Situation Report

SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - 111400Z SEP 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (Confidence: HIGH)

RF forces maintain multi-axis pressure, with the Pokrovsk axis remaining the primary operational focus. Previous reports of RF advances near Chynyshyn, urban combat in Muravka, and within Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) itself are ongoing. Confirmed (Rybar, Операция Z, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Воин DV, TASS, Андрей Марочко): RF forces of "Vostok" Grouping have "liberated" Sosnovka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This is a significant RF advance and consolidation of gains on a previously contested or lightly held axis. TASS further reports this "liberation" will allow RF to enhance encirclement of a UAF grouping in Velykomykhailivka, indicating a tactical objective for this new front. Russian military blogger Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports ongoing combat south of Stepnohirsk, with RF aviation actively targeting UAF positions. Confirmed (Colonelcassad): RF claims to be assaulting Zarechnoye (Lyman direction), with map-based analysis of Russian advances from September 4-11, 2025. This indicates continued RF pressure and claimed territorial gains on the Lyman axis.

Intense combat continues near Krasny Liman, DPR, with the RF 103rd Regiment advancing towards Konstantinovka. TASS reports RF forces are approximately 7 km from Krasny Liman. New RF ground activity on the Siverske direction includes RF forces taking control of approximately 50% of Pereyizne, south of Siversk, DPR, and advances in the Kremensky forests, LPR, taking control of approximately 3 km of the administrative border. RF UAVs continue to establish "fire control" over UAF logistical routes near Krasny Liman and Izium-Barvinkove. RF also claims control of 1.5 km of a supply route in Kupyansk. Zvиздец Мангусту indicates minimal RF progression towards Oleksandrivka (Kramatorsk Raion) on the Lyman direction. TASS reports RF forces have advanced in Kirovsk (Zarichne), DPR, reaching its southwestern outskirts. "Z комитет + карта СВО" indicates RF activity on Katerynivka in Luhansk Oblast. "Два майора" (citing Rybar) reports on the "liberation" of Zelenyi Hai and fighting for Torske, with map-based analysis of Russian advances in August-September 2025 towards Zarechnoye, Torske, and Novokareevka, indicating sustained RF offensive operations on the Lyman direction with new claimed territorial gains.

GSU reports indicate a significant concentration of RF forces and 130 combat engagements over the past 24 hours on the Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka, and Shakhtarske directions, with UAF repelling numerous attacks. RF is attempting to advance near Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast. TASS reports RF forces repelled a UAF counterattack on the left bank of the Vovcha River in Vovchansk and occupied four technical buildings. RF Special Forces (14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, "Sida" detachment of AHMAT, "Anvar" detachment) are actively supporting ground assaults on the South Donetsk direction and conducting precision strikes against UAF artillery on the Sumy direction, with "Anvar" confirmed operating in buffer zones along the Kharkiv and Chernihiv borders. RF is reportedly bringing up reserves to Vovchansk. Воин DV reports that units of the RF 5th Army Group "Vostok" are destroying UAF personnel and vehicles in the South Donetsk direction, with accompanying video showing successful drone strikes on a military vehicle and subsequent defensive measures against a drone (flares). TASS, citing Saldo, claims the Kherson-Mykolaiv highway is under RF fire control. GSU reports for South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction show clashes near Vovchansk, Ambarne, and Odradne. On Kupyansk direction, clashes near Myrne, Kupyansk, and Borivska Andriyivka. On Lyman direction, clashes near Hrekivka, Serednye, Kolodyazi, Stavka, Torske, and Shandryholove. On Siversk direction, clashes near Vyyimka and Dronivka. On Kramatorsk direction, clashes near Bila Hora, Mayske and towards Stupochky and Predtechyne. On Toretsk direction, clashes near Scherbynivka, Oleksandro-Kalynove, Kleban-Byk, Pleschiyivka, Rusyn Yar, Poltavka and towards Berestky, Sofiyivka. On Pokrovsk direction, clashes near Volodymyrivka, Vilne, Zolotyy Kolodyaz, Nove Shakhove, Kotlyne, Nykanorivka, Rodynske, Promin, Lysivka, Novoekonomichne, Myrolubivka, Zvirove, Udachne, Dachne, Novoukrayinka. On Novopavlivka direction, clashes near Filiya, Oleksandrohrad, Maliyivka, Komyshuvakha, Olhivske, Tolstoy, Piddubne, Novoivanivka and towards Ivanivka. On Orikhiv direction, clashes near Plavni and Stepnohirsk. On Huliaipole direction, clashes near Bilohirya. On Kherson direction, clashes near Antonivka and Sadove. On Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, UAF repelled 7 Russian army assaults.

Deep strikes persist on Ukrainian energy, industrial, and civilian infrastructure across 15 oblasts. Confirmed damage to the Sumy Oblast Administration (OVA) building, the Ukrainian Government Headquarters in Kyiv, the Sokil ice arena in Kyiv, the Cabinet of Ministers building in Kyiv, and the Trypilska TPP. The death toll from the aviation bomb strike on Yarova, Donetsk Oblast, has risen to 25. Civilian casualties and damage from combined missile and drone attacks are also confirmed in Vinnytsia (31 injured), Khmelnytskyi (sewing factory destroyed, 3 injured), Zhytomyr (1 killed, 5 injured), and Kramatorsk (central square, residential areas, market hit by drones). An energy object in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast has been hit by drones. Zaporizhzhia suffered a drone attack on a residential building, injuring two civilians, with four additional wounded reported from attacks on Prymorske and Zaporizhzhia. The 68-year-old man severely injured in a drone strike on Prymorske yesterday has died in hospital. Mykolaiv has experienced drone threats and explosions. Berdychiv (Zhytomyr Oblast) was hit by missile strikes. Enemy strike on an educational institution in the Zarichny district of Sumy is confirmed. A Russian drone hit the Holy Resurrection Cathedral in the center of Sumy. A "Shahed" drone hit one of Chernihiv's enterprises, causing a fire. UAF General Staff reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Krasnyy Khutir of Chernihiv region, Zaliznychne, Orikhiv of Zaporizhzhia region. Shelling reported in Novodonetske, causing a building to be engulfed in flames.

Reports indicate at least eight explosions in occupied Donetsk, with TASS claiming UAF missile attacks repelled. Mash on Donbas reports power outages in Kyivskyi district of Donetsk and damaged windows in a traumatology hospital and nearby residential buildings, with a new video claiming a multi-apartment building in Donetsk was hit, "presumably by NATO MLRS".

UAV activity remains extremely high. UAF Air Force reports 62 of 66 enemy UAV targets were shot down/suppressed overnight, indicating a slightly lower volume but still significant drone attack compared to the previous period. Confirmed (Повітряні Сили ЗС України, Colonelcassad): Groups of enemy UAVs are entering southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast from Temporarily Occupied Territories (TOT), course - north/northwest, and additional KABs are launched on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. RF claims destruction of 225 Ukrainian UAVs, one Neptune guided missile, and three HIMARS MLRS rockets over the past day. RF reconnaissance UAVs are active in the Black Sea towards Odesa and in Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts. RF drones are confirmed active across central, western, and northern Ukraine. UAF Air Force reports guided aerial bombs launched on Donetsk Oblast and Sumy Oblast. Старше Эдды shares video of what is identified as a RF kamikaze drone "Upyr" attempting to evade a UAF interceptor drone near Prykolotne, Kharkiv Oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares compilation video of "waiting drones" (drones-zhdunov) patiently waiting for and then attacking RF vehicles and personnel. Confirmed (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition): Video shows a RF kamikaze drone "Upyr" engaging a UAF interceptor drone near Prykolotne, Kharkiv Oblast. This reinforces the ongoing aerial drone combat.

CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT: At least 15 RF drones have been found in Poland, with one reportedly falling near a Territorial Defense military base. This follows NATO invoking Article 4 due to significant incursions up to 250 km deep into Polish airspace. Polish F-16s scrambled, and Netherlands F-35s reportedly shot down Russian "Gerbera" UAVs over Poland. Rzeszów, Lublin, and Warsaw airports were temporarily closed. Poland is redeploying units to the Belarusian border and has imposed flight restrictions along its borders with Belarus and Ukraine until December 9. Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania have closed their airspaces along the border with Belarus and Russia indefinitely, and Poland has notified Belarus of the closure of all remaining border crossings with Belarus from 12 SEP 25, including road and rail points. Confirmed (ТАСС, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Операція Z, Оперативний ЗСУ): Netherlands MFA summoned the Russian ambassador regarding the drone incident over Poland. Multiple sources confirm drones also entered Lithuanian airspace, with some believed to be heading towards the NATO base in Rzeszów. Confirmed (РБК-Україна): Ukraine has officially reacted to the "cynical statement" by the Slovakian Foreign Minister regarding drones in Poland. This indicates continued diplomatic fallout from the incident.

Ukrainian HUR (Main Intelligence Directorate) units successfully struck and disabled an RF Black Sea Fleet vessel (Project MPSV07) near Novorossiysk. Sources state that the vessel, identified as a multi-purpose rescue/salvage ship, is now out of action and requires costly repairs. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Russian channels are circulating video of a missile attack on artillery depots of RF's "Dnipro" Grouping of Forces located in Sonyachna Dolyna near Sudak in occupied Crimea.

Confirmed (Олександр Вілкул): Photos depicting subway station. No military significance. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Офіс Генерального прокурора): Court selected a pre-trial restraint for NABU official suspected of inaccurate property declaration. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO, РБК-Україна, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Colonelcassad, Военкор Котенок): UAF Su-27 aircraft crashed during a combat mission in the Zaporizhzhia direction, killing pilot Major Oleksandr Borovyk of the 39th Tactical Aviation Brigade. RF sources claim their Air-Space Forces "downed" the Su-27. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Народная милиция ДНР): Video message encouraging UAF soldiers to surrender via Telegram bot @FREE_SOLDIER2022. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Fighterbomber): Photo message with caption "The last anti-aircraft missiles of the Khokhols are being spent on friendly fire." (Confidence: MEDIUM) Confirmed (Операция Z): Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov states that the US understands the need to eliminate the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis, not arm Kyiv. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦): Video of a woman discussing her son's death in the war, framing it as a "feat" and "transition." (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Басурин о главном): Photo message with caption "The USA wants to return the Jackson-Vanik amendment." (Confidence: MEDIUM) Confirmed (ТАСС, РБК-Україна): Russian citizens receiving SMS about crypto wallets; FBI found weapon used in Charlie Kirk shooting. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Kotsnews): "Baltic states ask the US not to abandon them." (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Kotsnews): Video of RF kamikaze drone "Upyr" engaging a UAF interceptor drone near Prykolotne, Kharkiv Oblast. RF claims interceptor failed. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Новости Москвы): Moscow metro stations to be open until 02:00 on Sept 13-14. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺): Map image showing "Siverske direction." No new operational details discernible from the image itself. (Confidence: MEDIUM) Confirmed (ТАСС): Mi-8 helicopter made a hard landing in Kaliningrad due to bad weather; no casualties. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (ТАСС): Tourist traffic to Krasnodar region may grow by 25%, to Crimea by 50% due to Krasnodar airport opening. S7 Airlines plans flights to Krasnodar. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Два майора): Photo message: "In Germany, sabotage is reported again." (Confidence: MEDIUM) Confirmed (ТАСС): Polish FM Radoslaw Sikorski emotionally urged Poles not to visit Russia and Belarus. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС): Video of a cemetery in Krasnoyarsk Krai, РФ, showing neglected graves of three brothers killed in the war, now trampled by cattle. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Colonelcassad): Photo of a mural in Kazan station. Not militarily significant. (Confidence: LOW) Confirmed (Оперативний ЗСУ): Photo message, caption "Madhouse, situation". No military significance. (Confidence: LOW) Confirmed (Операция Z): Bloomberg reports NATO is strengthening its eastern flank after drone incident in Poland. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition): Stubb stated in Kyiv that "Russia is suffering defeat in all directions and strategic moments on the battlefield." RF milblogger dismisses this as unrealistic. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (AV БогомаZ): Photos of opening a thousandth sports ground in Russia (Bylinskaya land). No direct military significance. (Confidence: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (Confidence: HIGH)

Conditions remained generally clear and favorable for air operations, including missile and UAV strikes across most of Ukraine. Localized heavy rainfall caused significant flooding in Kyiv. Expected thunderstorms in Kharkiv could temporarily impact local air operations. Storm weather is reported in Donetsk. RF tactical aviation is actively launching KABs on Sumy, Donetsk, and northern Kharkiv Oblasts. A ballistic missile threat from the northeast has been reported and subsequently lifted for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reconnaissance UAVs are active over the Black Sea towards Odesa and in Sumy/Kharkiv Oblasts. RF drones are confirmed active across central, western, and northern Ukraine. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is under missile threat, with drone attacks confirmed on Synelnykove. A nationwide air raid alert was active due to the launch of an RF MiG-31K, a carrier of the "Kinzhal" aeroballistic missile, which was subsequently lifted. Mash на Донбассе reports fields and dry grass caught fire on the outskirts of Yenakiieve, potentially impacting visibility or obscuring movements, though no direct military significance is immediately apparent. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports over 201 hectares of Kharkiv Oblast territory demined in a week, indicating ongoing post-combat environmental clearance efforts. Confirmed (ASTRA, ТАСС, Mash на Донбассе): Krasnodar airport has reopened for civilian flights for the first time since the start of the war. "Aeroflot" expects to resume international flights from Krasnodar by the end of September. While civilian, this indicates an improving logistical environment in southern RF. Confirmed (ТАСС): Mi-8 helicopter made a hard landing in Kaliningrad due to bad weather; no casualties. This highlights weather impact on aviation even in rear areas. (Confidence: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (Confidence: HIGH)

• RF:
  • Ground Forces: RF continues its multi-axis ground offensive, notably on the Pokrovsk axis (Chynyshyn, Muravka, Krasnoarmeysk), Novopavlivka, Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, South Slobozhansky (Vovchansk), and Kupyansk directions. Confirmed (Рыбарь, TASS, Андрей Марочко): "Vostok" Grouping has liberated Sosnovka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a tactical objective to encircle UAF in Velykomykhailivka. Specific units involved include marine infantry, "Somali" battalion elements, and the RF 103rd Regiment. "Otvazhnye" units are heavily engaged near Pokrovsk. TASS reports RF forces have taken control of approximately 50% of Pereyizne, south of Siversk, DPR. RF has introduced 'Kur'er' robotic complexes and "Veterok" fiber-optic drones. "Anvar" special forces are active near the Sumy/Chernihiv border, clearing buffer zones. WarGonzo shares video focusing on a "Boby" battalion, showing individuals in a heavily damaged urban environment discussing operational concepts related to assault groups and taking objects, suggesting continued tactical focus on urban combat. TASS reports Rosgvardia has been armed with tank and anti-tank guns, self-propelled artillery, and MLRS, and has executed over 60,000 fire and tactical missions in the special operation. Народная милиция ДНР (238 Brigade) claims to have destroyed a UAF UAV control post in Berestok. Confirmed (MoD Russia): Video shows crews of a "Terminator" tank support fighting vehicle (Tsentr Group of Forces) training in a rear area, confirming continued training and readiness of specialized armored units. Confirmed (Народная милиция ДНР): Video message encouraging UAF soldiers to surrender via Telegram bot @FREE_SOLDIER2022. This indicates continued RF PSYOP efforts targeting UAF personnel. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Air/Missile Forces: RF executed a massed air attack, with UAF Air Force reporting a 94% interception rate (62 of 66 UAVs). Confirmed (Повітряні Силі ЗС України, Colonelcassad): Groups of enemy UAVs are entering southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast from TOT, course - north/northwest. Launches of KABs on Sumy and northern Kharkiv Oblasts (Повітряні Силі ЗС України). Launches of KABs on Donetsk Oblast (Повітряні Силі ЗС України). TASS reports 5 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over Belgorod Oblast. New military bases near Minsk, Belarus, could host Russian "Oreshnik" missiles. RF Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs on eastern Kharkiv Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, and Sumy Oblast. Confirmed (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Kotsnews): Video shows a RF kamikaze drone "Upyr" engaging a UAF interceptor drone near Prykolotne, Kharkiv Oblast, indicating active drone-on-drone combat and RF claims of interceptor failure. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Fighterbomber): Photo message with caption "The last anti-aircraft missiles of the Khokhols are being spent on friendly fire." This is an RF IO message attempting to discredit UAF air defense. (Confidence: MEDIUM) Confirmed (Военкор Котенок): RF claims their Air-Space Forces "downed" a UAF Su-27 in the Zaporizhzhia direction. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Naval Forces: USV attack on Novorossiysk confirmed. RF is developing new USV "Ushkuynik." CRITICAL: Ukrainian HUR reports confirm a successful strike on an RF Black Sea Fleet vessel (Project MPSV07) near Novorossiysk, severely damaging it.
  • Information Warfare (IO): RF is actively pushing narratives to discredit Ukraine, sow discord among allies. Операция Z attributes claims to "Военкоры Русской Весны" about Hungarian FM Szijjártó stating that Ukraine will not achieve EU membership without restoring rights for Zakarpattia Hungarians. Операция Z also pushes the narrative that Zelenskyy is "making excuses," claiming drones in Poland are "distracting NATO from Ukraine." RF MFA statement denied deliberate drone incursions into Poland, while milbloggers promote narratives questioning their origin. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition: Lavrov stated that the US understands the need to eliminate the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis, rather than continuing to arm Kyiv and throw more Ukrainian citizens into the "furnace" of hostilities. Alex Parker Returns: Russian military bloggers are asserting that the lifting of sanctions on Belavia will resolve the issue of spare parts shortages for Boeing aircraft, implying a direct benefit for Russia. TASS is leveraging Poland's confirmed preparation of a "military-defensive response" to the drone incident, aimed at strengthening NATO's eastern flank (Bloomberg), to frame NATO as escalatory. RF continues to widely disseminate the false claim that Ukraine will mobilize 15-year-olds. RF continues to use POW testimonies and disillusioned mercenary accounts for psychological warfare. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники: A convicted soldier broke his wife's skull with a hammer and received a suspended sentence. Басурин о главном shares a video of a child speaking, indicating continued use of children in propaganda. TASS reports writer Dmitry Bykov added to list of terrorists and extremists, demonstrating continued internal suppression of dissent. TASS reports Maria Zakharova called Alla Pugacheva's interview a "bazaar of hypocrisy," further showing internal political/cultural IO. Рыбарь shares a graphic titled "Ballast for Germany," likely anti-German IO. Воин DV promotes the re-designation of a Far Eastern Military Academy as "Guards," indicating internal morale boosting. Confirmed (ТАСС): Reports on arrests in Georgia for corruption (former Defense Minister Burchuladze) and for promising bribes (former Saakashvili party head Khabeishvili), likely to be used by RF IO to portray instability in Georgia, an aspiring EU/NATO member. Confirmed (Военкор Котенок): Video circulated of Ksenia Sobchak interviewing Arestovych in London, possibly used for IO to discredit Ukrainian figures or highlight their "luxury" abroad during wartime. Confirmed (TASS): Fico statement on not supporting sanctions against Russia unless the EC presents "real proposals" on climate/industry targets, indicating RF IO leveraging existing EU disunity. Confirmed (AV БогомаZ): Reports on a tennis tournament closing ceremony in Bryansk, dedicated to the "liberation of Bryansk from Nazi invaders," indicating continued internal RF IO focusing on patriotic themes and historical revisionism. Confirmed (Операция Z): Lavrov states the US understands the need to eliminate the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis, not arm Kyiv, a key RF IO narrative. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Kotsnews): "Baltic states ask the US not to abandon them," likely an RF IO attempt to sow discord and fear within NATO. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition): RF milblogger dismisses Finnish President Stubb's statements on Russian defeat as unrealistic, indicating a coordinated IO effort to downplay UAF successes and maintain the narrative of RF strength. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Операция Z): Bloomberg report on NATO strengthening its eastern flank is used by RF IO to frame NATO as escalatory. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Friendly Forces (UAF):
  • Ground Forces: UAF maintains a strong defensive posture, repelling 130 RF attacks across all major axes. UAF drone operators from "Spartan" brigade are liquidating small RF infantry groups on the Pokrovsk direction. UAF thwarted a Russian breakthrough attempt in Sumy Oblast with drones and remote mining. Ukrainian resistance agents ("ATESH") have conducted a successful sabotage operation against an RF air defense plant in Tula. STERNENKO: Video shows drone attacks targeting Russian military equipment on the Kostiantynivka direction, indicating a new mechanized offensive by RF and active UAF counter-drone operations, with a call for donations to support drone procurement. Оперативний ЗСУ: Video highlights the "Lyubart" brigade (20th Brigade, 1st Azov Corps of the National Guard of Ukraine), featuring soldiers in tactical gear, a stylized skull logo, and a DJI Mavic 3 Pro drone, indicating an active, elite unit with modern equipment. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shows compilation of "waiting drones" actively targeting RF elements. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) reports a meeting with families of "Azov" Regiment fighters, indicating continued support for POW families.
  • Air Defense: UAF Air Force reports a 94% interception rate for the latest massed attack (62 of 66 UAVs). PVO of the 3rd Assault Brigade shot down 609 UAVs in August. New drone group over Chernihiv is being tracked. Guided aerial bombs inbound to eastern Kharkiv Oblast. Ukraine and Britain will jointly produce "Project Octopus" interceptor drones in thousands per month. Басурин о главном claims Russian holding Rosele (Rostec) has begun supplying modernized anti-drone systems, indicating RF efforts to counter UAF drone superiority. Confirmed (Оперативний ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Николаевский Ванёк): Major Oleksandr Borovyk, a pilot of the 39th Tactical Aviation Brigade, was killed on September 11, 2025, around 13:30, in the Zaporizhzhia direction while performing a combat mission on a Su-27 aircraft. This confirms a loss of a UAF pilot and a critical aircraft.
  • Naval Forces: CRITICAL: GUR special forces successfully struck an RF Black Sea Fleet vessel (Project MPSV07) near Novorossiysk, severely damaging it and rendering it inoperable.
  • Diplomatic/International Engagement: Zelenskiy has engaged in high-level diplomatic calls with Polish PM Tusk, UK PM Starmer, Italian PM Meloni, and NATO Secretary-General Rutte following the Polish drone incursions. Sweden is urgently sending additional aircraft and air defense assets to Poland. Netherlands Minister of Defense Brekelmans announced deployment of a layered air defense system to Poland by year-end. Poland is urgently requesting more air defense from NATO, specifically Patriot systems. The US Congress has approved nearly $900 billion in defense spending for 2026, with $400 million allocated to Ukraine's military aid. РБК-Україна: Sweden has provided its 20th package of military aid to Ukraine. РБК-Україна: Hungarian Foreign Minister accused Kyiv of worsening relations between the two countries, indicating diplomatic friction. РБК-Україна: Lukashenko released 52 more political prisoners. Confirmed (Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO): Sweden has announced a 20th military aid package of $836 million to Ukraine, and plans to allocate $4.276 billion annually for 2026-2027. ТАСС reports Britain and France offered to send Eurofighter and Rafale fighters to Poland in connection with the drone incident. Confirmed (РБК-Україна): Ukraine has reacted to the "cynical statement" by the Slovakian Foreign Minister regarding drones in Poland, indicating ongoing diplomatic efforts to counter RF narratives and maintain international unity. Confirmed (Colonelcassad): US to lift some sanctions on Belarus, including "Belavia," indicating a shift in US diplomatic engagement with Belarus. Confirmed (ТАСС): Polish FM Radoslaw Sikorski emotionally urged Poles not to visit Russia and Belarus. (Confidence: HIGH)**
  • IO: UAF is actively reporting on RF attacks, BDA, and UAF successes, countering RF narratives. Zelenskiy's official channel explicitly stated the drone movement into Poland was deliberate. Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦: Photos of President Zelenskyy with Finnish President Alexander Stubb at a press conference, indicating strong diplomatic ties and international support. Confirmed (Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"): Video shows civilians and military personnel displaying Ukrainian flags and a "We Stand With Ukraine" banner, suggesting a morale-boosting event or show of solidarity. Confirmed (Оперативний ЗСУ): Report on an arrest in Shargorod for the murder of two children, indicating transparency and focus on internal security/justice during wartime. Confirmed (Офіс Генерального прокурора): Court selected a pre-trial restraint for NABU official suspected of inaccurate property declaration. This demonstrates continued efforts against corruption. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦): Video of a woman discussing her son's death in the war, framing it as a "feat" and "transition." This could be a UAF IO opportunity to highlight the human cost of the war and the resilience of Ukrainian people. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС): Video of neglected graves of fallen Russian soldiers in Krasnoyarsk Krai, Russia. This is a significant UAF IO opportunity to expose RF's disregard for its soldiers and their families, impacting RF morale. (Confidence: HIGH)

1.4. Intelligence Gaps (Confidence: HIGH)

• CRITICAL: What is the specific BDA of the alleged "liberation" of Sosnovka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by the RF "Vostok" Grouping/Russian Army? What UAF units were defending it, and what is the current UAF posture in Velykomykhailivka, which RF claims to be encircling?
• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA and verified location of the alleged "destruction of a UAF UAV control post" by the RF 238th Brigade in Berestok (Народная милиция ДНР)? What is the impact on UAF drone operations in the area?
• CRITICAL: What RF capabilities were involved in the loss of UAF Major Oleksandr Borovyk and his Su-27 aircraft in the Zaporizhzhia direction? What is the operational impact on UAF air superiority in the region?
• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA and specific details of the alleged RF strikes on the Lviv Armored Plant, Lviv Aviation Plant, and other DIB facilities in western Ukraine?
• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA and specific details of the alleged defection of a Russian soldier to the UAF after killing two officers and destroying his position, as reported by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС? What unit was he from, and what actionable intelligence has he provided?
• CRITICAL: What is the specific impact and BDA of the new RF mechanized offensive on the Kostiantynivka direction, as reported by STERNENKO? What RF units are involved, and what UAF forces are counter-attacking?
• CRITICAL: What are the specific capabilities and operational readiness of the 20th Brigade "Lyubart" (1st Azov Corps of the National Guard of Ukraine), as highlighted by Оперативний ЗСУ, particularly regarding their drone capabilities and combat experience?
• CRITICAL: What are the verified details of the alleged detention of Ukrainian citizens in Georgia for attempting to smuggle 2.4 kg of hexogen, as reported by Военкор Котенок? Is there any evidence linking this to UAF operations?
• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA and specific details of the RF air defense upgrade, with Rosgvardia receiving tank and anti-tank guns, self-propelled artillery, and MLRS, as reported by TASS? What is the operational impact on the effectiveness of RF internal security forces on the front lines?
• CRITICAL: What are the specific objectives and implications of the US lifting sanctions on "Belavia" and potential renewed diplomatic ties with Belarus (Colonelcassad)? How does this impact Belarusian alignment with RF and the security situation on Ukraine's northern border?
• HIGH: What is the specific BDA and the full impact of the RF assault groups using the "Potok" ("Kursk pipe") method for infiltration on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, as shown in "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" video? What are the defensive countermeasures required for such subterranean/culvert-based movements?
• HIGH: What is the specific BDA and the full impact of the RF drone-on-drone combat near Prykolotne, Kharkiv Oblast, as reported by Старше Эдды, Kotsnews, and Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition? What are the capabilities of the UAF interceptor drone, and how effective is it against RF kamikaze drones like "Upyr"?
• HIGH: What are NATO's specific military Rules of Engagement (ROE) and force posture changes following the Article 4 consultation regarding future RF incursions? What are RF's strategic red lines for a direct NATO military response?
• HIGH: What is the strength, composition, and immediate objective of RF second-echelon forces positioned to exploit the Pokrovsk breakthrough?
• HIGH: What is the exact damage assessment and long-term operational impact of the HUR strike on the RF Black Sea Fleet Project MPSV07 vessel near Novorossiysk? How long will repairs take, and how does this affect RF maritime operations in the Black Sea?
• HIGH: What is the full BDA and specific targets of the new enemy UAV groups entering southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast from TOT, heading north/northwest, as reported by UAF Air Force?
• HIGH: What are the specific implications of the Hungarian Foreign Minister's accusations against Kyiv regarding worsening relations between the two countries (РБК-Україна, Операция Z)? How does this impact Ukraine's diplomatic standing and international support?
• HIGH: What is the specific content and strategic implication of the Slovakian Foreign Minister's "cynical statement" on drones in Poland, and Ukraine's reaction to it (РБК-Україна)? How does this impact EU unity and support for Ukraine?
• MEDIUM: What is the full BDA and impact of the drone fragments found in 15 locations in Poland, particularly their type, origin, and intended targets?
• MEDIUM: What is the operational and morale impact of the newly reported military misconduct (convicted soldier breaking wife's skull) within RF units? Is this indicative of a systemic breakdown in discipline that can be exploited?
• MEDIUM: What is the specific content and purpose of Zelenskyy's statement (Операция Z) that drones in Poland "distract NATO from Ukraine," and how is it being perceived by international audiences and Ukrainian forces?
• MEDIUM: What are the "real reasons" for Russian drones "falling" in Poland, as claimed by "Два майора"? What specific disinformation narratives is RF preparing to disseminate to explain the incursions?
• MEDIUM: What is the specific impact and operational readiness of the newly supplied "modernized anti-drone systems" from Russian holding Rosele (Rostec), as claimed by Басурин о главном?
• MEDIUM: What are the specific implications of the reopening of Krasnodar airport (ASTRA, TASS, Mash на Донбассе) for civilian flights? Could this be used for covert military logistics or for testing civil infrastructure resilience during conflict?
• MEDIUM: What is the precise nature of the "sabotage" reported in Germany by Два майора? Is there any evidence linking it to the conflict?
• LOW: What are the implications of the arrests of former Georgian officials (ТАСС) on corruption charges, for Georgian stability and its potential alignment with Western structures or RF influence?
• LOW: What is the intelligence value of the circulated video of Ksenia Sobchak interviewing Arestovych in London (Военкор Котенок)? Is there any actionable intelligence beyond IO implications?

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (Confidence: HIGH)

• Capabilities:
  • Sustained Ground Offensive with Massed Forces & Expanded Scope: RF demonstrates the capability for sustained, multi-axis ground offensives, achieving localized breakthroughs (Pokrovsk, Siversk, Lyman), urban combat, and deploying new robotic systems ('Kur'er'). Confirmed (Рыбарь, TASS, Андрей Марочко): Confirmed capability for new advances and "liberation" in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Sosnovka), a significant expansion of operational scope, with objectives to encircle UAF forces. TASS also reports Rosgvardia has been armed with tank/anti-tank guns, SPGs, and MLRS, and has executed over 60,000 fire missions, indicating a significant combat role for internal security forces on the front. This enhances RF's ground combat capability and firepower. WarGonzo video on "Boby" battalion confirms active RF ground units operating in damaged urban environments, capable of planning and executing assault operations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF aviation actively targeting UAF positions in Stepnohirsk, indicating close air support capability for ground operations. Народная милиция ДНР (238 Brigade) claims to have destroyed a UAF UAV control post in Berestok, demonstrating RF counter-UAV and targeted strike capabilities. Confirmed (MoD Russia): "Terminator" tank support fighting vehicles confirm continued readiness of specialized armored units for combined arms operations. Confirmed (Военкор Котенок): RF Air-Space Forces have the capability to "down" UAF Su-27 aircraft in the Zaporizhzhia direction. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Overwhelming Long-Range Strike & Air Presence (Escalated Volume): RF maintains overwhelming long-range strike capability (Iskander-K, Shaheds, KABs, cruise missiles), capable of massed, multi-platform, and precision strikes against critical DIB, energy, and national C2 infrastructure. The reported massed strike of 415 UAVs and 43 missiles in the previous period indicates a significantly escalated capability to overwhelm UAF air defenses. Confirmed (Повітряні Силі ЗС України, Colonelcassad): Groups of enemy UAVs are entering southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast from TOT, course - north/northwest. Launches of KABs on Sumy, Northern Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts confirm intent to continue air attacks on infrastructure and civilian areas. Confirmed (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Kotsnews): Video of "Upyr" drone engaging UAF interceptor confirms continued adaptive drone usage and engagement capabilities, and RF claims of interceptor failure. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Adaptive FPV Drone Operations: RF is increasingly employing FPV drones for specialized tactical roles. STERNENKO: Reports new RF mechanized offensive on Kostiantynivka direction, implying continued RF ground offensive capabilities supported by drones.
  • Persistent IO and Cyber Operations (Highly Adaptive): RF maintains a robust capability for multi-layered information warfare, including rapid adaptation to new narratives, highly inflammatory accusations, and efforts to sow discord. Confirmed (Операция Z, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, TASS, РБК-Україна): Immediate and coordinated IO pushing narratives that Zelenskyy is "making excuses" for Polish drones, Lavrov's statement blaming the US for arming Ukraine, Hungarian FM's accusations against Kyiv, and internal suppression of dissent demonstrates highly adaptive and coordinated IO. Confirmed (ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, AV БогомаZ): Reports on Georgian arrests, Arestovych interview, Fico statement, and Bryansk tennis tournament all indicate highly adaptive and opportunistic IO to sow discord, distract, or reinforce internal narratives. Confirmed (Народная милиция ДНР): Active PSYOP encouraging UAF surrenders. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Fighterbomber): RF is capable of generating IO to discredit UAF air defense operations. (Confidence: MEDIUM) Confirmed (Kotsnews): RF is capable of generating IO to sow fear and discord within NATO. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition): RF milbloggers are capable of immediately dismissing statements by Western leaders (e.g., Finnish President Stubb) to maintain their internal narrative of success. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Naval Attack/Defense Capabilities: While the HUR strike demonstrates UAF's ability to penetrate RF naval defenses, the fact that only four such MPSV07 vessels exist in the RF fleet underscores their operational importance and thus RF's capability (and vulnerability) in maintaining its Black Sea logistics and salvage operations.
  • Counter-UAV Systems: Басурин о главном claims Russian holding Rosele (Rostec) has begun supplying modernized anti-drone systems, indicating an evolving RF capability to counter UAF drone threats.
• Intentions:
  • Achieve Decisive Breakthrough on Pokrovsk Axis and Expand Dnipropetrovsk Offensive (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF's primary intent is to exploit current breakthroughs to gain significant operational depth on the Pokrovsk axis, threatening Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk city. CRITICALLY, RF intends to immediately capitalize on the claimed "liberation" of Sosnovka to establish a new operational salient and attempt to encircle UAF forces in Velykomykhailivka, as stated by TASS. RF also intends to continue pressure on other axes and degrade UAF ground assets. Confirmed (Colonelcassad): Assault on Zarechnoye confirms intent to continue offensive operations and territorial gains on the Lyman direction.
  • Degrade Ukrainian Winter Resilience & Overwhelm Air Defenses (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF intends to continue systematic mass strikes against Ukrainian DIB, energy, industrial, and logistical infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's ability to sustain operations through winter and to saturate/overwhelm UAF air defenses. The previous massed air strike directly supports this. Confirmed (Повітряні Силі ЗС України): New drone groups entering Zaporizhzhia and KAB launches on Sumy, Northern Kharkiv, and Donetsk confirm intent to continue air attacks on infrastructure and civilian areas. Confirmed (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Kotsnews): Continued tactical drone-on-drone combat and anti-drone efforts will be a feature. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Undermine Western Support and Ukrainian Morale (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF will continue aggressive information operations to discredit UAF, sow distrust, and amplify internal challenges. Confirmed (Операция Z, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition): Immediate and coordinated IO surrounding the Polish drone incursions, Lavrov's statements, and Hungarian FM's accusations underscores intent to influence Western public opinion and diplomatic efforts. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники: Report on soldier's criminal act creates an IO vulnerability for RF, but also highlights internal issues RF seeks to manage. Confirmed (РБК-Україна): RF will leverage any internal EU disunity (e.g., Slovakian FM's comments on drones) to further undermine support for Ukraine. Confirmed (Народная милиция ДНР): RF intends to undermine UAF morale and encourage desertion. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Sustained Probing of NATO Air Defenses with Hybrid Warfare Elements (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF intends to continue launching UAVs into or towards NATO member states' airspace to test response thresholds and sow discord. The summoning of the Russian ambassador by Netherlands MFA indicates RF actions are having direct diplomatic consequences, which RF will leverage for IO. The confirmation of drones in Lithuania suggests a broadening of these probing actions.
  • Maintain Internal Stability and Project Strength (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF will continue internal propaganda to maintain domestic stability. TASS: Rosgvardia's expanded role and reported combat missions will be used to project strength and internal security. Воин DV promoting Far Eastern Military Academy status, TASS listing Bykov as terrorist/extremist, and Zakharova's comments on Pugacheva's interview are all aimed at internal control and narrative. Confirmed (AV БогомаZ): Continued internal IO through "patriotic" events like the Bryansk tennis tournament to boost morale and reinforce historical narratives.
  • Leverage Diplomatic Openings (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): RF intends to exploit any perceived cracks in Western unity or new diplomatic initiatives, such as the US lifting sanctions on "Belavia," to improve its international standing or secure concessions. Confirmed (Басурин о главном): RF intends to exploit US domestic political discussions (e.g., Jackson-Vanik amendment) for IO purposes. (Confidence: MEDIUM) Confirmed (ТАСС): RF intends to leverage the reopening of Krasnodar airport to project normalcy and economic recovery. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Courses of Action (COA):
  • MLCOA 1: Intensify Ground Offensive on Pokrovsk Axis and Exploit Dnipropetrovsk Offensive (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF main effort will remain the exploitation of the Pokrovsk breakthrough. Expect attempts to consolidate gains in Muravka, deepen penetration into Pokrovsk urban areas, and commit reserves. CRITICALLY, expect RF to immediately capitalize on the claimed "liberation" of Sosnovka to establish a new operational salient and attempt to encircle UAF forces in Velykomykhailivka, supported by aviation. Continued high-tempo probing attacks across other axes will aim to fix UAF reserves. Continued special forces operations in border buffer zones. Continued new mechanized offensives in directions like Kostiantynivka, as reported by STERNENKO. RF will likely continue pressure on Stepnohirsk with aviation support. Confirmed (Colonelcassad): Continued offensive on Lyman direction, with assaults on Zarechnoye.
  • MLCOA 2: Sustained Massed Air Strikes on DIB, Critical, and Civilian Infrastructure (HIGH CONFIDENCE): After a potential short regeneration period from the previous mass strike, RF will resume high-volume Shahed UAV and missile strikes, with a particular focus on degrading Ukrainian DIB and critical energy infrastructure. These strikes will be designed to overwhelm UAF air defenses. Confirmed (Повітряні Силі ЗС України): Expect new UAV groups entering southern Zaporizhzhia and KAB launches on Sumy, Northern Kharkiv, and Donetsk, indicating continued air campaign intensity against both front-line and border regions. Confirmed (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Kotsnews): Continued tactical drone-on-drone combat and anti-drone efforts will be a feature. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • MLCOA 3: Escalated Hybrid Operations Against NATO (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF will continue deliberate drone incursions into Polish, Latvian, and Lithuanian airspace, particularly targeting areas near critical logistics hubs and military installations (e.g., Rzeszów). They will utilize a mix of "Gerbera" decoys and combat Shaheds to test NATO's ROE, gather ISR, and generate diplomatic/political friction. Expect continued aggressive IO to deflect blame and mock NATO's response. The summoning of the Russian ambassador by Netherlands MFA will be met with further denials and counter-IO. France and UK offers of fighter jets to Poland will be used to frame NATO as escalatory. Confirmed (ТАСС): RF will use statements from Polish FM Sikorski urging Poles not to visit Russia/Belarus for IO to portray heightened tension and potential danger from NATO. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • MLCOA 4: Enhanced IO to Undermine Ukrainian/Western Cohesion (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF will aggressively push narratives blaming Ukraine for the Polish drone incursions (with new narratives implicating Baltic states), justifying the SMO as a "humanitarian mission," amplifying alleged Western hypocrisy/disunity, and exploiting internal RF social issues. Confirmed (Операция Z, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, РБК-Україна): Immediate IO around Zelenskyy's statements, Lavrov's comments, and Hungarian FM's accusations will aim to sow discord and deflect blame. Internal IO will continue to suppress dissent (e.g., Bykov, Pugacheva) and promote military strength and morale (e.g., military academy status, veteran support). Confirmed (ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, РБК-Україна, AV БогомаZ): Continued exploitation of Georgian political events, Arestovych interview, Slovakian FM's statements, and Fico's comments to sow discord. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Народная милиция ДНР): PSYOP efforts encouraging UAF surrenders will continue. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition): RF milbloggers will continue to dismiss statements from Western leaders (e.g., Finnish President Stubb) as out of touch. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • MLCOA 5: Maintain Internal Stability and Legitimacy (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF will continue to use internal propaganda and enforcement measures to maintain domestic stability and legitimacy of the government. TASS: Publicizing Rosgvardia's enhanced military role and combat successes will serve to project strength and stability internally. The focus on supporting SVO veterans will continue as a key morale-boosting effort. Promotion of military academies and suppression of dissenting voices are part of this COA. The re-opening of Krasnodar airport will be used to project normalcy. Confirmed (AV БогомаZ): Continued use of patriotic events and historical narratives to bolster internal cohesion. Confirmed (Новости Москвы): Efforts to project normalcy through public service announcements. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (ТАСС): RF will use reports of scam SMS messages to Russians to demonstrate internal security and vigilance. (Confidence: MEDIUM) Confirmed (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС): RF will continue to neglect fallen soldiers' graves, but this will become an increasing internal vulnerability if exposed. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • MLCOA 6: Exploitation of US-Belarus Diplomatic Opening (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): RF will closely monitor and attempt to leverage the US lifting sanctions on "Belavia" and potential renewed diplomatic ties with Belarus. This could involve attempts to present itself as a partner in regional stability, or to exploit any perceived weakening of Western resolve. Confirmed (Басурин о главном): RF will likely leverage any renewed US interest in Jackson-Vanik amendment for IO purposes, framing it as an attack on Russia. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

2.2. Recent tactical changes or adaptations (Confidence: HIGH)

• Expanded Offensive Zones: RF is demonstrating an expanded scope of ground operations, with new claims of advances and "liberation" in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Sosnovka), a significant shift from traditional axes. This indicates an adaptation to probe new areas or divert UAF resources. The direct MoD claim of Sosnovka's liberation (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) reinforces this tactical adaptation. TASS confirms the tactical objective of this advance: encircling UAF in Velykomykhailivka. Confirmed (Colonelcassad): Claim of assaulting Zarechnoye confirms continued adaptation of ground offensives on the Lyman axis.
• Enhanced Tactical Air Defense: MoD Russia's report of a Strela-10 SAM system downing a Shark UAV near Pokrovsk indicates RF is adapting its short-range air defense to protect offensive axes, a tactical adaptation to UAF drone activity. Басурин о главном claims Russian holding Rosele (Rostec) has begun supplying modernized anti-drone systems, indicating an ongoing adaptation to improve counter-UAV capabilities. Confirmed (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Kotsnews): The "Upyr" drone engaging a UAF interceptor drone highlights RF's adaptive tactics in air-to-air drone combat, showing efforts to counter UAF aerial ISR and strike capabilities, and RF claims success in this engagement. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Expanded Role for Internal Security Forces: TASS reports Rosgvardia has been armed with tank/anti-tank guns, SPGs, and MLRS, and has executed over 60,000 fire missions. This is a significant tactical adaptation, indicating the integration of Rosgvardia into direct combat operations beyond traditional internal security roles, potentially freeing up regular army units or augmenting frontline firepower.
• Persistent Urban Combat Focus: The reported urban combat within Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) indicates an adaptation to protracted, high-intensity urban warfare, suggesting RF is prepared for a grinding fight for key urban centers. WarGonzo video further supports RF's tactical adaptation to intense urban combat.
• Increased Depth of Hybrid Operations into NATO: The deliberate, large-scale drone incursions into Poland (and now Latvia/Lithuania's airspace closure and Lithuania's reported incursions) demonstrate an adaptation in RF's hybrid warfare, testing NATO's response thresholds and creating strategic friction with greater audacity. The coordinated closing of airspace by Poland and Latvia/Lithuania represents a reactive adaptation by NATO partners to RF's new level of probing. Poland's complete closure of all border crossings with Belarus (ASTRA) is a direct, reactive adaptation to RF's escalated hybrid actions.
• Enhanced Long-Range Drone Command & Control: TASS reports the creation of the first special UAV detachment with a control center hundreds of kilometers from the front line. This is a significant adaptation, enhancing RF's capability to conduct extended range ISR and strike missions with improved C2.
• Adaptive IO Response to Zelenskyy's Statements: RF's immediate and coordinated IO response to Zelenskyy's statements about Polish drones "distracting NATO" (Операция Z) and Lavrov's comments on the US arming Ukraine (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition) demonstrates highly agile and adaptive IO, capable of leveraging real-time diplomatic and political developments. The rapid response to Hungarian FM Szijjártó's statements also demonstrates this agility. Confirmed (ТАСС, РБК-Україна, AV БогомаZ): Immediate IO to exploit Georgian political events, Arestovych interview, and Slovakian FM's comments on drones in Poland further demonstrate adaptive and opportunistic IO. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Операция Z): Use of Bloomberg report to frame NATO as escalatory. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Civilian Airport Reopening (Operational Normalization/Flexibility): Confirmed (ASTRA, ТАСС, Mash на Донбассе): The reopening of Krasnodar airport, while civilian, could be viewed as an an RF adaptation to normalize civilian life and potentially free up military airfields, or provide additional logistical flexibility in southern RF. (Confidence: HIGH)

2.3. Logistics and sustainment status (Confidence: MEDIUM)

RF continues to demonstrate the ability to sustain multi-axis ground offensives and massed air attacks, suggesting sufficient, albeit strained, logistical capacity. The confirmed "Vostok" Grouping operations in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a new and potentially extended supply line, would place additional demands on RF logistics, but no immediate signs of failure are evident. The presence of Russian military vehicles operating in wooded and rural areas implies continued fuel and spare parts availability. The call for drone donations from "Два майора" for assault groups near Sumy indicates a potential shortfall in organic drone supply. TASS reports Rosgvardia has been armed with heavy weaponry and executed over 60,000 fire missions, indicating a high consumption rate of artillery, which requires robust logistical support. The reported field fire near Yenakiieve (Mash на Донбассе), if linked to military activity, could indicate disruptions to local logistics or infrastructure, but its direct military impact is unclear. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports a missile attack on RF artillery depots in Crimea, which, if confirmed, represents a significant logistical setback for RF, impacting their ammunition sustainment, particularly for the southern front. The temporary suspension of trading on the Moscow Exchange (TASS) and subsequent resumption indicate potential financial market volatility, which could indirectly impact long-term sustainment. The re-opening of Krasnodar airport (TASS, Новости Москвы) for flights may indicate an improvement in civilian logistics or a testing of civilian infrastructure resilience, which has implications for general logistical flow in the southern regions of RF. Confirmed (Север.Реалии): Putin's transfer of French gas giant assets to a firm without employees, whose director had received "scandalous state contracts," suggests potential internal corruption or restructuring that could impact long-term resource allocation or efficiency, though the immediate impact on frontline logistics is unclear. Confirmed (ТАСС): Hard landing of Mi-8 in Kaliningrad due to weather, while not combat-related, highlights ongoing challenges for RF aviation logistics. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС): Video of neglected graves of Russian soldiers in Krasnoyarsk Krai could indicate issues with morale and support for military families, indirectly affecting long-term recruitment and sustainment. (Confidence: HIGH)

2.4. Command and control effectiveness (Confidence: HIGH)

RF Command and Control (C2) demonstrates high effectiveness in coordinating multi-domain operations:

• Multi-Domain Synchronization: The execution of a massed air attack alongside multi-axis ground offensives, and concurrent hybrid operations against NATO, demonstrates a sophisticated and effective C2 structure capable of synchronizing forces across air, land, and information domains.
• Adaptive Targeting: The rapid shift in targeting focus to Ukrainian DIB facilities and national C2 infrastructure, as well as the immediate exploitation of the Pokrovsk breakthrough, indicates agile C2 capable of adapting to battlefield developments and prioritizing high-value targets.
• Information Warfare Integration: The immediate and coordinated exploitation of Zelenskyy's statements, Lavrov's comments, and Hungarian FM Szijjártó's statements for complex IO campaigns, coupled with rapid dissemination of narratives (e.g., blaming UAF for civilian casualties in Donetsk), demonstrates highly effective integration of IO into strategic and operational C2. Confirmed (Операция Z, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition): The rapid response to Zelenskyy's comments on Polish drones, Lavrov's statements, and Hungarian FM's comments underscores the agility and coordination of RF IO C2 at the highest levels. Confirmed (ТАСС, РБК-Україна, AV БогомаZ): Coordinated IO response to various diplomatic and domestic events further highlights effective C2. Confirmed (Народная милиция ДНР): Effective C2 for PSYOP efforts. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Emerging Drone C2: TASS reports the creation of the first special UAV detachment with a control center hundreds of kilometers from the front line. This represents a significant enhancement of RF's drone C2 capabilities. The claim by Народная милиция ДНР (238 Brigade) to have destroyed a UAF UAV control post in Berestok indicates RF's awareness of and targeting of UAF drone C2 nodes.
• Decentralized Tactical Initiative: The repeated claims of localized advances by specific units (e.g., 430th Motorized Rifle Regiment, "Vostok" Grouping, 36th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, 63rd Separate Spetsnaz Company), even if minor, suggest a level of decentralized tactical initiative under overall strategic guidance. Rosgvardia's operational effectiveness in executing 60,000 fire missions further supports a robust, if centralized, C2 structure capable of delegating fire tasks. WarGonzo video further supports RF's tactical decision-making in urban combat. Confirmed (MoD Russia): "Terminator" training video, while in a rear area, suggests a maintained focus on unit-level combat readiness and C2 for specialized armored vehicles.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian force posture and readiness (Confidence: HIGH)

UAF maintains a resilient defensive posture, successfully repelling 130 RF attacks across all major axes in the last 24 hours. UAF drone operators are demonstrating tactical effectiveness against RF infantry, vehicles, and logistics (60,000+ targets in August). Ukrainian air defenses achieved a 94% interception rate (62 of 66 UAVs) against a significant RF air attack. UAF continues to demonstrate asymmetric warfare capabilities through resistance movements like "ATESH" conducting deep strikes within RF territory. The prompt deployment of air defense and aircraft by Poland, Sweden, and Netherlands in response to RF incursions shows strengthening, albeit reactive, international support. UAF is actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to enhance international cooperation and air defense capabilities, including sharing expertise on countering Shaheds. STERNENKO: UAF is actively engaged in counter-drone operations, launching drones to target Russian mechanized advances on the Kostiantynivka direction, indicating a high state of readiness and offensive capabilities with UAVs, particularly in response to new RF offensives. Оперативний ЗСУ: The "Lyubart" brigade is showcased as an elite, well-equipped unit, indicating the presence of high-readiness formations within UAF. Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦: The diplomatic engagement with the Finnish President indicates strong international support, which bolsters morale and political readiness. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС highlights the effectiveness of "waiting drones" as a UAF tactical adaptation. The meeting of the Coordination Headquarters for POWs with Azov families demonstrates continued support for UAF personnel and their families, a key morale factor. The demining operations in Kharkiv Oblast (Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА) signify active efforts to restore liberated territories and secure civilian populations. Confirmed (Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"): Video of public solidarity and support for UAF reinforces strong civilian-military cohesion and morale. Confirmed (Оперативний ЗСУ): Report on an arrest in Shargorod for the murder of two children, indicating transparency and focus on internal security/justice during wartime. Confirmed (Офіс Генерального прокурора): Court selected a pre-trial restraint for NABU official suspected of inaccurate property declaration, demonstrating ongoing efforts to maintain transparency and combat corruption, which strengthens institutional readiness. (Confidence: HIGH) The loss of a Su-27 pilot, Major Borovyk, will be a blow to morale but will likely be framed as a heroic sacrifice, maintaining public resolve.

• Resource requirements and constraints: Sustained high-volume RF air attacks necessitate continuous replenishment and upgrading of UAF air defense munitions and platforms, including the additional Patriot systems requested by Poland. The intensification of ground combat across multiple axes, particularly on the Pokrovsk front, places severe strain on UAF manpower, armored vehicle reserves, and artillery ammunition. Protecting critical DIB facilities will require additional, advanced air defense assets that are currently dispersed or limited. Continued Western aid, including the newly approved $400 million from the US and Sweden's 20th package (now confirmed at $836 million, with future commitments of $4.276 billion annually for 2026-2027), remains critical. The threat of RF "swarm drone" and long-range stealth drone adoption necessitates urgent investment in advanced counter-UAV and EW capabilities. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade's recruitment for UAV repair specialists indicates a critical need for technical personnel and resources to maintain drone superiority. STERNENKO's call for donations for drones reinforces the ongoing resource requirement. The Hungarian FM's accusations (РБК-Україна, Операция Z) highlight potential diplomatic constraints that could impact future aid. The need for remote VLC for soldiers indicates ongoing personnel management challenges for those undergoing treatment. Confirmed (Оперативний ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ): The loss of a Su-27 pilot and aircraft underscores the critical need for advanced air defense, pilot training, and aircraft replacement, exacerbating existing constraints. Confirmed (РБК-Україна): Ukraine's reaction to the Slovakian FM's comments highlights the diplomatic burden of maintaining international support and countering divisive narratives.

3.2. Recent tactical successes or setbacks (Confidence: HIGH)

• Successes: High interception rate (94%) against RF UAV attack (62/66). Successful repulsion of 130 RF attacks across multiple axes. Effective drone operations by UAF units against RF personnel and equipment (60,000+ targets in August). "ATESH" sabotage operation in Tula. Agreement with Poland for tactical military cooperation against UAVs. Sweden and Netherlands pledging additional air defense assets to Poland. EU condemning RF airspace violation and announcing increased sanctions. UAF is actively recruiting and training UAV repair specialists to sustain drone operations. CRITICAL: Successful HUR strike on an RF Black Sea Fleet Project MPSV07 vessel, disabling a key support asset. US Congress approved $400 million in military aid. Europe promising to cease Russian gas purchases by end of 2026. РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO: Sweden has provided its 20th package of military aid to Ukraine ($836M), demonstrating continued international support, and committed $4.276B annually for 2026-2027. STERNENKO: UAF drones successfully targeted Russian military equipment in response to a mechanized offensive on the Kostiantynivka direction, indicating effective counter-offensive drone operations. РБК-Україна: Lukashenko released 52 more political prisoners, following US diplomatic engagement, which could be leveraged as a diplomatic success for Ukraine if it leads to reduced Belarusian complicity with RF. ТАСС reports Britain and France offered to send Eurofighter and Rafale fighters to Poland in connection with the drone incident. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showcases effective UAF "waiting drones." Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports significant demining efforts, securing territory for civilians. Confirmed (Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"): Public show of solidarity reinforces morale and national unity. Confirmed (Оперативний ЗСУ): Swift legal action against alleged child murderer in Shargorod demonstrates commitment to justice and internal order. Confirmed (Офіс Генерального прокурора): Legal action against a NABU official for alleged inaccurate property declaration, demonstrating continued commitment to combating corruption. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Setbacks: RF exploitation of the Pokrovsk breakthrough, leading to urban combat within Pokrovsk city limits. Continued significant damage to DIB, energy, and civilian infrastructure from RF deep strikes. Civilian casualties from RF attacks remain high, particularly in Yarova (25 dead) and Sumy (educational institution, Holy Resurrection Cathedral). Civilian death in Prymorske and death of a 15-year-old boy in Kharkiv due to RF shelling underscore the ongoing human cost. Loss of Turkish BMC Kirpi and Ukrainian "Kozak-7" armored vehicles in occupied DPR indicates UAF losses in ground engagements. RF claims of controlling 50% of Pereyizne (Siversk direction) represent a localized territorial loss. CRITICAL: RF's "liberation" of Sosnovka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Рыбарь, Операция Z, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Воин DV, TASS, Андрей Марочко), represents a significant territorial setback for UAF and a new threat to Velykomykhailivka. Воин DV video confirms successful RF drone strikes on UAF personnel and vehicles in the South Donetsk direction. Zvиздец Мангусту report of RF assault groups reaching Oleksandrivka, even if not holding, indicates persistent pressure and potential for future setbacks on the Lyman direction. The drone hit on the Holy Resurrection Cathedral in Sumy is a significant cultural/psychological setback. RF claims of destroying a UAF UAV control point and communication antenna in Konstantinovka direction, if verified, represent a setback for UAF drone operations and C2. The alleged strike on an "MBEC node" in Vilkove, Odesa Oblast, if verified, represents a setback for UAF naval drone capabilities. STERNENKO: Russian mechanized offensive on Kostiantynivka direction, indicating a new tactical setback requiring UAF response. РБК-Україна: Hungarian Foreign Minister's accusations against Kyiv indicate a diplomatic setback that could strain relations and potentially impact support. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports ongoing heavy combat and destruction in Stepnohirsk, indicating sustained pressure and potential UAF losses. Народная милиция ДНР (238 Brigade) claims to have destroyed a UAF UAV control post in Berestok, which, if confirmed, is a tactical setback for UAF drone operations. Confirmed (Оперативний ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Николаевский Ванёк): Loss of UAF Major Oleksandr Borovyk and Su-27 aircraft in Zaporizhzhia direction is a critical operational setback, impacting air defense and offensive air capabilities. Confirmed (РБК-Україна): Ukraine's reaction to Slovakian FM's "cynical statement" on drones in Poland indicates a diplomatic setback, where a NATO/EU ally is perceived as undermining Ukrainian efforts or narratives.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

4.1. Propaganda and disinformation campaigns (Confidence: HIGH)

RF is running a highly active and adaptive propaganda campaign. Key narratives include:

• NATO provocation: Blaming NATO for escalating the conflict, with new narratives attributing UAF drone attacks to Baltic states. Confirmed (Операция Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ): Zelenskyy is "making excuses" for drones in Poland, claiming they distract NATO from Ukraine. This is a direct RF IO push to discredit Zelenskyy and Ukrainian narratives. TASS is leveraging Poland's preparation of a "military-defensive response" to the drone incident to frame NATO as escalatory. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition: Lavrov blames US for arming Kyiv, advocating for addressing "root causes." This is a clear RF IO effort to shift blame and push for a diplomatic resolution on RF's terms. Операция Z attributes claims to "Военкоры Русской Весны" about Hungarian FM Szijjártó stating that Ukraine will not achieve EU membership without restoring rights for Zakarpattia Hungarians, attempting to create internal EU discord and pressure Ukraine. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition claims "Baltic states ask the US not to abandon them," an attempt to sow fear and imply US unreliability. Confirmed (РБК-Україна): Slovakian FM's statement on drones in Poland being "cynical" provides RF IO with ammunition to highlight internal EU disunity. Confirmed (Kotsnews): "Baltic states ask the US not to abandon them." This is an RF IO attempt to sow discord and fear within NATO. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (ТАСС): Polish FM Radoslaw Sikorski's call for Poles not to visit Russia and Belarus will be used by RF IO to portray NATO as escalating tensions. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Ukraine's desperation: Claiming Ukraine is desperate for manpower (e.g., TASS/Miroshnik claim of mobilizing 15-year-olds), money, and resources. Военкор Котенок: Georgian special services report detention of Ukrainian citizens attempting to smuggle 2.4 kg of hexogen, which RF IO will leverage to portray Ukraine as engaging in terrorism. Confirmed (Народная милиция ДНР): Active PSYOP encouraging UAF soldiers to surrender, implying desperation. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Western internal decay/disunity: Heavily exploiting US domestic events (Charlie Kirk shooting, school shootings, murder of Iryna Zarutska) to portray chaos and political division. Alex Parker Returns: Russian military bloggers are emphasizing the lifting of sanctions on Belavia as a sign of progress and implied weakening of Western resolve, and a resolution to spare parts shortages. Confirmed (ТАСС): Fico's statement on not supporting sanctions against Russia unless the EC provides climate/industry proposals indicates RF IO is actively seeking and amplifying internal EU divisions. Confirmed (Два майора): Reports of "sabotage" in Germany are likely leveraged by RF IO to portray instability in Western countries. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
• RF victimhood/legitimacy: Denying responsibility for Polish drone incursions, attributing UAF strikes on Donetsk to "NATO MLRS," and justifying the SMO as a "humanitarian mission." Promoting "Russian code" and military heroes. TASS: Rosgvardia has been armed with heavy weaponry and executed over 60,000 fire missions, emphasizing the legitimacy and scale of RF's "special operation" and projecting strength. Colonelcassad: Shares an image of a Felix Dzerzhinsky statue on his 148th birthday, a historical/ideological IO message. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники: Reporting on a convicted soldier breaking his wife's skull provides an internal IO vulnerability for RF, as it depicts criminal behavior within military ranks. Новости Москвы: Promoting visibility of the ISS in Moscow is an internal IO effort to project normalcy and distract from the conflict. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition: Video featuring Ksenia Semenova, Deputy Executive Director of the Association of SVO Veterans, focusing on supporting families of fallen soldiers and veterans, is a clear internal RF IO effort to bolster morale, demonstrate care for military personnel and their families, and maintain public support for the "Special Military Operation." TASS reports writer Dmitry Bykov added to list of terrorists and extremists, demonstrating continued internal suppression of dissent. TASS reports Maria Zakharova called Alla Pugacheva's interview a "bazaar of hypocrisy," further showing internal political/cultural IO. Рыбарь shares a graphic titled "Ballast for Germany," likely anti-German IO. Воин DV promotes the re-designation of a Far Eastern Military Academy as "Guards," indicating internal morale boosting. Confirmed (ТАСС): Georgian arrests for corruption are used to paint a picture of instability in a pro-Western nation. Confirmed (Военкор Котенок): Video of Sobchak interviewing Arestovych can be used to discredit Ukrainian figures or portray them as disconnected from the realities of the war. Confirmed (AV БогомаZ): Patriotic events in Bryansk (tennis tournament) are used to reinforce historical narratives and boost local morale. Confirmed (ТАСС): Reports of scam SMS messages to Russians are framed as a general issue, without direct military links. (Confidence: MEDIUM) Confirmed (Colonelcassad): Mural in Kazan station celebrating military history is a form of internal patriotic IO. (Confidence: LOW)
• UAF war crimes: Disseminating POW testimonies and disillusioned mercenary accounts to accuse Ukraine of mistreatment.
• Technological superiority: Showcasing domestic drone development ("Dronnitsa," MCHS ZALA ZARYA UAVs, new special UAV detachment with long-range C2) and highlighting partner nation advancements (China's PD-2900 drone). Басурин о главном claims Russian holding Rosele (Rostec) has begun supplying modernized anti-drone systems, promoting RF technological advancement. Confirmed (Fighterbomber): RF IO claims UAF is wasting anti-aircraft missiles on "friendly fire," attempting to portray UAF incompetence. (Confidence: MEDIUM) Confirmed (Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition): RF milbloggers showcase "Upyr" drone successfully evading UAF interceptor, promoting RF drone capability. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Военкор Котенок): RF milblogger claims RF Air-Space Forces "downed" a UAF Su-27, promoting RF air superiority. (Confidence: HIGH)

4.2. Public sentiment and morale factors (Confidence: HIGH)

• Ukrainian: Civilian morale is under severe strain due to persistent deep strikes on critical and civilian infrastructure. However, the high UAF air defense interception rates, successful resistance operations (ATESH), and crucially, the successful HUR strike on the Black Sea Fleet vessel, provide counterpoints for resilience and demonstrate Ukrainian effectiveness. The GSU's enemy loss figures are regularly published to boost morale. There is strong national unity and a desire for accountability for RF actions. The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade's recruitment campaign and STERNENKO's call for donations demonstrate continued proactive engagement and a resilient spirit. STERNENKO: Video showcasing UAF drones successfully targeting RF mechanized advance will boost morale and confidence in UAF capabilities. Оперативний ЗСУ: Showcasing the "Lyubart" brigade will boost morale and reinforce the image of elite, effective UAF units. Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦: Photos with Finnish President Alexander Stubb reinforce strong international support, boosting morale. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video highlights effective UAF drone operations, boosting morale. The meeting of the Coordination Headquarters for POWs with Azov families demonstrates continued support for UAF personnel and their families, a key morale factor. The demining operations in Kharkiv Oblast provide a positive narrative of securing liberated territories and protecting civilians. Confirmed (Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"): Video of public solidarity and support for UAF boosts national unity and morale. Confirmed (Оперативний ЗСУ): Reporting on an arrest in Shargorod for the murder of two children, while tragic, also demonstrates the government's commitment to justice and internal order, which can contribute to public trust. Confirmed (Офіс Генерального прокурора): Prosecutorial action against a NABU official for alleged corruption can boost public trust in rule of law. (Confidence: HIGH) The loss of a Su-27 pilot, Major Borovyk, will be a blow to morale but will likely be framed as a heroic sacrifice, maintaining public resolve. Confirmed (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦): Video of a mother discussing her son's death as a "feat" could be used to reinforce patriotic sacrifice narrative within Ukraine, or to highlight the human cost. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Russian: RF media efforts aim to maintain a sense of normalcy and portray the war as a righteous and successful endeavor. The high claimed interception rates of Ukrainian UAVs over RF territory are intended to reassure the public. Warnings from officials like the Belgorod governor about mass drone attacks indicate a heightened state of alert and potential public fear. TASS: Rosgvardia's expanded role and successes will be used to boost domestic morale and project strength. Colonelcassad: Commemorating Dzerzhinsky is an ideological message aimed at reinforcing historical narratives and national identity. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники: Reporting on a soldier's criminal act could negatively impact morale and public perception of military discipline, though it's an isolated incident. Новости Москвы: Promoting visibility of the ISS is an attempt to project normalcy and distract from the conflict. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition: Focus on supporting SVO veterans and their families aims to bolster public morale, demonstrate state care, and reinforce support for the conflict. TASS listing Bykov as terrorist/extremist, and Zakharova's comments on Pugacheva's interview are aimed at suppressing dissent and controlling public narrative. Воин DV promoting Far Eastern Military Academy status, indicates efforts to boost internal military morale. Басурин о главном's video of a child speaking is a form of emotional propaganda targeting internal audiences. Confirmed (AV БогомаZ): Patriotic events in Bryansk (tennis tournament) are designed to reinforce historical narratives, celebrate "victory," and boost local morale. The reopening of Krasnodar airport (ASTRA, TASS) contributes to a sense of normalcy and potentially improved quality of life for citizens in the region. Confirmed (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС): Video of neglected graves of fallen Russian soldiers in Krasnoyarsk Krai could significantly harm RF morale and legitimacy if widely circulated internally. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (ТАСС): Mi-8 hard landing in Kaliningrad and the lack of casualties will be used to reassure the public about safety. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (ТАСС): Reports of scam SMS messages could indicate a general public concern about financial security, which could be leveraged by internal IO for vigilance narratives. (Confidence: MEDIUM) Confirmed (Kotsnews): "Baltic states ask the US not to abandon them" could be used to reinforce a narrative of Russian strength and Western weakness. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition): Dismissal of Finnish President Stubb's statements aims to maintain a positive internal narrative about the war's progress. (Confidence: HIGH)

4.3. International support and diplomatic developments (Confidence: HIGH)

• Strengthened NATO/EU unity: The deliberate RF drone incursions into Poland and the subsequent NATO Article 4 consultation, along with immediate commitments of air defense assets from Sweden and Netherlands, demonstrate a hardening of NATO's stance. The EU's condemnation and announced increased sanctions against RF further highlight unified international resolve. Poland's urgent request for more air defense from NATO, specifically Patriot systems, signals continued commitment but also heightened concern. Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania have closed their airspaces along the border with Belarus and Russia indefinitely, and Poland has notified Belarus of the closure of all remaining border crossings with Belarus from 12 SEP 25, including road and rail points. Confirmed (ТАСС, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Операція Z, Оперативний ЗСУ): Netherlands MFA summoned the Russian ambassador regarding the drone incident over Poland, indicating a unified diplomatic response from NATO members. Drones also entered Lithuanian airspace. Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO: Sweden has provided its 20th package of military aid to Ukraine ($836M), and plans to allocate $4.276 billion annually for 2026-2027, demonstrating strong, sustained military support. ТАСС reports Britain and France offered to send Eurofighter and Rafale fighters to Poland in connection with the drone incident. Confirmed (РБК-Україна): Ukraine has reacted to the "cynical statement" by the Slovakian Foreign Minister regarding drones in Poland, indicating ongoing diplomatic efforts to counter RF narratives and maintain international unity. Confirmed (ТАСС): Polish FM Radoslaw Sikorski emotionally urged Poles not to visit Russia and Belarus, reinforcing the sense of heightened tension and potentially solidifying the diplomatic stance against Russia and Belarus. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Операция Z): Bloomberg reports NATO is strengthening its eastern flank, confirming allied response to the drone incident. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Continued US support: The US House of Representatives approved $400 million in aid for Ukraine for FY226, indicating continued financial commitment. РБК-Україна: Lukashenko released 52 more political prisoners following US diplomatic engagement, indicating a potential shift in US engagement with Belarus, possibly aimed at reducing Belarusian dependence on Russia. Confirmed (Colonelcassad): US to lift some sanctions on Belarus, including "Belavia," further reinforcing a potential shift in US-Belarus relations. Confirmed (Басурин о главном): US reportedly wants to return Jackson-Vanik amendment, which could signal a hardening US stance on human rights, with potential diplomatic implications. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
• Deepening partnerships: China's advancements in drone technology (PD-2900) and exercises ("swarm drones") are being observed by RF, signaling potential future military-technological cooperation. Armenia states it is not considering removing the Russian military base, indicating stability in some RF regional alliances.
• Diplomatic outreach: Zelenskiy's engagement with key European leaders and NATO leadership underscores the continued importance of diplomatic efforts. Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦: Photos of President Zelenskyy with Finnish President Alexander Stubb highlight strong diplomatic ties. РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Hungarian Foreign Minister's accusations against Kyiv indicate diplomatic friction, which could be exploited by RF to weaken EU unity. Confirmed (ТАСС): Georgian arrests for corruption, Fico's statement on sanctions, are likely to be leveraged by RF to show discord among Ukraine's potential allies or Western partners.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most likely enemy courses of action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

• MLCOA 1: Intensify Ground Offensive on Pokrovsk Axis and Exploit Dnipropetrovsk Offensive (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF main effort will remain the exploitation of the Pokrovsk breakthrough. Expect attempts to consolidate gains in Muravka, deepen penetration into Pokrovsk urban areas, and commit reserves to widen the salient, pushing towards Udachnoye. CRITICALLY, expect RF to immediately capitalize on the claimed "liberation" of Sosnovka to establish a new operational salient and attempt to encircle UAF forces in Velykomykhailivka, supported by aviation and potentially newly equipped Rosgvardia units. RF will continue pressure on Stepnohirsk. Continued high-tempo probing attacks across other axes will aim to fix UAF reserves and prevent reinforcement of Pokrovsk. Continued new mechanized offensives in directions like Kostiantynivka are highly probable. Confirmed (Colonelcassad): Continued offensive on Lyman direction, with assaults on Zarechnoye.
• MLCOA 2: Sustained Massed Air Strikes on DIB, Critical, and Civilian Infrastructure (HIGH CONFIDENCE): After a potential short regeneration period from the previous mass strike, RF will resume high-volume Shahed UAV and missile strikes, with a particular focus on degrading Ukrainian DIB and critical energy infrastructure. These strikes will be designed to overwhelm UAF air defenses. Confirmed (Повітряні Силі ЗС України): Expect new UAV groups entering southern Zaporizhzhia and KAB launches on Sumy, Northern Kharkiv, and Donetsk, indicating continued air campaign intensity against both front-line and border regions, likely supported by modernized anti-drone systems. Confirmed (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Kotsnews): Ongoing drone-on-drone combat will characterize aerial engagements. (Confidence: HIGH)
• MLCOA 3: Escalated Hybrid Operations Against NATO (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF will continue deliberate drone incursions into Polish, Latvian, and Lithuanian airspace, particularly targeting areas near critical logistics hubs and military installations (e.g., Rzeszów). They will utilize a mix of "Gerbera" decoys and combat Shaheds to test NATO's ROE, gather ISR, and generate diplomatic/political friction. Expect continued aggressive IO to deflect blame and mock NATO's response. The summoning of the Russian ambassador by Netherlands MFA will be met with further denials and counter-IO. RF will exploit offers of fighter jets to Poland to frame NATO as escalatory. Confirmed (ТАСС): RF will use Polish FM Sikorski's statements for IO purposes, framing them as escalatory. (Confidence: HIGH)
• MLCOA 4: Enhanced IO to Undermine Ukrainian/Western Cohesion (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF will aggressively push narratives blaming Ukraine for the Polish drone incursions (with new narratives implicating Baltic states), justifying the SMO as a "humanitarian mission," amplifying alleged Western hypocrisy/disunity, and exploiting internal RF social issues. Confirmed (Операция Z, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, РБК-Україна): Immediate IO around Zelenskyy's statements, Lavrov's comments, and Hungarian FM's accusations will aim to sow discord and deflect blame. Internal IO will continue to suppress dissent (e.g., Bykov, Pugacheva) and promote military strength and morale (e.g., military academy status, veteran support). Confirmed (ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, РБК-Україна, AV БогомаZ): Continued exploitation of Georgian political events, Arestovych interview, Slovakian FM's statements, and Fico's comments to sow discord. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Народная милиция ДНР): Continued PSYOP to undermine UAF morale. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition): RF milbloggers will continue to dismiss critical statements from Western leaders. (Confidence: HIGH)
• MLCOA 5: Maintain Internal Stability and Legitimacy (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF will continue to use internal propaganda and enforcement measures to maintain domestic stability and legitimacy of the government. TASS: Publicizing Rosgvardia's enhanced military role and combat successes will serve to project strength and stability internally. The focus on supporting SVO veterans will continue as a key morale-boosting effort. Promotion of military academies and suppression of dissenting voices are part of this COA. The re-opening of Krasnodar airport will be used to project normalcy. Confirmed (AV БогомаZ): Continued use of patriotic events and historical narratives to bolster internal cohesion. Confirmed (Новости Москвы): Efforts to normalize daily life through public service announcements. (Confidence: HIGH) Confirmed (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС): While RF will attempt to maintain legitimacy, the issue of neglected graves may become an internal vulnerability. (Confidence: HIGH)
• MLCOA 6: Exploitation of US-Belarus Diplomatic Opening (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): RF will closely monitor and attempt to leverage the US lifting sanctions on "Belavia" and potential renewed diplomatic ties with Belarus. This could involve attempts to present itself as a partner in regional stability, or to exploit any perceived weakening of Western resolve. Confirmed (Басурин о главном): RF will likely leverage any renewed US interest in Jackson-Vanik amendment for IO purposes. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

5.2. Most dangerous enemy courses of action (MDCOA) (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• MDCOA 1: Direct, Limited Conventional Strike on NATO Territory (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): RF conducts a deliberate, limited conventional missile or aviation strike on a non-critical military installation, logistical hub, or infrastructure target within a NATO member state (e.g., Poland or a Baltic state). This would be a clear, albeit limited, violation of NATO Article 5 territory, aimed at directly testing NATO's resolve and unity, while still attempting to manage escalation. The aggressive tone of RF milbloggers and the deliberate nature of drone incursions increase the risk of such a "signaling" strike, especially in response to NATO PVO deployments now confirmed by Sweden and the urgent request for Patriot systems by Poland. Polish FM Sikorski's statement highlighting "deliberately aimed" drones further suggests a calculated, escalatory intent from RF. The summoning of the Russian ambassador by Netherlands MFA indicates RF actions are having direct diplomatic consequences, which could further increase RF's motivation for a signaling strike to demonstrate resolve. The offer by Britain and France to send fighters to Poland could be seen by RF as a direct challenge, increasing the probability of a signaling strike.
• MDCOA 2: Expanded Ground Offensive Towards Kharkiv City (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): Following the current pressure on Vovchansk and claims of UAF reserve movements, RF could initiate a larger-scale ground offensive from the north/northeast towards Kharkiv City. This would aim to capture a major urban center, divert significant UAF resources, and create a major psychological victory for RF. The increased use of guided aerial bombs on eastern Kharkiv and the confirmed operations of RF special forces (e.g., "Anvar" detachment) in the Kharkiv/Chernihiv buffer zones could be a direct precursor. Rosgvardia's newly integrated heavy weaponry could be deployed to support such an offensive.
• MDCOA 3: Strategic Infrastructure Collapse Due to Sustained Mass Strikes (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Impact): RF successfully executes a series of coordinated massed missile and drone strikes that overwhelm UAF air defenses and cause cascading failures in Ukraine's critical energy grid, leading to widespread, prolonged power outages across major population centers during the pre-winter/winter period. This would aim to induce a humanitarian crisis, force concessions, and severely degrade Ukraine's military sustainment capacity. The continued high volume of drone attacks, even if missile strikes are temporarily reduced, maintains this threat. Confirmed (Повітряні Силі ЗС України): New UAV groups entering Zaporizhzhia and KAB launches on Sumy, Northern Kharkiv, and Donetsk indicate continued pressure on infrastructure, increasing the likelihood of this MDCOA's impact.
• MDCOA 4: Adoption of Advanced "Swarm Drone" Tactics and Long-Range Stealth Drones (LOW CONFIDENCE - Immediate, MEDIUM - Mid-Term): Based on Colonelcassad's highlighted Chinese exercises and his new report on the PD-2900 stealth kamikaze drone, RF could attempt to rapidly integrate and deploy advanced "swarm drone" tactics or acquire/deploy similar long-range stealth drones. While immediate full-scale operationalization of swarm tactics is unlikely, even limited, experimental deployment of such capabilities could present a novel and extremely challenging threat for UAF air defenses and ground forces. The claims of modernized anti-drone systems (Басурин о главном) indicate RF is already engaged in an asymmetric drone arms race, increasing the likelihood of rapid adoption of new drone capabilities.

5.3. Timeline estimates and decision points (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• Next 24-48 hours:
  • Decision Point: UAF will need to decide on the level of response to RF's Pokrovsk exploitation and the confirmed "liberation" of Sosnovka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and new mechanized offensives on the Kostiantynivka direction. Immediate verification of these claims is critical. UAF needs to assess RF capabilities to encircle Velykomykhailivka.
  • Decision Point: NATO will respond to Article 4 consultations. The overall response, particularly regarding the urgent request for Patriot systems, will influence RF's subsequent actions in probing NATO airspace. CRITICALLY, Poland's indefinite border closure with Belarus and Latvia/Lithuania's airspace closure will require immediate, coordinated assessment by NATO and UAF regarding its implications for security, logistics, and potential RF reactions. The Netherlands MFA summoning the Russian ambassador for the drone incident over Poland adds another diplomatic pressure point for RF to respond to. Offers from Britain and France to send fighters will also require rapid assessment.
  • Decision Point: UAF leadership will evaluate the BDA on DIB targets and decide on immediate repair priorities, dispersal, or relocation of critical production capabilities.
  • Decision Point: UAF PSYOP and STRATCOM will need to decide on the most effective counter-narrative strategy to combat RF's exploitation of the Polish drone incident, Zelenskyy's statements, Lavrov's comments, and the alleged hexogen smuggling. CRITICALLY, UAF STRATCOM must immediately prepare to counter RF IO narratives about the US-Belarus diplomatic initiative (Lukashenko meeting John Cole, prisoner release, sanctions lifted on Belavia, US embassy to Minsk) by framing them as an attempt to divert attention from the conflict or as a tactic to influence US policy, rather than a genuine shift towards peace. Counter Hungarian FM Szijjártó's statements regarding EU membership conditions. Counter the "cynical statement" by the Slovakian Foreign Minister. Leverage the video of neglected graves of Russian soldiers as a powerful IO tool.
  • Decision Point: UAF intelligence will need to assess the implications of Rosgvardia's new heavy weaponry and extensive combat missions for RF's overall combat power and potential for new tactical applications.
  • Decision Point: UAF on the Siversk and Lyman directions will need to assess the RF control over Pereyizne and advances in Kirovsk (Zarichne) and Katerynivka, and the reported "liberation" of Zelenyi Hai and fighting for Torske, and initiate immediate tactical responses. CRITICALLY, UAF needs to verify the RF claim of assaulting Zarechnoye.
  • Decision Point: UAF South Donetsk forces will need to assess the impact of recent RF drone strikes on UAF personnel and vehicles, as shown in the Воин DV video, and adjust force protection and counter-drone tactics accordingly.
  • Decision Point: UAF intelligence will assess the impact of the HUR strike on the RF Project MPSV07 vessel and how this degrades RF Black Sea Fleet operations, informing future naval asymmetric strike planning. CRITICALLY, UAF needs to assess the new enemy UAV groups entering southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast from TOT, heading north/northwest, and KAB launches on Sumy, Northern Kharkiv, and Donetsk for their immediate threat and potential targets, and adjust air defense accordingly.
  • Decision Point: UAF leadership will evaluate the remote VLC implementation and its impact on soldier care and administrative efficiency.
  • Decision Point: UAF intelligence needs to assess the significance of Belarus warning Poland about drones and how this impacts future hybrid operations and IO.
  • Decision Point: UAF intelligence needs to assess the impact of the alleged destruction of a UAF UAV control post in Berestok by RF 238th Brigade and implement mitigation for drone C2.
  • Decision Point: UAF intelligence needs to conduct a rapid BDA of the loss of Major Oleksandr Borovyk and the Su-27 aircraft in the Zaporizhzhia direction and adjust air operations and counter-air defense strategies.
  • Decision Point: UAF intelligence should assess the potential IO opportunities from the reported Mi-8 hard landing in Kaliningrad, even if not directly combat-related.
• Next 72-96 hours:
  • Decision Point: RF will likely assess the effectiveness of their massed air strikes and the NATO response to their incursions. This will inform their decision on the timing and scale of future air campaigns and hybrid operations.
  • Decision Point: The sustained high tempo of ground combat will force UAF to make critical decisions on force rotation, logistical prioritization, and the allocation of limited resources across active fronts. The state of readiness for winter will become increasingly critical.
  • Decision Point: UAF intelligence will need to conduct a rapid assessment of potential RF adoption of "swarm drone" tactics and long-range stealth drones, informed by the Chinese military exercise video and the PD-2900 report. This will drive requirements for new counter-UAV and air defense doctrines and technologies.
  • Decision Point: UAF will need to assess whether the US diplomatic outreach to Belarus signals a genuine shift in Minsk's stance or a tactical maneuver by Lukashenko, and how this impacts the security of Ukraine's northern border.
  • Decision Point: UAF intelligence needs to monitor the impact of the Moscow Exchange suspension and re-opening for any wider economic implications for RF's war effort.
  • Decision Point: UAF intelligence needs to assess the implications of Krasnodar airport reopening for civilian use for any potential military or dual-use logistical advantages for RF.

ACTIONABLE INTELLIGENCE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. IMMEDIATE AIR DEFENSE REDEPLOYMENT & PROTECTION (Pokrovsk, DIBs & Border Regions, Nationwide Strategic Threats, Southern Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Northern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Krasnodar Airspace): Immediately redeploy mobile, advanced air defense systems (e.g., NASAMS, IRIS-T, Patriot) to establish layered defense around the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad axis to protect against tactical aviation (KABs) and to cover key logistics nodes and concentrations of UAF forces. Prioritize protection of industrial facilities in Pokrovsk, given the direct threat. Given new reports of KAB launches on Donetsk, Sumy, and northern Kharkiv Oblasts, ensure immediate air defense strengthening and civilian protection measures in these vulnerable border and front-line regions. Additionally, given the new UAV activity towards Sumy, in Chernihiv Oblast, and confirmed drone attacks on Synelnykove (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) and the educational institution in Sumy, allocate additional mobile air defense and electronic warfare (EW) assets to these northern and central sectors to counter RF reconnaissance and potential strike drones. Strengthen air defense over Kharkiv Oblast, given sustained strikes and new KAB threats. CRITICALLY, immediately adjust air defense posture and resources to address the new groups of enemy UAVs entering southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast from TOT, heading north/northwest, particularly in light of the loss of the Su-27 aircraft in this direction. Allocate specific counter-UAV assets to the Sumy Oblast border due to new KAB launches. Prioritize protection of cultural and religious sites, such as the Holy Resurrection Cathedral in Sumy, with mobile air defense or EW assets, given recent RF targeting. Reinforce air defense for industrial facilities in Chernihiv Oblast, given the recent Shahed strike on an enterprise. Integrate newly developed "Project Octopus" interceptor drones into air defense strategy immediately upon production. Immediately assess and counter RF "Upyr" drone operations in Kharkiv Oblast with all available air defense and counter-drone assets, specifically targeting their tactics shown in the "Upyr" drone-on-drone video. Zelenskyy's call for coordinated Ukrainian-Polish air defense should be immediately acted upon by initiating technical liaison and information sharing protocols at the tactical level. UAF Air Force should analyze Colonelcassad's animated strike map to identify patterns, preferred RF weapon systems, and potential future targets for UAF air defense optimization. UAF should monitor Krasnodar airport re-opening for any military-logistical implications, though its primary impact is civilian.

   • Responsible: UAF Air Command, General Staff
   • Timeline: Immediate, ongoing
   • Justification: Protect against further exploitation of the Pokrovsk breakthrough by RF air assets and prevent irreversible damage to Ukraine's defense industry. Mitigate direct threat to civilian populations and critical infrastructure in border areas and the northern/central flanks. Counter RF strategic air threats. Protect cultural heritage. Protect vital industrial capabilities. Counter increasing air threats to Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Northern Kharkiv. Enhance regional air defense coordination with NATO allies. Mitigate impact of loss of air assets and personnel.

2. ENHANCED ISR AND COUNTER-FIRE OPERATIONS (Pokrovsk Axis, Sosnovka/Dnipropetrovsk, Velykomykhailivka, Kostiantynivka, Vovchansk, Siversk & South Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson & Naval Drone Infrastructure, Lyman Direction, Crimea HUMINT, Berestok, Zarechnoye): Maximize all available ISR assets (satellite, long-range drones, SIGINT/HUMINT) to identify RF second-echelon forces, artillery concentrations, and Command & Control nodes forming up to exploit the Pokrovsk breakthrough and to assess RF offensive capabilities in occupied DPR (where UAF/Western vehicles were lost). CRITICALLY, task immediate ISR to verify RF claims of "liberating" Sosnovka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and its strategic significance for encircling UAF in Velykomykhailivka. Assess implications for force deployment. Prioritize these targets for long-range precision fires (HIMARS, ATACMS, Storm Shadow/SCALP) to disrupt RF's ability to reinforce and expand the salient and to attrit RF forces in contested areas. Dedicate specific ISR to monitor the new RF mechanized offensive on the Kostiantynivka direction and identify RF unit composition and objectives for targeted counter-strikes. CRITICALLY, enhance ISR over the Vovchansk sector to verify RF claims of repelling UAF counterattacks and occupying technical buildings, and to identify any RF force build-up or tactical exploitation. Immediately task ISR to confirm the extent of RF control in Pereyizne (Siversk direction) and advances in Kirovsk (Zarichne) and Katerynivka, and to identify RF force dispositions for targeted counter-attacks. Increase ISR on the Lyman direction, specifically around Oleksandrivka, Zelenyi Hai, Torske, Shandryholove, Mirnoye-Malinovka, Druzhkivka, and CRITICALLY, Zarechnoye (following RF assault claims), to track RF movements and prepare pre-emptive strikes. Intensify ISR in the South Donetsk direction to monitor RF drone activity and counter UAF personnel and vehicle losses effectively. Enhance ISR in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to track RF ground movements and counter night rotation attempts, given recent RF claims and reported ATGM strikes, particularly around Sosnovka and Stepnohirsk, providing counter-fire support for UAF forces resisting RF aviation. Deploy mobile ISR assets to the Sumy border direction as requested by "Два майора" for RF assault groups. Increase ISR on the Zaporizhzhia front to monitor 58th Combined Arms Army and 291st Motor Rifle Regiment activity, and to track new enemy UAV groups entering southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast. CRITICALLY, task ISR to verify BDA of the alleged RF strike on a UAF "MBEC node" in Vilkove, Odesa Oblast, and enhance protection of remaining naval drone infrastructure. Increase ISR to detect RF mine-laying operations and develop immediate counter-mine measures for UAF ground forces. Immediately task ISR to verify RF claims of "fire control" over the Kherson-Mykolaiv highway and identify impacted UAF logistical routes for alternative planning. Investigate the new RF special UAV detachment (TASS) to understand its capabilities and deployment for future ISR and strike missions. Conduct immediate ISR on Novodonetske and Kramatorsk to assess BDA from recent shelling and drone attacks. Increase ISR to detect and counter RF 'Molniya' drone operations against UAF convoys/vehicles. Conduct detailed ISR in Filiya to assess the UAF "mopping-up" operation and RF disposition. Analyze the RF reconnaissance activities by sniper/machine gunner teams in forest environments (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА) to understand their operational patterns and identify potential target areas. CRITICALLY, leverage the "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" report of an FSB detention in Crimea to identify the compromised networks and gather further intelligence on RF military and air defense assets from within occupied territories. Assess the BDA of the MoD Russia report of a Strela-10 SAM system downing a Shark UAV in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction to understand its impact on UAF ISR capabilities. CRITICALLY, assess the impact of RF assault groups using the "Potok" ("Kursk pipe") method for infiltration on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction and develop immediate counter-infiltration strategies, including subterranean ISR and obstacle placement. Conduct immediate BDA for the RF "Lancet" counter-battery strike in South-Donetsk (Воин DV) and adjust UAF artillery defensive posture accordingly. Exploit intelligence gained from the UAF "Baba-Yaga" drone strike against RF "flag-bearers" on the Lyman direction (Оперативний ЗСУ) for improved targeting and tactics. Conduct immediate ISR to verify the extent of civilian infrastructure damage, including the identified church, in Krasnoarmeysk (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) for BDA and to inform IO. Immediately task ISR to verify the reported missile attack on RF artillery depots in Sonyachna Dolyna, Crimea (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС), and assess its BDA and impact on RF logistics. Prioritize follow-up targeting if verified. Assess the BDA of Colonelcassad's FPV drone strikes by "CENTER" Grouping of Forces against UAF equipment and personnel and adjust UAF force protection accordingly. Conduct immediate ISR in the Siversk-Fedorivka area to understand the tactical situation following the destruction of the RF MT-LB (Сливочный каприз) and assess opportunities for UAF exploitation. Task ISR to monitor the "Boby" battalion's activities (WarGonzo) to gain insights into RF urban combat tactics. UAF G2 should immediately brief US Special Representative Keith Kellogg on current ISR findings related to RF intentions and capabilities. Immediately task ISR to verify the claim by Народная милиция ДНР (238 Brigade) to have destroyed a UAF UAV control post in Berestok and assess its impact on UAF drone operations in the area. Prioritize ISR to identify areas of significant destruction, such as Stepnohirsk, for BDA and potential UAF counter-offensives. Analyze the effectiveness of UAF "waiting drones" as shown by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС to enhance future drone tactics. Utilize the MoD Russia "Terminator" training video to analyze RF armored vehicle tactics, training protocols, and potential future deployments.

   • Responsible: UAF G2, UAF G3 (Operations)
   • Timeline: Immediate, ongoing
   • Justification: Prevent RF from consolidating gains and achieving operational depth on the most critical ground axes and reduce RF combat power. Counter new RF advances and prevent unexpected breakthroughs. Protect vital naval drone capabilities. Ensure force protection against mine warfare. Counter RF interdiction efforts. Address emerging RF drone capabilities. Mitigate losses of air assets and personnel.

3. FORTIFICATION AND DEFENSIVE PREPARATIONS (Northern Border, Sumy/Kharkiv/Chernihiv, Kostiantynivka, Stepnohirsk): Given the confirmed presence and operations of RF "Anvar" special forces in the Kharkiv/Chernihiv buffer zones, the drone strikes on Sumy (including the educational institution and Holy Resurrection Cathedral), and new UAV activity near Novhorod-Siverskyi, Berezna, and Ponornytsia, UAF should immediately enhance defensive preparations along the entire northern border. This includes accelerating fortification construction, increasing ISR patrols (both aerial and ground-based) to detect infiltration, and establishing pre-planned artillery and drone engagement zones. Reinforce force protection measures for UAF temporary deployment points and personnel concentrations in Sumy Oblast, based on recent RF "Molniya-2" drone strike claims and new KAB launches in the region. Monitor activities of "Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН "Ахмат" in forested areas, indicating similar specialized unit operations. Strengthen defensive positions in the South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction, particularly around Vovchansk, Ambarne, and Odradne, given persistent RF clashes. Reinforce defensive positions and anti-drone measures in Kramatorsk due to recent attacks. Immediately strengthen defensive lines and counter-offensive capabilities on the Kostiantynivka direction following the new RF mechanized offensive reported by STERNENKO. Strengthen defensive lines and provide necessary counter-fire support to UAF forces in Stepnohirsk, given the reported heavy combat and destruction.

   • Responsible: UAF Northern Operational Command, Engineer Corps
   • Timeline: Next 48-72 hours
   • Justification: Pre-empt potential localized RF ground incursions or larger-scale probing attacks designed to fix UAF forces away from the Donbas. Protect civilian areas and critical infrastructure. Prevent further RF advances on the Kostiantynivka axis.

4. NATO LIAISON AND ROE CLARIFICATION (Polish/Latvian/Lithuanian Airspace & Patriot Request, UK/France Fighter Offer, Slovakian FM, US-Belarus Ties): Immediately task senior UAF liaison officers to engage with NATO Allied Air Command and Polish/Latvian/Lithuanian Armed Forces to deconflict airspace, establish clear and coordinated Rules of Engagement (ROE) for future RF incursions into Polish, Latvian, and Lithuanian airspace, and formalize real-time intelligence sharing protocols. Proactively offer UAF expertise and lessons learned in countering Shahed UAVs to assist Polish/NATO forces. Polish FM Sikorski's statement on deliberate drone targeting and EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas's condemnation further underscore the urgency for this coordinated response. The confirmed Belarusian warning to Poland adds another layer of complexity requiring clarification and coordination. Actively support Poland's urgent request for Patriot systems and counter-drone technologies from NATO allies, providing data on Shahed effectiveness and the need for robust layered air defense. Engage with Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania to understand the implications of their new flight restrictions and border closures on UAF cross-border operations and coordinate mitigation strategies. Immediately coordinate with NATO and Polish/Latvian/Lithuanian authorities regarding Poland's indefinite border closure with Belarus and Latvia/Lithuania's airspace closure, assessing its implications for regional security and potential for further hybrid escalations by RF. CRITICALLY, establish immediate liaison to understand the operational implications of Poland's complete closure of all border crossings with Belarus from 12 SEP 25, and coordinate for potential humanitarian and logistical impacts. Assess with NATO the implications of the US lifting sanctions on Belavia and planning to return the US embassy to Minsk, for geopolitical alignment and regional security. Maintain close liaison with the Netherlands MFA following their summoning of the Russian ambassador to monitor the diplomatic fallout and coordinate messaging. Leverage the Swedish 20th military aid package to Ukraine as a sign of continued and growing international support, and continue to push for further aid. Address the diplomatic friction with Hungary, highlighted by the Hungarian FM's accusations against Kyiv (РБК-Україна, Операция Z), through diplomatic channels to prevent further destabilization of international support. Immediately establish liaison with UK and France to understand the specifics of their Eurofighter and Rafale fighter deployment offers to Poland and how UAF can integrate with these capabilities or benefit from the increased NATO air presence. CRITICALLY, engage with Slovakian counterparts to understand and counter the "cynical statement" made by their Foreign Minister regarding drones in Poland (РБК-Україна), ensuring this does not undermine broader EU/NATO unity.

   • Responsible: UAF General Staff (International Cooperation Directorate), UAF Air Command
   • Timeline: Immediate, ongoing
   • Justification: Ensure a unified and effective response to RF hybrid aggression against NATO's eastern flank and leverage international support for critical air defense assets. Address the rapidly escalating situation on the Polish-Belarusian/Latvian/Lithuanian border. Counter diplomatic fragmentation.

5. ADAPTIVE STRATCOM AND COUNTER-DISINFORMATION (Western Audiences & POW Narratives, Energy Security, Hybrid Warfare, Hungarian/Slovakian Relations, Internal RF Dissent): Task UAF STRATCOM and PSYOP elements to rapidly develop and disseminate factual, evidence-based counter-narratives to RF's exploitation of the Polish drone incursions, Zelenskyy's statements, Lavrov's comments, and other Western internal events. Focus on highlighting RF's manipulative intent, providing verified information, and redirecting attention back to RF aggression in Ukraine. Work with allied information operations centers to amplify these messages. CRITICALLY, immediately counter RF IO pushing narratives that Zelenskyy is "making excuses" for Polish drones (Операция Z) and Lavrov's statements blaming the US for arming Ukraine (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition). Counter the alleged detention of Ukrainian citizens in Georgia for hexogen smuggling (Военкор Котенок) with a factual debunking or clarification of any UAF involvement. Proactively prepare counter-narratives and expose potential coercion or manipulation in RF's dissemination of POW testimonies and disillusioned mercenary accounts. Counter RF narratives on UAF losses of Western-supplied equipment by highlighting RF losses and overall RF attrition. Leverage the "ATESH" sabotage operation in Tula and the successful HUR strike on the Black Sea Fleet vessel as powerful IO victories. URGENTLY counter the TASS/Miroshnik/Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claim regarding Ukraine's mobilization of 15-year-olds with clear, factual information about Ukrainian mobilization laws and a strong condemnation of RF's egregious disinformation. Leverage GSU's enemy loss figures and "dumpling" messages for morale and to counter RF narratives. Proactively counter RF claims of UAF strikes on civilian infrastructure in Donetsk and Horlivka and Vasylivka school buses by presenting evidence of RF targeting of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. Address the TASS report on a 5-year-old on "Myrotvorets" with a factual debunking. Counter the "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" narrative on Baltic involvement in drone attacks and the alleged strike on a UAF "MBEC node" in Vilkove. Prepare to counter RF narratives from "Два майора" regarding "real reasons" for drones "falling" in Poland, preemptively exposing planned disinformation, and address Kotsnews's skepticism. Immediately counter "Операция Z" claims of reduced payments to deceased soldiers' families. Also, counter "Два майора"'s immediate accusation of UAF attacking civilians as "terrorists." Counter TASS's IO regarding NATO F-35 costs and French "voluntary mobilization." Counter RF internal IO promoting elections and criticizing EU leaders. CRITICALLY, develop strong counter-narratives and educational programs to combat RF's explicit dehumanization of Ukrainians and militarization of Russian youth. Counter RF IO narratives of Ukraine's energy vulnerabilities. Leverage ASTRA's report on photos of deceased war participants hung near a landfill, and МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники's video on neglected graves, to undermine RF morale and legitimacy, highlighting RF's disrespect for its own fallen soldiers. Leverage the incident involving intoxicated military personnel in Rivne Oblast to demonstrate UAF's commitment to accountability and contrast with RF lack of discipline. Amplify reports from "Офіс Генерального прокурора" on war crime witness protection and drug busts to showcase UAF's commitment to justice and internal stability. Counter TASS claims of European football federations opposing sanctions, with evidence of unified support. Use Zelenskyy's call for sanctions as a unified IO message. Counter RF IO attempting to portray international support with quotes from Pierre de Gaulle (TASS). Leverage SBU cases against UOC (MP) priests to highlight RF influence operations. Actively monitor and expose RF attempts to create false narratives about the Charlie Kirk murder. Directly counter RF narratives stemming from the "new manual" (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) blaming UAF for Polish drone incursions, with clear evidence and condemnation. Immediately counter RF IO mocking NATO's defense efforts and costs. Highlight the effectiveness of international sanctions by amplifying reports of Russia's declining oil revenues. Use internal RF IO (e.g., Военкор Котенок's criticism of Pugacheva) to identify and potentially exploit internal dissent or friction within RF. CRITICALLY, leverage the UAF missile strike on RF artillery depots in Sonyachna Dolyna, Crimea (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) as a powerful IO victory. Immediately counter the new, highly inflammatory Mash на Донбассе claims of "Small children massively added to the 'Myrotvorets' database." UAF STRATCOM must immediately counter Colonelcassad's attempt to debunk the GUR strike on the Black Sea Fleet vessel as a "fake." UAF STRATCOM should strategically leverage the TASS report on Lukashenko's meeting with Trump's special envoy to highlight Belarus's continued complicity and RF's attempts at diplomatic manipulation. UAF STRATCOM should be prepared to counter any RF IO leveraging the European Court's decision on Hungary's nuclear reactors to sow disunity within the EU. UAF STRATCOM should analyze and counter the messaging from АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА regarding UAF "reactive drones" to prevent RF from justifying escalation or portraying UAF as an advanced aggressor. UAF STRATCOM must immediately contextualize and counter RF narratives (Операція Z, Alex Parker Returns, TASS, AV БогомаZ) of renewed US-Belarusian diplomatic ties as an RF attempt to influence US policy and divert attention from the conflict, not a sign of genuine peace, especially in light of RF's denial of Polish drone incursions. Leverage the reported defection of the Russian soldier (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) as an IO opportunity to highlight RF morale issues and encourage further defections. Leverage Zelenskyy's statement comparing Polish drone attacks to Crimea annexation (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) to reinforce the severity of RF aggression. Immediately counter Operatsiya Z's promotion of Hungarian FM Szijjártó's statements on Zakarpattia Hungarians and EU membership conditions, framing it as an attempt to undermine Ukrainian sovereignty and EU unity. Leverage the continued strong support from Sweden ($836M package, $4.276B annual commitments) to counter narratives of dwindling Western aid. Counter RF internal IO, such as the targeting of Dmitry Bykov and Alla Pugacheva, as signs of a repressive regime. Counter Басурин о главном's use of a child in propaganda to expose RF's exploitation of children. Leverage the transparent reporting of the death of Major Oleksandr Borovyk to contrast with RF's lack of transparency regarding military losses. Counter the "cynical statement" from the Slovakian Foreign Minister to prevent diplomatic erosion. Counter the narratives pushed by RF media regarding Georgian political arrests and the Arestovych/Sobchak interview, framing them as attempts to distract and sow discord.

   • Responsible: UAF STRATCOM, Ministry of Defense Information Policy, UAF G2
   • Timeline: Immediate, ongoing (CRITICAL: Medvedev statement, 15-year-old mobilization claim, and Donetsk/Horlivka civilian strike claims, Vasylivka school bus claims, TASS/Miroshnik children targeting claims, Holy Resurrection Cathedral strike, Kramatorsk drone attacks, Kotsnews disinformation, claims of energy vulnerability, Novodonetske shelling, neglected graves, Rivne incident, Mash на Донбассе "Myrotvorets" claims, and Colonelcassad "fake" claims must be verified and countered immediately)
   • Justification: Mitigate RF's efforts to sow discord within Western alliances, undermine support for Ukraine, and exploit sensitive information for psychological warfare. Maintain UAF credibility and counter demoralization efforts.

6. IMMEDIATE ASSESSMENT OF ROSGVARDIA'S NEW CAPABILITIES AND "SWARM DRONE" & LONG-RANGE STEALTH DRONE THREATS AND UAV MAINTENANCE/MANPOWER: Task UAF G2 and relevant technical intelligence elements to immediately analyze the capabilities, deployment timelines, and potential impact of "swarm drone" tactics, as highlighted by Colonelcassad's sharing of Chinese military exercises, and the newly reported Chinese PD-2900 stealth kamikaze drone. CRITICALLY, assess the implications of Rosgvardia being armed with tank and anti-tank guns, self-propelled artillery, and MLRS (TASS), and their extensive combat missions. Identify specific Rosgvardia units deployed to the front, their areas of operation, and their impact on RF combat power and tactics. CRITICALLY, assess Syrskyi's statement on RF copying UAF interceptor drones to understand the implications for future RF drone capabilities and UAF counter-drone strategies. Initiate rapid development of counter-measures, doctrine, and training for UAF forces against these emerging threats, focusing on both massed attacks and long-range, stealthy penetration. Additionally, assess the dual-use potential of the newly observed MCHS ZALA ZARYA UAVs with AI, and prepare for potential military adaptation by RF. Concurrently, assess the full scope of UAF UAV repair and maintenance requirements, identify critical skill gaps (e.g., as highlighted by 46th Airmobile Brigade's recruitment and STERNENKO's new messages regarding drone shortages), and allocate resources for accelerated training programs and procurement of necessary parts to maintain UAF drone superiority. Review the training activities of new recruits in units like the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" to identify best practices for rapid integration and combat readiness, and apply these lessons learned across UAF. Address the fundraising needs of units like the "Rubizh" National Guard Brigade for equipment restoration. CRITICALLY, conduct a rapid assessment of manpower shortfalls in frontline units like the 44th Separate Mechanized Brigade, as reported by "РБК-Україна," and prioritize strategies for rapid force generation, recruitment, and rotation to alleviate critical pressure points. Ensure efficient implementation of remote VLC for soldiers abroad to maximize personnel availability. Furthermore, implement stronger anti-corruption measures within the MoD and relevant administrative bodies to prevent resource leakage, as highlighted by the recent bribery arrest. Investigate the new RF special UAV detachment (TASS) to understand its capabilities and deployment for future ISR and strike missions, and develop specific countermeasures. Integrate the intelligence from Alex Parker Returns' video regarding the 'Molniya' drone strike into counter-drone strategies and training. Prioritize the joint UK-Ukraine production of "Project Octopus" interceptor drones, ensuring rapid scaling and integration into UAF air defense systems. Assess RF helicopter deployment patterns from "Fighterbomber" video for tactical aviation counter-measures. Address STERNENKO's new message regarding "shortage of Rusoriz" to understand current weapon requirements and procurement priorities. CRITICALLY, analyze RF "Upyr" drone capabilities and deployment patterns (Старше Эдды, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Kotsnews) to develop specific counter-drone tactics. Leverage President Zelenskyy's statements (РБК-Україна) on joint production of interceptor drones with Europe to galvanize support and accelerate development. Immediately assess the impact and capabilities of the "modernized anti-drone systems" reportedly supplied by Russian holding Rosele (Rostec), as claimed by Басурин о главном, and develop counter-counter-drone measures. Analyze the capabilities of "Terminator" tank support fighting vehicles (MoD Russia) to develop appropriate counter-tactics for combined arms engagements.

   • Responsible: UAF G2 (Technical Intelligence), UAF Air Command, UAF Doctrine & Training Command, UAF Logistics Command, UAF Personnel Command, UAF Internal Security/Anti-Corruption Directorate
   • Timeline: Next 72 hours (initial assessment and conceptual counter-measures/resource allocation)
   • Justification: Prepare UAF for potential new and highly challenging forms of RF drone warfare, preventing a significant tactical or operational surprise and mitigating deep strike capabilities. Ensure sustained UAF drone operational readiness against increasing RF capabilities and efficient force generation and sustainment. Combat internal vulnerabilities.

//END REPORT//