Situation Report

SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - 101800Z SEP 25 (UPDATE 24)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (Confidence: HIGH)

RF forces continue a concentrated ground offensive on the Pokrovsk axis, with confirmed RF advances in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast ('Khoroshe', Sosnivka, Voronne) and Donetsk Oblast (Zvirove, Myrnohrad approaches, Sofiyivka). RF forces have broken through Ukrainian defenses near Chynyshyn, southeast of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), and assault groups have entered Muravka, west of Pokrovsk, actively exploiting the breakthrough. RF sources also claim to be taking Dnipropetrovsk's Novopavlovka in a pincer movement. Intense combat is also reported near Krasny Liman, DPR, and the RF 103rd Regiment is advancing towards Konstantinovka. New RF ground activity is reported on the Siverske direction, with Basurin (RF) claiming confident RF advances. RF forces have also advanced in the Kremensky forests, LPR, taking control of approximately 3 km of the administrative border. Rybar provides a cartographic overview (video) showing Russian advances in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in late August/September, including the capture of Novoselivka, and subsequent UAF counterattacks aimed at liberating occupied territories such as Malievka and Kamyishevakha. DeepState provides a map overlay showing a stable situation in Serebryansky forestry, indicating UAF defensive success. RF milbloggers also indicate activity on the Druzhkovka direction. RF military figures, as reported by TASS, emphasize the increased strategic reliance on UAVs for achieving control over areas like the Serebryansky forestry, indicating continued focus on this area. TASS reports Alaudinov (RF military figure) calculates that RF forces will 100% liberate LPR from UAF in the near future, aligning with aggressive RF claims. TASS reports "Vostok" Group destroyed an M119 howitzer near Novogrigorovka. RF MOD claims destruction of a UAF self-propelled artillery system (2S1 Gvozdika) and a M113 APC on the Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka direction. TASS also claims RF forces have taken control of 1.5 km of a supply route in Kupyansk. GSU reports indicate a significant concentration of RF forces on the Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka, and Shakhtarske directions. On the Kupiansk direction, UAF repelled 10 RF attacks; on Lyman, 15 attacks; on Bakhmut, 20 attacks; on Avdiivka, 15 attacks; on Marinka, 18 attacks; on Shakhtarske, 10 attacks. On the Zaporizhzhia direction, 12 RF attacks were repelled. On the Kherson direction, 10 RF attacks were repelled. The GSU highlights 130 combat engagements over the past 24 hours, indicating a high tempo across multiple axes. The GSU also reports RF is attempting to advance near Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast. WarGonzo, an RF milblogger, provides a "Frontline Summary" for the morning of 10.09.25, including tactical maps for the Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv fronts, indicating continued RF focus on these areas. TASS reports RF forces encircled a UAF platoon strongpoint south of Kolodezi, DPR, destroying 25 UAF soldiers after they refused to surrender. Воин DV reports drone operators of the 35th Army Group "Vostok" are actively hunting UAF personnel in their area of responsibility, indicating a tactical focus on attrition. TASS reports Pushilin states RF forces are engaged in high-rise building combat in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF) reports that RF forces have taken control of 1.5 km of a UAF supply route in Kupyansk. Народная милиция ДНР (RF) provides video claiming the destruction of UAF positions and personnel deployment points (PVD) in the Rusin Yar area. GSU reports intensified clashes on the Pokrovsk direction near Volodymyrivka, Nove Shakhove, Zapovidne, Myrolubivka, Novoekonomichne, Lysivka, Shevchenko, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne and towards Vilne, Rodynske, Promin, Sukhyi Yar, Pokrovsk, Molodetske. This confirms broad RF pressure and advances towards critical objectives on the Pokrovsk axis. GSU reports continued clashes on the Novopavlivka direction near Maliyivka, Komyshuvakha, Novomykolayivka, Olhivka and towards Filiya, Ivanivka, Andriyivka-Klevtsove, Sichneve, Ternove, Novoivanivka. GSU reports ongoing clashes on the Lyman direction near Novomykhaylivka, Karpivka, Serednye, Shandryholove, Kolodyazi, Zarichne and Torske. GSU reports clashes on the Sieversk direction near Yampil, Dronivka, Vyyimka, Pazeno. GSU reports clashes on the Kramatorsk direction near Stupochky. GSU reports clashes on the Toretsk direction near Katerynivka, Yablunivka, Poltavka and towards Oleksandro-Shultyne, Pleschiyivka. GSU reports aviation airstrikes at Olhivka of Kherson region. GSU reports continued clashes near Vovchansk on the South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction. GSU reports continued clashes near Stepova Novoselivka and towards Kupyansk, Petropavlivka, Pischane on the Kupyansk direction. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports that RF DRG (sabotage and reconnaissance groups) have been detected and eliminated in the Dobropillia area. STERNENKO (UAF) video shows FPV drone attacks on RF infantry fighting vehicle (BMP) and dismounted personnel in a wooded area on the Pokrovsk direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF) reports on a RF infantry group attempting to advance through a forest strip in Sumy Oblast, being detected and engaged by UAF drones and remote mining. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports that Kramatorsk is under shelling again. RBC-Ukraine reports RF drones covered Kramatorsk's central square, residential areas, and a market, with photos confirming extensive damage. MoD Russia releases a brief on "special military operation progress" for 10 SEP 25, implying continued ground operations.

Deep strikes persist on Ukrainian energy, industrial, and civilian infrastructure. Confirmed damage to the Sumy Oblast Administration (OVA) building, the Ukrainian Government Headquarters in Kyiv, the Sokil ice arena in Kyiv, and the Cabinet of Ministers building in Kyiv (Iskander-K cruise missile). A strike on Dobropillia in Donetsk Oblast has caused significant destruction to a multi-story residential building. The death toll from the Russian aviation bomb strike on Yarova, Donetsk Oblast, has risen to 24 with 19 injured. RBC-Ukraine now reports the death toll has risen to 25 in Yarova, Donetsk Oblast. UAF maintains a defensive posture, conducts counter-drone operations, and executes deep strikes into RF territory (Ilsky Oil Refinery, Druzhba oil pipeline, Rosneft gas station in Klimovo, Krasnodar Krai refinery, NPS "Vtorovo" in Vladimir Oblast, Penza gas pipelines, Saratov Oblast oil pipeline, Belgorod Oblast oil depot, Transneft oil pumping station in Vladimir Oblast), and on occupied Donetsk and Makeevka. Damage to the Kremenchuk bridge has been confirmed; however, automotive traffic on the Kryukiv bridge has reportedly been restored. UAF Falcon Squad has reportedly damaged an RF TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" heavy flamethrower system on the Vovchansk axis. UAF reports destruction of an RF BM-27 "Uragan" MLRS by an FPV drone 47 km from the frontline. UAF has captured an RF soldier in the Serebryansk forest area. TASS reports UAF mass drone attacks on Donetsk and Makeevka, injuring civilians. RF tactical aviation launches KABs on Sumy Oblast and on Donetsk region, including northern Kharkiv Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast is partially de-energized, with causes being investigated. RF reconnaissance UAV reported in Black Sea heading towards Odesa. RF sources continue to claim UAF strikes on civilian infrastructure in Donetsk and Makeevka, attributing damage to Storm Shadow, HIMARS, and UAVs. RF milbloggers are reporting shelling in Steppnohorsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Colonelcassad reports a video of an aviation strike on a UAF strongpoint near Myropillia, Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad also reports an elderly woman's testimony alleging a UAF drone attack on her home on 17 SEP, causing injury and damage, though the location is unconfirmed, this is likely part of RF IO efforts. TASS reports on a massive fire in Vinnytsia following a missile attack, with video evidence of a large smoke plume. Vinnytsia OVA confirms hits on civilian industrial objects. RBC-Ukraine now reports 31 people injured, including three children in Vinnytsia. RBC-Ukraine reports that a power line was damaged in Cherkasy Oblast as a result of a night attack. New reports indicate enemy strikes have destroyed a sewing factory and damaged a gas station and vehicles in Khmelnytskyi district, with three people injured (OVA, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна). One person has been killed and one injured in a combined enemy strike on Zhytomyr Oblast (OVA, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA). RBC-Ukraine confirms a video showing destruction in Vinnytsia with one injured, highlighting significant damage to an industrial building and over 30 residential homes. One enemy drone was shot down over Chernivtsi Oblast (OVA). RBC-Ukraine reports a fire in Volyn Oblast due to a massive drone attack. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, ASTRA, and Colonelcassad report UAF drone attacks on Belgorod, damaging the regional government building. No casualties reported. Операция Z (Voenkor Russkoy Vesny) provides photos and videos of a "massive missile-drone attack on Ukraine," depicting large plumes of smoke over urban/industrial areas, confirming ongoing significant damage in multiple locations (e.g., Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr). RBC-Ukraine reports the number of injured in Zhytomyr Oblast has risen to 5. Mash na Donbasse (RF) provides video of damage to a multi-story building on OTVaZhNYKH street in Donetsk from alleged UAF shelling, showing extensive structural damage and damaged civilian vehicles. Air Force of Ukraine reports KABs are active on the Donetsk direction. Oleg Synehubov reports 5 people injured in Kindrashivka community, Kharkiv Oblast, due to enemy shelling. TASS reports schools in Belgorod and Belgorod district have moved to remote learning due to UAF attacks. ASTRA reports Polish Interior Ministry announced the discovery of seven drones and fragments of one missile of unknown origin. RF's Операция Z (Voenkor Russkoy Vesny) reports on UAF terrorist attacks on Belgorod causing civilian injuries, and schools/colleges moving to remote learning. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports intensive shelling of Belgorod and Belgorod region.

UAV activity continues to be significant. RF UAVs reported in Kyiv Oblast (Obukhivskyi, Brovarskyi, Boryspilskyi districts), northern Chernihiv Oblast (Корюківський та Чернігівський райони), kursing southwest, with new strike UAV threats in Lutsk, and significant concentrations in central, western, and northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving southwest. Trypilska TPP is under drone attack, causing power outages. A downed Shahed is reported over Odesa. UAF Air Force reports 60 of 84 RF UAVs were shot down/suppressed overnight. UAF Air Force reports hostile reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy (Kupianskyi district) and Kharkiv oblast, with assets engaged for their shootdown. PVO of the 3rd Assault Brigade shot down 609 UAVs in August, becoming top-1 among linear units of Defense Forces. RF sources (AV БогомаZ, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ASTRA) claim the destruction of 122 or 21 (Bryansk Oblast only) enemy UAVs overnight. STERNENKO (UAF) claims approximately 20 Shaheds were shot down by interceptor drones UAF collected funds for. Зеленский / Official reports a massive overnight attack by RF involving "about 415 drones of various types and over 40 cruise and ballistic missiles" across 15 oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Оперативний ЗСУ report 413 of 458 enemy targets were shot down/suppressed: 386 enemy UAVs and 27 cruise/guided aerial missiles (Kh-101, Kalibr, Kh-59/69).

LATEST INTEL: RF is employing new groups of Shahed UAVs (Geraniums) over Vinnytsia Oblast, with a group heading towards Klembyvka. Another new group of UAVs is reported from Zhytomyr Oblast to Vinnytsia Oblast, heading towards Turbiv. UAVs are also active in central Kharkiv Oblast and western Cherkasy Oblast, moving west. A new group of 4+ Shahed UAVs has been detected in the Black Sea, heading towards the southern Odesa region, specifically Vilkove (+5 new from the sea heading to Vilkove reported). UAF Air Force confirms UAVs heading towards Vilkove. UAF Air Force reports a threat of strike UAVs over Ternopil Oblast. Russian sources claim UAF drone strikes on Matveevo-Kurgansky special boarding school in Rostov Oblast, with two staff injured. Polish F-16s are reported to have been scrambled due to RF "Shahed" (Geranium) drone activity entering Polish airspace towards Zamosc. UAF sources confirm Polish forces shot down 2x UAVs over Polish territory. Polish Rzeszów airport is closed due to "unplanned military activity." RF milbloggers are reporting a "Geranium" flying towards Rzeszów, a key logistics hub for Western arms to Ukraine. The Operational Command of the Polish Armed Forces (Dowództwo Operacyjne RSZ) has issued a warning regarding further massive Russian strikes on Ukrainian territory overnight (09-10 SEP 25). Additionally, Polish airspace over Lublin Airport (EPLB) has now been closed, suggesting an expansion of potential RF drone activity or a heightened state of alert in Eastern Poland. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports "Shaheds" heading towards Warsaw via Belarus. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports 3 more drones entering Zhytomyr Oblast. UAF Air Force reports strike UAV threats in Lvivskyi district, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Brovary, Chernivtsi Oblast, and Lviv. Mayor Sadovyi confirms an enemy drone heading towards Lviv city. Operatsiya Z and Voenkor Russkoy Vesny claim approximately 95 Russian UAVs over Ukraine and Poland. RF milbloggers (НгП раZVедка) are openly advocating for attacks on Kyiv and Lviv, and express frustration about not being involved in "kicking the Poles," implying a desire for direct action against Poland and a retaliatory stance against Ukraine. UAF Air Force reports strike UAV threats for Sumy, Vinnytsia, Kyiv, and Zhytomyr Oblasts. RF milbloggers (НгП раZVедка) are reporting that Ukrainians on their own resources are demanding that air defense forces not shoot down drones flying towards the Polish border, implying that Poles should deal with it themselves. Operatsiya Z is showing video and photo evidence of a "massive missile-drone attack on Ukraine," depicting large plumes of smoke over urban/industrial areas, confirming ongoing significant damage in multiple locations (e.g., Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr). TASS reports that Trump is dissatisfied with Israel's attack on Hamas leadership in Qatar, and states he may call Putin this week or next. Canada has sent its first ACSV (Armoured Combat Support Vehicle) to Ukraine. Latest UAF Air Force updates confirm active UAV threats over the center of Cherkasy Oblast (heading SW towards Kalynopil), northern Ternopil Oblast (heading SW), around Kyiv, and specifically threatening Lutsk and Lviv. Explosions are reported in Kyiv and Lviv, indicating active air defense engagement. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports 2 drones remaining for Lviv. Colonelcassad reports footage of "Anvar" special forces destroying UAF vehicles in the border zone, likely Sumy/Chernihiv. ASTRA reports RF UAVs have invaded Polish airspace, leading to the closure of Rzeszów, Lublin, and Warsaw airports. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports 2 more UAVs have left Volyn Oblast and entered Poland. STERNENKO confirms 1 Shahed has flown into Poland. TASS reports temporary restrictions at Nizhny Novgorod airport. UAF Air Force reports guided aerial bomb launches on Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports "minus" on drones over Lviv. Nikolaevsky Vanek also reports 2 drones from Ternopil Oblast are flying towards Kalush. UAF Air Force reports UAVs in Cherkasy district moving south, and a threat of strike UAVs in Vinnytsia. Operatsiya Z reports 2 more UAVs have entered Polish territory. UAF Air Force reports strike UAV threats in Stryi and Drohobych districts of Lviv Oblast. UAF Air Force also reports strike UAV threats for Vinnytsia city. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports one drone flying towards Vyshhorod/Kyiv. UAF Air Force reports strike UAV threats for Zhytomyr city and an incoming strike UAV from the eastern direction towards Vinnytsia. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports "minus" on drones towards Kalush, Kyiv, and Vinnytsia. UAF Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the southeastern direction and Synelnykivskyi district. RBK-Ukraina reports a US reaction calling Russian drone penetration into Poland an "act of war," and initial details from Poland indicating three Voivodeships are under threat. Rybar is actively reporting on drones again in Poland. UAF Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by RF tactical aviation on eastern Kharkiv Oblast. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports remaining drone targets, specifically towards Kyiv. UAF Air Force confirms strike UAV threat for Bila Tserkva. RF (TASS) reports the lifting of restrictions at Sochi airport. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports cruise missiles detected heading towards/through Akhtyrka, Sumy Oblast, then towards/through Hadyach, Poltava Oblast. UAF Air Force confirms high-speed targets in Sumy Oblast heading west towards Akhtyrka and then to Poltava Oblast, towards Hadyach. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports more missiles in Kharkiv Oblast, heading towards Zlatopil. UAF Air Force confirms another high-speed target in Sumy Oblast on the same route. RBK-Ukraina reports a cruise missile moving towards Balakliia, Kharkiv Oblast. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports a pair of missiles in Kharkiv Oblast moving towards Lozova/Pavlohrad. UAF Air Force reports a cruise missile in Sumy Oblast moving towards Chupakhivka, southwest direction. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports new missiles moving towards Snihurivka. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports approximately 20 missiles in Ukrainian airspace. Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) reports a missile threat. UAF Air Force reports a group of cruise missiles in southern Sumy Oblast and northern Poltava Oblast, heading southwest towards Cherkasy Oblast. UAF Air Force reports missiles heading towards Kyiv Oblast, specifically Myronivka. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports over 20 missiles in Ukrainian airspace. UAF Air Force reports cruise missiles in Chernihiv Oblast, heading south towards Kyiv Oblast. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports the main missile trajectory is across Kyiv and Cherkasy Oblasts towards Vinnytsia Oblast, with a pair from Odesa Oblast also heading to Vinnytsia Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports approximately 40 missiles in Ukrainian airspace. UAF Air Force reports cruise missiles in Odesa Oblast, heading towards southern Vinnytsia Oblast. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports one drone north of Lviv, likely heading to the city. UAF Air Force reports missiles from Chernihiv Oblast crossing into northern Kyiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports missiles heading towards Vinnytsia Oblast. Andriy Yermak, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, confirms Russia has launched many missiles and drone attacks are ongoing. UAF Air Force reports cruise missiles in northern Kyiv Oblast, heading southwest. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports the first missiles in northern Vinnytsia Oblast, heading west. UAF Air Force reports cruise missiles in northern and southern Vinnytsia Oblast, heading west. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports 2-3 missiles from Chernihiv Oblast heading towards/through Brovary/Kyiv/Boryspil. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photos captioned "Cruise missiles moving." LATEST UPDATES: Николаевский Ванёк reports one missile has diverted towards Obukhiv/Ukrainka. Air Force of Ukraine reports a strike UAV from the eastern direction towards Vinnytsia, and a cruise missile in eastern Zhytomyr Oblast heading south, then another towards Vinnytsia city and Zhytomyr. Николаевский Ванёк reports missiles near Khmilnyk have changed course to southwest. Николаевский Ванёк reports one missile passed Ukrainka towards Vasylkiv. Николаевский Ванёк reports missiles in southern Khmelnytskyi Oblast are continuing west and southwest towards Ternopil Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк reports a pair of missiles towards Kalynivka/Vinnytsia and another pair towards Zhytomyr. Polish PM confirms military action taken against targets for airspace violations. Air Force of Ukraine reports cruise missiles in eastern Khmelnytskyi Oblast heading west, and missiles in eastern Zhytomyr Oblast heading west towards Zhytomyr. Николаевский Ванёк reports 4 missiles remaining for Zhytomyr. Air Force of Ukraine reports cruise missiles in southern Khmelnytskyi Oblast heading west towards Ternopil Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк reports missiles are passing south of Khmelnytskyi Oblast towards Ternopil Oblast. Air Force of Ukraine reports cruise missiles in eastern Zhytomyr Oblast heading west towards Zhytomyr. Николаевский Ванёк reports 4 missiles still heading for Zhytomyr. Explosions reported in Vinnytsia by local media. Николаевский Ванёк reports two drones heading to Lutsk, and remaining cruise missiles in central Khmelnytskyi Oblast moving southwest. Air Force of Ukraine reports cruise missiles in Ternopil Oblast heading west towards Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк reports main missile group from Ternopil Oblast is flying towards Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк reports one missile from Vinnytsia Oblast turned towards Berdychiv, likely heading further to Zhytomyr. Николаевский Ванёк reports main missile group heading towards Burshyn. Air Force of Ukraine reports cruise missiles in northern Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast heading west. Николаевский Ванёк reports one drone is leaving Lviv Oblast and flying towards Kalush from the north, and one missile heading to Vinnytsia. Air Force of Ukraine reports Vinnytsia city in shelters. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports most missiles passed Burshyn towards Stryi/Drohobych. Nikolaevsky Vanek reports missiles towards Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr have been intercepted ("minus"). Air Force of Ukraine reports cruise missiles in northern Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast heading west to Lviv Oblast, specifically Zhudachiv, and then towards Lviv. RBK-Ukraina reports a missile towards Lviv. Николаевский Ванёк reports Lutsk PVO engaging 2 drones. Николаевский Ванёк reports remaining missiles flying towards Kalush. UAF Air Force confirms cruise missiles in northern Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast heading south towards Zakarpattia. RBK-Україна confirms cruise missiles in northern Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast heading south towards Zakarpattia. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also confirms cruise missiles in northern Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast heading south. Николаевский Ванёк reports that missiles towards Lviv and Kalush are not currently detected, advising to wait. UAF Air Force reports drone threat in Lutsk. RBK-Україна reports explosions in Kalush, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast. UAF Air Force and KMVA report air raid alerts lifting in various regions, indicating the end of the current wave of attacks. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" confirms USV attack on Novorossiysk. Zaporizhzhia OVA reports 421 strikes on 11 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. TASS reports Kartapolov (RF) claims the West is creating new tensions near RF borders (Finland, Moldova, Baltics). ASTRA reports PM Tusk's statement on military action taken against Polish airspace violations. UAF General Staff and Operatyvnyi ZSU report 990 RF personnel eliminated in last 24 hours. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and STERNENKO report approximately 10 Shaheds attacked Poland. TASS reports Warsaw and Rzeszów airports are closed due to unknown objects in Polish airspace. Serhiy Lysak (Dnipropetrovsk OVA) reports 8 RF UAVs destroyed over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the RF attacked Ukrainian territory with X-101, X-59, Kalibr missiles and Shaheds this night. TASS reports that calculations of the UAV units of the Southern Grouping of Forces destroyed three units of AFU armored vehicles. Colonelcassad shares video of FPV drone attacks by special forces on Ukrainian positions, equipment, and drones, including the destruction of a "Baba Yaga" drone in mid-air. The Governor of Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, Глеб Никитин, reports that a UAV attack was repelled in the region overnight, with no initial consequences recorded. RBC-Ukraine reports PVO was active in Rivne Oblast during the massive attack. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна cite Sadovyi (Lviv Mayor) stating "about 60 Shaheds and over 10 missiles flew towards Lviv" overnight. STERNENKO and Операция Z report a Russian drone damaged a house and a car in Vyryki-Volya, Lublin Voivodeship, Poland. Photos are provided. ASTRA reports UAF Air Force states Russia attacked with 415 drones and 43 missiles, with 8 drones crossing into Poland. TASS reports that the police in the Lublin Voivodeship, Poland, have confirmed the discovery of a downed UAV 30 km from the Belarusian border. Separately, the District Prosecutor's Office in Zamość, Poland, reported the discovery of wreckage from another downed UAV in a cemetery in southeastern Poland, 40 km from the Ukrainian border. This confirms at least two downed UAVs in Poland, with locations specified. Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, all independently confirm information about the invasion of Russian strike drones into Polish territory. All sources state that currently, 8 drones are known to have crossed, and an increasing number of facts indicate this movement was intentional rather than accidental, marking a significant escalation in scale and deliberateness. Операция Z (RF) reports the first photo of a downed drone in the Polish village of Mnishkov (Мнишкув), providing visual evidence of one of the incursions. Военкор Котенок (RF) posts a photo caption implying an initial RF media report on a downed "Russian drone" in Poland, specifically near a Polish residential area. Colonelcassad reports a combined RF strike on Ukraine on 10.09.2025. Poland's PM Tusk confirms 19 drones entered Poland overnight and 3 were shot down. Russia's Kotsnews milblogger confirms the destruction of an AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery radar system on the Zaporizhzhia direction by RF strike UAVs. TASS reports destruction of a UAV control antenna (unspecified location). TASS reports temporary restrictions at Gelendzhik airport. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports drone alarm in Gelendzhik, Novorossiysk, Myskhako. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports UAF drone damaged hotel in Shirokaya Balka. ТАСС reports six Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russia (four over Crimea, two over Belgorod Oblast). OSINT analysts report Russian drones traveled approximately 250 km inside Polish territory overnight (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). Poland found 7 drones and missile fragments (Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO, ТАСС). RF MoD video shows Northern Fleet tactical exercise in the Arctic. Сили оборони Півдня України (UAF Southern Defense Forces) video shows a drone strike on a Russian assault group advancing under fire, confirming successful tactical drone operations by UAF. Alex Parker Returns presents a tactical analysis of drone wreckage, implying recovered RF drones. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. TASS reports NATO applied Article 4 in connection with the UAV incident in Poland. Colonelcassad reports a Geranium strike in Cherkasy and Zhytomyr Oblasts on enemy military targets, and drone activity in Lviv Oblast, accompanied by videos showing flashes and explosions over Lviv at night. Операция Z (Voenkor Russkoy Vesny) shows photos of a downed drone in the Polish village of Woginy. Janus Putkonen (Finnish pro-RF) reports Poland's reaction to "Gerbera" drones, claiming they were unarmed and Belarus had warned of their straying. Военкор Котенок shares photos of another downed drone in Poland. NEW INTEL:

• RF UAV Activity (Mykolaiv) (Confidence: HIGH): Николаевский Ванёк reports one RF UAV from a group is heading towards Kulbakino (Mykolaiv). This is confirmed by Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stating "БпЛА ➡️ на Миколаїв!" (UAV towards Mykolaiv!). Explosions were reported in Mykolaiv amid drone threats by РБК-Україна. Николаевский Ванёк subsequently reports "оба дрона пролетели дальше в сторону Очакова" (both drones flew further towards Ochakiv), indicating a two-drone group.
• Israeli Airstrikes in Yemen Casualties Update (Confidence: HIGH): ТАСС (RF) and Colonelcassad (RF) report the Houthi Ministry of Health stating the death toll from Israeli strikes on Yemen has risen to 35, with 131 injured, nearly all civilians. This updates previous casualty figures, confirming significant civilian impact.
• RF IO - Ukraine Condemns Israel (Confidence: HIGH): Alex Parker Returns (RF) shares a photo message with a caption claiming "Ukraine condemned Israel for striking the capital of Qatar. This is a gross violation of international law, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine stated." This is a likely RF IO piece aimed at creating friction between Ukraine and Western/Israeli allies, and undermining Ukraine's diplomatic standing.
• RF IO - Siijarto on "Druzhba" Attacks (Confidence: HIGH): ТАСС (RF) shares a photo message quoting Hungarian FM Péter Szijjártó stating "Ukraine's attacks on 'Druzhba' pipeline harm Hungary and Slovakia, not Russia." This is a clear RF IO piece aimed at sowing discord between Ukraine and EU/NATO members by blaming Ukraine for energy security issues.
• RF IO - Qatar/Hamas "Gagster" Negotiations (Confidence: HIGH): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF) posts a text message detailing a conspiratorial narrative about Trump luring Hamas representatives to Qatar for negotiations, only for them to be attacked, comparing it to "gangster-style negotiations" and calling it "bespredel" (lawlessness). This is a highly inflammatory RF IO piece aimed at discrediting US/Israeli diplomacy and portraying them as perfidious.
• UAF IO - Omega Special Forces (Confidence: HIGH): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF) shares a photo message promoting the "Omega" Special Purpose Center, highlighting their strength "not only on the battlefield, but also in sports arenas." This is a UAF IO piece aimed at boosting morale and promoting military service.
• RF IO - Polish Drone Cost (Confidence: HIGH): Операция Z (RF) shares photo messages (multiple identical posts) featuring an infographic claiming "280 to 1! NATO F-35s shot down Gerbera drones for $10,000 with AIM-9X missiles for $2.8 million!" This is a rapid RF IO piece aimed at highlighting the perceived cost inefficiency of NATO air defense against cheap RF drones, further undermining NATO credibility and potentially influencing Western aid discussions.
• RF Internal IO - Traffic Inspector Video (Confidence: LOW): Новости Москвы (RF) shares a comedic video of a traffic inspector in the Moscow region, likely for domestic IO to project normalcy or humor, without direct military relevance.
• RF IO - "Bad Luck with Ukrainians" (Confidence: HIGH): НгП раZVедка (RF) posts a text message stating "We always claim that in our sinful world there is an undeniable truth: if you get involved with a Ukrainian - you suffer huge losses." This is a highly nationalistic and aggressive RF IO piece, framing Ukrainians as inherently detrimental, used to justify conflict and rally internal support.
• RF Drone Operators Activity (Confidence: HIGH): Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF) shares a video featuring "drone operators of the Steel Guards 144th Motor Rifle Division," claiming they "destroy enemy manpower and equipment daily, constantly improving their skills." The video shows drone footage of vehicles, thermal imagery, and smoke, indicating ongoing RF tactical drone operations.
• UAF IO - Shargorod School Murders (Confidence: LOW): РБК-Україна (UAF) reports on a suspect facing life imprisonment for the murder of schoolchildren in Shargorod. While a serious crime, this is domestic news without direct military intelligence implications unless linked to collaborators or occupation.
• RF IO - Zelenskiy Concealing Losses (Confidence: HIGH): Басурин о главном (RF) claims "The truly huge number of losses continues to be hidden by the long-overdue president of Ukraine with the obsession of a serial killer." This is a standard RF IO tactic to undermine Zelenskiy's credibility and demoralize UAF by alleging massive, concealed casualties.
• RF IO - "Gnome Tribal" Reference (Confidence: LOW): НгП раZVедка (RF) makes a cryptic reference to a "gnome Tribal" and "unsuccessful espionage in the northern forest." This is likely an internal milblogger reference or allegory, possibly mocking a Ukrainian figure or operation, but without clear military intelligence significance.
• RF Drone Movement (Kyiv to Zhytomyr) (Confidence: HIGH): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "БпЛА з Київщини ➡️ на Житомирщину." (UAV from Kyiv Oblast ➡️ to Zhytomyr Oblast.) This confirms continued RF drone activity targeting western regions.
• RF IO - Trump Calls for Execution (Confidence: HIGH): ASTRA (RF) shares a video and photo message with a caption "Animal". Trump called for the execution of a black man who killed a Ukrainian woman in North Carolina." This is a clear RF IO piece leveraging Trump's controversial statements to highlight racial tensions and judicial issues in the US, while also linking to Ukrainian suffering in a potentially manipulative way.
• RF Tactical Drone Operations (Confidence: HIGH): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF) shares a thermal imaging video with the caption "🤙 Ночью вылезли и утром не вернулись." (🤙 Came out at night and didn't return in the morning.) The video shows thermal signatures moving through a wooded area, implying successful RF drone strikes on UAF personnel.
• RF Artillery/Rocket Strikes (Confidence: HIGH): Рыбарь (RF) shares a video with the caption "📝Перехват БЛА над «лентой»📝" (Interception of UAV over the "line" - possibly front line or conveyor). The video shows nighttime artillery and rocket fire with subsequent explosions and a significant fire, confirming active RF indirect fire operations.
• RF Tactical Situation (Zaporizhzhia) (Confidence: HIGH): Два майора (RF) posts a photo message "🪂 Запорожское направление." This indicates continued RF focus and activity on the Zaporizhzhia front.
• RF Tactical Situation (South Donetsk) (Confidence: HIGH): Colonelcassad (RF) posts "ОБСТАНОВКА НА ЮЖНО-ДОНЕЦКОМ НАПРАВЛЕНИИ В ЗОНЕ ОТВЕТСТВЕННОСТИ ГРУППИРОВКИ ВОЙСК 'ВОСТОК'" (Situation on the South Donetsk direction in the area of responsibility of the "Vostok" Group of Forces). This confirms ongoing RF ground activity and reporting on this axis.
• UAF IO - Siijarto "Bloody Rubles" (Confidence: HIGH): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF) shares a photo message "Сіярто відпрацьовує криваві рублі." (Szijjártó is working off bloody rubles.) This is a UAF IO piece directly accusing Hungarian FM Szijjártó of being a Russian proxy, aimed at countering RF narratives and highlighting perceived collaboration with the aggressor.
• RF IO - Russian Commander Threats (Confidence: HIGH): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF) shares a video with the caption "«Вылазьте, пи*ари, а то мы вас скидами зае**шим». Такими словами російські командири підбадьорюют своих солдат на позициях. Радіоефір забитий погрозами фізичного знищення." (Get out, faggots, or we'll fuck you up with air drops. These are the words Russian commanders use to cheer up their soldiers in positions. The airwaves are filled with threats of physical annihilation.) This video and caption, attributed to UAF, highlights severe morale and discipline issues within RF forces, including threats against their own troops, and confirms the use of radio for such communications.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (Confidence: HIGH)

Conditions remained generally clear and favorable for ongoing air operations by both sides, including missile and UAV strikes across most of Ukraine. This is supported by continued high volumes of RF UAV activity (now up to 415 UAVs launched, 458 targets detected in total), including new activity in Obukhivskyi district, Kyiv Oblast, and northern Chernihiv Oblast, and Boryspilskyi district (Kyiv Oblast). The RF use of FPV drones implies good visibility and stable atmospheric conditions. However, heavy rainfall caused significant flooding in Kyiv, which would impede ground movement and local logistics. Current warnings for drone threats in Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, and now Lutsk (Volyn Oblast), Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Odesa, Ternopil, Lvivskyi, Zhytomyr, Brovary, Chernivtsi Oblasts, and Lviv city indicate continued favorable conditions for RF UAV operations in those regions, suggesting localized weather variations. Air alerts for ballistic missile threats continued to be dynamic across multiple oblasts, indicating persistent threat windows. Continued confirmed KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast and air alerts for aviation threats in Dnipropetrovsk indicate that conditions for tactical air operations remain favorable for RF. Oleg Synehubov, Head of Kharkiv OVA, reports an expected thunderstorm in Kharkiv in the next hour, which could temporarily impact local air operations and ground movement. Mash na Donbasse reports storm weather in Donetsk, indicating localized adverse conditions. UAF Air Force reports guided aerial bomb launches by RF tactical aviation on the northeastern part of Kharkiv Oblast and on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts, confirming continued favorable conditions for tactical air operations in that region. UAF Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the southeastern direction and Synelnykivskyi district, indicating continued favorable conditions for RF tactical air operations in that area. UAF Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs on eastern Kharkiv Oblast, reinforcing that conditions for tactical aviation remain favorable in that area. The lifting of air raid alerts suggests the immediate clear weather window for the current strike wave is closing in some areas, but general conditions for air operations remain favorable across much of the theater. UAF Air Force reports a ballistic missile threat from the eastern direction. UAF Air Force announces the lifting of the ballistic missile threat. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs (guided aerial bombs) are active in Sumy Oblast, indicating continued favorable conditions for RF tactical aviation in the area. Air Force of Ukraine reports KABs are active on the Donetsk direction, indicating continued favorable conditions for RF tactical aviation in the region. TASS reports temporary restrictions at Samara airport. ASTRA also reports temporary restrictions at Gelendzhik and Samara airports. TASS and ASTRA report the lifting of temporary restrictions at Gelendzhik airport. NEW INTEL:

• Dnipropetrovsk Missile Threat (Confidence: HIGH): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "missile danger!" for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This indicates continued conditions for RF missile launches.
• Kharkiv Northern KAB Launches (Confidence: HIGH): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation to the north of Kharkiv Oblast!" This confirms continued favorable conditions for RF tactical aviation operations in northern Kharkiv.
• Ballistic Missile Threat (Northeast) (Confidence: HIGH): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and РБК-Україна report a ballistic missile threat from the northeast, confirming conditions for ballistic missile launches.
• Missile over Sumy (Confidence: HIGH): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and РБК-Україна report missiles over Sumy region, confirming favorable conditions for missile flight.
• RF Reconnaissance UAV (Black Sea/Odesa) (Confidence: HIGH): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a hostile reconnaissance UAV from the Black Sea towards Odesa region, confirming conditions for ISR operations.
• RF Strike UAV (Sumy/Lebedyn) (Confidence: HIGH): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a strike UAV inbound towards Lebedyn, Sumy region, confirming conditions for strike drone operations.
• RF Drone Threat (Chernihiv) (Confidence: HIGH): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV (scooter type) towards Chernihiv, confirming conditions for drone operations. Immediate assessment confirms drone in Chernihiv suburbs.
• RF Drone Group Towards Poltava (Confidence: HIGH): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Полтавщина: група БпЛА повз Диканьку ➡️ курсом на Полтаву." (Poltava region: group of UAVs past Dykanka ➡️ en route to Poltava.) This indicates continued clear weather conditions for RF drone operations in Poltava.
• Ballistic Missile Threat Lifted (Confidence: HIGH): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Відбій загрози застосування балістичного озброєння." (All clear for ballistic missile threat.) This indicates a temporary cessation of ballistic missile threats, possibly due to a cleared weather window or target re-evaluation.
• RF Drone Groups Towards Kryvyi Rih (Confidence: HIGH): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Декілька груп БпЛА ➡️ в напрямку Кривого Рогу." (Several groups of UAVs ➡️ towards Kryvyi Rih.) This confirms continued clear weather for RF drone operations in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
• RF Drone Towards Poltava (Sumy origin) (Confidence: HIGH): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "🛵 Сумщина: БпЛА ➡️ курсом на Полтавщину." (Sumy region: UAV ➡️ en route to Poltava region.) This confirms continued clear weather for RF drone operations from Sumy towards Poltava.
• RF Reconnaissance on Kherson (Confidence: HIGH): MoD Russia video shows UAV reconnaissance detecting a camouflaged enemy artillery gun in a forest belt on the right bank of the Dnepr River in Kherson region. This indicates continued favorable conditions for RF ISR operations in the Kherson area.
• Drone Safety in RF Regions (Confidence: HIGH): STERNENKO (UAF) reports on "Drone safety in Bashkortostan, Saratov Oblast, and the Republic of Tatarstan." This indicates a high level of concern for drone threats in these RF regions, likely due to recent UAF deep strikes, impacting their freedom of air operations.
• RF Airspace Restrictions (Nizhnekamsk) (Confidence: HIGH): ТАСС (RF) and ASTRA (RF) report temporary restrictions at Nizhnekamsk airport, further indicating localized airspace control measures within RF.
• RF Drone Intercept (Mykolaiv) (Confidence: HIGH): Николаевский Ванёк (UAF) reports a drone heading towards Balovne/Matveevka (Mykolaiv Oblast) was intercepted ("minus").
• Ballistic Missile Threat Lifted (Confidence: HIGH): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and РБК-Україна report the ballistic missile threat has been lifted.
• RF Drone Movement (Mykolaiv/Ochakiv) (Confidence: HIGH): Николаевский Ванёк reports that a group of two drones flew towards Ochakiv from Mykolaiv.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (Confidence: HIGH)

• RF:

  • Ground Forces: RF continues to concentrate forces on the Pokrovsk axis, with confirmed deployment of marine infantry and "Somali" battalion elements. RF forces have broken through Ukrainian defenses near Chynyshyn, southeast of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), and entered Muravka, west of Pokrovsk. The RF 103rd Regiment is actively engaging UAF infantry and pushing towards Konstantinovka. Localized advances are ongoing in Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. Fierce battles are reported near Krasny Liman, DPR. "🅾️tvazhnye" units are conducting high-intensity engagements near Pokrovsk. "Anvar" special forces are reportedly active near Sumy and Chernihiv border. RF claims capture of Western military equipment (Bradley IFV, VAB APC) in Kursk Oblast. RF has advanced into Sosnivka, Dnipropetrovpetrovsk Oblast. RF forces mined parts of residential areas in Kherson overnight. MoD Russia has released a video showcasing Grad MLRS crews of the 44th Army Corps (Sever Group of Forces) eliminating camouflaged AFU positions and manpower clusters in Sumy region. Russian army units have advanced in the Kremensky forests, LPR, and taken control of approximately 3 km of the administrative border. RF UAV operators have established "fire control" over UAF logistical routes near Krasny Liman and Izium-Barvinkove. The 'Kur'er' robotic complex, equipped with a machine gun and mine-laying capabilities (up to 10 anti-tank mines autonomously up to 25 km away), and a "Fagot" anti-drone system, is now in use in tactical assaults. Colonelcassad reports an aviation strike on a UAF strongpoint near Myropillia, Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad also reports video of "Anvar" special forces operating in the border zone, destroying UAF assets. TASS reports Alaudinov, a Russian military figure, emphasizes the increased role of UAVs in establishing control over the Serebryansky forestry and expects 100% liberation of LPR soon. TASS reports "Veterok" drones on fiber optics can strike targets 25 km away, with 1000 supplied to the special operation zone. TASS reports "Vostok" Group destroyed an M119 howitzer near Novogrigorovka, and includes video of Russian soldiers engaged in live fire exercises with a heavy machine gun, demonstrating operational readiness and training. TASS reports Military Expert Andrey Marochko states that the AFU command has sent a new, reinforced battalion tactical group to the Vovchansk area of Kharkiv Oblast to contain the Russian army. TASS reports RF MOD claims destruction of a UAF self-propelled artillery system and an M113 APC on the Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka direction. TASS also claims hundreds of missing personnel in the UAF 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade operating near Sadky, Sumy Oblast. TASS also claims RF forces have taken control of 1.5 km of a supply route in Kupyansk. Два майора provides a daily summary report (Svodka). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (Paratrooper's Diary) provides a video summary of operations, including engagements with enemy positions and the interrogation of a captured soldier, mentioning DNR and Kursk Oblast. GSU reports indicate high intensity ground combat on Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka, Shakhtarske, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson directions, with UAF repelling numerous attacks. GSU also reports RF attempts to advance near Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast. TASS reports UAV units of the Southern Grouping of Forces destroyed three units of AFU armored vehicles. Colonelcassad provides video of special forces using FPV drones to strike UAF positions, equipment, and drones, including a "Baba Yaga" drone in mid-air. WarGonzo provides a "Frontline Summary" for the morning of 10.09.25, with tactical maps for Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv fronts, indicating continued RF ground operations across these axes. TASS reports RF forces encircled a UAF platoon strongpoint south of Kolodezi, DPR, destroying 25 UAF soldiers. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports the 10th Separate Guards Special Purpose Brigade of the Southern Grouping of Forces destroyed a camouflaged Starlink antenna and UAF personnel on the Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka direction. Воин DV reports drone operators of the 35th Army Group "Vostok" are actively engaged in hunting enemy personnel. TASS reports Pushilin claims RF forces are fighting in high-rise buildings in Krasnoarmeysk. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF) reports that RF forces have taken control of 1.5 km of a UAF supply route in Kupyansk. Народная милиция ДНР (RF) provides video footage of drone attacks on what are identified as UAF positions and personnel deployment points in Rusin Yar, showing explosions and smoke. The footage suggests successful engagement of these targets. GSU reports intensified clashes on the Pokrovsk direction near Volodymyrivka, Nove Shakhove, Zapovidne, Myrolubivka, Novoekonomichne, Lysivka, Shevchenko, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne and towards Vilne, Rodynske, Promin, Sukhyi Yar, Pokrovsk, Molodetske, indicating RF ground forces are pushing broad and deep into this sector. GSU reports ongoing clashes on the Novopavlivka direction near Maliyivka, Komyshuvakha, Novomykolayivka, Olhivka and towards Filiya, Ivanivka, Andriyivka-Klevtsove, Sichneve, Ternove, Novoivanivka, confirming RF intent to continue pressure in this area. GSU reports continued clashes on the Lyman direction near Novomykhaylivka, Karpivka, Serednye, Shandryholove, Kolodyazi, Zarichne and Torske, highlighting persistent RF efforts in this contested area. GSU reports clashes on the Sieversk direction near Yampil, Dronivka, Vyyimka, Pazeno, indicating new RF ground activity in this sector. GSU reports clashes on the Kramatorsk direction near Stupochky. GSU reports clashes on the Toretsk direction near Katerynivka, Yablunivka, Poltavka and towards Oleksandro-Shultyne, Pleschiyivka. GSU reports aviation airstrikes at Olhivka of Kherson region, indicating RF tactical air support for ground operations. GSU reports continued clashes near Vovchansk on the South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction. GSU reports continued clashes near Stepova Novoselivka and towards Kupyansk, Petropavlivka, Pischane on the Kupyansk direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF) posts photo/video of ground combat on the Krasnoarmeysk direction and what appears to be an interrogated Ukrainian POW, reinforcing RF claims of advances and UAF personnel losses. Воин DV (RF) shares a video of RF Zapad grouping conducting medical evacuation training, demonstrating continued focus on personnel sustainment and readiness for combat. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Kotsnews confirm destruction of an AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery radar system on the Zaporizhzhia direction by RF strike UAVs. WarGonzo reports transfer of "Skvorets" drones and "Orbita" hardware/software complexes to RF forces from "United Russia," Central Bank of Social Technologies, and "Our Truth" foundation. Старше Эдды (RF) shares video of drone operators from 144th MSD destroying UAF personnel and equipment daily. Воин DV reports FPV drone of 69th Separate Brigade destroyed UAF transport and routed personnel. MoD Russia reports Northern Fleet conducted tactical marine infantry landing exercise in Arctic. STERNENKO (UAF) video shows FPV drone attacks on RF infantry fighting vehicle (BMP) and dismounted personnel on the Pokrovsk direction by the UMBRELLA 32nd Separate Mechanized Brigade using fiber-optic drones. Два майора (RF) reports aerial reconnaissance footage of explosions in a rural area on the Zaporizhzhia front, with thermal imagery, and an audio narration. Сили оборони Півдня України (UAF Southern Defense Forces) video shows a drone strike on a Russian assault group. Воин DV (RF) shows a new compilation of "Vostok" Group UAV operators destroying enemy automotive equipment.
  • NEW INTEL: RF MOD (TASS): Claims RF Armed Forces hit temporary deployment points of Ukrainian armed formations and foreign mercenaries in 152 districts. Воин DV (RF) reports on the situation in the South Donetsk direction, indicating continued RF ground activity there.
  • NEW INTEL: RF Air Defense Claims (TASS): RF PVO claims 225 Ukrainian UAVs of aircraft type, one Neptune guided missile, and three HIMARS MLRS rockets were shot down over the past day. This is a significant increase from previous claims.
  • NEW INTEL: RF Denial (Два майора, STERNENKO): RF Ministry of Defense denies that objects on Polish territory were planned targets, with STERNENKO reporting the maximal flight range of UAVs into Poland does not exceed 700km.
  • NEW INTEL: Poland Deployment (ТАСС): Polish Armed Forces are redeploying units to the border with Belarus.
  • NEW INTEL: RF Air Defense Claims (TASS): RF PVO claims 32 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Belgorod, Kursk Oblasts, Krasnodar Krai, and Black Sea from 11:15 to 14:00 MSK.
  • NEW INTEL: RF Internal Affairs (ТАСС): Russia's Prosecutor General's Office has sent to court the case of former heads of the Kursk Oblast Development Corporation for embezzlement in fortification construction. Former Kursk Oblast Governor Smirnov, accused of embezzling billions and bribery related to fortifications, has reportedly admitted guilt and cut a deal with investigators.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF Ground Combat (Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України): UAF drone operators from "Spartan" brigade are liquidating small RF infantry groups on the Pokrovsk direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a Russian breakthrough attempt in Sumy Oblast was thwarted by UAF drones and remote mining. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України video shows successful drone strikes on RF positions, including vehicles and personnel.
  • NEW INTEL: RF Ground Combat (Kadyrov_95, Colonelcassad, WarGonzo): Kadyrov_95 reports continued active work by the 78th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Sever-AKHMAT" of the RF MoD to destroy enemy forces. Colonelcassad shares drone video of a TOS-1A + FAB strike on what appear to be Ukrainian positions, with thermal imagery. WarGonzo shares drone footage of military vehicle engagement and personnel scattering, and other footage of soldiers operating drones and engaging targets.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF Drone Production (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS): European Commission President states the EU will allocate €6 billion to scale up Ukrainian drone production.
  • NEW INTEL: NATO Response (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS): NATO activated Article 4 of its charter, according to Polsat News. Colonel Martin O'Donnell (NATO Echelon) states German Patriot PAC-3 systems in Poland were put on combat readiness during the drone incursions.
  • NEW INTEL: Poland Drone Incursions Details (РБК-Україна): Media reports state drones with Cyrillic inscriptions penetrated 300 km into Poland, identifying specific locations of downed drones (Ryki, Svyatohrad, Vyryki-Volya).
  • NEW INTEL: RF Air Asset Degradation (Fighterbomber): Fighterbomber reports "Zhuk-Boris" (likely an RF drone or system) has been "punished" and sent for "dismantling." Fighterbomber also comments on patriotic channels being offered bribes to spread certain narratives, indicating internal information warfare.
  • NEW INTEL: RF Domestic/IO (Alex Parker Returns, Новости Москвы, Север.Реалии, Mash на Донбассе): Alex Parker Returns shares a video of a Tajik diaspora leader (Farukh Mirzoev) speaking against mandatory Russian language testing for migrant children. Новости Москвы shares a comedic video of frogs in a wedding setting and another video depicting urban residents keeping chickens on balconies, both likely for domestic IO to project normalcy/social commentary. Север.Реалии reports on Russia's comments regarding drones in Polish airspace. Alex Parker Returns shares an image with text "Погромы будут. Быть добру!" (Pogroms will happen. All will be well!). Mash на Донbasse shares a comedic video about responding to clients after advertising. WarGonzo shares a video with the caption "New generation of drug traffickers prefers UAVs." STERNENKO (UAF) posts an image about Kazimir Malevich being a Ukrainian artist whose legacy Russia appropriated. TASS reports a quadrupedal robot dog, identified as 'PAUKA' and 'DEEPROBOTICS', was publicly demonstrated in Moscow.
  • NEW INTEL: TASS (Culture/Diplomacy/Legal): Ex-Chief Justice of Nepal, Sushila Karki, agreed to head interim cabinet. Flags of RF and Belarus cannot be raised during 2026 Olympic qualifiers for skating. US company Advance Magazine Publishers (Condé Nast) applied for trademarks Glamour and Tatler in Russia. EU Court lifted sanctions on Russian businessman Dmitry Pumpyansky but upheld them against Yanukovych and son, Abramovich, and Khudaverdyan. RF MOD states it struck UAF temporary deployment points and foreign mercenaries in 152 districts. PVO shot down 225 UAVs, one Neptune missile, and three HIMARS rockets. Reports on fraudsters targeting SVO widows.
  • NEW INTEL: Офіс Генерального прокурора (UAF): Reports FSB and MVD Russia leadership notified of suspicions of complicity in dispersing Maidan protesters in Feb 2014. Офіс Генерального прокурора also reports a former teacher in Vinnytsia suspected of collaborating with RF.
  • NEW INTEL: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF): Video shows footage from a thermal imaging drone observing military activity and an apparent ground-based drone evacuation. This channel also features a video of a woman collecting water, indicating potential resource scarcity in occupied Donetsk.
  • NEW INTEL: РБК-Україна (UAF): Reports new military bases near Minsk, Belarus, could host Russian "Oreshnik" missiles, citing media reports. This channel also reports on two Russian top security officials being suspected of complicity in the Maidan shootings. РБК-Україна also reports on Nepal's former Chief Justice heading the interim cabinet after protests, suggesting global instability for IO.
  • NEW INTEL: Colonelcassad (RF): Provides a video of civil unrest in Paris, with police arrests and use of tear gas, noting over 300 arrests. Also comments on alleged UK hypocrisy regarding Israel's attack on Qatar.
  • NEW INTEL: Операция Z (RF): Reports Poles are blaming Ukraine for drones entering Poland. This channel also reports on an individual being sentenced for espionage in Kreminna, LNR.
  • NEW INTEL: Janus Putkonen (Finnish pro-RF): Claims a majority of Poles believe drones entering Poland were launched by Ukraine.
  • NEW INTEL: Два майора (RF): Expresses frustration with Polish reactions to RF UAVs entering their territory, contrasting it with Polish troop incursions into Kursk Oblast, and advocates for missile strikes on Warsaw. Два майора also shares video showcasing a soldier in a green t-shirt with a double-headed eagle patch, likely for internal morale.
  • NEW INTEL: Север.Реалии (RF): Reports that the Fonbet betting site will not be included in the "whitelist" for internet access during shutdowns.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (TASS): China warned the U.S. against interfering in its internal affairs and attempts to contain the country's development. (Not directly related to Ukraine, but indicates broader geopolitical tensions RF is involved in).
  • NEW INTEL: RF (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники): A video post with the caption "Military beat a father of many children to death" and accompanying text claiming a Russian soldier beat a civilian to death and authorities are failing to act. This is a severe report of internal military misconduct and lack of accountability within RF. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники also posts about veterans of the "SVO" being proposed to be sent to Siberia, likely a negative IO piece.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS): A video post titled "Trump called for the death penalty for the killer of Ukrainian Iryna Zarutska" showing an altercation on public transport. This highlights a prominent international political figure commenting on a crime involving a Ukrainian citizen, which can be leveraged for IO.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (Офіс Генерального прокурора): A video and photo series reporting "A resident of Kyiv region was sentenced to 9 years in prison for a terrorist act – he set up a tripwire with a grenade in an apartment where he planned to blow up police officers." This indicates successful UAF counter-terrorism operations.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (Новости Москвы): Posts a photo message with the caption "Now NFT gifts, cars, and real estate are valued." This is a domestic social commentary post, not militarily relevant.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (TASS): Posts a video with the caption "A tourist from Russia shared footage of the situation in Nepal with TASS." The video shows streets with military personnel and closed shops. This is likely RF IO to show global unrest and potentially deflect from Ukraine.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (Alex Parker Returns): Posts a photo with the caption "Ukraine. GDP per capita €5019. Average salary €380. Average pension €132. Therefore, the SMO is Russia's humanitarian mission in Ukraine. The puzzle has come together. All will be well!" This is a clear RF IO piece attempting to justify the war as a "humanitarian mission" based on skewed economic data. Alex Parker Returns also shares a screenshot of a social media post expressing alarm about World War III starting from Poland, likely for IO.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (РБК-Україна): Reports "European Court refused Yanukovych and Abramovich exclusion from the sanctions list.". This confirms continued legal pressure on sanctioned Russian and pro-Russian figures.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (Басурин о главном): Posts photo messages with the caption "Watching Poland play circus." The photo depicts a political figure in a formal setting. This is RF IO mocking Poland's response to the drone incursions.
  • NEW INTEL: AV БогомаZ posts multiple photos of a meeting at the "Defenders of the Fatherland" fund with Igor Olegovich Shchegolev, Presidential Plenipotentiary Representative in the Central Federal District, and winners of the "Bryansk Heroes" program. This appears to be a formal event related to veteran support and regional recognition. Attendees include individuals in civilian suits, some with military-style decorations, and some in uniforms that appear to be from Russian emergency services (MCHS). Russian flags and symbols of the "Defenders of the Fatherland" fund are visible.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦): Provides a video showing damage to a multi-story residential building, highlighting the aftermath of an attack on a civilian area, with the hashtag #RUSSIAISATERRORISTSTATE.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS): Reports a difficult evacuation conducted by the company of ground robotic complexes of the 93rd Brigade "Kholodny Yar," involving drone thermal imagery and a wounded soldier's testimony of drone attack.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (Олексій Білошицький): Posts a graphic notice for Kyiv residents and guests, likely related to security measures.
  • NEW INTEL: RF Intellectual Property - Xiaomi (Confidence: HIGH): TASS reports Xiaomi has registered a trademark in Russia allowing it to produce and sell beer, coffee, chocolate, and other goods. This suggests continued economic activity and efforts to bypass sanctions.
  • NEW INTEL: RF MFA Statement on Polish Incursion (Confidence: HIGH): TASS reports RF MFA states that "facts presented by the RF MoD dispelled Poland's myths about alleged deliberate violation of Russian UAVs of the republic's airspace," which Poland circulated for "even greater escalation of the Ukrainian crisis." This is a diplomatic denial and counter-accusation.
  • NEW INTEL: Zaporizhzhia OVA - World Relief MoU (Confidence: HIGH): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts photos showing a memorandum of cooperation signed between Zaporizhzhia OVA and "World Relief." This indicates ongoing humanitarian support.
  • NEW INTEL: RF Nationalist Historical Propaganda (Confidence: HIGH): WarGonzo posts photos and captions commemorating "210 years ago, on September 10, 1815, the review of Russian troops in Champagne took place – the largest parade in world history." This is clearly historical propaganda.
  • NEW INTEL: RF Blogger Messaging on Ukraine Privatization (Confidence: HIGH): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts an image with text claiming "Ukraine expects a new wave of privatization, and in fact – a mass sale of state property is being prepared." This is an RF IO narrative.
  • NEW INTEL: RF Government Economic Focus (Confidence: HIGH): TASS posts a video of Mishustin (RF PM) stating that "reducing inflation is one of the key tasks" for the Russian government.
  • NEW INTEL: WarGonzo - US War Readiness IO (Confidence: HIGH): WarGonzo posts an image with the caption "Is America ready for war?" This is an RF IO narrative questioning US capabilities.
  • NEW INTEL: RF Milblogger Mocking Poland (Confidence: HIGH): НгП раZVедка posts a message mocking Poland's reaction to the drone incursions: "They just have nothing on the city hall spire, so we came to see what you're starting right away. A pure, we note, coincidence." This indicates continued RF IO to discredit Poland.
  • NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns - US Political IO (Confidence: HIGH): Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message featuring a quote attributed to "American politics bulldozer" (likely Trump) calling for the swift execution of an individual who killed a Ukrainian refugee in the US, while also criticizing Democrats for bureaucratic impediments to the death penalty. This is an RF IO piece leveraging a high-profile case and US internal politics.
  • NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns - Domestic Social Commentary (Confidence: HIGH): Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message with the caption "Their struggle," depicting a non-military scene.
  • NEW INTEL: Israeli Air Strikes in Yemen (Confidence: HIGH): TASS and Colonelcassad report Israeli aviation attacked several Houthi targets in Sanaa, Yemen, including the Ministry of Defense and General Staff buildings. WarGonzo provides video of a large explosion and damaged urban areas.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF POW Families Meeting (Confidence: HIGH): The Coordination Staff for POWs (Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими) reports a meeting with families of soldiers from the 1st Separate Assault Regiment.
  • NEW INTEL: Zaporizhzhia OVA Alert (Confidence: HIGH): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues a general alert (🚨УВАГА🚨).
  • NEW INTEL: UAF Drone Operations - Lyman Direction (Confidence: HIGH): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF) posts video claiming Ukrainian drone operators of the "SIGNUM" battalion, 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, are "masterfully cutting off enemy logistics" on the Lyman direction. The video shows drone footage tracking vehicles and personnel in a wooded, semi-urban area.
  • NEW INTEL: RF Tactical Situation - Zaporizhzhia (Confidence: HIGH): Kotsnews (RF) video shows drone footage and smoke plumes on the Zaporizhzhia front, implying ongoing RF activity and engagement.
  • NEW INTEL: RF Economic Statement (Confidence: HIGH): TASS video of Mishustin (RF PM) states "unemployment in Russia remains at a historical minimum," for domestic IO.
  • NEW INTEL: RF Economic Social Commentary (Confidence: HIGH): Новости Москвы (RF) reports "Russians with income below 43 thousand rubles per month want to be recognized as poor," a domestic social commentary.
  • NEW INTEL: Polish Drone Incursion Update (Confidence: HIGH): TASS reports fragments of UAVs that violated Polish airspace were found in 10 locations in eastern and central Poland.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF Veteran Support (Confidence: HIGH): Олександр Вілкул (UAF) posts photos and text about veterans Anton Rezvin and Pavlo Godko, who expanded their fitness club network with grants, for domestic IO.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF Sanctions on RF DIB (Confidence: HIGH): РБК-Україна (UAF) reports Zelensky imposed new sanctions against Russia's military-industrial complex.
  • NEW INTEL: RF IO on US Aid to Ukraine (Confidence: HIGH): Операция Z (RF) shares a photo message with a caption quoting "Congress in the USA" stating "Our taxes should not go to Ukraine to kill people," for IO. TASS also reports a US Congress member proposing a ban on financial aid to Ukraine.
  • NEW INTEL: RF IO on Poland/Israel (Confidence: HIGH): Военкор Котенок (RF) posts a photo message claiming "Israel launched new strikes on the capital of Yemen, Sanaa. Local resources confirm a hit on the General Staff building," and other photo/video messages depicting explosions. These are used for IO to highlight global instability.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF Fundraising (Confidence: HIGH): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF) shares a photo message for fundraising for an Artillery Reconnaissance Battery (BUAR) unit.
  • NEW INTEL: RF Tactical Air (Sumy) (Confidence: HIGH): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a strike UAV (Лебедин) inbound towards Sumy region.
  • NEW INTEL: RF Ballistic Missile Threat (Sumy) (Confidence: HIGH): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and РБК-Україна report a ballistic missile threat from the northeast, with missiles over Sumy region.
  • NEW INTEL: RF Reconnaissance UAV (Odesa) (Confidence: HIGH): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a hostile reconnaissance UAV from the Black Sea towards Odesa region.
  • NEW INTEL: RF Drone Threat (Chernihiv) (Confidence: HIGH): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV (scooter type) towards Chernihiv. Immediate assessment by Air Force of Ukraine confirms a drone in the Chernihiv suburbs.
  • NEW INTEL: RF Corruption (Kursk) (Confidence: HIGH): TASS reports that part of the embezzled money for fortifications in Kursk Oblast went to bribes to employees of the "Kursk Oblast Development Corporation" and regional administration. TASS further reports former Deputy Head of Kursk Oblast, Alexey Dedov, cried in court talking about his family while accused of fraud in fortification construction.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF Kidnapping (Odesa) (Confidence: HIGH): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a serviceman was kidnapped from a military unit in Odesa Oblast.
  • NEW INTEL: RF Civilian Support Shortfall IO (Confidence: HIGH): Военкор Котенок (RF) video claims volunteers are still collecting money for quadcopters, thermal imagers, and first-aid kits, while "the Kremlin is holding a carnival of wealth," indicating a domestic IO narrative highlighting discrepancies in support.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF IO - NATO Air Defense Efficacy (Confidence: HIGH): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF) posts a screenshot of a BBC article stating NATO had a "much worse success rate in shooting down Russian drones than Ukraine," which is a UAF IO piece aimed at highlighting UAF's superior air defense and potentially shaming NATO.
  • NEW: UAF Drone Strike (Dnipropetrovsk) (Confidence: HIGH): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF) video shows a drone strike near power lines, resulting in an explosion, smoke, and what appears to be a downed drone/munition and casualties. Text overlay implies "Several Russian infantrymen were connected to the power grid 'good Russians'", suggesting enemy casualties.
  • NEW: UAF Sanctions Synchronization (Confidence: HIGH): РБК-Україна (UAF) reports Ukraine has synchronized sanctions against Russia with Great Britain.
  • NEW: CyberBoroshno Vacancy (Confidence: HIGH): КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posts a vacancy for a Python/Django Developer.
  • NEW: Polish-Belarusian Drone Contact (Confidence: HIGH): TASS reports Polish FM Sikorski confirmed contact with Minsk regarding UAV airspace violations on the night of 9-10 September.
  • NEW: Slovakian PM on Drone Incursion (Confidence: HIGH): Операция Z (RF) and Операция Z (RF) share photo messages quoting Slovakian PM Fico, stating "It is necessary to find out whose they are and whether it was intentional," regarding the drones in Poland.
  • NEW: STERNENKO Explosions Video (Confidence: HIGH): STERNENKO (UAF) shares a video with the caption "Дуже вибухово!" (Very explosive!), showing what appears to be a drone strike on a vehicle in an urban or semi-urban setting, causing a significant explosion. The video also has fundraising text for UAF defense forces.
  • NEW: Alex Parker Returns Gambling Ad (Confidence: HIGH): Alex Parker Returns (RF) posts photo messages with a caption about a minimum deposit of 100 rubles, which appears to be an advertisement.
  • NEW: Poddubny IO on Drone Incursion (Confidence: HIGH): Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF) posts a photo message stating the drone provocation in Poland "did not go according to plan," and suggests Europe will focus on its own defense industry rather than sponsoring Ukraine.
  • NEW: Olexiy Biloshitskyi Yarova Video (Confidence: HIGH): Олексій Білошицький (UAF) shares a video with the caption "💔 Ярова, Донецька область," showing damaged buildings and patrol police assisting civilians, with a drone mentioned nearby.
  • NEW: Israeli Strikes in Yemen Update (Confidence: HIGH): РБК-Україна (UAF) posts video and photos confirming Israeli strikes on Houthi targets in Sanaa, Yemen.
  • NEW: RF Drone Group Towards Poltava (Confidence: HIGH): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Полтавщина: група БпЛА повз Диканьку ➡️ курсом на Полтаву." (Poltava region: group of UAVs past Dykanka ➡️ en route to Poltava.)
  • NEW: Von der Leyen on Russian Energy (Confidence: HIGH): TASS posts a photo message quoting Ursula von der Leyen calling on the EU to permanently abandon Russian energy resources.
  • NEW: ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA Art (Confidence: HIGH): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts stylized graphic art with a "hidden meaning" from a "sunflower series."
  • NEW: Ballistic Missile Threat Lifted (Confidence: HIGH): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Відбій загрози застосування балістичного озброєння." (All clear for ballistic missile threat.)
  • NEW: NGP Razvedka on Lithuanian Preparedness (Confidence: HIGH): НгП раZVедка (RF) states "It was simply interesting how ready the Lithuanians are, constantly broadcasting about their readiness to teach us a lesson militarily, to be who they claim to be."
  • NEW: Coerced Contract Signing (RF) (Confidence: HIGH): МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF) shares a video claiming conscripts are being coerced into signing military contracts, including while hospitalized, with psychological pressure and threats.
  • NEW: UAF GSU on Civilian Casualties (Confidence: HIGH): Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UAF) shares photo messages with "UA / ENG #russiaHitsCivilians" hashtags, depicting damaged civilian infrastructure (buildings, an empty street, possibly debris) without direct military equipment.
  • NEW: Trump on Polish Drone Attack (UAF/RF) (Confidence: HIGH): РБК-Україна (UAF) and ASTRA (RF) share photo messages quoting Trump reacting to the Russian drone attack on Polish territory. STERNENKO (UAF) also quotes Trump saying "It's starting!"
  • NEW: RF FSB Activity (Kherson) (Confidence: HIGH): Colonelcassad (RF) video shows FSB apprehending a Russian citizen in Kherson Oblast for alleged public calls for extremist activities on Telegram, including advocating for murder of Russians.
  • NEW: UAF POW Staff Council (Confidence: HIGH): Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (UAF) reports the start of establishing a Public Council of the Coordination Staff.
  • NEW: Zaporizhzhia Drone Damage (Confidence: HIGH): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (UAF) posts photos of a damaged apartment building in Zaporizhzhia with broken windows and a damaged balcony, stating "Enemy attacked Zaporizhzhia with UAVs." The Zaporizhzhia OVA provides photo messages showing consequences of the attack.
  • NEW: RF Claims UAF Reserves for Vovchansk (Confidence: HIGH): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF) claims "AFU is pulling up reserves to strengthen the grouping near Vovchansk."
  • NEW: Operatyvnyi ZSU Meme (Confidence: HIGH): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF) posts a photo message with a meme about an "old man" writing something difficult.
  • NEW: Berdychiv Missile Strike Video (Confidence: HIGH): Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UAF) shares a video of missile strikes in Berdychiv, Zhytomyr Oblast, showing explosions and smoke over a residential area. Colonelcassad (RF) also shares a video of cruise missile arrivals at a target in Berdychiv.
  • NEW: Fighterbomber Military Display (Confidence: HIGH): Fighterbomber (RF) shares a video displaying Russian military-related items, including a helmet, goggles, St. George's ribbon, and camouflage paint.
  • NEW: RF Drone Groups Towards Kryvyi Rih (Confidence: HIGH): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Декілька груп БпЛА ➡️ в напрямку Кривого Рогу." (Several groups of UAVs ➡️ towards Kryvyi Rih.) RBC-Ukraine confirms this.
  • NEW: Lithuanian Defense Minister on Drone Incursion (Confidence: HIGH): НгП раZVедка (RF) reports the Lithuanian Defense Minister considers Russian drone incursions into Poland to be accidental.
  • NEW: Два майора "Soldier's Daily Life" (Confidence: HIGH): Два майора (RF) posts a series of photo messages under the rubric "Будни солдата" (Soldier's Daily Life), depicting daily scenes of soldiers.
  • NEW: Воин DV Special Forces Action (Confidence: HIGH): Воин DV (RF) shares a video titled "💥63 отдельная рота спецназа 35 армии группировки войск 'Восток' уничтожает живую силу противника," showing drone footage of an engagement in a wooded area with explosions and smoke.
  • NEW: Kadyrov_95 on Sumy Artillery Strike (Confidence: HIGH): Kadyrov_95 (RF) shares a video claiming "Group 'Sida' from the famous 'Aida' detachment of AHMAT special forces of the RF MoD successfully hit a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery system on the Sumy direction." The video shows aerial footage of a smoke plume and drone telemetry.
  • NEW: Igor Artamonov Agricultural Complex (Confidence: HIGH): Игорь Артамонов (Lipetsk Governor, RF) shares a video about a new agricultural complex ("Agrotek-Promtsentr") in Yeletsky district, promoting its importance for agricultural development.
  • NEW: Два майора "Deep Rear" Commentary (Confidence: HIGH): Два майора (RF) comments "Магазин. Глубокий тыл." (Shop. Deep rear.), likely a social commentary.
  • NEW: UAF on Polish Drone Cost (Confidence: HIGH): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF) posts a photo message claiming "Poles today shot down 'Gerbera' decoy drones for $10 thousand with AIM-120C-7 missiles for $1.2 million." This is an IO piece highlighting cost inefficiency. Kotsnews also posts a photo message questioning whether "Gerberas" were shot down with 1.8 million dollar missiles.
  • NEW: Dnipropetrovsk OVA on Nikopol Attacks (Confidence: HIGH): 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (UAF) posts photos of damage (dilapidated structures, damaged residential building, destroyed roof) in Nikopol district, stating "Enemy attacked the area mostly with FPV drones, also used artillery. Nikopol itself, Myrivska, Pokrovska, Marhanetska, Chervonohryhorivska communities were under attack."
  • NEW: Zaporizhzhia Attack Casualties (Confidence: HIGH): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (UAF) reports "Two people were injured as a result of an enemy attack on Zaporizhzhia." The photo shows damage to a residential building.
  • NEW: Voenkor Kotenok on SVO Benefits Channel (Confidence: HIGH): Военкор Котенок (RF) posts a photo message announcing "⚡️An official channel 'SVO Benefits' has appeared."
  • NEW: RF Drone Towards Poltava (Sumy origin) (Confidence: HIGH): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "🛵 Сумщина: БпЛА ➡️ курсом на Полтавщину." (Sumy region: UAV ➡️ en route to Poltava region.)
  • NEW: RBK-Ukraina on Dnipropetrovsk Energy Object (Confidence: HIGH): РБК-Україна (UAF) posts a photo message stating "😡 Russia hit an energy object in Dnipropetrovsk region with drones."
  • NEW: Operatsiya Z on RF MFA Statement (Confidence: HIGH): Операция Z (RF) shares photo messages quoting an RF MFA statement regarding Polish accusations against Russia, likely a denial of responsibility.
  • NEW: TASS on KTK Payment (Confidence: HIGH): TASS reports KTK (Caspian Pipeline Consortium) has pre-trial paid a claim for environmental damage to a water body after an emergency situation.
  • NEW: UAF IO on Berdychiv Collaborator (Confidence: HIGH): Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UAF) posts photo messages attempting to identify a TikTok user ("Slava from Berdychiv") who allegedly rejoices at Russian missile strikes.
  • NEW: Два майора on Kursk Corruption (Confidence: HIGH): Два майора (RF) posts a photo message reporting RIA Novosti claims former Kursk Oblast Governor Alexey Smirnov, accused of embezzling 1 billion rubles during fortification construction, is now also suspected of bribery.
  • NEW: STERNENKO on Kyiv Council (Confidence: HIGH): STERNENKO (UAF) posts photo messages claiming "Kyiv Council can disrupt the protection of Protasov Yar from development."
  • NEW: Ramstein Meeting (Confidence: HIGH): Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UAF) posts photos with the caption "In video conference format, participated in the 30th meeting of the Contact Group on Ukraine's Defense in 'Ramstein' format." The images show high-level defense officials, including Ukraine, Austria, and UK.
  • NEW: Basurin on "Debt Payment" (Confidence: HIGH): Басурин о главном (RF) posts photo messages with the caption "ДОЛГ ПЛАТЕЖОМ КРАСЕН" (Debt is paid with payment), depicting a dramatic scene of one person gagged, likely for IO.
  • NEW: Colonelcassad on RF MoD Progress Report (Confidence: HIGH): Colonelcassad (RF) reports "⚡ Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation as of September 10, 2025."
  • NEW: TASS on Trump's Reaction (Confidence: HIGH): TASS posts a photo message quoting Trump's reaction to the UAV situation in Poland: "It's starting."
  • NEW: Anatoliy Shtefan on Demobilization (Confidence: HIGH): Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UAF) posts a composite image with the caption "😱 successfully demobilized," likely propaganda.
  • NEW: Zelenskiy-Von der Leyen Call (Confidence: HIGH): Zelenskiy / Official (UAF) posts photos with the caption "Spoke with President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen."
  • NEW: UAF Intercept of RF Fiber-Optic Drones (Confidence: HIGH): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF) and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF) videos report the successful destruction of a group ambush of three Russian fiber-optic drones by the "Lazary" National Guard unit (fishfpv) near a logistics route. This indicates UAF is actively targeting RF advanced drone systems.
  • NEW: RF Propaganda on US Aid (Confidence: HIGH): Рыбарь (RF) posts a photo message with "Not what they wanted" and images related to US politics, indicating RF IO is actively shaping narratives around US aid.
  • NEW: RF Soldier Propaganda (Confidence: HIGH): Два майора (RF) shares a video showcasing a soldier in a green t-shirt with a double-headed eagle patch, likely for internal morale or recruitment.
  • NEW: UAF Reconnaissance on Donetsk (Confidence: HIGH): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF) reports Azov reconnaissance footage from GoPro clearing Donetsk region of occupiers, with graphic content (18+).
  • NEW: RF IO on Polish Incursion (Confidence: HIGH): Zvиздец Мангусту (RF) comments that NATO's reaction to Russian drones in Polish airspace was predictable, indicating RF IO is downplaying the severity of the incident.
  • NEW: RF IO on US Politics (Confidence: HIGH): Alex Parker Returns (RF) shares a screenshot of a social media post with a quote attributed to "American politics bulldozer" announcing "World War III has begun," linking it to Poland. This is clear RF IO amplifying alarmist narratives.
  • NEW: RF Propaganda Map - Zaporizhzhia (Confidence: HIGH): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF) posts a propaganda map with superimposed video clips and text, indicating military operations on the Zaporizhzhia direction.
  • NEW: RF IO - Chechen Leader Reflection (Confidence: HIGH): Alex Parker Returns (RF) video features a woman reflecting on her acquaintance with Dzhakhar Dudayev and his wife, a personal reflection used for IO purposes, potentially to create a narrative about Chechnya.
  • NEW: RF Reconnaissance UAV (Kherson) (Confidence: HIGH): MoD Russia video shows UAV reconnaissance detecting a camouflaged enemy artillery gun in a forest belt on the right bank of the Dnepr River in Kherson region.
  • NEW: RF Claims UAF Casualties (Dnipropetrovsk) (Confidence: HIGH): Colonelcassad (RF) posts photo messages claiming "Russian troops are grinding down the enemy: Forest strips near Dnipropetrovsk are covered with AFU corpses." This is a graphic RF IO claim about UAF losses.
  • NEW: Colonelcassad Drone Hunt (Confidence: HIGH): Colonelcassad (RF) shares two video messages from the 35th Army Group "Vostok" drone operators from Yekaterinoslavka, claiming they are "hunting enemy personnel." The video shows thermal imagery of explosions, suggesting successful targeting of UAF positions/personnel.
  • NEW: Два майора Geopolitical/Economic Summary (Confidence: HIGH): Два майора (RF) shares a video titled "❗️Выпуск 4❗️" which provides a fragmented narrative covering various geopolitical events and figures, including the SCO summit, interactions between world leaders (Putin, Xi Jinping, Modi, Trump), discussions on international relations, economic blocs like BRICS, and mentions of military parades and operations (specifically referencing a map of Ukraine with troop movements). This is RF IO for a broader geopolitical and economic audience.
  • NEW: Zelenskiy Diplomatic Engagement (Confidence: HIGH): Зеленский / Official (UAF), 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (UAF), and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UAF) all post identical photo messages stating Zelenskiy spoke with Polish PM Donald Tusk, UK PM Keir Starmer, Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. This indicates a flurry of high-level diplomatic activity by Ukraine following the recent RF escalations.
  • NEW: UAF IO on RF Casualties (Confidence: HIGH): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF) posts several photo messages claiming "For Russia, entire families are already dying: the entire military dynasty of the Gorbatovs followed the road to nowhere. Husband, son, and finally mother reunited to say 'thank you' to Putin." This is a UAF IO piece aimed at demoralizing RF forces and domestic audiences by highlighting heavy family losses.
  • NEW: RF Denies Explosives in Polish Drones (Confidence: HIGH): Операция Z (RF) and Colonelcassad (RF) report Polish prosecution stating no explosives were found in 12 drone fragments discovered in Poland. This is an immediate RF IO counter-narrative to de-escalate the perceived threat from the incursions.
  • NEW: UAF Air Alert (Confidence: HIGH): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF) reports air alert in Kyiv and several oblasts due to ballistic missile and UAV threats.
  • NEW: RF IO - Main News (Confidence: HIGH): Военкор Котенок (RF) posts a graphic "Main news today (10.09.2025)", indicating continued information warfare efforts.
  • NEW: RF Drone Movement (Confidence: HIGH): Николаевский Ванёк (UAF) reports 4 "mopeds" (UAVs) flying from the sea towards Chornomorsk in pairs.
  • NEW: RF IO - Military Convergence (Confidence: HIGH): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF) claims increasing military exercises by those who may act against RF, framing them as a serious trend hidden behind "cooperation."
  • NEW: UAF Diplomatic Engagement (Confidence: HIGH): РБК-Україна (UAF) reports Zelenskiy spoke with European and NATO leaders, emphasizing a need for a joint shield and concrete solutions.
  • NEW: RF Tactical Map (Kharkiv) (Confidence: HIGH): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF) posts a tactical map for the Kharkiv direction, indicating continued RF focus and ongoing military activity.
  • NEW: Zelenskiy on Polish Drone Incursions (Clarification) (Confidence: HIGH): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF) reports Zelenskiy stating both "Gerbera" (decoy/older model) and combat "Shaheds" entered Poland, found in many towns and villages.
  • NEW: RF IO - US Chip Control (Confidence: HIGH): Alex Parker Returns (RF) posts a graphic claiming a US citizen murdered a Ukrainian refugee due to US authorities implanting a brain chip and controlling him. This is a highly conspiratorial IO piece aimed at discrediting the US and sowing distrust.
  • NEW: Nepalese Parliament Incident (Confidence: HIGH): Colonelcassad (RF) shares video of Nepalese parliament members fleeing by helicopter, with the building later partially burned, indicating ongoing instability in Nepal, which RF IO can leverage for narratives of global instability.
  • NEW: Netanyahu Statement on Qatar/Hamas (Confidence: HIGH): ТАСС (RF) reports Netanyahu accusing Qatar of "harboring terrorists" after strikes on Hamas leaders, indicating a hardening of Israeli stance and further regional tension, which RF IO can leverage.
  • NEW: RF Drone Strike on UAF Infantry (Confidence: HIGH): WarGonzo (RF) video shows drone footage of explosions targeting UAF infantry in wooded areas, confirming continued RF tactical drone operations.
  • NEW: Slovakian FM on Drones (Confidence: HIGH): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF) reports Slovakian Foreign Minister Juraj Blanár stating he hopes Russian drones were meant for Ukraine, not Poland, and claims Blanár "frankly dislikes Ukrainians." This is an IO piece highlighting perceived anti-Ukrainian sentiment within a NATO/EU country, which can be exploited by RF.
  • NEW: Chechen Cement Plant Construction (Confidence: LOW): Kadyrov_95 (RF) video shows an inspection of a cement plant under construction in Chechnya. No direct military significance, but indicates domestic development efforts, likely for internal IO to project economic progress.
  • NEW: RF Air Defense Claims (Belgorod) (Confidence: HIGH): Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF) and Старше Эдды (RF) share video claiming Belgorod endured another day of massive UAF UAV attacks, with 5 civilians injured, but no fatalities. They credit RF forces for preventing greater damage. The video depicts successful interception of a drone.
  • NEW: Netherlands F-35s Shot Down RF Drones (Confidence: HIGH): Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UAF) reports Dutch F-35 fighters shot down Russian "Gerbera" UAVs over Poland using AIM-9X missiles.
  • NEW: RF IO - "Good Deeds" (Confidence: LOW): Alex Parker Returns (RF) posts two photo messages with cynical captions about "good deeds" and "friendship of peoples," likely for domestic social commentary or to imply hypocrisy among opponents.
  • NEW: Kit Kellogg to Poland (Confidence: HIGH): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF) reports Kit Kellogg was heading to Poland when Russian UAVs invaded, citing CNN. This potentially indicates high-level US military/diplomatic presence during the escalation, which RF IO could frame as US interference.
  • NEW: RF PVO Claims (Confidence: HIGH): ТАСС (RF) reports RF MOD claims PVO forces shot down 23 Ukrainian UAVs over Belgorod, Kursk, and Samara Oblasts between 14:00 and 20:00 MSK.
  • NEW: Nepalese Prison Break (Confidence: HIGH): Colonelcassad (RF) reports nearly 14,000 people escaped prisons in Nepal due to unrest, linking it to broader instability, which RF IO can leverage.
  • NEW: RF Drone Intercept (Mykolaiv) (Confidence: HIGH): Николаевский Ванёк (UAF) reports a drone heading towards Balovne/Matveevka (Mykolaiv Oblast) was intercepted ("minus").
  • NEW: RF IO - "Last Crusade" (Confidence: MEDIUM): WarGonzo (RF) posts a photo of a formal gathering with religious figures and military personnel, captioned "The Last Crusade," likely for internal IO to frame the conflict in religious or existential terms, garnering support.
  • NEW: UAF FPV Drone Strike (Pokrovsk) (Confidence: HIGH): STERNENKO (UAF) video shows an FPV drone strike on a Russian motorcyclist on the Pokrovsk direction by operators of the 55th OABr, confirming UAF tactical drone effectiveness.
  • NEW: Zelenskiy on Drone Attack on Poland (Confidence: HIGH): РБК-Україна (UAF) shares a video of Zelenskiy suggesting the drone attack on Poland could be part of Russian-Belarusian exercises.
  • NEW: RF IO - Commander Threats (Confidence: HIGH): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF) reports on a video where Russian commanders use threats of "physical annihilation" against their own soldiers, indicating severe internal discipline and morale issues.
  • NEW: RF Ground Forces Activity (South Donetsk) (Confidence: HIGH): Colonelcassad (RF) provides an update on the situation in the South Donetsk direction, indicating ongoing RF ground force operations in that area.

• Friendly Forces (UAF):

  • Ground Forces: UAF maintains a defensive posture across multiple axes, repelling 130 RF attacks in the past 24 hours (10 on Kupiansk, 15 on Lyman, 20 on Bakhmut, 15 on Avdiivka, 18 on Marinka, 10 on Shakhtarske, 12 on Zaporizhzhia, 10 on Kherson). UAF repelled 10 RF attacks on Kupiansk, 15 on Lyman, 20 on Bakhmut, 15 on Avdiivka, 18 on Marinka, 10 on Shakhtarske, 12 on Zaporizhzhia, and 10 on Kherson. This indicates sustained defensive capacity despite RF pressure. UAF counter-drone operations are ongoing, with the 3rd Assault Brigade shooting down 609 UAVs in August. UAF Falcon Squad damaged an RF TOS-1A on the Vovchansk axis. UAF destroyed an RF BM-27 Uragan MLRS with an FPV drone. UAF captured an RF soldier in the Serebryansk forest. UAF reports detecting and eliminating RF DRG in Dobropillia. STERNENKO (UAF) video shows FPV drone attacks on RF BMPs and dismounted personnel on the Pokrovsk direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF) reports UAF drones and remote mining engaged an RF infantry group in Sumy Oblast.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF Ground Combat (Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України): UAF drone operators from "Spartan" brigade are liquidating small RF infantry groups on the Pokrovsk direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a Russian breakthrough attempt in Sumy Oblast was thwarted by UAF drones and remote mining. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України video shows successful drone strikes on RF positions, including vehicles and personnel.
  • NEW: UAF Drone Strike (Dnipropetrovsk): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF) video shows a drone strike near power lines, resulting in an explosion, smoke, and what appears to be a downed drone/munition and casualties. Text overlay implies "Several Russian infantrymen were connected to the power grid 'good Russians'", suggesting successful tactical engagements by UAF drones.
  • NEW: UAF Reconnaissance on Donetsk: Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF) reports Azov reconnaissance footage from GoPro clearing Donetsk region of occupiers, with graphic content (18+). This indicates continued UAF offensive/clearing operations in Donetsk.
  • NEW: UAF Intercept of RF Fiber-Optic Drones: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF) and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF) videos report the successful destruction of a group ambush of three Russian fiber-optic drones by the "Lazary" National Guard unit (fishfpv) near a logistics route. This confirms UAF is effectively countering advanced RF drone systems.
  • NEW: UAF FPV Drone Strike (Pokrovsk) (Confidence: HIGH): STERNENKO (UAF) video shows an FPV drone strike on a Russian motorcyclist on the Pokrovsk direction by operators of the 55th OABr, confirming UAF tactical drone effectiveness.
  • Air Defense: UAF Air Force reports 413 of 458 enemy targets were shot down/suppressed (386 enemy UAVs and 27 cruise/guided aerial missiles (Kh-101, Kalibr, Kh-59/69)) during a massive overnight attack involving 415 drones and over 40 missiles across 15 oblasts. This is a high interception rate given the scale of the attack, but still allowed significant damage. PVO of the 3rd Assault Brigade shot down 609 UAVs in August. One enemy drone was shot down over Chernivtsi Oblast. 8 RF UAVs were destroyed over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF Air Force reports PVO active in Rivne Oblast during the massive attack.
  • NEW: RF Drone Intercept (Mykolaiv) (Confidence: HIGH): Николаевский Ванёк (UAF) reports a drone heading towards Balovne/Matveevka (Mykolaiv Oblast) was intercepted ("minus").
  • Naval Capabilities: UAF confirmed a USV attack on Novorossiysk.
  • Diplomatic/International Engagement: Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, all independently confirm information about the invasion of Russian strike drones into Polish territory, emphasizing the intentional nature and escalation. Zelenskiy made a high-level diplomatic call to Poland, UK, Italy, and NATO. Ukraine is calling for Poland to help shoot down Russian targets over Ukrainian territory.
  • NEW: UAF Sanctions Synchronization: РБК-Україна (UAF) reports Ukraine has synchronized sanctions against Russia with Great Britain.
  • NEW: Ramstein Meeting: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UAF) posts photos from the 30th Ramstein meeting, indicating ongoing international coordination and support for UAF.
  • NEW: Zelenskiy-Von der Leyen Call: Zelenskiy / Official (UAF) posts photos from a call with President Ursula von der Leyen, confirming continued high-level diplomatic engagement.
  • NEW: UAF Diplomatic Engagement (Confidence: HIGH): РБК-Україна (UAF) reports Zelenskiy spoke with European and NATO leaders, emphasizing a need for a joint shield and concrete solutions.
  • NEW: Zelenskiy on Polish Drone Incursions (Clarification) (Confidence: HIGH): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF) reports Zelenskiy stating both "Gerbera" (decoy/older model) and combat "Shaheds" entered Poland, found in many towns and villages.
  • NEW: Zelenskiy Video on Polish Drone Incursion (Confidence: HIGH): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Zelenskiy / Official, and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UAF) all share an identical video of Zelenskiy discussing Russian drone movements towards the Polish border, stating it was intentional and involved both Ukrainian and Belarusian territory, with almost two dozen drones entering Poland. He notes the difficulty in coping with this calculated Russian activity.
  • NEW: Zelenskiy on Drone Attack on Poland (Confidence: HIGH): РБК-Україна (UAF) shares a video of Zelenskiy suggesting the drone attack on Poland could be part of Russian-Belarusian exercises.
  • IO: UAF is actively using social media channels (e.g., STERNENKO, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Зеленский / Official) to report on RF attacks, BDA, and UAF successes, to counter RF narratives, and to raise funds. UAF is actively criticizing NATO's lower success rate in shooting down drones compared to Ukraine, for IO. UAF is also highlighting cost inefficiencies for NATO in shooting down cheaper RF drones with expensive missiles. UAF is leveraging Trump's comments on the Polish drone attack for IO. UAF IO is also highlighting internal RF corruption and military misconduct.
  • NEW: UAF IO on RF Casualties: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF) posts several photo messages claiming "For Russia, entire families are already dying: the entire military dynasty of the Gorbatovs followed the road to nowhere. Husband, son, and finally mother reunited to say 'thank you' to Putin." This is a UAF IO piece aimed at demoralizing RF forces and domestic audiences by highlighting heavy family losses.
  • NEW: Slovakian FM on Drones (Confidence: HIGH): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF) reports Slovakian Foreign Minister Juraj Blanár stating he hopes Russian drones were meant for Ukraine, not Poland, and claims Blanár "frankly dislikes Ukrainians." This is an IO piece highlighting perceived anti-Ukrainian sentiment within a NATO/EU country.
  • NEW: UAF IO - Omega Special Forces (Confidence: HIGH): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF) shares a photo message promoting the "Omega" Special Purpose Center, highlighting their strength "not only on the battlefield, but also in sports arenas." This is a UAF IO piece aimed at boosting morale and promoting military service.
  • NEW: UAF IO - Shargorod School Murders (Confidence: LOW): РБК-Україна (UAF) reports on a suspect facing life imprisonment for the murder of schoolchildren in Shargorod. While a serious crime, this is domestic news without direct military intelligence implications unless linked to collaborators or occupation.
  • NEW: UAF IO - Siijarto "Bloody Rubles" (Confidence: HIGH): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF) shares a photo message "Сіярто відпрацьовує криваві рублі." (Szijjártó is working off bloody rubles.) This is a UAF IO piece directly accusing Hungarian FM Szijjártó of being a Russian proxy, aimed at countering RF narratives and highlighting perceived collaboration with the aggressor.
  • NEW: UAF IO - Russian Commander Threats (Confidence: HIGH): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF) shares a video with a caption highlighting severe morale and discipline issues within RF forces, including commanders threatening their own soldiers. This is a UAF IO piece aimed at demoralizing RF forces and highlighting their brutality.

1.4. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (Intelligence Gap)

• What are the precise locations and compositions of RF forces in the 152 districts claimed by RF MoD to have been struck?
• What is the confirmed BDA of the Neptune missile and HIMARS rockets claimed shot down by RF PVO?
• What are the specific units and their current dispositions being redeployed by Poland to the Belarusian border?
• What is the status and capabilities of the alleged "Zhuk-Boris" system that was "dismantled"?
• What is the timeline and scale of the alleged construction of new bases near Minsk for "Oreshnik" missiles, and what are the specific capabilities and readiness of these missile systems?
• What is the direct impact of the reported civilian unrest in Paris on French military readiness or its ability to support Ukraine?
• What is the specific BDA of any damage caused by the alleged "Gerbera drones" in Poland as mentioned by Janus Putkonen?
• What is the full context and actual impact of the reported internal military misconduct and lack of judicial action within Russia, as highlighted by the "military beat a father of many children to death" report?
• What is the specific purpose and content of the RF MOD "progress report" for 10 SEP 25?
• What is the specific BDA of the "Molniya" drones reportedly destroyed by UAF (STERNENKO)?
• What is the precise type, payload, and operational range of the FPV drone used in the Prymorske attack?
• What is the overall scale and effectiveness of RF's "humanitarian aid" efforts in the SVO zone, beyond IO? Does it indicate specific areas of civilian distress or RF control?
• What specific changes have been made to the POW personal cabinet, and how will this affect intelligence collection from POWs and their families?
• What is the scale and effectiveness of the DShV's rehabilitation program, and what resources are being provided to former POWs?
• What are the short- and long-term implications of Kazakova's appointment on RF migration policy, particularly concerning occupied territories or new citizens?
• What are the broader societal implications within Russia of the reported child abuse case, particularly on public trust in law enforcement and social stability during wartime?
• What are the specific details and priorities of the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers' approved program of actions for 2025, and how will it impact military-civilian resource allocation?
• What actionable intelligence was gained from the SBU's successful operation against FSB agents in Kyiv?
• What are the specific findings and political implications of Slovakian PM Fico's desired "objective investigation" into the Polish drone incident?
• What is the exact cause of the gas train explosion in Lithuania, and is there any evidence of sabotage or a link to the ongoing conflict?
• What are the specific objectives and target audience of the RF MFA statement regarding Polish drone incursions, and what is its expected impact on international perception?
• What are the specific terms and scope of the memorandum of cooperation between Zaporizhzhia OVA and "World Relief," and what immediate impact will it have on humanitarian efforts?
• What is the specific content of the "Bryansk Heroes" program, and what is the broader purpose of highlighting such regional initiatives for RF domestic morale and recruitment?
• What are the precise locations and types of targets that drone operators of the "SIGNUM" battalion are interdicting on the Lyman direction, and what is the confirmed BDA of their operations?
• What is the confirmed BDA of the drone footage and smoke plumes on the Zaporizhzhia front, and what specific RF units or targets are involved? (Confidence: HIGH)
• What is the specific data and methodology used by Mishustin to claim "unemployment in Russia remains at a historical minimum," and what is its actual economic impact on military recruitment or resource availability? (Confidence: HIGH)
• What are the specific criteria and implications for Russian citizens with income below 43,000 rubles being recognized as "poor," and how might this affect social stability or support for the war? (Confidence: HIGH)
• What is the full BDA and impact of the drone fragments found in 10 locations in Poland, particularly their type, origin, and intended targets? (Confidence: HIGH)
• What is the full context and actual impact of Zelensky's new sanctions against Russia's military-industrial complex? (Confidence: HIGH)
• What is the source and full context of the "Congress in the USA" quote used by RF IO, and what is its actual impact on US public opinion regarding aid to Ukraine? (Confidence: HIGH)
• What is the full context and impact of the kidnapping of a serviceman from a military unit in Odesa Oblast, including the identity of the perpetrators and any recovered intelligence? (Confidence: HIGH)
• What is the tactical significance of the drone attack on a military/industrial facility in Crimea, specifically what elements of the Pantsir-S1 system were allegedly bypassed, and what is the confirmed BDA? (Confidence: HIGH)
• What are the specific metrics and sources used by the BBC to assess NATO's drone interception success rate compared to Ukraine's, and how does this impact inter-alliance perceptions? (Confidence: HIGH)
• What are the specific items and quantities being requested in the fundraising effort for the Artillery Reconnaissance Battery (BUAR), and does this indicate a systemic gap in official UAF supply? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: BDA of UAF Drone Strike (Dnipropetrovsk): What is the precise target and BDA of the UAF drone strike near power lines in Dnipropetrovsk, and are the claimed RF infantry casualties confirmed? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: Impact of UAF Sanctions Synchronization: What is the immediate and long-term impact of Ukraine synchronizing sanctions with Great Britain on specific RF entities or sectors? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: CyberBoroshno Vacancy Significance: What is the military intelligence significance, if any, of CyberBoroshno posting a Python/Django Developer vacancy? Does it indicate specific cyber warfare capabilities being sought? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: Detailed Polish-Belarusian Drone Contact: What were the specific details of the contact between Warsaw and Minsk regarding UAV airspace violations? What information was exchanged, and what were the outcomes? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: Specifics of Slovakian PM Fico's Statement: What is the full context of Slovakian PM Fico's statement on the Polish drone incursion, and what impact could it have on NATO unity or the investigation? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: BDA of STERNENKO Explosions Video: What is the specific target and BDA of the drone strike on a vehicle in STERNENKO's video? What type of vehicle was it, and what was its military significance? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: Alex Parker Returns Gambling Ad: What is the military intelligence significance, if any, of Alex Parker Returns posting a gambling advertisement? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: Poddubny IO Impact: What is the actual impact of Poddubny's IO narrative on European public opinion or political decision-making regarding aid to Ukraine? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: Olexiy Biloshitskyi Yarova Video Details: What specific actions are the patrol police taking in Yarova, and how does the drone mentioned nearby affect their operations or civilian safety? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: Detailed Israeli Strikes in Yemen: What are the specific targets and BDA of the confirmed Israeli strikes on Houthi targets in Sanaa, Yemen? What is the broader geopolitical impact? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: RF Drone Group Composition (Poltava): What is the estimated composition and capabilities of the RF UAV group heading towards Poltava? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: Impact of Von der Leyen Statement: What is the immediate and long-term impact of Ursula von der Leyen's call for the EU to abandon Russian energy on Russian war financing? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA Art Meaning: What is the "hidden meaning" of the stylized graphic art from ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA, and what is its intended IO effect? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: NGP Razvedka on Lithuanian Preparedness: What is the actual military preparedness of Lithuania compared to RF perceptions, and what specific capabilities are they referring to? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: Coerced Contract Signing Impact (RF): What is the scale and systemic nature of conscripts being coerced into signing military contracts, and what are the morale and desertion implications? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: UAF GSU on Civilian Casualties (Specifics): What are the precise locations and confirmed casualties associated with the damaged civilian infrastructure depicted in the GSU photos? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: Trump's Reaction on Polish Drones: What is the specific language and full context of Trump's reaction to the drone attack on Polish territory, and what impact could it have on US policy or NATO unity? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: RF FSB Activity (Kherson) Details: What are the specific "extremist activities" the detained Russian citizen in Kherson was accused of, and what information was recovered from his Telegram channels? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: UAF POW Staff Council Scope: What are the specific goals and anticipated functions of the Public Council of the Coordination Staff for POWs? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: Zaporizhzhia Drone Damage BDA: What is the specific BDA to the apartment building in Zaporizhzhia and the number of injured? What type of UAV was used? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: RF Claims UAF Reserves for Vovchansk (Verification): Is there independent verification of RF claims regarding UAF reserve movements to Vovchansk? What is the estimated strength of these reserves? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: Operatyvnyi ZSU Meme Significance: What is the military or political significance, if any, of the "old man" meme posted by Operatyvnyi ZSU? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: Berdychiv Missile Strike BDA: What are the specific targets and BDA of the missile strikes in Berdychiv, and what types of missiles were used? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: Fighterbomber Military Display Purpose: What is the primary purpose of Fighterbomber's military-related item display? Is it for recruitment, morale, or propaganda? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: RF Drone Groups Towards Kryvyi Rih (Composition): What is the estimated composition and capabilities of the RF UAV groups heading towards Kryvyi Rih? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: Lithuanian Defense Minister's Statement Impact: What is the diplomatic impact of the Lithuanian Defense Minister considering the drone incursions accidental, and how does this align with other NATO responses? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: Два майора "Soldier's Daily Life" Context: What is the specific context or message intended by the "Soldier's Daily Life" photo series from Два майора? Is it for morale, recruitment, or propaganda? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: Воин DV Special Forces Action BDA: What is the specific BDA of the special forces action shown in Воин DV's video? What types of equipment or personnel were destroyed? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: Kadyrov_95 Sumy Artillery Strike BDA: What type of Ukrainian self-propelled artillery system was hit in Sumy, and what is the confirmed BDA? What unit was it from? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: Igor Artamonov Agricultural Complex Relevance: What is the military or strategic relevance, if any, of a new agricultural complex in Lipetsk, beyond its civilian purpose? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: Два майора "Deep Rear" Interpretation: What is the specific social or military message conveyed by "Магазин. Глубокий тыл."? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: UAF on Polish Drone Cost (Analysis): Is the cost analysis presented by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS accurate regarding "Gerbera" decoys vs. AIM-120C-7 missiles? What are the implications for NATO air defense spending? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: Dnipropetrovsk OVA Nikopol Attacks BDA: What is the specific BDA (number of damaged structures, type of damage, casualties if any) in Nikopol and the mentioned communities from FPV drone and artillery attacks? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: Zaporizhzhia Attack Casualties Details: What are the names and conditions of the two injured people in Zaporizhzhia, and what caused their injuries? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: Voenkor Kotenok on SVO Benefits Channel Purpose: What is the purpose and target audience of the "SVO Benefits" official channel, and does it indicate specific welfare efforts or recruitment initiatives? (Confidence: HIGH)
• NEW: Colonelcassad Berdychiv Missile Strike Details: What is the specific BDA and targets of the cruise missile strikes in Berdychiv, and what types of cruise missiles were used? (Confidence: HIGH)
  • NEW: RBK-Ukraina Dnipropetrovsk Energy Object BDA: What specific energy object was hit in Dnipropetrovsk, and what is the extent of the damage and power outage impact? (Confidence: HIGH)
  • NEW: Operatsiya Z on RF MFA Statement Impact: What is the likely impact of RF MFA's denial statement on international perceptions and diplomatic relations with Poland? (Confidence: HIGH)
  • NEW: TASS on KTK Payment Relevance: What is the military or strategic relevance of KTK's pre-trial payment for environmental damage? (Confidence: HIGH)
  • NEW: UAF IO on Berdychiv Collaborator Impact: What is the intended outcome of UAF's IO effort to identify and expose a TikTok user ("Slava from Berdychiv") who allegedly rejoices at Russian missile strikes? (Confidence: HIGH)
  • NEW: Два майора on Kursk Corruption Implications: What are the broader implications of the corruption charges against the former Kursk Oblast Governor for RF border defenses and military procurement? (Confidence: HIGH)
  • NEW: STERNENKO on Kyiv Council Impact: What is the potential impact of the Kyiv Council possibly disrupting the protection of Protasov Yar on local morale or urban planning, if any military relevance? (Confidence: HIGH)
  • NEW: Ramstein Meeting Outcomes: What are the specific outcomes, commitments, and new aid packages discussed or agreed upon during the 30th Ramstein meeting? (Confidence: HIGH)
  • NEW: Basurin on "Debt Payment" IO Purpose: What is the specific message or narrative Basurin is trying to convey with the "Debt is paid with payment" IO piece? (Confidence: HIGH)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad on RF MoD Progress Report Details: What are the specific claims and details within the RF MoD's progress report for September 10, 2025, and how do they compare to independent assessments? (Confidence: HIGH)
  • NEW: Anatoliy Shtefan on Demobilization IO Purpose: What is the specific propaganda message of the "successfully demobilized" composite image? (Confidence: HIGH)
  • NEW: Zelenskiy-Von der Leyen Call Outcomes: What were the key discussion points and outcomes of the call between President Zelenskiy and President von der Leyen? (Confidence: HIGH)
  • NEW: RF Propaganda on US Aid (Confidence: HIGH): Рыбарь (RF) posts a photo message with "Not what they wanted" and images related to US politics, indicating RF IO is actively shaping narratives around US aid.
  • NEW: RF Soldier Propaganda (Confidence: HIGH): Два майора (RF) shares a video showcasing a soldier in a green t-shirt with a double-headed eagle patch, likely for internal morale or recruitment.
  • NEW: UAF Reconnaissance on Donetsk (Confidence: HIGH): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF) reports Azov reconnaissance footage from GoPro clearing Donetsk region of occupiers, with graphic content (18+).
  • NEW: RF IO on Polish Incursion (Confidence: HIGH): Zvиздец Мангусту (RF) comments that NATO's reaction to Russian drones in Polish airspace was predictable, indicating RF IO is downplaying the severity of the incident.
  • NEW: RF IO on US Politics (Confidence: HIGH): Alex Parker Returns (RF) shares a screenshot of a social media post with a quote attributed to "American politics bulldozer" announcing "World War III has begun," linking it to Poland. This is clear RF IO amplifying alarmist narratives.
  • NEW: RF Propaganda Map - Zaporizhzhia (Confidence: HIGH): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF) posts a propaganda map with superimposed video clips and text, indicating military operations on the Zaporizhzhia direction.
  • NEW: RF IO - Chechen Leader Reflection (Confidence: HIGH): Alex Parker Returns (RF) video features a woman reflecting on her acquaintance with Dzhakhar Dudayev and his wife, a personal reflection used for IO purposes, potentially to create a narrative about Chechnya.
  • NEW: RF Reconnaissance UAV (Kherson) (Confidence: HIGH): MoD Russia video shows UAV reconnaissance detecting a camouflaged enemy artillery gun in a forest belt on the right bank of the Dnepr River in Kherson region.
  • NEW: RF Claims UAF Casualties (Dnipropetrovsk) (Confidence: HIGH): Colonelcassad (RF) posts photo messages claiming "Russian troops are grinding down the enemy: Forest strips near Dnipropetrovsk are covered with AFU corpses." This is a graphic RF IO claim about UAF losses.
  • NEW: Colonelcassad Drone Hunt (Confidence: HIGH): Colonelcassad (RF) shares two video messages from the 35th Army Group "Vostok" drone operators from Yekaterinoslavka, claiming they are "hunting enemy personnel." The video shows thermal imagery of explosions, suggesting successful targeting of UAF positions/personnel.
  • NEW: Два майора Geopolitical/Economic Summary (Confidence: HIGH): Два майора (RF) shares a video titled "❗️Выпуск 4❗️" which provides a fragmented narrative covering various geopolitical events and figures, including the SCO summit, interactions between world leaders (Putin, Xi Jinping, Modi, Trump), discussions on international relations, economic blocs like BRICS, and mentions of military parades and operations (specifically referencing a map of Ukraine with troop movements). This is RF IO for a broader geopolitical and economic audience.
  • NEW: Zelenskiy Diplomatic Engagement (Confidence: HIGH): Зеленский / Official (UAF), 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (UAF), and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (UAF) all post identical photo messages stating Zelenskiy spoke with Polish PM Donald Tusk, UK PM Keir Starmer, Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. This indicates a flurry of high-level diplomatic activity by Ukraine following the recent RF escalations.
  • NEW: UAF IO on RF Casualties (Confidence: HIGH): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF) posts several photo messages claiming "For Russia, entire families are already dying: the entire military dynasty of the Gorbatovs followed the road to nowhere. Husband, son, and finally mother reunited to say 'thank you' to Putin." This is a UAF IO piece aimed at demoralizing RF forces and domestic audiences by highlighting heavy family losses.
  • NEW: Captured RF Soldier Interrogation (Confidence: HIGH): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF) shares a video of a captured Russian soldier (Nestoranko Sergey, 110th Brigade) detailing his mobilization, personal background, and capture. This provides valuable HUMINT on RF conscription, morale, and POW treatment.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (Confidence: HIGH)

• Capabilities:
  • Sustained Ground Offensive with Massed Forces: RF demonstrates the capability for sustained, multi-axis ground offensives, with a primary effort on the Pokrovsk axis, achieving localized breakthroughs near Chynyshyn and Muravka, with claims of attempting a pincer movement on Novopavlovka. TASS reports RF forces are fighting in high-rise buildings in Krasnoarmeysk, demonstrating capability for urban combat exploitation. They are deploying new ground robotic systems ('Kur'er') for assault and mine-laying, and the "Veterok" fiber-optic drone for long-range precision strikes (25km range, 1000 supplied). TASS reports "Vostok" Group's destruction of an M119 howitzer and video of training with heavy machine guns, demonstrating ground combat capabilities. RF has also reinforced units in the Vovchansk area, indicating capability to sustain offensive pressure there. RF MOD claims destruction of UAF self-propelled artillery and APC on Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka direction, suggesting continued engagement capabilities. RF claims control of 1.5km of a UAF supply route in Kupyansk, indicating tactical interdiction capability. GSU reports of high-intensity, multi-directional ground assaults across at least seven major axes, repelling numerous UAF attacks (e.g., 20 attacks on Bakhmut direction). TASS reports UAV units of the Southern Grouping of Forces destroying three units of AFU armored vehicles, demonstrating ground targeting capabilities. WarGonzo's latest "Frontline Summary" provides tactical maps reinforcing RF ground capabilities across Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv fronts. TASS reports RF forces are capable of encircling UAF positions and eliminating personnel after refusal to surrender, as seen south of Kolodezi. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF special purpose brigades are capable of destroying Starlink antennas and UAF personnel. Воин DV video explicitly demonstrates RF drone operators effectively hunting UAF personnel, confirming advanced tactical drone capabilities for attrition. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF) reiterates control of a supply route in Kupyansk, confirming persistent ground interdiction capabilities. Народная милиция ДНР (RF) video demonstrates successful tactical drone attacks on UAF dugouts and PVDs, demonstrating RF's continued tactical ground attack capabilities with integrated drone support. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF) reports the production of experimental AM-17 assault rifles by Kalashnikov, indicating a sustained domestic small arms production capability. GSU reports provide updated granular detail on RF ground force activity across multiple axes (Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, South Slobozhansky, Kupyansk), reinforcing the capability for widespread and sustained ground pressure. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF) posts photo/video of ground combat on the Krasnoarmeysk direction and what appears to be an interrogated Ukrainian POW, reinforcing RF claims of advances and UAF personnel losses. Воин DV (RF) shares a video of RF Zapad grouping conducting medical evacuation training, demonstrating continued focus on personnel sustainment and readiness for combat. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Kotsnews confirm destruction of an AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery radar system on the Zaporizhzhia direction by RF strike UAVs. WarGonzo reports transfer of "Skvorets" drones and "Orbita" hardware/software complexes to RF forces from "United Russia," Central Bank of Social Technologies, and "Our Truth" foundation. Старше Эдды (RF) shares video of drone operators from 144th MSD destroying UAF personnel and equipment daily. Воин DV reports FPV drone of 69th Separate Brigade destroyed UAF transport and routed personnel. MoD Russia reports Northern Fleet conducted tactical marine infantry landing exercise in Arctic. STERNENKO (UAF) video shows FPV drone attacks on RF infantry fighting vehicle (BMP) and dismounted personnel on the Pokrovsk direction by the UMBRELLA 32nd Separate Mechanized Brigade using fiber-optic drones. Два майора (RF) reports aerial reconnaissance footage of explosions in a rural area on the Zaporizhzhia front, with thermal imagery, and an audio narration. Сили оборони Півдня України (UAF Southern Defense Forces) video shows a drone strike on a Russian assault group. Воин DV (RF) shows a new compilation of "Vostok" Group UAV operators destroying enemy automotive equipment.
  • NEW INTEL: Kadyrov_95 reports continued active work by the 78th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Sever-AKHMAT" to destroy enemy forces, indicating specific unit capabilities. Colonelcassad shares drone video of a TOS-1A + FAB strike on what appear to be Ukrainian positions, demonstrating combined arms/heavy firepower capabilities. WarGonzo shares drone footage of military vehicle engagement and personnel scattering, and other footage of soldiers operating drones and engaging targets, confirming tactical ground combat and drone integration. Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report UAF drone operators from "Spartan" brigade are liquidating small RF infantry groups on the Pokrovsk direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a Russian breakthrough attempt in Sumy Oblast was thwarted by UAF drones and remote mining, showing RF probing capabilities. RF MOD (TASS) claims RF Armed Forces hit temporary deployment points of Ukrainian armed formations and foreign mercenaries in 152 districts, indicating broad targeting capability against UAF and foreign elements.
  • NEW INTEL: RF MOD (MoD Russia): Provides a "progress report" as of 10 SEP 25. This implies an official update on claimed RF ground operations and successes.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (НгП раZVедка): Posts a tactical map with military markings. This indicates RF milbloggers are continuing to provide tactical updates on the ground situation.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (Colonelcassad): Posts a video titled "Donbas" showing a compilation of drone footage confirming RF reconnaissance, targeting, and strike operations against UAF equipment and personnel in the region. This reinforces ongoing RF ground and drone-supported combat in Donbas.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (Басурин о главном): Posts photo messages of individuals in Russian military uniforms with a map of Russia's Military Districts. This suggests ongoing military briefings and operations.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition): Video shows drone footage of explosions in agricultural fields on the Zaporizhzhia front, confirming ongoing RF engagements.
  • NEW: UAF Drone Strike (Dnipropetrovsk): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF) video shows a drone strike near power lines, resulting in an explosion, smoke, and what appears to be a downed drone/munition and casualties. Text overlay implies "Several Russian infantrymen were connected to the power grid 'good Russians'", suggesting RF infantry are operating in proximity to critical civilian infrastructure (power lines) and are vulnerable to UAF drone strikes.
  • NEW: Воин DV Special Forces Action: Воин DV (RF) shares a video titled "💥63 отдельная рота спецназа 35 армии группировки войск 'Восток' уничтожает живую силу противника," showing drone footage of an engagement in a wooded area with explosions and smoke. This confirms RF special forces are conducting direct action to attrit UAF personnel, likely in contested front-line areas.
  • NEW: Kadyrov_95 on Sumy Artillery Strike: Kadyrov_95 (RF) shares a video claiming "Group 'Sida' from the famous 'Aida' detachment of AHMAT special forces of the RF MoD successfully hit a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery system on the Sumy direction." The video shows aerial footage of a smoke plume and drone telemetry. This indicates RF special forces, specifically Chechen units, are capable of precision strikes against UAF artillery, likely using integrated drone assets for targeting.
  • NEW: Dnipropetrovsk OVA on Nikopol Attacks: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (UAF) posts photos of damage (dilapidated structures, damaged residential building, destroyed roof) in Nikopol district, stating "Enemy attacked the area mostly with FPV drones, also used artillery. Nikopol itself, Myrivska, Pokrovska, Marhanetska, Chervonohryhorivska communities were under attack." This confirms RF's combined arms capability in Dnipropetrovsk, utilizing both FPV drones and artillery against civilian areas.
  • NEW: RF Claims UAF Casualties (Dnipropetrovsk): Colonelcassad (RF) posts photo messages claiming "Russian troops are grinding down the enemy: Forest strips near Dnipropetrovsk are covered with AFU corpses." This is a graphic RF IO claim about UAF losses, suggesting continued ground combat capabilities and efforts to inflict high casualties.
  • NEW: Colonelcassad Drone Hunt (Confidence: HIGH): Colonelcassad (RF) shares two video messages from the 35th Army Group "Vostok" drone operators from Yekaterinoslavka, claiming they are "hunting enemy personnel." The video shows thermal imagery of explosions, suggesting successful targeting of UAF positions/personnel.
  • NEW: Два майора Geopolitical/Economic Summary (Confidence: HIGH): Два майора (RF) shares a video titled "❗️Выпуск 4❗️" which provides a fragmented narrative covering various geopolitical events and figures, including the SCO summit, interactions between world leaders (Putin, Xi Jinping, Modi, Trump), discussions on international relations, economic blocs like BRICS, and mentions of military parades and operations (specifically referencing a map of Ukraine with troop movements). This indicates RF's capability to integrate and disseminate a broad range of geopolitical information alongside military updates, likely for a wider audience than solely military.
  • NEW: RF Tactical Map (Kharkiv) (Confidence: HIGH): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF) posts a tactical map for the Kharkiv direction, indicating continued RF focus and ongoing military activity.
  • NEW: RF Drone Strike on UAF Infantry (Confidence: HIGH): WarGonzo (RF) video shows drone footage of explosions targeting UAF infantry in wooded areas, confirming continued RF tactical drone operations.
  • NEW: RF Ground Forces Activity (South Donetsk) (Confidence: HIGH): Colonelcassad (RF) provides an update on the situation in the South Donetsk direction, indicating ongoing RF ground force operations in that area.
  • Overwhelming Long-Range Strike & Air Presence: RF maintains overwhelming long-range strike capability (Iskander-K, Shaheds, KABs, cruise missiles), capable of massed and precision strikes against critical energy, industrial, and national C2 infrastructure. The deployment of Su-35S multirole fighters, Tu-95MS, and now a Tu-160 strategic bomber underscores their air power. Demonstrated capability to project drone threats into NATO airspace (Poland), directly threatening key logistical nodes (Rzeszów, Lublin, Warsaw). Demonstrated capability to launch a large volume of UAVs (up to 415 launched, 458 targets detected) in multi-directional attacks, including into new Western Ukrainian regions and towards NATO targets (Rzeszów, Lublin, Warsaw). RF has demonstrated a heightened capability for cross-border special forces operations, as seen by the "Anvar" unit activity in the Sumy/Chernihiv border zone. Demonstrated capability to conduct simultaneous cruise missile attacks on multiple axes (Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv Oblasts) in conjunction with ongoing drone strikes, now involving over 40 missiles simultaneously and targeting deep into Western Ukraine, including Lviv and Zakarpattia, with confirmed hits on civilian industrial objects in Vinnytsia. Rosaviatsiya head expresses confidence in the imminent supply of domestic MS-21 aircraft to Russian airlines, indicating a long-term strategic capability in domestic aviation production with potential dual-use applications. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms RF attacked with X-101, X-59, Kalibr, and Shaheds, reinforcing multi-platform strike capability. Confirmed civilian casualties and damage in Khmelnytskyi and Zhytomyr Oblasts from combined strikes further demonstrate the destructive capability. RBC-Ukraine video confirms significant damage to civilian industrial infrastructure in Vinnytsia and residential buildings from combined missile and drone attack, demonstrating the capability to cause widespread destruction. Зеленский / Official's report of 415 drones and over 40 missiles targeting 15 oblasts, demonstrating an unprecedented scale of attack and capability to overwhelm defenses. The reported damage to Lviv's industrial facilities and a large fire in Volyn further confirm this intent to degrade Ukraine's economic and logistical capacity. Операция Z (Voenkor Русской Весны) showcasing widespread smoke and destruction further confirms this intent for mass destruction. Air Force of Ukraine reporting KABs on the Donetsk direction and GSU reports aviation airstrikes at Olhivka (Kherson), confirming RF's intent to sustain air-to-ground strikes. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports intensive shelling of Belgorod and Belgorod region. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports Kramatorsk is under shelling again, indicating RF intent to continue targeting urban areas. Colonelcassad reports a Geranium strike in Cherkasy and Zhytomyr Oblasts on enemy military targets, and drone activity in Lviv Oblast, accompanied by videos showing flashes and explosions over Lviv at night, confirming continued deep strike capabilities against Western and Central Ukraine. Басурин о главном provides video of a Russian Buk-M1-2 surface-to-air missile system launching a missile, demonstrating RF air defense capabilities and confidence.
  • NEW INTEL: RF Ministry of Defense (TASS, MoD Russia, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Colonelcassad) confirms massive strikes on Ukrainian defense industry enterprises in Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, and Lviv Oblasts. TASS specifically claims hits on the Lviv Armored Plant and Lviv Aviation Plant, demonstrating capability to target specific high-value defense industry sites. UAF Air Force (Повітряні Сили ЗС України) reports launches of guided aerial bombs by RF tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. The claim by РБК-Україна of new military bases near Minsk, Belarus, capable of hosting Russian "Oreshnik" missiles (a new, advanced ballistic missile system) is a significant development, indicating a potential for RF to deploy next-generation strike capabilities from Belarusian territory, further enhancing their long-range strike options and increasing the threat to Western Ukraine and potentially NATO's eastern flank. TASS reports RF PVO claims 32 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over multiple Russian regions and the Black Sea (Belgorod, Kursk Oblasts, Krasnodar Krai, Black Sea), demonstrating continued air defense capabilities against UAF drones. TASS reports RF PVO claims 225 Ukrainian UAVs of aircraft type, one Neptune guided missile, and three HIMARS MLRS rockets were shot down over the past day, indicating a highly active and capable RF air defense.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine): Reports "Activity of enemy tactical aviation in the southeastern direction!", confirming continued RF air presence and strike capability.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (РБК-Україна): Posts photos with the caption "Russians covered Kramatorsk's central square, residential areas and market with drones." This indicates continued RF drone strike capabilities against civilian urban areas.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦) reports a 68-year-old man was injured by an FPV drone attack in Prymorske village, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This confirms RF's continued use of FPV drones against civilian targets.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine): Reports "Missile danger!" for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and "Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation to the north of Kharkiv Oblast!" This confirms ongoing and active RF air strike capabilities.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine): Reports "☄️ Загроза застосування балістичного озброєння зі північно-східного напрямку!" (Ballistic missile threat from the northeast!), "Ракета через Сумщину!" (Missile through Sumy region!), and "Ще ракета ➡️ на Сумщину!" (Another missile towards Sumy region!). These confirm RF's ongoing capability for ballistic and cruise missile strikes.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine): Reports "🛵 Ударний БпЛА ➡️ в напрямку Лебедина!" (Strike UAV towards Lebedyn!) and "БпЛА ➡️ в напрямку Чернігова!" (UAV towards Chernihiv!). This confirms RF's continued capability for strike UAV operations.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine): Reports "🛸 Ворожий розвідувальний БпЛА з акваторії Чорного моря ➡️ в напрямку Одещини! Залучено засоби для його збиття." (Hostile reconnaissance UAV from the Black Sea towards Odesa region! Assets engaged for its shootdown.), confirming RF's ISR capabilities.
  • NEW: RF Drone Group Towards Poltava: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Полтавщина: група БпЛА повз Диканьку ➡️ курсом на Полтаву." This confirms RF's continued capability to conduct drone operations deep into Ukrainian territory, targeting central regions.
  • NEW: Berdychiv Missile Strike: Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UAF) and Colonelcassad (RF) both share videos of missile strikes in Berdychiv, Zhytomyr Oblast, showing explosions and smoke plumes over residential areas. This confirms RF's capability to deliver cruise missile strikes deep into central Ukraine, affecting civilian areas.
  • NEW: RF Drone Groups Towards Kryvyi Rih: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and РБК-Україна (UAF) report "Декілька груп БпЛА ➡️ в напрямку Кривого Рогу." This confirms RF's capability to conduct multi-directional drone attacks, targeting major industrial centers like Kryvyi Rih.
  • NEW: RF Drone Towards Odesa: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Several groups of strike UAVs from Mykolaiv region ➡️ towards Odesa region." This confirms RF's continued capability for strike UAV operations against southern Ukraine.
  • NEW: RF Drone Towards Poltava (Sumy origin): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "🛵 Сумщина: БпЛА ➡️ курсом на Полтавщину." This confirms RF's capability to launch drones from border regions (Sumy) into deeper Ukrainian territory.
  • NEW: RBK-Ukraina on Dnipropetrovsk Energy Object: РБК-Україна (UAF) posts a photo message stating "😡 Russia hit an energy object in Dnipropetrovsk region with drones." This confirms RF's continued capability to target critical energy infrastructure with drones.
  • Adaptive FPV Drone Operations: RF is increasingly employing FPV drones for specialized tactical roles, including as FPV carriers, targeting communications, and combined FPV/TM mine operations. They are also utilizing larger drones like "Baba Yaga" for reconnaissance and targeting. RF military figures explicitly highlight the strategic importance and increased application of drones in current operations, particularly in achieving control over contested areas like the Serebryansky forestry. Colonelcassad reports FPV operators from the 68th Motor Rifle Division are actively engaging UAF in Kupyansk, indicating effective tactical FPV drone use in urban/contested areas. Colonelcassad's latest video demonstrates advanced FPV drone capabilities, including air-to-air drone combat by destroying a "Baba Yaga" drone, and using drones for artillery spotting, indicating significant adaptation and integration of drone warfare. Воин DV video explicitly demonstrates RF drone operators actively hunting enemy personnel with thermal imaging, showcasing highly integrated and effective tactical drone use. WarGonzo posts a video claiming "Baba Yaga" drone was liquidated on the Lyman direction, demonstrating continued RF capability to target and destroy large UAF ISR/strike drones. Народная милиция ДНР (RF) video demonstrates successful tactical drone attacks on UAF positions and PVDs, confirming effective FPV/tactical drone integration. Старше Эдды (RF) video shows daily destruction of UAF personnel and equipment by drone operators. Воин DV reports FPV drone of 69th Separate Brigade destroyed UAF transport and routed personnel, demonstrating continued tactical drone effectiveness against UAF ground forces. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" quotes a speaker who claims Russia has a significant advantage in FPV drones and EW over Ukraine, which, while a UAF source, reinforces the assessment of RF capabilities. STERNENKO (UAF) video shows FPV drone attacks on RF infantry fighting vehicle (BMP) and dismounted personnel on the Pokrovsk direction by the UMBRELLA 32nd Separate Mechanized Brigade using fiber-optic drones. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF) video shows UAF drones detecting and engaging a RF infantry group in Sumy Oblast, relying on stealth before drone detection.
  • NEW INTEL: WarGonzo shares a video with the caption "New generation of drug traffickers prefers UAVs," which, despite the unusual context, indicates RF awareness and potential use of small UAVs for various purposes. WarGonzo also shares drone footage of soldiers operating drones and engaging targets, demonstrating continued tactical drone integration.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (STERNENKO): Posts a video with the caption "Another destroyed 'Molniya' and lives saved with your help!" showing a Ukrainian drone (AIR SS) flying over fields. This implies successful UAF counter-drone operations, potentially against RF 'Molniya' drones, thus affirming RF's continued reliance on drones and UAF's counter-capabilities.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition): Video shows drone footage of explosions in agricultural fields on the Zaporizhzhia front, confirming ongoing RF engagements.
  • NEW: Dnipropetrovsk OVA on Nikopol Attacks: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (UAF) posts photos of damage in Nikopol district, stating "Enemy attacked the area mostly with FPV drones, also used artillery." This confirms RF's continued and extensive use of FPV drones in tactical engagements against civilian areas, demonstrating their widespread deployment and integration into frontline operations.
  • NEW: UAF FPV Drone Strike (Pokrovsk) (Confidence: HIGH): STERNENKO (UAF) video shows an FPV drone strike on a Russian motorcyclist on the Pokrovsk direction by operators of the 55th OABr, confirming continued RF reliance on ground mobility and their vulnerability to UAF FPV drones.
  • Persistent IO and Cyber Operations: RF maintains a robust capability for multi-layered information warfare, including rapid adaptation to new narratives, highly inflammatory accusations, and efforts to sow discord within Ukraine and among Western partners. Claims of RF cyberattacks against the Czech Republic ahead of parliamentary elections indicate a continued and expanding capability for cyber warfare against NATO members/partners. TASS reports MinDIGITS developing regulations for sim-boxes, suggesting capability to manage large numbers of SIM cards for IO or other operations. TASS interview with Benjamin Reed, an alleged US mercenary, aims to discredit foreign fighters and paint a grim picture of UAF battlefield conditions. TASS is capable of publishing reports on UAF personnel losses, such as the claim of hundreds missing from the 80th Air Assault Brigade. TASS reports Kartapolov's (RF) claims of the West creating new tensions at RF borders (Finland, Moldova, Baltics) to deflect attention and project external threat. Новости Москвы pushing "beige moms" narrative indicates continued internal social commentary as ann IO tool. The high claim of 122 drones destroyed by RF PVO (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ASTRA, Басурин о главном, Colonelcassad) is a clear propaganda effort to project strength and deflect from their own large-scale attacks. TASS reports on a military court sentencing a Moscow resident for recruiting for the "Russian Volunteer Corps," demonstrating capability to use legal measures as part of IO to deter participation in pro-Ukrainian formations. Операция Z (RF) reports Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs is demanding Western countries shoot down drones over its territory, which RF is using to frame UAF as dependent and demanding, a clear IO tactic. TASS reports FSB prevented an assassination in Izhevsk by Ukrainian special services, demonstrating RF counter-intelligence capabilities and framing Ukraine as a terrorist actor. Рыбарь (Rybar) political infographics on Moldovan public opinion indicate RF capability to conduct political IO targeted at neighboring states. Басурин о главном (Basurin on the main) posts multiple graphics analyzing the Polish drone incident, showcasing RF capability to generate rapid, multi-faceted IO narratives questioning Western responses and framing events in RF's favor. ТАСС (RF) reports that the Interior Ministry has announced responsibility for the transfer of subscriber data, indicating RF capability to control and monitor telecommunications and potentially leverage this for IO or internal security. ТАСС (RF) reports Mishustin reappointed Mikhail Piotrovsky as Hermitage Director, indicating RF capability to maintain cultural institutions and project stability, which can contribute to internal IO. Новости Москвы (RF) posts 36,000 marriages in Moscow this summer, a 10-year record, an IO effort to project normalcy and societal well-being. Новости Москвы (RF) posts a map depicting gasoline shortages in Russian regions, which is a rare, negative self-reporting that could inadvertently highlight vulnerabilities or be a carefully managed narrative about overcoming challenges. ТАСС (RF) reports that the majority of migrant children seeking education in Russian schools cannot be enrolled, showcasing RF's capability to implement and enforce domestic social policies, which can have IO implications regarding national identity and social order. ТАСС (RF) reports police in Paris detained over 60 people during demonstrations on 10 SEP, indicating internal security challenges in a Western nation, likely for IO purposes. Alex Parker Returns (RF) amplifies a Reuters report that NATO does not consider the Polish drone incident an "attack," demonstrating RF's capability to quickly disseminate information that de-escalates the situation from a NATO perspective, serving their IO objectives. Colonelcassad (RF) posts a photo with a caption mocking Polish claims of discovering a "Gerbera" decoy drone in central Poland after it supposedly "miraculously" bypassed NATO air defense, showing RF's capability to employ mocking and dismissive IO against NATO's response. Рыбарь (RF) shares a graphic titled "Unemployed Ukrainians will go to the front," with commentary from "Warsaw Mermaid," demonstrating RF's capability to create highly targeted propaganda aimed at demoralizing Ukrainian citizens and influencing Polish public opinion by portraying Ukraine as desperate for manpower. ASTRA (RF) reports on a Samara Oblast Governor deleting his Telegram channel after a conflict, which is domestic news but shows the dynamic nature of information control and personal influence within the RF information space. Басурин о главном (RF) shares a video of an RF soldier with a juice carton and a vehicle with a swastika-like emblem, which is an IO effort that may attempt to humanize RF soldiers or, more disturbingly, subtly normalize extremist symbols. Colonelcassad (RF) posts a screenshot of Pavel Durov (Telegram founder) recognizing Telegram's use in coordinating protests against Macron in France, highlighting RF's capability to leverage Western social media platforms for political destabilization efforts in NATO countries. Kotsnews (RF) posts a video with a caption claiming "Belarusians saved Poland from a UAV attack," indicating an IO effort to portray Belarus as a benevolent actor and to further muddy the waters regarding the origin and intent of the drone incursions. TASS reports new Syrian authorities will arrive in Moscow for the Russian-Arab summit, indicating continued diplomatic outreach from RF. Басурин о главном is actively circulating a series of photo messages claiming Zelenskiy's statements about RF aviation bomb strikes on Yarova during pension payouts are "fake," reinforcing RF denial of war crimes. Colonelcassad reports Belarusian Chief of General Staff Pavel Muraveyko stated that several unidentified drones lost course and were neutralized by Belarusian air defense, and that Polish and Lithuanian air defense were informed. This is an official Belarusian statement on the drone incursions, attempting to provide a deniable narrative. Операция Z (RF) amplifies Kaja Kallas's statement, framing her as "hysterical" for declaring drone incursions an "intentional Russian attack," demonstrating RF's capability to mock and discredit Western leaders. Старше Эдды (RF milblogger) explicitly links Israeli strikes to potential retaliatory strikes on Rzeszów, and mocks NATO's response to drone incursions, openly advocating for escalation, demonstrating RF milblogger's capability to push aggressive and provocative narratives in the information space, leveraging international events. ТАСС reports a criminal case has been opened against footballer Fyodor Smolov for a fight in a Moscow cafe, indicating internal law enforcement actions. ТАСС reports schools in Belgorod and Belgorod district have moved to remote learning due to UAF attacks, serving RF IO to portray UAF as targeting civilian infrastructure and to justify RF actions. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF) reports on a college collecting bicycles for wounded transport carts, which is a localized, grassroots support effort, possibly indicating resource gaps. Новости Москвы reports Zoom might be blocked soon. Два майора mocks Polish resistance to RF troop entry into Ukraine. TASS reports Alexey Markov appointed new RF Consul General in NY. TASS reports temporary restrictions at Gelendzhik airport. Новости Москвы reports high activity in Moscow-City tower after Apple presentation. Новости Москвы reports new tram line without contact network opened in Moscow. Север.Реалии reports list of available websites during internet shutdown expanded to include banks, betting shops, and propaganda media. Colonelcassad posts video of FSB apprehending individual in Izhevsk, claiming agent of Ukrainian military intelligence. Операция Z reports Macron "resolutely condemned" drones in Poland, promising NATO consultations, demonstrating RF's rapid amplification of Western responses for IO. Alex Parker Returns video "В Польше хорошо" is likely an IO effort to contrast Ukraine with perceived Polish "stability." Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video claiming NATO does not consider UAV incident an "attack," a rapid IO spin to downplay the severity of incursions. Два майора shares multiple videos of civil unrest in France, likely to highlight internal Western instability. WarGonzo frames drone incursions as "UFO? No, Geraniums! Poland scared by UAV raid, NATO in thought," reflecting a dismissive and mocking IO narrative. Alex Parker Returns' image "Просто напомню, что в Киеве..." serves as IO highlighting Kyiv's perceived infrastructure stagnation. ТАСС reports Vance's statement on Trump's economic isolation stance. ТАСС reports Peskov did not comment on the drone incident in Poland and that Poland did not request contact. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo (possibly satirical) with a religious figure, with the caption "Тревожно." This is likely an an IO piece intended to sow fear or uncertainty, indicating centralized C2 for domestic psychological operations. Оперативний ЗСУ reports RF demands ~6,000 sq km of Ukrainian territory they haven't seized, citing Vance. This is a clear RF negotiation demand being communicated via IO. TASS reports Shoigu stating London and Berlin are trying to eliminate undesirable leaders via the Dodik verdict. This is an IO effort to frame Western nations as meddling in the internal affairs of other countries and undermine their credibility, particularly in the Balkans, and distract from RF actions. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, in a video about French unrest, frames the protests as a result of unpopular economic policies and the Elysee Palace being too occupied with the "Ukrainian question." This directly leverages internal Western instability for RF IO. Рыбарь shares an infographic on Balkan drug trafficking, which may be part of a broader IO effort to highlight global instability or organized crime networks unrelated to Russia. Mash на Донбассе shares a video about a sex shop incident in Alchevsk. This is likely an IO piece to highlight social issues in Ukrainian-controlled or disputed territories, or to distract from military news. Alex Parker Returns shares satirical image on NATO Article 5, to mock NATO's response to drone incursions, reinforcing RF's narrative of NATO weakness. AV БогомаZ shares photos of a formal meeting in Bryansk Oblast, likely used for domestic IO to project normalcy and regional governance. Alex Parker Returns reports that the wife of the former Prime Minister of Nepal, previously reported dead, is alive and in critical condition, which RF IO might use to show an alternative narrative to Western media or to appear as a source of "truth." МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on fraudsters tricking a mother of a fallen soldier, which is a negative internal report for RF but could be used by IO to show internal problems are being highlighted and addressed, or to create a narrative of a supportive state for soldiers. TASS reports on obesity in Russian teenagers, which could be used as internal IO to highlight social issues, or to project a focus on public health during wartime. Новости Москвы reports on dividing the Russian language ЕГЭ, an internal IO piece related to education policy. TASS reports Alexey Smirnov, former head of Kursk Oblast, is accused of bribery, which RF IO might leverage to highlight internal anti-corruption efforts or to remove an undesirable figure. WarGonzo is actively recruiting drone operators for "Vityaz" special purpose center, which is a key IO recruitment effort.
  • NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns shares a video of a Tajik diaspora leader speaking against mandatory Russian language testing for migrant children, indicating RF IO leveraging internal social issues. Новости Москвы shares a comedic video of frogs in a wedding setting. Новости Москвы also shares a video depicting urban residents keeping chickens on balconies, both likely for domestic IO to project normalcy/social commentary. Север.Реалии reports on Russia's comments regarding drones in Polish airspace, showing RF's intent to immediately control the narrative. Alex Parker Returns shares an image with text "Погромы будут. Быть добру!" (Pogroms will happen. All will be well!), a dark IO piece. Mash на Донбассе shares a comedic video about advertising in the Donbas, indicating intent for local IO engagement. WarGonzo shares a video with the caption "New generation of drug traffickers prefers UAVs," an unusual IO piece potentially highlighting social decay or a new drone application. TASS reports RF MoD denies planned targets in Poland, indicating intent to deny intentional escalation. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports FSB prevented a Ukrainian agent's terror attack in Izhevsk, a key IO narrative framing Ukraine as a terrorist state to justify RF actions. TASS reports RF PVO shot down 32 Ukrainian UAVs, an IO effort to project strength. ТАСС reports on the Kursk Oblast embezzlement case regarding fortification construction and the former governor admitting guilt and bribery charges, a domestic IO effort to show anti-corruption. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares a video of a Belarusian military official discussing drone interceptions, a likely RF-aligned IO effort to deflect blame from Russia. Военкор Котенок reports the official response from RF MoD on Polish "whining," a highly dismissive IO. РБК-Україна reports EU sanctions on 2600 Russians/companies, which RF IO will frame as Western aggression. TASS reports on fraudsters targeting SVO widows, likely an IO piece to project government concern and warn against fraud. TASS also reports a US company filed for trademarks in Russia, suggesting a narrative of economic normalcy despite sanctions. TASS reports EU sanctions lifted on Dmitry Pumpyansky but upheld on others, indicating a narrative of judicial fairness or selective application of sanctions. Colonelcassad comments on UK's alleged hypocrisy indicates intent to sow distrust among Western allies. TASS showcases a robot dog in Moscow, likely intended to project an image of technological advancement and normalcy for domestic audiences. Colonelcassad's video of Paris protests is likely intended to project an image of internal instability within NATO countries. Операция Z and Janus Putkonen claim Poles blame Ukraine for drone incursions, an IO tactic to sow discord. Два майора's aggressive rhetoric advocating for missile strikes on Warsaw directly communicates a willingness to escalate against NATO. Mash на Донбассе's report on a spy's sentencing serves to project RF's effectiveness in counter-intelligence.
  • NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns (RF): Posts a photo showing a screenshot of a poll where the majority of Poles blame Ukraine for drones entering Poland, with the caption "How scary, Lord." (Как же страшно, Господи.) This clearly demonstrates RF's capability for psychological operations aimed at sowing discord between Ukraine and Poland. Another photo with the caption "Knife in the ass. All will be well!" (Нож в дупу. Быть добру!) reinforces this IO theme.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны): Posts videos and photos of "Protests in France: Lyon railway station captured in Paris, tram tracks blocked in Lyon." This demonstrates RF's capability to leverage and amplify civil unrest in Western countries for IO.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (TASS): Reports "Lithuanian Foreign Ministry summoned the temporary chargé d'affaires of Russia in the republic, Alexander Yelkin, and handed him a note of protest in connection with the penetration of drones into Polish airspace.". This confirms direct diplomatic fallout from the Polish drone incursions.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (Alex Parker Returns): Posts a photo with economic statistics for Ukraine and concludes "Therefore, the SMO is Russia's humanitarian mission in Ukraine. The puzzle has come together. All will be well!" This is a direct and blunt piece of RF propaganda aimed at justifying the war as a "humanitarian mission" based on skewed economic data.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (Басурин о главном): Posts photo messages with the caption "Watching Poland play circus." This directly mocks Poland's response to the drone incursions and is an IO tactic to discredit them.
  • NEW INTEL: AV БогомаZ (Bryansk Governor) shares photos of a meeting at the "Defenders of the Fatherland" fund, which includes high-ranking RF officials and "Bryansk Heroes" award winners. This event, emphasizing veteran support and regional recognition, serves domestic IO to project state care for veterans and rally public support.
  • NEW INTEL: ТАСС (RF): Xiaomi's trademark registration in Russia for consumer goods indicates an ongoing effort by RF to maintain economic normalcy and attract international business, despite sanctions.
  • NEW INTEL: ТАСС (RF): RF MFA's statement on the Polish drone incident attempts to control the narrative by refuting Polish claims of deliberate violation, framing them as attempts to escalate the crisis. This indicates RF's continued capability for diplomatic maneuvering and information warfare.
  • NEW INTEL: ТАСС (RF): Mishustin's focus on inflation reduction highlights RF's capability to manage domestic economic challenges, aiming to maintain stability and public confidence during the conflict.
  • NEW INTEL: WarGonzo (RF): Posts historical propaganda about the 1815 Russian troop review, showcasing RF's capability to leverage historical narratives to bolster national pride and military tradition.
  • NEW INTEL: НгП раZVедка (RF): The milblogger's sarcastic comment about drones "just looking at the city hall spire" in Poland demonstrates RF's capability for agile and dismissive IO to downplay international incidents and mock adversaries.
  • NEW INTEL: WarGonzo (RF): The image questioning "Is America ready for war?" demonstrates RF's capability to engage in information operations aimed at casting doubt on the resolve or capacity of potential adversaries.
  • NEW INTEL: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF): The IO piece claiming Ukraine is preparing a "mass sale of state property" highlights RF's capability to create narratives that undermine Ukrainian sovereignty and economic stability.
  • NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns (RF): The post leveraging Trump's comments on a Ukrainian refugee's murder demonstrates RF's capability to exploit high-profile international incidents and US internal politics for propaganda, aiming to sow discord and criticize perceived Western inaction or hypocrisy.
  • NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns (RF): The "Their struggle" post, while general, suggests RF's capability for social commentary within its IO, reflecting on societal issues that can indirectly support narratives of Western decline or internal strife.
  • NEW INTEL: International (ТАСС, Colonelcassad): Israeli airstrikes in Yemen indicate ongoing regional conflicts that RF can leverage for broader geopolitical narratives, distracting from Ukraine or portraying a multi-polar world. WarGonzo also posts videos of Israeli airstrikes on Yemen's capital, showing a large explosion and rescue operations.
  • NEW INTEL: Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF): Polish FM Sikorski's statement that the Russian chargé d'affaires refused to acknowledge Russian UAVs highlights RF's capability for diplomatic denial and obfuscation.
  • NEW INTEL: Новости Москвы (RF): The opening of a new tram line in Moscow demonstrates RF's capability to maintain and promote domestic urban development and normalcy, contributing to internal stability.
  • NEW INTEL: ТАСС (RF): Reports Trump and his administration are tracking the UAV situation in Poland, which is likely used by RF for IO to highlight US attention on the incident.
  • NEW INTEL: ТАСС (RF): Reports US Senator Lindsey Graham's statement on new sanctions against Russia, indicating RF's awareness of Western political developments.
  • NEW: UAF Intercept of RF Fiber-Optic Drones: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF) and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF) videos report the successful destruction of a group ambush of three Russian fiber-optic drones by the "Lazary" National Guard unit (fishfpv) near a logistics route. This confirms RF's use of advanced fiber-optic drones and UAF's capability to counter them, using FPV drones in air-to-air engagements.
  • NEW: RF Reconnaissance UAV (Kherson): MoD Russia video shows UAV reconnaissance detecting a camouflaged enemy artillery gun in a forest belt on the right bank of the Dnepr River in Kherson region. This confirms RF's continued ISR capabilities in the Kherson area.
  • NEW: RF Claims UAF Casualties (Dnipropetrovsk): Colonelcassad (RF) posts photo messages claiming "Russian troops are grinding down the enemy: Forest strips near Dnipropetrovsk are covered with AFU corpses." This is a graphic RF IO claim about UAF losses, suggesting continued ground combat capabilities and efforts to inflict high casualties.
  • NEW: RF Denies Explosives in Polish Drones (Confidence: HIGH): Операция Z (RF) and Colonelcassad (RF) report Polish prosecution stating no explosives were found in 12 drone fragments discovered in Poland. This is an immediate RF IO counter-narrative to de-escalate the perceived threat from the incursions.
  • NEW: RF IO - Main News (Confidence: HIGH): Военкор Котенок (RF) posts a graphic "Main news today (10.09.2025)", indicating continued information warfare efforts.
  • NEW: RF IO - Military Convergence (Confidence: HIGH): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF) claims increasing military exercises by those who may act against RF, framing them as a serious trend hidden behind "cooperation."
  • NEW: RF IO - US Chip Control (Confidence: HIGH): Alex Parker Returns (RF) posts a graphic claiming a US citizen murdered a Ukrainian refugee due to US authorities implanting a brain chip and controlling him. This is a highly conspiratorial IO piece aimed at discrediting the US and sowing distrust.
  • NEW: Nepalese Parliament Incident (Confidence: HIGH): Colonelcassad (RF) shares video of Nepalese parliament members fleeing by helicopter, with the building later partially burned, indicating ongoing instability in Nepal, which RF IO can leverage for narratives of global instability.
  • NEW: Netanyahu Statement on Qatar/Hamas (Confidence: HIGH): ТАСС (RF) reports Netanyahu accusing Qatar of "harboring terrorists" after strikes on Hamas leaders, indicating a hardening of Israeli stance and further regional tension, which RF IO can leverage.
  • NEW: Slovakian FM on Drones (Confidence: HIGH): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF) reports Slovakian Foreign Minister Juraj Blanár stating he hopes Russian drones were meant for Ukraine, not Poland, and claims Blanár "frankly dislikes Ukrainians." This is an IO piece highlighting perceived anti-Ukrainian sentiment within a NATO/EU country, which can be exploited by RF.
  • NEW: Chechen Cement Plant Construction (Confidence: LOW): Kadyrov_95 (RF) video shows an inspection of a cement plant under construction in Chechnya. No direct military significance, but indicates domestic development efforts, likely for internal IO to project economic progress.
  • NEW: RF IO - "Good Deeds" (Confidence: LOW): Alex Parker Returns (RF) posts two photo messages with cynical captions about "good deeds" and "friendship of peoples," likely for domestic social commentary or to imply hypocrisy among opponents.
  • NEW: Kit Kellogg to Poland (Confidence: HIGH): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF) reports Kit Kellogg was heading to Poland when Russian UAVs invaded, citing CNN. This potentially indicates high-level US military/diplomatic presence during the escalation, which RF IO could frame as US interference.
  • NEW: Nepalese Prison Break (Confidence: HIGH): Colonelcassad (RF) reports nearly 14,000 people escaped prisons in Nepal due to unrest, linking it to broader instability, which RF IO can leverage.
  • NEW: RF IO - "Last Crusade" (Confidence: MEDIUM): WarGonzo (RF) posts a photo of a formal gathering with religious figures and military personnel, captioned "The Last Crusade," likely for internal IO to frame the conflict in religious or existential terms, garnering support.
  • Naval Assets: Colonelcassad reports on a new RF-developed USV, "Ушкуйник," operating on fiber optics. TASS reports Novorossiysk is repelling an attack by unmanned surface vessels (USVs), with a siren sounding along the coastline. Два майора also reports on the Novorossiysk USV attack. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" confirms the USV attack on Novorossiysk. TASS reports the Black Sea Fleet destroyed a Ukrainian uncrewed vessel in the Black Sea. MoD Russia reports Northern Fleet conducted tactical marine infantry landing exercise in Arctic.
• Intentions:
  • Achieve Decisive Breakthrough on Pokrovsk Axis: RF's primary intent is to exploit the breakthrough at Chynyshyn and Muravka to gain significant operational depth on the Pokrovsk axis, threatening Myrnohrad and potentially Pokrovsk city. Combat in high-rise buildings in Krasnoarmeysk indicates an intent to push into urban areas. RF also intends to fully "liberate" LPR in the near future. RF intends to hold ground in Vovchansk using reinforced units. RF also intends to continue degrading UAF ground assets in key directions like Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka and Kupyansk. GSU reports of high-intensity combat on numerous axes (Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka, Shakhtarske, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson) indicate RF intent to maintain high-intensity pressure across numerous axes, particularly Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka, and Shakhtarske, to fix and attrit UAF forces. TASS reports RF intent to destroy UAF forces refusing to surrender. Воин DV explicitly states RF drone operators are "hunting enemy personnel," confirming the intent for attrition warfare on the ground. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF) reiterates control of a supply route in Kupyansk, showing intent to interdict UAF logistics in this sector. GSU reports confirming intensified clashes on multiple axes (Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, South Slobozhansky, Kupyansk) explicitly confirm RF's intent to push ground offensives broadly and deeply across the front. RF's destruction of an AN/TPQ-36 radar system indicates intent to degrade UAF counter-battery capabilities to enable further ground advances. MoD Russia's Arctic exercise demonstrates intent to maintain capability for power projection in strategic regions, indirectly supporting broader naval COAs. STERNENKO (UAF) video of FPV drone attacks on RF infantry fighting vehicle (BMP) and dismounted personnel on the Pokrovsk direction confirms RF's intent to continue ground offensive operations. Два майора (RF) video of explosions on the Zaporizhzhia front confirms RF's intent to maintain ground pressure. Сили оборони Півдня України (UAF Southern Defense Forces) video shows a drone strike on a Russian assault group confirms RF's intent to conduct ground assaults. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF) video indicates RF intent to use small infantry groups for infiltration in Sumy Oblast, supported by remote mining, suggesting adaptive tactical intent for local gains. Alex Parker Returns (RF) video featuring Matt Gaetz reiterating RF demands for ~6000 sq km of Ukrainian territory clearly signals RF's long-term territorial ambitions and conditions for ending the conflict.
  • NEW INTEL: Kadyrov_95 reports continued active work by the 78th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Sever-AKHMAT" to destroy enemy forces, confirming intent for continued attrition. Colonelcassad shares drone video of a TOS-1A + FAB strike on what appear to be Ukrainian positions, indicating intent for heavy fire support to ground operations. WarGonzo shares drone footage of military vehicle engagement and personnel scattering, and other footage of soldiers operating drones and engaging targets, confirming tactical ground combat and drone integration. Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report UAF drone operators from "Spartan" brigade are liquidating small RF infantry groups on the Pokrovsk direction, confirming RF intent to use small, stealthy infantry groups. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a Russian breakthrough attempt in Sumy Oblast was thwarted by UAF drones and remote mining, confirming RF intent to probe and seek breakthroughs. RF MOD (TASS) states RF Armed Forces hit temporary deployment points of Ukrainian armed formations and foreign mercenaries in 152 districts, aligning with intent to attrit UAF personnel.
  • NEW INTEL: RF MOD (MoD Russia): Releases a "progress report" as of 10 SEP 25, which likely outlines RF intent to continue ground operations and achieve stated objectives.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (НгП раZVедка): Posts a tactical map, indicating intent for tactical maneuvers and advancements.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (Colonelcassad): Posts a video titled "Donbas" showing extensive drone footage of RF reconnaissance and strike operations against various UAF military targets. This confirms intent for continued ground and drone-supported combat in Donbas.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (Басурин о главном): Posts photos of individuals in Russian military uniforms during a briefing with a map of Russia's Military Districts. This suggests continued intent for high-level planning and command within RF ground forces.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС): Video reports drone operators of "SIGNUM" battalion, 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, are successfully disrupting enemy logistics on the Lyman direction. This indicates RF is actively conducting ground operations and logistics in this area, confirming continued focus on this COA.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition): Video shows drone footage of explosions in agricultural fields on the Zaporizhzhia front, confirming ongoing RF engagements.
  • NEW: RF Claims UAF Reserves for Vovchansk: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF) claims "AFU is pulling up reserves to strengthen the grouping near Vovchansk." This indicates RF's intent to highlight UAF defensive efforts and potentially anticipate counter-attacks or new defensive lines in the Kharkiv direction.
  • NEW: Два майора "Soldier's Daily Life": Два майора (RF) posts a series of photo messages under the rubric "Будни солдата" (Soldier's Daily Life), depicting daily scenes of soldiers. This suggests an intent to boost morale and humanize RF soldiers, contributing to sustained ground operations.
  • NEW: RF Reconnaissance UAV (Kherson): MoD Russia video shows UAV reconnaissance detecting a camouflaged enemy artillery gun in a forest belt on the right bank of the Dnepr River in Kherson region. This confirms RF's intent to maintain ISR over key areas to support future ground operations or interdiction.
  • NEW: RF Claims UAF Casualties (Dnipropetrovsk): Colonelcassad (RF) posts photo messages claiming "Russian troops are grinding down the enemy: Forest strips near Dnipropetrovsk are covered with AFU corpses." This is a graphic RF IO claim about UAF losses, suggesting RF's intent to inflict high casualties on UAF ground forces and demoralize them.
  • NEW: Colonelcassad Drone Hunt (Confidence: HIGH): Colonelcassad (RF) shares two video messages from the 35th Army Group "Vostok" drone operators from Yekaterinoslavka, claiming they are "hunting enemy personnel." This confirms an intent for continued attrition of UAF personnel using tactical drone assets.
  • NEW: Два майора Geopolitical/Economic Summary (Confidence: HIGH): Два майора (RF) shares a video which includes a map of Ukraine with troop movements. This indicates an intent to provide an overview of military operations within a broader geopolitical context.
  • NEW: RF Tactical Map (Kharkiv) (Confidence: HIGH): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF) posts a tactical map for the Kharkiv direction, indicating continued RF focus and ongoing military activity.
  • NEW: RF Drone Strike on UAF Infantry (Confidence: HIGH): WarGonzo (RF) video shows drone footage of explosions targeting UAF infantry in wooded areas, confirming continued RF tactical drone operations.
  • NEW: RF Ground Forces Activity (South Donetsk) (Confidence: HIGH): Colonelcassad (RF) provides an update on the situation in the South Donetsk direction, indicating ongoing RF ground force operations in that area.
  • Degrade Ukrainian Winter Resilience & Overwhelm Air Defenses: RF intends to continue systematic strikes against Ukrainian energy, industrial, and logistical infrastructure, particularly thermal power generation facilities, to weaken Ukraine's ability to sustain operations through winter. The current missile attacks on Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Lviv Oblasts (including Lviv city and now Zakarpattia), with confirmed hits on civilian industrial objects in Vinnytsia, reinforce this intent to saturate and overwhelm UAF air defenses across the entire country, causing widespread damage. Damage to power lines in Cherkasy Oblast (RBC-Ukraine) directly aligns with this intent. New damage and casualties in Khmelnytskyi and Zhytomyr Oblasts further confirm this intent to cause widespread disruption and demoralization. RBC-Ukraine video of Vinnytsia destruction further confirms intent to inflict civilian and industrial damage. Зеленский / Official's report of 415 drones and over 40 missiles targeting 15 oblasts, coupled with damage to a sewing factory in Khmelnytskyi and a fatality in Zhytomyr, explicitly demonstrates RF intent to cause widespread, indiscriminate damage to civilian infrastructure and population centers across Ukraine, aimed at weakening national resilience. The reported damage to Lviv's industrial facilities and a large fire in Volyn further confirm this intent to degrade Ukraine's economic and logistical capacity. Операция Z (Voenkor Русской Весны) showcasing widespread smoke and destruction further confirms this intent for mass destruction. Air Force of Ukraine reporting KABs on the Donetsk direction and GSU reporting aviation airstrikes at Olhivka (Kherson) confirms RF's intent to sustain air-to-ground strikes. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports intensive shelling of Belgorod and Belgorod region. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports Kramatorsk is under shelling again, indicating RF intent to continue targeting urban areas. Colonelcassad reports a Geranium strike in Cherkasy and Zhytomyr Oblasts on enemy military targets, and drone activity in Lviv Oblast, accompanied by videos showing flashes and explosions over Lviv at night, confirming continued deep strike effectiveness and civilian/military impact.
  • NEW INTEL: RF Ministry of Defense (TASS, MoD Russia, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Colonelcassad) confirms massive strikes on Ukrainian defense industry enterprises in Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, and Lviv Oblasts. TASS specifically claims hits on the Lviv Armored Plant and Lviv Aviation Plant, clearly demonstrating intent to degrade Ukraine's military-industrial complex. UAF Air Force (Повітряні Сили ЗС України) reports launches of guided aerial bombs by RF tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. The reported construction of new military bases near Minsk, Belarus, capable of hosting "Oreshnik" missiles (РБК-Україна) indicates an intent to deploy advanced, potentially nuclear-capable, ballistic missile systems in close proximity to NATO and Ukrainian territory. This signifies a long-term intent to enhance strategic deterrence and conventional strike capabilities, increasing the threat to deep Ukrainian rear areas and NATO's eastern flank.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (РБК-Україна): Posts photos with the caption "Russians covered Kramatorsk's central square, residential areas and market with drones." This indicates an intent to continue targeting urban centers, including civilian areas, with drones.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦) reports a 68-year-old man was injured by an FPV drone attack in Prymorske village, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This is a direct civilian casualty and an intent to use FPV drones against civilians.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine): Reports "Missile danger!" for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and "Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation to the north of Kharkiv Oblast!". This confirms ongoing intent for air strikes to degrade Ukrainian infrastructure and defenses.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine): Reports "☄️ Загроза застосування балістичного озброєння зі північно-східного напрямку!" (Ballistic missile threat from the northeast!), "Ракета через Сумщину!" (Missile through Sumy region!), and "Ще ракета ➡️ на Сумщину!" (Another missile towards Sumy region!). This confirms ongoing intent for ballistic and cruise missile strikes to degrade infrastructure and defenses.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine): Reports "🛵 Ударний БпЛА ➡️ в напрямку Лебедина!" (Strike UAV towards Lebedyn!) and "БпЛА ➡️ в напрямку Чернігова!" (UAV towards Chernihiv!). This confirms ongoing intent for strike UAV operations.
  • NEW: RF Drone Group Towards Poltava: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Полтавщина: група БпЛА повз Диканьку ➡️ курсом на Полтаву." This indicates RF's intent to continue striking targets deep in Ukrainian territory to degrade resilience and infrastructure.
  • NEW: Berdychiv Missile Strike: Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UAF) and Colonelcassad (RF) both share videos of missile strikes in Berdychiv, Zhytomyr Oblast, showing explosions and smoke plumes over residential areas. This confirms RF's intent to target civilian and potentially military targets deep in central Ukraine to cause damage and terror.
  • NEW: RF Drone Groups Towards Kryvyi Rih: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and РБК-Україна (UAF) report "Декілька груп БпЛА ➡️ в напрямку Кривого Рогу." This indicates RF's intent to continue saturation attacks on major industrial centers like Kryvyi Rih.
  • NEW: RF Drone Towards Odesa: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Several groups of strike UAVs from Mykolaiv region ➡️ towards Odesa region." This indicates RF's intent to continue attacking southern Ukrainian targets with drones.
  • NEW: RF Drone Towards Poltava (Sumy origin): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "🛵 Сумщина: БпЛА ➡️ курсом на Полтавщину." This indicates RF's intent to maintain pressure on multiple axes, including from border regions, to disrupt and degrade Ukrainian defenses.
  • NEW: RBK-Ukraina on Dnipropetrovsk Energy Object: РБК-Україна (UAF) posts a photo message stating "😡 Russia hit an energy object in Dnipropetrovsk region with drones." This indicates RF's intent to continue systematic attacks on energy infrastructure, especially in areas with ongoing ground operations, to impact civilian resilience and military support.
  • Undermine Western Support and Ukrainian Morale: RF will continue aggressive information operations to discredit UAF, sow distrust, and amplify internal challenges in Ukraine and among Western partners. This includes claims of UAF personnel losses and lack of basic services for civilians. RF IO intends to manipulate global events (Ramstein meeting, Finland, Moldova, Baltics, Gaza conflict, Paris protests, Israeli strikes in Yemen) to frame Ukraine as a "victim" seeking funds and the West as creating tension. RF milbloggers continuing to push the narrative of alleged atrocities by "Chosen Company" foreign mercenaries aims to discredit international support and justify RF actions. RF IO also intends to sow discord regarding aid by focusing on perceived Western political weaknesses (e.g., Trump ignoring questions about drone incursions). RF intends to exploit the plight of POW families as part of IO. RF intends to frame Ukrainian special services as terrorists to justify their own actions. Рыбарь (RF) graphic about "Unemployed Ukrainians will go to the front" explicitly highlights intent to demoralize Ukrainian citizens and influence Polish public opinion by portraying Ukraine as desperate for manpower. Басурин о главном (RF) circulating "fake" claims about Zelenskiy's statements on Yarova airstrike demonstrates RF's intent to deny war crimes and discredit Ukrainian leadership. Colonelcassad amplifying Belarusian General Staff's deniable narrative on drones reflects RF intent to muddy the waters regarding responsibility for cross-border incursions. Операция Z (RF) framing Kaja Kallas's statement as "hysteria" shows intent to discredit Western leaders. Старше Эдды (RF milblogger) explicitly links Israeli strikes to potential retaliatory strikes on Rzeszów, and mocks NATO's response to drone incursions, openly advocating for escalation, demonstrating RF milblogger's capability to push aggressive and provocative narratives in the information space, leveraging international events. TASS reporting on Belgorod schools moving to remote learning due to UAF attacks indicates RF's intent to portray UAF as targeting civilian infrastructure, thereby justifying their own actions and garnering domestic support. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF) highlighting a college making carts for wounded transport is an IO effort intended to demonstrate resilience and community support, subtly addressing potential morale issues. ASTRA reports EU Commission freezing aid to Israel, which RF IO will leverage to highlight Western disunity and sow discord. Alex Parker Returns' image "На эти 2 процента и живет" appears to be an IO effort to highlight perceived economic vulnerabilities. Colonelcassad video about FSB apprehending alleged Ukrainian military intelligence agent in Izhevsk demonstrates intent to frame Ukraine as a terrorist state and justify RF actions. Операция Z's report on Macron "resolutely condemned" drones in Poland and promised NATO consultations, demonstrating RF's rapid amplification of Western responses for IO. Alex Parker Returns video "В Польше хорошо" likely aims to highlight Polish normalcy in contrast to Ukraine, or promote RF-friendly narratives. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video claiming NATO does not consider UAV incident an "attack," a rapid IO spin to downplay the severity of incursions. Два майора shares multiple videos of civil unrest in France, likely to highlight internal Western instability. WarGonzo frames drone incursions as "UFO? No, Geraniums! Poland scared by UAV raid, NATO in thought," reflecting a dismissive and mocking IO narrative. Alex Parker Returns' image "Просто напомню, что в Киеве..." serves as IO highlighting Kyiv's perceived infrastructure stagnation. ТАСС reports Vance's statement on Trump's economic isolation stance. ТАСС reports Peskov did not comment on the drone incident in Poland and that Poland did not request contact. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo (possibly satirical) with a religious figure, with the caption "Тревожно." This is likely an an IO piece intended to sow fear or uncertainty, indicating centralized C2 for domestic psychological operations. Оперативний ЗСУ reports RF demands ~6,000 sq km of Ukrainian territory they haven't seized, citing Vance. This is a clear RF negotiation demand being communicated via IO to signal their maximalist positions and potentially put pressure on Ukraine/allies. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 makes a sarcastic comment about NATO's statement ("no attack, just an incident, but we showed how cool we are"), reflecting an IO intent to mock Western responses and potentially sow cynicism among Ukrainian audiences. Colonelcassad's infographic projecting RF drone capabilities to 1000 per day by Fall 2025 is a clear propaganda effort to project overwhelming strength and inevitable victory, aiming to demoralize UAF and boost domestic confidence. TASS reports Shoigu stating London and Berlin are trying to eliminate undesirable leaders via the Dodik verdict. This is an IO effort to frame Western nations as meddling in the internal affairs of other countries and undermine their credibility, particularly in the Balkans, and distract from RF actions, indicating centralized C2 over diplomatic/IO narratives. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, in a video about French unrest, explicitly links the protests to unpopular economic policies and the French government being too focused on the "Ukrainian question." This directly leverages internal Western instability for RF IO. This aims to undermine Western unity and support for Ukraine, indicating centralized C2 over IO. TASS reports Putin's meeting with Smolensk Oblast Governor Anokhin, emphasizing attention to "special operation" veterans. This is a clear IO effort to project state care for veterans and rally domestic support for the ongoing conflict, indicating centralized C2 over domestic narratives. Colonelcassad reports on key statements from Dmitry Peskov. This suggests centralized messaging and control over official statements, especially regarding sensitive topics like the drone incursions into Poland. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports that the Dnipropetrovsk Prosecutor's Office prevented the illegal reduction of the Dnipro River's coastal protection zone, demonstrating effective C2 in environmental and legal protection. Новости Москвы reports a proposal to divide the Russian language ЕГЭ, an internal C2 decision on education policy. TASS reports Alexey Smirnov, former head of Kursk Oblast, is accused of bribery, indicating effective C2 in addressing internal corruption.
  • NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns shares a video of a Tajik diaspora leader speaking against mandatory Russian language testing for migrant children, indicating intent to leverage internal social debates for IO. Новости Москвы shares a comedic video of frogs in a wedding setting. Новости Москвы also shares a video depicting urban residents keeping chickens on balconies, both likely for domestic IO to project normalcy/social commentary. Север.Реалии reports on Russia's comments regarding drones in Polish airspace, showing RF's intent to immediately control the narrative. Alex Parker Returns shares an image with text "Pogroms will happen. All will be well!" (Pogroms will happen. All will be well!), a dark IO piece. Mash на Донбассе shares a comedic video about advertising in the Donbas, indicating intent for local IO engagement. WarGonzo shares a video with the caption "New generation of drug traffickers prefers UAVs," an unusual IO piece potentially highlighting social decay or a new drone application. TASS reports RF MoD denies planned targets in Poland, indicating intent to deny intentional escalation. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports FSB prevented a Ukrainian agent's terror attack in Izhevsk, a key IO narrative framing Ukraine as a terrorist state to justify RF actions. ТАСС reports on the Kursk Oblast embezzlement case regarding fortification construction, indicating intent to show internal anti-corruption efforts. Военкор Котенок reports the official response from RF MoD on Polish "whining," a highly dismissive IO. РБК-Україна reports EU sanctions on 2600 Russians/companies, which RF IO will frame as Western aggression. TASS reports on fraudsters targeting SVO widows, indicating intent to project government concern and warn against fraud. TASS also reports a US company filed for trademarks in Russia, suggesting an intent to project economic normalcy despite sanctions. TASS reports EU sanctions lifted on Dmitry Pumpyansky but upheld on others, indicating intent to portray judicial fairness or selective application of sanctions. Colonelcassad's comment on UK's alleged hypocrisy indicates intent to sow distrust among Western allies. TASS showcases a robot dog in Moscow, likely intended to project an image of technological advancement and normalcy for domestic audiences. Colonelcassad's video of Paris protests is likely intended to project an image of internal instability within NATO countries. Операция Z and Janus Putkonen claim Poles blame Ukraine for drone incursions, an IO tactic to sow discord. Два майора's aggressive rhetoric advocating for missile strikes on Warsaw directly communicates a willingness to escalate against NATO. Mash на Донбассе's report on a spy's sentencing serves to project RF's effectiveness in counter-intelligence.
  • NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns (RF): Posts a photo showing a screenshot of a poll where the majority of Poles blame Ukraine for drones entering Poland, with the caption "How scary, Lord." (Как же страшно, Господи.) This indicates RF intent to exploit and amplify perceived divisions between Poland and Ukraine. Another photo with the caption "Knife in the ass. All will be well!" (Нож в дупу. Быть добру!) reinforces this IO theme.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны): Posts videos and photos of "Protests in France: Lyon railway station captured in Paris, tram tracks blocked in Lyon." This indicates RF intent to leverage and amplify civil unrest in Western countries for IO to portray Western weakness and internal distractions.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (TASS): Reports "Lithuanian Foreign Ministry summoned the temporary chargé d'affaires of Russia in the republic, Alexander Yelkin, and handed him a note of protest in connection with the penetration of drones into Polish airspace." This indicates RF intent to continue provocative actions and manage the diplomatic fallout.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (Alex Parker Returns): Posts a photo with economic statistics for Ukraine and concludes "Therefore, the SMO is Russia's humanitarian mission in Ukraine. The puzzle has come together. All will be well!" This is a clear RF IO piece attempting to justify the war as a "humanitarian mission" and dismiss Ukrainian sovereignty.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (Басурин о главном): Posts photo messages with the caption "Watching Poland play circus." This indicates RF intent to mock and discredit Poland's response to drone incursions.
  • NEW INTEL: AV БогомаZ (Bryansk Governor) shares photos of a meeting at the "Defenders of the Fatherland" fund, which includes high-ranking RF officials and "Bryansk Heroes" award winners. This event, emphasizing veteran support and regional recognition, serves domestic IO to project state care for veterans and rally public support.
  • NEW INTEL: ТАСС (RF): Xiaomi's trademark registration in Russia for consumer goods indicates an ongoing effort by RF to maintain economic normalcy and attract international business, despite sanctions.
  • NEW INTEL: ТАСС (RF): RF MFA's statement on the Polish drone incident attempts to control the narrative by refuting Polish claims of deliberate violation, framing them as attempts to escalate the crisis. This indicates RF's continued capability for diplomatic maneuvering and information warfare.
  • NEW INTEL: ТАСС (RF): Mishustin's focus on inflation reduction highlights RF's capability to manage domestic economic challenges, aiming to maintain stability and public confidence during the conflict.
  • NEW INTEL: WarGonzo (RF): Posts historical propaganda about the 1815 Russian troop review, showcasing RF's capability to leverage historical narratives to bolster national pride and military tradition.
  • NEW INTEL: НгП раZVедка (RF): The milblogger's sarcastic comment about drones "just looking at the city hall spire" in Poland demonstrates RF's capability for agile and dismissive IO to downplay international incidents and mock adversaries.
  • NEW INTEL: WarGonzo (RF): The image questioning "Is America ready for war?" demonstrates RF's capability to engage in information operations aimed at casting doubt on the resolve or capacity of potential adversaries.
  • NEW INTEL: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF): The IO piece claiming Ukraine is preparing a "mass sale of state property" highlights RF's capability to create narratives that undermine Ukrainian sovereignty and economic stability.
  • NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns (RF): The post leveraging Trump's comments on a Ukrainian refugee's murder demonstrates RF's capability to exploit high-profile international incidents and US internal politics for propaganda, aiming to sow discord and criticize perceived Western inaction or hypocrisy.
  • NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns (RF): The "Their struggle" post, while general, suggests RF's capability for social commentary within its IO, reflecting on societal issues that can indirectly support narratives of Western decline or internal strife.
  • NEW INTEL: International (ТАСС, Colonelcassad): Israeli airstrikes in Yemen indicate ongoing regional conflicts that RF can leverage for broader geopolitical narratives, distracting from Ukraine or portraying a multi-polar world. WarGonzo also posts videos of Israeli airstrikes on Yemen's capital, showing a large explosion and rescue operations.
  • NEW INTEL: Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF): Polish FM Sikorski's statement that the Russian chargé d'affaires refused to acknowledge Russian UAVs highlights RF's capability for diplomatic denial and obfuscation.
  • NEW INTEL: Новости Москвы (RF): The opening of a new tram line in Moscow demonstrates RF's capability to maintain and promote domestic urban development and normalcy, contributing to internal stability.
  • NEW INTEL: ТАСС (RF): Reports Trump and his administration are tracking the UAV situation in Poland, which is likely used by RF for IO to highlight US attention on the incident.
  • NEW INTEL: ТАСС (RF): Reports US Senator Lindsey Graham's statement on new sanctions against Russia, indicating RF's awareness of Western political developments.
  • NEW: NGP Razvedka on Lithuanian Preparedness: НгП раZVедка (RF) states "It was simply interesting how ready the Lithuanians are, constantly broadcasting about their readiness to teach us a lesson militarily, to be who they claim to be." This reveals an RF intent to assess and potentially undermine the military readiness and resolve of NATO's Baltic states, particularly in the context of the Polish drone incursions.
  • NEW: Coerced Contract Signing (RF): МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF) shares a video claiming conscripts are being coerced into signing military contracts, including while hospitalized, with psychological pressure and threats. This indicates an RF intent to increase military manpower through coercive means, reflecting potential recruitment shortfalls.
  • NEW: UAF IO on Berdychiv Collaborator: Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UAF) posts photo messages attempting to identify a TikTok user ("Slava from Berdychiv") who allegedly rejoices at Russian missile strikes. This indicates a UAF intent to counter internal collaboration and publicize such instances as an IO tactic.
  • NEW: Basurin on "Debt Payment": Басурин о главном (RF) posts photo messages with the caption "ДОЛГ ПЛАТЕЖОМ КРАСЕН" (Debt is paid with payment), depicting a dramatic scene of one person gagged, likely for IO. This suggests an intent to project a narrative of justice or retribution, possibly directed at those perceived as enemies or collaborators, as part of RF's broader psychological operations.
  • NEW: Anatoliy Shtefan on Demobilization: Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UAF) posts a composite image with the caption "😱 successfully demobilized," likely propaganda. This indicates a UAF intent to use satire or dark humor to undermine RF morale or recruitment efforts.
  • NEW: UAF IO on RF Casualties (Confidence: HIGH): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF) posts several photo messages claiming "For Russia, entire families are already dying: the entire military dynasty of the Gorbatovs followed the road to nowhere. Husband, son, and finally mother reunited to say 'thank you' to Putin." This is a UAF IO piece aimed at demoralizing RF forces and domestic audiences by highlighting heavy family losses.
  • NEW: RF IO - Commander Threats (Confidence: HIGH): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF) reports on a video where Russian commanders use threats of "physical annihilation" against their own soldiers, indicating RF's intent to maintain control through extreme pressure, potentially signaling desperation or severe discipline issues.
  • NEW: RF IO - "Bad Luck with Ukrainians" (Confidence: HIGH): НгП раZVедка (RF) posts a text message stating a "truth" that "if you get involved with a Ukrainian - you suffer huge losses." This indicates RF's intent to project an image of Ukrainian resilience and combat effectiveness, possibly to justify RF's own losses or to caution against underestimating UAF.
  • Naval Assets: Colonelcassad reports on a new RF-developed USV, "Ушкуйник," operating on fiber optics. TASS reports Novorossiysk is repelling an attack by unmanned surface vessels (USVs), with a siren sounding along the coastline. Два майора also reports on the Novorossiysk USV attack. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" confirms the USV attack on Novorossiysk. TASS reports the Black Sea Fleet destroyed a Ukrainian uncrewed vessel in the Black Sea. MoD Russia reports Northern Fleet conducted tactical marine infantry landing exercise in Arctic.
• Courses of Action:
  • Intensify Ground Offensive on Pokrovsk Axis: Exploit current breakthroughs with rapid commitment of reserves, aiming to widen the breach and accelerate the advance towards Myrnohrad/Pokrovsk, including urban combat in Krasnoarmeysk. Integrate new robotic systems for assault and mine-laying, and fiber-optic drones. RF will push to achieve the "liberation" of LPR. Maintain pressure on Vovchansk, Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka, and Kupyansk. GSU reports of high-intensity combat on numerous axes (Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka, Shakhtarske, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson) indicate this COA is actively being pursued across the front. WarGonzo's latest "Frontline Summary" for Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv fronts confirms this MLCOA. TASS reports on the elimination of UAF personnel after refusal to surrender south of Kolodezi, indicating a continued aggressive posture in ground operations. Воин DV video showing active drone hunting of UAF personnel confirms RF's intent to continue attritional ground operations, likely supporting main axis offensives. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF) reiterates RF control of a supply route in Kupyansk, confirming continued RF execution of ground interdiction as part of this MLCOA. Народная милиция ДНР (RF) video showing drone attacks on UAF positions reinforces this MLCOA of integrated drone support for ground offensives. GSU's detailed reporting on widespread clashes across multiple axes (Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, South Slobozhansky, Kupyansk) explicitly confirms the active execution of this COA on a broad scale. Destruction of UAF AN/TPQ-36 radar is part of this COA to enable ground force freedom of maneuver. Воин DV reports FPV drone of 69th Separate Brigade destroyed UAF transport and routed personnel, confirming continued tactical execution of this COA. MoD Russia's Arctic exercise indicates RF commitment to maintaining military readiness and power projection capabilities, which supports their overall ground offensive strategy. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС drone footage shows targeting of Russian soldiers in Torske, indicating ongoing ground engagements. STERNENKO (UAF) video shows FPV drone attacks on RF infantry fighting vehicle (BMP) and dismounted personnel on the Pokrovsk direction by UMBRELLA 32nd Separate Mechanized Brigade using fiber-optic drones. Два майора (RF) video of explosions on the Zaporizhzhia front, with thermal imagery, confirms continued ground combat and ISR support. Сили оборони Півдня України (UAF Southern Defense Forces) video shows a drone strike on a Russian assault group, confirming ongoing RF ground assault actions. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF) video indicates RF is using small infantry groups for infiltration in Sumy Oblast, supported by remote mining, suggesting this COA for local gains. Воин DV (RF) new video compilation of "Vostok" Group UAV operators destroying enemy automotive equipment indicates continued execution of this COA by tactical drone strikes.
  • NEW INTEL: Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report UAF drone operators from "Spartan" brigade are liquidating small RF infantry groups on the Pokrovsk direction, confirming continued RF attempts to use small infantry groups. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a Russian breakthrough attempt in Sumy Oblast was thwarted by UAF drones and remote mining, confirming RF will continue probing for weaknesses. Kadyrov_95 reports continued active work by the 78th Motorized Rifle Regiment "Sever-AKHMAT" to destroy enemy forces, indicating this COA is being actively pursued. Colonelcassad shares drone video of a TOS-1A + FAB strike on what appear to be Ukrainian positions, confirming continued heavy fire support to ground operations. WarGonzo shares drone footage of military vehicle engagement and personnel scattering, and other footage of soldiers operating drones and engaging targets, confirming dynamic tactical engagements as part of this COA. RF MOD (TASS) claims RF Armed Forces hit temporary deployment points of Ukrainian armed formations and foreign mercenaries in 152 districts, confirming continuation of this COA.
  • NEW INTEL: RF MOD (MoD Russia): Releases a "progress report" as of 10 SEP 25, which is consistent with ongoing ground offensive operations.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (НгП раZVедка): Posts a tactical map, indicating continued execution of tactical maneuvers.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (Colonelcassad): Posts a video titled "Donbas" showing extensive drone footage of RF reconnaissance and strike operations against various UAF military targets. This confirms continued execution of integrated drone-supported ground combat.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (Басурин о главном): Posts photos of individuals in Russian military uniforms during a briefing with a map of Russia's Military Districts. This suggests continued high-level planning for ground operations.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС): Video reports drone operators of "SIGNUM" battalion, 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, are successfully disrupting enemy logistics on the Lyman direction. This indicates RF is actively conducting ground operations and logistics in this area, confirming continued focus on this COA.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition): Video shows drone footage of explosions in agricultural fields on the Zaporizhzhia front, confirming continued execution of RF ground engagements.
  • NEW: RF Claims UAF Reserves for Vovchansk: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF) claims "AFU is pulling up reserves to strengthen the grouping near Vovchansk." This indicates a COA of continued offensive pressure on Vovchansk, potentially forcing UAF to divert resources from other critical axes.
  • NEW: Два майора "Soldier's Daily Life": Два майора (RF) posts a series of photo messages under the rubric "Будни солдата" (Soldier's Daily Life), depicting daily scenes of soldiers. This represents a COA for internal morale boosting and normalization of military life, supporting sustained ground operations.
  • NEW: RF Reconnaissance UAV (Kherson): MoD Russia video shows UAV reconnaissance detecting a camouflaged enemy artillery gun in a forest belt on the right bank of the Dnepr River in Kherson region. This indicates a COA for continued ISR operations to identify and target UAF artillery positions, thus facilitating RF ground maneuvers.
  • NEW: RF Claims UAF Casualties (Dnipropetrovsk): Colonelcassad (RF) posts photo messages claiming "Russian troops are grinding down the enemy: Forest strips near Dnipropetrovsk are covered with AFU corpses." This is a graphic RF IO claim about UAF losses, suggesting a COA of sustained attritional ground warfare.
  • NEW: Colonelcassad Drone Hunt (Confidence: HIGH): Colonelcassad (RF) shares two video messages from the 35th Army Group "Vostok" drone operators from Yekaterinoslavka, claiming they are "hunting enemy personnel." This confirms a COA of continued attrition of UAF personnel using tactical drone assets.
  • NEW: Два майора Geopolitical/Economic Summary (Confidence: HIGH): Два майора (RF) shares a video which includes a map of Ukraine with troop movements. This indicates a COA to provide a public overview of military operations within a broader geopolitical context.
  • NEW: RF Tactical Map (Kharkiv) (Confidence: HIGH): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF) posts a tactical map for the Kharkiv direction, indicating continued RF focus and ongoing military activity.
  • NEW: RF Drone Strike on UAF Infantry (Confidence: HIGH): WarGonzo (RF) video shows drone footage of explosions targeting UAF infantry in wooded areas, confirming continued RF tactical drone operations.
  • NEW: RF Ground Forces Activity (South Donetsk) (Confidence: HIGH): Colonelcassad (RF) provides an update on the situation in the South Donetsk direction, indicating ongoing RF ground force operations in that area.
  • Degrade Ukrainian Winter Resilience & Overwhelm Air Defenses: RF intends to continue systematic strikes against Ukrainian energy, industrial, and logistical infrastructure, particularly thermal power generation facilities, to weaken Ukraine's ability to sustain operations through winter. The current missile attacks on Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Lviv Oblasts (including Lviv city and now Zakarpattia), with confirmed hits on civilian industrial objects in Vinnytsia, reinforce this intent to saturate and overwhelm UAF air defenses across the entire country, causing widespread damage. Damage to power lines in Cherkasy Oblast (RBC-Ukraine) directly aligns with this intent. New damage and casualties in Khmelnytskyi and Zhytomyr Oblasts further confirm this intent to inflict wider economic and human cost. RBC-Ukraine video of Vinnytsia destruction further confirms intent to inflict civilian and industrial damage. Зеленский / Official's report of 415 drones and over 40 missiles targeting 15 oblasts, coupled with damage to a sewing factory in Khmelnytskyi and a fatality in Zhytomyr, explicitly demonstrates RF intent to cause widespread, indiscriminate damage to civilian infrastructure and population centers across Ukraine, aimed at weakening national resilience. The reported damage to Lviv's industrial facilities and a large fire in Volyn further confirm this intent to degrade Ukraine's economic and logistical capacity. Операция Z (Voenkor Русской Весны) showcasing widespread smoke and destruction further confirms this intent for mass destruction. Air Force of Ukraine reporting KABs on the Donetsk direction and GSU reporting aviation airstrikes at Olhivka (Kherson) confirms RF's intent to sustain air-to-ground strikes. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports intensive shelling of Belgorod and Belgorod region. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports Kramatorsk is under shelling again, indicating RF intent to continue targeting urban areas. Colonelcassad reports a Geranium strike in Cherkasy and Zhytomyr Oblasts on enemy military targets, and drone activity in Lviv Oblast, accompanied by videos showing flashes and explosions over Lviv at night, confirming continued deep strike effectiveness and civilian/military impact.
  • NEW INTEL: RF Ministry of Defense (TASS, MoD Russia, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Colonelcassad) confirms massive strikes on Ukrainian defense industry enterprises in Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, and Lviv Oblasts. TASS specifically claims hits on the Lviv Armored Plant and Lviv Aviation Plant, clearly demonstrating intent to degrade Ukraine's military-industrial complex. UAF Air Force (Повітряні Сили ЗС України) reports launches of guided aerial bombs by RF tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. The reported construction of new military bases near Minsk, Belarus, capable of hosting "Oreshnik" missiles (РБК-Україна) indicates an intent to deploy advanced, potentially nuclear-capable, ballistic missile systems in close proximity to NATO and Ukrainian territory. This signifies a long-term intent to enhance strategic deterrence and conventional strike capabilities, increasing the threat to deep Ukrainian rear areas and NATO's eastern flank.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (РБК-Україна): Posts photos with the caption "Russians covered Kramatorsk's central square, residential areas and market with drones." This indicates an intent to continue targeting urban centers, including civilian areas, with drones.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦) reports a 68-year-old man was injured by an FPV drone attack in Prymorske village, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This is a direct civilian casualty and an intent to use FPV drones against civilians.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine): Reports "Missile danger!" for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and "Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation to the north of Kharkiv Oblast!". This confirms ongoing intent for air strikes to degrade Ukrainian infrastructure and defenses.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine): Reports "☄️ Загроза застосування балістичного озброєння зі північно-східного напрямку!" (Ballistic missile threat from the northeast!), "Ракета через Сумщину!" (Missile through Sumy region!), and "Ще ракета ➡️ на Сумщину!" (Another missile towards Sumy region!). This confirms ongoing intent for ballistic and cruise missile strikes to degrade infrastructure and defenses.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine): Reports "🛵 Ударний БпЛА ➡️ в напрямку Лебедина!" (Strike UAV towards Lebedyn!) and "БпЛА ➡️ в напрямку Чернігова!" (UAV towards Chernihiv!). This confirms ongoing intent for strike UAV operations.
  • NEW: RF Drone Group Towards Poltava: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Полтавщина: група БпЛА повз Диканьку ➡️ курсом на Полтаву." This indicates RF's intent to continue striking targets deep in Ukrainian territory to degrade resilience and infrastructure.
  • NEW: Berdychiv Missile Strike: Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UAF) and Colonelcassad (RF) both share videos of missile strikes in Berdychiv, Zhytomyr Oblast, showing explosions and smoke plumes over residential areas. This confirms RF's intent to target civilian and potentially military targets deep in central Ukraine to cause damage and terror.
  • NEW: RF Drone Groups Towards Kryvyi Rih: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and РБК-Україна (UAF) report "Декілька груп БпЛА ➡️ в напрямку Кривого Рогу." This indicates RF's intent to continue saturation attacks on major industrial centers like Kryvyi Rih.
  • NEW: RF Drone Towards Odesa: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Several groups of strike UAVs from Mykolaiv region ➡️ towards Odesa region." This indicates RF's intent to continue attacking southern Ukrainian targets with drones.
  • NEW: RF Drone Towards Poltava (Sumy origin): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "🛵 Сумщина: БпЛА ➡️ курсом на Полтавщину." This indicates RF's intent to maintain pressure on multiple axes, including from border regions, to disrupt and degrade Ukrainian defenses.
  • NEW: RBK-Ukraina on Dnipropetrovsk Energy Object: РБК-Україна (UAF) posts a photo message stating "😡 Russia hit an energy object in Dnipropetrovsk region with drones." This indicates RF's intent to continue systematic attacks on energy infrastructure, especially in areas with ongoing ground operations, to impact civilian resilience and military support.
  • Increased Drone Interdiction on UAF Logistics: Expand and intensify drone operations to interdict UAF logistical routes, particularly the Izium-Barvinkove and Krasny Liman axes, to degrade frontline sustainment. Extend this to the Kupyansk supply route. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF) claims RF forces have taken control of 1.5 km of a UAF supply route in Kupyansk, confirming active execution of this COA.
  • Escalate Information Warfare: Double down on discrediting UAF actions (e.g., blaming UAF for civilian casualties in Donetsk, denying Yarova strike, the alleged drone attack on Zoya Belentsova's home) and amplifying narratives of global instability and Western hypocrisy. Amplify narratives of NATO's "helplessness" in response to drone incursions. RF milbloggers are openly advocating for attacks on Kyiv and Lviv, and expressing aggressive rhetoric towards Poland, including calls for missile strikes on Warsaw (Два майора), indicating a highly escalated and potentially unhinged IO posture. RF IO will likely exploit the alleged statements of a former American mercenary (Benjamin Reed) to discredit foreign fighters and Ukrainian forces, accusing them of unethical conduct. RF will likely continue cyberattacks against NATO member/partner states, leveraging them as part of their broader hybrid warfare strategy. RF will also likely amplify claims of UAF personnel losses and the impact of mobilization on civilian services. RF will frame the Ramstein meeting as Ukraine seeking funds through "propaganda." RF will push narratives of Western aggression at its borders (Finland, Moldova, Baltics). RF milbloggers promoting domestic topics (like "beige moms") alongside military claims further demonstrates this multi-faceted IO approach. The RF PVO claims of 122 drones shot down (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ASTRA, Басурин о главном, Colonelcassad) are part of this COA. The immediate counter-IO effort by RF milbloggers, such as Fighterbomber's "Psheki went into shaking mode," and the renewed allegations of atrocities by foreign mercenaries (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺), are clear examples of this ongoing COA. RF IO will exploit domestic Russian cultural narratives (Larisa Dolina) to project internal unity and strength. Операция Z is actively amplifying claims of dozens of drones entering Poland to project RF capabilities and sow panic/discord. Операция Z is now explicitly claiming Polish military shot down "all drones" that entered the country, a rapid adaptation to control the narrative. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, ASTRA, and Colonelcassad report UAF drone attacks on Belgorod, framing Ukraine as a terrorist state targeting civilian administrative infrastructure. The video from TASS with Fyodor Sosnov (Film Foundation director) positively evaluating recommended films for schools (e.g., 'The Forty-First', 'Battleship Potemkin') is cultural propaganda aimed at reinforcing patriotic and historical narratives among Russian youth, indirectly bolstering support for the conflict. BУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Kartapolov (RF State Duma Defense Committee Chairman) stating "irresponsible policies of Finland's leadership could lead to conflict with RF," a clear IO effort to project external threats and justify RF military posturing. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (Paratrooper's Diary) video showing explosions in a rural field with Russian overlay text is likely used as tactical propaganda to showcase RF military activity/effectiveness. Операция Z (Voenkor Русской Весны) provides photos and videos of the "massive missile-drone attack on Ukraine" with captions emphasizing RF strength and effectiveness of strikes, reinforcing their propaganda narrative. TASS reports Volodin on a new law for "second hand" transfers, portraying the government as protecting citizens, likely intended to boost internal trust and deflect from war-related issues. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (Mobilization | News | Conscripts) reports a rape by a convicted serviceman, a negative internal report that could be managed by RF IO to demonstrate accountability or suppressed. Colonelcassad highlights Tusk's statements on Russian drones in Poland, specifically downplaying damage, as a rapid IO counter to NATO's narrative of escalation. Рыбарь (Rybar) posts infographics on Moldovan public opinion, which is a subtle IO effort to influence perceptions in a neighboring country. WarGonzo advertises kitchen knives, a non-military post that still circulates in military blogger channels, indicating the broad reach of these platforms for various content. Басурин о главном (Basurin on the main) posts multiple graphics analyzing "Drones over Poland: Accident or provocation?", showcasing a highly coordinated and rapid IO effort to question Polish claims and sow doubt. ТАСС (RF) reports that the Interior Ministry has announced responsibility for the transfer of subscriber data, indicating RF capability to control and monitor telecommunications and potentially leverage this for IO or internal security. ТАСС (RF) reports Mishustin reappointed Hermitage Director, an IO effort to project stability in cultural institutions. Новости Москвы (RF) reports record marriages in Moscow, an IO effort to project normalcy and social well-being. Alex Parker Returns (RF) video discussing Kyiv's bridges is likely an IO effort to instill fear/demoralize by highlighting strategic targets. Новости Москвы (RF) posts a map depicting gasoline shortages in Russian regions. While seemingly negative, this could be framed as an IO narrative to show transparency or resilience. ТАСС (RF) report on migrant children unable to enroll in schools is likely an IO effort to project national identity and social policy. ТАСС (RF) reports on Paris protest detentions, serving the IO goal of highlighting internal Western instability. Alex Parker Returns (RF) amplifies the Reuters report that NATO does not consider the drone incident an "attack," a rapid RF IO effort to downplay the severity and undermine unified NATO response narratives. Военкор Котенок (RF) posts a photo implying an initial RF media report on a downed "Russian drone" near a Polish residential area, showing a rapid IO response to control the narrative around BDA in Poland. Басурин о главном (RF) provides photos and video claiming UAF is mining areas in Kherson Oblast with "juice, chocolates, and books," a classic RF IO tactic to accuse UAF of war crimes and undermine their legitimacy. ТАСС (RF) reports on Paris protest detentions, serving the IO goal of highlighting internal Western instability. Colonelcassad (RF) mocks Poland's drone claims, including the "Gerbera" decoy, in a dismissive tone, further demonstrating RF IO's efforts to ridicule NATO responses. Рыбарь (RF) graphic on "Unemployed Ukrainians will go to the front" is a clear IO effort to demoralize Ukrainian citizens and influence public opinion regarding mobilization. ASTRA (RF) reports on a Samara Governor's Telegram conflict, which is domestic but could be leveraged for IO to show internal accountability or drama within the RF information space. Colonelcassad (RF) shares Pavel Durov's tweet on Telegram coordinating French protests, showing RF's capability to leverage Western social media platforms for political destabilization efforts in NATO countries. Kotsnews (RF) posts a video with a caption claiming "Belarusians saved Poland from a UAV attack," indicating an IO effort to portray Belarus as a benevolent actor and to further muddy the waters regarding the origin and intent of the drone incursions. TASS reports new Syrian authorities will arrive in Moscow for the Russian-Arab summit, which is a COA to project diplomatic influence and counter Western isolation efforts. Басурин о главном (RF) continuing a robust disinformation campaign regarding Yarova airstrike indicates this MLCOA is actively in play. Colonelcassad amplifying Belarusian General Staff Muraveyko's deniable narrative on drones reflects RF intent to muddy the waters regarding responsibility for cross-border incursions. Операция Z (RF) amplifies Kaja Kallas's statement, framing her as "hysterical" for declaring drone incursions an "intentional Russian attack," demonstrating RF's capability to mock and discredit Western leaders. Старше Эдды (RF milblogger) explicitly links Israeli strikes to potential retaliatory strikes on Rzeszów, and mocks NATO's response to drone incursions, openly advocating for escalation, demonstrating RF milblogger's capability to push aggressive and provocative narratives in the information space, leveraging international events. ТАСС reports a criminal case has been opened against footballer Fyodor Smolov for a fight in a Moscow cafe, indicating internal law enforcement actions. ТАСС reports schools in Belgorod and Belgorod district have moved to remote learning due to UAF attacks, serving RF IO to portray UAF as targeting civilian infrastructure and to justify RF actions. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF) reports on a college collecting bicycles for wounded transport carts, which is a localized, grassroots support effort, possibly indicating resource gaps. Новости Москвы reports Zoom might be blocked soon. Два майора mocks Polish resistance to RF troop entry into Ukraine. TASS reports Alexey Markov appointed new RF Consul General in NY. TASS reports temporary restrictions at Gelendzhik airport. Новости Москвы reports high activity in Moscow-City tower after Apple presentation. Новости Москвы reports new tram line without contact network opened in Moscow. Север.Реалии reports list of available websites during internet shutdown expanded to include banks, betting shops, and propaganda media. Colonelcassad posts video of FSB apprehending individual in Izhevsk, claiming agent of Ukrainian military intelligence. Операция Z reports Macron "resolutely condemned" drones in Poland, promising NATO consultations, demonstrating RF's rapid amplification of Western responses for IO. Alex Parker Returns video "В Польше хорошо" is likely an IO effort to contrast Ukraine with perceived Polish "stability." Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video claiming NATO does not consider UAV incident an "attack," a rapid IO spin to downplay the severity of incursions. Два майора shares multiple videos of civil unrest in France, likely to highlight internal Western instability. WarGonzo frames drone incursions as "UFO? No, Geraniums! Poland scared by UAV raid, NATO in thought," reflecting a dismissive and mocking IO narrative. Alex Parker Returns' image "Просто напомню, что в Киеве..." serves as IO highlighting Kyiv's perceived infrastructure stagnation. ТАСС reports Vance's statement on Trump's economic isolation stance. ТАСС reports Peskov did not comment on the drone incident in Poland and that Poland did not request contact. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo (possibly satirical) with a religious figure, with the caption "Тревожно." This is likely an IO piece intended to sow fear or uncertainty, indicating centralized C2 for domestic psychological operations. Оперативний ЗСУ reports RF demands ~6,000 sq km of Ukrainian territory they haven't seized, citing Vance. This is a clear RF negotiation demand being communicated via IO to signal their maximalist positions and potentially put pressure on Ukraine/allies, indicating centralized C2 over diplomatic messaging. TASS reports Shoigu stating London and Berlin are trying to eliminate undesirable leaders via the Dodik verdict. This is an IO effort to frame Western nations as meddling in the internal affairs of other countries and undermine their credibility, particularly in the Balkans, and distract from RF actions, indicating centralized C2 over diplomatic/IO narratives. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, in a video about French unrest, explicitly links the protests to unpopular economic policies and the French government being too focused on the "Ukrainian question." This directly leverages internal Western instability for RF IO. This aims to undermine Western unity and support for Ukraine, indicating centralized C2 over IO. TASS reports Putin's meeting with Smolensk Oblast Governor Anokhin, emphasizing attention to "special operation" veterans. This is a clear IO effort to project state care for veterans and rally domestic support for the ongoing conflict, indicating centralized C2 over domestic narratives. Colonelcassad reports on key statements from Dmitry Peskov. This suggests centralized messaging and control over official statements, especially regarding sensitive topics like the drone incursions into Poland. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports that the Dnipropetrovsk Prosecutor's Office prevented the illegal reduction of the Dnipro River's coastal protection zone, demonstrating effective C2 in environmental and legal protection. Новости Москвы reports a proposal to divide the Russian language ЕГЭ, an internal C2 decision on education policy. TASS reports Alexey Smirnov, former head of Kursk Oblast, is accused of bribery, indicating effective C2 in addressing internal corruption.
  • NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns shares a video of a Tajik diaspora leader speaking against mandatory Russian language testing for migrant children, indicating intent to leverage internal social debates for IO. Новости Москвы shares a comedic video of frogs in a wedding setting. Новости Москвы also shares a video depicting urban residents keeping chickens on balconies, both likely for domestic IO to project normalcy/social commentary. Север.Реалии reports on Russia's comments regarding drones in Polish airspace, showing RF's intent to immediately control the narrative. Alex Parker Returns shares an image with text "Pogroms will happen. All will be well!" (Pogroms will happen. All will be well!), a dark IO piece. Mash на Донбассе shares a comedic video about advertising in the Donbas, indicating intent for local IO engagement. WarGonzo shares a video with the caption "New generation of drug traffickers prefers UAVs," an unusual IO piece potentially highlighting social decay or a new drone application. TASS reports RF MoD denies planned targets in Poland, indicating intent to deny intentional escalation. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports FSB prevented a Ukrainian agent's terror attack in Izhevsk, a key IO narrative framing Ukraine as a terrorist state to justify RF actions. ТАСС reports on the Kursk Oblast embezzlement case regarding fortification construction, indicating intent to show internal anti-corruption efforts. Военкор Котенок reports the official response from RF MoD on Polish "whining," a highly dismissive IO. РБК-Україна reports EU sanctions on 2600 Russians/companies, which RF IO will frame as Western aggression. TASS reports on fraudsters targeting SVO widows, indicating intent to project government concern and warn against fraud. TASS also reports a US company filed for trademarks in Russia, suggesting an intent to project economic normalcy despite sanctions. TASS reports EU sanctions lifted on Dmitry Pumpyansky but upheld on others, indicating intent to portray judicial fairness or selective application of sanctions. Colonelcassad's comment on UK's alleged hypocrisy indicates intent to sow distrust among Western allies. TASS showcases a robot dog in Moscow, likely intended to project an image of technological advancement and normalcy for domestic audiences. Colonelcassad's video of Paris protests is likely intended to project an image of internal instability within NATO countries. Операция Z and Janus Putkonen claim Poles blame Ukraine for drone incursions, an IO tactic to sow discord. Два майора's aggressive rhetoric advocating for missile strikes on Warsaw directly communicates a willingness to escalate against NATO. Mash на Донбассе's report on a spy's sentencing serves to project RF's effectiveness in counter-intelligence.
  • NEW INTEL: Alex Parker Returns (RF): Posts a photo showing a screenshot of a poll where the majority of Poles blame Ukraine for drones entering Poland, with the caption "How scary, Lord." This indicates RF intent to exploit and amplify perceived divisions between Poland and Ukraine. Another photo with the caption "Knife in the ass. All will be well!" reinforces this IO theme.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны): Posts videos and photos of "Protests in France: Lyon railway station captured in Paris, tram tracks blocked in Lyon." This indicates RF intent to leverage and amplify civil unrest in Western countries for IO to portray Western weakness and internal distractions.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (TASS): Reports "Lithuanian Foreign Ministry summoned the temporary chargé d'affaires of Russia in the republic, Alexander Yelkin, and handed him a note of protest in connection with the penetration of drones into Polish airspace." This indicates RF intent to continue provocative actions and manage the diplomatic fallout.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (Alex Parker Returns): Posts a photo with economic statistics for Ukraine and concludes "Therefore, the SMO is Russia's humanitarian mission in Ukraine. The puzzle has come together. All will be well!" This is a clear RF IO piece attempting to justify the war as a "humanitarian mission" and dismiss Ukrainian sovereignty.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (Басурин о главном): Posts photo messages with the caption "Watching Poland play circus." This indicates RF intent to mock and discredit Poland's response to drone incursions.
  • NEW INTEL: AV БогомаZ (Bryansk Governor) shares photos of a meeting at the "Defenders of the Fatherland" fund, which includes high-ranking RF officials and "Bryansk Heroes" award winners. This event, emphasizing veteran support and regional recognition, serves domestic IO to project state care for veterans and rally public support.
  • NEW INTEL: ТАСС (RF): Xiaomi's trademark registration in Russia indicates an intent to demonstrate economic normalcy and attract foreign investment, countering sanctions narratives.
  • NEW INTEL: ТАСС (RF): Mishustin's focus on inflation reduction shows RF's intent to prioritize domestic economic stability during the conflict.
  • NEW INTEL: WarGonzo (RF), Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF), Alex Parker Returns (RF), НгП раZVедка (RF): Various milbloggers' posts highlight RF's intent to conduct multi-faceted information warfare, including historical propaganda, questioning adversary readiness, undermining Ukrainian sovereignty, and exploiting international events for domestic and external consumption.
  • NEW INTEL: ТАСС (RF): Reports Trump and his administration are tracking the UAV situation in Poland, which is used for IO to highlight US attention.
  • NEW INTEL: Военкор Котенок (RF): Video highlighting volunteer fundraising for military equipment while criticizing "Kremlin's carnival of wealth" indicates intent to galvanize public support for volunteers.
  • NEW: Poddubny IO on Drone Incursion: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF) posts a photo message stating the drone provocation in Poland "did not go according to plan," and suggests Europe will focus on its own defense industry rather than sponsoring Ukraine. This suggests an IO-driven COA to sow discord within NATO by portraying the drone incident as a failed Ukrainian false flag or a cunning Russian plan to weaken Western support for Ukraine.
  • NEW: NGP Razvedka on Lithuanian Preparedness: НгП раZVедка (RF) states "It was simply interesting how ready the Lithuanians are, constantly broadcasting about their readiness to teach us a lesson militarily, to be who they claim to be." This reveals an RF COA to probe and potentially undermine the military readiness and resolve of NATO's Baltic states, particularly in the context of the Polish drone incursions.
  • NEW: Coerced Contract Signing (RF): МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF) shares a video claiming conscripts are being coerced into signing military contracts, including while hospitalized, with psychological pressure and threats. This indicates a COA to increase military manpower through coercive means, reflecting potential recruitment shortfalls but a determined effort to sustain force generation.
  • NEW: UAF IO on Berdychiv Collaborator: Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UAF) posts photo messages attempting to identify a TikTok user ("Slava from Berdychiv") who allegedly rejoices at Russian missile strikes. This indicates a UAF COA to counter internal collaboration and publicize such instances as an IO tactic.
  • NEW: Basurin on "Debt Payment": Басурин о главном (RF) posts photo messages with the caption "ДОЛГ ПЛАТЕЖОМ КРАСЕН" (Debt is paid with payment), depicting a dramatic scene of one person gagged, likely for IO. This suggests a COA to project a narrative of justice or retribution, possibly directed at those perceived as enemies or collaborators, as part of RF's broader psychological operations.
  • NEW: Anatoliy Shtefan on Demobilization: Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UAF) posts a composite image with the caption "😱 successfully demobilized," likely propaganda. This indicates a UAF COA to use satire or dark humor to undermine RF morale or recruitment efforts.
  • NEW: UAF IO on RF Casualties (Confidence: HIGH): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF) posts several photo messages claiming "For Russia, entire families are already dying: the entire military dynasty of the Gorbatovs followed the road to nowhere. Husband, son, and finally mother reunited to say 'thank you' to Putin." This is a UAF IO piece aimed at demoralizing RF forces and domestic audiences by highlighting heavy family losses.
  • NEW: RF IO - Commander Threats (Confidence: HIGH): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF) reports on a video where Russian commanders use threats of "physical annihilation" against their own soldiers, indicating a COA to maintain control through extreme pressure.
  • NEW: RF IO - "Bad Luck with Ukrainians" (Confidence: HIGH): НгП раZVедка (RF) posts a text message stating a "truth" that "if you get involved with a Ukrainian - you suffer huge losses." This indicates a COA for RF IO to project Ukrainian resilience, potentially to manage domestic expectations or to justify RF losses.
  • Continued Probing of NATO Air Defenses with Hybrid Warfare Elements: RF will likely continue to launch UAVs towards or into NATO member states' airspace (e.g., Poland), with a strong focus on strategic logistical hubs like Rzeszów, Lublin, and Warsaw, to test response thresholds, gather intelligence on air defense reactions, and sow discord, with a particular focus on areas near critical logistical hubs like Rzeszów, Lublin, and now Warsaw. The reported trajectory towards Warsaw via Belarus represents a significant escalation in this COA, potentially aiming to maximize political impact and test NATO resolve at a higher level. Confirmed Polish airport closures (TASS), Polish government response (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, RBK-Україна), and the US "act of war" statement (STERNENKO, RBK-Україна) confirm this COA is active and highly successful in achieving RF's disruptive intent. Confirmed Polish shootdown of 2 Shaheds over Volyn Oblast (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦) confirms the execution of this COA, demonstrating direct RF intent to violate NATO airspace and the successful NATO response. Mykhailo Podolyak's statement that Russia deliberately attacked Poland with drones confirms this COA. Operatsiya Z reports Polish military statements of shooting down all drones that entered the country, which is a success in defense, but the incursion itself is a setback. A man in Warsaw expressed fear of war in Poland, capturing the psychological impact of the drone incursions (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦). The confirmed damage to a residential building and a car in Lublin Voivodeship, Poland, from a Russian drone (STERNENKO, Операция Z), represents a direct tactical adaptation by RF to inflict material damage within NATO territory during such probes, further escalating the hybrid warfare aspect. ASTRA's report of 8 drones crossing into Poland confirms the scaled nature of this COA. TASS reports the discovery of two downed UAVs in Poland (one near Belarusian border, one near Ukrainian border), confirming the physical presence and successful, albeit limited, penetration of NATO airspace. All UAF and Ukrainian government sources (Zelenskiy / Official et al.) explicitly stating the drone incursions into Poland were intentional and large-scale (Zelenskiy / Official et al.) underscores the perceived deliberateness and escalated nature of this COA. РБК-Україна reports PM Tusk calling the drone attack a "massive provocation," confirming the diplomatic and security setback for Poland and NATO. TASS reports Poland will invoke NATO Article 4, which is a diplomatic setback for NATO by forcing formal consultations on the integrity of its airspace, directly caused by RF actions. PM Tusk confirms 19 drones entered Poland overnight and 3 were shot down. This larger number of incursions represents an increased scale of the setback for NATO airspace security, despite the successful interceptions. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Poland shot down 4 of 19 drones (preliminary data). OSINT analysts report Russian drones traveled approximately 250 km inside Polish territory overnight (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS), confirming deep incursions and a significant airspace violation. Poland found 7 drones and missile fragments (Оперативний ЗСУ et al.), indicating widespread violations. ASTRA reports Polish Interior Ministry discovered seven drones and one missile fragment. TASS reports NATO applied Article 4 in connection with the UAV incident in Poland, confirming RF's intent to provoke a formal NATO response. РБК-Україна reports Poland summoned a Russian diplomat to the carpet, indicating direct diplomatic action following RF incursions. Операция Z (Voenkor Русской Весны) shows photos of a downed drone in the Polish village of Woginy, providing physical evidence of a drone incursion. Janus Putkonen (Finnish pro-RF) reports Poland's reaction to "Gerbera" drones, claiming they were unarmed and Belarus had warned of their straying, indicating an RF-aligned IO narrative to downplay provocation. Военкор Котенок shares photos of another downed drone in Poland, reinforcing the evidence of multiple incursions.
  • NEW INTEL: TASS reports Polish Armed Forces are redeploying units to the border with Belarus, a direct military response to RF actions, indicating RF has achieved the intent to provoke a military reaction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports NATO activated Article 4, confirming the diplomatic intent was achieved. Colonel Martin O'Donnell (NATO Echelon) states German Patriot PAC-3 systems in Poland were put on combat readiness during the drone incursions. РБК-Україна reports drones with Cyrillic inscriptions penetrated 300 km into Poland, demonstrating RF's intent for deep penetration. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares a video of a Belarusian military official discussing drone interceptions, a likely RF-aligned IO effort to deflect blame from Russia. STERNENKO (UAF) reports RF MoD stated that the targets of the strike were allegedly achieved and the shelling of Poland was not planned, with a maximum UAV flight range into the country not exceeding 700 km, indicating an RF attempt to publicly deny intentional incursion. Janus Putkonen (Finnish pro-RF) suggests investigations should precede accusations regarding the Polish incident, indicating an IO adaptation. Alex Parker Returns' image "Они еще ничего даже не начинали" is an IO adaptation to mock German Foreign Minister Baerbock's statement. Два майора's aggressive rhetoric advocating for missile strikes on Warsaw represents a significant adaptation in RF IO to directly threaten a NATO capital and escalate rhetorical aggression.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (TASS): Reports "Lithuanian Foreign Ministry summoned the temporary chargé d'affaires of Russia in the republic, Alexander Yelkin, and handed him a note of protest in connection with the penetration of drones into Polish airspace." This represents a direct diplomatic consequence for RF's continued drone incursions into Polish airspace.
  • NEW INTEL: Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF): Polish FM Sikorski's statement that the Russian chargé d'affaires refused to acknowledge Russian UAVs highlights RF's adaptation for diplomatic denial and obfuscation.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (TASS): Reports fragments of UAVs found in 10 locations in Poland, confirming the execution of deep incursions.
  • NEW: Polish-Belarusian Drone Contact: TASS reports Polish FM Sikorski confirmed contact with Minsk regarding UAV airspace violations on the night of 9-10 September. This confirms a COA of diplomatic engagement to manage the fallout of drone incursions, though with conflicting narratives.
  • NEW: Slovakian PM on Drone Incursion: Операция Z (RF) shares photo messages quoting Slovakian PM Fico, stating "It is necessary to find out whose they are and whether it was intentional," regarding the drones in Poland. This indicates a COA by RF to promote skepticism within NATO regarding the origin and intent of the drone incursions, potentially disrupting alliance cohesion.
  • NEW: UAF on Polish Drone Cost: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF) posts a photo message claiming "Poles today shot down 'Gerbera' decoy drones for $10 thousand with AIM-120C-7 missiles for $1.2 million." This indicates a COA by UAF to highlight the cost-inefficiency of defending against Russian drones, potentially influencing future Western military aid and air defense strategies.
  • NEW: STERNENKO on Trump's Reaction: STERNENKO (UAF) posts photo messages quoting Trump on Russia's drone violation of Polish airspace: "It's starting!" This indicates a COA by UAF to amplify attention from influential international figures to highlight the severity of RF actions against NATO.
  • NEW: Zelenskiy on Drone Attack on Poland (Confidence: HIGH): РБК-Україна (UAF) shares a video of Zelenskiy suggesting the drone attack on Poland could be part of Russian-Belarusian exercises. This is an adaptation by UAF to frame the incursions as part of broader military exercises.
  • NEW: Netherlands F-35s Shot Down RF Drones (Confidence: HIGH): Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UAF) reports Dutch F-35 fighters shot down Russian "Gerbera" UAVs over Poland using AIM-9X missiles. This confirms successful NATO air defense engagement, but also a continued RF adaptation to probe and penetrate NATO airspace.
  • NEW: RF Denies Explosives in Polish Drones (Confidence: HIGH): Операция Z (RF) and Colonelcassad (RF) report Polish prosecution stating no explosives were found in 12 drone fragments discovered in Poland. This is an immediate RF IO adaptation to mitigate the perceived threat from the incursions.
  • NEW: RF IO - Polish Drone Cost (Confidence: HIGH): Операция Z (RF) shares multiple identical photo messages highlighting the cost discrepancy of NATO shooting down cheap RF drones with expensive missiles, indicating a COA to undermine confidence in NATO's air defense strategy.
  • Expansion of Cyber Warfare to NATO Allies: The reported cyberattacks against the Czech Republic ahead of their elections indicate an adaptation to integrate offensive cyber operations more directly into political warfare against NATO allies. The alleged assassination plot in Izhevsk attributed to Ukrainian special services (TASS) indicates RF's adaptation to conduct counter-terrorism/counter-espionage operations, possibly framing Ukraine as a state sponsor of terrorism. ТАСС (RF) reports the Interior Ministry is addressing responsibility for transfer of subscriber data, indicating a tightening of internal C2 over telecommunications and possibly for internal security or to counter information operations. Colonelcassad (RF) highlighting Pavel Durov's tweet about Telegram coordinating French protests demonstrates an adaptation to leverage social media for political destabilization in NATO countries. Север.Реалии reports expansion of "safe" internet sites during outages to include banks, betting shops, and propaganda media, indicating adaptation for information control during critical events. RF's FSB apprehending alleged Ukrainian military intelligence agent (Военкор Котенок video) is an adaptation to conduct counter-intelligence operations and generate IO. TASS reports websites of State Duma, Federation Council, Prosecutor General's Office, and Ministry of Emergency Situations will be whitelisted for internet restrictions due to security threats, indicating an adaptation for information control.
  • NEW INTEL: Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports FSB prevented a Ukrainian agent's terror attack in Izhevsk, an adaptation to counter Ukrainian special services.
  • NEW INTEL: Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны: Posts videos and photos of "Protests in France: Lyon railway station captured in Paris, tram tracks blocked in Lyon." This demonstrates an adaptation to leverage civil unrest in Western countries for IO.
  • Simultaneous Multi-Axis Missile and Drone Attacks: The current situation with cruise missiles targeting Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Lviv Oblasts (now extending to Zakarpattia) concurrently with ongoing drone activity across multiple oblasts, now involving a reported 40 missiles, indicates a tactical adaptation towards increasingly complex and coordinated multi-axis air campaigns aimed at overwhelming UAF air defenses and achieving widespread impact. The reported 415 drones and over 40 missiles simultaneously targeting 15 oblasts (Zelenskiy / Official) represents a substantial increase in scale and complexity of this multi-axis attack, marking a significant adaptation to achieve maximum saturation and impact. Colonelcassad reports a combined RF strike on Ukraine on 10.09.2025, further confirming the continued adaptation towards complex, multi-modal air attacks.
  • NEW INTEL: RF MOD (TASS, MoD Russia, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Colonelcassad) confirms massive strikes on Ukrainian defense industry enterprises in Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, and Lviv Oblasts, demonstrating an adaptation to target the defense industry across multiple regions.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine): Reports "Missile danger!" for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and "Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation to the north of Kharkiv Oblast!". This confirms ongoing adaptation of multi-axis air campaigns.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine): Reports "☄️ Загроза застосування балістичного озброєння зі північно-східного напрямку!" (Ballistic missile threat from the northeast!), "Ракета через Сумщину!" (Missile through Sumy region!), and "Ще ракета ➡️ на Сумщину!" (Another missile towards Sumy region!). This confirms continued adaptation of multi-axis ballistic and cruise missile attacks.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine): Reports "🛵 Ударний БпЛА ➡️ в напрямку Лебедина!" (Strike UAV towards Lebedyn!) and "БпЛА ➡️ в напрямку Чернігова!" (UAV towards Chernihiv!). This confirms continued adaptation of multi-axis drone attacks.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine): Reports "🛸 Ворожий розвідувальний БпЛА з акваторії Чорного моря ➡️ в напрямку Одещини! Залучено засоби для його збиття." (Hostile reconnaissance UAV from the Black Sea towards Odesa region! Assets engaged for its shootdown.), confirming adaptation for multi-domain ISR operations.
  • NEW: RF Drone Group Towards Poltava: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Полтавщина: група БпЛА повз Диканьку ➡️ курсом на Полтаву." This demonstrates RF's adaptation for simultaneous, multi-axis drone attacks, probing different air defense sectors.
  • NEW: Berdychiv Missile Strike: Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UAF) and Colonelcassad (RF) both share videos of missile strikes in Berdychiv, Zhytomyr Oblast. This confirms RF's adaptation for complex, multi-domain strikes against key urban centers in central Ukraine.
  • NEW: RF Drone Groups Towards Kryvyi Rih: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and РБК-Україна (UAF) report "Декілька груп БпЛА ➡️ в напрямку Кривого Рогу." This confirms RF's adaptation for launching multiple drone groups simultaneously towards strategic industrial targets.
  • NEW: RF Drone Towards Odesa: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Several groups of strike UAVs from Mykolaiv region ➡️ towards Odesa region." This confirms RF's adaptation for multi-directional drone attacks against southern Ukrainian targets.
  • NEW: RF Drone Towards Poltava (Sumy origin): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "🛵 Сумщина: БпЛА ➡️ курсом на Полтавщину." This confirms RF's adaptation for multi-directional and layered drone attacks.
  • NEW: RBK-Ukraina on Dnipropetrovsk Energy Object: РБК-Україна (UAF) posts a photo message stating "😡 Russia hit an energy object in Dnipropetrovsk region with drones." This indicates RF's adaptation for sustained, widespread targeting of energy infrastructure across multiple oblasts.
  • Increased Use of Alleged Defector/Mercenary Testimonies in IO: The TASS interview with "Benjamin Reed" is an adaptation in IO to use alleged first-hand accounts to undermine UAF and foreign fighter morale and credibility. The renewed allegations from Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 regarding foreign mercenaries of "Chosen Company" committing atrocities is an example of adapting this IO tactic. STERNENKO's video of Trump ignoring questions about drone incursions into Poland indicates UAF IO's adaptation to highlight perceived weaknesses in Western leadership or support. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими's warning regarding RF exploiting POW families highlights an adaptation of RF hybrid warfare to target vulnerable populations for intelligence or IO. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report of SBU prevention of an Lviv terror attack involving child recruits highlights RF's adaptation to use irregular methods and vulnerable individuals for hybrid operations.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS): Posts a video titled "Trump called for the death penalty for the killer of Ukrainian Iryna Zarutska" showing an altercation on public transport. This represents an adaptation to leverage high-profile international political figures' statements for IO.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (TASS): Reports Trump and his administration are tracking the UAV situation in Poland, adapting to highlight US attention on the incident.
  • USV Attacks on Naval Bases: The USV attack on Novorossiysk indicates that RF is also being targeted by asymmetric naval attacks, mirroring Ukrainian tactics. RF MoD reports counter-USV operations, indicating an adaptation to defend against this emerging threat. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports drone alarm in Gelendzhik, Novorossiysk, Myskhako.
  • Targeting of Civilian Industrial Objects: The reported hits on civilian industrial objects in Vinnytsia by missile strikes represents an adaptation to directly target Ukraine's economic and industrial base, not just energy or C2. Damage to a power line in Cherkasy Oblast (RBC-Ukraine) is another example of targeting civilian infrastructure. New damage to a sewing factory in Khmelnytskyi and civilian casualties in Zhytomyr represent further exacerbates the need for repair and engineering resources. RBC-Ukraine reports one injured person in Vinnytsia, confirming continued demand for medical services. The damage to a sewing factory in Khmelnytskyi, industrial facilities in Lviv, and a large-scale fire in Volyn (Zelenskiy / Official, Sadovyi, РБК-Україна) further confirm the widespread need for engineering and repair equipment and personnel across multiple regions. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) infographic on financial assistance for shelling victims in Kyiv highlights the significant and ongoing demand for resources to address civilian needs and repair efforts.
  • NEW INTEL: RF MOD (TASS, MoD Russia, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Colonelcassad) confirms massive strikes on Ukrainian defense industry enterprises in Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, and Lviv Oblasts. TASS specifically claims hits on the Lviv Armored Plant and Lviv Aviation Plant, demonstrating an adaptation to target specific defense industry sites.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (РБК-Україна): Posts photos with the caption "Russians covered Kramatorsk's central square, residential areas and market with drones." This indicates an adaptation to target civilian urban areas and market infrastructure with drones.
  • NEW: Zaporizhzhia Drone Damage: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (UAF) posts photos of a damaged apartment building in Zaporizhzhia with broken windows and a damaged balcony, stating "Enemy attacked Zaporizhzhia with UAVs." This indicates an adaptation to use drones for direct strikes on civilian infrastructure, particularly residential buildings, causing fear and disruption. The Zaporizhzhia OVA's multiple photo messages confirm this.
  • NEW: Zaporizhzhia Attack Casualties: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (UAF) reports "Two people were injured as a result of an enemy attack on Zaporizhzhia." The photo shows damage to a residential building. This confirms RF's adaptation to cause civilian casualties and damage to residential areas during drone attacks.
  • NEW: RBK-Ukraina on Dnipropetrovsk Energy Object: РБК-Україна (UAF) posts a photo message stating "😡 Russia hit an energy object in Dnipropetrovsk region with drones." This indicates RF's adaptation to prioritize energy infrastructure as a target for drone attacks to impact civilian life and industry.
  • IO Adaptation: Ramstein Framing: RF IO adapting to frame UAF efforts to secure aid at Ramstein as cynical propaganda by Kyiv to extract funds.
  • IO Adaptation: Counter-Defection Narrative: The video portraying a Russian defector killing his commanders (Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України) is a UAF IO adaptation to encourage defections and highlight internal RF issues. RF IO will likely adapt to counter this, as seen with the TASS report on a military court sentencing a recruiter. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF special purpose brigades destroying Starlink antennas and UAF personnel, indicating a tactical adaptation to neutralize UAF communications. RF's rapid amplification of Ukraine's MFA demanding Western air defense (Операция Z) indicates an IO adaptation to immediately exploit perceived UAF weaknesses and external dependencies. TASS reports new Syrian authorities will arrive in Moscow for Russian-Arab summit, indicating RF's diplomatic adaptation to project influence and counter isolation. Басурин о главном (RF) is actively circulating "fake" claims about Zelenskiy's statements on Yarova airstrike, a clear adaptation in RF IO to deny war crimes. Colonelcassad amplifying Belarusian General Staff Muraveyko's deniable narrative on drones is an adaptation to manage the information environment around cross-border incursions. Операция Z (RF) framing Kaja Kallas's statement as "hysteria" is an IO adaptation to discredit Western leaders. Старше Эдды (RF milblogger) explicitly links Israeli strikes to potential retaliatory strikes on Rzeszów, and mocks NATO's response to drone incursions, openly advocating for escalation, demonstrating RF milblogger's capability to push aggressive, escalating narratives and test red lines. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF) highlighting a college making carts for wounded transport is an IO adaptation to show grassroots support and resilience, potentially masking official logistical gaps. ТАСС features an interview with Larisa Dolina on Shaman, a singer, being unique and able to win "Intervision." This is cultural IO adaptation, projecting national talent and distraction from military events. Новости Москвы reporting on potential Zoom blockages in Russia could be an adaptation to control information flow or respond to perceived cyber threats. Оперативний ЗСУ video reports on NABU official caught in illicit enrichment, demonstrating UAF's adaptation to expose internal corruption. Alex Parker Returns' image on Kyiv metro, showing perceived stagnation, is an IO adaptation. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF) video shows UAF detecting and engaging a RF infantry group in Sumy Oblast, indicating RF adaptation to small infantry penetration tactics, but also UAF adaptation to counter them. Alex Parker Returns (RF) video featuring Matt Gaetz reiterating RF demands for ~6000 sq km of Ukrainian territory clearly signals RF's long-term territorial ambitions and conditions for ending the conflict. TASS reports Shoigu statement regarding London and Berlin trying to eliminate undesirable leaders via the Dodik verdict. This is an IO adaptation to frame Western nations as interfering in sovereign affairs and justify RF's own actions. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, in a video about French unrest, explicitly blames Western support for Ukraine for internal French economic issues and protests. Олексій Білошицький's video of patrol police saving a person from suicide, though not directly military, could be used by UAF IO to project images of social care and stability.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС): Video shows a captured Russian soldier (Nestoranko Sergey, 110th Brigade) describing his mobilization and the distress caused by his superiors' actions. This could be an adaptation to gain intelligence on RF troop morale and conscription practices.
  • Internal RF Anti-Corruption/Personnel Management: The Alekhin fraud investigation (Colonelcassad) highlights an adaptation to address corruption within volunteer support networks, potentially for internal control or to project an image of accountability. The lack of payments for conscripts (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ) suggests an adaptation or ongoing struggle with personnel management, potentially leading to morale issues. TASS reports Putin signed a law for credit holidays for entrepreneurs and self-employed, an adaptation to manage domestic economic impact. TASS reports Alexey Smirnov, former head of Kursk Oblast, is accused of bribery, indicating an adaptation to address high-level corruption within regional governance.
  • NEW INTEL: TASS and Alex Parker Returns report on the Kursk Oblast embezzlement case regarding fortification construction, with the former governor admitting guilt and facing bribery charges, indicating internal anti-corruption adaptations. TASS reports on fraudsters targeting SVO widows, an adaptation to highlight internal social issues and project state concern.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники): A video post with the caption "Military beat a father of many children to death" and accompanying text claiming a Russian soldier beat a civilian to death and authorities are failing to act. This highlights a critical internal adaptation challenge for RF regarding military discipline and accountability, and could be a significant blow to morale.
  • NEW: UAF FPV Drone Strike (Pokrovsk) (Confidence: HIGH): STERNENKO (UAF) video shows an FPV drone strike on a Russian motorcyclist on the Pokrovsk direction by operators of the 55th OABr, confirming continued UAF adaptation to target RF ground mobility.
  • NEW: RF IO - Hungarian Alignment (Confidence: HIGH): ТАСС (RF) quoting Hungarian FM Péter Szijjártó on Ukraine's attacks on "Druzhba" pipeline suggests RF is adapting its IO to exploit divisions within NATO/EU, framing Ukraine as a threat to European energy security.
  • NEW: RF IO - Siijarto "Bloody Rubles" Counter-Narrative (Confidence: HIGH): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF) sharing a photo message accusing Siijarto of "working off bloody rubles" is a UAF IO adaptation to directly counter RF narratives and discredit pro-Russian voices within the EU.
  • NEW: RF IO - Trump's Role in Qatar Attack (Confidence: HIGH): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF) promoting a conspiratorial narrative about Trump luring Hamas for attack, comparing it to "gangster-style negotiations," is an RF IO adaptation to sow distrust in US diplomacy and project an image of perfidy, while also leveraging international events to distract from Ukraine.
  • NEW: RF IO - NATO F-35 vs. Gerbera Cost (Confidence: HIGH): Операция Z (RF) repeatedly sharing an infographic highlighting the 280:1 cost ratio of NATO F-35 missiles to Russian Gerbera drones is an aggressive RF IO adaptation to mock NATO air defense capabilities and funding, aiming to demoralize Western audiences and question aid to Ukraine.

2.2. Recent tactical changes or adaptations (Confidence: HIGH)

• Deployment of Robotic Ground Systems and Fiber-Optic Drones: The introduction of the 'Kur'er' robotic complex for assault and mine-laying and the "Veterok" fiber-optic drone for precision strikes is a significant tactical adaptation, indicating RF's intent to integrate unmanned ground and specialized long-range drone systems into direct combat operations. The STERNENKO (UAF) video confirming UMBRELLA 32nd Separate Mechanized Brigade using fiber-optic drones on the Pokrovsk direction further solidifies this adaptation.
• NEW INTEL: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a Russian breakthrough attempt in Sumy Oblast was thwarted by UAF drones and remote mining, showing RF is using small infantry groups for infiltration.
• Increased Drone Interdiction of UAF Logistics: RF has adapted to target UAF logistical routes (Izium-Barvinkove, Krasny Liman, and now Kupyansk supply routes) with drones, suggesting a more sophisticated approach to interdiction.
• Shift in Air Campaign to Pre-Emptive Strikes with Strategic Bombers and Overwhelming Saturation: The launch of a Tu-160 strategic bomber from Engels-2 airbase signals a strategic adaptation for potential large-scale, coordinated missile strikes, possibly pre-emptive, and likely targeting energy infrastructure. The current multi-axis, simultaneous cruise missile attack (now over 40 missiles targeting deep into Western Ukraine including Lviv and Zakarpattia) combined with widespread drone activity is a clear tactical adaptation to overwhelm and saturate UAF air defenses. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting X-101, X-59, Kalibr, and Shaheds confirms the use of a mixed, multi-platform approach for saturation. The targeting of civilian industrial objects in Vinnytsia and the power line in Cherkasy Oblast, along with new casualties and damage in Khmelnytskyi and Zhytomyr Oblasts, demonstrate an adaptation to inflict wider economic and human cost. RBC-Ukraine video of Vinnytsia destruction further confirms this adaptation to hit civilian industrial infrastructure. The reported drone attack and fire in Volyn Oblast, and a drone shot down over Chernivtsi Oblast, indicate a wide geographical adaptation of RF air campaign. The reported total of 415 drones and over 40 missiles, targeting 15 oblasts (Zelenskiy / Official), represents an unprecedented scale of coordinated air attack, signifying a major adaptation to achieve widespread saturation and overwhelming effect on UAF air defenses and civilian infrastructure. The reported concentration of ~60 Shaheds and >10 missiles on Lviv (Sadovyi) highlights an adaptation to focus overwhelming firepower on specific strategic targets in Western Ukraine. Операция Z (Voenkor Русской Весны) showcasing widespread smoke and destruction confirms the extensive and devastating nature of this adapted air campaign. Alex Parker Returns (RF) video discussing Kyiv's bridges implies RF considers them strategic targets and may include them in future strikes, reinforcing this COA. Air Force of Ukraine reports KABs on the Donetsk direction, and GSU reports aviation airstrikes at Olhivka (Kherson), confirming the continued execution of tactical air support as part of this COA. Colonelcassad reports a combined RF strike on Ukraine on 10.09.2025, further confirming this multi-modal and adaptive air campaign. РБК-Україна video confirms destroyed sewing factory in Khmelnytskyi. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports UAF drone damaged hotel in Shirokaya Balka, which RF will use to frame UAF as targeting civilian infrastructure. ТАСС reports six Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russia, indicating RF adaptation to counter UAF drone attacks. OSINT analysts report Russian drones traveled approximately 250 km inside Polish territory overnight (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS), demonstrating an adaptation for deeper drone penetration. Poland found 7 drones and missile fragments, indicating an adaptation for combined drone/missile tactics. Операция Z (Voenkor Русской Весны) reports on UAF terrorist attacks on Belgorod causing civilian injuries, and schools/colleges moving to remote learning, indicating a focus on civilian infrastructure. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports Kramatorsk is under shelling again, indicating continued tactical adaptation to target urban areas. Colonelcassad reports a Geranium strike in Cherkasy and Zhytomyr Oblasts on enemy military targets, and drone activity in Lviv Oblast, accompanied by videos showing flashes and explosions over Lviv at night, confirming continued adaptation of deep strike capabilities against military-related targets.
  • NEW INTEL: RF Ministry of Defense (TASS, MoD Russia, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Colonelcassad) confirms massive strikes on Ukrainian defense industry enterprises in Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, and Lviv Oblasts. TASS specifically claims hits on the Lviv Armored Plant and Lviv Aviation Plant, demonstrating an adaptation to target specific defense industry sites. UAF Air Force (Повітряні Сили ЗС України) reports launches of guided aerial bombs by RF tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. The reported construction of new military bases near Minsk, Belarus, capable of hosting Russian "Oreshnik" missiles (РБК-Україна) suggests a strategic adaptation for deploying advanced ballistic missile systems from a new vector, significantly increasing RF's ability to threaten deep Ukrainian targets and exert pressure on NATO.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (РБК-Україна): Posts photos with the caption "Russians covered Kramatorsk's central square, residential areas and market with drones." This indicates an adaptation to use drones for strikes on civilian urban areas.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦) reports a 68-year-old man was injured by an FPV drone attack in Prymorske village, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This is an adaptation of using FPV drones against civilians.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine): Reports "Missile danger!" for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and "Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation to the north of Kharkiv Oblast!". This confirms continued adaptation of air strike operations.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine): Reports "☄️ Загроза застосування балістичного озброєння зі північно-східного напрямку!" (Ballistic missile threat from the northeast!), "Ракета через Сумщину!" (Missile through Sumy region!), and "Ще ракета ➡️ на Сумщину!" (Another missile towards Sumy region!). This confirms continued adaptation of ballistic and cruise missile strikes.
  • NEW INTEL: UAF (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine): Reports "🛵 Ударний БпЛА ➡️ в напрямку Лебедина!" (Strike UAV towards Lebedyn!) and "БпЛА ➡️ в напрямку Чернігова!" (UAV towards Chernihiv!). This confirms continued adaptation of strike UAV operations.
  • NEW: RF Drone Group Towards Poltava: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Полтавщина: група БпЛА повз Диканьку ➡️ курсом на Полтаву." This demonstrates RF's adaptation to sustain deep drone penetration and potentially overwhelm regional air defenses.
  • NEW: Berdychiv Missile Strike: Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" (UAF) and Colonelcassad (RF) both share videos of missile strikes in Berdychiv, Zhytomyr Oblast. This confirms RF's adaptation to target central Ukrainian cities with cruise missiles, likely to exert pressure and cause damage.
  • NEW: RF Drone Groups Towards Kryvyi Rih: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and РБК-Україна (UAF) report "Декілька груп БпЛА ➡️ в напрямку Кривого Рогу." This indicates RF's adaptation for sustained, multi-directional drone attacks on key industrial targets.
  • NEW: RF Drone Towards Odesa: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Several groups of strike UAVs from Mykolaiv region ➡️ towards Odesa region." This confirms RF's adaptation for sustained drone attacks against southern Ukrainian targets.
  • NEW: RF Drone Towards Poltava (Sumy origin): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "🛵 Сумщина: БпЛА ➡️ курсом на Полтавщину." This confirms RF's adaptation for multi-directional and layered drone attacks.
  • NEW: RBK-Ukraina on Dnipropetrovsk Energy Object: РБК-Україна (UAF) posts a photo message stating "😡 Russia hit an energy object in Dnipropetrovsk region with drones." This indicates RF's adaptation to persistently target energy infrastructure across various oblasts.
  • Adaptive Attribution of UAF Strikes: RF IO has rapidly adapted to attribute UAF strikes on Donetsk and Makeevka to Storm Shadow missiles and various UAVs (including new claims of HIMARS impacts), a significant escalation in hybrid warfare. Басурин о главном (RF) actively circulating claims that Zelenskiy's statements about Yarova airstrike are "fake" is a rapid adaptation in RF IO to deny war crimes. ТАСС reporting on Belgorod schools moving to remote learning due to UAF attacks is an adaptation to frame UAF as targeting civilians and justify RF actions. Colonelcassad video about FSB apprehending alleged Ukrainian military intelligence agent in Izhevsk demonstrates adaptation to frame Ukraine as a terrorist state. Операция Z (Voenkor Русской Весны) reports on UAF terrorist attacks on Belgorod causing civilian injuries, and schools/colleges moving to remote learning, framing Ukraine as a terrorist actor. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports intensive shelling of Belgorod and Belgorod region, adapting to claims of UAF attacks.
• Use of Cluster Munitions with Iskander-M: The confirmed Iskander-M missile strike with cluster munitions on UAF positions in Sumy Oblast indicates an adaptation to employ more destructive payloads against ground targets.
• Deliberate Drone Incursions into NATO Airspace with Targeting Intent: The reported entry of RF strike UAVs into Polish airspace towards Rzeszów and now Lublin, coupled with the closure of Rzeszów, Lublin, and Warsaw airports, represents a significant tactical and operational adaptation by RF, directly probing NATO's response and implicitly threatening a critical logistical hub for Ukraine. This is an escalation of hybrid warfare. The reported trajectory of "Shaheds" towards Warsaw via Belarus, if confirmed, represents a further, highly provocative tactical adaptation, indicating an intent to directly threaten a NATO capital and further escalate hybrid operations. The multi-directional drone threat (Lviv, Zhytomyr, Chernivtsi, Lutsk) signifies an adaptation to saturate UAF air defenses. The reported operations of "Anvar" special forces in the border zone indicate a tactical adaptation for cross-border infiltration and precision targeting. Polish PM calling an emergency meeting and the call-up of reservists (Оперативний ЗСУ) are direct responses to this adaptation. Confirmed Polish shootdown of 2 Shaheds over Volyn Oblast (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦) confirms the execution of this adaptation, demonstrating RF's willingness to directly challenge NATO airspace. Mykhailo Podolyak's statement that Russia deliberately attacked Poland with drones confirms this adaptation. The completion of Polish air operations, as reported by ASTRA, while successful defensively, confirms the execution of this MDCOA by RF. The confirmed damage to a residential building and a car in Lublin Voivodeship, Poland, from a Russian drone (STERNENKO, Операция Z), represents a direct tactical adaptation by RF to inflict material damage within NATO territory during such probes, further escalating the hybrid warfare aspect. ASTRA's report of 8 drones crossing into Poland confirms the scaled nature of this adaptation. TASS reports the discovery of two downed UAVs in Poland (one near Belarusian border, one near Ukrainian border), confirming the execution and physical impact of this tactical adaptation. All UAF and Ukrainian government sources explicitly stating the drone incursions into Poland were intentional and large-scale (Zelenskiy / Official et al.) underscores the perceived deliberateness and escalated nature of this adaptation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF) reports Moscow prepared attacks on Poland since July using Polish/Lithuanian SIM cards on UAVs, indicating a pre-planned and adaptive strategy for these incursions. Belarus Ministry of Defense attempting to deflect blame by claiming drones "lost due to EW" (Оперативний ЗСУ, Kotsnews) represents an adaptive IO tactic to mitigate diplomatic fallout from drone incursions. TASS reports Poland will invoke NATO Article 4, representing a significant diplomatic adaptation by RF to escalate pressure on NATO and force formal alliance consultations. Rybar's infographic questioning "Whose drones?" is an adaptive IO tactic to sow doubt and avoid direct attribution for incursions. Janus Putkonen (Finnish pro-RF) publication of "Gerbera drone" photos in Poland, while potentially accurate BDA, serves the IO intent of portraying RF actions as a "test" or "accident" that Poland "failed" to address effectively. PM Tusk's statement (ASTRA) that 19 drones entered Poland overnight and 3 were shot down, is an adaptive narrative aiming to shift blame and alter the geopolitical implications of the incursions. Tusk's statement to TASS that the incident does not constitute war but is a provocation is an adaptive narrative to manage the diplomatic implications. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting Tusk's statement that Poland is closest to armed conflict since WWII highlights the severe and escalating nature of RF adaptation. Alex Parker Returns' video "Война пришла в Польшу" explicitly states the war has come to Poland, confirming RF's provocative adaptation. The Belarusian MOD (Операция Z) statement about exchanging drone data with Poland is an adaptive narrative to portray cooperation and deflect blame. Операция Z reports Macron "resolutely condemned" drones in Poland and promised NATO consultations, demonstrating RF's adaptation to amplify Western reactions. РБК-Україна reports Poland will apply NATO Article 4, which is a significant diplomatic adaptation by Poland in response to RF's hybrid warfare tactics. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Tusk called for "full mobilization" after Russian raid on Poland, indicating a heightened state of alert and a significant political adaptation by Poland. ASTRA reports the Polish Interior Ministry discovered seven drones and one missile fragment. TASS reports NATO applied Article 4 in connection with the UAV incident in Poland, confirming RF's adaptation to trigger formal NATO responses. РБК-Україна reports Poland summoned a Russian diplomat to the carpet, indicating direct diplomatic action following RF incursions, an adaptation by Poland to the hybrid threat. Операция Z (Voenkor Русской Весны) shows photos of a downed drone in the Polish village of Woginy, providing physical evidence of this tactical adaptation. Janus Putkonen (Finnish pro-RF) reports Poland's reaction to "Gerbera" drones, claiming they were unarmed and Belarus had warned of their straying, indicating an RF-aligned IO adaptation to downplay the provocative nature. Военкор Котенок shares photos of another downed drone in Poland, reinforcing the evidence of multiple incursions.
  • NEW INTEL: TASS reports Polish Armed Forces are redeploying units to the border with Belarus, a direct military response to RF actions, indicating RF has achieved the intent to provoke a military reaction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports NATO activated Article 4, confirming the diplomatic adaptation. Colonel Martin O'Donnell (NATO Echelon) states German Patriot PAC-3 systems in Poland were put on combat readiness during the drone incursions, confirming the adaptation to test NATO readiness. РБК-Україна reports drones with Cyrillic inscriptions penetrated 300 km into Poland, demonstrating RF's adaptation for deep penetration. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" shares a video of a Belarusian military official discussing drone interceptions, a likely RF-aligned IO adaptation to deflect blame from Russia. STERNENKO (UAF) reports RF MoD stated that the targets of the strike were allegedly achieved and the shelling of Poland was not planned, with a maximum UAV flight range into the country not exceeding 700 km, indicating an RF attempt to publicly deny intentional incursion. Janus Putkonen (Finnish pro-RF) suggests investigations should precede accusations regarding the Polish incident, indicating an IO adaptation. Alex Parker Returns' image "Они еще ничего даже не начинали" is an IO adaptation to mock German Foreign Minister Baerbock's statement. Два майора's aggressive rhetoric advocating for missile strikes on Warsaw represents a significant adaptation in RF IO to directly threaten a NATO capital and escalate rhetorical aggression.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (TASS): Reports "Lithuanian Foreign Ministry summoned the temporary chargé d'affaires of Russia in the republic, Alexander Yelkin, and handed him a note of protest in connection with the penetration of drones into Polish airspace." This represents a direct diplomatic consequence for RF's continued drone incursions into Polish airspace.
  • NEW INTEL: Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF): Polish FM Sikorski's statement that the Russian chargé d'affaires refused to acknowledge Russian UAVs highlights RF's adaptation for diplomatic denial and obfuscation.
  • NEW INTEL: RF (TASS): Reports fragments of UAVs found in 10 locations in Poland, confirming the execution of deep incursions.
  • NEW: Polish-Belarusian Drone Contact: TASS reports Polish FM Sikorski confirmed contact with Minsk regarding UAV airspace violations on the night of 9-10 September. This represents an adaptation of diplomatic protocols to manage the fallout of cross-border incidents, indicating an attempt to de-escalate or control the narrative.
  • NEW: Slovakian PM on Drone Incursion: Операция Z (RF) shares photo messages quoting Slovakian PM Fico, stating "It is necessary to find out whose they are and whether it was intentional," regarding the drones in Poland. This represents an adaptive IO tactic by RF to sow doubt within NATO regarding the origin and intent of the drone incursions.
  • NEW: UAF on Polish Drone Cost: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF) posts a photo message claiming "Poles today shot down 'Gerbera' decoy drones for $10 thousand with AIM-120C-7 missiles for $1.2 million." This represents a UAF adaptive IO tactic to highlight the economic inefficiency of defending against Russian drones, potentially influencing future Western military aid and air defense strategies.
  • NEW: STERNENKO on Trump's Reaction: STERNENKO (UAF) posts photo messages quoting Trump on Russia's drone violation of Polish airspace: "It's starting!" This represents a UAF adaptive IO tactic to amplify attention from influential international figures to highlight the severity of RF actions against NATO.
  • NEW: Zelenskiy on Drone Attack on Poland (Confidence: HIGH): РБК-Україна (UAF) shares a video of Zelenskiy suggesting the drone attack on Poland could be part of Russian-Belarusian exercises. This is an adaptation by UAF to frame the incursions as part of broader military exercises.
  • NEW: Netherlands F-35s Shot Down RF Drones (Confidence: HIGH): Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UAF) reports Dutch F-35 fighters shot down Russian "Gerbera" UAVs over Poland using AIM-9X missiles. This confirms successful NATO air defense engagement, but