OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: Russian Federation (RF) forces continue multi-axis ground offensives, with new focus areas emerging southeast of Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast. RF military expert Andrey Marochko (TASS) reports RF forces have begun fighting for the "liberation" of three settlements in this sector. This indicates a continued, and possibly intensified, offensive thrust on the Kupyansk-Sieversk axis. NEW TASS reports RF forces are forming a "fire pocket" for Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) in Konstantinovka, Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), indicating an immediate tactical maneuver to encircle or trap UAF forces (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - as RF claim/IO). RF claims of advances on the left bank of the Volchya River near Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, persist despite UAF resistance (HIGH CONFIDENCE - as RF claim/IO). Intense ground operations persist on the Kupyansk-Sieversk axis, and "Otvazhnye" forces claim intense fighting and destruction of UAF assets near Pokrovsk (Donetsk Oblast). RF special forces are conducting cross-border ground operations in Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts with the stated intent to create a "buffer zone." Deep strikes against Ukrainian energy and defense industries continue, with confirmed power outages in Dnipro due to enemy attacks and a previous ballistic missile strike on the Flextronics plant in Mukachevo confirmed by UAF President Zelenskyy. An industrial fire at a former combine plant in Dnipro continues to burn. Air defense systems are challenged by high-volume, multi-vector drone attacks, with a recent Kyiv air raid alert now cleared. UAF is actively defending across all axes, launching deep strikes on RF territory (Ryazan oil refinery, Anapa radar, Luhansk oil depot, artillery depots in Luhansk), and conducting successful special operations in the Black Sea and Dnipro Delta. UAF claims destruction of a Russian Buk-M2 SAM system and a Buk-M1 SAM system by UAV, and UAF Special Operations forces ("Omega" CSB) report destroying a Russian kamikaze drone. RF FPV drones are actively targeting UAF equipment on the Izium-Slovyansk highway, with claims of increased range making previously safe areas risky, and a burnt bus confirmed as a result of an RF drone strike (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF IO claims liquidation of a Patriot SAM system engineer after a Russian strike, implying a recent successful strike on UAF air defense assets (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). Diplomatic activity remains high; Ukraine seeks accelerated security guarantees, while RF attempts to fracture Western unity through information operations. NATO ISR activity near Kaliningrad/Belarus border indicates heightened vigilance. DPSU warns of potential provocations during "Zapad-2025." Ukraine reports 2577 service members in Russian captivity. UAF Air Force is actively engaged. Ukraine is pursuing forensic and war crimes documentation. RF motorized rifle units of the Vostok Group of Forces are observed honing skills in assaulting mock enemy strongholds in the rear of the SMO zone, indicating preparation for offensive operations.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
Air Operations: Conditions remain favorable for widespread Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) operations, including reconnaissance and strike missions, both day and night. UAF destruction of Buk-M1 and Buk-M2 SAM systems by UAV, and UAF "Omega" CSB destroying a Russian kamikaze drone, indicate continued reliance on and effectiveness of UAS. NEW UAF Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeastern direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates continued clear weather for tactical aviation support to ground operations and ISR. UAF air threat warnings for UAVs in Chernihiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Kyiv Oblasts (including specific warnings for Kyiv and Vasilkiv) indicate continued clear weather for drone operations, including deep penetrations. RF's new "Veter-X" FPV drone with extended range, and claims of serial production of drone engines, underscore a sustained capability for drone operations across varied conditions. Numerous reports of drone activity over RF regions, occupied Crimea, and the Black Sea by both sides confirm favorable conditions for extensive UAS employment. RF footage of drone-filmed artillery strikes (Konstantinovka), building strikes (Kharkiv direction claims), and "Pokrovsk Battle" footage (including thermal imaging) further confirm favorable conditions for UAS operations. RF footage of "Sever-V" brigade conducting nighttime counter-UAS operations against Ukrainian drones, including illumination and artillery, further confirms suitable conditions for both offensive and defensive drone operations during low-light hours. UAF Air Force reports a drone approaching Kyiv from the eastern direction and a UAV from the Black Sea operating towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi Raion, Odesa Oblast, confirming continued suitable conditions for RF drone operations, including deep penetration flights towards the capital and maritime-supported operations. The recent Kyiv air raid alert and subsequent clear signal at 2324Z SEP 25 (HIGH CONFIDENCE) indicates continued suitable conditions for RF aerial threats and UAF air defense operations.
Maritime Operations: Conditions remain suitable for continued maritime drone operations in the Black Sea. RF commissioning of the "Ivan Papanin" for Arctic operations highlights their ongoing naval development, while UAF's agreement to jointly produce maritime drones suggests an increasing focus on this domain. TASS reports on 10 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over the Black Sea confirm continued UAS activity over the maritime domain. UAF Air Force report of a UAV from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast confirms continued suitable conditions for RF maritime drone operations.
Ground Operations: Conditions remain conducive to sustained ground maneuvers across all axes. RF claims of advances in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Donetsk, and cross-border operations in Sumy/Chernihiv, persist. UAF's capture of 26 RF personnel demonstrates effective ground operations. The mine incident in Kherson highlights ongoing hazards. UAF footage of a drone strike on an RF soldier in varied terrain (dry grass/snow-dusted) indicates general operability for UAS in these conditions. RF footage of mortar strikes by Sever Group in a wooded environment indicates conditions for traditional ground combat. RF FPV drone strikes on the Slovyansk-Izium highway, with imagery of a burned bus, confirm ground conditions allow for targeted FPV operations and interdiction. RF video of "Vostok Group" training in a dusty, arid environment confirms conditions are favorable for ground operations, including mobility. RF claims of cutting supply on the Slovyansk-Izium highway and destruction of UAF BBM and personnel in the Kharkiv direction indicate continued ground combat. New RF claims of fighting for three specific settlements southeast of Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, indicate conditions are suitable for localized ground offensives (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - as RF claim/IO). NEW RF reports of forming a "fire pocket" in Konstantinovka, DPR, confirm ground conditions are suitable for localized encirclement tactics (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - as RF claim/IO).
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
RF:
Ground Forces: Continuing multi-axis offensive with reported advances in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts (DeepState), and Donetsk (Markovo, Fedorovka, towards Kramatorsk, and Pokrovsk area). Maintaining pressure on Velikomikhailovka and Orikhiv. Sustained cross-border operations for "buffer zone" creation, with claims of destroying a UAF PVD in Sumy direction (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). New claims of intense fighting and destruction of UAF assets near Pokrovsk ("Otvazhnye" forces) indicate continued offensive pressure. The daily summary from Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 confirms active operations across the front. Motorized rifle units of the Vostok Group of Forces are training in the rear, indicating preparation for future offensive operations. RF claims to be cutting UAF supply along the Slovyansk-Izium highway, and claims destruction of a UAF BBM and personnel in the Kharkiv direction (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). MoD Russia's drone footage explicitly shows strikes on infantry in trenches and an APC, along with references to "thwarting enemy plans." RF military expert Andrey Marochko (TASS) reports RF forces have begun fighting for the "liberation" of three settlements southeast of Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - as RF claim/IO). NEW Marochko (TASS) reports RF forces are forming a "fire pocket" for UAF in Konstantinovka, DPR (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - as RF claim/IO). NEW Uncaptioned video messages from "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) show a trip to fighters and Donetsk residents in a frontline area liberated from "occupants," indicating continued presence in claimed-occupied territories and propaganda efforts to showcase support (HIGH CONFIDENCE - as RF IO).
Air Assets: Sustained tactical aviation activity in the northeast. NEW UAF Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeastern direction (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Actively fielding precision artillery (Krasnopol) on Dnipropetrovsk axis. Air threat warnings for UAVs in Chernihiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Kyiv Oblasts (including specific warnings for Kyiv, Vasilkiv, and a drone approaching Kyiv from the east, and a UAV from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast) indicate active RF drone presence and expanded reach. New "Veter-X" FPV drone with 30km+ range indicates continued investment in advanced drone capabilities. Rostec's announcement of serial production of drone engines confirms a robust and sustained drone program. AFU reports launches of guided aerial bombs in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts, confirming continued RF tactical aviation close air support. TASS reports of 10 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over RF regions and Black Sea, and AV БогомаZ reporting 2 UAVs destroyed over Bryansk, underscore active RF counter-UAS efforts. RF claims liquidation of a Patriot SAM system engineer following a Russian strike, indicating continued targeting of UAF air defense assets (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - as RF claim/IO). The recent Kyiv air raid alert being cleared at 2324Z SEP 25 (KMVA) indicates RF aerial activity occurred over or near Kyiv prior to this time, implying continued RF air asset deployment towards the capital (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Naval Assets: Commissioning of new Arctic vessel "Ivan Papanin." Developing training for unmanned surface vessels (BECs). Maintaining presence in Black Sea, with TASS reporting 10 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over the Black Sea.
Information Operations (IO): Intensified, aggressive IO, including overt dehumanization ("kill Khokhols"), explicit nuclear threats, "liberation" narratives, criminalization of Ukrainian defenders/civilians, efforts to discredit Ukrainian cultural figures/media, attempts to fracture Western unity (Trump/NYT disinformation, Fico's statements, RF claims of anti-Ukrainian sentiment in Poland, Hungary opposing Ukraine's EU accession, Croatia/Italy excluding troops), and leveraging Trump's statements to portray US isolationism and a potential shift in global alliances (Trump considering inviting Putin/Xi to G20 2026, US-Belarus prisoner discussions, Trump calling Lukashenko a "strong and respected leader," Trump's statements on Venezuela, India's oil purchases, and US defense strategy reorientation). TASS reports Trump is considering striking drug cartels in Venezuela, which RF will leverage for IO to portray US aggression and justify its own alliances/actions. IO also includes narratives on domestic issues, soldier support, militarization of education, and historical revisionism. Peskov's announcement of Putin's upcoming "direct line" and press conference is a significant IO effort to project transparency and leadership (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW Maria Zakharova (TASS) claims the "West's approach, which created soft power and tools of influence instead of culture, is its Achilles' heel," and that "Russia needs to follow a 'difficult path' to preserve culture and traditions in opposition to Western approaches." This signals a strong, renewed RF IO push on cultural and value-based narratives, portraying RF as a bastion against perceived Western cultural decadence (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW TASS reports on social fraud, stating that "socially active people aged 30-70, with stable jobs, savings, and positive credit history, most often fall victim to remote theft." This likely serves a dual purpose: a general public safety announcement, but also subtly reinforces a narrative of external threats/unpredictability potentially linked to Ukraine or Western "cyber-aggression" (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Domestic Repression: Increased judicial repression against dissent (Yamal janitor, Kursk scientist sentencing, Kateryna Kotrikadze) and criminalization of LGBT individuals. RF security services are actively disrupting perceived Ukrainian sabotage efforts (Krasnodar). ASTRA reports on "Max" collecting personal data and Chelyabinsk Mayor's office denying a protest due to a typo highlight pervasive surveillance and administrative suppression. "Police of Khabarovsk Territory" promoting "Day of Combating Extremism" reinforces internal security narratives. NEW Yakutia to launch new drone cargo delivery routes for "Air Crossing" pilot project, demonstrating domestic technological development and investment in autonomous systems, which can also have dual-use military applications (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Military-Industrial Base (DIB): Developing training platforms for BECs. Commissioning new Arctic vessel. New "Veter-X" FPV drone with extended range (30km+) indicates continued development of advanced UAS capabilities. Rostec's announcement of serial production of drone engines is a significant DIB development. Putin's orders for PD-26 turbofan development and Roscosmos's commitment to RD-107A production for Soyuz rockets demonstrate long-term DIB planning. NEW Yakutia's "Air Crossing" drone delivery project, while civilian, showcases RF's overall drive in drone technology and infrastructure, which could have spillover benefits for military logistics and development (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Foreign Military Relations: Actively engaging with other nations to deepen military ties (Libya, DPRK, Myanmar, SCO Secretary General visit). DPRK's public statement of full support for RF strengthens this relationship, solidified by Belousov's participation in DPRK's anniversary. RF IO highlighting Venezuela and implying NATO exploiting Finland are subtle cues of RF's global alliances and anti-NATO stance. TASS reports Brazil's Minister of Mining and Energy stated Brazil may use nuclear technology for military purposes, a significant geopolitical development RF will leverage.
UAF:
Defensive Posture: Continuing active defense across all axes, responding to RF air activity, and maintaining a strong defense on the ground, particularly in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts (Volchansk area and the new area southeast of Kupyansk) following reported RF advances. Air Force maintains operational readiness, as evidenced by the NEW report of enemy tactical aviation activity in the northeast. Dnipro has implemented scheduled power outages due to enemy attacks. UAF President Zelenskyy has publicly confirmed a previous Russian missile strike on the Flextronics plant in Mukachevo. Protests in Kyiv against stricter military sentences indicate an internal challenge to soldier welfare and morale. UAF Special Operations forces destroying a Russian kamikaze drone demonstrates active counter-UAS posture. "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports the 1st NGU "Azov" Corps' results of work in the Dobropillya direction. The Kyiv city military administration (KMVA) declared an "all clear" for the air raid alert at 2324Z SEP 25, indicating successful air defense engagement or the departure of an aerial threat (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Special Operations/Deep Strike Capabilities: Demonstrated effective long-range strike capabilities (Luhansk artillery depots). Continuing special reconnaissance and strike operations (GUR in Black Sea, "Buzky Gard" in Dnipro Delta), and effective drone strikes on underground positions ("Shadow" unit) and individual RF soldiers. Demonstrated effective counter-air capability with the destruction of a Buk-M2 SAM system by UAV and a Buk-M1 SAM system. Successful capture of 26 RF personnel.
Strategic Resolve & Diplomacy: Leadership maintains unwavering resolve (Zelenskyy on energy retaliation) and actively engages in high-level diplomatic efforts to secure and sustain international aid. Slovakia's continued rejection of an energy blockade is a positive development. Zelenskyy's opening of the Uzhhorod-Chop railway highlights strategic infrastructure development. UAF Foreign Minister's call with new UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper indicates continued strong bilateral diplomatic ties. NEW Ukrainian Vice Prime Minister Svyrydenko has articulated a key issue for negotiations with Slovakia for the next meeting (HIGH CONFIDENCE). This indicates continued active diplomatic engagement to secure bilateral support.
Resource Management: Significant procurement of drones and transport for military units in Zaporizhzhia demonstrates active efforts. Ukraine developing joint maritime drone production with the Philippines. Government launched a support program for 238 frontline communities for the heating season. RBK-Ukraine reports US is discussing a $100B deal with Ukraine for weapons procurement in exchange for rights to its military developments (HIGH CONFIDENCE - as reported).
Civilian Resilience & Governance: Active construction of underground schools/kindergartens in Zaporizhzhia and regular local defense council briefings (Kryvyi Rih) highlight proactive measures for civilian protection and continuity of governance. Dnipro implementing scheduled power outages demonstrates civil resilience. The protest on Maidan Nezalezhnosti in Kyiv against the military bill represents a significant internal challenge for UAF and civilian leadership.
International:
Diplomatic Momentum: EU and bilateral partners continue to engage with Ukraine. Slovakia's stance against an energy blockade is positive, but PM Fico's general anti-Ukrainian policy remains a concern. Hungary's FM Szijjarto stating opposition to Ukraine's EU accession is a new diplomatic challenge. Croatia and Italy have excluded sending troops to Ukraine. Norway, following the EU, lowered the price cap on Russian oil. Belgium confirmed it will not transfer frozen RF assets to Ukraine. Trump's statements (potential G20 invitation for Putin/Xi, US-Belarus prisoner talks, Lukashenko as strong leader) are being heavily amplified by RF IO to undermine Western unity. TASS reports Trump is considering strikes on Venezuelan drug cartels, further adding to the narrative of US unilateralism which RF can exploit. NEW Ukrainian Vice Prime Minister Svyrydenko has articulated a key issue for negotiations with Slovakia for the next meeting (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Regional Tensions (INCREASED): Medvedev's visit to Svetogorsk on the Finnish border and warnings underscore heightened tensions on NATO's Eastern Flank. Medvedev's dismissal of security guarantees for Ukraine is a continued attempt to undermine international support.
UK Cabinet Reshuffle: Change in UK Foreign Secretary (Yvette Cooper), who has made her first call to Ukraine, indicating continued priority for Ukraine.
RF Deepening Ties (NEW): RF meetings with DPRK, Myanmar defence officials, and SCO Secretary General indicate efforts to strengthen military-technical cooperation with non-Western partners. DPRK's public statement of full support for RF strengthens this relationship, and Belousov's participation in DPRK's anniversary reception further solidifies this alliance.
International Aid/Sanctions (MIXED): Belgium's decision not to transfer frozen RF assets to Ukraine is a setback. Norway's lowering of the price cap on Russian oil indicates continued economic pressure. RBK-Ukraine reporting on potential $100B US deal could significantly increase military aid. TASS reports the US may supply Ukraine with ERAM air-launched missiles in October, indicating continued military aid (HIGH CONFIDENCE - as TASS report/IO).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
Persistent Ground Offensive & Consolidation: RF maintains capability for sustained, multi-axis ground offensives (Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Donetsk axes, including Pokrovsk area). New claims of fighting for three settlements southeast of Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) and advances near Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE - as RF claim/IO), suggest renewed tactical ground offensive capabilities. NEW The reported formation of a "fire pocket" in Konstantinovka, DPR, demonstrates RF capability for localized tactical encirclement and attrition (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). Demonstrated ability to destroy UAF defensive positions (dugout/bunker claims, PVD in Zelenaya Dibrova claims). RF FPV drone strikes on Slovyansk-Izium highway demonstrate tactical precision strike capability for ground targets, reinforced by imagery of a burned bus.
Long-Range Strike & Air Presence: RF retains significant capability for deep strikes against critical infrastructure (Dnipro industrial fire, confirmed power outages due to enemy attacks, Mukachevo Flextronics plant) and sustains tactical aviation activity, including guided aerial bombs in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk. NEW UAF Air Force report of active enemy tactical aviation in the northeast confirms this capability (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Persistent drone strike capabilities are evident across Ukraine, including deep penetration flights towards Kyiv (drone approaching Kyiv from east, warning for Vasilkiv) and maritime-supported ISR (UAV from Black Sea towards Odesa). The new "Veter-X" FPV drone with 30km+ range significantly extends RF's tactical ISR and precision strike capabilities. Rostec's announcement of serial production of drone engines ensures sustained long-range strike and ISR drone capabilities. RF claims liquidation of a Patriot SAM system engineer following a Russian strike, if true, demonstrates RF's capability to conduct successful precision strikes against high-value UAF air defense targets (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - as RF claim/IO).
Advanced Information & Psychological Warfare: RF continues to demonstrate a high capability for aggressive and inflammatory IO, including explicit nuclear threats, militarization of youth, "liberation" narratives, criminalization of Ukrainian defenders/civilians, efforts to control domestic information space, and attempts to sow disunity among Western allies (e.g., leveraging Trump's statements on G20, US-Belarus, Lukashenko, Venezuela, India, and US defense strategy; Polish FM Sikorski's statements). TASS reports Trump is considering striking Venezuelan drug cartels, further enhancing RF's ability to leverage US actions for IO portraying US aggression. Putin's upcoming "direct line" and press conference will be a major platform for this (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW Maria Zakharova's statements on Western "soft power" and the need for RF to preserve its culture indicate a renewed capability for deep, value-based propaganda to justify RF actions and solidify domestic support (HIGH CONFIDENCE). The TASS report on social fraud likely contributes to a broader IO narrative of external threats/instability (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Internal Control & Repression: RF is highly capable of controlling its domestic information environment, suppressing dissent (Kursk scientist, Kateryna Kotrikadze, LGBT repression), and utilizing administrative mechanisms to quash protests. "Max" data collection reinforces pervasive surveillance. NEW Yakutia's drone delivery project (civilian) highlights broader state capability and investment in drone technology which can have dual-use applications and reinforce a narrative of RF technological self-sufficiency (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Military-Industrial Base (DIB): Rostec's plans for a wide-body aircraft, Putin's directives on PD-26 engine and Roscosmos's RD-107A production plans further solidify long-term DIB expansion. NEW Yakutia's drone delivery project indicates ongoing development and deployment of drone technology within RF, which, while civilian, could contribute to military logistics and technical expertise (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Foreign Military Relations: Actively engaging with non-Western nations to deepen military ties (Libya, DPRK, Myanmar, SCO). DPRK's public statement of full support and Belousov's visit solidify this alliance. TASS reports Brazil's statement on potential military nuclear technology use presents a new opportunity for influence. Trump's consideration of inviting Putin/Xi to G20 2026 is a significant foreign relations opportunity for RF to break isolation.
Intentions:
Achieve Territorial Objectives: RF intends to continue offensive operations to secure and consolidate control over claimed and newly occupied territories, especially in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts. The new claim of fighting for three settlements southeast of Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, suggests an immediate intent to gain ground in this sector (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). NEW The reported formation of a "fire pocket" in Konstantinovka, DPR, clearly indicates an immediate intent to encircle and destroy UAF forces in that area (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). Establishing "buffer zones" along border regions remains a priority.
Degrade UAF Combat Effectiveness & Morale: RF aims to deplete UAF resources through attrition (e.g., FPV drone strikes on Slovyansk-Izium highway, confirmed burnt bus), disrupt logistics, and undermine public morale through strikes (industrial infrastructure, Mukachevo plant, Dnipro fire) and aggressive propaganda. Targeting high-value assets like Patriot SAM system engineers (claimed) aligns with this intent. Persistent drone activity towards Kyiv demonstrates intent to stress air defenses and create psychological pressure.
Deter Western Intervention & Support & Fracture Alliances: RF will continue to use escalatory rhetoric (e.g., nuclear threats, "legitimate targets"), IO campaigns (leveraging Trump's statements to portray US isolationism, highlight Western disunity through Fico/Hungary/Croatia/Italy, and portray US aggression with Venezuela strikes), and border provocations ("Zapad-2025") to deter Western military aid and direct involvement. NEW Zakharova's cultural rhetoric signals an intent to drive a wedge between Western and non-Western nations by appealing to traditional values and anti-Western sentiment (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Maintain Domestic Control & Legitimacy: RF will tightly control its internal information space, suppress dissent, and project an image of self-sufficiency and moral justification for its actions. Putin's upcoming "direct line" and press conference serve this purpose (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW The TASS report on social fraud aims to project an image of a proactive government concerned with its citizens' welfare, while subtly reinforcing narratives of external threats (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Counter UAF Special Operations & Deep Strikes: RF intends to actively counter Ukrainian special operations and maritime drone activities, particularly in the Black Sea and coastal areas (UAV towards Odesa Oblast), and prevent cross-border incursions and deep strikes on their territory (e.g., "Sever-V" brigade counter-UAS operations).
Reinforce Borders Against NATO: Medvedev's statements indicate a clear intention to enhance border security and adjust military posture along its borders with Finland and the Baltic states due to perceived NATO threat.
Long-term DIB Development: RF intends to continue long-term strategic aerospace and defense industrial base expansion.
Courses of Action (COAs):
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action):
Sustained, Attritional Ground Offensives with Emphasis on New Axes, Localized Encirclement, Consolidation, and Buffer Zone Creation, Coupled with Expanded Industrial/Energy Strikes: RF will continue methodical, attritional ground assaults in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, alongside persistent pressure on Siversk, Novopavlovka, Kupyansk, and the Pokrovsk area. Reported advances in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, including near Volchansk and the new claims of fighting for three settlements southeast of Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, indicate an expansion of offensive axes (HIGH CONFIDENCE). NEW RF will actively attempt to create "fire pockets" or localized encirclements, as reported in Konstantinovka, DPR (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Active cross-border special forces operations will intensify to create "buffer zones." Deep strikes against critical infrastructure, including industrial targets (Dnipro fire/outages, Mukachevo plant) and energy facilities, will continue using various means (FABs, precision artillery, drones). RF FPV drone operations will continue to target UAF positions and logistics on key axes like Slovyansk-Izium highway (confirmed burnt bus). Confidence: HIGH
Intensified Hybrid Warfare with Deepening Nuclear Coercion, Aggressive Dehumanization, Cultural Warfare, and Legal/Information Warfare to Fracture Western Unity and Project Strength, and Strengthen Non-Western Alliances: RF will amplify highly escalatory rhetoric (nuclear threats, "legitimate targets"), coupled with increased cyberattacks and border provocations. Propaganda will intensify to dehumanize Ukrainians, militarize RF youth, criminalize Ukrainian defenders/civilians, and sow disunity among Western allies (e.g., leveraging Trump's statements regarding G20, US-Belarus, Lukashenko, Venezuela, India's oil, US defense strategy, and considering strikes in Venezuela). NEW RF IO will heavily lean into cultural warfare, portraying the West as culturally bankrupt and RF as a protector of traditional values, as articulated by Zakharova (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF will continue to restrict internal information flow and use domestic arrests/events as IO tools (e.g., social fraud reports to subtly blame external factors). Concurrently, RF will deepen military-technical cooperation with non-Western partners (DPRK, Myanmar, SCO, potentially Brazil) and use disinformation to undermine Western credibility. Putin's upcoming "direct line" and press conference will be a key platform for this (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Confidence: HIGH
Increased Tactical Aviation Activity and Enhanced Counter-Special Operations/ISR, with Reinforced Border Defenses and Expanded Naval/Aerospace DIB Capabilities: RF will maintain high tactical aviation ISR and strike operations, particularly in the eastern and northeastern sectors (e.g., FABs in Sumy, guided aerial bombs in Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk). NEW Active enemy tactical aviation in the northeast will continue (HIGH CONFIDENCE). RF will also focus on detecting and neutralizing UAF special operations and maritime drone activities in the Black Sea and coastal areas (UAV towards Odesa Oblast), as well as enhance counter-infiltration measures along border regions (Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv). New air threat warnings for Kyiv and surrounding Oblasts confirm an immediate and sustained commitment to these aerial operations. The "Veter-X" FPV drone with extended range will significantly enhance ISR capabilities. RF will implement Medvedev's stated intention to reinforce its borders with Finland and the Baltic states, as part of "Zapad-2025" preparations. RF will actively intercept UAF drones, as claimed by "Sever V" mobile groups, and continue serial production of drone engines. Long-term strategic aerospace DIB expansion will continue, including civilian drone technology development that may have dual-use applications (Yakutia). Confidence: HIGH
Most dangerous enemy courses of action (MDCOA):
Tactical Nuclear Demonstration: Given recent explicit rhetoric, a low-yield tactical nuclear demonstration (either a test or a strike in an unpopulated area of Ukraine) remains a low-probability, but extremely high-impact, MDCOA. Brazil's statement on potential military nuclear technology use, while not directly tied to RF, contributes to a global environment where nuclear rhetoric and proliferation concerns are heightened, increasing the overall low-probability but high-impact risk of nuclear-related events. Confidence: LOW (but extreme impact)
Coordinated Hybrid Attack against NATO Critical Infrastructure: Leveraging the "Zapad-2025" timeframe and Medvedev's rhetoric, RF orchestrates a significant, multi-domain hybrid attack (e.g., large-scale cyber-physical attack, sabotage against energy or communications infrastructure) against a NATO member state on the Eastern Flank, designed to test Article 5 and create severe disruption without direct kinetic military engagement. Confidence: MEDIUM
Massed Air/Missile Strike on Major Urban Center with Civilian/Industrial Infrastructure as Primary Target: RF conducts a coordinated, large-scale air and missile strike utilizing multiple vectors against a major Ukrainian urban center, specifically targeting residential areas, hospitals, or critical industrial/energy facilities (e.g., Dnipro fire/outages, Mukachevo plant) to maximize civilian casualties and induce panic. Persistent drone activity towards Kyiv (drone approaching Kyiv from east, warning for Vasilkiv) and the claim of a Patriot SAM system engineer liquidation (if accurate) could indicate a softening of UAF air defense, making a massed strike more feasible. The recent Kyiv air raid alert underscores the persistent threat of such a scenario. Confidence: MEDIUM
Timeline estimates and decision points:
Immediate (0-24 hours):
RF Decision Point: Assess UAF responses to ground offensives, especially reported advances in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv, claimed advances near Volchansk, new fighting southeast of Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, and the formation of a "fire pocket" in Konstantinovka, DPR. Continue to utilize dehumanizing propaganda, tactical aviation activity (FABs in Sumy, active tactical aviation in the northeast, new air threat warnings for Kyiv, Vasilkiv, Odesa Oblast from Black Sea, widespread drone activity, and the prior Kyiv air raid alert), and precision artillery/drone strikes (Slovyansk-Izium FPV strikes, confirmed burnt bus, Pokrovsk claims, Kharkiv BBM/personnel destruction). Continue to leverage Trump's statements (Venezuela strikes, G20, US-Belarus, Lukashenko, India oil, US defense strategy, executive order on sanctions, G20 invitation considerations) for IO. Prepare for and leverage Peskov's announcement of Putin's upcoming "direct line" and press conference for IO.Intensify cultural warfare narratives via Zakharova and other channels.
UAF Decision Point: Publicly condemn RF youth militarization propaganda, criminalization of POWs/civilians, and Medvedev's escalatory rhetoric, especially Putin's threats against EU troops. Expedite BDA for Dnipro industrial fire and allocate air defense assets accordingly, prioritizing Kyiv and Vyshgorod districts immediately given new drone threats, and Odesa coastal area. Reinforce defenses on new RF offensive axes (Zaporizhzhia front, Volchansk area, and the three settlements southeast of Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast mentioned in the new TASS report), and around Konstantinovka (DPR) to counter the "fire pocket" formation, and against cross-border incursions. Maintain high alert for tactical aviation in the east/northeast, specifically given the new UAF Air Force report. Leverage successful capture of 26 RF personnel and drone strike on RF soldier in IO. Address the protest in Kyiv regarding military sentences carefully. Immediately engage with the new UK Foreign Secretary, Yvette Cooper. Continue engagement with Slovakia, leveraging Svyrydenko's announced key negotiation points.
International Decision Point: NATO and EU states to issue strong, unified condemnations of RF's dehumanizing rhetoric, nuclear threats, "legitimate target" warnings, Medvedev's aggressive border rhetoric, and RF's deepening military ties with DPRK/Myanmar. Coordinate responses to Trump's statements to maintain a unified Western stance. Condemn RF ground advances in Kharkiv Oblast (e.g., southeast of Kupyansk) and the tactical maneuver in Konstantinovka, DPR. Condemn RF's escalating cultural warfare.
Short-Term (24-72 hours):
RF Decision Point: Evaluate Western response to dehumanization and nuclear threats. Continue "Zapad-2025" preparations. Reinforce air defense networks after Buk M1 and Buk-M2 loss. Continue to deepen foreign military relations. Continue Vostok Group training and push ground offensives, especially around Kharkiv (including Volchansk and southeast of Kupyansk) and Donetsk (including the Konstantinovka "fire pocket") and Zaporizhzhia. Intensify efforts to disrupt UAF logistics (FPV drone strikes on Izium-Slovyansk highway).
UAF Decision Point: Actively counter RF dehumanization narratives, including cultural warfare, with transparent communication on war crimes and international law. Intensify diplomatic efforts for DIB funding and air defense. Continue to highlight operational successes and soldier resilience. Develop specific counter-IO strategies to address RF claims and Trump's statements. Continue drone procurement and integration. Prepare for future ERAM missile integration.
International Decision Point: EU to make progress on new sanctions package. Member states to coordinate responses to potential Zapad-2025 provocations. International bodies to condemn RF's recruitment practices, domestic repression, militarization of education, and deepening military cooperation with rogue states. Reaffirm strong, unified stance against RF.
Mid-Term (1-2 weeks):
RF Decision Point: Execute "Zapad-2025" exercises. Consolidate gains and administrative control in occupied Ukrainian territories and buffer zones, including recently advanced areas in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv (Volchansk and southeast of Kupyansk), and on the Zaporizhzhia front and around Konstantinovka. Continue to develop long-term DIB capabilities (e.g., civilian drone projects with military potential). Sustain pressure on UAF logistics and industrial targets. Continue to use Trump's statements and actions as a key vector in IO.
UAF Decision Point: Implement enhanced anti-corruption measures and public transparency. Integrate new Western military aid (if secured) and indigenous production. Prioritize development of counter-IO strategies to address RF narratives, Trump's statements, and RF's cultural warfare. Continue efforts to harden civilian infrastructure. Finalize legislative review of Bill 13452.
International Decision Point: NATO to reassess its Eastern Flank posture post-Zapad-2025. Countries with conditional troop deployment stances may engage in further discussions. Western nations should publicly address RF's internal repression tactics and its dehumanizing rhetoric. Support further international collaboration on war crimes documentation.
INTELLIGENCE GAPS:
CRITICAL (PERSISTING): What is the definitive cause and BDA of the major industrial fire in Dnipro? Is this the start of a new RF campaign targeting industrial infrastructure, specifically industrial production and storage? (REMAINS CRITICAL - cause unconfirmed, but target type confirmed by RF sources)
HIGH (PERSISTING): What is the specific impact of RF interdiction efforts on the Slovyansk-Izium highway on UAF logistics? Is RF achieving sustained disruption or merely localized harassment? (NEW - but information from DeepState/Colonelcassad confirms active FPV strikes, narrowing the gap on RF capability but not full impact)
HIGH (PERSISTING): What is the definitive NATO/Polish assessment of RF intent behind the 04 SEP drone violation of Polish airspace? What specific response actions have been taken?
HIGH (NEW): Can the RF claims of intensified strikes and advances on the Zaporizhzhia front be independently verified with BDA? What is the specific scope and location of these alleged advances?
HIGH (NEW): What are the precise details and long-term implications of the reported $100B US deal with Ukraine, particularly concerning the transfer of military development rights?
HIGH (NEW): What is the verified status and impact of the protest on Maidan Nezalezhnosti in Kyiv against the military bill? What is the government's official response, and how will it affect soldier morale and public trust?
HIGH (NEW): Can the RF claims from "Sever-V" brigade videos of successfully defending against Ukrainian drones flying towards Russia be independently verified with BDA? What types of drones were involved and what was the extent of the interceptions?
HIGH (NEW): What is the verified tactical impact of RF drone strikes shown in the Colonelcassad video (00:03:01) against "enemy shelters," "enemy personnel," "Baba Yaga" drones, "enemy trucks," and "enemy artillery"?
HIGH (NEW): Can the RF claims of advances on the left bank of the Volchya River near Volchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, be independently verified with BDA? What is the scope and significance of these claimed advances?
HIGH (NEW): Is the RF claim of liquidation of a Patriot SAM system engineer following a Russian strike verifiable? If so, what is the specific impact on UAF air defense capabilities in the affected region?
HIGH (NEW): What is the confirmed status of the burnt bus on the Izium-Slovyansk highway, and what additional intelligence can be gathered from the imagery (e.g., vehicle type, likely cargo, specific munition impact characteristics)?
HIGH (NEW): What is the precise content and full context of the Eurocommission's "positive reaction" to Putin's statement on Ukraine's potential EU future, beyond the TASS reporting? What is the official EU stance on this specific statement?
HIGH (NEW): What are the verified timelines and conditions for the potential US supply of ERAM air-launched missiles to Ukraine?
HIGH (NEW): What is the official US position on Trump's statement regarding considering inviting Russia to the G20 summit in Miami, and how will the current administration respond?
HIGH (NEW): Can the TASS report by military expert Andrey Marochko, claiming RF forces have begun fighting for three settlements southeast of Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, be independently verified? What are the names of these settlements and what is the current tactical situation?
HIGH (NEW): What are the specific objectives and expected outcomes of Trump's consideration to strike drug cartels in Venezuela, and how will this impact RF's foreign relations and IO regarding Venezuela?
HIGH (NEW): Can RF claims from Marochko (TASS) regarding the formation of a "fire pocket" in Konstantinovka, DPR, be independently verified? What is the current tactical situation in Konstantinovka, and what UAF units are potentially affected?
HIGH (NEW): What is the specific "key issue" identified by Ukrainian Vice Prime Minister Svyrydenko for the next round of negotiations with Slovakia? What are the potential outcomes or points of contention?
MEDIUM: What are the detailed capabilities of the RF "Vostok Group" as demonstrated in recent training, and what does this indicate for their future deployment and mission profiles?
MEDIUM: Can the RF claims of destroying UAF BBM and personnel in the Kharkiv direction be independently verified? What is the specific location and significance of this claimed strike?
MEDIUM (PERSISTING): Can the effects of SBU "Operation Spiderweb" be independently verified? What is the quantifiable impact on RF strike sortie rates or effectiveness?
MEDIUM (NEW): What are the verified range and payload capacity of RF's new 3D-printed drone munitions as showcased by "Two Majors"? How widespread is their deployment?
MEDIUM (NEW): What is the specific impact of Trump's statements on the "Department of War," Lukashenko, Venezuela, G20 attendance, India's oil purchases, US-Belarus prisoner releases, and his executive order on sanctions, on international diplomatic efforts and Western unity, beyond initial RF IO amplification?
MEDIUM (NEW): What is the verified context and full content of Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski's statement on Ukraine's borders, and what is its official interpretation by Warsaw?
MEDIUM (NEW): What is the specific intent and timeline behind Brazil's stated consideration of using nuclear technology for military purposes? What are the immediate and long-term implications for regional and global security?
MEDIUM (NEW): What are the specific objectives and expected outcomes of the SCO Secretary General's visit to Moscow in November, particularly regarding economic cooperation?
MEDIUM (NEW): What specific cultural narratives and themes will RF leverage following Zakharova's statements on "preserving culture and traditions in opposition to Western approaches"? What are the key target audiences for this cultural warfare?
MEDIUM (NEW): What is the broader impact of Yakutia's "Air Crossing" drone delivery pilot project on RF's national drone strategy and potential dual-use military applications?
LOW: What are the specific locations and activities of "PMC Pegov" mentioned by Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition?
LOW (NEW): What is the detailed composition and effective range of the new RF FPV drone systems, reportedly with increased range, operating on the Izium-Slovyansk highway?
LOW (NEW): What is the verified status and impact of the reported TCC car theft incident in Odesa? Is it an isolated event or indicative of broader issues?
LOW (NEW): What is the specific public and military morale impact of Ukraine losing 0-2 to France in football?
PERSISTING: What is the definitive ground truth of RF control in Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk) and Novoselovka (Zaporizhzhia)?
ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS:
Immediate & Robust Counter-Propaganda Against Dehumanization, Criminalization, Alliance Fracture, and Non-Western Alignment; Counter RF Cultural Warfare: Launch a comprehensive, international public diplomacy campaign to expose and condemn RF's militarization of youth, dehumanization of Ukrainians, criminalization of captured Ukrainian defenders/civilians, their efforts to sow discord within the Western alliance (e.g., Fico's statements, Trump's G20 statements, US-Belarus talks, Lukashenko, India oil, US defense strategy, Venezuela, and considering strikes in Venezuela), and their deepening military ties with rogue states (DPRK, Myanmar, Brazil, SCO). This campaign must highlight war crimes, violations of international law, and psychological warfare implications. Immediately counter RF's graphic battlefield IO designed to demoralize UAF forces. Develop specific counter-narratives to the "Department of War" rebranding and Trump's positive statements on Lukashenko and Venezuela. Utilize Sybiha's diplomatic overture to Szijjarto as evidence of Ukraine's commitment to dialogue. Counter RF IO claims regarding Patriot SAM engineer liquidation and new advances near Volchansk. Actively counter RF's domestic IO, such as Kremlin award ceremonies and the subtle narratives in the social fraud report. Develop and immediately deploy messaging to counter RF's escalating cultural warfare, as articulated by Zakharova, highlighting democratic values, freedom, and international cooperation against RF's authoritarian narratives.Develop messaging to counter the narrative of legitimacy and stability projected by Putin's upcoming "direct line" and press conference.(CRITICAL)
Enhanced Air Defense & ISR for Dnipro, Kyiv, Eastern/Northeastern/Southern Axes, Odesa Coastal Area, and Konstantinovka; Exploit RF Air Defense Gaps; Prioritize Counter-Artillery & Demining: Immediately prioritize additional mobile air defense systems and advanced ISR assets to protect Dnipro, Kyiv, and other critical industrial/energy infrastructure given recent fires/outages and drone threats (Kyiv, Vasilkiv, Odesa, widespread). Bolster air defense and Counter-UAS capabilities on eastern and northeastern axes in response to increased RF tactical aviation activity (confirmed by UAF Air Force report) and cross-border operations, especially in light of reported RF advances in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts (Volchansk area, and the new claims of fighting for settlements southeast of Kupyansk). Special attention must be given to countering RF's new long-range FPV drone ("Veter-X") and existing FPV activity on the Slovyansk-Izium highway (confirmed burnt bus). Investigate the veracity of RF claims regarding the liquidation of a Patriot SAM system engineer and, if confirmed, conduct an immediate BDA. Immediately assess and reinforce UAF positions in Konstantinovka, DPR, to counter the reported "fire pocket" formation and prevent encirclement. Continue to prioritize counter-battery fire. Immediately allocate extensive resources for demining and UXO clearance in liberated areas. (CRITICAL)
Accelerate Counter-Special Operations, Maritime/Riverine Security, and Border/Logistical Defense on Eastern Flank: Increase ISR and rapid response capabilities along the Black Sea coast and in the Dnipro Delta to counter RF naval drone threats and protect UAF special operations. Reinforce border security in Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts (including the Volchansk area, and the new area southeast of Kupyansk) with additional personnel, ISR, and rapid response units to counter RF buffer zone efforts and interdict sabotage groups. Prioritize ISR and interdiction efforts against RF attempts to disrupt logistics along key routes like the Slovyansk-Izium highway. Intensify counter-offensive operations on the Zaporizhzhia front to counter reported RF advances. (HIGH)
Sustain Diplomatic Pressure for DIB Funding and Security Guarantees; Expedite Drone Agreement & Maritime Drone Collaboration; Leverage Infrastructure Development: Leverage recent high-level diplomatic engagements (US drone agreement, Zelenskyy-Fico, UAF-Philippines maritime drone collaboration, new UK FM call, Svyrydenko's announced negotiations with Slovakia) to secure concrete commitments for long-term funding and technology transfer for Ukraine's defense industrial base. Push for expedited security guarantees, working to mitigate the impact of Fico's statements while highlighting his positive stance against an energy blockade. The US drone agreement is a critical step and should be finalized swiftly. Publicly promote the opening of the Uzhhorod-Chop railway. Carefully manage discussions surrounding the reported $100B US deal. Continue active diplomatic engagement with Hungary. Utilize Trump's announcement of the G20 summit in Miami as a platform for Ukraine to engage globally. Closely monitor and coordinate diplomatic responses to Brazil's statements on potential military nuclear technology use. Actively engage with the Eurocommission to clarify any statements regarding Ukraine's EU future. Leverage the potential US ERAM missile supply as a tangible sign of sustained international support. Proactively engage with allies to counter Trump's consideration of inviting Russia to the G20 summit. (HIGH)
Strengthen Public Trust Through Transparency, Governance, and POW Advocacy; Address Internal Military Justice Concerns: Continue to address internal governance challenges and pursue anti-corruption efforts transparently. Advocate vigorously through international legal channels for the proper treatment and exchange of all Ukrainian prisoners of war. Publicly support and showcase local initiatives like underground schools and community defense efforts. Engage in transparent public dialogue and legislative review regarding Bill 13452 (stricter military sentences) to address soldier and public concerns. Publicly address and manage the TCC car theft incident transparently. Engage directly with the organizers and participants of the Maidan Nezalezhnosti protest to maintain unity and address potential RF IO exploitation. (MEDIUM)
