Archived operational intelligence briefing
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: RF deep strikes continue to target Ukraine's defense industry and railway infrastructure. Civilian targeting remains high, with confirmed deadly artillery/FPV drone strikes on Kostiantynivka and sustained attacks on the Nikopol region and Kharkiv Oblast. Ballistic missile threats are active. Ground operations are intensely focused on Sieversk and Kupyansk. RF continues to claim significant gains and even UAF surrenders in Kupyansk, while UAF actively denies these claims and demonstrates successful counter-actions. DeepState (UAF source) confirms RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk, though UAF maintains RF lacks "firm control" over the city center. RF claims new assaults on Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), supported by UAV footage of targeted positions and personnel. RF also claims to have neutralized a Bradley IFV and a field ammunition depot with a Fagot ATGM, and to have detained an SBU agent in Kherson Oblast engaged in espionage. UAF reports the destruction of an S-300V SAM system in the Zaporizhzhia direction. UAF demonstrates tactical innovation with ground robotic complexes, secures additional air defense from Nordic/Baltic countries, and maintains significant domestic artillery/drone production. Diplomatic and information warfare efforts continue, with UAF securing further Western support and RF attempting to sow discord and amplify anti-Western narratives. Putin concluded his China visit, making several statements regarding Ukraine, NATO, and economic cooperation with China, projecting a dual message of "peace" vs. "military solution." RF is actively conducting artillery strikes in the Kharkiv direction, with confirmed casualties. NATO ISR aircraft activity is reported near Kaliningrad/Belarus border, indicating heightened regional vigilance. European leaders, including Zelenskyy and Macron, are scheduled for a call with Trump, highlighting continued high-level diplomatic engagement. RF IO is heavily pushing narratives of Ukrainian corruption. New RF drone group activity in Chernihiv region, southwestern direction. UAF has successfully downed a "Gerbera with a rear-view camera" drone. UAF successfully destroyed RF D-20 artillery and a 2S3 self-propelled howitzer with drone strikes. New Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast. UAF special forces (Shybenyk Squad, 2nd Assault Company, Kraken) are conducting operations in Sumy Oblast. RF continues to use BM-21 Grad MLRS. Ukraine launches its largest port investment project, indicating economic resilience and long-term planning. Ukrainian forces report Russians are using anti-thermal imaging cloaks for infiltration tactics. RF IO emphasizes Putin's conditional willingness to meet Zelenskyy in Moscow, contrasting with Zelenskyy's statements on Ukraine's "Korean Scenario" and the need for US security guarantees. RF IO also focuses on internal control in Belgorod concerning UAV attack information. UAF claims significant destruction of RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reports a power outage in Krasnodar Krai due to a UAV strike. RF IO is leveraging discussion of a "frozen conflict" for Ukraine. RF IO is pushing a narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. RF drones originating from Donetsk Oblast are now reported on course for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF sources continue to claim significant advances in Kupyansk, with UAF sources also confirming RF infiltration and presence, albeit noting a lack of "firm control" over the city center, and indicating fragmented UAF defense. RF UAV group detected in Southern Sumy Oblast, moving west. RF UAVs on course for Poltava Oblast. Several groups of RF UAVs detected in northern Kharkiv Oblast (Chuhuiv Raion). RF military transport aircraft confirmed arriving in North Korea, with coffins draped in North Korean flags visible, suggesting potential military assistance or return of personnel. Explosion heard in Chuhuiv community, Kharkiv Oblast. RF reports five Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Rostov Oblast. New groups of RF UAVs are inbound from the Black Sea towards Odesa/Fontanka. The air raid alert for Odesa and Chornomorsk has been lifted following successful UAF interception of all incoming Shahed UAVs. The Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) continues in Vladivostok. RF is actively promoting a rise in military pensions and a continued increase in the 2026 budget, signaling long-term commitment to military personnel welfare. RF is also discussing financing for new energy generation in the Far East. RF IO is now actively countering claims of Western support for Ukraine, with Maria Zakharova stating that Ukraine's security guarantees are "guarantees of danger" for Europe. Colonelcassad reports a FAB-3000 strike on a UAF Forward Operating Base (FOB). Russian milbloggers "Two Majors" and "Parisan56rus" are providing footage from the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction. Russian milblogger "Operation Z" (via Russkaya Vesna) released a video on "Electronic Warfare (EW) strike" on the Zaporizhzhia front. UAF General Staff provides updated estimated RF combat losses. UAF reports two UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF sources claim UAF forces are mining houses on Karantynny Island (Kherson). RF Ministry of Defense claims 46 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions and the Black Sea. UK has directed over $1 billion from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. Aftermath of drone attack on Odesa: fire in a warehouse, no casualties. Trump states that Putin and Zelenskyy are not yet ready for a peace agreement. RF Ministry of Defense reports an additional four UAVs shot down over Volgograd Oblast. Colonelcassad posts drone footage of high-precision strikes on UAF trench positions by operators of the 5th Army Group "Vostok." Rybar provides a map-based analysis video of RF offensive operations in the Shcherbinovka area (between August 12-31, 2025). TASS reports RF military advances near Chervonaya Dibrova (LNR) and control of 5 hectares of forest near Grigorievka (DNR). Zvиздец Мангусту provides a brief summary from various directions and considerations regarding events on the Dobropillya direction, specifically mentioning the Sieversk (Slavyansk) direction and potential regrouping for the Pokrovsk assault. ASTRA reports China has not confirmed Putin's statements about "Power of Siberia-2." Operatsiya Z (Russkaya Vesna) reports RF air defense shot down 46 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. Два майора posts a video (18+) with "18th Combined Arms Army" insignia, showing an aerial strike on a small boat with personnel in water. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of enemy UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving southwest. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video claiming that drones attacked 17 Russian oil refineries in August. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posts a photo message stating "84 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed." ASTRA reports that Ukraine's Air Force states Russia attacked with 112 UAVs overnight, and UAF neutralized 84 of them. Шеф Hayabusa posts photos of damage in Sloviansk and Odesa after night attacks. RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia is preparing a new offensive against Ukraine, citing Bloomberg. UAF General Staff reports repelling 5 RF army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction.
NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports RF losses on the Pokrovsk direction of between 150-200 casualties over a period of time, with the direction remaining the hottest part of the front. Another report states 60,000 "rashists" lost on the Pokrovsk direction over 10 months. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source)
NEW: ТАСС reports Putin familiarized himself with an interactive presentation on the development of the Far East and received reports on work done, at the EEF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photo messages showing UAF personnel engaged in direct fire with a large caliber weapon, with a caption "We must be ready for anything. Firing at targets with a large caliber weapon with direct aiming." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF is again using incendiary mixtures to set fires in LNR. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF milblogger claim)
NEW: Colonelcassad posts a video claiming the recent capture of a Ukrainian DRG (sabotage and reconnaissance group) in Bryansk Oblast. The group's task was reportedly to commit terrorist acts on railway network facilities in the oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim with video evidence)
NEW: ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova stated at the EEF that "Russia once saved Germany. Now the German people must awaken and save themselves; the situation in the country is comparable to a pulled self-destruction pin." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Kotsnews posts "Merz threatens revenge," likely referring to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: STERNENKO posts a video claiming a group from the 3rd Special Operations Forces Regiment "POPRYVSSE" destroyed and then set fire to an enemy Mavic drone operator's shelter in the Pokrovsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Воин DV posts a video claiming scouts from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade located a camouflaged enemy vehicle in the forests west of Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), with drone footage showing smoke. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: РБК-Україна reports Macron stated that the preparation of security guarantees for Ukraine is complete. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Fighterbomber posts a comment critical of historical narratives regarding the Red Army. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV in the Black Sea waters near Odesa Oblast, with means engaged for shooting it down, and advises seeking shelter if an alarm is announced. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov stated at the EEF that the Russian economy is cooling faster than expected. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) posts a photo message implying a summit of "willing idiots" today discussing "Ukraine's guarantees." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO/anti-Western source)
NEW: Север.Реалии reports users experienced Google and YouTube outages in various countries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Deputy Prime Minister Overchuk met with Afghanistan's Ambassador to Moscow Gul Hassan after an EEF session. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Kotsnews post photo messages with the caption "Военкоры" (milbloggers), featuring portraits of two men. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Degtyarev, at the EEF session "Sports Diplomacy: New Challenges and Opportunities," stated that dozens of football (soccer) executives have changed their rhetoric on changing the limit for foreign players in the country's championship. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video from the cockpit of a Ukrainian MiG-29 during a bomb drop on occupier positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС posts a video showing Putin with a delegation, including military personnel, observing urban development plans. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated that the Russian Federation observes that Ukraine and the EU currently lack the desire to seek peaceful resolutions to the crisis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues an "ATTENTION" alert. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Народная милиция ДНР posts a video claiming the destruction of AFU positions, PVD (forward operating base), and a communication antenna by forces of the 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (orb) in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim with video evidence)
NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for "Threat of ballistic weaponry from the south." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Moscow is ready to continue dialogue with Kyiv in Istanbul and is open to considering raising the level of delegations, according to Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Военкор Котенок reports Western resources are pushing the narrative that the RF Armed Forces are conducting their largest regrouping in three years. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF milblogger on Western reporting)
NEW: Рыбарь posts a photo message celebrating "Nuclear Support Specialist Day," featuring a stylized graphic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Николаевский Ванёк reports "ballistics on Tuzly/Mykolaivka !!!" and "working with adjustment near Tuzly." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: STERNENKO reports "Ballistic threat from the south!" (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: MoD Russia posts a video claiming a crew of 2S44 Giatsint-K self-propelled artillery systems of the 8th Combined Arms Army (Tsentr Group of Forces) obliterated a concealed UAV command post and strongholds of the AFU in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim with video evidence)
NEW: Басурин о главном posts a video showing young contract soldiers learning first aid and evacuation techniques. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Новости Москвы posts a video promoting the "Open Water" festival in Krylatskoye, Moscow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Операция Z (via Russkaya Vesna) posts a photo message with "British circus: how The Times sculpts an 'unkillable hero' out of Filimonov," an IO piece against a Ukrainian figure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
Air/Missile Assets: Actively employing long-range precision air-launched weapons (КАБ on Donetsk and Sumy, new КАБ launches towards Zaporizhzhia, and now Kharkiv Oblast), attack UAVs (Lancet on UAF radar, FPV drones on checkpoint, FPV drone strike on vehicle near Sumy border), tactical aviation (southeast and northeast directions), and conducting drone strikes (Kharkiv direction, Nikopol region, Kharkiv city). Reports strikes on UAF UAV/artillery electronics in Khmelnytskyi. Claims of strikes on "Motor" aircraft repair plant in Lutsk and "Donmashstroy" in Kramatorsk. Artillery (Msta-S, BM-21 Grad MLRS) actively employed in Kharkiv direction. Claims of strike on UAF UAV operator location in Kupyansk-Uzlovoy. RF animated strike scheme details alleged widespread drone strikes across multiple regions. Claims of Kalibr/Geran strikes on "Spetsoboronmash" plant near Kyiv Oblast border. UAV group in Chernihiv region moving southwest. Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast (including Pokrovsky district, Belozerske/Dobropillya). UAV group from Kharkiv to Donetsk Oblast. UAV group from Donetsk to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAV group in Southern Sumy Oblast, moving west. RF UAVs on course for Poltava Oblast. Several groups of RF UAVs detected in northern Kharkiv Oblast (Chuhuiv Raion). Reports a power outage in Krasnodar Krai due to a UAV strike. Groups of RF UAVs inbound from the Black Sea towards Odesa/Fontanka (approx. 14 Shaheds) were successfully intercepted. RF claims five Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Rostov Oblast. "Rubikon" air defense combat groups operating various drones (Leleka-100, RQ-35 Heidrun, Vector, VT-260) over Ukrainian fields. New claim of a successful ЛМУР strike on a UAF UAV launch point for the 22nd Motorized Brigade. A new RF UAV group is currently active in northern Sumy Oblast, heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. Ballistic missile threat from the northeast. High-speed target detected on Sumy. UAF Air Force reports КАБ launches towards Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Colonelcassad reports a FAB-3000 strike on a UAF PVD (Forward Operating Base). "Operation Z" video highlights RF Electronic Warfare (EW) capabilities against UAF drones, likely to protect ground forces, specifically on the Zaporizhzhia front. RF Ministry of Defense claims 46 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions and the Black Sea.
NEW: Rybar's "Eyes on Orbit" videos show at least two distinct multi-stage rocket/missile launches at night from coastal/urban areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: The additional four UAVs shot down over Volgograd Oblast demonstrate RF's active air defense capability against perceived UAF cross-border threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) claims RF air defense shot down 46 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim)
NEW: Два майора posts a video showing an aerial strike on a small boat with personnel, likely on the Dnipro River, attributed to the "18th Combined Arms Army." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a new group of enemy UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving southwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Воин DV (RF milblogger) posts a video of drone bombardment by the 38th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, 35th Army, "Vostok" Group, targeting enemy personnel concentrations in the Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ASTRA reports that Ukraine's Air Force states Russia attacked with 112 UAVs overnight, meaning that 28 UAVs were not neutralized by UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) reports Russian aviation inflicted a powerful strike on critical enemy infrastructure, with multiple videos showing nighttime explosions and fires in Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Colonelcassad posts a video of a BM-21 "Grad" MLRS crew. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for Chernihiv Oblast regarding enemy strike UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorod district) regarding enemy strike UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Военкор Котенок claims 50 Ukrainian aircraft-type drones were shot down overnight by air defense. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF milblogger claim)
NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a photo message asking "Is Ukraine creating a ground-based cruise missile?", reflecting RF intelligence/IO concern. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: MoD Russia releases video claiming a Fagot ATGM of the Zapad Group of Forces neutralized a Bradley IFV, a field ammunition depot, and AFU manpower. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Mash на Донбассе posts a video claiming the Russian army began assaulting Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, showing UAV footage of strikes on a damaged building and surrounding area with military personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV in the Black Sea waters near Odesa Oblast, with means engaged for shooting it down. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: MoD Russia posts a video claiming a crew of 2S44 Giatsint-K self-propelled artillery systems of the 8th Combined Arms Army (Tsentr Group of Forces) obliterated a concealed UAV command post and strongholds of the AFU in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, supported by aerial footage of a damaged settlement and explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Ground Forces: Strong offensive focus on Sieversk. Asserting control of "about half" of Kupyansk, directly contradicted by UAF but also met with UAF counter-action against flag-planting assault groups. DeepState is now confirming RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk, though UAF still denies firm control of the city center, only small group infiltration. Reports of RF successfully destroying UAF motorized units near Pokrovsk with casualties. Claims liberation of Kamyshevakha and full control of Yanvarske. Persistent attempts at infiltration (Pokrovsk axis). Engages fortified positions. Putin claims all RF groupings are successfully advancing. Conducted deadly artillery/FPV drone strikes on Kostiantynivka. RF forces are employing anti-thermal imaging cloaks to facilitate covert infiltration. RF utilizes drones for surveillance and targeting. RF engineering vehicle (likely AVLB) destroyed by UAF forces, though RF attempts to misattribute it to UAF losses for IO. RF 506th Regiment "Otvazhnye" reportedly engaged in combat around Pokrovsk. RF "Russkaya Vesna" is showcasing large-scale social object creation in Luhansk People's Republic (LNR). FAB-3000 strike on a UAF PVD (Forward Operating Base). "Two Majors" video ("No obstacles for the Guard!") shows aerial combat footage. "Two Majors" and "Partizan56rus" are posting from the Pokrovsk direction. Vladimir Saldo claims UAF are mining houses on Karantynny Island (Kherson).
NEW: "Operation Z" video of an FPV drone strike on a vehicle in the border area, claiming to support an advance on Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Colonelcassad drone footage of high-precision strikes by 5th Army Group "Vostok" operators on UAF trench positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Rybar's map-based analysis of the Shcherbinovka area (August 12-31, 2025) details RF advances and encirclements of UAF positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: TASS reports RF military advances near Chervonaya Dibrova (LNR) and control of 5 hectares of forest near Grigorievka (DNR), citing military expert Marochko. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF source)
NEW: WarGonzo's "Frontline summary for the morning of 04.09.25" with multiple photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Zvиздец Мангусту's summary indicates continued focus on the Sieversk (Slavyansk) direction and provides insight into RF's planning for the Pokrovsk assault. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - milblogger source)
NEW: Colonelcassad posts a video claiming "First Tank Army" destroyed an enemy pickup and combatant. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that RF forces have carried out their largest regrouping since the 2022 Kyiv battles, amassing a large number of forces for a "final, decisive battle" for the rest of Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia is preparing a new offensive against Ukraine, citing Bloomberg. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: UAF General Staff reports repelling 5 RF army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message about the "Konstantinovsky direction." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Воин DV posts a video showing "harsh hits on enemy manpower trying to escape, but unsuccessfully," depicting drone footage of strikes on fortified positions and personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Kotsnews posts a video showcasing the "Ant" exoskeleton vest designed to reduce fatigue and enhance mobility for soldiers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Два майора posts a video urging "Let's activate! Over the past day, 669 people participated in the collection for assault troops of the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Два майора posts video of UAV operator training from the Konstantinovsky direction, specifically naming the 33rd Motorized Rifle Berlin-Don Cossack Regiment, 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: MoD Russia releases video claiming a Fagot ATGM of the Zapad Group of Forces neutralized a Bradley IFV, a field ammunition depot, and AFU manpower. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Mash на Донбассе posts a video claiming the Russian army began assaulting Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF is again using incendiary mixtures to set fires in LNR. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Colonelcassad posts a video showing the alleged capture of a Ukrainian DRG in Bryansk Oblast, whose task was railway sabotage. This indicates RF counter-sabotage operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Воин DV posts a video claiming scouts from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade located a camouflaged enemy vehicle in the forests west of Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). This confirms RF reconnaissance efforts in the area of claimed assault. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
C2/Intelligence: Coordinated deep strike and ground operations continue. RF IO is highly active, consolidating anti-Western narratives, promoting RF resilience and diplomatic influence, while also addressing internal security issues. Actively training personnel with FPV drones. Publicly crowdfunding for drones. Putin's press conference was a major IO event. RF IO is now actively deflecting Trump's "conspiracy" claims and using highly derogatory language against Zelenskyy. Trump's planned call with Putin is being amplified, though later clarified by UAF sources as a call with Zelenskyy, but US Ambassador Monica Crowley now states Trump wants to find common ground with RF in various spheres during talks with Putin. RF IO is promoting communistic social policies, celebrating infrastructure in Bryansk region, and promoting industrial self-sufficiency. RF is utilizing nationalistic cultural events for morale. RF IO is propagating conspiracy theories about opposition deaths in Germany. RF is also leveraging historical narratives to assert influence over European capitals. RF IO continues to push narratives about UK sanctions being cynical and deflect accusations of child abduction. RF IO is also using conspiracy theories (Epstein) to undermine Western institutions. RF IO is leveraging UAF statements on "frozen conflict" for Ukraine. RF IO is pushing a narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. RF IO is using light-hearted content, and providing daily news summaries. RF IO using a photo of Putin at a Chinese-style building to project diplomatic success. RF IO claims Kupyansk was "subsidized" and a reminder of a "totalitarian regime." RF IO also mocks Zelenskyy's actions. RF actor-volunteer interview reinforces morale. RF IO uses an ambiguous graphic with Apple logo and date "09 09 25", potentially hinting at future IO or cyber activity aimed at the West. The death of a Russian citizen at Burning Man has potential for IO exploitation. RF IO also includes civilian cultural news to project normalcy. Volgograd airport, previously under restrictions, has lifted them. Sochi airport restrictions were also implemented, then lifted. Gaza City before/after video is RF IO. RF IO highlights economic stability. RF IO is actively promoting China's military parade and linking it to Taiwan's fears. RF IO is leveraging the US court ruling on Harvard grants. The EEF is a major platform for RF IO to project economic and diplomatic strength. The strategic dialogue with the GCC is an example of RF's capability to expand diplomatic influence. The focus on military pension indexation and future budget increases for pensioners of "power structures" is a key internal IO effort. Discussions at the EEF on securing funding for Far East energy generation highlight RF's focus on internal economic development. RF IO is now actively countering claims of Western support for Ukraine, with Maria Zakharova stating that Ukraine's security guarantees are "guarantees of danger" for Europe, and that US missile sales contradict settlement talks. RF is also reinforcing internal messaging on pension indexation for working pensioners. RF is openly discussing potential revisions to foreign currency revenue sales for exporters. RF is promoting its energy sector development, including plans for an all-Russia energy meeting and the creation of a Primorye branch of Rosenergoatom. RF is using narratives about the SCO summit causing "hysteria" in the West. New RF internal security threats from scammers are being reported. New proposals regarding educational loan forgiveness for strategic sectors and Rosseti investments in the Far East show internal economic focus. The Amsterdam court denying Gazprom's appeal is a legal setback for RF, but the Khabarovsk governor's openness to ExxonMobil indicates long-term economic strategy. Rosatom's plan to attract borrowed funds for NPPs from 2028 and the Minfin's stance against abandoning cash also indicate long-term economic planning. Gold tokenization is a new technological/economic initiative. The rehearsal footage of the Alexandrov Ensemble for a China trip highlights cultural diplomacy. Maria Zakharova is actively refuting Western reports of a "hybrid attack" on Ursula von der Leyen's plane. The GTLC contract for 50 "Baikal" aircraft for "Aerokhimflot" signals continued internal development of civil aviation. The mine collapse in Yakutia is a localized industrial incident. TASS reports that a former deputy head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations in Kuban, Simonenko, is appealing his dismissal. The Mongolian Prime Minister's arrival at the EEF further expands RF's diplomatic outreach. TASS also reports the Ministry of Emergency Situations will receive nine new Arctic Mi-38 helicopters by the end of the year. Maria Zakharova, at the EEF, stated Russia is closely monitoring NATO's "Namejs 2025" exercises in Latvia. Maria Zakharova, at the EEF, commented on the Ukrainian Ministry of Culture's actions at the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra. Her statements on Azerbaijan and the OSCE Minsk Group confirm an intent to project Russian diplomatic influence. Sergey Tsivilev's interview at the EEF provides a platform for RF to project economic strength. "Fighterbomber" (RF milblogger) posts a generic "Good morning, country!" image. "Paratrooper's Diary" (RF milblogger) provides a general summary. VTB Deputy Chairman Alexander Pakhomov announced at the EEF that Russian bank deposits are expected to grow by 17% in 2025. RF sources ("Operation Z" via Russkaya Vesna) are showcasing humanitarian aid to troops. TASS continuing to report on the "missing minute" from the Epstein video. Basurin o Glavnom (RF milblogger) posts "DAYinHISTORY."
NEW: TASS reports FSB detained a 35-year-old SBU agent in Kherson Oblast for espionage against RF military units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) reports Germany is discussing troop redeployment to Poland, citing NYT. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Север.Реалии reports statements at the EEF on "technical stagnation" and a decline comparable to the 1990s crisis in Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: TASS reports factors strengthening the ruble at the beginning of the year are no longer working. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: TASS reports Dima Bilan, Zivert, and Mari Kraimbreri as most popular radio performers in Russia over summer. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: TASS reports the "Coalition of the Willing" participants cannot agree on troop deployment in Ukraine, citing FT, and that the coalition is divided into three parts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Новости Москвы reports a "Motobezopasnost" raid in Moscow from Sep 5-7. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ASTRA reports Z-propagandist Kashevarova claimed the formation of units from military personnel with hepatitis and HIV, who will be issued distinctive armbands. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: TASS reports Uniqlo holding applied for 10 trademarks with Rospatent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Военкор Котенок posts videos and images related to volunteer efforts ("Dobryy Slon" foundation) to support lonely elderly people in Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: TASS reports tour operators have not received mass complaints from Russians in Turkey about a "strange virus" on beaches. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Putin familiarized himself with an interactive presentation on the development of the Far East and received reports on work done. This is a clear IO effort to project competent governance and economic development. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova stated at the EEF that "Russia once saved Germany. Now the German people must awaken and save themselves; the situation in the country is comparable to a pulled self-destruction pin." This is aggressive, revisionist IO aimed at dividing NATO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Kotsnews posts "Merz threatens revenge," an RF milblogger comment framing German political discourse. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Fighterbomber posts a comment critical of historical narratives regarding the Red Army. This indicates internal RF discourse on military history and identity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov stated at the EEF that the Russian economy is cooling faster than expected. This is a rare, open admission of economic difficulty at a major forum, likely for internal messaging to manage expectations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) posts a photo message implying a summit of "willing idiots" today discussing "Ukraine's guarantees." This is RF-aligned anti-Western IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Север.Реалии reports users experienced Google and YouTube outages in various countries. This is a technical issue but could be exploited for IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Deputy Prime Minister Overchuk met with Afghanistan's Ambassador to Moscow Gul Hassan after an EEF session. This highlights RF's diplomatic outreach to non-Western states, including the Taliban regime. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Kotsnews post photo messages with the caption "Военкоры" (milbloggers), featuring portraits of two men. This is IO to promote and humanize RF milbloggers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Degtyarev, at the EEF session "Sports Diplomacy: New Challenges and Opportunities," stated that dozens of football (soccer) executives have changed their rhetoric on changing the limit for foreign players in the country's championship. This is RF IO projecting influence in international sports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС posts a video showing Putin with a delegation, including military personnel, observing urban development plans. This IO portrays Putin as focused on development and projects civil-military cooperation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated that the Russian Federation observes that Ukraine and the EU currently lack the desire to seek peaceful resolutions to the crisis. This is classic RF IO to shift blame for the ongoing conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Moscow is ready to continue dialogue with Kyiv in Istanbul and is open to considering raising the level of delegations, according to Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin. This is an RF IO attempt to project reasonableness and a willingness to negotiate, while controlling the terms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Военкор Котенок reports Western resources are pushing the narrative that the RF Armed Forces are conducting their largest regrouping in three years. This is an RF milblogger acknowledging and framing Western intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Рыбарь posts a photo message celebrating "Nuclear Support Specialist Day," featuring a stylized graphic. This is IO to boost morale and project strength in the nuclear domain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Басурин о главном posts a video showing young contract soldiers learning first aid and evacuation techniques. This is IO to project professionalism and care for personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Новости Москвы posts a video promoting the "Open Water" festival in Krylatskoye, Moscow. This is civilian IO to project normalcy and deflect from military conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Операция Z (via Russkaya Vesna) posts a photo message with "British circus: how The Times sculpts an 'unkillable hero' out of Filimonov," an IO piece against a Ukrainian figure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Colonelcassad posts a video depicting the alleged capture of a Ukrainian DRG in Bryansk Oblast, whose task was railway sabotage. This IO aims to project RF internal security effectiveness and frame Ukraine as engaging in "terrorism." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UAF:
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
Intentions:
Courses of Action (COAs):
Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:
Medium Term (2-7 days):
ISR Priority for Kupyansk (CRITICAL), Donetsk Oblast (RF Regrouping/New Offensive - CRITICAL), Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka/Yanvarske, Pokrovsk Infiltration, KHERSION (Karantynny Island Mining/RF Offensive Prep), NEW UAV/MISSILE LAUNCH AREAS/TACTICS (Including Saturation Attacks, Rubikon Groups, UAV Launch Point Targeting, Northern Sumy to Chernihiv Route, Ballistic Missiles from NE/SOUTH, High-Speed Targets on Sumy, КАБ on Zaporizhzhia/Kharkiv Oblast, FAB-3000 Strikes, RF Cross-Border UAV Activity, Dnipro Riverine Operations), Anti-Thermal Cloaks, RF IO "09 09 25" Graphic, RF-DPRK Military Transport, RF Internal Security Incidents (Volgograd/Sochi, Scammers, Yakutia Mine, Burning Man Death, Bicycle Theft), RF-China Military IO (Including "Power of Siberia-2" Spin), RF-GCC Dialogue, and RF Internal Welfare/Economic IO (VTB Deposit Growth, Humanitarian Aid), NATO Exercises (Namejs 2025), RF IO on Religious/Caucasus Issues, RF EW Capabilities on Zaporizhzhia Front, RF Milblogger Activity (Including WarGonzo, Zvиздец Мангусту), RF Ground Advances (Chervonaya Dibrova, Grigorievka), Шеф Hayabusa Video, Trump's Peace Stance, Saldo's Corruption Claims, German Politics/Taurus Missiles, Putin's Vladivostok Activities, Aeroflot Airport Costs, Kotsnews/Macron IO, 155th Marine Brigade Museum, Aviakhab Book, SIM Card Regulations, Exoskeleton Tech, Romania/Moldova IO, RF ATGM Use, RF UAV Operator Training, RF Economic Stagnation/Ruble Devaluation, RF Units with HIV/Hepatitis, Mykolaiv Water Supply, Kyiv SIZO Investigation, RF DRG Operations in Bryansk, RF Special Forces Reconnaissance: **Immediately task all-source ISR to establish definitive ground truth on RF control and infiltration in Kupyansk, providing real-time intelligence for UAF counter-attacks and interdiction of reinforcements. CRITICAL PRIORITY: Intensify ISR on Donetsk Oblast to monitor the scale, composition, and axes of the "largest regrouping since 2022" and the reported "new offensive" by Russia. Prioritize identifying RF command and control nodes, logistical hubs, and troop concentrations to enable preemptive and disruptive strikes. Simultaneously, maintain high-priority ISR on Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, and Yanvarske to assess claimed RF advances and potential for deep penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Elevate ISR on the Pokrovsk axis to detect and interdict unconventional infiltration attempts and document civilian damage. CRITICAL PRIORITY: Intensify ISR on the Kherson direction, specifically Karantynny Island and its approaches, to verify RF claims of UAF mining and assess any indications of imminent RF offensive operations, including potential amphibious landing zones or river crossing preparations. Prioritize tracking ALL new RF UAV/missile launch areas and adaptive tactics, especially any new waves targeting Odesa, and urgently track ballistic missile launches (northeast and south directions), high-speed targets (Sumy), and КАБ launches (Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv Oblast) to determine intent and likely targets, and provide immediate BDA for confirmed strikes. Conduct urgent technical analysis and ISR on the newly identified "Rubikon" air defense combat groups, specifically identifying the operational roles of the Leleka-100, RQ-35 Heidrun, Vector, and VT-260 drones, to develop effective countermeasures. Conduct immediate BDA and assessment of the ЛМУР strike on the UAF UAV launch point for the 22nd Motorized Brigade, identifying the type of UAVs and equipment lost and any residual operational impact. Conduct immediate BDA for the FAB-3000 strike on the UAF PVD to determine casualties and damage. Actively monitor for RF use of anti-thermal imaging cloaks across all sectors, developing rapid detection and targeting solutions. Initiate immediate collection on the ambiguous "09 09 25" Apple logo graphic from Alex Parker Returns for any associated activity, to preemptively identify potential cyber or information operations targeting Western or Ukrainian interests. Conduct urgent and comprehensive ISR on the RF military transport to North Korea to identify cargo, personnel exchanges, and the nature of deepening military cooperation. Monitor and analyze any further RF internal security incidents, particularly those affecting airports (e.g., Volgograd, Sochi) and the reported increase in scammer activity (Nemkin), and the mine collapse in Yakutia, and the Simonenko appeal against dismissal, and bicycle theft in Khabarovsk Krai, and the Omks native killed at Burning Man for potential IO exploitation. Conduct deep analysis of RF IO on China's military parade and its links to Taiwan to understand the broader geopolitical narratives being pushed and their implications for the anti-Western axis, including the lack of confirmation for "Power of Siberia-2." Elevate collection on the upcoming RF-GCC strategic dialogue, particularly for any military cooperation or arms deals. Intensify monitoring of RF internal IO regarding military pensions (including Mironov's proposal for working pensioners and Slutsky's family credit rates), economic stability (CBRF key rate, Far East energy funding, foreign currency sales, all-Russia energy meeting, Rosenergoatom Primorye branch, low-carbon generation in Far East, energy cost monitoring, Rosseti investments in DFO, Rosatom borrowing for NPPs, gold tokenization, remote biometric sales, Minfin stance on cashless payments, VTB projected bank deposit growth, Aeroflot airport costs, MinEconomDev Reshetnikov's statements on cooling economy), and any cultural events (Alexandrov Ensemble rehearsals, Basurin's historical posts, Moscow "Open Water" festival) at the EEF to understand internal messaging and morale. Monitor RF IO concerning LNR social objects and the Khabarovsk governor's openness to ExxonMobil. Prioritize tracking the new RF UAV group from northern Sumy to Chernihiv Oblast, identifying its trajectory, potential targets, and any associated ground force movements. Monitor the GTLC Baikal aircraft contract for any military or dual-use implications. Monitor RF statements and ISR on NATO's Namejs 2025 exercises in Latvia for any indications of RF response, counter-activity, or propaganda aimed at NATO cohesion. Intensify collection on RF IO related to religious issues (Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra) and diplomatic maneuvering in the Caucasus (Azerbaijan, OSCE Minsk Group) to anticipate future narratives and potential hybrid actions. Prioritize collection on RF EW capabilities, specifically those highlighted on the Zaporizhzhia front, to identify systems, tactics, and their effectiveness against UAF drones. Actively monitor RF milblogger channels ("Two Majors," "Fighterbomber," "Paratrooper's Diary," "Operation Z," WarGonzo, Zvиздец Мангусту, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Kotsnews, Воин DV, Басурин о главном, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) for real-time tactical insights, confirmed engagements, and emerging IO narratives, paying close attention to reports from the Pokrovsk and Dnepropetrovsk directions, as well as new RF ground advances near Chervonaya Dibrova and Grigorievka. Conduct BDA for the RF claim of 46 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions and the Black Sea, and assess any implications for UAF cross-border operations. Intensify ISR on Rybar's "Eyes on Orbit" rocket/missile launches to determine their nature (military/civilian/test) and potential strategic implications. Immediately verify reports of RF advances and encirclements in Shcherbinovka and their impact on UAF dispositions. Continue to monitor RF FPV drone strikes in the Sumy border region and their effectiveness against UAF vehicles. Prioritize BDA for the Odesa warehouse fire and damage in Sloviansk and other Odesa areas. Conduct immediate analysis of Шеф Hayabusa's video from Krasny Sulin, Rostov Oblast, for any indicators of military activity, air defense operations, or staging. Investigate the RF strike on the boat in the Dnipro for tactical implications and to identify the nature of the targeted vessel/personnel. Closely monitor Trump's statements on peace readiness and his relationships with Putin, Xi, and Kim, and Saldo's claims of Ukrainian corruption, and RF SVR claims about German politicians (Merz, Taurus), and Kotsnews' IO on "Strength of Siberia-2" and Macron, for their impact on the information environment. Immediately assess information from UAF's captured RF assault trooper for intelligence on RF unit dispositions, morale, and tactics. Conduct BDA on the drone bombardment by the 38th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade in Zaporizhzhia and the UAF drone artillery strike on RF vehicles. Analyze Colonelcassad's video of "First Tank Army" activity for immediate tactical insights. Assess the impact of UAF attacks on RF oil refineries in August. Monitor Putin's activities in Vladivostok. Conduct ISR on UAF aviation strikes against RF drone operator locations. Monitor RF claims of 50 Ukrainian drones shot down. Assess RF IO concerns about UAF ground-based cruise missiles. Monitor TASS reports on Putin visiting the 155th Marine Brigade museum and interactive zone. Analyze the content of Aviakhab's book by the military pilot for insights into RF military culture and morale. Monitor Госдума discussions on SIM card ownership. Assess RF IO use of the "Ant" exoskeleton video for technological projections. Monitor Рыбарь's geopolitical IO regarding Romania and Moldova. Collect details on the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment's crowdfunding efforts. Prioritize collection on RF ATGM deployments and effectiveness, particularly those claiming to neutralize Western-supplied IFVs. Intensify ISR on RF UAV operator training, noting unit affiliations and locations, to understand RF adaptation in drone warfare. Monitor RF internal economic reporting from EEF and TASS, specifically on "technical stagnation" and ruble weakening, to gauge internal vulnerabilities. Collect and analyze information on Z-propagandist Kashevarova's claims regarding the formation of units from military personnel with hepatitis and HIV, assessing its impact on RF public perception and international human rights concerns. Conduct immediate ISR on the claimed RF assault on Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Confirm UAF reported losses on the Pokrovsk direction. Conduct immediate ISR on RF DRG operations in Bryansk, including claimed capture and railway sabotage. Conduct ISR on RF special forces reconnaissance operations, particularly west of Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). Monitor Google/YouTube outages for any potential RF cyber activity or IO exploitation. Monitor RF diplomatic engagements with Afghanistan. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Aggressive Counter-Attacks and Reinforcements in Kupyansk (CRITICAL), Donetsk Oblast (RF Offensive - CRITICAL), Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka/Yanvarske, Enhance Counter-Infiltration Tactics, and Leverage All-Domain Assets - INCLUDING KHERSION DEFENSIVE MEASURES: **Immediately commit tactical reserves and robust fire support (artillery, HIMARS, BM-21 Grad counter-battery) to decisively counter RF advances in Kupyansk, Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, and Yanvarske, with explicit orders to deny consolidation and disrupt westward movement. CRITICAL ACTION: Given the largest RF regrouping since 2022 and the reported new offensive, immediately reinforce UAF positions across Donetsk Oblast with all available resources. Implement deep defensive lines, prepare for large-scale counter-attacks, and prioritize interdicting RF advance routes with precision fires. Refine and disseminate TTPs for countering small-group infiltration (Pokrovsk) and specifically develop rapid counter-tactics against anti-thermal imaging cloaks, prioritizing protection for drone operators and mortar teams. Accelerate operational deployment of ground robotic complexes ("NC13"). Systematically target RF artillery (D-20, 2S3, 2S19 Msta-S, BM-21 Grad, 2S44 Giatsint-K), armored vehicles (BTR-82, Bradley IFV), UAV warehouses, UAV command posts, and fortifications using drone and precision artillery strikes. Prioritize the defense and hardening of UAV launch points. Provide all necessary support (ISR, fire, logistical) to UAF special forces in Sumy Oblast. Enhance counter-mobility operations to target RF engineering vehicles. Maintain intense pressure on RF elements in the Pokrovsk area, including the 506th Regiment. Review and adapt defensive measures against the use of heavy unguided aerial bombs (FAB-3000) against UAF PVDs and troop concentrations, considering dispersal and hardening of forward positions. CRITICAL ACTION: Given RF claims of UAF mining Karantynny Island, immediately enhance defensive preparations in Kherson, including counter-mobility obstacles, increased ISR coverage, and pre-positioned fire support, to thwart any potential RF offensive across the Dnipro or attempts to exploit perceived UAF defensive measures. Increase the use of drone-guided ordnance, as demonstrated by "Shadow Unit," to target RF positions. Conduct immediate counter-offensives or reinforcement operations in the Shcherbinovka area to break any RF encirclements and stabilize the front. Actively counter any new RF ground advances near Chervonaya Dibrova and Grigorievka. Implement enhanced riverine patrols and defensive measures on the Dnipro to counter RF operations against small watercraft. Intensify UAF drone training for counter-drone operations, detection, and camouflage. Leverage captured RF assault trooper for intelligence and IO against RF forces. Actively repel RF assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, as reported by UAF General Staff, to prevent new penetrations. Continue to strike enemy deployment locations, firing positions, and rear areas in Southern Ukraine, leveraging mortar and artillery fire. Continue to document and highlight alleged Russian child abduction and military indoctrination for international audiences. Focus on developing and deploying UAF ground-based cruise missiles to counter RF deep strike capabilities, if technically feasible, to address RF IO concerns. Prioritize the interdiction of RF ground assaults on Novoselivka with all available indirect and direct fire assets to prevent a westward push into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Enhance anti-tank defenses and training in sectors facing RF ATGM threats. Continue to aggressively target and destroy RF SAM systems, as demonstrated by the destruction of the S-300V in Zaporizhzhia, to degrade RF air defense capabilities. Counter RF use of incendiary mixtures in LNR if confirmed. Enhance counter-DRG capabilities in border regions. Protect UAF forward operating bases (PVDs) and communication antennas from targeted RF strikes. Utilize UAF MiG-29s for targeted aerial strikes on confirmed occupier positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Accelerate Air Defense Modernization, Munition Resupply, and EW (CRITICAL URGENCY), Counter-FPV/Advanced Drones, Protect Defense Industry and Educational Facilities, Strengthen Civilian Protection (CRITICAL URGENCY for Odesa - though threat neutralized, this remains high priority for future attacks) and Ballistic Missile Threats: Conduct immediate, comprehensive review of air defense dispositions, prioritizing systems for critical defense industry, railway/bridge infrastructure, and population centers across all affected oblasts. Despite the recent successful neutralization of UAV threats against Odesa and other regions, continue to prioritize reinforcement of air defense for Odesa and its critical port infrastructure, preparing for future waves of Shahed drones and adaptive RF tactics. **CRITICAL URGENCY: Immediately reassess air defense strategies and resources following the saturation attack of 112 UAVs and the 28 successful penetrations. Prioritize rapid deployment of additional AD assets, including newly secured systems, to fill gaps and enhance multi-layered defense against high-volume attacks. Intensify coordination for urgent replenishment of interceptors and fast-track establishment of new missile/drone/fuel production capabilities in Denmark. Prioritize training for new EW/SHORAD systems and rapid counter-measures for adapted RF drones, including those identified in the "Rubikon" air defense combat groups. Urgently develop and deploy counter-FPV drone capabilities and enhanced physical/air defense security for defense industry sites and educational facilities. Leverage successful UAF strikes on RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar for intelligence on RF air defense vulnerabilities. Dedicate significant air defense resources to track and neutralize the new RF UAV group detected in northern Sumy Oblast, targeting Chernihiv Oblast. Immediately activate all ballistic missile warning systems and deploy interceptor assets to counter the new ballistic missile threats from the northeast and south (Tuzly/Mykolaivka), and high-speed targets on Sumy. Enhance air defense coverage for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Kharkiv Oblast to counter КАБ launches. Develop rapid response protocols for FAB-3000 attacks on ground positions, including early warning and shelters. Urgently enhance UAF EW capabilities, especially on the Zaporizhzhia front, to counter and jam RF drones and prevent them from operating freely. Accelerate the development and deployment of counter-UAS platforms specifically designed to defeat RF EW-hardened drones. Maintain high vigilance and readiness for any renewed RF UAV activity over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, learning from the recent successful interceptions. Continue to monitor RF air defense actions against UAF cross-border UAVs to identify vulnerabilities or new RF defensive capabilities. Accelerate the hardening and dispersion of critical infrastructure in Odesa, particularly warehouses and port facilities, given the recent drone strike. Strengthen air defense against drone attacks in Kharkiv Oblast. Continue to develop and deploy offensive drone capabilities to strike RF oil refineries and other strategic targets. Actively conduct aviation strikes against RF drone operator locations, as demonstrated by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, to degrade RF UAV capabilities. Maintain high vigilance for incoming RF strike UAVs in Chernihiv and Kyiv Oblasts. Review and enhance counter-drone tactics based on RF claims of shooting down Ukrainian drones. Immediately conduct BDA on the destroyed S-300V SAM system in Zaporizhzhia to assess its impact on RF air defense and develop strategies to exploit this vulnerability. Prioritize air defense of civilian population centers in Kharkiv Oblast, given the recent fatal strikes. Maintain high vigilance for UAV activity in the Black Sea near Odesa. Ensure prompt and accurate public warnings for ballistic missile threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
High-Priority Intelligence Collection on RF-China-DPRK Military Cooperation, China Trade Impact, RF Negotiation Stance, RF Internal Issues (Military Pilot Murder, Belgorod Information Control, Burning Man Death, Scammers, Civilian Infrastructure Updates, Domestic History Initiatives, Austrian Opposition, Volgograd/Sochi Airport Incidents, Economic Stability, Metering Device Policy, Social Welfare Proposals (including working pensioners, family credit rates, educational loan forgiveness), Humanitarian Aid Collections, Fuel Market Stability, Russian-Chinese LED Screens, EEF Activities (VTB deposit growth, Saldo claims, "Taliban" attendance, Olympics participation, Putin's interactive presentation, Reshetnikov's economic assessment, Overchuk's meeting with Afghan Ambassador, Degtyarev's sports diplomacy comments), Foreign Currency Sales, Energy Sector Development, LNR Social Objects, Gazprom Legal Actions, Yakutia Mine Collapse, GTLC Baikal Aircraft, Simonenko Appeal, Bicycle Theft), and Dehumanization Tactics (AND NATO ISR, Trump-Zelenskyy Call, RF IO Narratives, Gaza City Imagery, China Military Parade, Zakharova Statements, Slutsky SCO Comments, Alexandrov Ensemble Cultural Diplomacy, Mi-38 Helicopters, Namejs 2025, Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, Azerbaijan/OSCE Minsk Group, Sergey Tsivilev EEF Interview, RF Milblogger Content (WarGonzo, Zvиздец Мангусту, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Kotsnews, Воин DV, Басурин о главном, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺), Epstein Video, Humanitarian Aid for Troops, RF Air Defense Claims, "Power of Siberia-2" non-confirmation, RF Ground Advances (Chervonaya Dibrova, Grigorievka), Saldo's Corruption Claims, RF Riverine Operations, RF's Largest Regrouping/New Offensive, Merz/Taurus IO, Putin's Vladivostok Tour, Aeroflot Airport Costs, Kotsnews/Macron IO, 155th Marine Brigade Museum, Aviakhab Book, SIM Card Regulations, Exoskeleton Tech, Romania/Moldova IO, SBU Agent Detention, Germany-Poland Troop Movement, RF Economic Stagnation/Ruble Devaluation, RF Units with HIV/Hepatitis, Mykolaiv Water Supply, Kyiv SIZO Investigation, DRG Capture in Bryansk, RF Special Forces Reconnaissance, Google/YouTube Outages, Janus Putkonen IO, RF Claims on Peace Desire, RF Nuclear Support Day IO, Filimonov IO): Immediately elevate collection requirements on RF-DPRK military cooperation and the impact of increased China-Russia trade. Collect and analyze RF statements regarding negotiation to understand shifts in strategic objectives. Monitor RF internal issues, including the Krasnodar military pilot murder, Belgorod information control measures, the Volgograd and Sochi airport restrictions, the reported increase in scammer activity, and potential exploitation of the Burning Man death, as well as the mine collapse in Yakutia, and the Simonenko appeal against dismissal, and bicycle theft in Khabarovsk Krai. Document and analyze RF dehumanization tactics. Conduct urgent, all-source collection on the Trump-Zelenskyy call agenda and messaging, including US Ambassador Monica Crowley's statement on Trump seeking "common ground" with RF. Analyze the role and rhetoric of the RF actor-volunteer Georgiy Teslya-Gerasimov. Monitor RF internal IO related to shortened hot water outages, the "Day of Domestic History" proposal, the Radiohead concert news, the new metering device verification policy, the new Duma proposal for family credit rates, the summer aid collection for Donbas children, Mironov's proposal for working pensioner indexation, educational loan forgiveness proposals, and LNR social object initiatives for broader IO objectives. Analyze RF IO leveraging the Austrian opposition leader's call for EU-RF cooperation. Analyze the use of Gaza City before/after imagery for its intended IO impact. Monitor RF IO regarding economic stability for its impact on public perception. Conduct deep analysis of RF IO on China's military parade and its links to Taiwan. Assess RF IO leveraging the US court ruling on Harvard grants. Monitor RF IO regarding the development of Russian-Chinese LED screens and the ongoing Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, including participant messaging (Putin's interactive presentation, Reshetnikov's economic assessment, Overchuk's meeting with Afghan Ambassador, Degtyarev's sports diplomacy comments), and the participation of the Mongolian Prime Minister. Place high priority on collecting and analyzing information regarding Lavrov's participation in the RF-GCC strategic dialogue. Continuously monitor RF official statements on military pension increases and broader economic policy. Analyze Slutsky's comments on Kallas and SCO. Monitor the Amsterdam court ruling against Gazprom. Monitor Zakharova's statements regarding Western "hybrid attacks" for insights into RF's counter-IO strategies. Collect information on the deployment of new Mi-38 Arctic helicopters. Monitor Maria Zakharova's statements regarding NATO's Namejs 2025 exercises. Prioritize collection on Maria Zakharova's statements concerning the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra and Ukrainian religious policy, as well as her comments on Azerbaijan's prisoner release and the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group. Intensify collection on RF milblogger content for granular details on combat operations, unit movements, and immediate IO responses. Monitor TASS reporting on the Epstein video for continued IO exploitation. Collect and analyze the full list and schedule of participants for the "Coalition of the Resolute" summit in Paris. Monitor RF IO related to the UK's transfer of frozen assets. Closely track and analyze Trump's public statements regarding Ukraine and RF. Monitor TASS amplification of Sarkozy's "historical mistake" statement and other similar narratives. Track any new information related to Rybar's "Eyes on Orbit" videos. Monitor ASTRA's report on China not confirming "Power of Siberia-2" and how RF counters this narrative. Analyze RF IO promoting militarization of Ukrainian children. Monitor for any further diplomatic friction for RF (Tashkent diplomatic note). Collect intelligence from UAF's captured RF assault trooper. Immediately prioritize collection on RF SVR claims regarding German Chancellor Merz and any alleged concealment of Taurus missile supplies to Ukraine. Monitor Putin's activities in Vladivostok, particularly interactions with military or industrial leaders. Closely track RF internal digital hygiene campaigns and any associated messaging. Analyze Kotsnews' IO on "Strength of Siberia-2" and the "fall of Macron" for its broader geopolitical messaging. Monitor TASS reports on Putin visiting the 155th Marine Brigade museum and interactive zone for IO implications. Conduct deeper analysis of "Aviakhab's" book to gauge its influence on military morale. Monitor Госдума discussions on SIM card ownership for potential internal security implications. Assess RF IO use of the "Ant" exoskeleton video for insights into technological priorities. Monitor Рыбарь's geopolitical IO regarding Romania and Moldova. Collect details on the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment's crowdfunding efforts. Collect detailed intelligence on the FSB's detention of an alleged SBU agent in Kherson, including methods of capture, alleged activities, and any intelligence obtained. Monitor RF IO regarding Germany's discussion of troop redeployment to Poland, specifically how it is framed to undermine NATO unity or justify RF actions. Intensify collection on all EEF reporting, particularly on any discussions of "technical stagnation" or ruble devaluation, to confirm and exploit RF economic vulnerabilities. Collect and analyze any further details or amplification of Z-propagandist Kashevarova's claims regarding the formation of units from military personnel with hepatitis and HIV, assessing its impact on RF public perception and international human rights concerns. Monitor any changes in Mykolaiv's water supply situation for civilian resilience indicators. Collect detailed information on the Kyiv SIZO investigation into the death of an inmate, looking for any broader implications for Ukrainian legal or security systems. Collect all-source intelligence on the claimed capture of a Ukrainian DRG in Bryansk Oblast, verifying details of the group, their mission, and any recovered equipment. Verify and assess the claimed sighting of a camouflaged enemy vehicle west of Novoselivka by RF special forces. Monitor reports of Google and YouTube outages for any potential RF cyber activity or IO exploitation. Monitor and analyze the content and reach of Janus Putkonen's IO. Collect and analyze RF statements regarding Ukraine and EU's alleged lack of desire for peace and RF's conditional readiness for dialogue in Istanbul. Monitor Rybar's "Nuclear Support Specialist Day" IO for insights into RF strategic messaging. Analyze Операция Z's (Russkaya Vesna) IO targeting "Filimonov." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Robust Counter-Propaganda and Strategic Communications (Kupyansk (CRITICAL)/Sieversk/Kamyshevakha/Novoselivka/Yanvarske, Donetsk Oblast (RF Offensive - CRITICAL), KHERSION (Karantynny Island), Civilian Casualties, Winter Narrative, RF-China-DPRK-Vietnam Alignment, Infrastructure Strikes, Internal Debates, Domestic Production, Ground Robotics, Putin's Statements, IPSO Army, Mobilization, Anti-Thermal Cloaks, RF IO "09 09 25" Graphic, UAF MFA Counter-Threats, Odesa Threat and Strikes, Frozen Conflict Narrative, Rubikon Drone Groups, RF Internal Economic/Tech IO, EEF Messaging, Zakharova Statements, Slutsky SCO Comments, Trump's Position, LNR Social Objects, Zelenskyy's Concessions Statement, Gazprom Ruling, Von der Leyen Plane Incident, GTLC Baikal Aircraft, Yakutia Mine, Mi-38 Helicopters, Namejs 2025, Simonenko Appeal, Religious Discord, Caucasus Diplomacy, FAB-3000 Strikes, RF EW Capabilities, RF Milblogger Content, Epstein Video, Humanitarian Aid for Troops, RF Air Defense Claims, "Power of Siberia-2" non-confirmation, RF Ground Advances (Chervonaya Dibrova, Grigorievka), Saldo's Corruption Claims, RF Riverine Operations, RF's Largest Regrouping/New Offensive, Merz/Taurus IO, Putin's Vladivostok Tour, Aeroflot Airport Costs, Kotsnews/Macron IO, 155th Marine Brigade Museum, Aviakhab Book, SIM Card Regulations, Exoskeleton Tech, Romania/Moldova IO, SBU Agent Detention, Germany-Poland Troop Movement, RF Economic Stagnation/Ruble Devaluation, RF Units with HIV/Hepatitis, Mykolaiv Water Supply, Kyiv SIZO Investigation, RF DRG Operations, RF Special Forces Reconnaissance, Google/YouTube Outages, Janus Putkonen IO, RF Claims on Peace Desire, RF Nuclear Support Day IO, Filimonov IO): Proactively disseminate verified information on RF attacks and high UAF interception rates. Immediately develop messaging to counter RF claims of gains in Kupyansk, Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, Yanvarske, Chervonaya Dibrova, and Grigorievka, providing factual context and highlighting UAF resilience with visual evidence. **Develop a comprehensive strategic communications plan to address the impending major RF offensive in Donetsk Oblast. Emphasize UAF readiness, the brutality of the RF attack, and the urgent need for sustained international support. Leverage RF successes against UAF motorized units near Pokrovsk to highlight brutality and underscore need for support. Proactively counter RF "difficult winter" narratives by showcasing preparedness and international support. Highlight RF's reliance on rogue/neutral states (China, DPRK, Vietnam, "Taliban") and internal issues. Utilize BDA from defense industry, fuel, railway, and civilian strikes (Kostiantynivka, Nikopol, Kharkiv university, Chuhuiv community, Odesa/Fontanka, Sloviansk, Pokrovsk, UAF UAV launch point, Kharkiv Oblast) to highlight RF war crimes. Address internal debates transparently (mobilization, exit for men, discussions on a "frozen conflict" scenario). Counter Putin's statements on Zelenskyy's legitimacy and meeting conditions, emphasizing Ukrainian sovereignty. Pre-emptively counter GUR's warning about RF IPSO army. Actively leverage the upcoming Trump-Zelenskyy-European leaders call to project high-level Western support, and directly counter any RF attempts to frame Trump's position as seeking "common ground" with Russia against Ukrainian interests. Actively counter RF's use of anti-thermal imaging cloaks. Prepare comprehensive counter-IO for any new RF cyber or information operations indicated by the "09 09 25" Apple logo graphic. Leverage the destruction of RF S-300 and radar for IO. Amplify the UAF MFA's strong response to Putin's threats. Immediately disseminate public warnings and protective measures for Odesa regarding incoming drone threats, demonstrating responsible governance and civilian protection, and provide rapid updates on current strike impact. Develop clear messaging regarding discussions on a "frozen conflict" scenario, emphasizing that such decisions rest with the Ukrainian President and that reconstruction support would be vital, to counter RF attempts to leverage this for its own narrative. Publicly highlight and counter the operational capabilities of new RF drone groups, such as "Rubikon," to raise awareness and foster resilience. Develop counter-narratives to RF internal IO regarding economic stability (fuel market, LED screens, EEF (VTB deposit growth, Sergey Tsivilev's interview, Putin's presentation, Reshetnikov's economic assessment), military pension increases, Far East energy funding, foreign currency sales, energy sector development, LNR social objects, educational loan forgiveness, Rosseti investments, Rosatom borrowing, Minfin stance on cash, GTLC Baikal aircraft, increased Russia-China flight frequency, Olympics participation, Aeroflot airport costs) to prevent the perception of RF strength and normalcy. Proactively address any RF attempts to use Lavrov's GCC dialogue for anti-Ukrainian or anti-Western narratives. Aggressively counter Maria Zakharova's new narratives on Ukraine's security guarantees being a "danger" to Europe and US missile sales undermining peace talks. Also counter Slutsky's claims of Western "hysteria" over SCO results. Reiterate Ukraine's rejection of foreign military intervention. Amplify Zelenskyy's statement that territorial concessions will lead to war in Europe. Highlight the Amsterdam court ruling against Gazprom as a win for Ukraine. Develop immediate counter-IO to Zakharova's claims regarding Von der Leyen's plane incident, emphasizing Russian disinformation tactics. If necessary, provide factual updates on the Yakutia mine collapse without amplifying Russian narratives. Counter RF IO leveraging the Simonenko appeal. Actively counter RF IO related to new Mi-38 Arctic helicopters by highlighting their limited military utility in the current conflict. Counter Maria Zakharova's statements regarding NATO's Namejs 2025 exercises by emphasizing NATO's defensive posture and the transparency of its drills. Develop immediate counter-IO to Maria Zakharova's accusations regarding the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, highlighting religious freedom in Ukraine and exposing RF's attempts to sow discord. Counter RF narratives on Azerbaijan and the OSCE Minsk Group by emphasizing Ukraine's sovereignty and condemning RF interference in regional affairs. Document and publicize the indiscriminate nature and destructive power of FAB-3000 strikes. Directly counter RF claims of EW superiority, particularly on the Zaporizhzhia front, by highlighting UAF adaptations and continued drone effectiveness. Actively monitor and counter narratives propagated by RF milbloggers, providing factual and timely rebuttals to their claims of RF success or UAF setbacks, and countering propaganda related to humanitarian aid for troops. CRITICAL: Develop and disseminate clear messaging to counter RF claims of UAF mining Karantynny Island (Kherson), framing it as RF pre-emptive justification for aggression. Highlight the capabilities demonstrated by "Shadow Unit" and other UAF units, and the 46th Brigade's drone operator recruitment. Actively publicize the results and coordination of the "Coalition of the Resolute" summit in Paris. Counter RF claims of shooting down 46 Ukrainian UAVs by providing factual information on UAF drone operations and objectives. Actively leverage the UK's transfer of over $1 billion from frozen RF assets as a concrete example of international support for Ukraine and a consequence for RF aggression. Immediately issue counter-narratives to Trump's statements about peace readiness and his relationships with Putin, Xi, and Kim, emphasizing that only Ukraine can determine its path to peace. Counter Sarkozy's "historical mistake" statement by highlighting RF's ongoing aggression and war crimes. Counter RF light IO on car ratings. Counter Basurin's "unipolar world" narrative. Counter Saldo's claims of Ukrainian corruption with factual evidence of humanitarian aid and support for families. Highlight ASTRA's report on "Power of Siberia-2" as a sign of cracks in RF-China energy cooperation. Counter RF narratives related to riverine operations. Develop strong counter-narratives to RF's "Putin's youth army" IO, emphasizing child protection and international law. Leverage ASTRA's report on Tashkent's diplomatic note to highlight RF's diplomatic isolation and internal tensions. Amplify the importance of UAF drone training. Use UAF memorial posts to counter RF narratives of UAF weakness. Counter RF milblogger drone requests by highlighting UAF drone production and effectiveness. Counter RF SVR claims about German Chancellor Merz and alleged concealment of Taurus missile supplies by emphasizing Germany's transparency and sovereign decision-making. Leverage Canada's lowering of the Russian oil price cap for IO. Actively document and disseminate images of damage in Sloviansk and Odesa to counter RF narratives of precision strikes and to highlight civilian suffering. Counter Kotsnews' IO linking "Strength of Siberia-2" to Macron's "fall." Proactively address the implications of the overnight 112 UAV attack, emphasizing UAF resilience and the need for enhanced air defense. Counter RF IO on Putin's visit to the 155th Marine Brigade museum and the "Aviakhab" book to prevent glorification of RF military. Actively counter RF narratives surrounding SIM card regulations and migrant control, portraying them as repressive measures. Counter RF IO promoting military exoskeletons by highlighting their limited practical impact on the battlefield. Challenge Рыбарь's geopolitical IO regarding Romania and Moldova. Counter RF crowdfunding calls for military units by emphasizing international support for Ukraine. Immediately develop and disseminate counter-IO to RF claims of SBU agent detention in Kherson, framing it as a false flag or an attempt to suppress local resistance. Counter RF IO regarding Germany's discussion of troop redeployment to Poland by emphasizing NATO's defensive posture and collective security. Proactively address and counter RF narratives regarding "technical stagnation" and ruble devaluation, highlighting the resilience of Ukraine's economy and the impact of sanctions. Prepare robust counter-IO to Z-propagandist Kashevarova's claims regarding units with HIV/Hepatitis, emphasizing humanitarian law and condemning the dehumanization of soldiers. Leverage the news of Mykolaiv residents receiving fresh water for the first time since 2022 as a powerful narrative of Ukrainian resilience, reconstruction, and effective governance, contrasting it with RF's destructive actions. Highlight the completion of the Kyiv SIZO investigation as evidence of Ukraine's commitment to rule of law and transparency, contrasting it with RF's lack of accountability. Proactively counter RF claims of UAF use of incendiary mixtures in LNR. Publicize UAF losses on Pokrovsk to underscore the intensity of fighting and need for support. Counter RF IO claims of captured Ukrainian DRGs. Counter RF IO on "Filimonov" by The Times. Emphasize Macron's statement on completed security guarantees for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Enhanced Border Security and Security for Mass Gatherings: Conduct immediate review of border security protocols to prevent illegal crossings and manage mobilization challenges. Implement heightened security for the Rosh Hashanah pilgrimage in Uman. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: RF deep strikes continue to target Ukraine's defense industry and railway infrastructure. Civilian targeting remains high, with confirmed deadly artillery/FPV drone strikes on Kostiantynivka and sustained attacks on the Nikopol region and Kharkiv Oblast. Ballistic missile threats are active. Ground operations are intensely focused on Sieversk and Kupyansk. RF continues to claim significant gains and even UAF surrenders in Kupyansk, while UAF actively denies these claims and demonstrates successful counter-actions. DeepState (UAF source) confirms RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk, though UAF maintains RF lacks "firm control" over the city center. RF claims new assaults on Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), supported by UAV footage of targeted positions and personnel. RF also claims to have neutralized a Bradley IFV and a field ammunition depot with a Fagot ATGM, and to have detained an SBU agent in Kherson Oblast engaged in espionage. UAF reports the destruction of an S-300V SAM system in the Zaporizhzhia direction. UAF demonstrates tactical innovation with ground robotic complexes, secures additional air defense from Nordic/Baltic countries, and maintains significant domestic artillery/drone production. Diplomatic and information warfare efforts continue, with UAF securing further Western support and RF attempting to sow discord and amplify anti-Western narratives. Putin concluded his China visit, making several statements regarding Ukraine, NATO, and economic cooperation with China, projecting a dual message of "peace" vs. "military solution." RF is actively conducting artillery strikes in the Kharkiv direction, with confirmed casualties. NATO ISR aircraft activity is reported near Kaliningrad/Belarus border, indicating heightened regional vigilance. European leaders, including Zelenskyy and Macron, are scheduled for a call with Trump, highlighting continued high-level diplomatic engagement. RF IO is heavily pushing narratives of Ukrainian corruption. New RF drone group activity in Chernihiv region, southwestern direction. UAF has successfully downed a "Gerbera with a rear-view camera" drone. UAF successfully destroyed RF D-20 artillery and a 2S3 self-propelled howitzer with drone strikes. New Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast. UAF special forces (Shybenyk Squad, 2nd Assault Company, Kraken) are conducting operations in Sumy Oblast. RF continues to use BM-21 Grad MLRS. Ukraine launches its largest port investment project, indicating economic resilience and long-term planning. Ukrainian forces report Russians are using anti-thermal imaging cloaks for infiltration tactics. RF IO emphasizes Putin's conditional willingness to meet Zelenskyy in Moscow, contrasting with Zelenskyy's statements on Ukraine's "Korean Scenario" and the need for US security guarantees. RF IO also focuses on internal control in Belgorod concerning UAV attack information. UAF claims significant destruction of RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reports a power outage in Krasnodar Krai due to a UAV strike. RF IO is leveraging discussion of a "frozen conflict" for Ukraine. RF IO is pushing a narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. RF drones originating from Donetsk Oblast are now reported on course for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF sources continue to claim significant advances in Kupyansk, with UAF sources also confirming RF infiltration and presence, albeit noting a lack of "firm control" over the city center, and indicating fragmented UAF defense. RF UAV group detected in Southern Sumy Oblast, moving west. RF UAVs on course for Poltava Oblast. Several groups of RF UAVs detected in northern Kharkiv Oblast (Chuhuiv Raion). RF military transport aircraft confirmed arriving in North Korea, with coffins draped in North Korean flags visible, suggesting potential military assistance or return of personnel. Explosion heard in Chuhuiv community, Kharkiv Oblast. RF reports five Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Rostov Oblast. New groups of RF UAVs are inbound from the Black Sea towards Odesa/Fontanka. The air raid alert for Odesa and Chornomorsk has been lifted following successful UAF interception of all incoming Shahed UAVs. The Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) continues in Vladivostok. RF is actively promoting a rise in military pensions and a continued increase in the 2026 budget, signaling long-term commitment to military personnel welfare. RF is also discussing financing for new energy generation in the Far East. RF IO is now actively countering claims of Western support for Ukraine, with Maria Zakharova stating that Ukraine's security guarantees are "guarantees of danger" for Europe. Colonelcassad reports a FAB-3000 strike on a UAF Forward Operating Base (FOB). Russian milbloggers "Two Majors" and "Parisan56rus" are providing footage from the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction. Russian milblogger "Operation Z" (via Russkaya Vesna) released a video on "Electronic Warfare (EW) strike" on the Zaporizhzhia front. UAF General Staff provides updated estimated RF combat losses. UAF reports two UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF sources claim UAF forces are mining houses on Karantynny Island (Kherson). RF Ministry of Defense claims 46 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions and the Black Sea. UK has directed over $1 billion from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. Aftermath of drone attack on Odesa: fire in a warehouse, no casualties. Trump states that Putin and Zelenskyy are not yet ready for a peace agreement. RF Ministry of Defense reports an additional four UAVs shot down over Volgograd Oblast. Colonelcassad posts drone footage of high-precision strikes on UAF trench positions by operators of the 5th Army Group "Vostok." Rybar provides a map-based analysis video of RF offensive operations in the Shcherbinovka area (between August 12-31, 2025). TASS reports RF military advances near Chervonaya Dibrova (LNR) and control of 5 hectares of forest near Grigorievka (DNR). Zvиздец Мангусту provides a brief summary from various directions and considerations regarding events on the Dobropillya direction, specifically mentioning the Sieversk (Slavyansk) direction and potential regrouping for the Pokrovsk assault. ASTRA reports China has not confirmed Putin's statements about "Power of Siberia-2." Operatsiya Z (Russkaya Vesna) reports RF air defense shot down 46 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. Два майора posts a video (18+) with "18th Combined Arms Army" insignia, showing an aerial strike on a small boat with personnel in water. Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of enemy UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving southwest. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video claiming that drones attacked 17 Russian oil refineries in August. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posts a photo message stating "84 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed." ASTRA reports that Ukraine's Air Force states Russia attacked with 112 UAVs overnight, and UAF neutralized 84 of them. Шеф Hayabusa posts photos of damage in Sloviansk and Odesa after night attacks. RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia is preparing a new offensive against Ukraine, citing Bloomberg. UAF General Staff reports repelling 5 RF army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction.
NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports RF losses on the Pokrovsk direction of between 150-200 casualties over a period of time, with the direction remaining the hottest part of the front. Another report states 60,000 "rashists" lost on the Pokrovsk direction over 10 months. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF source)
NEW: ТАСС reports Putin familiarized himself with an interactive presentation on the development of the Far East and received reports on work done, at the EEF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photo messages showing UAF personnel engaged in direct fire with a large caliber weapon, with a caption "We must be ready for anything. Firing at targets with a large caliber weapon with direct aiming." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF is again using incendiary mixtures to set fires in LNR. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF milblogger claim)
NEW: Colonelcassad posts a video claiming the recent capture of a Ukrainian DRG (sabotage and reconnaissance group) in Bryansk Oblast. The group's task was reportedly to commit terrorist acts on railway network facilities in the oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim with video evidence)
NEW: ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova stated at the EEF that "Russia once saved Germany. Now the German people must awaken and save themselves; the situation in the country is comparable to a pulled self-destruction pin." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Kotsnews posts "Merz threatens revenge," likely referring to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: STERNENKO posts a video claiming a group from the 3rd Special Operations Forces Regiment "POPRYVSSE" destroyed and then set fire to an enemy Mavic drone operator's shelter in the Pokrovsk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Воин DV posts a video claiming scouts from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade located a camouflaged enemy vehicle in the forests west of Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), with drone footage showing smoke. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: РБК-Україна reports Macron stated that the preparation of security guarantees for Ukraine is complete. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Fighterbomber posts a comment critical of historical narratives regarding the Red Army. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV in the Black Sea waters near Odesa Oblast, with means engaged for shooting it down, and advises seeking shelter if an alarm is announced. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov stated at the EEF that the Russian economy is cooling faster than expected. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) posts a photo message implying a summit of "willing idiots" today discussing "Ukraine's guarantees." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO/anti-Western source)
NEW: Север.Реалии reports users experienced Google and YouTube outages in various countries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Deputy Prime Minister Overchuk met with Afghanistan's Ambassador to Moscow Gul Hassan after an EEF session. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Kotsnews post photo messages with the caption "Военкоры" (milbloggers), featuring portraits of two men. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБ launches by enemy tactical aviation on Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Degtyarev, at the EEF session "Sports Diplomacy: New Challenges and Opportunities," stated that dozens of football (soccer) executives have changed their rhetoric on changing the limit for foreign players in the country's championship. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts a video from the cockpit of a Ukrainian MiG-29 during a bomb drop on occupier positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС posts a video showing Putin with a delegation, including military personnel, observing urban development plans. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated that the Russian Federation observes that Ukraine and the EU currently lack the desire to seek peaceful resolutions to the crisis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 issues an "ATTENTION" alert. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Народная милиция ДНР posts a video claiming the destruction of AFU positions, PVD (forward operating base), and a communication antenna by forces of the 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (orb) in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim with video evidence)
NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for "Threat of ballistic weaponry from the south." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Moscow is ready to continue dialogue with Kyiv in Istanbul and is open to considering raising the level of delegations, stated Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Военкор Котенок reports Western resources are pushing the narrative that the RF Armed Forces are conducting their largest regrouping in three years. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF milblogger on Western reporting)
NEW: Рыбарь posts a photo message celebrating "Nuclear Support Specialist Day," featuring a stylized graphic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Николаевский Ванёк reports "ballistics on Tuzly/Mykolaivka !!!" and "working with adjustment near Tuzly." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: STERNENKO reports "Ballistic threat from the south!" (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: MoD Russia posts a video claiming a crew of 2S44 Giatsint-K self-propelled artillery systems of the 8th Combined Arms Army (Tsentr Group of Forces) obliterated a concealed UAV command post and strongholds of the AFU in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim with video evidence)
NEW: Басурин о главном posts a video showing young contract soldiers learning first aid and evacuation techniques. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Новости Москвы posts a video promoting the "Open Water" festival in Krylatskoye, Moscow. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Операция Z (via Russkaya Vesna) posts a photo message with "British circus: how The Times sculpts an 'unkillable hero' out of Filimonov," an IO piece against a Ukrainian figure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
Air/Missile Assets: Actively employing long-range precision air-launched weapons (КАБ on Donetsk and Sumy, new КАБ launches towards Zaporizhzhia, and now Kharkiv Oblast), attack UAVs (Lancet on UAF radar, FPV drones on checkpoint, FPV drone strike on vehicle near Sumy border), tactical aviation (southeast and northeast directions), and conducting drone strikes (Kharkiv direction, Nikopol region, Kharkiv city). Reports strikes on UAF UAV/artillery electronics in Khmelnytskyi. Claims of strikes on "Motor" aircraft repair plant in Lutsk and "Donmashstroy" in Kramatorsk. Artillery (Msta-S, BM-21 Grad MLRS) actively employed in Kharkiv direction. Claims of strike on UAF UAV operator location in Kupyansk-Uzlovoy. RF animated strike scheme details alleged widespread drone strikes across multiple regions. Claims of Kalibr/Geran strikes on "Spetsoboronmash" plant near Kyiv Oblast border. UAV group in Chernihiv region moving southwest. Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast (including Pokrovsky district, Belozerske/Dobropillya). UAV group from Kharkiv to Donetsk Oblast. UAV group from Donetsk to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAV group in Southern Sumy Oblast, moving west. RF UAVs on course for Poltava Oblast. Several groups of RF UAVs detected in northern Kharkiv Oblast (Chuhuiv Raion). Reports a power outage in Krasnodar Krai due to a UAV strike. Groups of RF UAVs inbound from the Black Sea towards Odesa/Fontanka (approx. 14 Shaheds) were successfully intercepted. RF claims five Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Rostov Oblast. "Rubikon" air defense combat groups operating various drones (Leleka-100, RQ-35 Heidrun, Vector, VT-260) over Ukrainian fields. New claim of a successful ЛМУР strike on a UAF UAV launch point for the 22nd Motorized Brigade. A new RF UAV group is currently active in northern Sumy Oblast, heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. Ballistic missile threat from the northeast. High-speed target detected on Sumy. UAF Air Force reports КАБ launches towards Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Colonelcassad reports a FAB-3000 strike on a UAF PVD (Forward Operating Base). "Operation Z" video highlights RF Electronic Warfare (EW) capabilities against UAF drones, likely to protect ground forces, specifically on the Zaporizhzhia front. RF Ministry of Defense claims 46 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions and the Black Sea.
NEW: Rybar's "Eyes on Orbit" videos show at least two distinct multi-stage rocket/missile launches at night from coastal/urban areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: The additional four UAVs shot down over Volgograd Oblast demonstrate RF's active air defense capability against perceived UAF cross-border threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) claims RF air defense shot down 46 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF claim)
NEW: Два майора posts a video showing an aerial strike on a small boat with personnel, likely on the Dnipro River, attributed to the "18th Combined Arms Army." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a new group of enemy UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast, moving southwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Воин DV (RF milblogger) posts a video of drone bombardment by the 38th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, 35th Army, "Vostok" Group, targeting enemy personnel concentrations in the Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ASTRA reports that Ukraine's Air Force states Russia attacked with 112 UAVs overnight, meaning that 28 UAVs were not neutralized by UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) reports Russian aviation inflicted a powerful strike on critical enemy infrastructure, with multiple videos showing nighttime explosions and fires in Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Colonelcassad posts a video of a BM-21 "Grad" MLRS crew. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for Chernihiv Oblast regarding enemy strike UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning for Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorod district) regarding enemy strike UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Военкор Котенок claims 50 Ukrainian aircraft-type drones were shot down overnight by air defense. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF milblogger claim)
NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a photo message asking "Is Ukraine creating a ground-based cruise missile?", reflecting RF intelligence/IO concern. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: MoD Russia releases video claiming a Fagot ATGM of the Zapad Group of Forces neutralized a Bradley IFV, a field ammunition depot, and AFU manpower. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Mash на Донбассе posts a video claiming the Russian army began assaulting Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, showing UAV footage of strikes on a damaged building and surrounding area with military personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV in the Black Sea waters near Odesa Oblast, with means engaged for shooting it down. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: MoD Russia posts a video claiming a crew of 2S44 Giatsint-K self-propelled artillery systems of the 8th Combined Arms Army (Tsentr Group of Forces) obliterated a concealed UAV command post and strongholds of the AFU in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, supported by aerial footage of a damaged settlement and explosions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Ground Forces: Strong offensive focus on Sieversk. Asserting control of "about half" of Kupyansk, directly contradicted by UAF but also met with UAF counter-action against flag-planting assault groups. DeepState is now confirming RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk, though UAF still denies firm control of the city center, only small group infiltration. Reports of RF successfully destroying UAF motorized units near Pokrovsk with casualties. Claims liberation of Kamyshevakha and full control of Yanvarske. Persistent attempts at infiltration (Pokrovsk axis). Engages fortified positions. Putin claims all RF groupings are successfully advancing. Conducted deadly artillery/FPV drone strikes on Kostiantynivka. RF forces are employing anti-thermal imaging cloaks to facilitate covert infiltration. RF utilizes drones for surveillance and targeting. RF engineering vehicle (likely AVLB) destroyed by UAF forces, though RF attempts to misattribute it to UAF losses for IO. RF 506th Regiment "Otvazhnye" reportedly engaged in combat around Pokrovsk. RF "Russkaya Vesna" is showcasing large-scale social object creation in Luhansk People's Republic (LNR). FAB-3000 strike on a UAF PVD (Forward Operating Base). "Two Majors" video ("No obstacles for the Guard!") shows aerial combat footage. "Two Majors" and "Partizan56rus" are posting from the Pokrovsk direction. Vladimir Saldo claims UAF are mining houses on Karantynny Island (Kherson).
NEW: "Operation Z" video of an FPV drone strike on a vehicle in the border area, claiming to support an advance on Sumy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Colonelcassad drone footage of high-precision strikes by 5th Army Group "Vostok" operators on UAF trench positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Rybar's map-based analysis of the Shcherbinovka area (August 12-31, 2025) details RF advances and encirclements of UAF positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: TASS reports RF military advances near Chervonaya Dibrova (LNR) and control of 5 hectares of forest near Grigorievka (DNR), citing military expert Marochko. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF source)
NEW: WarGonzo's "Frontline summary for the morning of 04.09.25" with multiple photo messages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Zvиздец Мангусту's summary indicates continued focus on the Sieversk (Slavyansk) direction and provides insight into RF's planning for the Pokrovsk assault. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - milblogger source)
NEW: Colonelcassad posts a video claiming "First Tank Army" destroyed an enemy pickup and combatant. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that RF forces have carried out their largest regrouping since the 2022 Kyiv battles, amassing a large number of forces for a "final, decisive battle" for the rest of Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: RBC-Ukraine reports that Russia is preparing a new offensive against Ukraine, citing Bloomberg. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: UAF General Staff reports repelling 5 RF army assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a photo message about the "Konstantinovsky direction." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Воин DV posts a video showing "harsh hits on enemy manpower trying to escape, but unsuccessfully," depicting drone footage of strikes on fortified positions and personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Kotsnews posts a video showcasing the "Ant" exoskeleton vest designed to reduce fatigue and enhance mobility for soldiers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Два майора posts a video urging "Let's activate! Over the past day, 669 people participated in the collection for assault troops of the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Два майора posts video of UAV operator training from the Konstantinovsky direction, specifically naming the 33rd Motorized Rifle Berlin-Don Cossack Regiment, 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: MoD Russia releases video claiming a Fagot ATGM of the Zapad Group of Forces neutralized a Bradley IFV, a field ammunition depot, and AFU manpower. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Mash на Донбассе posts a video claiming the Russian army began assaulting Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims UAF is again using incendiary mixtures to set fires in LNR. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Colonelcassad posts a video showing the alleged capture of a Ukrainian DRG in Bryansk Oblast, whose task was railway sabotage. This indicates RF counter-sabotage operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Воин DV posts a video claiming scouts from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade located a camouflaged enemy vehicle in the forests west of Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). This confirms RF reconnaissance efforts in the area of claimed assault. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
C2/Intelligence: Coordinated deep strike and ground operations continue. RF IO is highly active, consolidating anti-Western narratives, promoting RF resilience and diplomatic influence, while also addressing internal security issues. Actively training personnel with FPV drones. Publicly crowdfunding for drones. Putin's press conference was a major IO event. RF IO is now actively deflecting Trump's "conspiracy" claims and using highly derogatory language against Zelenskyy. Trump's planned call with Putin is being amplified, though later clarified by UAF sources as a call with Zelenskyy, but US Ambassador Monica Crowley now states Trump wants to find common ground with RF in various spheres during talks with Putin. RF IO is promoting communistic social policies, celebrating infrastructure in Bryansk region, and promoting industrial self-sufficiency. RF is utilizing nationalistic cultural events for morale. RF IO is propagating conspiracy theories about opposition deaths in Germany. RF is also leveraging historical narratives to assert influence over European capitals. RF IO continues to push narratives about UK sanctions being cynical and deflect accusations of child abduction. RF IO is also using conspiracy theories (Epstein) to undermine Western institutions. RF IO is leveraging UAF statements on "frozen conflict" for Ukraine. RF IO is pushing a narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. RF IO is using light-hearted content, and providing daily news summaries. RF IO using a photo of Putin at a Chinese-style building to project diplomatic success. RF IO claims Kupyansk was "subsidized" and a reminder of a "totalitarian regime." RF IO also mocks Zelenskyy's actions. RF actor-volunteer interview reinforces morale. RF IO uses an ambiguous graphic with Apple logo and date "09 09 25", potentially hinting at future IO or cyber activity aimed at the West. The death of a Russian citizen at Burning Man has potential for IO exploitation. RF IO also includes civilian cultural news to project normalcy. Volgograd airport, previously under restrictions, has lifted them. Sochi airport restrictions were also implemented, then lifted. Gaza City before/after video is RF IO. RF IO highlights economic stability. RF IO is actively promoting China's military parade and linking it to Taiwan's fears. RF IO is leveraging the US court ruling on Harvard grants. The EEF is a major platform for RF IO to project economic and diplomatic strength. The strategic dialogue with the GCC is an example of RF's capability to expand diplomatic influence. The focus on military pension indexation and future budget increases for pensioners of "power structures" is a key internal IO effort. Discussions at the EEF on securing funding for Far East energy generation highlight RF's focus on internal economic development. RF IO is now actively countering claims of Western support for Ukraine, with Maria Zakharova stating that Ukraine's security guarantees are "guarantees of danger" for Europe, and that US missile sales contradict settlement talks. RF is also reinforcing internal messaging on pension indexation for working pensioners. RF is openly discussing potential revisions to foreign currency revenue sales for exporters. RF is promoting its energy sector development, including plans for an all-Russia energy meeting and the creation of a Primorye branch of Rosenergoatom. RF is using narratives about the SCO summit causing "hysteria" in the West. New RF internal security threats from scammers are being reported. New proposals regarding educational loan forgiveness for strategic sectors and Rosseti investments in the Far East show internal economic focus. The Amsterdam court denying Gazprom's appeal is a legal setback for RF, but the Khabarovsk governor's openness to ExxonMobil indicates long-term economic strategy. Rosatom's plan to attract borrowed funds for NPPs from 2028 and the Minfin's stance against abandoning cash also indicate long-term economic planning. Gold tokenization is a new technological/economic initiative. The rehearsal footage of the Alexandrov Ensemble for a China trip highlights cultural diplomacy. Maria Zakharova is actively refuting Western reports of a "hybrid attack" on Ursula von der Leyen's plane. The GTLC contract for 50 "Baikal" aircraft for "Aerokhimflot" signals continued internal development of civil aviation. The mine collapse in Yakutia is a localized industrial incident. TASS reports that a former deputy head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations in Kuban, Simonenko, is appealing his dismissal. The Mongolian Prime Minister's arrival at the EEF further expands RF's diplomatic outreach. TASS also reports the Ministry of Emergency Situations will receive nine new Arctic Mi-38 helicopters by the end of the year. Maria Zakharova, at the EEF, stated Russia is closely monitoring NATO's "Namejs 2025" exercises in Latvia. Maria Zakharova, at the EEF, commented on the Ukrainian Ministry of Culture's actions at the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra. Her statements on Azerbaijan and the OSCE Minsk Group confirm an intent to project Russian diplomatic influence. Sergey Tsivilev's interview at the EEF provides a platform for RF to project economic strength. "Fighterbomber" (RF milblogger) posts a generic "Good morning, country!" image. "Paratrooper's Diary" (RF milblogger) provides a general summary. VTB Deputy Chairman Alexander Pakhomov announced at the EEF that Russian bank deposits are expected to grow by 17% in 2025. RF sources ("Operation Z" via Russkaya Vesna) are showcasing humanitarian aid to troops. TASS continuing to report on the "missing minute" from the Epstein video. Basurin o Glavnom (RF milblogger) posts "DAYinHISTORY."
NEW: TASS reports FSB detained a 35-year-old SBU agent in Kherson Oblast for espionage against RF military units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Операция Z (Russkaya Vesna) reports Germany is discussing troop redeployment to Poland, citing NYT. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Север.Реалии reports statements at the EEF on "technical stagnation" and a decline comparable to the 1990s crisis in Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: TASS reports factors strengthening the ruble at the beginning of the year are no longer working. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: TASS reports Dima Bilan, Zivert, and Mari Kraimbreri as most popular radio performers in Russia over summer. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: TASS reports the "Coalition of the Willing" participants cannot agree on troop deployment in Ukraine, citing FT, and that the coalition is divided into three parts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Новости Москвы reports a "Motobezopasnost" raid in Moscow from Sep 5-7. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ASTRA reports Z-propagandist Kashevarova claimed the formation of units from military personnel with hepatitis and HIV, who will be issued distinctive armbands. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: TASS reports Uniqlo holding applied for 10 trademarks with Rospatent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Военкор Котенок posts videos and images related to volunteer efforts ("Dobryy Slon" foundation) to support lonely elderly people in Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: TASS reports tour operators have not received mass complaints from Russians in Turkey about a "strange virus" on beaches. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Putin familiarized himself with an interactive presentation on the development of the Far East and received reports on work done. This is a clear IO effort to project competent governance and economic development. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova stated at the EEF that "Russia once saved Germany. Now the German people must awaken and save themselves; the situation in the country is comparable to a pulled self-destruction pin." This is aggressive, revisionist IO aimed at dividing NATO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Kotsnews posts "Merz threatens revenge," an RF milblogger comment framing German political discourse. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Fighterbomber posts a comment critical of historical narratives regarding the Red Army. This indicates internal RF discourse on military history and identity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov stated at the EEF that the Russian economy is cooling faster than expected. This is a rare, open admission of economic difficulty at a major forum, likely for internal messaging to manage expectations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) posts a photo message implying a summit of "willing idiots" today discussing "Ukraine's guarantees." This is RF-aligned anti-Western IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Север.Реалии reports users experienced Google and YouTube outages in various countries. This is a technical issue but could be exploited for IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Deputy Prime Minister Overchuk met with Afghanistan's Ambassador to Moscow Gul Hassan after an EEF session. This highlights RF's diplomatic outreach to non-Western states, including the Taliban regime. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition and Kotsnews post photo messages with the caption "Военкоры" (milbloggers), featuring portraits of two men. This is IO to promote and humanize RF milbloggers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Degtyarev, at the EEF session "Sports Diplomacy: New Challenges and Opportunities," stated that dozens of football (soccer) executives have changed their rhetoric on changing the limit for foreign players in the country's championship. This is RF IO projecting influence in international sports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС posts a video showing Putin with a delegation, including military personnel, observing urban development plans. This IO portrays Putin as focused on development and projects civil-military cooperation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated that the Russian Federation observes that Ukraine and the EU currently lack the desire to seek peaceful resolutions to the crisis. This is classic RF IO to shift blame for the ongoing conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: ТАСС reports Moscow is ready to continue dialogue with Kyiv in Istanbul and is open to considering raising the level of delegations, according to Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin. This is an RF IO attempt to project reasonableness and a willingness to negotiate, while controlling the terms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Военкор Котенок reports Western resources are pushing the narrative that the RF Armed Forces are conducting their largest regrouping in three years. This is an RF milblogger acknowledging and framing Western intelligence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Рыбарь posts a photo message celebrating "Nuclear Support Specialist Day," featuring a stylized graphic. This is IO to boost morale and project strength in the nuclear domain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Басурин о главном posts a video showing young contract soldiers learning first aid and evacuation techniques. This is IO to project professionalism and care for personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Новости Москвы posts a video promoting the "Open Water" festival in Krylatskoye, Moscow. This is civilian IO to project normalcy and deflect from military conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
NEW: Операция Z (via Russkaya Vesna) posts a photo message with "British circus: how The Times sculpts an 'unkillable hero' out of Filimonov," an IO piece against a Ukrainian figure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UAF:
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
Intentions:
Courses of Action (COAs):
Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:
Medium Term (2-7 days):
ISR Priority for Kupyansk (CRITICAL), Donetsk Oblast (RF Regrouping/New Offensive - CRITICAL), Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka/Yanvarske, Pokrovsk Infiltration, KHERSION (Karantynny Island Mining/RF Offensive Prep), NEW UAV/MISSILE LAUNCH AREAS/TACTICS (Including Saturation Attacks, Rubikon Groups, UAV Launch Point Targeting, Northern Sumy to Chernihiv Route, Ballistic Missiles from NE/SOUTH, High-Speed Targets on Sumy, КАБ on Zaporizhzhia/Kharkiv Oblast, FAB-3000 Strikes, RF Cross-Border UAV Activity, Dnipro Riverine Operations), Anti-Thermal Cloaks, RF IO "09 09 25" Graphic, RF-DPRK Military Transport, RF Internal Security Incidents (Volgograd/Sochi, Scammers, Yakutia Mine, Burning Man Death, Bicycle Theft), RF-China Military IO (Including "Power of Siberia-2" Spin), RF-GCC Dialogue, and RF Internal Welfare/Economic IO (VTB Deposit Growth, Humanitarian Aid), NATO Exercises (Namejs 2025), RF IO on Religious/Caucasus Issues, RF EW Capabilities on Zaporizhzhia Front, RF Milblogger Activity (Including WarGonzo, Zvиздец Мангусту), RF Ground Advances (Chervonaya Dibrova, Grigorievka), Шеф Hayabusa Video, Trump's Peace Stance, Saldo's Corruption Claims, German Politics/Taurus Missiles, Putin's Vladivostok Activities, Aeroflot Airport Costs, Kotsnews/Macron IO, 155th Marine Brigade Museum, Aviakhab Book, SIM Card Regulations, Exoskeleton Tech, Romania/Moldova IO, RF ATGM Use, RF UAV Operator Training, RF Economic Stagnation/Ruble Devaluation, RF Units with HIV/Hepatitis, Mykolaiv Water Supply, Kyiv SIZO Investigation, RF DRG Operations in Bryansk, RF Special Forces Reconnaissance: **Immediately task all-source ISR to establish definitive ground truth on RF control and infiltration in Kupyansk, providing real-time intelligence for UAF counter-attacks and interdiction of reinforcements. CRITICAL PRIORITY: Intensify ISR on Donetsk Oblast to monitor the scale, composition, and axes of the "largest regrouping since 2022" and the reported "new offensive" by Russia. Prioritize identifying RF command and control nodes, logistical hubs, and troop concentrations to enable preemptive and disruptive strikes. Simultaneously, maintain high-priority ISR on Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, and Yanvarske to assess claimed RF advances and potential for deep penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Elevate ISR on the Pokrovsk axis to detect and interdict unconventional infiltration attempts and document civilian damage. CRITICAL PRIORITY: Intensify ISR on the Kherson direction, specifically Karantynny Island and its approaches, to verify RF claims of UAF mining and assess any indications of imminent RF offensive operations, including potential amphibious landing zones or river crossing preparations. Prioritize tracking ALL new RF UAV/missile launch areas and adaptive tactics, especially any new waves targeting Odesa, and urgently track ballistic missile launches (northeast and south directions), high-speed targets (Sumy), and КАБ launches (Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv Oblast) to determine intent and likely targets, and provide immediate BDA for confirmed strikes. Conduct urgent technical analysis and ISR on the newly identified "Rubikon" air defense combat groups, specifically identifying the operational roles of the Leleka-100, RQ-35 Heidrun, Vector, and VT-260 drones, to develop effective countermeasures. Conduct immediate BDA and assessment of the ЛМУР strike on the UAF UAV launch point for the 22nd Motorized Brigade, identifying the type of UAVs and equipment lost and any residual operational impact. Conduct immediate BDA for the FAB-3000 strike on the UAF PVD to determine casualties and damage. Actively monitor for RF use of anti-thermal imaging cloaks across all sectors, developing rapid detection and targeting solutions. Initiate immediate collection on the ambiguous "09 09 25" Apple logo graphic from Alex Parker Returns for any associated activity, to preemptively identify potential cyber or information operations targeting Western or Ukrainian interests. Conduct urgent and comprehensive ISR on the RF military transport to North Korea to identify cargo, personnel exchanges, and the nature of deepening military cooperation. Monitor and analyze any further RF internal security incidents, particularly those affecting airports (e.g., Volgograd, Sochi) and the reported increase in scammer activity (Nemkin), and the mine collapse in Yakutia, and the Simonenko appeal against dismissal, and bicycle theft in Khabarovsk Krai, and the Omks native killed at Burning Man for potential IO exploitation. Conduct deep analysis of RF IO on China's military parade and its links to Taiwan to understand the broader geopolitical narratives being pushed and their implications for the anti-Western axis, including the lack of confirmation for "Power of Siberia-2." Elevate collection on the upcoming RF-GCC strategic dialogue, particularly for any military cooperation or arms deals. Intensify monitoring of RF internal IO regarding military pensions (including Mironov's proposal for working pensioners and Slutsky's family credit rates), economic stability (CBRF key rate, Far East energy funding, foreign currency sales, all-Russia energy meeting, Rosenergoatom Primorye branch, low-carbon generation in Far East, energy cost monitoring, Rosseti investments in DFO, Rosatom borrowing for NPPs, gold tokenization, remote biometric sales, Minfin stance on cashless payments, VTB projected bank deposit growth, Aeroflot airport costs, MinEconomDev Reshetnikov's statements on cooling economy), and any cultural events (Alexandrov Ensemble rehearsals, Basurin's historical posts, Moscow "Open Water" festival) at the EEF to understand internal messaging and morale. Monitor RF IO concerning LNR social objects and the Khabarovsk governor's openness to ExxonMobil. Prioritize tracking the new RF UAV group from northern Sumy to Chernihiv Oblast, identifying its trajectory, potential targets, and any associated ground force movements. Monitor the GTLC Baikal aircraft contract for any military or dual-use implications. Monitor RF statements and ISR on NATO's Namejs 2025 exercises in Latvia for any indications of RF response, counter-activity, or propaganda aimed at NATO cohesion. Intensify collection on RF IO related to religious issues (Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra) and diplomatic maneuvering in the Caucasus (Azerbaijan, OSCE Minsk Group) to anticipate future narratives and potential hybrid actions. Prioritize collection on RF EW capabilities, specifically those highlighted on the Zaporizhzhia front, to identify systems, tactics, and their effectiveness against UAF drones. Actively monitor RF milblogger channels ("Two Majors," "Fighterbomber," "Paratrooper's Diary," "Operation Z," WarGonzo, Zvиздец Мангусту, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Kotsnews, Воин DV, Басурин о главном, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) for real-time tactical insights, confirmed engagements, and emerging IO narratives, paying close attention to reports from the Pokrovsk and Dnepropetrovsk directions, as well as new RF ground advances near Chervonaya Dibrova and Grigorievka. Conduct BDA for the RF claim of 46 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions and the Black Sea, and assess any implications for UAF cross-border operations. Intensify ISR on Rybar's "Eyes on Orbit" rocket/missile launches to determine their nature (military/civilian/test) and potential strategic implications. Immediately verify reports of RF advances and encirclements in Shcherbinovka and their impact on UAF dispositions. Continue to monitor RF FPV drone strikes in the Sumy border region and their effectiveness against UAF vehicles. Prioritize BDA for the Odesa warehouse fire and damage in Sloviansk and other Odesa areas. Conduct immediate analysis of Шеф Hayabusa's video from Krasny Sulin, Rostov Oblast, for any indicators of military activity, air defense operations, or staging. Investigate the RF strike on the boat in the Dnipro for tactical implications and to identify the nature of the targeted vessel/personnel. Closely monitor Trump's statements on peace readiness and his relationships with Putin, Xi, and Kim, and Saldo's claims of Ukrainian corruption, and RF SVR claims about German politicians (Merz, Taurus), and Kotsnews' IO on "Strength of Siberia-2" and Macron, for their impact on the information environment. Immediately assess information from UAF's captured RF assault trooper for intelligence on RF unit dispositions, morale, and tactics. Conduct BDA on the drone bombardment by the 38th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade in Zaporizhzhia and the UAF drone artillery strike on RF vehicles. Analyze Colonelcassad's video of "First Tank Army" activity for immediate tactical insights. Assess the impact of UAF attacks on RF oil refineries in August. Monitor Putin's activities in Vladivostok. Conduct ISR on UAF aviation strikes against RF drone operator locations. Monitor RF claims of 50 Ukrainian drones shot down. Assess RF IO concerns about UAF ground-based cruise missiles. Monitor TASS reports on Putin visiting the 155th Marine Brigade museum and interactive zone. Analyze the content of Aviakhab's book by the military pilot for insights into RF military culture and morale. Monitor Госдума discussions on SIM card ownership. Assess RF IO use of the "Ant" exoskeleton video for technological projections. Monitor Рыбарь's geopolitical IO regarding Romania and Moldova. Collect details on the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment's crowdfunding efforts. Prioritize collection on RF ATGM deployments and effectiveness, particularly those claiming to neutralize Western-supplied IFVs. Intensify ISR on RF UAV operator training, noting unit affiliations and locations, to understand RF adaptation in drone warfare. Monitor RF internal economic reporting from EEF and TASS, specifically on "technical stagnation" and ruble weakening, to gauge internal vulnerabilities. Collect and analyze information on Z-propagandist Kashevarova's claims regarding the formation of units from military personnel with hepatitis and HIV, assessing its impact on RF public perception and international human rights concerns. Conduct immediate ISR on the claimed RF assault on Novoselivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Confirm UAF reported losses on the Pokrovsk direction. Conduct immediate ISR on RF DRG operations in Bryansk, including claimed capture and railway sabotage. Conduct ISR on RF special forces reconnaissance operations, particularly west of Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). Monitor Google/YouTube outages for any potential RF cyber activity or IO exploitation. Monitor RF diplomatic engagements with Afghanistan. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Aggressive Counter-Attacks and Reinforcements in Kupyansk (CRITICAL), Donetsk Oblast (RF Offensive - CRITICAL), Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka/Yanvarske, Enhance Counter-Infiltration Tactics, and Leverage All-Domain Assets - INCLUDING KHERSION DEFENSIVE MEASURES: **Immediately commit tactical reserves and robust fire support (artillery, HIMARS, BM-21 Grad counter-battery) to decisively counter RF advances in Kupyansk, Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, and Yanvarske, with explicit orders to deny consolidation and disrupt westward movement. CRITICAL ACTION: Given the largest RF regrouping since 2022 and the reported new offensive, immediately reinforce UAF positions across Donetsk Oblast with all available resources. Implement deep defensive lines, prepare for large-scale counter-attacks, and prioritize interdicting RF advance routes with precision fires. Refine and disseminate TTPs for countering small-group infiltration (Pokrovsk) and specifically develop rapid counter-tactics against anti-thermal imaging cloaks, prioritizing protection for drone operators and mortar teams. Accelerate operational deployment of ground robotic complexes ("NC13"). Systematically target RF artillery (D-20, 2S3, 2S19 Msta-S, BM-21 Grad, 2S44 Giatsint-K), armored vehicles (BTR-82, Bradley IFV), UAV warehouses, UAV command posts, and fortifications using drone and precision artillery strikes. Prioritize the defense and hardening of UAV launch points. Provide all necessary support (ISR, fire, logistical) to UAF special forces in Sumy Oblast. Enhance counter-mobility operations to target RF engineering vehicles. Maintain intense pressure on RF elements in the Pokrovsk area, including the 506th Regiment. Review and adapt defensive measures against the use of heavy unguided aerial bombs (FAB-3000) against UAF PVDs and troop concentrations, considering dispersal and hardening of forward positions. CRITICAL ACTION: Given RF claims of UAF mining Karantynny Island, immediately enhance defensive preparations in Kherson, including counter-mobility obstacles, increased ISR coverage, and pre-positioned fire support, to thwart any potential RF offensive across the Dnipro or attempts to exploit perceived UAF defensive measures. Increase the use of drone-guided ordnance, as demonstrated by "Shadow Unit," to target RF positions. Conduct immediate counter-offensives or reinforcement operations in the Shcherbinovka area to break any RF encirclements and stabilize the front. Actively counter any new RF ground advances near Chervonaya Dibrova and Grigorievka. Implement enhanced riverine patrols and defensive measures on the Dnipro to counter RF operations against small watercraft. Intensify UAF drone training for counter-drone operations, detection, and camouflage. Leverage captured RF assault trooper for intelligence and IO against RF forces. Actively repel RF assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction, as reported by UAF General Staff, to prevent new penetrations. Continue to strike enemy deployment locations, firing positions, and rear areas in Southern Ukraine, leveraging mortar and artillery fire. Continue to document and highlight alleged Russian child abduction and military indoctrination for international audiences. Focus on developing and deploying UAF ground-based cruise missiles to counter RF deep strike capabilities, if technically feasible, to address RF IO concerns. Prioritize the interdiction of RF ground assaults on Novoselivka with all available indirect and direct fire assets to prevent a westward push into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Enhance anti-tank defenses and training in sectors facing RF ATGM threats. Continue to aggressively target and destroy RF SAM systems, as demonstrated by the destruction of the S-300V in Zaporizhzhia, to degrade RF air defense capabilities. Counter RF use of incendiary mixtures in LNR if confirmed. Enhance counter-DRG capabilities in border regions. Protect UAF forward operating bases (PVDs) and communication antennas from targeted RF strikes. Utilize UAF MiG-29s for targeted aerial strikes on confirmed occupier positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Accelerate Air Defense Modernization, Munition Resupply, and EW (CRITICAL URGENCY), Counter-FPV/Advanced Drones, Protect Defense Industry and Educational Facilities, Strengthen Civilian Protection (CRITICAL URGENCY for Odesa - though threat neutralized, this remains high priority for future attacks) and Ballistic Missile Threats: Conduct immediate, comprehensive review of air defense dispositions, prioritizing systems for critical defense industry, railway/bridge infrastructure, and population centers across all affected oblasts. Despite the recent successful neutralization of UAV threats against Odesa and other regions, continue to prioritize reinforcement of air defense for Odesa and its critical port infrastructure, preparing for future waves of Shahed drones and adaptive RF tactics. **CRITICAL URGENCY: Immediately reassess air defense strategies and resources following the saturation attack of 112 UAVs and the 28 successful penetrations. Prioritize rapid deployment of additional AD assets, including newly secured systems, to fill gaps and enhance multi-layered defense against high-volume attacks. Intensify coordination for urgent replenishment of interceptors and fast-track establishment of new missile/drone/fuel production capabilities in Denmark. Prioritize training for new EW/SHORAD systems and rapid counter-measures for adapted RF drones, including those identified in the "Rubikon" air defense combat groups. Urgently develop and deploy counter-FPV drone capabilities and enhanced physical/air defense security for defense industry sites and educational facilities. Leverage successful UAF strikes on RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar for intelligence on RF air defense vulnerabilities. Dedicate significant air defense resources to track and neutralize the new RF UAV group detected in northern Sumy Oblast, targeting Chernihiv Oblast. Immediately activate all ballistic missile warning systems and deploy interceptor assets to counter the new ballistic missile threats from the northeast and south (Tuzly/Mykolaivka), and high-speed targets on Sumy. Enhance air defense coverage for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Kharkiv Oblast to counter КАБ launches. Develop rapid response protocols for FAB-3000 attacks on ground positions, including early warning and shelters. Urgently enhance UAF EW capabilities, especially on the Zaporizhzhia front, to counter and jam RF drones and prevent them from operating freely. Accelerate the development and deployment of counter-UAS platforms specifically designed to defeat RF EW-hardened drones. Maintain high vigilance and readiness for any renewed RF UAV activity over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, learning from the recent successful interceptions. Continue to monitor RF air defense actions against UAF cross-border UAVs to identify vulnerabilities or new RF defensive capabilities. Accelerate the hardening and dispersion of critical infrastructure in Odesa, particularly warehouses and port facilities, given the recent drone strike. Strengthen air defense against drone attacks in Kharkiv Oblast. Continue to develop and deploy offensive drone capabilities to strike RF oil refineries and other strategic targets. Actively conduct aviation strikes against RF drone operator locations, as demonstrated by БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, to degrade RF UAV capabilities. Maintain high vigilance for incoming RF strike UAVs in Chernihiv and Kyiv Oblasts. Review and enhance counter-drone tactics based on RF claims of shooting down Ukrainian drones. Immediately conduct BDA on the destroyed S-300V SAM system in Zaporizhzhia to assess its impact on RF air defense and develop strategies to exploit this vulnerability. Prioritize air defense of civilian population centers in Kharkiv Oblast, given the recent fatal strikes. Maintain high vigilance for UAV activity in the Black Sea near Odesa. Ensure prompt and accurate public warnings for ballistic missile threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
High-Priority Intelligence Collection on RF-China-DPRK Military Cooperation, China Trade Impact, RF Negotiation Stance, RF Internal Issues (Military Pilot Murder, Belgorod Information Control, Burning Man Death, Scammers, Civilian Infrastructure Updates, Domestic History Initiatives, Austrian Opposition, Volgograd/Sochi Airport Incidents, Economic Stability, Metering Device Policy, Social Welfare Proposals (including working pensioners, family credit rates, educational loan forgiveness), Humanitarian Aid Collections, Fuel Market Stability, Russian-Chinese LED Screens, EEF Activities (VTB deposit growth, Saldo claims, "Taliban" attendance, Olympics participation, Putin's interactive presentation, Reshetnikov's economic assessment, Overchuk's meeting with Afghan Ambassador, Degtyarev's sports diplomacy comments), Foreign Currency Sales, Energy Sector Development, LNR Social Objects, Gazprom Legal Actions, Yakutia Mine Collapse, GTLC Baikal Aircraft, Simonenko Appeal, Bicycle Theft), and Dehumanization Tactics (AND NATO ISR, Trump-Zelenskyy Call, RF IO Narratives, Gaza City Imagery, China Military Parade, Zakharova Statements, Slutsky SCO Comments, Alexandrov Ensemble Cultural Diplomacy, Mi-38 Helicopters, Namejs 2025, Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, Azerbaijan/OSCE Minsk Group, Sergey Tsivilev EEF Interview, RF Milblogger Content (WarGonzo, Zvиздец Мангусту, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Kotsnews, Воин DV, Басурин о главном, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺), Epstein Video, Humanitarian Aid for Troops, RF Air Defense Claims, "Power of Siberia-2" non-confirmation, RF Ground Advances (Chervonaya Dibrova, Grigorievka), Saldo's Corruption Claims, RF Riverine Operations, RF's Largest Regrouping/New Offensive, Merz/Taurus IO, Putin's Vladivostok Tour, Aeroflot Airport Costs, Kotsnews/Macron IO, 155th Marine Brigade Museum, Aviakhab Book, SIM Card Regulations, Exoskeleton Tech, Romania/Moldova IO, SBU Agent Detention, Germany-Poland Troop Movement, RF Economic Stagnation/Ruble Devaluation, RF Units with HIV/Hepatitis, Mykolaiv Water Supply, Kyiv SIZO Investigation, DRG Capture in Bryansk, RF Special Forces Reconnaissance, Google/YouTube Outages, Janus Putkonen IO, RF Claims on Peace Desire, RF Nuclear Support Day IO, Filimonov IO): Immediately elevate collection requirements on RF-DPRK military cooperation and the impact of increased China-Russia trade. Collect and analyze RF statements regarding negotiation to understand shifts in strategic objectives. Monitor RF internal issues, including the Krasnodar military pilot murder, Belgorod information control measures, the Volgograd and Sochi airport restrictions, the reported increase in scammer activity, and potential exploitation of the Burning Man death, as well as the mine collapse in Yakutia, and the Simonenko appeal against dismissal, and bicycle theft in Khabarovsk Krai. Document and analyze RF dehumanization tactics. Conduct urgent, all-source collection on the Trump-Zelenskyy call agenda and messaging, including US Ambassador Monica Crowley's statement on Trump seeking "common ground" with RF. Analyze the role and rhetoric of the RF actor-volunteer Georgiy Teslya-Gerasimov. Monitor RF internal IO related to shortened hot water outages, the "Day of Domestic History" proposal, the Radiohead concert news, the new metering device verification policy, the new Duma proposal for family credit rates, the summer aid collection for Donbas children, Mironov's proposal for working pensioner indexation, educational loan forgiveness proposals, and LNR social object initiatives for broader IO objectives. Analyze RF IO leveraging the Austrian opposition leader's call for EU-RF cooperation. Analyze the use of Gaza City before/after imagery for its intended IO impact. Monitor RF IO regarding economic stability for its impact on public perception. Conduct deep analysis of RF IO on China's military parade and its links to Taiwan. Assess RF IO leveraging the US court ruling on Harvard grants. Monitor RF IO regarding the development of Russian-Chinese LED screens and the ongoing Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, including participant messaging (Putin's interactive presentation, Reshetnikov's economic assessment, Overchuk's meeting with Afghan Ambassador, Degtyarev's sports diplomacy comments), and the participation of the Mongolian Prime Minister. Place high priority on collecting and analyzing information regarding Lavrov's participation in the RF-GCC strategic dialogue. Continuously monitor RF official statements on military pension increases and broader economic policy. Analyze Slutsky's comments on Kallas and SCO. Monitor the Amsterdam court ruling against Gazprom. Monitor Zakharova's statements regarding Western "hybrid attacks" for insights into RF's counter-IO strategies. Collect information on the deployment of new Mi-38 Arctic helicopters. Monitor Maria Zakharova's statements regarding NATO's Namejs 2025 exercises. Prioritize collection on Maria Zakharova's statements concerning the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra and Ukrainian religious policy, as well as her comments on Azerbaijan's prisoner release and the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group. Intensify collection on RF milblogger content for granular details on combat operations, unit movements, and immediate IO responses. Monitor TASS reporting on the Epstein video for continued IO exploitation. Collect and analyze the full list and schedule of participants for the "Coalition of the Resolute" summit in Paris. Monitor RF IO related to the UK's transfer of frozen assets. Closely track and analyze Trump's public statements regarding Ukraine and RF. Monitor TASS amplification of Sarkozy's "historical mistake" statement and other similar narratives. Track any new information related to Rybar's "Eyes on Orbit" videos. Monitor ASTRA's report on China not confirming "Power of Siberia-2" and how RF counters this narrative. Analyze RF IO promoting militarization of Ukrainian children. Monitor for any further diplomatic friction for RF (Tashkent diplomatic note). Collect intelligence from UAF's captured RF assault trooper. Immediately prioritize collection on RF SVR claims regarding German Chancellor Merz and any alleged concealment of Taurus missile supplies to Ukraine. Monitor Putin's activities in Vladivostok, particularly interactions with military or industrial leaders. Closely track RF internal digital hygiene campaigns and any associated messaging. Analyze Kotsnews' IO on "Strength of Siberia-2" and the "fall of Macron" for its broader geopolitical messaging. Monitor TASS reports on Putin visiting the 155th Marine Brigade museum and interactive zone for IO implications. Conduct deeper analysis of "Aviakhab's" book to gauge its influence on military morale. Monitor Госдума discussions on SIM card ownership for potential internal security implications. Assess RF IO use of the "Ant" exoskeleton video for insights into technological priorities. Monitor Рыбарь's geopolitical IO regarding Romania and Moldova. Collect details on the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment's crowdfunding efforts. Collect detailed intelligence on the FSB's detention of an alleged SBU agent in Kherson, including methods of capture, alleged activities, and any intelligence obtained. Monitor RF IO regarding Germany's discussion of troop redeployment to Poland, specifically how it is framed to undermine NATO unity or justify RF actions. Intensify collection on all EEF reporting, particularly on any discussions of "technical stagnation" or ruble devaluation, to confirm and exploit RF economic vulnerabilities. Collect and analyze any further details or amplification of Z-propagandist Kashevarova's claims regarding the formation of units from military personnel with hepatitis and HIV, assessing its impact on RF public perception and international human rights concerns. Monitor any changes in Mykolaiv's water supply situation for civilian resilience indicators. Collect detailed information on the Kyiv SIZO investigation into the death of an inmate, looking for any broader implications for Ukrainian legal or security systems. Collect all-source intelligence on the claimed capture of a Ukrainian DRG in Bryansk Oblast, verifying details of the group, their mission, and any recovered equipment. Verify and assess the claimed sighting of a camouflaged enemy vehicle west of Novoselivka by RF special forces. Monitor reports of Google and YouTube outages for any potential RF cyber activity or IO exploitation. Monitor and analyze the content and reach of Janus Putkonen's IO. Collect and analyze RF statements regarding Ukraine and EU's alleged lack of desire for peace and RF's conditional readiness for dialogue in Istanbul. Monitor Rybar's "Nuclear Support Specialist Day" IO for insights into RF strategic messaging. Analyze Операция Z's (Russkaya Vesna) IO targeting "Filimonov." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Robust Counter-Propaganda and Strategic Communications (Kupyansk (CRITICAL)/Sieversk/Kamyshevakha/Novoselivka/Yanvarske, Donetsk Oblast (RF Offensive - CRITICAL), KHERSION (Karantynny Island), Civilian Casualties, Winter Narrative, RF-China-DPRK-Vietnam Alignment, Infrastructure Strikes, Internal Debates, Domestic Production, Ground Robotics, Putin's Statements, IPSO Army, Mobilization, Anti-Thermal Cloaks, RF IO "09 09 25" Graphic, UAF MFA Counter-Threats, Odesa Threat and Strikes, Frozen Conflict Narrative, Rubikon Drone Groups, RF Internal Economic/Tech IO, EEF Messaging, Zakharova Statements, Slutsky SCO Comments, Trump's Position, LNR Social Objects, Zelenskyy's Concessions Statement, Gazprom Ruling, Von der Leyen Plane Incident, GTLC Baikal Aircraft, Yakutia Mine, Mi-38 Helicopters, Namejs 2025, Simonenko Appeal, Religious Discord, Caucasus Diplomacy, FAB-3000 Strikes, RF EW Capabilities, RF Milblogger Content, Epstein Video, Humanitarian Aid for Troops, RF Air Defense Claims, "Power of Siberia-2" non-confirmation, RF Ground Advances (Chervonaya Dibrova, Grigorievka), Saldo's Corruption Claims, RF Riverine Operations, RF's Largest Regrouping/New Offensive, Merz/Taurus IO, Putin's Vladivostok Tour, Aeroflot Airport Costs, Kotsnews/Macron IO, 155th Marine Brigade Museum, Aviakhab Book, SIM Card Regulations, Exoskeleton Tech, Romania/Moldova IO, SBU Agent Detention, Germany-Poland Troop Movement, RF Economic Stagnation/Ruble Devaluation, RF Units with HIV/Hepatitis, Mykolaiv Water Supply, Kyiv SIZO Investigation, RF DRG Operations, RF Special Forces Reconnaissance, Google/YouTube Outages, Janus Putkonen IO, RF Claims on Peace Desire, RF Nuclear Support Day IO, Filimonov IO): Proactively disseminate verified information on RF attacks and high UAF interception rates. Immediately develop messaging to counter RF claims of gains in Kupyansk, Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, Yanvarske, Chervonaya Dibrova, and Grigorievka, providing factual context and highlighting UAF resilience with visual evidence. **Develop a comprehensive strategic communications plan to address the impending major RF offensive in Donetsk Oblast. Emphasize UAF readiness, the brutality of the RF attack, and the urgent need for sustained international support. Leverage RF successes against UAF motorized units near Pokrovsk to highlight brutality and underscore need for support. Proactively counter RF "difficult winter" narratives by showcasing preparedness and international support. Highlight RF's reliance on rogue/neutral states (China, DPRK, Vietnam, "Taliban") and internal issues. Utilize BDA from defense industry, fuel, railway, and civilian strikes (Kostiantynivka, Nikopol, Kharkiv university, Chuhuiv community, Odesa/Fontanka, Sloviansk, Pokrovsk, UAF UAV launch point, Kharkiv Oblast) to highlight RF war crimes. Address internal debates transparently (mobilization, exit for men, discussions on a "frozen conflict" scenario). Counter Putin's statements on Zelenskyy's legitimacy and meeting conditions, emphasizing Ukrainian sovereignty. Pre-emptively counter GUR's warning about RF IPSO army. Actively leverage the upcoming Trump-Zelenskyy-European leaders call to project high-level Western support, and directly counter any RF attempts to frame Trump's position as seeking "common ground" with Russia against Ukrainian interests. Actively counter RF's use of anti-thermal imaging cloaks. Prepare comprehensive counter-IO for any new RF cyber or information operations indicated by the "09 09 25" Apple logo graphic. Leverage the destruction of RF S-300 and radar for IO. Amplify the UAF MFA's strong response to Putin's threats. Immediately disseminate public warnings and protective measures for Odesa regarding incoming drone threats, demonstrating responsible governance and civilian protection, and provide rapid updates on current strike impact. Develop clear messaging regarding discussions on a "frozen conflict" scenario, emphasizing that such decisions rest with the Ukrainian President and that reconstruction support would be vital, to counter RF attempts to leverage this for its own narrative. Publicly highlight and counter the operational capabilities of new RF drone groups, such as "Rubikon," to raise awareness and foster resilience. Develop counter-narratives to RF internal IO regarding economic stability (fuel market, LED screens, EEF (VTB deposit growth, Sergey Tsivilev's interview, Putin's presentation, Reshetnikov's economic assessment), military pension increases, Far East energy funding, foreign currency sales, energy sector development, LNR social objects, educational loan forgiveness, Rosseti investments, Rosatom borrowing, Minfin stance on cash, GTLC Baikal aircraft, increased Russia-China flight frequency, Olympics participation, Aeroflot airport costs) to prevent the perception of RF strength and normalcy. Proactively address any RF attempts to use Lavrov's GCC dialogue for anti-Ukrainian or anti-Western narratives. Aggressively counter Maria Zakharova's new narratives on Ukraine's security guarantees being a "danger" to Europe and US missile sales undermining peace talks. Also counter Slutsky's claims of Western "hysteria" over SCO results. Reiterate Ukraine's rejection of foreign military intervention. Amplify Zelenskyy's statement that territorial concessions will lead to war in Europe. Highlight the Amsterdam court ruling against Gazprom as a win for Ukraine. Develop immediate counter-IO to Zakharova's claims regarding Von der Leyen's plane incident, emphasizing Russian disinformation tactics. If necessary, provide factual updates on the Yakutia mine collapse without amplifying Russian narratives. Counter RF IO leveraging the Simonenko appeal. Actively counter RF IO related to new Mi-38 Arctic helicopters by highlighting their limited military utility in the current conflict. Counter Maria Zakharova's statements regarding NATO's Namejs 2025 exercises by emphasizing NATO's defensive posture and the transparency of its drills. Develop immediate counter-IO to Maria Zakharova's accusations regarding the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, highlighting religious freedom in Ukraine and exposing RF's attempts to sow discord. Counter RF narratives on Azerbaijan and the OSCE Minsk Group by emphasizing Ukraine's sovereignty and condemning RF interference in regional affairs. Document and publicize the indiscriminate nature and destructive power of FAB-3000 strikes. Directly counter RF claims of EW superiority, particularly on the Zaporizhzhia front, by highlighting UAF adaptations and continued drone effectiveness. Actively monitor and counter narratives propagated by RF milbloggers, providing factual and timely rebuttals to their claims of RF success or UAF setbacks, and countering propaganda related to humanitarian aid for troops. CRITICAL: Develop and disseminate clear messaging to counter RF claims of UAF mining Karantynny Island (Kherson), framing it as RF pre-emptive justification for aggression. Highlight the capabilities demonstrated by "Shadow Unit" and other UAF units, and the 46th Brigade
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