OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: RF ground offensive in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts continues to be a primary concern, with RF forces reinforcing pressure on Velikomikhailovka and Orikhiv following claimed "liberations" of Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk) and Novoselovka (Zaporizhzhia). RF has also claimed the liberation of Markovo and Fedorovka in DNR, indicating continued ground pressure in the Donetsk sector. TASS further clarifies the RF advance from Markovo is "towards Kramatorsk." Intense ground operations persist on the Kupyansk-Sieversk axis, with RF pushing for control of Kupyansk. RF deep strikes continue to target Ukrainian energy and defense industries (Khmelnytskyi, Sumy, Lozova, Dnipro, Odesa), leading to civilian casualties and significant infrastructure damage. A ballistic missile strike in Chernihiv Oblast against a humanitarian demining mission has been confirmed. Air defense remains challenged by high-volume, multi-vector drone attacks, particularly in Dnipro, Sumy, and Chernihiv Oblasts. UAF is actively defending across all axes, launching deep strikes on RF territory (Ryazan oil refinery, Anapa radar, Luhansk oil depot), and conducting successful special operations in the Black Sea. Diplomatic activity remains high, with Ukraine seeking accelerated security guarantees and RF attempting to fracture Western unity through information operations. NATO ISR activity near Kaliningrad/Belarus border indicates heightened regional vigilance. The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine (DPSU) warns of potential provocations during the upcoming "Zapad-2025" exercises.
NEW DEVELOPMENTS (1100Z - 1130Z SEP 25):
- RF Ground Operations (Donetsk Sector - Kramatorsk Direction): TASS, citing Russian security forces, reports that the RF Armed Forces, after liberating Markovo in DNR, "made a dash towards Kramatorsk." This significantly clarifies RF intent and direction of attack in the Donetsk region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- RF Air Attacks (Odesa Oblast): "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims RF strikes hit "UAF deployment locations, trained by foreign mercenaries, including from Britain and Romania, in Odesa Oblast." This indicates continued RF deep strikes targeting perceived foreign influence and military training, and points to ongoing engagement in Odesa region. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
- UAF Air Threat (Kursk Ballistic Missile): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issued a ballistic missile threat from Kursk, which was later cancelled. This highlights the persistent threat of ballistic missile attacks from RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- UAF Air Threat (Sumy High-Speed Target): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also reported a high-speed target moving towards the Sumy border region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- RF Ground Operations (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): "Операция Z" (Русской Весны) reports on RF drone operators "smoking out militants in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast," claiming successful targeting. This supports previous reports of RF advances and ongoing combat in the Dnipropetrovsk region. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
- RF Internal Security (Poland - Spy Arrest): TASS reports the Belarusian Foreign Ministry protested to the Polish Chargé d'Affaires after the detention of a "Polish spy." This is an RF/Belarusian IO effort to portray Poland as a hostile actor and undermine Polish credibility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- RF IO (Poland - Trump): TASS reports Polish PM Tusk does not regret calling Trump a "Russian agent," though he finds him a "demanding and difficult partner." This reflects ongoing political tensions and divisions within the Western alliance, which RF IO will continue to exploit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- RF Air Operations (Buffer Zone - Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv): "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" publishes a video claiming RF drone operators are "systematically working to create a buffer zone" in border areas of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts. Targets include UAV control points, mortars, temporary deployment points (PVDs), transport, and personnel. The report also highlights the impending loss of foliage as natural cover. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- UAF Drone Capabilities (Zaporizhzhia Front): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 showcases a significant stockpile of FPV and reconnaissance drones, emphasizing their role in reconnaissance, attack, and effectiveness. This indicates continued UAF adaptation and investment in drone warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- UAF Tactical Engagements (Pokrovsk Direction): STERNENKO posts video of 32nd Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBR) "UMBRELLA" engaging enemy positions with drones in the Pokrovsk direction, showing explosions and incapacitated personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- UAF Tactical Engagements (Malaya Tokmachka): ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 publishes drone footage of the 118th Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBR) destroying RF forces during an assault on Malaya Tokmachka, showing a tank being struck and exploding. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- UAF State Border Guard Service (Sumy Oblast): Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of DPSU personnel in Sumy Oblast under apparent artillery fire, highlighting their continued active engagement in border defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- RF Internal Affairs (Orenburg - FSB Detention): ASTRA reports FSB detained a store employee in Orenburg on suspicion of "sabotage." This indicates continued RF internal security crackdowns on perceived dissidents/saboteurs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- RF Military Aid (Drones to Airborne Unit): "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shows soldiers from the 8th Airborne Assault Regiment receiving two DJI Mavic drones, expressing gratitude. This highlights RF reliance on commercial drones and unofficial procurement channels. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- RF IO (Ukraine Casualty Figures): Басурин о главном circulates video footage of large military cemeteries in Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Lviv, with a caption "Died for Bandera's trash" and claiming the scale of burials "clearly does not correspond to Zelenskyy's statements about minimal losses." This is a significant RF IO effort to undermine Ukrainian morale and government credibility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- UAF Civil Resilience (Zaporizhzhia Underground School): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 showcases meal preparation and serving in a Zaporizhzhia "underground" school, highlighting efforts to maintain normalcy and safety for children amidst conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- International Diplomacy (Ukraine-EU): РБК-Україна reports the President of the European Council stated EU accession talks for Ukraine must continue despite Hungary's blocking, reaffirming EU commitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- RF Drone Detection System: Colonelcassad reports that the ERA-GLONASS based UAV recognition system is ready to cover the entire Far East, indicating RF investment in domestic counter-UAS capabilities, albeit in a non-frontline region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
- RF Internet Access (Restrictions): Colonelcassad reports that Russians will get access to popular internet services during restrictions, provided by operators in pilot mode (MinTsifry). This suggests ongoing state control over information access. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)