Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

TIME: 280600Z AUG 25

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• OVERALL OPERATIONAL PICTURE: The Russian Federation (RF) continues a large-scale, multi-domain air offensive, demonstrating a significant escalation in the scope and lethality of attacks targeting critical infrastructure and civilian areas across central, northern, and western Ukraine. Kyiv remains under severe, sustained attack involving ballistic missiles (Iskander-M), Shahed UAVs, Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles (MiG-31K launch confirmed), Kh-101 cruise missiles (confirmed launches), and reports of "decoys" and "Gerber." Confirmed impacts and significant damage in Kyiv now include an office building, a shopping center, residential buildings, educational facilities, and numerous vehicles. The casualty count has tragically risen to 8 fatalities and over 45 injured, including one child. UAF deep strike operations into RF territory continue to be effective, confirmed to include multiple oil refineries and railway infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New reports confirm the widespread nature of fires in Kyiv, necessitating the deployment of aviation for suppression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The air raid alert for Kyiv has now been lifted, only to be reinstated moments later due to new UAV threats. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Central/Northern Ukraine (Expanded Air Threat - Intensified and Lethal):

  • Kyiv Oblast: Confirmed 3x missile impacts in Vyshhorod Raion. Kyiv city has sustained severe and significant impacts. The Kyiv Military Administration (KMA) confirms multiple damage locations in Shevchenkivskyi, Darnytskyi, Dniprovskyi, and Solomianskyi districts. A kindergarten is reported ablaze in Darnytskyi district due to an attack. Multiple apartment fires are reported in a Kyiv high-rise, and a 5-story building is significantly damaged. Tragically, 8 fatalities and 45 injured individuals (including one child) are now confirmed in Kyiv, specifically impacting a residential complex "Nova Anglia" and the Lukianivka area. President Zelenskyy has confirmed the increased casualty count. KMA reports the number of injured has risen to 45. A training institution has also been damaged, and an auto parking lot is on fire. In Dniprovskyi district, 7 vehicles are reported on fire across two locations. In Shevchenkivskyi district, 9 vehicles are reported on fire. A residential building in Holosiivskyi district has been damaged, with KMA confirming significant damage at several locations, including residential buildings, a fire, and at least 10 houses with broken windows. An office building in Obolonskyi district has been damaged. A shopping center in central Kyiv has been hit. Astra, Operativni ZSU, KMA, and Ukrainian channels provide imagery and video confirming significant destruction to residential buildings and widespread fires in Kyiv following RF attacks, corroborating the rising casualty figures. Aviation (helicopters/aircraft) have been deployed for firefighting efforts in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) New reports indicate several people may remain under rubble in Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Video from "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" shows an evacuation from a burning building, indicating immediate post-impact emergency. RBC-Ukraine provides further imagery and video of a destroyed entrance to a 5-story building in Darnytskyi district. STERNENKO and Operativni ZSU publish videos of a direct missile hit on a residential building in Kyiv, showing a significant explosion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: RF attacked two districts in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in the evening (yesterday). Operativni ZSU confirms with photo message. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kyiv/Zhytomyr Oblasts: High-speed targets detected moving towards Zhytomyr Oblast, with UAVs confirmed targeting Zhytomyr city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Chernihiv Oblast: High-speed targets detected moving towards Chernihiv city. Kh-101 cruise missiles confirmed entering via Sumy Oblast towards Chernihiv Oblast, moving southwest. Multiple groups of UAVs detected in Chernihiv Oblast moving southwest. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ballistic Missile Threat: Monitoring channels warn of ballistic missile threat from both northern and southern directions. Kyiv is confirmed under ballistic missile attack with preliminary assessment of 4x Iskander-M from Bryansk Oblast, and further ballistic missile launches from Voronezh Oblast towards Kyiv. WarGonzo claims RF attacked Kyiv with a "record number of ballistic missiles." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Mass UAV Attack: Approximately 80 UAVs reported in Ukrainian airspace, with new reports indicating movement towards Kolomyia (Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast) and Zhytomyr city. Four reactive Shaheds reported approaching Kyiv, with one high-speed target on Vasilkiv. UAVs are reported over the right bank of Kyiv. UAF Air Force re-iterates UAV threat to Kyiv, and also reports UAVs approaching Starokostiantyniv and Bila Tserkva. UAVs detected past Brovary towards Kyiv. UAVs currently on course for Vasylkiv. A new air alert for Kyiv has been declared due to UAV threats, specifically one BpLA heading towards Kyiv. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF Air Force reports a UAV is currently on course for Boryspil. KMA confirms threat of strike drones remains for Kyiv, with targets detected on approaches. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kinzhal Missile Threat: A MiG-31K, carrier of the Kinzhal aeroballistic missile, has taken off and monitoring channels reported potential Kinzhal launches. KMA explicitly states "Kinzhal" used in current attack. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Cruise Missile Threat: Monitoring channels report possible Kh-101 cruise missile launches from RF strategic aviation (Tu-95), leading to a nationwide missile threat alert. Air Force confirms groups of Kh-101 cruise missiles on the border of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts moving southwest. Subsequent confirmation of Kh-101s moving from Sumy to Poltava Oblast, then towards Cherkasy Oblast. Cruise missiles confirmed en route to Kaniv, then from Cherkasy Oblast to Kirovohrad Oblast. Group of cruise missiles on eastern Kyiv Oblast moving west. Cruise missiles on Cherkasy Oblast moving west. Group of cruise missiles confirmed heading directly for Kyiv, then another group towards Vinnytsia Oblast, then another group on northern Vinnytsia Oblast moving west, and another missile from the south towards Vasylkiv, and finally one towards Starokostiantyniv. Cruise missiles from Vinnytsia Oblast now entering Khmelnytskyi Oblast. Operativni ZSU confirms a missile shot down and 15 UAVs neutralized in Cherkasy Oblast overnight, according to OVA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Air Alert Status: The air raid alert for Kyiv was lifted as of 280333Z AUG 25, but was immediately reinstated at 280423Z AUG 25 due to new UAV threats. KMA states the threat remains. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Implication: The multi-layered, multi-directional attack on Kyiv with ballistic missiles, UAVs, confirmed Kinzhal/Kh-101 assets, and potentially "decoys" represents a severe, sustained escalation in both complexity and intent. The tragic escalation in civilian casualties (now 8 fatalities and over 45 injured, including one child) and confirmed civilian infrastructure damage (kindergarten, residential buildings, educational facility, office building, shopping center) underscores the indiscriminate nature and psychological intent of RF targeting, aiming to inflict terror and maximize societal disruption. The expansion to western vectors (Kolomyia, Starokostiantyniv, Bila Tserkva, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi) continues to stress UAF air defenses and force broader area protection. The immediate re-issuance of a Kyiv air alert due to UAV threats after an all-clear highlights the persistent, complex, and protracted nature of the RF air campaign. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Railway Infrastructure: UkrZaliznytsia (Ukrainian Railways) confirms a deliberate RF strike on an "Intercity+" high-speed train depot, causing damage to passenger trains. This has resulted in changed routes for some passenger trains. RBC-Ukraine confirms train delays across Ukraine due to the RF attack. Colonelcassad claims RF strikes in Vinnytsia and Poltava Oblasts hit railway hubs and disrupted railway communication, and posts imagery of damage at Koziatyn railway junction, claiming disrupted railway communication and damaged rolling stock. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Vinnytsia Oblast: 60,000 people are without power in Vinnytsia Oblast due to RF strikes. OVA reports enemy attacked critical infrastructure in Vinnytsia Oblast overnight. Astra confirms power outages. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Khmelnytskyi Oblast: Enemy attacked Khmelnytskyi Oblast with UAVs overnight. Interceptions confirmed, details to follow from OVA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kryvyi Rih: Situation controlled as of morning 28.08.25. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kharkiv Oblast: 7 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were attacked by enemy forces in the past day, according to Head of Regional State Administration, Oleh Syniehubov. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Donetsk Direction (Pleshcheyevka/Western LNR/Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmiysk): RF 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (150th Motorized Rifle Division) scouts, supported by an Orlan-30 UAV (439th Rocket Artillery Brigade), detected two UAF dugouts near Pleshcheyevka, destroyed by Krasnopol-M2 PGM. RF (TASS, Marochko) claims Kyiv has intensified attacks on the western LNR front, over 20 km wide. This suggests either a UAF probing attack or a counter-narrative from RF following heavy strikes on Kyiv. TASS claims RF forces "cleared 3 km near Sredneye and entrenched themselves in a forest belt near Shandrygolovo DPR." Rybar's analysis indicates Ukrainian counter-attacks near Mirnograd and advances near Pokrovsk, towards Shakhovo and Vladimirivka, and between Novooekonomicheskoye and Mirolyubovka, with a breach of Ukrainian positions near the Krasnolimanska mine shaft. Kotsnews provides video of a destroyed Leopard tank in Pokrovsk, an RF claim of a UAF loss. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) TASS (Marochko) claims RF forces advanced 1km towards Stavky DPR and broke into UAF defenses near Kolodyazi. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) TASS (from RF MoD) also claims a temporary deployment point of the 155th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the AFU near Krasnoarmiysk was hit by a FAB-250 glide bomb. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

  • Kharkiv Oblast: RF 'Colonelcassad' reports TOS (Thermobaric Artillery System) use by "Severyan" forces to burn UAF positions in Kharkiv Oblast. This is unverified but indicates continued RF use of heavy thermobaric systems. (LOW CONFIDENCE)

• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF MoD (TASS) claims artillery from "Dnipro" group hit UAF defensive positions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, releasing video of a 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer. UAF Air Force reports a UAV from the south heading towards Zaporizhzhia city. Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration confirms Russians attacked an enterprise in the city, causing a fire, and reports 4 injured individuals in Polohy and Zaporizhzhia districts. ASTRA confirms the attack on an enterprise in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RF "Операция Z" claims Russian Army liberated Plavni, burst into Primorskoye and assaults Stepnogorsk, advancing on the Zaporizhzhia front. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) Воин DV claims operators of the 36th Army (Vostok Group) destroyed a group of enemy infantry and an M113 APC in the Novoselekova area on the Vremevsky direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• RF Internal (Volgograd Oblast): Reports of a strike on Petrov Val railway station in Volgograd Oblast, confirmed by Governor. This indicates continued UAF deep strike activity against RF logistics. RF sources confirm movement suspended at a station in Volgograd Oblast due to UAV debris, causing possible passenger train delays. "Оперативний ЗСУ" confirms transport and logistics infrastructure under massive attack in Volgograd Oblast. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• RF Internal (Oil Refineries): UAF sources, independent OSINT (ASTRA), and social media reports confirm UAV attacks and significant fires at Afipsky (Krasnodar Krai) and Novokuibyshevsky (Samara Oblast) oil refineries. These are major industrial facilities, and the scale of the fires suggests substantial damage and disruption. ASTRA further emphasizes the ongoing large-scale fire at Novokuibyshevsk and provides video of the presumed moment of attack on the Kuybyshevsky (Novokuibyshevsky) refinery in Samara. "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" also provides new video footage of the Novokuibyshevsky refinery fire at night. Ukrainian channels continue to post new videos confirming fires at RF oil refineries. STERNENKO confirms operators of the 14th Separate Regiment, in cooperation with other elements of Ukraine's Defense Forces, struck the Kuybyshevsky (Novokuibyshevsky) and Afipsky refineries, posting extensive video and photo evidence of large-scale fires. ASTRA confirms the attack on the Afipsky refinery, citing Krasnodar Krai operational staff. Commandant SBS Madjar claims oil refining in Russia was "forcibly reduced by another 4.7%" overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• RF Internal (Airports): Temporary flight restrictions imposed in Sochi, Saratov, Samara airports. Rosaviatsiya reports restrictions lifted in Saratov, Sochi, and Volgograd airports. Temporary restrictions introduced in Kazan airport. Rosaviatsiya now reports restrictions lifted in Kazan and Samara airports. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• RF Internal (Rostov Oblast): RF reports drone attack repelled in Kamensky, Millerovsky, and Chertkovsky districts of Rostov Oblast. TASS reports UAV fragments fell on a house roof in a village in Rostov Oblast, leading to the evacuation of 89 people due to detonation threat. "Операция Z" claims Russian air defense shot down 102 Ukrainian drones over Russian regions overnight. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• RF Internal (Krasnodar Krai): A fire broke out in a forest area near Gelendzhik after UAV debris fell, covering 200 sq. meters. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• RF Internal (Sevastopol): Air raid alert in Sevastopol, 3 drones shot down. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• RF Internal (Samara Oblast - Railway): ASTRA confirms UAVs attacked Kryazh railway station in Samara Oblast, in addition to the oil refinery. This led to 3 train cancellations and 10 delays, according to Kuibyshevskaya Railway. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Western Ukraine (Lviv Oblast Border): Video shows young men (18-22 years old) being denied exit at the Rava-Ruska border crossing. RBC-Ukraine and Operativni ZSU now report that Ukraine has started allowing men aged 18-22 to leave the country, citing State Border Guard Service spokesperson Demchenko. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Night Operations: The ongoing UAV and missile attacks occurred primarily at night, continuing to challenge UAF night-capable air defense assets and increasing the difficulty of target acquisition for both sides. RF strategic aviation likely launched cruise missiles during optimal night conditions to maximize range and penetration. The large-scale fires in RF oil refineries are highly visible at night, increasing their public impact. The fall of UAV debris causing a forest fire near Gelendzhik is an additional environmental consequence of the ongoing deep strike campaign. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Debris and Contamination: The widespread damage and fires in Kyiv from falling missile/drone debris and impacts carry risks of air pollution and hazardous material exposure for emergency responders and civilians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF:
  • Air/Missile Operations: RF is conducting a massive, multi-domain air campaign involving approximately 80 UAVs, ballistic missiles (Iskander-M) from northern (Bryansk, Voronezh Oblasts) and southern vectors, targeting Kyiv Oblast (Vyshhorod Raion), Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, Kolomyia, Starokostiantyniv, Bila Tserkva, and now Confirmed Kh-101 cruise missiles entering via Sumy/Chernihiv and moving towards Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, and back towards Kyiv and Vasylkiv. The current attack on Kyiv involved multiple ballistic missiles, multiple waves of UAVs, with a MiG-31K (Kinzhal carrier) active, and confirmed Kh-101 launches. KMA also reports use of "decoys" and "Gerber." A new UAV threat has prompted another air alert in Kyiv, with one UAV heading for Boryspil. Operativni ZSU confirms attacks on two Dnipropetrovsk districts. Colonelcassad confirms railway node strikes in Vinnytsia and Poltava Oblasts, with damage at Koziatyn. RF MoD also claims that night strikes hit enemy railway logistics. Kotsnews also published a map showing trajectories of "shaheds and rockets" in Ukraine. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ground Forces (Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia/Western LNR): RF forces continue coordinated reconnaissance-strike operations, effectively using UAVs for target acquisition and precision-guided artillery (Krasnopol-M2) to destroy UAF fortified positions in Donetsk. RF also claims successful artillery strikes on UAF defensive positions in Zaporizhzhia, with 4 injured in Polohy and Zaporizhzhia districts. RF claims Kyiv has intensified attacks in Western LNR, indicating a possible defensive reaction or pre-emptive shaping operation by RF. TASS claims RF advanced 3km near Sredneye and entrenched near Shandrygolovo in DPR. "Операция Z" claims advances in Zaporizhzhia (Plavni liberated, Primorskoye entered, Stepnogorsk assaulted). TASS (Marochko) claims RF advanced 1km towards Stavky DPR and broke into UAF defenses near Kolodyazi. TASS (from RF MoD) claims a FAB-250 strike on a 155th Separate Mechanized Brigade temporary deployment point near Krasnoarmiysk. Воин DV claims destruction of UAF infantry and an M113 APC in the Vremevsky direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Security/Air Defense: RF claims to have repelled drone attacks in Rostov Oblast. The evacuation of 89 people due to UAV fragments in Rostov Oblast, and temporary flight restrictions in Kazan and Samara (though now lifted), indicate active internal air defense and security measures are being stressed and adapting to ongoing UAF deep strikes. RF MoD claims 102 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Russian regions overnight, including 3 in Sevastopol, according to "Операция Z". TASS also promotes new Russian EW system "KVERTOP-K-12700" at an exhibition, potentially signaling efforts to improve counter-UAV capabilities. TASS reports a 200 sq. meter forest fire in Gelendzhik due to falling UAV debris. ASTRA confirms UAV attack on Kryazh railway station in Samara Oblast, causing 3 train cancellations and 10 delays. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Information Operations: TASS continues to promote domestic social narratives and attempts to elevate the political significance of a potential Putin-Trump meeting. TASS is also pushing content on an American professor (Mearsheimer) being added to "Myrotvorets" to discredit Ukrainian institutions. TASS also reports a poll supporting a ban on state service for "relocants" (Russians who left the country), aiming to reinforce loyalty. "НгП раZVедка" is rapidly propagating immediate, often exaggerated claims of successful strikes on Kyiv and Koziatyn, attempting to undermine confidence in UAF air defenses and threatening Kinzhal strikes, and also attempting to shift blame for damage to civilian infrastructure onto UAF air defense. "НгП раZVедка" also explicitly states "We will polish them with cruise missiles" after reporting on the initial Kyiv attacks. Colonelcassad is promoting thermobaric strikes in Kharkiv and features footage of an RF sniper, and also shares video of a destroyed Leopard in Pokrovsk. "Операция Z" is disseminating reports of Hungary suing the EU Council and promoting its channel in national messenger MAX. Colonelcassad is also sharing video/photo materials attempting to demonstrate extensive damage in Kyiv, likely aiming to amplify RF perceived success, and explicitly blaming UAF air defense for a hit on a building in Kyiv, speculating it was NASAMS. TASS claims RF forces "cleared 3 km near Sredneye and entrenched themselves in a forest belt near Shandrygolovo DPR." TASS claims that UAF leadership has removed the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade from the Sumy direction due to heavy losses from RF missile strikes, including commanders. TASS also attempts to discredit UAF by claiming UAF forces held mobilized personnel in pits for weeks in Kharkiv Oblast. TASS promotes a narrative from a lawyer claiming Colombian mercenaries were promised up to $3,000/month for fighting against RF. TASS uses domestic messaging about "risks of falsification and simplification" in history, likely preparing ground for further revisionist narratives. TASS reports Italy is considering sending sappers to Ukraine. TASS reports on Putin's visit to Beijing, claiming it signifies RF and PRC's resolve to defend WWII outcomes, and also reports Kim Jong Un and Narendra Modi will attend the Beijing event. RF channels are promoting images and videos of fire in Kyiv following the strikes, some with watermarks "Труха", and images/videos of alleged Russian military operations. WarGonzo boasts of a "record number of ballistic missiles" in the Kyiv attack. Fighterbomber posts about "iconic flight gear" and a leather satchel, a clear attempt to divert attention from current combat operations. TASS also features a video discussing new heavy aircraft engines (PD-8, PD-14), attempting to project Russian technological prowess. TASS also reports on proposals for increased maternal capital payments, a domestic social policy. TASS reports a German magazine released a coin in honor of Vladimir Putin, attempting to elevate his international image. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posts content claiming "NATO drones transferred to Ukraine were useless," a clear disinformation effort. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF:
  • Air Defense Posture: UAF maintains a high state of air defense readiness, actively tracking and reporting incoming UAVs, ballistic missiles, and now confirmed Kinzhal/Kh-101 missiles across multiple oblasts, including new trajectories towards Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, and critically, a group now heading for Kyiv. Air defense is confirmed active in Kyiv, with initial reports of engagement and multiple explosions. The air raid alert for Kyiv was lifted but has been re-declared due to a new UAV threat, with one UAV heading for Boryspil. Interceptions confirmed in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. In Cherkasy Oblast, one missile was shot down and 15 UAVs neutralized. The Command of the Southern Defense Forces provides updated operational information for 08:00 on 28.08.2025. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Deep Strike Operations: Evidence of strikes on Petrov Val railway station (Volgograd Oblast) and Afipsky/Novokuibyshevsky oil refineries (Krasnodar Krai / Samara Oblast) indicates UAF or pro-Ukrainian forces continue to conduct effective deep strike/sabotage operations against RF logistics and energy infrastructure. Operativni ZSU provides video confirming significant fires at these refineries. Ukrainian channels continue to share videos of burning RF oil refineries. ASTRA confirms the attack on Kryazh railway station in Samara Oblast. STERNENKO confirms and provides extensive evidence for the strikes on Kuybyshevsky and Afipsky refineries by the 14th Separate Regiment. Commandant SBS Madjar reports a "4.7% reduction in oil refining in the swamps." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Ground Forces: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (via ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 and Оперативний ЗСУ) reports RF combat losses for the last 24 hours, including 880 personnel. Rybar's analysis indicates Ukrainian counter-attacks and advances near Pokrovsk. UAF units (e.g., Desantno-shturmovi viyska ZS Ukrainy) are disseminating content alleging RF marines are "minusing their own soldiers," aiming to degrade RF morale. Head of Kharkiv Regional State Administration, Oleh Syniehubov, reports 7 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were attacked in the past day. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Emergency Response: Rapid deployment of aviation for firefighting and establishment of aid headquarters in Kyiv demonstrates effective C2 and coordination for emergency and civilian response efforts. Rescue workers are making titanic efforts at impact sites in Kyiv, extracting people from rubble. President Zelenskyy's statements confirm the ongoing efforts to clear rubble. KMA confirms 45 injured in Kyiv and states aid headquarters have been deployed in affected districts. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Border Control: Heightened border control measures at the Lviv Oblast border (Rava-Ruska) restricting exit for young men (18-22) suggest ongoing mobilization efforts or preventative measures against illegal border crossings. RBC-Ukraine and Operativni ZSU now confirm that Ukraine has started allowing men aged 18-22 to leave the country. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Information Operations: "Повітряні Сили ЗС України", "КМВА", and "РБК-Україна" continue to provide critical, timely public alerts regarding aerial threats and initial damage reports, including confirmed increased casualties (now 8 fatalities and over 45 injured, including one child) and specific impacts in Kyiv. RBC Ukraine also reports that aviation is involved in extinguishing fires in Kyiv. KMA is organizing aid headquarters in affected districts. President Zelenskyy has condemned the attacks, increasing the casualty count, and has called on China and Hungary to react. "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" and "STERNENKO" are rapidly reporting on the successful UAF deep strikes on RF oil refineries while condemning RF attacks on Ukrainian cities and highlighting the human cost. Ukrainian channels (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦) are providing extensive photo and video evidence of damage to civilian infrastructure in Kyiv, including apartment buildings, and confirming casualties, actively countering RF narratives of targeting military objects. Ukrainian channels highlight the discovery of a hedgehog near the ruins in Darnitskyi district, Kyiv, to emphasize the humanitarian impact. UAF General Staff summary at 08:00 also provides an overview of enemy losses. The Coordination Staff for POW issues posts about a meeting with families of the 35th Separate Marine Brigade, demonstrating support for service members and their families. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Capabilities:
  • Large-Scale, Coordinated Multi-Domain Air Attack with Expanded Munition Set, Lethality, and Deception: RF has demonstrated the capability to conduct simultaneous mass UAV and ballistic missile (Iskander-M) attacks from multiple directions, across wide geographic areas, now further enhanced by the confirmed active presence and probable launch of a MiG-31K (Kinzhal carrier), confirmed Kh-101 cruise missile launches from strategic aviation (Tu-95), and the use of "decoys" and "Gerber" (false targets). This represents a highly complex, multi-layered attack designed to overwhelm and bypass UAF air defenses. The increased casualty count (8 fatalities, over 45 injured, including one child) and extensive damage underscore the lethality and indiscriminate nature. The immediate follow-on UAV threat to Kyiv demonstrates sustained capability. WarGonzo's claim of a "record number of ballistic missiles" highlights this escalated capability from the RF perspective. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Precision Reconnaissance-Strike Complex (Confirmed Ground Ops): RF maintains the capability to effectively integrate UAVs (Orlan-30) for reconnaissance and target designation with precision-guided artillery (Krasnopol-M2) to accurately destroy UAF fixed positions in Donetsk. Video evidence from TASS confirms RF ability to use 2S1 Gvozdika howitzers for striking UAF defensive positions in Zaporizhzhia. The alleged destruction of a Leopard tank in Pokrovsk (Kotsnews) points to continued RF anti-armor capabilities, potentially involving long-range ATGM or artillery. TASS also claims FAB-250 use against a UAF brigade HQ, indicating continued glide bomb capabilities. Воин DV claims destruction of UAF infantry and an M113 APC. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Internal Air Defense (Stressed): RF claims to have shot down 102 Ukrainian UAVs overnight, demonstrating a robust, though stressed, internal air defense capability. However, confirmed UAV debris causing forest fires (Gelendzhik) and railway delays (Volgograd, Samara) highlights continued vulnerabilities to saturation or advanced UAF platforms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Intentions:
  • Overwhelm UAF Air Defenses and Degrade Critical Infrastructure/Military Targets (Strategic) and Civilian Morale (Psychological) with Maximum Impact and Deception: The primary intention of the current large-scale, multi-layered air campaign is to inflict maximum damage on Ukraine's energy and other critical infrastructure (including railway depots and power grid), disrupt military command and control, deplete UAF air defense munitions, and exert severe psychological pressure on the civilian population, particularly in Kyiv. The confirmed 8 fatalities and over 45 injured (including one child) in Kyiv indicate an intent to maximize terror and psychological impact on the civilian population. Targeting the capital region with a full spectrum of air assets suggests an intent to expand psychological pressure and identify new vulnerabilities. The confirmed strikes on civilian buildings (kindergarten, residential buildings, educational facility, office building, shopping center, civilian train depot), an enterprise, and numerous vehicles in Kyiv suggest either deliberate targeting to maximize terror, or indiscriminate targeting as a result of a highly complex and saturation attack, which now includes deception tactics. Targeting high-speed train depots and railway junctions (Koziatyn) suggests an intent to disrupt public transportation, economic activity, and military logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Maintain Ground Pressure and Attrition (Operational/Tactical): RF intends to continue relentless ground offensive pressure, particularly in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia, using precision fires and reconnaissance to degrade UAF strongholds and facilitate localized advances, as evidenced by claimed advances near Sredneye and Shandrygolovo, and new claims of advances near Plavni, Primorskoye, and Stepnogorsk. New claims of advances near Kolodyazi and Stavky DPR indicate a continued focus on achieving localized gains in the Donetsk sector. The strike on the 155th Brigade HQ indicates a direct attempt to degrade UAF ground force C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Shape Information Environment (Cognitive): RF intends to boost domestic morale, project military strength, distract from the human and material costs of the conflict, and justify actions in occupied territories. RF's immediate propaganda claims of successful "massive" strikes in Kyiv and Koziatyn are intended to amplify fear and sow doubt about UAF air defense effectiveness, and to immediately blame UAF air defense for any civilian damage. New efforts to highlight potential high-level diplomatic engagements (Putin-Trump) and Russian-Chinese cooperation (Putin in Beijing, Kim Jong Un, Modi attendance) are intended to project RF as a significant global player. The targeting of a respected US academic (Mearsheimer) on "Myrotvorets" is intended to discredit Ukrainian institutions. The TASS poll on "relocants" aims to reinforce loyalty and penalize dissent. Claims of UAF troop withdrawals and poor treatment of mobilized personnel aim to degrade UAF morale and effectiveness. Promotion of the "intellectual pilot assistant" and new engine development suggests an attempt to project technological advancement. Zelenskyy's call for China and Hungary to react to child fatalities directly challenges RF's information operations by highlighting the moral impact of their actions. RF is also attempting to discredit NATO aid by claiming drones are "useless." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Courses of Action (COA) Currently Observed:
  • Coordinated Multi-Vector, Multi-Munition Air Assault with Deception: RF is employing a highly coordinated air assault using ballistic missiles (Iskander-M), Shahed UAVs, confirmed high-value assets like Kinzhal and Kh-101 missiles, and "decoys"/"Gerber." This aims to overwhelm UAF air defenses through saturation, varied threat profiles, and deception. The ongoing nature of the attack, with subsequent UAV alerts, confirms this COA. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Targeting Critical Infrastructure and Railways (Expanded Civilian Impact): The reported damage to railway infrastructure (Intercity+ train depot, Kryazh railway station, Koziatyn railway junction) and power outages in Vinnytsia Oblast, the repeat strike on Petrov Val railway station, and confirmed impacts on civilian residential buildings, a kindergarten, an educational institution, an office building, a shopping center, and numerous vehicles in Kyiv, with increased casualties, confirm RF's ongoing intent to disrupt Ukrainian logistics and energy supply, and maximize psychological impact. The attack on an enterprise in Zaporizhzhia further highlights this intent. RF MoD also specifically claims night strikes on railway logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.2. Recent tactical changes or adaptations

• Sustained and Escalated Full-Spectrum Air Attack on Kyiv with Confirmed Advanced Missiles, Deception Munitions, and Increased Lethality: The most significant adaptation is the rapid, sustained escalation to include confirmed Kinzhal (from MiG-31K) and Kh-101 (from Tu-95) missiles in the current, prolonged attack on Kyiv and other regions, in addition to ballistic missiles, UAVs, and new reports of "decoys" and "Gerber" munitions. This demonstrates RF's willingness to commit its most advanced and scarce long-range strike assets against the capital and other key targets, representing a major increase in the complexity and danger of the air campaign. The tragic increase in civilian fatalities (8) and injuries (over 45, including one child) is a critical adaptation in the lethality and humanitarian impact of these strikes, indicating a more indiscriminate or terror-focused approach. The inclusion of "decoys" signals a deliberate attempt to expend UAF air defense munitions and overwhelm tracking systems. The immediate re-issuance of a UAV air alert for Kyiv highlights the sustained and relentless nature of this adaptation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Targeting of Civilian Railway Infrastructure (Intercity+ depot, Kryazh station, Koziatyn junction): The confirmed strike on a passenger train depot, and now the additional confirmation of a UAV attack on Kryazh railway station in Samara Oblast causing significant delays and cancellations, and the claimed strike on Koziatyn railway junction, represents a significant and new adaptation in RF targeting, moving beyond general railway nodes to directly impact civilian transportation infrastructure and military logistics. This is likely intended to maximize disruption and psychological impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Expanded Geographic Scope of Air Campaign (Confirmed and Sustained): The confirmed targeting of Kolomyia (Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast), Starokostiantyniv, Bila Tserkva, and newly identified trajectories of Kh-101s towards Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, and now Khmelnytskyi Oblasts represents a significant geographical expansion of the RF multi-domain air campaign into western and central Ukraine. The power outages in Vinnytsia Oblast and confirmed UAV attacks on critical infrastructure in Vinnytsia and Khmelnytskyi confirm the impact of this expansion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Deliberate/Indiscriminate Targeting of Civilian Infrastructure in Kyiv Resulting in High Casualties: The confirmed strikes on a kindergarten, residential buildings (including Nova Anglia complex, Lukianivka), a training institution, an office building, a shopping center, and numerous civilian vehicles in Kyiv, resulting in 8 fatalities and over 45 injuries, indicate either a deliberate targeting of civilian areas to maximize terror, or a significant lack of precision, or indiscriminate targeting. The direct testimony of Kyiv residents stating two impacts on a residential building (Kharkivske Shosse 56) further supports the deliberate targeting of civilian areas. Videos from multiple Ukrainian channels and President Zelenskyy confirm extensive damage to residential buildings and high civilian casualties, including a direct missile hit on a residential building. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Persistent Counter-UAF Deep Strike Disinformation and Allied Discord Attempts, with New Domestic Narrative: RF channels are immediately attempting to shift blame for civilian casualties and damage in Kyiv to UAF air defense. New TASS narratives attempt to frame potential high-level diplomatic engagements as globally significant, and to discredit Ukrainian institutions. A new domestic propaganda push to ban "relocants" from state service aims to reinforce loyalty. TASS also disseminates new claims regarding UAF troop losses and poor treatment of mobilized soldiers. TASS is also promoting a narrative about Colombian mercenaries fighting against RF and emphasizing the risks of "falsification" in history, possibly a pre-emptive measure against counter-narratives. RF is attempting to project technological strength (new aircraft engines) and positive domestic policy (maternal capital). RF is also attempting to elevate Putin's international image (German magazine coin) and undermine NATO aid by claiming drones are "useless." Zelenskyy's direct appeal to China and Hungary to react to child fatalities is a significant counter-narrative. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Industrial Sector Concerns: TASS reporting on proposals to compensate businesses for drone defense suggests an increasing recognition of the internal UAV threat and its economic implications for RF's industrial sector. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
• RF Internal Political Scandals: The new TASS report on the former vice-governor of Samara Oblast, Gendin, facing another criminal case, indicates internal political vulnerabilities or a wider crackdown. (LOW CONFIDENCE)
• Relaxation of UAF Border Crossing Rules for 18-22 Year Old Males: Ukraine's decision to allow males aged 18-22 to leave the country is a significant internal adaptation, likely balancing mobilization needs with human rights considerations and potentially reducing illegal border crossings. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.3. Logistics and sustainment status

• RF Munitions Production/Availability (Sustained): The ability to launch such a large-scale, complex, and sustained air attack, including multiple advanced missile types, suggests RF maintains substantial production and/or acquisition capacity for these high-value munitions, despite previous intelligence suggesting depletion. This volume and diversity indicates a significant commitment of resources to this offensive. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Energy/Logistics Vulnerabilities (Confirmed and Exploited): The confirmed successful UAV attacks on the Afipsky and Novokuibyshevsky oil refineries, in addition to the repeat strike on Petrov Val railway station and the new train delays and cancellations in Samara Oblast due to a UAV attack on Kryazh railway station, and the reported 4.7% reduction in oil refining, demonstrate significant and increasing vulnerabilities in RF's internal energy and logistics infrastructure to UAF deep strike capabilities. These are high-value targets, and the scale of the fires suggests substantial impact. The continued sharing of videos of burning refineries by Ukrainian channels indicates a desire to highlight these successes and their impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Air Defense for Internal Territory (Stressed): RF claims of shooting down 102 UAVs highlight a substantial number of attempted UAF deep strikes. While most are claimed intercepted, the confirmed fall of UAV fragments causing a forest fire (Gelendzhik) and railway delays (Volgograd, Samara), combined with temporary flight restrictions, indicates that RF internal air defenses are stressed and not fully impenetrable. The TASS report on businesses seeking drone defense compensation further underscores this internal vulnerability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.4. Command and control effectiveness

• RF Coordinated Multi-Domain Strikes (Highly Effective): The simultaneous, multi-vector, and prolonged nature of the UAV and ballistic missile attacks across a wider geographic area, now compounded by confirmed Kinzhal and Kh-101 strikes on Kyiv and other oblasts, with new coordinated trajectories, and the use of "decoys"/"Gerber" munitions, demonstrates highly effective, centralized command and control for complex multi-domain operations and deception tactics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Tactical C2: The successful reconnaissance-strike mission near Pleshcheyevka and the claimed artillery strikes in Zaporizhzhia (resulting in casualties) indicate robust C2 integration between RF intelligence assets (UAVs) and artillery units. Claims of 3km advances near Sredneye and Shandrygolovo, and new claims of advances in Zaporizhzhia, and new claims of advances near Kolodyazi and Stavky DPR, also imply effective tactical command. The claimed strike on a UAF brigade HQ near Krasnoarmiysk also demonstrates effective targeting C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF Agile Air Defense C2 (Severely Stressed but Resilient): UAF Air Force's rapid issuance of alerts for both UAVs, ballistic missiles, and now confirmed Kinzhal and Kh-101 missiles across multiple oblasts, including new threats to Kyiv (with a UAV heading for Boryspil), and reports of "decoys" and "Gerber," indicates an agile and responsive C2 system for air defense. However, the sustained and complex nature of the attack, with its increased number and diversity of threats, including deception munitions, is now severely stressing this system and its resources. The continuing movement of cruise missile groups across multiple oblasts necessitates constant, rapid adaptation of air defense posture. The lifting of the air alert in Kyiv, followed by an immediate re-declaration due to a new UAV threat, further illustrates the dynamic and demanding nature of this operational environment and UAF's responsive C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF Emergency Response C2 (Highly Effective): The rapid deployment of aviation for firefighting, the establishment of aid headquarters, and the titanic efforts of rescue workers in Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk demonstrate highly effective C2 and coordination for emergency and civilian response efforts. President Zelenskyy's statements confirming ongoing rubble clearing further attest to this, as does KMA's confirmation of aid headquarters and 45 injured. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

• Ukrainian force posture and readiness: UAF maintains a high state of air defense readiness across northern, central, and now western regions under active multi-domain attack, particularly in Kyiv where air defense is engaged against ballistic missiles, UAVs, Kinzhal, and Kh-101 missiles, and also contending with "decoys" and "Gerber." Ground forces continue to hold defensive lines in critical sectors while also conducting deep strike operations and localized counter-attacks (Pokrovsk). Border control measures have been adapted to allow certain males to exit, balancing security with other considerations. Firefighting aviation has been deployed in Kyiv to combat widespread fires, demonstrating a rapid civilian emergency response capability. KMA is actively establishing aid headquarters. Rescue workers are engaged in "titanic efforts" at impact sites in Kyiv, extracting people from rubble. President Zelenskyy's statements highlight the ongoing efforts. The Coordination Staff for POWs continues its support for service members' families. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Recent tactical successes or setbacks:
  • Successes: UAF air defense is actively tracking and reporting incoming threats, providing timely public warnings and engaging targets over Kyiv, Khmelnytskyi Oblast, and Cherkasy Oblast (one missile, 15 UAVs neutralized). UAF or pro-Ukrainian deep strike operations continue to successfully target RF logistics (Petrov Val railway station, Kryazh railway station in Samara Oblast causing significant train disruptions) and, significantly, RF critical energy infrastructure (Afipsky and Novokuibyshevsky oil refineries, causing major fires confirmed by multiple sources and with video evidence). The immediate aerial threat to Kyiv was cleared, though a new UAV threat has emerged, prompting another alert. The General Staff reports 880 RF personnel eliminated in the last 24 hours. The situation in Kryvyi Rih is controlled. Rybar's analysis shows UAF counter-attacks and advances near Pokrovsk. Ukraine has started allowing men aged 18-22 to leave the country. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Setbacks: RF has launched an unprecedented, large-scale combined UAV, ballistic missile, Kinzhal, and Kh-101 attack, now also including "decoys"/"Gerber" and with a renewed focus on Kyiv. This has resulted in significant damage to critical infrastructure, including a kindergarten, a training institution, an office building, a shopping center, residential buildings (including Nova Anglia, Lukianivka) in Kyiv, and tragically, at least 8 confirmed civilian fatalities and over 45 casualties, including one child. Numerous private vehicles have also been destroyed or damaged in Kyiv. The strike on the Intercity+ train depot and Koziatyn railway junction represents a new targeting setback for civilian and military infrastructure. Power outages in Vinnytsia Oblast affect 60,000 people. 4 injured in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Attacks confirmed in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. 7 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast were attacked. The expanded targeting to Kolomyia, Starokostiantyniv, Bila Tserkva, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, and Khmelnytskyi represents a new and broader challenge to UAF's air defense architecture across Ukraine. Kotsnews reports a destroyed Leopard tank in Pokrovsk. An M113 APC was also claimed destroyed in the Vremevsky direction. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Resource requirements and constraints: The current multi-domain air campaign, involving a large number of UAVs, ballistic missiles, Kinzhal, and Kh-101 across expanded vectors, including repeated ballistic and cruise missile strikes and high-value missile threats on Kyiv, and the use of "decoys"/"Gerber," necessitates urgent and continuous replenishment of all air defense munitions. This is especially critical for mobile systems to counter Shahed-type drones, and for higher-tier systems to intercept ballistic missiles and Kinzhals (which are exceedingly difficult to intercept) and Kh-101s. The ability to counter precision artillery (Krasnopol-M2) and RF tactical aviation remains a critical requirement. The expanded geographical scope into western and central Ukraine will further strain existing air defense assets, requiring rapid reallocation and potentially exposing other areas. The immediate need for search and rescue operations, medical aid, and extensive firefighting efforts in Kyiv and other affected areas will strain civilian emergency services and local resources. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

• Propaganda and disinformation campaigns:
  • RF Domestic/External: TASS is pushing non-military, domestic content to divert public attention and now attempts to elevate the political significance of a potential Putin-Trump meeting. TASS is also working to discredit Ukrainian institutions by highlighting the "Myrotvorets" listing of US academic John Mearsheimer. TASS also reports a poll supporting a ban on state service for "relocants." "НгП раZVедка" is immediately claiming a "massive Iskander strike" on Kyiv and success in Koziatyn, attempting to amplify the perceived effectiveness of RF strikes, sowing panic, and eroding confidence in UAF air defenses. Crucially, RF channels (e.g., "НгП раZVедка", Colonelcassad, WarGonzo) are immediately attempting to attribute civilian damage in Kyiv to UAF air defense activity (e.g., "ПеПеО ушатало ещё одну многобудку в Позняках") to deflect blame and sow mistrust in UAF capabilities, intensifying this narrative with the rising civilian casualties. Colonelcassad explicitly suggests a NASAMS missile hit a building in Kyiv. TASS is also claiming the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade has been withdrawn from Sumy due to heavy losses and that UAF is mistreating mobilized soldiers in Kharkiv. TASS also disseminates new claims regarding RF advances in Zaporizhzhia (Plavni, Primorskoye, Stepnogorsk) and Donetsk (Kolodyazi, Stavky). TASS also attempts to discredit UAF by reporting claims of Colombian mercenaries being promised money to fight against RF. TASS's comments on the "falsification of history" serve as a meta-narrative to potentially dismiss any uncomfortable historical truths or counter-narratives. TASS highlights Putin's visit to Beijing as a sign of RF-PRC resolve regarding WWII outcomes, and now notes Kim Jong Un and Narendra Modi will attend. TASS reports Italy is considering sending sappers to Ukraine, likely to gauge Western intentions. TASS also promotes Russian aviation engine development and domestic social programs (maternal capital) to project a positive internal image. TASS also promotes a German magazine coin honoring Putin to enhance his international image. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 promotes a narrative that NATO drones sent to Ukraine are "useless," aiming to undermine Western support. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • UAF: "Повітряні Сили ЗС України", "КМВА", and "РБК-Україна" continue to provide critical, timely threat alerts, and are now sharing immediate, confirmed reports of damage, tragically increased casualties (now 8 fatalities and over 45 injured, including one child), and specific impacts in Kyiv, including the Nova Anglia complex and Lukianivka. RBC Ukraine also reports the deployment of aviation for firefighting efforts. President Zelenskyy has condemned the attacks, increasing the casualty count, and has called on China and Hungary to react, emphasizing the moral imperative of responding to child fatalities. "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS", "Оперативний ЗСУ", and "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" are rapidly reporting on the successful UAF deep strikes on RF oil refineries while also highlighting the severity of RF attacks on civilian targets in Kyiv and the human cost, providing extensive visual evidence. UAF General Staff is also providing daily updates on RF losses, including the 880 personnel eliminated in the last 24 hours. UAF channels highlight the rescue of a hedgehog from the ruins in Kyiv, a symbolic representation of the humanitarian cost. RBC-Ukraine and Operativni ZSU report on the new policy allowing 18-22 year old males to leave Ukraine, a measure of transparency. The Coordination Staff for POWs highlights support for service members' families. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • RF Internal Dissent: A video from "Два майора" shows a protest in St. Petersburg with law enforcement interacting with protestors holding a poster, suggesting ongoing, albeit suppressed, internal dissent related to the conflict. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Public sentiment and morale factors: The large-scale, multi-domain air attacks, particularly those targeting the Kyiv region with a full spectrum of RF missile capabilities (ballistic, confirmed Kinzhal, Kh-101, decoys/Gerber) and resulting in confirmed impacts on residential buildings (including Nova Anglia), an educational facility, an office building, a shopping center, and tragically, 8 confirmed civilian fatalities and over 45 casualties, including one child, will inevitably strain public morale. The repeated ballistic and cruise missile attacks on Kyiv, resulting in impacts and medical calls, will significantly test public resilience in the capital. Transparent communication from UAF authorities regarding air defense actions, damage, and repair efforts is paramount. RF propaganda aims to instill fear and project strength, and its multi-pronged information efforts must be actively countered, especially the attempts to blame UAF for civilian damage, which is a malicious and dangerous narrative in light of civilian deaths. The visual evidence of widespread damage and casualties in Kyiv, shared by Ukrainian channels, will reinforce public resolve but also necessitate strong support systems. Zelenskyy's direct appeal to China and Hungary aims to rally international support and underscore the moral severity of the attacks to a global audience, which can also bolster domestic morale. The new policy allowing 18-22 year old males to leave Ukraine may alleviate some domestic pressure related to mobilization. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• International support and diplomatic developments: RF's efforts to divert attention through sensational international news (e.g., Hungary vs. EU), newly to project diplomatic influence by framing potential high-level US-RF meetings as historically significant, and discrediting Ukrainian institutions via "Myrotvorets" listings, and now reinforce loyalty through domestic polls, may attempt to diminish the focus on Ukraine. The ongoing military actions, particularly the intensified air campaign and its expansion to western/central Ukraine and the commitment of high-value Kinzhal/Kh-101 assets and deception munitions, will likely prompt renewed calls for increased international military aid, especially advanced air defense systems capable of intercepting these sophisticated threats. UAF deep strikes on RF oil refineries and railway nodes demonstrate an ongoing capability to strike RF critical infrastructure, which will likely generate further debate and discussion among international partners regarding the implications for escalation and the need to bolster Ukrainian offensive capabilities. The RF proposal to compensate businesses for drone defense highlights an internal economic cost of the conflict which allies can exploit. TASS reporting on Italy considering sending sappers indicates ongoing international discussion about support for Ukraine, including demining operations. President Zelenskyy's call for China and Hungary to react directly to the child fatalities could pressure these nations to distance themselves from RF's actions or offer humanitarian aid, shifting the diplomatic narrative. The reported attendance of Kim Jong Un and Narendra Modi at the Beijing event, along with Putin, could be used by RF to project a powerful anti-Western bloc, but also presents an opportunity for Ukraine and allies to lobby these nations on the humanitarian crisis. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

• MLCOA 1: Continued and Sustained Complex Multi-Domain Air Campaign with Full-Spectrum Munitions, Deception, and Civilian Targeting (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF will continue to launch successive, coordinated waves of Shahed-type UAVs, ballistic missiles (Iskander-M), and utilize Kinzhal and Kh-101 cruise missiles, along with "decoys" and "Gerber," to further deplete UAF air defense munitions, cause widespread, cascading disruptions to critical infrastructure (energy, railway depots), and degrade UAF military capabilities. The focus will remain on Kyiv and central/northern Ukraine, with continued probing of western oblasts to test defenses and identify new vulnerabilities, and to force broader UAF air defense deployment. The intent is to maintain pressure, force UAF to expend high-value interceptors, and exert psychological pressure through attacks on civilian infrastructure, aiming to increase casualties and terror. This includes continued targeting of civilian residential areas, educational facilities, office buildings, shopping centers, and vehicles, increasing the likelihood of civilian casualties and societal disruption. This will also include continued targeting of railway infrastructure, as evidenced by the Koziatyn strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• MLCOA 2: Intensified Ground Assaults in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia with Integrated Fires (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF forces will maintain relentless ground offensive pressure on the Pokrovsk and Avdiivka axes, heavily supported by UAV-guided precision artillery (Krasnopol-M2) and glide bombs, aiming for localized territorial gains and further degradation of UAF defensive lines, consolidating claimed advances. RF will also continue artillery and UAV operations in Zaporizhzhia, targeting enterprises and defensive positions, and aiming to inflict casualties, and attempting to consolidate claimed advances in areas like Plavni and Primorskoye. The reported use of TOS systems in Kharkiv indicates a willingness to employ devastating, area-effect weapons to clear UAF positions. New claims of advances near Kolodyazi and Stavky DPR suggest these areas will see continued RF pressure. RF will likely continue to target UAF tactical HQs/deployment points with glide bombs, as seen at Krasnoarmiysk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• MLCOA 3: Persistent and Diversified Information Operations (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF information channels will persist in amplifying sensationalist international news, promoting their tactical successes and claims of strikes against Ukrainian targets, pushing narratives of humanitarian engagement and internal stability, and actively discrediting Ukraine and its allies to distract from ongoing aggression and shape domestic and international perceptions. This includes highlighting judicial actions in occupied territories to project control and immediately claiming exaggerated success for current strikes to demoralize the Ukrainian population. A key aspect will be continued and intensified efforts to blame UAF air defense for civilian damage and casualties in Kyiv and other cities, despite clear evidence of RF targeting. TASS will continue to use narratives of RF's global diplomatic significance (Putin-Trump, Putin-Kim-Modi in Beijing) to bolster domestic morale and to attempt to discredit Ukrainian institutions, and use domestic polls to reinforce internal loyalty. RF will also continue to propagate claims of UAF troop losses and withdrawals, and poor treatment of mobilized personnel, and promote narratives of mercenaries fighting against RF. RF will leverage diplomatic events such as Putin's visit to Beijing to project strength and international support. RF will actively attempt to counter President Zelenskyy's calls for international reaction to child fatalities, and will continue to discredit Western military aid by claiming it is "useless." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

• MDCOA 1: Focused Strategic Strike on Kyiv C2/Government Hubs with Massed Kinzhal/Ballistic Missiles and Deception (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF conducts a highly coordinated, large-scale ballistic missile and Kinzhal strike, augmented by a higher volume of "decoys," specifically targeting key UAF command and control centers, government facilities, or major military installations within Kyiv, aiming to severely disrupt leadership, operational effectiveness, and create a significant psychological shock. The current multi-layered attack on Kyiv, including confirmed Kinzhal and Kh-101 presence and confirmed civilian impacts, along with "decoys," could be a prelude or an attempt to soften defenses for such a strike, exploiting any confusion. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• MDCOA 2: Strategic Cyber-Kinetic Attack on National Grid Coupled with Sabotage (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): RF executes a highly coordinated cyberattack specifically targeting Ukraine's energy grid SCADA systems, synchronized with physical UAV/missile strikes across multiple vectors (including new western routes and military-critical nodes), and potentially supported by internal sabotage cells, aiming to cause a widespread, prolonged national grid collapse, particularly as winter approaches. The previous attack on an enterprise in Zaporizhzhia and power outages in Vinnytsia indicate a continued focus on such targets. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
• MDCOA 3: Tactical Breakthrough in Donetsk with Massed Armor and Air Support (LOW CONFIDENCE): RF commits substantial reserves of armored forces to achieve a rapid, localized breakthrough on a key Donetsk axis, attempting to exploit UAF defensive vulnerabilities or air defense saturation to create a significant operational advantage, potentially supported by limited, high-value air support if UAF air defenses are sufficiently suppressed. (LOW CONFIDENCE)

5.3. Timeline estimates and decision points

• Next 0-6 Hours (IMMEDIATE): The immediate, intense phase of multi-domain air attacks on Kyiv has seen a brief all-clear, but a new UAV threat has prompted another air alert, indicating the persistence of the aerial campaign. Emergency services are actively engaged in Kyiv, with aviation deployed for firefighting, and aid headquarters being established, indicating the scale of the damage. Expect continued search and rescue operations, initial damage assessments, and an active air defense posture against the new UAV threat, particularly for Boryspil. Decision Point: UAF must maintain heightened vigilance, continue rapid response and recovery efforts in Kyiv and other affected oblasts, and immediately re-engage air defense assets against the new UAV threat. Medical and emergency services must continue mass casualty protocols and fire suppression efforts, prioritizing rescue of those under rubble. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Next 24-48 Hours: Continued RF aerial attacks and ground pressure in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. Intelligence efforts to assess the full scope of damage from current strikes, particularly in Kyiv (with a detailed accounting of casualties, now 8 fatalities and over 45 injured, including one child, and damage to residential buildings/vehicles/office/shopping center/Intercity+ depot/Koziatyn railway junction, kindergarten, training institution), Vinnytsia (power outages, critical infrastructure), Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, and Khmelnytskyi, will be critical, as will the impact of UAF deep strikes on RF logistics (Petrov Val, Samara railway, Kryazh railway station) and, crucially, the Afipsky and Novokuibyshevsky oil refineries (with emphasis on the ongoing nature of the Novokuibyshevsky fire and reported 4.7% reduction in oil refining). Decision Point: UAF must conduct rapid Battle Damage Assessments (BDAs) for all strikes, especially in Kyiv and Koziatyn, and prioritize repair efforts for damaged critical infrastructure (power grid, railway). International partners must expedite delivery of advanced air defense munitions and long-range counter-air systems, especially those capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, Kinzhals, and cruise missiles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Next 72 Hours - 1 Week: RF will continue to assess the effectiveness of its multi-domain air campaign and adapt tactics, potentially responding to the oil refinery strikes. UAF deep strike operations will likely persist. Information warfare will remain highly active, with RF amplifying narratives of civilian damage caused by UAF air defense, and promoting internal stability/technological advances. Decision Point: UAF and its allies must maintain a unified information front, actively countering RF propaganda, particularly sophisticated disinformation efforts attempting to erode Western unity and portray leaders as ineffective, and specifically addressing the false narrative that UAF air defense causes civilian damage, especially in light of the confirmed child fatality and injuries, and damage to residential areas. Review internal border control policies regarding exit for young men to balance security with public sentiment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

1. Full BDA of Current RF Mass Air Campaign on Kyiv and Western/Central Ukraine (Specific Impacts, Casualties, and Effects): Comprehensive Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for all new RF UAV/ballistic missile/Kinzhal/Kh-101 strikes, including specific critical infrastructure targets hit in Kyiv (Shevchenkivskyi, Darnytskyi, Dniprovskyi, Solomianskyi, Holosiivskyi, Obolonskyi districts, Nova Anglia residential complex, Lukianivka area), detailed confirmation of kindergarten, training institution, residential building (including Holosiivskyi), office building, shopping center, Intercity+ train depot, and extensive vehicle impacts, precise count and demographics of all casualties (fatalities and injured, especially children - now 8 fatalities, over 45 injured, including one child), military targets affected, projected repair timelines, and cascading effects on civilian services and military capabilities. This is particularly critical for understanding the full impact of the multi-missile ballistic and cruise missile strikes on the capital, damage from falling debris on residential buildings, and newly targeted western/central regions (Starokostiantyniv, Bila Tserkva, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Vasylkiv, Boryspil), and detailed assessment of attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Kharkiv Oblast (7 settlements). (CRITICAL)
2. Kinzhal Missile Launch, Target, and Impact Confirmation and Effectiveness: Confirmation of Kinzhal launch from the MiG-31K, its exact trajectory, intended target, and impact location/effectiveness. Assessment of UAF air defense performance against this specific threat, and verification of KMA reports of Kinzhal use. (CRITICAL)
3. Kh-101 Cruise Missile Trajectory and Target Confirmation: Detailed trajectory analysis for confirmed Kh-101 launches, number of missiles, specific targets engaged, and effectiveness, particularly for those heading towards Kyiv, Vasylkiv, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Starokostiantyniv, Poltava, Cherkasy, and Kirovohrad Oblasts, and specific confirmation of target of power outages in Vinnytsia. (CRITICAL)
4. BDA of Afipsky and Novokuibyshevsky Oil Refinery Strikes and Impact of 4.7% Reduction: Detailed Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) of the UAV strikes on the Afipsky and Novokuibyshevsky oil refineries, with specific focus on the ongoing nature of the Novokuibyshevsky fire. Quantify the extent of damage, estimated production loss, and the timeline for repairs. Assess the impact on RF fuel supply to military and civilian sectors, particularly for the southern operational area, and specifically quantify the impact of the reported "4.7% reduction in oil refining." (CRITICAL)
5. Nature and Effectiveness of RF "Decoys" / "Gerber" Munitions: What specific types of "decoys" and "Gerber" munitions were used in the Kyiv attack? How effective were they in confusing UAF air defenses, and did they lead to the expenditure of high-value interceptors on non-lethal targets? What are their signatures? (HIGH)
6. RF Internal Air Defense Effectiveness and UAV Threat in Rostov/Kazan/Samara/Gelendzhik/Sevastopol: Detailed assessment of the nature and number of drones involved in the Rostov Oblast attacks and the specific means by which they were "repelled," especially considering the 89 evacuations. Assess the impact of flight restrictions in Kazan and Samara and their implications for RF air defense and internal security, especially now that they are lifted. Further BDA of the forest fire caused by UAV debris in Gelendzhik. How many of the 102 claimed shot down UAVs were confirmed? What was the nature of the 3 drones shot down in Sevastopol? What are the specific details of the railway delays and cancellations in Samara Oblast (Kryazh station)? (HIGH)
7. Iskander-M Target Specificity and Effectiveness in Kyiv (from Voronezh Oblast): Detailed assessment of the actual targets of the new Iskander-M missiles from Voronezh Oblast. Were they aimed at specific military/government C2 nodes, critical infrastructure, or were they area saturation attacks? What was the success rate of UAF air defense against this ballistic wave? (HIGH)
8. RF Claims of Advances in Donetsk (Sredneye, Shandrygolovo, Kolodyazi, Stavky) and Zaporizhzhia (Plavni, Primorskoye, Stepnogorsk) and Destroyed Leopard in Pokrovsk/M113 in Vremevsky: Independent verification of RF claims regarding a 3km advance near Sredneye and entrenchment near Shandrygolovo in DPR, and new claims of advances near Kolodyazi and Stavky DPR. Independent verification of new claims of advances in Zaporizhzhia. Independent verification of the claimed destruction of a Leopard tank in Pokrovsk, including its model and circumstances. Independent verification of the destroyed M113 APC and infantry group in the Vremevsky direction. Assess the tactical significance of these potential gains and losses. (HIGH)
9. RF Claims of Kyiv Intensified Attacks in Western LNR, 110th Brigade Losses, and Mobilized Personnel Treatment: Independent verification of RF claims regarding intensified UAF attacks in Western LNR, the withdrawal and losses of the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade from Sumy, and the alleged mistreatment of mobilized personnel in Kharkiv Oblast. What is the scale and intent of any UAF activity in this sector? Is this a genuine UAF operation or an RF information operation to justify defensive maneuvers or distract from other frontlines or to degrade UAF morale? (MEDIUM)
10. Impact of Hungarian Legal Action, New RF Diplomatic Narratives, "Relocant" Poll, and Zelenskyy's Appeals on EU/Ukraine Support: Assess the likely short-term and long-term impact of Hungary's legal challenge to the EU Council regarding frozen RF assets, combined with new RF efforts to frame high-level diplomatic engagements (e.g., Putin-Trump meetings, Putin-Kim-Modi in Beijing) as globally significant, the "Myrotvorets" listing of a US academic, the new TASS poll regarding "relocants," and Putin's visit to Beijing, on the cohesion of EU support for Ukraine and future financial aid packages, and internal RF stability. Assess the specific impact of President Zelenskyy's call for China and Hungary to react to child fatalities on their diplomatic stances. (MEDIUM)
11. Internal RF Dissent and Political Instability: Further collection on the nature and extent of internal dissent in Russia, exemplified by the St. Petersburg protest, and the RF security response. Assess the significance of the new criminal case against former Samara Oblast vice-governor Gendin for wider internal political stability. (LOW)
12. Italian Sappers to Ukraine: What is the full scope and timeline of Italy's potential deployment of sappers to Ukraine? What implications does this have for international support and demining efforts? (LOW)
13. Impact and Effectiveness of Railway Strikes on Koziatyn: Detailed BDA of the strike on Koziatyn railway junction. What specific infrastructure was damaged (tracks, rolling stock, signaling, C2)? What is the estimated duration of disruption to railway communication, and how does this affect RF and UAF logistics? (HIGH)
14. Specifics of the New Policy Allowing 18-22 Year Old Males to Leave Ukraine: Clarification of the specific conditions, eligibility criteria, and administrative procedures for men aged 18-22 to leave Ukraine. Assess the potential impact on public sentiment, mobilization efforts, and brain drain. (MEDIUM)

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Maximize Layered Air Defense for Kyiv, Central, and Strategic Assets against Full-Spectrum Threat with Deception:
   • ACTION: Immediately prioritize and surge all available mobile air defense assets, including MANPADS, to Kyiv, Boryspil, Brovary, Starokostiantyniv, Bila Tserkva, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, and Vasylkiv districts to counter the ongoing, complex ballistic missile, UAV, Kinzhal, Kh-101 attacks, and mitigate the effect of "decoys" and "Gerber." Establish forward-deployed observer posts and rapid response teams. Maintain readiness against persistent UAV threats to Kyiv and Boryspil, as confirmed by KMA.
   • ACTION: Urgently redeploy existing higher-tier air defense systems (e.g., Patriot, SAMP/T) or their munitions from less critical sectors to bolster Kyiv's and other strategic cities' defense against ballistic, Kinzhal, and cruise missile threats. Prioritize defense of Starokostiantyniv due to its strategic airbase significance.
   • ACTION: Task ISR assets (SIGINT, HUMINT, OSINT) to identify likely RF ballistic missile launch sites in Bryansk/Voronezh Oblasts and strategic bomber airfields/launch areas to enable pre-emptive or retaliatory strikes. Monitor MiG-31K flights and Tu-95 activity meticulously for early warning. Prioritize signature analysis for "decoys" and "Gerber" to develop countermeasures.
   • ACTION: Urgently communicate to international allies the critical need for additional higher-tier air defense systems and munitions, specifically those capable of intercepting hypersonic (Kinzhal) and advanced cruise missiles (Kh-101), emphasizing the immediate and escalating threat to the capital and the confirmed civilian impacts, including child fatalities and injuries, and damage to educational facilities, residential areas, office buildings, shopping centers, and a civilian train depot. Highlight the RF use of deception munitions.
2. Rapid Battle Damage Assessment and Emergency Response in Kyiv and Affected Oblasts:
   • ACTION: Conduct immediate and comprehensive BDAs across Kyiv's affected districts, particularly Darnytskyi, Shevchenkivskyi, Solomianskyi, Dniprovskyi, Holosiivskyi, Obolonskyi, Lukianivka, and Nova Anglia residential complex, to identify specific damage to critical infrastructure, military targets, and civilian residential buildings (including the kindergarten and training institution), office buildings, shopping centers, the Intercity+ train depot, and numerous vehicles. Prioritize emergency services and repair crews, with special emphasis on search and rescue operations for confirmed casualties (now 8 fatalities, over 45 injured), particularly children, and for those potentially remaining under rubble. Coordinate the use of aviation for effective firefighting.
   • ACTION: Enhance medical and rescue capabilities in Kyiv and affected oblasts, particularly in the districts with confirmed impacts, anticipating further casualties and damage from the ongoing attacks. Implement mass casualty protocols.
   • ACTION: Rapidly assess damage to railway infrastructure (Intercity+ depot, Koziatyn railway junction) and energy infrastructure in Vinnytsia Oblast and initiate emergency repairs to minimize disruption to logistics and civilian services. Assess damage to the enterprise in Zaporizhzhia and its impact on the local economy or military support, and provide immediate aid to the 4 injured. Assess damage in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Cherkasy Oblast (UAV/missile neutralization) and 7 affected settlements in Kharkiv Oblast.
3. Enhance Counter-Reconnaissance and Counter-Battery Fire in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv:
   • ACTION: Task ISR assets (SIGINT, drones, counter-UAV systems) to actively disrupt RF Orlan-30 operations and other reconnaissance platforms in the Donetsk direction (Pleshcheyevka area, Sredneye, Shandrygolovo, Kolodyazi, Stavky), Zaporizhzhia (Plavni, Primorskoye, Stepnogorsk, Novoselekova area), and Kharkiv Oblast.
   • ACTION: Prioritize targeting of RF 152mm howitzers (Msta-B) and 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzers and their ammunition depots within range of the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia axes, particularly those identified using Krasnopol-M2 munitions, to degrade their precision strike capability.
   • ACTION: Monitor for and actively suppress RF TOS systems in Kharkiv and other frontline areas to mitigate their devastating effect on UAF positions.
   • ACTION: Conduct immediate BDA for the claimed Leopard tank destruction near Pokrovsk and M113 APC in Vremevsky direction to understand the specific threat and refine anti-armor TTPs. Prioritize identifying and targeting RF FAB-250 launch platforms and munition depots.
4. Sustain and Expand Deep Strike Operations Against RF Logistics and Infrastructure:
   • ACTION: Based on the confirmed repeat success of the Petrov Val railway strike and the significant impacts on Afipsky and Novokuibyshevsky oil refineries, and the new attack on Kryazh railway station, identify and prosecute new vulnerable nodes in RF's railway, logistics, and, crucially, energy (oil refining) network, particularly in regions used for supplying frontline forces, to continue disrupting RF sustainment efforts and internal economic stability. Exploit the ongoing nature of fires, such as in Novokuibyshevsk, with persistent strikes if feasible. Continue to target oil refining capacity, building on the reported 4.7% reduction.
   • ACTION: Exploit intelligence gaps related to RF internal airspace (Volgograd, Rostov, Kazan, Samara, Gelendzhik, Sevastopol) to identify potential new targets or vulnerabilities for long-range UAV operations and to assess the effectiveness of previous UAF deep strikes, despite the lifting of official restrictions in some areas and RF claims of repelling attacks.
5. Counter RF Information Warfare and Maintain Public Trust:
   • ACTION: Issue immediate, transparent, and accurate public communications regarding the attacks on Kyiv, UAF air defense actions, and damage assessments, explicitly rebutting RF propaganda (e.g., claims of no air defense, massive success, "Kinzhal threats," false claims of UAF attacks in LNR, WarGonzo's boast of "record ballistic missiles," Colonelcassad's claims of NASAMS hitting a building). Crucially, actively counter RF disinformation that attempts to blame UAF air defense for civilian damage and casualties (now 8 fatalities, over 45 injured, including one child), providing clear evidence of RF targeting, especially in light of the confirmed child fatality and injuries and damage to residential areas, office buildings, shopping centers, a train depot, and vehicles. Highlight the deliberate and indiscriminate nature of RF targeting and its use of deception munitions. Address RF claims regarding the 110th Brigade and treatment of mobilized personnel with factual rebuttals, and counter claims of RF advances in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk, as well as the Leopard and M113 destruction. Highlight RF internal dissent shown by protests. Counter RF narratives claiming "useless" NATO drones.
   • ACTION: Amplify President Zelenskyy's calls for China and Hungary to react to the child fatalities, leveraging this moral argument to generate international pressure and influence diplomatic positions.
   • ACTION: Transparently communicate the new policy regarding men aged 18-22 leaving Ukraine, explaining the rationale and procedures to manage public sentiment and avoid misinterpretation.
   • ACTION: Develop and disseminate counter-narratives to the RF propaganda regarding Hungary's lawsuit, and to new RF narratives attempting to frame potential high-level diplomatic engagements (e.g., Putin-Trump meetings, Putin-Kim-Modi in Beijing) as globally significant, and the discrediting of Ukrainian institutions via "Myrotvorets" listings, and the poll regarding "relocants," and Putin's visit to Beijing, emphasizing the broader unity of international support for Ukraine and the legality of using frozen RF assets for reconstruction. Counter the narrative about Colombian mercenaries fighting against RF, if possible, with verified information.

END REPORT