Archived operational intelligence briefing
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: RF deep strikes continue to target Ukraine's defense industry and railway infrastructure, with a new claimed strategic strike against a UAV/Artillery electronics enterprise in Khmelnytskyi. Civilian targeting remains high, with confirmed deadly artillery/FPV drone strikes on Kostiantynivka (including a hospital and nearby village, resulting in 2 fatalities in Illinivka), sustained attacks on the Nikopol region (Nikopol, Marhanetska, Myrivska, Pokrovska, Chervonohryhorivska communities), and Kharkiv Oblast, and new casualties in Zaporizhzhia (total 4 wounded), Orikhiv (2 wounded), and Druzhkivka (7 wounded), as well as two killed and two wounded in Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast. Ballistic missile threats are active, with new alerts for Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, and Sumy, including high-speed targets on Kyiv. A ballistic missile strike in Chernihiv Oblast specifically targeted employees of a humanitarian demining mission, resulting in one fatality and two wounded, which RF now claims was a UAF UAV launch point destroyed by an Iskander. Ground operations are intensely focused on Sieversk and Kupyansk. RF continues to claim significant gains and even UAF surrenders in Kupyansk, while UAF actively denies these claims and demonstrates successful counter-actions; DeepState confirms RF presence and infiltration attempts, though UAF maintains RF lacks "firm control" over the city center. RF milblogger claims report children being used for sabotage by Ukraine, a significant and dangerous escalation of IO targeting. RF claims "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (with video evidence from "Vostok" Group of Forces and Colonelcassad) and Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (MoD RF claim via TASS and Voenkor Kotenok). Colonelcassad claims "Vostok" Group of Forces has "completely liberated" DNR territory and is now advancing into Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. TASS reports Saldo's claim of RF maintaining control over Dnipro delta islands in Kherson Oblast. RF also claims new assaults on Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), supported by UAV footage. RF also claims to have neutralized a Bradley IFV and a field ammunition depot with a Fagot ATGM, and to have detained an SBU agent in Kherson Oblast engaged in espionage. UAF reports the destruction of an S-300V SAM system in the Zaporizhzhia direction. UAF demonstrates tactical innovation with ground robotic complexes and EW-resistant FPV drones, secures additional air defense from Nordic/Baltic countries, and maintains significant domestic artillery/drone production. Ukrainian company Fire Point announces development of ballistic missiles (FP-7, FP-9) and air defense systems. Diplomatic and information warfare efforts continue, with UAF securing further Western support and RF attempting to sow discord and amplify anti-Western narratives. Putin concluded his China visit, making several statements regarding Ukraine, NATO, and economic cooperation with China, projecting a dual message of "peace" vs. "military solution." RF is actively conducting artillery strikes in the Kharkiv direction, with confirmed casualties. NATO ISR aircraft activity is reported near Kaliningrad/Belarus border, indicating heightened regional vigilance. European leaders, including Zelenskyy and Macron, are scheduled for a call with Trump, highlighting continued high-level diplomatic engagement. RF IO is heavily pushing narratives of Ukrainian corruption. New RF drone group activity in Chernihiv region, southwestern direction. UAF has successfully downed a "Gerbera with a rear-view camera" drone. UAF successfully destroyed RF D-20 artillery and a 2S3 self-propelled howitzer with drone strikes. New Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast. UAF special forces (Shybenyk Squad, 2nd Assault Company, Kraken) are conducting operations in Sumy Oblast. RF continues to use BM-21 Grad MLRS. Ukraine launches its largest port investment project, indicating economic resilience and long-term planning. Ukrainian forces report Russians are using anti-thermal imaging cloaks for infiltration tactics. RF IO emphasizes Putin's conditional willingness to meet Zelenskyy in Moscow, contrasting with Zelenskyy's statements on Ukraine's "Korean Scenario" and the need for US security guarantees. RF IO also focuses on internal control in Belgorod concerning UAV attack information. UAF claims significant destruction of RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reports a power outage in Krasnodar Krai due to a UAV strike. RF IO is leveraging discussion of a "frozen conflict" for Ukraine. RF IO is pushing a narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. RF drones originating from Donetsk Oblast are now reported on course for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF sources continue to claim significant advances in Kupyansk, with UAF sources also confirming RF infiltration and presence, albeit noting a lack of "firm control" over the city center, and indicating fragmented UAF defense. RF UAV group detected in Southern Sumy Oblast, moving west. RF UAVs on course for Poltava Oblast. Several groups of RF UAVs detected in northern Kharkiv Oblast (Chuhuiv Raion). RF military transport aircraft confirmed arriving in North Korea, with coffins draped in North Korean flags visible, suggesting potential military assistance or return of personnel. Explosion heard in Chuhuiv community, Kharkiv Oblast. RF reports five Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Rostov Oblast. New groups of RF UAVs are inbound from the Black Sea towards Odesa/Fontanka. The air raid alert for Odesa and Chornomorsk has been lifted following successful UAF interception of all incoming Shahed UAVs. The Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) continues in Vladivostok. RF is actively promoting a rise in military pensions and a continued increase in the 2026 budget, signaling long-term commitment to military personnel welfare. RF is also discussing financing for new energy generation in the Far East. RF IO is now actively countering claims of Western support for Ukraine, with Maria Zakharova stating that Ukraine's security guarantees are "guarantees of danger" for Europe. Colonelcassad reports a FAB-3000 strike on a UAF Forward Operating Base (FOB). Russian milbloggers "Two Majors" and "Parisan56rus" are providing footage from the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction. Russian milblogger "Operation Z" (via Russkaya Vesna) released a video on "Electronic Warfare (EW) strike" on the Zaporizhzhia front. UAF General Staff provides updated estimated RF combat losses. UAF reports two UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF sources claim UAF forces are mining houses on Karantynny Island (Kherson). RF Ministry of Defense claims 46 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions and the Black Sea. UK has directed over $1 billion from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. Aftermath of drone attack on Odesa: fire in a warehouse, no casualties. Trump states that Putin and Zelenskyy are not yet ready for a peace agreement. RF Ministry of Defense reports an additional four UAVs shot down over Volgograd Oblast. Colonelcassad posts drone footage of high-precision strikes on UAF trench positions by operators of the 5th Army Group "Vostok." Rybar provides a map-based analysis video of RF offensive operations in the Shcherbinovka area (between August 12-31, 2025). TASS reports RF military advances near Chervonaya Dibrova (LNR) and control of 5 hectares of forest near Grigorievka (DNR). Zvиздец Мангусту provides a brief summary from various directions and considerations regarding events on the Dobropillya direction, specifically mentioning the Sieversk (Slavyansk) direction and potential regrouping for the Pokrovsk assault. ASTRA reports China has not confirmed Putin's statements about "Power of Siberia-2." Operatsiya Z (Russkaya Vesna) reports RF air defense shot down 46 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. Два майора posts a video (18+) with "18th Combined Arms Army" insignia, showing an aerial strike on a small boat with personnel in water. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of enemy UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving southwest. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video claiming that drones attacked 17 Russian oil refineries in August. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posts a photo message stating "84 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed." ASTRA reports that Ukraine's Air Force states Russia attacked with 112 UAVs overnight, and UAF neutralized 84 of them. Шеф Hayabusa posts photos of damage in Sloviansk and Odesa after night attacks. RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia is preparing a new offensive against Ukraine, citing Bloomberg. UAF General Staff reports repelling 5 RF army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction.
NEW DEVELOPMENTS (041530Z - 041600Z SEP 25):
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
Intentions:
Courses of Action (COAs):
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
RF Propaganda:
Ukrainian Counter-Propaganda/IO:
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
Sustained Ground Offensive in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts with Continued Focus on Kupyansk: RF will maintain intense offensive pressure on the Sieversk axis, aiming for operational encirclement. The main effort will be to seize full control of Kupyansk, escalating urban combat and interdicting UAF reinforcements, capitalizing on confirmed presence and fragmented UAF defenses. RF will continue reconnaissance-in-force towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, aiming to solidify and exploit claimed gains around Novoselivka in both Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts (particularly near Stepnohirsk, as indicated by milblogger maps/videos), explicitly to strengthen fire pressure on Velikomikhailovka. STERNENKO confirms increased RF use of heavy equipment and small infantry groups for assaults on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Localized ground advances will continue (e.g., Chervonaya Dibrova, Grigorievka, 5-hectare forest in LNR), and "active battles" will continue in the Pokrovsko-Dobropolsk direction. Offensive preparations will continue in the Kherson direction, including consolidation of Dnipro delta islands, and RF will seek to interdict UAF counter-logistics, like the Selydove ammo depot strike. RF will maintain drone-guided strikes on fortified positions and personnel, employing adaptive tactics like anti-thermal imaging cloaks. RF will increase FPV and kamikaze drone strikes against UAF light vehicles and personnel. RF will continue counter-DRG operations in border regions (Kaluga Oblast), exploiting these for IO. RF's Vostok Group of Forces will continue to rely on COTS drones (e.g., Mavic 3) for reconnaissance and combat support, indicating a persistent adaptation to modern drone warfare, while potentially supplementing its own drone production capabilities. RF will continue to enforce the replacement of vehicle registration documents in "Novorossiya" to solidify its control over occupied territories. RF will continue to develop and deploy specialized engineering equipment, such as the "Courier" laser demining system, to clear obstacles and facilitate ground advances. Confidence: HIGH
Adaptive Air/Missile Campaign Targeting Critical Infrastructure and Military Assets: RF will continue high-volume drone and missile strikes, with a heightened focus on Ukraine's defense industry, fuel, and railway infrastructure. Opportunistic strikes on population centers will continue, resulting in civilian casualties and damage, including renewed focus on Odesa/Fontanka (despite previous interceptions), and the indiscriminate use of aerial bombs against civilian infrastructure (Kostiantynivka hospital, Illinivka). Ballistic missile launches from the northeast and south (Tuzly/Mykolaivka), high-speed targets on Sumy, and КАБ launches on Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts will persist. FAB-3000 use will likely become more regular against suspected UAF strongpoints. RF will specifically target UAF armored vehicles and Starlink satellite communication terminals with drones. RF will increase drone and missile strikes in northern regions (Chernihiv, Sumy), including against humanitarian missions (which RF will reframe as military targets), and conduct deep strikes into RF territory. Expect enhanced RF air defense measures in border regions (e.g., against cross-border drone incursions into Poland) and continued EW against UAF drones. RF will continue to use long-range artillery against UAF assets. RF Air Force threats in Chernihiv, Kyiv, and Poltava Oblast, and aviation weapon use in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia, indicate continued aerial surveillance and strike activity in these regions. RF will maintain its ISR-strike chain, as demonstrated by Lancet strikes on UAF artillery in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF will continue to degrade UAF energy infrastructure, as shown by the strike on the Lozovaya substation in Kupyansk. Confidence: HIGH
Intensified Global Information Warfare and Diplomatic Leverage: RF IO will heavily amplify claims of ground victories and frame Western support as escalatory and a sign of weakness/disunity (e.g., "Coalition of the Resolute" divisions, Witkoff's early departure, Trump's statements on oil/China, Kallas's comments on RF/China narrative). Narratives will focus on discrediting Ukrainian leadership (e.g., "children for sabotage," "Ukrainian drug labs," German election conspiracy theories, Zelenskyy as "military dictator," UAF fighting Colombian mercenaries), justifying RF actions with threats (Putin's "resort to weapons" statement), and projecting RF's economic and military resilience. Diplomatic outreach to non-Western nations (China, DPRK, Russian-Arab summit, humanitarian dialogue with Ukraine via Moskalkova) will continue to solidify an anti-Western bloc. RF will maintain tight internal information control in border regions and use social media to influence public opinion, including new VK channels. IO will also highlight internal Ukrainian challenges (TCC incident, "peaceful preaching" sentencing) and Western instability (e.g., German election conspiracy theories). RF will enforce administrative measures in occupied territories (vehicle registration). RF IO will leverage cultural news and celebrity events (Armani death, Hemingway, Efremov, "Beer Nemarathon") to project normalcy and divert attention from the conflict. RF IO will likely intensify negative portrayals of migrant groups within Russia, as seen with Rybar's "Uzbek ethnic crime" video. RF will continue to highlight domestic humanitarian appeals to humanize its military. RF will attempt to monitor and respond to internal dissent (Strelkov's posts) to maintain its overall narrative. RF will attempt to co-opt Ukrainian military imagery for its own IO. Confidence: HIGH
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
Expanded Conventional Offensive with Massed Air-to-Ground Strikes and Strategic Amphibious Landings: RF launches a massive, multi-pronged ground offensive across multiple axes, including a full-scale assault into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, aiming to capture major industrial centers and establish a deep salient. This would be preceded by massed tactical aviation strikes using heavy glide bombs (FAB-3000 at scale) and a saturation of ballistic missiles (including DPRK-supplied) and advanced drones, designed to overwhelm UAF air defenses and degrade C2 across the entire front. Concurrently, RF conducts large-scale amphibious landings in the Kherson direction, aiming to secure multiple river crossings and isolate UAF forces on the right bank, potentially coupled with a deep airborne assault to seize critical infrastructure behind the lines. This would be supported by widespread EW to cripple UAF communications and ISR, and could involve a significant disregard for international borders, as evidenced by recent drone incursions into Polish airspace. The objective would be to force a rapid collapse of UAF defenses and create a new, militarily advantageous "frozen conflict" line, causing mass casualties and a severe humanitarian crisis. The recent strike on Kostiantynivka hospital and deaths in Illinivka, alongside the Chernihiv demining strike (and RF's subsequent re-framing as a legitimate military target), demonstrate a willingness to inflict widespread civilian casualties during such an offensive. The confirmed regrouping of RF forces since 2022 further supports the potential for a large-scale, decisive operation. RF's demonstration of advanced demining capabilities (Courier system) suggests preparation for clearing obstacles in a major ground advance. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
Escalation to Chemical/Biological Attack with Cyber-Kinetic Fusion against Critical Infrastructure and DIB: RF initiates a targeted chemical or biological agent attack on a Ukrainian urban center or military installation (potentially disguised as a false flag), synchronized with a devastating cyberattack designed to cripple Ukraine's energy grid, financial system, and military C2. This would be immediately followed by precision conventional strikes targeting Ukraine's emerging ballistic missile (FP-7, FP-9) and air defense R&D and production facilities, using real-time intelligence from enhanced ISR. A global information warfare campaign using deepfakes and coordinated disinformation would frame Ukraine or NATO as the aggressor, aiming to fracture international support and justify RF's actions. This hybrid attack would be intended to break Ukraine's will to fight, prevent its long-term defense build-up, and create irreversible damage to its statehood, potentially leveraging narratives of "children for sabotage" and "Ukrainian drug labs" to justify extreme measures. Confidence: LOW
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
//END REPORT//
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