Situation Report

SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - 032130Z SEP 25 (UPDATE 36)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: RF deep strikes continue to target Ukraine's defense industry (claimed strike on UAV/artillery electronics in Khmelnytskyi, new claims of strikes on "Motor" aircraft repair plant in Lutsk and "Donmashstroy" in Kramatorsk, and now claims of Kalibr/Geran strikes on "Spetsoboronmash" plant near Kyiv Oblast border), and railway infrastructure (confirmed strikes in Kirovohrad). Civilian targeting remains high, with confirmed deadly artillery/FPV drone strikes on Kostiantynivka and sustained attacks on the Nikopol region. Ground operations are intensely focused on Sieversk and Kupyansk. RF continues to claim significant gains and even UAF surrenders in Kupyansk, while UAF actively denies these claims and demonstrates successful counter-actions, though DeepState is now confirming RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk. RF claims of assaults on Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) and full control of Yanvarske, marking a significant westward push. UAF demonstrates tactical innovation with ground robotic complexes, secures additional air defense from Nordic/Baltic countries, and maintains significant domestic artillery/drone production. Diplomatic and information warfare efforts continue, with UAF securing further Western support and RF attempting to sow discord and amplify anti-Western narratives. Putin concluded his China visit, making several statements regarding Ukraine, NATO, and economic cooperation with China, projecting a dual message of "peace" vs. "military solution." RF is actively conducting artillery strikes in the Kharkiv direction, with a confirmed drone strike on a university. NATO ISR aircraft activity is reported near Kaliningrad/Belarus border, indicating heightened regional vigilance. European leaders, including Zelenskyy and Macron, are scheduled for a call with Trump, highlighting continued high-level diplomatic engagement. New reports confirm an RF strike on a UAF UAV operator's location in Kupyansk-Uzlovoy. UAF continues to engage RF positions with drone-guided artillery/mortars. Trump has indicated he will speak with Putin in the coming days to "determine what will happen" regarding Russia and Ukraine, though later reports clarify Trump meant a call with Zelenskyy, not Putin. RF IO is heavily pushing narratives of Ukrainian corruption. New RF drone group activity in Chernihiv region, southwestern direction. UAF has successfully downed a "Gerbera with a rear-view camera" drone (likely an RF reconnaissance asset). UAF successfully destroyed RF D-20 artillery and a 2S3 self-propelled howitzer with drone strikes. New Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast. UAF special forces (Shybenyk Squad, 2nd Assault Company, Kraken) are conducting operations in Sumy Oblast. RF continues to use BM-21 Grad MLRS. RF claims to have returned Putin to Russia from China. Ukraine launches its largest port investment project, indicating economic resilience and long-term planning. Ukrainian forces report Russians are using anti-thermal imaging cloaks for infiltration tactics, particularly targeting drone operators and mortar teams. Remaining 5 of 14 Shahed drones are still active. RF IO emphasizes Putin's conditional willingness to meet Zelenskyy in Moscow, contrasting with Zelenskyy's statements on Ukraine's "Korean Scenario" and the need for US security guarantees. RF IO also focuses on internal control in Belgorod concerning UAV attack information. UAF claims significant destruction of RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF reports a power outage in Krasnodar Krai due to a UAV strike. UAF acknowledges RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk. RF IO is leveraging discussion of a "frozen conflict" for Ukraine. RF IO is pushing a narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. RF drones originating from Donetsk Oblast are now reported on course for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF sources continue to claim significant advances in Kupyansk, with UAF sources also confirming RF infiltration and presence, albeit noting a lack of "firm control" over the city center, and indicating fragmented UAF defense. NEW: RF UAV group detected in Southern Sumy Oblast, moving west.

  • Air-Missile Strikes:
    • RF КАБ Launches (Donetsk Oblast): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (КАБ) by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Tactical Aviation Activity (Southeast Direction): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "activity of enemy tactical aviation in the south-eastern direction!" (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Lancet Strike on UAF Radar: MoD Russia (RF source with video) claims a Lancet loitering munition hit a Ukrainian troops' radar with a direct strike, covering more than 60km. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF source, UAF confirmation pending on radar hit)
    • RF Strike on Khmelnytskyi (UAV/Artillery Electronics Enterprise): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) claims RF comprehensive strikes hit an enterprise manufacturing electronic systems for enemy UAVs and artillery in Khmelnytskyi. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF source, UAF confirmation pending)
    • RF UAV Group (Chernihiv to Kyiv Oblast): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Group of enemy UAVs from Chernihiv region on course for Vyshhorod district of Kyiv region." NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Разведывательный БпЛА из Черниговщины на Киевщину (Броварский район). Задействованы средства для его сбития." (Reconnaissance UAV from Chernihiv region to Kyiv region (Brovary district). Means for its downing have been engaged.) NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "🛸 Розвідувальний БпЛА курсом на Обухівський район Київщини." (Reconnaissance UAV on course for Obukhiv district of Kyiv region.) (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Strikes on Kirovohrad Railway Infrastructure: Colonelcassad (RF source with photos) reports "consequences of night arrivals of 'Geraniums' (Shahed drones) at a locomotive depot in Kirovohrad region." Claims serious train delays due to strikes on railway infrastructure in central Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Военкор Котенок (RF source with photo) provides further photo evidence of damage to a railway depot in Znamenka (Kirovohrad Oblast), confirming the strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Drone and Artillery Attacks on Nikopol region: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (UAF source with photos) reports "From UAV attacks and artillery, Nikopol region trembled all day. The aggressor attacked the district center, Marganets, Myriv, Pokrovsk, Chervonohryhorivka communities." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF Strike on RF UAV Warehouse: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF source with video) reports "💥Udar po skladu BPLA" (Strike on UAV warehouse). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Strikes on Lutsk "Motor" Aircraft Repair Plant (NEW): Colonelcassad (RF source with video) posts multiple videos showing explosions and fires in Lutsk, with caption "Удары по авиаремонтному заводу 'Мотор' в Луцке." (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF source, UAF confirmation pending on target and BDA)
    • RF Strike on "Donmashstroy" in Kramatorsk (NEW): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source with video) reports "Сегодня ночью удар пришелся по территории 'Донмашстрой' в Краматорске." (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF source, UAF confirmation pending on target and BDA)
    • RF UAV on Kharkiv Course (NEW): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Enemy UAV in the north of Kharkiv region on course for Kharkiv." NEW: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА reports "Ворожий БпЛА типу «Молнія» влучив в землю на території навчального закладу в Салтівському районі." (Enemy UAV type "Molniya" hit the ground on the territory of an educational institution in Saltivskyi district.) NEW: РБК-Україна reports "У навчальному закладі вибито 12 вікон, пошкоджено паркан. Постраждалих та загиблих немає, - мер Харкова." (In the educational institution, 12 windows were broken, the fence was damaged. No casualties or deaths, - mayor of Kharkiv). NEW: РБК-Україна reports "Прилетіло на територію навчального закладу у Харкові." (It landed on the territory of an educational institution in Kharkiv). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Strike on UAF UAV Operator Location (NEW): Colonelcassad (RF source with video and photo) claims a strike on the "Railroader Palace of Culture" (ДК "Железнодорожник") in Kupyansk-Uzlovoy, which "became the location for UAF UAV operators." Video shows a building hit, smoke plume. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF source, UAF confirmation pending)
    • RF Animated Strike Scheme (NEW): Colonelcassad (RF source with video) posts an "Animated scheme of strikes on the territory of Ukraine September 02 - September 03, 2025" showing alleged drone strikes across multiple Ukrainian Oblasts including Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Odesa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF Claims Kalibr/Geran Strikes on "Spetsoboronmash" Plant (NEW): Colonelcassad (RF source with satellite photos) claims 3 Kalibr missiles and Geran drones struck the "Spetsoboronmash" plant near the border of Kyiv Oblast (approx. coordinates 50.7234937660985, 29.530825640053422). Satellite photos are provided as "before and after." (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF source, satellite imagery interpretation required, UAF confirmation pending on target and BDA)
    • RF UAV Group (Chernihiv Region, SW Direction) (NEW): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Група ворожих БпЛА на півночі Чернігівщини у південно-західному напрямку." (Group of enemy UAVs in the north of Chernihiv region in a south-western direction.) (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF Downs RF "Gerbera" Drone (NEW): STERNENKO (UAF source with video) reports "WU Samurai збили Герберу з камерою заднього огляду🔪" (WU Samurai shot down a Gerbera with a rear-view camera). This indicates a successful UAF interception of a reconnaissance drone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF BM-21 Grad MLRS Firing (NEW): MoD Russia (RF source with video) depicts a Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS firing rockets, with drone footage showing impacts and a damaged vehicle. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Drone Threat Donetsk Oblast (NEW): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "🛵 Донеччина - загроза ударних БпЛА." (Donetsk region - threat of attack UAVs.) (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Drone Groups Pokrovsky District (NEW): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "🛵 Декілька груп БпЛА на Донеччині (Покровський район)." (Several groups of UAVs in Donetsk region (Pokrovsky district).) (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Drone Threat Belozerske/Dobropillya (NEW): Николаевский Ванёк reports "14 мопедов курсом на/через Белозёрское/Доброполье" (14 mopeds [Shaheds] on course for/through Belozerske/Dobropillya). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF КАБ Launches (Sumy Oblast) (NEW): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "🚀Пуски КАБ ворожою тактичною авіацією на Сумщину." (Launches of Guided Aerial Bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy region.) (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Shahed Threat (Remaining 5) (NEW): Николаевский Ванёк reports "из всех мопедов осталось 5" (from all mopeds, 5 remain). This likely refers to the previously reported 14 Shaheds heading towards Belozerske/Dobropillya, indicating successful UAF interception or diversion of 9 drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF Drone Strike on RF 2S19 Msta-S (NEW): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source with video) shows a UAF drone striking a Russian 2S19 Msta-S self-propelled howitzer in a forested area. This is a UAF tactical success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Drone Group (Kharkiv to Donetsk Oblast) (NEW): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "🛵 Група БпЛА з Харківщини на Донеччину." (Group of UAVs from Kharkiv region to Donetsk region.) (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF Claims Destruction of RF S-300 PU and Radar (NEW): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source with photos) reports "🔥Знищені сьогодні вранці російські ПУ С-300 та РЛС 9С36 від ЗРК «Бук» в районі н.п. Олексіївка, ТОТ Запорізької області" (Destroyed this morning Russian S-300 PU and 9S36 radar from Buk SAM system in the area of Oleksiivka, temporarily occupied Zaporizhzhia region). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Power Outage in Krasnodar Krai from UAV Strike (NEW): ASTRA (RF source with video) reports "Около 4 тысяч человек остались без электричества после удара БПЛА по тяговой подстанции в Краснодарском крае 1 сентября" (About 4 thousand people were left without electricity after a UAV strike on a traction substation in Krasnodar Krai on September 1). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Drone Group (Donetsk to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) (NEW): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "🛵 Група БпЛА з Донеччини на Дніпропетровщину." (Group of UAVs from Donetsk region on course for Dnipropetrovsk region.) (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Drone Group (Southern Sumy, Westward Course) (NEW): Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "🛵 Група БпЛА на півдні Сумщини курсом на захід." (Group of UAVs in the south of Sumy region on course for the west.) (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ground Operations:
    • RF Claims Liberation of Kamyshevakha (Donetsk DPR): MoD Russia (RF source with video) claims the liberation of Kamyshevakha in the "Donetsk People's Republic," reaching the border of the Dnepropetrovsk region. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF source, UAF confirmation pending)
    • RF Claims Control of Half of Kupyansk: Воин DV (RF source with video) claims control of "about half" of the city. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF source, directly contradicts UAF)
    • RF Claims Continued Pressure on Sieversk: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source with map) posts a map depicting military movements on the Sieversk direction. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF source) NEW: Военкор Котенок (RF source with photo) posts imagery related to Sieversk direction, likely reinforcing claims of RF advances. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF source)
    • Putin Claims All RF Groupings Successfully Advancing: ТАСС (RF source) reports Putin stated "All groupings of the Russian Armed Forces are successfully advancing in all directions." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF Drone Strikes on Kharkiv Direction: Kadyrov_95 (RF source with video) shows drone strikes targeting Ukrainian military positions. New footage from Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source with video) also shows a drone strike on a UAF 120mm mortar system in a settlement. MoD Russia (RF source with video) further reports Msta-S self-propelled howitzers of the Sever Group of Forces eliminated a command post, UAV launch points, armoured vehicles, and manpower of the AFU in the Kharkov direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Kostiantynivka Artillery/FPV Drone Strikes: РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF sources with photos) report RF attacks on Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, resulting in 9 killed and 7 wounded. NEW: ASTRA (RF source, quotes authorities) confirms "Девять человек погибли при сегодняшних обстрелах Константиновки" (Nine people died in today's shelling of Kostiantynivka). ASTRA (RF source with video) also shows aftermath, police, and injured civilians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Claims UAF Unit Surrendered in Kupyansk: Colonelcassad (RF source with video) claims "UAF unit surrendered in Kupyansk direction." (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF source, UAF confirmation pending, visual evidence is not definitive of surrender)
    • UAF Denies RF Control of Kupyansk (Reinforced): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF source with video) shows drone footage of UAF engaging RF personnel attempting to plant a Russian flag in Kupyansk, followed by a display of the captured flag. РБК-Україна (UAF source with video) and Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source with video) further reinforce this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF Destroying RF Artillery/Vehicles/Antennas/Infantry: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF source with video) shows drone footage of UAF destroying an "enemy gun," a "civilian vehicle used by the enemy," an "enemy quad bike," an "enemy antenna," and "enemy infantry in cover." (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Операция Z (RF source with video) reports from "Военкоры Русской Весны" claiming "Битва у Покровска: «🅾️тважные» без остановки жгут НАТОвскую технику, пехоту и позиции врага" (Battle near Pokrovsk: "Brave ones" incessantly burn NATO equipment, infantry and enemy positions). The content shows drone footage of strikes against Russian military assets, including a BMP, enemy personnel, and an enemy antenna. This is UAF success, not RF. NEW: MoD Russia (RF source with video) shows drone footage from reconnaissance drones observing and engaging Russian military assets. Specifically, 'Орудие Д20 - уничтожено' (D-20 gun destroyed) and 'САУ 2С3' (2S3 Akatsiya self-propelled howitzer) are identified as destroyed, and fortified positions/trenches are struck. This video, despite the RF source, depicts UAF successes against RF assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF Drone Hunting RF Positions: Підрозділ Shadow (UAF source with video) shows drone footage of an artillery shell impacting a wooded area identified as "orc positions." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF 3rd Assault Brigade Ground Robotics: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF source with video) reports the 3rd Assault Brigade has created an "NC13" company of strike ground robotic complexes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF Tactical Deception and Elimination of RF Soldiers: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UAF source with video) from the 425 OSHP "Skelya" reports a Ukrainian soldier successfully deceived and eliminated two advancing RF soldiers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Engage Fortified Positions: MoD Russia video showing a Lancet strike on a fortified position. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF Drone Strike on RF Armored Vehicles (NEW): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (UAF source with video) shows drone footage of UAF operation targeting Russian armored vehicles (BTR-82) in the Zaporizhzhia direction, with multiple strikes and one BTR directly hit/destroyed. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF Tanker Volunteer (NEW): Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UAF source with photo) highlights "Топа," a volunteer tanker with previous experience, who rejoined the UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF Drone Strike on RF Fortifications (NEW): Президентська бригада ЗСУ (UAF source with video) shows drone footage of Ukrainian forces targeting and destroying Russian defensive positions/fortifications, likely trenches or dug-in positions, with explosive charges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF FPV Drone Strike on Checkpoint (NEW): Воин DV (RF source with video) claims an FPV drone strike by the 16th Separate Spetsnaz Brigade against an "enemy checkpoint," claiming 2 personnel and a burning checkpoint. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF source, UAF confirmation pending)
    • UAF Drone Destroys RF Vehicle (NEW): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source with video) shows aerial footage from a drone (likely UAF, given watermark) showing a ground vehicle engulfed in flames after a strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF tactical success)
    • UAF Special Forces Operations Sumy Oblast (NEW): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source with video) reports "🔥Спецпризначенці підрозділу “Shybenyk squad” спільно з 2-ю штурмовою ротою та спецпідрозділом ГУР «KRAKEN» показують справжній русоріз на Сумщині" (Special forces of the "Shybenyk squad" unit together with the 2nd assault company and GUR special unit "KRAKEN" show a real "rusorez" in Sumy region). The video shows a soldier in a ghillie suit moving through a damaged village, entering a bunker. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Assualt on Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) and Yanvarske (NEW): Colonelcassad (RF source with map imagery) claims "Assault groups of Transbaikalians began the assault on Novoselivka in Dnepropetrovsk Oblast. Despite constant enemy counterattacks, the fighters managed to gain a foothold in the eastern part of the village. Yanvarske also came under the full control of the Russian army." (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF source, UAF confirmation pending on both Novoselivka and Yanvarske. Note: Yanvarske (Yantarne) is a small village in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast near Donetsk Oblast border). This is a significant claim of a westward advance.
    • RF Use of Anti-Thermal Imaging Cloaks (NEW): STERNENKO (UAF source with video) reports "Росіяни зараз масово користуються анти-тепловізійними плащами, щоб у темну пору просочуватися крізь наші позиції. Їхня мета проста – не лізти в бій на передньому краї, а обійти оборону, вийти нам у тил і полювати на операторів дронів чи мінометників. Це стало стандартною тактикою ворога, і вони застосовують її практично всюди, у тому числі на нашій ділянці фронту." (Russians are now massively using anti-thermal imaging cloaks to infiltrate our positions in the dark. Their goal is simple - not to engage in frontal combat, but to bypass defenses, get behind us and hunt drone operators or mortar teams. This has become a standard enemy tactic, and they use it almost everywhere, including on our sector of the front.) (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF Artillery/Drone Strikes (NEW): STERNENKO (UAF source with video) showcases thermal imaging footage of what appears to be UAF munitions impacting Russian positions. The video displays the 'Strike Group 81 Apache' logo. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF Drone Footage - Damaged Military Vehicle (NEW): Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UAF source with video) posts drone footage over a landscape with damaged buildings, showing a destroyed military vehicle, possibly an armored personnel carrier, on a dirt road. This suggests recent combat and UAF surveillance capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source with video) posts close-up footage of rubble and a damaged military vehicle's leg/track assembly, consistent with aftermath documentation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF Drone Footage - Damaged Civilian Buildings (NEW): Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UAF source with video) posts drone footage showing severely damaged multi-story residential buildings in Pokrovsk, with one partially collapsed. This indicates significant destruction of civilian infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF Acknowledges RF Presence in Kupyansk (NEW): ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (UAF source with photo and text) reports "🏚 Наявність противника в Куп'янську та його спроби просочування в місто" (Presence of the enemy in Kupyansk and his attempts to infiltrate the city). This contradicts earlier UAF denials of RF presence and reinforces RF claims of infiltration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Infiltration in Kupyansk (UAF Confirmation) (NEW): Colonelcassad (RF source) notes that UAF (implicitly DeepState) confirms RF advances in Kupyansk, though UAF states that RF lacks "firm control" over the city center and that only "small groups" are infiltrating deep. This indicates a contested but successful deep penetration by RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Advances in Kupyansk (RF IO using DeepState) (NEW): Операция Z (RF source, quoting "Военкоры Русской Весны") posts a photo message and an image (likely drone/satellite imagery overlaid with map) claiming "🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦Накапливаются и развивают успех: о боевой работе российских войск в Купянске пишет Deep State" (Accumulating and developing success: Deep State writes about the combat work of Russian troops in Kupyansk). This is RF IO leveraging UAF sources to reinforce its narrative of success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Destroys UAF in Pokrovsk (NEW): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source with video and text) shows destroyed UAF motorized units and casualties on a road leading to Pokrovsk, implying a successful RF engagement against UAF reinforcements/units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Actor-Volunteer Interview (NEW): Военкор Котенок (RF source with video) features Georgiy Teslya-Gerasimov, an actor-volunteer in the SMO zone in DPR for four years, emphasizing morale, creativity, and the reality of prolonged conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
  • RF Internal/Diplomatic:
    • Putin Concludes China Visit, Press Conference: ТАСС (RF source) confirms the conclusion of Putin's visit and states results were "highly positive." New TASS video shows Putin completing his visit and flying to Vladivostok for the EEF. Colonelcassad (RF source with video) also shows Putin departing China, escorted by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. NEW: ТАСС reports Putin returned to Russia and landed in Vladivostok. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Colonelcassad (RF source with video) posts "Полное видео пресс-конференции Путина в Пекине." (Full video of Putin's press conference in Beijing.) (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Colonelcassad (RF source with video) posts video of Putin speaking at a podium in a Chinese-style building, confirming a diplomatic event. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Putin on Meetings with Zelenskyy: ТАСС reports Putin never excluded a meeting with Zelenskyy, but questioned the "sense" now that Zelenskyy's term has "expired." Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source with video) reinforces this, showing Putin stating his readiness to meet Zelenskyy. NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UAF source, quoting Putin) posts "🟢Если Зеленский готов - пусть приезжает в Москву, такая встреча состоится, — путин". This confirms Putin's direct invitation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Putin on Ukraine's Security Guarantees: ТАСС reports Putin stating Ukraine has the right to choose its security system but not at Russia's expense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Putin on NATO/EU Membership: ТАСС reports Putin stating RF always objected to Ukraine's NATO membership but not EU membership. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Putin on Territories/Referendum: ТАСС reports Putin stating territorial questions for Kyiv require a referendum. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Putin on Russia's Intent in SMO: ТАСС reports Putin stating RF in the SMO is fighting not for territories, but for people's rights. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Putin on Russia-China Gas Supplies: ТАСС reports Putin stating pipeline gas supplies from Russia to China could reach 100 billion cubic meters per year. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Putin Blames West for Ukraine Tragedy: ТАСС reports Putin stating the West is to blame for the tragedy in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Putin on 2022 Peace Offer: ТАСС reports Putin claiming RF offered to withdraw troops from Donbas in 2022. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Putin Sees "Light in the Tunnel" for Ukraine Settlement but Ready Militarily: ТАСС reports Putin sees "light at the end of the tunnel" for Ukrainian settlement but states RF is also "ready to solve the tasks set by military means." Операция Z (RF source with video) reinforces Putin's statement that RF will achieve its goals militarily if no agreement is reached. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • Putin on US/Western Seizure of RF Reserves: ТАСС reports Putin stating that "smarter ones" in the West do not want to seize Russian reserves. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • Putin on SCO: ТАСС reports Putin clarified that SCO is not meant to confront anyone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • Putin on Medinsky's Work: ТАСС reports Putin is satisfied with Medinsky's work on negotiations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Putin Ready to Raise Negotiation Level: РБК-Україна and ТАСС report Putin stated RF is ready to raise the level of negotiations with Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Putin Not Preparing for Moscow Meeting with Trump: ТАСС reports Putin stated preparations for a possible meeting with Trump in Moscow are not underway. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Rosfinmonitoring Adds Dmitry Protopopov to Terrorist/Extremist List: ТАСС reports this designation. ASTRA (RF source with photo) reinforces this, showing a courtroom image. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF General Prosecutor Seizes Ex-KCHRO Official's Assets: ТАСС reports the confiscation of property worth 41.9 billion rubles from ex-KCHRO government head Kaishev. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Blogger Markaryan's Appeal from Pre-Trial Detention: Alex Parker Returns reports blogger Markaryan wrote an appeal from detention. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF-aligned IO)
    • Moscow Court Extends Blogger Markaryan's Arrest: ТАСС reports a Moscow court extended blogger Markaryan's arrest until November 9th. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Colonelcassad (RF source with video) reports "Арсена Маркаряна оставили в СИЗО до 9 ноября. В ближайшее время его проверит психолог. Блогер заявил, что страдал от депрессии, когда записывал свои стримы." (Arsen Markaryan was left in pre-trial detention until November 9. In the near future, a psychologist will check him. The blogger stated that he suffered from depression when recording his streams.) (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Beslan Commemoration (NEW/REINFORCED): ТАСС (RF source with video) captures a solemn ceremony with white balloons being released, red flowers spelling "ПОМНИМ" (We Remember) and the date "09.09.2004". This is an annual commemoration, reinforcing national trauma and unity against terrorism. NEW: WarGonzo (RF source with video) posts "Неоконченный урок Беслана: трагегия, объединившая страну" (Unfinished lesson of Beslan: a tragedy that united the country). This reinforces the IO surrounding the event. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • Rosptrebnadzor Smartphone Assistance (NEW): ТАСС reports Rosptrebnadzor is ready to help with smartphones that cannot install Russian services. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Civilian, but highlights RF focus on domestic tech control)
    • State Duma on Child Bullying (NEW): ТАСС reports State Duma deputies proposed additional mechanisms for protecting children from bullying in social networks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Civilian/Social Policy)
    • RF Lawfare on Cruise Operator (NEW): ТАСС reports tour operator TRVL sued Ponant over cancellation of a tour for Russians on a chartered vessel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - civilian, but shows Russian legal efforts against sanctions)
    • RF IO - One-Polar World (NEW): Colonelcassad (RF source) claims "A unipolar world is unfair." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF Imprisons Melitopol TG Channel Admins (NEW): ASTRA (RF source with photo) reports that administrators of city Telegram channels in occupied Melitopol have been sentenced to 15 and 16 years. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF internal suppression of information)
    • RF IO - Main News Today (NEW): Военкор Котенок (RF source with photo) posts "Главные новости сегодня (03.09.2025)" (Main news today (03.09.2025)). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF "Espanola" Marine Detachment Commander Interview (NEW): Два майора (RF source with video) posts "Интервью командира морского отряда специального назначения "Эспаньола" с позывным "Алтай"" (Interview with the commander of the "Espanola" special purpose marine detachment with call sign "Altai"). The video discusses drone operations, training, and operational effectiveness, mentioning "Crimea," "Black Sea Fleet," and "frontline." NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (RF source with video) reposts the "Espanola" interview. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO, promoting unit capabilities and morale)
    • RF "Evening Bell" (NEW): Kotsnews (RF source with photo) posts "ВЕЧЕРНИЙ ЗВОН:" (Evening Bell:). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF IO - Communistic Housing Proposal (NEW): Alex Parker Returns (RF source with photo) reports "Госдуме предложили подселять к владельцам больших квартир многодетные семьи за отказ купить им жилье." (The State Duma was proposed to resell large families with owners of large apartments if they refuse to buy them housing). This suggests a push for socialistic policies within Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO, internal policy proposal)
    • RF IO - Infrastructure Maintenance (NEW): AV БогомаZ (RF source with photo) posts "Когда мы капитально ремонтируем наши школы, детские сады, поликлиники и больницы, стадионы, хочется, чтобы те, кто руководит этими учреждениями, и те, кто их посещает, бережно относились к тому, что имеют." (When we overhaul our schools, kindergartens, polyclinics and hospitals, stadiums, we want those who manage these institutions, and those who visit them, to take care of what they have). This is a civilian-focused IO message promoting care for public infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF IO - "Chocolate Fuhrer" Poroshenko Telegram Ban (NEW): Colonelcassad (RF source with video) posts "Шоколадный фюрер отлипнув от очередной бутылки призвал запретить Телеграм на Украине. 😀" (The Chocolate Fuhrer, having sobered up from another bottle, called for banning Telegram in Ukraine. 😀). Alex Parker Returns (RF source with video) also posts similar content. This is derogatory RF IO targeting Ukrainian politicians and exploiting internal debates. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF IO - Ukrainian Customs Corruption (NEW): Басурин о главном (RF source with video) posts "Украинская таможня: коррупция в чистом виде." (Ukrainian customs: corruption in its purest form.). The video showcases luxurious houses of a state inspector, implying illicit enrichment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO, highlighting alleged Ukrainian corruption)
    • RF IO - Bransk Region Stadium Modernization (NEW): AV БогомаZ (RF source with photo) posts "Футбольное поле в Добруни было модернизировано шесть лет назад. Что значит ежесуточный контроль — и поле с искусственным покрытием и беговыми дорожками, и трибуны в отличном состоянии." (The football field in Dobrun was modernized six years ago. What daily control means - both the artificial turf field with running tracks and the stands are in excellent condition.). This is a civilian-focused IO message promoting infrastructure development and maintenance in Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF IO - Bransk Region Kindergarten Renovation (NEW): AV БогомаZ (RF source with photo) posts "Детский сад «Колосок» — структурное подразделение лицея № 1 Брянского района. Детсад на 280 воспитанников — самый крупный из двадцати работающих в Брянском районе. Он был построен 45 лет назад и, конечно, давно требовал капитального ремонта." (Kindergarten "Kolosok" - a structural unit of Lyceum No. 1 of Bryansk district. The kindergarten for 280 pupils is the largest of the twenty operating in Bryansk district. It was built 45 years ago and, of course, had long been in need of major repairs.). This is a civilian-focused IO message promoting social infrastructure development. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF IO - Bryansk Region GasEnergyComplex (NEW): AV БогомаZ (RF source with photo) posts "Завод нефтегазового и энергетического оборудования «ГазЭнергоКомплект» — предприятие, которое производит импортозамещающее оборудование для нефтегазового комплекса России." (GazEnergoKomplekt oil and gas and energy equipment plant is an enterprise that produces import-substituting equipment for the Russian oil and gas complex.). This is an IO message promoting Russian import substitution and industrial self-sufficiency. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF IO - Bryansk Region Sports Palace (NEW): AV БогомаZ (RF source with photo) posts "Дворец зимних видов спорта в Глинищеве, наверное, один из лучших, которые построены в Брянской области, — настолько быстро и качественно выполнены все работы." (The Palace of Winter Sports in Glinishchevo is probably one of the best built in the Bryansk region - all work was done so quickly and efficiently.). This is a civilian-focused IO message promoting infrastructure development. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF IO - UAF Female Servicewomen (NEW): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source with photo) posts "Украинские военнослужащие девушки заявили, что дадут решительный отпор оккупантам." (Ukrainian servicewomen stated that they would give a decisive rebuff to the occupiers.). This appears to be RF IO, possibly mocking or underestimating UAF resolve. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF IO - Poddubny's Birthday (NEW): Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source with photo) celebrates "Александру Игоревичу 47 лет" (Alexander Igorevich is 47 years old) and mentions past combat areas like Maaloula, Majmua, Katyuzhanka, and Volchansk. This is a personal post but serves to reinforce a network of war correspondents and their connection to military operations, boosting morale within a specific pro-war segment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO/Community Building)
    • RF IO - Благовещенск Alley of Memory (NEW): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF source quoting RF video) shares a video from "Город Благовещенск, аллея памяти погибших на СВО. Ну, естественно, здесь еще не все фотографии, здесь не все имена, не все фамилии, не все позывные" (City of Blagoveshchensk, alley of memory of those who died in the SMO. Well, naturally, not all photos are here yet, not all names, not all surnames, not all call signs). This is a powerful RF IO piece acknowledging losses but framing them as part of a national sacrifice. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO, acknowledged by UAF source)
    • RF IO - Trump comments on war (NEW): Операция Z (RF source with video) posts Trump saying he thought ending the war in Ukraine would be easier, but "war is a difficult, unpredictable thing. But it will be done." NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source with video) posts "🪂 Я думал, что войну на Украине будет проще закончить, но война — это дело непростое, непредсказуемое. Но это будет сделано, — Трамп." This is RF IO leveraging Trump's statements to portray the war as difficult but inevitable. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF IO - IT Cube in Glinishchevo (NEW): AV БогомаZ (RF source with photos) promotes the "IT-куб" digital education center in Glinishchevo, opened two years ago under a federal project. This is a civilian-focused IO message promoting technological development and education in Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF IO - WarGonzo "Behind the Balaclava" (NEW): WarGonzo (RF source with video) releases a video "«За балаклавой» – WarGonzo снимает маски" (Behind the Balaclava – WarGonzo takes off the masks). The video features Russian military and civilians in a war-affected area, discussing personal reflections on the war and contrasting those who defend with "traitors." It includes a medical vehicle. This is RF IO focused on personalizing the conflict, boosting morale, and shaming perceived internal opposition. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF IO - "With a pig's snout into the kalashny row" (NEW): Kotsnews (RF source with photo) posts a poll result (32%) on the proverb "Со свиным рылом в калашный ряд не лезут," implying Ukraine is not ready for "big politics." This is RF IO using derogatory proverbs to mock Ukraine's geopolitical aspirations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF IO - Alex Parker on "Khokhols" (NEW): Alex Parker Returns (RF source with photo) posts "Не зря про Каца вспомнил. Он не даст хохлам соскочить. За все погромы ответят. От Хмельницкого и Петлюры до Бандеры. Быть добру!" (No wonder I remembered Kats. He won't let the Khokhols get away. They will answer for all the pogroms. From Khmelnytsky and Petliura to Bandera. All will be well!). This is highly inflammatory and derogatory RF IO, invoking historical grievances and promoting retribution against Ukrainians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF IO - FSB Message "Don't fall for enemy deception" (NEW): Два майора (RF source with video) posts a video "Не ведитесь на обман противника." (Don't fall for enemy deception). The video features FSB imagery, cyber threat visuals, surveillance, and enforcement actions, urging citizens to report suspicious activities. This is an RF internal security and counter-intelligence IO campaign. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF IO - "Main Political Victory at SCO" (NEW): Kotsnews (RF source with photo) posts "Главная политическая победа России на ШОС" (Russia's main political victory at SCO). This is RF IO promoting diplomatic success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF IO - Alex Parker "Laughed" (NEW):): Alex Parker Returns (RF source with photo) posts "Смеялся" (Laughed) with a meme. This is RF IO, likely mocking Ukrainian or Western figures/events. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF IO - "Baba Zoya" (NEW): Alex Parker Returns (RF source with photo and text) mentions "Баба Зоя — старая карга с нестабильным чувством юмора" (Baba Zoya - an old hag with an unstable sense of humor), suggesting an internal RF-aligned blogger. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF IO - Poddubny "Tasks will be completed" (NEW): Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (RF source with text) posts "Задачи будут выполнены, а цели СВО достигнуты." (Tasks will be completed, and the goals of the SMO will be achieved), attributing it to "direct participants" and reinforcing confidence in victory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO, morale boosting)
    • RF IO - Suponevo Polyclinic (NEW): AV БогомаZ (RF source with photos) promotes the renovated Suponevo Polyclinic #2, highlighting its modernization and full staffing. This is civilian-focused IO promoting healthcare infrastructure development in Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF IO - Владивосток Corridor of Glory (NEW): Colonelcassad (RF source with video) posts "От ветеранов до волонтёров: живой коридор славы на набережной Владивостока" (From veterans to volunteers: a living corridor of glory on the Vladivostok embankment). This is RF IO promoting national unity and military commemoration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Internal Incident - Krasnodar Military Pilot Murder (NEW): ASTRA (RF source with video) reports on a military pilot allegedly murdered at the Krasnodar flight school, according to his widow. She claims he was stabbed and suspects foul play/cover-up. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF IO - Suponevo School Sports Hall (NEW): AV БогомаZ (RF source with photos) promotes a new, spacious, and bright sports hall in Suponevo School No. 1, named after Hero of the Soviet Union N.I. Chuvin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO, civilian infrastructure development)
    • RF Daily Summary (NEW): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source) posts "🪂 Сводка за день 3 сентября." (Summary for the day September 3). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: MoD Russia (RF source with photo) posts "📆 Top News Today" with a calendar icon. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF IO - WWII Victors Reminder (NEW): WarGonzo (RF source with photo) posts "Берлину, Вене и Парижу напомнили о победителях во Второй Мировой войне" (Berlin, Vienna and Paris were reminded of the victors in World War II). This is RF IO leveraging historical narratives to assert influence over European capitals. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF IO - German Opposition Deaths (NEW): Операция Z (RF source quoting "Военкоры Русской Весны") reports "‼️🇩🇪🏴‍☠️7 кандидатов от «пророссийской» оппозиционной «Альтернативы для Германии» умерли накануне выборов в Северном Рейне — Вестфалии, — Die Welt." (7 candidates from the "pro-Russian" opposition "Alternative for Germany" died on the eve of elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, - Die Welt.). This is RF IO attempting to generate conspiracy theories and discredit opposing political forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF Military Exercises (CSTO) (NEW): MoD Russia (RF source with photo) posts "Russian servicemen share their experience working with UAVs gained during special military operation at CSTO's exercises." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO, promoting drone expertise)
    • RF IO - Zelenskyy Refuses Moscow Visit (NEW): Fighterbomber (RF source) states "Zelenskyy refused to come to Moscow. He used to come all his life, made people laugh, but suddenly he doesn't want to." This is derogatory RF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF IO - Ex-Azerbaijani MiG-29 (NEW): Два майора (RF source with photo) posts "🇺🇦🇦🇿 Бывший азербайджанский истребитель МиГ-29 в составе петушиных сил Украины." (Former Azerbaijani MiG-29 fighter in the ranks of the "rooster" forces of Ukraine). This is derogatory RF IO, and potentially disinformation regarding UAF air assets. NEW: Alex Parker Returns (RF source with photo) posts "Ничего необычного, просто МИГ-29 Азербайджана, который Алиев передал хохлам. Уверен, что рукопожатие сраму не имущего Пыпы для многих в очередной раз заиграет новыми красками. Живите теперь с этим." (Nothing unusual, just an Azerbaijani MiG-29, which Aliyev handed over to the Khokhols. I am sure that the handshake of the shameless Pypa will once again shine with new colors for many. Live with this now.) (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF IO - Nagorno-Karabakh Situation (NEW): Военкор Котенок (RF source) provides an analysis of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, framing it as a betrayal of Russia by Aliyev and Pashinyan with US influence. This is RF IO attempting to project its regional influence and criticize US actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF IO - Belgorod Information Control (NEW): ASTRA (RF source with video) reports that Belgorod residents will be punished for disseminating "unofficial" information about UAV attack consequences. This signifies an escalation of internal information control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO, internal control)
    • RF IO - Duma on Max Messenger (NEW): Alex Parker Returns (RF source) reports "В Госдуме заверили, что мессенджер Max не будет автоматически составлять доносы. Охотно верю." (The State Duma assured that the Max messenger will not automatically compile denunciations. I willingly believe it.). This is RF IO attempting to reassure the public about a domestic messenger, while the sarcastic tone implies the opposite. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF IO - UK Sanctions on "Victory Volunteers" (NEW): ТАСС (RF source) reports the Russian Embassy in London called the UK's decision to sanction "Victory Volunteers" on the anniversary of WWII's end "cynical." This is RF IO pushing anti-Western narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF IO - UK Accusations on Child Abduction (NEW): ТАСС (RF source) reports the Russian Embassy in London urged Britain to refrain from baseless accusations of child abduction from Ukraine. This is RF IO deflecting accusations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF IO - Slovak PM Fico on EU Isolation (NEW): Colonelcassad (RF source) reports "Премьер-министр Словакии Роберт Фицо о политической изоляции ЕС." (Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico on the political isolation of the EU). This is RF IO leveraging anti-EU sentiment from a European leader. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF IO - Epstein Conspiracy Theory (NEW): Alex Parker Returns (RF source with video) posts a video about a "missing minute" from Jeffrey Epstein's jail footage, implying a conspiracy theory. While not directly military, this is indicative of RF IO's willingness to promote conspiracy theories to undermine Western institutions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF IO - Medical Evacuation from China (NEW): ТАСС (RF source) reports "Больной раком ребенок вместе с усиленной бригадой российских медиков вылетел из Пекина в Россию. Его состояние на момент вылета оценивалось как стабильное." (A child with cancer, along with an enhanced team of Russian doctors, flew from Beijing to Russia. His condition at the time of departure was assessed as stable.) This is civilian-focused IO promoting humanitarian efforts and Russian medical capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF IO - Moscow News "Secret Place" Mockery (NEW): Новости Москвы (RF source with video) posts a video with caption "😂 Типичное лучшее СЕКРЕТНОЕ место в городе" (😂 Typical best SECRET place in the city). This is light-hearted IO, possibly mocking something or just engaging with public. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Government Subsidizes Moscow-Pyongyang Flights (NEW): ТАСС (RF source) reports the Russian government will allocate up to 124.4 million rubles from the reserve fund to subsidize Moscow-Pyongyang-Moscow air travel. This indicates a deepening of strategic ties, likely military/logistical. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Convicts Bryansk Infiltrators (NEW): Colonelcassad (RF source with photo) reports four saboteurs who infiltrated Bryansk Oblast in 2023 have been sentenced to 26-28 years. This is RF internal security IO, demonstrating enforcement against perceived threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF IO - Kupyansk "Subsidized" and "Totalitarian Regime" (NEW): НгП раZVедка (RF source) claims "Купянск вообще всегда был дотационным, и напоминал Украине о мрачных годах тоталитарного режима." (Kupyansk has always been subsidized, and reminded Ukraine of the gloomy years of the totalitarian regime). This is RF IO attempting to de-legitimize Ukrainian control over Kupyansk and frame RF actions as a "liberation." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF IO - Zelenskyy Sanctions Shufutinsky (NEW): Alex Parker Returns (RF source with photo and text) posts a sarcastic message about Zelenskyy sanctioning Russian singer Shufutinsky. This is RF IO mocking Ukrainian leadership and actions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF IO - Rybar Summary (NEW): Рыбарь (RF source with photo) posts "📝О чём говорит Рыбарь📝" (What Rybar says), indicating a new summary from this prominent milblogger. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF "Far Eastern Surcharge" Extension (NEW): ТАСС reports the "Far Eastern surcharge," aimed at lowering retail electricity prices for consumers in the Far East, is planned to be extended until 2035. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Internal Economy)
    • RF "T Plus" Investment Plans (NEW): ТАСС reports "T Plus" plans to return to 50 billion rubles in investments within three years, with current year investments at 40.5 billion rubles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Internal Economy)
    • RF "ERA-GLONASS" Connected Cars (NEW): ТАСС reports over 12.9 million cars are connected to the "ERA-GLONASS" system. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF Internal Technology/Infrastructure)
    • RF IO - Xi Jinping & Putin Challenge West (NEW): Операция Z (RF source, quoting "Военкоры Русской Весны") posts a video with the caption: "🇨🇳🇷🇺🇪🇺 Си Цзиньпин открыто вместе с Путиным бросает вызов Западу, - глава евродипломатии Кая Каллас". This highlights RF IO leveraging statements from Western leaders to portray a united anti-Western front with China. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • RF IO - "Hint" with Apple Logo (NEW): Alex Parker Returns (RF source with photo) posts an image with "09 09 25" and a red Apple logo, with the caption "Даю подсказку." This is highly suggestive of a targeted, upcoming IO campaign or event, possibly related to a cyber attack or a significant release, intended to mislead or confuse regarding the source or nature of the "hint." The Grok watermark is also notable. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO, Misinformation/Disinformation Potential)
  • UAF External/Diplomatic:
    • Zelenskyy Secures Additional Air Defense Systems: РБК-Україна (UAF source with photo) and Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) report President Zelenskyy reached an agreement for additional air defense systems from Nordic and Baltic countries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Denmark "Further Development" of "Danish Model": Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) reports Danish PM Frederiksen states there is "certain capacity for further development and expansion of the 'Danish model'." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • New Missile Fuel Production in Denmark: Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report Fire Point will begin production of solid rocket fuel in Denmark. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Zelenskyy Rejects "Territory Exchange": РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF sources) report Zelenskyy stating Ukraine will not "gift anything to Putin." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Sybiha Responds to Putin on Zelenskyy Meeting: РБК-Україна (UAF source with photo) reports Sybiha "harshly responded to Putin's 'proposal' for a meeting with Zelenskyy in Moscow." TASS (RF source) confirms this, reporting "Ukraine refused a meeting between Putin and Zelensky in Moscow." NEW: ASTRA (RF source) confirms "Глава МИД Украины ответил на предложение Путина о встрече с Зеленским в Москве" (Ukrainian Foreign Minister responded to Putin's proposal to meet Zelensky in Moscow). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • European Leaders to Call Trump with Zelenskyy (NEW): Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF sources) report "Zelenskyy, Macron and other European leaders will hold a conversation with Trump tomorrow – Elysée Palace stated." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Trump on US Troops in Poland (NEW): РБК-Україна (UAF source with video) reports "🇺🇸🇵🇱 Probably American troops will remain in Poland, - Trump." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Trump on Putin/Xi/Kim Relations and "Next Phase" (NEW): ТАСС reports Trump noted his "very good" relations with Putin, Xi, and Kim Jong Un, but stated "it will be clear in a couple of weeks how good they are." Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source with video) also reports Trump stating "I have not yet moved to the second or third stage" regarding pressure on Russia, and that he has no message for Putin beyond "he knows where I stand." TASS (RF source) reports Trump "categorically rejected claims" he isn't taking measures against RF on Ukraine. РБК-Україна (UAF source with video) also reports Trump stating he hasn't finished "phase two or three" with sanctions against Russia. ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, and STERNENKO (multiple sources) report Trump stating he expects to speak with Putin in the coming days to "determine what will happen" with Russia and Ukraine. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source, AFP) reports "Трамп мав на увазі дзвінок Зеленському, а не путіну. Він оговорився — AFP" (Trump meant a call to Zelenskyy, not Putin. He misspoke — AFP). NEW: РБК-Україна (UAF source, AFP) confirms "Трамп обмовився, анонсуючи швидку розмову з Путіним, - AFP" (Trump misspoke, announcing a quick conversation with Putin, - AFP). NEW: STERNENKO (UAF source, AFP) confirms "Трамп у четвер зателефонує Зеленському, а не путіну, — AFP." (Trump will call Zelenskyy on Thursday, not Putin, — AFP). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - with correction/clarification) NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UAF source) posts Trump making a new statement, seemingly a meme about the "50 days" he gave Russia expiring, implying he will simply 'reset the calendar'. This indicates UAF IO using humor related to Trump's statements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF IO)
    • UK Defense Minister on Troop Plans (NEW): РБК-Україна (UAF source with video) quotes Gili (UK Defense Minister) stating "all plans for sending troops to Ukraine are significant and real." NEW: РБК-Україна (UAF source with video) reports UK Defense Minister John Healey stated at the 30th Ramstein meeting, partners will focus on fulfilling promises to Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Macron on Security Guarantees for Ukraine (NEW): РБК-Україна (UAF source with photo) reports "🇫🇷🇺🇦 Макрон: європейці готові надати гарантії безпеки Україні в той день, коли буде підписано мир." (Macron: Europeans are ready to provide security guarantees to Ukraine on the day peace is signed). Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) also reports this. NEW: Операция Z (RF source, quoting "Военкоры Русской Весны") states Macron: «Коалиция желающих готова предоставить Украине гарантии безопасности, как только будет достигнуто прекращение огня» (Coalition of the willing is ready to provide Ukraine security guarantees as soon as a ceasefire is reached). This is RF IO leveraging Macron's statement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Zelenskyy and Macron Media Statements (NEW): Zelenskiy / Official (UAF source) and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (UAF source) report "НАЖИВО. Заяви для медіа спільно з Емманюелем Макроном." (LIVE. Statements for media jointly with Emmanuel Macron.) NEW: Операция Z (RF source, quoting "Военкоры Русской Весны") posts a video of Zelenskyy and Macron press conference in Paris. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Trump's Special Envoy Witkoff to Paris (NEW): РБК-Україна (UAF source, Reuters) reports "Віткофф теж прибув до Парижа напередодні "коаліції рішучих"" (Witkoff also arrived in Paris on the eve of the "coalition of the resolute"). NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source, Reuters) confirms "До Франції напередодні зустрічі «Коаліції охочих» прибув спецпосланець Трампа Віткофф" (Trump's special envoy Witkoff arrived in France on the eve of the "Coalition of the Willing" meeting). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RBC-Ukraine collecting for UAF Batteries (NEW):: РБК-Україна (UAF source with photo) announces it is joining an urgent fundraising drive for batteries for UAF soldiers. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Zelenskyy on "Korean Scenario" (NEW): РБК-Україна (UAF source with photo) reports "🤔 Зеленський допускає "корейський сценарій" для України, але з нюансами" (Zelenskyy allows for a "Korean scenario" for Ukraine, but with nuances). NEW: Операция Z (RF source) posts photo message "‼️🇺🇦🇰🇷На Украине может реализоваться сценарий Южной Кореи, - Зеленский", confirming RF IO is leveraging this statement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF source) reinforces "‼️В Україні може відбутися сценарій Південної та Північної Кореї — вважає Зеленський". (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Johnston on War Ending by Christmas (NEW): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF source with photo) reports "🔴 Війна в Україні може закінчитися до Різдва, для цього треба, щоб Трамп зайняв більш жорстку позицію щодо путіна, — експрем’єр Великобританії Джонсон" (The war in Ukraine could end by Christmas, for this Trump needs to take a tougher stance towards Putin, - former UK Prime Minister Johnson). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Rubio on Trump Administration and Israel/West Bank (NEW): РБК-Україна (UAF source with photo) reports "🇺🇸🇮🇱 Рубіо на приватних зустрічах дав зрозуміти, що адміністрація Трампа не заважатиме Ізраїлю з анексією Західного берега, - Axios" (Rubio at private meetings made it clear that the Trump administration will not interfere with Israel's annexation of the West Bank, - Axios). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Zelenskyy on "Coalition of Willing" (NEW): ТАСС (RF source quoting Zelenskyy) reports "Коалиции желающих" по оказанию военной поддержки Киеву выглядит на сегодняшний день "теоретической", признал Владимир Зеленский. (Zelenskyy admitted that the "Coalition of the Willing" to provide military support to Kyiv looks "theoretical" today.) This is an RF IO attempt to spin Zelenskyy's statements negatively. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - RF IO)
    • Ukraine Launches Largest Port Investment Project (NEW): РБК-Україна (UAF source with photo) reports "🚢 Україна запустила найбільший портовий інвестпроєкт: що відомо" (Ukraine launched the largest port investment project: what is known). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • New Missile/Drone Plant in Denmark (Reinforced) (NEW): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF source with photo) reinforces the report "В Данії розгортається будівництво нового заводу з виробництва ракет і дронів для України, - Зеленський під час брифінгу у Копенгагені." (In Denmark, the construction of a new plant for the production of missiles and drones for Ukraine is underway, - Zelenskyy during a briefing in Copenhagen.) (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Ukraine Parliament on Temporary Booking for Defense Industry (NEW): РБК-Україна (UAF source with photo) reports "🤔 У Раді спрогнозували терміни появи закону про тимчасове бронювання на ОПК" (The Verkhovna Rada predicted the terms for the appearance of a law on temporary booking for the defense industry). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Zelenskyy on Europe's Insufficient Guarantees (NEW): РБК-Україна (UAF source) reports "🤔 Гарантій Європи буде недостатньо: Зеленський пояснив, чому потрібна участь США". (Zelenskyy explained why US participation is needed, as Europe's guarantees would not be enough). This highlights Ukraine's continued reliance on US security commitments. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Zelenskyy on Winter Threat from Putin (NEW): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF source with video) reports "❗️путін сподівається, що зима вбиватиме наших людей там, куди не дотягуються його війська, – Зеленський під час зустрічі з прем’єркою Данії." (Putin hopes that winter will kill our people where his troops cannot reach, - Zelenskyy during a meeting with the Prime Minister of Denmark). This emphasizes the ongoing threat of RF deep strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF Discussions on Exit for Men (NEW): РБК-Україна (UAF source with video) reports "🤔 Коли всім чоловікам дозволять виїзд з України: що кажуть в ОП". (When all men will be allowed to leave Ukraine: what they say in the OP). This is a discussion about potential future policy changes regarding male citizens' exit from Ukraine, likely after the war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: ТАСС (RF source) reports "Украинские власти не намерены открывать границы для мужчин сразу после отмены военного положения. Запрет на выезд сохранится на время "переходного периода". Об этом заявил советник главы офиса Зеленского Михаил Подоляк." (Ukrainian authorities do not intend to open borders for men immediately after the lifting of martial law. The ban on departure will remain for the "transition period." This was stated by Advisor to the Head of Zelenskyy's Office Mykhailo Podolyak.) (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF IO on "Frozen Conflict" Scenario (NEW): Операция Z (RF source with video, quoting "Военкоры Русской Весны") posts "‼️🇺🇦🏴‍☠️Заморозка по линии фронта рассматривается как один из сценариев завершения войны, — представитель главы Офиса Зеленского" (A frozen conflict along the front line is being considered as one of the scenarios for ending the war, — representative of the head of Zelenskyy's Office). This indicates RF IO is actively leveraging discussions of a frozen conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Burning Man Death (NEW): ТАСС reports the death of Russian citizen Vadim Kruglov at the Burning Man festival in the USA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Civilian, not directly military, but has IO potential.)
  • UAF Internal:
    • UAF Self-Propelled & Towed Artillery Production: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Ukraine has produced 345 Bohdana self-propelled artillery units and 100 towed guns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF "Vampire" Heavy Bomber Drone: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 (UAF source with photos) highlights the "Vampire" heavy bomber hexacopter. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Meeting with Families of Missing/POWs in Kirovohrad: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (UAF source with photo) reports a meeting in Kirovohrad Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Zaporizhzhia Air Raid Alert: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (UAF source) reports "УВАГА🚨" (ATTENTION🚨). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Kyiv Housing/Infrastructure Restoration (NEW): КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (UAF source with photos) reports "We are focusing resources on quickly restoring housing and infrastructure and providing support to every affected family." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Civilian Infrastructure Restoration) NEW: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts "Масштаб терору, який росіяни влаштували в Києві – одному з найбільших та найкрасивіших міст Європи – нечуваний." (The scale of terror that Russians have unleashed in Kyiv - one of the largest and most beautiful cities in Europe - is unprecedented.) NEW: КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) posts "До уваги мешканців пошкоджених будинків!" (Attention to residents of damaged buildings!). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • DeepState TAF Bonus System (NEW): ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (UAF source with video) showcases the launch of a new 'TAF Bonus' system by TAF Industries, offering rewards for neutralizing targets and exchangeable for equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF Innovation/Incentive System)
    • Fire in Kalush Extinguished (NEW): РБК-Україна (UAF source with photo) reports a fire in Kalush after a night attack was only just extinguished. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - BDA from previous strikes)
    • UAF 58th Motorized Brigade Tanker (NEW): ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 (UAF source with video) highlights "Bars," a tanker from the 58th Motorized Brigade, recounting combat experience and counter-drone tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • NAZK Anti-Corruption Guide (NEW): Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (UAF source with photo) highlights NAZK's guide against corruption, focusing on bribes, "dead souls," and fictitious procurement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF internal governance)
    • UAF Air Situation Map (NEW): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source with photo) posts "Крайнє бомбардування України, обстановка" (Last bombing of Ukraine, situation). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Zaporizhzhia Housing Restoration (NEW): 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (UAF source with video) shows Ivan Fedorov, Head of Zaporizhzhia Regional State Administration, interacting with residents of a restored building on Stalivariv St., 16, highlighting reconstruction efforts after shelling. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Coordination Headquarters Meeting with Families of 78th Air Assault Regiment (NEW):: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (UAF source with photos) reports a meeting with families of soldiers from the 78th Separate Air Assault Regiment. This indicates ongoing support for military families. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF Mobilization Regulations (NEW): РБК-Україна (UAF source with photo) reports "‼️ Бронь українців із розшуком ТЦК буде доступна не для всіх критичних підприємств" (Reservation for Ukrainians with TCC search will not be available for all critical enterprises). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Captured RF Soldier Interview (NEW): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF source with video) features an interview with a captured Russian soldier discussing poor equipment/training, living conditions, high casualties, and being told by Putin to "detonate with a grenade." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF Drone Request (NEW): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (RF source with video) shows a Ukrainian paratrooper requesting a DJI Mavic 3 drone for reconnaissance and artillery control. This is a UAF internal plea for resources, highlighted by RF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF Internal Affairs / Russian Restrictions (NEW): Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (UAF source with video) posts a sarcastic video about new Russian restrictions (SIM cards, messaging apps, alcohol import, English language reduction), contrasting with Ukrainian efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - UAF IO, internal affairs)
    • STERNENKO (UAF source) posts "Важливе нічне нагадування про участь у священному русорізі!" (Important night reminder about participating in the sacred "rusorez"!). This is a morale-boosting message, reinforcing the narrative of active and aggressive defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• 1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

  • Black Sea Oil Spill: Remains valid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Formaldehyde Levels (Kalush): Remains valid. Fire in Kalush from night attack now extinguished, suggests environmental hazard mitigated for now, but underlying risk remains. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

• 1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

  • RF:
    • Air/Missile Assets: Actively employing long-range precision air-launched weapons (КАБ on Donetsk and Sumy), attack UAVs (Lancet on UAF radar, FPV drones on checkpoint), tactical aviation (southeast and northeast directions), and conducting drone strikes (Kharkiv direction, Nikopol region, Kharkiv city). Reports strikes on UAF UAV/artillery electronics in Khmelnytskyi. New deployment of UAV group from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv Oblast (Obukhiv district) and a specific reconnaissance drone detected over Brovary district. Confirmed strikes on railway infrastructure in Kirovohrad with Shahed drones. New claims of strikes on "Motor" aircraft repair plant in Lutsk and "Donmashstroy" in Kramatorsk. Artillery (Msta-S, BM-21 Grad MLRS) actively employed in Kharkiv direction. New claim of strike on UAF UAV operator location in Kupyansk-Uzlovoy. RF animated strike scheme details alleged widespread drone strikes across multiple regions. New claims of Kalibr/Geran strikes on "Spetsoboronmash" plant near Kyiv Oblast border. New UAV group in Chernihiv region moving southwest. New Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast (including Pokrovsky district, Belozerske/Dobropillya) with 5 remaining active. New UAV group from Kharkiv to Donetsk Oblast. New UAV group from Donetsk to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New UAV group detected in Southern Sumy Oblast, moving west. Reports a power outage in Krasnodar Krai due to a UAV strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Ground Forces: Strong offensive focus on Sieversk (maps indicate ongoing movements, new photo message reinforces this). Asserting control of "about half" of Kupyansk, directly contradicting UAF but also met with UAF counter-action against flag-planting assault groups. DeepState is now confirming RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk, though UAF still denies firm control of the city center, only small group infiltration. Reports of RF successfully destroying UAF motorized units near Pokrovsk with casualties. Claims liberation of Kamyshevakha. RF claims of assault on Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) and full control of Yanvarske, indicating a westward push. Persistent attempts at infiltration (Pokrovsk axis). Engages fortified positions. Putin claims all RF groupings are successfully advancing. Conducted deadly artillery/FPV drone strikes on Kostiantynivka. Claims a UAF unit surrendered in Kupyansk, but this is visually unconfirmed and contradicted by UAF. RF FPV drone strike on a checkpoint claimed, indicating continued tactical drone use. RF forces are employing anti-thermal imaging cloaks for infiltration tactics, particularly targeting UAF drone operators and mortar teams. RF utilizes drones for surveillance and targeting, with one video showing a 2S22 "Bogdana" self-propelled howitzer firing, despite a likely miscaptioned audio track. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • C2/Intelligence: Coordinated deep strike and ground operations continue. RF IO is highly active, consolidating anti-Western narratives, promoting RF resilience and diplomatic influence (Congo, China, DPRK (new confirmed invitation), Vietnam, SCO, Aliyev, Trump, new invitation for Kim Jong Un to visit Russia, leveraging Trump's comments on the war's difficulty, CSTO exercises, Slovak PM Fico's statements on EU isolation, subsidized Moscow-Pyongyang flights, convicts Bryansk infiltrators, Rybar summary, Xi Jinping & Putin challenge West IO), while also addressing internal security issues (Rosfinmonitoring designations, Kursk official release, asset seizures, blogger arrests, Melitopol TG admins imprisoned, promoting internal infrastructure projects (IT Cube in Glinishchevo, Suponevo Polyclinic, Suponevo School Sports Hall), import substitution, celebrating a war correspondent's birthday, FSB counter-deception campaign, Belgorod information control, Duma on Max Messenger, promoting humanitarian medical evacuation from China, Far Eastern surcharge extension, "T Plus" investment plans, ERA-GLONASS connected cars), promoting technological advancements (unmanned trams, increased wages), and exploiting Ukrainian internal debates (Telegram, mobilization, border evasion, alleged UAF drone operator desertions, Kupyansk claims (now bolstered by UAF source acknowledgement of infiltration), Gorlovka mayor issues, Polish deportations, Ukrainian customs corruption, Poroshenko's Telegram ban stance, Alex Parker Returns inflammatory rhetoric against "Khokhols", derogatory content on UAF female servicewomen, UAF drone request as a sign of weakness, ex-Azerbaijani MiG-29 as disinformation, UAF discussions on exit for men, Zelenskyy sanctions Shufutinsky, Kupyansk "subsidized" narrative). Actively training personnel with FPV drones (as discussed in "Espanola" commander interview). Actively using legal services to assist military personnel seeking to leave service. Publicly crowdfunding for drones. Putin's press conference was a major IO event, making several statements on Ukraine's sovereignty, NATO, peace talks, and UAF manning levels. New messaging from Putin about "light in the tunnel" for settlement while being ready for military solution, blaming the West for failed peace, claiming all RF advances are successful, and questioning UAF manning. New reports of moldy rations suggest potential internal logistics and morale issues. RF military culture shows dehumanizing elements. RF IO is now leveraging former Polish President Duda's statements to claim Ukraine sought to drag NATO into the war. RF is also framing NATO ISR activity near its borders as provocative. Rosptrebnadzor's offer of smartphone assistance and State Duma's focus on child bullying indicate RF efforts to control the domestic tech environment and address social issues, while Senator Pushkov's comments on Trump and conspiracies demonstrate continued efforts to deflect criticism and sow discord. The Beslan commemoration reinforces national trauma and unity against terrorism. RF is also using highly derogatory language against Zelenskyy. RF IO on "unipolar world" being unfair attempts to project RF as a defender of multipolarity. Trump's planned call with Putin is being amplified, though later clarified by UAF sources as a call with Zelenskyy. RF IO is promoting communistic social policies, celebrating infrastructure in Bryansk region, and promoting industrial self-sufficiency. RF is utilizing nationalistic cultural events (Vladivostok Corridor of Glory) for morale. RF IO is propagating conspiracy theories about opposition deaths in Germany. RF is also leveraging historical narratives (WWII victors) to assert influence over European capitals. RF IO continues to push narratives about UK sanctions being cynical and deflect accusations of child abduction. RF IO is also using conspiracy theories (Epstein) to undermine Western narratives. RF IO is leveraging UAF statements on "frozen conflict" for Ukraine. RF IO is pushing a narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. RF IO is using light-hearted content, and providing daily news summaries. RF IO using a photo of Putin at a podium in a Chinese-style building to project diplomatic success. RF IO claims Kupyansk was "subsidized" and a reminder of a "totalitarian regime" to de-legitimize Ukrainian control. RF IO also mocks Zelenskyy's actions. RF actor-volunteer interview reinforces morale. RF IO also uses an ambiguous graphic with Apple logo and date "09 09 25", potentially hinting at future IO or cyber activity aimed at the West. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF:
    • Air Defense: Operating under intense pressure, successfully intercepting a high volume of drones and missiles, but with confirmed fatalities and infrastructure damage (Kostiantynivka, Nikopol region, Kirovohrad). Has secured additional air defense systems from Nordic/Baltic countries, indicating continued efforts to bolster capabilities. Currently responding to a new UAV threat towards Kyiv and Kharkiv. Confirmed a Molniya UAV hit a university in Kharkiv. A new RF UAV group is active in Chernihiv region moving southwest. UAF successfully downed a "Gerbera" reconnaissance drone. New Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast (including Pokrovsky district, Belozerske/Dobropillya) with 9 of 14 drones reportedly intercepted or diverted. New UAV group from Kharkiv to Donetsk Oblast. New UAV group from Donetsk to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New UAV group in Southern Sumy Oblast moving west, requiring UAF response. Reports a power outage in Krasnodar Krai due to a UAV strike. UAF claims significant destruction of RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Ground Forces: Maintaining defensive posture under intense pressure in Sieversk and Kupyansk. Denying RF claims of control in Kupyansk, with new video showing successful UAF counter-action against flag-planting RF assault group. DeepState is now confirming RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk, though UAF still denies firm control of the city center, only small group infiltration. Reports of RF successfully destroying UAF motorized units near Pokrovsk with casualties. Repelling RF forces near Tovste. Employing tactical deception and actively countering enemy infiltration attempts (Pokrovsk axis). Demonstrated effectiveness with FPV drones against personnel and UAVs. Pioneering ground robotics for combat, evacuation, and logistics (3rd Assault Brigade "NC13"). Actively conducting medical evacuations and saving wounded. Destroying RF artillery, vehicles, antennas, and infantry with drone and artillery strikes. Successful strike on RF UAV warehouse. Successfully engaging RF armored vehicles in Zaporizhzhia direction with drone and artillery fire. UAF highlights the dedication of volunteer tankers. UAF Presidential Brigade drone footage shows successful targeting and destruction of RF defensive positions/fortifications. UAF drone destroys RF vehicle. UAF continues to engage and destroy RF assets near Pokrovsk. UAF drone strikes have successfully destroyed a D-20 artillery gun and a 2S3 Akatsiya self-propelled howitzer, and struck fortified positions. UAF special forces (Shybenyk Squad, 2nd Assault Company, Kraken) are conducting "rusorez" operations in Sumy Oblast, indicating active ground defense and potential offensive actions. UAF forces are actively engaging RF positions with artillery and drone strikes, as evidenced by thermal imaging footage. UAF forces are observing and adapting to RF use of anti-thermal imaging cloaks for infiltration tactics, particularly aimed at hunting drone operators and mortar teams. UAF drone footage shows significant damage to civilian infrastructure in Pokrovsk, as well as documentation of damaged military vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Naval Forces: Demonstrated capability to conduct successful strikes against RF Black Sea Fleet assets. Ukraine has launched its largest port investment project, indicating a focus on economic resilience and maritime infrastructure development. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Information Environment: Actively engaging in diplomatic efforts for support (Zelenskyy in Denmark, joint drone/missile plant, new missile fuel production, securing additional air defense, engagement with Trump, Nordic-Baltic Eight meeting, US agreement on subsoil projects, Sybiha's response to Putin, scheduled call with Trump for European leaders including Zelenskyy and Macron, UK Defense Minister's statements on troop plans, Trump's planned call with Putin - clarified as a call with Zelenskyy, not Putin, Macron's statements on security guarantees, Zelenskyy/Macron joint media statements, Trump's special envoy Witkoff in Paris for "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting, Zelenskyy on "Korean scenario", Johnston on war ending by Christmas, Rubio on Trump/Israel, Ukraine's largest port investment project, Ukraine parliament on temporary booking for defense industry, Zelenskyy on Europe's insufficient guarantees, Zelenskyy on winter threat from Putin), implementing internal reforms (Defence City, mobilization, returning state land, prosecuting evasion schemes, SBU detaining agitators, NAZK anti-corruption guide, mobilization regulations for critical enterprises), recruiting drone operators, bolstering morale (torchlight ceremony, supporting military families, meetings with POW/missing families in Kirovohrad, highlighting combat medics, interviewing commanders, new TAF Bonus system for incentivizing drone operators, highlighting volunteer tankers, highlighting 58th Motorized Brigade tanker, RBC-Ukraine fundraising for UAF batteries, Zaporizhzhia housing restoration, Coordination Headquarters meeting with 78th Air Assault Regiment families, captured RF soldier interview, UAF IO on Russian restrictions, UAF IO using Trump meme, morale-boosting messages for "rusorez"), and countering RF narratives (Kupyansk denial (now refined to acknowledge infiltration attempts), documenting war crimes, rejecting territory exchange, GUR warning of RF IPSO army, countering RF spin on Zelenskyy's "Coalition of Willing" statement). Providing humanitarian aid (Berdyansk). Promoting domestic defense production (Bohdana, Vampire drones). New statement of resolve to "achieve all goals with weapons" if peace terms are not met. Responding to air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia. Focusing on Kyiv housing/infrastructure restoration. Reporting fire extinguished in Kalush after night attack. UAF is using air situation maps to inform the public. UAF is also engaging in discussions about future regulations for men exiting Ukraine, with a confirmed statement from Podolyak. UAF is using the destroyed S-300 and radar for IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Counter-Intelligence/Anti-Corruption: SBU actively detaining agent groups (new report of "agitators"). General Prosecutor preventing illegal property transfers for educational institutions, demonstrating effective domestic governance and security efforts, and exposing mobilization evasion schemes. NAZK's guide against corruption indicates continued focus on internal governance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• 1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

  • Black Sea Oil Spill: Remains valid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Formaldehyde Levels (Kalush): Remains valid. Fire in Kalush from night attack now extinguished, suggests environmental hazard mitigated for now, but underlying risk remains. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

• 1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

  • RF:
    • Air/Missile Assets: Actively employing long-range precision air-launched weapons (КАБ on Donetsk and Sumy), attack UAVs (Lancet on UAF radar, FPV drones on checkpoint), tactical aviation (southeast and northeast directions), and conducting drone strikes (Kharkiv direction, Nikopol region, Kharkiv city). Reports strikes on UAF UAV/artillery electronics in Khmelnytskyi. New deployment of UAV group from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv Oblast (Obukhiv district) and a specific reconnaissance drone detected over Brovary district. Confirmed strikes on railway infrastructure in Kirovohrad with Shahed drones. New claims of strikes on "Motor" aircraft repair plant in Lutsk and "Donmashstroy" in Kramatorsk. Artillery (Msta-S, BM-21 Grad MLRS) actively employed in Kharkiv direction. New claim of strike on UAF UAV operator location in Kupyansk-Uzlovoy. RF animated strike scheme details alleged widespread drone strikes across multiple regions. New claims of Kalibr/Geran strikes on "Spetsoboronmash" plant near Kyiv Oblast border. New UAV group in Chernihiv region moving southwest. New Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast (including Pokrovsky district, Belozerske/Dobropillya) with 5 remaining active. New UAV group from Kharkiv to Donetsk Oblast. New UAV group from Donetsk to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New UAV group detected in Southern Sumy Oblast, moving west. Reports a power outage in Krasnodar Krai due to a UAV strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Ground Forces: Strong offensive focus on Sieversk (maps indicate ongoing movements, new photo message reinforces this). Asserting control of "about half" of Kupyansk, directly contradicting UAF but also met with UAF counter-action against flag-planting assault groups. DeepState is now confirming RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk, though UAF still denies firm control of the city center, only small group infiltration. Reports of RF successfully destroying UAF motorized units near Pokrovsk with casualties. Claims liberation of Kamyshevakha. RF claims of assault on Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) and full control of Yanvarske, indicating a westward push. Persistent attempts at infiltration (Pokrovsk axis). Engages fortified positions. Putin claims all RF groupings are successfully advancing. Conducted deadly artillery/FPV drone strikes on Kostiantynivka. Claims a UAF unit surrendered in Kupyansk, but this is visually unconfirmed and contradicted by UAF. RF FPV drone strike on a checkpoint claimed, indicating continued tactical drone use. RF forces are employing anti-thermal imaging cloaks for infiltration tactics, particularly targeting UAF drone operators and mortar teams. RF utilizes drones for surveillance and targeting, with one video showing a 2S22 "Bogdana" self-propelled howitzer firing, despite a likely miscaptioned audio track. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • C2/Intelligence: Coordinated deep strike and ground operations continue. RF IO is highly active, consolidating anti-Western narratives, promoting RF resilience and diplomatic influence (Congo, China, DPRK (new confirmed invitation), Vietnam, SCO, Aliyev, Trump, new invitation for Kim Jong Un to visit Russia, leveraging Trump's comments on the war's difficulty, CSTO exercises, Slovak PM Fico's statements on EU isolation, subsidized Moscow-Pyongyang flights, convicts Bryansk infiltrators, Rybar summary, Xi Jinping & Putin challenge West IO), while also addressing internal security issues (Rosfinmonitoring designations, Kursk official release, asset seizures, blogger arrests, Melitopol TG admins imprisoned, promoting internal infrastructure projects (IT Cube in Glinishchevo, Suponevo Polyclinic, Suponevo School Sports Hall), import substitution, celebrating a war correspondent's birthday, FSB counter-deception campaign, Belgorod information control, Duma on Max Messenger, promoting humanitarian medical evacuation from China, Far Eastern surcharge extension, "T Plus" investment plans, ERA-GLONASS connected cars), promoting technological advancements (unmanned trams, increased wages), and exploiting Ukrainian internal debates (Telegram, mobilization, border evasion, alleged UAF drone operator desertions, Kupyansk claims (now bolstered by UAF source acknowledgement of infiltration), Gorlovka mayor issues, Polish deportations, Ukrainian customs corruption, Poroshenko's Telegram ban stance, Alex Parker Returns inflammatory rhetoric against "Khokhols", derogatory content on UAF female servicewomen, UAF drone request as a sign of weakness, ex-Azerbaijani MiG-29 as disinformation, UAF discussions on exit for men, Zelenskyy sanctions Shufutinsky, Kupyansk "subsidized" narrative). Actively training personnel with FPV drones (as discussed in "Espanola" commander interview). Actively using legal services to assist military personnel seeking to leave service. Publicly crowdfunding for drones. Putin's press conference was a major IO event, making several statements on Ukraine's sovereignty, NATO, peace talks, and UAF manning levels. New messaging from Putin about "light in the tunnel" for settlement while being ready for military solution, blaming the West for failed peace, claiming all RF advances are successful, and questioning UAF manning. New reports of moldy rations suggest potential internal logistics and morale issues. RF military culture shows dehumanizing elements. RF IO is now leveraging former Polish President Duda's statements to claim Ukraine sought to drag NATO into the war. RF is also framing NATO ISR activity near its borders as provocative. Rosptrebnadzor's offer of smartphone assistance and State Duma's focus on child bullying indicate RF efforts to control the domestic tech environment and address social issues, while Senator Pushkov's comments on Trump and conspiracies demonstrate continued efforts to deflect criticism and sow discord. The Beslan commemoration reinforces national trauma and unity against terrorism. RF is also using highly derogatory language against Zelenskyy. RF IO on "unipolar world" being unfair attempts to project RF as a defender of multipolarity. Trump's planned call with Putin is being amplified, though later clarified by UAF sources as a call with Zelenskyy. RF IO is promoting communistic social policies, celebrating infrastructure in Bryansk region, and promoting industrial self-sufficiency. RF is utilizing nationalistic cultural events (Vladivostok Corridor of Glory) for morale. RF IO is propagating conspiracy theories about opposition deaths in Germany. RF is also leveraging historical narratives (WWII victors) to assert influence over European capitals. RF IO continues to push narratives about UK sanctions being cynical and deflect accusations of child abduction. RF IO is also using conspiracy theories (Epstein) to undermine Western narratives. RF IO is leveraging UAF statements on "frozen conflict" for Ukraine. RF IO is pushing a narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. RF IO is using light-hearted content, and providing daily news summaries. RF IO using a photo of Putin at a podium in a Chinese-style building to project diplomatic success. RF IO claims Kupyansk was "subsidized" and a reminder of a "totalitarian regime" to de-legitimize Ukrainian control. RF IO also mocks Zelenskyy's actions. RF actor-volunteer interview reinforces morale. RF IO also uses an ambiguous graphic with Apple logo and date "09 09 25", potentially hinting at future IO or cyber activity aimed at the West. The death of a Russian citizen at Burning Man has potential for IO exploitation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF:
    • Air Defense: Operating under intense pressure, successfully intercepting a high volume of drones and missiles, but with confirmed fatalities and infrastructure damage (Kostiantynivka, Nikopol region, Kirovohrad). Has secured additional air defense systems from Nordic/Baltic countries, indicating continued efforts to bolster capabilities. Currently responding to a new UAV threat towards Kyiv and Kharkiv. Confirmed a Molniya UAV hit a university in Kharkiv. A new RF UAV group is active in Chernihiv region moving southwest. UAF successfully downed a "Gerbera" reconnaissance drone. New Shahed threat detected in Donetsk Oblast (including Pokrovsky district, Belozerske/Dobropillya) with 9 of 14 drones reportedly intercepted or diverted. New UAV group from Kharkiv to Donetsk Oblast. New UAV group from Donetsk to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New UAV group in Southern Sumy Oblast moving west, requiring UAF response. Reports a power outage in Krasnodar Krai due to a UAV strike. UAF claims significant destruction of RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Ground Forces: Maintaining defensive posture under intense pressure in Sieversk and Kupyansk. Denying RF claims of control in Kupyansk, with new video showing successful UAF counter-action against flag-planting RF assault group. DeepState is now confirming RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk, though UAF still denies firm control of the city center, only small group infiltration. Reports of RF successfully destroying UAF motorized units near Pokrovsk with casualties. Repelling RF forces near Tovste. Employing tactical deception and actively countering enemy infiltration attempts (Pokrovsk axis). Demonstrated effectiveness with FPV drones against personnel and UAVs. Pioneering ground robotics for combat, evacuation, and logistics (3rd Assault Brigade "NC13"). Actively conducting medical evacuations and saving wounded. Destroying RF artillery, vehicles, antennas, and infantry with drone and artillery strikes. Successful strike on RF UAV warehouse. Successfully engaging RF armored vehicles in Zaporizhzhia direction with drone and artillery fire. UAF highlights the dedication of volunteer tankers. UAF Presidential Brigade drone footage shows successful targeting and destruction of RF defensive positions/fortifications. UAF drone destroys RF vehicle. UAF continues to engage and destroy RF assets near Pokrovsk. UAF drone strikes have successfully destroyed a D-20 artillery gun and a 2S3 Akatsiya self-propelled howitzer, and struck fortified positions. UAF special forces (Shybenyk Squad, 2nd Assault Company, Kraken) are conducting "rusorez" operations in Sumy Oblast, indicating active ground defense and potential offensive actions. UAF forces are actively engaging RF positions with artillery and drone strikes, as evidenced by thermal imaging footage. UAF forces are observing and adapting to RF use of anti-thermal imaging cloaks for infiltration tactics, particularly aimed at hunting drone operators and mortar teams. UAF drone footage shows significant damage to civilian infrastructure in Pokrovsk, as well as documentation of damaged military vehicles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Naval Forces: Demonstrated capability to conduct successful strikes against RF Black Sea Fleet assets. Ukraine has launched its largest port investment project, indicating a focus on economic resilience and maritime infrastructure development. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Information Environment: Actively engaging in diplomatic efforts for support (Zelenskyy in Denmark, joint drone/missile plant, new missile fuel production, securing additional air defense, engagement with Trump, Nordic-Baltic Eight meeting, US agreement on subsoil projects, Sybiha's response to Putin, scheduled call with Trump for European leaders including Zelenskyy and Macron, UK Defense Minister's statements on troop plans, Trump's planned call with Putin - clarified as a call with Zelenskyy, not Putin, Macron's statements on security guarantees, Zelenskyy/Macron joint media statements, Trump's special envoy Witkoff in Paris for "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting, Zelenskyy on "Korean scenario", Johnston on war ending by Christmas, Rubio on Trump/Israel, Ukraine's largest port investment project, Ukraine parliament on temporary booking for defense industry, Zelenskyy on Europe's insufficient guarantees, Zelenskyy on winter threat from Putin), implementing internal reforms (Defence City, mobilization, returning state land, prosecuting evasion schemes, SBU detaining agitators, NAZK anti-corruption guide, mobilization regulations for critical enterprises), recruiting drone operators, bolstering morale (torchlight ceremony, supporting military families, meetings with POW/missing families in Kirovohrad, highlighting combat medics, interviewing commanders, new TAF Bonus system for incentivizing drone operators, highlighting volunteer tankers, highlighting 58th Motorized Brigade tanker, RBC-Ukraine fundraising for UAF batteries, Zaporizhzhia housing restoration, Coordination Headquarters meeting with 78th Air Assault Regiment families, captured RF soldier interview, UAF IO on Russian restrictions, UAF IO using Trump meme, morale-boosting messages for "rusorez"), and countering RF narratives (Kupyansk denial (now refined to acknowledge infiltration attempts), documenting war crimes, rejecting territory exchange, GUR warning of RF IPSO army, countering RF spin on Zelenskyy's "Coalition of Willing" statement). Providing humanitarian aid (Berdyansk). Promoting domestic defense production (Bohdana, Vampire drones). New statement of resolve to "achieve all goals with weapons" if peace terms are not met. Responding to air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia. Focusing on Kyiv housing/infrastructure restoration. Reporting fire extinguished in Kalush after night attack. UAF is using air situation maps to inform the public. UAF is also engaging in discussions about future regulations for men exiting Ukraine, with a confirmed statement from Podolyak. UAF is using the destroyed S-300 and radar for IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Counter-Intelligence/Anti-Corruption: SBU actively detaining agent groups (new report of "agitators"). General Prosecutor preventing illegal property transfers for educational institutions, demonstrating effective domestic governance and security efforts, and exposing mobilization evasion schemes. NAZK's guide against corruption indicates continued focus on internal governance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Sustained and Adaptive Multi-Domain Strikes (Targeting Defense Industry/Fuel/Logistics/Personnel/Civilians - now including "Motor" aircraft repair plant in Lutsk, "Donmashstroy" in Kramatorsk, UAF Electronics in Khmelnytskyi, new UAV wave towards Kyiv and Kharkiv - with a hit on a Kharkiv university, drone/artillery strikes on Kharkiv Direction, Nikopol region, and railway infrastructure in Kirovohrad, with civilian targeting in Kostiantynivka, and potentially an automobile bridge in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, now also targeting UAF UAV operator locations in Kupyansk-Uzlovoy, and "Spetsoboronmash" plant near Kyiv Oblast border, and new Shahed threats in Donetsk Oblast and towards Belozerske/Dobropillya, and КАБ strikes on Sumy Oblast, new UAV group Kharkiv to Donetsk Oblast, new UAV group Donetsk to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, new UAV group in Southern Sumy Oblast moving west, and UAV strike on substation in Krasnodar Krai): RF demonstrates a confirmed capability to conduct persistent missile and drone strikes specifically targeting Ukraine's defense industry (now including electronics for UAVs and artillery, aircraft repair plants, a defense plant near Kyiv Oblast border), fuel infrastructure, and railway infrastructure (confirmed Kirovohrad). They are inflicting civilian casualties (Kostiantynivka, Nikopol region) and using FPV drones against civilian transport and tactical military targets (checkpoint). They are able to sustain a high tempo of air attacks, now expanding air-launched КАБ strikes to Donetsk and Sumy. They claim successful strikes on UAF military infrastructure (Lancet on radar, drones/artillery on Kharkiv dugouts/mortar, UAV operator location, a Molniya UAV hit a Kharkiv university). They claim to be using "modernized" drones. New UAV wave towards Kyiv and Kharkiv confirms continued and adaptive long-range strike capabilities. RF provides animated strike schemes to highlight this capability for IO purposes. RF continues to utilize BM-21 Grad MLRS for indirect fire support. RF can identify and target UAF artillery, as evidenced by the UAF drone striking the RF 2S19 Msta-S. RF also uses drones for reconnaissance and targeting of its own artillery (e.g., 2S22 "Bogdana"). The UAV strike inside Krasnodar Krai demonstrates RF is also vulnerable to such attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Concentrated Ground Offensive (Sieversk, Kupyansk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, Yanvarske) with Adaptable & Hybrid Tactics (Including Anti-Thermal Cloaks): RF can concentrate forces for localized gains, maintain intense pressure in urban environments (Kupyansk with new RF claims of significant control, contested by UAF, but UAF shows counter-action against flag-planting, and RF claims UAF surrender. DeepState now confirms RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk, though UAF still denies firm control of the city center, only small group infiltration. Reports of RF successfully destroying UAF motorized units near Pokrovsk with casualties.), and adapt tactics to include unconventional infiltration methods (e.g., small groups in Pokrovsk) and utilizing pack animals for logistics. They continue localized offensive actions on multiple axes, with maps indicating significant pressure on Sieversk. New claims of liberating Kamyshevakha indicate continued efforts for localized gains in Donetsk Oblast, leveraging night advances through heavily fortified areas. RF claims of assaulting Novoselivka and full control of Yanvarske signal a westward push into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Putin's claim of "all groupings successfully advancing" is an IO effort, but consistent with continued offensive actions. RF is actively using drones for reconnaissance and targeting in frontline operations (Espanola commander interview). RF forces are employing anti-thermal imaging cloaks to facilitate covert infiltration, specifically targeting UAF drone operators and mortar teams, demonstrating an adaptive response to UAF tactical advantages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Comprehensive Information Warfare and Expanded Diplomatic Leverage: RF possesses robust capabilities to conduct diverse narrative campaigns, manipulate information, engage in diplomatic outreach (e.g., EEF, African leaders, DPRK (new confirmed invitation, subsidized Moscow-Pyongyang flights), Vietnam, China, SCO, Congo, Aliyev, Trump, Slovak PM Fico's statements) to counter international isolation and project strength, now with explicit statements of support from DPRK and confirmed strategic dialogue with Vietnam. They actively address and control internal information (cybersecurity, military legal aid, Rosfinmonitoring designations, asset seizures, blogger arrests, Melitopol TG admins imprisoned, Beslan commemoration, humanitarian aid collections, agricultural development, increased wages, CSTO exercises for drone expertise, Belgorod information control, Duma on Max Messenger, promoting humanitarian medical evacuation from China, convicts Bryansk infiltrators, Far Eastern surcharge extension, "T Plus" investment plans, ERA-GLONASS connected cars), and promote military training (VOIN Center). RF propaganda attempts to shape international perception (Europe wants war by 2030, EU gas pact issues, Germany energy deficit, Polish deportations of Ukrainians, German politician's rhetoric, Gorlovka mayor issues, US Venezuela rhetoric, Moscow travel banners, new claims by former Polish President Duda on Ukraine dragging NATO into war, framing NATO ISR as provocative, communistic housing proposals, leveraging Trump's comments on the war's difficulty, Nagorno-Karabakh analysis, UK sanctions on "Victory Volunteers", UK accusations on child abduction, Slovak PM Fico's statements on EU isolation, Epstein conspiracy theory, Xi Jinping & Putin challenge West IO). They actively promote technological advancements (unmanned trams, Rosptrebnadzor smartphone assistance). They are actively crowdfunding for military equipment (drones). Putin's recent press conference in China served as a major platform to disseminate RF narratives on the conflict, NATO, Ukraine's sovereignty, peace talks, and UAF manning levels. New messaging from Putin about "light in the tunnel" for settlement while being ready for military solution, blaming the West for failed peace, claiming all RF advances are successful, and questioning UAF manning. New reports of moldy rations suggest potential internal logistics and morale issues. RF military culture shows dehumanizing elements. RF IO is now actively deflecting Trump's "conspiracy" claims and using highly derogatory language against Zelenskyy. Trump's planned call with Putin is being amplified, though UAF sources clarify this as a call with Zelenskyy. RF IO is promoting communistic social policies, celebrating infrastructure in Bryansk region, and promoting industrial self-sufficiency. RF is utilizing nationalistic cultural events (Vladivostok Corridor of Glory) for morale. RF IO is propagating conspiracy theories about opposition deaths in Germany. RF is also leveraging historical narratives (WWII victors) to assert influence over European capitals. RF IO continues to push narratives about UK sanctions being cynical and deflect accusations of child abduction. RF IO is also using conspiracy theories (Epstein) to undermine Western narratives. RF IO is leveraging UAF statements on "frozen conflict" for Ukraine. RF IO is pushing a narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. RF IO is using light-hearted content, and providing daily news summaries. RF IO using a photo of Putin at a podium in a Chinese-style building to project diplomatic success. RF IO claims Kupyansk was "subsidized" and a reminder of a "totalitarian regime" to de-legitimize Ukrainian control. RF IO also mocks Zelenskyy's actions. RF actor-volunteer interview reinforces morale. RF IO uses an ambiguous graphic with Apple logo and date "09 09 25", potentially hinting at future IO or cyber activity aimed at the West. The death of a Russian citizen at Burning Man has potential for IO exploitation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Intentions:
  • Strategic Objective: Degrade Ukrainian Warfighting Capacity, Break National Resilience, and Undermine Western Support.
    • Degrade UAF Defense Industry, Logistics, and Inflict Civilian Casualties: RF intends to systematically target Ukraine's ability to produce and sustain military operations by striking defense industry (now including electronics for UAVs and artillery, aircraft repair plants, "Spetsoboronmash" plant near Kyiv Oblast border), fuel, and railway infrastructure (confirmed Kirovohrad strikes), now with added pressure on Donetsk and Sumy, and by extension, inflict civilian casualties (Kostiantynivka, Nikopol region) to degrade morale and force UAF to divert resources. New UAV attacks on Kyiv and Kharkiv signal intent to maintain pressure on capital and strategic targets, as demonstrated by the Molniya UAV hitting a Kharkiv university. Potential strike on an automobile bridge in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicates intent to disrupt transportation. Strikes on Kramatorsk indicate intent to target logistical/industrial centers in the Donbas. Targeting UAF UAV operator locations is a specific intent to degrade UAF drone capabilities. The new Shahed threats in Donetsk Oblast and towards Belozerske/Dobropillya indicate intent to sustain and expand these drone attacks. New КАБ launches on Sumy Oblast extend the strategic aerial pressure. The overall intent is to cripple Ukraine's ability to wage war, disrupt economic life (port investment project), and sow public discontent. The new UAV group from Kharkiv to Donetsk Oblast reinforces this intent. The UAV strike inside Krasnodar Krai may provoke retaliatory strikes or a further hardening of RF domestic air defense. The new UAV group from Donetsk to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicates an intent to expand strategic aerial pressure further west. The new UAV group in Southern Sumy Oblast moving west indicates an intent to maintain or increase aerial reconnaissance and strike capabilities in this border region, potentially probing UAF air defenses or identifying targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Achieve Operational Success in Donbas & Kharkiv Oblasts and Push West into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: RF intends to achieve significant ground gains, particularly in Sieversk for a strategic breakthrough and in Kupyansk to secure supply lines, now explicitly claiming control of a significant portion of the city and even UAF surrender, despite UAF counter-action. DeepState's confirmation of RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk provides a critical validation of RF intent to secure this city, though UAF still denies firm control of the city center. The successful RF engagement against UAF motorized units near Pokrovsk suggests an intent to disrupt UAF reinforcements/movement to the front. New claims of liberating Kamyshevakha indicate continued intent to push on the Donetsk axis. RF claims of assaulting Novoselivka and full control of Yanvarske signal a new, explicit intent to push westward into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, expanding the operational area of conflict significantly. Renewed small-group infiltration attempts on Pokrovsk indicate continued intent to push on this axis. Continued drone/artillery strikes in Kharkiv direction also aim to support ground efforts. The continued use of BM-21 Grad MLRS signals intent for sustained heavy fire support on these fronts. The adoption of anti-thermal imaging cloaks demonstrates an intent to circumvent UAF drone/thermal surveillance advantages and conduct more effective infiltration/sabotage behind UAF lines, specifically targeting high-value UAF assets like drone operators and mortar teams. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Consolidate Anti-Western Bloc & Project Strength: RF seeks to deepen strategic cooperation with non-Western nations (DPRK (new confirmed invitation, subsidized Moscow-Pyongyang flights), Vietnam, China, SCO, Congo, Aliyev) and project an image of global influence and technological prowess (longevity discussions, unmanned trams, increased gas supplies to China, agricultural development, increased wages, CSTO exercises for drone expertise), while reinforcing domestic support through propaganda (Volgodonsk memorial, Pervomaisk renovation, Putin's humanitarian acts, Manchurian Operation commemoration, Beslan commemoration, humanitarian aid collections, "never give up" messaging, promoting infrastructure projects (IT Cube in Glinishchevo, Suponevo Polyclinic, Suponevo School Sports Hall), import substitution, promoting specific military units like "Espanola" and war correspondents (Poddubny's birthday, WarGonzo "Behind the Balaclava"), FSB counter-deception campaign, promoting humanitarian medical evacuation from China) and addressing internal resource needs (crowdfunding for drones, internal anti-corruption actions, blogger arrests, Melitopol TG admins imprisoned, convicts Bryansk infiltrators). Putin's press conference was instrumental in projecting this image, with new messaging on US/Western seizure of RF reserves, SCO non-confrontation, and willingness to raise negotiation level. Medvedev's statements further justify the SMO. RF is also actively showcasing its domestic tech support (Rosptrebnadzor for smartphones) and social policy (child bullying). The invitation for Kim Jong Un reinforces this anti-Western bloc formation. RF IO on "unipolar world" being unfair reinforces this intent. Leveraging Trump's planned call with Putin will serve to project diplomatic influence, despite the clarification that the call is with Zelenskyy. RF is also using nationalistic cultural events (Vladivostok Corridor of Glory) and leveraging historical narratives (WWII victors) to solidify domestic support and project influence. RF IO is exploiting internal incidents (Krasnodar military pilot murder) to shape public perception. RF is also leveraging statements by Slovak PM Fico to portray EU isolation. RF IO on Epstein conspiracy theory demonstrates an intent to undermine Western institutions. RF IO using a photo of Putin at a podium in a Chinese-style building to project diplomatic success. RF IO from Rybar indicates a push for concise information summaries. RF IO framing Kupyansk as a "subsidized" town with a "totalitarian past" aims to culturally justify its capture. RF IO leveraging Western statements (Kaya Kallas) to highlight perceived anti-Western unity demonstrates intent to amplify this narrative. The ambiguous IO with an Apple logo and date "09 09 25" indicates an intent to generate curiosity, potentially for a future cyber or information operation, or to sow confusion. The interview with an actor-volunteer aims to boost morale and humanize the SMO. The extension of the "Far Eastern surcharge", "T Plus" investment plans, and "ERA-GLONASS" connected cars all demonstrate an intent to foster internal economic stability, technological self-sufficiency, and long-term development. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Information Dominance & Undermining Ukrainian Leadership: RF aims to control narratives by amplifying UAF vulnerabilities (winter, supply issues, ground losses - Kupyansk claims vs. UAF denials. DeepState now confirms RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk, though UAF still denies firm control of the city center, only small group infiltration. Reports of RF successfully destroying UAF motorized units near Pokrovsk with casualties. Kamyshevakha claims, Novoselivka/Yanvarske claims, claims of critical UAF manning levels, moldy rations reports for internal consumption, UAF drone requests), fabricating UAF misdeeds, promoting its military effectiveness (modernized drones, Lancet strikes, effective use of personnel as "cheapest weapon," drone/artillery strikes on Kharkiv direction, mortar strike in settlement, Msta-S howitzer successes, FPV drone strike on checkpoint, strike on UAF UAV operator location, drone operator hit footage from MoD Russia), and diplomatic successes, and sowing discord within Ukraine (e.g., exploiting debates on Telegram, refugee narratives, mobilization issues, UAF drone operators deserting claims, local governance issues in occupied territories, ridiculing Ukrainian political decisions, UAF surrender claims in Kupyansk, Melitopol TG admins imprisoned, Ukrainian customs corruption, Poroshenko's Telegram ban stance, Alex Parker Returns inflammatory rhetoric against "Khokhols", derogatory content on UAF female servicewomen, ex-Azerbaijani MiG-29 as disinformation, RF spin on Zelenskyy's "Coalition of Willing" statement, Ukrainian parliament debates on temporary booking for defense industry, UAF discussions on exit for men). Putin's statements on Zelenskyy's legitimacy, the possibility of talks in Moscow, and the necessity of referendums on territories, directly challenge UAF's narrative. RF will actively promote legal avenues for military personnel to leave service. RF will actively attempt to create friction between Ukraine and its allies (new claims by former Polish President Duda on Ukraine dragging NATO into the war, Polish deportations, EU foreign policy trust, German political discord, UK accusations on child abduction, UK sanctions on "Victory Volunteers"). Putin's new claims of all groupings successfully advancing and seeing "light in the tunnel" for settlement while being ready for military solution, coupled with blaming the West for failed peace efforts, are designed to project strength and flexibility, and further undermine UAF resolve. RF IO is now actively deflecting Trump's "conspiracy" claims and using highly derogatory language against Zelenskyy. Trump's announced call with Putin will be leveraged by RF IO, despite the clarification that the call is with Zelenskyy. RF IO is also attempting to generate conspiracy theories and discredit opposing political forces (German opposition deaths). RF IO is also attempting to use internal RF military incidents, such as the alleged murder of a pilot, to reinforce narratives of internal security or to divert attention. RF also intends to control information internally, as seen in Belgorod, to manage public perception of UAV attacks. RF IO is leveraging UAF statements on a "frozen conflict" scenario. RF IO is pushing a narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. RF IO will mock Zelenskyy's actions, such as sanctioning a Russian singer. The death of a Russian citizen at Burning Man has potential for RF IO to highlight perceived dangers or failures in Western countries. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Courses of Action (COAs):
  • MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action):
    1. RF will continue to maintain intense offensive pressure on the Sieversk axis to achieve an operational encirclement, reinforcing with IO imagery as observed. RF will likely commit its main effort to seizing full control of Kupyansk, escalating urban combat and attempting to interdict UAF reinforcements, leveraging its confirmed presence and infiltration attempts in the city, and capitalizing on fragmented UAF defenses as suggested by DeepState and Colonelcassad. RF will actively promote claims of UAF surrender in Kupyansk through its IO, even if unverified. RF will seek to consolidate and exploit claimed gains around Kamyshevakha to advance further in Donetsk Oblast, potentially threatening access to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. RF will attempt to exploit claimed control of Yanvarske and foothold in eastern Novoselivka to further advance westward in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, establishing new forward positions and potentially securing key logistical routes. Localized offensive pressure on the Pokrovsk axis will continue, attempting to counter UAF gains and exploit any weaknesses (e.g., continued small group tactics), likely resulting in further damage to civilian infrastructure as observed by UAF drones and successful destruction of UAF motorized units on approaches. RF will actively document any tactical successes (e.g., damaged military vehicles, destruction of UAF artillery/equipment) for IO purposes. Localized assaults in the Vovchansk direction will persist, supported by Msta-S howitzer operations, BM-21 Grad MLRS, and drone/artillery strikes in the Kharkiv direction, including targeting UAF artillery in settlements. RF will actively seek to disrupt UAF logistics via further strikes on railway infrastructure (confirmed in Kirovohrad/Znamenka) and will continue air-launched КАБ strikes, expanding to new areas like Donetsk Oblast (including new UAV group from Kharkiv to Donetsk, and new UAV group from Donetsk to Dnipropetrovsk) and Sumy Oblast (including new UAV group in Southern Sumy moving west), and specifically targeting UAF defense industry (e.g., electronics for UAVs/artillery in Khmelnytskyi, "Motor" aircraft repair plant in Lutsk, "Donmashstroy" in Kramatorsk, "Spetsoboronmash" plant near Kyiv Oblast border), and will continue indiscriminate shelling/drone attacks on civilian population centers (e.g., Kostiantynivka, Nikopol region), including use of FPV drones against civilian transport and tactical targets (checkpoint). RF will likely attempt to conduct further strikes on transportation infrastructure, as suggested by the Ivanivka bridge strike claim, to disrupt UAF logistics and movement. RF will continue to actively target UAF UAV operator locations, as demonstrated by the strike in Kupyansk-Uzlovoy. RF will continue to target educational facilities, as evidenced by the "Molniya" UAV strike on a Kharkiv university. New Shahed threats in Donetsk Oblast and towards Belozerske/Dobropillya are consistent with this. UAF special forces operations in Sumy Oblast are a new dynamic to this MLCOA, with RF likely to counter these incursions with increased security or fire. RF will continue to utilize anti-thermal imaging cloaks to facilitate covert infiltration operations, particularly targeting UAF drone operators and mortar teams, as a standard tactic across the front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    2. RF will conduct sustained, medium-to-high volume drone and missile strikes, with a heightened focus on defense industry (UAV/artillery electronics, aircraft repair plants, "Spetsoboronmash" plant near Kyiv Oblast border), fuel, and railway infrastructure targets (as seen in Kirovohrad/Znamenka), alongside opportunistic strikes on population centers resulting in civilian casualties (Kostiantynivka, Nikopol region), including use of FPV drones against civilian transport and tactical targets, and now also targeting educational institutions (Kharkiv university). Expect continued targeting of critical infrastructure, logistics hubs, and military installations across Ukraine, including renewed strikes on Khmelnytskyi Oblast, Kirovohrad Oblast, and continued pressure on Zaporizhzhia, Nikopol, Druzhkivka, and Kyiv Oblasts. RF will leverage claimed "modernized drones" and precision munitions like Lancet to target UAF military assets (e.g., radar, UAF UAV operator locations, artillery - as evidenced by UAF drone striking RF 2S19 Msta-S. UAF claims destruction of RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which may impact RF air defense capabilities and provoke retaliatory strikes). RF's animated strike scheme is indicative of this sustained campaign. UAF will continue to observe and adapt to any technical changes in RF UAVs. A new group of UAVs targeting the Kyiv area and Kharkiv, and a new group in Chernihiv region moving southwest, along with a new UAV group from Kharkiv to Donetsk Oblast, and a new UAV group from Donetsk to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and a new UAV group in Southern Sumy Oblast moving west, is consistent with this COA, with UAF air defense actively responding as seen in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. New Shahed threats in Donetsk Oblast and towards Belozerske/Dobropillya (with 5 remaining active) are also consistent with this, requiring continued and adaptive air defense. New КАБ launches on Sumy Oblast extend this aerial threat. The UAV strike in Krasnodar Krai may lead to increased RF air defense measures or a more aggressive posture for cross-border strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    3. RF Information Operations will heavily amplify claims of successful ground gains in Sieversk, Kupyansk (now explicitly claiming "about half" of the city, and UAF surrender, and leveraging UAF sources that confirm infiltration and presence but deny firm control of the center), Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, and Yanvarske, portraying them as decisive advances. Messaging will aggressively highlight the deepening RF-DPRK (including Kim Jong Un's invitation, subsidized Moscow-Pyongyang flights), RF-Vietnam, RF-China (trade, longevity discussions, increased gas supplies), and RF-Congo relationships as a sign of global support and a counter to Western isolation, leveraging the optics of Putin's China visit and press conference, and emphasizing the SCO as a united front. Narratives will continue to promote Russia's diplomatic influence, technological resilience (unmanned trams, Rosptrebnadzor smartphone assistance, ERA-GLONASS connected cars), and economic resilience (import substitution, agricultural development, increased wages, promoting infrastructure development (IT Cube in Glinishchevo, Suponevo Polyclinic, Suponevo School Sports Hall), industrial self-sufficiency, Far Eastern surcharge extension, "T Plus" investment plans), while relentlessly pushing anti-Western rhetoric (e.g., "Europe wants war by 2030," EU gas pact issues, Germany energy deficit, Belgian FM remarks on EU trust, German politician's rhetoric, US/Western seizure of RF reserves, US Venezuela rhetoric, new claims by former Polish President Duda on Ukraine dragging NATO into the war, framing NATO ISR as provocative, Senator Pushkov deflecting Trump's "conspiracy" claims, Slovak PM Fico on EU China absence, "unipolar world" being unfair, leveraging Trump's comments on the war's difficulty, Nagorno-Karabakh analysis, UK sanctions on "Victory Volunteers", UK accusations on child abduction, Epstein conspiracy theory, Xi Jinping & Putin challenge West IO) and reacting to US statements on deterrence. **Expect narratives to focus on the alleged "difficult winter" for Ukraine (contrasting with Zelenskyy's statement), and increased internal information control measures to limit dissent and foreign influence (as seen in Belgorod), including countering deepfakes regarding military service and using Rosfinmonitoring designations. Putin's statements on Zelenskyy's legitimacy (expired term), the need for referendums for territorial questions, and the invitation for Zelenskyy to meet in Moscow (as seen in RF IO) will be central to RF IO, designed to undermine UAF leadership and control the narrative on peace talks. RF will also exploit Ukrainian domestic debates, such as the proposed Telegram ban (using Poroshenko's statements), issues related to mobilization, border evasion incidents, new RF claims of drone operators deserting, and ridiculing Ukrainian political decisions (e.g., street renaming), framing UAF leadership decisions negatively, and mocking Zelenskyy's actions (e.g., sanctioning Shufutinsky). RF will actively attempt to create friction between Ukraine and its allies (Polish deportations of Ukrainians). RF will continue to promote "reconstruction" in occupied territories (Pervomaisk, LNR internet speed) and nationalistic events (Volgodonsk memorial, Manchurian Operation commemoration, Beslan commemoration, humanitarian aid collections for children in SVO zone, Moscow travel banners, memorials like Благовещенск Alley of Memory, Vladivostok Corridor of Glory, actor-volunteer interviews) and advertise legal aid for soldiers seeking discharge, while also publicly crowdfunding for drones and promoting rhetoric that normalizes personnel losses in war (e.g., "cheapest weapon," "never give up"). RF will continue to exploit internal societal issues (bacon incident, migrant crime in Petersburg, Gorlovka mayor issues, moldy rations reports for internal consumption, fraud with Putin portrait, Ukrainian customs corruption) for IO impact. Putin's new claims of widespread RF advances and a dual track of "peace" vs. "military solution," along with claims of critical UAF manning levels and the West sabotaging peace efforts, will be central to this IO push. RF will also signal willingness to raise negotiation level. Medvedev's statement on "crack in world order" will justify SMO. Internal actions (asset seizures, blogger arrests, Melitopol TG admins imprisoned, FSB counter-deception campaign, convicts Bryansk infiltrators) will be framed as anti-corruption or upholding national security. RF will attempt to portray UAF internal issues (e.g., dead border guard, mobilization evasion, UAF drone requests, Ukraine parliament temporary booking for defense industry, UAF discussions on exit for men) as signs of weakness. RF internal military culture (graffiti with slurs, WarGonzo "Behind the Balaclava") will reinforce dehumanization. RF IO will use highly derogatory language against Zelenskyy and Poroshenko, and against Ukrainians in general (Alex Parker Returns' "Khokhols," Kotsnews' "pig's snout", Fighterbomber's mockery of Zelenskyy, derogatory content on UAF female servicewomen, ex-Azerbaijani MiG-29). Trump's announced call with Putin will be widely broadcast as a sign of RF's diplomatic influence, despite the clarification that the call is with Zelenskyy. RF IO will also mock Ukrainian servicewomen. RF will also attempt to generate conspiracy theories about political opponents (German opposition deaths) and leverage historical narratives (WWII victors) to assert influence. RF IO will also use the captured RF soldier interview to highlight alleged UAF mistreatment of prisoners or to promote the narrative of a brutal war. RF IO will also exploit internal incidents like the alleged murder of a military pilot at Krasnodar flight school to deflect criticism from the overall war effort, potentially framing it as a security measure. RF IO will leverage CSTO exercises to showcase drone expertise. RF IO will attempt to spin Zelenskyy's "Coalition of Willing" statement negatively. RF IO will leverage UAF statements on a "frozen conflict" scenario. RF IO will promote the narrative of Azerbaijan providing MiG-29s to Ukraine. RF IO will continue to provide daily news summaries and light-hearted content, including from Rybar. RF IO will attempt to culturally de-legitimize Ukrainian control over Kupyansk by framing it as "subsidized" with a "totalitarian past." RF IO will also potentially exploit the death of a Russian citizen at Burning Man for anti-Western narratives. The ambiguous graphic with "09 09 25" and an Apple logo is likely a precursor to a new IO campaign, possibly a cyber-related event or a significant information drop, designed to create uncertainty and misdirection. This will likely target Western audiences or the information space. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):
  1. Decisive Breakthrough in Sieversk and Coordinated Donbas/Dnipropetrovsk Offensive: RF leverages intense pressure to achieve a decisive operational encirclement of UAF forces in Sieversk, leading to a major collapse of UAF defensive lines in Donbas, which could necessitate widespread UAF redeployments. This could be coupled with a coordinated, large-scale ground attack aiming for a decisive breakthrough in Kupyansk, consolidating full control of the city and pushing west, and a broader offensive push deeper into Kharkiv Oblast, potentially involving new DPRK-supplied munitions or a significant commitment of reserves, leading to a multi-front collapse and widespread panic. A rapid advance following the claimed liberation of Kamyshevakha and the successful assault on Novoselivka/Yanvarske could threaten UAF positions further west towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, creating a new axis of deep penetration and potentially leading to the destruction of critical infrastructure like bridges in the region (e.g., Ivanivka). The new UAF special forces operations in Sumy Oblast could act as a spoiler to RF plans or provoke a more aggressive RF response in this sector, potentially including cross-border ground incursions to eliminate perceived threats. The widespread adoption of anti-thermal imaging cloaks could significantly enhance RF infiltration success, allowing them to bypass UAF forward defenses and conduct high-impact strikes behind lines (e.g., against C2, logistics, or specialized units). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  2. Systemic Air Defense Degradation & Strategic Infrastructure Collapse (Leveraging DPRK Assets, Cyber, & Advanced Drones, targeting UAF Electronics Manufacturing & Aircraft Repair Plants, UAV Operator Locations, "Spetsoboronmash" Plant, and Civilian/Educational Facilities, and Sumy Region): RF launches an even larger and more sophisticated coordinated missile and drone attack, specifically focusing on overwhelming and systematically degrading UAF air defense capabilities (including long-range radars and interceptor stockpiles, such as the S-300 PU and 9S36 Buk radar claimed destroyed by UAF) and facilities manufacturing electronics for UAVs/artillery, aircraft repair capabilities, UAF UAV operator locations, and the "Spetsoboronmash" plant near Kyiv Oblast border, prior to or concurrently with a strategic strike designed to cause systemic, multi-sector failure of Ukrainian critical infrastructure across multiple major regions simultaneously. This could integrate newly supplied DPRK munitions or refined drone tactics (including "Ь" series and expanded Lancet usage for air defense suppression), and focus on defense industry, energy, transportation (railway hubs, bridges), and C2 nodes. A sophisticated cyber-attack targeting SCADA systems controlling critical infrastructure could be used to amplify the physical damage, potentially exploiting Russia's acknowledged cybersecurity professional shortage in a coordinated offensive, leading to prolonged, multi-day disruptions. This could also include deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure such as educational facilities, as indicated by the Kharkiv university strike, to further break national resilience. The new Shahed threats in Donetsk Oblast and towards Belozerske/Dobropillya, and new КАБ launches on Sumy Oblast, and new UAV group from Kharkiv to Donetsk Oblast, and a new UAV group from Donetsk to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and a new UAV group in Southern Sumy Oblast moving west, indicate this is a credible and ongoing threat, potentially escalating in volume and coordination. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  3. Coordinated Hybrid Escalation in Baltic/NATO Border Regions & Western-Targeted Cyber/IO: RF executes a coordinated, large-scale hybrid operation in the Baltic region, combining covert drone incursions with intensified cyber-attacks against critical infrastructure and aggressive information operations. This aims to test NATO Article 5, sow discord, and draw significant NATO resources away from support for Ukraine. This could involve limited irregular forces or sabotage groups, potentially exacerbated by reported NATO logistics issues. Concurrently, RF would launch a significant, targeted cyber or information operation aimed at Western audiences/infrastructure, possibly leveraging the ambiguous "09 09 25" Apple logo graphic to create confusion and exploit vulnerabilities, similar to past Russian attempts at interference or large-scale disinformation campaigns. This would seek to undermine Western unity and public trust in institutions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:
  • Immediate (0-12 hours): Expect continued intense ground combat around Sieversk, Kupyansk (with urgent need to verify RF claims of control and UAF surrender, and to understand the full implications of DeepState's confirmation of RF presence and infiltration attempts, while also validating the extent of RF penetration and UAF's fragmented defense), Kamyshevakha (and potential for further RF advances), Novoselivka, and Yanvarske (and the veracity of RF claims of control and westward push), Pokrovsk (including potential further small-group infiltration attempts and counter-actions, and analysis of RF success against UAF motorized units), Vovchansk, and Tovste. New КАБ launches on Donetsk and Sumy indicate an immediate threat to those regions. The ongoing UAV attack from Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv, the new UAV on Kharkiv course, and the new UAV group in Chernihiv moving southwest, along with new Shahed threats in Donetsk Oblast and towards Belozerske/Dobropillya (with 5 remaining active), a new UAV group from Kharkiv to Donetsk Oblast, and a new UAV group from Donetsk to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and a new UAV group in Southern Sumy Oblast moving west, requires immediate air defense response and potentially proactive interdiction. UAF forces will be focused on holding defensive lines, definitively assessing RF claims in Kupyansk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, and Yanvarske, and responding to ongoing drone/missile/КАБ threats, particularly after the reported strike on UAF electronics in Khmelnytskyi, confirmed railway strikes in Kirovohrad/Znamenka, the deadly Kostiantynivka attack, attacks on Nikopol region, and new claimed strikes in Lutsk and Kramatorsk, and UAF UAV operator location in Kupyansk-Uzlovoy, the Molniya UAV hit on a Kharkiv university, and claimed Kalibr/Geran strikes on "Spetsoboronmash" plant near Kyiv Oblast border. Immediate decisions on reinforcing specific Sieversk/Kupyansk/Kamyshevakha/Novoselivka/Yanvarske sectors, allocating counter-battery/air defense fires, adapting counter-infiltration tactics (including against anti-thermal cloaks), and rapidly deploying new air defense assets will be critical. Intelligence collection on the specific implications of Putin's China visit and the RF-China-DPRK/RF-Congo/RF-Vietnam meetings will be paramount, as will monitoring for initial impacts of increased China-Russia trade, and the new Moscow-Pyongyang flights. Immediate verification of "air truce" claims and their implications is critical. UAF must ensure security preparations for Rosh Hashanah in Uman. Investigation into the dead DPSU serviceman near the Polish border is an immediate priority. GUR's warning about RF IPSO army necessitates immediate counter-IO planning. Prosecution of mobilization evasion schemes needs to be expedited. SBU will continue counter-agitator operations. UAF will leverage the successful strike on RF UAV warehouse in immediate IO. Diplomatic response to Putin's statements, as exemplified by Sybiha, will continue. The scheduled call with Trump for European leaders including Zelenskyy and Macron requires immediate preparation and coordinated messaging. UAF will continue to leverage the TAF Bonus system. Monitoring and information sharing regarding Trump's planned call with Putin will be critical, especially the clarification that the call is with Zelenskyy, not Putin. UAF must continue to counter RF IO on Ukrainian corruption and internal debates, particularly regarding Telegram. UAF will leverage the successful downing of the "Gerbera" drone and the destruction of RF artillery (D-20, 2S3, 2S19 Msta-S) in immediate IO. UAF special forces operations in Sumy Oblast are an immediate priority for monitoring RF response. The interview with the captured RF soldier can be immediately used for IO. UAF must monitor for any RF IO escalation related to the Krasnodar military pilot murder incident. UAF must manage the IO surrounding Zelenskyy's statement on the "Coalition of Willing" and "Korean Scenario". UAF will also use the largest port investment project for immediate IO. UAF will continue to highlight RF's use of anti-thermal cloaks for infiltration tactics. UAF will immediately prepare IO countering Putin's direct invitation to Zelenskyy, reinforcing Ukraine's sovereignty and conditions for peace. UAF will also need to monitor for internal RF messaging on information control (Belgorod). UAF will leverage the destruction of the RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar in immediate IO. UAF must prepare messaging on Podolyak's statement about border restrictions for men after martial law. UAF must prepare counter-IO for RF narratives on "frozen conflict" and Azerbaijani MiG-29s, and the "subsidized" status of Kupyansk. Immediate analysis of RF internal security messaging regarding the Bryansk infiltrators is required. Immediate monitoring of the "09 09 25" Apple logo graphic and any associated IO is required. UAF must also assess the death of the Russian citizen at Burning Man for potential RF IO exploitation and prepare preemptive counter-messaging. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Short Term (12-48 hours): RF will likely attempt to consolidate gains in Sieversk, Kupyansk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, and Yanvarske, while continuing targeted strikes against defense, fuel, and railway infrastructure and opportunistic strikes on population centers, including Sumy, Donetsk, Khmelnytskyi, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Nikopol, Lutsk, Kramatorsk, UAF UAV operator locations, "Spetsoboronmash" plant, and educational facilities. UAF will need to continue active defense, analyze RF drone fragments for intelligence (especially for DPRK components or "Ь" series, "Gerbera" type, "Molniya" type), and leverage international support. Diplomatic efforts by President Zelenskyy in Denmark (including the joint drone/missile plant, new missile fuel production, and additional air defense) and ongoing military-to-military/high-level political coordination (e.g., with Trump and the "Coalition of the Resolute", and the scheduled call with Trump for European leaders including Zelenskyy and Macron, and Macron's statements on security guarantees) will be crucial for securing future aid and maintaining political momentum. Proactive counter-IO regarding RF claims (especially Kupyansk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, Yanvarske, UAF surrender, UAF manning levels, sabotaged peace efforts), the humanitarian impacts of strikes (Kostiantynivka, Nikopol region, Lutsk, Kramatorsk, Kharkiv university, "Spetsoboronmash" plant, Sumy КАБ strikes, Pokrovsk civilian damage), and the implications of the RF-China-DPRK/RF-Congo/RF-Vietnam alignment (including Kim Jong Un's invitation, and new Moscow-Pyongyang flights) will be vital. UAF leadership will also need to address the new mobilization bill's implementation and its impact on manpower, as well as internal information environment debates (e.g., Telegram ban discussion (addressing Poroshenko's statements), border evasion incidents (including the dead DPSU serviceman), the continuation of mobilization, new RF claims of drone operators deserting, Belousov deepfake, Polish deportations, Putin's statements on Zelenskyy's legitimacy and peace talks, new claims by former Polish President Duda, RF claims on NATO ISR, Ukrainian customs corruption, Poroshenko's Telegram ban stance, Alex Parker Returns inflammatory rhetoric against "Khokhols," Kotsnews' "pig's snout", RF spin on Zelenskyy's "Coalition of Willing" statement, derogatory content on UAF female servicewomen, ex-Azerbaijani MiG-29 disinformation, UAF drone requests, RF IO on Nagorno-Karabakh, UAF discussions on exit for men, Putin's direct invitation, Zelenskyy's statements on insufficient European guarantees and winter threat, Zelenskyy sanctions Shufutinsky), using transparent communication and demonstrating national unity (e.g., through morale-building events and anti-corruption efforts, and promoting ground robotics development and the efforts of combat medics and SBU counter-agitator operations, and the TAF Bonus system, RBC-Ukraine fundraising for UAF batteries, Zaporizhzhia housing restoration, Coordination Headquarters meeting with 78th Air Assault Regiment families). If "air truce" claims persist, UAF will need to further develop coordinated messaging. Monitoring for chemical hazards in shelled areas (Kalush) will be important. Kyiv's efforts on housing/infrastructure restoration will continue. All eyes will be on the outcome and messaging from Trump's call with Putin, requiring pre-planned UAF messaging, especially in light of the clarification that the call is with Zelenskyy. UAF will need to manage public sentiment regarding mobilization regulations for critical enterprises. Zelenskyy's comments on a "Korean scenario" will require careful follow-up messaging. RF IO on German opposition deaths and WWII victors needs a swift counter-narrative. UAF will continue to leverage destroyed RF air defense assets for IO. UAF will need to manage the narrative regarding future border restrictions for men. UAF must continue to counter RF IO on "frozen conflict" and Azerbaijani MiG-29s, and the "subsidized" status of Kupyansk. UAF must monitor for any RF retaliation for the Krasnodar Krai UAV strike. RF internal security messaging on infiltrators will likely be reinforced. RF milblogger summaries from Rybar will be important to track for sentiment. UAF must anticipate and counter any RF IO related to the "09 09 25" Apple logo graphic. UAF must prepare for potential RF IO exploiting the Burning Man death. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)

• Ukrainian force posture and readiness:
  • Ground Forces: UAF ground forces remain engaged in active defense across multiple axes, particularly in Sieversk and Kupyansk. Despite intense RF pressure and claims of control in Kupyansk, UAF continues to resist, as evidenced by successful counter-actions against RF flag-planting groups. DeepState's confirmation of RF presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk, while acknowledging RF lacks "firm control" and only "small groups" are infiltrating, indicates a fluid and contested operational environment. UAF defenses in Kupyansk are fragmented. UAF demonstrated tactical innovation with the deployment of ground robotic complexes ("NC13") by the 3rd Assault Brigade, enhancing combat, evacuation, and logistics capabilities. Special forces (Shybenyk Squad, 2nd Assault Company, Kraken) are conducting operations in Sumy Oblast, indicating proactive defensive/offensive actions in border regions. UAF units are effectively using FPV drones, artillery, and tactical deception against RF personnel, vehicles (including armored BTR-82s in Zaporizhzhia), and fortifications. UAF is demonstrating adaptability by observing and developing counter-tactics against RF's use of anti-thermal imaging cloaks for infiltration. Morale appears to be sustained, supported by internal morale-boosting efforts and individual acts of bravery (e.g., volunteer tanker, 425 OSHP "Skelya" soldier). The reported destruction of UAF motorized units near Pokrovsk suggests that while UAF is attempting to reinforce or maneuver, RF forces are capable of inflicting significant casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Air Defense: UAF air defense is actively engaged against a high volume and variety of RF aerial threats, including drones (Shahed, Molniya, Gerbera, FPV) and missiles (КАБ). Successful interceptions are ongoing, but confirmed strikes are still causing damage to infrastructure (railways, defense industry, educational facilities) and civilian casualties. UAF has secured additional air defense systems from Nordic/Baltic countries, indicating continued efforts to bolster capabilities and readiness against persistent aerial threats. The claim of destroying RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar in Zaporizhzhia indicates UAF capabilities for air defense suppression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Naval Forces: Ukraine has launched its largest port investment project, demonstrating resilience and long-term economic planning despite ongoing conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Recent tactical successes or setbacks:
  • Successes:
    • Deployment of "NC13" ground robotic complexes by 3rd Assault Brigade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Successful counter-action against RF flag-planting assault group in Kupyansk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Successful interception of an RF "Gerbera" reconnaissance drone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Drone and artillery strikes destroying RF D-20 artillery, 2S3 self-propelled howitzer, and 2S19 Msta-S. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Successful drone strikes against RF armored vehicles (BTR-82) in Zaporizhzhia direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF special forces operations in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Successful destruction of RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Setbacks:
    • RF claims of significant presence and infiltration attempts in Kupyansk, now partially acknowledged by UAF DeepState, indicating a contested and challenging situation. UAF defenses in Kupyansk are fragmented. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Confirmed deadly RF artillery/FPV drone strikes on Kostiantynivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Confirmed RF drone/artillery attacks on Nikopol region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Confirmed RF Shahed strikes on railway infrastructure in Kirovohrad. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Confirmed Molniya UAV hit on a university in Kharkiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Claimed RF strikes on UAF UAV operator location in Kupyansk-Uzlovoy. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
    • Claimed RF strikes on UAV/artillery electronics in Khmelnytskyi, Lutsk "Motor" aircraft repair plant, "Donmashstroy" in Kramatorsk, and "Spetsoboronmash" plant near Kyiv Oblast border. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
    • RF success in destroying UAF motorized units and inflicting casualties on approaches to Pokrovsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Resource requirements and constraints:
  • Air Defense Munitions: Continued high expenditure of air defense interceptors, requiring urgent replenishment from partners. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Advanced Air Defense Systems: Continued need for more advanced, layered air defense systems to counter evolving RF multi-domain strike packages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Counter-UAV Capabilities: Need for further development and deployment of counter-FPV drone and anti-thermal imaging cloak detection systems/tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Manpower: Ongoing need for mobilization and skilled personnel, with parliamentary discussions on "temporary booking for defense industry" and future exit restrictions for men after martial law indicating challenges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Financial Resources: Need for continued international financial aid and domestic fundraising (e.g., RBC-Ukraine collecting for batteries). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Defense Industrial Capacity: While domestic production is strong, the targeting of defense industry sites (electronics, aircraft repair, specialized defense plants) highlights a critical vulnerability and ongoing need for protection and dispersal. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Reconstruction: Significant resources required for housing and infrastructure restoration in Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, and other affected regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)

• Propaganda and disinformation campaigns:
  • RF Narratives:
    • "RF is winning, all groupings successfully advancing": Continues to be a core message, now heavily emphasizing claimed gains in Kupyansk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, and Yanvarske. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Undermining Zelenskyy/UAF Leadership: Putin's statements questioning Zelenskyy's legitimacy ("expired term"), offering talks in Moscow, and demanding referendums on territories. RF IO also mocking Zelenskyy's actions (sanctioning Shufutinsky), and exploiting internal debates (Poroshenko's Telegram ban, mobilization issues, border evasion, alleged drone operator desertions, "frozen conflict" scenario). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Anti-Western Unity: Amplifying the RF-China-DPRK/RF-Congo/RF-Vietnam alignment as a counter-balance to Western influence, leveraging Putin's China visit, SCO, and new Moscow-Pyongyang flights. RF IO also attempts to portray Europe as isolated (Slovak PM Fico) or internally divided (German opposition deaths, EU gas issues). Leveraging Western figures (Trump's comments on war's difficulty, Macron's statements on security guarantees, Xi/Putin challenge West IO) to support their narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Dehumanization of Ukrainians: Continued use of derogatory terms ("Khokhols," "pig's snout"), mockery of UAF servicewomen, and historical grievances to promote retribution. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Resilience & Domestic Strength: Promoting internal infrastructure projects, import substitution, technological advancements (ERA-GLONASS, "T Plus" investments, Far Eastern surcharge), and highlighting military heroes/volunteers (Teslya-Gerasimov, "Espanola" commander). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • "West sabotaging peace": Putin's narrative that the West is to blame for the conflict and for the failure of peace efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Targeted Mis/Disinformation: Claims of Azerbaijani MiG-29s to Ukraine, and the ambiguous "09 09 25" Apple logo graphic possibly hinting at a future cyber or IO event. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF Counter-Narratives:
    • Ukrainian Sovereignty and Resolve: Emphasizing rejection of territory exchange, commitment to achieving goals with weapons, and Sybiha's sharp response to Putin's Moscow meeting offer. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Western Support & Unity: Highlighting additional air defense from Nordic/Baltic countries, new missile fuel/drone plant in Denmark, US subsoil agreement, upcoming Trump/European leader call, UK troop plans, Macron's security guarantees. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF War Crimes & Atrocities: Documenting civilian casualties (Kostiantynivka, Nikopol, Kharkiv university, Pokrovsk) and damage to civilian infrastructure/defense industry. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF Innovation & Strength: Promoting domestic defense production (Bohdana, Vampire drones), ground robotics, and successful tactical operations against RF assets (drone interceptions, artillery destruction, special forces operations). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Weaknesses: Highlighting RF internal issues (moldy rations, Krasnodar pilot murder), personnel issues (captured RF soldier interview, anti-thermal cloaks for infiltration), and information control measures (Belgorod). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Public sentiment and morale factors:
  • Ukrainian Public: Resilience remains high, but continued deep strikes on civilian areas and infrastructure, coupled with the intensity of ground fighting (e.g., Kupyansk, Pokrovsk), likely cause distress. Morale is boosted by tactical successes (drone interceptions, destruction of RF equipment), international support, and domestic efforts (ground robotics, TAF Bonus system, infrastructure restoration). Discussions on mobilization regulations and future exit restrictions for men are sensitive but managed with transparency. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Russian Public: Morale is reinforced by state propaganda promoting military successes, economic resilience, and a united front against the West. Civilian-focused IO (infrastructure, social programs, medical evacuation) aims to maintain stability. However, reports of internal incidents (Krasnodar pilot murder, Belgorod information control) and the need for crowdfunding suggest underlying anxieties. Beslan commemoration serves to unify against perceived threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• International support and diplomatic developments:
  • Strong Support for Ukraine: Continued military and diplomatic support from European (Denmark, Nordic/Baltic countries, Macron's security guarantees) and UK partners. Upcoming call with Trump and European leaders, including Zelenskyy, highlights high-level engagement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Anti-Western Alignment: Deepening ties with China, DPRK (confirmed invitation, subsidized flights), Vietnam, and SCO members. This aims to counter Western isolation and build an alternative geopolitical bloc. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • US Role: Trump's statements create uncertainty but also suggest potential for engagement (though clarified to be with Zelenskyy, not Putin). Rubio's comments on Israel/West Bank indicate potential shifts in US foreign policy under a future Trump administration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Information Warfare in Diplomatic Sphere: Both sides are actively shaping the narrative around diplomatic engagements and statements from international leaders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

• Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

  1. Sustained and intensified ground offensive in Kupyansk (main effort), Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, and Yanvarske, utilizing hybrid tactics: RF will continue to prioritize seizing full control of Kupyansk through escalating urban combat and continued attempts to interdict UAF reinforcements, leveraging confirmed infiltration and fragmented UAF defenses. Pressure will be maintained on Sieversk. RF will attempt to consolidate and exploit gains around Kamyshevakha to advance further in Donetsk Oblast and push westward into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast via Novoselivka and Yanvarske, establishing new forward positions and securing logistical routes. Localized offensive pressure on Pokrovsk will continue, leveraging small-group infiltration and documented successes against UAF motorized units. Vovchansk will also see persistent assaults, supported by BM-21 Grad MLRS and drone/artillery strikes. RF will increasingly use anti-thermal imaging cloaks for covert infiltration, specifically targeting UAF drone operators and mortar teams. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  2. Increased frequency and sophistication of multi-domain strikes targeting Ukrainian defense industry, logistics, and critical infrastructure (including educational facilities) across multiple oblasts: RF will maintain a high tempo of precision missile (Kalibr, КАБ) and drone (Shahed, Lancet, Molniya) strikes, with a heightened focus on facilities manufacturing UAV/artillery electronics, aircraft repair plants, specialized defense plants near Kyiv Oblast border, railway infrastructure (Kirovohrad/Znamenka), and key bridges (potential Ivanivka strike). Indiscriminate shelling and drone attacks on civilian population centers (Kostiantynivka, Nikopol region) will continue. New UAV groups in Sumy (westward), Kharkiv to Donetsk, and Donetsk to Dnipropetrovsk indicate expanding aerial pressure. UAF air defense assets, particularly radar, will remain high-priority targets for Lancet munitions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  3. Aggressive and pervasive information operations (IO) aimed at delegitimizing UAF leadership, amplifying RF military successes, and undermining Western support, with a new focus on targeted cyber/IO against Western entities: RF IO will relentlessly push narratives of decisive RF advances in Kupyansk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, and Yanvarske. They will amplify Putin's statements questioning Zelenskyy's legitimacy and promoting RF's "peace" proposals while blaming the West for prolonging the conflict. RF will continue to showcase its anti-Western diplomatic bloc (China, DPRK, Vietnam, SCO) and internal resilience. Expect new, ambiguous IO campaigns, possibly related to cyber threats, targeting Western audiences or information systems, as suggested by the "09 09 25" Apple logo graphic. RF will also continue exploiting internal Ukrainian debates (mobilization, Telegram ban) and any setbacks for UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

  1. Decisive Operational Collapse in Donbas and Deep Penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: RF achieves a decisive operational encirclement of UAF forces in Sieversk, leading to a major collapse of UAF defensive lines, forcing widespread UAF redeployments. This is coupled with a large-scale, coordinated ground attack in Kupyansk, consolidating full control of the city and establishing a bridgehead for further westward advance into Kharkiv Oblast. A rapid breakthrough from Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, and Yanvarske further deepens RF penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, threatening key logistical infrastructure and major cities, potentially leading to a multi-front collapse and widespread panic. UAF special forces operations in Sumy Oblast could provoke a direct RF cross-border ground response to eliminate perceived threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  2. Systemic Air Defense Degradation and Strategic Infrastructure Collapse with Cyber Amplification: RF launches an overwhelming, multi-wave missile and drone attack, systematically degrading UAF air defense capabilities (including long-range radars and interceptor stockpiles, followed by or concurrent with a sophisticated cyber-attack targeting critical infrastructure SCADA systems. This aims to cause systemic, multi-sector failure of defense industry (UAV/artillery electronics, aircraft repair, specialized defense plants), energy, transportation (railway hubs, bridges), and C2 nodes across Ukraine. This could leverage newly supplied DPRK munitions or refined drone tactics, alongside deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure like educational facilities, leading to prolonged, widespread disruptions and a significant blow to national morale and economic function. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  3. Coordinated Hybrid Escalation in Baltic/NATO Border Regions & Mass Cyber/IO Offensive against Western Institutions: RF executes a coordinated, large-scale hybrid operation in the Baltic region, combining covert drone incursions with intensified cyber-attacks against critical infrastructure and aggressive information operations designed to test NATO Article 5 and draw significant NATO resources away from Ukraine. Simultaneously, RF launches a mass cyber-attack and associated disinformation campaign against critical Western institutions (e.g., financial systems, government infrastructure, media), potentially utilizing the "09 09 25" Apple logo graphic as a component of a large-scale influence operation to sow widespread discord, confusion, and distrust in Western systems and leadership. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

  • Immediate (0-12 hours):
    • Ground: Continued intense ground combat around Sieversk, Kupyansk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, Yanvarske, Pokrovsk, and Vovchansk. Urgent need to definitively assess RF penetration in Kupyansk and the extent of their claimed gains in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Immediate decisions on reinforcing threatened sectors, allocating fire support, and adapting counter-infiltration tactics against anti-thermal cloaks.
    • Air: Immediate air defense response to new UAV threats in Southern Sumy (westward), Chernihiv (SW), Donetsk (Pokrovsky district, Belozerske/Dobropillya), Kharkiv to Donetsk, and Donetsk to Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Continued monitoring for КАБ launches in Donetsk and Sumy. Urgent BDA for claimed strikes on Khmelnytskyi, Lutsk, Kramatorsk, Kupyansk-Uzlovoy, and the "Spetsoboronmash" plant.
    • IO/Diplomatic: Preparation for the Trump-Zelenskyy-European leaders call. Immediate counter-IO against RF claims of Kupyansk control and any new ambiguous IO targeting Western audiences. Monitoring of RF internal IO for impact of Burning Man death.
  • Short Term (12-48 hours):
    • Ground: RF will attempt to consolidate gains in contested areas. UAF will continue active defense, counter-attacks, and tactical adaptations (e.g., ground robotics, counter-thermal cloak tactics).
    • Air: RF will likely continue high-volume drone and missile strikes against defense industry, logistics, and population centers. UAF will focus on air defense replenishment and integration of new systems.
    • IO/Diplomatic: Sustained counter-propaganda efforts. Diplomatic engagements by Zelenskyy and partners to secure further aid. Monitoring the broader implications of RF-China-DPRK alignment. Management of public sentiment regarding mobilization and internal debates. Anticipation of RF IO related to the "09 09 25" Apple graphic.

6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. ISR Priority for Kupyansk (CRITICAL), Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka/Yanvarske, Pokrovsk Infiltration, Sumy UAVs, Anti-Thermal Cloaks, and RF IO "09 09 25" Graphic: Immediately task all-source ISR to establish definitive ground truth on RF control and infiltration in Kupyansk, providing real-time intelligence for UAF counter-attacks and interdiction of reinforcements. Simultaneously, maintain high-priority ISR on Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, and Yanvarske to assess claimed RF advances and potential for deep penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Elevate ISR on the Pokrovsk axis to detect and interdict unconventional infiltration attempts and document civilian damage. Prioritize tracking the new RF UAV group in Southern Sumy (westward), and the groups from Kharkiv to Donetsk and Donetsk to Dnipropetrovsk, to determine intent and likely targets. Actively monitor for RF use of anti-thermal imaging cloaks across all sectors, developing rapid detection and targeting solutions. Initiate immediate collection on the ambiguous "09 09 25" Apple logo graphic from Alex Parker Returns for any associated activity, to preemptively identify potential cyber or information operations targeting Western or Ukrainian interests. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2. Aggressive Counter-Attacks and Reinforcements in Kupyansk (CRITICAL), Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka/Yanvarske, Enhance Counter-Infiltration Tactics, and Leverage All-Domain Assets: Immediately commit tactical reserves and robust fire support (artillery, HIMARS, BM-21 Grad counter-battery) to decisively counter RF advances in Kupyansk, Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, and Yanvarske, with explicit orders to deny consolidation and disrupt westward movement. Refine and disseminate TTPs for countering small-group infiltration (Pokrovsk) and specifically develop rapid counter-tactics against anti-thermal imaging cloaks, prioritizing protection for drone operators and mortar teams. Accelerate operational deployment of ground robotic complexes ("NC13"). Systematically target RF artillery (D-20, 2S3, 2S19 Msta-S), armored vehicles (BTR-82), UAV warehouses, and fortifications using drone and precision artillery strikes. Provide all necessary support (ISR, fire, logistical) to UAF special forces in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3. Accelerate Air Defense Modernization, Munition Resupply, and EW (CRITICAL URGENCY), Counter-FPV/Advanced Drones, Protect Defense Industry and Educational Facilities, Strengthen Civilian Protection: Conduct immediate, comprehensive review of air defense dispositions, prioritizing systems for critical defense industry (UAV/artillery electronics, aircraft repair plants, "Spetsoboronmash" plant near Kyiv Oblast border), railway/bridge infrastructure, and population centers across all affected oblasts. Intensify coordination for urgent replenishment of interceptors and fast-track establishment of new missile/drone/fuel production capabilities in Denmark. Prioritize training for new EW/SHORAD systems and rapid counter-measures for adapted RF drones. Urgently develop and deploy counter-FPV drone capabilities and enhanced physical/air defense security for defense industry sites and educational facilities. Leverage successful UAF strikes on RF S-300 PU and 9S36 radar for intelligence on RF air defense vulnerabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4. High-Priority Intelligence Collection on RF-China-DPRK Military Cooperation, China Trade Impact, RF Negotiation Stance, RF Internal Issues (Military Pilot Murder, Belgorod Information Control, Burning Man Death), and Dehumanization Tactics (AND NATO ISR, Trump-Zelenskyy Call, RF IO Narratives): Immediately elevate collection requirements on RF-DPRK military cooperation (arms, technical specs, delivery, Moscow-Pyongyang flights) and the impact of increased China-Russia trade. Collect and analyze RF statements regarding negotiation (Zelenskyy's legitimacy, referendums, meeting conditions, direct invitation) to understand shifts in strategic objectives. Monitor RF internal issues, including the Krasnodar military pilot murder, Belgorod information control measures, and potential exploitation of the Burning Man death. Document and analyze RF dehumanization tactics (graffiti, IO content, actor-volunteer statements). Conduct urgent, all-source collection on the Trump-Zelenskyy call agenda and messaging. Analyze the role and rhetoric of the RF actor-volunteer Georgiy Teslya-Gerasimov for insights into RF morale and IO messaging. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5. Robust Counter-Propaganda and Strategic Communications (Kupyansk (CRITICAL)/Sieversk/Kamyshevakha/Novoselivka/Yanvarske, Civilian Casualties, Winter Narrative, RF-China-DPRK-Vietnam Alignment, Infrastructure Strikes, Internal Debates, Domestic Production, Ground Robotics, Putin's Statements, IPSO Army, Mobilization, Anti-Thermal Cloaks, RF IO "09 09 25" Graphic): Proactively disseminate verified information on RF attacks and high UAF interception rates. Immediately develop messaging to counter RF claims of gains in Kupyansk, Sieversk, Kamyshevakha, Novoselivka, and Yanvarske, providing factual context and highlighting UAF resilience with visual evidence. Leverage RF successes against UAF motorized units near Pokrovsk to highlight brutality and underscore need for support. Proactively counter RF "difficult winter" narratives by showcasing preparedness and international support. Highlight RF's reliance on rogue/neutral states (China, DPRK, Vietnam) and internal issues. Utilize BDA from defense industry, fuel, railway, and civilian strikes (Kostiantynivka, Nikopol, Kharkiv university, Pokrovsk) to highlight RF war crimes. Address internal debates transparently (mobilization, exit for men). Counter Putin's statements on Zelenskyy's legitimacy and meeting conditions, emphasizing Ukrainian sovereignty. Pre-emptively counter GUR's warning about RF IPSO army. Actively leverage the upcoming Trump-Zelenskyy-European leaders call to project high-level Western support. Actively counter RF's use of anti-thermal imaging cloaks. Prepare comprehensive counter-IO for any new RF cyber or information operations indicated by the "09 09 25" Apple logo graphic. Leverage the destruction of RF S-300 and radar for IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

6. Enhanced Border Security and Security for Mass Gatherings: Conduct immediate review of border security protocols to prevent illegal crossings and manage mobilization challenges. Implement heightened security for the Rosh Hashanah pilgrimage in Uman. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

//END REPORT//