Nightwatch logo
'Nightwatch' text with white and gray letters
Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-09-04 09:06:26Z
5 months ago
Previous (2025-09-04 08:36:20Z)

SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - 040900Z SEP 25 (UPDATE 58)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

  • OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: RF deep strikes continue to target Ukraine's defense industry and railway infrastructure. Civilian targeting remains high, with confirmed deadly artillery/FPV drone strikes on Kostiantynivka, sustained attacks on the Nikopol region and Kharkiv Oblast, and NEW reports of increased casualties in Zaporizhzhia (total 4 wounded) and Orikhiv (2 wounded). Ballistic missile threats are active. Ground operations are intensely focused on Sieversk and Kupyansk. RF continues to claim significant gains and even UAF surrenders in Kupyansk, while UAF actively denies these claims and demonstrates successful counter-actions; DeepState confirms RF presence and infiltration attempts, though UAF maintains RF lacks "firm control" over the city center. NEW RF claims of "liberating" Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (with video evidence from "Vostok" Group of Forces) and Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (MoD RF claim via TASS) represent a significant, unconfirmed westward push and potential territorial gains. RF also claims new assaults on Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), supported by UAV footage of targeted positions and personnel. RF also claims to have neutralized a Bradley IFV and a field ammunition depot with a Fagot ATGM, and to have detained an SBU agent in Kherson Oblast engaged in espionage. UAF reports the destruction of an S-300V SAM system in the Zaporizhzhia direction. UAF demonstrates tactical innovation with ground robotic complexes, secures additional air defense from Nordic/Baltic countries, and maintains significant domestic artillery/drone production. Diplomatic and information warfare efforts continue, with UAF securing further Western support and RF attempting to sow discord and amplify anti-Western narratives. Putin concluded his China visit, making several statements regarding Ukraine, NATO, and economic cooperation with China, projecting a dual message of "peace" vs. "military solution." RF is actively conducting artillery strikes in the Kharkiv direction, with confirmed casualties. NATO ISR aircraft activity is reported near Kaliningrad/Belarus border, indicating heightened regional vigilance. European leaders, including Zelenskyy and Macron, are scheduled for a call with Trump, highlighting continued high-level diplomatic engagement. RF IO is heavily pushing narratives of Ukrainian corruption. New RF drone group activity in Chernihiv region, southwestern direction. UAF has successfully downed a "Gerbera with a rear-view camera" drone. UAF successfully destroyed RF D-20 artillery and a 2S3 self-propelled howitzer with drone strikes. New Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast. UAF special forces (Shybenyk Squad, 2nd Assault Company, Kraken) are conducting operations in Sumy Oblast. RF continues to use BM-21 Grad MLRS. Ukraine launches its largest port investment project, indicating economic resilience and long-term planning. Ukrainian forces report Russians are using anti-thermal imaging cloaks for infiltration tactics. RF IO emphasizes Putin's conditional willingness to meet Zelenskyy in Moscow, contrasting with Zelenskyy's statements on Ukraine's "Korean Scenario" and the need for US security guarantees. RF IO also focuses on internal control in Belgorod concerning UAV attack information. UAF claims significant destruction of RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reports a power outage in Krasnodar Krai due to a UAV strike. RF IO is leveraging discussion of a "frozen conflict" for Ukraine. RF IO is pushing a narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. RF drones originating from Donetsk Oblast are now reported on course for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF sources continue to claim significant advances in Kupyansk, with UAF sources also confirming RF infiltration and presence, albeit noting a lack of "firm control" over the city center, and indicating fragmented UAF defense. RF UAV group detected in Southern Sumy Oblast, moving west. RF UAVs on course for Poltava Oblast. Several groups of RF UAVs detected in northern Kharkiv Oblast (Chuhuiv Raion). RF military transport aircraft confirmed arriving in North Korea, with coffins draped in North Korean flags visible, suggesting potential military assistance or return of personnel. Explosion heard in Chuhuiv community, Kharkiv Oblast. RF reports five Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Rostov Oblast. New groups of RF UAVs are inbound from the Black Sea towards Odesa/Fontanka. The air raid alert for Odesa and Chornomorsk has been lifted following successful UAF interception of all incoming Shahed UAVs. The Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) continues in Vladivostok. RF is actively promoting a rise in military pensions and a continued increase in the 2026 budget, signaling long-term commitment to military personnel welfare. RF is also discussing financing for new energy generation in the Far East. RF IO is now actively countering claims of Western support for Ukraine, with Maria Zakharova stating that Ukraine's security guarantees are "guarantees of danger" for Europe. Colonelcassad reports a FAB-3000 strike on a UAF Forward Operating Base (FOB). Russian milbloggers "Two Majors" and "Parisan56rus" are providing footage from the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction. Russian milblogger "Operation Z" (via Russkaya Vesna) released a video on "Electronic Warfare (EW) strike" on the Zaporizhzhia front. UAF General Staff provides updated estimated RF combat losses. UAF reports two UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF sources claim UAF forces are mining houses on Karantynny Island (Kherson). RF Ministry of Defense claims 46 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions and the Black Sea. UK has directed over $1 billion from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. Aftermath of drone attack on Odesa: fire in a warehouse, no casualties. Trump states that Putin and Zelenskyy are not yet ready for a peace agreement. RF Ministry of Defense reports an additional four UAVs shot down over Volgograd Oblast. Colonelcassad posts drone footage of high-precision strikes on UAF trench positions by operators of the 5th Army Group "Vostok." Rybar provides a map-based analysis video of RF offensive operations in the Shcherbinovka area (between August 12-31, 2025). TASS reports RF military advances near Chervonaya Dibrova (LNR) and control of 5 hectares of forest near Grigorievka (DNR). Zvиздец Мангусту provides a brief summary from various directions and considerations regarding events on the Dobropillya direction, specifically mentioning the Sieversk (Slavyansk) direction and potential regrouping for the Pokrovsk assault. ASTRA reports China has not confirmed Putin's statements about "Power of Siberia-2." Operatsiya Z (Russkaya Vesna) reports RF air defense shot down 46 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. Два майора posts a video (18+) with "18th Combined Arms Army" insignia, showing an aerial strike on a small boat with personnel in water. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of enemy UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving southwest. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video claiming that drones attacked 17 Russian oil refineries in August. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posts a photo message stating "84 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed." ASTRA reports that Ukraine's Air Force states Russia attacked with 112 UAVs overnight, and UAF neutralized 84 of them. Шеф Hayabusa posts photos of damage in Sloviansk and Odesa after night attacks. RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia is preparing a new offensive against Ukraine, citing Bloomberg. UAF General Staff reports repelling 5 RF army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction.

  • NEW: Два майора reports that the "Vostok" Group of Forces has "liberated" Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, claiming it is the sixth settlement in the region. This is supported by NEW video footage showing aerial bombardments, explosions, damaged structures, military vehicles, and Russian flags, including references to the "36 omSBr 29 A" unit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF milblogger claim with video evidence)

  • NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 and РБК-Україна report that the number of wounded in Zaporizhzhia city has increased to four following an enemy attack. One 53-year-old woman was also reported wounded in Zaporizhzhia Raion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

  • NEW: ТАСС reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have "liberated" Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF MoD claim)

  • NEW: Colonelcassad posts a video claiming Russian helicopter crews struck a UAV command post on the Kupyansk tactical direction. The video shows a drone flying over a damaged urban area, an explosion near a three-story building, and on-screen warnings about strong winds affecting the drone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF milblogger claim with video evidence)

  • NEW: Сливочный каприз posts NEW photo and video messages from the Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka direction (dated 04.09.25), showing aerial reconnaissance, artillery strikes, damaged buildings, and both Ukrainian and Russian flags, indicating contested territory. The video includes engagements with drones and artillery, as well as thermal imaging. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF milblogger with video evidence)

  • NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts an analysis of NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's statement that Article 5 will not be extended to Indo-Pacific partners, framing it as a "hint" to Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, and Taiwan. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO/milblogger commentary)

  • NEW: Военкор Котенок reports that "several NATO aircraft" are operating near Russia's northwestern borders, including a Spanish Air Force unit. The report includes screenshots from flight tracking websites. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF milblogger report with OSINT)

  • NEW: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides an informational message regarding the situation in the areas of responsibility of subordinate military units as of 04.09.2025. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

  • Black Sea Oil Spill: Remains valid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Formaldehyde Levels (Kalush): Fire in Kalush from night attack now extinguished, suggests environmental hazard mitigated for now, but underlying risk remains. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
  • Russian Temperature Forecast: Above-normal temperatures are expected across most of Russia this and next week. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Mine Collapse (Yakutia): One fatality from the Yakutia mine collapse. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Night Attack Aftermath (Odesa/Sloviansk/Kharkiv): Aftermath footage shows damaged buildings (warehouse, truck) in Odesa and photos of damage in Sloviansk and Kharkiv, likely from fire or explosion, confirming localized air quality degradation and structural damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kryvyi Rih Status: Situation reported as "controlled," suggesting no immediate environmental threat from military action. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Шеф Hayabusa's video from Krasny Sulin, Rostov Oblast, is night vision footage, indicating operations during low visibility conditions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video shows explosions and smoke in Odesa, indicating localized air quality degradation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video shows significant explosion, smoke and debris, indicating localized air quality degradation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF is using incendiary mixtures to set fires in LNR, indicating potential for localized environmental impact and smoke plumes affecting visibility. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Воин DV's video shows a plume of smoke from an explosion/impact in a forested area west of Novoselivka, indicating localized environmental impact and potential for smoke affecting visibility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: STERNENKO's video shows explosions and smoke from burning structures (Mavic drone operator's shelter) in the Pokrovsk direction, confirming localized environmental degradation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Два майора's video of a ZALA Lancet strike in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast shows a significant explosion and smoke plume, indicating localized air quality degradation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad's video from Bryansk border region shows aerial strikes with explosions and smoke plumes, indicating localized environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Воин DV's video claiming "liberation" of Novoselivka shows multiple explosions and damage, confirming localized environmental degradation and structural damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: The video from Два майора claiming "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast shows widespread damage, explosions, and smoke, indicating a high-intensity combat zone with significant environmental impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Photos and videos from 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 and ASTRA show significant damage to civilian buildings, including a sushi bar, with broken windows and debris, indicating localized structural damage and air quality degradation from explosions in Zaporizhzhia city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad's video of a helicopter strike on a UAV command post in Kupyansk shows an explosion and smoke plume, indicating localized air quality degradation and structural damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: The video from Сливочный каприз from the Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka direction shows artillery strikes, damaged buildings, and smoke plumes, indicating ongoing, high-intensity combat with localized environmental impact and structural damage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

  • RF:
    • Air/Missile Assets: Actively employing long-range precision air-launched weapons (КАБ on Donetsk and Sumy, new КАБ launches towards Zaporizhzhia, and now Kharkiv Oblast), attack UAVs (Lancet on UAF radar, FPV drones on checkpoint, FPV drone strike on vehicle near Sumy border), tactical aviation (southeast and northeast directions), and conducting drone strikes (Kharkiv direction, Nikopol region, Kharkiv city). Reports strikes on UAF UAV/artillery electronics in Khmelnytskyi. Claims of strikes on "Motor" aircraft repair plant in Lutsk and "Donmashstroy" in Kramatorsk. Artillery (Msta-S, BM-21 Grad MLRS) actively employed in Kharkiv direction. Claims of strike on UAF UAV operator location in Kupyansk-Uzlovoy. RF animated strike scheme details alleged widespread drone strikes across multiple regions. Claims of Kalibr/Geran strikes on "Spetsoboronmash" plant near Kyiv Oblast border. UAV group in Chernihiv region moving southwest. Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast (including Pokrovsky district, Belozerske/Dobropillya). UAV group from Kharkiv to Donetsk Oblast. UAV group from Donetsk to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAV group in Southern Sumy Oblast, moving west. RF UAVs on course for Poltava Oblast. Several groups of RF UAVs detected in northern Kharkiv Oblast (Chuhuiv Raion). Reports a power outage in Krasnodar Krai due to a UAV strike. Groups of RF UAVs inbound from the Black Sea towards Odesa/Fontanka (approx. 14 Shaheds) were successfully intercepted. RF claims five Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Rostov Oblast. "Rubikon" air defense combat groups operating various drones (Leleka-100, RQ-35 Heidrun, Vector, VT-260) over Ukrainian fields. New claim of a successful ЛМУР strike on a UAF UAV launch point for the 22nd Motorized Brigade. A new RF UAV group is currently active in northern Sumy Oblast, heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. Ballistic missile threat from the northeast. High-speed target detected on Sumy. UAF Air Force reports КАБ launches towards Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Colonelcassad reports a FAB-3000 strike on a UAF PVD (Forward Operating Base). "Operation Z" video highlights RF Electronic Warfare (EW) capabilities against UAF drones, likely to protect ground forces, specifically on the Zaporizhzhia front. RF Ministry of Defense claims 46 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions and the Black Sea.
    • NEW: Rybar's "Eyes on Orbit" videos show at least two distinct multi-stage rocket/missile launches at night from coastal/urban areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: The additional four UAVs shot down over Volgograd Oblast demonstrate RF's active air defense capability against perceived UAF cross-border threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) claims RF air defense shot down 46 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim)
    • NEW: Два майора posts a video showing an aerial strike on a small boat with personnel, likely on the Dnipro River, attributed to the "18th Combined Arms Army." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a new group of enemy UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving southwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Воин DV (RF milblogger) posts a video of drone bombardment by the 38th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, 35th Army, "Vostok" Group, targeting enemy personnel concentrations in the Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ASTRA reports that Ukraine's Air Force states Russia attacked with 112 UAVs overnight, meaning that 28 UAVs were not neutralized by UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) reports Russian aviation inflicted a powerful strike on critical enemy infrastructure, with multiple videos showing nighttime explosions and fires in Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Colonelcassad posts a video of a BM-21 "Grad" MLRS crew. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for Chernihiv Oblast regarding enemy strike UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorod district) regarding enemy strike UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Военкор Котенок claims 50 Ukrainian aircraft-type drones were shot down overnight by air defense. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF milblogger claim)
    • NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a photo message asking "Is Ukraine creating a ground-based cruise missile?", reflecting RF intelligence/IO concern. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: MoD Russia releases video claiming a Fagot ATGM of the Zapad Group of Forces neutralized a Bradley IFV, a field ammunition depot, and AFU manpower. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Mash на Донбассе posts a video claiming the Russian army began assaulting Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, showing UAV footage of strikes on a damaged building and surrounding area with military personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV in the Black Sea waters near Odesa Oblast, with means engaged for shooting it down. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: MoD Russia posts a video claiming a crew of 2S44 Giatsint-K self-propelled artillery systems of the 8th Combined Arms Army (Tsentr Group of Forces) obliterated a concealed UAV command post and strongholds of the AFU in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, supported by aerial footage of a damaged settlement and explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Два майора posts a video claiming a ZALA "Lancet" drone identified camouflaged UAF artillery in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, followed by an aerial strike. This confirms RF's continued use of precision loitering munitions for target acquisition and engagement against UAF artillery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Colonelcassad posts a video on Bryansk border region, showing drone reconnaissance of a communication tower (identifying communication system, transformer), a mortar position, and vehicles, followed by aerial strikes. This demonstrates RF's multi-layered ISR and strike capability near the border, targeting UAF-aligned assets or infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Colonelcassad posts a video claiming Russian helicopter crews struck a UAV command post on the Kupyansk tactical direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Ground Forces: Strong offensive focus on Sieversk. Asserting control of "about half" of Kupyansk, directly contradicted by UAF but also met with UAF counter-action against flag-planting assault groups. DeepState is now confirming RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk, though UAF still denies firm control of the city center, only small group infiltration. Reports of RF successfully destroying UAF motorized units near Pokrovsk with casualties. Claims liberation of Kamyshevakha and full control of Yanvarske. Persistent attempts at infiltration (Pokrovsk axis). Engages fortified positions. Putin claims all RF groupings are successfully advancing. Conducted deadly artillery/FPV drone strikes on Kostiantynivka. RF forces are employing anti-thermal imaging cloaks to facilitate covert infiltration. RF utilizes drones for surveillance and targeting. RF engineering vehicle (likely AVLB) destroyed by UAF forces, though RF attempts to misattribute it to UAF losses for IO. RF 506th Regiment "Otvazhnye" reportedly engaged in combat around Pokrovsk. RF "Russkaya Vesna" is showcasing large-scale social object creation in Luhansk People's Republic (LNR). FAB-3000 strike on a UAF PVD (Forward Operating Base). "Two Majors" video ("No obstacles for the Guard!") shows aerial combat footage. "Two Majors" and "Partizan56rus" are posting from the Pokrovsk direction. Vladimir Saldo claims UAF are mining houses on Karantynny Island (Kherson).
    • NEW: "Operation Z" video of an FPV drone strike on a vehicle in the border area, claiming to support an advance on Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Colonelcassad drone footage of high-precision strikes by 5th Army Group "Vostok" operators on UAF trench positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Rybar's map-based analysis of the Shcherbinovka area (August 12-31, 2025) details RF advances and encirclements of UAF positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: TASS reports RF military advances near Chervonaya Dibrova (LNR) and control of 5 hectares of forest near Grigorievka (DNR), citing military expert Marochko. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF source)
    • NEW: WarGonzo's "Frontline summary for the morning of 04.09.25" with multiple photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Zvиздец Мангусту's summary indicates continued focus on the Sieversk (Slavyansk) direction and provides insight into RF's planning for the Pokrovsk assault. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - milblogger source)
    • NEW: Colonelcassad posts a video claiming "First Tank Army" destroyed an enemy pickup and combatant. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that RF forces have carried out their largest regrouping since the 2022 Kyiv battles, amassing a large number of forces for a "final, decisive battle" for the rest of Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia is preparing a new offensive against Ukraine, citing Bloomberg. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: UAF General Staff reports repelling 5 RF army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message about the "Konstantinovsky direction." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Воин DV posts a video showing "harsh hits on enemy manpower trying to escape, but unsuccessfully," depicting drone footage of strikes on fortified positions and personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Kotsnews posts a video showcasing the "Ant" exoskeleton vest designed to reduce fatigue and enhance mobility for soldiers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Два майора posts a video urging "Let's activate! Over the past day, 669 people participated in the collection for assault troops of the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Два майора posts video of UAV operator training from the Konstantinovsky direction, specifically naming the 33rd Motorized Rifle Berlin-Don Cossack Regiment, 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: MoD Russia releases video claiming a Fagot ATGM of the Zapad Group of Forces neutralized a Bradley IFV, a field ammunition depot, and AFU manpower. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Mash на Донбассе posts a video claiming the Russian army began assaulting Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF is again using incendiary mixtures to set fires in LNR. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Colonelcassad posts a video showing the alleged capture of a Ukrainian DRG in Bryansk Oblast, whose task was railway sabotage. This indicates RF counter-sabotage operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Воин DV posts a video claiming scouts from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade located a camouflaged enemy vehicle in the forests west of Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). This confirms RF reconnaissance efforts in the area of claimed assault. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Воин DV (RF milblogger, Vostok Group of Forces) claims the "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, supported by video showing artillery strikes, damage, RF flags, and soldiers. This is a significant claimed ground advance, indicating a westward push. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Два майора reports the "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by the "Vostok" Group of Forces, claiming it's the sixth in the region. The accompanying video confirms ground operations by the 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 29th Army. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF milblogger claim with unit identification)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have "liberated" Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF MoD claim)
    • NEW: Сливочный каприз posts video from the Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka direction (04.09.25) showing artillery strikes, damaged buildings, and both Ukrainian and Russian flags in contested territory, indicating active ground combat with claimed territorial changes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF milblogger with video evidence)
    • C2/Intelligence: Coordinated deep strike and ground operations continue. RF IO is highly active, consolidating anti-Western narratives, promoting RF resilience and diplomatic influence, while also addressing internal security issues. Actively training personnel with FPV drones. Publicly crowdfunding for drones. Putin's press conference was a major IO event. RF IO is now actively deflecting Trump's "conspiracy" claims and using highly derogatory language against Zelenskyy. Trump's planned call with Putin is being amplified, though later clarified by UAF sources as a call with Zelenskyy, but US Ambassador Monica Crowley now states Trump wants to find common ground with RF in various spheres during talks with Putin. RF IO is promoting communistic social policies, celebrating infrastructure in Bryansk region, and promoting industrial self-sufficiency. RF is utilizing nationalistic cultural events for morale. RF IO is propagating conspiracy theories about opposition deaths in Germany. RF is also leveraging historical narratives to assert influence over European capitals. RF IO continues to push narratives about UK sanctions being cynical and deflect accusations of child abduction. RF IO is also using conspiracy theories (Epstein) to undermine Western institutions. RF IO is leveraging UAF statements on "frozen conflict" for Ukraine. RF IO is pushing a narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. RF IO is using light-hearted content, and providing daily news summaries. RF IO using a photo of Putin at a Chinese-style building to project diplomatic success. RF IO claims Kupyansk was "subsidized" and a reminder of a "totalitarian regime." RF IO also mocks Zelenskyy's actions. RF actor-volunteer interview reinforces morale. RF IO uses an ambiguous graphic with Apple logo and date "09 09 25", potentially hinting at future IO or cyber activity aimed at the West. The death of a Russian citizen at Burning Man has potential for IO exploitation. RF IO also includes civilian cultural news to project normalcy. Volgograd airport, previously under restrictions, has lifted them. Sochi airport restrictions were also implemented, then lifted. Gaza City before/after video is RF IO. RF IO highlights economic stability. RF IO is actively promoting China's military parade and linking it to Taiwan's fears. RF IO is leveraging the US court ruling on Harvard grants. The EEF is a major platform for RF IO to project economic and diplomatic strength. The strategic dialogue with the GCC is an example of RF's capability to expand diplomatic influence. The focus on military pension indexation and future budget increases for pensioners of "power structures" is a key internal IO effort. Discussions at the EEF on securing funding for Far East energy generation highlight RF's focus on internal economic development. RF IO is now actively countering claims of Western support for Ukraine, with Maria Zakharova stating that Ukraine's security guarantees are "guarantees of danger" for Europe, and that US missile sales contradict settlement talks. RF is also reinforcing internal messaging on pension indexation for working pensioners. RF is openly discussing potential revisions to foreign currency revenue sales for exporters. RF is promoting its energy sector development, including plans for an all-Russia energy meeting and the creation of a Primorye branch of Rosenergoatom. RF is using narratives about the SCO summit causing "hysteria" in the West. New RF internal security threats from scammers are being reported. New proposals regarding educational loan forgiveness for strategic sectors and Rosseti investments in the Far East show internal economic focus. The Amsterdam court denying Gazprom's appeal is a legal setback for RF, but the Khabarovsk governor's openness to ExxonMobil indicates long-term economic strategy. Rosatom's plan to attract borrowed funds for NPPs from 2028 and the Minfin's stance against abandoning cash also indicate long-term economic planning. Gold tokenization is a new technological/economic initiative. The rehearsal footage of the Alexandrov Ensemble for a China trip highlights cultural diplomacy. Maria Zakharova is actively refuting Western reports of a "hybrid attack" on Ursula von der Leyen's plane. The GTLC contract for 50 "Baikal" aircraft for "Aerokhimflot" signals continued internal development of civil aviation. The mine collapse in Yakutia is a localized industrial incident. TASS reports that a former deputy head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations in Kuban, Simonenko, is appealing his dismissal. The Mongolian Prime Minister's arrival at the EEF further expands RF's diplomatic outreach. TASS also reports the Ministry of Emergency Situations will receive nine new Arctic Mi-38 helicopters by the end of the year. Maria Zakharova, at the EEF, stated Russia is closely monitoring NATO's "Namejs 2025" exercises in Latvia. Maria Zakharova, at the EEF, commented on the Ukrainian Ministry of Culture's actions at the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra. Her statements on Azerbaijan and the OSCE Minsk Group confirm an intent to project Russian diplomatic influence. Sergey Tsivilev's interview at the EEF provides a platform for RF to project economic strength. "Fighterbomber" (RF milblogger) posts a generic "Good morning, country!" image. "Paratrooper's Diary" (RF milblogger) provides a general summary. VTB Deputy Chairman Alexander Pakhomov announced at the EEF that Russian bank deposits are expected to grow by 17% in 2025. RF sources ("Operation Z" via Russkaya Vesna) are showcasing humanitarian aid to troops. TASS continuing to report on the "missing minute" from the Epstein video. Basurin o Glavnom (RF milblogger) posts "DAYinHISTORY."
    • NEW: TASS reports FSB detained a 35-year-old SBU agent in Kherson Oblast for espionage against RF military units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) reports Germany is discussing troop redeployment to Poland, citing NYT. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Север.Реалии reports statements at the EEF on "technical stagnation" and a decline comparable to the 1990s crisis in Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: TASS reports factors strengthening the ruble at the beginning of the year are no longer working. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: TASS reports Dima Bilan, Zivert, and Mari Kraimbreri as most popular radio performers in Russia over summer. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: TASS reports the "Coalition of the Willing" participants cannot agree on troop deployment in Ukraine, citing FT, and that the coalition is divided into three parts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Новости Москвы reports a "Motobezopasnost" raid in Moscow from Sep 5-7. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ASTRA reports Z-propagandist Kashevarova claimed the formation of units from military personnel with hepatitis and HIV, who will be issued distinctive armbands. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: TASS reports Uniqlo holding applied for 10 trademarks with Rospatent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Военкор Котенок posts videos and images related to volunteer efforts ("Dobryy Slon" foundation) to support lonely elderly people in Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: TASS reports tour operators have not received mass complaints from Russians in Turkey about a "strange virus" on beaches. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Putin familiarized himself with an interactive presentation on the development of the Far East and received reports on work done. This is a clear IO effort to project competent governance and economic development. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova stated at the EEF that "Russia once saved Germany. Now the German people must awaken and save themselves; the situation in the country is comparable to a pulled self-destruction pin." This is aggressive, revisionist IO aimed at dividing NATO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Kotsnews posts "Merz threatens revenge," an RF milblogger comment framing German political discourse. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Fighterbomber posts a comment critical of historical narratives regarding the Red Army. This indicates internal RF discourse on military history and identity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov stated at the EEF that the Russian economy is cooling faster than expected. This is a rare, open admission of economic difficulty at a major forum, likely for internal messaging to manage expectations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) posts a photo message implying a summit of "willing idiots" today discussing "Ukraine's guarantees." This is RF-aligned anti-Western IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Север.Реалии reports users experienced Google and YouTube outages in various countries. This is a technical issue but could be exploited for IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Deputy Prime Minister Overchuk met with Afghanistan's Ambassador to Moscow Gul Hassan after an EEF session. This highlights RF's diplomatic outreach to non-Western states, including the Taliban regime. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Kotsnews post photo messages with the caption "Военкоры" (milbloggers), featuring portraits of two men. This is IO to promote and humanize RF milbloggers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Degtyarev, at the EEF session "Sports Diplomacy: New Challenges and Opportunities," stated that dozens of football (soccer) executives have changed their rhetoric on changing the limit for foreign players in the country's championship. This is RF IO projecting influence in international sports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС posts a video showing Putin with a delegation, including military personnel, observing urban development plans. This IO portrays Putin as focused on development and projects civil-military cooperation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated that the Russian Federation observes that Ukraine and the EU currently lack the desire to seek peaceful resolutions to the crisis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Moscow is ready to continue dialogue with Kyiv in Istanbul and is open to considering raising the level of delegations, according to Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin. This is an RF IO attempt to project reasonableness and a willingness to negotiate, while controlling the terms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Военкор Котенок reports Western resources are pushing the narrative that the RF Armed Forces are conducting their largest regrouping in three years. This is an RF milblogger acknowledging and framing Western intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Рыбарь posts a photo message celebrating "Nuclear Support Specialist Day," featuring a stylized graphic. This is IO to boost morale and project strength in the nuclear domain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Басурин о главном posts a video showing young contract soldiers learning first aid and evacuation techniques. This is IO to project professionalism and care for personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Новости Москвы posts a video promoting the "Open Water" festival in Krylatskoye, Moscow. This is civilian IO to project normalcy and deflect from military conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Операция Z (via Russkaya Vesna) posts a photo message with "British circus: how The Times sculpts an 'unkillable hero' out of Filimonov," an IO piece against a Ukrainian figure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Germany will propose strengthening Ukraine's air defense and providing equipment for four mechanized brigades at the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting in Paris. This indicates RF awareness of Western support efforts and potential new threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Colonelcassad posts multiple videos showing humanitarian aid (body armor, medical supplies, provisions, hospital beds, infusion pumps, children's nutrition, school supplies, tea sets, raincoats) to RF soldiers and civilian medical facilities/families in Donetsk. This is RF IO to project care for soldiers and civilians, and to encourage public support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Басурин о главном states, "Germany is on a dangerous path to war with Russia," reflecting RF IO to sow fear and division within NATO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Kotsnews posts a photo message with the caption, "How Europe will provoke a big war with Russia," reflecting RF IO. This is an aggressive narrative aimed at portraying Europe as instigators of conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message quoting Maria Zakharova stating Trump's main task is to "save America," and that his peace statements are "courageous." This is RF IO leveraging the US political landscape to its advantage, positioning Trump as a potential ally against perceived "warmongers." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Новости Москвы reports Uniqlo may return to Russia. This is RF economic IO to project normalcy and counter sanctions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: MoD Russia posts videos showing Putin touring a military-patriotic education center and an interactive zone dedicated to Major General Mikhail Gudkov (155th Naval Infantry Brigade). This is RF IO to promote military-patriotic education, boost morale among military personnel, and glorify military heroes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС posts a video showing Putin interacting with female cadets at a military-patriotic center, mentioning parachuting. This is RF IO to promote military-patriotic education and normalize military activities for youth. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts a historical newspaper clipping (1997) involving Donald Trump and Moscow, with commentary suggesting current events are a continuation of historical narratives. This is RF IO leveraging historical context for political messaging. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts a photo message about a conscript fighting military commissariat for four years, reflecting an internal RF issue with mobilization and legal challenges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - internal RF reporting)
    • NEW: Два майора posts a photo message with the caption: "The enemy was caught on camera by an FPV drone on fiber optics. For the last time." This indicates RF's continued active FPV drone operations, likely for reconnaissance and strike against UAF communications. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF milblogger claim)
    • NEW: Два майора posts a video advertising a "military lawyer online" service, featuring a testimonial from a pixelated soldier claiming to have successfully left Ukraine and been dismissed from service in RF with payments. This is RF IO aimed at supporting military personnel with legal issues and possibly encouraging defection/desertion from UAF, or showcasing a path out of military service for RF personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: AV БогомаZ (Bryansk governor) posts photos of a working meeting with Gazprom Energy Sales Tyumen director, discussing investment in Bryansk Oblast. This is RF IO to project economic development and normalcy in a border region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports on Der Spiegel's article about "Coalition of the Willing" having 3 options for sending troops to Ukraine. This is RF IO monitoring and framing Western discussions on military intervention. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС cites Russian propagandist Anastasia Kashevarova's warning about an "epidemic of hepatitis and HIV in Russian troops" spreading to Russia. This is UAF IO leveraging internal RF reports on military health issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Север.Реалии reports Putin's niece claiming Russia's "leadership" in prosthetics due to the war. This is RF IO attempting to reframe negative consequences of war into a positive narrative about medical advancement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Alex Parker Returns quotes NATO SecGen Rutte on Article 5 not extending to Indo-Pacific partners, interpreting it as a "hint" to Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, etc., and using the phrase "Быть добру!" (Good will come of it!), reflecting RF IO aiming to sow doubt among NATO's global partners. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports raising over 17,000 (currency not specified, likely RUB for crowdfunding) in the morning, with just under 50,000 remaining. This indicates ongoing crowdfunding efforts for RF military units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) amplifies a Bloomberg report that "Europe is preparing a package of 'security guarantees' for Ukraine." This is RF IO framing Western support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Putin remotely opened the Pacific Railway via video link. This is RF IO to project infrastructure development and economic progress. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Новости Москвы reports Moscow will begin confirming age by biometrics at self-service checkouts. This is internal RF news, indicating technological adoption for civilian convenience/control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Сливочный каприз posts a graphic about "Railroad workers protest." This could indicate internal labor unrest or an IO campaign. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - ambiguous source)
    • NEW: КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UAF source) provides an update on yesterday's satellite images regarding strikes in Crimea, citing "Militarny" and "Astra" that "Flamingo" cruise missiles likely hit six hovercraft (A25 "Parus," "Siverko-25," and "Khivus-10"), with visual confirmation for four and one serviceman killed. This confirms UAF deep strike capability against naval targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports The Smiths vocalist Morrissey is selling all rights and licenses. This is civilian news, no military relevance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) voted to resume direct broadcasts of its sessions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF official report)
    • NEW: Басурин о главном posts an ad for a "Toyota Corolla" giveaway. This is civilian content, likely for channel promotion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Colonelcassad reports RF Energy Minister Tsivilev stated Russia will supply China with over 100 billion cubic meters of gas per year. This highlights deepening RF-China energy cooperation and economic strategy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF:
      • Air Defense: Operating under intense pressure, successfully intercepting a high volume of drones and missiles, but with confirmed fatalities and infrastructure damage. Has secured additional air defense systems from Nordic/Baltic countries. Confirmed a Molniya UAV hit a university in Kharkiv. UAF successfully downed a "Gerbera" reconnaissance drone. Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast. UAF claims significant destruction of RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. All incoming Shahed UAVs towards Odesa/Fontanka were successfully intercepted. UAF Air Force reports a high-speed target on Sumy. Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration reports two UAVs were shot down over the oblast.
      • NEW: STERNENKO provides photos of a fire in an Odesa warehouse due to a drone attack, with DSNS reporting no casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video showing damage to a warehouse and a cargo truck in Odesa due to an RF attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posts a photo message stating "84 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ASTRA reports that Ukraine's Air Force states Russia attacked with 112 UAVs overnight, and UAF neutralized 84 of them. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports that UAF air defense neutralized 84 out of 112 drones overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Шеф Hayabusa posts photos of damage in Sloviansk after a night attack, confirming RF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Шеф Hayabusa posts photos of damage in Odesa after Shahed attacks from "all sides," confirming widespread strikes and UAF defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for Chernihiv Oblast (Nizhyn district) regarding enemy strike UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for Chernihiv Oblast regarding enemy strike UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorod district) regarding enemy strike UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports the destruction of an S-300V SAM system in the Zaporizhzhia direction by the "Lazar" Separate Special Purpose Regiment of the 27th Pecheneg National Guard Brigade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ASTRA reports one person killed, six injured after Russian strikes on Kharkiv Oblast, citing police. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV in the Black Sea waters near Odesa Oblast and advises seeking shelter if an alarm is announced. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for "Threat of ballistic weaponry from the south." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues an "ATTENTION" alert for missile threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Николаевский Ванёк reports "ballistics on Tuzly/Mykolaivka !!!" and "working with adjustment near Tuzly." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: STERNENKO reports "Ballistic threat from the south!" (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Николаевский Ванёк reports a repeat ballistic missile launch targeting Tuzly. This indicates continued active RF missile strikes in the southern direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for Chernihiv Oblast regarding enemy strike UAVs. This indicates ongoing RF drone activity in the northern regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Николаевский Ванёк reports that the ballistic missile threat to Tuzly has been neutralized ("minus"). This indicates successful UAF air defense or a missile failure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ (Militarny) reports UAF likely struck two RF radar complexes, RLC-1 "Navigation South," in Rostov region overnight. This indicates a potential UAF deep strike capability against RF air defense assets. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ASTRA reports three people were wounded in Zaporizhzhia city after a Russian drone attack. This confirms direct civilian impact of RF drone strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for Sumy Oblast regarding enemy strike UAVs. This indicates an expanding or shifting area of RF drone operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports three people wounded in Zaporizhzhia from an attack. This reiterates the human cost of RF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports one person wounded after an enemy attack on a utility company vehicle in Orikhiv. This demonstrates RF's targeting of civilian infrastructure and personnel involved in essential services. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports air raid alert lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 and РБК-Україна report that the number of wounded in Zaporizhzhia city has increased to four following an enemy attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports one 53-year-old woman was wounded in Zaporizhzhia Raion following an enemy attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UAF source) provides an update on satellite images regarding strikes in Crimea, confirming likely hit on six hovercraft ("Flamingo" cruise missiles), visual confirmation for four, and one serviceman killed. This highlights successful UAF deep strike capability against naval targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • Ground Forces: Maintaining defensive posture under intense pressure in Sieversk and Kupyansk. Denying RF claims of control in Kupyansk, but DeepState confirms RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk. Repelling RF forces near Tovste. Employing tactical deception and actively countering enemy infiltration attempts. Pioneering ground robotics for combat, evacuation, and logistics (3rd Assault Brigade "NC13"). Destroying RF artillery, vehicles, antennas, and infantry with drone and artillery strikes. UAF special forces (Shybenyk Squad, 2nd Assault Company, Kraken) are conducting "rusorez" operations in Sumy Oblast. UAF forces are observing and adapting to RF use of anti-thermal imaging cloaks. UAF forces successfully destroyed a Russian engineering vehicle (likely AVLB). UAF General Staff reports an additional +840 RF personnel losses. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 487 strikes on 11 settlements. Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih as "controlled."
      • NEW: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine photo message displays a tactical map. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: STERNENKO reports "did not meet the norm for 'rusorez'" yesterday. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: OTU "Kharkiv" posts an updated image of estimated RF combat losses from 24.02.22 to 04.09.25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: 46th Separate Airmobile Podilsky Brigade of the Airborne Assault Forces of Ukraine posts a photo message with a caption for drone operators. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts a video about training soldiers to counter enemy drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports Kharkiv city and 11 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» posts a video claiming to have captured a Russian assault trooper from Kursk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 posts a video showing aerial footage of military vehicles being struck by artillery and Ukrainian military insignia, with a call for drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that RF forces have carried out their largest regrouping since the 2022 Kyiv battles, amassing a large number of forces for a "final, decisive battle" for the rest of Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia is preparing a new offensive against Ukraine, citing Bloomberg. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: UAF General Staff reports repelling 5 RF army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Сили оборони Півдня України posts a photo message stating they continue to strike enemy deployment locations, firing positions, and rear areas, with an image of a mortar crew in action. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports RF losses on the Pokrovsk direction of between 150-200 casualties over a period of time, with the direction remaining the hottest part of the front. Another report states 60,000 "rashists" lost on the Pokrovsk direction over 10 months. This is UAF IO to highlight RF losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photo messages showing UAF personnel engaged in direct fire with a large caliber weapon. This demonstrates readiness and confidence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: STERNENKO posts a video claiming a group from the 3rd Special Operations Forces Regiment "POPRYVSSE" destroyed and then set fire to an enemy Mavic drone operator's shelter in the Pokrovsk direction. This confirms successful UAF special forces operations against RF UAV assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video from the cockpit of a Ukrainian MiG-29 during a bomb drop on occupier positions. This demonstrates UAF aerial strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Народная милиция ДНР posts a video claiming the destruction of AFU positions, PVD (forward operating base), and a communication antenna by forces of the 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (orb) in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim, UAF defensive position attacked)
      • NEW: MoD Russia posts a video claiming a crew of 2S44 Giatsint-K self-propelled artillery systems obliterated a concealed UAV command post and strongholds of the AFU in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim, UAF defensive position attacked)
      • NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video showing three individuals, interpreted as RF infiltration attempts using thermal-evading cloaks, being targeted, highlighting UAF's ability to identify and engage such tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a map-based photo message regarding the Lyman direction. This indicates UAF's continued defensive posture and engagement in this sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides an informational message regarding the situation in the areas of responsibility of subordinate military units as of 04.09.2025. This provides official UAF assessment of the operational picture in the Kharkiv direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • Naval Forces: Demonstrated capability to conduct successful strikes against RF Black Sea Fleet assets. Ukraine has launched its largest port investment project. Groups of RF UAVs inbound from the Black Sea towards Odesa/Fontanka were all successfully intercepted. RBC-Ukraine video and photos show the aftermath of drone attacks on Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV in the Black Sea waters near Odesa Oblast, with means engaged for shooting it down. This demonstrates active UAF naval air defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (UAF source) provides an update on satellite images regarding strikes in Crimea, confirming likely hit on six hovercraft ("Flamingo" cruise missiles), visual confirmation for four, and one serviceman killed. This highlights successful UAF deep strike capability against naval targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • Information Environment: Actively engaging in diplomatic efforts for support. Implementing internal reforms. Recruiting drone operators. Bolstering morale. Countering RF narratives. Providing humanitarian aid. Promoting domestic defense production. New statement of resolve to "achieve all goals with weapons." Focusing on Kyiv housing/infrastructure restoration. Reporting fire extinguished in Kalush. UAF is using air situation maps to inform the public. UAF is also engaging in discussions about future regulations for men exiting Ukraine. UAF is using the destroyed S-300 and radar for IO. UAF is issuing urgent warnings about incoming drone threats to Odesa. The successful neutralization of all incoming UAVs targeting Odesa/Chornomorsk and other regions provides a strong counter-narrative. UAF leadership is now openly discussing a "frozen conflict" scenario with a pragmatic outlook. UAF Air Force is providing real-time public updates. Operational ZSU reports Zelenskyy's statement that "territorial concessions by Ukraine will open the way for Putin to attack Europe."
      • NEW: TASS reports that the UK has sent over $1 billion from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports Trump stated he seeks a peace agreement between Ukraine and RF, but Zelenskyy and Putin are "not yet ready" for negotiations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ASTRA reports China has not confirmed Putin's statements about "Power of Siberia-2." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports Trump observed the military parade in Beijing with Putin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts photo messages quoting Trump's statement on peace. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: STERNENKO posts photo messages about "Ukrposhta CEO Smelyansky." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: RBC-Ukraine posts a photo message about "Putin's youth army," alleging Kremlin coercion of Ukrainian children to serve Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a series of memorial videos for fallen soldiers, along with a caption criticizing the exchange of a "son for a video." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України posts a video about training soldiers to counter enemy drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports Kharkiv city and 11 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were hit by enemy strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video showing damage to a warehouse and a cargo truck in Odesa due to an RF attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video claiming that drones attacked 17 Russian oil refineries in August, disabling 24.2% of RF's refining capacity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація posts a video for a minute of silence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ posts a photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: КМВА posts a photo message honoring fallen defenders from Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ posts a photo message about Ukraine honoring the fallen with a minute of silence daily at 9:00. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Офіс Генерального прокурора posts a photo message for a nationwide minute of silence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» posts a video claiming to have captured a Russian assault trooper from Kursk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 posts a video showing aerial footage of military vehicles being struck by artillery and Ukrainian military insignia, with a call for drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posts a photo message stating "84 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Canada, following the EU, lowered the price cap on "Katsap" (derogatory for Russian) oil to $47.6 per barrel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: STERNENKO posts a photo with a cartoon cat, indicating a YouTube payment received, and stating "a lot of morning coffee is flying towards 'rusorez'," likely a morale post about funding drone operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Шеф Hayabusa posts a Ukrainian meme reacting positively to news of RF military developments. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia is preparing a new offensive against Ukraine, citing Bloomberg. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: UAF General Staff reports repelling 5 RF army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Сили оборони Півдня України posts a photo message stating they continue to strike enemy deployment locations, firing positions, and rear areas, with an image of a mortar crew in action. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ posts a video titled "You are a slave of the Russians!", depicting a verbal altercation between two men, one identified as Uzbek, related to work and nationality. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Шеф Hayabusa posts a message quoting Ukrainian MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak, discussing internal Ukrainian political/economic developments. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: РБК-Україна reports the UK has directed $1.3 billion in revenue from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: РБК-Україна reports that the Russian economy has "zeroed out," with Sberbank's head announcing the beginning of stagnation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source interpretation of RF economic situation)
      • NEW: STERNENKO posts a video claiming "Russians are preparing our abducted children for war against Ukraine," with footage of youth military training and propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the completion of a pre-trial investigation into the death of an inmate at Kyiv pre-trial detention center, with indictments against 14 suspects. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports RF losses on the Pokrovsk direction of between 150-200 casualties over a period of time, with the direction remaining the hottest part of the front. Another report states 60,000 "rashists" lost on the Pokrovsk direction over 10 months. This is UAF IO to highlight RF losses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photo messages showing UAF personnel engaged in direct fire with a large caliber weapon. This is UAF IO to project readiness and combat effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: STERNENKO posts a video claiming a group from the 3rd Special Operations Forces Regiment "POPRYVSSE" destroyed and then set fire to an enemy Mavic drone operator's shelter in the Pokrovsk direction. This is UAF IO highlighting successful special forces operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: РБК-Україна reports Macron stated that the preparation of security guarantees for Ukraine is complete. This is significant UAF-aligned diplomatic IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video from the cockpit of a Ukrainian MiG-29 during a bomb drop on occupier positions. This is UAF IO highlighting air force capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues an "ATTENTION" alert for missile threat. This is UAF public safety and alert IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Николаевский Ванёк reports "ballistics on Tuzly/Mykolaivka !!!" and "working with adjustment near Tuzly." This is UAF public alert IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: STERNENKO reports "Ballistic threat from the south!" This is UAF public alert IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ТАСС reports Germany will propose strengthening Ukraine's air defense and providing equipment for four mechanized brigades at the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting in Paris. This is positive UAF-aligned IO on continued Western support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: РБК-Україна reports the dollar depreciated in exchange offices. This is UAF-aligned economic IO to project stability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ (Militarny) reports UAF likely struck two RF radar complexes, RLC-1 "Navigation South," in Rostov region overnight. This is UAF IO highlighting deep strike capabilities. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports 139 children from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast were sent to Zakarpattia and Kyiv oblasts for recreation. This is UAF IO on civilian support and resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ASTRA reports three people were wounded in Zaporizhzhia city after a Russian drone attack. This is UAF-aligned IO on RF war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ASTRA reports London sent £1 billion in weapons to Kyiv using frozen Russian assets. This is UAF-aligned IO on international support and RF's consequences. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ASTRA reports approximately 90 Ukrainians are held in "prison-like conditions" near Smolensk, awaiting deportation, including women and individuals with AIDS, describing severe lack of internet access and poor health conditions. This is UAF-aligned IO highlighting RF human rights abuses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: STERNENKO reports the head of Sberbank stated the Russian economy entered "technical stagnation" and is "moving towards zero indicators." This is UAF-aligned IO to highlight RF economic vulnerability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports three people wounded in Zaporizhzhia from an attack. This is UAF-aligned IO on RF war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports one person wounded after an enemy attack on a utility company vehicle in Orikhiv. This is UAF-aligned IO on RF war crimes and targeting of civilian services. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports air raid alert lifted. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 and РБК-Україна report that the number of wounded in Zaporizhzhia city has increased to four following an enemy attack. This is UAF-aligned IO on RF war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports one 53-year-old woman was wounded in Zaporizhzhia Raion following an enemy attack. This is UAF-aligned IO on RF war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: РБК-Україна reports the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) voted to resume direct broadcasts of its sessions. This is UAF IO highlighting transparency and democratic processes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) voted to resume direct broadcasts of its sessions. This is UAF IO highlighting transparency and democratic processes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides an informational message regarding the situation in the areas of responsibility of subordinate military units as of 04.09.2025. This is UAF IO providing transparency on the situation in the Kharkiv operational area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • Counter-Intelligence/Anti-Corruption: SBU actively detaining agent groups. General Prosecutor preventing illegal property transfers. NAZK anti-corruption guide indicates continued focus on internal governance.
      • NEW: TASS reports FSB detained a 35-year-old SBU agent in Kherson Oblast for espionage against RF military units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

  • Capabilities:

    • Sustained and Adaptive Multi-Domain Strikes: RF continues persistent missile and drone strikes targeting Ukraine's defense industry, fuel infrastructure, and railway infrastructure. Civilian casualties remain a consequence of these strikes, with new confirmed casualties in Zaporizhzhia (4 wounded) and Orikhiv (2 wounded). RF demonstrates the ability to adapt its targeting (e.g., UAF UAV operator locations, UAV launch points, educational institutions). The volume of drone attacks remains high (112 UAVs overnight), demonstrating capacity for large-scale, coordinated air strikes against urban infrastructure, despite UAF interceptions. RF maintains robust air defense capabilities (claiming 46 UAF UAVs shot down). RF continues to test missile/rocket launch capabilities and employs heavy unguided munitions like FAB-3000. RF also uses advanced EW capabilities to counter UAF drones.
    • NEW: Rybar's "Eyes on Orbit" videos showing multi-stage rocket/missile launches underscore RF's continued capability for such launches, military or space-related. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Два майора's video showing an aerial strike on a small boat with personnel indicates RF's capability for targeted strikes on watercraft and personnel in riverine/coastal environments. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: MoD Russia's claim of neutralizing a Bradley IFV indicates RF's continued ATGM effectiveness against armored vehicles and ground targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: MoD Russia posts a video claiming a crew of 2S44 Giatsint-K self-propelled artillery systems obliterated a concealed UAV command post and strongholds of the AFU in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. This demonstrates RF's capability for precise artillery strikes against UAF C2 and fortified positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast. This confirms RF's continued capability to employ guided aerial bombs with a wide range, extending to northern oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Narodnaia Militsia DNR video claims destruction of AFU positions, PVD, and antenna by 68th orb. This indicates RF's persistent capability for reconnaissance and targeted strikes against UAF forward positions and communication infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Два майора posts a video claiming a ZALA "Lancet" drone identified camouflaged UAF artillery in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, followed by an aerial strike. This clearly demonstrates RF's continued capability for precision loitering munition attacks against UAF artillery assets, using real-time ISR. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Colonelcassad posts a video on Bryansk border region, showing drone reconnaissance of a communication tower (identifying communication system, transformer), a mortar position, and vehicles, followed by aerial strikes. This illustrates RF's layered ISR and strike capability, including against potential cross-border incursions or support infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Colonelcassad posts a video claiming Russian helicopter crews struck a UAV command post on the Kupyansk tactical direction. This demonstrates RF's capability to deploy rotary-wing assets for targeted strikes against UAF UAV C2, even in contested urban areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Concentrated Ground Offensive with Adaptive & Hybrid Tactics: RF can concentrate forces for localized gains and maintain intense pressure in urban environments (Kupyansk). DeepState confirms RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk. RF continues localized offensive actions on multiple axes (Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Yanvarske, Chervonaya Dibrova, Grigorievka, Pokrovsk). The adoption of anti-thermal imaging cloaks demonstrates an intent to circumvent UAF drone/thermal surveillance advantages. RF is capable of conducting sustained, aggressive ground assaults and is preparing for a "final, decisive battle" for the rest of Donetsk Oblast. RF milbloggers confirm active combat in the Pokrovsk direction. RF also shows interest and potential in soldier enhancement technologies (Ant exoskeleton).
    • NEW: "Operation Z" video of an FPV drone strike near Sumy border confirms active RF ground operations and drone use in the Sumy border region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Colonelcassad drone footage of high-precision strikes on UAF trench positions demonstrates RF's capability for targeted ground attacks using drones to degrade UAF defensive lines. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Rybar's map-based analysis of the Shcherbinovka operations clearly indicates RF's capability to achieve tactical encirclement and territorial gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: TASS reports RF military advances near Chervonaya Dibrova (LNR) and control of 5 hectares of forest near Grigorievka (DNR), indicating RF's capability to execute localized ground advances. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Zvиздец Мангусту's summary indicates RF's capability for strategic planning and force reallocation, specifically mentioning the Sieversk direction and regrouping for the Pokrovsk assault. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Mash на Донбассе's video claiming the Russian army began assaulting Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, showing UAV footage of strikes, demonstrates RF's capability to launch ground assaults into new areas, supported by aerial assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Colonelcassad posts a video claiming the recent capture of a Ukrainian DRG (sabotage and reconnaissance group) in Bryansk Oblast. This demonstrates RF's counter-insurgency/counter-sabotage capabilities and border security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Воин DV posts a video claiming scouts from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade located a camouflaged enemy vehicle in the forests west of Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). This demonstrates RF's advanced reconnaissance capabilities, including special forces in deep areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Воин DV (RF milblogger, Vostok Group of Forces) claims the "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, supported by video showing artillery strikes, damage, RF flags, and soldiers. This confirms RF's capability for significant territorial gains and offensive operations into new oblasts, potentially supported by heavy firepower. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's video, even from a UAF perspective, highlights RF's capability to employ anti-thermal cloaks for infiltration attempts, indicating an adaptive tactical approach. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Два майора reports the "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by the "Vostok" Group of Forces, including unit identification (36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 29th Army). This indicates a specific RF unit with the capability to execute offensive ground operations, leading to claimed territorial gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have "liberated" Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This indicates RF's capability to conduct successful offensive operations and claim territorial gains in the Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Сливочный каприз's video from the Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka direction demonstrates RF's capability for combined arms operations involving aerial reconnaissance, artillery strikes, and ground movements to secure contested territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Comprehensive Information Warfare and Expanded Diplomatic Leverage: RF possesses robust capabilities to conduct diverse narrative campaigns, manipulate information, and engage in extensive diplomatic outreach (EEF, China, DPRK, "Taliban"). RF leverages both domestic and international platforms to project strength, economic resilience, and a multi-polar world order. RF actively counters Western narratives and exploits internal issues of Ukraine and Western countries. RF milbloggers play a significant role in disseminating IO and maintaining morale. RF is implementing internal security measures (SIM card control) and combatting internal threats (scammers).
    • NEW: TASS reports FSB detained a 35-year-old SBU agent in Kherson Oblast, demonstrating RF's counter-intelligence capabilities and intent to suppress espionage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) reports Germany is discussing troop redeployment to Poland, citing NYT, which RF IO will use to fuel anti-NATO narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Север.Реалии reports statements at the EEF on "technical stagnation" and a decline comparable to the 1990s crisis in Russia, which could be an attempt to manage internal economic expectations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: TASS reports factors strengthening the ruble at the beginning of the year are no longer working, indicating RF's awareness of currency challenges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ASTRA reports Z-propagandist Kashevarova claimed the formation of units from military personnel with hepatitis and HIV, who will be issued distinctive armbands. This indicates a potential RF capability to form specialized units from personnel with health conditions, and likely a highly controversial IO narrative to dehumanize these forces or provoke outrage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Putin familiarized himself with an interactive presentation on the development of the Far East and received reports on work done. This is an IO capability to project governmental effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova stated at the EEF that "Russia once saved Germany. Now the German people must awaken and save themselves; the situation in the country is comparable to a pulled self-destruction pin." This demonstrates RF's aggressive, revisionist IO capabilities aimed at creating discord within NATO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov stated at the EEF that the Russian economy is cooling faster than expected. This indicates a degree of transparency in RF economic reporting, potentially for internal expectation management. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/TIEDOTTEЕТ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) posts a photo message implying a summit of "willing idiots" today discussing "Ukraine's guarantees." This shows RF-aligned IO capability to ridicule and dismiss Western diplomatic efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Deputy Prime Prime Minister Overchuk met with Afghanistan's Ambassador to Moscow Gul Hassan after an EEF session. This highlights RF's capability for diplomatic outreach to non-Western states, including the Taliban regime. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Kotsnews post photo messages with the caption "Военкоры" (milbloggers), featuring portraits of two men. This illustrates RF's capability to promote and humanize its milbloggers as a key element of its IO strategy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Degtyarev, at the EEF session "Sports Diplomacy: New Challenges and Opportunities," stated that dozens of football (soccer) executives have changed their rhetoric on changing the limit for foreign players in the country's championship. This highlights RF's IO capability to project influence in international sports, potentially to undermine sanctions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС posts a video showing Putin with a delegation, including military personnel, observing urban development plans. This IO projects a coherent national development strategy with military involvement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated that the Russian Federation observes that Ukraine and the EU currently lack the desire to seek peaceful resolutions to the crisis. This is an RF IO capability to shift blame and control the peace narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Moscow is ready to continue dialogue with Kyiv in Istanbul and is open to considering raising the level of delegations, according to Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin. This is an RF IO capability to project a willingness for dialogue while setting the terms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Операция Z (via Russkaya Vesna) posts a photo message with "British circus: how The Times sculpts an 'unkillable hero' out of Filimonov," an IO piece against a Ukrainian figure. This demonstrates RF's IO capability to discredit and mock Ukrainian figures and Western media. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Germany will propose strengthening Ukraine's air defense and providing equipment for four mechanized brigades at the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting in Paris. This indicates RF awareness of Western support efforts and potential new threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Medvedev threatened to seize "British Crown valuables" in response to the UK transferring frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. This demonstrates RF's capability for aggressive, retaliatory IO and escalation rhetoric. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Colonelcassad posts multiple videos showing humanitarian aid (body armor, medical supplies, provisions, hospital beds, infusion pumps, children's nutrition, school supplies, tea sets, raincoats) to RF soldiers and civilian medical facilities/families in Donetsk. This is RF IO to project care for soldiers and civilians, and to encourage public support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Басурин о главном states, "Germany is on a dangerous path to war with Russia," reflecting RF IO. RF intends to create divisions within NATO and portray Western countries as aggressive instigators. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Kotsnews posts a photo message with the caption, "How Europe will provoke a big war with Russia," reflecting RF IO. This reiterates RF's intent to shift blame for the conflict's continuation and escalation to European states. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message quoting Maria Zakharova stating Trump's main task is to "save America," and that his peace statements are "courageous." RF intends to cultivate a narrative that a powerful Western leader (Trump) is sympathetic to RF's peace proposals, aiming to weaken international support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Новости Москвы reports Uniqlo may return to Russia. RF intends to project economic resilience and undermine the effectiveness of Western sanctions, suggesting that international businesses are returning. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: MoD Russia posts videos showing Putin touring a military-patriotic education center and an interactive zone dedicated to Major General Mikhail Gudkov (155th Naval Infantry Brigade). RF intends to reinforce military-patriotic education among youth and celebrate military heroism to foster national unity and support for the war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС posts a video showing Putin interacting with female cadets, discussing parachuting. This highlights RF's IO capability to promote patriotic education and military service to youth. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts a historical newspaper clipping on Trump and Moscow, used to imply continuity in geopolitical narratives and potentially to frame Trump in a positive light for RF audiences. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники posts on a conscript's struggle with military commissariat. This indicates RF's awareness of internal issues regarding military service and the potential for public discontent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Два майора's FPV drone photo message on fiber optics indicates a capability to conduct targeted ISR and strikes against UAF communication infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Два майора's video advertising military legal services, including a testimonial for successful dismissal, demonstrates an RF IO capability to manage legal challenges for military personnel, potentially influencing morale and recruitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: AV БогомаZ posts photos of a working meeting on investment in Bryansk Oblast, which is an IO effort to project normalcy and economic development in border regions despite conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports on Der Spiegel's article about "Coalition of the Willing" options. This indicates RF's intelligence collection and IO capabilities to monitor and frame discussions on Western military intervention. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Север.Реалии reports on Putin's niece's claim about Russia's leadership in prosthetics. This showcases RF's IO capability to spin negative war consequences into positive narratives about scientific advancement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Alex Parker Returns' commentary on NATO Article 5 and Indo-Pacific partners highlights RF's IO capability to exploit perceived weaknesses or limitations in Western alliances to sow discord. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's crowdfunding update indicates RF's continued reliance on and promotion of public support for military efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) amplifies a Bloomberg report on Europe's "security guarantees" for Ukraine. This is an RF IO capability to monitor and disseminate information on Western support for Ukraine, likely to portray it as provocative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Putin opening the Pacific Railway. This is RF IO to project national development, economic strength, and long-term strategic planning. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Новости Москвы reports on biometric age confirmation in Moscow. This is internal RF news, indicating a focus on technological implementation for civilian life. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Сливочный каприз posts a graphic about "Railroad workers protest." This could be an RF IO effort to highlight internal issues within Ukraine (if referring to Ukrainian railway workers) or deflect from RF issues, or simply report on internal RF labor issues, but the origin and intent are ambiguous. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - source ambiguous on target of protest)
    • NEW: Colonelcassad reports Energy Minister Tsivilev on gas supply to China. This highlights RF's capability to secure significant long-term energy contracts, reinforcing its "pivot to the East" and economic resilience narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Intentions:

    • Strategic Objective: Degrade Ukrainian Warfighting Capacity, Break National Resilience, and Undermine Western Support. RF intends to systematically target Ukraine's ability to produce and sustain military operations by striking defense industry, fuel, and railway infrastructure, while inflicting civilian casualties. RF aims to cripple Ukraine's ability to wage war, disrupt economic life, and sow public discontent. RF is focused on neutralizing UAF drone advantages through EW and targeting UAV infrastructure.
    • NEW: Rybar's "Eyes on Orbit" videos could be intended to demonstrate RF's continued military prowess and a deterrent capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Два майора's video showing an aerial strike on a boat indicates RF's intent to interdict UAF riverine movements or special operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: MoD Russia's claim of neutralizing a Bradley IFV indicates RF's intent to specifically target and degrade Western-supplied armor and UAF personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: MoD Russia's claimed strike on UAF UAV command post and strongholds in Krasnoarmeysk direction indicates an intent to directly degrade UAF C2 and fortified positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: The КАБ launches on Kharkiv Oblast indicate an intent to expand the deep strike campaign to further degrade UAF's ability to defend its northern territories and support ongoing ground operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Narodnaia Militsia DNR's claimed destruction of AFU positions, PVD, and antenna by 68th orb indicates an intent to actively dismantle UAF forward defenses and communication capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Два майора's video claiming a Lancet strike on UAF artillery in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast shows RF's intent to systematically destroy UAF combat assets, particularly artillery, which pose a threat to RF ground operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Colonelcassad's video from Bryansk border region showing ISR and strikes suggests an intent to deter or neutralize UAF cross-border activity and protect RF border security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Colonelcassad's video of a helicopter strike on a UAV command post in Kupyansk indicates an intent to directly target UAF UAV C2, aiming to degrade UAF drone operational effectiveness in this critical sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Achieve Operational Success in Donbas & Kharkiv Oblasts and Push West into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: RF intends to achieve significant ground gains, particularly in Sieversk and Kupyansk, to secure supply lines and strategic breakthroughs. RF is making efforts to expand the operational area of conflict westward into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The adoption of anti-thermal imaging cloaks demonstrates an intent to circumvent UAF surveillance advantages. RF is preparing for a "final, decisive battle" for the rest of Donetsk Oblast, according to UAF assessment. RF also intends to conduct offensive operations in the Kherson direction.
    • NEW: "Operation Z" video of an FPV drone strike near Sumy border, explicitly linking it to "supporting an advance on Sumy," demonstrates an intent to push ground operations in border regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Colonelcassad's video of drone strikes on UAF trench positions reflects an intent to systematically degrade UAF defenses to enable ground advances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Rybar's map-based analysis of the Shcherbinovka operations clearly indicates RF's intent to achieve tactical encirclement and territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Mash на Донбассе's video claiming the Russian army began assaulting Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicates an explicit intent to push into new oblasts and expand the conflict zone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's claim of UAF using incendiary mixtures in LNR implies an RF intent to defend against or counter such tactics. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Colonelcassad's video of alleged DRG capture in Bryansk Oblast indicates RF's intent to secure its border regions from perceived Ukrainian incursions and sabotage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Воин DV posts a video claiming scouts located an enemy vehicle near Novoselivka, Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast, reflects RF's intent to conduct thorough reconnaissance ahead of or during offensive operations in that area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Воин DV (RF milblogger, Vostok Group of Forces) claims the "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, supported by video. This signifies a clear intent to advance westward and seize new territory, expanding the operational zone and threatening Dnipropetrovsk Oblast directly. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's video, though from UAF perspective, confirms RF's intent to utilize adaptive, covert infiltration tactics (anti-thermal cloaks) to bypass UAF defenses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Два майора reports the "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, further emphasizing RF's intent to advance into central Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports RF MoD claiming "liberation" of Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This indicates RF's intent to expand and consolidate control in the Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Сливочный каприз's video from the Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka direction clearly shows RF's intent to continue offensive operations, seize territory, and assert control through the display of flags. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Consolidate Anti-Western Bloc & Project Strength: RF seeks to deepen strategic cooperation with non-Western nations and project an image of global influence and technological prowess. RF uses extensive IO to reinforce domestic support and counter Western narratives. RF intends to exploit perceived divisions in Western European foreign policy and garner support from more accommodating political figures. RF continues to challenge the existing global order and foster a multi-polar world narrative. RF intends to project normalcy and international legitimacy in sports despite current sanctions. RF aims to discredit Ukrainian authorities and undermine public trust.
    • NEW: TASS reports FSB detained a 35-year-old SBU agent in Kherson Oblast, reflecting RF's intent to secure occupied territories and conduct counter-intelligence operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) reports Germany is discussing troop redeployment to Poland, which RF IO will use to fuel anti-NATO narratives and sow divisions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Север.Реалии reports statements at the EEF on "technical stagnation" and a decline comparable to the 1990s crisis in Russia, which RF IO could use to set expectations for its economic trajectory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ASTRA reports Z-propagandist Kashevarova claimed the formation of units from military personnel with hepatitis and HIV, who will be issued distinctive armbands. This highly unusual claim, if true, indicates an RF intent to use all available manpower, regardless of health status, potentially in high-risk "assault" roles, while simultaneously creating a dehumanizing, discriminatory system. For IO purposes, this could be intended to shock and demonstrate desperation or to project a ruthless commitment to the war effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Putin familiarized himself with an interactive presentation on the development of the Far East and received reports on work done. This is intended to project a strong, forward-looking image of RF governance and economic strategy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova stated at the EEF that "Russia once saved Germany. Now the German people must awaken and save themselves; the situation in the country is comparable to a pulled self-destruction pin." This is intended to sow discord within NATO, appeal to anti-German sentiment, and justify RF's actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov stated at the EEF that the Russian economy is cooling faster than expected. This indicates an intent to manage domestic expectations regarding the economic situation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/TIEDOTТЕЕТ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) posts a photo message implying a summit of "willing idiots" today discussing "Ukraine's guarantees." This is intended to delegitimize Western diplomatic efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Deputy Prime Prime Minister Overchuk met with Afghanistan's Ambassador to Moscow Gul Hassan after an EEF session. This indicates an intent to solidify diplomatic and economic ties with non-Western actors, including the Taliban, challenging Western influence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Kotsnews post photo messages promoting "Военкоры" (milbloggers). This indicates an intent to elevate the status and reach of pro-RF military commentators. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Degtyarev, at the EEF session "Sports Diplomacy: New Challenges and Opportunities," stated that dozens of football (soccer) executives have changed their rhetoric on changing the limit for foreign players in the country's championship. This indicates an intent to undermine Western sanctions in the sports sector and project a return to normalcy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС posts a video showing Putin with a delegation, including military personnel, observing urban development plans. This is intended to project a unified leadership focused on long-term national development, including strategic infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated that the Russian Federation observes that Ukraine and the EU currently lack the desire to seek peaceful resolutions to the crisis. This is intended to shift blame for the continuation of the conflict onto Ukraine and the EU. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Moscow is ready to continue dialogue with Kyiv in Istanbul and is open to considering raising the level of delegations, according to Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin. This indicates an intent to project a willingness for dialogue while setting the terms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Операция Z (via Russkaya Vesna) posts a photo message with "British circus: how The Times sculpts an 'unkillable hero' out of Filimonov," an IO piece against a Ukrainian figure. This indicates an intent to discredit Ukrainian figures and Western media outlets that support Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Germany will propose strengthening Ukraine's air defense and providing equipment for four mechanized brigades at the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting in Paris. RF intends to monitor and counter new Western aid packages to Ukraine, using this information for its IO to portray Western involvement as escalatory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Medvedev threatened to seize "British Crown valuables" in response to the UK transferring frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. This indicates an intent to use aggressive rhetoric and threats of retaliation to deter further Western support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Colonelcassad posts multiple videos showing humanitarian aid to RF soldiers and civilian medical facilities/families in Donetsk. RF intends to bolster domestic support for the war effort and project a humanitarian image, both internally and externally. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Басурин о главном states, "Germany is on a dangerous path to war with Russia," reflecting RF IO. RF intends to create divisions within NATO and portray Western countries as aggressive instigators. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Kotsnews posts a photo message with the caption, "How Europe will provoke a big war with Russia," reflecting RF IO. This reiterates RF's intent to shift blame for the conflict's continuation and escalation to European states. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message quoting Maria Zakharova stating Trump's main task is to "save America," and that his peace statements are "courageous." RF intends to cultivate a narrative that a powerful Western leader (Trump) is sympathetic to RF's peace proposals, aiming to weaken international support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Новости Москвы reports Uniqlo may return to Russia. RF intends to project economic resilience and undermine the effectiveness of Western sanctions, suggesting that international businesses are returning. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: MoD Russia posts videos showing Putin touring a military-patriotic education center and an interactive zone dedicated to Major General Mikhail Gudkov (155th Naval Infantry Brigade). RF intends to reinforce military-patriotic education among youth and celebrate military heroism to foster national unity and support for the war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС posts a video showing Putin interacting with female cadets, discussing parachuting. This is intended to promote military-patriotic education and normalize military involvement for youth. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts a historical newspaper clipping (1997) involving Donald Trump and Moscow, which is intended to suggest a long-standing, complex relationship and frame current events as a continuation of historical patterns for RF audiences. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники post about a conscript's legal fight. This may be intended to demonstrate that legal recourse exists within the RF system, or to highlight internal issues, but the intent is complex and could be both. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Два майора's FPV drone photo on fiber optics is intended to demonstrate effective ISR and targeting of UAF communication infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Два майора's video advertising military legal services is intended to provide support for RF military personnel and potentially to encourage defection/desertion from UAF, or to normalize legal exits from RF military service. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: AV БогомаZ posts photos on investment in Bryansk Oblast. This is intended to project stability, economic development, and effective governance in border regions, countering narratives of war-induced instability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports on Der Spiegel's article regarding "Coalition of the Willing" options. This is intended to monitor and frame discussions on Western military intervention, potentially using it to warn of escalation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Север.Реалии reports on Putin's niece's claim about prosthetics. This is intended to spin a negative consequence of war (injuries) into a narrative of scientific and medical advancement, projecting RF ingenuity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Alex Parker Returns' commentary on NATO Article 5 and Indo-Pacific partners is intended to sow discord and exploit perceived limitations in Western alliances, potentially encouraging non-aligned states to remain so. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's crowdfunding update is intended to mobilize public support and resources for RF military units, reinforcing a sense of national collective effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) amplifying Bloomberg's report on Europe's "security guarantees" for Ukraine is intended to monitor and frame Western support as a provocative action. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: ТАСС reports Putin opening the Pacific Railway. This is intended to showcase RF's focus on national development and long-term economic strategy, projecting stability and growth. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Новости Москвы reports on biometric age confirmation. This is intended to highlight technological advancements and modernization in civilian life within RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NEW: Сливочный каприз posts a graphic about "Railroad workers protest." If this refers to Ukrainian railway workers, it would be intended to sow discord or highlight internal issues. If RF railway workers, it could be an internal report or a controlled release of information. Intent is ambiguous. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - ambiguous source/target)
    • NEW: Colonelcassad reports Energy Minister Tsivilev on gas supply to China. This is intended to highlight RF's deepening energy partnership with China, reinforcing its pivot to the East and showcasing economic resilience despite Western sanctions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Courses of Action (COAs):

    • MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action):
      1. RF will continue to **maintain intense offensive pressure on the Sieversk axis to achieve an operational encirclement. RF will likely commit its main effort to seizing full control of Kupyansk, escalating urban combat and attempting to interdict UAF reinforcements, capitalizing on its confirmed presence and infiltration attempts in the city, and capitalizing on fragmented UAF defenses, as well as conducting reconnaissance-in-force toward Dnepropetrovsk Oblast. RF will actively promote claims of UAF surrender in Kupyansk through its IO, even if unverified. RF will seek to consolidate and exploit claimed gains around Kamyshevakha to advance further in Donetsk Oblast, potentially threatening access to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF will attempt to exploit claimed control of Yanvarske and its current assaults on Novoselivka to further advance westward in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, establishing new forward positions and potentially securing key logistical routes. RF will also likely prepare for offensive operations in the Kherson direction, evidenced by claims of UAF mining Karantynny Island, aiming to seize further territory in southern Ukraine. The RF will also continue localized ground advances, as reported near Chervonaya Dibrova and Grigorievka, to achieve small tactical gains and probe UAF defenses. RF milbloggers will continue to provide "Frontline summaries" to frame these operations. RF will likely continue aerial strikes on UAF riverine/naval assets, as demonstrated by the strike on the boat in the Dnipro. This includes any operations on the Dobropillya direction. Localized offensive pressure on the Pokrovsk axis will continue, attempting to counter UAF gains and exploit any weaknesses (e.g., continued small group tactics), likely resulting in further damage to civilian infrastructure as observed by UAF drones and successful destruction of UAF motorized units on approaches. The RF 506th Regiment will continue active combat operations in the Pokrovsk area. RF will continue to showcase social infrastructure development in occupied territories like LNR to project stability and normalcy. RF will actively document any tactical successes (e.g., damaged military vehicles, destruction of UAF artillery/equipment) for IO purposes, including misattributing destruction of its own engineering vehicles to UAF. Localized assaults in the Vovchansk direction will persist, supported by Msta-S howitzer operations, BM-21 Grad MLRS, and drone/artillery strikes in the Kharkiv direction, including targeting UAF artillery in settlements. RF will actively seek to disrupt UAF logistics via further strikes on railway infrastructure and will continue air-launched КАБ strikes, expanding to new areas like Donetsk Oblast and Sumy Oblast, and specifically targeting UAF defense industry, and will continue indiscriminate shelling/drone attacks on civilian population centers (e.g., Kostiantynivka, Nikopol region, Chuhuiv community, Odesa/Fontanka, Pokrovsk), including use of FPV drones. RF will likely attempt to conduct further strikes on transportation infrastructure to disrupt UAF logistics and movement. RF will continue to actively target UAF UAV operator locations and UAV launch points. RF will continue to target educational facilities, as evidenced by the "Molniya" UAV strike on a Kharkiv university. New Shahed threats in Donetsk Oblast and towards Belozerske/Dobropillya are consistent with this. UAF special forces operations in Sumy Oblast are a new dynamic to this MLCOA, with RF likely to counter these incursions with increased security or fire. RF will continue to utilize anti-thermal imaging cloaks to facilitate covert infiltration operations. RF will continue to use heavy unguided munitions like FAB-3000 against suspected UAF strongpoints or troop concentrations. RF forces have made their largest regrouping since 2022 and are preparing for a "decisive battle" for the rest of Donetsk Oblast, according to UAF assessment. Bloomberg also reports RF preparing a new offensive against Ukraine. RF will continue to repel UAF assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. RF will continue drone-guided strikes on fortified positions and personnel. RF will continue to develop and promote military innovations such as the "Ant" exoskeleton. RF milbloggers will continue to call for public support and crowdfunding for ground forces. RF will continue to employ ATGMs (e.g., Fagot) against UAF armored vehicles and ground positions. RF will continue UAV operator training, as observed in the Konstantinovsky direction, to sustain and improve drone warfare capabilities. RF will actively seek to interdict and capture Ukrainian DRG (sabotage and reconnaissance groups) operating in its border regions, as evidenced by the claimed capture in Bryansk Oblast, and will exploit these incidents for IO. RF special forces will actively conduct reconnaissance missions in new operational areas, such as west of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, to support and precede ground assaults. RF will continue its offensive into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, solidifying claimed control over Novoselivka and probing further westward. RF will attempt to consolidate claimed control of Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF will continue ground operations in the Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      2. RF will conduct **sustained, medium-to-high volume drone and missile strikes, with a heightened focus on defense industry, fuel, and railway infrastructure targets, alongside opportunistic strikes on population centers resulting in civilian casualties, and now also targeting educational institutions, and a renewed focus on Odesa/Fontanka from the Black Sea with a large group of Shaheds. Although the latest wave against Odesa was successfully intercepted, RF will likely launch subsequent waves. Expect continued ballistic missile launches from the northeast, high-speed targets on Sumy, and КАБ launches on Zaporizhzhia, and now additionally targeting Kharkiv Oblast. Expect the use of FAB-3000 to become a more regular feature against suspected UAF strongpoints or troop concentrations. RF will also continue aerial strikes on UAF riverine/naval assets. RF will continue to test missile/rocket launch capabilities, as seen in Rybar's "Eyes on Orbit" videos. Expect continued targeting of critical infrastructure, logistics hubs, and military installations across Ukraine. RF will leverage claimed "modernized drones" and precision munitions like Lancet to target UAF military assets. The new ЛМУР strike on a UAF UAV launch point is indicative of RF's continued focus on degrading UAF drone capabilities. New UAV groups targeting various Ukrainian regions are consistent with this COA. New Shahed threats in Donetsk Oblast and towards Belozerske/Dobropillya are also consistent with this. New КАБ launches on Sumy Oblast extend this aerial threat. The UAV strike in Krasnodar Krai may provoke increased RF air defense measures or a more aggressive posture for cross-border strikes. RF will also claim successful interception of Ukrainian UAVs over its territory (e.g., Rostov Oblast) to project defensive capabilities. RF will also leverage its diverse drone capabilities, including "Rubikon" air defense combat groups, for enhanced reconnaissance and target acquisition. The newly detected UAV group from northern Sumy to Chernihiv Oblast is consistent with this sustained aerial reconnaissance and strike COA. RF will also actively employ electronic warfare (EW) to counter UAF drone activity, particularly on the Zaporizhzhia front. RF will continue to defend its airspace against UAF cross-border UAV strikes. RF attacked with 112 UAVs overnight, with 28 UAVs confirmed to have reached their targets, indicating continued capacity for large-scale, adaptive aerial assaults. RF milbloggers will continue to claim higher numbers of downed Ukrainian drones. RF will continue to express concerns about UAF's alleged development of ground-based cruise missiles. RF will continue to employ long-range artillery systems, such as 2S44 Giatsint-K, for precision strikes against UAF command posts, strongholds, and other fixed targets, particularly in contested areas like Krasnoarmeysk. RF will continue to strike UAF UAV command posts, particularly in the Kupyansk tactical direction, using helicopter assets. RF will continue to target civilian areas in Zaporizhzhia and Orikhiv with drones/artillery, resulting in further casualties. RF will likely intensify ISR and potentially strikes near its northwestern border, in response to NATO ISR flights. RF will continue FPV drone operations against UAF communications infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      3. RF Information Operations will heavily amplify claims of successful ground gains in Sieversk, Kupyansk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts), Yanvarske, Chervonaya Dibrova, and Grigorievka, and will prepare narratives for anticipated advances in Kherson. Messaging will aggressively highlight the deepening RF-DPRK, RF-Vietnam, RF-China, and RF-Congo relationships as a sign of global support and a counter to Western isolation. Narratives will continue to promote Russia's diplomatic influence, technological resilience, and economic resilience, while relentlessly pushing anti-Western rhetoric. Expect narratives to focus on the alleged "difficult winter" for Ukraine and increased internal information control measures. Putin's statements on Zelenskyy's legitimacy, the need for referendums, and the invitation for Zelenskyy to meet in Moscow will be central to RF IO. RF will actively promote legal avenues for military personnel to leave service. RF will continue to promote "reconstruction" in occupied territories and nationalistic events. RF will continue to exploit internal societal issues for IO impact. Putin's new claims of widespread RF advances and a dual track of "peace" vs. "military solution," along with claims of critical UAF manning levels and the West sabotaging peace efforts, will be central to this IO push. RF will also signal willingness to raise negotiation level. RF IO is leveraging UAF statements on a "frozen conflict" scenario. RF IO is pushing a narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. RF IO is using light-hearted content and daily news summaries. RF IO using a photo of Putin at a Chinese-style building to project diplomatic success. RF IO claims Kupyansk was "subsidized" and a reminder of a "totalitarian regime." RF IO also mocks Zelenskyy's actions. RF actor-volunteer interview reinforces morale. RF IO uses an ambiguous graphic with Apple logo and date "09 09 25". The death of a Russian citizen at Burning Man has potential for IO exploitation. RF IO also includes civilian cultural news to project normalcy. Volgograd airport, previously under restrictions, has lifted them. Sochi airport restrictions were also implemented, then lifted. Gaza City before/after video is RF IO. RF IO highlights economic stability. RF IO is actively promoting China's military parade and linking it to Taiwan's fears. RF IO is leveraging the US court ruling on Harvard grants. The ongoing Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) is a major platform for RF IO to demonstrate economic resilience. The upcoming strategic dialogue with the GCC will be framed as a major diplomatic success. The commitment to increasing military pensions and future budget allocations for "power structures" reflects an intent to maintain loyalty. The focus on securing financing for energy generation in the Far East indicates a long-term strategic intent. RF IO is now actively countering claims of Western support for Ukraine. RF is also reinforcing internal messaging on pension indexation. RF is openly discussing potential revisions to foreign currency revenue sales for exporters. RF is promoting its energy sector development. RF is using narratives about the SCO summit causing "hysteria" in the West. New RF internal security threats from scammers are being reported. New proposals regarding educational loan forgiveness for strategic sectors and Rosseti investments in the Far East show internal economic focus. The Amsterdam court denying Gazprom's appeal is a legal setback for RF, but the Khabarovsk governor's openness to ExxonMobil indicates long-term economic strategy. Rosatom's plan to attract borrowed funds for NPPs from 2028 and the Minfin's stance against abandoning cash also indicate long-term economic planning. Gold tokenization is a new technological/economic initiative. The rehearsal footage of the Alexandrov Ensemble for a China trip highlights cultural diplomacy. Maria Zakharova is actively refuting Western reports of a "hybrid attack" on Ursula von der Leyen's plane. The GTLC contract for 50 "Baikal" aircraft for "Aerokhimflot" signals continued internal development of civil aviation. The mine collapse in Yakutia is a localized industrial incident. TASS reports that a former deputy head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations in Kuban, Simonenko, is appealing his dismissal. The Mongolian Prime Minister's arrival at the EEF further expands RF's diplomatic outreach. TASS also reports the Ministry of Emergency Situations will receive nine new Arctic Mi-38 helicopters by the end of the year. Maria Zakharova, at the EEF, stated Russia is closely monitoring NATO's "Namejs 2025" exercises in Latvia. Maria Zakharova, at the EEF, commented on the Ukrainian Ministry of Culture's actions at the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra. Her statements on Azerbaijan and the OSCE Minsk Group confirm an intent to project Russian diplomatic influence. Sergey Tsivilev's interview at the EEF provides a platform for RF to project economic strength. "Fighterbomber" posts a generic "Good morning, country!" image. "Paratrooper's Diary" provides a general summary. VTB Deputy Chairman Alexander Pakhomov announced at the EEF that Russian bank deposits are expected to grow by 17% in 2025. RF sources ("Operation Z" via Russkaya Vesna) are showcasing humanitarian aid to troops. TASS continuing to report on the "missing minute" from the Epstein video. Basurin o Glavnom posts "DAYinHISTORY."
      • NEW: "Two Majors" is explicitly attempting to undermine Zelenskyy's credibility by linking him to the "arms lobby." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: TASS amplifying Trump's statements about not being ready for peace, and his "good relations" with key adversaries of the US demonstrates RF's intent to sow division among Ukraine's allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: TASS amplifying Sarkozy's "historical mistake" statement is intended to provide a credible "Western voice" for narratives critical of current European policy towards Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: TASS reports Saldo's claims about Ukraine paying mercenaries with funds for deceased families. This is a direct RF IO attempt to discredit Ukrainian authorities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Басурин о главном posts a video of soldiers examining drone remnants, discussing railway sabotage in Bryansk. This is intended to highlight UAF as a threat to RF internal security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: TASS reports Maria Zakharova stated at the EEF that Trump realizes the catastrophic role the US played in the situation around Ukraine. This is intended to shift blame for the conflict and undermine US support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ASTRA reports Tashkent sent a diplomatic note to Moscow after a video called an Uzbek citizen "a slave of the Russians," indicating potential diplomatic friction for RF which it will likely attempt to downplay. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: TASS reports that Merz ordered maximum concealment of Germany's involvement in supplying cruise missiles to Ukraine, according to the SVR. This is an explicit RF IO attempt to create distrust and undermine German support for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ASTRA reports Z-propagandist Kashevarova claimed the formation of units from military personnel with hepatitis and HIV, who will be issued distinctive armbands. This will be used to generate outrage and dehumanize these forces or project ruthless commitment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ТАСС reports Putin familiarized himself with an interactive presentation on the development of the Far East and received reports on work done. This is intended to project a strong, forward-looking image of RF governance and economic strategy for both domestic and international audiences, especially at the EEF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova stated at the EEF that "Russia once saved Germany. Now the German people must awaken and save themselves; the situation in the country is comparable to a pulled self-destruction pin." This is a highly aggressive and provocative IO narrative aimed at German public opinion, seeking to delegitimize current German leadership and create internal divisions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Kotsnews posts "Merz threatens revenge." This is milblogger framing of German political events, likely used to portray Western leaders as hostile. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ТАСС reports Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov stated at the EEF that the Russian economy is cooling faster than expected. This is an attempt at managing internal expectations, but also a potential weakness for UAF IO to exploit. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/TIEDOTТЕЕТ (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) posts a photo message implying a summit of "willing idiots" today discussing "Ukraine's guarantees." This is consistent with RF-aligned IO efforts to belittle Western diplomatic initiatives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ТАСС reports Deputy Prime Minister Overchuk met with Afghanistan's Ambassador to Moscow Gul Hassan after an EEF session. This is an IO effort to highlight RF's engagement with the Taliban, reinforcing its multi-polar world narrative and challenging Western diplomatic norms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Kotsnews post photo messages promoting "Военкоры" (milbloggers). This is IO aimed at legitimizing milbloggers as credible sources of information for the RF public. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ТАСС reports Degtyarev, at the EEF session "Sports Diplomacy: New Challenges and Opportunities," stated that dozens of football (soccer) executives have changed their rhetoric on changing the limit for foreign players in the country's championship. This is IO aimed at portraying a breakdown of Western consensus on sanctions and a return to normalcy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ТАСС posts a video showing Putin with a delegation, including military personnel, observing urban development plans. This is IO designed to project a competent and unified leadership focused on internal development, with military-civilian synergy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ТАСС reports Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated that the Russian Federation observes that Ukraine and the EU currently lack the desire to seek peaceful resolutions to the crisis. This is a recurring RF IO theme to shift blame and control the peace narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ТАСС reports Moscow is ready to continue dialogue with Kyiv in Istanbul and is open to considering raising the level of delegations, according to Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin. This is an IO move to portray RF as open to negotiations while dictating the terms and location. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Операция Z (via Russkaya Vesna) posts a photo message with "British circus: how The Times sculpts an 'unkillable hero' out of Filimonov," an IO piece against a Ukrainian figure. This is an attempt to discredit Ukrainian figures and Western media. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Рыбарь posts a photo message celebrating "Nuclear Support Specialist Day." This is IO designed to bolster morale within RF's strategic forces and project nuclear strength on a symbolic day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Басурин о главном posts a video showing young contract soldiers learning first aid and evacuation techniques. This is IO designed to project a professional, caring image of the RF military and attract recruits. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Новости Москвы posts a video promoting the "Open Water" festival in Krylatskoye, Moscow. This is civilian-oriented IO to project normalcy and divert attention from the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ТАСС reports Germany will propose strengthening Ukraine's air defense and providing equipment for four mechanized brigades at the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting in Paris. RF IO will likely frame this as an escalation of Western involvement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ТАСС reports Medvedev threatened to seize "British Crown valuables" in response to the UK transferring frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. RF IO will use this as a strong statement of retaliation, attempting to deter further Western asset confiscations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Colonelcassad posts multiple videos showing humanitarian aid to RF soldiers and civilian medical facilities/families in Donetsk. RF IO will continue to use these to project an image of a caring state, bolster morale, and encourage public support for the military. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Басурин о главном states, "Germany is on a dangerous path to war with Russia." RF IO will continue to push narratives of Western aggression to justify its own actions and create internal division in Western states. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Kotsnews posts a photo message with the caption, "How Europe will provoke a big war with Russia." This is consistent with RF IO to shift blame and portray Europe as bellicose. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts a photo message quoting Maria Zakharova stating Trump's main task is to "save America," and that his peace statements are "courageous." RF IO will continue to leverage positive statements about Trump to sow division among Western allies and promote a narrative of potential de-escalation under a different US administration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Новости Москвы reports Uniqlo may return to Russia. RF IO will use this to signal a breakdown in the international sanctions regime and a return to economic normalcy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: MoD Russia posts videos showing Putin touring a military-patriotic education center and an interactive zone dedicated to Major General Mikhail Gudkov (155th Naval Infantry Brigade). This IO aims to reinforce the narrative of patriotic education and military heroism to cultivate support for the ongoing conflict among the Russian populace, especially youth. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ТАСС posts a video of Putin interacting with female cadets, discussing parachuting. This is consistent with RF IO to promote military-patriotic education among youth. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts a historical newspaper clipping (1997) involving Donald Trump and Moscow, which RF IO will use to reinforce the narrative of long-standing, complex geopolitical interactions and to add historical depth to current political discourse. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники post about a conscript's struggle with military commissariat, which RF IO might leverage to demonstrate transparency in addressing internal issues or to provide a "safety valve" for public discontent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Два майора's FPV drone photo on fiber optics confirms RF's intent to target UAF communication infrastructure, and its IO emphasizes successful strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Два майора's military lawyer advertisement video reflects RF's intent to manage personnel issues, potentially offering an "out" for those dissatisfied with service, or to attract individuals from Ukraine by promising legal pathways to RF citizenship/service. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: AV БогомаZ posts about investment in Bryansk Oblast, an IO effort to project normalcy and economic development in border regions, countering narratives of war-related instability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ТАСС reports on Der Spiegel's article regarding "Coalition of the Willing" options, which RF IO will use to monitor and frame discussions on Western military intervention, likely to highlight divisions or potential escalations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Север.Реалии reports on Putin's niece's claim about prosthetics. This is an IO attempt to spin a negative war consequence into a positive narrative about scientific advancement and care for veterans. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Alex Parker Returns' commentary on NATO Article 5 and Indo-Pacific partners is an IO attempt to sow discord among Western allies and their partners, exploiting perceived limitations in mutual defense commitments. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's crowdfunding update reflects an intent to continuously mobilize public support and resources for RF military efforts, fostering a sense of collective national involvement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) amplifying Bloomberg's report on Europe's "security guarantees" for Ukraine is an IO move to monitor and frame Western support as a provocative action. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: ТАСС reports Putin opening the Pacific Railway. This is an IO effort to showcase national development, economic strength, and long-term strategic planning. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Новости Москвы reports on biometric age confirmation. This is an internal news item, but for IO, it can highlight technological advancement and a return to normalcy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
      • NEW: Сливочный каприз posts a graphic about "Railroad workers protest." If this pertains to Ukrainian railway workers, RF's intent would be to highlight internal discontent. If it pertains to RF workers, it could be a controlled narrative. Intent remains ambiguous. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - source ambiguous on target of protest)
      • NEW: Colonelcassad reports Energy Minister Tsivilev on gas supply to China. This is intended to highlight the deepening RF-China energy partnership, reinforcing the "pivot to the East" and showcasing economic resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

    • Immediate (0-12 hours):
      • Ground: Continued intense ground combat around Sieversk, Kupyansk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, Yanvarske, Pokrovsk, and Vovchansk. Urgent need to definitively assess RF penetration in Kupyansk and the extent of their claimed gains in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Immediate decisions on reinforcing threatened sectors, allocating fire support, and adapting counter-infiltration tactics against anti-thermal cloaks. Immediate BDA of the FAB-3000 strike on the UAF PVD to determine casualties and impact on operations. Immediate review of UAF General Staff RF loss figures for trend analysis and resource allocation implications. Confirm details of RF ground operations in the Pokrovsk direction from milblogger reports. Immediate verification of UAF mining on Karantynny Island and assessment of potential RF offensive in Kherson. Assess impact of "Shadow Unit" video. Monitor RF strike reporting on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Assess reports of RF advances and encirclements in Shcherbinovka. Continue monitoring RF FPV drone strikes near Sumy and drone strikes on UAF trench positions. Analyze WarGonzo's "Frontline summary" for immediate tactical insights. Assess new RF ground advances near Chervonaya Dibrova and Grigorievka. Analyze Zvиздец Мангусту's summary for RF intentions in Sieversk and Pokrovsk. Conduct BDA on the drone bombardment by the 38th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade in Zaporizhzhia. Assess the impact of the UAF drone artillery strike on RF vehicles. Analyze Colonelcassad's video of "First Tank Army" activity for immediate tactical insights. Assess the implications of the largest RF regrouping since 2022 for the Donetsk axis. Monitor for immediate signs of a new RF offensive as reported by Bloomberg. Conduct BDA for UAF aviation strike on building used by Russian drone operators. Assess 5 RF assaults repelled in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. Assess the direct tactical implications of the claimed neutralization of a Bradley IFV and ammunition depot by a Fagot ATGM. Assess the claims of RF assaults on Novoselivka. Immediately assess UAF reported losses on the Pokrovsk direction to understand the intensity of the fighting and RF pressure. Assess the claimed capture of a Ukrainian DRG in Bryansk Oblast for any tactical or intelligence implications. Verify the location and nature of the camouflaged enemy vehicle located by RF special forces west of Novoselivka. Immediately verify the RF claim of "liberation" of Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and assess current RF force disposition and strength in that area. Determine any direct threat to supply routes or critical infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Analyze the implications of RF tactics using anti-thermal cloaks as observed in the BŪTUSOV PLUS video. Immediately verify RF MoD claim of "liberation" of Novoselovka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and assess any new RF force dispositions. Analyze the claimed strike on a UAV command post in Kupyansk by Russian helicopter crews for immediate impact on UAF UAV operations. Assess the current situation and claimed changes in control in the Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka direction.
      • Air: Air defense threats for Odesa, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Sumy, Poltava, and Chuhuiv Raion have been neutralized. However, continuous monitoring is required for new launch windows and adaptive RF tactics for subsequent UAV waves, especially against Odesa. Immediate response to new RF UAV group in northern Sumy heading for Chernihiv Oblast. Continued monitoring for КАБ launches in Donetsk and Sumy, and now Kharkiv Oblast. Urgent BDA for claimed strikes on Khmelnytskyi, Lutsk, Kramatorsk, Kupyansk-Uzlovoy, the "Spetsoboronmash" plant, and the UAF UAV launch point for the 22nd Motorized Brigade. Monitor any further incidents at Volgograd airport. Monitor Sochi airport for any new restrictions. Assess the operational implications of the new "Rubikon" air defense combat groups and their drone types. Immediate response and tracking of new ballistic missile threats, high-speed target on Sumy, and КАБ launches on Zaporizhzhia, requiring rapid assessment of trajectory and potential impact points. Assess BDA from Odesa drone attack aftermath footage and determine any long-term impact. Analyze "Operation Z" EW video for new RF counter-drone tactics. Immediate BDA for the 46 Ukrainian UAVs claimed shot down by RF. Assess the ongoing threat to Kryvyi Rih given the "controlled" status. Immediate assessment of the significance of Rybar's "Eyes on Orbit" videos showing rocket/missile launches. Conduct BDA for the Odesa warehouse fire and damage in Sloviansk and other Odesa areas. Analyze Шеф Hayabusa's video for any discernible military activity or reconnaissance. Assess BDA for the RF strike on the boat in the Dnipro. Assess the implications of the "84 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed" report and the overall 112 UAV attack figure for UAF air defense capacity. Track the new RF UAV group in Chernihiv Oblast. Conduct BDA for "powerful strike on critical enemy infrastructure" in Odesa as claimed by Operation Z. Monitor RF milblogger claims of 50 Ukrainian drones shot down. Assess RF IO concerns about UAF ground-based cruise missiles. Conduct BDA for the reported destruction of an S-300V SAM system in Zaporizhzhia. Assess immediate impact of Russian strikes on Kharkiv Oblast civilian casualties. Track the new enemy UAV reported in the Black Sea near Odesa. Conduct BDA for the UAF MiG-29 bomb drop on occupier positions. Respond to the new ballistic missile threat from the south (Tuzly/Mykolaivka). Conduct BDA for claimed destruction of AFU positions, PVD, and communication antenna by 68th orb in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Conduct immediate BDA for the ZALA Lancet strike on UAF artillery in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and assess any loss of UAF fire support capability. Monitor for repeat ballistic missile launches on Tuzly and confirm negation. Assess the implications of UAF's claimed strike on RF radar complexes in Rostov, particularly the type and operational status of the targeted RLC-1 "Navigation South" radars. Conduct immediate BDA for new civilian casualties in Zaporizhzhia (4 wounded) and Orikhiv (2 wounded). Analyze new NATO ISR activity near RF's northwestern border, particularly Spanish Air Force activity, to assess its implications for regional security. Conduct immediate BDA for the reported UAF strike on six hovercraft in Crimea by "Flamingo" cruise missiles, including confirmation of one serviceman killed.
      • IO/Diplomatic: Preparation for the Trump-Zelenskyy-European leaders call. Immediate counter-IO against RF claims of Kupyansk control and any new ambiguous IO targeting Western audiences. Monitoring of RF internal IO for impact of Burning Man death. UAF MFA's strong response to Putin must be amplified. Immediate assessment of the implications of the RF military transport to North Korea and Kim Jong Un's public support for Moscow. Monitor RF IO regarding China's military parade and its implications for global power dynamics. Assess the impact of the US court ruling on Harvard grants on RF IO narratives. Analyze RF IO promoting family credit rates and humanitarian aid. Monitor RF IO regarding fuel market stability and Russian-Chinese LED screens, as well as the ongoing Eastern Economic Forum (EEF), including Sergey Tsivilev's and Alexander Pakhomov's interviews. Monitor Zakharova's briefing and any new announcements from the EEF, especially concerning Lavrov's upcoming strategic dialogue with the GCC. Assess the immediate impact of the military pension indexation on internal military morale. Counter Zakharova's new narratives on Ukraine's security guarantees and US missile sales. Monitor RF IO regarding Mironov's pension proposals, foreign currency sales, and energy sector development plans. Monitor LNR social object IO. Prepare a response to Slutsky's claims of Western "hysteria" over SCO. Monitor new RF internal security threat from scammers. Monitor new RF IO regarding educational loan forgiveness, Rosseti investments in DFO, Alexandrov Ensemble rehearsals, gold tokenization, Rosatom borrowing, and Minfin stance on cash. Analyze Zelenskyy's statement on territorial concessions. Counter Zakharova's statement on Von der Leyen's plane incident. Monitor GTLC Baikal aircraft contract. Monitor reporting on the mine collapse in Yakutia, for any potential IO exploitation. Monitor RF IO regarding the Kuban Ministry of Emergency Situations official's appeal. Assess the implications of the Mongolian PM's arrival at the EEF. Monitor Zakharova's statements regarding NATO's Namejs 2025 exercises for any shifts in RF IO strategy towards NATO. Immediately counter Maria Zakharova's accusations regarding the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, and analyze her statements on Azerbaijan and the OSCE Minsk Group for any shifts in RF diplomatic strategy. Monitor RF milblogger activity ("Two Majors," "Fighterbomber," "Paratrooper's Diary," "Operation Z," WarGonzo, Zvиздец Мангусту, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Kotsnews, Воин DV, Басурин о главном, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) for immediate IO narratives and tactical insights. Monitor RF IO related to humanitarian aid for troops (thermal monoculars, comms equipment) and the Epstein video. Analyze participants and schedule for the "Coalition of the Resolute" summit in Paris. Leverage the UK's $1 billion transfer from frozen RF assets for IO. Counter RF narratives from "Two Majors" on Zelenskyy and from TASS on Trump's peace stance. Prepare a counter to Sarkozy's "historical mistake" statement. Monitor RF IO on "Niva" and VAZ-2105. Counter Basurin's "unipolar world" narrative. Monitor TASS reporting on increased Russia-China flights, "Taliban" at EEF, and RF Olympics participation for IO implications. Counter Saldo's claims about Ukraine paying mercenaries. Monitor ASTRA's report on "Power of Siberia-2" and prepare for RF spin. Monitor Басурин о главном's video on railway sabotage for RF IO narratives. Assess RBC-Ukraine's reporting on Trump's parade observation. Counter Zakharova's statement on Trump's realization of US role in Ukraine. Amplify 46th Brigade's drone operator recruitment. Counter Basurin's Scott Ritter video. Analyze RBC-Ukraine's "Putin's youth army" report for IO. Assess Fighterbomber's jet video for IO. Monitor ASTRA's Tashkent diplomatic note report. Analyze TASS Chukotka salary report for IO. Counter Moscow News metro photo. Analyze Tsaplienko's Odesa damage video. Counter Operation Z's amplification of Trump's peace statement. Analyze Tsaplienko's RF oil refinery attack video for IO. Leverage Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's minute of silence video for morale. Counter Воин DV's drone bombardment video. Leverage General Staff and KMVA memorial posts for morale. Counter 47th Brigade's captured soldier video. Analyze DeepState's drone artillery video for IO. Counter Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's drone request video. Analyze RF IO regarding German Chancellor Merz and Taurus missiles. Monitor Putin's activities in Vladivostok. Monitor RF scammer warnings. Leverage Canada's oil price cap for IO. Counter Kotsnews' IO on "Strength of Siberia-2" and Macron. Counter RF narratives from TASS on Putin's visit to the 155th Marine Brigade museum. Counter the "Aviakhab" book IO. Monitor Север.Реалии's report on "Power of Siberia-2" non-confirmation and prepare for RF spin. Analyze Басурин о главном's business academy ad for IO. Counter Colonelcassad's "Course for extermination!" rhetoric. Counter STERNENKO's child abduction claims. Counter Kotsnews' exoskeleton video IO. Counter TASS Mironov's SIM card proposal. Counter Рыбарь's Moldova IO. Counter Два майора's crowdfunding call. Counter RF claims of SBU agent detention in Kherson. Analyze "Coalition of the Willing" disunity for UAF IO. Monitor EEF discussions on "technical stagnation" and ruble devaluation for potential counter-IO. Counter RF IO about popular radio performers. Leverage completion of Kyiv SIZO investigation to highlight rule of law in Ukraine. Counter Z-propagandist Kashevarova's claims about units with HIV/Hepatitis. Leverage Mykolaiv fresh water news for morale. Counter RF claims about Uniqlo trademarks. Analyze Putin's EEF address for new IO narratives. Counter Maria Zakharova's statements regarding Germany. Counter the "willing idiots" summit IO. Monitor Google/YouTube outages for any potential RF cyber activity or IO exploitation. Monitor RF diplomatic engagements with Afghanistan. Monitor RF milblogger IO regarding "Военкоры." Counter RF IO on sports diplomacy. Counter RF Deputy FM Galuzin's claims about Ukraine/EU lacking desire for peace and RF's willingness for dialogue in Istanbul. Counter Военкор Котенок's reporting on RF regrouping. Counter Rybar's "Nuclear Support Specialist Day" IO. Counter Операция Z's (Russkaya Vesna) IO on "Filimonov." Emphasize Macron's statement on completed security guarantees for Ukraine. Leverage TASS report on Germany's proposal for AD and mechanized brigades for Ukraine as positive Western support. Counter Medvedev's threat to seize British Crown valuables. Counter Colonelcassad's humanitarian aid IO by highlighting RF's aggression. Counter Basurin o Glavnom and Kotsnews' aggressive IO blaming Europe for war. Counter Alex Parker Returns' IO leveraging Trump's peace rhetoric. Counter Новости Москвы's Uniqlo return IO. Counter MoD Russia's IO on Putin's patriotic education tour. Analyze Putin's video interaction with cadets for IO implications. Counter Alex Parker Returns' historical Trump/Moscow IO. Monitor МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники on conscript's legal fight for IO opportunities. Counter Два майора's FPV drone/fiber optics IO. Counter Два майора's military lawyer advertisement IO. Monitor AV БогомаZ on Bryansk investment for RF IO. Counter TASS on "Coalition of the Willing" options. Counter Север.Реалии on Putin's niece/prosthetics IO. Counter Alex Parker Returns on NATO Article 5 and Indo-Pacific partners. Monitor Дневник Десантника🇷🇺's crowdfunding efforts for IO. Counter Операция Z's amplification of Bloomberg report on security guarantees. Counter ТАСС on Putin opening Pacific Railway for IO. Monitor Новости Москвы on biometric age confirmation for IO. Analyze Сливочный каприз's "Railroad workers protest" for IO. Counter Colonelcassad on RF-China gas deal for IO. Continue monitoring UAF official reports like ОТУ "Харків" for immediate situational awareness.
    • Short Term (12-48 hours):
      • Ground: RF will attempt to consolidate gains in contested areas. UAF will continue active defense, counter-attacks, and tactical adaptations. RF likely to pursue offensive in Kherson. RF will continue localized advances. The "largest regrouping" signals a major offensive in Donetsk, possibly initiating within this timeframe. Reports of a "new offensive" from Bloomberg reinforce this. UAF will continue to repel RF assaults in border regions. RF will likely press its assault on Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), seeking to gain a foothold in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF will continue to attempt to neutralize UAF armored vehicles and logistics through ATGM use. Expect continued RF counter-DRG operations in border oblasts. RF special forces will continue reconnaissance and target acquisition to support ground operations. Expect sustained RF ground pressure in Lyman direction. RF will seek to consolidate gains in Novoselovka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). RF will continue to attempt to seize further territory in the Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka direction.
      • Air: RF will likely continue high-volume drone and missile strikes against defense industry, logistics, and population centers, expanding reach to Poltava and northern Kharkiv, and with a renewed focus on Odesa. Expect sustained ballistic missile threats, high-speed targets, and КАБ launches against various regions, including Kharkiv Oblast and southern oblasts like Mykolaivka/Tuzly. Expect continued use of FAB-3000 against ground targets. RF will also continue targeted strikes on UAF riverine/naval assets. UAF will focus on air defense replenishment and integration of new systems. RF will continue to defend its airspace actively. Expect further large-scale, multi-directional drone attacks from RF, testing UAF air defense capabilities. UAF aviation may conduct additional strikes against RF drone operator locations. UAF will likely continue to target RF SAM systems in the Zaporizhzhia direction. RF will continue to target UAF C2 and fortified positions with long-range artillery. RF will likely continue precision strikes on UAF artillery in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast using Lancet drones. RF will likely continue drone reconnaissance and strikes in border regions (e.g., Bryansk) to counter UAF activity. RF will likely increase ISR and potential strikes near its northwestern border. Expect continued civilian casualties from RF drone/artillery strikes in Zaporizhzhia and Orikhiv. UAF will seek to exploit damage to RF hovercraft in Crimea.
      • IO/Diplomatic: Sustained counter-propaganda efforts. Diplomatic engagements by Zelenskyy and partners to secure further aid. Monitoring the broader implications of RF-China-DPRK alignment. Management of public sentiment regarding mobilization and internal debates. Anticipation of RF IO related to the "09 09 25" Apple graphic. Continue to monitor RF IO on the "frozen conflict" scenario and develop counter-narratives. Further analysis of RF economic policy statements for indicators of long-term economic strategy. Monitor for RF leveraging the upcoming GCC dialogue. Anticipate continued aggressive RF IO on Western aid to Ukraine and any notion of foreign military intervention. Counter new RF IO on educational loan forgiveness and domestic development. Monitor the fallout from the Amsterdam court ruling on Gazprom. Continue to monitor and counter Zakharova's narratives on Western "desperation" and "hybrid attacks". Monitor the development of the GTLC Baikal aircraft program. Assess the operational significance of the Mi-38 Arctic helicopters. Analyze the broader impact of Zakharova's statements on NATO exercises for regional stability. Continue to monitor RF IO regarding religious issues, Azerbaijan, and the Caucasus. Monitor the full scope of EEF messaging, including interviews. Assess the impact of UAF General Staff RF loss reports. Continue to monitor RF milblogger activity. Continue to leverage UK financial support for IO. Monitor Trump's evolving statements and their impact. Analyze how RF spins the "Power of Siberia-2" non-confirmation. Analyze the longer-term implications of RF youth militarization IO. Monitor for further diplomatic friction for RF as seen with Tashkent. Assess the implications of UAF attacks on RF oil refineries. Counter RF IO about German Chancellor Merz and Taurus missiles. Monitor Putin's Far East visit. Monitor for any RF IO exploitation of the Burning Man death. Continue to track RF internal digital hygiene campaigns. Counter Kotsnews' narrative on "Strength of Siberia-2" and Macron. Counter RF IO on military pilot's book. Monitor Russia-China "Power of Siberia-2" negotiations. Counter RF IO on SIM card regulations and migrant control. Continue to counter RF IO on Romania/Moldova relations. RF will amplify claims of successful SBU agent detention for internal security IO. RF will continue to push narratives of Western disunity regarding troop deployment to Ukraine. RF will attempt to downplay or counter reports of economic stagnation and ruble devaluation. Z-propagandist claims regarding HIV/Hepatitis units will likely be amplified by RF, and require a strong UAF response. RF will use Putin's EEF address to project strength and deflect criticism. RF IO will continue to aggressively target Germany through Maria Zakharova's statements. RF will continue diplomatic engagements with non-Western states, leveraging the EEF. RF milbloggers will remain a key channel for information and IO. RF will continue to project a willingness for dialogue while maintaining its maximalist demands. UAF will highlight Macron's statement on completed security guarantees for Ukraine. UAF will leverage Germany's new aid package. RF will escalate rhetoric regarding frozen assets. RF will continue to push narratives of Western provocation. RF will continue to leverage Trump's statements for IO. RF will continue to highlight domestic economic activity. RF will continue patriotic education narratives. RF will continue to use Putin's interactions with youth cadets for IO. RF will continue to frame current events through historical narratives (e.g., Trump/Moscow). RF will continue to use military legal services advertisements for IO. RF will continue to project economic development in border regions. RF will continue to monitor and frame discussions on Western military intervention. RF will continue to attempt to spin negative war consequences into positive narratives. RF will continue to sow discord among Western allies. RF will continue to promote public support for military efforts. RF will continue to frame Western support for Ukraine as provocative.
  • Medium Term (2-7 days):

    • Ground: RF will attempt to establish new defensive lines and prepare for follow-on offensives if initial gains are made. UAF will seek to stabilize lines and potentially launch localized counter-offensives. The development of the Kherson front will become a critical factor. The "decisive battle" for Donetsk will likely be fully underway, with RF attempting to secure significant territorial control.
    • Air: RF will likely adjust strike patterns and targets based on UAF air defense responses. UAF integration of new air defense assets becomes critical.
    • IO/Diplomatic: Continued diplomatic pressure for aid and sanctions. RF will seek to capitalize on any perceived Western fatigue or divisions. Ukrainian winter preparedness narratives will gain prominence.

6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

  1. ISR Priority for Kupyansk (CRITICAL), Donetsk Oblast (RF Regrouping/New Offensive - CRITICAL), Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts), Yanvarske, Pokrovsk Infiltration, KHERSION (Karantynny Island Mining/RF Offensive Prep), NEW UAV/MISSILE LAUNCH AREAS/TACTICS (Including Saturation Attacks, Rubikon Groups, UAV Launch Point Targeting, Northern Sumy to Chernihiv Route, Ballistic Missiles from NE/SOUTH, High-Speed Targets on Sumy, КАБ on Zaporizhzhia/Kharkiv Oblast, FAB-3000 Strikes, RF Cross-Border UAV Activity, Dnipro Riverine Operations, ZALA Lancet Strikes, Bryansk Border Region Activity, Repeat Ballistic Launches on Tuzly, RF Radar Strikes in Rostov, RF Helicopter Strikes on UAV C2), Anti-Thermal Cloaks, RF IO "09 09 25" Graphic, RF-DPRK Military Transport, RF Internal Security Incidents (Volgograd/Sochi, Scammers, Yakutia Mine, Burning Man Death, Bicycle Theft), RF-China Military IO (Including "Power of Siberia-2" Spin), RF-GCC Dialogue, and RF Internal Welfare/Economic IO (VTB Deposit Growth, Humanitarian Aid), NATO Exercises (Namejs 2025), RF IO on Religious/Caucasus Issues, RF EW Capabilities on Zaporizhzhia Front, RF Milblogger Activity (Including WarGonzo, Zvиздец Мангусту, Lyman Direction, Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka), Шеф Hayabusa Video, Trump's Peace Stance, Saldo's Corruption Claims, German Politics/Taurus Missiles, Putin's Vladivostok Activities, Aeroflot Airport Costs, Kotsnews/Macron IO, 155th Marine Brigade Museum, Aviakhab Book, SIM Card Regulations, Exoskeleton Tech, Romania/Moldova IO, RF ATGM Use, RF UAV Operator Training, RF Economic Stagnation/Ruble Devaluation, RF Units with HIV/Hepatitis, Mykolaiv Water Supply, Kyiv SIZO Investigation, RF DRG Operations in Bryansk, RF Special Forces Reconnaissance, Google/YouTube Outages, Janus Putkonen IO, RF Claims on Peace Desire, RF Nuclear Support Day IO, Filimonov IO, German Aid Package to Ukraine, Medvedev's Threats, Civilian Casualties in Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv, Uniqlo Return IO, RF Patriotic Education, NATO ISR (NW Borders), UAF Crimea Hovercraft Strike: **Immediately task all-source ISR to establish definitive ground truth on RF control and infiltration in Kupyansk, providing real-time intelligence for UAF counter-attacks and interdiction of reinforcements. CRITICAL PRIORITY: Intensify ISR on Donetsk Oblast to monitor the scale, composition, and axes of the "largest regrouping since 2022" and the reported "new offensive" by Russia. Prioritize identifying RF command and control nodes, logistical hubs, and troop concentrations to enable preemptive and disruptive strikes. Simultaneously, maintain high-priority ISR on Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), and Yanvarske to assess claimed RF advances and potential for deep penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Elevate ISR on the Pokrovsk axis to detect and interdict unconventional infiltration attempts and document civilian damage, particularly in the Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka direction. CRITICAL PRIORITY: Intensify ISR on the Kherson direction, specifically Karantynny Island and its approaches, to verify RF claims of UAF mining and assess any indications of imminent RF offensive operations, including potential amphibious landing zones or river crossing preparations. Prioritize tracking ALL new RF UAV/missile launch areas and adaptive tactics, especially any new waves targeting Odesa, and urgently track ballistic missile launches (northeast and south directions, including repeat launches on Tuzly), high-speed targets (Sumy), and КАБ launches (Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv Oblast) to determine intent and likely targets, and provide immediate BDA for confirmed strikes. Conduct urgent technical analysis and ISR on the newly identified "Rubikon" air defense combat groups, specifically identifying the operational roles of the Leleka-100, RQ-35 Heidrun, Vector, and VT-260 drones, to develop effective countermeasures. Conduct immediate BDA and assessment of the ЛМУР strike on the UAF UAV launch point for the 22nd Motorized Brigade, identifying the type of UAVs and equipment lost and any residual operational impact. Conduct immediate BDA for the FAB-3000 strike on the UAF PVD to determine casualties and damage. Actively monitor for RF use of anti-thermal imaging cloaks across all sectors, developing rapid detection and targeting solutions. Initiate immediate collection on the ambiguous "09 09 25" Apple logo graphic from Alex Parker Returns for any associated activity, to preemptively identify potential cyber or information operations targeting Western or Ukrainian interests. Conduct urgent and comprehensive ISR on the RF military transport to North Korea to identify cargo, personnel exchanges, and the nature of deepening military cooperation. Monitor and analyze any further RF internal security incidents, particularly those affecting airports (e.g., Volgograd, Sochi) and the reported increase in scammer activity (Nemkin), and the mine collapse in Yakutia, and the Simonenko appeal against dismissal, and bicycle theft in Khabarovsk Krai, and the Omks native killed at Burning Man for potential IO exploitation. Conduct deep analysis of RF IO on China's military parade and its links to Taiwan to understand the broader geopolitical narratives being pushed and their implications for the anti-Western axis, including the lack of confirmation for "Power of Siberia-2." Elevate collection on the upcoming RF-GCC strategic dialogue, particularly for any military cooperation or arms deals. Intensify monitoring of RF internal IO regarding military pensions (including Mironov's proposal for working pensioners and Slutsky's family credit rates), economic stability (CBRF key rate, Far East energy funding, foreign currency sales, all-Russia energy meeting, Rosenergoatom Primorye branch, low-carbon generation in Far East, energy cost monitoring, Rosseti investments in DFO, Rosatom borrowing for NPPs, gold tokenization, remote biometric sales, Minfin stance on cashless payments, VTB projected bank deposit growth, Aeroflot airport costs, MinEconomDev Reshetnikov's statements on cooling economy, Uniqlo return), and any cultural events (Alexandrov Ensemble rehearsals, Basurin's historical posts, Moscow "Open Water" festival, Putin with cadets) at the EEF to understand internal messaging and morale. Monitor RF IO concerning LNR social objects and the Khabarovsk governor's openness to ExxonMobil. Prioritize tracking the new RF UAV group from northern Sumy to Chernihiv Oblast, identifying its trajectory, potential targets, and any associated ground force movements. Monitor the GTLC Baikal aircraft contract for any military or dual-use implications. Monitor RF statements and ISR on NATO's Namejs 2025 exercises in Latvia for any indications of RF response, counter-activity, or propaganda aimed at NATO cohesion. Intensify collection on RF IO related to religious issues (Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra) and diplomatic maneuvering in the Caucasus (Azerbaijan, OSCE Minsk Group) to anticipate future narratives and potential hybrid actions. Prioritize collection on RF EW capabilities, specifically those highlighted on the Zaporizhzhia front, to identify systems, tactics, and their effectiveness against UAF drones. Actively monitor RF milblogger channels ("Two Majors," "Fighterbomber," "Paratrooper's Diary," "Operation Z," WarGonzo, Zvиздец Мангусту, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Kotsnews, Воин DV, Басурин о главном, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) for real-time tactical insights, confirmed engagements, and emerging IO narratives, paying close attention to reports from the Pokrovsk, Lyman and Dnepropetrovsk directions, as well as new RF ground advances near Chervonaya Dibrova and Grigorievka. Conduct BDA for the RF claim of 46 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions and the Black Sea, and assess any implications for UAF cross-border operations. Intensify ISR on Rybar's "Eyes on Orbit" rocket/missile launches to determine their nature (military/civilian/test) and potential strategic implications. Immediately verify reports of RF advances and encirclements in Shcherbinovka and their impact on UAF dispositions. Continue to monitor RF FPV drone strikes in the Sumy border region and their effectiveness against UAF vehicles. Prioritize BDA for the Odesa warehouse fire and damage in Sloviansk and other Odesa areas. Conduct immediate analysis of Шеф Hayabusa's video from Krasny Sulin, Rostov Oblast, for any indicators of military activity, air defense operations, or staging. Investigate the RF strike on the boat in the Dnipro for tactical implications and to identify the nature of the targeted vessel/personnel. Closely monitor Trump's statements on peace readiness and his relationships with Putin, Xi, and Kim, and Saldo's claims of Ukrainian corruption, and RF SVR claims about German politicians (Merz, Taurus), and Kotsnews' IO on "Strength of Siberia-2" and Macron, for their impact on the information environment. Immediately assess information from UAF's captured RF assault trooper for intelligence on RF unit dispositions, morale, and tactics. Conduct BDA on the drone bombardment by the 38th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade in Zaporizhzhia and the UAF drone artillery strike on RF vehicles. Analyze Colonelcassad's video of "First Tank Army" activity for immediate tactical insights. Assess the impact of UAF attacks on RF oil refineries in August. Monitor Putin's activities in Vladivostok. Conduct ISR on UAF aviation strikes against RF drone operator locations. Monitor RF claims of 50 Ukrainian drones shot down. Assess RF IO concerns about UAF ground-based cruise missiles. Monitor TASS reports on Putin visiting the 155th Marine Brigade museum and interactive zone. Analyze the content of Aviakhab's book by the military pilot for insights into RF military culture and morale. Monitor Госдума discussions on SIM card ownership. Assess RF IO use of the "Ant" exoskeleton video for technological projections. Monitor Рыбарь's geopolitical IO regarding Romania and Moldova. Collect details on the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment's crowdfunding efforts. Prioritize collection on RF ATGM deployments and effectiveness, particularly those claiming to neutralize Western-supplied IFVs. Intensify ISR on RF UAV operator training, noting unit affiliations and locations, to understand RF adaptation in drone warfare. Monitor RF internal economic reporting from EEF and TASS, specifically on "technical stagnation" and ruble weakening, to gauge internal vulnerabilities. Collect and analyze information on Z-propagandist Kashevarova's claims regarding the formation of units from military personnel with hepatitis and HIV, assessing its impact on RF public perception and international human rights concerns. Conduct immediate ISR on the claimed RF assault on Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Confirm UAF reported losses on the Pokrovsk direction. Conduct immediate ISR on RF DRG operations in Bryansk, including claimed capture and railway sabotage. Conduct ISR on RF special forces reconnaissance operations, particularly west of Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). Monitor Google/YouTube outages for any potential RF cyber activity or IO exploitation. Monitor RF diplomatic engagements with Afghanistan. Conduct detailed BDA on civilian casualties in Zaporizhzhia (4 wounded) and Orikhiv (2 wounded from utility vehicle attack) due to RF strikes. Monitor the implementation and impact of the German aid package for Ukraine (AD and four mechanized brigades). Monitor Medvedev's threats to seize British Crown valuables. Monitor RF IO regarding Uniqlo's potential return to Russia. Conduct ISR on RF's military-patriotic education initiatives, including Putin's tours of such centers. Monitor NATO ISR flights near Russia's northwestern borders (e.g., Spanish Air Force) for potential shifts in reconnaissance patterns. Conduct immediate BDA for the reported UAF strike on six hovercraft in Crimea by "Flamingo" cruise missiles. Prioritize ISR on the 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 29th Army, following their claimed role in Novoselivka. Collect intelligence from ОТУ "Харків" on the immediate situation in Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

  2. Aggressive Counter-Attacks and Reinforcements in Kupyansk (CRITICAL), Donetsk Oblast (RF Offensive - CRITICAL), Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts), Yanvarske, Enhance Counter-Infiltration Tactics, and Leverage All-Domain Assets - INCLUDING KHERSION DEFENSIVE MEASURES: **Immediately commit tactical reserves and robust fire support (artillery, HIMARS, BM-21 Grad counter-battery) to decisively counter RF advances in Kupyansk, Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts), and Yanvarske, with explicit orders to deny consolidation and disrupt westward movement. CRITICAL ACTION: Given the largest RF regrouping since 2022 and the reported new offensive, immediately reinforce UAF positions across Donetsk Oblast with all available resources. Implement deep defensive lines, prepare for large-scale counter-attacks, and prioritize interdicting RF advance routes with precision fires. Refine and disseminate TTPs for countering small-group infiltration (Pokrovsk) and specifically develop rapid counter-tactics against anti-thermal imaging cloaks, prioritizing protection for drone operators and mortar teams. Accelerate operational deployment of ground robotic complexes ("NC13"). Systematically target RF artillery (D-20, 2S3, 2S19 Msta-S, BM-21 Grad, 2S44 Giatsint-K), armored vehicles (BTR-82, Bradley IFV), UAV warehouses, UAV command posts (especially in Kupyansk), and fortifications using drone and precision artillery strikes. Prioritize the defense and hardening of UAV launch points. Provide all necessary support (ISR, fire, logistical) to UAF special forces in Sumy Oblast. Enhance counter-mobility operations to target RF engineering vehicles. Maintain intense pressure on RF elements in the Pokrovsk area, including the 506th Regiment and in the Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka direction. Review and adapt defensive measures against the use of heavy unguided aerial bombs (FAB-3000) against UAF PVDs and troop concentrations, considering dispersal and hardening of forward positions. CRITICAL ACTION: Given RF claims of UAF mining Karantynny Island, immediately enhance defensive preparations in Kherson, including counter-mobility obstacles, increased ISR coverage, and pre-positioned fire support, to thwart any potential RF offensive across the Dnipro or attempts to exploit perceived UAF defensive measures. Increase the use of drone-guided ordnance, as demonstrated by "Shadow Unit," to target RF positions. Conduct immediate counter-offensives or reinforcement operations in the Shcherbinovka area to break any RF encirclements and stabilize the front. Actively counter any new RF ground advances near Chervonaya Dibrova and Grigorievka. Implement enhanced riverine patrols and defensive measures on the Dnipro to counter RF operations against small watercraft. Intensify UAF drone training for counter-drone operations, detection, and camouflage. Leverage captured RF assault trooper for intelligence and IO against RF forces. Actively repel RF assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, as reported by UAF General Staff, to prevent new penetrations. Continue to strike enemy deployment locations, firing positions, and rear areas in Southern Ukraine, leveraging mortar and artillery fire. Continue to document and highlight alleged Russian child abduction and military indoctrination for international audiences. Focus on developing and deploying UAF ground-based cruise missiles to counter RF deep strike capabilities, if technically feasible, to address RF IO concerns. Prioritize the interdiction of RF ground assaults on Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) with all available indirect and direct fire assets to prevent a westward push into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Enhance anti-tank defenses and training in sectors facing RF ATGM threats. Continue to aggressively target and destroy RF SAM systems, as demonstrated by the destruction of the S-300V in Zaporizhzhia, to degrade RF air defense capabilities. Counter RF use of incendiary mixtures in LNR if confirmed. Enhance counter-DRG capabilities in border regions. Protect UAF forward operating bases (PVDs) and communication antennas from targeted RF strikes. Utilize UAF MiG-29s for targeted aerial strikes on confirmed occupier positions. Maintain robust defenses in the Lyman direction. Respond to and neutralize repeat ballistic missile launches on Tuzly. Continue UAF deep strike operations against RF radar complexes in Rostov, as likely occurred overnight, to degrade RF ISR and air defense. Maintain active defense and counter-battery fire in Kharkiv Oblast, as reported by ОТУ "Харків." Actively target and exploit damage to RF hovercraft in Crimea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

  3. Accelerate Air Defense Modernization, Munition Resupply, and EW (CRITICAL URGENCY), Counter-FPV/Advanced Drones, Protect Defense Industry and Educational Facilities, Strengthen Civilian Protection (CRITICAL URGENCY for Odesa - though threat neutralized, this remains high priority for future attacks) and Ballistic Missile Threats: Conduct immediate, comprehensive review of air defense dispositions, prioritizing systems for critical defense industry, railway/bridge infrastructure, and population centers across all affected oblasts. Despite the recent successful neutralization of UAV threats against Odesa and other regions, continue to prioritize reinforcement of air defense for Odesa and its critical port infrastructure, preparing for future waves of Shahed drones and adaptive RF tactics. **CRITICAL URGENCY: Immediately reassess air defense strategies and resources following the saturation attack of 112 UAVs and the 28 successful penetrations. Prioritize rapid deployment of additional AD assets, including newly secured systems, to fill gaps and enhance multi-layered defense against high-volume attacks. Intensify coordination for urgent replenishment of interceptors and fast-track establishment of new missile/drone/fuel production capabilities in Denmark. Prioritize training for new EW/SHORAD systems and rapid counter-measures for adapted RF drones, including those identified in the "Rubikon" air defense combat groups. Urgently develop and deploy counter-FPV drone capabilities and enhanced physical/air defense security for defense industry sites and educational facilities. Leverage successful UAF strikes on RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar for intelligence on RF air defense vulnerabilities. Dedicate significant air defense resources to track and neutralize the new RF UAV group detected in northern Sumy Oblast, targeting Chernihiv Oblast. Immediately activate all ballistic missile warning systems and deploy interceptor assets to counter the new ballistic missile threats from the northeast and south (Tuzly/Mykolaivka), and high-speed targets on Sumy. Enhance air defense coverage for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Kharkiv Oblast to counter КАБ launches. Develop rapid response protocols for FAB-3000 attacks on ground positions, including early warning and shelters. Urgently enhance UAF EW capabilities, especially on the Zaporizhzhia front, to counter and jam RF drones and prevent them from operating freely. Accelerate the development and deployment of counter-UAS platforms specifically designed to defeat RF EW-hardened drones. Maintain high vigilance and readiness for any renewed RF UAV activity over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, learning from the recent successful interceptions. Continue to monitor RF air defense actions against UAF cross-border UAVs to identify vulnerabilities or new RF defensive capabilities. Accelerate the hardening and dispersion of critical infrastructure in Odesa, particularly warehouses and port facilities, given the recent drone strike. Strengthen air defense against drone attacks in Kharkiv Oblast. Continue to develop and deploy offensive drone capabilities to strike RF oil refineries and other strategic targets. Actively conduct aviation strikes against RF drone operator locations, as demonstrated by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, to degrade RF UAV capabilities. Maintain high vigilance for incoming RF strike UAVs in Chernihiv and Kyiv Oblasts. Review and enhance counter-drone tactics based on RF claims of shooting down Ukrainian drones. Immediately conduct BDA on the destroyed S-300V SAM system in Zaporizhzhia to assess its impact on RF air defense and develop strategies to exploit this vulnerability. Prioritize air defense of civilian population centers in Kharkiv Oblast, given the recent fatal strikes. Maintain high vigilance for UAV activity in the Black Sea near Odesa. Ensure prompt and accurate public warnings for ballistic missile threats. Strengthen air defense in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast against Lancet drone attacks. Implement enhanced civilian protection measures in Zaporizhzhia city (4 wounded) and Orikhiv (2 wounded) in response to confirmed drone strikes and civilian casualties. Expedite the delivery and integration of Germany's proposed air defense enhancements for Ukraine. Develop immediate counter-measures against RF helicopter strikes on UAV command posts, particularly in Kupyansk, to protect critical C2 nodes. Intensify air defense measures in Crimea to counter "Flamingo" cruise missile threats and defend naval assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

  4. High-Priority Intelligence Collection on RF-China-DPRK Military Cooperation, China Trade Impact, RF Negotiation Stance, RF Internal Issues (Military Pilot Murder, Belgorod Information Control, Burning Man Death, Scammers, Civilian Infrastructure Updates, Domestic History Initiatives, Austrian Opposition, Volgograd/Sochi Airport Incidents, Economic Stability, Metering Device Policy, Social Welfare Proposals (including working pensioners, family credit rates, educational loan forgiveness), Humanitarian Aid Collections, Fuel Market Stability, Russian-Chinese LED Screens, EEF Activities (VTB deposit growth, Saldo claims, "Taliban" attendance, Olympics participation, Putin's interactive presentation, Reshetnikov's economic assessment, Overchuk's meeting with Afghan Ambassador, Degtyarev's sports diplomacy comments), Foreign Currency Sales, Energy Sector Development, LNR Social Objects, Gazprom Legal Actions, Yakutia Mine Collapse, GTLC Baikal Aircraft, Simonenko Appeal, Bicycle Theft), and Dehumanization Tactics (AND NATO ISR, Trump-Zelenskyy Call, RF IO Narratives, Gaza City Imagery, China Military Parade, Zakharova Statements, Slutsky SCO Comments, Alexandrov Ensemble Cultural Diplomacy, Mi-38 Helicopters, Namejs 2025, Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, Azerbaijan/OSCE Minsk Group, Sergey Tsivilev EEF Interview, RF Milblogger Content (WarGonzo, Zvиздец Мангусту, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Kotsnews, Воин DV, Басурин о главном, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Lyman Direction, Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka), Epstein Video, Humanitarian Aid for Troops, RF Air Defense Claims, "Power of Siberia-2" non-confirmation, RF Ground Advances (Chervonaya Dibrova, Grigorievka), Saldo's Corruption Claims, RF Riverine Operations, RF's Largest Regrouping/New Offensive, Merz/Taurus IO, Putin's Vladivostok Tour, Aeroflot Airport Costs, Kotsnews/Macron IO, 155th Marine Brigade Museum, Aviakhab Book, SIM Card Regulations, Exoskeleton Tech, Romania/Moldova IO, SBU Agent Detention, Germany-Poland Troop Movement, RF Economic Stagnation/Ruble Devaluation, RF Units with HIV/Hepatitis, Mykolaiv Water Supply, Kyiv SIZO Investigation, DRG Capture in Bryansk, RF Special Forces Reconnaissance, Google/YouTube Outages, Janus Putkonen IO, RF Claims on Peace Desire, RF Nuclear Support Day IO, Filimonov IO, German Aid Package to Ukraine, Medvedev's Threats, Civilian Casualties in Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv, Uniqlo Return IO, RF Patriotic Education, Detention Conditions of Ukrainians in Russia, Psychologists' Activities Bill, ОТУ "Харків" Reports): Immediately elevate collection requirements on RF-DPRK military cooperation and the impact of increased China-Russia trade. Collect and analyze RF statements regarding negotiation to understand shifts in strategic objectives. Monitor RF internal issues, including the Krasnodar military pilot murder, Belgorod information control measures, the Volgograd and Sochi airport restrictions, the reported increase in scammer activity, and potential exploitation of the Burning Man death, as well as the mine collapse in Yakutia, and the Simonenko appeal against dismissal, and bicycle theft in Khabarovsk Krai. Document and analyze RF dehumanization tactics. Conduct urgent, all-source collection on the Trump-Zelenskyy call agenda and messaging, including US Ambassador Monica Crowley's statement on Trump seeking "common ground" with RF. Analyze the role and rhetoric of the RF actor-volunteer Georgiy Teslya-Gerasimov. Monitor RF internal IO related to shortened hot water outages, the "Day of Domestic History" proposal, the Radiohead concert news, the new metering device verification policy, the new Duma proposal for family credit rates, the summer aid collection for Donbas children, Mironov's proposal for working pensioner indexation, educational loan forgiveness proposals, and LNR social object initiatives for broader IO objectives. Analyze RF IO leveraging the Austrian opposition leader's call for EU-RF cooperation. Analyze the use of Gaza City before/after imagery for its intended IO impact. Monitor RF IO regarding economic stability for its impact on public perception. Conduct deep analysis of RF IO on China's military parade and its links to Taiwan. Assess RF IO leveraging the US court ruling on Harvard grants. Monitor RF IO regarding the development of Russian-Chinese LED screens and the ongoing Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, including participant messaging (Putin's interactive presentation, Reshetnikov's economic assessment, Overchuk's meeting with Afghan Ambassador, Degtyarev's sports diplomacy comments), and the participation of the Mongolian Prime Minister. Place high priority on collecting and analyzing information regarding Lavrov's participation in the RF-GCC strategic dialogue. Continuously monitor RF official statements on military pension increases and broader economic policy. Analyze Slutsky's comments on Kallas and SCO. Monitor the Amsterdam court ruling against Gazprom. Monitor Zakharova's statements regarding Western "hybrid attacks" for insights into RF's counter-IO strategies. Collect information on the deployment of new Mi-38 Arctic helicopters. Monitor Maria Zakharova's statements regarding NATO's Namejs 2025 exercises. Prioritize collection on Maria Zakharova's statements concerning the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra and Ukrainian religious policy, as well as her comments on Azerbaijan's prisoner release and the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group. Intensify collection on RF milblogger content for granular details on combat operations, unit movements, and immediate IO responses. Monitor TASS reporting on the Epstein video for continued IO exploitation. Collect and analyze the full list and schedule of participants for the "Coalition of the Resolute" summit in Paris. Monitor RF IO related to the UK's transfer of frozen assets. Closely track and analyze Trump's public statements regarding Ukraine and RF. Monitor TASS amplification of Sarkozy's "historical mistake" statement and other similar narratives. Track any new information related to Rybar's "Eyes on Orbit" videos. Monitor ASTRA's report on China not confirming "Power of Siberia-2" and how RF counters this narrative. Analyze RF IO promoting militarization of Ukrainian children. Monitor for any further diplomatic friction for RF (Tashkent diplomatic note). Collect intelligence from UAF's captured RF assault trooper. Immediately prioritize collection on RF SVR claims regarding German Chancellor Merz and any alleged concealment of Taurus missile supplies to Ukraine. Monitor Putin's activities in Vladivostok, particularly interactions with military or industrial leaders. Closely track RF internal digital hygiene campaigns and any associated messaging. Analyze Kotsnews' IO on "Strength of Siberia-2" and the "fall of Macron" for its broader geopolitical messaging. Monitor TASS reports on Putin visiting the 155th Marine Brigade museum and interactive zone for IO implications. Conduct deeper analysis of "Aviakhab's" book to gauge its influence on military morale. Monitor Госдума discussions on SIM card ownership for potential internal security implications. Assess RF IO use of the "Ant" exoskeleton video for insights into technological priorities. Monitor Рыбарь's geopolitical IO regarding Romania and Moldova. Collect details on the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment's crowdfunding efforts. Collect detailed intelligence on the FSB's detention of an alleged SBU agent in Kherson, including methods of capture, alleged activities, and any intelligence obtained. Monitor RF IO regarding Germany's discussion of troop redeployment to Poland, specifically how it is framed to undermine NATO unity or justify RF actions. Intensify collection on all EEF reporting, particularly on any discussions of "technical stagnation" or ruble devaluation, to confirm and exploit RF economic vulnerabilities. Collect and analyze any further details or amplification of Z-propagandist Kashevarova's claims regarding the formation of units from military personnel with hepatitis and HIV, assessing its impact on RF public perception and international human rights concerns. Monitor any changes in Mykolaiv's water supply situation for civilian resilience indicators. Collect detailed information on the Kyiv SIZO investigation into the death of an inmate, looking for any broader implications for Ukrainian legal or security systems. Collect all-source intelligence on the claimed capture of a Ukrainian DRG in Bryansk Oblast, verifying details of the group, their mission, and any recovered equipment. Verify and assess the claimed sighting of a camouflaged enemy vehicle west of Novoselivka by RF special forces. Monitor reports of Google and YouTube outages for any potential RF cyber activity or IO exploitation. Monitor and analyze the content and reach of Janus Putkonen's IO. Collect and analyze RF statements regarding Ukraine and EU's alleged lack of desire for peace and RF's conditional readiness for dialogue in Istanbul. Monitor Rybar's "Nuclear Support Specialist Day" IO for insights into RF strategic messaging. Analyze Операция Z's (Russkaya Vesna) IO targeting "Filimonov." Collect details on Germany's proposal for strengthening Ukraine's air defense and providing equipment for four mechanized brigades. Monitor Medvedev's threats to seize "British Crown valuables" in response to asset transfer. Collect and analyze RF IO regarding humanitarian aid to soldiers and civilians. Collect and analyze RF IO blaming Europe for provoking war. Collect and analyze RF IO leveraging Trump's peace rhetoric. Monitor RF IO regarding Uniqlo's potential return to Russia. Collect details on detention conditions and deportation processes for Ukrainians in Russia, specifically the case near Smolensk. Monitor RF internal policy discussions on psychologists' activities. Monitor NATO ISR activity near RF's northwestern borders and any RF reactions. Collect details on the claimed RF helicopter strike on a UAV command post in Kupyansk. Prioritize collection on RF forces in the Pokrovskoye - Novoselovka direction. Analyze the significance of the RF-China gas deal. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

  5. Robust Counter-Propaganda and Strategic Communications (Kupyansk (CRITICAL)/Sieversk/Kamyshevakha/Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts)/Yanvarske, Donetsk Oblast (RF Offensive - CRITICAL), KHERSION (Karantynny Island), Civilian Casualties, Winter Narrative, RF-China-DPRK-Vietnam Alignment, Infrastructure Strikes, Internal Debates, Domestic Production, Ground Robotics, Putin's Statements, IPSO Army, Mobilization, Anti-Thermal Cloaks, RF IO "09 09 25" Graphic, UAF MFA Counter-Threats, Odesa Threat and Strikes, Frozen Conflict Narrative, Rubikon Drone Groups, RF Internal Economic/Tech IO, EEF Messaging, Zakharova Statements, Slutsky SCO Comments, Trump's Position, LNR Social Objects, Zelenskyy's Concessions Statement, Gazprom Ruling, Von der Leyen Plane Incident, GTLC Baikal Aircraft, Yakutia Mine, Mi-38 Helicopters, Namejs 2025, Simonenko Appeal, Religious Discord, Caucasus Diplomacy, FAB-3000 Strikes, RF EW Capabilities, RF Milblogger Content, Epstein Video, Humanitarian Aid for Troops, RF Air Defense Claims, "Power of Siberia-2" non-confirmation, RF Ground Advances (Chervonaya Dibrova, Grigorievka), Saldo's Corruption Claims, RF Riverine Operations, RF's Largest Regrouping/New Offensive, Merz/Taurus IO, Putin's Vladivostok Tour, Aeroflot Airport Costs, Kotsnews/Macron IO, 155th Marine Brigade Museum, Aviakhab Book, SIM Card Regulations, Exoskeleton Tech, Romania/Moldova IO, SBU Agent Detention, Germany-Poland Troop Movement, RF Economic Stagnation/Ruble Devaluation, RF Units with HIV/Hepatitis, Mykolaiv Water Supply, Kyiv SIZO Investigation, RF DRG Operations, RF Special Forces Reconnaissance, Google/YouTube Outages, Janus Putkonen IO, RF Claims on Peace Desire, RF Nuclear Support Day IO, Filimonov IO, German Aid Package to Ukraine, Medvedev's Threats, Civilian Casualties in Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv, Uniqlo Return IO, RF Patriotic Education, Detention Conditions of Ukrainians in Russia): Proactively disseminate verified information on RF attacks and high UAF interception rates. Immediately develop messaging to counter RF claims of gains in Kupyansk, Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts), Yanvarske, Chervonaya Dibrova, and Grigorievka, providing factual context and highlighting UAF resilience with visual evidence. **Develop a comprehensive strategic communications plan to address the impending major RF offensive in Donetsk Oblast. Emphasize UAF readiness, the brutality of the RF attack, and the urgent need for sustained international support. Leverage RF successes against UAF motorized units near Pokrovsk to highlight brutality and underscore need for support. Proactively counter RF "difficult winter" narratives by showcasing preparedness and international support. Highlight RF's reliance on rogue/neutral states (China, DPRK, Vietnam, "Taliban") and internal issues. Utilize BDA from defense industry, fuel, railway, and civilian strikes (Kostiantynivka, Nikopol, Kharkiv university, Chuhuiv community, Odesa/Fontanka, Sloviansk, Pokrovsk, UAF UAV launch point, Kharkiv Oblast, Zaporizhzhia (4 wounded), Orikhiv (2 wounded)) to highlight RF war crimes. Address internal debates transparently (mobilization, exit for men, discussions on a "frozen conflict" scenario). Counter Putin's statements on Zelenskyy's legitimacy and meeting conditions, emphasizing Ukrainian sovereignty. Pre-emptively counter GUR's warning about RF IPSO army. Actively leverage the upcoming Trump-Zelenskyy-European leaders call to project high-level Western support, and directly counter any RF attempts to frame Trump's position as seeking "common ground" with Russia against Ukrainian interests. Actively counter RF's use of anti-thermal imaging cloaks. Prepare comprehensive counter-IO for any new RF cyber or information operations indicated by the "09 09 25" Apple logo graphic. Leverage the destruction of RF S-300 and radar for IO. Amplify the UAF MFA's strong response to Putin's threats. Immediately disseminate public warnings and protective measures for Odesa regarding incoming drone threats, demonstrating responsible governance and civilian protection, and provide rapid updates on current strike impact. Develop clear messaging regarding discussions on a "frozen conflict" scenario, emphasizing that such decisions rest with the Ukrainian President and that reconstruction support would be vital, to counter RF attempts to leverage this for its own narrative. Publicly highlight and counter the operational capabilities of new RF drone groups, such as "Rubikon," to raise awareness and foster resilience. Develop counter-narratives to RF internal IO regarding economic stability (fuel market, LED screens, EEF (VTB deposit growth, Sergey Tsivilev's interview, Putin's presentation, Reshetnikov's economic assessment), military pension increases, Far East energy funding, foreign currency sales, energy sector development, LNR social objects, educational loan forgiveness, Rosseti investments, Rosatom borrowing, Minfin stance on cash, GTLC Baikal aircraft, increased Russia-China flight frequency, Olympics participation, Aeroflot airport costs, Uniqlo return) to prevent the perception of RF strength and normalcy. Proactively address any RF attempts to use Lavrov's GCC dialogue for anti-Ukrainian or anti-Western narratives. Aggressively counter Maria Zakharova's new narratives on Ukraine's security guarantees being a "danger" to Europe and US missile sales undermining peace talks. Also counter Slutsky's claims of Western "hysteria" over SCO results. Reiterate Ukraine's rejection of foreign military intervention. Amplify Zelenskyy's statement that territorial concessions will lead to war in Europe. Highlight the Amsterdam court ruling against Gazprom as a win for Ukraine. Develop immediate counter-IO to Zakharova's claims regarding Von der Leyen's plane incident, emphasizing Russian disinformation tactics. If necessary, provide factual updates on the Yakutia mine collapse without amplifying Russian narratives. Counter RF IO leveraging the Simonenko appeal. Actively counter RF IO related to new Mi-38 Arctic helicopters by highlighting their limited military utility in the current conflict. Counter Maria Zakharova's statements regarding NATO's Namejs 2025 exercises by emphasizing NATO's defensive posture and the transparency of its drills. Develop immediate counter-IO to Maria Zakharova's accusations regarding the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, highlighting religious freedom in Ukraine and exposing RF's attempts to sow discord. Counter RF narratives on Azerbaijan and the OSCE Minsk Group by emphasizing Ukraine's sovereignty and condemning RF interference in regional affairs. Document and publicize the indiscriminate nature and destructive power of FAB-3000 strikes. Directly counter RF claims of EW superiority, particularly on the Zaporizhzhia front, by highlighting UAF adaptations and continued drone effectiveness. Actively monitor and counter narratives propagated by RF milbloggers, providing factual and timely rebuttals to their claims of RF success or UAF setbacks, and countering propaganda related to humanitarian aid for troops. CRITICAL: Develop and disseminate clear messaging to counter RF claims of UAF mining Karantynny Island (Kherson), framing it as RF pre-emptive justification for aggression. Highlight the capabilities demonstrated by "Shadow Unit" and other UAF units, and the 46th Brigade's drone operator recruitment. Actively publicize the results and coordination of the "Coalition of the Resolute" summit in Paris. Counter RF claims of shooting down 46 Ukrainian UAVs by providing factual information on UAF drone operations and objectives. Actively leverage the UK's transfer of over $1 billion from frozen RF assets as a concrete example of international support for Ukraine and a consequence for RF aggression. Immediately issue counter-narratives to Trump's statements about peace readiness and his relationships with Putin, Xi, and Kim, emphasizing that only Ukraine can determine its path to peace. Counter Sarkozy's "historical mistake" statement by highlighting RF's ongoing aggression and war crimes. Counter RF light IO on car ratings. Counter Basurin's "unipolar world" narrative. Counter Saldo's claims of Ukrainian corruption with factual evidence of humanitarian aid and support for families. Highlight ASTRA's report on "Power of Siberia-2" as a sign of cracks in RF-China energy cooperation. Counter RF narratives related to riverine operations. Develop strong counter-narratives to RF's "Putin's youth army" IO, emphasizing child protection and international law. Leverage ASTRA's report on Tashkent's diplomatic note to highlight RF's diplomatic isolation and internal tensions. Amplify the importance of UAF drone training. Use UAF memorial posts to counter RF narratives of UAF weakness. Counter RF milblogger drone requests by highlighting UAF drone production and effectiveness. Counter RF SVR claims about German Chancellor Merz and alleged concealment of Taurus missile supplies by emphasizing Germany's transparency and sovereign decision-making. Leverage Canada's lowering of the Russian oil price cap for IO. Actively document and disseminate images of damage in Sloviansk and Odesa to counter RF narratives of precision strikes and to highlight civilian suffering. Counter Kotsnews' IO linking "Strength of Siberia-2" to Macron's "fall." Proactively address the implications of the overnight 112 UAV attack, emphasizing UAF resilience and the need for enhanced air defense. Counter RF IO on Putin's visit to the 155th Marine Brigade museum and the "Aviakhab" book to prevent glorification of RF military. Actively counter RF narratives surrounding SIM card regulations and migrant control, portraying them as repressive measures. Counter RF IO promoting military exoskeletons by highlighting their limited practical impact on the battlefield. Challenge Рыбарь's geopolitical IO regarding Romania and Moldova. Counter RF crowdfunding calls for military units by emphasizing international support for Ukraine. Immediately develop and disseminate counter-IO to RF claims of SBU agent detention in Kherson, framing it as a false flag or an attempt to suppress local resistance. Counter RF IO regarding Germany's discussion of troop redeployment to Poland by emphasizing NATO's defensive posture and collective security. Proactively address and counter RF narratives regarding "technical stagnation" and ruble devaluation, highlighting the resilience of Ukraine's economy and the impact of sanctions. Prepare robust counter-IO to Z-propagandist Kashevarova's claims regarding the formation of units from military personnel with hepatitis and HIV, emphasizing humanitarian law and condemning the dehumanization of soldiers. Leverage the news of Mykolaiv residents receiving fresh water for the first time since 2022 as a powerful narrative of Ukrainian resilience, reconstruction, and effective governance, contrasting it with RF's destructive actions. Highlight the completion of the Kyiv SIZO investigation as evidence of Ukraine's commitment to rule of law and transparency, contrasting it with RF's lack of accountability. Proactively counter RF claims of UAF use of incendiary mixtures in LNR. Publicize UAF losses on Pokrovsk to underscore the intensity of fighting and need for support. Counter RF IO claims of captured Ukrainian DRGs. Counter RF IO on "Filimonov" by The Times. Emphasize Macron's statement on completed security guarantees for Ukraine. Amplify news of Germany's proposed AD and mechanized brigade support for Ukraine, highlighting continued Western commitment. Counter Medvedev's threats to seize British Crown valuables with strong diplomatic responses. Counter RF IO on humanitarian aid by focusing on the broader context of aggression and civilian suffering. Counter RF narratives that blame Europe for provoking war. Counter Alex Parker Returns' IO leveraging Trump's peace rhetoric by emphasizing Ukraine's sovereign right to determine its peace terms. Counter Новости Москвы's IO on Uniqlo's potential return by highlighting ongoing sanctions and economic pressure. Expose RF's military-patriotic education programs as indoctrination of youth, particularly the Putin tour of the Gudkov center. Counter RF IO on Putin's interactions with youth cadets, highlighting the militarization of children. Counter Alex Parker Returns' historical Trump/Moscow IO by providing factual context and emphasizing Ukraine's contemporary struggle. Counter RF IO related to conscripts' legal struggles by highlighting UAF's commitment to transparent legal processes. Counter Два майора's FPV drone/fiber optics IO by emphasizing UAF's resilient communication networks. Counter Два майора's military lawyer advertisement IO by highlighting the sacrifices of UAF defenders. Proactively counter any RF IO related to NATO ISR flights near RF borders, framing it as defensive monitoring. Actively promote and disseminate information from ОТУ "Харків" on the situation in Kharkiv Oblast to maintain transparency and counter RF narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

  6. Enhanced Border Security and Security for Mass Gatherings: Conduct immediate review of border security protocols to prevent illegal crossings and manage mobilization challenges. Implement heightened security for the Rosh Hashanah pilgrimage in Uman. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

Previous (2025-09-04 08:36:20Z)

We only use optional analytics cookies if you allow them. Necessary cookies stay on for sign-in and site security.

Learn more in our Privacy Policy.