Situation Report

SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - 040600Z SEP 25 (UPDATE 49)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: RF deep strikes continue to target Ukraine's defense industry (claimed strike on UAV/artillery electronics in Khmelnytskyi, claims of strikes on "Motor" aircraft repair plant in Lutsk and "Donmashstroy" in Kramatorsk, and now claims of Kalibr/Geran strikes on "Spetsoboronmash" plant near Kyiv Oblast border), and railway infrastructure (confirmed strikes in Kirovohrad). Civilian targeting remains high, with confirmed deadly artillery/FPV drone strikes on Kostiantynivka and sustained attacks on the Nikopol region. Ballistic missile threats are active in Ukraine, with a high-speed target confirmed over Sumy Oblast, and КАБ launches reported towards Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Ground operations are intensely focused on Sieversk and Kupyansk. RF continues to claim significant gains and even UAF surrenders in Kupyansk, while UAF actively denies these claims and demonstrates successful counter-actions. DeepState (UAF source) is now confirming RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk, though UAF maintains RF lacks "firm control" over the city center. RF claims of assaults on Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) and full control of Yanvarske, marking a significant westward push. UAF demonstrates tactical innovation with ground robotic complexes, secures additional air defense from Nordic/Baltic countries, and maintains significant domestic artillery/drone production. Diplomatic and information warfare efforts continue, with UAF securing further Western support and RF attempting to sow discord and amplify anti-Western narratives. Putin concluded his China visit, making several statements regarding Ukraine, NATO, and economic cooperation with China, projecting a dual message of "peace" vs. "military solution." RF is actively conducting artillery strikes in the Kharkiv direction, with a confirmed drone strike on a university. NATO ISR aircraft activity is reported near Kaliningrad/Belarus border, indicating heightened regional vigilance. European leaders, including Zelenskyy and Macron, are scheduled for a call with Trump, highlighting continued high-level diplomatic engagement. New reports confirm an RF strike on a UAF UAV operator's location in Kupyansk-Uzlovoy, and a new RF strike on a UAF UAV launch point for the 22nd Motorized Brigade. UAF continues to engage RF positions with drone-guided artillery/mortars. Trump has indicated he will speak with Putin in the coming days to "determine what will happen" regarding Russia and Ukraine, though later reports clarify Trump meant a call with Zelenskyy, not Putin, but US Ambassador Monica Crowley now states Trump wants to find common ground with RF in various spheres during talks with Putin. RF IO is heavily pushing narratives of Ukrainian corruption. New RF drone group activity in Chernihiv region, southwestern direction. UAF has successfully downed a "Gerbera with a rear-view camera" drone (likely an RF reconnaissance asset). UAF successfully destroyed RF D-20 artillery and a 2S3 self-propelled howitzer with drone strikes. New Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast. UAF special forces (Shybenyk Squad, 2nd Assault Company, Kraken) are conducting operations in Sumy Oblast. RF continues to use BM-21 Grad MLRS. RF claims to have returned Putin to Russia from China. Ukraine launches its largest port investment project, indicating economic resilience and long-term planning. Ukrainian forces report Russians are using anti-thermal imaging cloaks for infiltration tactics, particularly targeting drone operators and mortar teams. Remaining 5 of 14 Shahed drones are still active (threat neutralized). RF IO emphasizes Putin's conditional willingness to meet Zelenskyy in Moscow, contrasting with Zelenskyy's statements on Ukraine's "Korean Scenario" and the need for US security guarantees. RF IO also focuses on internal control in Belgorod concerning UAV attack information. UAF claims significant destruction of RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reports a power outage in Krasnodar Krai due to a UAV strike. UAF acknowledges RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk. RF IO is leveraging discussion of a "frozen conflict" for Ukraine. RF IO is pushing a narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. RF drones originating from Donetsk Oblast are now reported on course for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF sources continue to claim significant advances in Kupyansk, with UAF sources also confirming RF infiltration and presence, albeit noting a lack of "firm control" over the city center, and indicating fragmented UAF defense. RF UAV group detected in Southern Sumy Oblast, moving west. RF UAVs on course for Poltava Oblast. Several groups of RF UAVs detected in northern Kharkiv Oblast (Chuhuiv Raion). UAF MFA responded to Putin's threats, emphasizing "no regional centers captured in 3.5 years of war." RF military transport aircraft confirmed arriving in North Korea, with coffins draped in North Korean flags visible, suggesting potential military assistance or return of personnel. Explosion heard in Chuhuiv community, Kharkiv Oblast. RF sources claim a UAF Armored Vehicle Launched Bridge (AVLB) was hit and destroyed. This video is miscaptioned and shows a destroyed RF engineering vehicle, likely by UAF forces. RF reports five Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Rostov Oblast. New groups of RF UAVs are inbound from the Black Sea towards Odesa/Fontanka. The air raid alert for Odesa and Chornomorsk has been lifted following successful UAF interception of all incoming Shahed UAVs. The Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) continues in Vladivostok, with RF officials promoting economic stability and development. RF is actively promoting a rise in military pensions and a continued increase in the 2026 budget, signaling long-term commitment to military personnel welfare. RF is also discussing financing for new energy generation in the Far East, and plans for an all-Russia energy meeting and a Primorye branch of Rosenergoatom, aiming for 25% low-carbon generation in the Far East. RF IO is now actively countering claims of Western support for Ukraine, with Maria Zakharova stating that Ukraine's security guarantees are "guarantees of danger" for Europe, and that US missile sales contradict settlement talks. RF "Russkaya Vesna" is showcasing large-scale social object creation in Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) on "presidential order", including sports complexes and maternity hospitals. Mongolian Prime Minister has arrived in Vladivostok for the EEF. RF is also paying close attention to NATO's Namejs 2025 exercises in Latvia, with Maria Zakharova warning of the need for "detailed analysis." Colonelcassad reports a FAB-3000 strike on a UAF Forward Operating Base (FOB), potentially a troop concentration point, using drone footage. Air raid alerts lifted in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Russian Ministry of Energy Head, Sergey Tsivilev, is giving an interview at the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF). "Two Majors" (RF milblogger) posted a video titled "No obstacles for the Guard!" showing aerial footage of military engagement, explosions, military vehicles on a road (one damaged/destroyed), and damaged buildings. This is consistent with ongoing combat operations, particularly in urban or semi-urban areas. Russian milbloggers "Two Majors" and "Parisan56rus" are providing footage from the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, reinforcing ongoing combat activity in that sector. Russian milblogger "Operation Z" (via Russkaya Vesna) released a video on "Electronic Warfare (EW) strike: invisible heroes repel Madjar's drone attacks, saving fighters' lives on the Zaporizhzhia front." This demonstrates RF intent to highlight their EW capabilities and counter-drone operations. UAF General Staff provides updated estimated RF combat losses, indicating sustained attrition across multiple categories. TASS reports one fatality from a rock collapse at a mine in Yakutia. "Fighterbomber" (RF milblogger) posts a generic "Good morning, country!" image, a typical morale/IO post. "Paratrooper's Diary" (RF milblogger) provides a general summary. RBC-Ukraine posts video and images of the aftermath of the night's drone attack on Odesa, showing emergency services response and damage. This confirms impacts and highlights UAF civilian protection efforts. NEW: Air raid threat for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast has been lifted, with UAF reporting two UAVs shot down over the region. RF sources claim UAF forces are mining houses on Karantynny Island (Kherson) in preparation for a Russian advance. RF Ministry of Defense claims 46 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions and the Black Sea. RBC-Ukraine reports the list and schedule of participants for the "Coalition of the Resolute" summit in Paris. The Volgograd airport, previously under restrictions, has lifted them. "Operation Z" (via Russkaya Vesna) provides a video of "Important help from RVvoenkor readers to fighters advancing on Pokrovsk and Dnepropetrovsk region," showing thermal monoculars and communication equipment. Zelenskyy states that "territorial concessions by Ukraine will open the way for Putin to attack Europe." ASTRA publishes images of the aftermath of the night's RF attack on Odesa from the State Emergency Service of Ukraine. Oleksandr Vilkul reports that the situation in Kryvyi Rih is "controlled" as of the morning of 04.09.25.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Black Sea Oil Spill: Remains valid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Formaldehyde Levels (Kalush): Remains valid. Fire in Kalush from night attack now extinguished, suggests environmental hazard mitigated for now, but underlying risk remains. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
• Russian Temperature Forecast: Above-normal temperatures are expected across most of Russia this and next week. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Mine Collapse (Yakutia): Rock collapse at a mine in Yakutia, one injured, 55 evacuated. This is a localized industrial incident. TASS confirms one fatality from the Yakutia mine collapse. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Night Attack Aftermath (Odesa): Aftermath footage shows damaged buildings, likely from fire or explosion. Air quality in affected areas likely poor due to smoke. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Kryvyi Rih Status: Situation reported as "controlled," suggesting no immediate environmental threat from military action. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF:
  • Air/Missile Assets: Actively employing long-range precision air-launched weapons (КАБ on Donetsk and Sumy, new КАБ launches towards Zaporizhzhia), attack UAVs (Lancet on UAF radar, FPV drones on checkpoint), tactical aviation (southeast and northeast directions), and conducting drone strikes (Kharkiv direction, Nikopol region, Kharkiv city). Reports strikes on UAF UAV/artillery electronics in Khmelnytskyi. Claims of strikes on "Motor" aircraft repair plant in Lutsk and "Donmashstroy" in Kramatorsk. Artillery (Msta-S, BM-21 Grad MLRS) actively employed in Kharkiv direction. Claims of strike on UAF UAV operator location in Kupyansk-Uzlovoy. RF animated strike scheme details alleged widespread drone strikes across multiple regions. Claims of Kalibr/Geran strikes on "Spetsoboronmash" plant near Kyiv Oblast border. UAV group in Chernihiv region moving southwest. Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast (including Pokrovsky district, Belozerske/Dobropillya) with 5 remaining active. UAV group from Kharkiv to Donetsk Oblast. UAV group from Donetsk to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAV group in Southern Sumy Oblast, moving west. RF UAVs on course for Poltava Oblast. Several groups of RF UAVs detected in northern Kharkiv Oblast (Chuhuiv Raion). Reports a power outage in Krasnodar Krai due to a UAV strike. Groups of RF UAVs inbound from the Black Sea towards Odesa/Fontanka (approx. 14 Shaheds) were successfully intercepted. RF claims five Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Rostov Oblast. "Rubikon" air defense combat groups operating various drones (Leleka-100, RQ-35 Heidrun, Vector, VT-260) over Ukrainian fields, indicating enhanced and diverse drone operations, potentially for reconnaissance or target acquisition for air defense. New claim of a successful ЛМУР strike on a UAF UAV launch point for the 22nd Motorized Brigade, indicating continued targeting of UAF drone infrastructure. A new RF UAV group is currently active in northern Sumy Oblast, heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. Ballistic missile threat from the northeast. High-speed target detected on Sumy. UAF Air Force reports КАБ launches towards Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Colonelcassad reports a FAB-3000 strike (unguided aerial bomb, 3000kg warhead) on a UAF PVD (Forward Operating Base). The video shows the bomb's trajectory and massive explosion in a village, indicating indiscriminate targeting of structures. "Operation Z" video highlights RF EW capabilities against UAF drones, likely to protect ground forces, specifically on the Zaporizhzhia front. This suggests active counter-drone measures are a key RF focus. NEW: RF Ministry of Defense claims 46 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions and the Black Sea, suggesting an active defensive posture against UAF cross-border strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ground Forces: Strong offensive focus on Sieversk (maps indicate ongoing movements). Asserting control of "about half" of Kupyansk, directly contradicted by UAF but also met with UAF counter-action against flag-planting assault groups. DeepState is now confirming RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk, though UAF still denies firm control of the city center, only small group infiltration. Reports of RF successfully destroying UAF motorized units near Pokrovsk with casualties. Claims liberation of Kamyshevakha. RF claims of assault on Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) and full control of Yanvarske, indicating a westward push. Persistent attempts at infiltration (Pokrovsk axis). Engages fortified positions. Putin claims all RF groupings are successfully advancing. Conducted deadly artillery/FPV drone strikes on Kostiantynivka. Claims a UAF unit surrendered in Kupyansk, but this is visually unconfirmed and contradicted by UAF. RF FPV drone strike on a checkpoint claimed, indicating continued tactical drone use. RF forces are employing anti-thermal imaging cloaks to facilitate covert infiltration, particularly targeting UAF drone operators and mortar teams. RF utilizes drones for surveillance and targeting, with one video showing a 2S22 "Bogdana" self-propelled howitzer firing, despite a likely miscaptioned audio track. RF engineering vehicle (likely AVLB) destroyed by UAF forces, though RF attempts to misattribute it to UAF losses for IO. RF 506th Regiment "Otvazhnye" reportedly engaged in combat around Pokrovsk, destroying enemy equipment. RF "Russkaya Vesna" is showcasing large-scale social object creation in Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) on "presidential order", including sports complexes and maternity hospitals, to demonstrate normalcy and development in occupied territories. FAB-3000 strike on a UAF PVD (Forward Operating Base), indicating an attempt to target troop concentrations or fortified positions with high-yield unguided munitions. "Two Majors" video ("No obstacles for the Guard!") shows aerial combat footage including explosions, military vehicles (one damaged), and damaged buildings, indicative of sustained and intense ground operations in contested areas. The caption suggests a morale-boosting message for RF Guard units. "Two Majors" and "Partizan56rus" are posting from the Pokrovsk direction, confirming continued RF pressure and combat in that sector. NEW: Vladimir Saldo claims UAF are mining houses on Karantynny Island (Kherson) in anticipation of an RF advance, indicating RF intelligence believes UAF is preparing defensive measures and suggesting potential RF ground operations in the Kherson direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • C2/Intelligence: Coordinated deep strike and ground operations continue. RF IO is highly active, consolidating anti-Western narratives, promoting RF resilience and diplomatic influence (Congo, China, DPRK, Vietnam, SCO, Aliyev, Trump, new invitation for Kim Jong Un to visit Russia, leveraging Trump's comments on the war's difficulty, CSTO exercises, Slovak PM Fico's statements on EU isolation, subsidized Moscow-Pyongyang flights, convicts Bryansk infiltrators, Rybar summary, Xi Jinping & Putin challenge West IO, Austrian opposition leader comments, new strategic dialogue with GCC), while also addressing internal security issues (Rosfinmonitoring designations, Kursk official release, asset seizures, blogger arrests, Melitopol TG admins imprisoned, Beslan commemoration, humanitarian aid collections, agricultural development, increased wages, CSTO exercises for drone expertise, Belgorod information control, Duma on Max Messenger, promoting humanitarian medical evacuation from China, convicts Bryansk infiltrators, Far Eastern surcharge extension, "T Plus" investment plans, ERA-GLONASS connected cars, proposing a "Day of Domestic History", Russia metering device verification, Sochi airport restrictions lifted, new Duma proposal for family credit rates, investment in Russky Island), promoting technological advancements (unmanned trams, Rosptrebnadzor smartphone assistance, robot-assisted pipe diagnostics, Russian-Chinese LED screens, gold tokenization, remote sales of energy drinks and Russian wine), and exploiting Ukrainian internal debates (Telegram, mobilization, border evasion, alleged UAF drone operator desertions, Kupyansk claims, Gorlovka mayor issues, Polish deportations, Ukrainian customs corruption, Poroshenko's Telegram ban stance, Alex Parker Returns inflammatory rhetoric against "Khokhols", derogatory content on UAF female servicewomen, UAF drone request as a sign of weakness, ex-Azerbaijani MiG-29 as disinformation, UAF discussions on exit for men, Zelenskyy sanctions Shufutinsky, Kupyansk "subsidized" narrative, UAF discussion of frozen conflict). Actively training personnel with FPV drones (as discussed in "Espanola" commander interview). Actively using legal services to assist military personnel seeking to leave service. Publicly crowdfunding for drones. Putin's press conference was a major IO event, making several statements on Ukraine's sovereignty, NATO, and peace talks. New messaging from Putin about "light in the tunnel" for settlement while being ready for military solution, blaming the West for failed peace, claiming all RF advances are successful, and questioning UAF manning. New reports of moldy rations suggest potential internal logistics and morale issues. RF military culture shows dehumanizing elements. RF IO is now actively deflecting Trump's "conspiracy" claims and using highly derogatory language against Zelenskyy. Trump's planned call with Putin is being amplified, though later clarified by UAF sources as a call with Zelenskyy, but US Ambassador Monica Crowley now states Trump wants to find common ground with RF in various spheres during talks with Putin. RF IO is promoting communistic social policies, celebrating infrastructure in Bryansk region, and promoting industrial self-sufficiency. RF is utilizing nationalistic cultural events (Vladivostok Corridor of Glory, Alexandrov Ensemble rehearsal for China trip) for morale. RF IO is propagating conspiracy theories about opposition deaths in Germany. RF is also leveraging historical narratives (WWII victors) to assert influence over European capitals. RF IO continues to push narratives about UK sanctions being cynical and deflect accusations of child abduction. RF IO is also using conspiracy theories (Epstein) to undermine Western institutions. RF IO is leveraging UAF statements on "frozen conflict" for Ukraine. RF IO is pushing a narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. RF IO is using light-hearted content, and providing daily news summaries. RF IO using a photo of Putin at a podium in a Chinese-style building to project diplomatic success. RF IO claims Kupyansk was "subsidized" and a reminder of a "totalitarian regime" to de-legitimize Ukrainian control. RF IO also mocks Zelenskyy's actions. RF actor-volunteer interview reinforces morale. RF IO uses an ambiguous graphic with Apple logo and date "09 09 25", potentially hinting at future IO or cyber activity aimed at the West. The death of a Russian citizen at Burning Man has potential for IO exploitation. RF IO also includes civilian cultural news (Radiohead concert) to project normalcy. Volgograd airport restrictions suggest a potential air security incident (e.g., UAV attack) that RF is controlling information about. Gaza City before/after video is RF IO aiming to portray Western hypocrisy or the devastating impact of conflict in other regions. RF IO highlights economic stability (low unemployment rate, fuel market stability). RF IO is actively promoting China's military parade and linking it to Taiwan's fears, emphasizing a strong anti-Western axis. RF IO is leveraging the US court ruling on Harvard grants to highlight perceived Western internal disarray. The EEF is a major platform for RF IO to project economic and diplomatic strength, with participants queuing up, signaling high interest. The strategic dialogue with the GCC is an example of RF's capability to expand diplomatic influence beyond its traditional partners. The focus on military pension indexation and future budget increases for pensioners of "power structures" is a key internal IO effort to maintain military and security force morale and loyalty, projecting a long-term commitment to their welfare. Discussions at the EEF on securing funding for Far East energy generation highlight RF's focus on internal economic development and resource management. RF IO is now actively countering claims of Western support for Ukraine, with Maria Zakharova stating that Ukraine's security guarantees are "guarantees of danger" for Europe, and that US missile sales contradict settlement talks. RF is also reinforcing internal messaging on pension indexation for working pensioners. RF is openly discussing potential revisions to foreign currency revenue sales for exporters, indicating careful economic management. RF is promoting its energy sector development, including plans for an all-Russia energy meeting and the creation of a Primorye branch of Rosenergoatom, aiming for increased low-carbon generation in the Far East. RF is using narratives about the SCO summit causing "hysteria" in the West to further its anti-Western messaging. New RF internal security threats from scammers are being reported. New proposals regarding educational loan forgiveness for strategic sectors and Rosseti investments in the Far East show internal economic focus. The Amsterdam court denying Gazprom's appeal is a legal setback for RF, but the Khabarovsk governor's openness to ExxonMobil indicates long-term economic strategy. Rosatom's plan to attract borrowed funds for NPPs from 2028 and the Minfin's stance against abandoning cash also indicate long-term economic planning. Gold tokenization is a new technological/economic initiative. The rehearsal footage of the Alexandrov Ensemble for a China trip highlights cultural diplomacy. Maria Zakharova is actively refuting Western reports of a "hybrid attack" on Ursula von der Leyen's plane, attributing such claims to Western "desperation." The GTLC contract for 50 "Baikal" aircraft for "Aerokhimflot" signals continued internal development of civil aviation. The mine collapse in Yakutia is a localized industrial incident that has no direct military impact but could be exploited for internal IO. TASS reports that a former deputy head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations in Kuban, Simonenko, is appealing his dismissal from a pre-trial detention center, indicating continued internal legal actions. The Mongolian Prime Minister's arrival at the EEF further expands RF's diplomatic outreach at the event. TASS also reports the Ministry of Emergency Situations will receive nine new Arctic Mi-38 helicopters by the end of the year, signaling a focus on Arctic capabilities and new technology. Maria Zakharova, at the EEF, stated Russia is closely monitoring NATO's "Namejs 2025" exercises in Latvia, calling for "detailed analysis" of such "autumn exacerbations," indicating heightened vigilance and a potential for counter-IO. Maria Zakharova, at the EEF, commented on the Ukrainian Ministry of Culture's actions at the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, calling it an "outrage against the feelings of believers," indicating an intent to fuel religious discord. Her statements on Azerbaijan and the OSCE Minsk Group confirm an intent to project Russian diplomatic influence and assert control over regional narratives. Sergey Tsivilev's interview at the EEF provides a platform for RF to project economic strength and energy policy, indicating continued focus on long-term national development. "Fighterbomber" (RF milblogger) posts a generic "Good morning, country!" image, a typical morale/IO post. "Paratrooper's Diary" (RF milblogger) provides a general summary. NEW: VTB Deputy Chairman Alexander Pakhomov announced at the EEF that Russian bank deposits are expected to grow by 17% in 2025, exceeding 67 trillion rubles, projecting economic stability and confidence. RF sources ("Operation Z" via Russkaya Vesna) are showcasing humanitarian aid (thermal monoculars, communication equipment) being delivered to troops advancing on Pokrovsk and Dnepropetrovsk region, for IO purposes, to highlight support for frontline units. TASS reports on the "missing minute" from the Epstein video, indicating continued RF IO leveraging Western conspiracy theories. Basurin o Glavnom (RF milblogger) posts "DAYinHISTORY" with a photo of a decorated officer, likely for historical-nationalistic IO and morale-boosting purposes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF:
    • Air Defense: Operating under intense pressure, successfully intercepting a high volume of drones and missiles, but with confirmed fatalities and infrastructure damage (Kostiantynivka, Nikopol region, Kirovohrad). Has secured additional air defense systems from Nordic/Baltic countries, indicating continued efforts to bolster capabilities. Confirmed a Molniya UAV hit a university in Kharkiv. A new RF UAV group is active in Chernihiv region moving southwest. UAF successfully downed a "Gerbera" reconnaissance drone. Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast (including Pokrovsky district, Belozerske/Dobropillya) with 9 of 14 drones reportedly intercepted or diverted. UAV group from Kharkiv to Donetsk Oblast. UAV group from Donetsk to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAV group in Southern Sumy Oblast moving west, requiring UAF response. RF UAVs on course for Poltava Oblast. Several groups of RF UAVs detected in northern Kharkiv (Chuhuiv Raion). Reports a power outage in Krasnodar Krai due to a UAV strike. UAF claims significant destruction of RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. An explosion was heard in Chuhuiv community, Kharkiv Oblast, likely requiring UAF air defense response. Groups of RF UAVs inbound from the Black Sea towards Odesa/Fontanka (approx. 14 Shaheds) were all successfully intercepted, neutralizing the threat to the critical port infrastructure. RF claims five Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Rostov Oblast, suggesting UAF counter-attacks into RF airspace. All recent incoming RF UAV threats against Odesa/Chornomorsk, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Sumy, Poltava, and Chuhuiv Raion have been successfully neutralized by UAF air defense, with threats reported as "Відбій загрози." This demonstrates effective and rapid response capabilities. A new RF UAV group is currently active in northern Sumy Oblast, heading towards Chernihiv Oblast, requiring UAF air defense response. Air raid alerts are active across Ukraine due to ballistic missile threats from the northeast. UAF Air Force reports a high-speed target on Sumy. UAF Air Force reports КАБ launches towards Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast air raid alert has been lifted, indicating successful neutralization of the most recent threat. NEW: Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration reports two UAVs were shot down over the oblast, indicating successful interception of RF aerial threats in that region. Air Force Command confirms "All Clear" for the previous threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Ground Forces: Maintaining defensive posture under intense pressure in Sieversk and Kupyansk. Denying RF claims of control in Kupyansk, with new video showing successful UAF counter-action against flag-planting RF assault group. DeepState is now confirming RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk, though UAF still denies firm control of the city center, only small group infiltration. Repelling RF forces near Tovste. Employing tactical deception and actively countering enemy infiltration attempts (Pokrovsk axis). Demonstrated effectiveness with FPV drones against personnel and UAVs. Pioneering ground robotics for combat, evacuation, and logistics (3rd Assault Brigade "NC13"). Actively conducting medical evacuations and saving wounded. Destroying RF artillery, vehicles, antennas, and infantry with drone and artillery strikes. Successful strike on RF UAV warehouse. Successfully engaging RF armored vehicles in Zaporizhzhia direction with drone and artillery fire. UAF highlights the dedication of volunteer tankers. UAF Presidential Brigade drone footage shows successful targeting and destruction of RF defensive positions/fortifications. UAF drone destroys RF vehicle. UAF continues to engage and destroy RF assets near Pokrovsk. UAF drone strikes have successfully destroyed a D-20 artillery gun and a 2S3 Akatsiya self-propelled howitzer, and struck fortified positions. UAF special forces (Shybenyk Squad, 2nd Assault Company, Kraken) are conducting "rusorez" operations in Sumy Oblast, indicating active ground defense and potential offensive actions. UAF forces are actively engaging RF positions with artillery and drone strikes, as evidenced by thermal imaging footage. UAF forces are observing and adapting to RF use of anti-thermal imaging cloaks for infiltration tactics, particularly aimed at hunting drone operators and mortar teams. UAF drone footage shows significant damage to civilian infrastructure in Pokrovsk, as well as documentation of damaged military vehicles. UAF operates memorial sites for fallen soldiers, documented by RF sources, reinforcing internal cohesion and remembrance. UAF forces successfully destroyed a Russian engineering vehicle (likely AVLB), demonstrating effective counter-mobility operations. UAF General Staff reports an additional +840 RF personnel losses, +4 AFVs, +43 artillery systems, +2 MLRS, +2 anti-aircraft systems, +261 UAVs, +22 cruise missiles, +92 vehicles & fuel tanks. This reflects sustained high-intensity combat and successful UAF engagements. NEW: "Підрозділ Shadow" (Shadow Unit) posts a video of a "heavy drop," likely depicting a drone dropping ordnance on an RF target, indicating continued UAF offensive drone operations. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 487 strikes on 11 settlements in the oblast over the past day, highlighting sustained RF pressure on ground forces and civilian infrastructure. UAF continues to document RF strikes and damage (Astra/DSNS photos from Odesa). Oleksandr Vilkul reports the situation in Kryvyi Rih as "controlled," indicating stable ground conditions in that sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Naval Forces: Demonstrated capability to conduct successful strikes against RF Black Sea Fleet assets. Ukraine has launched its largest port investment project, indicating a focus on economic resilience and maritime infrastructure development. Groups of RF UAVs inbound from the Black Sea towards Odesa/Fontanka (approx. 14 Shaheds) were all successfully intercepted, neutralizing the threat to the critical port infrastructure. RBC-Ukraine video and photos show the aftermath of drone attacks on Odesa, with firefighters responding, indicating damage but also effective emergency response. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Information Environment: Actively engaging in diplomatic efforts for support (Zelenskyy in Denmark, joint drone/missile plant, new missile fuel production, securing additional air defense, engagement with Trump, Nordic-Baltic Eight meeting, US agreement on subsoil projects, Sybiha's response to Putin, scheduled call with Trump for European leaders including Zelenskyy and Macron, UK Defense Minister's statements on troop plans, Trump's planned call with Putin - clarified as a call with Zelenskyy, not Putin, Macron's statements on security guarantees, Zelenskyy/Macron joint media statements, Trump's special envoy Witkoff in Paris for "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting, Zelenskyy on "Korean scenario", Johnston on war ending by Christmas, Rubio on Trump/Israel, Ukraine's largest port investment project, Ukraine parliament on temporary booking for defense industry, Zelenskyy on Europe's insufficient guarantees, Zelenskyy on winter threat from Putin, UAF MFA response to Putin's threats, UAF discusses frozen conflict scenario pragmatically, Zelenskyy's statement on territorial concessions leading to war in Europe), implementing internal reforms (Defence City, mobilization, returning state land, prosecuting evasion schemes, SBU detaining agitators, NAZK anti-corruption guide, mobilization regulations for critical enterprises), recruiting drone operators, bolstering morale (torchlight ceremony, supporting military families, meetings with POW/missing families in Kirovohrad, highlighting combat medics, interviewing commanders, new TAF Bonus system for incentivizing drone operators, highlighting volunteer tankers, highlighting 58th Motorized Brigade tanker, RBC-Ukraine fundraising for UAF batteries, Zaporizhzhia housing restoration, Coordination Headquarters meeting with 78th Air Assault Regiment families, captured RF soldier interview, UAF IO on Russian restrictions, UAF IO using Trump meme, morale-boosting messages for "rusorez", memorials for fallen soldiers), and countering RF narratives (Kupyansk denial (now refined to acknowledge infiltration attempts), documenting war crimes, rejecting territory exchange, GUR warning of RF IPSO army, countering RF spin on Zelenskyy's "Coalition of Willing" statement). Providing humanitarian aid (Berdyansk). Promoting domestic defense production (Bohdana, Vampire drones). New statement of resolve to "achieve all goals with weapons" if peace terms are not met. Responding to air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia. Focusing on Kyiv housing/infrastructure restoration. Reporting fire extinguished in Kalush after night attack. UAF is using air situation maps to inform the public. UAF is also engaging in discussions about future regulations for men exiting Ukraine, with a confirmed statement from Podolyak. UAF is using the destroyed S-300 and radar for IO. UAF is issuing urgent warnings about incoming drone threats to Odesa, demonstrating responsive public information sharing. The successful neutralization of all incoming UAVs targeting Odesa/Chornomorsk and other regions provides a strong counter-narrative to RF aggression and highlights UAF defensive capabilities. UAF leadership is now openly discussing a "frozen conflict" scenario with a pragmatic outlook, while reiterating presidential decision-making and international support for reconstruction. UAF Air Force is providing real-time public updates on new enemy UAV activity, demonstrating transparency and operational awareness. Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration issues an air raid alert. UAF Air Force announces ballistic missile threat from the northeast. UAF Air Force reports a high-speed target on Sumy. RBC-Ukraine amplifies the ballistic threat and high-speed target warnings, providing immediate public information. Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration lifts the air raid alert. UAF General Staff's daily update on RF losses is a key component of UAF strategic communications, demonstrating RF attrition and UAF effectiveness. NEW: RBC-Ukraine posts an image and caption highlighting UAF estimated RF combat losses (840 personnel). RBC-Ukraine also reports on the "Coalition of the Resolute" summit in Paris, with a list and schedule of participants, demonstrating continued Western diplomatic efforts for Ukraine. Operational ZSU reports Zelenskyy's statement that "territorial concessions by Ukraine will open the way for Putin to attack Europe," for internal and international audience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Counter-Intelligence/Anti-Corruption: SBU actively detaining agent groups (new report of "agitators"). General Prosecutor preventing illegal property transfers for educational institutions, demonstrating effective domestic governance and security efforts, and exposing mobilization evasion schemes. NAZK's guide against corruption indicates continued focus on internal governance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:

  • Sustained and Adaptive Multi-Domain Strikes (Targeting Defense Industry/Fuel/Logistics/Personnel/Civilians - now including "Motor" aircraft repair plant in Lutsk, "Donmashstroy" in Kramatorsk, UAF Electronics in Khmelnytskyi, new UAV wave towards Kyiv and Kharkiv - with a hit on a Kharkiv university, drone/artillery strikes on Kharkiv Direction, Nikopol region, and railway infrastructure in Kirovohrad, with civilian targeting in Kostiantynivka, and potentially an automobile bridge in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, now also targeting UAF UAV operator locations in Kupyansk-Uzlovoy, and "Spetsoboronmash" plant near Kyiv Oblast border, and new Shahed threats in Donetsk Oblast and towards Belozerske/Dobropillya, and КАБ strikes on Sumy Oblast, new UAV group Kharkiv to Donetsk Oblast, new UAV group Donetsk to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, new UAV group in Southern Sumy moving west, and UAV strike on substation in Krasnodar Krai, NEW UAVs towards Poltava and northern Kharkiv Oblast (Chuhuiv Raion), and NEW Shaheds towards Odesa/Fontanka with confirmed successful interceptions and neutralization of threat, AND NEW RF strike on a UAF UAV launch point for the 22nd Motorized Brigade, AND NEW RF UAV group from northern Sumy to Chernihiv Oblast, NEW ballistic missile launches, NEW high-speed target on Sumy, NEW КАБ launches on Zaporizhzhia, NEW FAB-3000 strike on a UAF PVD): RF demonstrates a confirmed capability to conduct persistent missile and drone strikes specifically targeting Ukraine's defense industry (now including electronics for UAVs and artillery, aircraft repair plants, a defense plant near Kyiv Oblast border), fuel infrastructure, and railway infrastructure (confirmed Kirovohrad strikes). They are inflicting civilian casualties (Kostiantynivka, Nikopol region) and using FPV drones against civilian transport and tactical military targets (checkpoint). They are able to sustain a high tempo of air attacks, now expanding air-launched КАБ strikes to Donetsk and Sumy. They claim successful strikes on UAF military infrastructure (Lancet on radar, drones/artillery on Kharkiv dugouts/mortar, UAV operator location, a Molniya UAV hit a Kharkiv university, and a UAV launch point). They claim to be using "modernized" drones. New UAV wave towards Kyiv and Kharkiv confirms continued and adaptive long-range strike capabilities. RF provides animated strike schemes to highlight this capability for IO purposes. RF continues to utilize BM-21 Grad MLRS for indirect fire support. RF can identify and target UAF artillery, as evidenced by the UAF drone striking the RF 2S19 Msta-S. RF also uses drones for reconnaissance and targeting of its own artillery (e.g., 2S22 "Bogdana"). The UAV strike inside Krasnodar Krai demonstrates RF is also vulnerable to such attacks. The extension of UAV operations to Poltava Oblast and renewed activity in northern Kharkiv (Chuhuiv Raion) indicate a continued wide-area aerial threat. The new large group of UAVs (approx. 14 Shaheds) targeting Odesa/Fontanka from the Black Sea demonstrates a persistent and significant aerial threat to southern Ukraine, including critical port infrastructure, though these were all successfully intercepted. RF capabilities also extend to air defense, as evidenced by the claim of destroying five Ukrainian UAVs over Rostov Oblast. UAF has successfully neutralized all incoming UAV threats, confirming strong defensive capabilities against these strikes. RF is also demonstrating enhanced and diversified drone operations, including combat groups for air defense, utilizing captured and indigenous drones (Leleka-100, RQ-35 Heidrun, Vector, VT-260) for reconnaissance and target acquisition. The new UAV group from northern Sumy to Chernihiv Oblast shows continued capability to project aerial threats into border regions, likely for reconnaissance or to probe air defenses. The new ballistic missile threat and high-speed target over Sumy indicate RF retains the capability to launch fast-moving, difficult-to-intercept missiles. The КАБ launches towards Zaporizhzhia confirm continued use of guided aerial bombs. The FAB-3000 strike indicates the use of high-yield unguided munitions to target suspected troop concentrations or fortified positions, accepting collateral damage. "Operation Z" video emphasizes RF Electronic Warfare (EW) capabilities against UAF drones on the Zaporizhzhia front, confirming their ability to disrupt and defeat UAF UAV operations. NEW: RF Ministry of Defense claims to have shot down 46 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions and the Black Sea, demonstrating a multi-regional air defense capability against UAF cross-border strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Concentrated Ground Offensive (Sieversk, Kupyansk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, Yanvarske, Kherson) with Adaptable & Hybrid Tactics (Including Anti-Thermal Cloaks): RF can concentrate forces for localized gains, maintain intense pressure in urban environments (Kupyansk with new RF claims of significant control, contested by UAF, but UAF shows counter-action against flag-planting, and RF claims UAF surrender. DeepState now confirms RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk, though UAF still denies firm control of the city center, only small group infiltration. Reports of RF successfully destroying UAF motorized units near Pokrovsk with casualties.), and adapt tactics to include unconventional infiltration methods (e.g., small groups in Pokrovsk) and utilizing pack animals for logistics. They continue localized offensive actions on multiple axes, with maps indicating significant pressure on Sieversk. New claims of liberating Kamyshevakha indicate continued efforts for localized gains in Donetsk Oblast, leveraging night advances through heavily fortified areas. RF claims of assaulting Novoselivka and full control of Yanvarske signal a westward push into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Putin's claim of "all groupings successfully advancing" is an IO effort, but consistent with continued offensive actions. RF is actively using drones for reconnaissance and targeting in frontline operations (Espanola commander interview). RF forces are employing anti-thermal imaging cloaks to facilitate covert infiltration, specifically targeting UAF drone operators and mortar teams, demonstrating an adaptive response to UAF tactical advantages. The destruction of an RF engineering vehicle (AVLB) by UAF forces, despite RF attempts to misattribute it, highlights RF's continued use of engineering support for ground operations and their vulnerability. The reported engagement of the RF 506th Regiment "Otvazhnye" in Pokrovsk confirms continued intense ground combat and RF commitment to this sector. RF's showcasing of social infrastructure development in occupied LNR aims to solidify its control and garner local support, projecting an image of stability and care for the population. The FAB-3000 strike further indicates RF's willingness to use heavy unguided bombs to clear suspected UAF positions, complementing ground assaults. "Two Majors" video ("No obstacles for the Guard!") and their ongoing reports from the Pokrovsk direction confirm RF capability to conduct sustained, aggressive ground assaults, including in contested urban/semi-urban environments. NEW: Vladimir Saldo's claim of UAF mining houses on Karantynny Island (Kherson) suggests RF is preparing for or anticipating an offensive in the Kherson region and has the intelligence capabilities to monitor UAF defensive preparations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Comprehensive Information Warfare and Expanded Diplomatic Leverage: RF possesses robust capabilities to conduct diverse narrative campaigns, manipulate information, engage in diplomatic outreach (e.g., EEF, African leaders, DPRK, Vietnam, China, SCO, Congo, Aliyev, Trump, Slovak PM Fico's statements, Austrian opposition leader comments, new strategic dialogue with GCC, Mongolian PM at EEF) and project an image of global influence and technological prowess (longevity discussions, unmanned trams, increased gas supplies to China, agricultural development, increased wages, CSTO exercises for drone expertise, robot-assisted pipe diagnostics, Russian-Chinese LED screens, gold tokenization, remote sales of energy drinks and Russian wine, GTLC Baikal aircraft contract, Mi-38 Arctic helicopters), while reinforcing domestic support through propaganda (Volgodonsk memorial, Pervomaisk renovation, Putin's humanitarian acts, Manchurian Operation commemoration, Beslan commemoration, humanitarian aid collections, "never give up" messaging, promoting infrastructure projects, import substitution, promoting specific military units like "Espanola" and war correspondents, FSB counter-deception campaign, promoting humanitarian medical evacuation from China) and addressing internal resource needs (crowdfunding for drones, internal anti-corruption actions, blogger arrests, Melitopol TG admins imprisoned, convicts Bryansk infiltrators). Putin's recent press conference in China served as a major platform to disseminate RF narratives on the conflict, NATO, Ukraine's sovereignty, peace talks, and UAF manning levels. New messaging on US/Western seizure of RF reserves, SCO non-confrontation, and willingness to raise negotiation level. Medvedev's statements further justify the SMO. RF is also actively showcasing its domestic tech support (Rosptrebnadzor for smartphones) and social policy (child bullying, proposing "Day of Domestic History", Russia metering device verification, new Duma proposal for family credit rates, educational loan forgiveness). The invitation for Kim Jong Un reinforces this anti-Western bloc formation. RF IO on "unipolar world" being unfair reinforces this intent. Leveraging Trump's planned call with Putin will serve to project diplomatic influence, despite the clarification that the call is with Zelenskyy, but US Ambassador Monica Crowley now states Trump wants to find common ground with RF in various spheres during talks with Putin. RF IO is promoting communistic social policies, celebrating infrastructure in Bryansk region, and promoting industrial self-sufficiency. RF is utilizing nationalistic cultural events (Vladivostok Corridor of Glory, Alexandrov Ensemble rehearsal for China trip) for morale. RF IO is propagating conspiracy theories about opposition deaths in Germany. RF is also leveraging historical narratives (WWII victors) to assert influence over European capitals. RF IO continues to push narratives about UK sanctions being cynical and deflect accusations of child abduction. RF IO is also using conspiracy theories (Epstein) to undermine Western institutions. RF IO is leveraging UAF statements on "frozen conflict" for Ukraine. RF IO is pushing a narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. RF IO is using light-hearted content, and providing daily news summaries. RF IO using a photo of Putin at a podium in a Chinese-style building to project diplomatic success. RF IO claims Kupyansk was "subsidized" and a reminder of a "totalitarian regime" to de-legitimize Ukrainian control. RF IO also mocks Zelenskyy's actions. RF actor-volunteer interview reinforces morale. RF IO uses an ambiguous graphic with Apple logo and date "09 09 25", potentially hinting at future IO or cyber activity aimed at the West. The death of a Russian citizen at Burning Man has potential for IO exploitation. RF IO also includes civilian cultural news (Radiohead concert) to project normalcy. Volgograd airport restrictions suggest a potential air security incident (e.g., UAV attack) that RF is controlling information about. Sochi airport restrictions were also implemented, then lifted, suggesting a similar incident and response. Gaza City before/after video is RF IO aiming to portray Western hypocrisy or the devastating impact of conflict in other regions. RF IO highlights economic stability (low unemployment rate, fuel market stability). RF IO is actively promoting China's military parade and linking it to Taiwan's fears, emphasizing a strong anti-Western axis. RF IO is leveraging the US court ruling on Harvard grants to highlight perceived Western internal disarray. The ongoing Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) is a significant platform for RF IO to demonstrate economic resilience and attract investment, with TASS highlighting participant attendance. The upcoming strategic dialogue with the GCC, announced by Lavrov, shows RF's intent to broaden its diplomatic and economic influence, particularly in the Middle East. The commitment to increasing military pensions and future budget allocations for "power structures" reflects an intent to maintain the loyalty and motivation of military and security forces, crucial for sustaining the war effort. The focus on securing financing for energy generation in the Far East indicates a long-term strategic intent to develop Russia's eastern regions and strengthen its economic base, projecting self-sufficiency and future growth. RF IO is now actively countering claims of Western support for Ukraine, with Maria Zakharova stating that Ukraine's security guarantees are "guarantees of danger" for Europe, and that US missile sales contradict settlement talks. RF is also reinforcing internal messaging on pension indexation for working pensioners. RF is openly discussing potential revisions to foreign currency revenue sales for exporters, indicating careful economic management. RF is promoting its energy sector development, including plans for an all-Russia energy meeting and the creation of a Primorye branch of Rosenergoatom, aiming for increased low-carbon generation in the Far East. RF is using narratives about the SCO summit causing "hysteria" in the West to further its anti-Western messaging. New RF internal security threats from scammers are being reported. New proposals regarding educational loan forgiveness for strategic sectors and Rosseti investments in the Far East show internal economic focus. The Amsterdam court denying Gazprom's appeal is a legal setback for RF, but the Khabarovsk governor's openness to ExxonMobil indicates long-term economic strategy. Rosatom's plan to attract borrowed funds for NPPs from 2028 and the Minfin's stance against abandoning cash also indicate long-term economic planning. Gold tokenization is a new technological/economic initiative. The rehearsal footage of the Alexandrov Ensemble for a China trip highlights cultural diplomacy. Maria Zakharova is actively refuting Western reports of a "hybrid attack" on Ursula von der Leyen's plane, attributing such claims to Western "desperation." The GTLC contract for 50 "Baikal" aircraft for "Aerokhimflot" signals continued internal development of civil aviation. The mine collapse in Yakutia will likely be managed internally with an intent to minimize negative public perception. TASS reports that a former deputy head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations in Kuban, Simonenko, is appealing his dismissal from a pre-trial detention center, indicating continued internal legal actions. The Mongolian Prime Minister's arrival at the EEF further expands RF's diplomatic outreach at the event. TASS also reports the Ministry of Emergency Situations will receive nine new Arctic Mi-38 helicopters by the end of the year, signaling a focus on Arctic capabilities and new technology. Maria Zakharova, at the EEF, stated Russia is closely monitoring NATO's "Namejs 2025" exercises in Latvia, calling for "detailed analysis" of such "autumn exacerbations," indicating heightened vigilance and a potential for counter-IO. Maria Zakharova, at the EEF, commented on the Ukrainian Ministry of Culture's actions at the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, calling it an "outrage against the feelings of believers," indicating an intent to fuel religious discord. Her statements on Azerbaijan and the OSCE Minsk Group confirm an intent to project Russian diplomatic influence and assert control over regional narratives. Sergey Tsivilev's interview at the EEF reinforces RF's capability to use economic forums for strategic communication, promoting stability and development. "Fighterbomber" and "Paratrooper's Diary" generic morning posts are routine morale-boosting IO. NEW: VTB Deputy Chairman Alexander Pakhomov's statement on projected bank deposit growth (17% in 2025 to over 67 trillion rubles) at the EEF showcases RF's ability to leverage economic forums for internal and external IO, projecting economic stability and confidence. RF milbloggers are consistently providing humanitarian aid updates with a focus on units operating in key offensive sectors (Pokrovsk, Dnepropetrovsk region), which is a capability for internal IO to demonstrate support for the military. TASS continuing to report on the Epstein video and the "missing minute" highlights RF's capability to exploit and amplify Western conspiracy theories for IO purposes. Basurin o Glavnom's "DAYinHISTORY" posts demonstrate a capability to leverage historical narratives and figures for nationalistic morale-boosting and to connect current conflicts with past glories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Intentions:

  • Strategic Objective: Degrade Ukrainian Warfighting Capacity, Break National Resilience, and Undermine Western Support.
    • Degrade UAF Defense Industry, Logistics, and Inflict Civilian Casualties: RF intends to systematically target Ukraine's ability to produce and sustain military operations by striking defense industry (now including electronics for UAVs and artillery, aircraft repair plants, "Spetsoboronmash" plant near Kyiv Oblast border), fuel, and railway infrastructure (confirmed Kirovohrad strikes), now with added pressure on Donetsk and Sumy, and by extension, inflict civilian casualties (Kostiantynivka, Nikopol region) to degrade morale and force UAF to divert resources. New UAV attacks on Kyiv and Kharkiv signal intent to maintain pressure on capital and strategic targets, as demonstrated by the Molniya UAV hitting a Kharkiv university. Potential strike on an automobile bridge in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicates intent to disrupt transportation. Strikes on Kramatorsk indicate intent to target logistical/industrial centers in the Donbas. Targeting UAF UAV operator locations and UAV launch points is a specific intent to degrade UAF drone capabilities. The new Shahed threats in Donetsk Oblast and towards Belozerske/Dobropillya indicate intent to sustain and expand these drone attacks. New КАБ launches on Sumy Oblast extend the strategic aerial pressure. The overall intent is to cripple Ukraine's ability to wage war, disrupt economic life (port investment project), and sow public discontent. The new UAV group from Kharkiv to Donetsk Oblast reinforces this intent. The UAV strike inside Krasnodar Krai may provoke retaliatory strikes or a further hardening of RF domestic air defense. The new UAV group from Donetsk to Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast indicates an intent to expand strategic aerial pressure further west. The new UAV group in Southern Sumy Oblast moving west indicates an intent to maintain or increase aerial reconnaissance and strike capabilities in this border region, potentially probing UAF air defenses or identifying targets. The new UAV groups on Poltava Oblast and in northern Kharkiv (Chuhuiv Raion) reinforce the intent to expand aerial reconnaissance and strike capabilities across additional central and eastern regions. The new groups of UAVs targeting Odesa/Fontanka from the Black Sea demonstrate an explicit intent to maintain pressure on Ukraine's vital Black Sea ports and potentially disrupt maritime trade, or to draw UAF air defense assets south. However, the successful interception of all these UAVs by UAF air defense has thwarted this specific intent for the current wave. RF's claim of destroying Ukrainian UAVs over Rostov suggests an intent to defend its airspace and potentially deter further Ukrainian cross-border operations. RF's enhanced drone operations, including "Rubikon" air defense combat groups, indicate an intent to improve reconnaissance and target acquisition for various military purposes, including air defense and ground strikes. The new UAV group from northern Sumy to Chernihiv Oblast indicates an intent to sustain aerial pressure on northern border regions, likely for reconnaissance and potential targeting, or to tie up UAF air defense assets. The new ballistic missile threats, high-speed target on Sumy, and КАБ launches on Zaporizhzhia reinforce the intent to apply consistent and varied aerial pressure across Ukraine. The FAB-3000 strike indicates an intent to degrade UAF troop concentrations and fortified positions using high-yield munitions, likely to soften targets for subsequent ground assaults or deny UAF forward deployments. The aftermath footage from Odesa, despite UAF interceptions, still indicates RF intent to inflict damage on Ukrainian urban centers, likely aiming to wear down civilian morale and economic resilience. The explicit focus on EW capabilities against UAF drones on the Zaporizhzhia front highlights an intent to neutralize a key UAF tactical advantage. NEW: The reported mining of Karantynny Island (Kherson) by UAF, claimed by Saldo, suggests RF's intent to monitor and react to UAF defensive preparations, indicating potential future RF offensive operations in the Kherson direction. RF's claim of shooting down 46 Ukrainian UAVs demonstrates an intent to actively defend its own airspace and deter UAF long-range drone operations, which could be seen as retaliatory or pre-emptive actions against UAF strikes on RF territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Achieve Operational Success in Donbas & Kharkiv Oblasts and Push West into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: RF intends to achieve significant ground gains, particularly in Sieversk for a strategic breakthrough and in Kupyansk to secure supply lines, now explicitly claiming control of a significant portion of the city and even UAF surrender, despite UAF counter-action. DeepState's confirmation of RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk provides a critical validation of RF intent to secure this city, though UAF still denies firm control of the city center. The successful RF engagement against UAF motorized units near Pokrovsk suggests an intent to disrupt UAF reinforcements/movement to the front. New claims of liberating Kamyshevakha indicate continued intent to push on the Donetsk axis. RF claims of assaulting Novoselivka and full control of Yanvarske signal a new, explicit intent to push westward into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, expanding the operational area of conflict significantly. Renewed small-group infiltration attempts on Pokrovsk indicate continued intent to push on this axis. Continued drone/artillery strikes in Kharkiv direction also aim to support ground efforts. The continued use of BM-21 Grad MLRS signals intent for sustained heavy fire support on these fronts. The adoption of anti-thermal imaging cloaks demonstrates an intent to circumvent UAF drone/thermal surveillance advantages and conduct more effective infiltration/sabotage behind UAF lines, specifically targeting high-value UAF assets like drone operators and mortar teams. The continued use of engineering vehicles (as seen by the destroyed AVLB) indicates an intent to maintain mobility and support offensive operations, despite losses. The reported engagement of the RF 506th Regiment "Otvazhnye" in Pokrovsk explicitly demonstrates an intent to secure gains in this area. RF's showcasing of social infrastructure development in occupied LNR aims to solidify its control and garner local support, projecting an image of stability and care for the population. The FAB-3000 strike further indicates RF's willingness to use heavy unguided bombs to clear suspected UAF positions, complementing ground assaults. The "Two Majors" video and ongoing reports from the Pokrovsk direction confirm RF intent for sustained, aggressive ground operations aimed at achieving territorial gains, particularly along key axes. NEW: Vladimir Saldo's claim of UAF mining houses on Karantynny Island (Kherson) in anticipation of an RF advance strongly suggests RF's intent to conduct offensive operations in the Kherson direction, aiming to further expand or consolidate control in southern Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Consolidate Anti-Western Bloc & Project Strength: RF seeks to deepen strategic cooperation with non-Western nations (DPRK, Vietnam, China, SCO, Congo, Aliyev, Trump, Slovak PM Fico's statements, Austrian opposition leader comments, new strategic dialogue with GCC, Mongolian PM at EEF) and project an image of global influence and technological prowess (longevity discussions, unmanned trams, increased gas supplies to China, agricultural development, increased wages, CSTO exercises for drone expertise, robot-assisted pipe diagnostics, Russian-Chinese LED screens, gold tokenization, remote sales of energy drinks and Russian wine, GTLC Baikal aircraft contract, Mi-38 Arctic helicopters), while reinforcing domestic support through propaganda (Volgodonsk memorial, Pervomaisk renovation, Putin's humanitarian acts, Manchurian Operation commemoration, Beslan commemoration, humanitarian aid collections, "never give up" messaging, promoting infrastructure projects, import substitution, promoting specific military units like "Espanola" and war correspondents, FSB counter-deception campaign, promoting humanitarian medical evacuation from China) and addressing internal resource needs (crowdfunding for drones, internal anti-corruption actions, blogger arrests, Melitopol TG admins imprisoned, convicts Bryansk infiltrators). Putin's recent press conference in China served as a major platform to disseminate RF narratives on the conflict, NATO, Ukraine's sovereignty, peace talks, and UAF manning levels. New messaging on US/Western seizure of RF reserves, SCO non-confrontation, and willingness to raise negotiation level. Medvedev's statements further justify the SMO. RF is also actively showcasing its domestic tech support (Rosptrebnadzor for smartphones) and social policy (child bullying, proposing "Day of Domestic History", Russia metering device verification, new Duma proposal for family credit rates, educational loan forgiveness). The invitation for Kim Jong Un reinforces this anti-Western bloc formation. RF IO on "unipolar world" being unfair reinforces this intent. Leveraging Trump's planned call with Putin will serve to project diplomatic influence, despite the clarification that the call is with Zelenskyy, but US Ambassador Monica Crowley now states Trump wants to find common ground with RF in various spheres during talks with Putin. RF IO is promoting communistic social policies, celebrating infrastructure in Bryansk region, and promoting industrial self-sufficiency. RF is utilizing nationalistic cultural events (Vladivostok Corridor of Glory, Alexandrov Ensemble rehearsal for China trip) for morale. RF IO is propagating conspiracy theories about opposition deaths in Germany. RF is also leveraging historical narratives (WWII victors) to assert influence over European capitals. RF IO continues to push narratives about UK sanctions being cynical and deflect accusations of child abduction. RF IO is also using conspiracy theories (Epstein) to undermine Western institutions. RF IO is leveraging UAF statements on "frozen conflict" for Ukraine. RF IO is pushing a narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. RF IO is using light-hearted content, and providing daily news summaries. RF IO using a photo of Putin at a Chinese-style building to project diplomatic success. RF IO claims Kupyansk was "subsidized" and a reminder of a "totalitarian regime" to de-legitimize Ukrainian control. RF IO also mocks Zelenskyy's actions. RF actor-volunteer interview reinforces morale. RF IO uses an ambiguous graphic with Apple logo and date "09 09 25", potentially hinting at future IO or cyber activity aimed at the West. The death of a Russian citizen at Burning Man has potential for IO exploitation. RF IO also includes civilian cultural news (Radiohead concert) to project normalcy. Volgograd airport restrictions suggest a potential air security incident (e.g., UAV attack) that RF is controlling information about. Sochi airport restrictions were also implemented, then lifted, suggesting a similar incident and response. Gaza City before/after video is RF IO aiming to portray Western hypocrisy or the devastating impact of conflict in other regions. RF IO highlights economic stability (low unemployment rate, fuel market stability). RF IO is actively promoting China's military parade and linking it to Taiwan's fears, emphasizing a strong anti-Western axis. RF IO is leveraging the US court ruling on Harvard grants to highlight perceived Western internal disarray. The ongoing Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) is a significant platform for RF IO to demonstrate economic resilience and attract investment, with TASS highlighting participant attendance. The upcoming strategic dialogue with the GCC, announced by Lavrov, shows RF's intent to broaden its diplomatic and economic influence, particularly in the Middle East. The commitment to increasing military pensions and future budget allocations for "power structures" reflects an intent to maintain the loyalty and motivation of military and security forces, crucial for sustaining the war effort. The focus on securing financing for energy generation in the Far East indicates a long-term strategic intent to develop Russia's eastern regions and strengthen its economic base, projecting self-sufficiency and future growth. RF IO is now actively countering claims of Western support for Ukraine, with Maria Zakharova stating that Ukraine's security guarantees are "guarantees of danger" for Europe, and that US missile sales contradict settlement talks. RF is also reinforcing internal messaging on pension indexation for working pensioners. RF is openly discussing potential revisions to foreign currency revenue sales for exporters, indicating careful economic management. RF is promoting its energy sector development, including plans for an all-Russia energy meeting and the creation of a Primorye branch of Rosenergoatom, aiming for increased low-carbon generation in the Far East. RF is using narratives about the SCO summit causing "hysteria" in the West to further its anti-Western messaging. New RF internal security threats from scammers are being reported. New proposals regarding educational loan forgiveness for strategic sectors and Rosseti investments in the Far East show internal economic focus. The Amsterdam court denying Gazprom's appeal is a legal setback for RF, but the Khabarovsk governor's openness to ExxonMobil indicates long-term economic strategy. Rosatom's plan to attract borrowed funds for NPPs from 2028 and the Minfin's stance against abandoning cash also indicate long-term economic planning. Gold tokenization is a new technological/economic initiative. The rehearsal footage of the Alexandrov Ensemble for a China trip highlights cultural diplomacy. Maria Zakharova is actively refuting Western reports of a "hybrid attack" on Ursula von der Leyen's plane, attributing such claims to Western "desperation." The GTLC contract for 50 "Baikal" aircraft for "Aerokhimflot" signals continued internal development of civil aviation. The mine collapse in Yakutia will likely be managed internally with an intent to minimize negative public perception. TASS reports that a former deputy head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations in Kuban, Simonenko, is appealing his dismissal from a pre-trial detention center, indicating continued internal legal actions. The Mongolian Prime Minister's arrival at the EEF further expands RF's diplomatic outreach at the event. TASS also reports the Ministry of Emergency Situations will receive nine new Arctic Mi-38 helicopters by the end of the year, signaling a focus on Arctic capabilities and new technology. Maria Zakharova, at the EEF, stated Russia is closely monitoring NATO's "Namejs 2025" exercises in Latvia, calling for "detailed analysis" of such "autumn exacerbations," indicating heightened vigilance and a potential for counter-IO. Maria Zakharova, at the EEF, commented on the Ukrainian Ministry of Culture's actions at the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, calling it an "outrage against the feelings of believers," indicating an intent to fuel religious discord. Her statements on Azerbaijan and the OSCE Minsk Group confirm an intent to project Russian diplomatic influence and assert control over regional narratives. Sergey Tsivilev's interview at the EEF reinforces RF's capability to use economic forums for strategic communication, promoting stability and development. "Fighterbomber" and "Paratrooper's Diary" generic morning posts are routine morale-boosting IO. NEW: Alexander Pakhomov's statement at the EEF (VTB) on projected Russian bank deposit growth of 17% in 2025 (exceeding 67 trillion rubles) is a clear intent to project domestic economic stability and confidence, both internally and to potential foreign investors. The "Operation Z" videos showcasing humanitarian aid (thermal monoculars, communication equipment) for troops advancing on Pokrovsk and Dnepropetrovsk aim to demonstrate internal support for the military and boost morale, signaling an intent to sustain the war effort through public contributions. TASS's continued reporting on the Epstein video and the "missing minute" highlights RF's intent to exploit Western internal issues and conspiracy theories for propaganda, aiming to discredit Western institutions and divert attention. Basurin o Glavnom's "DAYinHISTORY" posts are intended to reinforce nationalistic sentiment and link current military actions to historical military achievements, fostering a sense of continuity and justification for the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Information Dominance & Undermining Ukrainian Leadership: RF aims to control narratives by amplifying UAF vulnerabilities (winter, supply issues, ground losses - Kupyansk claims vs. UAF denials. DeepState now confirms RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk, though UAF still denies firm control of the city center. Reports of RF successfully destroying UAF motorized units near Pokrovsk with casualties. Kamyshevakha claims, Novoselivka/Yanvarske claims, claims of critical UAF manning levels, moldy rations reports for internal consumption, UAF drone requests), fabricating UAF misdeeds, promoting its military effectiveness (modernized drones, Lancet strikes, effective use of personnel as "cheapest weapon," drone/artillery strikes on Kharkiv direction, mortar strike in settlement, Msta-S howitzer successes, FPV drone strike on checkpoint, strike on UAF UAV operator location, drone operator hit footage from MoD Russia, Rubikon air defense combat groups, ЛМУР strike on UAF UAV launch point), and diplomatic successes, and sowing discord within Ukraine (e.g., exploiting debates on Telegram, refugee narratives, mobilization issues, UAF drone operators deserting claims, local governance issues in occupied territories, ridiculing Ukrainian political decisions, UAF surrender claims in Kupyansk, Melitopol TG admins imprisoned, Ukrainian customs corruption, Poroshenko's Telegram ban stance, Alex Parker Returns inflammatory rhetoric against "Khokhols", derogatory content on UAF female servicewomen, ex-Azerbaijani MiG-29 as disinformation, RF spin on Zelenskyy's "Coalition of Willing" statement, Ukrainian parliament debates on temporary booking for defense industry, UAF discussions on exit for men, UAF discussion of frozen conflict). Putin's statements on Zelenskyy's legitimacy, the possibility of talks in Moscow, and the necessity of referendums on territories, directly challenge UAF's narrative. RF will actively promote legal avenues for military personnel to leave service. RF will actively attempt to create friction between Ukraine and its allies (new claims by former Polish President Duda on Ukraine dragging NATO into the war, Polish deportations, EU foreign policy trust, German political discord, UK accusations on child abduction, UK sanctions on "Victory Volunteers"). Putin's new claims of all groupings successfully advancing and seeing "light in the tunnel" for settlement while being ready for military solution, coupled with blaming the West for failed peace efforts, will be central to this IO push. RF IO is now actively deflecting Trump's "conspiracy" claims and using highly derogatory language against Zelenskyy. Trump's announced call with Putin will be leveraged by RF IO, despite the clarification that the call is with Zelenskyy, and US Ambassador Monica Crowley's statement on Trump seeking common ground with RF reinforces this intent. RF IO is also attempting to generate conspiracy theories and discredit opposing political forces (German opposition deaths). RF IO is also attempting to use internal RF military incidents, such as the alleged murder of a pilot, to reinforce narratives of internal security or to divert attention. RF also intends to control information internally, as seen in Belgorod, to manage public perception of UAV attacks. RF IO is leveraging UAF statements on a "frozen conflict" scenario. RF IO is pushing a narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. RF IO is using light-hearted content, and providing daily news summaries. RF IO using a photo of Putin at a Chinese-style building to project diplomatic success. RF IO framing Kupyansk as a "subsidized" town with a "totalitarian past" aims to culturally justify its capture. RF IO also mocks Zelenskyy's actions. RF actor-volunteer interview reinforces morale. RF IO uses an ambiguous graphic with Apple logo and date "09 09 25", potentially hinting at future IO or cyber activity aimed at the West. The death of a Russian citizen at Burning Man has potential for RF IO to highlight perceived dangers or failures in Western countries. RF IO also includes civilian cultural news (Radiohead concert) to project normalcy. Volgograd airport restrictions suggest a potential air security incident (e.g., UAV attack) that RF is controlling information about. Sochi airport restrictions were also implemented, then lifted, suggesting a similar incident and response. Gaza City before/after video is RF IO aiming to portray Western hypocrisy or the devastating impact of conflict in other regions. RF IO highlights economic stability (low unemployment rate, fuel market stability). RF IO is actively promoting China's military parade and linking it to Taiwan's fears, emphasizing a strong anti-Western axis. RF IO is leveraging the US court ruling on Harvard grants to highlight perceived Western internal disarray. The ongoing Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) is a significant platform for RF IO to demonstrate economic vitality and global engagement, leveraging the participation of the Mongolian PM. TASS will continue to emphasize positive economic news, such as the CBRF's path to lower key rates and the stable fuel market, to project internal economic strength. The indexation of military pensions will be used to demonstrate state care for military personnel and veterans, boosting morale and loyalty within the "power structures." The upcoming strategic dialogue with the GCC will be framed as a major diplomatic success, demonstrating RF's expanding global influence. Cultural events at the EEF will be used to project normalcy and national pride, contrasting with conflict narratives. The focus on Far East energy development will contribute to a narrative of long-term economic planning and resilience. RF IO will also aggressively dismiss any ideas of foreign military intervention in Ukraine. Maria Zakharova's statements regarding the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra aim to delegitimize the Ukrainian government and rally religious elements against it. Her comments on Azerbaijan and the OSCE Minsk Group aim to project RF as a key regional mediator and decision-maker. "Two Majors" and "Fighterbomber" social media posts, along with "Paratrooper's Diary" summaries, demonstrate RF's intent to maintain a consistent, morale-boosting narrative for military personnel and domestic audiences, even with generic content. NEW: VTB Deputy Chairman Alexander Pakhomov's economic projections at the EEF (increased bank deposits) are intended to project internal stability and economic strength, countering narratives of Western sanctions effectiveness. The "Operation Z" videos showing humanitarian aid deliveries to frontline units are intended to boost morale and demonstrate public support for the military. The continuation of reporting on the Epstein video by TASS is an intent to leverage Western internal issues and conspiracy theories for propaganda. Basurin o Glavnom's historical posts are intended to bolster nationalistic sentiment and provide historical justification for current military actions. RF is actively using the platform of Saldo at the EEF to push narratives about UAF defensive preparations (mining Karantynny Island) to justify potential future RF offensives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Courses of Action (COAs):

  • MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action):
    1. RF will continue to maintain intense offensive pressure on the Sieversk axis to achieve an operational encirclement, reinforcing with IO imagery as observed. RF will likely commit its main effort to seizing full control of Kupyansk, escalating urban combat and attempting to interdict UAF reinforcements, leveraging its confirmed presence and infiltration attempts in the city, and capitalizing on fragmented UAF defenses as suggested by DeepState and Colonelcassad. RF will actively promote claims of UAF surrender in Kupyansk through its IO, even if unverified. RF will seek to consolidate and exploit claimed gains around Kamyshevakha to advance further in Donetsk Oblast, potentially threatening access to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF will attempt to exploit claimed control of Yanvarske and foothold in eastern Novoselivka to further advance westward in Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast, establishing new forward positions and potentially securing key logistical routes. RF will also likely prepare for offensive operations in the Kherson direction, evidenced by claims of UAF mining Karantynny Island, aiming to seize further territory in southern Ukraine. Localized offensive pressure on the Pokrovsk axis will continue, attempting to counter UAF gains and exploit any weaknesses (e.g., continued small group tactics), likely resulting in further damage to civilian infrastructure as observed by UAF drones and successful destruction of UAF motorized units on approaches. The RF 506th Regiment will continue active combat operations in the Pokrovsk area. RF will continue to showcase social infrastructure development in occupied territories like LNR to project stability and normalcy under Russian administration. RF will actively document any tactical successes (e.g., damaged military vehicles, destruction of UAF artillery/equipment) for IO purposes, including misattributing destruction of its own engineering vehicles to UAF. Localized assaults in the Vovchansk direction will persist, supported by Msta-S howitzer operations, BM-21 Grad MLRS, and drone/artillery strikes in the Kharkiv direction, including targeting UAF artillery in settlements. RF will actively seek to disrupt UAF logistics via further strikes on railway infrastructure (confirmed in Kirovohrad/Znamenka) and will continue air-launched КАБ strikes, expanding to new areas like Donetsk Oblast (including new UAV group from Kharkiv to Donetsk, and new UAV group from Donetsk to Dnipropetrovsk) and Sumy Oblast (including new UAV group in Southern Sumy moving west, NEW UAVs towards Poltava and northern Kharkiv Oblast (Chuhuiv Raion), and NEW UAV group from northern Sumy to Chernihiv Oblast), and specifically targeting UAF defense industry (e.g., electronics for UAVs/artillery in Khmelnytskyi, "Motor" aircraft repair plant in Lutsk, "Donmashstroy" in Kramatorsk, "Spetsoboronmash" plant near Kyiv Oblast border), and will continue indiscriminate shelling/drone attacks on civilian population centers (e.g., Kostiantynivka, Nikopol region, Chuhuiv community, Odesa/Fontanka, Pokrovsk), including use of FPV drones against civilian transport and tactical targets (checkpoint). RF will likely attempt to conduct further strikes on transportation infrastructure, as suggested by the Ivanivka bridge strike claim, to disrupt UAF logistics and movement. RF will continue to actively target UAF UAV operator locations, as demonstrated by the strike in Kupyansk-Uzlovoy, AND UAV launch points, as demonstrated by the strike on the 22nd Motorized Brigade. RF will continue to target educational facilities, as evidenced by the "Molniya" UAV strike on a Kharkiv university. New Shahed threats in Donetsk Oblast and towards Belozerske/Dobropillya are consistent with this. UAF special forces operations in Sumy Oblast are a new dynamic to this MLCOA, with RF likely to counter these incursions with increased security or fire. RF will continue to utilize anti-thermal imaging cloaks to facilitate covert infiltration operations, particularly targeting UAF drone operators and mortar teams, as a standard tactic across the front. RF will continue to use heavy unguided munitions like FAB-3000 against suspected UAF troop concentrations or fortified positions to achieve localized destructive effects. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    2. RF will conduct sustained, medium-to-high volume drone and missile strikes, with a heightened focus on defense industry (UAV/artillery electronics, aircraft repair plants, "Spetsoboronmash" plant near Kyiv Oblast border), fuel, and railway infrastructure targets (as seen in Kirovohrad/Znamenka), alongside opportunistic strikes on population centers resulting in civilian casualties (Kostiantynivka, Nikopol region), including use of FPV drones against civilian transport and tactical targets, and now also targeting educational institutions (Kharkiv university), and a renewed focus on Odesa/Fontanka from the Black Sea with a large group of Shaheds. Although the latest wave against Odesa was successfully intercepted, RF will likely launch subsequent waves, attempting to overwhelm UAF air defenses and achieve hits. Expect continued ballistic missile launches from the northeast, high-speed targets on Sumy, and КАБ launches on Zaporizhzhia, demonstrating a multi-vector aerial threat. Expect the use of FAB-3000 to become a more regular feature against suspected UAF strongpoints or troop concentrations. Expect continued targeting of critical infrastructure, logistics hubs, and military installations across Ukraine, including renewed strikes on Khmelnytskyi Oblast, Kirovohrad Oblast, and continued pressure on Zaporizhzhia, Nikopol, Druzhkivka, and Kyiv Oblasts. RF will leverage claimed "modernized drones" and precision munitions like Lancet to target UAF military assets (e.g., radar, UAF UAV operator locations, artillery - as evidenced by UAF drone striking RF 2S19 Msta-S. UAF claims destruction of RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which may impact RF air defense capabilities and provoke retaliatory strikes). The new ЛМУР strike on a UAF UAV launch point (22nd Motorized Brigade) is indicative of RF's continued focus on degrading UAF drone capabilities. RF's animated strike scheme is indicative of this sustained campaign. UAF will continue to observe and adapt to any technical changes in RF UAVs. New UAV groups targeting various Ukrainian regions are consistent with this COA, with UAF air defense actively responding as seen in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. New Shahed threats in Donetsk Oblast and towards Belozerske/Dobropillya are also consistent with this, requiring continued and adaptive air defense. New КАБ launches on Sumy Oblast extend this aerial threat. The UAV strike in Krasnodar Krai may lead to increased RF air defense measures or a more aggressive posture for cross-border strikes. RF will also claim successful interception of Ukrainian UAVs over its territory (e.g., Rostov Oblast) to project defensive capabilities. RF will also leverage its diverse drone capabilities, including "Rubikon" air defense combat groups (Leleka-100, RQ-35 Heidrun, Vector, VT-260), for enhanced reconnaissance and target acquisition to support these strikes and improve air defense. The newly detected UAV group from northern Sumy to Chernihiv Oblast is consistent with this sustained aerial reconnaissance and strike COA. RF will also actively employ electronic warfare (EW) to counter UAF drone activity, particularly on the Zaporizhzhia front, as highlighted by "Operation Z" messaging. RF will continue to defend its airspace against UAF cross-border UAV strikes, evidenced by the claim of shooting down 46 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions and the Black Sea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    3. RF Information Operations will heavily amplify claims of successful ground gains in Sieversk, Kupyansk (now explicitly claiming "about half" of the city, and UAF surrender, and leveraging UAF sources that confirm infiltration and presence but deny firm control of the center), Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, Yanvarske, and will prepare narratives for anticipated advances in Kherson (Karantynny Island mining). Messaging will aggressively highlight the deepening RF-DPRK (including Kim Jong Un's invitation, confirmed military transport aircraft in NK, Kim Jong Un's support for Moscow, subsidized Moscow-Pyongyang flights, friendly atmosphere of meeting), RF-Vietnam, RF-China (trade, longevity discussions, increased gas supplies, China's military parade and Taiwan fears, Russian-Chinese LED screens), and RF-Congo relationships as a sign of global support and a counter to Western isolation, leveraging the optics of Putin's China visit and press conference, and emphasizing the SCO as a united front. Narratives will continue to promote Russia's diplomatic influence, technological resilience (unmanned trams, Rosptrebnadzor smartphone assistance, ERA-GLONASS connected cars, robot-assisted pipe diagnostics, Russian-Chinese LED screens, gold tokenization, remote sales of energy drinks and Russian wine, GTLC Baikal aircraft contract, Mi-38 Arctic helicopters), and economic resilience (import substitution, agricultural development, increased wages, promoting infrastructure development, industrial self-sufficiency, Far Eastern surcharge extension, "T Plus" investment plans, Russia metering device verification, new Duma proposal for family credit rates, stable fuel market, discussions on foreign currency revenue sales, all-Russia energy meeting, Rosenergoatom Primorye branch, low-carbon generation in Far East, energy cost monitoring, educational loan forgiveness, Rosseti investments in DFO, Rosatom borrowing for NPPs, Minfin stance on cashless payments, VTB projected bank deposit growth), while relentlessly pushing anti-Western rhetoric (e.g., "Europe wants war by 2030," EU gas pact issues, Germany energy deficit, Belgian FM remarks on EU trust, German politician's rhetoric, US/Western seizure of RF reserves, US Venezuela rhetoric, new claims by former Polish President Duda on Ukraine dragging NATO into the war, framing NATO ISR as provocative, Senator Pushkov deflecting Trump's "conspiracy" claims, Slovak PM Fico on EU China absence, "unipolar world" being unfair, leveraging Trump's comments on the war's difficulty, Nagorno-Karabakh analysis, UK sanctions on "Victory Volunteers", UK accusations on child abduction, Epstein conspiracy theory, Xi Jinping & Putin challenge West IO, Austrian opposition leader comments, US court ruling on Harvard grants, Zakharova on Ukraine's security guarantees being "guarantees of danger" to Europe, Zakharova on US missile sales contradicting settlement talks, Zakharova on Von der Leyen's plane incident, Slutsky on Kallas' "hysteria" over SCO results, Zakharova on Namejs 2025) and reacting to US statements on deterrence. **Expect narratives to focus on the alleged "difficult winter" for Ukraine (contrasting with Zelenskyy's statement), and increased internal information control measures to limit dissent and foreign influence (as seen in Belgorod, Volgograd airport restrictions, Sochi airport restrictions), including countering deepfakes regarding military service and using Rosfinmonitoring designations. Putin's statements on Zelenskyy's legitimacy (expired term), the need for referendums for territorial questions, and the invitation for Zelenskyy to meet in Moscow (as seen in RF IO) will be central to RF IO, designed to undermine UAF leadership and control the narrative on peace talks. RF will actively promote legal avenues for military personnel to leave service. RF will continue to promote "reconstruction" in occupied territories (LNR social objects, Pervomaisk, LNR internet speed) and nationalistic events (Volgodonsk memorial, Manchurian Operation commemoration, Beslan commemoration, humanitarian aid collections for children in SVO zone, Moscow travel banners, memorials like Благовещенск Alley of Memory, Vladivostok Corridor of Glory, actor-volunteer interviews, Alexandrov Ensemble rehearsal for China trip, Basurin's "DAYinHISTORY" posts) and advertise legal aid for soldiers seeking discharge, while also publicly crowdfunding for drones and promoting rhetoric that normalizes personnel losses in war (e.g., "cheapest weapon," "never give up"). RF will continue to exploit internal societal issues (bacon incident, migrant crime in Petersburg, Gorlovka mayor issues, moldy rations reports for internal consumption, fraud with Putin portrait, Ukrainian customs corruption) for IO impact. Putin's new claims of widespread RF advances and a dual track of "peace" vs. "military solution," along with claims of critical UAF manning levels and the West sabotaging peace efforts, will be central to this IO push. RF will also signal willingness to raise negotiation level. Medvedev's statement on "crack in world order" will justify SMO. Internal actions (asset seizures, blogger arrests, Melitopol TG admins imprisoned, FSB counter-deception campaign, convicts Bryansk infiltrators, Mironov's proposal for working pensioner indexation, Nemkin on scammers, Yakutia mine collapse, Simonenko appeal) will be framed as anti-corruption or upholding national security. RF will attempt to portray UAF internal issues (e.g., dead border guard, mobilization evasion, UAF drone requests, Ukraine parliament temporary booking for defense industry, UAF discussions on exit for men, UAF discussion of frozen conflict, Amsterdam court ruling against Gazprom) as signs of weakness. RF internal military culture (graffiti with slurs, WarGonzo "Behind the Balaclava") will reinforce dehumanization. RF IO will use highly derogatory language against Zelenskyy and Poroshenko, and against Ukrainians in general (Alex Parker Returns' "Khokhols," Kotsnews' "pig's snout", Fighterbomber's mockery of Zelenskyy, derogatory content on UAF female servicewomen, ex-Azerbaijani MiG-29). Trump's announced call with Putin will be widely broadcast as a sign of RF's diplomatic influence, despite the clarification that the call is with Zelenskyy, and US Ambassador Monica Crowley's statement on Trump seeking common ground with RF reinforces this narrative. RF IO will also mock Ukrainian servicewomen. RF will also attempt to generate conspiracy theories about political opponents (German opposition deaths) and leverage historical narratives (WWII victors) to assert influence. RF IO will also use the captured RF soldier interview to highlight alleged UAF mistreatment of prisoners or to promote the narrative of a brutal war. RF IO will also exploit internal incidents like the alleged murder of a military pilot at Krasnodar flight school to deflect criticism from the overall war effort, potentially framing it as a security measure. RF IO will leverage CSTO exercises to showcase drone expertise. RF IO will attempt to spin Zelenskyy's "Coalition of Willing" statement negatively. RF IO will leverage UAF statements on a "frozen conflict" scenario. RF IO is pushing a narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. RF IO is using light-hearted content, and providing daily news summaries. RF IO using a photo of Putin at a Chinese-style building to project diplomatic success. RF IO framing Kupyansk as a "subsidized" town with a "totalitarian past" aims to culturally justify its capture. RF IO also mocks Zelenskyy's actions. RF actor-volunteer interview reinforces morale. RF IO uses an ambiguous graphic with Apple logo and date "09 09 25", potentially hinting at future IO or cyber activity aimed at the West. The death of a Russian citizen at Burning Man has potential for RF IO to highlight perceived dangers or failures in Western countries. RF IO also includes civilian cultural news (Radiohead concert) to project normalcy. Volgograd airport restrictions suggest a potential air security incident (e.g., UAV attack) that RF is controlling information about. Sochi airport restrictions were also implemented, then lifted, suggesting a similar incident and response. Gaza City before/after video is RF IO aiming to portray Western hypocrisy or the devastating impact of conflict in other regions. RF IO highlights economic stability (low unemployment rate, fuel market stability). RF IO is actively promoting China's military parade and linking it to Taiwan's fears, emphasizing a strong anti-Western axis. RF IO is leveraging the US court ruling on Harvard grants to highlight perceived Western internal disarray. The ongoing Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) is a significant platform for RF IO to demonstrate economic vitality and global engagement, leveraging the participation of the Mongolian PM. TASS will continue to emphasize positive economic news, such as the CBRF's path to lower key rates and the stable fuel market, to project internal economic strength. The indexation of military pensions will be used to demonstrate state care for military personnel and veterans, boosting morale and loyalty within the "power structures." The upcoming strategic dialogue with the GCC will be framed as a major diplomatic success, demonstrating RF's expanding global influence. Cultural events at the EEF will be used to project normalcy and national pride, contrasting with conflict narratives. The focus on Far East energy development will contribute to a narrative of long-term economic planning and resilience. RF IO will also aggressively dismiss any ideas of foreign military intervention in Ukraine. Maria Zakharova's statements regarding the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra will be leveraged to accuse Ukraine of religious persecution and undermine its international legitimacy. Her statements on Azerbaijan and the OSCE Minsk Group will be used to portray RF as a constructive regional actor and influence international perceptions of its foreign policy. Expect continued leveraging of the EEF, including interviews like Sergey Tsivilev's and Alexander Pakhomov's, to project an image of a stable, developing, and resilient Russia, capable of long-term strategic planning. "Two Majors" video ("No obstacles for the Guard!") with generic morale-boosting captions will continue, as will "Fighterbomber" and "Paratrooper's Diary" posts, aimed at maintaining domestic and military support. NEW: "Operation Z" videos showcasing humanitarian aid to frontline units will be used for internal IO to demonstrate public and official support for the troops and justify the ongoing offensive. TASS will continue to leverage Western conspiracy theories (Epstein video) to sow distrust in Western institutions. RF will also leverage statements from its officials (Saldo at EEF) to control narratives regarding UAF defensive actions and justify future RF offensives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

  1. Decisive Operational Collapse in Donbas and Deep Penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast & Kherson: RF achieves a decisive operational breakthrough or encirclement of UAF forces in Sieversk, forcing widespread UAF redeployments. This is coupled with a large-scale, coordinated ground attack in Kupyansk, consolidating full control of the city and establishing a bridgehead for further westward advance into Kharkiv Oblast. A rapid breakthrough from Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, and Yanvarske further deepens RF penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, threatening key logistical infrastructure and major cities. Simultaneously, a concerted RF offensive in the Kherson direction, potentially involving amphibious assaults across the Dnipro, capitalizes on UAF defensive preparations on Karantynny Island, leading to significant territorial gains and a multi-front collapse and widespread panic. The widespread use of high-yield FAB-3000 bombs on UAF PVDs could accelerate this MDCOA by severely degrading UAF defensive capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  2. Systemic Air Defense Degradation and Strategic Infrastructure Collapse with Cyber Amplification (Including Odesa Port) & Critical EW Overmatch: RF launches an overwhelming, multi-wave missile and drone attack, systematically degrading UAF air defense capabilities, potentially leveraging DPRK-supplied munitions and/or overwhelming EW capabilities (as demonstrated on the Zaporizhzhia front) to blind UAF defenses and drone operations. This would be followed by or concurrent with a sophisticated cyber-attack targeting critical infrastructure SCADA systems, aiming for systemic, multi-sector failure of defense industry, energy, transportation (railway hubs, bridges), and C2 nodes. This could lead to prolonged, widespread disruptions, cripple maritime trade via Odesa, and significantly damage national morale and economic function. The demonstrated capability to shoot down 46 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian territory and the Black Sea could be used by RF as justification or a pre-emptive measure for more aggressive, sustained, and larger-scale aerial offensives against Ukraine, framed as retaliation or defensive actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  3. Coordinated Hybrid Escalation in Baltic/NATO Border Regions & Mass Cyber/IO Offensive against Western Institutions, Reinforced by China-DPRK Axis, and Direct Challenge to Western Aid for Ukraine: RF executes a coordinated, large-scale hybrid operation in the Baltic region, combining covert drone incursions with intensified cyber-attacks against critical infrastructure and aggressive information operations designed to test NATO Article 5 and draw significant NATO resources away from Ukraine. Simultaneously, RF launches a mass cyber-attack and associated disinformation campaign against critical Western institutions (e.g., financial systems, government infrastructure, media), potentially utilizing the "09 09 25" Apple logo graphic as a component of a large-scale influence operation to sow widespread discord, confusion, and distrust in Western systems and leadership. The confirmed RF-DPRK military axis and China's demonstrated military capabilities (amplified by RF IO) add a significant dimension, indicating a potential for a broadly coordinated anti-Western hybrid strategy that leverages the capabilities and influence of all three nations. This MDCOA is further exacerbated by RF IO directly challenging the legitimacy and effectiveness of Western security guarantees for Ukraine, aiming to sow discord among allies and weaken international resolve. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

  • Immediate (0-12 hours):
    • Ground: Continued intense ground combat around Sieversk, Kupyansk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, Yanvarske, Pokrovsk, and Vovchansk. Urgent need to definitively assess RF penetration in Kupyansk and the extent of their claimed gains in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Immediate decisions on reinforcing threatened sectors, allocating fire support, and adapting counter-infiltration tactics against anti-thermal cloaks. Immediate BDA of the FAB-3000 strike on the UAF PVD to determine casualties and impact on operations. Immediate review of UAF General Staff RF loss figures for trend analysis and resource allocation implications. Confirm details of RF ground operations in the Pokrovsk direction from milblogger reports. Immediate verification of UAF mining on Karantynny Island and assessment of potential RF offensive in Kherson. Assess impact of "Shadow Unit" video. Monitor RF strike reporting on Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
    • Air: Air defense threats for Odesa, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Sumy, Poltava, and Chuhuiv Raion have been neutralized. However, continuous monitoring is required for new launch windows and adaptive RF tactics for subsequent UAV waves, especially against Odesa. Immediate response to new RF UAV group in northern Sumy heading for Chernihiv Oblast. Continued monitoring for КАБ launches in Donetsk and Sumy. Urgent BDA for claimed strikes on Khmelnytskyi, Lutsk, Kramatorsk, Kupyansk-Uzlovoy, the "Spetsoboronmash" plant, and the UAF UAV launch point for the 22nd Motorized Brigade. Monitor any further incidents at Volgograd airport. Monitor Sochi airport for any new restrictions. Assess the operational implications of the new "Rubikon" air defense combat groups and their drone types. Immediate response and tracking of new ballistic missile threats, high-speed target on Sumy, and КАБ launches on Zaporizhzhia, requiring rapid assessment of trajectory and potential impact points. Assess BDA from Odesa drone attack aftermath footage and determine any long-term impact. Analyze "Operation Z" EW video for new RF counter-drone tactics. Immediate BDA for the 46 Ukrainian UAVs claimed shot down by RF. Assess the ongoing threat to Kryvyi Rih given the "controlled" status.
    • IO/Diplomatic: Preparation for the Trump-Zelenskyy-European leaders call. Immediate counter-IO against RF claims of Kupyansk control and any new ambiguous IO targeting Western audiences. Monitoring of RF internal IO for impact of Burning Man death. UAF MFA's strong response to Putin must be amplified. Immediate assessment of the implications of the RF military transport to North Korea and Kim Jong Un's public support for Moscow. Monitor RF IO regarding China's military parade and its implications for global power dynamics. Assess the impact of the US court ruling on Harvard grants on RF IO narratives. Analyze RF IO promoting family credit rates and humanitarian aid. Monitor RF IO regarding fuel market stability and Russian-Chinese LED screens, as well as the ongoing EEF, including Sergey Tsivilev's and Alexander Pakhomov's interviews. Monitor Zakharova's briefing and any new announcements from the EEF, especially concerning Lavrov's upcoming strategic dialogue with the GCC. Assess the immediate impact of the military pension indexation on internal military morale. Counter Zakharova's new narratives on Ukraine's security guarantees and US missile sales. Monitor RF IO regarding Mironov's pension proposals, foreign currency sales, and energy sector development plans (all-Russia energy meeting, Rosenergoatom Primorye branch, low-carbon generation in Far East, energy cost monitoring). Monitor LNR social object IO. Prepare a response to Slutsky's claims of Western "hysteria" over SCO. Monitor new RF internal security threat from scammers. Monitor new RF IO regarding educational loan forgiveness, Rosseti investments in DFO, Alexandrov Ensemble rehearsals, gold tokenization, Rosatom borrowing, and Minfin stance on cash. Analyze Zelenskyy's statement on territorial concessions. Counter Zakharova's statement on Von der Leyen's plane incident. Monitor GTLC Baikal aircraft contract. Monitor reporting on the mine collapse in Yakutia, for any potential IO exploitation. Monitor RF IO regarding the Kuban Ministry of Emergency Situations official's appeal. Assess the implications of the Mongolian PM's arrival at the EEF. Monitor Zakharova's statements regarding NATO's Namejs 2025 exercises for any shifts in RF IO strategy towards NATO. Immediately counter Maria Zakharova's accusations regarding the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, and analyze her statements on Azerbaijan and the OSCE Minsk Group for any shifts in RF diplomatic strategy. Monitor RF milblogger activity ("Two Majors," "Fighterbomber," "Paratrooper's Diary") for immediate IO narratives and tactical insights. Monitor RF IO related to humanitarian aid for troops (thermal monoculars, comms equipment) and the Epstein video. Analyze participants and schedule for the "Coalition of the Resolute" summit in Paris.
  • Short Term (12-48 hours):
    • Ground: RF will attempt to consolidate gains in contested areas. UAF will continue active defense, counter-attacks, and tactical adaptations (e.g., ground robotics, counter-thermal cloak tactics). RF likely to pursue offensive in Kherson.
    • Air: RF will likely continue high-volume drone and missile strikes against defense industry, logistics, and population centers, expanding reach to Poltava and northern Kharkiv, and with a renewed focus on Odesa. Expect sustained ballistic missile threats, high-speed targets, and КАБ launches against various regions. Expect continued use of FAB-3000 against ground targets. UAF will focus on air defense replenishment and integration of new systems.
    • IO/Diplomatic: Sustained counter-propaganda efforts. Diplomatic engagements by Zelenskyy and partners to secure further aid. Monitoring the broader implications of RF-China-DPRK alignment. Management of public sentiment regarding mobilization and internal debates. Anticipation of RF IO related to the "09 09 25" Apple graphic. Continue to monitor RF IO on the "frozen conflict" scenario and develop counter-narratives that emphasize Ukraine's sovereignty and decision-making authority. Further analysis of RF economic policy statements (CBRF key rate, Far East energy funding, Mironov's pension proposals, foreign currency sales, energy sector development, Rosseti investments, Rosatom borrowing, Minfin stance on cash, VTB bank deposit growth) for indicators of long-term economic strategy and resilience. Monitor for RF leveraging the upcoming GCC dialogue for broader diplomatic messaging. Anticipate continued aggressive RF IO on Western aid to Ukraine and any notion of foreign military intervention. Counter new RF IO on educational loan forgiveness and domestic development. Monitor the fallout from the Amsterdam court ruling on Gazprom. Continue to monitor and counter Zakharova's narratives on Western "desperation" and "hybrid attacks". Monitor the development of the GTLC Baikal aircraft program. Assess the operational significance of the Mi-38 Arctic helicopters and their deployment timeline. Analyze the broader impact of Zakharova's statements on NATO exercises for regional stability and RF intent. Continue to monitor RF IO regarding religious issues, Azerbaijan, and the Caucasus for any escalatory narratives. Monitor the full scope of EEF messaging, including interviews, for insights into RF long-term economic and strategic planning. Assess the impact of UAF General Staff RF loss reports on RF morale and decision-making. Continue to monitor RF milblogger activity for any shifts in narrative or new combat footage.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Ground Forces: UAF is engaged in active defense and counter-actions across multiple contested sectors, particularly in Kupyansk, Sieversk, and Pokrovsk. While acknowledging RF presence in Kupyansk, UAF denies firm control of the city center, indicating a resilient and adaptive defense. Readiness is high, but forces are under sustained pressure. UAF General Staff's updated RF loss figures suggest UAF forces are inflicting significant attrition on RF personnel and equipment, indicating continued combat effectiveness and high readiness despite pressure. UAF is taking defensive measures in Kherson (Karantynny Island), suggesting readiness to counter potential RF advances in that sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Air Defense: UAF air defense remains highly active and effective, successfully intercepting numerous UAVs and missiles, including the large wave targeting Odesa and two UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Readiness is good, but sustained high-volume attacks place a constant demand on interceptor stockpiles. Integration of new systems from partners will boost future readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Naval Forces: Maintaining capability to counter RF Black Sea Fleet. Readiness for port operations is high, as evidenced by the launch of the largest port investment project and the successful defense of Odesa against recent UAV attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Logistics & Sustainment: Under pressure from RF deep strikes targeting railway infrastructure (Kirovohrad) and defense industry (Khmelnytskyi, Lutsk, Kramatorsk, Kyiv Oblast border). Sustainment of domestic drone/artillery production is a high priority. Medical evacuation and care for wounded remain critical. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Tactical Innovations: Deployment of ground robotic complexes ("NC13") by the 3rd Assault Brigade signifies a proactive approach to modernizing combat tactics and improving force protection/efficiency. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:
  • Successful interception of all 14 Shahed UAVs targeting Odesa/Fontanka from the Black Sea.
  • Successful interception and neutralization of RF UAV threats across multiple oblasts (Kyiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Sumy, Poltava, Chuhuiv Raion).
  • NEW: Successful interception of two RF UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • Successful counter-action against RF flag-planting assault groups in Kupyansk, denying RF firm control of the city center.
  • Deployment of "NC13" ground robotic complexes for combat, evacuation, and logistics missions.
  • Successful destruction of RF D-20 artillery and a 2S3 self-propelled howitzer with drone strikes.
  • Successful destruction of RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • Successful destruction of an RF engineering vehicle (likely AVLB).
  • Securing additional air defense systems from Nordic/Baltic countries.
  • Launch of Ukraine's largest port investment project, indicating long-term planning.
  • UAF special forces (Shybenyk Squad, 2nd Assault Company, Kraken) conducting operations in Sumy Oblast.
  • UAF General Staff reporting significant RF combat losses across personnel, AFVs, artillery, MLRS, anti-aircraft systems, UAVs, cruise missiles, and vehicles/fuel tanks, indicating successful UAF engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Setbacks:
  • Confirmed RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk, suggesting a deteriorating tactical situation despite UAF denials of full RF control.
  • Confirmed deadly artillery/FPV drone strikes on Kostiantynivka, resulting in civilian casualties.
  • Sustained artillery/drone attacks on Nikopol region, causing civilian damage.
  • Confirmed RF deep strike on railway infrastructure in Kirovohrad Oblast.
  • Claimed RF deep strikes on defense industry facilities (UAV/artillery electronics in Khmelnytskyi, "Motor" aircraft repair plant in Lutsk, "Donmashstroy" in Kramatorsk, "Spetsoboronmash" plant near Kyiv Oblast border).
  • RF strike on a UAF UAV operator's location in Kupyansk-Uzlovoy.
  • RF strike on a UAF UAV launch point for the 22nd Motorized Brigade.
  • Ballistic missile threats and high-speed targets over Sumy and КАБ launches towards Zaporizhzhia, indicating persistent and challenging aerial threats.
  • FAB-3000 strike on a UAF Forward Operating Base (PVD), indicating successful targeting of a potential troop concentration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Reports from RF sources that UAF are mining houses on Karantynny Island (Kherson) could indicate a successful RF intelligence gathering operation or a pre-emptive measure to justify future RF actions, implying a setback for UAF operational security. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Air Defense: Continued high demand for interceptor missiles for layered air defense. Integration and training for new Western AD systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Artillery Ammunition: Sustained high rate of fire across active fronts requires continuous resupply. Counter-battery fire capabilities are critical. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Counter-UAS/EW: Urgent requirement for advanced EW systems and counter-FPV capabilities, especially given RF's demonstrated use of anti-thermal cloaks and focus on UAF drone operators/mortar teams. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• ISR Assets: High demand for real-time ISR on contested areas (Kupyansk, Sieversk, Pokrovsk, Kherson) and for BDA of RF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Medical & Humanitarian: Continued need for medical supplies, personnel, and infrastructure to manage combat casualties and civilian victims of RF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Engineering Equipment: Need for equipment to repair damaged infrastructure, particularly after deep strikes, and for defensive preparations (e.g., in Kherson). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Winter Preparedness: Ongoing resource allocation for winter equipment, shelters, and energy resilience, as RF continues "difficult winter" narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF Narratives:
  • Military Success: Aggressively amplifying claims of ground gains in Kupyansk (claiming "about half" the city, UAF surrender, leveraging UAF source confirmation of infiltration to bolster narrative), Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, and Yanvarske. Promoting RF military effectiveness, modernized drones, and precision strikes (Lancet, FAB-3000). Claiming all groupings are "successfully advancing." Using generic morale-boosting posts from milbloggers ("No obstacles for the Guard!", "Good morning, country!"). Highlighting EW capabilities against UAF drones. NEW: Claims of UAF mining houses on Karantynny Island (Kherson) to justify future RF offensives. Claims of shooting down 46 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian territory and Black Sea for defensive capability IO.
  • Diplomatic/Economic Strength: Projecting global influence through deepening ties with China, DPRK, Vietnam, African nations, and the GCC. Leveraging Putin's China visit and EEF to showcase economic resilience, self-sufficiency, energy security (Sergey Tsivilev interview), and long-term development plans (Far East energy, military pensions). NEW: VTB Deputy Chairman Alexander Pakhomov's statement on projected Russian bank deposit growth at EEF (17% in 2025, over 67 trillion rubles) to project economic stability and confidence. Countering Western claims of isolation.
  • Undermining Ukraine/West: Questioning Zelenskyy's legitimacy, demanding referendums, inviting Zelenskyy to Moscow for talks. Exploiting Ukrainian internal debates (mobilization, exit for men, "frozen conflict" discussions, alleged corruption). Amplifying anti-Western rhetoric, accusing West of prolonging war, dismissing Western security guarantees as "guarantees of danger," and stating US missile sales contradict peace talks (Maria Zakharova). Leveraging Trump's comments (despite clarifications) to project RF diplomatic leverage. Propagating conspiracy theories (Epstein, German opposition deaths, Von der Leyen plane incident). Using derogatory language against Ukrainian leadership and people. Leveraging UAF statements on "frozen conflict." Pushing narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. Using religious narratives (Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra) to sow discord. NEW: TASS reporting on "missing minute" from Epstein video continues to amplify Western conspiracy theories. Basurin o Glavnom using "DAYinHISTORY" posts for nationalistic propaganda.
  • Internal Stability: Focusing on internal infrastructure projects (LNR social objects), social welfare (military pensions, family credit rates, educational loan forgiveness), and addressing internal security threats (scammers). Controlling information around incidents like the Volgograd/Sochi airport restrictions and the Yakutia mine collapse to manage public perception. NEW: "Operation Z" videos showcasing humanitarian aid (thermal monoculars, communication equipment) for troops advancing on Pokrovsk/Dnepropetrovsk region to bolster internal support for the war.
• UAF Counter-Narratives:
  • Denial/Refutation: Actively denying RF claims of full control in Kupyansk, acknowledging infiltration but highlighting successful counter-actions. Refuting Russian narratives on peace terms, emphasizing sovereignty and territorial integrity. NEW: Zelenskyy's statement that "territorial concessions by Ukraine will open the way for Putin to attack Europe" directly refutes RF peace terms.
  • Transparency/Resilience: Proactively communicating air raid alerts, BDA of RF strikes, and successful air defense interceptions (Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk). Showcasing domestic production (Bohdana, Vampire drones) and tactical innovations (ground robotics, "Shadow Unit" heavy drop video). Highlighting UAF resilience and combat effectiveness (daily RF loss reports, 840 RF personnel losses). Documenting RF war crimes and civilian casualties (Odesa aftermath).
  • International Support: Emphasizing securing new Western aid (air defense, diplomatic engagement with Trump and European leaders, "Coalition of the Resolute" summit). Leveraging diplomatic platforms to rally support.
  • Internal Cohesion: Addressing internal debates (mobilization, exit for men) with transparency. Promoting morale through soldier stories, medical heroics, and supporting military families. NEW: Oleksandr Vilkul's report on Kryvyi Rih being "controlled" maintains a calm and reassuring internal message.
• Intelligence Gap: Full scope and intent behind the "09 09 25" Apple logo graphic from Alex Parker Returns. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukrainian:
  • Resilience: Public sentiment remains largely determined, bolstered by successful air defense, tactical innovations, and international support. Successful downing of drones over Dnipropetrovsk and lifting of air alerts contribute positively.
  • Fatigue/Concern: Sustained deep strikes, civilian casualties (Kostiantynivka, Nikopol, Odesa aftermath), and intense ground combat (Kupyansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast with 487 strikes) likely contribute to weariness. Discussions on "frozen conflict" may generate anxiety.
  • Adaptation: Citizens are adapting to air raid alerts and emergency responses, demonstrating a high degree of preparedness. Reports of "controlled" situation in Kryvyi Rih indicate local stability.
• Russian:
  • Reinforced Loyalty: RF IO campaigns (military pensions, economic stability, nationalistic events, cultural diplomacy, "Two Majors" morale posts, VTB bank deposit projections, humanitarian aid for troops, Basurin's historical posts) aim to bolster public support for the war and confidence in leadership.
  • Information Control: Strict internal control over information (Belgorod, Volgograd/Sochi airports, Yakutia mine) aims to prevent dissent and manage public perception of setbacks or internal issues. Volgograd airport restrictions lifted indicates a return to perceived normalcy.
  • Dehumanization: Persistent dehumanizing rhetoric against Ukrainians (Alex Parker Returns, Kotsnews, Fighterbomber) aims to reduce empathy and justify continued aggression among the populace.
• Intelligence Gap: Reliable, independent polling on public sentiment in RF, particularly within military families. (LOW CONFIDENCE)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• For Ukraine:
  • Continued Military Aid: New air defense systems from Nordic/Baltic countries. EU intent to increase military spending by €2 trillion by 2031.
  • High-Level Diplomatic Engagement: Scheduled call between Zelenskyy, Macron, and Trump. US Ambassador Monica Crowley's statement about Trump seeking common ground with RF (though later clarified to be with Zelenskyy) may create a perception of wavering US support if not carefully managed. NEW: "Coalition of the Resolute" summit in Paris, with reported participants and schedule, indicates continued high-level diplomatic support and coordination for Ukraine.
  • Economic Resilience: Launch of largest port investment project.
• For Russia:
  • Deepening Alliances: Stronger ties with China (Putin visit, trade, military parade, LED screens), DPRK (military transport, Kim Jong Un invitation/support, subsidized flights), Vietnam. Engagement with SCO and GCC.
  • Exploiting Western Divisions: Leveraging statements by Slovak PM Fico, Austrian opposition leader, and former Polish President Duda to portray Western disunity and opposition to supporting Ukraine. NEW: TASS reports on "missing minute" from Epstein video used to discredit Western institutions.
  • Economic Diplomacy: Using EEF as a platform to project economic strength and attract investment from non-Western partners (Mongolian PM attendance). NEW: VTB Deputy Chairman Alexander Pakhomov's statement on Russian bank deposit growth at EEF. RF officials (Saldo) leveraging EEF to push narratives.
• Intelligence Gap: Specific terms and quantities of military or dual-use goods being exchanged between RF and DPRK following the confirmed military transport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

1. Sustained Ground Offensive with Prioritized Kupyansk Effort, Push into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and Development of Kherson Offensive: RF will maintain high-intensity ground operations on Sieversk, Kupyansk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, Yanvarske, and Pokrovsk. The main effort will be to secure full control of Kupyansk, employing urban combat tactics and attempting to cut off UAF reinforcements. RF will exploit any confirmed gains around Kamyshevakha and Yanvarske to further push westward into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Concurrently, RF will develop offensive operations in the Kherson direction, potentially initiating probing attacks and leveraging claims of UAF defensive preparations on Karantynny Island to justify further advances. Localized infiltration tactics using anti-thermal cloaks will become more prevalent across the front, specifically targeting UAF drone operators and mortar teams. RF will continue to utilize heavy unguided aerial bombs (FAB-3000) against suspected UAF PVDs and troop concentrations to soften defensive positions. RF milbloggers will continue to provide real-time battlefield reports and propaganda to support these ground efforts, particularly from the Pokrovsk direction, emphasizing RF advances and combat prowess. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
2. Adaptive Multi-Vector Aerial Strike Campaign with Focus on DIB, Logistics, EW, and Sustained Airspace Defense: RF will continue to launch medium-to-high volume missile (ballistic, cruise, КАБ) and drone (Shahed, Lancet, FPV) strikes. Targeting will prioritize Ukraine's defense industrial base (UAV/artillery electronics, aircraft repair plants, specialized defense plants near Kyiv Oblast border), railway infrastructure (Kirovohrad/Znamenka), and logistics hubs, with continued opportunistic strikes on population centers (Odesa, Nikopol, Kostiantynivka, Kharkiv university, Chuhuiv community, Pokrovsk). Expect new waves against Odesa from the Black Sea. Ballistic missile threats from the northeast, high-speed targets on Sumy, and КАБ launches on Zaporizhzhia will persist. RF will increasingly leverage its EW capabilities, as demonstrated on the Zaporizhzhia front, to disrupt UAF drone operations and reconnaissance, and will integrate diverse reconnaissance drone groups ("Rubikon") to enhance target acquisition and air defense capabilities. RF will adapt strike tactics based on UAF air defense responses to attempt saturation and breakthrough. RF will maintain an active air defense posture over its own territory and the Black Sea, attempting to neutralize UAF cross-border UAV strikes and projecting a defensive capability (e.g., claiming 46 UAVs shot down). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
3. Aggressive Information Warfare & Diplomatic Consolidation: RF IO will intensify, focusing on portraying significant ground victories (especially Kupyansk and any new gains in Kherson), showcasing RF's growing global influence (China, DPRK, EEF, GCC), and amplifying anti-Western narratives (US/NATO disunity, sanctions ineffectiveness, Western aid as dangerous). Putin's narrative of conditional peace talks (Zelenskyy's legitimacy, referendums, meeting in Moscow) will be central. RF will exploit any perceived Western weakness or internal debates (Trump's position, UAF "frozen conflict" discussions, internal Ukrainian corruption). Maria Zakharova will continue to lead aggressive counter-IO, refuting Western claims and weaponizing religious and regional diplomatic issues (Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, Azerbaijan/OSCE Minsk Group). RF milbloggers will continue to reinforce morale and military narratives domestically. RF will actively leverage economic projections from the EEF (e.g., VTB bank deposit growth) to project internal stability and resilience. IO efforts will continue to showcase humanitarian aid to frontline units and leverage Western internal issues (Epstein video) and historical narratives for propaganda. RF officials will use platforms like the EEF to push narratives justifying future offensives (e.g., Saldo on UAF mining Karantynny Island). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

1. Decisive Operational Collapse in Donbas and Deep Penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast & Kherson: RF achieves a decisive operational breakthrough or encirclement of UAF forces in Sieversk, forcing widespread UAF redeployments. This is coupled with a large-scale, coordinated ground attack in Kupyansk, consolidating full control of the city and establishing a bridgehead for further westward advance into Kharkiv Oblast. A rapid breakthrough from Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, and Yanvarske further deepens RF penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, threatening key logistical infrastructure and major cities. Simultaneously, a concerted RF offensive in the Kherson direction, potentially involving amphibious assaults across the Dnipro, capitalizes on UAF defensive preparations on Karantynny Island, leading to significant territorial gains and a multi-front collapse and widespread panic. The widespread use of high-yield FAB-3000 bombs on UAF PVDs could accelerate this MDCOA by severely degrading UAF defensive capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
2. Systemic Air Defense Degradation and Strategic Infrastructure Collapse with Cyber Amplification (Including Odesa Port) & Critical EW Overmatch: RF launches an overwhelming, multi-wave missile and drone attack, systematically degrading UAF air defense capabilities, potentially leveraging DPRK-supplied munitions and/or overwhelming EW capabilities (as demonstrated on the Zaporizhzhia front) to blind UAF defenses and drone operations. This would be followed by or concurrent with a sophisticated cyber-attack targeting critical infrastructure SCADA systems, aiming for systemic, multi-sector failure of defense industry, energy, transportation (railway hubs, bridges), and C2 nodes. This could lead to prolonged, widespread disruptions, cripple maritime trade via Odesa, and significantly damage national morale and economic function. The demonstrated capability to shoot down 46 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian territory and the Black Sea could be used by RF as justification or a pre-emptive measure for more aggressive, sustained, and larger-scale aerial offensives against Ukraine, framed as retaliation or defensive actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
3. Coordinated Hybrid Escalation in Baltic/NATO Border Regions & Mass Cyber/IO Offensive against Western Institutions, Reinforced by China-DPRK Axis, and Direct Challenge to Western Aid for Ukraine: RF executes a coordinated, large-scale hybrid operation in the Baltic region, combining covert drone incursions with intensified cyber-attacks against critical infrastructure and aggressive information operations designed to test NATO Article 5 and draw significant NATO resources away from Ukraine. Simultaneously, RF launches a mass cyber-attack and associated disinformation campaign against critical Western institutions (e.g., financial systems, government infrastructure, media), potentially utilizing the "09 09 25" Apple logo graphic as a component of a large-scale influence operation to sow widespread discord, confusion, and distrust in Western systems and leadership. The confirmed RF-DPRK military axis and China's demonstrated military capabilities (amplified by RF IO) add a significant dimension, indicating a potential for a broadly coordinated anti-Western hybrid strategy that leverages the capabilities and influence of all three nations. This MDCOA is further exacerbated by RF IO directly challenging the legitimacy and effectiveness of Western security guarantees for Ukraine, aiming to sow discord among allies and weaken international resolve. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Immediate (0-12 hours):
  • Ground: RF will continue intense ground assaults. UAF must make immediate decisions on reinforcing Kupyansk, Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, Yanvarske, and Pokrovsk; executing counter-attacks; adapting counter-infiltration tactics against anti-thermal cloaks; and conducting BDA on FAB-3000 strike. Urgent verification of UAF mining on Karantynny Island (Kherson) and assessment of potential RF offensive actions in the Kherson direction. Immediate BDA of "Shadow Unit" drone strike.
  • Air: Continue active air defense posture; immediate BDA on claimed deep strikes. Urgent assessment of new ballistic missile threats, high-speed targets on Sumy, and КАБ launches on Zaporizhzhia for impact and follow-on. Immediate BDA for the 46 Ukrainian UAVs claimed shot down by RF. Monitor for further RF UAV activity over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast despite successful interceptions.
  • IO/Diplomatic: Prepare for Trump-Zelenskyy-European leaders call; immediate counter-IO against RF claims of Kupyansk control and any new ambiguous IO. Assess implications of RF-DPRK military transport. Analyze Sergey Tsivilev's and Alexander Pakhomov's EEF interviews for economic projections. Monitor RF IO related to Karantynny Island mining, humanitarian aid for troops, and the Epstein video. Analyze the participants and schedule for the "Coalition of the Resolute" summit in Paris. Counter Zelenskyy's statement on territorial concessions.
• Short Term (12-48 hours):
  • Ground: RF will attempt to consolidate gains; UAF will continue active defense and tactical adaptations. RF will likely initiate probing or more significant offensive actions in Kherson.
  • Air: RF likely to continue high-volume drone and missile strikes. UAF focus on air defense replenishment and integration of new systems. RF will continue to defend its airspace actively.
  • IO/Diplomatic: Sustained counter-propaganda; diplomatic engagements for aid. Monitoring broader implications of RF-China-DPRK alignment. Management of public sentiment regarding mobilization and internal debates. Anticipation of RF IO related to the "09 09 25" Apple graphic. Continue to analyze RF economic policy statements and EEF developments for strategic intent. Continue to counter RF narratives on Karantynny Island and other IO efforts.
• Medium Term (2-7 days):
  • Ground: RF will attempt to establish new defensive lines and prepare for follow-on offensives if initial gains are made. UAF will seek to stabilize lines and potentially launch localized counter-offensives. The development of the Kherson front will become a critical factor.
  • Air: RF will likely adjust strike patterns and targets based on UAF air defense responses. UAF integration of new air defense assets becomes critical.
  • IO/Diplomatic: Continued diplomatic pressure for aid and sanctions. RF will seek to capitalize on any perceived Western fatigue or divisions. Ukrainian winter preparedness narratives will gain prominence.

6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. ISR Priority for Kupyansk (CRITICAL), Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka/Yanvarske, Pokrovsk Infiltration, KHERSION (Karantynny Island Mining/RF Offensive Prep), NEW UAV/MISSILE LAUNCH AREAS/TACTICS (Including Rubikon Groups, UAV Launch Point Targeting, Northern Sumy to Chernihiv Route, Ballistic Missiles, High-Speed Targets on Sumy, КАБ on Zaporizhzhia, FAB-3000 Strikes, RF Cross-Border UAV Activity), Anti-Thermal Cloaks, RF IO "09 09 25" Graphic, RF-DPRK Military Transport, RF Internal Security Incidents (Volgograd/Sochi, Scammers, Yakutia Mine), RF-China Military IO, RF-GCC Dialogue, and RF Internal Welfare/Economic IO (VTB Deposit Growth, Humanitarian Aid), NATO Exercises (Namejs 2025), RF IO on Religious/Caucasus Issues, RF EW Capabilities on Zaporizhzhia Front, RF Milblogger Activity: **Immediately task all-source ISR to establish definitive ground truth on RF control and infiltration in Kupyansk, providing real-time intelligence for UAF counter-attacks and interdiction of reinforcements. Simultaneously, maintain high-priority ISR on Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, and Yanvarske to assess claimed RF advances and potential for deep penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Elevate ISR on the Pokrovsk axis to detect and interdict unconventional infiltration attempts and document civilian damage. CRITICAL PRIORITY: Intensify ISR on the Kherson direction, specifically Karantynny Island and its approaches, to verify RF claims of UAF mining and assess any indications of imminent RF offensive operations, including potential amphibious landing zones or river crossing preparations. Prioritize tracking ALL new RF UAV/missile launch areas and adaptive tactics, especially any new waves targeting Odesa, and urgently track ballistic missile launches (northeast direction), high-speed targets (Sumy), and КАБ launches (Zaporizhzhia) to determine intent and likely targets, and provide immediate BDA for confirmed strikes. Conduct urgent technical analysis and ISR on the newly identified "Rubikon" air defense combat groups, specifically identifying the operational roles of the Leleka-100, RQ-35 Heidrun, Vector, and VT-260 drones, to develop effective countermeasures. Conduct immediate BDA and assessment of the ЛМУР strike on the UAF UAV launch point for the 22nd Motorized Brigade, identifying the type of UAVs and equipment lost and any residual operational impact. Conduct immediate BDA for the FAB-3000 strike on the UAF PVD to determine casualties and damage. Actively monitor for RF use of anti-thermal imaging cloaks across all sectors, developing rapid detection and targeting solutions. Initiate immediate collection on the ambiguous "09 09 25" Apple logo graphic from Alex Parker Returns for any associated activity, to preemptively identify potential cyber or information operations targeting Western or Ukrainian interests. Conduct urgent and comprehensive ISR on the RF military transport to North Korea to identify cargo, personnel exchanges, and the nature of deepening military cooperation. Monitor and analyze any further RF internal security incidents, particularly those affecting airports (e.g., Volgograd, Sochi) and the reported increase in scammer activity (Nemkin), and the mine collapse in Yakutia, and the Simonenko appeal against dismissal. Conduct deep analysis of RF IO on China's military parade and its links to Taiwan to understand the broader geopolitical narratives being pushed and their implications for the anti-Western axis. Elevate collection on the upcoming RF-GCC strategic dialogue, particularly for any military cooperation or arms deals. Intensify monitoring of RF internal IO regarding military pensions (including Mironov's proposal for working pensioners and Slutsky's family credit rates), economic stability (CBRF key rate, Far East energy funding, foreign currency sales, all-Russia energy meeting, Rosenergoatom Primorye branch, low-carbon generation in Far East, energy cost monitoring, Rosseti investments in DFO, Rosatom borrowing for NPPs, gold tokenization, remote biometric sales, Minfin stance on cashless payments, VTB projected bank deposit growth), and any cultural events (Alexandrov Ensemble rehearsals, Basurin's historical posts) at the EEF to understand internal messaging and morale. Monitor RF IO concerning LNR social objects and the Khabarovsk governor's openness to ExxonMobil. Prioritize tracking the new RF UAV group from northern Sumy to Chernihiv Oblast, identifying its trajectory, potential targets, and any associated ground force movements. Monitor the GTLC Baikal aircraft contract for any military or dual-use implications. Monitor RF statements and ISR on NATO's Namejs 2025 exercises in Latvia for any indications of RF response, counter-activity, or propaganda aimed at NATO cohesion. Intensify collection on RF IO related to religious issues (Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra) and diplomatic maneuvering in the Caucasus (Azerbaijan, OSCE Minsk Group) to anticipate future narratives and potential hybrid actions. Prioritize collection on RF EW capabilities, specifically those highlighted on the Zaporizhzhia front, to identify systems, tactics, and their effectiveness against UAF drones. Actively monitor RF milblogger channels ("Two Majors," "Fighterbomber," "Paratrooper's Diary," "Operation Z") for real-time tactical insights, confirmed engagements, and emerging IO narratives, paying close attention to reports from the Pokrovsk and Dnepropetrovsk directions. Conduct BDA for the RF claim of 46 Ukrainian UAVs shot down over Russian regions and the Black Sea, and assess any implications for UAF cross-border operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2. Aggressive Counter-Attacks and Reinforcements in Kupyansk (CRITICAL), Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka/Yanvarske, Enhance Counter-Infiltration Tactics, and Leverage All-Domain Assets - INCLUDING KHERSION DEFENSIVE MEASURES: Immediately commit tactical reserves and robust fire support (artillery, HIMARS, BM-21 Grad counter-battery) to decisively counter RF advances in Kupyansk, Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, and Yanvarske, with explicit orders to deny consolidation and disrupt westward movement. Refine and disseminate TTPs for countering small-group infiltration (Pokrovsk) and specifically develop rapid counter-tactics against anti-thermal imaging cloaks, prioritizing protection for drone operators and mortar teams. Accelerate operational deployment of ground robotic complexes ("NC13"). Systematically target RF artillery (D-20, 2S3, 2S19 Msta-S), armored vehicles (BTR-82), UAV warehouses, and fortifications using drone and precision artillery strikes. Prioritize the defense and hardening of UAV launch points. Provide all necessary support (ISR, fire, logistical) to UAF special forces in Sumy Oblast. Enhance counter-mobility operations to target RF engineering vehicles. Maintain intense pressure on RF elements in the Pokrovsk area, including the 506th Regiment. Review and adapt defensive measures against the use of heavy unguided aerial bombs (FAB-3000) against UAF PVDs and troop concentrations, considering dispersal and hardening of forward positions. CRITICAL ACTION: Given RF claims of UAF mining Karantynny Island, immediately enhance defensive preparations in Kherson, including counter-mobility obstacles, increased ISR coverage, and pre-positioned fire support, to thwart any potential RF offensive across the Dnipro or attempts to exploit perceived UAF defensive measures. Increase the use of drone-guided ordnance, as demonstrated by "Shadow Unit," to target RF positions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3. Accelerate Air Defense Modernization, Munition Resupply, and EW (CRITICAL URGENCY), Counter-FPV/Advanced Drones, Protect Defense Industry and Educational Facilities, Strengthen Civilian Protection (CRITICAL URGENCY for Odesa - though threat neutralized, this remains high priority for future attacks) and Ballistic Missile Threats: Conduct immediate, comprehensive review of air defense dispositions, prioritizing systems for critical defense industry (UAV/artillery electronics, aircraft repair plants, "Spetsoboronmash" plant near Kyiv Oblast border), railway/bridge infrastructure, and population centers across all affected oblasts. Despite the recent successful neutralization of UAV threats against Odesa and other regions, continue to prioritize reinforcement of air defense for Odesa and its critical port infrastructure, preparing for future waves of Shahed drones and adaptive RF tactics. Intensify coordination for urgent replenishment of interceptors and fast-track establishment of new missile/drone/fuel production capabilities in Denmark. Prioritize training for new EW/SHORAD systems and rapid counter-measures for adapted RF drones, including those identified in the "Rubikon" air defense combat groups. Urgently develop and deploy counter-FPV drone capabilities and enhanced physical/air defense security for defense industry sites and educational facilities. Leverage successful UAF strikes on RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar for intelligence on RF air defense vulnerabilities. Dedicate significant air defense resources to track and neutralize the new RF UAV group detected in northern Sumy Oblast, targeting Chernihiv Oblast. Immediately activate all ballistic missile warning systems and deploy interceptor assets to counter the new ballistic missile threats from the northeast and high-speed targets on Sumy. Enhance air defense coverage for Zaporizhzhia Oblast to counter КАБ launches. Develop rapid response protocols for FAB-3000 attacks on ground positions, including early warning and shelters. Urgently enhance UAF EW capabilities, especially on the Zaporizhzhia front, to counter and jam RF drones and prevent them from operating freely. Accelerate the development and deployment of counter-UAS platforms specifically designed to defeat RF EW-hardened drones. Maintain high vigilance and readiness for any renewed RF UAV activity over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, learning from the recent successful interceptions. Continue to monitor RF air defense actions against UAF cross-border UAVs to identify vulnerabilities or new RF defensive capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4. High-Priority Intelligence Collection on RF-China-DPRK Military Cooperation, China Trade Impact, RF Negotiation Stance, RF Internal Issues (Military Pilot Murder, Belgorod Information Control, Burning Man Death, Scammers, Civilian Infrastructure Updates, Domestic History Initiatives, Austrian Opposition, Volgograd/Sochi Airport Incidents, Economic Stability, Metering Device Policy, Social Welfare Proposals (including working pensioners, family credit rates, educational loan forgiveness), Humanitarian Aid Collections, Fuel Market Stability, Russian-Chinese LED Screens, EEF Activities (VTB deposit growth, Saldo claims), Foreign Currency Sales, Energy Sector Development, LNR Social Objects, Gazprom Legal Actions, Yakutia Mine Collapse, GTLC Baikal Aircraft, Simonenko Appeal), and Dehumanization Tactics (AND NATO ISR, Trump-Zelenskyy Call, RF IO Narratives, Gaza City Imagery, China Military Parade, Zakharova Statements, Slutsky SCO Comments, Alexandrov Ensemble Cultural Diplomacy, Mi-38 Helicopters, Namejs 2025, Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, Azerbaijan/OSCE Minsk Group, Sergey Tsivilev EEF Interview, RF Milblogger Content, Epstein Video): Immediately elevate collection requirements on RF-DPRK military cooperation (arms, technical specs, delivery, Moscow-Pyongyang flights, confirmed military transport to NK, content of friendly meeting) and the impact of increased China-Russia trade. Collect and analyze RF statements regarding negotiation (Zelenskyy's legitimacy, referendums, meeting conditions, direct invitation, "frozen conflict" rhetoric, Zakharova's statements on Ukraine's security guarantees and US missile sales, RF dismissal of foreign military intervention, Zelenskyy's statement on territorial concessions) to understand shifts in strategic objectives. Monitor RF internal issues, including the Krasnodar military pilot murder, Belgorod information control measures, the Volgograd and Sochi airport restrictions (to determine underlying cause), the reported increase in scammer activity (Nemkin), and potential exploitation of the Burning Man death, as well as the mine collapse in Yakutia, and the Simonenko appeal against dismissal. Document and analyze RF dehumanization tactics (graffiti, IO content, actor-volunteer statements, Basurin's "DAYinHISTORY" posts). Conduct urgent, all-source collection on the Trump-Zelenskyy call agenda and messaging, including US Ambassador Monica Crowley's statement on Trump seeking "common ground" with RF. Analyze the role and rhetoric of the RF actor-volunteer Georgiy Teslya-Gerasimov for insights into RF morale and IO messaging. Monitor RF internal IO related to shortened hot water outages, the "Day of Domestic History" proposal, the Radiohead concert news, the new metering device verification policy, the new Duma proposal for family credit rates, the summer aid collection for Donbas children, Mironov's proposal for working pensioner indexation, educational loan forgiveness proposals, and LNR social object initiatives for broader IO objectives. Analyze RF IO leveraging the Austrian opposition leader's call for EU-RF cooperation to understand their influence tactics. Analyze the use of Gaza City before/after imagery for its intended IO impact. Monitor RF IO regarding economic stability (low unemployment, investment in Russky Island, fuel market stability, foreign currency revenue sales, all-Russia energy meeting, Rosenergoatom Primorye branch, low-carbon generation in Far East, energy cost monitoring, Rosseti investments in DFO, Rosatom borrowing for NPPs, gold tokenization, remote biometric sales, Minfin stance on cashless payments, GTLC Baikal aircraft contract, VTB projected bank deposit growth) for its impact on public perception. Conduct deep analysis of RF IO on China's military parade and its links to Taiwan to understand the broader geopolitical narratives being pushed and their implications for the anti-Western axis. Assess RF IO leveraging the US court ruling on Harvard grants. Monitor RF IO regarding the development of Russian-Chinese LED screens and the ongoing Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, including participant messaging (Sergey Tsivilev's interview, Alexander Pakhomov's statements), and the participation of the Mongolian Prime Minister, to assess RF's efforts to project economic resilience and international engagement. Place high priority on collecting and analyzing information regarding Lavrov's participation in the RF-GCC strategic dialogue, particularly for potential military, economic, or political agreements that could impact the conflict. Continuously monitor RF official statements on military pension increases and broader economic policy for insights into long-term strategic planning and internal stability. Analyze Slutsky's comments on Kallas and SCO for deeper understanding of RF diplomatic strategy. Monitor the Amsterdam court ruling against Gazprom. Monitor Zakharova's statements regarding Western "hybrid attacks" (Von der Leyen's plane incident) for insights into RF's counter-IO strategies. Collect information on the deployment of new Mi-38 Arctic helicopters for their capabilities and strategic implications. Monitor Maria Zakharova's statements regarding NATO's Namejs 2025 exercises for any shifts in RF rhetoric or indications of heightened regional tensions. Prioritize collection on Maria Zakharova's statements concerning the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra and Ukrainian religious policy, as well as her comments on Azerbaijan's prisoner release and the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group, to assess their influence on internal and international narratives and RF's diplomatic objectives in the region. Intensify collection on RF milblogger content ("Two Majors," "Fighterbomber," "Paratrooper's Diary," "Operation Z") for granular details on combat operations, unit movements, and immediate IO responses, particularly focusing on how they frame ground operations in Pokrovsk and Kupyansk, and humanitarian aid. Monitor TASS reporting on the Epstein video for continued IO exploitation. Collect and analyze the full list and schedule of participants for the "Coalition of the Resolute" summit in Paris. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5. Robust Counter-Propaganda and Strategic Communications (Kupyansk (CRITICAL)/Sieversk/Kamyshevakha/Novoselivka/Yanvarske, KHERSION (Karantynny Island), Civilian Casualties, Winter Narrative, RF-China-DPRK-Vietnam Alignment, Infrastructure Strikes, Internal Debates, Domestic Production, Ground Robotics, Putin's Statements, IPSO Army, Mobilization, Anti-Thermal Cloaks, RF IO "09 09 25" Graphic, UAF MFA Counter-Threats, Odesa Threat and Strikes, Frozen Conflict Narrative, Rubikon Drone Groups, RF Internal Economic/Tech IO, EEF Messaging, Zakharova Statements, Slutsky SCO Comments, Trump's Position, LNR Social Objects, Zelenskyy's Concessions Statement, Gazprom Ruling, Von der Leyen Plane Incident, GTLC Baikal Aircraft, Yakutia Mine, Mi-38 Helicopters, Namejs 2025, Simonenko Appeal, Religious Discord, Caucasus Diplomacy, FAB-3000 Strikes, RF EW Capabilities, RF Milblogger Content, Epstein Video, Humanitarian Aid for Troops, RF Air Defense Claims): Proactively disseminate verified information on RF attacks and high UAF interception rates. Immediately develop messaging to counter RF claims of gains in Kupyansk, Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, and Yanvarske, providing factual context and highlighting UAF resilience with visual evidence. Leverage RF successes against UAF motorized units near Pokrovsk to highlight brutality and underscore need for support. Proactively counter RF "difficult winter" narratives by showcasing preparedness and international support. Highlight RF's reliance on rogue/neutral states (China, DPRK, Vietnam) and internal issues. Utilize BDA from defense industry, fuel, railway, and civilian strikes (Kostiantynivka, Nikopol, Kharkiv university, Chuhuiv community, Odesa/Fontanka, Pokrovsk, UAF UAV launch point) to highlight RF war crimes. Address internal debates transparently (mobilization, exit for men, discussions on a "frozen conflict" scenario). Counter Putin's statements on Zelenskyy's legitimacy and meeting conditions, emphasizing Ukrainian sovereignty. Pre-emptively counter GUR's warning about RF IPSO army. Actively leverage the upcoming Trump-Zelenskyy-European leaders call to project high-level Western support, and directly counter any RF attempts to frame Trump's position as seeking "common ground" with Russia against Ukrainian interests. Actively counter RF's use of anti-thermal imaging cloaks. Prepare comprehensive counter-IO for any new RF cyber or information operations indicated by the "09 09 25" Apple logo graphic. Leverage the destruction of RF S-300 and radar for IO. Amplify the UAF MFA's strong response to Putin's threats. Immediately disseminate public warnings and protective measures for Odesa regarding incoming drone threats, demonstrating responsible governance and civilian protection, and provide rapid updates on current strike impact. Develop clear messaging regarding discussions on a "frozen conflict" scenario, emphasizing that such decisions rest with the Ukrainian President and that reconstruction support would be vital, to counter RF attempts to leverage this for its own narrative. Publicly highlight and counter the operational capabilities of new RF drone groups, such as "Rubikon," to raise awareness and foster resilience. Develop counter-narratives to RF internal IO regarding economic stability (fuel market, LED screens, EEF (VTB deposit growth, Sergey Tsivilev's interview), military pension increases, Far East energy funding, foreign currency sales, energy sector development, LNR social objects, educational loan forgiveness, Rosseti investments, Rosatom borrowing, Minfin stance on cash, GTLC Baikal aircraft) to prevent the perception of RF strength and normalcy. Proactively address any RF attempts to use Lavrov's GCC dialogue for anti-Ukrainian or anti-Western narratives. Aggressively counter Maria Zakharova's new narratives on Ukraine's security guarantees being a "danger" to Europe and US missile sales undermining peace talks. Also counter Slutsky's claims of Western "hysteria" over SCO results. Reiterate Ukraine's rejection of foreign military intervention. Amplify Zelenskyy's statement that territorial concessions will lead to war in Europe. Highlight the Amsterdam court ruling against Gazprom as a win for Ukraine. Develop immediate counter-IO to Zakharova's claims regarding Von der Leyen's plane incident, emphasizing Russian disinformation tactics. If necessary, provide factual updates on the Yakutia mine collapse without amplifying Russian narratives. Counter RF IO leveraging the Simonenko appeal. Actively counter RF IO related to new Mi-38 Arctic helicopters by highlighting their limited military utility in the current conflict. Counter Maria Zakharova's statements regarding NATO's Namejs 2025 exercises by emphasizing NATO's defensive posture and the transparency of its drills. Develop immediate counter-IO to Maria Zakharova's accusations regarding the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, highlighting religious freedom in Ukraine and exposing RF's attempts to sow discord. Counter RF narratives on Azerbaijan and the OSCE Minsk Group by emphasizing Ukraine's sovereignty and condemning RF interference in regional affairs. Document and publicize the indiscriminate nature and destructive power of FAB-3000 strikes. Directly counter RF claims of EW superiority, particularly on the Zaporizhzhia front, by highlighting UAF adaptations and continued drone effectiveness. Actively monitor and counter narratives propagated by RF milbloggers, providing factual and timely rebuttals to their claims of RF success or UAF setbacks, and countering propaganda related to humanitarian aid for troops. CRITICAL: Develop and disseminate clear messaging to counter RF claims of UAF mining Karantynny Island (Kherson), framing it as RF pre-emptive justification for aggression. Highlight the capabilities demonstrated by "Shadow Unit" and other UAF units. Actively publicize the results and coordination of the "Coalition of the Resolute" summit in Paris. Counter RF claims of shooting down 46 Ukrainian UAVs by providing factual information on UAF drone operations and objectives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

6. Enhanced Border Security and Security for Mass Gatherings: Conduct immediate review of border security protocols to prevent illegal crossings and manage mobilization challenges. Implement heightened security for the Rosh Hashanah pilgrimage in Uman. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

//END REPORT//