Situation Report

SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - 041730Z SEP 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: RF deep strikes continue to target Ukraine's defense industry and railway infrastructure, with a new claimed strategic strike against a UAV/Artillery electronics enterprise in Khmelnytskyi. Civilian targeting remains high, with confirmed deadly artillery/FPV drone strikes on Kostiantynivka (including a hospital and nearby village, resulting in 2 fatalities in Illinivka), sustained attacks on the Nikopol region (Nikopol, Marhanetska, Myrivska, Pokrovska, Chervonohryhorivska communities), and Kharkiv Oblast, and new casualties in Zaporizhzhia (total 4 wounded), Orikhiv (2 wounded), and Druzhkivka (7 wounded), as well as two killed and two wounded in Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast. Ballistic missile threats are active, with new alerts for Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, and Sumy, including high-speed targets on Kyiv. A ballistic missile strike in Chernihiv Oblast specifically targeted employees of a humanitarian demining mission, resulting in one fatality and two wounded, which RF now claims was a UAF UAV launch point destroyed by an Iskander. Ground operations are intensely focused on Sieversk and Kupyansk. RF continues to claim significant gains and even UAF surrenders in Kupyansk, while UAF actively denies these claims and demonstrates successful counter-actions; DeepState confirms RF presence and infiltration attempts, though UAF maintains RF lacks "firm control" over the city center. RF milblogger claims report children being used for sabotage by Ukraine, a significant and dangerous escalation of IO targeting. RF claims "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (with video evidence from "Vostok" Group of Forces and Colonelcassad) and Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (MoD RF claim via TASS and Voenkor Kotenok). Colonelcassad claims "Vostok" Group of Forces has "completely liberated" DNR territory and is now advancing into Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. TASS reports Saldo's claim of RF maintaining control over Dnipro delta islands in Kherson Oblast. RF also claims new assaults on Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), supported by UAV footage. RF also claims to have neutralized a Bradley IFV and a field ammunition depot with a Fagot ATGM, and to have detained an SBU agent in Kherson Oblast engaged in espionage. UAF reports the destruction of an S-300V SAM system in the Zaporizhzhia direction. UAF demonstrates tactical innovation with ground robotic complexes and EW-resistant FPV drones, secures additional air defense from Nordic/Baltic countries, and maintains significant domestic artillery/drone production. Ukrainian company Fire Point announces development of ballistic missiles (FP-7, FP-9) and air defense systems. Diplomatic and information warfare efforts continue, with UAF securing further Western support and RF attempting to sow discord and amplify anti-Western narratives. Putin concluded his China visit, making several statements regarding Ukraine, NATO, and economic cooperation with China, projecting a dual message of "peace" vs. "military solution." RF is actively conducting artillery strikes in the Kharkiv direction, with confirmed casualties. NATO ISR aircraft activity is reported near Kaliningrad/Belarus border, indicating heightened regional vigilance. European leaders, including Zelenskyy and Macron, are scheduled for a call with Trump, highlighting continued high-level diplomatic engagement. RF IO is heavily pushing narratives of Ukrainian corruption. New RF drone group activity in Chernihiv region, southwestern direction. UAF has successfully downed a "Gerbera with a rear-view camera" drone. UAF successfully destroyed RF D-20 artillery and a 2S3 self-propelled howitzer with drone strikes. New Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast. UAF special forces (Shybenyk Squad, 2nd Assault Company, Kraken) are conducting operations in Sumy Oblast. RF continues to use BM-21 Grad MLRS. Ukraine launches its largest port investment project, indicating economic resilience and long-term planning. Ukrainian forces report Russians are using anti-thermal imaging cloaks for infiltration tactics. RF IO emphasizes Putin's conditional willingness to meet Zelenskyy in Moscow, contrasting with Zelenskyy's statements on Ukraine's "Korean Scenario" and the need for US security guarantees. RF IO also focuses on internal control in Belgorod concerning UAV attack information. UAF claims significant destruction of RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reports a power outage in Krasnodar Krai due to a UAV strike. RF IO is leveraging discussion of a "frozen conflict" for Ukraine. RF IO is pushing a narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. RF drones originating from Donetsk Oblast are now reported on course for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF sources continue to claim significant advances in Kupyansk, with UAF sources also confirming RF infiltration and presence, albeit noting a lack of "firm control" over the city center, and indicating fragmented UAF defense. RF UAV group detected in Southern Sumy Oblast, moving west. RF UAVs on course for Poltava Oblast. Several groups of RF UAVs detected in northern Kharkiv Oblast (Chuhuiv Raion). RF military transport aircraft confirmed arriving in North Korea, with coffins draped in North Korean flags visible, suggesting potential military assistance or return of personnel. Explosion heard in Chuhuiv community, Kharkiv Oblast. RF reports five Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Rostov Oblast. New groups of RF UAVs are inbound from the Black Sea towards Odesa/Fontanka. The air raid alert for Odesa and Chornomorsk has been lifted following successful UAF interception of all incoming Shahed UAVs. The Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) continues in Vladivostok. RF is actively promoting a rise in military pensions and a continued increase in the 2026 budget, signaling long-term commitment to military personnel welfare. RF is also discussing financing for new energy generation in the Far East. RF IO is now actively countering claims of Western support for Ukraine, with Maria Zakharova stating that Ukraine's security guarantees are "guarantees of danger" for Europe. Colonelcassad reports a FAB-3000 strike on a UAF Forward Operating Base (FOB). Russian milbloggers "Two Majors" and "Parisan56rus" are providing footage from the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction. Russian milblogger "Operation Z" (via Russkaya Vesna) released a video on "Electronic Warfare (EW) strike" on the Zaporizhzhia front. UAF General Staff provides updated estimated RF combat losses. UAF reports two UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF sources claim UAF forces are mining houses on Karantynny Island (Kherson). RF Ministry of Defense claims 46 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions and the Black Sea. UK has directed over $1 billion from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. Aftermath of drone attack on Odesa: fire in a warehouse, no casualties. Trump states that Putin and Zelenskyy are not yet ready for a peace agreement. RF Ministry of Defense reports an additional four UAVs shot down over Volgograd Oblast. Colonelcassad posts drone footage of high-precision strikes on UAF trench positions by operators of the 5th Army Group "Vostok." Rybar provides a map-based analysis video of RF offensive operations in the Shcherbinovka area (between August 12-31, 2025). TASS reports RF military advances near Chervonaya Dibrova (LNR) and control of 5 hectares of forest near Grigorievka (DNR). Zvиздец Мангусту provides a brief summary from various directions and considerations regarding events on the Dobropillya direction, specifically mentioning the Sieversk (Slavyansk) direction and potential regrouping for the Pokrovsk assault. ASTRA reports China has not confirmed Putin's statements about "Power of Siberia-2." Operatsiya Z (Russkaya Vesna) reports RF air defense shot down 46 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. Два майора posts a video (18+) with "18th Combined Arms Army" insignia, showing an aerial strike on a small boat with personnel in water. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of enemy UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving southwest. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video claiming that drones attacked 17 Russian oil refineries in August. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posts a photo message stating "84 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed." ASTRA reports that Ukraine's Air Force states Russia attacked with 112 UAVs overnight, and UAF neutralized 84 of them. Шеф Hayabusa posts photos of damage in Sloviansk and Odesa after night attacks. RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia is preparing a new offensive against Ukraine, citing Bloomberg. UAF General Staff reports repelling 5 RF army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction.

• NEW DEVELOPMENTS (041600Z - 041730Z SEP 25):

  • RF Deep Strikes / IO: TASS reports U.S. will cut defense aid for Russia-bordering countries, a likely RF IO amplification of a Western media report. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF IO (Internal/Societal): Alex Parker Returns posts several photo messages (all identical content) with a derogatory caption expressing alarm about changing demographics in a Yekaterinburg school, with a teacher stating no Russian children are in her fourth grade class, and many mothers wearing hijabs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgement: This is a clear RF IO effort to foment internal social tensions, nationalist sentiment, and anti-immigrant narratives, and likely to implicitly critique internal policies or demographic trends. It uses highly charged language and imagery.
  • RF IO (Historical Revisionism/Threat Projection): Басурин о главном posts two identical photo messages (with a collage of historical photos) referencing the Cuban Missile Crisis (Sep 4, 1962), and a caption stating Kennedy warned Castro, and Moscow stated US intervention would lead to global conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgement: This is a significant RF IO effort to draw historical parallels, portraying current tensions as a repeat of a standoff between superpowers, framing Russia's actions as a response to perceived US aggression, and implicitly threatening nuclear escalation.
  • RF Cross-Border Attacks (Statement): AV БогомаZ (Bryansk governor) posts a text message "Another vile crime of the Armed Forces of Ukraine." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgement: This is an immediate RF IO response to blame Ukraine for alleged cross-border attacks, likely to justify RF's own actions or rally internal support.
  • RF IO (Daily News Summary): Военкор Котенок posts two identical photo messages with the caption "Main news today (04.09.2025)." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgement: This is a routine RF milblogger IO effort to provide curated daily news, shaping the narrative for its audience.
  • UAF IO (Western Support Narrative): РБК-Україна posts two identical photo messages with a caption stating the U.S. will cut defense programs worth hundreds of millions of dollars for European countries bordering Russia, citing Financial Times. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgement: This is UAF IO amplifying a Western media report that highlights potential cuts in US security assistance to countries bordering RF, aiming to inform its audience and possibly to exert pressure on Western allies to maintain or increase support.
  • RF DIB (Industrial Capacity): Fighterbomber posts two identical video messages celebrating the 85th anniversary of the Kazan Helicopter Plant, showcasing helicopter production and various models (including rescue/transport/medical). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgement: This is an RF IO effort to project industrial strength, self-sufficiency, and advanced technological capabilities in its defense industry, likely for internal morale and to counter narratives of sanctions impact.
  • UAF Counter-UAS Strategy: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Syrsky is creating an echeloned system to counter enemy "Shaheds." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgement: This is a significant UAF development, indicating a strategic adaptation to RF's persistent drone threats, aiming to enhance air defense effectiveness beyond current capabilities.
  • RF Tactical Claims (Kharkiv Direction): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts two photo messages and two video messages with the caption "Kharkiv direction." The videos appear to be drone footage documenting destruction of Ukrainian mortar positions and military vehicles (truck, tractor), damaged buildings, and a downed 'Baba-Yaga' drone. One photo shows a map with explosion icons near Luk'yantsi and Lyptsi. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgement: This is RF IO and tactical reporting, claiming successful strikes against UAF assets in the Kharkiv direction, demonstrating continued ground pressure and drone use, and aiming to demoralize UAF forces and boost RF morale.
  • RF Drone Operations (Video): MoD Russia posts two identical video messages titled "Russian drone pilots lose no time," showcasing FPV drone footage identifying and targeting armored vehicles (BTRs), communication systems (antennas), and other infrastructure, with explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgement: This is an RF IO effort to project battlefield dominance through drone technology, highlighting their ISR and precision strike capabilities, and implying continuous, effective drone operations.
  • RF IO (Civilian Tech Promotion): Новости Москвы posts two identical photo messages promoting pre-orders for new Huawei Pura 80 smartphones with "Alice" (voice assistant) support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgement: This is a civilian news item used as RF IO to project normalcy, economic cooperation with China, and access to modern technology, diverting attention from the conflict.
  • RF Chernihiv Strike Re-frame (Video): Colonelcassad posts two identical video messages with the caption "Footage of the destruction of a long-range AFU UAV preparation and launch point in Chernihiv Oblast," showing an aerial strike on multiple white vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgement: This is a direct RF IO effort to re-frame the confirmed ballistic missile strike on the humanitarian demining mission (which used white vehicles) as a legitimate military strike against a UAF drone launch point, aiming to deflect accusations of war crimes and justify the attack.
  • UAF Tactical Video (Sieversk Direction): STERNENKO posts two identical video messages with the caption "It's hot in the Sieversk direction. Apachi unit destroys the enemy attacking." The video shows a drone strike on a trench/dugout ("Cannon in the dugout"), a motorcycle, and a building, with thermal imaging afterwards. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgement: This is UAF IO demonstrating active and successful defense operations in the Sieversk direction, highlighting the effectiveness of their drone units ("Apachi") against RF assaults and boosting morale.
  • RF UAV Threat (Sumy/Kharkiv): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast (Shostkinsky and Konotopsky districts) and Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgement: This indicates continued RF aerial reconnaissance and strike activity in these northern regions, consistent with a strategy of pressure and targeting.
  • UAF IO (MiG-29 Acquisition Narrative): РБК-Україна posts two identical photo messages with the caption "Ukraine could have received MiG-29s from Azerbaijan, - TWZ." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgement: This is UAF IO amplifying a Western media report (The War Zone) regarding potential military aid, aiming to project increased air force capabilities and broader international support, even if unconfirmed by official Azerbaijani sources.
  • RF IO (Analyst Commentary): Басурин о главном posts a text message: "Public figure, political scientist Eduard Basurin specially for SIGNAL." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgement: This indicates a forthcoming piece of analytical or opinion content from a pro-RF figure, used to shape narrative and provide "expert" commentary.
  • RF IO (Societal/Migration Tensions): Alex Parker Returns posts two identical video messages with the caption "In Poland, an indispensable specialist from Ukraine, a Khokhol called an indispensable specialist from Central Asia a Churka. In response, the Churka called the Khokhol a Rashist for some reason. Savages." The video depicts a heated verbal exchange between two individuals, identified as a taxi driver (speaking Russian) and another, in an urban setting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgement: This is a strong RF IO effort to sow discord, highlight inter-ethnic tensions within migrant communities in Europe, and portray both Ukrainians and Central Asians (using derogatory terms) as "savages," ultimately undermining the perception of Ukrainian integration and Western values, while diverting attention from RF actions.
  • UAF IO (Western Funding Cuts): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts two identical photo messages stating the U.S. will cut defense program funding for European countries bordering Russia, citing FT. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgement: Similar to RBC-Ukraine, this is UAF IO amplifying reports of potential Western support cuts, likely to stress the need for continued aid and inform the public about evolving international dynamics.
  • RF Crowdfunding/IO (Drones): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts two identical photo messages with the caption "Marathon 'Hundreds'" (referencing drones) showing burnt drones, and a follow-up message stating "For those who care - don't stand aside. The collection is sadly going poorly." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgement: This is RF milblogger IO attempting to galvanize public support and crowdfunding for drones, likely indicating a persistent need for UAVs despite RF production claims, and possibly suggesting a high attrition rate for current drones. The image of burnt drones is likely meant to evoke sympathy and urgency.
  • RF UAV Threat (Sumy/Kharkiv): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast (Romensky district) and Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkiv district). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgement: Continued RF aerial threats to northern Ukrainian oblasts, indicating persistent reconnaissance and potential strike operations.
  • RF Air Defense Claims: TASS reports RF MOD claims shooting down two Ukrainian drones over Rostov and Belgorod Oblasts, and two over the Black Sea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgement: This is RF IO to demonstrate active air defense capabilities against perceived UAF cross-border threats and to project control over its territory and maritime approaches.
  • RF IO (Internal Reflection): Рыбарь posts a text message: "The SMO changed a lot." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgement: This is an RF milblogger's reflective statement, possibly implying a significant and lasting impact of the conflict on Russian society or military, which could be leveraged for various IO narratives.
  • RF IO (Western Discontent): Alex Parker Returns posts two identical photo messages with the caption "Pavlo is very offended by the West, very. What happened?" (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgement: This is RF IO attempting to highlight perceived discontent or disagreements among Ukrainian figures or with Western partners, aiming to sow distrust and undermine UAF's international relationships.
  • UAF War Crime Documentation: ASTRA posts two identical video messages with the caption "Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office investigates torture and robbery by 'Akhmat' in occupied Kherson in 2022," detailing alleged abuses by Russian soldiers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgement: This is UAF IO and official reporting to document alleged RF war crimes, aiming to secure justice, rally international support, and counter RF narratives of a "liberation" and "humanitarian" operation.
  • RF IO (Historical Literacy): Kotsnews posts two identical photo messages with a caption stating 84% of respondents couldn't name a hero of the Soviet-Japanese War, urging them to study history. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgement: This is RF IO engaging in historical education/revisionism, likely to promote specific historical narratives, enhance national identity, and possibly draw parallels to current conflicts.
  • RF IO (Military Recruitment/Morale): WarGonzo posts a text message: "Exclusive. The DPR team is leading the score: 'Somali,' 'Piatnashka,' and legendary militiamen." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Judgement: This is RF milblogger IO aiming to boost morale, glorify specific units (e.g., "Somali" battalion), and promote a narrative of success and heroism among proxy forces, potentially for recruitment or to legitimize their actions.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Black Sea Oil Spill: Remains valid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Formaldehyde Levels (Kalush): Fire in Kalush from night attack now extinguished, suggests environmental hazard mitigated for now, but underlying risk remains. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
• Russian Temperature Forecast: Above-normal temperatures are expected across most of Russia this and next week. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Mine Collapse (Yakutia): One fatality from the Yakutia mine collapse. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Night Attack Aftermath (Odesa/Sloviansk/Kharkiv/Druzhkivka): Aftermath footage shows damaged buildings (warehouse, truck) in Odesa, photos of damage in Sloviansk and Kharkiv, and a Nova Poshta branch in Druzhkivka, likely from fire or explosion, confirming localized air quality degradation and structural damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kryvyi Rih Status: Situation reported as "controlled," suggesting no immediate environmental threat from military action. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Rostov Oblast (Krasny Sulin): Night vision footage indicates operations during low visibility conditions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Odesa: Explosions and smoke indicate localized air quality degradation. New Shahed threat from Black Sea, implying potential for further air quality degradation and structural damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Incendiary Use (LNR): Claims of UAF using incendiary mixtures to set fires in LNR, indicating potential for localized environmental impact and smoke plumes affecting visibility. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
• Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk): Smoke plume from an explosion/impact in a forested area, indicating localized environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Pokrovsk Direction: Explosions and smoke from burning structures (Mavic drone operator's shelter) confirm localized environmental degradation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: ZALA Lancet strike shows a significant explosion and smoke plume, indicating localized air quality degradation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Bryansk Border Region: Aerial strikes with explosions and smoke plumes, indicating localized environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk) "Liberation" (RF claims): Widespread damage, explosions, and smoke, indicating a high-intensity combat zone with significant environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Zaporizhzhia City: Significant damage to civilian buildings, with broken windows and debris, indicating localized structural damage and air quality degradation from explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kupyansk: Helicopter strike on a UAV command post shows an explosion and smoke plume, indicating localized air quality degradation and structural damage. Destruction of Lozovaya district substation in Kupyansk direction confirms infrastructure damage and associated environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka Direction: Artillery strikes, damaged buildings, and smoke plumes, indicating ongoing, high-intensity combat with localized environmental impact and structural damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Krasnodar Krai and Rostov Oblast: Distant explosions and fire with smoke, confirming localized environmental impact in RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Druzhkivka: Shelling caused 7 wounded, indicating localized structural damage and air quality degradation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kozacha Lopan: "Unknown device" explosion caused two killed and two wounded, confirming localized structural damage and potential environmental hazards from munitions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Vladivostok (Russky Island): Heavy fog affecting visibility, which could hinder transportation and air operations for EEF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Sumy: Without electricity due to a Russian army strike on critical infrastructure, confirming localized environmental impact (power outages) and potential for broader disruption of essential services. NEW: Another explosion in Sumy, indicating continued localized environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• FPV Drone Strike (Motorcyclist): Flash and smoke from a drone impact, indicating localized environmental impact from the explosion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Wooded Area Drone Strike (RF): Explosion and significant smoke, indicating localized environmental degradation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• PzH 2000 Destruction: Explosion and smoke, confirming localized environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Zaporizhzhia Damage Assessment: Debris, shattered windows, and damaged balconies, indicating significant localized structural damage and air quality degradation due to the drone attack. Municipal cleanup and repairs are underway. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Water Shortages in Occupied Donetsk: Civilians queuing for water and "water marauders" stealing, indicating severe disruption to essential services and potential public health concerns due to infrastructure damage or mismanagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Novoselovka (Dnipropetrovsk) "Liberation" (TASS video): Explosions and smoke plumes from impact sites in a rural landscape, indicative of active military engagements and localized environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF Strike on RF Tank/Artillery/Robotic Complex (Donetsk): Explosions and smoke from direct hits on targets in Donetsk Oblast, indicating localized environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Missile Strike on Civilian Settlement (Chernihiv): Large, rapidly expanding smoke plume from an explosion consistent with a missile strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Air/Drone Strike on UAF Buggy: Significant explosion and fire after an apparent drone strike, indicating localized environmental impact and potential for secondary explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Bombing of Hospital/Village (Kostiantynivka): Damage to a hospital and nearby village from aerial bombs, confirming localized structural damage and potential air quality issues from explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Selydove (Occupied): Flames and thick black smoke from a damaged apartment building indicate a significant fire, likely from a UAF strike on an RF ammo depot. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Damaged Bridge/Urban Strike (Zaporizhzhia Front): RF milblogger video shows a damaged bridge with structural compromise and an urban settlement with smoke plumes, indicating significant environmental and structural damage near Stepnohirsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Nikopol Region: Photo messages show damage to civilian structures from FPV drones and artillery, confirming localized environmental impact and structural damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Demining Technology (RF): The "Courier" robotic demining platform demonstrates RF's efforts to mitigate environmental hazards from mines, though its deployment also implies the ongoing presence of minefields. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Internal Incident (Military Serviceman's House Fire): The fire at a military serviceman's house (car set alight) indicates a localized fire incident with potential air quality degradation and property damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Chernihiv Casualties: The number of wounded from the Chernihiv missile strike increased to 5. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• NEW: Kharkiv Direction: Map with explosion icons near Luk'yantsi and Lyptsi indicates localized environmental impact from active combat operations. Drone footage showing damaged buildings and terrain in Kharkiv direction further confirms this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• NEW: Sieversk Direction: Drone footage showing a building engulfed in an explosion, and thermal imaging indicating lingering heat, confirms localized environmental impact from UAF drone strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF:

  • Air/Missile Assets: Actively employing long-range precision air-launched weapons (КАБ on Donetsk, Sumy, and now Kharkiv Oblast), attack UAVs (Lancet on UAF radar, FPV drones on checkpoint, FPV drone strike on vehicle near Sumy border, FPV drone strike on motorcyclist in Pokrovsk direction), tactical aviation (southeast and northeast directions), and conducting drone strikes (Kharkiv direction, Nikopol region, Kharkiv city, Odesa warehouse fire). Reports strikes on UAF UAV/artillery electronics in Khmelnytskyi. Claims of strikes on "Motor" aircraft repair plant in Lutsk and "Donmashstroy" in Kramatorsk. Artillery (Msta-S, BM-21 Grad MLRS) actively employed in Kharkiv direction. Claims of strike on UAF UAV operator location in Kupyansk-Uzlovoy. RF animated strike scheme details alleged widespread drone strikes across multiple regions. Claims of Kalibr/Geran strikes on "Spetsoboronmash" plant near Kyiv Oblast border. UAV group in Chernihiv region moving southwest. Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast (including Pokrovsky district, Belozerske/Dobropillya). UAV group from Kharkiv to Donetsk Oblast. UAV group from Donetsk to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAV group in Southern Sumy Oblast, moving west. RF UAVs on course for Poltava Oblast. Several groups of RF UAVs detected in northern Kharkiv Oblast (Chuhuiv Raion). Reports a power outage in Krasnodar Krai due to a UAV strike. Groups of RF UAVs inbound from the Black Sea towards Odesa/Fontanka (approx. 14 Shaheds) were successfully intercepted. RF claims five Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Rostov Oblast. "Rubikon" air defense combat groups operating various drones (Leleka-100, RQ-35 Heidrun, Vector, VT-260) over Ukrainian fields. New claim of a successful ЛМУР strike on a UAF UAV launch point for the 22nd Motorized Brigade. A new RF UAV group is currently active in northern Sumy Oblast, heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. Ballistic missile threat from the northeast. High-speed target detected on Sumy. UAF Air Force reports КАБ launches towards Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Colonelcassad reports a FAB-3000 strike on a UAF PVD (Forward Operating Base). "Operation Z" video highlights RF Electronic Warfare (EW) capabilities against UAF drones, likely to protect ground forces, specifically on the Zaporizhzhia front. RF Ministry of Defense claims 46 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions and the Black Sea. Rybar's "Eyes on Orbit" videos show at least two distinct multi-stage rocket/missile launches at night from coastal/urban areas. The additional four UAVs shot down over Volgograd Oblast demonstrate RF's active air defense capability against perceived UAF cross-border threats. Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) claims RF air defense shot down 46 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. Два майора posts a video (18+) with "18th Combined Arms Army" insignia, showing an aerial strike on a small boat with personnel in water. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a new group of enemy UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving southwest. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video claiming that drones attacked 17 Russian oil refineries in August. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posts a photo message stating "84 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed." ASTRA reports that Ukraine's Air Force states Russia attacked with 112 UAVs overnight, and UAF neutralized 84 of them. Шеф Hayabusa posts photos of damage in Sloviansk and Odesa after night attacks. RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia is preparing a new offensive against Ukraine, citing Bloomberg. UAF General Staff reports repelling 5 RF army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message about the "Konstantinovsky direction." Воин DV posts a video showing "harsh hits on enemy manpower trying to escape, but unsuccessfully," depicting drone footage of strikes on fortified positions and personnel. Kotsnews posts a video showcasing the "Ant" exoskeleton vest designed to reduce fatigue and enhance mobility for soldiers. Два майора posts a video urging "Let's activate! Over the past day, 669 people participated in the collection for assault troops of the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment." Два майора posts video of UAV operator training from the Konstantinovsky direction, specifically naming the 33rd Motorized Rifle Berlin-Don Cossack Regiment, 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division. MoD Russia releases video claiming a Fagot ATGM of the Zapad Group of Forces neutralized a Bradley IFV, a field ammunition depot, and AFU manpower. Mash на Донбассе posts a video claiming the Russian army began assaulting Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, showing UAV footage of strikes on a damaged building and surrounding area with military personnel. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF is again using incendiary mixtures to set fires in LNR. Colonelcassad posts a video showing the alleged capture of a Ukrainian DRG in Bryansk Oblast, whose task was railway sabotage. Воин DV posts a video claiming scouts from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade located a camouflaged enemy vehicle in the forests west of Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). Воин DV (RF milblogger, Vostok Group of Forces) claims the "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, supported by video showing artillery strikes, damage, RF flags, and soldiers. Два майора reports the "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by the "Vostok" Group of Forces, claiming it's the sixth in the region. ТАСС reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have "liberated" Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Сливочный каприз posts video from the Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka direction (04.09.25) showing artillery strikes, damaged buildings, and both Ukrainian and Russian flags in contested territory. ТАСС and Два майора report "complete liberation" of DNR territory and continued offensive into Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF forces took control of a 5-hectare forest area in LNR. WarGonzo posts video of "Group Nemets" (291st Regiment) conducting drone reconnaissance and artillery strikes on UAF positions in Zaporizhzhia. Военкор Котенок confirms RF MoD claims of advancing "deep into enemy defenses" and "liberating" Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Colonelcassad posts video claiming "Vostok" Group of Forces liberated Novoselovka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) posts photo message of Leonid Slutsky visiting Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. Рыбарь posts a tactical map titled "Liberation of Novoselovka," depicting claimed RF advances and control. RF MoD claims the "Vostok" Group of Forces made ground and took Novoselovka under control in Dnepropetrovsk region. RF Kotsnews reports the Russian army liberated Novoselovka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF Alex Parker Returns reports two Ukrainian DRGs are being sought in Kaluga Oblast (Zhigra, Lyudinovo, Kirov regions), allegedly comprising 5 personnel each (officer/sergeant from 3rd SOF Regiment), equipped with 10kg explosives, F-1 grenades, Garmin comms, AR-15 rifles with suppressors, PSS/MSP pistols. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts photo messages regarding the "Zaporizhzhia direction." БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video alleging a Russian occupier riding a motorcycle was targeted by a kamikaze drone. MoD Russia posts a photo message on the "progress of special military operation as of 4 September 2025." Два майора posts a series of photos, titled "Soldier's Daily Life," depicting a cat with camouflage gear and soldiers in a field environment. STERNENKO posts a video claiming another motorcyclist with a sidecar was destroyed by an FPV drone in the Pokrovsk direction. Colonelcassad posts a video claiming FPV drone crews of the RF 124th Separate Brigade of the RF Armed Forces consistently destroyed a Ukrainian DRG attempting to advance into the island zone of the Dnipro River. RF MOD - UKRAINIAN DRG DESTROYED (DNIPRO RIVER): TASS reports the RF Ministry of Defense states a Ukrainian DRG that attempted to land in the island zone of the Dnipro River was destroyed. RF - SUMY DIRECTION ADVANCE: Colonelcassad posts a video claiming "local advance in Yunakovka and front-line stability on the border" in the Sumy direction. RF - PZBH 2000 HOWITZER DESTROYED: "Воин DV" posts a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer. TASS - RF MOD CLAIMS DRG DESTRUCTION: TASS posts a video with the caption "Footage of the destruction of a Ukrainian DRG attempting to land in the island zone of the Dnipro." RF CONTROL OF DNIPRO DELTA ISLANDS (KHERSON): TASS reports that Saldo claims RF forces maintain control over islands in the Dnipro delta in Kherson Oblast. RF TACTICAL MAP - DONETSK/ZAPORIZHZHIA/DNIPROPETROVSK OFFENSIVE: Colonelcassad posts a tactical map claiming the front line after the "liberation" of the southwestern DNR, showing the offensive continuing into Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetropsk Oblasts. RF MILBLOGGER DRONE REQUEST: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video of an RF soldier requesting a Mavic 3 drone for reconnaissance and artillery spotting. UAF STRIKE ON RF TANK/ARTILLERY/ROBOTIC COMPLEX (DONETSK): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video claiming Phoenix unit operators of the State Border Guard Service (DPSU) destroyed an RF tank, artillery piece, and ground robotic complex in Donetsk Oblast. UAF FPV Drone Strike (Kherson): Шеф Hayabusa reports two RF occupiers were eliminated in the Kherson direction by an FPV drone strike. RF Air/Drone Strike on UAF Buggy (Vostok Group): Voin DV posts video claiming operators of the 69th Cover Brigade of the "Vostok" Group of Forces struck an enemy buggy. RF Bombing of Hospital/Village (Kostiantynivka): RBC-Ukraine reports RF dropped aerial bombs on a hospital in Kostiantynivka and a nearby village. RF MoD claims snipers of the 2nd Combined Arms Army (Tsentr Group of Forces) eliminated over 100 heavy strike drones of the AFU (referring to "Baba-Yaga" drones) in Krasnoarmeysk direction. RF Military Transportation Document Extension: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF MoD plans to increase the validity of military transportation documents from three to six months. UAF claims to have struck an RF ammunition depot in occupied Selydove. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF milblogger "Два майора" posts a map of the Zaporizhzhia front near Stepnohirsk. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO reports increased RF use of heavy equipment and small infantry groups for assaults on the Zaporizhzhia direction, supported by drone footage of strikes on RF positions and vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Finnish (Janus Putkonen) and Ukrainian sources (citing "Ukrainian propagandists") claim Russia has conducted its largest regrouping since 2022 and is ready for a decisive battle for Donbas, publishing intelligence maps. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad posts video of 155th Marine Brigade cadets undergoing an obstacle course, demonstrating physical fitness and teamwork, likely for morale/recruitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF fought Colombian mercenaries for two days, possibly as part of an IO effort to denigrate UAF and its foreign support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) MoD Russia reports servicemembers of the 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade (Vostok Group of Forces) are in Novoselovka, Dnipropetrovsk region, confirming RF ground presence and claimed control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports "active battles" in the Pokrovsko-Dobropolsk direction, indicating continued RF ground pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad posts a video showcasing the "Courier" robotic platform equipped with a laser system for demining (Ignis laser demining system), demonstrating remote detonation of TM-62 and PTM-3/PMN mines at 150m. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports the Lozovaya district substation on the Kupyansk direction was destroyed by RF forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Fighterbomber posts a video displaying ZSU-23-4 Shilka self-propelled anti-aircraft weapon systems in a parade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: MoD Russia releases video claiming "AFU UAV long-range deploying area being eliminated in Chernigov region," showing a strike on vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF observation and evacuation points were destroyed in the Druzhkovsky direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Fighterbomber posts two identical video messages celebrating the 85th anniversary of the Kazan Helicopter Plant, showcasing helicopter production and various models (including rescue/transport/medical). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts two photo messages and two video messages with the caption "Kharkiv direction," one showing a map with explosion icons near Luk'yantsi and Lyptsi, and the videos showing drone footage of successful strikes against UAF mortar positions, military vehicles (truck, tractor), damaged buildings, and a downed 'Baba-Yaga' drone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: MoD Russia posts two identical video messages titled "Russian drone pilots lose no time," showcasing FPV drone footage identifying and targeting armored vehicles (BTRs), communication systems (antennas), and other infrastructure, with explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Colonelcassad posts two identical video messages with the caption "Footage of the destruction of a long-range AFU UAV preparation and launch point in Chernihiv Oblast," showing an aerial strike on multiple white vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: TASS reports RF MOD claims shooting down two Ukrainian drones over Rostov and Belgorod Oblasts, and two over the Black Sea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: WarGonzo posts a text message: "Exclusive. The DPR team is leading the score: 'Somali,' 'Piatnashka,' and legendary militiamen," promoting success for proxy forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ground Forces: Strong offensive focus on Sieversk. Asserting control of "about half" of Kupyansk, directly contradicted by UAF but also met with UAF counter-action against flag-planting assault groups. DeepState is now confirming RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk, though UAF still denies firm control of the city center, only small group infiltration. Reports of RF successfully destroying UAF motorized units near Pokrovsk with casualties. Claims liberation of Kamyshevakha and full control of Yanvarske. Persistent attempts at infiltration (Pokrovsk axis). Engages fortified positions. Putin claims all RF groupings are successfully advancing. Conducted deadly artillery/FPV drone strikes on Kostiantynivka. RF forces are employing anti-thermal imaging cloaks to facilitate covert infiltration. RF utilizes drones for surveillance and targeting. RF engineering vehicle (likely AVLB) destroyed by UAF forces, though RF attempts to misattribute it to UAF losses for IO. RF 506th Regiment "Otvazhnye" reportedly engaged in combat around Pokrovsk. RF "Russkaya Vesna" is showcasing large-scale social object creation in Luhansk People's Republic (LNR). FAB-3000 strike on a UAF PVD (Forward Operating Base). "Two Majors" video ("No obstacles for the Guard!") shows aerial combat footage. "Two Majors" and "Partisan56rus" are posting from the Pokrovsk direction. Vladimir Saldo claims UAF are mining houses on Karantynny Island (Kherson). "Operation Z" video of an FPV drone strike on a vehicle in the border area, claiming to support an advance on Sumy. Colonelcassad drone footage of high-precision strikes on UAF trench positions demonstrates RF's capability for targeted ground attacks using drones to degrade UAF defensive lines. Rybar's map-based analysis of the Shcherbinovka operations clearly indicates RF's capability to achieve tactical encirclement and territorial gains. TASS reports RF military advances near Chervonaya Dibrova (LNR) and control of 5 hectares of forest near Grigorievka (DNR), citing military expert Marochko. WarGonzo's "Frontline summary for the morning of 04.09.25" with multiple photo messages. Zvиздец Мангусту's summary indicates continued focus on the Sieversk (Slavyansk) direction and provides insight into RF's planning for the Pokrovsk assault. Colonelcassad posts a video claiming "First Tank Army" destroyed an enemy pickup and combatant. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that RF forces have carried out their largest regrouping since the 2022 Kyiv battles, amassing a large number of forces for a "final, decisive battle" for the rest of Donetsk Oblast. RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia is preparing a new offensive against Ukraine, citing Bloomberg. UAF General Staff reports repelling 5 RF army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message about the "Konstantinovsky direction." Воин DV posts a video showing "harsh hits on enemy manpower trying to escape, but unsuccessfully," depicting drone footage of strikes on fortified positions and personnel. Kotsnews posts a video showcasing the "Ant" exoskeleton vest designed to reduce fatigue and enhance mobility for soldiers. Два майора posts a video urging "Let's activate! Over the past day, 669 people participated in the collection for assault troops of the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment." Два майора posts video of UAV operator training from the Konstantinovsky direction, specifically naming the 33rd Motorized Rifle Berlin-Don Cossack Regiment, 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division. MoD Russia releases video claiming a Fagot ATGM of the Zapad Group of Forces neutralized a Bradley IFV, a field ammunition depot, and AFU manpower. Mash на Донбассе posts a video claiming the Russian army began assaulting Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, showing UAV footage of strikes on a damaged building and surrounding area with military personnel. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF is again using incendiary mixtures to set fires in LNR. Colonelcassad posts a video showing the alleged capture of a Ukrainian DRG in Bryansk Oblast, whose task was railway sabotage. Воин DV posts a video claiming scouts from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade located a camouflaged enemy vehicle in the forests west of Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). Воин DV (RF milblogger, Vostok Group of Forces) claims the "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, supported by video showing artillery strikes, damage, RF flags, and soldiers. Два майора reports the "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by the "Vostok" Group of Forces, claiming it's the sixth in the region. ТАСС reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have "liberated" Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Сливочный каприз posts video from the Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka direction (04.09.25) showing artillery strikes, damaged buildings, and both Ukrainian and Russian flags in contested territory. ТАСС and Два майора report "complete liberation" of DNR territory and continued offensive into Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF forces took control of a 5-hectare forest area in LNR. WarGonzo posts video of "Group Nemets" (291st Regiment) conducting drone reconnaissance and artillery strikes on UAF positions in Zaporizhzhia. Военкор Котенок confirms RF MoD claims of advancing "deep into enemy defenses" and "liberating" Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Colonelcassad posts video claiming "Vostok" Group of Forces liberated Novoselovka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) posts photo message of Leonid Slutsky visiting Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. Рыбарь posts a tactical map titled "Liberation of Novoselovka," depicting claimed RF advances and control. RF MoD claims the "Vostok" Group of Forces made ground and took Novoselovka under control in Dnepropetrovsk region. RF Kotsnews reports the Russian army liberated Novoselovka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF Alex Parker Returns reports two Ukrainian DRGs are being sought in Kaluga Oblast (Zhigra, Lyudinovo, Kirov regions), allegedly comprising 5 personnel each (officer/sergeant from 3rd SOF Regiment), equipped with 10kg explosives, F-1 grenades, Garmin comms, AR-15 rifles with suppressors, PSS/MSP pistols. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts photo messages regarding the "Zaporizhzhia direction." БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video alleging a Russian occupier riding a motorcycle was targeted by a kamikaze drone. MoD Russia posts a photo message on the "progress of special military operation as of 4 September 2025." Два майора posts a series of photos, titled "Soldier's Daily Life," depicting a cat with camouflage gear and soldiers in a field environment. STERNENKO posts a video claiming another motorcyclist with a sidecar was destroyed by an FPV drone in the Pokrovsk direction. Colonelcassad posts a video claiming FPV drone crews of the RF 124th Separate Brigade of the RF Armed Forces consistently destroyed a Ukrainian DRG attempting to advance into the island zone of the Dnipro River. RF MOD - UKRAINIAN DRG DESTROYED (DNIPRO RIVER): TASS reports the RF Ministry of Defense states a Ukrainian DRG that attempted to land in the island zone of the Dnipro River was destroyed. RF - SUMY DIRECTION ADVANCE: Colonelcassad posts a video claiming "local advance in Yunakovka and front-line stability on the border" in the Sumy direction. RF - PZBH 2000 HOWITZER DESTROYED: "Воин DV" posts a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer. TASS - RF MOD CLAIMS DRG DESTRUCTION: TASS posts a video with the caption "Footage of the destruction of a Ukrainian DRG attempting to land in the island zone of the Dnipro." RF CONTROL OF DNIPRO DELTA ISLANDS (KHERSON): TASS reports that Saldo claims RF forces maintain control over islands in the Dnipro delta in Kherson Oblast. RF TACTICAL MAP - DONETSK/ZAPORIZHZHIA/DNIPROPETROVSK OFFENSIVE: Colonelcassad posts a tactical map claiming the front line after the "liberation" of the southwestern DNR, showing the offensive continuing into Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetropsk Oblasts. RF MILBLOGGER DRONE REQUEST: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video of an RF soldier requesting a Mavic 3 drone for reconnaissance and artillery spotting. UAF STRIKE ON RF TANK/ARTILLERY/ROBOTIC COMPLEX (DONETSK): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video claiming Phoenix unit operators of the State Border Guard Service (DPSU) destroyed an RF tank, artillery piece, and ground robotic complex in Donetsk Oblast. UAF FPV Drone Strike (Kherson): Шеф Hayabusa reports two RF occupiers were eliminated in the Kherson direction by an FPV drone strike. RF Air/Drone Strike on UAF Buggy (Vostok Group): Voin DV posts video claiming operators of the 69th Cover Brigade of the "Vostok" Group of Forces struck an enemy buggy. RF Bombing of Hospital/Village (Kostiantynivka): RBC-Ukraine reports RF dropped aerial bombs on a hospital in Kostiantynivka and a nearby village. RF MoD claims snipers of the 2nd Combined Arms Army (Tsentr Group of Forces) eliminated over 100 heavy strike drones of the AFU (referring to "Baba-Yaga" drones) in Krasnoarmeysk direction. RF Military Transportation Document Extension: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF MoD plans to increase the validity of military transportation documents from three to six months. UAF claims to have struck an RF ammunition depot in occupied Selydove. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF milblogger "Два майора" posts a map of the Zaporizhzhia front near Stepnohirsk. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO reports increased RF use of heavy equipment and small infantry groups for assaults on the Zaporizhzhia direction, supported by drone footage of strikes on RF positions and vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Finnish (Janus Putkonen) and Ukrainian sources (citing "Ukrainian propagandists") claim Russia has conducted its largest regrouping since 2022 and is ready for a decisive battle for Donbas, publishing intelligence maps. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad posts video of 155th Marine Brigade cadets undergoing an obstacle course, demonstrating physical fitness and teamwork, likely for morale/recruitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF fought Colombian mercenaries for two days, possibly as part of an IO effort to denigrate UAF and its foreign support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) MoD Russia reports servicemembers of the 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade (Vostok Group of Forces) are in Novoselovka, Dnipropetrovsk region, confirming RF ground presence and claimed control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports "active battles" in the Pokrovsko-Dobropolsk direction, indicating continued RF ground pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad posts a video showcasing the "Courier" robotic platform equipped with a laser system for demining (Ignis laser demining system), demonstrating remote detonation of TM-62 and PTM-3/PMN mines at 150m. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports the Lozovaya district substation on the Kupyansk direction was destroyed by RF forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF observation and evacuation points were destroyed in the Druzhkovsky direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts two photo messages and two video messages with the caption "Kharkiv direction," showing drone footage of successful strikes against UAF mortar positions, military vehicles (truck, tractor), damaged buildings, and a downed 'Baba-Yaga' drone, and a map with explosion icons. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: MoD Russia posts two identical video messages titled "Russian drone pilots lose no time," showcasing FPV drone footage identifying and targeting armored vehicles (BTRs), communication systems (antennas), and other infrastructure, with explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • C2/Intelligence: Coordinated deep strike and ground operations continue. RF IO is highly active, consolidating anti-Western narratives, promoting RF resilience and diplomatic influence, while also addressing internal security issues. Actively training personnel with FPV drones. Publicly crowdfunding for drones. Putin's press conference was a major IO event. RF IO is now actively deflecting Trump's "conspiracy" claims and using highly derogatory language against Zelenskyy. Trump's planned call with Putin is being amplified, though later clarified by UAF sources as a call with Zelenskyy, but US Ambassador Monica Crowley now states Trump wants to find common ground with RF in various spheres during talks with Putin. RF IO is promoting communistic social policies, celebrating infrastructure in Bryansk region, and promoting industrial self-sufficiency. RF is utilizing nationalistic cultural events for morale. RF IO is propagating conspiracy theories about opposition deaths in Germany. RF is also leveraging historical narratives to assert influence over European capitals. RF IO continues to push narratives about UK sanctions being cynical and deflect accusations of child abduction. RF IO is also using conspiracy theories (Epstein) to undermine Western institutions. RF IO is leveraging UAF statements on "frozen conflict" for Ukraine. RF IO is pushing a narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. RF IO is using light-hearted content, and providing daily news summaries. RF IO using a photo of Putin at a Chinese-style building to project diplomatic success. RF IO claims Kupyansk was "subsidized" and a reminder of a "totalitarian regime." RF IO also mocks Zelenskyy's actions. RF actor-volunteer interview reinforces morale. RF IO uses an ambiguous graphic with Apple logo and date "09 09 25", potentially hinting at future IO or cyber activity aimed at the West. The death of a Russian citizen at Burning Man has potential for IO exploitation. RF IO also includes civilian cultural news to project normalcy. Volgograd airport, previously under restrictions, has lifted them. Sochi airport restrictions were also implemented, then lifted. Gaza City before/after video is RF IO. RF IO highlights economic stability. RF IO is actively promoting China's military parade and linking it to Taiwan's fears. RF IO is leveraging the US court ruling on Harvard grants. The Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) continues in Vladivostok. The strategic dialogue with the GCC is an example of RF's capability to expand diplomatic influence. The focus on military pension indexation and future budget increases for pensioners of "power structures" is a key internal IO effort. Discussions at the EEF on securing funding for Far East energy generation highlight RF's focus on internal economic development. RF IO is now actively countering claims of Western support for Ukraine, with Maria Zakharova stating that Ukraine's security guarantees are "guarantees of danger" for Europe, and that US missile sales contradict settlement talks. RF is also reinforcing internal messaging on pension indexation for working pensioners. RF is openly discussing potential revisions to foreign currency revenue sales for exporters. RF is promoting its energy sector development, including plans for an all-Russia energy meeting and the creation of a Primorye branch of Rosenergoatom. RF is using narratives about the SCO summit causing "hysteria" in the West. New RF internal security threats from scammers are being reported. New proposals regarding educational loan forgiveness for strategic sectors and Rosseti investments in the Far East show internal economic focus. The Amsterdam court denying Gazprom's appeal is a legal setback for RF, but the Khabarovsk governor's openness to ExxonMobil indicates long-term economic strategy. Rosatom's plan to attract borrowed funds for NPPs from 2028 and the Minfin's stance against abandoning cash also indicate long-term economic planning. Gold tokenization is a new technological/economic initiative. The rehearsal footage of the Alexandrov Ensemble for a China trip highlights cultural diplomacy. Maria Zakharova is actively refuting Western reports of a "hybrid attack" on Ursula von der Leyen's plane. The GTLC contract for 50 "Baikal" aircraft for "Aerokhimflot" signals continued internal development of civil aviation. The mine collapse in Yakutia is a localized industrial incident. TASS reports that a former deputy head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations in Kuban, Simonenko, is appealing his dismissal. The Mongolian Prime Minister's arrival at the EEF further expands RF's diplomatic outreach. TASS also reports the Ministry of Emergency Situations will receive nine new Arctic Mi-38 helicopters by the end of the year. Maria Zakharova, at the EEF, stated Russia is closely monitoring NATO's "Namejs 2025" exercises in Latvia. Maria Zakharova, at the EEF, commented on the Ukrainian Ministry of Culture's actions at the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra. Her statements on Azerbaijan and the OSCE Minsk Group confirm an intent to project Russian diplomatic influence. Sergey Tsivilev's interview at the EEF provides a platform for RF to project economic strength. "Fighterbomber" (RF milblogger) posts a generic "Good morning, country!" image. "Paratrooper's Diary" (RF milblogger) provides a general summary. VTB Deputy Chairman Alexander Pakhomov announced at the EEF that Russian bank deposits are expected to grow by 17% in 2025. RF sources ("Operation Z" via Russkaya Vesna) are showcasing humanitarian aid to troops. TASS continuing to report on the "missing minute" from the Epstein video. Basurin o Glavnom (RF milblogger) posts "DAYinHISTORY." TASS reports FSB detained a 35-year-old SBU agent in Kherson Oblast for espionage against RF military units. Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) reports Germany is discussing troop redeployment to Poland, citing NYT. Север.Реалии reports statements at the EEF on "technical stagnation" and a decline comparable to the 1990s crisis in Russia. TASS reports factors strengthening the ruble at the beginning of the year are no longer working. TASS reports Dima Bilan, Zivert, and Mari Kraimbreri as most popular radio performers in Russia over summer. TASS reports the "Coalition of the Willing" participants cannot agree on troop deployment in Ukraine, citing FT, and that the coalition is divided into three parts. Новости Москвы reports a "Motobezopasnost" raid in Moscow from Sep 5-7. ASTRA reports Z-propagandist Kashevarova claimed the formation of units from military personnel with hepatitis and HIV, who will be issued distinctive armbands. TASS reports Uniqlo holding applied for 10 trademarks with Rospatent. Военкор Котенок posts videos and images related to volunteer efforts ("Dobryy Slon" foundation) to support lonely elderly people in Russia. TASS reports tour operators have not received mass complaints from Russians in Turkey about a "strange virus" on beaches. ТАСС reports Putin familiarized himself with an interactive presentation on the development of the Far East and received reports on work done. ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova stated at the EEF that "Russia once saved Germany. Now the German people must awaken and save themselves; the situation in the country is comparable to a pulled self-destruction pin." Kotsnews posts "Merz threatens revenge," an RF milblogger comment framing German political discourse. Fighterbomber posts a comment critical of historical narratives regarding the Red Army. ТАСС reports Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov stated at the EEF that the Russian economy is cooling faster than expected. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/ТИEDOTТЕЕТ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) posts a photo message implying a summit of "willing idiots" today discussing "Ukraine's guarantees." Север.Реалии reports users experienced Google and YouTube outages in various countries. ТАСС reports Deputy Prime Minister Overchuk met with Afghanistan's Ambassador to Moscow Gul Hassan after an EEF session. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Kotsnews post photo messages with the caption "Военкоры" (milbloggers), featuring portraits of two men. ТАСС reports Degtyarev, at the EEF session "Sports Diplomacy: New Challenges and Opportunities," stated that dozens of football (soccer) executives have changed their rhetoric on changing the limit for foreign players in the country's championship. ТАСС posts a video showing Putin with a delegation, including military personnel, observing urban development plans. ТАСС reports Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated that the Russian Federation observes that Ukraine and the EU currently lack the desire to seek peaceful resolutions to the crisis. ТАСС reports Moscow is ready to continue dialogue with Kyiv in Istanbul and is open to considering raising the level of delegations, according to Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin. Военкор Котенок reports Western resources are pushing the narrative that the RF Armed Forces are conducting their largest regrouping in three years. Рыбарь posts a photo message celebrating "Nuclear Support Specialist Day," featuring a stylized graphic. Басурин о главном posts a video showing young contract soldiers learning first aid and evacuation techniques. Новости Москвы posts a video promoting the "Open Water" festival in Krylatskoye, Moscow. Операция Z (via Russkaya Vesna) posts a photo message with "British circus: how The Times sculpts an 'unkillable hero' out of Filimonov," an IO piece against a Ukrainian figure. ТАСС reports Germany will propose strengthening Ukraine's air defense and providing equipment for four mechanized brigades at the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting in Paris. Colonelcassad posts multiple videos showing humanitarian aid (body armor, medical supplies, provisions, hospital beds, infusion pumps, children's nutrition, school supplies, tea sets, raincoats) to RF soldiers and civilian medical facilities/families in Donetsk. Басурин о главном states, "Germany is on a dangerous path to war with Russia," reflecting RF IO to sow fear and division within NATO. Kotsnews posts a photo message with the caption, "How Europe will provoke a big war with Russia," reflecting RF IO. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message quoting Maria Zakharova stating Trump's main task is to "save America," and that his peace statements are "courageous." Новости Москвы reports Uniqlo may return to Russia. MoD Russia posts videos showing Putin touring a military-patriotic education center and an interactive zone dedicated to Major General Mikhail Gudkov (155th Naval Infantry Brigade). ТАСС posts a video showing Putin interacting with female cadets at a military-patriotic center, mentioning parachuting. Alex Parker Returns posts a historical newspaper clipping (1997) involving Donald Trump and Moscow, with commentary suggesting current events are a continuation of historical narratives. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts a photo message about a conscript fighting military commissariat for four years, reflecting an internal RF issue with mobilization and legal challenges. Два майора posts a photo message with the caption: "The enemy was caught on camera by an FPV drone on fiber optics. For the last time." Два майора posts a video advertising a "military lawyer online" service, featuring a testimonial from a pixelated soldier claiming to have successfully left Ukraine and been dismissed from service in RF with payments. AV БогомаZ (Bryansk governor) posts photos of a working meeting with Gazprom Energy Sales Tyumen director, discussing investment in Bryansk Oblast. ТАСС reports on Der Spiegel's article about "Coalition of the Willing" having 3 options for sending troops to Ukraine. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС cites Russian propagandist Anastasia Kashevarova's warning about an "epidemic of hepatitis and HIV in Russian troops" spreading to Russia. Север.Реалии reports Putin's niece claiming Russia's "leadership" in prosthetics due to the war. Alex Parker Returns quotes NATO SecGen Rutte on Article 5 not extending to Indo-Pacific partners, interpreting it as a "hint" to Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, etc., and using the phrase "Быть добру!" (Good will come of it!), reflecting RF IO aiming to sow doubt among NATO's global partners. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports raising over 17,000 (currency not specified, likely RUB for crowdfunding) in the morning, with just under 50,000 remaining. Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) amplifies a Bloomberg report that "Europe is preparing a package of 'security guarantees' for Ukraine." ТАСС reports Putin remotely opened the Pacific Railway via video link. Новости Москвы reports Moscow will begin confirming age by biometrics at self-service checkouts. Сливочный каприз posts a graphic about "Railroad workers protest." КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UAF source) provides an update on yesterday's satellite images regarding strikes in Crimea, citing "Militarny" and "Astra" that "Flamingo" cruise missiles likely hit six hovercraft (A25 "Parus," "Siverko-25," and "Khivus-10"), with visual confirmation for four and one serviceman killed. ТАСС reports The Smiths vocalist Morrissey is selling all rights and licenses. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) voted to resume direct broadcasts of its sessions. Басурин о главном posts an ad for a "Toyota Corolla" giveaway. Colonelcassad reports RF Energy Minister Tsivilev stated Russia will supply China with over 100 billion cubic meters of gas per year. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts photo messages promoting a "Sotki Marathon" (crowdfunding). ТАСС reports 303 million rubles allocated to close the "Great Russian Encyclopedia" project. Alex Parker Returns posts economic analysis of RF cooling economy, reduced oil and gas profits, and impact of sanctions. ТАСС reports Krasnov ordered checks on State Traffic Inspectorate and Rostransnadzor after business complaints. Colonelcassad reports Putin visited "Russia" national center at EEF-2025, and the "SMO" theme was present. ТАСС reports three powerful DDoS attacks on EEF resources were repelled. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts an anti-corruption guide from NAZK in comic format. Alex Parker Returns posts photo message with commentary on the "historic meeting of irreconcilables" (Coalition of the Resolute), discussing security guarantees for Ukraine with derogatory remarks about participants. RF TASS reports Inditex (Zara, Bershka) applied to Rospatent to register the Zara trademark in blue and white. RF Alex Parker Returns claims Foreign Minister of Kazakhstan, Murat Nurtleu, was detained immediately after returning from the SCO summit in Beijing, with searches at Kazakh special services. RF Север.Реалии reports the operational headquarters of Belgorod Oblast has prohibited publishing unofficial information about military operations and their deployment locations. RF Kadyrov_95 posts a video celebrating the birth of Prophet Muhammad, featuring a large gathering at a mosque with fireworks. RF Север.Реалии reports Belarus declared Ilya Varlamov's social networks "extremist." RF Alex Parker Returns quotes NATO Secretary General Rutte stating NATO intends to confront Russia "after the conflict in Ukraine ends." RF Colonelcassad posts a video of Putin at an exhibition, being explained modern slang ("cringe," "chilovaya katka"). RF Alex Parker Returns reports two Ukrainian DRGs are being sought in Kaluga Oblast (Zhigra, Lyudinovo, Kirov regions). RF TASS reports the French National Porcelain Museum was robbed of €9.5 million. RF TASS posts a video of heavy fog on Russky Island (Vladivostok), where the EEF is taking place. TASS reports that Kazakhstan's Minister of Culture and Information, Aida Balaeva, has denied the detention of the country's Foreign Minister. Colonelcassad posts videos of President Putin remotely launching new infrastructure projects in the Far East regions via video link from the EEF. TASS reports Russia is expelling an employee of the Estonian embassy in Moscow as a retaliatory measure. Операция Z (via Russkaya Vesna) posts a video covering the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting in Paris, framing it as a "Parisian gathering" and stating they "are again waiting for a call from Trump." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video depicting a North Korean delegate bowing deeply to an off-camera official, likely Russian, after Putin's meeting with Kim Jong Un, with the caption suggesting North Korean special services are cleaning Kim Jong Un's DNA. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts a video featuring a speaker at the Eastern Economic Forum discussing veterans of the "special military operation" and their integration into society, noting that "military personnel have become drivers of Russian prosthetics." TASS reports Putin stated that internal demand for gas is growing, and export obligations are also increasing. TASS reports the EU fears Germany may eventually refuse to participate in a possible military mission in Ukraine. "Старше Эдды" reports that the LDPR (Liberal Democratic Party of Russia) will "protect families from credit slavery." "Операция Z" (via Russkaya Vesna) uses the headline "Europe wants to turn the AFU into a 'steel porcupine'," implying a strengthened, defensive Ukrainian military. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reports Germany's chief intelligence officer will be a former German ambassador to Ukraine, Afghanistan, and Iraq. TASS reports the death toll from the Afghanistan earthquake has exceeded 2,200. "Новости Москвы" reports heating will be turned on when the average daily air temperature does not exceed +8 degrees Celsius for 5 consecutive days. "Север.Реалии" reports the operational headquarters of Belgorod Oblast has prohibited publishing unofficial information about military operations and their deployment locations. WarGonzo posts a video "Confession behind the balaclava — 'Afonya' about love, cowardice and meanings." TASS opened a regional information center in Vladivostok. TASS reports that Chinese state media (CBC) claims China is attempting to take a leading role in shaping a new world order, while the US is losing allies. TASS reports that Russian mortgage rates will gradually decrease from their current level of 18%. RBC-Ukraine reports that Witkoff and Zelenskyy will hold a meeting in Paris, citing Reuters. UAF General Staff posts multiple photo messages (#Воїни_Думки #Воїни_Слова). UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a photo message stating that the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) is reinstating criminal liability for unauthorized absence (СЗЧ). RF "Рыбарь" posts a photo message titled "📝Труба зовет📝." UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports that Britain has directed over £1 billion (1.3 billion $) from frozen Russian assets to military aid for Ukraine. TASS reports an unusual plasma ejection from the sun. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War posts a photo message about an online meeting with families of servicemen from the 19th Separate Rifle Battalion. UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts a video from occupied Donetsk depicting long lines of civilians, primarily elderly, waiting for water distribution, and also shows "water marauders" stealing water from barrels. TASS reports RF Construction Minister Irek Faizullin is considering mortgage support measures for youth. Colonelcassad posts a video by Rojin on "Destruction of Ukrainian energy, robodogs and naval blockade of Odesa." ASTRA reports a local resident in Murmansk was arrested for donating to the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK). TASS reports the Ministry of Health denied changes to sick leave issuance from September 1st, with changes still under discussion. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting in Paris concluded, with a call with Trump scheduled. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War posts photo messages about a meeting with families of servicemen from the 119th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade of Ukraine. TASS reports Milorad Dodik stated the Republic of Srpska may declare independence if external pressure intensifies. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message criticizing Macron and Pavel Durov, implying a negative impact of "French influence" or changing identities. TASS reports a BMW in Berlin hit a group of 7-8 year old children. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts a video "🤬Тот самый прогресс в протезировании." Alex Parker Returns posts a video criticizing Whitkoff's and Zelenskyy's quick departure from the Paris meeting. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports 20% of soldiers need psychological support after returning from the SMO, with a shortage of qualified psychologists in Russia. Новости Москвы reports registration opened for an autumn cycling festival on September 13th. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a photo message on Murat Mukashev, an alleged Navalny supporter who opposed the war, was imprisoned for drugs, then joined RF assault troops and was liquidated in Kharkiv Oblast. Janus Putkonen posts a video titled "Halukkaiden idioottien kokous on alkanut." Два майора posts a photo message with the caption: "How USA influences EU through training 'correct' analysts." Colonelcassad reports the RF Ministry of Defense daily summary for the SMO as of 04 SEP 25. Alex Parker Returns posts a video claiming police in LNR stopped a car with "Akhmat Circus" for traffic violations. Janus Putkonen posts a video titled "Yandex-roboteilla on Moskovassa poikkeuksellista rohkeutta 😂." RF Presidential Promotion: Kadyrov_95 reports that RF President by Decree assigned the high military rank of Lieutenant General to Magomed Daudov, Chairman of the Government of Chechen Republic. RF Civilian Flights Resume: Moscow News reports Aeroflot resumes regular flights from Moscow to Seychelles and Sri Lanka. Witkoff Leaves Paris Meeting Early (TASS): TASS reports Witkoff left the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting at the Élysée Palace 45 minutes after it began, citing Ukrainian media. RF is promoting its quality of mobile internet in Moscow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS posts IO on Naryshkin claiming "many Western leaders are going down the path to an abyss." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF TASS reports Abbas will arrive at the first Russian-Arab summit in October with a large delegation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF TASS reports Zyuganov states proposed minimum wage increase is insufficient. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF milblogger Fighterbomber posts an aerial photo from an aircraft, likely for IO/morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF milblogger Два майора discusses new "channels" feature on VK, demonstrating internal RF social media observation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF milblogger МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts about a military family waiting for housing for four years, highlighting an internal social issue. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Russian human rights ombudswoman Moskalkova reports ongoing dialogue regarding the return of Kursk residents from Sumy, but no defined date, indicating continued diplomatic efforts on humanitarian issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF claims a drug lab operating under Ukrainian special services was discovered near Novosibirsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF milblogger "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" shares a video on regional leaders of "Association of SVO Veterans" helping soldiers adapt to civilian life, reflecting internal RF efforts to support veterans. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF TASS reports Mikhail Efremov officially joined Nikita Mikhalkov's "Master's Workshop '12'" theater troupe. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF TASS reports the death of writer Patrick Hemingway, son of Ernest Hemingway. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad reports Kallas's comments on RF/China WWII narrative, highlighting an external critique of RF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO reports Zelenskyy's statement about Trump calling on Hungary and Slovakia to stop buying Russian oil. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Офіс Генерального прокурора posts a video detailing torture and robbery by RF servicemen in Kherson in Nov 2022, a confirmed war crime. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Басурин о главном posts an image titled "Europe in a Trap: Security Guarantees for Ukraine or a Geopolitical Fool's Game?" indicating continued RF IO to undermine Western support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Два майора posts a video on incidents involving minors, law enforcement interactions, detentions, and legal expert commentary on juvenile offenders in Russia, revealing RF's focus on internal security and legal control, potentially for IO on "Ukrainian sabotage" by minors. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS posts a graphic of SCO countries with an American eagle, indicating RF IO to highlight geopolitical alignments and counter US influence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ASTRA and TASS post videos of Putin thanking China for visa-free travel and announcing Russia will reciprocate, reinforcing RF-China diplomatic ties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Новости Москвы reports a "Beer Nemarathon" festival in Moscow, indicating RF IO to project normalcy and cultural activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Операция Z reports 16 German candidates died before elections, an unsubstantiated claim likely intended to sow distrust in Western democracies. (LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity; HIGH CONFIDENCE on intent) TASS reports Italy will not send troops to Ukraine, as stated by PM Meloni after the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting, which RF will leverage to highlight divisions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS also quotes Putin claiming "metat biser" (casting pearls before swine) before Rutte is useless, continuing to delegitimize Western leaders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad shares a meme criticizing US demands for Europe to stop buying Russian oil, indicating an RF IO effort to exploit Western economic divisions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: TASS reports RF not paying insurance after AZAL catastrophe are cynical and false. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: НгП раZVедка quotes "The Narcissist" (Zelenskyy) saying "Putin will be forced to peace. We need to take away the Russian military machine's means of producing weapons." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: MoD Russia releases video claiming "AFU UAV long-range deploying area being eliminated in Chernigov region." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: TASS reports Washington authorities sued the Trump administration for deploying the National Guard to the city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: НгП раZVедка uses derogatory language ("Narcissist excited by the strong statements of Panin's wife") to dismiss Ukrainian political figures and the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Новости Москвы reports the death of a Sumatran orangutan in the Moscow Zoo. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts a video about the head of the Investigative Committee investigating the circumstances of a military serviceman's house being set on fire, featuring a woman describing her husband's car being set alight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Стрелков Игорь Иванович (Strelkov) posts a text message: "IGOR STRELKOV: WE MUST PREPARE FOR A BIG WAR AND NEW ATTEMPTS AT DESTABILIZATION." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Два майора posts a message about the Belgorod governor. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: TASS posts a photo with a quote attributed to Pavel Durov: "Slavic states never invaded Europe without reason, but the reverse happened repeatedly." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: ASTRA posts a video with the caption: "Kim Jong Un took his own toilet to the summit in China, and his staff carefully destroyed his bio-traces." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Операция Z reports (citing Russian Spring military correspondents) that Italy and Poland will not send troops to Ukraine, as stated by their authorities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: TASS reports U.S. will cut defense aid for Russia-bordering countries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts several identical photo messages with a derogatory caption expressing alarm about changing demographics in a Yekaterinburg school. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Басурин о главном posts two identical photo messages referencing the Cuban Missile Crisis (Sep 4, 1962), and a caption stating Kennedy warned Castro, and Moscow stated US intervention would lead to global conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: AV БогомаZ (Bryansk governor) posts a text message: "Another vile crime of the Armed Forces of Ukraine." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Военкор Котенок posts two identical photo messages with the caption "Main news today (04.09.2025)." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: RF IO (Societal/Migration Tensions): Alex Parker Returns posts two identical video messages with the caption "In Poland, an indispensable specialist from Ukraine, a Khokhol called an indispensable specialist from Central Asia a Churka. In response, the Churka called the Khokhol a Rashist for some reason. Savages." The video depicts a heated verbal exchange between two individuals, identified as a taxi driver (speaking Russian) and another, in an urban setting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts two identical photo messages with the caption "Marathon 'Hundreds'" (referencing drones) showing burnt drones, and a follow-up message stating "For those who care - don't stand aside. The collection is sadly going poorly." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Рыбарь posts a text message: "The SMO changed a lot." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts two identical photo messages with the caption "Pavlo is very offended by the West, very. What happened?" (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Kotsnews posts two identical photo messages with a caption stating 84% of respondents couldn't name a hero of the Soviet-Japanese War, urging them to study history. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• UAF:

  • Air Defense: Operating under intense pressure, successfully intercepting a high volume of drones and missiles, but with confirmed fatalities and infrastructure damage. Has secured additional air defense systems from Nordic/Baltic partners. Confirmed a Molniya UAV hit a university in Kharkiv. UAF successfully downed a "Gerbera" reconnaissance drone. Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast. UAF claims significant destruction of RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. All incoming Shahed UAVs towards Odesa/Fontanka were successfully intercepted. UAF Air Force reports a high-speed target on Sumy. Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration reports two UAVs were shot down over the oblast. STERNENKO provides photos of a fire in an Odesa warehouse due to a drone attack, with DSNS reporting no casualties. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video showing damage to a warehouse and a cargo truck in Odesa due to an RF attack. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posts a photo message stating "84 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed." ASTRA reports that Ukraine's Air Force states Russia attacked with 112 UAVs overnight, and UAF neutralized 84 of them. RBC-Ukraine reports that UAF air defense neutralized 84 out of 112 drones overnight. Шеф Hayabusa posts photos of damage in Sloviansk after a night attack, confirming RF strikes. Шеф Hayabusa posts photos of damage in Odesa after Shahed attacks from "all sides," confirming widespread strikes and UAF defense. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for Chernihiv Oblast (Nizhyn district) regarding enemy strike UAVs. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for Chernihiv Oblast regarding enemy strike UAVs. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorod district) regarding enemy strike UAVs. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the destruction of an S-300V SAM system in the Zaporizhzhia direction by the "Lazar" Separate Special Purpose Regiment of the 27th Pecheneg National Guard Brigade. ASTRA reports one person killed, six injured after Russian strikes on Kharkiv Oblast, citing police. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV in the Black Sea waters near Odesa Oblast and advises seeking shelter if an alarm is announced. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for "Threat of ballistic weaponry from the south." 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues an "ATTENTION" alert for missile threat. Николаевский Ванёк reports "ballistics on Tuzly/Mykolaivka !!!" and "working with adjustment near Tuzly." STERNENKO reports "Ballistic threat from the south!" Николаевский Ванёк reports a repeat ballistic missile launch targeting Tuzly. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for Chernihiv Oblast regarding enemy strike UAVs. Николаевский Ванёк reports that the ballistic missile threat to Tuzly has been neutralized ("minus"). Оперативний ЗСУ (Militarny) reports UAF likely struck two RF radar complexes, RLC-1 "Navigation South," in Rostov region overnight. ASTRA reports three people were wounded in Zaporizhzhia city after a Russian drone attack. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for Sumy Oblast regarding enemy strike UAVs. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports three people wounded in Zaporizhzhia from an attack. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports one person wounded after an enemy attack on a utility company vehicle in Orikhiv. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports air raid alert lifted. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 and РБК-Україна report that the number of wounded in Zaporizhzhia city has increased to four following an enemy attack. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports one 53-year-old woman was wounded in Zaporizhzhia Raion following an enemy attack. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UAF source) provides an update on satellite images regarding strikes in Crimea, confirming likely hit on six hovercraft ("Flamingo" cruise missiles), visual confirmation for four, and one serviceman killed. ASTRA CONFIRMS UAF STRIKES ON CRIMEA BASE: ASTRA posts new satellite images confirming its information about the damage to boats and barracks at a Russian border base in annexed Crimea after a UAF attack. UAF Air Force reports threat of enemy strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast (Novgorod-Siversky district) and Sumy Oblast (Shostkinsky and Konotopsky districts). UAF Odesa Warehouse Damage (Photo): STERNENKO posts photo messages showing fragments of a downed Shahed drone that caused a fire in an Odesa warehouse. UAF Heavy Copters "Vampire" in Action (82nd Airmobile Brigade): BUTUSOV PLUS posts video about Ukrainian heavy copter pilots of the "Vampire" unit (82nd Airmobile Brigade) conducting night bombing missions. RF Bombing of Hospital/Village (Kostiantynivka): RBC-Ukraine reports RF dropped aerial bombs on a hospital in Kostiantynivka and a nearby village. UAF Air Force reports threat of enemy strike UAVs in Chernihiv Oblast (Priluksky district) and Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorodsky district). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF Air Force reports threats of RF strike UAVs in Poltava Oblast (Lubny district) and aviation weapon use in Dnipropetrovsk (Synelnykivskyi district) and Zaporizhzhia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues a new missile alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF Air Force reports new strike UAVs from the Black Sea on course for Odesa Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports new Shahed threats to Odesa Oblast in broad daylight, indicating the persistent nature of the threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO claims "WU Samurai" shot down 2 "Gerbera" (reconnaissance drones) and 1 "Lancet" (loitering munition), demonstrating continued UAF counter-UAS effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Air raid alert lifted for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: РБК-Україна reports another explosion in Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: РБК-Україна reports the number of wounded from the missile strike on the outskirts of Chernihiv has increased to 5. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast (Shostkinsky and Konotopsky districts) and Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Sumy Oblast (Romensky district) and Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkiv district). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Syrsky is creating an echeloned system to counter enemy "Shaheds." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ground Forces: Maintaining defensive posture under intense pressure in Sieversk and Kupyansk. Denying significant RF breakthroughs despite intense pressure. UAF denies RF control of Kupyansk city center, confirming only infiltration attempts that are being countered. Oleg Synegubov's working trip highlights the severity and focus on this direction. UAF is rapidly restoring power in Lozovsky district after RF shelling, demonstrating quick response capabilities. Repelling RF forces near Tovste. Employing tactical deception and actively countering enemy infiltration attempts. Pioneering ground robotics for combat, evacuation, and logistics (3rd Assault Brigade "NC13"). Destroying RF artillery, vehicles, antennas, and infantry with drone and artillery strikes. UAF special forces (Shybenyk Squad, 2nd Assault Company, Kraken) are conducting "rusorez" operations in Sumy Oblast. UAF forces are observing and adapting to RF use of anti-thermal imaging cloaks. UAF forces successfully destroyed a Russian engineering vehicle (likely AVLB). UAF General Staff reports an additional +840 RF personnel losses. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 487 strikes on 11 settlements. Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih as "controlled." General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine photo message displays a tactical map. STERNENKO reports "did not meet the norm for 'rusorez'" yesterday. OTU "Kharkiv" posts an updated image of estimated RF combat losses from 24.02.22 to 04.09.25. 46th Separate Airmobile Podilsky Brigade of the Airborne Assault Forces of Ukraine posts a photo message with a caption for drone operators. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts a video about training soldiers to counter enemy drones. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports Kharkiv city and 11 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» posts a video claiming to have captured a Russian assault trooper from Kursk. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 posts a video showing aerial footage of military vehicles being struck by artillery and Ukrainian military insignia, with a call for drones. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that RF forces have carried out their largest regrouping since the 2022 Kyiv battles, amassing a large number of forces for a "final, decisive battle" for the rest of Donetsk Oblast. RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia is preparing a new offensive against Ukraine, citing Bloomberg. UAF General Staff reports repelling 5 RF army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. Сили оборони Півдня України posts a photo message stating they continue to strike enemy deployment locations, firing positions, and rear areas, with an image of a mortar crew in action. Оперативний ЗСУ reports RF losses on the Pokrovsk direction of between 150-200 casualties over a period of time, with the direction remaining the hottest part of the front. Another report states 60,000 "rashists" lost on the Pokrovsk direction over 10 months. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photo messages showing UAF personnel engaged in direct fire with a large caliber weapon. STERNENKO posts a video claiming a group from the 3rd Special Operations Forces Regiment "POPRYVSSE" destroyed and then set fire to an enemy Mavic drone operator's shelter in the Pokrovsk direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video from the cockpit of a Ukrainian MiG-29 during a bomb drop on occupier positions. Народная милиция ДНР posts a video claiming the destruction of AFU positions, PVD (forward operating base), and a communication antenna by forces of the 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (orb) in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. MoD Russia posts a video claiming a crew of 2S44 Giatsint-K self-propelled artillery systems obliterated a concealed UAV command post and strongholds of the AFU in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video showing three individuals, interpreted as RF infiltration attempts using thermal-evading cloaks, being targeted. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a map-based photo message regarding the Lyman direction. OTУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides an informational message regarding the situation in the areas of responsibility of subordinate military units as of 04.09.2025. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА posts multiple photo messages from a "working trip to Kupyansk region – our most difficult direction," showing UAF officials/military personnel examining tablets and discussing. UAF General Staff posts photos of soldiers training on the Dnipro River. UAF ОТУ "Харків" posts a video claiming 4 accurate strikes by the "STRIX" unit in the Southern Slobozhansky direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video alleging a Russian occupier riding a motorcycle was targeted by a kamikaze drone. UKRAINE - DESERTION POLICY CHANGE: RBC-Ukraine reports Ukraine will simplify the return to service after unauthorized absence (СЗЧ). UAF FPV DRONE STRIKE (POKROVSK DIRECTION): STERNENKO posts a video claiming another motorcyclist with a sidecar was destroyed by an FPV drone in the Pokrovsk direction. UAF GENERAL STAFF MORALE/IO: UAF General Staff posts multiple photo messages (#Воїни_Думки #Воїни_Слова). UAF DESERTION POLICY REVERSAL: UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a photo message stating that the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) is reinstating criminal liability for unauthorized absence (СЗЧ). UK MILITARY AID FROM FROZEN ASSETS: UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports that Britain has directed over £1 billion (1.3 billion $) from frozen Russian assets to military aid for Ukraine. UAF POW FAMILY MEETING: The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War posts a photo message about an online meeting with families of servicemen from the 19th Separate Rifle Battalion. UAF DOMESTIC MISSILE DEVELOPMENT (FLAMINGO): RBC-Ukraine reports the "Flamingo" manufacturer announced development of new missiles with a range of up to 855 km. UKRAINIAN POLICE ACTIVITY (ROUTINE): Oleksiy Biloshitsky posts a video of Ukrainian police conducting a routine traffic stop. UAF POW FAMILY MEETING (119TH TEROBRIGADE): The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War posts photo messages about a meeting with families of servicemen from the 119th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade of Ukraine. UAF IO - RF "OPPOSITION" SOLDIER (MURAT MUKASHEV) LIQUIDATED: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a photo message on Murat Mukashev, an alleged Navalny supporter who opposed the war, was imprisoned for drugs, then joined RF assault troops and was liquidated in Kharkiv Oblast. UAF Kharkiv Prosecutor's Office Uncovers New Abuses: The UAF Prosecutor General's Office in Kharkiv Oblast has uncovered new abuses. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video demonstrating FPV drones designed to be resistant to RF EW, with potential large, cone-shaped munitions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RBC-Ukraine reports fire opened on a TCC group in a village near Lutsk, indicating potential resistance or internal security incidents in Volyn Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF attacked a hospital in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Oblast. In Illinivka, 2 people died from strikes, prompting UAF to document and highlight these war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Zelenskyy and Macron are holding a live press conference in Paris following meetings of the "Coalition of the Willing," indicating continued high-level diplomatic engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Zelenskyy states Putin will use his China visit as permission to continue the war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Zelenskyy says all partners understand that security guarantees for Ukraine must be voted on at the parliamentary level, and EU membership is a separate point. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ASTRA posts a video of Zelenskyy discussing the basis for security guarantees, focusing on increasing armament production in Europe, including air and ballistic missile defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports working with the Minister of Defense on the Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ reports up to 30,000 foreign soldiers for Ukraine from the "Coalition of the Willing." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO posts a video of an FPV drone strike on RF positions and vehicles in the Zaporizhzhia direction, with Ronin insignia, indicating active counter-attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) reports a meeting between Secretary Dmytro Usov and representatives of the US Embassy in Ukraine, signaling continued diplomatic and humanitarian engagement on POW issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RBC-Ukraine reports Zelenskyy and Macron's briefing following the "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting, highlighting key statements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Операция Z video captures Zelenskyy and Macron at a joint press conference, discussing "allied military presence in Ukraine (air, sea, land)" and EU membership as security guarantees. Zelenskyy / Official and KMVA also post photos and captions on the "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting, with over 30 countries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video of TCC and National Police groups working with body cameras during public notification efforts, highlighting transparency. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна reports "Резерв+" expanded functions, including online payment of fines, indicating administrative reforms for mobilization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts photos of a meeting with the command staff of the Security and Defense Forces of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating high-level coordination and UAF active presence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video of "Phoenix" unit (BAS) destroying an RF tank, artillery, a ground robotic complex, and personnel, demonstrating continued UAF precision strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Олександр Вілкул provides a briefing summary for Kryvyi Rih for 04 SEP 25, indicating continued local UAF command oversight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ reports Germany will decide on military involvement in Ukraine later, and the level of engagement will depend on the US contribution to the "Coalition of the Willing." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна reports the US and EU will discuss sanctions against Russian oil and gas within 24 hours. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts about a four-year prison sentence for "peaceful preaching," which if in Ukraine, would indicate potential internal human rights concerns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна reports an interim measure was chosen for SBU General Vityuk, indicating ongoing legal/anti-corruption proceedings within UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports that four UAF soldiers on their first mission captured nine RF soldiers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, posts a photo message stating that power is being reconnected to residents of Lozovsky district after a night enemy shelling. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts photos of a meeting between the regional leadership and representatives of JERU, titled "Joint steps for development." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: STERNENKO posts two identical video messages with the caption "It's hot in the Sieversk direction. Apachi unit destroys the enemy attacking." The video shows a drone strike on a trench/dugout ("Cannon in the dugout"), a motorcycle, and a building, with thermal imaging afterwards. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: UAF War Crime Documentation: ASTRA posts two identical video messages with the caption "Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office investigates torture and robbery by 'Akhmat' in occupied Kherson in 2022," detailing alleged abuses by Russian soldiers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: UAF Operational Updates: Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS amplify a Financial Times report that the U.S. will cut defense aid for Russia-bordering countries, highlighting the implications for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Naval Forces: Demonstrated capability to conduct successful strikes against RF Black Sea Fleet assets. Ukraine has launched its largest port investment project. Groups of RF UAVs inbound from the Black Sea towards Odesa/Fontanka were all successfully intercepted. RBC-Ukraine video and photos show the aftermath of drone attacks on Odesa. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV in the Black Sea waters near Odesa Oblast, with means engaged for shooting it down. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UAF source) provides an update on satellite images regarding strikes in Crimea, confirming likely hit on six hovercraft ("Flamingo" cruise missiles), visual confirmation for four, and one serviceman killed. ASTRA CONFIRMS UAF STRIKES ON CRIMEA BASE: ASTRA posts new satellite images confirming its information about the damage to boats and barracks at a Russian border base in annexed Crimea after a UAF attack.
  • Information Environment: Actively engaging in diplomatic efforts for support. Implementing internal reforms. Recruiting drone operators. Bolstering morale. Countering RF narratives. Providing humanitarian aid. Promoting domestic defense production. New statement of resolve to "achieve all goals with weapons." Focusing on Kyiv housing/infrastructure restoration. Reporting fire extinguished in Kalush. UAF is using air situation maps to inform the public. UAF is also engaging in discussions about future regulations for men exiting Ukraine. UAF is using the destroyed S-300 and radar for IO. UAF is issuing urgent warnings about incoming drone threats to Odesa. The successful neutralization of all incoming UAVs targeting Odesa/Chornomorsk and other regions provides a strong counter-narrative. UAF leadership is now openly discussing a "frozen conflict" scenario with a pragmatic outlook. UAF Air Force is providing real-time public updates. Operational ZSU reports Zelenskyy's statement that "territorial concessions by Ukraine will open the way for Putin to attack Europe." TASS reports that the UK has sent over $1 billion from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. RBC-Ukraine reports Trump stated he seeks a peace agreement between Ukraine and RF, but Zelenskyy and Putin are "not yet ready" for negotiations. ASTRA reports China has not confirmed Putin's statements about "Power of Siberia-2." RBC-Ukraine reports Trump observed the military parade in Beijing with Putin. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo messages quoting Trump's statement on peace. STERNENKO posts photo messages about "Ukrposhta CEO Smelyansky." RBC-Ukraine posts a photo message about "Putin's youth army," alleging Kremlin coercion of Ukrainian children to serve Russia. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a series of memorial videos for fallen soldiers, along with a caption criticizing the exchange of a "son for a video." Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts a video about training soldiers to counter enemy drones. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports Kharkiv city and 11 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video showing damage to a warehouse and a cargo truck in Odesa due to an RF attack. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video claiming that drones attacked 17 Russian oil refineries in August, disabling 24.2% of RF's refining capacity. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація posts a video for a minute of silence. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a photo message. КМВА posts a photo message honoring fallen defenders from Kyiv. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a photo message about Ukraine honoring the fallen with a minute of silence daily at 9:00. Офіс Генерального прокурора posts a photo message for a nationwide minute of silence. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» posts a video claiming to have captured a Russian assault trooper from Kursk. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 posts a video showing aerial footage of military vehicles being struck by artillery and Ukrainian military insignia, with a call for drones. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posts a photo message stating "84 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed." Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Canada, following the EU, lowered the price cap on "Katsap" (derogatory for Russian) oil to $47.6 per barrel. STERNENKO posts a photo with a cartoon cat, indicating a YouTube payment received, and stating "a lot of morning coffee is flying towards 'rusorez'," likely a morale post about funding drone operations. Шеф Hayabusa posts a Ukrainian meme reacting positively to news of RF military developments. RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia is preparing a new offensive against Ukraine, citing Bloomberg. UAF General Staff reports repelling 5 RF army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. Сили оборони Півдня України posts a photo message stating they continue to strike enemy deployment locations, firing positions, and rear areas, with an image of a mortar crew in action. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video titled "You are a slave of the Russians!", depicting a verbal altercation between two men, one identified as Uzbek, related to work and nationality. Шеф Hayabusa posts a message quoting Ukrainian MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak, discussing internal Ukrainian political/economic developments. РБК-Україна reports the UK has directed $1.3 billion in revenue from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. РБК-Україна reports that the Russian economy has "zeroed out," with Sberbank's head announcing the beginning of stagnation. STERNENKO posts a video claiming "Russians are preparing our abducted children for war against Ukraine," with footage of youth military training and propaganda. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the completion of a pre-trial investigation into the death of an inmate at Kyiv pre-trial detention center, with indictments against 14 suspects. Оперативний ЗСУ reports RF losses on the Pokrovsk direction of between 150-200 casualties over a period of time, with the direction remaining the hottest part of the front. Another report states 60,000 "rashists" lost on the Pokrovsk direction over 10 months. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photo messages showing UAF personnel engaged in direct fire with a large caliber weapon. STERNENKO posts a video claiming a group from the 3rd Special Operations Forces Regiment "POPRYVSSE" destroyed and then set fire to an enemy Mavic drone operator's shelter in the Pokrovsk direction. РБК-Україна reports Macron stated that the preparation of security guarantees for Ukraine is complete. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video from the cockpit of a Ukrainian MiG-29 during a bomb drop on occupier positions. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues an "ATTENTION" alert for missile threat. Николаевский Ванёк reports "ballistics on Tuzly/Mykolaivka !!!" and "working with adjustment near Tuzly." STERNENKO reports "Ballistic threat from the south!" ТАСС reports Germany will propose strengthening Ukraine's air defense and providing equipment for four mechanized brigades at the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting in Paris. РБК-Україна reports the dollar depreciated in exchange offices. Оперативний ЗСУ (Militarny) reports UAF likely struck two RF radar complexes, RLC-1 "Navigation South," in Rostov region overnight. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports 139 children from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast were sent to Zakarpattia and Kyiv oblasts for recreation. ASTRA reports three people were wounded in Zaporizhzhia city after a Russian drone attack. ASTRA reports London sent £1 billion in weapons to Kyiv using frozen Russian assets. ASTRA reports approximately 90 Ukrainians are held in "prison-like conditions" near Smolensk, awaiting deportation, including women and individuals with AIDS, describing severe lack of internet access and poor health conditions. STERNENKO reports the head of Sberbank stated the Russian economy entered "technical stagnation" and is "moving towards zero indicators." 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports three people wounded in Zaporizhzhia from an attack. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports one person wounded after an enemy attack on a utility company vehicle in Orikhiv. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports air raid alert lifted. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 and РБК-Україна report that the number of wounded in Zaporizhzhia city has increased to four following an enemy attack. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports one 53-year-old woman was wounded in Zaporizhzhia Raion following an enemy attack. РБК-Україна reports the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) voted to resume direct broadcasts of its sessions. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) voted to resume direct broadcasts of its sessions. OTУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides an informational message regarding the situation in the areas of responsibility of subordinate military units as of 04.09.2025. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video showing the "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting in Paris. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video showing Zelenskyy and Macron arriving at Élysée Palace for "Coalition of the Willing" meeting. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 posts a photo of a gaming console winner for a donation to the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, demonstrating continued public support for UAF. РБК-Україна quotes NATO SecGen Rutte stating Russia has no right to decide on troop presence in Ukraine. STERNENKO reports that Russians are indeed preparing a new large-scale offensive in the east. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues an "ATTENTION" missile alert. РБК-Україна posts video of "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting starting in Paris. ASTRA reports 7 wounded in Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, from shelling. Оперативний ЗСУ quotes NATO SecGen Rutte on Russia not deciding about foreign troops in Ukraine. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts an anti-corruption guide from NAZK in comic format. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА posts multiple photo messages from a "working trip to Kupyansk region – our most difficult direction," including discussion of operational matters. ASTRA reports two killed and two wounded in Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast, from an "unknown device" explosion. UAF Оперативний ЗСУ reports Macron stated the "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting aims to "finalize reliable security guarantees for Ukraine." UAF ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video alleging that children abducted from occupied territories are being systematically prepared to fight against Ukraine. UAF РБК-Україна reports Mykolaiv will receive fresh water for the first time since 2022. UAF Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report a planned meeting between Zelenskyy and Witkoff in Paris. UAF Офіс Генерального прокурора reports uncovering officials from an enterprise supplying polymer products to Russia. UAF Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація posts a photo message about the 15th donor operation (transplantation) conducted in a frontline hospital this year. UAF STERNENKO posts a video of Macron at the "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting, stating they are finalizing reliable security guarantees for Ukraine. UAF Шеф Hayabusa posts a video of a soldier discussing common misconceptions about frontline life. Zelenskiy / Official and UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration post videos of President Zelenskyy meeting with French President Macron and other European leaders at the Élysée Palace in Paris. RBC-Ukraine reports that Witkoff, a participant in the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting, later left the event. Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU and National Police have detained 5 more agents who were involved in arson and sabotage in Ukraine on behalf of Russia. RBC-Ukraine quotes President Zelenskyy stating the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting aims to "fill security guarantees for Ukraine with real content long-term and ensure support for our Defense Forces now." KYIV CIVIL DEFENSE TRAINING: The Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) reports successful command exercises in a district. "COALITION OF THE WILLING" MEETING (PARIS): ASTRA reports (video) a meeting of the "Coalition of the Willing" is taking place in Paris with Zelenskyy. "COALITION OF THE WILLING" MEETING CONCLUDES: "Военкор Котенок" reports the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting concluded. RF IO - YOUTH SABOTAGE NARRATIVE: RF milblogger "Операция Z" (via Russkaya Vesna) posts photo messages from NYT claiming "Children on the front lines of a secret war: NYT revealed how teenagers are used for sabotage." UAF COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE SUCCESS (KYIV, LVIV, VOLYN): UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" posts photo messages claiming the detention of five Russian agents, three of whom are under 18, who were preparing terrorist acts and sabotage in Kyiv, Lviv, and Volyn Oblasts. ZELENSKYY-WITKOFF MEETING (PARIS): RBC-Ukraine reports that Witkoff and Zelenskyy will hold a meeting in Paris, citing Reuters. UAF GENERAL STAFF MORALE/IO: UAF General Staff posts multiple photo messages (#Воїни_Думки #Воїни_Слова). UAF DESERTION POLICY REVERSAL: UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a photo message stating that the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) is reinstating criminal liability for unauthorized absence (СЗЧ). UK MILITARY AID FROM FROZEN ASSETS: UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports that Britain has directed over £1 billion (1.3 billion $) from frozen Russian assets to military aid for Ukraine. UAF POW FAMILY MEETING: The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War posts a photo message about an online meeting with families of servicemen from the 19th Separate Rifle Battalion. UAF DOMESTIC MISSILE DEVELOPMENT (FLAMINGO): RBC-Ukraine reports the "Flamingo" manufacturer announced development of new missiles with a range of up to 855 km. UKRAINIAN POLICE ACTIVITY (ROUTINE): Oleksiy Biloshitsky posts a video of Ukrainian police conducting a routine traffic stop. UAF POW FAMILY MEETING (119TH TEROBRIGADE): The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War posts photo messages about a meeting with families of servicemen from the 119th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade of Ukraine. UAF IO - RF "OPPOSITION" SOLDIER (MURAT MUKASHEV) LIQUIDATED: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a photo message on Murat Mukashev, an alleged Navalny supporter who opposed the war, was imprisoned for drugs, then joined RF assault troops and was liquidated in Kharkiv Oblast. UAF Kharkiv Prosecutor's Office Uncovers New Abuses: The UAF Prosecutor General's Office in Kharkiv Oblast has uncovered new abuses. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video demonstrating FPV drones designed to be resistant to RF EW, with potential large, cone-shaped munitions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RBC-Ukraine reports fire opened on a TCC group in a village near Lutsk, indicating potential resistance or internal security incidents in Volyn Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF attacked a hospital in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Oblast. In Illinivka, 2 people died from strikes, prompting UAF to document and highlight these war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Zelenskyy and Macron are holding a live press conference in Paris following meetings of the "Coalition of the Willing," indicating continued high-level diplomatic engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Zelenskyy states Putin will use his China visit as permission to continue the war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Zelenskyy says all partners understand that security guarantees for Ukraine must be voted on at the parliamentary level, and EU membership is a separate point. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ASTRA posts a video of Zelenskyy discussing the basis for security guarantees, focusing on increasing armament production in Europe, including air and ballistic missile defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports working with the Minister of Defense on the Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ reports up to 30,000 foreign soldiers for Ukraine from the "Coalition of the Willing." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO posts a video of an FPV drone strike on RF positions and vehicles in the Zaporizhzhia direction, with Ronin insignia, indicating active counter-attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) reports a meeting between Secretary Dmytro Usov and representatives of the US Embassy in Ukraine, signaling continued diplomatic and humanitarian engagement on POW issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RBC-Ukraine reports Zelenskyy and Macron's briefing following the "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting, highlighting key statements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Операция Z video captures Zelenskyy and Macron at a joint press conference, discussing "allied military presence in Ukraine (air, sea, land)" and EU membership as security guarantees. Zelenskyy / Official and KMVA also post photos and captions on the "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting, with over 30 countries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video of TCC and National Police groups working with body cameras during public notification efforts, highlighting transparency. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна reports "Резерв+" expanded functions, including online payment of fines, indicating administrative reforms for mobilization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts photos of a meeting with the command staff of the Security and Defense Forces of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating high-level coordination and UAF active presence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video of "Phoenix" unit (BAS) destroying an RF tank, artillery, a ground robotic complex, and personnel, demonstrating continued UAF precision strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Олександр Вілкул provides a briefing summary for Kryvyi Rih for 04 SEP 25, indicating continued local UAF command oversight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ reports Germany will decide on military involvement in Ukraine later, and the level of engagement will depend on the US contribution to the "Coalition of the Willing." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна reports the US and EU will discuss sanctions against Russian oil and gas within 24 hours. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts about a four-year prison sentence for "peaceful preaching," which if in Ukraine, would indicate potential internal human rights concerns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна reports an interim measure was chosen for SBU General Vityuk, indicating ongoing legal/anti-corruption proceedings within UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports that four UAF soldiers on their first mission captured nine RF soldiers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, posts a photo message stating that power is being reconnected to residents of Lozovsky district after a night enemy shelling. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts photos of a meeting between the regional leadership and representatives of JERU, titled "Joint steps for development." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: РБК-Україна posts a daily summary: "War, Ukraine, world. What to pay attention to today." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: STERNENKO posts two identical video messages with the caption "It's hot in the Sieversk direction. Apachi unit destroys the enemy attacking." The video shows a drone strike on a trench/dugout ("Cannon in the dugout"), a motorcycle, and a building, with thermal imaging afterwards. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Naval Forces: Demonstrated capability to conduct successful strikes against RF Black Sea Fleet assets. Ukraine has launched its largest port investment project. Groups of RF UAVs inbound from the Black Sea towards Odesa/Fontanka were all successfully intercepted. RBC-Ukraine video and photos show the aftermath of drone attacks on Odesa. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV in the Black Sea waters near Odesa Oblast, with means engaged for shooting it down. КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UAF source) provides an update on satellite images regarding strikes in Crimea, confirming likely hit on six hovercraft ("Flamingo" cruise missiles), visual confirmation for four, and one serviceman killed. ASTRA CONFIRMS UAF STRIKES ON CRIMEA BASE: ASTRA posts new satellite images confirming its information about the damage to boats and barracks at a Russian border base in annexed Crimea after a UAF attack.
  • Information Environment: Actively engaging in diplomatic efforts for support. Implementing internal reforms. Recruiting drone operators. Bolstering morale. Countering RF narratives. Providing humanitarian aid. Promoting domestic defense production. New statement of resolve to "achieve all goals with weapons." Focusing on Kyiv housing/infrastructure restoration. Reporting fire extinguished in Kalush. UAF is using air situation maps to inform the public. UAF is also engaging in discussions about future regulations for men exiting Ukraine. UAF is using the destroyed S-300 and radar for IO. UAF is issuing urgent warnings about incoming drone threats to Odesa. The successful neutralization of all incoming UAVs targeting Odesa/Chornomorsk and other regions provides a strong counter-narrative. UAF leadership is now openly discussing a "frozen conflict" scenario with a pragmatic outlook. UAF Air Force is providing real-time public updates. Operational ZSU reports Zelenskyy's statement that "territorial concessions by Ukraine will open the way for Putin to attack Europe." TASS reports that the UK has sent over $1 billion from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. RBC-Ukraine reports Trump stated he seeks a peace agreement between Ukraine and RF, but Zelenskyy and Putin are "not yet ready" for negotiations. ASTRA reports China has not confirmed Putin's statements about "Power of Siberia-2." RBC-Ukraine reports Trump observed the military parade in Beijing with Putin. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo messages quoting Trump's statement on peace. STERNENKO posts photo messages about "Ukrposhta CEO Smelyansky." RBC-Ukraine posts a photo message about "Putin's youth army," alleging Kremlin coercion of Ukrainian children to serve Russia. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a series of memorial videos for fallen soldiers, along with a caption criticizing the exchange of a "son for a video." Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts a video about training soldiers to counter enemy drones. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports Kharkiv city and 11 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video showing damage to a warehouse and a cargo truck in Odesa due to an RF attack. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video claiming that drones attacked 17 Russian oil refineries in August, disabling 24.2% of RF's refining capacity. Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація posts a video for a minute of silence. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a photo message. КМВА posts a photo message honoring fallen defenders from Kyiv. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a photo message about Ukraine honoring the fallen with a minute of silence daily at 9:00. Офіс Генерального прокурора posts a photo message for a nationwide minute of silence. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» posts a video claiming to have captured a Russian assault trooper from Kursk. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 posts a video showing aerial footage of military vehicles being struck by artillery and Ukrainian military insignia, with a call for drones. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posts a photo message stating "84 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed." Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Canada, following the EU, lowered the price cap on "Katsap" (derogatory for Russian) oil to $47.6 per barrel. STERNENKO posts a photo with a cartoon cat, indicating a YouTube payment received, and stating "a lot of morning coffee is flying towards 'rusorez'," likely a morale post about funding drone operations. Шеф Hayabusa posts a Ukrainian meme reacting positively to news of RF military developments. RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia is preparing a new offensive against Ukraine, citing Bloomberg. UAF General Staff reports repelling 5 RF army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. Сили оборони Півдня України posts a photo message stating they continue to strike enemy deployment locations, firing positions, and rear areas, with an image of a mortar crew in action. Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video titled "You are a slave of the Russians!", depicting a verbal altercation between two men, one identified as Uzbek, related to work and nationality. Шеф Hayabusa posts a message quoting Ukrainian MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak, discussing internal Ukrainian political/economic developments. РБК-Україна reports the UK has directed $1.3 billion in revenue from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. РБК-Україна reports that the Russian economy has "zeroed out," with Sberbank's head announcing the beginning of stagnation. STERNENKO posts a video claiming "Russians are preparing our abducted children for war against Ukraine," with footage of youth military training and propaganda. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the completion of a pre-trial investigation into the death of an inmate at Kyiv pre-trial detention center, with indictments against 14 suspects. Оперативний ЗСУ reports RF losses on the Pokrovsk direction of between 150-200 casualties over a period of time, with the direction remaining the hottest part of the front. Another report states 60,000 "rashists" lost on the Pokrovsk direction over 10 months. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photo messages showing UAF personnel engaged in direct fire with a large caliber weapon. STERNENKO posts a video claiming a group from the 3rd Special Operations Forces Regiment "POPRYVSSE" destroyed and then set fire to an enemy Mavic drone operator's shelter in the Pokrovsk direction. РБК-Україна reports Macron stated that the preparation of security guarantees for Ukraine is complete. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video from the cockpit of a Ukrainian MiG-29 during a bomb drop on occupier positions. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues an "ATTENTION" alert for missile threat. Николаевский Ванёк reports "ballistics on Tuzly/Mykolaivka !!!" and "working with adjustment near Tuzly." STERNENKO reports "Ballistic threat from the south!" ТАСС reports Germany will propose strengthening Ukraine's air defense and providing equipment for four mechanized brigades at the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting in Paris. РБК-Україна reports the dollar depreciated in exchange offices. Оперативний ЗСУ (Militarny) reports UAF likely struck two RF radar complexes, RLC-1 "Navigation South," in Rostov region overnight. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports 139 children from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast were sent to Zakarpattia and Kyiv oblasts for recreation. ASTRA reports three people were wounded in Zaporizhzhia city after a Russian drone attack. ASTRA reports London sent £1 billion in weapons to Kyiv using frozen Russian assets. ASTRA reports approximately 90 Ukrainians are held in "prison-like conditions" near Smolensk, awaiting deportation, including women and individuals with AIDS, describing severe lack of internet access and poor health conditions. STERNENKO reports the head of Sberbank stated the Russian economy entered "technical stagnation" and is "moving towards zero indicators." 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports three people wounded in Zaporizhzhia from an attack. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports one person wounded after an enemy attack on a utility company vehicle in Orikhiv. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports air raid alert lifted. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 and РБК-Україна report that the number of wounded in Zaporizhzhia city has increased to four following an enemy attack. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports one 53-year-old woman was wounded in Zaporizhzhia Raion following an enemy attack. РБК-Україна reports the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) voted to resume direct broadcasts of its sessions. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) voted to resume direct broadcasts of its sessions. OTУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides an informational message regarding the situation in the areas of responsibility of subordinate military units as of 04.09.2025. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video showing the "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting in Paris. Оперативний ЗСУ posts video showing Zelenskyy and Macron arriving at Élysée Palace for "Coalition of the Willing" meeting. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 posts a photo of a gaming console winner for a donation to the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, demonstrating continued public support for UAF. РБК-Україна quotes NATO SecGen Rutte stating Russia has no right to decide on troop presence in Ukraine. STERNENKO reports that Russians are indeed preparing a new large-scale offensive in the east. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues an "ATTENTION" missile alert. РБК-Україна posts video of "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting starting in Paris. ASTRA reports 7 wounded in Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, from shelling. Оперативний ЗСУ quotes NATO SecGen Rutte on Russia not deciding about foreign troops in Ukraine. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts an anti-corruption guide from NAZK in comic format. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА posts multiple photo messages from a "working trip to Kupyansk region – our most difficult direction," including discussion of operational matters. ASTRA reports two killed and two wounded in Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast, from an "unknown device" explosion. UAF Оперативний ЗСУ reports Macron stated the "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting aims to "finalize reliable security guarantees for Ukraine." UAF ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video alleging that children abducted from occupied territories are being systematically prepared to fight against Ukraine. UAF РБК-Україна reports Mykolaiv will receive fresh water for the first time since 2022. UAF Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report a planned meeting between Zelenskyy and Witkoff in Paris. UAF Офіс Генерального прокурора reports uncovering officials from an enterprise supplying polymer products to Russia. UAF Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація posts a photo message about the 15th donor operation (transplantation) conducted in a frontline hospital this year. UAF STERNENKO posts a video of Macron at the "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting, stating they are finalizing reliable security guarantees for Ukraine. UAF Шеф Hayabusa posts a video of a soldier discussing common misconceptions about frontline life. Zelenskiy / Official and UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration post videos of President Zelenskyy meeting with French President Macron and other European leaders at the Élysée Palace in Paris. RBC-Ukraine reports that Witkoff, a participant in the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting, later left the event. Оперативний ЗСУ reports SBU and National Police have detained 5 more agents who were involved in arson and sabotage in Ukraine on behalf of Russia. RBC-Ukraine quotes President Zelenskyy stating the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting aims to "fill security guarantees for Ukraine with real content long-term and ensure support for our Defense Forces now." KYIV CIVIL DEFENSE TRAINING: The Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) reports successful command exercises in a district. "COALITION OF THE WILLING" MEETING (PARIS): ASTRA reports (video) a meeting of the "Coalition of the Willing" is taking place in Paris with Zelenskyy. "COALITION OF THE WILLING" MEETING CONCLUDES: "Военкор Котенок" reports the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting concluded. RF IO - YOUTH SABOTAGE NARRATIVE: RF milblogger "Операция Z" (via Russkaya Vesna) posts photo messages from NYT claiming "Children on the front lines of a secret war: NYT revealed how teenagers are used for sabotage." UAF COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE SUCCESS (KYIV, LVIV, VOLYN): UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" posts photo messages claiming the detention of five Russian agents, three of whom are under 18, who were preparing terrorist acts and sabotage in Kyiv, Lviv, and Volyn Oblasts. ZELENSKYY-WITKOFF MEETING (PARIS): RBC-Ukraine reports that Witkoff and Zelenskyy will hold a meeting in Paris, citing Reuters. UAF GENERAL STAFF MORALE/IO: UAF General Staff posts multiple photo messages (#Воїни_Думки #Воїни_Слова). UAF DESERTION POLICY REVERSAL: UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a photo message stating that the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) is reinstating criminal liability for unauthorized absence (СЗЧ). UK MILITARY AID FROM FROZEN ASSETS: UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports that Britain has directed over £1 billion (1.3 billion $) from frozen Russian assets to military aid for Ukraine. UAF POW FAMILY MEETING: The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War posts a photo message about an online meeting with families of servicemen from the 19th Separate Rifle Battalion. UAF DOMESTIC MISSILE DEVELOPMENT (FLAMINGO): RBC-Ukraine reports the "Flamingo" manufacturer announced development of new missiles with a range of up to 855 km. UKRAINIAN POLICE ACTIVITY (ROUTINE): Oleksiy Biloshitsky posts a video of Ukrainian police conducting a routine traffic stop. UAF POW FAMILY MEETING (119TH TEROBRIGADE): The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War posts photo messages about a meeting with families of servicemen from the 119th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade of Ukraine. UAF IO - RF "OPPOSITION" SOLDIER (MURAT MUKASHEV) LIQUIDATED: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a photo message on Murat Mukashev, an alleged Navalny supporter who opposed the war, was imprisoned for drugs, then joined RF assault troops and was liquidated in Kharkiv Oblast. UAF Kharkiv Prosecutor's Office Uncovers New Abuses: The UAF Prosecutor General's Office in Kharkiv Oblast has uncovered new abuses. UAF Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video demonstrating FPV drones designed to be resistant to RF EW, with potential large, cone-shaped munitions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RBC-Ukraine reports fire opened on a TCC group in a village near Lutsk, indicating potential resistance or internal security incidents in Volyn Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF attacked a hospital in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Oblast. In Illinivka, 2 people died from strikes, prompting UAF to document and highlight these war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Zelenskyy and Macron are holding a live press conference in Paris following meetings of the "Coalition of the Willing," indicating continued high-level diplomatic engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Zelenskyy states Putin will use his China visit as permission to continue the war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Zelenskyy says all partners understand that security guarantees for Ukraine must be voted on at the parliamentary level, and EU membership is a separate point. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ASTRA posts a video of Zelenskyy discussing the basis for security guarantees, focusing on increasing armament production in Europe, including air and ballistic missile defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports working with the Minister of Defense on the Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ reports up to 30,000 foreign soldiers for Ukraine from the "Coalition of the Willing." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO posts a video of an FPV drone strike on RF positions and vehicles in the Zaporizhzhia direction, with Ronin insignia, indicating active counter-attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) reports a meeting between Secretary Dmytro Usov and representatives of the US Embassy in Ukraine, signaling continued diplomatic and humanitarian engagement on POW issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RBC-Ukraine reports Zelenskyy and Macron's briefing following the "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting, highlighting key statements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Операция Z video captures Zelenskyy and Macron at a joint press conference, discussing "allied military presence in Ukraine (air, sea, land)" and EU membership as security guarantees. Zelenskyy / Official and KMVA also post photos and captions on the "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting, with over 30 countries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts a video of TCC and National Police groups working with body cameras during public notification efforts, highlighting transparency. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна reports "Резерв+" expanded functions, including online payment of fines, indicating administrative reforms for mobilization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) 🇺🇦 Запорізька облабна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts photos of a meeting with the command staff of the Security and Defense Forces of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating high-level coordination and UAF active presence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video of "Phoenix" unit (BAS) destroying an RF tank, artillery, a ground robotic complex, and personnel, demonstrating continued UAF precision strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Олександр Вілкул provides a briefing summary for Kryvyi Rih for 04 SEP 25, indicating continued local UAF command oversight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Оперативний ЗСУ reports Germany will decide on military involvement in Ukraine later, and the level of engagement will depend on the US contribution to the "Coalition of the Willing." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна reports the US and EU will discuss sanctions against Russian oil and gas within 24 hours. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts about a four-year prison sentence for "peaceful preaching," which if in Ukraine, would indicate potential internal human rights concerns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) РБК-Україна reports an interim measure was chosen for SBU General Vityuk, indicating ongoing legal/anti-corruption proceedings within UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports that four UAF soldiers on their first mission captured nine RF soldiers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, posts a photo message stating that power is being reconnected to residents of Lozovsky district after a night enemy shelling. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts photos of a meeting between the regional leadership and representatives of JERU, titled "Joint steps for development." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: РБК-Україна posts a daily summary: "War, Ukraine, world. What to pay attention to today." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: STERNENKO posts two identical video messages with the caption "It's hot in the Sieversk direction. Apachi unit destroys the enemy attacking." The video shows a drone strike on a trench/dugout ("Cannon in the dugout"), a motorcycle, and a building, with thermal imaging afterwards. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:

  • Sustained and Adaptive Multi-Domain Strikes: RF continues persistent missile and drone strikes targeting Ukraine's defense industry, fuel infrastructure, and railway infrastructure. Civilian casualties remain a consequence of these strikes, with new confirmed casualties in Zaporizhzhia (4 wounded), Orikhiv (2 wounded), and Druzhkivka (7 wounded), as well as two killed and two wounded in Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast. RF demonstrates the ability to adapt its targeting (e.g., UAF UAV operator locations, UAV launch points, educational institutions, humanitarian demining missions, and now potentially TCC groups). The volume of drone attacks remains high (112 UAVs overnight), demonstrating capacity for large-scale, coordinated air strikes against urban infrastructure, despite UAF interceptions. RF maintains robust air defense capabilities (claiming 46 UAF UAVs shot down, as well as new "small air defense" capabilities, and showcased Shilka AA systems in IO). RF continues to test missile/rocket launch capabilities and employs heavy unguided munitions like FAB-3000. RF also uses advanced EW capabilities to counter UAF drones. RF is capable of striking deep into Ukrainian territory, as evidenced by drone attacks on RF oil refineries in August. Rybar's "Eyes on Orbit" videos could be intended to demonstrate RF's continued military prowess and a deterrent capability. Два майора's video showing an aerial strike on a small boat indicates RF's capability for targeted strikes on watercraft and personnel in riverine/coastal environments. MoD Russia's claim of neutralizing a Bradley IFV indicates RF's continued ATGM effectiveness against armored vehicles and ground targets. MoD Russia's claimed strike on UAF UAV command post and strongholds in Krasnoarmeysk direction indicates an intent to directly degrade UAF C2 and fortified positions. The КАБ launches on Kharkiv Oblast indicate an intent to expand the deep strike campaign to further degrade UAF's ability to defend its northern territories and support ongoing ground operations. Народная милиция ДНР's claimed destruction of AFU positions, PVD, and antenna by 68th orb indicates RF's persistent capability for reconnaissance and targeted strikes against UAF forward positions and communication infrastructure. Два майора's video claiming a Lancet strike on UAF artillery in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, followed by an aerial strike, clearly demonstrates RF's continued capability for precision loitering munition attacks against UAF artillery assets, using real-time ISR. Colonelcassad's video from Bryansk border region, showing drone reconnaissance of a communication tower (identifying communication system, transformer), a mortar position, and vehicles, followed by aerial strikes, illustrates RF's layered ISR and strike capability, including against potential cross-border incursions or support infrastructure. Colonelcassad's video claiming Russian helicopter crews struck a UAV command post on the Kupyansk tactical direction. This demonstrates RF's capability to deploy rotary-wing assets for targeted strikes against UAF UAV C2, even in contested urban areas. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video from Krasnodar Krai and Rostov Oblast shows distant explosions, confirming UAF's continued capability to conduct deep strikes into RF territory. Kotsnews videos demonstrate RF's sustained artillery capabilities, showing self-propelled howitzers firing and impacts on UAF positions/infrastructure. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video from a Russian military vehicle's dashcam showing a Ukrainian "Bulava" drone hitting the car. This further confirms UAF's capability for targeted drone strikes on RF ground vehicles. TASS video reports "Rubikon" operators struck 6 AFU armored vehicles and 3 Starlink stations. RBC-Ukraine reports that Sumy and its district are without electricity due to a Russian army strike on critical infrastructure. RF MOD - UKRAINIAN DRG DESTROYED (DNIPRO RIVER): TASS reports the RF Ministry of Defense states a Ukrainian DRG that attempted to land in the island zone of the Dnipro River was destroyed. RF DRONE STRIKE (WOODED AREA): "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts a video with the caption "Target destroyed, no survivors." RF - PZBH 2000 HOWITZER DESTROYED: "Воин DV" posts a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer in a wooded area. TASS - RF MOD CLAIMS DRG DESTRUCTION: TASS posts a video with the caption "Footage of the destruction of a Ukrainian DRG attempting to land in the island zone of the Dnipro." RF ANIMATED STRIKE SCHEME: Colonelcassad posts an animated scheme of RF strikes on Ukrainian territory from 03-04 SEP 25, detailing widespread drone and UMPK glide bomb strikes across multiple oblasts. RF VIDEO - NOVOSELIVKA (DNIPROPETROVSK) "LIBERATION": TASS posts video footage showing aerial reconnaissance with explosions and military vehicles, confirming RF's capability for combined arms operations involving air and ground assets. UAF STRIKE ON RF TANK/ARTILLERY/ROBOTIC COMPLEX (DONETSK): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video claiming Phoenix unit operators of the State Border Guard Service (DPSU) destroyed an RF tank, artillery piece, and ground robotic complex in Donetsk Oblast. RF Ballistic Missile Strike on Humanitarian Mission (Chernihiv): The confirmed ballistic missile strike on humanitarian demining personnel in Chernihiv demonstrates RF's capability to conduct precision strikes (albeit potentially misidentified targets) against non-military, high-visibility targets, and highlights the risk of such operations. RF "Rubikon" PVO Combat Groups with Recon Drones: Colonelcassad's video demonstrates RF's capability to deploy specialized air defense combat groups ("Rubikon") that integrate various reconnaissance drones (Leleka-100, Chaklun) for surveillance, potentially for early warning or targeting of UAF air assets. RF Air/Drone Strike on UAF Buggy: Voin DV posts video claiming operators of the 69th Cover Brigade of the "Vostok" Group of Forces struck an enemy buggy. RF Bombing of Hospital/Village (Kostiantynivka): RBC-Ukraine reports RF dropped aerial bombs on a hospital in Kostiantynivka and a nearby village. RF's ability to launch drones that violate Polish airspace indicates a reach and potential disregard for sovereign borders that could escalate regional tensions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The confirmed strike on a hospital in Kostiantynivka demonstrates RF's continued capability and willingness to use aerial bombs indiscriminately against civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The Vostok Group of Forces is receiving DJI Mavic 3 drones, demonstrating RF's continued capability to procure and deploy COTS UAVs for combat support and reconnaissance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The new UAF Air Force report of a strike UAV threat in Poltava Oblast and aviation weapon use in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia indicates RF's continued capability to project drone and aviation threats across various regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF MoD claims destruction of a UAF long-range UAV preparation and launch point in Chernihiv Oblast with an Iskander OTRK. This indicates RF's capability for precision strikes using OTRKs and their intent to target UAF drone infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Dnipropetrovsk ODA reports Nikopol region suffered from RF FPV drones and artillery throughout the day, indicating RF's capability for sustained close-range drone and artillery fire against civilian settlements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a video claiming a ZALA Lancet identified camouflaged UAF artillery in Dnipropetropvska Oblast, followed by a strike, demonstrating RF's continued ISR-strike chain capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports the Lozovaya district substation on the Kupyansk direction was destroyed by RF forces, demonstrating capability to target UAF energy infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: The MoD Russia video claiming the elimination of a UAF UAV deploying area in Chernihiv region, showing a strike on vehicles, highlights RF's capability to conduct precision strikes using aerial assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Fighterbomber's video celebrating the Kazan Helicopter Plant projects RF's industrial and technological capacity for helicopter production, which supports military operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's videos from the Kharkiv direction, showing drone footage of destroyed UAF mortar positions, vehicles, and a downed 'Baba-Yaga' drone, demonstrate RF's continued capability for aerial reconnaissance and precision strikes against UAF ground assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: MoD Russia's video "Russian drone pilots lose no time" showcases FPV drone capabilities for ISR, target acquisition (armored vehicles, comms systems), and strike coordination, indicating sustained and advanced drone warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: TASS reports RF MOD claims shooting down four Ukrainian drones (two over Rostov, Belgorod, two over Black Sea), demonstrating RF's active air defense capabilities against cross-border UAV threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Concentrated Ground Offensive with Adaptive & Hybrid Tactics: RF can concentrate forces for localized gains and maintain intense pressure in urban environments (Kupyansk). DeepState confirms RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk. RF continues localized offensive actions on multiple axes (Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Yanvarske, Chervonaya Dibrova, Grigorievka, Pokrovsk). The adoption of anti-thermal imaging cloaks demonstrates an intent to circumvent UAF drone/thermal surveillance advantages. RF is preparing for a "final, decisive battle" for the rest of Donetsk Oblast, confirmed by Ukrainian and Finnish sources. RF milbloggers confirm active combat in the Pokrovsk direction and increased use of heavy equipment and small infantry groups for assaults on the Zaporizhzhia direction. RF also shows interest and potential in soldier enhancement technologies (Ant exoskeleton). RF is capable of promoting senior military officials to higher ranks, as seen with Magomed Daudov. "Operation Z" video of an FPV drone strike near Sumy border confirms active RF ground operations and drone use in the Sumy border region. Colonelcassad drone footage of high-precision strikes on UAF trench positions demonstrates RF's capability to systematically degrade UAF defenses to enable ground advances. Rybar's map-based analysis of the Shcherbinovka operations clearly indicates RF's capability to achieve tactical encirclement and territorial gains. Mash на Донбассе's video claiming the Russian army began assaulting Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicates RF's capability to launch ground assaults into new areas, supported by aerial assets. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF is using incendiary mixtures to set fires in LNR, implying RF's capability to detect and report such UAF tactics. Colonelcassad's video of alleged DRG capture in Bryansk Oblast demonstrates RF's counter-insurgency/counter-sabotage capabilities and border security. Воин DV posts a video claiming scouts located an enemy vehicle near Novoselivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, reflects RF's capability to conduct thorough reconnaissance ahead of or during offensive operations in that area. Воин DV (RF milblogger, Vostok Group of Forces) claims the "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, supported by video showing artillery strikes, damage, RF flags, and soldiers. This confirms RF's capability for significant territorial gains and offensive operations into new oblasts, potentially supported by heavy firepower. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's video, even from a UAF perspective, highlights RF's capability to employ anti-thermal cloaks for infiltration attempts, indicating an adaptive tactical approach. Два майора reports the "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by the "Vostok" Group of Forces, including unit identification (36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 29th Army). This indicates a specific RF unit with the capability to execute offensive ground operations, leading to claimed territorial gains. ТАСС reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have "liberated" Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This indicates RF's capability to conduct successful offensive operations and claim territorial gains in the Zaporizhzhia direction. Сливочный каприз's video from the Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka direction demonstrates RF's capability for combined arms operations involving aerial reconnaissance, artillery strikes, and ground movements to secure contested territory. ТАСС and Два майора report "complete liberation" of DNR territory" and continued offensive into Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. This indicates RF's capability to execute large-scale, multi-oblast offensive operations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF forces took control of a 5-hectare forest area in LNR, indicating capability for small-scale territorial gains. WarGonzo posts video of "Group Nemets" (291st Regiment) conducting drone reconnaissance and artillery strikes on UAF positions in Zaporizhzhia. Военкор Котенок confirms RF MoD claims of advancing "deep into enemy defenses" and "liberating" Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Colonelcassad posts video claiming "Vostok" Group of Forces liberated Novoselovka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) posts photo message of Leonid Slutsky visiting Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. Рыбарь posts a tactical map titled "Liberation of Novoselovka," depicting claimed RF advances and control. RF MoD claims the "Vostok" Group of Forces made ground and took Novoselovka under control in Dnepropetrovsk region. RF Kotsnews reports the Russian army liberated Novoselovka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF Alex Parker Returns reports two Ukrainian DRGs are being sought in Kaluga Oblast (Zhigra, Lyudinovo, Kirov regions). This indicates RF's capability for internal security operations against deep infiltration by UAF special forces. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts photo messages regarding the "Zaporizhzhia direction." БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video alleging a Russian occupier riding a motorcycle was targeted by a kamikaze drone. MoD Russia posts a photo message on the "progress of special military operation as of 4 September 2025." Два майора posts a series of photos, titled "Soldier's Daily Life," depicting a cat with camouflage gear and soldiers in a field environment. STERNENKO posts a video claiming another motorcyclist with a sidecar was destroyed by an FPV drone in the Pokrovsk direction. Colonelcassad posts a video claiming FPV drone crews of the RF 124th Separate Brigade of the RF Armed Forces consistently destroyed a Ukrainian DRG attempting to advance into the island zone of the Dnipro River. RF MOD - UKRAINIAN DRG DESTROYED (DNIPRO RIVER): TASS reports the RF Ministry of Defense states a Ukrainian DRG that attempted to land in the island zone of the Dnipro River was destroyed. RF - SUMY DIRECTION ADVANCE: Colonelcassad posts a video claiming "local advance in Yunakovka and front-line stability on the border" in the Sumy direction. RF - PZBH 2000 HOWITZER DESTROYED: "Воин DV" posts a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer. TASS - RF MOD CLAIMS DRG DESTRUCTION: TASS posts a video with the caption "Footage of the destruction of a Ukrainian DRG attempting to land in the island zone of the Dnipro." RF CONTROL OF DNIPRO DELTA ISLANDS (KHERSON): TASS reports that Saldo claims RF forces maintain control over islands in the Dnipro delta in Kherson Oblast. RF TACTICAL MAP - DONETSK/ZAPORIZHZHIA/DNIPROPETROVSK OFFENSIVE: Colonelcassad posts a tactical map claiming the front line after the "liberation" of the southwestern DNR, showing the offensive continuing into Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetropsk Oblasts. RF MILBLOGGER DRONE REQUEST: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video of an RF soldier requesting a Mavic 3 drone for reconnaissance and artillery spotting. UAF STRIKE ON RF TANK/ARTILLERY/ROBOTIC COMPLEX (DONETSK): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video claiming Phoenix unit operators of the State Border Guard Service (DPSU) destroyed an RF tank, artillery piece, and ground robotic complex in Donetsk Oblast. UAF FPV Drone Strike (Kherson): Шеф Hayabusa reports two RF occupiers were eliminated in the Kherson direction by an FPV drone strike. RF Air/Drone Strike on UAF Buggy (Vostok Group): Voin DV posts video claiming operators of the 69th Cover Brigade of the "Vostok" Group of Forces struck an enemy buggy. RF Bombing of Hospital/Village (Kostiantynivka): RBC-Ukraine reports RF dropped aerial bombs on a hospital in Kostiantynivka and a nearby village. RF MoD claims snipers of the 2nd Combined Arms Army (Tsentr Group of Forces) eliminated over 100 heavy strike drones of the AFU (referring to "Baba-Yaga" drones) in Krasnoarmeysk direction. RF Military Transportation Document Extension: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF MoD plans to increase the validity of military transportation documents from three to six months. UAF claims to have struck an RF ammunition depot in occupied Selydove. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF milblogger "Два майора" posts a map of the Zaporizhzhia front near Stepnohirsk. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO reports increased RF use of heavy equipment and small infantry groups for assaults on the Zaporizhzhia direction, supported by drone footage of strikes on RF positions and vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Finnish (Janus Putkonen) and Ukrainian sources (citing "Ukrainian propagandists") claim Russia has conducted its largest regrouping since 2022 and is ready for a decisive battle for Donbas, publishing intelligence maps. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad posts video of 155th Marine Brigade cadets undergoing an obstacle course, demonstrating physical fitness and teamwork, likely for morale/recruitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF fought Colombian mercenaries for two days, possibly as part of an IO effort to denigrate UAF and its foreign support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) MoD Russia reports servicemembers of the 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade (Vostok Group of Forces) are in Novoselovka, Dnipropetrovsk region. This confirms RF ground presence and activity on this new offensive axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports "active battles" in the Pokrovsko-Dobropolsk direction, indicating continued RF ground pressure and the capability to conduct sustained engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad posts a video showcasing the Russian NRTK "Courier" robotic platform equipped with a laser system for demining, demonstrating RF's capability to deploy advanced engineering systems for battlefield support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF observation and evacuation points were destroyed in the Druzhkovsky direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's videos from the Kharkiv direction, showing drone footage of destroyed UAF mortar positions, vehicles, and a downed 'Baba-Yaga' drone, demonstrate RF's continued capability for ground-support aerial reconnaissance and precision strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: STERNENKO's video from the Sieversk direction, showing drone strikes against a trench/dugout and a motorcycle, confirms ongoing heavy ground fighting in this area and UAF's active defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Comprehensive Information Warfare and Expanded Diplomatic Leverage: RF possesses robust capabilities to conduct diverse narrative campaigns, manipulate information, and engage in extensive diplomatic outreach (EEF, China, DPRK, "Taliban," Palestine, Russian-Arab summit). RF leverages both domestic and international platforms to project strength, economic resilience, and a multi-polar world order. RF actively counters Western narratives and exploits internal issues of Ukraine and Western countries. RF milbloggers play a significant role in disseminating IO and maintaining morale. RF is implementing internal security measures (SIM card control) and combatting internal threats (scammers). RF is capable of promoting senior military officials to higher ranks, as seen with Magomed Daudov. RF continues to project normalcy through civilian news (Aeroflot flights, mobile internet quality in Moscow, cultural events, celebrity news, Ozon re-registration). TASS reports FSB detained a 35-year-old SBU agent in Kherson Oblast, demonstrating RF's counter-intelligence capabilities and intent to suppress espionage. Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) reports Germany is discussing troop redeployment to Poland, which RF IO will use to fuel anti-NATO narratives. Север.Реалии reports statements at the EEF on "technical stagnation" and a decline comparable to the 1990s crisis in Russia, which RF IO could use to set expectations for its economic trajectory. ASTRA reports Z-propagandist Kashevarova claimed the formation of units from military personnel with hepatitis and HIV, who will be issued distinctive armbands. This indicates a potential RF capability to form specialized units from personnel with health conditions, and likely a highly controversial IO narrative to dehumanize these forces or provoke outrage. ТАСС reports Putin familiarized himself with an interactive presentation on the development of the Far East and received reports on work done. ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova stated at the EEF that "Russia once saved Germany. Now the German people must awaken and save themselves; the situation in the country is comparable to a pulled self-destruction pin." This demonstrates RF's aggressive, revisionist IO capabilities aimed at creating discord within NATO. ТАСС reports Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov stated at the EEF that the Russian economy is cooling faster than expected. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/ТИEDOTТЕЕТ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) posts a photo message implying a summit of "willing idiots" today discussing "Ukraine's guarantees." ТАСС reports Deputy Prime Minister Overchuk met with Afghanistan's Ambassador to Moscow Gul Hassan after an EEF session. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Kotsnews post photo messages promoting "Военкоры" (milbloggers). ТАСС reports Degtyarev, at the EEF session "Sports Diplomacy: New Challenges and Opportunities," stated that dozens of football (soccer) executives have changed their rhetoric on changing the limit for foreign players in the country's championship. ТАСС posts a video showing Putin with a delegation, including military personnel, observing urban development plans. ТАСС reports Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated that the Russian Federation observes that Ukraine and the EU currently lack the desire to seek peaceful resolutions to the crisis. ТАСС reports Moscow is ready to continue dialogue with Kyiv in Istanbul and is open to considering raising the level of delegations, according to Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin. Операция Z (via Russkaya Vesna) posts a photo message with "British circus: how The Times sculpts an 'unkillable hero' out of Filimonov," an IO piece against a Ukrainian figure. Рыбарь posts a photo message celebrating "Nuclear Support Specialist Day." Басурин о главном posts a video showing young contract soldiers learning first aid and evacuation techniques. Новости Москвы posts a video promoting the "Open Water" festival in Krylatskoye, Moscow. ТАСС reports Germany will propose strengthening Ukraine's air defense and providing equipment for four mechanized brigades at the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting in Paris. ТАСС reports Medvedev threatened to seize "British Crown valuables" in response to the UK transferring frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. Colonelcassad posts multiple videos showing humanitarian aid to RF soldiers and civilian medical facilities/families in Donetsk. Басурин о главном states, "Germany is on a dangerous path to war with Russia." Kotsnews posts a photo message with the caption, "How Europe will provoke a big war with Russia." Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message quoting Maria Zakharova stating Trump's main task is to "save America," and that his peace statements are "courageous." Новости Москвы reports Uniqlo may return to Russia. MoD Russia posts videos showing Putin touring a military-patriotic education center and an interactive zone dedicated to Major General Mikhail Gudkov (155th Naval Infantry Brigade). ТАСС posts a video showing Putin interacting with female cadets, discussing parachuting. Alex Parker Returns posts a historical newspaper clipping (1997) involving Donald Trump and Moscow, used to imply continuity in geopolitical narratives and potentially to frame Trump in a positive light for RF audiences. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники post about a conscript's struggle with military commissariat. Два майора's FPV drone photo on fiber optics confirms RF's intent to target UAF communication infrastructure, and its IO emphasizes successful strikes. Два майора's military lawyer advertisement video reflects RF's intent to manage personnel issues, potentially offering an "out" for those dissatisfied with service, or to attract individuals from Ukraine by promising legal pathways to RF citizenship/service. AV БогомаZ posts about investment in Bryansk Oblast, an IO effort to project normalcy and economic development in border regions, despite conflict. ТАСС reports on Der Spiegel's article about "Coalition of the Willing" options. Север.Реалии reports on Putin's niece's claim about prosthetics. Alex Parker Returns' commentary on NATO Article 5 and Indo-Pacific partners highlights RF's IO capability to exploit perceived weaknesses or limitations in Western alliances to sow discord. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's crowdfunding update is intended to continuously mobilize public support and resources for RF military efforts. Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) amplifying Bloomberg's report on Europe's "security guarantees" for Ukraine is intended to monitor and frame Western support as a provocative action. ТАСС reports Putin opening the Pacific Railway. Новости Москвы reports Moscow will begin confirming age by biometrics at self-service checkouts. Сливочный каприз posts a graphic about "Railroad workers protest." КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UAF source) provides an update on yesterday's satellite images regarding strikes in Crimea, citing "Militarny" and "Astra" that "Flamingo" cruise missiles likely hit six hovercraft (A25 "Parus," "Siverko-25," and "Khivus-10"), with visual confirmation for four and one serviceman killed. ТАСС reports The Smiths vocalist Morrissey is selling all rights and licenses. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) voted to resume direct broadcasts of its sessions. Басурин о главном posts an ad for a "Toyota Corolla" giveaway. Colonelcassad reports RF Energy Minister Tsivilev stated Russia will supply China with over 100 billion cubic meters of gas per year. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts photo messages promoting a "Sotki Marathon" (crowdfunding). ТАСС reports 303 million rubles allocated to close the "Great Russian Encyclopedia" project. Alex Parker Returns posts economic analysis of RF cooling economy, reduced oil and gas profits, and impact of sanctions. ТАСС reports Krasnov ordered checks on State Traffic Inspectorate and Rostransnadzor after business complaints. Colonelcassad reports Putin visited "Russia" national center at EEF-2025, and the "SMO" theme was present. ТАСС reports three powerful DDoS attacks on EEF resources were repelled. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts an anti-corruption guide from NAZK in comic format. Alex Parker Returns posts photo message with commentary on the "historic meeting of irreconcilables" (Coalition of the Resolute), discussing security guarantees for Ukraine with derogatory remarks about participants. RF TASS reports Inditex (Zara, Bershka) applied to Rospatent to register the Zara trademark in blue and white. RF Новости Москвы posts about a Siberian Collection "dumpling-flavored lipstick." RF Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts Putin's statement, "If the conflict in Ukraine does not end peacefully, Russia will resort to weapons." RF Alex Parker Returns claims Foreign Minister of Kazakhstan, Murat Nurtleu, was detained. RF Север.Реалии reports the operational headquarters of Belgorod Oblast has prohibited publishing unofficial information about military operations. RF Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) posts a photo message quoting Macron on "guarantees without guarantees." RF Два майора comments on "new initiatives" for parental responsibility for children's actions. RF TASS reports the French National Porcelain Museum was robbed of €9.5 million. RF Alex Parker Returns quotes NATO Secretary General Rutte stating NATO intends to confront Russia "after the conflict in Ukraine ends." RF Kadyrov_95 posts a video celebrating the birth of Prophet Muhammad. RF Север.Реалии reports Belarus declared Ilya Varlamov's social networks "extremist." RF Colonelcassad posts a video of Putin at an exhibition, being explained modern slang ("cringe," "chilovaya katka"). RF Alex Parker Returns reports two Ukrainian DRGs are being sought in Kaluga Oblast (Zhigra, Lyudinovo, Kirov regions). RF TASS reports the French National Porcelain Museum was robbed of €9.5 million. RF TASS posts a video of heavy fog on Russky Island (Vladivostok), where the EEF is taking place. TASS reports that Kazakhstan's Minister of Culture and Information, Aida Balaeva, has denied the detention of the country's Foreign Minister. Colonelcassad posts videos of President Putin remotely launching new infrastructure projects in the Far East regions via video link from the EEF. TASS reports Russia is expelling an employee of the Estonian embassy in Moscow as a retaliatory measure. Операция Z (via Russkaya Vesna) posts a video covering the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting in Paris, framing it as a "Parisian gathering" and stating they "are again waiting for a call from Trump." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video depicting a North Korean delegate bowing deeply to an off-camera official, likely Russian, after Putin's meeting with Kim Jong Un, with the caption suggesting North Korean special services are cleaning Kim Jong Un's DNA. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts a video featuring a speaker at the Eastern Economic Forum discussing veterans of the "special military operation" and their integration into society, noting that "military personnel have become drivers of Russian prosthetics." TASS reports Putin stated that internal demand for gas is growing, and export obligations are also increasing. TASS reports the EU fears Germany may eventually refuse to participate in a possible military mission in Ukraine. "Старше Эдды" reports that the LDPR (Liberal Democratic Party of Russia) will "protect families from credit slavery." "Операция Z" (via Russkaya Vesna) uses the headline "Europe wants to turn the AFU into a 'steel porcupine'," implying a strengthened, defensive Ukrainian military. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reports Germany's chief intelligence officer will be a former German ambassador to Ukraine, Afghanistan, and Iraq. TASS reports the death toll from the Afghanistan earthquake has exceeded 2,200. "Новости Москвы" reports heating will be turned on when the average daily air temperature does not exceed +8 degrees Celsius for 5 consecutive days. "Север.Реалии" reports the operational headquarters of Belgorod Oblast has prohibited publishing unofficial information about military operations and their deployment locations. WarGonzo posts a video "Confession behind the balaclava — 'Afonya' about love, cowardice and meanings." TASS opened a regional information center in Vladivostok. TASS reports that Chinese state media (CBC) claims China is attempting to take a leading role in shaping a new world order, while the US is losing allies. TASS reports that Russian mortgage rates will gradually decrease from their current level of 18%. RBC-Ukraine reports that Witkoff and Zelenskyy will hold a meeting in Paris, citing Reuters. UAF General Staff posts multiple photo messages (#Воїни_Думки #Воїни_Слова). UAF "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" posts a photo message stating that the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) is reinstating criminal liability for unauthorized absence (СЗЧ). RF "Рыбарь" posts a photo message titled "📝Труба зовет📝." UAF "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports that Britain has directed over £1 billion (1.3 billion $) from frozen Russian assets to military aid for Ukraine. TASS reports an unusual plasma ejection from the sun. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War posts a photo message about an online meeting with families of servicemen from the 19th Separate Rifle Battalion. UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" posts a video from occupied Donetsk depicting long lines of civilians, primarily elderly, waiting for water distribution, and also shows "water marauders" stealing water from barrels. TASS reports RF Construction Minister Irek Faizullin is considering mortgage support measures for youth. Colonelcassad posts a video by Rojin on "Destruction of Ukrainian energy, robodogs and naval blockade of Odesa." ASTRA reports a local resident in Murmansk was arrested for donating to the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK). TASS reports the Ministry of Health denied changes to sick leave issuance from September 1st, with changes still under discussion. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting in Paris concluded, with a call with Trump scheduled. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War posts photo messages about a meeting with families of servicemen from the 119th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade of Ukraine. TASS reports Milorad Dodik stated the Republic of Srpska may declare independence if external pressure intensifies. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message criticizing Macron and Pavel Durov, implying a negative impact of "French influence" or changing identities. TASS reports a BMW in Berlin hit a group of 7-8 year old children. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts a video "🤬Тот самый прогресс в протезировании." Alex Parker Returns posts a video criticizing Whitkoff's and Zelenskyy's quick departure from the Paris meeting. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports 20% of soldiers need psychological support after returning from the SMO, with a shortage of qualified psychologists in Russia. Новости Москвы reports registration opened for an autumn cycling festival on September 13th. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a photo message on Murat Mukashev, an alleged Navalny supporter who opposed the war, was imprisoned for drugs, then joined RF assault troops and was liquidated in Kharkiv Oblast. Janus Putkonen posts a video titled "Halukkaiden idioottien kokous on alkanut." Два майора posts a photo message with the caption: "How USA influences EU through training 'correct' analysts." Colonelcassad reports the RF Ministry of Defense daily summary for the SMO as of 04 SEP 25. Alex Parker Returns posts a video claiming police in LNR stopped a car with "Akhmat Circus" for traffic violations. Janus Putkonen posts a video titled "Yandex-roboteilla on Moskovassa poikkeuksellista rohkeutta 😂." RF Presidential Promotion: Kadyrov_95 reports that RF President by Decree assigned the high military rank of Lieutenant General to Magomed Daudov, Chairman of the Government of Chechen Republic. RF Civilian Flights Resume: Moscow News reports Aeroflot resumes regular flights from Moscow to Seychelles and Sri Lanka. Witkoff Leaves Paris Meeting Early (TASS): TASS reports Witkoff left the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting at the Élysée Palace 45 minutes after it began, citing Ukrainian media. RF is promoting its quality of mobile internet in Moscow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS posts IO on Naryshkin claiming "many Western leaders are going down the path to an abyss." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF TASS reports Abbas will arrive at the first Russian-Arab summit in October with a large delegation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF TASS reports Zyuganov states proposed minimum wage increase is insufficient. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF milblogger Fighterbomber posts an aerial photo from an aircraft, likely for IO/morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF milblogger Два майора discusses new "channels" feature on VK, demonstrating internal RF social media observation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF milblogger МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts about a military family waiting for housing for four years, highlighting an internal social issue. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Russian human rights ombudswoman Moskalkova reports ongoing dialogue regarding the return of Kursk residents from Sumy, but no defined date, indicating continued diplomatic efforts on humanitarian issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF claims a drug lab operating under Ukrainian special services was discovered near Novosibirsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF milblogger "Басурин о главном" posts a photo message claiming 7 AfD candidates died before German elections, likely a conspiracy theory for IO to sow distrust in Western democracies. (LOW CONFIDENCE) RF milblogger "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" shares a video on regional leaders of "Association of SVO Veterans" helping soldiers adapt to civilian life, reflecting internal RF efforts to support veterans. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF TASS reports that residents of "Novorossiya" must replace vehicle registration documents and numbers with Russian ones by January 1st, reflecting RF's intent to consolidate control over occupied territories and enforce Russian administrative norms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Reuters reports Trump told "Coalition of the Willing" leaders that Europe should stop buying Russian oil and increase economic pressure on China. This aligns with RF's intent to exploit Western divisions and to monitor international economic pressures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO (Colonelcassad) uses a political cartoon to mock the "West's burning bottoms" regarding its support for Ukraine, indicating an intent to use satire to undermine Western resolve. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF TASS reports Mikhail Efremov officially joined Nikita Mikhalkov's "Master's Workshop '12'" theater troupe, reflecting efforts to project normalcy and cultural activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF TASS reports the death of writer Patrick Hemingway, son of Ernest Hemingway, a civilian news item for internal consumption. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Rybar posts a video titled "Uzbek ethnic crime," which is a clear RF IO effort to portray a specific migrant group negatively, likely for internal political purposes or to stir social division. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Strelkov's IO (Strelkov on SMO Format, Strelkov on Gubarev Arrest) indicates an intent to criticize the current military leadership and strategy within Russia, attempting to rally nationalist-minded opponents. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO (Basurin o Glavnom) using historical footage on Sakhalin demonstrates an intent to draw parallels between historical geopolitical struggles and the current conflict, reinforcing narratives of Russian historical importance and self-defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO (Mash na Donbasse) featuring a woman seeking a soldier who delivered her baby under fire indicates an intent to humanize Russian soldiers and portray them as heroes, contrasting with UAF narratives of war crimes and potentially deflecting attention from the Chernihiv strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO (Colonelcassad) reporting on Kallas's comments on the RF/China WWII narrative demonstrates an intent to monitor and respond to international criticism, and to reinforce its own historical narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO (TASS) reporting Milan's mourning for Armani aims to project normalcy and participation in global cultural events, despite ongoing conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Басурин о главном posts an image titled "Europe in a Trap: Security Guarantees for Ukraine or a Geopolitical Fool's Game?" clearly indicates an RF intent to undermine the "Coalition of the Willing" and create internal divisions within Europe regarding support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Два майора posts a video on incidents involving minors, law enforcement interactions, detentions, and legal expert commentary on juvenile offenders in Russia, indicating an RF intent to project internal order and potentially use narratives about juvenile crime for IO (e.g., linking to "children for sabotage" claims). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS posts a graphic of SCO countries with an American eagle, indicating RF IO to highlight geopolitical alignments and counter US influence, emphasizing a multi-polar world order. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ASTRA and TASS post videos of Putin thanking China for visa-free travel and announcing Russia will reciprocate, reinforcing RF's intent to deepen strategic ties and economic cooperation with China, further challenging Western influence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Новости Москвы reports a "Beer Nemarathon" festival in Moscow, indicating RF's intent to project normalcy and cultural resilience despite the ongoing conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Операция Z reports 16 German candidates died before elections, an unsubstantiated claim likely intended to sow distrust in Western democracies and undermine the legitimacy of their political processes. (LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity; HIGH CONFIDENCE on intent) TASS reports Italy will not send troops to Ukraine, as stated by PM Meloni, which RF will leverage to highlight divisions within the "Coalition of the Willing" and undermine the perceived unity of support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS also quotes Putin claiming "metat biser" (casting pearls before swine) before Rutte is useless, continuing to delegitimize Western leaders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad shares a meme criticizing US demands for Europe to stop buying Russian oil, indicating an RF IO effort to exploit Western economic divisions and fuel anti-American sentiment within Europe. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: TASS reports that accusations of RF not paying insurance after the AZAL plane catastrophe are cynical and false, according to the RF Ministry of Foreign Affairs, indicating RF's intent to defend its international reputation and counter negative narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: НгП раZVедка quotes "The Narcissist" (Zelenskyy) saying "Putin will be forced to peace. We need to take away the Russian military machine's means of producing weapons," indicating an RF IO intent to portray Ukrainian leadership as aggressive and unrealistic, and the conflict as an existential threat to Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: TASS reports Washington authorities sued the Trump administration for deploying the National Guard to the city, indicating an RF IO intent to highlight internal US political divisions and instability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: НгП раZVедка uses derogatory language to dismiss Ukrainian political figures and the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting, continuing RF's intent to delegitimize Ukrainian leadership and international support through personal attacks and satire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Новости Москвы reporting the death of a Sumatran orangutan in the Moscow Zoo indicates RF's intent to project normalcy and divert attention. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts a video about the head of the Investigative Committee investigating a military serviceman's house being set on fire, indicating an RF intent to demonstrate active investigation of internal security threats, potentially to reassure the public or attribute blame. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Стрелков Игорь Иванович (Strelkov) posts a message calling for preparation for "a big war and new attempts at destabilization," indicating a hardline nationalist intent to advocate for an escalatory military posture and to project an internal sense of threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: TASS posts a quote attributed to Pavel Durov ("Slavic states never invaded Europe without reason, but the reverse happened repeatedly"), indicating an RF IO intent to propagate historical revisionism and justify current actions by portraying Russia as historically defensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: ASTRA posts a video with the caption: "Kim Jong Un took his own toilet to the summit in China, and his staff carefully destroyed his bio-traces," reflecting a UAF/Western IO intent to highlight eccentricities of authoritarian leaders allied with RF, subtly undermining their credibility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Операция Z reports (citing Russian Spring military correspondents) that Italy and Poland will not send troops to Ukraine, as stated by their authorities, indicating an RF IO intent to highlight divisions within the "Coalition of the Willing" and undermine support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: TASS reports U.S. will cut defense aid for Russia-bordering countries. This is an RF IO amplification of a Western media report, aiming to highlight potential reductions in Western support and sow doubt among US allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts several identical photo messages with a derogatory caption expressing alarm about changing demographics in a Yekaterinburg school. This is a clear RF IO effort to foment internal social tensions, nationalist sentiment, and anti-immigrant narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Басурин о главном posts two identical photo messages referencing the Cuban Missile Crisis (Sep 4, 1962), and a caption stating Kennedy warned Castro, and Moscow stated US intervention would lead to global conflict. This is a significant RF IO effort to draw historical parallels, implicitly threatening nuclear escalation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: AV БогомаZ (Bryansk governor) posts a text message "Another vile crime of the Armed Forces of Ukraine." This is an immediate RF IO response to blame Ukraine for alleged cross-border attacks, likely to justify RF's own actions or rally internal support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Военкор Котенок posts two identical photo messages with the caption "Main news today (04.09.2025)." This is a routine RF milblogger IO effort to provide curated daily news, shaping the narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts two identical video messages depicting a heated verbal exchange between two individuals, framed to highlight inter-ethnic tensions within migrant communities in Europe, undermining Ukrainian integration and Western values, while diverting attention from RF actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts two identical photo messages with the caption "Marathon 'Hundreds'" (referencing drones) showing burnt drones, and a follow-up message stating "The collection is sadly going poorly." This is RF milblogger IO attempting to galvanize public support and crowdfunding for drones, indicating a persistent need for UAVs and high attrition. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Рыбарь posts a text message: "The SMO changed a lot." This is an RF milblogger's reflective statement, likely implying a significant and lasting impact of the conflict on Russian society or military, which could be leveraged for various IO narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts two identical photo messages with the caption "Pavlo is very offended by the West, very. What happened?" This is RF IO attempting to highlight perceived discontent or disagreements among Ukrainian figures or with Western partners, aiming to sow distrust and undermine UAF's international relationships. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Kotsnews posts two identical photo messages with a caption stating 84% of respondents couldn't name a hero of the Soviet-Japanese War, urging them to study history. This is RF IO engaging in historical education/revisionism, likely to promote specific historical narratives and national identity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Intentions:

  • Strategic Objective: Degrade Ukrainian Warfighting Capacity, Break National Resilience, and Undermine Western Support. RF intends to systematically target Ukraine's ability to produce and sustain military operations by striking defense industry, fuel, and railway infrastructure, while inflicting civilian casualties. RF aims to cripple Ukraine's ability to wage war, disrupt economic life, and sow public discontent. RF is focused on neutralizing UAF drone advantages through EW and targeting UAV infrastructure. Rybar's "Eyes on Orbit" videos could be intended to demonstrate RF's continued military prowess and a deterrent capability. Два майора's video showing an aerial strike on a small boat indicates RF's intent to interdict UAF riverine movements or special operations. MoD Russia's claim of neutralizing a Bradley IFV indicates RF's intent to specifically target and degrade Western-supplied armor and UAF personnel. MoD Russia's claimed strike on UAF UAV command post and strongholds in Krasnoarmeysk direction indicates an intent to directly degrade UAF C2 and fortified positions. The КАБ launches on Kharkiv Oblast indicate an intent to expand the deep strike campaign to further degrade UAF's ability to defend its northern territories and support ongoing ground operations. Народная милиция ДНР's claimed destruction of AFU positions, PVD, and antenna by 68th orb indicates an intent to actively dismantle UAF forward defenses and communication capabilities. Два майора's video claiming a Lancet strike on UAF artillery in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast shows RF's intent to systematically destroy UAF combat assets, particularly artillery, which pose a threat to RF ground operations. Colonelcassad's video from Bryansk border region showing ISR and strikes suggests an intent to deter or neutralize UAF cross-border activity and protect RF border security. Colonelcassad's video of a helicopter strike on a UAV command post in Kupyansk indicates an intent to directly target UAF UAV C2, aiming to degrade UAF drone operational effectiveness in this critical sector. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video from Krasnodar Krai and Rostov Oblast, suggesting UAF strikes, which RF will intend to deter or respond to. Kotsnews videos of Ukrainian artillery firing and RF artillery striking indicate an intent to engage UAF military assets and disrupt civilian life, respectively. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video from a Russian military vehicle's dashcam showing a Ukrainian "Bulava" drone hitting the car, which RF will intend to prevent and counter. RF MoD claims control of Novoselovka in Dnepropetrovsk region and Kotsnews reports its liberation. This indicates an explicit RF intent to expand territorial control westward into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. TASS video reports "Rubikon" operators struck 6 AFU armored vehicles and 3 Starlink stations. The intent is to degrade UAF ground combat capabilities by destroying armored vehicles and disrupt UAF communications by targeting Starlink terminals. Colonelcassad posts a text message claiming "burning out of a mobile UAV command post of the AFU in the Kupyansk area." This indicates an intent to specifically target and neutralize UAF drone command and control nodes, aiming to reduce UAF's drone operational effectiveness in the Kupyansk sector. RBC-Ukraine reports that Sumy and its district are without electricity due to a Russian army strike on critical infrastructure. This indicates RF's intent to degrade Ukrainian critical infrastructure and disrupt civilian life, likely to put pressure on the population and the government. RF MOD - UKRAINIAN DRG DESTROYED (DNIPRO RIVER): TASS reports the RF Ministry of Defense states a Ukrainian DRG that attempted to land in the island zone of the Dnipro River was destroyed. This indicates RF's intent to maintain control over the Dnipro River and its island zones, preventing UAF infiltration. RF DRONE STRIKE (WOODED AREA): "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posts a video with the caption "Target destroyed, no survivors." This indicates an intent to eliminate enemy personnel and assets with precision strikes. RF - PZBH 2000 HOWITZER DESTROYED: "Воин DV" posts a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzer. This indicates RF's intent to degrade UAF artillery capabilities, a key component of UAF's defense. TASS - RF MOD CLAIMS DRG DESTRUCTION: TASS posts a video with the caption "Footage of the destruction of a Ukrainian DRG attempting to land in the island zone of the Dnipro." This reinforces the intent to demonstrate RF's operational effectiveness in countering UAF special operations. RF ANIMATED STRIKE SCHEME: Colonelcassad's animated strike scheme confirms RF's intent to conduct sustained and widespread aerial operations across Ukraine, targeting various regions. RF IO - YOUTH SABOTAGE NARRATIVE: RF milblogger "Операция Z" (via Russkaya Vesna) posts a narrative claiming children are used for sabotage by Ukraine. This indicates an intent to discredit Ukraine, potentially dehumanize its resistance, and sow internal distrust within Ukraine or among international supporters. RF CONTROL OF DNIPRO DELTA ISLANDS (KHERSON): TASS reports Saldo's claim of RF maintaining control over Dnipro delta islands in Kherson Oblast. This indicates RF's intent to secure strategic riverine territories and reinforce its defensive posture in the Kherson direction, denying UAF riverine operations. RF IO - DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN ENERGY/ODESA BLOCKADE: Colonelcassad posts a video by Rojin on "Destruction of Ukrainian energy, robodogs and naval blockade of Odesa." This indicates RF's intent to project its capabilities and strategic goals of crippling Ukrainian energy infrastructure and naval access. RF Ballistic Missile Strike on Humanitarian Mission (Chernihiv): The confirmed ballistic missile strike on humanitarian demining personnel in Chernihiv, while possibly a targeting error, demonstrates an intent to strike in the area, and even if unintentional, it serves to increase pressure and fear, and disrupt humanitarian efforts. RF Air/Drone Strike on UAF Buggy: Voin DV posts video claiming operators of the 69th Cover Brigade of the "Vostok" Group of Forces struck an enemy buggy. RF Bombing of Hospital/Village (Kostiantynivka): RBC-Ukraine reports RF dropped aerial bombs on a hospital in Kostiantynivka and a nearby village. RF's airspace violations over Poland, if intentional, indicate an intent to probe NATO air defenses, test response times, or demonstrate a disregard for the sovereignty of neighboring states, potentially as a form of intimidation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The strike on a hospital in Kostiantynivka and the deaths in Illinivka demonstrate an intent to inflict widespread damage and casualties, consistent with a strategy of undermining civilian morale and support for the UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF's Vostok Group receiving Mavic 3 drones indicates an intent to rapidly deploy COTS technology to maintain and improve battlefield ISR and precision strike capabilities for ground operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Moskalkova's statement on the return of Kursk residents from Sumy shows an intent to engage in humanitarian diplomacy, possibly to extract concessions or project a humane image to internal or international audiences. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The new UAF Air Force report of a strike UAV threat in Poltava Oblast and aviation weapon use in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia indicates RF's continued intent to maintain aerial pressure across various regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF claims of discovering a drug lab under Ukrainian special services near Novosibirsk indicates an intent to delegitimize Ukraine, attribute illicit activities, and justify internal security operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The damaged bridge and urban strike on the Zaporizhzhia front (Stepnohirsk) indicates RF's intent to degrade UAF defensive infrastructure and apply direct pressure on this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO reporting increased RF use of heavy equipment and small infantry groups for assaults on the Zaporizhzhia direction confirms RF's intent to intensify ground pressure in this critical sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF MoD's claim of destroying a UAF long-range UAV preparation and launch point with an Iskander in Chernihiv Oblast is a clear intent to reframe the attack on the humanitarian demining mission as a legitimate military strike, seeking to deflect accusations of war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The Prosecutor General's Office report on torture and robbery by RF servicemen in Kherson confirms RF's intent to engage in widespread war crimes, including looting and abuse of civilians, as part of their occupation strategy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Dnipropetrovsk ODA reporting sustained FPV drone and artillery attacks in Nikopol region indicates RF's intent to continue harassing and pressuring civilian areas proximate to the front lines, likely to impact morale and potentially to cover ground movements or fix UAF forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO (Воин DV) using Ukrainian military imagery for "SVO fighters don't advise bad things!" is an intent to co-opt narratives and potentially recruit from Ukraine, or demoralize by blurring lines. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF's demonstration of the "Courier" laser demining system indicates an intent to mitigate minefield threats for its own advancing forces and to project technological superiority. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF's destruction of the Lozovaya substation in Kupyansk direction clearly shows an intent to degrade UAF energy infrastructure and disrupt support to forces in that sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: The MoD Russia video claiming elimination of a UAF UAV deploying area in Chernihiv region demonstrates an intent to reinforce their narrative of a legitimate military target, further solidifying their justification for the strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: RF IO (Alex Parker Returns) highlighting demographic shifts in Yekaterinburg schools and a lack of Russian children is intended to foster nationalist sentiment and anti-immigrant narratives, potentially mobilizing internal support for a more aggressive state policy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: RF IO (Басурин о главном) drawing parallels to the Cuban Missile Crisis demonstrates an intent to escalate the perceived threat of the conflict to a global level, implicitly threatening nuclear escalation, and justifying RF actions as defensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: AV БогомаZ's (Bryansk governor) claim of "another vile crime of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" indicates an intent to immediately attribute blame to Ukraine for alleged cross-border attacks, fostering anti-Ukrainian sentiment and justifying RF's own aggressive actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: RF IO (Alex Parker Returns) highlighting inter-ethnic tensions in Poland, using derogatory terms, is intended to sow discord among migrant groups, undermine the perception of Ukrainian integration in Europe, and divert attention from RF's own actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: RF IO (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА) crowdfunding for drones, showing burnt drones and lamenting low collection, indicates an intent to galvanize public support and resources for RF military efforts, suggesting a high attrition rate for drones and a persistent need for resupply. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: RF IO (Рыбарь) reflecting on the SMO's impact ("The SMO changed a lot") signals an intent to manage internal expectations about the conflict's long-term effects and potentially to lay groundwork for new policy narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: RF IO (Alex Parker Returns) highlighting "Pavlo's" offense with the West is an intent to portray discord within Ukrainian leadership or with Western partners, aiming to undermine UAF's international relationships. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: RF IO (Kotsnews) promoting the study of Soviet-Japanese War heroes is an intent to reinforce specific historical narratives, enhance national identity, and potentially draw parallels to current conflicts, bolstering domestic support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Achieve Operational Success in Donbas & Kharkiv Oblasts and Push West into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: RF intends to achieve significant ground gains, particularly in Sieversk and Kupyansk, to secure supply lines and strategic breakthroughs. RF is making efforts to expand the operational area of conflict westward into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The adoption of anti-thermal imaging cloaks demonstrates an intent to circumvent UAF surveillance advantages. RF is preparing for a "final, decisive battle" for the rest of Donetsk Oblast, according to UAF, Finnish, and other Ukrainian sources. RF also intends to conduct offensive operations in the Kherson direction. "Operation Z" video of an FPV drone strike near Sumy border, explicitly linking it to "supporting an advance on Sumy," demonstrates an intent to push ground operations in border regions. Colonelcassad's video of drone strikes on UAF trench positions reflects an intent to systematically degrade UAF defenses to enable ground advances. Rybar's map-based analysis of the Shcherbinovka operations clearly indicates RF's intent to achieve tactical encirclement and territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast. Mash на Донбассе's video claiming the Russian army began assaulting Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicates an explicit intent to push into new oblasts and expand the conflict zone. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's claim of UAF using incendiary mixtures in LNR implies an RF intent to defend against or counter such tactics. Colonelcassad's video of alleged DRG capture in Bryansk Oblast indicates RF's intent to secure its border regions from perceived Ukrainian incursions and sabotage. Воин DV posts a video claiming scouts located an enemy vehicle near Novoselivka, Dnipropetropvska Oblast, reflects RF's intent to conduct thorough reconnaissance ahead of or during offensive operations in that area. Воин DV (RF milblogger, Vostok Group of Forces) claims the "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, supported by video. This signifies a clear intent to advance westward and seize new territory, expanding the operational zone and threatening Dnipropetrovsk Oblast directly. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's video, though from UAF perspective, confirms RF's intent to utilize adaptive, covert infiltration tactics (anti-thermal cloaks) to bypass UAF defenses. Два майора reports the "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, further emphasizing RF's intent to advance into central Ukraine. ТАСС reports RF MoD claiming "liberation" of Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This indicates RF's intent to expand and consolidate control in the Zaporizhzhia direction. Сливочный каприз's video from the Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka direction clearly shows RF's intent to continue offensive operations, seize territory, and assert control through the display of flags. ТАСС and Два майора report "complete liberation" of DNR territory" and continued offensive into Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. This indicates RF's intent to achieve its stated objectives in the Donbas and expand further west. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports RF forces took control of a 5-hectare forest area in LNR, indicating an intent for localized territorial gains. WarGonzo posts video footage of drone reconnaissance and artillery strikes by "Group Nemets" (291st Regiment) on UAF positions in Zaporizhzhia, demonstrating RF's intent to degrade UAF defenses in this sector. Военкор Котенок confirms RF MoD claims of advancing "deep into enemy defenses" and "liberating" Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This indicates RF's intent to consolidate and expand its control in southern Ukraine. Colonelcassad posts video claiming "Vostok" Group of Forces liberated Novoselovka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicating a clear intent to push into new oblasts and secure further territory. Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) posts photo message of Leonid Slutsky visiting Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, showcasing RF's intent to project political support and address border security. Рыбарь posts a tactical map titled "Liberation of Novoselovka," which indicates RF's intent for mapping and communicating claimed territorial changes. RF MoD claims the "Vostok" Group of Forces made ground and took Novoselovka under control in Dnepropetrovsk region. This is a clear intent to advance westward and expand the operational zone. RF Kotsnews reports the Russian army liberated Novoselovka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, reiterating the intent for territorial expansion. RF Alex Parker Returns reports two Ukrainian DRGs are being sought in Kaluga Oblast (Zhigra, Lyudinovo, Kirov regions). This indicates RF's intent for internal security operations against deep infiltration by UAF special forces. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts photo messages regarding the "Zaporizhzhia direction." This indicates RF's intent to maintain an active presence and operational focus on the Zaporizhzhia front, suggesting continued engagement in this sector. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video alleging a Russian occupier riding a motorcycle was targeted by a kamikaze drone. The intent is clear: UAF forces are actively seeking to eliminate RF personnel and light vehicles using FPV drones, aiming to inflict casualties and disrupt RF movements on the ground. MoD Russia posts a photo message on the "progress of special military operation as of 4 September 2025." This indicates an intent to regularly update the official narrative on the progress of military operations, likely to maintain domestic support and project an image of success. Два майора posts a series of photos, titled "Soldier's Daily Life," depicting a cat with camouflage gear and soldiers. This is an internal RF IO effort to humanize soldiers and evoke positive emotions, aiming to boost morale and garner public sympathy/support for the military. Colonelcassad's video on the Sumy direction, claiming "local advance in Yunakovka," indicates RF's intent to push its territorial control in border areas. RF CONTROL OF DNIPRO DELTA ISLANDS (KHERSON): TASS reports Saldo's claim of RF maintaining control over Dnipro delta islands in Kherson Oblast. This indicates RF's intent to secure strategic riverine territories and reinforce its defensive posture in the Kherson direction, denying UAF riverine operations. RF INTENT TO PRESSURE VELIKOMIKHAILOVKA (DNIPROPETROVSK): TASS reports the "liberation" of Novoselovka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast allows RF forces to intensify fire pressure on Velikomikhailovka. RF TACTICAL MAP - DONETSK/ZAPORIZHZHIA/DNIPROPETROVSK OFFENSIVE: Colonelcassad posts a tactical map claiming the front line after the "liberation" of the southwestern DNR, showing the offensive continuing into Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetropsk Oblasts. UAF STRIKE ON RF TANK/ARTILLERY/ROBOTIC COMPLEX (DONETSK): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video claiming Phoenix unit operators of the State Border Guard Service (DPSU) destroyed an RF tank, artillery piece, and ground robotic complex in Donetsk Oblast. RF Military Expert Marochko on Novoselovka (Dnipropetrovsk): TASS reports military expert Marochko states RF liberation of Novoselovka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) allows for a buffer zone near DNR and battles for Zaporizhzhia Oblast settlements. UAF claims on striking an RF ammunition depot in Selydove indicate an RF intent to maintain supply lines in occupied territories that are vulnerable to UAF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF milblogger "Два майора" posts a map of the Zaporizhzhia front near Stepnohirsk. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) The damaged bridge and urban strike on the Zaporizhzhia front (Stepnohirsk) indicates RF's intent to degrade UAF defensive infrastructure and apply direct pressure on this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF milblogger "Военкор Котенок" posts a photo message with a map showing the Pokrovske (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) direction, explicitly stating RF's continued intent to operate and gain territory in this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) STERNENKO reporting increased RF use of heavy equipment and small infantry groups for assaults on the Zaporizhzhia direction confirms RF's intent to intensify ground pressure in this critical sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claiming UAF fought Colombian mercenaries for two days, demonstrates RF's intent to use and amplify narratives of foreign mercenaries to delegitimize UAF forces and portray foreign support as an escalatory factor. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) MoD Russia reports servicemembers of the 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade (Vostok Group of Forces) are in Novoselovka, Dnipropetrovsk region, clearly demonstrating RF's intent to expand territorial control into new oblasts and solidify gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports "active battles" in the Pokrovsko-Dobropolsk direction, signaling RF's intent to continue ground offensives in this area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad posts a video showcasing the "Courier" robotic demining platform, which indicates an RF intent to clear minefields to facilitate ground advances and ensure force mobility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF observation and evacuation points were destroyed in the Druzhkovsky direction, indicating an intent to systematically degrade UAF frontline capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's videos from the Kharkiv direction, showing drone footage of destroyed UAF mortar positions, vehicles, and a downed 'Baba-Yaga' drone, suggest an intent to degrade UAF defensive capabilities and maintain pressure on the Kharkiv axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: STERNENKO's video from the Sieversk direction, showing drone strikes against a trench/dugout and a motorcycle, confirms an RF intent to conduct aggressive assaults in this area, which UAF is actively countering. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Consolidate Anti-Western Bloc & Project Strength: RF seeks to deepen strategic cooperation with non-Western nations and project an image of global influence and technological prowess. RF uses extensive IO to reinforce domestic support and counter Western narratives. RF intends to exploit perceived divisions in Western European foreign policy and garner support from more accommodating political figures. RF continues to challenge the existing global order and foster a multi-polar world narrative. RF intends to project normalcy and international legitimacy in sports despite current sanctions. RF aims to discredit Ukrainian authorities and undermine public trust. RF is also using diplomatic channels to promote family reunions, as seen with Tatiana Moskalkova. TASS reports FSB detained a 35-year-old SBU agent in Kherson Oblast, reflecting RF's intent to secure occupied territories and conduct counter-intelligence operations. Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) reports Germany is discussing troop redeployment to Poland, which RF IO will use to fuel anti-NATO narratives and sow divisions. Север.Реалии reports statements at the EEF on "technical stagnation" and a decline comparable to the 1990s crisis in Russia, which RF IO could use to set expectations for its economic trajectory. ASTRA reports Z-propagandist Kashevarova claimed the formation of units from military personnel with hepatitis and HIV, who will be issued distinctive armbands. This highly unusual claim, if true, indicates an RF intent to use all available manpower, regardless of health status, potentially in high-risk "assault" roles, while simultaneously creating a dehumanizing, discriminatory system. For IO purposes, this could be intended to shock and demonstrate desperation or to project a ruthless commitment to the war effort. ТАСС reports Putin familiarized himself with an interactive presentation on the development of the Far East and received reports on work done. ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova stated at the EEF that "Russia once saved Germany. Now the German people must awaken and save themselves; the situation in the country is comparable to a pulled self-destruction pin." This is intended to sow discord within NATO, appeal to anti-German sentiment, and justify RF's actions. ТАСС reports Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov stated at the EEF that the Russian economy is cooling faster than expected. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/ТИEDOTТЕЕТ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) posts a photo message implying a summit of "willing idiots" today discussing "Ukraine's guarantees." ТАСС reports Deputy Prime Minister Overchuk met with Afghanistan's Ambassador to Moscow Gul Hassan after an EEF session. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Kotsnews post photo messages promoting "Военкоры" (milbloggers). ТАСС reports Degtyarev, at the EEF session "Sports Diplomacy: New Challenges and Opportunities," stated that dozens of football (soccer) executives have changed their rhetoric on changing the limit for foreign players in the country's championship. ТАСС posts a video showing Putin with a delegation, including military personnel, observing urban development plans. ТАСС reports Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated that the Russian Federation observes that Ukraine and the EU currently lack the desire to seek peaceful resolutions to the crisis. ТАСС reports Moscow is ready to continue dialogue with Kyiv in Istanbul and is open to considering raising the level of delegations, according to Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin. Операция Z (via Russkaya Vesna) posts a photo message with "British circus: how The Times sculpts an 'unkillable hero' out of Filimonov," an IO piece against a Ukrainian figure. Рыбарь posts a photo message celebrating "Nuclear Support Specialist Day." Басурин о главном posts a video showing young contract soldiers learning first aid and evacuation techniques. Новости Москвы posts a video promoting the "Open Water" festival in Krylatskoye, Moscow. ТАСС reports Germany will propose strengthening Ukraine's air defense and providing equipment for four mechanized brigades at the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting in Paris. ТАСС reports Medvedev threatened to seize "British Crown valuables" in response to the UK transferring frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. Colonelcassad posts multiple videos showing humanitarian aid to RF soldiers and civilian medical facilities/families in Donetsk. Басурин о главном states, "Germany is on a dangerous path to war with Russia." Kotsnews posts a photo message with the caption, "How Europe will provoke a big war with Russia." Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message quoting Maria Zakharova stating Trump's main task is to "save America," and that his peace statements are "courageous." Новости Москвы reports Uniqlo may return to Russia. MoD Russia posts videos showing Putin touring a military-patriotic education center and an interactive zone dedicated to Major General Mikhail Gudkov (155th Naval Infantry Brigade). ТАСС posts a video showing Putin interacting with female cadets, discussing parachuting. Alex Parker Returns posts a historical newspaper clipping (1997) involving Donald Trump and Moscow, used to imply continuity in geopolitical narratives and potentially to frame Trump in a positive light for RF audiences. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники post about a conscript's struggle with military commissariat. Два майора's FPV drone photo on fiber optics confirms RF's intent to target UAF communication infrastructure, and its IO emphasizes successful strikes. Два майора's military lawyer advertisement video reflects RF's intent to manage personnel issues, potentially offering an "out" for those dissatisfied with service, or to attract individuals from Ukraine by promising legal pathways to RF citizenship/service. AV БогомаZ posts about investment in Bryansk Oblast, an IO effort to project normalcy and economic development in border regions, despite conflict. ТАСС reports on Der Spiegel's article about "Coalition of the Willing" options. Север.Реалии reports on Putin's niece's claim about prosthetics. Alex Parker Returns' commentary on NATO Article 5 and Indo-Pacific partners highlights RF's IO capability to exploit perceived weaknesses or limitations in Western alliances to sow discord. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's crowdfunding update is intended to continuously mobilize public support and resources for RF military efforts. Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) amplifying Bloomberg's report on Europe's "security guarantees" for Ukraine is intended to monitor and frame Western support as a provocative action. ТАСС reports Putin opening the Pacific Railway. Новости Москвы reports Moscow will begin confirming age by biometrics at self-service checkouts. Сливочный каприз posts a graphic about "Railroad workers protest." Colonelcassad reports Energy Minister Tsivilev on gas supply to China. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts photo messages promoting a "Sotki Marathon" (crowdfunding). ТАСС reports 303 million rubles allocated to close the "Great Russian Encyclopedia" project. Alex Parker Returns posts economic analysis of RF cooling economy. ТАСС reports Krasnov ordered checks on State Traffic Inspectorate and Rostransnadzor after business complaints. Colonelcassad reports Putin visited "Russia" national center at EEF-2025. ТАСС reports three powerful DDoS attacks on EEF resources were repelled. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts an anti-corruption guide from NAZK in comic format. Alex Parker Returns posts photo message with commentary on the "historic meeting of irreconcilables" (Coalition of the Resolute), discussing security guarantees for Ukraine with derogatory remarks about participants. RF TASS reports Inditex (Zara, Bershka) applied to Rospatent to register the Zara trademark in blue and white. RF Новости Москвы posts about a Siberian Collection "dumpling-flavored lipstick." RF Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts Putin's statement, "If the conflict in Ukraine does not end peacefully, Russia will resort to weapons." RF Alex Parker Returns claims Foreign Minister of Kazakhstan, Murat Nurtleu, was detained. RF Север.Реалии reports the operational headquarters of Belgorod Oblast has prohibited publishing unofficial information about military operations. RF Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) posts a photo message quoting Macron on "guarantees without guarantees." RF Два майора comments on "new initiatives" for parental responsibility for children's actions. RF TASS reports the French National Porcelain Museum was robbed of €9.5 million. RF Alex Parker Returns quotes NATO Secretary General Rutte stating NATO intends to confront Russia "after the conflict in Ukraine ends." RF Kadyrov_95 posts a video celebrating the birth of Prophet Muhammad. RF Север.Реалии reports Belarus declared Ilya Varlamov's social networks "extremist." RF Colonelcassad posts a video of Putin at an exhibition, being explained modern slang ("cringe," "chilovaya katka"). RF Alex Parker Returns reports two Ukrainian DRGs are being sought in Kaluga Oblast (Zhigra, Lyudinovo, Kirov regions). RF TASS reports the French National Porcelain Museum was robbed of €9.5 million. RF TASS posts a video of heavy fog on Russky Island (Vladivostok), where the EEF is taking place. TASS reports that Kazakhstan's Minister of Culture and Information, Aida Balaeva, has denied the detention of the country's Foreign Minister. Colonelcassad posts videos of President Putin remotely launching new infrastructure projects in the Far East regions via video link from the EEF. TASS reports Russia is expelling an employee of the Estonian embassy in Moscow as a retaliatory measure. Операция Z (via Russkaya Vesna) posts a video covering the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting in Paris, framing it as a "Parisian gathering" and stating they "are again waiting for a call from Trump." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video depicting a North Korean delegate bowing deeply to an off-camera official, likely Russian, after Putin's meeting with Kim Jong Un, with the caption suggesting North Korean special services are cleaning Kim Jong Un's DNA. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts a video featuring a speaker at the Eastern Economic Forum discussing veterans of the "special military operation." TASS reports Putin stated that internal demand for gas is growing. TASS reports the EU fears Germany may eventually refuse to participate in a possible military mission in Ukraine. "Старше Эдды" reports that the LDPR (Liberal Democratic Party of Russia) will "protect families from credit slavery." "Операция Z" (via Russkaya Vesna) uses the headline "Europe wants to turn the AFU into a 'steel porcupine'," implying a strengthened, defensive Ukrainian military. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reports Germany's chief intelligence officer will be a former German ambassador to Ukraine, Afghanistan, and Iraq. TASS reports the death toll from the Afghanistan earthquake has exceeded 2,200. "Новости Москвы" reports heating will be turned on when the average daily air temperature does not exceed +8 degrees Celsius for 5 consecutive days. "Север.Реалии" reports the operational headquarters of Belgorod Oblast has prohibited publishing unofficial information about military operations and their deployment locations. WarGonzo posts a video "Confession behind the balaclava — 'Afonya' about love, cowardice and meanings." TASS opened a regional information center in Vladivostok. TASS reports that Chinese state media (CBC) claims China is attempting to take a leading role in shaping a new world order. TASS reports that Russian mortgage rates will gradually decrease. RF "Рыбарь" posts a photo message titled "📝Труба зовет📝". TASS reports RF Construction Minister Irek Faizullin is considering mortgage support measures for youth. ASTRA reports a local resident in Murmansk was arrested for donating to the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK). TASS reports the Ministry of Health denied changes to sick leave issuance from September 1st. TASS reports Milorad Dodik stated the Republic of Srpska may declare independence. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message criticizing Macron and Pavel Durov. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts a video "🤬Тот самый прогресс в протезировании." Alex Parker Returns posts a video criticizing Whitkoff's and Zelenskyy's quick departure from the Paris meeting. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports 20% of soldiers need psychological support. Новости Москвы reports registration opened for an autumn cycling festival. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a photo message on Murat Mukashev. Janus Putkonen posts a video titled "Halukkaiden idioottien kokous on alkanut." Два майора posts a photo message with the caption: "How USA influences EU through training 'correct' analysts." Colonelcassad reports the RF Ministry of Defense daily summary for the SMO. Alex Parker Returns posts a video claiming police in LNR stopped a car with "Akhmat Circus." Janus Putkonen posts a video titled "Yandex-roboteilla on Moskovassa poikkeuksellista rohkeutta 😂." RF Presidential Promotion: Kadyrov_95 reports that RF President by Decree assigned the high military rank of Lieutenant General to Magomed Daudov. RF Civilian Flights Resume: Moscow News reports Aeroflot resumes regular flights. Witkoff Leaves Paris Meeting Early (TASS): TASS reports Witkoff left the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting at the Élysée Palace. RF TASS reports Naryshkin's statements about Western leaders "going down the path to an abyss" aims to delegitimize Western leadership and sow discord among allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF TASS reports Abbas will arrive at the first Russian-Arab summit in October, projecting RF's expanded diplomatic influence and countering narratives of isolation from the global South. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF TASS reports Zyuganov states proposed minimum wage increase is insufficient, potentially intended for internal social messaging. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF milblogger Fighterbomber posts an aerial photo from an aircraft, likely for IO/morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF milblogger Два майора discusses new "channels" feature on VK, demonstrating internal RF social media observation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF milblogger МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts about a military family waiting for housing for four years, highlighting an internal social issue. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Russian human rights ombudswoman Moskalkova reports ongoing dialogue regarding the return of Kursk residents from Sumy, but no defined date, indicating continued diplomatic efforts on humanitarian issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF claims a drug lab operating under Ukrainian special services was discovered near Novosibirsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF milblogger "Басурин о главном" posts a photo message claiming 7 AfD candidates died before German elections, likely a conspiracy theory for IO to sow distrust in Western democracies. (LOW CONFIDENCE) RF milblogger "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" shares a video on regional leaders of "Association of SVO Veterans" helping soldiers adapt to civilian life, reflecting internal RF efforts to support veterans. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF TASS reports that residents of "Novorossiya" must replace vehicle registration documents and numbers with Russian ones by January 1st, reflecting RF's intent to consolidate control over occupied territories and enforce Russian administrative norms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Reuters reports Trump told "Coalition of the Willing" leaders that Europe should stop buying Russian oil and increase economic pressure on China. This aligns with RF's intent to exploit Western divisions and to monitor international economic pressures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO (Colonelcassad) uses a political cartoon to mock the "West's burning bottoms" regarding its support for Ukraine, indicating an intent to use satire to undermine Western resolve. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF TASS reports Mikhail Efremov officially joined Nikita Mikhalkov's "Master's Workshop '12'" theater troupe, reflecting efforts to project normalcy and cultural activity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF TASS reports the death of writer Patrick Hemingway, son of Ernest Hemingway, a civilian news item for internal consumption. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Rybar posts a video titled "Uzbek ethnic crime," which is a clear RF IO effort to portray a specific migrant group negatively, likely for internal political purposes or to stir social division. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Strelkov's IO (Strelkov on SMO Format, Strelkov on Gubarev Arrest) indicates an intent to criticize the current military leadership and strategy within Russia, attempting to rally nationalist-minded opponents. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO (Basurin o Glavnom) using historical footage on Sakhalin demonstrates an intent to draw parallels between historical geopolitical struggles and the current conflict, reinforcing narratives of Russian historical importance and self-defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO (Mash na Donbasse) featuring a woman seeking a soldier who delivered her baby under fire indicates an intent to humanize Russian soldiers and portray them as heroes, contrasting with UAF narratives of war crimes and potentially deflecting attention from the Chernihiv strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO (Colonelcassad) reporting on Kallas's comments on the RF/China WWII narrative demonstrates an intent to monitor and respond to international criticism, and to reinforce its own historical narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO (TASS) reporting Milan's mourning for Armani aims to project normalcy and participation in global cultural events, despite ongoing conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Басурин о главном posts an image titled "Europe in a Trap: Security Guarantees for Ukraine or a Geopolitical Fool's Game?" clearly indicates an RF intent to undermine the "Coalition of the Willing" and create internal divisions within Europe regarding support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Два майора posts a video on incidents involving minors, law enforcement interactions, detentions, and legal expert commentary on juvenile offenders in Russia, indicating an RF intent to project internal order and potentially use narratives about juvenile crime for IO (e.g., linking to "children for sabotage" claims). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS posts a graphic of SCO countries with an American eagle, indicating RF IO to highlight geopolitical alignments and counter US influence, emphasizing a multi-polar world order. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ASTRA and TASS post videos of Putin thanking China for visa-free travel and announcing Russia will reciprocate, reinforcing RF's intent to deepen strategic ties and economic cooperation with China, further challenging Western influence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Новости Москвы reports a "Beer Nemarathon" festival in Moscow, indicating RF's intent to project normalcy and cultural resilience despite the ongoing conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Операция Z reports 16 German candidates died before elections, an unsubstantiated claim likely intended to sow distrust in Western democracies and undermine the legitimacy of their political processes. (LOW CONFIDENCE on veracity; HIGH CONFIDENCE on intent) TASS reports Italy will not send troops to Ukraine, as stated by PM Meloni, which RF will leverage to highlight divisions within the "Coalition of the Willing" and undermine the perceived unity of support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS also quotes Putin claiming "metat biser" (casting pearls before swine) before Rutte is useless, continuing to delegitimize Western leaders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Colonelcassad shares a meme criticizing US demands for Europe to stop buying Russian oil, indicating an RF IO effort to exploit Western economic divisions and fuel anti-American sentiment within Europe. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: TASS reports that accusations of RF not paying insurance after the AZAL plane catastrophe are cynical and false, according to the RF Ministry of Foreign Affairs, indicating RF's intent to defend its international reputation and counter negative narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: НгП раZVедка quotes "The Narcissist" (Zelenskyy) saying "Putin will be forced to peace. We need to take away the Russian military machine's means of producing weapons," indicating an RF IO intent to portray Ukrainian leadership as aggressive and unrealistic, and the conflict as an existential threat to Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: TASS reports Washington authorities sued the Trump administration for deploying the National Guard to the city, indicating an RF IO intent to highlight internal US political divisions and instability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: НгП раZVедка uses derogatory language to dismiss Ukrainian political figures and the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting, continuing RF's intent to delegitimize Ukrainian leadership and international support through personal attacks and satire. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Новости Москвы reporting the death of a Sumatran orangutan in the Moscow Zoo indicates RF's intent to project normalcy and divert attention. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts a video about the head of the Investigative Committee investigating a military serviceman's house being set on fire, indicating an RF intent to demonstrate active investigation of internal security threats, potentially to reassure the public or attribute blame. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Стрелков Игорь Иванович (Strelkov) posts a message calling for preparation for "a big war and new attempts at destabilization," indicating a hardline nationalist intent to advocate for an escalatory military posture and to project an internal sense of threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: TASS posts a quote attributed to Pavel Durov ("Slavic states never invaded Europe without reason, but the reverse happened repeatedly"), indicating an RF IO intent to propagate historical revisionism and justify current actions by portraying Russia as historically defensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: ASTRA posts a video with the caption: "Kim Jong Un took his own toilet to the summit in China, and his staff carefully destroyed his bio-traces," reflecting a UAF/Western IO intent to highlight eccentricities of authoritarian leaders allied with RF, subtly undermining their credibility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Операция Z reports (citing Russian Spring military correspondents) that Italy and Poland will not send troops to Ukraine, as stated by their authorities, indicating an RF IO intent to highlight divisions within the "Coalition of the Willing" and undermine support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: TASS reports U.S. will cut defense aid for Russia-bordering countries. This is an RF IO amplification of a Western media report, aiming to highlight potential reductions in Western support and sow doubt among US allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts several identical photo messages with a derogatory caption expressing alarm about changing demographics in a Yekaterinburg school. This is a clear RF IO effort to foment internal social tensions, nationalist sentiment, and anti-immigrant narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Басурин о главном posts two identical photo messages referencing the Cuban Missile Crisis (Sep 4, 1962), and a caption stating Kennedy warned Castro, and Moscow stated US intervention would lead to global conflict. This is a significant RF IO effort to draw historical parallels, implicitly threatening nuclear escalation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: AV БогомаZ (Bryansk governor) posts a text message "Another vile crime of the Armed Forces of Ukraine." This is an immediate RF IO response to blame Ukraine for alleged cross-border attacks, likely to justify RF's own actions or rally internal support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Военкор Котенок posts two identical photo messages with the caption "Main news today (04.09.2025)." This is a routine RF milblogger IO effort to provide curated daily news, shaping the narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts two identical video messages depicting a heated verbal exchange between two individuals, framed to highlight inter-ethnic tensions within migrant communities in Europe, undermining Ukrainian integration and Western values, while diverting attention from RF actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts two identical photo messages with the caption "Marathon 'Hundreds'" (referencing drones) showing burnt drones, and a follow-up message stating "The collection is sadly going poorly." This is RF milblogger IO attempting to galvanize public support and crowdfunding for drones, indicating a persistent need for UAVs and high attrition. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Рыбарь posts a text message: "The SMO changed a lot." This is an RF milblogger's reflective statement, likely implying a significant and lasting impact of the conflict on Russian society or military, which could be leveraged for various IO narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts two identical photo messages with the caption "Pavlo is very offended by the West, very. What happened?" This is RF IO attempting to highlight perceived discontent or disagreements among Ukrainian figures or with Western partners, aiming to sow distrust and undermine UAF's international relationships. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Kotsnews posts two identical photo messages with a caption stating 84% of respondents couldn't name a hero of the Soviet-Japanese War, urging them to study history. This is RF IO engaging in historical education/revisionism, likely to promote specific historical narratives and national identity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Courses of Action (COAs):

  • MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action):

    1. RF will continue to **maintain intense offensive pressure on the Sieversk axis to achieve an operational encirclement. RF will likely commit its main effort to seizing full control of Kupyansk, escalating urban combat and attempting to interdict UAF reinforcements, capitalizing on its confirmed presence and infiltration attempts in the city, and capitalizing on fragmented UAF defenses, and conducting reconnaissance-in-force toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF will actively promote claims of UAF surrender in Kupyansk through its IO, even if unverified. RF will seek to consolidate and exploit claimed gains around Kamyshevakha to advance further in Donetsk Oblast, potentially threatening access to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF will attempt to exploit claimed control of Yanvarske and its current assaults on Novoselivka to further advance westward in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, establishing new forward positions and potentially securing key logistical routes, explicitly aiming to strengthen fire pressure on Velikomikhailovka. RF will also likely prepare for offensive operations in the Kherson direction, evidenced by claims of UAF mining Karantynny Island, aiming to seize further territory in southern Ukraine, and consolidating claims of control over Dnipro delta islands. RF will continue localized ground advances, as reported near Chervonaya Dibrova and Grigorievka, and now including a 5-hectare forest in LNR, to achieve small tactical gains and probe UAF defenses. RF milbloggers will continue to provide "Frontline summaries" to frame these operations. RF will actively seek to disrupt UAF logistics via further strikes on railway infrastructure and will continue air-launched КАБ strikes, expanding to new areas like Donetsk Oblast and Sumy Oblast, and specifically targeting UAF defense industry, and will continue indiscriminate shelling/drone attacks on civilian population centers (e.g., Kostiantynivka, Nikopol region, Chuhuiv community, Odesa/Fontanka, Pokrovsk), including use of FPV drones. RF will likely attempt to conduct further strikes on transportation infrastructure to disrupt UAF logistics and movement. RF will continue to actively target UAF UAV operator locations and UAV launch points. RF will continue to target educational facilities, as evidenced by the "Molniya" UAV strike on a Kharkiv university, and humanitarian demining missions, as seen in Chernihiv (now reframed by RF as a legitimate military target through IO, while claiming destruction of UAF observation/evacuation points in Druzhkivka). New Shahed threats in Donetsk Oblast and towards Belozerske/Dobropillya are consistent with this. UAF special forces operations in Sumy Oblast are a new dynamic to this MLCOA, with RF likely to counter these incursions with increased security or fire. RF will continue to utilize anti-thermal imaging cloaks to facilitate covert infiltration operations. RF will continue to use heavy unguided munitions like FAB-3000 against suspected UAF strongpoints or troop concentrations. RF forces have made their largest regrouping since 2022 and are preparing for a "decisive battle" for the rest of Donetsk Oblast, according to UAF assessment and Finnish/Ukrainian sources. Bloomberg also reports RF preparing a new offensive against Ukraine. RF will continue to repel UAF assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. RF will continue drone-guided strikes on fortified positions and personnel, particularly on the Zaporizhzhia front, using heavy equipment and small infantry groups. RF will continue to develop and promote military innovations such as the "Ant" exoskeleton. RF milbloggers will continue to call for public support and crowdfunding for ground forces. RF will continue to employ ATGMs (e.g., Fagot) against UAF armored vehicles and ground positions. RF will continue UAV operator training, as observed in the Konstantinovsky direction, to sustain and improve drone warfare capabilities. RF will actively seek to interdict and capture Ukrainian DRG (sabotage and reconnaissance groups) operating in its border regions, as evidenced by the claimed capture in Bryansk Oblast, and by the reported search for DRGs in Kaluga Oblast, and will exploit these incidents for IO. RF special forces will actively conduct reconnaissance missions in new operational areas, such as west of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, to support and precede ground assaults. RF will continue its offensive into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, solidifying claimed control over Novoselivka and probing further westward. RF will attempt to consolidate claimed control of Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF will continue ground operations in the Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka direction. RF MoD will claim "complete liberation of DNR territory" and a continued offensive into Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, focusing on securing administrative borders and expanding zones of control. RF will continue to use drone-guided artillery strikes on UAF positions in Zaporizhzhia. RF will intensify a new large-scale offensive in the east, deploying additional units to Donetsk Oblast. RF will aggressively push to consolidate control in Novoselovka, Dnipropetrovsk region, and expand operations further west. RF will likely increase drone (FPV) and kamikaze drone (UAV) strikes against UAF light vehicles, motorcycles, and personnel on the ground, as observed in the БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video. RF will continue to publish daily updates on the "progress of special military operation" to frame the overall narrative of its ground operations. RF will continue to interdict UAF DRG movements, particularly in riverine island zones. RF will maintain localized ground advances in the Sumy direction. RF will seek to identify and destroy high-value UAF artillery systems such as the PzH 2000. RF will leverage Rojin's commentary on the "naval blockade of Odesa" to project capability and strategic intent. RF will also continue its counter-drone operations using snipers and thermal sights, as claimed in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. RF will also continue aerial bombing of civilian targets, as demonstrated by the strike on Kostiantynivka hospital. RF will likely increase efforts to interdict UAF counter-logistics operations, such as the reported strike on an RF ammo depot in Selydove. RF's Vostok Group of Forces will continue to rely on COTS drones (e.g., Mavic 3) for reconnaissance and combat support, indicating a persistent adaptation to modern drone warfare, while potentially supplementing its own drone production capabilities. RF will continue to enforce the replacement of vehicle registration documents in "Novorossiya" to solidify its control over occupied territories. RF will continue to develop and deploy specialized engineering equipment, such as the "Courier" laser demining system, to clear obstacles and facilitate ground advances. Confidence: HIGH
    2. RF will conduct **sustained, medium-to-high volume drone and missile strikes, with a heightened focus on defense industry, fuel, and railway infrastructure targets, alongside opportunistic strikes on population centers resulting in civilian casualties, and now also targeting educational institutions and humanitarian demining missions (which RF will likely reframe as legitimate military targets), and a renewed focus on Odesa/Fontanka from the Black Sea with a large group of Shaheds. Although the latest wave against Odesa was successfully intercepted, RF will likely launch subsequent waves. Expect continued ballistic missile launches from the northeast and south (Tuzly/Mykolaivka), high-speed targets on Sumy (another explosion reported), and КАБ launches on Zaporizhzhia, and now additionally targeting Kharkiv Oblast and Donetsk Oblast. Expect the use of FAB-3000 to become a more regular feature against suspected UAF strongpoints or troop concentrations. RF will also continue aerial strikes on UAF riverine/naval assets. RF will continue to test missile/rocket launch capabilities, as seen in Rybar's "Eyes on Orbit" videos. Expect continued targeting of critical infrastructure, logistics hubs, and military installations across Ukraine. RF will leverage claimed "modernized drones" and precision munitions like Lancet to target UAF military assets. The new ЛМУР strike on a UAF UAV launch point is indicative of RF's continued focus on degrading UAF drone capabilities. New UAV groups targeting various Ukrainian regions are consistent with this COA. New Shahed threats in Donetsk Oblast and towards Belozerske/Dobropillya are also consistent with this. New КАБ launches on Sumy Oblast extend this aerial threat. The UAV strike in Krasnodar Krai may provoke increased RF air defense measures or a more aggressive posture for cross-border strikes. RF will also claim successful interception of Ukrainian UAVs over its territory (e.g., Rostov Oblast) to project defensive capabilities. RF will also leverage its diverse drone capabilities, including "Rubikon" air defense combat groups, for enhanced reconnaissance and target acquisition. The new ЛМУР strike on a UAF UAV launch point is indicative of RF's continued focus on degrading UAF drone capabilities. New UAV groups targeting various Ukrainian regions are consistent with this COA. New Shahed threats in Donetsk Oblast and towards Belozerske/Dobropillya are also consistent with this. New КАБ launches on Sumy Oblast extend this aerial threat. The UAV strike in Krasnodar Krai may provoke increased RF air defense measures or a more aggressive posture for cross-border strikes. RF will also claim successful interception of Ukrainian UAVs over its territory (e.g., Rostov Oblast) to project defensive capabilities. RF will also leverage its diverse drone capabilities, including "Rubikon" air defense combat groups, for enhanced reconnaissance and target acquisition. The newly detected UAV group from northern Sumy to Chernihiv Oblast is consistent with this sustained aerial reconnaissance and strike COA. RF will also actively employ electronic warfare (EW) to counter UAF drone activity, particularly on the Zaporizhzhia front. RF will continue to defend its airspace against UAF cross-border UAV strikes. RF attacked with 112 UAVs overnight, with 28 UAVs confirmed to have reached their targets, indicating continued capacity for large-scale, adaptive aerial assaults. RF milbloggers will continue to claim higher numbers of downed Ukrainian drones. RF will continue to express concerns about UAF's alleged development of ground-based cruise missiles. RF will continue to employ long-range artillery systems, such as 2S44 Giatsint-K, for precision strikes against UAF command posts, strongholds, and other fixed targets, particularly in contested areas like Krasnoarmeysk. RF will continue to strike UAF UAV command posts, particularly in the Kupyansk tactical direction, using helicopter assets. RF will continue to target civilian areas in Zaporizhzhia (4 wounded) and Orikhiv (2 wounded), Druzhkivka (7 wounded), and Kozacha Lopan (2 killed, 2 wounded) with drones/artillery, resulting in further casualties. RF will likely intensify ISR and potentially strikes near its northwestern border, in response to NATO ISR flights. RF will continue FPV drone operations against UAF communications infrastructure. RF will likely respond to UAF deep strikes into Krasnodar Krai and Rostov Oblast with increased missile/drone activity or enhanced border security. RF will continue to utilize long-range artillery against UAF self-propelled howitzers and other assets. RF will actively counter UAF drone strikes on its military vehicles. RF will increase drone and missile strikes in northern regions (Chernihiv, Sumy) and potentially use long-range artillery against targets such as bridges/infrastructure, as seen in the milblogger videos (Malva/Genocide claim). RF will specifically target UAF armored vehicles and Starlink satellite communication terminals with drones, as demonstrated by the "Rubikon" operators, aiming to degrade UAF's mobility and C2 capabilities. RF will sustain strikes on critical infrastructure, exemplified by the power outage in Sumy. RF will likely adapt its drone tactics based on acoustic recognition systems. RF will continue to use drone-guided precision strikes against concealed targets in wooded areas. RF will continue to use tactical aviation to destroy high-value UAF artillery. RF's animated strike scheme confirms intent for widespread aerial operations. RF will continue to conduct ballistic missile strikes on Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Chernihiv, as indicated by recent alerts and impacts. RF will increase air defense measures in border regions to counter cross-border incursions, following the reported drone violation of Polish airspace. RF Air Force threats in Chernihiv, Kyiv, and Poltava Oblast, and aviation weapon use in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia, indicate continued aerial surveillance and strike activity in these regions. Confidence: HIGH
    3. RF Information Operations will heavily amplify claims of ground victories and frame Western support as escalatory and a sign of weakness/disunity (e.g., "Coalition of the Resolute" divisions, Witkoff's early departure, Trump's statements on oil/China, Kallas's comments on RF/China narrative, Italy/Poland not sending troops, US cutting defense aid to border countries). Narratives will focus on discrediting Ukrainian leadership (e.g., "children for sabotage," "Ukrainian drug labs," German election conspiracy theories, Zelenskyy as "military dictator," "Colombian mercenaries," "Narcissist" comments), justifying RF actions with threats (Putin's "resort to weapons" statement, Cuban Missile Crisis parallels), and projecting RF's economic and military resilience (e.g., Shilka parade, RF not paying insurance is false, Putin thanking China for visa-free travel, Durov's historical revisionism, Kazan Helicopter Plant anniversary, main news summaries). Diplomatic outreach to non-Western nations (China, DPRK, Russian-Arab summit, humanitarian dialogue with Ukraine via Moskalkova) will continue to solidify an anti-Western bloc. RF will maintain tight internal information control in border regions (Belgorod governor's directives) and use social media to influence public opinion, including new VK channels. IO will also highlight internal Ukrainian challenges (TCC incident, "peaceful preaching" sentencing) and Western instability (e.g., German election conspiracy theories, Washington suing Trump administration). RF will enforce administrative measures in occupied territories (vehicle registration). RF IO will leverage cultural news and celebrity events (Armani death, Hemingway, Efremov, "Beer Nemarathon", orangutan death, Huawei smartphone launches) to project normalcy and divert attention from the conflict. RF IO will likely intensify negative portrayals of migrant groups within Russia, as seen with Rybar's "Uzbek ethnic crime" video, and use narratives of demographic shifts (Yekaterinburg school) to stir nationalist sentiment. RF will continue to highlight domestic humanitarian appeals to humanize its military (e.g., Staromlynovka baby delivery) and internal security efforts (Investigative Committee investigation of serviceman's house fire, Bryansk governor's claims). RF will attempt to monitor and respond to internal dissent (Strelkov's posts) to maintain its overall narrative. RF will attempt to co-opt Ukrainian military imagery for its own IO. RF IO will continue to use crowdfunding appeals for drones, implicitly acknowledging high attrition. RF IO will promote historical narratives that support its current geopolitical stance. Confidence: HIGH
    • Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
      1. Expanded Conventional Offensive with Massed Air-to-Ground Strikes and Strategic Amphibious Landings: RF launches a massive, multi-pronged ground offensive across multiple axes, including a full-scale assault into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, aiming to capture major industrial centers and establish a deep salient. This would be preceded by massed tactical aviation strikes using heavy glide bombs (FAB-3000 at scale) and a saturation of ballistic missiles (including DPRK-supplied) and advanced drones, designed to overwhelm UAF air defenses and degrade C2 across the entire front. Concurrently, RF conducts large-scale amphibious landings in the Kherson direction, aiming to secure multiple river crossings and isolate UAF forces on the right bank, potentially coupled with a deep airborne assault to seize critical infrastructure behind the lines. This would be supported by widespread EW to cripple UAF communications and ISR, and could involve a significant disregard for international borders, as evidenced by recent drone incursions into Polish airspace. The objective would be to force a rapid collapse of UAF defenses and create a new, militarily advantageous "frozen conflict" line, causing mass casualties and a severe humanitarian crisis. The recent strike on Kostiantynivka hospital and deaths in Illinivka, alongside the Chernihiv demining strike (and RF's subsequent re-framing as a legitimate military target), demonstrate a willingness to inflict widespread civilian casualties during such an offensive. The confirmed regrouping of RF forces since 2022 further supports the potential for a large-scale, decisive operation. RF's demonstration of advanced demining capabilities (Courier system) suggests preparation for clearing obstacles in a major ground advance. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
      2. Escalation to Chemical/Biological Attack with Cyber-Kinetic Fusion against Critical Infrastructure and DIB: RF initiates a targeted chemical or biological agent attack on a Ukrainian urban center or military installation (potentially disguised as a false flag), synchronized with a devastating cyberattack designed to cripple Ukraine's energy grid, financial system, and military C2. This would be immediately followed by precision conventional strikes targeting Ukraine's emerging ballistic missile (FP-7, FP-9) and air defense R&D and production facilities, using real-time intelligence from enhanced ISR. A global information warfare campaign using deepfakes and coordinated disinformation would frame Ukraine or NATO as the aggressor, aiming to fracture international support and justify RF's actions. This hybrid attack would be intended to break Ukraine's will to fight, prevent its long-term defense build-up, and create irreversible damage to its statehood, potentially leveraging narratives of "children for sabotage" and "Ukrainian drug labs" to justify extreme measures. Confidence: LOW

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Overall Posture: UAF maintains a determined defensive posture, particularly in Kupyansk and Sieversk, while demonstrating tactical innovation and resilience. Readiness is high across most units, though sustained combat and RF deep strikes present continuous challenges.
• Kupyansk/Sieversk Front: Actively engaged in defense, denying significant RF breakthroughs despite intense pressure. UAF denies RF control of Kupyansk city center, confirming only infiltration attempts that are being countered. Oleg Synegubov's working trip highlights the severity and focus on this direction. UAF is rapidly restoring power in Lozovsky district after RF shelling, demonstrating quick response capabilities. NEW: UAF's "Apachi" unit is actively destroying attacking enemy forces in the Sieversk direction, demonstrating continued effective defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Southern/Eastern Fronts: Maintaining defensive operations, conducting localized strikes against RF assets, and adapting to RF tactics (e.g., anti-thermal cloaks). Active engagement of Russian BMPs in Zaporizhzhia by the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade. Minister of Defense working on the Zaporizhzhia direction, indicating high-level attention to this new threat axis. Increased FPV drone strikes against RF in Zaporizhzhia. Dnipropetrovsk ODA reports sustained FPV drone and artillery attacks in Nikopol region, indicating active UAF defense. UAF Command Staff in Zaporizhzhia Oblast holding meeting, indicating high-level coordination. "Phoenix" unit successfully destroying RF tank, artillery, and robotic complex demonstrates continued offensive capability. "Active battles" reported in Pokrovsko-Dobropolsk direction indicate UAF forces are engaged and holding.
• Air Defense: Operating under extreme pressure, but demonstrating proficiency in intercepting a high volume of RF UAVs, including a large group targeting Odesa. New AD systems from Nordic/Baltic partners are anticipated. "WU Samurai" unit successfully shooting down Gerbera and Lancet drones. UAF is actively responding to and reporting explosions in Sumy, indicating continuous air defense operations. NEW: Syrsky is creating an echeloned system to counter enemy "Shaheds," indicating a strategic, multi-layered approach to air defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Tactical Innovation: Successful deployment of "NC13" ground robotic complexes by the 3rd Assault Brigade for combat, evacuation, and logistics, indicating a proactive approach to modern warfare. Development and use of heavy copters "Vampire" by the 82nd Airmobile Brigade for night bombing missions. UAF is actively developing and demonstrating FPV drones resistant to RF Electronic Warfare (EW), potentially carrying significant munitions, as seen on the Zaporizhzhia front. DeepState reports 210th Separate Assault Regiment (OSHP) received FPV drones on fiber optics.
• Domestic Defense Industry: Continued production of artillery and drones. Announcement by "Fire Point" of FP-7 and FP-9 ballistic missile and air defense system development is a significant step towards long-range strike and enhanced IAMD capabilities.
• Special Forces: Actively conducting "rusorez" operations in Sumy Oblast and successful counter-UAV operations in Pokrovsk direction. UAF General Staff photos show riverine training, indicating readiness for special operations.
• Logistics: Major port investment project signals long-term economic and logistical planning and resilience. Mykolaiv receiving fresh water after 2022 is a significant infrastructure victory.
• Morale/Training: UAF General Staff actively engaging in morale-boosting IO, including sharing videos of adaptation courses for Air Assault Forces. Soldiers training to counter drones. High-level leadership directly engaging with frontline units (Synegubov in Kupyansk, Minister of Defense in Zaporizhzhia). Strong public support for crowdfunding. POW family meetings indicate commitment to personnel welfare. The capture of 9 RF soldiers by 4 UAF soldiers on their first mission is a significant morale booster.
• Counter-Intelligence: SBU and National Police continue to successfully detain RF agents involved in sabotage and espionage, including a significant recent success in Kyiv, Lviv, and Volyn Oblasts (5 agents, 3 under 18). Detention of 5 additional agents for arson and sabotage. Prosecutor General's Office actively combating illicit trade supporting RF.
• Desertion Policy: Verkhovna Rada reinstating criminal liability for unauthorized absence (СЗЧ), but also simplifying the return to service, indicating efforts to manage manpower and discipline while encouraging reintegration.
• New UAF Capabilities: UAF Phoenix unit (DPSU) successfully destroyed an RF tank, artillery, and a ground robotic complex in Donetsk Oblast. UAF aviation is conducting strikes against RF positions, demonstrating continued air support capabilities.
• Law Enforcement: Ukrainian police conducting routine traffic stops, indicating functioning civilian governance in non-combat areas. However, reports of gunfire on a TCC group near Lutsk suggest localized internal security challenges or resistance to mobilization efforts.
• Air Defense/Ballistic Missile Response: UAF Air Force, KMVA, and regional administrations are issuing immediate alerts and responding to ballistic missile threats in Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, and Sumy.
• Resilience of Education: Children attending school in underground classrooms in Kharkiv demonstrates remarkable resilience and commitment to education despite ongoing conflict.
• Internal Anti-Corruption Efforts: Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor's Office uncovering new abuses highlights ongoing efforts to combat corruption at regional levels. The VAKS decision regarding Tetiana Krupa is another example of ongoing anti-corruption efforts. An interim measure for SBU General Vityuk indicates continued focus on accountability.
• Civilian Support Infrastructure: KMVA highlighting efforts to make assistance "maximally accessible and understandable" (e.g., "Ye Opora" app) shows ongoing adaptation for civilian support under wartime conditions.
• Zelenskyy Diplomacy: President Zelenskyy's active participation in the "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting with over 30 countries demonstrates sustained diplomatic efforts to secure long-term security guarantees and immediate military support. He emphasizes that security guarantees must be legislated at a parliamentary level, indicating a focus on formalizing commitments. Zelenskyy's statements about Trump calling on Hungary and Slovakia to stop buying Russian oil demonstrate UAF's continued efforts to influence and leverage international partners.
• General Staff Updates: UAF General Staff provides regular operational updates, reinforcing transparency and command visibility.
• Demining Efforts: Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov reports successful demining of almost 212 hectares in a week, indicating ongoing efforts to restore land and protect civilians.
• Veteran Policy (Kyiv): KMVA reports a meeting discussing the "Strategy for Veteran Policy until 2030" and its implementation in Kyiv, indicating forward-looking planning for veteran integration and welfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• POW Issues: Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War meeting with US Embassy representatives indicates ongoing diplomatic efforts regarding POWs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• War Crime Documentation: Prosecutor General's Office actively documenting and investigating RF war crimes, as seen in the Kherson torture and robbery report, contributing to legal accountability efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kryvyi Rih Stability: Олександр Вілкул providing a briefing reinforces local command oversight and stability in Kryvyi Rih. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Mobilization Transparency: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 showcasing TCC groups with body cameras for public notification indicates UAF's efforts to increase transparency in mobilization efforts and counter negative narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) "Резерв+" expanded functions for online fine payment is an administrative success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• International Support Diplomacy: Zelenskyy's press conference with Macron, highlighting allied military presence and EU membership as security guarantees, demonstrates proactive diplomacy to secure long-term defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Internal Legal Oversight: The report on the SBU General Vityuk choosing an interim measure reflects UAF's commitment to internal legal processes and accountability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Human Rights Concerns (Internal): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts about a four-year prison sentence for "peaceful preaching," which if pertaining to Ukraine, could indicate internal human rights concerns or misuse of legal processes, potentially impacting public sentiment and requiring internal review. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Daily Information Summary: РБК-Україна providing a daily summary shows UAF's efforts to keep the public informed and focused. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:
  • Air Defense Interceptions: Successful neutralization of 84 out of 112 RF UAVs overnight, including all 14 Shaheds targeting Odesa/Fontanka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Successful shootdown of 2 "Gerbera" and 1 "Lancet" drone by "WU Samurai." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Syrsky developing an echeloned system to counter Shaheds is a strategic success for long-term air defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF SAM System Destruction: Destruction of an S-300V SAM system in Zaporizhzhia direction and claims of destroying S-300 PU and 9S36 radar. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Deep Strikes into RF Territory: Drone attacks on 17 Russian oil refineries in August, disabling 24.2% of RF refining capacity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Likely strike on two RF radar complexes in Rostov. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
  • Naval Strikes (Crimea): Successful "Flamingo" cruise missile strike on six RF hovercraft (four visually confirmed) at a border base in Crimea, with one serviceman killed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ground Robotics Deployment: Successful deployment of "NC13" ground robotic complexes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Artillery/Vehicle/Personnel Destruction: Successful drone strikes against RF D-20 artillery and a 2S3 self-propelled howitzer. Successful strike on a Russian engineering vehicle. Engagement of RF BMPs by 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade in Zaporizhzhia. FPV drone strike on RF positions and vehicles in Zaporizhzhia. "Phoenix" unit successfully destroying an RF tank, artillery, a ground robotic complex, and personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: "Apachi" unit successfully destroying attacking enemy forces in Sieversk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Counter-Infiltration: Successful targeting of RF infiltration attempts using anti-thermal imaging cloaks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Counter-Intelligence: Detention of 5 RF agents (3 under 18) preparing sabotage in Kyiv, Lviv, and Volyn Oblasts. Detention of 5 additional agents for arson and sabotage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) SBU General Vityuk's interim measure reflects ongoing internal legal processes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Domestic Missile Development: Announcement by "Fire Point" of FP-7 and FP-9 ballistic missile and air defense system development. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Phoenix Unit Success: Phoenix unit operators (DPSU) destroyed an RF tank, artillery piece, and ground robotic complex in Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Aviation Strikes: Ukrainian aviation actively striking RF occupier positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Counter-RF Maneuvers (Lyman Direction): UAF 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade's reconnaissance company effectively engaging RF personnel in wooded areas, demonstrating successful counter-maneuvers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • FPV Drone Strikes (Kherson): Successful FPV drone strike eliminating two RF occupiers in Kherson direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Successful Diplomatic Engagement: "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting in Paris, with over 30 countries participating to finalize security guarantees and support. Commitments to long-range missile supply. Macron states 26 countries are ready to send troops or support for security. Macron indicates US contribution to guarantees will be determined soon. Zelenskyy emphasizes parliamentary approval and EU membership. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports up to 30,000 foreign soldiers for Ukraine from the "Coalition of the Willing." Zelenskyy's press conference with Macron is a key success. Meeting with US Embassy on POW issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Ammunition Depot Strike: UAF claims a successful strike on an RF ammunition depot in occupied Selydove, which would significantly degrade RF logistical capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Demining Success: Almost 212 hectares of territory in Kharkiv Oblast were demined in a week. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF FPV Drone Resupply: 210th Separate Assault Regiment (OSHP) received a batch of FPV drones on fiber optics, enhancing UAF tactical capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • War Crime Documentation: The Prosecutor General's Office report on torture and robbery in Kherson is a success in documenting RF war crimes for future accountability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Mobilization Transparency: TCC and National Police groups working with body cameras during public notification efforts demonstrates a success in transparency and public relations for UAF mobilization. "Резерв+" expanded functions for online fine payment is an administrative success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF POW Capture: Four UAF soldiers capturing nine RF soldiers is a clear tactical success and a morale boost. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Rapid Infrastructure Repair: Power being reconnected in Lozovsky district after RF shelling demonstrates UAF's quick response and resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • International Economic Engagement: Meeting between Zaporizhzhia regional leadership and JERU representatives signifies successful engagement for reconstruction and development. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Setbacks:
  • Infrastructure Damage from Strikes: Power outage in Sumy due to RF strike on critical infrastructure. Civilian casualties and damage in Zaporizhzhia (4 wounded), Orikhiv (2 wounded), Druzhkivka (7 wounded), and Kozacha Lopan (2 killed, 2 wounded) from RF strikes. Fire in Odesa warehouse. Damage in Sloviansk and Kharkiv from night attacks. Aerial bombing of a hospital in Kostiantynivka and a nearby village, with 2 deaths in Illinivka. Damaged bridge and urban strike on Zaporizhzhia front. New missile alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast. New Shahed threat to Odesa Oblast. Nikopol region suffered sustained FPV drone and artillery attacks. Nova Poshta branch in Druzhkivka damaged by night shelling. RF destruction of Lozovaya substation in Kupyansk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Continued RF UAV threats to Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts indicate ongoing pressure and potential for further damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Infiltration in Kupyansk: DeepState confirms RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk, despite UAF denials of "firm control." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Contested Territorial Claims (Novoselivka, Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia): RF claims liberation and control of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with video evidence. MoD Russia explicitly reports 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade in Novoselovka. These claimed gains, if confirmed, represent a significant loss of territory and opening of a new axis. STERNENKO confirms increased RF use of heavy equipment and small infantry groups for assaults on the Zaporizhzhia direction. "Active battles" in Pokrovsko-Dobropolsk direction suggest UAF is under pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Civilian Water Crisis: Severe humanitarian situation with water shortages in occupied Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ballistic Missile Impacts: Explosions heard in Sumy and Chernihiv following ballistic missile alerts, indicating successful RF strikes or missile failures with ground impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Ballistic Missile Strike on Humanitarian Mission (Chernihiv): A ballistic missile strike on a humanitarian demining mission in Chernihiv Oblast resulted in one fatality and two wounded, which has now increased to 5 wounded. This represents a direct and tragic impact on humanitarian efforts. RF attempts to reframe this as a legitimate strike on a UAV launch point are part of their IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Diplomatic Setback (Witkoff's Early Departure): Witkoff's early departure from the "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting in Paris could be perceived as a minor setback or a sign of internal discord, despite the overall positive outcome. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Security Incident (Volyn): Reports of gunfire against a TCC group in a village near Lutsk, Volyn Oblast, indicate potential internal resistance to mobilization efforts, which could divert resources and impact manpower. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Human Rights Concerns (Internal): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts about a four-year prison sentence for "peaceful preaching," which if pertaining to Ukraine, could be a setback for internal human rights and create negative public sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Tactical Success Claims: RF claims UAF observation and evacuation points were destroyed in Druzhkivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's videos showing destroyed UAF mortar positions, vehicles, and a downed 'Baba-Yaga' drone in Kharkiv direction indicate tactical setbacks for UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Information Environment Challenge: Reports of US cutting defense aid to Russia-bordering countries, amplified by UAF IO, could pose a challenge to maintaining morale and international support, if perceived as a weakening of resolve. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Air Defense Munitions: Continuous high expenditure of interceptors to counter RF drone and missile attacks. Urgent need for replenishment and expanded domestic production, especially for new AD systems from Nordic/Baltic countries. NEW: Syrsky's initiative for an echeloned counter-Shahed system will require significant resources for development, procurement, and deployment of new technologies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• ISR Assets: Critical need for enhanced ISR, particularly in Kupyansk, Donetsk Oblast, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district), and Zaporizhzhia region, to verify RF ground truth and track new offensives.
• Counter-UAS Technology: Continued requirement for advanced EW and kinetic solutions to counter evolving RF drone tactics, including FPVs and anti-thermal cloaks.
• Humanitarian Aid: Ongoing need for humanitarian assistance in frontline areas and occupied territories, particularly for water and medical supplies (e.g., occupied Donetsk water shortage), and support for demining operations.
• Manpower Management: Managing criminal liability for unauthorized absences (СЗЧ) and simplifying return to service to optimize manpower. Addressing internal resistance to mobilization (e.g., TCC incident near Lutsk).
• Psychological Support: Increased need for psychological support for military personnel returning from combat, with an observed shortage of qualified psychologists in Russia, implying a similar need for UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Critical Infrastructure Repair: Significant resources are required for rapid repair of critical infrastructure damaged by RF strikes (e.g., power in Sumy, water in Mykolaiv, Nova Poshta in Druzhkivka, Lozovaya substation in Kupyansk). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Funding for FPV Drones: Continued crowdfunding and state investment for advanced FPV drones that are EW-resistant, as highlighted by the Zaporizhzhia front video, and for fiber-optic FPV drones, as demonstrated by the 210th OSHP. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Demining Resources: Continued need for resources to sustain demining efforts, particularly in heavily contaminated areas like Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Military Logistics (Heavy Equipment): The increased RF use of heavy equipment and small infantry groups on the Zaporizhzhia direction will necessitate UAF to deploy or strengthen counter-heavy equipment capabilities, requiring specialized munitions and platforms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Judicial Resources (Anti-Corruption): The high-profile case of Tetiana Krupa and SBU General Vityuk requires continued attention to demonstrate rule of law and anti-corruption efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Internal Legal Review (Human Rights): The case of "peaceful preaching" resulting in a four-year prison sentence, if pertaining to Ukraine, could constrain UAF's soft power and necessitate internal review. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF Propaganda:

  • False Claims of Success: Heavily amplifying claims of "liberating" Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia), "complete liberation of DNR," and significant gains in Kupyansk, often with drone footage to bolster credibility, despite UAF denials. Promoting claimed capture of a Ukrainian DRG in Bryansk Oblast and search for others in Kaluga Oblast. Promoting narrative of "decisive battle" for Donbas. Explicitly claiming 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade in Novoselovka, Dnipropetrovsk region. Claiming destruction of Lozovaya substation in Kupyansk direction and UAF observation/evacuation points in Druzhkivka. Claiming successful strikes against UAF mortar positions, vehicles, and downed drones in Kharkiv direction. Projecting success through showcasing helicopter production and drone operations. Glorifying proxy forces ("Somali", "Piatnashka", "legendary militiamen").
  • Dehumanization/Discrediting Ukraine: Pushing narratives that Ukraine uses children for sabotage (via NYT misattribution), pays mercenaries with funds for deceased families, and that Ukrainian leaders are "military dictators" (Zelenskyy or "cocaine Führer") or "idiots" ("Narcissist"). Attempting to discredit Macron and Pavel Durov. Claiming "vile attacks" by "Ukrainian Nazis" on border regions (Bryansk governor's statement). Alleging that Ukrainian special services are running drug labs in Russia (Novosibirsk). Utilizing "Uzbek ethnic crime" narrative to stir social division, now reinforced by a video claiming inter-ethnic tensions in Poland, using derogatory terms for Ukrainians and Central Asians. Claims UAF fought Colombian mercenaries. Co-opting Ukrainian military imagery for pro-RF messaging ("SVO fighters don't advise bad things!"). Attempting to link internal Russian juvenile crime issues to Ukrainian sabotage claims. Documenting alleged Ukrainian war crimes (Kherson torture by "Akhmat") while simultaneously re-framing its own strikes (Chernihiv).
  • Western Disunity/Weakness: Framing the "Coalition of the Willing/Resolute" as ineffective or divided ("Hesitant Coalition" split into three camps, "idiots' meeting"), waiting for Trump, and highlighting Witkoff's early departure. Amplifying statements (Trump, Sarkozy) critical of Western support for Ukraine (e.g., Trump telling Europe to stop buying Russian oil, Italy/Poland not sending troops). Spreading disinformation about Germany's involvement in supplying missiles. Maria Zakharova stating Ukraine's security guarantees are "guarantees of danger" for Europe. Portraying France in civil unrest with protests and government instability. Claiming that the EU fears Germany may refuse to participate in a military mission in Ukraine. Naryshkin's claim of "Western leaders going down the path to an abyss" serves to delegitimize Western leadership. Using political cartoons to mock Western support for Ukraine and US demands for Europe to stop buying RF oil. Basurin o Glavnom claims 7 AfD candidates died before German elections, suggesting a conspiracy against the pro-Russian party. Kallas's comments on the RF/China WWII narrative are noted by RF IO, indicating an awareness of external critiques. TASS quotes Putin dismissing Rutte's diplomatic efforts. TASS reporting Washington authorities suing Trump administration to highlight US internal divisions. Amplifying reports of US cutting defense aid to Russia-bordering countries. Alex Parker Returns attempts to highlight perceived Ukrainian discontent with the West.
  • RF Resilience/Strength: Projecting economic stability (dropping mortgage rates, growing bank deposits, Far East development, resumed Aeroflot flights, mobile internet quality in Moscow, Ozon re-registration, Huawei smartphone launches), military strength (Putin touring patriotic centers, new military hardware development - "Ant" exoskeleton, sniper success against drones, promotion of Magomed Daudov to Lt. General, "small air defense" capabilities, Fighterbomber's aerial photo, Vostok Group receiving Mavic 3 drones, Marine Brigade training, Shilka parade, Courier demining robot, RF MoD video on UAV deploying area elimination, claims of downing UAF drones over Rostov/Belgorod/Black Sea), and diplomatic influence (China, DPRK, SCO, GCC, Afghanistan, Laos, Abbas attendance at Russian-Arab summit, humanitarian dialogue with Ukraine via Moskalkova, Putin thanking China for visa-free travel, Durov's historical revisionism). Leveraging internal cultural events (cycling festival in Moscow, Yandex robots, cultural news, celebrity news, Milan mourning for Armani, "Beer Nemarathon", orangutan death) to project normalcy. Promoting a narrative of internal security and law enforcement (Akhmat Circus traffic stop, drug lab discovery, Investigative Committee investigation). Launching new infrastructure projects (Pacific Railway). Using military transportation document extensions to project administrative efficiency. Zyuganov's statements on minimum wage contribute to an internal narrative of economic debate and social welfare. Promoting integration of "Novorossiya" into RF legal/administrative framework (vehicle registration). Promoting veteran adaptation programs. Featuring a humanitarian appeal for a soldier who delivered a baby under shelling, to humanize RF servicemen. Using historical narratives (Sakhalin, Soviet-Japanese War, Cuban Missile Crisis) to reinforce geopolitical claims and threat projection. RF Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement on AZAL plane catastrophe aims to defend RF's international reputation. Daily news summaries (Voyenkor Kotenok) maintain narrative control. Milblogger (Rybar) reflecting on "SMO changed a lot" allows for flexible framing of conflict's impact.
  • Shifting Blame: Accusing Europe of provoking a big war with Russia, and Ukraine/EU of lacking desire for peace. Threatening retaliation (seizure of "British Crown valuables") for asset transfers. Explicitly reframing the Chernihiv humanitarian demining mission strike as a legitimate destruction of a "UAF long-range UAV preparation and launch point" (MoD Russia video and Colonelcassad). Bryansk governor immediately blaming Ukraine for alleged "vile crimes."
  • Internal Control: Prohibiting unofficial information about military operations in Belgorod. Using IO to manage internal issues like conscription challenges or economic cooling (Reshetnikov's statement), and new initiatives for parental responsibility. Attempting to suppress dissent (Murmansk arrest). Banning "extremist" social networks in Belarus. Strelkov's critical posts (SMO format, Gubarev arrest) are examples of internal, albeit nationalist, dissent that RF must manage. Belgorod governor's directives on reporting.
  • Controversial Military Narratives: Z-propagandist Kashevarova claiming units of personnel with hepatitis and HIV are being formed, with distinctive armbands. This is highly problematic and likely intended to shock. Alex Parker Returns' posts on Yekaterinburg schools use highly inflammatory and derogatory language.
  • Psychological Operations: Targeting internal RF audiences with themes of care for soldiers (humanitarian aid, legal services for discharge, crowdfunding), and using "soft" IO like "Soldier's Daily Life" photos with a cat and "Confession behind the balaclava." Projecting Putin as relatable with youth slang. Promoting family reunions (Moskalkova mediation). Highlighting military families' struggles with housing, potentially to garner sympathy or show government awareness. Crowdfunding appeals for drones (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА) are designed to elicit empathy and material support.
  • Geopolitical Alignment: Emphasizing China's role in a new world order, and RF's deepening ties with non-Western nations. Leveraging regional tensions (Republic of Srpska independence claims) to challenge Western influence. Undermining US influence on EU. Attempting to destabilize Kazakhstan with false claims of FM detention, though TASS later denied this, indicating a complex internal IO landscape. TASS graphic with SCO countries and American eagle.
  • Escalation Threats: Putin's direct statement that "If the conflict in Ukraine does not end peacefully, Russia will resort to weapons" is a clear escalatory threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Basurin o Glavnom explicitly drawing parallels to the Cuban Missile Crisis to imply global conflict.
  • Targeting Civilian Services: Rojin's commentary on the "destruction of Ukrainian energy" and "naval blockade of Odesa" outlines RF's strategic IO intent to cripple Ukrainian infrastructure and economy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Criticism: The МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники video critically assesses "progress in prosthetics," which indicates a rare instance of internal milblogger dissent against the official narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Undermining Ukrainian Allies: Reports that "Coalition of the Resolute" is ready to supply long-range missiles will be framed as escalation, while highlighting internal disagreements within the coalition. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Ukrainian Counter-Propaganda/IO:

  • Rebutting RF Claims: Actively denying RF claims of control in Kupyansk. Documenting RF war crimes (Kherson torture by "Akhmat" unit), particularly the ballistic missile strike on the humanitarian demining mission in Chernihiv.
  • Highlighting RF Losses/Weakness: Reporting estimated RF combat losses. Emphasizing successful UAF air defense interceptions (84/112 drones, all Odesa Shaheds). Highlighting successful deep strikes on RF oil refineries (24.2% refining capacity disabled). Publicizing RF POW captures. Highlighting RF's economic "zeroing out" and "technical stagnation."
  • Promoting Ukrainian Resilience/Strength: Showcasing tactical innovations (ground robotics, EW-resistant FPV drones). Announcing domestic ballistic missile and air defense system development. Emphasizing rapid infrastructure repair (Lozovsky district power, Mykolaiv water). Highlighting strategic adaptations (echeloned counter-Shahed system). Publicizing special forces operations ("rusorez"). Promoting military training (Air Assault Forces adaptation, drone counter-measures, riverine training). Using morale-boosting content (#Воїни_Думки, #Воїни_Слова, gaming console winner for donation, "morning coffee for 'rusorez'"). Highlighting counter-intelligence successes (detention of 5 RF agents). Promoting transparency in mobilization (TCC with bodycams, "Резерв+" app). Showcasing international economic engagement (JERU meeting in Zaporizhzhia). Highlighting continued operations in difficult directions (Synegubov in Kupyansk).
  • Securing International Support: Actively engaging in high-level diplomatic meetings ("Coalition of the Resolute" with Zelenskyy and Macron) to secure long-term security guarantees, military aid, and parliamentary support. Amplifying reports of UK aid from frozen Russian assets ($1.3 billion). Leveraging Trump's statements to encourage allies. Engaging with US Embassy on POW issues. Amplifying reports of US cutting defense aid to Russia-bordering countries to urge continued support.
  • Humanitarian Concerns: Reporting civilian casualties and damage from RF strikes. Documenting abuses in occupied territories. Highlighting internal efforts for child recreation.
  • Internal Governance: Promoting anti-corruption efforts (NAZK guide, SBU General Vityuk case). Resuming direct Verkhovna Rada broadcasts for transparency. Managing desertion policies. Addressing internal security challenges (TCC incident in Volyn).
  • Strategic Messaging: Zelenskyy's statements about Putin using China visit as permission to continue war, and the need for parliamentary-level security guarantees. Daily news summaries provide a coherent narrative. Amplifying reports of Russian offensive preparations to galvanize support.
  • Counter-Disinformation: Directly addressing and countering RF claims of control in Kupyansk. Using news of potential MiG-29 transfers to counter narratives of RF air superiority.
  • Legal Accountability: Prosecutor General's Office investigating RF torture and robbery in Kherson.
  • Human Rights (Internal): Reporting on a four-year prison sentence for "peaceful preaching" could be a point of concern internally or for external review, potentially affecting UAF's own human rights narrative.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

• Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

  1. Sustained Ground Offensive in Donetsk, Kupyansk, and into Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia Oblasts with IO Amplification: RF will consolidate its claimed gains in Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk) and Novoselovka (Zaporizhzhia), conducting probing attacks to exploit any remaining UAF weaknesses and expand the newly established salients, particularly to increase fire pressure on Velikomikhailovka. The main effort will remain focused on achieving full control of Kupyansk and encircling Sieversk, with RF forces pressing hard on all contested axes (e.g., Pokrovskoye-Novoselovka, Pokrovsk). Expect continued tactical advances in LNR (Chervonaya Dibrova, Grigorievka). RF IO will aggressively promote these advances as "liberations" and a "decisive battle for Donbas," while fabricating narratives of UAF surrenders and using footage from its successful drone strikes on UAF assets in Kharkiv to justify further offensives. RF will continue to use anti-thermal cloaks for infiltration attempts, increasing the risk of covert penetration. RF will reinforce ground units with crowdfunding and develop new soldier technologies. Confidence: HIGH
  2. Intensified Multi-Domain Deep Strikes and Air Pressure: RF will continue high-volume drone and missile strikes targeting critical infrastructure (energy, transport, defense industry, fuel depots) across Ukraine, particularly in Sumy (expect further strikes after power outage), Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa. RF will likely launch subsequent waves of Shahed attacks from the Black Sea, attempting to overwhelm UAF air defenses. Ballistic missile launches from both northeast and south will continue, with high-speed targets on cities like Sumy and Kyiv. Expect the regular use of FAB-3000s against fortified UAF positions. RF will prioritize targeting UAF air defense assets, UAV launch points (as seen in Chernihiv re-framing), and communications nodes (Starlink). RF will continue to use EW to degrade UAF drone effectiveness. RF will continue to claim successful interceptions of UAF drones over its territory and potentially engage in further airspace probing along NATO borders, either intentionally or through operational errors, which would be met with immediate RF IO to shift blame. Confidence: HIGH
  3. Aggressive, Multi-Faceted Information Warfare Campaign: RF IO will intensify efforts to undermine Western support for Ukraine by amplifying reports of aid cuts (e.g., US defense aid to border countries), highlighting internal divisions within the "Coalition of the Resolute," and leveraging critical statements from Western leaders (e.g., Trump, Meloni). Domestically, RF IO will focus on internal stability and strength (economic resilience, military production, veteran support, cultural events, "main news" summaries), while stoking nationalist and anti-immigrant sentiments (Yekaterinburg school narrative). RF will relentlessly demonize Ukrainian leadership and forces (e.g., "children for sabotage," "Narcissist," "savages" in Poland), and actively engage in historical revisionism (Cuban Missile Crisis parallels, Durov's quote) to justify its actions and project a victim narrative. RF IO will likely amplify alleged "crimes of AFU" (Bryansk governor) to justify its own indiscriminate attacks. Crowdfunding appeals for drones will continue to highlight the military's needs and maintain public engagement. RF will continue to monitor and subtly address internal dissent. Confidence: HIGH

• Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

  1. Massive Escalation of Cross-Border Aggression and Hybrid Attacks against NATO States: Following a significant battlefield setback or perceived Western escalation, RF conducts a coordinated, large-scale cyberattack against critical infrastructure (energy, telecommunications, financial systems) in a NATO frontline state (e.g., Poland, Baltic states), combined with a massed, conventional deep strike (missiles and drones) targeting military installations and command centers in the same or adjacent NATO states. This kinetic attack would be augmented by intentional and repeated incursions of combat aircraft and armed drones into NATO airspace, testing Article 5 and aiming to provoke a kinetic response while creating confusion and sowing doubt about NATO's resolve and unity. Simultaneously, RF special forces conduct overt and covert sabotage operations against critical infrastructure or military targets within NATO countries. This would be accompanied by an aggressive global IO campaign blaming NATO for escalating the conflict, potentially using fabricated evidence of NATO preparations for invasion or direct military involvement in Ukraine. The intent would be to fracture NATO, deter further support for Ukraine, or compel NATO to negotiate on RF terms. The Cuban Missile Crisis IO serves as a stark warning of this potential. Confidence: MEDIUM
  2. Targeted Chemical/Biological Attack and Cyber-Enabled Destruction of Ukraine's Emerging DIB: RF launches a limited, targeted chemical or biological agent attack (e.g., a non-lethal but highly disruptive agent against a population center or a military supply hub, possibly disguised as an industrial accident or false flag) to sow panic and disorder. This is precisely coordinated with a sophisticated, multi-vector cyberattack to disrupt Ukraine's nascent defense industrial base (DIB), particularly the announced FP-7/FP-9 ballistic missile and air defense development facilities and their supply chains. The cyberattack would aim to erase design data, cripple production capabilities, and disrupt distribution networks. This would be immediately followed by precision conventional strikes on remaining DIB infrastructure, exploiting the chaos caused by the hybrid attack. RF IO would amplify narratives of Ukrainian "drug labs" or "unsafe facilities" to justify the attack, while promoting disinformation to external audiences to deflect blame and undermine international support. Confidence: LOW

• Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

  • Immediate (0-24 hours): RF will likely launch a follow-on wave of drones and/or missiles within the next 24 hours, focusing on critical infrastructure, particularly in Sumy and Kharkiv, and potentially new targets in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF will prioritize rapid deployment of reserves to the Novoselivka-Velikomikhailovka axis. NATO/Poland will be at a heightened state of alert due to the airspace violation, a critical window for de-escalation or further escalation.
  • Short-Term (24-72 hours): RF will attempt to consolidate gains in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia Oblasts and intensify ground assaults in Kupyansk/Sieversk. UAF will likely launch significant counter-battery and deep strikes against RF assets supporting these new offensives. The impact of the US defense aid cuts (if confirmed as reported by TASS/RBC-Ukraine) could begin to influence Western decision-making on future support packages.
  • Mid-Term (1-2 weeks): RF's "largest regrouping since 2022" suggests preparation for a sustained, large-scale offensive in the Donbas and potentially further westward. The operational success (or failure) of the Novoselivka push will significantly inform RF's next phase. UAF's ability to hold and counter in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia will be critical. The "Coalition of the Resolute" will finalize security guarantees, a key decision point for long-term UAF capabilities.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize ISR and Counter-Offensive Planning for Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia Axis: Immediately re-task all available ISR assets to precisely map RF force disposition, composition, and intent along the new Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia axis (Novoselivka-Velikomikhailovka). Develop and execute rapid counter-offensive plans to stabilize the front, interdict RF reinforcements, and deny consolidation of gains.
   • Action: Surge ISR (UAV, IMINT, SIGINT) to map RF unit locations, strength, and logistics in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
   • Action: Develop and pre-position dynamic targeting packages for high-value RF targets (C2, logistics, heavy armor) to be delivered by long-range precision fires immediately upon target confirmation.
   • Action: Prepare and rapidly deploy mobile reserves to reinforce threatened sectors along the new axis, prioritizing anti-armor and counter-infiltration capabilities.
   • Action: Integrate EW-resistant FPV drones, produced domestically or supplied by allies, into defensive and offensive operations along this axis to counter RF advances.
2. Intensify Counter-UAS and Air Defense Modernization: Accelerate the implementation of Syrsky's echeloned counter-Shahed system. Prioritize the procurement and deployment of modern air defense systems from Western partners (e.g., Nordic/Baltic countries) to protect critical infrastructure and population centers, particularly in high-threat areas like Sumy, Kharkiv, and the newly threatened Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
   • Action: Push for expedited delivery of promised air defense assets.
   • Action: Allocate immediate resources for the research, development, and mass production of indigenous counter-UAS technologies, including kinetic and non-kinetic systems.
   • Action: Enhance passive air defense measures around critical infrastructure (camouflage, hardening, redundancy).
3. Elevate Threat Warning and Protection for Humanitarian/NGO Personnel: Reissue and enforce a high-priority threat warning to all humanitarian organizations and NGOs operating in Ukraine, emphasizing the confirmed RF intent to target such missions (e.g., Chernihiv).
   • Action: Facilitate rapid review and enhancement of OPSEC, movement protocols, and protective measures for all humanitarian operations.
   • Action: Engage international partners to publicly condemn RF targeting of humanitarian missions and demand adherence to international humanitarian law.
4. Strategic Diplomatic Engagement to Counter RF IO on Western Support: Actively monitor and counter RF IO narratives regarding Western disunity and aid reductions (e.g., US defense aid cuts). Proactively communicate the reality of