OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: The Russian Federation (RF) deep strike campaign against Ukraine continues its geographic expansion and high tempo, with cruise missiles now confirmed to be targeting and impacting far western regions, specifically Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast. Ground combat remains intense on the Sieversk axis, where RF forces are attempting an encirclement, and near Shandrigolovo. UAF air defense is highly engaged across a wide area.
Air-Missile Strikes (Updated - Critical Extension to Western Oblasts):
Multiple groups of Kalibr cruise missiles previously tracked from Vinnytsia Oblast have continued their trajectory. New reports confirm missiles flying from Vinnytsia into Khmelnytskyi Oblast, specifically towards Starokostiantyniv and the city of Khmelnytskyi, where explosions have been heard. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Subsequently, cruise missiles from Khmelnytskyi Oblast were tracked towards Ternopil Oblast, and from Ternopil Oblast, a final group was tracked towards Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, confirming a continued westward trajectory and threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Impacts: Explosions confirmed in Khmelnytskyi and Kalush (Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
'Николаевский Ванёк' reports "preliminarily minus" on missiles, suggesting successful interceptions. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - lacks BDA, but indicative of engagement success).
Ground Operations (Updated):
Shandrigolovo (DNR - Sieversk Direction): RF military expert Andrei Marochko reports that RF forces have commenced engagements for Derilovo and Novoselivka, two settlements near Shandrigolovo. This indicates continued RF pressure in the Sieversk direction, consistent with encirclement efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Sieversk Direction (DNR): RF claims of "liberation" of Fedorivka and intent to encircle UAF forces in Sieversk remain highly relevant. Video evidence shows heavy fighting involving RF 3rd Shock Army. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Pokrovsk Direction (Donetsk Oblast): UAF forces successfully liberated Udachne (previous report, still relevant). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Vovchansk Direction (Kharkiv Oblast): UAF border guards destroyed an RF TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" with a drone strike (previous report, still relevant). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
RF Territory:
Volgograd Airport: Restrictions have been lifted at Volgograd Airport, indicating a temporary disruption (likely due to UAV activity) has concluded. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Explosions and sirens reported in Anapa, Krasnodar Krai, and Belaya Kalitva, Rostov Oblast, and shelling in Novaya Tavolzhanka, Belgorod region (previous reporting, still relevant). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
No significant changes from previous report. Magnetic storm, rain forecast, dust in Kyiv, Black Sea oil spill, fire danger in Kharkiv, and heatwave continue to be relevant. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
RF:
Air/Missile Assets: Actively employing Shahed UAVs and Kalibr cruise missiles. Strategic bombers (Tu-95MS, Tu-160) airborne continue launch maneuvers. RF is actively promoting domestic aircraft production (Il-114, Baikal, Ladoga, Osvei), signaling a long-term goal for aviation self-sufficiency amidst sanctions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Ground Forces: Main effort on Sieversk for encirclement, with new reports of engagements near Shandrigolovo (Derilovo, Novoselivka). Sustained offensive pressure in Pokrovsk, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia directions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Naval Assets: One missile carrier with 8 Kalibrs deployed to Black Sea (previous report, still relevant). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Air Defense: Claims of shooting down 27 UAF UAVs over RF regions (previous report, still relevant). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UAF:
Air Defense: Highly engaged, actively responding to multiple waves of RF drones and missiles across the country, especially in Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Ground Forces: Holding defensive lines and conducting localized offensive operations (Udachne). Actively engaging RF forces near Shandrigolovo. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Drone Operations: Successful destruction of RF TOS-1A in Vovchansk (previous report, still relevant). Deep strike activity into RF territory (previous report, still relevant). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
Expanded Deep Strike Arsenal: Demonstrated ability to launch simultaneous massed Shahed UAV and Kalibr cruise missile strikes with expanded reach deep into western Ukraine (Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast). Strategic bomber launches (Tu-95MS, Tu-160) from Engels and Olenya airfields indicate ongoing capability for widespread, large-scale missile attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Sustained Ground Offensives: Capacity to maintain high-intensity offensive operations on multiple axes (Sieversk, Pokrovsk) with new engagements reported near Shandrigolovo, aiming for operational encirclement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Industrial Mobilization (Aviation): Promoting domestic aircraft production (Il-114, Baikal, Ladoga, Osvei) demonstrates a long-term strategic capability to reduce reliance on foreign components, particularly relevant for military-industrial complex sustainment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Intentions:
Strategic Objective: Achieve "Special Military Operation" Goals Through Persistent Pressure and Erosion of Ukrainian Capacity, Reject Compromise, Expand Influence, and Achieve Operational Encirclement in Sieversk, Degrading UAF Communication and Infrastructure:
Decisive Action in Sieversk/Shandrigolovo: RF's immediate and high-priority intent is to complete the encirclement of UAF forces in Sieversk and make localized gains around Shandrigolovo, which would be significant operational victories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Sustained and Expanded Deep Strike Campaign: Intent to continue and escalate massed drone and missile attacks on critical infrastructure (energy, transport), military targets, and civilian areas across Ukraine, now definitively including western regions such as Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, to degrade UAF's warfighting capacity and civilian resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Disruption of UAF Logistics: Targeting railway infrastructure and other supply lines (previous report, still relevant). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Courses of Action (COAs):
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action):
RF will continue to focus offensive efforts on the Sieversk axis, including engagements near Shandrigolovo (Derilovo, Novoselivka), attempting to consolidate the claimed capture of Fedorivka and complete the operational encirclement of UAF forces. This will involve high-intensity assaults supported by artillery, drones, and tactical air. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
RF will continue the massed, multi-domain (drone and missile) deep strike campaign against civilian and military infrastructure across central and western Ukraine, specifically targeting critical energy and transportation nodes, aiming to overwhelm UAF air defenses and cause widespread disruption. Expect continued strikes on Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia, and Kyiv Oblasts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
RF Information Operations will heavily amplify claimed successes in Sieversk/Shandrigolovo and emphasize civilian casualties from UAF actions in RF border regions, while downplaying their own losses and the impact of the deep strike campaign on Ukrainian civilians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action):
RF achieves a successful operational encirclement of UAF forces in Sieversk, leading to a significant loss of UAF personnel and equipment, and opening a new axis for further RF advances deeper into Donetsk Oblast, potentially towards Sloviansk. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
RF conducts an unprecedented, coordinated strategic missile and drone strike using a combination of cruise missiles (Kalibr, Kh-101/555 from strategic bombers) and a large swarm of Shahed UAVs, targeting multiple critical nodes (e.g., power grids, railway hubs, key C2 centers, military industrial facilities) simultaneously across central and western Ukraine, specifically including major population centers, with the intent to cause systemic collapse of infrastructure and widespread panic. The current widespread strikes on western Ukraine indicate a high probability of this MDCOA escalating in scale and intensity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:
Active Air Defense: UAF air defense remains highly engaged and effective, but is now significantly stretched due to the expanded geographical scope of RF attacks into western oblasts. The sheer volume and widespread nature of RF's current multi-domain air assault will severely test PPO capabilities and munition reserves across an even wider geographical area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Defensive Operations (East): UAF forces are actively defending against RF assaults across multiple sectors, including Sieversk and Pokrovsk. Readiness is high, but sustained pressure requires constant resupply and reinforcement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:
Successes:
Liberation of Udachne, Donetsk Oblast (previous report, still relevant). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Destruction of RF TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" in Vovchansk direction (previous report, still relevant). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Reported "minus" on Kalibrs by 'Николаевский Ванёк' suggests successful interceptions in the current wave. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - lacks BDA, but indicative of engagement success).
Setbacks:
Sustained RF missile and drone strikes causing damage and casualties in Kyiv, Vyshhorod, Znamianka, Lviv, Khmelnytskyi, Kalush (Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast), with damage to railway infrastructure in Kirovohrad Oblast, injuring 4 railway workers (previous report, still relevant). The extension of strikes to Khmelnytskyi and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts represents a significant setback in terms of RF's ability to project power across the entire country. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Increased pressure on the Sieversk axis, with RF claiming encirclement after taking Fedorivka and new engagements reported near Shandrigolovo. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Resource Requirements and Constraints:
Air Defense Munitions: The high tempo and expanded geographical range of RF air attacks will rapidly deplete UAF air defense munition stockpiles across an even wider area. Urgent resupply is critical. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Advanced IAMD Systems: Continued need for HIMARS, Patriot, and other advanced air defense systems to counter the expanding multi-domain RF strike capabilities, particularly for the western regions now under threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:
RF Narrative:
TASS reports of RF forces engaging Derilovo and Novoselivka near Shandrigolovo are used to project continued ground advances in the Donbas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
TASS promoting domestic aircraft production (Il-114, Baikal, Ladoga, Osvei) serves to project industrial resilience and self-sufficiency, counteracting sanctions narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
"Рыбарь" releasing "Chronicle of the SMO for Sep 1-2" (03:31:20Z) is a consistent effort to shape the narrative of RF military operations and successes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
"Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" with "Good morning, Airborne brotherhood!" (03:31:01Z) aims to boost military morale. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UAF Counter-Narrative:
Air Force reports and 'Николаевский Ванёк' reporting missile trajectories and "minus" on missiles aim to provide real-time updates and highlight UAF air defense efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
RBC-Ukraine reporting explosions in Khmelnytskyi keeps the public informed about RF aggression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:
Ukrainian Public: Heightened alarm due to widespread air raid alerts and confirmed impacts in previously less-affected western regions. This likely increases public concern about the reach of RF strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
International Support and Diplomatic Developments:
No significant new developments in this reporting period. The TASS report on aircraft production is an internal RF message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)
Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):
Sustained and Intensified Multi-Domain Strikes (Expanded Geographical Scope): RF will continue the current large-scale, coordinated drone and missile campaign, possibly in waves, targeting critical infrastructure (energy, transport, military-industrial complex) across central, western, and southern Ukraine. Expect continued strikes on Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, and Kyiv Oblasts, aiming to deplete UAF air defense munitions, disrupt logistics, and exert psychological pressure across a wider swathe of Ukraine. The current waves may be followed by new waves of UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Sieversk/Shandrigolovo Offensive: RF will press its offensive on the Sieversk axis, including continued engagements for Derilovo and Novoselivka near Shandrigolovo, attempting to complete the encirclement of UAF forces in the sector, committing additional ground and fire support assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Information Offensive: RF IO will intensify, focusing on portraying UAF as collapsing in Sieversk/Shandrigolovo, highlighting alleged UAF war crimes, and amplifying any statements from international actors that appear to weaken Western resolve or question support for Ukraine. RF will likely downplay the impact of UAF deep strikes on RF assets/territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):
Successful Sieversk Encirclement: RF achieves an operational encirclement of UAF forces in Sieversk, resulting in significant UAF casualties, equipment losses, and a major strategic setback for Ukraine in the Donbas. This could create a breach for further RF advances. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
Overwhelming Strategic Strike (Systemic Failure Aim): RF launches an even larger and more complex coordinated missile and drone attack designed to cause systemic failure of a major Ukrainian critical infrastructure sector (e.g., a complete regional power grid collapse or sustained disruption of major railway lines for days), potentially targeting multiple nodes within a single system simultaneously across central and western Ukraine. The current strikes into Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast indicate RF's increasing willingness and capability to target deeper into western Ukraine, elevating the risk of this MDCOA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:
Immediate (0-12 hours): Expect continued intense air raid alarms and strikes as the current missile and drone waves play out across western, central, and northern Ukraine. UAF air defense will be at maximum alert and engagement. RF ground forces will likely maintain high pressure on Sieversk and Shandrigolovo. Decisions on redeploying UAF air defense assets or committing reserves for Sieversk will be critical. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Short Term (12-24 hours): RF will likely assess the effectiveness of the current deep strikes and may prepare follow-on waves, potentially from strategic bombers. Ground combat on the Sieversk axis will remain fierce. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
Prioritize and Redistribute Air Defense Assets (Extreme Western Focus): Urgently re-evaluate current air defense dispositions. Given confirmed strikes in Ivano-Frankivsk and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts, and ongoing threats to western/central regions, prioritize the rapid deployment or redeployment of mobile IAMD systems (e.g., NASAMS, Patriot) to protect critical infrastructure and population centers in these newly targeted areas, while maintaining sufficient coverage for Kyiv.
Urgent Air Defense Munition Resupply (Expanded Scope): Immediately intensify coordination with international partners for urgent replenishment of air defense interceptors, especially for Patriot, NASAMS, and other advanced systems, given the rapid expenditure during sustained and geographically expanded attacks across the entire country.
Reinforce Sieversk/Shandrigolovo Defense (Critical Assessment): Based on real-time ISR, conduct a critical assessment of the RF encirclement attempt in Sieversk and the new engagements near Shandrigolovo. If confirmed as imminent or successful, commit necessary tactical reserves and provide robust, sustained fire support to prevent a collapse of the UAF defensive line and facilitate potential exfiltration routes.
Enhance Public Warning and Shelter Protocols (Western Oblasts): Given the expanded reach of RF missile strikes, ensure that public warning systems and access to protective shelters in Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, and Vinnytsia Oblasts are fully operational and widely communicated.
Counter-Propaganda and Narrative Control (Sieversk/Western Strikes): Proactively disseminate verified information on RF's indiscriminate attacks on civilians and infrastructure in western Ukraine, emphasizing the expansion of RF aggression. Actively counter RF disinformation campaigns, particularly those amplifying claimed successes in Sieversk/Shandrigolovo or attempting to justify these expanded strikes.
