OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: RF continues its multi-domain deep strike campaign and aggressive ground operations, particularly focusing on Kupyansk and Sieversk. UAF forces maintain defensive posture, demonstrating effective drone-based counter-battery. Diplomatic and information warfare efforts remain highly active, with RF consolidating anti-Western narratives and UAF securing international support.
Air-Missile Strikes:
UAF Shahed Inspection (Unknown Location): STERNENKO provides a photo of a downed Shahed-type UAV, highlighting potential modifications or damage to its nose section. This suggests ongoing UAF efforts to analyze and counter RF drone attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - STERNENKO)
Previous Missile Threat (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) & RF Strike Damage (Lutsk): The previous assessment of missile danger for Zaporizhzhia Oblast and damage in Lutsk remains valid, indicating persistent RF deep strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Ground Operations:
RF Claims Control of Kupyansk Center: TASS and WarGonzo (RF sources) release drone footage claiming Russian military control of the center of Kupyansk, specifically around the city administration building and Spartak stadium. Footage shows a civilian with an RF flag, damaged infrastructure, and map overlays. This, if confirmed, signifies a significant RF advance and consolidation of control in this critical sector. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS, WarGonzo, Colonelcassad)
UAF Destroys RF MLRS "Grad" (Confirmed): Оперативний ЗСУ (UAF source) provides video corroborating the destruction of an RF BM-21 "Grad" MLRS by a 77th Airmobile Brigade FPV drone, showing the MLRS firing and subsequent explosions. This confirms effective UAF drone-based counter-battery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Оперативний ЗСУ)
Previous Sieversk Direction (Clashes/Encirclement Attempt): The previous assessment of RF efforts to encircle UAF forces in Sieversk (Hryhorivka, Vyyimka, Serebryanka, Fedorivka) remains valid and remains a high-priority RF objective. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Previous Kupyansk, Lyman, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Kherson Directions: Previous reports of clashes in these directions remain valid. The liberation of Udachne (Pokrovsk axis) remains a UAF tactical success amidst continued fighting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Humanitarian Situation (Donetsk): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (UAF source) shares a video of civilians in Donetsk queuing for water, highlighting the humanitarian impact of the conflict and perceived RF "propaganda" surrounding aid distribution. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
RF Internal/Diplomatic:
RF Import Substitution (Ozempic): TASS reports Russia has "import-substituted" the diabetes/obesity drug "Ozempic," aiming to project economic resilience despite sanctions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS)
RF Military Fundraiser (UAV Detachment): Colonelcassad shares a video of Russian soldiers from a UAV detachment requesting donations for generators and vehicle-mounted radio stations due to equipment breakdowns. This indicates logistical and supply chain challenges within specific RF units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Colonelcassad)
RF Propaganda (Anti-Scam Campaign, Victory over Japan Parade, Anti-Western Rhetoric): Полиция Хабаровского края releases a video warning about phone scams, indicating internal security concerns. MoD Russia continues to promote the "Victory over militaristic Japan" parade in Khabarovsk, reinforcing nationalistic narratives. TASS and Басурин о главном feature Maria Zakharova and other analysts promoting Russia-China as a bulwark against Western "dictatorship" and "segregation." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Полиция Хабаровского края, MoD Russia, Басурин о главном, TASS)
Putin-Congo Meeting: TASS reports Putin met with Congo's leader, discussing bilateral relations, aiming to project RF's expanded diplomatic influence, particularly in Africa. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS)
UAF External/Diplomatic:
Zelenskyy Arrives in Denmark: РБК-Україна reports President Zelenskyy's arrival in Denmark for diplomatic engagements, signaling continued efforts to secure international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - РБК-Україна)
UK Sanctions Russia-aligned Entities: TASS reports the UK has expanded sanctions against 11 Russian entities, including "Movement of the First," "Volunteers of Victory," and the "Akhmat Kadyrov Foundation." This continues international pressure on RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - TASS)
Ukrainian Virtual Assets Bill: Оперативний ЗСУ reports the Verkhovna Rada supported a virtual assets bill in its first reading, indicating steps towards economic modernization and integration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Оперативний ЗСУ)
New Government Booking System (Diia): РБК-Україна reports a new booking system (likely for services/appointments) has launched on the "Diia" portal. This suggests ongoing government functionality and digital transformation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - РБК-Україна)
RF-aligned Propaganda (CNN Winter Warning, Western Press on China Parade): Операция Z (RF source) amplifies a CNN report warning of a "very difficult winter" for Ukraine, aiming to depress UAF morale. Два майора (RF source) selectively presents Western press reactions to a "military parade in Beijing," framing Western concerns as "agitation." (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Операция Z, Два майора)
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
Black Sea Oil Spill: The previous report of a significant oil spill in the Black Sea moving towards occupied Crimea remains valid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Winter Preparation: RF is already actively projecting the narrative of a "very difficult winter" for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
RF:
Air/Missile Assets: Continued use of Shahed-type UAVs, with UAF inspecting downed examples for adaptation. Demonstrated capacity for deep strikes, although no new specific strikes reported in this window. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Ground Forces: Strong offensive focus on Kupyansk, with claims of central city control. Persistent pressure on the Sieversk axis. Visible logistical challenges for specific units (UAV detachment requesting generators/radios). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
C2/Intelligence: Coordinated deep strike and ground operations continue. RF IO is highly active, consolidating anti-Western narratives and promoting RF resilience, while also addressing internal security issues (scams). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UAF:
Air Defense: Active in intercepting and analyzing RF UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Ground Forces: Effective in drone-based counter-battery (Grad destruction). Maintaining defensive posture under intense pressure in key sectors like Kupyansk and Sieversk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Information Environment: Actively engaging in diplomatic efforts for support, implementing internal reforms, and countering RF narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
Sustained Offensive Ground Operations (Kupyansk, Sieversk): RF demonstrates the ability to concentrate forces and achieve localized gains, particularly in urban environments like Kupyansk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Adaptive Drone Warfare: RF continues to employ Shahed-type UAVs, with UAF analysis indicating potential modifications or adaptations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Extensive Information Warfare and Diplomatic Outreach: RF is capable of rapidly deploying diverse narrative campaigns (economic resilience, multi-polar world, anti-Western rhetoric) and actively conducting diplomatic engagements (Congo meeting) to counter Western influence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Internal Mobilization (Fundraising): While some units face logistical challenges, the ability to fundraise through public channels demonstrates an internal mobilization capability for specific needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Intentions:
Strategic Objective: Degrade Ukrainian Warfighting Capacity, Break National Resilience, and Undermine Western Support.
Achieve Operational Success in Donbas & Kharkiv Oblasts: RF intends to achieve significant ground gains, particularly in Kupyansk to secure supply lines and in Sieversk for a strategic breakthrough. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Degrade UAF Air Defense & Critical Infrastructure: RF will continue to use multi-domain strikes (drones, missiles, KABs) to target UAF air defense assets and critical infrastructure, aiming to erode IAMD capabilities and civilian morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Consolidate Anti-Western Bloc & Project Strength: RF seeks to deepen strategic cooperation with non-Western nations and project an image of global influence, while reinforcing domestic support through propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Information Dominance & Undermining Ukrainian Leadership: RF aims to control narratives by amplifying UAF vulnerabilities (winter, supply issues), fabricating UAF misdeeds, promoting its military effectiveness and diplomatic successes, and sowing discord within Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Courses of Action (COAs):
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action):
RF will continue to consolidate control in Kupyansk and likely leverage this position to increase pressure on nearby UAF defensive lines, potentially expanding their operational zone in Kharkiv Oblast. Intensified offensive operations on the Sieversk axis to achieve an operational encirclement will continue. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
RF will conduct sustained, medium-volume drone attacks (e.g., Shaheds) targeting critical infrastructure, logistics hubs, and military installations across Ukraine, including areas previously targeted (Zaporizhzhia, Lutsk). UAF will continue to observe and adapt to any technical changes in RF UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
RF Information Operations will heavily amplify claims of successful ground gains in Kupyansk and Sieversk, project RF's global diplomatic influence (Africa, China), and continue to leverage narratives about Ukraine's impending "difficult winter." Expect continued promotion of Russia's economic resilience (e.g., import substitution) and robust anti-Western rhetoric. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action):
RF achieves a rapid and decisive breakthrough and consolidation in Kupyansk, followed by a coordinated, large-scale offensive push deeper into Kharkiv Oblast, aiming to establish a significant "buffer zone" or threaten key UAF logistics nodes. This could be accompanied by a successful operational encirclement of UAF forces in Sieversk, leading to a dual front collapse. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
RF, leveraging new DPRK munitions and refined drone tactics, conducts an even more devastating and concentrated strategic missile and drone strike designed to cause systemic, multi-sector failure of Ukrainian critical infrastructure across multiple major regions simultaneously, including a focus on systematically degrading UAF air defense and early warning radars. This could target several railway hubs, energy generation/distribution nodes, C2 facilities, and military-industrial targets with greater accuracy and coordination, aiming for a prolonged, multi-day disruption. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:
Resilience under Pressure: UAF air defense continues to operate under intense pressure, actively intercepting and analyzing RF UAVs. Ground forces are actively defending, demonstrating tactical successes in counter-battery warfare and maintaining positions despite intense RF pressure in key sectors. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Strategic Adaptability: Effective drone-based counter-battery operations and the ongoing analysis of RF UAVs demonstrate UAF's continued ability to conduct effective counter-operations and adapt to RF tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Proactive Resilience Measures: Ukraine continues to engage diplomatically for international support (Zelenskyy in Denmark) and pursue internal reforms (virtual assets bill, Diia booking system), demonstrating resilience and forward-looking governance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:
Successes:
Destruction of RF MLRS "Grad": Confirmed successful FPV drone strike against an RF BM-21 "Grad" MLRS, causing a large secondary explosion and crew casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Downed Shahed Analysis: Ongoing UAF efforts to analyze downed RF Shahed-type UAVs for intelligence on modifications and capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Liberation of Udachne: A confirmed tactical gain on the Pokrovsk axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Repelling RF Assaults (Kursk/Sumy): Successful defense against 8 RF army assaults in border regions (previous report). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Setbacks:
RF Claims Control of Kupyansk Center: If confirmed, this represents a significant RF tactical advance and a setback for UAF in a critical urban area, potentially threatening supply lines or requiring UAF redeployments. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - based on RF reporting, requires UAF confirmation)
Sustained RF Deep Strike Pressure: The ongoing use of drones (Shaheds) and the inspection of downed examples indicate the persistent threat to UAF air defenses and critical infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Intense Pressure on Sieversk Axis: RF efforts to encircle UAF forces in Sieversk pose a critical threat, with heavy clashes reported. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Resource Requirements and Constraints:
Urgent Air Defense Upgrade, Munitions, and EW (CRITICAL): The persistent, high-volume, and adaptive nature of RF multi-domain attacks (including potentially modified drones) necessitates immediate and sustained provision of advanced air defense systems (including SHORAD), EW capabilities, and interceptor munitions. Immediate procurement/replacement of long-range air defense radars (if the P-18 loss is confirmed) and enhanced training for counter-drone tactics are paramount. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
ISR and Counter-Intelligence Support (Elevated Importance): Enhanced ISR capabilities are required to quickly identify and neutralize RF drone command and control, particularly against any new or modified UAV variants. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Frontline Reinforcements and Fire Support (Kupyansk, Sieversk): Given RF claims in Kupyansk and the intense pressure on Sieversk, immediate and sustained provision of artillery, anti-tank systems, and tactical reserves is critical to hold defensive lines and prevent further RF advances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Coastal Defense Modernization: The observed RF naval landing attempts (Tendrivska Spit) highlight the ongoing need for modern coastal surveillance and interdiction assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Medical and SAR Resources: Ongoing needs for personnel, equipment, and medical supplies to respond to civilian casualties and damaged infrastructure from deep strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:
RF Narrative:
Military Success & Western Weakness/Hostility: Claims of controlling Kupyansk center aim to project RF ground force effectiveness. Amplifying CNN's "difficult winter" warning attempts to demoralize. Presenting Western media reactions to China's parade as "agitation" aims to show Western paranoia. Maria Zakharova's rhetoric framing Russia-China as a bulwark against Western "dictatorship" consolidates an anti-Western narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Internal Cohesion & Patriotism/Resilience: "Victory over Japan" parades and import substitution reports are designed to bolster domestic support and project economic strength. The anti-scam campaign indicates efforts to maintain internal stability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Resource Challenges (Subtle Admission): The fundraising appeal by an RF UAV detachment for generators and radios, while likely intended to showcase patriotism, inadvertently reveals logistical and supply chain weaknesses. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UAF Counter-Narrative:
Highlighting RF Aggression and Civilian Harm: The water queue in Donetsk and the downed Shahed image effectively demonstrate the impact of RF aggression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Demonstrating UAF Effectiveness and Resilience: Reporting on the destruction of RF "Grad" MLRS and President Zelenskyy's continued diplomatic engagements reinforces UAF's combat effectiveness and international standing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Showcasing International Support and Democratic Values: UK sanctions and Zelenskyy's visit to Denmark demonstrate continued international pressure on RF and support for Ukraine. The virtual assets bill and Diia booking system highlight Ukraine's commitment to modernization and effective governance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:
Ukrainian Public: RF claims in Kupyansk will be a concern. The humanitarian situation in Donetsk (water queues) is a stark reminder of the conflict's toll. However, UAF tactical successes (Grad destruction) and visible international support (Zelenskyy in Denmark, UK sanctions) will help maintain morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
RF Public: Extensive coverage reinforcing military successes (Kupyansk), dismissing Western sanctions, and promoting nationalistic events will aim to maintain public support for the war. The internal fundraising appeal suggests some public awareness of military resource needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
International Support and Diplomatic Developments:
Continued Western Pressure and Sanctions: UK's expanded sanctions on Russian entities are part of the ongoing international effort to exert pressure on Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UAF Diplomatic Outreach: President Zelenskyy's visit to Denmark underscores Ukraine's active and successful diplomatic engagement to secure continued international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
RF Diplomatic Outreach (Africa): Putin's meeting with Congo's leader signals RF's efforts to expand its diplomatic and economic influence, particularly in Africa, to counter Western isolation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)
Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):
Consolidation in Kupyansk and Continued Multi-Axis Ground Pressure: RF will focus on consolidating its claimed control over central Kupyansk and establishing strong defensive/offensive positions to secure this gain. Concurrently, intensified offensive pressure on the Sieversk axis to achieve operational encirclement will persist. Significant pressure will be maintained on Vremivka, Lyman, and Pokrovsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Sustained Drone Warfare with Potential Adaptive Tactics: RF will likely continue medium-to-high volume drone attacks (Shahed-type) targeting critical infrastructure, logistics, and military assets, adapting tactics based on UAF interception capabilities. UAF will remain vigilant for any observed modifications to RF UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Aggressive IO on Kupyansk & Anti-Western Narratives: RF IO will heavily amplify claims of successful ground gains in Kupyansk and progress in Sieversk. Messaging will continue to promote Russia's diplomatic influence and economic resilience (import substitution) while relentlessly pushing anti-Western rhetoric. Expect narratives to focus on the alleged "difficult winter" for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):
Rapid Breakthrough in Kupyansk Followed by Deeper Push into Kharkiv: RF leverages its claimed control of Kupyansk center to rapidly achieve a broader operational breakthrough and consolidate a significant bridgehead, enabling a large-scale offensive push deeper into Kharkiv Oblast. This could threaten key UAF logistics nodes and require significant UAF redeployments. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Systemic Air Defense Degradation & Strategic Infrastructure Collapse (Leveraging DPRK Assets): RF launches an even larger and more sophisticated coordinated missile and drone attack, specifically focusing on overwhelming and systematically degrading UAF air defense capabilities (including long-range radars and interceptor stockpiles) prior to or concurrently with a strategic strike designed to cause systemic, multi-sector failure of Ukrainian critical infrastructure across multiple major regions simultaneously. This could integrate newly supplied DPRK munitions or refined drone tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Coordinated Hybrid Escalation in Border Regions: RF executes a coordinated, large-scale hybrid operation in the Kursk/Sumy border regions, combining ground incursions with intensified drone/artillery strikes and aggressive information operations. This could aim to draw significant UAF resources away from critical Donbas fronts or create a new, destabilizing front. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:
Immediate (0-12 hours): Expect continued intense ground combat around Kupyansk and Sieversk. UAF forces will be focused on holding defensive lines, assessing RF claims in Kupyansk, and responding to ongoing drone threats. Immediate decisions on reinforcing specific Kupyansk sectors and allocating counter-battery fires will be critical. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Short Term (12-48 hours): RF will likely attempt to consolidate gains in Kupyansk and sustain pressure on Sieversk. UAF will need to continue active defense, analyze RF drone fragments for intelligence, and leverage international support. Diplomatic efforts by President Zelenskyy in Denmark will be crucial for securing future aid and maintaining political momentum. Proactive counter-IO regarding RF claims and humanitarian situations will be vital. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
Verify and Counter RF Gains in Kupyansk: Immediately task all-source ISR to definitively confirm the extent of RF control in Kupyansk. If confirmed, rapidly deploy tactical reserves, reallocate fire support, and conduct focused counter-attacks to prevent RF consolidation and further advances. Prioritize target packages for RF C2, logistics, and troop concentrations in the Kupyansk sector.
Reinforce and Fortify Sieversk Axis Defenses: Maintain an urgent, ongoing assessment of the RF encirclement attempt in Sieversk. Immediately commit necessary tactical reserves, provide robust and sustained fire support (artillery, HIMARS), and fortify defensive lines with emphasis on prepared positions to prevent encirclement. Pre-position contingency plans for either a successful defense or a tactical withdrawal, ensuring routes and logistics are secured.
Accelerate Air Defense Modernization and Munition Resupply: Conduct an immediate, comprehensive review of air defense dispositions, prioritizing systems to protect critical infrastructure and population centers across all affected oblasts, with an increased emphasis on those threatened by precision deep strikes against air defense assets. Intensify coordination with international partners for urgent, massive replenishment of air defense interceptors, recognizing the heightened expenditure against evolving and potentially DPRK-supplied threats. Prioritize training for newly introduced EW and SHORAD systems, and rapid analysis/counter-measures for adapted RF drones.
Leverage Humanitarian Situation for International Support: Task STRATCOM and diplomatic channels to widely disseminate information and visuals of the humanitarian crisis in occupied territories (e.g., water queues in Donetsk) to underscore RF aggression and catalyze increased international humanitarian aid and political pressure on Russia.
Robust Counter-Propaganda and Strategic Communications (Kupyansk, Winter Narrative): Proactively disseminate verified information on RF's attacks and high UAF interception rates. Immediately develop and widely disseminate messaging to address RF claims of gains in Kupyansk, providing factual context and highlighting UAF resilience. Counter RF narratives regarding an "inevitable difficult winter" for Ukraine by showcasing preparedness and international support.
High-Priority Intelligence Collection on RF Logistics and Drone Modifications:Elevate intelligence collection requirements on the logistical and supply chain weaknesses of RF units, particularly those observed requiring public fundraising (e.g., UAV detachments). Concurrently, maintain high-priority collection and technical analysis on any modifications or new components identified in downed RF drones (e.g., Shahed-type) to anticipate evolving threats and develop counter-measures.
