Archived operational intelligence briefing
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: RF deep strikes continue to target Ukraine's defense industry (claimed strike on UAV/artillery electronics in Khmelnytskyi, new claims of strikes on "Motor" aircraft repair plant in Lutsk and "Donmashstroy" in Kramatorsk, and now claims of Kalibr/Geran strikes on "Spetsoboronmash" plant near Kyiv Oblast border), and railway infrastructure (confirmed strikes in Kirovohrad). Civilian targeting remains high, with confirmed deadly artillery/FPV drone strikes on Kostiantynivka and sustained attacks on the Nikopol region. Ground operations are intensely focused on Sieversk and Kupyansk. RF continues to claim significant gains and even UAF surrenders in Kupyansk, while UAF actively denies these claims and demonstrates successful counter-actions. DeepState is now confirming RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk, though UAF maintains RF lacks "firm control" over the city center. RF claims of assaults on Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) and full control of Yanvarske, marking a significant westward push. UAF demonstrates tactical innovation with ground robotic complexes, secures additional air defense from Nordic/Baltic countries, and maintains significant domestic artillery/drone production. Diplomatic and information warfare efforts continue, with UAF securing further Western support and RF attempting to sow discord and amplify anti-Western narratives. Putin concluded his China visit, making several statements regarding Ukraine, NATO, and economic cooperation with China, projecting a dual message of "peace" vs. "military solution." RF is actively conducting artillery strikes in the Kharkiv direction, with a confirmed drone strike on a university. NATO ISR aircraft activity is reported near Kaliningrad/Belarus border, indicating heightened regional vigilance. European leaders, including Zelenskyy and Macron, are scheduled for a call with Trump, highlighting continued high-level diplomatic engagement. New reports confirm an RF strike on a UAF UAV operator's location in Kupyansk-Uzlovoy, and a new RF strike on a UAF UAV launch point for the 22nd Motorized Brigade. UAF continues to engage RF positions with drone-guided artillery/mortars. Trump has indicated he will speak with Putin in the coming days to "determine what will happen" regarding Russia and Ukraine, though later reports clarify Trump meant a call with Zelenskyy, not Putin, but US Ambassador Monica Crowley now states Trump wants to find common ground with RF in various spheres during talks with Putin. RF IO is heavily pushing narratives of Ukrainian corruption. New RF drone group activity in Chernihiv region, southwestern direction. UAF has successfully downed a "Gerbera with a rear-view camera" drone (likely an RF reconnaissance asset). UAF successfully destroyed RF D-20 artillery and a 2S3 self-propelled howitzer with drone strikes. New Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast. UAF special forces (Shybenyk Squad, 2nd Assault Company, Kraken) are conducting operations in Sumy Oblast. RF continues to use BM-21 Grad MLRS. RF claims to have returned Putin to Russia from China. Ukraine launches its largest port investment project, indicating economic resilience and long-term planning. Ukrainian forces report Russians are using anti-thermal imaging cloaks for infiltration tactics, particularly targeting drone operators and mortar teams. Remaining 5 of 14 Shahed drones are still active (threat neutralized). RF IO emphasizes Putin's conditional willingness to meet Zelenskyy in Moscow, contrasting with Zelenskyy's statements on Ukraine's "Korean Scenario" and the need for US security guarantees. RF IO also focuses on internal control in Belgorod concerning UAV attack information. UAF claims significant destruction of RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reports a power outage in Krasnodar Krai due to a UAV strike. UAF acknowledges RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk. RF IO is leveraging discussion of a "frozen conflict" for Ukraine. RF IO is pushing a narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. RF drones originating from Donetsk Oblast are now reported on course for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF sources continue to claim significant advances in Kupyansk, with UAF sources also confirming RF infiltration and presence, albeit noting a lack of "firm control" over the city center, and indicating fragmented UAF defense. RF UAV group detected in Southern Sumy Oblast, moving west. RF UAVs on course for Poltava Oblast. Several groups of RF UAVs detected in northern Kharkiv Oblast (Chuhuiv Raion). UAF MFA responded to Putin's threats, emphasizing "no regional centers captured in 3.5 years of war." RF military transport aircraft confirmed arriving in North Korea, with coffins draped in North Korean flags visible, suggesting potential military assistance or return of personnel. Explosion heard in Chuhuiv community, Kharkiv Oblast. RF sources claim a UAF Armored Vehicle Launched Bridge (AVLB) was hit and destroyed. This video is miscaptioned and shows a destroyed RF engineering vehicle, likely by UAF forces. RF reports five Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Rostov Oblast. New groups of RF UAVs are inbound from the Black Sea towards Odesa/Fontanka. The air raid alert for Odesa and Chornomorsk has been lifted following successful UAF interception of all incoming Shahed UAVs. The Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) continues in Vladivostok, with RF officials promoting economic stability and development. RF is actively promoting a rise in military pensions and a continued increase in the 2026 budget, signaling long-term commitment to military personnel welfare. RF is also discussing financing for new energy generation in the Far East, and plans for an all-Russia energy meeting and a Primorye branch of Rosenergoatom, aiming for 25% low-carbon generation in the Far East. RF IO is now actively countering claims of Western support for Ukraine, with Maria Zakharova stating that Ukraine's security guarantees are "guarantees of danger" for Europe, and that US missile sales contradict settlement talks. RF "Russkaya Vesna" is showcasing large-scale social object creation in Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) on "presidential order", including sports complexes and maternity hospitals.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
Intentions:
Courses of Action (COAs):
Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):
Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:
ISR Priority for Kupyansk (CRITICAL), Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka/Yanvarske, Pokrovsk Infiltration, NEW UAV/MISSILE LAUNCH AREAS/TACTICS (Including Rubikon Groups, UAV Launch Point Targeting, Northern Sumy to Chernihiv Route), Anti-Thermal Cloaks, RF IO "09 09 25" Graphic, RF-DPRK Military Transport, RF Internal Security Incidents (Volgograd/Sochi, Scammers, Yakutia Mine), RF-China Military IO, RF-GCC Dialogue, and RF Internal Welfare/Economic IO: **Immediately task all-source ISR to establish definitive ground truth on RF control and infiltration in Kupyansk, providing real-time intelligence for UAF counter-attacks and interdiction of reinforcements. Simultaneously, maintain high-priority ISR on Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, and Yanvarske to assess claimed RF advances and potential for deep penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Elevate ISR on the Pokrovsk axis to detect and interdict unconventional infiltration attempts and document civilian damage. Prioritize tracking ALL new RF UAV/missile launch areas and adaptive tactics, especially any new waves targeting Odesa, to determine intent and likely targets, and provide immediate BDA for confirmed strikes. Conduct urgent technical analysis and ISR on the newly identified "Rubikon" air defense combat groups, specifically identifying the operational roles of the Leleka-100, RQ-35 Heidrun, Vector, and VT-260 drones, to develop effective countermeasures. Conduct immediate BDA and assessment of the ЛМУР strike on the UAF UAV launch point for the 22nd Motorized Brigade, identifying the type of UAVs and equipment lost and any residual operational impact. Actively monitor for RF use of anti-thermal imaging cloaks across all sectors, developing rapid detection and targeting solutions. Initiate immediate collection on the ambiguous "09 09 25" Apple logo graphic from Alex Parker Returns for any associated activity, to preemptively identify potential cyber or information operations targeting Western or Ukrainian interests. Conduct urgent and comprehensive ISR on the RF military transport to North Korea to identify cargo, personnel exchanges, and the nature of deepening military cooperation. Monitor and analyze any further RF internal security incidents, particularly those affecting airports (e.g., Volgograd, Sochi) and the reported increase in scammer activity (Nemkin), and the mine collapse in Yakutia, for indicators of internal instability or increased threat perception. Conduct deep analysis of RF IO on China's military parade and its links to Taiwan to understand the broader geopolitical narratives being pushed and their implications for the anti-Western axis. Elevate collection on the upcoming RF-GCC strategic dialogue, particularly for any military cooperation or arms deals. Intensify monitoring of RF internal IO regarding military pensions (including Mironov's proposal for working pensioners and Slutsky's family credit rates), economic stability (CBRF key rate, Far East energy funding, foreign currency sales, all-Russia energy meeting, Rosenergoatom Primorye branch, low-carbon generation in Far East, energy cost monitoring, Rosseti investments in DFO, Rosatom borrowing for NPPs, gold tokenization, remote biometric sales, Minfin stance on cash), and any cultural events (Alexandrov Ensemble rehearsals) at the EEF to understand internal messaging and morale. Monitor RF IO concerning LNR social objects and the Khabarovsk governor's openness to ExxonMobil. Prioritize tracking the new RF UAV group from northern Sumy to Chernihiv Oblast, identifying its trajectory, potential targets, and any associated ground force movements. Monitor the GTLC Baikal aircraft contract for any military or dual-use implications. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Aggressive Counter-Attacks and Reinforcements in Kupyansk (CRITICAL), Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka/Yanvarske, Enhance Counter-Infiltration Tactics, and Leverage All-Domain Assets: Immediately commit tactical reserves and robust fire support (artillery, HIMARS, BM-21 Grad counter-battery) to decisively counter RF advances in Kupyansk, Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, and Yanvarske, with explicit orders to deny consolidation and disrupt westward movement. Refine and disseminate TTPs for countering small-group infiltration (Pokrovsk) and specifically develop rapid counter-tactics against anti-thermal imaging cloaks, prioritizing protection for drone operators and mortar teams. Accelerate operational deployment of ground robotic complexes ("NC13"). Systematically target RF artillery (D-20, 2S3, 2S19 Msta-S), armored vehicles (BTR-82), UAV warehouses, and fortifications using drone and precision artillery strikes. Prioritize the defense and hardening of UAV launch points. Provide all necessary support (ISR, fire, logistical) to UAF special forces in Sumy Oblast. Enhance counter-mobility operations to target RF engineering vehicles. Maintain intense pressure on RF elements in the Pokrovsk area, including the 506th Regiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Accelerate Air Defense Modernization, Munition Resupply, and EW (CRITICAL URGENCY), Counter-FPV/Advanced Drones, Protect Defense Industry and Educational Facilities, Strengthen Civilian Protection (CRITICAL URGENCY for Odesa - though threat neutralized, this remains high priority for future attacks): Conduct immediate, comprehensive review of air defense dispositions, prioritizing systems for critical defense industry (UAV/artillery electronics, aircraft repair plants, "Spetsoboronmash" plant near Kyiv Oblast border), railway/bridge infrastructure, and population centers across all affected oblasts. Despite the recent successful neutralization of UAV threats against Odesa and other regions, continue to prioritize reinforcement of air defense for Odesa and its critical port infrastructure, preparing for future waves of Shahed drones and adaptive RF tactics. Intensify coordination for urgent replenishment of interceptors and fast-track establishment of new missile/drone/fuel production capabilities in Denmark. Prioritize training for new EW/SHORAD systems and rapid counter-measures for adapted RF drones, including those identified in the "Rubikon" air defense combat groups. Urgently develop and deploy counter-FPV drone capabilities and enhanced physical/air defense security for defense industry sites and educational facilities. Leverage successful UAF strikes on RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar for intelligence on RF air defense vulnerabilities. Dedicate significant air defense resources to track and neutralize the new RF UAV group detected in northern Sumy Oblast, targeting Chernihiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
High-Priority Intelligence Collection on RF-China-DPRK Military Cooperation, China Trade Impact, RF Negotiation Stance, RF Internal Issues (Military Pilot Murder, Belgorod Information Control, Burning Man Death, Scammers, Civilian Infrastructure Updates, Domestic History Initiatives, Austrian Opposition, Volgograd/Sochi Airport Incidents, Economic Stability, Metering Device Policy, Social Welfare Proposals (including working pensioners, family credit rates, educational loan forgiveness), Humanitarian Aid Collections, Fuel Market Stability, Russian-Chinese LED Screens, EEF Activities, Foreign Currency Sales, Energy Sector Development, LNR Social Objects, Gazprom Legal Actions, Yakutia Mine Collapse, GTLC Baikal Aircraft), and Dehumanization Tactics (AND NATO ISR, Trump-Zelenskyy Call, RF IO Narratives, Gaza City Imagery, China Military Parade, Zakharova Statements, Slutsky SCO Comments, Alexandrov Ensemble Cultural Diplomacy): Immediately elevate collection requirements on RF-DPRK military cooperation (arms, technical specs, delivery, Moscow-Pyongyang flights, confirmed military transport to NK, content of friendly meeting) and the impact of increased China-Russia trade. Collect and analyze RF statements regarding negotiation (Zelenskyy's legitimacy, referendums, meeting conditions, direct invitation, "frozen conflict" rhetoric, Zakharova's statements on Ukraine's security guarantees and US missile sales, RF dismissal of foreign military intervention, Zelenskyy's statement on territorial concessions) to understand shifts in strategic objectives. Monitor RF internal issues, including the Krasnodar military pilot murder, Belgorod information control measures, the Volgograd and Sochi airport restrictions (to determine underlying cause), the reported increase in scammer activity (Nemkin), and potential exploitation of the Burning Man death, as well as the mine collapse in Yakutia. Document and analyze RF dehumanization tactics (graffiti, IO content, actor-volunteer statements). Conduct urgent, all-source collection on the Trump-Zelenskyy call agenda and messaging, including US Ambassador Monica Crowley's statement on Trump seeking common ground with RF. Analyze the role and rhetoric of the RF actor-volunteer Georgiy Teslya-Gerasimov for insights into RF morale and IO messaging. Monitor RF internal IO related to shortened hot water outages, the "Day of Domestic History" proposal, the Radiohead concert news, the new metering device verification policy, the new Duma proposal for family credit rates, the summer aid collection for Donbas children, Mironov's proposal for working pensioner indexation, educational loan forgiveness proposals, and LNR social object initiatives for broader IO objectives. Analyze RF IO leveraging the Austrian opposition leader's call for EU-RF cooperation to understand their influence tactics. Analyze the use of Gaza City before/after imagery for its intended IO impact. Monitor RF IO regarding economic stability (low unemployment, investment in Russky Island, fuel market stability, foreign currency revenue sales, all-Russia energy meeting, Rosenergoatom Primorye branch, low-carbon generation in Far East, energy cost monitoring, Rosseti investments in DFO, Rosatom borrowing for NPPs, gold tokenization, remote biometric sales, Minfin stance on cashless payments, GTLC Baikal aircraft contract) for its impact on public perception. Conduct deep analysis of RF IO on China's military parade and its links to Taiwan to understand the broader geopolitical narratives being pushed and their implications for the anti-Western axis. Assess RF IO leveraging the US court ruling on Harvard grants. Monitor RF IO regarding the development of Russian-Chinese LED screens and the ongoing Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, including participant messaging, to assess RF's efforts to project economic resilience and international engagement. Place high priority on collecting and analyzing information regarding Lavrov's participation in the RF-GCC strategic dialogue, particularly for potential military, economic, or political agreements that could impact the conflict. Continuously monitor RF official statements on military pension increases and broader economic policy for insights into long-term strategic planning and internal stability. Analyze Slutsky's comments on Kallas and SCO for deeper understanding of RF diplomatic strategy. Monitor the Amsterdam court ruling against Gazprom. Monitor Zakharova's statements regarding Western "hybrid attacks" (Von der Leyen's plane incident) for insights into RF's counter-IO strategies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Robust Counter-Propaganda and Strategic Communications (Kupyansk (CRITICAL)/Sieversk/Kamyshevakha/Novoselivka/Yanvarske, Civilian Casualties, Winter Narrative, RF-China-DPRK-Vietnam Alignment, Infrastructure Strikes, Internal Debates, Domestic Production, Ground Robotics, Putin's Statements, IPSO Army, Mobilization, Anti-Thermal Cloaks, RF IO "09 09 25" Graphic, UAF MFA Counter-Threats, Odesa Threat and Strikes, Frozen Conflict Narrative, Rubikon Drone Groups, RF Internal Economic/Tech IO, EEF Messaging, Zakharova Statements, Slutsky SCO Comments, Trump's Position, LNR Social Objects, Zelenskyy's Concessions Statement, Gazprom Ruling, Von der Leyen Plane Incident, GTLC Baikal Aircraft, Yakutia Mine): Proactively disseminate verified information on RF attacks and high UAF interception rates. Immediately develop messaging to counter RF claims of gains in Kupyansk, Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, and Yanvarske, providing factual context and highlighting UAF resilience with visual evidence. Leverage RF successes against UAF motorized units near Pokrovsk to highlight brutality and underscore need for support. Proactively counter RF "difficult winter" narratives by showcasing preparedness and international support. Highlight RF's reliance on rogue/neutral states (China, DPRK, Vietnam) and internal issues. Utilize BDA from defense industry, fuel, railway, and civilian strikes (Kostiantynivka, Nikopol, Kharkiv university, Chuhuiv community, Odesa/Fontanka, Pokrovsk, UAF UAV launch point) to highlight RF war crimes. Address internal debates transparently (mobilization, exit for men, discussions on a "frozen conflict" scenario). Counter Putin's statements on Zelenskyy's legitimacy and meeting conditions, emphasizing Ukrainian sovereignty. Pre-emptively counter GUR's warning about RF IPSO army. Actively leverage the upcoming Trump-Zelenskyy-European leaders call to project high-level Western support, and directly counter any RF attempts to frame Trump's position as seeking "common ground" with Russia against Ukrainian interests. Actively counter RF's use of anti-thermal imaging cloaks. Prepare comprehensive counter-IO for any new RF cyber or information operations indicated by the "09 09 25" Apple logo graphic. Leverage the destruction of RF S-300 and radar for IO. Amplify the UAF MFA's strong response to Putin's threats. Immediately disseminate public warnings and protective measures for Odesa regarding incoming drone threats, demonstrating responsible governance and civilian protection, and provide rapid updates on current strike impact. Develop clear messaging regarding discussions on a "frozen conflict" scenario, emphasizing that such decisions rest with the Ukrainian President and that reconstruction support would be vital, to counter RF attempts to leverage this for its own narrative. Publicly highlight and counter the operational capabilities of new RF drone groups, such as "Rubikon," to raise awareness and foster resilience. Develop counter-narratives to RF internal IO regarding economic stability (fuel market, LED screens, EEF, military pension increases, Far East energy funding, foreign currency sales, energy sector development, LNR social objects, educational loan forgiveness, Rosseti investments, Rosatom borrowing, Minfin stance on cash, GTLC Baikal aircraft) to prevent the perception of RF strength and normalcy. Proactively address any RF attempts to use Lavrov's GCC dialogue for anti-Ukrainian or anti-Western narratives. Aggressively counter Maria Zakharova's new narratives on Ukraine's security guarantees being a "danger" to Europe and US missile sales undermining peace talks. Also counter Slutsky's claims of Western "hysteria" over SCO results. Reiterate Ukraine's rejection of foreign military intervention. Amplify Zelenskyy's statement that territorial concessions will lead to war in Europe. Highlight the Amsterdam court ruling against Gazprom as a win for Ukraine. Develop immediate counter-IO to Zakharova's claims regarding Von der Leyen's plane incident, emphasizing Russian disinformation tactics. If necessary, provide factual updates on the Yakutia mine collapse without amplifying Russian narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Enhanced Border Security and Security for Mass Gatherings: Conduct immediate review of border security protocols to prevent illegal crossings and manage mobilization challenges. Implement heightened security for the Rosh Hashanah pilgrimage in Uman. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
//END REPORT//
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