the presence of military-style trucks? Does this indicate a RF logistical movement, increased security, or a response to an incident?
• HIGH: What is the confirmed success rate and methodology of RF snipers against UAF "Baba Yaga" drones? What counter-measures are effective against this new RF tactical adaptation?
• HIGH: What is the verified BDA for the purported "Rubizh" brigade funding drive for destroyed property/equipment? Does this indicate systemic logistical issues or localized combat losses?
• HIGH: What is the full impact and the intent behind RF FSB detaining a Russian citizen in Klimovsk for allegedly financing UAF and planning to join combat? Is this an isolated incident or part of a broader internal security crackdown?
• HIGH: What is the specific impact of the observed geomagetic disturbances on military C2, ISR, or navigation systems for both UAF and RF forces?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA and context of the RF FAB guided aerial bomb strikes on UAF positions in Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast?
• HIGH (NEW): What specific capabilities are being tested in RF's "heavy drone evading EW"? What is its current stage of development and potential deployment timeline?
• MEDIUM: What are the specific capabilities and tactical applications of the newly delivered BMP-3s with enhanced protection and modernized BMD-2s? Where are these being deployed, and what is their immediate impact on RF ground combat effectiveness?
• MEDIUM: What is the full scope and impact of the RF army aviation operations in Kharkiv Oblast, Iziumskyi district, particularly near Borovska Andriyivka? What specific targets were engaged, and what UAF units were affected?
• MEDIUM: What is the current status and capacity of the newly built European gauge rail line from Uzhhorod to Budapest/Vienna for potential military/dual-use logistics?
• MEDIUM: What specific details are discernable from the "Novopavlovsk direction" tactical map screenshots shared by "Операция Z" and "Z комитет + карта СВО"? What do the symbols and territorial markings indicate about RF objectives and control in this sector?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the full context and impact of the detention of a woman in Kyiv for selling cars imported as humanitarian aid for UAF? How widespread is this issue, and what measures are being taken to prevent it?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the specific location and BDA of the UAF drone strike on a civilian vehicle in Shevchenkivska community, Kharkiv Oblast?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the specific tactical context of the raid actions by UAF's "Morok" assault battalion and the remote mining by "Pentagon" pilots in the rear of the RF 810th Brigade? What RF units were involved in the attempted interception?

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (Confidence: HIGH)

• Capabilities:

  • Sustained Ground Offensive with Massed Forces & Expanded Scope: RF demonstrates the capability for sustained, multi-axis ground offensives, achieving localized breakthroughs (Pokrovsk, Siversk, Lyman, Konstantinovka, Kirovsk, Novomykolaivka, Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye), urban combat, and deploying new robotic systems ('Kur'er'). Confirmed capability for new advances and "liberation" in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye, Novomykolaivka), a significant expansion of operational scope, with objectives to encircle UAF forces in Velykomykhailivka. Rosgvardia has been armed with tank/anti-tank guns, SPGs, and MLRS, enhancing RF's ground combat capability. RF has specialized armored units ("Terminator") and a T-90M Proryv tank capability against UAF UAV command posts. RF is proficient in FPV drone operations for close-quarters combat and strikes on urban positions (e.g., Polohy direction) and against UAF artillery logistics (e.g., 155mm charge destruction). RF units can conduct integrated ISR and direct engagement on multiple fronts (e.g., South Donetsk). RF is capable of managing combat casualties and maintaining medical support. RF is also employing non-standard vehicles (buggies, ATVs, motorcycles) for tactical purposes. RF airborne units can conduct offensive actions. RF demonstrates enhanced homeland air defense capabilities against mass drone attacks, claiming 221 UAVs shot down overnight, and effectively downing 33 UAVs in the latest wave. RF demonstrates capability to conduct large-scale, multi-domain military training through the "West-2025" exercises, including naval power projection. RF demonstrates capability for effective counter-drone operations using snipers against heavy strike UAVs ("Baba Yaga"). RF's Southern Grouping of Forces can destroy UAF UAV control posts and Starlink antennas, impacting UAF C2. RF demonstrates sustained military industrial production and modernization capabilities, delivering new BMP-3s and modernized BMD-2s to troops. RF army aviation provides direct air support for ground advances (e.g., Iziumskyi district, Zaporizhzhia). The RF 68th ORB demonstrates capability for precise counter-C2 strikes against UAF communications (Starlink). NEW: RF "Sparta" battalion demonstrates capability for precision FPV drone strikes to destroy UAF UAV control points and communication antennas. NEW: RF is reportedly testing a "heavy drone evading EW," indicating an advanced counter-EW capability in development.
  • Ballistic Missile Strike Capability (North and Kursk Oblast): RF has the capability to conduct long-range precision strikes from the north and from Kursk Oblast, including against residential areas.
  • Drone Swarm Capability (Zaporizhzhia): RF maintains the capability to conduct persistent drone attacks, potentially in coordinated swarms, against key urban centers.
  • Adaptive FPV Drone Operations: RF is increasingly employing FPV drones for specialized tactical roles, demonstrating effective targeting against high-value assets and personnel, including against UAF transport concealed in forest belts and in combat zones (Polohy direction) and against artillery ammunition stores, and against UAF UAV control posts and communications.
  • Persistent IO and Cyber Operations (Highly Adaptive): RF maintains a robust capability for multi-layered information warfare, including rapid adaptation to new narratives, highly inflammatory accusations (e.g., TCC priest incident), and efforts to sow discord. RF is capable of immediate and coordinated IO, generating and disseminating narratives of Western weakness (e.g., Trump's comments), exploiting US internal events, and attempting to discredit Western media. RF conducts internal IO to reinforce domestic support and justify the conflict, including youth indoctrination and promoting nationalistic religious events. RF is capable of proactively shaping battlefield narratives (e.g., "looting" in Krasny Liman, "correct behavior" by RF troops, discrediting NATO drone claims, denying damage in Smolensk, blaming UAF for Myrotvorets listing of children). RF also demonstrates the capability for internal security operations against alleged pro-Ukrainian individuals, leveraged for propaganda. RF is capable of projecting long-term strategic goals (e.g., capture of Odesa and Mykolaiv by 2027). RF is also actively using events in third-party countries (e.g., Brazil) to promote narratives of anti-Western sentiment and the rise of BRICS. RF is capable of integrating its IO into domestic political activities, such as naming polling stations after war participants. RF is capable of generating narratives to deflect blame for civilian casualties from its own air defenses (e.g., Belgorod Pantsir incident). NEW: RF IO capability includes discrediting Western aid (e.g., "inoperable Patriot" claim), shifting blame for drone incursions (e.g., Bryen's claims), and rapidly creating counter-narratives to Ukrainian deep strikes or IO efforts (e.g., "fake" videos of children with firearms).
  • Overwhelming Long-Range Strike & Air Presence (Escalated Volume): RF maintains overwhelming long-range strike capability (Iskander-K, Shaheds, KABs, cruise missiles), capable of massed, multi-platform, and precision strikes against critical DIB, energy, and national C2 infrastructure, as well as residential areas. RF army aviation provides close air support, including FAB guided aerial bombs.
  • Homeland Air Defense: RF demonstrates capability to defend its capital and critical infrastructure against aerial threats. RF has successfully repelled over 30 UAVs in Rostov Oblast and destroyed over 30 UAVs in Leningrad Oblast, demonstrating robust air defense against mass deep strikes. RF is also capable of rapid response and damage mitigation at critical naval infrastructure, as demonstrated at Primorsk port. RF claims a high number of UAVs downed (221 overnight). RF is capable of quickly restoring civilian air traffic after drone incidents (e.g., Pskov).
  • Naval Power Projection: Demonstrated capability to conduct naval exercises with multi-branch assets, including submarines and strategic bombers, in the Baltic and Barents Seas as part of "West-2025." The Northern Fleet's deployment for "West-2025" confirms capability for large-scale, multi-domain naval exercises, including surface and subsurface assets.

• Intentions:

  • Achieve Decisive Breakthrough on Pokrovsk Axis and Expand Dnipropetrovsk/Lyman/Sumy/Novopavlovsk Offensive: RF's primary intent is to exploit current breakthroughs to gain significant operational depth on the Pokrovsk axis and to consolidate and expand the new salient at Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye, and Novomykolaivka, threatening Velykomykhailivka. RF intends to maintain pressure on urban areas (e.g., Vovchansk, Chasiv Yar) and degrade UAF artillery. RF also intends to initiate or expand offensive actions on the Sumy direction (Yunakovka) and continue advances on the Krasny Liman direction, including the claimed capture of Kolodyazi and Kirovsk. RF intends to break through UAF defenses near Predtechino and Pleshcheyevka to further advance on Konstantinovka. The reported advances on Pokrovsk-Myrnograd and Novopavlovsk direction further confirm this intent, including around Velykomykhailivka and Novoivanivka. RF intends to sustain these operations until strategic objectives, such as the capture of Odesa and Mykolaiv, are met (projected 2027). RF also intends to continue targeting UAF UAV C2 and communications.
  • Degrade Ukrainian Winter Resilience & Overwhelm Air Defenses: RF intends to continue systematic mass strikes against Ukrainian DIB, energy, industrial, and logistical infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's ability to sustain operations through winter and to saturate/overwhelm UAF air defenses. This includes persistent ballistic missile and drone pressure, targeting residential areas to induce fear and erode morale. RF will also employ FAB guided aerial bombs against UAF rear areas.
  • Undermine Western Support and Ukrainian Morale: RF will continue aggressive information operations to discredit UAF, sow distrust, amplify internal challenges, and exploit any perceived cracks in Western unity (e.g., Trump's comments on Poland, US internal events). This includes leveraging diplomatic incidents and internal US political events, as well as blaming UAF for civilian casualties in border regions (Bryansk, Belgorod) and promoting narratives of UAF military misconduct (e.g., TCC priest incident, SBU arrest of UOC-MP priest) and impending UAF withdrawals. RF will also attempt to deny successful UAF deep strikes (e.g., Smolensk) to maintain its narrative of invulnerability, and leverage claims about UAF listing children on "Myrotvorets." RF will also use IO to shift blame for collateral damage from its own air defenses (e.g., Belgorod Pantsir incident). RF intends to use domestic events, such as elections and naming polling stations after war participants, to normalize the conflict and boost patriotic sentiment. RF will also use claims of UAF targeting border regions to disrupt international diplomacy (Russia-US summit). RF intends to discredit defectors (Kuzminov) and dissenting cultural figures (Pugacheva). RF will also continue to amplify narratives of Ukrainian extremism (Myrotvorets listing of Kurtukova). NEW: RF intends to discredit Western military aid by claiming it is inoperable, and to continue shifting blame for drone incursions to Ukraine.
  • Sustained Probing of NATO Air Defenses with Hybrid Warfare Elements: RF intends to continue launching UAVs into or towards NATO member states' airspace to test response thresholds and sow discord, escalating hybrid actions based on perceived successes. This is further reinforced by the "West-2025" exercises and the demonstration of naval power projection. The deployment of the Northern Fleet for "West-2025" indicates an intent to project power and test NATO's maritime responses.
  • Maintain Internal Stability and Project Strength: RF will continue internal propaganda to maintain domestic stability, projecting military strength, accountability, and normalcy. This includes promoting military successes and leveraging major exercises for internal morale, while downplaying the impact of UAF deep strikes (e.g., Smolensk denial). This also includes using legal actions against corrupt officials to project accountability and promoting domestic political events. The FSB action against the alleged UAF financier reinforces this intent. Promoting electoral processes (e.g., Moscow voting centers, polling stations named after war participants) is part of this. Celebrating law enforcement efforts (Habarovskiy Kray Police) is part of projecting stability. RF will also use IO to counter narratives about youth militarization.
  • Leverage Diplomatic Openings: RF intends to exploit any perceived cracks in Western unity or new diplomatic initiatives to improve its international standing or secure concessions, including by leveraging sanctions relief and economic relations. RF will closely monitor new EU and British sanctions, and new sanctions against its defense sector, while attempting to mitigate their impact. RF will also seek to counter German efforts to implement stricter visa restrictions. NEW: RF intends to counter US pressure on G7 countries regarding tariffs on Russian oil.

• Courses of Action (COA):

  • MLCOA 1 (Ground Offensive Reinforcement & Consolidation - Pokrovsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Lyman, Sumy, Konstantinovka, Novopavlovsk): RF will continue to reinforce offensive efforts on the Pokrovsk axis, actively consolidate/expand the new salient in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye, Novomykolaivka), aiming for the encirclement of Velykomykhailivka, and continue advances towards Novoivanivka. RF will exploit control of Kolodyazi and Kirovsk and continue advances on the Krasny Liman direction, with a focus on Predtechino and Pleshcheyevka to enable further advance on Konstantinovka. Secondary efforts will target Lyman, Konstantinovka, Vovchansk, and initiate/expand operations on the Sumy direction (Yunakovka), supported by army aviation. RF will integrate newly delivered armored vehicles into these ground operations and continue offensive operations in the Novopavlovsk direction. RF will also use FAB guided aerial bombs on UAF rear areas (e.g., Druzhkivka). RF FPV drone units will continue to target UAF UAV control points and communications. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • MLCOA 2 (Sustained Air/Missile Campaign Targeting Critical Infrastructure & Probing Homeland Defense): RF will launch multi-wave UAV attacks (30-60 drones) and guided aerial bomb (KAB) strikes targeting Ukrainian DIB, energy, and logistics, with continued ballistic missile threats from the north and Kursk Oblast, including against residential areas (e.g., Sumy Oblast, Zaporizhzhia). RF will also use FAB guided aerial bombs on UAF rear areas (e.g., Druzhkivka). Simultaneously, RF will maintain and enhance its homeland air defense capabilities against UAF deep strikes, while attributing civilian casualties to UAF (e.g., Belgorod, Bryansk) and deflecting blame for collateral damage from its own systems (Belgorod Pantsir incident). RF will continue to prioritize counter-UAV C2 and communications targets (Starlink) and UAF artillery logistics (e.g., charge storage). (Confidence: HIGH)
  • MLCOA 3 (Escalated Hybrid Operations/IO with Border Provocations): RF will continue to probe NATO airspace with UAVs, while simultaneously engaging in a robust IO campaign to deny responsibility (e.g., Poland drone damage pre-existing, Smolensk no damage), blame Ukraine (including for civilian casualties in Russia like the Bryansk minibus incident), and amplify perceived NATO disunity (e.g., Trump's comments). RF will leverage the "West-2025" exercises for a show of force and internal propaganda, potentially including border provocations involving Belarusian forces and showcasing naval power projection in the Baltic/Barents Seas via Northern Fleet deployments. RF will also intensify efforts to demonize Ukrainian authorities and undermine internal cohesion (e.g., TCC priest narrative, SBU priest arrest, Myrotvorets listing of children, Myrotvorets listing of Kurtukova, Kuzminov's mother, father of murdered Ukrainian not allowed to leave) to control the narrative and demonize Ukrainian authorities. RF will also use internal security operations (e.g., FSB Klimovsk) for propaganda and promote internal electoral processes (naming polling stations after war participants). RF will continue to leverage international events (e.g., Brazil) and blame UAF for disrupting diplomacy (Russia-US summit). RF will also actively work to discredit Western military aid and counter Ukrainian IO efforts, including claims of "fake" videos. (Confidence: HIGH)

2.2. Recent tactical changes or adaptations (Confidence: HIGH)

• Expanded Offensive Zones and Tactics: RF is demonstrating an expanded scope of ground operations, with new claims of advances in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye, Novomykolaivka) and the reported capture of Kolodyazi and Kirovsk on the Krasny Liman direction, a significant shift from traditional axes. This indicates an adaptation to probe new areas or divert UAF resources. New offensive directions are observed on the Rubtsovsk axis and now explicitly on the Sumy front (Yunakovka). The use of motorcycle assaults by DSHV, if widespread, represents a tactical adaptation for rapid, light-infantry movement in certain terrains or for shock assault. The reported breakthrough near Predtechino and Pleshcheyevka indicates an adaptation to overcome fortified UAF positions on the Konstantinovka axis. Sustained advances in the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd agglomeration are confirmed. Army aviation is now observed providing direct support for assault units on specific axes (e.g., Iziumskyi district, Zaporizhzhia). RF milbloggers' long-term projections (Odesa/Mykolaiv by 2027) indicate a sustained, adaptive strategic intent. Tactical map activity in the Novopavlovsk direction (including Novoivanivka) further indicates adaptive shifts in operational focus. RF is also using FAB guided aerial bombs in rear areas (Druzhkivka).
• Enhanced Tactical Air Defense and Counter-UAV: RF is adapting its short-range air defense to protect offensive axes and is improving counter-UAV capabilities through modernized systems and drone-on-drone combat. RF is also using armored vehicles for counter-UAV C2 strikes. RF homeland air defense is demonstrating reactive and intensified responses to deep strikes (e.g., Moscow, Leningrad, Rostov), resulting in significant flight disruptions. The latest UAF Air Force report of 33 downed UAVs indicates an ongoing, persistent, and successful RF drone strategy, even with lower numbers than previous mass strikes. RF snipers are being employed as an effective counter-UAV measure against heavy strike drones. RF is also actively targeting UAF UAV C2 and communications infrastructure (Starlink), and demonstrating drone-based precision strikes against UAF artillery ammunition stores. RF claims of 221 UAVs downed overnight, if accurate, indicate a significant adaptation and improvement in overall air defense posture. The Pskov Governor moving drone attack information to a state messenger indicates an adaptive approach to information control and public response. The Pskov airport lifting restrictions indicates an adaptive response to normalize civilian operations after deep strikes. RF IO is also adapting to shift blame for collateral damage from its own air defenses (e.g., Belgorod Pantsir incident). NEW: RF's "Sparta" battalion is demonstrating adaptive FPV drone tactics to destroy UAF UAV C2 and communication infrastructure. NEW: The reported testing of a "heavy drone evading EW" by RF indicates an adaptive strategy to counter UAF EW capabilities and improve drone survivability.
• Expanded Role for Internal Security Forces: Rosgvardia has been armed with tank/anti-tank guns, SPGs, and MLRS, and has executed over 60,000 fire missions, integrating these internal security forces into direct combat operations. The FSB detention of an alleged UAF financier demonstrates an adaptation of internal security efforts to counter perceived domestic support for Ukraine and leverage for propaganda.
• Persistent Urban Combat Focus: RF continues to adapt to protracted, high-intensity urban warfare in areas like Pokrovsk and Vovchansk, employing specialized units and FPV drones.
• Increased Depth of Hybrid Operations into NATO: The deliberate, large-scale drone incursions into Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania demonstrate an adaptation in RF's hybrid warfare, testing NATO's response thresholds with greater audacity. This has led to reactive airspace and border closures by NATO members. RF milbloggers are adapting their narrative to counter Polish/NATO claims (e.g., pre-existing damage). The "West-2025" exercises further demonstrate a large-scale, multi-domain adaptation for strategic projection, including Northern Fleet deployments.
• Youth Military Indoctrination and Religious Mobilization: RF is integrating military training and patriotic education at a young age to prepare a future cadre of soldiers. The promotion of religious processions with nationalistic overtones (e.g., Alexander Nevsky in St. Petersburg) indicates an adaptation to leverage religious sentiment for morale and political consolidation. The use of children handling firearms in propaganda videos demonstrates a further adaptation of youth indoctrination efforts. RF is also adapting its IO to counter Ukrainian narratives about this (e.g., "fake" video claims). RF is also integrating war commemoration into civilian life by naming polling stations after war participants.
• Intensified Blame-Shifting for Civilian Casualties and Denial of Damage: RF has adapted its IO to rapidly attribute civilian casualties in its border regions (Belgorod, Bryansk) to UAF "terrorist attacks," seeking to justify further aggression and rally internal support, even using passenger vehicles as targets for this narrative (e.g., Bryansk minibus). RF is also actively discrediting Polish/NATO claims of drone damage by attributing it to prior natural events, and attempting to outright deny damage from UAF deep strikes (e.g., Smolensk). RF IO is also adapting to shift blame for collateral damage from its own air defenses (e.g., Belgorod Pantsir incident).
• Adapted Deep Strike Response: RF demonstrates a significantly adapted defensive response to UAF deep strikes, reporting a high number of downed UAVs (221 overnight) and rapid damage control at critical infrastructure (Primorsk port), but still experiencing significant disruption to civilian operations (Pulkovo airport), though some airport restrictions are now being lifted.
• Large-Scale Combined Arms Training: RF demonstrates a significant tactical adaptation for large-scale combined arms training through the "West-2025" exercises, indicating a focus on enhancing operational readiness and potentially showcasing new doctrine, including naval component with Northern Fleet deployments.
• IO Pre-emptive Narrative Control and Demonization: RF IO has adapted to proactively frame UAF actions, such as alleging UAF "looting" in Krasny Liman in preparation for withdrawal, and employing highly inflammatory narratives to demonize Ukrainian authorities (e.g., TCC priest incident, SBU priest arrest, Myrotvorets listing of children, Myrotvorets listing of Kurtukova, Kuzminov's mother, father of murdered Ukrainian not allowed to leave) to control the narrative and demonize Ukrainian authorities. RF is also leveraging international media narratives to sow discord within NATO (e.g., Trump's comments on Poland) and is promoting internal electoral processes (Moscow voting centers, polling stations named after war participants) for stability. RF is also actively using non-Ukrainian international political events to push its anti-Western narrative (e.g., Bolsonaro sentencing). RF is actively using narratives to discredit defectors (Kuzminov) and dissenting cultural figures (Pugacheva). RF is also adapting its IO to blame UAF for disrupting international diplomacy (Russia-US summit). NEW: RF IO is adapting to discredit Western military aid as "inoperable" and to blame UAF for drone incursions into NATO territory.
• Military Production and Modernization: RF is actively modernizing its armored vehicle fleet, with new deliveries of BMP-3s and modernized BMD-2s, indicating a continued focus on improving ground combat capabilities.

2.3. Logistics and sustainment status (Confidence: MEDIUM)

RF continues to demonstrate the ability to sustain multi-axis ground offensives and massed air attacks, suggesting sufficient, albeit strained, logistical capacity. The new Dnipropetrovsk salient (Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye, Novomykolaivka), advances on Krasny Liman/Kirovsk, Novopavlovsk (including Novoivanivka) and potential Sumy offensive will place additional demands. The call for drone donations from "Два майора" indicates a potential shortfall in organic drone supply for some units. High consumption of artillery ammunition by Rosgvardia requires robust logistical support. UAF's successful destruction of a bridge near Nova Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, represents a localized logistical disruption for RF. The re-opening of Krasnodar airport may improve civilian logistics, with indirect implications for military flow. Civilian/volunteer support for specific RF ground units (e.g., 135th Assault Battalion) indicates reliance on non-state supply chains. The Russian Central Bank raising the dollar exchange rate above ₽85 could indicate growing economic strain, impacting long-term sustainment. RF claims over half of UAF-supplied drones are defective, an IO narrative that also highlights the critical nature of drone logistics.

• The UAF drone attack on the oil depot in Smolensk Oblast and Primorsk port in Leningrad Oblast represents a potentially significant disruption to RF energy and naval logistics, especially if damage is extensive and prolonged. The specific mention of a LUKOIL facility implies targeting of a major energy company. However, the Smolensk Governor's claim of no damage directly contradicts this, creating an intelligence gap and requiring further verification. The alleged strike on the Transneft oil pumping station in Vladimir Oblast, if verified, would represent a significant logistical disruption in a deeper RF region.
• Over 30 flights cancelled/delayed at Pulkovo Airport indicate continued disruption to civilian air travel in Northwestern Russia, suggesting broader logistical impact due to security concerns and potential resource diversion for air defense. The resumption of flights at Pulkovo (departures) and full lifting of restrictions at Ivanovo, Yaroslavl, and Pskov indicates a partial restoration of civilian logistical flow, but the impact of previous disruptions remains.
• The "West-2025" exercises will place significant logistical demands on both RF and Belarusian forces, potentially straining existing supply chains for fuel, ammunition, and other consumables. Northern Fleet deployments further add to this logistical burden.
• The Russian General Prosecutor's attempt to seize 79 billion rubles in assets from a former mayor's family could indicate efforts to consolidate state resources or address corruption, which might indirectly impact economic stability and long-term sustainment. The increased bribery charge against a former Deputy Shoigu could also be part of efforts to address internal corruption or consolidate power, with potential indirect impacts on logistical efficiency and trust within the military-industrial complex.
• The reported traffic jam towards Khartsyzk involving a military-style truck suggests local logistical disruption, potentially due to an accident, increased security, or mass movement that could strain road networks.
• TASS reports increased cost for Chinese auto service in Russia which, while civilian, may indicate broader economic and supply chain pressures affecting RF's ability to maintain equipment.
• New EU and British sanctions, including specific sanctions against RF defense sector companies, will further strain RF's ability to procure critical components, particularly for high-tech military applications, and will affect companies from China, India, Turkey, and Thailand, potentially impacting RF's grey market supply chains. The UK's targeted sanctions against RF's "shadow fleet" and suppliers of electronics/chemicals for missile production will directly impact RF's ability to sustain its long-range strike capabilities. German efforts for stricter visa restrictions may impact RF's access to Western markets indirectly. NEW: US pressure on G7 to impose tariffs on Indian and Chinese oil purchases could significantly impact RF's oil revenues and thus its long-term sustainment.
• The RF drone strike on a UAF 155mm charge storage site, if verified, directly impacts UAF artillery sustainment and logistics.
• The "Rubizh" brigade's fundraising for destroyed equipment indicates localized UAF logistical shortfalls or combat losses.
• The delivery of new BMP-3s and modernized BMD-2s indicates that despite sanctions, RF's military-industrial complex retains the capacity to produce and upgrade armored vehicles, contributing to sustained ground force capabilities.
• NEW: "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" sharing videos of a UAF vehicle ("Techik") undergoing repair indicates ongoing maintenance and sustainment efforts, and the need for spare parts. RBC-Україна's fundraising for vehicles for the 153rd OMBR further highlights ongoing UAF logistical needs.

2.4. Command and control effectiveness (Confidence: HIGH)

RF Command and Control (C2) demonstrates high effectiveness in coordinating multi-domain operations. This includes multi-domain synchronization of air attacks, ground offensives (including new axes), and hybrid operations. RF C2 shows adaptive targeting capabilities, rapidly prioritizing high-value targets (e.g., UAF UAV command posts, critical infrastructure, residential areas, Starlink antennas, UAF artillery ammunition stores). Ground C2 is effective for offensive, defensive, and counter-offensive actions (e.g., Rubtsovsk, Udachnoye, Yunakovka, Krasny Liman, Kirovsk, Predtechino/Pleshcheyevka, Pokrovsk-Myrnograd, Borovska Andriyivka, Novomykolaivka, Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye, Novoivanivka). Tactical C2 is effective in directing drone assets for reconnaissance and precision strikes, including against camouflaged UAF transport and personnel in combat zones (Polohy direction). Information Warfare (IO) is highly integrated into strategic and operational C2, allowing for rapid exploitation of events for propaganda and disinformation, including pre-emptive narrative control and the demonization of Ukrainian authorities. RF C2 is effective in managing internal political processes and using them for IO, including leveraging religious events and electoral events (naming polling stations after war participants). Emerging drone C2 capabilities are evident with special UAV detachments and control centers. RF also demonstrates decentralized tactical initiative under overall strategic guidance.

• Robust homeland air defense C2 is evident in the successful repulsion of mass drone attacks over Rostov and Leningrad Oblasts, indicating effective coordination of detection, tracking, and interception, despite significant civilian flight disruptions. The claims of 221 UAVs downed overnight, if accurate, would reflect highly effective C2. RF C2 also demonstrates the ability to quickly restore civilian air traffic after drone incidents (e.g., Pskov).
• Rapid response naval/industrial C2 was demonstrated in extinguishing the fire at Primorsk port, indicating effective emergency response protocols.
• RF C2 is effective in planning, coordinating, and executing complex military maneuvers across multiple domains and geographical areas, as seen in the "West-2025" exercises, including Northern Fleet deployments.
• The internal investigation and increased charges against a former Deputy Shoigu suggest ongoing C2 oversight and accountability mechanisms, albeit with potential political undertones.
• Effective C2 is demonstrated by the reported destruction of multiple UAF UAV control posts and a Starlink antenna by RF Southern Grouping artillery, and the RF 68th ORB's destruction of a UAF communications antenna/Starlink. NEW: RF "Sparta" battalion's destruction of two UAF UAV control points and a communication antenna further reinforces effective RF counter-C2.
• The FSB operation in Klimovsk demonstrates RF C2 over internal security and counter-intelligence operations and the SBU operation in Sumy regarding the UOC-MP priest indicates an effective UAF counter-intelligence C2.
• The Pskov Governor moving information to a state messenger indicates centralized control over information dissemination, reflecting effective C2 in managing crisis communication.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian force posture and readiness (Confidence: HIGH)

UAF maintains a resilient defensive posture, successfully repelling 130 RF attacks across all major axes in the last 24 hours. UAF drone operators are demonstrating tactical effectiveness against RF personnel, vehicles, and logistics, with verified success in targeting RF ground forces (e.g., BMD-3) and infrastructure (e.g., bridge destruction). Ukrainian air defenses achieved a 94% interception rate (62 of 66 UAVs) against a significant RF air attack in the previous wave, and shot down/suppressed 33 of 40 UAVs in the latest wave, demonstrating continued effectiveness. UAF continues to demonstrate asymmetric warfare capabilities through resistance movements like "ATESH" and successful deep strikes on RF territory and naval assets (e.g., Project MPSV07 vessel, Smolensk oil depot, Luhansk ammunition depot, Primorsk port vessel and pumping station, Transneft oil pumping station in Vladimir Oblast). UAF is actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to enhance international cooperation and air defense capabilities, including sharing expertise on countering Shaheds and training Polish military personnel on drone interception. UAF is committed to internal transparency and anti-corruption efforts (e.g., Poltava prison torture trial, detention of woman selling humanitarian aid cars). Morale is boosted by public solidarity, recognition of valor (e.g., "Man in the Military" award, the DSHV celebration of a soldier who "burned 16 tanks"), and official support for POW families. Rheinmetall's planned shell production in Ukraine significantly enhances long-term readiness. High-level US, Danish, Finnish, Estonian, British (Foreign Minister), and Polish (Foreign Minister) diplomatic engagement confirms strong international support. The arrival of British Prince Harry further raises international awareness and support. UAF is also focused on protecting civilian life through initiatives like underground schools in Vilnyansk. UAF General Staff reports 890 RF combat losses over the last 24 hours. UAF is preparing for continued intense defensive operations on multiple fronts, as evidenced by the delivery of logistical vehicles to the Zaporizhzhia front. The graphic video of a UAF soldier receiving field medical aid highlights the resilience of UAF personnel and the importance of combat medicine. UAF 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" demonstrates proactive development and deployment of advanced UAVs, signaling enhanced tactical capabilities. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" (UAF milblogger) claims Ukrainian Defense Forces (СОУ) have "cleared and liberated" the villages of Shakhove and Volodymyrivka on the Dobropillya direction, demonstrating local offensive success. The "Rubizh" brigade's fundraising indicates active recovery efforts and sustained combat operations despite potential equipment losses. The successful SBU detention of a UOC-MP priest for alleged strike adjustment indicates effective UAF counter-intelligence and security readiness. The opening of a new European gauge rail line from Uzhhorod to Budapest/Vienna improves Ukraine's westward transportation and logistical connectivity, enhancing long-term readiness. UAF Air Force reports continued reconnaissance UAV activity by RF in northern Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, indicating UAF maintains vigilance and intelligence gathering capability in these areas. "Оперативний ЗСУ" highlights Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski's strong stance against RF drone incursions into Poland, showcasing strong diplomatic readiness and alignment with NATO allies. The high-profile visit of Prince Harry further boosts UAF's international standing and public morale. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims UAF has moved military aircraft to airfields in Poland and Romania, which, if true, indicates a strategic decision to preserve air assets and maintain combat readiness through dispersal, potentially enhancing long-term readiness and survivability. Germany's call for long-range weapons for strikes on Russia indicates continued efforts to enhance UAF offensive capabilities. Liveuamap Source reports on UAF repelling numerous attacks across multiple axes, confirming continued UAF defensive effectiveness. NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports successful raid actions by "Morok" assault battalion, 225th Separate Assault Regiment, with drone support, highlighting UAF small unit tactical effectiveness and readiness. NEW: STERNENKO reports significant public fundraising for FPV drones (+280 drones in one day), demonstrating strong public support and UAF's ability to crowdsource critical equipment. NEW: RBC-Україна's fundraising efforts for vehicles for the 153rd OMBR further emphasize sustained public support for UAF logistical needs. NEW: "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares images and videos of a UAF vehicle undergoing repair, indicating ongoing maintenance and sustainment efforts, crucial for readiness.

3.2. Recent tactical successes or setbacks (Confidence: HIGH)

• Successes:

  • High interception rate (94% previously, 33 of 40 in the latest wave) against RF UAV attack.
  • Successful repulsion of 130 RF attacks across multiple axes.
  • Effective drone operations by UAF units against RF personnel and equipment, particularly significant with 890 RF personnel eliminated in 24 hours.
  • Successful HUR strike on an RF Black Sea Fleet Project MPSV07 vessel, disabling a key support asset.
  • Successful destruction of a bridge near Nova Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, disrupting RF logistics.
  • Successful deep strikes into RF territory: explosions and fires at an oil depot in Smolensk Oblast and Primorsk port/pumping station in Leningrad Oblast; Luhansk ammunition depot; and numerous UAV incursions in Leningrad Oblast, Rostov Oblast, and Moscow region. Verified UAF videos from "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" confirming fires and explosions in Smolensk and Leningrad Oblasts, including a LUKOIL facility. NEW: Alleged UAV strike on Transneft oil pumping station "Vtorovo" in Vladimir Oblast, if verified, represents a significant success, expanding UAF deep strike range and target type. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shares multiple videos depicting night-time explosions and missile trails, reinforcing UAF deep strike claims. NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports an "explosive morning" in Leningrad Oblast with videos, further reinforcing successful UAF deep strike claims.
  • US Congress approved $400 million in military aid, and Sweden committed $836M (20th package) and $4.276B annually for 2026-2027. British Foreign Minister in Kyiv announces $190 million winter aid package. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports Great Britain and Japan have introduced new sanctions against Russia, and the EU will present new sanctions on September 15, confirming continued international economic and diplomatic pressure. Germany calls on partners to supply long-range weapons for strikes on Russia. NEW: "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports US will pressure G7 to impose tariffs on Indian and Chinese purchases of Russian oil, indicating potential future economic pressure on RF.
  • Effective counter-offensive drone operations against RF mechanized advances in Kostiantynivka direction.
  • UAF special forces destroyed an RF BMD-3 in the Zaporizhzhia direction and conducted successful strikes against RF artillery/personnel in Kursk Oblast.
  • Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania closed border airspace, and Poland closed all border crossings with Belarus, demonstrating a coordinated NATO response to RF hybrid operations.
  • Deployment of Rafale and Eurofighter jets by Britain and France to NATO's eastern flank.
  • UAF recognition of EW personnel day highlights commitment to critical capabilities.
  • UAF General Staff reports a productive conversation with Polish Chief of General Staff, strengthening coordination amidst border crisis. Polish Foreign Minister arrived in Kyiv, signaling continued high-level diplomatic support.
  • Significant delivery of transport vehicles to the Zaporizhzhia front enhances UAF logistics and mobility.
  • UAF DSHV channels boosting morale by highlighting valorous individual soldiers.
  • Arrival of British Prince Harry in Kyiv boosts international attention and morale.
  • UAF 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" showcases new advanced UAVs.
  • STERNENKO reports over 400 air targets intercepted by "Shahedoriz" project. NEW: STERNENKO reports significant public fundraising for FPV drones (+280 in one day).
  • "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" (UAF milblogger) claims Ukrainian Defense Forces (СОУ) have "cleared and liberated" the villages of Shakhove and Volodymyrivka on the Dobropillya direction, a tactical success if verified.
  • The Office of the Prosecutor General reporting a trial for prison staff for torture demonstrates commitment to internal legal accountability and transparency. "Офіс Генерального прокурора" reports the detention of a woman in Kyiv selling cars imported as humanitarian aid for UAF, demonstrating UAF efforts to combat corruption.
  • The bipartisan US Senate push to name Russia a state sponsor of terrorism indicates continued strong political support in the US.
  • RBC-Ukraine reports Sikorski's strong reaction to Trump's statement ("This was not a mistake") strengthens the pro-Ukrainian narrative and diplomatic alignment.
  • Zelenskyy's hosting of the "Fifth Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen" with various European dignitaries demonstrates continued high-level diplomatic engagement and international support for Ukraine's humanitarian and educational initiatives.
  • The SBU detention of the UOC-MP priest accused of adjusting RF strikes in Sumy Oblast represents a successful counter-intelligence operation, degrading RF's intelligence network.
  • The opening of a new European gauge rail line from Uzhhorod to Budapest and Vienna represents a significant logistical and economic success, improving Ukraine's connectivity with Europe.
  • Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski reiterating that the drone incursions into Poland were "not a mistake" is a clear diplomatic success, maintaining a strong, unified front against RF's hybrid actions and countering divisive narratives. Prince Harry's visit is a significant diplomatic and public relations success, drawing positive international attention and boosting morale.
  • UAF Air Force reports continued reconnaissance UAV activity by RF in northern Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, indicating UAF maintains vigilance and intelligence gathering capability in these areas.
  • NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports successful raid actions by "Morok" assault battalion, 225th Separate Assault Regiment, using remote mining by "Pentagon" pilots to prevent RF interception, indicating successful tactical innovation and drone support.
  • NEW: "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares images and videos of a UAF vehicle undergoing repair, indicating successful maintenance efforts to sustain equipment.

• Setbacks:

  • RF exploitation of the Pokrovsk breakthrough, leading to urban combat within Pokrovsk city limits.
  • Continued significant damage to DIB, energy, and civilian infrastructure from RF deep strikes (e.g., Sumy, Kramatorsk, Trypilska TPP). One security guard killed under rubble in Sumy. Fatalities and destruction in residential areas of Sumy Oblast due to RF missile strikes (2 killed, 5 houses destroyed in one village, 3 killed overall per ASTRA, 2 killed, 5 injured in Bytytsia per ЦАПЛІЄНКО). At least 5 injured in a village in Sumy Oblast. "🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)" reporting "tragedy" in Nikopol region due to enemy terror, implying ongoing civilian impact.
  • Civilian casualties from RF attacks remain high (Yarova, Polohy Raion, Prymorske, Sumy security guard, Sumy residential areas). TASS reports 1 killed, 6 wounded in Kherson Oblast due to UAF shelling, which RF will use for IO. NEW: Oleg Sinegubov reports RF drone attack on a civilian vehicle in Shevchenkivska community, Kharkiv Oblast.
  • RF's "liberation" of Sosnovka and Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, represents a significant territorial setback for UAF and a new threat of encirclement to Velykomykhailivka. TASS reporting RF "practically dislodged" UAF from Novomykolaivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast represents a further territorial setback, expanding RF's Dnipropetrovsk salient. "Z комитет + карта СВО" tactical maps indicate RF advances around Velykomykhailivka and Novoivanivka, further reinforcing this territorial pressure.
  • The loss of UAF Major Oleksandr Borovyk and a Su-27 aircraft in Zaporizhzhia direction is a critical operational setback, impacting air defense and offensive air capabilities.
  • Localized territorial loss with RF claims of controlling 50% of Pereyizne (Siversk direction). RF claims control over Kolodyazi and "practically dislodged" UAF from Kirovsk on the Krasny Liman direction, representing further territorial losses. Confirmed sustained RF advances in Pokrovsk-Myrnograd area by Рыбарь. "Операция Z" tactical maps suggesting advances in the Novopavlovsk direction imply additional territorial pressure.
  • Persistent diplomatic friction with Hungary and Slovakia due to political statements, indicating challenges in maintaining international unity.
  • RF claims of destroying a UAF UAV control point and communication antenna (Starlink) in Siversk direction, if verified, represents a setback for UAF drone operations and C2. "Народная милиция ДНР" shares drone footage of RF 68th ORB destroying a UAF communications antenna/Starlink. NEW: Colonelcassad reports RF "Sparta" battalion destroying two UAF UAV control points and a communication antenna near Dimitrov.
  • RF FPV drone ambushes are successfully targeting UAF transport in Kharkiv Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast. Thermal drone footage from RF's 35th Army targeting UAF personnel with FPV drones on the Polohy direction demonstrates continued RF FPV effectiveness.
  • RF UAV operators are disrupting UAF rotations in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • RF claims of destroying ~30% of UAF vehicles in DPR rear areas represents a potential significant logistical setback (requires verification).
  • RF claims of up to 80% destruction of UAF assault groups near Andriyivka, Sumy Oblast, if accurate, represents a severe tactical setback in personnel and offensive capacity (requires verification).
  • RF 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment reportedly advancing on Sumy front, indicating new pressure on a previously stable sector.
  • Civilian casualties in Belgorod and Bryansk Oblasts, attributed to UAF by RF, present an IO challenge and potential for escalation. Bryansk Governor reports 5 injured, including 2 "Bars-Bryansk" fighters, from UAF strikes on a passenger minibus, a severe IO challenge. Poddubny and Belgorod Mayor confirm a woman killed in Belgorod. ASTRA reports the woman killed in Belgorod this morning died from the impact of a "Pantsir" air defense missile booster, confirming RF air defense malfunction/collateral damage. This presents a new IO challenge for RF.
  • RF snipers successfully targeting UAF "Baba Yaga" drones indicates an effective counter-UAV tactic.
  • RF claim of destruction of a UAF 155mm charge storage site by a VT-40 FPV drone, if verified, represents a setback for UAF artillery logistics.
  • RF MOD claims of 221 Ukrainian UAVs shot down overnight, if accurate, indicate significant losses for UAF deep strike capabilities.
  • ASTRA reports Smolensk Governor Anokhin claims no damage or casualties from UAF drone attacks in Smolensk, which, if accurate, would negate a previous UAF success claim.
  • The "Rubizh" brigade fundraising for destroyed equipment implies recent combat losses that require replacement.
  • The graphic video of multiple deceased and dismembered individuals shared by "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" highlights the extreme human cost and severity of combat, which can impact morale.
  • UAF dissatisfaction with Trump's statements ("empty talker") reflects a setback in perceived unwavering US political unity.
  • Continued RF reconnaissance UAV activity in northern Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts indicates persistent threat and UAF resource expenditure on defense in these border regions.
  • NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the elimination of Andriy Kuzmin, an RF contract soldier, near Byle, Kursk Oblast, representing a human cost from RF's perspective, but an operational success for UAF if he was eliminated by UAF forces during a cross-border raid.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

• Propaganda and disinformation campaigns:

  • RF Narratives (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF continues to push aggressive, multi-layered propaganda. Key narratives include: portraying UAF as targeting civilian infrastructure (e.g., ZNPP training center, Sumy non-residential building, Polohy Raion, Belgorod/Bryansk civilian casualties, Western Ukraine missile incident), specifically leveraging the Bryansk minibus attack and the latest Belgorod casualties to blame UAF for attacking civilians and "Bars-Bryansk" fighters; blaming Ukraine for attacks on RF territory (e.g., Belgorod, Bryansk, and now Leningrad Oblast, Rostov Oblast, Smolensk, Vladimir Oblast) while claiming successful homeland air defense (e.g., 221 UAVs downed) and even denying damage (Smolensk); denying responsibility for NATO airspace violations (e.g., Polish drone incident) while amplifying Trump's "could be a mistake" statement, and now claiming the damage was pre-existing; framing NATO's response as escalatory (e.g., Poland's troop deployment, Rafale/Eurofighter deployment); dismissing Western support as ineffective; exploiting internal Western political issues (e.g., US internal divisions, Charlie Kirk murder, alleged LGBT/Antifa links to the weapon, using images from the Charlie Kirk investigation to tie to broader anti-Western narratives, US Congress repealing AUMFs, Bolsonaro's sentencing in Brazil to highlight US pressure and push for BRICS); and sowing discord (e.g., between Poland/Ukraine, critical of NATO's response). RF milbloggers are key amplifiers, mocking NATO's "slow" response to drone incursions and amplifying perceived Western disunity (e.g., Slovak FM statements). Lavrov's statement blaming the US for arming Ukraine is a core RF narrative. RF is leveraging the "West-2025" exercises to project military strength and unity, including naval power (Northern Fleet deployments). RF is conducting internal IO to boost morale (e.g., increased military salaries, celebrating educational work bodies, using children in propaganda, promoting nationalistic religious events like the Alexander Nevsky procession in St. Petersburg, celebrating Ella Pamfilova, propaganda for "Admiral Kuznetsov," promoting Moscow voting centers, naming 90 polling stations after war participants). RF denies the existence or location of successful UAF deep strikes (e.g., initially for Smolensk/Primorsk, now explicitly Smolensk). RF claims UAF units on the Serebryansk direction received direct orders to shoot at civilians. RF seeks to control historical narratives (e.g., Mannerheim). RF frames Japan's sanctions as aggressive economic warfare. RF also claims UAF is using "unprepared recruits" for assault groups (e.g., Poltava's "Skala" regiment), attempting to portray UAF as desperate and ineffective. RF claims control of Kolodyazi and Kirovsk to project battlefield success. TASS attributes UAF "looting" in Krasny Liman to a preparation for withdrawal, a clear RF IO attempt to demoralize UAF and signal RF battlefield dominance. "Военкор Котенок" (RF milblogger) pushes a narrative of UAF repressing citizens who report "correct behavior" by RF soldiers in Kyiv Oblast, aiming to delegitimize Ukrainian authorities and promote a false image of RF forces. RF claims to be effectively countering "Baba Yaga" drones with snipers. Операция Z circulates highly inflammatory and graphic content to demonize Ukrainian authorities (TCC priest incident, and now the SBU arrest of the UOC-MP priest in Sumy). The FSB detention of an alleged UAF financier will be used to portray RF as actively countering internal threats. TASS reports a 14-year-old son of a Russian officer participating in the SVO was added to the Ukrainian "Myrotvorets" extremist website, which RF will use to demonstrate alleged Ukrainian extremism and target Russian military families for propaganda purposes. TASS reports a resident of Crimea was sentenced to 17 years for preparing a terrorist attack, which RF will leverage for internal security messaging and demonization of Ukrainian supporters. "Операция Z" (RusVesna) uses videos of Russian schoolchildren handling firearms and "FAKE" overlays to discredit Ukrainian claims about militarization of Russian youth, while simultaneously promoting patriotic education, demonstrating complex IO. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" projects the Special Military Operation (SVO) will conclude in 2027 with the capture of Odesa and Mykolaiv, a long-term strategic IO goal. "Воин DV" (RF milblogger) reports on upcoming US-South Korea nuclear exercises, which RF will use to frame NATO/US as aggressive. "Alex Parker Returns" shares another image of the Charlie Kirk assassination, reiterating the RF IO narrative. "Kotsnews" discusses a video regarding a boy on "Mirotvorets", claiming the original video was "fake" to discredit Ukrainian media/IO, demonstrating continued RF efforts to control narratives around youth militarization and alleged Ukrainian extremism. "Alex Parker Returns" shares a post regarding the sentencing of former Brazilian president Bolsonaro, leveraging it to highlight US pressure and push Brazil towards BRICS, furthering a narrative of anti-Western alliances. TASS publishes an interview with Rodion Miroshnik claiming Ukraine attacked border regions to disrupt Russia-US summit in Alaska, a clear IO attempt to blame UAF for cross-border strikes and frame UAF as disruptive to diplomacy. TASS claims Tatiana Kurtukova, singer of "Matushka," was added to Ukrainian "Myrotvorets" extremist website, another RF IO play to demonstrate alleged Ukrainian extremism and target cultural figures. "Басурин о главном" disseminates RT information on the mother of defector pilot Kuzminov, suggesting an ongoing RF effort to discredit defectors and their families. "Старше Эдды" shares a video and caption claiming a video of a boy on "Myrotvorets" was "fake," continuing RF efforts to control narratives around youth militarization and alleged Ukrainian extremism. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares a video and caption about Alla Pugacheva giving an interview to a "foreign agent," an IO attempt to discredit dissenting cultural figures. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" amplifies former Pentagon aide Stephen Bryen's claim that fallen drones in Poland were under Ukrainian control, further shifting blame away from RF. NEW: TASS quotes Rodion Miroroshnik claiming Western countries supply Ukraine with "inoperable Patriot air defense systems," attempting to discredit Western aid. NEW: Janus Putkonen (Finnish milblogger) asserts that the Polish government and media staged the "Russian drone attack," amplifying RF disinformation and conspiracy theories. NEW: "Два майора" posts a memorial for a project leader of "Archangel Spetsnaz," a morale-boosting narrative for internal consumption. NEW: RF utilizes weather (Moscow dryness) for neutral reporting, maintaining an appearance of normalcy.
  • UAF Counter-Narratives (HIGH CONFIDENCE): UAF and allied media are countering RF narratives by: highlighting successful UAF operations (e.g., HUR naval strike, bridge destruction, drone interceptions, 890 RF personnel losses, deep strikes on RF territory, successful targeting of RF armored vehicles and logistics, confirming RF "motorcycle assaults", showcasing new advanced UAVs, "Shahedoriz" project success, claiming liberation of Shakhove/Volodymyrivka, SBU arrest of UOC-MP priest, new rail line, alleged Transneft strike, alleged aircraft relocation to NATO airfields); emphasizing continued international support (e.g., US aid, Swedish aid, Rheinmetall production, high-level diplomatic meetings, productive talks with Polish Gen Staff, British/Polish FM visits, Prince Harry's visit, Zelenskyy's First Ladies Summit, new UK/Japan/EU sanctions, German call for long-range weapons, US pressure on G7 for oil tariffs); exposing RF lies and disinformation (e.g., challenging Smolensk location, countering false claims about UAF drones, exposing RF propaganda videos, contradicting RF claims about Polish drone damage, strongly reacting to Trump's comments, with Polish FM Sikorski stating "This was not a mistake", countering RF narratives on Belgorod civilian casualties due to Pantsir booster); bolstering domestic and military morale (e.g., recognizing EW personnel, support for POW families, public solidarity, commemorating liberations, showcasing logistical support from civilian-military partnerships, celebrating individual valor like the DSHV soldier, humanitarian aid deliveries including body bags); framing RF actions as deliberate hybrid warfare (e.g., Zelenskyy on Polish drones); and emphasizing the human cost of the war due to RF aggression (e.g., Sumy security guard killed, residential destruction, graphic combat injury video, Sumy fatalities, graphic video of aftermath, tragedy in Nikopol, drone attack on civilian vehicle in Kharkiv). UAF is actively engaging in diplomatic efforts to maintain and strengthen alliances and counter divisive narratives from Hungary and Slovakia. UAF milbloggers (e.g., STERNENKO) track RF personnel losses, reflecting internal expectations for combat effectiveness. The Office of the Prosecutor General highlighting internal legal accountability (Poltava prison torture trial, humanitarian aid car sales detention) counters RF narratives about Ukrainian corruption. "Оперативний ЗСУ" criticizes Trump, reflecting frustration and an effort to manage narrative surrounding US support. The promotion of Prince Harry's visit is a key counter-narrative to RF attempts to portray Ukraine as isolated. "Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація" showcases President Zelenskyy at the First Ladies Summit, a clear UAF IO effort. NEW: UAF continues to document RF combat losses, including specific individuals like Andriy Kuzmin, to counter RF morale. NEW: UAF milbloggers (e.g., ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) immediately amplify successful deep strikes into RF territory (Leningrad Oblast). NEW: "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" shares images and videos of a UAF vehicle undergoing repair, demonstrating transparency and commitment to maintenance.

• Public sentiment and morale factors:

  • Ukraine (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Public sentiment remains generally resilient, bolstered by military successes (HUR naval strike, successful drone interceptions, 890 RF personnel losses, successful deep strikes, logistical support to the front, DSHV valor stories, new UAVs, claims of liberated villages, SBU counter-intelligence success, new rail line, alleged Transneft strike, alleged aircraft relocation), and continued international support (e.g., British/Polish FM visits, Prince Harry's visit, US Senate push for state sponsor of terrorism, First Ladies Summit, new UK/Japan/EU sanctions, German call for long-range weapons, US pressure on G7 for oil tariffs). However, sustained RF deep strikes on civilian infrastructure (Sumy, Kramatorsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy residential areas, Nikopol region) and high civilian casualties (Yarova, Polohy Raion, Prymorske, Sumy security guard, Sumy residential areas, Bytytsia, graphic aftermath video, drone attack on civilian vehicle in Kharkiv) will put pressure on civilian morale. The loss of UAF Major Borovyk and the Su-27 is a blow to military morale but will likely be framed heroically. Continued efforts to support POW families and recognize military valor are critical for sustaining morale. Graphic videos of battlefield injuries (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) serve to galvanize support and highlight the sacrifices being made. National unity is reinforced by minute of silence tributes. Humanitarian aid efforts (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) highlight community support despite the grim reality. The "Rubizh" brigade's fundraising drive indicates a public willingness to support military units. Public dissatisfaction with Trump's comments (Оперативний ЗСУ) reflects the importance of perceived unwavering international support. The detention of a woman selling humanitarian aid cars in Kyiv (Офіс Генерального прокурора) could negatively impact public trust in aid distribution if not handled transparently and swiftly, potentially dampening morale. NEW: Public fundraising for FPV drones and vehicles demonstrates strong morale and active participation in supporting the military.
  • Russia (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): RF public sentiment is largely controlled by state propaganda, which projects military strength, internal stability, and blames Ukraine/West for conflict. Increases in military salaries aim to boost morale and retention. However, RF drone attacks and claims of destruction of UAF vehicles aim to show effectiveness. Unverified reports of neglected soldiers' graves could pose a challenge to morale if widely disseminated internally. Economic strains (e.g., ruble depreciation, market volatility, impact of UAF deep strikes on energy infrastructure, increased car service costs, new EU/UK sanctions, sanctions against defense sector) could indirectly impact public sentiment. Regional and local elections will be used to project stability (e.g., Moscow voting centers, polling stations named after war participants). Casualties in Belgorod and Bryansk Oblasts, amplified by governors and milbloggers, aim to rally patriotic sentiment and justify continued military action. The effectiveness of Russian homeland air defense (221 UAVs downed, 33 in latest wave) will be used to reassure the public, though significant flight disruptions at major airports (Pulkovo) could cause public frustration. Promotion of religious and nationalistic events seeks to rally public support and divert attention from negative developments. The internal corruption charges against a former Deputy Shoigu could be a double-edged sword: projecting accountability but also revealing potential systemic issues. Celebrating electoral officials aims to project internal stability. The FSB detention of an alleged UAF financier will be used to reassure the public about internal security. The Myrotvorets listing of a Russian officer's son will be leveraged to rally public outrage and support for the SVO. The ASTRA report about the Pantsir booster causing civilian death in Belgorod could, if widely known, erode public trust in RF air defenses and the narrative of UAF sole responsibility, potentially impacting morale negatively or causing public questioning. The Bishkek earthquake, while unrelated, could distract some RF citizens. The lifting of Pskov airport restrictions may boost local morale. NEW: The death of Andriy Kuzmin, father of 12, near Byle (Kursk Oblast), if amplified by UAF IO, could further erode RF public morale about the human cost of the conflict. NEW: Celebration of "Archangel Spetsnaz" project leader aims to boost internal morale through heroism narratives. NEW: State media (TASS, Novosti Moskvy) reporting on Moscow's dry autumn aims to maintain an appearance of normalcy and stability.
  • International (HIGH CONFIDENCE): International support for Ukraine remains strong, evidenced by continued military and financial aid, and diplomatic engagements. NATO's coordinated response to RF airspace incursions (Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania border closures, fighter jet deployments) demonstrates resolve, although the crisis also reveals potential for diplomatic friction among allies (e.g., Hungary, Slovakia, Trump's statements). Japanese sanctions indicate continued international pressure on RF. British and Polish Foreign Ministers' visits to Kyiv signal strong bilateral and multilateral support. Prince Harry's visit garners positive international media attention. The new EU and British sanctions underscore continued international pressure. The US Senate push to name Russia a state sponsor of terrorism further indicates sustained pressure. Polish FM Sikorski's direct rebuttal to Trump regarding drone incursions is a significant statement reinforcing NATO unity and resolve. Germany's call for long-range weapons for Ukraine signals continued strong support from a key European partner. NEW: US pressure on G7 countries regarding tariffs on Russian oil indicates continued international efforts to impact RF's economy. Janus Putkonen's (Finnish milblogger) support for RF conspiracy theories about Polish drone incidents highlights challenges in countering disinformation within some international circles.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most likely enemy courses of action (MLCOA)

• MLCOA 1 (Ground Offensive Reinforcement and Consolidation - Pokrovsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Lyman, Sumy, Konstantinovka, Dobropillya, Novopavlovsk): RF will intensify ground offensives on the Pokrovsk axis, attempting to clear UAF from urban areas of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and consolidate gains towards Myrnograd. Simultaneously, RF will commit significant forces to consolidate and expand the new salient in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye, Novomykolaivka area), aiming to complete the encirclement of Velykomykhailivka, and continue advances towards Novoivanivka. RF will exploit the claimed control of Kolodyazi and Kirovsk and continue advances on the Krasny Liman direction, with a focus on Predtechino and Pleshcheyevka to enable further advance on Konstantinovka. RF's 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment and other units will initiate or intensify offensive operations on the Sumy front (Yunakovka area) to draw UAF reserves, supported by army aviation. High-tempo probing attacks will continue on the Kupyansk and South Donetsk axes to fix UAF reserves and prevent redeployments. RF will continue employing snipers for counter-UAV operations and utilize fiber-optic FPV drones for precision strikes against UAF logistics. RF will integrate newly delivered and modernized armored vehicles into these operations. RF will continue offensive operations in the Novopavlovsk direction. RF will also use FAB guided aerial bombs on UAF rear positions (Druzhkivka). RF FPV drone units (e.g., "Sparta" battalion) will continue to target UAF UAV control points and communications. (Confidence: HIGH)
• MLCOA 2 (Sustained Air/Missile Campaign Targeting Critical Infrastructure & Probing Homeland Defense): RF will conduct multiple waves of UAV strikes (30-60 drones per wave) and widespread guided aerial bomb (KAB) attacks, prioritizing Ukrainian energy, industrial, and logistical infrastructure, with continued ballistic missile threats from the north and Kursk Oblast, including against residential areas (e.g., Sumy Oblast, Zaporizhzhia, Leningrad Oblast, Druzhkivka). RF will aim to inflict maximum damage and civilian casualties in an attempt to erode morale. RF will also continue to conduct UAV incursions into Russian territory, likely for reconnaissance and to test UAF deep strike capabilities, while showcasing its enhanced air defense responses (e.g., claiming 221 UAVs downed) and amplifying claims of civilian casualties (e.g., Belgorod, Bryansk) but will attempt to redirect blame for collateral damage from its own systems (Belgorod Pantsir incident). RF will prioritize strikes on UAF UAV C2 and communications (Starlink) and artillery ammunition storage. RF will continue to test new drone systems, including those designed to evade EW. (Confidence: HIGH)
• MLCOA 3 (Escalated Hybrid Operations and Information Warfare with Border Provocations): RF will continue to probe NATO airspace with smaller, coordinated groups of UAVs to test response thresholds and identify vulnerabilities. This will be accompanied by an aggressive, multi-layered information campaign to deny responsibility for incursions (e.g., Poland drone damage pre-existing, Smolensk no damage), blame Ukraine (especially for civilian casualties in border regions like Bryansk, Belgorod, Kharkiv civilian vehicle), mock NATO's response, and amplify perceived disunity within the alliance (e.g., Trump's comments on Poland). RF will leverage the "West-2025" exercises for a show of force and internal propaganda, potentially staging border provocations involving Belarusian forces to maintain pressure on Poland and Lithuania, and projecting naval power in the Baltic/Barents Seas via Northern Fleet deployments. RF will also proactively frame battlefield developments (e.g., "looting" in Krasny Liman, "liberation" of Novopetrovskoye) and employ highly inflammatory narratives (e.g., TCC priest incident, SBU priest arrest, Myrotvorets listing of children/Kurtukova, Kuzminov's mother, father of murdered Ukrainian, blaming UAF for disrupting diplomacy) to control the narrative and demonize Ukrainian authorities. RF will also use internal security operations (e.g., FSB Klimovsk) for propaganda and promote internal electoral processes (naming polling stations after war participants). RF will continue to leverage international events (e.g., Brazil) and blame UAF for disrupting diplomacy (Russia-US summit). RF will also actively work to discredit Western military aid and counter Ukrainian IO efforts, including claims of "fake" videos. (Confidence: HIGH)

5.2. Most dangerous enemy courses of action (MDCOA)

• MDCOA 1 (Breakthrough and Deep Encirclement - Dnipropetrovsk & Sumy): RF achieves a decisive breakthrough from the Sosnovka/Novopetrovskoye/ Novomykolaivka salient, successfully encircling and isolating a significant UAF grouping in Velykomykhailivka, and rapidly advancing deeper into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, potentially towards Novoivanivka. Concurrently, a successful multi-battalion RF offensive from the Sumy direction, leveraging the 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment's advance and potentially motorcycle assault tactics and army aviation, could breach UAF defensive lines, threatening Sumy city and critical supply routes, forcing UAF to make difficult choices regarding strategic withdrawals and resource allocation, potentially leading to a collapse of defensive lines in both regions. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
• MDCOA 2 (Coordinated Multi-National Hybrid Attack on NATO & Ukraine): RF orchestrates a large-scale, multi-national (RF/Belarus) hybrid attack targeting critical infrastructure in NATO border states (e.g., energy grids, transportation hubs, military installations) using a combination of drones, cyber attacks, and potentially special forces, aiming to overwhelm NATO's collective defense response and trigger an Article 5 scenario. This could coincide with a renewed, large-scale ground offensive in Ukraine, exploiting weakened UAF positions, possibly leveraging the "West-2025" exercises as a cover and demonstrating naval power projection, potentially with a long-term strategic aim of capturing Odesa and Mykolaiv. The alleged relocation of UAF military aircraft to Poland/Romania could be a precursor to this, indicating RF's intent to deny UAF air assets easy access to the battlefield. This could be further reinforced by the rumored testing of advanced EW-evading drones. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
• MDCOA 3 (Strategic Paralysis via Massed, Multi-Domain Strike with Chemical/Tactical Nuclear Threat): RF executes an even larger, highly coordinated multi-domain strike across Ukraine, combining an unprecedented number of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and UAVs (400+ targets) with simultaneous cyber attacks on Ukrainian C2 and critical infrastructure, aiming to achieve strategic paralysis. This could be accompanied by a credible threat of tactical chemical or nuclear weapon use against a non-combatant target to psychologically break Ukrainian resolve and force negotiations on RF terms. (Confidence: LOW)

5.3. Timeline estimates and decision points

• Next 24-48 Hours (Immediate Threat):

  • Ground Operations (Pokrovsk/Dnipropetrovsk/Lyman/Sumy/Konstantinovka/Dobropillya/Novopavlovsk): RF will likely attempt to consolidate gains in Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye, and Novomykolaivka and intensify pressure on Velykomykhailivka, potentially attempting an encirclement. Increased RF activity on the Sumy front (Yunakovka) is expected, along with consolidation and further advances from Kolodyazi and Kirovsk, supported by army aviation. Sustained pressure on Predtechino and Pleshcheyevka (Konstantinovka direction) is expected. Offensive operations in the Novopavlovsk direction (including towards Novoivanivka) will continue. UAF counter-offensive to clear Shakhove and Volodymyrivka will require consolidation and defensive preparation. Decision point for UAF is immediate counter-deployment or tactical withdrawal from Velykomykhailivka/Novomykolaivka/reinforcement of Sumy, Krasny Liman, Konstantinovka, Dobropillya, and Novopavlovsk defenses.
  • Air Campaign: Continued high-volume UAV/KAB/missile attacks on energy and critical infrastructure, as well as residential areas across Ukraine (e.g., Sumy Oblast, Zaporizhzhia, Druzhkivka, Leningrad Oblast), with RF likely responding to UAF deep strikes with intensified aerial attacks. RF will continue targeting UAF UAV C2, communications (including Starlink antennas), and artillery logistics. Decision point for UAF is further dispersal of air defense assets or prioritization of targets.
  • NATO Border/RF Deep Strikes: Continued RF probing of NATO airspace, potentially with increased volume or more advanced drones. UAF deep strikes against RF territory (especially energy/military logistics, potentially including Vladimir Oblast) are likely to continue, drawing further RF air defense responses and disruptions to civilian air traffic. Decision point for NATO is escalation of ROE or direct defensive action against incursions. UAF must rapidly verify the Smolensk damage claims and the Vladimir Oblast Transneft strike. The Pskov Governor's information control indicates this is a high-priority issue for RF. RF will likely attempt to suppress or distort information regarding the Belgorod Pantsir incident.
  • Information Environment: RF will continue aggressive IO campaigns leveraging new battlefield developments (Sosnovka, Novopetrovskoye, Novomykolaivka, Kolodyazi, Kirovsk, Sumy, Predtechino/Pleshcheyevka, Pokrovsk-Myrnograd, Borovska Andriyivka, Novopavlovsk, Novoivanivka), civilian casualties in Russia (Bryansk minibus, Belgorod, Kharkiv civilian vehicle), diplomatic incidents, and promoting narratives of UAF "looting" and impending withdrawals, while discrediting Polish drone claims and denying damage (Smolensk). Inflammatory narratives (TCC priest, SBU priest arrest, Myrotvorets listing of children/Kurtukova, Kuzminov's mother, father of murdered Ukrainian) will be amplified. RF will also leverage the Myrotvorets listing of a Russian officer's child. RF will continue to exploit international political events (Brazil) and blame UAF for disrupting diplomacy. RF will use domestic events (e.g., election polling station names) to normalize the conflict. RF will also actively discredit Western military aid (Patriot claims) and counter UAF deep strike narratives. Decision point for UAF is to proactively counter RF narratives, amplify its own successes (e.g., 890 RF losses, deep strikes, logistical support to front, DSHV valor, liberated villages, SBU counter-intelligence, new rail line, alleged Transneft strike, alleged aircraft relocation, countering Pantsir incident blame, documenting RF losses like Kuzmin), and coordinate messaging with NATO allies during high-level visits, leveraging Prince Harry's visit and the First Ladies Summit, as well as statements by Polish FM Sikorski, and Germany's call for long-range weapons.

• Next 72 Hours (Short-Term Escalation):

  • Ground: If successful in Velykomykhailivka, Novopetrovskoye, Novomykolaivka, Krasny Liman/Kirovsk, Konstantinovka, Novopavlovsk or on the Sumy front, RF may attempt to exploit these salients further, potentially integrating newly delivered armored vehicles. If UAF successfully consolidates Dobropillya gains, it may open opportunities for further local counter-offensives. If repelled, RF will likely reinforce and re-evaluate, but maintain pressure.
  • Air: RF could initiate another massed air strike (200+ targets) if previous attacks degrade UAF air defenses sufficiently or in response to UAF deep strikes. The testing of EW-evading drones could lead to early deployment if successful.
  • Hybrid: Continued and potentially more overt hybrid operations against NATO, possibly using conventional forces in Belarus to apply pressure on Polish/Lithuanian borders, coinciding with "West-2025" exercises and naval power projection. The claimed relocation of UAF aircraft to Poland/Romania will likely be a key IO and operational consideration for RF in this timeframe.
  • Diplomatic: Expect heightened diplomatic activity and potential for emergency NATO consultations if hybrid actions escalate significantly. Continued high-level visits to Kyiv will aim to solidify support. New EU and UK sanctions will come into effect, likely drawing a strong RF response, particularly against its defense sector. Germany's push for stricter visa restrictions will become a key diplomatic issue. US pressure on G7 countries regarding oil tariffs could gain momentum.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize Immediate Defensive Reinforcement for Velykomykhailivka, Novomykolaivka, Novopetrovskoye, Sumy Front, Krasny Liman, Konstantinovka, Dobropillya, and Novopavlovsk Directions: Immediately redeploy available combat-effective reserves (manpower, artillery, armor, including anti-armor assets) to establish a hardened defensive perimeter and counter-encirclement capability around Velykomykhailivka, Novomykolaivka, and Novopetrovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Critically reinforce UAF positions on the Sumy front, particularly in the Yunakovka area, and establish strong defensive lines against advances from Kolodyazi and Kirovsk on the Krasny Liman direction. Reinforce defenses around Predtechino and Pleshcheyevka to halt advances on Konstantinovka. Support UAF forces consolidating gains in Shakhove and Volodymyrivka on the Dobropillya direction. Monitor and prepare defenses for RF activity in the Novopavlovsk direction (including Novoivanivka). Prioritize close air support and anti-armor assets for these critical sectors. Assess the impact and potential deployment of newly delivered RF BMP-3s and modernized BMD-2s in these critical areas and adapt defenses accordingly. (PIR 1.4: CRITICAL: Sosnovka BDA and UAF posture in Velykomykhailivka; CRITICAL: RF 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment strength and UAF posture in Sumy; HIGH: Status of Kolodyazi and RF intentions; CRITICAL: Kirovsk BDA; CRITICAL: Konstantinovka mechanized offensive; CRITICAL: Sumy village BDA; CRITICAL: Shakhove/Volodymyrivka BDA; MEDIUM: New RF armored vehicles; MEDIUM: Kharkiv/Iziumskyi aviation ops; CRITICAL: Novomykolaivka BDA; CRITICAL: Novopetrovskoye BDA; MEDIUM: Novopavlovsk map details; CRITICAL: Novoivanivka map details; CRITICAL: DeepState map update).
2. Expedite Advanced Air Defense Deployment to Critical Infrastructure and Western/Central Ukraine, and Enhance Battlefield Air Defense: Request immediate acceleration of Western air defense system deliveries (e.g., Patriot, NASAMS) and munitions, prioritizing deployment to critical energy, DIB, and national C2 nodes, particularly in Western and Central Ukraine. Coordinate with NATO for enhanced real-time intelligence sharing on RF strike packages. Simultaneously, enhance forward-deployed tactical air defense systems to protect ground forces and C2 nodes from RF guided aerial bombs and FPV drones, especially in the Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia directions. Implement rapid counter-measures against RF sniper-drone tactics. Actively counter RF FAB guided aerial bomb strikes on rear areas. Implement countermeasures against RF's claimed new EW-evading drones. (PIR 1.4: CRITICAL: DIB facilities BDA; HIGH: RF sniper-drone tactics; HIGH: Druzhkivka KAB BDA; HIGH: RF EW-evading drone capabilities).
3. Intensify Deep Strike Operations Against RF Logistical Hubs, Energy Infrastructure, and Airfields with Focus on NW RF, and Rapid BDA: Capitalize on recent successes (Primorsk oil depot/pumping station) by planning and executing follow-on deep strike operations against known RF fuel and ammunition depots, energy infrastructure (refineries, ports, LUKOIL facilities, Transneft pumping stations), transportation hubs (rail, port), and airfields to disrupt RF's ability to sustain multi-axis offensives and air campaigns. Prioritize targets in Northwestern Russia to maximize disruption to critical supply lines supporting the war effort and to increase pressure on RF's homeland air defense. Crucially, establish immediate, independent BDA verification for all deep strikes, especially in Smolensk and Vladimir Oblast, to counter RF denial narratives. (PIR 1.4: CRITICAL: Smolensk, Primorsk BDA; CRITICAL: Transneft Vladimir Oblast BDA).
4. Launch Coordinated IO Campaign to Counter RF Narratives on Civilian Casualties, NATO Disunity, Battlefield Claims, and Inflammatory Content: Immediately task STRATCOM to develop and disseminate targeted information products. Highlight confirmed RF logistical vulnerabilities and casualties from UAF strikes (e.g., 890 RF personnel, UAF deep strike successes, graphic aftermath video, claimed Transneft strike, claimed aircraft relocation, RF contract soldier Kuzmin's elimination). Simultaneously, proactively counter RF narratives on UAF targeting civilians in Russia (especially regarding the Bryansk minibus and Belgorod casualties) by providing verifiable evidence of RF targeting Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure (e.g., Sumy residential areas, Bytytsia fatalities, Nikopol tragedy, drone attack on civilian vehicle in Kharkiv), and crucially, leverage the Belgorod Pantsir incident to expose RF's own responsibility for civilian casualties in its territory. Emphasize allied military cooperation and mutual defense commitments to counter claims of NATO disunity (e.g., Trump's comments, strongly amplify Polish FM Sikorski's statement). Actively discredit RF claims of UAF "looting" and impending withdrawals by showcasing UAF resilience and successful defense. Rapidly address and expose inflammatory RF narratives (e.g., TCC priest incident, Myrotvorets listing of children/Kurtukova, Kuzminov's mother, father of murdered Ukrainian, blaming UAF for disrupting diplomacy, discrediting Patriot aid, Polish drone incident staging claims) as propaganda. Coordinate messaging with Polish, British, and other allied counterparts during ongoing high-level diplomatic visits (Prince Harry, FMs), leveraging the First Ladies Summit for positive messaging. (PIR 1.4: CRITICAL: RF logistics, NATO ROE, RF IO narratives; CRITICAL: Graphic aftermath video; NEW: Belgorod Pantsir incident; NEW: Transneft Vladimir Oblast BDA; NEW: UAF aircraft relocation; NEW: RF IO on diplomacy, Myrotvorets/Kurtukova, Kuzminov, father of Ukrainian).
5. Conduct Comprehensive Review of Drone Combat Doctrine, Counter-UAV Capabilities, and Procurement, Including Anti-Motorcycle Tactics: Task UAF G6 and Air Force to immediately review current drone combat doctrine, particularly regarding drone-on-drone engagements and anti-drone defenses. Allocate resources for accelerated procurement and development of advanced counter-UAV systems, EW capabilities, and reactive drones to maintain air superiority in the tactical and operational domains against both RF kamikaze drones and reconnaissance UAVs, including counter-measures for RF FPV drone ambushes on UAF transport in forest belts (Kharkiv, Chernihiv). Develop and disseminate specific anti-motorcycle assault tactics and deploy appropriate assets (e.g., anti-personnel mines, heavy machine guns, FPV drones) to identified high-risk areas. Incorporate lessons learned from RF sniper tactics against "Baba Yaga" drones. Investigate the claimed destruction of UAF 155mm charges for lessons learned. (PIR 1.4: HIGH: Drone-on-drone combat, reactive drones; CRITICAL: RF motorcycle assaults; HIGH: RF sniper-drone tactics; CRITICAL: 155mm charge destruction BDA). Review of counter-C2 tactics to mitigate effectiveness of RF 68th ORB and RF "Sparta" battalion. (PIR 1.4: CRITICAL: RF 68th ORB counter-C2 BDA; CRITICAL: RF "Sparta" battalion counter-C2 BDA). Investigate raid actions of "Morok" battalion to extract best practices.
6. Enhance Border Surveillance and Interdiction Against Hybrid Incursions and RF Unit Movements, and Share Intelligence with NATO: Increase all-source ISR (IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT) along the borders with Belarus and RF (Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv) to detect and interdict RF/Belarusian hybrid operations, including drone incursions and special forces activities. Specifically monitor for movements of RF units (e.g., 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment) and potential staging for cross-border ground operations. Coordinate with Polish, Latvian, and Lithuanian counterparts for real-time intelligence sharing on RF/Belarusian force posture, "West-2025" activities, and to deconflict any cross-border UAF operations in response to hybrid threats. Monitor for any RF internal security operations (e.g., Klimovsk FSB) that could impact their operational readiness or domestic morale. Monitor the impact of geomagnetic disturbances on ISR/C2 systems. Verify claimed relocation of UAF military aircraft to Poland/Romania and assess its implications for joint defense planning. (PIR 1.4: CRITICAL: Poland border closure impact, Belarusian border reinforcement, RF UAVs Sumy/Kharkiv, CRITICAL: RF 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment; CRITICAL: "West-2025" scope; HIGH: Klimovsk FSB operation; HIGH: Geomagnetic disturbances; CRITICAL: UAF aircraft relocation).
7. Leverage New European Rail Connectivity for Logistics and Enhance Anti-Corruption Efforts: Fully assess the capacity and security of the newly opened Uzhhorod-Budapest-Vienna European gauge rail line. Integrate this route into long-term logistics planning for both military resupply and humanitarian aid, reducing reliance on other potentially vulnerable routes. Simultaneously, reinforce anti-corruption measures, especially within humanitarian and military aid channels, following the recent detention in Kyiv. (PIR 1.4: MEDIUM: New rail line capacity; MEDIUM: Humanitarian aid car sales detention).

//END REPORT//