Situation Report

SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - 111833Z SEP 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (Confidence: HIGH)

RF forces maintain multi-axis pressure, with the Pokrovsk axis remaining the primary operational focus, where previous reports of RF advances near Chynyshyn, urban combat in Muravka, and within Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) itself are ongoing. Confirmed (Rybar, Операция Z, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Воин DV, TASS, Андрей Марочко): RF forces of "Vostok" Grouping have "liberated" Sosnovka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This is a significant RF advance and consolidation of gains on a previously contested or lightly held axis. TASS further reports this "liberation" will allow RF to enhance encirclement of a UAF grouping in Velykomykhailivka, indicating a tactical objective for this new front. Russian military blogger Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports ongoing combat south of Stepnohirsk, with RF aviation actively targeting UAF positions. Confirmed (Colonelcassad): RF claims to be assaulting Zarechnoye (Lyman direction), with map-based analysis of Russian advances from September 4-11, 2025. This indicates continued RF pressure and claimed territorial gains on the Lyman axis. Z комитет + карта СВО confirms RF activity on Krasnolimanskoye direction (Lyman) via map analysis, though specific new details are not discernible from the provided image beyond ongoing activity (Confidence: MEDIUM). The same source also highlights activity near Kolodyazi (Confidence: MEDIUM). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo with the caption "Dnepropetrovsk direction," showing an RF soldier with a helmet and machine gun, implying continued RF presence and operations in this newly opened axis (Confidence: HIGH).

Intense combat continues near Krasny Liman, DPR, with the RF 103rd Regiment advancing towards Konstantinovka. TASS reports RF forces are approximately 7 km from Krasny Liman. New RF ground activity on the Siverske direction includes RF forces taking control of approximately 50% of Pereyizne, south of Siversk, DPR, and advances in the Kremensky forests, LPR, taking control of approximately 3 km of the administrative border. RF UAVs continue to establish "fire control" over UAF logistical routes near Krasny Liman and Izium-Barvinkove. RF also claims control of 1.5 km of a supply route in Kupyansk. Zvиздец Мангусту indicates minimal RF progression towards Oleksandrivka (Kramatorsk Raion) on the Lyman direction. TASS reports RF forces have advanced in Kirovsk (Zarichne), DPR, reaching its southwestern outskirts. "Z комитет + карта СВО" indicates RF activity on Katerynivka in Luhansk Oblast. "Два майора" (citing Rybar) reports on the "liberation" of Zelenyi Hai and fighting for Torske, with map-based analysis of Russian advances in August-September 2025 towards Zarechnoye, Torske, and Novokareevka, indicating sustained RF offensive operations on the Lyman direction with new claimed territorial gains. Сливочный каприз provides a photo message with the caption "11.09.25 Konstyantynivka - Nelepovka" indicating ongoing combat or positional changes between these two locations (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad reports RF forces have "expelled the enemy from Katerynivka" and continue to advance in the Konstantinovka direction, near Kleban-Byk and Pleshcheyevka, based on a tactical map update (Confidence: HIGH). This indicates further RF territorial gains and continued offensive pressure on a critical UAF defensive axis. Colonelcassad further confirms RF advances on the Borovskoe direction, implying continued pressure on this axis (Confidence: HIGH). Два майора shares a map showing "Бои в окрестностях Константиновки" (Fighting in the vicinity of Konstantinovka) (Confidence: HIGH). This reinforces ongoing intense combat in this critical area.

GSU reports indicate a significant concentration of RF forces and 130 combat engagements over the past 24 hours on the Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka, and Shakhtarske directions, with UAF repelling numerous attacks. RF is attempting to advance near Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast. TASS reports RF forces repelled a UAF counterattack on the left bank of the Vovcha River in Vovchansk and occupied four technical buildings. RF Special Forces (14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, "Sida" detachment of AHMAT, "Anvar" detachment) are actively supporting ground assaults on the South Donetsk direction and conducting precision strikes against UAF artillery on the Sumy direction, with "Anvar" confirmed operating in buffer zones along the Kharkiv and Chernihiv borders. RF is reportedly bringing up reserves to Vovchansk. Воин DV reports that units of the RF 5th Army Group "Vostok" are destroying UAF personnel and vehicles in the South Donetsk direction, with accompanying video showing successful drone strikes on a military vehicle and subsequent defensive measures against a drone (flares). TASS, citing Saldo, claims the Kherson-Mykolaiv highway is under RF fire control. GSU reports for South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction show clashes near Vovchansk, Ambarne, and Odradne. On Kupyansk direction, clashes near Myrne, Kupyansk, and Borivska Andriyivka. On Lyman direction, clashes near Hrekivka, Serednye, Kolodyazi, Stavka, Torske, and Shandryholove. On Siversk direction, clashes near Vyyimka and Dronivka. On Kramatorsk direction, clashes near Bila Hora, Mayske and towards Stupochky and Predtechyne. On Toretsk direction, clashes near Scherbynivka, Oleksandro-Kalynove, Kleban-Byk, Pleschiyivka, Rusyn Yar, Poltavka and towards Berestky, Sofiyivka. On Pokrovsk direction, clashes near Volodymyrivka, Vilne, Zolotyy Kolodyaz, Nove Shakhove, Kotlyne, Nykanorivka, Rodynske, Promin, Lysivka, Novoekonomichne, Myrolubivka, Zvirove, Udachne, Dachne, Novoukrayinka. On Novopavlivka direction, clashes near Filiya, Oleksandrohrad, Maliyivka, Komyshuvakha, Olhivske, Tolstoy, Piddubne, Novoivanivka and towards Ivanivka. On Orikhiv direction, clashes near Plavni and Stepnohirsk. On Huliaipole direction, clashes near Bilohirya. On Kherson direction, clashes near Antonivka and Sadove. On Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, UAF repelled 7 Russian army assaults. Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report a successful UAF operation by the National Guard unit 'Lazar' to destroy a bridge over the Siverskyi Donets river near Nova Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, Russia. This involved FPV drones and pre-planted mines to prevent RF logistical movement (Confidence: HIGH). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing widespread destruction in Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, in September 2025, confirming heavy combat and significant damage to urban areas. The video is attributed to the Ukrainian 34th Separate Motorized Brigade, indicating UAF presence and operations (Confidence: HIGH). Kadyrov_95 shares video showing "West-AHMAT" battalion (RF MoD) and Russian Internal Affairs Ministry (OMVD) personnel, along with the RF 128th Brigade, engaged in combat operations in the Vovchansk area, Kharkiv direction, using FPV drones against Ukrainian positions and equipment (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video compilation of FPV drone ambushes on enemy vehicles and manpower, captioned "Pleasant and meditative selection of FPV ambushes on enemy vehicles and manpower." The video depicts various military vehicles, including trucks and potentially light armored vehicles, moving along dirt roads. Some segments show thermal imaging, indicating nighttime operations, with a 'BOMB_ARMED' warning appearing on screen at one point, suggesting the deployment of ordnance. The video also shows a 'LOW BATTERY' warning on the drone feed. This confirms ongoing UAF FPV drone operations targeting RF logistics and personnel (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a Ukrainian military operation, using drone footage from an aerial perspective. It shows a camouflaged position in a wooded area with a D-30 122mm howitzer being loaded and fired. The video also shows a series of artillery strikes with visible explosions, indicating successful engagement or attempted engagement of enemy positions (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video from a drone's perspective, likely a reconnaissance or strike drone, showing thermal imaging of personnel and potential targets, direct strikes resulting in explosions, and general landscape views. 'X' markers with numbers suggest an ongoing operation or series of observed events. Russian flags on targets indicate engagement with Russian forces. The video contains a QR code and bank transfer details, suggesting a call for donations (Confidence: HIGH). Операция Z shares a compilation of drone footage showcasing the identification and engagement of various enemy assets including a pickup truck, a Leopard-1 tank, artillery, an unknown vehicle, and an antenna, as well as a 'BABA-YAGA' drone and other enemy personnel and equipment. The footage transitions between daylight and thermal imaging (Confidence: HIGH). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares video footage of two makeshift buggy-like vehicles and an ATV in a wooded environment. The camouflage suggests attempts at concealment. (Confidence: HIGH). This indicates the continued use of improvised or non-standard military vehicles in forested terrain, potentially for reconnaissance or light combat roles.

Deep strikes persist on Ukrainian energy, industrial, and civilian infrastructure across 15 oblasts. Confirmed damage to the Sumy Oblast Administration (OVA) building, the Ukrainian Government Headquarters in Kyiv, the Sokil ice arena in Kyiv, the Cabinet of Ministers building in Kyiv, and the Trypilska TPP. The death toll from the aviation bomb strike on Yarova, Donetsk Oblast, has risen to 25. Civilian casualties and damage from combined missile and drone attacks are also confirmed in Vinnytsia (31 injured), Khmelnytskyi (sewing factory destroyed, 3 injured), Zhytomyr (1 killed, 5 injured), and Kramatorsk (central square, residential areas, market hit by drones). An energy object in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast has been hit by drones. Zaporizhzhia suffered a drone attack on a residential building, injuring two civilians, with four additional wounded reported from attacks on Prymorske and Zaporizhzhia. The 68-year-old man severely injured in a drone strike on Prymorske yesterday has died in hospital. Mykolaiv has experienced drone threats and explosions. Berdychiv (Zhytomyr Oblast) was hit by missile strikes. Enemy strike on an educational institution in the Zarichny district of Sumy is confirmed. A Russian drone hit the Holy Resurrection Cathedral in the center of Sumy. A "Shahed" drone hit one of Chernihiv's enterprises, causing a fire. UAF General Staff reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Krasnyy Khutir of Chernihiv region, Zaliznychne, Orikhiv of Zaporizhzhia region. Shelling reported in Novodonetske, causing a building to be engulfed in flames. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports strikes on Nikopol region continued all day, affecting Nikopol, Marhanets, Pokrovsk, Myrove, and Chervonohryhorivka communities with artillery and drones. This indicates sustained RF fire on civilian areas in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Confidence: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares video of a significant explosion in Kramatorsk, implying recent RF FPV drone activity against civilian infrastructure (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports a 65-year-old man was wounded in an enemy attack on Polohy Raion (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an injured man from Prymorske died from his wounds (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports that the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) attacked the ZNPP training center; no casualties, and safe operation modes of the power units were not violated. This is an RF claim of UAF targeting a sensitive nuclear facility (Confidence: HIGH).

Reports indicate at least eight explosions in occupied Donetsk, with TASS claiming UAF missile attacks repelled. Mash on Donbas reports power outages in Kyivskyi district of Donetsk and damaged windows in a traumatology hospital and nearby residential buildings, with a new video claiming a multi-apartment building in Donetsk was hit, "presumably by NATO MLRS". AV БогомаZ reports Ukrainian FPV drones attacked a civilian vehicle near Polyana, Starodubsky Municipal District, Belgorod Oblast, Russia (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA reports that 6 people were injured in attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Belgorod Oblast, with a Pyaterochka supermarket among the affected targets. The report includes multiple photos of damaged civilian infrastructure and injured individuals (Confidence: HIGH).

UAV activity remains extremely high. UAF Air Force reports 62 of 66 enemy UAV targets were shot down/suppressed overnight, indicating a slightly lower volume but still significant drone attack compared to the previous period. Confirmed (Повітряні Силі ЗС України, Colonelcassad): Groups of enemy UAVs are entering southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast from Temporarily Occupied Territories (TOT), course - north/northwest, and additional KABs are launched on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. RF claims destruction of 225 Ukrainian UAVs, one Neptune guided missile, and three HIMARS MLRS rockets over the past day. RF reconnaissance UAVs are active in the Black Sea towards Odesa and in Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts. RF drones are confirmed active across central, western, and northern Ukraine. UAF Air Force reports guided aerial bombs launched on Donetsk Oblast and Sumy Oblast. Старше Эдды shares video of what is identified as a RF kamikaze drone "Upyr" attempting to evade a UAF interceptor drone near Prykolotne, Kharkiv Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares compilation video of "waiting drones" (drones-zhdunov) patiently waiting for and then attacking RF vehicles and personnel. Confirmed (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition): Video shows a RF kamikaze drone "Upyr" engaging a UAF interceptor drone near Prykolotne, Kharkiv Oblast. This reinforces the ongoing aerial drone combat. STERNENKO reports 20 enemy drones shot down by HUR MOD specialists (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of Shahed drone debris in Odesa, indicating a successful UAF interception or a drone malfunction over a populated area (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ reports a UAF kamikaze drone clearing a roadblock with three FPV "waiting drones" (FPV-ждунів), indicating active UAF counter-drone and offensive drone operations (Confidence: HIGH). WarGonzo reports a Ukrainian "Yozhka" drone shot down near Lyman (Confidence: MEDIUM). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV in southern Odesa Oblast (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV south of Zaporizhzhia, moving towards the city (Confidence: HIGH). Kotsnews shares drone footage of Russian 'Vega' unit operations, including observation and potential targeting of enemy (UAF) positions with armored vehicles, shelters, barreled weapons, antennae, and manpower. Some RF vehicles appear damaged, indicating recent engagement (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a reconnaissance UAV in central Chernihiv Oblast which could be acting as a spotter for enemy strikes (Confidence: HIGH). This indicates continued RF ISR activity over northern Ukraine. Colonelcassad shares a video of a captured Ukrainian reconnaissance drone ("Shark"), highlighting its markings and Ukrainian flag insignia. The drone appears damaged, and the presenter mentions its cost of approximately 8.5 million currency units. The video claims the drone was destroyed by RF "Fever" fighters (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo with the caption "Kharkiv direction" and a thermal imaging drone video showing a series of artillery strikes impacting what appear to be Russian military positions. Numerous vehicles are visible in a convoy or staging area, with several explosions indicating successful hits (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV south of Odesa (Confidence: HIGH).

CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT: At least 15 RF drones have been found in Poland, with one reportedly falling near a Territorial Defense military base. This follows NATO invoking Article 4 due to significant incursions up to 250 km deep into Polish airspace. Polish F-16s scrambled, and Netherlands F-35s reportedly shot down Russian "Gerbera" UAVs over Poland. Rzeszów, Lublin, and Warsaw airports were temporarily closed. Poland is redeploying units to the Belarusian border and has imposed flight restrictions along its borders with Belarus and Ukraine until December 9. Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania have closed their airspaces along the border with Belarus and Russia indefinitely, and Poland has notified Belarus of the closure of all remaining border crossings with Belarus from 12 SEP 25, including road and rail points. Confirmed (ТАСС, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Операція Z, Оперативний ЗСУ): Netherlands MFA summoned the Russian ambassador regarding the drone incident over Poland. Multiple sources confirm drones also entered Lithuanian airspace, with some believed to be heading towards the NATO base in Rzeszów. Confirmed (РБК-Україна): Ukraine has officially reacted to the "cynical statement" by the Slovakian Foreign Minister regarding drones in Poland. This indicates continued diplomatic fallout from the incident. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ report Poland is massing 40,000 troops to its borders with Russia and Belarus (Confidence: HIGH). Операция Z also reports Poland dispatching 40,000 troops to its borders, referencing the "West-2025" military exercises (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS attributes to Reuters that Ukraine will train Polish forces on drone interception (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAЙНЕ FIGHTS further details that the "Gerbera" drones were equipped with additional fuel tanks, extending their range, and the aim of the attack was to limit air defense transfers to Ukraine and force the closure of the Rzeszow airbase (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA confirms Polish authorities are redeploying approximately 40,000 soldiers to the border with Belarus and Russia (Confidence: HIGH). ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 also confirms Poland sending 40,000 troops to the border ahead of "West-2025" exercises (Confidence: HIGH). Два майора reports Reuters as stating Poland will send its military to Ukraine to train on drone interception (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС confirms that Poland will deploy 40,000 troops to the border with Belarus in the coming days, citing Polish Deputy Minister of Defense Cezary Tomczyk, linking it to the "West-2025" military exercises (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Leonid Slutsky stated the drone situation in Poland increasingly resembles the MH-17 incident or the Skripal case, with the West escalating the mythical "Russian threat." (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна shares a photo message stating that Britain and France want to strengthen NATO's eastern flank with Rafale and Eurofighter jets (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a photo message stating that Putin is delighted with the results of the "air defense check" by a swarm of drones in Poland, and The Financial Times writes that this attack pushes him to go further next time (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports France will send three Rafale fighters to patrol NATO's "eastern flank" after the drone incident in Poland (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA reports that France will send three Rafale fighters to patrol NATO's "eastern flank" following the drone incursions into Poland (Confidence: HIGH). This confirms continued NATO reinforcement. РБК-Україна reports that French President Macron has sent three Rafale fighters to Poland in response to the drone attacks (Confidence: HIGH).

Ukrainian HUR (Main Intelligence Directorate) units successfully struck and disabled an RF Black Sea Fleet vessel (Project MPSV07) near Novorossiysk. Sources state that the vessel, identified as a multi-purpose rescue/salvage ship, is now out of action and requires costly repairs. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Russian channels are circulating video of a missile attack on artillery depots of RF's "Dnipro" Grouping of Forces located in Sonyachna Dolyna near Sudak in occupied Crimea.

Confirmed (Олександр Вілкул): Photos depicting subway station. No military significance. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Офіс Генерального прокурора): Court selected a pre-trial restraint for NABU official suspected of inaccurate property declaration. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO, РБК-Україна, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Colonelcassad, Военкор Котенок, Операция Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, Николаевский Ванёк): UAF Su-27 aircraft crashed during a combat mission in the Zaporizhzhia direction, killing pilot Major Oleksandr Borovyk of the 39th Tactical Aviation Brigade. RF sources claim their Air-Space Forces "downed" the Su-27. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Народная милиция ДНР): Video message encouraging UAF soldiers to surrender via Telegram bot @FREE_SOLDIER2022. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Fighterbomber): Photo message with caption "The last anti-aircraft missiles of the Khokhols are being spent on friendly fire." (Confidence: MEDIUM) Confirmed (Операция Z): Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov states that the US understands the need to eliminate the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis, not arm Kyiv. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦): Video of a woman discussing her son's death in the war, framing it as a "feat" and "transition." (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Басурин о главном): Photo message with caption "The USA wants to return the Jackson-Vanik amendment." (Confidence: MEDIUM) Confirmed (ТАСС, РБК-Україна): Russian citizens receiving SMS about crypto wallets; FBI found weapon used in Charlie Kirk shooting. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Kotsnews): "Baltic states ask the US not to abandon them." (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition): Video of RF kamikaze drone "Upyr" engaging a UAF interceptor drone near Prykolotne, Kharkiv Oblast. RF claims interceptor failed. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Новости Москвы): Moscow metro stations to be open until 02:00 on Sept 13-14. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺): Map image showing "Siverske direction." No new operational details discernible from the image itself. (Confidence: MEDIUM) Confirmed (ТАСС, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА): Mi-8 helicopter made a hard landing in Kaliningrad due to bad weather; no casualties. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (ТАСС): Tourist traffic to Krasnodar region may grow by 25%, to Crimea by 50% due to Krasnodar airport opening. S7 Airlines plans flights to Krasnodar. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Два майора): Photo message: "In Germany, sabotage is reported again." (Confidence: MEDIUM) Confirmed (ТАСС): Polish FM Radoslaw Sikorski emotionally urged Poles not to visit Russia and Belarus. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС): Video of a cemetery in Krasnoyarsk Krai, РФ, showing neglected graves of three brothers killed in the war, now trampled by cattle. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Colonelcassad): Photo of a mural in Kazan station. Not militarily significant. (Confidence: LOW) Confirmed (Оперативний ЗСУ): Photo message, caption "Madhouse, situation". No military significance. (Confidence: LOW) Confirmed (Операция Z): Bloomberg reports NATO is strengthening its eastern flank after drone incident in Poland. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition): Stubb stated in Kyiv that "Russia is suffering defeat in all directions and strategic moments on the battlefield." RF milblogger dismisses this as unrealistic. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (AV БогомаZ): Photos of opening a thousandth sports ground in Russia (Bylinskaya land). No direct military significance. (Confidence: HIGH) Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА provides a photo message of drones being sent to the front. The image includes banners, one identifying as "ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE" with "ACIEM INDURAVIT" (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС states information about "Армия России" stores closing is false (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns attributes statements to Lukashenko thanking Trump for "peace efforts" and announcing pardons for foreign citizens, framing it as a "gesture of goodwill" (Confidence: HIGH). MoD Russia claims a T-90M Proryv tank of the Zapad Group of Forces neutralized a UAF UAV command post by indirect fire in the Krasny Liman direction (Confidence: HIGH). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares video of damaged vehicles on a desolate road in Primorsky, implying recent engagement (Confidence: MEDIUM). ТАСС confirms "Победа" will resume flights from Moscow to Krasnodar on September 19 (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports Trump will posthumously award Charlie Kirk the Presidential Medal of Freedom (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС shows an exhibition of historical cartoons, including those critical of Nazi Germany and Soviet actions (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports a Mi-8 hard landing in Kaliningrad due to bad weather did not affect airport operations (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС provides a graphic summarizing recent RF news: Krasnodar airport opening, "Belavia" sanctions lifted, Dmitry Bykov added to extremists list, and Rosgvardia receiving tanks (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message with a Ukrainian piano, stating "Некогда объяснять. Но музыкальным школам на Украине рекомендую спрятать пианино. Быть добру!" (No time to explain. But I recommend musical schools in Ukraine to hide their pianos. All will be well!), possibly implying future strikes on cultural targets (Confidence: MEDIUM). Kotsnews shares a video featuring a speaker claiming NATO failed to respond militarily or politically to the drone attack on Poland, implying Russian military superiority (Confidence: HIGH). Janus Putkonen suggests "Alaska 2025" agreement continues in Belarus, a cryptic reference to a geopolitical shift (Confidence: LOW). Сливочный каприз provides a photo message with a summary of combat operations from September 7-10, 2025 (Confidence: MEDIUM). Старше Эдды shares a screenshot from "Коммерсантъ" with a positive comment, not militarily significant (Confidence: LOW). Оперативний ЗСУ confirms a court decision selecting a pre-trial restraint for a NABU official (Confidence: HIGH). Игорь Артамонов shares photos of a mentorship meeting, not militarily significant (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports construction of "Paks-2" NPP in Hungary will continue despite EU court decision (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad reports "Zilbertrud" (Dmitry Bykov) added to list of terrorists and extremists (Confidence: HIGH). Старше Эдды shares a video criticizing modern America, referencing Charlie Kirk as a martyr for traditional values, and hinting at civil war, as part of RF IO (Confidence: HIGH). Басурин о главном shares a post titled "War with Orthodoxy," suggesting a religious-ideological dimension to the conflict (Confidence: MEDIUM). Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message claiming a political prisoner released by Lukashenko (at Trump's request) refused to leave Belarus, portraying a complex human rights situation (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photos of officials working in Zaporizhzhia, demonstrating governmental presence and reconstruction efforts (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of "corrupt Nepalese officials" being evacuated by helicopter, likely unrelated but reflects IO on corruption (Confidence: LOW). ТАСС reports a Moscow court ordered businessman Konstantin Ponomarev to pay 1.709 billion rubles in damages to the state (Confidence: HIGH). Два майора warns of potential issues in Krasnodar Krai, referencing the Governor, but specific details are not provided in the snippet (Confidence: LOW). Старше Эдды agrees with Kotsnews's "deepfake" analysis (Confidence: MEDIUM). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video from "enemy publics" showing strikes on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with RF attempting to seize territory to "fix its presence" (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports Ukraine and Hungary have agreed on the agenda for a dialogue between Orban and Zelenskyy (Confidence: HIGH). STERNENKO announces the "Man in the Military" award for military leaders in Ukraine, encouraging nominations (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Italian ambassador is completing diplomatic mission in Moscow (Confidence: HIGH). Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими reports a meeting with families of 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade defenders who are POWs or missing (Confidence: HIGH). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video commemorating the 2022 liberation of territory up to the state border by the Khartia unit (127th Brigade of Territorial Defense) (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message claiming "Договорняка не будет говорили они. А это тогда что?" (They said there would be no deal. So what is this then?), likely referring to the US-Belarus diplomatic opening as a "deal" (Confidence: MEDIUM). ТАСС reports Trump will posthumously award Charlie Kirk the Presidential Medal of Freedom (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports the suspect in the Charlie Kirk murder is under 25 (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message about a Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) priest attacking military commissars with an axe and pepper spray in Cherkasy, and possessing a handgun, framing it as an act against the state (Confidence: HIGH). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports tank units have been recreated within Rosgvardia and artillery firepower significantly increased through heavy weapon expansion (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues an "ALERT" (УВАГА🚨), likely an air raid alert or similar urgent warning (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports US Energy Minister Chris Wright stated the US aims to reduce Russian gas supplies to Europe to zero, replacing them with US energy resources (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports Poland is deploying 40,000 soldiers to its borders with Belarus and Russia (Confidence: HIGH). STERNENKO confirms this deployment of approximately 40,000 soldiers to the borders (Confidence: HIGH). Операция Z also reports this, linking it to the upcoming "West-2025" military exercises (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA reports the Russian Central Bank (ЦБ РФ) has raised the dollar exchange rate above ₽85 for the first time since April (Confidence: HIGH). Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) reports Finland's GDP has collapsed the most in the EU (Confidence: MEDIUM). ТАСС reports Aeroflot has opened ticket sales for its first Moscow-Krasnodar flight since 2022 (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС also states Aeroflot plans to open international flights from Krasnodar in the coming days (Confidence: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a photo message with a humorous Ukrainian flag caption, likely an internal morale post (Confidence: LOW). ТАСС reports Slovak PM Fico stated Slovakia rejects the deployment of Western troops in Ukraine and will not send its own soldiers (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares several photo messages and analysis of Rosgvardia conducting exercises with heavy army equipment, criticizing their current deployment and advocating for their use on the front as a second echelon (Confidence: HIGH). This includes images of a camouflaged artillery system and a tank firing. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares drone footage of a Romanian APR-40 MLRS being hit by a Russian drone in Baranovka, Kharkiv Oblast, claiming this is a rare target and praising the scouts of the 1st Tank Army (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports a strike on a "Navoz" (likely derogatory term for Azov) deployment point in the Sloviansk direction (Confidence: MEDIUM). РБК-Україна reports a new suspicion has been announced against a former minister from Yanukovych's time (Confidence: HIGH). Kotsnews shares a photo message about why Alla Pugacheva should be ignored, related to Russian internal cultural/political commentary (Confidence: LOW). Оперативний ЗСУ shares a photo message with a caption referencing "evil and ruthless paranoia-moment", not militarily significant (Confidence: LOW). General SVR provides a general channel update, no military significance (Confidence: LOW). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a book pre-order announcement, not militarily significant (Confidence: LOW). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on Russian media promoting the spiritual awakening of "SVO participants" after losing limbs and Russia's readiness to become a flagship in prosthetics, framing how the war affects Russians (Confidence: HIGH). Воин DV shares a video of combat training for assault groups of the 20th Army, showing soldiers in a live-fire exercise in a woodland environment (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a cryptic message, no military significance (Confidence: LOW). Два майора shares multiple photo/video messages, not militarily significant (Confidence: LOW). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides a news article excerpt (Confidence: MEDIUM). НгП раZVедка shares a photo message commemorating Felix Dzerzhinsky (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports direct railway connection between Almaty and Moscow will resume (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares a video of a street scene in Odesa, likely for IO (Confidence: LOW). ASTRA confirms Polish authorities are redeploying approximately 40,000 soldiers to the border with Belarus and Russia (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares a photo of a border checkpoint (Kamenniy Log) (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ shares Estonian PM Kallas's prediction that the war will last at least two more years (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports over half of drones supplied to UAF via state contracts are defective (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a text message from the Krasnodar Krai Governor (Confidence: LOW). STERNENKO shares video of Ukrainian special forces destroying an RF BMD-3 in Zaporizhzhia direction (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС shares photos of Krasnodar International Airport reopening (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message of food, not militarily significant (Confidence: LOW). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an air raid alert lifted (Confidence: HIGH). Mash на Донбассе shares video of soldiers in a military vehicle on a rough road (Confidence: LOW). ТАСС reports Netherlands found no evidence of Moscow's involvement in Polish drone incident (Confidence: HIGH). Операция Z shares photo and video messages claiming Rosgvardia has enhanced combat potential with tank units and increased artillery (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports air threat lifted for Odesa Oblast (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна reiterates Estonian PM Kallas's prediction on war duration (Confidence: HIGH). Новости Москвы shares video and photo messages of beggars and a social media post (Confidence: LOW). Alex Parker Returns shares video of a street scene, likely Avdiivka, with a text overlay "Avdeevsky sprinter" (Confidence: LOW). Colonelcassad reports FBI findings on Charlie Kirk murder, including weapon and political inscriptions (Confidence: HIGH). ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 shares promotional material for a bank's chat-bot (Confidence: LOW). Два майора shares photo messages titled "Soldier's everyday life," including domestic scenes (Confidence: LOW). Colonelcassad shares a video depicting an altercation between civilians and at least one military personnel in what appears to be Kharkiv at night. The individual in uniform seems to be attempting to manage the situation (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video showing a traumatic amputation of a hand, attributed to a drone drop, with 'Omega 5' insignia indicating a Ukrainian special forces unit. This is graphic evidence of combat injuries (Confidence: HIGH). Олексій Білошицький shares graphic designs related to attention for Kyiv residents (Confidence: LOW - military significance). Alex Parker Returns shares a message from a pro-Russian source expressing a sense of betrayal and labeling an action by Netanyahu as "barbaric" and "state terrorism." This is likely an internal RF IO narrative intended to rally support around an anti-Western stance and criticize international actors (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA reports Zelenskyy stated that the penetration of Russian drones into Polish airspace was not accidental, reinforcing the deliberate nature of the RF hybrid operation (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an "underground" school has opened in Vilnyansk community, providing education for 1,000 children (Confidence: HIGH). This is a civilian-focused initiative, demonstrating UAF adaptation to conflict conditions to ensure continuity of education and local governance in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that Ukraine has "finally recognized the first marriage between two men," accompanied by a photo message (Confidence: HIGH). This is RF IO focused on social conservative narratives to criticize Ukraine and its alignment with Western values. Рыбарь shares a photo message with a Ukrainian flag and the caption "Well, everyone ran, and so did we" (Confidence: HIGH). This is RF IO attempting to portray UAF forces as fleeing or demoralized, likely in response to current ground operations. НгП раZVедка shares a message "Why are you sitting, open the green sparkling wine, there's a reason to drink," likely celebrating a perceived RF success, possibly referring to Katerynivka or Sosnovka (Confidence: MEDIUM). ТАСС reports the Russian Cabinet of Ministers increased military personnel salaries by 7.6% (from 4.5%) starting October 1st (Confidence: HIGH). This indicates RF efforts to boost military morale and retain personnel. Kotsnews shares a photo message for "Evening Bell" with an image of a destroyed military vehicle, potentially a tank or armored personnel carrier, amidst rubble and smoke in an urban environment (Confidence: HIGH). The image includes the pro-Russian "Z" symbol on the vehicle, suggesting it is RF BDA of a UAF vehicle, or RF propaganda. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a photo message "Archangel Spetsnaz now in MAX!" (Confidence: LOW - military significance). Colonelcassad shares photos of an UAZ "Bukhanka" vehicle being prepared for the 135th Assault Battalion of the "Vostok" Group of Forces, supported by subscribers and the Baikal Tactical Group (Confidence: HIGH). This indicates continued volunteer support for RF forces and logistical efforts. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing a battlefield with significant destruction, cratered ground, damaged vegetation, and several individuals in military uniform, some moving, others incapacitated or deceased. The video also shows what appears to be an explosion and secondary explosions, with later segments showing statistics related to 'sent home' or destroyed enemy combatants (Confidence: HIGH). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares photo messages indicating projects "Faith in the SVO" and "History of one task" are being featured on federal channels (Confidence: LOW - military significance). Colonelcassad shares photos related to the FBI investigation into the Charlie Kirk murder, including photos of the suspect and the rifle (Confidence: HIGH). This confirms an ongoing US domestic event with high RF IO value. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares images from a meeting in Zaporizhzhia (Confidence: HIGH). This confirms continued administrative presence and activity. Zelenskiy / Official shares video and photos of a meeting with Danish, Finnish, and Estonian officials (Confidence: HIGH). This highlights continued high-level diplomatic engagement. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of President Zelenskyy meeting with US Ambassador Bridget Brink and US Special Representative General Keith Kellogg (Confidence: HIGH). This confirms high-level diplomatic engagement with the US.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (Confidence: HIGH)

Conditions remained generally clear and favorable for air operations, including missile and UAV strikes across most of Ukraine. Localized heavy rainfall caused significant flooding in Kyiv. Expected thunderstorms in Kharkiv could temporarily impact local air operations. Storm weather is reported in Donetsk. RF tactical aviation is actively launching KABs on Sumy, Donetsk, and northern Kharkiv Oblasts. A ballistic missile threat from the northeast has been reported and subsequently lifted for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reconnaissance UAVs are active over the Black Sea towards Odesa and in Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts. RF drones are confirmed active across central, western, and northern Ukraine. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is under missile threat, with drone attacks confirmed on Synelnykove. A nationwide air raid alert was active due to the launch of an RF MiG-31K, a carrier of the "Kinzhal" aeroballistic missile, which was subsequently lifted. Mash на Донбассе reports fields and dry grass caught fire on the outskirts of Yenakiieve, potentially impacting visibility or obscuring movements, though no direct military significance is immediately apparent. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports over 201 hectares of Kharkiv Oblast territory demined in a week, indicating ongoing post-combat environmental clearance efforts. Confirmed (ASTRA, ТАСС, Mash на Донбассе, ТАСС, Рыбарь, Colonelcassad): Krasnodar airport has reopened for civilian flights for the first time since the start of the war. "Aeroflot" expects to resume international flights from Krasnodar by the end of September. "Pobeda" will resume flights from Moscow to Krasnodar on September 19. Aeroflot has opened ticket sales for the first Moscow-Krasnodar flight since 2022. While civilian, this indicates an improving logistical environment in southern RF. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (ТАСС): Mi-8 helicopter made a hard landing in Kaliningrad due to bad weather; no casualties. This highlights weather impact on aviation even in rear areas. (Confidence: HIGH) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues an "ALERT" (УВАГА🚨), indicating an immediate threat, likely weather or air raid related, which will impact local operations or civilian movement (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 subsequently reports air raid alert lifted (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports air threat lifted for Odesa Oblast (Confidence: HIGH). AV БогомаZ reports an "all clear" for missile danger (Отбой ракетной опасности), indicating a previous threat has passed (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues an "Attention!" alert (Confidence: HIGH). This indicates an immediate air threat and will impact local operations. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast (Confidence: HIGH). This directly impacts environmental factors in the affected area. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV in northern Kharkiv Oblast, moving southwest (towards Kharkiv) (Confidence: HIGH). This indicates an ongoing air threat that will affect environmental and operational factors in Kharkiv.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (Confidence: HIGH)

• RF:
  • Ground Forces: RF continues its multi-axis ground offensive, notably on the Pokrovsk axis (Chynyshyn, Muravka, Krasnoarmeysk), Novopavlivka, Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, South Slobozhansky (Vovchansk), and Kupyansk directions. Confirmed (Рыбарь, TASS, Андрей Марочко): "Vostok" Grouping has liberated Sosnovka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a tactical objective to encircle UAF in Velykomykhailivka. Specific units involved include marine infantry, "Somali" battalion elements, and the RF 103rd Regiment. "Otvazhnye" units are heavily engaged near Pokrovsk. TASS reports RF forces have taken control of approximately 50% of Pereyizne, south of Siversk, DPR. RF has introduced 'Kur'er' robotic complexes and "Veterok" fiber-optic drones. "Anvar" special forces are active near the Sumy/Chernihiv border, clearing buffer zones. WarGonzo shares video focusing on a "Boby" battalion, showing individuals in a heavily damaged urban environment discussing operational concepts related to assault groups and taking objects, suggesting continued tactical focus on urban combat. TASS reports Rosgvardia has been armed with tank and anti-tank guns, self-propelled artillery, and MLRS, and has executed over 60,000 fire and tactical missions in the special operation. Народная милиция ДНР (238 Brigade) claims to have destroyed a UAF UAV control post in Berestok. Confirmed (MoD Russia): Video shows crews of a "Terminator" tank support fighting vehicle (Tsentr Group of Forces) training in a rear area, confirming continued training and readiness of specialized armored units. Confirmed (Народная милиция ДНР): Video message encouraging UAF soldiers to surrender via Telegram bot @FREE_SOLDIER2022. This indicates continued RF PSYOP efforts targeting UAF personnel. (Confidence: HIGH) MoD Russia claims a T-90M Proryv tank of the Zapad Group of Forces neutralized a UAF UAV command post by indirect fire in the Krasny Liman direction (Confidence: HIGH). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports tank units have been recreated within Rosgvardia and artillery firepower significantly increased through heavy weapon expansion (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares several photo messages and analysis of Rosgvardia conducting exercises with heavy army equipment, advocating for their use on the front as a second echelon and providing images of a camouflaged artillery system and a tank firing (Confidence: HIGH). Воин DV shares a video of combat training for assault groups of the 20th Army, showing soldiers in a live-fire exercise in a woodland environment (Confidence: HIGH). Операция Z (citing Военкоры Русской Весны) further confirms Rosgvardia's enhanced combat potential, including recreated tank units and increased artillery (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo from the "Dnepropetrovsk direction" featuring an RF soldier armed with a machine gun and helmet, confirming active RF ground forces in this newly contested area (Confidence: HIGH). Kotsnews shares drone footage of 'Vega' unit operations showing RF armored vehicles (including a 'Furgon' type), observation of UAF positions (shelters, barreled weapons, antennae, manpower), and some damaged RF vehicles, indicating active reconnaissance and engagement in forward areas (Confidence: HIGH). Kadyrov_95 shares video showing "West-AHMAT" battalion (RF MoD) and Russian Internal Affairs Ministry (OMVD) personnel, along with the RF 128th Brigade, engaged in combat operations in the Vovchansk area, Kharkiv direction, using FPV drones against Ukrainian positions and equipment (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad reports RF forces have "expelled the enemy from Katerynivka" and continue to advance in the Konstantinovka direction, near Kleban-Byk and Pleshcheyevka, indicating active ground forces on this axis (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports the Russian Cabinet of Ministers increased military personnel salaries by 7.6% (from 4.5%) starting October 1st, indicating an effort to boost morale and retention within the armed forces (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares photos of an UAZ "Bukhanka" vehicle being prepared for the 135th Assault Battalion of the "Vostok" Group of Forces, supported by subscribers and the Baikal Tactical Group (Confidence: HIGH). This confirms continued logistical support from civilian organizations to specific RF ground units. Colonelcassad shares video showing a Lancet drone from the 305th Guards Artillery Brigade engaged in counter-battery warfare on the South Donetsk direction, targeting an M-198 towed howitzer (Confidence: HIGH). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing a battlefield with significant destruction, cratered ground, damaged vegetation, and several individuals in military uniform, some moving, others incapacitated or deceased. The video also shows what appears to be an explosion and secondary explosions, with later segments showing statistics related to 'sent home' or destroyed enemy combatants (Confidence: HIGH). This suggests RF forces are operating in heavily contested areas. Операция Z shares a compilation of drone footage showcasing the identification and engagement of various enemy assets including a pickup truck, a Leopard-1 tank, artillery, an unknown vehicle, and an antenna, as well as a 'BABA-YAGA' drone and other enemy personnel and equipment. This indicates active RF offensive and ISR operations around Pokrovsk. Colonelcassad's map overlay on the Borovskoe direction confirms RF ground force advances in this area (Confidence: HIGH). Два майора shares a video showing a wounded soldier receiving medical attention inside what appears to be a mobile medical unit (Confidence: HIGH). This indicates the continued presence of combat casualties and the efforts by RF to provide medical support in the field. Colonelcassad shares a video depicting soldiers in a relaxed camp environment with food, drinks, and music, but also ammunition crates (Confidence: HIGH). This reflects the ongoing operations and the need for morale-boosting measures in rear areas. Два майора shares a photo message and a video showing "Кадры боевой работы эвакуационного автомобиля известнейшего боевого медика Хилера" (Footage of the combat work of the evacuation vehicle of the famous combat medic Hiler) (Confidence: HIGH). This directly confirms the presence and operations of specialized medical evacuation assets and personnel supporting RF ground forces in combat zones.
  • Air/Missile Forces: RF executed a UAV-centric air attack, with UAF Air Force reporting a 94% interception rate (62 of 66 UAVs). Confirmed (Повітряні Силі ЗС України, Colonelcassad): Groups of enemy UAVs are entering southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast from TOT, course - north/northwest. Launches of KABs on Sumy and Northern Kharkiv Oblasts (Повітряні Силі ЗС України). Launches of KABs on Donetsk Oblast (Повітряні Силі ЗС України). TASS reports 5 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over Belgorod Oblast. New military bases near Minsk, Belarus, could host Russian "Oreshnik" missiles. RF Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs on eastern Kharkiv Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, and Sumy Oblast. Confirmed (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Kotsnews): Video shows a RF kamikaze drone "Upyr" engaging a UAF interceptor drone near Prykolotne, Kharkiv Oblast, indicating active drone-on-drone combat and RF claims of interceptor failure. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Fighterbomber): Photo message with caption "The last anti-aircraft missiles of the Khokhols are being spent on friendly fire." This is an RF IO message attempting to discredit UAF air defense. (Confidence: MEDIUM) Confirmed (Военкор Котенок, Операция Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, Николаевский Ванёк): RF claims their Air-Space Forces "downed" a UAF Su-27 in the Zaporizhzhia direction. (Confidence: HIGH) WarGonzo reports a Ukrainian "Yozhka" drone shot down near Lyman (Confidence: MEDIUM). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV in southern Odesa Oblast (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV south of Zaporizhzhia, moving towards the city (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a reconnaissance UAV in central Chernihiv Oblast (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a thermal imaging drone video showing a series of artillery strikes impacting what appear to be Russian military positions. Numerous vehicles are visible in a convoy or staging area, with several explosions indicating successful hits (Confidence: HIGH). This suggests RF is actively engaged in large-scale fire missions. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues an "Attention!" alert, confirming ongoing air threats (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast, confirming active RF air operations (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV in northern Kharkiv Oblast, moving southwest (towards Kharkiv), indicating continued RF drone reconnaissance or strike missions (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV south of Odesa (Confidence: HIGH).
  • Naval Forces: USV attack on Novorossiysk confirmed. RF is developing new USV "Ushkuynik." CRITICAL: Ukrainian HUR reports confirm a successful strike on an RF Black Sea Fleet vessel (Project MPSV07) near Novorossiysk, severely damaging it.
  • Information Warfare (IO): RF is actively pushing narratives to discredit Ukraine, sow discord among allies. Операция Z attributes claims to "Военкоры Русской Весны" about Hungarian FM Szijjártó stating that Ukraine will not achieve EU membership without restoring rights for Zakarpattia Hungarians. Операция Z also pushes the narrative that Zelenskyy is "making excuses," claiming drones in Poland are "distracting NATO from Ukraine." RF MFA statement denied deliberate drone incursions into Poland, while milbloggers promote narratives questioning their origin. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition: Lavrov stated that the US understands the need to eliminate the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis, rather than continuing to arm Kyiv and throw more Ukrainian citizens into the "furnace" of hostilities. Alex Parker Returns: Russian military bloggers are asserting that the lifting of sanctions on Belavia will resolve the issue of spare parts shortages for Boeing aircraft, implying a direct benefit for Russia. TASS is leveraging Poland's confirmed preparation of a "military-defensive response" to the drone incident, aimed at strengthening NATO's eastern flank (Bloomberg), to frame NATO as escalatory. RF continues to widely disseminate the false claim that Ukraine will mobilize 15-year-olds. RF continues to use POW testimonies and disillusioned mercenary accounts for psychological warfare. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники: A convicted soldier broke his wife's skull with a hammer and received a suspended sentence. Басурин о главном shares a video of a child speaking, indicating continued use of children in propaganda. TASS reports writer Dmitry Bykov added to list of terrorists and extremists, demonstrating continued internal suppression of dissent. TASS reports Maria Zakharova called Alla Pugacheva's interview a "bazaar of hypocrisy," further showing internal political/cultural IO. Рыбарь shares a graphic titled "Ballast for Germany," likely anti-German IO. Воин DV promotes the re-designation of a Far Eastern Military Academy as "Guards," indicating internal morale boosting. Confirmed (ТАСС): Reports on arrests in Georgia for corruption (former Defense Minister Burchuladze) and for promising bribes (former Saakashvili party head Khabeishvili), likely to be used by RF IO to portray instability in Georgia, an aspiring EU/NATO member. Confirmed (Военкор Котенок): Video circulated of Ksenia Sobchak interviewing Arestovych in London, possibly used for IO to discredit Ukrainian figures or highlight their "luxury" abroad during wartime. Confirmed (TASS): Fico statement on not supporting sanctions against Russia unless the EC presents "real proposals" on climate/industry targets, indicating RF IO leveraging existing EU disunity. Confirmed (AV БогомаZ): Reports on a tennis tournament closing ceremony in Bryansk, dedicated to the "liberation of Bryansk from Nazi invaders," indicating continued internal RF IO focusing on patriotic themes and historical revisionism. Confirmed (Операция Z): Lavrov states the US understands the need to eliminate the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis, not arm Kyiv, a key RF IO narrative. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Kotsnews): "Baltic states ask the US not to abandon them," likely an RF IO attempt to sow discord and fear within NATO. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition): RF milblogger dismisses Finnish President Stubb's statements on Russian defeat as unrealistic, indicating a coordinated IO effort to downplay UAF successes and maintain the narrative of RF strength. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Операция Z): Bloomberg report on NATO strengthening its eastern flank is used by RF IO to frame NATO as escalatory. (Confidence: HIGH) ТАСС states information about "Армия России" stores closing is false, likely to counter rumors or reinforce the image of military strength (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns attributes statements to Lukashenko thanking Trump for "peace efforts" and announcing pardons for foreign citizens, which RF IO will use to portray Belarus as an independent actor and Trump as a peacemaker (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message with a Ukrainian piano, stating "Некогда объяснять. Но музыкальным школам на Украине рекомендую спрятать пианино. Быть добру!" (No time to explain. But I recommend musical schools in Ukraine to hide their pianos. All will be well!), a likely psychological operation (PSYOP) to instill fear or disrupt civilian life (Confidence: MEDIUM). Kotsnews shares a video with a speaker claiming NATO failed to respond to the drone attack on Poland, implying Russian military superiority and NATO weakness. This is clear RF IO (Confidence: HIGH). Старше Эдды shares a photo message reflecting RF internal social conservative narratives, aimed at reinforcing domestic support and criticizing Western values (Confidence: HIGH). Старше Эдды shares a video criticizing modern America, referencing Charlie Kirk as a martyr for traditional values, and hinting at civil war, as part of RF IO to portray Western decline (Confidence: HIGH). Басурин о главном shares a post titled "War with Orthodoxy," suggesting a religious-ideological dimension to the conflict that RF IO will exploit (Confidence: MEDIUM). Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message claiming a political prisoner released by Lukashenko refused to leave Belarus, which can be used to complicate Western narratives on human rights and Lukashenko's intentions (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС provides a graphic summarizing recent RF news, including Rosgvardia receiving tanks, intended for internal consumption to project strength and progress (Confidence: HIGH). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports on Rosgvardia's enhanced capabilities with tanks and increased artillery, intended for internal consumption to project strength (Confidence: HIGH). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on Russian media promoting the spiritual awakening of "SVO participants" after losing limbs and Russia's readiness to become a flagship in prosthetics, framing how the war affects Russians, clearly internal IO (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Slovak PM Fico stated Slovakia rejects the deployment of Western troops in Ukraine, which RF IO will immediately leverage to highlight disunity (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares video alleging Charlie Kirk's murder was AI-generated, framing it as "misinformation" to discredit Western media and sow doubt (Confidence: HIGH). НгП раZVедка shares a photo message commemorating Felix Dzerzhinsky, showcasing capability to leverage historical figures for ideological messaging (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Netherlands found no evidence of Moscow's involvement in Polish drone incident, a direct denial for diplomatic consumption (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports Estonian PM Kallas's prediction that the war will last at least two more years, which RF IO may leverage to suggest the war is stalemated or to reinforce their long-term resolve (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС quotes Maria Zakharova stating Western intimidation and aggressive rhetoric have failed, and Russia has proven the impossibility of canceling Russian culture. This is a clear RF IO narrative of resilience and cultural superiority (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports the rifle used to kill Charlie Kirk was loaded with transgender and anti-fascist engraved cartridges (from WSJ), which RF IO will use to fuel internal US political division and anti-Western narratives (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares a similar photo message and caption explicitly linking the weapon to LGBT and Antifa slogans, further pushing this narrative (Confidence: HIGH). Рыбарь reports "sabotage" in Germany again, using the German flag with fire emojis, which is RF IO to portray Western instability (Confidence: HIGH). Воин DV shares a photo message celebrating specialists of the RF Armed Forces' educational work bodies, a clear internal IO effort to boost morale and justify the conflict (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Russia's MFA received advance notice from Japan's embassy about the liquidation of "Japanese Centers" and that inspections revealed numerous violations. This is RF IO to portray Japan as hostile and justify actions against its cultural institutions (Confidence: HIGH). Fighterbomber shares a photo of a banner with "We are for Russia," implying internal support and unity (Confidence: LOW - military significance). Рыбарь posts about "Nikol spiritual returning," a cryptic political message likely related to Armenian domestic politics, which RF IO could leverage (Confidence: LOW). Операция Z (citing Военкоры Русской Весны) reports the EU's supreme representative stated the war in Ukraine will continue for at least two more years, which RF IO will leverage to portray a protracted conflict (Confidence: HIGH). Военкор Котенок reports the "Krivoy Rog schlemiel-narcofuehrer" (Zelenskyy) is cynically dragonizing Poles after drones in their airspace, portraying Ukraine as manipulative and aggressive (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports FBI is asking for public assistance to identify a figure related to the Charlie Kirk murder, which RF IO will continue to use to amplify internal US divisions (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message implying a "churka" (derogatory term for non-Slavic individuals) was the shooter, further fueling racial and political division in the US narrative (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares a message expressing outrage at Netanyahu's actions, labeling them as "barbaric" and "state terrorism." This indicates RF's capability to leverage international events for highly charged anti-Western/anti-Israel IO (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA reports Zelenskyy stated that the penetration of Russian drones into Polish airspace was not accidental, reinforcing the deliberate nature of the RF hybrid operation (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that Ukraine has "finally recognized the first marriage between two men," and uses this to push social conservative narratives, criticizing Ukraine's alignment with Western values (Confidence: HIGH). Рыбарь shares a photo message with the caption "Well, everyone ran, and so did we," clearly attempting to portray UAF forces as fleeing or demoralized, serving as direct RF IO (Confidence: HIGH). НгП раZVедка's message "Why are you sitting, open the green sparkling wine, there's a reason to drink," likely celebrating a perceived RF success, possibly referring to Katerynivka or Sosnovka (Confidence: MEDIUM). Kotsnews shares a photo message for "Evening Bell" with an image of a destroyed military vehicle, potentially a tank or armored personnel carrier, amidst rubble and smoke in an urban environment (Confidence: HIGH). The image includes the pro-Russian "Z" symbol on the vehicle, suggesting it is RF BDA of a UAF vehicle, or RF propaganda. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a photo message "Archangel Spetsnaz now in MAX!" (Confidence: LOW - military significance). Colonelcassad shares photos of an UAZ "Bukhanka" vehicle being prepared for the 135th Assault Battalion of the "Vostok" Group of Forces, supported by subscribers and the Baikal Tactical Group (Confidence: HIGH). This indicates continued volunteer support for RF forces and logistical efforts. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing a battlefield with significant destruction, cratered ground, damaged vegetation, and several individuals in military uniform, some moving, others incapacitated or deceased. The video also shows what appears to be an explosion and secondary explosions, with later segments showing statistics related to 'sent home' or destroyed enemy combatants (Confidence: HIGH). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares photo messages indicating projects "Faith in the SVO" and "History of one task" are being featured on federal channels (Confidence: LOW - military significance). Colonelcassad shares photos related to the FBI investigation into the Charlie Kirk murder, including photos of the suspect and the rifle (Confidence: HIGH). This confirms RF's continued use of this event for IO. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of a young boy at a Russian youth event, discussing his father's military service and handling a firearm (Confidence: HIGH). This is a clear RF IO effort to indoctrinate youth into military culture and prepare them for service, using children in propaganda to normalize conflict. НгП раZVедка shares a photo implying a Pole is unwelcoming to Ukrainians (Confidence: HIGH). This is a targeted RF IO message to sow discord between Poland and Ukraine.
• Friendly Forces (UAF):
  • Ground Forces: UAF maintains a strong defensive posture, repelling 130 RF attacks across all major axes. UAF drone operators from "Spartan" brigade are liquidating small RF infantry groups on the Pokrovsk direction. UAF thwarted a Russian breakthrough attempt in Sumy Oblast with drones and remote mining. Ukrainian resistance agents ("ATESH") have conducted a successful sabotage operation against an RF air defense plant in Tula. STERNENKO: Video shows drone attacks targeting Russian military equipment on the Kostiantynivka direction, indicating a new mechanized offensive by RF and active UAF counter-drone operations, with a call for donations to support drone procurement. Оперативний ЗСУ: Video highlights the "Lyubart" brigade (20th Brigade, 1st Azov Corps of the National Guard of Ukraine), featuring soldiers in tactical gear, a stylized skull logo, and a DJI Mavic 3 Pro drone, indicating an active, elite unit with modern equipment. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows compilation of "waiting drones" actively targeting RF elements. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) reports a meeting with families of "Azov" Regiment fighters, indicating continued support for POW families. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА provides a photo message of drones being sent to the front, including banners with "ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE" and "ACIEM INDURAVIT," demonstrating continued resupply and unit identity (Confidence: HIGH). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video commemorating the 2022 liberation of territory up to the state border by the Khartia unit (127th Brigade of Territorial Defense), reinforcing UAF successes and morale (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ reports a UAF kamikaze drone clearing a roadblock with three FPV "waiting drones," demonstrating effective UAF counter-drone and offensive drone tactics (Confidence: HIGH). STERNENKO shares video of Ukrainian special forces destroying an RF BMD-3 in Zaporizhzhia direction (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video showing a traumatic amputation of a hand, attributed to a drone drop, with 'Omega 5' insignia indicating a Ukrainian special forces unit (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video compilation of FPV drone ambushes on enemy vehicles and manpower, confirming active UAF FPV drone operations (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a Ukrainian military operation, using drone footage from an aerial perspective. It shows a camouflaged position in a wooded area with a D-30 122mm howitzer being loaded and fired. The video also shows a series of artillery strikes with visible explosions, indicating successful engagement or attempted engagement of enemy positions (Confidence: HIGH). This demonstrates UAF artillery capabilities. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video from a drone's perspective, likely a reconnaissance or strike drone, showing thermal imaging of personnel and potential targets, direct strikes resulting in explosions, and general landscape views. 'X' markers with numbers suggest an ongoing operation or a series of observed events. Russian flags on targets indicate engagement with Russian forces. The video contains a QR code and bank transfer details, suggesting a call for donations (Confidence: HIGH). This highlights ongoing UAF drone operations against RF targets.
  • Air Defense: UAF Air Force reports a 94% interception rate for the latest massed attack (62 of 66 UAVs). PVO of the 3rd Assault Brigade shot down 609 UAVs in August. New drone group over Chernihiv is being tracked. Guided aerial bombs inbound to eastern Kharkiv Oblast. Ukraine and Britain will jointly produce "Project Octopus" interceptor drones in thousands per month. Басурин о главном claims Russian holding Rosele (Rostec) has begun supplying modernized anti-drone systems, indicating RF efforts to counter UAF drone superiority. Confirmed (Оперативний ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Николаевский Ванёк, Операция Z): Major Oleksandr Borovyk, a pilot of the 39th Tactical Aviation Brigade, was killed on September 11, 2025, around 13:30, in the Zaporizhzhia direction while performing a combat mission on a Su-27 aircraft. This confirms a loss of a UAF pilot and a critical aircraft. STERNENKO reports 20 enemy drones shot down by HUR MOD specialists (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of Shahed drone debris in Odesa, indicating a successful UAF interception or a drone malfunction over a populated area (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV south of Zaporizhzhia, moving towards the city, indicating active UAF air defense tracking (Confidence: HIGH). Zelenskiy / Official, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 all share statements from President Zelenskyy on the ineffectiveness of Patriot/SAMP/T systems against cheap drones and the need for a comprehensive, cost-effective approach (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a reconnaissance UAV in central Chernihiv Oblast (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues an "Attention!" alert, confirming active air defense (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV south of Odesa, indicating continued air defense tracking (Confidence: HIGH).
  • Naval Forces: CRITICAL: GUR special forces successfully struck an RF Black Sea Fleet vessel (Project MPSV07) near Novorossiysk, severely damaging it and rendering it inoperable.
  • Diplomatic/International Engagement: Zelenskiy has engaged in high-level diplomatic calls with Polish PM Tusk, UK PM Starmer, Italian PM Meloni, and NATO Secretary-General Rutte following the Polish drone incursions. Sweden is urgently sending additional aircraft and air defense assets to Poland. Netherlands Minister of Defense Brekelmans announced deployment of a layered air defense system to Poland by year-end. Poland is urgently requesting more air defense from NATO, specifically Patriot systems. The US Congress has approved nearly $900 billion in defense spending for 2026, with $400 million allocated to Ukraine's military aid. РБК-Україна: Sweden has provided its 20th package of military aid to Ukraine. РБК-Україна: Hungarian Foreign Minister accused Kyiv of worsening relations between the two countries, indicating diplomatic friction. РБК-Україна: Lukashenko released 52 more political prisoners. Confirmed (Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO): Sweden has announced a 20th military aid package of $836 million to Ukraine, and plans to allocate $4.276 billion annually for 2026-2027. TASS reports Britain and France offered to send Eurofighter and Rafale fighters to Poland in connection with the drone incident. Confirmed (РБК-Україна): Ukraine has reacted to the "cynical statement" by the Slovakian Foreign Minister regarding drones in Poland, indicating ongoing diplomatic efforts to counter RF narratives and maintain international unity. Confirmed (Colonelcassad): US to lift some sanctions on Belarus, including "Belavia," indicating a shift in US diplomatic engagement with Belarus. Confirmed (ТАСС): Polish FM Radoslaw Sikorski emotionally urged Poles not to visit Russia and Belarus. (Confidence: HIGH)** ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ report Poland is massing 40,000 troops to its borders with Russia and Belarus (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Ukrainian military personnel will train Polish military personnel on drone interception (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports Ukraine and Hungary have agreed on the agenda for a dialogue, indicating continued diplomatic engagement despite previous friction (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports US Energy Minister Chris Wright stated the US aims to reduce Russian gas supplies to Europe to zero, replacing them with US energy resources (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ shares Estonian PM Kallas's prediction that the war will last at least two more years (Confidence: HIGH). Zelenskiy / Official and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 share President Zelenskyy's statements on the upcoming UN General Assembly meetings, including the International Crimea Platform and an event on abducted Ukrainian children (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС confirms that Poland will deploy 40,000 troops to the border with Belarus in the coming days, citing Polish Deputy Minister of Defense Cezary Tomczyk, linking it to the "West-2025" military exercises (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна shares a photo message stating that Britain and France want to strengthen NATO's eastern flank with Rafale and Eurofighter jets (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports France will send three Rafale fighters to patrol NATO's "eastern flank" after the drone incident in Poland (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports that Slovakia is considering mandatory military service due to the war in Ukraine and Hungary's PM Orban (Confidence: HIGH). Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 and Оперативний ЗСУ share video of President Zelenskyy meeting with US Special Representative General Keith Kellogg (Confidence: HIGH). This indicates high-level diplomatic engagement and continued US support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of President Zelenskyy meeting with US Ambassador Bridget Brink and US Special Representative General Keith Kellogg (Confidence: HIGH). This confirms continued high-level US diplomatic support. Zelenskiy / Official shares video and photos of a meeting with Danish, Finnish, and Estonian officials (Confidence: HIGH). This highlights continued high-level diplomatic engagement from key European partners.
  • IO: UAF is actively reporting on RF attacks, BDA, and UAF successes, countering RF narratives. Zelenskiy's official channel explicitly stated the drone movement into Poland was deliberate. Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦: Photos of President Zelenskyy with Finnish President Alexander Stubb at a press conference, indicating strong diplomatic ties and international support. Confirmed (Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"): Video shows civilians and military personnel displaying Ukrainian flags and a "We Stand With Ukraine" banner, suggesting a morale-boosting event or show of solidarity. Confirmed (Оперативний ЗСУ): Report on an arrest in Shargorod for the murder of two children, indicating transparency and focus on internal security/justice during wartime. Confirmed (Офіс Генерального прокурора): Court selected a pre-trial restraint for NABU official suspected of inaccurate property declaration. This demonstrates continued efforts against corruption. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦): Video of a woman discussing her son's death in the war, framing it as a "feat" and "transition." This could be a UAF IO opportunity to highlight the human cost of the war and the resilience of Ukrainian people. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС): Video of neglected graves of fallen Russian soldiers in Krasnoyarsk Krai, Russia. This is a significant UAF IO opportunity to expose RF's disregard for its soldiers and their families, impacting RF morale. (Confidence: HIGH) STERNENKO announces the "Man in the Military" award for military leaders in Ukraine, encouraging nominations, a clear UAF IO effort to boost morale and recognize valor (Confidence: HIGH). Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими reports a meeting with families of 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade defenders who are POWs or missing, demonstrating continued state support and transparency, which boosts morale (Confidence: HIGH). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video commemorating the 2022 liberation of territory up to the state border by the Khartia unit, reinforcing UAF successes and national pride (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photos of officials working in Zaporizhzhia, demonstrating governmental presence and reconstruction efforts, reinforcing stability and commitment (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports a new suspicion against a former minister from Yanukovych's time, reinforcing accountability (Confidence: HIGH). Офіс Генерального прокурора states they cannot provide tactical analysis of an image depicting a conference, indicating a focus on formal legal communication (Confidence: LOW). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА provides an update on the operational situation in Kharkiv Oblast via "United News," detailing shelling, restoration efforts, evacuations, and civilian casualties, demonstrating transparent communication (Confidence: HIGH). Олександр Вілкул provides a briefing summarizing the day's events, indicating continued transparent communication from UAF (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports several released Belarusian political prisoners refuse to be expelled to Lithuania, a development that complicates Lukashenko's narrative of "goodwill" and can be leveraged by UAF IO (Confidence: HIGH). Zelenskiy / Official and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 share President Zelenskyy's statement comparing the drone incursions into Poland to the annexation of Crimea by "green men," framing it as a deliberate act of hybrid warfare (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA reports Zelenskyy stated that the penetration of Russian drones into Polish airspace was not accidental, reinforcing the deliberate nature of the RF hybrid operation (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an "underground" school opened in Vilnyansk, showing adaptive governance and a commitment to children's education despite conflict (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна shares a photo message stating that Trump needs to see that Putin is mocking him, citing Sikorski. This is a UAF-aligned IO effort to highlight RF's perceived disrespect for Western leaders (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a photo message stating that Putin is delighted with the results of the "air defense check" by a swarm of drones in Poland, and The Financial Times writes that this attack pushes him to go further next time. This is a UAF-aligned IO effort to highlight RF's aggressive intentions and the perceived threat to NATO (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Rheinmetall will deploy shell production in a safe region of Ukraine (Confidence: HIGH). This is a significant IO success, highlighting industrial cooperation and strengthening of UAF capabilities. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video featuring Polish FM Sikorski criticizing Putin and urging Trump to recognize Putin's intent to rebuild the Russian empire (Confidence: HIGH). This is strong UAF-aligned IO, reinforcing the threat of RF aggression and calling for unified Western response. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports UAF military personnel are concerned about changes in US aid policy (Confidence: HIGH). This is RF IO aimed at undermining UAF morale and Western support. Два майора shares a photo message criticizing NATO's recruitment for social media roles in Ukraine, framing it as "brainwashing" and aiming to demoralize Ukrainians (Confidence: HIGH). This is clear RF IO. ТАСС, citing Miroshnik, claims UAF units on the Serebryansk direction received direct orders to shoot at civilians (Confidence: HIGH). This is a severe RF IO accusation against UAF. Рыбарь shares a photo message titled "Accidents and Non-Accidents," likely referring to the Polish drone incident and other events, indicating ongoing RF IO to deflect blame and create alternative narratives (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ shares multiple photos from the international exhibition DSEI 2025 in London, promoting Ukraine's engagement with global defense and security industries (Confidence: HIGH). This highlights UAF efforts to secure future capabilities and international partnerships. Zelenskiy / Official shares video and photos of a meeting with Danish, Finnish, and Estonian officials (Confidence: HIGH). This highlights continued strong diplomatic ties. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of President Zelenskyy meeting with US Ambassador Bridget Brink and US Special Representative General Keith Kellogg (Confidence: HIGH). This reinforces strong diplomatic messaging about international support.

1.4. Intelligence Gaps (Confidence: HIGH)

• CRITICAL: What is the specific BDA of the alleged "liberation" of Sosnovka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by the RF "Vostok" Grouping/Russian Army? What UAF units were defending it, and what is the current UAF posture in Velykomykhailivka, which RF claims to be encircling?
• CRITICAL: What specific RF air defense system or air-to-air asset was responsible for the downing of the UAF Su-27 in the Zaporizhzhia direction, and what is the operational impact on UAF air superiority in this sector?
• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA and verified location of the alleged "neutralization of a UAF UAV command post" by a T-90M tank in the Krasny Liman direction (MoD Russia)? What is the impact on UAF drone operations in the area?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific composition, deployment, and operational readiness of the recreated tank units within Rosgvardia, and how does this impact RF's overall ground combat capabilities and tactics (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z)?
• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA and verified location of the alleged "destruction of a UAF UAV control post" by the RF 238th Brigade in Berestok (Народная милиция ДНР)? What is the impact on UAF drone operations in the area?
• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA and specific details of the alleged RF strikes on the Lviv Armored Plant, Lviv Aviation Plant, and other DIB facilities in western Ukraine?
• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA and specific details of the alleged defection of a Russian soldier to the UAF after killing two officers and destroying his position, as reported by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС? What unit was he from, and what actionable intelligence has he provided?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific impact and BDA of the new RF mechanized offensive on the Kostiantynivka direction, as reported by STERNENKO? What RF units are involved, and what UAF forces are counter-attacking?
• CRITICAL: What are the specific capabilities and operational readiness of the 20th Brigade "Lyubart" (1st Azov Corps of the National Guard of Ukraine), as highlighted by Оперативний ЗСУ, particularly regarding their drone capabilities and combat experience?
• CRITICAL: What are the verified details of the alleged detention of Ukrainian citizens in Georgia for attempting to smuggle 2.4 kg of hexogen, as reported by Военкор Котенок? Is there any evidence linking this to UAF operations?
• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA and specific details of the RF air defense upgrade, with Rosgvardia receiving tank and anti-tank guns, self-propelled artillery, and MLRS, as reported by TASS? What is the operational impact on the effectiveness of RF internal security forces on the front lines?
• CRITICAL: What are the specific objectives and implications of the US lifting sanctions on Belarus's "Belavia" and potential renewed diplomatic ties with Belarus (Colonelcassad, ТАСС)? How does this impact Belarusian alignment with RF and the security situation on Ukraine's northern border?
• CRITICAL: What is the BDA and precise location of the M-198 towed howitzer reportedly destroyed by a Lancet drone from the RF 305th Guards Artillery Brigade on the South Donetsk direction (Colonelcassad)? What is the operational impact on UAF artillery support in that sector?
• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA of the battlefield destruction and casualties shown in the БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video, and what specific RF units and engagements are depicted? What is the intelligence value of the "statistics related to 'sent home' or destroyed enemy combatants" presented?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific intelligence value of the "Leopard-1 tank" identified in the Операция Z video, including its operational status and exact location of engagement? What are the capabilities and current operational status of the "BABA-YAGA" drone mentioned?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific impact of the alleged UAF attack on the ZNPP training center (TASS)? What specific UAF units are accused, and what evidence supports the claim?
• CRITICAL: What are the specific security provisions and timeline for Rheinmetall's deployment of shell production in a safe region of Ukraine (РБК-Україна)? What type and volume of shells will be produced, and what is the expected impact on UAF ammunition sustainment?
• CRITICAL: What is the military significance of the "makeshift buggy-like vehicles" and ATV shown in the АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video? Are these modified civilian vehicles for military use, or specific military platforms? What units are operating them, and where were they observed?
• HIGH: What is the specific BDA of the drone footage of the Romanian APR-40 MLRS being hit in Baranovka, Kharkiv Oblast (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)? What is the operational impact on UAF artillery support in the region?
• HIGH: What is the specific BDA and the full impact of the RF assault groups using the "Potok" ("Kursk pipe") method for infiltration on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, as shown in "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video? What are the defensive countermeasures required for such subterranean/culvert-based movements?
• HIGH: What is the specific BDA and the full impact of the RF drone-on-drone combat near Prykolotne, Kharkiv Oblast, as reported by Старше Эдды, Kotsnews, and Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition? What are the capabilities of the UAF interceptor drone, and how effective is it against RF kamikaze drones like "Upyr"?
• HIGH: What are NATO's specific military Rules of Engagement (ROE) and force posture changes following the Article 4 consultation regarding future RF incursions? What are RF's strategic red lines for a direct NATO military response?
• HIGH: What is the strength, composition, and immediate objective of RF second-echelon forces positioned to exploit the Pokrovsk breakthrough?
• HIGH: What is the exact damage assessment and long-term operational impact of the HUR strike on the RF Black Sea Fleet Project MPSV07 vessel near Novorossiysk? How long will repairs take, and how does this affect RF maritime operations in the Black Sea?
• HIGH: What is the full BDA and specific targets of the new enemy UAV groups entering southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast from TOT, heading north/northwest, as reported by UAF Air Force?
• HIGH: What are the specific implications of the Hungarian Foreign Minister's accusations against Kyiv regarding worsening relations between the two countries (РБК-Україна, Операция Z)? How does this impact Ukraine's diplomatic standing and international support?
• HIGH: What is the specific content and strategic implication of the Slovakian Foreign Minister's "cynical statement" on drones in Poland, and Ukraine's reaction to it (РБК-Україна)? How does this impact EU unity and support for Ukraine?
• HIGH: What is the full BDA of the UAF 'Lazar' unit's destruction of the bridge near Nova Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, Russia (Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)? What specific RF logistical routes or assets were impacted, and for how long?
• HIGH: What is the specific composition and disposition of RF forces operating in the Polohy Raion that led to the civilian casualty event (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)?
• HIGH: What is the current operational status of the RF 'Vega' unit operating in the Kotsnews video? What are their specific ISR and targeting capabilities and areas of operation? Are the damaged RF vehicles depicted directly from their operations, or are they archival?
• HIGH: What is the specific composition, equipment, and command structure of the "West-AHMAT" battalion and the 128th Brigade operating in Vovchansk (Kadyrov_95)? What is their operational focus and demonstrated capabilities against UAF positions?
• HIGH: What is the BDA and current UAF posture in Katerynivka, Kleban-Byk, and Pleshcheyevka, following RF claims of "expelling the enemy" and advancing in the Konstantinovka direction (Colonelcassad)?
• HIGH: What is the specific intelligence value of the "Pleasant and meditative selection of FPV ambushes on enemy vehicles and manpower" video shared by Оперативний ЗСУ regarding RF vehicle types, personnel movements, and vulnerabilities to FPV drone attacks?
• HIGH: What is the impact of the increased salary indexation for RF military personnel (ТАСС) on RF morale, recruitment, and retention?
• HIGH: What is the specific BDA of the destroyed military vehicle with the "Z" symbol in the Kotsnews "Evening Bell" photo message? What type of vehicle was it, and where and when was it destroyed?
• HIGH: What is the current operational status and mission of the RF reconnaissance UAV reported in central Chernihiv Oblast (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)?
• HIGH: What is the full BDA and context of the 6 individuals injured in Belgorod Oblast attacks, and what specific UAF units are implicated in the attack on the Pyaterochka supermarket (ASTRA)? What were the weapons used?
• HIGH: What is the full context and strategic implication of the discussions by Leonid Slutsky (ТАСС) comparing the Polish drone situation to MH-17 and Skripal cases? What specific disinformation narratives is RF seeking to establish?
• HIGH: What is the intelligence value of the D-30 122mm howitzer position and artillery barrage shown in the ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video? Can the targets of these strikes be identified?
• HIGH: What is the intelligence value of the "Night Russokiller" drone operation by the 4th BOp "Freedom Force" of the NGU "Rubizh" (Оперативний ЗСУ), including the specific RF targets and BDA of the "15 pig-snouted scum"?
• HIGH: What is the specific intelligence value of the captured "Shark" reconnaissance drone (Colonelcassad), including any technical insights that can be gleaned from its components or design? What RF "Fever" fighters are claimed to have destroyed it?
• HIGH: What is the full context and strategic implication of The Financial Times report cited by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, suggesting Putin is "delighted" by the Polish drone incident and may "go further"? What specific "further" actions are anticipated?
• HIGH: What is the specific BDA and target identification from the thermal imaging drone video from the Kharkiv direction (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)? What RF military positions and vehicles were targeted by UAF artillery?
• HIGH: What is the current disposition and combat effectiveness of RF forces on the Borovskoe direction (Colonelcassad)? What UAF units are currently facing them, and what is the immediate threat posed by RF advances in this sector?
• HIGH: What is the current threat perception in Slovakia regarding the war in Ukraine and Hungarian PM Orban's stance, leading to discussions about mandatory military service (РБК-Україна)? How does this impact NATO cohesion and potential support for Ukraine?
• HIGH: What are the specific concerns and operational impacts of the reported change in US aid policy, as reported by "Военкоры Русской Весны" (Операция Z)? How does this sentiment affect UAF morale and operational planning?
• HIGH: What were the key discussion points and outcomes of President Zelenskyy's meeting with US Special Representative General Keith Kellogg (Zelenskiy / Official, Оперативний ЗСУ, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)? What specific commitments or agreements were made regarding military aid or diplomatic support?
• HIGH: What is the specific impact of the deployment of three Rafale fighters by France to NATO's eastern flank (ТАСС)? How does this bolster regional air defense, and what are the implications for RF hybrid operations?
• HIGH: What are the key elements of the "Accidents and Non-Accidents" analysis by Рыбарь, and what specific narratives is RF attempting to promote regarding the Polish drone incident and other events (Confidence: HIGH)?
• HIGH: What is the current disposition of UAF forces in the Serebryansk direction (ТАСС, Мирошник)? Are there any UAF units that have received or are suspected of receiving orders to shoot at civilians, and what evidence supports this RF claim?
• HIGH: What is the specific intelligence value or BDA from the Shahed drone debris found in Odesa (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)? Can any new technical insights be gleaned from the recovered parts, particularly regarding the extended fuel tanks?
• HIGH: What is the specific BDA and the operational impact of the UAF kamikaze drone strike clearing the roadblock with three FPV "waiting drones" (Оперативний ЗСУ)? What specific RF units or assets were targeted/destroyed?
• HIGH: What is the specific content and strategic implications of Lukashenko's statements thanking Trump for "peace efforts" and pardoning foreign citizens, as reported by Alex Parker Returns? How does this impact the US-Belarus-Russia dynamic?
• HIGH: What is the military significance of the photo message from Alex Parker Returns stating "musical schools in Ukraine to hide their pianos," and does this indicate a specific new RF targeting policy or a general PSYOP to spread fear?
• HIGH: What is the specific content of the combat summary from Сливочный каприз (Sept 7-10), and are there any discernible new RF tactical patterns or BDA from this report?
• HIGH: What is the confirmed BDA for the Ukrainian "Yozhka" drone reportedly shot down near Lyman (WarGonzo)? What are its capabilities, and what was its mission?
• HIGH: What is the context and origin of the video shared by АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА showing damaged vehicles in Primorsky, and is it related to recent military engagements?
• HIGH: What is the specific nature of the internal "sabotage" reported in Germany by Два майора? Is there any evidence linking it to the conflict?
• HIGH: What are the "real reasons" for Russian drones "falling" in Poland, as claimed by "Два майора"? What specific disinformation narratives is RF preparing to disseminate to explain the incursions?
• HIGH: What is the specific content of the combat summary from Сливочный каприз (Sept 7-10), and are there any discernible new RF tactical patterns or BDA from this report?
• HIGH: What is the specific operational context and BDA from the video shared by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS showing RF strikes on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast?
• HIGH: What is the full context and strategic implication of the dialogue between Orban and Zelenskyy, as reported by РБК-Україна, particularly in light of previous Hungarian accusations against Kyiv?
• HIGH: What is the full context and strategic implication of the Alex Parker Returns photo message about a political prisoner refusing to leave Belarus after being pardoned at Trump's request? How does this impact perceptions of Belarusian political prisoners and the US-Belarus relationship?
• HIGH: What are the implications of the reported attack by a UOC priest on military commissars in Cherkasy (Alex Parker Returns) for UAF mobilization efforts, internal security, and RF information operations targeting religious divisions?
• HIGH: What is the specific content of the "ALERT" issued by 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦? Is it an air raid alert, weather warning, or something else that directly impacts military operations?
• HIGH: What is the operational significance of the strike on a "Navoz" (Azov) deployment point in the Sloviansk direction (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)? What unit was targeted and what BDA was achieved?
• HIGH: What is the immediate and long-term impact of the Russian Central Bank raising the dollar exchange rate above ₽85 (ASTRA) on RF's war economy and ability to sustain military operations?
• HIGH: What is the full BDA and current UAF posture in Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)? What RF units were involved in the fighting, and what is the current UAF defensive posture there?
• HIGH: What are the implications of the alleged FPV drone attack by Ukrainian terrorists on a civilian vehicle in Bryansk Oblast (AV БогомаZ)? What is the BDA and what UAF units are implicated?
• HIGH: What is the specific tactical situation in Konstyantynivka - Nelepovka (Сливочный каприз)? What forces are engaged, and what are the immediate objectives?
• HIGH: What is the intelligence value of the celebratory message from НгП раZVедка, and what specific RF success is it likely referencing (Confidence: MEDIUM)?
• HIGH: What is the intelligence value of the UAZ "Bukhanka" vehicle being prepared for the 135th Assault Battalion of the "Vostok" Group of Forces (Colonelcassad)? What does this tell us about RF logistical support and unit capabilities?
• HIGH: What are the specific implications of the Sikorski quote that Putin is mocking Trump (РБК-Україна)? How does this align with current UAF IO goals?
• MEDIUM: What is the specific content of the Russian youth event depicted in the ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video? What are the training objectives, and what specific age groups are involved?
• LOW: What is the significance of "Alaska 2025" agreement continuing in Belarus (Janus Putkonen)? Is this a legitimate intelligence reference or a cryptic, potentially fabricated, claim?
• LOW: What is the intelligence value of the "War with Orthodoxy" post by Басурин о главном beyond its ideological content?
• LOW: What is the intelligence value of the video showing "corrupt Nepalese officials" being evacuated by helicopter (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)?
• LOW: What are the implications of the arrests of former Georgian officials (ТАСС) on corruption charges, for Georgian stability and its potential alignment with Western structures or RF influence?
• LOW: What is the intelligence value of the circulated video of Ksenia Sobchak interviewing Arestovych in London (Военкор Котенок)? Is there any actionable intelligence beyond IO implications?
• LOW: What is the military or political significance of Finland's GDP reportedly collapsing the most in the EU (Janus Putkonen)?
• LOW: What is the military significance of the street scene video in Odesa (Colonelcassad) beyond its potential for IO?
• LOW: What is the significance of the Krasnodar Krai Governor's text message (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)?
• LOW: What is the military significance of the video from Alex Parker Returns showing a street scene with the caption "Avdeevsky sprinter"?
• LOW: What are the implications of the discussions within the RF Central Bank regarding lowering the key interest rate (Новости Москвы)? How might this impact RF's war economy?
• LOW: What is the specific content and military significance of the video from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS depicting military vehicles navigating rough terrain?
• LOW: What is the specific content and strategic implication of Alex Parker Returns' message "Опять обманули! Действие, которое совершил Нетаньяху, является варварским. Это — государственный терроризм. Нас предали." beyond its IO value?
• LOW: What is the military significance or tactical impact of the opening of an "underground" school in Vilnyansk community, Zaporizhzhia Oblast (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)?
• LOW: What is the intelligence value of Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's report on Ukraine recognizing same-sex marriage, beyond its IO value?
• LOW: What is the military significance or tactical impact of the message "Archangel Spetsnaz now in MAX!" from АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА?
• LOW: What is the military significance of the photo message from АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА featuring "Faith in the SVO" and "History of one task" projects on federal channels (Confidence: LOW - military significance)?
• LOW: What is the military significance of the images from the meeting in Zaporizhzhia shared by 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦? (Confidence: LOW).
• LOW: What is the military significance of the DSEI 2025 international exhibition in London, beyond general information sharing? (Confidence: LOW).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (Confidence: HIGH)

• Capabilities:
  • Sustained Ground Offensive with Massed Forces & Expanded Scope: RF demonstrates the capability for sustained, multi-axis ground offensives, achieving localized breakthroughs (Pokrovsk, Siversk, Lyman, Konstantinovka), urban combat, and deploying new robotic systems ('Kur'er'). Confirmed (Рыбарь, TASS, Андрей Марочко): Confirmed capability for new advances and "liberation" in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Sosnovka), a significant expansion of operational scope, with objectives to encircle UAF forces. TASS also reports Rosgvardia has been armed with tank/anti-tank guns, SPGs, and MLRS, and has executed over 60,000 fire missions, indicating a significant combat role for internal security forces on the front. This enhances RF's ground combat capability and firepower. WarGonzo video on "Boby" battalion confirms active RF ground units operating in damaged urban environments, capable of planning and executing assault operations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF aviation actively targeting UAF positions in Stepnohirsk, indicating close air support capability for ground operations. Народная милиция ДНР (238 Brigade) claims to have destroyed a UAF UAV control post in Berestok, demonstrating RF counter-UAV and targeted strike capabilities. Confirmed (MoD Russia): "Terminator" tank support fighting vehicles confirm continued readiness of specialized armored units for combined arms operations. Confirmed (Военкор Котенок): RF Air-Space Forces have the capability to "down" UAF Su-27 aircraft in the Zaporizhzhia direction. (Confidence: HIGH) MoD Russia claims a T-90M Proryv tank of the Zapad Group of Forces neutralized a UAF UAV command post, demonstrating enhanced tank direct fire capabilities against hardened targets (Confidence: HIGH). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports tank units have been recreated within Rosgvardia and artillery firepower significantly increased through heavy weapon expansion, indicating a significant boost in RF ground offensive and support capabilities (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares several photo messages and analysis of Rosgvardia conducting exercises with heavy army equipment, including images of a camouflaged artillery system and a tank firing, corroborating enhanced capabilities (Confidence: HIGH). Воин DV shares a video of combat training for assault groups of the 20th Army, showing soldiers in a live-fire exercise in a woodland environment (Confidence: HIGH). Операция Z (citing Военкоры Русской Весны) further confirms Rosgvardia's enhanced combat potential, including recreated tank units and increased artillery (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo from "Dnepropetrovsk direction" confirms RF ground forces' presence and operational capability in this new salient (Confidence: HIGH). Kotsnews drone footage of 'Vega' unit operations confirms RF's active reconnaissance and engagement capabilities, including detection of UAF assets and manpower (Confidence: HIGH). Kadyrov_95 video demonstrates RF's (specifically "West-AHMAT" battalion) capability to use FPV drones for close-quarters combat and strikes on urban positions (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad reports RF forces have "expelled the enemy from Katerynivka" and continue to advance in the Konstantinovka direction, near Kleban-Byk and Pleshcheyevka, confirming capabilities for sustained local advances (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares video showing a Lancet drone from the 305th Guards Artillery Brigade engaged in counter-battery warfare on the South Donetsk direction, targeting an M-198 towed howitzer. This demonstrates advanced RF counter-battery capabilities (Confidence: HIGH). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing a battlefield with significant destruction, cratered ground, damaged vegetation, and several individuals in military uniform, some moving, others incapacitated or deceased. The video also shows what appears to be an explosion and secondary explosions, with later segments showing statistics related to 'sent home' or destroyed enemy combatants (Confidence: HIGH). This indicates RF capabilities to inflict severe damage on UAF positions. Операция Z shares a compilation of drone footage showcasing the identification and engagement of various enemy assets including a pickup truck, a Leopard-1 tank, artillery, an unknown vehicle, and an antenna, as well as a 'BABA-YAGA' drone and other enemy personnel and equipment. This confirms RF's advanced ISR and targeting capabilities (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad's map overlay on the Borovskoe direction confirms RF ground force advances in this area (Confidence: HIGH). Два майора shares a map confirming "Бои в окрестностях Константиновки" (Fighting in the vicinity of Konstantinovka) (Confidence: HIGH). This reinforces RF capability for sustained ground offensives in key areas. Два майора shares a video showing a wounded soldier receiving medical attention in a mobile medical unit (Confidence: HIGH). This indicates RF capabilities to manage combat casualties and sustain operations. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares video footage of makeshift buggy-like vehicles and an ATV (Confidence: HIGH). This demonstrates RF's capability to use non-standard vehicles for tactical purposes, potentially in reconnaissance or light combat.
  • Overwhelming Long-Range Strike & Air Presence (Escalated Volume): RF maintains overwhelming long-range strike capability (Iskander-K, Shaheds, KABs, cruise missiles), capable of massed, multi-platform, and precision strikes against critical DIB, energy, and national C2 infrastructure. The reported massed strike of 415 UAVs and 43 missiles in the previous period indicates a significantly escalated capability to overwhelm UAF air defenses. Confirmed (Повітряні Силі ЗС України, Colonelcassad): Groups of enemy UAVs are entering southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast from TOT, course - north/northwest. Launches of KABs on Sumy, Northern Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts confirm intent to continue air attacks on infrastructure and civilian areas. Confirmed (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Kotsnews): Video of "Upyr" drone engaging UAF interceptor confirms continued adaptive drone usage and engagement capabilities, and RF claims of interceptor failure. (Confidence: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS details that "Gerbera" drones were equipped with additional fuel tanks, increasing their range, demonstrating RF's capability to extend strike reach for specific objectives (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports sustained artillery and drone strikes on Nikopol region, demonstrating continued capability to suppress and target civilian areas (Confidence: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares video of a significant explosion in Kramatorsk, suggesting RF FPV drone strike capability against urban targets (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV south of Zaporizhzhia, moving towards the city, confirming continued RF drone strike capability (Confidence: HIGH). AV БогомаZ reports Ukrainian FPV drones attacked a civilian vehicle in Bryansk Oblast, which, while attributed to UAF, highlights the capabilities of FPV drones for targeting (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a reconnaissance UAV in central Chernihiv Oblast, confirming continued ISR capabilities (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a thermal imaging drone video showing a series of artillery strikes impacting what appear to be Russian military positions. This demonstrates RF's capability to conduct large-scale artillery strikes (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast, confirming active RF air strike capabilities (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV in northern Kharkiv Oblast, moving southwest, confirming RF's drone offensive capabilities (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV south of Odesa, confirming continued RF drone operations (Confidence: HIGH).
  • Adaptive FPV Drone Operations: RF is increasingly employing FPV drones for specialized tactical roles. STERNENKO: Reports new RF mechanized offensive on Kostiantynivka direction, implying continued RF ground offensive capabilities supported by drones. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares drone footage of a Romanian APR-40 MLRS being hit by a Russian drone in Baranovka, Kharkiv Oblast, demonstrating effective FPV drone targeting against high-value assets (Confidence: HIGH). Kotsnews drone footage of 'Vega' unit operations, including observation and potential targeting, confirms RF's advanced FPV and ISR drone capabilities (Confidence: HIGH). Kadyrov_95 video demonstrates RF's (specifically "West-AHMAT" battalion) capability to use FPV drones for close-quarters combat and strikes on urban positions (Confidence: HIGH).
  • Persistent IO and Cyber Operations (Highly Adaptive): RF maintains a robust capability for multi-layered information warfare, including rapid adaptation to new narratives, highly inflammatory accusations, and efforts to sow discord. Confirmed (Операция Z, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, TASS, РБК-Україна): Immediate and coordinated IO pushing narratives that Zelenskyy is "making excuses" for Polish drones, Lavrov's statement blaming the US for arming Ukraine, Hungarian FM's accusations against Kyiv, and internal suppression of dissent demonstrates highly adaptive and coordinated IO. Confirmed (ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, AV БогомаZ): Reports on Georgian arrests, Arestovych interview, Fico statement, and Bryansk tennis tournament all indicate highly adaptive and opportunistic IO to sow discord, distract, or reinforce internal narratives. Confirmed (Народная милиция ДНР): Active PSYOP encouraging UAF surrenders. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Fighterbomber): RF is capable of generating IO to discredit UAF air defense operations. (Confidence: MEDIUM) Confirmed (Kotsnews): RF is capable of generating IO to sow fear and discord within NATO. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition): RF milbloggers are capable of immediately dismissing statements by Western leaders (e.g., Finnish President Stubb) to maintain their internal narrative of success. (Confidence: HIGH) Kotsnews video with speaker claiming NATO failed to respond to drone attack on Poland is a clear demonstration of RF IO capability to immediately generate and disseminate narratives of Western weakness (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns' photo message implying future strikes on Ukrainian musical schools aligns with this COA as a psychological component (Confidence: MEDIUM). ТАСС reports Slovak PM Fico stated Slovakia rejects the deployment of Western troops in Ukraine, which RF IO will immediately leverage to highlight disunity (Confidence: HIGH). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on internal IO framing the war's impact on Russians (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares video alleging Charlie Kirk's murder was AI-generated, shows intent to discredit Western media (Confidence: HIGH). НгП раZVедка shares a photo message commemorating Felix Dzerzhinsky, showcasing capability to leverage historical figures for ideological messaging (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Netherlands found no evidence of Moscow's involvement in Polish drone incident, a direct denial for diplomatic consumption (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports Estonian PM Kallas's prediction that the war will last at least two more years, which RF IO may leverage to suggest the war is stalemated or to reinforce their long-term resolve (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС quotes Maria Zakharova stating Western intimidation and aggressive rhetoric have failed, and Russia has proven the impossibility of canceling Russian culture. This is a clear RF IO narrative of resilience and cultural superiority (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports the rifle used to kill Charlie Kirk was loaded with transgender and anti-fascist engraved cartridges (from WSJ), which RF IO will use to fuel internal US political division and anti-Western narratives (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares a similar photo message and caption explicitly linking the weapon to LGBT and Antifa slogans, further pushing this narrative (Confidence: HIGH). Рыбарь reports "sabotage" in Germany again, using the German flag with fire emojis, which is RF IO to portray Western instability (Confidence: HIGH). Воин DV shares a photo message celebrating specialists of the RF Armed Forces' educational work bodies, a clear internal IO effort to boost morale and justify the conflict (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Russia's MFA received advance notice from Japan's embassy about the liquidation of "Japanese Centers" and that inspections revealed numerous violations. This is RF IO to portray Japan as hostile and justify actions against its cultural institutions (Confidence: HIGH). Fighterbomber shares a photo of a banner with "We are for Russia," implying internal support and unity (Confidence: LOW - military significance). Рыбарь posts about "Nikol spiritual returning," a cryptic political message likely related to Armenian domestic politics, which RF IO could leverage (Confidence: LOW). Операция Z (citing Военкоры Русской Весны) reports the EU's supreme representative stated the war in Ukraine will continue for at least two more years, which RF IO will leverage to portray a protracted conflict (Confidence: HIGH). Военкор Котенок reports the "Krivoy Rog schlemiel-narcofuehrer" (Zelenskyy) is cynically dragonizing Poles after drones in their airspace, portraying Ukraine as manipulative and aggressive (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports FBI is asking for public assistance to identify a figure related to the Charlie Kirk murder, which RF IO will continue to use to amplify internal US divisions (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message implying a "churka" (derogatory term for non-Slavic individuals) was the shooter, further fueling racial and political division in the US narrative (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares a message expressing outrage at Netanyahu's actions, labeling them as "barbaric" and "state terrorism." This indicates RF's capability to leverage international events for highly charged anti-Western/anti-Israel IO (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA reports Zelenskyy stated that the penetration of Russian drones into Polish airspace was not accidental, reinforcing the deliberate nature of the RF hybrid operation (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that Ukraine has "finally recognized the first marriage between two men," and uses this to push social conservative narratives, criticizing Ukraine's alignment with Western values (Confidence: HIGH). Рыбарь shares a photo message with the caption "Well, everyone ran, and so did we," clearly attempting to portray UAF forces as fleeing or demoralized, serving as direct RF IO (Confidence: HIGH). НгП раZVедка's message "Why are you sitting, open the green sparkling wine, there's a reason to drink," likely celebrating a perceived RF success, possibly referring to Katerynivka or Sosnovka (Confidence: MEDIUM). Kotsnews shares a photo message depicting a destroyed military vehicle with a "Z" symbol, which is RF IO portraying UAF losses or RF success (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Leonid Slutsky stated the drone situation in Poland increasingly resembles the MH-17 incident or the Skripal case, with the West escalating the mythical "Russian threat." This demonstrates RF's capability to generate conspiracy theories and deflect blame (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova stating that Russia urges Poland to consider the consequences of closing its border with Belarus and to reconsider the decision as soon as possible. This indicates RF's capability for diplomatic pressure and IO to influence neighboring states (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна shares a photo message stating that Trump needs to see that Putin is mocking him, citing Sikorski. This is a UAF-aligned IO effort that RF IO will likely counter by portraying Sikorski as anti-Russian (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a photo message stating that Putin is delighted with the results of the "air defense check" by a swarm of drones in Poland, and The Financial Times writes that this attack pushes him to go further next time. This is a UAF-aligned IO effort, but RF IO may leverage the "delight" aspect to portray Putin as strong and decisive (Confidence: HIGH). Военкор Котенок shares a news summary for September 11, 2025, a general RF IO dissemination (Confidence: HIGH). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares photo messages indicating projects "Faith in the SVO" and "History of one task" are being featured on federal channels (Confidence: LOW - military significance). ТАСС, citing Miroshnik, claims UAF units on the Serebryansk direction received direct orders to shoot at civilians (Confidence: HIGH). This is a severe RF IO accusation against UAF. Рыбарь shares a photo message titled "Accidents and Non-Accidents," likely referring to the Polish drone incident and other events, indicating ongoing RF IO to deflect blame and create alternative narratives (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares photos related to the FBI investigation into the Charlie Kirk murder, including photos of the suspect and the rifle (Confidence: HIGH). This confirms RF's continued use of this event for IO. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of a young boy at a Russian youth event, discussing his father's military service and handling a firearm (Confidence: HIGH). This demonstrates RF's capability to indoctrinate youth into military culture and leverage children in propaganda. НгП раZVедка shares a photo implying a Pole is unwelcoming to Ukrainians (Confidence: HIGH). This demonstrates RF's capability to sow discord between allied nations.
  • Naval Attack/Defense Capabilities: While the HUR strike demonstrates UAF's ability to penetrate RF naval defenses, the fact that only four such MPSV07 vessels exist in the RF fleet underscores their operational importance and thus RF's capability (and vulnerability) in maintaining its Black Sea logistics and salvage operations.
  • Counter-UAV Systems: Басурин о главном claims Russian holding Rosele (Rostec) has begun supplying modernized anti-drone systems, indicating an evolving RF capability to counter UAF drone threats. Colonelcassad shares a video of a captured Ukrainian reconnaissance drone ("Shark"), stating it was destroyed by RF "Fever" fighters. This demonstrates RF's capability to identify and eliminate UAF reconnaissance assets (Confidence: HIGH).
  • Space Capabilities: ТАСС reports the launch of a "Progress MS-32" carrier rocket from Baikonur to the ISS, delivering a new spacesuit. This confirms RF's continued space launch capabilities, which, while civilian in this instance, underpins military space assets (Confidence: HIGH).
• Intentions:
  • Achieve Decisive Breakthrough on Pokrovsk Axis and Expand Dnipropetrovsk Offensive (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF's primary intent is to exploit current breakthroughs to gain significant operational depth on the Pokrovsk axis, threatening Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk city. CRITICALLY, RF intends to immediately capitalize on the claimed "liberation" of Sosnovka to establish a new operational salient and attempt to encircle UAF forces in Velykomykhailivka, as stated by TASS. RF also intends to continue pressure on other axes and degrade UAF ground assets. Confirmed (Colonelcassad): Assault on Zarechnoye confirms intent to continue offensive operations and territorial gains on the Lyman direction. Colonelcassad's report of expelling the enemy from Katerynivka and advancing towards Konstantinovka further reinforces RF intent to gain ground on this axis (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video from "enemy publics" showing strikes on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with RF attempting to seize territory to "fix its presence," reinforces RF intent to consolidate and expand the new salient (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo from "Dnepropetrovsk direction" reinforces RF intent to operate and consolidate gains in this new area (Confidence: HIGH). Kadyrov_95's report on "West-AHMAT" battalion operations in Vovchansk indicates RF intent to maintain pressure on urban areas in the Kharkiv direction (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares video showing a Lancet drone targeting an M-198 howitzer, reinforcing RF's intent to degrade UAF artillery (Confidence: HIGH). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing a battlefield with significant destruction and casualties, consistent with an RF intent to achieve decisive tactical results (Confidence: HIGH). Операция Z shares a compilation of drone footage showcasing the identification and engagement of various enemy assets including a Leopard-1 tank and artillery, demonstrating RF intent to target high-value UAF assets (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad's map overlay on the Borovskoe direction confirms RF intent to advance in this area (Confidence: HIGH). Два майора shares a map confirming "Бои в окрестностях Константиновки", reinforcing RF intent for offensive operations (Confidence: HIGH).
  • Degrade Ukrainian Winter Resilience & Overwhelm Air Defenses (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF intends to continue systematic mass strikes against Ukrainian DIB, energy, industrial, and logistical infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's ability to sustain operations through winter and to saturate/overwhelm UAF air defenses. The previous massed air strike directly supports this. Confirmed (Повітряні Силі ЗС України): New drone groups entering Zaporizhzhia and KAB launches on Sumy, Northern Kharkiv, and Donetsk confirm intent to continue air attacks on infrastructure and civilian areas. Confirmed (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Kotsnews): Continued tactical drone-on-drone combat and anti-drone efforts will be a feature. (Confidence: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns' photo message implying future strikes on Ukrainian musical schools aligns with this COA as a psychological component (Confidence: MEDIUM). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video from "enemy publics" showing strikes on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicates continued air/drone strike activity to support ground advances (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS detailing extended range of "Gerbera" drones further reinforces RF intent to conduct deep strikes (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports sustained artillery and drone strikes on Nikopol region, demonstrating clear intent to target and suppress civilian areas (Confidence: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares video of a significant explosion in Kramatorsk, reinforcing intent for urban targeting (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports civilian casualty in Polohy Raion due to enemy attack, reinforcing that this COA includes targeting civilian areas or operate in them (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV south of Zaporizhzhia, moving towards the city, reinforcing intent for drone strikes (Confidence: HIGH). AV БогомаZ reports Ukrainian FPV drones attacked a civilian vehicle in Bryansk Oblast, which, while attributed to UAF, underscores the intent to target objects in border regions (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a reconnaissance UAV in central Chernihiv Oblast, confirming intent to conduct ISR prior to potential strikes (Confidence: HIGH). TASS reports UAF attacked ZNPP training center, reinforcing RF's intent to portray UAF as targeting critical infrastructure (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA reports UAF attacks in Belgorod Oblast causing civilian casualties, which RF will use to justify further strikes and portray UAF as targeting civilians (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a thermal imaging drone video showing a series of artillery strikes impacting what appear to be Russian military positions. This indicates RF intent to continue large-scale artillery strikes (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast, confirming intent for continued air attacks (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV in northern Kharkiv Oblast, moving southwest, confirming intent for continued drone reconnaissance/strike missions (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV south of Odesa, reinforcing intent for drone strikes (Confidence: HIGH).
  • Undermine Western Support and Ukrainian Morale (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF will continue aggressive information operations to discredit UAF, sow distrust, and amplify internal challenges. Confirmed (Операция Z, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, TASS, РБК-Україна): Immediate and coordinated IO pushing narratives that Zelenskyy is "making excuses" for Polish drones, Lavrov's statements, and Hungarian FM's accusations underscores intent to influence Western public opinion and diplomatic efforts. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники: Report on soldier's criminal act creates an IO vulnerability for RF, but also highlights internal issues RF seeks to manage. Confirmed (РБК-Україна): RF will leverage any internal EU disunity (e.g., Slovakian FM's comments on drones) to further undermine support for Ukraine. Confirmed (Народная милиция ДНР): RF intends to undermine UAF morale and encourage desertion. (Confidence: HIGH) Kotsnews video is direct RF IO intended to sow doubt in NATO's capabilities and weaken Western resolve (Confidence: HIGH). Старше Эдды's post and video criticizing Western values and portraying internal US "civil war" show an intent to undermine Western legitimacy and cohesion (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns' statements from Lukashenko thanking Trump for "peace efforts" and pardoning foreign citizens are intended to portray Belarus as a peacemaker and to influence US internal politics (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns' photo message "Договорняка не будет говорили они. А это тогда что?" is intended to sow distrust in Western promises and unity regarding Ukraine (Confidence: MEDIUM). Alex Parker Returns' report on UOC priest attacking military commissars will be heavily exploited to amplify internal Ukrainian divisions and undermine mobilization efforts (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares video alleging Charlie Kirk's murder was AI-generated, shows intent to discredit Western media (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Netherlands found no evidence of Moscow's involvement in Polish drone incident, a denial which will be leveraged by RF IO (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports Estonian PM Kallas's prediction that the war will last at least two more years, which RF IO may leverage to suggest the war is stalemated or to reinforce their long-term resolve (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС quotes Maria Zakharova stating Western intimidation and aggressive rhetoric have failed, and Russia has proven the impossibility of canceling Russian culture. This is a clear RF IO narrative of resilience and cultural superiority (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС and Alex Parker Returns' reporting on the Charlie Kirk murder weapon and alleged ideological links shows intent to exploit US internal divisions and delegitimize political opponents of Russia (Confidence: HIGH). Рыбарь reports "sabotage" in Germany again, using the German flag with fire emojis, which is RF IO to portray Western instability (Confidence: HIGH). Воин DV shares a photo message celebrating specialists of the RF Armed Forces' educational work bodies, a clear internal IO effort to boost morale and justify the conflict (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Russia's MFA received advance notice from Japan's embassy about the liquidation of "Japanese Centers" and that inspections revealed numerous violations. This is RF IO to portray Japan as hostile and justify actions against its cultural institutions (Confidence: HIGH). Fighterbomber shares a photo of a banner with "We are for Russia," implying internal support and unity (Confidence: LOW - military significance). Рыбарь posts about "Nikol spiritual returning," a cryptic political message likely related to Armenian domestic politics, which RF IO could leverage (Confidence: LOW). Операция Z (citing Военкоры Русской Весны) reports the EU's supreme representative stated the war in Ukraine will continue for at least two more years, which RF IO will leverage to portray a protracted conflict (Confidence: HIGH). Военкор Котенок reports the "Krivoy Rog schlemiel-narcofuehrer" (Zelenskyy) is cynically dragonizing Poles after drones in their airspace, portraying Ukraine as manipulative and aggressive (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports FBI is asking for public assistance to identify a figure related to the Charlie Kirk murder, which RF IO will continue to use to amplify internal US divisions (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message implying a "churka" (derogatory term for non-Slavic individuals) was the shooter, further fueling racial and political division in the US narrative (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares a message expressing outrage at Netanyahu's actions, labeling them as "barbaric" and "state terrorism." This indicates RF's intent to leverage international events for highly charged anti-Western/anti-Israel IO (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA reports Zelenskyy stated that the penetration of Russian drones into Polish airspace was not accidental, reinforcing the deliberate nature of the RF hybrid operation (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that Ukraine has "finally recognized the first marriage between two men," and uses this to push social conservative narratives, criticizing Ukraine's alignment with Western values (Confidence: HIGH). Рыбарь shares a photo message with the caption "Well, everyone ran, and so did we," clearly attempting to portray UAF forces as fleeing or demoralized, serving as direct RF IO (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Leonid Slutsky stated the drone situation in Poland increasingly resembles the MH-17 incident or the Skripal case, with the West escalating the mythical "Russian threat." This shows intent to deflect blame and create a counter-narrative (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна shares a photo message stating that Trump needs to see that Putin is mocking him, citing Sikorski. This is a UAF-aligned IO effort that RF IO will likely counter by portraying Sikorski as anti-Russian (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a photo message stating that Putin is delighted with the results of the "air defense check" by a swarm of drones in Poland, and The Financial Times writes that this attack pushes him to go further next time. This is a UAF-aligned IO effort, but RF IO may leverage the "delight" aspect to portray Putin as strong and decisive (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova stating that Russia urges Poland to consider the consequences of closing its border with Belarus and to reconsider the decision as soon as possible. This indicates RF intent to exert diplomatic pressure on Poland and disrupt regional stability (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС, citing Miroshnik, claims UAF units on the Serebryansk direction received direct orders to shoot at civilians (Confidence: HIGH). This demonstrates intent to severely discredit UAF and portray them as war criminals. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports UAF military personnel are concerned about changes in US aid policy (Confidence: HIGH). This is RF IO aimed at undermining UAF morale and Western support. Два майора shares a photo message criticizing NATO's recruitment for social media roles in Ukraine, framing it as "brainwashing" and aiming to demoralize Ukrainians (Confidence: HIGH). This is clear RF IO. Рыбарь shares a photo message titled "Accidents and Non-Accidents," indicating RF's intent to deflect blame and sow doubt regarding various incidents (Confidence: HIGH). НгП раZVедка shares a photo implying a Pole is unwelcoming to Ukrainians (Confidence: HIGH). This is a targeted RF IO message to sow discord between Poland and Ukraine.
  • Sustained Probing of NATO Air Defenses with Hybrid Warfare Elements (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF intends to continue launching UAVs into or towards NATO member states' airspace to test response thresholds and sow discord. The summoning of the Russian ambassador by Netherlands MFA indicates RF actions are having direct diplomatic consequences, which RF will leverage for IO. The confirmation of drones in Lithuania suggests a broadening of these probing actions. Poland massing 40,000 troops to its borders with Russia and Belarus indicates NATO is taking RF probing seriously, which RF will use to frame NATO as escalatory (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS detailing extended range "Gerbera" drones further reinforces RF intent to conduct deep probes (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA confirms Polish deployment of 40,000 troops, reinforcing RF's justification for IO to frame NATO as escalatory (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Sweden's MFA summoned the Russian ambassador, further confirming intent to continue probing and creating diplomatic friction with NATO states (Confidence: HIGH). TASS confirms Poland's deployment of 40,000 troops to the border with Belarus, reinforcing the perceived escalation from an RF perspective (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Leonid Slutsky stated the drone situation in Poland increasingly resembles the MH-17 incident or the Skripal case, with the West escalating the mythical "Russian threat." This indicates a continued COA of deflecting blame and creating counter-narratives (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a photo message stating that Putin is delighted with the results of the "air defense check" by a swarm of drones in Poland, and The Financial Times writes that this attack pushes him to go further next time. This reinforces RF's intent to escalate hybrid warfare against NATO (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports France will send three Rafale fighters to patrol NATO's "eastern flank" after the drone incident in Poland (Confidence: HIGH). This indicates RF intent to continue probing given the reinforcement of NATO air defenses. ASTRA and РБК-Україна report France sending three Rafale fighters to Poland. This is a direct response to RF probing and indicates RF intent to continue such actions.
  • Maintain Internal Stability and Project Strength (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF will continue internal propaganda to maintain domestic stability. TASS: Rosgvardia's expanded role and reported combat missions will be used to project strength and internal security. Воин DV promoting Far Eastern Military Academy status, TASS listing Bykov as terrorist/extremist, and Zakharova's comments on Pugacheva's interview are all aimed at internal control and narrative. Confirmed (AV БогомаZ): Continued internal IO through "patriotic" events like the Bryansk tennis tournament to boost morale and reinforce historical narratives. ТАСС confirming "Армия России" stores are not closing reinforces the image of military strength and normalcy (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС provides a graphic summarizing recent RF news, including Rosgvardia receiving tanks, intended for internal consumption to project strength and progress (Confidence: HIGH). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports on Rosgvardia's enhanced capabilities with tanks and increased artillery, intended for internal consumption to project strength (Confidence: HIGH). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on internal IO framing the war's impact on Russians (Confidence: HIGH). Воин DV shares a video of combat training for assault groups of the 20th Army, showing continued efforts to boost morale and project strength (Confidence: HIGH). НгП раZVедка shares a photo message commemorating Felix Dzerzhinsky, reinforcing historical figures for ideological purposes (Confidence: HIGH). Воин DV celebrating RF educational work specialists is an example of internal IO intended to boost morale and reinforce the legitimacy of the military (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports on Japan's centers closure due to "violations," used to project state control and protect against perceived foreign influence (Confidence: HIGH). Fighterbomber shares a photo of a banner with "We are for Russia," implying internal support and unity (Confidence: LOW - military significance). ТАСС reports on a successful space launch to the ISS, a clear internal IO effort to project Russian scientific and technological prowess and distract from the conflict (Confidence: HIGH). Новости Москвы video trailer for a TV series, while fictional, serves to entertain and distract the population, contributing to normalcy (Confidence: HIGH). TASS reports the Russian Cabinet of Ministers increased military personnel salaries, clearly demonstrating an intent to maintain morale and retention (Confidence: HIGH). Военкор Котенок shares a news summary for September 11, 2025, which serves as a general RF internal IO tool (Confidence: HIGH). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares photo messages indicating projects "Faith in the SVO" and "History of one task" are being featured on federal channels (Confidence: LOW - military significance). ТАСС shares photo messages of the Russian Geographical Society photo contest winners, a clear internal IO effort to promote national identity and soft power (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of a young boy at a Russian youth event, discussing his father's military service and handling a firearm (Confidence: HIGH). This demonstrates RF intent to indoctrinate youth into military culture and prepare them for service.
  • Leverage Diplomatic Openings (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): RF intends to exploit any perceived cracks in Western unity or new diplomatic initiatives, such as the US lifting sanctions on "Belavia," to improve its international standing or secure concessions. Confirmed (Басурин о главном): RF intends to exploit US domestic political discussions (e.g., Jackson-Vanik amendment) for IO purposes. (Confidence: MEDIUM) Lukashenko's statements thanking Trump for "peace efforts" and pardoning foreign citizens are direct actions in this COA to gain diplomatic leverage and influence US policy (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns' "Договорняка не будет говорили они. А это тогда что?" indicates RF IO is already exploiting perceptions of a "deal" (Confidence: MEDIUM). ТАСС reports the US Treasury Department issued a general license for financial transactions with Belarusian airline "Belavia" and its subsidiaries. This confirms RF intent to exploit diplomatic openings to reduce impact of sanctions and improve international standing (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports three Polish citizens and eight Belarusians cooperating with Polish media were among the 52 prisoners released by Lukashenko, confirming RF's intent to leverage such events for diplomatic maneuvering and to soften international opinion (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Vladimir Tarabrin, Russian Ambassador to the Netherlands, stated that any new sanctions against Russia by the Netherlands would receive an adequate and immediate response from Moscow. This indicates RF's intent to deter further sanctions and maintain diplomatic leverage (Confidence: HIGH).
• Courses of Action (COA):
  • MLCOA 1: Intensify Ground Offensive on Pokrovsk Axis and Exploit Dnipropetrovsk Offensive (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF main effort will remain the exploitation of the Pokrovsk breakthrough. Expect attempts to consolidate gains in Muravka, deepen penetration into Pokrovsk urban areas, and commit reserves to widen the salient, pushing towards Udachnoye. CRITICALLY, expect RF to immediately capitalize on the claimed "liberation" of Sosnovka to establish a new operational salient and attempt to encircle UAF forces in Velykomykhailivka, supported by aviation and potentially newly equipped Rosgvardia units. RF will continue pressure on Stepnohirsk. Continued high-tempo probing attacks across other axes will aim to fix UAF reserves. Continued new mechanized offensives in directions like Kostiantynivka are highly probable. Confirmed (Colonelcassad): Continued offensive on Lyman direction, with assaults on Zarechnoye. Colonelcassad's report of expelling the enemy from Katerynivka and advancing towards Konstantinovka further confirms this COA (Confidence: HIGH). MoD Russia's claim of neutralizing a UAF UAV command post by a T-90M tank in Krasny Liman direction suggests an ongoing effort to degrade UAF C2 to facilitate ground advances (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video from "enemy publics" showing strikes on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast confirms offensive intent and actions in this new salient (Confidence: HIGH). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports tank units recreated within Rosgvardia will bolster this ground offensive capability (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns' analysis of Rosgvardia exercises further supports this (Confidence: HIGH). Воин DV's video of assault group training confirms readiness for such operations (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports a strike on a "Navoz" deployment point in the Sloviansk direction, indicating continued tactical strikes (Confidence: MEDIUM). Операция Z (citing Военкоры Русской Весны) further confirms Rosgvardia's enhanced combat potential for ground offensives (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports sustained artillery and drone strikes on Nikopol region (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo from "Dnepropetrovsk direction" reinforces RF intent for sustained operations in this new salient (Confidence: HIGH). Kotsnews drone footage of 'Vega' unit operations suggests continued reconnaissance and targeting of UAF positions to support ground advances (Confidence: HIGH). Kadyrov_95 video confirms "West-AHMAT" battalion operating with FPV drones in Vovchansk, supporting sustained pressure on this urban area (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares video showing a Lancet drone targeting an M-198 towed howitzer. This indicates a focus on degrading UAF artillery to support ground advances (Confidence: HIGH). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing extensive battlefield destruction and casualties, consistent with an intensified ground offensive (Confidence: HIGH). Операция Z shares a compilation of drone footage showcasing the identification and engagement of various enemy assets, indicating continued RF efforts to clear UAF resistance for ground advances (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad's map overlay on the Borovskoe direction confirms RF's intention to maintain offensive pressure on this axis (Confidence: HIGH). Два майора shares a map confirming "Бои в окрестностях Константиновки", reinforcing RF's commitment to this offensive (Confidence: HIGH).
  • MLCOA 2: Sustained Massed Air Strikes on DIB, Critical, and Civilian Infrastructure (HIGH CONFIDENCE): After a potential short regeneration period from the previous mass strike, RF will resume high-volume Shahed UAV and missile strikes, with a particular focus on degrading Ukrainian DIB and critical energy infrastructure. These strikes will be designed to overwhelm UAF air defenses. Confirmed (Повітряні Силі ЗС України): Expect new UAV groups entering southern Zaporizhzhia and KAB launches on Sumy, Northern Kharkiv, and Donetsk, indicating continued air campaign intensity against both front-line and border regions, likely supported by modernized anti-drone systems. Confirmed (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Kotsnews): Continued tactical drone-on-drone combat and anti-drone efforts will be a feature. (Confidence: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns' photo message implying future strikes on Ukrainian musical schools aligns with this COA as a psychological component (Confidence: MEDIUM). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video from "enemy publics" showing strikes on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicates continued air/drone strike activity to support ground advances (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS detailing extended range of "Gerbera" drones suggests an enhanced capability for such strikes (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports sustained artillery and drone strikes on Nikopol region (Confidence: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares video of a significant explosion in Kramatorsk, indicating continued FPV drone strikes on urban targets (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports civilian casualty in Polohy Raion due to enemy attack, reinforcing that this COA includes targeting civilian areas (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV south of Zaporizhzhia, moving towards the city, indicating continued drone strike operations (Confidence: HIGH). AV БогомаZ reports Ukrainian FPV drones attacked a civilian vehicle in Bryansk Oblast, which, if confirmed, would indicate a continued targeting of border regions (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a reconnaissance UAV in central Chernihiv Oblast, indicating continued ISR prior to potential strikes (Confidence: HIGH). TASS reports UAF attacked ZNPP training center, which RF will use to justify further strikes on infrastructure (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA reports UAF attacks in Belgorod Oblast causing civilian casualties, which RF will use to justify further strikes on civilian targets in Ukraine (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a thermal imaging drone video showing a series of artillery strikes impacting what appear to be Russian military positions. This indicates continued large-scale fire missions (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast, indicating continued air campaign intensity (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV in northern Kharkiv Oblast, moving southwest (towards Kharkiv), indicating continued drone strike operations against border regions and urban centers (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV south of Odesa, indicating continued drone strike operations (Confidence: HIGH).
  • MLCOA 3: Escalated Hybrid Operations Against NATO (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF will continue deliberate drone incursions into Polish, Latvian, and Lithuanian airspace, particularly targeting areas near critical logistics hubs and military installations (e.g., Rzeszów). They will utilize a mix of "Gerbera" decoys and combat Shaheds to test NATO's ROE, gather ISR, and generate diplomatic/political friction. Expect continued aggressive IO to deflect blame and mock NATO's response. The summoning of the Russian ambassador by Netherlands MFA will be met with further denials and counter-IO. RF will exploit offers of fighter jets to Poland to frame NATO as escalatory. Confirmed (ТАСС): RF will use Polish FM Sikorski's statements for IO purposes, framing them as escalatory. (Confidence: HIGH) Kotsnews video is an example of direct RF IO attempting to frame NATO's response as weak, which will be part of this COA (Confidence: HIGH). Poland massing 40,000 troops to its borders with Russia and Belarus will be used by RF IO to portray NATO escalation (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS outlining extended range "Gerbera" drones and their objective to close Rzeszow airbase further confirms this COA (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA confirms Polish deployment of 40,000 troops, reinforcing this COA (Confidence: HIGH). ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 confirms Poland's troop deployment (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Sweden's MFA summoned the Russian ambassador, indicating continued diplomatic friction stemming from these hybrid operations (Confidence: HIGH). TASS confirms Poland's deployment of 40,000 troops to the border with Belarus, reinforcing RF's narrative of NATO escalation (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Leonid Slutsky stated the drone situation in Poland increasingly resembles the MH-17 incident or the Skripal case, with the West escalating the mythical "Russian threat." This indicates a continued COA of deflecting blame and creating counter-narratives (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a photo message stating that Putin is delighted with the results of the "air defense check" by a swarm of drones in Poland, and The Financial Times writes that this attack pushes him to go further next time. This reinforces the COA of escalating hybrid warfare against NATO (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova stating that Russia urges Poland to consider the consequences of closing its border with Belarus and to reconsider the decision as soon as possible. This indicates a COA of applying diplomatic pressure and sowing discord (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports France will send three Rafale fighters to patrol NATO's "eastern flank" after the drone incident in Poland (Confidence: HIGH). This deployment of NATO air assets will likely be met with continued RF probing and IO. ASTRA and РБК-Україна report France sending three Rafale fighters to Poland. This confirms the likelihood of continued probing and NATO reinforcement.
  • MLCOA 4: Enhanced IO to Undermine Ukrainian/Western Cohesion (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF will aggressively push narratives blaming Ukraine for the Polish drone incursions (with new narratives implicating Baltic states), justifying the SMO as a "humanitarian mission," amplifying alleged Western hypocrisy/disunity, and exploiting internal RF social issues. Confirmed (Операция Z, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, РБК-Україна): Immediate IO around Zelenskyy's statements, Lavrov's comments, and Hungarian FM's accusations will aim to sow discord and deflect blame. Internal IO will continue to suppress dissent (e.g., Bykov, Pugacheva) and promote military strength and morale (e.g., military academy status, veteran support). Confirmed (ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, РБК-Україна, AV БогомаZ): Continued exploitation of Georgian political events, Arestovych interview, Slovakian FM's statements, and Fico's comments to sow discord. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Народная милиция ДНР): Continued PSYOP to undermine UAF morale. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition): RF milbloggers will continue to dismiss critical statements from Western leaders. (Confidence: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns' statements from Lukashenko thanking Trump for "peace efforts" will be used to influence US public opinion and create perceived divisions (Confidence: HIGH). Старше Эдды's post and video criticizing Western values and portraying internal US "civil war" will continue to be amplified (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns' photo message "Договорняка не будет говорили они. А это тогда что?" is a direct attempt to sow distrust (Confidence: MEDIUM). Alex Parker Returns' report on UOC priest attacking military commissars will be heavily exploited to portray internal Ukrainian strife and undermine state authority (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Slovak PM Fico stated Slovakia rejects the deployment of Western troops in Ukraine, which RF IO will leverage (Confidence: HIGH). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on internal IO framing the war's impact on Russians (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares video alleging Charlie Kirk's murder was AI-generated, showing intent to discredit Western media (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Netherlands found no evidence of Moscow's involvement in Polish drone incident, a denial which will be leveraged by RF IO (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports Estonian PM Kallas's prediction that the war will last at least two more years, which RF IO may leverage to suggest the war is stalemated or to reinforce their long-term resolve (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС quotes Maria Zakharova stating Western intimidation failing, reinforcing aggressive IO and narratives of resilience (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС and Alex Parker Returns' reporting on the Charlie Kirk murder weapon and alleged ideological links demonstrates RF's intent to exploit US internal political divisions for IO (Confidence: HIGH). Рыбарь's "sabotage" in Germany report will be used to portray Western instability (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns' photo message "Куда хохла не целуй - везде жопа. И так у них всегда." is a dehumanizing IO message that will continue to be pushed (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports on Japan's centers closure due to "violations," showing intent to use allegations to justify actions against foreign cultural institutions and sow distrust (Confidence: HIGH). Операция Z (citing Военкоры Русской Весны) reports the EU's supreme representative stated the war in Ukraine will continue for at least two more years, which RF IO will leverage to portray a protracted conflict (Confidence: HIGH). Военкор Котенок reports the "Krivoy Rog schlemiel-narcofuehrer" (Zelenskyy) is cynically dragonizing Poles, which RF IO will use to create divisions (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports FBI is asking for public assistance to identify a figure related to the Charlie Kirk murder, which RF IO will continue to use to amplify internal US divisions (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message implying a "churka" was the shooter, further fueling racial and political division in the US narrative (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares a message expressing outrage at Netanyahu's actions, consistent with RF intent to leverage international events for highly charged anti-Western IO (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA reports Zelenskyy stated the drone incursions were not accidental, which indicates RF's intent to respond with counter-IO (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's report on Ukraine recognizing same-sex marriage is a clear RF IO attempt to sow social conservative discord and criticize Ukraine's alignment with Western values (Confidence: HIGH). Рыбарь's photo message with the caption "Well, everyone ran, and so did we" reinforces RF intent to generate demoralizing IO against UAF (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Leonid Slutsky stated the drone situation in Poland increasingly resembles the MH-17 incident or the Skripal case, with the West escalating the mythical "Russian threat." This indicates a COA of generating conspiracy theories and deflecting blame (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна shares a photo message stating that Trump needs to see that Putin is mocking him, citing Sikorski. This indicates a COA of exploiting perceived RF disrespect for Western leaders to sow discord (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a photo message stating that Putin is delighted with the results of the "air defense check" by a swarm of drones in Poland, and The Financial Times writes that this attack pushes him to go further next time. This reinforces the COA of escalating hybrid warfare and using IO to justify it (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova stating that Russia urges Poland to consider the consequences of closing its border with Belarus and to reconsider the decision as soon as possible. This indicates a COA of diplomatic pressure and IO (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС, citing Miroshnik, claims UAF units on the Serebryansk direction received direct orders to shoot at civilians (Confidence: HIGH). This is a clear COA to undermine Ukrainian/Western cohesion by accusing UAF of war crimes. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports UAF military personnel are concerned about changes in US aid policy (Confidence: HIGH). This is a clear COA to undermine UAF morale and Western support. Два майора shares a photo message criticizing NATO's recruitment for social media roles in Ukraine, framing it as "brainwashing" and aiming to demoralize Ukrainians (Confidence: HIGH). This is a clear COA of enhanced IO. Рыбарь shares a photo message titled "Accidents and Non-Accidents," indicating a COA to deflect blame and sow doubt (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares photos related to the FBI investigation into the Charlie Kirk murder, including photos of the suspect and the rifle (Confidence: HIGH). This supports a COA of exploiting US internal events for IO. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of a young boy at a Russian youth event, discussing his father's military service and handling a firearm (Confidence: HIGH). This reinforces a COA of indoctrinating youth and using children in propaganda. НгП раZVедка shares a photo implying a Pole is unwelcoming to Ukrainians (Confidence: HIGH). This reinforces a COA of sowing discord.
  • MLCOA 5: Maintain Internal Stability and Legitimacy (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF will continue to use internal propaganda and enforcement measures to maintain domestic stability and legitimacy of the government. TASS: Publicizing Rosgvardia's enhanced military role and combat successes will serve to project strength and stability internally. The focus on supporting SVO veterans will continue as a key morale-boosting effort. Promotion of military academies and suppression of dissenting voices are part of this COA. The re-opening of Krasnodar airport will be used to project normalcy. Confirmed (AV БогомаZ): Continued use of patriotic events and historical narratives to bolster internal cohesion. Confirmed (Новости Москвы): Efforts to normalize daily life through public service announcements. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС): While RF will attempt to maintain legitimacy, the issue of neglected graves may become an internal vulnerability. (Confidence: HIGH) TASS confirms "Армия России" stores are not closing, reinforcing the image of military strength (Confidence: HIGH). TASS graphic summarizing recent RF news, including Rosgvardia enhancements, is for internal consumption to project strength and progress (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС shows an exhibition of historical cartoons, likely to reinforce patriotic narratives and historical grievances (Confidence: HIGH). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on internal IO framing the war's impact on Russians (Confidence: HIGH). Воин DV shares a video of combat training for assault groups of the 20th Army, serving as internal IO to project strength (Confidence: HIGH). НгП раZVедка shares a photo message commemorating Felix Dzerzhinsky, reinforcing historical figures for ideological purposes (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports direct railway connection between Almaty and Moscow will resume, supporting internal IO of normalcy and international connectivity (Confidence: HIGH). Воин DV celebrating RF educational work specialists is an example of internal IO intended to boost morale and reinforce the legitimacy of the military (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports on Japan's centers closure due to "violations," used to project state control and protect against perceived foreign influence (Confidence: HIGH). Fighterbomber shares a photo of a banner with "We are for Russia," likely for internal messaging to reinforce unity (Confidence: LOW - military significance). ТАСС reports on a successful space launch to the ISS, a clear internal IO effort to project Russian scientific and technological prowess and legitimacy on the world stage (Confidence: HIGH). Новости Москвы video trailer for a TV series, while fictional, contributes to maintaining normalcy and internal stability (Confidence: HIGH). TASS reports the Russian Cabinet of Ministers increased military personnel salaries, clearly demonstrating an intent to maintain morale and retention (Confidence: HIGH). Военкор Котенок shares a news summary for September 11, 2025, which serves as a general RF internal IO tool (Confidence: HIGH). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares photo messages indicating projects "Faith in the SVO" and "History of one task" are being featured on federal channels (Confidence: LOW - military significance). ТАСС shares photo messages of the Russian Geographical Society photo contest winners, a clear internal IO effort to promote national identity and soft power (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of a young boy at a Russian youth event, discussing his father's military service and handling a firearm (Confidence: HIGH). This supports a COA of indoctrinating youth into military culture and maintaining internal stability.
  • MLCOA 6: Exploitation of US-Belarus Diplomatic Opening (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): RF will closely monitor and attempt to leverage the US lifting sanctions on "Belavia" and potential renewed diplomatic ties with Belarus. This could involve attempts to present itself as a partner in regional stability, or to exploit any perceived weakening of Western resolve. Confirmed (Басурин о главном): RF will likely leverage any renewed US interest in Jackson-Vanik amendment for IO purposes. (Confidence: MEDIUM) Lukashenko's statements thanking Trump for "peace efforts" and pardoning foreign citizens are direct actions in this COA to gain diplomatic leverage and influence US policy (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns' "Договорняка не будет говорили они. А это тогда что?" indicates RF IO is already exploiting perceptions of a "deal" (Confidence: MEDIUM). ТАСС reports the US Treasury Department issued a general license for financial transactions with Belarusian airline "Belavia" and its subsidiaries. This confirms RF intent to exploit diplomatic openings to reduce impact of sanctions and improve international standing (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports three Polish citizens and eight Belarusians cooperating with Polish media were among the 52 prisoners released by Lukashenko, confirming RF's intent to leverage such events for diplomatic maneuvering and to soften international opinion (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Vladimir Tarabrin, Russian Ambassador to the Netherlands, stated that any new sanctions against Russia by the Netherlands would receive an adequate and immediate response from Moscow. This indicates RF's intent to deter further sanctions and maintain diplomatic leverage (Confidence: HIGH).

2.2. Recent tactical changes or adaptations (Confidence: HIGH)

• Expanded Offensive Zones: RF is demonstrating an expanded scope of ground operations, with new claims of advances and "liberation" in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Sosnovka), a significant shift from traditional axes. This indicates an adaptation to probe new areas or divert UAF resources. The direct MoD claim of Sosnovka's liberation (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) reinforces this tactical adaptation. TASS confirms the tactical objective of this advance: encircling UAF in Velykomykhailivka. Confirmed (Colonelcassad): Claim of assaulting Zarechnoye confirms continued adaptation of ground offensives on the Lyman axis. Colonelcassad's report of expelling the enemy from Katerynivka and advancing towards Konstantinovka further confirms this tactical adaptation to widen offensive fronts (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video from "enemy publics" showing strikes on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast reinforces this new offensive and tactical adaptation (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo from "Dnepropetrovsk direction" confirms RF ground forces' presence in this new salient, indicating an ongoing tactical adaptation to open new fronts (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad's map overlay on the Borovskoe direction confirms RF adaptation to expand offensive pressure on additional axes (Confidence: HIGH). Два майора shares a map confirming "Бои в окрестностях Константиновки", reinforcing this tactical adaptation to intensify offensives on key axes (Confidence: HIGH).
• Enhanced Tactical Air Defense: MoD Russia's report of a Strela-10 SAM system downing a Shark UAV near Pokrovsk indicates RF is adapting its short-range air defense to protect offensive axes, a tactical adaptation to UAF drone activity. Басурин о главном claims Russian holding Rosele (Rostec) has begun supplying modernized anti-drone systems, indicating an ongoing adaptation to improve counter-UAV capabilities. Confirmed (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Kotsnews): The "Upyr" drone engaging a UAF interceptor drone highlights RF's adaptive tactics in air-to-air drone combat, showing efforts to counter UAF aerial ISR and strike capabilities, and RF claims success in this engagement. (Confidence: HIGH) MoD Russia's claim of neutralizing a UAF UAV command post by a T-90M tank demonstrates an adaptation of using direct fire from armored vehicles against hardened C2 targets, indicating a more integrated approach to counter-UAV efforts (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares a video of a captured Ukrainian reconnaissance drone ("Shark"), stating it was destroyed by RF "Fever" fighters. This demonstrates RF's adapted capability to identify and eliminate UAF reconnaissance assets (Confidence: HIGH).
• Expanded Role for Internal Security Forces: TASS reports Rosgvardia has been armed with tank/anti-tank guns, SPGs, and MLRS, and has executed over 60,000 fire missions. This is a significant tactical adaptation, indicating the integration of Rosgvardia into direct combat operations beyond traditional internal security roles, potentially freeing up regular army units or augmenting frontline firepower. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports tank units have been recreated within Rosgvardia and artillery firepower significantly increased through heavy weapon expansion, directly confirming this tactical adaptation and its ongoing implementation (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares analysis of Rosgvardia conducting exercises with heavy army equipment, corroborating this adaptation (Confidence: HIGH). Операция Z (citing Военкоры Русской Весны) further confirms Rosgvardia's enhanced combat potential, including recreated tank units and increased artillery (Confidence: HIGH).
• Persistent Urban Combat Focus: The reported urban combat within Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) indicates an adaptation to protracted, high-intensity urban warfare, suggesting RF is prepared for a grinding fight for key urban centers. WarGonzo video further supports RF's tactical adaptation to intense urban combat. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports sustained artillery and drone strikes on Nikopol region, demonstrating adaptive use of fire to target urban and civilian areas (Confidence: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares video of a significant explosion in Kramatorsk, implying adaptive use of FPV drones for urban strikes (Confidence: HIGH). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows extensive destruction in Vovchansk, confirming RF's tactical adaptation to urban warfare (Confidence: HIGH). Kadyrov_95's video showing "West-AHMAT" battalion operating in Vovchansk using FPV drones further reinforces RF's adaptation to urban combat with specialized units and drone technology (Confidence: HIGH). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing a battlefield with significant destruction, cratered ground, damaged vegetation, and several individuals in military uniform, some moving, others incapacitated or deceased. This is consistent with RF adapting to intense, attritional combat (Confidence: HIGH).
• Increased Depth of Hybrid Operations into NATO: The deliberate, large-scale drone incursions into Poland (and now Latvia/Lithuania's airspace closure and Lithuania's reported incursions) demonstrate an adaptation in RF's hybrid warfare, testing NATO's response thresholds and creating strategic friction with greater audacity. The coordinated closing of airspace by Poland and Latvia/Lithuania represents a reactive adaptation by NATO partners to RF's new level of probing. Poland's complete closure of all border crossings with Belarus (ASTRA) is a direct, reactive adaptation to RF's escalated hybrid actions. Poland massing 40,000 troops to its borders with Russia and Belarus is a direct, reactive adaptation to RF's escalated hybrid actions and persistent probing (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS detailing extended range "Gerbera" drones and their objective to close Rzeszow airbase further reinforces this tactical adaptation (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA confirms Polish deployment of 40,000 troops, reinforcing the reactive adaptation (Confidence: HIGH). ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 confirms Poland's troop deployment, a reactive adaptation (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС confirms Poland's deployment of 40,000 troops to the border with Belarus, reinforcing this reactive adaptation (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Sweden's MFA summoned the Russian ambassador, indicating continued diplomatic friction stemming from these hybrid operations and RF's adapted probing tactics (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Leonid Slutsky stated the drone situation in Poland increasingly resembles the MH-17 incident or the Skripal case, with the West escalating the mythical "Russian threat." This indicates an RF adaptation to deflect blame and generate conspiracy theories in response to international condemnation (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a photo message stating that Putin is delighted with the results of the "air defense check" by a swarm of drones in Poland, and The Financial Times writes that this attack pushes him to go further next time. This suggests an RF adaptation to escalate hybrid warfare against NATO based on perceived successes (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports France will send three Rafale fighters to patrol NATO's "eastern flank" after the drone incident in Poland (Confidence: HIGH). This deployment of NATO air assets will likely be met with continued RF probing and IO, indicating an adaptive cycle. ASTRA and РБК-Україна report France sending three Rafale fighters to Poland, confirming a reactive adaptation from NATO and indicating RF's continued probing strategy.
• Enhanced Long-Range Drone Command & Control: TASS reports the creation of the first special UAV detachment with a control center hundreds of kilometers from the front line. This is a significant adaptation, enhancing RF's capability to conduct extended range ISR and strike missions with improved C2.
• Adaptive IO Response to Zelenskyy's Statements: RF's immediate and coordinated IO response to Zelenskyy's statements about Polish drones "distracting NATO" (Операция Z) and Lavrov's comments on the US arming Ukraine (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition) demonstrates highly agile and adaptive IO, capable of leveraging real-time diplomatic and political developments. The rapid response to Hungarian FM Szijjártó's statements also demonstrates this agility. Confirmed (ТАСС, РБК-Україна, AV БогомаZ): Immediate IO to exploit Georgian political events, Arestovych interview, and Slovakian FM's comments on drones in Poland further demonstrate adaptive and opportunistic IO. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Операция Z): Use of Bloomberg report to frame NATO as escalatory. (Confidence: HIGH) Kotsnews video with speaker claiming NATO failed to respond to drone attack on Poland demonstrates RF's rapid and adaptive IO to immediately frame events in their favor (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns' photo message implying future strikes on Ukrainian musical schools is an adaptive PSYOP tactic to generate fear (Confidence: MEDIUM). Alex Parker Returns' statements from Lukashenko thanking Trump for "peace efforts" and pardoning foreign citizens demonstrate RF's adaptive use of third parties for diplomatic and IO maneuvering (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns' photo message "Договорняка не будет говорили они. А это тогда что?" is an adaptive IO response to perceived diplomatic shifts (Confidence: MEDIUM). Alex Parker Returns' report on UOC priest attacking military commissars is an adaptive IO tactic to exploit internal Ukrainian divisions (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares video alleging Charlie Kirk's murder was AI-generated, demonstrating an adaptive capability to discredit Western media through "deepfake" narratives (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Netherlands found no evidence of Moscow's involvement in Polish drone incident, an adaptive diplomatic denial (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС quotes Maria Zakharova on Western intimidation failing, showing adaptive IO to project resilience (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС and Alex Parker Returns' reporting on the Charlie Kirk murder weapon and alleged ideological links demonstrates adaptive exploitation of Western internal events for IO (Confidence: HIGH). Рыбарь reports "sabotage" in Germany again, indicating adaptive IO to portray Western instability (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports on Japan's centers closure due to "violations," showing adaptive IO to justify actions against foreign cultural institutions (Confidence: HIGH). Операция Z (citing Военкоры Русской Весны) reports the EU's supreme representative stated the war in Ukraine will continue for at least two more years, which RF IO will leverage to portray a protracted conflict (Confidence: HIGH). Военкор Котенок reports the "Krivoy Rog schlemiel-narcofuehrer" (Zelenskyy) is cynically dragonizing Poles, which demonstrates an adaptive and inflammatory IO tactic (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports FBI is asking for public assistance to identify a figure related to theчитывает Charlie Kirk murder, which RF IO will continue to use to amplify internal US divisions (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message implying a "churka" was the shooter, demonstrating an adaptive, racially charged IO tactic (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns' message expressing outrage at Netanyahu's actions shows an adaptive IO tactic to leverage international events for highly charged anti-Western narratives (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA reports Zelenskyy stated the drone incursions were not accidental, which will be met by adaptive RF counter-IO (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's report on Ukraine recognizing same-sex marriage is an adaptive RF IO tactic to sow social conservative discord (Confidence: HIGH). Рыбарь's photo message with the caption "Well, everyone ran, and so did we" demonstrates adaptive RF IO to generate demoralizing content (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Leonid Slutsky stated the drone situation in Poland increasingly resembles the MH-17 incident or the Skripal case, with the West escalating the mythical "Russian threat." This indicates an RF adaptation to deflect blame and generate conspiracy theories (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна shares a photo message stating that Trump needs to see that Putin is mocking him, citing Sikorski. This indicates an RF adaptation to exploit perceived disrespect for Western leaders (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a photo message stating that Putin is delighted with the results of the "air defense check" by a swarm of drones in Poland, and The Financial Times writes that this attack pushes him to go further next time. This suggests an RF adaptation to escalate hybrid warfare against NATO based on perceived successes and using IO to justify it (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova stating that Russia urges Poland to consider the consequences of closing its border with Belarus and to reconsider the decision as soon as possible. This indicates an RF adaptation to use diplomatic pressure as part of their IO strategy (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС, citing Miroshnik, claims UAF units on the Serebryansk direction received direct orders to shoot at civilians (Confidence: HIGH). This is an RF adaptation to accuse UAF of war crimes and justify RF actions. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports UAF military personnel are concerned about changes in US aid policy (Confidence: HIGH). This is an RF adaptation to exploit potential UAF morale issues. Два майора shares a photo message criticizing NATO's recruitment for social media roles in Ukraine, an RF adaptation to undermine NATO's image and create distrust (Confidence: HIGH). Рыбарь shares a photo message titled "Accidents and Non-Accidents," indicating an RF adaptation to address complex incidents through narrative control (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares photos related to the FBI investigation into the Charlie Kirk murder, including photos of the suspect and the rifle (Confidence: HIGH). This confirms RF's adaptation to exploit US domestic events for IO. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of a young boy at a Russian youth event, discussing his father's military service and handling a firearm (Confidence: HIGH). This reflects an RF adaptation to use children in propaganda and reinforce military culture. НгП раZVедка shares a photo implying a Pole is unwelcoming to Ukrainians (Confidence: HIGH). This is an adaptive RF IO tactic to create friction between allies.
• Civilian Airport Reopening (Operational Normalization/Flexibility): Confirmed (ASTRA, TASS, Mash на Донbasse, ТАСС, Рыбарь, Colonelcassad): The reopening of Krasnodar airport, while civilian, could be viewed as an an RF adaptation to normalize civilian life and potentially free up military airfields, or provide additional logistical flexibility in southern RF. (Confidence: HIGH)

2.3. Logistics and sustainment status (Confidence: MEDIUM)

RF continues to demonstrate the ability to sustain multi-axis ground offensives and massed air attacks, suggesting sufficient, albeit strained, logistical capacity. The confirmed "Vostok" Grouping operations in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a new and potentially extended supply line, would place additional demands on RF logistics, but no immediate signs of failure are evident. The presence of Russian military vehicles operating in wooded and rural areas implies continued fuel and spare parts availability. The call for drone donations from "Два майора" for assault groups near Sumy indicates a potential shortfall in organic drone supply. TASS reports Rosgvardia has been armed with heavy weaponry and executed over 60,000 fire missions, indicating a high consumption rate of artillery, which requires robust logistical support. The reported field fire near Yenakiieve (Mash на Донбассе), if linked to military activity, could indicate disruptions to local logistics or infrastructure, but its direct military impact is unclear. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports a missile attack on RF artillery depots in Crimea, which, if confirmed, represents a significant logistical setback for RF, impacting their ammunition sustainment, particularly for the southern front. The temporary suspension of trading on the Moscow Exchange (TASS) and subsequent resumption indicate potential financial market volatility, which could indirectly impact long-term sustainment. The re-opening of Krasnodar airport (TASS, Новости Москвы, ТАСС, Рыбарь, Colonelcassad) for flights may indicate an improvement in civilian logistics or a testing of civilian infrastructure resilience, which has implications for general logistical flow in the southern regions of RF. Confirmed (Север.Реалии): Putin's transfer of French gas giant assets to a firm without employees, whose director had received "scandalous state contracts," suggests potential internal corruption or restructuring that could impact long-term resource allocation or efficiency, though the immediate impact on frontline logistics is unclear. Confirmed (ТАСС): Hard landing of Mi-8 in Kaliningrad due to weather, while not combat-related, highlights ongoing challenges for RF aviation logistics. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС): Video of neglected graves of Russian soldiers in Krasnoyarsk Krai could indicate issues with morale and support for military families, indirectly affecting long-term recruitment and sustainment. (Confidence: HIGH) ТАСС states information about "Армия России" stores closing is false, likely to counter rumors of economic hardship or supply chain issues that could affect military sustainment (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA reports the Russian Central Bank has raised the dollar exchange rate above ₽85 for the first time since April, which could indicate growing economic strain and indirectly affect long-term sustainment (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports over half of drones supplied to UAF via state contracts are defective, an RF IO narrative aiming to suggest UAF logistical failures (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports direct railway connection between Almaty and Moscow will resume, which has positive logistical implications for RF (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report UAF destruction of a bridge near Nova Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, Russia. This represents a localized logistical disruption for RF, specifically impacting ground movement and supply lines (Confidence: HIGH). Новости Москвы reports discussions within the RF Central Bank to lower the key interest rate. This could aim to stimulate the economy, potentially influencing long-term sustainment, but immediate impact is unclear (Confidence: LOW). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video depicting military vehicles navigating rough terrain suggests continuous logistical movement by military forces, indicating a demand for fuel, maintenance, and supplies (Confidence: HIGH). TASS reports the Russian Cabinet of Ministers increased military personnel salaries, which will improve morale and potentially impact long-term retention and recruitment, thus impacting sustainment (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares photos of an UAZ "Bukhanka" vehicle being prepared for the 135th Assault Battalion, supported by subscribers and a tactical group (Confidence: HIGH). This demonstrates continued civilian/volunteer logistical support, indicating a reliance on such efforts to augment state supply chains and potentially highlighting gaps in standard military logistics for certain units. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing a battlefield with significant destruction and casualties, which points to high consumption of ammunition and resources in RF operations, thus requiring robust logistical support (Confidence: HIGH). Два майора shares a video showing a wounded soldier receiving medical attention in a mobile medical unit, which relies on consistent medical supply lines (Confidence: HIGH). This indicates that RF is providing medical support, requiring dedicated logistical efforts for medical supplies. Два майора shares a video showing an evacuation vehicle of combat medic Hiler, confirming the deployment of specialized medical logistics (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares a video depicting soldiers in a camp environment with ammunition crates (Confidence: HIGH). This confirms continued ammunition resupply.

2.4. Command and control effectiveness (Confidence: HIGH)

RF Command and Control (C2) demonstrates high effectiveness in coordinating multi-domain operations:

• Multi-Domain Synchronization: The execution of a massed air attack alongside multi-axis ground offensives, and concurrent hybrid operations against NATO, demonstrates a sophisticated and effective C2 structure capable of synchronizing forces across air, land, and information domains. Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report UAF destruction of a bridge near Nova Tavolzhanka. This indicates a localized disruption of RF C2, as the bridge was a logistical route that should have been protected (Confidence: HIGH).
• Adaptive Targeting: The rapid shift in targeting focus to Ukrainian DIB facilities and national C2 infrastructure, as well as the immediate exploitation of the Pokrovsk breakthrough, indicates agile C2 capable of adapting to battlefield developments and prioritizing high-value targets. MoD Russia's claim of a T-90M tank neutralizing a UAF UAV command post by indirect fire in the Krasny Liman direction demonstrates effective tactical C2 and integration of various assets for a specific targeting objective (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports sustained artillery and drone strikes on Nikopol region, indicating coordinated C2 for targeting civilian areas (Confidence: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares video of an explosion in Kramatorsk, implying coordinated FPV drone strikes in urban environments (Confidence: HIGH). TASS reports UAF attacked ZNPP training center, which RF will use to demonstrate UAF's alleged targeting of sensitive infrastructure, which requires RF C2 to quickly respond (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA reports UAF attacks in Belgorod Oblast causing civilian casualties, which requires RF C2 to coordinate defensive measures and IO responses (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a thermal imaging drone video showing a series of artillery strikes impacting what appear to be Russian military positions. This indicates RF C2 is effectively coordinating large-scale artillery strikes (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast, confirming effective RF C2 for air strikes (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV in northern Kharkiv Oblast, moving southwest, confirming effective RF C2 for drone operations (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV south of Odesa, confirming effective RF C2 for drone operations (Confidence: HIGH).
• Information Warfare Integration: The immediate and coordinated exploitation of Zelenskyy's statements, Lavrov's comments, and Hungarian FM Szijjártó's statements for complex IO campaigns, coupled with rapid dissemination of narratives (e.g., blaming UAF for civilian casualties in Donetsk), demonstrates highly effective integration of IO into strategic and operational C2. Confirmed (Операция Z, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition): The rapid response to Zelenskyy's comments on Polish drones, Lavrov's statements, and Hungarian FM's comments underscores the agility and coordination of RF IO C2 at the highest levels. Confirmed (ТАСС, РБК-Україна, AV БогомаZ): Coordinated IO response to various diplomatic and domestic events further highlights effective C2. Confirmed (Народная милиция ДНР): Effective C2 for PSYOP efforts. (Confidence: HIGH) Kotsnews video with speaker claiming NATO failed to respond to drone attack on Poland demonstrates a well-coordinated and rapid IO response (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns' statements from Lukashenko thanking Trump and Alex Parker Returns' photo messages with IO content show effective C2 integration with third-party actors or for rapid messaging (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares video alleging Charlie Kirk's murder was AI-generated, demonstrating coordinated IO to discredit Western media (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Netherlands found no evidence of Moscow's involvement in Polish drone incident, showcasing coordinated diplomatic denial (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports Estonian PM Kallas's prediction that the war will last at least two more years, which RF IO C2 can leverage (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС quotes Maria Zakharova on Western intimidation failing, indicating continued effective C2 over strategic IO messaging (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС and Alex Parker Returns' reporting on the Charlie Kirk murder weapon and alleged ideological links demonstrates effective C2 to exploit Western internal political events (Confidence: HIGH). Рыбарь's "sabotage" in Germany report highlights C2 to portray Western instability (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports on Japan's centers closure due to "violations," showing C2 to justify actions against foreign cultural institutions through IO (Confidence: HIGH). Операция Z (citing Военкоры Русской Весны) reports the EU's supreme representative stated the war in Ukraine will continue for at least two more years, which RF IO C2 can leverage (Confidence: HIGH). Военкор Котенок reports the "Krivoy Rog schlemiel-narcofuehrer" (Zelenskyy) is cynically dragonizing Poles after drones in their airspace, indicating effective C2 for highly inflammatory and personalized IO (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports FBI is asking for public assistance to identify a figure related to the Charlie Kirk murder, demonstrating C2 over domestic and international IO narratives (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message implying a "churka" was the shooter, further demonstrating C2 over divisive IO (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns' message expressing outrage at Netanyahu's actions and claiming betrayal indicates C2 for leveraging international events for highly charged anti-Western/anti-Israel IO (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA reports Zelenskyy stated the drone incursions were not accidental, which indicates C2 for immediate counter-IO (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's report on Ukraine recognizing same-sex marriage demonstrates C2 for social conservative IO (Confidence: HIGH). Рыбарь's photo message with the caption "Well, everyone ran, and so did we" reinforces C2 for immediate demoralizing IO (Confidence: HIGH). НгП раZVедка's celebratory message indicates C2 for immediate morale-boosting IO (Confidence: MEDIUM). Kotsnews's photo message depicting a destroyed military vehicle with a "Z" symbol is an example of C2 for immediate visual propaganda (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Leonid Slutsky stated the drone situation in Poland increasingly resembles the MH-17 incident or the Skripal case, with the West escalating the mythical "Russian threat." This demonstrates RF C2 for generating conspiracy theories and deflecting blame (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна shares a photo message stating that Trump needs to see that Putin is mocking him, citing Sikorski. This indicates RF C2 can rapidly exploit perceived Western weaknesses (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a photo message stating that Putin is delighted with the results of the "air defense check" by a swarm of drones in Poland. This indicates RF C2 is effectively using information to justify further hybrid actions (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova stating that Russia urges Poland to consider the consequences of closing its border with Belarus and to reconsider the decision as soon as possible. This demonstrates RF C2 for diplomatic pressure and IO (Confidence: HIGH). Военкор Котенок shares a news summary for September 11, 2025, which reflects RF C2 for general IO dissemination (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС, citing Miroshnik, claims UAF units on the Serebryansk direction received direct orders to shoot at civilians (Confidence: HIGH). This demonstrates effective RF C2 for severe accusations and IO. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports UAF military personnel are concerned about changes in US aid policy (Confidence: HIGH). This is RF C2 exploiting potential UAF morale issues. Два майора shares a photo message criticizing NATO's recruitment for social media roles in Ukraine, demonstrating effective RF C2 for undermining NATO's image (Confidence: HIGH). Рыбарь shares a photo message titled "Accidents and Non-Accidents," indicating RF C2 for narrative control over complex incidents (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares photos related to the FBI investigation into the Charlie Kirk murder, including photos of the suspect and the rifle (Confidence: HIGH). This confirms RF C2 for exploiting US domestic events for IO. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of a young boy at a Russian youth event, discussing his father's military service and handling a firearm (Confidence: HIGH). This demonstrates RF C2 for indoctrinating youth into military culture and leveraging children in propaganda. НгП раZVедка shares a photo implying a Pole is unwelcoming to Ukrainians (Confidence: HIGH). This demonstrates effective RF C2 for sowing discord between allies.
• Emerging Drone C2: TASS reports the creation of the first special UAV detachment with a control center hundreds of kilometers from the front line. This represents a significant enhancement of RF's drone C2 capabilities. The claim by Народная милиция ДНР (238 Brigade) to have destroyed a UAF UAV control post in Berestok indicates RF's awareness of and targeting of UAF drone C2 nodes. Kotsnews drone footage of 'Vega' unit operations confirms effective C2 in managing drone reconnaissance and potential targeting, including identification of UAF assets and manpower (Confidence: HIGH). Kadyrov_95's video demonstrating "West-AHMAT" battalion's FPV drone operations highlights effective tactical C2 for specialized drone units (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a reconnaissance UAV in central Chernihiv Oblast, indicating continued RF C2 over ISR drone assets (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares a video of a captured Ukrainian reconnaissance drone ("Shark"), stating it was destroyed by RF "Fever" fighters. This demonstrates RF C2 in directing counter-UAV operations (Confidence: HIGH). Операция Z shares a compilation of drone footage showcasing the identification and engagement of various enemy assets, including a 'BABA-YAGA' drone. This indicates effective RF C2 for coordinating ISR and strike operations against UAF drone assets (Confidence: HIGH).
• Decentralized Tactical Initiative: The repeated claims of localized advances by specific units (e.g., 430th Motorized Rifle Regiment, "Vostok" Grouping, 36th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, 63rd Separate Spetsnaz Company), even if minor, suggest a level of decentralized tactical initiative under overall strategic guidance. Rosgvardia's operational effectiveness in executing 60,000 fire missions further supports a robust, if centralized, C2 structure capable of delegating fire tasks. WarGonzo video further supports RF's tactical decision-making in urban combat. Confirmed (MoD Russia): "Terminator" training video, while in a rear area, suggests a maintained focus on unit-level combat readiness and C2 for specialized armored vehicles. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports on Rosgvardia's enhanced capabilities with tanks and increased artillery, indicating a successful integration and C2 for these internal security forces into frontline operations (Confidence: HIGH). Воин DV shares a video of combat training for assault groups of the 20th Army, demonstrating effective C2 in training scenarios (Confidence: HIGH). Операция Z (citing Военкоры Русской Весны) further confirms Rosgvardia's enhanced combat potential, including recreated tank units and increased artillery, indicating effective C2 in their integration (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo from "Dnepropetrovsk direction" reinforces RF C2 allowing for operations in newly opened areas (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares video showing a Lancet drone from the 305th Guards Artillery Brigade engaged in counter-battery warfare. This demonstrates effective tactical C2 for specialized strike assets (Confidence: HIGH). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing a battlefield with significant destruction and casualties, consistent with effective C2 for directing forces in intense combat (Confidence: HIGH). Операция Z shares a compilation of drone footage showcasing the identification and engagement of various enemy assets, indicating effective tactical C2 for coordinating ISR and strike operations (Confidence: HIGH). Два майора shares a map confirming "Бои в окрестностях Константиновки", indicating effective C2 for directing ground forces (Confidence: HIGH). Два майора shares a video showing a wounded soldier receiving medical attention in a mobile medical unit (Confidence: HIGH). This demonstrates C2 for medical support and casualty evacuation. Два майора shares a video showing an evacuation vehicle of combat medic Hiler, confirming effective C2 for specialized medical units (Confidence: HIGH).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian force posture and readiness (Confidence: HIGH)

UAF maintains a resilient defensive posture, successfully repelling 130 RF attacks across all major axes in the last 24 hours. UAF drone operators are demonstrating tactical effectiveness against RF infantry, vehicles, and logistics (60,000+ targets in August). Ukrainian air defenses achieved a 94% interception rate (62 of 66 UAVs) against a significant RF air attack. UAF continues to demonstrate asymmetric warfare capabilities through resistance movements like "ATESH" conducting deep strikes within RF territory. The prompt deployment of air defense and aircraft by Poland, Sweden, and Netherlands in response to RF incursions shows strengthening, albeit reactive, international support. UAF is actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to enhance international cooperation and air defense capabilities, including sharing expertise on countering Shaheds. STERNENKO: Video showcasing UAF drones successfully targeting RF mechanized advance will boost morale and confidence in UAF capabilities. Оперативний ЗСУ: The "Lyubart" brigade is showcased as an elite, well-equipped unit, indicating the presence of high-readiness formations within UAF. Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦: The diplomatic engagement with the Finnish President indicates strong international support, which bolsters morale and political readiness. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video highlights effective UAF "waiting drones" as a UAF tactical adaptation. The meeting of the Coordination Headquarters for POWs with Azov families demonstrates continued support for UAF personnel and their families, a key morale factor. The demining operations in Kharkiv Oblast (Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА) signify active efforts to restore liberated territories and secure civilian populations. Confirmed (Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"): Video of public solidarity and support for UAF reinforces strong civilian-military cohesion and morale. Confirmed (Оперативний ЗСУ): Report on an arrest in Shargorod for the murder of two children, indicating transparency and focus on internal security/justice during wartime. Confirmed (Офіс Генерального прокурора): Prosecutorial action against a NABU official for alleged corruption, demonstrating ongoing efforts to maintain transparency and combat corruption, which strengthens institutional readiness. (Confidence: HIGH) The loss of a Su-27 pilot, Major Borovyk, will be a blow to morale but will likely be framed as a heroic sacrifice, maintaining public resolve. Confirmed (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦): Video of a mother discussing her son's death in the war, framing it as a "feat" and "transition." This could be a UAF IO opportunity to highlight the human cost of the war and the resilience of Ukrainian people. (Confidence: HIGH) Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА provides a photo message of drones being sent to the front, including banners with "ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE" and "ACIEM INDURAVIT," demonstrating continued resupply, unit identity, and readiness (Confidence: HIGH). STERNENKO reports 20 enemy drones shot down by HUR MOD specialists, demonstrating effective air defense and counter-drone readiness (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Ukrainian military personnel will train Polish military personnel on drone interception, indicating UAF's high level of expertise and readiness to support allies (Confidence: HIGH). STERNENKO announces the "Man in the Military" award for military leaders, demonstrating UAF's commitment to recognizing valor and boosting morale (Confidence: HIGH). Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими reports a meeting with families of 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade defenders who are POWs or missing, demonstrating continued support for UAF personnel and their families, a key morale factor (Confidence: HIGH). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video commemorating the 2022 liberation of territory up to the state border by the Khartia unit, reinforcing UAF successes and national pride (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photos of officials working in Zaporizhzhia, demonstrating governmental presence and reconstruction efforts, reinforcing stability and commitment (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports a new suspicion against a former minister from Yanukovych's time, reinforcing accountability (Confidence: HIGH). STERNENKO shares video of Ukrainian special forces destroying an RF BMD-3 in Zaporizhzhia direction, demonstrating offensive capability and readiness (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an air raid alert lifted, indicating successful air defense (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports air threat lifted for Odesa Oblast (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirm a successful UAF operation by the National Guard unit 'Lazar' to destroy a bridge near Nova Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, Russia, demonstrating a clear tactical success in disrupting RF logistics (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports the US Treasury Department issued a general license for financial transactions with Belarusian airline "Belavia" and its subsidiaries, a diplomatic success for Ukraine's allies in potentially influencing Belarus's alignment (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС also reports three Polish citizens and eight Belarusians cooperating with Polish media were among the 52 prisoners released by Lukashenko, another diplomatic success for Western engagement (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video compilation of FPV drone ambushes on enemy vehicles and manpower, confirming active UAF FPV drone operations and successful engagements (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an "underground" school opened in Vilnyansk, showing adaptive governance and commitment to education, which is a success in maintaining civilian life amidst conflict (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA reports Zelenskyy stated the drone incursions into Poland were not accidental, reinforcing UAF's diplomatic success in framing the incident (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна shares a photo message stating that Britain and France want to strengthen NATO's eastern flank with Rafale and Eurofighter jets, indicating strong international support (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a Ukrainian military operation, using drone footage from an aerial perspective. It shows a camouflaged position in a wooded area with a D-30 122mm howitzer being loaded and fired. The video also shows a series of artillery strikes with visible explosions, indicating successful engagement or attempted engagement of enemy positions (Confidence: HIGH). This demonstrates UAF artillery readiness. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video from a drone's perspective, likely a reconnaissance or strike drone, showing thermal imaging of personnel and potential targets, direct strikes resulting in explosions, and general landscape views. 'X' markers with numbers suggest an ongoing operation or a series of observed events. Russian flags on targets indicate engagement with Russian forces. The video contains a QR code and bank transfer details, suggesting a call for donations (Confidence: HIGH). This highlights active UAF drone operations and readiness. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares a photo message with text about the pilot who died. The text commemorates Major Oleksandr Borovyk of the 39th Tactical Aviation Brigade, stating he died on September 11, 2025, during a combat mission in the Zaporizhzhia direction. The image is a portrait of the pilot (Confidence: HIGH). This demonstrates transparency and recognition of sacrifices, which supports morale. РБК-Україна reports Rheinmetall will deploy shell production in a safe region of Ukraine (Confidence: HIGH). This is a major strategic success for UAF, bolstering long-term readiness and industrial capability. Zelenskiy / Official and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 share video of President Zelenskyy meeting with US Special Representative General Keith Kellogg, indicating continued high-level US support and diplomatic engagement (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ shares similar video, confirming this success (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ shares multiple photos from the international exhibition DSEI 2025 in London, showcasing Ukraine's engagement with global defense and security industries to secure future capabilities and partnerships (Confidence: HIGH). This confirms UAF's proactive posture. Zelenskiy / Official shares video and photos of a meeting with Danish, Finnish, and Estonian officials (Confidence: HIGH). This highlights continued strong diplomatic ties and support for UAF. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of President Zelenskyy meeting with US Ambassador Bridget Brink and US Special Representative General Keith Kellogg (Confidence: HIGH). This reinforces strong diplomatic messaging about international support.

• Resource requirements and constraints: Sustained high-volume RF air attacks necessitate continuous replenishment and upgrading of UAF air defense munitions and platforms, including the additional Patriot systems requested by Poland. The intensification of ground combat across multiple axes, particularly on the Pokrovsk front, places severe strain on UAF manpower, armored vehicle reserves, and artillery ammunition. Protecting critical DIB facilities will require additional, advanced air defense assets that are currently dispersed or limited. Continued Western aid, including the newly approved $400 million from the US and Sweden's 20th package (now confirmed at $836 million, with future commitments of $4.276 billion annually for 2026-2027), remains critical. The threat of RF "swarm drone" and long-range stealth drone adoption necessitates urgent investment in advanced counter-UAV and EW capabilities. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade's recruitment for UAV repair specialists indicates a critical need for technical personnel and resources to maintain drone superiority. STERNENKO's call for donations for drones reinforces the ongoing resource requirement. The Hungarian FM's accusations (РБК-Україна, Операция Z) highlight potential diplomatic constraints that could impact future aid. The need for remote VLC for soldiers indicates ongoing personnel management challenges for those undergoing treatment. Confirmed (Оперативний ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ): The loss of a Su-27 pilot and aircraft underscores the critical need for advanced air defense, pilot training, and aircraft replacement, exacerbating existing constraints. Confirmed (РБК-Україна): Ukraine's reaction to the Slovakian FM's comments highlights the diplomatic burden of maintaining international support and countering divisive narratives. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА photo message of drones being sent to the front implies a continued demand for resupply of these critical assets (Confidence: HIGH). TASS reports US Energy Minister Chris Wright stated the US aims to reduce Russian gas supplies to Europe to zero, replacing them with US energy resources, which highlights a strategic energy resource shift that impacts global markets and long-term Ukrainian support (Confidence: HIGH). TASS reports over half of drones supplied to UAF via state contracts are defective, highlighting internal resource constraints, though this is also an RF IO narrative (Confidence: HIGH). STERNENKO's message "А у вас працює конверт на русоріз? Закиньте по 2 гривні для тесту" appears to be a fundraising appeal for drones or anti-RF equipment, indicating ongoing resource needs and public engagement in procurement (Confidence: HIGH). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing a battlefield with significant destruction and casualties, which emphasizes the high resource consumption and thus ongoing resource requirements for UAF (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports Rheinmetall will deploy shell production in a safe region of Ukraine (Confidence: HIGH). This addresses a critical resource constraint for UAF in the mid- to long-term.

3.2. Recent tactical successes or setbacks (Confidence: HIGH)

• Successes: High interception rate (94%) against RF UAV attack (62/66). Successful repulsion of 130 RF attacks across multiple axes. Effective drone operations by UAF units against RF personnel and equipment (60,000+ targets in August). "ATESH" sabotage operation in Tula. Agreement with Poland for tactical military cooperation against UAVs. Sweden and Netherlands pledging additional air defense assets to Poland. EU condemning RF airspace violation and announcing increased sanctions. UAF is actively recruiting and training UAV repair specialists to sustain drone operations. CRITICAL: Successful HUR strike on an RF Black Sea Fleet Project MPSV07 vessel, disabling a key support asset. US Congress approved $400 million in military aid. Europe promising to cease Russian gas purchases by end of 2026. РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO: Sweden has provided its 20th package of military aid to Ukraine ($836M), demonstrating continued international support, and committed $4.276B annually for 2026-2027. STERNENKO: UAF drones successfully targeted Russian military equipment in response to a mechanized offensive on the Kostiantynivka direction, indicating effective counter-offensive drone operations. РБК-Україна: Lukashenko released 52 more political prisoners following US diplomatic engagement, which could be leveraged as a diplomatic success for Ukraine if it leads to reduced Belarusian complicity with RF. ТАСС reports Britain and France offered to send Eurofighter and Rafale fighters to Poland in connection with the drone incident. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showcases effective UAF "waiting drones." Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports significant demining efforts, securing territory for civilians. Confirmed (Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"): Public show of solidarity reinforces morale and national unity. Confirmed (Оперативний ЗСУ): Swift legal action against alleged child murderer in Shargorod demonstrates commitment to justice and internal order. Confirmed (Офіс Генерального прокурора): Legal action against a NABU official for alleged corruption, demonstrating continued commitment to combating corruption. (Confidence: HIGH) Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА provides a photo message of drones being sent to the front, highlighting ongoing resupply (Confidence: HIGH). STERNENKO reports 20 enemy drones shot down by HUR MOD specialists, demonstrating effective UAF air defense capabilities (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of Shahed drone debris in Odesa, indicating a successful interception or drone malfunction (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Ukrainian military personnel will train Polish military personnel on shooting down drones, signifying UAF expertise and an international success in military cooperation (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ reports a UAF kamikaze drone clearing a roadblock with three FPV "waiting drones," demonstrating effective UAF counter-drone and offensive drone operations (Confidence: HIGH). STERNENKO announces the "Man in the Military" award, a morale-boosting initiative to recognize UAF military leaders (Confidence: HIGH). Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими reports a meeting with families of 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade defenders, demonstrating continued support for UAF personnel (Confidence: HIGH). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video commemorating the 2022 liberation of territory up to the state border by the Khartia unit, highlighting past UAF successes (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports Ukraine and Hungary have agreed on the agenda for a dialogue, indicating progress in diplomatic relations despite previous friction (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photos of officials working in Zaporizhzhia, demonstrating governmental presence and reconstruction efforts, which bolsters civilian morale (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports a new suspicion against a former minister from Yanukovych's time, reinforcing accountability (Confidence: HIGH). STERNENKO shares video of Ukrainian special forces destroying an RF BMD-3 in Zaporizhzhia direction, a clear tactical success (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an air raid alert lifted, indicating successful air defense (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports air threat lifted for Odesa Oblast (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirm a successful UAF operation by the National Guard unit 'Lazar' to destroy a bridge near Nova Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, Russia, demonstrating a clear tactical success in disrupting RF logistics (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports the US Treasury Department issued a general license for financial transactions with Belarusian airline "Belavia" and its subsidiaries, a diplomatic success for Ukraine's allies in potentially influencing Belarus's alignment (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС also reports three Polish citizens and eight Belarusians cooperating with Polish media were among the 52 prisoners released by Lukashenko, another diplomatic success for Western engagement (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video compilation of FPV drone ambushes on enemy vehicles and manpower, confirming active UAF FPV drone operations and successful engagements (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an "underground" school opened in Vilnyansk, showcasing adaptive governance and commitment to education, which is a success in maintaining civilian life amidst conflict (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA reports Zelenskyy stated the drone incursions into Poland were not accidental, reinforcing UAF's diplomatic success in framing the incident (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна shares a photo message stating that Britain and France want to strengthen NATO's eastern flank with Rafale and Eurofighter jets, indicating strong international support (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a Ukrainian military operation, using drone footage from an aerial perspective. It shows a camouflaged position in a wooded area with a D-30 122mm howitzer being loaded and fired. The video also shows a series of artillery strikes with visible explosions, indicating successful engagement or attempted engagement of enemy positions (Confidence: HIGH). This demonstrates UAF tactical success in artillery engagements. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video from a drone's perspective, likely a reconnaissance or strike drone, showing thermal imaging of personnel and potential targets, direct strikes resulting in explosions, and general landscape views. 'X' markers with numbers suggest an ongoing operation or a series of observed events. Russian flags on targets indicate engagement with Russian forces. The video contains a QR code and bank transfer details, suggesting a call for donations (Confidence: HIGH). This highlights successful UAF drone operations against RF targets. РБК-Україна reports Rheinmetall will deploy shell production in a safe region of Ukraine (Confidence: HIGH). This is a significant strategic success for UAF, bolstering long-term ammunition production. Zelenskiy / Official and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 share video of President Zelenskyy meeting with US Special Representative General Keith Kellogg, indicating continued high-level US support and diplomatic engagement (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ shares similar video, confirming this success (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ shares multiple photos from the international exhibition DSEI 2025 in London, promoting Ukraine's engagement with global defense industries and securing future capabilities (Confidence: HIGH). Zelenskiy / Official shares video and photos of a meeting with Danish, Finnish, and Estonian officials (Confidence: HIGH). This highlights continued strong diplomatic ties and support for UAF. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of President Zelenskyy meeting with US Ambassador Bridget Brink and US Special Representative General Keith Kellogg (Confidence: HIGH). This confirms continued high-level US diplomatic support and is a clear success. STERNENKO shares video of Polish FM Sikorski criticizing Putin, which is a diplomatic success for UAF in rallying international condemnation of RF (Confidence: HIGH).
• Setbacks: RF exploitation of the Pokrovsk breakthrough, leading to urban combat within Pokrovsk city limits. Continued significant damage to DIB, energy, and civilian infrastructure from RF deep strikes. Civilian casualties from RF attacks remain high, particularly in Yarova (25 dead) and Sumy (educational institution, Holy Resurrection Cathedral). Civilian death in Prymorske and death of a 15-year-old boy in Kharkiv due to RF shelling underscore the ongoing human cost. Loss of Turkish BMC Kirpi and Ukrainian "Kozak-7" armored vehicles in occupied DPR indicates UAF losses in ground engagements. RF claims of controlling 50% of Pereyizne (Siversk direction) represent a localized territorial loss. CRITICAL: RF's "liberation" of Sosnovka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Рыбарь, Операция Z, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Воин DV, TASS, Андрей Марочко), represents a significant territorial setback for UAF and a new threat to Velykomykhailivka. Воин DV video confirms successful RF drone strikes on UAF personnel and vehicles in the South Donetsk direction. Zvиздец Мангусту report of RF assault groups reaching Oleksandrivka, even if not holding, indicates persistent pressure and potential for future setbacks on the Lyman direction. The drone hit on the Holy Resurrection Cathedral in Sumy is a significant cultural/psychological setback. RF claims of destroying a UAF UAV control point and communication antenna in Konstantinovka direction, if verified, represent a setback for UAF drone operations and C2. The alleged strike on an "MBEC node" in Vilkove, Odesa Oblast, if verified, represents a setback for UAF naval drone capabilities. STERNENKO: Russian mechanized offensive on Kostiantynivka direction, indicating a new tactical setback requiring UAF response. РБК-Україна: Hungarian Foreign Minister's accusations against Kyiv indicate a diplomatic setback that could strain relations and potentially impact support. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports ongoing heavy combat and destruction in Stepnohirsk, indicating sustained pressure and potential UAF losses. Народная милиция ДНР (238 Brigade) claims to have destroyed a UAF UAV control post in Berestok, which, if confirmed, is a tactical setback for UAF drone operations. Confirmed (Оперативний ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Николаевский Ванёк, Операция Z): Loss of UAF Major Oleksandr Borovyk and Su-27 aircraft in Zaporizhzhia direction is a critical operational setback, impacting air defense and offensive air capabilities. Confirmed (РБК-Україна): Ukraine's reaction to Slovakian FM's "cynical statement" on drones in Poland indicates a diplomatic setback, where a NATO/EU ally is perceived as undermining Ukrainian efforts or narratives. WarGonzo reports a Ukrainian "Yozhka" drone shot down near Lyman, representing a tactical setback in UAF drone operations (Confidence: MEDIUM). Alex Parker Returns' report on UOC priest attacking military commissars in Cherkasy indicates an internal security setback that could undermine public trust and complicate mobilization (Confidence: HIGH). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares drone footage of a Romanian APR-40 MLRS being hit by a Russian drone, representing a loss of a valuable UAF asset (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports a strike on a "Navoz" deployment point in the Sloviansk direction, which, if successful, is a tactical setback (Confidence: MEDIUM). 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports sustained artillery and drone strikes on Nikopol region, indicating continued damage to civilian areas and potential UAF defensive challenges (Confidence: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares video of a significant explosion in Kramatorsk, indicating a successful RF strike on a civilian target, a tactical setback in terms of civilian protection (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports over half of drones supplied to UAF via state contracts are defective, an RF IO narrative designed to highlight UAF setbacks (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports a 65-year-old man was wounded in an enemy attack on Polohy Raion, indicating continued civilian casualties (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV south of Zaporizhzhia, moving towards the city, indicating a continuing threat and potential for future setbacks (Confidence: HIGH). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows extensive destruction in Vovchansk, highlighting a major tactical setback in terms of urban damage (Confidence: HIGH). Kotsnews drone footage shows damaged RF armored vehicles, implying UAF tactical successes in recent engagements (Confidence: HIGH). AV БогомаZ reports Ukrainian FPV drones attacked a civilian vehicle in Bryansk Oblast, which, if confirmed, would be a setback for UAF in terms of adherence to LOAC, or a significant IO setback (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad reports RF forces have "expelled the enemy from Katerynivka" and continue to advance in the Konstantinovka direction, near Kleban-Byk and Pleshcheyevka, representing a territorial setback for UAF (Confidence: HIGH). Рыбарь's photo message with the caption "Well, everyone ran, and so did we" is RF IO attempting to portray UAF forces as fleeing or demoralized, a potential morale setback if believed (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports UAF attacked ZNPP training center; no casualties, and safe operation modes of the power units were not violated. If true, this represents a significant LOAC violation and a tactical setback for UAF credibility (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA reports that 6 people were injured in attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Belgorod Oblast, with a Pyaterochka supermarket among the affected targets. This represents a significant tactical setback for UAF in terms of LOAC adherence and IO if verified, or an RF false flag (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares a video of a Lancet drone from the 305th Guards Artillery Brigade engaged in counter-battery warfare on the South Donetsk direction, targeting an M-198 towed howitzer (Confidence: HIGH). This represents a tactical setback for UAF artillery capabilities. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing a battlefield with significant destruction and casualties, which underscores the high attrition and potentially heavy setbacks experienced by UAF in recent engagements (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares a video of a captured Ukrainian reconnaissance drone ("Shark"), stating it was destroyed by RF "Fever" fighters. This represents a tactical setback for UAF reconnaissance capabilities (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a thermal imaging drone video showing a series of artillery strikes impacting what appear to be Russian military positions. This indicates successful RF fire missions against UAF positions, representing a tactical setback for UAF (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares a photo message with text about the pilot who died. This confirms a significant combat loss for the UAF Air Force, a critical tactical setback (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad's map overlay shows RF advances on the Borovskoe direction, indicating a territorial setback for UAF in this area (Confidence: HIGH). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports UAF military personnel are concerned about changes in US aid policy (Confidence: HIGH). This represents a potential morale setback and a vulnerability that RF IO is exploiting. Два майора shares a map confirming "Бои в окрестностях Константиновки", implying UAF setbacks in holding ground (Confidence: HIGH). Confirmed (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦): Video of a woman discussing her son's death in the war, framing it as a "feat" and "transition." This could be a UAF IO opportunity to highlight the human cost of the war and the resilience of Ukrainian people. (Confidence: HIGH)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

4.1. Propaganda and disinformation campaigns (Confidence: HIGH)

RF is running a highly active and adaptive propaganda campaign. Key narratives include:

• NATO provocation: Blaming NATO for escalating the conflict, with new narratives attributing UAF drone attacks to Baltic states. Confirmed (Операция Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ): Zelenskyy is "making excuses" for drones in Poland, claiming they distract NATO from Ukraine. This is a direct RF IO push to discredit Zelenskyy and Ukrainian narratives. TASS is leveraging Poland's preparation of a "military-defensive response" to the drone incident to frame NATO as escalatory. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition: Lavrov blames US for arming Kyiv, advocating for addressing "root causes." This is a clear RF IO effort to shift blame and push for a diplomatic resolution on RF's terms. Операция Z attributes claims to "Военкоры Русской Весны" about Hungarian FM Szijjártó stating that Ukraine will not achieve EU membership without restoring rights for Zakarpattia Hungarians, attempting to create internal EU discord and pressure Ukraine. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claims "Baltic states ask the US not to abandon them," an attempt to sow fear and imply US unreliability. Confirmed (РБК-Україна): Slovakian FM's statement on drones in Poland being "cynical" provides RF IO with ammunition to highlight internal EU disunity. Confirmed (Kotsnews): "Baltic states ask the US not to abandon them." This is an RF IO attempt to sow discord and fear within NATO. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (ТАСС): Polish FM Radoslaw Sikorski emotionally urged Poles not to visit Russia and Belarus, reinforcing the sense of heightened tension and potentially solidifying the diplomatic stance against Russia and Belarus. (Confidence: HIGH) Kotsnews video with speaker claiming NATO failed to respond militarily or politically to the drone attack on Poland is a direct example of RF IO aimed at undermining NATO's credibility and unity (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns' photo message implying future strikes on Ukrainian musical schools, a likely PSYOP to instill fear among civilians and undermine morale (Confidence: MEDIUM). Alex Parker Returns' photo message "Договорняка не будет говорили они. А это тогда что?" is RF IO designed to sow distrust in Western promises and intentions (Confidence: MEDIUM). ТАСС reports Slovak PM Fico stated Slovakia rejects the deployment of Western troops in Ukraine, which RF IO will immediately leverage to highlight disunity (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS detailing extended range of "Gerbera" drones to target Poland is a strong RF IO narrative to portray Ukraine as attacking NATO (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares video alleging Charlie Kirk's murder was AI-generated, framing it as "misinformation" to discredit Western media and sow doubt (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Netherlands found no evidence of Moscow's involvement in Polish drone incident, a direct denial for diplomatic consumption and IO (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports Estonian PM Kallas's prediction that the war will last at least two more years, which RF IO may leverage to suggest the war is stalemated or that Western support is futile (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС quotes Maria Zakharova stating Western intimidation and aggressive rhetoric have failed, and Russia has proven the impossibility of canceling Russian culture. This is a clear RF IO narrative of resilience and cultural superiority (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports the rifle used to kill Charlie Kirk was loaded with transgender and anti-fascist engraved cartridges (from WSJ), which RF IO will use to fuel internal US political division and anti-Western narratives (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares a similar photo message and caption explicitly linking the weapon to LGBT and Antifa slogans, further pushing this narrative (Confidence: HIGH). Рыбарь reports "sabotage" in Germany again, using the German flag with fire emojis, which is RF IO to portray Western instability and internal chaos (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Sweden's MFA summoned the Russian ambassador, which RF IO could spin to portray Western overreaction or diplomatic aggression (Confidence: HIGH). Операция Z (citing Военкоры Русской Весны) reports the EU's supreme representative stated the war in Ukraine will continue for at least two more years, which RF IO will leverage to portray a protracted conflict (Confidence: HIGH). Военкор Котенок reports the "Krivoy Rog schlemiel-narcofuehrer" (Zelenskyy) is cynically dragonizing Poles after drones in their airspace, portraying Ukraine as manipulative and aggressive (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports FBI is asking for public assistance to identify a figure related to the Charlie Kirk murder, which RF IO will continue to use to amplify internal US divisions (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message implying a "churka" (derogatory term for non-Slavic individuals) was the shooter, further fueling racial and political division in the US narrative (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares a message expressing outrage at Netanyahu's actions, labeling them as "barbaric" and "state terrorism." This is a significant RF IO narrative, likely designed to generate outrage and anti-Western sentiment, and possibly to deflect from RF's own actions (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA reports Zelenskyy stated that the penetration of Russian drones into Polish airspace was not accidental, which will be immediately met by RF counter-IO efforts to deflect blame (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that Ukraine has "finally recognized the first marriage between two men," which is RF IO focused on social conservative narratives to criticize Ukraine and its alignment with Western values (Confidence: HIGH). Рыбарь shares a photo message with the caption "Well, everyone ran, and so did we," clearly attempting to portray UAF forces as fleeing or demoralized, serving as direct RF IO (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Leonid Slutsky stated the drone situation in Poland increasingly resembles the MH-17 incident or the Skripal case, with the West escalating the mythical "Russian threat." This is a direct RF IO effort to deflect blame and sow doubt about Western narratives (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна shares a photo message stating that Trump needs to see that Putin is mocking him, citing Sikorski. This is a UAF-aligned IO effort that RF IO will likely counter by portraying Sikorski as anti-Russian (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a photo message stating that Putin is delighted with the results of the "air defense check" by a swarm of drones in Poland, and The Financial Times writes that this attack pushes him to go further next time. This is a UAF-aligned IO effort, but RF IO may leverage the "delight" aspect to portray Putin as strong and decisive (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova stating that Russia urges Poland to consider the consequences of closing its border with Belarus and to reconsider the decision as soon as possible. This is an RF IO effort to exert diplomatic pressure and project a stance of reason (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports France will send three Rafale fighters to patrol NATO's "eastern flank" after the drone incident in Poland (Confidence: HIGH). This will be framed by RF as NATO escalation. РБК-Україна reports that Slovakia is considering mandatory military service due to the war in Ukraine and Hungarian PM Orban (Confidence: HIGH). This will be leveraged by RF to portray internal NATO/EU divisions and the impact of the conflict on member states. Оперативний ЗСУ shares video featuring Polish FM Sikorski criticizing Putin and urging Trump to recognize Putin's intent to rebuild the Russian empire (Confidence: HIGH). This is strong UAF-aligned IO, reinforcing the threat of RF aggression and calling for unified Western response. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports UAF military personnel are concerned about changes in US aid policy (Confidence: HIGH). This is clear RF IO aimed at undermining UAF morale and Western support. Два майора shares a photo message criticizing NATO's recruitment for social media roles in Ukraine, framing it as "brainwashing" and aiming to demoralize Ukrainians (Confidence: HIGH). This is clear RF IO. ТАСС, citing Miroshnik, claims UAF units on the Serebryansk direction received direct orders to shoot at civilians (Confidence: HIGH). This is a severe and highly inflammatory RF IO accusation aimed at discrediting UAF. Рыбарь shares a photo message titled "Accidents and Non-Accidents," which is RF IO designed to create alternative narratives and deflect blame (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares photos related to the FBI investigation into the Charlie Kirk murder, including photos of the suspect and the rifle (Confidence: HIGH). This confirms RF's continued use of this event for IO. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of a young boy at a Russian youth event, discussing his father's military service and handling a firearm (Confidence: HIGH). This is a clear RF IO effort to indoctrinate youth into military culture and prepare them for service, using children in propaganda to normalize conflict. НгП раZVедка shares a photo implying a Pole is unwelcoming to Ukrainians (Confidence: HIGH). This is a targeted RF IO message to sow discord between Poland and Ukraine.
• Ukraine's desperation: Claiming Ukraine is desperate for manpower (e.g., TASS/Miroshnik claim of mobilizing 15-year-olds), money, and resources. Военкор Котенок: Georgian special services report detention of Ukrainian citizens attempting to smuggle 2.4 kg of hexogen, which RF IO will leverage to portray Ukraine as engaging in terrorism. Confirmed (Народная милиция ДНР): Active PSYOP encouraging UAF soldiers to surrender, implying desperation. (Confidence: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns' report on a UOC priest attacking military commissars in Cherkasy will be heavily exploited by RF IO to portray internal Ukrainian strife, lawlessness, and resistance to mobilization efforts, implying desperation (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports over half of drones supplied to UAF via state contracts are defective, an RF IO narrative aiming to portray UAF's poor resource management and desperation (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns' photo message "Куда хохла не целуй - везде жопа. И так у них всегда." is a vulgar, dehumanizing RF IO message aimed at portraying Ukrainians as inherently flawed and incompetent, reflecting desperation (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares a video of a captured Ukrainian reconnaissance drone ("Shark"), highlighting its markings and Ukrainian flag insignia. The presenter mentions its cost, implying UAF is wasting valuable resources, framing it as desperation (Confidence: HIGH). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports UAF military personnel are concerned about changes in US aid policy (Confidence: HIGH). This plays into the narrative of Ukraine's desperation for aid.
• Western internal decay/disunity: Heavily exploiting US domestic events (Charlie Kirk shooting, school shootings, murder of Iryna Zarutska) to portray chaos and political division. Alex Parker Returns: Russian military bloggers are emphasizing the lifting of sanctions on Belavia as a sign of progress and implied weakening of Western resolve, and a resolution to spare parts shortages. Confirmed (ТАСС): Fico's statement on not supporting sanctions against Russia unless the EC provides climate/industry proposals indicates RF IO is actively seeking and amplifying internal EU divisions. Confirmed (Два майора): Reports of "sabotage" in Germany are likely leveraged by RF IO to portray instability in Western countries. (Confidence: MEDIUM) РБК-Україна reports Trump will posthumously award Charlie Kirk the Presidential Medal of Freedom. This event, coupled with the ongoing "Charlie Kirk murder" narrative, will be used by RF IO to highlight perceived political divisions and internal instability within the US (Confidence: HIGH). Старше Эдды shares a video criticizing modern America, referencing Charlie Kirk as a martyr for traditional values, and hinting at civil war, as part of RF IO to portray Western decline and internal divisions (Confidence: HIGH). Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЭТ/ТИЕДОТТЕЕС (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) reports Finland's GDP collapsed the most in the EU, used for IO to highlight Western economic decline (Confidence: MEDIUM). TASS reports US Energy Minister Chris Wright stated the US aims to reduce Russian gas supplies to Europe to zero, replacing them with US energy resources, highlighting US strategic economic objectives (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA reports the Russian Central Bank has raised the dollar exchange rate above ₽85, potentially used for IO to suggest economic resilience despite sanctions (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС and Alex Parker Returns' reporting on the Charlie Kirk murder weapon and alleged ideological engravings reinforces this narrative of Western internal decay and political extremism (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна and ASTRA both share photos of the alleged sniper rifle used to kill Charlie Kirk, which RF IO will continue to use to fuel internal US political division (Confidence: HIGH). Рыбарь reports "sabotage" in Germany again, reinforcing RF IO to portray Western instability (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports FBI is asking for public assistance to identify a figure related to the Charlie Kirk murder, which RF IO will continue to use to amplify internal US divisions (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message implying a "churka" (derogatory term for non-Slavic individuals) was the shooter, further fueling racial and political division in the US narrative (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна shares a photo message stating that Trump needs to see that Putin is mocking him, citing Sikorski. This is a UAF-aligned IO effort that RF IO will likely try to discredit as an attempt to sow discord between Western leaders (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports that Slovakia is considering mandatory military service due to the war in Ukraine and Hungarian PM Orban (Confidence: HIGH). This is leveraged by RF to portray internal NATO/EU divisions. Colonelcassad shares photos related to the FBI investigation into the Charlie Kirk murder, including photos of the suspect and the rifle (Confidence: HIGH). This confirms RF's continued use of this event for IO.
• RF victimhood/legitimacy: Denying responsibility for Polish drone incursions, attributing UAF strikes on Donetsk to "NATO MLRS," and justifying the SMO as a "humanitarian mission." Promoting "Russian code" and military heroes. TASS: Rosgvardia's expanded role and reported combat missions will be used to emphasize the legitimacy and scale of RF's "special operation" and projecting strength. Colonelcassad: Shares an image of a Felix Dzerzhinsky statue on his 148th birthday, a historical/ideological IO message. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники: Reporting on a convicted soldier breaking his wife's skull provides an internal IO vulnerability for RF, as it depicts criminal behavior within military ranks. Новости Москвы: Promoting visibility of the ISS in Moscow is an internal IO effort to project normalcy and distract from the conflict. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition: Video featuring Ksenia Semenova, Deputy Executive Director of the Association of SVO Veterans, focusing on supporting families of fallen soldiers and veterans, is a clear internal RF IO effort to bolster morale, demonstrate care for military personnel and their families, and maintain public support for the "Special Military Operation." TASS reports writer Dmitry Bykov added to list of terrorists and extremists, demonstrating continued internal suppression of dissent. TASS reports Maria Zakharova called Alla Pugacheva's interview a "bazaar of hypocrisy," further showing internal political/cultural IO. Рыбарь shares a graphic titled "Ballast for Germany," likely anti-German IO. Воин DV promotes the re-designation of a Far Eastern Military Academy as "Guards," indicating internal morale boosting. Confirmed (ТАСС): Georgian arrests for corruption are used to paint a picture of instability in a pro-Western nation. Confirmed (Военкор Котенок): Video of Sobchak interviewing Arestovych can be used to discredit Ukrainian figures or portray them as disconnected from the realities of the war. Confirmed (AV БогомаZ): Patriotic events in Bryansk (tennis tournament) are designed to reinforce historical narratives, celebrate "victory," and boost local morale. The reopening of Krasnodar airport (ASTRA, TASS) contributes to a sense of normalcy and potentially improved quality of life for citizens in the region. Confirmed (ТАСС): Reports of scam SMS messages to Russians are framed as a general issue, without direct military links. (Confidence: MEDIUM) Confirmed (Colonelcassad): Mural in Kazan station celebrating military history is a form of internal patriotic IO. (Confidence: LOW) ТАСС states information about "Армия России" stores closing is false, which helps maintain a sense of normalcy and military strength (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС shows an exhibition of historical cartoons, including those critical of Nazi Germany and Soviet actions, likely to frame RF's current actions within a historical context of fighting "fascism" (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС provides a graphic summarizing recent RF news: Krasnodar airport opening, "Belavia" sanctions lifted, Dmitry Bykov added to extremists list, and Rosgvardia receiving tanks, all contributing to a narrative of strength and progress (Confidence: HIGH). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports tank units have been recreated within Rosgvardia and artillery firepower significantly increased, designed to project strength and legitimacy of the military effort (Confidence: HIGH). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on internal IO framing the war's impact on Russians (Confidence: HIGH). Kotsnews shares a photo message about why Alla Pugacheva should be ignored, which is internal cultural/political IO (Confidence: LOW). НгП раZVедка shares a photo message commemorating Felix Dzerzhinsky, reinforcing historical figures for ideological purposes (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС quotes Maria Zakharova stating Western intimidation has failed and Russia has proven the impossibility of canceling Russian culture, strongly pushing a narrative of Russian victimhood, resilience, and cultural legitimacy (Confidence: HIGH). Воин DV celebrating specialists of the RF Armed Forces' educational work bodies demonstrates internal IO for morale and legitimization (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports on Japan's centers closure due to "violations," portraying RF as acting legitimately against perceived foreign threats (Confidence: HIGH). Fighterbomber shares a photo of a banner with "We are for Russia," likely for internal messaging to reinforce unity (Confidence: LOW - military significance). ТАСС reports on a successful space launch to the ISS, a clear internal IO effort to project Russian scientific and technological prowess, contributing to national pride and morale (Confidence: HIGH). Новости Москвы video trailer for a TV series, while fictional, contributes to portraying normalcy and distracting from the conflict (Confidence: HIGH). TASS reports the Russian Cabinet of Ministers increased military personnel salaries, clearly demonstrating an intent to maintain morale and retention (Confidence: HIGH). Военкор Котенок shares a news summary for September 11, 2025, which serves as a general RF internal IO tool (Confidence: HIGH). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares photo messages indicating projects "Faith in the SVO" and "History of one task" are being featured on federal channels (Confidence: LOW - military significance). ТАСС shares photo messages of the Russian Geographical Society photo contest winners, a clear internal IO effort to promote national identity and soft power (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС, citing Miroshnik, claims UAF units on the Serebryansk direction received direct orders to shoot at civilians (Confidence: HIGH). This is a severe RF IO accusation to portray RF as victims of UAF war crimes. Рыбарь shares a photo message titled "Accidents and Non-Accidents," which is RF IO to deflect blame and portray RF as a victim (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of a young boy at a Russian youth event, discussing his father's military service and handling a firearm (Confidence: HIGH). This is a clear RF IO effort to indoctrinate youth into military culture and prepare them for service, using children in propaganda to normalize conflict and promote RF legitimacy. НгП раZVедка shares a photo implying a Pole is unwelcoming to Ukrainians (Confidence: HIGH). This is a targeted RF IO message to sow discord between Poland and Ukraine, and boost internal RF sentiment.
• UAF war crimes: Disseminating POW testimonies and disillusioned mercenary accounts to accuse Ukraine of mistreatment. AV БогомаZ reports Ukrainian FPV drones attacked a civilian vehicle in Bryansk Oblast, which, if confirmed, would be used by RF IO to accuse UAF of war crimes or terrorism against civilians (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports UAF attacked ZNPP training center, which RF will leverage to accuse UAF of war crimes and reckless behavior towards nuclear safety (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA reports UAF attacks in Belgorod Oblast causing civilian casualties. RF IO will use this to accuse UAF of war crimes (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС, citing Miroshnik, claims UAF units on the Serebryansk direction received direct orders to shoot at civilians (Confidence: HIGH). This is a severe RF IO accusation aimed at portraying UAF as committing war crimes.
• Technological superiority: Showcasing domestic drone development ("Dronnitsa," MCHS ZALA ZARYA UAVs, new special UAV detachment with long-range C2) and highlighting partner nation advancements (China's PD-2900 drone). Басурин о главном claims Russian holding Rosele (Rostec) has begun supplying modernized anti-drone systems, promoting RF technological advancement. Confirmed (Fighterbomber): RF IO claims UAF is wasting anti-aircraft missiles on "friendly fire," attempting to portray UAF incompetence. (Confidence: MEDIUM) Confirmed (Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition): RF milbloggers showcase "Upyr" drone successfully evading UAF interceptor, promoting RF drone capability. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Военкор Котенок): RF milblogger claims RF Air-Space Forces "downed" a UAF Su-27, promoting RF air superiority. (Confidence: HIGH) WarGonzo reports a Ukrainian "Yozhka" drone shot down near Lyman, which RF IO will use to promote their counter-drone capabilities (Confidence: MEDIUM). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition shares drone footage of a Romanian APR-40 MLRS being hit by a Russian drone, highlighting RF drone capabilities and successful targeting (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports over half of drones supplied to UAF via state contracts are defective, an RF IO narrative aiming to suggest UAF technological inferiority (Confidence: HIGH). STERNENKO shares video of Ukrainian special forces destroying an RF BMD-3, which RF IO will likely attempt to counter or discredit (Confidence: HIGH). Kotsnews drone footage of 'Vega' unit operations, highlighting RF armored vehicles, ISR, and targeting capabilities, clearly promotes RF technological and operational superiority (Confidence: HIGH). Kadyrov_95's video demonstrating "West-AHMAT" battalion's FPV drone operations promotes RF's tactical drone capabilities (Confidence: HIGH). Kotsnews shares a photo message depicting a destroyed military vehicle with a "Z" symbol, which is RF IO portraying UAF losses or RF success (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares a video of a Lancet drone targeting an M-198 howitzer, which promotes RF's precision strike and counter-battery capabilities (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares a video of a captured Ukrainian reconnaissance drone ("Shark"), stating it was destroyed by RF "Fever" fighters. This promotes RF counter-UAV and air defense capabilities (Confidence: HIGH). Операция Z shares a compilation of drone footage showcasing the identification and engagement of various enemy assets, including a pickup truck, a Leopard-1 tank, artillery, an unknown vehicle, and an antenna, as well as a 'BABA-YAGA' drone. This clearly promotes RF's advanced ISR and targeting capabilities (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a thermal imaging drone video showing a series of artillery strikes impacting what appear to be Russian military positions. This promotes RF's large-scale fire and targeting capabilities (Confidence: HIGH).

4.2. Public sentiment and morale factors (Confidence: HIGH)

• Ukrainian: Civilian morale is under severe strain due to persistent deep strikes on critical and civilian infrastructure. However, the high UAF air defense interception rates, successful resistance operations (ATESH), and crucially, the successful HUR strike on the Black Sea Fleet vessel, provide counterpoints for resilience and demonstrate Ukrainian effectiveness. The GSU's enemy loss figures are regularly published to boost morale. There is strong national unity and a desire for accountability for RF actions. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade's recruitment campaign and STERNENKO's call for donations demonstrate continued proactive engagement and a resilient spirit. STERNENKO: Video showcasing UAF drones successfully targeting RF mechanized advance will boost morale and confidence in UAF capabilities. Оперативний ЗСУ: Showcasing the "Lyubart" brigade will boost morale and reinforce the image of elite, effective UAF units. Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦: Photos with Finnish President Alexander Stubb reinforce strong international support, boosting morale. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video highlights effective UAF "waiting drones" as a UAF tactical adaptation. The meeting of the Coordination Headquarters for POWs with Azov families demonstrates continued support for UAF personnel and their families, a key morale factor. The demining operations in Kharkiv Oblast provide a positive narrative of securing liberated territories and protecting civilians. Confirmed (Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"): Video of public solidarity and support for UAF boosts national unity and morale. Confirmed (Оперативний ЗСУ): Reporting on an arrest in Shargorod for the murder of two children, while tragic, also demonstrates the government's commitment to justice and internal order, which can contribute to public trust. Confirmed (Офіс Генерального прокурора): Prosecutorial action against a NABU official for alleged corruption can boost public trust in rule of law. (Confidence: HIGH) The loss of a Su-27 pilot, Major Borovyk, will be a blow to morale but will likely be framed as a heroic sacrifice, maintaining public resolve. Confirmed (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦): Video of a mother discussing her son's death in the war, framing it as a "feat" and "transition." This could be a UAF IO opportunity to highlight the human cost of the war and the resilience of Ukrainian people. (Confidence: HIGH) Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА photo message of drones being sent to the front can boost morale by showing continued support and resupply for frontline units (Confidence: HIGH). STERNENKO reports 20 enemy drones shot down by HUR MOD specialists, reinforcing a sense of effectiveness and security (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of Shahed drone debris in Odesa, highlighting successful defense efforts (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Ukrainian military personnel will train Polish military personnel on shooting down drones, boosting national pride and confidence in UAF expertise (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ reports a UAF kamikaze drone clearing a roadblock with three FPV "waiting drones," demonstrating effective UAF counter-drone and offensive drone operations (Confidence: HIGH). STERNENKO announces the "Man in the Military" award, a clear morale-boosting initiative to recognize valor (Confidence: HIGH). Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими reports a meeting with families of 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade defenders, demonstrating continued support for UAF personnel (Confidence: HIGH). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video commemorating the 2022 liberation of territory by the Khartia unit, reinforcing past UAF successes and national pride (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares photos of officials working in Zaporizhzhia, demonstrating governmental presence and reconstruction efforts, reinforcing stability and commitment (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports a new suspicion against a former minister from Yanukovych's time, reinforcing accountability (Confidence: HIGH). STERNENKO shares video of Ukrainian special forces destroying an RF BMD-3, boosting morale through demonstration of effective action (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an air raid alert lifted, indicating successful air defense (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports air threat lifted for Odesa Oblast (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirming the successful destruction of a bridge in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, will significantly boost UAF and civilian morale by demonstrating offensive capabilities beyond the border (Confidence: HIGH). Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА's update on Kharkiv, emphasizing restoration and evacuation efforts, will reassure the civilian population and boost morale (Confidence: HIGH). Олександр Вілкул's briefing indicates continued governmental functioning and response to military events, reinforcing national readiness (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports a 65-year-old man wounded in Polohy Raion, which, while tragic, can also galvanize resolve against RF aggression (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports several released Belarusian political prisoners refusing expulsion to Lithuania, which could be leveraged to boost morale by undermining Belarus's "goodwill" narrative and highlighting commitment to individual rights (Confidence: HIGH). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing widespread destruction in Vovchansk will reinforce the human cost of the war, potentially strengthening resolve and national unity (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares a video depicting an altercation between civilians and at least one military personnel in what appears to be Kharkiv at night. The individual in uniform seems to be attempting to manage the situation (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video showing a traumatic amputation of a hand, which, while grim, can also serve to highlight the sacrifices made by UAF personnel and galvanize support (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video compilation of FPV drone ambushes, which will boost UAF morale by showcasing effective offensive actions (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports an "underground" school opened in Vilnyansk, demonstrating community resilience and adaptive governance, boosting civilian morale (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA reports Zelenskyy stated the drone incursions into Poland were not accidental, which can boost morale by confirming the deliberate nature of RF aggression and galvanizing resolve (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна shares a photo message stating that Trump needs to see that Putin is mocking him, citing Sikorski. This is a UAF-aligned IO effort to boost morale by highlighting perceived RF disrespect for Western leaders (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a photo message stating that Putin is delighted with the results of the "air defense check" by a swarm of drones in Poland, and The Financial Times writes that this attack pushes him to go further next time. This is a UAF-aligned IO effort to galvanize support by highlighting RF's aggressive intentions (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a Ukrainian military operation, which demonstrates UAF effectiveness and can boost morale (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video showing successful UAF drone operations, which directly boosts morale (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares a photo message with text about the pilot who died. This official recognition of fallen heroes is crucial for morale (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports Rheinmetall will deploy shell production in a safe region of Ukraine (Confidence: HIGH). This is a major morale boost, signaling long-term support and self-sufficiency. Zelenskiy / Official and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 share video of President Zelenskyy meeting with US Special Representative General Keith Kellogg, which demonstrates continued high-level support and boosts morale (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ shares similar video, confirming this morale boost (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ shares video featuring Polish FM Sikorski criticizing Putin, which could boost UAF morale by showing Western leaders condemning RF aggression (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ shares multiple photos from the international exhibition DSEI 2025 in London, highlighting UAF's efforts to secure future capabilities and international partnerships, which can boost morale (Confidence: HIGH). Zelenskiy / Official shares video and photos of a meeting with Danish, Finnish, and Estonian officials (Confidence: HIGH). This demonstrates continued international support, boosting morale. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of President Zelenskyy meeting with US Ambassador Bridget Brink and US Special Representative General Keith Kellogg (Confidence: HIGH). This further reinforces morale by highlighting high-level US diplomatic support.
• Russian: RF media efforts aim to maintain a sense of normalcy and portray the war as a righteous and successful endeavor. The high claimed interception rates of Ukrainian UAVs over RF territory are intended to reassure the public. Warnings from officials like the Belgorod governor about mass drone attacks indicate a heightened state of alert and potential public fear. TASS: Rosgvardia's expanded role and successes will be used to boost domestic morale and project strength. Colonelcassad: Commemorating Dzerzhinsky is an ideological message aimed at reinforcing historical narratives and national identity. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники: Reporting on a convicted soldier breaking his wife's skull could negatively impact morale and public perception of military discipline, though it's an isolated incident. Новости Москвы: Promoting visibility of the ISS in Moscow is an internal IO effort to project normalcy and distract from the conflict. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition: Focus on supporting SVO veterans and their families aims to bolster public morale, demonstrate state care, and reinforce support for the "Special Military Operation." TASS listing Bykov as terrorist/extremist, and Zakharova's comments on Pugacheva's interview are aimed at suppressing dissent and controlling public narrative. Воин DV promoting Far Eastern Military Academy status, indicates efforts to boost internal military morale. Басурин о главном's video of a child speaking is a form of emotional propaganda targeting internal audiences. Confirmed (AV БогомаZ): Patriotic events in Bryansk (tennis tournament) are designed to reinforce historical narratives, celebrate "victory," and boost local morale. The reopening of Krasnodar airport (ASTRA, TASS, ТАСС) contributes to a sense of normalcy and potentially improved quality of life for citizens in the region. Confirmed (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС): Video of neglected graves of fallen Russian soldiers in Krasnoyarsk Krai could significantly harm RF morale and legitimacy if widely circulated internally. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (ТАСС): Mi-8 hard landing in Kaliningrad and the lack of casualties will be used to reassure the public about safety. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (ТАСС): Reports of scam SMS messages could indicate a general public concern about financial security, which could be leveraged by internal IO for vigilance narratives. (Confidence: MEDIUM) Confirmed (Kotsnews): "Baltic states ask the US not to abandon them" could be used to reinforce a narrative of Russian strength and Western weakness. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition): Dismissal of Finnish President Stubb's statements aims to maintain a positive internal narrative about the war's progress. (Confidence: HIGH) ТАСС states information about "Армия России" stores closing is false, which helps maintain a sense of normalcy and military strength (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns attributes statements to Lukashenko thanking Trump for "peace efforts," which can be used to promote a narrative of peace efforts and reduce internal anxieties (Confidence: HIGH). Kotsnews video with speaker claiming NATO failed to respond to drone attack on Poland is designed to boost internal morale by portraying RF military superiority (Confidence: HIGH). Старше Эдды's post and video criticizing Western values and portraying internal US "civil war" can boost internal morale by creating a narrative of Russian moral superiority and Western decline (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС shows an exhibition of historical cartoons, likely to reinforce patriotic narratives and historical grievances (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС graphic summarizing recent RF news, including Rosgvardia enhancements, projects strength and progress, boosting internal morale (Confidence: HIGH). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports on Rosgvardia's enhanced capabilities with tanks and increased artillery, intended to project strength and competence, boosting internal morale (Confidence: HIGH). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on internal IO framing the war's impact on Russians (Confidence: HIGH). Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЭТ/ТИЕДОТТЕЕТ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) reports Finland's GDP collapsed the most in the EU, used for IO to highlight Western economic decline and thus boost internal morale (Confidence: MEDIUM). ASTRA reports the Russian Central Bank has raised the dollar exchange rate above ₽85, which could be spun for internal IO as economic resilience (Confidence: HIGH). Kotsnews shares a photo message about why Alla Pugacheva should be ignored, which is internal cultural/political IO (Confidence: LOW). Alex Parker Returns shares video alleging Charlie Kirk's murder was AI-generated, which is RF IO to sow distrust and potentially demoralize Western audiences (Confidence: HIGH). НгП раZVедка shares a photo message commemorating Felix Dzerzhinsky, used to boost internal morale and reinforce ideological narratives (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Netherlands found no evidence of Moscow's involvement in Polish drone incident, which aims to reduce internal pressure and project innocence (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports Estonian PM Kallas's prediction that the war will last at least two more years, which could be leveraged by RF to imply their long-term resolve (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares video from a military vehicle, which could be internal morale boosting (Confidence: LOW). Alex Parker Returns shares video of a street scene, likely Avdiivka, with a text overlay "Avdeevsky sprinter" (Confidence: LOW). ТАСС quotes Maria Zakharova on Western intimidation failing, which boosts morale by reinforcing a narrative of Russian strength and resilience against external pressure (Confidence: HIGH). Воин DV celebrating specialists of the RF Armed Forces' educational work bodies is a clear morale-boosting effort (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports on Japan's centers closure due to "violations," which can be used to reassure the public that the government is protecting national interests from perceived foreign threats (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports on a successful space launch to the ISS, a clear internal IO effort to project Russian scientific and technological prowess, contributing to national pride and morale (Confidence: HIGH). Новости Москвы reports discussions to lower the key interest rate, which, if implemented, could be used to project economic stability and alleviate public financial concerns, thus boosting morale (Confidence: LOW). Новости Москвы video trailer for a TV series, while fictional, contributes to maintaining normalcy and internal stability (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns' message expressing outrage at Netanyahu's actions, while externally focused, also serves to consolidate anti-Western sentiment internally, boosting morale (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's report on Ukraine recognizing same-sex marriage, while external criticism, reinforces internal social conservative values, boosting morale among those who align with this viewpoint (Confidence: HIGH). Рыбарь's photo message with the caption "Well, everyone ran, and so did we," attempts to boost RF morale by portraying UAF as fleeing (Confidence: HIGH). НгП раZVедка's celebratory message will boost internal RF morale (Confidence: MEDIUM). ТАСС reports the Russian Cabinet of Ministers increased military personnel salaries, a direct measure to boost morale and retention (Confidence: HIGH). Kotsnews's photo message depicting a destroyed military vehicle with a "Z" symbol will boost RF morale by portraying UAF losses or RF success (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad's photos of an UAZ "Bukhanka" being prepared for the 135th Assault Battalion, supported by subscribers, demonstrates community support for the military, boosting morale (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports UAF attacked ZNPP training center, which RF will leverage to galvanize public support against perceived UAF recklessness (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA reports UAF attacks in Belgorod Oblast causing civilian casualties, which RF will use to rally public support against UAF and portray its own population as victims (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Leonid Slutsky stated the drone situation in Poland increasingly resembles the MH-17 incident or the Skripal case, with the West escalating the mythical "Russian threat." This aims to galvanize public support by portraying Russia as under threat from a malicious West (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova stating that Russia urges Poland to reconsider closing its border with Belarus. This aims to project Russia as a reasonable actor and Poland as escalating, boosting public perception of RF's diplomatic efforts (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares a video of a Lancet drone targeting an M-198 howitzer, which boosts morale by showcasing successful RF military operations (Confidence: HIGH). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing battlefield destruction and casualties, which if seen internally could negatively impact morale, but if framed as UAF losses could boost morale (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares a video of a captured Ukrainian reconnaissance drone ("Shark"), which can boost internal morale by demonstrating RF's effectiveness against UAF technology (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a thermal imaging drone video showing successful artillery strikes on RF military positions. This will boost internal morale by showcasing RF military effectiveness (Confidence: HIGH). Военкор Котенок shares a news summary for September 11, 2025, which provides a general update to maintain public engagement (Confidence: HIGH). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares photo messages indicating projects "Faith in the SVO" and "History of one task" are being featured on federal channels (Confidence: LOW - military significance). ТАСС shares photo messages of the Russian Geographical Society photo contest winners, which serve as internal IO to promote national pride and normalcy (Confidence: HIGH). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports UAF military personnel are concerned about changes in US aid policy (Confidence: HIGH). If this is widely believed internally, it could damage RF morale by suggesting a weakening opponent. Два майора shares a video showing a wounded soldier receiving medical attention in a mobile medical unit (Confidence: HIGH). This demonstrates continued efforts to address combat casualties, which can reassure the public. Colonelcassad shares a video depicting soldiers in a camp environment (Confidence: HIGH). This offers a glimpse into soldier morale and daily life. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of a young boy at a Russian youth event, discussing his father's military service and handling a firearm (Confidence: HIGH). This is a clear RF IO effort to normalize military service and boost patriotic sentiment among youth. НгП раZVедка shares a photo implying a Pole is unwelcoming to Ukrainians (Confidence: HIGH). This is intended to boost internal RF morale by portraying external division and hostility towards Ukrainians.

4.3. International support and diplomatic developments (Confidence: HIGH)

• Strengthened NATO/EU unity: The deliberate RF drone incursions into Poland and the subsequent NATO Article 4 consultation, along with immediate commitments of air defense assets from Sweden and Netherlands, demonstrate a hardening of NATO's stance. The EU's condemnation and announced increased sanctions against RF further highlight unified international resolve. Poland's urgent request for more air defense from NATO, specifically Patriot systems, signals continued commitment but also heightened concern. Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania have closed their airspaces along the border with Belarus and Russia indefinitely, and Poland has notified Belarus of the closure of all remaining border crossings with Belarus from 12 SEP 25, including road and rail points. Confirmed (ТАСС, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Операція Z, Оперативний ЗСУ): Netherlands MFA summoned the Russian ambassador regarding the drone incident over Poland, indicating a unified diplomatic response from NATO members. Multiple sources confirm drones also entered Lithuanian airspace, with some believed to be heading towards the NATO base in Rzeszów. Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO: Sweden has provided its 20th package of military aid to Ukraine ($836M), and plans to allocate $4.276 billion annually for 2026-2027, demonstrating strong, sustained military support. ТАСС reports Britain and France offered to send Eurofighter and Rafale fighters to Poland in connection with the drone incident. Confirmed (РБК-Україна): Ukraine has reacted to the "cynical statement" by the Slovakian Foreign Minister regarding drones in Poland, indicating ongoing diplomatic efforts to counter RF narratives and maintain international unity. Confirmed (Colonelcassad): US to lift some sanctions on Belarus, including "Belavia," indicating a shift in US diplomatic engagement with Belarus. Confirmed (ТАСС): Polish FM Radoslaw Sikorski emotionally urged Poles not to visit Russia and Belarus. (Confidence: HIGH)** Confirmed (Операция Z): Bloomberg reports NATO is strengthening its eastern flank, confirming allied response to the drone incident. (Confidence: HIGH) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ report Poland is massing 40,000 troops to its borders with Russia and Belarus, demonstrating a significant hardening of NATO's eastern flank and a clear, unified response to RF hybrid actions (Confidence: HIGH). Операция Z also reports this, linking it to the upcoming "West-2025" military exercises (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Ukrainian military personnel will train Polish military personnel on drone interception, signifying a strengthening of military cooperation between Ukraine and a NATO member (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Slovak PM Fico stated Slovakia rejects the deployment of Western troops in Ukraine, which indicates a point of disunity within NATO/EU (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA confirms Polish deployment of 40,000 troops, reinforcing the strengthening of NATO's eastern flank (Confidence: HIGH). Оперативний ЗСУ shares Estonian PM Kallas's prediction that the war will last at least two more years, which, while a long-term outlook, represents a statement of continued Western resolve (Confidence: HIGH). ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 confirms Poland sending 40,000 troops to the border ahead of "West-2025" exercises (Confidence: HIGH). Два майора reports Reuters as stating Poland will send its military to Ukraine to train on drone interception (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС confirms that Poland will deploy 40,000 troops to the border with Belarus in the coming days, citing Polish Deputy Minister of Defense Cezary Tomczyk (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Sweden's MFA summoned the Russian ambassador, further indicating unified diplomatic response from NATO members to RF aggression (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна shares a photo message stating that Britain and France want to strengthen NATO's eastern flank with Rafale and Eurofighter jets (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Leonid Slutsky stated the drone situation in Poland increasingly resembles the MH-17 incident or the Skripal case, with the West escalating the mythical "Russian threat." This indicates RF's attempt to use historical events to dilute international condemnation (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна shares a photo message stating that Trump needs to see that Putin is mocking him, citing Sikorski. This highlights a perceived lack of respect from Putin towards Western leaders (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a photo message stating that Putin is delighted with the results of the "air defense check" by a swarm of drones in Poland, and The Financial Times writes that this attack pushes him to go further next time. This highlights growing concern about RF's aggressive intentions within NATO (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova stating that Russia urges Poland to consider the consequences of closing its border with Belarus and to reconsider the decision as soon as possible. This highlights RF's diplomatic pressure tactics against NATO members (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports France will send three Rafale fighters to patrol NATO's "eastern flank" after the drone incident in Poland (Confidence: HIGH). This demonstrates a strengthening of NATO's air defense capabilities and a unified response. РБК-Україна reports that Slovakia is considering mandatory military service due to the war in Ukraine and Hungarian PM Orban (Confidence: HIGH). This indicates the potential for increased military readiness among NATO/EU states due to the conflict. ASTRA reports that France will send three Rafale fighters to patrol NATO's "eastern flank" following the drone incursions into Poland (Confidence: HIGH). This further confirms the strengthening of NATO's eastern flank. РБК-Україна reports that French President Macron has sent three Rafale fighters to Poland in response to the drone attacks (Confidence: HIGH). This reinforces the immediate military response from NATO members. STERNENKO shares video of Polish FM Sikorski criticizing Putin and urging Trump to recognize Putin's intent to rebuild the Russian empire (Confidence: HIGH). This strengthens international support by calling for a unified front against RF.
• Continued US support: The US House of Representatives approved $400 million in aid for Ukraine for FY226, indicating continued financial commitment. РБК-Україна: Lukashenko released 52 more political prisoners following US diplomatic engagement, indicating a potential shift in US engagement with Belarus, possibly aimed at reducing Belarusian dependence on Russia. Confirmed (Colonelcassad): US to lift some sanctions on Belarus, including "Belavia," further reinforcing a potential shift in US-Belarus relations. Confirmed (Басурин о главном): US reportedly wants to return Jackson-Vanik amendment, which could signal a hardening US stance on human rights, with potential diplomatic implications. (Confidence: MEDIUM) Alex Parker Returns attributes statements to Lukashenko thanking Trump for "peace efforts" and pardoning foreign citizens, which indicates direct US diplomatic engagement with Belarus (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports Trump will posthumously award Charlie Kirk the Presidential Medal of Freedom, an internal US political event that could impact US domestic political dynamics around foreign policy (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports US Energy Minister Chris Wright stated the US aims to reduce Russian gas supplies to Europe to zero, replacing them with US energy resources, highlighting US strategic economic objectives (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports the US Treasury Department issued a general license for financial transactions with Belarusian airline "Belavia" and its subsidiaries. This confirms a significant US diplomatic move towards Belarus (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports three Polish citizens and eight Belarusians cooperating with Polish media were among the 52 prisoners released by Lukashenko, as stated by Poland's MFA, further underscoring the impact of US diplomatic engagement (Confidence: HIGH). Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 and Оперативний ЗСУ share video of President Zelenskyy meeting with US Special Representative General Keith Kellogg, confirming continued high-level US support and diplomatic engagement (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of President Zelenskyy meeting with US Ambassador Bridget Brink and US Special Representative General Keith Kellogg (Confidence: HIGH). This further confirms continued US diplomatic support.
• Deepening partnerships: China's advancements in drone technology (PD-2900) and exercises ("swarm drones") are being observed by RF, signaling potential future military-technological cooperation. Armenia states it is not considering removing the Russian military base, indicating stability in some RF regional alliances. ТАСС reports direct railway connection between Almaty and Moscow will resume, indicating normalized international relations for RF with Central Asian partners (Confidence: HIGH).
• Diplomatic outreach: Zelenskiy's engagement with key European leaders and NATO leadership underscores the continued importance of diplomatic efforts. Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦: Photos of President Zelenskyy with Finnish President Alexander Stubb highlight strong diplomatic ties. РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Hungarian Foreign Minister's accusations against Kyiv indicate diplomatic friction, which could be exploited by RF to weaken EU unity. Confirmed (ТАСС): Georgian arrests for corruption, Fico's statement on sanctions, are likely to be leveraged by RF to show discord among Ukraine's potential allies or Western partners. РБК-Україна reports Ukraine and Hungary have agreed on the agenda for a dialogue, indicating progress in diplomatic relations despite previous friction (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Italian ambassador is completing diplomatic mission in Moscow, a routine diplomatic event (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports direct railway connection between Almaty and Moscow will resume, indicating normalized international relations for RF with Central Asian partners (Confidence: HIGH). Zelenskiy / Official and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 share President Zelenskyy's statements on upcoming UN General Assembly meetings, including the International Crimea Platform and an event on abducted Ukrainian children (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Sweden's MFA summoned the Russian ambassador, further indicating continued diplomatic pressure on RF from European nations (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Russia's MFA received advance notice from Japan's embassy about the liquidation of "Japanese Centers" and that inspections revealed numerous violations. This is a diplomatic development reflecting worsening Russia-Japan relations (Confidence: HIGH). Zelenskiy / Official shares video and photos of a meeting with Danish, Finnish, and Estonian officials (Confidence: HIGH). This confirms continued high-level diplomatic engagement from key European partners. Оперативний ЗСУ shares multiple photos from the international exhibition DSEI 2025 in London, promoting Ukraine's engagement with global defense industries and securing future capabilities and partnerships (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of President Zelenskyy meeting with US Ambassador Bridget Brink and US Special Representative General Keith Kellogg (Confidence: HIGH). This reinforces strong diplomatic messaging.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most likely enemy courses of action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

• MLCOA 1: Intensify Ground Offensive on Pokrovsk Axis and Exploit Dnipropetrovsk Offensive (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF main effort will remain the exploitation of the Pokrovsk breakthrough. Expect attempts to consolidate gains in Muravka, deepen penetration into Pokrovsk urban areas, and commit reserves to widen the salient, pushing towards Udachnoye. CRITICALLY, expect RF to immediately capitalize on the claimed "liberation" of Sosnovka to establish a new operational salient and attempt to encircle UAF forces in Velykomykhailivka, supported by aviation and potentially newly equipped Rosgvardia units. RF will continue pressure on Stepnohirsk. Continued high-tempo probing attacks across other axes will aim to fix UAF reserves. Continued new mechanized offensives in directions like Kostiantynivka are highly probable. Confirmed (Colonelcassad): Continued offensive on Lyman direction, with assaults on Zarechnoye. Colonelcassad's report of expelling the enemy from Katerynivka and advancing towards Konstantinovka further confirms this COA (Confidence: HIGH). MoD Russia's claim of neutralizing a UAF UAV command post by a T-90M tank in Krasny Liman direction suggests an ongoing effort to degrade UAF C2 to facilitate ground advances (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video from "enemy publics" showing strikes on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast confirms offensive intent and actions in this new salient (Confidence: HIGH). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports tank units recreated within Rosgvardia will bolster this ground offensive capability (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns' analysis of Rosgvardia exercises further supports this (Confidence: HIGH). Воин DV's video of assault group training confirms readiness for such operations (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports a strike on a "Navoz" deployment point in the Sloviansk direction, indicating continued tactical strikes (Confidence: MEDIUM). Операция Z (citing Военкоры Русской Весны) further confirms Rosgvardia's enhanced combat potential for ground offensives (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports sustained artillery and drone strikes on Nikopol region (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo from "Dnepropetrovsk direction" reinforces RF intent for sustained operations in this new salient (Confidence: HIGH). Kotsnews drone footage of 'Vega' unit operations suggests continued reconnaissance and targeting of UAF positions to support ground advances (Confidence: HIGH). Kadyrov_95 video confirms "West-AHMAT" battalion operating with FPV drones in Vovchansk, supporting sustained pressure on this urban area (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad shares video showing a Lancet drone targeting an M-198 towed howitzer. This indicates a focus on degrading UAF artillery to support ground advances (Confidence: HIGH). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showing extensive battlefield destruction and casualties, consistent with an intensified ground offensive (Confidence: HIGH). Операция Z shares a compilation of drone footage showcasing the identification and engagement of various enemy assets, indicating continued RF efforts to clear UAF resistance for ground advances (Confidence: HIGH). Colonelcassad's map overlay on the Borovskoe direction confirms RF's intention to maintain offensive pressure on this axis (Confidence: HIGH). Два майора shares a map confirming "Бои в окрестностях Константиновки", reinforcing RF's commitment to this offensive (Confidence: HIGH).
• MLCOA 2: Sustained Massed Air Strikes on DIB, Critical, and Civilian Infrastructure (HIGH CONFIDENCE): After a potential short regeneration period from the previous mass strike, RF will resume high-volume Shahed UAV and missile strikes, with a particular focus on degrading Ukrainian DIB and critical energy infrastructure. These strikes will be designed to overwhelm UAF air defenses. Confirmed (Повітряні Силі ЗС України): Expect new UAV groups entering southern Zaporizhzhia and KAB launches on Sumy, Northern Kharkiv, and Donetsk, indicating continued air campaign intensity against both front-line and border regions, likely supported by modernized anti-drone systems. Confirmed (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Kotsnews): Continued tactical drone-on-drone combat and anti-drone efforts will be a feature. (Confidence: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns' photo message implying future strikes on Ukrainian musical schools aligns with this COA as a psychological component (Confidence: MEDIUM). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video from "enemy publics" showing strikes on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicates continued air/drone strike activity to support ground advances (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS detailing extended range of "Gerbera" drones suggests an enhanced capability for such strikes (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports sustained artillery and drone strikes on Nikopol region (Confidence: HIGH). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares video of a significant explosion in Kramatorsk, indicating continued FPV drone strikes on urban targets (Confidence: HIGH). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports civilian casualty in Polohy Raion due to enemy attack, reinforcing that this COA includes targeting civilian areas (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV south of Zaporizhzhia, moving towards the city, indicating continued drone strike operations (Confidence: HIGH). AV БогомаZ reports Ukrainian FPV drones attacked a civilian vehicle in Bryansk Oblast, which, if confirmed, would indicate a continued targeting of border regions (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a reconnaissance UAV in central Chernihiv Oblast, indicating continued ISR prior to potential strikes (Confidence: HIGH). TASS reports UAF attacked ZNPP training center, which RF will use to justify further strikes on infrastructure (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA reports UAF attacks in Belgorod Oblast causing civilian casualties, which RF will use to justify further strikes on civilian targets in Ukraine (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a thermal imaging drone video showing a series of artillery strikes impacting what appear to be Russian military positions. This indicates continued large-scale fire missions (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast, confirming continued air campaign intensity (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV in northern Kharkiv Oblast, moving southwest (towards Kharkiv), indicating continued drone strike operations against border regions and urban centers (Confidence: HIGH). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV south of Odesa, indicating continued drone strike operations (Confidence: HIGH).
• MLCOA 3: Escalated Hybrid Operations Against NATO (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF will continue deliberate drone incursions into Polish, Latvian, and Lithuanian airspace, particularly targeting areas near critical logistics hubs and military installations (e.g., Rzeszów). They will utilize a mix of "Gerbera" decoys and combat Shaheds to test NATO's ROE, gather ISR, and generate diplomatic/political friction. Expect continued aggressive IO to deflect blame and mock NATO's response. The summoning of the Russian ambassador by Netherlands MFA will be met with further denials and counter-IO. RF will exploit offers of fighter jets to Poland to frame NATO as escalatory. Confirmed (ТАСС): RF will use Polish FM Sikorski's statements for IO purposes, framing them as escalatory. (Confidence: HIGH) Kotsnews video is an example of direct RF IO attempting to frame NATO's response as weak, which will be part of this COA (Confidence: HIGH). Poland massing 40,000 troops to its borders with Russia and Belarus will be used by RF IO to portray NATO escalation (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS outlining extended range "Gerbera" drones and their objective to close Rzeszow airbase further confirms this COA (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA confirms Polish deployment of 40,000 troops, reinforcing this COA (Confidence: HIGH). ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 confirms Poland's troop deployment (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Sweden's MFA summoned the Russian ambassador, indicating continued diplomatic friction stemming from these hybrid operations (Confidence: HIGH). TASS confirms Poland's deployment of 40,000 troops to the border with Belarus, reinforcing RF's narrative of NATO escalation (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Leonid Slutsky stated the drone situation in Poland increasingly resembles the MH-17 incident or the Skripal case, with the West escalating the mythical "Russian threat." This indicates a continued COA of deflecting blame and creating counter-narratives (Confidence: HIGH). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a photo message stating that Putin is delighted with the results of the "air defense check" by a swarm of drones in Poland, and The Financial Times writes that this attack pushes him to go further next time. This reinforces the COA of escalating hybrid warfare against NATO (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova stating that Russia urges Poland to consider the consequences of closing its border with Belarus and to reconsider the decision as soon as possible. This indicates a COA of applying diplomatic pressure and sowing discord (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports France will send three Rafale fighters to patrol NATO's "eastern flank" after the drone incident in Poland (Confidence: HIGH). This deployment of NATO air assets will likely be met with continued RF probing and IO. ASTRA and РБК-Україна report France sending three Rafale fighters to Poland. This confirms the likelihood of continued probing and NATO reinforcement.
  • MLCOA 4: Enhanced IO to Undermine Ukrainian/Western Cohesion (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF will aggressively push narratives blaming Ukraine for the Polish drone incursions (with new narratives implicating Baltic states), justifying the SMO as a "humanitarian mission," amplifying alleged Western hypocrisy/disunity, and exploiting internal RF social issues. Confirmed (Операция Z, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, РБК-Україна): Immediate IO around Zelenskyy's statements, Lavrov's comments, and Hungarian FM's accusations will aim to sow discord and deflect blame. Internal IO will continue to suppress dissent (e.g., Bykov, Pugacheva) and promote military strength and morale (e.g., military academy status, veteran support). Confirmed (ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, РБК-Україна, AV БогомаZ): Continued exploitation of Georgian political events, Arestovych interview, Slovakian FM's statements, and Fico's comments to sow discord. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Народная милиция ДНР): Continued PSYOP to undermine UAF morale. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition): RF milbloggers will continue to dismiss critical statements from Western leaders. (Confidence: HIGH) Alex Parker Returns' statements from Lukashenko thanking Trump for "peace efforts" will be used to influence US public opinion and create perceived divisions (Confidence: HIGH). Старше Эдды's post and video criticizing Western values and portraying internal US "civil war" will continue to be amplified (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns' photo message "Договорняка не будет говорили они. А это тогда что?" is a direct attempt to sow distrust (Confidence: MEDIUM). Alex Parker Returns' report on UOC priest attacking military commissars will be heavily exploited to portray internal Ukrainian strife and undermine state authority (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Slovak PM Fico stated Slovakia rejects the deployment of Western troops in Ukraine, which RF IO will leverage (Confidence: HIGH). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on internal IO framing the war's impact on Russians (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares video alleging Charlie Kirk's murder was AI-generated, showing intent to discredit Western media (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Netherlands found no evidence of Moscow's involvement in Polish drone incident, a denial which will be leveraged by RF IO (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна reports Estonian PM Kallas's prediction that the war will last at least two more years, which RF IO may leverage to suggest the war is stalemated or to reinforce their long-term resolve (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС quotes Maria Zakharova stating Western intimidation failing, reinforcing aggressive IO and narratives of resilience (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС and Alex Parker Returns' reporting on the Charlie Kirk murder weapon and alleged ideological links demonstrates RF's intent to exploit US internal political divisions for IO (Confidence: HIGH). Рыбарь's "sabotage" in Germany report will be used to portray Western instability (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns' photo message "Куда хохла не целуй - везде жопа. И так у них всегда." is a dehumanizing IO message that will continue to be pushed (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports on Japan's centers closure due to "violations," showing intent to use allegations to justify actions against foreign cultural institutions and sow distrust (Confidence: HIGH). Операция Z (citing Военкоры Русской Весны) reports the EU's supreme representative stated the war in Ukraine will continue for at least two more years, which RF IO will leverage to portray a protracted conflict (Confidence: HIGH). Военкор Котенок reports the "Krivoy Rog schlemiel-narcofuehrer" (Zelenskyy) is cynically dragonizing Poles, which RF IO will use to create divisions (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports FBI is asking for public assistance to identify a figure related to the Charlie Kirk murder, which RF IO will continue to use to amplify internal US divisions (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares a photo message implying a "churka" was the shooter, further fueling racial and political division in the US narrative (Confidence: HIGH). Alex Parker Returns shares a message expressing outrage at Netanyahu's actions, consistent with RF intent to leverage international events for highly charged anti-Western IO (Confidence: HIGH). ASTRA reports Zelenskyy stated the drone incursions were not accidental, which indicates RF's intent to respond with counter-IO (Confidence: HIGH). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's report on Ukraine recognizing same-sex marriage is a clear RF IO attempt to sow social conservative discord and criticize Ukraine's alignment with Western values (Confidence: HIGH). Рыбарь's photo message with the caption "Well, everyone ran, and so did we" reinforces RF intent to generate demoralizing IO against UAF (Confidence: HIGH). ТАСС reports Leonid Slutsky stated the drone situation in Poland increasingly resembles the MH-17 incident or the Skripal case, with the West escalating the mythical "Russian threat." This indicates a COA of generating conspiracy theories and deflecting blame (Confidence: HIGH). РБК-Україна shares a photo message stating that Trump needs to see that Putin is mocking him, citing Sikorski. This indicates a COA of exploiting perceived RF disrespect for Western leaders to sow discord (Confidence: HIGH). **ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a photo message stating that Putin is delighted with the results of the "air defense check" by a swarm of drones in Poland, and The Financial Times writes that this attack pushes him to go further next time. This reinforces the COA of escalating hybrid warfare