Archived operational intelligence briefing
TIME: 011033Z SEP 25
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
RF:
UAF:
1.4. Intelligence Gaps from Previous Report Addressed/Updated:
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
Intentions:
Courses of Action (COA) Currently Observed:
Ukrainian force posture and readiness:
Recent tactical successes or setbacks:
Resource requirements and constraints:
Propaganda and disinformation campaigns:
Public sentiment and morale factors:
International support and diplomatic developments:
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
Sustained Multi-Domain Deep Strikes and Frontline Pressure (with Renewed Focus on Kyiv, Civilian/Foreign Infrastructure, and Persistent UAVs with Targeted Military-Linked Infrastructure): RF will continue massed drone and missile attacks on critical civilian infrastructure (energy, transport, water) in Southern, Central, and Northern Ukraine, particularly Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Kyiv Oblasts. The massed drone attack on Kyiv Oblast confirms this renewed focus. This will likely extend to non-military foreign-affiliated infrastructure (as seen with the British Council). These will be augmented by tactical kinetic strikes (FPV drones, artillery, guided bombs like KABs, Krasnoarmiysk direction artillery, drone bombing in Zaporizhzhia direction) on UAF deployment points and frontline positions across the Donbas, Pokrovsk, Kupiansk, Lyman, Siversk, and Dnipropetrovsk axes. RF will continue to use MiG-31K launches as a psychological and strategic threat (even if brief). RF will likely attempt to exploit any IAMD gaps in Crimea created by UAF strikes to conduct its own counter-strikes or ISR, while also bolstering remaining AD assets. UAF deep strikes into RF territory will prompt continued RF air defense responses. New UAV alerts in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts and KAB launches in Donetsk indicate this is an ongoing, widespread tactic. RF will likely continue to claim destruction of high-value UAF/Western assets (Patriot, HIMARS) to project battlefield success. Partial power outages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast indicate this COA is already having an impact. NEW: RF will continue to specifically target energy facilities linked to UAF military use (Krasny Lyman) and actively counter UAF automated systems (robotic platforms, UAV control points). Persistent RF UAV threats in Sumy Oblast will continue to fix UAF forces in the north. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Localized Ground Probes and Consolidation with Persistent IO and Enhanced Internal Security (Despite High Losses, with Expanded Territorial Claims and Historical Revisionism): RF will maintain localized ground pressure along the Donetsk, Pokrovsk, Kupiansk, and Lyman axes, focusing on consolidating recent gains (e.g., Zarichne, Pisciy coal mine, Siversk flanks, Kamyshevakha liberation claim, Shandryholove "cutting") and conducting further reconnaissance-in-force. RF is demonstrating a willingness to incur high casualties for these gains, as evidenced by the Kupiansk testimony. This will be accompanied by an intensified information operations campaign, leveraging the outcomes of the SCO summit and bilateral meetings to portray RF's international strength and Western decline (Tianjin Declaration, Greece's stance, Lukashenko's statements, Putin's global governance initiative, alleged von der Leyen EW incident, Karin Kneissl's derogatory comments), while continuing to discredit Ukrainian leadership and allies through PSYOP (e.g., "UAF drone killed surrendering soldier", "summons at funerals"). RF will also intensify internal security measures, targeting alleged collaborators and tightening information control (FSB arrests, discussion on mobile phones in schools, new "extremist materials" law, migrant tracking app, new school ranking criteria, prosecution of journalists). RF will continue to promote narratives of domestic stability ("Day of Knowledge," Kerch Bridge video, Duma psychological aid proposal). RF sources will continue to actively deny and cast doubt on any "Russian trace" in the Parubiy assassination, directly counter-messaging UAF claims. NEW: RF will explicitly propagate maximalist territorial claims (Odesa, Mykolaiv) through media. RF will actively re-write historical narratives through new textbooks (Medinsky) and projects ("War in the East" by Kiselyov) to influence youth and garner support for current actions. RF will project a powerful anti-Western alliance (Xi, Putin, Kim Jong Un parade) to reinforce its geopolitical narrative. RF ground operations in the South-Donetsk direction will be accompanied by amplified claims of territorial gains (163 sq km, 7 settlements) to boost domestic morale and international perception. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
CSTO Military Signaling and Border Pressure (with Emphasis on Deterrence against Western Intervention and EW Capabilities, and Increased Western Counter-Intelligence): RF will continue to use CSTO exercises in Belarus as a strategic signaling tool, maintaining a credible threat to Ukraine's northern border. The integration of "special military operation" experience into these exercises (confirmed by MoD Russia, and Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition) indicates a more direct and relevant threat. RF will also continue localized border operations and drone/KAB strikes in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts (as evidenced by new UAV alerts), aiming to fix UAF forces in the north and degrade civilian resilience in border regions. RF will leverage statements from Western nations, such as Germany's, explicitly stating no troop deployment, to reinforce its deterrence narrative against direct Western intervention. RF will likely continue to demonstrate or hint at its EW capabilities (as in the alleged von der Leyen incident) as a means of strategic deterrence and psychological pressure against NATO/EU. This could extend to further disruption of air navigation in border regions or over the Black Sea. RF PVO successfully downing a UAF UAV near Luhansk indicates continued active border defense against deep strikes. NEW: The European Commission's increased funding for Lithuania to monitor Russian trains to Kaliningrad indicates a growing Western counter-intelligence focus on RF logistics and movements along its borders, which may prompt RF countermeasures or increased obfuscation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
Coordinated Strategic Escalation: Massed Combined-Arms Offensive and WMD Threat (Utilizing Belarus/SCO Alliance): RF initiates a large-scale, coordinated combined-arms offensive on one or more axes (e.g., a renewed push from the north, or a major breakthrough in Donbas/Zaporizhzhia), simultaneously launching a massive wave of precision-guided munitions and ballistic missiles (including Kinzhdal strikes) against Ukraine's remaining critical infrastructure, C2 nodes, and major troop concentrations. This offensive would be coupled with explicit and credible threats of tactical nuclear weapon use (potentially derived from CSTO exercise planning), especially if Western support for Ukraine continues or if UAF attempts to counter the offensive. This could be coordinated to leverage diplomatic support from the SCO bloc, aiming to present a unified front against Western intervention. The intention would be to overwhelm UAF defenses, force a collapse of international support, and impose a negotiated settlement on RF terms. NEW: The RF IO projecting a powerful anti-Western alliance with Xi, Putin, and Kim Jong Un participating in a parade could precede or accompany such an escalation, signaling a united front against Western intervention. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
Hybrid Escalation: Targeted Assassinations, Cyberattacks on Civilian Infrastructure, and International Provocations (Leveraging Internal Control and Information Dominance with Enhanced EW, and Exploiting Personal Vulnerabilities): RF conducts a series of high-profile, targeted assassinations of key Ukrainian political or military figures (beyond the Parubiy incident), aimed at creating internal chaos and leadership vacuums. The confirmed external instruction/facilitation of the Parubiy assassination heightens the risk of further, more impactful, state-sponsored assassinations. However, the SBU's denial of RF involvement introduces ambiguity, which RF may exploit to sow confusion while still pursuing such actions. NEW: The reported motive of the Parubiy assassination suspect (retrieving his son's body) suggests RF's capability and willingness to exploit personal vulnerabilities for hybrid operations, increasing the danger of future targeted actions. Simultaneously, RF launches sophisticated, widespread cyberattacks designed to cripple critical civilian infrastructure (e.g., power grid, communication networks, financial systems) across Ukraine, potentially extending to key Western support nations. This would be combined with overt acts of international provocation, such as naval blockades of Black Sea shipping or direct interference with humanitarian aid convoys, and aggressive diplomatic rhetoric to isolate Ukraine further. RF's increasingly tight internal security and information control (e.g., migrant tracking app, "extremist materials" law, new history textbooks) would be leveraged to suppress any internal dissent or information leaks regarding these operations. RF EW capabilities (as allegedly used against von der Leyen's plane) could be employed to further isolate targeted regions or disrupt C2 during these operations. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
Black Sea Domination and Economic Strangulation with NATO Provocation (Testing NATO's Eastern Flank Commitments and Western Surveillance): RF significantly escalates its military presence in the Black Sea, effectively blockading all Ukrainian maritime trade (civilian and military) through intensified mine-laying and overt naval interdiction, potentially extending into international waters. This could be accompanied by direct provocations against NATO naval or air assets conducting ISR in the Black Sea, potentially leading to an incident designed to test NATO's resolve and unity, particularly in light of new Western DIB investments in Bulgaria. The goal would be to economically strangle Ukraine while simultaneously attempting to fracture NATO's response and test the commitment to the Eastern flank. NEW: Increased Western surveillance of Kaliningrad transit by Lithuania (funded by EU) could be perceived by RF as an escalation, prompting more aggressive responses or counter-surveillance measures in the Black Sea or Baltic region, further increasing the risk of provocation. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
//END REPORT//
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