Situation Report

SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - 120800Z SEP 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (Confidence: HIGH)

RF forces maintain multi-axis pressure, with the Pokrovsk axis remaining the primary operational focus, where urban combat in Muravka and Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) is ongoing. RF forces of "Vostok" Grouping have "liberated" Sosnovka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a significant RF advance aiming to enhance encirclement of a UAF grouping in Velykomykhailivka. Combat is also reported south of Stepnohirsk with active RF aviation support. On the Lyman axis, RF claims to be assaulting Zarechnoye and reports activity near Kolodyazi. Intense combat continues near Krasny Liman, DPR, with the RF 103rd Regiment advancing towards Konstantinovka, now reportedly 7 km from the city. On the Siverske direction, RF forces claim control of approximately 50% of Pereyizne and advances in the Kremensky forests, taking control of approximately 3 km of the administrative border. RF UAVs are establishing "fire control" over UAF logistical routes near Krasny Liman and Izium-Barvinkove, and claim control of 1.5 km of a supply route in Kupyansk. RF claims "liberation" of Zelenyi Hai and fighting for Torske, indicating sustained offensive operations on the Lyman direction. RF forces have "expelled the enemy from Katerynivka" and continue to advance in the Konstantinovka direction, near Kleban-Byk and Pleshcheyevka, maintaining pressure on this critical UAF defensive axis. Offensive action near Chasiv Yar involves airborne units engaging enemy infantry.

GSU reports indicate a significant concentration of RF forces and 130 combat engagements over the past 24 hours on the Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka, and Shakhtarske directions, with UAF repelling numerous attacks. RF is attempting to advance near Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, and claims to have repelled a UAF counterattack on the left bank of the Vovcha River, occupying four technical buildings. RF Special Forces (14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, "Sida" detachment of AHMAT, "Anvar" detachment) are actively supporting ground assaults on the South Donetsk direction and conducting precision strikes against UAF artillery on the Sumy direction, with "Anvar" operating in buffer zones along the Kharkiv and Chernihiv borders. RF is reportedly bringing up reserves to Vovchansk. The Kherson-Mykolaiv highway is claimed to be under RF fire control. UAF forces successfully destroyed a bridge over the Siverskyi Donets river near Nova Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, Russia, using FPV drones and pre-planted mines, disrupting RF logistical movement. Widespread destruction in Vovchansk confirms heavy combat and significant damage. RF forces continue FPV drone operations targeting UAF logistics and personnel across multiple sectors. Drone footage indicates RF strikes on trenches, a command post, and a communications tower on the Rubtsovsk direction, with suggested electronic warfare activity against "STARLINK." RF forces are actively countering UAF attempts to regain Udachnoye, displaying a presence in previously contested structures. RF "Молния-2" UAVs reportedly struck a UAF temporary deployment point (PVD) in Sumy Oblast. RF UAV operators are disrupting UAF rotations in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. NEW: UAF reports one civilian killed in Polohy Raion due to enemy attacks.

Deep strikes persist on Ukrainian energy, industrial, and civilian infrastructure across 15 oblasts. Confirmed damage to the Sumy Oblast Administration (OVA) building, Ukrainian Government Headquarters in Kyiv, Sokil ice arena, Cabinet of Ministers building, and the Trypilska TPP. The death toll from the aviation bomb strike on Yarova, Donetsk Oblast, has risen to 25. Civilian casualties and damage from combined missile and drone attacks are confirmed in Vinnytsia (31 injured), Khmelnytskyi (sewing factory destroyed, 3 injured), Zhytomyr (1 killed, 5 injured), and Kramatorsk (central square, residential areas, market hit by drones). An energy object in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast has been hit by drones. Zaporizhzhia suffered a drone attack on a residential building, injuring two civilians, with four additional wounded reported from attacks on Prymorske and Zaporizhzhia. The 68-year-old man severely injured in a drone strike on Prymorske yesterday has died in hospital. Mykolaiv has experienced drone threats and explosions. Berdychiv (Zhytomyr Oblast) was hit by missile strikes. An enemy strike on an educational institution and the Holy Resurrection Cathedral in Sumy is confirmed. A "Shahed" drone hit one of Chernihiv's enterprises, causing a fire. Strikes on Nikopol region continued all day, affecting Nikopol, Marhanets, Pokrovsk, Myrove, and Chervonohryhorivka communities with artillery and drones. NEW: Acting Mayor of Sumy, Artem Kobzar, confirms two drone strikes on a non-residential building in Sumy, with casualty information being clarified. NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports RF struck a "promyslova zona" (industrial zone) on the outskirts of Sumy with drones.

Reports indicate at least eight explosions in occupied Donetsk, with TASS claiming UAF missile attacks repelled. Mash on Donbas reports power outages in Kyivskyi district of Donetsk and damaged windows in a traumatology hospital and nearby residential buildings, with a new video claiming a multi-apartment building in Donetsk was hit, "presumably by NATO MLRS." UAF FPV drones reportedly attacked a civilian vehicle near Polyana, Starodubsky Municipal District, Belgorod Oblast, Russia. ASTRA reports 6 people were injured in attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Belgorod Oblast, with a Pyaterochka supermarket among the affected targets. Explosions and fire in Smolensk, Russia, with claims of drone attacks on a gas station and a Lukoil oil depot. An ammunition depot in occupied Luhansk is also reported to be exploding due to UAF drone strikes. An attack by over 30 UAVs was repelled in three municipalities of Rostov Oblast, causing damage to a private house and two cars, but no casualties. A massive drone attack was launched on Leningrad Oblast overnight, with a fire reported on a vessel in Primorsk port, which has since been extinguished. NEW: ASTRA reports a fire on a pumping station in Primorsk was also extinguished, without casualties. NEW: TASS reports one person killed and 24 injured over two days in Belgorod Oblast from UAF attacks. NEW: Russian MoD claims to have shot down 221 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions overnight, with 9 of them over the Moscow region.

UAV activity remains extremely high. UAF Air Force reports 62 of 66 enemy UAV targets were shot down/suppressed overnight. Groups of enemy UAVs are entering southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast from Temporarily Occupied Territories (TOT), course - north/northwest, and additional KABs are launched on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. RF claims destruction of 225 Ukrainian UAVs, one Neptune guided missile, and three HIMARS MLRS rockets over the past day. RF reconnaissance UAVs are active in the Black Sea towards Odesa and in Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts. RF drones are confirmed active across central, western, and northern Ukraine. UAF Air Force reports guided aerial bombs launched on Donetsk Oblast and Sumy Oblast. A RF kamikaze drone "Upyr" was reported engaging a UAF interceptor drone near Prykolotne, Kharkiv Oblast. UAF 'Lazar' unit utilized FPV drones to destroy a bridge near Nova Tavolzhanka. A Ukrainian "Yozhka" drone was reportedly shot down near Lyman. Reconnaissance UAVs are reported in central Chernihiv Oblast. A captured Ukrainian reconnaissance drone ("Shark") was showcased, claimed to be destroyed by RF "Fever" fighters. UAF thermal imaging drone video shows a series of artillery strikes impacting Russian military positions in Kharkiv direction. RF drone footage showcases identification and engagement of various enemy assets including a pickup truck, a Leopard-1 tank, artillery, an unknown vehicle, and an antenna, as well as a 'BABA-YAGA' drone. NEW: UAF General Staff reports RF combat losses over the last 24 hours include 890 personnel.

Ukrainian HUR (Main Intelligence Directorate) units successfully struck and disabled an RF Black Sea Fleet vessel (Project MPSV07) near Novorossiysk. Russian channels are circulating video of a missile attack on artillery depots of RF's "Dnipro" Grouping of Forces located in Sonyachna Dolyna near Sudak in occupied Crimea.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (Confidence: HIGH)

Conditions remained generally clear and favorable for air operations, including missile and UAV strikes across most of Ukraine. Localized heavy rainfall caused significant flooding in Kyiv. Expected thunderstorms in Kharkiv could temporarily impact local air operations. Storm weather is reported in Donetsk. RF tactical aviation is actively launching KABs on Sumy, Donetsk, and northern Kharkiv Oblasts. A ballistic missile threat from the northeast has been reported and subsequently lifted for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reconnaissance UAVs are active over the Black Sea towards Odesa and in Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts. RF drones are confirmed active across central, western, and northern Ukraine. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is under missile threat, with drone attacks confirmed on Synelnykove. A nationwide air raid alert was active due to the launch of an RF MiG-31K, a carrier of the "Kinzhal" aeroballistic missile, which was subsequently lifted. Fields and dry grass caught fire on the outskirts of Yenakiieve, potentially impacting visibility. Over 201 hectares of Kharkiv Oblast territory demined in a week. Krasnodar airport has reopened for civilian flights for the first time since the start of the war, indicating an improving logistical environment in southern RF. A Mi-8 helicopter made a hard landing in Kaliningrad due to bad weather. Poland has closed its border with Belarus, with military personnel deploying barricades and concertina wire. Air defense forces are active against UAVs over the southwestern part of Leningrad Oblast, and Pulkovo airport has implemented a "Carpet" plan (airspace closure). Enemy UAVs are detected in eastern Sumy Oblast, moving west. Additional UAVs heading towards Moscow have been destroyed. Pulkovo airport has warned of possible schedule adjustments. Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation are reported in Sumy Oblast. Enemy strike UAVs are detected in the Kakhovka region (Kherson Oblast), moving towards Mykolaiv Oblast. Over 20 UAVs have been destroyed over Leningrad Oblast, with debris fall recorded in Tosno. Enemy drones are approaching Kharkiv from the east. Air defense is active in Kyiv Oblast. Restrictions have been imposed in the airports of Ivanovo, Pskov, Yaroslavl, and St. Petersburg overnight. Enemy UAVs are detected in the northeastern part of Sumy Oblast. An explosion has been heard in Sumy, followed by several more explosions amidst drone activity. A ballistic missile threat from Kursk Oblast has been issued and subsequently lifted. The fire on a vessel in Primorsk port has been extinguished. "West-2025" joint exercises of Belarusian and Russian armed forces have started on training grounds in both countries and in the Baltic and Barents Seas.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (Confidence: HIGH)

• RF:

  • Ground Forces: RF continues its multi-axis ground offensive, notably on the Pokrovsk axis (Chynyshyn, Muravka, Krasnoarmeysk), Novopavlivka, Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, South Slobozhansky (Vovchansk), and Kupyansk directions. The "Vostok" Grouping has liberated Sosnovka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, aiming to encircle UAF in Velykomykhailivka. Specific units involved include marine infantry, "Somali" battalion elements, and the RF 103rd Regiment. "Otvazhnye" units are heavily engaged near Pokrovsk. TASS reports RF forces have taken control of approximately 50% of Pereyizne, south of Siversk, DPR. RF has introduced 'Kur'er' robotic complexes and "Veterok" fiber-optic drones. "Anvar" special forces are active near the Sumy/Chernihiv border, clearing buffer zones. Rosgvardia has been armed with tank and anti-tank guns, self-propelled artillery, and MLRS, and has executed over 60,000 fire and tactical missions. The RF 238th Brigade claims to have destroyed a UAF UAV control post in Berestok. "Terminator" tank support fighting vehicles are training in a rear area. Rosgvardia has recreated tank units and significantly increased artillery firepower. Assault groups of the 20th Army are undergoing combat training. "West-AHMAT" battalion (RF MoD) and Russian Internal Affairs Ministry (OMVD) personnel, along with the RF 128th Brigade, are engaged in combat operations in the Vovchansk area, Kharkiv direction, using FPV drones. RF forces have "expelled the enemy from Katerynivka" and continue to advance in the Konstantinovka direction, near Kleban-Byk and Pleshcheyevka, and on the Borovskoe direction. Combat is confirmed in the vicinity of Konstantinovka. Airborne units are engaging enemy infantry near Chasiv Yar. RF forces are operating on the Rubtsovsk direction, conducting strikes on trenches, a command post, and a communications tower, with suggested electronic warfare activity. RF forces are actively engaging UAF attempts to regain Udachnoye, utilizing drone-guided strikes. "Молния-2" UAVs from Tula paratroopers reportedly hit a UAF temporary deployment point (PVD) in Sumy Oblast. The "Pyatnashka" International Brigade is active in reconnaissance and artillery roles. FPV drone crews of the RF 68th Motorized Rifle Division are conducting ambushes on UAF transport in Kharkiv Oblast. RF UAV operators are disrupting UAF rotations in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The RF 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (Vostok Grouping) is conducting reconnaissance operations in the South Donetsk direction.
  • Air/Missile Forces: RF executed a UAV-centric air attack, with UAF Air Force reporting a 94% interception rate (62 of 66 UAVs). Groups of enemy UAVs are entering southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast from TOT, course - north/northwest. Launches of KABs on Sumy, Northern Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts. TASS reports 5 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over Belgorod Oblast. RF Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs on eastern Kharkiv Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, and Sumy Oblast. A RF kamikaze drone "Upyr" engaged a UAF interceptor drone near Prykolotne, Kharkiv Oblast. A Ukrainian "Yozhka" drone was reportedly shot down near Lyman. Reconnaissance UAVs are reported in central Chernihiv Oblast and south of Zaporizhzhia. RF drone footage showcases identification and engagement of various enemy assets including a 'BABA-YAGA' drone. A ballistic missile threat from the north was issued. Enemy UAVs are moving towards Zaporizhzhia city from the east. RF Air Defense Forces destroyed five enemy UAVs heading towards Moscow, with a total of seven destroyed. Air defense forces are active against UAVs over the southwestern part of Leningrad Oblast, and Pulkovo airport has implemented a "Carpet" plan (airspace closure). Enemy UAVs are detected in eastern Sumy Oblast, moving west. Two more UAVs heading towards Moscow have been destroyed. Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation are reported in Sumy Oblast. Enemy strike UAVs are detected in the Kakhovka region (Kherson Oblast), moving towards Mykolaiv Oblast. Over 20 UAVs have been destroyed over Leningrad Oblast. Enemy drones are approaching Kharkiv from the east. An enemy UAV has been detected in Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorod and Bucha districts), moving west, with PVO active. Restrictions have been imposed in the airports of Ivanovo, Pskov, Yaroslavl, and St. Petersburg overnight. Enemy UAVs are detected in the northeastern part of Sumy Oblast, followed by explosions in Sumy. A ballistic missile threat from Kursk Oblast has been issued. Over 30 UAVs were repelled in three municipalities of Rostov Oblast. A massive drone attack was launched on Leningrad Oblast overnight, with a fire reported on a vessel in Primorsk port. Drone footage from an Orlan-10 variant shows identification and targeting of Ukrainian military positions/vehicles on the Zaporizhzhia front, followed by a missile launch.
  • Naval Forces: USV attack on Novorossiysk confirmed, disabling an RF Black Sea Fleet vessel (Project MPSV07).
  • Information Warfare (IO): RF is actively pushing narratives to discredit Ukraine, sow discord among allies, leveraging various diplomatic and internal events (e.g., Zelenskyy's statements, Hungarian FM's accusations, US internal issues like the Charlie Kirk assassination). RF media denies deliberate drone incursions into Poland while milbloggers promote narratives questioning their origin. RF leverages statements on Germany's need to increase Bundeswehr strength to portray NATO as weak. RF promotes narratives on Slovakia rejecting Western troops in Ukraine. RF IO also focuses on internal morale-boosting and patriotism, such as the increased military personnel salaries and celebrating military education bodies. RF claims UAF units on the Serebryansk direction received direct orders to shoot at civilians. RF continues to use child-centric propaganda.
  • NEW: Japan has imposed sanctions on 14 individuals and 48 companies/organizations from RF, 3 companies from Seychelles and Marshall Islands, and export restrictions against 2 RF companies and 9 companies from UAE, Turkey, and China. Japan has lowered the price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $47.6 per barrel. Japan has excluded Karina Rotenberg from its sanctions list. Japan's MFA states Sakhalin-2 oil is exempt from price cap for energy security reasons.

• UAF:

  • Ground Forces: UAF repelled 130 RF attacks across all major axes in the last 24 hours. UAF drone operators are demonstrating tactical effectiveness against RF infantry, vehicles, and logistics. UAF 'Lazar' unit successfully destroyed a bridge near Nova Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, Russia. Ukrainian special forces destroyed an RF BMD-3 in the Zaporizhzhia direction. UAF 'UA_reg' special forces conducted successful strikes against enemy artillery and personnel in Kursk Oblast.
  • Air/Missile Forces: UAF Air Defenses achieved a 94% interception rate (62 of 66 UAVs) against a significant RF air attack. HUR MOD specialists shot down 20 enemy drones. Shahed drone debris was found in Odesa. UAF kamikaze drones cleared an RF roadblock. A ballistic missile threat from the north was lifted. Air raid alerts for Zaporizhzhia and Odesa Oblasts were lifted, indicating successful air defense.
  • Naval Forces: Ukrainian HUR units successfully struck and disabled an RF Black Sea Fleet vessel (Project MPSV07) near Novorossiysk.
  • Information Warfare/Diplomacy: UAF continues to demonstrate asymmetric warfare capabilities through resistance movements like "ATESH." Poland has committed to cooperating with Ukraine on anti-drone systems. Sweden has provided its 20th package of military aid ($836M) and committed $4.276B annually for 2026-2027. Rheinmetall will deploy shell production in a safe region of Ukraine. President Zelenskyy met with US Special Representative General Keith Kellogg, as well as Danish, Finnish, and Estonian officials, confirming continued high-level support. UAF is actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to enhance international cooperation and air defense capabilities, including sharing expertise on countering Shaheds and training Polish military personnel on drone interception. UAF recognizes EW personnel day.
  • Casualties: One civilian killed in Polohy Raion due to enemy attacks. The death of a 15-year-old boy in Kharkiv due to RF shelling. The 68-year-old man severely injured in a drone strike on Prymorske yesterday has died in hospital. UAF General Staff reports RF combat losses over the last 24 hours include 890 personnel. NEW: UAF General Staff reports 890 RF personnel eliminated over the past 24 hours (Sept 11-12).

1.4. Intelligence Gaps (Confidence: HIGH)

• CRITICAL: What is the specific BDA of the alleged "liberation" of Sosnovka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by the RF "Vostok" Grouping/Russian Army? What UAF units were defending it, and what is the current UAF posture in Velykomykhailivka, which RF claims to be encircling?
• CRITICAL: What specific RF air defense system or air-to-air asset was responsible for the downing of the UAF Su-27 in the Zaporizhzhia direction, and what is the operational impact on UAF air superiority in this sector?
• CRITICAL: What specific targets were hit in Smolensk, Russia, and what UAF assets were responsible for these strikes? What is the full BDA and operational impact on RF military/logistical infrastructure in the region?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific type and BDA of the vessel that caught fire in Primorsk port, Leningrad Oblast (Два майора, ASTRA)? What is the operational impact on RF naval logistics and energy exports?
• CRITICAL: What is the full scope and specific objectives of the "West-2025" exercises (TASS)? What RF and Belarusian units are participating, what new capabilities are being tested, and what are the implications for potential future offensive operations against Ukraine or NATO?
• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA and verified location of the alleged "neutralization of a UAF UAV command post" by a T-90M tank in the Krasny Liman direction (MoD Russia)? What is the impact on UAF drone operations in the area?
• CRITICAL: What specific composition, deployment, and operational readiness of the recreated tank units within Rosgvardia, and how does this impact RF's overall ground combat capabilities and tactics (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z)?
• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA and verified location of the alleged "destruction of a UAF UAV control post" by the RF 238th Brigade in Berestok (Народная милиция ДНР)? What is the impact on UAF drone operations in the area?
• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA and specific details of the alleged RF strikes on the Lviv Armored Plant, Lviv Aviation Plant, and other DIB facilities in western Ukraine?
• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA and specific details of the alleged defection of a Russian soldier to the UAF after killing two officers and destroying his position, as reported by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС? What unit was he from, and what actionable intelligence has he provided?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific impact and BDA of the new RF mechanized offensive on the Kostiantynivka direction, as reported by STERNENKO? What RF units are involved, and what UAF forces are counter-attacking?
• CRITICAL: What are the specific capabilities and operational readiness of the 20th Brigade "Lyubart" (1st Azov Corps of the National Guard of Ukraine), as highlighted by Оперативний ЗСУ, particularly regarding their drone capabilities and combat experience?
• CRITICAL: What are the verified details of the alleged detention of Ukrainian citizens in Georgia for attempting to smuggle 2.4 kg of hexogen, as reported by Военкор Котенок? Is there any evidence linking this to UAF operations?
• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA and specific details of the RF air defense upgrade, with Rosgvardia receiving tank and anti-tank guns, self-propelled artillery, and MLRS, as reported by TASS? What is the operational impact on the effectiveness of RF internal security forces on the front lines?
• CRITICAL: What are the specific objectives and implications of the US lifting sanctions on Belarus's "Belavia" and potential renewed diplomatic ties with Belarus (Colonelcassad, ТАСС)? How does this impact Belarusian alignment with RF and the security situation on Ukraine's northern border?
• CRITICAL: What is the BDA and precise location of the M-198 towed howitzer reportedly destroyed by a Lancet drone from the RF 305th Guards Artillery Brigade on the South Donetsk direction (Colonelcassad)? What is the operational impact on UAF artillery support in that sector?
• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA of the battlefield destruction and casualties shown in the БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video, and what specific RF units and engagements are depicted? What is the intelligence value of the "statistics related to 'sent home' or destroyed enemy combatants" presented?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific intelligence value of the "Leopard-1 tank" identified in the Операция Z video, including its operational status and exact location of engagement? What are the capabilities and current operational status of the "BABA-YAGA" drone mentioned?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific impact of the alleged UAF attack on the ZNPP training center (TASS)? What specific UAF units are accused, and what evidence supports the claim?
• CRITICAL: What are the specific security provisions and timeline for Rheinmetall's deployment of shell production in a safe region of Ukraine (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)? What type and volume of shells will be produced, and what is the expected impact on UAF ammunition sustainment?
• CRITICAL: What is the military significance of the "makeshift buggy-like vehicles" and ATV shown in the АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video? Are these modified civilian vehicles for military use, or specific military platforms? What units are operating them, and where were they observed?
• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA and assessment of the UAF drone attacks and subsequent fire in Smolensk, Russia (Оперативний ЗСУ, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, РБК-Україна, Операция Z)? What specific targets (e.g., gas station, military facilities) were hit, what weapons were used, and what is the estimated damage and operational impact?
• CRITICAL: What is the BDA and specific details of the RF strikes on trenches, command post, and communications tower on the Rubtsovsk direction, as shown in Colonelcassad's video? What is the operational impact on RF forces?
• CRITICAL: What is the BDA of the RF counter-actions against UAF attempts to regain Udachnoye, as shown in Colonelcassad's videos? What UAF units were involved, and what were the losses?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific type of ballistic missile has been launched from the north, and what is its intended target?
• CRITICAL: What is the precise origin, trajectory, and intended targets of the enemy UAVs heading towards Zaporizhzhia city from the east? What UAF air defense assets are currently tracking them?
• CRITICAL: What is the exact content and messaging of the "Zelenskyy Statement on Poland Drones" as relayed by RF milbloggers, and how does it compare to official UAF statements?
• CRITICAL: What is the immediate and long-term impact of Poland's complete border closure with Belarus on RF/Belarusian logistics, trade, and regional stability?
• CRITICAL: What is the current operational status of the "Pyatnashka" International Brigade, their specific areas of operation, and their recent combat effectiveness, based on the personal testimony of "Gefest"? What actionable intelligence can be extracted from his experience and unit details?
• CRITICAL: What is the immediate impact of the tightening of charges against Timur Ivanov, former Deputy Head of the RF Ministry of Defense? What specific allegations are being made, and what are the implications for RF leadership and internal stability?
• CRITICAL: What is the overall BDA and impact of the observed Belarusian border reinforcement activities (razor wire obstacles) near the Polish border? What specific RF or Belarusian units are involved, and what is their intent?
• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA and operational impact of the reported explosions in Tosno, Leningrad Oblast? What specific targets were hit, and what UAF assets were responsible?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific military significance of the restrictions imposed at the airports of Ivanovo, Pskov, Yaroslavl, and St. Petersburg overnight? Are these linked to UAF deep strikes or internal RF security incidents, and what assets/operations are affected?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific target and BDA of the allegedly destroyed ammunition depot in occupied Luhansk, and what UAF assets were responsible for this strike?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific target and BDA of the explosion reported in Sumy? What type of weapon was used, and what is the immediate impact?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the full BDA of the UAF drone strike on RF personnel in the Підрозділ Shadow video? Can the specific RF unit be identified, and what is the estimated impact on their local combat effectiveness?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the operational impact of the reported destruction of ~30% of UAF vehicles in DPR rear areas since early September (TASS)? What specific types of vehicles were targeted, and what is the estimated impact on UAF logistics and maneuverability in the region?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the immediate and long-term implication of Japan removing Karina Rotenberg from its sanctions list? Is this indicative of a broader shift in sanctions policy by Japan or its allies, and how does it impact the overall economic pressure on RF?
• CRITICAL (NEW): What is the verifiable BDA and source for the claim of 80% destruction of UAF assault groups near Andriyivka, Sumy Oblast (TASS)? What UAF units were involved, and what is the overall impact on UAF offensive capabilities in the Sumy region?
• HIGH: What is the specific BDA of the drone footage of the Romanian APR-40 MLRS being hit in Baranovka, Kharkiv Oblast (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)? What is the operational impact on UAF artillery support in the region?
• HIGH: What is the specific BDA and the full impact of the RF assault groups using the "Potok" ("Kursk pipe") method for infiltration on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, as shown in "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video? What are the defensive countermeasures required for such subterranean/culvert-based movements?
• HIGH: What is the specific BDA and the full impact of the RF drone-on-drone combat near Prykolotne, Kharkiv Oblast, as reported by Старше Эдды, Kotsnews, and Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition? What are the capabilities of the UAF interceptor drone, and how effective is it against RF kamikaze drones like "Upyr"?
• HIGH: What are NATO's specific military Rules of Engagement (ROE) and force posture changes following the Article 4 consultation regarding future RF incursions? What are RF's strategic red lines for a direct NATO military response?
• HIGH: What is the strength, composition, and immediate objective of RF second-echelon forces positioned to exploit the Pokrovsk breakthrough?
• HIGH: What is the exact damage assessment and long-term operational impact of the HUR strike on the RF Black Sea Fleet Project MPSV07 vessel near Novorossiysk? How long will repairs take, and how does this affect RF maritime operations in the Black Sea?
• HIGH: What is the full BDA and specific targets of the new enemy UAV groups entering southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast from TOT, heading north/northwest, as reported by UAF Air Force?
• HIGH: What are the specific implications of the Hungarian Foreign Minister's accusations against Kyiv regarding worsening relations between the two countries (РБК-Україна, Операция Z)? How does this impact Ukraine's diplomatic standing and international support?
• HIGH: What is the specific content and strategic implication of the Slovakian Foreign Minister's "cynical statement" on drones in Poland, and Ukraine's reaction to it (РБК-Україна)? How does this impact EU unity and support for Ukraine?
• HIGH: What is the full BDA of the UAF 'Lazar' unit's destruction of the bridge near Nova Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, Russia (Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)? What specific RF logistical routes or assets were impacted, and for how long?
• HIGH: What is the specific composition and disposition of RF forces operating in the Polohy Raion that led to the civilian casualty event (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)?
• HIGH: What is the current operational status of the RF 'Vega' unit operating in the Kotsnews video? What are their specific ISR and targeting capabilities and areas of operation? Are the damaged RF vehicles depicted directly from their operations, or are they archival?
• HIGH: What is the specific composition, equipment, and command structure of the "West-AHMAT" battalion and the 128th Brigade operating in Vovchansk (Kadyrov_95)? What is their operational focus and demonstrated capabilities against UAF positions?
• HIGH: What is the BDA and current UAF posture in Katerynivka, Kleban-Byk, and Pleshcheyevka, following RF claims of "expelling the enemy" and advancing in the Konstantinovka direction (Colonelcassad)?
• HIGH: What is the specific intelligence value of the "Pleasant and meditative selection of FPV ambushes on enemy vehicles and manpower" video shared by Оперативний ЗСУ regarding RF vehicle types, personnel movements, and vulnerabilities to FPV drone attacks?
• HIGH: What is the impact of the increased salary indexation for RF military personnel (ТАСС) on RF morale, recruitment, and retention?
• HIGH: What is the specific BDA of the destroyed military vehicle with the "Z" symbol in the Kotsnews "Evening Bell" photo message? What type of vehicle was it, and where and when was it destroyed?
• HIGH: What is the current operational status and mission of the RF reconnaissance UAV reported in central Chernihiv Oblast (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)?
• HIGH: What is the full context and BDA of the 6 individuals injured in Belgorod Oblast attacks, and what specific UAF units are implicated in the attack on the Pyaterochka supermarket (ASTRA)? What were the weapons used?
• HIGH: What is the full context and strategic implication of the discussions by Leonid Slutsky (ТАСС) comparing the Polish drone situation to MH-17 and Skripal cases? What specific disinformation narratives is RF seeking to establish?
• HIGH: What is the intelligence value of the D-30 122mm howitzer position and artillery barrage shown in the ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video? Can the targets of these strikes be identified?
• HIGH: What is the intelligence value of the "Night Russokiller" drone operation by the 4th BOp "Freedom Force" of the NGU "Rubizh" (Оперативний ЗСУ), including the specific RF targets and BDA of the "15 pig-snouted scum"?
• HIGH: What is the specific intelligence value of the captured "Shark" reconnaissance drone (Colonelcassad), including any technical insights that can be gleaned from its components or design? What RF "Fever" fighters are claimed to have destroyed it?
• HIGH: What is the full context and strategic implication of The Financial Times report cited by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, suggesting Putin is "delighted" by the Polish drone incident and may "go further"? What specific "further" actions are anticipated?
• HIGH: What is the specific BDA and target identification from the thermal imaging drone video from the Kharkiv direction (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)? What RF military positions and vehicles were targeted by UAF artillery?
• HIGH: What is the current disposition and combat effectiveness of RF forces on the Borovskoe direction (Colonelcassad)? What UAF units are currently facing them, and what is the immediate threat posed by RF advances in this sector?
• HIGH: What is the current threat perception in Slovakia regarding the war in Ukraine and Hungarian PM Orban's stance, leading to discussions about mandatory military service (РБК-Україна)? How does this impact NATO cohesion and potential support for Ukraine?
• HIGH: What are the specific concerns and operational impacts of the reported change in US aid policy, as reported by "Военкоры Русской Весны" (Операция Z)? How does this sentiment affect UAF morale and operational planning?
• HIGH: What were the key discussion points and outcomes of President Zelenskyy's meeting with US Special Representative General Keith Kellogg (Zelenskiy / Official, Оперативний ЗСУ, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)? What specific commitments or agreements were made regarding military aid or diplomatic support?
• HIGH: What is the specific impact of the deployment of three Rafale fighters by France to NATO's eastern flank (ТАСС)? How does this bolster regional air defense, and what are the implications for RF hybrid operations?
• HIGH: What are the key elements of the "Accidents and Non-Accidents" analysis by Рыбарь, and what specific narratives is RF attempting to promote regarding the Polish drone incident and other events?
• HIGH: What is the current disposition of UAF forces in the Serebryansk direction (ТАСС, Мирошник)? Are there any UAF units that have received or are suspected of receiving orders to shoot at civilians, and what evidence supports this RF claim?
• HIGH: What is the specific intelligence value or BDA from the Shahed drone debris found in Odesa (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)? Can any new technical insights be gleaned from the recovered parts, particularly regarding the extended fuel tanks?
• HIGH: What is the specific BDA and the operational impact of the UAF kamikaze drone strike clearing the roadblock with three FPV "waiting drones" (Оперативний ЗСУ)? What specific RF units or assets were targeted/destroyed?
• HIGH: What is the specific content and strategic implications of Lukashenko's statements thanking Trump for "peace efforts" and pardoning foreign citizens, as reported by Alex Parker Returns? How does this impact the US-Belarus-Russia dynamic?
• HIGH: What is the military significance of the photo message from Alex Parker Returns stating "musical schools in Ukraine to hide their pianos," and does this indicate a specific new RF targeting policy or a general PSYOP to spread fear?
• HIGH: What is the specific content of the combat summary from Сливочный каприз (Sept 7-10), and are there any discernible new RF tactical patterns or BDA from this report?
• HIGH: What is the confirmed BDA for the Ukrainian "Yozhka" drone reportedly shot down near Lyman (WarGonzo)? What are its capabilities, and what was its mission?
• HIGH: What is the context and origin of the video shared by АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА showing damaged vehicles in Primorsky, and is it related to recent military engagements?
• HIGH: What is the specific nature of the internal "sabotage" reported in Germany by Два майора? Is there any evidence linking it to the conflict?
• HIGH: What are the "real reasons" for Russian drones "falling" in Poland, as claimed by "Два майора"? What specific disinformation narratives is RF preparing to disseminate to explain the incursions?
• HIGH: What is the specific content of the combat summary from Сливочный каприз (Sept 7-10), and are there any discernible new RF tactical patterns or BDA from this report?
• HIGH: What is the specific operational context and BDA from the video shared by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS showing RF strikes on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast?
• HIGH: What is the full context and strategic implication of the dialogue between Orban and Zelenskyy, as reported by РБК-Україна, particularly in light of previous Hungarian accusations against Kyiv?
• HIGH: What is the full context and strategic implication of the Alex Parker Returns photo message about a political prisoner refusing to leave Belarus after being pardoned at Trump's request? How does this impact perceptions of Belarusian political prisoners and the US-Belarus relationship?
• HIGH: What are the implications of the reported attack by a UOC priest on military commissars in Cherkasy (Alex Parker Returns) for UAF mobilization efforts, internal security, and RF information operations targeting religious divisions?
• HIGH: What is the specific content of the "ALERT" issued by 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦? Is it an air raid alert, weather warning, or something else that directly impacts military operations?
• HIGH: What is the operational significance of the strike on a "Navoz" (Azov) deployment point in the Sloviansk direction (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)? What unit was targeted and what BDA was achieved?
• HIGH: What is the immediate and long-term impact of the Russian Central Bank raising the dollar exchange rate above ₽85 (ASTRA) on RF's war economy and ability to sustain military operations?
• HIGH: What is the full BDA and current UAF posture in Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)? What RF units were involved in the fighting, and what is the current UAF defensive posture there?
• HIGH: What are the implications of the alleged FPV drone attack by Ukrainian terrorists on a civilian vehicle in Bryansk Oblast (AV БогомаZ)? What is the BDA and what UAF units are implicated?
• HIGH: What is the specific tactical situation in Konstyantynivka - Nelepovka (Сливочный каприз)? What forces are engaged, and what are the immediate objectives?
• HIGH: What is the intelligence value of the celebratory message from НгП раZVедка, and what specific RF success is it likely referencing (Confidence: MEDIUM)?
• HIGH: What is the intelligence value of the UAZ "Bukhanka" vehicle being prepared for the 135th Assault Battalion of the "Vostok" Group of Forces (Colonelcassad)? What does this tell us about RF logistical support and unit capabilities?
• HIGH: What is the specific implications of the Sikorski quote that Putin is mocking Trump (РБК-Україна)? How does this align with current UAF IO goals?
• HIGH: What is the specific BDA of the successful strikes and their adjustment against enemy artillery and personnel in Kursk Oblast by 'UA_reg' special forces (Оперативний ЗСУ)? What RF units and equipment were targeted?
• HIGH: What is the military significance of the video shared by Colonelcassad showing a burning car on a dirt road, and what unit was operating the FPV drone? What is the BDA?
• HIGH: What is the specific tactical situation and BDA from the video shared by Colonelcassad showing a unit operating near an enemy strongpoint on the Donetsk direction? What RF units are involved and what is their immediate objective?
• HIGH: What is the specific content and military significance of the second case against former Deputy Head of the Ministry of Defense, Timur Ivanov, and the tightened charges against him? What implications does this have for RF internal stability or military operations?
• HIGH: What is the immediate impact and BDA of the enemy strike UAVs detected in the Kakhovka region (Kherson Oblast) moving towards Mykolaiv Oblast? What UAF air defense assets are in place, and what are the potential targets?
• HIGH: What is the specific nature and capabilities of the "reactive drones" now reportedly used by UAF, as mentioned by "Архангел Спецназа"? What is their operational impact?
• HIGH: What are the specific reasons for the imposed flight restrictions at Kaluga airport? Is this a direct result of the Smolensk incident, or a separate security measure?
• HIGH: What is the significance of the alleged explosion in Smolensk being claimed as "not Smolensk" by pro-Ukrainian sources? Is this a genuine misidentification, or an RF disinformation attempt to downplay the impact of a strike on RF territory?
• HIGH: What is the full content and context of the "discussion about the war duration" from Alex Parker Returns? Are there any specific details or narratives that offer actionable intelligence?
• HIGH: What are the specific details and technical aspects of the anti-drone systems that Poland and Ukraine will cooperate on developing? What is the timeline for this cooperation?
• HIGH: What is the specific nature of the "provocation" by Ukraine that Swiss politician Guy Mettan (TASS) refers to regarding the Poland drone incident? What evidence is cited to support this claim?
• HIGH: What specific entities or industries within China and India would be affected by the proposed US tariff increases, and what potential geopolitical or economic fallout could this entail for the broader conflict?
• HIGH: What is the specific impact of the destruction of five UAVs near Moscow by RF air defense? Were these UAF drones? What types of drones were they, and what were their intended targets?
• HIGH: What is the specific BDA of the reported hit on a UAF temporary deployment point (ПВД) in Sumy Oblast by "Молния-2" UAVs from Tula paratroopers (Colonelcassad)? What UAF unit was affected, and what were the losses?
• HIGH: What is the specific nature of the air threat over the southwestern part of Leningrad Oblast, leading to air defense activity and the "Carpet" plan at Pulkovo airport (TASS)? Is this a UAF drone incursion or another incident?
• HIGH: What is the specific type of drones approaching Kharkiv from the east, what is their trajectory, and what are their likely targets? What UAF air defense assets are currently tracking them?
• HIGH: What is the current disposition and effectiveness of RF air defense systems in Leningrad Oblast, particularly in the Tosno and Pushkin districts, in light of the reported UAV activity?
• HIGH: What is the verified BDA and full context of the reported Ukrainian fighter jet missile falling on a residential building in Western Ukraine? Is this an accidental discharge, a malfunction, or a deliberate action, and what are the implications for UAF air safety and RF IO?
• HIGH: What is the specific mission, trajectory, and potential targets of the enemy UAV detected in Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorod and Bucha districts), and what UAF air defense assets are currently tracking it?
• HIGH: What is the full BDA and context of the RF FPV drone strike on UAF personnel (Colonelcassad)? Can the specific RF unit be identified, and what is the estimated impact on UAF local combat effectiveness?
• HIGH: What is the BDA and estimated operational impact of the UAF drone attack on Rostov Oblast (TASS)? What specific targets were hit, and what type of UAVs were used?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the specific target and BDA from the RF drone footage (Операция Z) showing engagement of Ukrainian military positions/vehicles on the Zaporizhzhia front? Can the specific UAF units or vehicle types be identified?
• HIGH (NEW): What is the precise damage assessment and operational impact of the drone strikes on the non-residential building in Sumy (РБК-Україна)? Are there any secondary explosions or indicators of military targets nearby?
• MEDIUM (NEW): What is the operational significance of the partial restriction of registration for domestic flights at Pulkovo airport (TASS)? Is this a direct response to a specific threat, a general security measure, or an indicator of broader issues?
• LOW (NEW): What are the specific details and implications of Japan exempting Sakhalin-2 oil from price caps (TASS)? How does this impact Japan's energy security and its broader economic policy towards Russia?

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (Confidence: HIGH)

• Capabilities:

  • Sustained Ground Offensive with Massed Forces & Expanded Scope: RF demonstrates the capability for sustained, multi-axis ground offensives, achieving localized breakthroughs (Pokrovsk, Siversk, Lyman, Konstantinovka), urban combat, and deploying new robotic systems ('Kur'er'). Confirmed capability for new advances and "liberation" in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Sosnovka), a significant expansion of operational scope, with objectives to encircle UAF forces. Rosgvardia has been armed with tank/anti-tank guns, SPGs, and MLRS, enhancing RF's ground combat capability. RF has specialized armored units ("Terminator") and a T-90M Proryv tank capability against UAF UAV command posts. RF is proficient in FPV drone operations for close-quarters combat and strikes on urban positions. RF units can conduct integrated ISR and direct engagement on multiple fronts (e.g., South Donetsk). RF is capable of managing combat casualties and maintaining medical support. RF is also employing non-standard vehicles (buggies, ATVs) for tactical purposes. RF airborne units can conduct offensive actions. NEW: RF claims to have destroyed 221 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions, demonstrating enhanced homeland air defense capabilities against mass drone attacks. NEW: RF demonstrates capability to conduct large-scale, multi-domain military training through the "West-2025" exercises.
  • Ballistic Missile Strike Capability (North): RF has the capability to conduct long-range precision strikes from the north. NEW: RF has established a ballistic missile launch capability from Kursk Oblast.
  • Drone Swarm Capability (Zaporizhzhia): RF maintains the capability to conduct persistent drone attacks, potentially in coordinated swarms, against key urban centers.
  • Adaptive FPV Drone Operations: RF is increasingly employing FPV drones for specialized tactical roles, demonstrating effective targeting against high-value assets and personnel.
  • Persistent IO and Cyber Operations (Highly Adaptive): RF maintains a robust capability for multi-layered information warfare, including rapid adaptation to new narratives, highly inflammatory accusations, and efforts to sow discord. RF is capable of immediate and coordinated IO, generating and disseminating narratives of Western weakness, exploiting US internal events, and attempting to discredit Western media. RF conducts internal IO to reinforce domestic support and justify the conflict, including youth indoctrination.
  • Overwhelming Long-Range Strike & Air Presence (Escalated Volume): RF maintains overwhelming long-range strike capability (Iskander-K, Shaheds, KABs, cruise missiles), capable of massed, multi-platform, and precision strikes against critical DIB, energy, and national C2 infrastructure.
  • Homeland Air Defense: RF demonstrates capability to defend its capital and critical infrastructure against aerial threats. NEW: RF has successfully repelled over 30 UAVs in Rostov Oblast and destroyed over 30 UAVs in Leningrad Oblast, demonstrating robust air defense against mass deep strikes. RF is also capable of rapid response and damage mitigation at critical naval infrastructure, as demonstrated at Primorsk port.

• Intentions:

  • Achieve Decisive Breakthrough on Pokrovsk Axis and Expand Dnipropetrovsk Offensive: RF's primary intent is to exploit current breakthroughs to gain significant operational depth on the Pokrovsk axis and to consolidate and expand the new salient at Sosnovka, threatening Velykomykhailivka. RF intends to maintain pressure on urban areas (e.g., Vovchansk, Chasiv Yar) and degrade UAF artillery.
  • Degrade Ukrainian Winter Resilience & Overwhelm Air Defenses: RF intends to continue systematic mass strikes against Ukrainian DIB, energy, industrial, and logistical infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's ability to sustain operations through winter and to saturate/overwhelm UAF air defenses. This includes persistent ballistic missile and drone pressure.
  • Undermine Western Support and Ukrainian Morale: RF will continue aggressive information operations to discredit UAF, sow distrust, amplify internal challenges, and exploit any perceived cracks in Western unity. This includes leveraging diplomatic incidents and internal US political events.
  • Sustained Probing of NATO Air Defenses with Hybrid Warfare Elements: RF intends to continue launching UAVs into or towards NATO member states' airspace to test response thresholds and sow discord, escalating hybrid actions based on perceived successes. This is further reinforced by the "West-2025" exercises.
  • Maintain Internal Stability and Project Strength: RF will continue internal propaganda to maintain domestic stability, projecting military strength, accountability, and normalcy. This includes promoting military successes and leveraging major exercises for internal morale.
  • Leverage Diplomatic Openings: RF intends to exploit any perceived cracks in Western unity or new diplomatic initiatives to improve its international standing or secure concessions, including by leveraging sanctions relief and economic relations.

• Courses of Action (COA):

  • MLCOA 1 (Ground Offensive Reinforcement): RF will continue to reinforce offensive efforts on the Pokrovsk axis and actively consolidate/expand the new salient in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, aiming for the encirclement of Velykomykhailivka. Secondary efforts will target Lyman, Konstantinovka, and Vovchansk. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • MLCOA 2 (Sustained Air/Missile Campaign): RF will launch multi-wave UAV attacks (50-100 drones) and guided aerial bomb (KAB) strikes targeting Ukrainian DIB, energy, and logistics, with continued ballistic missile threats from the north and Kursk Oblast. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • MLCOA 3 (Escalated Hybrid Operations/IO): RF will continue to probe NATO airspace with UAVs, while simultaneously engaging in a robust IO campaign to deny responsibility, blame Ukraine, and amplify perceived NATO disunity. RF will leverage the "West-2025" exercises for a show of force and internal propaganda. (Confidence: HIGH)

2.2. Recent tactical changes or adaptations (Confidence: HIGH)

• Expanded Offensive Zones: RF is demonstrating an expanded scope of ground operations, with new claims of advances in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Sosnovka), a significant shift from traditional axes. This indicates an adaptation to probe new areas or divert UAF resources. New offensive directions are observed on the Rubtsovsk axis.
• Enhanced Tactical Air Defense: RF is adapting its short-range air defense to protect offensive axes and is improving counter-UAV capabilities through modernized systems and drone-on-drone combat. RF is also using armored vehicles for counter-UAV C2 strikes. RF homeland air defense is demonstrating reactive and intensified responses to deep strikes (e.g., Moscow, Leningrad, Rostov).
• Expanded Role for Internal Security Forces: Rosgvardia has been armed with tank/anti-tank guns, SPGs, and MLRS, and has executed over 60,000 fire missions, integrating these internal security forces into direct combat operations.
• Persistent Urban Combat Focus: RF continues to adapt to protracted, high-intensity urban warfare in areas like Pokrovsk and Vovchansk, employing specialized units and FPV drones.
• Increased Depth of Hybrid Operations into NATO: The deliberate, large-scale drone incursions into Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania demonstrate an adaptation in RF's hybrid warfare, testing NATO's response thresholds with greater audacity. This has led to reactive airspace and border closures by NATO members.
• Youth Military Indoctrination: RF is integrating military training and patriotic education at a young age to prepare a future cadre of soldiers.
• NEW: RF is adapting to intense, attritional combat, as evidenced by battlefield destruction and casualties.
• NEW: RF is showing adaptive use of FPV drones as primary means of inflicting casualties against exposed infantry and small groups.
• NEW: RF has adapted to robust defensive postures and counter-fire tactics in border areas (e.g., Sumy Oblast).
• NEW: RF demonstrates an adapted tactical approach to integrated ISR and direct engagement on the South Donetsk direction.
• NEW: RF is adapting to implement heightened defensive measures against aerial threats within its territory and managing civilian airspace in response to threats.
• NEW: RF demonstrates a significant tactical adaptation for large-scale combined arms training through the "West-2025" exercises.

2.3. Logistics and sustainment status (Confidence: MEDIUM)

RF continues to demonstrate the ability to sustain multi-axis ground offensives and massed air attacks, suggesting sufficient, albeit strained, logistical capacity. The new Dnipropetrovsk salient will place additional demands. The call for drone donations from "Два майора" indicates a potential shortfall in organic drone supply for some units. High consumption of artillery ammunition by Rosgvardia requires robust logistical support. UAF's successful destruction of a bridge near Nova Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, represents a localized logistical disruption for RF. The re-opening of Krasnodar airport may improve civilian logistics, with indirect implications for military flow. Civilian/volunteer support for specific RF ground units (e.g., 135th Assault Battalion) indicates reliance on non-state supply chains. The Russian Central Bank raising the dollar exchange rate above ₽85 could indicate growing economic strain, impacting long-term sustainment. RF claims over half of UAF-supplied drones are defective, an IO narrative that also highlights the critical nature of drone logistics.

• NEW: The drone attack on Primorsk port, causing a fire on a vessel, represents a significant localized disruption to RF naval and energy logistics.
• NEW: Over 30 flights cancelled/delayed at Pulkovo Airport indicate continued disruption to civilian air travel in Northwestern Russia, suggesting broader logistical impact due to security concerns.
• NEW: The "West-2025" exercises will place significant logistical demands on both RF and Belarusian forces, potentially straining existing supply chains for fuel, ammunition, and other consumables.

2.4. Command and control effectiveness (Confidence: HIGH)

RF Command and Control (C2) demonstrates high effectiveness in coordinating multi-domain operations. This includes multi-domain synchronization of air attacks, ground offensives, and hybrid operations. RF C2 shows adaptive targeting capabilities, rapidly prioritizing high-value targets (e.g., UAF UAV command posts, critical infrastructure). Ground C2 is effective for offensive, defensive, and counter-offensive actions (e.g., Rubtsovsk, Udachnoye). Tactical C2 is effective in directing drone assets for reconnaissance and precision strikes. Information Warfare (IO) is highly integrated into strategic and operational C2, allowing for rapid exploitation of events for propaganda and disinformation. RF C2 is effective in managing internal political processes and using them for IO. Emerging drone C2 capabilities are evident with special UAV detachments and control centers. RF also demonstrates decentralized tactical initiative under overall strategic guidance.

• NEW: Robust homeland air defense C2 is evident in the successful repulsion of mass drone attacks over Rostov and Leningrad Oblasts.
• NEW: Rapid response naval port C2 was demonstrated in extinguishing the fire at Primorsk port.
• NEW: RF C2 is effective in planning, coordinating, and executing complex military maneuvers across multiple domains and geographical areas, as seen in the "West-2025" exercises.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian force posture and readiness (Confidence: HIGH)

UAF maintains a resilient defensive posture, successfully repelling 130 RF attacks across all major axes in the last 24 hours. UAF drone operators are demonstrating tactical effectiveness against RF personnel, vehicles, and logistics. Ukrainian air defenses achieved a 94% interception rate (62 of 66 UAVs) against a significant RF air attack. UAF continues to demonstrate asymmetric warfare capabilities through resistance movements like "ATESH" and successful deep strikes on RF territory and naval assets (e.g., Project MPSV07 vessel, Smolensk oil depot, Luhansk ammunition depot, Primorsk port vessel). UAF is actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to enhance international cooperation and air defense capabilities, including sharing expertise on countering Shaheds and training Polish military personnel on drone interception. UAF is committed to internal transparency and anti-corruption efforts. Morale is boosted by public solidarity, recognition of valor ("Man in the Military" award), and official support for POW families. Rheinmetall's planned shell production in Ukraine significantly enhances long-term readiness. High-level US, Danish, Finnish, and Estonian diplomatic engagement confirms strong international support. UAF is also focused on protecting civilian life through initiatives like underground schools in Vilnyansk. UAF General Staff reports 890 RF combat losses over the last 24 hours.

3.2. Recent tactical successes or setbacks (Confidence: HIGH)

• Successes:

  • High interception rate (94%) against RF UAV attack (62/66).
  • Successful repulsion of 130 RF attacks across multiple axes.
  • Effective drone operations by UAF units against RF personnel and equipment.
  • Successful HUR strike on an RF Black Sea Fleet Project MPSV07 vessel, disabling a key support asset.
  • Successful destruction of a bridge near Nova Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, disrupting RF logistics.
  • US Congress approved $400 million in military aid, and Sweden committed $836M (20th package) and $4.276B annually for 2026-2027.
  • Effective counter-offensive drone operations against RF mechanized advances in Kostiantynivka direction.
  • UAF special forces destroyed an RF BMD-3 in the Zaporizhzhia direction and conducted successful strikes against RF artillery/personnel in Kursk Oblast.
  • Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania closed border airspace, and Poland closed all border crossings with Belarus, demonstrating a coordinated NATO response to RF hybrid operations.
  • Deployment of Rafale and Eurofighter jets by Britain and France to NATO's eastern flank.
  • Successful deep strikes into RF territory (Smolensk oil depot, Luhansk ammunition depot, Primorsk port vessel, Leningrad Oblast UAV incursions).
  • UAF recognition of EW personnel day highlights commitment to critical capabilities.
  • NEW: UAF General Staff reports 890 RF personnel eliminated over the past 24 hours, a significant operational success.

• Setbacks:

  • RF exploitation of the Pokrovsk breakthrough, leading to urban combat within Pokrovsk city limits.
  • Continued significant damage to DIB, energy, and civilian infrastructure from RF deep strikes.
  • Civilian casualties from RF attacks remain high, with 1 civilian killed in Polohy Raion.
  • RF's "liberation" of Sosnovka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, represents a significant territorial setback for UAF and a new threat of encirclement to Velykomykhailivka.
  • The loss of UAF Major Oleksandr Borovyk and a Su-27 aircraft in Zaporizhzhia direction is a critical operational setback, impacting air defense and offensive air capabilities.
  • Localized territorial loss with RF claims of controlling 50% of Pereyizne (Siversk direction).
  • Persistent diplomatic friction with Hungary and Slovakia due to political statements, indicating challenges in maintaining international unity.
  • RF claims of destroying a UAF UAV control point and communication antenna in Konstantinovka direction, if verified, represents a setback for UAF drone operations and C2.
  • RF FPV drone ambushes are successfully targeting UAF transport in Kharkiv Oblast.
  • RF UAV operators are disrupting UAF rotations in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • The missile incident in Western Ukraine (Ukrainian fighter jet missile falling on a residential building), if confirmed as UAF, represents a significant operational and IO setback.
  • NEW: Persistent air threats and multiple explosions in Sumy indicate continued challenges for civilian protection and defense.
  • NEW: RF claims of destroying ~30% of UAF vehicles in DPR rear areas represents a significant logistical setback.
  • NEW: RF claims of up to 80% destruction of UAF assault groups near Andriyivka, Sumy Oblast, if accurate, represents a severe tactical setback in personnel and offensive capacity.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

• Propaganda and disinformation campaigns:

  • RF Narratives (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF continues to push aggressive, multi-layered propaganda. Key narratives include: portraying UAF as targeting civilian infrastructure (e.g., ZNPP training center, Sumy non-residential building, Polohy Raion, Belgorod civilian casualties, Western Ukraine missile incident); blaming Ukraine for attacks on RF territory (e.g., Belgorod, Bryansk, and now Leningrad Oblast, Rostov Oblast, Smolensk); denying responsibility for NATO airspace violations (e.g., Polish drone incident) while amplifying Trump's "could be a mistake" statement; framing NATO's response as escalatory (e.g., Poland's troop deployment, Rafale/Eurofighter deployment); dismissing Western support as ineffective; exploiting internal Western political issues (e.g., US internal divisions, Charlie Kirk murder, alleged LGBT/Antifa links to the weapon); and sowing discord (e.g., between Poland/Ukraine, critical of NATO's response). RF milbloggers are key amplifiers, mocking NATO's "slow" response to drone incursions and amplifying perceived Western disunity (e.g., Slovak FM statements). Lavrov's statement blaming the US for arming Ukraine is a core RF narrative. RF is leveraging the "West-2025" exercises to project military strength and unity. RF is conducting internal IO to boost morale (e.g., increased military salaries, celebrating educational work bodies, using children in propaganda). RF denies the existence or location of successful UAF deep strikes (e.g., Smolensk). RF claims UAF units on the Serebryansk direction received direct orders to shoot at civilians. RF seeks to control historical narratives (e.g., Mannerheim). RF frames Japan's sanctions as aggressive economic warfare.
  • UAF Counter-Narratives (HIGH CONFIDENCE): UAF and allied media are countering RF narratives by: highlighting successful UAF operations (e.g., HUR naval strike, bridge destruction, drone interceptions, RF personnel losses); emphasizing continued international support (e.g., US aid, Swedish aid, Rheinmetall production, high-level diplomatic meetings); exposing RF lies and disinformation (e.g., challenging Smolensk location, countering false claims about UAF drones); bolstering domestic and military morale (e.g., recognizing EW personnel, support for POW families, public solidarity, commemorating liberations); framing RF actions as deliberate hybrid warfare (e.g., Zelenskyy on Polish drones); and emphasizing the human cost of the war due to RF aggression. UAF is actively engaging in diplomatic efforts to maintain and strengthen alliances and counter divisive narratives from Hungary and Slovakia.

• Public sentiment and morale factors:

  • Ukraine (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Public sentiment remains generally resilient, bolstered by military successes (HUR naval strike, successful drone interceptions, RF personnel losses) and continued international support. However, sustained RF deep strikes on civilian infrastructure (Sumy, Kramatorsk, Dnipropetrovsk) and high civilian casualties (Yarova, Polohy Raion) will put pressure on civilian morale. The loss of UAF Major Borovyk and the Su-27 is a blow to military morale but will likely be framed heroically. Continued efforts to support POW families and recognize military valor are critical for sustaining morale.
  • Russia (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): RF public sentiment is largely controlled by state propaganda, which projects military strength, internal stability, and blames Ukraine/West for conflict. Increases in military salaries aim to boost morale and retention. However, RF drone attacks and claims of destruction of UAF vehicles aim to show effectiveness. Unverified reports of neglected soldiers' graves (БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС) could pose a challenge to morale if widely disseminated internally. Economic strains (e.g., ruble depreciation, market volatility) could indirectly impact public sentiment. Regional and local elections will be used to project stability.
  • International (HIGH CONFIDENCE): International support for Ukraine remains strong, evidenced by continued military and financial aid, and diplomatic engagements. NATO's coordinated response to RF airspace incursions (Poland, Latvia, Lithuania border closures, fighter jet deployments) demonstrates resolve, although the crisis also reveals potential for diplomatic friction among allies (e.g., Hungary, Slovakia). Japanese sanctions indicate continued international pressure on RF.

• International support and diplomatic developments:

  • Support for Ukraine (HIGH CONFIDENCE): US approved $400 million in military aid. Sweden provided its 20th package ($836M) and committed $4.276B annually for 2026-2027. Rheinmetall will deploy shell production in Ukraine. High-level diplomatic engagement continues with US Special Representative General Keith Kellogg, Danish, Finnish, and Estonian officials. Poland and Ukraine will cooperate on anti-drone systems. Britain and France offered to send Rafale/Eurofighter jets to Poland. Japan imposed sanctions on RF and its allies and lowered the price cap on Russian oil.
  • Pressure on RF (HIGH CONFIDENCE): EU condemnation of RF airspace violations and calls for increased sanctions. Poland's full border closure with Belarus. NATO's coordinated air defense response in the Baltic states. Japan's sanctions and oil price cap reduction.
  • Challenges/Neutral (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Hungarian FM Szijjártó's accusations against Kyiv for worsening relations. Slovakian FM's "cynical statement" on Polish drones (as perceived by Ukraine). Lukashenko's release of 52 political prisoners, including Polish and Belarusian individuals, following US engagement, creates a complex diplomatic dynamic. Japan exempted Sakhalin-2 oil from price caps.
  • NEW: The start of "West-2025" exercises between RF and Belarus.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most likely enemy courses of action (MLCOA)

• MLCOA 1 (Ground Offensive Reinforcement and Consolidation): RF will intensify ground offensives on the Pokrovsk axis, attempting to clear UAF from urban areas of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). Simultaneously, RF will commit significant forces to consolidate and expand the new salient in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Sosnovka area), aiming to complete the encirclement of Velykomykhailivka. High-tempo probing attacks will continue on the Lyman, Kupyansk, and South Donetsk axes to fix UAF reserves and prevent redeployments. (Confidence: HIGH)
• MLCOA 2 (Sustained Air/Missile Campaign Targeting Critical Infrastructure): RF will conduct multiple waves of UAV strikes (50-100 drones per wave) and widespread guided aerial bomb (KAB) attacks, prioritizing Ukrainian energy, industrial, and logistical infrastructure, with continued ballistic missile threats from the north and Kursk Oblast, to degrade Ukraine's winter resilience and overwhelm air defenses. (Confidence: HIGH)
• MLCOA 3 (Escalated Hybrid Operations and Information Warfare): RF will continue to probe NATO airspace with smaller, coordinated groups of UAVs to test response thresholds and identify vulnerabilities. This will be accompanied by an aggressive, multi-layered information campaign to deny responsibility for incursions, blame Ukraine or Western special services, mock NATO's response, and amplify perceived disunity within the alliance, especially leveraging the "West-2025" exercises for strategic messaging. (Confidence: HIGH)

5.2. Most dangerous enemy courses of action (MDCOA)

• MDCOA 1 (Breakthrough and Deep Encirclement - Dnipropetrovsk): RF achieves a decisive breakthrough from the Sosnovka salient, successfully encircling and isolating a significant UAF grouping in Velykomykhailivka, and rapidly advancing deeper into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This would force UAF to make difficult choices regarding strategic withdrawals and resource allocation, potentially leading to a collapse of defensive lines in the region. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
• MDCOA 2 (Coordinated Multi-National Hybrid Attack on NATO): RF orchestrates a large-scale, multi-national (RF/Belarus) hybrid attack targeting critical infrastructure in NATO border states (e.g., energy grids, transportation hubs, military installations) using a combination of drones, cyber attacks, and potentially special forces, aiming to overwhelm NATO's collective defense response and trigger an Article 5 scenario. This could coincide with a renewed, large-scale ground offensive in Ukraine. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
• MDCOA 3 (Strategic Paralysis via Massed, Multi-Domain Strike): RF executes an even larger, highly coordinated multi-domain strike across Ukraine, combining an unprecedented number of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and UAVs (400+ targets) with simultaneous cyber attacks on Ukrainian C2 and critical infrastructure, aiming to achieve strategic paralysis and force Ukraine to negotiate on RF terms. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

5.3. Timeline estimates and decision points

• Next 24-48 Hours (Immediate Threat):

  • Pokrovsk/Dnipropetrovsk: RF will likely attempt to consolidate gains in Sosnovka and intensify pressure on Velykomykhailivka, potentially attempting an encirclement. Decision point for UAF is immediate counter-deployment or tactical withdrawal from Velykomykhailivka.
  • Air Campaign: Continued high-volume UAV/KAB attacks on energy and critical infrastructure across Ukraine. Decision point for UAF is further dispersal of air defense assets or prioritization of targets.
  • NATO Border: Continued RF probing of NATO airspace, potentially with increased volume or more advanced drones. Decision point for NATO is escalation of ROE or direct defensive action against incursions.
  • Information Environment: RF will continue aggressive IO campaigns leveraging new battlefield developments and diplomatic incidents. Decision point for UAF is to proactively counter RF narratives and amplify its own successes.

• Next 72 Hours (Short-Term Escalation):

  • Ground: If successful in Velykomykhailivka, RF may attempt to exploit the Dnipropetrovsk salient further. If repelled, RF will likely reinforce and re-evaluate, but maintain pressure.
  • Air: RF could initiate another massed air strike (200+ targets) if previous attacks degrade UAF air defenses sufficiently or in response to UAF deep strikes.
  • Hybrid: Continued and potentially more overt hybrid operations against NATO, possibly using conventional forces in Belarus to apply pressure on Polish/Lithuanian borders.
  • Diplomatic: Expect heightened diplomatic activity and potential for emergency NATO consultations if hybrid actions escalate significantly.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize Immediate Defensive Reinforcement for Velykomykhailivka: Immediately redeploy available combat-effective reserves (manpower, artillery, armor) to establish a hardened defensive perimeter and counter-encirclement capability around Velykomykhailivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Prioritize close air support and anti-armor assets for this sector. (PIR 1.4: CRITICAL: Sosnovka BDA and UAF posture in Velykomykhailivka).
2. Expedite Advanced Air Defense Deployment to Critical Infrastructure: Request immediate acceleration of Western air defense system deliveries (e.g., Patriot, NASAMS) and munitions, prioritizing deployment to critical energy, DIB, and national C2 nodes, particularly in Western and Central Ukraine. Coordinate with NATO for enhanced real-time intelligence sharing on RF strike packages. (PIR 1.4: CRITICAL: DIB facilities BDA).
3. Intensify Deep Strike Operations Against RF Logistical Hubs (Smolensk, Primorsk): Capitalize on recent successes (Smolensk, Primorsk) by planning and executing follow-on deep strike operations against known RF fuel and ammunition depots, transportation hubs (rail, port), and airfields to disrupt RF's ability to sustain multi-axis offensives and air campaigns. (PIR 1.4: CRITICAL: Smolensk, Primorsk BDA).
4. Launch Coordinated IO Campaign Targeting RF Logistics and NATO Disunity Narratives: Immediately task STRATCOM to develop and disseminate targeted information products. Highlight confirmed RF logistical vulnerabilities and casualties from UAF strikes. Simultaneously, proactively counter RF narratives on NATO disunity by emphasizing allied military cooperation, mutual defense commitments, and the increasing costs for RF due to hybrid operations. (PIR 1.4: CRITICAL: RF logistics, NATO ROE, RF IO narratives).
5. Conduct Comprehensive Review of Drone Combat Doctrine and Counter-UAV Capabilities: Task UAF G6 and Air Force to immediately review current drone combat doctrine, particularly regarding drone-on-drone engagements and anti-drone defenses. Allocate resources for accelerated procurement and development of advanced counter-UAV systems, EW capabilities, and reactive drones to maintain air superiority in the tactical and operational domains. (PIR 1.4: HIGH: Drone-on-drone combat, reactive drones).
6. Enhance Border Surveillance and Interdiction Against Hybrid Incursions: Increase all-source ISR (IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT) along the borders with Belarus and RF (Sumy, Kharkiv) to detect and interdict RF/Belarusian hybrid operations, including drone incursions and special forces activities. Coordinate with Polish, Latvian, and Lithuanian counterparts for real-time intelligence sharing and joint exercises. (PIR 1.4: CRITICAL: Poland border closure impact, Belarusian border reinforcement, RF UAVs Sumy/Kharkiv).

//END REPORT//