Situation Report

SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - 311530Z AUG 25 (UPDATE 22)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: RF continues a multi-domain deep strike posture, with confirmed massed UAV activity targeting critical civilian infrastructure across several Ukrainian Oblasts. Tactical drone usage for kinetic strikes on the frontlines is ongoing, with new reports of UAF counter-convoy FPV drone strikes in rural areas. Ballistic missile threats persist. Civilian maritime traffic in the Black Sea remains hazardous due to mines. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy reiterates intent for long-range strikes into Russia, confirmed by UAF sources using "Flamingo" missiles. RF President Putin's continued presence at the SCO Summit emphasizes diplomatic efforts, now with confirmed meetings with Armenian PM Pashinyan and other high-level Russian officials. UAF SOF report counter-offensive actions in Sumy Oblast. UAF sources amplify reports of RF forces encircled near Dobropillya, Donetsk Oblast, while RF claims capture of a major coal mine in Donetsk. RF claims of deep strike on DIB targets require verification. IAEA experts were denied access to a newly constructed dam near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) by RF forces. Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) exercises have commenced in Belarus. UAF GUR claims successful drone strikes against multiple RF radar and air defense systems in Crimea, indicating continued deep strike capabilities into occupied territories. RF claims that "moped" (Shahed) drone attacks on Dnipro have been neutralized. Polish PM Tusk re-affirms that no concessions to Putin will bring security to Europe. Animated RF map of strikes on Ukraine (30-31 AUG) published, indicating continued widespread RF activity. UAF reports double-kill of RF brothers in Marfopil, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF "Ivan Franko Group" publishes video of successful FPV drone strike on RF convoy logistics. UAF Air Force reports new drone activity towards Kyiv Oblast. Renewed OSINT reports of two RF helicopters destroyed at Simferopol airport. UAF sources confirm destruction of another RF Supercam reconnaissance UAV. RF sources continue to highlight EU internal deliberations regarding frozen Russian assets, attempting to portray disunity. NEW: RF continues its multi-day aerial attacks on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast using various weapons systems. UAF Air Defense is active in Kyiv Oblast against enemy UAVs. RF MoD claims destruction of a UAV over Bryansk Oblast. RF source claims Russian offensive in Donbas has liberated over 80 settlements over summer months. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - New RF attacks on Dnipropetrovsk, UAF AD in Kyiv Oblast, RF claims UAV destruction in Bryansk, RF claims Donbas liberation.)

• Northern Ukraine (Chernihiv Oblast - Nizhyn): RF massed drone attack (Shahed variants) confirmed on a critical infrastructure enterprise, resulting in widespread power and water outages. UAF Air Force reports new strike UAV activity (Shahed variants) in Chernihiv Oblast, course towards Kyiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)

• Central Ukraine (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - Ivanivka): Kotsnews (RF source) previously claimed RF "Vostok" Group destroyed a UAF tank near Ivanivka using aerial reconnaissance (video evidence). "Воин DV" (RF source, 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, 36th Army Group "Vostok") publishes new video evidence, claiming destruction of UAF personnel and vehicles in the Novomoskovsk area of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, near Novoselivka, using drones. UAF Air Force reports missile danger in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. DeepState (UAF source) reports RF advances near Maliyivka in Dnipropetropvsk Oblast. "Николаевский Ванёк" (UAF source) reports 4 RF "mopeds" (Shahed variants) flying one after another through Synelnykove, course towards/through Dnipro, warning of potential loud explosions. STERNENKO (UAF source) confirms Dnipro is under Shahed attack. РБК-Україна reports an explosion in Dnipro amid an air raid alert. "Николаевский Ванёк" (UAF source) reports "minus" for the "mopeds" over Dnipro, implying neutralization. NEW: UAF Dnipropetrovsk OVA (Serhiy Lysak) reports enemy attacks on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast using various weapons throughout the day, providing photo evidence of destruction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - New UAF report of multi-weapon attacks on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.)

• Eastern Ukraine (Donbas - Redkodub, Krasnolymansk direction): "Старше Эдды" (RF source) claims RF forces "finished off" remaining UAF personnel from the 3rd Army Corps near Redkodub. "Старше Эдды" also publishes an internal critique of military deception. UAF Air Force reports missile danger in Donetsk Oblast. "Операция Z" (RF source) claims RF forces have advanced and consolidated positions under Maliyivka and in Zarichne. DeepState (UAF source) confirms RF advances in Zarichne, Donetsk Oblast. STERNENKO (UAF source) publishes video of UAF "VIDARR" FPV drone striking 5 RF personnel attempting to escape on the Lyman direction. TASS (citing MoD RF) claims RF Southern Group of Forces hit an "Akatsiya" self-propelled artillery system with a "Lancet" drone and destroyed a UAV control point with "Msta-B" howitzers near Siversk, DNR. STERNENKO (UAF source) publishes video of UAF "Signum" unit of the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade destroying enemy forces on the Lyman direction. Colonelcassad publishes an animated map showing RF strikes across Ukraine, including the Donbas region, between 30-31 AUG. NEW: Kotsnews (RF source) publishes a video claiming the Russian offensive in Donbas is gaining momentum, having liberated over 80 settlements in the summer months (June-August). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - New RF claim of significant Donbas advances over summer.)

• Eastern Ukraine (Donbas - Pokrovsk direction): "Военкор Котенок" (RF source) claims a successful FPV drone ambush by RF operators against a vehicle on a road in the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiysk) direction. TASS (citing DNR advisor Kimakovsky) claims Kyiv has redeployed "Azov" personnel to the Krasnoarmiysk sector. "Народная милиция ДНР" claims the RF 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (MSR) is destroying UAF logistics and EW on the front line. TASS (citing Denis Pushilin) claims RF reconnaissance groups have entered the city of Dimitrov, DNR. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reports to President Zelenskyy that the Pokrovsk direction is where the Russian army concentrates its greatest efforts and suffers the greatest losses. "Сливочный каприз" (RF source) posts geo-located photos of Konstantinovka - Rusin Yar, and Krasnoarmiysk - Artemivka (Sofiyivka), indicating continued RF activity or observation in these areas. "Операция Z" (RF source) claims FPV drones of the "O" (Otvazhnye) Group have taken control of roads leading to Pokrovsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)

• Eastern Ukraine (Donbas - Kamyshevakha/Novoselivka/Dobropillya): Alex Parker Returns (RF source) publishes a video claiming RF forces captured the 'Pisciy' coal mine in the village of Peski, Donetsk Oblast. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" (UAF source) amplifies a report from OSUV "Dnipro" claiming RF forces are encircled near Dobropillya. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" (RF source) publishes drone footage of explosions, claiming "Target hit" and "PU byla" (launch vehicle was). "Воин DV" (RF source) claims drone operators from the 5th Tank Guards Brigade, 36th Army, "Vostok" Group, are "severely thinning out" enemy combat formations in the Novoselivka area (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" reports the "double-kill" of two RF brothers in Marfopil, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating continued engagements in the area. NEW: "Два майора" (RF source) publishes video footage of artillery strikes on entrenched positions and structures on the Zaporizhzhia front, confirming continued engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - New RF artillery strike video on Zaporizhzhia front.)

• Southern Ukraine (Odesa Oblast / Chornomorsk): Widespread reports/evidence of RF massed drone attacks on Odesa District overnight, confirmed targeting four DTEK energy facilities, with 29,000 residents without electricity and one wounded. "Colonelcassad" specifically claims a "Geran-2" strike on a railway ferry complex in Illichivsk (Chornomorsk). "Военкор Котенок" confirmed strikes on a port terminal and energy infrastructure in Chornomorsk. The Mayor of Chornomorsk, Vasyl Huliaiev, states this was the "most massive attack on Chornomorsk since 2022." A civilian vessel detonated a mine near Odesa's coast. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" (RF source) claims RF struck railway ferry infrastructure in Illichivsk. MoD Russia via TASS claims a strike on port infrastructure used by UAF. РБК-Україна reports that water supply in Chornomorsk will be on a schedule following drone attacks. "Два майора" (RF source) reports the dry cargo ship NS PRIDE, flying the flag of Belize, hit a mine off Odesa's coast near Chornomorsk (Illichivsk). "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" (RF source) publishes video claiming RF forces hit an Azerbaijani vessel carrying military cargo and explosives for Ukraine in the Fishing Port of Illichivsk. Colonelcassad publishes an animated map showing RF strikes across Ukraine, including the Odesa region, between 30-31 AUG. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)

• Southern Ukraine (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): UAF Air Force reports missile danger in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. UAF Zaporizhzhia OVA issues an "ATTENTION" alert, and provides video and detailed report on consequences of 30 AUG attack, including civilian casualties (children, elderly), 182 hospitalized (some serious), and damage to 45 multi-story buildings (windows, electricity, gas). Air Raid Alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted. RF source "Филолог в засаде" publishes a video of RF reconnaissance thanking "subscribers" for a DJI Mavic 3T drone and NCSU. 🇺🇦 Zaporizhzhia OVA publishes a video on students and teachers preparing for "underground" schools, highlighting resilience and adaptations to security threats. РБК-Україна and STERNENKO report that IAEA experts were denied access by RF forces to a newly constructed dam near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. 🇺🇦 Zaporizhzhia OVA provides a weekly summary for the Zaporizhzhia Front. UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" reports the "double-kill" of two RF brothers in Marfopil, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. NEW: "Два майора" (RF source) publishes video footage of artillery strikes on entrenched positions and structures on the Zaporizhzhia front, confirming continued engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - New RF artillery strike video on Zaporizhzhia front.)

• Southern Ukraine (Kryvyi Rih area): "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" (RF source) claims RF forces hit gas infrastructure near Kryvyi Rih with "Geran" drones yesterday. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - No change.)

• Southern Ukraine (Kherson Oblast - Dniprovskyi district): STERNENKO (UAF source) reports a woman was killed by an RF drone in Dniprovskyi district of Kherson. Colonelcassad publishes an animated map showing RF strikes across Ukraine, including the Kherson region, between 30-31 AUG. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)

• Eastern Ukraine (Kharkiv Oblast): UAF Air Force reports missile danger in Kharkiv Oblast. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 issues an informational message regarding the situation. Colonelcassad publishes an animated map showing RF strikes across Ukraine, including the Kharkiv region, between 30-31 AUG. NEW: "Оперативний ЗСУ" (UAF source) publishes FPV drone footage claiming the destruction of RF equipment, including a BTR/armored vehicle and a Nona self-propelled gun, and engaging motorized infantry on motorcycles in Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - New UAF FPV drone strike BDA in Kharkiv Oblast.)

• RF Internal (Moscow Oblast - Balashikha): ASTRA reports a large fire in Balashikha, Moscow Oblast, with "explosions heard," covering 4000 sq meters. The Balashikha Experimental Chemical Plant (BOKHZ) is located in the fire area. TASS video footage confirmed the scale of the fire. TASS reports that open burning at the warehouse fire in Balashikha has been localized. Оперативний ЗСУ publishes video and claims the fire was localized at 4000 sq meters, with neighboring enterprises also "fried." РБК-Україна reports that "Putin's palace" almost burned down during his trip to China, framing the Balashikha fire as a significant event affecting RF leadership. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)

• RF Internal (Kursk Oblast - Belovsky District): ASTRA (citing acting governor) reports 6 people, including 2 police officers, were wounded in Belovsky District, Kursk Oblast, after a Ukrainian attack. NEW: TASS reports a bronze Kolobok (a Russian folk character) will be the central figure of Pioneer Park in Kursk, an unrelated social update. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - No change in military relevance.)

• RF Internal (Kursk Oblast - Kursk Nuclear Power Plant): "Военкор Котенок" (RF source) claims the third power unit of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant has had its capacity restored, specifically the transformer and turbogenerator. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - No change.)

• RF Internal (Tula Oblast): UAF GUR previously claimed destruction of an explosives warehouse in Tula Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)

• RF Internal (Nizhny Novgorod Oblast - Balakhna): ASTRA and TASS report 5 people died from surrogate alcohol poisoning in Balakhna, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, with a criminal case opened. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)

• RF Internal (Tuva Republic): ASTRA reports women in Tuva were paid almost half as much as men for marathon prizes, highlighting potential internal social/economic disparity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)

• RF Internal (General): TASS reports over 60% of Russian bloggers plan to transition to the "Max" platform. TASS also reports on Eric Trump (Donald Trump's son) did not rule out running for president, and 39 Poles were banned from entering RF. TASS reports traffic police fines are being forcibly collected from actor Aleksandr Golovin. TASS reports Russians will be able to opt-out of mass phone calls from September 1st. ASTRA reports a court in RF blocked the premium taxi service "Wheely" due to "violation of anti-terrorist requirements." TASS reports on gifts to teachers and state employees, indicating internal regulations. ASTRA reports participants of an action commemorating repressed Poles were banned from entering Russia for five years. Север.Реалии posts a commentary on Russian literature, reflecting a bleak perspective on the country's trajectory. NEW: ASTRA reports Russian shops are selling iPhones without Rustore as "defective." TASS reports Murmansk Health Ministry denied media reports about abortion ban. ASTRA reports a third criminal case against political prisoner Maria Ponomarenko. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - New RF internal social/political issues and media reports.)

• RF Internal (Donetsk - Separatist Territory): "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts a photo commemorating the death of the first DNR head, Alexander Zakharchenko, killed in a cafe explosion on 31 August 2018. Mash на Донбассе (RF source) publishes a video of a solemn ceremony commemorating Aleksandr Zakharchenko in Donetsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)

• RF Internal (Luhansk - Separatist Territory): Mash на Донбассе (RF source) reports a severe shortage of AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline in LPR, leading to huge queues at gas stations. This indicates a potential logistical or economic issue within occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)

• RF Internal (Bryansk Oblast): NEW: AV БогомаZ (RF source) reports that RF Air Defense detected and destroyed a fixed-wing UAV over Bryansk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - New RF claim of UAV destruction.)

• Occupied Territories (Crimea): РБК-Україна reports, citing Ukrainian intelligence (GUR), successful drone strikes targeting multiple Russian military radar installations in Crimea, including an 'RT-70' radar, a 'GLONASS complex in a dome', and a 'RLS 96L6-AP ZRK S-400' (radar for an S-400 air defense missile system). РБК-Україна publishes a photo with a caption reporting an OSINT analyst's claim that drones attacked Simferopol, destroying two RF helicopters. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)

• Occupied Territories (Mariupol): Mash на Донбассе (RF source) publishes a video of a man "waving an axe" near a beer stall in Mariupol, framing it as "anti-advertising for beer." This is likely an attempt to portray social disorder or mundane issues in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)

• Occupied Territories (Rivne Oblast): Операция Z (RF source, citing "Военкоры Русской Весны") publishes a photo and claims that "man-hunters" (referring to Ukrainian recruiters) reached a church in Rivne Oblast, where a summons was delivered directly during a funeral service. This is a PSYOP aiming to discredit UAF mobilization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)

• International: Colonelcassad reports on Xi-Modi negotiations in China, emphasizing strengthening relations and multipolarity, and crediting Trump with facilitating the meeting. Kotsnews also mentions the China summit and "exchange of territories." Colonelcassad shows footage of leaders arriving at the SCO summit in China, including Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian. Alex Parker Returns shows Russian cosmonauts congratulating Kyrgyzstan on Independence Day, and uses "Dragon and Elephant" analogy to promote unity with China/India. "Операция Z" reports on new Polish regulations affecting Ukrainian refugees, claiming Ukrainians are "outraged." TASS reports Germany has removed the question of possibly sending its troops to Ukraine from the agenda, citing Bild. РБК-Україна reports Hungary does not plan to lift its veto on Ukraine's EU accession despite Trump's intervention. "Операция Z" (RF source) amplifies news that "benefits for Ukrainians in Germany will be cut and rules tightened in 2026." РБК-Україна reports Modi met Xi Jinping in China and discussed "friendship of elephant and dragon." TASS (citing Peskov) claims Europeans "hinder efforts to bring the situation in Ukraine to a peaceful course" and "put spokes in the wheels." TASS, Colonelcassad, Операция Z, and Alex Parker Returns confirm Putin's arrival at the SCO summit in China, with video footage of his handshake with Xi Jinping. Басурин о главном highlights over 3000 journalists covering the SCO summit. TASS, Colonelcassad, and ASTRA provide new video footage of Putin's arrival and participation in the SCO summit reception, including a handshake with Xi Jinping, re-emphasizing the diplomatic focus. The EU is reportedly considering new voting rules in foreign policy to bypass Hungary's veto. The USA calls on Russia to pursue peace or face sanctions. Fighterbomber (RF source) publishes a video commentary expressing frustration over France's perceived involvement in the conflict and the 'silence' of others. TASS reports that Merz (German politician) stated no one is currently discussing sending ground troops to Ukraine. Colonelcassad reports on Lithuania considering restoring dried swamps on the border with Belarus for security reasons. "Два майора" (RF source) reports US State Department approved sale of PATRIOT air defense systems to Denmark. Рыбарь (RF source) posts an infographic about "Baltic Sea in focus" and the "Northern Coasts-2025" exercise. РБК-Україна reports on Tusk and the Head of the European Commission visiting the border with Belarus, despite intelligence warnings. "Операция Z" (RF source) reports that CSTO exercises have begun in Belarus, under the theme "Strength in Unity," involving military parades and displays of readiness. TASS reports Putin met with Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan, discussing bilateral and regional issues. DeepState (UAF source) reports Hungary will continue to obstruct Ukraine's EU membership talks. TASS reports the Russian delegation has returned to its residence in Tianjin after the day's working program at the SCO summit. TASS also publishes video of Putin meeting with Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Security Council of Russia, at the SCO summit. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF source) amplifies a Guardian report that the USA called on Russia to pursue peace or face sanctions. РБК-Україна quotes Polish PM Tusk stating that "no concessions to Putin will bring security to Europe," a direct counter to RF narratives and a re-affirmation of resolute international stance. TASS reports Peskov hopes Putin and Aliyev (Azerbaijan) will meet at SCO tomorrow. TASS reports Putin agreed on additional bilateral meetings with heads of various states and governments. Воин DV (RF source) reports continued discussions in Germany regarding further militarization. Операция Z (RF source) highlights the EU grappling with frozen Russian assets, attempting to portray EU weakness or disunity. РБК-Україна reports that China and India have agreed to resume direct flights for the first time in five years, signaling improved bilateral relations between two major SCO members. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF source) amplifies the Bild report that Germany has decided against sending troops to Ukraine after the war, focusing instead on financial and military support. NEW: Colonelcassad reports 39 Poles were banned from entering RF for 5 years due to an unauthorized action in "Mednoye" memorial complex near Tver, indicating RF's internal security measures and international relations. "Два майора" (RF source) posts a photo with "Corsairs" caption, likely a symbolic reference to naval power. TASS reports Karasin (RF official) made an ironic comment about Lithuanian officials' initiative to re-swamp borders with Belarus. "Два майора" (RF source) states that CSTO exercises will practice planning the use of nuclear weapons, a significant and concerning declaration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - New RF entry ban on Poles, RF symbolic naval power IO, RF ironic commentary on Lithuania, CSTO nuclear planning statement.)

• Kyiv (Civilian Casualties): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, and STERNENKO report on the funeral in Kyiv for 2-year-old Angelina and her mother Nadezhda, killed by a Russian missile on August 28. РБК-Україна and Басурин о главном report on the death and funeral of Andriy Parubiy. ASTRA publishes an emotional video about a dog, Jessi, waiting for her owner who died in a RF attack on Kyiv, highlighting the human (and animal) cost of the conflict. NEW: РБК-Україна reports enemy UAV movement in Kyiv Oblast, with UAF Air Defense actively working. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - New enemy UAV activity and UAF AD in Kyiv Oblast.)

• Black Sea (ISR): Военкор Котенок (RF source) reports an American Northrop Grumman RQ-4B Global Hawk (FORTE10) operating over the Black Sea at 15850 meters. "Николаевский Ванёк" (UAF source) publishes video of a successful launch of "Flamingo" missiles (likely Ukrainian-produced) from a coastal defense position. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" (UAF source) also publishes a video of what appears to be a "Flamingo" missile launch. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" (RF source) publishes video, captioning it with Zelenskyy's announcement of new strikes deep into Russian territory, and showing what appears to be a missile launch from a coastal area and a distant impact. This RF source is likely framing UAF missile launches as a response to Zelenskyy's statement. WarGonzo (RF source) publishes a video, "Anti-crisis flight of 'Flamingo' shown in Ukraine," showing a missile launch near a body of water at sunrise, likely referring to the same UAF "Flamingo" missile launches. STERNENKO (UAF source) publishes a video claiming the destruction of another Supercam reconnaissance UAV, highlighting continued UAF counter-ISR capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)

• Sumi Oblast (Counter-Offensive): "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (UAF source) publishes dynamic GoPro footage from Ukrainian special forces of the "Shybenyk Squad" (part of GUR MOD "KRAKEN") conducting counter-offensive actions in the Sumy direction, showing soldiers clearing rooms and discovering a hidden cache in a destroyed building. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" publishes new drone footage from a first-person perspective, observing military vehicles (trucks, possibly armored vehicles) moving on a dirt road, and showing a damaged/abandoned military vehicle, suggesting continued reconnaissance or active operations in a conflict zone. Colonelcassad publishes an animated map showing RF strikes across Ukraine, including the Sumy region, between 30-31 AUG. NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF source) posts a video about the "Unknown history of Sumy region: 'black gold' of the XVII century," referring to saltpeter production, which is a historical/cultural item and not directly military activity, but may reflect local resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - New UAF historical/cultural post about Sumy region.)

• Chernobyl Zone (RHB Reconnaissance): UAF General Staff publishes photos of RHB (Radiological, Chemical, Biological) reconnaissance units from the 704th Separate RHB Protection Brigade (Support Forces) operating in the Chernobyl exclusion zone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Aerial Operations: Continued widespread RF drone attacks and deep strikes, along with reported UAF UAV neutralizations and RF claims of drone-based strikes, indicate continued favorable weather conditions for air- and ground-based operations. Nighttime operations are confirmed. Missile danger has been reported across a wider range of Oblasts, though air raid alerts for ballistic threats have now been lifted for some regions. The presence of a Global Hawk over the Black Sea indicates clear conditions conducive to high-altitude ISR. RF MoD via TASS claims "Rubicon" center operators shot down UAF FlyEye and Vector drones. The confirmed Shahed attack on Dnipro indicates continued favorable weather for low-altitude drone operations. UAF claim of neutralizing drones over Dnipro suggests continued favorable conditions for both RF drone operations and UAF IAMD. UAF Air Force reports new strike UAV activity (Shahed variants) in Chernihiv Oblast, course towards Kyiv Oblast, indicating continued favorable conditions for RF aerial infiltration. Colonelcassad's animated map shows widespread RF drone and missile activity over 30-31 AUG, further confirming favorable conditions. STERNENKO's report of a destroyed Supercam further confirms continued UAV operations by both sides. NEW: UAF Air Defense working in Kyiv Oblast against enemy UAVs, and RF Air Defense destroying a UAV over Bryansk Oblast, both confirm continued favorable conditions for aerial operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Continued favorable conditions for aerial operations for both sides.)
• Naval Operations: The report of a civilian vessel hitting a mine near Odesa's coast, and the video of Ukrainian "Flamingo" missile launches from a coastal defense position, indicate continued hazards and active naval/coastal defense operations in the Black Sea. The specific identification of the vessel NS PRIDE being affected by a mine near Chornomorsk confirms the severe threat. RF claims of striking an Azerbaijani vessel carrying military cargo in the Illichivsk Fishing Port further emphasize active naval/port area engagement and associated hazards. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)
• Space Weather: TASS reports strong magnetic storms are forecast for 02 SEP due to solar plasma ejection. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
  • Impact Assessment: Strong magnetic storms could potentially affect satellite communications, GPS reliability, and sensitive electronic equipment, impacting both friendly and enemy C2 and ISR capabilities. This is a potential disruptor for precision-guided munitions and long-range communications. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Analytical Judgment.)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF:

  • Reconnaissance & Strike Operations (Expanded Geographical Reach & Capabilities): RF is conducting massed drone attacks on Odesa (energy/port infrastructure), Chornomorsk (energy/port/railway ferry infrastructure, now impacting water supply), a critical infrastructure enterprise in Nizhyn (energy/water), and a deep strike on Dnipro is confirmed, though UAF claims neutralization. A severe attack on Zaporizhzhia (30 AUG) is detailed. RF also claims a woman killed by a drone in Kherson, and gas infrastructure hit near Kryvyi Rih. RF continues to pose a ballistic missile threat. MoD Russia via TASS claims a strike on port infrastructure used by UAF. RF MoD via TASS claims Rubicon operators shot down UAF FlyEye and Vector drones, indicating counter-UAV capabilities. RF (ASTRA, TASS via acting governor) claims a Ukrainian attack in Kursk Oblast wounded 6 (including 2 police). TASS (citing MoD RF) claims RF Southern Group of Forces hit an "Akatsiya" self-propelled artillery system with a "Lancet" drone and destroyed a UAV control point with "Msta-B" howitzers near Siversk. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" (RF source) publishes drone footage claiming a target hit ("PU была" - launch vehicle was). "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" (RF source) claims RF forces hit an Azerbaijani vessel carrying military cargo and explosives for Ukraine in the Fishing Port of Illichivsk. MoD Russia releases a video highlighting an RF reconnaissance engineer team leader, "Magarik," explaining their role in securing areas, identifying and neutralizing drones caught in trap nets, and emphasizing clearing routes for troop advancement. This indicates a focus on tactical drone countermeasures and route reconnaissance. Colonelcassad's animated map confirms widespread RF kinetic activity. UAF Air Force reports new strike UAV activity (Shahed variants) in Chernihiv Oblast, course towards Kyiv Oblast, confirming continued RF drone deep strike capability towards the capital. NEW: UAF Dnipropetrovsk OVA reports multi-weapon attacks on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. AV БогомаZ reports RF AD destroyed a UAV over Bryansk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - New RF attacks on Dnipropetrovsk, RF claims UAV destruction in Bryansk.)
  • Force Dispositions (Eastern Front): RF sources ("Старше Эдды", TASS citing DNR advisor, "Операция Z") claim tactical successes against UAF 3rd Army Corps remnants near Redkodub, the redeployment of "Azov" personnel to the Krasnoarmiysk sector, and advances in Zarichne and under Maliyivka. TASS (citing Denis Pushilin) claims RF reconnaissance groups have entered Dimitrov, DNR. DeepState (UAF source) corroborates RF advances in Zarichne. "Сливочный каприз" (RF source) posts geo-located photos of Konstantinovka - Rusin Yar, and Krasnoarmiysk - Artemivka (Sofiyivka), indicating continued RF activity or observation in these areas. "Операция Z" (RF source) claims FPV drones of the "O" (Otvazhnye) Group have taken control of roads leading to Pokrovsk. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) publishes a video claiming the capture of the 'Pisciy' coal mine in Peski, Donetsk Oblast, indicating continued ground offensive pressure. "Воин DV" (RF source) claims drone operators from the 5th Tank Guards Brigade, 36th Army, "Vostok" Group, are "severely thinning out" enemy combat formations in the Novoselivka area (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). NEW: Kotsnews (RF source) claims the Russian offensive in Donbas has liberated over 80 settlements over summer. "Два майора" (RF source) posts video of artillery strikes on entrenched positions and structures on the Zaporizhzhia front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - New RF claims of significant advances in Donbas over summer, new video of artillery strikes on Zaporizhzhia front.)
  • Force Generation/Logistics/Technological Advancement: The continued reliance on COTS drones for tactical ISR within RF forces (DJI Mavic 3 request in previous report, new video from "Филолог в засаде" of reconnaissance receiving Mavic 3T and NCSU, and a new video from "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" showing a Ukrainian soldier requesting Mavic 3 drones) indicates a persistent gap in organic ISR at the small unit level and an adaptive, decentralized approach. New videos from "Colonelcassad" show volunteer/civilian efforts in Moscow distributing body armor, radios, and medical kits, specifically for units going to Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, as well as general requests for essential protective and medical gear, and tactical equipment (rifles, bipods, drone countermeasures, etc.) for units in Donbas/Konstantinovka. "Филолог в засаде" is also running a collection for an electric cart for an artillery division in the Pokrovsk direction. This highlights persistent logistical shortfalls being compensated by volunteer efforts, and a continued demand for basic and advanced tactical gear, as well as specialized equipment. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims "97% of wounded in the SMO return to duty," an IO attempt to boost morale and minimize casualty impact on force generation. Mash на Донбассе (RF source) reports a severe shortage of AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline in LPR, leading to huge queues at gas stations. This indicates potential internal logistical and sustainment challenges for fuel supplies in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)
  • Information Operations (Internal/External): "Colonelcassad" continues to frame Putin's diplomatic engagements (SCO summit, 80th anniversary of victory over Japan) as significant international events, boosting RF prestige, and attempts to credit Trump for Xi-Modi meeting. Alex Parker Returns uses "Dragon and Elephant" analogy to promote unity with China/India. TASS reports on Russian bloggers transitioning to a new platform and Manturov's marketplace usage, aiming at projecting internal stability and economic activity. RF sources are actively promoting tactical successes (destroyed UAF tank, FPV ambush, liquidation of UAF personnel, destruction of logistics/EW, Dimitrov entry, Zarichne/Maliyivka advances, Kryvyi Rih gas strike, Illichivsk railway strike). "Операция Z" is disseminating video claiming a "new act of mobilization" in Kyiv with a violent physical altercation, likely a PSYOP aimed at discrediting UAF mobilization efforts. "Старше Эдды" posts an internal critique of military deception, indicating some self-awareness or internal struggle regarding information integrity. "Операция Z" reports on new Polish regulations affecting Ukrainian refugees, attempting to stir discontent. TASS reports on US internal political developments, aiming to highlight internal US instability. MoD Russia via TASS publicly claims strike on UAF port infrastructure and shooting down UAF drones. TASS reports Germany won't send troops, and Hungary won't lift EU veto, bolstering RF narrative of Western reluctance. "Операция Z" specifically highlights new German policy on cutting benefits for Ukrainian refugees in 2026. Alex Parker Returns publishes a photo with Zelenskyy's statement on continuing long-range strikes into Russia, framing it negatively ("military dictator," "new deep strikes"). TASS (citing Peskov) claims Europeans "hinder efforts to bring the situation in Ukraine to a peaceful course" and "put spokes in the wheels," promoting a narrative of Western obstructionism. Басурин о главном highlights over 3000 journalists covering the SCO summit, emphasizing international attention on RF's diplomatic efforts. WarGonzo uses a photo of an industrial complex to comment on "oilmen pretending to be poor," a possible internal IO message. TASS (citing MoD RF) claims destruction of UAF "Akatsiya" and UAV C2, promoting battlefield successes. Alex Parker Returns posts a cryptic image related to "mathematics of 78 IQ," likely a derogatory political commentary. WarGonzo uses the "Finnish Air Force changing flags" as a narrative point, likely referring to NATO expansion. Рыбарь posts on "Threats in the Arctic," promoting a narrative of external threats to RF. Alex Parker Returns uses derogatory language ("Пыпа") to describe Putin's arrival in China, an internal IO attempt to mock Western narratives about Putin. Басурин о главном questions the death of Parubiy, potentially generating conspiracy theories. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" commemorates Alexander Zakharchenko's death, reinforcing separatist narratives. "Военкор Котенок" claims capacity restoration at Kursk NPP, likely pre-emptive IO against future attacks. Fighterbomber (RF source) criticizes France's perceived involvement in the conflict. TASS reports Merz (German politician) stating no one is currently discussing sending ground troops to Ukraine. Kotsnews (RF source) uses a two-image graphic to portray "Who changes the world," likely a pro-RF IO message. Alex Parker Returns claims capture of a major coal mine in Donetsk, furthering RF narrative of ground gains. Mash на Донбассе (RF source) publishes a video of a solemn ceremony commemorating Aleksandr Zakharchenko in Donetsk, reinforcing separatist ideology and hero-worship. "Операция Z" (RF source) promotes the start of CSTO exercises in Belarus under the theme "Strength in Unity," emphasizing Russian/Belarusian military cooperation and readiness. Alex Parker Returns continues to use critical IO regarding the SCO summit, focusing on "betrayal." "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" publishes video, captioning it with Zelenskyy's announcement of new strikes deep into Russian territory, and showing what appears to be a missile launch from a coastal area and a distant impact. This is an RF IO attempt to frame UAF missile launches as a response to Zelenskyy's statements and potentially amplify the threat to RF territory. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims RF forces hit an Azerbaijani vessel carrying military cargo and explosives for Ukraine in the Fishing Port of Illichivsk, framing it as a successful military strike on a legitimate target. ASTRA reports that participants of an action commemorating repressed Poles were banned from entering Russia for five years, an RF IO move likely aimed at deterring pro-Ukrainian sentiment among Poles. РБК-Україна reports Peskov’s latest statement, where he criticized European actions and a lack of "reciprocity" from Kyiv regarding peace talks, an RF IO effort to shift blame. "Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат»" publishes a patriotic montage video, "МОЯ СТРАНА," reinforcing national pride and military strength for internal consumption. 76% of Russians are reported to favor a peace agreement with Ukraine by RF state media, an IO effort to portray a desire for peace while justifying current actions. WarGonzo (RF source) publishes a video of a "Flamingo" missile launch, framing it as an "anti-crisis flight shown in Ukraine," which is a sarcastic IO attempt to downplay the significance of UAF long-range strikes. Mash на Донбассе (RF source) publishes a video of a man "waving an axe" in Mariupol, attempting to portray social disorder in occupied territories. "Операция Z" (RF source, citing "Военкоры Русской Весны") publishes a photo and claims that "man-hunters" (referring to Ukrainian recruiters) delivered a summons directly during a funeral service in Rivne Oblast. This is a PSYOP aiming to discredit UAF mobilization efforts and portray them negatively to domestic and international audiences. "Старше Эдды" posts a cryptic message "Царь Леонид - 'Освободитель'", which is likely a morale-boosting historical analogy for RF forces or leadership. Север.Реалии posts a commentary on Russian literature, reflecting a bleak perspective on the country's trajectory. Воин DV (RF source) notes continued discussions in Germany regarding further militarization, likely attempting to portray Germany as an aggressive actor. Операция Z (RF source) highlights the EU "breaking its head" over frozen Russian assets, framing it as a sign of EU difficulty and internal struggle. Басурин о главном posts a critical message "ПЛЮЮЩИЙ В МОГИЛУ" ("Spitting in the grave"), possibly targeting perceived traitors or critics. NEW: Colonelcassad reports 39 Poles banned from RF for unauthorized action in Tver, reinforcing RF internal security and international relations narratives. "Два майора" (RF source) posts "Corsairs" caption, likely symbolic naval power IO. TASS reports Karasin made an ironic comment on Lithuania's re-swamping border, showcasing RF diplomatic rhetoric. Kotsnews (RF source) claims Russian offensive in Donbas liberated over 80 settlements in summer, boosting battlefield success narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - New RF IO regarding Polish entry ban, symbolic naval power, ironic commentary on Lithuania, and claims of significant Donbas advances.)
  • Diplomatic Engagement: Colonelcassad confirms Putin's participation in the SCO summit (Tianjin, 31 AUG-1 SEP) and subsequent bilateral talks with Xi Jinping in Beijing, including commemorative events for the 80th anniversary of victory over Japan. Colonelcassad also reports on Xi-Modi negotiations in China, and confirms Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's arrival for the SCO summit. TASS reports Germany rules out sending troops to Ukraine. РБК-Україна reports Hungary maintains EU veto. РБК-Україна reports Modi met Xi Jinping in China and discussed "friendship of elephant and dragon." TASS, Colonelcassad, Операция Z, and Alex Parker Returns explicitly confirm Putin's arrival at the SCO summit, with video footage of his handshake with Xi Jinping, emphasizing a key diplomatic event for RF. TASS, Colonelcassad, and ASTRA provide new video footage of Putin's SCO arrival and handshake with Xi Jinping, reinforcing this key diplomatic engagement. TASS video shows Putin being met with "Kalinka-Malinka" at the SCO summit, highlighting the diplomatic occasion. Colonelcassad confirms Putin and Xi Jinping meeting in the SCO sidelines. TASS images confirm Putin's presence at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Tianjin, designated as his official residence during the SCO summit. TASS also provides video footage of the security and logistical arrangements around the summit palace. TASS reports Putin met with Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan, discussing bilateral and regional issues, indicating further diplomatic activity at the SCO summit. TASS reports the Russian delegation has returned to its residence in Tianjin after the day's working program at the SCO summit. TASS also publishes video of Putin meeting with Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Security Council of Russia, at the SCO summit. "Операция Z" (citing "Военкоры Русской Весны") reports Putin and Xi discussed contacts between Moscow and Washington on the sidelines of the SCO summit. TASS reports Peskov hopes Putin and Aliyev (Azerbaijan) will have an opportunity to meet tomorrow at the SCO summit. TASS reports Putin agreed to additional bilateral meetings with heads of various states and governments during the reception. Colonelcassad provides video of Putin's meeting with Pashinyan at the SCO summit. TASS (via Peskov's full commentary) confirms a "good and lengthy discussion" with the Armenian Prime Minister. РБК-Україна reports that China and India have agreed to resume direct flights, indicating a strengthening of bilateral relations between two major SCO members. NEW: "Два майора" (RF source) states that CSTO exercises will practice planning the use of nuclear weapons, a significant declaration potentially aimed at international deterrence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - New CSTO nuclear planning statement.)
  • Internal Security (Moscow Oblast): The large fire with explosions at or near the Balashikha Experimental Chemical Plant and a warehouse in Balashikha, Moscow Oblast. TASS reports the open burning is localized. Оперативний ЗСУ publishes new video and claims the fire was localized at 4000 sq meters, with neighboring enterprises also "fried." РБК-Україна reports that "Putin's palace" almost burned down during his trip to China, framing the Balashikha fire as a significant event and potentially an embarrassment for RF leadership. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)
  • Internal Security (Nizhny Novgorod Oblast): ASTRA and TASS report 5 people died from surrogate alcohol poisoning in Balakhna, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)
  • Internal Security (Tuva Republic): ASTRA reports women in Tuva were paid almost half as much as men for marathon prizes, highlighting potential internal social/economic disparity. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)
  • Internal Security (Kursk Oblast): "Военкор Котенок" (RF source) claims the third power unit of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant has had its capacity restored, specifically the transformer and turbogenerator. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - No change.)
  • Internal Security (Border Regions): Colonelcassad reports on Lithuania considering restoring dried swamps on the border with Belarus for security reasons, indicating RF (and Belarusian) border activity is a concern for neighboring states. "Операция Z" (RF source) reports CSTO exercises have begun in Belarus, involving military displays. This suggests increased military activity and coordination in RF's western border region. ASTRA reports participants of an action commemorating repressed Poles were banned from entering Russia for five years, indicating RF internal security measures also extend to perceived foreign threats or influences. NEW: TASS reports Karasin (RF official) made an ironic comment on Lithuania's re-swamping border initiative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - New RF diplomatic rhetoric on Lithuanian border initiatives.)
  • Nuclear Facilities (Zaporizhzhia NPP): РБК-Україна and STERNENKO report that IAEA experts were denied access by RF forces to a newly constructed dam near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)

• UAF:

  • Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) & ISR: UAF Air Force is demonstrating effective real-time threat detection and warning for enemy aerial threats (missile danger in Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk Oblasts; UAVs towards Odesa), though some alerts have now been lifted. "ASTRA" (citing UAF Air Force) previously reported "Russia attacked Ukraine with 142 UAVs overnight." UAF Air Force's previous claim of 126 neutralizations out of 142 "air attack means" indicates highly effective IAMD. However, the strike on Nizhyn critical infrastructure and extensive damage in Zaporizhzhia, and now claims of gas infrastructure hit near Kryvyi Rih, and the confirmed drone attack on Dnipro, demonstrate continued penetration. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the 58th Brigade destroyed a 2S1 self-propelled howitzer during transport (with video). This demonstrates successful UAF ISR and targeting. UAF has also analyzed a downed "Gerbera" UAV, finding video footage from a Chinese factory. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 (UAF source) publishes new video evidence of the 58th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade destroying a Russian SAU 2S1 (Gvozdika) self-propelled howitzer while being towed, confirming the previous report and showcasing precision drone strike capabilities. UAF Air Force issues a new warning. "Николаевский Ванёк" (UAF source) provides real-time warnings about incoming Shahed drones towards Dnipro. STERNENKO (UAF source) confirms Dnipro is under Shahed attack. "Николаевский Ванёк" (UAF source) reports "minus" for the "mopeds" (Shahed drones) over Dnipro, implying successful neutralization. РБК-Україна reports, citing GUR, successful drone strikes against multiple Russian military radar installations in Crimea. This indicates continued deep strike capabilities for UAF. UAF Air Force reports new strike UAV activity (Shahed variants) in Chernihiv Oblast, course towards Kyiv Oblast. UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" publishes FPV drone footage of a successful strike on a Russian military convoy. STERNENKO (UAF source) publishes video claiming the destruction of another RF Supercam reconnaissance UAV, highlighting continued UAF counter-ISR capabilities. NEW: РБК-Україна reports enemy UAV movement in Kyiv Oblast, with UAF Air Defense actively working. "Оперативний ЗСУ" (UAF source) publishes FPV drone footage claiming the destruction of RF equipment, including a BTR/armored vehicle and a Nona self-propelled gun, and engaging motorized infantry on motorcycles in Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - New UAF AD in Kyiv Oblast, new UAF FPV drone strike BDA in Kharkiv Oblast.)
  • Civilian Defense: Ukrainian authorities are providing prompt public alerts. Reports from Chernihiv Oblast (Nizhyn) confirm widespread power and water outages following a drone attack on critical infrastructure. The Zaporizhzhia OVA issues an "ATTENTION" alert, and now provides detailed reporting on civilian casualties (children, elderly), hospitalized, and extensive building damage. STERNENKO reports a woman killed by an RF drone in Kherson. Sumy has made a decision on kindergartens working from September 1st, indicating adaptations for civilian life under threat. STERNENKO (UAF source) reports many people are leaving the country after the government's "18-22" decree, citing concerns about mobilization, potentially indicating a strain on civilian resilience and impacting public sentiment. РБК-Україна reports water supply in Chornomorsk will be on a schedule due to drone attacks. 🇺🇦 Zaporizhzhia OVA publishes a video on students and teachers preparing for "underground" schools in rural communities, highlighting adaptive civilian defense measures in education. 🇺🇦 Zaporizhzhia OVA issues an "All clear" for the air raid alert. ASTRA publishes an emotional video about a dog waiting for its owner who died in a RF attack on Kyiv, highlighting the civilian cost of conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)
  • Information Operations: UAF General Staff (Genshtab) continues to disseminate reports stating that "RF's offensive has ended with practically nothing, the occupiers have not gained control over any large city." Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi directly confirms that RF concentrates efforts and suffers greatest losses in the Pokrovsk direction, and that UAF units are methodically destroying the occupier. He also highlights RF losses of over 290,000 killed/seriously wounded in the last eight months, without achieving strategic objectives. He thanks units for contributing to the "exchange fund." STERNENKO and Operatyvnyi ZSU are actively reporting on the Nizhyn strike. UAF sources like Олександр Вілкул and Сергій Лисак (Dnipropetrovsk OVA) are engaging in remembrance ceremonies, reinforcing national morale and memorializing fallen heroes/victims. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights the 58th Brigade's successful destruction of a 2S1 howitzer. UAF Navy Spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk is cited by ASTRA confirming the civilian vessel mine incident, demonstrating UAF transparency. UAF sources like Zelenskiy / Official, Oleg Synegubov / Kharkiv OVA, and KMVA are amplifying Syrskyi's report. "Николаевский Ванёк" publishes video of a successful launch of Ukrainian-produced "Flamingo" missiles. Operatyvnyi ЗСУ reports Zelenskyy stated that long-range strikes into Russia will continue. DeepState is reporting on RF advances in Zarichne and Maliyivka. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and Оперативний ЗСУ explicitly state "Flamingo" missiles are actively being used against targets in RF, with video footage of launches. STERNENKO publishes video of UAF "VIDARR" FPV drone striking 5 RF personnel on the Lyman direction. РБК-Україна reports "Defense Forces gave an answer" on whether UAF managed to "cut off" the Dobropillya salient, indicating an ongoing information campaign regarding the outcome of recent engagements. STERNENKO reports on the negative impact of the "18-22" decree on civilian movement, potentially impacting morale. РБК-Україна reports on the death and funeral of Andriy Parubiy, highlighting national mourning. UAF General Staff publishes photos of RHB reconnaissance in the Chernobyl zone, projecting continued defensive and environmental monitoring capabilities. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" publishes GoPro footage of UAF SOF (KRAKEN) counter-offensive actions in Sumy direction, showcasing tactical successes and morale. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" (UAF source) publishes a video of what appears to be a "Flamingo" missile launch and counters RF claims regarding UAVs. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" also amplifies OSUV "Dnipro" report of RF forces encircled near Dobropillya, directly challenging RF narratives and highlighting UAF successes. Оперативний ЗСУ publishes new video and details on the Balashikha fire, challenging RF's narrative of containing the damage. РБК-Україна amplifies a fundraising campaign for vehicles for the 153rd Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBR). Оперативний ЗСУ cites the World Bank, stating Ukraine needs over $520 billion for post-war reconstruction, amplifying calls for international financial support. DeepState reports Hungary will continue to obstruct Ukraine's EU membership talks, highlighting a challenge in international relations. STERNENKO publishes video of UAF "Signum" unit of the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade destroying enemy forces on the Lyman direction, promoting tactical successes. РБК-Україна reports on Peskov’s latest statement, labeling it "nonsense" regarding the war in Ukraine, actively countering RF IO. РБК-Україна reports that "Putin's palace" almost burned down during his trip to China, framing the Balashikha fire as an embarrassment for RF leadership. STERNENKO posts "Death to Russians!", a strong morale message. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publishes a photo with text emphasizing the importance of conveying a simple message to the Western world: "Putin will be stopped only there, where we will stop him." This is a clear call for increased international support and a defiant message. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also amplifies a Guardian report that the USA called on Russia to pursue peace or face sanctions. РБК-Україна publishes a video, citing GUR, of successful drone strikes against multiple Russian military radar installations in Crimea, demonstrating and publicizing deep strike capabilities against high-value targets. РБК-Україна quotes Polish PM Tusk stating that "no concessions to Putin will bring security to Europe." UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" reports "double-kill" of RF brothers in Marfopil, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, highlighting RF losses. UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" publishes FPV drone footage of a successful strike on a Russian military convoy, emphasizing UAF tactical effectiveness against logistics. ASTRA publishes emotional video of a dog after an RF attack on Kyiv, reinforcing the human cost. STERNENKO (UAF source) explicitly posts about the destruction of another RF Supercam UAV, providing BDA and morale-boosting information. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF source) amplifies the Bild report about Germany's decision not to send troops to Ukraine post-war, framing it as a shift towards continued financial and military support, which can be used to re-affirm long-term Western commitment. NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (UAF source) posts about the World Bank's $520 billion estimate for Ukraine's reconstruction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - New UAF IO on reconstruction estimate.)
  • Naval Security: The report of a civilian vessel hitting a mine near Odesa's coast (confirmed by UAF Navy) indicates a persistent threat to maritime activity in the Black Sea. UAF demonstrates coastal defense missile capability with "Flamingo" launches. "Два майора" (RF source) confirms the specific vessel, NS PRIDE, being affected by a mine off Odesa/Chornomorsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)
  • Civilian Environmental Concerns: РБК-Україна reports on "harvest at any cost" and destruction of soils/environment, highlighting potential long-term environmental consequences of the conflict. РБК-Україна and STERNENKO report that IAEA experts were denied access by RF forces to a newly constructed dam near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. This raises international concerns about RF's control over nuclear infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)
  • RHB Protection: UAF General Staff publishes photos of RHB reconnaissance units from the 704th Separate RHB Protection Brigade (Support Forces) operating in the Chernobyl exclusion zone, indicating proactive measures to monitor and protect against radiological, chemical, and biological threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)

1.4. Intelligence Gaps from Previous Report Addressed/Updated:

• RF Ballistic Missile Types (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk): Missile danger was reported, but specific missile type is still not identified. (REMAINS A GAP for specific type.)
• BDA on RF Deep Strikes on Ukrainian DIB targets/Critical Infrastructure: UPDATED - Odesa energy infrastructure (DTEK, 4 objects) confirmed damaged by drone strikes, Chornomorsk port terminal and energy infrastructure confirmed hit by drones, railway ferry complex in Illichivsk (Chornomorsk) claimed hit by "Geran-2," an explosion in Dnipro confirmed (though UAF claims neutralization), critical infrastructure enterprise hit by Shahed in Nizhyn, Chernihiv Oblast, causing power/water outages, AND detailed reporting from Zaporizhzhia OVA provides significant BDA on civilian impact and building damage. RF claims Kryvyi Rih gas infrastructure hit. "Военкор Котенок" (RF source) claims the third power unit of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant has had its capacity restored, specifically the transformer and turbogenerator, likely pre-emptive IO. RF sources ("Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition") claim kinetic strike on a "launch vehicle" ("PU была"). "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims RF forces hit an Azerbaijani vessel carrying military cargo and explosives for Ukraine in the Fishing Port of Illichivsk. UAF GUR claims successful drone strikes against multiple Russian military radar installations in Crimea. Colonelcassad's animated map provides a broad overview of strikes (30-31 AUG). NEW: UAF Dnipropetrovsk OVA reports multi-weapon attacks on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, providing photo evidence of destruction. BDA across all DIB targets (including Yuzhmash, Motor Sich from previous report) remains a critical gap. (CRITICAL GAP PERSISTS AND IS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NEW CLAIMS (Kryvyi Rih gas, Kursk NPP, launch vehicle, Illichivsk military cargo); PARTIALLY ADDRESSED for civilian impact in Zaporizhzhia and confirmed Dnipro strike, and for UAF strikes in Crimea, and animated map for general strike pattern, and new photo evidence of destruction in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.)
• Accurate Ground Truth Kamyshevakha / Dobropillya / Redkodub / Dimitrov / Zarichne / Maliyivka / Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) / Lyman Direction / Siversk / Konstantinovka / Krasnoarmiysk / Pokrovsk Roads (Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts) and RF Force Dispositions/Intentions: UPDATED - RF sources ("Операция Z") claim RF forces advanced and consolidated positions under Maliyivka and in Zarichne. DeepState (UAF source) corroborates RF advances in Zarichne. This partially addresses the ground truth for Zarichne and Maliyivka. UAF claims of encirclement at Dobropillya remain unconfirmed by other sources, but РБК-Україна indicates UAF is responding to questions about whether the salient was "cut off." STERNENKO (UAF source) publishes FPV drone strike on 5 RF personnel in Lyman direction. TASS (citing MoD RF) claims destruction of UAF "Akatsiya" and UAV C2 near Siversk. "Сливочный каприз" (RF source) posts geo-located photos of Konstantinovka - Rusin Yar, and Krasnoarmiysk - Artemivka (Sofiyivka), indicating continued RF activity or observation. "Операция Z" (RF source) claims FPV drones of the "O" (Otvazhnye) Group have taken control of roads leading to Pokrovsk. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (UAF source) publishes GoPro footage of UAF SOF counter-offensive actions in Sumy direction, showing soldiers clearing rooms and discovering a hidden cache. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) claims capture of the 'Pisciy' coal mine in Peski, Donetsk Oblast. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" (UAF source) amplifies OSUV "Dnipro" report of RF forces encircled near Dobropillya. "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" publishes new drone footage of military vehicles and a damaged vehicle in a rural area, indicating ongoing reconnaissance or active operations. STERNENKO (UAF source) publishes video of UAF "Signum" unit of the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade destroying enemy forces on the Lyman direction. "Воин DV" (RF source) claims drone operators from the 5th Tank Guards Brigade, 36th Army, "Vostok" Group, are "severely thinning out" enemy combat formations in the Novoselivka area (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). UAF "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" publishes FPV drone footage of a successful strike on a Russian military convoy moving along a dirt road, which demonstrates continued engagements in rural areas. UAF "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" reports the "double-kill" of two RF brothers in Marfopil, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, providing specific RF loss information from that area. NEW: Kotsnews (RF source) claims Russian offensive in Donbas liberated over 80 settlements over summer. "Два майора" (RF source) publishes video footage of artillery strikes on entrenched positions and structures on the Zaporizhzhia front. "Оперативний ЗСУ" (UAF source) publishes FPV drone footage claiming the destruction of RF equipment in Kharkiv Oblast. (PARTIALLY ADDRESSED for Zarichne and Maliyivka with corroboration, but wider ground truth in these dynamic areas remains critical; new FPV strike provides specific tactical information for Lyman direction, new RF claims of kinetic strikes near Siversk, new geo-located photos indicating RF activity near Konstantinovka/Krasnoarmiysk, new RF claims of FPV control over Pokrovsk roads, new RF claims of coal mine capture, new confirmed UAF counter-offensive in Sumy Oblast, and new conflicting claims on Kamyshevakha/Dobropillya. New video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" indicates continued UAF SOF activity. New UAF video confirms continued engagements on Lyman direction. New RF claims of engagements near Novoselivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New UAF FPV strike on RF convoy logistics provides specific evidence of ongoing engagements. New report of RF losses in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. New RF claims of significant advances in Donbas. New video of artillery strikes on Zaporizhzhia front. New UAF FPV strike BDA in Kharkiv Oblast.)
• RF Paratrooper Activity in Zaporizhzhia: No new specific intelligence in this update. (REMAINS A GAP.)
• UAF Reinforcement in Krasnoarmiysk: TASS (citing DNR advisor) claims "Azov" personnel redeployed to the Krasnoarmiysk sector, suggesting UAF activity, but no new specific UAF information on reinforcement status. Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi highlights RF focus and losses in Pokrovsk direction. (PARTIALLY ADDRESSED by RF claims of UAF redeployment and Syrskyi's high-level assessment of the sector.)
• Volgograd Airport Closure: No new information on "massed UAV attack" or airport status. (REMAINS A GAP.)
• RF Strike on UAF Reinforcement Areas in Sumy Oblast: UPDATED: "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (UAF source) publishes GoPro footage of UAF SOF counter-offensive actions in Sumy direction and new drone reconnaissance video. While this is UAF activity in Sumy, it does not confirm or deny RF strikes on UAF reinforcement areas. (REMAINS A GAP for RF strikes on UAF reinforcement areas.)
• Simferopol Airport Damage: UPDATED - Previous OSINT report on destroyed helicopters still requires IMINT verification. РБК-Україна publishes a photo with a caption reporting an OSINT analyst's claim that drones attacked Simferopol, destroying two RF helicopters. While still citing an OSINT analyst, this is a renewed report and increases confidence slightly, but IMINT verification remains critical. (CRITICAL GAP PERSISTS - URGENT. New OSINT report renews urgency for IMINT verification.)
• Context of UAF Air Force Claim of 126 UAVs Shot Down/Suppressed: "ASTRA" explicitly stated "Russia attacked Ukraine with 142 UAVs overnight." This clarifies the origin and total number of detected enemy UAVs. The reported 126 neutralizations (from previous report) out of 142 refers to RF drones over Ukraine. (PARTIALLY ADDRESSED - Context on origin and total count clarified; timeframe (overnight vs. 24-hour) remains to be explicitly confirmed from UAF Air Force official statement.)
• Balashikha Fire Cause/Target: UPDATED - RF MCHS reports open burning localized. Оперативний ЗСУ publishes new video and claims the fire was localized at 4000 sq meters, with neighboring enterprises also "fried." РБК-Україна reports that "Putin's palace" almost burned down during his trip to China, framing the Balashikha fire as a significant event affecting RF leadership. The cause (accident vs. attack) and specific facility (warehouse vs. chemical plant) involved in the large Balashikha fire with explosions are critical gaps. (CRITICAL GAP PERSISTS, with new localization and broader impact details, and new UAF IO framing.)
• Ukrainian Attack in Kursk Oblast: Urgent ISR required to verify the RF claim of a Ukrainian attack in Belovsky District, Kursk Oblast, that wounded 6 people. (NEW CRITICAL GAP - PERSISTING.)
• Civilian Exodus from Ukraine: Urgent HUMINT and OSINT required to verify the scale and impact of civilian exodus from Ukraine following the "18-22" decree, as reported by STERNENKO. This is crucial for assessing internal morale and labor force impacts. (NEW CRITICAL GAP.)
• Impact of death of Andriy Parubiy: Urgent HUMINT and OSINT required to understand the circumstances surrounding the death of Andriy Parubiy and its impact on Ukrainian politics and society, given RF IO attempting to generate conspiracy theories. (NEW MEDIUM GAP.)
• IAEA Access to ZNPP Dam: Urgent HUMINT and OSINT are required to understand the reasons for RF's denial of IAEA access to the newly constructed dam near the ZNPP and to assess any potential military or radiological implications. (NEW CRITICAL GAP.)
• CSTO Exercises in Belarus: Urgent ISR (IMINT, SIGINT) and OSINT are required to monitor the scope, duration, and participating forces of the CSTO exercises in Belarus, and to assess any potential threat to Ukraine's northern border. NEW: "Два майора" (RF source) states that CSTO exercises will practice planning the use of nuclear weapons, which is a significant update regarding their scope. (NEW MEDIUM GAP - UPDATED SCOPE.)
• LPR Fuel Shortages: Urgent IMINT (satellite imagery of gas stations), OSINT (local reporting, social media), and HUMINT (cross-border contacts) are required to verify the extent, cause, and impact of the reported AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline shortages in the LPR. This is crucial for assessing RF logistical capabilities in occupied territories and potential impacts on civilian and military movement. (NEW CRITICAL GAP - PERSISTING.)
• RF "Magarik" Reconnaissance Team Tactic Effectiveness: Urgent HUMINT (captured RF personnel, defectors) and technical intelligence are required to assess the effectiveness and widespread deployment of RF reconnaissance teams using "trap nets" to neutralize drones, as highlighted by MoD Russia. This is crucial for UAF counter-drone tactics. (NEW MEDIUM GAP - PERSISTING.)
• Social Disorder in Mariupol: Urgent HUMINT and OSINT (local reporting, social media) are required to verify the nature and extent of social disorder in Mariupol, as implied by Mash na Donbasse's video of a man with an axe. This is crucial for assessing the effectiveness of RF's control over occupied territories. (NEW MEDIUM GAP - PERSISTING.)
• RF PSYOP on UAF Mobilization: Urgent HUMINT and OSINT are required to monitor and counter RF PSYOP campaigns aimed at discrediting UAF mobilization efforts, particularly claims of summons being delivered during funerals. This is crucial for maintaining public trust and morale. (NEW MEDIUM GAP - PERSISTING.)
• RF Military Convoy Strike BDA: Urgent IMINT (drone footage analysis, satellite imagery) and HUMINT (frontline reporting) are required to verify the BDA of the UAF "Ivan Franko Group" FPV drone strike on an RF military convoy, including vehicle types, personnel losses, and operational impact. This is crucial for assessing UAF tactical effectiveness against RF logistics and troop movements in rural areas. (NEW CRITICAL GAP.)
• BDA of RF Supercam UAV Destruction: Urgent IMINT (drone footage analysis), SIGINT, and HUMINT are required to confirm the destruction of the RF Supercam reconnaissance UAV, assess the operational impact on RF ISR capabilities, and determine if new counter-ISR tactics were employed. (NEW HIGH GAP.)
• NEW: RF UAV Destruction in Bryansk Oblast: Urgent IMINT and SIGINT are required to verify RF claims of a destroyed fixed-wing UAV over Bryansk Oblast, including the type of UAV and any BDA. (NEW HIGH GAP.)
• NEW: RF Claims of Donbas Liberation: Urgent IMINT (historical satellite imagery, current frontline analysis) and HUMINT are required to verify the RF claim that over 80 settlements have been liberated in Donbas over the summer months. This is crucial for assessing the true pace and scale of RF ground advances. (NEW HIGH GAP.)
• NEW: UAF FPV Drone Strike BDA in Kharkiv Oblast: Urgent IMINT (drone footage analysis, satellite imagery) and HUMINT (frontline reporting) are required to verify the BDA of the "Оперативний ЗСУ" FPV drone strike in Kharkiv Oblast, including identification of destroyed RF equipment (BTR, Nona self-propelled gun), personnel losses, and operational impact. (NEW HIGH GAP.)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:

  • Persistent Multi-Oblast Reconnaissance & Multi-Domain Strike (Expanded Geographical Reach & Integration): RF demonstrates the capability for sustained massed drone attacks on critical infrastructure now spanning at least four oblasts (Odesa energy/port, Chornomorsk energy/port/railway ferry, now impacting water supply, Nizhyn critical infrastructure (energy/water), and claimed gas infrastructure near Kryvyi Rih, confirmed against Dnipro, though UAF claims neutralization), and deep strikes (Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia). RF continues to pose ballistic missile threats across a wider range of eastern and central Oblasts. The explicit attribution by ASTRA (citing UAF Air Force) of "142 UAVs" underscores the scale of this capability. RF ground units continue to leverage COTS drones for tactical ISR and control, with new claims (and new video evidence) of successful strikes (Ivanivka, Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmiysk, Novoselivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), and a claim of a civilian killed by a drone in Kherson. RF also demonstrates counter-UAV capabilities with claims of shooting down UAF reconnaissance drones, and new video showcasing a reconnaissance engineer team using trap nets to neutralize drones. RF claims a Ukrainian attack in Kursk Oblast, suggesting RF internal defense/security capabilities are active. TASS (citing MoD RF) claims RF Southern Group of Forces hit an "Akatsiya" self-propelled artillery system with a "Lancet" drone and destroyed a UAV control point with "Msta-B" howitzers near Siversk, demonstrating integrated air and ground kinetic strike capabilities against UAF military assets. "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" (RF source) publishes drone footage of explosions, claiming "Target hit" and "PU была" (launch vehicle was), indicating a continued kinetic strike capability against UAF assets. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" (RF source) claims RF forces hit an Azerbaijani vessel carrying military cargo and explosives for Ukraine in the Fishing Port of Illichivsk, indicating capability to target civilian vessels perceived as carrying military supplies. Colonelcassad's animated map confirms widespread RF kinetic strike capabilities (UMPK, RSZO/OTRK, drones) across Ukraine (30-31 AUG). New reports of Shahed drones heading towards Kyiv Oblast confirm deep strike capability to the capital. NEW: UAF Dnipropetrovsk OVA reports multi-weapon attacks on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. AV БогомаZ reports RF AD destroyed a UAV over Bryansk Oblast. "Два майора" (RF source) publishes video footage of artillery strikes on entrenched positions and structures on the Zaporizhzhia front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - New RF multi-weapon attacks on Dnipropetrovsk, RF claims UAV destruction in Bryansk, new RF artillery strike capabilities demonstrated on Zaporizhzhia front.)
  • Logistical Sustainment (Volunteer Dependence): RF demonstrates a capability to partially offset logistical shortfalls for frontline units through organized volunteer/civilian collection and distribution networks, sourcing protective gear, radios, and medical supplies, and now specific specialized equipment like drones and electric carts. A new video from "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" showing a Ukrainian soldier requesting Mavic 3 drones further highlights the persistent need for these COTS assets. Reported fuel shortages in LPR indicate an internal logistical constraint for RF and its proxies, potentially impacting ground mobility and operations in occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)
  • Ground Offensive Operations (Localized Advances): RF demonstrates capability for localized ground advances, as confirmed by both RF and UAF sources in Zarichne, and claimed by RF near Maliyivka. "Операция Z" (RF source) claims FPV drones of the "O" (Otvazhnye) Group have taken control of roads leading to Pokrovsk. Alex Parker Returns (RF source) publishes a video claiming the capture of the 'Pisciy' coal mine in Peski, Donetsk Oblast, indicating continued, albeit localized, ground offensive capabilities. "Воин DV" (RF source) claims drone operators from the 5th Tank Guards Brigade, 36th Army, "Vostok" Group, are "severely thinning out" enemy combat formations in the Novoselivka area (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), indicating localized ground engagements. NEW: Kotsnews (RF source) claims the Russian offensive in Donbas has liberated over 80 settlements over summer. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - New RF claim of significant Donbas advances over summer.)
  • Hybrid Warfare (Information/Diplomatic): RF continues to use historical narratives (Putin's diplomatic engagements, Zakharchenko commemoration), claims of military success, and attempts to discredit UAF actions (mobilization, NATO/EU aspirations, Polish-Ukrainian relations, German refugee policy). RF sources continue to provide their perspective of battlefield movements and tactical successes (Donetsk direction, Krasnoarmiysk, Zarichne, Maliyivka, Siversk, Novoselivka). "Старше Эдды" posts an internal critique of military deception, which may signal a shift in approach or an attempt to appear more credible. RF state media (TASS) effectively amplifies news of Germany's decision not to send troops and Hungary's decision on EU accession, reinforcing narratives of Western disunity and reluctance to fully support Ukraine, and now specifically targeting German refugee policy. Alex Parker Returns directly counters Zelenskyy's statement on long-range strikes into Russia and to blame Europe for the continued conflict. RF intends to emphasize the significance of the SCO summit and to continue promoting military successes and narratives of external threats while managing internal discontent (e.g., oil industry, social disparities). RF may also use the death of Andriy Parubiy for disinformation. RF intends to use claims of Kursk NPP capacity restoration as pre-emptive IO against future attacks, and to criticize perceived Western involvement in the conflict. RF intends to reinforce the narrative of Western reluctance to send troops to Ukraine, portray itself as a global actor changing the world, and highlight ground gains in Donetsk (coal mine capture). RF intends to project collective military power and readiness through CSTO exercises in Belarus. RF intends to frame UAF long-range strikes as a direct response to Zelenskyy's statements and to shift blame for lack of peace talks to Europe and Kyiv. RF intends to deter foreign nationals from engaging in activities perceived as hostile or critical of Russia, as evidenced by the travel ban for Poles. RF demonstrates capability for PSYOP targeting UAF mobilization efforts by depicting summons delivery at a funeral. RF also uses sarcastic IO to frame UAF missile launches as "anti-crisis." "Старше Эдды" employs historical analogy to boost morale, confirming continued internal IO. RF demonstrates capability to highlight perceived internal EU divisions and challenges (frozen assets) and to portray Germany as increasingly militaristic. NEW: Colonelcassad reports 39 Poles banned from RF, strengthening RF internal security and international relations narratives. "Два майора" (RF source) posts "Corsairs" caption, likely symbolic naval power IO. TASS reports Karasin made an ironic comment on Lithuania's re-swamping border initiative, showcasing RF diplomatic rhetoric. Kotsnews (RF source) claims Russian offensive in Donbas liberated over 80 settlements in summer, boosting battlefield success narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - New RF IO regarding Polish entry ban, symbolic naval power, ironic commentary on Lithuania, and claims of significant Donbas advances.)
  • Mine Warfare: RF continues to possess the capability to lay and/or fail to clear mines in the Black Sea, posing a significant threat to maritime traffic. The specific identification of the vessel NS PRIDE being affected by a mine near Chornomorsk confirms the severe threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)
  • Control over Nuclear Facilities: RF demonstrates the capability to control access to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and its surrounding infrastructure, including newly constructed elements. The denial of IAEA access to a new dam highlights RF's intent to control information and access to critical nuclear infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)
  • Diplomatic Engagement: RF demonstrates the capability to host and engage in high-level multilateral and bilateral diplomatic meetings (SCO summit, Putin-Pashinyan meeting, Putin-Patrushev meeting), leveraging these for geopolitical influence and alliance building. TASS reports Peskov hopes Putin and Aliyev (Azerbaijan) will meet at SCO tomorrow. TASS reports Putin agreed on additional bilateral meetings, confirming continued diplomatic engagement. NEW: "Два майора" (RF source) states that CSTO exercises will practice planning the use of nuclear weapons, a significant declaration potentially aimed at international deterrence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - New CSTO nuclear planning statement.)

• Intentions:

  • Degrade UAF Defense/Offensive Capabilities and Critical Infrastructure (Intensified Focus & Geographical Expansion): RF intends to systematically degrade Ukraine's critical civilian energy, transport, water, and now gas infrastructure (Odesa, Chornomorsk, Illichivsk, Dnipro, Nizhyn, Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih) through sustained deep strikes to impact civilian resilience, disrupt logistics, and reduce support for military operations. RF also intends to continue tactical battlefield interdiction and to project international legitimacy through diplomatic engagements. RF intends to target civilian vessels perceived as carrying military cargo, as claimed in Illichivsk Fishing Port. RF intends to disrupt UAF radar, satellite navigation, and air defense capabilities, as evidenced by GUR's claimed strikes in Crimea. RF intends to continue deep strike operations against Ukrainian critical infrastructure, including Kyiv, as evidenced by new drone activity reports towards the capital. NEW: RF intends to continue multi-weapon attacks on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - New RF intentions for multi-weapon attacks on Dnipropetrovsk.)
  • Shape Public Opinion (Internal & External): RF intends to project an image of strength, internal stability, and international relevance (Putin's diplomatic activities, Zakharchenko commemoration), while counteracting UAF narratives and discrediting UAF mobilization efforts and now attempting to disrupt Polish-Ukrainian and German-Ukrainian relations by amplifying refugee issues. RF also intends to highlight perceived Western disunity or reluctance to support Ukraine fully. Alex Parker Returns directly counters Zelenskyy's statement on long-range strikes into Russia and to blame Europe for the continued conflict. RF intends to emphasize the significance of the SCO summit and to continue promoting military successes and narratives of external threats while managing internal discontent (e.g., oil industry, social disparities). RF may also use the death of Andriy Parubiy for disinformation. RF intends to use claims of Kursk NPP capacity restoration as pre-emptive IO against future attacks, and to criticize perceived Western involvement in the conflict. RF intends to reinforce the narrative of Western reluctance to send troops to Ukraine, portray itself as a global actor changing the world, and highlight ground gains in Donetsk (coal mine capture). RF intends to project collective military power and readiness through CSTO exercises in Belarus. RF intends to frame UAF long-range strikes as a direct response to Zelenskyy's statements and to shift blame for lack of peace talks to Europe and Kyiv. RF intends to deter foreign nationals from engaging in activities perceived as hostile or critical of Russia, as evidenced by the travel ban for Poles. RF intends to project a desire for peace among its population while justifying current actions. RF intends to undermine UAF mobilization efforts by portraying them as coercive ("man-hunters"). RF intends to sarcastically downplay UAF long-range strike capabilities. RF intends to boost internal morale through historical analogies. RF intends to portray the EU as fractured and ineffective (frozen assets) and Germany as increasingly militaristic. NEW: RF intends to reinforce internal security and international relations narratives by banning Poles from entering RF. RF intends to use symbolic naval power for IO. RF intends to use ironic diplomatic rhetoric against Lithuania. RF intends to boost battlefield success narratives by claiming significant advances in Donbas. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - New RF intentions regarding Polish entry ban, symbolic naval power, ironic commentary on Lithuania, and claims of significant Donbas advances.)
  • Sustain Force Generation via External Support: RF intends to supplement official military logistics through volunteer efforts to maintain equipment and morale for frontline units. RF intends to address and manage internal logistical challenges, such as fuel shortages in occupied territories, to ensure sustainment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)
  • Consolidate Control in Occupied Territories & Penetrate Front Lines: RF is intent on maintaining control over occupied territories, as evidenced by the alleged actions of individuals in Mariupol (from previous report). New claims of reconnaissance groups entering Dimitrov, FPV drone control over Pokrovsk roads, advances in Zarichne and Maliyivka, and now the claim of capturing a major coal mine in Donetsk, suggest an intent to probe and potentially advance on new axes or consolidate control over claimed "DNR" territories. The denial of IAEA access to the ZNPP dam indicates an intent to exert full control over critical infrastructure in occupied territories and to restrict international oversight. NEW: RF intends to continue ground offensives in Donbas, claiming significant territorial gains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - New RF intentions to claim significant territorial gains in Donbas.)
  • Disrupt UAF Reinforcements/Redeployments: The claim of "Azov" redeployment to Krasnoarmiysk by RF suggests an intention to monitor and disrupt UAF force movements. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - No change.)
  • Maintain Maritime Hazard: RF intends to maintain a maritime hazard in the Black Sea through mine warfare, likely to restrict Ukrainian shipping. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)
  • Provoke Civilian Casualties/Fear: The reported drone killing of a civilian woman in Kherson confirms an intent to inflict civilian casualties and terrorize the local population. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)
  • Defend RF Internal Territory: RF intends to defend its internal territory from Ukrainian attacks, as evidenced by the claim of a Ukrainian attack in Kursk Oblast. NEW: RF intends to defend its airspace over Bryansk Oblast against UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - New RF intentions to defend Bryansk airspace.)
  • Increase Regional Military Presence/Coordination: RF intends to increase its military presence and demonstrate coordination with allies in its western border regions, as evidenced by the CSTO exercises in Belarus. NEW: RF intends to use CSTO exercises for nuclear weapons planning, a significant escalation of intent. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - New CSTO nuclear planning intent.)
  • Strengthen Diplomatic Alliances: RF intends to strengthen its diplomatic alliances, particularly with SCO members, as evidenced by Putin's meetings with Xi Jinping, Armenian PM Pashinyan, and Nikolai Patrushev. RF intends to engage in further bilateral meetings at SCO, potentially with Azerbaijan. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - No change.)

• Courses of Action (COA) Currently Observed:

  1. Sustained Massed Drone and Missile Strikes on Critical Infrastructure (Energy & Transport & Water & Gas) & Deep Areas; Continued Mine Warfare; Continued Civilian Targeting; Limited Retaliatory Strikes on Border Regions; Continued IAEA Access Denial; Targeting of Civilian Vessels Carrying Perceived Military Cargo; Counter-Drone Tactics: RF is conducting and will continue massed drone attacks (e.g., "Geran-2"/Shaheds) explicitly targeting critical civilian energy, transport (e.g., ports, railways), water (Nizhyn, Chornomorsk), and now gas (Kryvyi Rih) infrastructure (Odesa, Chornomorsk, Illichivsk, Nizhyn, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro), and conducting deep strikes, including towards Kyiv Oblast. Missile threats will persist. RF will also continue mine laying or fail to clear previously laid mines in the Black Sea, posing a threat to maritime traffic. RF will continue to engage UAF reconnaissance drones. RF may conduct limited retaliatory strikes on Ukrainian territory or border regions in response to perceived Ukrainian attacks on RF territory (e.g., Kursk Oblast, Bryansk Oblast). RF will likely continue to target UAF "launch vehicles" as indicated by "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" claims. RF will continue to deny IAEA experts access to the newly constructed dam near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and potentially other critical infrastructure within the ZNPP perimeter, to maintain full control and limit international transparency. RF will likely continue to target civilian vessels that it claims are transporting military cargo for Ukraine, as indicated by the strike claim in Illichivsk Fishing Port. RF reconnaissance teams will continue to employ tactics such as trap nets to neutralize drones and clear routes for troop advancement. NEW: RF is observed conducting multi-weapon attacks on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Observed pattern of massed drone strikes on critical infrastructure, new civilian infrastructure targets (water/gas), confirmed Dnipro strike, continued reconnaissance/kinetic strikes, new tactical drone strike claims, persistent missile threat, new mine warfare evidence, new RF counter-UAV claims, continued targeting of civilians, new likelihood of limited retaliatory strikes, and new IAEA access denial. Supported by ISW assessment. New COA to target civilian vessels carrying perceived military cargo. New COA for tactical counter-drone tactics. New COA for drone strikes towards Kyiv. New COA for multi-weapon attacks on Dnipropetrovsk.)
  2. Continued Tactical Drone Use for ISR and Direct Kinetic Action by RF Ground Units (Integrated with Artillery), Augmented by Volunteer Logistics; Persistent Offensive on Donetsk and Pokrovsk Axes, with Localized Gains and Reconnaissance Probes; Sustained Military Activity in Belarus (CSTO Exercises including Nuclear Planning); Persistent UAF SOF Counter-Offensive in Sumy; Continued Diplomatic Engagements at SCO (including potential new bilateral meetings); Internal Logistical Management; Internal Morale-Boosting IO: RF ground units will continue to rely on and actively seek out commercial drones (e.g., DJI Mavic 3) for tactical reconnaissance, target identification, and direct kinetic engagement of UAF positions and logistics on the front lines. This decentralized drone use will remain a persistent, granular threat, with RF sources continuing to highlight claimed successes (e.g., Ivanivka, Siversk, Pokrovsk roads, capture of coal mine, Novoselivka engagements, over 80 settlements liberated in Donbas). Furthermore, RF will continue to leverage volunteer and civilian logistical networks to acquire and distribute essential protective gear, communication equipment, and medical supplies to compensate for official supply chain deficiencies, now including specialized drones and electric carts. RF will maintain offensive pressure in the Donetsk direction, likely attempting to consolidate gains (e.g., Zarichne, Maliyivka, Kamyshevakha/Peski) and disrupt UAF operations (e.g., Pokrovsk sector, Lyman direction, as indicated by UAF FPV strike). Reconnaissance groups are likely to continue probing actions into settlements like Dimitrov, and activity in Konstantinovka/Krasnoarmiysk areas will persist. RF will also likely attempt to break any UAF encirclement efforts, such as the one claimed near Dobropillya. CSTO exercises will continue in Belarus, involving military parades and displays of readiness, and will practice planning the use of nuclear weapons, projecting military strength and coordination in the northern axis. UAF SOF will continue their counter-offensive activities in Sumy Oblast, as evidenced by recent drone footage, maintaining pressure and reconnaissance in the border region. Putin will continue diplomatic engagements at the SCO summit, including bilateral meetings (e.g., with Armenian PM Pashinyan and Nikolai Patrushev, and potentially with Aliyev of Azerbaijan). RF will likely engage in efforts to manage internal logistical challenges, such as addressing fuel shortages in occupied territories. RF will employ internal information operations, such as historical analogies, to boost the morale of its forces and population. NEW: "Два майора" (RF source) publishes video footage of artillery strikes on entrenched positions and structures on the Zaporizhzhia front, confirming continued engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Confirmed demand and adaptation by RF ground units, new evidence of volunteer logistical support for specialized equipment, continued RF battlefield narratives and tactical claims, new confirmed localized ground advances, UAF FPV strike evidence on Lyman direction confirming RF activity, new claims of integrated kinetic strikes near Siversk, new geo-located photos showing RF activity near Konstantinovka/Krasnoarmiysk, new claims of FPV control over Pokrovsk roads, new RF claims of coal mine capture, new UAF claims of encirclement, and new confirmed CSTO exercises in Belarus, including nuclear planning, and continued UAF SOF activity. New diplomatic engagement at SCO, including potential new bilateral meetings. New COA for internal logistical management. New COA for internal morale-boosting IO. New COA for artillery strikes on Zaporizhzhia front. New RF claims of significant Donbas advances.)
  3. Intensified Strategic Information Operations Amplification & Diplomatic Engagement, Highlighting Western Disunity and Discrediting Ukraine/Allies; Direct Counter-IO Against Ukrainian Long-Range Strikes and Western Europe's Role in Conflict; Diversionary IO on Internal Issues or External Threats; Potential Disinformation Regarding Ukrainian Casualties/Losses; Amplified CSTO Exercise Narratives (including Nuclear Planning); Shifting Blame for Lack of Peace Talks; Deterring Foreign Nationals from Perceived Hostile Activities; Projecting Russian Public Desire for Peace; PSYOP Targeting UAF Mobilization; Exploiting Perceived EU/German Weakness/Divisions; Internal Censorship/Suppression: RF state and pro-Kremlin media will intensify efforts to amplify Putin's diplomatic engagements (SCO summit, Xi-Modi talks, Iranian President's arrival, Putin-Pashinyan meeting, Putin-Patrushev meeting, discussion of Moscow-Washington contacts, potential Aliyev meeting), promote claimed tactical battlefield successes (Illichivsk strike, Redkodub, Ivanivka, Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmiysk, Dimitrov entry, Zarichne/Maliyivka advances, Kryvyi Rih gas strike, shooting down UAF drones, Siversk strikes, FPV control over Pokrovsk roads, coal mine capture, "PU была" strike, Illichivsk military cargo strike, Novoselivka engagements, over 80 settlements liberated in Donbas), project internal stability (blogger shifts, Manturov comments, opt-out of mass calls, while also reporting on unrelated internal incidents like alcohol poisoning and social disparities, and new gift-giving regulations, denying Murmansk abortion ban, reporting on Kolobok statue), and directly counter any narratives exposing alleged RF atrocities (e.g., "Mikhail 'Migel'" testimony) or internal incidents (Balashikha fire). A new focus will be on discrediting UAF mobilization efforts (e.g., Kyiv mobilization video, Rivne funeral summons claims) or inflating threat perceptions (e.g., "Azov" redeployment). RF IO will increasingly target the relationship between Ukraine and Poland/Germany, leveraging issues like refugee benefits to sow discord, and will amplify any reports (e.g., Germany's stance on troops, Hungary's veto) that highlight perceived Western disunity or reluctance to support Ukraine, including German statements denying discussions of ground troop deployment. RF will also launch direct counter-IO against Zelenskyy's statements on continuing long-range strikes into Russia and explicitly blame European countries for hindering peace efforts, and criticize France. RF IO will also promote narratives of external threats to RF (e.g., Arctic, Baltic Sea exercises, US Patriot sales), highlight internal economic issues (e.g., oil industry, "defective" iPhones), use the death of Ukrainian figures (e.g., Parubiy, Zakharchenko) for disinformation, and promote narratives of high RF troop recovery rates from injury ("97% wounded return to duty"). RF IO will also promote claims of capacity restoration at critical infrastructure (e.g., Kursk NPP). RF IO will heavily amplify narratives surrounding the CSTO exercises in Belarus, stressing themes of "Strength in Unity," collective defense, and military readiness, and will explicitly mention planning the use of nuclear weapons, aimed at a domestic, allied, and international audience. RF IO will frame UAF long-range strikes as a direct response to Zelenskyy's statements and will continue to portray a lack of reciprocity from Kyiv and Europe regarding peace talks, blaming them for the ongoing conflict. RF will continue to use travel bans or other restrictions to deter foreign nationals from perceived hostile activities (e.g., 39 Poles banned from RF). RF IO will continue to present survey data suggesting a majority of Russians desire peace, attempting to portray a peaceful populace forced into conflict. RF IO will intensify PSYOP campaigns targeting UAF mobilization efforts, portraying them as aggressive or coercive, and will use sarcastic framing of UAF long-range missile launches. RF IO will intensify efforts to portray the EU as fractured and weak by focusing on internal debates regarding frozen assets and will highlight perceived German militarization. RF may also increase internal censorship/suppression of critical voices, as indicated by the critical internal commentary in Север.Реалии, and a third criminal case against Maria Ponomarenko. RF IO will also use ironic diplomatic rhetoric against Lithuania (re-swamping border). (HIGH CONFIDENCE - Ongoing IO, new diplomatic activity, new counter-atrocity focus, new PSYOP focus, potential new counter-incident focus, new focus on Polish-Ukrainian/German-Ukrainian relations, new focus on Western division, new IO directly countering Zelenskyy, new IO blaming Europe, and new IO on external threats, internal economic issues, potential disinformation regarding Parubiy/Zakharchenko's death, force generation, Kursk NPP, criticism of France, FPV control over Pokrovsk roads, coal mine capture, "PU была" strike, German troop statements, Baltic Sea exercises, US Patriot sales, gift-giving regulations, and new amplification of CSTO exercises including nuclear planning. New COAs for shifting blame, deterring foreign nationals including Poles, and projecting Russian public desire for peace. New military cargo strike claim in Illichivsk. New PSYOP for UAF mobilization and sarcastic framing of UAF actions. New diplomatic discussions of Moscow-Washington contacts. New IO reinforcing historical analogies. New IO targeting EU/German weakness/divisions. New COA for internal censorship/suppression. New IO on Donbas advances, RF internal social issues, and ironic diplomatic rhetoric.)

• Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

  1. Massive Coordinated Multi-Domain Attack on Critical Infrastructure (Energy, Transport, Water, Gas, Military C2/ISR, and Civilian Centers including Kyiv), Leveraging Drone Swarms and Cyber Attacks, Potentially Combined with Black Sea Naval Blockade/Mine Laying, and a Large-Scale Conventional Ground Offensive on a New Axis (Potentially from Belarus, Coordinated with CSTO Forces including Nuclear Weapons Planning): RF could launch a highly coordinated, multi-domain strike (massed drones, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles) targeting multiple critical civilian energy, transport, water, and gas infrastructure sites (e.g., across Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kryvyi Rih), key UAF military C2/ISR nodes, and major civilian centers including Kyiv, as indicated by new drone activity towards the capital, simultaneously, aiming to cause widespread blackouts, transport disruption, command disruption, and humanitarian crisis. This could be augmented by large-scale cyber attacks on SCADA systems controlling infrastructure and military networks. The effectiveness of this would be maximized by preceding reconnaissance and could be exacerbated if UAF air defenses are overwhelmed or if predicted magnetic storms (02 SEP) degrade UAF systems. The attacks on Chornomorsk port facilities, Nizhyn water infrastructure, claimed Kryvyi Rih gas infrastructure hit, extensive damage in Zaporizhzhia, and confirmed Dnipro strike, heighten this risk. Concurrently, RF could escalate its mine warfare in the Black Sea, attempting a de facto naval blockade of Ukrainian ports. This could be accompanied by a large-scale, combined-arms ground offensive on a new axis (e.g., Northern, or a renewed push into Sumy Oblast, as suggested by RF IO, potentially as a counter to UAF SOF activity), potentially leveraging CSTO forces from Belarus, with the explicit intent of practicing nuclear weapons planning in the exercises, aiming to exploit fixed UAF defenses or draw reserves from other critical sectors. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Precursors include massed drone attacks on energy and transport infrastructure, ballistic missile threats, multi-domain capabilities, increased RF deep strike activity with expanded target sets; low confidence on magnetic storm impact specifics. NEW mine incident raises the risk of naval escalation. The re-emergence of RF IO on Sumy, and now confirmed UAF SOF activity in Sumy, suggests a possible diversionary or new offensive axis for RF. NEW CSTO exercises in Belarus, now with explicit nuclear weapons planning, raise the risk of a coordinated offensive from the North. Confirmed drone attack on Dnipro increases risk to critical infrastructure. New UAF strikes on RF radar/air defense in Crimea could provoke an RF response. New drone activity towards Kyiv increases risk to the capital. New multi-weapon attacks on Dnipropetrovsk.)
  2. Localized Ground Offensive Exploiting Reconnaissance and Tactical Drone Superiority (Integrated with Artillery), Supported by Intensified IO and Exploiting Perceived UAF Weakness (e.g., Pokrovsk, Zarichne, Dobropillya) with a Larger-Scale Diversionary Attack, Potentially Coupled with Increased Cross-Border Kinetic Activity into RF, and Further Control over ZNPP, Including Targeting Civilian Vessels with Perceived Military Cargo, and Enhanced Tactical Counter-Drone Measures: RF could leverage its persistent reconnaissance and enhanced tactical drone capabilities (including FPVs and COTS drones at the unit level, and integrated "Lancet" strikes) to identify a vulnerable point along the front line in Eastern or Southern Ukraine, leading to a rapid, localized ground offensive supported by heavy fire and coordinated tactical drone strikes, aimed at achieving a tactical breakthrough or seizing key terrain, particularly if UAF assets (like artillery and UAV C2) are effectively neutralized by RF drones. This could be focused on areas where RF claims UAF personnel are "finished off" (Redkodub), where UAF redeployments are claimed (Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmiysk), where UAF FPV drones are actively engaging RF (Lyman direction), or where RF claims ground gains (Kamyshevakha/Peski, Novoselivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, over 80 settlements liberated in Donbas), or where UAF claims RF forces are encircled (Dobropillya). New claims and corroboration of advances in Zarichne/Maliyivka, and claims of strikes near Siversk, and FPV control over Pokrovsk roads, suggest probing for such opportunities. This would be immediately followed by intense IO claiming significant breakthroughs and demoralization of UAF, and could be accompanied by a larger-scale, highly kinetic diversionary attack on another axis (e.g., Zaporizhzhia) to fix UAF reserves. The RF claim of a Ukrainian attack in Kursk Oblast or the destruction of a UAV over Bryansk Oblast may be a pretext for escalating cross-border kinetic activity in a "retaliatory" fashion. RF could further assert its control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, potentially restricting additional international access or engaging in actions that create radiological risk. RF could intensify targeting of civilian vessels that it claims are transporting military cargo, potentially leading to increased maritime incidents and risks to commercial shipping. RF could intensify tactical counter-drone measures, such as deploying more "trap nets" and reconnaissance engineer teams, to neutralize UAF tactical UAVs, aiming to gain local air superiority on the battlefield. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Reconnaissance and tactical drone capabilities enable exploitation, confirmed localized ground advances, but no direct indicators of an imminent large-scale ground offensive; IO aspect is highly likely. RF claims concerning Redkodub, Pokrovsk (including FPV control of roads), Dimitrov, Zarichne, Maliyivka, Siversk, UAF FPV activity in Lyman, RF claims of coal mine capture, and UAF claims of Dobropillya encirclement suggest areas of potential focus. Diversionary attack is a perennial MDCOA. NEW RF claim of Ukrainian attack into RF territory or UAV destruction in Bryansk raises the risk of escalating cross-border kinetic activity. NEW IAEA access denial at ZNPP raises the risk of further RF control over the nuclear plant. NEW potential for increased targeting of civilian vessels with perceived military cargo. NEW RF focus on tactical counter-drone measures. New RF claims of significant Donbas advances.)
  3. Expanded Hybrid Operations (Kinetic, Cyber, Atrocity-Denial IO) Targeting New Infrastructure/Regions and Escalated Geopolitical Confrontation with Internal Repression and Direct Military-Technical Support from Allies, and Coordinated Military Demonstrations with CSTO Allies (including Nuclear Weapons Planning), and Further Undermining of Ukraine's International Standing (e.g., EU Membership), and Targeting UAF DIB/ISR Systems: RF could expand its hybrid operations (kinetic strikes on new critical infrastructure sectors (e.g., financial, healthcare), cyber attacks, intensified disinformation) to target new critical infrastructure sectors or new geographical regions, aiming to create widespread disruption. Concurrently, RF might use its diplomatic engagements (e.g., SCO summit) to solidify an anti-Western bloc and overtly challenge international support for Ukraine, leading to more aggressive geopolitical actions or rhetoric beyond the current scope, while simultaneously launching massive IO campaigns to deny any and all allegations of war crimes or atrocities by RF forces (e.g., by discrediting sources like "Mikhail 'Migel'"), and intensifying efforts to destabilize relations between Ukraine and its allies (e.g., Poland, Germany), and amplify perceived Western divisions. This could be combined with overt military-technical support from allies (e.g., China, Iran, North Korea) that includes more advanced weaponry or integrated systems. Internally, RF may escalate measures against perceived dissent or internal security threats (e.g., third criminal case against Ponomarenko), potentially using incidents like the Balashikha fire as a pretext. This could be augmented by further coordinated military demonstrations and exercises with CSTO allies, explicitly including nuclear weapons planning, aimed at intimidating Ukraine and NATO and projecting a unified military front. RF could intensify efforts to undermine Ukraine's international standing and aspirations, particularly its EU membership bid, by exploiting internal EU divisions (e.g., frozen assets) and leveraging narratives of Ukrainian weakness or lack of "reciprocity" for peace. RF could intensify deep strikes against UAF Defense Industrial Base (DIB) and ISR systems (radar, satellite navigation, air defense), seeking to degrade Ukraine's ability to produce military equipment and maintain battlefield awareness, especially in occupied territories like Crimea. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Precedents in hybrid operations and geopolitical maneuvering exist, with new Odesa/Chornomorsk/Dnipro/Nizhyn/Zaporizhzhia/Kryvyi Rih/Dniproptrovsk strikes highlighting target expansion; new IO focus on atrocity-denial and discrediting UAF is likely, as is the new focus on Polish-Ukrainian/German-Ukrainian relations and Western divisions; internal security incident in Balashikha and new criminal cases raise the potential for domestic escalation. Continued high-level diplomatic engagement suggests a push for deeper alliances and potential military-technical support. NEW CSTO exercises, now including nuclear weapons planning, indicate an increased risk of coordinated military demonstrations. NEW potential for RF to further undermine Ukraine's international standing, particularly EU membership, using existing EU divisions and IO narratives. NEW potential for intensified strikes against UAF DIB and ISR systems in occupied territories.)

• Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

  • Immediate (0-12 hours): UAF IAMD and ground units in Chernihiv (especially Nizhyn, and Kyiv Oblast), Sumy, Poltava, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk (including Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro City), Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Donetsk (especially Siversk, Konstantinovka, Krasnoarmiysk, Pokrovsk, Kamyshevakha, Dobropillya, Novoselivka, Marfopil), Kherson (Dniprovskyi district), and all areas under air raid alert must remain on highest alert for incoming kinetic strikes, particularly massed drone attacks targeting critical energy, transport infrastructure (especially port facilities), water supply systems, gas infrastructure, and ballistic/cruise missile threats. Naval/coastal defense units near Odesa must enhance vigilance against mine threats and be prepared for "Flamingo" missile launches. ISR assets should prioritize tracking inbound reconnaissance UAVs, identifying kinetic drone/MLRS/artillery launch sites (deep and tactical, including COTS drone operations by RF ground units), and deep strike drone launch sites to interdict them before they can relay targeting data or deliver payloads. Urgent IMINT verification of Simferopol airport helicopter destruction remains a top priority. STRATCOM must prepare to counter RF propaganda using diplomatic events and claimed tactical drone successes (e.g., Ivanivka, Siversk, Pokrovsk roads, coal mine capture, "PU была" strike, Illichivsk military cargo strike, Novoselivka engagements, over 80 settlements liberated in Donbas), and continue to expose RF's "outright lies" regarding battlefield outcomes and launch strong counter-PSYOP, especially countering narratives targeting Polish-Ukrainian and German-Ukrainian relations and Western division, and RF IO directly countering Zelenskyy's statements and blaming Europe, and RF IO on Kursk NPP and France, and RF PSYOP targeting UAF mobilization and sarcastic framing of UAF missile launches, and RF morale-boosting historical analogies, and new IO on German militarization and EU frozen assets. Clarify explicit timeframe (e.g., "overnight") for UAF Air Force claim of 126/142 UAVs neutralized. UAF must immediately conduct BDA for Nizhyn, Dnipro, Chornomorsk/Illichivsk, and claimed Kryvyi Rih strikes, and continue detailed reporting on Zaporizhzhia and the civilian fatality in Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast attacks. Monitor RF internal channels for further details and official statements on the Balashikha fire. Verify RF claims on UAF tank destruction, FPV ambush, UAF remnants, "Azov" redeployment, Dimitrov entry, Maliyivka/Zarichne advances, Siversk strikes (Akatsiya, UAV C2), FPV control over Pokrovsk roads, coal mine capture, "PU была" strike, the RF claim of a Ukrainian attack in Kursk Oblast, and RF claims of engagements near Novoselivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and RF claims of UAV destruction over Bryansk Oblast, and RF claims of Donbas liberation. Assess the accuracy and impact of STERNENKO's report on civilian exodus following the "18-22" decree. UAF SOF in Sumy Oblast should consolidate gains and expand reconnaissance. UAF RHB units in Chernobyl zone should maintain monitoring. UAF forces should confirm and exploit any RF encirclement near Dobropillya. ISR should closely monitor the CSTO exercises in Belarus for any indicators of offensive intent or unusual force dispositions, and explicitly for nuclear weapons planning. STRATCOM should also prepare to counter RF narratives regarding IAEA access denial at ZNPP. ISR should prioritize BDA on the Dnipro drone attack and the claimed Illichivsk military cargo strike, and on the new UAF GUR strikes in Crimea. STRATCOM should immediately address the World Bank's reconstruction estimate, leveraging it for international support calls, and address Hungary's continued obstruction to EU membership. ISR must prioritize BDA for the UAF FPV drone strike on the RF convoy, and the UAF FPV drone strike in Kharkiv Oblast. STRATCOM should prepare to amplify the destruction of the RF Supercam UAV and the agreement between China and India to resume flights (as an example of diplomacy, without endorsing the actors). (PRIORITY: CRITICAL - IMMEDIATE - EXPLICIT TARGETING OF WIDER RANGE OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, INCLUDING PORT TERMINALS, WATER SYSTEMS, AND GAS SYSTEMS, CONTINUED MISSILE THREAT, NEW MARITIME MINE THREAT, AND NEW CIVILIAN FATALITY FROM DRONE. UAF COASTAL DEFENSE CAPABILITY DEMONSTRATED. NEW LIKELIHOOD OF RF RETALIATION. NEW RHB THREAT. NEW IAEA ACCESS DENIAL. CONFIRMED DRONE ATTACK ON DNIPRO. NEW UAF GUR STRIKES IN CRIMEA. NEW DRONE ACTIVITY TOWARDS KYIV. NEW UAF FPV STRIKE ON RF CONVOY. NEW UAF SUPERCAM BDA. NEW INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC DEVELOPMENT. NEW RF IO ON GERMAN MILITARIZATION AND EU FROZEN ASSETS. NEW RF ATTACKS ON DNIPROPETROVSK, UAF AD IN KYIV OBLAST, RF CLAIMS UAV DESTRUCTION IN BRYANSK, RF CLAIMS DONBAS LIBERATION, CSTO NUCLEAR PLANNING, UAF FPV STRIKE BDA IN KHARKIV OBLAST.)
  • Short-term (12-48 hours): UAF must conduct immediate comprehensive BDA on all critical infrastructure targets hit by recent strikes, especially Odesa's energy facilities, Chornomorsk's port terminal/energy/railway and water infrastructure, Dnipro, Nizhyn's critical infrastructure (energy/water), claimed Kryvyi Rih gas infrastructure, and the civilian impact/damage in Zaporizhzhia and civilian fatality in Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast attacks. STRATCOM needs to actively counter RF narratives, particularly those promoting diplomatic achievements, historical revisionism (Zakharchenko commemoration, Tsar Leonid analogy), exaggerating battlefield successes (e.g., Ivanivka, Siversk, Pokrovsk roads, coal mine capture, "PU была" strike, Illichivsk military cargo strike, Novoselivka engagements, over 80 settlements liberated in Donbas), and discrediting UAF, and specifically counter any RF narratives attempting to undermine Polish-Ukrainian and German-Ukrainian relations (e.g., refugee benefit claims, German militarization) or highlight Western division (e.g., Germany/Hungary reports, EU frozen assets), and RF IO directly against Zelenskyy's statements and blaming Europe, and RF IO on Kursk NPP and France, and RF PSYOP on UAF mobilization and sarcastic framing of UAF missile launches. Proactively address the civilian exodus narrative and the death of Andriy Parubiy, ensuring factual reporting. Transparently report on UAF PVO successes (especially the high number of UAV shoot-downs, and neutralization over Dnipro, and Supercam destruction, and AD in Kyiv Oblast, and FPV strike BDA in Kharkiv Oblast) and resilience (e.g., power/transport/water/gas restoration, effective warnings), and confirmed RF losses (e.g., "Анатолій Штефан 'Штірліц'" reports, 58th Brigade's 2S1 strike (with new video), Syrskyi's 290k RF losses metric, STERNENKO's FPV strike, BŪTUSOV ПЛЮС mine incident, Sumy counter-offensive, Dobropillya encirclement, Lyman direction tactical successes, new UAF GUR strikes in Crimea, new UAF FPV strike on RF convoy, RF double-kill in Marfopil). Emphasize the urgent need for advanced IAMD systems and munitions from international partners, with a clear focus on defeating multi-wave, high-tempo drone (including deep strike and COTS tactical drones) and missile attacks across all threatened regions, and for counter-ISR/counter-kinetic drone technology at both the strategic and tactical levels, with a specific and urgent focus on protecting critical civilian energy, transport, water, and gas infrastructure, and for maritime mine countermeasures. If confirmed, publicly report the Simferopol airport strike and Tula explosives warehouse strike. Use strong counter-narratives against RF leadership and its allies where appropriate. Publicly affirm President Zelenskyy's statement on continuing long-range strikes into Russia, and provide specific details (if possible) on the targets and impact of active "Flamingo" missile use against RF territory, highlighting indigenous capability. Publicly highlight Ukrainian civilian resilience and adaptation, such as the development of "underground" schools in Zaporizhzhia, to counter RF's efforts to demoralize the population. Vigorously condemn RF's denial of IAEA access to the ZNPP dam by RF forces, emphasizing the risks to nuclear safety and international law. Counter RF narratives promoting CSTO exercises in Belarus, especially nuclear planning, by highlighting their destabilizing nature or lack of transparency. Continue to promote and amplify fundraising efforts for UAF needs, such as vehicle procurement for frontline units. Amplify the World Bank's estimate for post-war reconstruction, using it to underscore the scale of international financial support required. Directly address Hungary's continued obstruction to Ukraine's EU membership talks, using diplomatic channels and public statements to counter this narrative. Use strong, morale-boosting messages (e.g., "Death to Russians!"). (PRIORITY: HIGH)
  • 02 SEP: Assess the actual impact of predicted magnetic storms on C2, ISR, and precision strike capabilities for both UAF and RF. Adjust operational plans accordingly, prioritizing hardened systems.
  • Next Week: Continuous assessment of RF's ability to sustain widespread massed drone attacks and diversified kinetic strikes, and the effectiveness of UAF's IAMD against these evolving threats. Strategic planning for long-term DIB and critical infrastructure protection remains crucial. Ukraine's diplomatic corps will need to vigorously engage with international partners to secure a significant boost in counter-UAV/IAMD capabilities, with a clear focus on defeating both reconnaissance and strike platforms across all threatened regions, including tactical ground defense against attack drones, and to secure advanced mine countermeasure capabilities. Continue to expose RF's external supply chains for UAV components. Closely monitor the outcomes of CSTO exercises in Belarus, including nuclear planning, and assess any implications for RF and Belarusian force disposition and potential threat vectors.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

• Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

  • Defensive Posture (IAMD & Critical Infrastructure Protection): UAF Air Force is maintaining high alert and providing real-time warnings for RF aerial threats across multiple Oblasts, demonstrating a proactive defensive posture. The claimed neutralization of Shahed drones over Dnipro and the 126/142 UAV shoot-down rate indicate high readiness in IAMD. However, the confirmed strikes on critical energy, port, water, and gas infrastructure, and now drone activity towards Kyiv, underscore the persistent challenge. UAF RHB reconnaissance units are actively monitoring the Chernobyl exclusion zone. NEW: UAF Air Defense is active in Kyiv Oblast against enemy UAVs.
  • Offensive Posture (Deep Strike & Tactical Counter-Offensive): UAF is actively conducting long-range strikes into RF territory using "Flamingo" missiles, as affirmed by President Zelenskyy and evidenced by video footage. UAF GUR has demonstrated sophisticated deep strike capabilities by successfully targeting multiple RF radar and air defense systems in Crimea. UAF SOF (KRAKEN's "Shybenyk Squad") are conducting counter-offensive operations in Sumy Oblast, showing tactical agility and reconnaissance capabilities. UAF "Ivan Franko Group" has demonstrated effective FPV drone strikes against RF military convoys. Frontline units are demonstrating precision targeting capabilities (e.g., 58th Brigade destroying a 2S1 howitzer, "VIDARR" and "Signum" FPV drone units destroying RF personnel on Lyman direction). UAF is actively addressing and responding to information surrounding the claimed encirclement of RF forces near Dobropillya. NEW: "Оперативний ЗСУ" (UAF source) publishes FPV drone footage claiming the destruction of RF equipment in Kharkiv Oblast, demonstrating continued tactical offensive capabilities.
  • Adaptability and Resilience: Civilian populations are adapting to threats with initiatives like "underground" schools in Zaporizhzhia. UAF Naval Forces are demonstrating coastal defense capabilities with "Flamingo" missile launches.
  • Information Environment Engagement: UAF General Staff and Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi are actively providing updates on RF losses and UAF successes. UAF sources are disseminating verified BDA and countering RF disinformation. UAF is also making strong diplomatic statements, such as amplifying the US call for peace/sanctions and the Polish PM's statement against concessions to Putin. UAF continues to demonstrate effective counter-ISR by destroying RF reconnaissance UAVs. NEW: UAF sources amplify the World Bank's reconstruction estimate.

• Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

  • Successes:
    • UAF GUR Drone Strikes in Crimea: Successful drone strikes against multiple RF radar and S-400 air defense systems in Crimea represent a significant operational success, degrading RF IAMD in occupied territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Drone Neutralization over Dnipro: UAF claims successful neutralization of Shahed drones over Dnipro, indicating effective IAMD. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF FPV Drone Strike on RF Convoy: Video evidence from "Ivan Franko Group" confirms a successful FPV drone strike on an RF military convoy, demonstrating effective tactical interdiction of logistics/personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF SOF Counter-Offensive in Sumy: GoPro and drone footage from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" confirms active and successful counter-offensive actions by UAF SOF in Sumy Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Losses in Zaporizhzhia: "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" reports the "double-kill" of two RF brothers in Marfopil, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating successful UAF engagements. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF Coastal Defense Missile Launches: Video evidence of "Flamingo" missile launches from coastal positions highlights an active and capable UAF coastal defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF Precision Strikes: Continued reporting and new video of the 58th Brigade destroying an RF 2S1 howitzer, and FPV drone strikes by "VIDARR" and "Signum" units on the Lyman direction, showcase persistent UAF precision strike capabilities against RF assets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Supercam UAV Destruction: STERNENKO (UAF source) reports the destruction of another RF Supercam reconnaissance UAV, demonstrating continued UAF counter-ISR effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF FPV Drone Strike in Kharkiv Oblast: "Оперативний ЗСУ" (UAF source) publishes FPV drone footage claiming the destruction of RF equipment, including a BTR/armored vehicle and a Nona self-propelled gun, and engaging motorized infantry on motorcycles in Kharkiv Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • UAF Air Defense in Kyiv Oblast: UAF Air Defense is actively working against enemy UAVs in Kyiv Oblast, demonstrating continued IAMD effectiveness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Setbacks:
    • Critical Infrastructure Damage: Despite IAMD efforts, RF massed drone attacks have caused significant damage to energy, port, and water infrastructure in Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Nizhyn, and gas infrastructure near Kryvyi Rih. Civilian casualties and extensive building damage in Zaporizhzhia are also confirmed. New drone activity towards Kyiv indicates continued deep strike penetration. NEW: UAF Dnipropetrovsk OVA reports multi-weapon attacks on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, resulting in destruction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • RF Tactical Advances: RF and UAF sources corroborate RF advances in Zarichne, Donetsk Oblast. RF claims of capturing the 'Pisciy' coal mine and FPV drone control over roads leading to Pokrovsk, indicate continued localized pressure. NEW: Kotsnews (RF source) claims Russian offensive in Donbas liberated over 80 settlements over summer, an unverified but significant claim of RF advances. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
    • Civilian Mine Incident: A civilian vessel detonated a mine near Odesa's coast, highlighting persistent maritime hazards and operational risks for UAF and civilian shipping. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Resource Requirements and Constraints:

  • Immediate IAMD & Counter-Drone Aid: The continued massed drone and missile attacks on critical infrastructure, including port and water facilities, necessitates an urgent and significant increase in advanced IAMD systems and munitions capable of defeating multi-layered drone and missile threats. This also includes more tactical counter-drone technology for frontline units to counter COTS drones.
  • Mine Countermeasures: The civilian mine incident underscores an urgent requirement for advanced mine countermeasure capabilities to ensure safe maritime passage.
  • Logistical Support: Ongoing fundraising efforts for frontline vehicles (e.g., 153rd OMBR) indicate persistent requirements for basic logistical support and equipment.
  • Long-term Reconstruction: The World Bank's estimate of over $520 billion for post-war reconstruction highlights massive long-term financial resource requirements.
  • International Diplomatic Support: Hungary's continued obstruction to EU membership talks represents a diplomatic constraint that requires sustained engagement to overcome.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

• Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

  • RF Narrative: RF continues to project an image of strength and international relevance through Putin's diplomatic engagements at the SCO summit, promoting a multipolar world order and highlighting bilateral meetings (Xi Jinping, Pashinyan, Patrushev, potential Aliyev). RF state media actively amplifies perceived Western disunity (Germany's stance on troops, Hungary's EU veto, Polish refugee regulations, EU frozen assets) and blames Europe/Kyiv for hindering peace efforts. RF sources promote tactical battlefield successes (e.g., capture of the 'Pisciy' coal mine, advances in Zarichne/Maliyivka, FPV control over Pokrovsk roads, Siversk strikes, "PU была" strike, Illichivsk military cargo strike, Novoselivka engagements, over 80 settlements liberated in Donbas), and employ PSYOP to discredit UAF mobilization (e.g., funeral summons claims) and satirize UAF long-range strikes ("anti-crisis flight of Flamingo"). Internal IO uses historical analogies ("Tsar Leonid") to boost morale. RF also attempts to normalize internal incidents (Balashikha fire localization, alcohol poisoning, Murmansk abortion ban denial, Kursk Kolobok statue) and manages social issues (Mariupol axe incident, "defective" iPhones). NEW: RF is attempting to portray Germany as increasingly militaristic. RF is using new external IO regarding Lithuanian border initiatives. RF is explicitly stating that CSTO exercises will practice nuclear weapons planning, which is a significant psychological and strategic messaging attempt. RF is reinforcing internal security narratives by banning Poles from entry.
  • UAF Counter-Narrative: UAF STRATCOM actively counters RF narratives by highlighting the intensity and civilian impact of RF deep strikes on critical infrastructure and residential areas (Kyiv funerals, Zaporizhzhia damage, Odesa/Chornomorsk/Nizhyn strikes, civilian fatality in Kherson, Dnipro attacks), often with emotional appeals (Kyiv dog story). UAF publicizes its own tactical successes (GUR strikes in Crimea, FPV drone strike on RF convoy, SOF counter-offensive in Sumy, RF losses in Marfopil, 58th Brigade destroying 2S1, FPV strikes on Lyman direction, Shahed neutralization over Dnipro, Supercam destruction, FPV strike BDA in Kharkiv Oblast), long-range strike capabilities ("Flamingo" missiles), and indigenous defense innovations. UAF amplifies calls for international support (World Bank reconstruction estimate, US calls for peace/sanctions) and transparently addresses internal challenges (civilian exodus due to decree). UAF firmly rejects RF narratives, such as Peskov's "nonsense" statement, and reinforces international unity against RF (Polish PM Tusk statement, amplifying Germany's commitment to financial/military support over direct troop deployment). Strong morale-boosting messages are used ("Death to Russians!"). NEW: UAF highlights the World Bank's reconstruction estimate.

• Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

  • Ukrainian Morale: Civilian morale is under pressure from sustained critical infrastructure attacks, civilian casualties, and potential mobilization concerns (civilian exodus post "18-22" decree). However, continued resilience (underground schools), public alerts, remembrance ceremonies, and visible UAF successes (GUR strikes, FPV convoy strike, SOF actions, Supercam destruction, FPV strike BDA in Kharkiv Oblast) serve to bolster national morale. Strong, defiant statements from leadership and international partners (Polish PM Tusk) further reinforce resolve.
  • Russian Morale: RF IO attempts to boost morale through propaganda of military successes, diplomatic achievements, and high troop recovery rates. Fuel shortages in LPR could negatively impact local morale and trust in RF administration in occupied territories. Cryptic morale-boosting messages (Старше Эдды's "Tsar Leonid") indicate a need to actively manage morale internally. Internal critical commentary (Север.Реалии) suggests underlying disillusionment. NEW: Reports of "defective" iPhones and criminal cases against political prisoners indicate potential internal social/political issues affecting morale. RF banning Poles due to unauthorized actions might also be an attempt to manage perceived external threats.

• International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

  • Support for Ukraine: The USA continues to call on Russia to pursue peace or face sanctions. Poland (PM Tusk) has publicly re-affirmed a strong stance against concessions to Putin, reinforcing a united front among key allies. Germany (as amplified by UAF) has clarified its commitment to financial and military support for Ukraine, ruling out troop deployment post-war, which clarifies a key aspect of Western support. Support for Ukraine's IAMD and counter-UAV capabilities remains a high priority for international partners.
  • Challenges to Ukraine: Hungary continues to obstruct Ukraine's EU accession, creating a significant diplomatic hurdle. RF IO continues to exploit and amplify perceived Western divisions (Germany on troops, Polish refugee policies, US Patriot sales to Denmark, Baltic Sea exercises, EU frozen assets).
  • Support for Russia: Putin's active engagement at the SCO summit, including meetings with Xi Jinping, Armenian PM Pashinyan, and Nikolai Patrushev (and potential future meeting with Aliyev), highlights RF's efforts to strengthen diplomatic alliances and create a counter-balance to Western influence. CSTO exercises in Belarus underscore military cooperation with allies. China and India's agreement to resume direct flights indicates strengthening bilateral relations between two major SCO members. NEW: The declaration by "Два майора" (RF source) that CSTO exercises will practice nuclear weapons planning is a significant and concerning development, likely intended to be a strong deterrent message to the international community. RF banning Poles from entry for perceived hostile actions reinforces a confrontational stance.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

• Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

  1. Sustained Deep Strike Campaign on Critical Infrastructure (Energy, Ports, Water, Gas) and Civilian Centers (Including Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk), Coupled with Continued Tactical Drone/Artillery Engagements on Frontlines and Mine Warfare in Black Sea; Intensified IO to Discredit UAF and Project RF Strength; Focused Diplomatic Engagement (including Nuclear Rhetoric): RF will continue its current pattern of widespread, multi-wave drone (Shahed variants, "Geran-2") and missile strikes against critical civilian energy, port (Odesa, Chornomorsk/Illichivsk), water (Nizhyn, Chornomorsk), and gas (Kryvyi Rih) infrastructure, expanding target sets to include civilian centers like Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk as observed by new drone activity in Chernihiv/Kyiv direction and multi-weapon attacks on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. These strikes will aim to cause maximum disruption and degrade civilian resilience. Concurrently, RF ground units will maintain tactical pressure along the Eastern and Southern fronts, heavily relying on COTS drones for ISR and kinetic strikes, integrating them with artillery (as evidenced on Zaporizhzhia front). Mine warfare in the Black Sea will persist, posing a continuous threat to maritime traffic. RF will continue to engage in high-level diplomatic efforts at the SCO summit, leveraging these events for international legitimacy and to secure political/economic support. This will include amplified rhetoric regarding CSTO exercises and explicit reference to nuclear weapons planning. Information operations will remain a key component, focusing on discrediting UAF mobilization (including Rivne funeral summons claims), highlighting perceived Western disunity (including German militarization and EU frozen assets), promoting RF tactical "successes" (e.g., Pisciy coal mine, Zarichne advances, FPV control over Pokrovsk roads, over 80 settlements liberated in Donbas), and projecting internal stability and military competence through historical analogies ("Tsar Leonid") and reports of "Magarik" teams. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  2. Localized Ground Probing and Consolidation in Donetsk Oblast (e.g., Zarichne, Maliyivka, Peski/Pisciy Coal Mine), Responding to UAF Deep Strikes in Crimea with Enhanced Air Defense; Continuation of CSTO Exercises in Belarus with Information Amplification (including Nuclear Planning); Internal Logistical Management Efforts in Occupied Territories; Continued Defense of RF Internal Territory against UAVs: RF forces will attempt to consolidate recent gains in Zarichne and around the Pisciy coal mine, seeking to exploit any perceived UAF weaknesses and further penetrate the Donetsk axis. These efforts will involve continued use of tactical drones for reconnaissance and targeting. In response to successful UAF GUR strikes on RF IAMD in Crimea, RF will prioritize reconstituting and strengthening its air defense network on the peninsula, likely deploying additional systems or re-tasking existing assets to cover newly created gaps, alongside enhanced tactical counter-drone measures like "trap nets" at the unit level. CSTO exercises in Belarus will continue, with RF intensively amplifying narratives of "Strength in Unity" and military readiness to project regional power, explicitly including nuclear weapons planning in the messaging. Simultaneously, RF will undertake efforts to address and manage internal logistical challenges in occupied territories, particularly the reported fuel shortages in LPR, to ensure sustainment for its forces. RF will continue to defend its internal territory against UAV attacks, as evidenced by the destruction of a UAV over Bryansk Oblast. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

• Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

  1. Massive, Coordinated Multi-Domain Attack to Achieve Strategic Paralysis (Kinetic Strikes, Cyber Attacks, Naval Blockade, and Large-Scale Conventional Offensive from Belarus, including Nuclear Weapons Planning Rhetoric): RF could launch an overwhelming, synchronized multi-domain attack aimed at achieving strategic paralysis in Ukraine. This would involve:
     • Maximized Kinetic Strikes: A wave of massed drones (Shaheds), cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles targeting all critical civilian infrastructure sectors simultaneously (energy grid, transport hubs, water/gas systems, communication networks), and key UAF military C2/ISR nodes, including Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk.
     • Aggressive Cyber Offensive: Coordinated large-scale cyberattacks on Ukrainian SCADA systems, military networks, and government digital infrastructure to amplify disruption and sow chaos.
     • Black Sea Naval Blockade: A heightened mine-laying campaign, potentially combined with overt naval presence, to enforce a de facto blockade of Ukrainian ports, severing maritime trade.
     • Northern Offensive from Belarus: A large-scale conventional ground offensive launched from Belarus, potentially leveraging CSTO forces, aiming to exploit UAF fixed defenses, draw reserves from other fronts, and open a new strategic axis towards Kyiv or Western Ukraine. This would be a direct escalation of CSTO exercises, underpinned by explicit nuclear weapons planning in drills.
     • Exploitation of Degraded IAMD in Crimea: Simultaneous, opportunistic strikes by RF forces on newly vulnerable high-value targets in Crimea (e.g., Black Sea Fleet vessels, air assets, C2 nodes) before UAF can fully exploit its recent successes or RF can reconstitute its defenses. This MDCOA would seek to overwhelm UAF defenses on multiple fronts, induce widespread panic, and create a humanitarian catastrophe, fundamentally altering the operational landscape. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
  2. Targeted Strategic Exploitation: Escalated Cross-Border Kinetic Activity into RF, Consolidation of Donetsk Gains, Full Control over ZNPP, Intensified Targeting of Civilian Vessels, and Widespread PSYOP/Hybrid Warfare to Fracture International Support (including Nuclear Threats): RF could leverage its intelligence and tactical drone superiority to identify and exploit a critical weakness along the front, launching a rapid, localized ground offensive to achieve significant territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast (e.g., a breakthrough towards Pokrovsk or a decisive defeat of UAF forces near Dobropillya) and then immediately intensify IO to claim a strategic victory. This could be accompanied by:
     • Escalated Retaliation into RF: Significantly increased cross-border kinetic activity into Ukrainian border regions or even deeper into RF territory (e.g., Kursk Oblast, Bryansk Oblast) under the pretext of "retaliation" for alleged Ukrainian attacks.
     • Complete Control over ZNPP: Full and permanent denial of IAEA access to any part of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and its infrastructure, potentially leading to actions that increase radiological risk, to assert absolute control.
     • Aggressive Maritime Interdiction: Increased targeting of civilian vessels in the Black Sea suspected of carrying military cargo, potentially using mines or direct kinetic strikes, leading to heightened international maritime incidents and risks to global shipping.
     • Hybrid Warfare to Fracture International Support: An intensified, multi-vector PSYOP and hybrid warfare campaign aimed at systematically fracturing international support for Ukraine, specifically targeting the Polish-Ukrainian and German-Ukrainian relationships (refugee issues, historical grievances, German militarization), amplifying Western political divisions (e.g., within the EU or NATO, EU frozen assets), and aggressively countering UAF long-range strike narratives, to isolate Ukraine diplomatically and militarily. This would likely be accompanied by heightened nuclear rhetoric, particularly in the context of CSTO exercises. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

• Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

  • Immediate (0-12 hours):
    • UAF Posture: Highest alert for IAMD and ground units across all threatened Oblasts, especially Chernihiv (Nizhyn), Odesa, Chornomorsk, Dnipropetrovsk (Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro), Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Kherson, and Kyiv Oblast due to new drone activity and multi-weapon attacks. Prioritize defense of critical energy, transport, water, and gas infrastructure. Naval/coastal defense must maintain vigilance against mine threats and be prepared for "Flamingo" missile launches.
    • ISR Tasking: Prioritize tracking inbound reconnaissance/strike UAVs, identifying kinetic drone/MLRS/artillery launch sites (deep and tactical, especially COTS drones), and deep strike drone launch sites. Urgent IMINT verification of Simferopol airport helicopter destruction remains critical. Urgent BDA for UAF FPV strike on RF convoy, RF Supercam destruction, and UAF FPV drone strike in Kharkiv Oblast. Urgent verification of RF claims of UAV destruction in Bryansk Oblast and Donbas liberation.
    • STRATCOM Focus: Immediate counter-narratives to RF propaganda, including diplomatic spin, claimed tactical successes (including Donbas liberation claims), PSYOP on UAF mobilization/funeral summons, and sarcastic framing of "Flamingo" strikes. Amplify UAF successes (Crimea radar strikes, FPV convoy strike, Supercam destruction, FPV strike BDA in Kharkiv Oblast). Address civilian casualties (Kyiv dog story). Counter new IO on German militarization and EU frozen assets, and RF rhetoric on CSTO nuclear planning.
  • Short-term (12-48 hours):
    • UAF Operations: Conduct immediate, comprehensive BDA on all critical infrastructure hits (Nizhyn, Odesa, Chornomorsk/Illichivsk, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih gas infrastructure, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk attacks) and civilian impacts. Exploit confirmed RF encirclement near Dobropillya. UAF SOF in Sumy continue counter-offensive.
    • Diplomatic/IO: Proactive STRATCOM campaign to expose RF critical infrastructure attacks and atrocities. Advocate for urgent, broad IAMD aid and mine countermeasures. Publicly affirm Zelenskyy's long-range strike intent, publicize indigenous capabilities. Transparently address civilian exodus and Andriy Parubiy's death. Vigorously condemn IAEA access denial. Counter CSTO exercise narratives, especially nuclear planning. Amplify reconstruction needs and counter Hungarian obstruction to EU integration. Publicly amplify US calls for peace/sanctions and Polish PM Tusk's statement. Counter RF morale-boosting IO.
    • Environmental: Assess actual impact of predicted magnetic storms (02 SEP) on UAF and RF C2/ISR/precision strike capabilities; adjust operational plans.
  • Next Week:
    • Sustainment/Long-term: Continuous assessment of RF deep strike sustainment and UAF IAMD effectiveness. Strategic planning for DIB and critical infrastructure protection. Diplomatic engagement for long-term counter-UAV/IAMD and mine countermeasure aid. Monitor CSTO exercise outcomes and implications for northern border, especially related to nuclear planning.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

• CRITICAL: Full Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) on RF Deep Strikes Against Ukrainian Defense Industrial Base (DIB) and Critical Civilian Infrastructure (PRIORITY Nizhyn Critical Infrastructure (Energy/Water), Odesa Energy Facilities, Chornomorsk Port Terminal & Energy Infrastructure, Illichivsk Railway Ferry Complex, Claimed Kryvyi Rih Gas Infrastructure, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Poltava, AND NEW: Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk) AND UAF Strikes on RF Military Assets (PRIORITY Simferopol Airport (helicopters), Tula Explosives Warehouse, 2S1 Howitzer, and "Flamingo" missile strikes on RF territory, and the alleged Ukrainian attack in Kursk Oblast, and alleged UAF "Akatsiya" and UAV C2 destruction near Siversk, and confirmed UAF SOF actions in Sumy Oblast, and RF "launch vehicle" strike, Illichivsk military cargo strike, UAF GUR strikes on RF radar/air defense in Crimea, AND NEW: UAF FPV drone strike on RF convoy, UAF FPV drone strike in Kharkiv Oblast): Urgent IMINT (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance), SIGINT (intercepts), and HUMINT (local sources, technical intelligence) are required to verify the specific targets, extent of damage, and operational impact of recent RF strikes, especially the damage to critical infrastructure in Nizhyn, four DTEK energy facilities in Odesa, the port terminal and energy infrastructure in Chornomorsk, the railway ferry complex in Illichivsk, claimed gas infrastructure near Kryvyi Rih, the confirmed strike in Dnipro, and the detailed impact in Zaporizhzhia, AND the destruction in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and the destruction of two helicopters at Simferopol airport, the Tula explosives warehouse, the 2S1 howitzer, and to verify the targets and impact of "Flamingo" missile strikes on RF territory, and the alleged Ukrainian attack in Kursk Oblast, and the alleged destruction of UAF "Akatsiya" and UAV C2 near Siversk, and the full extent of UAF SOF engagement and discoveries in Sumy Oblast, and to verify RF claims of a kinetic strike against a UAF "launch vehicle," AND to verify the RF claim of striking an Azerbaijani vessel carrying military cargo and explosives for Ukraine in the Fishing Port of Illichivsk, AND to verify the targets and BDA of UAF GUR drone strikes on RF radar and air defense systems in Crimea, AND to verify the BDA of the UAF "Ivan Franko Group" FPV drone strike on an RF military convoy, AND to verify the BDA of the "Оперативний ЗСУ" FPV drone strike in Kharkiv Oblast. This is paramount for assessing Ukraine's long-term defense capabilities, national resilience, and UAF deep strike effectiveness.
• CRITICAL: Accurate Ground Truth Kamyshevakha / Dobropillya / Redkodub / Dimitrov / Zarichne / Maliyivka / Novoselivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) / Lyman Direction / Siversk / Konstantinovka / Krasnoarmiysk / Pokrovsk Roads (Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts) and RF Force Dispositions/Intentions: Urgent ISR (UAVs, HUMINT from frontline sources) is required to confirm/deny RF claims of capture of Kamyshevakha (specifically the 'Pisciy' coal mine in Peski), UAF claims of encirclement at Dobropillya, RF claims of eliminating UAF remnants near Redkodub, and RF claims of reconnaissance group entry into Dimitrov, and RF/DeepState claims of advances into Zarichne and Maliyivka, and RF claims of engagements in the Novoselivka area of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Specifically, verify details of STERNENKO's FPV drone strike on RF personnel in the Lyman direction, including BDA, and verify details of STERNENKO's new video of UAF "Signum" unit of the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade destroying enemy forces on the Lyman direction, including BDA. Verify RF claims of strikes near Siversk (Akatsiya, UAV C2). Confirm RF activity and presence in Konstantinovka - Rusin Yar and Krasnoarmiysk - Artemivka (Sofiyivka) as indicated by geo-located photos. Verify RF claims of FPV drone control over roads leading to Pokrovsk. NEW: Verify RF claim of liberating over 80 settlements in Donbas over summer. This is essential for validating the front line, assessing RF offensive capabilities, and informing immediate tactical exploitation or defensive action. Specifically, identify RF troop strength, reinforcement capabilities, and intent in these contested areas.
• CRITICAL: Cause and Impact of Balashikha Fire (Moscow Oblast): Urgent IMINT, OSINT (local reporting, official statements), and SIGINT are required to determine the cause of the fire (accident, sabotage, attack) at or near the Balashikha Experimental Chemical Plant and warehouse, assess the extent of damage, and determine if the facility is linked to military production or logistics. This will inform assessment of RF internal security and potential vulnerabilities.
• CRITICAL: Impact of Civilian Exodus from Ukraine (post "18-22" decree): Urgent HUMINT (interviews with departing civilians, local community leaders) and OSINT (social media analysis, border crossing statistics, media reports) are required to verify the scale and impact of civilian exodus from Ukraine following the "18-22" decree. This is crucial for assessing internal morale, labor force availability, and potential strain on social services and military mobilization.
• CRITICAL: IAEA Access to ZNPP Dam: Urgent HUMINT (international observer reports), OSINT (official statements from IAEA, Ukrainian and Russian sources), and IMINT are required to understand the reasons for RF's denial of IAEA access to the newly constructed dam near the ZNPP and to assess any potential military or radiological implications.
• CRITICAL: LPR Fuel Shortages: Urgent IMINT (satellite imagery of gas stations), OSINT (local reporting, social media), and HUMINT (cross-border contacts) are required to verify the extent, cause, and impact of the reported AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline shortages in the LPR. This is crucial for assessing RF logistical capabilities in occupied territories and potential impacts on civilian and military movement.
• CRITICAL (NEW): RF Military Convoy Strike BDA: Urgent IMINT (drone footage analysis, satellite imagery) and HUMINT (frontline reporting) are required to verify the BDA of the UAF "Ivan Franko Group" FPV drone strike on an RF military convoy, including vehicle types, personnel losses, and operational impact. This is crucial for assessing UAF tactical effectiveness against RF logistics and troop movements in rural areas.
• HIGH: RF Massed Drone Attack Patterns, C2, and Associated Strike Assets (PRIORITY Nizhyn/Chernihiv, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk (including Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro), Chornomorsk, Illichivsk, Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, AND NEW: Kyiv, and active Eastern/Southern Fronts - with specific focus on critical energy/transport/water/gas infrastructure targeting, tactical drone capabilities including COTS, and missile launch platforms): Enhanced SIGINT, EW (electronic warfare) intercept capabilities, and IMINT (drone reconnaissance) are required to understand the specific types of massed drones (e.g., "Geran-2"/Shaheds) and tactical kinetic drones (including COTS models like DJI Mavic 3 and Lancet) being employed, their C2 mechanisms, launch sites, flight paths, and, critically, their direct link to follow-on strike assets (e.g., artillery positions, KAB launch platforms, missile systems). This is essential for developing effective pre-emptive counter-drone and counter-missile strategies, especially against coordinated attacks on critical infrastructure. Specifically, investigate the RF claims of the drone strike on a UAF mortar crew, destroyed tank (especially new video near Ivanivka), FPV ambush, civilian fatality in Kherson, Siversk strikes, FPV control over Pokrovsk roads, and the claimed strike against a UAF "launch vehicle," AND the claimed strike on an Azerbaijani vessel carrying military cargo and explosives for Ukraine in the Fishing Port of Illichivsk, AND RF claims of engagements near Novoselivka, Dnipropetropvsk Oblast. Also, monitor for RF counter-UAV operations, including the effectiveness of "trap nets" and reconnaissance engineer teams.
• HIGH: Impact of Predicted Magnetic Storms on UAF and RF C2, ISR, and Precision Strike Capabilities: Urgent technical assessment and modeling are required to determine the specific vulnerabilities and potential degradation of UAF communications, GPS-guided systems, and ISR platforms due to the strong magnetic storms forecast for 02 SEP. Simultaneously, assess the potential impact on RF capabilities and identify any specific vulnerabilities RF might possess (e.g., reliance on commercial GPS). This will inform mitigation strategies and operational adjustments.
• HIGH: Black Sea Mine Threat Assessment: Urgent IMINT (naval reconnaissance, satellite imagery) and SIGINT (RF naval communications) are required to assess the extent of mine laying in the Black Sea, identify patterns, and determine RF intent. Prioritize detection of mine-laying vessels. This is critical for ensuring safe maritime passage.
• HIGH: Verification of RF Claims on Tactical Drone Successes and UAF Claims on RF Demoralization/Atrocities: Urgent IMINT (drone footage analysis, satellite imagery) and HUMINT (frontline reporting, interviews with captured personnel or defectors) are required to verify RF claims, such as the destruction of a UAF mortar crew, logistics vehicle, UAF T-80 tank near Ivanivka (especially new video evidence), FPV ambush near Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmiysk, elimination of UAF remnants near Redkodub, the claimed Kryvyi Rih gas strike, civilian fatality in Kherson, Siversk strikes, FPV control over Pokrovsk roads, coal mine capture, "PU была" strike, the alleged Ukrainian attack in Kursk Oblast, the claimed strike on an Azerbaijani vessel carrying military cargo in Illichivsk Fishing Port, and RF claims of engagements near Novoselivka, Dnipropetropvsk Oblast. Concurrently, verify UAF claims such as the FPV drone strike on a suicidal RF soldier and the "Mikhail 'Migel'" testimony alleging RF atrocities, the encirclement of RF forces near Dobropillya, and the effectiveness of UAF GUR strikes on RF radar/air defense systems in Crimea, AND the reported "double-kill" of RF brothers in Marfopil, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This is crucial for accurate BDA, assessing RF's tactical drone capabilities, and informing IO.
• HIGH: RF Tactical COTS Drone Procurement, Integration, and Volunteer Logistical Support Networks (Including External Supply Chains): Further in-depth investigation into RF ground unit procurement, training, and integration of COTS drones (e.g., DJI Mavic 3). This requires HUMINT (captured personnel, local sources) and OSINT (social media posts, procurement channels) to understand the scale and effectiveness of this adaptation. Additionally, investigate the scale, organization, and funding of the civilian/volunteer logistical networks supporting RF forces to identify potential interdiction points. Further investigate the external supply chains for UAV components, as evidenced by the "Gerbera" UAV footage. Specifically, monitor and analyze requests for Mavic 3 drones by frontline personnel.
• HIGH (NEW): BDA of RF Supercam UAV Destruction: Urgent IMINT (drone footage analysis), SIGINT, and HUMINT are required to confirm the destruction of the RF Supercam reconnaissance UAV, assess the operational impact on RF ISR capabilities, and determine if new counter-ISR tactics were employed.
• HIGH (NEW): RF UAV Destruction in Bryansk Oblast: Urgent IMINT and SIGINT are required to verify RF claims of a destroyed fixed-wing UAV over Bryansk Oblast, including the type of UAV and any BDA.
• HIGH (NEW): RF Claims of Donbas Liberation: Urgent IMINT (historical satellite imagery, current frontline analysis) and HUMINT are required to verify the RF claim that over 80 settlements have been liberated in Donbas over the summer months. This is crucial for assessing the true pace and scale of RF ground advances.
• HIGH (NEW): UAF FPV Drone Strike BDA in Kharkiv Oblast: Urgent IMINT (drone footage analysis, satellite imagery) and HUMINT (frontline reporting) are required to verify the BDA of the "Оперативний ЗСУ" FPV drone strike in Kharkiv Oblast, including identification of destroyed RF equipment (BTR, Nona self-propelled gun), personnel losses, and operational impact.
• MEDIUM: RF Paratrooper Activity in Zaporizhzhia: What is the composition, disposition, and intent of RF paratrooper units previously reported in the Zaporizhzhia direction? Urgent ISR (UAVs, HUMINT from frontline sources) is required.
• MEDIUM: Assessment of RF Strategic Aviation and Ballistic Missile Activity and Intent: Enhanced SIGINT and IMINT are required to continuously monitor RF strategic bomber bases (e.g., Engels-2) and ballistic missile launch sites for signs of heightened activity, pre-flight preparations, and sortie/launch generation patterns, to provide early warning of potential "massive attacks" or high-threat strikes, especially for Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Sumy, Poltava, and Chernihiv Oblasts.
• MEDIUM: Impact and Outcomes of Putin's Visit to China and Broader Geopolitical Shifts: HUMINT (diplomatic sources), OSINT (Chinese and Russian state media, international press), and SIGINT (relevant intercepts) are required to assess any new agreements (military, economic, technological), joint statements, or shifts in policy that may result from Putin's China visit, and to assess the impact of Xi-Modi talks, and the implications of German and Hungarian statements on Ukraine support, and specifically any statements regarding the provision of components for RF UAVs. Also, assess the impact of EU considering new voting rules in foreign policy and US calls for peace/sanctions. Specifically assess the outcomes of Putin's meeting with Armenian PM Pashinyan and Nikolai Patrushev, and potential future meeting with Aliyev (Azerbaijan).
• MEDIUM: Circumstances and Impact of Andriy Parubiy's Death: Urgent HUMINT and OSINT required to understand the circumstances surrounding the death of Andriy Parubiy and its potential impact on Ukrainian politics and public sentiment, especially in light of RF IO attempting to generate conspiracy theories.
• MEDIUM: Status of Kursk Nuclear Power Plant: Verify RF claims of capacity restoration at the Kursk NPP (third power unit). This is crucial for assessing potential RF IO pre-emption and the safety of critical infrastructure.
• MEDIUM: French Involvement in Ukraine: Verify allegations of French involvement in the conflict, as raised by RF IO.
• MEDIUM: CSTO Exercises in Belarus (Nuclear Planning): Urgent ISR (IMINT, SIGINT) and OSINT are required to monitor the scope, duration, participating forces, and the explicit intention to practice nuclear weapons planning of the CSTO exercises in Belarus, and to assess any potential threat to Ukraine's northern border.
• MEDIUM: Russian Public Sentiment on Peace: Verify the accuracy and methodology of the Russian state media report claiming 76% of Russians favor a peace agreement with Ukraine. This requires independent polling data and OSINT analysis of social media sentiment. This is crucial for understanding internal RF dynamics and potential for peace negotiations.
• MEDIUM: RF "Magarik" Reconnaissance Team Tactic Effectiveness: Urgent HUMINT (captured RF personnel, defectors) and technical intelligence are required to assess the effectiveness and widespread deployment of RF reconnaissance teams using "trap nets" to neutralize drones, as highlighted by MoD Russia. This is crucial for UAF counter-drone tactics.
• MEDIUM: Social Disorder in Mariupol: Urgent HUMINT and OSINT (local reporting, social media) are required to verify the nature and extent of social disorder in Mariupol, as implied by Mash na Donbasse's video of a man with an axe. This is crucial for assessing the effectiveness of RF's control over occupied territories.
• MEDIUM: RF PSYOP on UAF Mobilization: Urgent HUMINT and OSINT are required to monitor and counter RF PSYOP campaigns aimed at discrediting UAF mobilization efforts, particularly claims of summons being delivered during funerals. This is crucial for maintaining public trust and morale.
• NEW MEDIUM: RF Internal Social and Political Issues (iPhone sales, Murmansk abortion denial, Ponomarenko case): Urgent OSINT and HUMINT are required to assess the broader implications of these domestic issues on RF internal stability, public morale, and potential for dissent or opposition to the ongoing conflict. This is crucial for understanding the stability of the RF home front.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. IMMEDIATE: Enhance Point-Defense for All Critical Civilian Infrastructure (Energy, Transport, Industrial, Water, Gas, especially Ports, Kyiv, and Dnipropetrovsk) and Bolster IAMD for All Threatened Oblasts Against Missile/Drone Threats - FOCUS ON DEFEATING MASSED DRONE ATTACKS, AND ENHANCE MARITIME MINE COUNTERMEASURES; PREPARE FOR RF RETALIATION ON BORDER REGIONS; MAINTAIN RHB DEFENSE POSTURE; CONDEMN IAEA ACCESS DENIAL; ENHANCE PROTECTION FOR RADAR/AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS IN OCCUPIED TERRITORIES:

   • ACTION: Immediately deploy additional mobile, short-range GBAD systems (e.g., MANPADS, anti-aircraft artillery, short-range missile systems), EW assets capable of detecting, jamming, and kinetically engaging massed deep strike drones (Shaheds, "Geran-2") and ballistic/cruise missiles, specifically prioritizing critical energy, transport (ports, railway hubs), industrial, water supply infrastructure (including Chornomorsk), gas infrastructure, and civilian centers, especially Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk, in Chernihiv (Nizhyn), Odesa, Chornopillya, Dnipropetrovsk (including Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro City), Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, and Kherson (Dniprovskyi district). Task UAF Air Force to maintain combat air patrols or quick reaction alerts to intercept incoming missile and drone launch platforms. Implement enhanced physical hardening and dispersal strategies for all critical facilities, and prepare contingency plans for water and gas supply restoration following attacks. Simultaneously, UAF Naval Forces and coastal defense must increase vigilance and deploy/conduct mine countermeasure operations in the Black Sea, especially near Odesa, to ensure safe passage for civilian and military maritime traffic. Continue to develop and deploy indigenous coastal defense missile systems like "Flamingo." Additionally, UAF units in border regions (e.g., Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv) must be on heightened alert for potential RF retaliatory strikes in response to perceived Ukrainian attacks on RF territory (e.g., Kursk Oblast, Bryansk Oblast). UAF RHB reconnaissance units in the Chernobyl exclusion zone should maintain their monitoring and protection posture. Publicly condemn RF's denial of IAEA access to the ZNPP dam, emphasizing the risks to nuclear safety and international law. Furthermore, enhance physical and electronic protection measures for UAF radar and air defense systems, particularly in occupied territories like Crimea, given recent successful UAF GUR strikes on such targets. (PRIORITY: CRITICAL - IMMEDIATE - EXPLICIT TARGETING OF WIDER RANGE OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, INCLUDING PORT TERMINALS, WATER SYSTEMS, AND GAS SYSTEMS, CONTINUED MISSILE THREAT, NEW MARITIME MINE THREAT, AND NEW CIVILIAN FATALITY FROM DRONE. UAF COASTAL DEFENSE CAPABILITY DEMONSTRATED. NEW LIKELIHOOD OF RF RETALIATION. NEW RHB THREAT. NEW IAEA ACCESS DENIAL. CONFIRMED DRONE ATTACK ON DNIPRO. NEW UAF GUR STRIKES IN CRIMEA. NEW DRONE ACTIVITY TOWARDS KYIV. NEW MULTI-WEAPON ATTACKS ON DNIPROPETROVSK.)
   • REASONING: The confirmed massed drone attacks on Odesa's energy, Chornomorsk's port and energy/railway and water infrastructure, Dnipro, Nizhyn's critical infrastructure (energy and water), the extensive damage and casualties in Zaporizhzhia, and claimed Kryvyi Rih gas infrastructure hit, and new multi-weapon attacks on Dnipropetrovsk, coupled with persistent missile threats and a civilian fatality from a drone, and new drone activity towards Kyiv, highlight an immediate and severe threat to all critical civilian infrastructure and regional security. The civilian mine incident near Odesa introduces a new, significant maritime security threat. Robust and adaptable air defense, particularly point defense, and effective mine countermeasures are paramount to mitigating damage and maintaining national resilience, economic function, and basic civilian services. ISW's assessment reinforces this urgency. UAF's demonstrated coastal defense missile capability is a key asset. RF claims of Ukrainian attacks into RF territory and UAV destruction in Bryansk create a pretext for retaliatory strikes, necessitating increased vigilance in border regions. UAF RHB presence in Chernobyl indicates an awareness of other threats. The denial of IAEA access to ZNPP raises significant nuclear safety concerns that require immediate international attention. Recent successful UAF strikes on RF radar and air defense systems in Crimea demonstrate their vulnerability and the need for their enhanced protection.

2. IMMEDIATE: Intensify All-Source ISR on RF Deep Strike Assets (UAVs, Missile Platforms, Kinetic Drone Launch/Control Units, Tactical COTS Drone Operations by Ground Units, and Logistical Support Networks including External Supply Chains) and Ground Force Movements in Eastern and Northern Axes, with Focus on Contested Areas, Drone C2/Launch Logistics for Multiple Axes, RF Tactical Concealment, Black Sea Mine Laying, RF Counter-UAV Capabilities, RF Internal Defense Capabilities, and CSTO Exercises in Belarus (including Nuclear Planning); CONFIRM AND EXPLOIT RF ENCIRCLEMENT CLAIMS; VERIFY LPR FUEL SHORTAGES; ASSESS RF TACTICAL COUNTER-DRONE EFFECTIVENESS; PRIORITIZE BDA OF UAF FPV CONVOY STRIKE AND SUPERCAM DESTRUCTION; VERIFY RF UAV DESTRUCTION IN BRYANSK AND DONBAS LIBERATION CLAIMS; PRIORITIZE BDA OF UAF FPV STRIKE IN KHARKIV OBLAST:

   • ACTION: Task all-source ISR assets (IMINT, SIGINT, long-range drones, HUMINT, and potentially specialized multi-spectral sensors) for continuous 24/7 monitoring of RF airfields, missile launch platforms, deep strike drone launch sites, all suspected tactical drone launch sites (including those operating COTS drones by RF ground units), and heavy artillery/MLRS positions, especially those capable of reaching Southern, Eastern, and Northern/Central Oblasts, including Kyiv. Prioritize identifying UAV/kinetic drone (especially COTS drone) launch and control sites, as well as logistical nodes enabling the rapid re-arming and relaunch of drone waves responsible for attacks, to enable pre-emptive targeting. Investigate external supply chains for UAV components as evidenced by downed "Gerbera" drone footage. Increase ISR coverage of RF ground force concentrations, logistics (including volunteer supply networks for specialized equipment, especially for COTS drones, and potential fuel shortages in LPR), and suspected advance routes in the Donetsk direction (including Kamyshevakha/Dobropillya/Redkodub/Zarichne/Maliyivka/Novoselivka/Lyman direction/Siversk/Konstantinovka/Krasnoarmiysk/Pokrovsk roads) and verify RF claims regarding Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmiysk (especially "Azov" redeployments and FPV control over Pokrovsk roads), and claims of coal mine capture in Peski, and strikes on UAF reinforcement areas in Sumy, and verify claims of reconnaissance groups entering Dimitrov and Siversk strikes, to provide early warning of potential localized ground assaults and to immediately verify contested claims. Pursue urgent IMINT verification of Simferopol airport helicopter destruction and Tula explosives warehouse. Investigate the Balashikha fire in Moscow Oblast for any indications of sabotage or military relevance. Conduct urgent ISR (IMINT, naval SIGINT) on the Black Sea to identify mine-laying activities and patterns. Monitor and analyze RF counter-UAV capabilities and successes, including the effectiveness of "trap nets" and reconnaissance engineer teams, and RF internal defense capabilities, particularly in border regions following the claim of a Ukrainian attack in Kursk Oblast and UAV destruction in Bryansk Oblast. Monitor UAF SOF activity in Sumy Oblast and RF response. Crucially, immediately verify the OSUV "Dnipro" report of RF forces encircled near Dobropillya, and if confirmed, allocate decisive forces to reduce the pocket and destroy/capture isolated RF units, capitalizing on this tactical success. Immediately task ISR (IMINT, SIGINT) to monitor the CSTO exercises in Belarus for any unusual force dispositions, equipment movements, or indicators of offensive intent towards Ukraine, explicitly noting the declared nuclear weapons planning. Immediately prioritize BDA for the UAF "Ivan Franko Group" FPV drone strike on an RF military convoy, focusing on identifying vehicle types, extent of damage, and potential personnel losses. Also, prioritize BDA for the destruction of the RF Supercam reconnaissance UAV, and the "Оперативний ЗСУ" FPV drone strike in Kharkiv Oblast. Verify RF claims of liberating over 80 settlements in Donbas over summer. (PRIORITY: CRITICAL (IMMEDIATE - ESCALATED & GEOGRAPHICALLY WIDER THREAT TO CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, INCLUDING KYIV, NEW TACTICAL FOCUS ON COTS DRONES AND LOGISTICAL NETWORKS, NEW UAF DEEP STRIKE VERIFICATION, NEW INTERNAL RF INCIDENT, NEW MARITIME MINE THREAT, NEW RF CLAIMS OF GROUND PENETRATION AND COUNTER-UAV CAPABILITIES, NEW EVIDENCE OF EXTERNAL UAV COMPONENT SUPPLY, NEW RF CLAIM OF UKRAINIAN ATTACK, NEW CLAIMS OF INTEGRATED KINETIC STRIKES NEAR SIVERSK, NEW GEO-LOCATED PHOTOS SHOWING RF ACTIVITY NEAR KONSTANTINOVKA/KRASNOARMIYSK, NEW CLAIMS OF FPV CONTROL OVER POKROVSK ROADS, NEW RF CLAIMS OF COAL MINE CAPTURE, NEW UAF CLAIMS OF ENCIRCLEMENT, NEW UAF SOF ACTIVITY IN SUMY, NEW CSTO EXERCISES IN BELARUS, INCLUDING NUCLEAR PLANNING, NEW LPR FUEL SHORTAGES, NEW RF TACTICAL COUNTER-DRONE FOCUS, NEW UAF GUR STRIKES IN CRIMEA, AND CONFIRMED DRONE ATTACK ON DNIPRO, NEW UAF FPV STRIKE ON RF CONVOY, NEW SUPERCAM DESTRUCTION, NEW RF UAV DESTRUCTION IN BRYANSK, NEW RF CLAIMS OF DONBAS LIBERATION, NEW UAF FPV STRIKE BDA IN KHARKIV OBLAST, NEW MULTI-WEAPON ATTACKS ON DNIPROPETROVSK.)
   • REASONING: Real-time, actionable intelligence on RF deep strike capabilities and ground intentions, now including diverse drone threats, explicit critical infrastructure targeting (including Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk), identified logistical shortfalls (including specialized equipment and specific COTS drone requests, and fuel shortages), a new mine threat, new claims of ground penetration, and evidence of external UAV component supply, is essential for pre-emptive defense, effective targeting of launch platforms, and informing tactical defensive maneuvers. Targeting the logistics and C2 elements of rapid UAV/drone operations and volunteer supply lines can directly reduce attack tempo and operational effectiveness. Immediate and accurate ground truth for contested ground and verification of UAF deep strikes, especially the claims of RF encirclement near Dobropillya and the BDA of the UAF FPV convoy strike and Supercam destruction and FPV strike in Kharkiv Oblast, are vital for UAF tactical response and counter-IO. The Balashikha incident, if militarily significant, could present an strategic opportunity. Verification of the Kursk Oblast attack claim and UAV destruction in Bryansk is crucial for assessing RF internal security and the likelihood of retaliation. Monitoring UAF SOF activity in Sumy and RF response is critical for understanding dynamics in the Northern axis. The CSTO exercises in Belarus, especially with nuclear planning, represent a significant military development on Ukraine's northern border that requires immediate and close monitoring to assess any potential threats. LPR fuel shortages could be an exploitable weakness. RF's new focus on tactical counter-drone measures requires immediate assessment. New UAF GUR strikes in Crimea require BDA.

3. IMMEDIATE: Assess and Mitigate Risks from Predicted Magnetic Storms:

   • ACTION: UAF G6 and relevant technical branches must immediately conduct an assessment of all critical C2, ISR, and precision-guided munition systems for vulnerability to strong magnetic storms (forecast for 02 SEP). Implement immediate mitigation strategies, including prioritizing hardened communication channels, alternative navigation methods, and backup systems. Issue guidance to field units on potential impacts.
   • PRIORITY: CRITICAL (IMMEDIATE - NEW ENVIRONMENTAL THREAT)
   • REASONING: Predicted magnetic storms can severely degrade electronic systems crucial for modern warfare. Proactive assessment and mitigation are essential to maintain operational effectiveness and prevent exploitable vulnerabilities.

4. HIGH: Proactive STRATCOM Campaign to Counter RF Disinformation, Highlight Critical Infrastructure Attacks and Atrocities, and Advocate for Urgent, Broad IAMD Aid (Including Tactical Drone Defense Against COTS Drones and Counter-Critical Infrastructure Defense), and Counter Disinformation Targeting Polish-Ukrainian and German-Ukrainian Relations and Western Division; Continue to Signal Offensive Intent and Publicize Indigenous Long-Range Strike Capabilities; Address Internal Societal Impacts Transparently; Highlight Adaptive Civilian Resilience; Condemn IAEA Access Denial; Counter CSTO Exercise Narratives (including Nuclear Planning); Promote Military Fundraising; AMPLIFY RECONSTRUCTION NEEDS AND COUNTER EU INTEGRATION OBSTRUCTION; PUBLICIZE UAF GUR STRIKES IN CRIMEA; ADDRESS US DIPLOMATIC PRESSURE ON RF; COUNTER RF PSYOP ON UAF MOBILIZATION AND MISSILE LAUNCHES; COUNTER RF MORALE-BOOSTING IO; AMPLIFY GERMAN FINANCIAL/MILITARY SUPPORT AND CHINA-INDIA DIPLOMACY; EXPOSE EU FROZEN ASSETS NARRATIVE; EXPOSE RF INTERNAL SOCIAL/POLITICAL ISSUES:

   • ACTION: Immediately launch a comprehensive STRATCOM and PSYOP campaign, using verified imagery and UAF operational updates (including Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's report to President Zelenskyy), to highlight the intensity, coordinated, and explicitly critical infrastructure-targeting nature (energy, transport, ports, water, gas, and Kyiv/Dnipropetrovsk) of RF deep strikes (especially in Nizhyn/Chernihiv, Odesa, Chornomorsk, Illichivsk, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Sumy, Poltava, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kyiv/Dnipropetrovsk), and the documented damage to residential buildings and civilian casualties (e.g., Kyiv funerals, detailed Zaporizhzhia report, civilian fatality in Kherson, Kyiv dog story, Dnipro attacks). Explicitly expose RF's disinformation and historical revisionism (e.g., Zakharchenko commemoration, diplomatic spin, exaggerated battlefield claims like WarGonzo's Donetsk map, Redkodub claims, Dimitrov entry, Zarichne/Maliyivka advances, Siversk strikes, FPV control over Pokrovsk roads, Kursk NPP restoration, coal mine capture, "PU была" strike, "Who changes the world" narrative, CSTO exercises, including nuclear planning, RF claims of striking military cargo on civilian vessels in Illichivsk Fishing Port, RF framing of UAF missile launches as solely tied to Zelenskyy's statements, RF claims of 76% of Russians desiring peace, RF claims of social disorder in Mariupol, RF claims of Donbas liberation), directly counter RF claims of tactical battlefield successes (e.g., drone strike on UAF mortar crew, destroyed T-80 tank (with new video), FPV ambush, shooting down UAF drones, Novoselivka engagements, UAV destruction in Bryansk) with factual context (e.g., UAF 58th Brigade's 2S1 strike (with new video), "Flamingo" missile launches, STERNENKO's FPV strike on Lyman direction, UAF SOF Sumy counter-offensive, Dobropillya encirclement, "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" drone footage from Sumy, new UAF tactical success on Lyman direction, UAF GUR strikes on RF radar/air defense in Crimea, new UAF FPV strike on RF convoy, RF double-kill in Marfopil, new Supercam destruction, new FPV strike in Kharkiv Oblast, UAF AD in Kyiv Oblast), and aggressively highlight and verify alleged RF atrocities (e.g., "Mikhail 'Migel'" testimony, Mariupol allegations by BŪTUSOV ПЛЮС, civilian fatality in Kherson). Actively counter RF PSYOP attempting to discredit UAF mobilization (e.g., Kyiv mobilization video, Rivne Oblast funeral summons) or inflate UAF threat perceptions (e.g., "Azov" redeployment), and those attempting to link UAF defensive/offensive actions to "military dictators" or "new deep strikes" (e.g., Alex Parker Returns, WarGonzo's sarcastic "Flamingo" video). Critically, directly counter any RF narratives attempting to undermine Polish-Ukrainian and German-Ukrainian relations (e.g., refugee benefit claims, German militarization, Poles banned from Russia, ironic comments on Lithuanian borders) and amplify perceived Western divisions (e.g., Germany/Hungary reports, EU frozen assets, US Patriot sales, Baltic Sea exercises), and RF IO blaming Europe for the continuation of the conflict (e.g., TASS via Peskov), and RF IO criticizing France. Transparently address concerns raised by the "18-22" decree (e.g., civilian exodus) and the death of Andriy Parubiy, providing clear, factual information and demonstrating government support. Highlight environmental concerns related to the conflict. Transparently report on UAF defensive actions, including high numbers of UAV shoot-downs (126/142, and neutralization over Dnipro, and Supercam destruction, and AD in Kyiv Oblast, and FPV strike BDA in Kharkiv Oblast), successful PVO engagements, effective repair efforts (e.g., power/transport/water/gas restoration, effective warnings), and significant RF losses (e.g., "Анатолій Штефан 'Штірліц'" reports, 58th Brigade's 2S1 strike (with new video), Syrskyi's 290k RF losses metric, STERNENKO's FPV strike, BŪTUSOV ПЛЮС mine incident, Sumy counter-offensive, Dobropillya encirclement, Lyman direction tactical successes, UAF GUR strikes in Crimea, new UAF FPV strike on RF convoy, RF double-kill in Marfopil). Emphasize the urgent need for advanced IAMD systems and munitions from international partners, with a clear focus on defeating multi-wave, high-tempo drone (including deep strike and COTS tactical drones) and missile attacks across all threatened regions, and for counter-ISR/counter-kinetic drone technology at both the strategic and tactical levels, with a specific and urgent focus on protecting critical civilian energy, transport, water, and gas infrastructure, and for maritime mine countermeasures. If confirmed, publicly report the Simferopol airport strike and Tula explosives warehouse strike. Use strong counter-narratives against RF leadership and its allies where appropriate. Publicly affirm President Zelenskyy's statement on continuing long-range strikes into Russia, and provide specific details (if possible) on the targets and impact of active "Flamingo" missile use against RF territory, highlighting indigenous capability. Publicly highlight Ukrainian civilian resilience and adaptation, such as the development of "underground" schools in Zaporizhzhia, to counter RF's efforts to demoralize the population. Vigorously condemn RF's denial of IAEA access to the ZNPP dam by RF forces, emphasizing the risks to nuclear safety and international law. Counter RF narratives promoting CSTO exercises in Belarus, especially nuclear planning, by highlighting their destabilizing nature or lack of transparency. Continue to promote and amplify fundraising efforts for UAF needs, such as vehicle procurement for frontline units. Amplify the World Bank's estimate for post-war reconstruction, using it to underscore the scale of international financial support required. Directly address Hungary's continued obstruction to Ukraine's EU membership talks, using diplomatic channels and public statements to counter this narrative. Use strong, morale-boosting messages (e.g., "Death to Russians!"). Publicly acknowledge and amplify the US call for Russia to pursue peace or face sanctions, framing it as international pressure and support for Ukraine. Publicly amplify the statement by Polish PM Tusk that "no concessions to Putin will bring security to Europe," to reinforce international solidarity and reject RF demands. Counter RF morale-boosting IO, such as the "Tsar Leonid" analogy, with facts about RF losses and the human cost of the conflict. Publicly amplify Germany's commitment to financial and military support, clarifying its stance on troop deployment post-war, and highlight the diplomatic agreement between China and India to resume direct flights as a sign of normal international relations without endorsing the actors. Actively expose and leverage RF internal social and political issues (e.g., "defective" iPhones, Murmansk abortion denial, criminal cases against political prisoners) to counter narratives of RF internal stability. (PRIORITY: HIGH)
   • REASONING: RF's aggressive and diversified IO aims to demoralize Ukraine, dilute international support, and legitimize its actions. The explicit targeting of critical energy, transport, water, and now gas infrastructure by massed drones and civilian targeting (including Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk) is a particularly dangerous development that requires immediate exposure and a strong, factual counter-narrative, now including detailed exposure of alleged atrocities, occupation abuses, new military successes, and countering new PSYOP. The new RF IO explicitly targeting Polish-Ukrainian and German-Ukrainian relations, Western division, Zelenskyy's statements, and blaming Europe, and criticizing France, and new IO on German militarization and EU frozen assets, and explicit nuclear planning in CSTO exercises, and new RF internal social/political issues, requires a direct and strong counter. Coupled with direct calls for critical IAMD aid capable of defeating these evolving threats, and a clear signal of continued offensive intent and demonstrated indigenous capability, this is vital to maintain domestic morale, expose RF's actions, and ensure continued international assistance. Transparently addressing internal challenges (civilian exodus) and national mourning (Parubiy's death) maintains public trust. Highlighting civilian resilience provides a strong counter to RF's terror tactics. The denial of IAEA access to ZNPP dam by RF is a serious international issue that must be publicly condemned. Countering CSTO exercise narratives and promoting military fundraising are essential for maintaining Ukrainian strength and international support. Amplifying reconstruction needs and directly addressing EU integration challenges are crucial for long-term national planning and international support. Strong morale messages reinforce resolve. Publicizing UAF GUR strikes in Crimea and US diplomatic pressure on RF reinforces Ukrainian capabilities and international support. The strong statement from Polish PM Tusk and the clarified German position needs to be amplified to underscore international unity. Countering RF morale-boosting IO is crucial for maintaining informational superiority. Highlighting positive international diplomatic developments not involving Russia can also be a subtle counter-narrative.

5. MEDIUM: Enhance Tactical Counter-Drone Capabilities for Frontline Units and Target RF Volunteer Logistical Networks; Sustain UAF SOF Counter-Offensive Operations in Sumy Oblast; Exploit RF Encirclement; Monitor CSTO Exercises for Threat Generation (including Nuclear Planning); Continue Fundraising for Frontline Vehicles; ADDRESS LPR FUEL SHORTAGES; MONITOR MARIUPOL SOCIAL ORDER:

   • ACTION: Immediately prioritize the deployment of tactical counter-drone systems (e.g., jammers, short-range kinetic interceptors, specialized small arms for drone engagement) to frontline UAF units, with specific training focused on identifying and neutralizing COTS drones (like DJI Mavic 3T) and other tactical offensive drones used by RF ground units. Incorporate lessons learned from recent RF tactical drone strikes (e.g., against mortar crews, T-80 tanks (especially new video near Ivanivka), FPV ambushes, civilian fatality in Kherson, STERNENKO's FPV strike on Lyman direction, Siversk strikes, FPV control over Pokrovsk roads, coal mine capture, "PU была" strike, Illichivsk military cargo strike, Novoselivka engagements) into revised defensive tactics and training. Simultaneously, task HUMINT and OSINT assets to identify key nodes, individuals, and financial channels within RF's volunteer logistical networks and external UAV component supply chains to enable potential disruption. UAF SOF should continue to develop and execute counter-offensive operations in Sumy Oblast, leveraging their specialized skills to neutralize RF presence and gather intelligence, with adequate support and resources. UAF forces near Dobropillya should actively exploit the claimed encirclement of RF forces to achieve decisive tactical victory, including destroying or capturing isolated RF units. ISR assets should closely monitor the ongoing CSTO exercises in Belarus for any indicators of force generation or offensive intent that could pose a direct threat to Ukraine, especially given the explicit nuclear weapons planning. Support ongoing fundraising campaigns for essential vehicles for frontline units like the 153rd OMBR. Actively monitor the reported fuel shortages in LPR and, if possible, exploit this logistical weakness through information operations or targeted interdiction of fuel supply routes. Monitor the social order in Mariupol to assess RF's ability to maintain control and civilian stability in occupied territories. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM (TACTICAL - NEW RF TACTICAL DRONE STRIKES, COTS DRONE REQUEST, IDENTIFIED LOGISTICAL SUPPORT SYSTEM, CIVILIAN FATALITY BY DRONE, EXTERNAL UAV COMPONENT SUPPLY, UAF FPV STRIKE EVIDENCE, NEW CLAIMS OF INTEGRATED KINETIC STRIKES NEAR SIVERSK, NEW CLAIMS OF FPV CONTROL OVER POKROVSK ROADS, NEW RF CLAIMS OF COAL MINE CAPTURE, NEW CLAIMS OF STRIKES ON LAUNCH VEHICLES, NEW UAF SOF ACTIVITY IN SUMY, NEW UAF CLAIMS OF RF ENCIRCLEMENT, NEW CSTO EXERCISES IN BELARUS, INCLUDING NUCLEAR PLANNING, NEW FRONTLINE VEHICLE FUNDRAISING, NEW ILLICHIVSK MILITARY CARGO STRIKE CLAIM, NEW LPR FUEL SHORTAGES, NEW MARIUPOL SOCIAL ORDER REPORTS, NEW RF TACTICAL COUNTER-DRONE FOCUS, NEW UAF GUR STRIKES IN CRIMEA, NEW UAF FPV STRIKE ON RF CONVOY, NEW SUPERCAM DESTRUCTION, NEW UAF FPV STRIKE BDA IN KHARKIV OBLAST, NEW MULTI-WEAPON ATTACKS ON DNIPROPETROVSK.)
   • REASONING: The confirmed use and request for COTS drones by RF ground units, and the civilian fatality from a drone, highlight an immediate and persistent tactical threat. Equipping frontline units with effective counter-drone capabilities is crucial. Identifying and disrupting RF's volunteer logistical networks and external supply chains can further degrade their ability to sustain combat operations. The demonstrated effectiveness of UAF SOF in Sumy indicates an opportunity to maintain offensive pressure and deny RF the initiative in that sector. Exploiting the claimed RF encirclement near Dobropillya would provide a significant tactical and morale boost. Monitoring CSTO exercises, especially nuclear planning, is vital for national security. Continued fundraising for essential equipment like vehicles ensures sustained tactical readiness. LPR fuel shortages could be an exploitable weakness. Monitoring social order in Mariupol provides insight into RF control.

8. ANNEXES

• Annex A: Imagery Intelligence (IMINT) Summary - (Video of Odesa explosions/fires from previous report, "Colonelcassad" alleged UAF military equipment strike from previous report, "Сливочный каприз" alleged UAF equipment strike from previous report, Colonelcassad aviation strike footage, Операция Z anti-thermal cloak video, Colonelcassad military construction video, Colonelcassad "SMO zone" images, Colonelcassad tactical rifle image from previous messages, Colonelcassad RCBD school opening image from previous messages, Colonelcassad Donbas drone strike video, НгП раZVедка tactical team video from previous messages, Colonelcassad FPV drone strike on MaxxPro video from previous messages, Colonelcassad "НгПшники изловили хохла" video of captured UAF soldier, TASS video of Putin's arrival in China, Операция Z combat video from Zaporizhzhia, Colonelcassad Rostec fire drone video, Operatyvnyi ZSU video of downed "Gerbera" camera footage, Zaporizhzhia OVA photos of attack aftermath, Serhiy Lysak / Dnipropetrovsk OVA photos of building damage, Basurin O Glavnom "DAYinHISTORY" images, Colonelcassad BM-27 Uragan MLRS video, Два майора Odesa attack videos/photos, Олександр Вілкул Kryvyi Rih update photo, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА "Good morning" photo (likely propaganda), РБК-Україна Odesa firefighter video/photos, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА Kharkiv damage photos, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS Simferopol airport satellite imagery, Оперативний ЗСУ Simferopol airport satellite imagery, ТАСС FPV drone strike on UAF howitzer video, Fighterbomber C-130 cockpit video, Басурин о главном Zakharchenko commemoration video, Воин DV artillery strike video (Novoselivka-Sosnovka), ТАСС Putin's Aurus in China photo, Colonelcassad 360-degree video of Putin's arrival, РБК-Україна German female conscription photo, 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України memorial run photos, Операция Z Putin arrival video, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 minute of silence video, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) memorial photo, РБК-Україна "Рубіж" Brigade fundraising photo, Оперативний ЗСУ minute of silence photo, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine 126 UAVs neutralized graphic, Сили оборони Півдня України operational information graphic. UPDATED IMINT from previous SITREP: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video (soldier requesting drone), ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS photo (Odesa energy damage graphic), WarGonzo photo (Zakharchenko commemoration), Операция Z videos (Odesa explosions/fires, Dnipro explosion), Colonelcassad videos (Chornomorsk explosions/fires, Dnipro explosion, Odesa explosion), STERNENKO video (Putin arrival in China), Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 video (damaged residential building), ASTRA photos/video (Odesa firefighter, damaged truck, Odesa damage), ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 photo (RF losses graphic), Воин DV video (drone strike on UAF mortar crew/vehicle), Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими photos (children at music competition), Генеральний штаб ЗСУ photo (Gerasimov counter-propaganda graphic), РБК-Україна photo (Odesa DTEK damage graphic). NEW IMINT THIS REPORT: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video (Kyiv funeral, civilian vessel mine near Odesa, Balashikha fire video of building under construction, downed Russian Gerbera UAV camera video showing Chinese factory test, map showing Shenzhen, China, "Flamingo" missile launch video), ASTRA video (Kyiv funeral, Balashikha fire video of building under construction, "Flamingo" missile launch video), Colonelcassad video (SCO leaders arrival, civilian vessel mine near Odesa, Moscow volunteer supplies, Zaporizhzhia/Kherson supplies, Donbas/Konstantinovka requests, Xi-Modi meeting, Iranian President Pezeshkian arrival at SCO), Kotsnews video (Ivanivka tank destruction), Оперативний ЗСУ video (58th Brigade 2S1 destruction, Zelenskyy long-range strikes, "Flamingo" missile launch video), ТАСС video (Balashikha fire, Rubicon operators down UAF drones), STERNENKO video (Kyiv funeral, Kherson civilian fatality photos, FPV drone strike on Lyman direction), Олександр Вілкул video (remembrance ceremony), Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) video (remembrance ceremony), Alex Parker Returns photo (MiG-31K/Kinzhal loadout, "Dragon and Elephant" IO, Zelenskyy deep strike statement photo, "Flamingo" missile launch video), Операция Z video (Ukrainians in Poland protest, map showing advances under Maliyivka and Zarichne), 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 video (Zaporizhzhia attack consequences), MoD Russia photo (BARS-16 awards), Филолог в засаде video (RF reconnaissance thanking for Mavic 3T and NCSU), Сливочный каприз video (distant explosion in village-like setting), Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 map (satellite view with place names, related to Kryvyi Rih and Illichivsk), Николаевский Ванёк video ("Flamingo" missile launch). АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video (Smolensk educational facilities), АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА photo (Sumi Oblast map, "Resumption of fighting in Sumy Oblast"). NEW IMINT THIS REPORT (FURTHER ADDITIONS): Сливочный каприз photo (Konstantinovka - Rusin Yar, Krasnoarmiysk - Artemivka(Sofiyivka)), БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС photo (RF soldier on mine), WarGonzo photo (oil industry complex, Finnish Air Force flags), Басурин о главном video (SCO Media Center), ТАСС video (Siversk Akatsiya/UAV C2 destruction), Alex Parker Returns photo (78 IQ math), video (Putin-Xi handshake), STERNENKO photo (18-22 decree impact on civilians). NEW IMINT THIS REPORT (FURTHER ADDITIONS): Colonelcassad video (Russian military drone operation and strikes), ТАСС video (Putin at SCO reception, Putin and Xi handshake, Putin interacting with officials at SCO), Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 photo (Alexander Zakharchenko commemoration), Воин DV video (UAF T-80 tank destruction near Ivanivka), Fighterbomber video (RAZVEDOSAA and FIGHTERBOMBER commentary on France), ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 video (UAF 58th Brigade destroys SAU 2S1), ASTRA video (Putin's arrival at SCO, Putin and Xi meeting), БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video (UAF SOF counter-offensive in Sumy), Генеральний штаб ЗСУ photos (RHB reconnaissance in Chernobyl zone), Alex Parker Returns photo (Putin/leaders at SCO, critical caption), Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video (Ukrainian soldier requesting Mavic 3 drones), Zvиздец Мангусту video (UAF SOF vehicle fundraising). NEW IMINT THIS UPDATE: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 video (Flamingo missile launch), Alex Parker Returns video (capture of 'Pisciy' coal mine), Mash на Донбассе video (Zakharchenko memorial ceremony), Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video (drone footage of explosions, "PU была" claim), ТАСС video (Putin met with "Kalinka-Malinka" at SCO), БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video (drone footage of military vehicles/damaged vehicle), Оперативний ЗСУ video (Balashikha fire aftermath), ТАСС video (SCO palace security/logistics), ТАСС photo (Ritz-Carlton hotel, Putin's residence), Операция Z video (CSTO parade in Belarus), Операция Z photo (CSTO exercise "Strength in Unity" graphic), РБК-Україна photo (153 OMBR fundraising car). NEW IMINT THIS UPDATE (FURTHER ADDITIONS): Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition video (missile launch from ground-based platform, impact in distance, coastal area, sunrise), Николаевский Ванёк (no new IMINT, but warning of Shaheds), ТАСС photo (Putin meeting Pashinyan), STERNENKO video (UAF Signum unit, 53rd OMBr destroying enemy), Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 video (explosion and fire at night, 'ТИПИЧНАЯ ОДЕССА' watermark, possible military incident/airstrike in Illichivsk Fishing Port, Azerbaijani vessel claim), РБК-Україна video (Dmitry Peskov speaking, SCO context, criticizes European involvement), Игорь Артамонов video (Lipetsk Land forum, civilian, no military), «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» video (patriotic montage, military parades/jets, cultural elements), РБК-Україна video (forest fire, person in orange jacket, framing Balashikha fire as "Putin's palace" almost burning), MoD Russia video (RF reconnaissance engineer team leader 'Magarik' explaining drone neutralization tactics), ТАСС video (Russian delegation returning to residence at SCO), РБК-Україна video (GUR drone footage of strikes in Crimea, RT-70, GLONASS, S-400 radar), WarGonzo video (Flamingo missile launch at sunrise), Mash на Донбассе video (man with axe in Mariupol), Операция Z photo (summons at funeral in Rivne Oblast), Воин DV video (Novoselivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast engagements). NEW IMINT FOR THIS REPORT: РБК-Україна photo (OSINT analyst claiming 2 RF helicopters destroyed at Simferopol airport), Colonelcassad video (animated map of RF strikes 30-31 AUG), БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС photos (double-kill of RF brothers in Marfopil), ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video (FPV drone strike on RF military convoy), ASTRA video (dog Jessi after Kyiv attack), Fighterbomber video (pilot's halo from cockpit), STERNENKO video (destroyed Supercam reconnaissance UAV, B-2 Spirit surveillance footage from UAV), Colonelcassad video (Putin-Pashinyan meeting). NEW IMINT THIS UPDATE: Colonelcassad photo (39 Poles banned from entering RF for 5 years for unauthorized action), Два майора photo (Corsairs naval image), ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS video (Sumy region historical video), ТАСС photo (Karasin comment on Lithuania swamping border), РБК-Україна video (enemy UAV movement in Kyiv Oblast), Два майора video (CSTO nuclear planning statement), Kotsnews video (Russian offensive in Donbas, 80 settlements liberated), ASTRA photo (Russian stores selling iPhones without Rustore as defective), ТАСС photo (Kursk Kolobok statue), Оперативний ЗСУ video (FPV strike on RF equipment in Kharkiv Oblast), Два майора video (Zaporizhzhia front artillery strikes), 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) photo (aftermath of attack on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast).
• Annex B: Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) References - (Links to ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Военкор Котенок, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Сливочный каприз, Николаевский Ванёк, Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z, РБК-Україна, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, ASTRA, Deep State map reference in thermal footage from previous report, previous references in this report for KABs on Kharkiv and UAV in Chernihiv, НгП раZVедка, The Wall Street Journal, ASTRA's videos on Moscow detentions, ТАСС on Trump's executive order and sports convictions, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 alert from previous messages, ТАСС on Krasnoarmiysk troop movements, ТАСС on Rostov UAV, ТАСС on Xi-Lukashenko meeting, ТАСС on US counter-UAV group, РБК-Україна on ISW report, ТАСС on Volgograd airport, ТАСС on Volgograd UAV attack, ТАСС on FPV swarm tech, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 on power restoration, РБК-Україна on PVO in Zaporizhzhia, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on UAVs in Zaporizhzhia/Chernihiv, Operatyvnyi ZSU on downed "Gerbera" camera footage, ТАСС on Gaza humanitarian aid, Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 on casualties in Zaporizhzhia, ТАСС on Trump/NSC, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ on RF losses, Оперативний ЗСУ on RF losses, ТАСС on Sumy strikes, Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) on Dnipropetrovsk attacks, Басурин о главном on "DAYinHISTORY", ТАСС on 21 UAVs shot down, AV БогомаZ on Bryansk UAV, Два майора on Odesa strikes, РБК-Україна on RF losses, Олександр Вілкул on Kryvyi Rih, Оперативний ЗСУ on Odesa UAV attack, ТАСС on hotel registration, АSTRA on 21 UAVs, РБК-Україна on Odesa energy, STERNENKO on Odesa UAV, ТАСС on Scott Ritter, АSTRA on Kherson wounded, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS on ISW report, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА "Good morning" post, ТАСС on "Wheely" restrictions, ASTRA on Moscow singer detention, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS on Putin in China, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА on Kharkiv strikes, 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України on memorial run, ТАСС on holiday planning, ТАСС on FPV drone strike on howitzer, Colonelcassad on Estonian handover, Воин DV on Novoselivka-Sosnovka strikes, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 "Good morning" post, STERNENKO "Morning donation" post, ТАСС on Kazakhstan Russian language, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС on Solovyov's threats, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ "Tactical Analysis" boilerplate, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) memorial boilerplate, Сили оборони Півдня України boilerplate. UPDATED OSINT from previous SITREP: ASTRA Telegram channel (142 UAVs, Balashikha fire, Balashikha chemical plant, MCHS report on Balashikha), Военкор Котенок Telegram channel (Mikhail "Migel" testimony, Chornomorsk hits, FPV drone ambush), Рыбарь Telegram channel (review, asymmetric measures), ТАСС Telegram channel (Western brands, scholarships, car prices, Sochi airport delays, SCO media coverage, bloggers to Max, Manturov marketplace, Kimakovsky on Azov), Новости Москвы Telegram channel (traffic accidents - repeating TASS, debt collectors, Balashikha warehouse fire), БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС Telegram channel (RF soldier suicide/drone, Mariupol aggression), Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Telegram channel (Odesa UAV, missile danger in multiple oblasts), Colonelcassad Telegram channel (volunteer supplies/requests, Illichivsk strike, Xi-Modi meeting), РБК-Україна Telegram channel (Putin in China, Chornomorsk Mayor's statement, ISW energy strike assessment, Nizhyn critical infrastructure strike), Kotsnews Telegram channel (artillery strike, China summit/territory exchange), Fighterbomber Telegram channel (political officers), Операция Z Telegram channel (Lula BRICS summit, Kyiv "mobilization" video), Alex Parker Returns Telegram channel (defiant man, NATO/EU comment photo), Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 Telegram channel (Konstantinovka map), WarGonzo Telegram channel (Donetsk front map), Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" Telegram channel (RF losses), Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition Telegram channel (destroyed UAF tank near Ivanivka, Russian tank history), Старше Эдды Telegram channel (Redkodub aftermath, personnel movement), Народная милиция ДНР Telegram channel (33rd MSR destroying UAF logistics/EW), STERNENKO Telegram channel (Nizhyn critical infrastructure strike), Оперативний ЗСУ Telegram channel (Nizhyn critical infrastructure strike, ISW energy strike assessment). NEW OSINT THIS REPORT: ТАСС Telegram channel (Eric Trump, Alaska gas crisis, 39 Poles banned, Balashikha fire video, actor Golovin fines, Germany troops to Ukraine, MoD Russia port strike, MoD Russia UAF drones downed, Dimitrov entry, Russians opt-out mass calls, 5 alcohol poisoning deaths in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, Peskov on Europeans hindering peace, Siversk Akatsiya/UAV C2 destruction), ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS Telegram channel (Kyiv funeral, Balashikha fire video, unemployed Ukrainians in Germany, downed Russian Gerbera UAV camera footage, "Flamingo" missile launches actively targeting RF), Colonelcassad Telegram channel (SCO arrivals, Trump/Brennan/Comey, another dry cargo ship Odessa, Iranian President Pezeshkian at SCO), Старше Эдды Telegram channel (military deception critique, Gerasimov speech), Военкор Котенок Telegram channel (RQ-4B Global Hawk over Black Sea, Ivanivka tank video, civilian vessel mine near Odesa), Оперативний ЗСУ Telegram channel (58th Brigade 2S1 destruction, Zelenskyy long-range strikes, "Flamingo" missile launches actively targeting RF), РБК-Україна Telegram channel (civilian vessel mine near Odesa, Hungary EU veto, Modi-Xi Jinping meeting, Sumy kindergartens, Dobropillya salient status, Andriy Parubiy death/funeral, soil/environment destruction), Alex Parker Returns Telegram channel (Russian cosmonauts, MiG-31K/Kinzhal photo, "Dragon and Elephant" IO, Zelenskyy deep strike statement framing, "Flamingo" missile launch framing, Putin-Xi handshake, "78 IQ math"), Операция Z Telegram channel (Ukrainians in Poland protest, Polish radicals expelled from Russia, German benefits cut for Ukrainians, advances under Maliyivka and Zarichne), Новости Москвы Telegram channel (Wheely restrictions), MoD Russia Telegram channel (BARS-16 awards), Рыбарь Telegram channel (Gerasimov speech, Arctic threats), Zelenskiy / Official Telegram channel (Syrskyi report to Zelenskyy), Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА Telegram channel (Syrskyi report to Zelenskyy), Генеральний штаб ЗСУ Telegram channel (Syrskyi report to Zelenskyy), КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) Telegram channel (Syrskyi report to Zelenskyy), Филолог в засаде Telegram channel (RF reconnaissance thanking for Mavic 3T/NCSU, electric cart collection), Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 Telegram channel (Kryvyi Rih gas strike, Illichivsk railway strike, 97% wounded return), STERNENKO Telegram channel (Kherson civilian fatality, FPV drone strike on Lyman direction, 18-22 decree civilian exodus), DeepState Telegram channel (RF advances in Zarichne, Maliyivka), ASTRA Telegram channel (6 wounded in Kursk Oblast, 5 alcohol poisoning deaths in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, Tuva marathon pay disparity). NEW OSINT THIS REPORT (FURTHER ADDITIONS): Colonelcassad Telegram channel (RF MoD summary), ТАСС Telegram channel (Putin at SCO reception, Putin and Xi handshake), Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 Telegram channel (Alexander Zakharchenko commemoration, Ukrainian soldier requesting Mavic 3 drones), Операция Z Telegram channel (FPV drones control Pokrovsk roads), Воин DV Telegram channel (UAF T-80 tank destruction near Ivanivka), Fighterbomber Telegram channel (commentary on France), ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 Telegram channel (UAF 58th Brigade destroys SAU 2S1), ASTRA Telegram channel (Putin's arrival at SCO, Putin and Xi meeting), Оперативний ЗСУ Telegram channel (EU considering bypassing Hungary), РБК-Україна Telegram channel (US calls on Russia for peace/sanctions), БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС Telegram channel (UAF SOF counter-offensive in Sumy), Военкор Котенок Telegram channel (Kursk NPP capacity restoration), Генеральний штаб ЗСУ Telegram channel (RHB reconnaissance in Chernobyl zone), Zvиздец Мангусту Telegram channel (UAF SOF vehicle fundraising). NEW OSINT THIS UPDATE: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 Telegram channel (Flamingo missile launch, UAV counter-claims, Dobropillya encirclement claim, demilitarization questions), Kotsnews Telegram channel ("Who changes the world" graphic), Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition Telegram channel (drone footage, "PU была" claim), ТАСС Telegram channel (Merz statement on ground troops, gift-giving regulations), Colonelcassad Telegram channel (Lithuania swamps), Два майора Telegram channel (US Patriot sale to Denmark), Mash на Донбассе Telegram channel (Zakharchenko memorial), Рыбарь Telegram channel (Baltic Sea exercises), БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС Telegram channel (new drone video from Sumy), Оперативний ЗСУ Telegram channel (Balashikha fire aftermath), РБК-Україна Telegram channel (IAEA ZNPP dam, 153 OMBR fundraising), STERNENKO Telegram channel (IAEA ZNPP dam), Два майора Telegram channel (NS PRIDE mine incident), Операция Z Telegram channel (CSTO exercises in Belarus). NEW OSINT THIS UPDATE (FURTHER ADDITIONS): Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition Telegram channel (Zelenskyy new strikes announcement, missile launch video), Николаевский Ванёк Telegram channel (Shahed warning for Dnipro/Synelnykove), Оперативний ЗСУ Telegram channel (World Bank reconstruction estimate), ТАСС Telegram channel (Putin-Pashinyan meeting), DeepState Telegram channel (Hungary EU membership obstruction), STERNENKO Telegram channel (Dnipro Shahed attack confirmation, UAF Signum unit success Lyman direction, Death to Russians!), РБК-Україна Telegram channel (Dnipro explosion, Peskov "nonsense" statement, Balashikha "Putin's palace" fire), ASTRA Telegram channel (Poles banned from Russia), Генеральний штаб ЗСУ Telegram channel (16:00 operational info), 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 Telegram channel (Zaporizhzhia Front weekly summary), Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 Telegram channel (Illichivsk military cargo strike claim), Игорь Артамонов Telegram channel (Lipetsk civilian development), «Триколор» 🇷🇺 СпН «Ахмат» video (patriotic montage), ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS Telegram channel (76% Russians favor peace), MoD Russia Telegram channel (RF reconnaissance engineer team video), ТАСС Telegram channel (Russian delegation returning to residence at SCO, Putin meeting Patrushev), ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS Telegram channel (US calls on Russia for peace/sanctions, Berlin volunteer report on Russian offensive), РБК-Україна Telegram channel (GUR drone strikes in Crimea), WarGonzo Telegram channel (Flamingo missile launch), Mash на Донбассе Telegram channel (man with axe in Mariupol, LPR fuel shortages), Операция Z Telegram channel (summons at funeral in Rivne Oblast, Воин DV Telegram channel (Novoselivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast engagements). NEW OSINT FOR THIS REPORT: РБК-Україна Telegram channel (Tusk on no concessions to Putin), Старше Эдды Telegram channel ("Царь Леонид - 'Освободитель'"), БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС Telegram channel (double-kill of RF brothers in Marfopil), ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS Telegram channel (Ivan Franko Group FPV drone strike on RF convoy), ASTRA Telegram channel (dog Jessi after Kyiv attack), Операция Z Telegram channel (Putin-Xi discussions on Moscow-Washington contacts), ТАСС Telegram channel (Peskov hopes Putin-Aliyev meet, Putin agreed additional bilateral meetings), Воин DV Telegram channel (German militarization), Операция Z Telegram channel (EU frozen assets), Басурин о главном Telegram channel ("ПЛЮЮЩИЙ В МОГИЛУ"), РБК-Україна Telegram channel (China-India direct flights), ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS Telegram channel (Germany not sending troops post-war), Север.Реалии Telegram channel (critical commentary on Russia). NEW OSINT THIS UPDATE: Colonelcassad Telegram channel (39 Poles banned from entering RF for 5 years for unauthorized action in Mednoye memorial complex near Tver), Два майора Telegram channel (Corsairs - symbolic naval power IO), ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS Telegram channel (Sumy region historical video about saltpeter production), ТАСС Telegram channel (Karasin made an ironic comment about Lithuanian officials' initiative to re-swamp borders with Belarus), РБК-Україна Telegram channel (enemy UAV movement in Kyiv Oblast, UAF AD working), Два майора Telegram channel (CSTO exercises will practice planning the use of nuclear weapons, stated by Belarusian General Staff Head Muraveyko), Kotsnews Telegram channel (Russian offensive in Donbas, over 80 settlements liberated in summer months), ASTRA Telegram channel (Russian stores selling iPhones without Rustore as "defective"), ТАСС Telegram channel (Murmansk Health Ministry denied media reports about abortion ban), ASTRA Telegram channel (third criminal case against political prisoner Maria Ponomarenko), AV БогомаZ Telegram channel (RF AD destroyed fixed-wing UAV over Bryansk Oblast).
• Annex C: SIGINT and EW Summary - (UAF Air Force alerts on UAV threats for Odesa, Chornomorsk, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Николаевский Ванёк reporting on drone waves, previous alerts for Chernihiv UAV, Kharkiv KABs, Zaporizhzhia KABs, potential SIGINT on C2 of kinetic drones in Donbas, SIGINT on FPV drone C2 in Donbas, potential SIGINT on RF PVO activity in Rostov Oblast, SIGINT on FPV drone swarm control, SIGINT on Volgograd UAV attack, UAF Air Force alerts on UAV/KABs/artillery in Dnipropetrovsk, SIGINT on "Gerbera" drone's internal data link, potential SIGINT on RF claims of strikes in Sumy Oblast, SIGINT on widespread RF PVO activity in multiple regions, potential SIGINT on Odesa deep strike drones, potential SIGINT on BM-27 Uragan C2 and drone BDA integration, potential SIGINT on FPV drone C2 and targeting of UAF howitzers near Konstantinovka, potential SIGINT from Simferopol airport strike BDA, SIGINT related to UAF Air Force claim of 126 UAV neutralizations, potential SIGINT on artillery C2 in Novoselivka-Sosnovka area. UPDATED SIGINT from previous SITREP: UAF Air Force alerts on missile danger in Sumy/Poltava, SIGINT on RF deep strike drones over Odesa/Chornomorsk (e.g., "Geraniums"), SIGINT related to RF tactical drone strike on UAF mortar crew/vehicle, SIGINT related to RF ground unit COTS drone operations/requests. NEW SIGINT: SIGINT related to RQ-4B Global Hawk operation over Black Sea, SIGINT related to UAF 58th Brigade's 2S1 destruction, potential SIGINT related to Black Sea mine incident, SIGINT related to RF claims of shooting down UAF drones, SIGINT related to deep strike on Dnipro, SIGINT on UAV in Black Sea towards Odesa, potential SIGINT related to Balashikha fire, SIGINT on Nizhyn critical infrastructure strike, SIGINT on missile danger in Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk Oblasts. NEW SIGINT THIS REPORT: SIGINT related to UAF "Flamingo" missile launches, potential SIGINT related to Kryvyi Rih gas infrastructure strike, potential SIGINT related to civilian fatality in Kherson by drone, potential SIGINT related to Ukrainian attack in Kursk Oblast, potential SIGINT related to STERNENKO's FPV strike on Lyman direction, potential SIGINT related to Siversk Akatsiya/UAV C2 destruction, potential SIGINT related to civilian exodus post "18-22" decree, potential SIGINT related to Andriy Parubiy's death. NEW SIGINT THIS REPORT (FURTHER ADDITIONS): Potential SIGINT related to FPV drones controlling Pokrovsk roads, potential SIGINT related to UAF SOF counter-offensive in Sumy, potential SIGINT related to RHB reconnaissance in Chernobyl zone, potential SIGINT related to Kursk NPP capacity restoration, potential SIGINT related to French involvement in conflict. NEW SIGINT THIS UPDATE: Potential SIGINT related to capture of 'Pisciy' coal mine, potential SIGINT related to "PU была" strike, potential SIGINT related to Dobropillya encirclement, SIGINT related to new UAF Air Force warning, potential SIGINT related to IAEA access denial at ZNPP, potential SIGINT related to CSTO exercises in Belarus. NEW SIGINT THIS UPDATE (FURTHER ADDITIONS): SIGINT related to Shahed drones approaching/attacking Dnipro/Synelnykove, potential SIGINT related to Illichivsk military cargo strike, potential SIGINT related to Putin-Pashinyan meeting, potential SIGINT related to LPR fuel shortages, potential SIGINT related to RF reconnaissance engineer team communications regarding drone neutralization tactics, potential SIGINT related to UAF GUR strikes on RF radar/air defense in Crimea, potential SIGINT related to Putin meeting Patrushev, potential SIGINT related to UAF GUR drone strikes in Crimea. NEW SIGINT FOR THIS REPORT: SIGINT related to new drone activity (Shaheds) in Chernihiv Oblast towards Kyiv, potential SIGINT related to UAF "Ivan Franko Group" FPV drone strike on RF convoy, potential SIGINT related to Putin-Xi discussions on Moscow-Washington contacts, potential SIGINT related to Putin-Aliyev meeting, potential SIGINT related to additional bilateral meetings at SCO, SIGINT related to destruction of RF Supercam reconnaissance UAV, potential SIGINT related to Germany not sending troops post-war and other EU/international discussions. NEW SIGINT THIS UPDATE: Potential SIGINT related to RF internal security measures regarding foreign nationals (Poles), potential SIGINT related to CSTO nuclear weapons planning, potential SIGINT related to RF claims of Donbas liberation, potential SIGINT related to UAF FPV strike BDA in Kharkiv Oblast, potential SIGINT related to RF UAV destruction in Bryansk Oblast, SIGINT related to UAF AD working in Kyiv Oblast.