Archived operational intelligence briefing
TIME: 291233Z AUG 25
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: The Russian Federation (RF) continues its multi-domain offensive, with persistent ground pressure on the Eastern Front, particularly the Pokrovsk direction, which President Zelenskyy now identifies as the most serious, with RF accumulating up to 100,000 personnel. RF claims recent advances in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, and the liberation of six settlements in the past week, including the alleged cutting of the Dobropillya-Kramatorsk supply route. Deep strike operations against Ukrainian targets continue, with RF claiming the destruction of a UAF "Neptune" missile system in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (confirmed by new video from Операция Z). UAF continues its deep strike operations, reportedly hitting another RF oil product facility in Bryansk Oblast and successfully targeting an RF S-400 radar system in Crimea. RF continues to focus on information operations exploiting internal Ukrainian vulnerabilities (mobilization, economic hardship). Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) General Staff reports clashes across multiple directions including Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, and Kherson. UAF reports RF reconnaissance UAVs active in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia, potentially acting as spotters for strikes. Mash on Donbas reports a residential building in Mariupol was destroyed after a night attack by UAF. RF continues to push for demilitarization of the Ukraine-Russia border zone. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Central/Northern Ukraine:
RF Internal: Persistent oil refinery fires (Kuybyshevsky), a large industrial fire in Rostov, and the UAF drone attack in Orel (now four injured) highlight continued vulnerabilities to deep strikes. Forest fire in Gelendzhik has grown to 41.5 hectares. RF internal security measures remain active, including detentions of musicians for "violating silence" and addressing financial fraud. TASS reports the death of composer Rodion Shchedrin. TASS reports the first imported case of Chikungunya fever in RF. A "South Russian tarantula" is increasingly appearing in Moscow, a minor environmental/psychological factor. TASS reports new commemorative coins will be issued on September 1st. Izevsk airport to be named after Kalashnikov. TASS reports on limitations for foreign agents starting September. TASS reports on gradual recovery of the Russian automotive market. STERNENKO reports queues at gas stations in Khabarovsk Krai due to gasoline deficit. TASS reports the Central Bank will lower its key rate by 100 or 200 basis points on September 12th, indicating economic adjustments. ASTRA reports healthcare workers in Dagestan complaining about regular electricity outages paralyzing their polyclinic's work, which highlights internal infrastructure challenges and potential social unrest. TASS reports July 2025 was the third warmest on record. Alex Parker Returns reports on the detention of the Armenian consul in Austria for alleged espionage on behalf of Azerbaijan, a development in regional intelligence. Север.Реалии reports a painter from Cherepovets faces 4 years in prison for comments calling for executions of officials. Север.Реалии reports Dmitry Orlov was sentenced to three years imprisonment. TASS reports that Putin has transferred assets of Air Liquide in Russia under the temporary management of "M-Logistika." TASS reports temperature across Russia will be above normal for the next 10 days. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports that places have run out at the military cemetery in Chelyabinsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE for most, LOW CONFIDENCE for tarantula's military impact)
Naval Operations (Sea of Azov/Black Sea/Crimea): The GUR strike on a Project 21631 "Buyan-M" class missile corvette in the Sea of Azov damaged its radar system. RF continues to push the narrative of a USV sinking a Ukrainian reconnaissance vessel "Simferopol." "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reports NATO reconnaissance along the Black Sea border, with video of a US Navy P-8A Poseidon. GUR has successfully struck an RF S-400 radar complex (91N6E) in Crimea. РБК-Україна reports a second UAF sailor has died from the recent RF strike on a UAF naval vessel. ASTRA confirms the death of a second UAF sailor. ("Два майора" posts a video labeled "Odesa" showing military personnel entering a secured gate with a timestamp of 26 AUG 25. This could imply RF activity or intelligence collection related to Ukrainian port infrastructure.) Mash on Donbas reports a residential three-story building was destroyed after a night attack by UAF on Mariupol. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Eastern Front (Donetsk/Kharkiv): RF claims pressure on UAF in Konstantinovka, DNR, from multiple directions, and the "clearing" of the southwestern part of Chasiv Yar, DPR. Colonelcassad reports FAB strikes on Ukrainian positions in Krasnoyarsk. RF MoD released footage claiming the "liberation" of Pervomaisk, DPR. Kotsnews provides video footage of the "capture of Pervomaisk," showing widespread destruction. RF military expert Marochko claims significant NATO small arms and grenade launchers were seized by RF forces in western LNR. TASS reports RF claims that UAF is deploying special engineering equipment, including bulldozers, to the Kharkiv direction for long-term defense due to personnel shortages. "Два майора" reports a summary for 29 AUG 25, suggesting ongoing combat operations across fronts. Colonelcassad releases video of "combat work" by scouts from RF's 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade targeting UAF armored vehicles in the South Donetsk direction. TASS cites military expert Andrey Marochko claiming Kyiv has not evacuated the bodies of fallen UAF soldiers near Kupyansk and Kreminna for months. BУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports a Ukrainian soldier from the 3rd battalion, 111th TRO brigade, Artyom Smily, successfully engaged and blew up Russian occupiers' positions with an anti-tank mine near Konstantinovka, Donetsk Oblast. "Zvиздец Мангусту" claims UAF success in repelling RF attacks, specifically retaking Zelenyi Hai and ejecting RF from Tolstoy, and liquidating several RF assault groups in Voronoe (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). UAF reports RF attacks on 5 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast. "Операция Z" claims Russian offensive is breaking the front, with UAF surrendering positions in panic, citing FT. UAF Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Donetsk Oblast and Suminshchyna. "Воин DV" claims operators of RF's 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, 35th Army, "Vostok" Group, used FPV drones to destroy a UAF platoon in under an hour on the Zaporizhzhia direction, supported by thermal imagery. RF MoD claims "Grad" MLRS crew delivered a powerful strike at AFU positions in Krasnoarmeysk direction. Colonelcassad shows RF 16th Spetsnaz Brigade operating in Kupyansk. TASS reports RF destroyed an "Azov" "strike fist" near Karpivka, Serednye, Shandryholove, and Derilove in the Krasnolymanske direction. Народная милиция ДНР posts video claiming destruction of a UAF UAV control point near Kleban-Byk. Оперативний ЗСУ shows video of an FPV drone strike on Russian soldiers hiding in trees, labeled as a "new tactic" to evade drones. RF TASS claims artillery and UAVs of "Southern" group destroyed a UAF crossing near Dronovka, DNR. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims RF forces destroyed an "Azov assault fist" on the Krasnolymansk direction. UAF Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Kharkivshchyna. Старше Эдды claims UAF is attacking on the Krasnolymansk direction, following Trump's advice. TASS reports RF forces have cut the Dobropillya-Kramatorsk road, used for UAF supply. Liveuamap Source, citing UAF General Staff, reports clashes yesterday near Zapadne, Synkivka, Holubivka, Zahryzove (Kupyansk direction); Hrekivka, Novomykhaylivka, Karpivka, Zelena Dolyna, Kolodyazi, Torske and towards Yampil, Dronivka, Serebryanka (Lyman direction); Hryhorivka, Vyyimka, Pereyizne (Siversk direction); Stupochky (Kramatorsk direction); Scherbynivka, Toretsk, Rusyn Yar (Toretsk direction); Poltavka, Volodymyrivka, Novoekonomichne, Rodynske, Lysivka, Sukhyy Yar, Dachenske, Zvirove, Udachne, Horikhove, Novoukrayinka (Pokrovsk direction); Voskresenka, Maliyivka, Zelenyy Hay, Piddubne, Oleksandrohrad, Zaporizhzhia (Novopavlivka direction). Сливочный каприз provides video footage of a Ukrainian drone destroying a Russian 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer in a wooded area near Kozacha Lopan - Turovo. Операция Z (Военкоры Русской Весны) shares a map claiming RF advances in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. TASS, citing the RF MoD, claims units of the "Center" group are continuing offensive actions in DNR and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. TASS, citing the RF MoD, claims RF forces have liberated six settlements in the zone of the special operation over the past week. "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts drone footage showing significant destruction in a settlement (labeled as Pervomaisk) with a Russian flag, claiming advances in DNR. "Воин DV" posts drone footage showing an armored vehicle (implied UAF) being engaged and destroyed by fire with visible personnel around it, labeled "Self-destruction in Azov style." Colonelcassad posts a video claiming 8 units of equipment and up to 50 personnel of the "Azov" unit were destroyed in the Krasnolymansk direction as a result of repelling UAF counterattacks. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts a video showing two RF soldiers hiding in a tree being liquidated by FPV drones from the 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade in the Lyman direction. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that DeepState confirms RF advances near three settlements in Donetsk Oblast. Kotsnews reports RF forces have repelled UAF attacks on the Pokrovskoye (Krasnoarmeyskoye) direction, with an FPV drone destroying a UAF T-64 tank on a former UAF repair base. Colonelcassad posts a video claiming Russian soldiers with a Russian flag in Pervoe Maya (DNR), confirming RF presence in a liberated settlement. Воин DV posts video showing daily FAB strikes on UAF positions continuing. Операция Z reports "Otvazhny" forces creating a "fiery carnival" for UAF in Pokrovsk. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims a high-ranking Estonian special forces officer was liquidated by RF in Sumy Oblast. NEW: Colonelcassad reports that an RF strike in Konstantinovka destroyed a large Ukrainian humanitarian aid warehouse, containing "several tens of tons" of various goods, including WHOLE MILK POWDER and UNICEF-marked boxes. Local "svidomye" (pro-Ukrainian individuals) are reportedly blaming the local "gauleiter" (appointed leader) and "occupational authorities" for not distributing the aid in time. NEW: TASS reports RF forces destroyed a temporary deployment point and a robotic platform near Konstantinovka, with thermal video footage showing a drone strike on a target. NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy identifies the Pokrovsk direction as the "most serious" on the front, with RF accumulating up to 100,000 personnel. NEW: Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition posts video of combat for Zaporizhzhia in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a Ukrainian soldier discussing reconnaissance and tactics, and another Russian soldier discussing captured equipment from an encirclement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Southern Front (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson): UAF reports a UAV heading towards Dnipro/Samar. RF claims that "Dnepr group" machine gunners destroyed over 30 UAF "Baba Yaga" drones in Kherson Oblast, indicating active counter-drone operations. A one-year-old child, a 70-year-old male, a 59-year-old male, and a 73-year-old female were injured as a result of a Russian attack on the Zaporizhzhia district. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration observes a daily moment of silence for fallen defenders. UAF Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs in the Zaporizhzhia area. WarGonzo reports a frontline summary for the Zaporizhzhia front, indicating ongoing combat. "Воин DV" claims operators of RF's 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, 35th Army, "Vostok" Group, used FPV drones to destroy a UAF platoon in under an hour on the Zaporizhzhia direction, supported by thermal imagery. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports 3 women were injured in an enemy attack on Zaporizhzhia district. UAF General Staff reports RF aviation conducted airstrikes at Bilohirya of Zaporizhzhia region and Kozatske of Kherson region. UAF General Staff reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 3 Russian army assaults in the Kherson direction. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration posts video commemorating fallen defenders. UAF reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs active in Zaporizhzhia, with assets engaged for interception. TASS posts a video claiming an RF "Iskander" missile system destroyed a UAF "Neptune" complex in Lyubytske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Военкор Котенок also posts a video claiming the defeat of a UAF "Neptune" missile complex in Lyubytske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. ASTRA reports 2 people were injured in RF attacks on Kherson Oblast. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports 40 suspicions for state treason and collaborationism in Kherson Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
RF UAV Reconnaissance/Strike Identification:
RF Civilian Reserve Formations: NEW: AV БогомаZ posts photo messages commemorating the one-year anniversary of the formation of BARS (Combat Army Reserve of the Country) detachments in Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod Oblasts by order of President Putin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
RF:
Naval Forces: RF naval forces operate in the Sea of Azov/Black Sea, using USVs. ("Два майора" posts a video labeled "Odesa" showing military personnel entering a secured gate, potentially indicating RF intelligence collection or activity related to Ukrainian port infrastructure.) Mash on Donbas reports destruction of a residential building in Mariupol after a UAF night attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Internal Security/Air Defense: Active air defense against UAF deep strikes. RF internal security is engaged in counter-sabotage, anti-fraud measures, and cultural control (St. Petersburg musicians). FSB arrests and sentencing for "terrorism" in Chita highlights ongoing RF internal security operations. FSB has detained two residents of Yaroslavl Oblast on suspicion of treason (Podduбный |Z|О|V| edition). TASS reports that a high-speed train for the future High-Speed Mainline (HSM) will be controlled by AI, a technological projection. TASS reports a proposal to introduce a fee for truck travel on regional roads, a potential logistical/economic measure. TASS reports that Moscow condemns attempts by Britain, France, and Germany to renew UN sanctions against Iran, indicating RF's diplomatic stance. TASS reports a new political party forming in Armenia for 2026 elections, showing RF interest in regional politics. ТАСС reports on the release of commemorative coins. TASS reports on limitations for "foreign agents" starting September. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports FSB detained two residents of Yaroslavl Oblast for transferring information about critical infrastructure to Ukraine. Операция Z posts video of FSB detention in Yaroslavl Oblast, featuring an alleged Ukrainian agent. Izevsk airport will be named after Kalashnikov. TASS reports on the gradual recovery of the Russian automotive market. Colonelcassad posts a video of FSB detaining two Russians in Yaroslavl Oblast for transmitting information about critical infrastructure to Ukrainian special services. The video shows a man (Nikolai, from Ukraine) admitting to being contacted through Telegram and asked to provide information on Western weapons and signals intelligence for cryptocurrency. This confirms ongoing RF counter-espionage efforts and alleged Ukrainian intelligence gathering. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports five individuals in Transbaikalia were sentenced to up to 13 years for terrorism and sabotage. Alex Parker Returns reports on the detention of the Armenian consul in Austria for alleged espionage on behalf of Azerbaijan, a regional intelligence development. TASS reports that video messages are now available on the Max platform. Новости Москвы and Alex Parker Returns report on statements by Deputy Gorelkin that only MAX and Telegram will remain as messengers in Russia, with MAX taking a leading position, indicating ongoing state control over digital communication. Kadyrov_95 reports visits by high-ranking МВД officials to checkpoints in the "South" grouping, indicating security measures and internal control. Colonelcassad reports on Vologda Governor Filimonov's actions related to monuments and business closures, indicating local governance and control. NEW: "Два майора" cites First Deputy Head of the Duma Committee on Information Policy, Gorelkin, stating that Telegram will not be blocked in Russia. This directly contradicts previous reports on messenger consolidation and suggests a clarification or shift in RF internal information control policy. NEW: Alex Parker Returns posts a photo of "Colonel SVR Igor Chernov," claiming he is "NATO's number one threat" and responsible for "dozens of failed Pentagon operations," a clear RF propaganda piece to boost SVR image. NEW: TASS posts about Russian football players being included in the national team for upcoming friendly matches, which is irrelevant to military intelligence. NEW: TASS reports that Putin has transferred assets of Air Liquide in Russia under the temporary management of "M-Logistika." TASS reports that Putin discussed "priority steps in relations with CIS countries" with the Security Council, with Lavrov as the main speaker. This indicates continued RF diplomatic and political engagement with its near abroad. NEW: Рыбарь posts on "Фильтр на школьном пороге" (Filter at the school threshold), likely related to security measures or ideological control in schools, an ongoing RF internal control measure. NEW: Игорь Артамонов (Lipetsk Governor) posts photos from a meeting on road accident rates, indicating a focus on internal public safety and governance. NEW: Север.Реалии reports that the Russian Prosecutor General's Office demanded that the largest music publishing house "Muzyka" be transferred to state ownership, indicating increased state control over cultural assets. NEW: Colonelcassad reports that the Russian government has approved rules for marking calls from companies and individual entrepreneurs. This is an internal control measure. NEW: AV БогомаZ posts photo messages commemorating the one-year anniversary of the formation of BARS (Combat Army Reserve of the Country) detachments in Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod Oblasts by order of President Putin. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) * NEW: TASS reports that passenger boarding on trains using biometrics will start after September 1st, a new internal security/convenience measure for transportation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Information Warfare: Actively propagating claims via TASS (e.g., SBU defector, Colombian mercenaries, UAF bodies unevacuated near Kupyansk/Kreminna) to discredit UAF and influence international perception. TASS reports a Danish mercenary, Annabel Jørgensen, sentenced to 26 years in absentia, has appealed the verdict, likely used for propaganda purposes. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" reinforces claims of UAF torture of RF prisoners, citing personal experience. "Операция Z" quotes Le Point stating Trump sees Ukraine as an obstacle to normal relations with Russia, used to influence international perception. TASS cites Spanish mercenary Juan Astray claiming UAF foreign legion recruits do not undergo blood tests, attempting to discredit UAF recruitment standards. "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" publishes images and video implying NATO reconnaissance in the Black Sea. TASS reports that the upcoming visit of Putin to China will be an important milestone for bilateral relations and a manifesto for peace. Операция Z posts video alleging Ukrainian mobilization is separating single fathers from children, placing children in orphanages, and shows young Ukrainians claiming they will leave the country once borders open, to demoralize and highlight social issues. TASS broadcasts an interview with Elena Malysheva, head of the National Center for Historical Memory, condemning the relocation of Soviet war memorials in Lviv, using historical revisionism as an information weapon. Старше Эдды claims UAF is attacking on the Krasnolymansk direction, following Trump's advice. TASS reports RF forces have cut the Dobropillya-Kramatorsk road, used for UAF supply. ASTRA reports 2 additional aerial bombs dropped by RF bombers on Belgorod Oblast and "DNR," which could be used to justify RF actions. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition amplifies claims of Ukrainian "manhunters" breaking up families due to forced mobilization. Colonelcassad conducts an interview with a captured UAF soldier, probing his knowledge of Ukrainian nationalist figures. TASS posts a briefing summary from the RF MoD, highlighting seven group strikes with precision weapons and UAVs from 23-29 AUG, and the "liberation" of six settlements, clearly aimed at showcasing RF military effectiveness. "Два майора" also highlights the RF MoD briefing as demonstrating "unyielding will." TASS posts a video claiming an RF "Iskander" missile system destroyed a UAF "Neptune" complex. WarGonzo states that the EU would commit suicide by accepting Ukraine. TASS claims that security guarantees for Kyiv should be a result, not a condition, of negotiations. Военкор Котенок continues to discuss the topic of Western troops entering Ukraine. MoD Russia provides a summary of its special military operation from August 23-29, confirming strikes on industrial and military targets. Colonelcassad also highlights these strikes. TASS reports Peskov states Putin does not rule out a meeting with Zelenskyy but it must be well-prepared. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reiterates that all RF positions on conflict resolution were conveyed to Kyiv in writing. TASS features Maria Zakharova claiming Zelenskyy sabotages the peace process. Janus Putkonen reports RF's demand for demilitarization of the Ukraine-Russia border zone. Colonelcassad posts video of RF soldiers with a Russian flag in Pervoe Maya (DNR), reinforcing territorial claims. Alex Parker Returns posts images and video of an engine fire and explosions on a military aircraft in Alaska, with a caption implying "bad luck" or "jinxed" by US strength displays, clearly a propaganda effort to mock US military. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posts a video with a graphic, then drone footage, titled "Death to the American old woman!" with a primate inset, indicating highly aggressive and dehumanizing propaganda against a Western target. Стрелков Игорь Иванович claims UAF attacked the "Druzhba" oil pipeline again, causing a "serious diplomatic scandal," clearly an information operation to portray UAF as aggressive and reckless. TASS reports Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó states Hungary expects Ukraine to undertake "even more serious political provocations" to drag neighboring countries into the war, highlighting RF's diplomatic pressure and narrative control. TASS posts Maria Zakharova's statement that denunciation of the European Convention against Torture will not harm RF citizens, likely an attempt to downplay human rights concerns. Colonelcassad discusses Kremlin's stance on a potential meeting with Zelenskyy and "European narratives," indicating continued diplomatic information control. NEW: Janus Putkonen (a pro-RF Finnish source) claims that the Kyiv government is letting young men escape Ukraine to prevent them from participating in anti-government riots or a coup, which he expects to be incited when "shit hits the fan" for Zelenskyy's administration. This is a clear RF-aligned information operation targeting Ukrainian internal stability and public trust. NEW: "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) posts a video alleging that a memorial cemetery has been opened in Kyiv where UAF soldiers are buried without names to avoid paying money to relatives. This is a highly inflammatory and likely false RF propaganda claim designed to undermine UAF morale and public trust. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС posts screenshots of RF social media reactions to the Kyiv missile/drone attack, stating "Russian sadists rejoice" over the 22 fatalities (including 4 children). This highlights RF information environment's cruelty and UAF's counter-propaganda efforts. NEW: TASS reports that Vance (J.D. Vance, US Senator) stated he is ready to become president "if a tragedy happens to Trump." This is a political statement within the US and is likely being amplified by TASS for its potential to sow political discord in a key Western ally. NEW: "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" shares an interview with Vasyliy Prozorov, a former SBU employee, who discusses SBU counterintelligence officers having "Russophobic views" and being trained by US/UK specialists near Kyiv. This is a clear RF information operation aimed at discrediting SBU and alleging foreign influence. NEW: "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) features Maria Zakharova stating that Zelenskyy is "sabotaging the peace negotiation process," while outlining RF conditions for demilitarization, denazification, non-bloc/nuclear-free status, recognition of "territorial realities," and protection of the Russian-speaking population. This is a direct RF diplomatic and information warfare effort to shift blame and assert its demands. NEW: Janus Putkonen reiterates claims about "Andromeda" and "drunk Ukrainian divers," likely a reference to previous RF propaganda claims, showing a consistent narrative. NEW: Kadyrov_95 posts a video claiming Akhmat Spetsnaz detected and destroyed a "Baba Yaga" heavy quadcopter trying to illegally cross the border in the Kozacha Lopan area (Kharkiv direction). This aims to highlight RF border security and counter-drone capabilities. NEW: ТАСС reports Donald Trump stripped Kamala Harris of state protection, according to CNN. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) * NEW: Басурин о главном posts a photo message with the caption "Europe sabotages peace: sanctions instead of negotiations," a clear RF propaganda piece framing Europe as the aggressor. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
UAF:
1.4. Intelligence Gaps from Previous Report Addressed/Updated:
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
2.2. Recent tactical changes or adaptations
2.3. Logistics and sustainment status
2.4. Command and control effectiveness
Ukrainian force posture and readiness: UAF maintains a high state of air defense readiness against a massive, multi-domain RF air attack, achieving a high intercept rate despite the unprecedented scale. Ground forces are holding defensive lines and conducting localized counter-attacks. Deep strike operations continue successfully against high-value RF targets. Military innovation initiatives (Brave1) are active. UAF continues to maintain vigilance against new RF air threats (Poltava, Dnipro/Samar, northern Chernihivshchyna, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia). UAF is reported by RF to be deploying engineering equipment (bulldozers) for long-term defense in the Kharkiv direction, indicating a proactive approach to strengthening fortifications. UAF emergency services are responding to a Russian attack that injured a one-year-old child, a 70-year-old male, a 59-year-old male, and a 73-year-old female in Zaporizhzhia district (and 3 women). UAF public messaging is preparing citizens for a moment of mourning and metro pause in Kyiv, indicating high morale support efforts. UAF General Staff has updated RF combat losses. UAF emergency services are responding to 2 fatalities and 3 injured in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The 46th Separate Airmobile Podilsk Brigade DShV of UAF observes August 29 as a Day of Remembrance for Defenders of Ukraine, indicating robust internal morale and historical commemoration efforts. UAF maintains control of Kryvyi Rih. Ukraine's serial production of a "Flamingo" missile with a 3000km range signals an enhanced long-range strike capability. The newly appointed female president of Kyiv Aviation Institute highlights adapting education to wartime realities and challenges perceptions of draft evasion, showing an effort to strengthen human capital for defense. Zelenskiy / Official channels are commemorating fallen defenders, reinforcing national unity. STERNENKO reports US deportation of Russian deserter, a potential morale boost. The air raid alert for Kyiv underscores continued high readiness. The Office of the Prosecutor General's reporting on corruption in Kyiv Oblast demonstrates ongoing efforts to maintain internal integrity. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights the psychological toll and resilience of UAF pilots through helmet camera footage. DeepState updating its map confirms continuous monitoring and readiness. A National Military Memorial Cemetery has been opened in Kyiv Oblast. РБК-Україна is supporting a collection for vehicles for the 153rd Separate Mechanized Brigade. ОТУ "Харків", Олексій Білошицький, and UAF General Staff are actively involved in commemorating fallen defenders, boosting national morale and remembrance. UAF Marine Corps shows high readiness. UAF General Staff reports on clashes across multiple directions, confirming active engagement and defensive posture. UAF General Staff reports repelling 3 RF assaults in the Kherson direction, demonstrating strong defensive readiness. President's Brigade of UAF commemorates fallen defenders, reinforcing morale. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's video commemoration further highlights national unity and remembrance efforts. Belgium's commitment to F-16s and 100M Euros in aid significantly enhances UAF long-term posture and readiness. DeepState posts an image commemorating the Day of Remembrance for Defenders of Ukraine, reinforcing national morale. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration launches a training program for veteran rehabilitation through sport. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (Air Assault Forces of Ukraine) posts a video interviewing a soldier about his motivations for joining the military, focusing on patriotism and mutual support, aiming to boost morale and encourage recruitment. UAF reconnaissance UAVs are active in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia, with assets engaged for interception. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports documenting another RF war crime involving the torture of Ukrainian prisoners of war, demonstrating commitment to justice. Привид Хортиці posts on the Ilovaisk tragedy, reinforcing the Day of Remembrance. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports that countering crimes against national security (collaborators and traitors) is a priority. Олександр Вілкул confirms civilian firearms training in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, including mine safety, indicating strong civilian readiness. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts about rebuilding efforts in Zaporizhzhia after RF attacks, demonstrating resilience. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» posts videos of soldiers conducting mountainous terrain training, indicating readiness for diverse and challenging environments. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports 40 suspicions for state treason and collaborationism in Kherson Oblast, indicating ongoing efforts to maintain internal security. NEW: РБК-Україна reports Sweden summoned Russian Ambassador, indicating active diplomatic response. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Germany "very satisfied" with long-range weapon production in Ukraine, highlighting bolstered defense industrial capabilities. NEW: STERNENKO's donation appeal indicates ongoing efforts to equip UAF forces. NEW: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a new "⚠Увага!" warning, demonstrating continued vigilance. NEW: Oleg Synegubov's commemoration photos demonstrate UAF leadership's efforts to maintain morale and recognize sacrifices. NEW: РБК-Україна shares a Gallup poll on American public opinion, reflecting UAF's efforts to monitor international sentiment. NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Kaja Kallas (Estonian PM) stating EU preparing 19th package of sanctions. NEW: The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War held a meeting with families of the 158th Separate Mechanized Brigade, demonstrating specific support for unit families. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Zelenskyy outlined three key blocks of security guarantees for Ukraine, showing high-level strategic planning. NEW: 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 posts photo messages discussing financial support and expert advice for developing veteran business in Zaporizhzhia, demonstrating a focus on veteran reintegration and economic resilience. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Recent tactical successes or setbacks:
Resource requirements and constraints: The unprecedented scale of the RF air attack necessitates urgent and continuous resupply of all air defense munitions. The high casualty count and extensive damage place immense strain on civilian emergency services, medical resources, and psychological support networks. Sustaining deep strike operations requires continued access to advanced ISR and strike platforms. The US State Department approval for ERAM missiles and other aviation munitions is critical. RF claims of UAF deploying engineering equipment to Kharkiv due to personnel shortages suggest a potential constraint on available manpower for front-line defensive operations, requiring strategic allocation of resources. RF claims regarding unevacuated UAF bodies near Kupyansk/Kreminna, if having any basis in reality (even if exaggerated for propaganda), could indicate severe pressure on UAF logistical and medical evacuation chains in those sectors, further constraining resources. Long queues at the Polish border for Ukrainian citizens, especially the 18-22 age group newly eligible to leave, may indicate economic or security pressures impacting public sentiment and raising concerns about potential "brain drain" or draft evasion. The need for funds for property and equipment restoration by "Rubizh" NGU brigade highlights ongoing resource strain and the need for external support. Over 100 billion UAH in public utility debt signals a significant economic constraint that could impact broader national resilience. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights the psychological toll on pilots, indicating potential mental health support needs. STERNENKO's crowdfunding for FPV drones indicates persistent need for materiel. РБК-Україна supporting a collection for vehicles for the 153rd Separate Mechanized Brigade further confirms ongoing equipment needs. Belgium's commitment of F-16s and 100M Euros in military aid will significantly alleviate resource constraints and enhance UAF capabilities. The alleged cutting of the Dobropillya-Kramatorsk road would significantly constrain UAF supply in the sector, requiring alternative logistics and potentially increasing vulnerability. The alleged multi-million dollar corruption schemes in Bila Tserkva's education sector, if verified, highlight internal resource leakage that could impact broader national resilience and resource allocation. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's launch of a training program for veteran rehabilitation through sport requires dedicated resources and personnel. STERNENKO's report on an air defense unit that "no longer has anyone to work with them" explicitly points to a personnel constraint, impacting the ability to utilize supplied equipment. NEW: STERNENKO's appeal for donations to "cover the infantry, destroy the Russians" explicitly highlights ongoing resource requirements, particularly for supporting ground forces with drones or other equipment. NEW: Mash on Donbas reports that stores in Donetsk will not sell alcohol in September, which could indicate localized supply chain issues or control measures that impact civilian resource availability. NEW: "Филолог в засаде" video showing 30mm cannon rounds being assembled highlights ongoing, potentially decentralized, ammunition production efforts in RF, indicating a resource stream for continuous operations. NEW: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy identifies the Pokrovsk direction as the "most serious," with RF accumulating up to 100,000 personnel, indicating significant resource requirements to counter such a force concentration. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Propaganda and disinformation campaigns:
Public sentiment and morale factors: The sheer scale and lethality of the RF air attack (23 fatalities in Kyiv, now four injured in Zaporizhzhia (including 3 women), 2 fatalities in Dnipropetrovsk, 2 injured in Kherson, now four injured in Orel, 1 injured in Belgorod, second UAF sailor dead) will severely test Ukrainian public morale, requiring strong, transparent leadership. Successful deep strikes (Bryansk oil product facility) and international support (e.g., Belgium F-16s/aid) will serve as morale boosters. RF internal social welfare initiatives (credit holidays, pharmacy proposals, pet identification, school chat control, urban traffic charges, corporate call labeling, commemorative coins, renaming airports, interest rate adjustments, messenger consolidation, foreign asset transfer, biometric train boarding) aim to bolster domestic morale. RF propaganda efforts targeting UAF's alleged treatment of prisoners and personnel shortages aim to degrade UAF morale and confidence. The KMDA's decision to pause Kyiv metro for a minute reflects an understanding of the need for public mourning and solidarity following the mass casualty event, aiming to support morale. RF claims of unevacuated UAF bodies near Kupyansk/Kreminna are designed to exploit public sentiment and potentially impact UAF morale. UAF's official commemoration of the Day of Remembrance for Defenders will serve to bolster national morale and honor fallen soldiers. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration's daily moment of silence further reinforces national remembrance. Long queues at the Polish border for Ukrainian citizens, especially the 18-22 age group newly eligible to leave, may indicate economic or security pressures impacting public sentiment and raising concerns about potential "brain drain" or draft evasion. "Операция Z" posts on single fathers mobilized and youth planning to leave are clear attempts to amplify these anxieties. RF claims of Ukrainian "manhunters" breaking up families due to forced mobilization are a direct attack on Ukrainian public sentiment. Fuel shortages in Khabarovsk Krai could impact RF public sentiment. РБК-Україна highlighting over 100 billion UAH in public utility debt could negatively impact public sentiment and trust in economic stability. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights the emotional toll on UAF pilots, speaking to broader morale challenges. The report of 220,000 RF military personnel killed, if widely believed within RF, could significantly damage RF public sentiment and morale. The fatal traffic accident in Kyiv, resulting in a police officer's death, could also impact local public sentiment regarding safety and governance. The death of a second UAF sailor could further impact morale. КМВА (Kyiv City Military Administration) provides updated civilian fatality counts for Kyiv, further reinforcing the impact on public sentiment. TASS reports on RF social welfare policies (income tax return for parents) aimed at boosting public morale and economic stability. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники claims "More than 125 thousand killed," which, if referring to RF, could negatively impact RF public sentiment. Colonelcassad's video of alleged forceful mobilization in Sumy aims to highlight social issues and negatively impact Ukrainian public sentiment regarding mobilization efforts. DeepState posts an image commemorating the Day of Remembrance for Defenders of Ukraine, reinforcing national morale. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration launches a training program for veteran rehabilitation through sport, aimed at boosting morale for veterans. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України (Air Assault Forces of Ukraine) posts a video interviewing a soldier about his motivations for joining the military, focusing on patriotism and mutual support, aiming to boost morale and encourage recruitment. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights alleged multi-million dollar corruption schemes in Bila Tserkva's education sector, which could negatively impact public trust and morale if not addressed effectively. ASTRA reports healthcare workers' complaints about power outages in Dagestan, which indicates internal public dissatisfaction in RF. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports documenting RF torture of Ukrainian prisoners of war, which will likely outrage Ukrainian public sentiment and strengthen resolve. Привид Хортиці's post on Ilovaisk reinforces a powerful historical narrative for Ukrainian morale. STERNENKO's report on air defense personnel shortages could negatively impact morale if not addressed. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС report on infantry rescue provides a significant morale boost. Север.Реалии reports on legal actions against individuals for critical comments, which will likely negatively impact public sentiment regarding freedom of speech in RF. Олександр Вілкул's solemn memorial photos aim to bolster morale by commemorating fallen defenders. Олександр Вілкул's confirmation of civilian firearms training shows an effort to maintain public confidence in self-defense. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on a full military cemetery in Chelyabinsk, which will severely impact RF public sentiment and morale if widely known, challenging official narratives of low casualties. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими posts about a meeting with families of servicemen, showing efforts to address their concerns and maintain morale. NEW: Janus Putkonen's claim about Ukrainian youth fleeing to prevent anti-government riots targets Ukrainian public morale and perception of stability. NEW: "Операция Z" video alleging unnamed burials at Kyiv memorial cemetery is designed to severely damage UAF public trust and morale. NEW: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС highlighting Russian "sadists" rejoicing over Kyiv attack aims to fuel Ukrainian public outrage and resolve. NEW: "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" video showing TCC employees struggling with a gate in Odesa could negatively impact public perception of Ukrainian mobilization and military authorities. NEW: РБК-Україна shares a Gallup poll on American public opinion, which UAF uses to understand potential shifts in international support and public sentiment. NEW: Mash on Donbas reports that stores in Donetsk will not sell alcohol in September, which could impact civilian morale and daily life in occupied territories. NEW: TASS reports that Volodin has appointed Marina Aksenova, mother of a fallen "Hero of Russia," as his assistant for the rehabilitation of special operation participants. This aims to boost RF public morale and show care for military families. NEW: Новости Москвы reports a significant car-motorcycle collision in Butovo, which could affect local public sentiment regarding safety and government effectiveness in RF. NEW: RF is using Zelenskyy's statements on security guarantees to influence public opinion regarding peace prospects. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
International support and diplomatic developments: The direct damage to diplomatic missions (Azerbaijani Embassy) will likely provoke strong international condemnation. Discussions among European leaders about a 40-kilometer buffer zone in Ukraine represent a significant diplomatic development. European interest in RF-US negotiations on Ukraine indicates a search for conflict resolution. US approval of ERAM missile and aviation munitions sales is a critical form of support. Russia and China express "most stable strategic ties," as reported by TASS, reinforcing their alliance. Turkey is reported to have revealed new Kremlin territorial conditions, stating RF has "refused to control 4 oblasts," potentially indicating a shift in RF's stated war aims, which could influence international diplomatic efforts. Politico report confirms the EU is proposing a 40km buffer zone, highlighting active international diplomatic engagement on de-escalation scenarios. TASS reports Politico's claims of French and British armed forces forming a Western contingent in Ukraine, suggesting an increase in international support or a new phase of intervention discussions. Estonia's PM Kallas calls for secondary sanctions against Russian oil supplies, indicating continued pressure from Baltic states. "Операция Z" reporting on Trump's views via Le Point aims to influence international discourse on US support for Ukraine. ASTRA reports US approval for the sale of ERAM missiles and associated equipment to Ukraine, confirming continued material support. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the UN Security Council will meet today at Ukraine's request to discuss the large-scale air attack on Kyiv, indicating strong diplomatic engagement and international condemnation. TASS reporting on Putin's upcoming visit to China as a "manifesto for peace" is aimed at the international audience. TASS reports Moscow condemns attempts to renew UN sanctions against Iran, indicating RF's diplomatic position on Iran. Belgium's commitment to F-16 fighters and 100M Euros in military aid, a significant boost to international support. TASS reports China declined a US defense minister call, indicating continued diplomatic friction between the US and China. РБК-Україна reports Belgium will consider sending military personnel to Ukraine after a peace agreement. This clarifies the conditions for Belgium's ground troop deployment, influencing diplomatic considerations and long-term planning regarding international military support. WarGonzo states that the EU would commit suicide by accepting Ukraine, indicating strong anti-Ukrainian sentiment within some RF circles. TASS claims that security guarantees for Kyiv should be a result, not a condition, of negotiations, setting diplomatic preconditions. Военкор Котенок continues to discuss the topic of Western troops entering Ukraine, indicating a continued focus on this by RF and its sympathizers. TASS reports Peskov states Putin does not rule out a meeting with Zelenskyy but it must be well-prepared, signaling RF's perceived diplomatic leverage. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reiterates that all RF positions on conflict resolution were conveyed to Kyiv in writing. TASS features Maria Zakharova claiming Zelenskyy sabotages the peace process. Janus Putkonen reports RF's demand for demilitarization of the Ukraine-Russia border. TASS reports a new Italian ambassador to RF will be "Salvini's man," indicating potential shifts in Italian foreign policy towards Russia; Оперативний ЗСУ reports Belgium will provide 100M Euros in military aid for US weapons, confirming the concrete delivery of international support. Стрелков Игорь Иванович claims UAF attacked the "Druzhba" oil pipeline again, creating a "serious diplomatic scandal," which RF will leverage for diplomatic pressure. TASS reports Hungarian FM Szijjártó's claims about Ukraine's potential for "political provocations," used to influence international opinion and policy. TASS posts Maria Zakharova's statement that denunciation of the European Convention against Torture will not harm RF citizens, which will likely draw international criticism for RF. РБК-Україна reports Kallas discussed new sanctions against RF, indicating continued European pressure on RF. NEW: РБК-Україна reports that the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Russian Ambassador due to the massive shelling of Ukraine. This indicates continued diplomatic condemnation from European states. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Germany is "very satisfied" with cooperation on long-range weapon production in Ukraine, indicating strong international support for UAF military-industrial capabilities. NEW: TASS reports Putin discussed CIS relations with Security Council, indicating continued diplomatic engagement with near-abroad allies. NEW: Colonelcassad reports Europe launched a mechanism to renew sanctions against Iran due to alleged violations, and RF condemned this. He speculates Iran will take steps to partially withdraw from the NPT. This highlights a potential new diplomatic front and a move by RF to support a partner facing Western pressure. NEW: РБК-Україна shares a Gallup poll on American public opinion regarding the war, aid to Ukraine, and Trump-Putin agreements, providing insight into international support dynamics. NEW: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Kaja Kallas, the Prime Minister of Estonia, stated that EU countries are already preparing the 19th package of sanctions against Russia. This indicates continued strong diplomatic pressure from European allies. NEW: "Операция Z" features Maria Zakharova stating Zelenskyy is "sabotaging the peace negotiation process" and outlining RF conditions for a settlement, representing a direct diplomatic effort to influence international discourse. NEW: ТАСС reports Donald Trump stripped Kamala Harris of state protection, which will be amplified for IO purposes. NEW: Басурин о главном posts propaganda on "Europe sabotages peace: sanctions instead of negotiations," indicating RF's ongoing efforts to frame Western actions negatively. NEW: Оперативний ЗСУ reports Zelenskyy outlined three key blocks of security guarantees for Ukraine, indicating a proactive diplomatic strategy. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
5.3. Timeline estimates and decision points
We only use optional analytics cookies if you allow them. Necessary cookies stay on for sign-in and site security.
Learn more in our Privacy Policy.
