Situation Report

SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - 042030Z SEP 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: RF deep strikes continue to target Ukraine's defense industry and railway infrastructure, with a new claimed strategic strike against a UAV/Artillery electronics enterprise in Khmelnytskyi. Civilian targeting remains high, with confirmed deadly artillery/FPV drone strikes on Kostiantynivka (including a hospital and nearby village, resulting in 2 fatalities in Illinivka), sustained attacks on the Nikopol region (Nikopol, Marhanetska, Myrivska, Pokrovska, Chervonohryhorivska communities), and Kharkiv Oblast, and new casualties in Zaporizhzhia (total 4 wounded), Orikhiv (2 wounded), and Druzhkivka (7 wounded), as well as two killed and two wounded in Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast. Ballistic missile threats are active, with new alerts for Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, and Sumy, including high-speed targets on Kyiv. A ballistic missile strike in Chernihiv Oblast specifically targeted employees of a humanitarian demining mission, resulting in one fatality and two wounded, which RF now claims was a UAF UAV launch point destroyed by an Iskander. Ground operations are intensely focused on Sieversk and Kupyansk. RF continues to claim significant gains and even UAF surrenders in Kupyansk, while UAF actively denies these claims and demonstrates successful counter-actions; DeepState confirms RF presence and infiltration attempts, though UAF maintains RF lacks "firm control" over the city center. RF milblogger claims report children being used for sabotage by Ukraine, a significant and dangerous escalation of IO targeting. RF claims "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (with video evidence from "Vostok" Group of Forces and Colonelcassad) and Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (MoD RF claim via TASS and Voenkor Kotenok). Colonelcassad claims "Vostok" Group of Forces has "completely liberated" DNR territory and is now advancing into Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. TASS reports Saldo's claim of RF maintaining control over Dnipro delta islands in Kherson Oblast. RF also claims new assaults on Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), supported by UAV footage. RF also claims to have neutralized a Bradley IFV and a field ammunition depot with a Fagot ATGM, and to have detained an SBU agent in Kherson Oblast engaged in espionage. UAF reports the destruction of an S-300V SAM system in the Zaporizhzhia direction. UAF demonstrates tactical innovation with ground robotic complexes and EW-resistant FPV drones, secures additional air defense from Nordic/Baltic countries, and maintains significant domestic artillery/drone production. Ukrainian company Fire Point announces development of ballistic missiles (FP-7, FP-9) and air defense systems. Diplomatic and information warfare efforts continue, with UAF securing further Western support and RF attempting to sow discord and amplify anti-Western narratives. Putin concluded his China visit, making several statements regarding Ukraine, NATO, and economic cooperation with China, projecting a dual message of "peace" vs. "military solution." RF is actively conducting artillery strikes in the Kharkiv direction, with confirmed casualties. NATO ISR aircraft activity is reported near Kaliningrad/Belarus border, indicating heightened regional vigilance. European leaders, including Zelenskyy and Macron, are scheduled for a call with Trump, highlighting continued high-level diplomatic engagement. RF IO is heavily pushing narratives of Ukrainian corruption. New RF drone group activity in Chernihiv region, southwestern direction. UAF has successfully downed a "Gerbera with a rear-view camera" drone. UAF successfully destroyed RF D-20 artillery and a 2S3 self-propelled howitzer with drone strikes. New Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast. UAF special forces (Shybenyk Squad, 2nd Assault Company, Kraken) are conducting operations in Sumy Oblast. RF continues to use BM-21 Grad MLRS. Ukraine launches its largest port investment project, indicating economic resilience and long-term planning. Ukrainian forces report Russians are using anti-thermal imaging cloaks for infiltration tactics. RF IO emphasizes Putin's conditional willingness to meet Zelenskyy in Moscow, contrasting with Zelenskyy's statements on Ukraine's "Korean Scenario" and the need for US security guarantees. RF IO also focuses on internal control in Belgorod concerning UAV attack information. UAF claims significant destruction of RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reports a power outage in Krasnodar Krai due to a UAV strike. RF IO is leveraging discussion of a "frozen conflict" for Ukraine. RF IO is pushing a narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. RF drones originating from Donetsk Oblast are now reported on course for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF sources continue to claim significant advances in Kupyansk, with UAF sources also confirming RF infiltration and presence, albeit noting a lack of "firm control" over the city center, and indicating fragmented UAF defense. RF UAV group detected in Southern Sumy Oblast, moving west. RF UAVs on course for Poltava Oblast. Several groups of RF UAVs detected in northern Kharkiv Oblast (Chuhuiv Raion). RF military transport aircraft confirmed arriving in North Korea, with coffins draped in North Korean flags visible, suggesting potential military assistance or return of personnel. Explosion heard in Chuhuiv community, Kharkiv Oblast. RF reports five Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Rostov Oblast. New groups of RF UAVs are inbound from the Black Sea towards Odesa/Fontanka. The air raid alert for Odesa and Chornomorsk has been lifted following successful UAF interception of all incoming Shahed UAVs. The Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) continues in Vladivostok. RF is actively promoting a rise in military pensions and a continued increase in the 2026 budget, signaling long-term commitment to military personnel welfare. RF is also discussing financing for new energy generation in the Far East. RF IO is now actively countering claims of Western support for Ukraine, with Maria Zakharova stating that Ukraine's security guarantees are "guarantees of danger" for Europe. Colonelcassad reports a FAB-3000 strike on a UAF Forward Operating Base (FOB). Russian milbloggers "Two Majors" and "Parisan56rus" are providing footage from the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction. Russian milblogger "Operation Z" (via Russkaya Vesna) released a video on "Electronic Warfare (EW) strike" on the Zaporizhzhia front. UAF General Staff provides updated estimated RF combat losses. UAF reports two UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF sources claim UAF forces are mining houses on Karantynny Island (Kherson). RF Ministry of Defense claims 46 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions and the Black Sea. UK has directed over $1 billion from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. Aftermath of drone attack on Odesa: fire in a warehouse, no casualties. Trump states that Putin and Zelenskyy are not yet ready for a peace agreement. RF Ministry of Defense reports an additional four UAVs shot down over Volgograd Oblast. Colonelcassad posts drone footage of high-precision strikes on UAF trench positions by operators of the 5th Army Group "Vostok." Rybar provides a map-based analysis video of RF offensive operations in the Shcherbinovka area (between August 12-31, 2025). TASS reports RF military advances near Chervonaya Dibrova (LNR) and control of 5 hectares of forest near Grigorievka (DNR). Zvиздец Мангусту provides a brief summary from various directions and considerations regarding events on the Dobropillya direction, specifically mentioning the Sieversk (Slavyansk) direction and potential regrouping for the Pokrovsk assault. ASTRA reports China has not confirmed Putin's statements about "Power of Siberia-2." Operatsiya Z (Russkaya Vesna) reports RF air defense shot down 46 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. Два майора posts a video (18+) with "18th Combined Arms Army" insignia, showing an aerial strike on a small boat with personnel in water. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of enemy UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving southwest. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video claiming that drones attacked 17 Russian oil refineries in August. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posts a photo message stating "84 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed." ASTRA reports that Ukraine's Air Force states Russia attacked with 112 UAVs overnight, and UAF neutralized 84 of them. Шеф Hayabusa posts photos of damage in Sloviansk and Odesa after night attacks. RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia is preparing a new offensive against Ukraine, citing Bloomberg. UAF General Staff reports repelling 5 RF army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction.

• NEW DEVELOPMENTS (042000Z - 042030Z SEP 25):

  • RF Drone Threat (Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts): A UAV is reported on the border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with a northwest course. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: This indicates continued RF aerial reconnaissance or strike activity across these regions, consistent with ongoing ground pressure and deep strike campaigns.
  • RF Air Defense (Volgograd): Restrictions on aircraft reception and release at Volgograd airport have been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: This suggests a temporary threat or operational situation in Volgograd has been resolved, or the risk level has decreased, potentially indicating a lull in perceived UAF drone activity in that specific area.
  • UAF IO (School Event): A video from Cherkasy school showing students singing an anti-occupier song with profanity highlights a continued civilian, grassroots resistance and nationalistic sentiment within Ukraine's information environment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: This reinforces Ukrainian societal resilience and anti-RF sentiment, likely aimed at domestic morale and international perception.
  • RF Drone Threat (Northern Ukraine): Shaheds are reportedly attacking Ukraine from the north. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: This indicates renewed RF drone activity from a northern axis, posing a threat to Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy regions, consistent with previous multi-directional drone attacks.
  • RF IO (Trump/Putin Photo): Janus Putkonen (RF-aligned source) posted a fabricated image of Trump and Putin at an "Alaska summit" on Truth Social after Trump's call with European leaders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: This is a clear RF information operation attempting to sow discord within the Western alliance, project an image of Trump's alignment with Putin, and undermine the unity of support for Ukraine by creating a false narrative of a US-Russia rapprochement.
  • UAF Deep Strike (Luhansk Oil Depot): Video confirms a strong fire at an RF oil refinery in Luhansk, following an impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: This confirms a successful UAF deep strike against a critical RF logistical target in occupied territory, demonstrating continued UAF long-range strike capabilities and potentially impacting RF fuel supplies on the eastern front.
  • RF IO (Trump/Putin Photo - RBC-Ukraine): RBC-Ukraine reports Trump published a photo with Putin observing US fighter-bombers over Alaska. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: This is UAF IO amplifying the RF disinformation, possibly to warn of perceived threats or highlight inconsistencies in Western narratives.
  • RF IO (Alex Parker Returns - Internal Criticism): Alex Parker Returns' video regarding Leonid Volkov's departure from the Anti-Corruption Foundation Europe (FBK) and its American legal entities, with strong anti-semitic undertones, demonstrates RF's continued use of divisive and prejudiced narratives to discredit opposition figures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: This is a continuation of RF's aggressive, often hateful, IO tactics aimed at internal dissent and perceived foreign influence.
  • RF IO (Western Disunity - Bild): "Operation Z" (via Русской Весны) reports EU leaders don't expect US sanctions against Russia despite Trump's call with the "coalition of the willing," citing Bild. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: This is RF IO (amplified by RF milbloggers) to highlight perceived divisions within the Western alliance and undermine confidence in a unified front for Ukraine, specifically regarding economic pressure on Russia.
  • RF Counter-Artillery (Donbas): Colonelcassad reports the destruction of a German 155mm PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer in Donbas, claiming it was located and destroyed by drones, and that "nets didn't help." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgment: This indicates RF's continued effectiveness in counter-battery warfare using drone ISR and precision strikes, and a tactical success against a high-value Western-supplied artillery system. The comment about "nets not helping" suggests an adaptation to UAF anti-drone tactics.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Black Sea Oil Spill: Remains valid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Formaldehyde Levels (Kalush): Fire in Kalush from night attack now extinguished, suggests environmental hazard mitigated for now, but underlying risk remains. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
• Russian Temperature Forecast: Above-normal temperatures are expected across most of Russia this and next week. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Mine Collapse (Yakutia): One fatality from the Yakutia mine collapse. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Night Attack Aftermath (Odesa/Sloviansk/Kharkiv/Druzhkivka): Aftermath footage shows damaged buildings (warehouse, truck) in Odesa, photos of damage in Sloviansk and Kharkiv, and a Nova Poshta branch in Druzhkivka, likely from fire or explosion, confirming localized air quality degradation and structural damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kryvyi Rih Status: Situation reported as "controlled," suggesting no immediate environmental threat from military action. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Rostov Oblast (Krasny Sulin): Night vision footage indicates operations during low visibility conditions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Odesa: Explosions and smoke indicate localized air quality degradation. New Shahed threat from Black Sea, implying potential for further air quality degradation and structural damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Incendiary Use (LNR): Claims of UAF using incendiary mixtures to set fires in LNR, indicating potential for localized environmental impact and smoke plumes affecting visibility. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
• Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk): Smoke plume from an explosion/impact in a forested area, indicating localized environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Pokrovsk Direction: Explosions and smoke from burning structures (Mavic drone operator's shelter) confirm localized environmental degradation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: ZALA Lancet strike shows a significant explosion and smoke plume, indicating localized air quality degradation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Bryansk Border Region: Aerial strikes with explosions and smoke plumes, indicating localized environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk) "Liberation" (RF claims): Widespread damage, explosions, and smoke, indicating a high-intensity combat zone with significant environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Zaporizhzhia City: Significant damage to civilian buildings, with broken windows and debris, indicating localized structural damage and air quality degradation from explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kupyansk: Helicopter strike on a UAV command post shows an explosion and smoke plume, indicating localized air quality degradation and structural damage. Destruction of Lozovaya district substation in Kupyansk direction confirms infrastructure damage and associated environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka Direction: Artillery strikes, damaged buildings, and smoke plumes, indicating ongoing, high-intensity combat with localized environmental impact and structural damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Krasnodar Krai and Rostov Oblast: Distant explosions and fire with smoke, confirming localized environmental impact in RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Druzhkivka: Shelling caused 7 wounded, indicating localized structural damage and air quality degradation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kozacha Lopan: "Unknown device" explosion caused two killed and two wounded, confirming localized structural damage and potential environmental hazards from munitions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Vladivostok (Russky Island): Heavy fog affecting visibility, which could hinder transportation and air operations for EEF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Sumy: Without electricity due to a Russian army strike on critical infrastructure, confirming localized environmental impact (power outages) and potential for broader disruption of essential services. Another explosion in Sumy, indicating continued localized environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New high-speed target on Sumy, indicating continued threat of environmental impact from strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• FPV Drone Strike (Motorcyclist): Flash and smoke from a drone impact, indicating localized environmental impact from the explosion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Wooded Area Drone Strike (RF): Explosion and significant smoke, indicating localized environmental degradation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• PzH 2000 Destruction: Explosion and smoke, confirming localized environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Zaporizhzhia Damage Assessment: Debris, shattered windows, and damaged balconies, indicating significant localized structural damage and air quality degradation due to the drone attack. Municipal cleanup and repairs are underway. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Water Shortages in Occupied Donetsk: Civilians queuing for water and "water marauders" stealing, indicating severe disruption to essential services and potential public health concerns due to infrastructure damage or mismanagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Novoselovka (Dnipropetrovsk) "Liberation" (TASS video): Explosions and smoke plumes from impact sites in a rural landscape, indicative of active military engagements and localized environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF Strike on RF Tank/Artillery/Robotic Complex (Donetsk): Explosions and smoke from direct hits on targets in Donetsk Oblast, indicating localized environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Missile Strike on Civilian Settlement (Chernihiv): Large, rapidly expanding smoke plume from an explosion consistent with a missile strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Air/Drone Strike on UAF Buggy: Significant explosion and fire after an apparent drone strike, indicating localized environmental impact and potential for secondary explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Bombing of Hospital/Village (Kostiantynivka): Damage to a hospital and nearby village from aerial bombs, confirming localized structural damage and potential air quality issues from explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Selydove (Occupied): Flames and thick black smoke from a damaged apartment building indicate a significant fire, likely from a UAF strike on an RF ammo depot. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Damaged Bridge/Urban Strike (Zaporizhzhia Front): RF milblogger video shows a damaged bridge with structural compromise and an urban settlement with smoke plumes, indicating significant environmental and structural damage near Stepnohirsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Nikopol Region: Photo messages show damage to civilian structures from FPV drones and artillery, confirming localized environmental impact and structural damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Demining Technology (RF): The "Courier" robotic demining platform demonstrates RF's efforts to mitigate environmental hazards from mines, though its deployment also implies the ongoing presence of minefields. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Internal Incident (Military Serviceman's House Fire): The fire at a military serviceman's house (car set alight) indicates a localized fire incident with potential air quality degradation and property damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Chernihiv Casualties: The number of wounded from the Chernihiv missile strike increased to 5. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kharkiv Direction: Map with explosion icons near Luk'yantsi and Lyptsi indicates localized environmental impact from active combat operations. Drone footage showing damaged buildings and terrain in Kharkiv direction further confirms this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Sieversk Direction: Drone footage showing a building engulfed in an explosion, and thermal imaging indicating lingering heat, confirms localized environmental impact from UAF drone strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Krasnoarmeysk Direction (Donetsk Oblast): Video of a bridge being destroyed, likely through explosives, indicating significant localized environmental impact from the destruction and potentially from the subsequent lack of access for humanitarian aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kharkiv Oblast: Thermal imaging footage of a burning tank indicates localized environmental impact from the intense fire and potential for smoke plumes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Zaporizhzhia Front: Drone footage of a burning Leopard 2 tank indicates localized environmental impact from the intense fire and smoke plume. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Sieversk Direction: Drone footage of wooded areas with explosions indicates localized environmental impact from UAF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Luhansk Oil Depot Fire: A large fire at an oil depot in occupied Luhansk after explosions/impacts indicates significant localized air quality degradation and structural damage, with potential for secondary explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Murmansk Oil Spill: Introduction of "heightened readiness" in Murmansk due to an oil spill indicates localized environmental contamination and potential for broader impact on marine ecosystems, even if unrelated to combat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Air Attack Aftermath (Khotimlya, Kharkiv Oblast): RF attacked the village of Khotimlya in Starosaltiv community with a UAV around 21:30. The increasing number of casualties indicates localized environmental impact and human cost. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Missile Attack Aftermath (Lozovenka, Kharkiv Oblast): RF launched a missile strike on the village of Lozovenka in Iziumskyi district around 21:00. This indicates localized environmental impact and potential for structural damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• NEW: UAF Deep Strike (Luhansk Oil Depot): Video confirms a strong fire at an RF oil refinery in Luhansk, following an impact. This indicates significant localized air quality degradation and potential for long-term environmental damage from chemical spills or fire suppression efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF:

  • Air/Missile Assets: Actively employing long-range precision air-launched weapons (КАБ on Donetsk, Sumy, and now Kharkiv Oblast), attack UAVs (Lancet on UAF radar, FPV drones on checkpoint, FPV drone strike on vehicle near Sumy border, FPV drone strike on motorcyclist in Pokrovsk direction), tactical aviation (southeast and northeast directions), and conducting drone strikes (Kharkiv direction, Nikopol region, Kharkiv city, Odesa warehouse fire). Reports strikes on UAF UAV/artillery electronics in Khmelnytskyi. Claims of strikes on "Motor" aircraft repair plant in Lutsk and "Donmashstroy" in Kramatorsk. Artillery (Msta-S, BM-21 Grad MLRS) actively employed in Kharkiv direction. Claims of strike on UAF UAV operator location in Kupyansk-Uzlovoy. RF animated strike scheme details alleged widespread drone strikes across multiple regions. Claims of Kalibr/Geran strikes on "Spetsoboronmash" plant near Kyiv Oblast border. UAV group in Chernihiv region moving southwest. Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast (including Pokrovsky district, Belozerske/Dobropillya). UAV group from Kharkiv to Donetsk Oblast. UAV group from Donetsk to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAV group in Southern Sumy Oblast, moving west. RF UAVs on course for Poltava Oblast. Several groups of RF UAVs detected in northern Kharkiv Oblast (Chuhuiv Raion). Reports a power outage in Krasnodar Krai due to a UAV strike. Groups of RF UAVs inbound from the Black Sea towards Odesa/Fontanka (approx. 14 Shaheds) were successfully intercepted. RF claims five Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Rostov Oblast. "Rubikon" air defense combat groups operating various drones (Leleka-100, RQ-35 Heidrun, Vector, VT-260) over Ukrainian fields. New claim of a successful ЛМУР strike on a UAF UAV launch point for the 22nd Motorized Brigade. A new RF UAV group is currently active in northern Sumy Oblast, heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. Ballistic missile threat from the northeast. High-speed target detected on Sumy. UAF Air Force reports КАБ launches towards Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Colonelcassad reports a FAB-3000 strike on a UAF PVD (Forward Operating Base). "Operation Z" video highlights RF Electronic Warfare (EW) capabilities against UAF drones, likely to protect ground forces, specifically on the Zaporizhzhia front. RF Ministry of Defense claims 46 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions and the Black Sea. Rybar's "Eyes on Orbit" videos show at least two distinct multi-stage rocket/missile launches at night from coastal/urban areas. The additional four UAVs shot down over Volgograd Oblast demonstrate RF's active air defense capability against perceived UAF cross-border threats. Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) claims RF air defense shot down 46 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. Два майора posts a video (18+) with "18th Combined Arms Army" insignia, showing an aerial strike on a small boat with personnel in water. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a new group of enemy UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving southwest. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video claiming that drones attacked 17 Russian oil refineries in August. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posts a photo message stating "84 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed." ASTRA reports that Ukraine's Air Force states Russia attacked with 112 UAVs overnight, and UAF neutralized 84 of them. Шеф Hayabusa posts photos of damage in Sloviansk and Odesa after night attacks. RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia is preparing a new offensive against Ukraine, citing Bloomberg. UAF General Staff reports repelling 5 RF army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message about the "Konstantinovsky direction." Воин DV posts a video showing "harsh hits on enemy manpower trying to escape, but unsuccessfully," depicting drone footage of strikes on fortified positions and personnel. Kotsnews posts a video showcasing the "Ant" exoskeleton vest designed to reduce fatigue and enhance mobility for soldiers. Два майора posts a video urging "Let's activate! Over the past day, 669 people participated in the collection for assault troops of the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment." Два майора posts video of UAV operator training from the Konstantinovsky direction, specifically naming the 33rd Motorized Rifle Berlin-Don Cossack Regiment, 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division. MoD Russia releases video claiming a Fagot ATGM of the Zapad Group of Forces neutralized a Bradley IFV, a field ammunition depot, and AFU manpower. Mash на Донбассе posts a video claiming the Russian army began assaulting Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, showing UAV footage of strikes on a damaged building and surrounding area with military personnel. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF is again using incendiary mixtures to set fires in LNR. Colonelcassad posts a video showing the alleged capture of a Ukrainian DRG in Bryansk Oblast, whose task was railway sabotage. Воин DV posts a video claiming scouts from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade located a camouflaged enemy vehicle in the forests west of Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). Воин DV (RF milblogger, Vostok Group of Forces) claims the "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, supported by video showing artillery strikes, damage, RF flags, and soldiers. Два майора reports the "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by the "Vostok" Group of Forces, claiming it's the sixth in the region. ТАСС reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have "liberated" Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Сливочный каприз posts video from the Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka direction (04.09.25) showing artillery strikes, damaged buildings, and both Ukrainian and Russian flags in contested territory. ТАСС and Два майора report "complete liberation" of DNR territory and continued offensive into Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF forces took control of a 5-hectare forest area in LNR. WarGonzo posts video of "Group Nemets" (291st Regiment) conducting drone reconnaissance and artillery strikes on UAF positions in Zaporizhzhia. Военкор Котенок confirms RF MoD claims of advancing "deep into enemy defenses" and "liberating" Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Colonelcassad posts video claiming "Vostok" Group of Forces liberated Novoselovka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Операция Z (Русская Весна) posts photo message of Leonid Slutsky visiting Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. Рыбарь posts a tactical map titled "Liberation of Novoselovka," depicting claimed RF advances and control. RF MoD claims the "Vostok" Group of Forces made ground and took Novoselovka under control in Dnepropetrovsk region. RF Kotsnews reports the Russian army liberated Novoselovka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF Alex Parker Returns reports two Ukrainian DRGs are being sought in Kaluga Oblast (Zhigra, Lyudinovo, Kirov regions), allegedly comprising 5 personnel each (officer/sergeant from 3rd SOF Regiment), equipped with 10kg explosives, F-1 grenades, Garmin comms, AR-15 rifles with suppressors, PSS/MSP pistols. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts photo messages regarding the "Zaporizhzhia direction." БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video alleging a Russian occupier riding a motorcycle was targeted by a kamikaze drone. MoD Russia posts a photo message on the "progress of special military operation as of 4 September 2025." Два майора posts a series of photos, titled "Soldier's Daily Life," depicting a cat with camouflage gear and soldiers in a field environment. STERNENKO posts a video claiming another motorcyclist with a sidecar was destroyed by an FPV drone in the Pokrovsk direction. Colonelcassad posts a video claiming FPV drone crews of the RF 124th Separate Brigade of the RF Armed Forces consistently destroyed a Ukrainian DRG attempting to advance into the island zone of the Dnipro River. RF MOD - UKRAINIAN DRG DESTROYED (DNIPRO RIVER): TASS reports the RF Ministry of Defense states a Ukrainian DRG that attempted to land in the island zone of the Dnipro River was destroyed. RF - SUMY DIRECTION ADVANCE: Colonelcassad posts a video claiming "local advance in Yunakovka and front-line stability on the border" in the Sumy direction. RF - PZBH 2000 HOWITZER DESTROYED: "Воин DV" posts a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer. TASS - RF MOD CLAIMS DRG DESTRUCTION: TASS posts a video with the caption "Footage of the destruction of a Ukrainian DRG attempting to land in the island zone of the Dnipro." RF CONTROL OF DNIPRO DELTA ISLANDS (KHERSON): TASS reports that Saldo claims RF forces maintain control over islands in the Dnipro delta in Kherson Oblast. RF TACTICAL MAP - DONETSK/ZAPORIZHZHIA/DNIPROPETROVSK OFFENSIVE: Colonelcassad posts a tactical map claiming the front line after the "liberation" of the southwestern DNR, showing the offensive continuing into Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetropsk Oblasts. RF MILBLOGGER DRONE REQUEST: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video of an RF soldier requesting a Mavic 3 drone for reconnaissance and artillery spotting. UAF STRIKE ON RF TANK/ARTILLERY/ROBOTIC COMPLEX (DONETSK): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video claiming Phoenix unit operators of the State Border Guard Service (DPSU) destroyed an RF tank, artillery piece, and ground robotic complex in Donetsk Oblast. UAF FPV Drone Strike (Kherson): Шеф Hayabusa reports two RF occupiers were eliminated in the Kherson direction by an FPV drone strike. RF Air/Drone Strike on UAF Buggy (Vostok Group): Voin DV posts video claiming operators of the 69th Cover Brigade of the "Vostok" Group of Forces struck an enemy buggy. RF Bombing of Hospital/Village (Kostiantynivka): RBC-Ukraine reports RF dropped aerial bombs on a hospital in Kostiantynivka and a nearby village. RF MoD claims snipers of the 2nd Combined Arms Army (Tsentr Group of Forces) eliminated over 100 heavy strike drones of the AFU (referring to "Baba-Yaga" drones) in Krasnoarmeysk direction. RF Military Transportation Document Extension: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF MoD plans to increase the validity of military transportation documents from three to six months. UAF claims to have struck an RF ammunition depot in occupied Selydove. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF milblogger "Два майора" posts a map of the Zaporizhzhia front near Stepnohirsk. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO reports increased RF use of heavy equipment and small infantry groups for assaults on the Zaporizhzhia direction, supported by drone footage of strikes on RF positions and vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Finnish (Janus Putkonen) and Ukrainian sources (citing "Ukrainian propagandists") claim Russia has conducted its largest regrouping since 2022 and is ready for a decisive battle for Donbas, publishing intelligence maps. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad posts video of 155th Marine Brigade cadets undergoing an obstacle course, demonstrating physical fitness and teamwork, likely for morale/recruitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF fought Colombian mercenaries for two days, possibly as part of an IO effort to denigrate UAF and its foreign support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) MoD Russia reports servicemembers of the 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade (Vostok Group of Forces) are in Novoselovka, Dnipropetrovsk region, confirming RF ground presence and claimed control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports "active battles" in the Pokrovsko-Dobropolsk direction, indicating continued RF ground pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad posts a video showcasing the "Courier" robotic platform equipped with a laser system for demining (Ignis laser demining system), demonstrating remote detonation of TM-62 and PTM-3/PMN mines at 150m. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports the Lozovaya district substation on the Kupyansk direction was destroyed by RF forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Fighterbomber posts a video displaying ZSU-23-4 Shilka self-propelled anti-aircraft weapon systems in a parade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) MoD Russia releases video claiming "AFU UAV long-range deploying area being eliminated in Chernigov region," showing a strike on vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF observation and evacuation points were destroyed in the Druzhkovsky direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Fighterbomber posts two identical video messages celebrating the 85th anniversary of the Kazan Helicopter Plant, showcasing helicopter production and various models (including rescue/transport/medical). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts two photo messages and two video messages with the caption "Kharkiv direction," one showing a map with explosion icons near Luk'yantsi and Lyptsi, and the videos showing drone footage of successful strikes against UAF mortar positions, military vehicles (truck, tractor), damaged buildings, and a downed 'Baba-Yaga' drone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) MoD Russia posts two identical video messages titled "Russian drone pilots lose no time," showcasing FPV drone footage identifying and targeting armored vehicles (BTRs), communication systems (antennas), and other infrastructure, with explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad posts two identical video messages with the caption "Footage of the destruction of a long-range AFU UAV preparation and launch point in Chernihiv Oblast," showing an aerial strike on multiple white vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports RF MOD claims shooting down two Ukrainian drones over Rostov and Belgorod Oblasts, and two over the Black Sea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) WarGonzo posts a text message: "Exclusive. The DPR team is leading the score: 'Somali,' 'Piatnashka,' and legendary militiamen," promoting success for proxy forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Ground Operations (Zaporizhzhia Direction): Воин DV posts video claiming RF forces discovered and destroyed a German Leopard 2 tank on the Zaporizhzhia front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Air Activity/Alerts: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports: missile threat in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Poltava Oblasts (HIGH CONFIDENCE); ballistic missile threat from Kursk (HIGH CONFIDENCE); high-speed target on Myrhorod (HIGH CONFIDENCE); high-speed target on Sumy (HIGH CONFIDENCE); UAV from Kharkiv Oblast on course for Poltava Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE); high-speed target in Poltava Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE); UAV threat in Iziumskyi district (Kharkiv Oblast) and Donetsk Oblast (HIGH CONFIDENCE); another high-speed target on Sumy (HIGH CONFIDENCE). TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at Volgograd airport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Defense Industry/Infrastructure: Fighterbomber posts video of a new mechanization and processing plant at Kazan Helicopter Plant. Kadyrov_95 posts video of construction of a large Islamic center and high-rise buildings in Grozny. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Ground Operations (Konstantinovka): Сливочный каприз posts a photo and video from Konstantinovka (04.09.25), showing a tank being hit and burning. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Geopolitical Narratives): Операция Z (via Русской Весны) posts an image implying a possible alliance between USA, Russia, China, and India, attributed to a "Kremlin special representative." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Daily Summary: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a "Summary for the day September 4." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Counter-Espionage (Belarus): TASS and Два майора report that Belarusian authorities detained a Polish spy collecting information on the upcoming "Zapad-2025" Belarusian-Russian exercises. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Ground Operations (Konstantinovka Direction): Colonelcassad posts video on "Konstantinovka direction: pressure on Kleban-Byk, struggle for Alexandro-Shultino, and strikes on Predtechino," showing drone footage of a damaged/burning military vehicle. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Geran Drone Narrative): Alex Parker Returns posts a video with derogatory language and the caption "Nothing unusual, just an orchestra playing the sound of a Geranium." The video shows an orchestra and a cat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (SMO Impact): Два майора posts "The SMO changed a lot." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Internal Incident (IT Businessman Case): TASS reports a criminal case against IT businessman and billionaire Sergei Matsotsky for bribery has been closed due to lack of involvement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Air Activity/Alerts (Sumy): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a new high-speed target on Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Anti-Artillery (Kherson): Colonelcassad posts video claiming RF FPV drones destroyed a Ukrainian "Bohdana" 155mm wheeled self-propelled howitzer in the Kherson direction. The video description implies the drone footage is from an FPV drone, targeting an armored vehicle. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Counter-Intelligence (Belarus): Операция Z (via Русской Весны) further amplifies the report of Belarusian authorities detaining a Polish spy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Geopolitical/US Withdrawal): Janus Putkonen (RF-aligned source) promotes a narrative of "USA's withdrawal from Russia's borders" as part of an "Alaska 2025 agreement." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (New UAF Drone Threat): Два майора warns RF soldiers to "beware of a new enemy drone! It strikes deep in the rear!" and posts a video showing a Ukrainian drone (with clear UAF markings) striking a roadside structure (likely a bus stop or kiosk) and damaging a dashcam. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Air Activity (Chernihiv): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a UAV in Chernihiv Oblast, moving southwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Sports/Normalcy): TASS reports Russia's national football team drew 0-0 with Jordan in a friendly match. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Airspace Restrictions (Penza Oblast): Temporary flight restrictions in Penza Oblast by Ministry of Emergency Situations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Air Threat (Kharkiv Oblast): RF attacked the village of Khotimlya in Starosaltiv community with a UAV around 21:30. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Missile Strike (Kharkiv Oblast): RF launched a missile strike on the village of Lozovenka in Iziumskyi district around 21:00. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Air Threat/Drone Warfare (Sumy Direction): Colonelcassad posts video of a "battle of drones" in the Sumy direction, claiming UAF UAVs are caught in the nets of the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade (83 OGDSHBr) "Gulbasa Group." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Ground Operations (Pokrovsk Direction): "Operation Z" (via Русской Весны) posts video claiming "fierce battles near Pokrovsk: 'Brave' mass-burn enemy equipment and infantry." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Drone Funding/Innovation: "Два майора" posts a video promoting fundraising for "fiber optics" for drones, showcasing a 3D-printed payload delivery system capable of distances of 15-25 km. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Ground Operations (Pokrovsk-Dobropillya Direction): Colonelcassad posts a map image with the caption "Pokrovsk-Dobropillya direction – active battles." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF Drone Threat (Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts): A UAV is reported on the border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with a northwest course. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF Air Defense (Volgograd): Restrictions on aircraft reception and release at Volgograd airport have been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF Drone Threat (Northern Ukraine): Shaheds are reportedly attacking Ukraine from the north. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF IO (Trump/Putin Photo): Janus Putkonen (RF-aligned source) posted a fabricated image of Trump and Putin at an "Alaska summit." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF IO (Alex Parker Returns - Internal Criticism): Alex Parker Returns' video regarding Leonid Volkov's departure from FBK, with anti-semitic undertones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF IO (Western Disunity - Bild): "Operation Z" reports EU leaders don't expect US sanctions against Russia, citing Bild. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF Counter-Artillery (Donbas): Colonelcassad reports the destruction of a German 155mm PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer in Donbas by drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• UAF:

  • Air Defense: Operating under intense pressure, successfully intercepting a high volume of drones and missiles, but with confirmed fatalities and infrastructure damage. Has secured additional air defense systems from Nordic/Baltic partners. Confirmed a Molniya UAV hit a university in Kharkiv. UAF successfully downed a "Gerbera" reconnaissance drone. Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast. UAF claims significant destruction of RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. All incoming Shahed UAVs towards Odesa/Fontanka were successfully intercepted. UAF Air Force reports a high-speed target on Sumy. Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration reports two UAVs were shot down over the oblast. STERNENKO provides photos of a fire in an Odesa warehouse due to a drone attack, with DSNS reporting no casualties. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video showing damage to a warehouse and a cargo truck in Odesa due to an RF attack. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posts a photo message stating "84 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed." ASTRA reports that Ukraine's Air Force states Russia attacked with 112 UAVs overnight, and UAF neutralized 84 of them. Шеф Hayabusa posts photos of damage in Sloviansk and Odesa after night attacks. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for Chernihiv Oblast (Nizhyn district) regarding enemy strike UAVs. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for Chernihiv Oblast regarding enemy strike UAVs. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorod district) regarding enemy strike UAVs. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the destruction of an S-300V SAM system in the Zaporizhzhia direction by the "Lazar" Separate Special Purpose Regiment of the 27th Pecheneg National Guard Brigade. ASTRA reports one person killed, six injured after Russian strikes on Kharkiv Oblast, citing police. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV in the Black Sea waters near Odesa Oblast and advises seeking shelter if an alarm is announced. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for "Threat of ballistic weaponry from the south." 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues an "ATTENTION" alert for missile threat. Николаевский Ванёк reports "ballistics on Tuzly/Mykolaivka !!!" and "working with adjustment near Tuzly." STERNENKO reports "Ballistic threat from the south!" Николаевский Ванёк reports a repeat ballistic missile launch targeting Tuzly. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for Chernihiv Oblast regarding enemy strike UAVs. Николаевский Ванёк reports that the ballistic missile threat to Tuzly has been neutralized ("minus"). Оперативний ЗСУ (Militarny) reports UAF likely struck two RF radar complexes, RLC-1 "Navigation South," in Rostov region overnight. ASTRA reports three people were wounded in Zaporizhzhia city after a Russian drone attack. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for Sumy Oblast regarding enemy strike UAVs. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports three people wounded in Zaporizhzhia from an attack. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports one person wounded after an enemy attack on a utility company vehicle in Orikhiv. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports air raid alert lifted. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 and РБК-Україна report that the number of wounded in Zaporizhzhia city has increased to four following an enemy attack. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports one 53-year-old woman was wounded in Zaporizhzhia Raion following an enemy attack. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UAF source) provides an update on satellite images regarding strikes in Crimea, confirming likely hit on six hovercraft ("Flamingo" cruise missiles), visual confirmation for four, and one serviceman killed. ASTRA CONFIRMS UAF STRIKES ON CRIMEA BASE: ASTRA posts new satellite images confirming its information about the damage to boats and barracks at a Russian border base in annexed Crimea after a UAF attack. UAF Air Force reports threat of enemy strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast (Novgorod-Siversky district) and Sumy Oblast (Shostkinsky and Konotopsky districts). UAF Odesa Warehouse Damage (Photo): STERNENKO posts photo messages showing fragments of a downed Shahed drone that caused a fire in an Odesa warehouse. UAF Heavy Copters "Vampire" in Action (82nd Airmobile Brigade): BUTUSOV PLUS posts video about Ukrainian heavy copter pilots of the "Vampire" unit (82nd Airmobile Brigade) conducting night bombing missions. RF Bombing of Hospital/Village (Kostiantynivka): RBC-Ukraine reports RF dropped aerial bombs on a hospital in Kostiantynivka and a nearby village. UAF Air Force reports threat of enemy strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast (Priluksky district) and Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorodsky district). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF Air Force reports threats of RF strike UAVs in Poltava Oblast (Lubny district) and aviation weapon use in Dnipropetrovsk (Synelnykivskyi district) and Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues a new missile alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF Air Force reports new strike UAVs from the Black Sea on course for Odesa Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports new Shahed threats to Odesa Oblast in broad daylight, indicating the persistent nature of the threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO claims "WU Samurai" shot down 2 "Gerbera" (reconnaissance drones) and 1 "Lancet" (loitering munition), demonstrating continued UAF counter-UAS effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Air raid alert lifted for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Another explosion in Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The number of wounded from the missile strike on the outskirts of Chernihiv has increased to 5. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast (Shostkinsky and Konotopsky districts) and Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast (Romensky district) and Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkiv district). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Syrsky is creating an echeloned system to counter enemy "Shaheds." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ground Forces: Maintaining defensive posture under intense pressure in Sieversk and Kupyansk. Denying significant RF breakthroughs despite intense pressure. UAF denies RF control of Kupyansk city center, confirming only infiltration attempts that are being countered. Oleg Synegubov's working trip highlights the severity and focus on this direction. UAF is rapidly restoring power in Lozovsky district after RF shelling, demonstrating quick response capabilities. UAF's "Apachi" unit is actively destroying attacking enemy forces in the Sieversk direction, demonstrating continued effective defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Southern/Eastern Fronts: Maintaining defensive operations, conducting localized strikes against RF assets, and adapting to RF tactics (e.g., anti-thermal cloaks). Active engagement of Russian BMPs in Zaporizhzhia by the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade. Minister of Defense working on the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating high-level attention to this new threat axis. Increased FPV drone strikes against RF in Zaporizhzhia. Dnipropetrovsk ODA reports sustained FPV drone and artillery attacks in Nikopol region, indicating active UAF defense. UAF Command Staff in Zaporizhzhia Oblast holding meeting, indicating high-level coordination. "Phoenix" unit successfully destroying RF tank, artillery, and robotic complex demonstrates continued offensive capability. "Active battles" reported in Pokrovsko-Dobropolsk direction indicate UAF forces are engaged and holding.
  • Tactical Innovation: Successful deployment of "NC13" ground robotic complexes by the 3rd Assault Brigade for combat, evacuation, and logistics, indicating a proactive approach to modern warfare. Development and use of heavy copters "Vampire" by the 82nd Airmobile Brigade for night bombing missions. UAF is actively developing and demonstrating FPV drones resistant to RF Electronic Warfare (EW), potentially carrying significant munitions, as seen on the Zaporizhzhia front. DeepState reports 210th Separate Assault Regiment (OSHP) received FPV drones on fiber optics.
  • Domestic Defense Industry: Continued production of artillery and drones. Announcement by "Fire Point" of FP-7 and FP-9 ballistic missile and air defense system development is a significant step towards long-range strike and enhanced IAMD capabilities.
  • Special Forces: Actively conducting "rusorez" operations in Sumy Oblast and successful counter-UAV operations in Pokrovsk direction. UAF General Staff photos show riverine training, indicating readiness for special operations.
  • Logistics: Major port investment project signals long-term economic and logistical planning and resilience. Mykolaiv receiving fresh water after 2022 is a significant infrastructure victory.
  • Morale/Training: UAF General Staff actively engaging in morale-boosting IO, including sharing videos of adaptation courses for Air Assault Forces. Soldiers training to counter drones. High-level leadership directly engaging with frontline units (Synegubov in Kupyansk, Minister of Defense in Zaporizhzhia). Strong public support for crowdfunding. POW family meetings indicate commitment to personnel welfare. The capture of 9 RF soldiers by 4 UAF soldiers on their first mission is a significant morale booster. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Counter-Intelligence: SBU and National Police continue to successfully detain RF agents involved in sabotage and espionage, including a significant recent success in Kyiv, Lviv, and Volyn Oblasts (5 agents, 3 under 18). Detention of 5 additional agents for arson and sabotage. Prosecutor General's Office actively combating illicit trade supporting RF.
  • Desertion Policy: Verkhovna Rada reinstating criminal liability for unauthorized absence (СЗЧ), but also simplifying the return to service, indicating efforts to manage manpower and discipline while encouraging reintegration.
  • New UAF Capabilities: UAF Phoenix unit (DPSU) successfully destroyed an RF tank, artillery, and a ground robotic complex in Donetsk Oblast. UAF aviation is conducting strikes against RF positions, demonstrating continued air support capabilities.
  • Law Enforcement: Ukrainian police conducting routine traffic stops, indicating functioning civilian governance in non-combat areas. However, reports of gunfire on a TCC group near Lutsk suggest localized internal security challenges or resistance to mobilization efforts.
  • Air Defense/Ballistic Missile Response: UAF Air Force, KMVA, and regional administrations are issuing immediate alerts and responding to ballistic missile threats in Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, and Sumy.
  • Resilience of Education: Children attending school in underground classrooms in Kharkiv demonstrates remarkable resilience and commitment to education despite ongoing conflict.
  • Internal Anti-Corruption Efforts: Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor's Office uncovering new abuses highlights ongoing efforts to combat corruption at regional levels. The VAKS decision regarding Tetiana Krupa is another example of ongoing anti-corruption efforts. An interim measure for SBU General Vityuk indicates continued focus on accountability.
  • Civilian Support Infrastructure: KMVA highlighting efforts to make assistance "maximally accessible and understandable" (e.g., "Ye Opora" app) shows ongoing adaptation for civilian support under wartime conditions.
  • Zelenskyy Diplomacy: President Zelenskyy's active participation in the "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting with over 30 countries demonstrates sustained diplomatic efforts to secure long-term security guarantees and immediate military support. He emphasizes that security guarantees must be legislated at a parliamentary level, indicating a focus on formalizing commitments. Zelenskyy's statements about Trump calling on Hungary and Slovakia to stop buying Russian oil demonstrate UAF's continued efforts to influence and leverage international partners.
  • General Staff Updates: UAF General Staff provides regular operational updates, reinforcing transparency and command visibility.
  • Demining Efforts: Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov reports successful demining of almost 212 hectares in a week, indicating ongoing efforts to restore land and protect civilians.
  • Veteran Policy (Kyiv): KMVA reports a meeting discussing the "Strategy for Veteran Policy until 2030" and its implementation in Kyiv, indicating forward-looking planning for veteran integration and welfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • POW Issues: Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War meeting with US Embassy representatives indicates ongoing diplomatic efforts regarding POWs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • War Crime Documentation: Prosecutor General's Office actively documenting and investigating RF war crimes, as seen in the Kherson torture and robbery report, contributing to legal accountability efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kryvyi Rih Stability: Олександр Вілкул providing a briefing reinforces local command oversight and stability in Kryvyi Rih. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Mobilization Transparency: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 showcasing TCC groups with body cameras for public notification indicates UAF's efforts to increase transparency in mobilization efforts and counter negative narratives. "Резерв+" expanded functions for online fine payment is an administrative success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • International Support Diplomacy: Zelenskyy's press conference with Macron, highlighting allied military presence and EU membership as security guarantees, demonstrates proactive diplomacy to secure long-term defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Legal Oversight: The report on the SBU General Vityuk choosing an interim measure reflects UAF's commitment to internal legal processes and accountability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Human Rights Concerns (Internal): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts about a four-year prison sentence for "peaceful preaching," which if pertaining to Ukraine, could indicate internal human rights concerns or misuse of legal processes, potentially impacting public sentiment and requiring internal review. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Daily Information Summary: РБК-Україна providing a daily summary shows UAF's efforts to keep the public informed and focused. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF IO (Western Support Narrative): Оперативний ЗСУ and ASTRA amplify a Financial Times report that the U.S. will cut defense aid for European countries bordering Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF IO (Humanitarian Tragedy): РБК-Україна reports an update on the funicular catastrophe in Lisbon, stating a Ukrainian citizen died. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Casualties (Khotimlya, Kharkiv Oblast): The number of casualties from the RF drone attack on Khotimlya is increasing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Casualties/Losses: Colonelcassad and DeepState report the death of Captain Artem Sviridov, commander of the 2nd Assault Company, 1st Assault Battalion, 210th OSHP, in the Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Diplomacy: РБК-Україна reports on Fico (Slovakia) plans for a meeting with Zelenskyy in Uzhhorod. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • International Condemnation (Chernihiv Strike): ASTRA reports Denmark's Foreign Ministry condemned the RF strike on the humanitarian mission near Chernihiv, stating it's "another proof that Putin does not intend to end his illegal aggressive war." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Air Defense (Zaporizhzhia): The air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Ground Operations (Sieversk Direction): STERNENKO posts video claiming the "Apachi" unit is striking targets around the clock. The video shows drone footage of wooded areas with explosions on small structures/positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Ground Operations (Donbas): Оперативний ЗСУ posts video with the caption "'Mom, Dad, I'm in Donbas!'" showing Ukrainian soldiers clearing a wooded area and engaging enemy positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • German Military Aid to Ukraine (NEW): РБК-Україна reports Germany plans to provide equipment for four Ukrainian brigades. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF General Staff Update: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts operational information as of 22:00 04.09.2025 regarding the Russian invasion, with an image of a soldier in a wooded area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Counter-Offensive/Deep Strike (Luhansk): STERNENKO, RBC-Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, and ASTRA confirm a successful UAF strike on an oil depot in occupied Luhansk, causing a large fire. This demonstrates UAF's capability for deep strikes against RF logistical targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF POW Incident (Klishchiivka): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian mortar crew from 93rd Brigade was captured by RF forces on Klishchiivka direction after resisting an assault. This highlights the difficult and dangerous conditions faced by UAF forces and the potential for personnel losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • International Support (Troop Contribution): RBC-Ukraine (citing Radio Svoboda) reports ten countries are ready to send up to 30,000 soldiers to Ukraine. This indicates a significant potential for increased foreign military support for UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UN Reaction (Chernihiv Strike): RBC-Ukraine reports the UN is "shocked" by the Russian strike on a humanitarian mission near Chernihiv. This indicates strong international condemnation of RF actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Air Defense Strategy: UAF is establishing an echeloned "anti-Shahed" system, as confirmed by Syrsky during a General Staff meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Online Drone Operations Board: A verified, real-time public online scoreboard showing the results of each SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) unit and the overall unmanned systems grouping is now publicly available. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: UAF IO (School Event): A video from Cherkasy school showing students singing an anti-occupier song with profanity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: UAF Deep Strike (Luhansk Oil Depot): Video confirms a strong fire at an RF oil refinery in Luhansk, following an impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF IO (Trump/Putin Photo - RBC-Ukraine): RBC-Ukraine reports Trump published a photo with Putin observing US fighter-bombers over Alaska. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.3.1. Control Measures:

• RF Airspace Restrictions (Penza Oblast): Temporary airspace restrictions have been imposed in Penza Oblast. This is a control measure implemented by RF authorities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Belgorod Information Control: The operational headquarters of Belgorod Oblast has prohibited publishing unofficial information about military operations and their deployment locations, a measure to control information flow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• NEW: RF Air Defense (Volgograd): Restrictions on aircraft reception and release at Volgograd airport have been lifted. This indicates the temporary suspension of an RF control measure, likely due to a reduction in perceived threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:

  • Sustained and Adaptive Multi-Domain Strikes: RF continues persistent missile and drone strikes targeting Ukraine's defense industry, fuel infrastructure, and railway infrastructure. Civilian casualties remain a consequence of these strikes, with new confirmed casualties in Zaporizhzhia (4 wounded), Orikhiv (2 wounded), and Druzhkivka (7 wounded), as well as two killed and two wounded in Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast. RF demonstrates the ability to adapt its targeting (e.g., UAF UAV operator locations, UAV launch points, educational institutions, humanitarian demining missions, and now potentially TCC groups). The volume of drone attacks remains high (112 UAVs overnight), demonstrating capacity for large-scale, coordinated air strikes against urban infrastructure, despite UAF interceptions. RF maintains robust air defense capabilities (claiming 46 UAF UAVs shot down, as well as new "small air defense" capabilities, and showcased Shilka AA systems in IO). RF continues to test missile/rocket launch capabilities and employs heavy unguided munitions like FAB-3000. RF also uses advanced EW capabilities to counter UAF drones. RF is capable of striking deep into Ukrainian territory, as evidenced by drone attacks on RF oil refineries in August. Rybar's "Eyes on Orbit" videos could be intended to demonstrate RF's continued military prowess and a deterrent capability. Два майора's video showing an aerial strike on a small boat indicates RF's capability for targeted strikes on watercraft and personnel in riverine/coastal environments. MoD Russia's claim of neutralizing a Bradley IFV indicates RF's continued ATGM effectiveness against armored vehicles and ground targets. MoD Russia's claimed strike on UAF UAV command post and strongholds in Krasnoarmeysk direction indicates an intent to directly degrade UAF C2 and fortified positions. The КАБ launches on Kharkiv Oblast indicate an intent to expand the deep strike campaign to further degrade UAF's ability to defend its northern territories and support ongoing ground operations. Народная милиция ДНР's claimed destruction of AFU positions, PVD, and antenna by 68th orb indicates RF's persistent capability for reconnaissance and targeted strikes against UAF forward positions and communication infrastructure. Два майора's video claiming a Lancet strike on UAF artillery in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, followed by an aerial strike, clearly demonstrates RF's continued capability for precision loitering munition attacks against UAF artillery assets, using real-time ISR. Colonelcassad's video from Bryansk border region, showing drone reconnaissance of a communication tower (identifying communication system, transformer), a mortar position, and vehicles, followed by aerial strikes, illustrates RF's layered ISR and strike capability, including against potential cross-border incursions or support infrastructure. Colonelcassad's video claiming Russian helicopter crews struck a UAV command post on the Kupyansk tactical direction. This demonstrates RF's capability to deploy rotary-wing assets for targeted strikes against UAF UAV C2, even in contested urban areas. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video from Krasnodar Krai and Rostov Oblast, suggesting UAF strikes, which RF will intend to deter or respond to. Kotsnews videos demonstrate RF's sustained artillery capabilities, showing self-propelled howitzers firing and impacts on UAF positions/infrastructure. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video from a Russian military vehicle's dashcam showing a Ukrainian "Bulava" drone hitting the car. This further confirms UAF's capability for targeted drone strikes on RF ground vehicles. TASS video reports "Rubikon" operators struck 6 AFU armored vehicles and 3 Starlink stations. RBC-Ukraine reports that Sumy and its district are without electricity due to a Russian army strike on critical infrastructure. RF MOD - UKRAINIAN DRG DESTROYED (DNIPRO RIVER): TASS reports the RF Ministry of Defense states a Ukrainian DRG that attempted to land in the island zone of the Dnipro River was destroyed. RF DRONE STRIKE (WOODED AREA): "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts a video with the caption "Target destroyed, no survivors." RF - PZBH 2000 HOWITZER DESTROYED: "Воин DV" posts a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer. TASS - RF MOD CLAIMS DRG DESTRUCTION: TASS posts a video with the caption "Footage of the destruction of a Ukrainian DRG attempting to land in the island zone of the Dnipro." RF ANIMATED STRIKE SCHEME: Colonelcassad posts an animated scheme of RF strikes on Ukrainian territory from 03-04 SEP 25, detailing widespread drone and UMPK glide bomb strikes across multiple oblasts. RF IO - YOUTH SABOTAGE NARRATIVE: RF milblogger "Операция Z" (via Русской Весны) posts a narrative claiming children are used for sabotage by Ukraine. This indicates an intent to discredit Ukraine, potentially dehumanize its resistance, and sow internal distrust within Ukraine or among international supporters. RF CONTROL OF DNIPRO DELTA ISLANDS (KHERSON): TASS reports Saldo's claim of RF maintaining control over Dnipro delta islands in Kherson Oblast. This indicates RF's intent to secure strategic riverine territories and reinforce its defensive posture in the Kherson direction, denying UAF riverine operations. RF IO - DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN ENERGY/ODESA BLOCKADE: Colonelcassad posts a video by Rojin on "Destruction of Ukrainian energy, robodogs and naval blockade of Odesa." This indicates RF's intent to project its capabilities and strategic goals of crippling Ukrainian energy infrastructure and naval access. RF Ballistic Missile Strike on Humanitarian Mission (Chernihiv): The confirmed ballistic missile strike on humanitarian demining personnel in Chernihiv, while possibly a targeting error, demonstrates an intent to strike in the area, and even if unintentional, it serves to increase pressure and fear, and disrupt humanitarian efforts. RF Air/Drone Strike on UAF Buggy: Voin DV posts video claiming operators of the 69th Cover Brigade of the "Vostok" Group of Forces struck an enemy buggy. RF Bombing of Hospital/Village (Kostiantynivka): RBC-Ukraine reports RF dropped aerial bombs on a hospital in Kostiantynivka and a nearby village. RF's airspace violations over Poland, if intentional, indicate a reach and potential disregard for sovereign borders that could escalate regional tensions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The confirmed strike on a hospital in Kostiantynivka demonstrates RF's continued capability and willingness to use aerial bombs indiscriminately against civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The Vostok Group of Forces is receiving DJI Mavic 3 drones, demonstrating RF's continued capability to procure and deploy COTS UAVs for combat support and reconnaissance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The new UAF Air Force report of a strike UAV threat in Poltava Oblast and aviation weapon use in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia indicates RF's continued capability to project drone and aviation threats across various regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF MoD claims destruction of a UAF long-range UAV preparation and launch point in Chernihiv Oblast with an Iskander OTRK. This indicates RF's capability for precision strikes using OTRKs and their intent to target UAF drone infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Dnipropetrovsk ODA reports Nikopol region suffered from RF FPV drones and artillery throughout the day, indicating RF's capability for sustained close-range drone and artillery fire against civilian settlements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a video claiming a ZALA Lancet identified camouflaged UAF artillery in Dnipropetropvska Oblast, followed by a strike, demonstrating RF's continued ISR-strike chain capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports the Lozovaya district substation on the Kupyansk direction was destroyed by RF forces, demonstrating capability to target UAF energy infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The MoD Russia video claiming the elimination of a UAF UAV deploying area in Chernihiv region, showing a strike on vehicles, highlights RF's capability to conduct precision strikes using aerial assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Fighterbomber's video celebrating the Kazan Helicopter Plant projects RF's industrial and technological capacity for helicopter production, which supports military operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's videos from the Kharkiv direction, showing drone footage of destroyed UAF mortar positions, vehicles, and a downed 'Baba-Yaga' drone, demonstrate RF's continued capability for aerial reconnaissance and precision strikes against UAF ground assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) MoD Russia's video "Russian drone pilots lose no time" showcases FPV drone capabilities for ISR, target acquisition (armored vehicles, comms systems), and strike coordination, indicating sustained and advanced drone warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reports RF MOD claims shooting down four Ukrainian drones (two over Rostov, Belgorod, two over Black Sea), demonstrating RF's active air defense capabilities against cross-border UAV threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's video claiming the destruction of a bridge in Krasnoarmeysk direction demonstrates RF's capability to conduct targeted infrastructure sabotage to disrupt UAF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Ground Operations (Zaporizhzhia Direction): Воин DV posts video claiming RF forces discovered and destroyed a German Leopard 2 tank on the Zaporizhzhia front. This demonstrates RF's ongoing capability to conduct effective anti-armor operations and leverage drone ISR for targeting high-value Western-supplied equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Air Activity/Alerts: The numerous alerts for missile and UAV threats in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Poltava, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts indicate RF's continued and widespread capability for aerial reconnaissance and strike missions across eastern and central Ukraine. The temporary flight restrictions at Volgograd airport suggest RF's capability to implement rapid air defense measures or internal security responses to perceived threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Defense Industry/Infrastructure: Fighterbomber's video of a new mechanization and processing plant at Kazan Helicopter Plant demonstrates RF's continued investment in and capability for domestic military-industrial production, specifically in rotary-wing aircraft. Kadyrov_95's video of large-scale construction in Grozny projects RF's capability for significant infrastructure development, which can have dual-use benefits for military logistics and internal control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Ground Operations (Konstantinovka): Сливочный каприз's photo and video from Konstantinovka, showing a tank being hit and burning, confirms RF's capability to detect and destroy UAF armored vehicles, likely through drone-guided strikes, in contested areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Counter-Espionage (Belarus): TASS and Два майора report the detention of a Polish spy in Belarus. This indicates RF/Belarusian capability for effective counter-intelligence operations against perceived Western espionage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Ground Operations (Konstantinovka Direction): Colonelcassad's video on the Konstantinovka direction, showing drone footage of a damaged/burning military vehicle, confirms RF's capability to apply sustained pressure and achieve tactical successes against UAF vehicles in this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Anti-Artillery (Kherson): Colonelcassad posts video claiming RF FPV drones destroyed a Ukrainian "Bohdana" 155mm wheeled self-propelled howitzer in the Kherson direction. This demonstrates RF's capability for targeted and effective anti-artillery operations using drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Concentrated Ground Offensive with Adaptive & Hybrid Tactics: RF can concentrate forces for localized gains and maintain intense pressure in urban environments (Kupyansk). DeepState confirms RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk. RF continues localized offensive actions on multiple axes (Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Yanvarske, Chervonaya Dibrova, Grigorievka, Pokrovsk). The adoption of anti-thermal imaging cloaks demonstrates an intent to circumvent UAF drone/thermal surveillance advantages. RF is preparing for a "final, decisive battle" for the rest of Donetsk Oblast, confirmed by Ukrainian and Finnish sources. RF milbloggers confirm active combat in the Pokrovsk direction and increased use of heavy equipment and small infantry groups for assaults on the Zaporizhzhia direction. RF also shows interest and potential in soldier enhancement technologies (Ant exoskeleton). RF is capable of promoting senior military officials to higher ranks, as seen with Magomed Daudov. "Operation Z" video of an FPV drone strike near Sumy border confirms active RF ground operations and drone use in the Sumy border region. Colonelcassad drone footage of high-precision strikes on UAF trench positions demonstrates RF's capability to systematically degrade UAF defenses to enable ground advances. Rybar's map-based analysis of the Shcherbinovka operations clearly indicates RF's capability to achieve tactical encirclement and territorial gains. Mash на Донбассе's video claiming the Russian army began assaulting Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicates RF's capability to launch ground assaults into new areas, supported by aerial assets. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF is using incendiary mixtures to set fires in LNR, implying RF's capability to detect and report such UAF tactics. Colonelcassad's video of alleged DRG capture in Bryansk Oblast demonstrates RF's counter-insurgency/counter-sabotage capabilities and border security. Воин DV posts a video claiming scouts located an enemy vehicle near Novoselivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, reflects RF's capability to conduct thorough reconnaissance ahead of or during offensive operations in that area. Воин DV (RF milblogger, Vostok Group of Forces) claims the "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, supported by video showing artillery strikes, damage, RF flags, and soldiers. This confirms RF's capability for significant territorial gains and offensive operations into new oblasts, potentially supported by heavy firepower. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's video, even from a UAF perspective, highlights RF's capability to employ anti-thermal cloaks for infiltration attempts, indicating an adaptive tactical approach. Два майора reports the "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by the "Vostok" Group of Forces, including unit identification (36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 29th Army). This indicates a specific RF unit with the capability to execute offensive ground operations, leading to claimed territorial gains. ТАСС reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have "liberated" Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This indicates RF's capability to conduct successful offensive operations and claim territorial gains in the Zaporizhzhia direction. Сливочный каприз's video from the Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka direction demonstrates RF's capability for combined arms operations involving aerial reconnaissance, artillery strikes, and ground movements to secure contested territory. ТАСС and Два майора report "complete liberation" of DNR territory" and continued offensive into Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. This indicates RF's capability to execute large-scale, multi-oblast offensive operations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF forces took control of a 5-hectare forest area in LNR, indicating capability for small-scale territorial gains. WarGonzo posts video of "Group Nemets" (291st Regiment) conducting drone reconnaissance and artillery strikes on UAF positions in Zaporizhzhia. Военкор Котенок confirms RF MoD claims of advancing "deep into enemy defenses" and "liberating" Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Colonelcassad posts video claiming "Vostok" Group of Forces liberated Novoselovka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Операция Z (Русская Весна) posts photo message of Leonid Slutsky visiting Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. Рыбарь posts a tactical map titled "Liberation of Novoselovka," depicting claimed RF advances and control. RF MoD claims the "Vostok" Group of Forces made ground and took Novoselovka under control in Dnepropetrovsk region. RF Kotsnews reports the Russian army liberated Novoselovka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF Alex Parker Returns reports two Ukrainian DRGs are being sought in Kaluga Oblast (Zhigra, Lyudinovo, Kirov regions). This indicates RF's capability for internal security operations against deep infiltration by UAF special forces. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts photo messages regarding the "Zaporizhzhia direction." БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video alleging a Russian occupier riding a motorcycle was targeted by a kamikaze drone. MoD Russia posts a photo message on the "progress of special military operation as of 4 September 2025." Два майора posts a series of photos, titled "Soldier's Daily Life," depicting a cat with camouflage gear and soldiers in a field environment. STERNENKO posts a video claiming another motorcyclist with a sidecar was destroyed by an FPV drone in the Pokrovsk direction. Colonelcassad posts a video claiming FPV drone crews of the RF 124th Separate Brigade of the RF Armed Forces consistently destroyed a Ukrainian DRG attempting to advance into the island zone of the Dnipro River. RF MOD - UKRAINIAN DRG DESTROYED (DNIPRO RIVER): TASS reports the RF Ministry of Defense states a Ukrainian DRG that attempted to land in the island zone of the Dnipro River was destroyed. RF - SUMY DIRECTION ADVANCE: Colonelcassad posts a video claiming "local advance in Yunakovka and front-line stability on the border" in the Sumy direction. RF - PZBH 2000 HOWITZER DESTROYED: "Воин DV" posts a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer. TASS - RF MOD CLAIMS DRG DESTRUCTION: TASS posts a video with the caption "Footage of the destruction of a Ukrainian DRG attempting to land in the island zone of the Dnipro." RF CONTROL OF DNIPRO DELTA ISLANDS (KHERSON): TASS reports that Saldo claims RF forces maintain control over islands in the Dnipro delta in Kherson Oblast. RF TACTICAL MAP - DONETSK/ZAPORIZHZHIA/DNIPROPETROVSK OFFENSIVE: Colonelcassad posts a tactical map claiming the front line after the "liberation" of the southwestern DNR, showing the offensive continuing into Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetropsk Oblasts. RF MILBLOGGER DRONE REQUEST: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video of an RF soldier requesting a Mavic 3 drone for reconnaissance and artillery spotting. UAF STRIKE ON RF TANK/ARTILLERY/ROBOTIC COMPLEX (DONETSK): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video claiming Phoenix unit operators of the State Border Guard Service (DPSU) destroyed an RF tank, artillery piece, and ground robotic complex in Donetsk Oblast. UAF FPV Drone Strike (Kherson): Шеф Hayabusa reports two RF occupiers were eliminated in the Kherson direction by an FPV drone strike. RF Air/Drone Strike on UAF Buggy (Vostok Group): Voin DV posts video claiming operators of the 69th Cover Brigade of the "Vostok" Group of Forces struck an enemy buggy. RF Bombing of Hospital/Village (Kostiantynivka): RBC-Ukraine reports RF dropped aerial bombs on a hospital in Kostiantynivka and a nearby village. RF MoD claims snipers of the 2nd Combined Arms Army (Tsentr Group of Forces) eliminated over 100 heavy strike drones of the AFU (referring to "Baba-Yaga" drones) in Krasnoarmeysk direction. RF Military Transportation Document Extension: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF MoD plans to increase the validity of military transportation documents from three to six months. UAF claims to have struck an RF ammunition depot in occupied Selydove. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF milblogger "Два майора" posts a map of the Zaporizhzhia front near Stepnohirsk. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO reports increased RF use of heavy equipment and small infantry groups for assaults on the Zaporizhzhia direction, supported by drone footage of strikes on RF positions and vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Finnish (Janus Putkonen) and Ukrainian sources (citing "Ukrainian propagandists") claim Russia has conducted its largest regrouping since 2022 and is ready for a decisive battle for Donbas, publishing intelligence maps. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad posts video of 155th Marine Brigade cadets undergoing an obstacle course, demonstrating physical fitness and teamwork, likely for morale/recruitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF fought Colombian mercenaries for two days, possibly as part of an IO effort to denigrate UAF and its foreign support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) MoD Russia reports servicemembers of the 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade (Vostok Group of Forces) are in Novoselovka, Dnipropetrovsk region. This confirms RF ground presence and activity on this new offensive axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports "active battles" in the Pokrovsko-Dobropolsk direction, indicating continued RF ground pressure and the capability to conduct sustained engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad posts a video showcasing the Russian NRTK "Courier" robotic platform equipped with a laser system for demining, demonstrating RF's capability to deploy advanced engineering systems for battlefield support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF observation and evacuation points were destroyed in the Druzhkovsky direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's videos from the Kharkiv direction, showing drone footage of destroyed UAF mortar positions, vehicles, and a downed 'Baba-Yaga' drone, demonstrate RF's continued capability for ground-support aerial reconnaissance and precision strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO's video from the Sieversk direction, showing drone strikes against a trench/dugout and a motorcycle, confirms ongoing heavy ground fighting in this area and UAF's active defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's video claiming the destruction of a bridge in Krasnoarmeysk direction demonstrates RF's capability for targeted destruction of UAF logistical infrastructure using explosives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Drone Funding/Innovation: "Два майора" posts a video promoting fundraising for "fiber optics" for drones, showcasing a 3D-printed payload delivery system capable of distances of 15-25 km. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF Drone Threat (Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts): A UAV is reported on the border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with a northwest course, indicating persistent reconnaissance/strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF Air Defense (Volgograd): The lifting of flight restrictions at Volgograd airport suggests RF has the capability to quickly assess and manage localized air threats, demonstrating responsive air control measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF Drone Threat (Northern Ukraine): Shaheds are reportedly attacking Ukraine from the north, confirming RF's capability for multi-directional, large-scale drone attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF Counter-Artillery (Donbas): Colonelcassad's report on the destruction of a German 155mm PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer by drones in Donbas highlights RF's enhanced counter-battery capabilities, specifically their ability to use drone ISR for rapid targeting of high-value UAF artillery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Intentions:

  • Strategic Objective: Degrade Ukrainian Warfighting Capacity, Break National Resilience, and Undermine Western Support. RF intends to systematically target Ukraine's ability to produce and sustain military operations by striking defense industry, fuel, and railway infrastructure, while inflicting civilian casualties. RF aims to cripple Ukraine's ability to wage war, disrupt economic life, and sow public discontent. RF is focused on neutralizing UAF drone advantages through EW and targeting UAV infrastructure. Rybar's "Eyes on Orbit" videos could be intended to demonstrate RF's continued military prowess and a deterrent capability. Два майора's video showing an aerial strike on a small boat indicates RF's intent to interdict UAF riverine movements or special operations. MoD Russia's claim of neutralizing a Bradley IFV indicates RF's intent to specifically target and degrade Western-supplied armor and UAF personnel. MoD Russia's claimed strike on UAF UAV command post and strongholds in Krasnoarmeysk direction indicates an intent to directly degrade UAF C2 and fortified positions. The КАБ launches on Kharkiv Oblast indicate an intent to expand the deep strike campaign to further degrade UAF's ability to defend its northern territories and support ongoing ground operations. Народная милиция ДНР's claimed destruction of AFU positions, PVD, and antenna by 68th orb indicates an intent to actively dismantle UAF forward defenses and communication capabilities. Два майора's video claiming a Lancet strike on UAF artillery in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast shows RF's intent to systematically destroy UAF combat assets, particularly artillery, which pose a threat to RF ground operations. Colonelcassad's video from Bryansk border region showing ISR and strikes suggests an intent to deter or neutralize UAF cross-border activity and protect RF border security. Colonelcassad's video of a helicopter strike on a UAV command post in Kupyansk indicates an intent to directly target UAF UAV C2, aiming to degrade UAF drone operational effectiveness in this critical sector. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video from Krasnodar Krai and Rostov Oblast, suggesting UAF strikes, which RF will intend to deter or respond to. Kotsnews videos of Ukrainian artillery firing and RF artillery striking indicate an intent to engage UAF military assets and disrupt civilian life, respectively. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video from a Russian military vehicle's dashcam showing a Ukrainian "Bulava" drone hitting the car, which RF will intend to prevent and counter. RF MoD claims control of Novoselovka in Dnepropetrovsk region and Kotsnews reports its liberation. This indicates an explicit RF intent to expand territorial control westward into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. TASS video reports "Rubikon" operators struck 6 AFU armored vehicles and 3 Starlink stations. The intent is to degrade UAF ground combat capabilities by destroying armored vehicles and disrupt UAF communications by targeting Starlink terminals. Colonelcassad posts a text message claiming "burning out of a mobile UAV command post of the AFU in the Kupyansk area." This indicates an intent to specifically target and neutralize UAF drone command and control nodes, aiming to reduce UAF's drone operational effectiveness in the Kupyansk sector. RBC-Ukraine reports that Sumy and its district are without electricity due to a Russian army strike on critical infrastructure. This indicates RF's intent to degrade Ukrainian critical infrastructure and disrupt civilian life, likely to put pressure on the population and the government. RF MOD - UKRAINIAN DRG DESTROYED (DNIPRO RIVER): TASS reports the RF Ministry of Defense states a Ukrainian DRG that attempted to land in the island zone of the Dnipro River was destroyed. This indicates RF's intent to maintain control over the Dnipro River and its island zones, preventing UAF infiltration. RF DRONE STRIKE (WOODED AREA): "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts a video with the caption "Target destroyed, no survivors." This indicates an intent to eliminate enemy personnel and assets with precision strikes. RF - PZBH 2000 HOWITZER DESTROYED: "Воин DV" posts a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer. This indicates RF's intent to degrade UAF artillery capabilities, a key component of UAF's defense. TASS - RF MOD CLAIMS DRG DESTRUCTION: TASS posts a video with the caption "Footage of the destruction of a Ukrainian DRG attempting to land in the island zone of the Dnipro." This reinforces the intent to demonstrate RF's operational effectiveness in countering UAF special operations. RF ANIMATED STRIKE SCHEME: Colonelcassad's animated strike scheme confirms RF's intent to conduct sustained and widespread aerial operations across Ukraine, targeting various regions. RF IO - YOUTH SABOTAGE NARRATIVE: RF milblogger "Операция Z" (via Русской Весны) posts a narrative claiming children are used for sabotage by Ukraine. This indicates an intent to discredit Ukraine, potentially dehumanize its resistance, and sow internal distrust within Ukraine or among international supporters. RF CONTROL OF DNIPRO DELTA ISLANDS (KHERSON): TASS reports Saldo's claim of RF maintaining control over Dnipro delta islands in Kherson Oblast. This indicates RF's intent to secure strategic riverine territories and reinforce its defensive posture in the Kherson direction, denying UAF riverine operations. RF IO - DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN ENERGY/ODESA BLOCKADE: Colonelcassad posts a video by Rojin on "Destruction of Ukrainian energy, robodogs and naval blockade of Odesa." This indicates RF's intent to project its capabilities and strategic goals of crippling Ukrainian energy infrastructure and naval access. RF Ballistic Missile Strike on Humanitarian Mission (Chernihiv): The confirmed ballistic missile strike on humanitarian demining personnel in Chernihiv, while possibly a targeting error, demonstrates an intent to strike in the area, and even if unintentional, it serves to increase pressure and fear, and disrupt humanitarian efforts. RF Air/Drone Strike on UAF Buggy: Voin DV posts video claiming operators of the 69th Cover Brigade of the "Vostok" Group of Forces struck an enemy buggy. RF Bombing of Hospital/Village (Kostiantynivka): RBC-Ukraine reports RF dropped aerial bombs on a hospital in Kostiantynivka and a nearby village. RF's airspace violations over Poland, if intentional, indicate an intent to probe NATO air defenses, test response times, or demonstrate a disregard for the sovereignty of neighboring states, potentially as a form of intimidation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The strike on a hospital in Kostiantynivka and the deaths in Illinivka demonstrate an intent to inflict widespread damage and casualties, consistent with a strategy of undermining civilian morale and support for the UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF's Vostok Group receiving Mavic 3 drones indicates an intent to rapidly deploy COTS technology to maintain and improve battlefield ISR and precision strike capabilities for ground operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Moskalkova's statement on the return of Kursk residents from Sumy shows an intent to engage in humanitarian diplomacy, possibly to extract concessions or project a humane image to internal or international audiences. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The new UAF Air Force report of a strike UAV threat in Poltava Oblast and aviation weapon use in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia indicates RF's continued intent to maintain aerial pressure across various regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF claims of discovering a drug lab under Ukrainian special services near Novosibirsk indicates an intent to delegitimize Ukraine, attribute illicit activities, and justify internal security operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The damaged bridge and urban strike on the Zaporizhzhia front (Stepnohirsk) indicates RF's intent to degrade UAF defensive infrastructure and apply direct pressure on this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO reporting increased RF use of heavy equipment and small infantry groups for assaults on the Zaporizhzhia direction confirms RF's intent to intensify ground pressure in this critical sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF MoD's claim of destroying a UAF long-range UAV preparation and launch point with an Iskander in Chernihiv Oblast is a clear intent to reframe the attack on the humanitarian demining mission as a legitimate military strike, seeking to deflect accusations of war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The Prosecutor General's Office report on torture and robbery by RF servicemen in Kherson confirms RF's intent to engage in widespread war crimes, including looting and abuse of civilians, as part of their occupation strategy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Dnipropetrovsk ODA reporting sustained FPV drone and artillery attacks in Nikopol region indicates RF's intent to continue harassing and pressuring civilian areas proximate to the front lines, likely to impact morale and potentially to cover ground movements or fix UAF forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO (Воин DV) using Ukrainian military imagery for "SVO fighters don't advise bad things!" is an intent to co-opt narratives and potentially recruit from Ukraine, or demoralize by blurring lines. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF's demonstration of the "Courier" laser demining system indicates an intent to mitigate minefield threats for its own advancing forces and to project technological superiority. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF's destruction of the Lozovaya substation in Kupyansk direction clearly shows an intent to degrade UAF energy infrastructure and disrupt support to forces in that sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The MoD Russia video claiming elimination of a UAF UAV deploying area in Chernihiv region demonstrates an intent to reinforce their narrative of a legitimate military target, further solidifying their justification for the strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO (Alex Parker Returns) highlighting demographic shifts in Yekaterinburg schools and a lack of Russian children is intended to foster nationalist sentiment and anti-immigrant narratives, potentially mobilizing internal support for a more aggressive state policy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO (Басурин о главном) drawing parallels to the Cuban Missile Crisis demonstrates an intent to escalate the perceived threat of the conflict to a global level, implicitly threatening nuclear escalation, and justifying RF actions as defensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) AV БогомаZ's (Bryansk governor) claim of "another vile crime of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" indicates an intent to immediately attribute blame to Ukraine for alleged cross-border attacks, fostering anti-Ukrainian sentiment and justifying RF's own aggressive actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO (Alex Parker Returns) highlighting inter-ethnic tensions in Poland, using derogatory terms, is intended to sow discord among migrant groups, undermine the perception of Ukrainian integration in Europe, and divert attention from RF's own actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА) crowdfunding for drones, showing burnt drones and lamenting low collection, indicates an intent to galvanize public support and resources for RF military efforts, suggesting a high attrition rate for drones and a persistent need for resupply. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO (Рыбарь) reflecting on the SMO's impact ("The SMO changed a lot") signals an intent to manage internal expectations about the conflict's long-term effects and potentially to lay groundwork for new policy narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO (Alex Parker Returns) highlighting "Pavlo's" offense with the West is an intent to portray discord within Ukrainian leadership or with Western partners, aiming to undermine UAF's international relationships. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Kotsnews IO on "Two worlds - two Shapiro" is intended for internal RF audiences, promoting cultural or political narratives, possibly satirical. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's daily summary reflects an intent to maintain narrative control for internal RF audiences. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's video claiming the destruction of a bridge in Krasnoarmeysk direction demonstrates RF's intent to actively degrade UAF logistical capabilities and disrupt front-line resupply. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Drone Funding/Innovation: "Два майора" posts a video promoting fundraising for "fiber optics" for drones, showcasing a 3D-printed payload delivery system capable of distances of 15-25 km. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF Drone Threat (Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts): The reported UAV on the border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts moving northwest indicates RF's intent for continuous aerial surveillance or localized strike missions in a newly active operational area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF Drone Threat (Northern Ukraine): The report of Shaheds attacking Ukraine from the north indicates RF's intent to maintain multi-directional aerial pressure, likely targeting critical infrastructure or military assets in northern regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF IO (Trump/Putin Photo): Janus Putkonen's fabricated image of Trump and Putin at an "Alaska summit" is a clear IO attempt to sow discord within the Western alliance and project a false narrative of a US-Russia rapprochement, undermining support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF IO (Alex Parker Returns - Internal Criticism): Alex Parker Returns' video regarding Leonid Volkov's departure from FBK, with anti-semitic undertones, reveals RF's intent to discredit opposition figures through hateful and divisive rhetoric, particularly targeting those with perceived Western ties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF IO (Western Disunity - Bild): "Operation Z"'s amplification of the Bild report that EU leaders don't expect US sanctions despite Trump's call with the "coalition of the willing" is a direct IO attempt to highlight perceived Western disunity and weaken confidence in a unified front against Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF Counter-Artillery (Donbas): Colonelcassad's report on the destruction of a German 155mm PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer by drones in Donbas demonstrates RF's intent to systematically degrade UAF's Western-supplied artillery capabilities, which are crucial for UAF's defensive operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Courses of Action (COAs):

  • MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action):

    1. RF will continue to **maintain intense offensive pressure on the Sieversk axis to achieve an operational encirclement. RF will likely commit its main effort to seizing full control of Kupyansk, escalating urban combat and attempting to interdict UAF reinforcements, capitalizing on its confirmed presence and infiltration attempts in the city, and capitalizing on fragmented UAF defenses, and conducting reconnaissance-in-force toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF will actively promote claims of UAF surrender in Kupyansk through its IO, even if unverified. RF will seek to consolidate and exploit claimed gains around Kamyshevakha to advance further in Donetsk Oblast, potentially threatening access to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF will attempt to exploit claimed control of Yanvarske and its current assaults on Novoselivka to further advance westward in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, establishing new forward positions and potentially securing key logistical routes, explicitly aiming to strengthen fire pressure on Velikomikhailovka. RF will also likely prepare for offensive operations in the Kherson direction, evidenced by claims of UAF mining Karantynny Island, aiming to seize further territory in southern Ukraine, and consolidating claims of control over Dnipro delta islands. RF will continue localized ground advances, as reported near Chervonaya Dibrova and Grigorievka, and now including a 5-hectare forest in LNR, to achieve small tactical gains and probe UAF defenses. RF milbloggers will continue to provide "Frontline summaries" to frame these operations. RF will actively seek to disrupt UAF logistics via further strikes on railway infrastructure and will continue air-launched КАБ strikes, expanding to new areas like Donetsk Oblast and Sumy Oblast, and specifically targeting UAF defense industry, and will continue indiscriminate shelling/drone attacks on civilian population centers (e.g., Kostiantynivka, Nikopol region, Chuhuiv community, Odesa/Fontanka, Pokrovsk), including use of FPV drones. RF will likely attempt to conduct further strikes on transportation infrastructure to disrupt UAF logistics and movement. RF will continue to actively target UAF UAV operator locations and UAV launch points. RF will continue to target educational facilities, as evidenced by the "Molniya" UAV strike on a Kharkiv university, and humanitarian demining missions, as seen in Chernihiv (now reframed by RF as a legitimate military target through IO, while claiming destruction of UAF observation/evacuation points in Druzhkivka). New Shahed threats in Donetsk Oblast and towards Belozerske/Dobropillya are consistent with this. UAF special forces operations in Sumy Oblast are a new dynamic to this MLCOA, with RF likely to counter these incursions with increased security or fire. RF will continue to utilize anti-thermal imaging cloaks to facilitate covert infiltration operations. RF will continue to use heavy unguided munitions like FAB-3000 against suspected UAF strongpoints or troop concentrations. RF forces have made their largest regrouping since 2022 and are preparing for a "decisive battle" for the rest of Donetsk Oblast, according to UAF assessment and Finnish/Ukrainian sources. Bloomberg also reports RF preparing a new offensive against Ukraine. RF will continue to repel UAF assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. RF will continue drone-guided strikes on fortified positions and personnel, particularly on the Zaporizhzhia front, using heavy equipment and small infantry groups. RF will continue to develop and promote military innovations such as the "Ant" exoskeleton. RF milbloggers will continue to call for public support and crowdfunding for ground forces. RF will continue to employ ATGMs (e.g., Fagot) against UAF armored vehicles and ground positions. RF will continue UAV operator training, as observed in the Konstantinovsky direction, to sustain and improve drone warfare capabilities. RF will actively seek to interdict and capture Ukrainian DRG (sabotage and reconnaissance groups) operating in its border regions, as evidenced by the claimed capture in Bryansk Oblast, and by the reported search for DRGs in Kaluga Oblast, and will exploit these incidents for IO. RF special forces will actively conduct reconnaissance missions in new operational areas, such as west of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, to support and precede ground assaults. RF will continue its offensive into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, solidifying claimed control over Novoselivka and probing further westward. RF will attempt to consolidate claimed control of Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF will continue ground operations in the Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka direction. RF MoD will claim "complete liberation of DNR territory" and a continued offensive into Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, focusing on securing administrative borders and expanding zones of control. RF will continue to use drone-guided artillery strikes on UAF positions in Zaporizhzhia. RF will intensify a new large-scale offensive in the east, deploying additional units to Donetsk Oblast. RF will aggressively push to consolidate control in Novoselovka, Dnipropetrovsk region, and expand operations further west. RF will likely increase drone (FPV) and kamikaze drone (UAV) strikes against UAF light vehicles, motorcycles, and personnel on the ground, as observed in the БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video. RF will continue to publish daily updates on the "progress of special military operation" to frame the overall narrative of its ground operations. RF will continue to interdict UAF DRG movements, particularly in riverine island zones. RF will maintain localized ground advances in the Sumy direction. RF will seek to identify and destroy high-value UAF artillery systems such as the PzH 2000. RF will leverage Rojin's commentary on the "naval blockade of Odesa" to project capability and strategic intent. RF will also continue its counter-drone operations using snipers and thermal sights, as claimed in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. RF will also continue aerial bombing of civilian targets, as demonstrated by the strike on Kostiantynivka hospital. RF will likely increase efforts to interdict UAF counter-logistics operations, such as the reported strike on an RF ammo depot in Selydove. RF's Vostok Group of Forces will continue to rely on COTS drones (e.g., Mavic 3) for reconnaissance and combat support, indicating a persistent adaptation to modern drone warfare, while potentially supplementing its own drone production capabilities. RF will continue to enforce the replacement of vehicle registration documents in "Novorossiya" to solidify its control over occupied territories. RF will continue to develop and deploy specialized engineering equipment, such as the "Courier" laser demining system, to clear obstacles and facilitate ground advances. RF will actively target UAF logistical choke points, as evidenced by the bridge destruction in Krasnoarmeysk direction, to impede resupply to the front lines. RF will continue to actively target and destroy Western-supplied heavy equipment, as demonstrated by the claimed destruction of a Leopard 2 tank on the Zaporizhzhia front, for both tactical advantage and IO. RF will continue its anti-artillery operations, using FPV drones to target high-value UAF systems like the Bohdana in the Kherson direction. RF will continue fierce ground battles in the Pokrovsk direction, burning UAF equipment and infantry, as reported by "Operation Z." RF will continue active battles in the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya direction. RF will also continue to destroy Western-supplied artillery, as confirmed by the destruction of a PzH 2000 in Donbas. Confidence: HIGH
    2. RF will conduct **sustained, medium-to-high volume drone and missile strikes, with a heightened focus on defense industry, fuel, and railway infrastructure targets, alongside opportunistic strikes on population centers resulting in civilian casualties, and now also targeting educational institutions and humanitarian demining missions (which RF will likely reframe as legitimate military targets), and a renewed focus on Odesa/Fontanka from the Black Sea with a large group of Shaheds. Although the latest wave against Odesa was successfully intercepted, RF will likely launch subsequent waves. Expect continued ballistic missile launches from the northeast and south (Tuzly/Mykolaivka), high-speed targets on Sumy (another explosion reported) and Myrhorod, and КАБ launches on Zaporizhzhia, and now additionally targeting Kharkiv Oblast (Iziumskyi district) and Donetsk Oblast. Expect the use of FAB-3000 to become a more regular feature against suspected UAF strongpoints or troop concentrations. RF will also continue aerial strikes on UAF riverine/naval assets. RF will continue to test missile/rocket launch capabilities, as seen in Rybar's "Eyes on Orbit" videos. Expect continued targeting of critical infrastructure, logistics hubs, and military installations across Ukraine. RF will leverage claimed "modernized drones" and precision munitions like Lancet to target UAF military assets. The new ЛМУР strike on a UAF UAV launch point is indicative of RF's continued focus on degrading UAF drone capabilities. New UAV groups targeting various Ukrainian regions are consistent with this COA, including the newly reported UAV on the Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk border and Shaheds from the north. New Shahed threats in Donetsk Oblast and towards Belozerske/Dobropillya are also consistent with this. New КАБ launches on Sumy Oblast extend this aerial threat. The UAV strike in Krasnodar Krai may provoke increased RF air defense measures or a more aggressive posture for cross-border strikes. RF will also claim successful interception of Ukrainian UAVs over its territory (e.g., Rostov Oblast) to project defensive capabilities. RF will also leverage its diverse drone capabilities, including "Rubikon" air defense combat groups, for enhanced reconnaissance and target acquisition. The newly detected UAV group from northern Sumy to Chernihiv Oblast is consistent with this sustained aerial reconnaissance and strike COA. RF will also actively employ electronic warfare (EW) to counter UAF drone activity, particularly on the Zaporizhzhia front. RF will continue to defend its airspace against UAF cross-border UAV strikes. RF attacked with 112 UAVs overnight, with 28 UAVs confirmed to have reached their targets, indicating continued capacity for large-scale, adaptive aerial assaults. RF milbloggers will continue to claim higher numbers of downed Ukrainian drones. RF will continue to express concerns about UAF's alleged development of ground-based cruise missiles. RF will continue to employ long-range artillery systems, such as 2S44 Giatsint-K, for precision strikes against UAF command posts, strongholds, and other fixed targets, particularly in contested areas like Krasnoarmeysk. RF will continue to strike UAF UAV command posts, particularly in the Kupyansk tactical direction, using helicopter assets. RF will continue to target civilian areas in Zaporizhzhia (4 wounded) and Orikhiv (2 wounded), Druzhkivka (7 wounded), and Kozacha Lopan (2 killed, 2 wounded) with drones/artillery, resulting in further casualties. RF will likely intensify ISR and potentially strikes near its northwestern border, in response to NATO ISR flights. RF will continue FPV drone operations against UAF communications infrastructure. RF will likely respond to UAF deep strikes into Krasnodar Krai and Rostov Oblast with increased missile/drone activity or enhanced border security. RF will continue to utilize long-range artillery against UAF self-propelled howitzers and other assets. RF will actively counter UAF drone strikes on its military vehicles. RF will increase drone and missile strikes in northern regions (Chernihiv, Sumy) and potentially use long-range artillery against targets such as bridges/infrastructure, as seen in the milblogger videos (Malva/Genocide claim). RF will specifically target UAF armored vehicles and Starlink satellite communication terminals with drones, as demonstrated by the "Rubikon" operators, aiming to degrade UAF's mobility and C2 capabilities. RF will sustain strikes on critical infrastructure, exemplified by the power outage in Sumy. RF will likely adapt its drone tactics based on acoustic recognition systems. RF will continue to use drone-guided precision strikes against concealed targets in wooded areas. RF will continue to use tactical aviation to destroy high-value UAF artillery. RF's animated strike scheme confirms intent for widespread aerial operations. RF will continue to conduct ballistic missile strikes on Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Chernihiv, as indicated by recent alerts and impacts. RF will increase air defense measures in border regions to counter cross-border incursions, following the reported drone violation of Polish airspace. RF Air Force threats in Chernihiv, Kyiv, and Poltava Oblast, and aviation weapon use in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia, indicate continued aerial surveillance and strike activity in these regions. RF will leverage the destruction of Western-supplied armored vehicles (e.g., M113AS4 ALV in Kharkiv, Leopard 2 in Zaporizhzhia) in its IO to undermine confidence in foreign aid and to project its own military superiority. RF will likely respond to the UAF deep strike on the Luhansk oil depot with increased long-range strikes against Ukrainian energy or logistical infrastructure. RF will warn its forces and populace about new UAF drone capabilities, as exemplified by the "new enemy drone" striking the rear. RF will maintain aerial surveillance and potential strike capabilities in northern Ukraine, as indicated by the UAV detected in Chernihiv Oblast. RF will impose temporary flight restrictions in additional border regions (e.g., Penza Oblast) to enhance internal security and air defense. RF will continue targeted UAV and missile strikes in Kharkiv Oblast, as seen in Khotimlya and Lozovenka. RF will intensify counter-UAS operations in the Sumy direction, actively using measures like drone-catching nets. RF will continue to fund and develop long-range fiber optic drones for deep strikes against UAF targets. Confidence: HIGH
    3. RF Information Operations will heavily amplify claims of ground victories and frame Western support as escalatory and a sign of weakness/disunity (e.g., "Coalition of the Resolute" divisions, Witkoff's early departure, Trump's statements on oil/China, Kallas's comments on RF/China narrative, Italy/Poland not sending troops, US cutting defense aid to border countries). Narratives will focus on discrediting Ukrainian leadership (e.g., "children for sabotage," "Ukrainian drug labs," German election conspiracy theories, Zelenskyy as "military dictator," "Colombian mercenaries," "Narcissist" comments, Alaudinov on future Ukrainian president, anti-semitic undertones in Alex Parker Returns' posts), justifying RF actions with threats (Putin's "resort to weapons" statement, Cuban Missile Crisis parallels), and projecting RF's economic and military resilience (e.g., Shilka parade, RF not paying insurance is false, Putin thanking China for visa-free travel, Durov's historical revisionism, Kazan Helicopter Plant anniversary, main news summaries, Gref's Ruble outlook, Kazan Helicopter Plant, Grozny construction). Diplomatic outreach to non-Western nations (China, DPRK, Russian-Arab summit, humanitarian dialogue with Ukraine via Moskalkova) will continue to solidify an anti-Western bloc. RF will maintain tight internal information control in border regions (Belgorod governor's directives) and use social media to influence public opinion, including new VK channels. IO will also highlight internal Ukrainian challenges (TCC incident, "peaceful preaching" sentencing, humanitarian tragedy like Lisbon funicular, anti-occupier school songs, and RBC-Ukraine amplifying disinformation) and Western instability (e.g., German election conspiracy theories, Washington suing Trump administration). RF will enforce administrative measures in occupied territories (vehicle registration). RF IO will leverage cultural news and celebrity events (Armani death, Hemingway, Efremov, "Beer Nemarathon", orangutan death, Huawei smartphone launches) to project normalcy and divert attention from the conflict. RF IO will likely intensify negative portrayals of migrant groups within Russia, as seen with Rybar's "Uzbek ethnic crime" video, and use narratives of demographic shifts (Yekaterinburg school) to stir nationalist sentiment. RF will continue to highlight domestic humanitarian appeals to humanize its military (e.g., Staromlynovka baby delivery) and internal security efforts (Investigative Committee investigation of serviceman's house fire, Bryansk governor's claims). RF will attempt to monitor and respond to internal dissent (Strelkov's posts, Alaudinov's "rejecting" those who oppose SMO). RF will attempt to co-opt Ukrainian military imagery for its own IO. RF IO will continue to use crowdfunding appeals for drones, implicitly acknowledging high attrition. RF IO will promote historical narratives that support its current geopolitical stance. RF will actively seek to exploit any signs of discord between European leaders and the US, particularly regarding Trump's statements, to further divide the transatlantic alliance. RF will promote new geopolitical alignments (USA, Russia, China, India alliance) to project global influence and undermine Western unity. RF IO will utilize internal/cultural references (e.g., "Two worlds - two Shapiro") for internal consumption or satire. RF will continue its daily summaries to maintain narrative control for internal audiences. RF IO will leverage the detention of a Polish spy in Belarus to demonize Western intelligence efforts and justify their own aggressive posture. RF IO will also try to minimize the impact of negative internal developments such as war veterans committing crimes. RF IO will leverage the UN's "shocked" reaction to the Chernihiv strike to justify its own narrative of the attack as legitimate (UAV launch point) and to deflect international criticism. RF IO will use the report of ten countries ready to send 30,000 troops to Ukraine as further evidence of Western escalation and direct involvement, feeding anti-Western narratives. RF IO will use the new UAF drone striking civilian infrastructure (bus stop/kiosk) in the rear as a justification for its own targeting of civilian areas and to portray UAF as engaging in similar tactics. RF IO will continue to use narratives of US withdrawal from Russian borders to project RF geopolitical success and undermine Western unity. RF IO will use the Luhansk oil depot strike to portray Ukraine as attacking civilian infrastructure or as reckless, potentially as a justification for further RF strikes. RF IO will continue to project normalcy through civilian events, such as sports results, to manage internal morale. RF IO will amplify reports of a "heated conversation" between Trump and European leaders to highlight Western disunity. RF will continue daily summaries of events by milbloggers like Rybar to control the narrative. RF IO will specifically use the fabricated Trump-Putin "Alaska summit" photo to create a narrative of US-Russia rapprochement and sow division in the Western alliance. Confidence: HIGH
    • Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
      1. Massive Escalation of Cross-Border Aggression and Hybrid Attacks against NATO States: Following a significant battlefield setback or perceived Western escalation, RF conducts a coordinated, large-scale cyberattack against critical infrastructure (energy, telecommunications, financial systems) in a NATO frontline state (e.g., Poland, Baltic states), combined with a massed, conventional deep strike (missiles and drones) targeting military installations and command centers in the same or adjacent NATO states. This kinetic attack would be augmented by intentional and repeated incursions of combat aircraft and armed drones into NATO airspace, testing Article 5 and aiming to provoke a kinetic response while creating confusion and sowing doubt about NATO's resolve and unity. Simultaneously, RF special forces conduct overt and covert sabotage operations against critical infrastructure or military targets within NATO countries. This would be accompanied by an aggressive global IO campaign blaming NATO for escalating the conflict, potentially using fabricated evidence of NATO preparations for invasion or direct military involvement in Ukraine. The intent would be to fracture NATO, deter further support for Ukraine, or compel NATO to negotiate on RF terms. The Cuban Missile Crisis IO serves as a stark warning of this potential. The destruction of a bridge on the Krasnoarmeysk direction could be a precursor to clearing the way for ground advances, by isolating UAF forces on the opposite side. The heightened RF IO around "decisive battle" and Alaudinov's comments on future Ukrainian leadership suggest a strategic intent that could underpin such an MDCOA. The reported readiness of ten countries to send up to 30,000 soldiers to Ukraine could be interpreted by RF as a significant escalation warranting such an MDCOA, as it represents a direct increase in foreign military presence within Ukraine. RF IO regarding US withdrawal from Russian borders and the detention of a Polish spy in Belarus provides justification for increasing aggressive posture against NATO states. The recent fabricated Trump-Putin "Alaska summit" photo is a pre-positioning IO effort to frame any future US-Russia de-escalation as a sign of RF strength or a betrayal of Ukraine, or to justify an escalatory action by blaming internal Western divisions. Confidence: MEDIUM
      2. Targeted Chemical/Biological Attack and Cyber-Enabled Destruction of Ukraine's Emerging DIB: RF launches a limited, targeted chemical or biological agent attack (e.g., a non-lethal but highly disruptive agent against a population center or a military supply hub, possibly disguised as an industrial accident or false flag) to sow panic and disorder. This is precisely coordinated with a sophisticated, multi-vector cyberattack to disrupt Ukraine's nascent defense industrial base (DIB), particularly the announced FP-7/FP-9 ballistic missile and air defense development facilities and their supply chains. The cyberattack would aim to erase design data, cripple production capabilities, and disrupt distribution networks. This would be immediately followed by precision conventional strikes on remaining DIB infrastructure, exploiting the chaos caused by the hybrid attack. RF IO would amplify narratives of Ukrainian "drug labs" or "unsafe facilities" to justify the attack, while promoting disinformation to external audiences to deflect blame and undermine international support. Confidence: LOW

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Overall Posture: UAF maintains a determined defensive posture, particularly in Kupyansk and Sieversk, while demonstrating tactical innovation and resilience. Readiness is high across most units, though sustained combat and RF deep strikes present continuous challenges.
• Kupyansk/Sieversk Front: Actively engaged in defense, denying significant RF breakthroughs despite intense pressure. UAF denies RF control of Kupyansk city center, confirming only infiltration attempts that are being countered. Oleg Synegubov's working trip highlights the severity and focus on this direction. UAF is rapidly restoring power in Lozovsky district after RF shelling, demonstrating quick response capabilities. UAF's "Apachi" unit is actively destroying attacking enemy forces in the Sieversk direction, demonstrating continued effective defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Southern/Eastern Fronts: Maintaining defensive operations, conducting localized strikes against RF assets, and adapting to RF tactics (e.g., anti-thermal cloaks). Active engagement of Russian BMPs in Zaporizhzhia by the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade. Minister of Defense working on the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating high-level attention to this new threat axis. Increased FPV drone strikes against RF in Zaporizhzhia. Dnipropetrovsk ODA reports sustained FPV drone and artillery attacks in Nikopol region, indicating active UAF defense. UAF Command Staff in Zaporizhzhia Oblast holding meeting, indicating high-level coordination. "Phoenix" unit successfully destroying RF tank, artillery, and robotic complex demonstrates continued offensive capability. "Active battles" reported in Pokrovsko-Dobropolsk direction indicate UAF forces are engaged and holding.
• Air Defense: Operating under extreme pressure, but demonstrating proficiency in intercepting a high volume of RF UAVs, including a large group targeting Odesa. New AD systems from Nordic/Baltic partners are anticipated. "WU Samurai" unit successfully shooting down Gerbera and Lancet drones. UAF is actively responding to and reporting explosions in Sumy, indicating continuous air defense operations. Syrsky is creating an echeloned system to counter enemy "Shaheds," indicating a strategic, multi-layered approach to air defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Tactical Innovation: Successful deployment of "NC13" ground robotic complexes by the 3rd Assault Brigade for combat, evacuation, and logistics, indicating a proactive approach to modern warfare. Development and use of heavy copters "Vampire" by the 82nd Airmobile Brigade for night bombing missions. UAF is actively developing and demonstrating FPV drones resistant to RF Electronic Warfare (EW), potentially carrying significant munitions, as seen on the Zaporizhzhia front. DeepState reports 210th Separate Assault Regiment (OSHP) received FPV drones on fiber optics.
• Domestic Defense Industry: Continued production of artillery and drones. Announcement by "Fire Point" of FP-7 and FP-9 ballistic missile and air defense system development is a significant step towards long-range strike and enhanced IAMD capabilities.
• Special Forces: Actively conducting "rusorez" operations in Sumy Oblast and successful counter-UAV operations in Pokrovsk direction. UAF General Staff photos show riverine training, indicating readiness for special operations.
• Logistics: Major port investment project signals long-term economic and logistical planning and resilience. Mykolaiv receiving fresh water after 2022 is a significant infrastructure victory.
• Morale/Training: UAF General Staff actively engaging in morale-boosting IO, including sharing videos of adaptation courses for Air Assault Forces. Soldiers training to counter drones. High-level leadership directly engaging with frontline units (Synegubov in Kupyansk, Minister of Defense in Zaporizhzhia). Strong public support for crowdfunding. POW family meetings indicate commitment to personnel welfare. The capture of 9 RF soldiers by 4 UAF soldiers on their first mission is a significant morale booster. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Counter-Intelligence: SBU and National Police continue to successfully detain RF agents involved in sabotage and espionage, including a significant recent success in Kyiv, Lviv, and Volyn Oblasts (5 agents, 3 under 18). Detention of 5 additional agents for arson and sabotage. Prosecutor General's Office actively combating illicit trade supporting RF.
• Desertion Policy: Verkhovna Rada reinstating criminal liability for unauthorized absence (СЗЧ), but also simplifying the return to service, indicating efforts to manage manpower and discipline while encouraging reintegration.
• New UAF Capabilities: UAF Phoenix unit (DPSU) successfully destroyed an RF tank, artillery, and a ground robotic complex in Donetsk Oblast. UAF aviation is conducting strikes against RF positions, demonstrating continued air support capabilities.
• Law Enforcement: Ukrainian police conducting routine traffic stops, indicating functioning civilian governance in non-combat areas. However, reports of gunfire on a TCC group near Lutsk suggest localized internal security challenges or resistance to mobilization efforts.
• Air Defense/Ballistic Missile Response: UAF Air Force, KMVA, and regional administrations are issuing immediate alerts and responding to ballistic missile threats in Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, and Sumy.
• Resilience of Education: Children attending school in underground classrooms in Kharkiv demonstrates remarkable resilience and commitment to education despite ongoing conflict.
• Internal Anti-Corruption Efforts: Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor's Office uncovering new abuses highlights ongoing efforts to combat corruption at regional levels. The VAKS decision regarding Tetiana Krupa is another example of ongoing anti-corruption efforts. An interim measure for SBU General Vityuk indicates continued focus on accountability.
• Civilian Support Infrastructure: KMVA highlighting efforts to make assistance "maximally accessible and understandable" (e.g., "Ye Opora" app) shows ongoing adaptation for civilian support under wartime conditions.
• Zelenskyy Diplomacy: President Zelenskyy's active participation in the "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting with over 30 countries demonstrates sustained diplomatic efforts to secure long-term security guarantees and immediate military support. He emphasizes that security guarantees must be legislated at a parliamentary level, indicating a focus on formalizing commitments. Zelenskyy's statements about Trump calling on Hungary and Slovakia to stop buying Russian oil demonstrate UAF's continued efforts to influence and leverage international partners.
• General Staff Updates: UAF General Staff provides regular operational updates, reinforcing transparency and command visibility.
• Demining Efforts: Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov reports successful demining of almost 212 hectares in a week, indicating ongoing efforts to restore land and protect civilians.
• Veteran Policy (Kyiv): KMVA reports a meeting discussing the "Strategy for Veteran Policy until 2030" and its implementation in Kyiv, indicating forward-looking planning for veteran integration and welfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• POW Issues: Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War meeting with US Embassy representatives indicates ongoing diplomatic efforts regarding POWs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• War Crime Documentation: Prosecutor General's Office actively documenting and investigating RF war crimes, as seen in the Kherson torture and robbery report, contributing to legal accountability efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kryvyi Rih Stability: Олександр Вілкул providing a briefing reinforces local command oversight and stability in Kryvyi Rih. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Mobilization Transparency: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 showcasing TCC groups with body cameras for public notification indicates UAF's efforts to increase transparency in mobilization efforts and counter negative narratives. "Резерв+" expanded functions for online fine payment is an administrative success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• International Support Diplomacy: Zelenskyy's press conference with Macron, highlighting allied military presence and EU membership as security guarantees, demonstrates proactive diplomacy to secure long-term defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Internal Legal Oversight: The report on the SBU General Vityuk choosing an interim measure reflects UAF's commitment to internal legal processes and accountability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Human Rights Concerns (Internal): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts about a four-year prison sentence for "peaceful preaching," which if pertaining to Ukraine, could indicate internal human rights concerns or misuse of legal processes, potentially impacting public sentiment and requiring internal review. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Daily Information Summary: РБК-Україна providing a daily summary shows UAF's efforts to keep the public informed and focused. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF IO (Western Support Narrative): Оперативний ЗСУ and ASTRA amplify a Financial Times report that the U.S. will cut defense aid for European countries bordering Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF IO (Humanitarian Tragedy): РБК-Україна reports an update on the funicular catastrophe in Lisbon, stating a Ukrainian citizen died. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF Casualties (Khotimlya, Kharkiv Oblast): The number of casualties from the RF drone attack on Khotimlya is increasing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF Casualties/Losses: Colonelcassad and DeepState report the death of Captain Artem Sviridov, commander of the 2nd Assault Company, 1st Assault Battalion, 210th OSHP, in the Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF Diplomacy: РБК-Україна reports on Fico (Slovakia) plans for a meeting with Zelenskyy in Uzhhorod. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • International Condemnation (Chernihiv Strike): ASTRA reports Denmark's Foreign Ministry condemned the RF strike on the humanitarian mission near Chernihiv, stating it's "another proof that Putin does not intend to end his illegal aggressive war." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Air Defense (Zaporizhzhia): The air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Ground Operations (Sieversk Direction): STERNENKO posts video claiming the "Apachi" unit is striking targets around the clock. The video shows drone footage of wooded areas with explosions on small structures/positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Ground Operations (Donbas): Оперативний ЗСУ posts video with the caption "'Mom, Dad, I'm in Donbas!'" showing Ukrainian soldiers clearing a wooded area and engaging enemy positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • German Military Aid to Ukraine (NEW): РБК-Україна reports Germany plans to provide equipment for four Ukrainian brigades. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF General Staff Update: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts operational information as of 22:00 04.09.2025 regarding the Russian invasion, with an image of a soldier in a wooded area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Counter-Offensive/Deep Strike (Luhansk): STERNENKO, RBC-Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, and ASTRA confirm a successful UAF strike on an oil depot in occupied Luhansk, causing a large fire. This demonstrates UAF's capability for deep strikes against RF logistical targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF POW Incident (Klishchiivka): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian mortar crew from 93rd Brigade was captured by RF forces on Klishchiivka direction after resisting an assault. This highlights the difficult and dangerous conditions faced by UAF forces and the potential for personnel losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • International Support (Troop Contribution): RBC-Ukraine (citing Radio Svoboda) reports ten countries are ready to send up to 30,000 soldiers to Ukraine. This indicates a significant potential for increased foreign military support for UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UN Reaction (Chernihiv Strike): RBC-Ukraine reports the UN is "shocked" by the Russian strike on a humanitarian mission near Chernihiv. This indicates strong international condemnation of RF actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Air Defense Strategy: UAF is establishing an echeloned "anti-Shahed" system, as confirmed by Syrsky during a General Staff meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Online Drone Operations Board: A verified, real-time public online scoreboard showing the results of each SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) unit and the overall unmanned systems grouping is now publicly available. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: UAF IO (School Event): A video from Cherkasy school showing students singing an anti-occupier song with profanity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: UAF Deep Strike (Luhansk Oil Depot): Video confirms a strong fire at an RF oil refinery in Luhansk, following an impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF IO (Trump/Putin Photo - RBC-Ukraine): RBC-Ukraine reports Trump published a photo with Putin observing US fighter-bombers over Alaska. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:

  • Air Defense Interceptions: Successful neutralization of 84 out of 112 RF UAVs overnight, including all 14 Shaheds targeting Odesa/Fontanka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Successful shootdown of 2 "Gerbera" and 1 "Lancet" drone by "WU Samurai." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Syrsky developing an echeloned system to counter Shaheds is a strategic success for long-term air defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Air raid alert lifted for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF SAM System Destruction: Destruction of an S-300V SAM system in Zaporizhzhia direction and claims of destroying S-300 PU and 9S36 radar. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Deep Strikes into RF Territory: Drone attacks on 17 Russian oil refineries in August, disabling 24.2% of RF refining capacity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Likely strike on two RF radar complexes in Rostov. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) Successful strike on an oil depot in occupied Luhansk, causing a large fire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Naval Strikes (Crimea): Successful "Flamingo" cruise missile strike on six RF hovercraft (four visually confirmed) at a border base in Crimea, with one serviceman killed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ground Robotics Deployment: Successful deployment of "NC13" ground robotic complexes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Artillery/Vehicle/Personnel Destruction: Successful drone strikes against RF D-20 artillery and a 2S3 self-propelled howitzer. Successful strike on a Russian engineering vehicle. Engagement of RF BMPs by 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade in Zaporizhzhia. FPV drone strike on RF positions and vehicles in Zaporizhzhia. "Phoenix" unit successfully destroying an RF tank, artillery, a ground robotic complex, and personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) "Apachi" unit successfully destroying attacking enemy forces in Sieversk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF "Apachi" unit striking targets around the clock in Sieversk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Counter-Infiltration: Successful targeting of RF infiltration attempts using anti-thermal imaging cloaks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Counter-Intelligence: Detention of 5 RF agents (3 under 18) preparing sabotage in Kyiv, Lviv, and Volyn Oblasts. Detention of 5 additional agents for arson and sabotage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) SBU General Vityuk's interim measure reflects ongoing internal legal processes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Domestic Missile Development: Announcement by "Fire Point" of FP-7 and FP-9 ballistic missile and air defense system development. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Phoenix Unit Success: Phoenix unit operators (DPSU) destroyed an RF tank, artillery piece, and ground robotic complex in Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Aviation Strikes: Ukrainian aviation actively striking RF occupier positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Counter-RF Maneuvers (Lyman Direction): UAF 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade's reconnaissance company effectively engaging RF personnel in wooded areas, demonstrating successful counter-maneuvers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • FPV Drone Strikes (Kherson): Successful FPV drone strike eliminating two RF occupiers in Kherson direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Successful Diplomatic Engagement: "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting in Paris, with over 30 countries participating to finalize security guarantees and support. Commitments to long-range missile supply. Macron states 26 countries are ready to send troops or support for security. Macron indicates US contribution to guarantees will be determined soon. Zelenskyy emphasizes parliamentary approval and EU membership. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports up to 30,000 foreign soldiers for Ukraine from the "Coalition of the Willing." Zelenskyy's press conference with Macron is a key success. Meeting with US Embassy on POW issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Germany plans to provide equipment for four Ukrainian brigades. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RBC-Ukraine (citing Radio Svoboda) reports ten countries are ready to send up to 30,000 soldiers to Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UN is "shocked" by the Russian strike on a humanitarian mission near Chernihiv, providing diplomatic leverage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Ammunition Depot Strike: UAF claims a successful strike on an RF ammunition depot in occupied Selydove, which would significantly degrade RF logistical capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Demining Success: Almost 212 hectares of territory in Kharkiv Oblast were demined in a week. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF FPV Drone Resupply: 210th Separate Assault Regiment (OSHP) received a batch of FPV drones on fiber optics, enhancing UAF tactical capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • War Crime Documentation: The Prosecutor General's Office report on torture and robbery in Kherson is a success in documenting RF war crimes for future accountability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Mobilization Transparency: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 showcasing TCC groups with body cameras for public notification indicates UAF's efforts to increase transparency in mobilization efforts and counter negative narratives. "Резерв+" expanded functions for online fine payment is an administrative success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF POW Capture: Four UAF soldiers capturing nine RF soldiers is a clear tactical success and a morale boost. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Rapid Infrastructure Repair: Power being reconnected in Lozovsky district after RF shelling demonstrates UAF's quick response and resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • International Economic Engagement: Meeting between Zaporizhzhia regional leadership and JERU representatives signifies successful engagement for reconstruction and development. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Air Defense Strategy: Establishment of an echeloned "anti-Shahed" system. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Online Drone Operations Board: Public availability of verified, real-time drone operations data. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: UAF Deep Strike (Luhansk Oil Depot): Video confirms a strong fire at an RF oil refinery in Luhansk, following an impact, which is a successful UAF deep strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Setbacks:

  • Infrastructure Damage from Strikes: Power outage in Sumy due to RF strike on critical infrastructure. Civilian casualties and damage in Zaporizhzhia (4 wounded), Orikhiv (2 wounded), Druzhkivka (7 wounded), and Kozacha Lopan (2 killed, 2 wounded) from RF strikes. Fire in Odesa warehouse. Damage in Sloviansk and Kharkiv from night attacks. Aerial bombing of a hospital in Kostiantynivka and a nearby village, with 2 deaths in Illinivka. Damaged bridge and urban strike on Zaporizhzhia front. New missile alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. New Shahed threat to Odesa Oblast. Nikopol region suffered sustained FPV drone and artillery attacks. Nova Poshta branch in Druzhkivka damaged by night shelling. RF destruction of Lozovaya substation in Kupyansk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Continued RF UAV threats to Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts indicate ongoing pressure and potential for further damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New high-speed target on Sumy indicates continued threat to infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Infiltration in Kupyansk: DeepState confirms RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk, despite UAF denials of "firm control." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Contested Territorial Claims (Novoselivka, Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia): RF claims liberation and control of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with video evidence. MoD Russia explicitly reports 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade in Novoselovka. These claimed gains, if confirmed, represent a significant loss of territory and opening of a new axis. STERNENKO confirms increased RF use of heavy equipment and small infantry groups for assaults on the Zaporizhzhia direction. "Active battles" in Pokrovsko-Dobropolsk direction suggest UAF is under pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Civilian Water Crisis: Severe humanitarian situation with water shortages in occupied Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ballistic Missile Impacts: Explosions heard in Sumy and Chernihiv following ballistic missile alerts, indicating successful RF strikes or missile failures with ground impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Ballistic Missile Strike on Humanitarian Mission (Chernihiv): A ballistic missile strike on a humanitarian demining mission in Chernihiv Oblast resulted in one fatality and two wounded, which has now increased to 5 wounded. This represents a direct and tragic impact on humanitarian efforts. RF attempts to reframe this as a legitimate military target are part of their IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Diplomatic Setback (Witkoff's Early Departure): Witkoff's early departure from the "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting in Paris could be perceived as a minor setback or a sign of internal discord, despite the overall positive outcome. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Security Incident (Volyn): Reports of gunfire against a TCC group in a village near Lutsk, Volyn Oblast, indicate potential internal resistance to mobilization efforts, which could divert resources and impact manpower. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Human Rights Concerns (Internal): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts about a four-year prison sentence for "peaceful preaching," which if pertaining to Ukraine, could be a setback for internal human rights and create negative public sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Tactical Success Claims: RF claims UAF observation and evacuation points were destroyed in Druzhkivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's videos from the Kharkiv direction, showing destroyed UAF mortar positions, vehicles, and a downed 'Baba-Yaga' drone, indicate tactical setbacks for UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF claims of tactical successes against UAF vehicles in Konstantinovka direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF claims destruction of a Ukrainian "Bohdana" 155mm howitzer in Kherson direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Information Environment Challenge: Reports of US cutting defense aid to Russia-bordering countries, amplified by UAF IO, could pose a challenge to maintaining morale and international support, if perceived as a weakening of resolve. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Logistical Disruption: RF claims to have destroyed a key UAF logistics bridge on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. If confirmed, this would be a significant logistical setback for UAF in the Donetsk sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Loss of Western-Supplied Equipment: RF claims destruction of a rare Australian-supplied M113AS4 ALV armored personnel carrier in Kharkiv Oblast. This represents a material loss and an IO win for RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Loss of Western-Supplied Heavy Armor: RF claims destruction of a German Leopard 2 tank on the Zaporizhzhia front. This is a significant material loss and a major IO victory for RF, undermining confidence in Western military aid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Casualties/Loss of Key Personnel: Colonelcassad and DeepState report the death of Captain Artem Sviridov, commander of the 2nd Assault Company, 1st Assault Battalion, 210th OSHP, in the Zaporizhzhia direction. This is a significant loss of an experienced UAF commander, likely impacting unit cohesion and morale in a critical sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian mortar crew captured on Klishchiivka direction, highlighting potential for personnel losses and difficult combat conditions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (New UAF Drone Threat): The warning from Два майора regarding a "new enemy drone" that strikes "deep in the rear," coupled with video evidence of a UAF drone striking a roadside structure, represents a tactical setback in terms of maintaining rear area security and an IO challenge for UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Civilian Casualties (Khotimlya, Kharkiv Oblast): The increasing number of casualties from the RF drone attack on Khotimlya is a direct setback in terms of human cost. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Civilian Infrastructure Damage (Lozovenka, Kharkiv Oblast): The RF missile strike on Lozovenka results in damage, presenting a setback for local infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Counter-UAS Success (Sumy Direction): RF claims to be catching UAF UAVs in nets, which represents a tactical setback for UAF drone operations in the Sumy border region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Intense Ground Pressure (Pokrovsk Direction): RF claims of mass destruction of UAF equipment and infantry in fierce battles near Pokrovsk indicate significant UAF setbacks in personnel and materiel losses, and sustained pressure on this front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF Counter-Artillery (Donbas): The confirmed destruction of a German 155mm PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer in Donbas represents a significant material loss for UAF, particularly a high-value Western-supplied asset. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Air Defense Munitions: Continuous high expenditure of interceptors to counter RF drone and missile attacks. Urgent need for replenishment and expanded domestic production, especially for new AD systems from Nordic/Baltic countries. Syrsky's initiative for an echeloned counter-Shahed system will require significant resources for development, procurement, and deployment of new technologies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• ISR Assets: Critical need for enhanced ISR, particularly in Kupyansk, Donetsk Oblast, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district), and Zaporizhzhia region, to verify RF ground truth and track new offensives.
• Counter-UAS Technology: Critical requirement for advanced EW and kinetic solutions to counter evolving RF drone tactics, including FPVs and anti-thermal cloaks. Poland's development of a "PLargonia" drone signals a potentially new avenue for counter-UAS capabilities. RF's warning about a "new enemy drone" striking the rear emphasizes the constant need for UAF to develop new counter-drone tactics and technologies, and for RF to develop countermeasures to new UAF capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF's fundraising for fiber optic drones highlights their focus on extending drone range, which will put new demands on UAF counter-UAS capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Humanitarian Aid: Ongoing need for humanitarian assistance in frontline areas and occupied territories, particularly for water and medical supplies (e.g., occupied Donetsk water shortage), and support for demining operations. The UN's reaction to the Chernihiv strike further underscores the need for protection and resources for humanitarian missions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Manpower Management: Managing criminal liability for unauthorized absences (СЗЧ) and simplifying return to service to optimize manpower. Addressing internal resistance to mobilization (e.g., TCC incident near Lutsk). The capture of UAF mortar crew on Klishchiivka highlights the persistent demand for combat-ready personnel and the severe attrition experienced in frontline engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The reported readiness of ten countries to send up to 30,000 soldiers to Ukraine indicates a potential significant boost to UAF manpower, but also implies logistical and integration requirements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Psychological Support: Increased need for psychological support for military personnel returning from combat, with an observed shortage of qualified psychologists in Russia, implying a similar need for UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Critical Infrastructure Repair: Significant resources are required for rapid repair of critical infrastructure damaged by RF strikes (e.g., power in Sumy, water in Mykolaiv, Nova Poshta in Druzhkivka, Lozovaya substation in Kupyansk). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The successful UAF strike on the Luhansk oil depot will require RF to re-route and secure new fuel supplies, potentially straining their logistical network. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Funding for FPV Drones: Continued crowdfunding and state investment for advanced FPV drones that are EW-resistant, as highlighted by the Zaporizhzhia front video, and for fiber-optic FPV drones, as demonstrated by the 210th OSHP. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Demining Resources: Continued need for resources to sustain demining efforts, particularly in heavily contaminated areas like Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Military Logistics (Heavy Equipment): The increased RF use of heavy equipment and small infantry groups on the Zaporizhzhia direction will necessitate UAF to deploy or strengthen counter-heavy equipment capabilities, requiring specialized munitions and platforms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Judicial Resources (Anti-Corruption): The high-profile case of Tetiana Krupa and SBU General Vityuk requires continued attention to demonstrate rule of law and anti-corruption efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Internal Legal Review (Human Rights): The case of "peaceful preaching" resulting in a four-year prison sentence, if pertaining to Ukraine, could constrain UAF's soft power and necessitate internal review. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Logistical Maintenance/Repair: The claimed destruction of a bridge in Krasnoarmeysk will require significant resources for repair or the establishment of alternative logistical routes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Heavy Armor Replenishment: The confirmed loss of a Leopard 2 tank on the Zaporizhzhia front highlights the ongoing need for replenishment of heavy armor from Western partners, and potentially increased domestic production to offset losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Personnel Replenishment/Training: The loss of a commander like Captain Artem Sviridov in a key sector (Zaporizhzhia) underscores the ongoing need for trained and experienced personnel, particularly NCOs and junior officers, and effective succession planning. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• NEW: Heavy Artillery Replenishment: The destruction of a PzH 2000 in Donbas highlights the urgent need for replenishment of Western-supplied heavy artillery systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF Propaganda:

  • False Claims of Success: Heavily amplifying claims of "liberating" Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia), "complete liberation of DNR," and significant gains in Kupyansk, often with drone footage to bolster credibility, despite UAF denials. Promoting claimed capture of a Ukrainian DRG in Bryansk Oblast and search for others in Kaluga Oblast. Promoting narrative of "decisive battle" for Donbas. Explicitly claiming 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade in Novoselovka, Dnipropetrovsk region. Claiming destruction of Lozovaya substation in Kupyansk direction and UAF observation/evacuation points in Druzhkivka. Claiming successful strikes against UAF mortar positions, vehicles, and downed drones in Kharkiv direction. Projecting success through showcasing helicopter production and drone operations. Glorifying proxy forces ("Somali", "Piatnashka", "legendary militiamen"). RF claims destruction of a key UAF logistical bridge in Krasnoarmeysk. RF highlights destruction of Western-supplied M113AS4 ALV armored personnel carrier in Kharkiv Oblast. RF milblogger claims destruction of a German Leopard 2 tank on the Zaporizhzhia front, showcasing drone footage of the strike and subsequent fire. Kadyrov_95's video of urban development in Grozny and Fighterbomber's video of Kazan Helicopter Plant are used to project internal strength and industrial capacity. RF milbloggers provide daily summaries to frame operations. RF claims of tactical successes against UAF vehicles in Konstantinovka direction. RF milbloggers provide daily summaries to frame these operations, as seen with Colonelcassad's update on the "progress of special military operation." RF claims destruction of a Ukrainian "Bohdana" 155mm howitzer in the Kherson direction using FPV drones. RF milbloggers like "Operation Z" are showcasing "fierce battles" near Pokrovsk, claiming mass destruction of UAF equipment and infantry to project overwhelming RF success. Colonelcassad is reinforcing the narrative of active battles in the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya direction. Colonelcassad is using drone footage to claim RF success in "battle of drones" in Sumy direction, showing UAF UAVs caught in nets. Rybar's daily summary (4 September) contributes to the narrative of RF operational control. RF is highlighting the destruction of a German PzH 2000 in Donbas as a significant tactical success and an IO victory against Western-supplied heavy artillery. NEW: Colonelcassad posts videos titled "Donbas. 'Rubikon' is working," showcasing drone strikes on various UAF military targets (BTR, BBM, communication antennas, Starlink terminal) with a narrative overlay of "survival, resistance, and judgment." This aims to visually demonstrate RF's superior combat capabilities and target intelligence, while framing the conflict in moralistic terms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Dehumanization/Discrediting Ukraine: Pushing narratives that Ukraine uses children for sabotage (via NYT misattribution), pays mercenaries with funds for deceased families, and that Ukrainian leaders are "military dictators" (Zelenskyy or "cocaine Führer") or "idiots" ("Narcissist"). Attempting to discredit Macron and Pavel Durov. Claiming "vile attacks" by "Ukrainian Nazis" on border regions (Bryansk governor's statement). Alleging that Ukrainian special services are running drug labs in Russia (Novosibirsk). Utilizing "Uzbek ethnic crime" narrative to stir social division, now reinforced by a video claiming inter-ethnic tensions in Poland, using derogatory terms for Ukrainians and Central Asians. Claims UAF fought Colombian mercenaries. Co-opting Ukrainian military imagery for pro-RF messaging ("SVO fighters don't advise bad things!"). Attempting to link internal Russian juvenile crime issues to Ukrainian sabotage claims. Documenting alleged Ukrainian war crimes (Kherson torture by "Akhmat") while simultaneously re-framing its own strikes (Chernihiv). Alaudinov's statements on "rejecting" those not supporting the SMO and naming a "possible next Ukrainian president" are direct efforts to control internal discourse and project influence over Ukraine's sovereignty. Kotsnews' "Two worlds - two Shapiro" aims to draw a satirical contrast, likely for internal RF consumption. Операция Z's video portraying Zelenskyy as subservient to Trump aims to undermine Zelenskyy's leadership and amplify narratives of US influence over Ukrainian decision-making. RF IO from Два майора warns RF soldiers of a "new enemy drone" that strikes "deep in the rear" and presents video evidence of a UAF drone striking a civilian roadside structure (bus stop/kiosk), likely to justify RF's own targeting of civilian areas and portray UAF as engaging in similar tactics. RF IO will try to exploit the increasing number of UAF casualties from drone/missile strikes in Khotimlya and Lozovenka in Kharkiv Oblast to demoralize UAF and civilian population. NEW: Alex Parker Returns' video regarding Leonid Volkov's departure from FBK contains anti-semitic undertones and targets perceived foreign influence, continuing RF's use of divisive rhetoric to discredit opposition. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Western Disunity/Weakness: Framing the "Coalition of the Willing/Resolute" as ineffective or divided ("Hesitant Coalition" split into three camps, "idiots' meeting"), waiting for Trump, and highlighting Witkoff's early departure. Amplifying statements (Trump, Sarkozy) critical of Western support for Ukraine (e.g., Trump telling Europe to stop buying Russian oil, Italy/Poland not sending troops). Spreading disinformation about Germany's involvement in supplying missiles. Maria Zakharova stating Ukraine's security guarantees are "guarantees of danger" for Europe. Portraying France in civil unrest with protests and government instability. Claiming that the EU fears Germany may refuse to participate in a military mission in Ukraine. Naryshkin's claim of "Western leaders going down the path to an abyss" serves to delegitimize Western leadership. Using political cartoons to mock Western support for Ukraine and US demands for Europe to stop buying RF oil. Basurin o Glavnom claims 7 AfD candidates died before German elections, suggesting a conspiracy against the pro-Russian party. Kallas's comments on the RF/China WWII narrative are noted by RF IO, indicating an awareness of external critiques. TASS quotes Putin dismissing Rutte's diplomatic efforts. TASS reporting Washington authorities suing Trump administration to highlight US internal divisions. Amplifying reports of US cutting defense aid to Russia-bordering countries. Alex Parker Returns attempts to highlight perceived Ukrainian discontent with the West. TASS highlighting a "heated conversation" between European leaders and Trump, implying no new sanctions, aims to sow discord within the transatlantic alliance. Janus Putkonen amplifying a Bild report on "heated conversation" between European leaders and Trump on Ukraine is specifically intended to highlight divisions within the Western alliance and cast doubt on the effectiveness of future sanctions. RF IO (Janus Putkonen) promotes a narrative of "USA's withdrawal from Russia's borders" as part of an "Alaska 2025 agreement," designed to project Western strategic retreat and RF geopolitical success. RF IO (Операция Z) further amplifies the detention of a Polish spy in Belarus, reinforcing narratives of Western espionage and aggression. RF IO will frame the reported readiness of ten countries to send up to 30,000 soldiers to Ukraine as a direct escalation and foreign intervention, feeding anti-Western narratives and justifying RF actions. RF IO is actively leveraging the RBC-Ukraine report (citing BILD) of a "heated conversation" between Trump and the "Coalition of the Resolute" to further highlight perceived Western disunity and dysfunction. NEW: Janus Putkonen posted a fabricated image of Trump and Putin at an "Alaska summit," overtly attempting to sow discord within the Western alliance and create a false narrative of a US-Russia rapprochement. Operation Z also amplified a Bild report that EU leaders don't expect US sanctions against Russia despite Trump's call, emphasizing perceived Western disunity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Resilience/Strength: Projecting economic stability (dropping mortgage rates, growing bank deposits, Far East development, resumed Aeroflot flights, mobile internet quality in Moscow, Ozon re-registration, Huawei smartphone launches, Gref's Ruble outlook, Kazan Helicopter Plant, Grozny construction), military strength (Putin touring patriotic centers, new military hardware development - "Ant" exoskeleton, sniper success against drones, promotion of Magomed Daudov to Lt. General, "small air defense" capabilities, Fighterbomber's aerial photo, Vostok Group receiving Mavic 3 drones, Marine Brigade training, Shilka parade, Courier demining robot, RF MoD video on UAV deploying area elimination, claims of downing UAF drones over Rostov/Belgorod/Black Sea, Belarus detention of Polish spy), and diplomatic influence (China, DPRK, SCO, GCC, Afghanistan, Laos, Abbas attendance at Russian-Arab summit, humanitarian dialogue with Ukraine via Moskalkova, Putin thanking China for visa-free travel, Durov's historical revisionism). Leveraging internal cultural events (cycling festival in Moscow, Yandex robots, cultural news, celebrity news, Milan mourning for Armani, "Beer Nemarathon", orangutan death) to project normalcy. Promoting a narrative of internal security and law enforcement (Akhmat Circus traffic stop, drug lab discovery, Investigative Committee investigation). Launching new infrastructure projects (Pacific Railway). Using military transportation document extensions to project administrative efficiency. Zyuganov's statements on minimum wage contribute to an internal narrative of economic debate and social welfare. Promoting integration of "Novorossiya" into RF legal/administrative framework (vehicle registration). Promoting veteran adaptation programs. Featuring a humanitarian appeal for a soldier who delivered her baby under shelling, to humanize RF servicemen. Using historical narratives (Sakhalin, Soviet-Japanese War, Cuban Missile Crisis) to reinforce geopolitical claims and threat projection. RF Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement on AZAL plane catastrophe aims to defend RF's international reputation. Milblogger (Rybar) reflecting on "SMO changed a lot" allows for flexible framing of conflict's impact. Операция Z's post hinting at a USA, Russia, China, India alliance is designed to project a new geopolitical order and RF's expanded influence. AV БогомаZ posts showcasing sports and cultural facilities in Bryansk serve to highlight social welfare and normalcy in border regions. Alex Parker Returns' sarcastic video about Geran drones attempts to project RF's aerial superiority and resilience in the face of UAF counter-efforts. Два майора's "The SMO changed a lot" is an explicit statement designed to manage internal expectations about the conflict's long-term effects and potentially lay groundwork for new policy narratives, while still supporting the war effort. TASS reporting Russia's national football team drawing with Jordan is used to project normalcy and deflect from ongoing conflict. RF milbloggers are consistently providing "results" and summaries (e.g., Rybar's daily summary) to project a sense of control and success. RF is showcasing its drone innovation and fundraising for advanced fiber optic drones to demonstrate technological adaptation and public support for the war effort. NEW: Colonelcassad's "Rubikon" videos, showcasing drone strikes on various UAF targets, aims to project RF's combat effectiveness and technological superiority. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS reporting Neuralink's 2026 plans is a subtle IO play, attempting to associate Russia with technological advancement by highlighting a major tech development, possibly for a domestic audience or to project a modern image. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Shifting Blame: Accusing Europe of provoking a big war with Russia, and Ukraine/EU of lacking desire for peace. Threatening retaliation (seizure of "British Crown valuables") for asset transfers. Explicitly reframing the Chernihiv humanitarian demining mission strike as a legitimate destruction of a "UAF long-range UAV preparation and launch point" (MoD Russia video and Colonelcassad). Bryansk governor immediately blaming Ukraine for alleged "vile crimes." RF IO will attempt to reframe the UN's "shocked" reaction to the Chernihiv strike, either by denying the UN's assessment or by reaffirming its own narrative of a legitimate military target. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Control: Prohibiting unofficial information about military operations in Belgorod. Using IO to manage internal issues like conscription challenges or economic cooling (Reshetnikov's statement), and new initiatives for parental responsibility. Attempting to suppress dissent (Murmansk arrest). Banning "extremist" social networks in Belarus. Strelkov's critical posts (SMO format, Gubarev arrest) are examples of internal, albeit nationalist, dissent that RF must manage. Belgorod governor's directives on reporting. The report of an RF veteran suspected of rape and murder in Altai Krai is a negative domestic issue that RF IO will likely attempt to suppress or spin to minimize its impact on public perception of servicemen. Temporary airspace restrictions in Penza Oblast indicate tightened internal control over airspace in response to potential threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Controversial Military Narratives: Z-propagandist Kashevarova claiming units of personnel with hepatitis and HIV are being formed, with distinctive armbands. This is highly problematic and likely intended to shock. Alex Parker Returns' posts on Yekaterinburg schools use highly inflammatory and derogatory language.
  • Psychological Operations: Targeting internal RF audiences with themes of care for soldiers (humanitarian aid, legal services for discharge, crowdfunding), and using "soft" IO like "Soldier's Daily Life" photos with a cat and "Confession behind the balaclava." Projecting Putin as relatable with youth slang. Promoting family reunions (Moskalkova mediation). Highlighting military families' struggles with housing, potentially to garner sympathy or show government awareness. Crowdfunding appeals for drones (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА) are designed to elicit empathy and material support.
  • Geopolitical Alignment: Emphasizing China's role in a new world order, and RF's deepening ties with non-Western nations. Leveraging regional tensions (Republic of Srpska independence claims) to challenge Western influence. Undermining US influence on EU. Attempting to destabilize Kazakhstan with false claims of FM detention, though TASS later denied this, indicating a complex internal IO landscape. TASS graphic with SCO countries and American eagle.
  • Escalation Threats: Putin's direct statement that "If the conflict in Ukraine does not end peacefully, Russia will resort to weapons" is a clear escalatory threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Basurin o Glavnom explicitly drawing parallels to the Cuban Missile Crisis to imply global conflict.
  • Targeting Civilian Services: Rojin's commentary on the "destruction of Ukrainian energy" and "naval blockade of Odesa" outlines RF's strategic IO intent to cripple Ukrainian infrastructure and economy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Criticism: The МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники video critically assesses "progress in prosthetics," which indicates a rare instance of internal milblogger dissent against the official narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Undermining Ukrainian Allies: Reports that "Coalition of the Resolute" is ready to supply long-range missiles will be framed as escalation, while highlighting internal disagreements within the coalition. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Ukrainian Counter-Propaganda/IO:

  • Rebutting RF Claims: Actively denying RF claims of control in Kupyansk. Documenting RF war crimes (Kherson torture by "Akhmat" unit), particularly the ballistic missile strike on the humanitarian demining mission in Chernihiv.
  • Highlighting RF Losses/Weakness: Reporting estimated RF combat losses. Emphasizing successful UAF air defense interceptions (84/112 drones, all Odesa Shaheds). Highlighting successful deep strikes on RF oil refineries (24.2% refining capacity disabled). Publicizing RF POW captures (9 RF soldiers captured by 4 UAF). Highlighting RF's economic "zeroing out" and "technical stagnation." Publicizing the death of RF Captain Artem Sviridov in Zaporizhzhia (DeepState) to counter RF morale and claims of success. Highlighting the successful UAF strike on the Luhansk oil depot to demonstrate UAF's offensive capabilities and impact on RF logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Publicizing the capture of UAF mortar crew and their resistance (Klishchiivka) to highlight UAF bravery despite difficult circumstances, while potentially downplaying personnel loss narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Promoting Ukrainian Resilience/Strength: Showcasing tactical innovations (ground robotics, EW-resistant FPV drones). Announcing domestic ballistic missile and air defense system development. Emphasizing rapid infrastructure repair (Lozovsky district power, Mykolaiv water). Highlighting strategic adaptations (echeloned counter-Shahed system). Publicizing special forces operations ("rusorez"). Promoting military training (Air Assault Forces adaptation, drone counter-measures, riverine training). Using morale-boosting content (#Воїни_Думки, #Воїни_Слова, gaming console winner for donation, "morning coffee for 'rusorez'"). Highlighting counter-intelligence successes (detention of 5 RF agents). Promoting transparency in mobilization (TCC with bodycams, "Резерв+" app). Showcasing international economic engagement (JERU meeting in Zaporizhzhia). Highlighting continued operations in difficult directions (Synegubov in Kupyansk). UAF IO demonstrating active ground operations, combat effectiveness, and professionalism in the Donbas, likely aimed at boosting morale and public confidence. Poland's unveiling of "PLargonia" is an opportunity for UAF to highlight allied innovation and counter-drone capabilities. UAF is now publicly displaying verified, real-time information on drone operations, demonstrating transparency and effectiveness. NEW: UAF IO highlighting a school event in Cherkasy where students sing an anti-occupier song with profanity reinforces national resilience and anti-RF sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Securing International Support: Actively engaging in high-level diplomatic meetings ("Coalition of the Resolute" with Zelenskyy and Macron) to secure long-term security guarantees, military aid, and parliamentary support. Amplifying reports of UK aid from frozen Russian assets ($1.3 billion). Leveraging Trump's statements to encourage allies. Engaging with US Embassy on POW issues. Amplifying reports of US cutting defense aid to Russia-bordering countries to urge continued support. Highlighting diplomatic engagement with Slovakia (Fico meeting) to show continued European support. Amplifying Denmark's condemnation of the Chernihiv strike to bolster international pressure. Highlighting Germany's plans to provide equipment for four Ukrainian brigades. RBC-Ukraine amplifying reports of ten countries ready to send up to 30,000 soldiers to Ukraine is a key IO effort to demonstrate robust and expanding international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Amplifying the UN's "shocked" reaction to the Chernihiv strike further strengthens the narrative of RF war crimes and rallies international condemnation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Humanitarian Concerns: Reporting civilian casualties and damage from RF strikes. Documenting abuses in occupied territories. Highlighting internal efforts for child recreation. Reporting on a Ukrainian citizen's death in a Lisbon funicular catastrophe, connecting humanitarian issues to national identity.
  • Internal Governance: Promoting anti-corruption efforts (NAZK guide, SBU General Vityuk case). Resuming direct Verkhovna Rada broadcasts for transparency. Managing desertion policies. Addressing internal security challenges (TCC incident in Volyn).
  • Strategic Messaging: Zelenskyy's statements about Putin using China visit as permission to continue war, and the need for parliamentary-level security guarantees. Daily news summaries provide a coherent narrative. Amplifying reports of Russian offensive preparations to galvanize support. UAF General Staff posts providing routine operational updates contribute to transparency and confidence.
  • Counter-Disinformation: Directly addressing and countering RF claims of control in Kupyansk. Using news of potential MiG-29 transfers to counter narratives of RF air superiority.
  • Legal Accountability: Prosecutor General's Office investigating RF torture and robbery in Kherson.
  • Human Rights (Internal): Reporting on a four-year prison sentence for "peaceful preaching" could be a point of concern internally or for external review, potentially affecting UAF's own human rights narrative.
  • NEW: RF IO (Trump/Putin Photo - RBC-Ukraine): RBC-Ukraine reports Trump published a photo with Putin observing US fighter-bombers over Alaska, which can be interpreted as UAF IO amplifying RF disinformation to warn of potential threats or highlight perceived inconsistencies in Western narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

• Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

  1. Sustained Ground Offensive in Donetsk, Kupyansk, and into Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia Oblasts with IO Amplification: RF will consolidate its claimed gains in Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk) and Novoselovka (Zaporizhzhia), conducting probing attacks to exploit any remaining UAF weaknesses and expand the newly established salients, particularly to increase fire pressure on Velikomikhailovka. The main effort will remain focused on achieving full control of Kupyansk and encircling Sieversk, with RF forces pressing hard on all contested axes (e.g., Pokrovskoye-Novoselovka, Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka). Expect continued tactical advances in LNR (Chervonaya Dibrova, Grigorievka). RF IO will aggressively promote these advances as "liberations" and a "decisive battle for Donbas," while fabricating narratives of UAF surrenders and using footage from its successful drone strikes on UAF assets in Kharkiv and the claimed destruction of a Leopard 2 in Zaporizhzhia to justify further offensives. RF will continue to use anti-thermal cloaks for infiltration attempts, increasing the risk of covert penetration. RF will reinforce ground units with crowdfunding and develop new soldier technologies. RF will actively target UAF logistical choke points, as evidenced by the bridge destruction in Krasnoarmeysk direction, to impede resupply to the front lines. RF will continue to actively target and destroy Western-supplied heavy equipment, as demonstrated by the claimed destruction of a Leopard 2 tank on the Zaporizhzhia front, for both tactical advantage and IO. RF will continue its anti-artillery operations, using FPV drones to target high-value UAF systems like the Bohdana in the Kherson direction. RF will continue fierce ground battles in the Pokrovsk direction, burning UAF equipment and infantry, as reported by "Operation Z." RF will continue active battles in the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya direction. RF will also continue to destroy Western-supplied artillery, as confirmed by the destruction of a PzH 2000 in Donbas. Confidence: HIGH
  2. Intensified Multi-Domain Deep Strikes and Air Pressure: RF will continue high-volume drone and missile strikes, targeting critical infrastructure (energy, transport, defense industry, fuel depots) across Ukraine, particularly in Sumy (expect further strikes after power outage), Kharkiv (Iziumskyi district), Chernihiv (Koriukivskyi district), Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava (Myrhorod), and Odesa. RF will likely launch subsequent waves of Shahed attacks from the Black Sea, attempting to overwhelm UAF air defenses. Ballistic missile launches from both northeast (Kursk) and south (Tuzly/Mykolaivka) will continue, with high-speed targets on cities like Sumy, Myrhorod, and Kyiv. Expect the regular use of FAB-3000s against fortified UAF positions. RF will prioritize targeting UAF air defense assets, UAV launch points (as seen in Chernihiv re-framing), and communications nodes (Starlink). RF will continue to use EW to degrade UAF drone effectiveness. RF will continue to claim successful interceptions of UAF drones over its territory (e.g., Volgograd, Rostov Oblast) and potentially engage in further airspace probing along NATO borders, either intentionally or through operational errors, which would be met with immediate RF IO to shift blame. RF will leverage the destruction of Western-supplied armored vehicles (e.g., M113AS4 ALV in Kharkiv, Leopard 2 in Zaporizhzhia) in its IO to undermine confidence in foreign aid and to project its own military superiority. RF will likely respond to the UAF deep strike on the Luhansk oil depot with increased long-range strikes against Ukrainian energy or logistical infrastructure. RF will warn its forces and populace about new UAF drone capabilities, as exemplified by the "new enemy drone" striking the rear. RF will maintain aerial surveillance and potential strike capabilities in northern Ukraine, as indicated by the UAV detected in Chernihiv Oblast. RF will impose temporary flight restrictions in additional border regions (e.g., Penza Oblast) to enhance internal security and air defense. RF will continue targeted UAV and missile strikes in Kharkiv Oblast, as seen in Khotimlya and Lozovenka. RF will intensify counter-UAS operations in the Sumy direction, actively using measures like drone-catching nets. RF will continue to fund and develop long-range fiber optic drones for deep strikes against UAF targets. RF will continue to launch UAVs from the Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk border region, likely for reconnaissance and localized strikes, and will maintain Shahed attacks from the north. Confidence: HIGH
  3. Aggressive, Multi-Faceted Information Warfare Campaign: RF IO will intensify efforts to undermine Western support for Ukraine by amplifying reports of aid cuts (e.g., US defense aid to border countries), highlighting internal divisions within the "Coalition of the Resolute," and leveraging critical statements from Western leaders (e.g., Trump, Meloni, "heated conversation" with Trump). Domestically, RF IO will focus on internal stability and strength (economic resilience, military production, veteran support, cultural events, "main news" summaries, Gref's Ruble outlook, Kazan Helicopter Plant, Grozny construction), while stoking nationalist and anti-immigrant sentiments (Yekaterinburg school narrative). RF will relentlessly demonize Ukrainian leadership and forces (e.g., "children for sabotage," "Narcissist," "savages" in Poland, Alaudinov on future Ukrainian president, anti-semitic undertones in Alex Parker Returns' posts), and actively engage in historical revisionism (Cuban Missile Crisis parallels, Durov's quote) to justify its actions and project a victim narrative. RF IO will likely amplify alleged "crimes of AFU" (Bryansk governor) to justify its own indiscriminate attacks. Crowdfunding appeals for drones will continue to highlight the military's needs and maintain public engagement. RF will continue to monitor and subtly address internal dissent (Alaudinov's "rejecting" those who oppose SMO). RF will actively seek to exploit any signs of discord between European leaders and the US, particularly regarding Trump's statements, to further divide the transatlantic alliance. RF will promote new geopolitical alignments (USA, Russia, China, India alliance) to project global influence and undermine Western unity. RF IO will utilize internal/cultural references (e.g., "Two worlds - two Shapiro") for internal consumption or satire. RF will continue its daily summaries to maintain narrative control for internal audiences. RF IO will leverage the detention of a Polish spy in Belarus to demonize Western intelligence efforts and justify their own aggressive posture. RF IO will also try to minimize the impact of negative internal developments such as war veterans committing crimes. RF IO will leverage the UN's "shocked" reaction to the Chernihiv strike to justify its own narrative of the attack as legitimate (UAV launch point) and to deflect international criticism. RF IO will use the report of ten countries ready to send 30,000 troops to Ukraine as further evidence of Western escalation and direct involvement, feeding anti-Western narratives. RF IO will use the new UAF drone striking civilian infrastructure (bus stop/kiosk) in the rear as a justification for its own targeting of civilian areas and to portray UAF as engaging in similar tactics. RF IO will continue to use narratives of US withdrawal from Russian borders to project RF geopolitical success and undermine Western unity. RF IO will use the Luhansk oil depot strike to portray Ukraine as attacking civilian infrastructure or as reckless, potentially as a justification for further RF strikes. RF IO will continue to project normalcy through civilian events, such as sports results, to manage internal morale. RF IO will amplify reports of a "heated conversation" between Trump and European leaders to highlight Western disunity. RF will continue daily summaries of events by milbloggers like Rybar to control the narrative. RF IO will specifically use the fabricated Trump-Putin "Alaska summit" photo to create a narrative of US-Russia rapprochement and sow division in the Western alliance. RF IO will continue to showcase drone strike footage (e.g., "Rubikon") to project military effectiveness and psychological impact. Confidence: HIGH

• Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

  1. Massive Escalation of Cross-Border Aggression and Hybrid Attacks against NATO States: Following a significant battlefield setback or perceived Western escalation, RF conducts a coordinated, large-scale cyberattack against critical infrastructure (energy, telecommunications, financial systems) in a NATO frontline state (e.g., Poland, Baltic states), combined with a massed, conventional deep strike (missiles and drones) targeting military installations and command centers in the same or adjacent NATO states. This kinetic attack would be augmented by intentional and repeated incursions of combat aircraft and armed drones into NATO airspace, testing Article 5 and aiming to provoke a kinetic response while creating confusion and sowing doubt about NATO's resolve and unity. Simultaneously, RF special forces conduct overt and covert sabotage operations against critical infrastructure or military targets within NATO countries. This would be accompanied by an aggressive global IO campaign blaming NATO for escalating the conflict, potentially using fabricated evidence of NATO preparations for invasion or direct military involvement in Ukraine. The intent would be to fracture NATO, deter further support for Ukraine, or compel NATO to negotiate on RF terms. The Cuban Missile Crisis IO serves as a stark warning of this potential. The destruction of a bridge on the Krasnoarmeysk direction could be a precursor to clearing the way for ground advances, by isolating UAF forces on the opposite side. The heightened RF IO around "decisive battle" and Alaudinov's comments on future Ukrainian leadership suggest a strategic intent that could underpin such an MDCOA. The reported readiness of ten countries to send up to 30,000 soldiers to Ukraine could be interpreted by RF as a significant escalation warranting such an MDCOA, as it represents a direct increase in foreign military presence within Ukraine. RF IO regarding US withdrawal from Russian borders and the detention of a Polish spy in Belarus provides justification for increasing aggressive posture against NATO states. The recent fabricated Trump-Putin "Alaska summit" photo is a pre-positioning IO effort to frame any future US-Russia de-escalation as a sign of RF strength or a betrayal of Ukraine, or to justify an escalatory action by blaming internal Western divisions. Confidence: MEDIUM
  2. Targeted Chemical/Biological Attack and Cyber-Enabled Destruction of Ukraine's Emerging DIB: RF launches a limited, targeted chemical or biological agent attack (e.g., a non-lethal but highly disruptive agent against a population center or a military supply hub, possibly disguised as an industrial accident or false flag) to sow panic and disorder. This is precisely coordinated with a sophisticated, multi-vector cyberattack to disrupt Ukraine's nascent defense industrial base (DIB), particularly the announced FP-7/FP-9 ballistic missile and air defense development facilities and their supply chains. The cyberattack would aim to erase design data, cripple production capabilities, and disrupt distribution networks. This would be immediately followed by precision conventional strikes on remaining DIB infrastructure, exploiting the chaos caused by the hybrid attack. RF IO would amplify narratives of Ukrainian "drug labs" or "unsafe facilities" to justify the attack, while promoting disinformation to external audiences to deflect blame and undermine international support. Confidence: LOW

• Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

  • Immediate (0-24 hours): RF will likely launch a follow-on wave of drones and/or missiles within the next 24 hours, focusing on critical infrastructure, particularly in Sumy and Kharkiv, and potentially new targets in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAV activity on the Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk border and Shahed attacks from the north indicate these threats are active now. UAF will prioritize rapid deployment of reserves to the Novoselivka-Velikomikhailovka axis and attempt to contain the RF breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia. NATO/Poland will be at a heightened state of alert due to the airspace violation, a critical window for de-escalation or further escalation. The loss of Captain Sviridov may necessitate immediate leadership adjustments in the 210th OSHP. UAF will likely intensify deep strikes against RF logistical targets, following the success at the Luhansk oil depot. Negotiations for the release of the UAF mortar crew in Klishchiivka will be critical. The implications of 10 countries sending 30,000 troops will be a major discussion point for all parties. UAF will continue to implement and expand its echeloned anti-Shahed system. UAF will continue to leverage its online drone operations scoreboard for public transparency and morale. The confirmed destruction of a PzH 2000 in Donbas requires immediate BDA and assessment of its impact on UAF capabilities.
  • Short-Term (24-72 hours): RF will attempt to consolidate gains in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia Oblasts and intensify ground assaults in Kupyansk/Sieversk. UAF will likely launch significant counter-battery and deep strikes against RF assets supporting these new offensives, and seek to interdict RF logistics on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. The impact of the US defense aid cuts (if confirmed as reported by TASS/RBC-Ukraine) could begin to influence Western decision-making on future support packages. The meeting between Fico and Zelenskyy is a key diplomatic event within this window. Germany's commitment of equipment for four Ukrainian brigades will begin to be factored into UAF defensive planning. RF IO will continue to try and reframe the Chernihiv strike and counter the narrative of foreign troop contributions, specifically using the fabricated Trump-Putin photo and amplifying perceived Western disunity.
  • Mid-Term (1-2 weeks): RF's "largest regrouping since 2022" suggests preparation for a sustained, large-scale offensive in the Donbas and potentially further westward. The operational success (or failure) of the Novoselivka push will significantly inform RF's next phase. UAF's ability to hold and counter in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia will be critical. The "Coalition of the Resolute" will finalize security guarantees, a key decision point for long-term UAF capabilities.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize ISR and Counter-Offensive Planning for Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia Axis: Immediately re-task all available ISR assets to precisely map RF force disposition, composition, and intent along the new Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia axis (Novoselivka-Velikomikhailovka). Develop and execute rapid counter-offensive plans to stabilize the front, interdict RF reinforcements, and deny consolidation of gains.
   • Action: Surge ISR (UAV, IMINT, SIGINT) to map RF unit locations, strength, and logistics in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Focus specifically on the UAV activity reported on the border of these two oblasts.
   • Action: Develop and pre-position dynamic targeting packages for high-value RF targets (C2, logistics, heavy armor, including newly identified Leopard 2 kill-sites and confirmed PzH 2000 kill-site) to be delivered by long-range precision fires immediately upon target confirmation.
   • Action: Prepare and rapidly deploy mobile reserves to reinforce threatened sectors along the new axis, prioritizing anti-armor and counter-infiltration capabilities.
   • Action: Integrate EW-resistant FPV drones, produced domestically or supplied by allies, into defensive and offensive operations along this axis to counter RF advances.
   • Action: Immediately review and bolster UAF tank and anti-armor defenses in the Zaporizhzhia direction following the Leopard 2 loss and heavy artillery defenses following the PzH 2000 loss.
2. Intensify Counter-UAS and Air Defense Modernization: Accelerate the implementation of Syrsky's echeloned counter-Shahed system. Prioritize the procurement and deployment of modern air defense systems from Western partners (e.g., Nordic/Baltic countries, Germany) to protect critical infrastructure and population centers, particularly in high-threat areas like Sumy, Kharkiv, and the newly threatened Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
   • Action: Push for expedited delivery of promised air defense assets, including those from Germany.
   • Action: Allocate immediate resources for the research, development, and mass production of indigenous counter-UAS technologies, including kinetic and non-kinetic systems, potentially incorporating lessons from Polish "PLargonia" development, and specifically addressing the extended range capabilities highlighted by RF's fiber optic drone fundraising. Prioritize defenses against Shahed attacks from the north.
   • Action: Enhance passive air defense measures around critical infrastructure (camouflage, hardening, redundancy).
   • Action: Immediately disseminate intelligence on the "new enemy drone" identified by RF, assessing its capabilities and developing countermeasures.
3. Elevate Threat Warning and Protection for Humanitarian/NGO Personnel: Reissue and enforce a high-priority threat warning to all humanitarian organizations and NGOs operating in Ukraine, emphasizing the confirmed RF intent to target such missions (e.g., Chernihiv).
   • Action: Facilitate rapid review and enhancement of OPSEC, movement protocols, and protective measures for all humanitarian operations.
   • Action: Engage international partners (especially Denmark and the UN, following their condemnation) to publicly condemn RF targeting of humanitarian missions and demand adherence to international humanitarian law.
4. Strategic Diplomatic Engagement to Counter RF IO on Western Support: Actively monitor and counter RF IO narratives regarding Western disunity and aid reductions (e.g., US defense aid to border countries). Proactively communicate the reality of continued, robust international support to maintain domestic and international confidence.
   • Action: Provide daily, transparent updates on all international military and financial aid received, emphasizing its impact on the battlefield. This can be supported by leveraging the new UAF Online Drone Operations Board for public information on tactical successes.
   • Action: Engage Western diplomatic channels to directly counter RF narratives about divisions and ineffectiveness within the "Coalition of the Resolute," particularly concerning Trump's statements, Witkoff's early departure, and RF's new "USA, Russia, China, India alliance" narrative. Specifically address and debunk the fabricated Trump-Putin "Alaska summit" photo and Operation Z's amplification of the Bild report.
   • Action: Highlight RF's internal economic challenges (e.g., Ruble outlook) and the impact of sanctions to counter RF's narratives of resilience.
   • Action: Prepare specific counter-IO in response to RF's exploitation of Western equipment losses (e.g., Leopard 2, PzH 2000) by emphasizing the overall effectiveness and continued supply of Western aid.
   • Action: Leverage condemnation from allies (e.g., Denmark, UN) to rally further international support and funding.
   • Action: Proactively shape the narrative around the reported commitment of 30,000 foreign troops, emphasizing international solidarity and adherence to international law, while preparing for RF counter-IO.
5. Targeted Counter-Logistics Operations on Krasnoarmeysk and Eastern Axis: Following the claimed destruction of the bridge in Krasnoarmeysk and the successful strike on the Luhansk oil depot, immediately assess the impact on UAF and RF logistics. If confirmed as RF action, develop and execute targeted counter-logistics operations to deny RF the ability to similarly disrupt UAF supply lines, and to exploit RF logistical weaknesses.
   • Action: Conduct rapid BDA on the destroyed bridge to confirm RF responsibility and assess the degree of impact.
   • Action: Prioritize intelligence collection on RF bridge-building/repair capabilities and alternative logistical routes in the Krasnoarmeysk direction.
   • Action: Identify and target RF engineering units, equipment, and materials deployed for such sabotage or repair operations.
   • Action: Exploit the Luhansk oil depot strike by continuing to target RF fuel and ammunition depots, particularly those supporting the new Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia axis.
6. Develop Counter-Narratives to RF Dehumanization Campaigns: Actively and consistently counter RF propaganda that attempts to dehumanize Ukrainian forces or its international partners (e.g., "children for sabotage," "Colombian mercenaries," "Narcissist" narratives).
   • Action: Proactively release verified information and human interest stories that highlight the professionalism and dedication of Ukrainian servicemen and the ethical standards of its allies. Utilize the Cherkasy school incident as an example of popular resistance and national pride.
   • Action: Work with international human rights organizations to expose and condemn RF's use of inflammatory and dehumanizing language, including the anti-semitic undertones in Alex Parker Returns' IO.
   • Action: Address RF's internal IO (e.g., Alaudinov's statements) that attempt to shape Ukraine's future political landscape, by reaffirming Ukraine's sovereignty and self-determination.
   • Action: Actively promote stories of UAF heroism and resilience, such as the mortar crew's resistance in Klishchiivka, to counter RF claims and boost morale.

//END REPORT//