Archived operational intelligence briefing
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: Russian Federation (RF) forces continue multi-axis ground offensives, with primary effort on the Pokrovsk axis. Deep strikes persist on Ukrainian energy, industrial, and civilian infrastructure, with a significant increase in volume and geographic spread of Shahed-type UAV and ballistic/cruise missile attacks. Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, Kremenchuk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro and Odesa have been heavily targeted. Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) maintain defensive posture, conduct counter-drone operations, and execute deep strikes into RF territory. RF continues to advance, claiming capture of "New World" settlement and Shandryholove. Renewed drone activity targeted Chernihiv, Sumy, Kyiv, and Kharkiv, with Zaporizhzhia experiencing significant damage to civilian infrastructure and a marked increase in civilian casualties. A new RF drone has been reported near Lutsk, and an explosion in Kharkiv. Air raid alerts are active in Lipetsk Oblast and other RF regions. RF claims 31 UAF UAVs destroyed over its territory in four hours. Volgograd airport flight restrictions were lifted. RF IO intensifies with new claims of "Colombian mercenaries" eliminated and further attempts to destabilize Ukrainian public sentiment regarding Maidan. UAF intelligence assesses RF capable of another mobilization, despite internal pain. Explosions reported in Dnipro. RF claims a breakthrough at Kupyansk, while RF state media amplifies narratives of Western warmongering and RF peace initiatives. RF command structure changes include two artillery regiments receiving 'Guards' status. RF milbloggers are claiming a "massive raid" of 116 "Geraniums" across Ukraine, including Kyiv. RF propaganda is also attempting to link UAF to "human traffickers" in Zaporizhzhia and is mocking Polish-made drones. RF deep strike activity initiated towards Kirovohrad Oblast (Znamianka) and Poltava Oblast (Svitlovodsk/Kremenchuk), with Kremenchuk confirmed under attack by a large drone group (12 Shahed-type UAVs), and additional 3 Shahed-type UAVs confirmed inbound to Kremenchuk and 3 Shahed-type UAVs towards Kropyvnytskyi. RF milbloggers are expressing intentions to exceed previous casualty records with massed strikes, and are amplifying Wall Street Journal reports on Putin's attrition strategy. TASS claims RF advances southeast of Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast, despite UAF pressure. Explosions have been reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including in the Shevchenkivskyi district of Zaporizhzhia city. RF milbloggers are claiming significant advances in Kupyansk, expecting "interesting news" by morning. Air raid alerts were active in Volyn Oblast due to a Shahed-type UAV. Further Shahed-type UAVs were reported inbound to Starokostiantyniv (Khmelnytskyi Oblast) and Znamianka (Kirovohrad Oblast), and Reshetylivka (Poltava Oblast) was under attack. One Shahed-type UAV was also reported over Dnipro. Temporary flight restrictions were introduced at Nizhny Novgorod airport (RF) and at Zhukovsky airport (RF). RF milbloggers are expressing dismissive attitudes towards Kremenchuk, despite ongoing strikes, and are using dehumanizing language related to sheltering children in basements. RF milbloggers report "several hundred" Shahed-type UAVs ("Khryakonaklonitely") in Ukrainian airspace, with more appearing. TASS reports RF forces are gradually withdrawing from Serebryanka (DNR) and consolidating positions outside the settlement, pushing UAF out of nearby Dronovka. This indicates localized RF repositioning and offensive action in the Donetsk axis. A Shahed-type UAV was reported towards Kovel (Volyn Oblast), and another towards Pivdenne/Koblevo (Odesa Oblast). Two Shahed-type UAVs were reported inbound to Kryvyi Rih. Multiple explosions are reported in Kyiv, with burning vehicles on a parking lot in Svyatoshynskyi district due to RF attack. Ballistic missile launches from Crimea were reported targeting Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Three Shahed-type UAVs were over Kyiv, and two were approaching Zaporizhzhia from the north. An RF milblogger shares a video of an alleged UAF soldier stating his intention to go abroad, indicating continued RF information operations targeting UAF morale and mobilization. Explosions are reported in Kryvyi Rih. RF deep strikes are impacting residential multi-story buildings in Kyiv's Svyatoshynskyi district, causing fires. Kremenchuk is experiencing dozens of explosions, leading to widespread power outages in parts of the city. RF President Putin is presented with latest engine production by Rostec in Samara, emphasizing domestic military-industrial capabilities. Three individuals have died in an explosion in a tunnel in Khabarovsk Krai, RF. RF has launched additional high-speed targets towards Kryvyi Rih. Renewed explosions are confirmed in Zaporizhzhia, targeting an enterprise. RF Shahed-type UAVs are attacking Odesa, with explosions confirmed, and a significant new group of 8 UAVs reported targeting Usatove/Odesa/Chornomorsk. Additional 11 Shahed-type UAVs from Kharkiv Oblast are inbound towards Samar/Dnipro. In Kyiv's Svyatoshynskyi district, another 9-story building is ablaze, and a warehouse fire is reported. In Kyiv's Darnitskyi district, a 4-story building has partial third-floor destruction. In Kyiv, one person has died in Svyatoshynskyi district, and an elderly woman has died in an underground shelter in Darnitskyi district, bringing total fatalities to two. The number of injured in Kyiv has risen to eleven. All remaining Shahed-type UAVs targeting Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih, and Dnipro have been negated (shot down or passed). TASS reports that a settlement of the Ukrainian conflict is approaching due to dialogue between US and Russian presidents (Kirill Dmitriev), which is an RF IO message. TASS also reports that director Zhora Kryzhovnikov is on Ukraine's Myrotvorets website, an RF IO message of victimhood. UPDATED: Air raid alerts activated in Kyiv and Poltava Oblast due to multiple inbound cruise missiles. Cruise missiles are observed over Sumy Oblast (towards Pryluky), Beryslavskyi Raion (towards Bereznehuvate), Mykolaiv Oblast (towards Voznesensk), and are approaching Kryvyi Rih and Kyiv. Explosions reported in Kryvyi Rih from Iskander-K missiles. RF IO emphasizes the need for 'difficult dialogue' to settle the situation in Ukraine. Two fatalities (one young woman, one one-year-old child) confirmed in Kyiv's Svyatoshynskyi district from the current missile attack (Klichko). Another explosion reported in Odesa. Some power outages in Kyiv after missile attacks. RF claims destruction of a UAF 2S3 "Akatsiya" SPG in Konstantinivka via FPV drones (Colonelcassad). TASS reports RF plans to modernize 29 airfields in the Far East with 158 billion rubles. TASS also reports Russian universities may drop "Social Studies" from ЕГЭ in favor of "History." TASS reports 358 agreements worth 6.058 trillion rubles signed at the Eastern Economic Forum in 2025. UAF confirms damage to a sports palace in Odesa.
NEW INTELLIGENCE:
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
Air Operations: Conditions remain highly favorable for RF air operations, evidenced by new drone groups towards Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv, and intense drone activity in Zaporizhzhia, leading to multiple impacts and increased casualties. The alleged UAF drone strike on ZNPP training center (TASS) also indicates clear conditions for drone operations. RF fundraising for mobile PVO in Rostov suggests conditions for UAF deep strikes into RF territory are also favorable. UAF drone strikes on Bryansk and Belgorod also confirm favorable conditions for UAF air operations. The renewed air alert in Kyiv and threat of ballistic weapons confirm continued clear conditions for RF deep strikes. The subsequent "all clear" for Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia suggests immediate threats were neutralized or passed, however, the KMW statement regarding "danger of enemy drones remains" in Kyiv suggests continued or renewed clear conditions. The missile danger alert in Bryansk Oblast further indicates favorable conditions for UAF missile/drone operations and RF air defense activity. New KAB launches on Donetsk axis further confirm favorable conditions for RF tactical aviation. Fighterbomber's "Otboy!" (All Clear) for air activity likely aligns with these clear conditions. The reported movement of a drone towards Lutsk, the explosion in Kharkiv, and the air danger regime in Lipetsk Oblast, along with the temporary flight restrictions at Volgograd airport (now lifted), all indicate clear and suitable conditions for sustained air operations by both sides. Explosions in Dnipro, continued drone movements towards Chernihiv, and a confirmed UAV over Kharkiv reinforce favorable conditions for continued air operations by both sides. The initiation of deep strike activity towards Znamianka and Svitlovodsk/Kremenchuk, with Kremenchuk under confirmed attack by 12 drones, strongly reinforces highly favorable conditions for RF air operations, particularly for massed drone attacks. Further confirmed inbound Shaheds to Kremenchuk and Kropyvnytskyi confirm continued favorable conditions for massed RF drone attacks. Renewed explosions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast indicate continued favorable conditions for RF deep strike activity. НгП раZVедка's "Iskanders already have an erection" suggests clear conditions and readiness for ballistic missile launches. The reports of 8 Shahed-type UAVs towards Starokostiantyniv, 12 towards Znamianka, 6 towards Reshetylivka, and one over Dnipro, as well as a Shahed over Volyn Oblast, all indicate continued and highly favorable conditions for widespread RF drone operations across multiple axes. Temporary flight restrictions at Nizhny Novgorod airport (RF) also suggest clear conditions for air defense or other air operations within RF territory. The reports of "several hundred" Shahed-type UAVs in Ukrainian airspace, renewed explosions in Kyiv, and ballistic missile launches from Crimea targeting Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia Oblast, confirm exceptionally clear and highly favorable conditions for broad-spectrum RF air and missile operations. The continued "red level" UAV threat in Lipetsk Oblast also confirms favorable conditions for UAF deep strikes. The continuous barrage of Shahed-type UAVs and ballistic missiles across multiple regions, especially the multiple hits in Kyiv and dozens of explosions in Kremenchuk, confirms highly favorable clear conditions for sustained RF deep strike and aerial operations, likely benefiting from minimal cloud cover and light winds conducive to drone accuracy. The confirmed attack on Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai confirms clear conditions for UAF deep strike operations as well. Renewed activity over Odesa and Dnipro further reinforces optimal conditions for sustained drone attacks. The negating of Shahed-type UAVs over Odesa/Chornomorsk suggests a temporary break in activity, though conditions remain favorable. The lifting of air raid alerts in Kyiv and for missile danger in Kryvyi Rih indicates the immediate air threat has passed. UPDATED: Current air raid alerts for Kyiv and Poltava Oblast, with incoming cruise missiles (Iskander-K) towards Kryvyi Rih, Kyiv, and Mykolaiv and Poltava Oblasts, confirm highly favorable and clear conditions for RF high-speed missile operations across a broad geographic area. Temporary flight restrictions at Zhukovsky airport, RF, suggest conditions for UAF deep strikes or RF air defense activity. The renewed missile attacks on Kyiv and Odesa, despite previous "minus" reports, confirm continued favorable conditions for RF long-range precision strikes. Conditions remain clear and favorable for ongoing air operations by both sides, including missile strikes on Kyiv and Kryvyi Rih, and the UAF deep strike on the Ilsky Oil Refinery. The destruction of 69 UAF UAVs over RF territory and the Azov Sea (RF MoD) confirms favorable conditions for UAF deep strikes and RF air defense activity. The reported drone penetration of a house in Odesa further indicates clear conditions for drone operations.
Ground Operations: Continued intense fighting at Pokrovsk, Avdiivka, Krasnolimansk, and Konstantinovka suggests generally dry ground conditions conducive to maneuver and combined arms operations. Drone footage from Krasnolimansk, Pokrovsk, and Konstantinovka underscores clear visibility for tactical drone use. Intercepted RF communications indicating heavy mortar fire and shelling further point to favorable ground conditions for artillery and maneuver. RF claim of entering Shandryholove and now "Novy Mir" further confirms favorable ground conditions. The video of Rodynske, Pokrovsk Raion, showing extensive urban damage, suggests prior heavy ground combat, reinforcing continued clear ground conditions for offensive operations. Colonelcassad's video showing a destroyed mine yard also suggests clear ground conditions for targeting. RF claims of a breakthrough at Kupyansk further suggest favorable ground conditions for offensive operations. TASS claims of RF advances southeast of Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast, reinforce continued favorable ground conditions for localized offensive operations. Colonelcassad's expectation of "interesting news" from Kupyansk direction by morning, following enemy "whining" about RF advances, suggests continued clear ground conditions conducive to RF offensive operations in that sector. TASS reports of RF gradual withdrawal from Serebryanka and pushing UAF from Dronovka indicate continued favorable ground conditions for localized RF ground maneuver and offensive actions in the Donetsk axis. Военкор Котенок's photo messages from "Дружковское направление" also imply continued clear ground conditions for observation or localized actions. Colonelcassad's latest FPV drone video showing "Center" grouping action confirms continued clear conditions for tactical drone operations supporting ground forces. UPDATED: Colonelcassad's video showing an FPV drone strike on a UAF 2S3 "Akatsiya" in Konstantinivka indicates continued clear visibility for precision tactical drone strikes supporting ground operations. The new imagery from Два майора depicting Russian military activities in woodland and open terrain, with tactical movements and artillery pieces, further confirms dry, clear ground conditions conducive to maneuver and combined arms operations. TASS reports RF repelled two UAF counterattacks in Andreevka, Sumy Oblast, indicating continued ground combat under favorable conditions.
Logistical Impact: The massive fire at the Chornomorsk port terminal will have a significant disruptive impact on UAF and potentially civilian logistics, particularly sea-based trade. The continued RF drone strikes on critical civilian infrastructure (Zaporizhzhia residential buildings, kindergarten, now fifteen wounded, one fatality in Primorske/Zaporizhzhia, 15 injured in Primorske/Zaporizhzhia), further stress logistical networks and humanitarian response. UAF deep strikes on RF oil refineries are causing fuel shortages and rationing in Russia, demonstrating a significant impact on RF logistics and public morale. Fuel shortages in occupied Luhansk and reports from a Russian civilian about gasoline scarcity further underscore this impact. Damage to the locomotive depot in Pokrovsk will also impact logistical support in the area. The burning vehicle on the Izyum-Sloviansk highway indicates potential disruption to ground transport. Further train delays to Kramatorsk due to railway damage indicate ongoing logistical disruptions in the East. The temporary flight restrictions at Volgograd airport (now lifted) may indicate disruptions to air logistics within RF territory, possibly due to UAF drone activity. TASS reports on damaged Red Sea submarine cables could indicate future broader communication and internet disruptions, indirectly affecting logistics and C2. The confirmed drone attack on Kremenchuk and the new vectors towards Kirovohrad and Poltava Oblasts pose a new, significant threat to logistical hubs and critical infrastructure in central Ukraine. Further drone attacks on Kremenchuk and Kropyvnytskyi (via inbound Shaheds) will exacerbate logistical stress in central Ukraine, particularly targeting industrial capabilities. Renewed deep strikes in Zaporizhzhia will further stress local logistical and emergency response networks. The extensive, multi-vector drone activity, including towards Starokostiantyniv, Znamianka, Reshetylivka, and Dnipro, will place significant strain on UAF logistics, particularly air defense munitions and emergency response resources across a broad area. Temporary flight restrictions at Nizhny Novgorod airport (RF) may indicate an ongoing attempt by UAF to disrupt RF air logistics, or RF measures to protect their own assets. The renewed strike on an enterprise in Zaporizhzhia, explosions in Kyiv causing vehicle fires, and strikes on Kryvyi Rih (including ballistic missiles), will further stress UAF emergency response, logistical networks, and urban infrastructure resilience. The high volume of drones in the air simultaneously exacerbates the challenge for UAF air defense resource allocation. Dozens of explosions and widespread power outages in Kremenchuk will severely disrupt industrial production and critical services, placing immense stress on emergency infrastructure repair and local logistics. The multiple impacts on residential buildings and warehouses in Kyiv, alongside partial destruction of a 4-story building in Darnitskyi district, will further strain emergency services and humanitarian aid for displaced civilians. Power outages in Kryvyi Rih will compound logistical challenges there. The confirmed attack on Ilsky oil refinery further exacerbates RF internal logistical issues. The death of two civilians and eleven injured in Kyiv, including an elderly woman in an underground shelter, alongside direct hits on residential buildings, demonstrates a severe and escalating humanitarian impact on the capital, straining emergency and medical services. The direct hits in Kryvyi Rih will also strain local services. While drones on Odesa/Chornomorsk are currently negated, the previous high volume suggests sustained targeting of critical port logistics. UPDATED: The renewed cruise missile attacks on Kryvyi Rih, Kyiv, and other regions will place further critical strain on emergency services, medical facilities, and infrastructure repair efforts. Power outages in Kryvyi Rih and Kyiv will be exacerbated. Temporary flight restrictions at Zhukovsky airport, RF, may indicate disruptions to RF air logistics or increased protective measures for strategic assets. Damage to Odesa's Sports Palace will impact civilian infrastructure and emergency services. The new confirmed hits on an administrative building in Kyiv (Pecherskyi district) and the continued strikes on civilian infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih (same object hit twice) will further stress UAF emergency response and logistical resilience. The confirmed UAF deep strike on the Ilsky Oil Refinery will further disrupt RF fuel supply chains, intensifying their logistical challenges. The reported strike on a bridge over the Dnipro in Kremenchuk will have significant logistical implications, potentially disrupting key transportation routes and isolating parts of the city or supply lines. Civilian casualties in Odesa (2 wounded) from a drone strike further strain humanitarian response. Overnight massed drone attacks on Odesa and Odesa Raion confirm widespread impact on civilian infrastructure.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Propaganda and disinformation campaigns: RF continues a highly aggressive and multi-faceted propaganda campaign. Key themes include:
Public sentiment and morale factors: Ukrainian civilian morale is under immense pressure due to sustained, high-volume, and multi-domain deep strikes on urban centers, resulting in confirmed fatalities, injuries, and widespread infrastructure damage (Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, Kremenchuk, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, Dnipro). The dehumanizing rhetoric from RF milbloggers, particularly targeting children, is designed to induce terror and erode morale. Frontline communities (Mekhove, Rodynske) are severely impacted, highlighting the struggle for resilience. UAF morale is supported by tactical successes (Buk destructions, Ilsky Refinery strike) and efforts to improve military discipline, but faces challenges from RF PSYOPs (alleged UAF defectors, 80th Brigade claims) and internal debates on mobilization. RF public sentiment is being bolstered by narratives of battlefield success, technological self-sufficiency, and "humanizing" military content, while domestic social issues are being addressed through state media.
International support and diplomatic developments: International support for Ukraine is being actively tested and influenced by RF's diplomatic warnings (Germany/Taurus), hybrid operations (Moldova), and exploitation of internal Western divisions (Bavarian PM, US politics). The alleged ZNPP drone strike by UAF (RF narrative) poses a significant diplomatic risk for Ukraine. The confirmed UAF deep strike on the Ilsky Oil Refinery will likely intensify international debate over acceptable targets and escalation risks. Upcoming "Ramstein" meetings and the PURL program highlight continued Western military aid, and Ukraine is actively promoting its growing self-sufficiency in arms production. The potential Trump-Xi Jinping meeting is a significant geopolitical development RF is leveraging. The identification of RF chemical weapon use, if verified, would necessitate a strong, unified international response. TASS's emphasis on "difficult dialogue" from Peskov is a diplomatic signal aimed at the international community.
Most likely enemy courses of action (MLCOA):
Most dangerous enemy courses of action (MDCOA):
Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:
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