Situation Report

SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - 091200Z SEP 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (Confidence: HIGH)

RF forces continue a concentrated ground offensive on the Pokrovsk axis, with confirmed RF advances in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast ('Khoroshe', Sosnivka, Voronne) and Donetsk Oblast (Zvirove, Myrnohrad approaches, Sofiyivka). TASS, citing Kimakovsky, reports RF forces have broken through Ukrainian defenses near Chynyshyn, southeast of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk). This, if confirmed, represents a significant tactical gain for RF on the primary axis of advance. Intense combat is also reported near Krasny Liman, DPR, and the RF 103rd Regiment is advancing towards Konstantinovka. UAF reports clashes near Vovchansk, Ambarne, Kamyanka (South Slobozhansky/Kharkiv direction), Kupyansk, Pischane (Kupyansk direction), Karpivka, Hrekivka, Serednye, Drobysheve, Shandryholove, Derylove (Lyman direction), Serebryanka, Hryhorivka, Yampil, Siversk (Sieversk direction), Markove, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Stupochky, Minkivka (Kramatorsk direction), Poltavka, Scherbynivka, Pleschiyivka (Toretsk direction), Shakhove, Vilne, Kotlyne, Novopidhorodnye, Novoekonomichne, Rodynske, Myrolubivka, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Promin, Lysivka, Udachne, Dachne, Novoukrayinka and towards Novopavlivka (Pokrovsk direction), Komyshuvakha, Zelenyi Hai, Obratne, Olhivske, Oleksandrohrad and towards Ivanivka, Sosnivka, Filiya (Novopavlivka direction), Plavni, Mala Tokmachka, Stepnohirsk and Novodanylivka (Orikhiv direction). UAF repelled 9 RF assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. "Z комитет + карта СВО" claims advances at Kolodezi (Lyman direction) and Sofiyivka. "Сливочный каприз" reports localized RF control in the Artemivsk-Hryhorivka area, and shows activity of Russian Naval Infantry near Sumy (Alekseevka). Extensive damage observed in Pokrovsk via aerial footage. Colonelcassad provides a tactical map for the Krasnoliman direction and reports RF advances towards the Dairy Canning Plant in Kupyansk. New RF ground activity reported on the Siverske direction. UAF 63rd Brigade's drone pilots are actively targeting RF forces attempting to advance into Torske and Zarichne. STERNENKO (UAF) reports drone pilots from the Phoenix Aviation Systems (Phoenix Gv BAS) halted another Russian mechanized assault on the Pokrovsk axis. UAF General Staff reports the deoccupation of Zarichne, Donetsk Oblast, by the 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skela". RF MOD claims destruction of a UAF robotic complex near Kleban-Byk lake. TASS, citing Marochko, reports Russian army units, having advanced in the Kremensky forests, LPR, have taken control of approximately 3 km of the administrative border of the region along the Seversky Donets River. This indicates localized RF gains on the Luhansk axis. Rybar provides a cartographic overview (video) showing Russian advances in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in late August/early September, including the capture of Novoselivka, and subsequent UAF counterattacks aimed at liberating occupied territories such as Malievka and Kamyishevakha. The video highlights dynamic frontlines and the strategic importance of locations for controlling roads and terrain features, including control of the H-15 highway. This confirms a highly contested situation with localized gains and losses in Zaporizhzhia. WarGonzo provides a front line summary (photo message) for the morning of 09.09.25, with tactical maps for Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy regions. These maps will require detailed analysis to ascertain exact claims but broadly confirm ongoing combat across these axes. "Воин DV" reports on drone operators from the RF 29th Guards Army destroying UAF personnel and automotive equipment during recent offensive operations on the Vremevka direction. This confirms continued RF offensive action on the Vremevka axis with drone support. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) claims the Izium-Barvinkove route, leading to the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, is no longer safe for UAF forces due to RF drone activity, suggesting RF is expanding drone interdiction efforts on critical UAF logistical routes. TASS, citing the RF MoD, reports that "Southern" group fighters destroyed a UAV control point and mortars near Berestok, DPR. This indicates continued RF targeting of UAF command and fire support assets in Donetsk. TASS, citing Kimakovsky, reports RF UAV operators have established fire control over UAF logistical routes near Krasny Liman. This further corroborates RF efforts to interdict UAF supply lines.

Deep strikes persist on Ukrainian energy, industrial, and civilian infrastructure. Confirmed damage to the Sumy Oblast Administration (OVA) building, the Ukrainian Government Headquarters in Kyiv, the Sokil ice arena in Kyiv, and the Cabinet of Ministers building in Kyiv (Iskander-K cruise missile, not Shahed, confirmed by Defense Express, UAF sources, and Yermak). A new strike on Dobropillia in Donetsk Oblast has caused significant destruction to a multi-story residential building. UAF maintains a defensive posture, conducts counter-drone operations, and executes deep strikes into RF territory (Ilsky Oil Refinery, Druzhba oil pipeline, Rosneft gas station in Klimovo, Krasnodar Krai refinery, NPS "Vtorovo" in Vladimir Oblast, Penza gas pipelines, Saratov Oblast oil pipeline, Belgorod Oblast oil depot), and on occupied Donetsk and Makeevka. Damage to the Kremenchuk bridge has been confirmed; however, automotive traffic on the Kryukiv bridge has reportedly been restored, and electricity has been fully restored in Kremenchuk. UAF Falcon Squad has reportedly damaged an RF TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" heavy flamethrower system on the Vovchansk axis. UAF reports destruction of an RF BM-27 "Uragan" MLRS by an FPV drone 47 km from the frontline. UAF has captured an RF soldier in the Serebryansk forest area. TASS reports UAF mass drone attacks on Donetsk and Makeevka, injuring civilians. RF tactical aviation launches KABs on Sumy Oblast and on Donetsk region, including northern Kharkiv Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast is partially de-energized, with causes being investigated. RF reconnaissance UAV reported in Black Sea heading towards Odesa. TASS reports school No. 20 in Kalininsky district, Donetsk, damaged by UAF UAV, with two people hospitalized. WarGonzo reports UAF drone attack in Donetsk park, injuring four, including children. TASS reports that Kyiv deliberately struck children and parents in the "Gulliver" park in Donetsk (Zakharova). TASS also reports RF reserves the right to respond to this attack. Colonelcassad reports a strike on a substation in Novhorod-Siverskyi. UAF Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Administration confirm RF artillery and FPV drone attacks on Nikopol region, including Nikopol city and several surrounding communities, resulting in damage to residential infrastructure and civilian casualties. Basurin reports on consequences of alleged "massive attacks by Ukrainian militants on Donetsk and Makeevka," featuring video compilation of damage to civilian infrastructure, including residential and educational buildings, with emergency services responding. TASS reports UAF used Storm Shadow missiles for combined strikes on Donetsk and Makeevka, citing operational services. Colonelcassad alleges a Storm Shadow/Scalp-EG was shot down in Kuibyshevsky district, Donetsk, damaging School #62. "Два майора" reports two civilians killed and sixteen wounded in Donetsk and Makeevka from combined Storm Shadow and UAV attacks, citing Pushilin. "Операция Z" and "WarGonzo" amplify similar claims of civilian casualties in Donetsk and Makeevka due to Storm Shadow and UAV attacks, with visual evidence of damage to a residential building and alleged missile debris. Kotsnews reports video evidence of significant damage to a multi-story apartment building in Makeevka from a UAF drone/missile strike, claiming one fatality and injuries. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims OTRK Iskander-M RF Armed Forces struck an industrial facility in Druzhkivka. This confirms an RF long-range strike on an industrial target. WarGonzo reports two fatalities in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) due to "massive shelling." This further corroborates RF claims of UAF strikes on civilian areas in occupied territories. NEW: Mash na Donbasse reports power outages in several districts of Donetsk, Makeevka, and Ilovaisk, indicating sustained RF targeting of energy infrastructure in occupied territories.

UAV activity continues to be significant. RF UAVs reported in Kyiv Oblast (PVO active, alert lifted at 00:21Z SEP 08), strike UAV inbound to Chornomorske, multiple groups to eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Pavlohradskyi district), and movement from Sumy to Chernihiv Oblasts. Trypilska TPP is under drone attack, causing power outages. A downed Shahed is reported over Odesa. Multiple groups of RF UAVs are moving from Chernihiv to Kyiv Oblast. A new air alert for Kyiv was declared at 23:34Z (07 SEP), with a Shahed-type UAV confirmed inbound from the south at 23:47Z (07 SEP), and lifted at 00:21Z (08 SEP). Colonelcassad posts photos showing extensive damage to school No. 20 in Donetsk, alleging a direct drone hit, with Pushilin reporting six residential buildings and a school damaged. TASS reports an electricity supply disruption in Yasynuvata, affecting 15,000 subscribers. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches on Donetsk region and Sumy Oblast. TASS reports a captured Ukrainian soldier alleging UAF uses school buses for mobilized personnel transport, a clear RF propaganda effort. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has issued an "Attention" alert. RF MOD claims "North" group fighters destroyed UAF cluster points in Sumy Oblast. The death toll in Kyiv from yesterday's attack has risen to three confirmed fatalities, including a child. Explosions have been reported in Kherson. Minenergo (Ukraine) and Operativny ZSU report Russia massively attacked a thermal power generation facility in Kyiv Oblast. Zaporizhzhia OVA reports a difficult night (5-6 SEP) for Zaporizhzhia, with two fatalities and one injury in Polohy district due to shelling, and a total of 444 strikes resulting in damage to 16 multi-story buildings and a kindergarten, with three injuries in Zaporizhzhia region and a 6-year-old child wounded in Kupiansk from mortar attacks. UAF Air Force reports 112 out of 142 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed overnight, with over 100 being Shaheds. Syrsky reports UAF regained 58 sq. km of territory in August, liberating several settlements. Ukrainian Ministry of Energy reports an attack on a thermal generation facility in Kyiv Oblast. An RF strike on infrastructure in Shostka, Sumy Oblast, has caused power outages. UAF reports that automotive traffic on the Kremenchuk bridge has been restored. RF forces from the 69th Brigade are conducting assault actions on the Vremevka direction, using FPV drones and TM mines against enemy dugouts and personnel. UAF Air Force reports hostile UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Pavlohrad and Petropavlivka) and Kharkiv Oblast (Bliznyuky/Lozova). UAF Air Force reports KAB launches towards Kramatorsk. UAF Air Force reports high-speed targets towards Kramatorsk. UAF Air Force reports hostile strike UAVs threatening Zhytomyr Oblast. UAF reports RF attacked Dobropillia (Donetsk Oblast) at 080400Z SEP 25, causing significant destruction to a multi-story residential building. Colonelcassad has published a "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine 07 September - 08 September 2025," which includes video of fires/explosions in Kyiv. RF MOD claims PVO forces shot down 12 Ukrainian UAVs over Crimea and one over the Black Sea between 080800Z and 081100Z SEP 25. РБК-Україна reports an RF attack on a DTEK enrichment plant in Donetsk Oblast, completely paralyzing its operations. Colonelcassad reports on drone operations by RF forces over the right bank of the Dnipro near Kherson and on the Kherson-Mykolaiv highway, impacting UAF logistics. MoD Russia publishes a report on the progress of the special military operation. UAF reports 12 fatalities and 27 injured (including a 6-year-old child) in Kupiansk, Kozacha Lopan, and Khotimlya between 1-7 SEP due to RF strikes. RF claims a UAF "Lord" UAV with Starlink was found on the Azov Sea coast, suggesting UAF reconnaissance activity. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the strike on the Cabinet of Ministers building was by an Iskander-K cruise missile (9M727), not a Shahed. "РБК-Україна" corroborates this, emphasizing the precise nature of the strike. The Presidential Brigade of UAF claims to have successfully shot down an Iskander-K cruise missile using a ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft system. Kadyrov (RF) claims an Akhmat Special Purpose Regiment destroyed a Ukrainian tank (likely T-72 variant) with a drone in the Kharkiv direction (Group Izum of 204th Regiment). RF reports destruction of a Starlink station and UAF infantry on the Kramatorsk-Druzhkivka direction (TASS). UAF 40th Coastal Defense Brigade is employing Barracuda unmanned surface vessels (USVs) in Kherson Oblast. RF reportedly struck UAF repair facilities in Kremenchuk with Geran UAVs (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). Colonelcassad shows tactical maps depicting RF advances towards Sofiyivka and Shakhove, and around Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk). "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" reports a new RF maritime drone operating on fiber optics, capable of various tasks (Defense Express). "Fighterbomber" posts a video from an aircraft cockpit at sunrise, showing a bright artificial light source illuminating an area below, potentially indicating RF reconnaissance or ground activity. UAF Air Force reports an enemy UAV (Shahed-type) approaching Sumy from the northeast. UAF Air Force reports a hostile UAV south of Zaporizhzhia city. РБК-Україна reports Ukrainian drones attacked NPS "Vtorovo" in Vladimir Oblast, RF. UAF issues air alert for ballistic missile threat in several oblasts. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk region. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration re-issues an "ATTENTION" alert. The Air Force of Ukraine issues a ballistic missile threat from the northeast. Colonelcassad posts a video of the Iskander impact on the Cabinet of Ministers building, dated September 7, Kyiv, with "UNITED24" and "Оперативний інформ" overlays, likely from a UAF source. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video allegedly showing a long-range Ukrainian munition striking the 41st Army command post in occupied Donetsk, with accompanying photo messages. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports multiple hits on military objects in occupied Donetsk, with consequences being clarified. UAF Air Force reports hostile strike UAVs in the Black Sea heading towards southern Odesa Oblast. Basurin reports two civilians killed and sixteen wounded in Donetsk, citing Pushilin. Mash na Donbasse video shows a street scene with an explosion near trash bins (CAMO1 watermark), alleging an attack in DPR. РБК-Україна reports new Shahed launches over Ukraine. Air Force of Ukraine reports hostile strike UAVs on the border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, kursing northwest. Air Force of Ukraine reports KAB launches by RF tactical aviation on the border of Donetsk, Dnipropetropets, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Air Force of Ukraine reports a launch of Tu-95MS strategic bombers from Olenya airfield, Murmansk Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration confirms a large explosion and intense fire in Zaporizhzhia, with video evidence of GSU DSNS fire suppression and ASTRA reporting a residential building fire, and a 66-year-old woman injured. UAF Air Force reports hostile reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy Oblast (Boromlya area) and on the border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. This indicates persistent RF aerial reconnaissance efforts. Air Force of Ukraine issues a ballistic missile threat from the northeast. This indicates an immediate, high-level air threat. UAF Air Force reports "high-speed targets" continuing on the same course (Khotiyn/Mykolayivka), indicating ongoing RF aerial threats in Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force and Оперативний ЗСУ report 60 of 84 RF UAVs were shot down/suppressed overnight. This is a new, lower total for RF drone attacks but a good UAF interception rate. РБК-Україна further clarifies the overnight attack involved 84 drones, 50 of which were Shaheds. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims UAF is broadcasting footage of fires in Zaporizhzhia after RF FPV drone strikes, while alleging the homes were already uninhabited. This is RF propaganda attempting to discredit UAF reporting of civilian casualties. Oleg Synehubov, Head of Kharkiv OVA, reports 9 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes over the past day, confirming continued RF shelling activity. ASTRA reports UAF unmanned systems units struck NPS "Vtorovo" in Vladimir Oblast again, with satellite imagery (presumably confirming fuel tank damage). This provides further evidence of sustained UAF deep strike capability on RF logistics. ТАСС, citing Kimakovsky, reports RF army "practically destroyed" two companies of Latin American mercenaries recently redeployed to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and conducted airstrikes on their surviving groups. This is a significant (if unverified) RF claim of success against foreign fighters and a likely propaganda effort. Операция Z and Russian Spring War Correspondents (Военкоры Русской Весны) post photo messages of alleged nighttime strikes on Zaporizhzhia, showing fires in a building. While the content is limited, it indicates ongoing RF targeting of urban areas. ASTRA reports a UAV attack on Mariupol airport, resulting in one RF serviceman killed, one wounded, and one armored vehicle destroyed. This indicates continued UAF deep strike capability on occupied infrastructure. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video of a Ukrainian unit (likely drone operators) engaging two Russian soldiers in a dense bush area near Chasiv Yar with ordnance from a drone, implying successful target neutralization. Zelenskyy states RF struck a pension payment point in Yarova, Donetsk Oblast, with an aviation bomb, killing over 20 civilians. This, if confirmed, is a severe war crime. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posts photos related to a strike in Yenakievo. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts video claiming GUR special forces successfully struck and destroyed two expensive RF air defense radar systems ('Podlet' and 'Nebo') in Crimea. TASS reports RF forces destroyed a pickup truck carrying British radios for UAF in Konstantinovka. This indicates continued RF targeting of UAF logistics and equipment. Воин DV reports the 36th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade used "soulless birds" (drones) to swiftly destroy an enemy tank, indicating RF continued effective drone warfare against UAF armor. "Военкор Котенок" posts a video showing a "precise hit" on a UAF temporary deployment point (PVD) in Kirovsk. The video shows soldiers, a destroyed vehicle, and an explosion, with the caption indicating the 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade of UAF. This suggests an RF strike on a UAF forward position. Odesa schools have received warnings due to a Shahed threat (РБК-Україна), indicating a new immediate threat to the region. A ballistic missile threat has been issued for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarivskyi and Dnipropetrovskyi districts), indicating an immediate aerial threat. The Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office reports over 20 dead and dozens wounded from a "cynical war crime" by Russia against peaceful Ukrainian population, with photo evidence of severe destruction, reinforcing the report of the aviation bomb strike in Yarova. Oleg Synehubov, Head of Kharkiv OVA, reports one man was injured as a result of enemy shelling in Malodanylivska hromada. UAF GUR sources confirm another major deep strike, with a pipeline in Saratov Oblast, Russia, being detonated. РБК-Україна reports a fire at an oil depot in Belgorod Oblast following a drone attack. NEW: STERNENKO reports the number of victims of the aviation strike on Yarova has risen to 23 killed and 18 wounded. This is a significant escalation of civilian casualties. NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts drone footage targeting what it claims are UAF UAV control points ("ПУ БПЛА") in residential areas, showing direct hits on houses. NEW: Kadyrov_95 (RF) posts drone footage showing strikes on what appear to be UAF fortified positions in a wooded area on the Kharkiv direction, indicating continued RF tactical air-ground integration.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (Confidence: HIGH)

Conditions remain generally clear and favorable for ongoing air operations by both sides, including missile and UAV strikes across most of Ukraine. This is supported by continued high volumes of RF UAV activity (including the recent strike in Zaporizhzhia, new activity in Chernihiv Oblast, and the recent drone threat in Lipetsk, now lifted) and ongoing UAF drone operations (demonstrated by RF claims of 31 UAVs shot down overnight, and UAF claims of 3 shot down over Dnipropetrovsk, and now 60 of 84 UAVs). The RF use of FPV drones on the Vremevka direction and for strikes in Konstantinovka, DPR, implies good visibility and stable atmospheric conditions for precision drone operations in those areas. However, UAF "РБК-Україна" reports a thunderstorm approaching Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast (previous report), indicating a potential shift in weather patterns that could impact aerial operations in the capital region within the next 6-12 hours. Heavy rainfall has caused significant flooding in Kyiv, which will impede ground movement, disrupt local logistics, and impact civilian life. Current warnings for drone threats in Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts indicate continued favorable conditions for RF UAV operations in those regions, suggesting localized weather variations. Air alerts for ballistic missile threats continue to be dynamic across multiple oblasts, indicating persistent threat windows. The recent thunderstorm in Zaporizhzhia may temporarily affect drone operations, though RF strikes still occurred. Continued confirmed KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast and air alerts for aviation threats in Dnipropetrovsk indicate that conditions for tactical air operations remain favorable for RF. New groups of RF UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast, kursing southwest, confirm favorable conditions for drone operations in northern Ukraine. The latest KAB launches on Sumy Oblast also confirm favorable conditions for tactical aviation in northern Ukraine. The lifting of the "yellow level" UAV threat in Lipetsk Oblast by Governor Artamonov indicates clear conditions in that specific RF region for the time being. Colonelcassad's messages "БУДЬТЕ ВНИМАТЕЛЬНЫ и ОСТОРОЖНЫ!" (BE CAREFUL and CAUTIOUS!), accompanied by photos of alleged unexploded ordnance/mines, implicitly suggests ground conditions are stable enough for personnel movement and the presence of these hazards. The presence of RF reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy Oblast and on the Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk border, and a new ballistic missile threat from the northeast, confirms continued clear weather for aerial operations across these regions. The continued reporting of "high-speed targets" in Sumy Oblast indicates continued favorable weather for RF missile/aviation operations in that area. UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" reports "Good morning, people of Ukraine!", an informal greeting that, while lacking direct weather reporting, generally implies acceptable conditions for daily activities, including military operations. UAF Air Force reports hostile reconnaissance UAVs in northeastern Sumy, Kharkiv, southeastern Dnipropetropets, and Odesa oblasts, with assets engaged for their shootdown, confirming continued favorable weather for RF aerial reconnaissance and UAF counter-UAV operations. UAF Air Force reports new Shahed launches from Bryansk, Kursk, Oryol, and Crimea, indicating suitable weather for drone operations from these launch sites. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches on northern Kharkiv Oblast, confirming continued favorable conditions for tactical aviation. РБК-Україна reports drones in Kyiv Oblast, with PVO active, implying continued clear skies for drone operations in the capital region. TASS reports heavy rain in Abkhazia, causing urban flooding, indicating localized severe weather events, though not directly impacting current combat zones in Ukraine. РБК-Україна also reports over 10,000 people without power in Kyiv Oblast, citing unspecified causes (could be weather or strike related). The current ballistic missile threat for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarivskyi and Dnipropetrovskyi districts) indicates continued clear weather suitable for RF ballistic missile launches and air defense operations. The Shahed threat to Odesa schools suggests favorable conditions for drone operations in southern Ukraine. The UAF GUR confirmed deep strike on a pipeline in Saratov Oblast, Russia, implies continued favorable conditions for covert operations or long-range drone activity in that region. The reported drone attack on the Belgorod oil depot indicates continued favorable weather conditions for UAF drone operations into RF territory. NEW: Oleg Synehubov, Head of Kharkiv OVA, reports an expected thunderstorm in Kharkiv in the next hour, which could temporarily impact local air operations and ground movement.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (Confidence: HIGH)

• RF:
  • Ground Forces: RF continues to concentrate forces on the Pokrovsk axis, with confirmed deployment of marine infantry and "Somali" battalion elements, and imagery showing a military vehicle with "Russian Naval Infantry" insignia. TASS, citing Kimakovsky, reports RF forces have broken through Ukrainian defenses near Chynyshyn, southeast of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk). The RF 103rd Regiment is actively engaging UAF infantry and pushing towards Konstantinovka. Localized advances are ongoing in Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. Fierce battles are reported near Krasny Liman, DPR. "🅾️tvazhnye" units are conducting high-intensity engagements near Pokrovsk. "Сливочный каприз" reports from Krasny Liman-Kirovsk sector confirm active combat, and also depicts Russian Naval Infantry operations near Sumy (Alekseevka). "Anvar" special forces are reportedly active near Sumy and Chernihiv border. RF claims capture of Western military equipment (Bradley IFV, VAB APC) in Kursk Oblast. RF (Операция Z) claims Russian forces, after taking Khoroshe, have advanced into Sosnivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian police report that RF forces mined parts of residential areas in Kherson overnight. WarGonzo provides a front line summary for the morning of 08 SEP, including tactical maps for Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Donetsk regions. MoD Russia has released a video showcasing Grad MLRS crews of the 44th Army Corps (Sever Group of Forces) eliminating camouflaged AFU positions and manpower clusters in Sumy region. Воин DV reports "Boston partisans" (69th Brigade) are conducting assault actions on the Vremevka direction, using FPV drones and TM mines against enemy dugouts and personnel. Narodnaya militsiya DNR posts a video claiming destruction of UAF infantry and positions in the Vladimirovka area. RF FSB has detained a Ukrainian saboteur in Stavropol. RF is aiming to capture Konstantinovka this autumn and is advancing on two directions (RF claim). Colonelcassad posts a map indicating RF advances in the Kupyansk area, specifically towards the Dairy Canning Plant. TASS, citing Andrey Marochko, claims RF has " knocked out" UAF from Hlushchenkove, Kharkiv Oblast, and UAF has withdrawn to a second line of defense. This, if true, indicates a localized RF tactical gain for RF and a UAF repositioning. TASS reports RF MOD claims destruction of a UAF robotic complex near Kleban-Byk lake and shows "Baba Yaga" drone reconnaissance in the Pleshcheyevka/Kleban-Byk area. РБК-Україна (citing ISW) reports RF is preparing for an assault on Pokrovsk. TASS, citing Marochko, reports Russian army units have advanced in the Kremensky forests, LPR, and taken control of approximately 3 km of the administrative border along the Seversky Donets River. This confirms a localized RF territorial gain. Colonelcassad posts video of operators from the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade "Vostok" demonstrating effective use of combat drones, indicating continued high-skill drone operations by RF special forces. Rybar's video analysis confirms Russian advances in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including the capture of Novoselivka, and emphasizes the strategic importance of locations for road control, indicating ongoing, dynamic ground operations with localized RF gains. "Воин DV" video (RF source) explicitly states "Operators of the UAV 29th Guards Army destroy enemy manpower and automotive equipment during recent offensive actions on the Vremevka direction." This directly implicates elements of the 29th Guards Army in current offensive actions. TASS, citing Kimakovsky, reports UAF has redeployed up to two companies of Latin American mercenaries to the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction. This suggests RF is identifying and targeting foreign fighter deployments and may indicate a build-up of UAF defensive forces in this critical area. RF's subsequent claim of "practically destroying" them and launching airstrikes further reinforces their intent to eliminate foreign fighters. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source) claims RF drones are operating over the Izium-Barvinkove route, suggesting RF is increasing interdiction/reconnaissance on UAF supply lines to the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. TASS, citing the RF MoD, reports "Southern" group fighters destroyed a UAV control point and mortars near Berestok, DPR. This indicates successful RF targeting of UAF tactical C2 and fire support assets. TASS, citing Kimakovsky, reports that RF UAV operators have established "fire control" over UAF logistical routes near Krasny Liman. This suggests RF is actively using drones for interdiction and is attempting to disrupt UAF supply lines. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) claims "Yunakivka is ours!" in Sumy Oblast, supported by Rybar's report on "Vostok" Group of Forces activity. This indicates persistent RF ground claims in Sumy Oblast, but the operational extent remains unverified. "Два майора" (RF source) is actively fundraising for "assault troops" in the Sumy direction, requesting drones, suggesting ongoing commitment to this sector. Kotsnews video shows Russian Lt. Col. Igor Belenkov overseeing receipt of supplies (drones, electronics) for units in LNR, highlighting ongoing logistical support. "Два майора" video shows aftermath of engagement with injured RF soldiers being evacuated from a rural area, suggesting active combat. Colonelcassad reports Russian military court sentenced four Ukrainian citizens for involvement in sabotage group targeting military airfield, NPP power lines, and weapons caches in RF, indicating active counter-sabotage operations. TASS reports UAF abandoned wounded comrades after an airstrike in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (RF claim), showing aerial footage of an explosion, indicating continued RF airstrikes on UAF positions. "Два майора" posts photos of Sochi mayor inspecting damage, including a damaged cemetery, following a drone attack, suggesting a localized RF damage assessment following a UAF drone attack. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts video of RF MLRS operating on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, indicating continued heavy fire support for ground offensives. Воин DV posts video showing RF 69th Separate Brigade capturing a UAF soldier, indicating localized tactical successes and ongoing ground engagements. Народная милиция ДНР posts video showing RF special purpose units using FPV drones to strike UAF positions, equipment, and drones, confirming active drone-supported ground operations. Сили оборони Півдня України provides video of UAF strikes on RF positions, vehicle, and infantry in Kamian'ske village, Zaporizhzhia, confirming RF presence and UAF counter-actions in the area. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video showing captured Russian soldiers from the Dobropillia direction, claiming they express gratitude for humane treatment. This could be either a genuine display or a propaganda effort. Liveuamap Source reports UAF clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Stroyivka (South Slobozhansky/Kharkiv), Myrne, Kupyansk, Petropavlivka, towards Novoplatonivka (Kupyansk), Kolodyazi, Novomykhaylivka, Hluschenkove, Torske, towards Shandryholove (Lyman), Hryhorivka, Serebryanka, Vyyimka, towards Yampil (Sieversk), Minkivka, Stupochky, Bila Hora, towards Bondarne (Kramatorsk), Toretsk, Pleschiyivka, Scherbynivka, Katerynivka, Poltavka (Toretsk), Rodynske, Myrolubivka, Promin, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novopidhorodne, Dachne, Novoukrayinka, Sukhyy Yar, Shakhove, Molodetske, towards Pokrovsk, Toretske, Novoekonomichne, Novopavlivka (Pokrovsk), Filiya, Yalta, Piddubne, Tolstoy, Lisne, Oleksandrohrad, Sichneve, Komyshuvakha, Novoivanivka, Zelenyy Hay, Maliyivka, Novoheorhiyivka, Zelene Pole, Zaporizke, Obratne, Olhivske, Poltavka (Novopavlivka), Antonivsky bridge (Kherson). This comprehensive list confirms widespread and persistent RF ground engagement across the eastern and southern axes, consistent with their offensive posture. Воин DV also reports on the situation in the Southern-Donetsk direction within the "Vostok" Group of Forces' area of responsibility. Basurin о главном reports RF forces are confidently advancing on the Siverske direction, supported by drone footage of tactical strikes. Colonelcassad video shows "Anvar" special forces unit destroying Ukrainian militants and equipment in the border areas of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. TASS reports RF forces destroyed a pickup truck carrying British radios for UAF in Konstantinovka, implying active RF targeting of UAF logistics. "Военкор Котенок" posts video claiming a "precise hit" on a UAF temporary deployment point in Kirovsk, with the caption identifying the 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade of UAF, suggesting a successful RF strike on a UAF forward position. Воин DV reports the 36th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade used drones to destroy an enemy tank, indicating RF ground units are actively integrating drones for anti-armor operations. Colonelcassad claims "Yunakivka is ours!" (Sumy Oblast), reinforcing previous unverified claims. "Два майора" posts video showing Russian military personnel detaining an individual in military camouflage, labelled "terrorist accomplice" from Astrakhan. This indicates ongoing internal security operations within RF. Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны posts a video from a pro-Russian source, appearing to show Russian soldiers in a wooded area, some possibly injured or deceased. The video quality is low. This suggests ongoing combat or its immediate aftermath. Colonelcassad posts video of the aftermath of an attack in Yarova, including damaged vehicles and casualties, blaming UAF for a "provocation" against civilians receiving pensions, similar to the Kramatorsk attack. This reinforces RF's immediate denial and counter-IO. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts night vision video showing the engagement and apparent destruction of a vehicle by what appears to be missile/explosive ordnance by "Northern" Group of Forces. This confirms continued RF offensive actions and nighttime strike capabilities. NEW: "Сливочный каприз" (RF) posts photo messages with the caption "09.09.25 Krasnoarmeysk - Muravka," implying ongoing tactical activity and engagements in the Pokrovsk direction. NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF) posts drone footage showing strikes on what it claims are UAF UAV control points in residential areas along the front line, implying RF is actively targeting UAF drone command infrastructure within inhabited zones. NEW: Kadyrov_95 (RF) posts drone footage captioned "Kharkiv direction," showing reconnaissance and strikes on what appear to be UAF fortified positions in a wooded area, indicating continued RF ground-shaping and tactical offensive actions in Kharkiv Oblast. NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF) posts a video titled "Only bones left," depicting extremely emaciated individuals, possibly POWs or victims of neglect. This may represent RF internal challenges or be intended for propaganda to highlight suffering.
  • Air Assets: RF maintains overwhelming long-range strike capability, launching 84 UAVs (50 Shaheds) overnight. Tactical aviation continues KAB launches on Sumy Oblast and Donetsk region, including northern Kharkiv Oblast. Multiple groups of UAVs are detected in Chernihiv, Kyiv, and eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. New confirmation of a fresh batch of Su-35S multirole fighter jets delivered to the VKS. RF reconnaissance UAV from Black Sea is heading towards Odesa. Trypilska TPP is under drone attack, causing power outages. A downed Shahed is reported over Odesa. Multiple groups of RF UAVs are moving from Chernihiv to Kyiv Oblast. A new air alert for Kyiv was declared at 23:34Z (07 SEP), with a Shahed-type UAV confirmed inbound from the south at 23:47Z (07 SEP), and lifted at 00:21Z (08 SEP). Colonelcassad posts photos showing extensive damage to school No. 20 in Donetsk, alleging a direct drone hit, with Pushilin reporting six residential buildings and a school damaged. TASS reports an electricity supply disruption in Yasynuvata, affecting 15,000 subscribers. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches on Donetsk region and Sumy Oblast. TASS reports a captured Ukrainian soldier alleging UAF uses school buses for mobilized personnel transport, a clear RF propaganda effort. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has issued an "Attention" alert. RF MOD claims "North" group fighters destroyed UAF cluster points in Sumy Oblast. The death toll in Kyiv from yesterday's attack has risen to three confirmed fatalities, including a child. Explosions have been reported in Kherson. Minenergo (Ukraine) and Operativny ZSU report Russia massively attacked a thermal power generation facility in Kyiv Oblast. RF drones (BPLA) attacked the Trypilska TPP near Kyiv overnight. RF MOD claims PVO forces shot down 12 Ukrainian UAVs over Crimea and one over the Black Sea. Fighterbomber video shows multiple Ka-52 'Alligator' attack helicopters operating in Ukrainian airspace. Colonelcassad publishes a video of a strike on the Trypilska TPP. РБК-Україна reports a DTEK enrichment plant was attacked in Donetsk Oblast, paralyzing its operations. The launch of Tu-95MS strategic bombers from Olenya airfield, Murmansk Oblast, indicates a high-level strategic air operation. The new threat of UAV attacks in Lipetsk Oblast (Usansky, Dobrinsky, Gryazinsky districts) indicates UAF deep strikes against RF territory are prompting RF air defense activation. RF UAV strike confirmed in Zaporizhzhia. Sochi airport temporarily restricted operations, but has since resumed normal operations, indicating a short-term disruption. TASS and ASTRA, citing RF MOD, report 31 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions overnight, confirming continued RF air defense activity. ASTRA reports RF bombers dropped 5 more aerial bombs on Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports an Iskander-M strike on an industrial facility in Druzhkivka, confirming continued high-precision strike capabilities. The Air Force of Ukraine's ballistic missile threat from the northeast indicates RF's persistent and immediate strategic strike capability. UAF Air Force reports "high-speed targets" (likely missiles) continuing on the same course towards Khotiyn/Mykolayivka in Sumy Oblast, indicating an ongoing, immediate aerial strike capability. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF forces destroyed "Lyut" Brigade warehouses in Kramatorsk, suggesting continued targeting of UAF military infrastructure. UAF Air Force reports Shahed launches from Bryansk, Kursk, Oryol, and Crimea, indicating diverse launch locations and continued air strike capabilities. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches on northern Kharkiv Oblast, confirming persistent tactical air-to-ground strike capabilities. Mash na Donbasse reports damage to two schools and a kindergarten in Donetsk, reinforcing RF's capability to inflict damage on civilian areas, regardless of intent. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Prymorske of Zaporizhzhia region, Mykolayivka of Kherson region. This confirms continued RF tactical air support. ASTRA reports a UAV attack on Mariupol airport, resulting in RF casualties and equipment loss, confirming RF presence and vulnerability to UAF strikes on occupied territory. Colonelcassad's "Chronicle of strikes" confirms sustained RF air/missile strike activity and damage. TASS, citing RF MoD, claims destruction of a UAF S-300 air defense system launcher and control cabin within the last 24 hours. A ballistic missile threat has been issued for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarivskyi and Dnipropetrovskyi districts), indicating an immediate aerial threat. Odesa schools have received warnings due to a Shahed threat (РБК-Україна), confirming active RF drone targeting in the south. RF continues to use tactical aviation, evidenced by the engagement of a vehicle by "Northern" Group of Forces. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, citing RF MOD, claims RF PVO forces shot down 5 cruise missiles, 5 HIMARS rockets, and 230 UAF UAVs in the last 24 hours.
  • Naval Assets: Colonelcassad reports on a new RF-developed USV, "Ушкуйник," operating on fiber optics. The visual evidence shows a remote-controlled boat, suggesting a potential for advanced, stealthier maritime reconnaissance or attack capabilities, though its specific military applications are unconfirmed. ASTRA reports on the development of this fiber-optic maritime drone, confirming its existence.
  • Control Measures: Lipetsk Oblast Governor Artamonov has reported the lifting of the "yellow level" UAV threat, indicating a return to normal air defense status in that region. TASS reports Putin's schedule was not affected by the drone attack on Sochi (Peskov), an IO effort to project continuity of C2. TASS reports no evacuation of Russian diplomats from Nepal is planned, indicating a stable assessment of the situation despite ongoing civilian unrest.
  • Internal Security: "Два майора" posts video showing Russian military personnel detaining an individual in military camouflage, labelled "terrorist accomplice" from Astrakhan. This confirms ongoing internal security operations within RF.
• UAF:
  • Air Defense: UAF successfully repelled an air attack in Izmailskyi district, Odesa Oblast. UAF Air Force reports successfully shooting down/suppressing 112 out of 142 enemy UAVs overnight. The Presidential Brigade of UAF claims to have successfully shot down an Iskander-K cruise missile using a ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft system. Air alert in Zaporizhzhia lifted, implying successful interception or conclusion of threat. Air alert in Sevastopol by occupation authorities. Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Administration reports UAF PVO shot down 3 drones over Dnipropetropets Oblast overnight. Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih is "controlled," implying effective local defense. UAF Air Force reports engagement of assets against hostile reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy and Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk border regions. Air Force of Ukraine issuing a ballistic missile threat from the northeast confirms high alert status and readiness to respond to immediate threats. UAF Air Force and Оперативний ЗСУ report 60 of 84 RF UAVs shot down/suppressed overnight. This confirms active and effective UAF air defense capabilities. The ballistic missile threat from the northeast has been officially "Отбій," indicating a successful engagement or stand-down of the immediate high-speed threat. UAF Air Force reports engaging assets against hostile reconnaissance UAVs in Odesa region and Vyshhorod district, Kyiv Oblast. РБК-Україна reports drones detected in Kyiv Oblast, with UAF PVO active, confirming ongoing air defense response. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Ukraine may face a deficit of air defense systems, highlighting a critical future constraint. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video showing UAF successfully shooting down an Iskander-K cruise missile with a ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft gun, reinforcing UAF's tactical air defense capability against high-value threats. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts video claiming GUR special forces successfully struck and destroyed two expensive RF air defense radar systems ('Podlet' and 'Nebo') in Crimea. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports "all clear" for the air alert, indicating successful resolution of a threat. Odesa schools have received warnings due to a Shahed threat (РБК-Україна), indicating UAF awareness and preparedness for drone attacks in the south. UAF Air Force reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Vyshhorod district, Kyiv Oblast. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for enemy strike UAVs in Chernihiv. NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Germany will provide Ukraine with new air defense systems for protection against drones, indicating continued international support.
  • UAVs: New groups of UAVs reported on the border of Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, kursing west. STERNENKO reports the acquisition of +450 FPV drones, including 40 Shahed interceptors, in the last two days. UAF 40th Coastal Defense Brigade is employing Barracuda unmanned surface vessels (USVs) in Kherson Oblast. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno claims 2 RF Command Posts (CPs) were hit in Donetsk. "Оперативний ЗСУ" claims UAF launched a combined drone and cruise missile attack on Russian military objects in occupied Donetsk last night, indicating offensive UAV/missile capabilities. Operativny ZSU also reports satellite imagery confirming UAF's "Madyar" unit struck at least two fuel tanks at NPS "Vtorovo" in Vladimir Oblast. ASTRA reports UAF unmanned systems units struck NPS "Vtorovo" in Vladimir Oblast again, confirming sustained UAF deep strike efforts on RF logistics. STERNENKO posts video showing UAF drones engaging 4 Russian kamikaze drones in Donetsk Oblast, indicating successful counter-drone operations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming "good drones" destroyed an RF field ammunition depot overnight. "Підрозділ Shadow" posts drone video showing debris/reconnaissance. РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report UAF drone strikes on Penza, RF, damaging gas pipelines, confirming continued deep strike capability. Сили оборони Півдня України provides video of UAF drone attacks on RF positions, vehicle, and infantry in Kamian'ske village, Zaporizhzhia, confirming active UAF drone operations. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts video of a "Vampire" drone evacuating a wounded soldier, demonstrating UAF innovation in drone applications. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video showing a Ukrainian military unit using a drone for detection and engagement of two Russian soldiers in a bush area near Chasiv Yar. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts drone footage showing identification of RF tanks, BMPs, generators, and a communication tower in the "buffer zone" near Vovchansk (Rubtsovsk direction, likely Chasiv Yar area), followed by a strike on an RF asset (BMP-3). КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posts photos related to a strike in Yenakievo. Colonelcassad reports an "unknown drone" attacked one of the "Freedom Flotilla" vessels (with Greta Thunberg) in Tunisia, heading to Palestine. This is an unusual report of UAF (or UAF-aligned) drone activity outside of the conflict zone, or a false flag. UAF GUR sources confirm another major deep strike, with a pipeline in Saratov Oblast, Russia, being detonated.
  • Ground Forces: UAF maintains a robust defensive posture across multiple axes, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis, actively repelling RF assaults and conducting localized counter-attacks (e.g., deoccupation of Zarichne). The 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skela" successfully deoccupied Zarichne, Donetsk Oblast. UAF Special Operations Forces (SSO) are actively engaged in qualification courses. STERNENKO (UAF) reports drone pilots from the Phoenix Aviation Systems (Phoenix Gv BAS) halted another Russian mechanized assault on the Pokrovsk axis. UAF General Staff provides updated operational information as of 081900Z SEP 25. General Staff of UAF publishes operational information as of 090500Z SEP 25. РБК-Україна (citing ISW) reports UAF advances on the Sumy direction. 46th Separate Airmobile Podilsky Brigade DShV AFU (UAF source) posts photo message titled "INTENSIVE OF THE UNBOWED," likely referring to ongoing training or combat readiness, indicating sustained UAF ground force activity. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС corroborates the 425th Regiment "Skela" clearing Zarichne and installing the Ukrainian flag, reinforcing UAF tactical success. Оперативний ЗСУ provides the General Staff briefing for 08:00 (090500Z SEP), which outlines continued RF offensive actions on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka, Shakhtarsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson axes, with UAF repelling numerous assaults. This indicates sustained UAF defensive posture and active engagement across multiple fronts. Specifically on the Pokrovsk direction, UAF repelled 10 RF attacks near Prohres, Vozdvyzhenka, and Yevhenivka, indicating continued intense combat. The Coordination Staff for Treatment of POWs meets with families of the 23rd Separate Reconnaissance Battalion, indicating ongoing support for forces. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС videos depict grim frontline conditions for soldiers in trenches, highlighting resilience despite hardships. Сили оборони Півдня України provides video of UAF drone attacks on RF positions, vehicle, and infantry in Kamian'ske village, Zaporizhzhia, confirming RF presence and UAF counter-actions in the area. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on a case against Kharkiv SIZO employees, an internal legal matter regarding personnel conduct. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС posts a video of a UAF soldier discussing challenges including lack of information and unreturned reconnaissance groups, and a desire to go home, suggesting high stress levels and the intensity of combat. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts an information message on the situation in its areas of responsibility for the morning of 09.09.2025, confirming ongoing operations. Liveuamap Source reports UAF repelled 11 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, confirming active defensive operations in the northern sector. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС posts a video depicting the capture and transport of Russian soldiers from the Dobropillia direction, showing them as prisoners of war. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the SBU has detained FSB agents who guided strike drones to Odesa and Kirovohrad regions, indicating successful UAF counter-intelligence operations targeting enemy ground assets. The Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office reports over 20 dead and dozens wounded from a "cynical war crime" by Russia against peaceful Ukrainian population, with photo evidence of severe destruction, reinforcing the report of the aviation bomb strike in Yarova. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a public health announcement from the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration regarding pertussis (whooping cough), highlighting ongoing public health efforts and civilian resilience. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports that prosecutors have established the involvement of a Transcarpathian Regional Council deputy in the illegal sale of valuable oak wood, indicating ongoing internal legal action against corruption. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a photo message of UAF contract soldiers receiving their first state awards for service under the 18-24 program, indicating continued recruitment and recognition efforts.
  • Logistics/Infrastructure: Automotive traffic on the Kremenchuk bridge has been restored. РБК-Україна reports the government has expanded the grounds for exemption from mobilization ("бронь"), which may improve the stability of critical sectors by reducing personnel outflow, indirectly impacting logistics and support functions. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports Cabinet of Ministers changed mobilization exemption rules, confirming this ongoing measure to manage resources. The Coordination Staff for Treatment of POWs held a meeting in Kharkiv with families of missing and captured servicemen, indicating ongoing efforts to support military families. Филолог в засаде (RF source) shows UAF soldiers in the Kherson direction receiving Starlink terminals, confirming continued UAF efforts to secure communication. STERNENKO (UAF) posts video of "Wings to Hell" drones on fiber optics hitting RF targets in Sumy direction, confirming UAF use of advanced drone technology for precision strikes. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video showing Ukrainian police officers detaining an individual in a regional center, with bystanders questioning the actions, indicating ongoing mobilization enforcement and potential public friction. The Coordination Staff for Treatment of POWs held a meeting with representatives of "Serdtsa Odesy v Poloni" (Heart of Odesa in Captivity), a public organization supporting captured and missing personnel.
  • Control Measures: UAF Air Force reports hostile UAV activity on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, kursing southwest. Air alerts are active in multiple regions (Kyiv, Cherkasy, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson). This indicates active UAF air defense readiness and response across these areas. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Poland will close its border with Belarus on September 11 due to military exercises on Belarusian territory, indicating a UAF-aligned assessment of regional security measures. NEW: РБК-Україна corroborates Poland's decision to close its border with Belarus.
  • Strategic Air Defense Acquisition: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ report Ukraine will acquire new German "Skyranger" anti-drone systems from Rheinmetall this year, which are described as "cooler than 'Gepard'". This is a significant announcement for future UAF air defense capabilities. DeepState also reports on Rheinmetall supplying anti-drone systems.
  • Commemoration: Multiple UAF and state channels (Zaporizhzhia OVA, KMVA, Office of the Prosecutor General, Оперативний ЗСУ) are posting "Minute of Silence" and commemoration graphics, indicating a coordinated national observance. Zaporizhzhia OVA posts about opening a memorial plaque for a fallen defender, Vitaliy Chuyko, in Zaporizhzhia.
  • Civic Resilience: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts about a Zaporizhzhia paddler winning two bronze medals at the Canoe Marathon World Championship, a civilian event indicating continued resilience and some normalcy. РБК-Україна reports on a Supreme Court case regarding "Kovalska" cement company, indicating ongoing civilian economic activity and legal processes. STERNENKO (UAF) posts about fundraising for "Rusorez" (likely anti-Russian equipment). The Coordination Staff for Treatment of POWs announces a training course for military personnel and their children (including POWs, fallen heroes, and missing defenders) focusing on "Unix and Networks." NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video focusing on the evacuation of residents from frontline communities in Zaporizhzhia, highlighting ongoing civilian support efforts.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (Confidence: HIGH)

• Capabilities:

  • Sustained Ground Offensive with Massed Forces: RF demonstrates the capability for sustained, multi-axis ground offensives, with a primary effort on the Pokrovsk axis. TASS reports RF forces have broken through UAF defenses near Chynyshyn, southeast of Pokrovsk, indicating a demonstrated capability for localized breakthroughs. They can concentrate experienced units and conduct localized advances, supported by integrated drone reconnaissance and precision strikes. "Сливочный каприз" video showing Naval Infantry activity reinforces ground combat capabilities, possibly expanding to the Sumy region. RF MOD "Vostok" group's claimed destruction of a UAF UAV control point and infantry in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with drone video, highlights their continued capability for targeted ground operations and suppression of UAF drone assets. TASS's claim of UAF withdrawal from Hlushchenkove (Kharkiv Oblast) to a second line indicates RF's continued capability for localized offensive operations and forcing UAF tactical repositioning. TASS's claim of destroying a UAF robotic complex near Kleban-Byk further highlights RF counter-robotic capabilities. TASS reports RF forces have taken control of approximately 3 km of the administrative border in the Kremensky forests, LPR, demonstrating capability for localized territorial gains. Rybar's video confirms RF's capability for advances and sustained combat in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including the capture of Novoselivka, and emphasizes the strategic importance of locations for road control, indicating ongoing, dynamic ground operations with localized RF gains. Colonelcassad's video showcasing the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade "Vostok" demonstrates continued high-skill drone operations by RF special forces. The UAF Air Force reports hostile reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy Oblast and on the Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk border, confirming RF's persistent aerial reconnaissance capability. "Воин DV" video explicitly shows RF UAV operators from the 29th Guards Army actively destroying UAF manpower and equipment on the Vremevka direction, demonstrating persistent offensive capabilities in that sector. TASS reports RF has "practically destroyed" Latin American mercenaries in Dnipropetrovsk and carried out airstrikes on surviving groups, implying capabilities for rapid identification and targeted elimination of foreign fighters. TASS video, citing RF MoD, shows "Southern" group fighters destroying a UAF UAV control point and mortars, demonstrating continued capability for precise targeting of UAF assets. TASS, citing Kimakovsky, reports RF UAV operators establishing fire control over UAF logistical routes near Krasny Liman, indicating capability for drone-based interdiction. Poddubny (RF source) video claims destruction of a UAF tank near Kovsharivka (Kupyansk direction) by 1st Guards Tank Army scouts using a small drone, reinforcing RF's tactical air-ground integration capabilities. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) and "Два майора" (RF source) claims and fundraising efforts for Sumy direction "assault troops" indicate a persistent capability and intent to engage ground forces in Sumy Oblast. "Два майора" video showing injured RF soldiers being evacuated from a rural area, suggesting ongoing ground engagements and casualties. TASS claim that UAF abandoned wounded comrades after an airstrike in Dnipropetrovsk highlights RF's capability for airstrikes on UAF positions (while the abandonment claim is propaganda). Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts video of RF MLRS operating on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, indicating continued heavy fire support for ground offensives. Воин DV posts video showing RF 69th Brigade capturing a UAF soldier, indicating localized tactical successes and ongoing ground engagements. Народная милиция ДНР posts video showing RF special purpose units using FPV drones to strike UAF positions, equipment, and drones, confirming active drone-supported ground assaults. Народная милиция ДНР also posts video showing "Sparta" battalion liquidating a UAF UAV control point, demonstrating a specific counter-UAV capability in ground operations. Воин DV provides a situation update for the Southern-Donetsk direction, indicating continued RF capability to manage and operate on this axis. Basurin о главном reports RF forces are confidently advancing on the Siverske direction, supported by drone footage of tactical strikes. Colonelcassad video shows "Anvar" special forces unit destroying Ukrainian militants and equipment in the border areas of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. TASS reports RF forces destroyed a pickup truck with British radios for UAF in Konstantinovka, implying active RF targeting of UAF logistics. "Военкор Котенок" posts video claiming a "precise hit" on a UAF temporary deployment point in Kirovsk, with the caption identifying the 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade of UAF, suggesting a successful RF strike on a UAF forward position. Воин DV reports the 36th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade used drones to destroy an enemy tank, indicating RF ground units are actively integrating drones for anti-armor operations. Colonelcassad claims "Yunakivka is ours!" (Sumy Oblast), reinforcing previous unverified claims. Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны posts a video from a pro-Russian source, appearing to show Russian soldiers in a wooded area, some possibly injured or deceased. The video quality is low. This suggests ongoing combat or its immediate aftermath. Colonelcassad posts video of the aftermath of an attack in Yarova, including damaged vehicles and casualties, blaming UAF. This demonstrates RF's ability to quickly assign blame and conduct immediate counter-IO. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts night vision video showing the engagement and apparent destruction of a vehicle by what appears to be missile/explosive ordnance by "Northern" Group of Forces, confirming continued RF offensive actions and nighttime strike capabilities. NEW: "Сливочный каприз" (RF) photo messages suggest continued tactical activity and engagements in the Pokrovsk direction. NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF) drone footage of strikes on alleged UAF UAV control points in residential areas demonstrates RF's capability to identify and target UAF C2 infrastructure within civilian environments, a potential hybrid warfare tactic. NEW: Kadyrov_95 (RF) drone footage from the Kharkiv direction confirms continued RF reconnaissance and tactical strike capabilities against UAF positions in wooded areas, indicating active shaping operations. NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF) video depicting emaciated individuals, possibly POWs, suggests RF capabilities for maintaining detention facilities, but also raises questions about conditions and treatment.
  • Overwhelming Long-Range Strike & Air Presence: RF maintains overwhelming long-range strike capability (Iskander-K, Shaheds, KABs), capable of massed and precision strikes against critical energy, industrial, and national C2 infrastructure. The deployment of Su-35S multirole fighters and Tu-95MS strategic bombers underscores their air power. Recent drone strikes on Zaporizhzhia reaffirm this. Confirmed KAB launches on Donetsk Oblast demonstrate continued tactical air-ground integration capability. The detailed information about foreign components in the Iskander-K missile (30+ foreign parts) highlights RF's sustained capability to acquire and integrate advanced Western components for high-precision weapons, despite sanctions. New KAB launches on Sumy Oblast confirm this continued capability for tactical air strikes. RF MOD's claim of shooting down 31 Ukrainian UAVs overnight confirms their ongoing, active air defense capabilities against deep UAF strikes. ASTRA's report of 5 additional KABs dropped on RF and occupied territories indicates sustained air-to-ground strike capability. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports an Iskander-M strike on an industrial facility in Druzhkivka, confirming continued high-precision strike capabilities. The Air Force of Ukraine's ballistic missile threat from the northeast indicates RF's persistent and immediate strategic strike capability. UAF Air Force reports "high-speed targets" (likely missiles) continuing on the same course towards Khotiyn/Mykolayivka in Sumy Oblast, indicating an ongoing, immediate aerial strike capability. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF forces destroyed "Lyut" Brigade warehouses in Kramatorsk, suggesting continued capability for precision strikes on UAF military infrastructure. UAF Air Force reports Shahed launches from Bryansk, Kursk, Oryol, and Crimea, indicating diverse launch locations and continued air strike capabilities. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches on northern Kharkiv Oblast, confirming persistent tactical air-to-ground strike capabilities. Mash na Donbasse reports damage to two schools and a kindergarten in Donetsk, reinforcing RF's capability to inflict damage on civilian areas, regardless of intent. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Prymorske of Zaporizhzhia region, Mykolayivka of Kherson region. This confirms continued RF tactical air support. ASTRA reports a UAV attack on Mariupol airport, resulting in RF casualties and equipment loss, confirming RF presence and vulnerability to UAF strikes on occupied territory. Colonelcassad's "Chronicle of strikes" confirms sustained RF air/missile strike capability. TASS, citing RF MoD, claims destruction of a UAF S-300 air defense system launcher and control cabin within the last 24 hours. A ballistic missile threat has been issued for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarivskyi and Dnipropetrovskyi districts) indicates immediate RF missile strike capability. Odesa schools receiving Shahed warnings confirms active RF drone deployment in the south. The Prosecutor General's Office report regarding an aviation bomb strike on Yarova confirms RF's capability to employ highly destructive munitions on civilian areas. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts night vision video showing the engagement and apparent destruction of a vehicle by what appears to be missile/explosive ordnance by "Northern" Group of Forces, confirming continued RF tactical air support. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, citing RF MOD, claims RF PVO forces shot down 5 cruise missiles, 5 HIMARS rockets, and 230 UAF UAVs in the last 24 hours, indicating a robust (though likely exaggerated) air defense capability. NEW: Mash na Donbasse reports power outages in several districts of Donetsk, Makeevka, and Ilovaisk, confirming RF's continued capability to disrupt energy infrastructure in occupied territories, potentially due to UAF strikes.
  • Adaptive Drone Operations: RF is increasingly employing FPV drones for specialized tactical roles beyond simple reconnaissance or direct strike, including using "Orlan-10" as FPV carriers, targeting communications in Kharkiv Oblast, and combined FPV/TM mine operations on the Vremevka direction. The recent destruction of a T-72 variant tank by drone in Kharkiv Oblast further emphasizes this adaptation. Colonelcassad's video compilation (Sumy direction), despite its ambiguous narrative, highlights the pervasive use of FPV drones in various operational contexts. The reported development of a foldable drone "Matryoshka" suggests tactical adaptation towards more durable and versatile drone platforms. Colonelcassad's new video compilation of FPV drone strikes on UAF infantry reinforces the proficiency and widespread tactical deployment of these assets. RF MOD "Vostok" group's claimed destruction of a UAF UAV control point highlights a tactical adaptation to target UAF drone infrastructure directly. TASS video showing "Baba Yaga" drones for reconnaissance indicates continued adaptation in air ISR assets. Colonelcassad's video showcasing the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade "Vostok" demonstrates continued tactical adaptation and proficiency in combat drone operations. "Воин DV" video explicitly shows RF UAV operators from the 29th Guards Army destroying UAF manpower and equipment, demonstrating continued tactical drone effectiveness in offensive operations. Poddubny's claim of RF drones dominating the Izium-Barvinkove route suggests adaptation to drone-based interdiction of UAF logistics. TASS, citing Kimakovsky, reports RF UAV operators establishing fire control over UAF logistical routes near Krasny Liman, indicating an adaptive use of drones for area denial and interdiction. UAF Air Force reports hostile reconnaissance UAVs in northeastern Sumy, Kharkiv, southeastern Dnipropetropets, and Odesa oblasts, confirming persistent and adaptive RF aerial reconnaissance/targeting capabilities. UAF Air Force reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Chernihivskyi district, Chernihiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Konotop district, Sumy Oblast, indicating active RF drone deployment. Poddubny (RF source) video claims destruction of a UAF tank near Kovsharivka (Kupyansk direction) by 1st Guards Tank Army scouts using a small drone, further reinforcing adapted drone tactics for precision strikes. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Shahed launches from 4 locations, indicating adaptive multi-axis drone strike capabilities. Народная милиция ДНР posts video showing RF special purpose units using FPV drones to strike UAF positions, equipment, and drones (including "Baba Yaga"), demonstrating adaptive use for both strike and counter-drone operations. Народная милиция ДНР also posts video showing "Sparta" battalion liquidating a UAF UAV control point, demonstrating adaptive counter-UAV capabilities. Старше Эдды posts thermal imaging drone footage showcasing "robots hitting robots," emphasizing the advanced and adaptive nature of RF drone warfare. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video showing a Ukrainian military unit using a drone for detection and engagement of two Russian soldiers in a bush area near Chasiv Yar, implying RF adaptation in concealment. TASS reports RF forces destroyed a pickup truck carrying British radios for UAF in Konstantinovka, implying drone-assisted targeting. Воин DV reports the 36th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade used drones to destroy an enemy tank, further demonstrating adaptive drone usage for anti-armor operations. Odesa schools receiving Shahed warnings confirms active RF drone deployment in the south. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a video captioned "Night hunt of the Steel 144th Motor Rifle Division's drone operators. It's interesting to observe how robots hit robots, a prototype of future warfare..." This explicitly highlights RF's adaptive focus on advanced drone warfare, including counter-drone tactics. NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF) drone footage of strikes on alleged UAF UAV control points in residential areas highlights RF's adaptive use of drones for precision targeting of UAF C2 within hybrid operational environments. NEW: Kadyrov_95 (RF) drone footage from the Kharkiv direction shows continued adaptive use of drones for reconnaissance and strike missions against UAF fortified positions.
  • Information Operations (IO): RF IO is highly active, multi-layered, and adaptive, aiming to reinforce internal cohesion, project strength, discredit Ukraine and its Western partners, and sow discord. The coordinated dissemination of claims by Benjamin Reed regarding war crimes by "Chosen Company" (executions, chemical weapons) demonstrates a sophisticated and aggressive IO capability to directly target foreign military support for Ukraine. Colonelcassad's use of "БУДЬТЕ ВНИМАТЕЛЬНЫ и ОСТОРОЖНЫ!" (BE CAREFUL and CAUTIOUS!) messages with images of alleged ordnance and mine warning signs is a clear IO tactic to sow fear and imply danger to civilians, while implicitly blaming UAF. TASS's immediate reporting of civilian casualties from alleged UAF strikes and attributing them to UAF actions (Miroshnik) is a consistent IO capability to shape narratives. TASS, citing Miroshnik, also provides figures for daily UAF munitions impacting RF territory, further shaping narratives. Kotsnews' video of damage in Makeevka and associated civilian casualty claims is part of this IO. Moscow News' report on antidepressant demand could be leveraged as a subtle IO element, contrasting with an with an image of resilience. TASS, citing Golikova, states the 80th anniversary of Victory will be central to the St. Petersburg Forum of United Cultures, indicating RF's capability to leverage historical narratives for current political/IO goals. TASS, citing Nikoronova, claims Finnish politicians will answer to the people for strained relations with Russia, demonstrating RF's capability to project blame and influence internal affairs of neighboring states through IO. ТАСС, citing Kimakovsky, reporting on Latin American mercenaries deployed to Pokrovsk and their alleged destruction, immediately preceding the claim of UAF redeployment, highlights RF's capability for rapid identification, targeting, and subsequent propaganda dissemination concerning foreign fighters. WarGonzo's report of two fatalities in the DPR from "massive shelling" is an immediate IO effort to frame UAF as targeting civilians. Rybar's cartographic overview (video) showing Russian advances immediately links European support for Ukraine to alleged UAF strikes on Donetsk and Makeevka civilian populations, framing Western aid as directly causing harm to civilians. Colonelcassad refers to Russia being "undoubtedly aware of these plans," likely referring to Western plans concerning Ukraine, and cites Putin and the Foreign Intelligence Service, indicating RF's capability to frame perceived Western intentions as hostile and known. TASS, citing Volodin, claims "France is tired of Macron's eight-year disgrace, whose problem is himself," a direct RF IO attack on Western leadership, aiming to sow discord within the EU and NATO. Colonelcassad's POW video aims to delegitimize UAF treatment of prisoners and bolster RF domestic support. Mash na Donbasse's video of Makeevka damage and casualties will be heavily leveraged to depict UAF targeting civilians. Рыбарь's "Infection Garden of Europe" graphic is clear anti-Western propaganda. TASS claims UAF abandoned wounded comrades after an airstrike in Dnipropetrovsk (RF claim) to generate negative sentiment against UAF. "Два майора" posts photos of Sochi mayor inspecting damage, including a damaged cemetery, following a drone attack, suggesting a localized RF damage assessment following a UAF drone attack. Mash на Донбассе reports damage to two schools and a kindergarten in Donetsk from yesterday's shelling, which will be heavily used in RF IO to portray UAF as targeting civilian infrastructure, especially given the timing around Donetsk liberation day (WarGonzo). TASS, citing The New York Times, reports difficulties finding a new PM could lead to Macron's resignation, an RF IO effort to destabilize Western leadership, also noted by РБК-Україна. "Два майора" posts image claiming Ukraine's arms production is increasingly moved abroad, an RF IO effort to highlight perceived UAF weakness. Басурин о главном and TASS post on "I am Russian" phrase and trademark, a nationalistic IO effort. WarGonzo posts photo message claiming attack on Donetsk on its liberation day shows "true bloody face" of Kyiv regime, an RF IO effort timed for maximum emotional impact. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны post photo messages of alleged nighttime strikes on Zaporizhzhia, showing fires in a building. While the content is limited, it indicates ongoing RF targeting of urban areas. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны post photo messages claiming more Ukrainians are seeking asylum in the EU, an RF IO effort to highlight displacement. TASS reports protesters set fire to Nepal PM's residence, an RF IO effort to highlight global instability, distracting from Ukraine, also noted by РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ and Alex Parker Returns. TASS, citing Lavrov, claims Russia notes a weakening of immunity to the "Nazi virus" in Western countries, a persistent and aggressive anti-Western IO narrative. TASS, citing US Vice-President J.D. Vance, comparing Trump-Epstein publications to Russiagate, is an RF IO effort to sow discord in US politics. The preparation of a new Information Security Doctrine (TASS) shows an intent to formalize and strengthen RF's IO capabilities. TASS reports Pierre de Gaulle, grandson of Charles de Gaulle, wishes to acquire Russian citizenship, hoping for Putin's decision. This is a clear RF IO effort to attract high-profile Western figures and demonstrate international appeal, aiming to undermine Western unity, also noted by Alex Parker Returns. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts promotional material for a new Russian Orthodox war film, indicating state-supported morale boosting efforts. Рыбарь posts on "Lost Americans on the Armenian border," an RF IO effort to undermine US influence and promote narratives of regional instability. "Два майора" posts a photo message claiming the French National Assembly dismissed Prime Minister François Bayrou on September 8. This is a clear RF IO effort to highlight perceived political instability in Western nations. TASS, citing Maria Zakharova, criticizes Germany's Annalena Baerbock's presidency of the UN General Assembly as a "disgrace." This is an RF IO effort to undermine Western diplomatic standing. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны amplify a video where Arestovych (Ukrainian former official) expresses disbelief that an Iskander hit the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers. This is an RF IO effort to sow doubt within Ukraine. «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» posts a video of a child speaking patriotic phrases in support of "Akhmat" and Russian soldiers, indicating state-supported morale boosting efforts targeted at a young audience. ТАСС, citing Kartapolov, warns that "irresponsible policies of Helsinki" could lead to conflict with RF, continuing anti-Finland rhetoric. НгП раZVедка claims Ukraine is trying to pass off its crime in Yarova as a FAB strike, a direct counter to UAF claims of an RF aviation bomb strike. Старше Эдды comments on protests in Nepal, attributing them to social media blocks and criticizing the government's approach, indicating RF's ongoing efforts to frame events in other countries through an anti-Western or anti-government lens, while cautioning against similar measures within Russia. Alex Parker Returns provides multiple photo messages, including a funeral receipt, medical documents, and IDs. This collection appears to be a disinformation effort aimed at fabricating casualties or highlighting alleged negative impacts on civilians, likely for IO purposes to discredit UAF actions or Western support. Басурин о главном posts a video of a casual conversation, but the preceding text indicates a new program, suggesting continued RF media output for public consumption, potentially for morale or IO purposes. Старше Эдды posts an economic-nationalist narrative about Russia's economic gains from the SVO and NATO's losses, a clear IO effort to bolster domestic support and de-legitimize Western aid. TASS reports Lavrov strongly condemns Western attempts to remove Milorad Dodik from power in Republika Srpska. This highlights RF's continued support for pro-Russian figures and its use of political rhetoric to oppose Western influence. Colonelcassad posts video of the aftermath of an attack in Yarova, including damaged vehicles and casualties, blaming UAF for a "provocation" against civilians receiving pensions, similar to the Kramatorsk attack. This reinforces RF's immediate denial and counter-IO. Operativny ZSU posts video of Andrey Kartapolov, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Defense, claiming Finland is becoming a "hotbed of fascism" more than Ukraine, and warning of "tragic consequences" due to Finnish leadership's policies. This is an aggressive and escalating IO tactic aimed at Finland and NATO. ASTRA reports a Russian artist, Alexey Kiryanov, has been put on a wanted list after being sentenced to 12 days for inciting hatred against "Putin's voters." This indicates internal suppression of dissent and an IO effort to label critics as extremist. "Два майора" posts photo message raising concerns about "Azerbaijani diaspora" influence in Udmurtia regional elections. This indicates RF's internal political messaging efforts to address perceived ethnic/migrant issues, potentially for domestic nationalistic appeal. WarGonzo posts photo messages claiming "Generation Z overthrows government in Nepal," aiming to highlight global instability and imply a model for change, potentially for domestic or international consumption. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a photo of Putin integrated into a "MAX" interface, indicating RF's efforts to expand its digital presence and influence. Оперативний ЗСУ reports, citing Reuters, that the RF government views demobilization as a greater risk than the return of "Afghans" in '89, indicating concerns about the social impact of returning veterans. Операция Z (citing Russian Spring War Correspondents) reports 150,000 people subscribed to Putin's channel on Max in the first 24 hours, a clear IO effort to project popular support for Putin. ТАСС, citing Maria Zakharova, reports an ethnographer was released by Afghan authorities due to friendly relations with Moscow. This is an IO effort to project Russia's diplomatic influence and global reach, especially with non-Western aligned states. NEW: TASS posts videos of protestors capturing and burning the Nepalese parliament building, and later burning the house of former Prime Minister Nath Khanal, with his wife seriously injured. This will be immediately leveraged by RF IO to highlight global instability and social unrest, diverting attention from the conflict in Ukraine. NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts a video of "some kind Russian people" making an offer to Roman Alekhin, and later posts photo messages defending Alekhin. This suggests an internal RF IO campaign to discredit or rehabilitate a pro-war blogger, highlighting internal conflicts within the RF information space related to integrity and finance. NEW: "Два майора" posts a message criticizing Roman Alekhin for his video, stating he "compromised the entire volunteer movement." This confirms an internal split within the pro-war milblogger community regarding financial transparency and conduct. NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a photo message recruitment advertisement for the Russian military, displaying the Russian flag and emphasizing "Defend your country! We are looking for the brave!" This is a direct military IO effort to attract personnel. NEW: Старше Эдды (RF) posts a video with #КультураДНР, showing a live music performance. This is an IO effort to project normalcy, cultural life, and integration in occupied territories, aiming to boost local morale and normalize occupation.
  • New Maritime Drone (USV): The development of an "Ушкуйник" fiber-optic USV indicates RF's growing capability in maritime drone warfare, potentially for reconnaissance, sabotage, or attack, offering a stealthier and more resilient alternative to traditional USVs. ASTRA reports on the development of this fiber-optic maritime drone, confirming its existence.
  • Anti-Drone Defense Systems (Development): Colonelcassad posts images of "Darwin" Russian anti-drone net kits developed by "Mechanical Protection Systems" company, indicating RF's active development of layered defenses against UAF drones. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Legal/Internal Enforcement: TASS reports conviction of human rights activist Grigory Sverdlin for "fakes" about RF Armed Forces and Oleg Sorokin for corruption, indicating continued use of legal mechanisms for internal control and to suppress dissent, as well as combat corruption. TASS reports a human rights activist sentenced to 6 years for a post about Bucha, highlighting continued suppression of dissent. TASS also reports on financial penalties for an individual convicted of an explosion in Stupino. Colonelcassad reports a large narcotics bust in Moscow Oblast, indicating internal security operations. Moscow News and TASS report the seizure of 300 kg of cocaine (valued at 250 million rubles) in Moscow Oblast, hidden in a shipment of apples from Moldova. This is an internal RF security matter. "Два майора" posts video showing Russian military personnel detaining an individual in military camouflage, labelled "terrorist accomplice" from Astrakhan. This confirms ongoing internal security operations within RF. ASTRA reports a Russian artist, Alexey Kiryanov, has been put on a wanted list after being sentenced to 12 days for inciting hatred against "Putin's voters." This indicates internal suppression of dissent and an IO effort to label critics as extremist. NEW: ASTRA posts a video alleging Z-blogger Roman Alekhin is suspected of money laundering, further indicating internal legal issues and potential corruption within elements supporting the RF war effort.
  • Military Recruitment: (Confidence: HIGH) Военкор Котенок posts a recruitment video for Russian special forces, highlighting incentives and training. This indicates sustained RF efforts to attract high-quality military personnel. NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a photo message recruitment advertisement, explicitly calling for "brave" individuals to "Defend your country!" NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF) posts a "COLLECTION FOR A PARATROOPER🫡" message, indicating ongoing, unit-level fundraising for RF military personnel, suggesting persistent resource needs not fully met by official channels. NEW: Colonelcassad posts a video of a "COLLECTION FOR THE 4th AUTO-COLUMN," showing military-style vehicles. This is a direct appeal for donations to support logistical needs for specific units, further corroborating reliance on volunteer efforts.
  • Agricultural Production: TASS reports Russia's 2025 grain harvest is almost 105 million tons, exceeding last year's, indicating sustained agricultural production, which is a foundational element of state sustainment.
  • Internal Political Messaging: "Два майора" posts photo message raising concerns about "Azerbaijani diaspora" influence in Udmurtia regional elections. This indicates RF's internal political messaging efforts to address perceived ethnic/migrant issues, potentially for domestic nationalistic appeal.
  • Border Security: NEW: TASS reports Poland will close its border with Belarus due to "Zapad-2025" exercises. This demonstrates RF's (and Belarus') capability to conduct large-scale military exercises that influence border security in neighboring NATO states.
  • Tourism: NEW: TASS reports the most expensive tour this summer was sold for 34 million rubles to Turkey, indicating continued economic activity and consumer spending among some segments of the Russian population.

• Intentions:

  • Decisive Breakthrough on Pokrovsk: Primary intent is to achieve a decisive breakthrough on the Pokrovsk axis, leading to significant territorial gains and operational advantage. РБК-Україна (citing ISW) reinforces this, noting RF preparations for an assault. TASS reporting a breakthrough near Chynyshyn explicitly supports this intent. TASS's reporting of Latin American mercenaries deployed to Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) indicates RF's intent to identify and target key UAF defensive assets in this area to facilitate their breakthrough. NEW: "Сливочный каприз" (RF) photo messages regarding Krasnoarmeysk - Muravka reinforce this intent to continue tactical advances in the Pokrovsk direction. NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition's (RF) drone footage of strikes on alleged UAF UAV control points in residential areas underscores RF's intent to degrade UAF C2 and defense capabilities directly in contested zones.
  • Degrade Ukrainian War-fighting Capacity: Continued targeting of energy, industrial, and C2 infrastructure aims to degrade Ukraine's ability to sustain operations, particularly ahead of winter. Recent drone strikes on Zaporizhzhia reaffirm this. Threat of aviation strike means continued degradation of UAF defensive capabilities in specific areas. The Iskander-M strike on an industrial facility in Druzhkivka further confirms this intent. The claimed strike on "Lyut" Brigade warehouses in Kramatorsk further reinforces intent to degrade UAF military infrastructure. Mash na Donbasse reports damage to two schools and a kindergarten in Donetsk, indicating an intent to inflict damage on civilian areas, which has an impact on war-fighting capacity by diverting resources and impacting morale. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Prymorske of Zaporizhzhia region, Mykolayivka of Kherson region. This confirms continued RF tactical air support. The Mariupol airport attack indicates intent to degrade occupied UAF infrastructure. TASS claim of destroying a UAF S-300 system shows intent to degrade UAF air defense capabilities. RF's alleged aviation bomb strike on Yarova, if confirmed as deliberate, signifies an intent to inflict mass civilian casualties and terrorize the population. НгП раZVедка claims Ukraine is trying to pass off its crime in Yarova as a FAB strike, indicating intent to deny culpability and shift blame. TASS reports RF forces destroyed a pickup truck carrying British radios for UAF in Konstantinovka, indicating an intent to disrupt UAF logistical supplies. RF's destruction of a UAF tank and a temporary deployment point indicates an intent to directly attrit UAF military assets and personnel. The confirmed UAF GUR deep strike on a pipeline in Saratov Oblast, Russia, will likely reinforce RF's intent to respond with further strikes aimed at degrading UAF capabilities. The drone attack on the Belgorod oil depot will likely reinforce RF's intent to respond with further strikes aimed at degrading UAF capabilities. NEW: Mash na Donbasse reports power outages in Donetsk, Makeevka, and Ilovaisk, indicating RF's intent to disrupt civilian infrastructure and exert pressure on occupied territories. NEW: Kadyrov_95 (RF) drone footage from the Kharkiv direction, showing strikes on UAF positions, reinforces the intent to attrit UAF forces and secure territorial gains.
  • Shape Information Environment: To control narratives domestically and internationally, justify RF actions, and undermine Ukrainian and Western resolve. This includes ongoing efforts to frame UAF as targeting civilians and to discredit Ukrainian leadership, with a new focus on alleged war crimes by foreign fighters and attributing infrastructure damage to Storm Shadows. RF intent to exploit perceived US disinformation vulnerabilities and influence European public opinion (as highlighted by РБК-Україна) and expand global IO reach (Rybar's LATINAR). Continued claims by Golikova regarding "cancellation of Russian culture" indicates an intent to push back against international isolation narratives. Peskov's comments on cyber vulnerability might be an attempt to deflect from RF cyber capabilities or vulnerabilities. RF's domestic social/economic proposals (Mironov, dangerous dogs, Khabarovsk drug bust, Krasnoyarsk legal case) indicate an intention to project a focus on internal welfare, stability, and law and order, counteracting narratives of internal chaos. The focus on Putin's birthday by Peskov aims to reinforce the image of a stable, connected leader. RF's domestic policy announcements (18+ goods ID, Forum of United Cultures, national projects in "Donbas and Novorossiya") aim to project an image of stability, integration, and cultural leadership, diverting attention from military setbacks and reinforcing domestic legitimacy. Colonelcassad's mine warnings are intended to affect civilian morale and potentially impede UAF movement. TASS reporting on civilian casualties serves to bolster domestic support and demonize UAF actions. Margarita Simonyan's personal news is part of a broader IO strategy to humanize key figures. The Times' assessment that the Cabinet of Ministers strike marks a "new stage of the war" reflects an RF intention to escalate. TASS, citing Golikova, emphasizes the 80th anniversary of Victory as a central theme for the St. Petersburg Forum, indicating an intent to leverage historical narratives to reinforce national identity and legitimacy for current actions. TASS, citing Nikoronova, claiming Finnish politicians will be accountable for poor relations with Russia, illustrates an intent to project blame and influence narratives in neighboring countries. ТАСС, citing Kartapolov, continues anti-Finland rhetoric, aiming to influence international narratives. ASTRA reports Trump blaming Democrats for the death of Ukrainian refugee Iryna Zarutska in the US, which will be leveraged by RF IO to sow discord and criticism of US aid to Ukraine. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's claim about Zaporizhzhia fires and uninhabited houses demonstrates an intent to pre-emptively counter UAF claims of civilian casualties. Rybar's cartographic overview (video) immediately linking Western support for Ukraine to alleged UAF strikes on Donetsk and Makeevka civilian populations, framing Western aid as directly causing harm to civilians. Filolog v Zasade's video on water supply in Donetsk, highlighting alleged mismanagement, indicates an intent to address internal grievances or project a narrative of state failures, potentially to deflect from RF's own responsibility or to create a localized issue to exploit. TASS, citing Volodin's criticism of Macron, directly targets Western political leadership, intending to fracture Western unity and divert attention from the conflict. Colonelcassad's POW video aims to delegitimize UAF treatment of prisoners and bolster RF domestic support. Mash na Donbasse video on Makeevka aims to further frame UAF as targeting civilians. Рыбарь's "Infection Garden of Europe" graphic is new anti-Western propaganda. TASS claims UAF abandoned wounded comrades (RF claim) to generate negative sentiment against UAF. "Два майора" highlighting Sochi mayor's inspection of drone damage further frames UAF as targeting civilians. Mash на Донбассе reports damage to two schools and a kindergarten in Donetsk, which will be immediately adapted into RF IO to portray UAF as targeting civilian infrastructure, especially given the timing around Donetsk liberation day (WarGonzo). TASS, citing The New York Times, reports difficulties finding a new PM could lead to Macron's resignation, an RF IO effort to destabilize Western leadership and portray Western political weakness. "Два майора" posts image claiming Ukraine's arms production is increasingly moved abroad, an RF IO effort to highlight perceived UAF weakness. Басурин о главном and TASS post on "I am Russian" phrase and trademark, a nationalistic IO effort. WarGonzo posts photo message claiming attack on Donetsk on its liberation day shows "true bloody face" of Kyiv regime, an RF IO effort timed for maximum emotional impact. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны post photo messages of alleged nighttime strikes on Zaporizhzhia, showing fires in a building. While the content is limited, it indicates ongoing RF targeting of urban areas. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны post photo messages claiming more Ukrainians are seeking asylum in the EU, an RF IO effort to highlight displacement. TASS reports protesters set fire to Nepal PM's residence, an RF IO effort to highlight global instability, distracting from Ukraine. TASS, citing Lavrov, claims Russia notes a weakening of immunity to the "Nazi virus" in Western countries, a persistent and aggressive anti-Western IO narrative, also noted in TASS, citing Kartapolov. TASS, citing US Vice-President J.D. Vance, comparing Trump-Epstein to Russiagate, is an RF IO effort to sow discord in US politics. The preparation of a new Information Security Doctrine (TASS) shows an intent to formalize and strengthen RF's IO capabilities. TASS reports Pierre de Gaulle, grandson of Charles de Gaulle, wishes to acquire Russian citizenship, an RF IO effort to attract high-profile Western figures and demonstrate international appeal, aiming to undermine Western unity. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА promotes a new Russian Orthodox war film, showcasing RF's capability for state-supported morale boosting and propaganda through cultural means. Рыбарь posts on "Lost Americans on the Armenian border," an RF IO effort to undermine US influence and promote narratives of regional instability. "Два майора" reports the dismissal of the French Prime Minister, an RF IO effort to highlight Western political instability. TASS, citing Maria Zakharova, criticizes Germany's Annalena Baerbock's presidency of the UN General Assembly as a "disgrace" – a direct IO attack on Western diplomatic standing. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны amplify a video where Arestovych (Ukrainian former official) expresses disbelief that an Iskander hit the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers. This is an RF IO effort to sow doubt within Ukraine. «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» posts a video of a child speaking patriotic phrases in support of "Akhmat" and Russian soldiers, indicating state-supported morale boosting efforts targeted at a young audience. ТАСС, citing Kartapolov, warns that "irresponsible policies of Helsinki" could lead to conflict with RF, continuing anti-Finland rhetoric. НгП раZVедка claims Ukraine is trying to pass off its crime in Yarova as a FAB strike, a direct counter to UAF claims of an RF aviation bomb strike. Старше Эдды comments on protests in Nepal, attributing them to social media blocks and criticizing the government's approach, indicating RF's ongoing efforts to frame events in other countries through an anti-Western or anti-government lens, while cautioning against similar measures within Russia. Alex Parker Returns provides multiple photo messages, including a funeral receipt, medical documents, and IDs. This collection appears to be a disinformation effort aimed at fabricating casualties or highlighting alleged negative impacts on civilians, likely for IO purposes to discredit UAF actions or Western support. Басурин о главном posts a video of a casual conversation, but the preceding text indicates a new program, suggesting continued RF media output for public consumption, potentially for morale or IO purposes. Старше Эдды posts an economic-nationalist narrative about Russia's economic gains from the SVO and NATO's losses, a clear IO effort to bolster domestic support and de-legitimize Western aid. TASS reports Lavrov strongly condemns Western attempts to remove Milorad Dodik from power in Republika Srpska. This highlights RF's continued support for pro-Russian figures and its use of political rhetoric to oppose Western influence. Colonelcassad posts video of the aftermath of an attack in Yarova, including damaged vehicles and casualties, blaming UAF for a "provocation" against civilians receiving pensions, similar to the Kramatorsk attack. This reinforces RF's immediate denial and counter-IO. Operativny ZSU posts video of Andrey Kartapolov, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Defense, claiming Finland is becoming a "hotbed of fascism" more than Ukraine, and warning of "tragic consequences" due to Finnish leadership's policies. This is an aggressive and escalating IO tactic aimed at Finland and NATO. ASTRA reports a Russian artist, Alexey Kiryanov, has been put on a wanted list after being sentenced to 12 days for inciting hatred against "Putin's voters." This indicates internal suppression of dissent and an IO effort to label critics as extremist. "Два майора" posts photo message raising concerns about "Azerbaijani diaspora" influence in Udmurtia regional elections. This indicates RF's internal political messaging efforts to address perceived ethnic/migrant issues, potentially for domestic nationalistic appeal. WarGonzo posts photo messages claiming "Generation Z overthrows government in Nepal," aiming to highlight global instability and imply a model for change, potentially for domestic or international consumption. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a photo of Putin integrated into a "MAX" interface, indicating RF's efforts to expand its digital presence and influence. Оперативний ЗСУ reports, citing Reuters, that the RF government views demobilization as a greater risk than the return of "Afghans" in '89, indicating concerns about the social impact of returning veterans. Операция Z (citing Russian Spring War Correspondents) reports 150,000 people subscribed to Putin's channel on Max in the first 24 hours, a clear IO effort to project popular support for Putin. ТАСС, citing Maria Zakharova, reports an ethnographer was released by Afghan authorities due to friendly relations with Moscow. This is an IO effort to project Russia's diplomatic influence and global reach, especially with non-Western aligned states. TASS reports on a proposal to limit "unjustified complaints" against artists, indicating an IO effort to protect cultural figures and manage internal discontent. NEW: TASS posts videos of protestors capturing and burning the Nepalese parliament building, and burning the house of former Prime Minister Nath Khanal, with his wife seriously injured. This will be immediately leveraged by RF IO to highlight global instability and social unrest, diverting attention from Ukraine and potentially serving as a model for promoting anti-Western narratives. NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts a video of "some kind Russian people" making an offer to Roman Alekhin, and later posts photo messages defending Alekhin. This suggests an internal RF IO campaign to discredit or rehabilitate a pro-war blogger, highlighting internal conflicts within the RF information space related to integrity and finance. This also demonstrates RF's intent to control its internal narrative and address perceived corruption or misbehavior within the pro-war community. NEW: "Два майора" posts a message criticizing Roman Alekhin for his video, stating he "compromised the entire volunteer movement." This confirms an intent to maintain the integrity and public trust of the volunteer movement, as it is a critical component of RF's war sustainment and IO. NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a photo message recruitment advertisement for the Russian military, displaying the Russian flag and emphasizing "Defend your country! We are looking for the brave!" This is a direct IO effort to encourage military service and maintain force levels. NEW: Старше Эдды (RF) posts a video with #КультураДНР, showing a live music performance. This is an IO effort to project normalcy, cultural life, and integration in occupied territories, aiming to boost local morale and normalize occupation. NEW: Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны (RF) posts a video quoting Polish President Nawrocki stating "there is no need for the presence of Polish troops in Ukraine." This is an IO effort to highlight perceived divisions or a lack of commitment within NATO regarding direct military involvement in Ukraine.
  • Test Western Resolve: Medvedev's rhetoric and other IO suggest an intent to test the resolve and unity of NATO and EU. TASS, citing Kartapolov, directly questions Helsinki's "irresponsible policy" and its potential for conflict with Russia, explicitly testing Finnish resolve. NEW: TASS reports Poland will close its border with Belarus due to "Zapad-2025" exercises. This demonstrates an intent to conduct large-scale military exercises that create a deterrent effect and test NATO's vigilance on its eastern flank.
  • Diplomatic Engagement: The proposal from Nemuro, Japan, regarding seismology cooperation indicates an RF intent to engage diplomatically with non-Western aligned countries, even on non-military issues, to break international isolation. China opening its bond market to RF energy companies signifies continued economic and diplomatic alignment with non-Western powers. NEW: TASS reports the most expensive tour this summer was sold for 34 million rubles to Turkey, indicating RF's continued engagement with international tourism, which is a form of soft power and economic diplomacy.
  • Buffer Zones: President Zelenskyy's statement on buffer zones implies RF intent to continue to push UAF lines back to establish these zones.
  • Counter-mobilization efforts: Colonelcassad reports Russian military court sentenced four Ukrainian citizens for involvement in sabotage group targeting military airfield, NPP power lines, and weapons caches in RF, indicating an intent to deter and punish anti-RF activities.

• Courses of Action (COA):

  • MLCOA: Intensified Ground Offensive on Pokrovsk, Sustained Deep Strikes, and Amplified IO: RF will continue and intensify its ground offensive on the Pokrovsk axis, aiming for a decisive breakthrough. Given the reported breakthrough near Chynyshyn, RF will likely exploit this tactical success to further advance. Simultaneously, expect sustained precision missile and mass drone strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure, with a continued focus on energy and MIC targets (e.g., recent strikes on Zaporizhzhia, and the Iskander-M strike on Druzhkivka, Saratov oil pipeline, Belgorod oil depot, and NEW: power outages in Donetsk, Makeevka, and Ilovaisk). RF IO will vigorously promote narratives of UAF war crimes and RF success, particularly concerning alleged attacks on civilian areas in Donetsk and Makeevka (including new Storm Shadow claims and the alleged aviation bomb strike on Yarova with 20+ casualties), the "Zaluzhny/Nord Stream" narrative, and the new claims of war crimes by "Chosen Company" mercenaries (executions, chemical weapons). New emphasis will be placed on amplifying anti-Ukraine aid sentiment in Western nations (Marjorie Taylor Greene video). Renewed or expanded ground activity in the Sumy region is likely, as indicated by Naval Infantry presence. Continued KAB launches on frontline regions, including northern Kharkiv Oblast and Sumy Oblast, are a likely tactical continuation. Increased Shahed activity in Chernihiv Oblast indicates a likely continuation of probing or strike missions in northern regions. RF will intensify efforts to obtain foreign components for its advanced missile programs. RF MOD will continue to highlight successful targeting of UAF drone assets and personnel, including robotic complexes. RF will leverage any tactical successes, such as the claimed withdrawal from Hlushchenkove and the Kremensky forests advance, for propaganda purposes. Colonelcassad's mine warnings are likely part of a broader IO effort to shape civilian behavior in contested areas. RF will immediately leverage the reported civilian casualties from alleged UAF strikes to bolster domestic support and demonize Ukraine. RF will also continue to engage in diplomatic outreach, even on non-military issues, to break international isolation. RF will leverage the 80th anniversary of Victory theme to reinforce nationalistic narratives. RF will likely focus offensive operations on the Vremevka direction, leveraging drone support for suppressing UAF positions. RF will likely increase drone interdiction efforts on UAF logistical routes, particularly towards the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration (e.g., Izium-Barvinkove route). RF will continue to report (and likely exaggerate) civilian casualties from alleged UAF strikes in occupied territories for IO purposes. RF will prioritize targeting UAF tactical C2 and fire support assets, as demonstrated by the destruction of a UAV control point and mortars near Berestok. RF will intensify drone-based fire control and interdiction of UAF logistical routes near Krasny Liman. RF IO will immediately link any alleged UAF strikes on civilians to Western military aid, as seen in Rybar's cartographic overview (video). RF will continue to target Western leadership and unity through direct criticism, as evidenced by Volodin's statements on Macron. RF will launch aggressive IO campaigns alleging UAF POW abuse (Colonelcassad POW video) and highlight alleged civilian damage from UAF actions (Mash na Donbasse Makeevka video). RF will continue to disseminate anti-Western propaganda, portraying Europe negatively (Рыбарь graphic). RF media will continue to project an image of normalcy (TASS reporters at UNGA). RF will continue to exploit allegations of UAF abandoning wounded soldiers (TASS claim). RF will continue to amplify damage from UAF drone strikes on RF civilian infrastructure (Sochi cemetery damage reported by "Два майора"). RF will use sentencing of Ukrainian saboteurs (Colonelcassad) to reinforce state security and portray UAF as terrorists. RF will continue heavy MLRS fire support on the Pokrovsk direction. RF will continue tactical ground operations and attempts to capture UAF personnel, as seen on the Vremevka direction. RF will continue to employ FPV drones for strike and counter-drone operations on the front lines. RF will continue to target UAF UAV control points using ground units, as observed with "Sparta" battalion. RF will continue to use drones for detection and engagement of UAF personnel as observed near Chasiv Yar. RF will intensify efforts to establish "buffer zones" to push UAF artillery out of range. RF will continue to advance on the Siverske direction. RF "Anvar" special forces will continue cross-border operations in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. RF will continue to target UAF logistical convoys (e.g., pickup truck with British radios in Konstantinovka). RF will continue to integrate drones for anti-armor operations. RF will continue to target UAF temporary deployment points (PVDs). Colonelcassad claims "Yunakivka is ours!" (Sumy Oblast), reinforcing previous unverified claims of RF ground presence. RF "Northern" Group of Forces will continue nighttime tactical operations, including vehicle engagements with missile/ordnance. RF IO will continue to leverage global protests and unrest, such as in Nepal (WarGonzo, TASS, Alex Parker Returns), to promote narratives of global instability and Western decline, and to highlight the consequences of government censorship. RF will intensify IO efforts to delegitimize Western influence in the Balkans, as evidenced by Lavrov's statements on Milorad Dodik. RF will immediately escalate counter-IO efforts, as demonstrated by Colonelcassad's rapid blaming of UAF for the Yarova attack. RF will aggressively escalate rhetoric against Finland and NATO, as seen in Kartapolov's statements. RF will continue to use internal security operations (e.g., detention of "terrorist accomplice" in Astrakhan) as domestic IO to project state control and counter terrorism. RF IO will continue to leverage internal political narratives (e.g., Azerbaijani diaspora in Udmurtia) for domestic appeal. Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition will continue to promote advanced drone warfare, including counter-drone tactics. RF will expand its digital presence and influence, as indicated by Putin's channel on Max. RF IO will leverage the reported concern about demobilization to project an image of internal strength and the importance of continued military service. RF IO will continue to emphasize high subscription rates to Putin's channels as a sign of popular support. RF will continue to use internal IO to protect cultural figures and manage discontent. RF IO will continue to project Russia's global diplomatic influence (ethnographer release by Afghanistan). NEW: RF will continue tactical advances in the Pokrovsk direction ("Сливочный каприз"). NEW: RF will intensify efforts to target UAF UAV control points, especially those located in residential areas, as shown by Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition's footage, implying a hybrid approach to degrade UAF drone capabilities. NEW: RF will continue tactical reconnaissance and strikes on UAF fortified positions in the Kharkiv direction, as shown by Kadyrov_95's footage. NEW: RF IO will heavily leverage the Nepalese protests and violence to highlight global instability and social unrest, using it as a distraction and to promote anti-Western narratives. NEW: RF IO will manage internal perceptions of corruption or integrity within the pro-war blogger community, as evidenced by the discussion around Roman Alekhin. NEW: RF will sustain military recruitment efforts through overt propaganda, as shown by АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА's advertisement. NEW: RF will continue efforts to project normalcy and cultural life in occupied territories, as evidenced by Старше Эдды's #КультураДНР video. NEW: RF will continue to support volunteer movements for logistical sustainment, as shown by Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 and Colonelcassad fundraising efforts.
  • MDCOA: Hybrid Attack on NATO Infrastructure: RF could initiate a deniable hybrid attack (cyber, sabotage, drone/missile) against critical infrastructure within a NATO member state, aimed at testing Article 5 and sowing discord. This would be a high-risk, high-reward strategy. The development of a fiber-optic USV ("Ушкуйник") adds a new vector for maritime hybrid operations. The Colonelcassad narrative of a European plan to "occupy" Ukraine could be pre-positioning for such an event, framing a NATO response as an act of aggression. The confirmed development of a fiber-optic maritime drone ("Ушкуйник") enhances RF's capabilities for covert maritime hybrid operations against critical infrastructure. The reported drone attack on Greta Thunberg's vessel in Tunisia, while unverified as UAF action, introduces a new, highly deniable vector for disrupting international events or testing responses outside the direct conflict zone. This could be a precursor to a more significant hybrid operation if RF were to conduct a similar deniable attack. The escalated rhetoric against Finland (Kartapolov's statements) could precede or accompany a hybrid operation against a Baltic or Nordic NATO member, further testing Article 5. NEW: Poland's decision to close its border with Belarus due to "Zapad-2025" exercises highlights the potential for RF to use large-scale military exercises as a cover or precursor for hybrid operations near NATO borders.
  • MDCOA: Overwhelming Combined Arms Assault on a Secondary Axis: RF shifts reserves and launches a large-scale, synchronized offensive on an un-anticipated secondary axis (e.g., Kupyansk-Lyman or Zaporizhzhia) to split UAF forces and create a multi-front crisis. This would likely be preceded by intensive EW and cyber-attacks. This could include a significant, rapid thrust into the Sumy region, leveraging the observed Naval Infantry presence, or a renewed, large-scale offensive on the Kharkiv axis following the claimed UAF withdrawal from Hlushchenkove. A coordinated large-scale RF offensive on the Sumy axis, aiming for Sumy city, preceded by heavy drone and artillery barrages, would be a MDCOA. This MDCOA would be significantly exacerbated by the reported UAF air defense system deficit (Оперативний ЗСУ), making UAF vulnerable to overwhelming air superiority on a new axis. Colonelcassad's renewed claim of "Yunakivka is ours!" and the continued funding efforts for "assault troops" in the Sumy direction, combined with intensified rhetoric against Finland (a bordering nation), raises the risk of a combined arms assault on the Sumy axis, potentially as a diversion or to exploit perceived UAF weaknesses. NEW: Kadyrov_95's drone footage showing strikes on the Kharkiv direction could be a precursor to a larger combined arms assault in that area, testing UAF defenses.

2.2. Recent tactical changes or adaptations (Confidence: HIGH)

• Expanded FPV Drone Operations: RF is increasingly employing FPV drones for specialized tactical roles beyond simple reconnaissance or direct strike, including using "Orlan-10" as FPV carriers, targeting communications in Kharkiv Oblast, and combined FPV/TM mine operations on the Vremevka direction. The recent destruction of a T-72 variant tank by drone in Kharkiv Oblast further emphasizes this adaptation. Colonelcassad's video compilation (Sumy direction), despite its ambiguous narrative, highlights the pervasive use of FPV drones in various operational contexts. The reported development of a foldable drone "Matryoshka" suggests tactical adaptation towards more durable and versatile drone platforms. Colonelcassad's new video compilation of FPV drone strikes on UAF infantry reinforces the proficiency and widespread tactical deployment of these assets. RF MOD "Vostok" group's claimed destruction of a UAF UAV control point highlights a tactical adaptation to target UAF drone infrastructure directly. TASS video showing "Baba Yaga" drones for reconnaissance indicates continued adaptation in air ISR assets. Colonelcassad's video showcasing the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade "Vostok" demonstrates continued tactical adaptation and proficiency in combat drone operations. "Воин DV" video (RF source) confirms the RF 29th Guards Army's UAV operators' effective use of drones in recent offensive operations on the Vremevka direction, indicating a refined integration of FPVs into ground assaults. Poddubny's claim of RF drones dominating the Izium-Barvinkove route suggests adaptation to drone-based interdiction of UAF logistics. TASS, citing Kimakovsky, reports RF UAV operators establishing fire control over UAF logistical routes near Krasny Liman, indicating an adaptive use of drones for area denial and interdiction. UAF Air Force reports hostile reconnaissance UAVs in northeastern Sumy, Kharkiv, southeastern Dnipropetropets, and Odesa oblasts, confirming persistent and adaptive RF aerial reconnaissance/targeting capabilities. UAF Air Force reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Chernihivskyi district, Chernihiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Konotop district, Sumy Oblast, indicating active RF drone deployment. Poddubny (RF source) video claims destruction of a UAF tank near Kovsharivka (Kupyansk direction) by 1st Guards Tank Army scouts using a small drone, further reinforcing adapted drone tactics for precision strikes. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Shahed launches from 4 locations, indicating adaptive multi-axis drone strike capabilities. Народная милиция ДНР posts video showing RF special purpose units using FPV drones to strike UAF positions, equipment, and drones (including "Baba Yaga"), demonstrating adaptive use for both strike and counter-drone operations. Народная милиция ДНР also posts video showing "Sparta" battalion liquidating a UAF UAV control point, demonstrating adaptive counter-UAV capabilities. Старше Эдды posts thermal imaging drone footage showcasing "robots hitting robots," emphasizing the advanced and adaptive nature of RF drone warfare. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video showing a Ukrainian military unit using a drone for detection and engagement of two Russian soldiers in a bush area near Chasiv Yar, implying RF adaptation in concealment. TASS reports RF forces destroyed a pickup truck carrying British radios for UAF in Konstantinovka, implying drone-assisted targeting of logistical convoys. Воин DV reports the 36th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade used drones to destroy an enemy tank, further demonstrating adaptive drone usage for anti-armor operations. Odesa schools receiving Shahed warnings confirms active RF drone deployment in the south. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a video captioned "Night hunt of the Steel 144th Motor Rifle Division's drone operators. It's interesting to observe how robots hit robots, a prototype of future warfare..." This explicitly highlights RF's adaptive focus on advanced drone warfare, including counter-drone tactics. NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF) drone footage of strikes on alleged UAF UAV control points in residential areas shows adaptive precision targeting of UAF command nodes in hybrid environments. NEW: Kadyrov_95 (RF) drone footage from the Kharkiv direction shows continued adaptive use of drones for reconnaissance and tactical strikes against UAF fortified positions.
• Refined Air Campaign Strategy: While overall drone attack volume has fluctuated (now 84 UAVs, 50 Shaheds), the continued focus on critical energy infrastructure (Trypilska TPP, DTEK enrichment plant, Novhorod-Siverskyi substation, and recent drone strikes on Zaporizhzhia) demonstrates a refined strategy for degrading Ukraine's winter resilience. The deployment of Tu-95MS strategic bombers signals a potential for upcoming large-scale missile strikes. The detailed information about foreign components in the Iskander-K missile (30+) suggests RF has adapted to sanctions regimes to maintain its high-precision strike capabilities, either through illicit procurement or indigenous reverse-engineering of foreign technology. Continued KAB launches on Sumy Oblast confirm the persistence of tactical air-to-ground capabilities. ASTRA's report of 5 additional KABs dropped on RF and occupied territories demonstrates continued deployment of these tactical air munitions. The Iskander-M strike on an industrial facility in Druzhkivka further emphasizes a refined strategy to target industrial capacity. The renewed ballistic missile threat from the northeast, immediately after previous strikes, indicates an adaptive, high-tempo air campaign. TASS reports RF "practically destroyed" Latin American mercenaries in Dnipropetrovsk using airstrikes, implying a tactical adaptation to use air power to target specific pockets of resistance or high-value personnel. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF forces destroyed "Lyut" Brigade warehouses in Kramatorsk, indicating continued adaptation to target UAF military infrastructure. UAF Air Force reports Shahed launches from Bryansk, Kursk, Oryol, and Crimea, showing RF's adaptive multi-axis air strike capability. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches on northern Kharkiv Oblast, confirming persistent tactical air-to-ground strike capabilities. Mash na Donbasse reports damage to two schools and a kindergarten in Donetsk, reinforcing RF's capability to inflict damage on civilian areas, regardless of intent. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Prymorske of Zaporizhzhia region, Mykolayivka of Kherson region. This confirms continued RF tactical air support. ASTRA reports a UAV attack on Mariupol airport, resulting in RF casualties and equipment loss, confirming RF presence and vulnerability to UAF strikes on occupied territory. Colonelcassad's "Chronicle of strikes" confirms sustained RF air/missile strike activity and damage. TASS, citing RF MoD, claims destruction of a UAF S-300 air defense system launcher and control cabin within the last 24 hours. A ballistic missile threat for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarivskyi and Dnipropetrovskyi districts) indicates immediate RF missile strike capability. Odesa schools receiving Shahed warnings confirms active and adaptive RF drone deployment. RF's alleged aviation bomb strike on Yarova, if confirmed as deliberate, represents a significant adaptation to employ highly destructive munitions on civilian areas. НгП раZVедка claims Ukraine is trying to pass off its crime in Yarova as a FAB strike, indicating adaptive counter-IO. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts night vision video showing the engagement and apparent destruction of a vehicle by what appears to be missile/explosive ordnance by "Northern" Group of Forces, confirming continued RF tactical air support. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, citing RF MOD, claims RF PVO forces shot down 5 cruise missiles, 5 HIMARS rockets, and 230 UAF UAVs in the last 24 hours, indicating a robust (though likely exaggerated) air defense capability that UAF air operations must contend with. NEW: Mash na Donbasse reports power outages in Donetsk, Makeevka, and Ilovaisk, indicating an adaptive strategy to target civilian infrastructure and disrupt daily life.
• Adaptive IO Targeting: RF IO has rapidly adapted to attribute UAF strikes on Donetsk and Makeevka to Storm Shadow missiles and various UAVs, a significant escalation to discredit UAF and its Western partners. The "Zaluzhny/Nord Stream" narrative is a new, high-level disinformation tactic. Colonelcassad's latest video attempting to discredit Syrsky and Yermak also indicates continuous adaptation in IO tactics, as do the new claims regarding a downed Storm Shadow in Donetsk. The TASS interview alleging war crimes by foreign mercenaries ("Chosen Company") is a new, highly targeted disinformation effort aimed at foreign military support for Ukraine, now including allegations of executions and chemical weapons use. Amplification of anti-Ukraine aid sentiment in the US (Marjorie Taylor Greene) and exploiting perceived vulnerabilities in Western disinformation defenses (РБК-Україна report). Golikova's statements regarding the "fading" of attempts to "cancel Russian culture" reflect an adaptive counter-narrative to international criticism. Mironov's proposal for free expiring goods for vulnerable populations, and the government's support for a bill on dangerous dogs, indicates an adaptation of domestic IO to focus on social welfare and public order. Peskov's comments on Putin's birthday further reinforce the image of a stable leader. Colonelcassad's series of "БУДЬТЕ ВНИМАТЕЛЬНЫ и ОСТОРОЖНЫ!" (BE CAREFUL and CAUTIOUS!) messages with photos of alleged ordnance and mine warning signs is a new tactical IO adaptation to influence civilian behavior and implicitly blame UAF for dangers in occupied or contested territories. RF is also adapting its domestic IO to showcase national projects and cultural initiatives, projecting an image of stable development and integration, including in newly occupied territories. TASS, citing Miroshnik, immediately reports on civilian casualties from alleged UAF strikes, a consistent IO tactic to portray Ukraine as attacking civilians. Margarita Simonyan's personal news is used to maintain a narrative of normalcy and human connection for key figures. Basurin's "Day in History" is part of a broader historical/cultural IO effort. Fighterbomber's "Wake up and sing, country!" is a morale-boosting, nationalistic message. TASS citing Miroshnik on daily UAF munitions impacting RF territory reinforces the narrative of a threat to RF civilians. Kotsnews video from Makeevka is part of the RF narrative of UAF attacking civilians. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS amplifying The Times' assessment indicates RF's deliberate escalation. Moscow News' report on antidepressant demand could be leveraged as a subtle IO element, contrasting with an image of resilience. TASS, citing Golikova, emphasizing the 80th anniversary of Victory as a central theme for the St. Petersburg Forum, reinforces a historical narrative for current state legitimacy. TASS, citing Nikoronova, claiming Finnish politicians will be accountable for poor relations with Russia, illustrates an adaptive IO tactic to influence public opinion in neighboring countries. ТАСС, citing Kartapolov, continues anti-Finland rhetoric. ТАСС, citing Kimakovsky's report on Latin American mercenaries in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), indicates an adaptive IO focus on foreign fighters, likely to demoralize UAF and deter further foreign involvement. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's claim about UAF footage of Zaporizhzhia fires and uninhabited houses demonstrates a proactive, adaptive IO tactic to neutralize UAF claims of civilian casualties. Rybar's cartographic overview (video) immediately linking Western support for Ukraine to alleged UAF civilian strikes demonstrates an adaptive IO tactic to discredit Western aid and UAF actions simultaneously. Filolog v Zasade's video, implying mismanagement of water funds in Donetsk, is an adaptive internal IO tactic, possibly to preempt or deflect from broader criticism. TASS, citing Volodin's criticism of Macron, directly targets Western political leadership, intending to fracture Western unity and divert attention from the conflict. Colonelcassad stating "Russia is undoubtedly aware of these plans," referring to Western plans, and citing Putin and the Foreign Intelligence Service, is a high-level IO tactic to project RF's omniscient intelligence capabilities and pre-emptively counter any Western initiatives. TASS reports on social services options for Russians and the sale of Domodedovo airport contribute to a domestic IO narrative of a functioning, well-governed state focused on internal affairs. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's report that "Asif withdrew his candidacy" and "all's well that ends well" appears to be an internal RF political/social commentary, implying resolution of a local issue, contributing to a sense of stability. Moscow News reporting 36% increase in antidepressant demand could be a subtle indicator of domestic stress, but will likely be overshadowed by narratives of external threat and military success. Colonelcassad's POW video is designed to generate public outrage and strengthen domestic support by portraying UAF as brutal. Mash na Donbasse's video on Makeevka damage and casualties aims to further galvanize public opinion against Ukraine. Рыбарь's "Infection Garden of Europe" graphic aims to create negative public sentiment towards Europe among the Russian populace. "Два майора" (RF source) call for donations reflects ongoing public engagement and support for the war effort, even if localized. Kotsnews video shows RF soldiers receiving supplies, which will boost morale among RF forces and their supporters. "Два майора" video showing injured RF soldiers being evacuated from combat will resonate with domestic audiences about the sacrifices being made. Colonelcassad reports on sentencing of Ukrainian saboteurs, reinforcing the narrative of internal security and state strength. "Два майора" posts photos of Sochi mayor inspecting drone damage, likely to amplify public outrage and support for retaliation. The grim video of injured Russian soldiers in a trench from МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, discussing lack of water and severe infection, is a significant negative indicator for Russian troop morale and could be detrimental if widely disseminated. Mash на Донбассе reports damage to two schools and a kindergarten in Donetsk, which will be heavily leveraged to fuel public outrage and support for military actions. TASS reports difficulties finding a new PM could lead to Macron's resignation, reinforcing narratives of Western weakness. "Два майора" posts image claiming Ukraine's arms production is increasingly moved abroad, aimed at showing UAF weakness. Басурин о главном and TASS post on "I am Russian" phrase and trademark, further reinforcing nationalistic sentiment. WarGonzo posts photo message on Donetsk liberation day, aimed at eliciting emotional responses and galvanizing support. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны post photo messages on Ukrainian refugees, intended to highlight the humanitarian costs for Ukraine. TASS reports on Nepal protests, which will be presented as evidence of global instability beyond Russia's actions. Старше Эдды video on knife sharpening is likely for domestic consumption, projecting normalcy. TASS, citing Lavrov, continues the "Nazi virus" narrative, a persistent anti-Western IO. TASS, citing US Vice-President J.D. Vance, comparing Trump-Epstein to Russiagate, is an RF IO effort to sow discord in US politics. Sever.Realii reports a St. Petersburg deputy was not fined for a Navalny photo, which could be spun by RF IO as a sign of justice or, by opposition, as a small win against suppression. TASS reports on a human rights activist sentenced for "fakes" about Bucha, which reinforces the narrative of suppressing dissent. TASS also reports on financial penalties for an individual convicted of an explosion in Stupino, which will be leveraged as a demonstration of state control. TASS reports Pierre de Gaulle, grandson of Charles de Gaulle, wishes to acquire Russian citizenship, demonstrating RF IO's capability to attract high-profile Western figures and challenge Western narratives. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА promotes a new Russian Orthodox war film, showcasing RF's capability for state-supported morale boosting and propaganda through cultural means. Рыбарь posts on "Lost Americans on the Armenian border," indicating RF IO to undermine US influence. "Два майора" reports the dismissal of the French Prime Minister, an RF IO effort to highlight Western political instability. The large narcotics bust in Moscow Oblast will be used to highlight internal security successes. RF's recruitment video (Военкор Котенок) aims to boost morale and commitment. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны amplifying Arestovych's skepticism regarding the Iskander strike aims to cause confusion within Ukraine and reassure Russian audiences about the strike's success. НгП раZVедка claims Ukraine is trying to pass off its crime in Yarova as a FAB strike, a direct counter-IO effort to shift blame. Старше Эдды comments on protests in Nepal, attributing them to social media blockades and criticizing the government's approach, indicating an adaptive RF IO effort to influence perceptions of censorship and civil unrest globally, potentially to shape domestic narratives as well, by cautioning against social media bans. Alex Parker Returns' numerous photo messages (funeral receipt, medical documents, IDs) are likely an IO effort intended to fabricate casualties or highlight alleged negative impacts on civilians, likely for IO purposes to discredit UAF actions or Western support. TASS reports Peskov stating Putin's schedule was not affected by the Sochi drone attack, reinforcing domestic IO of strong, unwavering leadership. Басурин о главном's new program and Старше Эдды's economic-nationalist narrative further demonstrate effective C2 within the milblogger network and state media for consistent IO messaging, aiming to reinforce domestic support. WarGonzo posts photo messages claiming "Generation Z overthrows government in Nepal," aiming to highlight global instability and imply a model for change, potentially for domestic or international consumption. TASS reports Lavrov strongly condemns Western attempts to remove Milorad Dodik from power in Republika Srpska, demonstrating RF's continued use of IO to support pro-Russian figures and oppose Western influence in the Balkans. Colonelcassad posts video of the aftermath of an attack in Yarova, blaming UAF for a "provocation" against civilians receiving pensions, similar to the Kramatorsk attack. This is an immediate and aggressive counter-IO effort to shift blame for civilian casualties. Operativny ZSU posts video of Andrey Kartapolov making escalating statements against Finland, labeling it a "hotbed of fascism." This is an aggressive and escalating IO tactic aimed at Finland and NATO. ASTRA reports a Russian artist, Alexey Kiryanov, has been put on a wanted list after being sentenced to 12 days for inciting hatred against "Putin's voters." This indicates internal suppression of dissent and an IO effort to label critics as extremist. "Два майора" posts photo message raising concerns about "Azerbaijani diaspora" influence in Udmurtia regional elections. This indicates RF's internal political messaging efforts to address perceived ethnic/migrant issues, potentially for domestic nationalistic appeal. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a photo of Putin integrated into a "MAX" interface, indicating RF's efforts to expand its digital presence and influence as part of its IO strategy. Оперативний ЗСУ reports, citing Reuters, that the RF government views demobilization as a greater risk than the return of "Afghans" in '89, indicating concerns about the social impact of returning veterans. Операция Z (citing Russian Spring War Correspondents) reports 150,000 people subscribed to Putin's channel on Max in the first 24 hours, a clear IO effort to project popular support for Putin. ТАСС, citing Maria Zakharova, reports an ethnographer was released by Afghan authorities due to friendly relations with Moscow. This is an IO effort to project Russia's diplomatic influence and global reach, especially with non-Western aligned states. TASS reports on a proposal to limit "unjustified complaints" against artists, indicating an IO effort to protect cultural figures and manage internal discontent. NEW: TASS posts videos of protestors capturing and burning the Nepalese parliament building, and later burning the house of former Prime Minister Nath Khanal, with his wife seriously injured. This will be immediately leveraged by RF IO to highlight global instability and social unrest, diverting attention from Ukraine and potentially serving as a model for promoting anti-Western narratives. NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts a video of "some kind Russian people" making an offer to Roman Alekhin, and later posts photo messages defending Alekhin. This suggests an internal RF IO campaign to discredit or rehabilitate a pro-war blogger, highlighting internal conflicts within the RF information space related to integrity and finance. This also demonstrates RF's intent to control its internal narrative and address perceived corruption or misbehavior within the pro-war community. NEW: "Два майора" posts a message criticizing Roman Alekhin for his video, stating he "compromised the entire volunteer movement." This confirms an intent to address internal issues within the pro-war milblogger community, aiming to maintain credibility and trust. NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a photo message recruitment advertisement for the Russian military, displaying the Russian flag and emphasizing "Defend your country! We are looking for the brave!" This is a direct IO effort to encourage military service and maintain force levels. NEW: Старше Эдды (RF) posts a video with #КультураДНР, showing a live music performance. This is an an IO effort to project normalcy, cultural life, and integration in occupied territories, aiming to boost local morale and normalize occupation. NEW: Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны (RF) posts a video quoting Polish President Nawrocki stating "there is no need for the presence of Polish troops in Ukraine." This is an IO effort to highlight perceived divisions or a lack of commitment within NATO regarding direct military involvement in Ukraine.
  • New Maritime Drone (USV): The development of an "Ушкуйник" fiber-optic USV indicates RF's growing capability in maritime drone warfare, potentially for reconnaissance, sabotage, or attack, offering a stealthier and more resilient alternative to traditional USVs. ASTRA reports on the development of this fiber-optic maritime drone, confirming its existence.
  • Anti-Drone Defense Systems (Development): Colonelcassad posts images of "Darwin" Russian anti-drone net kits developed by "Mechanical Protection Systems" company, indicating RF's active development of layered defenses against UAF drones. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • Legal/Internal Enforcement: TASS reports conviction of human rights activist Grigory Sverdlin for "fakes" about RF Armed Forces and Oleg Sorokin for corruption, indicating continued use of legal mechanisms for internal control and to suppress dissent, as well as combat corruption. TASS reports a human rights activist sentenced to 6 years for a post about Bucha, highlighting continued suppression of dissent. TASS also reports on financial penalties for an individual convicted of an explosion in Stupino. Colonelcassad reports a large narcotics bust in Moscow Oblast, indicating internal security operations. Moscow News and TASS report the seizure of 300 kg of cocaine (valued at 250 million rubles) in Moscow Oblast, hidden in a shipment of apples from Moldova. This is an internal RF security matter. "Два майора" posts video showing Russian military personnel detaining an individual in military camouflage, labelled "terrorist accomplice" from Astrakhan. This confirms ongoing internal security operations within RF. ASTRA reports a Russian artist, Alexey Kiryanov, has been put on a wanted list after being sentenced to 12 days for inciting hatred against "Putin's voters." This indicates internal suppression of dissent and an IO effort to label critics as extremist. NEW: ASTRA posts a video alleging Z-blogger Roman Alekhin is suspected of money laundering, which suggests an intent to address internal corruption or illegal financial activities even within pro-war circles.
  • Military Recruitment: (Confidence: HIGH) Военкор Котенок posts a recruitment video for Russian special forces, highlighting incentives and training. This indicates sustained RF efforts to attract high-quality military personnel. NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a photo message recruitment advertisement, explicitly calling for "brave" individuals to "Defend your country!" This demonstrates an intent to sustain force levels through direct appeals. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF) posts a "COLLECTION FOR A PARATROOPER🫡" message, indicating an intent to rely on volunteer efforts to supplement military sustainment. NEW: Colonelcassad posts a video of a "COLLECTION FOR THE 4th AUTO-COLUMN," showing military-style vehicles. This is a direct appeal for donations to support logistical needs for specific units, further corroborating reliance on volunteer efforts.
  • Agricultural Production: TASS reports Russia's 2025 grain harvest is almost 105 million tons, exceeding last year's, indicating sustained agricultural production, which is a foundational element of state sustainment.
  • Internal Political Messaging: "Два майора" posts photo message raising concerns about "Azerbaijani diaspora" influence in Udmurtia regional elections. This indicates RF's internal political messaging efforts to address perceived ethnic/migrant issues, potentially for domestic nationalistic appeal.
  • Border Security: NEW: TASS reports Poland will close its border with Belarus due to "Zapad-2025" exercises. This demonstrates an intent to conduct large-scale military exercises that influence border security in neighboring NATO states.
  • Tourism: NEW: TASS reports the most expensive tour this summer was sold for 34 million rubles to Turkey, indicating continued economic activity and consumer spending among some segments of the Russian population, which RF intends to project as normalcy.

2.2. Recent tactical changes or adaptations (Confidence: HIGH)

• Expanded FPV Drone Operations: RF is increasingly employing FPV drones for specialized tactical roles beyond simple reconnaissance or direct strike, including using "Orlan-10" as FPV carriers, targeting communications in Kharkiv Oblast, and combined FPV/TM mine operations on the Vremevka direction. The recent destruction of a T-72 variant tank by drone in Kharkiv Oblast further emphasizes this adaptation. Colonelcassad's video compilation (Sumy direction), despite its ambiguous narrative, highlights the pervasive use of FPV drones in various operational contexts. The reported development of a foldable drone "Matryoshka" suggests tactical adaptation towards more durable and versatile drone platforms. Colonelcassad's new video compilation of FPV drone strikes on UAF infantry reinforces the proficiency and widespread tactical deployment of these assets. RF MOD "Vostok" group's claimed destruction of a UAF UAV control point highlights a tactical adaptation to target UAF drone infrastructure directly. TASS video showing "Baba Yaga" drones for reconnaissance indicates continued adaptation in air ISR assets. Colonelcassad's video showcasing the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade "Vostok" demonstrates continued tactical adaptation and proficiency in combat drone operations. "Воин DV" video (RF source) confirms the RF 29th Guards Army's UAV operators' effective use of drones in recent offensive operations on the Vremevka direction, indicating a refined integration of FPVs into ground assaults. Poddubny's claim of RF drones dominating the Izium-Barvinkove route suggests adaptation to drone-based interdiction of UAF logistics. TASS, citing Kimakovsky, reports RF UAV operators establishing fire control over UAF logistical routes near Krasny Liman, indicating an adaptive use of drones for area denial and interdiction. UAF Air Force reports hostile reconnaissance UAVs in northeastern Sumy, Kharkiv, southeastern Dnipropetropets, and Odesa oblasts, confirming persistent and adaptive RF aerial reconnaissance/targeting capabilities. UAF Air Force reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Chernihivskyi district, Chernihiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Konotop district, Sumy Oblast, indicating active RF drone deployment. Poddubny (RF source) video claims destruction of a UAF tank near Kovsharivka (Kupyansk direction) by 1st Guards Tank Army scouts using a small drone, further reinforcing adapted drone tactics for precision strikes. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Shahed launches from 4 locations, indicating adaptive multi-axis drone strike capabilities. Народная милиция ДНР posts video showing RF special purpose units using FPV drones to strike UAF positions, equipment, and drones (including "Baba Yaga"), demonstrating adaptive use for both strike and counter-drone operations. Народная милиция ДНР also posts video showing "Sparta" battalion liquidating a UAF UAV control point, demonstrating adaptive counter-UAV capabilities. Старше Эдды posts thermal imaging drone footage showcasing "robots hitting robots," emphasizing the advanced and adaptive nature of RF drone warfare. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video showing a Ukrainian military unit using a drone for detection and engagement of two Russian soldiers in a bush area near Chasiv Yar, implying RF adaptation in concealment. TASS reports RF forces destroyed a pickup truck carrying British radios for UAF in Konstantinovka, implying drone-assisted targeting of logistical convoys. Воин DV reports the 36th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade used drones to destroy an enemy tank, further demonstrating adaptive drone usage for anti-armor operations. Odesa schools receiving Shahed warnings confirms active RF drone deployment in the south. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a video captioned "Night hunt of the Steel 144th Motor Rifle Division's drone operators. It's interesting to observe how robots hit robots, a prototype of future warfare..." This explicitly highlights RF's adaptive focus on advanced drone warfare, including counter-drone tactics. NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF) drone footage of strikes on alleged UAF UAV control points in residential areas shows adaptive precision targeting of UAF command nodes in hybrid environments. NEW: Kadyrov_95 (RF) drone footage from the Kharkiv direction shows continued adaptive use of drones for reconnaissance and tactical strikes against UAF fortified positions.
• Refined Air Campaign Strategy: While overall drone attack volume has fluctuated (now 84 UAVs, 50 Shaheds), the continued focus on critical energy infrastructure (Trypilska TPP, DTEK enrichment plant, Novhorod-Siverskyi substation, and recent drone strikes on Zaporizhzhia) demonstrates a refined strategy for degrading Ukraine's winter resilience. The deployment of Tu-95MS strategic bombers signals a potential for upcoming large-scale missile strikes. The detailed information about foreign components in the Iskander-K missile (30+) suggests RF has adapted to sanctions regimes to maintain its high-precision strike capabilities, either through illicit procurement or indigenous reverse-engineering of foreign technology. Continued KAB launches on Sumy Oblast confirm the persistence of tactical air-to-ground capabilities. ASTRA's report of 5 additional KABs dropped on RF and occupied territories demonstrates continued deployment of these tactical air munitions. The Iskander-M strike on an industrial facility in Druzhkivka further emphasizes a refined strategy to target industrial capacity. The renewed ballistic missile threat from the northeast, immediately after previous strikes, indicates an adaptive, high-tempo air campaign. TASS reports RF "practically destroyed" Latin American mercenaries in Dnipropetrovsk using airstrikes, implying a tactical adaptation to use air power to target specific pockets of resistance or high-value personnel. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF forces destroyed "Lyut" Brigade warehouses in Kramatorsk, indicating continued adaptation to target UAF military infrastructure. UAF Air Force reports Shahed launches from Bryansk, Kursk, Oryol, and Crimea, showing RF's adaptive multi-axis air strike capability. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches on northern Kharkiv Oblast, confirming persistent tactical air-to-ground strike capabilities. Mash na Donbasse reports damage to two schools and a kindergarten in Donetsk, reinforcing RF's capability to inflict damage on civilian areas, regardless of intent. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Prymorske of Zaporizhzhia region, Mykolayivka of Kherson region. This confirms continued RF tactical air support. ASTRA reports a UAV attack on Mariupol airport, resulting in RF casualties and equipment loss, confirming RF presence and vulnerability to UAF strikes on occupied territory. Colonelcassad's "Chronicle of strikes" confirms sustained RF air/missile strike activity and damage. TASS, citing RF MoD, claims destruction of a UAF S-300 air defense system launcher and control cabin within the last 24 hours. A ballistic missile threat for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Samarivskyi and Dnipropetrovskyi districts) indicates immediate RF missile strike capability. Odesa schools receiving Shahed warnings confirms active and adaptive RF drone deployment. RF's alleged aviation bomb strike on Yarova, if confirmed as deliberate, represents a significant adaptation to employ highly destructive munitions on civilian areas. НгП раZVедка claims Ukraine is trying to pass off its crime in Yarova as a FAB strike, indicating adaptive counter-IO. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts night vision video showing the engagement and apparent destruction of a vehicle by what appears to be missile/explosive ordnance by "Northern" Group of Forces, confirming continued RF tactical air support. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, citing RF MOD, claims RF PVO forces shot down 5 cruise missiles, 5 HIMARS rockets, and 230 UAF UAVs in the last 24 hours, indicating a robust (though likely exaggerated) air defense capability that UAF air operations must contend with. NEW: Mash na Donbasse reports power outages in Donetsk, Makeevka, and Ilovaisk, indicating a refined strategy to target civilian infrastructure and disrupt daily life.
• Adaptive IO Targeting: RF IO has rapidly adapted to attribute UAF strikes on Donetsk and Makeevka to Storm Shadow missiles and various UAVs, a significant escalation to discredit UAF and its Western partners. The "Zaluzhny/Nord Stream" narrative is a new, high-level disinformation tactic. Colonelcassad's latest video attempting to discredit Syrsky and Yermak also indicates continuous adaptation in IO tactics, as do the new claims regarding a downed Storm Shadow in Donetsk. The TASS interview alleging war crimes by foreign mercenaries ("Chosen Company") is a new, highly targeted disinformation effort aimed at foreign military support for Ukraine, now including allegations of executions and chemical weapons use. Amplification of anti-Ukraine aid sentiment in the US (Marjorie Taylor Greene) and exploiting perceived vulnerabilities in Western disinformation defenses (РБК-Україна report). Golikova's statements regarding the "fading" of attempts to "cancel Russian culture" reflect an adaptive counter-narrative to international criticism. Mironov's proposal for free expiring goods for vulnerable populations, and the government's support for a bill on dangerous dogs, indicates an adaptation of domestic IO to focus on social welfare and public order. Peskov's comments on Putin's birthday further reinforce the image of a stable leader. Colonelcassad's series of "БУДЬТЕ ВНИМАТЕЛЬНЫ и ОСТОРОЖНЫ!" (BE CAREFUL and CAUTIOUS!) messages with photos of alleged ordnance and mine warning signs is a new tactical IO adaptation to influence civilian behavior and implicitly blame UAF for dangers in occupied or contested territories. RF is also adapting its domestic IO to showcase national projects and cultural initiatives, projecting an image of stable development and integration, including in newly occupied territories. TASS, citing Miroshnik, immediately reports on civilian casualties from alleged UAF strikes, a consistent IO tactic to portray Ukraine as attacking civilians. Margarita Simonyan's personal news is used to maintain a narrative of normalcy and human connection for key figures. Basurin's "Day in History" is part of a broader historical/cultural IO effort. Fighterbomber's "Wake up and sing, country!" is a morale-boosting, nationalistic message. TASS citing Miroshnik on daily UAF munitions impacting RF territory reinforces the narrative of a threat to RF civilians. Kotsnews video from Makeevka is part of the RF narrative of UAF attacking civilians. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS amplifying The Times' assessment indicates RF's deliberate escalation. Moscow News' report on antidepressant demand could be leveraged as a subtle IO element, contrasting with an image of resilience. TASS, citing Golikova, emphasizing the 80th anniversary of Victory as a central theme for the St. Petersburg Forum, reinforces a historical narrative for current state legitimacy. TASS, citing Nikoronova, claiming Finnish politicians will be accountable for poor relations with Russia, illustrates an adaptive IO tactic to influence public opinion in neighboring countries. ТАСС, citing Kartapolov, continues anti-Finland rhetoric. ТАСС, citing Kimakovsky's report on Latin American mercenaries in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), indicates an adaptive IO focus on foreign fighters, likely to demoralize UAF and deter further foreign involvement. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's claim about UAF footage of Zaporizhzhia fires and uninhabited houses demonstrates a proactive, adaptive IO tactic to neutralize UAF claims of civilian casualties. Rybar's cartographic overview (video) immediately linking Western support for Ukraine to alleged UAF civilian strikes demonstrates an adaptive IO tactic to discredit Western aid and UAF actions simultaneously. Filolog v Zasade's video, implying mismanagement of water funds in Donetsk, is an adaptive internal IO tactic, possibly to preempt or deflect from broader criticism. TASS, citing Volodin's criticism of Macron, directly targets Western political leadership, intending to fracture Western unity and divert attention from the conflict. Colonelcassad stating "Russia is undoubtedly aware of these plans," referring to Western plans, and citing Putin and the Foreign Intelligence Service, is a high-level IO tactic to project RF's omniscient intelligence capabilities and pre-emptively counter any Western initiatives. TASS reports on social services options for Russians and the sale of Domodedovo airport contribute to a domestic IO narrative of a functioning, well-governed state focused on internal affairs. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's report that "Asif withdrew his candidacy" and "all's well that ends well" appears to be an internal RF political/social commentary, implying resolution of a local issue, contributing to a sense of stability. Moscow News reporting 36% increase in antidepressant demand could be a subtle indicator of domestic stress, but will likely be overshadowed by narratives of external threat and military success. Colonelcassad's POW video is designed to generate public outrage and strengthen domestic support by portraying UAF as brutal. Mash na Donbasse's video on Makeevka damage and casualties aims to further galvanize public opinion against Ukraine. Рыбарь's "Infection Garden of Europe" graphic aims to create negative public sentiment towards Europe among the Russian populace. "Два майора" (RF source) call for donations reflects ongoing public engagement and support for the war effort, even if localized. Kotsnews video shows RF soldiers receiving supplies, which will boost morale among RF forces and their supporters. "Два майора" video showing injured RF soldiers being evacuated from combat will resonate with domestic audiences about the sacrifices being made. Colonelcassad reports on sentencing of Ukrainian saboteurs, reinforcing the narrative of internal security and state strength. "Два майора" posts photos of Sochi mayor inspecting drone damage, likely to amplify public outrage and support for retaliation. The grim video of injured Russian soldiers in a trench from МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, discussing lack of water and severe infection, is a significant negative indicator for Russian troop morale and could be detrimental if widely disseminated. Mash на Донбассе reports damage to two schools and a kindergarten in Donetsk, which will be heavily leveraged to fuel public outrage and support for military actions. TASS reports difficulties finding a new PM could lead to Macron's resignation, reinforcing narratives of Western weakness. "Два майора" posts image claiming Ukraine's arms production is increasingly moved abroad, aimed at showing UAF weakness. Басурин о главном and TASS post on "I am Russian" phrase and trademark, further reinforcing nationalistic sentiment. WarGonzo posts photo message on Donetsk liberation day, aimed at eliciting emotional responses and galvanizing support. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны post photo messages on Ukrainian refugees, intended to highlight the humanitarian costs for Ukraine. TASS reports on Nepal protests, which will be presented as evidence of global instability beyond Russia's actions. Старше Эдды video on knife sharpening is likely for domestic consumption, projecting normalcy. TASS, citing Lavrov, continues the "Nazi virus" narrative, a persistent anti-Western IO. TASS, citing US Vice-President J.D. Vance, comparing Trump-Epstein to Russiagate, is an RF IO effort to sow discord in US politics. Sever.Realii reports a St. Petersburg deputy was not fined for a Navalny photo, which could be spun by RF IO as a sign of justice or, by opposition, as a small win against suppression. TASS reports on a human rights activist sentenced for "fakes" about Bucha, which reinforces the narrative of suppressing dissent. TASS also reports on financial penalties for an individual convicted of an explosion in Stupino, which will be leveraged as a demonstration of state control. TASS reports Pierre de Gaulle, grandson of Charles de Gaulle, wishes to acquire Russian citizenship, demonstrating RF IO's capability to attract high-profile Western figures and challenge Western narratives. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА promotes a new Russian Orthodox war film, showcasing RF's capability for state-supported morale boosting and propaganda through cultural means. Рыбарь posts on "Lost Americans on the Armenian border," indicating RF IO to undermine US influence. "Два майора" reports the dismissal of the French Prime Minister, an RF IO effort to highlight Western political instability. The large narcotics bust in Moscow Oblast will be used to highlight internal security successes. RF's recruitment video (Военкор Котенок) aims to boost morale and commitment. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны amplifying Arestovych's skepticism regarding the Iskander strike aims to cause confusion within Ukraine and reassure Russian audiences about the strike's success. НгП раZVедка claims Ukraine is trying to pass off its crime in Yarova as a FAB strike, a direct counter-IO effort to shift blame. Старше Эдды comments on protests in Nepal, attributing them to social media blockades and criticizing the government's approach, indicating an adaptive RF IO effort to influence perceptions of censorship and civil unrest globally, potentially to shape domestic narratives as well, by cautioning against social media bans. Alex Parker Returns' numerous photo messages (funeral receipt, medical documents, IDs) are likely an IO effort intended to fabricate casualties or highlight alleged negative impacts on civilians, likely for IO purposes to discredit UAF actions or Western support. TASS reports Peskov stating Putin's schedule was not affected by the Sochi drone attack, reinforcing domestic IO of strong, unwavering leadership. Басурин о главном's new program and Старше Эдды's economic-nationalist narrative further demonstrate effective C2 within the milblogger network and state media for consistent IO messaging, aiming to reinforce domestic support. WarGonzo posts photo messages claiming "Generation Z overthrows government in Nepal," aiming to highlight global instability and imply a model for change, potentially for domestic or international consumption. TASS reports Lavrov strongly condemns Western attempts to remove Milorad Dodik from power in Republika Srpska, demonstrating RF's continued use of IO to support pro-Russian figures and oppose Western influence in the Balkans. Colonelcassad posts video of the aftermath of an attack in Yarova, blaming UAF for a "provocation" against civilians receiving pensions, similar to the Kramatorsk attack. This is an immediate and aggressive counter-IO effort to shift blame for civilian casualties. Operativny ZSU posts video of Andrey Kartapolov making escalating statements against Finland, labeling it a "hotbed of fascism." This is an aggressive and escalating IO tactic aimed at Finland and NATO. ASTRA reports a Russian artist, Alexey Kiryanov, has been put on a wanted list after being sentenced to 12 days for inciting hatred against "Putin's voters." This indicates internal suppression of dissent and an IO effort to label critics as extremist. "Два майора" posts photo message raising concerns about "Azerbaijani diaspora" influence in Udmurtia regional elections. This indicates RF's internal political messaging efforts to address perceived ethnic/migrant issues, potentially for domestic nationalistic appeal. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a photo of Putin integrated into a "MAX" interface, indicating RF's efforts to expand its digital presence and influence as part of its IO strategy. Оперативний ЗСУ reports, citing Reuters, that the RF government views demobilization as a greater risk than the return of "Afghans" in '89, indicating concerns about the social impact of returning veterans. Операция Z (citing Russian Spring War Correspondents) reports 150,000 people subscribed to Putin's channel on Max in the first 24 hours, a clear IO effort to project popular support for Putin. ТАСС, citing Maria Zakharova, reports an ethnographer was released by Afghan authorities due to friendly relations with Moscow. This is an IO effort to project Russia's diplomatic influence and global reach, especially with non-Western aligned states. TASS reports on a proposal to limit "unjustified complaints" against artists, indicating an IO effort to protect cultural figures and manage internal discontent. NEW: TASS posts videos of protestors capturing and burning the Nepalese parliament building, and later burning the house of former Prime Minister Nath Khanal, with his wife seriously injured. This will be immediately leveraged by RF IO to highlight global instability and social unrest, diverting attention from Ukraine and potentially serving as a model for promoting anti-Western narratives. NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts a video of "some kind Russian people" making an offer to Roman Alekhin, and later posts photo messages defending Alekhin. This suggests an internal RF IO campaign to discredit or rehabilitate a pro-war blogger, highlighting internal conflicts within the RF information space related to integrity and finance. This also demonstrates RF's intent to control its internal narrative and address perceived corruption or misbehavior within the pro-war community. NEW: "Два майора" posts a message criticizing Roman Alekhin for his video, stating he "compromised the entire volunteer movement." This confirms an intent to address internal issues within the pro-war milblogger community, aiming to maintain credibility and trust. NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a photo message recruitment advertisement for the Russian military, displaying the Russian flag and emphasizing "Defend your country! We are looking for the brave!" This is a direct IO effort to encourage military service and maintain force levels. NEW: Старше Эдды (RF) posts a video with #КультураДНР, showing a live music performance. This is an an IO effort to project normalcy, cultural life, and integration in occupied territories, aiming to boost local morale and normalize occupation. NEW: Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны (RF) posts a video quoting Polish President Nawrocki stating "there is no need for the presence of Polish troops in Ukraine." This is an IO effort to highlight perceived divisions or a lack of commitment within NATO regarding direct military involvement in Ukraine.
  • Enhanced Strategic C2 Signaling: The activation of the "UVB-76" strategic radio station is a significant and unusual adaptation, potentially signaling a change in RF strategic alert levels or a large-scale strategic communications exercise.
  • Renewed Emphasis on Sumy Axis? The "Сливочный каприз" video showing Naval Infantry activity near Sumy (Alekseevka) suggests a potential, renewed RF ground operational focus or enhanced reconnaissance/interdiction efforts in this region. This is a new development requiring further assessment. Reported hostile UAV activity on the Sumy/Chernihiv border indicates continued RF reconnaissance efforts in this region, reinforcing the potential for increased activity. New groups of RF UAVs in northern and northeastern Chernihiv Oblast, kursing southwest, further reinforce this pattern of persistent aerial reconnaissance and potential for expanded operations in Ukraine's northern regions. KAB launches on Sumy Oblast also point to continued air support for operations in this region. РБК-Україна (citing ISW) reporting UAF advances on the Sumy direction implies RF adaptation to counter UAF gains in this area. UAF Air Force reports hostile reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy Oblast, confirming persistent RF aerial reconnaissance efforts. The continued reporting of "high-speed targets" towards Khotiyn/Mykolayivka in Sumy Oblast further emphasizes an adaptive and persistent RF aerial presence and strike capability in the northern sector. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) and "Два майора" (RF source) claims and fundraising efforts for Sumy direction "assault troops" indicate a persistent and adaptive commitment to this sector. UAF Air Force reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Chernihivskyi district, Chernihiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Konotop district, Sumy Oblast, showing adaptive RF drone deployment. РБК-Україна reports RF forces attacked rescue workers and police in Sumy Oblast, indicating an adaptive shift in targeting to critical civilian services. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches on northern Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued adaptive air support in this region. Liveuamap Source reports UAF repelled 11 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, confirming adaptive RF pressure on this axis. Colonelcassad video shows "Anvar" special forces unit operating in the border areas of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, demonstrating adaptive use of special forces for cross-border operations. Colonelcassad claims "Yunakivka is ours!" (Sumy Oblast), reinforcing previous unverified claims.
  • Adaptive Airspace Control (RF Territory): RF authorities are demonstrating a rapid, localized response to UAF drone incursions into RF territory, as seen with the "red level" air danger in Lipetsk Oblast (now lifted) and temporary closure of Sochi airport. The lifting of the "yellow level" UAV threat in Lipetsk Oblast confirms ongoing, adaptive air defense protocols. RF MOD's reported shootdown of 31 Ukrainian UAVs overnight across multiple regions demonstrates an active and adaptive air defense system for internal security. "Два майора" posts photos of Sochi mayor inspecting damage, including a damaged cemetery, following a drone attack, demonstrating adaptive local response and damage assessment. UAF deep strike on Penza gas pipelines (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ) will likely lead to further adaptive RF air defense and internal security measures in the central regions. ASTRA reports Putin was likely in Sochi during drone attacks, potentially highlighting adaptive security protocols for leadership. ASTRA also reports a UAV attack on Mariupol airport, leading to RF casualties, indicating adaptive RF responses to defend occupied airspace. The UAF GUR deep strike on a pipeline in Saratov Oblast, Russia, indicates a new area of vulnerability and will likely trigger adaptive RF air defense and security responses in that region. The drone attack on the Belgorod oil depot will likely trigger adaptive RF air defense and security responses in that region. NEW: TASS reports Poland will close its border with Belarus due to "Zapad-2025" exercises. This demonstrates RF's (and Belarus') adaptive use of large-scale military exercises to influence border security in neighboring NATO states.
  • New Maritime Drone Capabilities: The reported development of a fiber-optic USV ("Ушкуйник") suggests RF is actively innovating in unmanned maritime systems, potentially for covert operations. ASTRA reports on the development of this fiber-optic maritime drone, confirming its existence.
  • Counter-Robotics Capabilities: TASS reports RF MOD claims destruction of a UAF robotic complex near Kleban-Byk, indicating RF adaptation to UAF robotic systems on the battlefield. Narodnaya militsiya ДНР posts video showing RF special purpose units using FPV drones to strike UAF drones (including "Baba Yaga"), demonstrating an adaptive counter-drone capability. Народная милиция ДНР also posts video showing "Sparta" battalion liquidating a UAF UAV control point, demonstrating adaptive counter-UAV capabilities. NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF) drone footage of strikes on alleged UAF UAV control points shows adaptive counter-drone tactics targeting UAF C2 infrastructure.
  • Anti-Drone Defense Systems (Development): Colonelcassad posts images of "Darwin" Russian anti-drone net kits developed by "Mechanical Protection Systems" company, indicating RF's active development of layered defenses against UAF drones. (Confidence: HIGH)
  • GPS Interference: STERNENKO reports nearly 123,000 airline flights affected by Russian GPS interference in the Baltic region. This indicates persistent RF EW capabilities.

2.3. Logistics and sustainment status (Confidence: MEDIUM)

RF logistics appear resilient enough to sustain ongoing offensives and air campaigns, despite UAF deep strikes. Munition and fuel resupply seems adequate for current operations, as evidenced by the ability to launch numerous UAVs (84 overnight, 50 Shaheds) and missiles, and to concentrate forces on the Pokrovsk axis. However, UAF deep strikes against RF territory (oil refineries, pipelines, NPS "Vtorovo", Penza gas pipelines, Saratov Oblast oil pipeline, Belgorod Oblast oil depot) and cyber operations targeting fuel card servers highlight persistent vulnerabilities. Internal reports of RF MOD seeking funds from Russian Railways could indicate inefficiencies. The temporary closure of Sochi airport and air danger in Lipetsk Oblast due to UAF drone activity could impact RF internal logistics, but these are likely localized disruptions unless UAF drone activity becomes more persistent and widespread across RF logistics hubs. The resumption of Sochi airport operations suggests that any logistical impact from the temporary closure was minimal. The confirmed UAF drone strike in Sochi, with a reported civilian fatality, could trigger enhanced localized air defense measures in critical areas within RF territory, potentially impacting civilian air traffic or requiring further resource allocation for internal security. However, it does not currently indicate a broader disruption to RF logistics. The analysis revealing over 30 foreign components in the Iskander-K missile indicates RF's continued reliance on, and capability to acquire, foreign components for its advanced weapons systems. This suggests a resilient (if complex) procurement and sustainment chain for critical high-tech munitions, potentially circumventing sanctions. The compulsory tax debt collection from "Khortytsia" brand owner could suggest RF is exploring all avenues for internal revenue generation to support the war effort, or simply enforcing domestic law. The ongoing criminal case against Andrey Gorshkov ("Rumo" board chairman) for large-scale fraud could indicate internal issues within Russia's industrial complex, which could indirectly affect sustainment, though there's no direct link to military production in this report. This highlights RF's efforts to maintain internal economic and legal order. The large number of UAVs (31) shot down over RF territory suggests that UAF deep strikes are placing a persistent demand on RF air defense resources and potentially impacting internal logistics, although RF claims high interception rates. The confirmed UAF strike on two fuel tanks at NPS "Vtorovo" demonstrates continued UAF efforts to impact RF fuel logistics. The repeated UAF strike on NPS "Vtorovo" (ASTRA) suggests persistent vulnerability in RF fuel infrastructure and UAF's continued ability to exploit it, putting ongoing strain on RF fuel logistics. Financial Times reports Ukraine may face a severe shortage of air defense systems due to slowed US supplies. This indicates potential future constraints on UAF's ability to defend against RF air attacks. Sever.Realii's report on businesses in Murmansk suffering losses exceeding profits due to high Central Bank rates and difficulty repaying loans suggests broader economic strain within RF that could indirectly affect industrial output and, consequently, military sustainment in the long term, by impacting the tax base or industrial capacity. TASS reports that the Russian Ministry of Finance has included Domodedovo Airport in its 2025 sales plan, following its nationalization. While an internal financial matter, this suggests RF is actively managing state assets, potentially to generate revenue or streamline economic control, which could have long-term implications for the financing of the war effort. "Два майора" (RF source) actively fundraising for "assault troops" in the Sumy direction, requesting drones, indicates ongoing, likely localized, resource requirements that are being met through volunteer efforts, suggesting potential gaps in state-provided logistics for specific units/needs. Филолог в засаде (RF source) also fundraising for "Tsekh 77" for "production needs" further supports this. TASS reports journalists from Lavrov's pool applying for US visas, while civilian, highlights ongoing diplomatic/media travel logistics for RF. Kotsnews video shows Russian Lt. Col. Igor Belenkov overseeing receipt of supplies (drones, electronics) from 'All for Victory' fund for units in LNR, further confirming reliance on volunteer/private funding for military sustainment. The grim video of injured Russian soldiers in a trench from МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, discussing lack of water, suggests localized medical and basic supply deficiencies, despite overall resilient logistics. TASS reports FAS identified a cartel in railway electrification, suggesting internal economic inefficiencies that could indirectly impact military-related infrastructure projects. Новости Москвы reports USD/RUB exchange rate rising, indicating broader economic pressure on RF that could affect its long-term sustainment capabilities. ASTRA reports human rights activist Grigory Sverdlin sentenced to 6 years in absentia for "fakes" about the RF Armed Forces, potentially signaling a crackdown on individuals highlighting logistics problems or military failings. TASS reports former Nizhny Novgorod head Oleg Sorokin ordered to pay over 1 billion rubles to the state for commercial activity, indicating internal anti-corruption efforts that could impact local resource allocation, but no direct military impact. ASTRA reports a UAV attack on Mariupol airport, which highlights potential for UAF to disrupt RF logistics in occupied territories. The large narcotics bust in Moscow Oblast, while internal security, could indicate resources being diverted to combat criminal activity, indirectly affecting broader state resource allocation. TASS reports Russia's 2025 grain harvest is almost 105 million tons, indicating a stable and robust agricultural sector, providing a base for long-term food security and potential for export revenues, indirectly supporting war sustainment. The UAF GUR confirmed deep strike on a pipeline in Saratov Oblast, Russia, implies continued stress on RF energy infrastructure and will necessitate localized repair and security resources. "Два майора" posts about a court sentencing a "terrorist accomplice" in Astrakhan. While an internal security matter, it indicates continued resource allocation to domestic law enforcement. The Belgorod oil depot fire will place additional strain on RF fuel logistics and require rapid response and repair resources. NEW: "Два майора" posts a message criticizing Z-blogger Roman Alekhin for his video, stating he "compromised the entire volunteer movement." This suggests that even volunteer-driven logistics face challenges related to transparency and public trust, and that misconduct can negatively impact sustainment efforts by eroding donor confidence. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF) posts a "COLLECTION FOR A PARATROOPER🫡" message, indicating ongoing, unit-level fundraising for RF military personnel, suggesting persistent resource needs not fully met by official channels. NEW: Colonelcassad posts a video of a "COLLECTION FOR THE 4th AUTO-COLUMN," showing military-style vehicles. This is a direct appeal for donations to support logistical needs for specific units, further corroborating reliance on volunteer efforts. INTELLIGENCE GAP: What is the scale and impact of volunteer-driven fundraising efforts (e.g., "Два майора", "Tsekh 77", "All for Victory") on overall RF military sustainment, and does this indicate systemic gaps in official logistics?

2.4. Command and control effectiveness (Confidence: HIGH)

RF continues to demonstrate centralized C2 for coordinating multi-domain operations. The speed and consistency of IO narratives, including the adaptation to new disinformation tactics (e.g., Storm Shadow attribution, Zaluzhny/Nord Stream, the latest video targeting Syrsky/Yermak, and new war crimes allegations against foreign fighters and the new Benjamin Reed interview alleging executions and chemical weapons), indicate a responsive and centrally controlled information apparatus. The activation of "UVB-76" implies a robust strategic C2 system. However, the unusual video of a disillusioned serviceman released on an official RF MOD channel (if authentic and not an IO tactic) could suggest internal morale challenges or a new, subtle IO tactic that could complicate C2 messaging. The unified response to UAF drone activity in Lipetsk and Tambov (air danger regime, airport closure) suggests coordinated air defense and security protocols within RF territory. The new temporary closure and rapid resumption of Sochi airport further reinforces the responsiveness of RF air traffic control and air defense C2 within RF territory to perceived threats. The contradictory narrative in Colonelcassad's Sumy FPV drone video (claiming RF strikes on RF assets) could indicate either an error in messaging/C2 or a deliberate obfuscation for IO purposes. The rapid reporting of the Sochi drone attack by the governor, followed by "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺", demonstrates a reactive but effective local C2 for incident reporting and damage assessment. The arrest of Sergei Derevyanko for treason highlights the continued effectiveness of internal security C2. Colonelcassad's new video compilation of FPV drone strikes, disseminated across various platforms, demonstrates effective C2 for tactical information sharing and propaganda distribution among milbloggers, reinforcing their role in RF's information ecosystem. RF MOD "Vostok" group's swift claim of destroying a UAF UAV control point, accompanied by drone video, indicates effective C2 for tactical operations and rapid information dissemination. The TASS reports on domestic social initiatives and legal actions indicate effective C2 over state media to project a narrative of functional governance. Peskov's comments on Putin's birthday are a clear example of centralized messaging around the RF head of state. TASS reports citing Andrey Marochko on UAF withdrawal from Hlushchenkove (Kharkiv Oblast) demonstrate effective C2 for rapid dissemination of tactical claims to the public. The coordinated domestic policy and cultural messaging through TASS and Golikova reinforce centralized C2 over state narrative. Colonelcassad's rapid distribution of "БУДЬТЕ ВНИМАТЕЛЬНЫ и ОСТОРОЖНЫ!" (BE CAREFUL and CAUTIOUS!) messages indicates effective C2 for localized psychological operations. The lifting of the "yellow level" UAV threat by Lipetsk Governor Artamonov indicates effective C2 over regional air defense response. RF MOD's rapid reporting of 31 Ukrainian UAVs shot down overnight and TASS's swift reporting of civilian casualties from alleged UAF strikes demonstrate a highly effective and centralized C2 for information dissemination and crisis response, both militarily and for IO purposes. TASS reporting destruction of a UAF robotic complex with video indicates C2 effectiveness for tactical claim dissemination. TASS reports regarding RF advances in the Kremensky forests and breakthrough near Chynyshyn, citing Marochko and Kimakovsky, indicate effective C2 for rapid dissemination of tactical claims from the frontline via state media. WarGonzo's daily frontline summary and maps indicate effective C2 within the milblogger network for information sharing and situational awareness. TASS, citing Golikova, discussing the St. Petersburg Forum and the 80th anniversary of Victory shows effective C2 over state media for strategic messaging and cultural diplomacy. TASS, citing Nikoronova, claiming Finnish politicians will be accountable for poor relations with Russia, illustrates effective C2 to project foreign policy narratives. The awarding of the Order of Courage to Chief of General Staff Gerasimov by Putin (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники) is a clear act of top-down C2 reinforcing loyalty and rewarding senior military leadership, projecting unity and stability. TASS, citing the RF MoD, providing video of the "Southern" group destroying a UAF UAV control point and mortars near Berestok, highlights effective C2 for tactical action and rapid propaganda dissemination. TASS, citing Kimakovsky, reporting fire control over UAF logistics near Krasny Liman, further demonstrates effective tactical C2 for drone operations and immediate public dissemination. The Russian Ministry of Finance including Domodedovo Airport in its 2025 sales plan (TASS) indicates effective C2 over state assets and financial planning. Colonelcassad's POW video is a centrally coordinated IO effort. Mash na Donbasse's video of Makeevka damage and casualties demonstrates effective C2 for rapid documentation and dissemination of RF narratives. Рыбарь's "Infection Garden of Europe" graphic is another example of coordinated IO. TASS reports on Lavrov's pool of journalists applying for US visas might be used to project a desire for international engagement on RF terms. Kotsnews video of supply receipt in LNR (Lt. Col. Belenkov) demonstrates effective C2 for managing volunteer logistical efforts. "Два майора" video showing injured RF soldiers being evacuated indicates continued C2 for combat and MEDEVAC operations. Colonelcassad reports on sentencing of Ukrainian saboteurs, demonstrating effective C2 for internal security and judicial processes. "Два майора" posts photos of Sochi mayor inspecting damage from a drone attack, indicating effective local C2 for incident response. The grim video of injured Russian soldiers in a trench from МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, despite its demoralizing content, is disseminated on a pro-RF channel, implying a degree of C2 over information flow, even if it's for specific internal messaging. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts video of RF MLRS operating on the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction, indicating effective C2 for coordinating heavy fire support. Mash na Donbasse reports damage to two schools and a kindergarten in Donetsk, showing rapid C2 for damage assessment and IO dissemination. Воин DV posts video showing RF 69th Separate Brigade capturing a UAF soldier, confirming effective tactical C2 for ground operations and prisoner handling. Народная милиция ДНР posts video showing RF special purpose units using FPV drones to strike UAF positions, equipment, and drones, demonstrating effective C2 for integrated drone operations. TASS, citing The New York Times, reports difficulties finding a new PM could lead to Macron's resignation, showing C2 for diplomatic IO. "Два майора" posts image claiming Ukraine's arms production is increasingly moved abroad, indicating effective C2 for IO. Басурин о главном and TASS post on "I am Russian" phrase and trademark, showing C2 for nationalistic IO. WarGonzo posts photo message on Donetsk liberation day, showing C2 for event-driven IO. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны post photo messages on Ukrainian refugees, indicating C2 for IO on humanitarian narratives. TASS reports on Nepal protests, indicating C2 for global news dissemination. TASS reports FAS identified a cartel in railway electrification, demonstrating C2 for domestic economic news. Новости Москвы reports USD/RUB exchange rate rising, indicating C2 for domestic financial news. TASS reports the Russian Security Council is preparing a new edition of Russia's Information Security Doctrine, indicating a formal, high-level C2 for strategic information policy. ASTRA reports Putin was likely in Sochi during drone attacks, reinforcing high-level C2 for leadership security. TASS reports on a human rights activist sentenced for "fakes" about Bucha, demonstrating continued effective C2 for internal information control. TASS reports on financial penalties for an individual convicted of an explosion in Stupino, demonstrating C2 for legal enforcement. Colonelcassad reports a narcotics bust in Moscow Oblast, indicating effective C2 for internal security. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА promotes a new Russian Orthodox war film, showcasing C2 for state-supported morale boosting efforts. Рыбарь posts on "Lost Americans on the Armenian border," indicating C2 for IO targeting US influence. "Два майора" reports the dismissal of the French Prime Minister, an RF IO effort to highlight Western political instability. The large narcotics bust in Moscow Oblast will be used to highlight internal security successes. RF's recruitment video (Военкор Котенок) aims to boost morale and commitment. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны amplifying Arestovych's skepticism regarding the Iskander strike aims to cause confusion within Ukraine and reassure Russian audiences about the strike's success. Военкор Котенок also reports on NATO ISR activity, demonstrating effective C2 for ISR and counter-ISR information dissemination. ТАСС, citing Kartapolov, is part of a coordinated C2 effort for strategic messaging. НгП раZVедка's counter-IO on Yarova demonstrates coordinated C2 for narrative control. TASS reports RF forces destroyed a pickup truck carrying British radios for UAF in Konstantinovka, implying effective C2 for tactical targeting of UAF logistics. "Военкор Котенок" posts a video claiming a "precise hit" on a UAF temporary deployment point in Kirovsk, suggesting effective C2 for tactical strike coordination. Воин DV reports the 36th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade used drones to destroy an enemy tank, indicating effective C2 for integrating drone operations into ground combat. TASS reports Peskov stating Putin's schedule was not affected by the Sochi drone attack, which is a clear C2 message from the Kremlin to project continuity of leadership and control. Alex Parker Returns' numerous photo messages appear to be part of a coordinated IO effort to disseminate fabricated or misleading information, indicating some form of C2 over their output. Басурин о главном's new program and Старше Эдды's economic-nationalist narrative further demonstrate effective C2 within the milblogger network and state media for consistent IO messaging, aiming to reinforce domestic support. TASS reports Lavrov's strong condemnation of Western attempts to remove Milorad Dodik from power in Republika Srpska. This demonstrates effective C2 for diplomatic messaging and a clear stance against Western influence in the Balkans. Colonelcassad posts video of the aftermath of an attack in Yarova, blaming UAF for a "provocation." This shows rapid C2 for counter-IO. Operativny ZSU posts video of Andrey Kartapolov making escalating statements against Finland. This indicates a coordinated C2 effort to deliver aggressive diplomatic messaging and escalate rhetoric against NATO members. ASTRA reports a Russian artist, Alexey Kiryanov, has been put on a wanted list for inciting hatred against "Putin's voters." This indicates effective internal C2 for suppressing dissent and controlling public narratives. "Два майора" posts photo message raising concerns about "Azerbaijani diaspora" influence in Udmurtia regional elections, indicating C2 over internal political messaging. ТАСС, citing Maria Zakharova, reports an ethnographer was released by Afghan authorities due to friendly relations with Moscow. This demonstrates RF's C2 over diplomatic messaging to project influence. The lifting of the ballistic missile threat by UAF Air Force indicates effective UAF C2 and air defense response protocols. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a photo of Putin integrated into a "MAX" interface. This reflects RF's centralized C2 for online presence and information dissemination. Оперативний ЗСУ reports, citing Reuters, that the RF government views demobilization as a greater risk than the return of "Afghans" in '89. This indicates internal RF C2 concerns regarding social stability. Операция Z (citing Russian Spring War Correspondents) reports 150,000 people subscribed to Putin's channel on Max in the first 24 hours. This highlights a coordinated IO effort and effective C2 over online presence. NEW: TASS posts videos of protestors capturing and burning the Nepalese parliament building, and later burning the house of former Prime Minister Nath Khanal, with his wife seriously injured. This demonstrates RF's C2 over state media to immediately leverage global events for IO purposes. NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts a video of "some kind Russian people" making an offer to Roman Alekhin, and later posts photo messages defending Alekhin. This suggests an internal RF C2 effort to manage the reputation of pro-war bloggers and address internal criticism, indicating a focus on maintaining credibility within the milblogger network. NEW: "Два майора" posts a message criticizing Roman Alekhin, stating he "compromised the entire volunteer movement." This indicates internal C2 within the milblogger community to enforce standards of conduct and maintain the integrity of the volunteer movement. NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a photo message recruitment advertisement, demonstrating effective C2 for military recruitment campaigns. NEW: Старше Эдды (RF) posts a video with #КультураДНР. This demonstrates C2 over cultural initiatives to support the war effort and project normalcy. NEW: Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны (RF) posts a video quoting Polish President Nawrocki. This indicates C2 over IO to selectively highlight statements that undermine Western unity or commitment to Ukraine. NEW: General SVR (RF) posts an update for subscribers and guests, indicating continued C2 within this opposition channel. NEW: НгП раZVедка (RF) posts a message on public conduct, likely a C2 message aimed at maintaining decorum within the pro-war information space.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian force posture and readiness (Confidence: HIGH)

UAF maintains a robust defensive posture across multiple axes, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis, actively repelling RF assaults and conducting localized counter-attacks (e.g., deoccupation of Zarichne). UAF air defense demonstrates high responsiveness and effectiveness, successfully intercepting a significant number of RF UAVs (112 out of 142 overnight, and recent successful interceptions over Zaporizhzhia and 3 drones over Dnipropetrovsk, now 60 of 84 drones) and claiming an Iskander-K shootdown. UAF continues to execute deep strikes into RF territory and occupied areas, demonstrating long-range strike capabilities, as evidenced by the temporary closure of Sochi airport and Lipetsk air danger regime, and the claimed combined drone/missile attack on Donetsk military objects, and Saratov Oblast oil pipeline detonation. GUR cyber specialists have reportedly accessed Russian fuel card servers, indicating an ongoing cyber offensive. UAF Special Operations Forces (SSO) are actively engaged in qualification courses, and drone units are being actively equipped and trained, demonstrating a focus on enhancing capabilities and adaptive technological integration. The restoration of automotive traffic on the Kremenchuk bridge improves immediate logistical flexibility. The sustained air alert in Sevastopol implies UAF readiness and capability to project threats into occupied Crimea. The confirmed UAF drone strike in Sochi demonstrates offensive readiness for deep strikes. Air alerts and reports of hostile UAVs on the Sumy/Chernihiv border, and KAB launches on Donetsk, indicate UAF forces remain at high alert and are actively monitoring and responding to air threats. The Air Force's immediate reporting of new enemy UAV groups in Chernihiv Oblast (north and northeast), kursing southwest, indicates high vigilance and readiness to respond to northern axis threats. The KAB launches on Sumy Oblast further underscore the persistent air threat that UAF forces in that region must contend with, requiring constant readiness. TASS's claim of UAF withdrawal from Hlushchenkove (Kharkiv Oblast) to a second line of defense, if accurate, indicates UAF maintains a capacity for tactical repositioning to preserve forces. The updated casualty report (950 RF personnel, 1 tank, 32 artillery systems lost in 24 hours) from UAF General Staff and RBK-Ukraine highlights continued UAF combat effectiveness and readiness to inflict significant losses on RF forces. The situation in Kryvyi Rih being "controlled" implies effective local defense and C2. General Staff of UAF publishes operational information as of 090500Z SEP 25, reflecting current readiness. UAF is reported by РБК-Україна (citing ISW) to be advancing on the Sumy direction, indicating offensive readiness. UAF Air Force reports hostile reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy and on the Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk border, with assets engaged for their shootdown, confirming active UAF air defense and reconnaissance readiness. Air Force of Ukraine issuing a ballistic missile threat from the northeast confirms high alert status and readiness to respond to immediate threats. 46th Separate Airmobile Podilsky Brigade DShV AFU (UAF source) posts photo message titled "INTENSIVE OF THE UNBOWED," suggesting ongoing training and combat readiness of UAF airborne assault units. The acquisition of new German "Skyranger" anti-drone systems from Rheinmetall (reported by ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ) indicates UAF is actively enhancing its air defense capabilities against modern drone threats, with delivery expected this year. DeepState also reports on Rheinmetall supplying anti-drone systems. UAF forces (specifically 425th Regiment "Skela" as reported by БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС) demonstrating the ability to clear and secure Zarichne and raise the flag confirms high combat readiness and morale for localized offensive operations. The coordinated national "Minute of Silence" and commemorative efforts (Zaporizhzhia OVA, KMVA, Office of the Prosecutor General, Оперативний ЗСУ) reflect strong internal cohesion and respect for fallen soldiers, boosting national unity. Оперативний ЗСУ's General Staff briefing for 08:00 (090500Z SEP) confirms UAF continues to repel multiple RF assaults across eight directions, indicating sustained defensive readiness and effective engagement with RF forces. Specifically, repelling 10 RF attacks on the Pokrovsk direction highlights continued high readiness in a critical sector. РБК-Україна reports expanded grounds for mobilization exemption, which could help stabilize critical civilian sectors and maintain essential services, indirectly supporting military readiness by ensuring societal functionality. UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posting "Доброго ранку, народе України!" (Good morning, people of Ukraine!) is a routine morale booster, projecting calm and defiance. UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" also posts a photo message critically mocking Putin's recent award to Gerasimov, stating "For courageously sending imbeciles to slaughter in a foreign country," indicating strong counter-IO and high morale in deriding RF leadership. РБК-Україна reports the National Guard "Rubizh" brigade is collecting funds for equipment and property restoration, suggesting ongoing efforts to maintain readiness despite combat losses. UAF Air Force reports engaging assets against hostile reconnaissance UAVs in northeastern Sumy, Kharkiv, southeastern Dnipropetropets, and Odesa oblasts, confirming active air defense readiness. Филолог в засаде (RF source) shows UAF soldiers in the Kherson direction receiving Starlink terminals, confirming continued UAF efforts to secure communication. STERNENKO (UAF) video claiming "Wings to Hell" drones on fiber optics hit a hidden truck, two artillery pieces, and an dugout in Sumy direction confirms UAF use of advanced drone technology for precision strikes. Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) reiterates the significance of the Cabinet of Ministers strike as a new stage of escalation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video claiming "good drones" destroyed an RF field ammunition depot overnight, indicating offensive drone capabilities. The Coordination Staff for Treatment of POWs meeting with families indicates ongoing efforts to support military personnel and their families. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС videos depict grim frontline conditions for soldiers in trenches, highlighting resilience despite hardships. "Підрозділ Shadow" drone video (reconnaissance/aftermath) suggests active UAF drone operations. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches on northern Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued vigilance and readiness to respond to tactical air threats. РБК-Україна reports drones detected in Kyiv Oblast, with UAF PVO active, confirming continuous air defense readiness in the capital region. Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 and КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) post videos of Zelenskyy's interview from a destroyed US enterprise, emphasizing the ongoing fight and the need for international support, projecting continued determination. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports Cabinet of Ministers changed mobilization exemption rules, which could have a mixed impact on morale, potentially easing concerns for some while highlighting ongoing mobilization needs. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on a case against Kharkiv SIZO employees, which could positively impact public trust in the justice system. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts video of a "Vampire" drone medical evacuation, demonstrating innovative UAF readiness to address combat casualties. Liveuamap Source provides detailed reports of UAF repelling RF assaults across multiple axes, confirming high readiness and active engagement. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts an info message on its area of responsibility for the morning of 09.09.2025, confirming ongoing operations. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts about a Zaporizhzhia paddler winning bronze medals, a civilian morale booster showing resilience. STERNENKO posts about fundraising for "Rusorez", indicating continued citizen support for military efforts. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video of a Ukrainian military unit using a drone for detection and engagement of two Russian soldiers in a bush area near Chasiv Yar. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of President Zelenskyy discussing buffer zones and the use of drones to counter RF artillery, reflecting UAF strategic adaptation and determination. Сили оборони Півдня України posts a video showcasing the UAF 40th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade conducting training exercises with 'Barracuda' RHIBs and integrated drones for amphibious assault and reconnaissance, indicating continued development of specialized capabilities. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС posts a video depicting the capture and transport of Russian soldiers, which boosts morale. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video showing Ukrainian police officers detaining an individual, which highlights ongoing mobilization enforcement and potential public friction. The Coordination Staff for Treatment of POWs announces a training course for military personnel and their children (including POWs, fallen heroes, and missing defenders) focusing on "Unix and Networks." The Coordination Staff for Treatment of POWs also held a meeting in Kharkiv with families of missing and captured servicemen, indicating a continuous need for support mechanisms for military families. "Два майора" posts video of 61st Brigade soldiers thanking supporters for camouflage netting, indicating ongoing UAF unit-level resourcefulness. РБК-Україна reports Prime Minister Shmyhal has arrived in London for the "Ramstein" meeting and has announced Ukraine's goals, demonstrating continued high-level diplomatic and military coordination. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the SBU has detained FSB agents who guided strike drones to Odesa and Kirovohrad regions, indicating effective UAF counter-intelligence capabilities and readiness to neutralize internal threats. The Prosecutor General's Office report on the aviation bomb strike in Yarova, detailing over 20 dead and dozens wounded, indicates UAF's commitment to documenting and prosecuting war crimes, boosting internal and international morale. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a public health announcement from the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration regarding pertussis, indicating continued governmental functionality and public health efforts amidst conflict. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on the arrest of a Transcarpathian Regional Council deputy for illegal timber sales, indicating ongoing internal efforts to combat corruption and maintain rule of law, which can affect public trust and ultimately military readiness. The Coordination Staff for Treatment of POWs held a meeting with representatives of "Serdtsa Odesy v Poloni" (Heart of Odesa in Captivity), a public organization supporting captured and missing personnel. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a photo message of UAF contract soldiers receiving their first state awards for service under the 18-24 program, indicating continued recruitment and recognition efforts. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video detailing evacuation efforts in frontline communities of Zaporizhzhia, demonstrating continued commitment to civilian protection and organizational readiness. * Legal Action: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a Simferopol "war correspondent" was sentenced to 12 years imprisonment for working with occupiers, demonstrating UAF's continued legal and counter-IO efforts against collaborators.

INTELLIGENCE GAP: What are the current readiness levels of UAF units defending against new RF drone threats in Chernihivskyi district, Chernihiv Oblast, and Konotop district, Sumy Oblast, and Vyshhorod district, Kyiv Oblast?

3.2. Recent tactical successes or setbacks (Confidence: HIGH)

• Successes:
  • Air Defense Effectiveness: UAF Air Force reports successfully shooting down/suppressing 112 out of 142 enemy UAVs overnight. UAF successfully repelled an air attack in Izmailskyi district, Odesa Oblast. The Presidential Brigade of UAF claims to have successfully shot down an Iskander-K cruise missile. Recent reports from "Николаевский Ванёк" confirm successful UAF interception of RF UAVs over Zaporizhzhia, and the lifting of the air alert there. Air alert in Sevastopol implies UAF activity in occupied territories. UAF PVO shot down 3 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight, demonstrating continued localized air defense success. UAF Air Force reports engagement of assets against hostile reconnaissance UAVs in Sumy and Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk border regions, indicating successful detection and response. UAF Air Force and Оперативний ЗСУ report 60 of 84 RF UAVs shot down/suppressed overnight, confirming continued high interception rates against a reduced (but still significant) RF drone attack. The official "Отбій" (all-clear) for the ballistic missile threat signifies successful management or resolution of an immediate high-speed aerial threat. Acquisition of new German "Skyranger" anti-drone systems is a future tactical success, improving capabilities against evolving drone threats. DeepState also reports on Rheinmetall supplying anti-drone systems. UAF Air Force reports engaging assets against hostile reconnaissance UAVs in northeastern Sumy, Kharkiv, southeastern Dnipropetropets, and Odesa oblasts, confirming continued air defense effectiveness against ISR assets. UAF Air Force reports drone threat in Vyshhorod district, Kyiv, with assets engaged, confirming active air defense response. РБК-Україна reports drones detected in Kyiv Oblast, with UAF PVO active, confirming ongoing air defense success. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video showing UAF successfully shooting down an Iskander-K cruise missile with a ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft gun, directly demonstrating tactical success against a high-value RF missile. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts video claiming GUR special forces successfully struck and destroyed two expensive RF air defense radar systems ('Podlet' and 'Nebo') in Crimea, which is a significant tactical success against RF air defense. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports "all clear" for the air alert, indicating successful resolution of a threat. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for enemy strike UAVs in Chernihiv, demonstrating continued UAF vigilance and active air defense posture. NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Germany will provide Ukraine with new air defense systems for protection against drones, indicating a diplomatic and future tactical success in strengthening UAF air defenses. NEW: STERNENKO posts video showing UAF drones engaging 4 Russian kamikaze drones in Donetsk Oblast, indicating successful counter-drone operations.
  • Localized Ground Gains: The 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skela" deoccupied Zarichne, Donetsk Oblast. Syrsky reports UAF regained 58 sq. km of territory in August. UAF drone pilots halted another Russian mechanized assault on the Pokrovsk axis. РБК-Україна (citing ISW) reports UAF advances on the Sumy direction. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС corroborates the 425th Regiment "Skela" clearing Zarichne and installing the Ukrainian flag, reinforcing UAF tactical success. Оперативний ЗСУ's General Staff briefing confirms UAF successfully repelled 10 RF attacks on the Pokrovsk direction and numerous assaults across other axes, indicating sustained defensive successes. Сили оборони Півдня України posts photos and video demonstrating continued strikes on enemy locations, firing positions, and rear areas in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Kamian'ske village), including destruction of vehicles and infantry, confirming active ground engagement and successful targeting. Liveuamap Source reports UAF repelled 11 Russian army assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, demonstrating significant defensive tactical successes. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video showing a Ukrainian military unit successfully engaging two Russian soldiers with a drone, indicating a localized tactical success. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС posts a video depicting the capture and transport of Russian soldiers from the Dobropillia direction. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the SBU has detained FSB agents who guided strike drones to Odesa and Kirovohrad regions, indicating successful UAF counter-intelligence operations neutralizing internal threats.
  • Deep Strikes and Interdiction: UAF continues successful deep strikes into RF territory (e.g., NPS "Vtorovo") and occupied Crimea, as evidenced by the temporary closure of Sochi airport and the air danger regime in Lipetsk. GUR cyber specialists reportedly accessed Russian fuel card servers. UAF conducted a successful drone strike in Sochi, RF, resulting in a reported civilian fatality. This is a significant deep strike by UAF. "Оперативний ЗСУ" claims UAF launched a combined drone and cruise missile attack on Russian military objects in occupied Donetsk last night, indicating effective targeting and strike capabilities. Operativny ZSU also reports satellite imagery confirming UAF's "Madyar" unit struck at least two fuel tanks at NPS "Vtorovo" in Vladimir Oblast. ASTRA reports UAF unmanned systems units struck NPS "Vtorovo" in Vladimir Oblast again, confirming sustained UAF deep strike efforts on RF logistics. STERNENKO (UAF) video claims "Wings to Hell" drones on fiber optics hit a hidden truck, two artillery pieces, and an dugout in Sumy direction, indicating precision deep strike capability. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video claiming "good drones" destroyed an RF field ammunition depot overnight. РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report UAF drone strikes on Penza, RF, damaging two main gas pipelines and two regional ones, a significant deep strike against RF energy infrastructure. ASTRA reports a UAV attack on Mariupol airport, resulting in RF casualties and equipment loss, confirming UAF's continued ability to strike deep into occupied territory. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posts photos related to a strike in Yenakievo, implying successful targeting. UAF GUR sources confirm another major deep strike, with a pipeline in Saratov Oblast, Russia, being detonated. РБК-Україна reports a fire at an oil depot in Belgorod Oblast after a drone attack, indicating a successful UAF deep strike.
  • Counter-Intelligence & Internal Security: SBU has revealed new details about an FSB agent network targeting Ukraine and effectively countered an organized criminal group. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a Simferopol "war correspondent" was sentenced to 12 years imprisonment for working with occupiers.
  • Iskander Analysis: New details on the Iskander missile's foreign components provide valuable intelligence for Western partners on sanctions enforcement and RF procurement networks.
  • Inflicting RF Losses: UAF General Staff and RBK-Ukraine report 950 RF personnel, 1 tank, and 32 artillery systems were lost in the last 24 hours, indicating continued effectiveness in attriting RF forces. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 posts similar RF loss figures. ASTRA reports one RF serviceman killed and one wounded in the Mariupol airport attack, confirming RF personnel losses. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts drone footage showing identification of RF tanks, BMPs, generators, and a communication tower in the "buffer zone" near Vovchansk (Rubtsovsk direction, likely Chasiv Yar area), followed by a strike on an RF asset (BMP-3), confirming RF equipment losses.
  • Medical Evacuation Innovation: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts video of a "Vampire" drone successfully evacuating a wounded soldier, demonstrating innovative and life-saving tactical success.
• Setbacks:
  • Persistent RF Air Strikes: Despite high interception rates, RF's overwhelming long-range strike capability continues to inflict significant damage on critical energy, industrial, and civilian infrastructure. The confirmed Iskander-K strike on the Cabinet of Ministers demonstrates RF's ability to precisely target high-value national C2 nodes. The launch of Tu-95MS strategic bombers signals a potential for upcoming large-scale missile strikes. Recent drone strikes on Zaporizhzhia add to the cumulative damage, including a residential building and civilian injury. KAB launches on Sumy Oblast confirm continued air-to-ground strikes causing damage. The Iskander-M strike on an industrial facility in Druzhkivka is a confirmed RF strike. The immediate ballistic missile threat from the northeast is an ongoing severe air threat. UAF Air Force reports "high-speed targets" continuing towards Sumy Oblast, indicating persistent aerial threats. Операция Z and Russian Spring War Correspondents' photo messages of alleged nighttime strikes on Zaporizhzhia indicate continued RF capability to inflict damage on urban areas. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF forces destroyed "Lyut" Brigade warehouses in Kramatorsk, representing a setback for UAF military infrastructure. Mash na Donbasse's video claims four apartments destroyed in Makeevka due to shelling, reinforcing persistent RF capability to inflict civilian damage. UAF Air Force reports Shahed launches from multiple locations, indicating continued RF drone threats. TASS posts video claiming UAF abandoned wounded comrades after an airstrike in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (RF claim), indicating a successful RF airstrike. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches on northern Kharkiv Oblast, confirming continued damage inflicted by RF tactical aviation. Mash на Donbasse reports two schools and a kindergarten damaged due to yesterday's shelling in Donetsk, indicating continued damage to civilian infrastructure. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts video showing destroyed rural residential buildings in an area consistent with shelling, indicating continued damage to civilian areas. Liveuamap Source reports Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Prymorske of Zaporizhzhia region, Mykolayivka of Kherson region, confirming continued strikes and localized setbacks. Colonelcassad publishes a "Chronicle of strikes" confirming sustained RF air/missile strike activity and damage. RF's alleged aviation bomb strike on Yarova, Donetsk Oblast, resulting in 20+ civilian deaths, represents a severe setback due to mass civilian casualties, further reported by РБК-Україна. НгП раZVедка claims Ukraine is trying to pass off its crime in Yarova as a FAB strike. The ballistic missile threat for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicates persistent RF missile strikes. Odesa schools receiving Shahed warnings indicate continued drone threats. "Военкор Котенок" posts video claiming a "precise hit" on a UAF temporary deployment point (PVD) in Kirovsk, which, if confirmed, represents a tactical setback for UAF in maintaining secure forward positions. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, citing RF MOD, claims RF PVO forces shot down 5 cruise missiles, 5 HIMARS rockets, and 230 UAF UAVs in the last 24 hours, which if accurate, represents a significant setback for UAF strike capabilities. NEW: Mash na Donbasse reports power outages in Donetsk, Makeevka, and Ilovaisk, indicating persistent RF capability to disrupt civilian infrastructure. NEW: The MVA (Military-Civilian Administration) reports the number of victims of the aviation strike on Yarova has risen to 23 killed and 18 wounded, a severe civilian setback. NEW: Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition (RF) drone footage showing strikes on alleged UAF UAV control points in residential areas highlights the ongoing threat to UAF C2 infrastructure and the risk of collateral damage in civilian zones.
  • Civilian Casualties: RF strikes resulted in 12 fatalities and 27 injured (including a child) in Kupiansk, Kozacha Lopan, and Khotimlya between 1-7 SEP, and 3 confirmed fatalities in Kyiv. Civilian casualties also reported in Dobropillia, Nikopol, and occupied Donetsk/Makeevka (as reported by RF). A 66-year-old woman was injured in Zaporizhzhia from a recent RF strike. Children were injured by an explosive device in Kharkiv Oblast. The UAF drone strike in Sochi resulted in a civilian fatality from falling debris, a tactical setback in terms of potential negative international perception and RF counter-IO. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports one woman killed and one injured in Primorske and Zaporizhzhia, highlighting continued civilian impact. RF claims of 90 injured and 10 killed RF civilians from UAF strikes, while likely exaggerated, represent a potential IO setback for UAF. Kotsnews' video from Makeevka with claims of a civilian fatality and injuries. WarGonzo reports two fatalities in DPR from "massive shelling," confirming continued civilian casualties in occupied territories from UAF actions (or alleged actions). Oleg Synehubov reports 9 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit, confirming ongoing civilian impact. Mash na Donbasse's video shows graphic evidence of damage and fatalities in Makeevka, further underscores the civilian toll. РБК-Україна reports RF forces attacked rescue workers and police in Sumy Oblast, injuring personnel, a setback in critical services. "Два майора" posts photos of Sochi mayor inspecting damage, including a damaged cemetery, highlighting civilian damage from UAF drone strikes, which is an IO setback. A domestic crime in Kyiv saw a military woman undergoing treatment robbed, a localized setback to morale and security. Mash на Donbasse reports two schools and a kindergarten damaged due to yesterday's shelling in Donetsk, indicating continued civilian impact and a potential IO setback for UAF. РБК-Україна reports over 10,000 people without power in Kyiv Oblast, which could be a consequence of strikes or weather, impacting civilian life. RF's alleged aviation bomb strike on Yarova, with over 20 civilian deaths, is a catastrophic civilian setback, and РБК-Україна further reports an "Ukrposhta" manager was among the wounded. The Prosecutor General's Office report on the aviation bomb strike in Yarova, detailing over 20 dead and dozens wounded, represents a severe setback due to mass civilian casualties. Oleg Synehubov, Head of Kharkiv OVA, reports one man was injured as a result of enemy shelling in Malodanylivska hromada. NEW: STERNENKO reports the number of victims of the aviation strike on Yarova has risen to 23 killed and 18 wounded, an even greater civilian setback. NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF) posts a video titled "Only bones left," depicting extremely emaciated individuals, possibly POWs or victims of neglect. While details are scarce, if these are UAF personnel, it represents a severe human rights setback and potential war crime.
  • Localized RF Ground Advances: RF has continued localized ground advances on the Pokrovsk axis, creating intense combat. TASS reports RF forces have broken through Ukrainian defenses near Chynyshyn, southeast of Pokrovsk, which is a significant tactical setback if confirmed. TASS claims of forcing UAF withdrawal from Hlushchenkove (Kharkiv Oblast) and establishing a second line of defense represent a localized tactical setback for UAF, if confirmed. TASS reports RF MOD claims destruction of a UAF robotic complex near Kleban-Byk lake. TASS reports RF advances in the Kremensky forests, LPR, taking control of approximately 3 km of administrative border. This is a localized territorial setback for UAF. Rybar's video confirms RF advances and capture of Novoselivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. TASS reports RF "practically destroyed" Latin American mercenaries in Dnipropetrovsk, which, if true, represents a significant loss of experienced personnel for UAF. TASS, citing RF MoD, reports destruction of a UAF UAV control point and mortars near Berestok, representing a setback for UAF tactical C2 and fire support. Poddubny (RF source) video claims destruction of a UAF tank near Kovsharivka (Kupyansk direction) by a small drone, indicating a setback for UAF armor. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source) claims "Yunakivka is ours!" in Sumy Oblast, indicating a potential territorial setback if confirmed. Воин DV posts video showing RF 69th Separate Brigade capturing a UAF soldier, indicating a localized personnel setback for UAF. Basurin о главном reports RF forces confidently advancing on the Siverske direction, which implies localized setbacks for UAF. TASS reports RF forces destroyed a pickup truck carrying British radios for UAF in Konstantinovka, representing a setback for UAF logistical support. "Военкор Котенок" posts video claiming a "precise hit" on a UAF temporary deployment point (PVD) in Kirovsk, which, if confirmed, represents a tactical setback. Воин DV reports the 36th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade used drones to destroy an AFU tank, indicating a tactical setback for UAF armor. Colonelcassad claims "Yunakivka is ours!" (Sumy Oblast), reinforcing a potential territorial setback. NEW: "Сливочный каприз" (RF) photo messages regarding Krasnoarmeysk - Muravka implies ongoing tactical pressure and potential setbacks in the Pokrovsk direction. NEW: Kadyrov_95 (RF) drone footage from the Kharkiv direction, showing strikes on UAF positions, suggests localized tactical setbacks for UAF in maintaining fortified positions.
  • Logistical Challenges: Severe flooding in Kyiv adds a layer of immediate hardship and logistical challenges.
  • Personnel Drain/Internal Challenges: The death of journalist Oleksandr Takhtai (investigating fortification corruption) and reports of protests against TCCs highlight internal challenges related to accountability and mobilization. Financial Times reports Ukraine faces acute shortage of air defense systems due to slowed US supplies, indicating a future critical resource constraint. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Ukraine may face a deficit of air defense systems, highlighting a critical future resource constraint. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on a case against Kharkiv SIZO employees, highlighting internal legal and personnel challenges. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС posts a video of a soldier expressing a desire to go home and challenges with troop recovery, indicating morale and personnel challenges due to sustained combat. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video showing Ukrainian police officers detaining an individual, which highlights ongoing mobilization enforcement and potential public friction, impacting morale. The video from МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, showing an injured Russian soldier in unsanitary conditions, suggests significant medical and morale challenges for RF forces, despite overall resilient logistics. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video of a UAF soldier expressing hardship and losses, indicating immediate morale and personnel challenges. The UAF Prosecutor General's Office reports on the arrest of a Transcarpathian Regional Council deputy for illegal timber sales, indicating continued internal corruption issues which can indirectly affect military readiness and public trust.
  • IO Setback (US Disinformation Countermeasures): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) reports, citing FT, that the US is ceasing cooperation with Europe on countering disinformation from RF, China, and Iran. This, if true, would be a setback for UAF's international information environment efforts.
  • GPS Interference: STERNENKO reports nearly 123,000 airline flights affected by Russian GPS interference in the Baltic region, which can impede navigation and potentially impact UAF drone operations in the area.

3.3. Resource requirements and constraints (Confidence: HIGH)

• Air Defense Systems & Munitions: (CRITICAL, PERSISTING) The immense volume of RF drone and missile attacks places extreme strain on UAF air defense systems and munition stockpiles. This remains the paramount resource requirement, particularly with the new Tu-95MS strategic bomber launch. Continued RF KAB launches on Donetsk and Sumy, and aviation strike threats in Dnipropetrovsk emphasize the ongoing need for robust air defense and counter-aviation capabilities. The confirmed foreign components in the Iskander-K underscore the challenge of RF's advanced munitions and the need for sophisticated, resilient air defense. The continued high number of RF UAVs (now 84, 50 Shaheds) shot down over RF territory, combined with UAF intercepts over Dnipropetrovsk, confirms the ongoing, critical need for air defense munitions and platforms. The ballistic missile threat from the northeast necessitates an immediate and high expenditure of air defense resources. The acquisition of "Skyranger" anti-drone systems is a positive development but highlights the current gap and ongoing need for comprehensive air defense solutions. Financial Times' report on Ukraine's acute shortage of air defense systems due to slowed US supplies indicates a critical and immediate resource constraint that demands urgent attention. The persistent RF UAV reconnaissance in northeastern Sumy, Kharkiv, southeastern Dnipropetropets, and Odesa, and the threat of strike UAVs in Chernihivskyi district, Chernihiv, Konotop district, Sumy, and Vyshhorod district, Kyiv, indicate continued and immediate need for air defense resources in these areas. New Shahed launches from 4 locations will further strain air defense. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Ukraine may face a deficit of air defense systems due to slowed US supplies, solidifying this as a critical and immediate resource constraint. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches on northern Kharkiv Oblast and drones in Kyiv Oblast, with PVO active, further emphasizing the constant demand for air defense resources. The alleged destruction of a UAF S-300 system by RF further exacerbates this critical resource constraint. The ballistic missile threat for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Shahed threat to Odesa schools reinforce the urgent and immediate need for air defense resources. The "Ramstein" meeting (РБК-Україна) presents a critical opportunity to address these urgent requirements. The reported RF MOD claim of shooting down 230 UAF UAVs, 5 cruise missiles, and 5 HIMARS rockets in 24 hours (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) indicates the scale of UAF offensive air activity and the immense, ongoing air defense requirements for both sides. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for enemy strike UAVs in Chernihiv, underscoring immediate air defense requirements in the region. NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Germany will provide Ukraine with new air defense systems for protection against drones, which addresses a critical resource gap, but highlights the ongoing need for such systems.
• Counter-Drone Capabilities: (HIGH, PERSISTING) The continued effectiveness of RF FPV and strike UAVs necessitates further investment in counter-drone technologies (jammers, dedicated interceptor drones, EW systems) and new counter-USV technologies, especially considering the reported RF fiber-optic USV and the new "Matryoshka" foldable drone. The sustained RF drone activity on the Sumy/Chernihiv border highlights the need for dedicated counter-UAV measures in northern regions. The fresh wave of RF UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast reiterates the immediate and ongoing need for counter-drone assets and strategies in the north. The claimed destruction of a UAF UAV control point by RF MOD "Vostok" group and destruction of a robotic complex by RF MOD also emphasizes the need for hardened and mobile UAF drone infrastructure and advanced counter-robotics. Persistent RF reconnaissance UAVs in northeastern Sumy, Kharkiv, southeastern Dnipropetropets, and Odesa border regions require continued investment in counter-ISR capabilities. The "Skyranger" acquisition, while promising, underscores the urgent requirement for more such systems to counter RF's prolific drone usage. The persistent RF UAV reconnaissance in northeastern Sumy, Kharkiv, southeastern Dnipropetropets, and Odesa, and the threat of strike UAVs in Chernihivskyi district, Chernihiv, Konotop district, Sumy, and Vyshhorod district, Kyiv, indicate continued and immediate need for counter-drone resources. STERNENKO's video of UAF "Wings to Hell" drones on fiber optics demonstrates an advanced capability but also implies continued investment in such systems is required. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video claiming UAF drones destroyed an RF ammo depot underscores the need for continued drone acquisition. Народная милиция ДНР posts video showing RF special purpose units using FPV drones to strike UAF drones (including "Baba Yaga"), demonstrating RF's dedicated counter-drone capabilities that UAF must also be able to counter. Colonelcassad posts images of "Darwin" Russian anti-drone net kits, highlighting RF's investment in passive anti-drone measures that UAF drones will need to overcome. STERNENKO posts about fundraising for "Rusorez", indicating continued civilian support for drone acquisition. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video showing a Ukrainian military unit using a drone for detection and engagement of two Russian soldiers near Chasiv Yar, highlighting the critical role of drones in ISR. President Zelenskyy's comments on drones and countering artillery reinforce the urgent need for more drone resources. The Shahed threat to Odesa schools confirms the ongoing need for counter-drone capabilities in urban areas. The SBU's detention of FSB agents guiding strike drones (Оперативний ЗСУ) highlights the need for continued counter-intelligence and EW capabilities to identify and neutralize drone threats from within Ukraine. STERNENKO's video showing UAF drones engaging 4 Russian kamikaze drones in Donetsk Oblast highlights the immediate and critical need for UAF counter-drone assets and skilled operators. NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF) drone footage of strikes on alleged UAF UAV control points underscores the ongoing need for UAF to harden and defend its drone infrastructure from RF counter-drone operations.
• Engineering & Repair Equipment: (HIGH, PERSISTING) Persistent RF targeting of critical infrastructure (including Penza gas pipelines, Saratov Oblast oil pipeline, Belgorod Oblast oil depot, and NEW: power outages in Donetsk, Makeevka, and Ilovaisk) creates an ongoing demand for specialized heavy engineering equipment and skilled personnel for rapid repair and restoration of electricity and industrial capacity. РБК-Україна reports over 10,000 people without power in Kyiv Oblast, highlighting the need for repair capabilities. The Zaporizhzhia OVA reports on the aftermath of a night attack, emphasizing the need for liquidation of consequences and repair. The alleged aviation bomb strike in Yarova, causing severe destruction, will require extensive engineering and repair resources. NEW: The increased number of victims in Yarova (23 killed, 18 wounded) will strain medical and repair resources.
• Medical & Psychological Support: (HIGH, PERSISTING) Sustained civilian casualties and military losses necessitate continuous and robust medical supplies, field hospitals, and psychological support services for both combatants and civilians. Reports of civilian casualties in Zaporizhzhia and from RF sources underscore this persistent need. Oleg Synehubov's report of 9 settlements hit in Kharkiv Oblast confirms ongoing need for medical and psychological support in affected areas. WarGonzo reporting two fatalities in DPR also emphasizes this need, regardless of attribution. Mash na Donbasse's video showing graphic damage and fatalities in Makeevka further underscores the immediate and critical need for medical and psychological support. РБК-Україна reports RF forces attacked rescue workers and police in Sumy Oblast, injuring personnel, highlighting the need for medical support for first responders. "Два майора" video showing injured RF soldiers being evacuated also highlights the persistent need for combat medical support. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС videos depicting grim frontline conditions and wounded soldiers underscore the continuous need for medical and psychological support for UAF forces. The grim video of injured Russian soldiers in a trench from МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, discussing their lack of water and severity of infection, indicates a critical and ongoing need for basic medical supplies and hygienic conditions on the frontline. Mash на Donbasse reports two schools and a kindergarten damaged due to yesterday's shelling in Donetsk, adding to the ongoing need for psychological support for children and affected communities. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts video of a "Vampire" drone medical evacuation, highlighting the critical need for and innovation in casualty recovery. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС posts a video of a soldier speaking about challenges in collecting the wounded and serious injuries, underscoring the persistent and urgent need for medical support and evacuation. RF's alleged aviation bomb strike on Yarova, with over 20 civilian deaths, will create an immense, immediate demand for medical and psychological support, and РБК-Україна's report of an "Ukrposhta" manager wounded highlights the vulnerability of essential civilian service providers. Оперативний ЗСУ's video of a UAF soldier discussing casualties and unreturned reconnaissance groups further highlights the critical and ongoing need for medical support, casualty evacuation, and psychological care. Oleg Synehubov, Head of Kharkiv OVA, reports one man injured in Malodanylivska hromada shelling, reinforcing continued need for medical support. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a public health announcement from the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration regarding pertussis, indicating a need for continued public health resources. NEW: The increased number of victims in Yarova (23 killed, 18 wounded) will place immense and immediate strain on local medical and psychological support services. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video on evacuation efforts in frontline communities, implicitly highlighting the need for medical and humanitarian support for evacuees. NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF) video depicting extremely emaciated individuals, possibly POWs, highlights the critical and ongoing need for humanitarian and medical aid for all victims of the conflict.
• Ground Force Mobilization & Equipment: (MEDIUM, PERSISTING) The ongoing heavy casualties and localized ground engagements require sustained personnel and equipment replenishment. This is further exacerbated by RF claims of UAF withdrawal to a second line of defense and the reported RF breakthrough near Chynyshyn, implying attrition and the need for fresh personnel and equipment for forward deployment. RF advances in Kremensky forests and Zaporizhzhia also contribute to the need for UAF personnel and equipment to hold or regain ground. TASS's claim of "practically destroying" Latin American mercenaries highlights a need for UAF to rapidly replace or reinforce experienced combat personnel. РБК-Україна's report on expanded grounds for mobilization exemption highlights a proactive measure to manage personnel resources, likely indicating an underlying constraint on general mobilization while attempting to preserve essential skilled labor. The "Rubizh" brigade's fundraising efforts (РБК-Україна) suggest ongoing resource requirements at the unit level for equipment and property restoration, which points to a persistent demand despite external aid. The claimed destruction of a UAF tank near Kovsharivka (Kupyansk) and "Lyut" Brigade warehouses in Kramatorsk indicate continued equipment losses and the need for replenishment. The Coordination Staff for Treatment of POWs meeting with families indicates ongoing personnel management needs. The Coordination Staff for Treatment of POWs also held a meeting in Kharkiv with families of missing and captured servicemen, indicating a continuous need for support mechanisms for military families. Воин DV posts video showing RF 69th Separate Brigade capturing a UAF soldier, indicating a persistent need for personnel replacement and training on prisoner of war protocols. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС posts a video of a soldier expressing strong desire to go home, indicating potential morale strain from prolonged combat. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video showing Ukrainian police officers detaining an individual, which highlights ongoing mobilization enforcement activities, which is a personnel management task. RF's ongoing recruitment efforts (Военкор Котенок) indicate a persistent demand for military personnel which UAF must also contend with. The Coordination Staff for Treatment of POWs announcing a training course for military personnel and their children indicates a long-term resource requirement for personnel development and support. "Два майора" posts video of 61st Brigade soldiers thanking supporters for camouflage netting, indicating ongoing unit-level resource acquisition for basic equipment. Оперативний ЗСУ's video of a UAF soldier discussing casualties and unreturned reconnaissance groups highlights an immediate and critical need for personnel replacement, equipment, and improved casualty recovery. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a photo message of UAF contract soldiers receiving their first state awards for service under the 18-24 program, indicating a continued need for recruitment and retention incentives. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video on evacuation efforts in frontline communities, implicitly highlighting the need to manage population displacement and its impact on available personnel.
• Long-Range Strike Capabilities: (MEDIUM, PERSISTING) Continued supply of precision long-range munitions is crucial for interdicting deeper RF logistics and C2 nodes effectively. The successful UAF drone strike in Sochi and the claimed combined drone/missile attack on Donetsk military objects underscore the value of such capabilities for projecting force and creating strategic dilemmas for RF. The confirmed strike on two fuel tanks at NPS "Vtorovo" further highlights this need. The repeated strike on NPS "Vtorovo" (ASTRA) reinforces the effectiveness and continued necessity of UAF long-range strike capabilities against RF logistics. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video claiming UAF drones destroyed an RF field ammunition depot highlights the effectiveness and continued need for such capabilities. РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ report UAF drone strikes on Penza, RF, damaging gas pipelines, demonstrating continued successful long-range strike capability, and underscoring the need for sustained supply of such munitions and platforms. ASTRA reports a UAV attack on Mariupol airport, confirming the continued importance of UAF deep strike capabilities. UAF GUR's successful strike on RF radar systems in Crimea further highlights the effectiveness and need for specialized long-range strike assets. UAF GUR sources confirming another major deep strike, with a pipeline in Saratov Oblast, Russia, being detonated, reinforces the critical need for continued long-range strike capabilities. The drone attack on the Belgorod oil depot further emphasizes the critical need for continued long-range strike capabilities against RF logistics.
• ISR Assets: (HIGH, PERSISTING) The dynamic battlefield and the need to track RF advances and target selection require robust and persistent ISR capabilities, including advanced drones, SIGINT, and HUMINT, particularly for strategic bomber activity, new RF drone tactics (e.g., destroying UAF armor, Naval Infantry movements near Sumy), and monitoring the development and deployment of new RF maritime drones and tactical drones like "Matryoshka". The new RF advances near Chynyshyn, in Kremensky forests, and in Zaporizhzhia, coupled with persistent RF reconnaissance UAVs, underscore the critical and immediate need for enhanced ISR to accurately assess the rapidly changing frontline. Poddubny's claim of RF drones dominating the Izium-Barvinkove route highlights the need for enhanced UAF ISR to detect and counter such interdiction efforts. The persistent RF UAV reconnaissance in northeastern Sumy, Kharkiv, southeastern Dnipropetropets, and Odesa oblasts, indicating a continued, high-priority requirement for counter-ISR and enhanced UAF ISR capabilities. The successful deployment of Starlink terminals to UAF soldiers in Kherson (RF source) highlights the importance of resilient communication systems as a critical resource. "Підрозділ Shadow" drone video indicates ongoing UAF reconnaissance. Оперативний ЗСU posts a video showing a Ukrainian military unit using a drone for detection and engagement of two Russian soldiers near Chasiv Yar, highlighting the critical role of drones in ISR. Сили оборони Півдня України posts a video showcasing the UAF 40th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade's training with Barracuda RHIBs and drones, emphasizing the role of drones in reconnaissance for specialized operations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts drone footage showing identification of RF tanks, BMPs, generators, and a communication tower in the "buffer zone" near Vovchansk, confirming the need for persistent ISR. The SBU's detention of FSB agents guiding strike drones (Оперативний ЗСУ) highlights the critical need for continued human intelligence and SIGINT capabilities to neutralize internal threats. Оперативний ЗСУ's video of a UAF soldier discussing unreturned reconnaissance groups highlights a critical and immediate need for enhanced reconnaissance capabilities and methods to ensure personnel safety. NEW: Kadyrov_95 (RF) drone footage from the Kharkiv direction, showing reconnaissance, reinforces the ongoing need for UAF to maintain and enhance its own ISR capabilities.
• GPS Resilience: (HIGH, PERSISTING) STERNENKO's report on widespread Russian GPS interference in the Baltic region highlights a critical need for UAF to develop and implement GPS-independent navigation and targeting systems, especially for drone operations, to ensure operational continuity in contested EW environments.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

4.1. Propaganda and disinformation campaigns (Confidence: HIGH)

• RF Propaganda (Aggressive and Multi-Layered): RF continues aggressive dehumanization and war crimes accusations against UAF (e.g., alleged drone strikes on Donetsk civilian targets, attributing damage to Storm Shadow and providing alleged debris, Zakharova's claims). Colonelcassad and TASS are heavily amplifying claims by Benjamin Reed, a former American mercenary, alleging war crimes by "Chosen Company" (summary executions of POWs, use of chemical weapons). This is a significant escalation to discredit foreign fighters and UAF-aligned forces, with a specific focus on "chemical weapons" allegations which are highly inflammatory. They actively project strength (Su-35S delivery, ground advances, successful strikes, destruction of UAF robotic complex, claims of destroying UAF S-300 systems) and sow discord within the West (leveraging Trump's statements, Medvedev's rhetoric against Finland and the EU, claims of US-Europe disinformation break, criticism of Germany at UN GA). Domestic IO focuses on unity and normalcy (economic reports, infrastructure, cultural events – e.g., St. Petersburg forum, pension increases, Peskov's comments on Putin, Margarita Simonyan's personal news, "Best Family Employer" contest proposal, reporting on internal crime figures for Tuva, General Kirillov's alleged killer, local police heroism in Khabarovsk, recruitment videos). Psychological operations include propagating fear of winter outages and promoting narratives of UAF desertion. RF is attempting to engage in US domestic political disinformation (Trump/Epstein note, Boris Johnson corruption claims). Colonelcassad's latest video attempting to discredit Syrsky and Yermak, implying corruption and frustration with Western aid, is a new, targeted IO effort to undermine Ukrainian leadership and Western support. "Операция Z" is amplifying anti-EU sentiment via Vučić's statements. "Старше Эдды" is pushing the narrative that Western proposals for an "air shield" are a psychological tactic to erode RF resolve. TASS amplifies Marjorie Taylor Greene's proposal to cut US aid to Ukraine, targeting Western political support. Rybar's new "LATINAR" channel indicates an expansion of RF's global IO, potentially seeking to influence Latin American narratives against the West. TASS features RF Vice-Premier Golikova claiming attempts to "cancel Russian culture" are "fading," a persistent cultural IO narrative. Peskov's comments on cyber fraud vulnerability could be a domestic IO deflection. Anton Nemkin's statements on "Max" promoting "digital sovereignty" are part of a domestic narrative of self-reliance. The civilian fatality in Sochi due to a UAF drone attack will be immediately and heavily leveraged by RF IO to portray Ukraine as a terrorist state targeting civilians, further galvanizing domestic support and attempting to undermine international sympathy for Ukraine. Colonelcassad's FPV drone compilation will boost morale among pro-war segments of the population, emphasizing RF's tactical effectiveness. RF MOD's video showing destruction of UAF UAV control points and infantry in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast serves as tactical propaganda for effective operations. TASS promoting cultural events at the St. Petersburg forum and Mironov's social proposals reinforce a narrative of domestic stability and international engagement. TASS, citing Marochko, claiming RF has "knocked out" UAF from Hlushchenkove and forced a withdrawal to a second line, is a direct RF propaganda claim of tactical success designed to demoralize UAF and boost domestic RF morale. Colonelcassad's "БУДЬТЕ ВНИМАТЕЛЬНЫ и ОСТОРОЖНЫ!" (BE CAREFUL and CAUTIOUS!) messages with photos of alleged ordnance and mine warning signs is a direct psychological operation targeting civilians in contested or occupied areas, aiming to instill fear and potentially impede UAF movement. RF is also adapting its domestic IO to showcase national projects and cultural initiatives, projecting an image of stable development and integration, including in newly occupied territories. TASS, citing Miroshnik, immediately reports on civilian casualties from alleged UAF strikes, a consistent IO tactic to portray Ukraine as attacking civilians. Margarita Simonyan's personal news is used to maintain a narrative of normalcy and human connection for key figures. Basurin's "Day in History" is part of a broader historical/cultural IO effort. Fighterbomber's "Wake up and sing, country!" is a morale-boosting, nationalistic message. TASS citing Miroshnik on daily UAF munitions impacting RF territory reinforces the narrative of a threat to RF civilians. Kotsnews video from Makeevka is part of the RF narrative of UAF attacking civilians. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS amplifying The Times' assessment indicates RF's deliberate escalation. Moscow News' report on antidepressant demand could be leveraged as a subtle IO element, contrasting with an image of resilience. TASS, citing Golikova, emphasizing the 80th anniversary of Victory as a central theme for the St. Petersburg Forum, reinforces a historical narrative for current state legitimacy. TASS, citing Nikoronova, claiming Finnish politicians will be accountable for poor relations with Russia, illustrates an IO effort to project blame and influence internal political dynamics in Finland. TASS, citing Kartapolov, continues anti-Finland rhetoric, framing Helsinki's policy as "irresponsible" and potentially leading to conflict. ASTRA reports Trump blaming Democrats for the death of Ukrainian refugee Iryna Zarutska in the US, which will be leveraged by RF IO to sow discord and criticism of US aid to Ukraine. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's claim about UAF showing fires in Zaporizhzhia but alleging the homes were uninhabited is a clear pre-emptive IO effort to counter UAF narratives and downplay civilian casualties from RF strikes. ТАСС, citing Kimakovsky, reporting on UAF redeploying Latin American mercenaries to Pokrovsk and their alleged destruction, is a highly inflammatory and targeted IO tactic designed to discredit foreign fighters and their effectiveness. "Два майора" reports on "media provocations," likely referring to Western media, and amplifies the claims of civilian casualties in Donetsk from UAF strikes. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, claiming the Izium-Barvinkove route is unsafe due to RF drones and citing "Azov" militants, is a subtle IO attempt to validate their claims by referencing a source (albeit an enemy one) and project control over UAF logistics. "Операция Z" video featuring Marjorie Taylor Greene's comments on US aid to Ukraine is a direct and sustained RF IO effort to influence Western political discourse and undermine support for Ukraine. Rybar's cartographic overview (video), with its strong anti-European rhetoric and claims of Europe being "exhausted" and pursuing weapon sales, aims to degrade international support for Ukraine, particularly from within Europe. Filolog v Zasade's video regarding water supply issues in Donetsk, questioning official statements and implying mismanagement of funds, could be an internal RF IO campaign to address local grievances or deflect blame, while potentially reinforcing a narrative of Ukrainian suffering under current governance in occupied areas. TASS, citing Volodin, making strong negative statements about Macron's leadership in France, is a clear RF IO effort to sow discord among Western allies and portray their leadership as weak or incompetent. Colonelcassad stating "Russia is undoubtedly aware of these plans," referring to Western plans, and citing Putin and the Foreign Intelligence Service, is a high-level IO tactic to project RF's intelligence superiority and pre-emptively counter any Western initiatives. TASS reports on social services options for Russians and the sale of Domodedovo airport contribute to a domestic IO narrative of a functioning, well-governed state focused on internal affairs. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's report that "Asif withdrew his candidacy" and "all's well that ends well" appears to be an internal RF political/social commentary, implying resolution of a local issue, contributing to a sense of stability. Moscow News reporting 36% increase in antidepressant demand could be a subtle indicator of domestic stress, but will likely be overshadowed by narratives of external threat and military success. Colonelcassad's POW video is designed to generate public outrage and strengthen domestic support by portraying UAF as brutal. Mash na Donbasse's video on Makeevka damage and casualties aims to further galvanize public opinion against Ukraine. Рыбарь's "Infection Garden of Europe" graphic aims to create negative public sentiment towards Europe among the Russian populace. "Два майора" (RF source) call for donations reflects ongoing public engagement and support for the war effort, even if localized. Kotsnews video shows RF soldiers receiving supplies, which will boost morale among RF forces and their supporters. "Два майора" video showing injured RF soldiers being evacuated from combat will resonate with domestic audiences about the sacrifices being made. Colonelcassad reports on sentencing of Ukrainian saboteurs, reinforcing the narrative of internal security and state strength. "Два майора" posts photos of Sochi mayor inspecting drone damage, likely to amplify public outrage and support for retaliation. The grim video of injured Russian soldiers in a trench from МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, discussing lack of water and severe infection, is a significant negative indicator for Russian troop morale and could be detrimental if widely disseminated. Mash на Донбассе reports damage to two schools and a kindergarten in Donetsk, which will be heavily leveraged to fuel public outrage and support for military actions. TASS reports difficulties finding a new PM could lead to Macron's resignation, reinforcing narratives of Western weakness. "Два майора" posts image claiming Ukraine's arms production is increasingly moved abroad, aimed at showing UAF weakness. Басурин о главном and TASS post on "I am Russian" phrase and trademark, further reinforcing nationalistic sentiment. WarGonzo posts photo message on Donetsk liberation day, aimed at eliciting emotional responses and galvanizing support. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны post photo messages on Ukrainian refugees, intended to highlight the humanitarian costs for Ukraine. TASS reports on Nepal protests, which will be presented as evidence of global instability beyond Russia's actions. Старше Эдды video on knife sharpening is likely for domestic consumption, projecting normalcy. TASS, citing Lavrov, continues the "Nazi virus" narrative, a persistent anti-Western IO. TASS, citing US Vice-President J.D. Vance, comparing Trump-Epstein to Russiagate, is an RF IO effort to sow discord in US politics. Sever.Realii reports a St. Petersburg deputy was not fined for a Navalny photo, which could be spun by RF IO as a sign of justice or, by opposition, as a small win against suppression. TASS reports on a human rights activist sentenced for "fakes" about Bucha, which reinforces the narrative of suppressing dissent. TASS also reports on financial penalties for an individual convicted of an explosion in Stupino, which will be leveraged as a demonstration of state control. TASS reports Pierre de Gaulle, grandson of Charles de Gaulle, wishes to acquire Russian citizenship, demonstrating RF IO's capability to attract high-profile Western figures and challenge Western narratives. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА promotes a new Russian Orthodox war film, showcasing RF's capability for state-supported morale boosting and propaganda through cultural means. Рыбарь posts on "Lost Americans on the Armenian border," indicating RF IO to undermine US influence. "Два майора" reports the dismissal of the French Prime Minister, an RF IO effort to highlight Western political instability. The large narcotics bust in Moscow Oblast will be used to highlight internal security successes. RF's recruitment video (Военкор Котенок) aims to boost morale and commitment. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны amplifying Arestovych's skepticism regarding the Iskander strike aims to cause confusion within Ukraine and reassure Russian audiences about the strike's success. НгП раZVедка claims Ukraine is trying to pass off its crime in Yarova as a FAB strike, a direct counter-IO effort to shift blame. Старше Эдды comments on protests in Nepal, attributing them to social media blockades and criticizing the government's approach, indicating an adaptive RF IO effort to influence perceptions of censorship and civil unrest globally, potentially to shape domestic narratives as well, by cautioning against social media bans. Alex Parker Returns' numerous photo messages (funeral receipt, medical documents, IDs) are likely an IO effort intended to fabricate casualties or highlight alleged negative impacts on civilians, likely for IO purposes to discredit UAF actions or Western support. TASS reports Peskov stating Putin's schedule was not affected by the Sochi drone attack, reinforcing domestic IO of strong, unwavering leadership. Басурин о главном's new program and Старше Эдды's economic-nationalist narrative further demonstrate effective C2 within the milblogger network and state media for consistent IO messaging, aiming to reinforce domestic support. WarGonzo posts photo messages claiming "Generation Z overthrows government in Nepal," aiming to highlight global instability and imply a model for change, potentially for domestic or international consumption. TASS reports Lavrov strongly condemns Western attempts to remove Milorad Dodik from power in Republika Srpska, demonstrating RF's continued use of IO to support pro-Russian figures and oppose Western influence in the Balkans. Colonelcassad posts video of the aftermath of an attack in Yarova, blaming UAF for a "provocation" against civilians receiving pensions, similar to the Kramatorsk attack. This is an immediate and aggressive counter-IO effort to shift blame for civilian casualties. Operativny ZSU posts video of Andrey Kartapolov making escalating statements against Finland, labeling it a "hotbed of fascism." This is an aggressive and escalating IO tactic aimed at Finland and NATO. ASTRA reports a Russian artist, Alexey Kiryanov, has been put on a wanted list after being sentenced to 12 days for inciting hatred against "Putin's voters." This indicates internal suppression of dissent and an IO effort to label critics as extremist. "Два майора" posts photo message raising concerns about "Azerbaijani diaspora" influence in Udmurtia regional elections. This indicates RF's internal political messaging efforts to address perceived ethnic/migrant issues, potentially for domestic nationalistic appeal. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a photo of Putin integrated into a "MAX" interface, indicating RF's efforts to expand its digital presence and influence as part of its IO strategy. Оперативний ЗСУ reports, citing Reuters, that the RF government views demobilization as a greater risk than the return of "Afghans" in '89, indicating concerns about the social impact of returning veterans. Операция Z (citing Russian Spring War Correspondents) reports 150,000 people subscribed to Putin's channel on Max in the first 24 hours, a clear IO effort to project popular support for Putin. ТАСС, citing Maria Zakharova, reports an ethnographer was released by Afghan authorities due to friendly relations with Moscow. This is an IO effort to project Russia's diplomatic influence and global reach, especially with non-Western aligned states. TASS reports on a proposal to limit "unjustified complaints" against artists, indicating an IO effort to protect cultural figures and manage internal discontent. NEW: TASS posts videos of protestors capturing and burning the Nepalese parliament building, and later burning the house of former Prime Minister Nath Khanal, with his wife seriously injured. This will be immediately leveraged by RF IO to highlight global instability and social unrest, diverting attention from Ukraine and potentially serving as a model for promoting anti-Western narratives. NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts a video of "some kind Russian people" making an offer to Roman Alekhin, and later posts photo messages defending Alekhin. This suggests an internal RF IO campaign to discredit or rehabilitate a pro-war blogger, highlighting internal conflicts within the RF information space related to integrity and finance. This also demonstrates RF's intent to control its internal narrative and address perceived corruption or misbehavior within the pro-war community. NEW: "Два майора" posts a message criticizing Roman Alekhin for his video, stating he "compromised the entire volunteer movement." This confirms an intent to maintain the integrity and public trust of the volunteer movement, as it is a critical component of RF's war sustainment and IO. NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a photo message recruitment advertisement for the Russian military, displaying the Russian flag and emphasizing "Defend your country! We are looking for the brave!" This is a direct IO effort to encourage military service and maintain force levels. NEW: Старше Эдды (RF) posts a video with #КультураДНР, showing a live music performance. This is an an IO effort to project normalcy, cultural life, and integration in occupied territories, aiming to boost local morale and normalize occupation. NEW: Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны (RF) posts a video quoting Polish President Nawrocki stating "there is no need for the presence of Polish troops in Ukraine." This is an IO effort to highlight perceived divisions or a lack of commitment within NATO regarding direct military involvement in Ukraine.
• UAF Counter-Propaganda (Responsive): UAF IO celebrates tactical successes (Zarichne liberation, high air defense interception rates, deep strikes, activity in Crimea, successfully halting mechanized assaults, advances on Sumy direction, destruction of RF ammo depot, GUR strike on RF radar systems in Crimea, successful engagement of RF soldiers by drone near Chasiv Yar), highlights RF aggression (Cabinet of Ministers strike evidence, recent strikes on Zaporizhzhia, attacks on Sumy rescue/police, Penza gas pipelines, alleged aviation bomb strike on Yarova, RF strikes on Zaporizhzhia), and counters RF narratives (debunking Zaluzhny/Nord Stream, promoting national unity and military morale, Arestovych's skepticism on Iskander strike amplified by RF). UAF quickly reports civilian casualties from RF strikes (e.g., Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Yarova). РБК-Україна reports on US scaling back disinformation fight, implicitly warning European audiences of increased RF/Chinese IO. UAF will likely highlight the successful drone strike in Sochi as evidence of capability and a response to RF aggression, while attempting to counter RF claims of civilian targeting (which RF will immediately amplify). RBK-Ukraine's report on foreign components in the Iskander-K missile serves as a subtle counter-IO, highlighting RF's reliance on external sources despite sanctions, and potentially embarrassing RF on its claims of self-sufficiency. UAF will need to quickly address and counter the RF claim of withdrawal from Hlushchenkove (Kharkiv Oblast), either by denying it or providing context for a tactical repositioning. "Оперативний ЗСУ" claiming a combined UAF drone/missile attack on Donetsk military objects will be used to demonstrate UAF offensive capabilities and target military assets, directly countering RF narratives of targeting civilians. UAF General Staff and RBK-Ukraine's reporting of RF losses serves to boost morale and counter RF claims of military success. Oleksandr Vilkul's report on Kryvyi Rih's "controlled" situation is local IO to reassure the population. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS amplifying The Times' assessment indicates efforts to rally international support against perceived RF escalation. ASTRA reports Trump blaming Democrats for the death of a Ukrainian refugee in the US could stir negative sentiment among Ukrainian diaspora and those relying on Western support. РБК-Україна's reporting on US presidential election dynamics and its impact on peace talks demonstrates an awareness of the fragility of political support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS quoting the Italian Foreign Minister on "no peace before Christmas" sets realistic (and potentially sobering) expectations for the conflict's duration, which could impact long-term morale planning. STERNENKO reporting on "Другая росія" demanding price freezes, which could be leveraged to highlight internal dissent and economic problems within RF. РБК-Україна reports expanded grounds for mobilization exemption, which could be framed as a measure to protect vital sectors and maintain national resilience. UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posting "Доброго ранку, народе України!" (Good morning, people of Ukraine!) is a simple but effective morale-boosting message. UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" also posts a photo message satirizing Putin's recent award to Gerasimov, directly counter-messaging RF leadership and boosting UAF morale through mockery. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС's video describing one Russian soldier finishing off another after a drone drop, then self-denazifying, is a powerful and graphic counter-IO piece designed to highlight RF demoralization and brutality. ASTRA's image regarding the journalist Victoria Ivleva and the previously detained Irina Krynina might be part of an ongoing UAF-aligned IO effort related to humanitarian issues or prisoner exchanges, aimed at maintaining international attention on such matters. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights the Cabinet of Ministers strike as a new stage of escalation, reinforcing UAF narrative. STERNENKO's humorous but improbable claim of Ukrainian strategic aviation flying to bomb Sevastopol could serve as a morale booster, projecting confidence and a proactive stance. РБК-Україна reports RF forces attacked rescue workers and police in Sumy Oblast, injuring personnel, which will evoke public outrage and concern for essential services. The Coordination Staff for Treatment of POWs meeting with families is vital for maintaining morale and trust among military families. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС videos highlighting harsh frontline conditions and wounded soldiers will foster empathy and support for UAF personnel. A domestic crime in Kyiv saw a military woman undergoing treatment robbed, a localized setback to morale and security. The Coordination Staff for Treatment of POWs held a meeting in Kharkiv with families of missing and captured servicemen, indicating ongoing support for military families. "Два майора" posts video of 61st Brigade soldiers thanking supporters for camouflage netting, indicating proactive IO around volunteer support. UAF counters RF IO regarding Yarova. РБК-Україна reports PM Shmyhal's arrival at Ramstein meeting and Ukraine's goals, signaling continued active diplomatic IO. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the SBU has detained FSB agents, demonstrating effective counter-intelligence IO. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video of a UAF soldier expressing hardship and losses, which serves as a raw, emotional counter-narrative to RF claims of Ukrainian weakness and could garner international sympathy. The Prosecutor General's Office report on the aviation bomb strike in Yarova, detailing over 20 dead and dozens wounded, serves as powerful counter-IO to highlight RF war crimes. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts graphic photos of bodies of civilians in Yarova, explicitly blaming "cynical Russian monsters" and linking the attack to "Soviet soldiers" memorial, a strong counter-IO combining imagery and narrative to galvanize anti-Russian sentiment. STERNENKO posts about protests in Nepal following social media blocks, amplifying a narrative about government overreach, potentially for international consumption to highlight issues of censorship. The Coordination Staff for Treatment of POWs publishes details of a meeting with an Odesa public organization, serving as counter-IO to RF narratives of UAF mistreatment of prisoners and highlighting ongoing efforts to support POW families. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts photos of UAF contract soldiers receiving awards, serving as counter-IO to RF narratives of low morale and recruitment difficulties. NEW: РБК-Україна posts a photo message titled "Russia brings only death": Sybiha called on the world to respond to the tragedy in Yarova, indicating an immediate and strong UAF counter-IO response to the civilian casualties. NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts an appeal from President Zelenskyy that "the complete loss of Donbas will lead to a tragedy." This is a strong UAF IO message designed to galvanize international support and domestic resolve by highlighting the severe consequences of further territorial losses. NEW: STERNENKO posts photo messages highlighting the Nepalese protests against messenger bans, stating "The government has already resigned." This is a UAF IO effort to amplify instances of civil disobedience leading to government change, potentially to inspire or influence narratives about popular movements. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Poland will close its border with Belarus due to "Zapad-2025" exercises, which can be leveraged by UAF IO to highlight the regional impact of RF/Belarusian military activities and solidify the image of NATO's vigilance. INTELLIGENCE GAP: What is the extent of Western (US/EU) collaboration in countering Russian, Chinese, and Iranian disinformation, and how will the reported US withdrawal (FT) impact this effort and UAF's ability to counter RF IO?

4.2. Public sentiment and morale factors (Confidence: HIGH)

• Ukrainian Public Sentiment: Remains largely resilient and determined despite devastating RF strikes. Public anxiety is high due to persistent aerial threats and infrastructure damage, exacerbated by the Kyiv flooding. Morale is boosted by UAF successes, transparent communication, and national support initiatives, but challenges like mobilization fatigue and perceived internal corruption (Takhtai's death) could erode trust. The threat of continued RF drone strikes on major cities like Zaporizhzhia will further test morale. The injury of children in Kharkiv Oblast by explosive devices will elicit strong public condemnation. The continued high number of air alerts across Ukraine will maintain high public tension. The ongoing threat of new RF UAV groups in Chernihivskyi district, Chernihiv, and Konotop district, Sumy Oblast and KAB launches on Sumy Oblast will contribute to public anxiety in northern regions. The detailed report on foreign components in the Iskander-K may reinforce a narrative of RF's continued reliance on external support. RF claims of UAF retreat from Hlushchenkove, if amplified effectively by RF IO, could negatively impact local and national morale if not countered swiftly. Colonelcassad's mine warnings are designed to instill fear and caution among civilians, potentially affecting their daily lives and movement. Reports of civilian casualties in Zaporizhzhia will continue to affect local morale. UAF General Staff's report on RF losses will likely boost national morale. Oleksandr Vilkul's report from Kryvyi Rih reassures the local population. Kotsnews' video from Makeevka, showing damage to a residential building, will contribute to public fear of RF strikes on civilian areas. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS amplifying The Times' assessment of a "new stage of the war" aims to galvanize public resolve against intensified RF aggression. The immediate ballistic missile threat from the northeast will heighten public anxiety. ASTRA reporting Trump blaming Democrats for the death of a Ukrainian refugee in the US could stir negative sentiment among Ukrainian diaspora and those relying on Western support. Oleg Synehubov reports on 9 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast hit by enemy strikes, reinforcing civilian hardship and potential for localized morale impact. The coordinated "Minute of Silence" and commemoration across various state and UAF channels aims to reinforce national unity and resilience, fostering a sense of shared sacrifice and remembrance. Zaporizhzhia OVA posts about opening a memorial plaque for a fallen defender, which will boost local morale and sense of community. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS quoting the Italian Foreign Minister on "no peace before Christmas" sets realistic (and potentially sobering) expectations for the conflict's duration, which could impact long-term morale planning. STERNENKO reporting on "Другая росія" (Another Russia) demanding price freezes in RF highlights internal dissent within Russia, which could provide a morale boost to Ukrainians. РБК-Україна reports expanded grounds for mobilization exemption, which could be framed as a measure to protect vital sectors and maintain national resilience. UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦"'s "Доброго ранку, народе України!" aims to boost morale. UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦"'s sarcastic post mocking Putin and Gerasimov will likely resonate positively with Ukrainian audiences, boosting morale and fostering a sense of defiance against RF leadership. The "Rubizh" brigade's fundraising drive (РБК-Україна) reflects a persistent need for public support, but also a resilient community-driven effort to sustain forces. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС's video describing one Russian soldier finishing off another after a drone drop, then self-denazifying, is a powerful and graphic counter-IO piece designed to highlight RF demoralization and brutality. Оперативний ЗСУ's emphasis on the Cabinet of Ministers strike as a new stage of escalation will likely galvanize public resolve and support for continued resistance. STERNENKO's humorous but improbable claim of Ukrainian strategic aviation flying to bomb Sevastopol could serve as a morale booster, projecting confidence and a proactive stance. РБК-Україна reports RF forces attacked rescue workers and police in Sumy Oblast, injuring personnel, which will evoke public outrage and concern for essential services. The Coordination Staff for Treatment of POWs meeting with families is vital for maintaining morale and trust among military families. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС videos highlighting harsh frontline conditions and wounded soldiers will foster empathy and support for UAF personnel. A domestic crime in Kyiv saw a military woman undergoing treatment robbed, a localized setback to morale and security. The Coordination Staff for Treatment of POWs held a meeting in Kharkiv with families of missing and captured servicemen, indicating efforts to support military families and maintain morale. "Два майора" posts video of 61st Brigade soldiers thanking supporters for camouflage netting, indicating positive impact on unit morale from public support. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches on northern Kharkiv Oblast and drones in Kyiv Oblast, with PVO active, maintaining public tension and anxiety. Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 and КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) post videos of Zelenskyy's interview from a destroyed US enterprise, intended to boost morale by showing presidential leadership and international engagement. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports Cabinet of Ministers changed mobilization exemption rules, which could have a mixed impact on morale, potentially easing concerns for some while highlighting ongoing mobilization needs. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on a case against Kharkiv SIZO employees, which could positively impact public trust in the justice system. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts video of a "Vampire" drone medical evacuation, which will boost morale and trust in UAF's ability to care for its soldiers. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС posts a video of a soldier expressing strong desire to go home, indicating potential morale strain from prolonged combat. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts about a local paddler winning bronze medals, a civilian morale booster showing resilience. STERNENKO posts about fundraising for "Rusorez", indicating continued citizen support for military efforts and morale. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video of a Ukrainian military unit successfully engaging two Russian soldiers near Chasiv Yar, which will boost morale regarding tactical effectiveness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of President Zelenskyy discussing buffer zones and drone warfare, which will reassure the public of strategic thinking. Сили оборони Півдня України posts a video showcasing the UAF 40th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade's training, indicating continued morale in specialized units. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС posts a video depicting the capture of Russian soldiers, which boosts morale. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video showing Ukrainian police officers detaining an individual, which could cause friction due to mobilization enforcement. RF's alleged aviation bomb strike on Yarova, with over 20 civilian deaths, will cause widespread outrage and potentially bolster determination for resistance. РБК-Україна's report of an "Ukrposhta" manager wounded in Yarova highlights the vulnerability of essential civilian service providers and will likely evoke public sympathy and outrage. Odesa schools receiving Shahed warnings (РБК-Україна) will heighten public anxiety in the region. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video of a UAF soldier expressing hardship, losses, and a desire to go home, which is a significant indicator of morale strain and could negatively impact public sentiment if widely disseminated without adequate counter-messaging. The Prosecutor General's Office report on the aviation bomb strike in Yarova, detailing over 20 dead and dozens wounded, will cause widespread outrage and reinforce determination for resistance. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a video and photo messages claiming Russian aggressors killed dozens of civilians in Yarova, aiming to galvanize public outrage and determination. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts graphic photos of bodies of civilians in Yarova, explicitly blaming "cynical Russian monsters" and linking the attack to "Soviet soldiers" memorial, a strong counter-IO combining imagery and narrative to galvanize anti-Russian sentiment. STERNENKO posts about protests in Nepal following social media blocks, amplifying a narrative about government overreach, potentially for international consumption to highlight issues of censorship. The Coordination Staff for Treatment of POWs publishes details of a meeting with an Odesa public organization, serving as counter-IO to RF narratives of UAF mistreatment of prisoners and highlighting ongoing efforts to support POW families. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts photos of UAF contract soldiers receiving awards, serving as counter-IO to RF narratives of low morale and recruitment difficulties. NEW: РБК-Україна posts a photo message titled "Russia brings only death": Sybiha called on the world to respond to the tragedy in Yarova, which will galvanize Ukrainian public outrage and reinforce resolve against RF aggression. NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts an appeal from President Zelenskyy that "the complete loss of Donbas will lead to a tragedy." This is a strong message aimed at galvanizing public resolve and support for continued resistance, highlighting the high stakes. NEW: STERNENKO posts photo messages highlighting the Nepalese protests against messenger bans, stating "The government has already resigned." This could provide a morale boost to Ukrainians by highlighting the potential for public action to effect change. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video on evacuation efforts in frontline communities of Zaporizhzhia, demonstrating governmental care and potentially boosting local morale by providing a clear path to safety. NEW: Oleg Synehubov, Head of Kharkiv OVA, warns of an expected thunderstorm in Kharkiv, which could temporarily impact public sentiment due to disruption, but also implies continued governmental communication and readiness.
• Russian Public Sentiment: Continues to be reinforced by nationalistic narratives of strength and success, promoted by aggressive state and milblogger IO. Limited dissent or awareness of war costs is suppressed by information control. Narratives of external threats (European "militarism," Medvedev's biological warfare claims) are used to foster national unity. RF milbloggers like "Colonelcassad" continue to promote content (e.g., the video featuring Syrsky and Yermak, and new Storm Shadow claims, and the Benjamin Reed interview alleging war crimes by "Chosen Company") designed to undermine Ukrainian leadership and Western support, potentially affecting both domestic and international audiences. The TASS report on pension increases is a clear attempt to boost domestic morale. Peskov's comment on Putin's working conditions also contributes to maintaining the image of a strong, dedicated leader. The "Best Family Employer" initiative is another domestic effort to build positive sentiment. The reporting on internal crime (Tuva, Khabarovsk Krai, Moscow Oblast narcotics bust) and internal legal issues (Umnov, Krasnoyarsk dichlorvos case) is likely intended to demonstrate the state's focus on domestic issues and rule of law, projecting normalcy. The St. Petersburg cultural forum news is also part of this domestic normalcy narrative. The Khabarovsk police video is a local effort to show effective governance and heroic civil service, aimed at boosting local pride and trust in authorities. The civilian fatality in Sochi due to a UAF drone attack will likely generate strong public outrage and reinforce narratives of external threats, potentially increasing support for the "special military operation." The arrest of Sergei Derevyanko for treason serves to reinforce the government's control and messaging on internal security. Colonelcassad's FPV drone compilation will boost morale among pro-war segments of the population, emphasizing RF's tactical effectiveness. Mironov's proposal regarding food for vulnerable populations and the government's support for the dangerous dogs bill are attempts to project concern for public welfare and maintain social cohesion. The lifting of the "red level" UAV threat in Lipetsk will reassure the local population regarding air defense effectiveness. TASS reports claiming RF success in Hlushchenkove and Kremensky forests will boost morale among pro-war segments of the Russian population. The lifting of the "yellow level" UAV threat by Lipetsk Governor Artamonov will reassure local populations about air defense efficacy. The criminal case against Andrey Gorshkov ("Rumo") will be presented as the state fighting corruption, reinforcing law and order. The "Forum of United Cultures" and discussion of national projects in "Donbas and Novorossiya" will resonate positively with nationalist and pro-integration segments of the population. TASS reports of 31 UAVs shot down over RF regions and claims of civilian casualties from UAF strikes will reinforce the narrative of external threats and strengthen domestic support for military actions. Margarita Simonyan's personal news is an example of humanizing key figures for domestic audiences. Moscow News reports a 36% increase in antidepressant demand, which, if interpreted as a reflection of societal stress, could negatively impact morale, but will likely be overshadowed by narratives of external threat and military success. Arkhangel Spetsnaza's message aims to boost morale among its followers. TASS, citing Nikoronova, on Finnish politicians' accountability will likely resonate with a segment of the Russian public that believes in historical grievances against neighboring states. ТАСС, citing Kartapolov, continues anti-Finland rhetoric, aiming to galvanize public support against perceived external threats. ТАСС, citing Kimakovsky, reporting on UAF redeploying Latin American mercenaries to Pokrovsk and their alleged destruction, will boost morale among pro-war segments by highlighting perceived RF military effectiveness against foreign fighters. The awarding of the Order of Courage to Chief of General Staff Gerasimov by Putin (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники) is a public display of support for the military leadership, boosting morale within the armed forces and projecting confidence to the public. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's reporting on UAF showing fires in Zaporizhzhia but alleging the homes were uninhabited, is a psychological operation aimed at discrediting UAF and preventing any potential negative impact on RF public opinion from reports of RF strikes on civilian areas. Arkhangel Spetsnaza's promotion of "Safe City" system installation across Russia aims to reassure the populace about state protection and domestic security. Rybar's cartographic overview (video), emphasizing alleged UAF civilian strikes and the exhaustion of Europe, aims to both increase domestic outrage against Ukraine and signal internal strength/resilience. Filolog v Zasade's video regarding water supply issues in Donetsk, questioning official statements and implying mismanagement of funds, could create localized discontent if not effectively managed by authorities, but it is framed within a pro-RF narrative. TASS reports on social services, and the Domodedovo airport sale, aim to project a stable, functioning government to the RF public, maintaining morale through a focus on domestic affairs. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's report that "Asif withdrew his candidacy" and "all's well that ends well" appears to be an internal RF political/social commentary, implying resolution of a local issue, contributing to a sense of stability. Moscow News reporting 36% increase in antidepressant demand could be a subtle indicator of domestic stress, but will likely be overshadowed by narratives of external threat and military success. Colonelcassad's POW video is designed to generate public outrage and strengthen domestic support by portraying UAF as brutal. Mash na Donbasse's video on Makeevka damage and casualties aims to further galvanize public opinion against Ukraine. Рыбарь's "Infection Garden of Europe" graphic aims to create negative public sentiment towards Europe among the Russian populace. "Два майора" (RF source) call for donations reflects ongoing public engagement and support for the war effort, even if localized. Kotsnews video shows RF soldiers receiving supplies, which will boost morale among RF forces and their supporters. "Два майора" video showing injured RF soldiers being evacuated from combat will resonate with domestic audiences about the sacrifices being made. Colonelcassad reports on sentencing of Ukrainian saboteurs, reinforcing the narrative of internal security and state strength. "Два майора" posts photos of Sochi mayor inspecting drone damage, likely to amplify public outrage and support for retaliation. The grim video of injured Russian soldiers in a trench from МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, discussing lack of water and severe infection, is a significant negative indicator for Russian troop morale and could be detrimental if widely disseminated. Mash на Донбассе reports damage to two schools and a kindergarten in Donetsk, which will be heavily leveraged to fuel public outrage and support for military actions. TASS reports difficulties finding a new PM could lead to Macron's resignation, reinforcing narratives of Western weakness. "Два майора" posts image claiming Ukraine's arms production is increasingly moved abroad, aimed at showing UAF weakness. Басурин о главном and TASS post on "I am Russian" phrase and trademark, further reinforcing nationalistic sentiment. WarGonzo posts photo message on Donetsk liberation day, aimed at eliciting emotional responses and galvanizing support. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны post photo messages on Ukrainian refugees, intended to highlight the humanitarian costs for Ukraine. TASS reports on Nepal protests, which will be presented as evidence of global instability beyond Russia's actions. Старше Эдды video on knife sharpening is likely for domestic consumption, projecting normalcy. TASS, citing Lavrov, continues the "Nazi virus" narrative, a persistent anti-Western IO. TASS, citing US Vice-President J.D. Vance, comparing Trump-Epstein to Russiagate, is an RF IO effort to sow discord in US politics. Sever.Realii reports a St. Petersburg deputy was not fined for a Navalny photo, which could be spun by RF IO as a sign of justice or, by opposition, as a small win against suppression. TASS reports on a human rights activist sentenced for "fakes" about Bucha, which reinforces the narrative of suppressing dissent. TASS also reports on financial penalties for an individual convicted of an explosion in Stupino, which will be leveraged as a demonstration of state control. TASS reports Pierre de Gaulle, grandson of Charles de Gaulle, wishes to acquire Russian citizenship, demonstrating RF IO's capability to attract high-profile Western figures and challenge Western narratives. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА promotes a new Russian Orthodox war film, showcasing RF's capability for state-supported morale boosting and propaganda through cultural means. Рыбарь posts on "Lost Americans on the Armenian border," indicating RF IO to undermine US influence. "Два майора" reports the dismissal of the French Prime Minister, an RF IO effort to highlight Western political instability. The large narcotics bust in Moscow Oblast will be used to highlight internal security successes. RF's recruitment video (Военкор Котенок) aims to boost morale and commitment. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны amplifying Arestovych's skepticism regarding the Iskander strike aims to cause confusion within Ukraine and reassure Russian audiences about the strike's success. НгП раZVедка claims Ukraine is trying to pass off its crime in Yarova as a FAB strike, a direct counter-IO effort to shift blame. Старше Эдды comments on protests in Nepal, attributing them to social media blockades and criticizing the government's approach, indicating an adaptive RF IO effort to influence perceptions of censorship and civil unrest globally, potentially to shape domestic narratives as well, by cautioning against social media bans. Alex Parker Returns' numerous photo messages (funeral receipt, medical documents, IDs) are likely an IO effort intended to fabricate casualties or highlight alleged negative impacts on civilians, likely for IO purposes to discredit UAF actions or Western support. TASS reports Peskov stating Putin's schedule was not affected by the Sochi drone attack, reinforcing domestic IO of strong, unwavering leadership. Басурин о главном's new program and Старше Эдды's economic-nationalist narrative further demonstrate effective C2 within the milblogger network and state media for consistent IO messaging, aiming to reinforce domestic support. WarGonzo posts photo messages claiming "Generation Z overthrows government in Nepal," aiming to highlight global instability and imply a model for change, potentially for domestic or international consumption. TASS reports Lavrov strongly condemns Western attempts to remove Milorad Dodik from power in Republika Srpska, reinforcing domestic support for RF's stance against Western influence. Colonelcassad posts video of the aftermath of an attack in Yarova, blaming UAF for a "provocation" against civilians receiving pensions. This will be used to generate public outrage and bolster domestic support for military actions. Operativny ZSU posts video of Andrey Kartapolov making escalating statements against Finland. This aims to galvanize anti-Finnish sentiment and portray Finland as a threat. ASTRA reports a Russian artist, Alexey Kiryanov, has been put on a wanted list for inciting hatred against "Putin's voters." This indicates continued efforts to suppress dissent and reinforces the narrative that internal critics are extremists. "Два майора" posts photo message raising concerns about "Azerbaijani diaspora" influence in Udmurtia regional elections, indicating an effort to appeal to nationalistic sentiment and address perceived internal issues. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts a photo of Putin integrated into a "MAX" interface. This is part of a domestic IO effort to project a strong leader and digital presence. Оперативний ЗСУ reports, citing Reuters, that the RF government views demobilization as a greater risk than the return of "Afghans" in '89. This indicates a domestic IO challenge for RF, as returning veterans could disrupt the internal narrative. Операция Z (citing Russian Spring War Correspondents) reports 150,000 people subscribed to Putin's channel on Max in the first 24 hours, a clear IO effort to project widespread popular support for Putin. ТАСС, citing Maria Zakharova, reports an ethnographer was released by Afghan authorities due to friendly relations with Moscow. This is an IO effort to boost domestic pride and project Russia's global diplomatic influence. TASS reports on a proposal to limit "unjustified complaints" against artists, indicating an IO effort to manage internal discontent and protect pro-government cultural figures. NEW: TASS posts videos of protestors capturing and burning the Nepalese parliament building, and later burning the house of former Prime Minister Nath Khanal, with his wife seriously injured. This will be immediately leveraged by RF IO to highlight global instability and social unrest, diverting attention from Ukraine and potentially serving as a model for promoting anti-Western narratives. NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts a video of "some kind Russian people" making an offer to Roman Alekhin, and later posts photo messages defending Alekhin. This suggests an internal RF IO campaign to discredit or rehabilitate a pro-war blogger, highlighting internal conflicts within the RF information space related to integrity and finance. This also demonstrates RF's intent to control its internal narrative and address perceived corruption or misbehavior within the pro-war community. NEW: "Два майора" posts a message criticizing Roman Alekhin for his video, stating he "compromised the entire volunteer movement." This confirms an intent to address internal issues within the pro-war milblogger community, aiming to maintain credibility and trust, as integrity of volunteer movements affects domestic public support. NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a photo message recruitment advertisement for the Russian military, displaying the Russian flag and emphasizing "Defend your country! We are looking for the brave!" This is a direct IO effort to encourage military service and maintain force levels, appealing to patriotism. NEW: Старше Эдды (RF) posts a video with #КультураДНР, showing a live music performance. This is an an IO effort to project normalcy, cultural life, and integration in occupied territories, aiming to boost local morale and normalize occupation. NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники (RF) video depicting extremely emaciated individuals, possibly POWs or victims of neglect. If these are UAF personnel, this will be leveraged by RF IO to demoralize UAF forces and galvanize domestic support by portraying UAF personnel in a negative light. If RF personnel, it would be suppressed or reframed. NEW: TASS reports the most expensive tour this summer was sold for 34 million rubles to Turkey, which RF IO will use to project an image of economic stability and normalcy for its citizens.
• International Support for Russia (Limited but Persistent): The Mayor of Nemuro's proposal for seismology cooperation indicates RF's continued efforts to find areas of non-Western engagement, which can be leveraged for diplomatic legitimacy.

4.3. International support and diplomatic developments (Confidence: HIGH)

• Support for Ukraine: Remains sustained, evidenced by the upcoming "Ramstein" meeting, ongoing sanctions efforts (EU 19th package, Latvia), and diplomatic condemnation of RF actions. NATO maintains vigilance (US RC-135V, Swedish Gulfstream IV). EU accession efforts continue. However, Trump's statements and Western political instability (French government resignation) introduce complexity and potential for shifts in support. The US calling on the EU to abandon Russian gas in exchange for new sanctions against Moscow (FT report) signals continued pressure. TASS reporting on Financial Times commentary suggests Europe is considering contingency plans if US support for Ukraine diminishes, indicating some uncertainty. TASS's mention of Boris Johnson's alleged corruption is a clear attempt to undermine Western credibility. TASS amplifying Marjorie Taylor Greene's proposal to cut US aid to Ukraine directly targets a key pillar of international support. РБК-Україна reports on US scaling back disinformation fight, implicitly warning European audiences of increased RF/Chinese IO. The detailed reporting on foreign components in the Iskander-K (30+ parts) provides concrete evidence for Western governments to pursue further sanctions enforcement and investigate supply chains supporting RF's military-industrial complex. The UAF drone strike in Sochi, especially with a civilian fatality, will test the narrative of international support, with RF attempting to frame it as terrorism and an unprovoked attack on civilians, putting pressure on Western allies to distance themselves from such actions. РБК-Україна's report on Trump's defamation fine is not directly military intelligence but could be used in some IO contexts by RF to portray internal US political dysfunction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS amplifying The Times' assessment indicates efforts to rally international support against perceived RF escalation. ASTRA reports Trump blaming Democrats for the death of a Ukrainian refugee in the US. While domestically focused, this could be leveraged by RF to undermine narratives of Western support for Ukrainian refugees and aid. РБК-Україна's reporting on US presidential election dynamics and its impact on peace talks demonstrates an awareness of the fragility of political support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS quoting the Italian Foreign Minister on "no peace before Christmas" sets realistic (and potentially sobering) expectations for the conflict's duration, which could influence public and political discourse regarding the conflict's duration. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ promoting the acquisition of German "Skyranger" anti-drone systems from Rheinmetall underscores continued crucial military support from a NATO ally. DeepState also reports on Rheinmetall supplying anti-drone systems. Colonelcassad propagates a narrative of European countries developing a plan to "occupy" Ukraine for its resources and to recover aid money, with France as the organizer. This is a highly aggressive disinformation campaign aimed at fracturing international support by sowing distrust among allies. "Операция Z" video featuring Marjorie Taylor Greene actively lobbying to cut US aid to Ukraine is a clear signal of ongoing political efforts in the US that could impact international support. Rybar's cartographic overview (video), with its strong anti-European rhetoric and claims of Europe being "exhausted" and pursuing weapon sales, aims to degrade international support for Ukraine, particularly from within Europe. Colonelcassad's assertion that "Russia is undoubtedly aware of these plans" (Western plans concerning Ukraine) is a high-level IO tactic to project RF's intelligence superiority and pre-emptively counter any Western initiatives. Оперативний ЗСУ reports, citing FT, that the US is ceasing cooperation with Europe on countering disinformation from RF, China, and Iran. This is a significant diplomatic development that could weaken Western capabilities to counter RF IO. TASS reports Lavrov's pool of journalists applying for US visas, indicating RF's continued engagement with international diplomatic forums, potentially to influence narratives. Alex Parker Returns reports a Latvian police investigation into an imperial Russian flag, indicating potential RF influence operations in Baltic states. Azerbaijan's public opinion poll (Alex Parker Returns) showing Russia as the main enemy is a significant indicator of changing geopolitical alignments in the South Caucasus, potentially reducing RF influence there. TASS, citing Polish President Karol Nawrocki, states there is no need for Polish military presence in Ukraine, which is a statement that could be leveraged by RF IO to highlight perceived divisions in NATO or a lack of commitment to Ukraine. TASS, citing The New York Times, reports difficulties finding a new PM could lead to Macron's resignation, an RF IO effort to destabilize Western leadership. Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 and КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) post videos of Zelenskyy's interview from a destroyed US enterprise, a direct appeal for continued international support, emphasizing the ongoing fight and sanctions evasion. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Ukraine may face a deficit of air defense systems, highlighting the critical need for continued, robust international military aid. "Два майора" posts image claiming Ukraine's arms production is increasingly moved abroad, likely an RF IO effort to discourage international arms supply to Ukraine. Операция Z and Военкоры Русской Весны post photo messages on Ukrainian refugees, intended to highlight the humanitarian costs for Ukraine. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video of captured Russian POWs, which could be used to garner international support for humane treatment of prisoners. TASS reports Pierre de Gaulle, grandson of Charles de Gaulle, wishes to acquire Russian citizenship, which is an RF IO effort to challenge Western narratives. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video of President Zelenskyy discussing buffer zones, which serves as a diplomatic communication of Ukraine's strategic posture. Сили оборони Півдня України posts a video showcasing the UAF 40th Separate Coastal Defense Brigade's training, demonstrating continued Western training and support for specialized units. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС posts a video depicting the capture and transport of Russian soldiers, which can be used to garner international support for UAF's adherence to Geneva conventions. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a video showing Ukrainian police officers detaining an individual, which could be used to highlight Ukraine's internal legal processes and rule of law. Alex Parker Returns posts images and videos of violent protests and Prime Minister resignation in Nepal, which RF IO will leverage to highlight global instability. STERNENKO reports nearly 123,000 airline flights affected by Russian GPS interference in the Baltic region, which could be used to galvanize international condemnation of RF. РБК-Україна reports PM Shmyhal has arrived in London for the "Ramstein" meeting and has announced Ukraine's goals. This indicates continued, high-level international diplomatic and military support and coordination for Ukraine. TASS reports Lavrov strongly condemns Western attempts to remove Milorad Dodik from power in Republika Srpska. This demonstrates RF's continued diplomatic efforts to oppose Western influence in the Balkans and support pro-Russian figures. Operativny ZSU posts video of Andrey Kartapolov making escalating statements against Finland, labeling it a "hotbed of fascism." This is an aggressive diplomatic attack aimed at a NATO member, testing Western unity and resolve. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a meeting with the Head of the Council of Europe Office in Ukraine, Maciej Janczak, indicating continued international legal and diplomatic support. Рыбарь posts a graphic about a no-confidence vote in France, which is an RF IO effort to highlight Western political instability and internal divisions. The Coordination Staff for Treatment of POWs reports a meeting with an Odesa public organization, indicating continued international support for POW affairs and humanitarian efforts. NEW: TASS reports Poland will close its border with Belarus due to "Zapad-2025" exercises. This is a significant diplomatic and security development, highlighting NATO's response to perceived threats from RF/Belarusian military activities. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ corroborates Poland's decision to close its border with Belarus, reinforcing the importance of this development for regional security and international relations. NEW: Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны (RF) posts a video quoting Polish President Nawrocki stating "there is no need for the presence of Polish troops in Ukraine." This is an IO effort to highlight perceived divisions or a lack of commitment within NATO regarding direct military involvement in Ukraine, potentially influencing international support for Ukraine. NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Germany will provide Ukraine with new air defense systems for protection against drones, confirming continued critical military aid from a NATO ally.
• Support for Russia: Limited but persistent, mainly from China (economic support) and through Global South outreach (BRICS summit, Afghanistan aid). RF attempts to divert international attention to other conflicts (Israel-Syria strikes) and portray Western disunity (e.g., "Операция Z" amplifying Vučić's anti-EU statements). The announced Russian-Arab summit in Moscow on 15 OCT indicates RF's continued efforts to build international alliances and diplomatic support outside the Western sphere. The TASS report on the St. Petersburg cultural forum with 60+ countries aims to project international legitimacy and soft power. Rybar's expansion into Latin American IO indicates a broader strategy to cultivate influence and support in regions beyond traditional Western alliances. The narrative of "cancellation of Russian culture" (Golikova) aims to generate international sympathy and deflect from RF actions. RF will immediately capitalize on the Sochi drone strike and civilian fatality to garner international sympathy, portraying itself as a victim of "terrorist acts" and attempting to delegitimize UAF actions and international support for Ukraine. The allegations of war crimes by "Chosen Company" (executions, chemical weapons) in the Benjamin Reed interview are aimed at discrediting foreign military assistance to Ukraine and portraying foreign fighters as brutal mercenaries, potentially eroding international support. TASS reports on the St. Petersburg forum featuring artists from Ethiopia and China (Jackie Chan's troupe) are clear diplomatic and cultural soft power plays. Golikova's report on the "Forum of United Cultures" and its international participation (2,600+ participants) is a clear attempt to project RF's international diplomatic engagement and cultural soft power, particularly to a non-Western audience. The discussion of national projects expanding to "Donbas and Novorossiya" reinforces RF's narrative of integrating these territories and is intended for both domestic and international audiences. TASS reports regarding the Mayor of Nemuro, Japan's proposal for resuming seismology and tsunami monitoring cooperation with RF, highlight RF's continued efforts to build diplomatic bridges and present itself as a responsible international actor, even in non-military domains. TASS, citing Nikoronova, framing Finnish politicians as accountable for strained relations with Russia, serves to influence international narratives and potentially create diplomatic friction for Finland. TASS, citing Kartapolov, continues anti-Finland rhetoric, aiming to influence international narratives. The awarding of the Order of Courage to Chief of General Staff Gerasimov by Putin is a symbolic gesture aimed at bolstering military standing and projecting strength internally and externally. TASS, citing Volodin's statements on Macron, represents a diplomatic effort to undermine Western unity. Рыбарь's "Infection Garden of Europe" graphic is a new piece of anti-Western propaganda designed to undermine international support for Ukraine. TASS reports on Lavrov's pool of journalists applying for US visas might be used to project a desire for international engagement on RF terms. ASTRA reports China is preparing to open its bond market for large Russian energy companies, indicating continued significant economic support from China, strengthening RF's financial resilience against sanctions. TASS reports protesters set fire to Nepal PM's residence, which will be used to highlight global instability and project an image of a world in turmoil, distracting from Ukraine. TASS, citing Lavrov, emphasizes the "Nazi virus" weakening immunity in Western countries, a persistent diplomatic IO effort. TASS, citing J.D. Vance, comparing Trump-Epstein to Russiagate, is an RF IO effort to influence perceptions of US political stability. TASS reports Pierre de Gaulle, grandson of Charles de Gaulle, wishes to acquire Russian citizenship, demonstrating RF's continued efforts to attract high-profile Western figures and challenge Western narratives. Alex Parker Returns' numerous photo messages could be part of an IO effort to influence international perceptions of UAF casualties or civilian harm. Старше Эдды's economic-nationalist narrative about Russia's economic gains from the SVO and NATO's losses is clearly aimed at both domestic and international audiences to promote RF's position. TASS reports Lavrov strongly condemns Western attempts to remove Milorad Dodik from power in Republika Srpska. This demonstrates RF's continued efforts to support pro-Russian figures and use diplomatic channels to oppose Western influence in the Balkans. TASS reports no evacuation of Russian diplomats from Nepal is planned, indicating a stable assessment of the situation despite ongoing civilian unrest, projecting confidence in RF's ability to operate globally. TASS, citing Maria Zakharova, reports an ethnographer was released by Afghan authorities due to friendly relations with Moscow. This projects Russia's diplomatic influence and global reach, especially with non-Western aligned states. NEW: TASS posts videos of protestors capturing and burning the Nepalese parliament building, and later burning the house of former Prime Minister Nath Khanal. This will be immediately leveraged by RF state media to highlight global instability and social unrest, diverting international attention from the conflict in Ukraine and potentially framing it as a model of popular uprising against (Western-aligned) governments. NEW: TASS reports the most expensive tour this summer was sold for 34 million rubles to Turkey, indicating continued international economic engagement for RF.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most likely enemy courses of action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

• RF Ground Offensive on Pokrovsk Axis: RF will continue and intensify its ground offensive on the Pokrovsk axis, aiming for a decisive breakthrough. Given the reported breakthrough near Chynyshyn, RF will likely exploit this tactical success to further advance towards Pokrovsk. This will involve combined arms assaults with integrated drone support and attempts to consolidate recent gains. They will likely increase efforts to establish fire control over the outskirts of Sloviansk. Continued RF ground/air integration as seen in Kharkiv Oblast and the claimed destruction of a UAF UAV control point in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are likely. RF will leverage any tactical gains, such as the claimed UAF withdrawal from Hlushchenkove, the Kremensky forests advance, and capture of Novoselivka, to advance positions and maintain offensive momentum on the Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia axes. RF will continue to use reconnaissance drones (e.g., "Baba Yaga," and newly reported in Sumy, Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk borders, and Odesa) to identify UAF positions and targets, and destroy UAF robotic systems to maintain tactical advantage. RF will likely continue offensive operations on the Vremevka direction, employing drone support to suppress UAF positions. RF will continue to identify and target foreign fighters, as indicated by TASS's claim of destroying Latin American mercenaries in Dnipropetrovsk, to degrade UAF combat effectiveness and deter further foreign involvement. RF will prioritize targeting UAF tactical C2 and fire support assets near the frontline, as demonstrated by the destruction of a UAV control point and mortars near Berestok. RF will continue to use small drones for tactical interdiction against UAF armor, as seen in the Kupyansk direction. RF will maintain pressure on the Sumy direction, potentially with localized ground probing or assaults, supported by reconnaissance UAVs. "Два майора" video showing injured RF soldiers being evacuated confirms ongoing ground engagement and will likely prompt continued offensive actions. TASS claim that UAF abandoned wounded comrades (RF claim) indicates a focus on airstrikes to inflict UAF casualties. The grim video of injured Russian soldiers in a trench from МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники suggests that RF will continue to attempt to push forward despite poor conditions and casualties. RF will continue heavy MLRS fire support on the Pokrovsk direction. RF will continue tactical ground operations and attempts to capture UAF personnel, as seen on the Vremevka direction. RF will continue to employ FPV drones for strike and counter-drone operations on the front lines. RF will continue to target UAF UAV control points using ground units, as observed with "Sparta" battalion. RF will continue to use drones for detection and engagement of UAF personnel as observed near Chasiv Yar. RF will intensify efforts to establish "buffer zones" to push UAF artillery out of range. RF will continue to advance on the Siverske direction. RF "Anvar" special forces will continue cross-border operations in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. RF will continue to target UAF logistical convoys (e.g., pickup truck with British radios in Konstantinovka). RF will continue to integrate drones for anti-armor operations. RF will continue to target UAF temporary deployment points (PVDs). Colonelcassad claims "Yunakivka is ours!" (Sumy Oblast), reinforcing previous unverified claims of RF ground presence. RF "Northern" Group of Forces will continue nighttime tactical operations, including vehicle engagements with missile/ordnance. NEW: RF will continue tactical advances in the Pokrovsk direction, supported by "Сливочный каприз" (RF) photo messages. NEW: RF will intensify efforts to target UAF UAV control points, especially those located in residential areas, as shown by Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition's footage, implying a hybrid approach to degrade UAF drone capabilities. NEW: RF will continue tactical reconnaissance and strikes on UAF fortified positions in the Kharkiv direction, as shown by Kadyrov_95's footage.
• Sustained Deep Strike Campaign: RF will maintain a high tempo of precision missile and mass drone strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure (especially ahead of winter), MIC facilities, logistical nodes, and opportunistic governmental C2 targets. Expect further KAB launches on frontline regions, as seen in the last hour on northern Kharkiv Oblast and Sumy Oblast, and potentially from the additional 5 KABs reported by ASTRA. The Tu-95MS strategic bomber launch indicates an imminent large-scale missile strike. Zaporizhzhia and other major cities remain high-priority targets for drone attacks, particularly civilian infrastructure. Given the successful UAF drone strike in Sochi, RF will likely respond with increased internal air defense vigilance and potentially retaliatory deep strikes against UAF targets. RF will persist in acquiring foreign components for advanced weapons like the Iskander-K, potentially intensifying clandestine procurement efforts. RF will prioritize retaliatory strikes on UAF military objects in occupied Donetsk, following the claimed UAF combined attack. The immediate ballistic missile threat from the northeast indicates high probability of further strategic missile launches. The Iskander-M strike on an industrial facility in Druzhkivka confirms continued targeting of industrial