Situation Report

RPTG_UNIT: G2 ANALYST, UAF HIGH COMMAND // PREP_BY: Senior Military Intelligence Analyst, Eastern European Warfare Desk TIME: 021203Z SEP 25

SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - 021200Z SEP 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: RF deep strike campaign against Ukraine continues at a high tempo, with an intensified focus on the capital region (Kyiv Oblast). Drone threats targeted Kyiv, Vasylkiv, Borova, Bila Tserkva, and a new threat to Sumy district, with active air defense engagement reported over the Left Bank and central Kyiv. Drone debris from a downed UAV impacted a kindergarten in Dniprovskyi district, Kyiv, which was fortunately closed for repairs. UAVs were reported moving from Kyiv Oblast to Zhytomyr Oblast, then to the border of Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblast, with later groups from Chernihiv Oblast moving towards Kyiv Oblast. UAF Air Force reports UAVs moving to Zhytomyr/Ozerne. A new threat of strike UAVs from the northeast is reported for Chernihiv Oblast. RF continues KAB strikes on Sumy Oblast and Donbas region. Visually confirmed severe RF fuel shortages in occupied Luhansk persist, representing a critical logistical vulnerability. Ukrainian Air Force (UAF) counter-strike activity is confirmed, with damage to two multi-story buildings and four injured in Rostov-on-Don following UAF drone strikes. RF reports airstrikes on Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, and increased attacks on military targets, and claims destruction of UAF weapons depots in Pokrovske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF 55th Separate Artillery Brigade reports successful detection and destruction of enemy UAV launch points. UAF General Staff reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Khliborob (Sumy region), Bilohirya, and Novoselivka (Zaporizhzhia region). UAF General Staff also reports clashes near Hlyboke, Vovchansk, and towards Nova Kruhlyakivka, Novoplatonivka in South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) direction. Clashes near Kupyansk, Petropavlivka, and Stepova Novoselivka in Kupyansk direction. Clashes near Kolodyazi, Zarichne, and towards Karpivka, Shandryholove, Yampil, Dronivka, and Serebryanka in Lyman direction. Clashes near Hryhorivka and towards Serebryanka, Vyyimka in Sieversk direction. Clashes near Chasiv Yar and towards Minkivka, Mykolayivka, Stupochky in Kramatorsk direction. Clashes near Scherbynivka and towards Pleschiyivka, Nelipivka, Rusyn Yar, Poltavka in Toretsk direction. Clashes near Volodymyrivka, Zapovidne, Novoekonomichne, Myrolubivka, Lysivka, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Dachne, towards Balahan, Promin, Myrnohrad, Rodynske, Pokrovsk in Pokrovsk direction. Clashes near Zelenyy Hay, Tolstoy, Piddubne, Myrne, Perebudiv, Maliyivka, Shevchenko and towards Filiya, Ivanivka, Iskra, Oleksandrohrad, Novoselivka, Komyshuvakha in Novopavlivka direction. Clashes near Plavni in Orikhiv direction. UAF forces repelled 3 RF assaults in Kherson direction and 11 RF assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. Fast-moving target reported over Sumy Oblast. UAV reported course on Honcharivske. Satellite images show results of destruction of pumping stations at Unecha oil pumping station (NPS). RF claims new encirclement of UAF 80th Airborne Assault Brigade elements near Sadky in Sumy Oblast. RF claims UAF is unsuccessfully attempting counter-attacks west of Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk), which remains contested. RF also claims active advances near Kozacha Lopan in Kharkiv Oblast, with less than 7km remaining to the settlement, and claims to have dislodged a UAF grouping in Moskovka, Kharkiv Oblast, destroying several Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage groups. RF Ministry of Defense (MoD) claims Grad MLRS crews of the Sever Group eliminated AFU camouflaged positions and manpower clusters in Kharkiv direction. UAF forces have successfully cleared Udachne in Donetsk Oblast and raised the flag, indicating a significant localized gain on the Pokrovsk direction. RF MoD claims to have "liberated" Fedorivka in DNR. UAF's 93rd Brigade "Kholodny Yar" Alter Ego company reports successful destruction of a logistics bridge and shelter used by RF with explosive and FPV drones. SBU exposes an FSB agent group that was adjusting Russian fire on Kherson defenders. Zaporizhzhia Oblast prepares for winter: 80% of work already completed. Finland's NATO Land Forces Headquarters has reportedly begun operations. A significant oil spill has occurred in the Black Sea, moving towards Crimea. A trilateral summit involving Russia, China, and Mongolia is underway, with strong emphasis on mutual relations and a shared anti-Western stance, including new energy agreements. Putin and Xi Jinping were observed walking in Zhongnanhai. China will introduce a 30-day visa-free regime for Russian citizens with ordinary passports from September 15th. RF (TASS) reports Peskov stated that a meeting between Putin and Kim Jong Un would be discussed after Kim's arrival in Beijing tonight. RF (TASS) showcased strike and reconnaissance UAVs produced in the Far East. RF channels are heavily promoting the 144th Motorized Rifle Division's advances in the Krasnolimansk direction. RF (FSB/Военкор Котенок, ASTRA) reports a thwarted terrorist attack on a defense industrial complex (OPK) in Izhevsk by three teenagers, allegedly tasked by Ukrainian special services. RF (TASS) reports two people died in Kursk border area after detonating on a minefield, with Военкор Котенок confirming these as civilians. Poland will not send any more weapons to Ukraine. Alex Parker Returns reports Erdogan stated Putin and Zelensky are not ready for a meeting. Poland to sign weapons deals with Ukraine. TASS reports Pakistan is "resolutely determined" to strengthen ties with Russia. TASS reports former head of RF Armed Forces communication planning department Ogloblin, sentenced for bribery, applied to participate in the "special operation" over 10 times but was rejected. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports villagers helped an ex-serviceman send children to school. Александр Вилкул showcases a new security and patriotic education lyceum in Kryvyi Rih. Рыбарь posts a video about US Navy and Air Force operations in South America, focusing on drug interdiction. Alex Parker Returns amplifies an old Facebook post from a Ukrainian soldier claiming Bakhmut was not encircled. ТАСС reports Qatar supports a potential Russia-Ukraine summit but is not organizing it. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports high fire danger in Kharkiv Oblast. Mash на Донбассе reports a "fake head" of the Urzuf administration was extorting money and tried to bribe investigators. Рыбарь posts a graphic titled "Indian-American War". ASTRA reports a suspected war criminal was appointed minister. Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны reports NATO paid $2 billion for US weapons to Ukraine. ТАСС reports five families from Russia and five from Ukraine will reunite with their relatives. Colonelcassad shares a video of crowdfunding for a UAZ van. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video of children on a swing in occupied Melitopol. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations: No significant changes to previously reported weather conditions (ongoing magnetic storm, precipitation expected, poor air quality in Kyiv). A new development is an oil spill in the Black Sea, moving towards Crimea. Oleg Sinegubov, Governor of Kharkiv Oblast, reports a high fire danger in the region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

  • RF: Conducting multi-domain deep strikes on Kyiv Oblast (Brovary district, and new threats to Kyiv, Vasylkiv, Borova, Bila Tserkva, and active air defense engagement on Left Bank and over central Kyiv, with drone debris in Dniprovskyi district, impacting a kindergarten), with drones over central Kyiv. Intelligence monitors suggest reconnaissance drones probing PPO positions for future massed strikes. UAVs are active from Kyiv Oblast to Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, and Chernihiv Oblasts, with a specific UAV course reported towards Zhytomyr/Ozerne. NEW: Threat of strike UAVs from the northeast for Chernihiv Oblast. NEW: UAV, likely reconnaissance, on western Sumy Oblast, with UAF engaging. NEW: Activity of enemy tactical aviation on the northern direction. RF is actively showcasing new strike and reconnaissance UAVs from the Far East and promoting the UAVheli SKY-TRUCK, an unmanned helicopter with significant payload and range capabilities. RF continues KAB employment against Sumy Oblast and Donbas region. RF making aggressive ground claims: new claims of encircling UAF 80th Airborne Assault Brigade elements near Sadky in Sumy Oblast; claims of active advances near Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast (less than 7km to settlement), and claims to have dislodged UAF in Moskovka, Kharkiv Oblast, and destroying several Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage groups. RF MoD claims Grad MLRS crews of the Sever Group eliminated AFU camouflaged positions and manpower clusters in Kharkiv direction. RF MoD claims to have "liberated" Fedorivka in DNR. RF sources (Два майора) post video of artillery striking UAF trench lines on the Zaporizhzhia front. Poddubny reports intense aerial traffic over the Dnipropetrovsk border region, with "Supercams," "Lancets," and FPV drones actively targeting Ukrainian artillery positions and supply vehicles. RF claims destruction of UAF weapons depots in Pokrovske, Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast. RF internal security reports a foiled terrorist attack by teenagers on a defense industrial complex (OPK) in Izhevsk. RF IO channels highlight the Putin-Xi Jinping meeting, including a walk in Zhongnanhai, and the signing of a memorandum for the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline, emphasizing a "gas alliance," and now 22 documents on cooperation. RF (TASS) reports Peskov stated that a meeting between Putin and Kim Jong Un would be discussed after Kim's arrival in Beijing tonight. RF (ASTRA, Новости Москвы, ТАСС) reports China will introduce a 30-day visa-free regime for Russian citizens from September 15th, leading to increased interest. RF has recognized the British Institute of Defense Studies (RUSI) as an "undesirable organization." TASS reports 2 fatalities from a minefield in Kursk border area, with Военкор Котенок confirming these as civilians. ASTRA reports a ban on filming drone attacks in Mari El Republic. Kadyrov_95 claims Akhmat FPV drones destroyed a UAF reactive launcher in Sumy direction. Russian channels (Операция Z) are posting videos, with Kyiv watermarks, claiming "another fail of Ukrainian PVO" in response to drones over Kyiv. Putin met with Slovak PM Fico in Beijing, expressing appreciation for Slovakia's independent foreign policy, and Fico reportedly plans to relay Russia's message to the EU, complained about UAF strikes on "Druzhba" pipeline, and called the EU a "frog at the bottom of a well". Putin claims RF "never attacked" anyone and is ready for cooperation on ZNPP. Putin also claims to have discussed Ukraine's post-conflict security with Trump in Alaska. TASS reports that US NATO allies lack the political will for a quick end to hostilities in Ukraine, specifically that Europe is unwilling to deploy troops there. TASS reports Putin and Kim Jong Un will be together at a parade and reception, and discussions will continue afterwards. Рыбарь reports on a meeting between Putin and Slovak President Robert Fico on the sidelines of the SCO in Beijing, where Putin expressed his perspective on the conflict in Ukraine, stating that Western powers provoked Russia, and highlighting Russia's defensive actions. Два майора reports Putin in China stated Russia tolerated Ukrainian strikes on its energy infrastructure for a long time but has now started to respond seriously.
  • NEW: Russian MoD (MoD Russia) displays photos/video of "Interaction 2025" exercise, showing Russian paratroopers conducting cohesion drills with CSTO CRRF units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Russian sources (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺) highlight the use of dirt bikes for VDV logistics and supply. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Russian sources (Colonelcassad, НгП раZVедка) are amplifying coverage of the Parubiy funeral and the suspect's confession, with Colonelcassad calling the attendees "co-conspirators to bloody massacres," and НгП раZVедка showing a video where the suspect claims "revenge on Ukrainian authorities." Alex Parker Returns continues to exploit the Parubiy murder confession. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ASTRA reports Putin stated "Russia never had, does not have, and will not have the desire to attack anyone" during his meeting with Fico. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Pakistan is "resolutely determined" to strengthen ties with Russia, and Putin stating lowered trade is a "good signal to work". (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports former head of RF Armed Forces communication planning department Ogloblin, sentenced for bribery, applied to participate in the "special operation" over 10 times but was rejected. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports villagers helped an ex-serviceman send children to school. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Рыбарь posts a video about US Navy and Air Force operations in South America, focusing on drug interdiction, with a caption suggesting monitoring of "potential American invasion of Venezuela". (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Alex Parker Returns amplifies an old Facebook post from a Ukrainian soldier claiming Bakhmut was not encircled, likely to highlight perceived UAF propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Qatar supports a potential Russia-Ukraine summit but is not organizing it. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Mash на Донбассе reports a "fake head" of the Urzuf administration was extorting money and tried to bribe investigators, indicating internal corruption issues in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Рыбарь posts a graphic titled "Indian-American War," likely for IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ASTRA reports a suspected war criminal was appointed minister, indicating RF internal political decisions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports five families from Russia and five from Ukraine will reunite with their relatives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad shares a video of crowdfunding for a UAZ van, noting its age and condition, for military use, indicating continued reliance on public support for logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video of children on a swing in occupied Melitopol, with a critical caption. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF: Active in air defense against RF drone attacks in Kyiv Oblast, with confirmed PPO activity over the Left Bank and drones now over central Kyiv, with a confirmed explosion and drone debris falling in Dniprovskyi district, impacting a kindergarten. New threats to Vasylkiv, Borova, and Bila Tserkva, and a new threat to Sumy district. UAF Air Force reports UAVs from Kyiv Oblast moving to Zhytomyr Oblast, then to the border of Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblast, with a new course reported to Zhytomyr/Ozerne. Later, groups of UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast moved towards Kyiv Oblast. Intelligence monitors suggest that drones over Kyiv are reconnaissance "Gerberas" probing PPO positions. Air raid alerts for Kyiv have now been called off. NEW: UAF Air Force reports a threat of strike UAVs from the northeast for Chernihiv Oblast. NEW: UAF Air Force reports an enemy UAV, likely reconnaissance, in western Sumy Oblast, and engaging it. NEW: UAF Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on the northern direction. UAF forces are engaged in defense around Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk) against RF claims of advances and counter-attacks. Civilians are sheltering in Kyiv metro due to air raid alerts. UAF Naval Forces/General Staff are monitoring an RF oil spill in the Black Sea. UAF General Staff provides information on a terrorist case in Odesa handed over to court. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 is conducting a survey for veterans and reports on passenger transportation via international partners and partnership with Fastiv for community strengthening. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a missing soldier from a Dnipro hospital who has been found. UAF General Staff reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Khliborob (Sumy region), Bilohirya, and Novoselivka (Zaporizhzhia region), and ongoing clashes in South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv), Kupyansk, Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv directions. UAF repelled 3 RF assaults in Kherson direction and 11 RF assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. Satellite images show results of destruction of pumping stations at Unecha NPS. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares a photo of a soldier ("Hedgehog") joining UAF under contract. РБК-Україна reports "Rubizh" NGU brigade is fundraising for destroyed property and equipment. STERNENKO posts about an "optical fiber drone" for reconnaissance, and also shares a video about drones for school security, but now states donations are insufficient. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on murder and cruel treatment of civilians during the occupation of Bucha, with new suspicions against RF servicemen and indictments sent to court, and introduces a portal to protect businesses. ASTRA reports 3 injured in Kharkiv Oblast due to shelling. UAF 55th Separate Artillery Brigade (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) posts video of successful detection and destruction of enemy UAV launch points. Kharkiv OTU provides an informational report on the situation in its area of responsibility. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts commendations for Ukrainian Air Force personnel. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Putin admits RF will hit Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and Putin discusses Ukraine's security with Trump. STERNENKO reports a suspect in the Parubiy murder has confessed. РБК-Україна provides video of the suspect in the Parubiy murder confessing to killing his son, claiming self-defense due to the son's involvement with "the opposition" and stating it was a personal revenge against "Ukrainian authorities," denying blackmail from Russia. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports that a company of ground robotic systems from the 93rd Brigade "Kholodny Yar" Alter Ego used an explosive drone and an FPV drone to destroy a bridge used by Russians for logistics, as well as a shelter. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video of the Parubiy suspect confessing, emphasizing his claim of personal revenge and denial of Russian blackmail. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" highlights that "the war continues, but fundraising is stalled!" Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video of a man expressing anger and frustration over military operations, specifically attacks on infrastructure and bridges, using strong language. Офіс Генерального прокурора officially launches the "StopTisk" platform to protect businesses in Ukraine.
  • NEW: SBU (Оперативний ЗСУ) exposes an FSB agent group that was adjusting Russian fire on Kherson defenders, including photos and video. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Zaporizhzhia Oblast (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦) reports 80% completion of winter preparations, including protecting transformer substations and decentralized energy facilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Олександр Вілкул showcases a new security and patriotic education lyceum in Kryvyi Rih. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War) reports meetings with families of the 44th Separate Mechanized Brigade and the 71st Separate Jaeger Brigade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video showing drone footage of an artillery strike on what are presumed to be enemy positions, suggesting RF BDA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Kotsnews posts a video warning against nationalism under the guise of patriotism, with a lawyer explaining how groups incite inter-ethnic conflicts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: РБК-Україна supports a fundraising effort for vehicles for the 153rd Separate Mechanized Brigade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video of a severely injured soldier requesting euthanasia from comrades, highlighting the human cost of conflict and medical evacuation challenges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Стрелков Игорь Иванович shares a video of former Ukrainian President Yanukovych criticizing Ukraine's past EU/NATO aspirations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports on attending a meeting about the "eRecovery" program. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video of Kyiv children holding lessons in the metro, featuring old footage of Poroshenko discussing social welfare, likely RF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Alex Parker Returns and Оперативний ЗСУ report Erdogan stated Putin and Zelensky are not ready for a meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports Qatar supports a potential Russia-Ukraine summit but is not organizing it. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports high fire danger in Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны reports NATO paid $2 billion for US weapons to Ukraine, citing Rutte. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports five families from Russia and five from Ukraine will reunite with their relatives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video of a Ukrainian paratrooper appealing for donations of a DJI Mavic 3 drone for reconnaissance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • External Actors: China is hosting a high-level meeting between Putin and Xi Jinping in Beijing, emphasizing strategic unity and signing a memorandum for the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline, and now 22 cooperation documents. China will introduce a 30-day visa-free regime for Russian citizens with ordinary passports from September 15th, showing increased interest. Finland's NATO Land Forces Headquarters has reportedly begun operations. RF (TASS) reports Peskov stated that a meeting between Putin and Kim Jong Un would be discussed after Kim's arrival in Beijing tonight. RF has recognized the British Institute of Defense Studies (RUSI) as an "undesirable organization." Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны (referencing Le Canard) reports France is preparing its medicine for a "big confrontation" in Europe by March 2026. Janus Putkonen reports on the geopolitical shift towards a multipolar world. Yonhap (via ASTRA) reports 2000 North Korean military personnel have died in Ukraine. Colonelcassad reports Kim Jong Un traveling to Beijing after visiting missile facilities. Alex Parker Returns reports France switching to domestic messenger Tchap. TASS reports Putin met with Slovak PM Fico in Beijing, with Fico planning to convey Russia's message to the EU, and Fico complaining about UAF strikes on "Druzhba" pipeline, and called the EU a "frog at the bottom of a well". TASS reports that US NATO allies lack the political will for a quick end to hostilities in Ukraine, and Europe is unwilling to deploy troops there. TASS reports Putin and Kim Jong Un will be together at a parade and reception, and discussions will continue afterwards. TASS publishes photos from the North Korean newspaper "Rodong Sinmun" dedicating an issue to Kim Jong Un's meeting with families of military personnel who died "liberating Kursk Oblast," an apparent historical revisionism or fabrication.
  • NEW: Russian sources (Воин DV) report the French Ministry of Health has ordered subordinate departments to "prepare for war." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Pakistan "resolutely determined" to strengthen ties with Russia, and Putin stating lowered trade is a "good signal to work". (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Рыбарь posts a video about US Navy and Air Force operations in South America, focusing on drug interdiction, with a caption suggesting monitoring of "potential American invasion of Venezuela". (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Qatar supports a potential Russia-Ukraine summit but is not organizing it. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны reports NATO paid $2 billion for US weapons to Ukraine, citing Rutte. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports five families from Russia and five from Ukraine will reunite with their relatives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Germany and France plan to create a joint missile warning system. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Turkey's President Erdogan, after contact with Putin and Zelensky, states they are "not ready for a meeting". Alex Parker Returns confirms this. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Russia and Turkey tested a mechanism where Gazprom payments for gas will remain in Turkey, to be used for the Akkuyu NPP. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Magnetic Storm: The previously reported strong magnetic storm is ongoing. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Impact Assessment: Continued impact on satellite communications, GPS reliability, and sensitive electronic equipment, affecting both friendly and enemy C2 and ISR capabilities, especially for precision-guided munitions and long-range communications. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Analytical Judgment)
• Precipitation: The forecast for rain at the start of September remains valid. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Impact Assessment: Increased precipitation could degrade ground mobility, especially off-road, affecting logistics and troop movements for both sides. It could also reduce visibility for drone operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Air Quality (Kyiv): Deterioration of air quality due to dust in Kyiv persists. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Impact Assessment: Reduced visibility for urban ISR and potential impact on personnel health. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Analytical Judgment).
• Oil Spill (Black Sea): РБК-Україна reports an RF oil spill in the Black Sea, with a large slick moving towards Crimea. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Impact Assessment: Environmental damage; potential disruption to naval operations (both friendly and enemy) in the affected area, including impact on sensor performance and vessel maintenance; and propaganda opportunities for UAF to highlight RF's environmental negligence. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Analytical Judgment)
• Fire Danger (Kharkiv Oblast): Oleg Sinegubov, Governor of Kharkiv Oblast, reports a high fire danger. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Impact Assessment: Increased risk of uncontrolled fires, especially impacting wooded areas or dry fields, potentially affecting troop concealment, ground mobility, and creating smoke hazards for air operations. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Analytical Judgment)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF:
  • Strategic Deep Strike (Renewed Focus on Kyiv & Broad Threat, with specific targeting, expanded aerial axis, and new threats to Kyiv, Vasylkiv, Borova, Bila Tserkva, and active air defense engagement on Left Bank and over central Kyiv, with drone debris in Dniprovskyi district impacting a kindergarten, and now new threats to Chernihiv and Sumy, new targeting of UAF C2/personnel for Kherson, and use of dirt bikes for tactical logistics, and tactical aviation on Northern direction): РБК-Україна reports active PPO work on the Left Bank of Kyiv, and a confirmed explosion in Kyiv, and now drone debris in Dniprovskyi district. Klychko confirms UAVs over central Kyiv, with the attack lasting almost three hours. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warns of UAVs inbound for Kyiv, Vasylkiv, Borova, Bila Tserkva, and a new threat to Sumy district, and KAB launches into Donbas and Sumy regions. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAVs from Kyiv Oblast to Zhytomyr Oblast, then to the border of Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblast, with a new course to Zhytomyr/Ozerne. Later, groups of UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast moved towards Kyiv Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of a UAV over central Kyiv, possibly attempting low-altitude penetration. Intelligence monitors (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) suggest these are reconnaissance 'Gerbera' drones. TASS showcases strike and reconnaissance UAVs produced in the Far East. Два майора promotes the UAVheli SKY-TRUCK with heavy-lift capabilities. RF continues KAB employment against Sumy Oblast and Donbas region. Kotsnews posts video of a night raid on Izmail, claiming hits. Дневник Десантника reports increased strikes on military targets in Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, and claims RF strikes on military objects in several Ukrainian regions. RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Khliborob (Sumy region), Bilohirya, and Novoselivka (Zaporizhzhia region). Fighterbomber posts video of a LMR strike on a UAV control point. Fighterbomber also shows drone footage of explosions in a residential area, likely an artillery strike. Поддубный reports intense air traffic over Dnipropetrovsk border regions, with "Supercams," "Lancets," and FPV drones actively targeting Ukrainian artillery and supply vehicles. Дневник Десантника claims RF strikes destroyed UAF weapons depots in Pokrovske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of strike UAVs from the northeast for Chernihiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV, likely reconnaissance, in western Sumy Oblast, and engaging it. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on the northern direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 promotes the use of dirt bikes by VDV for tactical mobility and supply. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video showing drone footage of an artillery strike on what are presumed to be enemy positions, suggesting RF BDA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ground Operations (Eastern Front – Pokrovsk Main Effort, with claimed aid, new claimed encirclement in Sumy, claimed advances in Kharkiv Oblast, and claims of UAF unsuccessful counter-attacks, and CSTO exercise): TASS claims RF forces encircled elements of UAF 80th Airborne Assault Brigade near Sadky in the Sumy direction. TASS (Pushilin) claims UAF is unsuccessfully attempting counter-attacks west of Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk). TASS (Kymakovsky) claims RF units destroyed several Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage groups attempting to enter Moskovka, Kharkiv Oblast, where RF claims to have dislodged UAF. TASS (Marochko) claims RF units are actively advancing near Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast (less than 7km to the settlement), and TASS claims UAF dislodged from Moskovka, Kharkiv Oblast. MoD Russia claims Grad MLRS crews of the Sever Group eliminated AFU camouflaged positions and manpower clusters in Kharkiv direction. RF MoD claims to have "liberated" Fedorivka in DNR. Два майора posts video of artillery striking UAF trench lines on the Zaporizhzhia front. Kotsnews posts video of a drone over a wooded area with camouflaged military positions. Старше Эдды and Kotsnews are promoting the 144th Motorized Rifle Division advances in the Krasnolimansk direction. Народная милиция ДНР posts video claiming the defeat of three AFU armored vehicles by the 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion. UAF General Staff reports ongoing clashes in South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv), Kupyansk, Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv directions. UAF repelled 11 RF assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. Kadyrov_95 claims Akhmat FPV drones destroyed a UAF reactive launcher in Sumy direction. Воин DV posts drone footage with RF soldiers in Moskovka, Kharkiv Oblast, claiming liberation of a settlement and control of counterattacks.
  • NEW: MoD Russia shares photos/video of "Interaction 2025" exercise, showing Russian paratroopers conducting cohesion drills with CSTO CRRF units, indicating joint training with allied forces. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Logistics Posture (Luhansk Fuel Crisis Confirmed, with Crowdfunded Supplements, and now an Oil Spill, and dirt bikes for tactical logistics, and crowdfunding for UAZ vans): Video evidence confirms a "gasoline collapse" and extensive queues in occupied Luhansk, verifying previous intelligence. "Два майора" posts video of fundraising efforts, with 522 participants, for assault aircraft of the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment. РБК-Україна reports an RF oil spill in the Black Sea moving towards Crimea. Оперативний ЗСУ shares satellite images of destroyed pumping stations at Unecha NPS, indicating successful UAF strikes on RF oil logistics. Два майора's promotion of the UAVheli SKY-TRUCK suggests an RF capability for heavy-lift aerial logistics. Поддубный's report of FPV drones destroying supply vehicles in Dnipropetrovsk border region indicates ongoing logistical attrition.
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 promotes the use of dirt bikes for VDV logistics and supply, highlighting a tactical adaptation for sustainment in difficult terrain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad shares a video of crowdfunding for a UAZ van, noting its age and condition, for military use, indicating continued reliance on public support for logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Defense Industrial Base (Ongoing Production/Internal Security Focus, reliant on public for some sustainment, with DPRK links, and Su-57 production in India, and thwarted domestic terrorism): Военкор Котенок (RF) and ASTRA (UAF-aligned) report FSB thwarted a terrorist attack on a defense industrial complex (OPK) in Izhevsk. TASS showcases strike and reconnaissance UAVs produced in the Far East ahead of the EEF, and the Eastern Economic Forum is ready to meet guests. Басурин о главном also shares video of the thwarted Izhevsk terror attack, as does Два майора. Север.Реалии also reports on the Izhevsk arrests. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Electronic Warfare (Demonstrated Strategic Capability and Counter-UAS): The GPS jamming incident affecting the European Commission President's aircraft is confirmed by multiple sources. Colonelcassad's video on FPV counter-drone operations further demonstrates RF's active EW/counter-UAS capabilities at the tactical level. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Affairs (New Vulnerability, with continued IO on stability, and focus on soldier welfare, and now a focus on internal development and external "enemies"): The incident of an elderly Moscovite unable to receive adequate medical care, reported by Басурин о главном, highlights severe shortcomings in the RF healthcare system. Военкор Котенок (RF) and ASTRA (UAF-aligned) report FSB thwarted a terrorist attack on an OPK in Izhevsk by teenagers. TASS reports on iPhones being sold with a defect due to absence of RuStore. TASS also reports on new episodes in a bribery case involving a policeman. Север.Реалии reports RUSI is recognized as an "undesirable organization" in Russia. TASS reports 2 fatalities from a minefield in Kursk border area, confirmed as civilians by Военкор Котенок. ASTRA reports a ban on filming drone attacks and their consequences in Mari El Republic. Новости Москвы reports on Moscow companies developing anonymous tracking technology. TASS reports that average rental rates for housing in Russian cities have broken last year's record, exceeding 30,000 rubles per month for a one-room apartment. This indicates ongoing economic pressure on the populace.
  • NEW: Глеб Никитин, Governor of Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, posts photos of development in Arzamas, focusing on urban improvements and infrastructure. This is an internal IO effort to project stability and progress. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Kotsnews posts a video warning against nationalism disguised as patriotism, where a lawyer explains how groups incite inter-ethnic conflicts. This indicates internal efforts to manage social tensions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Рыбарь posted videos of "underage terrorists" being detained and interrogated, likely linked to the Izhevsk OPK incident, reinforcing internal security narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Новости Москвы shared an infographic on mushroom picking spots in Moscow Oblast, as well as a video about "autumn depression" at the Moscow Zoo, indicating a focus on non-military domestic content for internal consumption, likely to project normalcy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad reports on social challenges faced by "heroes of the SMO," implying issues with social support for veterans. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Басурин о главном posted infographics on cybersecurity scams and fake medical/educational resources, suggesting internal awareness campaigns or IO about domestic issues affecting the populace. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports former head of RF Armed Forces communication planning department Ogloblin, sentenced for bribery, applied to participate in the "special operation" over 10 times but was rejected, indicating internal governance issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports villagers helped an ex-serviceman send children to school, indicating societal support structures for veterans. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Mash на Донбассе reports a "fake head" of the Urzuf administration was extorting money and tried to bribe investigators, indicating internal corruption issues in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ASTRA reports a suspected war criminal was appointed minister, indicating RF internal political decisions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports five families from Russia and five from Ukraine will reunite with their relatives, indicating ongoing humanitarian efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Energy Diplomacy (New Strategic Agreements): ASTRA and Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны confirm Russia and China signed a memorandum for the construction of the "Power of Siberia-2" gas pipeline. TASS reports 22 documents on cooperation were signed. Alex Parker Returns also reports on the Power of Siberia-2 memorandum. Putin states RF is ready to cooperate with USA and Ukraine on ZNPP and is open to atomic cooperation with USA in Slovakia. Putin admits RF now strikes Ukrainian energy infrastructure in response to previous UAF strikes. Два майора reports Putin in China stated Russia tolerated Ukrainian strikes on its energy infrastructure for a long time but has now started to respond seriously. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Russia and Turkey tested a mechanism where Gazprom payments for gas will remain in Turkey, to be used for the Akkuyu NPP, indicating energy diplomacy and economic cooperation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • High-Level Bilateral/Multilateral Meetings (Putin in Beijing): TASS reports Putin's arrival at Diaoyutai residence in Beijing, and later walking with Xi Jinping in Zhongnanhai. ТАСС, ASTRA, Новости Москвы report China will introduce a 30-day visa-free regime for Russian citizens from September 15th. TASS reports Peskov stated that a meeting between Putin and Kim Jong Un would be discussed after Kim's arrival in Beijing tonight. TASS also reports Kim Jong Un's train has arrived in Beijing. Басурин о главном reports on the conclusion of Scott Ritter's working visit to Moscow. TASS reports Putin met with Slovak PM Fico in Beijing, with Fico expressing gratitude for hospitality at Victory Parade in Moscow. Fico stated he would convey Russia's message to the EU, and complained about UAF strikes on the "Druzhba" pipeline, and called the EU a "frog at the bottom of a well". Putin claimed RF "never attacked" anyone. TASS reports Putin and Kim Jong Un will be together at a parade and reception, and discussions will continue afterwards. Рыбарь reports on a meeting between Putin and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, where Putin presented his perspective on the conflict in Ukraine, stating that Western powers provoked Russia. TASS publishes photos from North Korean newspaper "Rodong Sinmun" dedicating an issue to Kim Jong Un's meeting with families of military personnel who died "liberating Kursk Oblast," which is highly unusual and suggests an RF/DPRK IO effort.
  • NEW: TASS reports Pakistan "resolutely determined" to strengthen ties with Russia, and Putin stating lowered trade is a "good signal to work". (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Alex Parker Returns and Оперативний ЗСУ report Erdogan stated Putin and Zelensky are not ready for a meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Qatar supports a potential Russia-Ukraine summit but is not organizing it. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Transnistria IO: WarGonzo produces a video claiming "Moldova abandoned Transnistria" on its 35th anniversary. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • External/Proxy Support: Два майора reports Turkey has officially commissioned a multi-layered air and missile defense system "Steel Dome." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ASTRA reports the number of North Korean military personnel who died in Ukraine is around 2,000, citing Yonhap via South Korean intelligence, implying direct DPRK military involvement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Рыбарь posts a video about US Navy and Air Force operations in South America, focusing on drug interdiction, with a caption suggesting monitoring of "potential American invasion of Venezuela". (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Alex Parker Returns amplifies an old Facebook post from a Ukrainian soldier claiming Bakhmut was not encircled, likely to highlight perceived UAF propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF: Active in air defense against RF drone attacks in Kyiv Oblast, with confirmed PPO activity over the Left Bank and drones now over central Kyiv, with a confirmed explosion and drone debris falling in Dniprovskyi district, impacting a kindergarten. New threats to Vasylkiv, Borova, and Bila Tserkva, and a new threat to Sumy district. UAF Air Force reports UAVs from Kyiv Oblast moving to Zhytomyr Oblast, then to the border of Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblast, with a new course reported to Zhytomyr/Ozerne. Later, groups of UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast moved towards Kyiv Oblast. Intelligence monitors suggest that drones over Kyiv are reconnaissance "Gerberas" probing PPO positions. Air raid alerts for Kyiv have now been called off. NEW: UAF Air Force reports a threat of strike UAVs from the northeast for Chernihiv Oblast. NEW: UAF Air Force reports an enemy UAV, likely reconnaissance, in western Sumy Oblast, and engaging it. NEW: UAF Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on the northern direction. UAF forces are engaged in defense around Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk) against RF claims of advances and counter-attacks. UAF reports (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) that drones are attempting to penetrate Kyiv's air defense at low altitudes, with a video showing a drone over central Kyiv. Civilians are sheltering in Kyiv metro due to air raid alerts. UAF Naval Forces/General Staff are monitoring an RF oil spill in the Black Sea. UAF General Staff provides information on a terrorist case in Odesa handed over to court. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 is conducting a survey for veterans and reports on passenger transportation via international partners and partnership with Fastiv for community strengthening. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a missing soldier from a Dnipro hospital who has been found. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that women who are local council deputies can travel abroad without restrictions. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a fast-moving target over Sumy Oblast and a UAV course on Honcharivske, and now KAB launches into Donbas and Sumy regions. UAF General Staff reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Khliborob (Sumy region), Bilohirya, and Novoselivka (Zaporizhzhia region), and ongoing clashes in South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv), Kupyansk, Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Orikhiv directions. UAF repelled 3 RF assaults in Kherson direction and 11 RF assaults in Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) direction. Satellite images show results of destruction of pumping stations at Unecha NPS. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares a photo of a soldier ("Hedgehog") joining UAF under contract. РБК-Україна reports "Rubizh" NGU brigade is fundraising for destroyed property and equipment. STERNENKO posts about an "optical fiber drone" for reconnaissance, and also shares a video about drones for school security, but now states donations are insufficient. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports on murder and cruel treatment of civilians during the occupation of Bucha, with new suspicions against RF servicemen and indictments sent to court, and introduces a portal to protect businesses. ASTRA reports 3 injured in Kharkiv Oblast due to shelling. UAF 55th Separate Artillery Brigade (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) posts video of successful detection and destruction of enemy UAV launch points. Kharkiv OTU provides an informational report on the situation in its area of responsibility. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts commendations for Ukrainian Air Force personnel. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Putin admits RF will hit Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and Putin discusses Ukraine's security with Trump. STERNENKO reports a suspect in the Parubiy murder has confessed. РБК-Україна provides video of the suspect in the Parubiy murder confessing to killing his son, claiming self-defense due to the son's involvement with "the opposition" and stating it was a personal revenge against "Ukrainian authorities," denying blackmail from Russia. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports that a company of ground robotic systems from the 93rd Brigade "Kholodny Yar" Alter Ego used an explosive drone and an FPV drone to destroy a bridge used by Russians for logistics, as well as a shelter. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video of the Parubiy suspect confessing, emphasizing his claim of personal revenge and denial of Russian blackmail. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" highlights that "the war continues, but fundraising is stalled!" Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a video of a man expressing anger and frustration over military operations, specifically attacks on infrastructure and bridges, using strong language. Офіс Генерального прокурора officially launches the "StopTisk" platform to protect businesses in Ukraine.
  • NEW: SBU (Оперативний ЗСУ) exposes an FSB agent group that was adjusting Russian fire on Kherson defenders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Zaporizhzhia Oblast (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦) reports 80% completion of winter preparations, including protecting transformer substations and decentralized energy facilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Олександр Вілкул showcases a new security and patriotic education lyceum in Kryvyi Rih. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими reports meetings with families of the 44th Separate Mechanized Brigade and the 71st Separate Jaeger Brigade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: РБК-Україна supports a fundraising effort for vehicles for the 153rd Separate Mechanized Brigade. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video of a severely injured soldier requesting euthanasia from comrades, highlighting the human cost of conflict and medical evacuation challenges. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Стрелков Игорь Иванович shares a video of former Ukrainian President Yanukovych criticizing Ukraine's past EU/NATO aspirations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports on attending a meeting about the "eRecovery" program. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video of Kyiv children holding lessons in the metro, featuring old footage of Poroshenko discussing social welfare, likely RF IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Alex Parker Returns and Оперативний ЗСУ report Erdogan stated Putin and Zelensky are not ready for a meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports Qatar supports a potential Russia-Ukraine summit but is not organizing it. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports high fire danger in Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны reports NATO paid $2 billion for US weapons to Ukraine, citing Rutte. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports five families from Russia and five from Ukraine will reunite with their relatives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video of a Ukrainian paratrooper appealing for donations of a DJI Mavic 3 drone for reconnaissance. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: UAF is modifying HMMWV vehicles with anti-drone mesh protection and improved armor, with two for infantry support and one for reconnaissance/medevac. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports uncovering a scheme to illegally seize over 11 hectares of land on Zhukov Island in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: UAF channels (Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна) confirm the suspect in the Parubiy murder has been remanded for 60 days without bail. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Finland will remove the swastika from its Air Force flags to avoid upsetting NATO allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • External Actors:
  • NEW: Russian sources (Воин DV) report the French Ministry of Health has ordered subordinate departments to "prepare for war." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Afghanistan earthquake casualties. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Gazprom CEO Miller stated that Europe does not realize the scale of the problem with gas injection into underground storage for the upcoming heating season, and time to fix it is running out. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports BRICS countries will create a common list of traditional values. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Pakistan "resolutely determined" to strengthen ties with Russia, and Putin stating lowered trade is a "good signal to work". (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Рыбарь posts a video about US Navy and Air Force operations in South America, focusing on drug interdiction, with a caption suggesting monitoring of "potential American invasion of Venezuela". (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Alex Parker Returns and Оперативний ЗСУ report Erdogan stated Putin and Zelensky are not ready for a meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Qatar supports a potential Russia-Ukraine summit but is not organizing it. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны reports NATO paid $2 billion for US weapons to Ukraine, citing Rutte. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports five families from Russia and five from Ukraine will reunite with their relatives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Germany and France plan to create a joint missile warning system. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Russia and Turkey tested a mechanism where Gazprom payments for gas will remain in Turkey, to be used for the Akkuyu NPP. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Persistent Multi-Oblast Reconnaissance & Multi-Domain Strike (Strategic & Tactical with Renewed Focus on Kyiv, Sumy, Odesa, Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, with specific targeting, expanded aerial axis, and new threats to Kyiv, Vasylkiv, Borova, Bila Tserkva, and active air defense engagement on Left Bank and over central Kyiv, with drone debris in Dniprovskyi district impacting a kindergarten, and now new threats to Chernihiv and Sumy, strikes on Pokrovske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, active targeting of UAF C2/personnel for Kherson, and use of dirt bikes for tactical logistics, and tactical aviation on Northern direction): RF has demonstrated continued capability for massed drone strikes targeting multiple axes simultaneously, with a clear current main effort on Kyiv Oblast (new threats to Kyiv, Vasylkiv, Borova, Bila Tserkva, and active air defense engagement on Left Bank and over central Kyiv, with a confirmed explosion, and drone debris in Dniprovskyi district impacting a kindergarten). Intelligence monitors suggest these are reconnaissance 'Gerbera' drones. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports UAVs from Kyiv Oblast to Zhytomyr Oblast, then to the border of Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblast, with a specific course to Zhytomyr/Ozerne, and a new threat to Sumy district, and KAB launches into Donbas and Sumy regions. Later, groups of UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast moved towards Kyiv Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of a UAV over central Kyiv, possibly attempting low-altitude penetration. TASS showcases strike and reconnaissance UAVs produced in the Far East. Два майора promotes the UAVheli SKY-TRUCK with heavy-lift capabilities. RF also retains the capability to strike other regions like Sumy with KABs. RF PVO remains capable of active defense in border regions. Kotsnews video of a night raid on Izmail, claiming hits, indicates continued deep strike capabilities. Дневник Десантника reports increased strikes on military targets in Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, and claims RF strikes on military objects in several Ukrainian regions. UAF General Staff reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Khliborob (Sumy region), Bilohirya, and Novoselivka (Zaporizhzhia region). Fighterbomber posts video of a LMR strike on a UAV control point and drone footage of explosions in a residential area. Kadyrov_95 claims Akhmat FPV drones destroyed a UAF reactive launcher in Sumy direction. Поддубный reports intense air traffic over Dnipropetrovsk border regions, with "Supercams," "Lancets," and FPV drones actively targeting Ukrainian artillery and supply vehicles. Дневник Десантника claims RF destroyed UAF weapons depots in Pokrovske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • NEW: SBU exposing an FSB agent group that was adjusting Russian fire on Kherson defenders confirms RF's capability for persistent internal espionage and targeting of UAF personnel/C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 promotes the use of dirt bikes by VDV for tactical mobility and supply, indicating an agile logistical capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of strike UAVs from the northeast for Chernihiv Oblast, confirming expanded aerial strike capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports an enemy UAV, likely reconnaissance, in western Sumy Oblast, and engaging it. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on the northern direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Fighterbomber shared images of camouflage options for the Su-34E, indicating continued air asset modernization and procurement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: WarGonzo's video showcasing unmanned systems at 'Vostochny Briz 2023' highlights RF's ongoing R&D and demonstration capabilities for drone technology, including USVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video showing drone footage of an artillery strike on what are presumed to be enemy positions, suggesting RF BDA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ground Offensive Operations (Localized but Aggressive, with external aid for Pokrovsk focus, new claimed encirclement in Sumy, and new claims of advances in Kharkiv Oblast, and UAF unsuccessful counter-attacks, and CSTO exercise): RF is capable of launching localized ground offensives, as evidenced by claims of UAF unsuccessfully attempting counter-attacks west of Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk). RF claims encirclement of UAF 80th Airborne Assault Brigade elements near Sadky in Sumy Oblast. TASS (Marochko) claims active RF advances near Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast (less than 7km), and UAF dislodged from Moskovka, Kharkiv Oblast, and destroyed Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage groups. MoD Russia claims Grad MLRS crews of the Sever Group eliminated AFU camouflaged positions and manpower clusters in Kharkiv direction. RF MoD claims to have "liberated" Fedorivka in DNR. Два майора posts video of artillery striking UAF trench lines on the Zaporizhzhia front and thermal drone footage of explosions in Konstantinovka and Druzhkovka. Kotsnews posts video of a drone over a wooded area with camouflaged military positions. Старше Эдды and Kotsnews promoting the 144th Motorized Rifle Division advances in the Krasnolimansk direction indicates a capability for persistent offensive operations on this axis. Народная милиция ДНР posts video claiming destruction of 3 AFU armored vehicles. Воин DV posts drone footage with RF soldiers in Moskovka, Kharkiv Oblast.
  • NEW: MoD Russia shares photos/video of the "Interaction 2025" exercise, showing Russian paratroopers conducting cohesion drills with CSTO CRRF units, indicating a capability for coordinated multinational operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Defense Industrial Base (Ongoing Production/Internal Security Focus, but reliant on volunteers for other needs, with DPRK links, and Su-57 production in India, and thwarted domestic terrorism): The FSB thwarting a terrorist attack on an OPK in Izhevsk indicates RF's continued capability to protect its defense industrial base from internal threats. TASS showcases strike and reconnaissance UAVs produced in the Far East ahead of the EEF, indicating continued DIB activity. ASTRA reports a ban on filming drone attacks and their consequences in Mari El Republic. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Electronic Warfare (Strategic-level A2/AD Capability and Counter-UAS): RF possesses and has demonstrated a strategic-level EW capability to disrupt air navigation (GPS jamming). Colonelcassad's video showcasing FPV counter-drone operations by specific regiments confirms RF's tactical EW/counter-UAS capabilities at the frontline. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Information Warfare (Sophisticated and Adaptive, with historical revisionism and focus on internal unity, and new Moldovan internal security framing, and now a focus on Russian medical system failures, and specific attacks on Western figures, and now manipulating internal Ukrainian incidents, and managing internal social tensions, and promoting normalcy): RF channels are demonstrating the capability to quickly disseminate self-serving narratives, including claims of ground advances and UAF failures. The Putin-Xi Jinping meeting, and the signing of the Power of Siberia-2 memorandum and 22 cooperation documents, will be heavily used for IO. Басурин о главном's candid report on the catastrophic failure of the Moscow medical system for an elderly citizen could be framed internally as a call for reform. Kotsnews's targeting of Trump and Ursula in IO highlights a capability to influence international political discourse. The FSB's announcement of a foiled terrorist attack on an OPK in Izhevsk will be used to demonstrate internal security effectiveness. TASS highlighting iPhones being sold with a defect due to RuStore absence can be used to frame Western tech as problematic. RF recognizing RUSI as "undesirable" reflects an intent to control information flow. The China visa-free regime announcement is intended to reinforce positive bilateral relations. TASS reporting on Peskov discussing a Putin-Kim meeting is a diplomatic IO signal. TASS reports on minefield deaths in Kursk, which can be used to frame Ukrainian threats. WarGonzo's Transnistria video is a clear IO effort. RF sources are actively presenting UAF air defense as a "fail" during drone attacks on Kyiv. Kadyrov_95 promoting "Trump as Chechen" video is an IO play. Putin's meeting with Slovak PM Fico, and Fico's stated intent to relay Russia's message to the EU, and his complaints about the "Druzhba" pipeline, and calling the EU a "frog at the bottom of a well", show RF's ability to engage and potentially influence EU member states. Putin claims RF "never attacked" anyone. TASS publishes photos from the North Korean newspaper "Rodong Sinmun" dedicating an issue to Kim Jong Un's meeting with families of military personnel who died "liberating Kursk Oblast," which is a clear attempt at historical revisionism or fabrication, and a propaganda effort to connect DPRK's past with current RF narratives.
  • NEW: RF channels (Colonelcassad, НгП раZVедка) are rapidly exploiting the Parubiy murder and suspect's confession to fuel anti-Ukrainian government narratives, calling attendees of the funeral "co-conspirators" or presenting the suspect's act as "revenge on Ukrainian authorities." This demonstrates a sophisticated and opportunistic IO capability to manipulate internal Ukrainian events. Alex Parker Returns continues this exploitation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Глеб Никитин's posts on Arzamas development demonstrate a capability to project internal stability and progress. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ASTRA reports Putin stating "Russia never had, does not have, and will not have the desire to attack anyone" during his meeting with Fico, an explicit IO attempt to deny aggression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Kotsnews posts a video warning against nationalism disguised as patriotism, indicating RF's capability to manage internal social tensions and prevent xenophobia from undermining stability, particularly in the context of the SMO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Рыбарь posted videos of "underage terrorists" being detained and interrogated, likely for internal consumption to demonstrate state control and security effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Новости Москвы shared non-military domestic content (mushroom picking, Moscow Zoo) demonstrating a capability to project normalcy and divert attention from the conflict for internal audiences, aiming to stabilize public sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad reports on social challenges faced by "heroes of the SMO," implying issues with social support for veterans. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Басурин о главном posted infographics on cybersecurity scams and fake medical/educational resources, showing capability to conduct public awareness campaigns on domestic issues, potentially to counter internal vulnerabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports Pakistan is "resolutely determined" to strengthen ties with Russia, and Putin stating lowered trade is a "good signal to work". (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Alex Parker Returns amplifies an old Facebook post from a Ukrainian soldier claiming Bakhmut was not encircled, likely to highlight perceived UAF propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Рыбарь posts a graphic titled "Indian-American War," likely for IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ASTRA reports a suspected war criminal was appointed minister, indicating RF internal political decisions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports five families from Russia and five from Ukraine will reunite with their relatives, indicating ongoing humanitarian IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video of children on a swing in occupied Melitopol, with a critical caption, likely for IO against RF occupation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Diplomatic Leveraging (Strategic Relationships, with emphasis on anti-Western narrative and energy agreements, and additional bilateral meetings): RF retains the capability to engage in high-level diplomatic meetings, as evidenced by the Putin-Xi Jinping meeting and the trilateral summit with China and Mongolia, to reinforce strategic alliances and challenge Western influence. The signing of the Power of Siberia-2 memorandum and 22 cooperation documents reinforces this. China's announcement of a 30-day visa-free regime for Russian citizens strengthens bilateral ties. TASS reporting on Peskov discussing a Putin-Kim meeting highlights RF's capability for high-level diplomatic engagement. TASS reports US Senator Mike Lee's proposal for US to exit NATO, which RF will leverage for IO. Басурин о главном's report on Scott Ritter's visit and declaration indicates ongoing engagement with sympathetic foreign figures. Putin's meeting with Slovak PM Fico, and Fico's stated intent to relay Russia's message to the EU, and his complaints about the "Druzhba" pipeline, and calling the EU a "frog at the bottom of a well", show RF's ability to engage and potentially influence EU member states. Putin's statements on ZNPP and atomic cooperation with USA in Slovakia signal attempts at broader diplomatic engagement. TASS reports Putin and Kim Jong Un will be together at a parade and reception, and discussions will continue afterwards, signaling ongoing high-level diplomatic engagement.
  • NEW: Russian sources (Воин DV) report the French Ministry of Health has ordered subordinate departments to "prepare for war," indicating RF's capability to monitor and amplify Western statements to frame an escalating narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Gazprom CEO Miller stated Europe underestimates the gas storage problem for winter, showcasing RF's capability to use energy as a diplomatic tool and highlight European vulnerabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports BRICS countries will create a common list of traditional values, signaling alignment on cultural/ideological matters. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Pakistan "resolutely determined" to strengthen ties with Russia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Alex Parker Returns and Оперативний ЗСУ report Erdogan stated Putin and Zelensky are not ready for a meeting. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Qatar supports a potential Russia-Ukraine summit but is not organizing it. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Russia and Turkey tested a mechanism where Gazprom payments for gas will remain in Turkey, to be used for the Akkuyu NPP, indicating energy diplomacy and economic cooperation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Intentions:
  • Strategic Objective: Achieve "Special Military Operation" Goals Through Persistent Pressure and Erosion of Ukrainian Capacity, including energy infrastructure, while rejecting compromise, and active internal espionage: The renewed and intensified drone attacks on Kyiv Oblast (new threats to Kyiv, Vasylkiv, Borova, Bila Tserkva, and active air defense engagement on Left Bank and over central Kyiv, with reconnaissance drones probing PPO positions, with drone debris in Dniprovskyi district impacting a kindergarten), and continued KAB strikes on Sumy Oblast and Donbas region clearly indicate RF's unwavering intent to degrade Ukrainian military and civilian capacity. Putin's admission that RF will strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure explicitly states this intent. The thwarted terrorist attack on an OPK in Izhevsk highlights RF's intent to protect its defense industrial base. RF showcasing new UAVs and promoting the UAVheli SKY-TRUCK demonstrates an intent to sustain and enhance deep strike and logistical capabilities. RF claims of dislodging UAF in Moskovka, Kharkiv Oblast, and destroying Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage groups, indicate a persistent intent to gain territory and degrade UAF ISR capabilities. Putin's statement (via Два майора) that Russia tolerated Ukrainian strikes on its energy infrastructure for a long time but has now started to respond seriously explicitly outlines the intent to retaliate and degrade Ukrainian energy capacity.
  • NEW: SBU exposing an FSB agent group that was adjusting Russian fire on Kherson defenders confirms RF's intent to conduct internal espionage to target UAF C2 and personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Operational Objective: Degradation of Ukrainian Military & Civilian Resilience and Breakthrough on Eastern Front, particularly Pokrovsk, and consolidation of gains on new axes, with enhanced tactical mobility: The drone strikes on Kyiv Oblast, particularly those identified as reconnaissance drones, reinforce RF's intent to target critical infrastructure and air defense, aiming to disrupt normal life and degrade Ukraine's economic and civilian resilience. The aggressive ground claims in Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk), now with claims of UAF unsuccessful counter-attacks, continue to indicate an operational objective to seize key territory on the eastern front. The claimed encirclement of UAF 80th AAB near Sadky in Sumy Oblast, and claimed active advances near Kozacha Lopan in Kharkiv Oblast, suggest an intent to open new offensive axes or achieve localized breakthroughs to force UAF to disperse resources and potentially secure border regions. RF MoD claims of eliminating UAF positions in Kharkiv direction, and artillery strikes on Zaporizhzhia, reinforce intent to apply pressure across multiple fronts. Ongoing clashes across multiple axes (South Slobozhansky, Kupyansk, Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv) indicate RF's intent to maintain pressure on various fronts. Promotion of 144th Motorized Rifle Division advances in Krasnolimansk indicates an intent to achieve breakthroughs on specific axes. Poddubny's reporting of intense aerial traffic and targeted strikes on Ukrainian artillery and supply vehicles in Dnipropetrovsk indicates an intent to degrade UAF logistics and fire support. RF's claim of destroying UAF weapons depots in Pokrovske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, further indicates intent to degrade UAF logistics. The claim of liberating Fedorivka in DNR indicates an intent to consolidate control in Donetsk.
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 promoting the use of dirt bikes by VDV for tactical mobility and supply indicates an intent to increase battlefield agility and sustainment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of strike UAVs from the northeast for Chernihiv Oblast, indicating an intent to expand aerial strike focus. NEW: UAV activity over Sumy and tactical aviation in Northern direction indicates intent to maintain ISR and strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Information/Diplomatic Objective: Project Strength, Undermine Western Unity, and Control Narratives, with historical revisionism and long-term energy security, and actively exploiting Ukrainian internal incidents, and managing internal social tensions, and promoting normalcy: RF's amplification of ground claims (Pokrovsk, Sumy encirclement, Kharkiv advances, Moskovka seizure, Fedorivka liberation) and selective reporting on "attacked enemy objects" aims to project military effectiveness and control the narrative. RF's diplomatic overtures (Putin-Xi-Mongolia meetings, Power of Siberia-2 memorandum, 22 cooperation documents) aim to project diplomatic strength, long-term energy security, and a robust international standing. Басурин о главном's candid criticism of the Russian medical system could be an attempt to manage domestic discontent. Kotsnews's targeting of Trump and Ursula in IO highlights an intent to influence international political discourse. The FSB's announcement of a foiled terror plot is intended to showcase state control. TASS highlighting iPhones being sold with a defect due to RuStore absence can be used to frame Western tech as problematic. RF recognizing RUSI as "undesirable" reflects an intent to control information flow. The China visa-free regime announcement is intended to reinforce positive bilateral relations. TASS reports of US Senator Mike Lee's statements regarding NATO indicate an intent to amplify anti-NATO sentiment. The ban on filming drone attacks in Mari El is a clear intent to control information. RF promoting positive internal news signals an intent to project normalcy. WarGonzo's Transnistria video indicates an intent to foster separatist narratives. RF sources highlighting "Ukrainian PVO fail" reflects an intent to degrade UAF morale. Kadyrov_95's "Trump as Chechen" video is an IO play. Putin's meeting with Slovak PM Fico, and Fico's intent to relay Russia's message to the EU, and his complaints, shows an intent to create internal EU divisions. Putin's statement that RF "never attacked" anyone is a clear IO attempt to rewrite history. Putin discussing Ukraine's security with Trump indicates intent to influence US foreign policy. TASS reports that US NATO allies lack the political will for a quick end to hostilities in Ukraine, and Europe is unwilling to deploy troops, indicating an intent to amplify Western disunity. TASS reports Putin and Kim Jong Un will be together at a parade and reception, and discussions will continue afterwards, indicating intent to project strong, anti-Western alliances. The North Korean "Rodong Sinmun" newspaper's dedication to Kim Jong Un's meeting with families of military personnel who died "liberating Kursk Oblast" indicates an intent to fabricate or revise history for propaganda purposes, possibly to legitimize DPRK military involvement in Ukraine.
  • NEW: RF channels (Colonelcassad, НгП раZVедка) are explicitly exploiting the Parubiy murder and suspect's confession to generate anti-Ukrainian government narratives, demonstrating an intent to destabilize internal Ukrainian politics and morale. Alex Parker Returns continues this exploitation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Глеб Никитин's posts on Arzamas development demonstrate an intent to project normalcy and progress domestically. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Воин DV's report on French Ministry of Health preparing for war indicates an intent to frame Western nations as preparing for direct conflict, escalating the narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: MoD Russia's "Interaction 2025" exercise coverage shows an intent to project military strength and alliance cohesion (CSTO). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Kotsnews's video on nationalism disguised as patriotism indicates an intent to control internal social narratives and prevent internal divisions from escalating. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Рыбарь posting videos of "underage terrorists" aims to reinforce state security narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Новости Москвы posting non-military domestic content indicates an intent to project normalcy and stability to internal audiences. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad reports on social challenges faced by "heroes of the SMO," potentially indicating an intent to acknowledge and manage veteran welfare issues, or to use these issues for internal critique and reform. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Басурин о главном posting infographics on cybersecurity scams and fake medical/educational resources indicates an intent to educate the public on domestic threats, potentially countering internal vulnerabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Gazprom CEO Miller stated Europe underestimates gas storage problem, confirming an intent to leverage energy as a diplomatic tool and highlight European vulnerabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports BRICS countries will create a common list of traditional values, indicating an intent to foster ideological alignment among non-Western blocs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Pakistan "resolutely determined" to strengthen ties with Russia, and Putin stating lowered trade is a "good signal to work". (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Alex Parker Returns and Оперативний ЗСУ report Erdogan stated Putin and Zelensky are not ready for a meeting, indicating an intent to show a lack of progress in peace talks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Qatar supports a potential Russia-Ukraine summit but is not organizing it, indicating an intent to show international support for RF without direct mediation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Рыбарь posts a graphic titled "Indian-American War," indicating an intent to promote anti-Western geopolitical narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ASTRA reports a suspected war criminal was appointed minister, indicating RF's intent to disregard international norms in appointments. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports five families from Russia and five from Ukraine will reunite, indicating an intent to portray humanitarian efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Russia and Turkey testing a mechanism for Gazprom payments to remain in Turkey for Akkuyu NPP indicates an intent to circumvent Western sanctions and secure energy projects. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Courses of Action (COAs):
  • COA 1 (Sustained and Intensified Multi-Domain Deep Strikes on Capital, Key Regional Targets, and Energy/Industrial/Port Infrastructure, with KAB Employment, and Blame Attribution IO, and Escalated Retaliation, including very high volume drone attacks, and targeting of UAF C2/personnel, and active internal espionage, and enhanced tactical logistics): RF will maintain and likely intensify its massed drone and missile attacks on Kyiv Oblast, specifically targeting critical infrastructure and now industrial zones, likely resulting in further casualties and destruction (new threats to Kyiv, Vasylkiv, Borova, Bila Tserkva, and active air defense engagement on Left Bank and over central Kyiv, with a confirmed explosion, drone debris in Dniprovskyi district impacting a kindergarten, and UAVs also traversing Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, and Chernihiv Oblasts, and reconnaissance 'Gerbera' drones probing PPO, with a specific UAV course reported towards Zhytomyr/Ozerne, and a new threat to Sumy district, and a new threat of strike UAVs from the northeast for Chernihiv Oblast, and an enemy UAV in western Sumy Oblast, and tactical aviation on the northern direction). RF is highly likely to conduct increased intensity or more destructive strikes against Ukrainian border cities and infrastructure (e.g., Izium, Izmail, Kharkiv Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk border regions for artillery/supply vehicles, including claimed destruction of UAF weapons depots in Pokrovske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), exploiting any civilian casualties for IO, framing UAF unsuccessful counter-attacks, and emphasizing RF counter-drone successes and showcasing new UAVs. Putin's admission of striking energy infrastructure confirms this COA. RF will continue aviation strikes against military targets in various regions and UAV control points. RF will enforce information control, as seen with the ban on filming drone attacks in Mari El. RF will actively propagate narratives of "Ukrainian PVO fails" during these strikes. Putin's statement (via Два майора) explicitly confirming that Russia tolerated Ukrainian strikes on its energy infrastructure for a long time but has now started to respond seriously explicitly confirms this retaliatory posture.
  • NEW: RF will continue to leverage FSB agent networks (as exposed in Kherson) to adjust fire and conduct targeting, emphasizing persistent internal espionage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • COA 2 (Reinforced Ground Offensive in Pokrovsk Axis, with Consolidation on new axes in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, and Localized Offensive Operations on other Eastern directions, integrated with IO and Civilian Support Leveraging, and multinational exercises, and enhanced tactical mobility): RF will commit further forces to exploit any perceived gains in Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk), continuing to make it a primary ground effort, despite the UAF liberation of Udachne. RF will attempt to consolidate claimed encirclement of UAF 80th AAB near Sadky in Sumy Oblast, and push active advances near Kozacha Lopan and consolidate gains in Moskovka in Kharkiv Oblast (supported by ground IO from Воин DV), including destroying UAF reconnaissance and sabotage groups. These new axes of advance will be accompanied by heavy IO. RF MoD claim of liberating Fedorivka (DNR) will be part of this consolidation. RF will continue to leverage crowdfunded support for tactical units (including for UAZ vans). RF will continue to use artillery, including Grad MLRS (Kharkiv direction) and other platforms (Zaporizhzhia front, Konstantinovka, Druzhkovka), to support ground operations. RF will continue ground assaults and clashes across all active fronts. RF will heavily promote claims of advances by units like the 144th Motorized Rifle Division in Krasnolimansk. RF will continue anti-armor engagements. RF will also continue mine laying in border areas.
  • NEW: RF will conduct multinational military exercises with CSTO CRRF units ("Interaction 2025") to project strength and enhance operational readiness with allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: RF (VDV) will continue to adopt and promote tactical mobility solutions like dirt bikes for logistics and reconnaissance in challenging terrain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • COA 3 (Sustained Diplomatic and Military-Industrial Outreach & Strategic EW, with Reinforced Anti-Western/Historical Revisionism IO, and Internal Stability Focus, and Long-Term Energy Strategy, and Legal Action against Critical Analysis, and attempts to influence Moldovan internal affairs, and exploiting Ukrainian internal incidents, and framing Western "war preparations"): RF will continue to leverage its strategic EW capabilities (e.g., GPS jamming) and tactical counter-drone capabilities. RF will persist in diplomatic initiatives to strengthen partnerships (China/Putin-Xi/Mongolia meetings, new long-term energy agreements with China/Mongolia, China visa-free regime, potential Putin-Kim meeting now with Kim's arrival in Beijing, with ongoing tete-a-tete discussions with Fico, and strengthening ties with Pakistan, and new energy agreements with Turkey) and pursue a robust anti-Western geopolitical narrative (e.g., "warning shot" for Trump, "warlike Ursula," historical revisionism, "undesirable" RUSI, US Senator Mike Lee's NATO comments, NYT on warming global attitude towards Putin, Fico's EU criticism, Putin stating "Russia never had...desire to attack anyone", and anti-US narratives in South America). RF will integrate narratives of internal security successes (thwarted Izhevsk terror attack, bribery arrests, successful detention of "underage terrorists") and address internal social issues (medical system failures, RuStore absence, gift limits for teachers/doctors, internal security incidents like the Shchelkovo police assault, cemetery plot disputes, migrant issues, rising rental prices, and promoting internal development in cities like Arzamas, and promoting community support for veterans) into its IO. The signing of the Power of Siberia-2 memorandum and 22 cooperation documents will be heavily promoted. RF will showcase DIB capabilities, such as new UAV production and the UAVheli SKY-TRUCK. RF will continue to project normalcy and public support (e.g., mushroom picking, zoo videos). RF will continue to suppress negative information. RF will intensify IO against Moldova regarding Transnistria. RF will leverage sympathetic foreign figures. RF will highlight any instability in Europe. Putin's meeting with Fico will be leveraged for IO. RF will continue to use out-of-context quotes from UAF leadership. Putin's statements on ZNPP and atomic cooperation with USA in Slovakia will be part of this. The planned Putin-Kim meeting at a parade and reception, with continued discussions, will be a key component of this diplomatic outreach. RF will leverage the TASS report on US NATO allies lacking political will to end hostilities in Ukraine. RF will likely use the North Korean "Rodong Sinmun" article on "liberating Kursk Oblast" as part of a broader historical revisionism campaign. RF will leverage the Guardian report on US threats of sanctions at the UNSC for IO. RF will actively exploit internal Ukrainian incidents, such as the Parubiy murder and suspect's confession, to fuel anti-Ukrainian government narratives and sow internal discord. RF will frame Western "war preparations" (e.g., French Ministry of Health) as evidence of Western aggression. RF will continue to foster ideological alignment with BRICS countries on "traditional values." RF will continue IO surrounding a potential Russia-Ukraine summit. RF will continue to highlight perceived UAF propaganda. RF will continue IO around appointments of suspected war criminals. RF will continue IO around family reunions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• RF:
  • Shifted Deep Strike Main Effort back to Kyiv Oblast (Expanded with new threats to Kyiv, Vasylkiv, Borova, Bila Tserkva, and active air defense engagement over Left Bank and central Kyiv, with drone debris in Dniprovskyi district impacting a kindergarten, and now new threats to Chernihiv and Sumy, new targeting of UAF C2/personnel for Kherson, and use of dirt bikes for tactical logistics, and tactical aviation on Northern direction): The massed drone attack on Brovary and confirmed active air defense over Kyiv and new specific threats to Bila Tserkva confirm a tactical adaptation to re-prioritize pressure on the capital region. The reported movement of UAVs across multiple oblasts indicates an adaptation to probe different air defense axes. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS's video of low-altitude drones over Kyiv suggests an adaptation to penetrate air defenses, and monitors suggest these are reconnaissance drones. Colonelcassad's video on FPV counter-drone operations indicates an adaptation to actively counter UAF drone threats. TASS showcasing new strike/reconnaissance UAVs and Два майора promoting the UAVheli SKY-TRUCK indicates an adaptation in DIB output. Kadyrov_95's claim of Akhmat FPV drone use in Sumy direction indicates adaptation of specialized forces. Поддубный's report of intense air traffic and targeted drone strikes on Ukrainian artillery and supply vehicles in Dnipropetrovsk border region indicates an adaptation to actively target UAF logistics and fire support on a new axis. RF claims of destroying UAF weapons depots in Pokrovske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicate an adaptation to target logistics deeper within Ukraine.
  • NEW: SBU exposing an FSB agent group that was adjusting Russian fire on Kherson defenders indicates a persistent and adaptive internal espionage effort to support kinetic strikes on UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 promotes the use of dirt bikes by VDV for tactical mobility and supply, indicating an adaptation for agile logistics in difficult terrain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of strike UAVs from the northeast for Chernihiv Oblast, confirming an adaptation to open new aerial axes. NEW: UAV activity over Sumy and tactical aviation in Northern direction indicates adaptation to maintain ISR and strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Fighterbomber shared images of camouflage options for the Su-34E, indicating adaptive efforts in aircraft modernization or procurement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: WarGonzo's video showcasing unmanned systems at 'Vostochny Briz 2023' highlights an adaptation to prioritize R&D and demonstration of drone technology. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video showing drone footage of an artillery strike on what are presumed to be enemy positions, suggesting RF BDA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Persistent Multi-Regional Strikes with Varied Focus & Expanded Aerial Axis: RF continues simultaneous multi-regional strikes (Kyiv, Sumy, Donbas, Bila Tserkva), indicating an adaptation to dilute UAF air defense resources. The ongoing KAB strikes on Sumy Oblast and Donbas region demonstrate a persistent tactic. RF strikes on Izmail and Izium indicate an adaptation to broaden deep strike targets. RF aviation conducted airstrikes on multiple regions (Sumy, Zaporizhzhia), reflecting an adaptation for widespread air support. Fighterbomber's LMR strike on a UAV control point indicates adaptation to target UAF C2 for UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Aggressive Ground Maneuver on New Axes (Sumy, Kharkiv Oblast), and persistent pressure on Pokrovsk, with multinational exercises: RF claims of encircling UAF 80th Airborne Assault Brigade elements near Sadky in Sumy, and active advances near Kozacha Lopan and dislodgement in Moskovka in Kharkiv Oblast, signify an adaptation towards opening new offensive axes. The continued claim of UAF unsuccessful counter-attacks west of Krasnoarmiysk indicates persistent aggressive pressure on the Pokrovsk axis. RF MoD claim of liberating Fedorivka in DNR also highlights a new area of claimed consolidation. MoD Russia using Grad MLRS in Kharkiv direction and Два майора showing artillery on Zaporizhzhia front and thermal drone footage of explosions in Konstantinovka and Druzhkovka indicates persistent and adapted use of indirect fire. Heavy promotion of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division in Krasnolimansk indicates an adaptation to highlight successes on specific axes.
  • NEW: MoD Russia sharing photos/video of "Interaction 2025" exercise, showing Russian paratroopers conducting cohesion drills with CSTO CRRF units, demonstrates an adaptation to conduct multinational exercises to enhance readiness and project alliance strength. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad shares a video of crowdfunding for a UAZ van, noting its age and condition, for military use, indicating an adaptation for public procurement of logistical assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Demonstrated Strategic EW Capability and Tactical Counter-UAS: The confirmed GPS jamming incident affecting a European Commission President's aircraft is a significant adaptation, demonstrating RF's capability to project EW effects at a strategic level. Colonelcassad's video on FPV counter-drone operations demonstrates an adaptation to deploy specialized counter-UAS units. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Integrated IO with Kinetic Strikes and Blame Attribution, and Historical Revisionism, and Rapid Narrative Generation, with new internal stability/morale focus and specific attacks on Western figures, and exploiting Ukrainian internal incidents, and managing internal social tensions, and promoting normalcy: RF channels immediately publishing claims of "attacked enemy objects" suggests a tactical adaptation to integrate IO with kinetic operations. Peskov's comments and Xi Jinping's historical revisionism regarding WWII (TASS) are a coordinated adaptation to frame the conflict within a broader anti-Western narrative. Басурин о главном's candid internal criticism of the medical system, if a controlled release, is an adaptation to manage domestic discontent. Kotsnews's "warning shot" article for Trump and Ursula is an adaptation for targeted international IO. The FSB's announcement of a foiled terror plot is an adaptation to project internal security competence. TASS highlighting iPhone defect due to RuStore absence could contribute to public frustration. RF's recognition of RUSI as "undesirable" is an adaptation to control information. The China visa-free regime is an adaptation to foster bilateral relations. The Putin-Kim meeting discussion is an adaptation to signal diplomatic options. The ban on filming drone attacks in Mari El is an adaptation for strict information control. The immediate promotion of 144th Motorized Rifle Division successes and AFU armored vehicle destruction shows an adaptation for rapid, morale-boosting IO. TASS reporting on US Senator Mike Lee's NATO comments reflects an adaptation to leverage external anti-NATO sentiment. WarGonzo's Transnistria video is an adaptation of IO. RF is actively posting videos claiming "Ukrainian PVO fail" over Kyiv. Kadyrov_95 promoting the "Trump as Chechen" video is an IO play. The meeting with Slovak PM Fico, and Fico's stated intent to relay Russia's message to the EU, and his complaints, shows an adaptation for direct engagement with EU member states. Putin's statement that RF "never attacked" anyone is an IO adaptation to deny aggression. Putin's discussion of Ukraine security with Trump is an adaptation to influence US foreign policy. The TASS report on US NATO allies lacking political will for a quick end to hostilities, and Europe unwilling to deploy troops, is an adaptation to amplify Western disunity in IO. The TASS report on Putin and Kim Jong Un attending a parade and reception, and continuing discussions, is an adaptation to project strong, anti-Western alliances. The North Korean "Rodong Sinmun" article on Kim Jong Un meeting families of military personnel who died "liberating Kursk Oblast" is a clear adaptation for historical revisionism and propaganda to legitimize DPRK military involvement.
  • NEW: RF channels (Colonelcassad, НгП раZVедка) are rapidly adapting their IO to exploit the Parubiy murder and suspect's confession to fuel anti-Ukrainian government narratives, demonstrating opportunistic propaganda. Alex Parker Returns continues this exploitation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Глеб Никитин's posts on Arzamas development demonstrate an adaptive use of social media to project internal stability and progress. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Kotsnews's video warning against nationalism disguised as patriotism shows an adaptation to manage internal social tensions and prevent xenophobia from undermining stability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Рыбарь posting videos of "underage terrorists" is an adaptation to reinforce internal security narratives and demonstrate state control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Новости Москвы posting non-military domestic content is an adaptation to project normalcy and divert attention from the conflict for internal audiences. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad reporting on social challenges faced by "heroes of the SMO" could be an adaptive IO move to acknowledge and manage veteran welfare issues, or a genuine internal critique. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Басурин о главном posting infographics on cybersecurity scams and fake medical/educational resources is an adaptation to conduct public awareness campaigns on domestic issues, potentially countering internal vulnerabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Pakistan is "resolutely determined" to strengthen ties with Russia, and Putin stating lowered trade is a "good signal to work". (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Alex Parker Returns amplifies an old Facebook post from a Ukrainian soldier claiming Bakhmut was not encircled, likely to highlight perceived UAF propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Рыбарь posts a graphic titled "Indian-American War," an adaptive IO effort to promote anti-Western geopolitical narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ASTRA reports a suspected war criminal was appointed minister, indicating RF's adaptive use of controversial appointments within its internal IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports five families from Russia and five from Ukraine will reunite, an adaptive IO effort to show humanitarianism. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video of children on a swing in occupied Melitopol, with a critical caption, likely an adaptive IO effort against RF occupation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Heightened Diplomatic Activity with Strategic Messaging and Energy Deals: The high-level meeting between Putin and Xi Jinping in Beijing and the trilateral summit with Mongolia, including the signing of the Power of Siberia-2 memorandum and 22 cooperation documents, indicate an adaptation to actively reinforce strategic partnerships. China's visa-free regime for Russians and the discussion of a Putin-Kim meeting, now with Kim's arrival in Beijing, reflect adapted diplomatic efforts. Басурин о главном reporting on Scott Ritter's visit indicates an adaptation for engaging foreign sympathizers. The meeting with Slovak PM Fico is a new diplomatic adaptation. The confirmed plan for Putin and Kim Jong Un to attend a parade and reception together, with continued discussions, signifies a heightened and adapted diplomatic push to strengthen this alliance.
  • NEW: TASS reports Pakistan "resolutely determined" to strengthen ties with Russia, indicating an adaptive diplomatic outreach to a key regional player. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Alex Parker Returns and Оперативний ЗСУ report Erdogan stated Putin and Zelensky are not ready for a meeting, indicating an adaptive diplomatic message to manage expectations on peace talks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Qatar supports a potential Russia-Ukraine summit but is not organizing it, an adaptive diplomatic message to acknowledge international support for dialogue without direct involvement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Russia and Turkey tested a mechanism where Gazprom payments for gas will remain in Turkey, to be used for the Akkuyu NPP, indicating an adaptive diplomatic and economic strategy to circumvent sanctions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF:
  • Effective Air Defense C2 and Early Warning (Expanded Coverage and Confirmed Success, with new threats to Kyiv, Vasylkiv, Borova, Bila Tserkva, and active air defense engagement over Left Bank and central Kyiv, with drone debris in Dniprovskyi district impacting a kindergarten, and now winter preparations for energy infrastructure, and new threats to Chernihiv and Sumy, and tactical aviation on Northern direction): UAF channels continue to provide rapid and specific warnings about incoming drones and their trajectories, demonstrating adaptive C2 and air defense responses to evolving RF aerial threats, now including confirmed active PPO over the Left Bank and drones over central Kyiv, with a confirmed explosion, and new specific threats to Vasylkiv, Borova, and Bila Tserkva, and drone debris in Dniprovskyi district. The reporting of UAV movements across multiple oblasts indicates adaptive ISR and tracking. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS's video of low-altitude drones over Kyiv and immediate reporting, along with public sheltering in the metro, indicates adaptive C2 for civil defense. Север.Реалии's reporting on Rostov-on-Don damage and casualties, as a UAF-aligned source, demonstrates an adaptation for transparent and impactful BDA dissemination. Immediate reporting of fast-moving targets over Sumy Oblast and UAV courses on Honcharivske, and KAB launches into Donbas and Sumy regions, demonstrates adaptive, real-time air domain awareness and warning. Repelling 11 RF assaults in Kursk and Sumy direction indicates effective border defense adaptations. Николаевский Ванёк provides a summary of morning drone activity. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of 55th Separate Artillery Brigade detecting and destroying enemy UAV launch points, showing effective counter-UAV adaptations.
  • NEW: Zaporizhzhia Oblast (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦) reports 80% completion of winter preparations, including protecting transformer substations and decentralized energy facilities, indicating an adaptive strategy to harden critical infrastructure against winter attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a threat of strike UAVs from the northeast for Chernihiv Oblast, demonstrating adaptive threat awareness. NEW: UAV activity over Sumy and tactical aviation in Northern direction indicates adaptive threat awareness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Successful Ground Defense in Pokrovsk Axis, with local offensive success, and innovative tactical engineering: TASS (Pushilin) claiming UAF is unsuccessfully attempting counter-attacks west of Krasnoarmiysk implicitly confirms UAF active defensive and counter-offensive actions in the area. Continued activity on Zaporizhzhia front indicates UAF is maintaining defensive posture. UAF General Staff reporting of repelling RF assaults across multiple axes demonstrates adaptive, robust defensive operations. UAF General Staff and Оперативний ЗСУ confirm the clearing of Udachne in Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk direction), a significant local offensive success. ОТУ "Харків" providing a morning situation report for its area of responsibility. The 93rd Brigade using ground robotic systems and FPV drones to destroy a logistics bridge and shelter demonstrates an adaptive, innovative approach to tactical interdiction and engineering obstacles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Confirmed Deep Strike Capabilities on RF Territory (with confirmed damage and casualties): UAF has successfully adapted its deep strike capabilities, evidenced by the drone attacks on Rostov-on-Don, now with confirmed damage to two multi-story buildings and four injured. Satellite images of destroyed pumping stations at Unecha NPS provide clear evidence of successful UAF deep strikes against RF oil logistics infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Information Operations (Counter-Narrative/Human Cost/Transparency, and new political messaging, and addressing internal security challenges): UAF channels providing real-time air raid alerts and reporting on civilian damage and casualties (3 injured in Kharkiv Oblast, drone debris hitting a kindergarten in Kyiv) demonstrates transparency. The warning about RF reconnaissance of energy facilities (confirmed to be 'Gerbera' drones probing PPO) is crucial for proactive counter-IO. Оперативний ЗСУ reporting a missing soldier from a Dnipro hospital who has been found, and STERNENKO's interview on Ukrainian military education, demonstrates UAF's adaptive IO. The public referral of the Odesa terror case to court showcases a commitment to legal process. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights civilians sheltering in Kyiv metro and posts an image on RF casualties per square kilometer, a new IO adaptation. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on women deputies travelling abroad. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's recruitment post leveraging familial duty is an adaptive IO tactic. Fundraising efforts by the "Rubizh" NGU brigade show adaptive public engagement for sustainment. STERNENKO posts about "optical fiber drones" and announces +310 FPV drones purchased in the last day through public support, but now states donations are insufficient. РБК-Україна showcases a "Magura" naval drone. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Putin admits RF will strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports Putin discussing Ukraine's security with Trump. STERNENKO, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Kotsnews, Операция Z, and Военкор Котенок are all reporting on the Parubiy murder confession. The UAF-aligned channels are framing the suspect's claim of personal revenge and denial of Russian blackmail, indicating an adaptive IO effort to control the narrative around a sensitive internal security incident. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" highlighting stalled fundraising for the war is an adaptive public call to action. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 sharing a video of public frustration about military operations indicates an adaptive approach to acknowledging public sentiment.
  • NEW: SBU exposing an FSB agent group that was adjusting Russian fire on Kherson defenders is an adaptive counter-intelligence and IO success, demonstrating UAF's ability to counter internal espionage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Internal civil defense instructions for Sevastopol civilians were disseminated by Colonelcassad, showing adaptive public awareness campaigns in occupied territories, likely in response to UAF deep strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Олександр Вілкул showcases a new security and patriotic education lyceum in Kryvyi Rih, an adaptive response to strengthen national security education. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими reports meetings with families of the 44th Separate Mechanized Brigade and the 71st Separate Jaeger Brigade, an adaptive response to address soldier welfare and public concerns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: РБК-Україна supports a fundraising effort for vehicles for the 153rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, demonstrating adaptive public engagement for sustainment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video of a severely injured soldier requesting euthanasia from comrades, highlighting the human cost of conflict and medical evacuation challenges, which can be leveraged for IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Стрелков Игорь Иванович shares a video of former Ukrainian President Yanukovych criticizing Ukraine's past EU/NATO aspirations, which UAF can use to highlight past mistakes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports on attending a meeting about the "eRecovery" program, an adaptive response for post-conflict reconstruction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Alex Parker Returns and Оперативний ЗСУ report Erdogan stated Putin and Zelensky are not ready for a meeting, which UAF can use to highlight the ongoing diplomatic stalemate. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны reports NATO paid $2 billion for US weapons to Ukraine, citing Rutte, which UAF can use to highlight international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports five families from Russia and five from Ukraine will reunite, which UAF can use to highlight humanitarian efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video of a Ukrainian paratrooper appealing for donations of a DJI Mavic 3 drone for reconnaissance, highlighting adaptive public support for critical equipment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Legal Actions: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the case of a terrorist attack in Odesa has been handed to court. Офіс Генерального прокурора also reports on special prosecution countering crimes related to budget funds and military property theft, introduces a portal to protect businesses, and reports on investigations into murder and cruel treatment of civilians during the occupation of Bucha. The "StopTisk" platform for business protection officially launched in Ukraine, demonstrating an adaptive legal and governance response.
  • NEW: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports uncovering a scheme to illegally seize over 11 hectares of land on Zhukov Island in Kyiv, demonstrating adaptive internal anti-corruption efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Veteran Support Initiative: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 conducting a veteran survey shows an adaptive approach to address soldier welfare and reintegration needs, alongside reporting on civilian infrastructure support from international partners and community strengthening efforts. Президентська бригада ЗСУ post on skilled drivers highlights adaptive recognition of critical support roles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Air Force Commendation: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts commendations for Ukrainian Air Force personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: UAF is modifying HMMWV vehicles with anti-drone mesh protection and improved armor, an adaptation to enhance survivability against current threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Finland will remove the swastika from its Air Force flags, an adaptation for NATO integration and alliance cohesion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• RF:
  • Critical Fuel Shortages in Luhansk, with Crowdfunded Supplements, and now an Oil Spill, and dirt bikes for tactical logistics, and crowdfunding for UAZ vans: Visually confirmed "gasoline collapse" in occupied Luhansk represents a critical logistical vulnerability. The reliance on crowdfunding for the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment highlights shortfalls in formal logistical channels. The oil spill in the Black Sea presents an additional environmental and potential logistical challenge. UAF satellite images of destroyed pumping stations at Unecha NPS directly confirm a successful UAF strike on RF oil logistics infrastructure. The minefield fatalities in Kursk also imply defensive efforts that consume resources. Два майора's promotion of the UAVheli SKY-TRUCK suggests a new, heavy-lift aerial logistical capability. Поддубный's report of FPV drones destroying supply vehicles in Dnipropetrovsk border region indicates ongoing logistical attrition.
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 promotes the use of dirt bikes for VDV logistics and supply, indicating an adaptation for tactical sustainment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad shares a video of crowdfunding for a UAZ van, noting its age and condition, for military use, indicating continued reliance on public support for logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Long-Term Energy Security (New Strategic Agreements): The signing of the "Power of Siberia-2" memorandum and 22 cooperation documents provides RF with significant long-term energy security and diversified markets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Russia and Turkey tested a mechanism where Gazprom payments for gas will remain in Turkey, to be used for the Akkuyu NPP, indicating a mechanism to secure long-term energy projects outside Western financial systems. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Domestic Production and Innovation: TASS showcasing strike and reconnaissance UAVs produced in the Far East indicates ongoing domestic production and innovation. Два майора's video of "Belarusian drone delivery" might imply external logistical support. Fighterbomber shared images of camouflage options for the Su-34E, indicating continued investment in air asset procurement. WarGonzo's video showcasing unmanned systems at 'Vostochny Briz 2023' highlights ongoing military R&D. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ASTRA reports the number of North Korean military personnel who died in Ukraine is around 2,000, citing Yonhap via South Korean intelligence, implying the need for sustained external personnel support from DPRK. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF:
  • Civilian Infrastructure Under Attack (Lethal Outcomes, with energy reconnaissance concern, and widespread damage, and winter preparations): RF's continued drone and KAB strikes impact civilian infrastructure, requiring sustained UAF efforts for repair and resilience. Civilians sheltering in Kyiv metro highlight the impact on daily life. BUtusov Plus report on water scarcity in Donetsk highlights resource challenges. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reporting completion of initial recovery work.
  • NEW: Zaporizhzhia Oblast (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦) reports 80% completion of winter preparations, including protecting transformer substations and decentralized energy facilities, highlighting proactive sustainment efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • US Explosives Reserves: The NYT report on a "TNT crisis" in the US indicates that external support for Ukraine is straining the DIB of key allies, which could impact the long-term sustainment of munitions for UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Personnel Welfare and Accountability: The missing soldier from a Dnipro hospital highlights challenges in personnel tracking and welfare, though now resolved. The Odesa terror case being referred to court shows a commitment to legal accountability. Офіс Генерального прокурора also reports on special prosecution countering crimes related to budget funds and military property theft, indicating internal resource challenges. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports on new comfortable buses received from international partners. The "Rubizh" NGU brigade fundraising indicates resource requirements. STERNENKO's report on FPV drone procurement indicates reliance on public support for critical equipment, with current donations noted as insufficient. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" highlights that "the war continues, but fundraising is stalled!", indicating a constraint on public support for critical resources.
  • NEW: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими reports meetings with families of the 44th Separate Mechanized Brigade and the 71st Separate Jaeger Brigade, indicating ongoing support for POW families. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: РБК-Україна supports a fundraising effort for vehicles for the 153rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, indicating ongoing resource needs for military transport. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video of a severely injured soldier requesting euthanasia from comrades, highlighting the severe human cost and the medical support burden. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports villagers helped an ex-serviceman send children to school, highlighting societal support but also individual hardships. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: UAF is modifying HMMWV vehicles with anti-drone mesh protection and improved armor, indicating a sustained effort to enhance existing assets for front-line use, requiring material and skilled labor. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports uncovering a scheme to illegally seize over 11 hectares of land on Zhukov Island in Kyiv, highlighting internal challenges in land management and corruption. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video of a Ukrainian paratrooper appealing for donations of a DJI Mavic 3 drone for reconnaissance, indicating reliance on public support for critical ISR assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

• RF:
  • Centralized Strategic Direction with Adaptive Tactical Implementation and IO Integration, and Counter-UAS C2, and active internal espionage, and multinational exercise C2: The synchronized drone attacks across multiple Ukrainian oblasts and aggressive ground claims demonstrate effective C2. Rapid dissemination of strike claims on RF channels further demonstrates effective C2 and IO integration. The reported encirclement of UAF 80th AAB and advances near Kozacha Lopan and Moskovka, if confirmed, would highlight effective operational C2. The thwarting of the Izhevsk terror attack demonstrates effective internal security C2. Colonelcassad's video on FPV counter-drone operations indicates effective tactical C2 for specialized counter-UAS units. MoD Russia claims of Grad MLRS use and Два майора's artillery video suggest coordinated indirect fire support. TASS showcasing new UAVs and Два майора promoting the UAVheli SKY-TRUCK indicates DIB C2 effectiveness. The widespread ground assaults reported by UAF General Staff demonstrate RF's ability to coordinate operations across a broad front. Heavy IO promotion of specific units indicates centralized messaging. The ban on filming drone attacks in Mari El points to effective C2 for information control. The use of Akhmat FPV drones in Sumy direction by Kadyrov_95 indicates effective C2 of specialized units. Poddubny's report of intense aerial traffic and targeted drone strikes on Ukrainian artillery and supply vehicles in Dnipropetrovsk border region indicates effective tactical C2. RF claims of destroying UAF weapons depots in Pokrovske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicate effective C2 for target acquisition and strike execution. The planned Putin-Kim meeting at a parade and reception, with continued discussions, signals effective high-level diplomatic C2.
  • NEW: SBU exposing an FSB agent group that was adjusting Russian fire on Kherson defenders, while a setback for RF, also highlights RF's sustained C2 for internal espionage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: MoD Russia's "Interaction 2025" exercise coverage demonstrates effective C2 for multinational military drills. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Kotsnews's video on nationalism disguised as patriotism suggests centralized messaging to manage internal social tensions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Рыбарь posting videos of "underage terrorists" demonstrates C2 effectiveness in internal security and IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad's civil defense instructions for Sevastopol indicate C2 for public safety in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Pakistan "resolutely determined" to strengthen ties with Russia, and Putin stating lowered trade is a "good signal to work", indicating effective diplomatic C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Alex Parker Returns and Оперативний ЗСУ report Erdogan stated Putin and Zelensky are not ready for a meeting, indicating effective diplomatic C2 for managing international narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Qatar supports a potential Russia-Ukraine summit but is not organizing it, indicating effective diplomatic C2 for managing international relations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Russia and Turkey tested a mechanism where Gazprom payments for gas will remain in Turkey, to be used for the Akkuyu NPP, indicating effective C2 for circumventing sanctions in energy deals. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Logistical C2 Failure in LPR, mitigated by informal channels, and new oil spill requiring management, and tactical logistics adaptation: The "gasoline collapse" in Luhansk points to a significant failure in logistical C2. However, leveraging crowdfunded civilian support indicates an adaptive, albeit informal, C2 mechanism. The Black Sea oil spill will test RF's C2 for environmental crisis management.
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 promoting the use of dirt bikes by VDV for tactical mobility and supply indicates an adaptive, decentralized approach to logistical C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad shares a video of crowdfunding for a UAZ van, indicating a decentralized C2 for logistical procurement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF:
  • Decentralized Tactical Execution with Centralized Strategic Oversight, and Proactive Energy Infrastructure Alerting, and High Volume Air Defense Coordination, and Counter-Espionage: The rapid and specific air raid alerts issued by UAF military administrations and channels (now including active PPO over Left Bank and drones over central Kyiv, with a confirmed explosion, drone debris in Dniprovskyi district impacting a kindergarten, and new threats to Vasylkiv, Borova, Bila Tserkva, and UAV movements across multiple oblasts, with a new specific course to Zhytomyr/Ozerne, and a new threat to Sumy district, and a new threat of strike UAVs for Chernihiv Oblast, and an enemy UAV in western Sumy Oblast, and tactical aviation on Northern direction) indicate effective C2 for real-time air defense responses. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS's video of low-altitude drones over Kyiv and public sheltering in the metro, along with immediate reporting, demonstrates effective C2 for civil defense. Север.Реалии's immediate reporting on Rostov-on-Don damage and casualties as a UAF-aligned source demonstrates effective C2 and information flow for counter-IO. Оперативний ЗСУ reporting a missing soldier who was found, and Офіс Генерального прокурора on the Odesa terror case and theft of military property, and Bucha war crimes, shows effective C2 for internal affairs. Оперативний ЗСУ reporting on women deputies travelling abroad demonstrates effective communication of policy changes. Immediate reporting of fast-moving targets over Sumy and UAVs over Honcharivske, and KAB launches into Donbas and Sumy regions, demonstrates effective real-time C2 for air defense. UAF General Staff's comprehensive daily reporting of ground clashes across all axes indicates strong C2 for battlefield awareness. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України showcasing FPV drone operations highlights effective tactical C2 for specialized units. Оперативний ЗСУ sharing satellite images of Unecha NPS destruction demonstrates effective C2 for BDA and IO. UAF General Staff and Оперативний ЗСУ confirming and publicizing the clearing of Udachne highlights effective tactical C2 for ground operations. STERNENKO's reports on FPV drone procurement indicates effective C2 for leveraging public support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of 55th Separate Artillery Brigade detecting and destroying enemy UAV launch points, showing effective tactical C2. ОТУ "Харків" provides effective C2 for situational reporting. The 93rd Brigade's successful destruction of a logistics bridge and shelter using ground robotic systems and FPV drones demonstrates effective tactical C2 for innovative, multi-domain operations. The launching of the "StopTisk" platform for business protection in Ukraine shows effective C2 for legal and governance initiatives.
  • NEW: SBU exposing an FSB agent group that was adjusting Russian fire on Kherson defenders demonstrates highly effective counter-intelligence C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Zaporizhzhia Oblast (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦) proactively preparing energy infrastructure for winter indicates effective strategic and operational C2 for critical resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: UAF channels confirming the arrest and remand of the Parubiy murder suspect demonstrate effective C2 for legal processes and internal security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports uncovering a scheme to illegally seize over 11 hectares of land on Zhukov Island in Kyiv, demonstrating effective C2 for internal anti-corruption efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Олександр Вілкул showcases a new security and patriotic education lyceum in Kryvyi Rih, indicating effective C2 for long-term national security development. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими reports meetings with families of the 44th Separate Mechanized Brigade and the 71st Separate Jaeger Brigade, indicating effective C2 for addressing soldier welfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: РБК-Україна supports a fundraising effort for vehicles for the 153rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, indicating effective C2 for public procurement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports on attending a meeting about the "eRecovery" program, indicating effective C2 for post-conflict reconstruction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video of a Ukrainian paratrooper appealing for donations of a DJI Mavic 3 drone for reconnaissance, highlighting effective C2 for public fundraising for military assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: UAF is modifying HMMWV vehicles with anti-drone mesh protection and improved armor, indicating effective C2 for tactical adaptations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Naval Forces Command and Control: The monitoring of the RF oil spill in the Black Sea demonstrates UAF Naval Forces' C2 for environmental and maritime domain awareness. РБК-Україна showcasing a "Magura" naval drone at the MFA indicates effective C2 for promoting advanced naval capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

• Defensive Posture with Localized Offensive Capabilities and High Attrition Rate Against RF, managing high volume drone attacks, and enhancing winter resilience, and counter-espionage: UAF maintains a high state of readiness for air defense, particularly in Kyiv Oblast (new threats to Kyiv, Vasylkiv, Borova, Bila Tserkva, and active air defense engagement on Left Bank and over central Kyiv, with a confirmed explosion and drone debris in Dniprovskyi district impacting a kindergarten, with UAVs traversing multiple oblasts, and reconnaissance drones probing PPO, with a specific UAV course reported to Zhytomyr/Ozerne, and a new threat to Sumy district, and new threat of strike UAVs for Chernihiv Oblast, and an enemy UAV in western Sumy Oblast, and tactical aviation on Northern direction). UAF forces are actively engaged in defending key positions on the eastern front (Pokrovsk axis) and Zaporizhzhia front. UAF also demonstrates continued offensive capability through drone attacks on RF territory (Rostov-on-Don, now with confirmed damage and casualties, and Unecha NPS) and successful local clearances like Udachne. TASS (Pushilin) claiming UAF is unsuccessfully attempting counter-attacks west of Krasnoarmiysk implicitly confirms UAF active defensive and counter-offensive actions in the area. The public reporting of a missing soldier from a Dnipro hospital who has been found indicates ongoing personnel management and welfare considerations. UAF General Staff reports of repelling 3 RF assaults in Kherson and 11 in Kursk/Sumy directions, and ongoing clashes across multiple axes, demonstrate a robust defensive posture. FPV drone operations by the 81st brigade highlight specialized capabilities. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's recruitment drive based on familial duty suggests a focus on sustained readiness. STERNENKO's report on FPV drone procurement indicates sustained efforts to enhance tactical capabilities, though donations are insufficient. ОТУ "Харків" providing a morning situation report shows ongoing readiness. The 93rd Brigade's successful destruction of a logistics bridge and shelter with ground robotic systems and FPV drones demonstrates high readiness and innovative tactical capabilities for interdiction.
• NEW: SBU exposing an FSB agent group that was adjusting Russian fire on Kherson defenders demonstrates high readiness and effectiveness in counter-espionage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• NEW: Zaporizhzhia Oblast (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦) reports 80% completion of winter preparations, including protecting transformer substations and decentralized energy facilities, highlighting a proactive and resilient posture for future operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• NEW: Олександр Вілкул showcases a new security and patriotic education lyceum in Kryvyi Rih, indicating long-term readiness building. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• NEW: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими reports meetings with families of the 44th Separate Mechanized Brigade and the 71st Separate Jaeger Brigade, indicating proactive soldier welfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• NEW: РБК-Україна supports a fundraising effort for vehicles for the 153rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, indicating ongoing logistical readiness efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video of a Ukrainian paratrooper appealing for donations of a DJI Mavic 3 drone for reconnaissance, indicating continued reliance on public support for critical readiness assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• NEW: UAF is modifying HMMWV vehicles with anti-drone mesh protection and improved armor, demonstrating adaptive readiness to counter current threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• High Readiness for Air Defense: Multiple UAF sources reporting real-time air raid alerts across Kyiv and other oblasts, and tracking UAVs, indicates high readiness of UAF air defense systems and personnel for rapid response, with confirmed active response over Kyiv. Immediate reporting of fast-moving targets over Sumy and UAVs over Honcharivske, and KAB launches into Donbas and Sumy regions, further confirms high readiness. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of 55th Separate Artillery Brigade detecting and destroying enemy UAV launch points, showing successful counter-UAV readiness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Adaptive and Technologically Proficient: UAF's continued ability to conduct deep strikes into RF territory (Rostov-on-Don, now with confirmed damage and casualties, and Unecha NPS), its rapid response to RF ground claims (Pokrovsk), and successful tactical offensive operations (Udachne) demonstrate adaptive and technologically proficient offensive and defensive capabilities. STERNENKO's post about "optical fiber drones" hints at adaptive technological development for ISR or strike, and his post on school security drones suggests an adaptive approach to technology adoption. РБК-Україна showcasing a "Magura" naval drone highlights indigenous technological advancements. The 93rd Brigade's use of ground robotic systems and FPV drones to destroy a logistics bridge and shelter demonstrates high tactical adaptability and proficiency in integrating modern technologies for battlefield effects. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes:
  • Successful Deep Strike on Rostov-on-Don with Confirmed Damage and Casualties: Север.Реалії reports two multi-story buildings damaged and four injured in Rostov-on-Don following UAF drone strikes. This is a significant tactical success. Satellite images of destroyed pumping stations at Unecha NPS represent another significant tactical success in targeting RF logistics and infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Effective Air Defense in Kyiv: Vitaliy Klychko and РБК-Україна report active PPO working on the Left Bank of Kyiv, and drones are now over central Kyiv, with a confirmed explosion, indicating successful real-time engagement and mitigation of RF drone threats. Drone debris falling in Dniprovskyi district, impacting a kindergarten, indicates successful interception. The tracking of UAVs across multiple oblasts demonstrates effective ISR. The reporting of a fast-moving target over Sumy Oblast and UAV course on Honcharivske, combined with active air defense, reflects ongoing success. UAF successfully repelled 11 RF assaults in Kursk and Sumy directions, highlighting strong border defense. Николаевский Ванёк's report of "remainder of morning mopeds" suggests successful interception. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of 55th Separate Artillery Brigade detecting and destroying enemy UAV launch points, showing successful counter-UAV operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Defense of Pokrovsk Axis and Liberation of Udachne: TASS (Pushilin) claiming UAF is unsuccessfully attempting counter-attacks west of Krasnoarmiysk implicitly confirms UAF defensive successes. UAF General Staff reporting of repelling 3 RF assaults in Kherson direction and continued clashes across multiple axes, indicates successful defensive operations. UAF General Staff and Оперативний ЗСУ confirming the clearing of Udachne in Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk direction) and raising the Ukrainian flag is a significant local offensive success. The 93rd Brigade "Kholodny Yar" Alter Ego company's destruction of an RF logistics bridge and shelter using drones is a tactical success in interdiction and reducing enemy freedom of maneuver. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Exploitable RF Logistical Failure: The visually confirmed "gasoline collapse" in Luhansk remains a significant success in identifying a critical RF vulnerability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Proactive Energy Infrastructure Threat Warning and Winter Preparations: The warning from "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" about RF reconnaissance of energy facilities (now confirmed to be 'Gerbera' drones probing PPO) is a success in anticipatory intelligence.
  • NEW: Zaporizhzhia Oblast (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦) reports 80% completion of winter preparations, including protection of transformer substations and decentralized energy facilities, indicating proactive and effective resilience efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Security and Accountability: Офіс Генерального прокурора reporting the Odesa terror case to court and crimes related to budget funds and military property theft, and Bucha war crimes, demonstrates successful law enforcement. The quick finding of the missing soldier from Dnipro indicates effective personnel management. Introduction of the portal to protect businesses is a positive step. The confession of the suspect in the Parubiy murder, even with its complex narrative, represents a success in legal proceedings, further reinforced by his 60-day remand without bail.
  • NEW: SBU exposing an FSB agent group that was adjusting Russian fire on Kherson defenders is a significant counter-intelligence success. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports uncovering a scheme to illegally seize over 11 hectares of land on Zhukov Island in Kyiv, demonstrating successful anti-corruption efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Олександр Вілкул showcases a new security and patriotic education lyceum in Kryvyi Rih, indicating successful long-term security development. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими reports meetings with families of the 44th Separate Mechanized Brigade and the 71st Separate Jaeger Brigade, demonstrating successful soldier welfare efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports on attending a meeting about the "eRecovery" program, indicating successful post-conflict reconstruction efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Veteran Support Initiatives: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 conducting a veteran survey demonstrates successful implementation of support programs, alongside securing international partner support and completing initial recovery. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Public Procurement of Drones: STERNENKO's report of +310 FPV drones purchased in the last day via public support demonstrates successful leveraging of civilian resources. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • HMMWV Modifications: UAF successfully modifying HMMWV vehicles with anti-drone mesh and improved armor is a tactical success in enhancing survivability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NATO Integration Efforts: Finland removing the swastika from its Air Force flags is a symbolic success for NATO integration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Setbacks:
  • Massed Drone/Missile Attacks on Kyiv (Expanded, with New Threats to Kyiv, Vasylkiv, Borova, Bila Tserkva, and drones over central Kyiv): RF's continued multi-domain deep strikes, particularly the renewed focus on Kyiv Oblast, indicate that UAF air defense systems remain under significant pressure. Despite active air defense, drones over central Kyiv and UAVs traversing multiple oblasts indicate some penetration and successful evasion. A confirmed explosion in Kyiv and drone debris in Dniprovskyi district (impacting a kindergarten) are direct setbacks. The prolonged attack on Kyiv (almost three hours) indicates a sustained and challenging threat. Intelligence monitors' assessment that these are reconnaissance drones probing PPO indicates a tactical setback in pre-empting this form of ISR. Civilians sheltering in Kyiv metro indicates disruption. NEW: A new threat of strike UAVs from the northeast for Chernihiv Oblast indicates an expanded threat axis. NEW: An enemy UAV, likely reconnaissance, in western Sumy Oblast indicates successful RF ISR. NEW: Activity of enemy tactical aviation on the northern direction indicates continued RF air presence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Ground Aggression in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts: RF claims of encircling UAF 80th AAB elements near Sadky in Sumy, and active advances near Kozacha Lopan and dislodgement in Moskovka in Kharkiv Oblast, and destruction of Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage groups, represent potential tactical setbacks. RF MoD claims of Grad MLRS use in Kharkiv direction and Два майора's artillery video on Zaporizhzhia front indicates continued pressure. RF reports of airstrikes on Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, and intense drone activity targeting artillery/supply vehicles in Dnipropetrovsk border region indicate continued RF pressure. ASTRA reports 3 injured in Kharkiv Oblast due to shelling. RF claims of destroying UAF weapons depots in Pokrovske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, indicate potential logistical setbacks. RF MoD claim of liberating Fedorivka in DNR is a claimed setback for UAF. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - RF claims)
  • US Explosives Shortage (Indirect Setback): The reported "TNT crisis" in the US could become a significant constraint on the long-term supply of critical munitions to UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Reconnaissance of Energy Facilities: The confirmed RF reconnaissance of energy facilities (with 'Gerbera' drones probing PPO) is a setback, as it indicates a renewed, focused threat to critical infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • North Korean Casualties in Ukraine: While a setback for RF if true, the report of 2000 North Korean military personnel deaths in Ukraine highlights a potential setback for UAF in facing external military support for RF. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
  • Insufficient Donations for Drones: STERNENKO reporting insufficient donations for "rusoriz" drones indicates a potential constraint on the public's ability to sustain FPV drone procurement. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" highlighting stalled fundraising reinforces this concern. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF "Mole" in UAF Repair Base: SBU uncovering a Russian "mole" on a UAF repair base in Donetsk is a setback in counterintelligence and internal security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • High Fire Danger in Kharkiv Oblast: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports high fire danger, posing an environmental setback. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Requirements:
  • Enhanced Air Defense Systems (Especially SHORAD/Counter-UAS, with layered defense for energy, capable of high volume engagements, and winter protection): The continued massed RF drone attacks on Kyiv (Brovary, and new threats to Kyiv, Vasylkiv, Borova, Bila Tserkva, with a confirmed explosion, drone debris in Dniprovskyi district impacting a kindergarten, with active air defense engagement, and UAVs traversing multiple oblasts, and reconnaissance drones probing PPO, with a specific UAV course reported to Zhytomyr/Ozerne, and a new threat to Sumy district, and a new threat of strike UAVs for Chernihiv Oblast, and an enemy UAV in western Sumy Oblast, and tactical aviation on Northern direction) necessitate additional advanced air defense systems. Robust, layered air defense is critically required for energy and industrial sites, and now for Kyiv city center, especially against reconnaissance drones. The constant threat of fast-moving targets over Sumy and UAVs over Honcharivske reinforce the need. UAF fundraising efforts by the "Rubizh" NGU brigade and РБК-Україна for the 153rd Separate Mechanized Brigade suggest a requirement for replacement equipment. STERNENKO's report of FPV drone procurement shows a continuing requirement for such systems, with current donations insufficient. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video of a Ukrainian paratrooper appealing for donations of a DJI Mavic 3 drone for reconnaissance, indicating a high requirement for ISR drones. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Zaporizhzhia Oblast's (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦) winter preparations, including protection of transformer substations and decentralized energy generation facilities, highlight a requirement for specialized materials and engineering for critical infrastructure hardening. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Long-Range Strike Capabilities (Counter-Logistics and Offensive Deterrence): The confirmed RF fuel crisis in Luhansk creates an urgent requirement for long-range precision strike capabilities. The success of UAF drone strikes on Rostov-on-Don and Unecha NPS demonstrates the ongoing need for these capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Anti-EW Capabilities: The demonstrated RF strategic GPS jamming capability necessitates enhanced anti-EW capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Improved SIGINT/OSINT for RF IO and Battlefield Analysis: The rapid, obscured, and often misleading videos from RF channels, RF claims of advances and encirclements (Sumy, Kharkiv, Pokrovsk, Krasnolimansk, Fedorivka), and the new anti-Western narrative from Putin-Xi meetings and internal narratives require enhanced SIGINT and OSINT capabilities. Further OSINT is needed for verification of RF claims. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Personnel Tracking and Welfare Systems: The previously missing soldier from Dnipro hospital highlights a requirement for robust and real-time personnel tracking and welfare systems. Президентська бригада ЗСУ's post highlighting the importance of skilled drivers points to a requirement for specialized personnel. The family-focused recruitment drive suggests a need for sustained personnel influx.
  • NEW: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими reports meetings with families of the 44th Separate Mechanized Brigade and the 71st Separate Jaeger Brigade, highlighting a requirement for ongoing POW support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video of a severely injured soldier requesting euthanasia from comrades, highlighting the critical requirement for advanced medical evacuation and support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Олександр Вілкул showcases a new security and patriotic education lyceum in Kryvyi Rih, indicating a long-term requirement for human capital development for national security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Counter-Espionage Capabilities: The SBU uncovering a Russian "mole" on a UAF repair base in Donetsk highlights a requirement for enhanced counter-espionage and internal security measures. NEW: The SBU exposing an FSB agent group that was adjusting Russian fire on Kherson defenders further emphasizes the critical requirement for robust counter-espionage capabilities across all operational areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Enhanced Vehicle Survivability: UAF modifying HMMWV vehicles with anti-drone mesh and improved armor highlights a requirement for continuous improvement in vehicle protection against evolving threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Constraints:
  • Resource Strain from Multi-Front Aerial Defense, now including Energy/Industrial Infrastructure and High Volume Attacks in Kyiv: RF's strategy of launching drones across multiple oblasts simultaneously, particularly the renewed focus on Kyiv Oblast, places a significant strain on UAF air defense resources. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Protection of Civilian Infrastructure: The damage in Rostov-on-Don from UAF drone strikes highlights the challenge of avoiding civilian casualties. Civilians sheltering in Kyiv metro highlight the impact of constant threats. BUtusov Plus's report of water scarcity in Donetsk highlights civilian distress. ASTRA reports 3 injured in Kharkiv Oblast. Drone debris impacting a kindergarten in Kyiv highlights the indiscriminate nature of drone warfare. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Limited Offensive Resources for Exploitation: While RF's fuel crisis is an priority, UAF may be constrained by available long-range precision strike assets to fully exploit this vulnerability. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
  • Long-Term Munitions Supply: The reported "TNT crisis" in the US could become a significant constraint on the long-term supply of critical munitions to UAF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Personnel Attrition and Welfare: The ongoing conflict leads to personnel attrition. The missing soldier from Dnipro highlights the need for continued focus on personnel welfare. The family-focused recruitment drive suggests a need for sustained personnel influx. The video of the severely injured soldier requesting euthanasia highlights severe impacts on personnel welfare. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Analytical Judgment)
  • Internal Security and Corruption: The reports from Офіс Генерального прокурора regarding crimes related to budget funds and military property theft, and Bucha war crimes, highlight ongoing internal challenges. NEW: The scheme to illegally seize land on Zhukov Island in Kyiv highlights persistent corruption issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Dependence on Public Donations for Drones: STERNENKO reporting insufficient donations for FPV drones indicates a constraint on the reliable and scalable procurement of tactical drones. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" highlights that "the war continues, but fundraising is stalled!", reinforcing this critical constraint. NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video of a Ukrainian paratrooper appealing for donations of a DJI Mavic 3 drone for reconnaissance, reinforcing this constraint. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • High Fire Danger in Kharkiv Oblast: Oleg Sinegubov, Governor of Kharkiv Oblast, reports a high fire danger, which can strain resources for fire suppression and impact military operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF Propaganda:
  • Amplification of Ground Offensive Success and Civilian Support: RF will heavily amplify claims of gains and urban combat in Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk), new encirclement claims in Sumy, advances in Kharkiv Oblast (Kozacha Lopan, Moskovka seizure, and destruction of UAF reconnaissance/sabotage groups), and the "liberation" of Fedorivka. "Два майора" posts video about fundraising efforts, promoting public support. TASS (Pushilin) will amplify claims of UAF unsuccessfully counter-attacking west of Krasnoarmiysk. TASS (Marochko) will amplify claims of advances near Kozacha Lopan. RF MoD will amplify claims of Grad MLRS use against UAF in Kharkiv direction. Два майора will amplify artillery strikes on Zaporizhzhia front. Kotsnews video of camouflaged positions is likely for internal consumption. Старше Эдды and Kotsnews are heavily promoting the 144th Motorized Rifle Division's advances in Krasnolimansk. Народная милиция ДНР's video claiming destruction of 3 AFU armored vehicles will be used to project combat effectiveness. Kadyrov_95 claims Akhmat FPV drones destroyed a UAF reactive launcher. Poddubny reports of successful drone strikes on Ukrainian artillery and supply vehicles will be amplified. Воин DV posts drone footage with RF soldiers in Moskovka, Kharkiv Oblast. Дневник Десантника claims RF strikes destroyed UAF weapons depots in Pokrovske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Басурин о главном posts a video claiming UAF faked a village capture in Dnipropetrovsk.
  • NEW: MoD Russia will promote the "Interaction 2025" exercise to project military strength and CSTO alliance cohesion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 will use videos promoting dirt bikes for VDV logistics to project adaptability and ingenuity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video showing drone footage of an artillery strike on what are presumed to be enemy positions, suggesting RF BDA and effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Amplification of Strike Effectiveness & Blame Attribution: RF will amplify BDA from drone attacks in Ukraine (e.g., Brovary, Sumy with KABs, Donbas region with KABs), including claims of a confirmed explosion in Kyiv and drone debris in Dniprovskyi district (impacting a kindergarten), and the threat to Bila Tserkva, and the new threat to Chernihiv and Sumy. RF will likely downplay the damage and casualties from UAF drone strikes in Rostov-on-Don. TASS showcasing new UAVs and Два майора promoting the UAVheli SKY-TRUCK is propaganda about DIB strength. Kotsnews video of night raid on Izmail claiming hits will be used to demonstrate strike effectiveness. TASS reports on minefield fatalities in Kursk, confirmed as civilians, which will be framed to highlight dangers from Ukrainian actions. ASTRA reporting on the ban on filming drone attacks in Mari El suggests RF's attempt to control public narrative. Fighterbomber's video of a LMR strike on a UAV control point is for IO. RF sources (Операция Z) are actively posting videos claiming "another fail of Ukrainian PVO" in response to drones over Kyiv. TASS reports Slovak PM Fico stated his country reacts very harshly to UAF strikes on oil pipelines. Putin explicitly states RF will strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure in response to UAF actions. Putin's statement (via Два майора) explicitly confirming that Russia tolerated Ukrainian strikes on its energy infrastructure for a long time but has now started to respond seriously will be heavily amplified to justify retaliatory strikes.
  • NEW: RF will leverage the SBU exposure of an FSB agent group in Kherson to claim effective espionage and targeting, while attempting to frame the agents as patriots. ASTRA's report on a POW confession will be used to portray UAF personnel as war criminals and highlight their desire for exchange. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad's civil defense instructions for Sevastopol civilians will be used to show public safety efforts in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Dismissal of US Diplomatic Efforts & Highlighting External Military-Industrial Ties, with Anti-Western/Historical Revisionist Narrative and Long-Term Energy Security, and additional bilateral engagements, and framing Western "war preparations": The Putin-Xi Jinping meeting and the signing of the Power of Siberia-2 memorandum and 22 cooperation documents will be heavily used to project strong diplomatic alliances. ASTRA and Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны will heavily promote the "gas alliance". Kotsnews's "warning shot" article for Trump and Ursula will attempt to influence international political discourse. China's visa-free regime for Russians will be promoted. TASS reporting Peskov's discussion of a Putin-Kim meeting, now with Kim's arrival in Beijing, will signal expanded influence. RF recognizing RUSI as "undesirable" is a propaganda move. TASS will amplify US Senator Mike Lee's statements regarding NATO. Janus Putkonen's post on the multipolar world reinforces the geopolitical narrative. WarGonzo's video on Transnistria's 35th anniversary will promote separatist narratives. Kadyrov_95 promoting the "Trump as Chechen" video is an IO play. Басурин о главном's report on Scott Ritter's visit serves to legitimize RF positions. Putin's meeting with Slovak PM Fico, and Fico's stated intent to relay Russia's message to the EU, and his criticism of the EU as a "frog at the bottom of a well", will be leveraged to demonstrate diplomatic engagement and potential for fracturing EU unity. Putin claims RF "never attacked" anyone. TASS publishes photos from the North Korean newspaper "Rodong Sinmun" dedicating an issue to Kim Jong Un's meeting with families of military personnel who died "liberating Kursk Oblast," which is a clear attempt at historical revisionism or fabrication, and a propaganda effort to connect DPRK's past with current RF narratives.
  • NEW: Воин DV's report on the French Ministry of Health ordering "preparation for war" will be heavily amplified to frame Western nations as escalating the conflict and preparing for direct confrontation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad and НгП раZVедка are actively exploiting the Parubiy murder and suspect's confession to demonize the Ukrainian political leadership, framing them as "co-conspirators to bloody massacres" or the target of "revenge on Ukrainian authorities." This is a significant hybrid IO tactic. Alex Parker Returns continues this exploitation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Gazprom CEO Miller stated Europe underestimates the gas storage problem for winter, which will be used to highlight European vulnerabilities and energy dependence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports BRICS countries will create a common list of traditional values, used to project an alternative, ideologically aligned international bloc. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны promotes "Western dissidents" fleeing to Russia for traditional values. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Pakistan is "resolutely determined" to strengthen ties with Russia, and Putin stating lowered trade is a "good signal to work", indicating IO on new alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Рыбарь posts a video about US Navy and Air Force operations in South America, focusing on drug interdiction, with a caption suggesting monitoring of "potential American invasion of Venezuela", an IO attempt to frame US as aggressive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Alex Parker Returns amplifies an old Facebook post from a Ukrainian soldier claiming Bakhmut was not encircled, likely to highlight perceived UAF propaganda. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Рыбарь posts a graphic titled "Indian-American War," which will be used for anti-Western geopolitical IO. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ASTRA reports a suspected war criminal was appointed minister, which RF will likely downplay or spin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports Qatar supports a potential Russia-Ukraine summit but is not organizing it, indicating IO to portray international support for dialogue involving RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны reports NATO paid $2 billion for US weapons to Ukraine, citing Rutte, which RF will likely use to highlight Western involvement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports five families from Russia and five from Ukraine will reunite with their relatives, indicating IO on humanitarian efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Russia and Turkey tested a mechanism where Gazprom payments for gas will remain in Turkey, to be used for the Akkuyu NPP, indicating IO on bypassing Western sanctions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Alex Parker Returns reports Erdogan stated Putin and Zelensky are not ready for a meeting, which RF will leverage to show Ukraine's lack of readiness for peace talks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Stability Messaging: Sberbank's reporting on preventing large-scale theft attempts aims to project financial stability. The FSB's announcement of a thwarted terrorist attack on an OPK in Izhevsk will be used to showcase state competence. Басурин о главном's candid criticism of the Moscow medical system will likely generate significant public frustration. TASS highlighting iPhone defect due to RuStore absence could contribute to public frustration. TASS reports on 2 fatalities from a minefield in Kursk border area, confirmed as civilians, will likely cause public concern. Рыбарь's video of a physical altercation could fuel a sense of instability, as could his anti-migrant photo. The ban on filming drone attacks in Mari El indicates public sensitivity. The report of Tajiks beating a police officer could fuel nationalist sentiment. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники's video about relatives of deceased soldiers arguing over cemetery plots highlights profound social tensions. Новости Москвы reports on Moscow companies developing anonymous tracking technology, potentially raising privacy concerns. TASS reporting on record-breaking rental prices in Russian cities could be downplayed or framed as a sign of economic growth, but it could also expose underlying economic pressures and dissatisfaction if not carefully managed.
  • NEW: Глеб Никитин's posts on Arzamas development are internal IO to project economic and social stability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Kotsnews posts a video warning against nationalism disguised as patriotism, indicating RF's attempt to manage and control internal social tensions, likely in response to rising nationalist sentiment that could become counterproductive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Рыбарь posted videos of "underage terrorists" being detained and interrogated, likely for internal consumption to demonstrate state control and security effectiveness, particularly after the Izhevsk OPK incident. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Alex Parker Returns continues to exploit the Parubiy murder, portraying the suspect as a "people's avenger" and claiming his son died in Bakhmut, aiming to generate nationalist sentiment and demonize Ukrainian authorities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Новости Москвы shared non-military domestic content (mushroom picking, Moscow Zoo) demonstrating a capability to project normalcy and divert attention from the conflict for internal audiences, aiming to stabilize public sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad reports on social challenges faced by "heroes of the SMO," potentially an IO move to acknowledge and manage veteran welfare issues, or a genuine internal critique to prompt reform. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Басурин о главном posted infographics on cybersecurity scams and fake medical/educational resources, showing capability to conduct public awareness campaigns on domestic issues, potentially to counter internal vulnerabilities and maintain public trust. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports former head of RF Armed Forces communication planning department Ogloblin, sentenced for bribery, applied to participate in the "special operation" over 10 times but was rejected, indicating IO on internal accountability while attempting to portray eagerness for military service. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports villagers helped an ex-serviceman send children to school, indicating IO on community support for veterans. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Mash на Донбассе reports a "fake head" of the Urzuf administration was extorting money and tried to bribe investigators, indicating IO on anti-corruption efforts in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Стрелков Игорь Иванович shares a video of former Ukrainian President Yanukovych criticizing Ukraine's past EU/NATO aspirations, likely for IO to discredit past Ukrainian leadership. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video of children on a swing in occupied Melitopol, with a critical caption, likely for IO against RF occupation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF Counter-Propaganda:
  • Transparency of Aerial Threats and Civilian Impact, and Energy Infrastructure Warning, and Direct Refutation of RF Propaganda, with High Volume Interception Claims, and highlighting winter resilience: UAF channels providing real-time air raid alerts (including new threats to Kyiv, Vasylkiv, Borova, Bila Tserkva, and active air defense engagement over Left Bank and central Kyiv, with a confirmed explosion, drone debris in Dniprovskyi district impacting a kindergarten, and UAVs traversing multiple oblasts, and intelligence monitors' assessment of reconnaissance drones, and new threats to Chernihiv Oblast, and an enemy UAV in western Sumy Oblast, and tactical aviation on Northern direction) and reporting on civilian damage (3 injured in Kharkiv Oblast) demonstrates transparency. The warning about RF reconnaissance of energy facilities is crucial for proactive counter-IO. Север.Реалії's reporting on Rostov-on-Don damage and casualties is a powerful counter-narrative. UAF must continue to quickly refute RF claims of ground advances and encirclements (Sumy, Kharkiv, Pokrovsk, Moskovka, Krasnolimansk, Fedorivka). Publicize the number of repelled RF assaults (e.g., Kherson, Kursk/Sumy). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS's video of low-altitude drones over Kyiv and immediate reporting, along with civilians sheltering in the metro, highlights the human cost. Immediate UAF Air Force reports on fast-moving targets over Sumy and UAVs on Honcharivske are crucial for transparent public warnings. UAF General Staff reporting of repelled RF assaults provides direct refutation. Оперативний ЗСУ sharing satellite images of destroyed Unecha NPS pumping stations is a powerful counter-narrative. UAF will need to quickly refute RF claims of strikes on Izium and Izmail, and the claimed destruction of weapons depots in Pokrovske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. UAF General Staff and Оперативний ЗСУ publicizing the clearing of Udachne is strong counter-propaganda. UAF should emphasize RF IO's attempts to portray UAF air defense as a "fail." ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posts video of 55th Separate Artillery Brigade detecting and destroying enemy UAV launch points. Kharkiv OTU provides transparency. UAF channels (STERNENKO, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) are framing the Parubiy murder suspect's confession as personal revenge and denying Russian blackmail, a crucial counter-narrative to prevent RF from claiming responsibility or justification. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС's report of the 93rd Brigade destroying an RF logistics bridge and shelter should be amplified as a tactical success. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 sharing a video of public frustration about military operations could be used to demonstrate internal criticism is tolerated, and to draw parallels with RF's own internal dissent.
  • NEW: Zaporizhzhia Oblast (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦) reports on winter preparations for energy infrastructure to project resilience and effective governance in the face of ongoing attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video of a Ukrainian paratrooper appealing for donations of a DJI Mavic 3 drone for reconnaissance, which highlights the importance of public support and transparency. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports high fire danger in Kharkiv Oblast, providing transparent information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Exploitation of RF Logistical Failures: The visually confirmed "gasoline collapse" in Luhansk presents a significant opportunity for UAF information operations. RF's reliance on crowdfunded support also highlights logistical shortcomings. The RF oil spill in the Black Sea presents an opportunity for UAF to highlight RF's environmental negligence. The Unecha NPS destruction directly links to RF logistical failures. Minefield fatalities in Kursk, confirmed as civilians, can be framed as RF incompetence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Amplification of UAF Deep Strikes and Battlefield Successes, with careful narrative management, and highlighting counter-espionage: UAF must immediately amplify confirmed drone strikes on Rostov-on-Don (with confirmed damage and casualties) and Unecha NPS. Amplification of UAF forces repelling multiple RF assaults is critical. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України's video on FPV drones highlights tactical successes. STERNENKO's report on +310 FPV drones procured reinforces this. РБК-Україна showcasing a "Magura" naval drone amplifies indigenous capabilities. The completion of initial recovery work in Zaporizhzhia demonstrates resilience.
  • NEW: SBU exposing an FSB agent group that was adjusting Russian fire on Kherson defenders is a strong counter-intelligence and IO success that should be amplified to demonstrate UAF's effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: UAF modifying HMMWV vehicles with anti-drone mesh and improved armor should be highlighted to showcase adaptive and innovative defense efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Countering RF IO Tactics and Geopolitical Narrative, and addressing internal funding challenges: UAF must be prepared to rapidly counter RF's new IO tactics, and specifically address and refute allegations of UAF-caused civilian casualties. UAF needs to actively counter the RF narrative on TCC abuses. UAF needs to prepare robust counter-narratives to RF's anti-Western geopolitical framing. Reinforce narratives of soldier welfare (e.g., finding of missing soldier, meetings with POW families, support for veterans, support for injured soldiers), Ukrainian military education (Kryvyi Rih lyceum), and transparent legal actions (including anti-theft operations, the new portal to protect businesses - "StopTisk" platform, and Bucha war crimes investigations, and the Urzuf corruption case, and the suspected war criminal appointment). Leverage stories of patriotic recruitment (e.g., "Hedgehog" soldier). Highlight RF's internal weaknesses (e.g., medical system failures, minefield fatalities, internal corruption, ethnic tensions like Shchelkovo police assault, declining first-grader numbers, cemetery plot disputes, migrant issues, rising rental prices) and internal security threats (Izhevsk terror plot, surveillance tech development, lack of RuStore, internal social tensions on nationalism, "underage terrorists" claims). Counter RF attempts to discredit Western analytical bodies. Counter WarGonzo's Transnistria narrative. Highlight the report of 2000 North Korean casualties. Counter RF attempts to leverage narratives like Serbia protests. Directly address Slovak PM Fico's comments regarding UAF oil pipeline strikes and his criticism of the EU, framing them as attempts to undermine European unity. Proactively counter Putin's statements denying aggression, claiming ZNPP cooperation readiness, and discussing Ukraine security with Trump. Counter RF IO regarding US NATO allies lacking political will to end the war, by highlighting ongoing Western support and unity. Counter the narrative of a strong Putin-Kim alliance by emphasizing international condemnation and the desperation of RF to seek aid from rogue states. Immediately refute the North Korean "Rodong Sinmun" article claiming Kim Jong Un met families of soldiers who died "liberating Kursk Oblast" as a blatant fabrication and historical revisionism. Counter Басурин о главном's report on US threats of sanctions at the UNSC by emphasizing the legitimacy of international pressure on RF. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" highlighting stalled fundraising should be used as a call for increased public and international support.
  • NEW: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports uncovering a scheme to illegally seize over 11 hectares of land on Zhukov Island in Kyiv, which should be used to demonstrate robust anti-corruption efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Finland removing the swastika from its Air Force flags, a symbolic win for NATO integration that should be amplified. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports on attending a meeting about the "eRecovery" program, highlighting post-conflict reconstruction efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Alex Parker Returns and Оперативний ЗСУ report Erdogan stated Putin and Zelensky are not ready for a meeting, which UAF can use to highlight Ukraine's continued resolve in the absence of suitable peace conditions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports Qatar supports a potential Russia-Ukraine summit but is not organizing it, which UAF can use to highlight Russia's international isolation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны reports NATO paid $2 billion for US weapons to Ukraine, citing Rutte, which UAF should amplify to demonstrate continued international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports five families from Russia and five from Ukraine will reunite, which UAF can use to highlight humanitarian efforts while emphasizing the context of the war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• Ukrainian Public Sentiment:
  • Heightened Alertness and Resilience, tempered by Energy Threat and Casualties, and managing High Volume Attacks, and winter preparations, and internal security concerns: The widespread air raid alerts in Kyiv (new threats to Kyiv, Vasylkiv, Borova, Bila Tserkva, and active air defense engagement over Left Bank and central Kyiv, with a confirmed explosion, drone debris in Dniprovskyi district impacting a kindergarten, and UAVs traversing multiple oblasts, and reconnaissance drones probing PPO, and new threats to Chernihiv Oblast, and an enemy UAV in western Sumy Oblast, and tactical aviation on Northern direction) will heighten public alertness but likely reinforce resilience. The confirmed fatality in Bila Tserkva will deeply impact public sentiment. Civilians sheltering in Kyiv metro indicate significant public concern and disruption. The finding of the missing soldier from Dnipro hospital will likely alleviate concerns. The constant reporting of fast-moving targets and UAVs in various regions will keep the public on high alert. The "Rubizh" NGU brigade fundraising and РБК-Україна's fundraising for the 153rd Separate Mechanized Brigade indicate public engagement. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ's recruitment post appealing to familial duty taps into underlying public sentiment. STERNENKO's report on +310 FPV drones purchased highlights public effectiveness, but the current call for more donations suggests a potential strain. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" highlighting stalled fundraising indicates potential public fatigue or redirection of support, which could impact morale if not addressed. The videos of the Parubiy murder suspect's confession, with claims of "personal revenge," could generate complex public reactions, potentially impacting trust in institutions or stoking internal divisions if not carefully managed.
  • NEW: Zaporizhzhia Oblast's (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦) winter preparations for energy infrastructure will likely reassure the public about resilience during the upcoming cold season. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: SBU exposing an FSB agent group in Kherson will likely boost public confidence in internal security measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Олександр Вілкул showcases a new security and patriotic education lyceum in Kryvyi Rih, which aims to boost morale and national pride. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими reports meetings with families of the 44th Separate Mechanized Brigade and the 71st Separate Jaeger Brigade, which can boost morale among military families. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video of a severely injured soldier requesting euthanasia from comrades, which could severely impact public morale due to its raw depiction of suffering. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports on attending a meeting about the "eRecovery" program, which could reassure the public about reconstruction efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video of Kyiv children holding lessons in the metro, featuring old footage of Poroshenko discussing social welfare, which if identified as old or misleading, could negatively impact trust in information. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video of a Ukrainian paratrooper appealing for donations of a DJI Mavic 3 drone for reconnaissance, which could rally public support but also highlight ongoing needs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports high fire danger in Kharkiv Oblast, likely causing public concern. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Concern over Civilian Impact and Casualties: The damage in Rostov-on-Don from UAF strikes, even if unintended, will likely cause public concern. BUtusov Plus's report of water scarcity in Donetsk highlights civilian distress. ASTRA reports 3 injured in Kharkiv Oblast. Drone debris impacting a kindergarten in Kyiv is a significant concern. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Boost from Offensive Successes and RF Attrition: Confirmed UAF drone strikes on Rostov-on-Don (with confirmed damage and casualties) and Unecha NPS will provide a significant boost to Ukrainian public morale. The liberation of Udachne will also provide a substantial morale boost. The 93rd Brigade's destruction of an RF logistics bridge and shelter will provide a morale boost. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Tensions (Mobilization): The persistent RF amplification of alleged TCC abuses is designed to, and likely will, fuel existing public apprehension. Оперативний ЗСУ reporting on women deputies travelling abroad without restrictions could be a morale boost. The reports of internal corruption (Офіс Генерального прокурора) could also impact public trust. The platform “StopTisk” for business protection indicates ongoing concerns about corruption and undue pressure, which can impact public sentiment. NEW: The scheme to illegally seize land on Zhukov Island in Kyiv highlights ongoing internal corruption issues that can impact public trust. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Reassurance from Counter-Espionage: The SBU uncovering a Russian "mole" will reassure the public about internal security. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • HMMWV Modification Boost: UAF modifying HMMWV vehicles with anti-drone mesh and improved armor will likely boost public confidence in military innovation and soldier protection. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Russian Public Sentiment:
  • Concern over Internal Security (Persisting), with New Localized Events, and amplified by UAF strikes: The thwarting of a terrorist attack on an OPK in Izhevsk by teenagers will likely raise public concern about internal security. Басурин о главном's candid report on the catastrophic failure of the Moscow medical system will likely generate significant public frustration. The iPhone defect due to RuStore absence could contribute to public frustration. TASS reports on 2 fatalities from a minefield in Kursk border area, confirmed as civilians, will likely cause public concern. Рыбарь's video of a physical altercation could fuel a sense of instability, as could his anti-migrant photo. The ban on filming drone attacks in Mari El indicates public sensitivity. The report of Tajiks beating a police officer could fuel nationalist sentiment. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники's video about relatives of deceased soldiers arguing over cemetery plots highlights profound social tensions. Новости Москвы reports on Moscow companies developing anonymous tracking technology, potentially raising privacy concerns. TASS reporting on record-breaking rental prices in Russian cities indicates growing economic pressure, which could lead to increased public dissatisfaction. The various RF channels (Kotsnews, Операция Z, Военкор Котенок, Alex Parker Returns, Два майора) reporting on the Parubiy murder suspect's confession and his claims of "personal revenge" (with some, like Alex Parker Returns, celebrating it as "goodness") could be used to mobilize nationalist sentiment and demonize "Ukrainian authorities," but could also expose internal divisions or highlight the human cost of the conflict.
  • NEW: The confirmed UAF drone strikes on Rostov-on-Don, now with confirmed damage to two multi-story buildings and four injured, will significantly increase public concern within RF regarding the security of their own territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ASTRA's report on a POW confession, if widely disseminated internally, could be used to portray UAF personnel as criminals, affecting public perception of the war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Глеб Никитин's posts on Arzamas development aim to project normalcy and progress, attempting to counter public anxieties about the war. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Kotsnews's video warning against nationalism disguised as patriotism suggests an effort to manage public sentiment and prevent internal strife caused by xenophobia. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Рыбарь posting videos of "underage terrorists" aims to reassure the public about state security efforts and control. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Alex Parker Returns continues to exploit the Parubiy murder, portraying the suspect as a "people's avenger" and claiming his son died in Bakhmut, aiming to generate nationalist sentiment and demonize Ukrainian authorities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Новости Москвы posting non-military domestic content (mushroom picking, Moscow Zoo) aims to foster a sense of normalcy and stability for the public. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad's civil defense instructions for Sevastopol aims to reassure local populations about their safety amidst UAF attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad reports on social challenges faced by "heroes of the SMO," which could impact veteran morale and public perception of government support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Басурин о главном posting infographics on cybersecurity scams and fake medical/educational resources aims to inform and protect the public, potentially boosting trust in state services. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports former head of RF Armed Forces communication planning department Ogloblin, sentenced for bribery, applied to participate in the "special operation" over 10 times but was rejected, which could be spun as dedication but also expose internal issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports villagers helped an ex-serviceman send children to school, which could boost morale about community support but also highlight individual struggles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Mash на Донбассе reports a "fake head" of the Urzuf administration was extorting money and tried to bribe investigators, which could erode public trust in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ASTRA reports a suspected war criminal was appointed minister, which could generate public concern or outrage, but RF IO will downplay. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports five families from Russia and five from Ukraine will reunite, aiming to portray humanitarianism and potentially foster positive sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Colonelcassad shares a video of crowdfunding for a UAZ van, which can boost public morale for supporting military but also exposes reliance on informal channels. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 posts a video of children on a swing in occupied Melitopol, with a critical caption, which could spark public debate or discontent regarding the situation in occupied areas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Potential Erosion of Confidence due to Logistical Failures, offset by crowdfunded support: The visually confirmed "gasoline collapse" in Luhansk is likely to cause frustration. However, the public promotion of crowdfunded support attempts to counter this. The Black Sea oil spill could cause public concern. The destruction of Unecha NPS pumping stations, if widely known, will likely erode public confidence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Nationalism and Stability (Reinforced via IO and Geopolitical Narrative, and multinational exercises): RF media highlighting claims of ground successes in Pokrovsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, Moskovka, Krasnolimansk, Fedorivka, and "successful strikes," will aim to boost national pride. The prominent coverage of the Putin-Xi Jinping meeting, the Power of Siberia-2 memorandum, and 22 cooperation documents, and a strong anti-Western narrative are all designed to reinforce nationalistic sentiment. China's visa-free regime for Russians will be presented as a positive development. The discussion of a Putin-Kim meeting will signal strong diplomatic ties. Mash на Донбассе video of a traffic jam with Russian flags could aim to project national unity. The promotion of 144th Motorized Rifle Division successes in Krasnolimansk reinforces nationalist narratives. TASS reports of US Senator Mike Lee's NATO comments will be used to reinforce anti-Western sentiment. Putin's meeting with Slovak PM Fico, and Fico's comments, will be used to project diplomatic influence. The planned Putin-Kim meeting at a parade and reception, with continued discussions, will be presented as a major diplomatic success for Russia and a show of force against the West.
  • NEW: MoD Russia's "Interaction 2025" exercise coverage aims to boost national pride and confidence in military capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Воин DV's report on the French Ministry of Health preparing for war will likely fuel a sense of impending global conflict, potentially reinforcing a "siege mentality" or galvanizing public support for the war effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Gazprom CEO Miller stated Europe underestimates gas storage problem, which could boost public confidence in RF's energy strategy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports BRICS countries will create a common list of traditional values, aiming to foster national pride and ideological alignment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Pakistan is "resolutely determined" to strengthen ties with Russia, and Putin stating lowered trade is a "good signal to work", indicating IO on new alliances. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Рыбарь posts a video about US Navy and Air Force operations in South America, focusing on drug interdiction, with a caption suggesting monitoring of "potential American invasion of Venezuela", which could fuel anti-US sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Alex Parker Returns and Оперативний ЗСУ report Erdogan stated Putin and Zelensky are not ready for a meeting, which RF will leverage to show lack of progress in peace talks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Qatar supports a potential Russia-Ukraine summit but is not organizing it, which RF will use to show international interest in dialogue involving them. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны reports NATO paid $2 billion for US weapons to Ukraine, citing Rutte, which RF will use to frame Western involvement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Russia and Turkey tested a mechanism where Gazprom payments for gas will remain in Turkey, to be used for the Akkuyu NPP, which could be used to project economic stability despite sanctions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Support for Ukraine:
  • Concern over EW Capability: The GPS jamming incident affecting a European Commission President's aircraft will raise significant international concern. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Reinforced Confidence from UAF Successes and RF Attrition: UAF's continued deep strikes into RF territory (Rostov-on-Don, now with confirmed damage and casualties, and Unecha NPS) will reinforce international confidence. The liberation of Udachne provides further evidence. The 93rd Brigade's destruction of an RF logistics bridge and shelter will further reinforce confidence in UAF's tactical ingenuity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NATO Expansion/Presence: Finland's NATO Land Forces Headquarters starting operations demonstrates increased NATO commitment. Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны (referencing Le Canard) reports France is preparing its medicine for a "big confrontation" in Europe by March 2026, indicating heightened Western awareness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • US Explosives Crisis: The NYT report on the US "TNT crisis" highlights the strain of supporting Ukraine on allied defense industrial bases. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Humanitarian/Civilian Infrastructure Support: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports receiving new comfortable buses from international partners, demonstrating continued humanitarian support.
  • NEW: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports on attending a meeting about the "eRecovery" program, highlighting international support for reconstruction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • French Internal Security Shift: Alex Parker Returns reports France switching to a domestic messenger, removing WhatsApp/Telegram due to alleged foreign intelligence links, which aligns with broader Western concerns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • New: TASS reports Afghanistan earthquake casualties, highlighting a global humanitarian concern, which may indirectly impact resource allocation or focus for international partners. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Finland will remove the swastika from its Air Force flags to avoid upsetting NATO allies, demonstrating adaptive actions for NATO integration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Alex Parker Returns and Оперативний ЗСУ report Erdogan stated Putin and Zelensky are not ready for a meeting. This is a diplomatic setback for peace talks but might be spun by UAF as RF's inflexibility. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны reports NATO paid $2 billion for US weapons to Ukraine, citing Rutte, which highlights continued, substantial military support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Germany and France plan to create a joint missile warning system, indicating increased European defense cooperation in response to perceived threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Poland will not send any more weapons to Ukraine, a significant diplomatic setback for UAF, though Poland will sign new weapons deals with Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Support for Russia/Anti-Western Alignment:
  • Sustained Russia-China-Mongolia Alignment (SCO and Historical Revisionism & Energy Deals, and multinational exercises): The Putin-Xi Jinping meeting in Beijing and the trilateral summit with Mongolia, including the signing of the Power of Siberia-2 memorandum and 22 cooperation documents, reinforces this strong alignment. China's announcement of a 30-day visa-free regime for Russian citizens strengthens bilateral relations. TASS reports Peskov stated that a meeting between Putin and Kim Jong Un would be discussed after Kim's arrival in Beijing tonight, signaling potential for further alignment. The report of 2000 North Korean casualties in Ukraine implies actual military support from DPRK to RF. TASS reports Putin and Kim Jong Un will be together at a parade and reception, and discussions will continue afterwards, confirming a strengthening military-diplomatic alignment. The North Korean "Rodong Sinmun" article claiming Kim Jong Un met families of military personnel who died "liberating Kursk Oblast" further solidifies the propaganda aspect of this alignment.
  • NEW: MoD Russia's "Interaction 2025" exercise coverage highlights cooperation with CSTO CRRF units, strengthening this alignment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Gazprom CEO Miller stated Europe underestimates the gas storage problem for winter, providing leverage for RF in energy diplomacy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: ТАСС reports BRICS countries will create a common list of traditional values, formalizing ideological alignment and counter-Western narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны promotes "Western dissidents" fleeing to Russia for traditional values. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Pakistan "resolutely determined" to strengthen ties with Russia, and Putin stating lowered trade is a "good signal to work", indicating an expanding network of allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Рыбарь posts a video about US Navy and Air Force operations in South America, focusing on drug interdiction, with a caption suggesting monitoring of "potential American invasion of Venezuela", used to fuel anti-US sentiment among potential allies. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: TASS reports Qatar supports a potential Russia-Ukraine summit but is not organizing it, which acknowledges a degree of international support for dialogue involving RF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • NEW: Russia and Turkey tested a mechanism where Gazprom payments for gas will remain in Turkey, to be used for the Akkuyu NPP, demonstrating successful circumvention of Western sanctions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Anti-Western Diplomatic Rhetoric (New, and framing Western "war preparations"): Kotsnews's article "A Warning Shot for Trump and Warlike Ursula" exemplifies RF's continued efforts to influence Western political discourse. TASS reports US Senator Mike Lee's statement calling for the US to exit NATO, which RF will leverage. WarGonzo's video on Transnistria is an attempt to rally support for unrecognized entities. Putin's meeting with Slovak PM Fico, and Fico's stated intent to relay Russia's message to the EU, and his complaints about UAF strikes on "Druzhba" pipeline, and his criticism of the EU as a "frog at the bottom of a well", indicate RF's direct engagement to create EU divisions. TASS reports that US NATO allies lack the political will for a quick end to hostilities in Ukraine, and Europe is unwilling to deploy troops, which RF will leverage to highlight Western disunity.
  • NEW: Воин DV's report on the French Ministry of Health ordering "preparation for war" directly feeds into RF's anti-Western narrative, portraying Western nations as preparing for direct conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • International Recognition of Think Tanks: Север.Реалии reports Russia has recognized the British Institute of Defense Studies (RUSI) as an "undesirable organization." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Turkey's "Steel Dome": The announcement of Turkey commissioning a "Steel Dome" air/missile defense system is significant for regional security and could potentially impact RF's calculations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Analytical Judgment)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

1. Sustained and Intensified Multi-Domain Deep Strikes on Kyiv (Kyiv, Vasylkiv, Borova, Bila Tserkva, Left Bank/Central Kyiv), Key Regional Targets (Sumy with KABs, Donbas with KABs, Izium, Izmail, Dnipropetrovsk border regions including Pokrovske), and Energy/Industrial/Port Infrastructure, with Blame Attribution IO, and Escalated Retaliation, including very high volume drone attacks, and targeting of UAF C2/personnel, and active internal espionage, and enhanced tactical logistics: RF will continue to prioritize massed drone and potentially missile attacks on Kyiv Oblast (new threats to Kyiv, Vasylkiv, Borova, Bila Tserkva, and active air defense engagement on Left Bank and over central Kyiv, with a confirmed explosion, drone debris in Dniprovskyi district impacting a kindergarten), and other regions (Sumy with KABs, Donbas with KABs, Izium, Izmail, Dnipropetrovsk border regions including Pokrovske, with a new threat to Sumy district, and a new threat of strike UAVs from the northeast for Chernihiv Oblast, and an enemy UAV in western Sumy Oblast, and tactical aviation on Northern direction). RF is highly likely to conduct retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian border regions and cities (e.g., Kharkiv Oblast) following the Rostov-on-Don attack and the Unecha NPS strike. Expect initial, probing RF strikes or intensified reconnaissance (e.g., 'Gerbera' drones) on Ukrainian energy and industrial infrastructure. RF will likely launch further high-volume drone attacks, potentially using newly showcased UAVs. Putin's admission of striking energy infrastructure confirms this COA. RF will continue aviation strikes against military targets in various regions and UAV control points. RF will enforce information control, as seen with the ban on filming drone attacks in Mari El. RF will actively propagate narratives of "Ukrainian PVO fails" during these strikes. Putin's statement (via Два майора) explicitly confirming that Russia tolerated Ukrainian strikes on its energy infrastructure for a long time but has now started to respond seriously, further reinforces the high likelihood of this retaliatory strike campaign. RF will continue to leverage FSB agent networks (as exposed in Kherson) to adjust fire and conduct targeting. RF will continue to adopt and promote tactical mobility solutions like dirt bikes for logistics and reconnaissance in challenging terrain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
2. Reinforced Ground Offensive in Pokrovsk Axis, with Consolidation on new axes in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, and Localized Offensive Operations on other Eastern directions, bolstered by informal logistical support, and heavy IO, and multinational exercises: RF will commit additional forces to exploit any perceived gains within Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk), continuing to make it a primary ground effort, despite the UAF liberation of Udachne. RF will attempt to consolidate claimed encirclement of UAF 80th AAB near Sadky in Sumy Oblast, and push active advances near Kozacha Lopan and consolidate gains in Moskovka in Kharkiv Oblast (supported by ground IO from Воин DV), including destroying UAF reconnaissance and sabotage groups. These new axes of advance will be accompanied by heavy IO to amplify perceived successes and sow confusion. RF MoD claim of liberating Fedorivka (DNR) will be part of this consolidation. RF will continue to leverage crowdfunded support for tactical units (including for UAZ vans). RF will continue to use artillery, including Grad MLRS (Kharkiv direction) and other platforms (Zaporizhzhia front, Konstantinovka, Druzhkovka), to support ground operations. RF will continue ground assaults and clashes across all active fronts reported by UAF General Staff (South Slobozhansky, Kupyansk, Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv) and promote successes in Krasnolimansk. RF will continue anti-armor engagements. RF will also continue mine laying in border areas. RF will conduct multinational military exercises with CSTO CRRF units ("Interaction 2025") to project strength and enhance operational readiness with allies. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
3. Sustained Diplomatic and Military-Industrial Outreach & Strategic EW (including counter-UAS), with Reinforced Anti-Western/Historical Revisionism IO, and Internal Stability Focus, and Long-Term Energy Strategy, and Legal Action against Critical Analysis, and attempts to influence Moldovan internal affairs, and exploiting Ukrainian internal incidents, and framing Western "war preparations": RF will continue to leverage its strategic EW capabilities (e.g., GPS jamming) and tactical counter-drone capabilities. RF will persist in diplomatic initiatives to strengthen partnerships (China/Putin-Xi/Mongolia meetings, new long-term energy agreements with China/Mongolia, China visa-free regime, potential Putin-Kim meeting now with Kim's arrival in Beijing, with ongoing tete-a-tete discussions with Fico, and strengthening ties with Pakistan, and new energy agreements with Turkey) and pursue a robust anti-Western geopolitical narrative (e.g., "warning shot" for Trump, "warlike Ursula," historical revisionism, "undesirable" RUSI, US Senator Mike Lee's NATO comments, NYT on warming global attitude towards Putin, Fico's EU criticism, Putin stating "Russia never had...desire to attack anyone", and anti-US narratives in South America). RF will integrate narratives of internal security successes (thwarted Izhevsk terror attack, bribery arrests, successful detention of "underage terrorists") and address internal social issues (medical system failures, RuStore absence, gift limits for teachers/doctors, internal security incidents like the Shchelkovo police assault, cemetery plot disputes, migrant issues, rising rental prices, and promoting internal development in cities like Arzamas, and promoting community support for veterans) into its IO. The signing of the Power of Siberia-2 memorandum and 22 cooperation documents will be heavily promoted. RF will showcase DIB capabilities, such as new UAV production and the UAVheli SKY-TRUCK. RF will continue to project normalcy and public support (e.g., mushroom picking, zoo videos, Melitopol amusement park). RF will continue to suppress negative information. RF will intensify IO against Moldova regarding Transnistria. RF will leverage sympathetic foreign figures. RF will highlight any instability in Europe. Putin's meeting with Fico will be leveraged for IO. RF will continue to use out-of-context quotes from UAF leadership. Putin's statements on ZNPP and atomic cooperation with USA in Slovakia will be part of this. The planned Putin-Kim meeting at a parade and reception, with continued discussions, will be a key component of this diplomatic outreach. RF will leverage the TASS report on US NATO allies lacking political will to end hostilities in Ukraine. RF will likely use the North Korean "Rodong Sinmun" article on "liberating Kursk Oblast" as part of a broader historical revisionism campaign. RF will leverage the Guardian report on US threats of sanctions at the UNSC for IO. RF will actively exploit internal Ukrainian incidents, such as the Parubiy murder and suspect's confession, to fuel anti-Ukrainian government narratives and sow internal discord. RF will frame Western "war preparations" (e.g., French Ministry of Health, Germany/France missile warning system) as evidence of Western aggression. RF will continue to foster ideological alignment with BRICS countries on "traditional values." RF will continue IO surrounding a potential Russia-Ukraine summit (with Qatar's support). RF will continue to highlight perceived UAF propaganda (e.g., Alex Parker Returns amplifying old Bakhmut claims). RF will continue IO around appointments of suspected war criminals. RF will continue IO around family reunions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

1. Coordinated Strategic-Level Cyber/EW and Massed Air Offensive on Kyiv and C2 Nodes, coupled with dedicated energy/industrial strikes, including novel drone/missile types: RF launches a synchronized, overwhelming air offensive against Kyiv and other critical energy/industrial infrastructure, combining an even higher volume of advanced drones and missiles (including potentially new or rapidly produced types from external partners, potentially incorporating AI from new China agreements and showcased Far East UAVs, and heavy-lift UAVs like SKY-TRUCK for payload delivery or ISR) with a strategic-level cyber and EW campaign designed to disable UAF air defense C2, degrade national communications, and paralyze decision-making, aiming to create conditions for a rapid ground advance or force concessions. This would leverage previously demonstrated strategic EW capabilities and potentially new drone/missile types, potentially alongside more sophisticated IO attacks focused on creating panic and societal collapse. The reconnaissance 'Gerbera' drones probing PPO are a precursor to this, and the almost three-hour attack indicates RF's willingness to sustain prolonged aerial pressure. The exposure of FSB agent groups targeting UAF C2 (Kherson) further indicates RF's intent and capability to disrupt C2, which could be integrated into such an MDCOA. The increasing tactical aviation activity in the Northern direction is also a precursor. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, but high impact)
2. Accelerated Integration of Advanced External Military Aid for Escalation, specifically long-range precision weapons and counter-air assets, combined with increased indigenous production: RF secures a rapid and substantial influx of advanced long-range precision missiles (e.g., from DPRK, potentially including ICBM-derived technology with improved range/payload, facilitated by a Putin-Kim meeting, now with Kim's arrival in Beijing and travel after missile visits) and/or a significant number of advanced counter-air or air-superiority fighter jets (e.g., if Su-57 deal with India progresses rapidly or other partners step up, or if China provides critical components/systems). This would be coupled with a significant boost in RF's own defense industrial production capacity (including showcased Far East UAVs and heavy-lift platforms like SKY-TRUCK). This would significantly enhance RF's deep strike capabilities, air superiority, and potentially enable new, more destructive offensive campaigns, changing the strategic balance. The report of 2000 North Korean casualties suggests this is already occurring. The confirmed plan for Putin and Kim Jong Un to attend a parade/reception and hold further discussions significantly increases the likelihood of an accelerated integration of advanced external military aid from DPRK. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
3. Wider Regional Hybrid Campaign Targeting NATO Border States, supported by strong anti-Western geopolitical narrative, including overt military provocations: RF expands its hybrid warfare operations (cyberattacks, disinformation, covert influence, state-sponsored terrorism, potential conventional provocations, and aggressive military exercises near borders) into NATO border states (e.g., Poland, Baltic states) to test NATO's Article 5 resolve, divert attention and resources from Ukraine, and further destabilize Eastern Europe. This would be framed by the ongoing anti-Western geopolitical narrative from RF/China, aiming to portray NATO as a disintegrating alliance. This MDCOA would include more overt military provocations or border incidents than previously considered, potentially leveraging intelligence from "undesirable organizations" or other sources. WarGonzo's IO on Transnistria could be a precursor to destabilization there. France's reported medical preparations for a "big confrontation" suggest a heightened awareness of this potential. The French move to Tchap for government communications highlights concerns about foreign intelligence activities (including Russian). Putin's meeting with Slovak PM Fico, and Fico's willingness to relay Russia's message to the EU, could be a test of EU unity and a precursor to broader efforts to divide NATO/EU. The TASS report on US NATO allies lacking political will for a quick end to hostilities, and Europe unwilling to deploy troops, creates a narrative for RF to exploit in such a campaign, aiming to undermine NATO resolve. The report that the French Ministry of Health has ordered "preparation for war" could be leveraged by RF to frame Western nations as initiating escalation, justifying further aggressive actions. The planned Germany/France joint missile warning system highlights this ongoing concern. (LOW CONFIDENCE, but catastrophic impact)

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

• Next 24-48 hours:
  • RF Deep Strikes & Retaliation, with energy/industrial/port focus and high volume in Kyiv, and internal espionage attempts: High probability of continued drone/missile strikes on Kyiv Oblast (Brovary, and new threats to Kyiv, Vasylkiv, Borova, Bila Tserkva, and active air defense engagement on Left Bank and over central Kyiv, with a confirmed explosion, drone debris in Dniprovskyi district impacting a kindergarten), and other regions (Sumy with KABs, Donbas with KABs, Izium, Izmail, Dnipropetrovsk border regions including Pokrovske, with a new threat to Sumy district, and a new threat of strike UAVs from the northeast for Chernihiv Oblast, and an enemy UAV in western Sumy Oblast, and tactical aviation on Northern direction). RF is highly likely to conduct retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian border regions and cities (e.g., Kharkiv Oblast) following the Rostov-on-Don attack and the Unecha NPS strike. Expect initial, probing RF strikes or intensified reconnaissance (e.g., 'Gerbera' drones) on Ukrainian energy and industrial infrastructure. RF will likely launch further high-volume drone attacks, potentially using newly showcased UAVs. Putin's admission of striking energy infrastructure confirms this COA. RF will continue aviation strikes against military targets in various regions and UAV control points. RF will enforce information control, as seen with the ban on filming drone attacks in Mari El. RF will actively propagate narratives of "Ukrainian PVO fails" during these strikes. Putin's statement (via Два майора) explicitly confirming that Russia tolerated Ukrainian strikes on its energy infrastructure for a long time but has now started to respond seriously, further reinforces the high likelihood of this retaliatory strike campaign. RF will continue to leverage FSB agent networks (as exposed in Kherson) to adjust fire and conduct targeting. RF will continue to adopt and promote tactical mobility solutions like dirt bikes for logistics and reconnaissance in challenging terrain. Decision Point: UAF must maintain high air defense readiness, assess BDA, implement immediate countermeasures, and prepare rapid counter-IO responses, acknowledging civilian casualties in Rostov-on-Don with regret, while simultaneously hardening energy and industrial targets. Continue to monitor for and neutralize internal agent networks (like the FSB group exposed in Kherson) that aid RF targeting. UAF Air Force to monitor tactical aviation activity closely.
  • RF Ground Offensive (Pokrovsk, Sumy, Kharkiv Oblast, Zaporizhzhia, Krasnolimansk, Fedorivka etc.), and multinational exercises, and tactical logistics adoption: RF will likely reinforce and attempt to exploit claims of urban combat in Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk), and further press advances near Kozacha Lopan and consolidate gains in Moskovka in Kharkiv Oblast (supported by ground IO from Воин DV), and attempt to consolidate encirclement in Sumy. RF MoD claim of liberating Fedorivka in DNR will be propagated. RF will continue artillery support on all active fronts, including Zaporizhzhia (Konstantinovka, Druzhkovka). RF will likely continue assaults on axes reported by UAF General Staff (South Slobozhansky, Kupyansk, Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv) and promote successes in Krasnolimansk. RF will continue "Interaction 2025" CSTO exercises. Decision Point: UAF to confirm/deny RF presence and commit tactical reserves for defense if required, and rapidly refute false claims, especially following the liberation of Udachne. UAF needs to confirm the number of repelled RF assaults daily. ОТУ "Харків" will provide continuous updates and tactical recommendations, especially given the high fire danger. UAF should monitor for increased use of tactical logistics (e.g., VDV dirt bikes) to improve RF agility.
  • UAF Counter-Logistics (Luhansk, Unecha): UAF will likely attempt to exploit the confirmed RF fuel crisis in Luhansk and the destruction of Unecha NPS via IO and kinetic strikes. Decision Point: UAF to prioritize ISR for fuel convoys and storage, and potential follow-up strikes.
  • Putin-Kim Meeting: With Kim Jong Un's arrival in Beijing after missile visits, discussions for a Putin-Kim meeting are imminent. The confirmed plan for them to be together at a parade and reception, with continued discussions, indicates this will proceed rapidly. Decision Point: UAF/allies to monitor for any confirmation or details of such a meeting, assessing potential for increased DPRK military aid to RF.
  • Putin-Fico Meeting Outcomes: Monitor the immediate fallout and statements regarding the Putin-Fico meeting, especially Fico's stated intent to convey Russia's message to the EU, his complaints about UAF oil pipeline strikes, and his criticism of the EU. The ongoing tete-a-tete discussions will be key. Decision Point: UAF/allies to formulate rapid diplomatic and IO responses to mitigate potential divisions within the EU.
  • RF Internal Security Actions/IO: Monitoring for follow-up actions or statements regarding the thwarted Izhevsk terror attack and the internal medical system issues. Monitoring public reaction and further reports on minefield fatalities in Kursk, bribery arrests, internal security incidents like the Shchelkovo police assault, and cemetery plot disputes. Monitor RF IO regarding internal development (Arzamas) and external "war preparations" (French Ministry of Health, Germany/France missile warning system). Monitor for further IO regarding "underage terrorists" and internal social tensions (nationalism). Monitor messaging about veteran welfare and community support. Monitor internal corruption in occupied territories (Urzuf). Decision Point: UAF IO to monitor and exploit for counter-propaganda, highlighting humanitarian aspects of family reunions.
  • Parubiy Murder Confession (Internal Security/IO): Monitor the ongoing legal proceedings and public reaction to the suspect's confession, especially in light of the 60-day remand. Expect RF to continue exploiting this. Decision Point: UAF IO to ensure consistent messaging that refutes any RF attempts to claim influence or justify the crime, emphasizing personal accountability and refuting anti-Ukrainian government narratives, including those from Alex Parker Returns.
  • Zaporizhzhia Winter Preparations: Monitor progress on the 80% completion of winter preparations for energy infrastructure. Decision Point: UAF to identify and address remaining gaps to ensure energy security for the winter.
  • STERNENKO Fundraising: Monitor STERNENKO's fundraising progress for drones. Decision Point: UAF logistics and procurement to assess if alternative funding or supply mechanisms are needed due to insufficient public donations, noting the appeal from the Ukrainian paratrooper.
  • RF Energy/Gas Strategy: Monitor Gazprom CEO Miller's statements on European gas storage and any follow-up RF actions to leverage this. Monitor the new Russia-Turkey gas payment mechanism. Decision Point: UAF allies to consider responses to mitigate European energy vulnerabilities and RF attempts to circumvent sanctions.
  • BRICS Traditional Values: Monitor for further details on the common list of traditional values from BRICS and assess its implications for geopolitical alignment. Decision Point: UAF allies to analyze and counter any anti-Western narratives emerging from this.
  • Finland Air Force Swastika Removal: Monitor for any further IO from RF or reactions from NATO allies regarding this symbolic move. Decision Point: UAF/allies to leverage this for IO on NATO cohesion.
  • Poland Weapons Support: Monitor for clarity on Poland's revised stance on weapons deliveries and the new weapons deals with Ukraine. Decision Point: UAF/allies to ensure consistent understanding of Polish support.
  • Pakistan Ties with Russia: Monitor for further developments in Russia-Pakistan ties, particularly any military or economic cooperation that could impact the conflict. Decision Point: UAF/allies to assess geopolitical implications.
  • Ukraine "eRecovery" Program: Monitor progress and public reception of the "eRecovery" program. Decision Point: UAF to ensure effective implementation and communication of reconstruction efforts.
  • Kryvyi Rih Lyceum: Monitor the opening and initial operations of the new security and patriotic education lyceum. Decision Point: UAF to leverage this for long-term national security development and IO.
  • POW Family Support: Monitor the ongoing meetings with POW families by the Coordination Headquarters. Decision Point: UAF to ensure continued and effective support for POW families.
  • US Operations in South America (RF IO): Monitor for further RF IO leveraging US military operations in South America, particularly the "potential American invasion of Venezuela" narrative. Decision Point: UAF IO to monitor and counter this framing if it impacts Western unity.
  • Harxiv Fire Danger: Monitor the fire situation in Kharkiv Oblast closely. Decision Point: UAF to allocate resources for fire suppression if necessary to protect military and civilian assets.
• Next 72 hours - 1 week:
  • RF Deep Strike Pattern and Energy/Industrial Campaign: A clearer pattern of RF deep strike targeting (e.g., sustained focus on Kyiv or a new primary target set, including potential retaliatory patterns and persistent KAB employment, and the extent of the Chernihiv/Zhytomyr/Dnipropetrovsk axes, and the Sumy district) should emerge. The scope and intensity of RF's energy and industrial infrastructure campaign will become evident, especially as reconnaissance drones continue to probe PPO. Decision Point: UAF to adapt air defense deployments and defensive strategies accordingly, including for new probed areas like Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, and Vyshhorod, and prioritize hardening and defending energy and industrial assets.
  • RF-India Military-Industrial Discussions: Further details on potential Su-57 production in India may emerge, indicating long-term RF military-industrial strategy. Decision Point: UAF/allies to monitor and assess potential impacts on global arms markets and RF's capabilities.
  • Impact of Rostov-on-Don and Unecha NPS Damage: Full BDA and operational impact of the drone strikes in Rostov-on-Don and Unecha NPS will become clearer, along with the humanitarian response in Rostov. Decision Point: UAF to assess the necessity of rapid repair or alternative infrastructure and leverage for IO.
  • NATO HQ in Finland and France's Preparations: Continued monitoring of operations and statements from NATO's new Land Forces Headquarters in Finland. Assess the implications of France's reported medical preparations for a "big confrontation" for broader Western readiness and support for Ukraine, and the Germany/France joint missile warning system. Decision Point: UAF/allies to assess regional security implications and potential for increased NATO cohesion.
  • Black Sea Oil Spill: Environmental impact and any RF response or mitigation efforts will become clearer. Decision Point: UAF Naval Forces to monitor spill trajectory and potential impact on maritime operations; STRATCOM to exploit for IO.
  • Transnistria Escalation: Monitor for any increased RF/separatist activity in Transnistria, following WarGonzo's IO, that could lead to heightened tensions or provocations. Decision Point: UAF/allies to monitor for any destabilizing actions and prepare diplomatic responses.
  • Turkey's "Steel Dome": Assess the broader implications of Turkey commissioning its "Steel Dome" air/missile defense system for regional security dynamics and potential impact on RF operations. Decision Point: UAF/allies to monitor Turkey's defense posture.
  • UAF Drone Procurement: Monitor STERNENKO's fundraising efforts and assess if the reported insufficient donations will impact FPV drone supply to the front. Decision Point: UAF logistics and procurement to assess alternative funding or supply mechanisms.
  • RF Economic Indicators: Monitor for further reporting on rental prices and other economic indicators in Russian cities. Decision Point: UAF IO to track and exploit signs of internal economic strain in RF for propaganda purposes.
  • RF R&D/Production: Monitor for further demonstrations or deployments of new UAVs (e.g., from 'Vostochny Briz 2023' competition). Decision Point: UAF TECHINT to analyze and develop countermeasures.
  • Poland Arms Deals: Monitor the signing and implementation of new weapons deals between Poland and Ukraine. Decision Point: UAF to expedite integration of any new systems.
  • Qatar Summit Support: Monitor for any further diplomatic activity regarding a potential Russia-Ukraine summit. Decision Point: UAF to maintain consistent diplomatic messaging on preconditions for peace.
• Longer Term (2-4 weeks):
  • RF Winter Campaign Preparations: No new information to alter previous assessment. RF will continue preparations, with a high likelihood of targeting energy and industrial infrastructure throughout the winter. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Evolution of RF Diplomatic Alignment and Anti-Western Bloc: The success or failure of US efforts to distance Russia, India, and China, along with RF's continued SCO engagement and the outcomes of the Putin-Xi-Mongolia meetings and new energy agreements, will shape the broader geopolitical landscape influencing the conflict, cementing the anti-Western bloc with its call for "more just global governance." Potential for a Putin-Kim meeting will further define this bloc. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • DPRK Role in RF Military Aid: The long-term implications of DPRK's advanced missile technology development for its potential military aid to RF, and the confirmed report of North Korean casualties in Ukraine, potentially facilitated by diplomatic engagements like Kim Jong Un's visit to China, will be a critical factor in RF's sustained offensive capabilities. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• CRITICAL: What is the full Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the UAF drone strikes on Rostov-on-Don? Specifically, what type of buildings were hit, what was the extent of the damage, and were there any secondary explosions or impacts on critical infrastructure? Confirm the status of the unexploded ordnance (UXO) and independently verify RF claims of 13 UAV interceptions. (IMINT, SIGINT, OSINT – local RF and Ukrainian reports, social media analysis)
• CRITICAL: What is the definitive ground truth regarding RF presence and urban combat in western Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk)? Confirm or deny RF control of Torgovaya and Liza Chaikina streets and the veracity of UAF counter-attacks. Independently verify the claims and footage from Воин DV regarding Moskovka, Kharkiv Oblast. (IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT, OSINT – local reports)
• CRITICAL: What is the full Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) from the RF drone strike on the Brovary district, Kyiv Oblast, specifically regarding the enterprise and warehouses targeted? What is the BDA from the confirmed explosion in Kyiv and the drone debris in Dniprovskyi district? (IMINT, SIGINT, OSINT – local Ukrainian reports)
• CRITICAL: What is the operational impact of the LPR fuel shortage on RF combat readiness, mobility, and the sustainment of units operating on the eastern front? Identify specific RF units affected and potential alternative supply routes for interdiction. How much are crowdfunded civilian efforts mitigating these shortfalls for frontline units, and what is the scope of this informal logistics, including the crowdfunding for UAZ vans? (SIGINT, HUMINT, OSINT – local RF reports)
• CRITICAL: Independently verify RF claims (TASS) regarding the encirclement of elements of the UAF 80th Airborne Assault Brigade near Sadky in the Sumy direction. If verified, assess the scale and operational impact. (IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT, OSINT – local reports)
• CRITICAL: Independently verify RF claims (TASS) of active advances by Russian units near Kozacha Lopan in Kharkiv Oblast, and confirm the distance to the settlement, and the claimed dislodgement of UAF from Moskovka, including the destruction of Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage groups. If verified, assess the units involved and the operational impact. (IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT, OSINT – local reports)
• CRITICAL: What are the full details and environmental/operational impact of the RF oil spill in the Black Sea, and its trajectory towards Crimea? What is the source of the spill? (IMINT, SIGINT, OSINT – maritime monitoring, environmental reports)
• CRITICAL: What is the full Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) from the UAF strike on the Unecha NPS pumping stations? What is the operational impact on RF oil supply lines? (IMINT, SIGINT, OSINT – satellite imagery analysis, local RF reports)
• CRITICAL: Independently verify RF claims of strikes on Izium and Izmail, and the destruction of UAF weapons depots in Pokrovske, Dnipropropetrovsk Oblast. What were the targets and BDA? (IMINT, SIGINT, OSINT – local Ukrainian reports, social media analysis)
• CRITICAL: What is the precise ground truth of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division's advances in the Krasnolimansk direction? What Ukrainian units are opposing them and what are the current control lines? (IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT, OSINT – local reports)
• CRITICAL: What is the operational role and current deployment of the UAVheli SKY-TRUCK being promoted by Два майора? (IMINT, TECHINT, OSINT)
• CRITICAL: What is the precise extent of RF reconnaissance of Ukrainian energy facilities? Identify specific targets, methods of reconnaissance (UAV, HUMINT, SIGINT), and estimated timelines for potential strikes, particularly focusing on the 'Gerbera' drones. (IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT, OSINT – Ukrainian intelligence reports)
• CRITICAL: What is the specific impact of RF drone strikes on Ukrainian artillery positions and supply vehicles in the Dnipropetrovsk border region, as reported by Poddubny? Confirm the type and quantity of destroyed assets. (IMINT, SIGINT, OSINT)
• CRITICAL: Independently verify RF MoD claims of "liberating" Fedorivka in DNR. (IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT, OSINT – local reports)
• CRITICAL: What is the specific BDA and operational impact of the 93rd Brigade's destruction of the RF logistics bridge and shelter? (IMINT, OSINT – visual analysis, local reports)
• CRITICAL: What are the full details and operational impact of the FSB agent group exposed by SBU in Kherson? Specifically, what UAF personnel and C2 nodes were compromised, and what was the extent of the fire adjustment conducted? (HUMINT, SIGINT, OSINT – UAF reports)
• CRITICAL: What are the specific capabilities and deployment of the dirt bikes for VDV logistics and supply? What is their operational effectiveness in different terrains and under various weather conditions? (IMINT, TECHINT, OSINT)
• CRITICAL: What is the full BDA from the impact of drone debris on the kindergarten in Dniprovskyi district, Kyiv? (IMINT, OSINT – local Ukrainian reports)
• CRITICAL: What are the specific details and full operational impact of the new threat of strike UAVs from the northeast for Chernihiv Oblast? (IMINT, SIGINT, OSINT – UAF reports)
• CRITICAL: What are the specific details of the enemy UAV, likely reconnaissance, in western Sumy Oblast, and the outcome of UAF engagement? (IMINT, SIGINT, OSINT – UAF reports)
• CRITICAL: What is the specific nature and scale of enemy tactical aviation activity on the northern direction? (IMINT, SIGINT, OSINT – UAF reports)
• CRITICAL: What are the verified targets and battle damage assessment from the drone footage of a military operation, likely an artillery strike, posted by Дневник Десантника🇷🇺? (IMINT, OSINT)
• CRITICAL: What are the specific conditions and potential impacts of the high fire danger in Kharkiv Oblast on military operations and civilian areas? (IMINT, OSINT – local reports, environmental data)
• HIGH: What were the specific outcomes and agreements of the Putin-Xi Jinping and the trilateral Russia-China-Mongolia meetings in Beijing, including the 22 cooperation documents, and what are the short-term and long-term implications for RF-China-Mongolia relations and support for the conflict in Ukraine? Specifically, what is the full impact of the "Power of Siberia-2" memorandum and other cooperation documents (including AI)? (OSINT – diplomatic reports, state media analysis)
• HIGH: What are the confirmed technical specifications and production timelines for DPRK's new solid-fuel engine for the Hwasong-20 ICBM, and what are the implications for potential technology transfer or military aid to RF, especially in light of a potential Putin-Kim meeting and the reported 2000 North Korean casualties? (SIGINT, IMINT, HUMINT, OSINT)
• HIGH: What is the source, range, and full capability of the EW system responsible for the strategic GPS jamming incident affecting the European Commission President's aircraft? (SIGINT, ELINT, TECHINT)
• HIGH: Conduct detailed forensic analysis of the video released by Colonelcassad depicting FPV counter-drone operations, identifying specific units, equipment, and assessed effectiveness. (IMINT, TECHINT, OSINT)
• HIGH: What are the specific capabilities and operational readiness of NATO's new Land Forces Headquarters in Finland? What is its mandate and anticipated impact on regional security? (OSINT – NATO/Finnish military statements)
• HIGH: What is the specific content and strategic intent of Kotsnews's article "A Warning Shot for Trump and Warlike Ursula"? (OSINT – media analysis)
• HIGH: What is the specific content of France's medical preparations for a "big confrontation" by March 2026? What does this imply about anticipated conflict scenarios and timelines? (OSINT - Le Canard, French Ministry of Health statements)
• HIGH: What are the specific details and broader implications of the "Tajiks beating a police officer in Shchelkovo" incident reported by АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА? (OSINT - local RF reports, social media analysis)
• HIGH: What are the exact nature and outcomes of Scott Ritter's working visit to Moscow, and what is the content of the "Declaration" mentioned by Басурин о главном? (OSINT)
• HIGH: What is the full impact of France's switch to Tchap messenger, and specifically, what are the alleged foreign intelligence links to WhatsApp and Telegram that prompted this decision? (OSINT)
• HIGH: What are the full details and political ramifications of the Putin-Fico meeting, especially Fico's stated intent to convey Russia's message to the EU, his complaints about UAF oil pipeline strikes, and his criticism of the EU? What specific "sensitive issues" are being discussed tete-a-tete? (OSINT - TASS, Slovak media analysis)
• HIGH: What is the full context and intent behind RF's use of an old quote from Zaluzhny, "All military science is in Russia," for IO? (OSINT - UAF sources, RF media analysis)
• HIGH: What are the specific details and broader implications of the dispute between relatives of deceased soldiers over cemetery plots in Russia? (OSINT - МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, local RF reports)
• HIGH: What is the full extent of the SBU's uncovering of a Russian "mole" on a UAF repair base in Donetsk? What information was compromised, and what is the operational impact? (HUMINT, SIGINT, OSINT - UAF reports)
• HIGH: What are the specifics of Putin's claims regarding a discussion with Trump on Ukraine's post-conflict security in Alaska? (OSINT - TASS, US/international media analysis)
• HIGH: What is the full details and implications of the North Korean "Rodong Sinmun" newspaper article dedicating an issue to Kim Jong Un's meeting with families of military personnel who died "liberating Kursk Oblast"? Is this a deliberate fabrication, historical revisionism, or an indication of direct DPRK military involvement in RF territory? (OSINT – DPRK/RF state media analysis, historical context)
• HIGH: What is the specific content of the US Ambassador to NATO's statement regarding US NATO allies lacking the political will for a quick end to hostilities in Ukraine, and Europe's unwillingness to deploy troops? (OSINT – TASS, US/NATO statements)
• HIGH: What are the precise details of the Guardian report (cited by Басурин о главном) regarding the US threatening Russia with sanctions at the UN Security Council? (OSINT – The Guardian, UN reports)
• HIGH: What are the full details surrounding the confession of the suspect in the Parubiy murder? Specifically, what are the verified motives and does any evidence support or refute his claims of "personal revenge" and denial of Russian blackmail? (OSINT – Ukrainian legal reports, news coverage)
• HIGH: What are the specific details of the "Interaction 2025" CSTO exercise? What units are participating, what are the exercise objectives, and what are the implications for RF's and CSTO's combined arms capabilities? (OSINT - MoD Russia, CSTO statements)
• HIGH: What is the specific impact of the Afghanistan earthquake (1,411 dead, 3,124 injured) on international humanitarian aid efforts and potential resource reallocation from other regions, including Ukraine? (OSINT – UN reports, humanitarian organizations)
• HIGH: What is the specific impact of Gazprom CEO Miller's statement on European gas storage and its implications for European energy security for winter? (OSINT – TASS, European energy market analysis)
• HIGH: What are the full details and strategic implications of the BRICS countries creating a common list of "traditional values"? (OSINT – TASS, BRICS official statements)
• HIGH: What are the specific details of the modifications to the UAF HMMWV vehicles, including the effectiveness of the anti-drone mesh and the protection class of the armored glass? (IMINT, TECHINT, OSINT – UAF reports)
• HIGH: What are the full details of the scheme to illegally seize over 11 hectares of land on Zhukov Island in Kyiv? What is the status of the investigation and the impact on local governance? (OSINT – Офіс Генерального прокурора, local media)
• HIGH: What are the specific implications of Finland removing the swastika from its Air Force flags for NATO cohesion and RF IO? (OSINT – ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Finnish/NATO statements)
• HIGH: What are the details of the camouflage options being considered for the Su-34E and the reasons for rejecting the "orange" or "piglet" schemes? (IMINT, TECHINT, OSINT – Fighterbomber)
• HIGH: What are the specific capabilities and strategic implications of the unmanned systems (drones and USVs) showcased at the 'Vostochny Briz 2023' competition in Vladivostok? (TECHINT, OSINT – WarGonzo)
• HIGH: What is the current status of Poland's weapons deliveries to Ukraine, and what are the specific details of the new weapons deals to be signed? (OSINT - Polish/Ukrainian government statements)
• HIGH: What are the specific details of Pakistan's "resolutely determined" stance to strengthen ties with Russia, and what specific areas of cooperation are being discussed with Putin? (OSINT - TASS, Pakistani government statements)
• HIGH: What are the full details of former head of RF Armed Forces communication planning department Ogloblin's bribery case and the implications of his repeated applications to join the "special operation"? (OSINT - TASS, legal reports)
• HIGH: What are the specific details of the "eRecovery" program in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and its achievements and future steps? (OSINT - 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА), government reports)
• HIGH: What is the verified content and context of the video of Kyiv children holding lessons in the metro featuring former President Poroshenko, and is it being used for RF IO? (OSINT - Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Ukrainian media)
• HIGH: What are the specific conditions for a potential Russia-Ukraine summit that Qatar supports, and what are the positions of Russia and Ukraine on these conditions? (OSINT - TASS, diplomatic statements)
• HIGH: What are the specific details and implications of NATO paying $2 billion for US weapons to Ukraine, as cited by Rutte? (OSINT - Операция Z / Военкоры Русской Весны, NATO/US statements)
• HIGH: What are the specific details of the planned Germany-France joint missile warning system? (OSINT - Воин DV, government statements)
• HIGH: What are the full details of the Russia-Turkey mechanism for Gazprom payments for gas to remain in Turkey for the Akkuyu NPP, and its implications for circumventing sanctions and energy security? (OSINT - Alex Parker Returns, Turkish/RF government statements)
• MEDIUM: What is the current state of US TNT reserves and production capacity, and what measures are being taken to address any shortages impacting military aid to Ukraine? (OSINT – defense industry reports, US government statements)
• MEDIUM: What are the details regarding the foiled terrorist attack on the OPK in Izhevsk, including the teenagers' motivations and any external links? (OSINT - RF media, FSB statements)
• MEDIUM: What is the full scope and impact of the reported deficiencies in the Russian medical system, as highlighted by Басурин о главном, and what are the political ramifications for the RF leadership? (OSINT - social media analysis, internal reporting)
• MEDIUM: What are the specific capabilities of the "optical fiber drone" mentioned by STERNENKO? (TECHINT, OSINT - UAF sources)
• MEDIUM: What is the full BDA and target of the LMR strike on a UAV control point reported by Fighterbomber? (IMINT, SIGINT, OSINT)
• MEDIUM: What is the current disposition and combat effectiveness of the North Korean military personnel reportedly in Ukraine? (HUMINT, SIGINT, OSINT)
• MEDIUM: What is the actual number of FPV drones procured by STERNENKO's initiative, and what is the expected impact on UAF tactical operations given the reported insufficiency of donations? (OSINT)
• MEDIUM: What are the details of the investigations into murder and cruel treatment of civilians in Bucha, specifically regarding the new RF servicemen implicated and the progress of legal actions? (OSINT)
• MEDIUM: What are the capabilities and potential applications of the anonymous people-tracking technology developed by Moscow companies? (TECHINT, OSINT)
• MEDIUM: What is the full impact of record-breaking rental prices in Russian cities on public sentiment and internal stability? (OSINT – economic analysis, social media monitoring)
• MEDIUM: What are the specific plans and timeline for Zaporizhzhia Oblast's winter energy preparations, particularly regarding the protection of transformer substations and decentralized energy generation facilities? (OSINT – local Ukrainian government statements)
• MEDIUM: What are the specific details of the internal social tensions regarding nationalism and inter-ethnic conflicts as reported by Kotsnews? What is the impact on internal stability? (OSINT – Kotsnews, social media analysis)
• MEDIUM: What are the full details and internal impact of the detention and interrogation of "underage terrorists" by RF authorities? (OSINT – Рыбарь, RF media analysis)
• MEDIUM: What are the details of Alex Parker Returns's claims regarding the Parubiy murder suspect's son dying in Bakhmut and the broader narrative being promoted? (OSINT – Alex Parker Returns, social media analysis)
• MEDIUM: What is the impact of promoting non-military domestic content (mushroom picking, zoo videos) by Новости Москвы on RF public sentiment? (OSINT – media analysis, social media monitoring)
• MEDIUM: What are the specifics of the social challenges faced by "heroes of the SMO" as reported by Colonelcassad? What is the impact on veteran welfare and public morale? (OSINT – Colonelcassad, social media analysis)
• MEDIUM: What is the content and purpose of the cybersecurity scams and fake medical/educational resource infographics posted by Басурин о главном? (OSINT – Басурин о главном, cybersecurity reports)
• MEDIUM: What are the specific details of the new security and patriotic education lyceum in Kryvyi Rih, including its curriculum, capacity, and impact on local security personnel development? (OSINT - Олександр Вілкул, local media)
• MEDIUM: What are the specific details and outcomes of the meetings held by the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War with families of the 44th Separate Mechanized Brigade and the 71st Separate Jaeger Brigade? (OSINT - Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, official reports)
• MEDIUM: What are the details and impact of the video showing a severely injured soldier requesting euthanasia from comrades? (OSINT - БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, social media)
• MEDIUM: What is the content and impact of former Ukrainian President Yanukovych's appearance in the info-field, particularly his criticisms of Ukraine's past EU/NATO aspirations? (OSINT - Стрелков Игорь Иванович, Russian/Ukrainian media)
• MEDIUM: What are the details and impact of the fundraising effort by РБК-Україна for vehicles for the 153rd Separate Mechanized Brigade? (OSINT - РБК-Україна, fundraising platforms)
• MEDIUM: What is the context and impact of the critical caption accompanying the video of children on a swing in occupied Melitopol posted by Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦? (OSINT - Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, social media)
• LOW: What are the specific capabilities, production rates, and deployment plans for the new strike and reconnaissance UAVs produced in the Far East and showcased by TASS? (IMINT, TECHINT, OSINT)
• LOW: What is the intent behind the ban on filming drone attacks and their consequences in Mari El Republic? (OSINT - ASTRA, local RF reports)
• LOW: What is the specific intent and audience of WarGonzo's video on the 35th anniversary of Transnistria? (OSINT - media analysis)
• LOW: What are the exact details and operational implications of Turkey's new "Steel Dome" air and missile defense system? (OSINT)
• LOW: What are the specific details of the development projects in Arzamas and their strategic value to RF? (OSINT)
• LOW: What are the details of the Russian-Ukrainian family reunions announced by Moskalova, and their broader humanitarian/political implications? (OSINT - TASS)

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize Air Defense for Kyiv (Kyiv, Vasylkiv, Borova, Bila Tserkva), Sumy, Donbas, and Critical Energy/Industrial/Port Infrastructure; Prepare for Escalated Retaliation; Enhance Counter-Espionage: Immediately re-task and surge all available air defense assets (SAMs, SHORAD, counter-UAS) to provide robust, layered defense for Kyiv Oblast (especially Kyiv city center, Vasylkiv, Borova, Bila Tserkva, Dniprovskyi district), Sumy (including industrial sites, considering KAB strikes), Donbas region (considering KAB strikes), and maintain enhanced surveillance and defense along all threatened axes, especially the new UAV axes identified (Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk border regions, Sumy district). Critically, immediately implement enhanced air defense and hardening measures for identified energy and industrial infrastructure targets based on RF reconnaissance by 'Gerbera' drones probing PPO positions, and given the prolonged attack on Kyiv. This should leverage the proactive winter preparation efforts in Zaporizhzhia as a model. Anticipate and prepare for intensified RF retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian border regions and cities (e.g., Kharkiv Oblast, Izium, Izmail, Dnipropetrovsk border regions, including Pokrovske) following the Rostov-on-Don attack and the Unecha NPS strike, especially given Putin's explicit statement. Develop TTPs for effectively managing and interdicting extremely high volumes of incoming UAVs, including low-altitude penetrators. Maintain clear communication to civilians about sheltering protocols (e.g., metro), and counter RF IO attempting to undermine confidence in UAF air defense. Immediately leverage the SBU's success in exposing the FSB agent group in Kherson to conduct a nationwide sweep for similar networks, particularly in areas susceptible to RF fire adjustment. Enhance counter-reconnaissance efforts, specifically targeting 'Gerbera' drones. Task UAF Air Force to monitor tactical aviation activity in the northern direction and develop appropriate responses.
2. Immediate All-Source ISR and Reinforced Defense for Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk), Sumy, Kharkiv Oblast, and Fedorivka; Assess All Active Fronts; Exploit Tactical Successes; Monitor RF Tactical Logistics: Task immediate all-source ISR to confirm or deny RF presence and the extent of urban combat in western Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk), verify claimed encirclement near Sadky in Sumy Oblast, and independently verify claims of active advances near Kozacha Lopan and the claimed dislodgement in Moskovka in Kharkiv Oblast (including verification of Воин DV footage), including destruction of UAF reconnaissance and sabotage groups, and Krasnolimansk. Independently verify RF MoD claims of "liberating" Fedorivka in DNR. Assess RF strike patterns in Kharkiv Oblast (noting 3 injured civilians) and ongoing artillery activity on the Zaporizhzhia front (Konstantinovka, Druzhkovka). Continuously monitor and assess all active ground axes reported by UAF General Staff for RF assault intensity and potential breakthroughs. Specifically, confirm the status of the 11 repelled RF assaults in Kursk and Sumy directions, and the 3 repelled in Kherson. Exploit the successful clearing of Udachne for tactical advantage and IO, and immediately publicize the 93rd Brigade's destruction of an RF logistics bridge and shelter as a demonstration of tactical innovation and effectiveness. Prepare contingency plans to reinforce defensive positions and counter-attacks to prevent a breakthrough and defend these critical operational hubs/units. Integrate intelligence on RF's reliance on informal logistical support for these axes. ОТУ "Харків" to provide continuous updates and tactical recommendations, especially given the high fire danger in Kharkiv Oblast. UAF should monitor for increased use of tactical logistics (e.g., VDV dirt bikes) and adapt interdiction strategies accordingly. UAF should also monitor RF BDA claims (e.g., from Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video) to assess the impact of RF artillery strikes.
3. Exploit RF Fuel Crisis in Luhansk and Crowdfunded Logistics; Expose Black Sea Oil Spill; Maximize Unecha NPS BDA: Task STRATCOM to immediately amplify video evidence of the "gasoline collapse" in Luhansk to degrade RF morale and highlight vulnerabilities. Simultaneously, expose and highlight RF's reliance on crowdfunded civilian support for frontline units (e.g., fundraising for 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment, for UAZ vans) to further highlight RF logistical failures. Task deep strike assets and SOF to prioritize the identification and interdiction of RF fuel convoys and storage sites attempting to alleviate the shortage in Luhansk Oblast. Immediately task STRATCOM to expose and condemn the RF oil spill in the Black Sea, highlighting environmental negligence and potential operational impacts, leveraging this for international support. Publicize and elaborate on the destruction of Unecha NPS pumping stations, emphasizing the impact on RF oil logistics and energy infrastructure.
4. Amplify UAF Deep Strikes and Air Defense Successes, Counter RF Blame Attribution and Internal/Geopolitical Narratives; Manage Rostov-on-Don/Unecha Narratives; Conduct Counter-Espionage and Winter Resilience IO: Task STRATCOM to immediately amplify verified UAF drone strikes on Rostov-on-Don, emphasizing the military intent of the targets while acknowledging with regret any unintended civilian harm. Highlight the confirmed damage to two multi-story buildings and four injured in Rostov-on-Don. Amplify the successful strike on Unecha NPS. Amplify active air defense work over Kyiv, including the Left Bank and central areas, and new threats being engaged, to demonstrate effectiveness and resilience. Publicize the detection and destruction of enemy UAV launch points by the 55th Separate Artillery Brigade. Counter RF's claims of ground advances and encirclements (Sumy, Kharkiv, Pokrovsk, Moskovka, Krasnolimansk, Fedorivka) and claims of destroying AFU armored vehicles and weapons depots in Pokrovske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Publicize the number of repelled RF assaults (e.g., Kherson, Kursk/Sumy). Highlight the liberation of Udachne as a tactical success. Actively promote successful FPV drone procurement through public support, and address the reported insufficiency of donations (as highlighted by Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц") to maintain momentum, noting the appeal from the Ukrainian paratrooper for a DJI Mavic 3 drone. Showcase "Magura" naval drones and Zaporizhzhia's recovery efforts. Immediately address the Parubiy murder confession, emphasizing the suspect's claim of "personal revenge" and denying Russian blackmail to prevent RF co-option of the narrative and manage internal sentiment. Highlight the SBU's success in exposing the FSB agent group in Kherson as a testament to UAF counter-intelligence capabilities. Publicize successful anti-corruption efforts, such as the Zhukov Island land scheme exposure, and the positive impact of HMMWV modifications on soldier safety. Highlight the establishment of the new security and patriotic education lyceum in Kryvyi Rih. Publicize the ongoing support for POW families by the Coordination Headquarters. Amplify fundraising efforts for the 153rd Separate Mechanized Brigade. Counter the potentially negative morale impact of the severely injured soldier video (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС) by emphasizing medical support and valor. Concurrently, prepare and disseminate rapid, fact-based refutations to RF claims of UAF-caused civilian casualties in occupied territories and RF territory. Develop proactive and transparent communication strategies to address public concerns regarding mobilization and TCC operations, directly countering persistent RF information campaigns. Prepare robust counter-narratives to RF's anti-Western geopolitical framing (e.g., Putin-Xi meeting, Power of Siberia-2 memorandum, 22 cooperation documents, "warning shot" for Trump, US Senator Mike Lee's NATO comments, NYT on warming global attitude towards Putin, Fico's EU criticism, US Ambassador to NATO's comments on lack of political will, US threats of sanctions at UNSC, French Ministry of Health preparing for war, Germany/France missile warning system, Putin stating "Russia never had...desire to attack anyone"), framing Putin's non-compromise as maximalist aggression, and countering Putin's claims of RF "never attacking" anyone. Counter RF IO about US operations in South America. Highlight RF's diplomatic desperation in seeking alliances with pariah states (e.g., DPRK, especially the confirmed Putin-Kim meeting, and the reported 2000 North Korean casualties). Immediately refute the North Korean "Rodong Sinmun" article claiming Kim Jong Un met families of soldiers who died "liberating Kursk Oblast" as a blatant fabrication and historical revisionism. Reinforce narratives of soldier welfare (e.g., finding of missing soldier, community support for veterans), Ukrainian military education (Шеф Hayabusa commendations), and transparent legal actions (including anti-theft operations, new business protection portal - "StopTisk" platform, and Bucha war crimes investigations, and the Urzuf corruption case, and the suspected war criminal appointment). Counter former President Yanukovych's statements (from Стрелков Игорь Иванович) with strong refutations of his past policies. Highlight RF's internal weaknesses (e.g., medical system failures, minefield fatalities, internal corruption, ethnic tensions like Shchelkovo police assault, declining first-grader numbers, cemetery plot disputes, migrant issues, rising rental prices) and internal security threats (Izhevsk terror plot, surveillance tech development, lack of RuStore, internal social tensions on nationalism, "underage terrorists" claims). Counter RF attempts to discredit Western analytical bodies. Counter WarGonzo's Transnistria narrative. Expose the humanitarian impact of water scarcity in Donetsk. Actively counter RF IO that attempts to portray UAF air defense as a "fail" in Kyiv, and RF IO that attempts to mislead about children sheltering in metros. Address Slovak PM Fico's comments on UAF oil pipeline strikes and his intent to convey Russia's message to the EU, framing it as an attempt to undermine European unity. Counter RF's use of out-of-context quotes from UAF leadership. Actively promote Zaporizhzhia Oblast's winter preparations for energy infrastructure as a symbol of Ukrainian resilience and foresight. Leverage Finland's symbolic move on the swastika for IO on NATO cohesion. Respond to Polish statements on weapons deliveries, emphasizing continued strategic partnership. Counter RF narratives on Pakistan and Qatar's diplomatic stances.
5. Enhance Anti-EW Capabilities and Threat Advisory; Monitor RF UAV Innovation and External Deliveries; Assess CSTO Exercise Impact: Immediately issue an updated threat advisory to all friendly aircrews regarding RF's demonstrated long-range GPS jamming capability. Task electronic warfare and aviation planners to develop and implement TTPs to mitigate this threat for all air operations, including hardened GPS receivers, alternative navigation systems, and EW-resistant communications. Coordinate with allies regarding the implications of NATO's new Land Forces Headquarters in Finland for regional EW posture. Task TECHINT to analyze the new strike and reconnaissance UAVs showcased by TASS from the Far East and the UAVheli SKY-TRUCK for potential new threats and capabilities. Investigate the "Belarusian drone delivery" claim for any indications of external military-industrial support for RF UAVs. Analyze the LMR strike on a UAV control point for RF targeting TTPs. Monitor French internal security actions (e.g., Tchap messenger switch) for lessons learned in countering foreign intelligence influence in communications. Assess the "Interaction 2025" CSTO exercise for any new RF/CSTO capabilities, joint operational concepts, or political signaling. Analyze camouflage efforts for Su-34E for insights into RF air force modernization. Monitor unmanned systems showcased at 'Vostochny Briz 2023' for R&D trends. Analyze the Germany/France joint missile warning system for potential intelligence sharing and threat assessment benefits.
6. Analyze and Counter RF-China-Mongolia Diplomatic Outcomes; Monitor Putin-Kim Meeting; Highlight Western Readiness; Address Transnistria: Task OSINT and analytical cells to immediately analyze all publicly available information regarding the Putin-Xi Jinping and trilateral Russia-China-Mongolia meetings, focusing on any military, economic, security, and AI agreements, especially the "Power of Siberia-2" memorandum and the 22 cooperation documents, and China's new visa-free regime. Develop and disseminate counter-narratives to any joint statements or agreements that attempt to undermine international support for Ukraine, project a cohesive anti-Western bloc, distort historical events, or impact global energy security. Closely monitor developments regarding a potential Putin-Kim Jong Un meeting, especially with Kim's arrival in Beijing after missile visits and the confirmed plan for them to be together at a parade and reception with further discussions, assessing its implications for military aid (especially DPRK missile technology and further DPRK personnel deployment) and geopolitical alignment. Highlight reports of increased Western readiness (e.g., France's medical preparations, French Ministry of Health preparing for war, Germany/France missile warning system) to demonstrate resolve and counter RF's geopolitical narratives. Formulate a robust diplomatic and IO response to RF attempts to destabilize Moldova via Transnistria. Assess the implications of Turkey's "Steel Dome" deployment for regional security. Coordinate with allies to address Slovak PM Fico's statements and attempts by RF to create divisions within the EU. Monitor Putin's statements on ZNPP cooperation and discussions with Trump for any diplomatic openings or IO opportunities. Monitor the impact of the Afghanistan earthquake on global humanitarian and diplomatic priorities. Respond to RF leveraging of European gas storage concerns. Analyze the implications of BRICS' common list of "traditional values." Monitor Poland's evolving stance on weapons support, and the implications for military aid. Monitor developments in Pakistan-Russia ties, and Qatar's stance on a summit. Counter RF IO about US operations in South America.

//END REPORT//