Archived operational intelligence briefing
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: Russian Federation (RF) forces continue multi-axis ground offensives, with primary effort on the Pokrovsk axis. Deep strikes persist on Ukrainian energy, industrial, and civilian infrastructure, with a significant increase in volume and geographic spread of Shahed-type UAV and ballistic/cruise missile attacks. Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, Kremenchuk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro and Odesa have been heavily targeted. Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) maintain defensive posture, conduct counter-drone operations, and execute deep strikes into RF territory. RF continues to advance, claiming capture of "New World" settlement and Shandryholove. Renewed drone activity targeted Chernihiv, Sumy, Kyiv, and Kharkiv, with Zaporizhzhia experiencing significant damage to civilian infrastructure and a marked increase in civilian casualties. A new RF drone has been reported near Lutsk, and an explosion in Kharkiv. Air raid alerts are active in Lipetsk Oblast and other RF regions. RF claims 31 UAF UAVs destroyed over its territory in four hours. Volgograd airport flight restrictions were lifted. RF IO intensifies with new claims of "Colombian mercenaries" eliminated and further attempts to destabilize Ukrainian public sentiment regarding Maidan. UAF intelligence assesses RF capable of another mobilization, despite internal pain. Explosions reported in Dnipro. RF claims a breakthrough at Kupyansk, while RF state media amplifies narratives of Western warmongering and RF peace initiatives. RF command structure changes include two artillery regiments receiving 'Guards' status. RF milbloggers are claiming a "massive raid" of 116 "Geraniums" across Ukraine, including Kyiv. RF propaganda is also attempting to link UAF to "human traffickers" in Zaporizhzhia and is mocking Polish-made drones. RF deep strike activity initiated towards Kirovohrad Oblast (Znamianka) and Poltava Oblast (Svitlovodsk/Kremenchuk), with Kremenchuk confirmed under attack by a large drone group (12 Shahed-type UAVs), and additional 3 Shahed-type UAVs confirmed inbound to Kremenchuk and 3 Shahed-type UAVs towards Kropyvnytskyi. RF milbloggers are expressing intentions to exceed previous casualty records with massed strikes, and are amplifying Wall Street Journal reports on Putin's attrition strategy. TASS claims RF advances southeast of Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast, despite UAF pressure. Explosions have been reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including in the Shevchenkivskyi district of Zaporizhzhia city. RF milbloggers are claiming significant advances in Kupyansk, expecting "interesting news" by morning. Air raid alerts were active in Volyn Oblast due to a Shahed-type UAV. Further Shahed-type UAVs were reported inbound to Starokostiantyniv (Khmelnytskyi Oblast) and Znamianka (Kirovohrad Oblast), and Reshetylivka (Poltava Oblast) was under attack. One Shahed-type UAV was also reported over Dnipro. Temporary flight restrictions were introduced at Nizhny Novgorod airport (RF) and at Zhukovsky airport (RF). RF milbloggers are expressing dismissive attitudes towards Kremenchuk, despite ongoing strikes, and are using dehumanizing language related to sheltering children in basements. RF milbloggers report "several hundred" Shahed-type UAVs ("Khryakonaklonitely") in Ukrainian airspace, with more appearing. TASS reports RF forces are gradually withdrawing from Serebryanka (DNR) and consolidating positions outside the settlement, pushing UAF out of nearby Dronovka. This indicates localized RF repositioning and offensive action in the Donetsk axis. A Shahed-type UAV was reported towards Kovel (Volyn Oblast), and another towards Pivdenne/Koblevo (Odesa Oblast). Two Shahed-type UAVs were reported inbound to Kryvyi Rih. Multiple explosions are reported in Kyiv, with burning vehicles on a parking lot in Svyatoshynskyi district due to RF attack. Ballistic missile launches from Crimea were reported targeting Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Three Shahed-type UAVs were over Kyiv, and two were approaching Zaporizhzhia from the north. An RF milblogger shares a video of an alleged UAF soldier stating his intention to go abroad, indicating continued RF information operations targeting UAF morale and mobilization. Explosions are reported in Kryvyi Rih. RF deep strikes are impacting residential multi-story buildings in Kyiv's Svyatoshynskyi district, causing fires. Kremenchuk is experiencing dozens of explosions, leading to widespread power outages in parts of the city. RF President Putin is presented with latest engine production by Rostec in Samara, emphasizing domestic military-industrial capabilities. Three individuals have died in an explosion in a tunnel in Khabarovsk Krai, RF. RF has launched additional high-speed targets towards Kryvyi Rih. Renewed explosions are confirmed in Zaporizhzhia, targeting an enterprise. RF Shahed-type UAVs are attacking Odesa, with explosions confirmed, and a significant new group of 8 UAVs reported targeting Usatove/Odesa/Chornomorsk. Additional 11 Shahed-type UAVs from Kharkiv Oblast are inbound towards Samar/Dnipro. In Kyiv's Svyatoshynskyi district, another 9-story building is ablaze, and a warehouse fire is reported. In Kyiv's Darnitskyi district, a 4-story building has partial third-floor destruction. In Kyiv, one person has died in Svyatoshynskyi district, and an elderly woman has died in an underground shelter in Darnitskyi district, bringing total fatalities to two. The number of injured in Kyiv has risen to eleven. All remaining Shahed-type UAVs targeting Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih, and Dnipro have been negated (shot down or passed). TASS reports that a settlement of the Ukrainian conflict is approaching due to dialogue between US and Russian presidents (Kirill Dmitriev), which is an RF IO message. TASS also reports that director Zhora Kryzhovnikov is on Ukraine's Myrotvorets website, an RF IO message of victimhood. UPDATED: Air raid alerts activated in Kyiv and Poltava Oblast due to multiple inbound cruise missiles. Cruise missiles are observed over Sumy Oblast (towards Pryluky), Beryslavskyi Raion (towards Bereznehuvate), Mykolaiv Oblast (towards Voznesensk), and are approaching Kryvyi Rih and Kyiv. Explosions reported in Kryvyi Rih from Iskander-K missiles. RF IO emphasizes the need for 'difficult dialogue' to settle the situation in Ukraine. Two fatalities (one young woman, one one-year-old child) confirmed in Kyiv's Svyatoshynskyi district from the current missile attack (Klichko). Another explosion reported in Odesa. Some power outages in Kyiv after missile attacks. RF claims destruction of a UAF 2S3 "Akatsiya" SPG in Konstantinivka via FPV drones (Colonelcassad). TASS reports RF plans to modernize 29 airfields in the Far East with 158 billion rubles. TASS also reports Russian universities may drop "Social Studies" from ЕГЭ in favor of "History." TASS reports 358 agreements worth 6.058 trillion rubles signed at the Eastern Economic Forum in 2025. UAF confirms damage to a sports palace in Odesa.
Pokrovsk Axis: RF continues to concentrate experienced marine units, specifically the "Somali" battalion, for a "decisive breakthrough" near Pokrovsk. RF milbloggers are disseminating video footage of drone strikes on UAF positions and an alleged FOB. New video from Старше Эдды (HIGH CONFIDENCE) on the "Krasnolimansk direction" shows "super successful work of drone operators" of the 144th Guards Motorized Rifle Division (MRD), indicating continued RF drone operations supporting ground efforts, possibly related to or drawing resources from the broader Donbas offensive. UAF 32nd Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMB) "UMBRELLA" unit reports destroying RF personnel, shelters, and positions with fiber-optic drones on the Pokrovsk direction (STERNENKO, HIGH CONFIDENCE), indicating intense UAF defensive efforts and effective counter-drone operations. New intelligence (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE) shows damage to the locomotive depot in Pokrovsk, indicating RF targeting of infrastructure around the city. RF sources (Операция Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE) now claim "Army of Russia broke into the southern part of Shandryholove," indicating localized RF ground advances in a village located northeast of Sloviansk, impacting the Donbas axis generally. This aligns with previous RF pressure and continued efforts to gain ground in Donetsk Oblast. The 7th Assault Airborne Corps (VDV) states that "occupiers are preparing a 'decisive breakthrough' in Donetsk region using a large number of military personnel and equipment," which is a direct confirmation of the Pokrovsk offensive preparations from a Ukrainian perspective, aligning with previous RF milblogger reports. New RF launches of KABs reported on Donetsk axis. A new video from Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (HIGH CONFIDENCE) shows extensive damage to the urban area of Rodynske, Pokrovsk Raion, indicating sustained RF pressure and destructive tactics. Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) shares a video showing a destroyed facility (mine yard, Belozerskaya mine) allegedly used by UAF for defensive structures and vehicle repair, suggesting RF strikes targeting UAF rear support for the Pokrovsk offensive.
Donetsk Axis (Toretsk, Sloviansk, Avdiivka, Konstantinovka): Intense fighting continues around Toretsk. Reports of extensive destruction in Avdiivka (Два майора, HIGH CONFIDENCE video showing damaged apartment buildings, collapsed structures, destroyed bridge) highlight sustained RF pressure and urban combat devastation. RF claims of dislodging UAF from Poltavka on the Konstantinovka direction are contested. DeepState reports a 1st Assault Battalion operation "cutting off enemy claws" near Dobropillia (✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE), indicating ongoing UAF offensive or counter-offensive actions in the broader Donetsk region. UAF General Staff (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE) confirms RF ground attacks continue on the Pokrovsk, Donetsk, and Krasnolimansk axes, indicating sustained RF pressure across the eastern front. UAF also reports 77 combat engagements over the past day, highlighting the intensity of fighting. Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) posts drone footage from the "Konstantinovka direction," showing artillery strikes on UAF positions and damaged structures, indicating continued RF pressure in this area. New RF launches of KABs reported on Donetsk axis. Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) released a video depicting an FPV drone strike on a Ukrainian soldier in a trench, which RF milbloggers often attribute to the Krasnolimansk or Donetsk direction. This reinforces the observed intense drone activity in these areas. TASS (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports that UAF is in a "stalemate" at Konstantinovka and is deploying additional forces to the city, attempting to contain the RF advance. "Сливочный каприз" (HIGH CONFIDENCE) posted imagery related to Dobropillia - Rubizhne - Kucherov Yar - Nikanorivka, which are areas broadly within the Donetsk or Donbas axis, suggesting continued ground activity or ISR in these regions. TASS reports RF forces are gradually withdrawing from Serebryanka (DNR) and consolidating positions outside the settlement, pushing UAF out of nearby Dronovka. This indicates localized RF repositioning and offensive action in the Donetsk axis, likely to establish more defensible positions or to open up new lines of advance towards Dronovka. Военкор Котенок shares photo messages captioned "Дружковское направление", implying continued RF activity or observation in the general Donetsk region. UPDATED: Colonelcassad releases video claiming destruction of a UAF 2S3 "Akatsiya" Self-Propelled Artillery (SPA) system in temporarily occupied Konstantinivka, DNR, using fiber-optic FPV drones. This indicates continued RF tactical drone operations and targeting of UAF artillery.
Kharkiv Axis: RF claims continued advances. Today marks the 3rd anniversary of the Kharkiv Offensive (КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno, HIGH CONFIDENCE map), a reminder of past UAF successes and current RF efforts to regain initiative in the region. New RF drone group (4 UAVs) detected coursing towards/through Kharkiv (Николаевский Ванёк, HIGH CONFIDENCE). An explosion has been reported in Kharkiv (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Oleg Sinegubov (Харківської ОДА, HIGH CONFIDENCE) confirms an enemy UAV detected over Kharkiv. Alex Parker Returns (HIGH CONFIDENCE) and Военкор Котенок (HIGH CONFIDENCE) both claim Kupyansk has been "liberated" and UAF defenses broken, indicating a significant claimed RF advance in the Kharkiv region. Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports that "the enemy is actively whining that our troops have advanced well both in Kupyansk itself and next to it," indicating continued RF claims of significant ground advances in the Kupyansk sector and an expectation of further "interesting news" by morning. Николаевский Ванёк reports approximately 11 new Shahed-type UAVs from Kharkiv Oblast are inbound towards Samar/Dnipro.
Kyiv/Chernihiv/Sumy/Volyn Axis: Previous reports of a new RF UAV group entering Kyiv Oblast from Brovary led to air raid alerts. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE) now reports "strike UAVs in Sumy region -> heading towards Chernihiv region," indicating ongoing multi-vector deep strike threats and a potential shift or expansion of drone routes. Broader alerts indicate a widespread threat across Ukraine (Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE maps). Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports "Geraniums" (Shahed-type drones) flying over Zaporizhzhia and working on "Ukronazi objects," also reporting "Geraniums" in Kyiv Oblast and Sumy, with "hits" (прилеты). Kyiv air raid alert has been reactivated (КМВА, РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE) due to a group of Shaheds heading for the capital and a renewed threat of ballistic weapons from the north (РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE). (НгП раZVедка, HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports "Drones are going to Kyiv to find out what's with their 'pyatakovalnikami'," a crude reference to targeting Ukrainian civilians/officials. This indicates RF intent to continue deep strikes on the capital. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE) issued an "all clear" for the air threat to Kyiv and Ukraine at 19:23Z, indicating the immediate drone/ballistic threat has passed. However, KMW (КМВА, HIGH CONFIDENCE) later states "The danger of enemy drones remains," indicating ongoing or renewed threats to the capital. Николаевский Ванёк (HIGH CONFIDENCE) provides a general update on drone movements, suggesting continued multi-vector threats. AV БогомаZ (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports a missile danger alert and subsequent "all clear" in Unechsky district of Bryansk Oblast, indicating ongoing RF air defense activity against potential UAF strikes. UAF PVO is currently active in Kyiv (Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, КМВА, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Air Force of Ukraine (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE) reiterates "strike UAVs in Sumy region -> heading towards Chernihiv region." Fighterbomber (HIGH CONFIDENCE) also reported "Otboy!" (All Clear) for air activity, likely pertaining to the Kyiv area. The Kyiv City Military Administration (КМВА, HIGH CONFIDENCE) subsequently announced at 20:58Z that "The threat of enemy attack continues," confirming the dynamic and ongoing nature of the air threat to the capital. Николаевский Ванёк (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports one "moped" (Shahed-type drone) flying towards Lutsk from Rivne, indicating a new western vector for RF deep strikes. НгП раZVедка (HIGH CONFIDENCE) states "One and a half hundred reparations flying to the cursed tribe, and the night has just begun," an ominous and dehumanizing reference to further drone attacks. РБК-Україна (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports explosions in Dnipro. Air Force of Ukraine (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE) reiterates "strike UAVs in Sumy region ➡️ курсом на Чернігівщину (heading towards Chernihiv region)." Николаевский Ванёк (HIGH CONFIDENCE) provides an update on "moped" (Shahed-type drone) movements, reinforcing the multi-vector air threat. RF milblogger Операция Z (HIGH CONFIDENCE) is now claiming a "massive raid" of 116 "Geraniums" attacking targets near Kyiv and other regions of Ukraine. This is an unverified, but high-volume claim. A video from Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) captioned "Russian drone attacks 'human traffickers' in Zaporizhzhia" suggests new RF IO linking UAF to criminal activity, although the video itself shows a drone navigating a training course. This appears to be a miscaptioned video. New updates from Николаевский Ванёк (HIGH CONFIDENCE) confirm "общая по мопедам" (general update on mopeds), and Air Force of Ukraine (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reiterates "strike UAVs in Sumy region ➡️ курсом на Чернігівщину." РБК-Україна (HIGH CONFIDENCE) also provides a new map update on drone movements, confirming continued activity in these regions. НгП раZVедка (HIGH CONFIDENCE) states, "Iskanders already have an erection," a highly aggressive and threatening statement indicating a readiness to employ ballistic missiles, likely in response to perceived UAF actions or in support of ground offensives. Air Force of Ukraine (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports a Shahed-type UAV over Volyn Oblast, heading west, indicating the western drone threat is active. Николаевский Ванёк reports one Shahed-type UAV towards Kovel (Volyn Oblast), with potential for loud impacts. Multiple explosions are heard in Kyiv. The Kyiv City Military Administration (КМВА) confirms burning vehicles on a parking lot in Svyatoshynskyi district of Kyiv as a result of an enemy attack. Николаевский Ванёк reports 3 Shahed-type UAVs currently over Kyiv. НгП раZVедка reports PVO active in Kyiv. Николаевский Ванёк reports 5 Shahed-type UAVs over Kyiv. KMW confirms PVO continue to engage enemy targets in capital airspace. KMW reports drone fragments hit a 16-story building in Svyatoshynskyi district, causing a fire on the upper floor (Klitschko). KMW confirms another hit on a 9-story residential building in Svyatoshynskyi district, resulting in fire. Air Force of Ukraine reports enemy UAVs in Chernihiv region are heading towards Kyiv region. РБК-Україна reports another 9-story building is on fire in Svyatoshynskyi district of Kyiv. РБК-Україна confirms a fire in warehouses in Svyatoshynskyi district. In Kyiv's Darnitskyi district, the third floor of a 4-story building is partially destroyed (Klitschko). Two casualties are confirmed in Kyiv due to the attacks. An additional 4 Shahed-type UAVs are inbound to Kryvyi Rih from Pokrov, and 7 Shahed-type UAVs remain inbound to Dnipro. The number of injured in Kyiv has risen to eleven. In Kyiv's Svyatoshynskyi district, one person has died. In Kyiv's Darnitskyi district, an elderly woman has died in an underground shelter. Air Force of Ukraine reports enemy UAVs on the north of Kyiv region are now heading south. The air raid alert for Kyiv has been lifted. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts images of a multi-story building on fire in Kyiv after a direct drone hit. UPDATED: Air raid alert reactivated in Kyiv (КМВА, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, КМВА). Air Force of Ukraine reports a high-speed target from Chernihiv region towards Kyiv region. Николаевский Ванёк reports 2-3 cruise missiles heading for Kyiv. Air Force of Ukraine reports cruise missiles (КР) over Poltava region towards Cherkasy region, and in Mykolaiv region in a southern direction. Николаевский Ванёк reports cruise missiles over Sumy region towards Pryluky. Another cruise missile reported via Beryslavskyi Raion towards Bereznehuvate. One cruise missile over Mykolaiv Oblast towards Voznesensk. These are identified as Iskander-K. Temporary restrictions introduced at Zhukovsky airport, RF (ТАСС). Николаевский Ванёк reports that previous missiles targeting Kyiv and Odesa are now a "minus" (negated or passed). STERNENKO and РБК-Україна confirm the number of fatalities in Kyiv has risen to two, with rescuers de-blocking the body of a one-year-old child from under rubble in Svyatoshynskyi district. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports one person died and eleven injured in Svyatoshynskyi district. Air Force of Ukraine issues a "Kyiv in shelter!" alert due to renewed missile threat. Николаевский Ванёк reports a pair of missiles approaching Kyiv/Vasylkiv from Boryspil. STERNENKO warns of an ongoing missile-drone attack. РБК-Україна confirms 2 fatalities (young woman and child) in Svyatoshynskyi district as per Klichko. STERNENKO reports another group of missiles on Kyiv. РБК-Україна reports some power outages in Kyiv after the missile attack. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms 2 fatalities (young woman and child) in Svyatoshynskyi district as per Klichko. РБК-Україна shows first photos of Kyiv attack aftermath from State Emergency Service (DSNS), confirming extensive damage to a multi-story residential building engulfed in smoke and flames, with firefighters active. РБК-Україна and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report a штаб (headquarters) established in Svyatoshynskyi district to help victims.
Kirovohrad/Poltava Axis: Николаевский Ванёк (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports five Shahed-type drones ("mopeds") coursing towards/through Znamianka, Kirovohrad Oblast. Subsequently, Николаевский Ванёк (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports ten Shahed-type drones coursing towards/through Svitlovodsk/Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast, with Kremenchuk now confirmed under attack by 12 drones. This indicates a significant new deep strike vector targeting central Ukraine. Николаевский Ванёк (HIGH CONFIDENCE) further reports "3 новых мопеда на Кременчуг" (3 new mopeds for Kremenchuk) and "3 мопеда с севера курсом на/через Кропивницкий" (3 mopeds from the north coursing towards/through Kropyvnytskyi). This indicates a continued and intensifying deep strike effort on central Ukraine, including Kropyvnytskyi. Николаевский Ванёк (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports 12 Shahed-type UAVs ("mopeds") are coursing towards/through Znamianka (Kirovohrad Oblast) from the northwest and north, indicating an escalation of drone activity in this region. Николаевский Ванёк (HIGH CONFIDENCE) further reports that Reshetylivka (Poltava Oblast) is under attack, with 6 additional Shahed-type UAVs inbound. РБК-Україна confirms that Kremenchuk is under drone attack this night. Николаевский Ванёк reports that the Shahed-type UAVs towards Starokostiantyniv have been negated ("минус"), indicating successful UAF air defense engagement. Colonelcassad shares videos captioned "It's hot in Kremenchuk. There's already a whole series of arrivals in the city," showing explosions and fires on a body of water. РБК-Україна reports dozens of explosions in Kremenchuk, with part of the city without power. UPDATED: Air Force of Ukraine reports a cruise missile (КР) over Poltava region towards Cherkasy region.
Zaporizhzhia Axis (CRITICAL): Multiple sources (STERNENKO, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, HIGH CONFIDENCE) confirm at least seven RF UAVs targeted Zaporizhzhia, causing multiple fires and significant damage. Damage assessments confirm six multi-story and four private residential buildings damaged, and a kindergarten and an enterprise were impacted. The number of civilian wounded has increased from two to fifteen (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE), with one person rescued from under rubble. (ТАСС, HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports the Ukrainian army (UAF) attacked the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) training center with drones, hitting the roof of "Building G." This is a new, serious allegation that could escalate tensions around the ZNPP. Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) has also reported the ZNPP training center strike, confirming it as an RF narrative. New video footage from Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE) further details the aftermath of the RF drone attacks, showing damaged residential buildings and ongoing rescue operations. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE) has issued an "all clear" for the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia. РБК-Україна (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports "Emergency rescue operations in Zaporizhzhia completed," confirming the cessation of immediate rescue efforts. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (HIGH CONFIDENCE) shares a video showing extensive damage to a multi-story building in Zaporizhzhia, reinforcing previous BDA. TASS (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports ZNPP personnel were not injured in the alleged UAF drone attack on the training center, reiterating RF narrative. РБК-Україна (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports explosions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with information about an explosion from the Shevchenkivskyi district in Zaporizhzhia city, as per the OBA, indicating renewed deep strike activity in the region. РБК-Україна reports another RF strike on an enterprise in Zaporizhzhia. The Zaporizhzhia OBA confirms the enterprise strike. РБК-Україна states there is a threat of ballistic missile use for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк reports two Shahed-type UAVs approaching Zaporizhzhia from the north. РБК-Україна confirms new explosions in Zaporizhzhia and that the enemy targeted an enterprise. Николаевский Ванёк reports that all Shahed-type UAVs targeting Zaporizhzhia have been negated.
Odesa/Chornomorsk Axis (CRITICAL): The massive industrial fire at a port terminal in Chornomorsk continues to be reported by RF sources (Операция Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE video shows large black smoke plume from industrial facility at port with railway cars), highlighting ongoing damage and disruption to critical infrastructure. Николаевский Ванёк reports one Shahed-type UAV approaching Usatove/Odesa from the north, with potential for loud impacts. Николаевский Ванёк reports 5 Shahed-type UAVs flying towards Usatove/Odesa from the north, indicating an increased threat to the Odesa area. РБК-Україна confirms Odesa is under attack by Russian Shaheds, with explosions heard. Николаевский Ванёк reports 8 Shahed-type UAVs are attacking Usatove/Odesa/Chornomorsk, with 4 Shaheds currently over Odesa. Николаевский Ванёк reports "minus" (negated) for mopeds towards Odesa/Chornomorsk as of current time. UPDATED: РБК-Україна reports RF launched a massive drone strike on Odesa and Odesa Raion overnight. Another explosion reported in Odesa. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports damage to a sports palace in Odesa from the attack.
Kryvyi Rih Axis (CRITICAL UPDATE): Николаевский Ванёк reports two Shahed-type UAVs flying towards Kryvyi Rih, with potential for loud impacts. Subsequently, Николаевский Ванёк reports ballistic missile launch from Crimea targeting Kryvyi Rih. Explosions are reported in Kryvyi Rih by "Suspilne" (РБК-Україна). Николаевский Ванёк reports another ballistic missile strike on Kryvyi Rih, followed by a second ballistic missile. In addition to ballistic missiles, 10 Shahed-type UAVs are flying towards Kryvyi Rih, with 7 remaining. Oleksandr Vilkul confirms explosions and a massive missile and Shahed attack on Kryvyi Rih. Air Force of Ukraine confirms a high-speed target towards Kryvyi Rih, followed by another high-speed target. РБК-Україна confirms Kryvyi Rih is under a massive missile and Shahed attack. Oleksandr Vilkul urges everyone to stay in safe places. РБК-Україна reports power outages in Kryvyi Rih due to the attack. Николаевский Ванёк reports 4 new Shahed-type UAVs have passed Pokrov and are heading towards Kryvyi Rih. РБК-Україна reports hits in three locations in Kryvyi Rih. Николаевский Ванёк reports that all Shahed-type UAVs targeting Kryvyi Rih have been negated. Oleksandr Vilkul reports missile danger clear. UPDATED: Николаевский Ванёк reports 3 cruise missiles (identified as Iskander-K) have turned towards Kryvyi Rih. Explosions reported in Kryvyi Rih. Oleksandr Vilkul confirms a new wave of missile attacks, with explosions and more missiles in the air. РБК-Україна reports a new wave of attacks on Kryvyi Rih.
Dnipro Axis (CRITICAL UPDATE): Explosions have been reported in Dnipro (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE). РБК-Україна confirms Dnipro is under a massive drone attack, with explosions in the city. Николаевский Ванёк reports 11 new Shahed-type UAVs from Kharkiv Oblast are inbound towards Samar/Dnipro, with 7 of these remaining. Николаевский Ванёк reports that all Shahed-type UAVs targeting Dnipro have been negated.
RF Deep Strikes on UAF Logistics: An intercepted RF radio communication (Воин DV, HIGH CONFIDENCE) reveals instances of friendly fire ("our tank is firing on us," "infantry is dying") and significant casualties (200, 300 heavy) within RF units, suggesting possible C2 issues or a high-stress combat environment.
RF Ground Advances: Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports, "Russian military reached the outskirts of the settlement Novy Mir (Rubtsovsk direction) and raised the RF flag there." This indicates a new, localized RF ground advance and territorial claim, likely near Velyka Novosilka. TASS (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports that Russian military personnel are advancing southeast of Yunakivka, Sumy Oblast, despite serious pressure and counterattacks from the UAF, indicating sustained RF ground pressure and claimed advances in border regions. Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) FPV drone video claims to show continued "grinding down" of UAF equipment and personnel by "Center" grouping. This indicates active tactical drone operations supporting RF ground forces.
UAF Deep Strikes into RF Territory (CRITICAL UPDATE): Ministry of Defense of Russia (AV БогомаZ, ASTRA, HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports one UAF fixed-wing drone shot down over Bryansk Oblast. Additionally, (ASTRA, HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports a woman was injured after a UAF drone attack in Belgorod Oblast, indicating continued UAF deep strike efforts. SBS (Special Border Service) reports showing the consequences of "deep strikes" on Russia, including satellite imagery of damage to oil refineries in Ryazan, Krasnodar, Saratov, Syzran, and Samara (Kuybyshev) throughout August 2025 (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE video). This confirms continued UAF deep strike capabilities and a focus on RF energy infrastructure, leading to reported fuel shortages and rationing. STERNENKO (HIGH CONFIDENCE) issues a general "drone safety" alert for multiple RF regions (Voronezh, Belgorod, Saratov, Kursk, Rostov, Kuban) and occupied Crimea/Luhansk, indicating high UAF drone activity or intent. RF sources (Операция Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE) confirm "mass enemy attacks" on Klimovo in Bryansk Oblast, showing large plumes of smoke, likely related to the successful UAF deep strike on the electrical substation reported previously. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE) also reports on fuel shortages in occupied Luhansk, stating that regular citizens are not being sold fuel at gas stations, with priority given to government officials and civil servants. This is direct evidence of the impact of UAF deep strikes on RF logistics and occupied territories. AV БогомаZ (HIGH CONFIDENCE) issues and then cancels a missile danger alert in Unechsky district, Bryansk Oblast, indicating ongoing UAF deep strike attempts and RF air defense reactions. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (HIGH CONFIDENCE) shares a video of a Russian woman complaining about fuel shortages in Russia, further reinforcing the impact of UAF deep strikes. TASS (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports 31 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over RF regions in four hours. AV БогомаZ (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports two fixed-wing UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. Lipetsk Oblast (Игорь Артамонов, HIGH CONFIDENCE) has introduced an air danger regime. Volgograd airport (ТАСС, HIGH CONFIDENCE) has temporary flight restrictions for aircraft. Igor Artamonov (Lipetsk Oblast Governor, HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports a "red level" UAV attack threat for Dobrinsky MR, indicating ongoing UAF deep strike activity. Igor Artamonov (HIGH CONFIDENCE) has now issued an "all clear" for the red level UAV attack threat in Dobrinsky MR, suggesting a temporary cessation or neutralization of UAF deep strike activity in that specific area. TASS (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports temporary flight restrictions have been introduced at Nizhny Novgorod airport (RF), indicating an ongoing or anticipated air threat within RF territory, possibly due to UAF deep strike activity or RF air defense operations. Igor Artamonov (Lipetsk Oblast Governor) has again declared a red level "UAV attack threat" for Dobrinsky MR. ASTRA reports the Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai was attacked, and one of its technological units caught fire. This confirms continued UAF deep strike success against RF energy infrastructure. Igor Artamonov (Lipetsk Oblast Governor) has now issued an "all clear" for the red level UAV attack threat (yellow level active). UPDATED: Temporary flight restrictions have been introduced at Zhukovsky airport, RF (TASS).
RF Force Generation/Sustainment: RF milbloggers continue to publish imagery related to RF vehicle repair and sustainment. (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports on fundraising for re-equipping UAZ vehicles for mobile air defense groups in Rostov Oblast, demonstrating both grassroots support and a need for mobile air defense, likely against UAF deep strikes. RF is continuing efforts to recruit manpower, with video footage from Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) showing what appears to be "human traffickers" (людоловы) in Rivne (г. Ровно) forcibly detaining individuals for mobilization, framing it as "meat harvesting" (мясозаготовка). RF milbloggers are also actively exploiting a Ukrainian Rada MP's criticism of the policy allowing 18-22 year olds to travel abroad, framing it as "shooting oneself in the foot" and loss of manpower (Операция Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE). Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) also provides an updated statistical overview of UAF losses (tanks, IFVs, APCs, armored vehicles, SPGs, aviation) based on LostArmour as of 06 SEP 2025, a continuous RF effort to track and publicize UAF losses. New imagery from Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) includes complex tables and bar charts related to "Самоходная артиллерия" (Self-propelled artillery) and "Доля западного вооружения" (Share of Western armament) regarding military equipment losses and deliveries. This indicates a sustained RF effort to analyze and publicize perceived UAF losses, especially of Western-supplied equipment, for propaganda purposes. A photo message from АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (HIGH CONFIDENCE) titled "MARATHON 'HUNDREDS'" showing damaged drones and requesting donations indicates continued grassroots fundraising for RF equipment, highlighting resource constraints for specific units. Два майора (HIGH CONFIDENCE) is fundraising for fiber optic equipment for drones, indicating continued grassroots support for RF drone capabilities and acknowledging resource needs. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (HIGH CONFIDENCE) shares a video of a Ukrainian Committee on National Security secretary expressing concern that allowing 18-22 year olds to travel abroad would result in them not returning, highlighting the demographic and mobilization challenges faced by Ukraine, and RF exploitation of this narrative. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (HIGH CONFIDENCE) also states his agreement with the demographic concern ("unfortunately, the situation is very deplorable"). Ukrainian GUR head Budanov (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE; Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE; Alex Parker Returns, HIGH CONFIDENCE) states Russia can conduct another mobilization, even if it is painful for the RF. Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports that two artillery regiments, the 292nd and 944th, have been granted "Guards" status by Presidential decree, indicating formal recognition of performance and potentially boosting morale/prestige. TASS (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports on the need to grant teachers and doctors civil servant status and benefits, including early retirement, due to a shortage of 250,000 teachers. This indicates domestic socio-economic issues within RF that could impact force generation if not addressed. Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) shares a video featuring an RF veteran who lost both legs, returning to Donbas as a volunteer, captioned "Life must go on." This narrative is clearly aimed at boosting morale, highlighting resilience, and encouraging support for the war effort among the Russian public, despite personal sacrifice. Colonelcassad shares a video captioned "My story in the Armed Forces of Ukraine is over. Kombat, I'm sorry. I'm going abroad." This video is clearly part of an RF IO campaign targeting Ukrainian morale and mobilization, featuring an alleged UAF defector. Colonelcassad shares multiple video messages of Rostec engine developers demonstrating their latest products to Putin in Samara, with Putin emphasizing the significant increase in aircraft engine and turbojet engine production, and Russia's position among the top five global leaders. He stresses the importance of this industry for technological sovereignty and economic growth, indicating a focus on domestic military-industrial complex capabilities and self-sufficiency, potentially in response to sanctions. Colonelcassad shares a video showing Chinese tank crews receiving "intelligent helmets" with integrated communication systems and augmented reality displays. This showcases foreign military technological advancements, which RF may seek to emulate or integrate. UPDATED: TASS shares a video message from Vitaly Savelyev, Deputy Prime Minister of RF, stating plans to modernize 29 airfields in the Far East with approximately 158 billion rubles. This indicates a significant long-term investment in RF domestic infrastructure, including for potential dual-use civilian/military air mobility. TASS reports that Russian universities are ready to drop "Social Studies" (Обществознание) from the Unified State Exam (ЕГЭ) in favor of "History," a move that could serve RF's ideological goals. TASS reports 358 agreements worth 6.058 trillion rubles were signed at the Eastern Economic Forum in 2025, promoting economic stability and development, likely aimed at counteracting sanctions narratives.
International Diplomacy/IO: RF MFA Spokesperson Nechaev (ТАСС, HIGH CONFIDENCE) states potential German Taurus missile deliveries would mean a "new quality" in Russian-German relations, a clear warning. Moldova's EU integration is framed by RF as an "electoral mirage" (Рыбарь, HIGH CONFIDENCE video analysis), indicating continued RF hybrid influence operations against pro-Western governments in the region. A Ukrainian MP (ASTRA, HIGH CONFIDENCE) claims a "coalition of willing" is ready to deploy military contingents to Ukraine now, a significant statement impacting the narrative of international support. The Prime Minister of Bavaria states that instead of sending German military to Ukraine, refugees should be returned (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE), directly challenging Western unity on Ukraine support. WSJ (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE) states Putin is betting Ukraine will exhaust itself before RF's economy, underscoring the long-term strategic calculation. RF MoD is also using video of an alleged AFU POW (Nikolai Stupko) to spread narratives of low morale, escapes, and disillusionment within UAF ranks (MoD Russia, HIGH CONFIDENCE), a clear PSYOP effort. TASS (HIGH CONFIDENCE) is also publishing "humanizing" content showing Russian soldiers bringing home kittens from the front, designed to counter negative perceptions of RF military personnel. An unknown aircraft crashed in Majdan-Sielec, Lublin Voivodeship, Poland (Операция Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE), indicating potential further airspace incidents. Media sources (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE) identify specific RF units using chemical weapons in Ukraine, which, if confirmed, would represent a severe escalation. President Zelensky (Zelenskiy / Official, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE) emphasizes that "next week should also be quite active," preparing for a "Ramstein" format meeting, and working for new partner contributions to the PURL program (over $2 billion for American weapons). He also highlights a priority for increased air defense against "Shaheds" and missiles and mentions Ukraine is nearing 60% self-sufficiency in weapons for the UAF and has begun producing its own advanced anti-aircraft systems. The Ministry of Defense (Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE) and Shmyhal/Rada (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE) have agreed not to intensify punishment for military personnel and to base military discipline on justice, not punishment, indicating a response to internal discussions and public sentiment about mobilization and military law. RF sources (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, HIGH CONFIDENCE) are disseminating morale-boosting messages from RF paratrooper units, asking for support for the "paratrooper brotherhood," aimed at internal and external audiences. (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH CONFIDENCE) report that Slovak PM Fico claims Putin is "interested in meeting Zelensky not only in Moscow." This, combined with Putin's stated long-term strategy, indicates a potential RF diplomatic maneuver aimed at demonstrating openness to negotiation while continuing military pressure. (Colonelcassad, HIGH CONFIDENCE) also notes India's MFA officially rebuffed Trump's demands, highlighting shifts in global diplomatic alignment. UAF General Staff (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE) provides operational information as of 22:00Z on 06 SEP 2025, detailing RF offensive actions and UAF defensive responses. A photo from Рыбарь (HIGH CONFIDENCE) titled "What Rybar says" appears to be promotional material, continuing their IO influence. (STERNENKO, HIGH CONFIDENCE) shared a video of "Onyx team work" showing an FPV drone strike on a ruined building, identifying a Ukrainian "ROTA BEZPILOТNYKH SYSTEM" (Company of Unmanned Systems) unit, demonstrating continued UAF tactical drone capabilities. (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE) confirms that tomorrow (07 SEP) trains to Kramatorsk will also run with delays, indicating continued disruption to railway infrastructure, likely from RF strikes (possibly related to the Pokrovsk locomotive depot damage or broader railway interdiction). President Zelensky (Zelenskiy / Official, HIGH CONFIDENCE) reiterates upcoming Ramstein meeting, PURL program, and priority for air defense. He also announces Ukraine is 60% self-sufficiency in weapons and is co-producing missile/drone components with Denmark, and had meetings with G7 parliamentary speakers, emphasizing broad international support. Операция Z (HIGH CONFIDENCE) further amplifies Slovak PM Fico's statement on Putin's readiness to meet Zelensky. Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) claims "Third party of eliminated Colombian mercenaries serving the narco-fuhrer today. Ukrainism and Banderaism kills," further escalating dehumanizing rhetoric and falsely claiming foreign mercenary involvement. Colonelcassad also shares a video alleging financial incentives for Maidan protests, attempting to undermine Ukrainian state legitimacy. MoD Russia (HIGH CONFIDENCE) provides a "Top News Today" graphic, likely summarizing RF narratives. Alex Parker Returns (HIGH CONFIDENCE) also amplified the claims of JD Vance regarding US foreign policy, which are relevant to RF IO attempts to fracture Western unity. Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) also shares a photo message mocking the Governor of Illinois for opposing the use of US troops in Chicago and calling Trump a "self-proclaimed dictator," further reinforcing narratives of Western disunity. TASS (HIGH CONFIDENCE) provides a positive human interest story about a total lunar eclipse being visible in Russia, a potential diversion from ongoing conflict news. TASS (HIGH CONFIDENCE) highlights RF Ambassador to Germany Nechaev's warning against Western "war preparation" statements. Операция Z (HIGH CONFIDENCE) amplifies "Russian Spring Military Correspondents" claiming Putin and Trump will prevent World War III, a clear RF IO initiative targeting international audiences and the US election cycle. Colonelcassad (HIGH CONFIDENCE) also shares a photo of a C-130J being converted to an E-130J Phoenix II, likely to generate narratives about Western military aid or capabilities. TASS (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports on potential disruptions to Microsoft Azure due to Red Sea cable damage, potentially for IO purposes related to global stability and Western vulnerabilities. НгП раZVедка (HIGH CONFIDENCE) is now disseminating highly inflammatory and derogatory claims mocking Ukrainian or Polish-made drones, stating "Poles somewhere in the basements fashioned a pshedron, called it pshegeranium and are attacking the Eastern Kresy, sometimes called Western Ukraine." This suggests new RF IO focusing on discrediting Western/Ukrainian drone capabilities and potentially creating friction between Ukraine and Poland. НгП раZVедка (HIGH CONFIDENCE) explicitly states the mood is to "take and beat the record of the Yavoriv training ground for the simultaneous elimination of Khokhloryl," a highly aggressive and dehumanizing statement indicating intent for mass casualty events. Операция Z (HIGH CONFIDENCE) amplifies Wall Street Journal reports on Putin's attrition strategy, which he expects will allow him to "impose the terms of the victor," reinforcing RF's long-term strategic calculation. TASS (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports on Trump's statement about US readiness to continue military operations in the Caribbean against drug cartels, a likely attempt to divert attention or link to RF narratives about "narcotics" in Ukraine. TASS (HIGH CONFIDENCE) reports on the possibility of a meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in South Korea (31 Oct - 01 Nov). This is a significant international diplomatic development that RF is highlighting. НгП раZVедка (HIGH CONFIDENCE) uses highly aggressive and dehumanizing language towards Ukrainians, stating, "Our kids will go to schools and kindergartens, and theirs will sit in basements." This is a direct psychological warfare tactic aimed at demoralizing the Ukrainian civilian population, particularly in areas under active drone attack. TASS shares a video of Russian State Duma Vice-Speaker Irina Yarovaya discussing the significance of the Russian language, its role in dialogue and friendship, and its potential for intercultural understanding, emphasizing positive cultural and scientific contributions. This is a soft power IO effort. TASS shares a video message from State Duma Vice-Speaker Irina Yarovaya emphasizing Russia's loyal allies, shared WWII victory, and protection of its people, serving as a morale-boosting and alliance-affirming narrative for domestic and allied audiences. TASS reports that Slutsky proposed establishing a federal standard for transport accessibility in Russian regions, providing direct bus routes from small towns and villages to hospitals, schools, and other social facilities. This indicates a domestic socio-economic focus. TASS amplifies Kirill Dmitriev's opinion that the Ukrainian conflict resolution is approaching due to dialogue between US and Russian presidents (Kirill Dmitriev), which is an RF IO message. TASS also reports that director Zhora Kryzhovnikov is on Ukraine's Myrotvorets website, an RF IO message of victimhood. UPDATED: TASS reports that Rosaviatsiya is not considering a ban on listening to audio and watching videos without headphones on planes, which is a domestic social note. TASS shares video messages of Peskov stating that settlement of the situation in Ukraine requires 'difficult dialogue between different sides' and that support for peaceful endeavors is 'complete'. This is a consistent RF diplomatic IO effort.
UAF Internal Affairs: New video from Mekhove (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, HIGH CONFIDENCE), a frontline town, shows civilians struggling with humanitarian aid, generators for power, and prolonged outages of electricity, gas, and communication, highlighting the significant impact of the conflict on civilian life and infrastructure resilience. New images (STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE) confirm that the Ministry of Defense discussed controversial legislative initiatives with parliamentary committees, and that the norm regarding the non-alternativeness of harsh punishment for military personnel will be removed from the draft law. This is a significant development for UAF morale and internal policy. (Олександр Вілкул, HIGH CONFIDENCE) provides a briefing on the results of 06 SEP 25, indicating ongoing local governmental/military reporting in Kryvyi Rih and other areas. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (HIGH CONFIDENCE) confirms a small fundraising effort will begin tomorrow for UAF. Ukrainian GUR head Budanov (РБК-Україна, HIGH CONFIDENCE; Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH CONFIDENCE; Alex Parker Returns, HIGH CONFIDENCE) states Russia can conduct another mobilization, even if it is painful for the RF. UPDATED: TASS reports that servicemen of the 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade of the UAF are massively refusing to advance to forward positions due to lack of logistics and rotation. This is an RF IO message designed to undermine UAF morale.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
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