Situation Report

SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - 081630Z SEP 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (Confidence: HIGH) RF forces continue a concentrated ground offensive on the Pokrovsk axis, with confirmed RF advances in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast ('Khoroshe', Sosnivka, Voronne) and Donetsk Oblast (Zvirove, Myrnohrad approaches, Sofiyivka). Intense combat is also reported near Krasny Liman, DPR, and the RF 103rd Regiment is advancing towards Konstantinovka. UAF reports clashes near Vovchansk, Ambarne, Kamyanka (South Slobozhansky/Kharkiv direction), Kupyansk, Pischane (Kupyansk direction), Karpivka, Hrekivka, Serednye, Drobysheve, Shandryholove, Derylove (Lyman direction), Serebryanka, Hryhorivka, Yampil, Siversk (Sieversk direction), Markove, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Stupochky, Minkivka (Kramatorsk direction), Poltavka, Scherbynivka, Pleschiyivka (Toretsk direction), Shakhove, Vilne, Kotlyne, Novopidhorodnye, Novoekonomichne, Rodynske, Myrolubivka, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Promin, Lysivka, Udachne, Dachne, Novoukrayinka and towards Novopavlivka (Pokrovsk direction), Komyshuvakha, Zelenyi Hai, Obratne, Olhivske, Oleksandrohrad and towards Ivanivka, Sosnivka, Filiya (Novopavlivka direction), Plavni, Mala Tokmachka, Stepnohirsk and Novodanylivka (Orikhiv direction). UAF repelled 9 RF assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. RF MOD claims destruction of fuel and UAF infantry in DPR. "Z комитет + карта СВО" claims advances at Kolodezi (Lyman direction) and Sofiyivka. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports continued fighting along the eastern direction, specifically in the Kharkiv Oblast area of responsibility, indicating sustained ground pressure. "Сливочный каприз" reports localized RF control in the Artemivsk-Hryhorivka area. Extensive damage observed in Pokrovsk via aerial footage. RF source "Alex Parker Returns" claims liberation of Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast, stating it was the main Ukrainian defensive line before Sumy city, and that there is now "operational space" to Sumy suburbs. (Confidence: LOW - RF claim, no UAF verification). "Z комитет + карта СВО" reports advances at Sofiyivka and new advances on the Pokrovsk axis. "Сливочный каприз" reports a "Geran-2" strike on UAF positions in Novodonetske and drone strikes on the 33rd Mechanized Brigade in Dobropillya. Colonelcassad provides a tactical map for the Krasnoliman direction. An RF drone or guided munition strike has destroyed a UAF "Senator" vehicle in Oktyabrsky (Colonelcassad). New RF ground activity reported on the Siverske direction. UAF 63rd Brigade's drone pilots are actively targeting RF forces attempting to advance into Torske and Zarichne. RF Southern Grouping of Forces claims destruction of UAF infantry and equipment in Dronovka, DPR. STERNENKO (UAF) reports drone pilots from the Phoenix Aviation Systems (Phoenix Gv BAS) halted another Russian mechanized assault on the Pokrovsk axis. UAF General Staff video features a Ukrainian soldier discussing his positive experiences with mortars, potentially indicating continued morale and effective use of indirect fire. RF (Воин DV) claims aerial attacks on UAF positions in Ivanivka.

Deep strikes persist on Ukrainian energy, industrial, and civilian infrastructure. Confirmed damage to the Sumy Oblast Administration (OVA) building, the Ukrainian Government Headquarters in Kyiv, the Sokil ice arena in Kyiv, and the Cabinet of Ministers building in Kyiv (Iskander-K cruise missile, not Shahed, confirmed by Defense Express and UAF sources). A new strike on Dobropillia in Donetsk Oblast has caused significant destruction to a multi-story residential building. UAF maintains a defensive posture, conducts counter-drone operations, and executes deep strikes into RF territory (Ilsky Oil Refinery, Druzhba oil pipeline, Rosneft gas station in Klimovo, Krasnodar Krai refinery), and on occupied Donetsk and Makeevka. Damage to the Kremenchuk bridge has been confirmed; however, automotive traffic on the Kryukiv bridge has reportedly been restored, and electricity has been fully restored in Kremenchuk. UAF Falcon Squad has reportedly damaged an RF TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" heavy flamethrower system on the Vovchansk axis. UAF reports destruction of an RF BM-27 "Uragan" MLRS by an FPV drone 47 km from the frontline. UAF has captured an RF soldier in the Serebryansk forest area. ASTRA reports one civilian casualty in Rylsk, Kursk Oblast, from a Ukrainian attack. Video footage shows extensive damage to Pokrovsk from drone view. Explosions are heard in Donetsk amidst UAV activity. TASS reports UAF mass drone attacks on Donetsk and Makeevka, injuring civilians. RF tactical aviation launches KABs on Sumy Oblast and on Donetsk region. Zaporizhzhia Oblast is partially de-energized, with causes being investigated. Melitopol's energy supply has been restored. RF reconnaissance UAV reported in Black Sea heading towards Odesa. TASS reports school No. 20 in Kalininsky district, Donetsk, damaged by UAF UAV, with two people hospitalized. WarGonzo reports UAF drone attack in Donetsk park, injuring four, including children. WarGonzo also reports Ukrainian terrorists attacked school in Donetsk. TASS reports that Kyiv deliberately struck children and parents in the "Gulliver" park in Donetsk (Zakharova). TASS also reports RF reserves the right to respond to this attack. Colonelcassad reports a strike on a substation in Novhorod-Siverskyi. UAF Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Administration confirm RF artillery and FPV drone attacks on Nikopol region, including Nikopol city and several surrounding communities, resulting in damage to residential infrastructure and civilian casualties. Mash na Donbasse reports active shelling of Donetsk, Yenakievo, and Makeevka by UAF.

UAV activity continues to be significant, with RF UAVs reported in Kyiv Oblast (PVO active, alert lifted at 00:21Z SEP 08), strike UAV inbound to Chornomorske, multiple groups to eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Pavlohradskyi district), and movement from Sumy to Chernihiv Oblasts. Trypilska TPP is under drone attack, causing power outages. A downed Shahed is reported over Odesa. Multiple groups of RF UAVs are moving from Chernihiv to Kyiv Oblast, with confirmed UAVs inbound to Pavlohrad, Hlevakha, Vasylkiv, Boyarka, and Vyshneve. A new air alert for Kyiv was declared at 23:34Z (07 SEP), with a Shahed-type UAV confirmed inbound from the south at 23:47Z (07 SEP), and lifted at 00:21Z (08 SEP). Colonelcassad posts photos showing extensive damage to school No. 20 in Donetsk, alleging a direct drone hit, with Pushilin reporting six residential buildings and a school damaged. TASS reports an electricity supply disruption in Yasynuvata, affecting 15,000 subscribers. Colonelcassad posts video of alleged aerial combat over Chasiv Yar, with RF VDV UAVs reportedly destroying UAF high-altitude drones. RF industrial activity highlights the first flight of the import-substituted SJ-100 aircraft. RF IO is heavily active, disseminating videos mocking Zelenskyy, alleging UAF losses near Krasnoarmiisk, and publicizing domestic policy initiatives (Mironov on pensions), diplomatic positions (Peskov on international understanding), and Trump's statements on Ukraine, while leveraging public figures for domestic unity. RF is also employing Orlan-10 drones for FPV drone delivery. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches on Donetsk region and Sumy Oblast. TASS posts video of a captured Ukrainian soldier alleging UAF uses school buses for mobilized personnel transport, a clear RF propaganda effort. Donald Trump has stated European leaders will visit the US early this week to discuss resolving the war in Ukraine. New intel indicates RF continues to conduct humanitarian aid operations in Afghanistan, with a second plane carrying supplies departing. This reflects an RF effort to project global reach and humanitarian concern, potentially as a counter-narrative to international criticism over Ukraine. Domestically, a high-profile corruption case involving former Deputy Head of Rosprirodnadzor, Oleg Mitvol, saw his appeal for pardon denied. This signals an ongoing internal focus on anti-corruption efforts within Russia, likely for internal political messaging to maintain public trust. Ukrainian resources publish a dynamic map of battles near Pokrovsk for August, allegedly refuting Commander-in-Chief Syrsky's claims of significant UAF success. Large-scale electricity disruptions have occurred in Kyiv Oblast. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has issued an "Attention" alert. RF MOD claims "North" group fighters destroyed UAF cluster points in Sumy Oblast. TASS reports RF MOD is seeking to recover over 40 million rubles from Russian Railways (RZhD) in a series of new lawsuits. Restrictions on aircraft reception and departure at Kaluga airport have been lifted. A high-speed rail construction project between Moscow and St. Petersburg is underway, involving approximately 6,000 builders and 2,000 units of construction equipment. RF FPV drones have reportedly disrupted UAF communications in Kharkiv Oblast. RF special forces 'Anvar' claim destruction of fuel stations in Chernihiv Oblast. One individual has been apprehended after escaping a detention center in Yekaterinburg. UAF claims 910 RF personnel losses in the past 24 hours. RF claims capture of US Bradley IFV and French VAB APC in Kursk Oblast. UAF General Staff reports the deoccupation of Zarichne, Donetsk Oblast, by the 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skela". The death toll in Kyiv from yesterday's attack has risen to three confirmed fatalities, including a child. Explosions have been reported in Kherson. RF (TASS) claims a Ukrainian outpost commander, Lieutenant Andriy Hadzhuk, was eliminated by a missile strike in Sumy Oblast. RF (Операция Z) claims Russian forces, after taking Khoroshe, have advanced into Sosnivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian police report that RF forces mined parts of residential areas in Kherson overnight. A UAV (likely Shahed-type) is reported on the border of Zhytomyr and Rivne Oblasts, kursing west. UAF General Staff provides updated operational information as of 080800Z SEP 25. RF MOD claims seven Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian territory. WarGonzo reports on the front line situation for morning 080800Z SEP 25 with tactical maps of Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Donetsk regions. Minenergo (Ukraine) and Operativny ZSU report Russia massively attacked a thermal power generation facility in Kyiv Oblast. Zaporizhzhia OVA reports a difficult night (5-6 SEP) for Zaporizhzhia, with two fatalities and one injury in Polohy district due to shelling, and a total of 444 strikes resulting in damage to 16 multi-story buildings and a kindergarten, with three injuries in Zaporizhzhia region and a 6-year-old child wounded in Kupiansk from mortar attacks. Basurin claims 6 people (including 3 minors) were injured in a drone attack on "Gulliver" park in Donetsk. Zvizedets Mangust reports UAF counter-attacked in the Volodymyrivka – Novotoretske direction, reaching Pankivka and Mayak, with unconfirmed reports of reaching Novotoretske. Air Force of Ukraine issues a ballistic missile threat from the southern direction. Poddubny reports American mercenaries continue to arrive in Ukraine. Operatsia Z reports Venezuela is mobilizing 25,000 troops, claiming this as an external development. UAF Air Force reports 112 out of 142 enemy UAVs were shot down/suppressed overnight, with over 100 being Shaheds. Oleg Synegubov, Head of Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, reports 8 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were struck yesterday. A Russian military truck was hit, with the driver killed ("200"). Syrsky reports UAF regained 58 sq. km of territory in August, liberating several settlements. TASS reports evidence of alleged executions of civilian vehicles by UAF from captured phones. Ukrainian Ministry of Energy reports an attack on a thermal generation facility in Kyiv Oblast. Ukrainian cyber specialists from GUR have reportedly accessed Russian fuel card servers, indicating an ongoing cyber offensive. An RF strike on infrastructure in Shostka, Sumy Oblast, has caused power outages. Russia has proposed denouncing the European Convention for the Prevention of Torture. RF continues KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad shares updated map changes for the past day. A garage roof was damaged in Donetsk on Komissarzhevskaya Street due to a drone impact, as reported by Kulemzin. The Air Force of Ukraine has issued a threat warning for hostile strike UAVs in Lozivskyi district (Kharkiv Oblast), Synelnykivskyi district (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), and Pavlohradskyi district (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). Additionally, hostile UAVs are approaching Chernihiv from the northeast, indicating continuous aerial pressure on northern Ukraine. UAF reports that automotive traffic on the Kremenchuk bridge has been restored. RF forces from the 69th Brigade are conducting assault actions on the Vremevka direction, using FPV drones and TM mines against enemy dugouts and personnel. RF has attacked a resident of Kherson with a drone. TASS reports a Russian court has banned Wintershall Dea from suing RF abroad and imposed a €7.5 billion penalty for violation. Dmitry Medvedev claims that Helsinki is preparing for war and a possible attack on Russia. Basurin reports a journalist investigating fortification corruption was found dead in Sumy. Politico reports that Western observers will analyze the "Zapad-2025" exercises to assess Russian combat readiness. STERNENKO (GUR MO) showcases "Barakuda" drones effectively destroying Russian drones and military equipment. Rybar provides a tactical map for "wintering in the south," potentially indicating troop movements. НгП раZVедка reports on the results of night strikes. TASS announces a second updated Tu-214 aircraft has joined Red Wings, with flights planned to Georgia and Israel. ASTRA reports a bus shooting in Jerusalem with at least 15 injured. Военкор Котенок (Военкор Котенок) features a pro-Kremlin election video for an Azerbaijani diaspora leader in Ivanovo Oblast. TASS announces the Kremlin has launched an official channel for the President of RF on the national messenger Max. SBU has revealed new details about a "mole" in NABU, highlighting an FSB agent network targeting Ukraine, including former SBU employees and a National Guard serviceman. The General Staff of Ukraine (ZSU) is promoting Special Operations Forces (SSO) qualification courses. Народная милиция ДНР posts a video claiming destruction of UAF infantry and positions in the Vladimirovka area. RF FSB has detained a Ukrainian saboteur in Stavropol, allegedly a former Azerbaijani special forces member, who confessed to espionage activities. UAF Air Force reports hostile UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Pavlohrad and Petropavlivka) and Kharkiv Oblast (Bliznyuky/Lozova). UAF Air Force reports KAB launches towards Kramatorsk. UAF Air Force reports high-speed targets towards Kramatorsk. UAF Air Force reports hostile strike UAVs threatening Zhytomyr Oblast. STERNENKO reports the acquisition of +450 FPV drones, including 40 Shahed interceptors, in the last two days. TASS reports advice from the Ministry of Internal Affairs on Telegram account security. Два майора highlights unsold new housing in St. Petersburg. Liveuamap Source reports on recent clashes in South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv), Kupyansk, Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv directions, and that UAF repelled 9 RF assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. Air Force of Ukraine reports rocket danger for Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Kotsnews reports a series of strikes on Kramatorsk. UAF reports RF attacked Dobropillia (Donetsk Oblast) at 080400Z SEP 25, causing significant destruction to a multi-story residential building. Colonelcassad has published a "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine 07 September - 08 September 2025," which includes video of fires/explosions in Kyiv. RF MOD claims PVO forces shot down 12 Ukrainian UAVs over Crimea and one over the Black Sea between 080800Z and 081100Z SEP 25. UAF "Revenge" brigade of the State Border Guard Service claims to have captured more RF prisoners. "Shadow" unit has released drone footage of a successful strike on RF trenches. MoD Russia video claims a Kub loitering munition (1st Guards Tank Army, Zapad Group of Forces) destroyed a camouflaged self-propelled artillery system and manpower in Kharkiv region. RF military blogger "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims at least 92 US mercenaries have been eliminated in the SMO zone. Операция Z reports enemy attacks on Enerhodar, with PVO and EW actively countering UAVs. RF MOD claims strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure supporting military industrial complex (MIC) and air defense radar stations. UAF Air Force reports a hostile UAV over Horodnia, Chernihiv Oblast. РБК-Україна reports an RF attack on a DTEK enrichment plant in Donetsk Oblast, completely paralyzing its operations. Colonelcassad reports on drone operations by RF forces over the right bank of the Dnipro near Kherson and on the Kherson-Mykolaiv highway, impacting UAF logistics. UAF Air Force reports a hostile UAV south of Zaporizhzhia city. MoD Russia publishes a report on the progress of the special military operation, though specifics are not immediately detailed. ASTRA reports the death toll from the Jerusalem bus attack has risen to six. UAF reports 12 fatalities and 27 injured (including a 6-year-old child) in Kupiansk, Kozacha Lopan, and Khotimlya between 1-7 SEP due to RF strikes. RF claims a UAF "Lord" UAV with Starlink was found on the Azov Sea coast, suggesting UAF reconnaissance activity. RF claims the "Nord Stream" pipeline saboteurs acted on Zaluzhny's orders (Welt via Операция Z, TASS). The Office of the Prosecutor General reports a successful operation against an organized criminal group in Ivano-Frankivsk region. "Два майора" posts images of "soldier's everyday life," likely for morale. UAF "РБК-Україна" reports a police officer committed suicide near a cemetery in Kryvyi Rih. "Воин DV" posts photos claiming the 35th Army grounded two "Baba Yaga" and one "Lelka" drones on the Polohy direction. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the strike on the Cabinet of Ministers building was by an Iskander cruise missile (9M727), not a Shahed. "РБК-Україна" corroborates this, emphasizing the precise nature of the strike. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України" reports a threat of hostile strike UAVs in Mykolaiv Oblast, and another in Chernihiv Oblast (Nizhynskyi district). An explosion has occurred near a military unit in Khabarovsk, Russia, which sources attribute to forces that committed war crimes in Kyiv Oblast (РБК-Україна). TASS reports the decapitated body of a CEO of a potash and magnesium salt mining company was found under a bridge in Kaliningrad Oblast. Военкор Котенок reports a large smoke plume from a strike in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating continued RF aerial activity. ASTRA reports EU Ambassador to Ukraine displaying remnants of an unexploded missile at the Cabinet of Ministers, confirming the strike and munition type. The Presidential Brigade of UAF claims to have successfully shot down an Iskander-K cruise missile using a ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft system, demonstrating continued air defense capabilities against advanced threats. Kadyrov (RF) claims an Akhmat Special Purpose Regiment destroyed a Ukrainian tank (likely T-72 variant) with a drone in the Kharkiv direction (Group Izum of 204th Regiment), indicating continued RF drone effectiveness and engagement in Kharkiv. UAF Air Force alert for strike UAVs entering Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, kursing southwest. UAF Air Force alert for Chernihiv regarding hostile UAVs. RF TASS reports a small plane made an emergency landing in Moscow Oblast due to engine failure, a domestic incident with no immediate military relevance. RF reports destruction of a Starlink station and UAF infantry on the Kramatorsk-Druzhkivka direction (TASS). UAF 40th Coastal Defense Brigade is employing Barracuda unmanned surface vessels (USVs) in Kherson Oblast, indicating adaptive naval drone usage (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS). RF reportedly struck UAF repair facilities in Kremenchuk with Geran UAVs (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺). Colonelcassad shows tactical maps depicting RF advances towards Sofiyivka and Shakhove, and around Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (Confidence: MEDIUM) Conditions remain generally clear and favorable for ongoing air operations by both sides, including missile and UAV strikes across most of Ukraine. This is supported by continued high volumes of RF UAV activity (Odesa, Chernihiv Oblast, Sumy Oblast KAB launches) and ongoing UAF drone operations. The RF use of FPV drones on the Vremevka direction and for strikes in Konstantinovka, DPR, implies good visibility and stable atmospheric conditions for precision drone operations in those areas. However, UAF "РБК-Україна" reports a thunderstorm approaching Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast, indicating a potential shift in weather patterns that could impact aerial operations, especially drone and precision strike activities, in the capital region within the next 6-12 hours. This may force RF to adapt its air campaign, potentially favoring missile strikes over large-scale drone attacks if visibility or wind conditions deteriorate. Current warnings for drone threats in Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts indicate continued favorable conditions for RF UAV operations in those regions, suggesting localized weather variations. Heavy rainfall has caused significant flooding in Kyiv, which will impede ground movement, disrupt local logistics, and impact civilian life. This will also affect tactical and operational maneuverability for both sides in the capital region.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (Confidence: HIGH)

• RF:
  • Ground Forces: RF continues to concentrate forces on the Pokrovsk axis, with confirmed deployment of marine infantry and "Somali" battalion elements, and imagery showing a military vehicle with "Russian Naval Infantry" insignia. The RF 103rd Regiment is actively engaging UAF infantry and pushing towards Konstantinovka. Localized advances are ongoing in Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts (Khoroshe, Ternove, Sichneve, Sosnivka, Voronne, Zvirove, Myrnohrad approaches, Sofiyivka). Fierce battles are reported near Krasny Liman, DPR. RF "Dnipro" group maintains pressure in Kherson Oblast. EOD specialists of the Dnepr Group of Forces are actively clearing routes in Zaporizhzhia. Tactical air support (144th MSD assault aircraft) is focused on Krasnolimansk. "🅾️tvazhnye" units are conducting high-intensity engagements near Pokrovsk. "Сливочный каприз" reports from Krasny Liman-Kirovsk sector confirm active combat with UAF vehicles and personnel being engaged. "Anvar" special forces are reportedly active near Sumy, implying continued pressure on this axis. "Сливочный каприз" has released drone footage showing an RF drone striking a UAF BM-21 Grad MLRS, indicating continued air-to-ground tactical engagements against UAF artillery. Colonelcassad posts video alleging UAF infantry and equipment under "wings of death" (likely air/drone strikes) on the northwest of Krasnoarmiisk, indicating continued RF ground and air pressure in Donetsk Oblast. RF MOD claims "North" group fighters destroyed UAF cluster points in Sumy Oblast, indicating active ground and/or air engagement in the region. RF special forces 'Anvar' have released video claiming destruction of fuel stations in Chernihiv Oblast, likely targeting UAF logistics. RF claims capture of a US Bradley IFV and a French VAB APC in Kursk Oblast, suggesting active cross-border operations or engagements near the border. RF (Операция Z) claims Russian forces, after taking Khoroshe, have advanced into Sosnivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating continued localized ground advances. Ukrainian police report that RF forces mined parts of residential areas in Kherson overnight, indicating deliberate efforts to impede civilian movement and create defensive barriers or booby traps. WarGonzo provides a front line summary for the morning of 08 SEP, including tactical maps for Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Donetsk regions, indicating active military presence and operations in these areas. Colonelcassad's latest video features a motorized rifle company commander discussing operating in forest belts and populated areas, taking fortified positions, and capturing individual strongholds, emphasizing small-unit tactics and thorough reconnaissance. Воин DV's video compilation of successful RF drone strikes on UAF infantry. Два майора are fundraising for assault troops on the Sumy direction, implying active engagement or preparation for an offensive. Архангел Спецназа reports RF surveillance activities in a forested area, with heat signatures detected, suggesting reconnaissance or target acquisition. MoD Russia has released a video showcasing Grad MLRS crews of the 44th Army Corps (Sever Group of Forces) eliminating camouflaged AFU positions and manpower clusters in Sumy region, indicating continued direct fire support for ground operations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of a military convoy moving along a rural road, indicating organized RF ground movement. Воин DV reports "Boston partisans" (69th Brigade) are conducting assault actions on the Vremevka direction, using FPV drones and TM mines against enemy dugouts and personnel, indicating active ground operations with combined arms. Народная милиция ДНР posts a video claiming destruction of UAF infantry and positions in the Vladimirovka area, using drone footage, confirming offensive operations. RF FSB has detained a Ukrainian saboteur in Stavropol, allegedly a former Azerbaijani special forces member, who confessed to espionage activities. Воин DV posts a video showing fighters of the 25th Army operating on the Krasnolimansky direction, confirming continued military presence and engagement in that area. Liveuamap Source reports RF conducted airstrikes at Novopavlivka, Scherbaky, Mahdalynivka, Lukyanivske of Zaporizhzhia region, Antonivka of Kherson region. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Ambarne and Kamyanka (South Slobozhansky/Kharkiv direction); Kupyansk and towards Pischane (Kupyansk direction); Karpivka, Hrekivka, Serednye and towards Drobysheve, Shandryholove, Derylove (Lyman direction); Serebryanka, Hryhorivka and towards Yampil and Siversk (Sieversk direction); Markove, Orikhovo-Vasylivka and towards Stupochky and Minkivka (Kramatorsk direction); Poltavka, Scherbynivka and towards Pleschiyivka (Toretsk direction); Shakhove, Vilne, Kotlyne, Novopidhorodnye, Novoekonomichne, Rodynske, Myrolubivka, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Promin, Lysivka, Udachne, Dachne, Novoukrayinka and towards Novopavlivka (Pokrovsk direction); Komyshuvakha, Zelenyi Hai, Obratne, Olhivske, Oleksandrohrad and towards Ivanivka, Sosnivka, Filiya (Novopavlivka direction); Plavni and towards Mala Tokmachka, Stepnohirsk and Novodanylivka (Orikhiv direction). "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" video showcasing a Russian paratrooper detailing combat experiences and intelligence gathering (including drone usage) confirms continued small-unit offensive operations and intelligence gathering. MoD Russia has released a video of a Kub loitering munition team (1st Guards Tank Army, Zapad Group of Forces) destroying a camouflaged self-propelled artillery system and manpower of the enemy in Kharkiv region, confirming continued RF loitering munition usage for precision strikes. The reported FPV drone strike in Konstantinovka, DPR, implies continued RF tactical drone operations against UAF logistics and personnel. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts on the Konstantinovka direction, implying continued ground force presence. "Z комитет + карта СВО" shows claimed advances at Kolodezi (Lyman direction) with maps, indicating active RF ground operations in that sector. "Z комитет + карта СВО" continues to report on alleged RF advances at Kolodezi (Lyman direction), highlighting sustained ground pressure. Colonelcassad reports RF drone operators are active on the right bank of the Dnipro near Kherson and on the Kherson-Mykolaiv highway, impacting UAF logistics. "Сливочный каприз" reports on ground activity in the Artemivsk-Hryhorivka area as of 080900Z SEP 25, suggesting continued localized engagements. "Два майора" posts images titled "Soldier's everyday life," depicting soldiers in what appears to be a field or trench environment, reinforcing active ground presence. "Alex Parker Returns" claims Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast, liberated, indicating aggressive RF ground operations in the Sumy region. "Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат»" reports a visit to advanced positions of Akhmat special forces, checking service and confirming no need for additional forces, suggesting confidence in current strength and posture. "Два майора" posts a video of a paratrooper with the callsign "Kitaets" describing combat experiences, aiming to project RF ground force resilience and effectiveness. "Z комитет + карта СВО" reports advances at Sofiyivka. "Операция Z" reports drone operations by RF drone operators on the Pokrovsk direction, indicating continued close air support for ground forces. Colonelcassad posts updated tactical maps for the Krasnoliman direction. The "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" channel, while focusing on internal issues, shows a video of construction work with gabion walls, which could indicate defensive or infrastructure building for RF forces in contested or border areas. Fighterbomber confirms the rapid construction of aircraft shelters at RF tactical and army aviation airfields, reinforcing a defensive and sustainment posture. Colonelcassad reports destruction of a UAF "Senator" vehicle in Oktyabrsky by 132nd Separate Motor Rifle Brigade drone operators. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports activity on the Siverske direction, including photos of RF forces in defensive positions. "Игорь Артамонов" publishes a video showcasing what appears to be military training exercises focusing on readiness and self-defense for youth. MoD Russia reports Uragan MLRS crews are wiping out UAF temporary deployment areas, positions, and manpower on the right bank of the Dnepr River in Kherson region, confirming continued RF ground force pressure and use of heavy artillery. TASS reports that Southern Grouping of Forces destroyed UAF infantry and equipment near Dronovka, DPR. Kadyrov (RF) claims an Akhmat Special Purpose Regiment destroyed a Ukrainian tank with a drone in the Kharkiv direction (Group Izum of 204th Regiment), confirming continued RF drone effectiveness against UAF armor. RF video (Воин DV) shows drone footage of a camouflaged dugout or fortified position in a forested area, likely a UAF position, suggesting ongoing RF reconnaissance and targeting efforts. TASS reports RF Southern Grouping of Forces destroyed a Starlink satellite communication station and UAF infantry using drones on the Kramatorsk-Druzhkivka direction. Belyj Vityaz channel (BUBTUSOV PLUS) shows drone footage of RF positions being engaged. MoD Russia publishes a video featuring a Russian serviceman speaking about being mobilized and questioning his role as an "assault trooper," indicating potential morale issues within RF forces, though the date (March 5, 2025) is in the future.
  • Air Assets: RF maintains overwhelming long-range strike capability, launching 142 UAVs (over 100 Shaheds) and 13 missiles overnight. Tactical aviation continues KAB launches on Sumy Oblast and Donetsk region. Multiple groups of UAVs are detected in Chernihiv, Kyiv (Brovary, Boryspil, Obukhiv, Koncha-Zaspa, Boyarka), and eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. New confirmation of a fresh batch of Su-35S multirole fighter jets delivered to the VKS indicates continued air force modernization and combat readiness. RF reconnaissance UAV from Black Sea is heading towards Odesa. FAB strikes on UAF positions on left bank of Vovchansk confirmed. Николаевский Ванёк reports 8 Shahed-type UAVs from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast moving towards/via Kremenchuk. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF Air Force reports a UAV from the Black Sea towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district in Odesa region. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 confirms roughly half of today's drones were Shaheds. RF UAVs were reported in Kyiv Oblast, with PVO active and the air alert now lifted at 00:21Z SEP 08. An RF strike UAV is now inbound to Chornomorske from the Black Sea. Multiple groups of RF UAVs are inbound to eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Pavlohradskyi district). RF UAVs are reported moving from Sumy Oblast to Chernihiv Oblast. Reports suggest the Trypilska TPP is under drone attack, causing power outages. A downed Shahed is reported over Odesa. Multiple groups of RF UAVs are now reported from Chernihiv Oblast to Kyiv Oblast. A UAV is confirmed inbound to Pavlohrad. RF UAVs were inbound to Hlevakha, Vasylkiv, Boyarka, and Vyshneve in Kyiv Oblast, before the recent air alert was lifted. A new air alert for Kyiv was declared at 23:34Z (07 SEP), with a Shahed-type UAV confirmed by UAF Air Force moving from the south towards Kyiv at 23:47Z (07 SEP), and has been lifted at 00:21Z (08 SEP). Colonelcassad posts video showing alleged aerial combat over Chasiv Yar, with RF VDV UAV units reportedly destroying UAF high-altitude drones. RF has begun using "Orlan-10" drones for FPV drone delivery. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches on Donetsk region and Sumy Oblast. A group of UAVs is reported in Chernihiv Oblast in a south-western direction. A UAV is reported in northern Zhytomyr Oblast, kursing west. RF milblogger 'Дневник Десантника🇷🇺' posted a video of an MLRS firing, followed by drone footage of impacts, suggesting continued indirect fire capabilities and drone-adjusted fire. TASS reports a missile strike in Sumy Oblast which eliminated a Ukrainian outpost commander, indicating continued RF missile strike capability in border regions. ASTRA and RF MOD claim seven Ukrainian drones were shot down over Russian territory, indicating continued air defense activity and border engagements. Minenergo and Operativny ZSU report Russia massively attacked a thermal power generation facility in Kyiv Oblast, confirming continued targeting of critical infrastructure. Zaporizhzhia OVA reports 444 strikes in Zaporizhzhia region over the past day, including drone and mortar strikes, indicating continued and widespread RF aerial and indirect fire activity. RF drones (BPLA) attacked the Trypilska TPP near Kyiv overnight, with Colonelcassad confirming subsequent electricity problems in Kyiv and the region. Kotsnews reports Iskander missile strikes on Kryvyi Rih. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports over 56 RF strikes on military targets in Zaporizhzhia direction last night. UAF Air Force reports new KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force issues new warning for RF strike UAVs in Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorod district). RF drones damaged a garage roof in Donetsk, demonstrating continued precision strike capability on occupied territories. The Air Force of Ukraine reports an ongoing threat of hostile strike UAVs in Lozivskyi district (Kharkiv Oblast), Synelnykivskyi district (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), and Pavlohradskyi district (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). The Air Force of Ukraine also warns of hostile UAVs approaching Chernihiv from the northeast, urging citizens to stay in shelters. Furthermore, the Air Force of Ukraine has issued a threat warning for hostile strike UAVs in Lozivskyi district (Kharkiv Oblast), Synelnykivskyi district (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), and Pavlohradskyi district (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), indicating a multi-directional drone threat. UAF Air Force reports hostile UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Pavlohrad and Petropavlivka) and Kharkiv Oblast (Bliznyuky/Lozova). UAF Air Force reports KAB launches towards Kramatorsk and high-speed targets towards Kramatorsk. UAF Air Force reports hostile strike UAVs threatening Zhytomyr Oblast. STERNENKO (GUR MO) showcases "Barakuda" drones, including fixed-wing and quadcopters, conducting reconnaissance and targeting operations, potentially including engagements with Russian drones. ASTRA reports over 40 villages in Crimea are de-energized due to drone attacks, with a large smoke plume visible, indicating successful UAF drone strikes. Air Force of Ukraine reports rocket danger for Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Air Force of Ukraine has lifted the rocket threat for Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Kotsnews reports a series of strikes on Kramatorsk, implying continued missile or air attacks. Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Novopavlivka, Scherbaky, Mahdalynivka, Lukyanivske of Zaporizhzhia region, Antonivka of Kherson region, indicating widespread air support for ground operations. UAF Air Force reports ongoing hostile strike UAVs on Zhytomyr Oblast (northeast and west of Malyn), Chernihiv Oblast (towards Horodnia and Novhorod-Siverskyi), and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (towards Petropavlivka from southeast). UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RF tactical aviation on Donetsk region. RF MOD claims PVO forces shot down 12 Ukrainian UAVs over Crimea and one over the Black Sea between 080800Z and 081100Z SEP 25, indicating continued RF air defense activity. Colonelcassad has published a video "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine 07 September - 08 September 2025," showing bright luminous orbs and a large fire/explosion, implying continued deep strikes into Ukrainian territory. TASS reports RF MOD claims damage to an energy facility supporting the Ukrainian MIC and air defense radar stations. TASS also reports a video of an FPV drone strike by the 72nd Motor Rifle Brigade destroying a fuel and lubricants warehouse and UAF infantry in DPR (Konstantinovka). Fighterbomber video shows multiple Ka-52 'Alligator' attack helicopters operating in Ukrainian airspace. UAF Air Force reports a hostile UAV over Horodnia, Chernihiv Oblast. Colonelcassad publishes a video of a strike on the Trypilska TPP, including secondary explosions and fire, indicating a successful and impactful RF strike. UAF Air Force reports a hostile UAV south of Zaporizhzhia city. MoD Russia issues an official report on the progress of the special military operation, likely detailing recent successes (content not yet specified). UAF Air Force warns of hostile strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast (Chernihivskyi district), confirming continued RF aerial pressure in the north. "Alex Parker Returns" reports Slavyansk is completely de-energized and reiterates night strikes on Trypilska TPP, confirming continued deep strike effectiveness. "Военкор Котенок" reports powerful strikes on Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, indicating continued RF air/missile activity. "Воин DV" posts photo messages claiming the 35th Army downed two "Baba Yaga" and one "Lelka" drones on the Polohy direction. "Оперативний ЗСУ" and "РБК-Україна" confirm an Iskander cruise missile (9M727) struck the Cabinet of Ministers building in Kyiv, indicating a high-precision strike capability used against national C2. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України" reports a threat of hostile strike UAVs in Mykolaiv Oblast, and another in Chernihiv Oblast (Nizhynskyi district). An explosion has occurred near a military unit in Khabarovsk, Russia, which sources attribute to forces that committed war crimes in Kyiv Oblast (РБК-Україна). UAF Air Force reports a UAV threat for Priukskyi district, Chernihiv Oblast. Colonelcassad reports massive FAB strikes on Kramatorsk, targeting enemy locations and command posts. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України" reports a threat of hostile strike UAVs in Odesa Oblast, and another group of hostile UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast kursing towards Kyiv Oblast (Buchansky district). UAF Air Force also reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast (Shostkinsky district) and a reconnaissance UAV in eastern Kharkiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports an enemy UAV threat in Kyiv Oblast (Boryspil district, kursing southwest). TASS reports Putin connected to the BRICS online summit via video link from Sochi. UAF Air Force alert reports hostile strike UAVs entering Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, kursing southwest. UAF Air Force alert for Chernihiv on hostile UAVs. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has re-issued an "ATTENTION" alert. UAF Air Force reports hostile strike UAVs in eastern Bohodukhivskyi district, Kharkiv Oblast, kursing east/south. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RF tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. Air Force of Ukraine issues a ballistic missile threat from the east.
  • Information Operations (IO): RF IO is highly active, reinforcing internal cohesion (fundraising for paratroopers, Simonyan's health narrative, TASS on Cherkessk), projecting strength through military achievements (Su-35S delivery, "Anvar" special forces, Russian Air Force videos, "Сливочный каприз" showing Grad MLRS strike, first flight of SJ-100), and discrediting Ukraine (Mash on Donbas reporting UAF attacks on civilian targets in Donetsk, WarGonzo on UAF attacking school/park, TASS reporting school damage and civilian injuries in Donetsk, Операция Z on UAF attacking "Gulliver" park). RF milbloggers are consistently providing real-time updates and combat footage for propaganda effect, including Rybar's operational maps. Colonelcassad amplifies claims of UAF drone strikes on school No. 20 in Donetsk, presenting photos of damage. TASS reports Pushilin's claim of six residential houses and a school damaged in UAF attacks. Операция Z/Военкоры Русской Весны disseminate a video of Zelenskyy's statements on victory, framing it to mock Ukraine's position and undermine morale. Colonelcassad posts video alleging UAF losses near Krasnoarmiisk as further propaganda. Полиция Хабаровского края publishes a recruitment video, portraying domestic stability and employment opportunities. Операция Z/Военкоры Русской Весны are actively circulating videos of explosions and damage at the Trypilska TPP to highlight RF strike capabilities and perceived Ukrainian vulnerabilities. TASS publishes a video featuring Sergey Mironov proposing quarterly pension indexation and pre-New Year payments, a domestic IO effort. TASS quotes Dmitry Peskov stating more countries understand Russia's position on Ukraine, a diplomatic IO effort. TASS reports Donald Trump is dissatisfied with the situation in Ukraine but confident the conflict will be resolved. Colonelcassad posts video depicting aerial combat over Chasiv Yar with RF VDV UAVs destroying UAF drones, with a "truth or fiction" caption, a direct IO effort to create uncertainty and project RF air superiority. Операция Z/Военкоры Русской Весны are actively circulating videos of a Russian public figure (Shaman) reportedly gifting a political party to Mizulina for her birthday and another public figure (Creed) participating in a religious procession in Moscow, framed against the backdrop of the 'SMO', aiming to project domestic unity and a sense of normalcy despite ongoing conflict. TASS continues to report on parallel import volumes to project economic resilience. RF reports on captured UAF soldiers being disoriented and unable to find their way back to positions, a psychological operation. Операция Z/Военкоры Русской Весны highlight Trump's statements about talking to Putin and European leaders visiting the US to discuss Ukraine. TASS publishes a new video featuring a captured Ukrainian soldier claiming UAF uses school buses to transport mobilized personnel, a direct IO attempt to discredit UAF and dehumanize its forces. Слуцкий's proposal for expanding targeted education for teachers (TASS) contributes to RF's narrative of domestic stability and progress. TASS now reports on a second humanitarian aid flight to Afghanistan, projecting Russia's role as a global humanitarian actor. Domestically, a high-profile corruption case involving former Deputy Head of Rosprirodnadzor, Oleg Mitvol, saw his appeal for pardon denied. This signals an ongoing internal focus on anti-corruption efforts within Russia, likely for internal political messaging to maintain public trust. Ukrainian resources publish a dynamic map of battles near Pokrovsk for August, allegedly refuting Commander-in-Chief Syrsky's claims of significant UAF success. Large-scale electricity disruptions have occurred in Kyiv Oblast. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has issued an "Attention" alert. RF MOD claims "North" group fighters destroyed UAF cluster points in Sumy Oblast, indicating active ground and/or air engagement in the region. TASS reports RF MOD is seeking to recover over 40 million rubles from Russian Railways (RZhD) in a series of new lawsuits. Colonelcassad has posted a series of photo messages. While the captions are currently blank, previous patterns suggest these are likely combat footage or imagery intended for propaganda purposes, potentially documenting alleged UAF losses or RF successes. Dmitry Peskov, in an interview at the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF), stated that "rabid European militarism makes it more difficult to settle the situation in Ukraine." The RF milblogger НгП раZVедка commented that "If Ukrainian media did not exist, it would be necessary to invent them," implying the utility of Ukrainian media for RF information operations. TASS reports that military expert Andrey Marochko stated that UAF losses in battles near Luhansk over the past week amounted to 4.3 thousand soldiers and foreign mercenaries. A propaganda poster from "Триколор" 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» features a Russian military figure with the caption "Russia is a country of heroes!" This is a direct domestic IO effort. TASS reports a 9.4% decrease in trade between China and RF in Jan-Aug, to $143.76 billion. TASS reports a Moscow court suspended a restaurant's operations for three months due to E. coli. TASS also reports that RF FPV drones have almost entirely disrupted UAF communications in Kharkiv Oblast. 'Два майора' posted a propaganda video with Wagner Group imagery, glorifying their actions and projecting power and determination. Colonelcassad posted photos of captured US Bradley IFV and French VAB APC, explicitly for a "trophy museum" from Kursk Oblast, clearly an IO effort to show Western equipment losses and RF success. TASS report on Mironov's proposal to temporarily rename St. Petersburg to Leningrad on holidays represents an adaptation in domestic IO, leveraging historical nostalgia to strengthen national identity and resolve. TASS also reports on elections for a new LDP head in Japan on 4 October, potentially influencing geopolitical discourse. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) publishes narratives and imagery claiming RF advances into Sosnivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, an IO effort to project RF military success. WarGonzo publishes a series of photo messages providing front line summaries for morning 08 SEP, including tactical maps for Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Donetsk regions. This continues RF's real-time battlefield reporting for propaganda. Basurin claims 6 people (including 3 minors) were injured in a drone attack on "Gulliver" park in Donetsk, further amplifying RF's narrative of UAF targeting civilians. Fighterbomber publishes a video discussing military concepts and commanders, continuing to influence military discourse and morale. Poddubny posts photo messages alleging American mercenaries continue to arrive in Ukraine, reinforcing the narrative of foreign intervention and proxy conflict. Operatsia Z (Voenkory Russkoy Vesny) reports Venezuela is mobilizing 25,000 troops, claiming this as an external development. TASS reports LA police ceased guarding Kamala Harris after public outrage. TASS reports first criminal case for providing card data to fraudsters in Krasnoyarsk Krai (16-year-old schoolgirl). TASS reports EU Commission may present 19th package of anti-Russian sanctions this week. TASS reports videos of alleged executions of civilian vehicles by UAF from captured phones. 'Два майора' posts about Belgorod Oblast information restrictions. Военкор Котенок recommends subscribing to his information channel "Segodnya.Ru". Janus Putkonen (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) shares video of empty retail outlets and a supermarket in Finland, likely an IO effort to project economic woes in the West. Военкор Котенок posts about the head of the Azerbaijani diaspora in Ivanovo Oblast running for election on the 'United Russia' list, a domestic IO effort to showcase national unity and integration. Mash на Донбассе reports on the "velvet season" and appealing beaches in the Azov and Black Seas, promoting normalcy and tourism in occupied areas. TASS reports on potential parameters for preferential mortgages in RF by late autumn, a domestic IO effort to project economic stability. TASS reports Putin submitted a bill to the State Duma on denouncing the European Convention for the Prevention of Torture. TASS reports bloggers Chekalins are charged with transferring currency abroad using forged documents, an internal anti-corruption or political messaging effort. Оперативний ЗСУ claims GUR cyber specialists accessed Russian fuel card servers, a UAF IO success story. Два майора promotes their channel on MAX.RU, an internal IO/reach expansion effort. WarGonzo posts a video "Liberation then and now: Donbas remembers its heroes," blending historical and current narratives for patriotic effect. STERNENKO posts "Not time for rest. Time for rusorez!", a UAF morale booster. Два майора posts a video claiming Russian UAVs attacked Trypilska TPP overnight, confirming and amplifying RF strike claims. Kotsnews posts a video of Iskander strikes on Kryvyi Rih. Новости Москвы reports 10% of Russians use modern slang, indicating an attempt to show normalcy or discuss cultural trends. ТАСС reports on the gift of an exclusive phone to hockey player Ovechkin, a domestic IO effort to highlight normalcy and celebration. ASTRA reports SBU has declared Russian rapper Timati wanted, a Ukrainian IO success. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares a photo of a zinc coffin found in Kuzbass, likely a domestic IO effort to highlight the human cost of war. ТАСС reports FSB detained an Azerbaijani citizen in Stavropol Krai for preparing terrorist attacks, aiming to demonstrate internal security capabilities. Colonelcassad provides updated map changes for the past day. TASS reports singer Lada Dance has accumulated debts, including for utilities and traffic fines, which is being highlighted by state media. TASS has also released a video of the detained Azerbaijani citizen pledging allegiance to a Ukrainian liberation battalion, following a report by Colonelcassad on his detention for planning terrorist attacks in Russia under Ukrainian guidance. Kotsnews (Kots) is promoting a narrative that Yekaterinburg is a "rear-area forge of Victory," aiming to boost domestic morale and emphasize industrial support for the war effort. TASS publishes a column by Dmitry Medvedev titled "New Finnish Doctrine: Stupidity, Lies, Ingratitude," claiming Helsinki is preparing for war and a possible attack on Russia. TASS announces a Russian court has banned Wintershall Dea from suing RF abroad and imposed a €7.5 billion penalty for violation. Basurin reports a journalist investigating fortification corruption was found dead in Sumy. Politico reports that Western observers will analyze the "Zapad-2025" exercises to assess Russian combat readiness. STERNENKO (GUR MO) showcases "Barakuda" drones effectively destroying Russian drones and military equipment. Rybar provides a tactical map for "wintering in the south," potentially indicating troop movements. НгП раZVедка reports on the results of night strikes. TASS announces a second updated Tu-214 aircraft has joined Red Wings, with flights planned to Georgia and Israel. ASTRA reports a bus shooting in Jerusalem with at least 15 injured. Военкор Котенок (Военкор Котенок) features a pro-Kremlin election video for an Azerbaijani diaspora leader in Ivanovo Oblast. TASS announces the Kremlin has launched an official channel for the President of RF on the national messenger Max. SBU has revealed new details about a "mole" in NABU, highlighting an FSB agent network targeting Ukraine, including former SBU employees and a National Guard serviceman. The General Staff of Ukraine (ZSU) is promoting Special Operations Forces (SSO) qualification courses. Народная милиция ДНР posts a video claiming destruction of UAF infantry and positions in the Vladimirovka area. RF FSB has detained a Ukrainian saboteur in Stavropol, allegedly a former Azerbaijani special forces member, who confessed to espionage activities. UAF Air Force reports hostile UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Pavlohrad and Petropavlivka) and Kharkiv Oblast (Bliznyuky/Lozova). UAF Air Force reports KAB launches towards Kramatorsk. UAF Air Force reports high-speed targets towards Kramatorsk. UAF Air Force reports hostile strike UAVs threatening Zhytomyr Oblast. STERNENKO reports the acquisition of +450 FPV drones, including 40 Shahed interceptors, in the last two days. TASS reports advice from the Ministry of Internal Affairs on Telegram account security. Два майора highlights unsold new housing in St. Petersburg. Liveuamap Source reports on recent clashes in South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv), Kupyansk, Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv directions, and that UAF repelled 9 RF assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions. Air Force of Ukraine reports rocket danger for Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Kotsnews reports a series of strikes on Kramatorsk. UAF reports RF attacked Dobropillia (Donetsk Oblast) at 080400Z SEP 25, causing significant destruction to a multi-story residential building. Colonelcassad has published a "Chronicle of strikes on the territory of Ukraine 07 September - 08 September 2025," which includes video of fires/explosions in Kyiv. RF MOD claims PVO forces shot down 12 Ukrainian UAVs over Crimea and one over the Black Sea between 080800Z and 081100Z SEP 25. UAF "Revenge" brigade of the State Border Guard Service claims to have captured more RF prisoners. "Shadow" unit has released drone footage of a successful strike on RF trenches. MoD Russia video claims a Kub loitering munition (1st Guards Tank Army, Zapad Group of Forces) destroyed a camouflaged self-propelled artillery system and manpower in Kharkiv region. RF military blogger "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims at least 92 US mercenaries have been eliminated in the SMO zone. Операция Z reports enemy attacks on Enerhodar, with PVO and EW actively countering UAVs. "Два майора" reports an internal security incident at the FSB regional directorate in Magadan, involving Molotov cocktails and chemical agents. TASS features Sergey Lavrov stating "marginal characters in the West" seek to dismember Russia, a direct IO effort. "Сливочный каприз" publishes a graphic showing the "Pace of Offensive Operation of the Russian Armed Forces in the SMO Zone," claiming daily advances, for IO purposes. WarGonzo publishes a video portraying civilian suffering due to drone and artillery attacks. Alex Parker Returns releases videos with Russian diplomats in China, framing cultural exchanges. Alex Parker Returns also posts a photo message showing an alleged promotional car giveaway, which is likely a distraction or domestic IO. Colonelcassad highlights Putin's proposal to denounce the European Convention for the Prevention of Torture. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a photo message on the Konstantinovka direction, implying RF activity. "Z комитет + карта СВО" posts photo messages claiming advances at Kolodezi (Lyman direction) with maps. "Басурин о главном" announces a new episode of his program. Alex Parker Returns posts an image of a promotional car giveaway. Kotsnews publishes a video featuring an individual questioning the Bucha massacre narrative, likely for RF IO. Fighterbomber releases a video showcasing Ka-52 attack helicopters. "Два майора" claims Kyiv allocated 500 million UAH (USD 12 million) for emergency mobilization, implying UAF financial strain. "Воин DV" comments on Zelenskyy's constant re-interpretation of "Ukrainian victory," framing it for RF IO. "Два майора" highlights China increasing LNG purchases from Russia, citing Bloomberg, for IO purposes. TASS reports lifelong blocking of fraudsters' accounts on Max messenger, for internal security IO. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reports on the Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief's "anti-crisis" statement regarding stabilizing the front despite RF superiority, framing it for RF IO. "Операция Z" posts a video of Lavrov's speech criticizing the West and promoting Eurasian cooperation, for RF IO. "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" reports a soldier declared a "deserter" a year after his death, implying internal issues within Ukraine. "Старше Эдды" comments on competent police work, likely praising Russian authorities. "Народная милиция ДНР" shares a video about humanitarian aid to soldiers from Chelyabinsk, for morale and domestic IO. "Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"" posts a video of Lavrov with cultural artifacts, framed with humor. "Старше Эдды" mocks Zelenskyy's statement on Ukrainian victory, amplifying RF counter-narratives. TASS reports the Moscow City Court upheld a decision to return an apartment to Larisa Dolina after a phone fraud incident, an internal Russian legal matter. Colonelcassad reports finding wreckage of a UAF "Lord" UAV with Starlink on the Azov Sea coast, used to highlight UAF technical capabilities and Western support. TASS reports German investigators believe Zaluzhny ordered the Nord Stream explosions (Welt via Операция Z, TASS). The Office of the Prosecutor General reports a successful operation against an organized criminal group in Ivano-Frankivsk region. "Два майора" posts images of "soldier's everyday life," likely for morale. TASS reports on US business readiness to return to Russia after political settlement, an RF IO effort to project economic resilience and attract investment. "Басурин о главном" shares a video promoting "USSR principles" and Russian military hardware, a direct IO effort to promote nationalistic ideology and military strength. "Операция Z" posts an image about EU purchasing €1.2 bln of metals from Russia, aiming to show sanctions ineffectiveness. "Рыбарь" posts about "more threat to the US" (Нужно больше угрозы Штатам), indicating a continued aggressive IO posture. TASS reports Russia has put Lithuanian journalist Eldoradas Butrimas on a wanted list for criminal charges, framing an external threat. "Alex Parker Returns" amplifies a narrative of Spain introducing sanctions against Israel, and Israel sanctioning Spain, linking it to the Jerusalem attacks and historical anti-semitism, to sow discord and distract from Ukraine. "Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат»" shares videos of Akhmat special forces at the front, demonstrating their presence and projecting strength. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts a symbolic image about aviation development, likely promoting Russian military aviation. "AV БогомаZ" posts photo messages of a memorial site, likely for fallen soldiers or law enforcement, possibly for internal morale or public relations. "Alex Parker Returns" posts a social media screenshot mocking a "relocant" from Moscow in New York, aiming to project a sense of insecurity in the West compared to Russia for domestic consumption. "Colonelcassad" posts a video of Viktor Orbán discussing Ukraine's partition into three parts (Russian, demilitarized, Western), which RF will amplify to project a favorable future outcome for its interests. "ТАСС" reports a NYT article claiming at least 92 American mercenaries eliminated in Ukraine, an RF IO effort to denigrate Western support. "Басурин о главном" publishes a video claiming Azerbaijani standards demonstrate "continuous hatred and a threat to Russia's security," indicating an escalation of RF IO against Azerbaijan. Janus Putkonen (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) continues to push narratives portraying Finland as a "Hitler satellite state" and threatening its statehood if it continues to "attack Russia," escalating inflammatory rhetoric against a NATO member. TASS reports Zakharova stating Kyiv purposefully struck children and their parents in Donetsk's Gulliver Park. TASS states RF reserves the right to respond. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports now being on MAX messenger. TASS reports Putin participated in the BRICS online summit. Поддубный reports EU special representative on sanctions arrived in Washington for talks on strengthening sanctions against Russia. Alex Parker Returns features a video of Umar Kremlev and Egor Krid at a religious procession, which is a domestic IO effort to portray unity and tradition within Russia. "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports that RF threatens Ukraine with a "response" to yesterday's attack on occupied Donetsk, amplifying RF's aggressive posture. "Операция Z" reports China is opening access to its capital market for Russia, citing the Financial Times, a significant IO effort to demonstrate economic resilience and international support. TASS reports X5 Group has resumed purchases of Mars confectionery products, indicating a return to some international trade. Kotsnews reports a video titled "Azerbaijani swore to blow up Russians," which likely aims to dehumanize a captured individual and portray Ukraine as supported by "terrorists." НгП раZVедка reports on "Valerka Potuzhny" being accused of undermining Nord Stream, which is an IO effort to deflect blame from RF. Colonelcassad reports over 90 Americans killed in Ukraine, claiming US provides no assistance, another IO effort to denigrate Western support. Alex Parker Returns shares a video featuring Arestovich making negative comments about Ukrainian education and leadership, which is likely used by RF to sow internal discord and delegitimize Ukrainian authorities. "Новости Москвы" shares a video showcasing a modern cafeteria at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, aimed at projecting normalcy and quality of life in Russia. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА" posts a video with tactical footage in a forested area, overlaid with propaganda, aiming to project RF combat effectiveness. TASS reports that Dmitry Peskov (Kremlin spokesperson) stated Putin's speech at the BRICS summit will not be open to media, and a brief statement will be released after the closed event, indicating controlled information release for a key diplomatic event. TASS reports on Russian police establishing identities of teenagers who abused an elderly woman in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, a domestic IO effort to showcase law enforcement effectiveness. Colonelcassad posts photo messages about a monument to Stalin unveiled in Murmansk, an internal IO effort to evoke Soviet-era nostalgia and reinforce nationalistic sentiment. TASS column by Medvedev directly implicates the EU in "heating up the idea" of Finland severing parts of RF territory, signaling an escalation of RF anti-EU and anti-Finnish rhetoric. Colonelcassad reports the 70th birthday of the RF Chief of General Staff, likely Gerasimov, used for internal morale and demonstrating continuity of command. Alex Parker Returns posts photo of a police car with lights on, captioned about obtaining driving licenses, likely a domestic Russian police/traffic-related update. Colonelcassad reports former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba fled to Poland after a Kyiv decision to ban former diplomats from leaving, an RF IO narrative to highlight perceived internal Ukrainian political instability. Два майора reports Azerbaijani diaspora leader Mamedov withdrew from elections in Ivanovo, Russia, a domestic political development. TASS reports Medvedev's claim that unfriendly states may deliberately introduce dangerous plants and microorganisms into RF, escalating biological warfare rhetoric. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 supports "Майоры" channel (Два майора) in their "truth-telling" efforts. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts images claiming "slutty bots are attacking", a likely reference to online counter-propaganda or cyber attacks. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) shares a video of a Ukrainian Rada deputy discussing "self-will" (desertion) among Ukrainian soldiers, aiming to demoralize UAF. Colonelcassad reports on the detention of a Moldovan border police chief accused of kidnapping Ukrainian migrants and returning them to Ukraine for money, an RF IO effort to expose alleged corruption and complicity in forced mobilization. ASTRA reports the death of a 2007-born contract soldier in Ukraine, possibly for internal RF IO to highlight sacrifice or subtly question recruitment age. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video allegedly showing Geran UAVs striking UAF repair facilities in Kremenchuk, demonstrating continued RF deep strike capabilities and IO amplification. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) states that Kyiv, Odesa, and other Ukrainian cities could be without heating this winter due to attacks, a clear RF psychological operation. TASS warns of scammers using fake police numbers, a domestic IO effort. Оперативний ЗСУ dismisses Putin's statement on Ukraine joining the EU as "pissing in the ears to please Trump," a direct counter-IO. MoD Russia releases a video of a Russian serviceman expressing disillusionment and questioning his role as an "assault trooper," which is highly unusual and contradicts typical RF propaganda, potentially indicating internal morale issues or a new, subtle IO tactic aimed at external audiences. STERNENKO prompts followers for donations for "rusorez" (Russian cutting), a morale booster and fundraising effort. TASS reports on UAF attempting to attack Donetsk with UAVs, causing smoke in the city center, which is a direct IO effort to portray UAF aggression. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports that the Russian army has formed a unit of severely ill soldiers (hepatitis, tuberculosis, HIV, oncology) who will be used in infantry assaults as "cannon fodder," which is a highly inflammatory and dehumanizing IO effort by Ukraine. Рыбарь posts a propaganda image about "Gripen for so-called Ukraine," an RF IO effort to mock Western military aid. РБК-Україна reports that Germany has extended its management of Rosneft assets for another six months, which is a counter-IO to RF's economic narratives. РБК-Україна also reports that IAEA Head Grossi states 6 out of 7 pillars of nuclear safety at the Zaporizhzhia NPP have been violated, a clear IO effort to highlight the dangers of RF occupation. Mash na Donbasse reports on UAF shelling Donetsk, Yenakievo, and Makeevka, reinforcing the narrative of Ukrainian aggression. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС releases a video of a woman complaining about fuel shortages and ration cards, which is an IO effort to highlight domestic economic problems within Russia. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports on UAF drone attacks on Donetsk, with some drones bypassing air defense, leading to ground consequences, reinforcing the narrative of ongoing Ukrainian aggression and local damage. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts a video about planting a tree in Makhachkala in honor of soldiers missing or killed in unit №29760, 25th Assault Brigade, an internal RF IO effort to commemorate fallen soldiers and maintain morale. WarGonzo posts a photo message about the moon rising before twilight near the Makeevka mine "Kholodna Balka," a non-military, domestic commentary. Zelenskiy delivers a video address discussing a Staff meeting focused on technological issues, air defense, drone production, and front-line situation in Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia, with constant Russian strikes on Kherson and active actions in Sumy border regions, a comprehensive UAF IO effort to provide updates and boost morale.
• Other: Germany launches large-scale civil defense modernization until 2029. Bundeswehr conducts exercises to transfer troops from Germany to Lithuania. Colonelcassad posts photos related to the Bundeswehr exercises in Lithuania. TASS reports founder of Blackwater Eric Prince is interested in buying Ukrainian drone companies, suggesting Western commercial interest in Ukrainian defense industry. Donald Trump's potential visit to South Korea to meet Xi Jinping and possibly Kim Jong Un (CNN, Оперативний ЗСУ) indicates significant diplomatic activity by a key international actor. РБК-Україна reports a brief radiation hazard warning in Kropyvnytskyi. ASTRA reports a ban on filming drone operations and air defense work in Krasnodar Krai. TASS reports Carlos Alcaraz leading ATP rankings. TASS reports a pleasure boat "Charodeyka" collided with the Belinsky Bridge in St. Petersburg. TASS reports Donald Trump states European leaders will arrive in the US early next week to discuss a deal on Ukraine. TASS also reports Trump expects to speak with Putin in the coming days. TASS reports an online BRICS summit will begin at 15:00 MSK on 8 SEP. РБК-Україна highlights Donald Trump's statement that leaders of several European countries will visit the US early this week to discuss ways to resolve the war in Ukraine. Large-scale electricity disruptions have occurred in Kyiv Oblast, according to local media. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has issued an "Attention" alert. TASS reports China has imposed sanctions on Japanese Senator Hei Seki for "anti-Chinese actions," indicating a wider geopolitical maneuvering in East Asia that could indirectly impact resource allocation or diplomatic focus. The temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure at Kaluga airport have been lifted, as reported by Rosaviatsiya. TASS reports that "Natsproektstroy" has commenced construction work on the Moscow — St. Petersburg high-speed rail section, with Vice Prime Minister Vitaly Savelyev confirming that approximately 6,000 builders and 2,000 units of construction equipment are involved. Полиция Хабаровского края reports that telephone fraudsters convinced two Khabarovsk residents to transfer over 5 million rubles. TASS reports a 9.4% decrease in trade between China and RF in Jan-Aug to $143.76 billion. TASS also reports a Moscow court suspended a restaurant's operations for three months due to E. coli. TASS reports one individual has been apprehended after escaping a detention center in Yekaterinburg. TASS reports that elections for a new head of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan are planned for 4 October, a significant political development in a key US ally. Colonelcassad posts "Important information about the channel's work and our bots," which likely pertains to channel management or potential issues. RBK-Ukraina publishes a summary of the night's main news (photo message), indicating continued rapid information dissemination. Zaporizhzhia OVA provides a video report on the difficult night from 5 to 6 SEP, detailing civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure, aiming to raise awareness and support. ASTRA reports one of the escapees from SIZO in Sverdlovsk Oblast was detained, showcasing domestic law enforcement actions. Poddubny posts a photo message stating "American mercenaries continue to arrive in Ukraine," which is a recurring RF narrative. Operatsia Z reports Venezuela is mobilizing 25,000 troops (with photo message from Voenkory Русской Весны), diverting attention to other global conflicts. ASTRA reports a third fatality has been recovered from under the rubble in Kyiv. TASS reports an EU delegation will visit Washington to discuss sanctions against RF. РБК-Україна publishes an article on "Zoomers" and "Millennials" in Ukraine, a non-military piece reflecting broader societal issues. TASS reports FSB detained an Azerbaijani citizen in Stavropol Krai for preparing terrorist attacks. РБК-Україна reports the EU is preparing a new blow to Russian finances and oil, according to Bloomberg, signaling upcoming sanctions. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS has retweeted a Bloomberg report that an EU delegation will go to Washington to discuss new sanctions against Russia. ASTRA reports a criminal case has been opened in Russia for the first time "for providing card data to fraudsters," with a schoolgirl as the accused. TASS reports that Roman Abramovich faces no charges or criminal proceedings on Jersey Island, according to his representative, likely a response to previous legal scrutiny. TASS reports a Russian court banned Wintershall Dea from suing RF abroad and imposed a €7.5 billion penalty for violation. Dmitry Medvedev publishes a column claiming Helsinki is preparing for war and a possible attack on Russia. Basurin reports a journalist investigating fortification corruption found dead in Sumy. Politico reports that Western observers will analyze the "Zapad-2025" exercises to assess Russian combat readiness. STERNENKO (GUR MO) showcases "Barakuda" drones effectively destroying Russian drones and military equipment. Rybar provides a tactical map for "wintering in the south." НгП раZVедка reports on the results of night strikes. TASS announces a second updated Tu-214 aircraft has joined Red Wings, with flights planned to Georgia and Israel. ASTRA reports a bus shooting in Jerusalem with at least 15 injured. Военкор Котенок (Военкор Котенок) features a pro-Kremlin election video for an Azerbaijani diaspora leader in Ivanovo Oblast. TASS announces the Kremlin has launched an official channel for the President of RF on the national messenger Max. SBU has revealed new details about a "mole" in NABU, highlighting an FSB agent network targeting Ukraine, including former SBU employees and a National Guard serviceman. The General Staff of Ukraine (ZSU) is promoting Special Operations Forces (SSO) qualification courses. TASS reports advice from the Ministry of Internal Affairs on Telegram account security. Два майора highlights unsold new housing in St. Petersburg. Basurin o glavnom states "There is nothing new, there is well-forgotten old." TASS reports a judge of the Arbitration Court of the East Siberian District is missing in Irkutsk. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts a video about forced passportization in occupied territories, threatening deportation after September 10 for those without Russian passports. Оперативний ЗСУ quotes Medvedev claiming Finland is preparing for war. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts videos showing aftermath of explosions in Donetsk park, with debris, damaged buildings, and bloodstains, alleging UAF attacked the park where children were present. Новости Москвы reports mushroom pickers collected 13.5 kg of mushrooms in 3 hours in Sergiev Posad district forests, aiming to project normalcy. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports the first resident of Buryatia born in 2007 died in the war, showing a formal portrait of a young man in military uniform. Старше Эдды comments on German automotive industry "literally charging for everything," including wheels and steering wheel, likely an economic critique. TASS reports Prosecutor General filed a lawsuit against ex-Deputy Minister of Energy Svetlitsky, accusing him of mismanaging Vodokanal property. Alex Parker Returns quotes Sergey Lavrov stating Russia is not seeking revenge and is open to cooperation with former Western partners. Два майора posts a photo message claiming "demilitarization of UAF continues due to the imposition of various gender advisors," likely a derogatory IO effort. Операция Z quotes Orban stating Ukraine will be divided into three zones after the conflict: Russian, demilitarized, and Western. TASS reports the death toll from the Jerusalem bus shooting has risen to five. Alex Parker Returns posts about a 15-year-old girl killed in a traffic accident in Melitopol. Alex Parker Returns also includes a photo of an empty promotional image for a car giveaway. "Север.Реалии" reports that Ilya Yashin, an opposition politician, discovered an Interior Ministry certificate declaring him stateless, though his passport is still valid. TASS reports state prosecution requests 9 years 9 months in prison for defendants in the "Mister Cider" poisoning case. "Филолог в засаде" mentions "Дроннице-2025" (Drone-2025), possibly an event or a concept related to drone warfare, without further details. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the US is demanding the EU stop purchasing Russian gas as a condition for new sanctions against Putin (FT source). TASS reports the Moscow City Court upheld the decision to return an apartment to Larisa Dolina after phone fraud. ASTRA reports the death toll in Jerusalem has increased to six. TASS reports that large and small US businesses are ready to return to Russia after political issues are resolved, which is an an RF IO message. "Alex Parker Returns" reports military patrols in Brussels due to increased gang violence, portraying Western instability. "Colonelcassad" reports Jerusalem terrorist attack casualties (4 dead, 20 wounded), with assailants killed. "ТАСС" reports the RF Prosecutor General, Igor Krasnov, may be recommended for the position of Head of the Supreme Court on September 15. "Филолог в засаде" reports a lecture by Yuri Yevich in Moscow on September 13. "Новости Москвы" reports a study linking porn viewing to negative relationship impacts (non-military). "Операция Z" reports calls in Czechia to deprive Ukrainian refugees of residency rights, which is an RF IO effort to sow discord among Western allies. "Рыбарь" mentions US media reports on Hezbollah money laundering through the Middle East, a broader geopolitical narrative. "Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація" reports children from occupied Dniprorudne resting in Kyiv Oblast, a humanitarian support initiative. "Два майора" posts a video titled "Zaporizhzhia Front" showing a first-person perspective from inside an armored vehicle, likely a tank, which is internal military content for morale/information. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts a video of a medic setting up a medical room, likely for morale/humanitarian purposes. TASS reports that Latvia intends to introduce national sanctions against individuals and companies associated with the SMO, indicating continued international diplomatic and economic pressure on Russia. The "Офіс Генерального прокурора" reports on an investigation in Dnipro uncovering a group supplying agricultural products to Russia, with 37 searches and 7 detentions, demonstrating Ukraine's internal security efforts to counter economic collaboration with the aggressor. TASS reports Rosnedra Head Oleg Kazanov claims Russia has enough oil. TASS reports Aeroflot plans to sign firm contracts for 90 MC-21 aircraft by year-end. Colonelcassad reports that the "UVB-76" radio station, also known as "The Buzzer," has come online, which is significant as it is a long-standing, mysterious shortwave radio station thought to be part of a Russian command-and-control system for strategic forces, potentially signaling a change in alert status or communication protocols. ASTRA reports the death of political prisoner Andrei Podnebenny with Russian citizenship in a Belarusian colony, which could have implications for human rights and international relations. "Север.Реалии" reports the decapitated body of a company director with Dutch and and Cypriot ownership found near Kaliningrad, indicating a potential internal security or criminal event within RF territory. Colonelcassad reports the BRICS online summit has started, indicating continued RF diplomatic engagement with non-Western partners. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація posts an "ATTENTION" alert, indicating a current threat or significant development in the region requiring public awareness. "Alex Parker Returns" is actively seeking "PC users," which could be related to cyber operations or information warfare. TASS reports on Putin's participation in the BRICS online summit via video link from Sochi. Mash na Donbasse reports a grocery store owner attempted to sell drugs at the Central Market in Luhansk, indicating internal law enforcement issues in occupied territories. Rybar (RF) reports that Erik Prince, founder of Blackwater, is interested in buying Ukrainian drone companies, suggesting continued Western commercial interest in the Ukrainian defense sector. Politico reports that Scott Bessent threatened to hit the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency during dinner with US administration members, an internal US political/economic note. RF TASS report notes that "New People" Duma deputies propose automatic bank account unblocking after debt payment, a domestic policy proposal. Alex Parker Returns posts photo of a police car with lights on, captioned about obtaining driving licenses, likely a domestic Russian police/traffic-related update. Colonelcassad reports former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba fled to Poland after a Kyiv decision to ban former diplomats from leaving, an RF IO narrative to highlight perceived internal Ukrainian political instability. Два майора reports Azerbaijani diaspora leader Mamedov withdrew from elections in Ivanovo, Russia, a domestic political development. Новости Москвы video shows a passenger causing discontent by standing on the left side of an escalator, a non-military, domestic social commentary. Басурин о главном posts a video of a patriotic concert with military-themed imagery and lyrics, serving as domestic IO to boost morale and nationalistic sentiment. Colonelcassad posts a video depicting the detention of an individual by Russian police in St. Petersburg, framing it as an arrest of "arrogant guests from Azerbaijan" and an instance of law enforcement in action. ASTRA reports that commission members are wearing body armor and helmets during early elections in Belgorod Oblast, implying a heightened security environment.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (Confidence: HIGH)

• Capabilities:
  • Sustained Ground Offensive with Massed Forces: RF demonstrates the capability for sustained, multi-axis ground offensives, with a primary effort on the Pokrovsk axis where they aim for a "decisive breakthrough." They can concentrate experienced units (marine infantry, "Somali" battalion, 103rd Regiment, "Anvar" special forces, evidence of Naval Infantry, Akhmat special forces) and conduct localized advances, as evidenced by claims in Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts (Khoroshe, Sosnivka, Sofiyivka) and the Serebryansk forest, and reaching Myrnohrad's approaches. Continued pressure near Krasnoarmiisk demonstrates the capability for localized ground and air-supported engagements. RF VDV UAV units are demonstrating counter-drone capabilities over Chasiv Yar using aerial ramming tactics, indicating an adaptation in air-to-air drone engagements. RF is also deploying Orlan-10 drones as carriers for FPV drones, extending FPV operational range. TASS video showing a captured Ukrainian soldier implies RF's capability to capture and exploit UAF personnel for intelligence and propaganda. RF MOD claims "North" group fighters destroyed UAF cluster points in Sumy Oblast, demonstrating continued localized ground engagement and destructive capability. RF special forces 'Anvar' demonstrate capability to conduct deep strikes on UAF logistics (fuel stations in Chernihiv Oblast). RF claims capture of Western military equipment (Bradley IFV, VAB APC) in Kursk Oblast, indicating capability for cross-border operations or successful engagements against UAF in border areas. RF's ability to mine residential areas in Kherson demonstrates a capability for tactical-level denial and area control, potentially designed to impede UAF counter-offensives or civilian return. WarGonzo's latest front-line maps indicate RF's continued capability to maintain active military presence and conduct operations across multiple fronts, including Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Donetsk. Colonelcassad's latest video provides insight into RF motorized rifle company tactics, emphasizing small-unit operations, fortification, and thorough reconnaissance, demonstrating continued ground combat capabilities and doctrinal adherence. Воин DV's video compilation of drone strikes on UAF infantry. Два майора are fundraising for assault troops on the Sumy direction, suggesting ongoing or planned ground offensive capabilities in that region. Архангел Спецназа reports RF surveillance activities in a forested area, with heat signatures detected, suggesting reconnaissance or target acquisition. MoD Russia has released a video showcasing Grad MLRS crews of the 44th Army Corps (Sever Group of Forces) eliminating camouflaged AFU positions and manpower clusters in Sumy region, indicating continued direct fire support for ground operations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of a military convoy moving along a rural road, indicating organized RF ground movement. Воин DV reports "Boston partisans" (69th Brigade) are conducting assault actions on the Vremevka direction, using FPV drones and TM mines against enemy dugouts and personnel, indicating active ground operations with combined arms. Народная милиция ДНР posts a video claiming destruction of UAF infantry and positions in the Vladimirovka area, using drone footage, confirming offensive operations. RF FSB has detained a Ukrainian saboteur in Stavropol, allegedly a former Azerbaijani special forces member, who confessed to espionage activities. Воин DV posts a video showing fighters of the 25th Army operating on the Krasnolimansky direction, confirming continued military presence and engagement in that area. Liveuamap Source reports RF conducted airstrikes at Novopavlivka, Scherbaky, Mahdalynivka, Lukyanivske of Zaporizhzhia region, Antonivka of Kherson region. Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Ambarne and Kamyanka (South Slobozhansky/Kharkiv direction); Kupyansk and towards Pischane (Kupyansk direction); Karpivka, Hrekivka, Serednye and towards Drobysheve, Shandryholove, Derylove (Lyman direction); Serebryanka, Hryhorivka and towards Yampil and Siversk (Sieversk direction); Markove, Orikhovo-Vasylivka and towards Stupochky and Minkivka (Kramatorsk direction); Poltavka, Scherbynivka and towards Pleschiyivka (Toretsk direction); Shakhove, Vilne, Kotlyne, Novopidhorodnye, Novoekonomichne, Rodynske, Myrolubivka, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Promin, Lysivka, Udachne, Dachne, Novoukrayinka and towards Novopavlivka (Pokrovsk direction); Komyshuvakha, Zelenyi Hai, Obratne, Olhivske, Oleksandrohrad and towards Ivanivka, Sosnivka, Filiya (Novopavlivka direction); Plavni and towards Mala Tokmachka, Stepnohirsk and Novodanylivka (Orikhiv direction). "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" video showcasing a Russian paratrooper detailing combat experiences and intelligence gathering (including drone usage) confirms continued small-unit offensive capabilities. MoD Russia has released a video of a Kub loitering munition team (1st Guards Tank Army, Zapad Group of Forces) destroying a camouflaged self-propelled artillery system and manpower of the enemy in Kharkiv region, confirming continued RF loitering munition usage for precision strikes. TASS video of an FPV drone strike by the 72nd Motor Rifle Brigade destroying a fuel and lubricants warehouse and UAF infantry in DPR (Konstantinovka) demonstrates adapted FPV drone tactics. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts on the Konstantinovka direction, implying continued ground force presence. "Z комитет + карта СВО" shows claimed advances at Kolodezi (Lyman direction), demonstrating capability for localized gains. "Сливочный каприз" publishes a chart claiming daily advances in km², implying continued offensive capability. Colonelcassad reports on RF drone operators' work against UAF logistics on the right bank of the Dnipro near Kherson and on the Kherson-Mykolaiv highway, demonstrating continued tactical drone application for interdiction. "Сливочный каприз" reports specific ground activity in the Artemivsk-Hryhorivka area, indicating sustained localized pressure. "Alex Parker Returns' claim of Yunakivka's liberation and "operational space" to Sumy implies RF's capability for rapid ground advances and exploitation of perceived weaknesses in UAF defenses. Akhmat special forces reports confirming no need for additional forces suggests high confidence in their current ground combat capabilities and a readiness to maintain pressure. "Два майора" features a paratrooper's combat experience, projecting RF ground force expertise and resilience. "Z комитет + карта СВО" reports advances at Sofiyivka. "Операция Z" reports "jewelry-like work" by RF drone operators on the Pokrovsk direction, implying precision drone strikes against UAF positions and confirming continued air-ground coordination. "Z комитет + карта СВО" shows an updated map of advances near Pokrovsk, indicating sustained ground pressure. Colonelcassad's Krasnolimanskoye direction map highlights RF control and active engagement zones, confirming continued offensive capabilities. "Сливочный каприз" shows aerial footage of a "Geran-2" strike on UAF positions in Novodonetske, confirming RF's ability to provide aerial fire support for ground operations. The "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" video showing construction with gabion walls suggests RF has the capability to rapidly erect defensive or protective structures, potentially for forward positions or critical infrastructure. Fighterbomber's report on accelerated construction of aircraft shelters at RF airfields indicates the capability to enhance force protection for air assets. "Сливочный каприз" video of drone strikes on the UAF 33rd Mechanized Brigade in Dobropillya demonstrates RF's persistent capability to target UAF ground formations. Colonelcassad reports destruction of a UAF "Senator" vehicle in Oktyabrsky by 132nd Separate Motor Rifle Brigade drone operators. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" provides specific tactical map updates for the Siverske direction, indicating continued adaptive ground operations and attempts to secure positions. "Игорь Артамонов" publishes a video showcasing military training exercises, suggesting continued efforts to maintain combat readiness and skills among personnel. This also shows a capability to influence civilian preparedness. MoD Russia reports Uragan MLRS crews are wiping out UAF temporary deployment areas, positions, and manpower on the right bank of the Dnepr River in Kherson region, confirming continued RF ground force pressure and use of heavy artillery. TASS reports Southern Grouping of Forces destroyed UAF infantry and equipment near Dronovka, DPR, confirming sustained ground engagements. Kadyrov (RF) claims the Akhmat Special Purpose Regiment destroyed a Ukrainian tank with a drone in the Kharkiv direction (Group Izum of 204th Regiment), demonstrating continued RF drone effectiveness against UAF armor and the presence of special forces in key sectors. RF video (Воин DV) shows drone footage of a camouflaged dugout or fortified position in a forested area, likely a UAF position, suggesting ongoing RF reconnaissance and targeting efforts. "Сливочный каприз" posts about "Balagan" in Krasnoarmiisk, implying a chaotic or intense situation on the front. TASS reports RF Southern Grouping of Forces destroyed a Starlink satellite communication station and UAF infantry using drones on the Kramatorsk-Druzhkivka direction, demonstrating adapted tactical targeting of C2 infrastructure and personnel with drones. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video allegedly showing Geran UAVs striking UAF repair facilities in Kremenchuk, confirming continued RF deep strike capabilities. Воин DV claims aerial attacks on UAF positions in Ivanivka, demonstrating close air support. Colonelcassad provides updated tactical maps for Sofiyivka, Shakhove, and Pokrovsk, confirming continued RF ground operations and a focus on these areas.
  • Overwhelming Long-Range Strike & Air Presence: RF launched 142 UAVs (over 100 Shaheds) and 13 missiles overnight across Ukraine, demonstrating an overwhelming long-range strike capability. They can target critical infrastructure (Kremenchuk bridge, energy facilities, including the Trypilska TPP and a thermal generation facility in Kyiv Oblast, DTEK enrichment plant, substation in Novhorod-Siverskyi), C2 nodes (Ukrainian Government Headquarters, Sumy OVA, Cabinet of Ministers building), military-industrial targets, and humanitarian aid facilities. New delivery of Su-35S multirole fighter jets reinforces RF air power. RF continues to direct UAVs across multiple oblasts, including a direct strike UAV threat to Chornomorske, and new waves targeting eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast (from Sumy) and now Kyiv Oblast (from Chernihiv), and specifically targeting Pavlohrad, Hlevakha, Vasylkiv, Boyarka, and Vyshneve. The recent air alert in Kyiv and confirmed Shahed inbound indicates sustained capability, though that alert has now been lifted. Reports of drone attack on Trypilska TPP indicate continued targeting of critical energy infrastructure, with confirmed impact. RF is also capable of causing localized power outages through "accidents" or attacks on energy infrastructure, as seen in Yasynuvata. RF tactical aviation maintains capability for KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. Demonstrated capability for large-scale electricity disruptions in Kyiv Oblast and alerts in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF FPV drones demonstrate capability to disrupt UAF communications in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating a specific EW/cyber-warfare capability using drones. TASS reporting of a missile strike eliminating a Ukrainian outpost commander in Sumy Oblast confirms continued RF capability for precision long-range strikes against UAF forward positions. ASTRA and RF MOD claim seven Ukrainian drones were shot down over Russian territory, indicating continued air defense activity and border engagements. Minenergo and Operativny ZSU report Russia massively attacked a thermal power generation facility in Kyiv Oblast, confirming continued targeting of critical infrastructure. Zaporizhzhia OVA reports 444 strikes in Zaporizhzhia region over the past day, including drone and mortar strikes, indicating continued and widespread RF aerial and indirect fire activity. RF drones (BPLA) attacked the Trypilska TPP near Kyiv overnight, with Colonelcassad confirming subsequent electricity problems in Kyiv and the region. Kotsnews reports Iskander missile strikes on Kryvyi Rih. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports over 56 RF strikes on military targets in Zaporizhzhia direction last night. UAF Air Force reports new KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. UAF Air Force issues new warning for RF strike UAVs in Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorod district). RF drones damaged a garage roof in Donetsk, demonstrating continued precision strike capability on occupied territories. The Air Force of Ukraine reports an ongoing threat of hostile strike UAVs in Lozivskyi district (Kharkiv Oblast), Synelnykivskyi district (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), and Pavlohradskyi district (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). The Air Force of Ukraine also warns of hostile UAVs approaching Chernihiv from the northeast, urging citizens to stay in shelters. Furthermore, the Air Force of Ukraine has issued a threat warning for hostile strike UAVs in Lozivskyi district (Kharkiv Oblast), Synelnykivskyi district (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), and Pavlohradskyi district (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), indicating a multi-directional drone threat. UAF Air Force reports hostile UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Pavlohrad and Petropavlivka) and Kharkiv Oblast (Bliznyuky/Lozova). UAF Air Force reports KAB launches towards Kramatorsk and high-speed targets towards Kramatorsk. UAF Air Force reports hostile strike UAVs threatening Zhytomyr Oblast. STERNENKO (GUR MO) showcases "Barakuda" drones, including fixed-wing and quadcopters, conducting reconnaissance and targeting operations, potentially including engagements with Russian drones. ASTRA reports over 40 villages in Crimea are de-energized due to drone attacks, with a large smoke plume visible, indicating successful UAF drone strikes. Air Force of Ukraine reports rocket danger for Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Air Force of Ukraine has lifted the rocket threat for Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Kotsnews reports a series of strikes on Kramatorsk, implying continued missile or air attacks. Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Novopavlivka, Scherbaky, Mahdalynivka, Lukyanivske of Zaporizhzhia region, Antonivka of Kherson region, indicating widespread air support for ground operations. UAF Air Force reports ongoing hostile strike UAVs on Zhytomyr Oblast (northeast and west of Malyn), Chernihiv Oblast (towards Horodnia and Novhorod-Siverskyi), and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (towards Petropavlivka from southeast). UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RF tactical aviation on Donetsk region. RF MOD claims PVO forces shot down 12 Ukrainian UAVs over Crimea and one over the Black Sea, demonstrating active air defense capabilities. Colonelcassad's "Chronicle of strikes" video showing luminous orbs and a large fire/explosion implies continued RF deep strikes and targeting of infrastructure. TASS reports RF MOD claims damage to an energy facility supporting the Ukrainian MIC and air defense radar stations. TASS also reports a video of an FPV drone strike by the 72nd Motor Rifle Brigade destroying a fuel and lubricants warehouse and UAF infantry in DPR (Konstantinovka). Fighterbomber video shows multiple Ka-52 'Alligator' attack helicopters operating in Ukrainian airspace. UAF Air Force reports a hostile UAV over Horodnia, Chernihiv Oblast. Colonelcassad publishes a video of a strike on the Trypilska TPP, including secondary explosions and fire, confirming an impactful strike on critical energy infrastructure. РБК-Україна reports a DTEK enrichment plant was attacked in Donetsk Oblast, paralyzing its operations, indicating continued adaptive targeting of industrial assets. The successful destruction of a warehouse with 60,000 food packages in Kryvyi Rih (previous report) demonstrates RF's adapted targeting of humanitarian and logistical supply nodes. Alex Parker Returns confirms Slavyansk is completely de-energized and reiterates night strikes on Trypilska TPP, indicating continued RF capability for impactful deep strikes on critical energy infrastructure. "Военкор Котенок" reports powerful strikes on Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, indicating an adaptation for concentrated strikes on key urban centers. The impending thunderstorm in Kyiv (РБК-Україна) may force RF to adapt its air campaign, potentially favoring missile strikes over large-scale drone attacks if visibility or wind conditions deteriorate. "Оперативний ЗСУ" and "РБК-Україна" confirming an Iskander cruise missile (9M727) struck the Cabinet of Ministers building demonstrates a precise targeting capability against national C2. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України" reports active threats of strike UAVs in Mykolaiv and Chernihiv Oblasts, reinforcing RF's adaptive use of drones for persistent pressure. Fighterbomber's images of accelerated construction of aircraft shelters at RF airfields reinforce the capability to protect and sustain air assets for ongoing operations. Colonelcassad reports massive FAB strikes on Kramatorsk, targeting enemy locations and command posts. Colonelcassad reports a strike on a substation in Novhorod-Siverskyi, indicating continued adaptive targeting of critical energy infrastructure. "Повітряні Сили ЗС України" issues a threat of hostile strike UAVs in Odesa Oblast, demonstrating continued RF drone activity in southern Ukraine. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast, further confirming RF's persistent use of guided aerial munitions. "Военкор Котенок" reports an American Boeing RC-135V Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft operating along the northwestern border of RF, indicating sustained NATO ISR activity, which RF will monitor. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk region. UAF Air Force reports a group of hostile UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast kursing towards Kyiv Oblast (Buchansky district), and a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast (Shostkinsky district) and a reconnaissance UAV in eastern Kharkiv Oblast, demonstrating continued and multi-directional RF aerial pressure. UAF Air Force reports an enemy UAV threat in Kyiv Oblast (Boryspil district, kursing southwest), showing adapted drone approach vectors to Kyiv. TASS reports Putin connected to the BRICS online summit via video link from Sochi. UAF Air Force alert reports hostile strike UAVs entering Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, kursing southwest. UAF Air Force alert for Chernihiv on hostile UAVs. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration has re-issued an "ATTENTION" alert. UAF Air Force reports hostile strike UAVs in eastern Bohodukhivskyi district, Kharkiv Oblast, kursing east/south. UAF Air Force reports KAB launches by RF tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. Air Force of Ukraine issues a ballistic missile threat from the east.
  • Refined FPV Drone Employment: The FPV strike on a locomotive in Chaplyne demonstrates an adaptation for deeper strikes on rail logistics. Mass drone attacks on Donetsk and Makeevka, injuring children, shows adaptation for localized attrition. The use of "Orlan-10" drones as FPV carriers further refines FPV deployment tactics. FPV drones specifically targeting UAF communications in Kharkiv Oblast show a new, specialized role for these systems. The use of FPV drones by the 69th Brigade to "uncover" dugouts and deliver TM mines on the Vremevka direction demonstrates adapted FPV drone tactics for close combat and direct engagement of personnel in fortified positions. TASS video of an FPV drone strike by the 72nd Motor Rifle Brigade destroying a fuel and lubricants warehouse and UAF infantry in DPR (Konstantinovka) demonstrates an adaptation for FPV drone usage against tactical logistics and personnel concentrations. "Филолог в засаде" mentions "Дроннице-2025," possibly indicating a focus on new drone warfare strategies or an event, suggesting adaptive development in this domain. Colonelcassad's report of a UAF "Lord" UAV with Starlink found on the Azov Sea coast, implies adapted RF counter-UAV measures or exploitation of downed enemy systems. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts a video of Ukrainian drone operators targeting enemy logistics in the Lyman direction, confirming RF's vulnerability to adaptive UAF drone tactics and implicitly, RF's need to adapt further. "Воин DV" posts photo messages claiming the 35th Army downed two "Baba Yaga" and one "Lelka" drones in the Polohy direction, indicating adaptive RF counter-UAV tactics and successful interception of UAF drone assets. "Операция Z" reports "jewelry-like work" by RF drone operators on the Pokrovsk direction, demonstrating highly precise and adapted FPV drone tactics. "Воин DV" publishes a video continuing the theme of grounded enemy agricultural drones, indicating a consistent and adapted counter-drone warfare effort. STERNENKO (UAF) reports drone pilots from the Phoenix Aviation Systems (Phoenix Gv BAS) halted another Russian mechanized assault on the Pokrovsk axis, confirming adapted and effective UAF counter-drone tactics against RF ground advances. UAF Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Administration reports RF is using FPV drones in artillery attacks on Nikopol region, indicating continued and adapted tactical use of FPVs against civilian and potential military targets. TASS reports RF Southern Grouping of Forces destroyed a Starlink station and UAF infantry using drones on the Kramatorsk-Druzhkivka direction, confirming adapted use of FPVs against tactical C2 and personnel. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports that UAF UAVs successfully bypassed PVO in Donetsk, causing ground damage.
  • Denial in IO: The quick denial of targeting the Ukrainian parliament building and now the Government Building indicates a tactical adaptation in IO to manage international perception. However, the confirmation of an Iskander strike on the Cabinet of Ministers will undermine these denials.
  • Focus on Drone-Related Infrastructure: The RF MoD claims of targeting facilities for drone manufacturing highlight a specific adaptation to counter UAF drone capabilities.
  • Use of TOS-1A: The reported damage to a TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" on the Vovchansk axis indicates continued deployment of high-impact thermobaric systems.
  • **Strategic use of civilian casualty claims (Donetsk school #20, other residential buildings, "Gulliver" park, Dobropillia residential building) as an IO adaptation to influence international opinion and dehumanize UAF. Domestic IO, such as Mironov's pension proposals and parallel import reports, are adapted to address internal economic concerns, potentially influenced by ongoing conflict. Diplomatic IO, such as Peskov's statements and reporting on Trump's views (on European leaders and speaking with Putin), are adapted to influence international perception and project a weakening of support for Ukraine or a shift in the international landscape. The new TASS video of a captured UAF soldier is a new vector in RF's anti-Ukrainian narrative, aiming to portray UAF's desperation and alleged unethical practices in its mobilization efforts, and to degrade UAF's image internationally. The publicizing of the Mitvol corruption case is an adaptation in domestic IO to project accountability and maintain internal political stability. Immediate counter-narrative (dynamic map) to UAF claims of success on Pokrovsk is a tactical adaptation in IO to manage battlefield narratives in real-time. Colonelcassad's blank photo messages likely represent an adaptation for immediate visual propaganda dissemination. Peskov's statement on "European militarism" is an adaptation in diplomatic IO, attempting to reframe international support for Ukraine as aggressive. The use of Marochko's claims of UAF losses is an adaptation in demoralization propaganda. The "Russia is a country of heroes!" poster is an adaptation for internal morale boosting and nationalistic cohesion. Colonelcassad's photos of captured Western military equipment are an adaptation for immediate visual propaganda, leveraging battlefield captures. TASS report on Mironov's proposal to temporarily rename St. Petersburg to Leningrad on holidays represents an adaptation in domestic IO, leveraging historical nostalgia to strengthen national identity and resolve. TASS reporting on the alleged surrender of UAF soldiers in Borovska Andriivka, Kharkiv Oblast due to leaflets (Borovska Andriivka) demonstrates an adaptation of psychological warfare using printed propaganda and immediate video exploitation. WarGonzo's rapid deployment of front-line summaries with tactical maps demonstrates an adaptive real-time IO strategy. Basurin's immediate amplification of civilian casualties in Donetsk is an adaptive exploitation of events for propaganda. Fighterbomber's video discussing military concepts is an adaptation to influence military thinking and morale internally. Poddubny's recurrent focus on "American mercenaries" is an adaptive narrative for anti-Western sentiment. TASS reports of alleged UAF executions of civilian vehicles reinforces the narrative of Ukrainian war crimes. 'Два майора' highlighting Belgorod information restrictions is an IO adaptation to justify censorship and rally internal support. Воин DV releases video compilation demonstrating "deadly effectiveness" of combat drones, aiming to project RF military prowess. Janus Putkonen's use of videos of empty Finnish retail outlets is an adaptation in IO to project economic decline in adversary states. Военкор Котенок's post on an Azerbaijani diaspora leader running for 'United Russia' in Ivanovo Oblast is an adaptation in IO to promote internal unity and diversity within RF political structures. Mash на Донбассе's promotion of tourism in occupied Azov and Black Sea regions, normalizing occupation. TASS's reporting on preferential mortgages is an adaptation to address domestic economic concerns, leveraging state benefits. Putin's proposed denunciation of the European Convention for the Prevention of Torture. TASS reports charges against bloggers Chekalins for financial crimes, adapting IO to highlight internal anti-corruption measures. Два майора's promotion of their channel on MAX.RU is an adaptation to expand IO reach. WarGonzo's "Liberation then and now" video for Donbas links current conflict to WWII, reinforcing historical narratives. Два майора and Colonelcassad actively promote videos of UAV attacks on Trypilska TPP and Iskander strikes on Kryvyi Rih, confirming and amplifying RF strike capabilities. Новости Москвы reports on Russians using modern slang, possibly an attempt to portray Russian society as normal and modern. ТАСС's report on Ovechkin's gift projects normalcy and celebrating national sporting heroes. ASTRA reports SBU has declared Russian rapper Timati wanted, a Ukrainian IO success which RF IO will attempt to counter or ignore. ТАСС reports FSB detained an Azerbaijani citizen in Stavropol Krai for preparing terrorist attacks, an adaptation to showcase internal security to a domestic and international audience. Colonelcassad's updated map changes are an ongoing adaptation for battlefield narrative control. TASS's reporting on singer Lada Dance's debts represents an adaptation in IO to focus on individual financial challenges, possibly for public deflection or subtly implying economic difficulties. The TASS video showing the detained Azerbaijani citizen confessing and swearing allegiance to a Ukrainian liberation battalion, following an FSB operation, demonstrates an adaptation in RF's counter-terrorism IO, directly linking Ukraine to internal security threats and justifying RF actions. Kotsnews' focus on Yekaterinburg as a "rear-area forge of Victory," is an adaptive IO narrative to emphasize the crucial role of domestic industry in supporting the war. TASS publishes a column by Dmitry Medvedev claiming Helsinki is preparing for war and a possible attack on Russia, an aggressive IO adaptation to frame perceived threats from new NATO members. TASS announces a Russian court banned Wintershall Dea from suing RF abroad and imposed a €7.5 billion penalty for violation, projecting legal and economic sovereignty as an IO tactic. Basurin reports a journalist investigating fortification corruption found dead in Sumy, which is likely an RF IO attempt to discredit Ukrainian governance. Politico reports that Western observers will analyze the "Zapad-2025" exercises to assess Russian combat readiness, potentially influencing RF operational adjustments in the near term. TASS announces the Kremlin has launched an official channel for the President of RF on the national messenger Max, adapting to new communication platforms for centralized messaging. Colonelcassad's "collection for the autumn-winter campaign 2025" implies ongoing fundraising for military efforts. TASS reports advice from the Ministry of Internal Affairs on Telegram account security, portraying a caring government concerned with civilian welfare. Два майора highlights unsold new housing in St. Petersburg, which could be an IO effort to portray domestic economic concerns or criticize local governance, potentially influencing public sentiment towards local authorities rather than the central government. Basurin o glavnom states "There is nothing new, there is well-forgotten old," an IO tactic to normalize the conflict narrative, potentially boosting morale by downplaying new threats. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's videos of Donetsk park damage, explicitly blaming UAF, represents an adaptive IO effort to inflame anti-Ukrainian sentiment. Новости Москвы's mushroom picking report is an adaptive IO tactic to project normalcy. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники's report of a young soldier's death, while tragic, can be an adaptive IO element to highlight sacrifice and rally support. Старше Эдды's economic commentary on German auto industry, while not directly related to Ukraine, fits into RF's broader IO narrative of Western economic struggles. TASS reports the Prosecutor General's lawsuit against an ex-Deputy Minister, an adaptive IO tactic to project internal anti-corruption efforts. Alex Parker Returns quotes Sergey Lavrov stating Russia is not seeking revenge and is open to cooperation with former Western partners, a diplomatic IO effort to soften Russia's image. Два майора posts a photo message claiming "demilitarization of UAF continues due to the imposition of various gender advisors," likely a derogatory IO effort. Операция Z quotes Orban stating Ukraine will be divided into three zones after the conflict: Russian, demilitarized, and Western, which RF will amplify to project a favorable future outcome aligned with its interests. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims at least 92 US mercenaries have been eliminated, an adaptive IO tactic to denigrate Western support. TASS report on Hungarian PM Orban's claim about Marine Le Pen is intended to highlight perceived flaws in Western democratic processes, creating discord. Alex Parker Returns' post alleging censorship by "democratic media" about a Ukrainian refugee's killing is an adaptive RF-aligned IO effort to discredit Western democracy and sow discord. "Два майора" reports an internal security incident at the FSB regional directorate in Magadan, for IO to showcase effective internal security. TASS features Sergey Lavrov claiming "marginal characters in the West" seek to dismember Russia, adapting IO to reinforce external threat narratives. "Сливочный каприз" publishes offensive tempo graphics for IO. WarGonzo's video of civilian suffering likely for domestic IO. Kotsnews video questioning the Bucha massacre narrative is a direct RF IO effort. "Два майора" claims Kyiv allocated 500 million UAH (USD 12 million) for emergency mobilization, implying UAF financial strain. "Воин DV" publishes a critique of Zelenskyy's evolving definition of "Ukrainian victory," a continuous RF IO effort to sow doubt in UAF leadership. "Два майора" leverages a Bloomberg report on China's increased LNG purchases from Russia to highlight RF's economic resilience against sanctions. TASS reports on the lifelong blocking of fraudsters' accounts on Max messenger, for domestic IO reinforcing internal security. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" frames the UAF Commander-in-Chief's statements as "anti-crisis," aimed at discrediting UAF leadership. "Операция Z" shares Lavrov's speech criticizing the West and promoting Eurasian cooperation, which is a key diplomatic IO element to undermine Western unity. "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" reports on a deceased soldier declared a deserter, which, if the soldier is Ukrainian, serves as IO to highlight internal Ukrainian administrative issues. "Народная милиция ДНР" shares a video about humanitarian aid delivery to soldiers, for domestic morale boosting. "Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц"" posts a video of Lavrov with cultural artifacts, framed with humor. "Старше Эдды" directly mocks Zelenskyy's statement about victory, immediately disseminating a counter-narrative to undermine UAF leadership. TASS reports the Moscow City Court upheld the decision to return an apartment to Larisa Dolina after a phone fraud incident, which is a domestic IO effort to project legal fairness and protect citizens. TASS reports on German investigators (Die Welt) attributing Nord Stream sabotage to Zaluzhny, a major, coordinated RF IO effort to deflect blame and discredit UAF. Alex Parker Returns posts highly graphic and disturbing content, which serves as extreme, dehumanizing RF propaganda, signaling a new low in IO tactics. TASS reports that US large and small businesses are ready to return to Russia after political settlement (via Boris Titov at EEF), a significant RF IO message aimed at demonstrating economic resilience and attracting foreign investment. "Басурин о главном" shares a video promoting "Soviet principles" and displaying military hardware (Kinzhal, Sarmat, Burevestnik, Poseidon), a strong nationalistic and militaristic IO campaign aimed at domestic and international audiences to project strength and an alternative ideology. "Операция Z" posts an image claiming EU purchased €1.2 billion in metals from Russia in half a year, used to discredit the effectiveness of Western sanctions. "Рыбарь" states "Need more threat to the States," an aggressive IO message aimed at positioning RF as a global challenger to US influence. "Alex Parker Returns" amplifies a narrative of Spain sanctioning Israel and Israel sanctioning Spain, linking it to the Jerusalem attacks and historical anti-semitism, to sow discord and deflect from Ukraine. "AV БогомаZ" posts photo messages of a memorial, which serves as domestic IO to valorize military service and sacrifice. "Alex Parker Returns" posts a social media screenshot that attempts to discredit Western living conditions ("New York is good. A relocant from Moscow was asked to elaborate on why she felt much safer at home than in a new place. May good prevail!"), aimed at discouraging emigration and bolstering internal confidence in Russia. "Colonelcassad" posts a video of Viktor Orbán discussing a three-way partition of Ukraine (Russian, demilitarized, Western zones), which is a key RF IO effort to push a narrative of Ukraine's inevitable division and delegitimize its sovereignty. "ТАСС" reports a NYT article claiming at least 92 American mercenaries were eliminated in Ukraine, which is a clear RF IO effort to denigrate Western support and project military effectiveness. "Операция Z" amplifies calls in Czechia to deny residency rights to Ukrainian refugees, a direct RF IO effort to sow discord between Ukraine and its European allies. "Филолог в засаде" reports a lecture by Yuri Yevich, a prominent milblogger, suggesting efforts to maintain cohesion and share tactical knowledge within the RF milblogger community. "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" shares a video and photo messages of graves being leveled in Yakutsk, which could be exploited by RF IO to portray a lack of respect for fallen soldiers or mismanagement of military casualties, potentially for internal political messaging or to counter narratives of heroism. "Janus Putkonen - Uutisia и kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/ТИEDОТТЕЕТ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia)" escalates its anti-Finnish rhetoric, calling Finland a "Hitler satellite state" and threatening its statehood if it continues to "attack Russia," escalating inflammatory rhetoric against a NATO member. TASS reports on "political turbulence" in France and potential "early presidential elections," which RF IO will leverage to project Western instability and internal division. "Басурин о главном" presents a video and chart on "Azerbaijani standards: continuous hatred and a threat to Russia's security," indicating an aggressive RF IO campaign against Azerbaijan, framing it as a threat. "Два майора" posts about "information-propaganda justification for European countries' military spending," indicating a continued RF IO effort to question Western military support for Ukraine. TASS reports Kazanov from Rosnedra claims Russia has enough oil. TASS reports Aeroflot plans to sign contracts for 90 MC-21 aircraft. TASS reports on the potential recommendation of Igor Krasnov for Head of the Supreme Court, indicating an adaptive IO effort to project stability in the judicial system. This also demonstrates RF's ability to control and direct messaging through official state channels. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" attributes the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage to former UAF Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny, a significant IO escalation aiming to directly blame a high-profile Ukrainian official for a major geopolitical incident. This is an adaptive IO measure to discredit UAF leadership. "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) promotes an esports player with a "Crimea is Russia" nickname, signaling an adaptation to incorporate patriotic messaging into popular culture. TASS reports Dmitry Peskov (Kremlin spokesperson) stated Putin's speech at the BRICS summit will not be open to media, and a brief statement will be released after the closed event, indicating adapted information control for key diplomatic events. TASS reports on Russian police establishing identities of teenagers who abused an elderly woman in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, a domestic IO effort to showcase law enforcement effectiveness. Colonelcassad posts photo messages about a monument to Stalin unveiled in Murmansk, an internal IO effort to evoke Soviet-era nostalgia and reinforce nationalistic sentiment. TASS column by Medvedev directly implicates the EU in "heating up the idea" of Finland severing parts of RF territory, signaling an escalation of RF anti-EU and anti-Finnish rhetoric. Colonelcassad reports the 70th birthday of the RF Chief of General Staff, likely Gerasimov, used for internal morale and demonstrating continuity of command. Alex Parker Returns posts photo of a police car, captioned about obtaining driving licenses, likely a domestic Russian police/traffic-related update. Colonelcassad reports former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba fled to Poland after a Kyiv decision to ban former diplomats from leaving, an RF IO narrative to highlight perceived internal Ukrainian political instability. Два майора reports Azerbaijani diaspora leader Mamedov withdrew from elections in Ivanovo, Russia, a domestic political development. TASS reports Medvedev's claim that unfriendly states may deliberately introduce dangerous plants and microorganisms into RF, escalating biological warfare rhetoric. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) reports on a Ukrainian Rada deputy discussing widespread desertion among Ukrainian soldiers, an RF IO effort to demoralize UAF forces. Colonelcassad reports on the detention of a Moldovan border police chief for kidnapping Ukrainian migrants and returning them to Ukraine for money, an RF IO effort to highlight alleged corruption and human trafficking related to Ukrainian mobilization. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) actively propagates that Kyiv, Odesa, and other Ukrainian cities could be without heating this winter due to attacks, a clear psychological operation. TASS reports of scammers using fake police numbers, a domestic IO effort aimed at public protection.
  • New Intelligence on RF Military Morale (Potentially Significant): MoD Russia releases a video of a Russian serviceman expressing disillusionment and questioning his role as an "assault trooper," stating they were "cannon fodder" and urging others not to go to war. This is highly unusual for an official MOD channel and contradicts typical pro-war messaging. While the date (March 5, 2025) is in the future, it could indicate internal morale issues or a new, subtle IO tactic aimed at external audiences, or even an attempted UAF IO infiltration of RF channels. (Confidence: LOW - due to future date, but HIGH - for potential significance).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian force posture and readiness (Confidence: HIGH) UAF maintains a robust defensive posture across multiple axes, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis, actively repelling RF assaults and conducting localized counter-attacks (e.g., Druzhkivka, Volodymyrivka – Novotoretske directions, Zarichne). The 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skela" successfully deoccupied Zarichne, demonstrating offensive capability and commitment of assault units. UAF Special Operations Forces (SSO) are actively engaged in qualification courses, indicating a focus on maintaining and enhancing elite capabilities. UAF drone units are being actively equipped and trained (21st Separate Mechanized Brigade), including fiber optics for drone deployment. The 80th Separate Airborne Assault Galician Brigade highlights the effectiveness of FPV drones in reducing infantry workload, indicating adaptive technological integration. UAF Air Force demonstrates high responsiveness in engaging incoming UAVs and missiles across multiple regions, including Kyiv (multiple alerts and interceptions, 112 out of 142 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed overnight). PVO forces are active in Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and Sumy Oblasts, and actively track UAVs across the country. UAF continues to execute deep strikes into RF territory (Ilsky Oil Refinery, Druzhba pipeline, Rosneft gas station) and occupied territories (Donetsk, Makeevka, Rylsk area, Crimea), demonstrating long-range strike capabilities. GUR cyber specialists have reportedly accessed Russian fuel card servers, indicating an ongoing cyber offensive. The 58th Motorized Brigade, in cooperation with allies, claims destruction of two bridges in RF territory, further demonstrating deep strike capabilities. The Ministry of Defense successfully saved 511 million UAH through FPV drone procurement, showcasing efficient resource management. UAF maintains effective internal security and law enforcement capabilities, as evidenced by successful operations against organized criminal groups in Ivano-Frankivsk and a group supplying agricultural products to RF in Dnipro, and the detention of a serviceman for bribery. The reported increase of 910 RF personnel losses in the past 24 hours, alongside the August gains of 58 sq. km, highlights UAF's continued attrition of RF forces and localized successes. The "Revenge" brigade of the State Border Guard Service continues to capture RF prisoners, indicating successful tactical engagements. The "Shadow" unit's drone footage of successful strikes on RF trenches demonstrates ongoing direct engagement and precision targeting capabilities. UAF General Staff and ОТУ "Харків" provide transparent and regular operational information, maintaining C2 effectiveness and public confidence. UAF 63rd Brigade drone pilots are actively hunting Russian forces attempting to penetrate Torske and Zarichne, demonstrating sustained defensive readiness and effective use of drone assets. The "Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими" is initiating psychological and psychosocial recovery projects for military families, indicating strong morale and welfare support for personnel and their dependents. The upcoming "Ramstein" format meeting signifies continued international support and coordination for UAF's operational readiness. UAF leadership (Olexander Vilkul) is actively engaging with partners (e.g., firefighters) to coordinate responses to RF strikes, demonstrating effective inter-agency cooperation. The 81st Airmobile Brigade's tactical training video confirms continued high-level combat readiness. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація reports a chess tournament for war veterans, indicating strong support for veteran reintegration and well-being. Николаевский Ванёк reports fundraising for the 140th separate reconnaissance battalion on the Kherson direction, indicating continued active UAF ISR operations. The Coordination Staff for the Treatment of Prisoners of War reports a meeting with families of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade's field communication hub, indicating ongoing support for military families. UAF General Staff provides updated operational information as of 081600Z SEP 25. Zelenskiy's video celebrating the Day of Military Intelligence highlights strong unit morale and national recognition for intelligence services. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація's videos promoting safe offline education for children in Zaporizhzhia demonstrate the community's resilience and adaptive measures to maintain normalcy amidst ongoing threats, which indirectly boosts morale. The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" shares an emotional video, featuring a female sergeant reflecting on the personal and collective sacrifices in the conflict and expressing unwavering commitment to fighting for Ukraine, which highlights morale and resilience of UAF personnel. The Presidential Brigade of UAF claims to have successfully shot down an Iskander-K cruise missile using a ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft system, demonstrating continued air defense capabilities against advanced threats. The re-issuance of an "ATTENTION" alert by Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration indicates continued UAF vigilance and preparedness for active threats. The UAF General Staff video featuring a soldier's "love for mortars" indicates high morale and continued effective use of indirect fire capabilities. UAF General Staff posts photos of cadets undergoing a "Psychological Obstacle Course", demonstrating ongoing training for combat resilience. UAF 40th Coastal Defense Brigade is employing Barracuda unmanned surface vessels (USVs) in Kherson Oblast, indicating adaptive naval drone usage. Oleksandr Vilkul provides a briefing on the results for 08 SEP 25, implying active command and control. Zelenskiy's video address confirms a Staff meeting focused on technological issues, air defense, drone production, and front-line situation, indicating sustained strategic oversight and adaptation.

3.2. Recent tactical successes or setbacks (Confidence: HIGH)

• Successes:
  • Air Defense Effectiveness: UAF Air Force reports successfully shooting down/suppressing 112 out of 142 enemy UAVs overnight, with over 100 being Shaheds. This demonstrates significant proficiency and continued adaptation of air defense systems against high-volume drone attacks. The Presidential Brigade of UAF claims to have successfully shot down an Iskander-K cruise missile, a high-value air defense success.
  • Localized Ground Gains: The 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skela" deoccupied Zarichne, Donetsk Oblast. Syrsky reports UAF regained 58 sq. km of territory in August, liberating several settlements. Zvizedets Mangust reports UAF counter-attacked in the Volodymyrivka – Novotoretske direction, reaching Pankivka and Mayak, with unconfirmed reports of reaching Novotoretske. These indicate successful localized offensive actions. STERNENKO (UAF) reports drone pilots from the Phoenix Aviation Systems (Phoenix Gv BAS) halted another Russian mechanized assault on the Pokrovsk axis, demonstrating effective counter-offensive actions.
  • Deep Strikes and Interdiction: UAF continues successful deep strikes into RF territory (Ilsky Oil Refinery, Druzhba oil pipeline, Rosneft gas station, two bridges in RF territory by 58th Motorized Brigade) and occupied Crimea (40+ villages de-energized by drone attacks). GUR cyber specialists reportedly accessed Russian fuel card servers and took down dozens of enemy online resources, a significant cyber offensive success. An explosion near a military unit in Khabarovsk, Russia, attributed to forces that committed war crimes in Kyiv Oblast, indicates a successful deep strike or sabotage operation. Successful drone strikes on RF trenches by the "Shadow" unit. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of an "epic bridge destruction" on RF territory, confirming highly effective deep strikes. STERNENKO video of aerial footage (thermal/low-light) with military insignia and donation calls implies continued successful UAF drone reconnaissance and targeting capabilities. UAF 40th Coastal Defense Brigade is utilizing Barracuda USVs, demonstrating an adaptive and potentially impactful capability for naval operations in Kherson Oblast.
  • Targeting High-Value RF Assets: UAF Falcon Squad reportedly damaged an RF TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" heavy flamethrower system on the Vovchansk axis. UAF reports destruction of an RF BM-27 "Uragan" MLRS by an FPV drone. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a graphic claiming SBU has destroyed 2100 Russian tanks, indicating significant success in tank destruction.
  • Counter-Intelligence & Internal Security: SBU has revealed new details about a "mole" in NABU, highlighting an FSB agent network targeting Ukraine, including former SBU employees and a National Guard serviceman, and their detention of a serviceman for bribery related to military registration, indicating effective counter-intelligence. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports a successful operation against an organized criminal group in Ivano-Frankivsk region and a group supplying agricultural products to RF in Dnipro (7 arrested), demonstrating effective internal security and counter-economic warfare.
  • Resource Management: STERNENKO reports the Ministry of Defense saved 511 million UAH through FPV drone procurement.
  • Information Warfare: Successful IO efforts include highlighting RF personnel losses (910 in 24 hours), showcasing captured RF prisoners, confirming RF's weapon systems (Iskander-K remnants), and promoting national unity and international support. UAF IO is actively leveraging the EU Ambassador's photo messages of Iskander missile remnants at the Cabinet of Ministers strike site to galvanize international support. Zelenskiy's video celebrating Military Intelligence Day boosts morale and highlights intelligence successes. UAF video (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) showing a bound man on a rural road, labeled as "Russian naked standing," likely represents a successful psychological operation or capture/interdiction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС drone footage showing successful engagements against Russian targets for morale and psychological impact. Operativny ZSU dismisses Putin's statement on Ukraine joining the EU as "pissing in the ears to please Trump," a direct counter-IO, demonstrating proactive response to RF narratives.
• Setbacks:
  • Persistent RF Air Strikes: Despite high interception rates, RF's overwhelming long-range strike capability continues to inflict significant damage on critical energy, industrial, and civilian infrastructure (Trypilska TPP, thermal generation facility in Kyiv Oblast, DTEK enrichment plant, Sumy Oblast Administration, Cabinet of Ministers, Dobropillia residential building, Shostka, Novhorod-Siverskyi substation, Kremenchuk repair facilities). The confirmed Iskander-K strike on the Cabinet of Ministers demonstrates RF's ability to precisely target high-value national C2 nodes. New reports of RF artillery and FPV drone attacks on Nikopol region inflicting damage underscore persistent RF pressure and localized destruction.
  • Civilian Casualties: RF strikes resulted in 12 fatalities and 27 injured (including a 6-year-old child) in Kupiansk, Kozacha Lopan, and Khotimlya between 1-7 SEP, and the death toll in Kyiv from yesterday's attack has risen to three confirmed fatalities, including a child. The attack on Dobropillia caused significant destruction to a multi-story residential building. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo messages highlighting the death of a mare (Freili), saved from Bucha, in a Russian strike in Kyiv Oblast, further emphasizing the widespread impact of RF strikes.
  • Localized RF Ground Advances: RF has continued localized ground advances on the Pokrovsk axis (Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts), creating intense combat. Colonelcassad's updated maps confirm RF advances towards Sofiyivka and Shakhove, and around Pokrovsk.
  • Logistical Challenges: While automotive traffic has been restored on the Kremenchuk bridge, the prior damage likely caused temporary disruptions, requiring UAF to adapt its logistics. Severe flooding in Kyiv adds a layer of immediate hardship and logistical challenges, contributing to public anxiety.
  • Personnel Drain: Over 150,000 military pensioners of mobilization age are reportedly not serving in the AFU, suggesting a potential untapped human resource, but also a constraint if these individuals are unwilling or unable to serve. The reported suicide of a police officer in Kryvyi Rih, while potentially isolated, could reflect broader societal stress and mental health challenges induced by the war. New report of three women charged in Vinnytsia for protesting against TCCs highlights internal challenges related to mobilization efforts and potential public discontent. Reports of widespread desertion among Ukrainian soldiers (Операция Z) would severely impact public trust and morale if widely believed.
  • Information Environment Challenges: The RF IO campaign claiming UAF attacks on civilian targets (Donetsk school, park) and fabricating stories (captured soldier, school buses, Nord Stream sabotage by Zaluzhny, Moldovan police kidnapping Ukrainian migrants) continues to pose a challenge to UAF's narrative control. The death of journalist Takhtai in Sumy Oblast investigating fortification corruption, if leveraged by RF, could undermine trust in Ukrainian governance. RF IO is amplifying a narrative about former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba fleeing Kyiv, aimed at discrediting Ukrainian leadership.
  • Nuclear Safety Concerns: IAEA Head Grossi states 6 of 7 nuclear safety pillars at the Zaporizhzhia NPP have been violated, a serious development.

3.3. Resource requirements and constraints (Confidence: HIGH)

• Air Defense Systems & Munitions: (CRITICAL, PERSISTING) The sheer volume of RF drone and missile attacks (142 UAVs, 13 missiles overnight) places immense strain on UAF air defense systems and munition stockpiles. This remains the paramount resource requirement. While UAF reports 112/142 successful interceptions, this high rate of expenditure is unsustainable without continuous resupply. Zelenskiy's Staff meeting prioritizing air defense systems and missiles underscores this critical need.
• Counter-Drone Capabilities: (HIGH, PERSISTING) The continued effectiveness of RF FPV and strike UAVs (e.g., "Geran-2" strikes, disruption of UAF comms, FPV attacks on Nikopol, destruction of Starlink stations) necessitates further investment in counter-drone technologies (jammers, dedicated interceptor drones like "Barakuda," electronic warfare systems). STERNENKO's report on acquiring +450 FPV drones, including 40 Shahed interceptors, indicates a direct effort to address this, but the need is ongoing. Zelenskiy's Staff meeting specifically addressed drone production and quality.
• Engineering & Repair Equipment: (HIGH, PERSISTING) The persistent RF targeting of critical infrastructure (thermal power plants, substations, DTEK enrichment plant, Kremenchuk repair facilities) creates an ongoing demand for specialized heavy engineering equipment and skilled personnel for rapid repair and restoration of electricity and industrial capacity. The recent flooding in Kyiv also highlights a need for civilian engineering assets (pumps, heavy equipment) for urban recovery.
• Medical & Psychological Support: (HIGH, PERSISTING) The sustained civilian casualties and military losses necessitate continuous and robust medical supplies, field hospitals, and psychological support services for both combatants and civilians, particularly for families of POWs and missing servicemen, as indicated by the "Коло Дій 2.0" project and Coordination Staff for Treatment of POWs' initiatives. Operatyvny ZSU's new medical notification system via Diia highlights an adaptive approach to citizen healthcare, but the underlying demand for medical resources remains high.
• Ground Force Mobilization & Equipment: (MEDIUM, PERSISTING) The reported 150,000 military pensioners not serving in the AFU suggests a potential untapped human resource, but also a constraint if these individuals are unwilling or unable to serve. New reports of protests against TCCs in Vinnytsia indicate potential challenges in mobilization. Continued localized ground engagements and the impending RF offensive on the Pokrovsk axis will require sustained personnel and equipment replenishment. Fundraising efforts for vehicles (153rd Separate Mechanized Brigade) highlight ongoing equipment needs. The emotional video from the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade highlights the human cost and continuous need for personnel and support for those on the front lines.
• Long-Range Strike Capabilities: (MEDIUM, PERSISTING) While UAF demonstrates deep strike capabilities (oil refineries, bridges, Barracuda USVs), the ability to interdict deeper RF logistics and C2 nodes effectively against RF's own deep strike capabilities remains crucial. This implies a need for continued supply of precision long-range munitions. Zelenskiy highlights increased supply of long-range weapons.
• ISR Assets: (HIGH, PERSISTING) The dynamic battlefield and the need to track RF advances and target selection require robust and persistent ISR capabilities, including advanced drones, SIGINT, and HUMINT. Fundraising for the 140th separate reconnaissance battalion on the Kherson direction indicates a direct need for continued ISR capabilities.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

4.1. Propaganda and disinformation campaigns (Confidence: HIGH)

• RF Propaganda (Aggressive and Multi-Layered):
  • Dehumanization & War Crimes Accusations: RF continues its aggressive campaign to portray UAF as war criminals, notably by amplifying claims of UAF drone strikes on civilian targets in Donetsk (school #20, "Gulliver" park, residential buildings), emphasizing child casualties. TASS states Zakharova accuses Kyiv of purposefully striking children and parents in Donetsk. Kotsnews amplifies a video of an Azerbaijani allegedly pledging to "blow up Russians," fueling xenophobia and portraying UAF as supported by terrorists. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" directly blames former UAF Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny for the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage, a high-level disinformation tactic to discredit Ukrainian leadership. "Два майора" frames Ukrainian video game development as "popularization and financing of terrorism" by simulating Crimean bridge attacks, a new and aggressive form of demonization. TASS is now reporting Medvedev's claim that unfriendly states may deliberately introduce dangerous plants and microorganisms into RF, escalating biological warfare rhetoric. Mash na Donbasse reports on UAF shelling Donetsk, Yenakievo, and Makeevka, reinforcing the narrative of Ukrainian aggression.
  • Projecting Strength & Victory: RF IO actively publicizes successful strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure (Trypilska TPP, Cabinet of Ministers, DTEK enrichment plant, Novhorod-Siverskyi substation, Kremenchuk repair facilities) and C2 nodes (Ukrainian Government Headquarters, Sumy OVA, Starlink stations), presenting them as decisive blows. Claims of localized ground advances (Khoroshe, Sosnivka, Sofiyivka, Kolodezi) and the alleged "liberation" of Yunakivka are amplified to project a narrative of continuous success. Displays of captured Western equipment (Bradley IFV, VAB APC) are used to mock Western support and UAF capabilities. "Сливочный каприз" publishes graphics claiming daily advances in km² to project an unstoppable offensive. The delivery of new Su-35S jets and the first flight of the SJ-100 aircraft are highlighted to showcase industrial and military self-sufficiency. "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) promotes an esports player with a "Crimea is Russia" nickname, signaling an adaptation to incorporate patriotic messaging into popular culture. Kadyrov (RF) claims an Akhmat Special Purpose Regiment destroyed a Ukrainian tank in the Kharkiv direction, a clear IO effort to project military success and operational presence in Kharkiv. "AV БогомаZ" posts promoting local achievements in education and sports, and commemorating national heroes (Kalashnikov), subtly projecting strength and normalcy.
  • Sowing Discord & Undermining Western Support: RF media leverages statements by international figures like Donald Trump (on European leaders visiting the US for peace talks, dissatisfaction with the war) to imply weakening Western resolve or a shift in the geopolitical landscape. Peskov's statements on "rabid European militarism" and Medvedev's claims about Finland preparing for war are aimed at framing Western aid as escalatory and aggressive. Orbán's statements about Ukraine's partition into three zones are amplified to normalize the idea of territorial concessions. TASS reports on Medvedev claiming Eastern Finland suffers economically due to severed ties with Russia, aiming to generate dissent within NATO member states. TASS column by Medvedev directly implicates the EU in "heating up the idea" of Finland severing parts of RF territory, escalating anti-EU and anti-Finnish rhetoric. Colonelcassad promotes the narrative that former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba fled Kyiv, attempting to highlight internal Ukrainian political instability. Rybar posts propaganda image about "Gripen for so-called Ukraine," mocking Western military aid.
  • Internal Cohesion & Normalcy: Domestic IO focuses on pension proposals (Mironov), economic resilience (parallel imports, China's market access, X5 resuming Mars purchases, financial stability reports), high-speed rail construction, and cultural/religious events (Umar Kremlev and Egor Krid at religious procession, patriotic concerts) to project stability and normalcy despite the ongoing conflict. The Mitvol corruption case is used to project internal accountability. RF milbloggers (e.g., Rybar's maps, WarGonzo's summaries, Colonelcassad's map changes) continue to provide a high volume of real-time content for domestic consumption, reinforcing state narratives. The launch of Putin's official channel on Max messenger centralizes communication. TASS reporting a recall of Lada vehicles, if managed well, could portray transparency, or expose an internal vulnerability. The "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" post featuring a woman from Omsk expressing grievances about the treatment of fallen soldiers could be an internal IO risk, indicating potential discontent despite censorship. This could be leveraged by UAF IO. TASS reports on Russian police establishing identities of teenagers who abused an elderly woman in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, a domestic IO effort to showcase law enforcement effectiveness. Colonelcassad posts photo messages about a monument to Stalin unveiled in Murmansk, an internal IO effort to evoke Soviet-era nostalgia and reinforce nationalistic sentiment. TASS reports on Putin's participation in the BRICS online summit via video link from Sochi, for domestic and international IO to project Russia's continued role in global diplomacy. Rybar's video on Kaliningrad's migration issues is likely an internal IO piece aimed at addressing domestic concerns about social cohesion and security. TASS report on Duma deputies proposing automatic bank account unblocking after debt payment is a domestic IO effort to project responsiveness to citizen concerns. Alex Parker Returns posts images related to obtaining driving licenses, likely a routine domestic police/traffic-related update intended to show normalcy. Два майора reports Azerbaijani diaspora leader Mamedov withdrew from elections in Ivanovo, a domestic political update. Новости Москвы video of escalator etiquette is a non-military, domestic social commentary, portraying normalcy. Colonelcassad reports on the detention of "arrogant guests from Azerbaijan" in St. Petersburg, leveraging law enforcement action for domestic IO, possibly to project control over internal immigration issues. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts a video about planting a tree in Makhachkala in honor of soldiers missing or killed, an internal RF IO effort to commemorate fallen soldiers.
  • Psychological Operations: TASS's video of a captured Ukrainian soldier alleging UAF uses school buses for troop transport aims to discredit UAF mobilization. Narratives of UAF soldiers surrendering due to propaganda leaflets are pushed to demoralize UAF. Claims of eliminating US mercenaries are amplified to deter foreign volunteers. Colonelcassad's report of "The Buzzer" radio station coming online could be a psychological operation to signal strategic importance. "Alex Parker Returns" promotes "Ukrainian startup" which is likely a sarcastic post or a form of black humor used to denigrate UAF efforts. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video alleging that regular suicides among RF servicemen are becoming a "Russian cultural phenomenon," which could be a psychological operation to demoralize RF forces and highlight their internal issues. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) shares a video of a Ukrainian Rada deputy discussing "self-will" (desertion) among Ukrainian soldiers, aiming to demoralize UAF and highlight perceived internal weaknesses. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts images claiming "slutty bots are attacking", likely a reference to online counter-propaganda or cyber attacks, contributing to a narrative of being under information siege. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) actively propagates that Kyiv, Odesa, and other Ukrainian cities could be without heating this winter due to attacks, a clear psychological operation to induce fear and panic. MoD Russia releases a video of a Russian serviceman expressing disillusionment and questioning his role as an "assault trooper," which is highly unusual and could be used by UAF for IO.
• UAF Counter-Propaganda (Defensive & Resilience-Focused):
  • Highlighting RF Atrocities: UAF IO emphasizes civilian casualties (Kyiv, Dobropillia, Zaporizhzhia, Nikopol region), damage to government buildings (Ukrainian Government HQ, Cabinet of Ministers, Sumy OVA), humanitarian aid destruction (warehouse in Kryvyi Rih), and RF mining of residential areas in Kherson to galvanize international condemnation and domestic resolve. The EU Ambassador displaying Iskander remnants (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) is a direct counter to RF denial. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo messages highlighting the death of a mare (Freili), saved from Bucha, in a Russian strike in Kyiv Oblast, used for IO to emphasize RF atrocities against non-combatants and civilians. РБК-Україна reports that IAEA Head Grossi states 6 out of 7 pillars of nuclear safety at the Zaporizhzhia NPP have been violated, highlighting the dangers of RF occupation.
  • Celebrating UAF Successes: UAF IO highlights successful air defense (112/142 UAVs intercepted, Iskander-K shootdown), localized ground gains (Zarichne, 58 sq. km in August), deep strikes (bridges in RF, Crimea power outages, Khabarovsk explosion), cyber successes (GUR access to fuel card servers), counter-intelligence successes (NABU mole), and destruction of high-value RF assets (TOS-1A, BM-27 Uragan, 2100 tanks claimed destroyed by SBU). Regular updates on RF personnel losses are used to boost morale. Zelenskiy's video celebrating Military Intelligence Day serves as a significant morale boost and IO effort. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a graphic claiming SBU has destroyed 2100 Russian tanks, a strong IO effort to highlight UAF military effectiveness and demoralize RF forces. UAF General Staff video featuring a soldier's "love for mortars" aims to boost morale and highlight effectiveness. STERNENKO video of drone footage (thermal/low-light) with donation calls suggests ongoing successful UAF drone operations. UAF video (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) showing a bound man on a rural road, labeled as "Russian naked standing," likely represents a successful psychological operation or capture/interdiction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС drone footage showing successful engagements against Russian targets for morale and psychological impact. UAF General Staff posts photos of a "Psychological Obstacle Course" for cadets, demonstrating ongoing training to build resilience and combat readiness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS showcases remnants of the Iskander-K missile, reinforcing the narrative of RF's advanced weapon use against C2. Zelenskiy's video address at the Staff meeting providing updates on air defense, drone production, and front-line situation is a comprehensive UAF IO effort.
  • Mobilizing Support & Resilience: Continuous fundraising efforts (for drones, vehicles), promotion of SSO training courses, and recognition of military families' psychological needs ("Коло Дій 2.0," Coordination Staff for Treatment of POWs initiatives) aim to foster national unity and support for the armed forces. Public advisories (Yasno CEO on charging devices) manage expectations and promote civilian resilience during energy attacks. The chess tournament for veterans in Zaporizhzhia is a local IO effort to promote community and veteran well-being. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація's videos promoting safe offline education for children in Zaporizhzhia demonstrate the community's resilience and adaptive measures to maintain normalcy amidst conflict, which indirectly boosts morale. The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" shares an emotional video, featuring a female sergeant reflecting on the personal and collective sacrifices in the conflict and expressing unwavering commitment to fighting for Ukraine, which highlights morale and resilience of UAF personnel. Оперативний ЗСУ's new medical notification system via Diia highlights an adaptive digital service for citizens, fostering public trust and showcasing governmental responsiveness. STERNENKO prompts for donations for "rusorez" (Russian cutting), directly contributing to fundraising and morale.
  • International Coordination: The reporting on the upcoming "Ramstein" format meeting underscores continued international military assistance and coordination. Highlighting US visa changes for Ukrainian citizens abroad, while not direct IO, provides critical information for the diaspora. РБК-Україна reports that Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó has announced a meeting with Ihor Sybiha, indicating continued bilateral diplomatic efforts with key European partners. STERNENKO reports Merz's statement that Putin's plans are not limited to Ukraine, used to rally international support and underscore shared threat perception.
  • Countering RF Narratives: UAF IO actively refutes RF claims of military success (e.g., counter-maps for Pokrovsk) and challenges disinformation regarding UAF conduct. Critiques of Orban's "scandalous statement" about Ukraine's division are used to rally international support against Russian influence. UAF is pushing back against RF attempts to establish fire control over Sloviansk outskirts through operational reports. UAF photo message (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦) reporting charges against women protesting TCCs in Vinnytsia could be used to highlight the severity of the internal situation, potentially for international awareness or to reflect public sentiment. РБК-Україна's advisory to avoid a specific highway in Kharkiv Oblast, implicitly for security reasons, demonstrates transparent information dissemination to protect civilians. Operativny ZSU dismisses Putin's statement on Ukraine joining the EU as "pissing in the ears to please Trump," a direct counter-IO.

4.2. Public sentiment and morale factors (Confidence: HIGH)

• Ukrainian Public Sentiment:
  • Resilience and Determination (HIGH): Despite the continuous and devastating RF strikes on critical infrastructure and civilian areas (Kyiv, Dobropillia, Zaporizhzhia, Nikopol region), public sentiment likely remains largely resilient. The rapid response and transparency from UAF officials, including civilian administrations (Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia OVA, Kharkiv), and efforts to restore services, help maintain morale. Calls for unity and commemoration (nationwide minutes of silence) reinforce collective resolve. The psychological support programs for military families are critical for long-term morale. The chess tournament for veterans further supports this. Zelenskiy's video celebrating Military Intelligence Day, and the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade's emotional video, reinforce national pride and commitment to fighting. The Zaporizhzhia OVA's promotion of safe offline education for children underscores community resilience. The UAF General Staff video on mortars implies strong morale among frontline soldiers. UAF General Staff photos of cadets undergoing psychological obstacle courses emphasize an institutional commitment to building mental and emotional resilience, which can boost public confidence in the armed forces. The successful deployment of medical notifications via Diia suggests responsiveness to citizen needs, fostering public trust. Zelenskiy's video address outlining efforts for air defense and drone production aims to reassure the public of ongoing strategic efforts.
  • Vulnerability and Anxiety (MEDIUM): The sheer scale of RF air attacks (142 UAVs, 13 missiles overnight), confirmed strikes on government buildings, and persistent threats to energy supply (Trypilska TPP, Shostka power outages, Kremenchuk repair facilities) undoubtedly cause significant anxiety. Warnings from officials to charge devices indicate a conscious effort to manage public expectations around energy security. The continued shelling and casualties in front-line regions (Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Nikopol) weigh heavily on local populations. The severe flooding in Kyiv adds a layer of immediate hardship and logistical challenges, contributing to public anxiety. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts highlighting the death of a mare (Freili), saved from Bucha, in a Russian strike, could evoke public sadness and anger against RF. РБК-Україна's advisory to avoid a specific highway in Kharkiv Oblast, implicitly for security reasons, suggests ongoing threats to civilian safety and travel, contributing to anxiety. Operatsiya Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) actively propagating that Kyiv, Odesa, and other Ukrainian cities could be without heating this winter due to attacks is a direct attempt to induce panic and erode public confidence.
  • Frustration/Fatigue (LOW-MEDIUM): The ongoing conflict, combined with resource requirements (fundraising for vehicles), can lead to fatigue. However, successful UAF actions (air defense, localized gains, deep strikes) likely mitigate widespread frustration. The reported suicide of a police officer in Kryvyi Rih, while potentially isolated, could reflect broader societal stress. The death of journalist Takhtai in Sumy Oblast investigating fortification corruption, if widely publicized and not adequately addressed, could erode public trust in government institutions. New report of three women charged for protesting TCCs in Vinnytsia indicates a potential undercurrent of public discontent or fatigue related to mobilization, which could impact morale if not carefully managed. Reports of widespread desertion among Ukrainian soldiers (Операция Z) would severely impact public trust and morale if widely believed.
• Russian Public Sentiment:
  • Reinforced Nationalistic Support (HIGH): RF IO's relentless narrative of strength, military success, and portrayal of Ukraine as an aggressor (Donetsk attacks) likely continues to bolster support for the "SMO." Domestic-focused content (pension proposals, economic reports, cultural events, local infrastructure projects, patriotic concerts) aims to project normalcy and a caring government, contributing to stability. The focus on internal security successes (FSB detentions, Samara fines against drone activity, detention of Moldovan police chief involved in human trafficking) reinforces a sense of protection. Colonelcassad's posts about a Stalin monument in Murmansk and Putin's participation in BRICS are designed to foster nationalistic sentiment and pride. Celebration of the Chief of General Staff's birthday boosts morale within the military and amongst its supporters. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts about planting a tree in Makhachkala for fallen soldiers, an internal IO effort to commemorate the human cost while maintaining nationalistic resolve. ASTRA reports on commission members wearing body armor and helmets during early elections in Belgorod Oblast, which, while indicating danger, may also be framed domestically as a necessary measure to protect democratic processes from Ukrainian threats.
  • Limited Dissent/Awareness of Costs (LOW): While some reports mention internal issues (Mitvol corruption, unsolved murder of CEO, FSB incident in Magadan, unsold housing in St. Petersburg, Lada recall, Omsk incident regarding fallen soldiers' treatment, Kaliningrad migration issues, Mamedov withdrawal from elections, Molotov cocktails at FSB Magadan), these are either quickly contained or framed within a narrative of effective governance. The death of a 2007-born soldier, though tragic, is likely framed as a sacrifice for the nation, not a reason for dissent. Public awareness of the full costs of the war is suppressed by state media control. The "МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники" post of a woman from Omsk expressing grievances is a potential crack in this narrative, indicating that the human cost is being felt and can be voiced, even if in controlled channels. The decapitated body of a CEO in Kaliningrad, while presented as a crime, might generate underlying public unease. Mash na Donbasse reporting on drug trafficking in Luhansk could reflect underlying social issues in occupied territories, potentially impacting public confidence in governance. The ASTRA report about the children's play being deemed "discrediting" the Armed Forces highlights the severe suppression of dissent and could foster resentment among those who oppose the war but fear speaking out. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's complaint about "slutty bots" attacking indicates internal frustration within the RF online community, potentially from those trying to maintain morale against perceived cyber/IO threats. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС releases a video of a woman complaining about fuel shortages and ration cards, highlighting domestic economic problems, which could challenge the narrative of normalcy. MoD Russia releases a video of a serviceman expressing disillusionment; if this is an authentic internal message, it indicates significant morale issues within the RF armed forces, but its source and context require further validation.
  • External Threats and Unity: The narrative of "rabid European militarism" and Medvedev's claims about Finland preparing for war and the EU "heating up the idea" of Finland severing parts of RF territory are likely used to foster a sense of external threat, encouraging national unity against perceived adversaries. Medvedev's new claim that unfriendly states may deliberately introduce dangerous plants and microorganisms into RF further fuels this external threat narrative.

4.3. International support and diplomatic developments (Confidence: HIGH)

• Support for Ukraine (Sustained but Complex):
  • Military Aid Coordination: The announcement of an online "Ramstein" format meeting tomorrow (08 SEP) signifies continued international commitment to coordinating military assistance to Ukraine. This is a critical mechanism for ensuring sustained support. Germany extending its management of Rosneft assets for six months demonstrates continued financial pressure on RF.
  • Sanctions and Economic Pressure: The EU Commission's intention to propose a 19th package of sanctions against Russia by 12 SEP, and reports of an EU delegation visiting Washington to discuss sanctions, indicate ongoing efforts to pressure Russia economically. Latvia's intent to introduce national sanctions also reinforces this.
  • Diplomatic Condemnation (Expected): The confirmed Iskander-K strike on the Cabinet of Ministers and the EU Ambassador's public display of missile remnants will likely lead to strong international diplomatic condemnation of RF's targeting of governmental C2. German politician Merz's warning about Putin's broader plans reinforces the need for continued vigilance among Western allies.
  • Challenges and Geopolitical Shifts: Donald Trump's statements about European leaders discussing a "deal on Ukraine" and his expectation to speak with Putin introduce a layer of complexity and potential uncertainty regarding future Western diplomatic unity and potential peace terms. Orbán's statements about Ukraine's partition are also concerning as they echo RF narratives. Trump-Jr.'s inflammatory social media posts targeting Ukrainian flag supporters further contribute to divisive narratives.
  • NATO Vigilance: The operation of a US RC-135V Rivet Joint along the RF border indicates continued NATO vigilance and intelligence gathering in the region. Germany's civil defense modernization and Bundeswehr exercises in Lithuania also underscore ongoing NATO strengthening. Rybar (RF) reports Erik Prince's interest in buying Ukrainian drone companies, indicating continued Western commercial interest in the Ukrainian defense sector and potential for future support.
  • Bilateral Diplomacy: РБК-Україна reports that Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó has announced a meeting with Ihor Sybiha, indicating continued bilateral diplomatic efforts with key European partners.
• Support for Russia (Limited but Persistent):
  • China Economic Support: The Financial Times report (amplified by RF IO) that China is opening access to its capital market for Russia is a significant development, demonstrating continued, albeit perhaps cautious, economic support from a key partner.
  • Global South Outreach: RF's continued humanitarian aid operations in Afghanistan and Putin's participation in the BRICS online summit are efforts to project global reach and humanitarian concern, potentially garnering support from non-aligned nations and countering Western narratives. TASS reports Putin connected to the BRICS online summit via video link from Sochi, demonstrating RF's continued engagement with non-Western blocs. BRICS members agreeing to interact on the "Ukrainian crisis" indicates a level of diplomatic acceptance for RF's framing.
  • Diplomatic Isolation/Pushback: Russia's summoning of the Argentine Ambassador due to "anti-Russian statements" highlights its sensitivity to international criticism and attempts to exert diplomatic pressure. The proposed denunciation of the European Convention for the Prevention of Torture further indicates a rejection of Western legal norms. The death of a Russian citizen political prisoner in Belarus could generate international scrutiny towards Belarus and indirectly RF, potentially complicating diplomatic efforts. TASS reporting Houthi drone strikes on Israel and Medevev's statements on Finland and the EU aim to divert international attention from Ukraine to other global flashpoints or perceived threats to RF. TASS reports Houthi claims of new strikes on Ben-Gurion and Ramon airports in Israel, demonstrating an RF effort to highlight other global conflicts and potentially undermine international focus on Ukraine.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most likely enemy courses of action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

• RF Ground Offensive on Pokrovsk Axis: RF will continue and intensify its ground offensive on the Pokrovsk axis, aiming for a decisive breakthrough. This will involve combined arms assaults, leveraging artillery, KABs, and advanced drone support (including FPV drone carriers) to suppress UAF defenses and exploit any weaknesses. RF will commit additional experienced units as needed. They will likely attempt to consolidate recent gains in Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts. STERNENKO's report of a halted mechanized assault indicates RF's continued commitment to this MLCOA. RF will also likely increase attempts to establish fire control over the outskirts of Sloviansk, possibly as a preparatory step for further advances in that direction. Expect continued localized advances and engagements on the Kramatorsk-Druzhkivka direction, as highlighted by RF claims of Starlink station destruction. Colonelcassad's updated maps indicate a continued focus on advances towards Sofiyivka and Shakhove, and around Pokrovsk. RF will conduct spoiling attacks against UAF positions in and around the newly liberated Zarichne.
• Sustained Deep Strike Campaign: RF will maintain a high tempo of precision missile and mass drone strikes across Ukraine. The primary targets will remain:
  • Energy Infrastructure: Thermal power plants (like Trypilska TPP), substations (like Novhorod-Siverskyi), and other critical energy nodes, particularly in Kyiv Oblast and other major regions, to degrade Ukraine's ability to sustain winter operations and civilian life. This will include repair facilities, as shown by strikes in Kremenchuk.
  • Military-Industrial Complex (MIC): Facilities supporting UAF's defense production and repair capabilities, including enrichment plants (DTEK).
  • Logistical Nodes: Railway junctions, bridges (if not adequately protected or if new targets are identified), and fuel depots to disrupt the flow of Western aid and internal Ukrainian supplies. RF will continue to use FPV drones for tactical interdiction on logistical routes (e.g., Kherson-Mykolaiv highway) and against civilian targets in frontline areas (e.g., Nikopol region).
  • Governmental C2: Continued, albeit opportunistic, targeting of governmental administrative buildings, even if symbolic, to undermine state function and create psychological pressure, as seen with the Iskander strike on the Cabinet of Ministers.
• Intensified Information and Psychological Warfare: RF IO will heavily exploit any perceived UAF setbacks or civilian casualties (e.g., in Donetsk, Dobropillia, Nikopol) to demonize Ukraine and its Western partners. They will continue to promote narratives of RF strength, Western weakness, and a shifting global order, including highly inflammatory claims (e.g., Zaluzhny sabotaged Nord Stream, Ukrainian video games promoting terrorism, Kuleba's flight, Moldovan police kidnapping Ukrainian migrants). Domestically, efforts will focus on maintaining social cohesion and projecting normalcy (e.g., new economic policies, infrastructure projects), while managing internal discontent (e.g., Omsk incident, Kaliningrad migration, Mamedov withdrawal, "slutty bots", fuel shortages). RF will adapt IO to counter any UAF deep strike successes. RF IO will likely amplify Kadyrov's claims of tank destruction in Kharkiv, and TASS reports of UAF infantry/equipment destruction in Dronovka, to project ongoing military success. RF will also likely leverage the reported death of journalist Takhtai to highlight alleged Ukrainian corruption. RF will continue to use narratives about "rabid European militarism" and Medvedev's claims about Finland/EU to further sow discord within NATO and paint European support for Ukraine as aggressive. Medvedev's new claim about unfriendly states introducing dangerous plants and microorganisms will be used to escalate biological warfare rhetoric and create internal fear. RF IO will actively promote the narrative that Ukrainian cities will be without heating this winter. RF will continue warnings about scam calls, blending domestic protection with the broader narrative of external threats. The MoD Russia video of a disillusioned serviceman, if authenticated as RF-produced, represents a complex new MLCOA for IO, potentially aimed at external audiences or testing internal narratives.
• Continued Border Pressure: RF will maintain pressure along the Sumy and Kharkiv borders, using ground probing attacks, KAB strikes, and special forces operations to pin down UAF forces and prevent their redeployment to other critical sectors. Reconnaissance UAVs will be consistently deployed in these areas.

5.2. Most dangerous enemy courses of action (MDCOA) (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• RF Breakthrough on Pokrovsk and Exploitation: RF achieves a decisive breakthrough on the Pokrovsk axis, leading to a rapid and deep penetration of UAF defensive lines, potentially enabling encirclement operations or creating a direct threat to major urban centers further west. This would severely degrade UAF's ability to stabilize the front and could force a large-scale strategic withdrawal.
• Disruptive Hybrid Attack on NATO Infrastructure: Following the Shahed incursion into Polish airspace and Medvedev's rhetoric against Finland, and the "UVB-76" radio station coming online, RF launches a hybrid attack (cyber, sabotage, deniable drone/missile strikes) on critical infrastructure within a NATO member state, aimed at testing NATO's Article 5 response threshold and sowing internal discord within the alliance, while maintaining deniability. The discovery of the decapitated CEO in Kaliningrad could be leveraged or linked to such actions. The sudden activation of "The Buzzer" is particularly concerning in this context. The RF IO framing of a Ukrainian video game as "terrorism financing" by targeting the Crimean bridge may be a psychological priming for such actions against NATO infrastructure. Medvedev's direct implication of the EU in Finland's hypothetical territorial claims could be a precursor to such an MDCOA.
• Overwhelming Combined Arms Assault on a Secondary Axis: RF shifts significant reserves to a secondary axis (e.g., Kupyansk-Lyman or Zaporizhzhia) after a successful shaping operation, launching a large-scale, synchronized offensive designed to split UAF forces and create a multi-front crisis. This could be accompanied by a surge in EW and cyber-attacks to blind UAF C2. This is particularly dangerous given the new reports of RF attempting fire control over Sloviansk outskirts, potentially as a precursor to a larger offensive.
• Escalated Civilian Targeting with Intent to Induce Mass Migration: RF deliberately and systematically targets urban civilian centers with precision strikes and mass UAV attacks to break civilian morale, induce mass migration, and overwhelm Ukraine's social and humanitarian infrastructure. This would be combined with intensified IO portraying Ukraine as a failed state unable to protect its citizens. This risk is heightened by the heavy civilian casualties reported and RF's aggressive IO framing of UAF as targeting civilians and the new RF IO narrative of Ukrainian cities being without heating.

5.3. Timeline estimates and decision points (Confidence: MEDIUM)

• Next 24-48 Hours (Tactical/Operational):
  • Decision Point: UAF must assess the immediate impact of the Iskander-K strike on the Cabinet of Ministers. If C2 is significantly degraded, alternative command structures or redundancy measures must be activated. Zelenskiy's Staff meeting addressed this, but implementation is key.
  • Decision Point: UAF must assess the specific nature and scale of RF's impending ground offensive on the Pokrovsk axis. Timely deployment of reserves and activation of long-range fire plans will be critical within this timeframe. The Phoenix Aviation Systems (Phoenix Gv BAS) halting a mechanized assault provides a short-term success, but UAF must anticipate follow-on waves.
  • Decision Point: Kyiv's thunderstorm and flooding will create immediate logistical challenges and potential vulnerabilities. UAF must adapt urban defense and relief operations.
  • Decision Point (RF): RF will likely observe the effects of Kyiv's flooding and adapt its drone/missile campaign accordingly, potentially favoring targets less affected by weather or exploiting disruption.
  • Decision Point (UAF): The reports of protests against TCCs in Vinnytsia will require an immediate response from Ukrainian authorities to manage public sentiment and ensure mobilization efforts remain effective.
  • Decision Point (UAF): The reported strike on Kremenchuk repair facilities requires an immediate assessment of damage and capacity to repair military equipment, and contingency planning for alternative repair sites.
  • Decision Point (UAF): UAF Air Force ballistic missile threat from the east requires immediate response and defensive posture. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's repeated "ATTENTION" alerts signal high readiness for immediate threats.
• Next 72 Hours (Operational/Strategic):
  • Decision Point: The outcome of tomorrow's "Ramstein" meeting will be critical for assessing sustained international military support and potential new aid packages in response to the escalated RF targeting.
  • Decision Point: NATO/Polish assessment of the Shahed incursion will determine the alliance's diplomatic and potential military response, setting a precedent for future airspace violations. The "UVB-76" activation should be a key part of this assessment.
  • Decision Point (RF): RF will assess UAF reactions to its deep strike campaign on energy infrastructure and attempts to gain fire control over Sloviansk, adjusting targeting and ground operations accordingly.
  • Decision Point (RF): RF will likely continue to probe the Sumy border to test UAF defenses following their claims of "operational space."
  • Decision Point (RF): RF will assess the international reaction to the IAEA's report on Zaporizhzhia NPP safety violations and potentially adapt its posture or IO regarding the plant.
• Next 1-2 Weeks (Strategic):
  • Decision Point: The EU Commission's proposal for the 19th sanctions package by 12 SEP will be a key indicator of continued international economic pressure on RF.
  • Decision Point: The ability of Ukraine to rapidly repair and adapt its energy and logistics networks in the face of continuous RF strikes and environmental factors (flooding) will determine its resilience and ability to sustain operations through the upcoming winter.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

1. CRITICAL (NEW): RF Strategic C2 Capabilities (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, IMINT, OSINT): What is the exact purpose and operational significance of the "UVB-76" radio station coming online? Is this indicative of a higher alert status for strategic forces, a communications test, or an IO operation? Priority collection on identifying any unusual activity associated with RF strategic command.
2. CRITICAL (PERSISTING): Full Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) on Cabinet of Ministers (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT): Obtain detailed BDA on the Iskander-K strike on the Cabinet of Ministers building. Specifically, assess the extent of damage to internal C2 infrastructure, identify any key personnel casualties or disruptions, and evaluate the operational impact on Ukrainian governmental functions. Cross-reference EU Ambassador's photo evidence with other sources.
3. CRITICAL (PERSISTING): RF Force Generation on Pokrovsk Axis (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT): Continue high-priority collection on RF force composition, strength, and disposition on the Pokrovsk axis. Identify any new unit deployments, logistical build-ups, and pre-assault indicators that signal the precise timing and main effort of the offensive.
4. HIGH (NEW): Impact of Kyiv Flooding on Operations (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT, IMINT): Assess the immediate and projected impact of the severe flooding in Kyiv on UAF logistical routes, civilian infrastructure, and potential RF exploitation opportunities. Monitor for any RF IO efforts to leverage the flooding.
5. HIGH (NEW): RF Targeting Methodology for Energy Infrastructure (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: TECHINT, SIGINT): Analyze RF targeting patterns and munition types used against energy infrastructure (Trypilska TPP, Novhorod-Siverskyi substation, DTEK plant, Kremenchuk repair facilities). Are there specific vulnerabilities RF is exploiting? Are they adapting to previous Ukrainian defensive measures or repair efforts?
6. HIGH (PERSISTING): UAF Air Defense Capacity vs. RF Production (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: SIGINT, TECHINT, OSINT): Re-verify the estimated RF production capacity of Shahed drones (2700/month). Model UAF air defense munition expenditure rates against this production. Where are the critical pinch points in RF's drone production and supply chain that UAF can exploit?
7. MEDIUM (NEW): RF Intent on Sloviansk Outskirts (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT): Obtain intelligence on RF's specific intentions and capabilities related to establishing "fire control" over Sloviansk outskirts. Is this a precursor to a ground assault, or a long-range fire interdiction effort?
8. MEDIUM (NEW): Internal Ukrainian Mobilization Sentiment (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: HUMINT, OSINT): Monitor public sentiment regarding mobilization efforts, specifically the protests against TCCs in Vinnytsia and the reported widespread desertion. Assess the scale, organization, and potential for these sentiments to spread and impact military recruitment.
9. MEDIUM (NEW): RF Response to Donetsk Attack (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, SIGINT): Monitor RF statements and actions following Zakharova's threat of a "response" to the Donetsk attack. Identify potential targets, timing, and nature of this "response" (e.g., increased shelling, missile strikes on specific urban areas).
10. MEDIUM (NEW): Internal RF Stability and Dissension (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, HUMINT): Monitor the impact of incidents like the Omsk soldier's family grievances, the Kaliningrad CEO's death, the Molotov cocktail incident at FSB Magadan, and the MoD Russia video of a disillusioned serviceman on Russian public sentiment. Are these isolated incidents or signs of broader internal instability? How is RF IO managing these narratives, including the "slutty bots" claims and fuel shortages? Monitor for any public reactions to the ASTRA report on the children's play being labeled "discrediting" the army.
11. MEDIUM (NEW): RF IO on "Bridge Hunter" Game (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT): Analyze the reach and impact of RF's "Bridge Hunter" IO campaign. How is it being received domestically and internationally? Is it shifting narratives or justifying specific actions?
12. LOW (NEW): RF Sumy Axis Ground Truth (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: IMINT, HUMINT): Prioritize efforts to confirm or deny RF claims of capturing Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast, and assess the current ground force disposition and threat level in the Sumy region.
13. LOW (NEW): RF Belgorod Security Measures (COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: OSINT, IMINT): Monitor the extent and perceived necessity of security measures (body armor, helmets for election commission members) in Belgorod Oblast. Assess if this signifies an actual escalation of perceived threat or is an IO effort.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Elevate Strategic C2 Protection and Redundancy: Given the direct Iskander-K strike on the Cabinet of Ministers, immediately review and implement enhanced physical and cyber security measures for all national-level C2 nodes and critical government buildings. Prioritize relocation or hardening of essential functions if feasible. Establish and regularly test redundant command and communication channels to ensure continuity of government and military operations.
2. Reinforce Pokrovsk with All Available Assets and Adaptive Defenses: Prioritize the deployment of all available operational reserves, including artillery, armored units, and FPV drone capabilities, to the Pokrovsk axis. Implement a multi-layered defense-in-depth strategy, integrating effective counter-battery fire and pre-planned long-range precision strikes against RF assault formations. Adapt defensive postures to account for RF's demonstrated use of elite units and combined arms tactics, particularly in urban and fortified areas, with a focus on Sofiyivka, Shakhove, and Pokrovsk.
3. Sustain & Adapt Deep Strike Operations with a Focus on Attribution: Continue and expand deep strike operations against RF energy, logistics, and military-industrial targets within RF territory and occupied areas. Prioritize targets that directly support the Pokrovsk offensive or degrade RF's long-range strike capabilities. Leverage GUR cyber capabilities for continued disruption. For all significant deep strikes, immediately conduct and disseminate clear attribution to counter RF disinformation and maintain international support. Consider targeting specific repair facilities in Russia that are known to service military equipment, as well as critical logistical hubs on the Kramatorsk-Druzhkivka direction.
4. Proactive Air Defense Maneuver, Sustainment, and Counter-Drone Innovation: Implement dynamic air defense redeployment strategies to counter evolving RF UAV corridors and missile trajectories, particularly in anticipation of further strikes on energy infrastructure and new threats to Sloviansk outskirts. Expedite procurement and delivery of air defense munitions and counter-drone systems, specifically including capabilities to detect and counter FPV drone carriers and new RF drone tactics (e.g., those used to destroy Starlink stations). Integrate Barracuda USVs more broadly for coastal defense and reconnaissance to counter naval threats and gather intelligence. Reassess air defense posture for eastern ballistic missile threats.
5. Intensify Counter-Hybrid Warfare Measures and Information Resilience: Develop and disseminate robust, evidence-based counter-narratives to immediately discredit RF propaganda, especially those related to civilian casualties, alleged UAF war crimes, and inflammatory claims (e.g., Nord Stream sabotage, "Bridge Hunter" game, Kuleba's flight, Moldovan police kidnapping Ukrainian migrants, Medvedev's biological warfare rhetoric, RF claims of Ukrainian cities without heating). Proactively address internal grievances that RF IO might exploit, including the Vinnytsia protests against TCCs and reports of desertion among soldiers. Enhance public advisories for civilian resilience during energy attacks and natural disasters. Prioritize communication regarding the death of journalist Takhtai, ensuring transparency and addressing any allegations of corruption. Leverage the new Diia medical notification system to enhance communication and citizen trust during crises. Consider strategic messaging around the MoD Russia video of a disillusioned serviceman, if its authenticity can be verified.
6. Urgent Diplomatic Engagement on Strategic Threats and Humanitarian Impact: Leverage tomorrow's "Ramstein" meeting and other international forums to highlight the critical threat posed by RF's strikes on C2 and energy, secure commitments for increased air defense and rapid repair capabilities, and obtain clear red lines from NATO regarding airspace violations and hybrid attacks. Emphasize the humanitarian impact of RF strikes and urban flooding, seeking international aid for civilian populations. Highlight IAEA's report on Zaporizhzhia NPP safety violations to galvanize international pressure on Russia to demilitarize the plant.

//END REPORT//