Situation Report

SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - 071103Z SEP 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

RF forces continue multi-axis ground offensives, with primary effort on the Pokrovsk axis, where UAF confirmed repelling approximately 350 attacks in the past week. Deep strikes persist on Ukrainian energy, industrial, and civilian infrastructure, with a significant increase in volume and geographic spread of Shahed-type UAV and ballistic/cruise missile attacks. Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, Kremenchuk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro and Odesa have been heavily targeted. Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) maintain defensive posture, conduct counter-drone operations, and execute deep strikes into RF territory. RF continues to advance, claiming capture of "New World" settlement and Shandryholove, and now claims liberation of 'Khoroshe' in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Renewed drone activity targeted Chernihiv, Sumy, Kyiv, and Kharkiv, with Zaporizhzhia experiencing significant damage to civilian infrastructure and a marked increase in civilian casualties. A new RF drone has been reported near Lutsk, and an explosion in Kharkiv. Air raid alerts are active in Lipetsk Oblast and other RF regions. RF claims 31 UAF UAVs destroyed over its territory in four hours. Volgograd airport flight restrictions were lifted. RF IO intensifies with new claims of "Colombian mercenaries" eliminated and further attempts to destabilize Ukrainian public sentiment regarding Maidan. UAF intelligence assesses RF capable of another mobilization, despite internal pain. Explosions reported in Dnipro. RF claims a breakthrough at Kupyansk, while RF state media amplifies narratives of Western warmongering and RF peace initiatives. RF command structure changes include two artillery regiments receiving 'Guards' status. RF milbloggers are claiming a "massive raid" of 116 "Geraniums" across Ukraine, including Kyiv. RF propaganda is also attempting to link UAF to "human traffickers" in Zaporizhzhia and is mocking Polish-made drones. RF deep strike activity initiated towards Kirovohrad Oblast (Znamianka) and Poltava Oblast (Svitlovodsk/Kremenchuk), with Kremenchuk confirmed under attack by a large drone group (12 Shahed-type UAVs), and additional 3 Shahed-type UAVs confirmed inbound to Kremenchuk and 3 Shahed-type UAVs towards Kropyvnytskyi. RF milbloggers are expressing intentions to exceed previous casualty records with massed strikes, and are amplifying Wall Street Journal reports on Putin's attrition strategy. TASS claims RF advances southeast of Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast, despite UAF pressure. Explosions have been reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including in the Shevchenkivskyi district of Zaporizhzhia city. RF milbloggers are claiming significant advances in Kupyansk, expecting "interesting news" by morning. Air raid alerts were active in Volyn Oblast due to a Shahed-type UAV. Further Shahed-type UAVs were reported inbound to Starokostiantyniv (Khmelnytskyi Oblast) and Znamianka (Kirovohrad Oblast), and Reshetylivka (Poltava Oblast) was under attack. One Shahed-type UAV was also reported over Dnipro. Temporary flight restrictions were introduced at Nizhny Novgorod airport (RF) and at Zhukovsky airport (RF). RF milbloggers are expressing dismissive attitudes towards Kremenchuk, despite ongoing strikes, and are using dehumanizing language related to sheltering children in basements. RF milbloggers report "several hundred" Shahed-type UAVs ("Khryakonaklonitely") in Ukrainian airspace, with more appearing. TASS reports RF forces are gradually withdrawing from Serebryanka (DNR) and consolidating positions outside the settlement, pushing UAF out of nearby Dronovka. This indicates localized RF repositioning and offensive action in the Donetsk axis. A Shahed-type UAV was reported towards Kovel (Volyn Oblast), and another towards Pivdenne/Koblevo (Odesa Oblast). Two Shahed-type UAVs were reported inbound to Kryvyi Rih. Multiple explosions are reported in Kyiv, with burning vehicles on a parking lot in Svyatoshynskyi district due to RF attack. Ballistic missile launches from Crimea were reported targeting Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Three Shahed-type UAVs were over Kyiv, and two were approaching Zaporizhzhia from the north. An RF milblogger shares a video of an alleged UAF soldier stating his intention to go abroad, indicating continued RF information operations targeting UAF morale and mobilization. Explosions are reported in Kryvyi Rih. RF deep strikes are impacting residential multi-story buildings in Kyiv's Svyatoshynskyi district, causing fires. Kremenchuk is experiencing dozens of explosions, leading to widespread power outages in parts of the city. RF President Putin is presented with latest engine production by Rostec in Samara, emphasizing domestic military-industrial capabilities. Three individuals have died in an explosion in a tunnel in Khabarovsk Krai, RF. RF has launched additional high-speed targets towards Kryvyi Rih. Renewed explosions are confirmed in Zaporizhzhia, targeting an enterprise. RF Shahed-type UAVs are attacking Odesa, with explosions confirmed, and a significant new group of 8 UAVs reported targeting Usatove/Odesa/Chornomorsk. Additional 11 Shahed-type UAVs from Kharkiv Oblast are inbound towards Samar/Dnipro. In Kyiv's Svyatoshynskyi district, another 9-story building is ablaze, and a warehouse fire is reported. In Kyiv's Darnitskyi district, a 4-story building has partial third-floor destruction. In Kyiv, one person has died in Svyatoshynskyi district, and an elderly woman has died in an underground shelter in Darnitskyi district, bringing total fatalities to two. The number of injured in Kyiv has risen to eleven. All remaining Shahed-type UAVs targeting Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih, and Dnipro have been negated (shot down or passed). TASS reports that a settlement of the Ukrainian conflict is approaching due to dialogue between US and Russian presidents (Kirill Dmitriev), which is an RF IO message. TASS also reports that director Zhora Kryzhovnikov is on Ukraine's Myrotvorets website, an RF IO message of victimhood. UPDATED: Air raid alerts activated in Kyiv and Poltava Oblast due to multiple inbound cruise missiles. Cruise missiles are observed over Sumy Oblast (towards Pryluky), Beryslavskyi Raion (towards Bereznehuvate), Mykolaiv Oblast (towards Voznesensk), and are approaching Kryvyi Rih and Kyiv. Explosions reported in Kryvyi Rih from Iskander-K missiles. RF IO emphasizes the need for 'difficult dialogue' to settle the situation in Ukraine. Two fatalities (one young woman, one one-year-old child) confirmed in Kyiv's Svyatoshynskyi district from the current missile attack (Klichko). Another explosion reported in Odesa. Some power outages in Kyiv after missile attacks. RF claims destruction of a UAF 2S3 "Akatsiya" SPG in Konstantinivka via FPV drones (Colonelcassad). TASS reports RF plans to modernize 29 airfields in the Far East with 158 billion rubles. TASS also reports Russian universities may drop "Social Studies" from ЕГЭ in favor of "History." TASS reports 358 agreements worth 6.058 trillion rubles signed at the Eastern Economic Forum in 2025. UAF confirms damage to a sports palace in Odesa.

1.1.1. New Intelligence (Since Previous Sitrep Update 071003Z SEP 25)

• RF Ground Operations:
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: RF Ministry of Defense claims forces liberated 'Khoroshe' in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Colonelcassad and Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) amplify this claim, stating it brings 7 settlements in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast under RF control. (TASS, Colonelcassad, Операция Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Zaporizhzhia Front: UAF Zaporizhzhia OVA posts photo messages detailing the 'results of the week' on the Zaporizhzhia front, including damaged buildings and ongoing cleanup efforts, indicating continued RF pressure and UAF defensive/recovery operations. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Pokrovsk Direction, Donetsk Oblast: UAF BУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares UAV footage showing a Russian soldier alone in a devastated wooded area, eventually incapacitated or deceased, captioned as a "member of the Russian contact group awaiting another round of 'peace' talks." This indicates continued intense combat and isolated RF personnel losses. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Dnipro Direction (RF Claim): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo message with the caption "Dnepropetrovsk direction," implying continued RF focus or activity in this area. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Sloviansk Direction: Оперативний ЗСУ reports RF FPV drone strike on a minibus in Sloviansk. (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Kharkiv Direction: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports on the situation in the responsibility zones of subordinated military units as of 070900Z SEP 25, indicating active operations in the Kharkiv axis. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Ambarne, Kamyanka and towards Novovasylivka in the South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Kupyansk Direction: Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Kupyansk and towards Novoplatonivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Lyman Direction: Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Hrekivka, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Kolodyazi, Torske and towards Shandryholove, Derylove. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Siversk Direction: Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Serebryanka, Hryhorivka, Pereyizne and towards Dronivka. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Kramatorsk Direction: Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Bondarne, Virolubivka, Stupochka and Bila Hora. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Toretsk Direction: Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Scherbynivka, Katerynivka, Rusyn Yar, Poltavka and towards Pleschiyivka. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Novopavlivka Direction: Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Zelenyy Hay, Tolstoy, Maliyivka, Shevchenko, Komyshuvakha and towards Filiya, Oleksandrohrad, Novoselivka, Sosnivka. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Orikhiv Direction: Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Stepnohirsk. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) Direction: Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian army assaults. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • General Assessment RF Ground Ops: TASS reports RF forces are increasingly using civilian vehicles to transport weapons for UAF to the Dnipro, with RF UAV crews successfully identifying and thwarting such actions. (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RF Deep Strikes:
  • Kyiv Oblast: New Shahed groups are reported coming from the north towards Kyiv Oblast (STERNENKO, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Poltava Oblast (Kremenchuk bridge): Kotsnews shares imagery of damage to a bridge structure, captioned "Massive strike on Ukraine. Here's where they hit," which appears to be the Kremenchuk bridge, confirming impact. (Kotsnews, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Polish Airspace Violation: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a Shahed drone entered Polish territory, flying towards Zamość. The video shows a man reacting to a drone at night. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • General Deep Strike Threat: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of ballistic missile application from the north-eastern direction, with a high-speed target in Sumy Oblast. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Kryvyi Rih: Олександр Вілкул reports high-precision strikes hit a warehouse with food packages for Kryvyi Rih residents and IDPs, destroying over 60,000 food supply packages. (Олександр Вілкул, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Odesa: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 provides video and photo messages of aftermath of night attack in Odesa. The video shows damaged residential buildings, broken windows, structural damage, debris, and a street cleaning vehicle. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Dnipropetrovsk Airport: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims a "complex strike" on Dnipropetrovsk Airport. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF Air Defense:
  • Overnight Shootdowns: Yuriy Ihnat (UAF Air Force) confirms that several drones entered Ukrainian airspace from Belarus overnight. He also reiterates that 751 enemy targets were destroyed/suppressed overnight, including 747 drones and 4 Iskander-K cruise missiles. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Odesa: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares thermal imagery of Shahed shootdowns by the Odesa anti-aircraft missile brigade. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF Ground Operations:
  • Territorial Gains: Commander-in-Chief Syrsky states UAF regained control over 26 sq. km of Ukrainian land in two directions, while losing 5 sq. km in August. (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Tactical Actions: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports a UAF soldier impersonated an RF soldier and eliminated two occupiers. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • General Assessment UAF Ground Ops: 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України shares photo messages regarding "Enemy Losses" over the period 01.09-06.09.2025 (likely 2024), indicating active engagements. (46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF Deep Strikes:
  • Ilsky Oil Refinery: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that special operations forces (SSO) destroyed the ELOU-AT-6 unit at the Ilsky Oil Refinery, responsible for primary oil refining. (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Information Environment:
  • RF IO (Internal Unity/Morale): TASS and Военкор Котенок broadcast a video of a large Moscow religious procession, emphasizing spiritual unity. Kotsnews amplifies this with additional videos. (TASS, Военкор Котенок, Kotsnews, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash на Донбассе shares a video of swans, seemingly for domestic soft power, perhaps to normalize the situation or create a sense of peace. (Mash на Донбассе, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RF IO (Damage Assessment Amplification): Kotsnews shares imagery of damaged locations, captioned "Massive strike on Ukraine. Here's where they hit," consistent with RF efforts to amplify perceived success. НгП раZVедка shares photo messages captioned "Massive strike on Ukraine's military infrastructure," amplifying damage claims. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares photo messages with "New strikes on Ukraine." Colonelcassad shares video of "Geranium" impact in Zaporizhzhia. (Kotsnews, НгП раZVедка, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора shares a thermal video claiming UAF attacked the "Druzhba" pipeline again. (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports an RF UAV operator destroyed three "Baba Yaga" hexacopters during launch in Kherson Oblast. (ТАСС, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RF IO (Anti-Ukrainian Sentiment): Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) amplifies imagery captioned "Ukraine is boiling: thousands in the streets against Zelensky's regime," showing civilian protests to portray internal Ukrainian instability. The translated testimony of a captured soldier by Оперативний ЗСУ, criticizing 'Akhmat' and Kadyrov's corruption, is being weaponized by UAF IO to undermine RF internal cohesion, but also provides insight into RF force morale. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares video messages captioned "Our wounded are left on the battlefield," featuring women appealing for information on mobilized soldiers, possibly indicating RF internal morale issues. (Операция Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, HIGH CONFIDENCE). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА discusses greater regional powers for labor migration, emphasizing migrants respecting Russian law and culture, reflecting internal RF policy and potentially anti-immigrant sentiment. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Воин DV shares archived footage of battles around Yalta (DNR) to highlight RF 'liberation' efforts. (Воин DV, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RF Domestic Issues: TASS reports most RF regions have tightened requirements for alcohol sales, and bans may be strengthened, reflecting internal social policies. ASTRA reports a resident of Kamchatka filed a police report because a gas station refused to sell him 60 liters of gasoline, indicating continued fuel shortages and domestic frustration within RF. (TASS, ASTRA, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA promotes a VPN for WhatsApp and Telegram, implying continued restrictions or surveillance concerns. (ASTRA, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RF Propaganda (Loss Denial/Minimization): Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video of a man complaining about fuel prices in Russia, framed with a Ukrainian caption that mocks the situation, indicating UAF counter-IO efforts to highlight RF domestic issues. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RF Battlefield Maps: Colonelcassad shares multiple map overlays captioned "Changes on the map over the past day," providing a RF perspective on territorial changes. Colonelcassad shares a tactical map overlay titled "Situation in the South-Donetsk Direction in the Zone of Responsibility of the 'Vostok' Group of Forces," indicating active operational reporting. (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь posts "They will start attacking," likely hinting at future RF offensives. (Рыбарь, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RF Civilian Casualties (IO): Mash на Донбассе reports a 9-year-old girl is missing in Okhovatka Ilinka, likely an IO message focusing on civilian suffering in areas claimed by RF. (Mash на Донбассе, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF IO: РБК-Україна shares video messages of Zelenskyy congratulating GUR soldiers on Military Intelligence Day. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares photo messages congratulating on Military Intelligence Day. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares video messages celebrating Military Intelligence Day, highlighting UAF capabilities. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video of the Kakhovka embankment before the "liberators," likely an IO message to highlight Russian destruction. STERNENKO shares photo messages concerning an alleged killer of Andriy Parubiy, investigating social networks. This suggests UAF counter-IO efforts related to internal security and political narratives. Оперативний ЗСУ promotes a new mini-album "GUR Works" with songs by intelligence officers to boost morale and highlight GUR activities. (РБК-Україна, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF Casualties: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that a pregnant woman injured in the Kyiv attack underwent emergency childbirth, with doctors fighting for the baby's life. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) and Оперативний ЗСУ report information about a third fatality in Kyiv from the night attack, though KVMBA later states this is unconfirmed. РБК-Україна confirms the increased number of dead in Kyiv. РБК-Україна reports a pregnant woman injured in the Kyiv attack gave birth to a son, both transferred to a Kyiv city clinical hospital, with doctors fighting for the baby's life. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a drone strike on a residential five-story building in Sumy. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF Morale: STERNENKO announces a podcast with Volodymyr Mykolaienko, ex-mayor of Kherson, who recently returned from captivity, likely to boost morale. (STERNENKO, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF Economic/Industrial: Сергій Лисак (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)) shares a video celebrating Entrepreneurship Day in Ukraine, highlighting domestic production. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • General Note: Colonelcassad shares a video captioned "07 September 2025", showing a series of explosions over water at night. While the caption provides a date, the exact nature of the event and its location are unclear without further context. Два майора shares videos of "Frontline Armor" donations to the "VBRONE31" unit, highlighting ongoing support and logistics activity. Два майора promotes ordering "Dva Mayora" chevrons, indicating fundraising and identity-building efforts. Два майора shares a video summarizing "How I spent the summer. Part three. August," detailing various targets engaged and destroyed by drones, showcasing RF's operational capabilities. РБК-Україна reports on world reactions to the "most massive RF strike on Ukraine." Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts fundraising calls ("Збір, народ!"). (Colonelcassad, Два майора, РБК-Україна, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zvиздец Мангусту is fundraising for a vehicle for SSO fighters. (Zvиздец Мангусту, HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO is fundraising for a Boker knife. (STERNENKO, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Information Environment Changes:
  • Kyiv Fatalities: KMVA clarified that the information regarding a third fatality in Kyiv was unconfirmed. (КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Air Threat Reduction: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued an "All Clear" for air threat. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • New UAV Groups: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports several groups of enemy UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast moving southwest. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Conditions remain clear and favorable for ongoing air operations by both sides, including missile strikes on Kyiv and Kryvyi Rih, and the UAF deep strike on the Ilsky Oil Refinery. The destruction of 69 UAF UAVs over RF territory and the Azov Sea (RF MoD) confirms favorable conditions for UAF deep strikes and RF air defense activity. The reported drone penetration of a house in Odesa further indicates clear conditions for drone operations. RF reconnaissance UAVs are operating in Kyiv and Chernihiv regions (UAF Air Force, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Poltava Oblast is experiencing direct hits and falling debris from shot down targets (ОВА, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports that remaining Shahed-type UAVs are circling in the Chernihiv Oblast, indicating continued air threat (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The total number of UAVs (805) and missiles (13) used by RF overnight across Ukraine (ASTRA, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦) confirms widespread, unhindered air operations. UAF PVO destroying 10 UAVs over Cherkasy region indicates continued air defense activity under favorable conditions for engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UPDATED: UAF Air Force reports enemy tactical aviation activity in the Eastern direction and KAB launches on Sumy Oblast and Donetsk region, confirming continued favorable conditions for RF air operations and precision strikes. PVO forces were active overnight in Rivne Oblast and Khmelnytskyi Oblast, indicating continued clear conditions for drone operations by RF and air defense engagements by UAF (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Clear conditions enabled a successful UAF deep strike on the Druzhba oil pipeline in Bryansk Oblast. (Оперативний ЗСУ, Alex Parker Returns, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Yuriy Ihnat's report confirms clear conditions allowed Shaheds to enter Ukraine from Belarus. (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). The UAF Air Force reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast, indicating clear conditions over the Black Sea. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Continued RF UAV activity towards Kyiv Oblast from Chernihiv Oblast and from the north suggests favorable conditions for sustained drone operations. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: The reported Shahed entering Polish airspace also indicates clear conditions for extended-range drone operations. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of ballistic missile application from the north-eastern direction, with a high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, indicating clear conditions for such launches. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF:
  • Ground Forces: Confirmed concentration of experienced marine units, including the "Somali" battalion, and ongoing combat for a "decisive breakthrough" at Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure in Avdiivka, Krasnolimansk, and Konstantinovka. Claimed entry into Shandryholove and Novy Mir (Rubtsovsk direction). Intercepted communications reveal instances of friendly fire, suggesting potential C2/discipline issues in some units. UAF General Staff confirms 77 engagements. Colonelcassad shares data on UAF equipment losses. RF airborne forces are allegedly supporting advances towards Sumy. Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports on two artillery regiments having been granted 'Guards' status. TASS (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports RF military personnel advancing southeast of Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast, despite UAF counterattacks. "Сливочный каприз" (HIGH CONFIDENCE) imagery suggests continued ISR or ground activity. Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) indicates RF forces have made "good advances" in Kupyansk. TASS reports RF forces are gradually withdrawing from Serebryanka (DNR) and pushing UAF from Dronovka. UPDATED: Colonelcassad's video claiming the destruction of a UAF 2S3 "Akatsiya" SPA in Konstantinivka using fiber-optic FPV drones indicates RF's continued and refined capability for tactical targeting of UAF artillery assets. RF milbloggers (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE) post videos showing RF military vehicles, personnel in camouflage, tactical movements in various terrains, and military camps, indicating active ground force operations and ongoing deployment/training. TASS reports Russian military forces repelled two counterattacks by the UAF 225th Separate Assault Regiment in Andreevka, Sumy Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF forces used Tornado MLRS to destroy railway infrastructure in Slaviansk (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports UAF units are withdrawing from Derilovo (DNR) and redeploying southwest of the settlement (expert Marochko). Воин DV video shows RF drone targeting fortifications and vehicles in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming active tactical engagements and ISR capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: RF "Dnipro" group is actively striking UAF warehouses and command posts in Kherson Oblast (TASS via Saldo, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo message focusing on the "Kupyansk direction," implying continued RF ground force focus or activity in this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports special forces from Ukraine's border service were redeployed to Vovchansk, trained by US instructors, and visited by former Secretary Blinken, indicating a focus on border security and potential for cross-border operations. (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора fundraising for assault forces in Sumy direction, indicating active operations in that sector. (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo publishes a tactical map of the Zaporizhzhia front. (WarGonzo, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора shares a video (Крымские берега посетил ведущий аналитик проекта «Рыбарь» Денис Щукин) depicting military training activities in what appears to be southern Ukraine, potentially related to assessing or demonstrating operational capabilities, with Rybar branding (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Народная милиция ДНР shares video claiming destruction of four UAF UAV launch positions by "Sparta" battalion (Народная милиция ДНР, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Воин DV shares photo messages on the situation on the South-Donetsk direction in the area of responsibility of the "Vostok" grouping of forces, showing a map with geographic features and military markings (Воин DV, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition shows a video of "VOIN" military-sports training center, focused on drone and unmanned systems, indicating ongoing RF training and development. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo shares photo messages celebrating the 246th anniversary of Gorlovka, likely to boost morale and solidify control in occupied territories. (WarGonzo, HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia shares photo messages indicating the completion of the "Interaction 2025" joint exercise with CSTO CRRF in Belarus, aimed at projecting military strength and alliances. (MoD Russia, HIGH CONFIDENCE). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares video of drone footage showing multiple explosions across terrain, potentially indicating RF artillery or air strikes. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RF MoD claims liberation of 'Khoroshe' in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (MoD Russia, TASS, Colonelcassad, Операция Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares maps titled "Changes on the map over the past day," indicating claimed territorial shifts. (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Hremyach of Chernihiv region, Odradokamyanka of Kherson region, according to General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Ambarne, Kamyanka and towards Novovasylivka, at South Slobozhansky(Kharkiv) direction. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Kupyansk and towards Novoplatonivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Hrekivka, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Kolodyazi, Torske and towards Shandryholove, Derylove, at Lyman direction. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Serebryanka, Hryhorivka, Pereyizne and towards Dronivka, at Sieversk direction. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Bondarne, Virolubivka, Stupochka and Bila Hora, at Kramatorsk direction. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Scherbynivka, Katerynivka, Rusyn Yar, Poltavka and towards Pleschiyivka, at Toretsk direction. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Shakhove, Novoekonomichne, Myrolubivka, Promin, Sukhyy Yar, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne and towards Myrnohrad, Rodynske, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Molodetske, Novopavlivka, Filiya, at Pokrovsk direction. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Zelenyy Hay, Tolstoy, Maliyivka, Shevchenko, Komyshuvakha and towards Filiya, Oleksandrohrad, Novoselivka, Sosnivka, at Novopavlivka direction. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Stepnohirsk, at Orikhiv direction. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 7 Russian army assaults, at Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports RF forces are increasingly using civilian vehicles to transport weapons for UAF to the Dnipro, with RF UAV crews successfully identifying and thwarting such actions. (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ reports RF FPV drone strike on a minibus in Sloviansk. (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: MoD Russia shares photo messages on the progress of the special military operation as of 7 September 2025, providing a formal daily update on claimed successes. (MoD Russia, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Air Assets: Launching new waves of UAVs towards Chernihiv/Sumy, and conducting drone attacks in Zaporizhzhia (at least seven impacts), damaging civilian infrastructure, residential buildings, and injuring civilians. Renewed Shahed and ballistic threats towards Kyiv, with PVO active and KMW reporting ongoing danger. Lethal application of drones against civilian targets. RF MoD claims 31 UAF UAVs destroyed over RF regions in four hours. The explosion in Kharkiv and air danger regime in Lipetsk Oblast, along with flight restrictions at Volgograd airport (now lifted), show ongoing RF air defense and response capabilities. RF has demonstrated a capability for rapid, multi-vector, high-volume drone attacks, with new groups (5-12 Shahed-type UAVs) now targeting central Ukraine. Further reports of 3 additional Shaheds inbound to Kremenchuk and 3 towards Kropyvnytskyi confirm continued high-volume, multi-vector deep strike capabilities. RF demonstrates an ability to deploy "several hundred" Shahed-type UAVs simultaneously. Ballistic missile launches from Crimea targeting Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia Oblast confirm multi-domain strike capability. RF maintains a capability for overwhelming, massed, multi-domain (UAV and ballistic missile) deep strikes, as evidenced by the two fatalities and eleven injuries in Kyiv and multiple hits in Kryvyi Rih. UPDATED: RF has initiated a new, high-intensity cruise missile attack, with capabilities to launch multiple (3+) cruise missiles (identified as Iskander-K) across vast distances (Sumy to Pryluky, Beryslavskyi Raion to Bereznehuvate, Mykolaiv to Voznesensk, Poltava to Cherkasy, and targeting Kryvyi Rih and Kyiv). This demonstrates a sophisticated multi-vector, high-speed missile strike capability designed to overwhelm and bypass UAF air defenses. Temporary flight restrictions at Zhukovsky airport, RF, suggest capabilities for rapid response to threats or for conducting further air operations from this strategic airfield. The confirmation of two fatalities and additional damage in Kyiv indicates the lethality of these strikes. The damage to Odesa's Sports Palace further highlights targeting of civilian infrastructure. RF has demonstrated a continued capability for high-speed missile strikes on critical infrastructure in Kyiv (administrative building in Pecherskyi district) and sustained attacks on civilian targets in Kryvyi Rih. RF Ministry of Defense reports 69 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed or intercepted over RF regions and the Azov Sea overnight (ТАСС, ASTRA, HIGH CONFIDENCE). The reported strike on a bridge over the Dnipro in Kremenchuk (РБК-Україна) indicates RF's ongoing capability to target critical infrastructure with precision. RF capabilities for overwhelming long-range strike remain very high, with 805 UAVs and 13 missiles launched overnight against Ukraine (ASTRA, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦). This includes the use of KABs on Pokrovska community, Synelnykivskyi district (Сергій Лисак). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: RF launched 810 drones and 13 missiles overnight (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports continued enemy tactical aviation activity in the Eastern direction and KAB launches on Sumy Oblast and Donetsk region (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). The video from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, captioned as "Video of the moment of impact on the bridge in Kremenchuk," strongly suggests a confirmed RF aerial strike on critical infrastructure (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports RF developed "Aurelia" modular special barriers to combat Ukrainian unmanned boats (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF sources (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) report three Shahed-type UAVs struck an equestrian club in Kyiv Oblast, resulting in animal fatalities but no human casualties (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares videos captioned "Прилеты ракет в Киеве", showing explosions in an urban environment at dusk with plumes of smoke (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора shares a photo of the Kryukiv bridge after a "Geran" strike, and a video captioned "Крюковский мосту через Днепр в Кременчуге после удара "Герани"" which appears to be unrelated fireworks footage (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares a similar video of nighttime explosions near a bridge, labeled "Прилеты ракет в Киеве," which also appears to be miscaptioned or unrelated to Kremenchuk (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports multiple groups of enemy UAVs from Sumy Oblast into Chernihiv Oblast. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Yuriy Ihnat confirms several Shahed-type UAVs entered Ukrainian airspace from Belarus overnight. (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast; assets engaged for shootdown. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA confirms Kremenchuk bridge damaged and movement suspended. (ASTRA, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports a new enemy UAV from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv Oblast (Brovary Raion). (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a group of Shaheds from the north moving towards Kyiv Oblast. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Kotsnews shares imagery of damage to a bridge structure captioned "Massive strike on Ukraine. Here's where they hit," confirming an aerial strike. (Kotsnews, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a Shahed drone entered Polish territory, flying towards Zamość, demonstrating a capability to project drone threats into NATO airspace. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of ballistic missile application from the north-eastern direction, with a high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, confirming ongoing missile launch capability. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олександр Вілкул reports high-precision strikes hit a warehouse with food packages for Kryvyi Rih residents and IDPs, demonstrating targeting of humanitarian aid infrastructure. (Олександр Вілкул, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 provides video and photo messages of aftermath of night attack in Odesa, confirming RF's capability to cause widespread damage to urban environments. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims a "complex strike" on Dnipropetrovsk Airport, indicating continued targeting of air infrastructure. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Information Operations (IO): Actively promoting battlefield footage from Pokrovsk/Krasnolimansk/Konstantinovka to project strength and demoralize UAF. Uses state media (TASS, Colonelcassad) to issue warnings regarding Western aid (Taurus missiles) and to disseminate allegations of UAF strikes on ZNPP. Engaging in hybrid warfare against Moldova (Рыбарь). Amplifying anti-refugee/anti-interventionist sentiment in Europe. Spreading low morale narratives via POW interviews. Humanizing RF soldiers via cat imagery. Actively recruiting via "human traffickers" in Ukraine. Exploiting UAF domestic policy debates on mobilization. Colonelcassad continues to publish UAF loss statistics. Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) claims "Third party of eliminated Colombian mercenaries serving the narco-fuhrer today. Ukrainism and Banderaism kills." Colonelcassad also shares a video alleging financial incentives for Maidan protests. RF is capable of rapidly generating new, false narratives such as linking UAF to "human traffickers" and attempting to sow discord between Ukraine and its allies (e.g., Poland) by mocking alleged Polish-made drones. They are also capable of amplifying unverified claims of large-scale drone attacks (116 "Geraniums") to exaggerate their impact. НгП раZVедка (HIGH CONFIDENCE) explicitly states the mood is to "take and beat the record of the Yavoriv training ground for the simultaneous elimination of Khokhloryl." Операция Z (HIGH CONFIDENCE) amplifies Wall Street Journal reports on Putin's attrition strategy. RF demonstrates a sophisticated capability to create humanizing narratives (e.g., veteran volunteer video from Colonelcassad) for internal consumption, while simultaneously employing extremely aggressive and dehumanizing psychological warfare (e.g., НгП раZVедка's statements about children in basements) to terrorize the adversary. UPDATED: TASS shares video messages of Peskov emphasizing the need for 'difficult dialogue' to settle the situation in Ukraine, but also stating 'complete support' for peaceful initiatives. TASS promotes airfield modernization in the Far East and agreements at the Eastern Economic Forum as signs of RF economic strength and stability. TASS reports on Russian universities possibly favoring history over social studies in state exams, which aligns with RF's ideological agenda. TASS (HIGH CONFIDENCE) is deploying soft power IO by highlighting the civilian applications of drones. NEW: RF milbloggers (WarGonzo, Colonelcassad) are amplifying the alleged scale of the overnight drone and missile attacks (805+ UAVs, 13 missiles) to maximize psychological impact (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports search warrants executed for Yana Skokova, CEO of "Bikleaver Finance," for illegal money withdrawal to non-RF residents, an internal IO to project legal enforcement (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Maria Zakharova stating Russia advocates reducing the digital divide and rejecting restrictions on technology access, likely an IO to counter Western sanctions/tech controls (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns uses derogatory language about Fico and Zelensky, confirming the "Druzhba" oil pipeline attack and lamenting that "nothing is shy" (Alex Parker Returns, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Старше Эдды shares promotional images of knives, possibly for morale or fundraising for military personnel (Старше Эдды, Alex Parker Returns, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора is fundraising for assault forces in Sumy direction, emphasizing the need for Mavic drones to save lives and push back the enemy (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА questions "What is the enemy preparing in the Black Sea?" with an image of a Russian warship (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad is fundraising for motorized infantry, volunteer detachments, and air defense fighters, requesting body armor, helmets, and medicine, demonstrating ongoing efforts to equip personnel and maintain morale (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares a video of additional strike aftermath in Kyiv (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Russian MoD shares video of EW units in Kharkov direction overwhelming enemy reconnaissance (MoD Russia, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash na Donbasse reports a civilian traffic accident in the Donbas region (Mash на Донбассе, HIGH CONFIDENCE). «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» reports an AI-generated scam targeting Moscow schoolchildren for Akhmat special forces (Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат», HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad reports fraud related to military contract payments in Leningrad Oblast (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of FSB detaining a 15-year-old for railway arson in Krasnodar Krai, framing it as a successful counter-sabotage operation (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Janus Putkonen (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) amplifies the narrative of a "night of a thousand drones, missiles, and air bombs in Ukraine" (Janus Putkonen, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS issues a warning about fraudulent calls not originating from a "+7" code, indicating internal security/scam awareness IO (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) shares videos about "Chicago against Trump's 'war rebranding'," focusing on civilian protests and immigration issues in the US, likely for internal RF consumption to portray Western societal divisions (Операция Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports on Malysheva's statement about Merz needing to feel responsibility for his words on conflict with Russia, an IO targeting Western politicians (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kadyrov_95 shares a video celebrating a birthday within his family, an IO to project normalcy and family values (Kadyrov_95, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы shares images of "Tasty - and that's it" (Russian McDonald's replacement) glasses breaking during washing, a domestic consumer IO (Новости Москвы, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора shares a video of Rybar analyst Denis Shchukin visiting Crimea, likely an IO to promote pro-Russian analysis and showcase Crimea (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS and Alex Parker Returns share videos of a large religious procession in Moscow, framed as a display of Russian unity and strength, with Alex Parker Returns ominously stating "Russians are coming! ... There will be pogroms. Good will prevail!" (ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns posts a photo with the caption "Little," possibly mocking the reported damage or casualties. (Alex Parker Returns, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Russkoi Vesny) reports the strike on Druzhba oil pipeline, framing it as a "cynical spit in the face of Europe" (Операция Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad reports on burning buildings after night arrivals in Dobropillia (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь (Rybar) posts an image with the caption "The Art of Greek Diplomacy," which may be a critical or satirical comment on international relations, part of their broader IO. (Рыбарь, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS shares a video of Peskov discussing Putin's daily sports routine, likely to project a positive image of Putin's leadership. (ТАСС, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы shares a video of a large religious procession in Moscow, emphasizing "thousands of believers," likely to project religious unity and strength. (Новости Москвы, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares a video celebrating the 11th anniversary of the Wagner PMC's successful storming of Lugansk airport, framed as a significant military victory, reinforcing RF narratives of historical military prowess. (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo shares photo messages celebrating the 246th anniversary of Gorlovka, calling it a "City of military glory and labor valor," which is a clear IO effort to boost morale and solidify control in occupied territories. (WarGonzo, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Police of Khabarovsk Krai shares an animated video providing internet safety advice, likely an internal IO effort to address cyber threats and scams, which could also be used to portray internal stability. (Полиция Хабаровского края, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares an image captioned "Тарана в действии" (Taran in action), likely referencing ramming tactics or a military maneuver, intended to show military prowess. (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports military analyst Igor Korotchenko's opinion that RF forces will continue to advance, and UAF will retreat, with UK's transfer of frozen assets profits not changing the situation, a clear IO to diminish the impact of Western aid. (ТАСС, HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia shares photo messages indicating the completion of the "Interaction 2025" joint exercise with CSTO CRRF in Belarus, aimed at projecting military strength and alliances. (MoD Russia, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) shares a video of Slovak Prime Minister discussing China's global influence, likely to portray perceived Western failures and promote alternative alliances. (Операция Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: TASS broadcasts a video of a large Moscow religious procession, projecting internal unity and strength. (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kotsnews shares imagery of damaged locations, captioned "Massive strike on Ukraine. Here's where they hit," amplifying RF strike claims. (Kotsnews, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) amplifies imagery captioned "Ukraine is boiling: thousands in the streets against Zelensky's regime," showing civilian protests. (Операция Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports on tightening alcohol sales restrictions across RF regions. (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports a Kamchatka resident filed a police report over a gas station refusing to sell him 60 liters of gasoline, indicating domestic frustration and fuel shortages. (ASTRA, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash на Донбассе reports a missing 9-year-old girl, an IO likely aimed at portraying civilian suffering. (Mash на Донбассе, HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка shares photo messages captioned "Massive strike on Ukraine's military infrastructure," amplifying damage claims. (НгП раZVедка, HIGH CONFIDENCE). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares video messages captioned "Our wounded are left on the battlefield," featuring women appealing for information on mobilized soldiers, possibly indicating RF internal morale issues and a UAF IO opportunity. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: MoD Russia shares photo messages on the progress of the special military operation as of 7 September 2025, providing a formal daily update on claimed successes. (MoD Russia, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports RF forces are increasingly using civilian vehicles to transport weapons for UAF to the Dnipro, with RF UAV crews successfully identifying and thwarting such actions, an IO message highlighting RF capabilities. (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Два майора shares videos of "Frontline Armor" donations to the "VBRONE31" unit, showcasing their ability to organize and distribute logistical support. (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора promotes ordering "Dva Mayora" chevrons, indicating the continued use of social media for fundraising and fostering unit identity. (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора shares a video summarizing "How I spent the summer. Part three. August," detailing various targets engaged and destroyed by drones, showcasing RF's drone operational capabilities and a propaganda effort to highlight their effectiveness. (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: РБК-Україна reports on world reactions to the "most massive RF strike on Ukraine," highlighting the international cognitive domain. (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts fundraising calls ("Збір, народ!"). (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF:
  • Defensive Posture: Actively defending against RF ground assaults on Pokrovsk, Avdiivka, and Krasnolimansk. Maintaining high air defense alert for Kyiv (renewed threat, PVO active, with confirmed hits on residential buildings, warehouse fire, and partial destruction of a 4-story building, and 2 confirmed casualties, now 15 injured, with 2 fatalities and 15 injured, administrative building on fire, new explosion reported, and over 20 injured), Chernihiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia (with increased casualties, and renewed strike on an enterprise), Kharkiv (with confirmed UAV) and now Lutsk against drone and ballistic threats, with PVO actively engaging targets. Documenting damage and civilian casualties (now seventeen wounded in Zaporizhzhia, now fifteen wounded in Kyiv, two fatalities in Kyiv, one fatality and 17 wounded in Primorske/Zaporizhzhia, one fatality in Orikhiv community). UAF General Staff reports 77 combat engagements. UAF PVO is currently active in Kyiv (Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, КМВА, HIGH CONFIDENCE). PVO active in Dnipro. UAF PVO is now on alert for new drone groups heading towards Znamianka, Svitlovodsk, and Kremenchuk, with Kremenchuk under confirmed attack. UAF is actively defending against renewed deep strikes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF is actively engaged against RF advances in Kupyansk. UAF PVO has successfully negated all remaining Shahed-type UAVs targeting Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih, and Dnipro. UAF has lifted the air raid alert for Kyiv and missile danger for Kryvyi Rih. UPDATED: UAF PVO is currently active in Kyiv against inbound cruise missiles. UAF PVO is active across Sumy, Mykolaiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts against multiple incoming cruise missiles, including Iskander-K. Oleksandr Vilkul reports new missile attacks on Kryvyi Rih with explosions. UAF continues to document damage to civilian infrastructure, including Odesa's Sports Palace. KMVA reports an administrative building in Kyiv's Pecherskyi district is on fire due to a likely intercepted UAV. UAF reports one fatality and 17 wounded in Primorske and Zaporizhzhia (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE), and one fatality in Orikhiv community. Оперативний ЗСУ (HIGH CONFIDENCE) confirms consequences of a massive combined strike on Kyiv (Кличко). UAF Air Force reports RF reconnaissance UAVs in Kyiv and Chernihiv regions (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ reports 29 UAVs were shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports 805 UAVs and 13 missiles attacked Ukraine overnight (ASTRA, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦), confirming active UAF air defense engagements. UAF PVO destroyed 10 enemy UAVs over Cherkasy region overnight (Оперативний ЗСУ). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: UAF PVO forces were active overnight in Rivne Oblast and Khmelnytskyi Oblast, successfully engaging air targets. (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE) Commander-in-Chief Syrsky reports UAF units repelled approximately 350 RF attacks on the Pokrovsk direction over the past week, confirming a strong and active defensive posture against RF's largest offensive grouping. (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE) Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports on a commander's work in active combat zones (Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Siverskyi directions) at command posts, indicating ongoing UAF leadership and presence on the front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF Air Force shot down/suppressed 751 enemy targets overnight. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO claims over 40 RF drones were shot down this night by "drone interceptors." (STERNENKO, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF continues to document casualties in Kyiv, with 20+ injured. (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" shares a video celebrating Military Intelligence Day. (‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», HIGH CONFIDENCE). Сергій Лисак (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)) shares a motivational video celebrating Ukrainian Military Intelligence Day, featuring special forces in training (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ shares a similar video from Commander-in-Chief Syrsky, congratulating military intelligence on their day and showcasing training (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Сили оборони Півдня України reports 1 cruise missile and 45 Shahed-136/131 UAVs destroyed in the operational zone of the "South" grouping (Сили оборони Півдня України, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports multiple groups of enemy UAVs from Sumy Oblast into Chernihiv Oblast. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Yuriy Ihnat confirms several Shahed-type UAVs entered Ukrainian airspace from Belarus overnight, demonstrating continued UAF situational awareness. (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast; assets engaged for shootdown. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). The 2nd Mountain Assault Battalion of the 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade is actively destroying enemy forces near Pyatykhatky. (✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) shares photo messages of families of prisoners of war reminding about torture in Russian captivity during a peace march in Paris, which is a clear UAF counter-IO effort to highlight RF war crimes and galvanize international support. (Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of combat operations in the Eastern direction. (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна shares a video confirming Shahed activity from Belarus. (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Yuriy Ihnat (UAF Air Force) confirms several drones entered Ukrainian airspace from Belarus overnight, indicating continued UAF situational awareness and tracking. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Zaporizhzhia OVA posts photo messages detailing the 'results of the week' on the Zaporizhzhia front, including damaged buildings and ongoing cleanup efforts, confirming active recovery and defensive posture. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). BУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares UAV footage of isolated Russian soldier losses on the Pokrovsk direction. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Commander-in-Chief Syrsky reports UAF regained control over 26 sq. km of Ukrainian land in two directions. (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports on the situation in the responsibility zones of subordinated military units as of 070900Z SEP 25, indicating active operations in the Kharkiv axis. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 7 Russian army assaults, at Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна shares video messages of Zelenskyy congratulating GUR soldiers on Military Intelligence Day. (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares photo messages congratulating on Military Intelligence Day. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares video messages celebrating Military Intelligence Day, highlighting UAF capabilities. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ promotes a new mini-album "GUR Works" with songs by intelligence officers to boost morale and highlight GUR activities. (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Ground Offensive with Massed Forces: RF demonstrates the capability to concentrate experienced marine units (e.g., "Somali" battalion) for "decisive breakthrough" offensives (Pokrovsk) and sustain attritional assaults (Avdiivka, Krasnolimansk, Konstantinovka). Claimed entry into Shandryholove and Novy Mir indicates localized advance capability. RF airborne forces are allegedly supporting advances towards Sumy. Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports two artillery regiments granted 'Guards' status, indicating internal military recognition. TASS (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports RF advances southeast of Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) claims "good advances" in Kupyansk. TASS reports RF forces gradually withdrawing from Serebryanka (DNR) and pushing UAF from Dronovka, demonstrating localized offensive actions. UPDATED: Colonelcassad's video claiming destruction of a UAF 2S3 "Akatsiya" SPA in Konstantinivka via FPV drones (Colonelcassad) confirms refined tactical targeting capabilities. RF milbloggers (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE) videos show active ground force operations. TASS reports RF repelled two UAF counterattacks in Andreevka, Sumy Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE), indicating strong defensive and counter-offensive capabilities. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF forces used Tornado MLRS to destroy railway infrastructure in Slaviansk (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports UAF withdrawing from Derilovo (DNR) (expert Marochko). Воин DV video shows RF drone targeting fortifications and vehicles in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RF "Dnipro" group actively striking UAF warehouses and command posts in Kherson Oblast (TASS via Saldo, HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo publishes a tactical map of Zaporizhzhia front. (WarGonzo, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора shares a video (Крымские берега посетил ведущий аналитик проекта «Рыбарь» Денис Щукин) depicting military training activities in what appears to be southern Ukraine, potentially related to assessing or demonstrating operational capabilities, with Rybar branding (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Народная милиция ДНР shares video claiming destruction of four UAF UAV launch positions by "Sparta" battalion (Народная милиция ДНР, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Воин DV shares photo messages on the situation on the South-Donetsk direction in the area of responsibility of the "Vostok" grouping of forces, showing a map with geographic features and military markings (Воин DV, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition shows a video of "VOIN" military-sports training center, focused on drone and unmanned systems, indicating ongoing RF training and development, enhancing their ground and ISR capabilities. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, HIGH CONFIDENCE). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares video of drone footage showing multiple explosions across terrain, potentially indicating RF artillery or air strikes, showcasing their ability to engage ground targets. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RF MoD claims liberation of 'Khoroshe' in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, extending their claimed territorial control. (MoD Russia, TASS, Colonelcassad, Операция Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares map updates indicating ongoing territorial adjustments. (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Hremyach of Chernihiv region, Odradokamyanka of Kherson region. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports clashes in Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions, confirming sustained multi-axis ground pressure. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports RF forces are increasingly using civilian vehicles to transport weapons for UAF to the Dnipro, with RF UAV crews successfully identifying and thwarting such actions. (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ reports RF FPV drone strike on a minibus in Sloviansk, indicating continued tactical drone use against ground targets. (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: MoD Russia shares photo messages on the progress of the special military operation as of 7 September 2025, providing a formal daily update on claimed successes. (MoD Russia, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Overwhelming Long-Range Strike & Air Presence: Continued high-volume drone launches (at least seven in Zaporizhzhia, new groups towards Chernihiv/Sumy/Kharkiv, confirmed "Geranium" strikes). Renewed Shahed and ballistic threats towards Kyiv, with PVO active and KMW reporting ongoing danger. Lethal application of drones against civilian targets (Zaporizhzhia residential buildings, kindergarten, now seventeen wounded civilians). RF has demonstrated a capability for rapid, multi-vector, high-volume drone attacks, now intensifying against central Ukrainian industrial and logistical hubs. RF demonstrates an ability to deploy "several hundred" Shahed-type UAVs simultaneously. Ballistic missile launches from Crimea targeting Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia Oblast confirm multi-domain strike capability. RF maintains capability for overwhelming, massed, multi-domain (UAV and ballistic missile) deep strikes, as evidenced by the two fatalities and eleven injuries in Kyiv and multiple hits in Kryvyi Rih. UPDATED: RF has initiated a new, high-intensity cruise missile attack (Iskander-K) across vast distances, demonstrating sophisticated multi-vector, high-speed missile strike capability. The confirmation of two fatalities and additional damage in Kyiv indicates the lethality of these strikes. The damage to Odesa's Sports Palace further highlights targeting of civilian infrastructure. RF has demonstrated a continued capability for high-speed missile strikes on critical infrastructure in Kyiv (administrative building in Pecherskyi district) and sustained attacks on civilian targets in Kryvyi Rih. RF Ministry of Defense reports 69 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed or intercepted over RF regions and the Azov Sea overnight (ТАСС, ASTRA, HIGH CONFIDENCE). The reported strike on a bridge over the Dnipro in Kremenchuk (РБК-Україна) indicates RF's ongoing capability to target critical infrastructure with precision. RF capabilities for overwhelming long-range strike remain very high, with 805 UAVs and 13 missiles launched overnight against Ukraine (ASTRA, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦). This includes the use of KABs on Pokrovska community, Synelnykivskyi district (Сергій Лисак). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: RF launched 810 drones and 13 missiles overnight (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports continued enemy tactical aviation activity in the Eastern direction and KAB launches on Sumy Oblast and Donetsk region (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). The video from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, captioned as "Video of the moment of impact on the bridge in Kremenchuk," strongly suggests a confirmed RF aerial strike on critical infrastructure (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports RF developed "Aurelia" modular special barriers to combat Ukrainian unmanned boats (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF sources (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) report three Shahed-type UAVs struck an equestrian club in Kyiv Oblast, resulting in animal fatalities but no human casualties (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares videos captioned "Прилеты ракет в Киеве", showing explosions in an urban environment at dusk with plumes of smoke (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора shares a photo of the Kryukiv bridge after a "Geran" strike, and a video captioned "Крюковский мосту через Днепр в Кременчуге после удара "Герани"" which appears to be unrelated fireworks footage (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares a similar video of nighttime explosions near a bridge, labeled "Прилеты ракет в Киеве," which also appears to be miscaptioned or unrelated to Kremenchuk (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports multiple groups of enemy UAVs from Sumy Oblast into Chernihiv Oblast. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Yuriy Ihnat confirms several Shahed-type UAVs entered Ukrainian airspace from Belarus overnight. (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast; assets engaged for shootdown. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA confirms Kremenchuk bridge damaged and movement suspended. (ASTRA, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports a new enemy UAV from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv Oblast (Brovary Raion). (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a group of Shaheds from the north moving towards Kyiv Oblast. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Kotsnews shares imagery of damage to a bridge structure captioned "Massive strike on Ukraine. Here's where they hit," confirming an aerial strike. (Kotsnews, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a Shahed drone entered Polish territory, flying towards Zamość, demonstrating a capability to project drone threats into NATO airspace. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of ballistic missile application from the north-eastern direction, with a high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, confirming ongoing missile launch capability. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олександр Вілкул reports high-precision strikes hit a warehouse with food packages for Kryvyi Rih residents and IDPs, demonstrating targeting of humanitarian aid infrastructure. (Олександр Вілкул, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 provides video and photo messages of aftermath of night attack in Odesa, confirming RF's capability to cause widespread damage to urban environments. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims a "complex strike" on Dnipropetrovsk Airport, indicating continued targeting of air infrastructure. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Advanced Information & Psychological Warfare: Aggressively promotes battlefield footage. Uses state media (TASS, Colonelcassad) to issue diplomatic warnings and disseminate ZNPP strike allegations. Actively conducting hybrid operations to destabilize neighboring states and fracture Western unity. Actively spreading disinformation (child trafficking allegations) and demoralizing PSYOPs (POW interviews, exploiting UAF memorials, exploiting UAF domestic policy debates, exploiting demographic concerns). Utilizing "humanizing" narratives for RF soldiers (kittens, paratrooper messages). Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) claims "Third party of eliminated Colombian mercenaries." RF is capable of rapidly generating new, false narratives such as linking UAF to "human traffickers." НгП раZVедка (HIGH CONFIDENCE) explicitly states the mood is to "take and beat the record of the Yavoriv training ground." Операция Z (HIGH CONFIDENCE) amplifies the WSJ report on Putin's attrition strategy. RF demonstrates a sophisticated capability to create humanizing narratives (e.g., veteran volunteer video from Colonelcassad) for internal consumption, while simultaneously employing extremely aggressive and dehumanizing psychological warfare (e.g., НгП раZVедка's statements about children in basements) to terrorize the adversary. UPDATED: TASS shares video messages of Peskov emphasizing 'difficult dialogue' to settle the situation in Ukraine. TASS promotes airfield modernization in the Far East and agreements at the Eastern Economic Forum as signs of RF economic strength and stability. NEW: RF milbloggers (WarGonzo, Colonelcassad) are amplifying the alleged scale of the overnight drone and missile attacks (805+ UAVs, 13 missiles) to maximize psychological impact (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports search warrants executed for Yana Skokova, CEO of "Bikleaver Finance," for illegal money withdrawal to non-RF residents, an internal IO to project legal enforcement (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Maria Zakharova stating Russia advocates reducing the digital divide and rejecting restrictions on technology access, likely an IO to counter Western sanctions/tech controls (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns uses derogatory language about Fico and Zelensky, confirming the "Druzhba" oil pipeline attack and lamenting that "nothing is shy" (Alex Parker Returns, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Старше Эдды shares promotional images of knives, possibly for morale or fundraising for military personnel (Старше Эдды, Alex Parker Returns, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора is fundraising for assault forces in Sumy direction, emphasizing the need for Mavic drones to save lives and push back the enemy (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА questions "What is the enemy preparing in the Black Sea?" with an image of a Russian warship (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad is fundraising for motorized infantry, volunteer detachments, and air defense fighters, requesting body armor, helmets, and medicine, demonstrating ongoing efforts to equip personnel and maintain morale (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares a video of additional strike aftermath in Kyiv (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Russian MoD shares video of EW units in Kharkov direction overwhelming enemy reconnaissance (MoD Russia, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash na Donbasse reports a civilian traffic accident in the Donbas region (Mash на Донбассе, HIGH CONFIDENCE). «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» reports an AI-generated scam targeting Moscow schoolchildren for Akhmat special forces (Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат», HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad reports fraud related to military contract payments in Leningrad Oblast (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of FSB detaining a 15-year-old for railway arson in Krasnodar Krai, framing it as a successful counter-sabotage operation (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Janus Putkonen (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) amplifies the narrative of a "night of a thousand drones, missiles, and air bombs in Ukraine" (Janus Putkonen, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS issues a warning about fraudulent calls not originating from a "+7" code, indicating internal security/scam awareness IO (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) shares videos about "Chicago against Trump's 'war rebranding'," focusing on civilian protests and immigration issues in the US, likely for internal RF consumption to portray Western societal divisions (Операция Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports on Malysheva's statement about Merz needing to feel responsibility for his words on conflict with Russia, an IO targeting Western politicians (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kadyrov_95 shares a video celebrating a birthday within his family, an IO to project normalcy and family values (Kadyrov_95, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы shares images of "Tasty - and that's it" (Russian McDonald's replacement) glasses breaking during washing, a domestic consumer IO (Новости Москвы, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора shares a video of Rybar analyst Denis Shchukin visiting Crimea, likely an IO to promote pro-Russian analysis and showcase Crimea (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS and Alex Parker Returns share videos of a large religious procession in Moscow, framed as a display of Russian unity and strength, with Alex Parker Returns ominously stating "Russians are coming! ... There will be pogroms. Good will prevail!" (ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns posts a photo with the caption "Little," possibly mocking the reported damage or casualties. (Alex Parker Returns, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Russkoi Vesny) reports the strike on Druzhba oil pipeline, framing it as a "cynical spit in the face of Europe" (Операция Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad reports on burning buildings after night arrivals in Dobropillia (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь (Rybar) posts an image with the caption "The Art of Greek Diplomacy," which may be a critical or satirical comment on international relations, part of their broader IO. (Рыбарь, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS shares a video of Peskov discussing Putin's daily sports routine, likely to project a positive image of Putin's leadership. (ТАСС, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы shares a video of a large religious procession in Moscow, emphasizing "thousands of believers," likely to project religious unity and strength. (Новости Москвы, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares a video celebrating the 11th anniversary of the Wagner PMC's successful storming of Lugansk airport, framed as a significant military victory, reinforcing RF narratives of historical military prowess. (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo shares photo messages celebrating the 246th anniversary of Gorlovka, calling it a "City of military glory and labor valor," which is a clear IO effort to boost morale and solidify control in occupied territories. (WarGonzo, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Police of Khabarovsk Krai shares an animated video providing internet safety advice, likely an internal IO effort to address cyber threats and scams, which could also be used to portray internal stability. (Полиция Хабаровского края, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares an image captioned "Тарана в действии" (Taran in action), likely referencing ramming tactics or a military maneuver, intended to show military prowess. (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports military analyst Igor Korotchenko's opinion that RF forces will continue to advance, and UAF will retreat, with UK's transfer of frozen assets profits not changing the situation, a clear IO to diminish the impact of Western aid. (ТАСС, HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia shares photo messages indicating the completion of the "Interaction 2025" joint exercise with CSTO CRRF in Belarus, aimed at projecting military strength and alliances. (MoD Russia, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) shares a video of Slovak Prime Minister discussing China's global influence, likely to portray perceived Western failures and promote alternative alliances. (Операция Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: TASS broadcasts a video of a large Moscow religious procession, projecting internal unity and strength. (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kotsnews shares imagery of damaged locations, captioned "Massive strike on Ukraine. Here's where they hit," amplifying RF strike claims. (Kotsnews, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) amplifies imagery captioned "Ukraine is boiling: thousands in the streets against Zelensky's regime," showing civilian protests. (Операция Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports on tightening alcohol sales restrictions across RF regions. (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports a Kamchatka resident filed a police report over a gas station refusing to sell him 60 liters of gasoline, indicating domestic frustration and fuel shortages. (ASTRA, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash на Донбассе reports a missing 9-year-old girl, an IO likely aimed at portraying civilian suffering. (Mash на Донбассе, HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка shares photo messages captioned "Massive strike on Ukraine's military infrastructure," amplifying damage claims. (НгП раZVедка, HIGH CONFIDENCE). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares video messages captioned "Our wounded are left on the battlefield," featuring women appealing for information on mobilized soldiers, possibly indicating RF internal morale issues and a UAF IO opportunity. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: MoD Russia shares photo messages on the progress of the special military operation as of 7 September 2025, providing a formal daily update on claimed successes. (MoD Russia, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports RF forces are increasingly using civilian vehicles to transport weapons for UAF to the Dnipro, with RF UAV crews successfully identifying and thwarting such actions, an IO message highlighting RF capabilities. (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Два майора shares videos of "Frontline Armor" donations to the "VBRONE31" unit, showcasing their ability to organize and distribute logistical support. (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора promotes ordering "Dva Mayora" chevrons, indicating the continued use of social media for fundraising and fostering unit identity. (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора shares a video summarizing "How I spent the summer. Part three. August," detailing various targets engaged and destroyed by drones, showcasing RF's drone operational capabilities and a propaganda effort to highlight their effectiveness. (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: РБК-Україна reports on world reactions to the "most massive RF strike on Ukraine," highlighting the international cognitive domain. (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts fundraising calls ("Збір, народ!"). (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF:
  • Defensive Posture: Actively defending against RF ground assaults on Pokrovsk, Avdiivka, and Krasnolimansk. Maintaining high air defense alert for Kyiv (renewed threat, PVO active, with confirmed hits on residential buildings, warehouse fire, and partial destruction of a 4-story building, and 2 confirmed casualties, now 15 injured, with 2 fatalities and 15 injured, administrative building on fire, new explosion reported, and over 20 injured), Chernihiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia (with increased casualties, and renewed strike on an enterprise), Kharkiv (with confirmed UAV) and now Lutsk against drone and ballistic threats, with PVO actively engaging targets. Documenting damage and civilian casualties (now seventeen wounded in Zaporizhzhia, now fifteen wounded in Kyiv, two fatalities in Kyiv, one fatality and 17 wounded in Primorske/Zaporizhzhia, one fatality in Orikhiv community). UAF General Staff reports 77 combat engagements. UAF PVO is currently active in Kyiv (Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, КМВА, HIGH CONFIDENCE). PVO active in Dnipro. UAF PVO is now on alert for new drone groups heading towards Znamianka, Svitlovodsk, and Kremenchuk, with Kremenchuk under confirmed attack. UAF is actively defending against renewed deep strikes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF is actively engaged against RF advances in Kupyansk. UAF PVO has successfully negated all remaining Shahed-type UAVs targeting Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih, and Dnipro. UAF has lifted the air raid alert for Kyiv and missile danger for Kryvyi Rih. UPDATED: UAF PVO is currently active in Kyiv against inbound cruise missiles. UAF PVO is active across Sumy, Mykolaiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts against multiple incoming cruise missiles, including Iskander-K. Oleksandr Vilkul reports new missile attacks on Kryvyi Rih with explosions. UAF continues to document damage to civilian infrastructure, including Odesa's Sports Palace. KMVA reports an administrative building in Kyiv's Pecherskyi district is on fire due to a likely intercepted UAV. UAF reports one fatality and 17 wounded in Primorske and Zaporizhzhia (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE), and one fatality in Orikhiv community. Оперативний ЗСУ (HIGH CONFIDENCE) confirms consequences of a massive combined strike on Kyiv (Кличко). UAF Air Force reports RF reconnaissance UAVs in Kyiv and Chernihiv regions (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ reports 29 UAVs were shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports 805 UAVs and 13 missiles attacked Ukraine overnight (ASTRA, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦), confirming active UAF air defense engagements. UAF PVO destroyed 10 enemy UAVs over Cherkasy region overnight (Оперативний ЗСУ). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: UAF PVO forces were active overnight in Rivne Oblast and Khmelnytskyi Oblast, successfully engaging air targets. (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE) Commander-in-Chief Syrsky reports UAF units repelled approximately 350 RF attacks on the Pokrovsk direction over the past week, confirming a strong and active defensive posture against RF's largest offensive grouping. (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE) Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports on a commander's work in active combat zones (Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Siverskyi directions) at command posts, indicating ongoing UAF leadership and presence on the front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF Air Force shot down/suppressed 751 enemy targets overnight. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO claims over 40 RF drones were shot down this night by "drone interceptors." (STERNENKO, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF continues to document casualties in Kyiv, with 20+ injured. (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" shares a video celebrating Military Intelligence Day. (‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», HIGH CONFIDENCE). Сергій Лисак (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)) shares a motivational video celebrating Ukrainian Military Intelligence Day, featuring special forces in training (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ shares a similar video from Commander-in-Chief Syrsky, congratulating military intelligence on their day and showcasing training (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Сили оборони Півдня України reports 1 cruise missile and 45 Shahed-136/131 UAVs destroyed in the operational zone of the "South" grouping (Сили оборони Півдня України, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports multiple groups of enemy UAVs from Sumy Oblast into Chernihiv Oblast. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Yuriy Ihnat confirms several Shahed-type UAVs entered Ukrainian airspace from Belarus overnight, demonstrating continued UAF situational awareness. (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast; assets engaged for shootdown. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). The 2nd Mountain Assault Battalion of the 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade is actively destroying enemy forces near Pyatykhatky. (✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) shares photo messages of families of prisoners of war reminding about torture in Russian captivity during a peace march in Paris, which is a clear UAF counter-IO effort to highlight RF war crimes and galvanize international support. (Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of combat operations in the Eastern direction. (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна shares a video confirming Shahed activity from Belarus. (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Yuriy Ihnat (UAF Air Force) confirms several drones entered Ukrainian airspace from Belarus overnight, indicating continued UAF situational awareness and tracking. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Zaporizhzhia OVA posts photo messages detailing the 'results of the week' on the Zaporizhzhia front, including damaged buildings and ongoing cleanup efforts, confirming active recovery and defensive posture. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). BУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares UAV footage of isolated Russian soldier losses on the Pokrovsk direction. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Commander-in-Chief Syrsky reports UAF regained control over 26 sq. km of Ukrainian land in two directions. (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports on the situation in the responsibility zones of subordinated military units as of 070900Z SEP 25, indicating active operations in the Kharkiv axis. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 7 Russian army assaults, at Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна shares video messages of Zelenskyy congratulating GUR soldiers on Military Intelligence Day. (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares photo messages congratulating on Military Intelligence Day. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares video messages celebrating Military Intelligence Day, highlighting UAF capabilities. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ promotes a new mini-album "GUR Works" with songs by intelligence officers to boost morale and highlight GUR activities. (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Ground Offensive with Massed Forces: RF demonstrates the capability to concentrate experienced marine units (e.g., "Somali" battalion) for "decisive breakthrough" offensives (Pokrovsk) and sustain attritional assaults (Avdiivka, Krasnolimansk, Konstantinovka). Claimed entry into Shandryholove and Novy Mir indicates localized advance capability. RF airborne forces are allegedly supporting advances towards Sumy. Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports two artillery regiments granted 'Guards' status, indicating internal military recognition. TASS (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports RF advances southeast of Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) claims "good advances" in Kupyansk. TASS reports RF forces gradually withdrawing from Serebryanka (DNR) and pushing UAF from Dronovka, demonstrating localized offensive actions. UPDATED: Colonelcassad's video claiming destruction of a UAF 2S3 "Akatsiya" SPA in Konstantinivka via FPV drones (Colonelcassad) confirms refined tactical targeting capabilities. RF milbloggers (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE) videos show active ground force operations. TASS reports RF repelled two UAF counterattacks in Andreevka, Sumy Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE), indicating strong defensive and counter-offensive capabilities. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF forces used Tornado MLRS to destroy railway infrastructure in Slaviansk (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports UAF withdrawing from Derilovo (DNR) (expert Marochko). Воин DV video shows RF drone targeting fortifications and vehicles in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RF "Dnipro" group actively striking UAF warehouses and command posts in Kherson Oblast (TASS via Saldo, HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo publishes a tactical map of Zaporizhzhia front. (WarGonzo, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора shares a video (Крымские берега посетил ведущий аналитик проекта «Рыбарь» Денис Щукин) depicting military training activities in what appears to be southern Ukraine, potentially related to assessing or demonstrating operational capabilities, with Rybar branding (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Народная милиция ДНР shares video claiming destruction of four UAF UAV launch positions by "Sparta" battalion (Народная милиция ДНР, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Воин DV shares photo messages on the situation on the South-Donetsk direction in the area of responsibility of the "Vostok" grouping of forces, showing a map with geographic features and military markings (Воин DV, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition shows a video of "VOIN" military-sports training center, focused on drone and unmanned systems, indicating ongoing RF training and development, enhancing their ground and ISR capabilities. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, HIGH CONFIDENCE). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares video of drone footage showing multiple explosions across terrain, potentially indicating RF artillery or air strikes, showcasing their ability to engage ground targets. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RF MoD claims liberation of 'Khoroshe' in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, extending their claimed territorial control. (MoD Russia, TASS, Colonelcassad, Операция Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares map updates indicating ongoing territorial adjustments. (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Hremyach of Chernihiv region, Odradokamyanka of Kherson region. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports clashes in Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions, confirming sustained multi-axis ground pressure. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports RF forces are increasingly using civilian vehicles to transport weapons for UAF to the Dnipro, with RF UAV crews successfully identifying and thwarting such actions. (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ reports RF FPV drone strike on a minibus in Sloviansk, indicating continued tactical drone use against ground targets. (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: MoD Russia shares photo messages on the progress of the special military operation as of 7 September 2025, providing a formal daily update on claimed successes. (MoD Russia, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Overwhelming Long-Range Strike & Air Presence: Continued high-volume drone launches (at least seven in Zaporizhzhia, new groups towards Chernihiv/Sumy/Kharkiv, confirmed "Geranium" strikes). Renewed Shahed and ballistic threats towards Kyiv, with PVO active and KMW reporting ongoing danger. Lethal application of drones against civilian targets (Zaporizhzhia residential buildings, kindergarten, now seventeen wounded civilians). RF has demonstrated a capability for rapid, multi-vector, high-volume drone attacks, now intensifying against central Ukrainian industrial and logistical hubs. RF demonstrates an ability to deploy "several hundred" Shahed-type UAVs simultaneously. Ballistic missile launches from Crimea targeting Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia Oblast confirm multi-domain strike capability. RF maintains capability for overwhelming, massed, multi-domain (UAV and ballistic missile) deep strikes, as evidenced by the two fatalities and eleven injuries in Kyiv and multiple hits in Kryvyi Rih. UPDATED: RF has initiated a new, high-intensity cruise missile attack (Iskander-K) across vast distances, demonstrating sophisticated multi-vector, high-speed missile strike capability. The confirmation of two fatalities and additional damage in Kyiv indicates the lethality of these strikes. The damage to Odesa's Sports Palace further highlights targeting of civilian infrastructure. RF has demonstrated a continued capability for high-speed missile strikes on critical infrastructure in Kyiv (administrative building in Pecherskyi district) and sustained attacks on civilian targets in Kryvyi Rih. RF Ministry of Defense reports 69 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed or intercepted over RF regions and the Azov Sea overnight (ТАСС, ASTRA, HIGH CONFIDENCE). The reported strike on a bridge over the Dnipro in Kremenchuk (РБК-Україна) indicates RF's ongoing capability to target critical infrastructure with precision. RF capabilities for overwhelming long-range strike remain very high, with 805 UAVs and 13 missiles launched overnight against Ukraine (ASTRA, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦). This includes the use of KABs on Pokrovska community, Synelnykivskyi district (Сергій Лисак). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: RF launched 810 drones and 13 missiles overnight (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports continued enemy tactical aviation activity in the Eastern direction and KAB launches on Sumy Oblast and Donetsk region (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). The video from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, captioned as "Video of the moment of impact on the bridge in Kremenchuk," strongly suggests a confirmed RF aerial strike on critical infrastructure (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports RF developed "Aurelia" modular special barriers to combat Ukrainian unmanned boats (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF sources (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) report three Shahed-type UAVs struck an equestrian club in Kyiv Oblast, resulting in animal fatalities but no human casualties (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares videos captioned "Прилеты ракет в Киеве", showing explosions in an urban environment at dusk with plumes of smoke (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора shares a photo of the Kryukiv bridge after a "Geran" strike, and a video captioned "Крюковский мосту через Днепр в Кременчуге после удара "Герани"" which appears to be unrelated fireworks footage (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares a similar video of nighttime explosions near a bridge, labeled "Прилеты ракет в Киеве," which also appears to be miscaptioned or unrelated to Kremenchuk (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports multiple groups of enemy UAVs from Sumy Oblast into Chernihiv Oblast. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Yuriy Ihnat confirms several Shahed-type UAVs entered Ukrainian airspace from Belarus overnight. (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast; assets engaged for shootdown. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA confirms Kremenchuk bridge damaged and movement suspended. (ASTRA, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports a new enemy UAV from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv Oblast (Brovary Raion). (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a group of Shaheds from the north moving towards Kyiv Oblast. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Kotsnews shares imagery of damage to a bridge structure captioned "Massive strike on Ukraine. Here's where they hit," confirming an aerial strike. (Kotsnews, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a Shahed drone entered Polish territory, flying towards Zamość, demonstrating a capability to project drone threats into NATO airspace. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of ballistic missile application from the north-eastern direction, with a high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, confirming ongoing missile launch capability. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олександр Вілкул reports high-precision strikes hit a warehouse with food packages for Kryvyi Rih residents and IDPs, demonstrating targeting of humanitarian aid infrastructure. (Олександр Вілкул, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 provides video and photo messages of aftermath of night attack in Odesa, confirming RF's capability to cause widespread damage to urban environments. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims a "complex strike" on Dnipropetrovsk Airport, indicating continued targeting of air infrastructure. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Advanced Information & Psychological Warfare: Aggressively promotes battlefield footage. Uses state media (TASS, Colonelcassad) to issue diplomatic warnings and disseminate ZNPP strike allegations. Actively conducting hybrid operations to destabilize neighboring states and fracture Western unity. Actively spreading disinformation (child trafficking allegations) and demoralizing PSYOPs (POW interviews, exploiting UAF memorials, exploiting UAF domestic policy debates, exploiting demographic concerns). Utilizing "humanizing" narratives for RF soldiers (kittens, paratrooper messages). Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) claims "Third party of eliminated Colombian mercenaries." RF is capable of rapidly generating new, false narratives such as linking UAF to "human traffickers." НгП раZVедка (HIGH CONFIDENCE) explicitly states the mood is to "take and beat the record of the Yavoriv training ground." Операция Z (HIGH CONFIDENCE) amplifies the WSJ report on Putin's attrition strategy. RF demonstrates a sophisticated capability to create humanizing narratives (e.g., veteran volunteer video from Colonelcassad) for internal consumption, while simultaneously employing extremely aggressive and dehumanizing psychological warfare (e.g., НгП раZVедка's statements about children in basements) to terrorize the adversary. UPDATED: TASS shares video messages of Peskov emphasizing 'difficult dialogue' to settle the situation in Ukraine. TASS promotes airfield modernization in the Far East and agreements at the Eastern Economic Forum as signs of RF economic strength and stability. NEW: RF milbloggers (WarGonzo, Colonelcassad) are amplifying the alleged scale of the overnight drone and missile attacks (805+ UAVs, 13 missiles) to maximize psychological impact (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports search warrants executed for Yana Skokova, CEO of "Bikleaver Finance," for illegal money withdrawal to non-RF residents, an internal IO to project legal enforcement (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Maria Zakharova stating Russia advocates reducing the digital divide and rejecting restrictions on technology access, likely an IO to counter Western sanctions/tech controls (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns uses derogatory language about Fico and Zelensky, confirming the "Druzhba" oil pipeline attack and lamenting that "nothing is shy" (Alex Parker Returns, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Старше Эдды shares promotional images of knives, possibly for morale or fundraising for military personnel (Старше Эдды, Alex Parker Returns, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора is fundraising for assault forces in Sumy direction, emphasizing the need for Mavic drones to save lives and push back the enemy (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА questions "What is the enemy preparing in the Black Sea?" with an image of a Russian warship (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad is fundraising for motorized infantry, volunteer detachments, and air defense fighters, requesting body armor, helmets, and medicine, demonstrating ongoing efforts to equip personnel and maintain morale (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares a video of additional strike aftermath in Kyiv (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Russian MoD shares video of EW units in Kharkov direction overwhelming enemy reconnaissance (MoD Russia, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash na Donbasse reports a civilian traffic accident in the Donbas region (Mash на Донбассе, HIGH CONFIDENCE). «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» reports an AI-generated scam targeting Moscow schoolchildren for Akhmat special forces (Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат», HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad reports fraud related to military contract payments in Leningrad Oblast (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of FSB detaining a 15-year-old for railway arson in Krasnodar Krai, framing it as a successful counter-sabotage operation (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Janus Putkonen (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) amplifies the narrative of a "night of a thousand drones, missiles, and air bombs in Ukraine" (Janus Putkonen, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS issues a warning about fraudulent calls not originating from a "+7" code, indicating internal security/scam awareness IO (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) shares videos about "Chicago against Trump's 'war rebranding'," focusing on civilian protests and immigration issues in the US, likely for internal RF consumption to portray Western societal divisions (Операция Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports on Malysheva's statement about Merz needing to feel responsibility for his words on conflict with Russia, an IO targeting Western politicians (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kadyrov_95 shares a video celebrating a birthday within his family, an IO to project normalcy and family values (Kadyrov_95, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы shares images of "Tasty - and that's it" (Russian McDonald's replacement) glasses breaking during washing, a domestic consumer IO (Новости Москвы, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора shares a video of Rybar analyst Denis Shchukin visiting Crimea, likely an IO to promote pro-Russian analysis and showcase Crimea (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS and Alex Parker Returns share videos of a large religious procession in Moscow, framed as a display of Russian unity and strength, with Alex Parker Returns ominously stating "Russians are coming! ... There will be pogroms. Good will prevail!" (ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns posts a photo with the caption "Little," possibly mocking the reported damage or casualties. (Alex Parker Returns, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Russkoi Vesny) reports the strike on Druzhba oil pipeline, framing it as a "cynical spit in the face of Europe" (Операция Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad reports on burning buildings after night arrivals in Dobropillia (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь (Rybar) posts an image with the caption "The Art of Greek Diplomacy," which may be a critical or satirical comment on international relations, part of their broader IO. (Рыбарь, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS shares a video of Peskov discussing Putin's daily sports routine, likely to project a positive image of Putin's leadership. (ТАСС, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы shares a video of a large religious procession in Moscow, emphasizing "thousands of believers," likely to project religious unity and strength. (Новости Москвы, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares a video celebrating the 11th anniversary of the Wagner PMC's successful storming of Lugansk airport, framed as a significant military victory, reinforcing RF narratives of historical military prowess. (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo shares photo messages celebrating the 246th anniversary of Gorlovka, calling it a "City of military glory and labor valor," which is a clear IO effort to boost morale and solidify control in occupied territories. (WarGonzo, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Police of Khabarovsk Krai shares an animated video providing internet safety advice, likely an internal IO effort to address cyber threats and scams, which could also be used to portray internal stability. (Полиция Хабаровского края, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares an image captioned "Тарана в действии" (Taran in action), likely referencing ramming tactics or a military maneuver, intended to show military prowess. (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports military analyst Igor Korotchenko's opinion that RF forces will continue to advance, and UAF will retreat, with UK's transfer of frozen assets profits not changing the situation, a clear IO to diminish the impact of Western aid. (ТАСС, HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia shares photo messages indicating the completion of the "Interaction 2025" joint exercise with CSTO CRRF in Belarus, aimed at projecting military strength and alliances. (MoD Russia, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) shares a video of Slovak Prime Minister discussing China's global influence, likely to portray perceived Western failures and promote alternative alliances. (Операция Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: TASS broadcasts a video of a large Moscow religious procession, projecting internal unity and strength. (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kotsnews shares imagery of damaged locations, captioned "Massive strike on Ukraine. Here's where they hit," amplifying RF strike claims. (Kotsnews, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) amplifies imagery captioned "Ukraine is boiling: thousands in the streets against Zelensky's regime," showing civilian protests. (Операция Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports on tightening alcohol sales restrictions across RF regions. (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports a Kamchatka resident filed a police report over a gas station refusing to sell him 60 liters of gasoline, indicating domestic frustration and fuel shortages. (ASTRA, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash на Донбассе reports a missing 9-year-old girl, an IO likely aimed at portraying civilian suffering. (Mash на Донбассе, HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка shares photo messages captioned "Massive strike on Ukraine's military infrastructure," amplifying damage claims. (НгП раZVедка, HIGH CONFIDENCE). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares video messages captioned "Our wounded are left on the battlefield," featuring women appealing for information on mobilized soldiers, possibly indicating RF internal morale issues and a UAF IO opportunity. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: MoD Russia shares photo messages on the progress of the special military operation as of 7 September 2025, providing a formal daily update on claimed successes. (MoD Russia, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports RF forces are increasingly using civilian vehicles to transport weapons for UAF to the Dnipro, with RF UAV crews successfully identifying and thwarting such actions, an IO message highlighting RF capabilities. (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Два майора shares videos of "Frontline Armor" donations to the "VBRONE31" unit, showcasing their ability to organize and distribute logistical support. (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора promotes ordering "Dva Mayora" chevrons, indicating the continued use of social media for fundraising and fostering unit identity. (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора shares a video summarizing "How I spent the summer. Part three. August," detailing various targets engaged and destroyed by drones, showcasing RF's drone operational capabilities and a propaganda effort to highlight their effectiveness. (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: РБК-Україна reports on world reactions to the "most massive RF strike on Ukraine," highlighting the international cognitive domain. (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts fundraising calls ("Збір, народ!"). (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF:
  • Defensive Posture: Actively defending against RF ground assaults on Pokrovsk, Avdiivka, and Krasnolimansk. Maintaining high air defense alert for Kyiv (renewed threat, PVO active, with confirmed hits on residential buildings, warehouse fire, and partial destruction of a 4-story building, and 2 confirmed casualties, now 15 injured, with 2 fatalities and 15 injured, administrative building on fire, new explosion reported, and over 20 injured), Chernihiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia (with increased casualties, and renewed strike on an enterprise), Kharkiv (with confirmed UAV) and now Lutsk against drone and ballistic threats, with PVO actively engaging targets. Documenting damage and civilian casualties (now seventeen wounded in Zaporizhzhia, now fifteen wounded in Kyiv, two fatalities in Kyiv, one fatality and 17 wounded in Primorske/Zaporizhzhia, one fatality in Orikhiv community). UAF General Staff reports 77 combat engagements. UAF PVO is currently active in Kyiv (Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, КМВА, HIGH CONFIDENCE). PVO active in Dnipro. UAF PVO is now on alert for new drone groups heading towards Znamianka, Svitlovodsk, and Kremenchuk, with Kremenchuk under confirmed attack. UAF is actively defending against renewed deep strikes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF is actively engaged against RF advances in Kupyansk. UAF PVO has successfully negated all remaining Shahed-type UAVs targeting Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih, and Dnipro. UAF has lifted the air raid alert for Kyiv and missile danger for Kryvyi Rih. UPDATED: UAF PVO is currently active in Kyiv against inbound cruise missiles. UAF PVO is active across Sumy, Mykolaiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts against multiple incoming cruise missiles, including Iskander-K. Oleksandr Vilkul reports new missile attacks on Kryvyi Rih with explosions. UAF continues to document damage to civilian infrastructure, including Odesa's Sports Palace. KMVA reports an administrative building in Kyiv's Pecherskyi district is on fire due to a likely intercepted UAV. UAF reports one fatality and 17 wounded in Primorske and Zaporizhzhia (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE), and one fatality in Orikhiv community. Оперативний ЗСУ (HIGH CONFIDENCE) confirms consequences of a massive combined strike on Kyiv (Кличко). UAF Air Force reports RF reconnaissance UAVs in Kyiv and Chernihiv regions (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ reports 29 UAVs were shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports 805 UAVs and 13 missiles attacked Ukraine overnight (ASTRA, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦), confirming active UAF air defense engagements. UAF PVO destroyed 10 enemy UAVs over Cherkasy region overnight (Оперативний ЗСУ). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: UAF PVO forces were active overnight in Rivne Oblast and Khmelnytskyi Oblast, successfully engaging air targets. (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE) Commander-in-Chief Syrsky reports UAF units repelled approximately 350 RF attacks on the Pokrovsk direction over the past week, confirming a strong and active defensive posture against RF's largest offensive grouping. (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE) Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports on a commander's work in active combat zones (Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Siverskyi directions) at command posts, indicating ongoing UAF leadership and presence on the front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF Air Force shot down/suppressed 751 enemy targets overnight. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO claims over 40 RF drones were shot down this night by "drone interceptors." (STERNENKO, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF continues to document casualties in Kyiv, with 20+ injured. (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" shares a video celebrating Military Intelligence Day. (‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», HIGH CONFIDENCE). Сергій Лисак (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)) shares a motivational video celebrating Ukrainian Military Intelligence Day, featuring special forces in training (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ shares a similar video from Commander-in-Chief Syrsky, congratulating military intelligence on their day and showcasing training (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Сили оборони Півдня України reports 1 cruise missile and 45 Shahed-136/131 UAVs destroyed in the operational zone of the "South" grouping (Сили оборони Півдня України, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports multiple groups of enemy UAVs from Sumy Oblast into Chernihiv Oblast. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Yuriy Ihnat confirms several Shahed-type UAVs entered Ukrainian airspace from Belarus overnight, demonstrating continued UAF situational awareness. (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast; assets engaged for shootdown. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). The 2nd Mountain Assault Battalion of the 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade is actively destroying enemy forces near Pyatykhatky. (✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) shares photo messages of families of prisoners of war reminding about torture in Russian captivity during a peace march in Paris, which is a clear UAF counter-IO effort to highlight RF war crimes and galvanize international support. (Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of combat operations in the Eastern direction. (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна shares a video confirming Shahed activity from Belarus. (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Yuriy Ihnat (UAF Air Force) confirms several drones entered Ukrainian airspace from Belarus overnight, indicating continued UAF situational awareness and tracking. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Zaporizhzhia OVA posts photo messages detailing the 'results of the week' on the Zaporizhzhia front, including damaged buildings and ongoing cleanup efforts, confirming active recovery and defensive posture. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). BУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares UAV footage of isolated Russian soldier losses on the Pokrovsk direction. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Commander-in-Chief Syrsky reports UAF regained control over 26 sq. km of Ukrainian land in two directions. (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports on the situation in the responsibility zones of subordinated military units as of 070900Z SEP 25, indicating active operations in the Kharkiv axis. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 7 Russian army assaults, at Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна shares video messages of Zelenskyy congratulating GUR soldiers on Military Intelligence Day. (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares photo messages congratulating on Military Intelligence Day. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares video messages celebrating Military Intelligence Day, highlighting UAF capabilities. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ promotes a new mini-album "GUR Works" with songs by intelligence officers to boost morale and highlight GUR activities. (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Offensive/Deep Strike Capabilities: Confirmed deep strikes on RF territory (Bryansk, Belgorod, Klimovo) and successful long-term campaign against RF oil refineries (Ryazan, Krasnodar, Saratov, Syzran, Samara) throughout August demonstrate sustained and effective UAF deep strike capabilities impacting RF logistics and economy. ASTRA reports a successful UAF deep strike on the Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, which caught fire, confirming continued effectiveness. TASS reports RF air defense destroyed 69 UAF UAVs over RF and Azov Sea and 2 over Bryansk Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE), indicating continued UAF deep strike activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: ASTRA and Оперативний ЗСУ share alleged footage of the Ilsky Oil Refinery attack, providing visual confirmation of a successful UAF deep strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). 14th SBS Regiment attacked the "Druzhba" oil pipeline's linear production and dispatch station "8-N" in Naytopovichi, Bryansk Oblast, demonstrating continued deep strike capability. (Оперативний ЗСУ, Alex Parker Returns, STERNENKO, РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF General Staff (Генштаб підтвердив ураження важливих об'єктів рф) confirms strikes on important RF objects (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms the strike on Ilsky Oil Refinery and Druzhba oil pipeline. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Strategic Resolve & Diplomacy: Acknowledging the 3rd anniversary of the Kharkiv Offensive (КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno) as a morale booster. President Zelensky emphasizes diplomatic activity ("Ramstein" format), PURL program for American weapons, increased air defense, and nearing 60% self-sufficiency in weapons, including domestic production of advanced anti-aircraft systems. UAF GUR head Budanov (Оперативний ЗСУ, Alex Parker Returns, HIGH CONFIDENCE) expresses strong confidence in Ukraine's endurance against RF attrition strategy. UAF General Staff (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE) continues to release daily estimated RF combat losses. NEW: UAF is actively documenting war crimes, with the Prosecutor General's Office sharing information on the Kyiv attack. (Офіс Генерального прокурора, HIGH CONFIDENCE) Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports on commanders visiting active combat zones, demonstrating continued leadership and strategic oversight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF demonstrates resolve in publicizing the shooting down/suppression of 751 enemy targets. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Challenges: Facing overwhelming RF force concentration at Pokrovsk, continued high-volume drone and KAB attacks on civilian and critical infrastructure (Zaporizhzhia, Chornomorsk), and the potential for a severe diplomatic crisis stemming from the alleged ZNPP strike. Dealing with direct Western political challenges to military aid (Bavarian PM) and RF's aggressive IO (POW interviews, humanizing narratives, recruitment efforts, exploitation of domestic policy debates, exploitation of demographic concerns, new claims of foreign mercenaries, and attempts to delegitimize Maidan). Civilian resilience in frontline towns like Mekhove and Rodynske is severely tested. The increased number of wounded civilians in Zaporizhzhia to seventeen underscores the severe impact of RF strikes. Logistical challenges exacerbated by Polish border blockade (from previous SITREP). The significant new deep strike activity targeting central Ukraine (Znamianka, Svitlovodsk, Kremenchuk, Kropyvnytskyi, Starokostiantyniv, Reshetylivka) represents a major new challenge to UAF air defense and critical infrastructure protection. RF milblogger's explicit intent for mass casualties and amplification of Putin's attrition strategy poses a renewed psychological challenge. RF claims of significant advances in Kupyansk, if accurate, represent a serious tactical setback. The current multi-domain (UAV and ballistic) and high-volume deep strike campaign is causing confirmed impacts on residential buildings and warehouses in Kyiv, and widespread power outages in Kremenchuk. UPDATED: The renewed cruise missile attacks on Kyiv and Kryvyi Rih are a severe, escalating challenge to UAF air defenses and civilian protection. The widespread missile threats across Sumy, Mykolaiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts demonstrate RF's intent to stretch UAF resources while simultaneously striking critical targets. The confirmed deaths of a young woman and a child in Kyiv due to missile attack is a severe humanitarian impact. RF IO claiming UAF 80th Air Assault Brigade refusal to fight poses a direct challenge to UAF morale and cohesion. The ongoing missile and drone attacks on Kyiv and Kryvyi Rih, with confirmed impacts on civilian administrative and residential buildings, continue to pose a severe challenge to urban resilience, civilian safety, and emergency services. The strike on a bridge in Kremenchuk will likely cause significant logistical disruption. The reported three wounded civilians in Odesa from a drone strike, and the overnight massed drone attacks on Odesa and Odesa Raion, compound the humanitarian and logistical challenges. The death of a woman in Orikhiv community also adds to the humanitarian challenges. The destruction of railway infrastructure in Slaviansk (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, HIGH CONFIDENCE) adds to logistical challenges in the Donetsk axis. The massive RF air attack (805 UAVs, 13 missiles) presents an overwhelming air defense challenge across the entire country. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: The confirmed deaths of a 32-year-old woman and her two-month-old son in Kyiv (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE) significantly escalate the humanitarian challenge and psychological impact on the civilian population. The ongoing search for a third body (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE) indicates the potential for further casualties. The KMVA's report of over 10 damaged locations in Kyiv from direct drone hits into residential buildings (КМВА, РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE) further exacerbates logistical and humanitarian response challenges. UAF is facing immense pressure on the Pokrovsk direction, with Syrsky reporting 350 attacks repelled in a week from RF's largest offensive grouping. This indicates a severe and sustained ground threat. (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE) Railway disruptions in Poltava Oblast due to strikes in Kremenchuk Raion (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE) pose a direct and immediate logistical challenge. RF IO mocking UAF PVO capabilities and framing Western intervention (MNF-U staff) (НгП раZVедка, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, HIGH CONFIDENCE) adds to the cognitive domain challenges. Over 20 injured in Kyiv further strains emergency and medical services. (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF attack on an equestrian club in Kyiv Oblast, while not causing human casualties, resulted in animal fatalities (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH CONFIDENCE), adding to the psychological impact of RF attacks on civilian life. The attack on a tent camp in Sumy Oblast, with one casualty and a child among the wounded (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE), highlights continued humanitarian impact. The renewed Polish farmer blockade at Medyka border crossing (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE) is a significant and immediate logistical constraint, impacting critical supplies. The destruction of burning buildings in Dobropillia from night strikes represents ongoing challenges from RF attacks. (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). BUТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports three fatalities in Kyiv, two women and a child, further escalating the humanitarian crisis. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: The reported Shahed drone entering Polish territory (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE) poses a severe diplomatic challenge and risk of international escalation. The reported domestic fuel shortages in RF (ASTRA, HIGH CONFIDENCE) highlight potential vulnerabilities, but also the challenges for UAF to capitalize on them. The increased fatalities in Kyiv (now three, including a pregnant woman undergoing emergency childbirth with baby's life in danger) significantly escalate the humanitarian crisis and psychological impact. (КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олександр Вілкул reports the destruction of over 60,000 food supply packages in Kryvyi Rih, leading to a significant humanitarian challenge for the civilian population and IDPs. (Олександр Вілкул, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• International:
  • Diplomatic Momentum: RF is actively using state media to issue strong warnings regarding Western military aid (Taurus missiles). The Ukrainian MP's statement about a "coalition of willing" (ASTRA) could signal new forms of international involvement. Statements from figures like the Bavarian PM (Colonelcassad) indicate internal Western divisions that RF is likely to exploit. Identification of RF chemical weapon use will likely intensify international condemnation. Slovak PM Fico's statement on Putin's interest in meeting Zelensky could open new diplomatic avenues. RF Ambassador Nechaev issues warnings against Western "war preparation" statements (TASS). Операция Z promotes the idea of Putin and Trump preventing World War III. New RF IO tactics are intended to sow discord between Ukraine and its allies (e.g., Poland) and discredit Western military aid/production. TASS reporting on Trump's Caribbean drug operations might be an attempt to indirectly pressure US policy. TASS (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports on the possibility of a meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in South Korea. UPDATED: TASS shares video messages of Peskov emphasizing the need for 'difficult dialogue' to settle the situation in Ukraine, but also stating 'complete support' for peaceful initiatives. This is a diplomatic IO designed to project reasonableness and a desire for peace, while acknowledging the complexity. NEW: TASS reports Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba intends to resign, which could impact international diplomatic dynamics and is being used by RF to highlight global political shifts (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition reports on the formation of a multinational force (MNF-U) staff in Kyiv, to be led by a British officer with French military involvement, for "post-war coordination," signaling RF's intent to frame Western support as interventionist (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Maria Zakharova stating Russia advocates reducing the digital divide and rejecting restrictions on technology access, likely an IO to counter Western sanctions and technology controls globally. (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports on Malysheva's statement about Merz needing to feel responsibility for his words on conflict with Russia, an IO targeting Western politicians (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) shares a video of Slovak Prime Minister discussing China's global influence, likely to portray perceived Western failures and promote alternative alliances. (Операция Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: The reported Shahed drone entering Polish territory (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE) creates a serious international incident, potentially leading to increased NATO-Russia tensions and diplomatic pressure.

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

RF forces continue multi-axis ground offensives, with primary effort on the Pokrovsk axis, where UAF confirmed repelling approximately 350 attacks in the past week. Deep strikes persist on Ukrainian energy, industrial, and civilian infrastructure, with a significant increase in volume and geographic spread of Shahed-type UAV and ballistic/cruise missile attacks. Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, Kremenchuk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro and Odesa have been heavily targeted. Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) maintain defensive posture, conduct counter-drone operations, and execute deep strikes into RF territory. RF continues to advance, claiming capture of "New World" settlement and Shandryholove, and now claims liberation of 'Khoroshe' in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Renewed drone activity targeted Chernihiv, Sumy, Kyiv, and Kharkiv, with Zaporizhzhia experiencing significant damage to civilian infrastructure and a marked increase in civilian casualties. A new RF drone has been reported near Lutsk, and an explosion in Kharkiv. Air raid alerts are active in Lipetsk Oblast and other RF regions. RF claims 31 UAF UAVs destroyed over its territory in four hours. Volgograd airport flight restrictions were lifted. RF IO intensifies with new claims of "Colombian mercenaries" eliminated and further attempts to destabilize Ukrainian public sentiment regarding Maidan. UAF intelligence assesses RF capable of another mobilization, despite internal pain. Explosions reported in Dnipro. RF claims a breakthrough at Kupyansk, while RF state media amplifies narratives of Western warmongering and RF peace initiatives. RF command structure changes include two artillery regiments receiving 'Guards' status. RF milbloggers are claiming a "massive raid" of 116 "Geraniums" across Ukraine, including Kyiv. RF propaganda is also attempting to link UAF to "human traffickers" in Zaporizhzhia and is mocking Polish-made drones. RF deep strike activity initiated towards Kirovohrad Oblast (Znamianka) and Poltava Oblast (Svitlovodsk/Kremenchuk), with Kremenchuk confirmed under attack by a large drone group (12 Shahed-type UAVs), and additional 3 Shahed-type UAVs confirmed inbound to Kremenchuk and 3 Shahed-type UAVs towards Kropyvnytskyi. RF milbloggers are expressing intentions to exceed previous casualty records with massed strikes, and are amplifying Wall Street Journal reports on Putin's attrition strategy. TASS claims RF advances southeast of Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast, despite UAF pressure. Explosions have been reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including in the Shevchenkivskyi district of Zaporizhzhia city. RF milbloggers are claiming significant advances in Kupyansk, expecting "interesting news" by morning. Air raid alerts were active in Volyn Oblast due to a Shahed-type UAV. Further Shahed-type UAVs were reported inbound to Starokostiantyniv (Khmelnytskyi Oblast) and Znamianka (Kirovohrad Oblast), and Reshetylivka (Poltava Oblast) was under attack. One Shahed-type UAV was also reported over Dnipro. Temporary flight restrictions were introduced at Nizhny Novgorod airport (RF) and at Zhukovsky airport (RF). RF milbloggers are expressing dismissive attitudes towards Kremenchuk, despite ongoing strikes, and are using dehumanizing language related to sheltering children in basements. RF milbloggers report "several hundred" Shahed-type UAVs ("Khryakonaklonitely") in Ukrainian airspace, with more appearing. TASS reports RF forces are gradually withdrawing from Serebryanka (DNR) and consolidating positions outside the settlement, pushing UAF out of nearby Dronovka. This indicates localized RF repositioning and offensive action in the Donetsk axis. A Shahed-type UAV was reported towards Kovel (Volyn Oblast), and another towards Pivdenne/Koblevo (Odesa Oblast). Two Shahed-type UAVs were reported inbound to Kryvyi Rih. Multiple explosions are reported in Kyiv, with burning vehicles on a parking lot in Svyatoshynskyi district due to RF attack. Ballistic missile launches from Crimea were reported targeting Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Three Shahed-type UAVs were over Kyiv, and two were approaching Zaporizhzhia from the north. An RF milblogger shares a video of an alleged UAF soldier stating his intention to go abroad, indicating continued RF information operations targeting UAF morale and mobilization. Explosions are reported in Kryvyi Rih. RF deep strikes are impacting residential multi-story buildings in Kyiv's Svyatoshynskyi district, causing fires. Kremenchuk is experiencing dozens of explosions, leading to widespread power outages in parts of the city. RF President Putin is presented with latest engine production by Rostec in Samara, emphasizing domestic military-industrial capabilities. Three individuals have died in an explosion in a tunnel in Khabarovsk Krai, RF. RF has launched additional high-speed targets towards Kryvyi Rih. Renewed explosions are confirmed in Zaporizhzhia, targeting an enterprise. RF Shahed-type UAVs are attacking Odesa, with explosions confirmed, and a significant new group of 8 UAVs reported targeting Usatove/Odesa/Chornomorsk. Additional 11 Shahed-type UAVs from Kharkiv Oblast are inbound towards Samar/Dnipro. In Kyiv's Svyatoshynskyi district, another 9-story building is ablaze, and a warehouse fire is reported. In Kyiv's Darnitskyi district, a 4-story building has partial third-floor destruction. In Kyiv, one person has died in Svyatoshynskyi district, and an elderly woman has died in an underground shelter in Darnitskyi district, bringing total fatalities to two. The number of injured in Kyiv has risen to eleven. All remaining Shahed-type UAVs targeting Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih, and Dnipro have been negated (shot down or passed). TASS reports that a settlement of the Ukrainian conflict is approaching due to dialogue between US and Russian presidents (Kirill Dmitriev), which is an RF IO message. TASS also reports that director Zhora Kryzhovnikov is on Ukraine's Myrotvorets website, an RF IO message of victimhood. UPDATED: Air raid alerts activated in Kyiv and Poltava Oblast due to multiple inbound cruise missiles. Cruise missiles are observed over Sumy Oblast (towards Pryluky), Beryslavskyi Raion (towards Bereznehuvate), Mykolaiv Oblast (towards Voznesensk), and are approaching Kryvyi Rih and Kyiv. Explosions reported in Kryvyi Rih from Iskander-K missiles. RF IO emphasizes the need for 'difficult dialogue' to settle the situation in Ukraine. Two fatalities (one young woman, one one-year-old child) confirmed in Kyiv's Svyatoshynskyi district from the current missile attack (Klichko). Another explosion reported in Odesa. Some power outages in Kyiv after missile attacks. RF claims destruction of a UAF 2S3 "Akatsiya" SPG in Konstantinivka via FPV drones (Colonelcassad). TASS reports RF plans to modernize 29 airfields in the Far East with 158 billion rubles. TASS also reports Russian universities may drop "Social Studies" from ЕГЭ in favor of "History." TASS reports 358 agreements worth 6.058 trillion rubles signed at the Eastern Economic Forum in 2025. UAF confirms damage to a sports palace in Odesa.

1.1.1. New Intelligence (Since Previous Sitrep Update 071003Z SEP 25)

• RF Ground Operations:
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: RF Ministry of Defense claims forces liberated 'Khoroshe' in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Colonelcassad and Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) amplify this claim, stating it brings 7 settlements in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast under RF control. (TASS, Colonelcassad, Операция Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Zaporizhzhia Front: UAF Zaporizhzhia OVA posts photo messages detailing the 'results of the week' on the Zaporizhzhia front, including damaged buildings and ongoing cleanup efforts, indicating continued RF pressure and UAF defensive/recovery operations. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Pokrovsk Direction, Donetsk Oblast: UAF BУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares UAV footage showing a Russian soldier alone in a devastated wooded area, eventually incapacitated or deceased, captioned as a "member of the Russian contact group awaiting another round of 'peace' talks." This indicates continued intense combat and isolated RF personnel losses. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Dnipro Direction (RF Claim): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo message with the caption "Dnepropetrovsk direction," implying continued RF focus or activity in this area. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Sloviansk Direction: Оперативний ЗСУ reports RF FPV drone strike on a minibus in Sloviansk. (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Kharkiv Direction: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports on the situation in the responsibility zones of subordinated military units as of 070900Z SEP 25, indicating active operations in the Kharkiv axis. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Ambarne, Kamyanka and towards Novovasylivka in the South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Kupyansk Direction: Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Kupyansk and towards Novoplatonivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Lyman Direction: Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Hrekivka, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Kolodyazi, Torske and towards Shandryholove, Derylove. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Siversk Direction: Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Serebryanka, Hryhorivka, Pereyizne and towards Dronivka. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Kramatorsk Direction: Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Bondarne, Virolubivka, Stupochka and Bila Hora. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Toretsk Direction: Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Scherbynivka, Katerynivka, Rusyn Yar, Poltavka and towards Pleschiyivka. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Novopavlivka Direction: Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Zelenyy Hay, Tolstoy, Maliyivka, Shevchenko, Komyshuvakha and towards Filiya, Oleksandrohrad, Novoselivka, Sosnivka. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Orikhiv Direction: Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Stepnohirsk. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) Direction: Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian army assaults. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • General Assessment RF Ground Ops: TASS reports RF forces are increasingly using civilian vehicles to transport weapons for UAF to the Dnipro, with RF UAV crews successfully identifying and thwarting such actions. (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• RF Deep Strikes:
  • Kyiv Oblast: New Shahed groups are reported coming from the north towards Kyiv Oblast (STERNENKO, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Poltava Oblast (Kremenchuk bridge): Kotsnews shares imagery of damage to a bridge structure, captioned "Massive strike on Ukraine. Here's where they hit," which appears to be the Kremenchuk bridge, confirming impact. (Kotsnews, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Polish Airspace Violation: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a Shahed drone entered Polish territory, flying towards Zamość. The video shows a man reacting to a drone at night. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • General Deep Strike Threat: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of ballistic missile application from the north-eastern direction, with a high-speed target in Sumy Oblast. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Kryvyi Rih: Олександр Вілкул reports high-precision strikes hit a warehouse with food packages for Kryvyi Rih residents and IDPs, destroying over 60,000 food supply packages. (Олександр Вілкул, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Odesa: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 provides video and photo messages of aftermath of night attack in Odesa. The video shows damaged residential buildings, broken windows, structural damage, debris, and a street cleaning vehicle. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Dnipropetrovsk Airport: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims a "complex strike" on Dnipropetrovsk Airport. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Zaporizhzhia: Colonelcassad shares video of a "Geranium" (Shahed) strike in Zaporizhzhia on 06 SEP 25, indicating continued targeting. (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Sumy: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares video of a Russian drone strike on a residential five-story building in Sumy. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF Air Defense:
  • Overnight Shootdowns: Yuriy Ihnat (UAF Air Force) confirms that several drones entered Ukrainian airspace from Belarus overnight. He also reiterates that 751 enemy targets were destroyed/suppressed overnight, including 747 drones and 4 Iskander-K cruise missiles. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Odesa: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares thermal imagery of Shahed shootdowns by the Odesa anti-aircraft missile brigade. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF Ground Operations:
  • Territorial Gains: Commander-in-Chief Syrsky states UAF regained control over 26 sq. km of Ukrainian land in two directions, while losing 5 sq. km in August. (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Tactical Actions: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports a UAF soldier impersonated an RF soldier and eliminated two occupiers. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • General Assessment UAF Ground Ops: 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України shares photo messages regarding "Enemy Losses" over the period 01.09-06.09.2025 (likely 2024), indicating active engagements. (46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• UAF Deep Strikes:
  • Ilsky Oil Refinery: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that special operations forces (SSO) destroyed the ELOU-AT-6 unit at the Ilsky Oil Refinery, responsible for primary oil refining. (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Druzhba Pipeline: Два майора reports UAF attacked the "Druzhba" oil pipeline again. (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Information Environment:
  • RF IO (Internal Unity/Morale): TASS and Военкор Котенок broadcast a video of a large Moscow religious procession, emphasizing spiritual unity. Kotsnews amplifies this with additional videos. (TASS, Военкор Котенок, Kotsnews, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash на Донбассе shares a video of swans, seemingly for domestic soft power, perhaps to normalize the situation or create a sense of peace. (Mash на Донбассе, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RF IO (Damage Assessment Amplification): Kotsnews shares imagery of damaged locations, captioned "Massive strike on Ukraine. Here's where they hit," consistent with RF efforts to amplify perceived success. НгП раZVедка shares photo messages captioned "Massive strike on Ukraine's military infrastructure," amplifying damage claims. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares photo messages with "New strikes on Ukraine." (Kotsnews, НгП раZVедка, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ТАСС reports an RF UAV operator destroyed three "Baba Yaga" hexacopters during launch in Kherson Oblast. (ТАСС, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RF IO (Anti-Ukrainian Sentiment): Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) amplifies imagery captioned "Ukraine is boiling: thousands in the streets against Zelensky's regime," showing civilian protests to portray internal Ukrainian instability. The translated testimony of a captured soldier by Оперативний ЗСУ, criticizing 'Akhmat' and Kadyrov's corruption, is being weaponized by UAF IO to undermine RF internal cohesion, but also provides insight into RF force morale. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares video messages captioned "Our wounded are left on the battlefield," featuring women appealing for information on mobilized soldiers, possibly indicating RF internal morale issues. (Операция Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, HIGH CONFIDENCE). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА discusses greater regional powers for labor migration, emphasizing migrants respecting Russian law and culture, reflecting internal RF policy and potentially anti-immigrant sentiment. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Воин DV shares archived footage of battles around Yalta (DNR) to highlight RF 'liberation' efforts. (Воин DV, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RF Domestic Issues: TASS reports most RF regions have tightened requirements for alcohol sales, and bans may be strengthened, reflecting internal social policies. ASTRA reports a resident of Kamchatka filed a police report because a gas station refused to sell him 60 liters of gasoline, indicating continued fuel shortages and domestic frustration within RF. (TASS, ASTRA, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA promotes a VPN for WhatsApp and Telegram, implying continued restrictions or surveillance concerns. (ASTRA, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RF Propaganda (Loss Denial/Minimization): Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video of a man complaining about fuel prices in Russia, framed with a Ukrainian caption that mocks the situation, indicating UAF counter-IO efforts to highlight RF domestic issues. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RF Battlefield Maps: Colonelcassad shares multiple map overlays captioned "Changes on the map over the past day," providing a RF perspective on territorial changes. Colonelcassad shares a tactical map overlay titled "Situation in the South-Donetsk Direction in the Zone of Responsibility of the 'Vostok' Group of Forces," indicating active operational reporting. Рыбарь posts "They will start attacking," likely hinting at future RF offensives. (Colonelcassad, Рыбарь, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • RF Civilian Casualties (IO): Mash на Донбассе reports a 9-year-old girl is missing in Okhovatka Ilinka, likely an IO message focusing on civilian suffering in areas claimed by RF. (Mash на Донбассе, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF IO: РБК-Україна shares video messages of Zelenskyy congratulating GUR soldiers on Military Intelligence Day. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares photo messages congratulating on Military Intelligence Day. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares video messages celebrating Military Intelligence Day, highlighting UAF capabilities. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video of the Kakhovka embankment before the "liberators," likely an IO message to highlight Russian destruction. STERNENKO shares photo messages concerning an alleged killer of Andriy Parubiy, investigating social networks. This suggests UAF counter-IO efforts related to internal security and political narratives. Оперативний ЗСУ promotes a new mini-album "GUR Works" with songs by intelligence officers to boost morale and highlight GUR activities. (РБК-Україна, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF Casualties: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that a pregnant woman injured in the Kyiv attack underwent emergency childbirth, with doctors fighting for the baby's life. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) and Оперативний ЗСУ report information about a third fatality in Kyiv from the night attack, though KVMBA later states this is unconfirmed. РБК-Україна confirms the increased number of dead in Kyiv. РБК-Україна reports a pregnant woman injured in the Kyiv attack gave birth to a son, both transferred to a Kyiv city clinical hospital, with doctors fighting for the baby's life. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF Morale: STERNENKO announces a podcast with Volodymyr Mykolaienko, ex-mayor of Kherson, who recently returned from captivity, likely to boost morale. (STERNENKO, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • UAF Economic/Industrial: Сергій Лисак (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)) shares a video celebrating Entrepreneurship Day in Ukraine, highlighting domestic production. (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • General Note: Colonelcassad shares a video captioned "07 September 2025", showing a series of explosions over water at night. While the caption provides a date, the exact nature of the event and its location are unclear without further context. Два майора shares videos of "Frontline Armor" donations to the "VBRONE31" unit, highlighting ongoing support and logistics activity. Два майора promotes ordering "Dva Mayora" chevrons, indicating fundraising and identity-building efforts. Два майора shares a video summarizing "How I spent the summer. Part three. August," detailing various targets engaged and destroyed by drones, showcasing RF's operational capabilities. РБК-Україна reports on world reactions to the "most massive RF strike on Ukraine." Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts fundraising calls ("Збір, народ!"). (Colonelcassad, Два майора, РБК-Україна, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Zvиздец Мангусту is fundraising for a vehicle for SSO fighters. (Zvиздец Мангусту, HIGH CONFIDENCE). STERNENKO is fundraising for a Boker knife. (STERNENKO, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Information Environment Changes:
  • Kyiv Fatalities: KMVA clarified that the information regarding a third fatality in Kyiv was unconfirmed. (КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Air Threat Reduction: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued an "All Clear" for air threat. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • New UAV Groups: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports several groups of enemy UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast moving southwest. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Conditions remain clear and favorable for ongoing air operations by both sides, including missile strikes on Kyiv and Kryvyi Rih, and the UAF deep strike on the Ilsky Oil Refinery. The destruction of 69 UAF UAVs over RF territory and the Azov Sea (RF MoD) confirms favorable conditions for UAF deep strikes and RF air defense activity. The reported drone penetration of a house in Odesa further indicates clear conditions for drone operations. RF reconnaissance UAVs are operating in Kyiv and Chernihiv regions (UAF Air Force, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Poltava Oblast is experiencing direct hits and falling debris from shot down targets (ОВА, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Николаевский Ванёк reports that remaining Shahed-type UAVs are circling in the Chernihiv Oblast, indicating continued air threat (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The total number of UAVs (805) and missiles (13) used by RF overnight across Ukraine (ASTRA, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦) confirms widespread, unhindered air operations. UAF PVO destroying 10 UAVs over Cherkasy region indicates continued air defense activity under favorable conditions for engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE). UPDATED: UAF Air Force reports enemy tactical aviation activity in the Eastern direction and KAB launches on Sumy Oblast and Donetsk region, confirming continued favorable conditions for RF air operations and precision strikes. PVO forces were active overnight in Rivne Oblast and Khmelnytskyi Oblast, indicating continued clear conditions for drone operations by RF and air defense engagements by UAF (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Clear conditions enabled a successful UAF deep strike on the Druzhba oil pipeline in Bryansk Oblast. (Оперативний ЗСУ, Alex Parker Returns, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Yuriy Ihnat's report confirms clear conditions allowed Shaheds to enter Ukraine from Belarus. (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). The UAF Air Force reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast, indicating clear conditions over the Black Sea. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Continued RF UAV activity towards Kyiv Oblast from Chernihiv Oblast and from the north suggests favorable conditions for sustained drone operations. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: The reported Shahed entering Polish airspace also indicates clear conditions for extended-range drone operations. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of ballistic missile application from the north-eastern direction, with a high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, indicating clear conditions for such launches. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF:
  • Ground Forces: Confirmed concentration of experienced marine units, including the "Somali" battalion, and ongoing combat for a "decisive breakthrough" at Pokrovsk. Sustained pressure in Avdiivka, Krasnolimansk, and Konstantinovka. Claimed entry into Shandryholove and Novy Mir (Rubtsovsk direction). Intercepted communications reveal instances of friendly fire, suggesting potential C2/discipline issues in some units. UAF General Staff confirms 77 engagements. Colonelcassad shares data on UAF equipment losses. RF airborne forces are allegedly supporting advances towards Sumy. Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports on two artillery regiments having been granted 'Guards' status. TASS (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports RF military personnel advancing southeast of Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast, despite UAF counterattacks. "Сливочный каприз" (HIGH CONFIDENCE) imagery suggests continued ISR or ground activity. Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) indicates RF forces have made "good advances" in Kupyansk. TASS reports RF forces are gradually withdrawing from Serebryanka (DNR) and pushing UAF from Dronovka. UPDATED: Colonelcassad's video claiming the destruction of a UAF 2S3 "Akatsiya" SPA in Konstantinivka using fiber-optic FPV drones indicates RF's continued and refined capability for tactical targeting of UAF artillery assets. RF milbloggers (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE) post videos showing RF military vehicles, personnel in camouflage, tactical movements in various terrains, and military camps, indicating active ground force operations and ongoing deployment/training. TASS reports Russian military forces repelled two counterattacks by the UAF 225th Separate Assault Regiment in Andreevka, Sumy Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF forces used Tornado MLRS to destroy railway infrastructure in Slaviansk (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports UAF units are withdrawing from Derilovo (DNR) and redeploying southwest of the settlement (expert Marochko). Воин DV video shows RF drone targeting fortifications and vehicles in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, confirming active tactical engagements and ISR capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: RF "Dnipro" group is actively striking UAF warehouses and command posts in Kherson Oblast (TASS via Saldo, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a photo message focusing on the "Kupyansk direction," implying continued RF ground force focus or activity in this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports special forces from Ukraine's border service were redeployed to Vovchansk, trained by US instructors, and visited by former Secretary Blinken, indicating a focus on border security and potential for cross-border operations. (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора fundraising for assault forces in Sumy direction, indicating active operations in that sector. (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo publishes a tactical map of the Zaporizhzhia front. (WarGonzo, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора shares a video (Крымские берега посетил ведущий аналитик проекта «Рыбарь» Денис Щукин) depicting military training activities in what appears to be southern Ukraine, potentially related to assessing or demonstrating operational capabilities, with Rybar branding (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Народная милиция ДНР shares video claiming destruction of four UAF UAV launch positions by "Sparta" battalion (Народная милиция ДНР, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Воин DV shares photo messages on the situation on the South-Donetsk direction in the area of responsibility of the "Vostok" grouping of forces, showing a map with geographic features and military markings (Воин DV, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition shows a video of "VOIN" military-sports training center, focused on drone and unmanned systems, indicating ongoing RF training and development. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo shares photo messages celebrating the 246th anniversary of Gorlovka, likely to boost morale and solidify control in occupied territories. (WarGonzo, HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia shares photo messages indicating the completion of the "Interaction 2025" joint exercise with CSTO CRRF in Belarus, aimed at projecting military strength and alliances. (MoD Russia, HIGH CONFIDENCE). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares video of drone footage showing multiple explosions across terrain, potentially indicating RF artillery or air strikes. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: RF MoD claims liberation of 'Khoroshe' in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (MoD Russia, TASS, Colonelcassad, Операция Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares maps titled "Changes on the map over the past day," indicating claimed territorial shifts. (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Hremyach of Chernihiv region, Odradokamyanka of Kherson region, according to General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Vovchansk, Ambarne, Kamyanka and towards Novovasylivka, at South Slobozhansky(Kharkiv) direction. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Kupyansk and towards Novoplatonivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Hrekivka, Ridkodub, Karpivka, Kolodyazi, Torske and towards Shandryholove, Derylove, at Lyman direction. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Serebryanka, Hryhorivka, Pereyizne and towards Dronivka, at Sieversk direction. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Bondarne, Virolubivka, Stupochka and Bila Hora, at Kramatorsk direction. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Scherbynivka, Katerynivka, Rusyn Yar, Poltavka and towards Pleschiyivka, at Toretsk direction. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Shakhove, Novoekonomichne, Myrolubivka, Promin, Sukhyy Yar, Lysivka, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne and towards Myrnohrad, Rodynske, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Molodetske, Novopavlivka, Filiya, at Pokrovsk direction. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Zelenyy Hay, Tolstoy, Maliyivka, Shevchenko, Komyshuvakha and towards Filiya, Oleksandrohrad, Novoselivka, Sosnivka, at Novopavlivka direction. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports clashes yesterday near Stepnohirsk, at Orikhiv direction. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 7 Russian army assaults, at Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports RF forces are increasingly using civilian vehicles to transport weapons for UAF to the Dnipro, with RF UAV crews successfully identifying and thwarting such actions. (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ reports RF FPV drone strike on a minibus in Sloviansk. (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: MoD Russia shares photo messages on the progress of the special military operation as of 7 September 2025, providing a formal daily update on claimed successes. (MoD Russia, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Air Assets: Launching new waves of UAVs towards Chernihiv/Sumy, and conducting drone attacks in Zaporizhzhia (at least seven impacts), damaging civilian infrastructure, residential buildings, and injuring civilians. Renewed Shahed and ballistic threats towards Kyiv, with PVO active and KMW reporting ongoing danger. Lethal application of drones against civilian targets. RF MoD claims 31 UAF UAVs destroyed over RF regions in four hours. The explosion in Kharkiv and air danger regime in Lipetsk Oblast, along with flight restrictions at Volgograd airport (now lifted), show ongoing RF air defense and response capabilities. RF has demonstrated a capability for rapid, multi-vector, high-volume drone attacks, with new groups (5-12 Shahed-type UAVs) now targeting central Ukraine. Further reports of 3 additional Shaheds inbound to Kremenchuk and 3 towards Kropyvnytskyi confirm continued high-volume, multi-vector deep strike capabilities. RF demonstrates an ability to deploy "several hundred" Shahed-type UAVs simultaneously. Ballistic missile launches from Crimea targeting Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia Oblast confirm multi-domain strike capability. RF maintains a capability for overwhelming, massed, multi-domain (UAV and ballistic missile) deep strikes, as evidenced by the two fatalities and eleven injuries in Kyiv and multiple hits in Kryvyi Rih. UPDATED: RF has initiated a new, high-intensity cruise missile attack, with capabilities to launch multiple (3+) cruise missiles (identified as Iskander-K) across vast distances (Sumy to Pryluky, Beryslavskyi Raion to Bereznehuvate, Mykolaiv to Voznesensk, Poltava to Cherkasy, and targeting Kryvyi Rih and Kyiv). This demonstrates a sophisticated multi-vector, high-speed missile strike capability designed to overwhelm and bypass UAF air defenses. Temporary flight restrictions at Zhukovsky airport, RF, suggest capabilities for rapid response to threats or for conducting further air operations from this strategic airfield. The confirmation of two fatalities and additional damage in Kyiv indicates the lethality of these strikes. The damage to Odesa's Sports Palace further highlights targeting of civilian infrastructure. RF has demonstrated a continued capability for high-speed missile strikes on critical infrastructure in Kyiv (administrative building in Pecherskyi district) and sustained attacks on civilian targets in Kryvyi Rih. RF Ministry of Defense reports 69 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed or intercepted over RF regions and the Azov Sea overnight (ТАСС, ASTRA, HIGH CONFIDENCE). The reported strike on a bridge over the Dnipro in Kremenchuk (РБК-Україна) indicates RF's ongoing capability to target critical infrastructure with precision. RF capabilities for overwhelming long-range strike remain very high, with 805 UAVs and 13 missiles launched overnight against Ukraine (ASTRA, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦). This includes the use of KABs on Pokrovska community, Synelnykivskyi district (Сергій Лисак). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: RF launched 810 drones and 13 missiles overnight (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports continued enemy tactical aviation activity in the Eastern direction and KAB launches on Sumy Oblast and Donetsk region (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). The video from ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, captioned as "Video of the moment of impact on the bridge in Kremenchuk," strongly suggests a confirmed RF aerial strike on critical infrastructure (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports RF developed "Aurelia" modular special barriers to combat Ukrainian unmanned boats (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF sources (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) report three Shahed-type UAVs struck an equestrian club in Kyiv Oblast, resulting in animal fatalities but no human casualties (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares videos captioned "Прилеты ракет в Киеве", showing explosions in an urban environment at dusk with plumes of smoke (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора shares a photo of the Kryukiv bridge after a "Geran" strike, and a video captioned "Крюковский мосту через Днепр в Кременчуге после удара "Герани"" which appears to be unrelated fireworks footage (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares a similar video of nighttime explosions near a bridge, labeled "Прилеты ракет в Киеве," which also appears to be miscaptioned or unrelated to Kremenchuk (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports multiple groups of enemy UAVs from Sumy Oblast into Chernihiv Oblast. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Yuriy Ihnat confirms several Shahed-type UAVs entered Ukrainian airspace from Belarus overnight. (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast; assets engaged for shootdown. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA confirms Kremenchuk bridge damaged and movement suspended. (ASTRA, HIGH CONFIDENCE). UAF Air Force reports a new enemy UAV from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv Oblast (Brovary Raion). (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a group of Shaheds from the north moving towards Kyiv Oblast. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Kotsnews shares imagery of damage to a bridge structure captioned "Massive strike on Ukraine. Here's where they hit," confirming an aerial strike. (Kotsnews, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a Shahed drone entered Polish territory, flying towards Zamość, demonstrating a capability to project drone threats into NATO airspace. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of ballistic missile application from the north-eastern direction, with a high-speed target in Sumy Oblast, confirming ongoing missile launch capability. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Олександр Вілкул reports high-precision strikes hit a warehouse with food packages for Kryvyi Rih residents and IDPs, demonstrating targeting of humanitarian aid infrastructure. (Олександр Вілкул, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 provides video and photo messages of aftermath of night attack in Odesa, confirming RF's capability to cause widespread damage to urban environments. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims a "complex strike" on Dnipropetrovsk Airport, indicating continued targeting of air infrastructure. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Information Operations (IO): Actively promoting battlefield footage from Pokrovsk/Krasnolimansk/Konstantinovka to project strength and demoralize UAF. Uses state media (TASS, Colonelcassad) to issue warnings regarding Western aid (Taurus missiles) and to disseminate allegations of UAF strikes on ZNPP. Engaging in hybrid warfare against Moldova (Рыбарь). Amplifying anti-refugee/anti-interventionist sentiment in Europe. Spreading low morale narratives via POW interviews. Humanizing RF soldiers via cat imagery. Actively recruiting via "human traffickers" in Ukraine. Exploiting UAF domestic policy debates on mobilization. Colonelcassad continues to publish UAF loss statistics. Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) claims "Third party of eliminated Colombian mercenaries serving the narco-fuhrer today. Ukrainism and Banderaism kills." Colonelcassad also shares a video alleging financial incentives for Maidan protests. RF is capable of rapidly generating new, false narratives such as linking UAF to "human traffickers" and attempting to sow discord between Ukraine and its allies (e.g., Poland) by mocking alleged Polish-made drones. They are also capable of amplifying unverified claims of large-scale drone attacks (116 "Geraniums") to exaggerate their impact. НгП раZVедка (HIGH CONFIDENCE) explicitly states the mood is to "take and beat the record of the Yavoriv training ground for the simultaneous elimination of Khokhloryl." Операция Z (HIGH CONFIDENCE) amplifies Wall Street Journal reports on Putin's attrition strategy. RF demonstrates a sophisticated capability to create humanizing narratives (e.g., veteran volunteer video from Colonelcassad) for internal consumption, while simultaneously employing extremely aggressive and dehumanizing psychological warfare (e.g., НгП раZVедка's statements about children in basements) to terrorize the adversary. UPDATED: TASS shares video messages of Peskov emphasizing 'difficult dialogue' to settle the situation in Ukraine. TASS promotes airfield modernization in the Far East and agreements at the Eastern Economic Forum as signs of RF economic strength and stability. NEW: RF milbloggers (WarGonzo, Colonelcassad) are amplifying the alleged scale of the overnight drone and missile attacks (805+ UAVs, 13 missiles) to maximize psychological impact (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports search warrants executed for Yana Skokova, CEO of "Bikleaver Finance," for illegal money withdrawal to non-RF residents, an internal IO to project legal enforcement (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports Maria Zakharova stating Russia advocates reducing the digital divide and rejecting restrictions on technology access, likely an IO to counter Western sanctions/tech controls (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns uses derogatory language about Fico and Zelensky, confirming the "Druzhba" oil pipeline attack and lamenting that "nothing is shy" (Alex Parker Returns, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Старше Эдды shares promotional images of knives, possibly for morale or fundraising for military personnel (Старше Эдды, Alex Parker Returns, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора is fundraising for assault forces in Sumy direction, emphasizing the need for Mavic drones to save lives and push back the enemy (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА questions "What is the enemy preparing in the Black Sea?" with an image of a Russian warship (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad is fundraising for motorized infantry, volunteer detachments, and air defense fighters, requesting body armor, helmets, and medicine, demonstrating ongoing efforts to equip personnel and maintain morale (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares a video of additional strike aftermath in Kyiv (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Russian MoD shares video of EW units in Kharkov direction overwhelming enemy reconnaissance (MoD Russia, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash na Donbasse reports a civilian traffic accident in the Donbas region (Mash на Донбассе, HIGH CONFIDENCE). «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» reports an AI-generated scam targeting Moscow schoolchildren for Akhmat special forces (Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат», HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad reports fraud related to military contract payments in Leningrad Oblast (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of FSB detaining a 15-year-old for railway arson in Krasnodar Krai, framing it as a successful counter-sabotage operation (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Janus Putkonen (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) amplifies the narrative of a "night of a thousand drones, missiles, and air bombs in Ukraine" (Janus Putkonen, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS issues a warning about fraudulent calls not originating from a "+7" code, indicating internal security/scam awareness IO (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) shares videos about "Chicago against Trump's 'war rebranding'," focusing on civilian protests and immigration issues in the US, likely for internal RF consumption to portray Western societal divisions (Операция Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports on Malysheva's statement about Merz needing to feel responsibility for his words on conflict with Russia, an IO targeting Western politicians (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kadyrov_95 shares a video celebrating a birthday within his family, an IO to project normalcy and family values (Kadyrov_95, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы shares images of "Tasty - and that's it" (Russian McDonald's replacement) glasses breaking during washing, a domestic consumer IO (Новости Москвы, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора shares a video of Rybar analyst Denis Shchukin visiting Crimea, likely an IO to promote pro-Russian analysis and showcase Crimea (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS and Alex Parker Returns share videos of a large religious procession in Moscow, framed as a display of Russian unity and strength, with Alex Parker Returns ominously stating "Russians are coming! ... There will be pogroms. Good will prevail!" (ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Alex Parker Returns posts a photo with the caption "Little," possibly mocking the reported damage or casualties. (Alex Parker Returns, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Operatsiya Z (Voenkory Russkoi Vesny) reports the strike on Druzhba oil pipeline, framing it as a "cynical spit in the face of Europe" (Операция Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad reports on burning buildings after night arrivals in Dobropillia (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Рыбарь (Rybar) posts an image with the caption "The Art of Greek Diplomacy," which may be a critical or satirical comment on international relations, part of their broader IO. (Рыбарь, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS shares a video of Peskov discussing Putin's daily sports routine, likely to project a positive image of Putin's leadership. (ТАСС, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Новости Москвы shares a video of a large religious procession in Moscow, emphasizing "thousands of believers," likely to project religious unity and strength. (Новости Москвы, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares a video celebrating the 11th anniversary of the Wagner PMC's successful storming of Lugansk airport, framed as a significant military victory, reinforcing RF narratives of historical military prowess. (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). WarGonzo shares photo messages celebrating the 246th anniversary of Gorlovka, calling it a "City of military glory and labor valor," which is a clear IO effort to boost morale and solidify control in occupied territories. (WarGonzo, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Police of Khabarovsk Krai shares an animated video providing internet safety advice, likely an internal IO effort to address cyber threats and scams, which could also be used to portray internal stability. (Полиция Хабаровского края, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad shares an image captioned "Тарана в действии" (Taran in action), likely referencing ramming tactics or a military maneuver, intended to show military prowess. (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports military analyst Igor Korotchenko's opinion that RF forces will continue to advance, and UAF will retreat, with UK's transfer of frozen assets profits not changing the situation, a clear IO to diminish the impact of Western aid. (ТАСС, HIGH CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia shares photo messages indicating the completion of the "Interaction 2025" joint exercise with CSTO CRRF in Belarus, aimed at projecting military strength and alliances. (MoD Russia, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) shares a video of Slovak Prime Minister discussing China's global influence, likely to portray perceived Western failures and promote alternative alliances. (Операция Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: TASS broadcasts a video of a large Moscow religious procession, projecting internal unity and strength. (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Kotsnews shares imagery of damaged locations, captioned "Massive strike on Ukraine. Here's where they hit," amplifying RF strike claims. (Kotsnews, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) amplifies imagery captioned "Ukraine is boiling: thousands in the streets against Zelensky's regime," showing civilian protests. (Операция Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports on tightening alcohol sales restrictions across RF regions. (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ASTRA reports a Kamchatka resident filed a police report over a gas station refusing to sell him 60 liters of gasoline, indicating domestic frustration and fuel shortages. (ASTRA, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Mash на Донбассе reports a missing 9-year-old girl, an IO likely aimed at portraying civilian suffering. (Mash на Донбассе, HIGH CONFIDENCE). НгП раZVедка shares photo messages captioned "Massive strike on Ukraine's military infrastructure," amplifying damage claims. (НгП раZVедка, HIGH CONFIDENCE). МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares video messages captioned "Our wounded are left on the battlefield," featuring women appealing for information on mobilized soldiers, possibly indicating RF internal morale issues and a UAF IO opportunity. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: MoD Russia shares photo messages on the progress of the special military operation as of 7 September 2025, providing a formal daily update on claimed successes. (MoD Russia, HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports RF forces are increasingly using civilian vehicles to transport weapons for UAF to the Dnipro, with RF UAV crews successfully identifying and thwarting such actions, an IO message highlighting RF capabilities. (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Два майора shares videos of "Frontline Armor" donations to the "VBRONE31" unit, showcasing their ability to organize and distribute logistical support. (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора promotes ordering "Dva Mayora" chevrons, indicating the continued use of social media for fundraising and fostering unit identity. (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Два майора shares a video summarizing "How I spent the summer. Part three. August," detailing various targets engaged and destroyed by drones, showcasing RF's drone operational capabilities and a propaganda effort to highlight their effectiveness. (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: РБК-Україна reports on world reactions to the "most massive RF strike on Ukraine," highlighting the international cognitive domain. (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts fundraising calls ("Збір, народ!"). (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

• Ukrainian force posture and readiness: UAF maintains a defensive posture against RF ground assaults on Pokrovsk, Avdiivka, and Krasnolimansk. Air defense units are on high alert across multiple regions (Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Lutsk, Rivne Oblast, Poltava Oblast, Khmelnytskyi Oblast) due to sustained RF drone and missile threats. UAF PVO is actively engaging targets, indicating continued operational readiness. UAF leadership (General Staff, Commander-in-Chief Syrsky) is actively managing operations in active combat zones (Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Siverskyi directions). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Special forces from Ukraine's border service are active in Vovchansk, indicating readiness for border defense. (TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Сергій Лисак (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)) shares a motivational video celebrating Ukrainian Military Intelligence Day, featuring special forces in training (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ shares a similar video from Commander-in-Chief Syrsky, congratulating military intelligence on their day and showcasing training (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE). The 2nd Mountain Assault Battalion of the 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade is actively engaged near Pyatykhatky. (✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of combat operations in the Eastern direction. (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: UAF Zaporizhzhia OVA posts photo messages detailing the 'results of the week' on the Zaporizhzhia front, including damaged buildings and ongoing cleanup efforts, confirming active recovery and defensive posture. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports on the situation in the responsibility zones of subordinated military units as of 070900Z SEP 25, indicating active operations in the Kharkiv axis. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Liveuamap Source reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 7 Russian army assaults at Kursk and North Slobozhansky(Sumy) direction. (Liveuamap Source, HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна shares video messages of Zelenskyy congratulating GUR soldiers on Military Intelligence Day, boosting morale and publicizing intelligence efforts. (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares photo messages congratulating on Military Intelligence Day. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares video messages celebrating Military Intelligence Day, highlighting UAF capabilities. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ promotes a new mini-album "GUR Works" with songs by intelligence officers to boost morale and highlight GUR activities. (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE).

• Recent tactical successes or setbacks:

  • Successes:
    • UAF PVO successfully engaged air targets in Rivne Oblast and Khmelnytskyi Oblast overnight. (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF units on the Pokrovsk direction repelled approximately 350 RF attacks over the past week, demonstrating strong defensive capabilities against a major RF offensive grouping. (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Confirmed successful UAF deep strike on Ilsky Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai, causing a fire to a technological unit. (ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF PVO shot down 29 UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast during the night. (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF PVO destroyed 10 enemy UAVs over Cherkasy region overnight. (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF Air Force shot down/suppressed 751 enemy targets overnight, including 747 drones and 4 Iskander-K cruise missiles. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • STERNENKO claims over 40 RF drones were shot down this night by "drone interceptors." (STERNENKO, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • UAF 14th SBS Regiment successfully attacked the "Druzhba" oil pipeline's linear production and dispatch station "8-N" in Naytopovichi, Bryansk Oblast. (Оперативний ЗСУ, Alex Parker Returns, STERNENKO, РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Воин DV video shows UAF drone destroying two M113 APCs. (Воин DV, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • NEW: UAF General Staff (Генштаб підтвердив ураження важливих об'єктів рф) confirms strikes on important RF objects (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • NEW: Сили оборони Півдня України reports 1 cruise missile and 45 Shahed-136/131 UAVs destroyed in the operational zone of the "South" grouping (Сили оборони Півдня України, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • NEW: UAF gained control over 26 sq. km of Ukrainian land in two directions. (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • NEW: A UAF soldier successfully impersonated an RF soldier and eliminated two occupiers. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Setbacks:
    • RF claims liberation of 'Khoroshe' in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (RF MoD, TASS, Colonelcassad, Операция Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE). This represents a localized territorial loss.
    • One UAF soldier is depicted alone and likely deceased in a devastated wooded area on the Pokrovsk direction, indicating personnel losses during intense combat. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Multiple groups of enemy UAVs are operating in Chernihiv Oblast. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • A confirmed RF FPV drone strike on a minibus in Sloviansk. (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Destruction of over 60,000 food supply packages in Kryvyi Rih due to high-precision strikes, significantly impacting humanitarian aid. (Олександр Вілкул, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Damage to residential buildings and infrastructure in Odesa due to night attack. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • A Russian drone strike hit a residential five-story building in Sumy. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
    • Confirmed damage to the Kremenchuk bridge and suspension of movement, impacting a critical logistical artery. (Kotsnews, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE).

• Resource requirements and constraints:

  • Air Defense Systems and Munitions: The sustained high volume of RF drone and missile attacks (810 drones and 13 missiles overnight) continues to stress UAF air defense systems and deplete munitions. The long-term threat from RF's estimated 2700 Shahed/month production capacity necessitates urgent replenishment and expansion of air defense capabilities, especially mobile short-range systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Humanitarian Aid & Logistics: The destruction of 60,000 food packages in Kryvyi Rih and damage to residential buildings in Sumy and Odesa highlight an urgent need for humanitarian aid, shelter, and medical supplies for affected civilians and IDPs. The Polish farmer blockade at Medyka border crossing continues to impede critical supplies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • ISR Capabilities: While UAF has achieved tactical ISR successes, the critical intelligence gap regarding the precise composition and operational timeline of RF forces on the Pokrovsk axis indicates an ongoing need for advanced ISR assets and increased collection efforts to provide timely warning and enable preemptive strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Tactical Mobility & Equipment: Ongoing fundraising for vehicles for SSO fighters and Boker knives indicates specific equipment requirements for special operations and frontline units. (Zvиздец Мангусту, STERNENKO, HIGH CONFIDENCE).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

4.1. Propaganda and disinformation campaigns

• RF Propaganda - Internal Cohesion & Strength (HIGH CONFIDENCE):
  • Religious Unity: RF state media (TASS, Военкор Котенок, Kotsnews) extensively feature a large Moscow religious procession, framing it as a display of "spiritual unity" and "Russian soul." This aims to bolster domestic morale and portray a unified, devout populace.
  • Normalized Life/Soft Power: Mash на Донбассе's video of swans ("Grace, elegance, and pure concentrated rage... better to admire this dangerous beauty from the Donetsk Sea from afar") serves as a subtle attempt to normalize life in occupied territories and project a sense of peaceful natural beauty, distracting from the conflict.
  • Economic Stability/Future Outlook: TASS reports on airfield modernization in the Far East and agreements at the Eastern Economic Forum, designed to project an image of RF economic strength and stability.
  • Leadership Image: TASS highlighting Peskov discussing Putin's daily sports routine aims to project a positive image of Putin's vigor and leadership.
  • Military Prowess & Historical Revisionism: Colonelcassad's celebration of the 11th anniversary of the Wagner PMC's storming of Lugansk airport reinforces narratives of RF military prowess and historical victories. WarGonzo celebrates the 246th anniversary of Gorlovka as a "City of military glory and labor valor," legitimizing control over occupied territories.
  • Domestic Order/Security: TASS reports search warrants for a CEO for illegal money withdrawal, and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of FSB detaining a 15-year-old for railway arson, both aim to project strong internal law enforcement and stability.
• RF Propaganda - External Projection/Anti-Ukrainian & Anti-Western Narratives (HIGH CONFIDENCE):
  • Amplifying Strike Damage: RF milbloggers (Kotsnews, НгП раZVедка, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА) are amplifying imagery of damaged Ukrainian locations, often with captions like "Massive strike on Ukraine," to maximize psychological impact and project military success. Colonelcassad shares a video of a "Geranium" impact in Zaporizhzhia.
  • Delegitimizing Ukrainian State & Military: RF continues to spread narratives of Ukrainian internal instability (Операция Z imagery of "thousands in the streets against Zelensky's regime"). RF milbloggers continue to claim the elimination of "Colombian mercenaries." TASS reports RF forces successfully intercepting UAF weapons transport in civilian vehicles to the Dnipro, framing UAF as exploiting civilians.
  • Exaggerating Capabilities & Successes: RF milbloggers (Janus Putkonen, WarGonzo, Colonelcassad) are amplifying the alleged scale of the overnight drone and missile attacks ("night of a thousand drones") to maximize psychological impact and create a sense of overwhelming RF power. TASS claims an RF UAV operator destroyed three UAF "Baba Yaga" hexacopters at launch in Kherson, highlighting tactical successes.
  • Exploiting Western Divisions/Criticism: TASS reports on Malysheva's statement regarding Merz, targeting Western politicians. Операция Z shares Slovak PM's discussion on China, hinting at alternative alliances or perceived Western failures.
  • Cynical Framing of UAF Deep Strikes: Операция Z frames the Druzhba oil pipeline attack as a "cynical spit in the face of Europe," aiming to alienate Ukraine from its European partners.
  • Hybrid Warfare / Recruitment: RF continues cross-border hybrid warfare, as observed in Chernihiv with leaflet drops (from previous SITREP).
  • Dehumanizing Rhetoric: НгП раZVедка's explicit desire to "take and beat the record of the Yavoriv training ground for the simultaneous elimination of Khokhloryl" (reported previously, but contextually relevant) demonstrates continued dehumanizing language to incite hatred.
• UAF Counter-Propaganda and Morale Operations (HIGH CONFIDENCE):
  • Celebrating Achievements & Resilience: UAF (РБК-Україна, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦) celebrates Military Intelligence Day, highlighting professionalism and resolve.
  • Highlighting RF Atrocities: UAF IO actively reports on civilian casualties, the destruction of food aid (Kryvyi Rih), and residential damage (Sumy, Odesa, Kyiv), to garner international sympathy and highlight RF war crimes. Координаційний штаб highlights torture in Russian captivity.
  • Boosting Morale: STERNENKO's podcast with a recently returned POW, Volodymyr Mykolaienko, aims to uplift morale and demonstrate resilience. Оперативний ЗСУ promoting a GUR mini-album serves a similar purpose.
  • Promoting Domestic Capabilities: Сергій Лисак (🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА)) shares a video celebrating Entrepreneurship Day, emphasizing "Made in Ukraine" products to project self-sufficiency and economic resilience.
  • Critiquing RF Domestic Issues: Шеф Hayabusa mocks Russian fuel prices to highlight internal RF problems and undermine their image of stability.

4.2. Public sentiment and morale factors

• Ukrainian Public Sentiment (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE):
  • Resilience under Pressure: Despite severe deep strikes causing fatalities, injuries, and infrastructure damage in major cities (Kyiv, Kremenchuk, Sumy, Odesa, Kryvyi Rih), there are signs of continued resilience (UAF's continued defense, celebration of GUR Day). The KMVA's clarification on Kyiv fatalities might aim to manage public panic.
  • Heightened Vigilance: Frequent air raid alerts and reports of new UAV groups indicate a population living under constant threat, requiring sustained vigilance. The "All Clear" by the Air Force provides temporary relief but the underlying anxiety remains.
  • Humanitarian Concerns: The destruction of food aid in Kryvyi Rih and damage to residential areas in Sumy and Odesa will lead to increased humanitarian needs and public distress.
  • Frustration with Western Delays: While not explicitly stated in new messages, the continued call for Western aid suggests underlying frustration regarding the pace and volume of international support for air defense.
• Russian Public Sentiment (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE):
  • Mobilization Potential: UAF intelligence assessment (from previous SITREP) suggests RF capable of another mobilization, implying internal public "pain" but also compliance.
  • Fuel Shortages/Domestic Frustrations: Reports of a Kamchatka resident unable to buy gasoline indicate local frustrations, though it's unclear how widespread this is.
  • State-Sanctioned Religious Unity: The large Moscow religious procession, heavily amplified by state media, attempts to project a unified, patriotic, and religiously-sanctioned public sentiment. The tightening of alcohol sales could be linked to social control and discipline efforts.
  • Information Control: The promotion of VPN services for messaging apps in RF suggests ongoing information control efforts by the state and public attempts to circumvent them.
• International Public Sentiment (LOW CONFIDENCE, ANALYTICAL JUDGMENT):
  • Growing Concerns over Escalation: The reported Shahed drone entering Polish airspace is a significant incident that will likely heighten international concern and calls for de-escalation, especially from NATO allies.
  • Humanitarian Outcry: The mounting civilian casualties and destruction of humanitarian aid in Ukraine will likely generate renewed international condemnation and calls for increased aid.
  • Continued Divisions: RF's sustained IO efforts to sow discord between Ukraine and its allies, and within Western nations themselves, likely continue to exploit existing political fault lines.

4.3. International support and diplomatic developments

• Support for Ukraine (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE):
  • Military Aid: No direct new military aid announcements in this update, but UAF continues to call for support and highlights its successes in deep strikes, implicitly seeking continued and enhanced aid.
  • Diplomatic Pressure: World reactions to the "most massive RF strike on Ukraine" (РБК-Україна) likely include renewed calls for RF accountability and increased support for Ukraine.
  • International Presence: The previous report of a multinational force (MNF-U) staff being formed in Kyiv (Poddubny |Z|О|V| edition, from previous SITREP) indicates a continued commitment to post-conflict assistance and potentially enhanced military advisory roles.
• Support for Russia (LOW CONFIDENCE):
  • CSTO Exercises: The completion of "Interaction 2025" CSTO CRRF exercises in Belarus (MoD Russia) projects an image of strong alliances for RF, though their direct combat support value in Ukraine is limited.
  • Economic Agreements: 358 agreements worth 6.058 trillion rubles at the Eastern Economic Forum in 2025 (TASS) aim to show strong economic partnerships and mitigate the impact of Western sanctions.
• Diplomatic Developments / Hybrid Diplomacy (HIGH CONFIDENCE):
  • Polish Airspace Violation (CRITICAL): The reported Shahed drone entering Polish territory is a serious violation of NATO airspace, likely leading to urgent diplomatic discussions between Poland, Ukraine, and NATO. This could trigger Article 4 consultations depending on the severity and intent assessment.
  • RF Framing of Dialogue: Peskov's emphasis on "difficult dialogue" to settle the conflict, while claiming "complete support" for peace initiatives, is a consistent RF diplomatic posture aiming to appear reasonable while dictating terms.
  • Global Political Shifts: TASS reports Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba's resignation, an event that could influence international relations and is noted by RF to highlight global political fluidity.
  • Countering Western Restrictions: Maria Zakharova's statement advocating for reducing the digital divide and rejecting tech restrictions is a diplomatic message aimed at undermining Western sanctions and tech controls.
  • Exploiting Western Internal Politics: RF continues to use IO to portray Western societal divisions (e.g., "Chicago against Trump's 'war rebranding'").

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most likely enemy courses of action (MLCOA)

• MLCOA 1 (Ground Offensive - Pokrovsk Axis): RF will continue to concentrate forces and initiate a major ground offensive aimed at a "decisive breakthrough" on the Pokrovsk axis. This will be characterized by sustained attritional assaults, heavy artillery and air support (including KABs), and attempts to fix UAF reserves. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Indicators: Continued high-volume RF ground assaults (repelling 350 attacks in a week on this axis indicates strong and persistent pressure), increased ISR on the axis, and tactical claims of advances in adjacent areas (e.g., Kupyansk direction).
• MLCOA 2 (Massed Deep Strikes): RF will maintain a very high tempo of multi-domain deep strikes using Shahed-type UAVs, ballistic missiles (Iskander-K), and cruise missiles. Primary targets will remain critical infrastructure (energy, transport, military-industrial complex), C2 nodes, logistics hubs, and urban centers to degrade Ukrainian will to fight and tie up air defense assets. We anticipate further strikes on logistics hubs such as Kremenchuk and Odesa, and continued indiscriminate strikes on urban residential areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Indicators: Continued reporting of large numbers of inbound UAVs and missiles, previous success in striking critical infrastructure (Kremenchuk bridge, Kryvyi Rih food warehouse), and explicit RF milblogger intent to "beat the record" of casualties.
• MLCOA 3 (Aggressive Information Warfare): RF will continue and escalate its multi-pronged information warfare campaign. This will include amplifying alleged territorial gains, portraying UAF as collapsing, spreading highly inflammatory narratives (e.g., child trafficking, linking UAF to "human traffickers"), exploiting Western political divisions, and attempting to destabilize Ukrainian morale and international support. The Polish airspace violation will be framed to sow discord between NATO and Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Indicators: Consistent messaging across RF state media and milbloggers, rapid generation of new narratives, and immediate exploitation of incidents (e.g., Polish drone entry).

5.2. Most dangerous enemy courses of action (MDCOA)

• MDCOA 1 (Breakthrough on Pokrovsk and Exploitation): RF achieves a decisive breakthrough on the Pokrovsk axis, leading to the collapse of a significant section of UAF defenses. This could enable rapid exploitation of the breach by RF mechanized forces, leading to deeper territorial gains and potential encirclement of UAF forces. This would severely impact UAF operational mobility and force a large-scale defensive redeployment. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
  • Indicators: Sudden, rapid RF advances with limited UAF resistance, large-scale RF armored and mechanized force commitment, and reports of UAF units being cut off or forced to retreat.
• MDCOA 2 (Tactical Nuclear/Chemical Incident - False Flag): RF stages a false-flag chemical or tactical nuclear incident, potentially in or around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) or a densely populated urban area, and blames Ukraine. This would be designed to achieve a major political or psychological objective, escalate the conflict to a new level, and force a dramatic international response, potentially leading to a negotiated settlement on RF terms or a direct confrontation with NATO. (LOW CONFIDENCE, but high impact)
  • Indicators: Increased RF rhetoric about "dirty bombs" or "Ukrainian WMDs," pre-positioning of specialized units/equipment, and heightened RF activity around ZNPP.
• MDCOA 3 (Hybrid Operation against NATO Member): Following the Polish airspace violation, RF conducts a more aggressive and overt hybrid operation against a NATO member state (e.g., sustained cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure, direct sabotage by proxies, or further deliberate airspace violations with armed UAVs). This aims to test NATO's Article 5 resolve, create divisions within the alliance, and distract from operations in Ukraine. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
  • Indicators: Increased cyber activity targeting NATO infrastructure, documented sabotage in NATO countries linked to RF, and repeated, deliberate incursions into NATO airspace.

5.3. Timeline estimates and decision points

• Next 24-48 Hours:
  • Pokrovsk Offensive: Expect intense shaping operations for the Pokrovsk offensive to continue. A full-scale ground assault is highly probable within this timeframe, possibly coinciding with continued massed deep strikes. (Decision Point: Preemptive long-range strikes on RF assembly areas/logistics on Pokrovsk axis).
  • Deep Strikes: Continued multi-domain deep strikes at very high intensity against Kyiv, Dnipro, Odesa, and other critical infrastructure. Focus likely on urban centers to maximize psychological impact and civilian casualties. (Decision Point: Prioritize additional air defense assets and humanitarian aid to heavily targeted cities).
  • Information Environment: RF will continue to amplify successes and derogatory narratives. UAF must respond immediately to counter child trafficking allegations and capitalize on the Polish airspace violation. (Decision Point: Immediate international counter-IO campaign activation).
• Next 72-96 Hours:
  • Sustained Pressure: Even if initial Pokrovsk assaults are repelled, RF will maintain pressure, leveraging its numerical superiority and drone/KAB capabilities. The scale of civilian suffering will likely increase.
  • International Reaction to Polish Incident: NATO's response to the Polish airspace violation will become clearer, potentially leading to stronger condemnation or specific countermeasures.
• Decision Points for UAF:
  • Asset Prioritization: Rapidly re-allocate air defense assets to counter the evolving deep strike threat, particularly the highly mobile Shahed UAVs and cruise missiles.
  • Logistical Contingencies: Activate alternative logistical routes and secure humanitarian aid supplies in response to the Polish border blockade and damage to critical infrastructure.
  • Reinforcement Strategy: Strategically deploy and rotate reserves to key defensive sectors, especially Pokrovsk, to prevent breakthroughs and maintain defensive integrity.

INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

1. CRITICAL: RF Pokrovsk Offensive - Detailed ORBAT and Timeline: What are the precise Order of Battle (ORBAT), command structure, and detailed offensive plan for the RF force concentration on the Pokrovsk axis? When is the projected D-Day for the full-scale assault? (Collection Requirement: Enhanced IMINT/SIGINT targeting of RF command posts, logistics nodes, and assembly areas. HUMINT from frontline sectors.)
2. CRITICAL: RF Shahed Production & Supply Chain: Can the estimated 2700 Shaheds/month production rate be definitively confirmed and broken down by production facility? What are the specific foreign components and supply chains enabling this production? (Collection Requirement: Industrial espionage, cyber intelligence, and open-source intelligence on RF and Iranian industrial sectors.)
3. HIGH: Kremenchuk Bridge Damage Assessment & Operational Impact: What is the precise extent of the damage to the Kremenchuk bridge and the estimated timeline for repairs or alternative solutions? What is the immediate and projected impact on UAF logistics and civilian movement? (Collection Requirement: Overhead imagery, local reporting, and analysis of traffic flow changes.)
4. HIGH: Polish Airspace Violation - Intent and Origin: What is the definitive NATO/Polish assessment of the intent behind the Shahed drone entering Polish territory? Was it a deliberate provocation, a navigation error, or a technical malfunction? What was the exact launch location? (Collection Requirement: Liaison with NATO/Polish intelligence, forensic analysis of drone debris.)
5. MEDIUM: RF Ground Operations - Khoroshe & Kupyansk Details: Independent verification of RF claims regarding the liberation of 'Khoroshe' and significant advances in Kupyansk. What were the specific UAF units involved, and what were the circumstances of any withdrawal or engagement? (Collection Requirement: Local HUMINT, UAF tactical reports, cross-verification with independent satellite imagery.)
6. MEDIUM: Impact on Kryvyi Rih Food Security: What is the estimated humanitarian impact of the destruction of 60,000 food packages in Kryvyi Rih on local residents and IDPs? What immediate relief efforts are required? (Collection Requirement: Humanitarian assessments, local government reports.)
7. PERSISTING: RF Internal Mobilization: Further intelligence on the likelihood, scale, and timeline of another RF mobilization, and the internal political and social ramifications. (Collection Requirement: HUMINT, SIGINT on Russian domestic discourse, economic indicators.)

RECOMMENDATIONS

1. IMMEDIATE - Enhance Air Defense for Central Ukraine: Immediately redeploy mobile air defense assets, particularly short-range systems capable of intercepting Shahed-type UAVs, to protect critical infrastructure and urban centers in Poltava, Kirovohrad, and Kyiv Oblasts. Prioritize the Kremenchuk area for enhanced coverage given the bridge damage.
2. IMMEDIATE - Diplomatic Action on Polish Border: Engage Polish authorities at the highest level to urgently resolve the Medyka border blockade. Stress the critical humanitarian and military impact on Ukraine and the broader security implications for European stability.
3. OPERATIONAL - Interdict Pokrovsk Offensive Prep: Prioritize long-range precision fires (e.g., HIMARS/ATACMS if available) against identified RF troop concentrations, logistics nodes, and command posts supporting the Pokrovsk offensive. Disrupt the enemy's ability to mass forces and sustain their advance.
4. OPERATIONAL - Counter RF Disinformation on Child Trafficking: Launch a proactive and robust international counter-information campaign to debunk RF's child trafficking allegations. Provide verifiable facts and expose the sources as known disinformation actors to protect Ukraine's reputation and international support.
5. TACTICAL - Strengthen Air Reconnaissance on Chernihiv Axis: Increase UAV and ground ISR on the Chernihiv axis, especially southwest, to monitor reported enemy UAV groups and pre-empt further drone incursions. Develop and deploy counter-drone measures where feasible.
6. HUMANITARIAN - Rapid Response for Kryvyi Rih and Sumy: Coordinate with international and local humanitarian organizations to expedite delivery of food aid and other essential supplies to Kryvyi Rih following the warehouse destruction. Provide emergency housing and medical assistance for residents affected by drone strikes in Sumy and Odesa.
7. LONG-TERM - Accelerate Domestic Air Defense Production & Western Procurement: Intensify efforts to achieve 60% self-sufficiency in air defense production and press Western partners for expedited delivery of advanced air defense systems and munitions to counter RF's sustained high-volume air campaign.

//END REPORT//