Archived operational intelligence briefing
TIME: 291333Z AUG 25
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: The Russian Federation (RF) continues its multi-domain offensive, with persistent ground pressure on the Eastern Front, particularly the Pokrovsk direction, which President Zelenskyy now identifies as the most serious, with RF accumulating up to 100,000 personnel. RF claims recent advances in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, and the liberation of six settlements in the past week, including the alleged cutting of the Dobropillya-Kramatorsk supply route. Deep strike operations against Ukrainian targets continue, with RF claiming the destruction of a UAF "Neptune" missile system in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (confirmed by new video from Операция Z). UAF continues its deep strike operations, reportedly hitting another RF oil product facility in Bryansk Oblast and successfully targeting an RF S-400 radar system in Crimea. RF continues to focus on information operations exploiting internal Ukrainian vulnerabilities (mobilization, economic hardship). Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) General Staff reports clashes across multiple directions including Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, and Kherson. UAF reports RF reconnaissance UAVs active in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia, potentially acting as spotters for strikes. Mash on Donbas reports a residential building in Mariupol was destroyed after a night attack by UAF. RF continues to push for demilitarization of the Ukraine-Russia border zone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: RF channels are distributing thermal footage of what appears to be a 3rd Shock Army artillery barrage, showing multiple impacts on ground targets. Fighterbomber also released video of an LMUR (light multi-purpose guided missile) strike on a UAV control point, showing significant destruction in a residential area. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: RF claims to have destroyed UAF 3rd Army Corps units on the Krasnolymansk direction (Старше Эдды). (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
Central/Northern Ukraine:
RF Internal: Persistent oil refinery fires (Kuybyshevsky), a large industrial fire in Rostov, and the UAF drone attack in Orel (now four injured) highlight continued vulnerabilities to deep strikes. Forest fire in Gelendzhik has grown to 41.5 hectares. RF internal security measures remain active, including detentions of musicians for "violating silence" and addressing financial fraud. TASS reports the death of composer Rodion Shchedrin. TASS reports the first imported case of Chikungunya fever in RF. A "South Russian tarantula" is increasingly appearing in Moscow, a minor environmental/psychological factor. TASS reports new commemorative coins will be issued on September 1st. Izevsk airport to be named after Kalashnikov. TASS reports on limitations for foreign agents starting September. TASS reports on gradual recovery of the Russian automotive market. STERNENKO reports queues at gas stations in Khabarovsk Krai due to gasoline deficit. TASS reports the Central Bank will lower its key rate by 100 or 200 basis points on September 12th, indicating economic adjustments. ASTRA reports healthcare workers in Dagestan complaining about regular electricity outages paralyzing their polyclinic's work, which highlights internal infrastructure challenges and potential social unrest. TASS reports July 2025 was the third warmest on record. Alex Parker Returns reports on the detention of the Armenian consul in Austria for alleged espionage on behalf of Azerbaijan, a development in regional intelligence. Север.Реалии reports a painter from Cherepovets faces 4 years in prison for comments calling for executions of officials. Север.Реалии reports Dmitry Orlov was sentenced to three years imprisonment. TASS reports that Putin has transferred assets of Air Liquide in Russia under the temporary management of "M-Logistika." TASS reports temperature across Russia will be above normal for the next 10 days. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports that places have run out at the military cemetery in Chelyabinsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for most, LOW CONFIDENCE for tarantula's military impact) NEW: TASS reports that the case of writer Dmitry Bykov (labeled as a foreign agent in RF) for alleged fakes about RF Armed Forces and evading foreign agent duties has been sent to court, indicating continued internal crackdowns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: AV БогомаZ posts images focusing on civilian industrial production and social welfare projects in Bryansk Oblast, likely aimed at demonstrating stability and development in a border region. These include textile production, a machine tool factory ("Alexander"), a sports complex ("Olymp"), and a school museum. (HIGH CONFIDENCE - for the content of the images, LOW CONFIDENCE - for direct military relevance beyond propaganda)
Naval Operations (Sea of Azov/Black Sea/Crimea): The GUR strike on a Project 21631 "Buyan-M" class missile corvette in the Sea of Azov damaged its radar system. RF continues to push the narrative of a USV sinking a Ukrainian reconnaissance vessel "Simferopol." "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports NATO reconnaissance along the Black Sea border, with video of a US Navy P-8A Poseidon. GUR has successfully struck an RF S-400 radar complex (91N6E) in Crimea. РБК-Україна reports a second UAF sailor has died from the recent RF strike on a UAF naval vessel. ASTRA confirms the death of a second UAF sailor. ("Два майора" posts a video labeled "Odesa" showing military personnel entering a secured gate with a timestamp of 26 AUG 25. This could imply RF activity or intelligence collection related to Ukrainian port infrastructure.) Mash on Donbas reports a residential three-story building was destroyed after a night attack by UAF on Mariupol. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Eastern Front (Donetsk/Kharkiv): RF claims pressure on UAF in Konstantinovka, DNR, from multiple directions, and the "clearing" of the southwestern part of Chasiv Yar, DPR. Colonelcassad reports FAB strikes on Ukrainian positions in Krasnoyarsk. RF MoD released footage claiming the "liberation" of Pervomaisk, DPR. Kotsnews provides video footage of the "capture of Pervomaisk," showing widespread destruction. RF military expert Marochko claims significant NATO small arms and grenade launchers were seized by RF forces in western LNR. TASS reports RF claims that UAF is deploying special engineering equipment, including bulldozers, to the Kharkiv direction for long-term defense due to personnel shortages. "Два майора" reports a summary for 29 AUG 25, suggesting ongoing combat operations across fronts. Colonelcassad releases video of "combat work" by scouts from RF's 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade targeting UAF armored vehicles in the South Donetsk direction. TASS cites military expert Andrey Marochko claiming Kyiv has not evacuated the bodies of fallen UAF soldiers near Kupyansk and Kreminna for months. BУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports a Ukrainian soldier from the 3rd battalion, 111th TRO brigade, Artyom Smily, successfully engaged and blew up Russian occupiers' positions with an anti-tank mine near Konstantinovka, Donetsk Oblast. "Zvиздец Мангусту" claims UAF success in repelling RF attacks, specifically retaking Zelenyi Hai and ejecting RF from Tolstoy, and liquidating several RF assault groups in Voronoe (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). UAF reports RF attacks on 5 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast. "Операция Z" claims Russian offensive is breaking the front, with UAF surrendering positions in panic, citing FT. UAF Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast and Suminshchyna. "Воин DV" claims operators of RF's 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, 35th Army, "Vostok" Group, used FPV drones to destroy a UAF platoon in under an hour on the Zaporizhzhia direction, supported by thermal imagery. RF MoD claims "Grad" MLRS crew delivered a powerful strike at AFU positions in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Colonelcassad shows RF 16th Spetsnaz Brigade operating in Kupyansk. TASS reports RF destroyed an "Azov" "strike fist" near Karpivka, Serednye, Shandryholove, and Derilove in the Krasnolymanske direction. Народная милиция ДНР posts video claiming destruction of a UAF UAV control point near Kleban-Byk. Оперативний ЗСУ shows video of an FPV drone strike on Russian soldiers hiding in trees, labeled as a "new tactic" to evade drones. RF TASS claims artillery and UAVs of "Southern" group destroyed a UAF crossing near Dronovka, DNR. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims RF forces destroyed an "Azov assault fist" on the Krasnolymansk direction. UAF Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Kharkivshchyna. Старше Эдды claims UAF is attacking on the Krasnolymansk direction, following Trump's advice. TASS reports RF forces have cut the Dobropillya-Kramatorsk road, used for UAF supply. Liveuamap Source, citing UAF General Staff, reports clashes yesterday near Zapadne, Synkivka, Holubivka, Zahryzove (Kupyansk direction); Hrekivka, Novomykhaylivka, Karpivka, Zelena Dolyna, Kolodyazi, Torske and towards Yampil, Dronivka, Serebryanka (Lyman direction); Hryhorivka, Vyyimka, Pereyizne (Siversk direction); Stupochky (Kramatorsk direction); Scherbynivka, Toretsk, Rusyn Yar (Toretsk direction); Poltavka, Volodymyrivka, Novoekonomichne, Rodynske, Lysivka, Sukhyy Yar, Dachenske, Zvirove, Udachne, Horikhove, Novoukrayinka (Pokrovsk direction); Voskresenka, Maliyivka, Zelenyy Hay, Piddubne, Oleksandrohrad, Zaporizhzhia (Novopavlivka direction). Сливочный каприз provides video footage of a Ukrainian drone destroying a Russian 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer in a wooded area near Kozacha Lopan - Turovo. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) shares a map claiming RF advances in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. TASS, citing the RF MoD, claims units of the "Center" group are continuing offensive actions in DNR and Dnipropetropetrovsk Oblast. TASS, citing the RF MoD, claims RF forces have liberated six settlements in the zone of the special operation over the past week. "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts drone footage showing significant destruction in a settlement (labeled as Pervomaisk) with a Russian flag, claiming advances in DNR. "Воин DV" posts drone footage showing an armored vehicle (implied UAF) being engaged and destroyed by fire with visible personnel around it, labeled "Self-destruction in Azov style." Colonelcassad posts a video claiming 8 units of equipment and up to 50 personnel of the "Azov" unit were destroyed in the Krasnolymansk direction as a result of repelling UAF counterattacks. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video showing two RF soldiers hiding in a tree being liquidated by FPV drones from the 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade in the Lyman direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that DeepState confirms RF advances near three settlements in Donetsk Oblast. Kotsnews reports RF forces have repelled UAF attacks on the Pokrovskoye (Krasnoarmeyskoye) direction, with an FPV drone destroying a UAF T-64 tank on a former UAF repair base. Colonelcassad posts a video claiming Russian soldiers with a Russian flag in Pervoe Maya (DNR), confirming RF presence in a liberated settlement. Воин DV posts video showing daily FAB strikes on UAF positions continuing. Операция Z reports "Otvazhny" forces creating a "fiery carnival" for UAF in Pokrovsk. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims a high-ranking Estonian special forces officer was liquidated by RF in Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad reports that an RF strike in Konstantinovka destroyed a large Ukrainian humanitarian aid warehouse, containing "several tens of tons" of various goods, including WHOLE MILK POWDER and UNICEF-marked boxes. Local "svidomye" (pro-Ukrainian individuals) are reportedly blaming the local "gauleiter" (appointed leader) and "occupational authorities" for not distributing the aid in time. TASS reports RF forces destroyed a temporary deployment point and a robotic platform near Konstantinovka, with thermal video footage showing a drone strike on a target. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy identifies the Pokrovsk direction as the "most serious" on the front, with RF accumulating up to 100,000 personnel. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts video of combat for Zaporizhzhia in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a Ukrainian soldier discussing reconnaissance and tactics, and another Russian soldier discussing captured equipment from an encirclement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports "UAF reinforcement on Tetkino direction," which is a border area near Sumy Oblast. The image shows a defensive line with a military vehicle, suggesting UAF preparedness. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) NEW: Старше Эдды posts video claiming "defeat of units of the 3rd Army Corps of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Krasnolymansk direction," showing armored vehicles, destruction, and both Ukrainian and Russian flags, indicating a contested area. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
Southern Front (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson): UAF reports a UAV heading towards Dnipro/Samar. RF claims that "Dnepr group" machine gunners destroyed over 30 UAF "Baba Yaga" drones in Kherson Oblast, indicating active counter-drone operations. A one-year-old child, a 70-year-old male, a 59-year-old male, and a 73-year-old female were injured as a result of a Russian attack on the Zaporizhzhia district. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration observes a daily moment of silence for fallen defenders. UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in the Zaporizhzhia area. WarGonzo reports a frontline summary for the Zaporizhzhia front, indicating ongoing combat. "Воин DV" claims operators of RF's 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, 35th Army, "Vostok" Group, used FPV drones to destroy a UAF platoon in under an hour on the Zaporizhzhia direction, supported by thermal imagery. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 3 women were injured in an enemy attack on Zaporizhzhia district. UAF General Staff reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Bilohirya of Zaporizhzhia region and Kozatske of Kherson region. UAF General Staff reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 3 Russian army assaults in the Kherson direction. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video commemorating fallen defenders. UAF reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs active in Zaporizhzhia, with assets engaged for interception. TASS posts a video claiming an RF "Iskander" missile system destroyed a UAF "Neptune" complex in Lyubytske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Военкор Котенок also posts a video claiming the defeat of a UAF "Neptune" missile complex in Lyubytske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ASTRA reports 2 people were injured in RF attacks on Kherson Oblast. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports 40 suspicions for state treason and collaborationism in Kherson Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: STERNENKO posts video captioned "Total Russocutting continues on Zaporizhzhia direction!", with footage of drone strikes on what appear to be RF vehicles and personnel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
RF UAV Reconnaissance/Strike Identification:
RF Civilian Reserve Formations: AV БогомаZ posts photo messages commemorating the one-year anniversary of the formation of BARS (Combat Army Reserve of the Country) detachments in Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod Oblasts by order of President Putin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
RF:
Naval Forces: RF naval forces operate in the Sea of Azov/Black Sea, using USVs. ("Два майора" posts a video labeled "Odesa" showing military personnel entering a secured gate, potentially indicating RF intelligence collection or activity related to Ukrainian port infrastructure.) Mash on Donbas reports destruction of a residential building in Mariupol after a UAF night attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Internal Security/Air Defense: Active air defense against UAF deep strikes. RF internal security is engaged in counter-sabotage, anti-fraud measures, and cultural control (St. Petersburg musicians). FSB arrests and sentencing for "terrorism" in Chita highlights ongoing RF internal security operations. FSB has detained two residents of Yaroslavl Oblast on suspicion of treason (Podduбный |Z|О|V| edition). TASS reports that a high-speed train for the future High-Speed Mainline (HSM) will be controlled by AI, a technological projection. TASS reports a proposal to introduce a fee for truck travel on regional roads, a potential logistical/economic measure. TASS reports that Moscow condemns attempts by Britain, France, and Germany to renew UN sanctions against Iran, indicating RF's diplomatic stance. TASS reports a new political party forming in Armenia for 2026 elections, showing RF interest in regional politics. ТАСС reports on the release of commemorative coins. TASS reports on limitations for "foreign agents" starting September. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports FSB detained two residents of Yaroslavl Oblast for transferring information about critical infrastructure to Ukraine. Операция Z posts video of FSB detention in Yaroslavl Oblast, featuring an alleged Ukrainian agent. Izevsk airport will be named after Kalashnikov. TASS reports on the gradual recovery of the Russian automotive market. Colonelcassad posts a video of FSB detaining two Russians in Yaroslavl Oblast for transmitting information about critical infrastructure to Ukrainian special services. The video shows a man (Nikolai, from Ukraine) admitting to being contacted through Telegram and asked to provide information on Western weapons and signals intelligence for cryptocurrency. This confirms ongoing RF counter-espionage efforts and alleged Ukrainian intelligence gathering. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports five individuals in Transbaikalia were sentenced to up to 13 years for terrorism and sabotage. Alex Parker Returns reports on the detention of the Armenian consul in Austria for alleged espionage on behalf of Azerbaijan, a regional intelligence development. TASS reports that video messages are now available on the Max platform. Новости Москвы and Alex Parker Returns report on statements by Deputy Gorelkin that only MAX and Telegram will remain as messengers in Russia, with MAX taking a leading position, indicating ongoing state control over digital communication. Kadyrov_95 reports visits by high-ranking МВД officials to checkpoints in the "South" grouping, indicating security measures and internal control. Colonelcassad reports on Vologda Governor Filimonov's actions related to monuments and business closures, indicating local governance and control. "Два майора" cites First Deputy Head of the Duma Committee on Information Policy, Gorelkin, stating that Telegram will not be blocked in Russia. This directly contradicts previous reports on messenger consolidation and suggests a clarification or shift in RF internal information control policy. Alex Parker Returns posts a photo of "Colonel SVR Igor Chernov," claiming he is "NATO's number one threat" and responsible for "dozens of failed Pentagon operations," a clear RF propaganda piece to boost SVR image. TASS posts about Russian football players being included in the national team for upcoming friendly matches, which is irrelevant to military intelligence. TASS reports that Putin has transferred assets of Air Liquide in Russia under the temporary management of "M-Logistika." TASS reports that Putin discussed "priority steps in relations with CIS countries" with the Security Council, with Lavrov as the main speaker. This indicates continued RF diplomatic and political engagement with its near abroad. Рыбарь posts on "Фильтр на школьном пороге" (Filter at the school threshold), likely related to security measures or ideological control in schools, an ongoing RF internal control measure. Игорь Артамонов (Lipetsk Governor) posts photos from a meeting on road accident rates, indicating a focus on internal public safety and governance. Север.Реалии reports that the Russian Prosecutor General's Office demanded that the largest music publishing house "Muzyka" be transferred to state ownership, indicating increased state control over cultural assets. Colonelcassad reports that the Russian government has approved rules for marking calls from companies and individual entrepreneurs. This is an internal control measure. AV БогомаZ posts photo messages commemorating the one-year anniversary of the formation of BARS (Combat Army Reserve of the Country) detachments in Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod Oblasts by order of President Putin. TASS reports that passenger boarding on trains using biometrics will start after September 1st, a new internal security/convenience measure for transportation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: TASS reports that the case of writer Dmitry Bykov (labeled as a foreign agent in RF) for alleged fakes about RF Armed Forces and evading foreign agent duties has been sent to court, indicating continued internal crackdowns. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: AV БогомаZ posts photos of a working trip to Dyatkovo district, showing local officials inspecting a repaired school, a memorial, a sports field, and other civilian infrastructure projects. This indicates ongoing local governance and social welfare efforts in RF border regions. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: TASS reports the Ministry of Internal Affairs proposes to reduce the fine payment period for foreign-registered vehicles from 60 days to 24 hours. This is a new internal control and revenue generation measure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Information Warfare: Actively propagating claims via TASS (e.g., SBU defector, Colombian mercenaries, UAF bodies unevacuated near Kupyansk/Kreminna) to discredit UAF and influence international perception. TASS reports a Danish mercenary, Annabel Jørgensen, sentenced to 26 years in absentia, has appealed the verdict, likely used for propaganda purposes. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reinforces claims of UAF torture of RF prisoners, citing personal experience. "Операция Z" quotes Le Point stating Trump sees Ukraine as an obstacle to normal relations with Russia, used to influence international perception. TASS cites Spanish mercenary Juan Astray claiming UAF foreign legion recruits do not undergo blood tests, attempting to discredit UAF recruitment standards. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" publishes images and video implying NATO reconnaissance in the Black Sea. TASS reports that the upcoming visit of Putin to China will be an important milestone for bilateral relations and a manifesto for peace. Операция Z posts video alleging Ukrainian mobilization is separating single fathers from children, placing children in orphanages, and shows young Ukrainians claiming they will leave the country once borders open, to demoralize and highlight social issues. TASS broadcasts an interview with Elena Malysheva, head of the National Center for Historical Memory, condemning the relocation of Soviet war memorials in Lviv, using historical revisionism as an information weapon. Старше Эдды claims UAF is attacking on the Krasnolymansk direction, following Trump's advice. TASS reports RF forces have cut the Dobropillya-Kramatorsk road, used for UAF supply. ASTRA reports 2 additional aerial bombs dropped by RF bombers on Belgorod Oblast and "DNR," which could be used to justify RF actions. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition amplifies claims of Ukrainian "manhunters" breaking up families due to forced mobilization. Colonelcassad conducts an interview with a captured UAF soldier, probing his knowledge of Ukrainian nationalist figures. TASS posts a briefing summary from the RF MoD, highlighting seven group strikes with precision weapons and UAVs from 23-29 AUG, and the "liberation" of six settlements, clearly aimed at showcasing RF military effectiveness. "Два майора" also highlights the RF MoD briefing as demonstrating "unyielding will." TASS posts a video claiming an RF "Iskander" missile system destroyed a UAF "Neptune" complex. WarGonzo states that the EU would commit suicide by accepting Ukraine. TASS claims that security guarantees for Kyiv should be a result, not a condition, of negotiations. Военкор Котенок continues to discuss the topic of Western troops entering Ukraine. MoD Russia provides a summary of its special military operation from August 23-29, confirming strikes on industrial and military targets. Colonelcassad also highlights these strikes. TASS reports Peskov states Putin does not rule out a meeting with Zelenskyy but it must be well-prepared. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reiterates that all RF positions on conflict resolution were conveyed to Kyiv in writing. TASS features Maria Zakharova claiming Zelenskyy sabotages the peace process. Janus Putkonen reports RF's demand for demilitarization of the Ukraine-Russia border zone. Colonelcassad posts video of RF soldiers with a Russian flag in Pervoe Maya (DNR), reinforcing territorial claims. Alex Parker Returns posts images and video of an engine fire and explosions on a military aircraft in Alaska, with a caption implying "bad luck" or "jinxed" by US strength displays, clearly a propaganda effort to mock US military. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a video with a graphic, then drone footage, titled "Death to the American old woman!" with a primate inset, indicating highly aggressive and dehumanizing propaganda against a Western target. Стрелков Игорь Иванович claims UAF attacked the "Druzhba" oil pipeline again, causing a "serious diplomatic scandal," clearly an information operation to portray UAF as aggressive and reckless. TASS reports Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó states Hungary expects Ukraine to undertake "even more serious political provocations" to drag neighboring countries into the war, highlighting RF's diplomatic pressure and narrative control. TASS posts Maria Zakharova's statement that denunciation of the European Convention against Torture will not harm RF citizens, likely an attempt to downplay human rights concerns. Colonelcassad discusses Kremlin's stance on a potential meeting with Zelenskyy and "European narratives," indicating continued diplomatic information control. Janus Putkonen (a pro-RF Finnish source) claims that the Kyiv government is letting young men escape Ukraine to prevent them from participating in anti-government riots or a coup, which he expects to be incited when "shit hits the fan" for Zelenskyy's administration. This is a clear RF-aligned information operation targeting Ukrainian internal stability and public trust. "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts a video alleging that a memorial cemetery has been opened in Kyiv where UAF soldiers are buried without names to avoid paying money to relatives. This is a highly inflammatory and likely false RF propaganda claim designed to undermine UAF morale and public trust. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts screenshots of RF social media reactions to the Kyiv missile/drone attack, stating "Russian sadists rejoice" over the 22 fatalities (including 4 children). This highlights RF information environment's cruelty and UAF's counter-propaganda efforts. TASS reports that Vance (J.D. Vance, US Senator) stated he is ready to become president "if a tragedy happens to Trump." This is a political statement within the US and is likely being amplified by TASS for its potential to sow political discord in a key Western ally. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares an interview with Vasyliy Prozorov, a former SBU employee, who discusses SBU counterintelligence officers having "Russophobic views" and being trained by US/UK specialists near Kyiv. This is a clear RF information operation aimed at discrediting SBU and alleging foreign influence. "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) features Maria Zakharova stating that Zelenskyy is "sabotaging the peace negotiation process," while outlining RF conditions for demilitarization, denazification, non-bloc/nuclear-free status, recognition of "territorial realities," and protection of the Russian-speaking population. This is a direct RF diplomatic and information warfare effort to shift blame and assert its demands. Janus Putkonen reiterates claims about "Andromeda" and "drunk Ukrainian divers," likely a reference to previous RF propaganda claims, showing a consistent narrative. Kadyrov_95 posts a video claiming Akhmat Spetsnaz detected and destroyed a "Baba Yaga" heavy quadcopter trying to illegally cross the border in the Kozacha Lopan area (Kharkiv direction). This aims to highlight RF border security and counter-drone capabilities. ТАСС reports Donald Trump stripped Kamala Harris of state protection, according to CNN. Басурин о главном posts a photo message with the caption "Europe sabotages peace: sanctions instead of negotiations," a clear RF propaganda piece framing Europe as the aggressor. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: "Операция Z" shares a video featuring Ukrainian MP Oleg Dunda discussing the changing perceptions of Ukrainians abroad regarding the conflict, stating "Six months abroad - and you are no longer Ukrainian." This is a RF information operation to highlight internal divisions and question the loyalty of Ukrainian diaspora. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: TASS reports Maria Zakharova's statements at a briefing, likely focusing on RF diplomatic positions and counter-narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Рыбарь posts a propaganda map titled "Rebellion is brewing?" detailing alleged protests against TCC (Territorial Centers of Recruitment and Social Support) across Ukraine. This is a RF information operation designed to highlight internal Ukrainian discontent with mobilization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: ТАСС propagates Zelenskyy's statement "Ukraine is not able to win back its borders," a clear information operation to demoralize UAF and international support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video of a street performance in Ukraine, framing it within the context of relatives of missing persons in Ukraine, implying a focus on UAF losses and internal social issues. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ disseminates data claiming 220,000 RF soldiers killed through "registry of hereditary cases," which is a UAF counter-propaganda effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts a video of Zelenskyy boarding a bus, with the caption "Zelya-Boba," which is a derogatory and dismissive RF propaganda attempt to undermine UAF leadership. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UAF:
Air Defense Posture: UAF maintains high readiness, achieving a high intercept rate against RF air assets. Continuous monitoring and reporting of RF UAVs across Ukraine. 8 UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight. UAF Air Force reports 46 out of 68 enemy UAVs shot down/suppressed overnight, indicating persistent high air defense readiness against a new wave of RF drones. An air raid alert was declared in Kyiv due to the threat of ballistic missiles and/or UAVs, and has since been rescinded. UAF Air Force issued a new "Attention!" warning. UAF Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Kharkivshchyna. UAF reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs active in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia, with assets engaged for interception. STERNENKO reports the 40th Separate Artillery Brigade (OABr) has shot down another 10 UAVs. STERNENKO reports transferring interceptors to a unit that "no longer has anyone to work with them," indicating possible personnel or resource strain. STERNENKO further clarifies that Ground Forces also play a significant role in air defense, particularly with drones against Shaheds, highlighting a multi-branch approach. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports enemy tactical aviation activity in the eastern direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Deep Strike Operations: UAF continues successful deep strikes on RF internal infrastructure (Orel, Rostov, Kuybyshevsky refinery). Additional video evidence of the Orel strike further solidifies UAF deep strike effectiveness. GUR has successfully struck an RF S-400 radar complex (91N6E) in Crimea. РБК-Україна releases drone video confirming the strike on the S-400 radar. STERNENKO claims +330 FPV drones procured, indicating ongoing support for deep strike capabilities. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС provides video evidence of the GUR strike on the S-400 radar complex. Сливочный каприз provides video footage of a Ukrainian drone destroying a Russian 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, and РБК-Україна report UAF units carried out a complex fire attack on a linear production station (oil product facility) in Naytopovichi, Bryansk Oblast, which ensures fuel supply for the Russian army. STERNENKO also posts video of the Bryansk strike. ASTRA reports Kuybyshevsky Oil Refinery suspended operations following yesterday's UAV attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: STERNENKO posts video of drone strikes on RF targets in Zaporizhzhia, demonstrating ongoing deep/tactical strike capability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Ground Forces: UAF maintains defensive lines and conducts counter-attacks. Alleged deployment of special engineering equipment to Kharkiv indicates a focus on strengthening long-term defensive positions, possibly due to anticipated RF pressure or a perceived need to conserve personnel. A Ukrainian soldier successfully engaged RF positions near Konstantinovka with an anti-tank mine, demonstrating continued tactical effectiveness. "Zvиздец Мангусту" claims UAF successful counter-attacks and repelling RF forces in Zelenyi Hai, Tolstoy, and Voronoe (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) indicates active ground defense and localized offensive capabilities. UAF reports RF attacks on 5 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast, indicating defensive engagements. UAF Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast and Suminshchyna. DeepState has updated its map, indicating ongoing positional changes. Два майора posts a video showing two Ukrainian soldiers in a military vehicle with advanced communication/EW systems. Liveuamap Source, citing UAF General Staff, reports clashes across multiple sectors, indicating active defensive and offensive engagements by UAF forces. UAF General Staff reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 3 Russian army assaults in the Kherson direction. "Воин DV" posts drone footage showing an armored vehicle being destroyed, labeled "Self-destruction in Azov style," suggesting an RF claim of successful engagement against UAF armored assets. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС video showing two RF soldiers hiding in a tree being liquidated by FPV drones from the 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade in the Lyman direction, demonstrating UAF tactical drone effectiveness. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on an incredible rescue of infantry from the Kara-Dag brigade from encirclement near Komyshivka, Pokrovsk direction, Donetsk Oblast, after they escaped captivity. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» posts videos of UAF soldiers training in mountainous, forested terrain in the Carpathians, implying preparedness for diverse operational environments. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy identifies the Pokrovsk direction as the "most serious" on the front, with RF accumulating up to 100,000 personnel, underscoring significant UAF defensive posture required. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: UAF General Staff posts photos from a video conference with Chief Commanders of the Armed Forces of "Coalition of the Willing" member countries. This indicates high-level UAF strategic coordination with international partners for ground operations. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Emergency Response: Fully engaged in mass casualty and damage response in Kyiv (23 fatalities), Dnipropetrovsk (2 fatalities, 3 injured), Zaporizhzhia (now 73-year-old female injured, in addition to three others, and now 3 women injured). Emergency response actively engaged in Zaporizhzhia district following RF attack that injured a one-year-old child, a 70-year-old male, and a 59-year-old male. "Оперативний ЗСУ" photos confirm ongoing liquidation of consequences of RF shelling in Kyiv. РБК-Україна reports firefighters responding to damage at a fire station in Dnipro. Zelenskiy / Official confirms rescue operations concluded in Kyiv's Darnytskyi district, with 8 people still missing. РБК-Україна reports details of a fatal traffic accident in Kyiv, resulting in the death of a police officer and three injured. ASTRA reports 2 people injured in RF attacks on Kherson Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Strategic Communication/Diplomacy: Actively reporting civilian casualties, leveraging international statements (Turkish FM on Donetsk claims), and managing diplomatic relations. Air Force of Ukraine issues "Attention!" warning, indicating ongoing aerial threat monitoring and public alerts. UAF is actively engaging with the public regarding the pause in Kyiv metro service, framing it as a moment of mourning and commemoration for fallen defenders. UAF General Staff provides updated RF combat losses. UAF 46th Separate Airmobile Podilsk Brigade DShV of UAF observes August 29 as a Day of Remembrance for Defenders of Ukraine, reinforcing national morale. "КМВА" (Kyiv City Military Administration) highlights Ukraine's day of remembrance for fallen defenders, further reinforcing morale. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration observes a daily moment of silence, reinforcing national remembrance efforts. UAF is promoting the serial production of a "Flamingo" missile with a 3000km range, indicating a focus on long-range strike capabilities. The newly appointed female president of the Kyiv Aviation Institute is challenging the perception of education as draft evasion, suggesting UAF/Ukrainian society is addressing military service engagement. Zelenskiy / Official channels are also commemorating fallen defenders on August 29. STERNENKO reports the US deported 30 Russians, including a deserter, which could be leveraged for morale. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports 42 suspicions and over 468 million UAH in damages from corruption in Kyiv Oblast, indicating active internal anti-corruption efforts. РБК-Україна highlights over 100 billion UAH in public utility debt, signaling internal economic challenges. STERNENKO posts a photo commemorating a 24-year-old mother and her 2-year-old daughter killed in Kyiv, aiming to elicit an emotional response. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the UN Security Council will meet today at Ukraine's request to discuss the large-scale air attack on Kyiv. Oleg Synegubov, head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, posts a photo commemorating August 29 as the Day of Remembrance for Defenders. РБК-Україна also posts a photo commemorating the Day of Remembrance for Defenders, referencing Ilovaisk. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a motivational video with the text "We remember! We will retaliate!", featuring a storm brigade. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War held a meeting with families of missing persons and prisoners in Chernihiv Oblast, demonstrating support for families. РБК-Україна announces the opening of a National Military Memorial Cemetery in Kyiv Oblast. РБК-Україна is supporting a collection for vehicles for the 153rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, indicating active civil-military cooperation. The Office of the Prosecutor General is investigating a former Naftogaz executive for alleged abuse of power and over 26 million UAH in damages, highlighting ongoing anti-corruption efforts. ОТУ "Харків" commemorates fallen defenders with a sunflower image. Олексій Білошицький commemorates fallen defenders with a video. РБК-Україна reports a second UAF sailor has died. КМВА (Kyiv City Military Administration) provides an updated fatality count for Kyiv (23 total, 22 in Darnytskyi district), with 8 missing. President's Brigade of UAF commemorates fallen defenders. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video commemorating fallen defenders. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Belgium will supply F-16 fighters to Ukraine as soon as possible and allocate an additional 100 million Euros in military aid. DeepState posts an image commemorating the Day of Remembrance for Defenders of Ukraine, reinforcing national morale. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration launches a training program for veteran rehabilitation through sport, aiming to support veteran welfare and public engagement. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (Air Assault Forces of Ukraine) posts a video interviewing a soldier about his motivations for joining the military, focusing on patriotism and mutual support, aiming to boost morale and encourage recruitment. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports documenting another RF war crime involving the torture of Ukrainian prisoners of war. Привид Хортиці posts on the Ilovaisk tragedy, reinforcing the Day of Remembrance. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports that countering crimes against national security (collaborators and traitors) is a priority. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Belgium will provide 100M Euros in military aid for US weapons, which Prime Minister Shmyhal announced. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими posts about a meeting with an NGO for families of servicemen, "United by Kursk region," highlighting ongoing support efforts. РБК-Україна reports that the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Russian Ambassador due to the massive shelling of Ukraine. This indicates continued international diplomatic pressure on RF. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Germany is "very satisfied" with cooperation with Kyiv on the production of long-range weapons in Ukraine with German funds, citing Defense Minister Pistorius. This is a significant development in UAF's long-range strike capabilities. The video shows the opening of a new Rheinmetall factory in Ukraine, producing 155mm artillery shells. STERNENKO appeals for donations, stating "our people need help. Cover the infantry, destroy the Russians." This highlights ongoing UAF resource needs and continuous combat operations. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a new "⚠Увага!" (Attention!) warning. РБК-Україна shares a Gallup poll indicating American public sentiment towards the war, aid to Ukraine, and Trump-Putin agreements. This reflects UAF's efforts to monitor and understand international public opinion. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Kaja Kallas, the Prime Minister of Estonia, stated that EU countries are already preparing the 19th package of sanctions against Russia. This highlights ongoing diplomatic pressure from European allies. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War held a meeting with families of the 158th Separate Mechanized Brigade. This indicates specific UAF efforts to support the families of a particular unit. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Zelenskyy outlined three key blocks of security guarantees for Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy's statements on Russia's reluctance to meet, Trump's ultimatum, and the potential for a foreign contingent in Ukraine. This reflects proactive UAF diplomatic messaging and attempts to shape international discourse. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: РБК-Україна quotes Zelenskyy stating "We all understand that Russia will not be able to occupy us today." This is a public statement of confidence and resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Border Movements: Colonelcassad reports videos of long queues at border crossings, particularly with Poland, following the official publication of a law lifting the ban on Ukrainian citizens aged 18-22 leaving Ukraine. The videos show various civilians, including young adults, anticipating travel. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
1.4. Intelligence Gaps from Previous Report Addressed/Updated:
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
Capabilities:
Intentions:
Courses of Action (COA) Currently Observed:
2.2. Recent tactical changes or adaptations
2.3. Logistics and sustainment status
2.4. Command and control effectiveness
Ukrainian force posture and readiness: UAF maintains a high state of air defense readiness against a massive, multi-domain RF air attack, achieving a high intercept rate despite the unprecedented scale. Ground forces are holding defensive lines and conducting localized counter-attacks. Deep strike operations continue successfully against high-value RF targets. Military innovation initiatives (Brave1) are active. UAF continues to maintain vigilance against new RF air threats (Poltava, Dnipro/Samar, northern Chernihivshchyna, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia). UAF is reported by RF to be deploying engineering equipment (bulldozers) for long-term defense in the Kharkiv direction, indicating a proactive approach to strengthening fortifications. UAF emergency services are responding to a Russian attack that injured a one-year-old child, a 70-year-old male, a 59-year-old male, and a 73-year-old female in Zaporizhzhia district (and 3 women). UAF public messaging is preparing citizens for a moment of mourning and metro pause in Kyiv, indicating high morale support efforts. UAF General Staff has updated RF combat losses. UAF emergency services are responding to 2 fatalities and 3 injured in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The 46th Separate Airmobile Podilsk Brigade DShV of UAF observes August 29 as a Day of Remembrance for Defenders of Ukraine, indicating robust internal morale and historical commemoration efforts. UAF maintains control of Kryvyi Rih. Ukraine's serial production of a "Flamingo" missile with a 3000km range signals an enhanced long-range strike capability. The newly appointed female president of Kyiv Aviation Institute highlights adapting education to wartime realities and challenges perceptions of draft evasion, showing an effort to strengthen human capital for defense. Zelenskiy / Official channels are commemorating fallen defenders, reinforcing national unity. STERNENKO reports US deportation of Russian deserter, a potential morale boost. The air raid alert for Kyiv underscores continued high readiness. The Office of the Prosecutor General's reporting on corruption in Kyiv Oblast demonstrates ongoing efforts to maintain internal integrity. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights the psychological toll and resilience of UAF pilots through helmet camera footage. DeepState updating its map confirms continuous monitoring and readiness. A National Military Memorial Cemetery has been opened in Kyiv Oblast. РБК-Україна is supporting a collection for vehicles for the 153rd Separate Mechanized Brigade. ОТУ "Харків", Олексій Білошицький, and UAF General Staff are actively involved in commemorating fallen defenders, boosting national morale and remembrance. UAF Marine Corps shows high readiness. UAF General Staff reports on clashes across multiple directions, confirming active engagement and defensive posture. UAF General Staff reports repelling 3 RF assaults in the Kherson direction, demonstrating strong defensive readiness. President's Brigade of UAF commemorates fallen defenders, reinforcing morale. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's video commemoration further highlights national unity and remembrance efforts. Belgium's commitment to F-16s and 100M Euros in aid significantly enhances UAF long-term posture and readiness. DeepState posts an image commemorating the Day of Remembrance for Defenders of Ukraine, reinforcing national morale. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration launches a training program for veteran rehabilitation through sport. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (Air Assault Forces of Ukraine) posts a video interviewing a soldier about his motivations for joining the military, focusing on patriotism and mutual support, aiming to boost morale and encourage recruitment. UAF reconnaissance UAVs are active in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia, with assets engaged for interception. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports documenting another RF war crime involving the torture of Ukrainian prisoners of war, demonstrating commitment to justice. Привид Хортиці posts on the Ilovaisk tragedy, reinforcing the Day of Remembrance. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports that countering crimes against national security (collaborators and traitors) is a priority. Олександр Вілкул confirms civilian firearms training in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, including mine safety, indicating strong civilian readiness. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts about rebuilding efforts in Zaporizhzhia after RF attacks, demonstrating resilience. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» posts videos of soldiers conducting mountainous terrain training, indicating readiness for diverse and challenging environments. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports 40 suspicions for state treason and collaborationism in Kherson Oblast, indicating ongoing efforts to maintain internal security. РБК-Україна reports Sweden summoned Russian Ambassador, indicating active diplomatic response. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Germany "very satisfied" with long-range weapon production in Ukraine, highlighting bolstered defense industrial capabilities. STERNENKO's donation appeal indicates ongoing efforts to equip UAF forces. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a new "⚠Увага!" warning, demonstrating continued vigilance. Oleg Synegubov's commemoration photos demonstrate UAF leadership's efforts to maintain morale and recognize sacrifices. РБК-Україна shares a Gallup poll on American public opinion, reflecting UAF's efforts to monitor international sentiment. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Kaja Kallas (Estonian PM) stating EU preparing 19th package of sanctions. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War held a meeting with families of the 158th Separate Mechanized Brigade, demonstrating specific support for unit families. Оперативний ЗСУ reports Zelenskyy outlined three key blocks of security guarantees for Ukraine, showing high-level strategic planning. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts photo messages discussing financial support and expert advice for developing veteran business in Zaporizhzhia, demonstrating a focus on veteran reintegration and economic resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy's statements on Russia's reluctance to meet, Trump's ultimatum, and potential for a foreign contingent in Ukraine, which underscores UAF's strategic communication. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: UAF General Staff posts photos from a video conference with Chief Commanders of the Armed Forces of "Coalition of the Willing" member countries. This indicates UAF's high-level readiness for international military coordination. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) posts photos of a young girl preparing for school, emphasizing normalcy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Zelenskiy / Official and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА post videos of Zelenskyy presenting apartment certificates to Heroes' families, showcasing social welfare efforts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Сили оборони Півдня України shares a video on combat medic training, emphasizing resilience and preparedness. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: Офіс Генерального прокурора posts photos related to alleged corruption in Kirovohrad region. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of an RF occupier confessing to executing 5 Ukrainian prisoners of war in Karlvoka, Donetsk Oblast. This highlights UAF's commitment to documenting war crimes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: РБК-Україна quotes Zelenskyy stating "We all understand that Russia will not be able to occupy us today," reinforcing public confidence. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports "UAF reinforcement on Tetkino direction," indicating enhanced border defense posture. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
Recent tactical successes or setbacks:
Resource requirements and constraints: The unprecedented scale of the RF air attack necessitates urgent and continuous resupply of all air defense munitions. The high casualty count and extensive damage place immense strain on civilian emergency services, medical resources, and psychological support networks. Sustaining deep strike operations
Propaganda and disinformation campaigns:
Public sentiment and morale factors:
International support and diplomatic developments:
Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):
Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):
Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:
END REPORT
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