Situation Report

SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - 042200Z SEP 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: RF deep strikes continue to target Ukraine's defense industry and railway infrastructure, with a claimed strategic strike against a UAV/Artillery electronics enterprise in Khmelnytskyi. Civilian targeting remains high, with confirmed deadly artillery/FPV drone strikes on Kostiantynivka (including a hospital and nearby village, resulting in 2 fatalities in Illinivka), sustained attacks on the Nikopol region (Nikopol, Marhanetska, Myrivska, Pokrovska, Chervonohryhorivska communities), and Kharkiv Oblast, and new casualties in Zaporizhzhia (total 4 wounded), Orikhiv (2 wounded), and Druzhkivka (7 wounded), as well as two killed and two wounded in Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast. Ballistic missile threats are active, with new alerts for Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, and Sumy, including high-speed targets on Kyiv. A ballistic missile strike in Chernihiv Oblast specifically targeted employees of a humanitarian demining mission, resulting in one fatality and five wounded, which RF now claims was a UAF UAV launch point destroyed by an Iskander. Ground operations are intensely focused on Sieversk and Kupyansk. RF continues to claim significant gains and even UAF surrenders in Kupyansk, while UAF actively denies these claims and demonstrates successful counter-actions; DeepState confirms RF presence and infiltration attempts, though UAF maintains RF lacks "firm control" over the city center. RF milblogger claims report children being used for sabotage by Ukraine, a significant and dangerous escalation of IO targeting. RF claims "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (with video evidence from "Vostok" Group of Forces and Colonelcassad) and Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (MoD RF claim via TASS and Voenkor Kotenok). Colonelcassad claims "Vostok" Group of Forces has "completely liberated" DNR territory and is now advancing into Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. TASS reports Saldo's claim of RF maintaining control over Dnipro delta islands in Kherson Oblast. RF also claims new assaults on Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), supported by UAV footage. RF also claims to have neutralized a Bradley IFV and a field ammunition depot with a Fagot ATGM, and to have detained an SBU agent in Kherson Oblast engaged in espionage. UAF reports the destruction of an S-300V SAM system in the Zaporizhzhia direction. UAF demonstrates tactical innovation with ground robotic complexes and EW-resistant FPV drones, secures additional air defense from Nordic/Baltic countries, and maintains significant domestic artillery/drone production. Ukrainian company Fire Point announces development of ballistic missiles (FP-7, FP-9) and air defense systems. Diplomatic and information warfare efforts continue, with UAF securing further Western support and RF attempting to sow discord and amplify anti-Western narratives. Putin concluded his China visit, making several statements regarding Ukraine, NATO, and economic cooperation with China, projecting a dual message of "peace" vs. "military solution." RF is actively conducting artillery strikes in the Kharkiv direction, with confirmed casualties. NATO ISR aircraft activity is reported near Kaliningrad/Belarus border, indicating heightened regional vigilance. European leaders, including Zelenskyy and Macron, are scheduled for a call with Trump, highlighting continued high-level diplomatic engagement. RF IO is heavily pushing narratives of Ukrainian corruption. New RF drone group activity in Chernihiv region, southwestern direction. UAF has successfully downed a "Gerbera with a rear-view camera" drone. UAF successfully destroyed RF D-20 artillery and a 2S3 self-propelled howitzer with drone strikes. New Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast. UAF special forces (Shybenyk Squad, 2nd Assault Company, Kraken) are conducting operations in Sumy Oblast. RF continues to use BM-21 Grad MLRS. Ukraine launches its largest port investment project, indicating economic resilience and long-term planning. Ukrainian forces report Russians are using anti-thermal imaging cloaks for infiltration tactics. RF IO emphasizes Putin's conditional willingness to meet Zelenskyy in Moscow, contrasting with Zelenskyy's statements on Ukraine's "Korean Scenario" and the need for US security guarantees. RF IO also focuses on internal control in Belgorod concerning UAV attack information. UAF claims significant destruction of RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reports a power outage in Krasnodar Krai due to a UAV strike. RF IO is leveraging discussion of a "frozen conflict" for Ukraine. RF IO is pushing a narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. RF drones originating from Donetsk Oblast are now reported on course for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF sources continue to claim significant advances in Kupyansk, with UAF sources also confirming RF infiltration and presence, albeit noting a lack of "firm control" over the city center, and indicating fragmented UAF defense. RF UAV group detected in Southern Sumy Oblast, moving west. RF UAVs on course for Poltava Oblast. Several groups of RF UAVs detected in northern Kharkiv Oblast (Chuhuiv Raion). RF military transport aircraft confirmed arriving in North Korea, with coffins draped in North Korean flags visible, suggesting potential military assistance or return of personnel. Explosion heard in Chuhuiv community, Kharkiv Oblast. RF reports five Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Rostov Oblast. New groups of RF UAVs are inbound from the Black Sea towards Odesa/Fontanka. The air raid alert for Odesa and Chornomorsk has been lifted following successful UAF interception of all incoming Shahed UAVs. The Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) continues in Vladivostok. RF is actively promoting a rise in military pensions and a continued increase in the 2026 budget, signaling long-term commitment to military personnel welfare. RF is also discussing financing for new energy generation in the Far East. RF IO is now actively countering claims of Western support for Ukraine, with Maria Zakharova stating that Ukraine's security guarantees are "guarantees of danger" for Europe. Colonelcassad reports a FAB-3000 strike on a UAF Forward Operating Base (FOB). Russian milbloggers "Two Majors" and "Parisan56rus" are providing footage from the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction. Russian milblogger "Operation Z" (via Russkaya Vesna) released a video on "Electronic Warfare (EW) strike" on the Zaporizhzhia front. UAF General Staff provides updated estimated RF combat losses. UAF reports two UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF sources claim UAF forces are mining houses on Karantynny Island (Kherson). RF Ministry of Defense claims 46 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions and the Black Sea. UK has directed over $1 billion from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. Aftermath of drone attack on Odesa: fire in a warehouse, no casualties. Trump states that Putin and Zelenskyy are not yet ready for a peace agreement. RF Ministry of Defense reports an additional four UAVs shot down over Volgograd Oblast. Colonelcassad posts drone footage of high-precision strikes on UAF trench positions by operators of the 5th Army Group "Vostok." Rybar provides a map-based analysis video of RF offensive operations in the Shcherbinovka area (between August 12-31, 2025). TASS reports RF military advances near Chervonaya Dibrova (LNR) and control of 5 hectares of forest near Grigorievka (DNR). Zvиздец Мангусту provides a brief summary from various directions and considerations regarding events on the Dobropillya direction, specifically mentioning the Sieversk (Slavyansk) direction and potential regrouping for the Pokrovsk assault. ASTRA reports China has not confirmed Putin's statements about "Power of Siberia-2." Operatsiya Z (Russkaya Vesna) reports RF air defense shot down 46 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. Два майора posts a video (18+) with "18th Combined Arms Army" insignia, showing an aerial strike on a small boat with personnel in water. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of enemy UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving southwest. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video claiming that drones attacked 17 Russian oil refineries in August. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posts a photo message stating "84 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed." ASTRA reports that Ukraine's Air Force states Russia attacked with 112 UAVs overnight, and UAF neutralized 84 of them. Шеф Hayabusa posts photos of damage in Sloviansk and Odesa after night attacks. RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia is preparing a new offensive against Ukraine, citing Bloomberg. UAF General Staff reports repelling 5 RF army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction.

• NEW DEVELOPMENTS (042130Z - 042200Z SEP 25):

  • RF Construction/Development (Donetsk): Operatsiya Z (via Русской Весны) reports on the creation of one of Russia's largest Youth Centers in Donetsk, "by order of the president." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: This is an RF IO effort to project an image of normalcy, development, and investment in occupied territories, aiming to legitimize its control and foster loyalty among the population. It also signals long-term integration plans for Donetsk.
  • RF Humanitarian Aid IO (Donetsk): Operatsiya Z (via Русской Весны) provides video showing humanitarian aid collection and distribution, primarily bottled water, by "NARODNY FRONT" (People's Front) in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: This is an RF IO effort to project humanitarian concern, showcasing efforts to alleviate civilian suffering in areas affected by conflict, likely to counter narratives of civilian harm and solidify support for RF's presence. It also highlights the chronic water issues in occupied Donetsk.
  • RF Pricing Control IO (Donetsk): Operatsiya Z (via Русской Весны) shows officials inspecting bottled water prices in a retail store in Donetsk, discussing "social price" for various volumes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: This is an RF IO effort to demonstrate governance, concern for consumer welfare, and control over basic necessities in occupied territories, likely aiming to counter accusations of economic exploitation and improve local sentiment.
  • RF Urban Development (Donetsk): Operatsiya Z (via Русской Весны) shows officials inspecting a construction site in Donetsk, discussing urban development, educational/community facilities, and timelines. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: Similar to the Youth Center, this is an RF IO effort to project long-term investment, rebuilding, and normalization of life in occupied Donetsk, aiming to demonstrate commitment and counter narratives of destruction.
  • UAF Air Raid Alert (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues an "ATTENTION" alert for missile threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: Indicates active RF aerial threat to Zaporizhzhia Oblast, consistent with previous patterns of missile/drone strikes.
  • RF Strike (Luhansk Oil Depot) - RF Confirmation: Operatsiya Z (via Русской Весны) posts photo messages with the caption "‼️🇷🇺🔥Враг атаковал Луганск: на месте удара сильный пожар," showing fire after a strike in Luhansk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: This confirms the previously reported UAF deep strike on the Luhansk oil depot from an RF-aligned source. The framing ("Enemy attacked Luhansk") confirms UAF responsibility and RF's narrative control efforts.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Black Sea Oil Spill: Remains valid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Formaldehyde Levels (Kalush): Fire in Kalush from night attack now extinguished, suggests environmental hazard mitigated for now, but underlying risk remains. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
• Russian Temperature Forecast: Above-normal temperatures are expected across most of Russia this and next week. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Mine Collapse (Yakutia): One fatality from the Yakutia mine collapse. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Night Attack Aftermath (Odesa/Sloviansk/Kharkiv/Druzhkivka): Aftermath footage shows damaged buildings (warehouse, truck) in Odesa, photos of damage in Sloviansk and Kharkiv, and a Nova Poshta branch in Druzhkivka, likely from fire or explosion, confirming localized air quality degradation and structural damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kryvyi Rih Status: Situation reported as "controlled," suggesting no immediate environmental threat from military action. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Rostov Oblast (Krasny Sulin): Night vision footage indicates operations during low visibility conditions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Odesa: Explosions and smoke indicate localized air quality degradation. New Shahed threat from Black Sea, implying potential for further air quality degradation and structural damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Incendiary Use (LNR): Claims of UAF using incendiary mixtures to set fires in LNR, indicating potential for localized environmental impact and smoke plumes affecting visibility. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
• Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk): Smoke plume from an explosion/impact in a forested area, indicating localized environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Pokrovsk Direction: Explosions and smoke from burning structures (Mavic drone operator's shelter) confirm localized environmental degradation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: ZALA Lancet strike shows a significant explosion and smoke plume, indicating localized air quality degradation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Bryansk Border Region: Aerial strikes with explosions and smoke plumes, indicating localized environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk) "Liberation" (RF claims): Widespread damage, explosions, and smoke, indicating a high-intensity combat zone with significant environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Zaporizhzhia City: Significant damage to civilian buildings, with broken windows and debris, indicating localized structural damage and air quality degradation from explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kupyansk: Helicopter strike on a UAV command post shows an explosion and smoke plume, indicating localized air quality degradation and structural damage. Destruction of Lozovaya district substation in Kupyansk direction confirms infrastructure damage and associated environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka Direction: Artillery strikes, damaged buildings, and smoke plumes, indicating ongoing, high-intensity combat with localized environmental impact and structural damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Krasnodar Krai and Rostov Oblast: Distant explosions and fire with smoke, confirming localized environmental impact in RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Druzhkivka: Shelling caused 7 wounded, indicating localized structural damage and air quality degradation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kozacha Lopan: "Unknown device" explosion caused two killed and two wounded, confirming localized structural damage and potential environmental hazards from munitions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Vladivostok (Russky Island): Heavy fog affecting visibility, which could hinder transportation and air operations for EEF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Sumy: Without electricity due to a Russian army strike on critical infrastructure, confirming localized environmental impact (power outages) and potential for broader disruption of essential services. Another explosion in Sumy, indicating continued localized environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New high-speed target on Sumy, indicating continued threat of environmental impact from strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• FPV Drone Strike (Motorcyclist): Flash and smoke from a drone impact, indicating localized environmental impact from the explosion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Wooded Area Drone Strike (RF): Explosion and significant smoke, indicating localized environmental degradation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• PzH 2000 Destruction: Explosion and smoke, confirming localized environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Zaporizhzhia Damage Assessment: Debris, shattered windows, and damaged balconies, indicating significant localized structural damage and air quality degradation due to the drone attack. Municipal cleanup and repairs are underway. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Water Shortages in Occupied Donetsk: Civilians queuing for water and "water marauders" stealing, indicating severe disruption to essential services and potential public health concerns due to infrastructure damage or mismanagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: The RF IO regarding humanitarian aid in Donetsk, particularly bottled water, directly addresses these persistent water shortages, confirming a significant environmental and public health issue.
• Novoselovka (Dnipropetrovsk) "Liberation" (TASS video): Explosions and smoke plumes from impact sites in a rural landscape, indicative of active military engagements and localized environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF Strike on RF Tank/Artillery/Robotic Complex (Donetsk): Explosions and smoke from direct hits on targets in Donetsk Oblast, indicating localized environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Missile Strike on Civilian Settlement (Chernihiv): Large, rapidly expanding smoke plume from an explosion consistent with a missile strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Air/Drone Strike on UAF Buggy: Significant explosion and fire after an apparent drone strike, indicating localized environmental impact and potential for secondary explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Bombing of Hospital/Village (Kostiantynivka): Damage to a hospital and nearby village from aerial bombs, confirming localized structural damage and potential air quality issues from explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Selydove (Occupied): Flames and thick black smoke from a damaged apartment building indicate a significant fire, likely from a UAF strike on an RF ammo depot. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Damaged Bridge/Urban Strike (Zaporizhzhia Front): RF milblogger video shows a damaged bridge with structural compromise and an urban settlement with smoke plumes, indicating significant environmental and structural damage near Stepnohirsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Nikopol Region: Photo messages show damage to civilian structures from FPV drones and artillery, confirming localized environmental impact and structural damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Demining Technology (RF): The "Courier" robotic demining platform demonstrates RF's efforts to mitigate environmental hazards from mines, though its deployment also implies the ongoing presence of minefields. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Internal Incident (Military Serviceman's House Fire): The fire at a military serviceman's house (car set alight) indicates a localized fire incident with potential air quality degradation and property damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Chernihiv Casualties: The number of wounded from the Chernihiv missile strike increased to 5. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kharkiv Direction: Map with explosion icons near Luk'yantsi and Lyptsi indicates localized environmental impact from active combat operations. Drone footage showing damaged buildings and terrain in Kharkiv direction further confirms this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Sieversk Direction: Drone footage showing a building engulfed in an explosion, and thermal imaging indicating lingering heat, confirms localized environmental impact from UAF drone strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Krasnoarmeysk Direction (Donetsk Oblast): Video of a bridge being destroyed, likely through explosives, indicating significant localized environmental impact from the destruction and potentially from the subsequent lack of access for humanitarian aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kharkiv Oblast: Thermal imaging footage of a burning tank indicates localized environmental impact from the intense fire and potential for smoke plumes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Zaporizhzhia Front: Drone footage of a burning Leopard 2 tank indicates localized environmental impact from the intense fire and smoke plume. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Sieversk Direction: Drone footage of wooded areas with explosions indicates localized environmental impact from UAF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Luhansk Oil Depot Fire: A large fire at an oil depot in occupied Luhansk after explosions/impacts indicates significant localized air quality degradation and structural damage, with potential for secondary explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: The RF confirmation of the Luhansk oil depot strike further solidifies the significant environmental impact.
• Murmansk Oil Spill: Introduction of "heightened readiness" in Murmansk due to an oil spill indicates localized environmental contamination and potential for broader impact on marine ecosystems, even if unrelated to combat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Air Attack Aftermath (Khotimlya, Kharkiv Oblast): RF attacked the village of Khotimlya in Starosaltiv community with a UAV around 21:30. The increasing number of casualties indicates localized environmental impact and human cost. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Missile Attack Aftermath (Lozovenka, Kharkiv Oblast): RF launched a missile strike on the village of Lozovenka in Iziumskyi district around 21:00. This indicates localized environmental impact and potential for structural damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF Deep Strike (Luhansk Oil Depot): Video confirms a strong fire at an RF oil refinery in Luhansk, following an impact. This indicates significant localized air quality degradation and potential for long-term environmental damage from chemical spills or fire suppression efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF FPV Drone Strike (RF Quad Bike/Ammo Depot): The video showing an FPV drone strike on an RF quad bike and subsequent destruction of an ammo depot confirms localized explosions and smoke plumes, indicating environmental impact from combat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Airspace Threat (Lipetsk Oblast): An air alert regime is introduced in Lipetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: Indicates potential for localized air quality degradation if a strike occurs.
• Friendly Airspace Clear (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Air raid alert lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: Indicates temporary relief from environmental threats in Zaporizhzhia.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF:

  • Air/Missile Assets: Actively employing long-range precision air-launched weapons (КАБ on Donetsk, Sumy, and now Kharkiv Oblast), attack UAVs (Lancet on UAF radar, FPV drones on checkpoint, FPV drone strike on vehicle near Sumy border, FPV drone strike on motorcyclist in Pokrovsk direction), tactical aviation (southeast and northeast directions), and conducting drone strikes (Kharkiv direction, Nikopol region, Kharkiv city, Odesa warehouse fire). Reports strikes on UAF UAV/artillery electronics in Khmelnytskyi. Claims of strikes on "Motor" aircraft repair plant in Lutsk and "Donmashstroy" in Kramatorsk. Artillery (Msta-S, BM-21 Grad MLRS) actively employed in Kharkiv direction. Claims of strike on UAF UAV operator location in Kupyansk-Uzlovoy. RF animated strike scheme details alleged widespread drone strikes across multiple regions. Claims of Kalibr/Geran strikes on "Spetsoboronmash" plant near Kyiv Oblast border. UAV group in Chernihiv region moving southwest. Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast (including Pokrovsky district, Belozerske/Dobropillya). UAV group from Kharkiv to Donetsk Oblast. UAV group from Donetsk to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAV group in Southern Sumy Oblast, moving west. RF UAVs on course for Poltava Oblast. Several groups of RF UAVs detected in northern Kharkiv Oblast (Chuhuiv Raion). Reports a power outage in Krasnodar Krai due to a UAV strike. Groups of RF UAVs inbound from the Black Sea towards Odesa/Fontanka (approx. 14 Shaheds) were successfully intercepted. RF claims five Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Rostov Oblast. "Rubikon" air defense combat groups operating various drones (Leleka-100, RQ-35 Heidrun, Vector, VT-260) over Ukrainian fields. New claim of a successful ЛМУР strike on a UAF UAV launch point for the 22nd Motorized Brigade. A new RF UAV group is currently active in northern Sumy Oblast, heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. Ballistic missile threat from the northeast. High-speed target detected on Sumy. UAF Air Force reports КАБ launches towards Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Colonelcassad reports a FAB-3000 strike on a UAF PVD (Forward Operating Base). "Operation Z" video highlights RF Electronic Warfare (EW) capabilities against UAF drones, likely to protect ground forces, specifically on the Zaporizhzhia front. RF Ministry of Defense claims 46 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions and the Black Sea. Rybar's "Eyes on Orbit" videos show at least two distinct multi-stage rocket/missile launches at night from coastal/urban areas. The additional four UAVs shot down over Volgograd Oblast demonstrate RF's active air defense capability against perceived UAF cross-border threats. Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) claims RF air defense shot down 46 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. Два майора posts a video (18+) with "18th Combined Arms Army" insignia, showing an aerial strike on a small boat with personnel in water. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a new group of enemy UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving southwest. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video claiming that drones attacked 17 Russian oil refineries in August. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posts a photo message stating "84 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed." ASTRA reports that Ukraine's Air Force states Russia attacked with 112 UAVs overnight, and UAF neutralized 84 of them. Шеф Hayabusa posts photos of damage in Sloviansk and Odesa after night attacks. RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia is preparing a new offensive against Ukraine, citing Bloomberg. UAF General Staff reports repelling 5 RF army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message about the "Konstantinovsky direction." Воин DV posts a video showing "harsh hits on enemy manpower trying to escape, but unsuccessfully," depicting drone footage of strikes on fortified positions and personnel. Kotsnews posts a video showcasing the "Ant" exoskeleton vest designed to reduce fatigue and enhance mobility for soldiers. Два майора posts a video urging "Let's activate! Over the past day, 669 people participated in the collection for assault troops of the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment." Два майора posts video of UAV operator training from the Konstantinovsky direction, specifically naming the 33rd Motorized Rifle Berlin-Don Cossack Regiment, 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division. MoD Russia releases video claiming a Fagot ATGM of the Zapad Group of Forces neutralized a Bradley IFV, a field ammunition depot, and AFU manpower. Mash на Донбассе posts a video claiming the Russian army began assaulting Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, showing UAV footage of strikes on a damaged building and surrounding area with military personnel. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF is again using incendiary mixtures to set fires in LNR. Colonelcassad posts a video showing the alleged capture of a Ukrainian DRG in Bryansk Oblast, whose task was railway sabotage. Воин DV posts a video claiming scouts from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade located a camouflaged enemy vehicle in the forests west of Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). Воин DV (RF milblogger, Vostok Group of Forces) claims the "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, supported by video showing artillery strikes, damage, RF flags, and soldiers. Два майора reports the "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by the "Vostok" Group of Forces, claiming it's the sixth in the region. ТАСС reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have "liberated" Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Сливочный каприз posts video from the Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka direction (04.09.25) showing artillery strikes, damaged buildings, and both Ukrainian and Russian flags in contested territory. ТАСС and Два майора report "complete liberation" of DNR territory and continued offensive into Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF forces took control of a 5-hectare forest area in LNR. WarGonzo posts video of "Group Nemets" (291st Regiment) conducting drone reconnaissance and artillery strikes on UAF positions in Zaporizhzhia. Военкор Котенок confirms RF MoD claims of advancing "deep into enemy defenses" and "liberating" Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Colonelcassad posts video claiming "Vostok" Group of Forces liberated Novoselovka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Операция Z (Русская Весна) posts photo message of Leonid Slutsky visiting Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. Рыбарь posts a tactical map titled "Liberation of Novoselovka," depicting claimed RF advances and control. RF MoD claims the "Vostok" Group of Forces made ground and took Novoselovka under control in Dnepropetrovsk region. RF Kotsnews reports the Russian army liberated Novoselovka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF Alex Parker Returns reports two Ukrainian DRGs are being sought in Kaluga Oblast (Zhigra, Lyudinovo, Kirov regions), allegedly comprising 5 personnel each (officer/sergeant from 3rd SOF Regiment), equipped with 10kg explosives, F-1 grenades, Garmin comms, AR-15 rifles with suppressors, PSS/MSP pistols. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts photo messages regarding the "Zaporizhzhia direction." БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video alleging a Russian occupier riding a motorcycle was targeted by a kamikaze drone. MoD Russia posts a photo message on the "progress of special military operation as of 4 September 2025." Два майора posts a series of photos, titled "Soldier's Daily Life," depicting a cat with camouflage gear and soldiers in a field environment. STERNENKO posts a video claiming another motorcyclist with a sidecar was destroyed by an FPV drone in the Pokrovsk direction. Colonelcassad posts a video claiming FPV drone crews of the RF 124th Separate Brigade of the RF Armed Forces consistently destroyed a Ukrainian DRG attempting to advance into the island zone of the Dnipro River. RF MOD - UKRAINIAN DRG DESTROYED (DNIPRO RIVER): TASS reports the RF Ministry of Defense states a Ukrainian DRG that attempted to land in the island zone of the Dnipro River was destroyed. RF - SUMY DIRECTION ADVANCE: Colonelcassad posts a video claiming "local advance in Yunakovka and front-line stability on the border" in the Sumy direction. RF - PZBH 2000 HOWITZER DESTROYED: "Воин DV" posts a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer. TASS - RF MOD CLAIMS DRG DESTRUCTION: TASS posts a video with the caption "Footage of the destruction of a Ukrainian DRG attempting to land in the island zone of the Dnipro." RF CONTROL OF DNIPRO DELTA ISLANDS (KHERSON): TASS reports that Saldo claims RF forces maintain control over islands in the Dnipro delta in Kherson Oblast. RF TACTICAL MAP - DONETSK/ZAPORIZHZHIA/DNIPROPETROVSK OFFENSIVE: Colonelcassad posts a tactical map claiming the front line after the "liberation" of the southwestern DNR, showing the offensive continuing into Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetropsk Oblasts. RF MILBLOGGER DRONE REQUEST: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video of an RF soldier requesting a Mavic 3 drone for reconnaissance and artillery spotting. UAF STRIKE ON RF TANK/ARTILLERY/ROBOTIC COMPLEX (DONETSK): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video claiming Phoenix unit operators of the State Border Guard Service (DPSU) destroyed an RF tank, artillery piece, and ground robotic complex in Donetsk Oblast. UAF FPV Drone Strike (Kherson): Шеф Hayabusa reports two RF occupiers were eliminated in the Kherson direction by an FPV drone strike. RF Air/Drone Strike on UAF Buggy (Vostok Group): Voin DV posts video claiming operators of the 69th Cover Brigade of the "Vostok" Group of Forces struck an enemy buggy. RF Bombing of Hospital/Village (Kostiantynivka): RBC-Ukraine reports RF dropped aerial bombs on a hospital in Kostiantynivka and a nearby village. RF MoD claims snipers of the 2nd Combined Arms Army (Tsentr Group of Forces) eliminated over 100 heavy strike drones of the AFU (referring to "Baba-Yaga" drones) in Krasnoarmeysk direction. RF Military Transportation Document Extension: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF MoD plans to increase the validity of military transportation documents from three to six months. UAF claims to have struck an RF ammunition depot in occupied Selydove. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF milblogger "Два майора" posts a map of the Zaporizhzhia front near Stepnohirsk. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO reports increased RF use of heavy equipment and small infantry groups for assaults on the Zaporizhzhia direction, supported by drone footage of strikes on RF positions and vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Finnish (Janus Putkonen) and Ukrainian sources (citing "Ukrainian propagandists") claim Russia has conducted its largest regrouping since 2022 and is ready for a decisive battle for Donbas, publishing intelligence maps. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad posts video of 155th Marine Brigade cadets undergoing an obstacle course, demonstrating physical fitness and teamwork, likely for morale/recruitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF fought Colombian mercenaries for two days, possibly as part of an IO effort to denigrate UAF and its foreign support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) MoD Russia reports servicemembers of the 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade (Vostok Group of Forces) are in Novoselovka, Dnipropetrovsk region, confirming RF ground presence and claimed control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports "active battles" in the Pokrovsko-Dobropolsk direction, indicating continued RF ground pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad posts a video showcasing the "Courier" robotic platform equipped with a laser system for demining (Ignis laser demining system), demonstrating remote detonation of TM-62 and PTM-3/PMN mines at 150m. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports the Lozovaya district substation on the Kupyansk direction was destroyed by RF forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Fighterbomber posts a video displaying ZSU-23-4 Shilka self-propelled anti-aircraft weapon systems in a parade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) MoD Russia releases video claiming "AFU UAV long-range deploying area being eliminated in Chernigov region," showing a strike on vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF observation and evacuation points were destroyed in the Druzhkovsky direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Fighterbomber posts two identical video messages celebrating the 85th anniversary of the Kazan Helicopter Plant, showcasing helicopter production and various models (including rescue/transport/medical). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts two photo messages and two video messages with the caption "Kharkiv direction," one showing a map with explosion icons near Luk'yantsi and Lyptsi, and the videos showing drone footage of successful strikes against UAF mortar positions, military vehicles (truck, tractor), damaged buildings, and a downed 'Baba-Yaga' drone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) MoD Russia posts two identical video messages titled "Russian drone pilots lose no time," showcasing FPV drone footage identifying and targeting armored vehicles (BTRs), communication systems (antennas), and other infrastructure, with explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad posts two identical video messages with the caption "Footage of the destruction of a long-range AFU UAV preparation and launch point in Chernihiv Oblast," showing an aerial strike on multiple white vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports RF MOD claims shooting down two Ukrainian drones over Rostov and Belgorod Oblasts, and two over the Black Sea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) WarGonzo posts a text message: "Exclusive. The DPR team is leading the score: 'Somali,' 'Piatnashka,' and legendary militiamen," promoting success for proxy forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Ground Operations (Zaporizhzhia Direction): Воин DV posts video claiming RF forces discovered and destroyed a German Leopard 2 tank on the Zaporizhzhia front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Air Activity/Alerts: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports: missile threat in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Poltava Oblasts (HIGH CONFIDENCE); ballistic missile threat from Kursk (HIGH CONFIDENCE); high-speed target on Myrhorod (HIGH CONFIDENCE); high-speed target on Sumy (HIGH CONFIDENCE); UAV from Kharkiv Oblast on course for Poltava Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE); high-speed target in Poltava Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE); UAV threat in Iziumskyi district (Kharkiv Oblast) and Donetsk Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE); another high-speed target on Sumy (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Volgograd airport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Defense Industry/Infrastructure: Fighterbomber posts video of a new mechanization and processing plant at Kazan Helicopter Plant. Kadyrov_95 posts video of construction of a large Islamic center and high-rise buildings in Grozny. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Ground Operations (Konstantinovka): Сливочный каприз posts a photo and video from Konstantinovka (04.09.25), showing a tank being hit and burning. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Geopolitical Narratives): Операция Z (via Русской Весны) posts an image implying a possible alliance between USA, Russia, China, and India, attributed to a "Kremlin special representative." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Daily Summary: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a "Summary for the day September 4." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Counter-Espionage (Belarus): TASS and Два майора report that Belarusian authorities detained a Polish spy collecting information on the upcoming "Zapad-2025" Belarusian-Russian exercises. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Ground Operations (Konstantinovka Direction): Colonelcassad posts video on "Konstantinovka direction: pressure on Kleban-Byk, struggle for Alexandro-Shultino, and strikes on Predtechino," showing drone footage of a damaged/burning military vehicle. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Geran Drone Narrative): Alex Parker Returns posts a video with derogatory language and the caption "Nothing unusual, just an orchestra playing the sound of a Geranium." The video shows an orchestra and a cat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (SMO Impact): Два майора posts "The SMO changed a lot." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Internal Incident (IT Businessman Case):: TASS reports a criminal case against IT businessman and billionaire Sergei Matsotsky for bribery has been closed due to lack of involvement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Air Activity/Alerts (Sumy): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a new high-speed target on Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Anti-Artillery (Kherson): Colonelcassad posts video claiming RF FPV drones destroyed a Ukrainian "Bohdana" 155mm wheeled self-propelled howitzer in the Kherson direction. The video description implies the drone footage is from an FPV drone, targeting an armored vehicle. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Counter-Intelligence (Belarus): Операция Z (via Русской Весны) further amplifies the report of Belarusian authorities detained a Polish spy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Geopolitical/US Withdrawal): Janus Putkonen (RF-aligned source) promotes a narrative of "USA's withdrawal from Russia's borders" as part of an "Alaska 2025 agreement." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (New UAF Drone Threat): Два майора warns RF soldiers to "beware of a new enemy drone! It strikes deep in the rear!" and posts a video showing a Ukrainian drone (with clear UAF markings) striking a roadside structure (likely a bus stop or kiosk) and damaging a dashcam. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Air Activity (Chernihiv): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV in Chernihiv Oblast, moving southwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Sports/Normalcy): TASS reports Russia's national football team drew 0-0 with Jordan in a friendly match. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Airspace Restrictions (Penza Oblast): Temporary flight restrictions in Penza Oblast by Ministry of Emergency Situations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Air Threat (Kharkiv Oblast): RF attacked the village of Khotimlya in Starosaltiv community with a UAV around 21:30. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Missile Strike (Kharkiv Oblast): RF launched a missile strike on the village of Lozovenka in Iziumskyi district around 21:00. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Air Threat/Drone Warfare (Sumy Direction): Colonelcassad posts video of a "battle of drones" in the Sumy direction, claiming UAF UAVs are caught in the nets of the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade (83 OGDSHBr) "Gulbasa Group." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Ground Operations (Pokrovsk Direction): "Operation Z" (via Русской Весны) posts video claiming "fierce battles near Pokrovsk: 'Brave' mass-burn enemy equipment and infantry." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Drone Funding/Innovation: "Два майора" posts a video promoting fundraising for "fiber optics" for drones, showcasing a 3D-printed payload delivery system capable of distances of 15-25 km. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Ground Operations (Pokrovsk-Dobropillya Direction): Colonelcassad posts a map image with the caption "Pokrovsk-Dobropillya direction – active battles." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Drone Threat (Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts): A UAV is reported on the border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with a northwest course. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Air Defense (Volgograd): Restrictions on aircraft reception and release at Volgograd airport have been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Drone Threat (Northern Ukraine): Shaheds are reportedly attacking Ukraine from the north. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Trump/Putin Photo): Janus Putkonen (RF-aligned source) posted a fabricated image of Trump and Putin at an "Alaska summit." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Alex Parker Returns - Internal Criticism): Alex Parker Returns' video regarding Leonid Volkov's departure from FBK, with anti-semitic undertones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Western Disunity - Bild): "Operation Z" reports EU leaders don't expect US sanctions against Russia, citing Bild. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Counter-Artillery (Donbas): Colonelcassad reports the destruction of a German 155mm PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer in Donbas by drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Casualties (Zaporizhzhia Direction): Colonelcassad claims the elimination of GUR Colonel Popovich Alexey (callsign "Borets"), commander of the 10th Separate Special Purpose Detachment, GUR, near Stepnohirsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Medical Evacuation IO: Colonelcassad posts a video focusing on an RF combat medic and medical evacuation vehicle, with commentary emphasizing their life-saving mission. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Rybar Daily Summary: Rybar posts a tactical map titled "Chronicle of the Special Military Operation," including a map of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad direction as of September 4, 2025. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Drone Effectiveness IO: TASS cites American journal The National Interest claiming "Rubikon" strike drones have deprived UAF of maneuver freedom, paralyzed logistics, and turned supply lines into "roads of death." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Trump/Putin Photo - Operatsiya Z): Operatsiya Z (via Russkaya Vesna) amplifies the fabricated Trump/Putin "Alaska summit" photo, portraying them watching F-35s. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Ukrainian Refugees in Canada): Alex Parker Returns posts images and text, alleging brutal beatings of Ukrainian refugees in Canada, using derogatory language. The accompanying video depicts a violent knife attack on a public bus, framed as "nothing unusual, just a story from Canadian news." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Trump/Putin/Zelenskyy Meeting): TASS reports Witkoff stated at the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting that Trump is ready to meet with Putin and Zelenskyy, citing The Wall Street Journal. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Combat Lasers): Colonelcassad posts a link to a discussion "On the issue of combat lasers." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Humanitarian Aid (Afghanistan): TASS reports the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations sent a plane with humanitarian aid to earthquake-stricken Afghanistan. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF UAV Threat (Sumy): Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV is active over Sumy city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Diplomatic Outreach (Kenya): TASS reports Kenya is interested in establishing sister-city relations between Vladivostok and Mombasa, and in economic cooperation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Airspace Threat (Lipetsk Oblast): Igor Artamonov (Lipetsk governor) reports an air alert regime in Lipetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Domestic Aviation Update: TASS reports the program for the production and supply of aircraft in Russia will be updated by the end of the year. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Construction/Development (Donetsk): Operatsiya Z (via Русской Весны) reports on the creation of one of Russia's largest Youth Centers in Donetsk, "by order of the president." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: Indicates RF's long-term intention to integrate occupied Ukrainian territories and invest in their infrastructure, projecting stability and legitimacy.
  • RF Humanitarian Aid IO (Donetsk): Operatsiya Z (via Русской Весны) provides video showing humanitarian aid collection and distribution, primarily bottled water, by "NARODNY FRONT" (People's Front) in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: Indicates RF's capability to organize and deploy significant humanitarian aid, likely with an IO objective to win over local populations and demonstrate state capacity.
  • RF Pricing Control IO (Donetsk): Operatsiya Z (via Русской Весны) shows officials inspecting bottled water prices in a retail store in Donetsk, discussing "social price." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: Highlights RF's capacity for state-controlled economic interventions, projecting an image of care for civilian welfare, especially relevant in conflict-affected areas where resources may be scarce.
  • RF Urban Development (Donetsk): Operatsiya Z (via Русской Весны) shows officials inspecting a construction site in Donetsk, discussing urban development. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: Confirms RF's commitment to rebuilding and developing infrastructure in occupied territories, likely to enhance long-term control and normalize Russian presence.
  • RF Strike (Luhansk Oil Depot) - RF Confirmation: Operatsiya Z (via Русской Весны) posts photo messages confirming fire after a strike in Luhansk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: Confirms RF's internal reporting and awareness of UAF deep strike capabilities and their impact.

• UAF:

  • Air Defense: Operating under intense pressure, successfully intercepting a high volume of drones and missiles, but with confirmed fatalities and infrastructure damage. Has secured additional air defense systems from Nordic/Baltic partners. Confirmed a Molniya UAV hit a university in Kharkiv. UAF successfully downed a "Gerbera" reconnaissance drone. Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast. UAF claims significant destruction of RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. All incoming Shahed UAVs towards Odesa/Fontanka were successfully intercepted. UAF Air Force reports a high-speed target on Sumy. Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration reports two UAVs were shot down over the oblast. STERNENKO provides photos of a fire in an Odesa warehouse due to a drone attack, with DSNS reporting no casualties. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video showing damage to a warehouse and a cargo truck in Odesa due to an RF attack. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posts a photo message stating "84 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed." ASTRA reports that Ukraine's Air Force states Russia attacked with 112 UAVs overnight, and UAF neutralized 84 of them. Шеф Hayabusa posts photos of damage in Sloviansk and Odesa after night attacks. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for Chernihiv Oblast (Nizhyn district) regarding enemy strike UAVs. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for Chernihiv Oblast regarding enemy strike UAVs. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorod district) regarding enemy strike UAVs. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the destruction of an S-300V SAM system in the Zaporizhzhia direction by the "Lazar" Separate Special Purpose Regiment of the 27th Pecheneg National Guard Brigade. ASTRA reports one person killed, six injured after Russian strikes on Kharkiv Oblast, citing police. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV in the Black Sea waters near Odesa Oblast and advises seeking shelter if an alarm is announced. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for "Threat of ballistic weaponry from the south." 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues an "ATTENTION" alert for missile threat. Николаевский Ванёк reports "ballistics on Tuzly/Mykolaivka !!!" and "working with adjustment near Tuzly." STERNENKO reports "Ballistic threat from the south!" Николаевский Ванёк reports a repeat ballistic missile launch targeting Tuzly. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for Chernihiv Oblast regarding enemy strike UAVs. Николаевский Ванёк reports that the ballistic missile threat to Tuzly has been neutralized ("minus"). Оперативний ЗСУ (Militarny) reports UAF likely struck two RF radar complexes, RLC-1 "Navigation South," in Rostov region overnight. ASTRA reports three people were wounded in Zaporizhzhia city after a Russian drone attack. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for Sumy Oblast regarding enemy strike UAVs. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports three people wounded in Zaporizhzhia from an attack. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports one person wounded after an enemy attack on a utility company vehicle in Orikhiv. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports air raid alert lifted. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 and РБК-Україна report that the number of wounded in Zaporizhzhia city has increased to four following an enemy attack. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports one 53-year-old woman was wounded in Zaporizhzhia Raion following an enemy attack. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UAF source) provides an update on satellite images regarding strikes in Crimea, confirming likely hit on six hovercraft ("Flamingo" cruise missiles), visual confirmation for four, and one serviceman killed. ASTRA CONFIRMS UAF STRIKES ON CRIMEA BASE: ASTRA posts new satellite images confirming its information about the damage to boats and barracks at a Russian border base in annexed Crimea after a UAF attack. UAF Air Force reports threat of enemy strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast (Novgorod-Siversky district) and Sumy Oblast (Shostkinsky and Konotopsky districts). UAF Odesa Warehouse Damage (Photo): STERNENKO posts photo messages showing fragments of a downed Shahed drone that caused a fire in an Odesa warehouse. UAF Heavy Copters "Vampire" in Action (82nd Airmobile Brigade): BUTUSOV PLUS posts video about Ukrainian heavy copter pilots of the "Vampire" unit (82nd Airmobile Brigade) conducting night bombing missions. RF Bombing of Hospital/Village (Kostiantynivka): RBC-Ukraine reports RF dropped aerial bombs on a hospital in Kostiantynivka and a nearby village. UAF Air Force reports threat of enemy strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast (Priluksky district) and Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorodsky district). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF Air Force reports threats of RF strike UAVs in Poltava Oblast (Lubny district) and aviation weapon use in Dnipropetrovsk (Synelnykivskyi district) and Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues a new missile alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF Air Force reports new strike UAVs from the Black Sea on course for Odesa Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports new Shahed threats to Odesa Oblast in broad daylight, indicating the persistent nature of the threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO claims "WU Samurai" shot down 2 "Gerbera" (reconnaissance drones) and 1 "Lancet" (loitering munition), demonstrating continued UAF counter-UAS effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Air raid alert lifted for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Another explosion in Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The number of wounded from the missile strike on the outskirts of Chernihiv has increased to 5. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast (Shostkinsky and Konotopsky districts) and Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast (Romensky district) and Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkiv district). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Syrsky is creating an echeloned system to counter enemy "Shaheds." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ground Forces: Maintaining defensive posture under intense pressure in Sieversk and Kupyansk. Denying significant RF breakthroughs despite intense pressure. UAF denies RF control of Kupyansk city center, confirming only infiltration attempts that are being countered. Oleg Synegubov's working trip highlights the severity and focus on this direction. UAF is rapidly restoring power in Lozovsky district after RF shelling, demonstrating quick response capabilities. UAF's "Apachi" unit is actively destroying attacking enemy forces in the Sieversk direction, demonstrating continued effective defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Southern/Eastern Fronts: Maintaining defensive operations, conducting localized strikes against RF assets, and adapting to RF tactics (e.g., anti-thermal cloaks). Active engagement of Russian BMPs in Zaporizhzhia by the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade. Minister of Defense working on the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating high-level attention to this new threat axis. Increased FPV drone strikes against RF in Zaporizhzhia. Dnipropetrovsk ODA reports sustained FPV drone and artillery attacks in Nikopol region, indicating active UAF defense. UAF Command Staff in Zaporizhzhia Oblast holding meeting, indicating high-level coordination. "Phoenix" unit successfully destroying RF tank, artillery, and robotic complex demonstrates continued offensive capability. "Active battles" reported in Pokrovsko-Dobropolsk direction indicate UAF forces are engaged and holding.
  • Tactical Innovation: Successful deployment of "NC13" ground robotic complexes by the 3rd Assault Brigade for combat, evacuation, and logistics, indicating a proactive approach to modern warfare. Development and use of heavy copters "Vampire" by the 82nd Airmobile Brigade for night bombing missions. UAF is actively developing and demonstrating FPV drones resistant to RF Electronic Warfare (EW), potentially carrying significant munitions, as seen on the Zaporizhzhia front. DeepState reports 210th Separate Assault Regiment (OSHP) received FPV drones on fiber optics.
  • Domestic Defense Industry: Continued production of artillery and drones. Announcement by "Fire Point" of FP-7 and FP-9 ballistic missile and air defense system development is a significant step towards long-range strike and enhanced IAMD capabilities.
  • Special Forces: Actively conducting "rusorez" operations in Sumy Oblast and successful counter-UAV operations in Pokrovsk direction. UAF General Staff photos show riverine training, indicating readiness for special operations.
  • Logistics: Major port investment project signals long-term economic and logistical planning and resilience. Mykolaiv receiving fresh water after 2022 is a significant infrastructure victory.
  • Morale/Training: UAF General Staff actively engaging in morale-boosting IO, including sharing videos of adaptation courses for Air Assault Forces. Soldiers training to counter drones. High-level leadership directly engaging with frontline units (Synegubov in Kupyansk, Minister of Defense in Zaporizhzhia). Strong public support for crowdfunding. POW family meetings indicate commitment to personnel welfare. The capture of 9 RF soldiers by 4 UAF soldiers on their first mission is a significant morale booster. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Counter-Intelligence: SBU and National Police continue to successfully detain RF agents involved in sabotage and espionage, including a significant recent success in Kyiv, Lviv, and Volyn Oblasts (5 agents, 3 under 18). Detention of 5 additional agents for arson and sabotage. Prosecutor General's Office actively combating illicit trade supporting RF.
  • Desertion Policy: Verkhovna Rada reinstating criminal liability for unauthorized absence (СЗЧ), but also simplifying the return to service, indicating efforts to manage manpower and discipline while encouraging reintegration.
  • New UAF Capabilities: UAF Phoenix unit (DPSU) successfully destroyed an RF tank, artillery, and a ground robotic complex in Donetsk Oblast. UAF aviation is conducting strikes against RF positions, demonstrating continued air support capabilities.
  • Law Enforcement: Ukrainian police conducting routine traffic stops, indicating functioning civilian governance in non-combat areas. However, reports of gunfire on a TCC group near Lutsk suggest localized internal security challenges or resistance to mobilization efforts.
  • Air Defense/Ballistic Missile Response: UAF Air Force, KMVA, and regional administrations are issuing immediate alerts and responding to ballistic missile threats in Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, and Sumy.
  • Resilience of Education: Children attending school in underground classrooms in Kharkiv demonstrates remarkable resilience and commitment to education despite ongoing conflict.
  • Internal Anti-Corruption Efforts: Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor's Office uncovering new abuses highlights ongoing efforts to combat corruption at regional levels. The VAKS decision regarding Tetiana Krupa is another example of ongoing anti-corruption efforts. An interim measure for SBU General Vityuk indicates continued focus on accountability.
  • Civilian Support Infrastructure: KMVA highlighting efforts to make assistance "maximally accessible and understandable" (e.g., "Ye Opora" app) shows ongoing adaptation for civilian support under wartime conditions.
  • Zelenskyy Diplomacy: President Zelenskyy's active participation in the "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting with over 30 countries demonstrates sustained diplomatic efforts to secure long-term security guarantees and immediate military support. He emphasizes that security guarantees must be legislated at a parliamentary level, indicating a focus on formalizing commitments. Zelenskyy's statements about Trump calling on Hungary and Slovakia to stop buying Russian oil demonstrate UAF's continued efforts to influence and leverage international partners.
  • General Staff Updates: UAF General Staff provides regular operational updates, reinforcing transparency and command visibility.
  • Demining Efforts: Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov reports successful demining of almost 212 hectares in a week, indicating ongoing efforts to restore land and protect civilians.
  • Veteran Policy (Kyiv): KMVA reports a meeting discussing the "Strategy for Veteran Policy until 2030" and its implementation in Kyiv, indicating forward-looking planning for veteran integration and welfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • POW Issues: Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War meeting with US Embassy representatives indicates ongoing diplomatic efforts regarding POWs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • War Crime Documentation: Prosecutor General's Office actively documenting and investigating RF war crimes, as seen in the Kherson torture and robbery report, contributing to legal accountability efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kryvyi Rih Stability: Олександр Вілкул providing a briefing reinforces local command oversight and stability in Kryvyi Rih. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Mobilization Transparency: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 showcasing TCC groups with body cameras for public notification indicates UAF's efforts to increase transparency in mobilization efforts and counter negative narratives. "Резерв+" expanded functions for online fine payment is an administrative success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • International Support Diplomacy: Zelenskyy's press conference with Macron, highlighting allied military presence and EU membership as security guarantees, demonstrates proactive diplomacy to secure long-term defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Legal Oversight: The report on the SBU General Vityuk choosing an interim measure reflects UAF's commitment to internal legal processes and accountability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Human Rights Concerns (Internal): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts about a four-year prison sentence for "peaceful preaching," which if pertaining to Ukraine, could indicate internal human rights concerns or misuse of legal processes, potentially impacting public sentiment and requiring internal review. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Daily Information Summary: РБК-Україна providing a daily summary shows UAF's efforts to keep the public informed and focused. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF IO (Western Support Narrative): Оперативний ЗСУ and ASTRA amplify a Financial Times report that the U.S. will cut defense aid for European countries bordering Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF IO (Humanitarian Tragedy): РБК-Україна reports an update on the funicular catastrophe in Lisbon, stating a Ukrainian citizen died. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Casualties (Khotimlya, Kharkiv Oblast): The number of casualties from the RF drone attack on Khotimlya is increasing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Casualties/Losses: Colonelcassad and DeepState report the death of Captain Artem Sviridov, commander of the 2nd Assault Company, 1st Assault Battalion, 210th OSHP, in the Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Diplomacy: РБК-Україна reports on Fico (Slovakia) plans for a meeting with Zelenskyy in Uzhhorod. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • International Condemnation (Chernihiv Strike): ASTRA reports Denmark's Foreign Ministry condemned the RF strike on the humanitarian mission near Chernihiv, stating it's "another proof that Putin does not intend to end his illegal aggressive war." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Air Defense (Zaporizhzhia): The air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Ground Operations (Sieversk Direction): STERNENKO posts video claiming the "Apachi" unit is striking targets around the clock. The video shows drone footage of wooded areas with explosions on small structures/positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Ground Operations (Donbas): Оперативний ЗСУ posts video with the caption "'Mom, Dad, I'm in Donbas!'" showing Ukrainian soldiers clearing a wooded area and engaging enemy positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • German Military Aid to Ukraine (NEW): РБК-Україна reports Germany plans to provide equipment for four Ukrainian brigades. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF General Staff Update: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts operational information as of 22:00 04.09.2025 regarding the Russian invasion, with an image of a soldier in a wooded area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Counter-Offensive/Deep Strike (Luhansk): STERNENKO, RBC-Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, and ASTRA confirm a successful UAF strike on an oil depot in occupied Luhansk, causing a large fire. This demonstrates UAF's capability for deep strikes against RF logistical targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF POW Incident (Klishchiivka): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian mortar crew from 93rd Brigade was captured by RF forces on Klishchiivka direction after resisting an assault. This highlights the difficult and dangerous conditions faced by UAF forces and the potential for personnel losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • International Support (Troop Contribution): RBC-Ukraine (citing Radio Svoboda) reports ten countries are ready to send up to 30,000 soldiers to Ukraine. This indicates a significant potential for increased foreign military support for UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UN Reaction (Chernihiv Strike): RBC-Ukraine reports the UN is "shocked" by the Russian strike on a humanitarian mission near Chernihiv. This indicates strong international condemnation of RF actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Air Defense Strategy: UAF is establishing an echeloned "anti-Shahed" system, as confirmed by Syrsky during a General Staff meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Online Drone Operations Board: A verified, real-time public online scoreboard showing the results of each SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) unit and the overall unmanned systems grouping is now publicly available. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF IO (School Event): A video from Cherkasy school showing students singing an anti-occupier song with profanity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Deep Strike (Luhansk Oil Depot): Video confirms a strong fire at an RF oil refinery in Luhansk, following an impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Trump/Putin Photo - RBC-Ukraine): RBC-Ukraine reports Trump published a photo with Putin observing US fighter-bombers over Alaska. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF FPV Drone Strike (RF Quad Bike/Ammo Depot): Operatyvnyi ZSU released a video showing a UAF 45th Separate Artillery Brigade FPV drone strike on an RF quad bike, followed by a secondary strike on a nearby ammunition depot, causing a large explosion and fire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • DRC Statement (Chernihiv Strike): RBC-Ukraine posts a statement from the Danish Refugee Council (DRC) regarding the RF attack on their volunteer team today. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Friendly Airspace Clear (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports the air raid alert has been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Air Raid Alert (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues an "ATTENTION" alert for missile threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: Indicates ongoing UAF monitoring and rapid response to RF aerial threats.

1.3.1. Control Measures:

• RF Airspace Restrictions (Penza Oblast): Temporary airspace restrictions have been imposed in Penza Oblast. This is a control measure implemented by RF authorities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Belgorod Information Control: The operational headquarters of Belgorod Oblast has prohibited publishing unofficial information about military operations and their deployment locations, a measure to control information flow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Air Defense (Volgograd): Restrictions on aircraft reception and release at Volgograd airport have been lifted. This indicates the temporary suspension of an RF control measure, likely due to a reduction in perceived threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Airspace Restrictions Lifted (Penza Oblast): TASS reports the temporary ban on airspace use has been lifted in Penza Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Airspace Threat (Lipetsk Oblast): Igor Artamonov (Lipetsk governor) reports an air alert regime in Lipetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: This is a control measure to warn the civilian population and potentially prepare air defense assets in response to perceived UAF drone threats.
• UAF Air Raid Alert (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues an "ATTENTION" alert for missile threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: This is a UAF control measure to alert the population and enable protective actions in response to perceived RF aerial threats.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:

  • Sustained and Adaptive Multi-Domain Strikes: RF continues persistent missile and drone strikes targeting Ukraine's defense industry, fuel infrastructure, and railway infrastructure. Civilian casualties remain a consequence of these strikes, with new confirmed casualties in Zaporizhzhia (4 wounded), Orikhiv (2 wounded), and Druzhkivka (7 wounded), as well as two killed and two wounded in Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast. RF demonstrates the ability to adapt its targeting (e.g., UAF UAV operator locations, UAV launch points, educational institutions, humanitarian demining missions, and now potentially TCC groups). The volume of drone attacks remains high (112 UAVs overnight), demonstrating capacity for large-scale, coordinated air strikes against urban infrastructure, despite UAF interceptions. RF maintains robust air defense capabilities (claiming 46 UAF UAVs shot down, as well as new "small air defense" capabilities, and showcased Shilka AA systems in IO). RF continues to test missile/rocket launch capabilities and employs heavy unguided munitions like FAB-3000. RF also uses advanced EW capabilities to counter UAF drones. RF is capable of striking deep into Ukrainian territory, as evidenced by drone attacks on RF oil refineries in August. Rybar's "Eyes on Orbit" videos could be intended to demonstrate RF's continued military prowess and a deterrent capability. Два майора's video showing an aerial strike on a small boat indicates RF's capability for targeted strikes on watercraft and personnel in riverine/coastal environments. MoD Russia's claim of neutralizing a Bradley IFV indicates RF's continued ATGM effectiveness against armored vehicles and ground targets. MoD Russia's claimed strike on UAF UAV command post and strongholds in Krasnoarmeysk direction indicates an intent to directly degrade UAF C2 and fortified positions. The КАБ launches on Kharkiv Oblast indicate an intent to expand the deep strike campaign to further degrade UAF's ability to defend its northern territories and support ongoing ground operations. Народная милиция ДНР's claimed destruction of AFU positions, PVD, and antenna by 68th orb indicates RF's persistent capability for reconnaissance and targeted strikes against UAF forward positions and communication infrastructure. Два майора's video claiming a Lancet strike on UAF artillery in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, followed by an aerial strike, clearly demonstrates RF's continued capability for precision loitering munition attacks against UAF artillery assets, using real-time ISR. Colonelcassad's video from Bryansk border region, showing drone reconnaissance of a communication tower (identifying communication system, transformer), a mortar position, and vehicles, followed by aerial strikes, illustrates RF's layered ISR and strike capability, including against potential cross-border incursions or support infrastructure. Colonelcassad's video claiming Russian helicopter crews struck a UAV command post on the Kupyansk tactical direction. This demonstrates RF's capability to deploy rotary-wing assets for targeted strikes against UAF UAV C2, even in contested urban areas. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video from Krasnodar Krai and Rostov Oblast, suggesting UAF strikes, which RF will intend to deter or respond to. Kotsnews videos demonstrate RF's sustained artillery capabilities, showing self-propelled howitzers firing and impacts on UAF positions/infrastructure. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video from a Russian military vehicle's dashcam showing a Ukrainian "Bulava" drone hitting the car. This further confirms UAF's capability for targeted drone strikes on RF ground vehicles. TASS video reports "Rubikon" operators struck 6 AFU armored vehicles and 3 Starlink stations. RBC-Ukraine reports that Sumy and its district are without electricity due to a Russian army strike on critical infrastructure. RF MOD - UKRAINIAN DRG DESTROYED (DNIPRO RIVER): TASS reports the RF Ministry of Defense states a Ukrainian DRG that attempted to land in the island zone of the Dnipro River was destroyed. RF DRONE STRIKE (WOODED AREA): "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts a video with the caption "Target destroyed, no survivors." RF - PZBH 2000 HOWITZER DESTROYED: "Воин DV" posts a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer. TASS - RF MOD CLAIMS DRG DESTRUCTION: TASS posts a video with the caption "Footage of the destruction of a Ukrainian DRG attempting to land in the island zone of the Dnipro." RF ANIMATED STRIKE SCHEME: Colonelcassad posts an animated scheme of RF strikes on Ukrainian territory from 03-04 SEP 25, detailing widespread drone and UMPK glide bomb strikes across multiple oblasts. RF IO - YOUTH SABOTAGE NARRATIVE: RF milblogger "Операция Z" (via Русской Весны) posts a narrative claiming children are used for sabotage by Ukraine. This indicates an intent to discredit Ukraine, potentially dehumanize its resistance, and sow internal distrust within Ukraine or among international supporters. RF CONTROL OF DNIPRO DELTA ISLANDS (KHERSON): TASS reports Saldo's claim of RF maintaining control over Dnipro delta islands in Kherson Oblast. This indicates RF's intent to secure strategic riverine territories and reinforce its defensive posture in the Kherson direction, denying UAF riverine operations. RF IO - DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN ENERGY/ODESA BLOCKADE: Colonelcassad posts a video by Rojin on "Destruction of Ukrainian energy, robodogs and naval blockade of Odesa." This indicates RF's intent to project its capabilities and strategic goals of crippling Ukrainian energy infrastructure and naval access. RF Ballistic Missile Strike on Humanitarian Mission (Chernihiv): The confirmed ballistic missile strike on humanitarian demining personnel in Chernihiv, while possibly a targeting error, demonstrates an intent to strike in the area, and even if unintentional, it serves to increase pressure and fear, and disrupt humanitarian efforts. RF Air/Drone Strike on UAF Buggy: Voin DV posts video claiming operators of the 69th Cover Brigade of the "Vostok" Group of Forces struck an enemy buggy. RF Bombing of Hospital/Village (Kostiantynivka): RBC-Ukraine reports RF dropped aerial bombs on a hospital in Kostiantynivka and a nearby village. RF's airspace violations over Poland, if intentional, indicate a reach and potential disregard for sovereign borders that could escalate regional tensions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The confirmed strike on a hospital in Kostiantynivka demonstrates RF's continued capability and willingness to use aerial bombs indiscriminately against civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The Vostok Group of Forces is receiving DJI Mavic 3 drones, demonstrating RF's continued capability to procure and deploy COTS UAVs for combat support and reconnaissance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The new UAF Air Force report of a strike UAV threat in Poltava Oblast and aviation weapon use in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia indicates RF's continued capability to project drone and aviation threats across various regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF MoD claims destruction of a UAF long-range UAV preparation and launch point for the 22nd Motorized Brigade in Chernihiv Oblast with an Iskander OTRK. This indicates RF's capability for precision strikes using OTRKs and their intent to target UAF drone infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Dnipropetrovsk ODA reports Nikopol region suffered from RF FPV drones and artillery throughout the day, indicating RF's capability for sustained close-range drone and artillery fire against civilian settlements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a video claiming a ZALA Lancet identified camouflaged UAF artillery in Dnipropetropvska Oblast, followed by a strike, demonstrating RF's continued ISR-strike chain capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports the Lozovaya district substation on the Kupyansk direction was destroyed by RF forces, demonstrating capability to target UAF energy infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The MoD Russia video claiming the elimination of a UAF UAV deploying area in Chernihiv region, showing a strike on vehicles, highlights RF's capability to conduct precision strikes using aerial assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Fighterbomber's video celebrating the Kazan Helicopter Plant projects RF's industrial and technological capacity for helicopter production, which supports military operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's videos from the Kharkiv direction, showing drone footage of destroyed UAF mortar positions, vehicles, and a downed 'Baba-Yaga' drone, demonstrate RF's continued capability for aerial reconnaissance and precision strikes against UAF ground assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) MoD Russia's video "Russian drone pilots lose no time" showcases FPV drone capabilities for ISR, target acquisition (armored vehicles, comms systems), and strike coordination, indicating sustained and advanced drone warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports RF MOD claims shooting down four Ukrainian drones (two over Rostov, Belgorod, two over Black Sea), demonstrating RF's active air defense capabilities against cross-border UAV threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's video claiming the destruction of a bridge in Krasnoarmeysk direction demonstrates RF's capability to conduct targeted infrastructure sabotage to disrupt UAF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Ground Operations (Zaporizhzhia Direction): Воин DV posts video claiming RF forces discovered and destroyed a German Leopard 2 tank on the Zaporizhzhia front. This demonstrates RF's ongoing capability to conduct effective anti-armor operations and leverage drone ISR for targeting high-value Western-supplied equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Air Activity/Alerts: The numerous alerts for missile and UAV threats in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Poltava, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts indicate RF's continued and widespread capability for aerial reconnaissance and strike missions across eastern and central Ukraine. The temporary flight restrictions at Volgograd airport suggest RF's capability to implement rapid air defense measures or internal security responses to perceived threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Defense Industry/Infrastructure: Fighterbomber's video of a new mechanization and processing plant at Kazan Helicopter Plant demonstrates RF's continued investment in and capability for domestic military-industrial production, specifically in rotary-wing aircraft. Kadyrov_95's video of large-scale construction in Grozny projects RF's capability for significant infrastructure development, which can have dual-use benefits for military logistics and internal control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Ground Operations (Konstantinovka): Сливочный каприз's photo and video from Konstantinovka, showing a tank being hit and burning, confirms RF's capability to detect and destroy UAF armored vehicles, likely through drone-guided strikes, in contested areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Counter-Espionage (Belarus): TASS and Два майора report the detention of a Polish spy in Belarus. This indicates RF/Belarusian capability for effective counter-intelligence operations against perceived Western espionage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Ground Operations (Konstantinovka Direction): Colonelcassad's video on the Konstantinovka direction, showing drone footage of a damaged/burning military vehicle, confirms RF's capability to apply sustained pressure and achieve tactical successes against UAF vehicles in this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Anti-Artillery (Kherson): Colonelcassad posts video claiming RF FPV drones destroyed a Ukrainian "Bohdana" 155mm wheeled self-propelled howitzer in the Kherson direction. This demonstrates RF's capability for targeted and effective anti-artillery operations using drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Concentrated Ground Offensive with Adaptive & Hybrid Tactics: RF can concentrate forces for localized gains and maintain intense pressure in urban environments (Kupyansk). DeepState confirms RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk. RF continues localized offensive actions on multiple axes (Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Yanvarske, Chervonaya Dibrova, Grigorievka, Pokrovsk). The adoption of anti-thermal imaging cloaks demonstrates an intent to circumvent UAF drone/thermal surveillance advantages. RF is preparing for a "final, decisive battle" for the rest of Donetsk Oblast, confirmed by Ukrainian and Finnish sources. RF milbloggers confirm active combat in the Pokrovsk direction and increased use of heavy equipment and small infantry groups for assaults on the Zaporizhzhia direction. RF also shows interest and potential in soldier enhancement technologies (Ant exoskeleton). RF is capable of promoting senior military officials to higher ranks, as seen with Magomed Daudov. "Operation Z" video of an FPV drone strike near Sumy border confirms active RF ground operations and drone use in the Sumy border region. Colonelcassad drone footage of high-precision strikes on UAF trench positions demonstrates RF's capability to systematically degrade UAF defenses to enable ground advances. Rybar's map-based analysis of the Shcherbinovka operations clearly indicates RF's capability to achieve tactical encirclement and territorial gains. Mash на Донбассе's video claiming the Russian army began assaulting Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicates RF's capability to launch ground assaults into new areas, supported by aerial assets. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF is using incendiary mixtures to set fires in LNR, implying RF's capability to detect and report such UAF tactics. Colonelcassad's video of alleged DRG capture in Bryansk Oblast demonstrates RF's counter-insurgency/counter-sabotage capabilities and border security. Воин DV posts a video claiming scouts located an enemy vehicle near Novoselivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, reflects RF's capability to conduct thorough reconnaissance ahead of or during offensive operations in that area. Воин DV (RF milblogger, Vostok Group of Forces) claims the "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, supported by video showing artillery strikes, damage, RF flags, and soldiers. This confirms RF's capability for significant territorial gains and offensive operations into new oblasts, potentially supported by heavy firepower. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's video, even from a UAF perspective, highlights RF's capability to employ anti-thermal cloaks for infiltration attempts, indicating an adaptive tactical approach. Два майора reports the "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by the "Vostok" Group of Forces, including unit identification (36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 29th Army). This indicates a specific RF unit with the capability to execute offensive ground operations, leading to claimed territorial gains. ТАСС reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have "liberated" Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This indicates RF's capability to conduct successful offensive operations and claim territorial gains in the Zaporizhzhia direction. Сливочный каприз's video from the Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka direction demonstrates RF's capability for combined arms operations involving aerial reconnaissance, artillery strikes, and ground movements to secure contested territory. ТАСС and Два майора report "complete liberation" of DNR territory" and continued offensive into Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. This indicates RF's capability to execute large-scale, multi-oblast offensive operations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF forces took control of a 5-hectare forest area in LNR, indicating capability for small-scale territorial gains. WarGonzo posts video of "Group Nemets" (291st Regiment) conducting drone reconnaissance and artillery strikes on UAF positions in Zaporizhzhia. Военкор Котенок confirms RF MoD claims of advancing "deep into enemy defenses" and "liberating" Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Colonelcassad posts video claiming "Vostok" Group of Forces liberated Novoselovka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Операция Z (Русская Весна) posts photo message of Leonid Slutsky visiting Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. Рыбарь posts a tactical map titled "Liberation of Novoselovka," depicting claimed RF advances and control. RF MoD claims the "Vostok" Group of Forces made ground and took Novoselovka under control in Dnepropetrovsk region. RF Kotsnews reports the Russian army liberated Novoselovka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF Alex Parker Returns reports two Ukrainian DRGs are being sought in Kaluga Oblast (Zhigra, Lyudinovo, Kirov regions). This indicates RF's capability for internal security operations against deep infiltration by UAF special forces. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts photo messages regarding the "Zaporizhzhia direction." БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video alleging a Russian occupier riding a motorcycle was targeted by a kamikaze drone. MoD Russia posts a photo message on the "progress of special military operation as of 4 September 2025." Два майора posts a series of photos, titled "Soldier's Daily Life," depicting a cat with camouflage gear and soldiers in a field environment. STERNENKO posts a video claiming another motorcyclist with a sidecar was destroyed by an FPV drone in the Pokrovsk direction. Colonelcassad posts a video claiming FPV drone crews of the RF 124th Separate Brigade of the RF Armed Forces consistently destroyed a Ukrainian DRG attempting to advance into the island zone of the Dnipro River. RF MOD - UKRAINIAN DRG DESTROYED (DNIPRO RIVER): TASS reports the RF Ministry of Defense states a Ukrainian DRG that attempted to land in the island zone of the Dnipro River was destroyed. RF - SUMY DIRECTION ADVANCE: Colonelcassad posts a video claiming "local advance in Yunakovka and front-line stability on the border" in the Sumy direction. RF - PZBH 2000 HOWITZER DESTROYED: "Воин DV" posts a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer. TASS - RF MOD CLAIMS DRG DESTRUCTION: TASS posts a video with the caption "Footage of the destruction of a Ukrainian DRG attempting to land in the island zone of the Dnipro." RF CONTROL OF DNIPRO DELTA ISLANDS (KHERSON): TASS reports that Saldo claims RF forces maintain control over islands in the Dnipro delta in Kherson Oblast. RF TACTICAL MAP - DONETSK/ZAPORIZHZHIA/DNIPROPETROVSK OFFENSIVE: Colonelcassad posts a tactical map claiming the front line after the "liberation" of the southwestern DNR, showing the offensive continuing into Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetropsk Oblasts. RF MILBLOGGER DRONE REQUEST: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video of an RF soldier requesting a Mavic 3 drone for reconnaissance and artillery spotting. UAF STRIKE ON RF TANK/ARTILLERY/ROBOTIC COMPLEX (DONETSK): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video claiming Phoenix unit operators of the State Border Guard Service (DPSU) destroyed an RF tank, artillery piece, and ground robotic complex in Donetsk Oblast. UAF FPV Drone Strike (Kherson): Шеф Hayabusa reports two RF occupiers were eliminated in the Kherson direction by an FPV drone strike. RF Air/Drone Strike on UAF Buggy (Vostok Group): Voin DV posts video claiming operators of the 69th Cover Brigade of the "Vostok" Group of Forces struck an enemy buggy. RF Bombing of Hospital/Village (Kostiantynivka): RBC-Ukraine reports RF dropped aerial bombs on a hospital in Kostiantynivka and a nearby village. RF MoD claims snipers of the 2nd Combined Arms Army (Tsentr Group of Forces) eliminated over 100 heavy strike drones of the AFU (referring to "Baba-Yaga" drones) in Krasnoarmeysk direction. RF Military Transportation Document Extension: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF MoD plans to increase the validity of military transportation documents from three to six months. UAF claims to have struck an RF ammunition depot in occupied Selydove. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF milblogger "Два майора" posts a map of the Zaporizhzhia front near Stepnohirsk. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO reports increased RF use of heavy equipment and small infantry groups for assaults on the Zaporizhzhia direction, supported by drone footage of strikes on RF positions and vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Finnish (Janus Putkonen) and Ukrainian sources (citing "Ukrainian propagandists") claim Russia has conducted its largest regrouping since 2022 and is ready for a decisive battle for Donbas, publishing intelligence maps. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad posts video of 155th Marine Brigade cadets undergoing an obstacle course, demonstrating physical fitness and teamwork, likely for morale/recruitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF fought Colombian mercenaries for two days, possibly as part of an IO effort to denigrate UAF and its foreign support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) MoD Russia reports servicemembers of the 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade (Vostok Group of Forces) are in Novoselovka, Dnipropetrovsk region. This confirms RF ground presence and activity on this new offensive axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports "active battles" in the Pokrovsko-Dobropolsk direction, indicating continued RF ground pressure and the capability to conduct sustained engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad posts a video showcasing the Russian NRTK "Courier" robotic platform equipped with a laser system for demining, demonstrating RF's capability to deploy advanced engineering systems for battlefield support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF observation and evacuation points were destroyed in the Druzhkovsky direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's videos from the Kharkiv direction, showing drone footage of destroyed UAF mortar positions, vehicles, and a downed 'Baba-Yaga' drone, demonstrate RF's continued capability for ground-support aerial reconnaissance and precision strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO's video from the Sieversk direction, showing drone strikes against a trench/dugout and a motorcycle, confirms ongoing heavy ground fighting in this area and UAF's active defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's video claiming the destruction of a bridge in Krasnoarmeysk direction demonstrates RF's capability for targeted destruction of UAF logistical infrastructure using explosives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Drone Funding/Innovation: "Два майора" posts a video promoting fundraising for "fiber optics" for drones, showcasing a 3D-printed payload delivery system capable of distances of 15-25 km. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Drone Threat (Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts): A UAV is reported on the border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with a northwest course, indicating persistent reconnaissance/strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Air Defense (Volgograd): The lifting of flight restrictions at Volgograd airport suggests RF has the capability to quickly assess and manage localized air threats, demonstrating responsive air control measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Drone Threat (Northern Ukraine): Shaheds are reportedly attacking Ukraine from the north, confirming RF's capability for multi-directional, large-scale drone attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Trump/Putin Photo): Janus Putkonen (RF-aligned source) posted a fabricated image of Trump and Putin at an "Alaska summit." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Alex Parker Returns - Internal Criticism): Alex Parker Returns' video regarding Leonid Volkov's departure from FBK, with anti-semitic undertones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Western Disunity - Bild): "Operation Z" reports EU leaders don't expect US sanctions against Russia, citing Bild. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Counter-Artillery (Donbas): Colonelcassad reports the destruction of a German 155mm PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer in Donbas by drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Casualties (Zaporizhzhia Direction): Colonelcassad claims the elimination of GUR Colonel Popovich Alexey (callsign "Borets"), commander of the 10th Separate Special Purpose Detachment, GUR, near Stepnohirsk. While an RF claim, it points to RF's capability for targeted engagements with high-value UAF personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Medical Evacuation Capability: Colonelcassad's video focusing on a combat medic and medical evacuation vehicle demonstrates RF's capability to provide medical support in combat zones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Rybar Situational Awareness: Rybar's daily tactical map highlights RF's capability to provide and control the narrative of military operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Drone Dominance Claim: TASS citing The National Interest's assessment of "Rubikon" drones claims RF's capability to severely disrupt UAF logistics and freedom of maneuver. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Combat Lasers): Colonelcassad's discussion on "combat lasers" suggests ongoing R&D and a future potential capability for directed energy weapons. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Humanitarian Aid Deployment: TASS reporting RF sending humanitarian aid to Afghanistan demonstrates the capability for long-range logistical deployment for non-military purposes, which can be adapted for military support if needed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Diplomatic Outreach (Kenya): TASS reporting on Kenya's interest in cooperation with Russia highlights RF's capability to expand its diplomatic and economic influence globally. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Domestic Aviation Industry: TASS reporting on the update of Russia's aircraft production program indicates RF's continued capability and intent to invest in and develop its domestic aviation industry. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Troop Deployment Potential (WSJ): TASS reporting on a Wall Street Journal article about a plan for 10,000 European troops in Ukraine developed with US involvement (from a European diplomat source) indicates RF's intelligence gathering on potential foreign troop deployments. This also frames it as an external capability that RF is monitoring and could react to. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Construction/Development (Donetsk): Operatsiya Z (via Русской Весны) reports on the creation of one of Russia's largest Youth Centers in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: Confirms RF's capacity for large-scale construction projects in occupied territories.
  • RF Humanitarian Aid (Donetsk): Operatsiya Z (via Русской Весны) provides video showing humanitarian aid collection and distribution in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: Demonstrates RF's capability to organize and deploy humanitarian relief in occupied areas, with an inherent IO component.
  • RF Pricing Control (Donetsk): Operatsiya Z (via Русской Весны) shows officials inspecting bottled water prices in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: Indicates RF's capacity for state-directed economic control and intervention in occupied territories.
  • RF Urban Development (Donetsk): Operatsiya Z (via Русской Весны) shows officials inspecting a construction site in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: Confirms RF's capability to undertake urban development projects in occupied regions.
  • RF Strike (Luhansk Oil Depot) - RF Confirmation: Operatsiya Z (via Русской Весны) posts photo messages confirming fire after a strike in Luhansk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: Indicates RF's capability to monitor and report on significant events within occupied territory, even those resulting from UAF action.

• Intentions:

  • Strategic Objective: Degrade Ukrainian Warfighting Capacity, Break National Resilience, and Undermine Western Support. RF intends to systematically target Ukraine's ability to produce and sustain military operations by striking defense industry, fuel, and railway infrastructure, while inflicting civilian casualties. RF aims to cripple Ukraine's ability to wage war, disrupt economic life, and sow public discontent. RF is focused on neutralizing UAF drone advantages through EW and targeting UAV infrastructure. Rybar's "Eyes on Orbit" videos could be intended to demonstrate RF's continued military prowess and a deterrent capability. Два майора's video showing an aerial strike on a small boat indicates RF's intent to interdict UAF riverine movements or special operations. MoD Russia's claim of neutralizing a Bradley IFV indicates RF's intent to specifically target and degrade Western-supplied armor and UAF personnel. MoD Russia's claimed strike on UAF UAV command post and strongholds in Krasnoarmeysk direction indicates an intent to directly degrade UAF C2 and fortified positions. The КАБ launches on Kharkiv Oblast indicate an intent to expand the deep strike campaign to further degrade UAF's ability to defend its northern territories and support ongoing ground operations. Народная милиция ДНР's claimed destruction of AFU positions, PVD, and antenna by 68th orb indicates an intent to actively dismantle UAF forward defenses and communication capabilities. Два майора's video claiming a Lancet strike on UAF artillery in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast shows RF's intent to systematically destroy UAF combat assets, particularly artillery, which pose a threat to RF ground operations. Colonelcassad's video from Bryansk border region showing ISR and strikes suggests an intent to deter or neutralize UAF cross-border activity and protect RF border security. Colonelcassad's video of a helicopter strike on a UAV command post in Kupyansk indicates an intent to directly target UAF UAV C2, aiming to degrade UAF drone operational effectiveness in this critical sector. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video from Krasnodar Krai and Rostov Oblast, suggesting UAF strikes, which RF will intend to deter or respond to. Kotsnews videos of Ukrainian artillery firing and RF artillery striking indicate an intent to engage UAF military assets and disrupt civilian life, respectively. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video from a Russian military vehicle's dashcam showing a Ukrainian "Bulava" drone hitting the car, which RF will intend to prevent and counter. RF MoD claims control of Novoselovka in Dnepropetrovsk region and Kotsnews reports its liberation. This indicates an explicit RF intent to expand territorial control westward into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. TASS video reports "Rubikon" operators struck 6 AFU armored vehicles and 3 Starlink stations. The intent is to degrade UAF ground combat capabilities by destroying armored vehicles and disrupt UAF communications by targeting Starlink terminals. Colonelcassad posts a text message claiming "burning out of a mobile UAV command post of the AFU in the Kupyansk area." This indicates an intent to specifically target and neutralize UAF drone command and control nodes, aiming to reduce UAF's drone operational effectiveness in the Kupyansk sector. RBC-Ukraine reports that Sumy and its district are without electricity due to a Russian army strike on critical infrastructure. This indicates RF's intent to degrade Ukrainian critical infrastructure and disrupt civilian life, likely to put pressure on the population and the government. RF MOD - UKRAINIAN DRG DESTROYED (DNIPRO RIVER): TASS reports the RF Ministry of Defense states a Ukrainian DRG that attempted to land in the island zone of the Dnipro River was destroyed. This indicates RF's intent to maintain control over the Dnipro River and its island zones, preventing UAF infiltration. RF DRONE STRIKE (WOODED AREA): "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts a video with the caption "Target destroyed, no survivors." This indicates an intent to eliminate enemy personnel and assets with precision strikes. RF - PZBH 2000 HOWITZER DESTROYED: "Воин DV" posts a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer. This indicates RF's intent to degrade UAF artillery capabilities, a key component of UAF's defense. TASS - RF MOD CLAIMS DRG DESTRUCTION: TASS posts a video with the caption "Footage of the destruction of a Ukrainian DRG attempting to land in the island zone of the Dnipro." This reinforces the intent to demonstrate RF's operational effectiveness in countering UAF special operations. RF ANIMATED STRIKE SCHEME: Colonelcassad's animated strike scheme confirms RF's intent to conduct sustained and widespread aerial operations across Ukraine, targeting various regions. RF IO - YOUTH SABOTAGE NARRATIVE: RF milblogger "Операция Z" (via Русской Весны) posts a narrative claiming children are used for sabotage by Ukraine. This indicates an intent to discredit Ukraine, potentially dehumanize its resistance, and sow internal distrust within Ukraine or among international supporters. RF CONTROL OF DNIPRO DELTA ISLANDS (KHERSON): TASS reports Saldo's claim of RF maintaining control over Dnipro delta islands in Kherson Oblast. This indicates RF's intent to secure strategic riverine territories and reinforce its defensive posture in the Kherson direction, denying UAF riverine operations. RF IO - DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN ENERGY/ODESA BLOCKADE: Colonelcassad posts a video by Rojin on "Destruction of Ukrainian energy, robodogs and naval blockade of Odesa." This indicates RF's intent to project its capabilities and strategic goals of crippling Ukrainian energy infrastructure and naval access. RF Ballistic Missile Strike on Humanitarian Mission (Chernihiv): The confirmed ballistic missile strike on humanitarian demining personnel in Chernihiv, while possibly a targeting error, demonstrates an intent to strike in the area, and even if unintentional, it serves to increase pressure and fear, and disrupt humanitarian efforts. RF Air/Drone Strike on UAF Buggy: Voin DV posts video claiming operators of the 69th Cover Brigade of the "Vostok" Group of Forces struck an enemy buggy. RF Bombing of Hospital/Village (Kostiantynivka): RBC-Ukraine reports RF dropped aerial bombs on a hospital in Kostiantynivka and a nearby village. RF's airspace violations over Poland, if intentional, indicate an intent to probe NATO air defenses, test response times, or demonstrate a disregard for the sovereignty of neighboring states, potentially as a form of intimidation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The strike on a hospital in Kostiantynivka and the deaths in Illinivka demonstrate an intent to inflict widespread damage and casualties, consistent with a strategy of undermining civilian morale and support for the UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF's Vostok Group receiving Mavic 3 drones indicates an intent to rapidly deploy COTS technology to maintain and improve battlefield ISR and precision strike capabilities for ground operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Moskalkova's statement on the return of Kursk residents from Sumy shows an intent to engage in humanitarian diplomacy, possibly to extract concessions or project a humane image to internal or international audiences. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The new UAF Air Force report of a strike UAV threat in Poltava Oblast and aviation weapon use in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia indicates RF's continued intent to maintain aerial pressure across various regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF claims of discovering a drug lab under Ukrainian special services near Novosibirsk indicates an intent to delegitimize Ukraine, attribute illicit activities, and justify internal security operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The damaged bridge and urban strike on the Zaporizhzhia front (Stepnohirsk) indicates RF's intent to degrade UAF defensive infrastructure and apply direct pressure on this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO reporting increased RF use of heavy equipment and small infantry groups for assaults on the Zaporizhzhia direction confirms RF's intent to intensify ground pressure in this critical sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF MoD's claim of destroying a UAF long-range UAV preparation and launch point with an Iskander in Chernihiv Oblast is a clear intent to reframe the attack on the humanitarian demining mission as a legitimate military strike, seeking to deflect accusations of war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The Prosecutor General's Office report on torture and robbery by RF servicemen in Kherson confirms RF's intent to engage in widespread war crimes, including looting and abuse of civilians, as part of their occupation strategy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Dnipropetrovsk ODA reporting sustained FPV drone and artillery attacks in Nikopol region indicates RF's intent to continue harassing and pressuring civilian areas proximate to the front lines, likely to impact morale and potentially to cover ground movements or fix UAF forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO (Воин DV) using Ukrainian military imagery for "SVO fighters don't advise bad things!" is an intent to co-opt narratives and potentially recruit from Ukraine, or demoralize by blurring lines. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF's demonstration of the "Courier" laser demining system indicates an intent to mitigate minefield threats for its own advancing forces and to project technological superiority. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF's destruction of the Lozovaya substation in Kupyansk direction clearly shows an intent to degrade UAF energy infrastructure and disrupt support to forces in that sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The MoD Russia video claiming elimination of a UAF UAV deploying area in Chernihiv region demonstrates an intent to reinforce their narrative of a legitimate military target, further solidifying their justification for the strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO (Alex Parker Returns) highlighting demographic shifts in Yekaterinburg schools and a lack of Russian children is intended to foster nationalist sentiment and anti-immigrant narratives, potentially mobilizing internal support for a more aggressive state policy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO (Басурин о главном) drawing parallels to the Cuban Missile Crisis demonstrates an intent to escalate the perceived threat of the conflict to a global level, implicitly threatening nuclear escalation, and justifying RF actions as defensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) AV БогомаZ's (Bryansk governor) claim of "another vile crime of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" indicates an intent to immediately attribute blame to Ukraine for alleged cross-border attacks, fostering anti-Ukrainian sentiment and justifying RF's own aggressive actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO (Alex Parker Returns) highlighting inter-ethnic tensions in Poland, using derogatory terms, is intended to sow discord among migrant groups, undermine the perception of Ukrainian integration in Europe, and divert attention from RF's own actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА) crowdfunding for drones, showing burnt drones and lamenting low collection, indicates an intent to galvanize public support and resources for RF military efforts, suggesting a high attrition rate for drones and a persistent need for resupply. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO (Рыбарь) reflecting on the SMO's impact ("The SMO changed a lot") signals an intent to manage internal expectations about the conflict's long-term effects and potentially to lay groundwork for new policy narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO (Alex Parker Returns) highlighting "Pavlo's" offense with the West is an intent to portray discord within Ukrainian leadership or with Western partners, aiming to undermine UAF's international relationships. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Kotsnews IO on "Two worlds - two Shapiro" is intended for internal RF audiences, promoting cultural or political narratives, possibly satirical. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's daily summary reflects an intent to maintain narrative control for internal RF audiences. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's video claiming the destruction of a bridge in Krasnoarmeysk direction demonstrates RF's intent to actively degrade UAF logistical capabilities and disrupt front-line resupply. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Drone Funding/Innovation: "Два майора" posts a video promoting fundraising for "fiber optics" for drones, showcasing a 3D-printed payload delivery system capable of distances of 15-25 km. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Drone Threat (Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts): The reported UAV on the border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts moving northwest indicates RF's intent for continuous aerial surveillance or localized strike missions in a newly active operational area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Drone Threat (Northern Ukraine): The report of Shaheds attacking Ukraine from the north indicates RF's intent to maintain multi-directional aerial pressure, likely targeting critical infrastructure or military assets in northern regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Trump/Putin Photo): Janus Putkonen's fabricated image of Trump and Putin at an "Alaska summit" is a clear IO attempt to sow discord within the Western alliance and project a false narrative of a US-Russia rapprochement, undermining support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Alex Parker Returns - Internal Criticism): Alex Parker Returns' video regarding Leonid Volkov's departure from FBK, with anti-semitic undertones, reveals RF's intent to discredit opposition figures through hateful and divisive rhetoric, particularly targeting those with perceived Western ties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Western Disunity - Bild): "Operation Z"'s amplification of the Bild report that EU leaders don't expect US sanctions despite Trump's call with the "coalition of the willing" is a direct IO attempt to highlight perceived Western disunity and weaken confidence in a unified front against Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Counter-Artillery (Donbas): Colonelcassad's report on the destruction of a German 155mm PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer by drones in Donbas demonstrates RF's intent to systematically degrade UAF's Western-supplied artillery capabilities, which are crucial for UAF's defensive operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Trump/Putin Photo - Operatsiya Z): Operatsiya Z (via Russkaya Vesna) amplifying the fabricated Trump/Putin "Alaska summit" photo is a further intent to sow discord and false narratives within the Western alliance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Ukrainian Refugees in Canada): Alex Parker Returns' posts and video on Ukrainian refugees in Canada, using derogatory language and miscontextualized violence, is a clear intent to demoralize and sow despair among Ukrainians abroad, while also fueling xenophobia in host nations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Trump/Putin/Zelenskyy Meeting): TASS reporting Witkoff's statement about Trump's readiness to meet with Putin and Zelenskyy indicates an RF intent to project a willingness for dialogue, potentially to divide the Western alliance or pressure Ukraine into negotiations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Combat Lasers): Colonelcassad's link to "combat lasers" is an IO attempt to signal technological superiority and a potential future escalation, possibly as a psychological deterrent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Humanitarian Aid (Afghanistan): TASS reporting humanitarian aid to Afghanistan is an RF IO effort to project a positive international image and expand its influence beyond the immediate conflict, particularly to counter accusations of war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Western Disunity - Axios): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (citing Axios) reports Trump "lashed out at Europe" and shifted responsibility for pressure on Putin, indicating RF's intent to exploit and amplify perceived fissures within the Western alliance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Diplomatic/Economic Influence (Kenya): TASS reporting Kenya's interest in cooperation with Russia reflects RF's intent to expand its global diplomatic and economic reach, particularly in the Global South, and project an image of international engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Domestic Aviation Industry Focus: TASS report on updating Russia's aircraft production program indicates an intent to bolster domestic industrial self-sufficiency and military-industrial capacity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Intelligence Gathering/Reaction to Foreign Troop Deployments: TASS reporting on a Wall Street Journal article about a plan for 10,000 European troops in Ukraine (developed with US involvement) indicates RF's intent to monitor and potentially react to significant foreign military presence in Ukraine. This information will likely be used to justify RF's own escalatory actions as a defensive response to perceived NATO aggression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Construction/Development (Donetsk): Operatsiya Z (via Русской Весны) reports on the creation of one of Russia's largest Youth Centers in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: Demonstrates RF's intent to integrate and culturally indoctrinate occupied regions, fostering long-term loyalty and projecting a image of development.
  • RF Humanitarian Aid (Donetsk): Operatsiya Z (via Русской Весны) provides video showing humanitarian aid collection and distribution in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: RF intends to use humanitarian efforts as a tool of soft power and legitimization in occupied territories, addressing critical needs while securing political influence.
  • RF Pricing Control (Donetsk): Operatsiya Z (via Русской Весны) shows officials inspecting bottled water prices in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: RF intends to exert control over local economies in occupied territories, presenting itself as a responsible administrator concerned with public welfare, thus undermining Ukrainian governance.
  • RF Urban Development (Donetsk): Operatsiya Z (via Русской Весны) shows officials inspecting a construction site in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: RF intends to physically reshape occupied areas, rebuilding and modernizing infrastructure to consolidate its control and project an image of progress and integration into Russia.
  • RF Strike (Luhansk Oil Depot) - RF Confirmation: Operatsiya Z (via Русской Весны) posts photo messages confirming fire after a strike in Luhansk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: RF intends to control the narrative around UAF deep strikes, acknowledging them while framing them as attacks by the "enemy" to reinforce its own victimhood narrative and justify retaliatory actions.

• Courses of Action (COAs):

  • MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action):

    1. RF will continue to **maintain intense offensive pressure on the Sieversk axis to achieve an operational encirclement. RF will likely commit its main effort to seizing full control of Kupyansk, escalating urban combat and attempting to interdict UAF reinforcements, capitalizing on its confirmed presence and infiltration attempts in the city, and capitalizing on fragmented UAF defenses, and conducting reconnaissance-in-force toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF will actively promote claims of UAF surrender in Kupyansk through its IO, even if unverified. RF will seek to consolidate and exploit claimed gains around Kamyshevakha to advance further in Donetsk Oblast, potentially threatening access to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF will attempt to exploit claimed control of Yanvarske and its current assaults on Novoselivka to further advance westward in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, establishing new forward positions and potentially securing key logistical routes, explicitly aiming to strengthen fire pressure on Velikomikhailovka. RF will also likely prepare for offensive operations in the Kherson direction, evidenced by claims of UAF mining Karantynny Island, aiming to seize further territory in southern Ukraine, and consolidating claims of control over Dnipro delta islands. RF will continue localized ground advances, as reported near Chervonaya Dibrova and Grigorievka, and now including a 5-hectare forest in LNR, to achieve small tactical gains and probe UAF defenses. RF milbloggers will continue to provide "Frontline summaries" to frame these operations. RF will actively seek to disrupt UAF logistics via further strikes on railway infrastructure and will continue air-launched КАБ strikes, expanding to new areas like Donetsk Oblast and Sumy Oblast, and specifically targeting UAF defense industry, and will continue indiscriminate shelling/drone attacks on civilian population centers (e.g., Kostiantynivka, Nikopol region, Chuhuiv community, Odesa/Fontanka, Pokrovsk), including use of FPV drones. RF will likely attempt to conduct further strikes on transportation infrastructure to disrupt UAF logistics and movement. RF will continue to actively target UAF UAV operator locations and UAV launch points. RF will continue to target educational facilities, as evidenced by the "Molniya" UAV strike on a Kharkiv university, and humanitarian demining missions, as seen in Chernihiv (now reframed by RF as a legitimate military target through IO, while claiming destruction of UAF observation/evacuation points in Druzhkovka). New Shahed threats in Donetsk Oblast and towards Belozerske/Dobropillya are consistent with this. UAF special forces operations in Sumy Oblast are a new dynamic to this MLCOA, with RF likely to counter these incursions with increased security or fire. RF will continue to utilize anti-thermal imaging cloaks to facilitate covert infiltration operations. RF will continue to use heavy unguided munitions like FAB-3000 against suspected UAF strongpoints or troop concentrations. RF forces have made their largest regrouping since 2022 and are preparing for a "decisive battle" for the rest of Donetsk Oblast, according to UAF assessment and Finnish/Ukrainian sources. Bloomberg also reports RF preparing a new offensive against Ukraine. RF will continue to repel UAF assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. RF will continue drone-guided strikes on fortified positions and personnel, particularly on the Zaporizhzhia front, using heavy equipment and small infantry groups. RF will continue to develop and promote military innovations such as the "Ant" exoskeleton. RF milbloggers will continue to call for public support and crowdfunding for ground forces. RF will continue to employ ATGMs (e.g., Fagot) against UAF armored vehicles and ground positions. RF will continue UAV operator training, as observed in the Konstantinovsky direction, to sustain and improve drone warfare capabilities. RF will actively seek to interdict and capture Ukrainian DRG (sabotage and reconnaissance groups) operating in its border regions, as evidenced by the claimed capture in Bryansk Oblast, and by the reported search for DRGs in Kaluga Oblast, and will exploit these incidents for IO. RF special forces will actively conduct reconnaissance missions in new operational areas, such as west of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, to support and precede ground assaults. RF will continue its offensive into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, solidifying claimed control over Novoselivka and probing further westward. RF will attempt to consolidate claimed control of Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF will continue ground operations in the Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka direction. RF MoD will claim "complete liberation of DNR territory" and a continued offensive into Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, focusing on securing administrative borders and expanding zones of control. RF will continue to use drone-guided artillery strikes on UAF positions in Zaporizhzhia. RF will intensify a new large-scale offensive in the east, deploying additional units to Donetsk Oblast. RF will aggressively push to consolidate control in Novoselovka, Dnipropetrovsk region, and expand operations further west. RF will likely increase drone (FPV) and kamikaze drone (UAV) strikes against UAF light vehicles, motorcycles, and personnel on the ground, as observed in the БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video. RF will continue to publish daily updates on the "progress of special military operation" to frame the overall narrative of its ground operations. RF will continue to interdict UAF DRG movements, particularly in riverine island zones. RF will maintain localized ground advances in the Sumy direction. RF will seek to identify and destroy high-value UAF artillery systems such as the PzH 2000. RF will leverage Rojin's commentary on the "naval blockade of Odesa" to project capability and strategic intent. RF will also continue its counter-drone operations using snipers and thermal sights, as claimed in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. RF will also continue aerial bombing of civilian targets, as demonstrated by the strike on Kostiantynivka hospital. RF will likely increase efforts to interdict UAF counter-logistics operations, such as the reported strike on an RF ammo depot in Selydove. RF's Vostok Group of Forces will continue to rely on COTS drones (e.g., Mavic 3) for reconnaissance and combat support, indicating a persistent adaptation to modern drone warfare, while potentially supplementing its own drone production capabilities. RF will continue to enforce the replacement of vehicle registration documents in "Novorossiya" to solidify its control over occupied territories. RF will continue to develop and deploy specialized engineering equipment, such as the "Courier" laser demining system, to clear obstacles and facilitate ground advances. RF will actively target UAF logistical choke points, as evidenced by the bridge destruction in Krasnoarmeysk direction, to impede resupply to the front lines. RF will continue to actively target and destroy Western-supplied heavy equipment, as demonstrated by the claimed destruction of a Leopard 2 tank on the Zaporizhzhia front, for both tactical advantage and IO. RF will continue its anti-artillery operations, using FPV drones to target high-value UAF systems like the Bohdana in the Kherson direction. RF will continue fierce ground battles in the Pokrovsk direction, burning UAF equipment and infantry, as reported by "Operation Z." RF will continue active battles in the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya direction. RF will also continue to destroy Western-supplied artillery, as confirmed by the destruction of a PzH 2000 in Donbas. RF will attempt to exploit any perceived UAF command and control disruptions following the claimed elimination of GUR Colonel Popovich Alexey in the Zaporizhzhia direction. Confidence: HIGH
    2. RF will conduct **sustained, medium-to-high volume drone and missile strikes, with a heightened focus on defense industry, fuel, and railway infrastructure targets, alongside opportunistic strikes on population centers resulting in civilian casualties, and now also targeting educational institutions and humanitarian demining missions (which RF will likely reframe as legitimate military targets), and a renewed focus on Odesa/Fontanka from the Black Sea with a large group of Shaheds. Although the latest wave against Odesa was successfully intercepted, RF will likely launch subsequent waves. Expect continued ballistic missile launches from the northeast and south (Tuzly/Mykolaivka), high-speed targets on Sumy (another explosion reported) and Myrhorod, and КАБ launches on Zaporizhzhia (as indicated by the new alert), and now additionally targeting Kharkiv Oblast (Iziumskyi district) and Donetsk Oblast. Expect the use of FAB-3000 to become a more regular feature against suspected UAF strongpoints or troop concentrations. RF will also continue aerial strikes on UAF riverine/naval assets. RF will continue to test missile/rocket launch capabilities, as seen in Rybar's "Eyes on Orbit" videos. Expect continued targeting of critical infrastructure, logistics hubs, and military installations across Ukraine. RF will leverage claimed "modernized drones" and precision munitions like Lancet to target UAF military assets. The new ЛМУР strike on a UAF UAV launch point is indicative of RF's continued focus on degrading UAF drone capabilities. New UAV groups targeting various Ukrainian regions are consistent with this COA, including the newly reported UAV on the Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk border and Shaheds from the north. New Shahed threats in Donetsk Oblast and towards Belozerske/Dobropillya are also consistent with this. New КАБ launches on Sumy Oblast extend this aerial threat. The UAV strike in Krasnodar Krai may provoke increased RF air defense measures or a more aggressive posture for cross-border strikes. RF will also claim successful interception of Ukrainian UAVs over its territory (e.g., Rostov Oblast) to project defensive capabilities. RF will also leverage its diverse drone capabilities, including "Rubikon" air defense combat groups, for enhanced reconnaissance and target acquisition. The newly detected UAV group from northern Sumy to Chernihiv Oblast is consistent with this sustained aerial reconnaissance and strike COA. RF will also actively employ electronic warfare (EW) to counter UAF drone activity, particularly on the Zaporizhzhia front. RF will continue to defend its airspace against UAF cross-border UAV strikes. RF attacked with 112 UAVs overnight, with 28 UAVs confirmed to have reached their targets, indicating continued capacity for large-scale, adaptive aerial assaults. RF milbloggers will continue to claim higher numbers of downed Ukrainian drones. RF will continue to express concerns about UAF's alleged development of ground-based cruise missiles. RF will continue to employ long-range artillery systems, such as 2S44 Giatsint-K, for precision strikes against UAF command posts, strongholds, and other fixed targets, particularly in contested areas like Krasnoarmeysk. RF will continue to strike UAF UAV command posts, particularly in the Kupyansk tactical direction, using helicopter assets. RF will continue to target civilian areas in Zaporizhzhia (4 wounded) and Orikhiv (2 wounded), Druzhkivka (7 wounded), and Kozacha Lopan (2 killed, 2 wounded) with drones/artillery, resulting in further casualties. RF will likely intensify ISR and potentially strikes near its northwestern border, in response to NATO ISR flights. RF will continue FPV drone operations against UAF communications infrastructure. RF will likely respond to UAF deep strikes into Krasnodar Krai and Rostov Oblast with increased missile/drone activity or enhanced border security. RF will continue to utilize long-range artillery against UAF self-propelled howitzers and other assets. RF will actively counter UAF drone strikes on its military vehicles. RF will increase drone and missile strikes in northern regions (Chernihiv, Sumy) and potentially use long-range artillery against targets such as bridges/infrastructure, as seen in the milblogger videos (Malva/Genocide claim). RF will specifically target UAF armored vehicles and Starlink satellite communication terminals with drones, as demonstrated by the "Rubikon" operators, aiming to degrade UAF's mobility and C2 capabilities. RF will sustain strikes on critical infrastructure, exemplified by the power outage in Sumy. RF will likely adapt its drone tactics based on acoustic recognition systems. RF will continue to use drone-guided precision strikes against concealed targets in wooded areas. RF will continue to use tactical aviation to destroy high-value UAF artillery. RF's animated strike scheme confirms intent for widespread aerial operations. RF will continue to conduct ballistic missile strikes on Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Chernihiv, as indicated by recent alerts and impacts. RF will increase air defense measures in border regions to counter cross-border incursions, following the reported drone violation of Polish airspace. RF Air Force threats in Chernihiv, Kyiv, and Poltava Oblast, and aviation weapon use in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia, indicate continued aerial surveillance and strike activity in these regions. RF will leverage the destruction of Western-supplied armored vehicles (e.g., M113AS4 ALV in Kharkiv, Leopard 2 in Zaporizhzhia) in its IO to undermine confidence in foreign aid and to project its own military superiority. RF will likely respond to the UAF deep strike on the Luhansk oil depot (now confirmed by RF sources) with increased long-range strikes against Ukrainian energy or logistical infrastructure. RF will warn its forces and populace about new UAF drone capabilities, as exemplified by the "new enemy drone" striking the rear. RF will maintain aerial surveillance and potential strike capabilities in northern Ukraine, as indicated by the UAV detected in Chernihiv Oblast. RF will impose temporary flight restrictions in additional border regions (e.g., Penza Oblast, Lipetsk Oblast) to enhance internal security and air defense. RF will continue targeted UAV and missile strikes in Kharkiv Oblast, as seen in Khotimlya and Lozovenka. RF will intensify counter-UAS operations in the Sumy direction, actively using measures like drone-catching nets. RF will continue to fund and develop long-range fiber optic drones for deep strikes against UAF targets. RF will continue to launch UAVs from the Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk border region, likely for reconnaissance and localized strikes, and will maintain Shahed attacks from the north. Confidence: HIGH
    3. RF Information Operations will heavily amplify claims of ground victories and frame Western support as escalatory and a sign of weakness/disunity (e.g., "Coalition of the Resolute" divisions, Witkoff's early departure, Trump's statements on oil/China, Kallas's comments on RF/China narrative, Italy/Poland not sending troops, US cutting defense aid to border countries, and new Axios report on Trump "lashing out at Europe"). Narratives will focus on discrediting Ukrainian leadership (e.g., "children for sabotage," "Ukrainian drug labs," German election conspiracy theories, Zelenskyy as "military dictator," "Colombian mercenaries," "Narcissist" comments, Alaudinov on future Ukrainian president, anti-semitic undertones in Alex Parker Returns' posts, "Ukrainian refugees" in Canada, including the knife attack video) justifying RF actions with threats (Putin's "resort to weapons" statement, Cuban Missile Crisis parallels, "combat lasers" discussions), and projecting RF's economic and military resilience (e.g., Shilka parade, RF not paying insurance is false, Putin thanking China for visa-free travel, Durov's historical revisionism, Kazan Helicopter Plant anniversary, main news summaries, Gref's Ruble outlook, Kazan Helicopter Plant, Grozny construction, military medical care, domestic aviation industry updates). Diplomatic outreach to non-Western nations (China, DPRK, Russian-Arab summit, humanitarian dialogue with Ukraine via Moskalkova, Afghanistan aid, Kenya cooperation) will continue to solidify an anti-Western bloc. RF will maintain tight internal information control in border regions (Belgorod governor's directives) and use social media to influence public opinion, including new VK channels. IO will also highlight internal Ukrainian challenges (TCC incident, "peaceful preaching" sentencing, humanitarian tragedy like Lisbon funicular, anti-occupier school songs, and RBC-Ukraine amplifying disinformation) and Western instability (e.g., German election conspiracy theories, Washington suing Trump administration). RF will enforce administrative measures in occupied territories (vehicle registration). RF IO will leverage cultural news and celebrity events (Armani death, Hemingway, Efremov, "Beer Nemarathon", orangutan death, Huawei smartphone launches) to project normalcy and divert attention from the conflict. RF IO will likely intensify negative portrayals of migrant groups within Russia, as seen with Rybar's "Uzbek ethnic crime" video, and use narratives of demographic shifts (Yekaterinburg school) to stir nationalist sentiment. RF will continue to highlight domestic humanitarian appeals to humanize its military (e.g., Staromlynovka baby delivery) and internal security efforts (Investigative Committee investigation of serviceman's house fire, Bryansk governor's claims, detention of infant abandonment suspect). RF will attempt to monitor and respond to internal dissent (Strelkov's posts, Alaudinov's "rejecting" those who oppose SMO). RF will attempt to co-opt Ukrainian military imagery for its own IO. RF IO will continue to use crowdfunding appeals for drones, implicitly acknowledging high attrition. RF IO will promote historical narratives that support its current geopolitical stance. RF will actively seek to exploit any signs of discord between European leaders and the US, particularly regarding Trump's statements, to further divide the transatlantic alliance. RF will promote new geopolitical alignments (USA, Russia, China, India alliance) to project global influence and undermine Western unity. RF IO will utilize internal/cultural references (e.g., "Two worlds - two Shapiro") for internal consumption or satire. RF will continue its daily summaries to maintain narrative control for internal audiences. RF IO will leverage the detention of a Polish spy in Belarus to demonize Western intelligence efforts and justify their own aggressive posture. RF IO will also try to minimize the impact of negative internal developments such as war veterans committing crimes. RF IO will leverage the UN's "shocked" reaction to the Chernihiv strike to justify its own narrative of the attack as legitimate (UAV launch point) and to deflect international criticism. RF IO will use the report of ten countries ready to send 30,000 troops to Ukraine as further evidence of Western escalation and direct involvement, feeding anti-Western narratives. RF IO will use the new UAF drone striking civilian infrastructure (bus stop/kiosk) in the rear as a justification for its own targeting of civilian areas and to portray UAF as engaging in similar tactics. RF IO will continue to use narratives of US withdrawal from Russian borders to project RF geopolitical success and undermine Western unity. RF IO will use the Luhansk oil depot strike (now confirmed by RF) to portray Ukraine as attacking civilian infrastructure or as reckless, potentially as a justification for further RF strikes. RF IO will continue to project normalcy through civilian events, such as sports results, to manage internal morale. RF IO will amplify reports of a "heated conversation" between Trump and European leaders to highlight Western disunity. RF will continue daily summaries of events by milbloggers like Rybar to control the narrative. RF IO will specifically use the fabricated Trump-Putin "Alaska summit" photo to create a narrative of US-Russia rapprochement and sow division in the Western alliance. RF IO will continue to showcase drone strike footage (e.g., "Rubikon") to project military effectiveness and psychological impact. RF IO will continue to highlight its humanitarian efforts (Afghanistan aid) to project a positive international image. RF will also actively work to track and counter the narrative around the potential deployment of 10,000 European troops, framing it as an escalation by NATO. RF will use urban development and humanitarian aid efforts in occupied Donetsk to project stability and legitimacy, countering narratives of destruction and neglect. Confidence: HIGH
    • Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
      1. Massive Escalation of Cross-Border Aggression and Hybrid Attacks against NATO States: Following a significant battlefield setback or perceived Western escalation (especially in response to the reported 10,000 European troops), RF conducts a coordinated, large-scale cyberattack against critical infrastructure (energy, telecommunications, financial systems) in a NATO frontline state (e.g., Poland, Baltic states), combined with a massed, conventional deep strike (missiles and drones) targeting military installations and command centers in the same or adjacent NATO states. This kinetic attack would be augmented by intentional and repeated incursions of combat aircraft and armed drones into NATO airspace, testing Article 5 and aiming to provoke a kinetic response while creating confusion and sowing doubt about NATO's resolve and unity. Simultaneously, RF special forces conduct overt and covert sabotage operations against critical infrastructure or military targets within NATO countries. This would be accompanied by an aggressive global IO campaign blaming NATO for escalating the conflict, potentially using fabricated evidence of NATO preparations for invasion or direct military involvement in Ukraine. The intent would be to fracture NATO, deter further support for Ukraine, or compel NATO to negotiate on RF terms. The Cuban Missile Crisis IO serves as a stark warning of this potential. The destruction of a bridge on the Krasnoarmeysk direction could be a precursor to clearing the way for ground advances, by isolating UAF forces on the opposite side. The heightened RF IO around "decisive battle" and Alaudinov's comments on future Ukrainian leadership suggest a strategic intent that could underpin such an MDCOA. The reported readiness of ten countries to send up to 30,000 soldiers to Ukraine could be interpreted by RF as a significant escalation warranting such an MDCOA, as it represents a direct increase in foreign military presence within Ukraine. RF IO regarding US withdrawal from Russian borders and the detention of a Polish spy in Belarus provides justification for increasing aggressive posture against NATO states. The recent fabricated Trump-Putin "Alaska summit" photo is a pre-positioning IO effort to frame any future US-Russia de-escalation as a sign of RF strength or a betrayal of Ukraine, or to justify an escalatory action by blaming internal Western divisions. RF's discussion of "combat lasers" is another subtle threat projection that could support such an MDCOA. Confidence: MEDIUM
      2. Targeted Chemical/Biological Attack and Cyber-Enabled Destruction of Ukraine's Emerging DIB: RF launches a limited, targeted chemical or biological agent attack (e.g., a non-lethal but highly disruptive agent against a population center or a military supply hub, possibly disguised as an industrial accident or false flag) to sow panic and disorder. This is precisely coordinated with a sophisticated, multi-vector cyberattack to disrupt Ukraine's nascent defense industrial base (DIB), particularly the announced FP-7/FP-9 ballistic missile and air defense development facilities and their supply chains. The cyberattack would aim to erase design data, cripple production capabilities, and disrupt distribution networks. This would be immediately followed by precision conventional strikes on remaining DIB infrastructure, exploiting the chaos caused by the hybrid attack. RF IO would amplify narratives of Ukrainian "drug labs" or "unsafe facilities" to justify the attack, while promoting disinformation to external audiences to deflect blame and undermine international support. Confidence: LOW

• Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

  • Immediate (0-24 hours): RF will likely launch a follow-on wave of drones and/or missiles within the next 24 hours, focusing on critical infrastructure, particularly in Sumy and Kharkiv, and potentially new targets in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (given the new alert). UAV activity on the Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk border and Shahed attacks from the north indicate these threats are active now. UAF will prioritize rapid deployment of reserves to the Novoselivka-Velikomikhailovka axis and attempt to contain the RF breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia. NATO/Poland will be at a heightened state of alert due to the airspace violation, a critical window for de-escalation or further escalation. The loss of Captain Sviridov and potentially Colonel Popovich may necessitate immediate leadership adjustments in the 210th OSHP and GUR special operations. UAF will likely intensify deep strikes against RF logistical targets, following the success at the Luhansk oil depot and the RF quad bike/ammo depot. Negotiations for the release of the UAF mortar crew in Klishchiivka will be critical. The implications of 10 countries sending 30,000 troops will be a major discussion point for all parties. UAF will continue to implement and expand its echeloned anti-Shahed system. UAF will continue to leverage its online drone operations scoreboard for public transparency and morale. The confirmed destruction of a PzH 2000 in Donbas requires immediate BDA and assessment of its impact on UAF capabilities. RF will likely continue aerial targeting of Sumy city, as indicated by the active UAV alert. RF will closely monitor international reactions to the potential 10,000 European troop deployment to Ukraine.
  • Short-Term (24-72 hours): RF will attempt to consolidate gains in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia Oblasts and intensify ground assaults in Kupyansk/Sieversk. UAF will likely launch significant counter-battery and deep strikes against RF assets supporting these new offensives, and seek to interdict RF logistics on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. The impact of the US defense aid cuts (if confirmed as reported by TASS/RBC-Ukraine) could begin to influence Western decision-making on future support packages. The meeting between Fico and Zelenskyy is a key diplomatic event within this window. Germany's commitment of equipment for four Ukrainian brigades will begin to be factored into UAF defensive planning. RF IO will continue to try and reframe the Chernihiv strike and counter the narrative of foreign troop contributions, specifically using the fabricated Trump-Putin photo, amplifying perceived Western disunity, and leveraging statements about Trump's readiness to meet. International outcry (DRC statement) over the Chernihiv strike will continue. RF's domestic aviation industry update signals a mid-term focus on industrial capacity.
  • Mid-Term (1-2 weeks): RF's "largest regrouping since 2022" suggests preparation for a sustained, large-scale offensive in the Donbas and potentially further westward. The operational success (or failure) of the Novoselivka push will significantly inform RF's next phase. UAF's ability to hold and counter in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia will be critical. The "Coalition of the Resolute" will finalize security guarantees, a key decision point for long-term UAF capabilities.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

• Ukrainian force posture and readiness:

  • Resilient Defense & Counter-Offensive Operations: UAF maintains a defensive posture under intense pressure in key sectors (Sieversk, Kupyansk), actively denying significant RF breakthroughs while conducting localized counter-actions. UAF denies RF control of Kupyansk city center, confirming only infiltration attempts that are being countered. Forces in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts are now facing a new axis of RF ground offensive, requiring rapid adaptation and deployment of reserves. UAF units continue to engage Russian BMPs in Zaporizhzhia and conduct active defense in the Nikopol region. The successful UAF deep strike on the Luhansk oil depot and the RF quad bike/ammo depot demonstrates continued offensive capabilities against RF logistics. The capture of 9 RF soldiers by 4 UAF soldiers on their first mission is a significant morale booster and indicates continued combat effectiveness at the small unit level. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The UAF mortar crew from 93rd Brigade captured in Klishchiivka after resisting an assault highlights the difficult and dangerous conditions faced by UAF and the potential for personnel losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Air Defense & Counter-UAS: UAF air defense is operating under extreme pressure, demonstrating significant interception capabilities (84 out of 112 UAVs shot down overnight, all Shaheds on Odesa intercepted) but is still facing infrastructure damage and casualties. UAF has secured additional air defense systems from Nordic/Baltic countries, and Germany plans to provide equipment for four Ukrainian brigades, bolstering future capabilities. UAF is actively establishing an echeloned "anti-Shahed" system, as confirmed by Syrsky. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF continues to actively monitor and respond to missile threats (Zaporizhzhia Oblast missile alert). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Tactical Innovation & Domestic DIB: UAF continues to demonstrate tactical innovation with ground robotic complexes and EW-resistant FPV drones, indicating adaptability to modern warfare challenges. The announcement by "Fire Point" of FP-7 and FP-9 ballistic missile and air defense system development is a significant step towards enhancing long-range strike and integrated air and missile defense (IAMD) capabilities. UAF has developed an online drone operations scoreboard, indicating transparency and focus on drone warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Special Operations: UAF special forces (Shybenyk Squad, 2nd Assault Company, Kraken) are actively conducting "rusorez" operations in Sumy Oblast, indicating cross-border deep strike and reconnaissance capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The claimed elimination of GUR Colonel Popovich Alexey (callsign "Borets") near Stepnohirsk, if confirmed, represents a significant loss of a high-ranking GUR special forces officer, potentially impacting UAF special operations capabilities and morale in a critical sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Logistics & Resilience: Ukraine launches its largest port investment project, signaling long-term economic resilience and strategic logistical planning. Restoration of fresh water to Mykolaiv is a significant infrastructure victory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Mobilization & Internal Security: The Verkhovna Rada is reinstating criminal liability for unauthorized absence (СЗЧ) while simplifying return to service, indicating efforts to manage manpower and discipline. Reports of gunfire on a TCC group near Lutsk suggest localized internal security challenges or resistance to mobilization efforts. UAF is implementing transparency measures like body cameras for TCC groups. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Leadership & Morale: High-level leadership (Zelenskyy, Minister of Defense, regional governors) are actively engaged with frontline units and diplomatic efforts. UAF General Staff provides regular operational updates. There is strong public support for crowdfunding military efforts. POW family meetings continue, demonstrating commitment to personnel welfare. The resilience of children attending school in underground classrooms in Kharkiv highlights national determination. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • War Crime Documentation & Accountability: Prosecutor General's Office continues to document and investigate RF war crimes, including torture and robbery in Kherson, contributing to legal accountability efforts. Internal anti-corruption efforts continue at regional levels and within SBU leadership. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Recent tactical successes or setbacks:

  • Successes:
    • Successful Interceptions: UAF successfully intercepted 84 out of 112 RF UAVs overnight, including all 14 Shaheds targeting Odesa/Fontanka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Deep Strikes: Successful UAF strike on the Luhansk oil depot and an RF quad bike/ammunition depot. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF also claims significant destruction of RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Tactical Innovation: Demonstrated deployment of EW-resistant FPV drones on the Zaporizhzhia front and NC13 ground robotic complexes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Special Operations: Successful "rusorez" operations by special forces in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Air Defense Counter: Destruction of an S-300V SAM system in Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Engagement Success: Phoenix unit operators (DPSU) destroying an RF tank, artillery, and ground robotic complex in Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Morale Boost: Capture of 9 RF soldiers by 4 UAF soldiers on their first mission. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Setbacks:
    • RF Ground Advance (New Axis): RF claims of "liberation" of Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk) and Novoselovka (Zaporizhzhia) indicate a significant, new RF offensive axis and territorial gains, posing a major challenge to UAF. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on extent of RF control; HIGH CONFIDENCE on RF offensive action).
    • Loss of Key Personnel: Claimed elimination of GUR Colonel Popovich Alexey (callsign "Borets") near Stepnohirsk, if confirmed, would be a significant loss for UAF special operations. The death of Captain Artem Sviridov in Zaporizhzhia is a confirmed loss. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Critical Infrastructure Damage: Power outage in Sumy due to RF strike, warehouse fire in Odesa, and damage in Sloviansk and Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Civilian Casualties: Confirmed fatalities in Illinivka, and wounded in Zaporizhzhia, Orikhiv, Druzhkivka, and Kozacha Lopan from RF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Humanitarian Target: Ballistic missile strike targeting a humanitarian demining mission in Chernihiv resulted in casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Loss of Equipment: Destruction of a Leopard 2 tank and a PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer on the Zaporizhzhia front and in Donbas, respectively. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • POW Incident: Ukrainian mortar crew from 93rd Brigade captured by RF in Klishchiivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Internal Security Incident: Gunfire on a TCC group near Lutsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Resource requirements and constraints:

  • Air Defense: Continued high demand for modern Western air defense systems (missiles and launchers) to counter sustained RF missile and drone attacks, particularly in the face of expanded RF targeting and high volume attacks. Germany's commitment of equipment for four brigades is crucial. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Artillery Ammunition/Systems: Ongoing requirement for 155mm artillery ammunition and counter-battery systems given persistent RF shelling and the loss of systems like the PzH 2000. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Anti-Armor: Urgent need for anti-tank guided missiles and anti-armor platforms to counter RF ground advances, especially in the new Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia axis, following the loss of a Leopard 2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Drones & Counter-Drone Technology: Continued need for FPV drones (especially EW-resistant variants), reconnaissance UAVs, and counter-UAS systems to maintain battlefield advantage and protect forces. The new online drone operations scoreboard emphasizes this need. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Personnel & Training: Sustained requirement for trained personnel, particularly special forces and drone operators, and for rapid replacement of casualties. The TCC incident highlights potential challenges in mobilization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Logistical Support: Capacity to repair damaged infrastructure (power grid, railways, ports) and maintain supply lines under sustained attack. Port investment project indicates long-term logistical planning. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • International Military Support: Critical ongoing need for continued military aid, training, and intelligence sharing from Western partners. The reported plan for 10,000 European troops would significantly augment manpower. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Humanitarian Aid/Demining: Increased resources for demining operations and protection for humanitarian personnel are urgently required following the Chernihiv strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

• Propaganda and disinformation campaigns:

  • RF Strategy: RF continues a multi-pronged IO campaign to:

    • Legitimize occupation and project normalcy: Demonstrated by the planned Youth Center, humanitarian aid (water distribution), pricing controls, and urban development projects in occupied Donetsk. These aim to show RF as a benevolent and capable administrator. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Fabricate/Amplify Western Disunity: Continued amplification of fabricated images (Trump/Putin "Alaska summit"), mischaracterization of diplomatic exchanges (Trump "lashing out" at Europe, Witkoff's statements on Trump meeting Putin/Zelenskyy, Bild report on EU leaders not expecting US sanctions), and selective reporting on aid cuts (US cutting defense aid to border countries). This aims to sow discord within NATO and among Western publics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Demonize Ukraine & Justify RF Actions: Narratives accusing Ukraine of using "children for sabotage," running "drug labs," "fighting Colombian mercenaries," and portraying Zelenskyy as a "military dictator" or "Narcissist." Reframing the Chernihiv strike on humanitarian aid workers as a legitimate military strike on a "UAV launch point." Highlighting internal Ukrainian challenges (TCC incident, "peaceful preaching" sentencing) and Western humanitarian tragedies (Lisbon funicular) to deflect criticism. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Project RF Military & Economic Resilience/Strength: Showcasing military innovations (Ant exoskeleton, "Courier" demining robot, "combat lasers" discussion), industrial capacity (Kazan Helicopter Plant), successful drone operations ("Rubikon" drones, FPV drone footage, claims of high UAF drone destruction), and economic development (EEF, military pensions, energy financing, Grozny construction). Promoting geopolitical alignment with non-Western powers (China, DPRK, Kenya, Afghanistan aid). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Control Internal Narrative: Daily summaries by milbloggers, tight information control in border regions (Belgorod), and efforts to manage expectations about the SMO's impact ("The SMO changed a lot"). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Exploit Internal Western Vulnerabilities: Fueling anti-immigrant and nationalist sentiments within Russia (Yekaterinburg schools, Rybar's "Uzbek ethnic crime") and highlighting perceived inter-ethnic tensions in Poland. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Escalatory Rhetoric/Threat Projection: Drawing parallels to the Cuban Missile Crisis, discussing "combat lasers," and monitoring potential foreign troop deployments in Ukraine to justify preemptive or escalatory actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Counter UAF Deep Strikes: Immediate RF confirmation and framing of the Luhansk oil depot strike by the "enemy" is aimed at controlling the narrative and justifying potential retaliation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

  • UAF Counter-IO Efforts: UAF and its allies are actively:

    • Promoting Transparency & Accountability: Publicly reporting on RF war crimes (Kherson torture), detailing military losses, providing daily operational updates, and launching an online drone operations scoreboard. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Highlighting International Support: Zelenskyy's diplomatic engagements (Coalition of the Resolute, call with Trump/Macron, Macron press conference) emphasize strong, formal security guarantees and military aid (Germany's four brigades, 10 countries ready to send 30,000 troops). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Demonstrating Resilience & Adaptability: Showcasing tactical innovations (EW-resistant FPV drones, ground robots), domestic DIB development (Fire Point missiles), and civilian resilience (underground schools). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Condemning RF War Crimes: Danish Refugee Council and UN expressing "shock" and condemnation of the Chernihiv strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Countering Disinformation: RBC-Ukraine reporting on Trump's fabricated photo with Putin shows an attempt to expose RF disinformation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Public sentiment and morale factors:

  • Ukrainian Public: High public support for crowdfunding (e.g., "Let's activate!") and strong national identity (Cherkasy school song) persist despite continued RF strikes and casualties. Resilience is evident in communities like Kharkiv maintaining education in underground classrooms. However, sustained attacks on critical infrastructure (Sumy power outage), civilian areas (Kostiantynivka, Nikopol, Zaporizhzhia), and humanitarian missions could erode morale over time. The TCC incident in Volyn suggests some localized resistance or challenges to mobilization, which could impact broader public sentiment if not managed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Russian Public: RF IO actively attempts to boost morale by portraying military successes (liberation claims, high UAF drone destruction), highlighting humanitarian efforts (Donetsk, Afghanistan), economic stability (military pensions, EEF), and technological prowess. IO efforts also try to humanize soldiers (combat medic video) and mobilize support (crowdfunding for drones). Narratives around "children for sabotage" aim to harden public opinion against Ukraine. Water shortages in occupied Donetsk, even with RF aid, highlight ongoing civilian hardship that could negatively impact sentiment despite IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • International Community: Strong condemnation of RF actions (Chernihiv strike by DRC/UN, Polish airspace violation) indicates sustained international pressure. However, RF's persistent IO attempting to sow doubt about Western unity (Trump's statements, aid cuts) and project an image of global influence could create fissures. The potential deployment of 10,000 European troops to Ukraine could be a morale booster for UAF and a strong signal to RF, but could also be framed by RF as an escalation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• International support and diplomatic developments:

  • Ukraine's Allies:
    • Continued Military Aid: Germany plans to provide equipment for four Ukrainian brigades, and Nordic/Baltic countries are providing additional air defense. The UK has directed over $1 billion from frozen Russian assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Security Guarantees: Zelenskyy actively engaging in "Coalition of the Resolute" to finalize long-term, legislated security guarantees. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Diplomatic Engagement: Zelenskyy's call with Trump and Macron, Fico's planned meeting in Uzhhorod, and continued meetings with US Embassy representatives (POW issues) demonstrate active, high-level diplomatic efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Potential Troop Contribution: Reports that ten countries are ready to send up to 30,000 soldiers to Ukraine represent a significant potential increase in direct international military support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Condemnation of RF Actions: DRC, UN, and Denmark's Foreign Ministry condemn the Chernihiv strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF's Diplomatic Efforts:
    • Anti-Western Bloc Consolidation: Putin's visit to China, cooperation with DPRK (military transport aircraft), Russian-Arab summit, and outreach to Kenya and Afghanistan indicate efforts to build a multipolar, anti-Western alliance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Narrative Control: Zakharova's statements framing Ukrainian security guarantees as "danger" for Europe, and reports of a Polish spy in Belarus, aim to discredit Western support and expand anti-NATO narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Humanitarian Diplomacy: Moskalkova's engagement on return of Kursk residents and aid to Afghanistan project a more humane image internationally. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Exploiting Western Divisions: RF IO leverages reports (e.g., Axios, Bild, Witkoff's statements) to highlight perceived disunity within the Western alliance, especially concerning Trump's influence and aid commitments. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

• Most likely enemy courses of action (MLCOA):

  1. Sustained Ground Offensive on New Axes: RF will prioritize consolidating and expanding its claimed gains in Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) and Novoselovka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). This will involve continued reconnaissance-in-force, localized assaults with heavy equipment and small infantry groups, and attempts to establish more robust forward positions, explicitly aiming to strengthen fire pressure on Velikomikhailovka. Simultaneously, intense pressure will be maintained on the Kupyansk-Sieversk axis, with RF pushing to seize full control of Kupyansk through urban combat and attempting to encircle UAF forces. RF will continue localized advances near Chervonaya Dibrova and Grigorievka, and in the LNR forest area, to achieve tactical gains. RF will also continue preparations for offensive operations in the Kherson direction, solidifying control over Dnipro delta islands. RF milbloggers will actively frame these operations as significant "liberations" and advances, while RF IO will amplify claims of UAF surrenders. RF will counter UAF special forces incursions in Sumy Oblast. RF will continue to use anti-thermal imaging cloaks for infiltration and FAB-3000s against strongpoints. RF will leverage its "largest regrouping since 2022" for a decisive battle in Donbas. RF will actively interdict and capture Ukrainian DRGs in border regions and exploit these for IO. RF will continue to degrade UAF logistical choke points, as evidenced by the bridge destruction in Krasnoarmeysk. RF will systematically target Western-supplied heavy equipment, as demonstrated by the Leopard 2 and PzH 2000 destruction. RF will exploit any perceived UAF C2 disruptions following the claimed GUR Colonel casualty. Confidence: HIGH
  2. Adaptive & High-Volume Multi-Domain Strikes: RF will continue sustained drone and missile attacks, adapting its targeting based on operational needs and intelligence. Primary targets will remain Ukraine's defense industry, fuel infrastructure, and railway networks, with an increased focus on energy grids (e.g., Sumy). Expect opportunistic strikes on population centers, leading to civilian casualties (e.g., Zaporizhzhia, Orikhiv, Druzhkivka, Kozacha Lopan). RF will persist in targeting educational institutions and humanitarian missions, while reframing these as legitimate military targets through IO. There will be renewed, and likely more adaptive, large-scale Shahed attacks from the Black Sea towards Odesa/Fontanka and from the north, as well as new UAV groups targeting Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts (including Iziumskyi district). Ballistic missile launches from northeast and south (Tuzly/Mykolaivka), and high-speed targets on Sumy and Myrhorod will continue. КАБ launches will persist on Zaporizhzhia and expand to Kharkiv Oblast. Expect more frequent use of heavy unguided munitions (FAB-3000). RF will maintain its robust air defense posture over its own territory (e.g., Rostov, Volgograd, Penza, Lipetsk) to counter UAF deep strikes. RF will increase EW operations to counter UAF drones, particularly on the Zaporizhzhia front. RF will develop and deploy long-range fiber optic drones for deep strikes against UAF targets. Confidence: HIGH
  3. Aggressive Information Warfare & Diplomatic Realignment: RF will intensify its IO to fracture Western unity, discredit Ukraine, and project an image of RF strength and global influence. This includes continued amplification of fabricated narratives (Trump-Putin photo, Western disunity, Trump's statements), demonization of Ukraine (children for sabotage, drug labs, corruption), and justification of its actions (reframe Chernihiv strike). RF will exploit any confirmed Western aid cuts or perceived divisions. RF will increase diplomatic outreach to non-Western nations (Africa, Asia) to solidify an anti-Western bloc and challenge the current international order. RF will continue to invest in and promote its domestic military-industrial complex and infrastructure projects in occupied territories (Donetsk Youth Center, urban development) to project normalcy and long-term control. RF will monitor and counter international reactions to potential European troop deployments in Ukraine, framing them as escalatory. Confidence: HIGH

• Most dangerous enemy courses of action (MDCOA):

  1. Direct Hybrid Attack on NATO Member (Baltics/Poland): Following a perceived significant escalation (e.g., deployment of European troops to Ukraine, major UAF deep strike on RF territory), RF initiates a multi-vector hybrid attack against a frontline NATO state. This includes a large-scale cyberattack on critical infrastructure (power grids, telecommunications, financial systems), kinetic strikes using missiles and drones on military bases and C2 nodes, and highly provocative airspace violations by combat aircraft and armed drones designed to test NATO's Article 5 response. Simultaneously, RF special forces conduct overt sabotage operations within the targeted NATO country. A sophisticated IO campaign would accompany this, blaming NATO for the escalation and asserting RF's right to self-defense, potentially referencing historical parallels like the Cuban Missile Crisis. The aim would be to create a crisis within NATO, compel de-escalation on RF terms, or deter further support for Ukraine. The reported Polish airspace violation, RF's ongoing IO around "decisive battle," and the significant potential of European troop contributions to Ukraine increase the likelihood of RF pursuing such a risky MDCOA. The detention of a Polish spy in Belarus and the "USA's withdrawal from Russia's borders" narrative are pre-positioning IO efforts for this scenario. Confidence: MEDIUM
  2. Tactical Nuclear Demonstration/Attack with Pre-emptive Escalation against Ukraine: Faced with significant battlefield losses or the collapse of a key front (e.g., Donbas), RF conducts a limited, tactical nuclear demonstration (e.g., an atmospheric test over remote territory or a low-yield strike against an unpopulated area within Ukraine) to coerce Ukraine and its allies into an immediate ceasefire and negotiations on RF terms. This would be preceded by an intense global IO campaign justifying the action as a necessary measure to prevent "existential threats" or "NATO invasion." Simultaneously, RF launches massive conventional strikes against remaining Ukrainian military and governmental C2 nodes, aiming to decapitate leadership and paralyze response. Confidence: LOW

• Timeline estimates and decision points:

  • Immediate (0-24 hours):
    • RF Decision Point: Assess UAF defensive posture and response to the Novoselivka/Novoselovka breakthroughs. Decision on immediate exploitation or consolidation.
    • RF Decision Point: Evaluate international response to the Chernihiv strike and Polish airspace violation. Decision on further provocative actions or de-escalation rhetoric.
    • UAF Decision Point: Allocate immediate reserves and conduct counter-operations on the new Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia axis.
    • UAF Decision Point: Implement and accelerate "anti-Shahed" system development and deployment, particularly in Sumy and Northern Ukraine.
    • International Decision Point: NATO/Poland to determine the nature and intent of the airspace violation and coordinate a response.
  • Short-Term (24-72 hours):
    • RF Decision Point: Assess effectiveness of current air/ground operations in Kupyansk/Sieversk and new southern axes. Decide on commitment of additional forces for a "decisive battle" for Donbas.
    • UAF Decision Point: Evaluate impact of Western aid cuts (if confirmed) and prioritize resource allocation.
    • International Decision Point: Fico-Zelenskyy meeting results to inform regional diplomatic efforts. Germany's equipment provision to begin influencing UAF defensive planning.
    • RF Decision Point: React to confirmed UAF deep strikes on Luhansk oil depot with retaliatory measures or intensified IO.
  • Mid-Term (1-2 weeks):
    • RF Decision Point: Initiate large-scale offensive operations in the Donbas, potentially expanding westward, based on the "largest regrouping since 2022."
    • UAF Decision Point: Consolidate new defensive lines on the Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia axis and execute sustained counter-battery/deep strike operations.
    • International Decision Point: "Coalition of the Resolute" to finalize security guarantees, providing long-term framework for UAF capabilities. Potential deployment of 30,000 European troops would be a major inflection point.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize ISR and Counter-Offensive Planning for Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia Axis: Immediately re-task all available ISR assets (UAV, IMINT, SIGINT) to precisely map RF force disposition, composition, and intent along the new Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia axis (Novoselivka-Velikomikhailovka). Develop and execute rapid counter-offensive plans to stabilize the front, interdict RF reinforcements, and deny consolidation of gains.
   • Action: Surge ISR (UAV, IMINT, SIGINT) to map RF unit locations, strength, and logistics in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Focus specifically on the UAV activity reported on the border of these two oblasts and RF urban/development activities in occupied Donetsk, as these might indicate logistical hubs or long-term consolidation efforts.
   • Action: Develop and pre-position dynamic targeting packages for high-value RF targets (C2, logistics, heavy armor, including newly identified Leopard 2 kill-sites and confirmed PzH 2000 kill-site, and the RF quad bike/ammo depot strike location) to be delivered by long-range precision fires immediately upon target confirmation.
   • Action: Prepare and rapidly deploy mobile reserves to reinforce threatened sectors along the new axis, prioritizing anti-armor and counter-infiltration capabilities, recognizing the adaptive tactics (anti-thermal cloaks) RF is employing.
   • Action: Integrate EW-resistant FPV drones, produced domestically or supplied by allies, into defensive and offensive operations along this axis to counter RF advances.
   • Action: Immediately review and bolster UAF tank and anti-armor defenses in the Zaporizhzhia direction following the Leopard 2 loss and heavy artillery defenses following the PzH 2000 loss.
   • Action: Conduct an immediate BDA on the claimed elimination of GUR Colonel Popovich Alexey; if confirmed, rapidly implement leadership succession plans and assess the impact on GUR special operations in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
2. Intensify Counter-UAS and Air Defense Modernization: Accelerate the implementation of Syrsky's echeloned counter-Shahed system. Prioritize the procurement and deployment of modern air defense systems from Western partners (e.g., Nordic/Baltic countries, Germany) to protect critical infrastructure and population centers, particularly in high-threat areas like Sumy, Kharkiv, and the newly threatened Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
   • Action: Push for expedited delivery of promised air defense assets, including those from Germany.
   • Action: Allocate immediate resources for the research, development, and mass production of indigenous counter-UAS technologies, including kinetic and non-kinetic systems, potentially incorporating lessons from Polish "PLargonia" development, and specifically addressing the extended range capabilities highlighted by RF's fiber optic drone fundraising. Prioritize defenses against Shahed attacks from the north and active UAVs over Sumy (given the new active alert).
   • Action: Enhance passive air defense measures around critical infrastructure (camouflage, hardening, redundancy) and civilian populations (e.g., continuation/expansion of underground schools).
   • Action: Immediately disseminate intelligence on the "new enemy drone" identified by RF, assessing its capabilities and developing countermeasures.
3. Elevate Threat Warning and Protection for Humanitarian/NGO Personnel: Reissue and enforce a high-priority threat warning to all humanitarian organizations and NGOs operating in Ukraine, emphasizing the confirmed RF intent to target such missions (e.g., Chernihiv).
   • Action: Facilitate rapid review and enhancement of OPSEC, movement protocols, and protective measures for all humanitarian operations, taking into account the DRC statement.
   • Action: Engage international partners (especially Denmark and the UN, following their condemnation and the DRC statement) to publicly condemn RF targeting of humanitarian missions and demand adherence to international humanitarian law.
4. Strategic Diplomatic Engagement to Counter RF IO on Western Support: Actively monitor and counter RF IO narratives regarding Western disunity and aid reductions (e.g., US defense aid to border countries). Proactively communicate the reality of continued, robust international support to maintain domestic and international confidence.
   • Action: Provide daily, transparent updates on all international military and financial aid received, emphasizing its impact on the battlefield. This can be supported by leveraging the new UAF Online Drone Operations Board for public information on tactical successes.
   • Action: Engage Western diplomatic channels to directly counter RF narratives about divisions and ineffectiveness within the "Coalition of the Resolute," particularly concerning Trump's statements (including the Axios report on Trump's "lashing out" at Europe), Witkoff's early departure, and RF's new "USA, Russia, China, India alliance" narrative. Specifically address and debunk the fabricated Trump-Putin "Alaska summit" photo (including its amplification by Operatsiya Z and RBC-Ukraine) and Operation Z's amplification of the Bild report, and RF narratives around Trump's readiness to meet. Actively frame the reported potential deployment of 10,000 European troops as a measure of international solidarity and support, rather than escalation.
   • Action: Highlight RF's internal economic challenges (e.g., Ruble outlook, confirmed water shortages in occupied Donetsk despite RF aid) and the impact of sanctions to counter RF's narratives of resilience.
   • Action: Prepare specific counter-IO in response to RF's exploitation of Western equipment losses (e.g., Leopard 2, PzH 2000) by emphasizing the overall effectiveness and continued supply of Western aid.
   • Action: Leverage condemnation from allies (e.g., Denmark, UN) to rally further international support and funding.
   • Action: Proactively shape the narrative around the reported commitment of 30,000 foreign troops, emphasizing international solidarity and adherence to international law, while preparing for RF counter-IO.
   • Action: Develop strong counter-narratives to RF's dehumanizing portrayal of Ukrainian refugees and Western countries, as seen in Alex Parker Returns' recent posts.
5. Targeted Counter-Logistics Operations on Krasnoarmeysk and Eastern Axis: Following the claimed destruction of the bridge in Krasnoarmeysk and the successful strike on the Luhansk oil depot and the RF quad bike/ammo depot, immediately assess the impact on UAF and RF logistics. If confirmed as RF action, develop and execute targeted counter-logistics operations to deny RF the ability to similarly disrupt UAF supply lines, and to exploit RF logistical weaknesses.
   • Action: Conduct rapid BDA on the destroyed bridge to confirm RF responsibility and assess the degree of impact.
   • Action: Prioritize intelligence collection on RF bridge-building/repair capabilities and alternative logistical routes in the Krasnoarmeysk direction.
   • Action: Identify and target RF engineering units, equipment, and materials deployed for such sabotage or repair operations.
   • Action: Exploit the Luhansk oil depot strike and the RF quad bike/ammo depot strike by continuing to target RF fuel and ammunition depots, particularly those supporting the new Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia axis.
6. Develop Counter-Narratives to RF Dehumanization Campaigns: Actively and consistently counter RF propaganda that attempts to dehumanize Ukrainian forces or its international partners (e.g., "children for sabotage," "Colombian mercenaries," "Narcissist" narratives).
   • Action: Proactively release verified information and human interest stories that highlight the professionalism and dedication of Ukrainian servicemen and the ethical standards of its allies. Utilize the Cherkasy school incident as an example of popular resistance and national pride.
   • Action: Work with international human rights organizations to expose and condemn RF's use of inflammatory and dehumanizing language, including the anti-semitic undertones in Alex Parker Returns' IO and his derogatory portrayal of Ukrainian refugees.
   • Action: Address RF's internal IO (e.g., Alaudinov's statements) that attempt to shape Ukraine's future political landscape, by reaffirming Ukraine's sovereignty and self-determination.
   • Action: Actively promote stories of UAF heroism and resilience, such as the mortar crew's resistance in Klishchiivka, to counter RF claims and boost morale.
   • Action: Proactively highlight RF's IO efforts to legitimize its control and foster loyalty in occupied territories (e.g., Donetsk Youth Center, humanitarian aid, pricing controls, urban development) as blatant attempts to colonize Ukrainian land and erase Ukrainian identity, linking these actions to ongoing war crimes and human rights abuses.

//END REPORT//